10* Ole Miss (6:00 ET): Going against St. Joe's didn't prove to be fruitful on Friday afternoon, but I'm going back to the well here on Sunday. The Hawks covered more games (24) than any other team in the country last year, but have lost a lot of talent since then. There's also the simple "law of averages" at play here, which says they simply won't be as profitable here in 2016-17. But after failing to cover the season opener (won by 1 over Toledo), I give them credit for posting double digit wins over Columbia and Loyola Chicago. But now it's time for what is clearly the stiffest test yet, that being a date w/ fellow 3-0 team Ole Miss. I like the Rebels to come through Sunday evening in the Virgin Islands.

While Mississippi is 3-0 SU, they are also 0-3 ATS. All three wins thus far have been by seven points or less. That largest MOV of 7 pts also happened to come in an overtime game, their last time out, against Oral Roberts. So because of all the close calls, we're now getting a better than expected value. Note that the Rebels still average 90.3 points per game! Obviously then, you'd like to see them tighten the defense up. But when you have Miami (FL) transfer DeAndre Burnett pouring in 41 pts (like he did vs. Oral Roberts, who needs defense? Also, it's not like Andy Kennedy's team is playing that bad of defense, they just play at a fast pace. No opponent has shot better than 47.7%, at least overall.  Oral Roberts was able to stay in the game by shooting a somewhat ridiculous 11 of 19 from the three-point line and 15 of 16 from the FT line. 

St. Joe's shot 55.2% against Columbia, but other than that they haven't been so hot from the floor. They really benefited from Loyola only getting to the free throw line 12 times on Friday and missing 21 of 27 three-point attempts. Their two best players from last year - DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles - both departed. One returning player (Pierfrancesco Oliva) is already out for the year and another - James Demery - is dealing with a foot injury and will be out 2-3 weeks. I'm not coming off what I said two days ago and that's St. Joe's is fade material right now. 10* Ole Miss

8* CS Northridge (11:00 ET): Both Northern Illinois and CS-Northridge have played three games. The former is 3-0 while the latter is 1-2. But as is so often the case, records can be misleading. Northern Illinois has yet to leave DeKalb and has played three very weak opponents (Indiana St, Roosevelt, Idaho). Meanwhile, CS-Northridge comes off road dates vs. UCLA and Stanford, neither of which you'd expect them to win (were double digit dogs both times out). Here though, the Matadors are a slight favorite at home and I think a great value. NIU hasn't shot well in either of its two wins over D-I teams. This is also a revenge spot for CSN. Lay the points. 

Last year, in DeKalb, Northern Illinois beat CS Northridge 83-71 as 9.5-pt dogs. We touched on NIU's relatively poor shooting this year, but let's revisit the shooting numbers from this matchup last year, shall we? The Mastadons actually outshot the Huskies from the floor (47.3% to 44.4%), but three-pointers were huge as were free throws for the eventual winner. NIU was 11-24 from behind the arc while CSN was 4-12. Meanwhile, from the charity stripe, CSN actually missed more than they made and they had 31 attempts. Talk about a lot of missed opportunities in a game lost by single digits. For the record, NIU was 24 of 34 on its free throw attempts.

True road games have seen Northern Illinois go just 7-21 SU the previous two seasons (2-8 ATS L10). They are also 9-23 SU as an underdog the L2 years. The 14-point win over Idaho on Wednesday was a bit misleading in the sense that the game was tied at halftime and the Vandals shot only 32% from the floor. Also, NIU had a massive 25-9 edge at the free throw line. This is a good spot for the host Matadors to get back on track. 8* CS Northridge

8* Loyola Chicago (12:30 ET): I'm looking to go against St. Joe's here simply because the Hawks owe the books some money. What do I mean by that? Well, last year saw them finish w/ one of the best ATS records in the country (24-11). In fact, no team covered MORE games. Earlier this week, recall we faded another team that was quite profitable last year (IPFW) and they were blown out. Here we can grab points at a neutral location (Virgin Islands) w/ a team that has already won three times this year. That would be Loyola Chicago, who has predictably dominated three overmatched foes by an average of 37.4 points per game. Meanwhile, St. Joe's was lucky to escape Toledo in the opener before a hot shooting night enabled them to get by Columbia.

There hasn't been a game yet where Loyola has failed to shoot better than 50% from the floor while holding the opponent under 37%. Of course, Alcorn State, Indiana-Northwest and Eurkea is a real "rogue's gallery."  But dominating those teams is what was expected from the Ramblers and exactly what they delivered. In the past, this team has taken advantage of getting the points as in a 22-12 ATS record the L2 seasons as an underdog. While picked to finish near the bottom of the Missouri Valley, this is already the best start for the program since '97.  The three big wins have given this team some confidence. Remember they nearly upset Wichita State in the MWC Tourney last year. Milton Doyle (16.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is a great player and a couple of key transfers have made this roster much better than we've seen in past years.

As for St. Joe's, they are by no means as strong as last year's 28-8 SU squad. Their two best players - DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles - both departed. One returning player (Pierfrancesco Oliva) is already out for the year and another - James Demery - is dealing with a foot injury and listed as questionable here. We saw the Hawks struggle in the opener - at home - against Toledo. That was a game they trailed most of the first half and never led by more than four points. They won't shoot as well here in the Virgin Islands as they did vs. Columbia. 8* Loyola Chicago

10* Elon (7:00 ET): This line has skyrocketed, but may have reached it apex. Regardless, I would bet ASAP. To the casual observer, this seems like a curious game to experience such a significant line move. However, USF is still w/o Jahmal McMurray, who is expected to be suspended for the first six games of the year for an "undisclosed violation." This is a significant loss for the Bulls. McMurray was their top returning scorer from a year ago (15.2 PPG). At times, he was the only reliable offensive option for a team that would finish 8-25 SU overall. An 84-73 win over non-lined Florida A&M does little to dissuade me that USF is going to be in a lot of trouble w/o their best player. Lay the points here.

Elon College, who comes by way of the Colonial, and is off a wild 100-95 loss to Charlotte Monday where they were 4.5-pt home favorites. No the game did not into overtime. While overall shooting was actually in favor of the Phoenix, what ultimately undid them was the three-point line. Charlotte shot a preposterous 10 of 14 from three-point range. Elon took nearly twice as many three-point shots (26), but made one less. I can't stress enough how rare it is to see a team go 10 of 14 from three-point range. South Florida certainly won't, that's for sure. Furthermore, the FT line hurt Elon on Monday as well. They were only 18 of 26 from the charity stripe while Charlotte went 22 of 26. Considering they scored 100 pts in their season opener (vs. lightly regarded William Peace), I don't think the Phoenix will have much trouble scoring here. 

These schools have never met before. Look for Elon's Steven Santa Ana to be the difference maker here. He went for 32 points in the last game and made five three-pointers. As far as the price range goes, Elon is 10-3 ATS as a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points, including 2-0 the L3 seasons. USF is 6-18 ATS as a home dog in that same range, including 0-4 the L3 seasons. Bottom line is that the oddsmakers made this line way too low and will pay for it. 10* Elon

8* Illinois State (7:00 ET): Unless you're a real college basketball die-hard (like me!), then you are probably unaware that IPFW was one of the best ATS teams in the nation last year. The Mastadons were an impressive 21-8 at the betting window, the best such record for any team that played more than seven lined games. True to form, they covered in this year's season opener at Arkansas. As 15-pt road underdogs, they lost 92-83. They've since played another game, which was not lined, and beat Kenyon College 117-60. That's a meaningless result. Tonight, they visit Normal, IL and I feel the result will be "anything but normal" for IPFW, at least as far as the pointspread is concerned as the number is way too small. Lay the points.

Illinois State dropped its season opener, as a two-point road favorite at Murray State. It was a back and forth game throughout w/ things not decided until a GW three-pointer was made w/ 1.5 seconds remaining. Note that the biggest lead in the game - eight points - was held by ISU. The Redbirds also led by seven w/ 3:23 remaining. So it was a tough loss. A big problem is that while they shot at roughly the same percentage as Murray State from three-point range, the Racers made twice as many. That's an 18-point edge right there, which is tough to overcome on the road. Murray State is also a good team, certainly better than IPFW. It speaks volumes that ISU was favored on the road against them. 

IPFW will not shoot better than 60% again like they did vs. Kenyon. Note they shot just 36.2% against Arkansas. Illinois State is 24-8 SU its L32 home games. They have also won 28 of the last 37 times (straight up) they have been favored. With the number so short here, I like the Redbirds to win and cover. 8* Illinois State

8* LSU (8:00 ET): This will be my second time going w/ LSU in this young season. Given my record, you should already have concluded that the first went well. It did as they beat up on Wofford, 91-69 as only a seven-point choice. Now, they face another team off a high scoring Opening Night win, that being Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles come off a 101-96 victory, but that was with double overtime and against a team named "Tougaloo," a NAIA school. Win or not, that result is certainly not a good sign when stepping up in class from a NAIA opponent to one from the SEC. Meanwhile, this is probably a DROP in class for LSU. Lay the points.

Little defense was played in that USM-Tougaloo matchup. How do I know? Well, look no further than the box score which reveals that the Golden Eagles shot 56.7% from the floor, including 7 of 14 from three-point range. I don't see a duplication of those numbers tonight, in fact, I see a massive dropoff. Unfortunately, that coincides with a worrisome USM defense which permitted a NAIA school to shoot better than 50% - on the road. Speaking of the road, it has not been kind to USM in recent years, particularly in this price game. The team is just 3-25 SU in true road games the L3 seasons not to mention 0 for its last 42 as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points.

