25* graded play on Iowa as they take on Wisconsin in Big Ten action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Iowa will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-3 mark good for 90% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against a road team vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) off 2 covers where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off a road win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa is a solid 20-7 against the money line (+16.1 Units) in home games when they score 22 to 28 points; 22-4 against the money line (+18.2 Units) in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The Wisconsin Badgers take a trip to Iowa City, Iowa this weekend to take on the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa sits at 5-2 on the year and 3-1 in conference play just one game behind Nebraska in the Big Ten West Division. We look for this to be a lower scoring affair so look for turnovers and field position to play a big part in this game. Wisconsin has turned the ball over 11 times this year while Iowa has only turned it over 5 times. Wisconsin QB’s have thrown 7 touchdowns this year but have thrown 8 interceptions and in a Conference game like this, turnovers must be at a minimum. Look for Iowa’s offense to move the ball steadily with running back Akrum Wadley who averages 7.4 yards per carry and also in the air with QB C.J. Beathard who has a 60% completion percentage and 11 touchdowns this year. The Hawkeyes have a great shot at winning this game at home against 10th ranked Wisconsin. Take Iowa with the points.

25* graded play on BYU as they take on Boise State in NCAAF action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BYU will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a solid opportunity to win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 36-11 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 1992. Play against home favorites (BOISE ST) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU is 4-2 against the spread versus Boise State since 1992. Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Cougars are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. MWC. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Broncos are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Fundamental Discussion Points Boise State’s last 3 wins have not been as dominant as one would have thought and the Broncos are only 2-4 ATS on the season. On the other hand, BYU is 4-0 ATS as an underdog.  BYU has had close games this year and also Boise has not been a good covering team. BYU's Jamaal Williams is ranked 4th in the nation with 134 yards a game rushing. Senior quarterback Taysom Hill threw three touchdown passes in Friday's 28-21 double-overtime victory over Mississippi State and has accounted for 13 touchdowns (nine passing, four rushing) this season. Senior running back Jamaal Williams (3,468) became the school's all-time rushing list in the Mississippi State contest - surpassing Harvey Unga (3,455 from 2006-09) - and has rushed for 942 yards (second-most nationally) and 10 touchdowns this season. Nacua, a senior, is tied for the national lead with five interceptions and has 13 in his career while sophomore linebacker Francis Bernard (48 tackles) racked up a career-best 16 tackles against the Bulldogs.

25* graded play on Virginia tech as they take on Miami (Fla) in ACC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that V-Tech will win this game by 10 or more points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. V-Tech is a solid 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 total yards. Miami has been a money burning 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) off 2 or more consecutive ‘unders’; 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite. Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Hokies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Hokies are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 Thursday games.

Fundamental Discussion Points Miami's Brad Kaaya-led offense has struggled (32 points in the losses) with the line shouldering much of the blame. Coach Justin Fuente's defense was ranked No. 3 nationally in yards allowed per game before Syracuse totaled 561 yards, ran 100 offensive plays and scored on its final two possessions. Evans (ACC-best 170.7 QB rating, 17 touchdown passes, 319 yards rushing) is the third straight quarterback Miami faces who is as dangerous as a runner as he is passer, with the previous two having success both ways against the Hurricanes. VT's Travon McMillian posted 16 carries, 99 yards, averaging 6.2 YPC in the last Miami game and Isaiah Ford is doing well posting 32 catches and five TDs. Take Virginia Tech.

25* graded play on Mississippi as they take on Arkansas in SEC West action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Ole Miss will win this game by more than 9 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-16 over the last 10 seasons good for 74.6% winners. Play against home underdogs (ARKANSAS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Ole Miss is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. since 1992; 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Freeze is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 63 as the coach of Ole Miss and he is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in the first half of the season as their coach. Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. Rebels are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.

Fundamental Discussion Points With Ole Miss coming off of a bye week, and Arkansas coming off of a tough loss to Alabama 49-30, I predict that Ole Miss will win this week in SEC West action. Arkansas struggled last week, even though it appeared to be a close game; Arkansas’ QB Allen had 3 interceptions last week and they were only able to gain 73 yards rushing. Look for Chad Kelly (66% completion, 1,596 yards, 13 TDs, 4 interceptions) to hit his top two targets this week: Evan Engram (30 receptions for 479 yards, 4 TDs) and Damore’ea Stringfellow (20 passes for 305 yards, 2 TDs). Also, Ole Miss has a much stronger offensive and defensive efficiency rating, at 83.8 and 68.5, respectively. In comparison, Arkansas has a 60.6 and 51.1 efficiency rating, for offense and defense, respectively. Chad Kelly will have another stellar performance this week, and Ole Miss defense will step up to shut down Arkansas. Take Ole Miss.

