Washington Huskies vs Michigan Wolverines
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
7:30 PM EST | ESPN
8-Unit bet on Washington plus the 4.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog, but I do not see this line moving if at all ahead of kickoff.

With a total that is already in the mid-50’s, there is reason to believe scoring volatility will be present and that there may be several lead changes along the way. So, consider betting 70% of your amount preflop and then look to add 15% at Washington +6.5 and 15% more at Washington +7.5points during the first half of action. Another consideration is to bet 70% preflop and then look to add 30% more if Michigan scores the first TD of the game or retakes the lead during the first half of action. I also like a pizza money size bet on Washington’s team total over 24.5 points.

This is just the second team from the PAC-12 to make it to the CFP championship game. On January 12, 2015, Oregon faced off against Ohio State in the first CFP Championship game and lost 42-20 as 6-point favorites. Current Philadelphia Eagles backup QB Marcus Mariota was the Heisman Trophy winner along with the Walter Camp Player of the Year, Maxwell Award, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm, and AP Player of the Year awards. Ohio State’s DL Joey Bosa was the only Buckeye to earn Consensus All-American that season. Oregon was 13-1 with one conference loss while Ohio State was 13-1 under Urban Meyer having just one loss losing in Week 2 on the road at Virginia Tech 35-21 as 10.5-point favorites. A little history of the only PAC-12 vs Big Ten Championship game as the rest have been dominated by the SEC Conference.

Underdogs of 6.5 or fewer points are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS for 71% in the Championship game. The first five Championship games saw a dog of 6.5 or fewer points cover the spread. When the dog has covered the Over has gone 4-1.

Betting on underdogs using the money line that are priced between +150 and +300 invovling a matchup of team that both average 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game, after the 8th game of the season and with our team coming off a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover has earned a 31-24 record averaging a +225 wager and earning a 67% ROI over the past five seasons.

Washington head coach DeBoer is 19-2 SU in all games; 5-0 SU as an underdog; 11-1 SU after scoring 35 or more points; 17-1 SU following a win; 14-1 SU after a game in which they committed no more than one turnover; 9-1 SU after two consecutive games gaining 6.25 or more YPPL. Harbaugh is just 3-8 SU in road and neutral site games against non-conference foes.

From the predictive model, we are expecting Washington to score 27 or more points and to have the same or fewer turnovers in this game. In past games in which Washington met or exceeded these measures they went on to an outstanding 24-3 SU and 20-7 ATS for 74% winning bets over the previous five season and 4-1 ATS in those games if priced as the underdog. Michigan is 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS when allowing 27 or more points and having the same or more turnovers in games played over the past 5 seasons.

10-Unit MAX Bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 3.5 points and is valid to -6 points.

The market is telling you that Texas is the better team since they are favored but ranked No.3 to Washington’s No. 2. That does not tell us the complete story, though, so let’s dig deep here and learn why Texas is my pick and why I do believe Texas will win the National Championship. So, if you have watched the shows I appear on, the one consistent theme since Week 1 was that I saw Texas and Penn State colliding in the National Championship and had bet each one individually. So, now we have Texas left on the betting slips and even at current pricing.

Texas is 14-3 ATS on a neutral field with a total between 56.5 and 63 points. Undefeated teams playing in a bowl game or the CFP and dressed as a dog have gone 1-5 ATS and 0-6 SU. Washington has played tough games winning their last three games by three or fewer points. Texas has won their last three games by 10, 50, and 28 points respectively. Texas QB Ewers threw for 464 yards in the Big-12 Championship game that they won 49-21 over Oklahoma State. They have covered the spread in five of their last six and three straight and the market is simply not catching up to the true market value of Texas.

Three models that I have developed over decades of research prices Texas as a 9.5-point favorite over Washington. However, this does not imply that simply betting Texas is an easy winner. Instead it informs us that there is plenty of value betting Texas which increases are odds to win this 10-Unit bet, but certainly never a guarantee.

From the predictive model, Texas is expected to score 30 or more points and execute more rushing plays than passing plays. In this situation they are 87-9 SU and 71-24-1 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2015. Washington is 5-50 SU and 8-46-1 ATS for 15% when they allowed these measures since 2015.

Betting on elite rushing teams gaining 4.8 or more YPRA from Week 7 on out, is coming off a game limited that opponent to less than 100 rushing yards and now facing a foe that is averaging 4.35 to 4.75 YPRA has earned a 78-41 ATS record for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Mississippi vs Penn State
Peach Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

Noon, Saturday December 30
10-Unit Bet on Penn State minus 5.5 points and is valid to 7 points.

Consider betting 75% of your betting amount preflop and the look to add 25% more with PSU priced at pick-em or better during the first half of action. Another option is to add 25% if Mississippi scores the first TD of the game or retakes the lead with a TD score during the first half of action.

Some notes of interest about the Peach Bowl. The 2023 Peach Bowl game is a college football bowl game that will feature No. 10 Penn State and No. 11 Ole Miss on Saturday, Dec. 30 at noon ET. The game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, and will be televised by ESPN.

This will be the first-ever meeting between the two programs, and only the sixth Big Ten vs. SEC matchup in the Bowl's history. Both teams finished the regular season with 10-2 records and are looking to end the year ranked in the Top-10 Final poll.

Penn State boasts the nation's top-ranked defense based on my comprehensive power rankings. They are expected to slow down the high-octane Mississippi Rebel offense for the entire game. That does noy imply that Mississippi will be held scoreless, but rather that the Mississippi offense will not keep pace with the PSU offense led by sophomore 5-star

The Peach Bowl game will be a clash of styles, as Penn State's stingy defense will try to slow down Ole Miss's high-powered offense. Both teams have a chance to make history, as Penn State can become the first program to win every bowl game that comprises the New Year's Six, and Ole Miss can win its first New Year's Six bowl game under head coach Lane Kiffin.

PSU is 9-1 ATS as a favorite this season; 11-1 ATS after playing two consecutive games against conference foes over the past two seasons; 9-1 ATS in December games; James Franklin is 12-2 ATS when having won 8 or more of their previous 10 games; 16-1 Ats following back-to-back double-digit wins over conference foes; 9-1 ATS when facing a team that is averaging 275 or more passing yards per game.

Notre Dame vs Oregon State
Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
2 ET

8-Unit Bet on the Oregon State Beavers plus the 6.5 points

Consider betting 75% preflop and then look to add 25% more with OSU priced at 10.5 points during the first half of action.

Betting on neutral field underdogs that are facing a foe that has won 60 to 85% of their games and has won three of their last four games has earned a 32-10 record good for 77% winning bets since 2014.  

The predictive models I have developed reveal that OSU is 23-6 SU and 25-4 ATS for 86%) when scoring 28 or more -points and gaining at least 150 rushing yards since 2019.

Clemson vs Kentucky

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl | Noon ET, Friday
8-Unit Bet on Kentucky plus the 4.5 points and is valid if they remain the underdog.

This bowl game features a team from the SEC going up against a team from the ACC ro another conference if no ACC teams are available. Here are some more interesting facts about the Gator Bowl.

Some facts about the Gator Bowl Football Game are:

The first Gator Bowl was played on January 1, 1946, between Wake Forest and South Carolina, with Wake Forest winning 26-14.

The most recent Gator Bowl was played on December 30, 2022, between Notre Dame and South Carolina, with Notre Dame winning 30-33.

The Gator Bowl has hosted four national championship teams: Georgia Tech in 1952, Florida in 1996, Tennessee in 1998, and Florida State in 2013.

The Gator Bowl has featured some of the most memorable moments in college football history, such as the “Fog Bowl” in 1959, the “Lindsey Scott Miracle Run” in 1980, the “Gator Flop” in 1971, and the “Woody Hayes Punch” in 1978.

The Gator Bowl has also showcased some of the most prominent players and coaches in college football history, such as Bobby Bowden, Steve Spurrier, Peyton Manning, Tim Tebow, Joe Namath, and Johnny Unitas.

Clemson (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) had a disappointing season by its own standards, losing four games for the first time since 2014. The Tigers struggled offensively, ranking 56th in the nation in scoring with 29.2 points per game. Quarterback Cade Klubnik had a solid debut season, throwing for 2,580 yards and 19 touchdowns, but also had eight interceptions. The Tigers relied on their running game, led by Phil Mafah and Will Shipley, who combined for 1,692 yards and 14 touchdowns. Clemson’s defense was solid, allowing only 19.9 points per game and ranking fifth in the nation in passing defense. However, the Tigers will be without some key players on defense, such as linebacker Jeremiah Trotter and defensive end Ruke Orhorhoro, who opted out of the bowl game. Most importantly, they are very thin at the cornerback position and any injury, even if minor that removes the starting corners out fo the game for a few plays, will present some high percentage chunk plays for Kentucky.

Kentucky (7-5, 6-6 ATS) had a roller-coaster season, winning its first four games before losing five of its next seven. The Wildcats had a balanced offense, averaging 28.6 points per game and ranking 95th in passing and 96th in rushing. Quarterback Devin Leary, a transfer from NC State, had a breakout season, throwing for 2,440 yards and 23 touchdowns, with 10 interceptions. He had a trio of reliable receivers in Dane Key, Barion Brown and Tayvion Robinson, who each had over 400 yards and four touchdowns. The Wildcats also had a star running back in Ray Davis, who rushed for 1,066 yards and 13 touchdowns. Davis declared for the NFL Draft, but will play in the bowl game.

Kentucky’s defense was average, allowing 26.8 points per game and ranking 65th in total defense. The Wildcats thrived on forcing turnovers, as they had 21 takeaways, including 14 interceptions.

Head coach Stoops is 23-13 ATS when facing a non-conference game. Clemson is 3-12 ATS after allowing 14 or fewer points in games played over the past three seasons; 1-8 ATS after allowing seven or fewer points in the first of each of their ;ast two games in games played over the past three seasons.  

USC vs Louisville

8 ET | Fox | Holiday Bowl
Petco Park, San Diego, CA
8-Unit bet on the Trojans plus the 7 0oints and is valid down to 6.5 points.

Betting on teams priced as 4.5 or greater underdogs in a bowl game and covered the spread in three or fewer games on the season have produced a 14-9-2 ATS mark good for 61% winning bets dating back to the 1989 season.

The market has overreacted to how poorly USC played down the stretch ranking 11th best in total offense but a horrid 120th in total defense nationally and the fact that their 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams has opted out of this bowl game. It is also a fact that PAC-12 Bowl teams have gone a shocking 0-16 ATS when coming off a SU and ATS loss in their season finale. However, that trend is mature and statistically poised to move in the other direct over the coming bowl seasons. Problem is there I no PAC-12 conference starting next season. Trends like this one reflect a market that has continuously relied on it and others and the result is an undervalued underdog, especially in this matchup.

USC has a new defensive coordinator who will prepare this Trojan team better than in any of the previous 8 games this season and further they have the motivation to play hard and put the those terrible defensive games in the rearview mirror heading into Spring Football. Lincoln Kennedy is an elite coach and is 6-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points in bowl games. If this game was priced before the season started the trojans would have been 9.5-point favorites.

The predictive models inform us that USC is 69-4 SU and 55-16-1 ATS for 78% winning bets when they have been priced as a dog, scored 27 or more points, and had the same or fewer turnovers.

Northwestern vs. Utah
68 Ventures Bowl, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
7:30 PM EST, Saturday December 23, 2023
8-Unit bet on Northwestern plus the 6 points and is valid down to 4 points.

Teams that became bowl eligible coming off a season in which they won three of fewer games and playing a foe that won four or more games in their previous season has earned an outstanding 34-19 SU record and 38-12-3 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team is a member of the Power 5 conferences (PAC-12, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big-12) they have gone a highly profitable 18-3 ATS for 86% winning bets. Northwestern is a member of the Big Ten and certainly outperformed everyone’s expectations this season given they were priced with a 2.5 wins total before the season started.

UTSA vs Marshall
Frisco Bowl
9 ET December 19
8-Unit bet on Marshall plus 7.5 points and is valid bet if they remain the dog

UTSA is coming off a 29-16 loss as a 3.5-point underdog to Tulane in their previous game. Marshall is coming off a 35-21 win as 1-point underdog over Arkansas State in their season finale and that momentum will carry over to this bowl game. Marshall has seen 11 players enter the transfer portal with their sophomore quarterback Cam Fancher entering the portal December 11. However, Marshall is quite deep in the quarterback position.

Marshall faces a quarterback conundrum with a major transfer triggering a rise in the betting lines to a double-digit spread. However, there is not going to be a significant drop-off if this opens the door for Cole Pennington, son of former NFL QB Chad Pennington, to step in under center. In fact, I see no change to a potential better offense with Pennington calling the signals.  He completed 49-of-79 passes for 437 yards including 6 TD and 3 interceptions in three games, including starts against Georgia Southern and South Alabama. So, his potential is quite high, and he already has proven he can run an efficient offense.

From the predictive model we are looking for Marshall to score 24 or more points and gain at least 5 yards per play has seen them produce a 56-12 record and a 42-25-1 ATS record over the last 10 seasons. If they were an underdog in these games, they have gone 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS.