LSU, on the other hand, is 26-7 SU its L33 home games including nine straight victories as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. They are 47-2 L49 at -12.5 or higher in Baton Rouge. Two years ago, they downed Southern Miss by 20 here (were 17-point favorites). Just to rehash from my analysis Friday: though it is by no means "addition by subtraction," I think this team will be better off this year w/o Ben Simmons, who often struggled to integrate himself into the flow of the offense. Another positive in that the Tigers won't be consistently overvalued. Remember, at one point last season, they were 9-3 SU in SEC play!  8* LSU

10* LaSalle (7:00 ET): Similar to yday's play on Nevada, we will use fairly "worthless" results to our advantage in handicapping this game. Delaware is 2-0 SU, but one of those wins came at the expense of something called "Goldey-Beacom." The Blue Hens did, and I give them credit here, upset Bradley their last time out as eight-point underdogs. Yet they're even more significant dogs for tonight's trip to Philly as they take on LaSalle. This despite the host Explorers being off an outright loss (were -2.5) at cross-town rival Temple Friday. That was an overtime game for the record. Given Temple just lost last night at home to New Hampshire, one might seek to conclude that this seems like a "real steal" to take the points. But the oddsmakers clearly aren't buying it and nor am I.

Had the results discussed above not unfolded they way they did, one has to wonder what this line would have been. I think LaSalle should be commended for still getting to 92 points despite shooting only 42.3% against Temple, including 9 of 28 from three-point range. I think that it's more than reasonable to expect the Explorers to shoot better tonight in their own gym. Yes, overtime aided them in getting to 92 points, but scoring 81 in regulation is "nothing to sneeze at." This is a relatively deep team now, with two freshman starting. Ten different players saw action Friday and all of them have started at one point or another in their careers.

Though they're 2-0, I see Delaware really struggling to keep pace in this one. They've scored just 64 and 63 points in their two wins and beat a D-II school by just eight points. They've shot no better than LaSalle to this point and have actually been worse from three-point range (27.6%). So you can see that one team obviously plays at a much faster pace. A key to the Blue Hens success so far has been atrocious shooting from their opponents. Both Goldey-Beacom and Bradley shot 32% from the field. Sure, the Delaware defense needs to be credited there, but only to a point. LaSalle will shoot better, play faster and is simply the Blue Hens' most talented opponent yet. I expect a blowout here, so lay the points. 10* LaSalle

8* Nevada (10:00 ET): Both teams here already have a game played under their respective belts. Given the pointspread for tonight's matchup, you might be surprised to learn how those first games each went. Then again, considering Loyola Marymount's opponent was something named "Vanguard University" (NAIA school), I think it goes w/o saying that a win there was all but assured. But just to show how little that result meant, the Lions are still sizable underdogs to Nevada here despite the Wolfpack taking it on the chin in their opener (at St. Mary's). We'll use these results to our advantage here as I believe the home team to be significantly undervalued as a result. Lay the points.

There are some wild shooting numbers to report on from each team's game on Friday. LMU saw Vanguard University shoot a preposterously low 23.2% from the floor (16-69) including 1 of 18 from three-point range. Those Lions (also Vanguard's nickname) had no "roar" whatsoever as they shot an unconscionable 5 of 35 after halftime and finished w/ only 17 pts in the second half! Needless to say, when LMU jumped out to a 20-2 lead, the game was basically over. But let's not make any conclusions that LMU is significantly better than we thought because of that result, which was a glorified exhibition game. This team is being picked to finish near the bottom of the West Coast Conference and is outside the Top 200 in most reputable power rankings systems.

Nevada ran into one of the top WCC teams Friday night, that being St. Mary's, who shot 60 percent from the floor en route to an 81-63 victory. I don't know what it is about the Gaels and early season home games, but they always seem to shoot ridiculously well in them. Keep in mind that St. Mary's opened the year ranked #17 in the country, so this is a massive drop in class for the Wolfpack. I have seen this team projected for as high as a third place finish in the Mountain West this year. Loyola Marymount was very bad defensively last year (allowed 74.8 PPG) and beat only ONE top 150 RPI team all year, that being Pepperdine in double OT.  Home team rolls in this one. 8* Nevada

8* Rice (2:00 ET): This little school in Dallas, TX was quite kind to me on Saturday as the football team (had just 1 game all season) went to Charlotte as 10.5-pt underdogs and won outright, a ~SIGNATURE~ 10* ULTIMATE POWER release! Now, I'll look to back the school's basketball program as they look to erase the memory of a bankroll busting campaign last season. The Owls finished 2015-16 at 7-18-2 ATS, which was the worst pointspread record in the country of any team that played at least 10 games. But they were only outscored by an average of 4.7 PPG. I'll make the case that it will be a nice little bounce back season for Mike Rhoades' team. Take the points.

James Madison is the opponent for Rice on Sunday and the Dukes have already played a game. They lost it, 62-55, at Old Dominion. JMU did not shoot the ball well from any range, going just 39.6% overall, including 6 for 30 from three-point range. They also didn't help themselves the few times they got to the free throw line, going only 7 of 13 there. JMU actually led (by one) at the half, but allowed the first basket of the second half and trailed the rest of the way. Looking at the preseason CAA projections, the Dukes are a team expected to finish in the middle of the pack and remember that league isn't as strong as it once was. You may recall they went 21-11 SU a year ago, good for third in the league. But they were one and done in the conference tournament. Playing for a second time in three days, though it's early in the season, I don't think does this team any favors.

Like JMU, Rice returns four starters from LY. Most notable is Marcus Evans, who led all freshman last year by averaging 21.4 points per game! Evans will be the best player on the floor Sunday afternoon. Not much is expected from the Owls this year (picked for 9th in C-USA), but I think they will exceed those low expectations. The problem for them last season was on the defensive end as they gave up 80.5 PPG, one of the worst marks in the entire country. There's just no way they don't see a decrease in that average. As we saw in their opener, JMU isn't a strong offensive team and they're just 13-27-1 ATS L41 home games. 8* Rice

8* LSU (2:00 ET): Last year, LSU was a massive bust at the betting window. Among teams that played more than seven lined games, they had one of the worst ATS records in the country at 11-20-1. That included a poor start to the year w/ an 0-5 (ATS) November. The issue was that they were overvalued because of Ben Simmons, who has now moved on to the NBA. Granted, the Tigers were not a bad team; they finished 19-14 SU and at one point were 9-3 SU in SEC play. But a bad finish, which culminated in an embarrassing 71-38 loss to Texas A&M in the conference tourney was "all she wrote." The team may not be better per se this year, but there is definitely more value in taking them at the window. Lay the points here.

Wofford, who we've seen in the NCAA Tournament before, also comes in off a down year. They went 15-17 SU overall and finished 4-10 SU in non-conference play. This year, the Terriers are projected to finish third (I've seen as low as fifth) in the Southern Conference where everyone is chasing incumbent Chattanooga. Last year's leading scorer, Spencer Collins, graduated and that leaves some big shoes to fill. This will a young team this year w/ as many as six freshman possibly being asked to contribute. We saw last night w/ our play against Harvard what relying on so many young players can look like this early in the season.

Call me crazy, but I think LSU may come together better than expected w/o Simmons. At times last year, it appeared as if the team did not understand how to utilize its superstar properly. Either they were too reliant, or didn't go to him nearly enough. I think that the coaching staff will have a real emphasis on starting the season strong consider the hole that was dug last year. Antonio Blakeney will be one of the top players in the SEC this year. Wofford is only 11-19 ATS in road games the last two seasons and as an underdog they are 7-13 SU/3-17 ATS. 8* LSU

8* Stanford (11:00 ET): The Cardinal have moved on from Johnny Dawkins. Last year's 15-15 SU (11-15-1 ATS) finish was the "straw that broke the camel's back." In steps former UAB head man Jerod Haase, who helped that program improve its win total each of the four years he was there. By no means is the cupboard bare here in Palo Alto for Haase. He'll inherit four returning starters from LY's team as well as 10 of the top 11 scorers. So there is no reason to believe this team won't improve here in 2016.

This game, it should be noted, takes place in China. Harvard has brought in a strong recruiting class and figures to be the favorite in the Ivy League under HC Tommy Amaker. However, the Crimson have largely been a bust when priced as the underdog. Over the last two seasons, they've won just 4 of 17 games in that role. The line is really short here, it should be pointed out. Stanford is 29-8 SU as a favorite the L3 seasons. Theyve also won 21 of the last 28 non-conference games.

Robert Cartwright is a name to pay attention to here. The Stanford PG missed all of last season due to a fractured right arm. Him handling the ball should be a big difference maker. Also, remember that this team won the NIT two years ago. It's not that they were a bad team last year; they simply undeperformed under Dawkins. I have them undervalued coming into this year and will gladly lay the points in this opener. 8* Stanford

10* Villanova (9:20 ET):  And we're down to two.  Those two, Villanova and North Carolina both steamrolled their way into Monday's Title Game w/ the former producing the largest margin of victory in Final Four history (my *10* NCAA Game of the Year). Curiously, the "lookahead" line for this particular matchup had UNC -1.5, so I'm surprised to see a bigger number here, especially because I consider Villanova to be the better team.  Remember that the Wildcats have already ousted what was the tourney favorite (Kansas) and there other four wins have come by an average of 29 points per game.  UNC has won all five of its matchups by double digits, but the key here will be a 'Nova defense that's allowing just 60.6 PPG in the Tournament going against a Tar Heels squad that struggles to shoot from the outside.  I'm on the underdog here and would not be shocked at an outright upset. Take the points.