25* graded play on Syracuse as they take on Virginia Tech in ACC action set to start at 3:45 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Syracuse will lose this game by less than 15 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 156-90 since 1992 good for 63.4% winners and made a BIG 57 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SYRACUSE) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Syracuse at home is 5-1 against the spread versus VT since 1992. Hokies are 6-13-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Hokies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Hokies are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Orange are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings head-to-head.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Hokies have played well after the collapse in Bristol earlier this year and got a little help from the weather last week. Va-Tech has a big game with Miami on deck next week and get Syracuse at the dome, where they can use their speed and come up with big plays. The Orangemen have moved the ball against everyone this year and we look for more of the same today. Syracuse Quarterback Eric Dungey has completed 64.3 % on his passes this year and we look for the Cuse offense to put up enough points today to cover this big number.

35* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Alabama in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by less than 9.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 156-90 since 1992 good for 63.4% winners and made a huge 57 units/unit wagered. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TENNESSEE) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Alabama is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992. Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Volunteers are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Tennessee is 2-0 against the spread versus Alabama over the last 3 seasons. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Tennessee junior running back Alvin Kamara, who redshirted at Alabama in 2013 before transferring, figures to see the football a lot again after setting a school record with 312 all-purpose yards (127 rushing, 161 receiving, 24 returns) against Texas A&M. The terrific performance from Kamara (292 rushing yards, team-best 20 receptions) came with junior leading rusher Jalen Hurd (407 yards) sidelined with undisclosed injuries and coach Butch Jones said that Hurd will play versus Alabama. Tennesse is a tough football team and loves to keep their games close with Alabama. Take Tennessee Volunteers.

25* graded play on UNC as they take on Miami (FL) in ACC Coastal action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UNC will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 85-42 since 1992 good for 66.9% winners and made 38.8 units/unit wagered. Play against a home team (MIAMI) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%). The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UNC is 7-5 against the spread versus Miami since 1992. Miami is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992. Richt is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached since 1992. Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Mitch Trubisky and the Tar Heel offense were rolling until Hurricane Matthew came into town last week and shut the offense down. Until last week the Tar Heels were close in all big games this year and we look for more of the same today. The loser of this game will most likely be eliminated from winning the Coastal Division and making it to the ACC Championship Game. UNC put up 35 points in Tallahassee earlier this year and won on a last second field goal and we look for the offense to move the ball today. The Hurricanes are off a tough loss to Florida State last week and are now in a must win game this week. Brad Kaaya is having a solid season for the Canes but got a little banged up last week. We look for this one to be close throughout and like Carolina with the points.

25* graded play on Clemson as they take on NC State in ACC Atlantic action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by more than 20 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 over the last 10 seasons good for an incredible 83.9% winners. Play on Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (CLEMSON) - after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after a win by 35 or more points since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. NC State is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. Doeren is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers as the coach of NC State. Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Deshaun Watson and the Clemson offense has been in high gear after starting off the season slow. This is a key game for Clemson in the ACC Atlantic Division as if the Tigers win this game it would put the Tigers in the Drivers seat to return to the ACC Championship Game. The Clemson offense has been averaging 47 points a game at home this year and the defense has been solid against everyone not named Lamar Jackson. The Wolfpack offense has been good this year, but the defense has been average, take away help from Hurricane Matthew last week and the stop troops are nothing to get excited about and we don't see them slowing Deshaun Watson down today. Clemson won by 15 on the road last year and shut out State 41-0 in the last trip to Clemson. The Tigers get a bye next week and 2 weeks to prepare for their big trip to Tallahassee. We look for Deshaun Watson to have another big day and get back in the Heisman race, and the offense to keep rolling and the Defense to continue to play well again. Take the Tigers and lay the points.

25* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on BYU in FBS action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Miss. State will lose this game by less than 4 points and have a chance to pull off the upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-20 over the last 5 seasons good for 67.2% winners. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BYU) - in a game involving two good rushing teams - both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. since 1992; 6-21 ATS (-17.1 Units) vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992; 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992. MSST is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Mississippi State and BYU split their previous meetings in 2001 and 2002, with the road team winning each time. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen went 2-0 against the Cougars while serving as Utah's quarterback coach in 2003-04. MSST has a higher completion percentage per game (60.24%) and allow a  lower completion percentage than BYU. In fact, the Cougars rank a lowly 128th in the country allowing 69.79% completions against them. In almost all other categories these teams are pretty neck and neck. Look for the Bulldogs to throw and complete a bit more to press this advantage. Take Mississippi State.

35* graded play on Oregon State as they take on California in a PAC-12 Conference matchup set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that OSU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at posting the major upset win too. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 30* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. I also think simply adding a 3* play using the money line to the 35* wager using the line is a solid investment as well.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cal is just 38-97 ATS (-68.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents; OSU is a rock solid 46-16 ATS (+28.4 Units) in home games when they score 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points After sending 21 seasons crunching numbers to create metrics, there is one dominant theme in many college football games and it pivots around the number 28. Many teams success or failure surrounds the number 28 and it can be if they score 28 or more or allow 28 or less points. In this game we have both in that CAL is horrible when allowing 28 points and OSU has been largely successful when scoring 28 or more. There is an 89% probability that OSU will score more than 28 points in this game. This game will be a PAC-12 shootout with a posted total of 71 points. This is NOT a recommendation for the ‘OVER” at all, but fact is that the matchups clearly show this will not be a defensive struggle focused on field position. This all favors OSU to compete for four quarters and keep this game to within 1 score going into the final 7:30 of the game.