Iowa vs Michigan
8:00 EST | FOX
Big Ten Championship
8-Unit best Bet on Iowa as long as they are 20 or more-point underdogs.
A small sprinkle with pizza money using the money line is worth it.

I also like betting over the Iowa Team Total for 5-Units.

Iowa is on a 6-0 ATS win streak when away from home and having allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game; 18-7 on the road and when coming off a win by 6 or fewer points. Iowa head coach Ferentz is 38-19 ATS in games with a posted total of 42 or fewer points; 40-18 ATS when facing an elite passing team averaging 8 or more YPPA. Iowa is 20-23 SU and 26-14-3 ATS when playing with triple revenge and 16-9-3 ATS when taking on a conference foe and 8-2 ATS since 2014.

Back in 2016 on November 12, Iowa as priced as a 24-point underdog to Michigan, and they defeated them 14-13 and the score at the half was 10-8 Michigan. Michigan got out to a 10-0 lead, then Iowa scored on a safety and added a TD, but failed to convert the 2-pointer. In the second half Iowa added a FG to take a 11-10 lead. Michigan followed q with a FG with 9 minutes left in the game and then place kicker Duncan hit a 33-yard FG on the last play of the game to win it. Think history repeats?

It is a long shot for Iowa to pull off the upset and there is defense will have to play their best game yet this season. The four defenses in the nation based on my power ratings are in the Big Ten and Iowa is one of them. Iowa ranks 4th in scoring defense allowing 12.2 PPG, tops with a 0.171 opponent points per play ratio, second allowing just 3.9 yards per play, second allowing 5.0 yards per pass. They play smart and rank third averaging 3.3 penalties per game. Michigan is also a great defense, but if Iowa can force Michigan into second and third and long yardage situations, they are going to keep the game close and get into the fourth quarter with a single score margin. At that point, who knows what could happen. Iowa may not need their offense to be productive if they generate turnovers and perhaps even get a pick six. That is a lot to ask for if the game was priced at pick-em, but it’s not and we are getting 22 points to assume the risk.

SMU vs Tulane
American Athletic Championship
4:00 ET | ABC
8-Unit bet on Tulane minus the three points and is good up to 4.5 points, but that is unlikely to occur.

Betting on a team that has covered the spread by 50 or more points over their past 5 games both teams have won 80% or more of their games and the total of the game is 45 or more points has earned a 54-25-3 ATS mark for 68.4% winning bets since 2015.

From the predictive model, we learn that Tulane is 62-14 SU and 57-19 ATS for 75% winning bets when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers. SMU is 16-94 SU and 27-83 ATS for 24.5% winning bets when allowing 24 or more points and having the same or more turnovers.

Iowa vs Michigan
8:00 EST | FOX
Big Ten Championship
8-Unit best Bet on Iowa as long as they are 20 or more-point underdogs.
A small sprinkle with pizza money using the money line is worth it.

I also like betting over the Iowa Team Total for 5-Units.

Iowa is on a 6-0 ATS win streak when away from home and having allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game; 18-7 on the road and when coming off a win by 6 or fewer points. Iowa head coach Ferentz is 38-19 ATS in games with a posted total of 42 or fewer points; 40-18 ATS when facing an elite passing team averaging 8 or more YPPA. Iowa is 20-23 SU and 26-14-3 ATS when playing with triple revenge and 16-9-3 ATS when taking on a conference foe and 8-2 ATS since 2014.

Back in 2016 on November 12, Iowa as priced as a 24-point underdog to Michigan, and they defeated them 14-13 and the score at the half was 10-8 Michigan. Michigan got out to a 10-0 lead, then Iowa scored on a safety and added a TD, but failed to convert the 2-pointer. In the second half Iowa added a FG to take a 11-10 lead. Michigan followed q with a FG with 9 minutes left in the game and then place kicker Duncan hit a 33-yard FG on the last play of the game to win it. Think history repeats?

It is a long shot for Iowa to pull off the upset and there is defense will have to play their best game yet this season. The four defenses in the nation based on my power ratings are in the Big Ten and Iowa is one of them. Iowa ranks 4th in scoring defense allowing 12.2 PPG, tops with a 0.171 opponent points per play ratio, second allowing just 3.9 yards per play, second allowing 5.0 yards per pass. They play smart and rank third averaging 3.3 penalties per game. Michigan is also a great defense, but if Iowa can force Michigan into second and third and long yardage situations, they are going to keep the game close and get into the fourth quarter with a single score margin. At that point, who knows what could happen. Iowa may not need their offense to be productive if they generate turnovers and perhaps even get a pick six. That is a lot to ask for if the game was priced at pick-em, but it’s not and we are getting 22 points to assume the risk.

Louisville vs FSU
ACC Championship
8 ET | 8-Unit Best Bet on FSU minus the point.

FSU is not a team based on a star quarterback. They are a complete team and no one talks about their defense that ranks 8th nationally allowing 17.1 PPG and 7th posting a 0.252 points per play allowed ratio. They are the BEST passing defense in the nation allowing 47% completions and 8th with a 9.08% sack percentage. It will be the defense that will get the job done and limit Louisville’s offensive production.

FSU is 8-1 when facing an above average passing team completing 64% or more of their passes.

[QB] Tate Rodemaker (Head) - Doubtful () [12/01/2023] => Rodemaker is tending to a head injury, and it is unlikely that he will take on Louisville in the ACC Championship game. So, Brock Glenn is likely to start under center for the Seminoles and he is an outstanding talent and athlete with size at 6-3 and 220 pounds and a huge arm. Four-star prospect ranked as No. 13 quarterback nationally and No. 7 overall prospect in Tennessee by 247Sports…rated as country’s 15th-highest quarterback prospect by Rivals, 17th by ESPN and 25th by On3…made Elite 11 Finals in summer of 2022…accounted for more than 4,500 yards of total offense and 68 touchdowns during prep career…passed for 3,928 yards and 57 touchdowns with only 13 interceptions and added 654 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns…led Lausanne to eight wins and advanced to quarterfinal round of Tennessee High School Division II Class AA playoffs his senior season…was 74-of-126 passing for 1,413 yards and 18 touchdowns and added 443 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 9.8 yards per carry…led Lynx to semifinal round of state playoffs and nine wins in 2021…completed 97 of 155 passes for 1,576 yards and 23 touchdowns…also rushed for 161 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries…played six games his sophomore year, passing for 912 yards and 15 touchdowns and rushing for 28 yards on 12 carries…was 1-of-1 passing for 27 yards and rushed for 22 yards in one appearance as a freshman.

Washington vs. Oregon
8-Unit Best Bet on the Oregon Ducks minus the 10 points and this line may drop to 9.5 or fewer points as kickoff approaches.

Betting on teams that are gaining 5.8 or more RYPA and coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards and now facing a foe that gaining between 4.3 and 4.8 RYPA has earned a solid 125-70 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

From the predictive mode, we learn that Oregon is 122-4 SU and 87-3% winning bets when scoring 35 or more points and having the same or fewer interceptions thrown. If they have scored 41 or more points and did not throw an interception has produced a 71-1 SU record and 54-15-2 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets.

New Mexico State vs Liberty
C-USA Championship
8-Unit Best Bet on the Liberty Flames -10.5 points and is valid up to -12 points.

Undefeated teams facing a foe with three or more losses in their Conference Championship game are 41-7 SU and 13-17 ATS for 65% winners since 1996. If our team si favored they are 41-5 SU and 31-15 ATS for 67.4% winners. If a double-digit favorite they have gone 34-3 SU and 25-12 ATS for 68% winning bets.

From the predictive models we learn that Liberty is 41-8 SU and 36-10-1 ATS in games in which they have scored 31 or more points since 2018. Plus, if they score28 or more -points and gain 450 or more yards has produced a 32-3 SU mark and 26-8-1 ATS record good for 77 % winning bets.

Clemson vs South Carolina
7:30 ET | Saturday
Williams Brice Stadium, Atlanta
8-Unit Best bet on South Carolina plus the 7.5 points and is valid down to 6.5 points.

Betting on home underdogs between 3.5 and 12.5 points that are riding a three or more-game win streak and facing a foe that has won at least their previous game and with a total of 50 or more points has gone 44-21-1 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This system has not had a losing season spanning this 10-season slice of games.

SC is 5-6 and needs the win to be bowl eligible and that is far more motivation that what Clemson has to grab a hold of as they conclude their very disappointing season already with four losses. Clemson is 0-7 ATS failing to cover by an average of 13.6 PPG after allowing seven or fewer points in the first half of each of their last two games.

Alabama vs Auburn
Iron Bowl | 3:30 ET
8-Unit bet on Auburn +13 points and is good down to 11.5 points.

Auburn head coach Freeze is a solid 31-14 ATS when priced as the dog for his career and 16-4-1 ATS when facing a strong passing attack that is completing 62% or more of their passes.

Betting on home underdogs that are allowing an average of 5.2 to 6.2 YPPL and facing a foe that is an elite offense gaining 6.2 or more YPPL and is coming off two consecutive games gaining an average of 6.2 or more YPPL in each game has earned an outstanding 90-42-2 ATS for 68% winning bets. Not a single unprofitable season over the past 10 seasons.

Ohio State vs Michigan
Noon EST, Saturday
10-Unit Best Bet on Ohio State plus the 3 points

Since 1980, there have been 34 games pitting 10 or more-win teams against each other and the DOGS have gone 13-21, but 20-12-2 ATS for 63% winning bets. If both teams have 10 wins exact, the dog has gone 8-8 SU and 12-4 ATS for 75% and there have been just three matchups featuring 11-0 teams and the DOG is 3-0 SUATS.

Bet Over OSU points total of 20.5 points -115

Highest scoring half being the second +115

First Half three-way on OSU +150 to be leading at the half.
Note: OSU and Michigan have only been tied three times at the half since 1980 and the three-way line for a tie is only +600, which is horrid value. In those three games that were tied at the half OSU won all three games.

In a matchup of undefeated teams in weeks 12 or 13, the dog has gone 8-10 SU and 14-4 ATS for 78% winning bets since 1987. If the dog is priced at single-digits, they have gone 7-5 SU and 9-3 ATS for 75% winners.

I absolutely love the OSU defense right now and that is the part of this team no one is talking about. Since allowing 17 points in a 37-17 win over Maryland they have allowed an average of 8.5 PPG over their last six games. They have allowed more than 200 passing yards just one this season and that was back in Week 3 action where they won 63-10 over Western Kentucky and second and third stringers were in the game. So, overall OSU ranks 2nd in scoring defense allowing 9.5 PPG and second to Michigan, who is #1 allowing 9 PPG, but have played a much easier schedule. OSU ranks best nationally with a 0.145 points per play ratio, best allowing 3.9 YPPL, second-best allowing 27% third down conversions, best allowing 4.7 YPPA, and #2 allowing 145 PYPG.

Michigan is not a good passing team ranking 61st averaging 228 YPG so they are going to struggle mightily to move the chains on any third and long situation.

This game could come down a field goal and that is not good news for Michigan, who ranks 124th of 137 D1 programs making just 56% of their attempts this season. OSU ranks 15th converting 88% of their field goal attempts.

From the model we are expecting OSU to score 24 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games OSI when in this role have gone 145-5 SU and 106-40-4 ATS for 73% winners and when priced as the road dog, they are 9-1 ATS for 90% winners.

UTSA vs Tulane
3:30 ET | ABC
Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA
10-UNIT BEST BET on UTSA plus the 3.5 points and is valid if they remain the dog.

Betting on road underdogs that are scoring between 28 and 34 PPG, facing a foe with a defense allowing an average between 16 and 21 PPG, after week 6 of the regular season and is coming off a game in which they scored 24 or more points in the first half has earned a highly profitable 22-10 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team also scored 42 or more points in their previous game, the improve to a stellar 15-6 ATS for 71.4% winners.

Betting on road teams facing a foe that has lost to the spread by 49 or more total points over their last 5 games with the game occurring in weeks 10 through 13 has earned a solid 60-28-1 ASTS mark for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. If our road team has three or fewer losses on the season, they soar to a 23-9-1 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 5 seasons.

UTSA is 14-1 SU when facing a defense allowing 58% or higher completion percentage over the past two seasons; 11-1 SU when facing an elite offense that is gaining 5.9 or more yards per play over the past three seasons.

Ole Miss vs Mississippi State
7:30 PM EST Thanksgiving Day
8-UNIT Best Bet on Mississippi State plus the 10 points and sprinkle a bit on the money line too.

Ole Miss is on a 2-9 ATS streak following a game in which forced no more than a single turnover. Betting on home underdogs between +155 and +325 on the money line that are coming of a game in which they did not commit a turnovers and now facing a foe that has committed no more than a single turnover in each of their two previous games has gone 23-17 SU averaging a +198 money line wager and earning a highly profitable 92% ROI.

Miss State needs the qin to become bowl eligible and there are 8 returning starters on that offense that will want to do just that especially against their state rival Ole Miss squad. I think that motivating factor for State is significant and may be the edge that gets them within single digits and a possible win.