While both teams have been equally impressive in their respective runs to tonight's Title Game, Villanova has clearly faced a harder slate of opponents. They've gone against Iowa, Miami, Kansas and Oklahoma, all of whom spent significant time in the Top 15 this year.  Look at whom UNC has faced and you'll realize that they've been a bit "lucky" as really Indiana was the only perceived threat among the group of opponents.  They were favored by at least 9.5 in every other game and got to take on a six seed in the Elite 8 and then a seven seed in the Final Four. Meanwhile, Nova benefited from no such upsets, save for (I guess) facing a 2-seed in the Final Four.  In my analysis for that Nova-Oklahoma matchup, I made mention of the Wildcats' incredible ATS mark vs. non-conference teams, which has now reached 31-12 L43 (13-4 this season). Overall, Nova is 66-37 ATS in all games the L3 seasons.

The fact that Villanova is allowing just 60.6 PPG in the Tournament (especially considering the list of those opponents) is just as impressive as the fact they're averaging 84.8 (at 1.31 per possession).  Keep in mind they just held Kansas and Oklahoma, both of whom averaged over 80 PPG, to just 59 and 51 points respectively.  What's keeping this team undervalued is all the past NCAA Tournament failures, but that's all "water under the bridge" now.  I have them rated as the better of the two teams here, so naturally I'm all over them as a dog.  10* Villanova

8* Under Villanova/North Carolina (9:20 ET): Clearly, these two teams didn't get the memo about any kind of "stadium effect" NRG in Houston is supposed to have as they shot extraordinarily well in blowout wins Saturday.  In fact, Villanova was an absolutely otherworldly 71.4% from the field in their 44-point win over Oklahoma (my *10* Game of the Year), which was the second highest shooting percentage in any Final Four game in history.  Without question, they will not be shooting as well as they did Saturday here.  North Carolina went 53.8% against Syracuse's zone, but that includes an equally ridiculous 31 of 48 on two-point attempts, which also isn't going to be duplicated.  I assume you can see where I'm going here and that is Under the total.

I'd like to reiterate the history of poor shooting that has taken place here in Houston's NRG Stadium in tournaments past.  The venue has hosted a Final Four previously and that was in 2011 where none of the games saw more than 132 total points scored, including a Championship Game where the two teams involved (UConn and Butler) combined for just 94 points and a dreadful 10 of 44 shooting from three-point range.  This was also the site of last year's South Regional and again the results were disastrous for the offenses as they averaged only 124.5 PPG while the Under went 3-0 (by a combined 43.5 points). Teams shot less than 40 percent overall from the field and 26.7% from three-point range!  Now, both of these teams were unaffected Saturday, but the history must be respected. Plus, both games still barely went Over the total, only doing so in the final minute.

North Carolina is not a good three-point shooting team, in fact, they are quite terrible.  They opened the game vs. Syracuse by missing their first 10 attempts from behind the arc and while they finished 4 of 17, they shoot at just a 31.3% clip outside of Chapel Hill for the season.  Villanova is giving up just 60.6 PPG in the Tournament and held Kansas and Oklahoma (both of whom averaged more than 80 PPG) to a total of 110 pts.  The offensive efficiency won't be as high in this game as it was on Saturday and it should be noted that we're getting a higher number to work with here compared to either national semifinal.  8* Villanova/North Carolina

8* Syracuse (8:45 ET): Some were surprised that the Orange didn't open as double digit underdogs for this National Semifinal vs. still-heavily favored North Carolina, but I for one was not as there hasn't been a double digit spread in any Final Four game in the last 15 years. For the record, I think the underdog is actually a little undervalued heading into this one as this will be their third "crack" at the Tar Heels and with double revenge on their mind, they're a strong play plus the points. Question the inclusion of Jim Boeheim's team among the field of 68 all you want, but the fact is that they have played remarkably well for more than 80% of the total game time (did fall behind Virginia before stunning rally) since the Tournament got underway.  Also, Syracuse is a perfect 10-0 ATS the L10 times it has taken the court with five or six days rest, including 3-0 this season.  Take the points.

Looking at the two meetings from the regular season, both won by North Carolina, the final margins were 11 and 5 points. Both games featured terrible three-point shooting from each side and given this rubber match takes place in Houston's NRG Stadium, I'd expect that trend to continue.  The key to the Tar Heels' 84-73 victory at the Carrier Dome back on January 9th was that they shot 29 of 45 on two-point attempts, which won't be duplicated here, as that was Boeheim's first game back from his well-publicized suspension.  Points off turnovers were also huge for UNC (in both games) as they averaged 16.5 per game. But be aware that Syracuse has turned the ball over 10 times or fewer in each of the last three games.  They did not turn the ball over once (in 32 possessions) in the second half vs. Virginia, who is a much better defensive team than North Carolina.

The 62 points Syracuse allowed to Virginia in Sunday's Elite 8 matchup was the most they've given up in any tournament game thus far.  North Carolina has the benefit of having previously taken on the Boeheim zone twice this year, but Virginia had also previously faced them and came up with a lower-scoring effort the second time around.  The Tar Heels, similarly, saw a decrease in offensive production from the first meeting to the second and it only stands to reason that the third will see yet another decrease.  While the final scores seem to all indicate that UNC has had an easy time this tournament, only the game vs. Indiana was really a blowout from wire to wire and it needs to be reiterated that they have yet to face a truly great, or even good, defensive team. Syracuse has gone against three top 25 opponents in defensive efficiency so far (plus Middle Tennessee) while the most efficient defense UNC has seen to this point would be Providence, who was 27th (all others were 74th or lower!).  I look for this to be a tight game.  8* Syracuse

10* Under Syracuse/North Carolina (8:45 ET): I correctly projected both of these teams Elite 8 games to go Over the total. With North Carolina, which was the bigger Over bet against Notre Dame, it seemed fairly safe as the Tar Heels were coming off a 101-point effort against Indiana and facing the worst non-16 seed in the entire Tournament  at defending the three-point line .  It was a high number (closed 153.5) but was on pace to go Over basically throughout. As for Syracuse, well, the Over seemed pretty "dead in the water" after a really slow start vs. Virginia, but somehow the Orange were able to forge a monster second-half rally, not only continuing their own improbable march to Houston, but also resulting in the game going Over with relative ease. Of note is that it was the most total points scored in any Syracuse game this Tournament (130). The total has to be higher here because of who the opponent is, but in my opinion the number is far "too slanted" in the Tar Heels direction. Take the Under.

Any discussion of the total for either of Saturday's games must center around the venue, that being Houston's cavernous NRG Stadium, which simply put has been "death to shooting" in past NCAA Tournaments.  The venue has hosted a Final Four previously and that was in 2011 where none of the games saw more than 132 total points scored, including a Championship Game where the two teams involved (UConn and Butler) combined for just 94 points and a dreadful 10 of 44 shooting from three-point range.  This was also the site of last year's South Regional and again the results were disastrous for the offenses as they averaged only 124.5 PPG while the Under went 3-0 (by a combined 43.5 points). Teams shot less than 40 percent overall from the field and 26.7% from three-point range!  That makes the Under now 5-1 the L6 tourney games played here w/ the only Over cashing by one-half point. 

Neither of these teams are that great at shooting the ball to begin with, particularly North Carolina when it comes to three-point range as the Tar Heels are only 32.1% for the year from behind the arc.  In two games vs. the Syracuse zone, they are a hideous 9 of 41.  Note that they have been at 33 percent or below in three of four tournament games to this point (were 55% vs. Indiana).  Of course, Syracuse was not much better in either regular season matchup vs. UNC, connecting on only 14 of 51 three-point attempts.  While the Virginia game represented one of the lower totals for any Orange game this season, this one resides on the high end of the spectrum, though both regular season matchups vs. UNC were higher (Under was 1-1). Still though, the Under is 11-2 the L13 Syracuse games where the total is between 140 and 149.5, including a strong 7-1 this season.  10* Under Syracuse/North Carolina

10* Villanova (6:05 ET):  Clearly, "ghosts of Tournaments past" seem to have undervalued Jay Wright's team coming into this year's edition of the Big Dance. Nova's well-publicized failure to make it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament each of the past five seasons resulted in many (myself included) skeptical of a potential Final Four run this year, especially with Tourney favorite Kansas being the 1-seed in their bracket. But Wright's Wildcats beat the Jayhawks and did so in impressive fashion, leading most of the way and allowing only 59 points in the process. While it has been Villanova's offense grabbing the headlines in this tournament (at least in the first three games), the defense has held the opposition to an average of just 63 PPG and that's while facing three of the top 24 offenses in terms of efficiency in the entire country!  They are my choice to get to Monday's Final.

Oklahoma's shooting this year has been quite remarkable. As a team, they have made almost 43 percent of their three-point attempts this season and shockingly have been slightly better than that in the Tournament despite nearly half of their total shots coming from behind the arc! Of course, they are seemingly overly dependent on one player, that being Buddy Hield, who went for 37 points (8 of 13 from 3-pt range) in the Sooners' 80-68 Elite 8 victory over Oregon that I called correctly. Of course, I was no real fan of the Ducks and also noted the Hield was coming off a sub-par effort (by his standard) and likely to have a big game there.  I do not see him nor the team shooting as well Saturday in Houston's somewhat cavernous NRG Stadium.  Note that despite all their exploits, OU has been somewhat mispriced by the oddsmakers for much of the season (just 14-20 ATS overall), especially of late (just 5-11 ATS since the start of February). Meanwhile, Villanova has been a huge money-maker the past three seasons at 65-37 ATS.  Interestingly, though more tickets have been written on the Sooners here, the line moved from -1 to -2 (even as high as -2.5 in some places) rather quickly.