Oregon State may have a weak defense, but Cal’s is even weaker based on a large percentage of the metrics calculated. I also like that OSU does not make mental mistakes as reflected in penalties/game where Cal does exhibit far more mental mistakes. I don’t think teams truly get caught looking ahead as many times as the media will want you to expect. However, Cal does have a big test coming up against Oregon in 2 weeks. So, the fact that Oregon is next with a BYE week looming could create coaching nightmares for the Cal staff. Take Oregon State.

25* graded play on as they take on the action set to start at 4:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FSU will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-16 mark ATS for 73% winners since 2005. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA ST) with a struggling defense allowing 425 or more total yards/game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Miami is a miserable 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games.

Fundamental Discussion PointsFSU is definitely not off to the start they had hoped, losing the last two games to end up at 3-2. FSU desperately needs to bounce back this game and they will do that with the help of their offensive line giving way to an impressive day for both Dalvin Cook (FSU RB) andDeondre Francois (FSU QB). Miami may have started the season at 4-0 but they have not truly been tested by a high-powered offense yet; this week, Miami has to face their first offense with true athleticism and speed. FSU’s offense is averaging 508.8 yards per game and has a fairly balanced offensive scheme. FSU’s offensive efficiency rating is an 85.7 (out of 100), ranking fifth in the nation at the moment. Miami has not faced an offense anywhere near this, with their last opponents having efficiency ratings of 24.2 (FAU), 50.5 (Georgia Tech), and 51 (Appalachian State).

Due to the untested defense of Miami, and the impressive offense of FSU, I predict FSU will pull off this shootout victory.

25* graded play on NC State as they take on Notre Dame in NCAA Football action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NC State will win this game by more than 5 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Notre Dame is 47-71 ATS (-31.1 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992; 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Kelly is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of Notre Dame. Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on grass. Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Wolfpack are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Wolfpack are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Wolfpack are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Wolfpack are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points N.C. State should be able to keep pace offensively behind quarterback Ryan Finley, who is completing 72.4 percent of his passes and has thrown for nine TDs without an interception. Finley benefits from a balanced attack that is averaging 208 yards on the ground and has totaled 12 rushing TDs, led by senior running back Matthew Dayes (437 yards, three TDs). NC State won the last meeting very easily 28-6 and are significantly ahead of ND in all the metrics. Notre Dame is a young and 'improving' team this year. Take NC State Wolfpack.

25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Maryland in Big Ten action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Penn State will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Maryland is 35-89 ATS (-62.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games when their defense allows 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1992; 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards since 1992. Penn State is 107-37 ATS (+66.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Terrapins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. Terrapins are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. Terrapins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Terrapins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Terrapins are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The Terps will have their hands full with Lions signal-caller Trace McSorley, who totaled 408 yards of total offense - the third highest single-game total in school history – as Penn State rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit last week to defeat Minnesota 29-26 in overtime. McSorley (58.9 completion percentage, six TDs, three interceptions) leads the Big Ten in passing yards (1,284) and frequently targets wideouts Chris Godwin (23 catches, 325 yards), DaeSean Hamilton (16, 169) and DeAndre Thompkins (14, 237). Sophomore running back Saquon Barkley has 380 yards rushing this season. Penn State junior kicker Tyler Davis converted three field goals against Minnesota to match a career high and move his consecutive field goals streak to 17, breaking the school record of 15 held by Sam Ficken. Penn State coach James Franklin was the offensive coordinator at Maryland from 2008-10 and its wide receivers coach from 2000-04. Take Penn State Nittany Lions and the points.

25* graded play on Kansas as they take on TCU in BIG 12 action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Kansas will lose this game by less than 20 points..

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kansas is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game since 1992. Patterson is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game as the coach of TCU and he is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of TCU. Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Horned Frogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points TCU's shaky defense has allowed more than 40 points on three occasions this season. Willis has completed 58.4 percent of his passes for 374 yards, three touchdowns and one interception and Beaty said he has been more efficient in recent games than Cozart (62.6 percent for 581 yards, six touchdowns and four interceptions). Sophomore receiver Steven Sims Jr. has performed well with 17 receptions for a team-best 312 yards and five touchdowns, but the running game has struggled with senior Ke'aun Kinner (179 yards) being the most productive back.  The Horned Frogs have struggled to stop opponents on third downs -- ranking in a tie for 98th nationally at 43.5 percent. With the spread so high on a conference opponent on the road, there's a small chance for TCU to cover. Take the many points with Kansas Jayhawks.