Syracuse vs Georgia Tech
Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta
8:00 ET
8-Unit Best Bet on Syracuse plus the 6.5 points

Consider betting the Orange with 60% of your normal betting amount for an 8-Unit Titan. Then if the first score of the game is a TD by GT add 30% on the LIVE in-game line. Next, add the remaining 10% if GT earns the first two scores of the game by two TDs or a TD followed by a FG or even a safety. The next scenario for either the 30% or the 10% is to bet Syracuse if they lose the lead during the first half of action.

Betting on teams that allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games and facing a foe that is coming off a loss by 17 or more points has earned a 345-86 SU record and a 249-175-7 ATS mark good for 59% winning bets since 2009. If we drill down and filter that our team is on the road, their record improves to 163-47 (78%) and 138-70-2 ATS for 66% winning bets. If then add in only those games with a total between 50 and 54.5 points their record soars to a remarkable 48-10 SU (83%) and 43-15 ATS mark for 74% winning tickets. If our team is a dog of 2.5 or more points, they have gone 9-1 ATS for 90% winners.

Both teams need the win to be bowl eligible and Syracuse does have a winnable game against Wake Forest in their finale. G-Tech has No. 1 Georgia on deck and no chance to win that game so there is a lot on the line for both programs. I like what I saw out of the Orange offense last week in their 28-13 road win over Pittsburgh scoring 21 points in the second half and hold Pitt scoreless. Granted, it was on a neutral field, but nevertheless the Orange looked solid on both sides of the ball, and I see that positive development carrying over to this game as well.

Oregon vs Arizona State
4:00 PM EST
Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ
8-Unit best Bet on ASU plus the 24.5 points

•        23-10 ATS for 70% winning tickets since 2006.

•       If our team is playing at home

4-3 SU | 6-1 ATS (86%) since 2015

LIVE in-game strategy is to bet 80% preflop at +24.5 and then look for Oregon to score a touchdown and look to get the remaining 20% at 27.5 or more points during the first half of action.

No.3 Michigan vs Maryland
SECU Stadium, College Park, MD
12:00 ET
8-Unit Best Bet on Maryland plus the 18.5 points and sprinkle the money line.

Undefeated teams play on the road as a conference favorite and facing a host that Has won 60% or more of their games from Week 10 on out have gone 46-61-1 ATS for 57% winners and if the host is coming off a conference win and covered the spread by 7 or fewer points has earned a 5-10 ATS mark for 33% winners. So, fading these undefeated teams is the way to go late in the regular season.

From the predictive model, we learn that Maryland has gone 8-2 ATS as a home dog when they have had fewer turnovers than the guest and 12-6 ATS when having the same or fewer turnovers.

Buffalo vs Miami (Ohio)

7 ET, Wednesday

8-Unit Best bet on the Buffalo Bulls plus the 9

points and is valid if the price stays above 8

points.

Betting on a road team that has struggled to win 25 to 40% of their games, facing a winning record host and has seen their last three games play Under the total by at least 21 points in total has earned a solid 86-56-2 ATS for 61% winners since 2014. If the host has covered at least 5 of their last 6 games ATS, our road warriors have gone 11-5-1 ATS for 69% winning bets.

Western Michigan vs Northern Illinois
7 PM | ESPNU
Huskie Stadium, Dekalb, IL
8-Unit best Bet on Northern Illinois minus the

From the predictive models we are looking for Northern Illinois to sacore at least 30 points and gain at least 7.5 yards per pass tonight. In past home games in which NIU achieved these measures has led them to a highly profitable 54-10 and 46-18 ATS for 72% winning bets since 2006 and 9-3 ATS over the past 5 seasons. They are also 13-5-1 ATS for 72% when scoring 30 or more points and their foe had 60 or more penalty yards called over the past five seasons.

Take Northern Illinois

Toledo vs Bowling Green
Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH

7:00 PM ESPN2
8-Unit best bet on Blowing Green plus the 10.5 points and is valid down to 9.5 points.

Betting on home dogs that have won three straight games that are taking on a foe that is coming off one or more consecutive wins has gone 95-61-2 ATS for 61% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is priced between 3.5 and 12 points, they have gone to a 57-30-1 ATS for 66% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in these games has been 50 or more points, our home dogs have gone 43-20-1 ATS for 68.3% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Bet Bowling Green.

USC vs Oregon
8-Unit best bet on USC plus the 15.5 points and is good as long as USC is a double-digit underdog.

This is an insane amount of points to be giving USC, who has stumbled lately, and who is getting mispriced because of Oregon’s monster blowout win of Cal last week (Oregon was our PAC-12 MAX Bet of the Month).

Before the season began, the Circa had this game priced as Oregon favored by just two points and this meteoric rise is presenting a terrific betting opportunity. USC has not covered the spread in seven straight games and the OVER has won the money in these games.

Betting on road teams using the money line that allowed 42 or more points in their last game and have outscored their foes by 7 or more points in the first half of action has earned a 60-33 record for 65% winning bets and has made a highly profitable 42 units on the money line.

From the predictive model we learn that USC is 18-4 ATS for 82% winning bets when they have scored 31 or more points and won the turnover battle in games played over the past five seasons.

Texas vs TCU

Amon G. Carter Stadium, Forth Worth, TX
7:30 PM EST | ABC
8-Unit Best bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 12.5 points

Betting on a ranked double-digit favorite facing an unranked foe. Our favorite is gaining an average of 4.8 yards per rush, outgained their previous foe by 125 or more yards on the ground, is now facing an average ground attack averaging 4.3 to 4.8 YPRA has earned a solid 34-20-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Betting road favorites between 10 and 21.5 points that have won four of their last 5 games with the current game taking place in November has earned a 49-6 SU record and 37-18 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Washington State vs California
California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA
4:00 PM EST
10-Unit Best Bet on Washington State plus the points, currently priced as 2.5-point dogs.

Betting on road underdogs that are averaging at least 400 total yards per game and are coming off a very poor offensive game in which they averaged 3.85 or fewer yards per play has earned a 35-12-3 ATS record good for 75% winning bets since 2015. If the game occurs from Week 9 on to the end of the season has earned a 19-5-3 ATS mark good for 79% winning bets since 2015.

Betting on losing record road teams priced between the 3’s and is facing a host that is coming off a road blowout loss of 28 or more points, and that host has won 25 to 40% of their games on the season has earned a 37-13-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the last 30 years and is 17-5 ATS over the past 10 seasons.

From the predictive playbook, we are expecting WSU to score at least 28 points and to have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which WSU met or excee3ded th4ese projections has led them to a 59-15 SU record and a 57-17 ATS mark good for 77% winning bets.

Texas Tech vs Kansas

Noon ET
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium

8-Unit Best Bet on Kansas minus the points, currently priced at -4 and is good up to and including 6 points. That steam move is not expected to happen and see the market locked in at -4.

Betting on home teams from week 8 on out to the end of the regular season that are averaging 190 to 230 rushing yards per game, allowed less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game, and now facing an average rushing team gaining between 140 and 190 RYPG has earned a solid 49-15 SU record and 43-18-3 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets since 2015. If our team is in a conference matchup and favored by any amount, the record improves to a highly profitable 25-8-1 ATS for 76% winning bets. Take Kansas

Southern Mississippi vs LA Lafayette
Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA
7:30 PM | ESPNU
8-Unit Best Bet on the Ragin Cajuns minus the points.

The Cajuns are averaging 197 rushing yards per game ranking 14th nationally and will be facing a defense that ranks 114th nationally allowing 186 RYPG. So, the models are projecting that the Cajuns will wear down the SMU defensive front and gain over 200 RY. The models also project that the Cajuns will gain 450 or more total yards and commit no more than single turnover.

In past games, the Cajuns are 54-10 SU and 47-15-1 ATS for 76% winning bets when scoring 31 or more points and gaining 450 or more total yards. In addition, if they committed no more than a single turnover, they have gone 34-5 SU and 32-7 ATS for 82% winning bets.

Central Michigan vs Western Michigan
Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI

7:00 PM EST, ESPNU

8-Unit best bet on Western Michigan Broncos minus the -3 points.

From the predictive models, we are expecting WMU to score 31 or more points, The market has a 30 to 27 WMU home win given the 57.5 point total and WMU favored by three points, In past games in which WMU scored 31 points and had the same or fewer turnovers has led them to an outstanding 16-1 SU and 14-2-1 ATS for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Kansas vs Iowa State
7 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on Iowa State -3 points. I like this bet up to and including 4 points.

Betting on home teams that are coming off a double-digit road win and hosting a team coming off an upset win over a conference rival priced as 6 or more-point underdogs has earned a 109-20 SU record good for 85% wins and 86-42-1 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets over the past 43 seasons (since 1980). If that foe is ranked in the Top-25, the home team has gone 7-1 ATS and SU.

California vs Oregon
5:30 PM, Autzen Stadium
10-Unit Best Bet on Oregon minus the points

Bet on favorites between 21.5 and 31.5 points that are averaging 200 or more rushing yards per game and whose defense has held their previous three opponents to 125 or fewer rushing yards in each game has produced a highly profitable 63-5 SU record and 46-18-4 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets since 2010. This system has had 18 consecutive seasons of profitability.

At No.6 Oregon has all the motivation to play well and four all four quarters even if they do run the score up on California. The CFP committee served notice that margin of victory over conference foes does matter when they selected Ohio State as No. 1 this past week.

Oregon is 14-4 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons. Cal is just 4-14 ATS home a home loss, but did cover the spread. They lost 50-49 to USC last week. Oregon head coach Lanning is 9-2 ATS after scoring 31 or more points in each of their last three games.

Betting on favorites between 21.5 and 31.5 points that have scored 31 or more points in each of their two previous games and has a great defense that is allowing an average 16 PPG on the season and is facing a foe that has a bad defense allowing 28 to 34 PPG has produced a 61-3 SU record and 41-23 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets since 1992. If our favorite is hosting the game, their record has been 32-1 SU and 23-10 ATS for 70% winning bets since 1992. The clincher here is if our home favorite has scored 31 or more points in three straight games, the record soars to 35-1 SU and 28-8 ATS for 78% winning bets regardless of game site.  

The current market implies a 42-18 Oregon win and the predictive model shows a high probability that Oregon is going to score at least 35 points in this contest. Even when they score 28 or more points they have earned a 28-15-1 ASTS mark for 65% winners; 24-9 ATS mark when scoring 35 or more points; 14-3 ATS when scoring 42 or more points in games played over the past five seasons. When at home and scoring 42 or more points they are 8-2 ATS for 80%.

Florida State vs Pittsburgh

Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh

3:30 PM ESPN

8-Unit best bet on FSU minus the points

No. 4 Florida State (8-0, 6-0 ACC) will travel to Pittsburgh (2-6, 1-3 ACC) to take on their fellow ACC foe Panthers set to start at 3:30 PM and will be televised by ESPN. FSU elected to start the season having to face two powerhouse ranked teams starting with the LSU Tigers in Week 1 and then their ACC rival Clemson Tigers in Week 4 and won them both on the road. Having played an won these games against ranked opponents has made FSU a much better team and one that I see going undefeated and being voted into the College Football Playoffs.

Following this game, FSU will host their ACC and state rival Miami Hurricanes next Saturday, then play their home finale against Northern Alabama, and then the season finale at Gainesville to face the SEC Florida Gators. They will be favored in every game and I see them winning by double-digits against Miami and Florida.

FSU ranks 4th nationally averaging 41.5 PPG and rank 18th allowing 18.3 PPG having played a difficult schedule. Pittsburgh ranks 116th averaging 19.1 PPG and ranks 101st allowing 31.9 PPG. So, FSU is outscoring their foes by 23.2 PPG while Pittsburgh is getting outscored by an average of 12.8 PPG. Simply stated, this is a monumental mismatch that warrants a line at least seven more points higher than the current price of 21.5 points.

FSU quarterback Jordan Travis is having a sensational season throwing for 2,109 yards with 18 touchdowns, just two interceptions and earning an 156 rating. Against the six conference foes he has faced he has completed 65% of his passes for 1,592 yards with 12 touchdowns and earning a 154 rating. Their formidable ground attack is led by Trey Benson, who has gained 544 rushing yards on 85 carries including seven scores. He accounts for only 41% of the 1,342 rushing yards gained on the season and reflects their strong depth at the running back position.

FSU has six receivers, who have caught 13 or more passes this season and are led by Keon Coleman with 38 catches, 538 receiving yards and nine scores. For the season, there have been 10 different receivers, who have accounted for the 21 receiving touchdowns. So, the Pittsburgh defense is not going to be capable of stopping this offense and I see them scoring at least 41 points in this game.

A Highly Profitable Situation to Bet FSU

FSU is supported by a terrific situation that has produced a 46-1 SU record for 98% wins and has earned a 33-14 ATS record good for 70.2% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are:

·      Bet on road teams that have won more than 75% of their games.

·      Is favored by 19.5 or more-points.

·      Our team has covered the spread in at least five of their last 7 games.

·      Our team is facing a losing record host

No. 11 Oregon State vs Arizona
10:30 PM ESPN

10-Unit best Bet on the Wildcats plus the 3 points

Betting on non-ranked home underdogs bet3een pick and 4.5 points that are facing a foe that is ranked and coming off a win that covered the spread by 3.5 to 10 points has produced a 27-20 SU record and 31-16 ATS mark for 66% winning bets sine 1993.