While the other national semifinal is a matchup of conference foes and thus we'll obviously have regular season matchups to analyze, this too is a regular season rematch as back on December 7th Oklahoma handed Villanova its worst loss of the season, 78-55 at Pearl Harbor (Villanova was a five-point favorite there).  Nova shot a woeful 31.7% from the floor in that game (was only a six-point deficit at halftime) including a disastrous 4 for 32 from three-point range (OU was 14 of 26 from behind the arc). As you might expect, Hield had a solid game, but only scored 18 points and I think this Nova defense can contain him again and the rest of the Sooners for that matter the second go around.  The Wildcats are a remarkable 30-12 ATS their L42 non-conference games, had more "true" road wins and a better point differential during the regular season than did Oklahoma, and are more likely to be better on both ends of the court in this rematch.  Don't discount the impact free-throw shooting might have either; Nova is 95 percent the last two games from the charity stripe.  Kris Jenkins, not Hield, will be the player to watch in this game.  10* Villanova

10* Valparaiso (7:00 ET):  I've cashed George Washington now twice in their last three games and both times they were a slight underdog that (obviously) took the game straight up. First, they won on the road at Monmouth (a #1 seed in this tournament), and did so pretty convincingly, by a score of 87-71.  Then, after I actually faded them (unsuccessfully) against Florida, I was back on the Colonials bandwagon as they won their NIT semifinal matchup with San Diego State handily, 65-46 as three-point pups. But I've also taken Valparaiso in this tournament, back when they thrashed St. Mary's in the quarterfinals, 60-44 as only 3.5-point favorites. In my analysis for that matchup, I said the Crusaders were my choice to win the NIT (thought they'd be playing Florida here) and I'm not deviating from that assertion.

Valpo won its semifinal matchup by only two points, 72-70 over BYU.  But the Horizon League regular season champs have lost only six times all year, unfortunately one of those came in the Conference Tournament (in overtime) to WI-Green Bay.  They twice lost to Wright State during the regular season, once by nine points, but other than that their largest margin of defeat all season came by only six points at Oregon.  This is a really good team.  They had a 14-point halftime lead Tuesday vs. BYU, but the offense struggled in the second half and they needed a game-winner in the final seconds just to advance. That being said, the Crusaders defense ought to be commended for holding BYU, who came in averaging over 84 PPG, to just 70.  Over the course of the season, Valpo has been quite stingy (62.4 PPG allowed) which should serve them well here against a GW side that has scored 80 or more four straight times prior to the last game. 

George Washington, of course, just faced another 'stingy' D in the form of San Diego State. The Aztecs held them to only 60 points, well below the Colonials' normal scoring average, but the problem for SDSU was that they scored only 46 themselves on what was a dreadful shooting night (28.8% overall including 3 for 22 from three-point range!). I don't see those kind of offensive struggles taking place here for Valpo, who can score in its own right (75.6 PPG) and is 10-2 ATS the L3 seasons when taking the court with just one day's rest.  Something to consider here is that Valpo has the better depth and one of GW's only seven rotation players, senior guard Joe McDonald, sprained his ankle Tuesday. That could prove to be the difference right there.  10* Valparaiso

8* Nevada (9:00 ET):  This is Game 2 of the CBI Finals, a best 2 of 3 series that saw Morehead State draw "first blood" (at home) on Monday. It was a close game, however, with Nevada covering as 5.5-pt dogs (number was bet up) in an 86-83 final.  Back in Reno, I have no problem laying points with the Wolfpack, who are 14-3 SU at home this season (avg MOV = 10.2 points per game). Plus, last year was just the second time in the history of this event (dates back to 2008) where the Final did not go the full three games. The vast majority of games in the history of this best 2 out of 3 format in the CBI have been won by the home team, so I'll look for that trend to continue here & Nevada force a deciding game on Friday (which would be here in Reno as well).

Nevada actually outshot Morehead State on Monday, connecting on over 50 percent of their field goal attempts, including 7 of 16 from three-point range.  It had to be a little bit demoralizing to hold Morehead State to just 4 of 16 shooting from behind the arc, yet still give up 86 points.  Still though, I can't see the Eagles being that prolific tonight on the road where they average only 70.2 PPG for the season.  They have pulled upsets over both Siena and Ohio in this tournament, but still are only 8-9 straight up in "true" road games.  They have been a very solid bet plus the points on the road (9-2-1 ATS), but this is a pretty short number even for a team that has won 11 of its last 12. Morehead State never led by more than seven in Game 1 and there's a big difference between Nevada on the road (5-10 SU) vs. at home (14-3 SU).

As a home favorite, the Wolfpack are 11-1 SU this season. That lone loss came in the regular season finale (vs. New Mexico) as a one-point choice.  Coming off a SU loss, this team has been an excellent bet to bounce back as they are 7-4 ATS, winning by an average margin of 11.8 points per game!  On just one day's rest, they are also 3-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, winning by an average margin of 21.3 points per game.  Meanwhile, outside of games where they've gotten to enjoy at least three days rest, Morehead State is only 9-9 SU while posting a negative scoring differential. 8* Nevada

10* George Washington (9:00 ET):  The Colonials surprised me in their quarterfinal matchup vs. Florida (playing its third straight road game), winning 82-77 as a 1.5-point fave. Of course, they didn't surprise me when I took them against Monmouth and they delivered an 87-71 outright victory. Their semifinal opponent here is San Diego State, who has gotten to play all three of its NIT games to this point at home and won them all by double digits.  I concede that the fact that the Aztecs have dropped only three games since the New Year, all by five points or less, but remember that the Mountain West was historically weak this season. I have these teams rated pretty much dead even, so taking the points is the way to go.

Before this tournament got underway, San Diego State was just 7-6 SU vs. non-conference foes, clearly an inferior record when compared to GW's 11-2 mark.  In comparison to GW, SDSU's path to MSG has been easier.  That coupled with the easier conference slate has me believing that the oddsmakers have mispriced the teams in this one.  The Aztecs have been favored in every game since the start of February, which is perhaps why the oddsmakers have them laying points again here. But note they are only 13-11 ATS as chalk this year, making them basically a coinflip proposition.  Their offensive production has been way above normal here in the NIT and that's one trend that I do not expect to continue. 

GW, meanwhile, is a team known for its scoring. They average 75.9 PPG and have been at 82 points or higher in all three NIT games so far.  In fact, only once in their last six games have the Colonials not scored at least 80 pts.  That's a lot when you consider SDSU only averages 66 PPG.  Yes, the Aztecs have the edge defensively (2nd in efficiency).  But we just watched GW score 82 points against a Florida team that ranked inside the top 25 in efficiency.  Don't be surprised if free throw shooting helps decide this one as GW is an impressive 75.1% from the charity stripe while San Diego State is at just 68%.  In the end, I expect the dog to take this one outright. 10* George Washington

8* Columbia (7:00 ET):  It's come down to this for the CIT Championship, the first of FIVE tournaments to be decided this week. UC Irvine has been the road team in every game during this event, the first two (at North Dakota, LA Lafayette) being close victories and then the Anteaters caught a massive break on Sunday when Coastal Carolina's point guard was arrested the night before the semifinal matchup. Meanwhile, Columbia has enjoyed the benefit of playing all of its CIT games at home (team actually PAY to host in this event!). The Lions have won two of its three games in blowout fashion, including Sunday's semifinal vs. NJIT, 80-65 as nine-point chalk. I'm stunned to see how low the number is for the final and will gladly lay it.

Getting this game at home is a pretty big deal for the Ivy League contingent. Columbia is 17-4 SU at home this season w/ an average margin of victory of 11.2 points per game. They had little problem w/ New Jersey Tech on Sunday, jumping out to double digit lead at halftime and never really looking back.  It was the second CIT game where they broke the 80-point barrier, not to mention the sixth time they've done it in the L10 games.  This is one of the best Columbia teams in history as they've already established program highs for most overall wins in a season (24) and non-conference wins (14).  The Lions have now won 100 games in the six seasons under HC Kyle Smith.

As alluded to above, UC Irvine was a tremendous beneficiary of Coastal Carolina losing their starting point guard 24 hours before tip off.  As a result, the Chanticleers shot only 27.4% from the field. That was after the Anteaters' previous opponent (LA Lafayette) shot just 32.9%.  I find it hard to believe that Columbia will be so inept offensively in this one. This is also UC Irvine's fourth consecutive road game.  They had to do that once during the regular season, at Oregon of all places, and ended up losing that game by double digits.  This marks the first time all season that UC Irvine has won three consecutive road games. Again, their first two wins in this event came by a combined four points.  8* Columbia

8* Tennessee Tech (3:00 ET): As if there weren't enough teams getting postseason invites, we now have the Vegas 16 taking place this week over a three-day span at Mandalay Bay. Actually, it appears as if there "weren't enough teams" as despite being called "The Vegas 16," there's only eight schools competing here.  The first two are Tennessee Tech (out of the OVC) and Old Dominion (out of C-USA).  Of the two, ODU was closer to the actual NCAA Tournament as they fell to Middle Tennessee (and we know what the Blue Raiders did to Michigan State) by only two points in the C-USA Champ Game. Tennessee Tech, meanwhile, fell victim to the stunning run of 8-seed Austin Peay in their conference tournament. My take is that the number here is simply way too many points to be laying in this spot. Take the points.

This matchup will certainly be an interesting contrast of styles. Tennessee Tech is a team led by it offense as they average an impressive 78.6 points per game, which had them just outside the top 40 nationally.  But the regular season didn't end well as the Golden Eagles dropped three of five and got a bad draw in the OVC Tourney as they got the fifth seed despite finishing in a three-way tie for the second best record in the conference. (OVC is split into two divisions & division winners are guaranteed top two spots).  I have no unearthly idea how to explain what happened against Austin Peay, who scored 92 pts on 54.2% shooting led by a 37-21 game (both career highs) from Chris Horton.  One thing that's good, however, is that the Golden Eagles are 6-2 ATS this year following a SU loss.