25* graded play on Clemson as they take on Boston College in ACC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by more than 20 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-13 over the last 5 seasons good for 74.5% winners and made 23.7 units/unit wagered. Play against home underdogs (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game, with an experienced QB returning as starter. Another proven system supports this play posting a 57-24 over the last 10 seasons good for 70.4% winners and made 30.6 units/unit wagered. Play On road favorites (CLEMSON) - with a good scoring defense - allowing 17 or less points/game, after leading their last 3 games by 10+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games after scoring 37 points or more last game since 1992; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons; 29-11 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Swinney is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of Clemson. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Eagles are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points As quarterback Deshaun Watson goes, so go the Tigers, and the junior recorded season highs of 306 yards and five touchdowns in the thriller against Louisville. He also tacked on a season-best 91 rushing yards and has been sacked only twice this season, giving him enough time to consistently find the likes of Mike Williams (25 catches, 373 yards, two TDs) and Ray-Ray McCloud (24, 271, two). Senior linebacker Ben Boulware is coming off a monster performance in which he registered a career-high 18 tackles (three for losses), a fumble recovery and a pass deflection - good enough to earn him ACC Player of the Week honors at his position. Clemson has won seven in a row on the road, one shy of matching the longest run in program history (1978-79). Take Clemson Tigers.

25* graded play on Temple as they take on Memphis in AAC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by less than 6 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-24 over the last 10 seasons good for 69.6% winners and made 28.6 units/unit wagered. Play against a home team (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Memphis is a poor 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992 and they are 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. Temple is 3-0 against the spread versus Memphis since 1992. Rhule is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as an underdog as the coach of Temple. Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Owls are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf. Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October. Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Tigers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Tigers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Memphis struggled in a 20-point loss at Ole Miss last week in its final non-conference tune-up. The Tigers' defense allowed 624 yards while the team committed four turnovers and seven penalties against the Rebels, leaving first-year coach Mike Norvell searching for answers. With a quick turnaround to this Thursday night battle, that could prove problematic. Temple has a high class defense that won't allow anywhere near the Tigers' numbers they posted in their 3 wins. The Owls also have had success, esepecially against the spread, when facing the Tigers. Owls K Austin Jones is 8-for-8 in field goals (long of 45) and 21-for-21 on extra points this season. Take Temple Owls with the points.

25* graded play on Arkansas State as they host Georgia Southern in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that AS will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win the game. will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. AS is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards; 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt.

Fundamental Discussion Points An 0-4 team getting just 4 points to a 3-1 team is somewhat rare. The biggest factor in this game is identifying why AS is 0-4. The strength of schedule (SOS) is the reason with AS having played Toledo, @ Auburn, @Utah State, and then losing at home to Western Michigan. That loss is not a good one admittedly, however, this was a huge wakeup call for the team. I am certain messages from coaches have emphasized the need to stop feeling sorry for themselves and that they have a great opportunity to represent the school very well on National TV. The Redwolves were a preseason pick to win the Sun Belt Conference, which can still happen since this is the first Conference game for the team.

5

50* graded play on Clemson as they take on Louisville in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game. Unless the line does move to +3 and a minimum money line of +140, the combination wager consisting of a 40* play using the line and a 10* play using the money line is not validated. If it does move to that level, then by all means place the combination wager. I do think that the line is more likely to go to 2 ½ then back down to pick-em given the recent public betting flows that have developed over the last three days.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-9 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites (LOUISVILLE) excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RY/G against a team with an excellent rushing defense allowing

25* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on TCU in BIG-12 the action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by more than 6 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-15 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 2010. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TCU) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is just 25-63 ATS (-44.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Sooners are a stout 123-64 ATS (+52.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992.

Fundamental Discussion Points We are going down to Forth Worth and going with Boomer and the Sooners in this Big 12 Matchup. These two teams traditionally have played close games, but we feel this is a statement game for Oklahoma as Houston and Ohio State have kept their big dreams at bay, but now they are back at home in the Big 12 where Bob Stoops has pretty much owned the conference. TCU lost a lot of offensive weapons coming into the season and have performed well this year so far. We think Oklahoma who comes into this game averaging 36 points per game will move the ball against the Horned Frog Defense and the defense will step up its game now that they are back in conference play. The Big 12 Championship is still in play for OU and we look for the Sooners to come in off a week of rest and be well prepared for this game. Baker Mayfield comes into this game with 7 touch down passes against 2 interceptions and look for this emotional leader to have a big day against the TCU defense.

Today it is Boomer Sooner and take Oklahoma and lay the 3 and a hook.

25* graded play on Texas as they take on Oklahoma State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game by at least 3 points. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-3 ATS mark good for 90% winners since 2010. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OKLAHOMA ST) solid team outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 38-10 ATS for 79% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS) solid offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas is a solid 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; OK State is just 37-94 ATS (-66.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points Texas runs the ball and then they run it again and again. They rank 7th in the nation averaging 52 rushing plays per game and rank 20th gaining 238 rushing yards per game. They are not a 1-dimensional team though and use the passing plays in vertical routes that are in man coverage and without deep safety help. Texas ranks 18th in pass completion percentage and 34th averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt. As you can already see, I do not believe that the Oklahoma State corners can get the job done in man coverage against very quick Texas wide-outs. Moreover, the OK State defensive front will get worn down over the course of the game and that makes play action an even greater scoring asset for Texas.