Betting on home underdogs that are taking on a foe that allowed 5.5 or more RYPA in each of their last two games has gone 31-44 SU and 47-27-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If facing a conference foe these home dogs have gone 29-35 SU and 43-20-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. If home team is priced as a 5.5 or fewer-point dog, they have gone 17-17 SU and 23-10-1 ATS for 70% winning bets.

Oregon State ranks 14th in scoring offense averaging 35.3 PPG and has the best red zone scoring offense in the nation. They produce scoring drives with their solid rushing attack ranking 28th gaining an average of 183 yards per game. However, Arizona has a great defensive front that ranks 19th nationally allowing just 99 YPG. Arizona can bring the heat effectively too in passing downs getting a sack on 9% on all plays run ranking 21st nationally. Plus, they get the job done in preventing multiple first down scoring drives averaging just 45% of the game on the field and ranks 13th best nationally. So, the OSU ground game is not going to have an easy time running the ball in this matchup – not saying they won’t gain over 100 yards, but it will be a struggle for them to do so.

Arizona can run the ball and have gained 1159 yards on 227 carries for a solid 5.1 YPRA. Jonah Coleman is the featured back and has gained 433 yards on 65 rushes for a 6.7 yards per carry with 3 TDs. Arizona ranks 8th nationally completing 72% of their passes and rank 37th allowing a sack on just 4.6% of plays run.

No. 21 Tennessee vs. Kentucky

Kroger Field, Lexington, KY

7:00 PM | ESPN

8-Unit best bet on the Wildcats plus the points

currently priced at +3.5 points.

Betting on dogs between 1.5 and 6 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 has produced a 32-24 SU record and a highly profitable 38-17-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team has not covered the spread in four consecutive games, their record soars to 9-11 SU and 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2015. If our team is playing at home, their record soars to 19-10 SU and 21-7-1 ATS for 75% winning bets.

Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Monroe

5:00 PM EST Week 9

8-Unit Best bet on Arkansas State plus the points

Betting on dogs between 1.5 and 6 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 has produced a 32-24 SU record and a highly profitable 38-17-1 ATS mark good for 69% winning bets since 2015. If our team has scored 24 or fewer points in total over their past 2 games has improved the results to 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS for 77% winning bets since 2015.

Syracuse vs Virginia Tech
7:30 EST, ESPN
8-Unit best bet on the Orange plus the points

Syracuse has been coming up on the radar more so this season than in others and that’s ok no matter if they are 4-3 or 7-0 or even 0-7 as the models present us with opportunities to exploit based on the situations teams find themselves in any matchup. After starting out 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS, the Orange suddenly ran out of fire power on the offensive side of the ball. They scored 14 points in a 31-14 loss to Clemson, then 12 days ago lost to No. 4 ranked FSU 41-3 as failed to cover as 19-point dogs at Tallahassee. In the second to last game, they lost at UNC 40-7 as 9.5-point road dogs. They had five turnovers in the first four games and then turned it over 7 times in the past three games. So, at this point everyone is highly suspect of the Orange and rightfully so based on recency bias alone.

V-Tech is not in the same class as UNC, Clemson, and FSU and few teams in the ACC, if any, would have been able to win on the road against those programs in consecutive weeks. The Orange have extra motivation to win the game and get one step closer to earning a bowl game appearance while at 3-4 V-Tech has little hope of getting to six wins knowing they are on the road at Louisville and BC, then a home finale against a solid NC State program and then a possible win at UVA.

Betting on road dogs between 2.5 and 10 points that are coming off two consecutive horrid double-digit losses to conference foes and have played UNDER in three of their last four games has produced a 41-50 SU record and a highly profitable 60-28-3 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets since 2015. If our team has not covered the spread in four consecutive games, their record soars to 9-11 SU and 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2015.

The base system mentioned first above has had just one losing record season going 2-5 ATS in 2021 over the past 10 seasons.

The Orange are 41-23 ATS following a game in which they allowed 6.75 or more YPPL. V-Tech is on an 0-6 ATS streak after having won three of their last 4 games.

Liberty vs Western Kentucky
7:30 PM EST on ESPNU
Houchens Industries – L.T. Smith Stadium
8-Unit best bet on Western Kentucky plus the points.

Betting on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing a foe that is coming off three consecutive wis over conference foes and has nine or fewer returning starters from last season have gone 52-20-2 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 30 seasons and is 15-3-1 ATS for 83% winners over the past 10 seasons.

Betting on home underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points following a game in which they committed no more than a single turnover and facing a foe coming off two consecutive games in which they had a turnover margin of one or better has earned a highly profitable 20-10 ATS for 67% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Western Kentucky is 21-7 ATS over the past three seasons for 75% winning bets in games that they score 28 or more points and the predictive model projects an 82% probability that they will score 30 or more points.

Duke vs Florida State
Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
7:30 PM EST, ABC
8-Unit Best Bet on the Seminoles minus the 14 points

In a matchup of ranked teams where the home team is ranked in the Top-15 and favored by double digits and hosting a foe that is ranked 15th or higher in the latest poll and a total of 50 or fewer points have gone 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS.

Duke is 1-9 ATS following a blowout win of 21 or more points over a conference rival. FSU is 10-1 ATS following three straight games facing conference foes. UNC coming off a 24-3 win as 4-point favorites over NC State.  FSU is 6-0 on the season and coming off a 41-3 dominated win over Syracuse. They have scored 31 or more points in every game and have played a more difficult schedule than Duke. FSU played then No.5 LSU on a neutral field and won 45-24 and then two weeks later traveled to Clemson and won 31-24.

No. 2 Michigan vs Michigan State
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
7:30 EST NBC
8-Unit best bet on the Spartans plus the 24.5 points.

Michigan is 12-26 ATS in road games following a game in which they covered the spread by double-digits; 2-11 ATS following a game in which they scored 50 or more points.

Betting on dogs between 21 and 25.5 points following three or more straight-up losses and facing a conference foe in the month of October has earned a highly profitable 38-20-3 ATS for 65.5% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. This is a rivalry game and for Michigan State is their season as nothing else will really matter for them the remainder of the season.

Penn State vs Ohio State

Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

Noon ET

10-Unit Best Bet on Penn State plus the 5 points.

Consider betting this game with 8-units preflop and then look to add the remaining two units on PSU if OSU scores a TD first or regains the lead during the first half of action. From the models, there is a solid chance that if the research is correct, that PSU scores first and wins the game, which would eliminate any opportunity to get the 2-unit placed. Instead, playing a 6-Unit bet on the line and a 2-Unit bet on the money line preflop is a solid strategy too.

PSU has one of the top offensive yards per point ratio in the nation – even factoring out the scrimmages against UMASS and Delaware. Teams that are ranked in the Top-10 from week 7 on out, and have posted a 46-7 SU record and a 31-22 ATS mark for 59% winning bets. If the team has a YPPT of 11 or lower (more efficient) and priced as a road dog have gone 20-12-1 ATS for 63% winners.

The quarterback comparison is heavily in favor of PSU. In games against ranked AP opponents, Drew Allar has earned a 141 QB rating, completed 68% of his passes, averaged 166 passing yards per game and thrown for four touchdowns. He has yet to throw an interception in any game. OSU’s Kyle McCord has posted a 111 QBR, completed only 57% of his passes, averaging 240 passing yards and throwing ZERO touchdowns.

Now, McCord has to go up against arguably the best defense in the nation that ranks #2 nationally allowing 8.2 PPG, best allowing 204 YPG, #2 allowing 0.128 points-per-play, best allowing 3.2 YPP, 8th allowing a 28% third down conversion rate, second allowing 67.4 rushing yards per game and allowing 2.1 yards per rush, best allowing 51% completion percentage, best allowing 4.9 yards per pass, #2 with a 14% sack percentage.

Penn State defeated UMASS 63-0 last week. That result may seem completely irrelevant for this game, but note that teams that scored 58 or more points and allowed six or fewer points in their previous game and now are priced as a road dog have gone 28-16 ATS for 64% since 1980 and if facing a conference foe they have gone 14-6 ATS for 70% winners.

PSU QB Drew Allar has a canon for an arm and despite the grey skies, I do believe you will see vertical crossing routes deep down the field using play action. PSU offensive line is tremendous and the best unit that Franklin has ever had. The ground attack is going to control the line of scrimmage and then when you see the OSU safeties creep closer and closer to the LOS to support the run defense I when these ’bomb’s will be thrown. Note, too, that OSU has allowed and gotten 10 sacks on the season. PSU has 26 sacks 50 tackles for loss and has allowed a sack on just 2.4% of all plays run ranking 9th-best nationally.

PSU is the better team on the OL and DL and we are getting points.

SMU vs Temple
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
7:00 PM EST, ESPN
8-Unit Best Bet on the SMU Mustangs minus the points

Betting on road teams that allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games and now taking on a host that scored 17 or fewer points in their last game has earned a 133-66-2 ATS record for 67% winners. If the game is a conference matchup and our road team is favored by 17 or more points, the record soars to 45-3 SU, 34-14 ATS for 71% winners since 2010.

Betting on road teams that are facing a host that has had a -1 or worse turnover margin in four consecutive games has gone 87-41-4 ATS for 68% winners over the past 10 seasons. If our road team is a double-digit favorite, they soar to 28-10-1 ATS for 74% winning bets.

James Madison vs Marshall
Jean C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, WV
7 EST on ESPN
8-Unit Best Bet on Marshall plus the points

JMU is off to a perfect 6-0 start and are one of 11 undefeated FBS teams left in the nation. Marshall is a member of the Sun Belt and they need to a win to keep pace for the conference lead with Georgia State given that JMU is not eligible having moved up from the FCS last season. Also, JMU is coming off a monster win on the scoreboard winning by 28 points but outgaining Georgia Southern by just 18 total yards.

Betting on home dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points following a game  in which they committed no more than one turnover and facing a foe that has turned in a +1 turnover advantage in each of their previous two games has produced a highly profitable 20-9-3 ASTS for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons.

NCAAF Thursday Night Sun Belt

Florida International vs. Sam Houston State

Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX

8-Unit Best Bet on FIU plus the points, currently priced at 5.

With the total priced at 41 points, scoring volatility will be below normal and limits the opportunity for a live in-game first half bet. So, I recommend placing the 8-Units all at once preflop.

Betting on dogs of 4.5 to 9.5 points in weeks 5 through 9 of the regular season that are coming off back-to-back conference losses of 10 or more points have gone 27-33 SU and 42-17-1 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2015.

USC vs Notre Dame

Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Damer, IN

7:30 EST NBC/Peacock

8-Unit Best Bet on the Trojans plus the 2.5 points.

This game is a matchup of ranked teams with USC taking to the road with a 6-0 SU record to take on a desperate Notre Dame squad with two losses on the season. USC is 2-4 ATS and 5-1 Over for the season. The Irish are 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS including a 4-3 Under result on the season. USC  has lost to the spread and seen the Over win the money in each of their last three games. Notre Dame has lost two of their last three games in a most-difficult schedule and covered the spread in just one. Notre Dame lost 17-14 hosting Ohio State, then took to the road and won a tough-fought game 21-14 at Duke, and then another road game losing at Louisville by the final score of 33-20. The Irish team is experiencing a fatigue problem on both sides of the ball, but regardless will have to be fully prepared if they have hopes of upsetting USC and their reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Smith.

Supporting USC is the following betting system that has produced a 23-24 SU record and 25-12 ATS record for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are:

1.     Bet on a road teams priced between the 4’s.

2.     That road team is coming off a game in which they and their foe scored 31 or more points in their previous game.

3.     The game is a non-conference matchup.

No. 14 Louisville vs Pittsburgh

Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

8-Unit Best Bet on the Pitt Panthers plus the six points and sprinkle the money line.

6:30 PM EST

Betting on home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points coming off two straight double-digit losses to conference foes in weeks 5 through 9 and with the total of at least 40 points has earned a strong 21-25 SU record and 32-12-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Now, be sure to be sitting down for this subset. If our home dog has won no more than one game on the season, they soar to an unreal 10-9 SU and 15-3-1 ATS record good for 83% winning bets.

No. 8 Oregon vs No. 7 Washington

8:00 EST, Thursday

10-Unit Best Bet on Washington minus the points, currently priced as 3-point favorites.

Betting on teams priced between the 3’s and facing a foe following four consecutive games in which they covered the spread has produced a 39-15 SU record for 72% and 40-14 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons. Not one losing record and went 14-1 ATS in 2021. If our team is playing at home and facing a conference foe, their record has gone 20-5 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons.

From the predictive model, we learn that Washington is 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS for 75% when scoring 35 or more points and gaining at least 7.4 yards per play. Washington is also 7-1 ATS when having 10 or more first downs and gaining at least 6 YPPL. Last, Washington is 31-2 SU and 28-4-1 ATS when scoring 28 or more points and having 10 or more first downs than their foes.

10-UNIT PAC-12 MAX Best Bet Game of the Month

Troy vs Army

Michie Stadium, West Point, NY

3:30 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on Troy minus the 6 points

Betting on road teams with a win percentage of at least 60% and coming off a conference win allowing less than 10 points has earned an outstanding 58-34-3 ATS record for 63% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If the host has a losing record on the season (Army), our road teams have gone 22-10-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If the total is 55 or fewer points, our road team has produced a highly profitable 10-0 ATS.