Old Dominion is led by its defense, which gives up just 61.8 PPG.  Compared to Tennessee Tech, the Monarchs finished the year in much stronger fashion as they'd won seven in a row before the two-point loss to MTSU (game decided on free throws in closing seconds). But that works against ODU here as the win streak has only served to inflate this line to heights it should not be at.  I do not see them being able to keep pace w/ the scoring of Tennessee Tech here as the Golden Eagles should bounce back from their worst three-point shooting game of the year (vs. Austin Peay) where they went just 5 for 29.  8* Tennessee Tech

10* Coastal Carolina (9:00 ET):  The Chanticleers got a bad break with their starting point guard Shivaughn Wiggins getting arrested last night and he will not play here.  But I'm still not sure that UC Irvine deserves to be favored. The Anteaters have posted a pair of close road wins in the CIT so far, one coming in overtime. That was 89-86 over North Dakota and then came a one-point win at LA Lafayette Wednesday.  They've played one less game than Coastal Carolina in this tournament and while having the home court edge is not necessarily indicative that you're the better team (teams PAY to host in this tourney!), it is an advantage nonetheless.  Take the points with the home dog.

Coastal Carolina has played all three of their CIT games at home. They beat Mercer (65-57), New Hampshire (71-62) and then Grand Canyon (60-58).  As you can tell, these wins have been close as well and the Chanticleers needed a pretty miraculous rally to win the quarterfinal matchup with Grand Canyon (closed game on an 8-0 run).  But they were favored in all three games and are 14-3 SU here at home this season w/ an average margin of victory of 15.2 points per game.  Yes, missing their starting PG is a terrible blow, but it is one that they can still overcome.  There has been an overreaction by both the linesmakers and public for this one.

UC Irvine had to deal with the absence of 7'6" Mamadou Ndiaye in the last game and while he's been upgraded to probable here, his leg figures to still give him issues.  Though a remarkable 16-7 SU away from home this season, the Anteaters average margin of victory in those games is just 1.5 points per game.  It's pretty remarkable that they have won all nine games this year in which they have been a road favorite, but they are 0-2 ATS as a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points.   Since Thanksgiving, CCU has lost only two times by more than six points and both of those games took place on the road. 10* Coastal Carolina

10* Over Notre Dame/North Carolina (8:49 ET):  How in the world has Notre Dame made it this far?  They have trailed late in all three of their Tournament games, coming back from double digits to beat Michigan, needing a last second tip in to overcome Stephen F Austin and then closing on an 8-0 run to beat Wisconsin in the final 26 seconds (had not led previously!).  Consider that the Fighting Irish came into the Tourney having dropped three of five w/ all three losses coming by at least 18 points.  One of the two wins during that time saw them erase an 18-point deficit against Duke, a game that went to overtime. The step up in class here is big as they take on top-seeded North Carolina, who thrashed them in the ACC Tournament by a score of 78-47.  It will almost certainly be closer this time around, but rather than taking the points, I feel the Over is the much sharper play here.

Notre Dame is all offense and no defense.  Seriously. They rank 9th in the country in offensive efficiency, but are a ghastly 154th defensively.  Only six teams in this tournament are worse at defending the three-point line and collectively those six teams can be labeled as "the 16 seeds."  Playing a team that is 51st in tempo nationally, averaging 82.9 points per game on 47.9% shooting isn't likely to do wonders for those defensive numbers. At the same time, one reason that I feel the Fighting Irish are far more likely to competitive here than they were earlier this month is that they will almost certainly shoot better than the 30 percent we saw from them the last time. Even in their 80-76 win over the Tar Heels in South Bend earlier this year, the Irish were at just 34.8% from the field.  In the two games combined, they have gone 8 for 35 from three-point range.  That's going to improve here.

Going from the "snail's pace" of Wisconsin to North Carolina is a big change for Notre Dame and one that clearly will result in more scoring all-around.  UNC comes off a monster game, one where they scored 101 points in a wire to wire thrashing of Indiana.  They have scored at least 83 points in all three Tourney games and note that first round opponent Florida Gulf Coast ranks very similar to ND in terms of defensive efficiency. Both previous matchups this season did go Under, but the total here is lower, placing the value on the Over. 10* Over Notre Dame/North Carolina

8* Over Syracuse/Virginia (6:05 ET):  This is a (very) low total, so I'm not really surprised to see the Over having attracted so much early "love" (number immediately moved a few points). While many times, such a line move can lead to some value in going "the other way," in this instance I'm inclined to agree with the majority. These ACC rivals went Over against each other in the regular season, in what ended up being a 73-65 Virginia win in Charlottesville, and the number here is lower.  While the Cavaliers may not be able to match their hot shooting from that game, as I argued in my winning Over play for their game vs. Iowa State, the efficiency of their offense is greatly underrated (8th in the country).  Take the Over.

UVA comes into the Elite 8 having averaged over 80 PPG in the Tournament. That's really impressive and something not being talked about enough.  They have now shot at least 51% from the floor in six of their last seven games and are above 55% in the Tournament!  Normally, I might be inclined to call for some regression to the mean, but note the Cavs are shooting 49.3% overall for the year, including 40.3% from three-point range.  They had little difficulty in carving up Iowa State Friday as they assisted on a phenomenal 81% of their made field goals and scored 52 points in the paint.  Even by their standards, this is a low total. The lowest total all season in a UVA game was 122 points and they are 10-3 Over their L13 neutral court games when the O/U line is between 120 and 129.5 points.

Syracuse has held its three Tournament opponents thus far to an average of just 53.7 PPG and hasn't given up more than 60 in any game.  But let's also remember that they've played nothing but double digit seeds (10, 15 and 11) to this point.  This is a big step up in class for the Orange, whose 2-3 zone was carved up by Virginia in the regular season meeting to the tune of 56.8% shooting, the highest percentage allowed by a Jim Boeheim defense in four seasons. At the same time, I would expect Syracuse's own offensive number to improve here as they shot only 38.9% from the field in the regular season matchup. This could be the lowest total for any Orange game all season and the regular season saw the Over go 5-0 if the number was below 130 pts. 8* Over Syracuse/Virginia

10* Under Villanova/Kansas (8:45 ET):   Villanova's last game was an interesting one if you like offense. They absolutely dominated Miami (won 92-69 as four-point chalk) despite allowing the 'Canes to shoot 53.2% for the game (and that number was closer to 60% in the first half!). Of course, Nova's own offense was quite prolific as they shot an insane 62.7% from the field and in three tournament games they're now averaging 88 points per game on almost 60% shooting overall. After staying Under in both the Big East Championship Game (loss to Seton Hall) and their 1st round NCAA game vs. UNC Asheville, the Wildcats last two games have both soared past the total and the Over is now 10-2 their last 12 games overall. But I look for a different story to unfold here vs. Kansas.  Take the Under.

The top-seeded Jayhawks are no slouch offensively either, but their last two games have both stayed Under thanks to impressive defensive performances vs. UConn and Maryland, formidable foes.  Note that Kansas' defensive prowess is by no means limited to the Tournament as you would have to go all the way back to January to find the last time they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the floor. Incredibly, only two opponents have shot better than 45% during that time! As a result, the Under is 10-5-1 their last 16 games.  This team ranks fifth nationally in defensive efficiency, allowing just 0.92 points per possession.  Both Maryland and UConn were held to 12 points fewer than their respective season averages against KU.

Villanova happens to rank 11th in defensive efficiency, so the kind of shooting they allowed to Miami is pretty rare.  It also says something that they only gave up 69 points in the game as six straight opponents have now been held under the 70-point threshold ('Nova allows just 63.3 PPG for the season). I expect possessions to be at a premium in this one, as the stakes are so high, and Kansas is 5-1 Under as a neutral court favorite of three points or less. (Under is 14-8 in Nova's L22 neutral court games as well).  This is a pretty high number by both teams' standards as far as the O/U line is concerned.  10* Under Villanova/Kansas

10* Oklahoma (6:05 ET):  So, I had Duke rated higher than Oregon and while my big Sweet 16 play may not have panned out, it stands to reason that I would clearly have Oklahoma rated higher than the Ducks and I do.  I feel that Thursday's misfire was more about overrating the Blue Devils than any kind of misread on the Ducks, who remember failed to cover in their second round game vs. St. Joe's (trailed by seven late in the second half). Meanwhile, OU had not done much covering of late, that was until a very impressive performance against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16 where they won 77-63 as 2.5-pt chalk. That snapped a seven-game ATS slide and I believe the Sooners continue to "get some back" here en route to their first Final Four appearance since 2002! '

Oregon has won a season-high 11 games in a row and they've covered in seven of the past nine victories.  However, what's interesting is that they are the only team in action Saturday that has not been ranked #1 in the human polls at any point this season. Now, I'm not one to ever put a ton of stock into what the pollsters say, it just so happens that the computers tend to have an even less favorable look of the Ducks. They've clearly been "at their best" of late w/ a 19-point average margin of victory the L5 games.  But certainly the Pac 12 can be called into question at this point (none of the other teams survived the 1st weekend) and I feel that them being favored here is an overreaction to what they did against an admittedly short-handed Duke team.

One thing that Oregon should be scared about here is that Oklahoma's Buddy Hield was not necessarily at his "best" Thursday against A&M.  The likely Player of the Year scored only 17 points, but all other Sooners starters were in double figures as well.  I think that after all the struggles at the betting window down the stretch, OU currently represents an excellent "buy low" opportunity here.  They actually average more points per game than does Oregon and are incredibly prolific from three-point range (42.6%!).  The key here could end up being defense and the Sooners rank 21 spots higher in terms of efficiency (14 vs. 35) on that end of the court.  Wrong team favored. 10* Oklahoma

10* Indiana (9:55 ET): North Carolina is a hot team right now as they've won seven straight and many now consider them to be the "co-favorite" (along w/ Kansas) to cut down the nets next week.  But I'm not sure any team has a better win so far in this tournament than Indiana considering the manner that they downed chic Final Four pick Kentucky in the last round. Before we go crowning the Tar Heels anything just yet, let's remember that despite those final scores, they were somewhat tooth and nail w/ both Florida Gulf Coast and Providence into the second half. I think this is an overlay as Sweet 16 underdogs of more than three points have tended to excel through the years.  Take the points.