25* graded play on Iowa State as they take on Baylor in BIG-12 action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that IST will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. If you do have a money line for this game play a 3* amount in addition to the 25* play using the line.  

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark using the first-half line for 83% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 6 to 11.5 vs. the first half line (BAYLOR) with a good defense allowing 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Each season for the past 6, I have had a huge dog of 17 points or more not only cover, but also win the game. I am not suggesting this is that situation, but I do want to point out that fact so that when we release these huge dogs that you look to add the money line part of the play. I am seeing Money Lines in the +600 level and some even higher. IST has played a tougher schedule than Baylor, who has only played a solid competitor in OK State last week. Baylor has given up more than 200 rushing yards in their last two games. The more IST established the ground attack the greater their chances for the ATS win and the monumental upset too.

25* graded play on Appalachian State as they take on Georgia State in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that AS will win this game by at least 24 points.

Technical Discussion Points This is rare, but there are no supporting technical considerations. This does NOT in any way shape or form reduce the value of this play. The methodology is based first and foremost on the grading produced by the SIM Algorithms. The Technical data serve only to reinforce the play and to provide some specific details into the scope of the game.

Fundamental Discussion Points Next up we are going to Boone, NC and using the Mountaineers of Appalachian State over the Panthers of Georgia State. The last 2 years Appalachian State has won by a combined score of 81-3 and we see no difference here. Georgia State comes in winless but had a close call in Madison earlier this year. The Mountaineers come in with a balanced offense averaging 211 yards on the ground and 172 in the air. Appalachian State had 2 rough road games against Tennessee and Miami Florida and now are coming way down in class. The Mountaineers have been a money maker at home in these type of games and look for them to get the easy win in their first conference game. Take  Appalachian State and lay the 19.

25* graded play on Vanderbilt as they take on Florida in SEC action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot to win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points This is rare, but there are no supporting technical considerations. This does NOT in any way shape or form reduce the value of this play. The methodology is based first and foremost on the grading produced by the SIM Algorithms. The Technical data serve only to reinforce the play and to provide some specific details into the scope of the game.

Fundamental Discussion Points We are going to Nashville and taking the points with Vanderbilt against the Florida Gators. Florida had a nightmare second half in Knoxville last Saturday and we think the hangover will continue this week in a return to the volunteer state. Vanderbilt comes in with a 2-2 record has a pretty balanced offense and should be able to hang around against a Florida team who has a real good defense but is nothing special on offense. The Gator defense is stingy on the ground only allowing 76 yards per game and the pass defense statistically is good but the second half last week was exploited for over 300 yards. Very few if any weeks are easy on the SEC road and we look for a hard fought game at home similar to Florida's close win in the swamp last year and for the commodores to keep this one close again. Take Vanderbilt and grab the points.

25* graded play on Toledo as they take on BYU in NCAAF action set to start at 10:15 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot to win this game.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark good for 79% winners since 2010. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo is a solid 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they commit 1 less turnover than their opponents over the last 3 seasons. BYU is a money burning 26-85 ATS (-67.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points Toledo is on a serious and sustainable winning run. They are 3-0 SUATS and covered the three games by a whopping 36 points. This is certainly a step up in competition for Toledo, but one that I strongly believe they can defeat. The Toledo defense is playing extremely well and has been dominating the LOS with their size and LB quickness filling holes and shooting gaps. This is what the BYU OL has struggled with through four games. So, this is the critical matchup and obviously one that I strongly believe Toledo will dominate.

25* graded play on UCONN as they take on Houston in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCONN will lose this game by fewer than 22 points.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting 31-9 ATS for 78% winners since 2010. Play against home favorites (HOUSTON) allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Huston is an imperfect 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games.

Fundamental Discussion Points UCONN has the passing game to stay in this game. UCONN is not an elite passing team, but they do average 233 passing yards per game that rank 65th in the nation. The Houston passing defense has allowed 236 passing yards per game , which ranks 68th best in the nation. They are excellent at stopping the run and rank 2nd in the nation in that category. Further, UCONN connects on 67% of their pass attempts. They use quick slants, and hooks, which is a strong anecdote to ward off an aggressive defensive front.