Take Troy.

Syracuse Orange vs. No. 4 Florida State

Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL

Noon EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the Orange +18.5 points

From the predictive model, we are expecting the Orange offense to outperform the market’s expectations by scoring 26 or more points in this game. Betting OVER the Orange team total is valid. Consider betting 5 to 6 units on Syracuse plus the points and the remaining 1 to 2 units OVER the team total.

Now, in past games in which the Orange scored 26 or more points and scored in each quarter has produced a 40-7 SU record, 38-8-1 ATS mark for 83% winning bets. In road games dressed as a conference dog and scoring in at least 3 of the 4 quarters has produced a 7-7 SU record and an 11-2-1 ATS mark good for 85% winning bets.

A little sprinkle on the money line is warranted – just in case.

Indiana vs Michigan

Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI

Noon EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the Wolverines minus the points

Betting on a team that has won their last three games by at least 21 points and facing a foe that lost their last game by 17 or more points has produced an exceptional 77-8 SU record and a 59-25-1 ATS mark for 70% winning bets since 2010. Now, if that foe is coming off a loss to a conference foe the record improves to a stellar 47-17-1 ATS for 73.4% winning bets since 2010. Drilling a bit deeper into the data, if our team is favored by 21 or more points, they soar to 44-0 SU and 34-9-1 ATS for 79% winning bets since 2010.

A second algorithm has produced a 31-16 ATS mark for 66% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to bet on an undefeated team favored by 21 or more points that has won their last two games by 28 or more points and facing a foe that allowed 37 or more points in their last game.

Fresno State vs Utah State

8:00 PM EST, Friday

8-Unit Best Bet on Fresno State minus the points, currently priced as a 4-point favorite.

The following betting algorithm has produced a 278-70 SU record for 80% wins and 207-137-4 ATS for 60% winning bets over the past 12 seasons. The requirements are to bet on road favorites that are averaging 31 or more PPG and facing a foe that is coming off back-to-back games in which 60 or more points were scored in each game.

If our road favorite is facing a conference foe and coming off an upset loss, the record improves to 33-6 SU for 85% wins and 26-12-1 ATS for 68% winning bets since 2012.

FSU head coach Tedford is 30-15-1 ATS for 67% winners as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. USU head coach Anderson is just 2-11 ATS after gaining 575 or more3 total yards in their previous game.

Ryan’s NCAAF Friday Night Lights Best Bet

West Virginia vs Houston

7:00 EST, Thursday

8-Unit Best Bet on Houston plus the points

Houston is 18-6 ATS for 75% winners when facing a team that averages fewer than one forced turnover per game; 32-16-1 ATS after having failed to cover the spread in two of their last three games; 11-1 SU in home games following two straight games in which they did not turn the ball over more than once in games played over the past three seasons.

Betting on teams priced between the 3’s and facing a foe following four consecutive games in which they covered the spread has produced a 39-15 SU record for 72% and 40-14 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons. Not one losing record and went 14-1 ATS in 2021.

Liberty at Jacksonville State

7:30 EST, Tuesday

Burgess-Snow Field, Jacksonville, AL

8-Unit Best Bet on Liberty minus the points, currently -6

Let’s get right into the betting algorithm supporting this best bet opportunity produced from the predictive model. This one has earned a 33-33 record, but a highly profitable 41-21-4 ATS for 66.1% winning bets over the past 8 seasons going back to 2014. The requirements are to bet on teams in a matchup of soldi teams that each have won 80% or more of their games on the season and with the foe having covered the spread by 49 or more points over the past five games. Now, if our team is favored by 4.5 to 9.5 points, the record soars to a highly profitable 12-4-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Liberty is undefeated at 5-0 and has covered the spread in four of those five games losing to the spread last game against Sam Houston State. JAX State is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS. They have covered their last five games by 62.5 points and by 67 points on the season. So, this is the achievement level in which we would expect JAX State to experience some form of regression and a market that has now over valued them. In fact, home dogs of 6 or more points that have covered the spread by 60 or more points over their last 6 games have gone just 4-19 SU and 7-16 ATS for 30% wins.

Georgia Tech vs No. 17 Miami (FLA)

8:00 PM EST
10-UNIT Best Bet on the Hurricanes minus the 20 points

Betting on home favorites of 11.5 or more points in games with a posted total between 42.5 and 59.5 points and hosting a foe that is fresh off a humiliating loss of 17 or more points as a home favorite of 10 or more points have earned an outstanding 47-4 SU record and a 37-13-1 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and 36-1 SU and 27-9-1 ATS since 2006. If this game is a matchup of conference foes, the favorite has gone 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets.

From the predictive model, we are expecting the Hurricanes to score 35 or more points and when they have in home games have earned a highly profitable 4-0 SU and ATS and covering the number by an average of 9 PPG under current head coach Mario Cristobal.

Vanderbilt vs Florida

8-Unit best bet on the Florida Gators minus the points

4:00 EST SECN

Betting on conference favorites between 13.5 and 19.5 points that are playing with revenge from a last season loss priced as a double-digit favorite and taking on a foe that is fresh off a loss priced as a dog have gone a highly profitable 31-4 SU and 25-10 ATS for 71.4% winning bets over the past 25 seasons of action and 6-2 ASTS over the past five seasons.

Florida is 16-3-1 ATS in home games when facing a poor rushing team that is gaining an average of just 120 or fewer yards per game. Vanderbilt is 0-6 ATS this season and 13-35 ATS following a game in which they have allowed 325 or more passing yards.

Road conference dogs are just 18-29-3 ATS for 38% if they have lost 6 or more consecutive games to the spread, lost 4 or more consecutive games SU and have two or fewer wins on the season.

Washington State vs UCLA

3:00 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on UCLA minus the 3.5 points

Again, consider betting 5.5 units preflop on UCLA and then look to get 1.5 more units on UCLA at Pick-em and then 1-Unit at +2.5. This game has a total of 60+ points and the scoring volatility is coming to be quite high so let it work in your favor.

Unranked home favorites facing a conference foe that is ranked 10th to 25th in the current poll and with a game total between 52.5 and 65 points have gone 31-20 ATS for 61% winners.

LSU vs Missouri

Noon PM EST, 10/7

8-Unit best bet on the LSU Tigers minus the points.

Consider betting 6-units preflop on the Tigers and then look for Missouri to score the first TD of the game and get the remaining 2-units on the Tigers at pick-em or as close to pick-em as possible.

Here is a situational betting algorithm that has produced a 41-14 SU record and am32-21-2 ATS record for 61% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and is 8-3 ATS over the past seven seasons. The requirements are to bet on road favorites in a conference matchup that are ranked lower in the current AP poll. LSU is 23rd while undefeated Missouri is 21st. if our team is coming off a loss, they soar to 13-5-2 ATS for 72% winning bets and if they scored 27 or more points in that loss are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS

LSU has two losses and Missouri has none, but LSU has played a much more difficult schedule. You may recall we had Ole Miss as a 10-UNIT MAX Bet winner over LSU last week and with the other loss taking place in Week 1 over highly ranked FSU.

There have been reports of player descension in the locker room over head coach Kelly. I do not put much weight in the handicapping of this game, because at the end of the day, many of the players in that locker room have much bigger goals of playing in the NFL.

Oklahoma vs Texas

Noon EST, October 7, Week 6

8-Unit best bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the points

Betting on teams that have won 80% or more of their games and facing a foe that has covered the spread by 49 or more points spanning their last five games and also has won 80% or more of their games on the season has produced a highly profitable 29-13-3 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.

Teams, like Texas, who they and their current foe in week 6 action has no more than one loss and with that foe having covered the spread by 42 or more points over their first five games has gone 9-4-1 ATS for 69% winning bets. Also, teams, like Texas, who are coming off a game in which they gained 300 or more rushing and 300 or more passing yards in their previous game have gone 96-29 (77%) and 71-52-2 ATS for 58% winning bets. If facing an undefeated conference foe has gone 6-1 SU and ATS for 86% winning bets.

In the red river rivalry, Texas is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS for 82% winners when scoring 31 or more points and the predictive model shows an 84% probability that Texas will score 31 or more points. Even if they score 28 or more points, Texas has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS for 85% winners.

Western Michigan vs Mississippi State

Noon EST, Saturday

8-Unit best bet on Mississippi State minus the points

Betting on favorites between 16 and 24.5 points and with a total between 48 and 61.5 points that are coming off a terrible loss of 20 or more points to a conference foe priced as an underdog and with the game occurring during the regular season have gone 59-2 SU, 45-16 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past 22 seasons.

The total of 57 points and State being favored by 20 points implies a State 38.5-18.5 point win. The predictive model shows an 82% probability that State will score at least 31 points and in past games in which they have done this, they have gone 40-6 SU and 36-9 ATS for 80% winning bets and if on the road facing a non-conference foe has produced a 17-1 SU record and a 13-5 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets.

Kansas State vs Oklahoma State

7:30 PM EST, 10/6

8-Unit best bet on the Oklahoma State Cowboys

plus 11.5 points.

Here is a situational betting algorithm that has produced a 33-45 SU record and a 47-25-6 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and is 10-1 ATS over the past three seasons. The requirements are to bet on a team that has a struggling defense that is allowing between 5.6 and 6.25 YPPL and is facing a team that has a solid offensive unit gaining at least 6.2 YPPL and has a defense that allowed 6.75 YPPL in each of their last two games. Over the past three seasons this algorithm has produced an 8-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets.

Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech

Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, LA

8:00 EST, October 5

8-Unit Best Bet on the LT Bulldogs plus the points

It is Thursday and we have two games scheduled in the C-USA. The Bulldogs are coming off a 24-10 win featuring a punt return for a TD over UTEP. JAX State won lasty night as an 8-Unit Best bet over Middle Tennessee State and leads the conference with a 3-0 record. The Bulldogs are 2-0 and W. Kentucky is 1-0 in conference play, so barring a tie, one of these teams will join the conference unbeaten ranks.

Betting on home underdogs ranging from 3.5 to 9.5 points that is coming off a game in which they committed no more than one turnover and facing a foe that has won the turnover battle in their past two games has earned a highly profitable 13-16 SU record and a 19-7-3 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Bulldogs head coach Sonny Cumbie is on a 6-0 ASTS run when playing on the road for the second consecutive week.

From the predictive mode, we are expecting the bulldogs to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers and when they have met these measures has produced a 74-14 SU record and 64-22-2 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets and when priced as a home pup has produced a 3-6 SU mark and a near-perfect 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets.

Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee State

Thursday, October 5

8-Unit best bet on Jacksonville State plus the points

Betting on a team that is coming off a game that soared over the total by at least 21 points, is a dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points, in the first 7 weeks of the regular season, and has won 70% or more of their games has earned a solid 27-15-2 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

MTST head coach Stockstill is 1-12 ATS when facing a team with a turnover margin of 1 or better per game.

From the predictive model, we are looking for JST to score 24 or more points and to commit the same or fewer turnovers. MTST is 8-21 and 5-24 ATS for 17% when allowing 24 or more points in home games and have the same or more turnovers.

Notre Dame vs Duke

Wallace Wade Stadium

7:30 PM EST

8-Unit Best Bet on the Duke plus the 5.5 points

In Week 1, we nailed Duke in their upset win over Clemson and here they are again poised to pull off an even bigger upset against a ranked Notre Dame team, who lost on the play of the game last week in South Bend over the Ohio State Buckeyes.

So, betting on home dogs between 3 and 10 points in a matchup of two teams that out rush their opponents by 60 or more YPG have gone 26-22 SU and 35-11 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the foe is a Top-25 ranked team, the record of these live dogs soars to 18-9 SU and 22-4-1 ATS for 85% winning bets.

Make no mistake about it, Duke has an excellent defense that can cause major problems for the Irish offense. The Irish are 11-26 ATS when facing a team, whose defense allows an average of 285 or fewer YPG; 14-34 ATS when facing a defense that allows 4.5 or fewer yards per play. Duke is on a 12-2 ATS win streak in games played on a grass field; 7-0 ASTS following a game in which they outgained the foe by 125 or more total yards; 10-1 ATS in home games played in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.

LSU vs Ole Miss

10-UNIT Best Bet on Ole Miss plus the points

6:00 PM EST

Let’s start with some analytics. Betting on home underdogs whose defense allows between 330 and 390 yards per game and facing a foe that averages 440 or more YPG and is coming off a game in which they allowed 6.25 or more YPPL have gone 85-41-2 ATS for 68% winning best over the past 25 seasons.

Ole Miss is 43-23 ATS when facing very good offenses averaging 34 or more PPG; 26-12-1 ATS in home games following two straight games in which they forced no more than one turnover in each game.

Betting on home underdogs using the money line that is an elite passing team gaining an average of 8.3 PYPA after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game and now facing a foe that is an average passing defense allowing 6.5 to 7.5 PYPA has earned a highly profitable 17-10 record for 62% winners averaging a +275 wager earning a 110% ROI over the past 10 seasons.

Betting on home teams using the money line in September that are facing a foe that is coming off a win by 7 or fewer points over a conference rival has gone 134-63-2 SU for 68% winners and 60-17 SU for 78% winners over the past 10 seasons. If in a conference matchup, our home team has gone 15-3 SU for 83% winning bets.