All of the #1 seeds won their first round game by double digits, as was to be expected, but North Carolina was the only one that struggled somewhat.  The Heels were up by just one at the half against Florida Gulf Coast and actually outrebounded for the game!  Very scary is the fact that they allowed FGCU to shoot 60 percent from the floor in the first half!  Against Providence, they again pulled away late for a somewhat misleading final score. That game was tied with just over 15 minutes to go.  Indiana is going to be a far "taller order" here as not only do the Hoosiers come in averaging 82.3 points per game (11th nationally, tied w/ UNC), but they are 4-2 straight up and against the spread this season when taking points.

Of course, it was a win of the outright variety in the last round for the Hoosiers as they really looked impressive in dispatching of Kentucky by a score of 73-67 (were +3.5).  They held UK to its second lowest scoring output of the season and did so by holding them to just 35.4% shooting in the half court.  North Carolina is not a great shooting team, at least from three-point range where they're just 30.3 percent for the year outside of Chapel Hill.   Indiana actually got by w/ a relatively subpar effort on the offensive end themselves vs. Kentucky (28.6% from 3-pt range), but if you recall also scored 99 points in their opening round contest vs. Chattanooga. This is a team that has lost just two games by more than five points all year. 10* Indiana

10* Over Iowa St/Virginia (7:10 ET):  This will be billed as a "clash of styles" as Iowa State averages 81.8 points per game (15th most nationally) while Virginia allows just 57.0 PPG (6th fewest).  However, let's not allow the fact that BOTH teams here rank in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency to be overlooked. So the possibility of a relatively high scoring game is certainly there and furthermore, I find it interesting that of all the Sweet 16 games, this is the only one that is receiving overwhelming support on the Under. That's unusual to see so many tickets in one game being written on the Under (public traditionally 'loves' Overs), so this is the rare shot to be contrarian and call for an Over. From ISU's perspective, this is certainly a low number.

Virginia has allowed more than its season average in three of the past four games. The exception would be the first round game vs. 16-seed Hampton, who was completely outmatched.  In the second round game vs. Butler, they gave up 69 points and the game easily went Over the total.  Now, the Under remains 9-3 their L12 games overall and this looks like it will close as one of the highest totals for any Hoos game this season.  But consider that Iowa State team will likely be the best offensive outfit they've faced all year long.  I know the Cavs hosted Oakland (#1 in PPG nationally) earlier this season, but the Golden Grizzlies are just 19th in efficiency, meaning they tend to need more possessions that does ISU. Speaking of offense, UVA is underrated in that department as this year's team averaged 71 PPG, a high for the Tony Bennett era.  They are sixth in efficiency, averaging almost 1.2 points per possessions and have shot better than 52% from the floor in five of the past six games. Against Butler, the Cavs shot 73% in a second half that saw nearly 100 total points scored!

I took the Under in Iowa State's last game as they faced off w/ an Arkansas Little Rock squad whose goal was to slow the tempo down. The big difference between that matchup and this one is that the Trojans rank just 89th in offensive efficiency. The Cyclones held them to just 61 points on 37% shooting. But let's not forget how ISU allowed 81 points to Iona in its first round tournament game, which also saw nearly 100 total pts scored in the second half. They also are still 13-3 Over in neutral site games where the total is 140 to 144.5 and 8-2 Over when playing w/ five or six days rest.  Even though Virginia shot well overall vs. Butler, they were just 2 for 10 from three-point range, one of their worst performances from behind the arc all season. So we should improvement there and this one sails past the number. 10* Over Iowa State/Virginia

10* Duke (10:05 ET):  The wrong team is favored here. I simply don't know any other way to say it. It's not just that Oregon, clearly, was the weakest #1 seed coming into the draw. But also, compare the ACC's performance in this Tournament to that of the Pac 12 and I feel it tells the story. The ACC has placed a record six teams among the Sweet 16 while the Ducks are the lone remaining Pac 12 representative as five of the other six failed to even get out of the first round!  UO does arrive into the Sweet 16 riding a season-best 10-game win streak, but they had a close call w/ St. Joe's in the Rd of 32 (I cashed the dog plus the points) and for a second straight game will fade the Ducks.  This time I anticipate an outright win, but take the points anyway.

Though both of these teams won by similar margins in the Round of 32, that's a bit misleading.  Duke led Yale by as many as 27 points before the Bulldogs stormed back (cutting the lead to as little as three!) and still was able to (barely) cover as six-point chalk in a 71-64 victory.  Oregon, meanwhile, trailed St. Joe's by as many as seven points late in the second half before storming back to win the game.  While the Blue Devils depth can absolutely be questioned, so too can the Ducks' as both teams are likely to go only seven deep Thursday. Duke has the better scoring duo w/ Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram both averaging over 20 points per game in the Tournament.  No other team left can say they have that (two players averaging 20+ PPG).  I think it's very important to remember that the Blue Devils sport the fourth most efficient offense in the country. They are also the defending National Champs & 7-2 ATS their last nine NCAA Tournament games.

Duke's two weaknesses are defense and rebounding, but I'm not sure Oregon will take advantage of those in the manner expected.  Sure, the Ducks can score (78.9 PPG), but they had only six assists and 35 rebounds vs. St. Joe's. Offensive rebounds can be had against them. They were lucky that the Hawks struggled in transition in that last game. Duke may have only had to beat a 13 and 12 seed to get here, but remember this is a team that has lost by more than five points only three times since November.  I give Coach K the edge over Dana Altman w/ all this time to prepare, which is important, as is the fact Oregon is just 241st in 3-pt FG% allowed and Duke shoots 38.7% from behind the arc.  10* Duke

8* Maryland (9:40 ET): Kansas comes into the Sweet 16 w/ an aura of invincibility, but this is a season where such an aura is by no means reality and I think this shapes up as an overlay against Maryland team that treated me well in their last game. My biggest play from the first weekend was on the Terrapins against Hawaii and despite going a woeful 1 for 18 from three-point range, they won that game with "room to spare," 73-60 as 6.5-point chalk.  I can't fathom they'll be so bad again from behind the arc (36.7% for the year) and that means trouble for the Jayhawks, who are "due" to drop one at the betting window after covering 13 of their last 16.  Sweet 16/Elite 8 favorites of more than three points are just 37-54 ATS (40.7%) ATS. Take the points.

In my analysis for the Maryland-Hawaii game, I made mention that the Terps appear to be vastly underrated right now. It was just last month that they were 22-3 straight up and ranked #2 in the human polls!  Four of the five losses they've taken since then have been by five points or less!  I think that it's pretty interesting to find that the majority of wagers on this game have (predictably) been on the favorite, yet the line has not moved an inch (as of Wednesday night). While the majority of tickets have been written on Kansas, the overall handle is relatively split, indicating that there's some potential sharp money on the dog here. 

Again, Maryland's three-point shooting can only improve even going against a KU defense that has been pretty stingy to this point.  All five Terrapins starters average in double figures, led by Melo Trimble, who did an outstanding job of getting to the foul line in the Hawaii game (23 attempts).  I also believe the Terps happen to have the size to combat the Jayhawks' excellent front court.  While their three-point shooting has been poor to this point, Maryland shot a ridiculous 70 percent from 2-point range vs. Hawaii. That will almost certainly go down here, but will be offset from the likely improvement from three-point range.  Defensively, they held Hawaii to just 0.86 points per possession, which is impressive. I just think that after getting through the first two rounds virtually unscathed, Kansas is due for a close game.  8* Maryland

10* Florida (7:00 ET):  In yday's analysis on St. Mary's-Valpo, I made mention that when filling out my own NIT bracket (yes, I did one!) that I had the Crusaders making it all the way to the Championship Game. Well, on the other side, I have Florida. Tonight, the Gators are underdogs to a George Washington team that treated me quite well on Monday, beating Monmouth outright.  While a Florida-Monmouth matchup would have provided us with incredible value (on the Gators), drawing GW here still has the contingent from Gainesville priced inaccurately as I have them rated as the better team even after factoring in the home court advantage for the Colonials.  Take the points.

Florida comes into tonight off wins over North Florida and Ohio State, both on the road. What's unique here is that despite being the #2 seed in the region, all of the Gators' games thus far have been away from home. This is because their own arena is currently being renovated. While this would seem to put them at a disadvantage, all it's done is create a ton of value on a team that I have rated the best in the entire NIT field.  It was somewhat of an 'ugly' February at the betting window (1-6 ATS), but a 4-0-1 ATS mark the L5 games has changed that and it was interesting (and deserved) that they were a favorite in Columbus Sunday, a game where they never trailed. With eight losses by six points or less on its resume, Florida is clearly better than its record shows.

George Washington also never trailed in its last game and that was great for me as I had them against Monmouth and didn't even need the points! But if you recall from my analysis, that was more of a play AGAINST Monmouth, who I've felt has been overrated for quite some time.  This is now a big step up for the Colonials, who are just 1-8 ATS their last nine games vs. the SEC, even though they did beat Tennessee earlier this year (didn't cover). Though Monmouth was the top seed in this region, they weren't even close to being the best team and in fact my own power ratings indicate that Florida is coming off the tougher opponent here!  It's highly unlikely that GW will hold such a drastic edge in FG% here like they did vs. Monmouth (51.9% to 34.2%).  10* Florida

10* Valparaiso (7:00 ET):  Not many people fill out an NIT bracket, but I did, and in the interest of full disclosure, Valpo was in my Championship Game.  The Crusaders, the top-seeded team in their region, I thought had a more legit gripe about being "snubbed" by the NCAA selection committee than say, Monmouth.  So far, they have rolled to a pair of pretty easy wins, beating both Texas Southern and Florida State by double digits on their home floor. Up next is a visit from St. Mary's and while a stiffer test it might be, I still have the Crusaders advancing w/ relative ease. This is not a great spot at all for the visiting Gaels, who are making the trip out East with three less days to prepare than Valpo had. Lay the points.