25* graded play on Southern Mississippi as they take on UTEP in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SMU will win this game by 16 or more points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 83-37 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 2010. Play against home underdogs (UTEP) with a struggling scoring defense allowing 35 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. Here is a second system that has gone 45-17 ATS for 73% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (SOUTHERN MISS) allowing 200 or less total yards/game over their last 2 games with an experienced QB facing an opponent with inexperienced QB. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SM is a solid 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 net passing yards/attempt; UTEP is a miserable money burning 8-45 ATS (-41.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points Southern Miss comes into this game with a 2-1 record off a tough loss at home against Troy.  The Golden Eagles come into this game averaging 43 points a game versus 19 for UTEP. The Eagles own all the statistical angles in this game bringing the Better Rushing offense by 88 yards per game, Passing offense by 99 yards per game. Statistically are better on the defense side of the ball allowing only 97 yards on the ground versus 243 for the miners and allow 50 plus less passing yards per game. Basically saying Southern Miss comes off a 9-5 season returning 7 Starters on offense that averaged 40 points per game last year and most of the leading tacklers return. Last year they beat this same UTEP team at home by 21 putting up over 500 yards of Offense and holding the miners to 13 points and 298 yards of total offense. Southern Miss has a big road win already this year over Kentucky out of the SEC and we look for the Golden Eagles to get off to a big start in this Conference USA Western Division Matchup and use them as our top play today in El Paso.

25* graded play on LSU as they take on Auburn in SEC action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that LSU will win this game by 7 or more points.  

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-6 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 2010. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (AUBURN) with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LSU is a solid 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt; 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games when they score 22 to 28 points; 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 or less yards/play.

Fundamental Discussion Points Both head coaches are loved by their players, but are on the hot seat and another loss by either coach will turn the heat up on them even more. This would represent Auburn’s third home loss of the season and that unfortunately could be the final nail in his coaching coffin. The problem is the lack of consistency with the offense execution and playing against a team as strong as LSU is not the remedy. After starting the game against Texas A&M last week by completing his first six attempts, he bogged down and completed only 12 of his last 21 throws.

When he couldn't get the offense moving against the Aggies, Malzahn turned to junior college transfer James Franklin III in the fourth quarter. Franklin had two drives end with Auburn giving up the ball on downs, but he did get his team into the end zone for a late touchdown. Auburn will have no other option than to pound the ball between the tackles and I do not see that turning into any success against an LSU defense that will put 8 and 9 men in the box. Without play action capabilities resulting from an established run game, any of the Auburn QBs will be facing a mountain of pressure.

25* graded play on TCU as they take on SMU in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that TCU will win this game by more than 24 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-8 ATS mark good for 80% winners since 1992. Play on road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) after a game where they committed no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is a solid 39-11 ATS (+26.9 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards; SMU is just 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 5-22 ATS (-19.2 Units) when they allow 500 to 550 total yards; 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 150-200 yards. Patterson is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of TCU.

Fundamental Discussion Points TCU does have a big showdown coming up next week against Oklahoma. However, this is a short drive for TCU fans and there could easily be more TCU fans in the stands than the hometown folks. Plus, TCU does have the better coaching and that staff will not allow TCU to have any letdown in this game and will use this game as a full dress rehearsal for Oklahoma.

25* graded play on Georgia Tech as they take on Clemson in ACC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that GT will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a reasonable shot at pulling off a major upset. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-3 ATS mark good for 89% winners and has made 21 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on a home team during the first four weeks of the season (GEORGIA TECH) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning. This remarkable system is 6-0 ATS over the L5 seasons and 11-1 over the L10 seasons. Supporting the upset bid is a money line system that has gone 29-24 for 55% winners, BUT has made 34.2 units/unit wagered averaging a +201 DOG play since 1992. Play on home underdogs using the money line (GEORGIA TECH) after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is just 8-19 against the money line (-34.5 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt; GT is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Wreck, as we all know, has an offense designed from the triple option and involves power running between the tackles augmented by the treat of option plays attacking the perimeter of the defense. Another area that favors GT is penalties. If a DOG is going to trip up a top-10 opponent, then playing without mental mistakes and penalties is critical to attaining that goal. In three games Clemson has been flagged 20 times for 185 yards, while GT has been flagged just 8 times for 93 yards.

25* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on the action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot to win the game.    Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a ­­36-10 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 1992. Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses and is a team that had a winning record last season.

Fundamental Discussion Points Coming back with the USC Trojans getting 9 1\2 from the Stanford Cardinal, as we said last week the Trojans were embarrassed in Week 1 against Alabama and then easily covered the 16 last week against Utah State, holding the Aggies to their lowest total in a number of years. Stanford beat USC twice last year winning by 10 during the season and 19 in the Conference Championship game. Stanford lost several Offensive Lineman to graduation and struggled at times to move the ball against Kansas State but have 2 weeks to prepare for this game and probably have the best player on the field in Christian McCaffrey and bring an improved Defense. USC does have playmakers and should have learned something playing against the Alabama Defense. Look for the Trojan Offense to score enough points to keep this game close similar to the Trojans last trip up the coast in 2014. Take USC and the points.

Ryan’s 25* NCAA ‘Upset Alert’ Titan

35* graded play on Georgia Southern as they take on UL-Monroe in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that GS will win this game by 28 or more points.  