No. 24 Kansas vs No. 3 Texas

DKR – Texas Memorial Stadium

3:30 PM EST

8-Unit best bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 16 points

Kansas head coach Leipold is just 1-10 ATS in road games after out rushing their previous foe by at least 125 yards. Texas head coach Sarkisian is 6-0 ATS in home games following back-to-back games in which his defense no more than one turnover in each game.

From the predictive model, we are looking for Texas to out gain Kansas by at least 2 YPPL and or score. In past games in which Texas accomplished this has seen them go 25-1 SU and 19-7 ATS for 73% winners when at home and priced as a double-digit favorite.

Clemson vs Syracuse

Noon EST

8-UNIT best bet on Syracuse plus the points and sprinkle the money line

The Tigers are 2-11 ATS (15%) in the first 4 weeks last three seasons

The Orange is 12-3 SU, 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in the first 4 weeks last three seasons

The Orange is 44-23 SU, 43-24 ATS (64%) in home games after covering the spread in 2 of their last 3 since 1980

The Orange is 11-3 SU, 10-3-1 ATS (77%) in second straight home game since 2019

The Orange is 20-22 SU, 27-15 ATS (64%) after outgaining the previous foe by more than 100 yards

12-5 SU and ATS if the game is at home

Dino Babers is 20-10 Under  (67%) when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by >=10 PPG (potential defensive battle)

Coach Babers is 6-11 SU, 11-6 ATS, 13-4 Under (76%) when taking on a foe that allows 3 or fewer yards per rush

Dabo Swinney is 2-6 SU in road games after a game in which the forced zero turnovers

Coach Babers is 10-3 SU following back-to-back games gaining >=6.25 or more YPPL

Week 5: No. 6 Penn State vs Northwestern

Noon EST, 9-30

8-Unit Best Bet on Penn State -27 points and is good up to 29.5

8-Unit best bet Over the posted total of 47 points OR (Not Both) Over the team total for PSU 36.5 points OR 4-Units Over PSU team total and 4-UNITS OVER Game total

Parlay is NOT recommended

The undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions take to the road to take on the Big-Ten conference foe Northwestern Wildcats set to kickoff at Noon EST. Penn State is coming off an impressive, but largely unnoticed 31-0 dominating home win over the then-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes. After such a dominating win in which Penn State’s defense held Iowa to just four first downs, 56 passing yards and 26 rushing yards and outgained them by 321 total yards, they moved up one slot to No. 6 of the latest AP poll. That lack of attention is all the news info head coach James Franklin needs to motivate his team and avoid any minor letdown.

I wrote prior to the season that I had made a bet at 38:1 that Texas would take on Penn State in the College Football Playoff game. Penn State ranks 15th scoring an average of 40.5 PPG and 5th-best allowing an average of just 8.8 PPG of the 133 Division-1 programs. Penn State is priced at +1600 and even now with a 4-0 record represents the biggest undervalued team on the board to win the National Championship at BetMGM.

Another futures bet I have made based on the value currently offered at DraftKings is on Penn State sophomore and 5-Star recruit Drew Allar at +3500 to win the Heisman. Through four games he has completed 67.2% of his passes for 903 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He is getting better with each game and although he is a dark horse to win the Heisman, if Penn State defeats Ohio State on the road and then Michigan at home, you can bet he will be one of the contenders.

James Franklin has his best and most experienced offensive line and arguably the best unit in the Big Ten conference. The ground attack features last year’s Big Ten offensvie3 freshman of the year in Nicholas Singleton, who has 203 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Moreover, his running mate in the backfield returns in Kaytron Allen, who has 280 rushing yards and two touchdowns this season.

Under head coach James Franklin is 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets in road games facing a conference foe and scoring 28 or more points.

Louisville vs NC State

7:00 EST, ESPN

Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC

8-Unit best bet the Wolfpack plus the 3.5 points

NC State is 3-1 on the season and has not covered the spread in any of those four games. Their lone loss was at the hands of Notre Dame in Week 2 losing 45-24. Louisville is 5-0 and 2-3 ATS on the season and this is the first of many major showdowns coming up in the ACC. Not to mention Syracuse tomorrow taking on Clemson, who already has two losses on the season.

Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two solid rushing teams out gaining their foes by at least 60 YPG has earned an outstanding 26-22 record and 35-11 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Temple Owls vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, Oklahoma

7:30 EST, ESPN

8-Unit best bet on the Temple Owls plus the points, currently priced as 3.5-point underdogs in this AAC matchup.

Owls head coach Stan Drayton has 16 returning starts from last year’s squad with 7 on offense including the quarterback and 9 on defense. Tulsa skipper Kevin Wilson is rebuilding with only four offensive and five defensive returning starters. Plus, he has an inexperienced quarterback.

The Owl’s EJ Warner has completed just 54% of his passes and yet has thrown for 1000 passing yards. Despite Temple losing 41-7 last week to powerhouse Miami (Fla), Warner managed to throw for 240 yards including a touchdown. The Hurricane defense is more like a big breeze as compared to the strength and speed of the Miami Category 4 Hurricane defense.

The predictive model shows us that Temple is 4-6 SU and 10-0 ATS when passing for 300 or more yards and scoring 27 or more points.

Ole Miss vs Alabama

10-UNIT BEST BET on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points.

With a total of 56 points and a line favoring Alabama by 7 points reflect s an Alabama 31.5 24.5 in Tuscaloosa. My predictive models show an 86% probability that Alabama will score at least 28 points and in past games in which they did score 28+ points they have gone 113-6 SU for 95% winners and 75-41-3 ASTS for 65% winning bets under head coach Nick Saban. Alabama is 15-1 SU and 12-4 ASTS for 75% under Saban in conference games and having suffered a loss on the season and scoring at least 28 points. If that loss was at home, he has gone 11-2 SU and 10-3 ASTS for 78% winning bets. He is also 18-9 STS for 67% winners coming off two or more ats losses.

Mississippi is just 14-40 SU and 16-37-1 ATS for 30% when allowing 28 or more points and 11-35 SU and 14-31-1 ATS for 31% when facing an SEC foe since 2014.

Alabama has issues on offense and there is no doubting it, but the market has overreacted in a significant fashion. More than two months ago, this game had Alabama lined as a 15.5-point favorite and now has plummeted to -7. Did everyone forget just how good this defense is this season. In each of the previous negative starts to the season in which Saban’s team have struggled out of the gate they did successfully make the adjustments and fixed the problems on both sides of the ball and came out with a performance that reminds of us of who the Tide are: winners of 10 National Champions, twice as many as any one else. They covered the spread by an average of 7 PPG in these situations and my predictive model is expecting the same outcome.

Tennessee vs Florida

7:30 PM EST, Saturday, September 16

10-Unit best bet on the Florida plus the points

With a total of 58.5 points and a line favoring the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers by 6 points implies a 32-26 Volunteer win. The scoring has the potential to be quite volatile with many lead changes, which will provide great betting opportunities as well. So, consider betting 6-Units preflop and then add 1-Unit if Tennessee scores a touchdown first (not a field goal or safety) or if Tennessee gets out to a 10-0 lead having scored a FG first. Or simply add the 2-units if the price makes Florida a double-digit underdog at any point during the first half.

Betting on teams ranked in the Top-20 (not Top-25) that are road favorites of 4.5 to 9.5 points and facing a conference foe in the first four weeks of the regular season has gone 29-11 SU (73%), but just 13-27 ATS for 33% winning bets. So, fading these ranked false favorites is a great betting opportunity. If the game occurs in the SEC conference, the home dog is an amazing and highly profitable 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets sine 1994 and has not lost ATS since 2010 going a perfect 10-0 ATS for 100% winners.

No. 11 Tennessee opens Southeastern Conference play on the road Saturday night against a Florida offense that gained nearly 1,100 yards combined in their last two meetings. Tennessee defeated Florida last season, 38-33, after losing 16 of the previous 17 matchups against the Gators. This will be the first matchup the Volunteers are ranked in the AP Poll and the Gators are not since October 2, 1971, when Tennessee was then No. 12. Last week against the McNeese State Cowboys, Trevor Etienne, Montrell Johnson and Treyaun Webb became the first FBS trio this season to each record at least 10 rushes, 70 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in a single game. This is the only such game for the Gators over the past 25 seasons. The last time Tennessee visited the Swamp on Sept. 25, 2021, Florida held the No. 11 ranking and rolled up 505 yards of offense in a 38-14 victory.

The predictive models and applications. Suggest that Florida will score 27 or more points and have at least a three-minute edge in time-of-possession and run at least 8 more plays then Tennessee. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures led Florida to a 24-1 record, 18-7 ATS for 72% winners and a 16-9 Over result. In past games in which Tennessee allowed these measures led them to a 4-21 SU record and 4-20-1 ATS mark for just 17% winning bets including an 18-6-1 Over result.

Line: Wisconsin -6 | Total:59 points

8-UNIT BEST BET on Wisconsin minus the points

This is a matchup between the Big Ten and PAC-12 in week 2 that will be televised nationally on ABC. Wisconsin got off to a low start in week 1 under new coach Luke Fickell before the offense took flight in a 38-17 win over the Buffalo Bulls. Wisconsin failed to cover the spread priced as 27.5-point home favorites. The Bulls trailed by only four points at the half, but were outscored by 24-7 in the second half.

Wisconsin inexplicably lost 17-14 at home to Washington State in Week 3 priced as 17.5 point favorites so revenge is a factor that will prevent them from overlooking them a second consecutive year. Washington State has played in a bowl game seven straight seasons and eight of the past nine. However, the coaching staff has it’s third different offensive and defensive coordinator in as many seasons. Despite the fact that they have former OC Ben Arbuckle, who developed the 8th best offense in college football that averaged just under 500 Yards-Per-Game, it takes time for any offense to learn a new system without any game experience.

On defense the problem worsens for Washington State having just five returning starters from a unit that allowed seven foes 20 or fewer points. So, it is not realistic to expect a rebuilding defense to have the potential to stop a Wisconsin air raid offense that returns 10 starters including quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who passed for 72 touchdowns in his past two seasons. Wisconsin has three outstanding starting receivers (Chimere Dike, Bryson Green, and Will Pauling) and added 13 quality players form the transfer portal.

From my predictive models, expect Wisconsin to score 28 or more points and gain at least 6 yards-per-play in this game. In past road games when they have met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a 24-2 SU record and a 22-3-1 ATS mark since 2006. Since 2018 or five seasons, they have gone 8-0 SU and ATS.

Texas vs Alabama

7:00 PM EST, September 9, 2023

8-UNIT best bet on Texas plus the points currently priced at 7.

If Alabama scores first in this game, consider adding no more than 1-unit on the money line.

Texas head coach Sarkisian is 25-10 ATS in games with a total between 49.5 and 56 for his career. He knows what championship teams look like having been at the helm at USC in 2003 when they won the National Championship and as the offensive coordinator for Alabama in their championship season in 2020.

Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points after a game in which they outgained their foes by 175 or more total yards and has an experienced QB under center while facing a foe with a new and inexperienced QB at the helm has earned a 55-22 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

Quinn Ewers is the starting QB for Texas and was the #1 5-star quarterback in the 2021 recruiting class. He had a largely up and down season, but now has that valuable game experience under his belt. Remember, Texas lost at home to Alabama as 17.5 underdogs on a last second FG last year. They have superior depth at wide receiver this season with returning starter Xavier Worthy and the top-rated WR in the transfer portal in AD Mitchell from Georgia. Even more important is that the Longhorns return four of the five offensive linemen, and that unit has tremendous chemistry, which is a significant advantage for them against the ‘Bama defense. If the models and my research are correct, I do believe Texas wins this game outright.

Betting on home teams that are coming off a game in which they gained 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game and in a game with both teams having eight or more returning defensive starters on their team has earned a solid 79-39 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and is a consistent 56-28 ATS for 67% winners over the past five seasons.

The Aggies have played their last six games without throwing an interception, which is the best current streak in the FBS. Problem for the Aggies is that these streaks rarely continue past six or seven games. Colbie Young had four receptions for 79 yards and caught his sixth career touchdown in his ninth career game with Miami. Among all power conference wideouts with less than 10 career games, Young has the most receiving touchdowns (six), second most catches (36) and second most receiving yards (446).

From the predictive models, Miami is expected to have the same or fewer turnovers and hold the Aggies to less than 100 yards rushing. In past games in which Miami achieved these performance measures has seen them go 42-6 SU and 31-15-2 ATS for 67.4% winning bets.  

Consider betting 80^ of your bet amount preflop and then look to add the remaining 20% if Notre Dame scores a TD first or takes a 10-0 lead if their first score was a field goal.

Betting on an unranked home underdogs of 7.5 or fewer points in the first two weeks of the season and with a posted total of 50 or more points has earned a solid 12-9 SU record and a 14-7 ASTS mark good for 67% winning bets since 2008. Now, if they are home dogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points, they do even better with a 9-24 SU record and an impressive 16-7 ATS mark for 70% winning bets since 2008.