After escaping New Mexico State, 58-56 in Rd 1, St. Mary's prevailed Sunday over Georgia by a score of 77-65, covering as seven-point chalk.  They are now 18-12 ATS for the season, but that's less impressive when you consider they started a perfect 12-0. Also, this will be only the second non-conference road game of the entire season (seriously!) for the Gaels. The first and only other came all the way back on December 12th when they lost at Cal, 63-59. Incredibly, Tuesday night marks just the second time all season that they have left the Pacific Time Zone! The furthest "East" they have traveled previously would be to the Mountain Time Zone for a date w/ Brigham Young that they ended up losing by 11 points. 

As alluded to above, Valpo has a massive edge as far as time to prepare goes. They last played Thursday while St. Mary's second round game took place on Sunday. That's pretty significant, given this being the Gaels first long road trip of the season. Of the Crusaders' six losses this season, only two were by more than six points and one of them was in overtime, unfortunately in the Horizon League Tournament.  They really should have been in the NCAA Tournament ahead of Tulsa.  Here at home, they are 16-1 SU this season with an average margin of victory of +18.7 points per game.  Prior to the second round win over Florida State (led by 10 at the half, never trailed), the Crusaders had yet to be favored by seven or fewer points at home all season.  This is a really nice value with the short number.  10* Valparaiso  

8* George Washington (7:00 ET):  In case you haven't picked up on it in previous analysis, I feel there's a definite link between Monmouth's bench shenanigans and them being overvalued at times by the oddsmakers. For a team out of the MAAC, they sure do seem to have a high profile.  Now going against them in their first round NIT game proved to not be profitable as they beat Bucknell 90-80. That improved their YTD against the spread record to 21-12, which somewhat contradicts my earlier statement re: them being overvalued. But overvalued is what I feel the Hawks are again Monday as they step up in class with a visit from George Washington, a team that I would have favored against them on a neutral court. Even with the home court edge, I do not believe Monmouth should be favored by this many.  Take the points.

Now Monmouth's first round NIT game was a bit closer than the final score indicated as it was tied 52-52 in the second half before the Hawks hot second-half shooting eventually overwhelmed their opponent. For the game, they finished at 11 of 27 from behind the arc and scored 54 points in the second half alone. I really thought that Bucknell plus the points was the way to go in that contest as a high ticket count on Monmouth, plus the added disappointment of a NCAA 'snub', had me thinking they were ripe to be upset. Remember that this team was a dog in the MAAC Tourney Final against Iona. Alas, I was incorrect, but a second shot w/ a better opponent taking points still has me confident. 

In each of its last four games, George Washington has failed to meet the oddsmakers expectations. In Wednesday's 82-80 win over Hofstra, the Colonials needed a last-second shot just to escape, though it should be pointed out that they led by 11 at halftime.  Tied for the second-most wins in a single season in program history, GW was ousted by a St. Joe's team that just gave Oregon a great game in the NCAA Tourney and generally played much stiffer competition in the Atlantic 10 than Monmouth did in the MAAC.  Remember that Monmouth has dropped three games this year - outright - to teams outside of Vegas' top 200.  8* George Washington

8* St. Joseph's (9:40 ET):  In the interest of full disclosure, I was going to take Cincinnati to upset Oregon in this spot. I had the Bearcats Friday night against St. Joe's and were it not for a waved off, game-tying dunk, I could have had the opportunity to take them here against the Ducks. But alas, it is St. Joe's in this spot. I was critical of the Hawks in my analysis for their first round matchup w/ UC, but the bottom line is the overwhelming support Oregon is getting here has me willing to take an inflated number.  After all, St. Joe's is a money-making 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season after winning outright each of their last three games. Oregon is clearly overvalued after beating up on a patsy in their first round game.  Take the points here.

The one clear benefit to being a #1 seed is that you in essence get a first round bye. No 1-seed has ever lost in the Round of 64 and that trend figures to continue as their 16th seeded counterparts - by definition - are the worst teams in the field and many of them are teams that didn't even win their conference in the regular season. Oregon drew such a first round opponent, that being Holy Cross, perhaps one of the most unlikely teams in the field as the Crusaders were actually the 8-seed in the Patriot League and pulled four straight upsets just to get to Friday (three in conference tourney, then one over Southern on Wednesday).  So, what I'm saying is that little can be derived from the Ducks' 91-52 win their last time out. 

Both of these teams flew Over the number in their respective first round games.  St. Joe's scored 78 points on only 62 possessions against a hard-nosed Cincy team after topping 80 in all three Atlantic 10 Tourney Games.  Defensively, Oregon will present many problems for them.  But this number is clearly inflated as my own power rankings suggest the top seed should be just a slight favorite here. While being a 1-seed worked out well for them Friday, here it works against them as they are a 1-seed in "name only" as the vast majority of ranking systems have them outside the top 20. I think the underdog matches up well here and will keep this game close throughout.  8* St. Joseph's

10* Maryland (7:10 ET):  As with any team that pulls a major upset in this event, I "tip my cap," but when it comes to Hawaii there was an incredible confluence of events that took place, setting up their 77-66 upset (were +6) of Cal on Friday.  First off, the opponent was w/o their leading scorer PG Tyrone Wallace. Secondly, the Bears had to dismiss an assistant coach during the weak amidst scandal.  Third, on the morning of the game, another Cal starter (Jabari Bird) experienced back spasms and wound up not playing either.  So all the elements an underdog would like (and then some!) were definitely present for the Rainbow Warriors, who additionally shot 51.9% from the field (Cal was only 41.1 percent, including 3 of 19 from 3-pt range). Up next for Hawaii is Maryland and this will be a far tougher task.  I'm laying the points.

Maryland's 79-74 opening round win over South Dakota State ended up being a lot closer than it should have as the Terps led by as many as 18 late in the second half before sloppy play allowed the Jackrabbits in the "back door."  It was a "tale of two halves" as in the first they held SDSU to only 22 points on 26.5% shooting, but in the second they gave up an astounding 52 points.  I anticipate a more complete game this time around. Remember that Mark Turgeon's team was once (as in "last month") 22-3 straight up and ranked as high as #2 in the human polls. They clearly came into this Tournament underseeded and with an upset taking place in their bracket, they now have a pretty clear path to the Sweet 16 from where I sit.

All five Maryland starters average double figures in points per game and simply put this is a much taller order for underdog Hawaii than undermanned Cal was.  The Warriors have performed exceptionally well on the mainland this season (11-2 straight up!), but you have to wonder if they are feeling a bit road weary considering they've been "off the Island" since March 1st.  Looking at the line here and comparing to what we saw in both teams' first round matchups, it becomes clear that there's some value here on the Terps. Furthermore, no favorite seems to be getting LESS respect from bettors currently and that's a good sign as when too many people feel an "upset" is going to take place (like Wich St yday - yes, I know, technically a favorite), it often does not.  10* Maryland

8* Syracuse (6:10 ET):  Middle Tennessee is coming off one of the great upsets in Tournament history as they became just the eighth 15-seed to win a game in this event.  Of the octet, it can be argued that the Blue Raiders slayed the biggest giant, that being a Michigan State team that many (myself included) would make it to the Final Four and possibly win a National Championship.  Just to put over how improbable Friday's result was, MTSU scored 90 points (their 2nd most in a game all season) against the best defensive team they have faced and they did so at a stunning rate (1.32 pts per possession!) due to shooting a preposterous 57.9 percent (11 for 19) from three-point range.  Ladies & gentlemen, this is an offense that ranked seventh in efficiency - in Conference USA - during the regular season! They fall hard in Round 2. Lay the points here.

Not only will the Blue Raiders have to contend with plain old regression here, but they also have to deal w/ Jim Boeheim's trademark zone defense, which can make that regression be even more pronounced.  Syracuse just held its first round opponent - Dayton - to only 6 of 22 shooting from behind the arc and that's after holding ACC opponents to only 28.9% during the regular season. They will force Middle Tennessee into taking plenty of long-range shots here and after Friday's remarkable performance, it is highly unlikely that the Blue Raiders will make many of them. Something else to keep an eye on is that MTSU only turned the ball over 10 times vs. Michigan State while committing just 13 fouls.  I just can't see a repeat in either department here. 

After dropping three straight, all by five points or less, the Orange looked simply fantastic in squeezing out a 70-51 win over Dayton on Friday.  The ACC is looking very strong in this tournament w/ a 10-1 SU record & could put as many as six teams into the Sweet 16!  That speaks to the level of competition that Syracuse has faced throughout the year and simply put - on paper - this will be the weakest foe on the schedule (w/ the exception of BC) since their conference slate began. Remember that only one 15 seed - Florida Gulf Coast - has ever made it to the Sweet 16.  8* Syracuse

10* Iowa (12:10 ET):  The seventh-seeded Hawkeyes really let me down on Friday, blowing an early lead and needing OT just to pull off a SU win over Temple (won on putback at the buzzer). I think that as far as their critics are concerned, the blown lead only further "stokes the fire" as they did falter badly down the stretch, losing six of eight while going a money-burning 1-7 ATS. But as someone who does not qualify as an Iowa critic, I really like them plus the points here (rare that they are a dog!) against a Villanova team that drew a weak first round opponent (UNC Asheville) and will likely be tight due to their own issue, which is that they never seem to make it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Take the points.