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LM is just 8-45 ATS (-41.5 Units) in road games when they score 14 or less points; 10-38 ATS (-31.8 Units) when they gain less than 4 total yards per play; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games when they gain 3.5 to 4 total yards per play; GS is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they allow 8 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.

Fundamental Discussion Points Georgia Southern has been a model of consistency and one of the more physical teams in the Sunbelt Conference. They typically control the line of scrimmage and wear down their opponents. Last year Ga Southern went to Monroe and put up 51 points and won by 20. Moreover, they return all starters on the defensive front and this will create a mountain of issues for LM to just move the chains. UL Monroe comes off a 2-9 season and only returns 3 starters from last years’ weak defense. We look for the GS offense to put up significant numbers but the defense to clamp down and keep the Warhawk offense to a couple of scores, if that, and easily cover this spread.

25* graded play on University of New Mexico as they take on Rutgers University in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UNM will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making these types of DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-12 since 1992 good for 75.5% winners and made 23.8 units/unit wagered. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 58% or worse, with 9 or more defensive starters returning. Another interesting system supports this play going 22-2 ATS: Play on any college football road team off a SU double-digit non-conference road favorite loss. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Rutgers is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992 and they are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games after a win by 35 or more points since 1992. Davie is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of New Mexico. Lobos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Scarlet Knights are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

Fundamental Discussion Points While still limited in his overall effectiveness, quarterback Chris Laviano was able to make some positive plays in the passing game against Howard. The redshirt junior, who could be playing for his job against New Mexico, only managed to connect with 50 percent of his passes for 137 yards. Giovanni Rescigno and Tylin Oden each saw time at quarterback for Rutgers in the second half against Howard, but neither attempted a pass. The Lobos' leading rusher Teriyon Gipson will miss the game while in the concussion protocol. New Mexico has several other capable runners including Tyrone Owens, and quarterback Austin Apodaca's ability to run and pass can provide a tough test for any defense. Take New Mexico Lobos.

25* graded play on San Diego State as they take on California in Western action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SDST will win this game by more than 9 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cal is 36-96 ATS (-69.6 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 13-52 ATS (-44.2 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt since 1992; 9-28 ATS (-21.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards since 1992; 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. SDST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Golden Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Golden Bears are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games on grass. Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Golden Bears are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Golden Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Golden Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Aztecs are 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Aztecs are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Aztecs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. 

Fundamental Discussion Points Defensively, the Golden Bears allowed 248 yards on the ground against Hawaii and will need an improved effort to slow down Pumphrey, the nation’s active leader in rushing yards (4,370), all-purpose yards (5,284) and 100-yard rushing games (22). Running back Khalfani Muhammad ran for 96 yards on 10 carries in the opener but could have trouble finding holes against an Aztecs defense that ranks sixth nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (106.2) since the start of last season. The home team has won all seven meetings. San Diego State has gone a school-record 13 games without throwing an interception. Take San Diego State Aztecs.

25* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Virginia Tech in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will win this game by at least 14 points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark good for 82% winners since 2010. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TENNESSEE) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Tennessee is a solid 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt ; 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards

Fundamental Discussion Points Virginia Tech is the public favorite this week with 62% against No. 17 ranked Tennessee; I am going with Tennessee. Though they underperformed in their opening game against Appalachian State, there is definitely reason to believe that they will rebound. In their first game they struggled with their offensive line lacking physicality and QB Dobbs underperforming, which I predict will both greatly improve this week.

It is hard to make a compelling statistical argument based on Tennessee’s lackluster performance in Week One. However, their defense performed well, holding their opponent to just 292 yards and only 13 points. Also, Tennessee’s offense only committed two turnovers in their season opener; Virginia Tech committed 4 turnovers in their season opener. In any sport, turnovers cost games, and this could be a potential difference maker for Tennessee. Look for number 17 Tennessee to come out physical this week to take down the public favorite, Virginia Tech.

25* graded play on UConn as they take on Navy in AAC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UConn will win this game. Make a 21* play using the spread and a 4* using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-8 over the last 5 seasons good for 80% winners and made 23.2 units/unit wagered. Play against Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NAVY) - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins, first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games. Another proven system supports this play posting a 59-24 since 1992 71.1% winners and made 32.6 units/unit wagered. Play ON underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CONNECTICUT) - with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Midshipmen are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Fundamental Discussion Points Navy's Tago Smith is out for the season ( Knee ). Quarterback Bryant Shirreffs was a one-man show for the Huskies in the opener, passing for 162 yards and rushing for 95 more on 20 carries. Ron Johnson (two touchdowns) and Arkeel Newsome (one) each carried the ball 15 times in the opener, combining for 105 yards. The Huskies were among the nation's stingiest defenses last season. College football and upsets of the public persona go hand in hand to make you more money when betting. Take Connecticut Huskies.