Teams have not played a game since 2017, but Notre Dame is riding a 32-3 SU record against the ACC, but has produced a 18-17 ATS mark over that span since 2017. Th efact that this trend has matured over many years actually becomes one that will be prone to reverse course with ND losing more ATS and SU then previously has been attained. Moreover, ND is just 2-112 ATS in road games after leading their last two games by 14 or more points at the half dating back to 2007.

Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, was a bowl team from the previous season has earned a 100-52 ATS mark for 65% winning bets. Plus, dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a foe that is coming off a home win of 17 or more points and had won 60% or more of their games in the previous season has earned a 50-20-2 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.

Clemson vs Duke
Monday, September 4, 2023
8-Unit best bet on the Duke Blue Devils plus the points, currently priced at 13 points.

Duke second-year head coach Mike Elko has 18 returning starters with 10 on offense including last year’s quarterback, Riley Leonard. After a three-win 2021 season that include losses in their last eight games, former head coach David Cutcliffe was dismissed. Elko turned things around immediately winning 8 regular season games and then won 30-13 in the Military Bowl over UCF.

This will be the first time since 2018 that these two ACC members have met. Since 1980, Duke is 5-25 SU and 14-16 ATS with all but three games taking place prior to the 2008 season. So, not much history between these programs, but given a chance to showcase their program, you can be sure that Duke and its’ fans will be fully prepared and ramped up to pull off an upset.

With a total of 55.5 points and Clemson favored by 13 points implies a 34.25-21.25 Clemson win. However, my predictive models show a high probability that Duke will score 27 or more points and average 6 or more yards-per-play. There are several projections that result in Duke’s offense gaining more YPP than Clemson. In past games in which Duke scored 27 or more points and averaged 6 or more YPP they went on to a highly profitable 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. If they score 27+ points and gain more YPP than their foe, the record goes to 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS for 83% winning bets.

Florida State vs LSU
8-Unit best bet on the Seminoles plus the points.

I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the spread and then look for LSU to score first or retake the lead during the first half of action and then bet 1-unit on the Seminoles using the money line.

FSU head coach Mike Norvell returns 17 starters with nine on defense. The Seminoles started 22 freshman at some point in games played last season and that experience is a monumental advantage and provides superior depth at the skill positions in this matchup.

Last year, the Seminoles played 22 freshmen ranking third most in college football and ranked third nationally scoring an average 10.4 PPG in the first quarter of action. Jordan Travis, a senior transfer from Louisville, returns under center after having a great 2022 campaign completing 64% of his 226 passes for 3,214 yards, 24 touchdowns, and an outstanding 160.1 quarterback rating (QBR). What I am most impressed this coming into the season are the stable of Seminole running backs starting with red shirt junior transfer Trey Benson, red shirt freshman Rodney Hill, red shirt junior, Lawrence Toafili, red shirt junior transfer Caziah Holmes, and red shirt sophomore CJ Campbell, JR.

After transferring from Oregon, Benson ran for 990 rushing yards, averaging 6.4 yards-per-rush (YPR) including nine touchdowns (TD). He accounted for 1,156 yards from scrimmage and 120 TD. I believe Hill is going to have a breakout season and is listed as the second RB on the Seminole depth chart. He has elite quickness, speed, and elusiveness that may give the Seminoles two 1,000 yard ground gainers this season. The most significant addition to the Seminole offense is the junior transfer Keon Coleman from Michigan State, who has NFL size at 6-4 and 215 pounds and can be consistently covered in man coverage schemes. For MSU last season, he caught a team high 58 balls for a team-high 798 receiving yards, averaging 13 yards-per-catch (YPC) including team-high eight receiving TD.

From the predictive models, we are looking for FSU to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which FSU met or exceeded these measures has produced a 18-0 record and 14-4 ATS record good for 78% winning bets. In games in which LSU allowed 28+ points and had the same or more turnovers has led to a 4-9 record and a 3-10 ATS record for 23% winners in games played over the past five seasons.

Thursday – Nebraska vs Minnesota
8-Unit Best Bet on Nebraska +7.5 points.

·      Betting on road underdogs facing a conference foe using the MONEY LINE

·      Our dog is priced at 10 or fewer points

·      Game occurs in the first three weeks of the season

·      Our dog is coming off a season in which they allowed 400 or YPG

·      26-26 (50%) | 315 ML wager | 310% ROI past 20 seasons

Subset: If our road warrior lost by 3 to 9 points in the previous meeting

9-12 (43%) | 12-5 ATS (71%) last 20 seasons

At this point, it appears the Cornhuskers will have their third different starting QB in as many seasons. Former Georgia tech QB, Jeff Sims transferred to Nebraska in December and had a solid Spring football season. He will have a much-improved offensive line in front of him led by ASU transfer and Center Ben Scott.  The offensive scheme will be the spread option under head coach Matt Rhule. Nebraska will run the ball from many different pre and post-snap alignments and create opportunities for short pass routes, which in turn will set up the play action pass play in man coverage situations. This ball-controlled scheme will give the defense time to rest between sets of downs, which is something that unit has not benefitted from in many seasons.

Sims will have a solid set of WR to throw the ball two starting with a duo of Senior-transfers. The ‘X’ wideout is Marcus Washington, who transferred from the Texas Longhorns after the 2021 season. For Nebraska last season he played in 12 games and caught 31 balls for 471 receiving yards, but only one TD. Billy Kemp has transferred from Virginia and is in position to excel in this ball-controlled offensive scheme. He will be in the slot and is quick enough at 5-9 and 170 lbs. to create separation from defenders as he did in the ACC. He had 137 receptions in the 2020 and 2021 seasons. The third WR is Zavier Betts, who is a red-shirt sophomore, who had 20 receptions in 12 games for 417 receiving yards.  Behind them is a core of WR featuring seven new freshman all with the potential to make sizable contributions.

The Gophers return just eight starters with four on offense and defense each this season. They are in a rebuilding type of season. Their defense ranked 41st nationally allowing 23.2 PPG and they lost a lot of talent from that unit that is not replaceable in the early weeks of a season for a program not named Georgia. So, I do strongly believe Nebraska will eb able to move the ball effectively and chew up the game clock and earn a sizable time-of-possession advantage leading to a potential outright win.

A Situational Betting System
The following betting system has earned a solid 296-204-1 ATS record good for 59.2% ATS winning bets over the past 20 seasons. The requirements are to bet on conference road teams with a total of 50 or fewer points and is priced as a dog between 7 and 13.5 points. What is truly great about this system is that it has not had a losing record season since 2004 and that is 20 season folks. If our road dog has lost the four consecutive games to the current opponent, the record soars to an amazing 32-11 ATS record good for 74.4% winning bets over the past 20 seasons.
     This is one of my more than 5000 betting systems and algorithms that I have developed and tested over my 28-year career. I have put together an optimized packed of 103 betting systems, which the aforementioned is one of them, and is akin to a well-managed optimized 401-K plan. By diversifying the risk of a single bet and spreading it out over the course of many diverse betting situations that teams and respective matchups find themselves has produced exceptionally profitable results. 

Head coach Rhule is a solid 43-18-1 ATS when facing a conference foe and is 28-12 ATS when on the road for his career.

Thursday – Florida Gators vs Utah Utes
8-Unit Best Bet on Florida +4.5 points

The ranked Utah Utes will take on the SEC-member Florida Gators in Week 1 action set to kickoff at 8:00 PM EST, Thursday evening.

Ranked teams of between a 7.5-point dog and 7.5-point favorite are 44-41 SU (52%) and 35-47-3 ATS (43%) in Week 1 action. If they won 10 or more games in the previous season, they have underperformed with a 26-22 SU record (54%0 and 19-27-2 ATS mark for just (41%), and the OVER has gone 28-18-2 for a solid 61% winning bets.

Let’s drill a bit deeper into the omnipotent database. In week 1 action ranked teams priced between a 7.5 dog and favorite and facing an unranked foe fall flat producing a 15-12 SU record and 7-19-1 ATS mark good for 27% winning bets. This implies that fading these falsely ranked teams, hits 73% winning bets. Not the situation for our matchup here but note for future reference that these Week 1 teams when priced as a dog have gone a terrible 0-4 ATS. If our road disrespected dog won fewer games in the previous season than the ranked foe, these dogs have earned an 11-15 record and a solid 18-7-1 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 17 seasons and since Covid in 2020, this situational betting angle is a perfect 6-0 ATS.

Gator head coach Napier is 5-1 ATS pried as a dog and was 10-3 as a dog while at the helm of Louisiana Lafayette; 15-4 ATS for his career. Utes head coach Whittingham is just 21-35 ATS for 38% when priced as a 3.5-to-9.5-point favorite. If those games occurred during the first four weeks, Whittingham is just 4-9 ATS for 31%.

From the predictive models, we are looking for Florida to score 24 or more points and have a 5 or more-minute advantage in time-of-possession. In past games in which Florida has met or exceeded these performance measures, they have gone on to a 45-2 SU record and 35-12 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets and if the game is on the road and they are priced as the dog, 4-2 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS. When Utah has allowed these performance measures, they have gone 4-16 SU and 3-16-1 ATS for 16%.

Peach Bowl - Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

5% 10-UNIT MAX Bet on the Ohio State Buckeye plus the points

All the Buckeyes wanted was another opportunity to redeem themselves, just as Georgia did a year ago. The Bulldogs lost 41-24 to Alabama in the 2021 SEC title game but as the No. 3 seed in the CFP downed No. 2 Michigan 34-11 before defeating No. 1 Alabama 33-18 for the national championship. Ohio State's C.J. Stroud led the nation in passer efficiency rating. He threw for 3,340 yards, 37 touchdowns, and six interceptions but will be without receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back TreVeyon Henderson due to injuries. Even so, Marvin Harrison Jr. had 72 receptions for 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns, and the Buckeyes have plenty of big-play ability. Ohio State is extraordinarily deep in talent on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense.

Ohio State is 14-3 ATS (82.4%) when not playing at home and coming off a home loss since 1990. The Ohio State Buckeyes have lost their last five games against the spread when facing ranked foes and as a DOG, though, and facing a ranked foe they are
13-11 straight-up (SU) and 17-7 ATS (71%) since 2010 and as a single-digit Dog they are 10-1 ATS (91%)

Buckeye head coach Day is 6-0 ATS after two or more consecutive losses to the spread and Bulldog HC Smart is 8-20 ATS following a game that his team covered the spread and was priced as double-digit favorites.

From the predictive model, we are expecting Ohio State to score 31 or more points and gain at least 6.5 yards per play OR gain at least 9 yards per pass attempt. In past games in which Ohio State met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone on to a 71-2 SU record and 56-16-1 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and 20-0 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets. Exercise discipline first and foremost and bet on Ohio State.

Kansas vs Arkansas
Liberty Bowl - Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium - Memphis, TN

4% 8-Unit best bet on Arkansas and if this line moves to pick-em or less than a 2-point favorite consider the money line.

From the predictive model, Arkansas is expected to score at least 28 points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which Arkansas met or exceeded these measures has led to a 9-0 SU record and an 8-1 ATS mark over the past five seasons.

Georgia Southern vs Buffalo

4% 8-Unit best bet plus the points and sprinkle the money line with a .5 added bet

Betting on underdogs of six or fewer points playing on a neutral field after the week 4 that are coming off two consecutive losses to the spread and the most recent ATS was a game in which they were lined as double-digit favorites has earned an 11-9 record on the money line and a 14-6 ATS record good for 70% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If a bowl game these dogs have gone 7-7 SU, 10-4 ATS for 71.4% winning bets. 

Georgia Southern is getting the large majority of the bets being made and presents a contrarian opportunity for us in this bowl game. Dogs of 3.5 to 0.5 points playing in bowl games getting less than 40% of the tickets bet on them have gone 109-687 ATS for 62% winning bets and a solid 22% ROI. I am going with Bowling Green in this one.

Air Force vs Baylor

4% 8-Unit best bet on Air Force plus the points

Betting on Armed Forces teams, Air Force, Army, and Nay, priced as underdogs of seven or fewer points OR favored and facing a foe that is averaging at least 24 or more PPG on the season in any bowl game has earned a 19-8 SU record and 20-7 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 25 bowl seasons and 11-3 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

This will be the first time since 1977 that these two football programs will compete on the gridiron. Air Force senior Brad Roberts led the Mountain West Conference in rush attempts (308) and rushing yards (1621) this season. Roberts is the program’s all-time leader in career rush attempts (671) and ranks third in career yards (3429) trailing only Dee Dowis (3612) and Asher Clark (3594). 

Five of Baylor's six losses this season came against AP-Top 25 ranked opponents. It is Baylor’s most losses to ranked teams in a single season since 2008 (6 losses). Air Force has a lot to play for after underperforming preseason expectations as the favorite to win the MWC starting with the fact that they have a shot at a 10-win season, which is an impressive accomplishment at a service academy. And it would be a nice footnote to the fact they've already claimed the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy after beating Army and Navy.

 Air Force is 19-10 SU and 19-9-1 ATS (68%) following a game in which they allowed 250 or fewer yard sand 14 or fewer points and 7-0 ATS if priced as a dog and 4-0 ATS if involving a bowl game venue. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has been at the head of the program since the start of the 2007 season and has played in 11 bowl games. When the total has been between 42.5 and 49 points, his Falcons are 24-10 SU and 25-9 ATS for 74% winning bets and 9-3 ATS when priced as a dog. 