Over the last eight games, Iowa has been a dog only once. I took them and they didn't just cover for me (were just +1.5), but won outright at Michigan.  I realize that lately they've lost straight up more than not, but note their biggest margin of defeat during this stretch was just eight points.  Four times they've lost by four points or less.  I'll rehash what I said in my analysis for the Temple game: this team was once ranked #3 in the entire country. They come into the Tourney drastically undervalued.  Note that they got away w/ shooting only 34.8% from the field against Temple. But they also turned the ball over just three times in an overtime game, highlighting a season-long strength (taking care of the basketball) that I had brought up in my previous analysis as well. I truly believe that this team is due to rediscover its hot shooting from the start of the season (and start of the Temple game, for that matter!).

Iowa came out hot from behind the arc Thursday, making six of its first nine three-pointers. They are at 37.7% for the year in that department. If Villanova has a weakness defensively, it's that they allow a lot of three-point shots (37.3% of all opponents' attempts are from behind the arc). Also, the Wildcats can be had on the glass, which is great news for an Iowa team that typically is strong when it comes to offensive rebounding. There were a ton of upsets on Friday (duh!) and many top seeds that did survive, struggled. Nova didn't fall into either category obviously, but off the 30-point win they look overvalued to me in this spot as it is unlikely they will duplicate their 57.9% shooting from the last game. Again, the program's history of faltering in this round is well-known and will be discussed ad nauseam leading up to tip-off. I can see that having an adverse effect on the players, none of whom have ever made it to the second weekend.  The Hawkeyes (77.9 PPG) will score enough to stay close throughout and possibly threaten to take the game outright. 10* Iowa

10* Gonzaga (8:40 ET):  There is no running from the Pac 12's awful record so far in this year's NCAA Tournament (2-5 in first round), so I am not surprised at all to see the "Runnin' Utes" in the pick 'em range against 11-seed Gonzaga.  Of the teams seeded three or higher, Utah was w/o question the weakest and yes I'm taking into account teams that have already lost. Meanwhile, Gonzaga deserved far better than an 11-seed, which was a byproduct of them being in the rare position of having to win the WCC Tournament just to get into the Big Dance.  They looked far more impressive to me in dispatching of a Seton Hall team that had just won the Big East Tournament than Utah did in its first round win over Fresno State. Therefore, I'm backing the 'Zags here.

Maybe I'm a bit biased because I took Gonzaga in Round One (where they were actually favored despite being the lower seed). But there can be no denying how good Mark Few's team looked in the 68-52 win and cover. Again, that Seton Hall team had just beaten Xavier and Villanova in B2B days last weekend.   They held Pirates' leading scorer Isaiah Whitehead to 4 for 24 shooting overall (0 for 10 from three-point range) and while Seton Hall appeared to be ill-prepared to play at elevation and Denver was a huge edge for them (won't be here), I still would like to point out that I have the 'Zags rated as the better team here.  They won have won six straight, four of those coming by double digits.

Much will be made about the matchup of big men here - Utah's Jakob Poeltl and Gonzaga's Domantas Sabonis - but don't discount the impact of Gonzaga's Kyle Wiltjer, who is his team's leading scorer at 20.5 points per game. Wiltjer comes off a subpar effort vs. Seton Hall; he was 5 of 14 from the field for only 13 pts, so I look for a bounce back game here.  The majority of Utah's recent wins were close while their one loss in the last 10 games came by 31. They drew a very weak 1st round opponent in Fresno State, an automatic qualifier that was not its conference's regular season champ.  Yes, you have to consider the respective conferences (Pac 12 vs. WAC), but Gonzaga has the better YTD per game point differential and right now the Pac 12 isn't looking so hot. 10* Gonzaga

8* Under Ark Little Rock/Iowa State (6:10 ET): Let's tip our cap to the incredible comeback Arkansas Little Rock pulled off at Purdue's expense, but at the same time it's very fair to say the Trojans should feel extremely fortunate to still be playing. They trailed the Boilermakers by double digits with just three minutes remaining before an incredible flurry of three-pointers forced overtime and then it took a second extra period to emerge victorious 85-83 (were +8).  The total for that game was a very low 127.5, so the game did go Over in regulation, but you'll note the O/U line is now much higher for this second round game vs. Iowa State, who is off a high-scoring affair themselves, but that was in an ideal matchup for them. Look for this game to be a lot lower-scoring for both sides.  Take the Under.

Iowa State got to face Iona in Round 1.  That was a team that was going to try to play "their style" only with less talent. Therefore, a 94-81 win shouldn't have been all that surprising. The Cyclones opponent here will play a lot different however, as ALR actually would much prefer to slow this game way down and limit the number of overall possessions. ALR comes in allowing only 59.9 points per game for the year (3rd best in the country!) and remember I touted this defense in a 70-50 win over LA Monroe in the Sun Belt Tourney Final last Sunday.  ISU doesn't figure to shoot the ball at a 50% clip (as they did vs. Iona) again here and I'm banking on them having a rebounding disadvantage as well. Ark Little Rock doesn't turn the ball over much either (just 37 last 5 games!), thereby limiting "extra possessions" for the Cyclones here.

Josh Hagins turned in a performance for the ages vs. Purdue (31 points), but the Trojans leading scorer averages only 12.8 PPG and I think it's important to remember he had only two points going into halftime on Thursday.  The team wound up attempting 77 shots vs. Purdue, which is a lot, as for the sake of reference you should note that ISU allowed Iona to take only 64 shots (admittedly a game that ended in regulation). But I think most important of all is to note that Thursday marked the first time all season that ALR went Over the total as an underdog (6-1) and they are also 9-2 Under when playing on one or less days rest. 8* Under Arkansas Little Rock/Purdue

10* Under Yale/Duke (2:40 ET):  Both of these teams went Over in their respective first round games. I specifically want to 'tip my cap' to Yale, who I had in their outright upset of Baylor (continuing the annual trend of a 12 seed over a 5 in this event). The Bulldogs shot 53.1% w/ the unheralded Makai Mason (not even their best player!) scoring a career-high 31 points.  The 79-75 final marked quite the high score a team that would prefer to play at a slower pace and limit possessions. When it comes to average length of possession, Yale is among the national leaders in terms of holding onto the basketball. I anticipate that will be a point of emphasis here against a Duke side that rates as one of the most efficient offenses in the country. But like Yale, the Blue Devils are due for an offensive downturn from their first game.  Take the Under. 

The key for Duke in it's closer than expected 93-85 win over UNC Wilmington was getting to the free throw line w/ incredible abundance.  Clearly, Coach K did his scouting on the opponent as UNCW is well-known for fouling a lot.  Exactly one-third (31 of 93) of the Blue Devils' points came from the charity stripe. That's a very high percentage, obviously.  While they're a good FT shooting team, Duke only averages 18 makes per game for the season (Yale allows only 18 attempts per game!). It also helped that Marshall Plumlee turned in a career-high 23 points Thursday.  Duke has only shot 42.2% from the field its last five games and that could be a big problem here against an opponent that likes to limit the total number of possessions and allows just 63.6 points per game. Don't expect many second chances for the Blue Devils in this one on the offensive end either; Baylor found out the hard way just how effective Yale is on the board (2nd nationally in rebounding differential).

How ironic that Plumlee has an older brother named Mason. For Yale, Makai Mason turned in a career-high himself (in points) on Thursday, including a perfect 11 for 11 from the free throw line. Both players should experience an obvious drop in offensive production here.  This is a unique matchup as it is a rematch from the regular season, an 80-61 win by Duke (had 'em!), that stayed Under the total. The oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly, but not by enough in my estimation as Yale is 9-2 Under their L11 games where the O/U line is between 140 and 149.5 points. Don't discount Duke being short-handed hurting them offensively either. 10* Under Yale/Duke

8* Miami FL (12:10 ET): I respect Wichita State quite a bit, but I feel this line is a classic case of "putting the apple cart before the horse" as Miami still deserves to be the favorite in this second round matchup. Sure, the Shockers looked quite impressive in dismantling their first round opponent, Arizona, who looked woefully unprepared for the task at hand. Plus, Miami failed to cover its first round matchup vs. 14-seed Buffalo. But that combination has served to give us some tremendous value on a Hurricanes team that boasts one of the most efficient offenses in all of College Basketball. This is a tough matchup for WSU, who may have rolled through the Missouri Valley, but this is a big step up in class.  Take the points.

It's certainly odd to see an 11-seed favored over a 3-seed, isn't it? If Wichita State were to win, this would be labeled an upset, but the linesmakers clearly disagree with such an assertion. Again, I absolutely respect what the Shockers bring to the table; it's just that I don't give them a better than 50 percent chance of winning this game, which means fading them is the way to go.  Lost in their tremendous defensive effort on Friday is that they shot the ball at only a 40% clip themselves. They were even worse in the "First Four" game vs. Vanderbilt (37.5%) and even worse than that in the MVC Tourney vs. Northern Iowa (31.7%). Also, remember that this is the Shockers' third game in five days, a tough ask, and it's an early game to boot.

Though Arizona came in averaging 81.5 points per game, Miami offers a tougher matchup thanks to boasting the nation's 12th most efficient offense (Arizona was 20th).  The 'Canes have an experienced backcourt, which figures to turn the ball over far less than Arizona did on Thursday.  PG Angel Rodriguez figures to be the difference maker in this one and don't discount his or the entire team's ability to get to the free throw line (went 26 of 34 vs. Buffalo). If Wichita State has one Achilles' heel, it is that they foul too much.  The Canes are 28-12 ATS when off three or more consecutive ATS losses. 8* Miami FL