Marshall vs UCONN
Myrtle Beach Bowl

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on UCONN plus the points

UConn (6-6 SU, 9-3 ATS, 4-7-1 O=U)) is bowl-eligible for the first time since 2015 under first-year coach Jim Mora Jr. Before losing their regular season finale to Army, the Huskies had a stretch of five wins in six games and covered the spread in all six, capped off by an upset victory over then-ranked No. 19 Liberty. 

Games playing on a neutral field that has a worse win percentage then the foe and are priced between a 10- and 14.5-point underdog are 19-11 ATS for 63% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after Week 12 these double-digit dogs have earned a 14-7 ATS for 67% winning bets.

Notre Dame vs USC 

5% MAX 10-Unit Best bet on Southern Cal minus the points 

From the predictive model, we are expecting USC to score at least 31 points, gain at least 100+ more yards of total offense and have the same or fewer turnovers. USC is 48-0 SU and 42-6 ATS (88%) when meeting or exceeding these performance measures since 2006 and 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS the past five seasons.  

Betting on home favorites between 4 and 10 points in weeks 10 on out and facing a foe that has gone Over the total by 49 or more points in their last five games has earned a 15-4 SU (79%) and 14-5 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. 

USC vs Arizona 

5% 10-UNIT NAX Best Bet on the USC Trojans minus the points 

USC has won nine straight meetings with Arizona, with the Wildcats' last win coming at home in 2012. The Trojans have won 15 of their 19 all-time visits to Tucson. Jordan Addison had seven catches for 106 yards and hauled in his seventh touchdown of the season, tied with Arizona's Jacob Cowing for the Pac-12 lead. Addison's next reception will mark the 200th of his college career. He is a transfer from Pittsburgh and currently ranks fifth among active FBS players with 199 career receptions and 2844 receiving yards, while his 28 career touchdowns rank second to UTSA's Zakhari Franklin, who has 29. 

The USC offense ranks ninth averaging 40.4 PPG and 8th with a 0.589 points-per-play ration in the nation. That explosive offense is going up against a defense in Arizona that ranks 123rd in the nation with a 0.554 points-per-play allowed and 124th allowing 37.7 PPG. The Wildcats have allowed 6.94 yards per play this season, third highest in the FBS behind Charlotte (7.36) and South Florida (7.00). Arizona has allowed 5.8 yards per rush this season, fourth most in the FBS, but held Washington to just 79 yards (2.7 yards per rush) in its last game. 

Betting on road favorites of 13 or more points that is facing a foe that is allowing 31 o more PPG and with that opponent coming off two consecutive games in which 60 or more points in total were scored has earned an outstanding 106-57-1 SYS record good for 65% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Plus, if being played from Week 9 on out and against a conference foe has improved the results to a 73-6 SU record and 55-24 ASTS for 70% winning bets.  

Take USC minus the points 

Minnesota vs Penn State 7:30 PM EST 

5% 10-Unit Best bet on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points 

There is news circulating from reliable sources that Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan will not be able to start tonight in Penn State’s annual white-out game set to start at 7:30 PM EST in Happy Valley. There is news too that PSU QB Sean Clifford may not start either coming off a very physical loss at Michigan last week. The difference here is I the backups and strongly favors PSU true freshman Drew Allar, who is a protype pro quarterback standing 6-5 and weighing in at 238 pounds. He has incredible leg strength and is hard to tackle pulling out of many would be tackler attempts. Most important is that he may be the best quarterback in the game today.  

He has appeared in four games this season completing 12 of 19 passes for 163 yards and two touchdowns. How in the world Ohio State let this player get out of their grasps is somewhat mind blowing. Rated as a five-star prospect by 247Sports and On3 and a four-star recruit by ESPN and Rivals...Rated the top quarterback prospect in the country and the No. 3 overall prospect by 247Sports.Named the 2021 Ohio Prep Sportswriters Association Mr. Football, State Offensive Player of the Year, Max Preps Ohio Player of the Year and a first-team all-state selection in Division I... Selected Greater Cleveland Conference Offensive Player of the Year, Ohio Prep Sportswriters Association Northeast Ohio Inland District Division I Offensive Player of the Year, Cleveland.com Offensive Player of the Year and Medina County MVP. As a junior and senior, was an Ohio Division I first team and Greater Cleveland Conference first team honoree. Completed 305-of-511 passes (60 percent) for 4,444 yards and 48 passing touchdowns his senior season, setting Medina County records for yards and touchdowns.  

PSU head coach James Franklin is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of the last four games. PSU is 40-20-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games. Minnesota is just 7-19 ATS as a road underdog between 3.5 and 7 points. 

UCLA vs Oregon 

3:30 EDT 

4% 8-Unit best bet on the UCLA Bruins plus the points 

Well, this is a big showdown with monumental consequences for the loser of this PAC-12 matchup. UCLA is one of the nine remaining undefeated teams in the nation. After Week 7, teams that are undefeated and facing a foe that has won 80% or more of their games and has covered the spread by 49 or more points over their last five games has earned a 19-6-1 ATS record good for 76% winning bets.  

Teams that are 6-0 on the season and facing a foe coming off a double-digit win and with a total between 65 and 72 points are 5-1 SUATS for 83% winning bets. Bet UCLA 

Rice vs LA-Tech 3:00 EDT 

4% best bet on the Rice Owls minus the points 

Betting on road favorites facing an opponent that is allowing 31 or more points per game and is coming off two consecutive games in which a combined score of 60 or more points was scored has earned a 235-52 SU record for 82% and 180-103-4 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If the total in the game is between 55 and 60 points, the record improves to 67-12 for 85% and 53-25-1 ATS for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.  

Toledo vs Buffalo 

4% 8-Unit best bet on Buffalo plus the points 

Buffalo is 12-3 ATS when facing a strong offense averaging 37 or more points-per-game. Buffalo is 13-3 ATS after winning four of their last five games. Toledo is running hot but prone to a regression matchup here against Buffalo; Toledo is averaging 38.4 PPG and posting a 10.5 yards-per-point, but their defense has suffered allowing 31 PPG and a 12.6 yards-per-point ratio. 

Teams, like Buffalo, that have covered or pushed against the spread and won all four games have gone on to a 16-6 ATS record for 73% winners. 

Syracuse vs Clemson 

4% best bet on Syracuse plus the points  

Noon EDT 

Betting on road underdogs between 9 and 17.5 points in a conference matchup when the total is between 45 and 50 points has earned a 105-58-7 for 64% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If our dog is undefeated on the season, they have gone 9-4 ATS for 69% winning bets last 10 seasons. 

Indiana vs Rutgers  

Noon EDT 

4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points 

Hoosiers are just 4-15 ATS in road games after gaining less than 100 rushing yards in two consecutive games. Hoosiers head coach Allen is 1-9 ATS following a game with a –2 or worse turnover margin. 

From the predictive model, Indiana is expected to gain less than 3 yards per carry and for Rutgers to score 28 or more points. Rutgers is 17-0 SU and 13-3-1 ATS in hoe games scoring 28 or ore points and allowing less than 3 yards per carry. Indiana is 1-18 SU and 6-13 ATS in road games rushing for less than 3 yards per carry and allowing 28 or more points. 

Virginia vs Georgia Tech 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points 

Betting on dogs of 3 to 10 points in games played from weeks 5 to 9, are coming off two consecutive double-digit losses to conference foes are 39-46 SU, 57-25-3 ATS for 70% winning bets since the start of the 2013 season spanning 10 season and only the 2021, season had a losing record at 2-5 ATS.  

Teams like UVA that have covered the spread on no more than of their last six games, lined as a dog of not more than 4.5 points and with the total between 45 and 50 points has earned a 15-9 ATS record good for 63% winning bets.  

Temple vs UCF 

4% 8-Unit best bet on UCF minus the points  I loaded this up wrong and the bet is ON UCF !!!

Betting on favorites of 23.5 to 31.5points following two consecutive wins by 17 or more points and facing an opponent that scored three or fewer points in the first half of their previous game has earned an outstanding 56-1 SU and 39-16-2 ATS for 71% winning bets since 2010. 

Baylor vs West Virginia 

4% 8-Unit best bet on Baylor minus the points 

Betting on road teams using the money line that are coming off an upset loss to a conference foe, has a winning record not higher than 60% on the season and facing a losing record foe has earned a 26-16 ATS mark for 62% winning bets and if that foe averaged fewer than 4 yards per rush in their previous game the record goes to 33-9 SU and 12-5-1 ATS for 71% wining bets. 

From the predictive model, Baylor is 24-4 SU and 22-6 ASTS for 79% winning bets when scoring 28+ points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponents in games played over the past five seasons. 

LA Lafayette vs Marshall 

4% 8-Unit best Bet on the Ragin Cajuns plus the points. 

Marshall is just 7-19 ATS in a home game when the total has been between 42.5 and 49.5 points over the past 10 seasons; 21-45 ATS after having lost two of their last three games SU; 15-34-1 ATs following two games io which they committed no more than a single turnover in each.  

From my predictive model, LAL is expected to score 24 or more points and have fewer turnovers than Marshall. In past games in which they achieved those measures, they have gone on to earn a 27-2 SU mark and 20-8-1nATS record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons and when priced as the dog, 7-1 SUATS for 88% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

Fresno State vs Boise State

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Boise State minus the points

9:45 PM EST 

Fresno head coach Tedford is 0-7 ATS following a game in which he gained 225 or fewer yards. 

From the predictive model, we are expecting Fresno to gain less than 100 rushing yards and for Boise to score at least 28 points. In past games in which Boise State scored 28 or more points and held their opponent to less than 100 RY has seen them earn a 61-4 SU record and a 45-17-2 SATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006. If the game is at home, BSU is 31-1 SU and 21-9-1 ATS for 70% winning bets. 

K-State vs Iowa State

5% 10-Unit Best Bet on the Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State has won three of its last four games versus Kansas State after the Wildcats had won each of the previous 10 contests. The last matchup that was played in Ames resulted in a 45-0 victory for the Cyclones. The Wildcats (4-1, 2-0 Big 12) have lost two straight games to the Cyclones (3-2, 0-2) and have fallen in their last two trips to Ames. Their loss in 2018 broke a 10-game winning streak vs. Iowa State. The Wildcats are within three games of evening the all-time series, which Iowa State leads 52-49-4.

The Wildcats enter Saturday's game riding a two-game winning streak -- impressive victories at Oklahoma and against Texas Tech. Wildcats quarterback Adrian Martinez has earned Big 12 Player of the Week honors in each of the past two weeks, getting the offensive honor following the win over Oklahoma and newcomer honors after downing Texas Tech.

From the predictive models, we are looking for ISU to gain at least 150 rushing yards, score 27 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. IN past games in which the Cyclones met these measures they have earned a 40-10 SU record and 40-9-1 ATS for 82% winning bets since 1989 and is 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets over the last five seasons.

North Carolina vs Miami (FLA) 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on UNC plus the points
4:00 EST kickoff

Betting on teams that are facing an opponent coming off a horrid loss priced as a 20 or greater favorite has produced a 97-201 SU record, 113-83-3 ATS record good for 58% winning bets since 1989. If these failures were ranked against an unranked team in that terrible loss, the next opponent playing them has earned a 19-30 SU record, but a solid 31-17-1 SATS mark good for 65% winning bets. If our team we are betting on is the dog, they go just 9-26 SU, but 23-11-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. If that opponent was ranked while enduing their most recent monster loss and now fell out of the Top-25 now, their opponents feast on the in a big way going 11-13 SU and 17-7-1 ATS for 71% winning bets.

Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh 
4% 8-Unit Best Bet on V-Tech plus the points
3:30 PM EST kickoff

Betting on teams that are facing an opponent coming off a horrid loss priced as a 20 or greater favorite has produced a 97-201 SU record, 113-83-3 ATS record good for 58% winning bets since 1989. If these failures were ranked against an unranked team in that terrible loss, the next opponent playing them has earned a 19-30 SU record, but a solid 31-17-1 SATS mark good for 65% winning bets. If our team we are betting on is the dog, they go just 9-26 SU, but 23-11-1 ATS for 68% winning bets. If that opponent was ranked while enduing their most recent monster loss and now fell out of the Top-25 now, their opponents feast on the in a big way going 11-13 SU and 17-7-1 ATS for 71% winning bets.

Wisconsin vs Northwestern

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Wisconsin minus the points

3:30 start time

Wisconsin is 20-5 ATS for 80% following a game in which they were outrushed by 125 or more yards. NWU is just 1-9 ASTS following a game that played UNDER the total. Wisconsin is 10-2 ATS after allowing 31 or more points in each of their last two games. 

NWU head coach Fitzgerald is 0-6 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread but did not win the game. He is also 8-18 SATS following a game in which they forced three or more turnovers. 

Betting on favorites between 10.5 and 21 points that are on a two or more game losing streak and have a win percentage between 40% and 50% on the season (Wisconsin is 2-3 for 40% win percentage) have gone 47-3 SU and 37-13 ATS for 74% winning bets since 2010.