25* graded play on Wake Forest as they take on Duke in ACC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Wake Forest will win this game. Make a 21* play using the spread and a 4* using the money line.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wake Forest is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) when their defense forces 3 turnovers since 1992. Duke is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) when they commit 3 turnovers since 1992. Wake Forest is 8-3 straight up against Duke at home since 1992. Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Road team is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings head to head.

Fundamental Discussion Points A stout defensive effort made Hinton's early touchdown stand up as the Demon Deacons won their opener for the second year in a row. WF faced a real division 1 team in Tulane as opposed to Duke facing a barely division 1 team in NCCU to pad their stats. Walford has averaged 292 yards with five touchdowns in two career meetings with Duke. College football and upsets of the public persona go hand in hand to make you more money when betting. Duke is known for their basketball, not football...so take Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

25* graded play on Southern Cal  as they take on Utah State in NCAA action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 21 or more points.

Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah State is a money losing 4-26 ATS (-24.6 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards; USC is a stout 47-19 ATS (+26.1 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points Clay Helton comes back to the Coliseum after a big opening day shellacking on National TV. The Trojans Offense returned 10 starters from a team that averaged 34 points a game in 2015 and after getting shut down by the Bama D last week will look to turn it on against a Utah State team that had an easy going against a division 1A program. Utah State had to replace a big portion of its' defense only returning 3 starters from last years team. This gives us tremendous line value in this game and look for the Trojans to come out with a purpose this week and win this one easy. FIGHT ON.

50* graded play on FSU as they take on Mississippi in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by at least 9 points. FSU returns all 11 offensive starters including the QB obviously. Mississippi returns 10 starters with 5 on offense and 5 on defense. This is a monumental advantage for FSU, especially with the chemistry they now have on the OL for both pass blocking and run blocking.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-5 ATS mark good for 85% winners since 1992. Play against any team (OLE MISS) in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80% winning record) playing a team that had a winning record. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Mississippi is just 26-71 ATS (-52.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points. FSU is a solid 128-70 ATS (+51.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points.

Fundamental Discussion Points­ Jimbo Fisher and the Florida State Seminoles come into the 2016 season and many predict to be in the playoff hunt for a national title, the offense returns intact from last years team averaging 32 points per game but most likely will start the young Quarterback in this game. The defense lost some key personnel but this roster is loaded with talent all over and also brings in the nations top recruiting class. The FSU run game returns Dalvin Cook who many feel is the best running back in the country. Ole Miss comes into this game with the best Quarterback on the field in Chad Kelly, but will be without his top playmaker Laquan Treadwell who took his talents to the NFL. Hugh Freeze has done a great job at Ole Miss going to 4 straight bowl games and the only SEC team with Alabama's number. Ole Miss lost some key playmakers on defense and all everything tackle and main run stuffer Robert Nkemdiche. This should allow Florida State to control the ground game and the clock, keeping Chad Kelly and the Ole Miss offense frustrated. We look for Florida State to get off to a good start on their National Title Hopes today and will take the Seminoles where they are typically very strong playing at a neutral site, which should still feel like home for the Seminoles. Take FSU.

25* graded play on Texas as they take on Notre Dame in NCAA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Given this favorable projection I like making this play a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the Money Line. Current ML are in the +150 range. Should the line movement decrease to below +140 then simply play a 25* amount using the line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-24 ATS for 71% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS) with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season.  The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is a money burning 18-69 ATS (-57.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; Texas is a solid 38-10 ATS (+27.0 Units) when they rush for 6 or more yards per attempt.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Longhorns look like an improved team after closing the 2015 campaign with a win at Baylor and bringing in another top recruiting class. “The attitude of the team right now ­– offense, defense, special teams – is something we didn't have last year, in my opinion,” Texas defensive coordinator Vance Bedford told reporters. “Guys are focused, ready to go. They're ready to prove that last year was a fluke.” Swoopes got the start last season at Notre Dame and went 7-of-22 for 93 yards as the Longhorns were outgained 527-163.

25* graded play on BYU as they take on Arizona in non-conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BYU will win this game by at least 4 points.

Technical Discussion Points The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU is 53-29 ATS (+21.1 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Arizona is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Rodriguez is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday in all games he has coached since 1992. Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Wildcats are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games on grass. Wildcats are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.

Fundamental Discussion Points The Cougars will display a variety of pro-style sets under new offensive coordinator Ty Detmer, who threw for more than 15,000 yards in his BYU career. Hill started last year's season opener against Nebraska before suffering a season-ending injury that opened the door for Mangum to throw for 3,377 yards and 23 touchdowns. The Cougars should have a much better running game led by Jamaal Williams, who sat out last season after withdrawing from school and returns 930 yards shy of breaking the school rushing record. Where they'll need players to step up is the receiving corps, where only one of the top four pass catchers return from last season and that's Nick Kurtz, who caught 39 passes for 578 yards and three touchdowns. Like the Cougars, the Wildcats will also be thin on experience at wide receiver compared to a year ago, as last season's leading receiver, Cayleb Jones, left early for the NFL and second-leading receiver Johnny Jackson used up his eligibility. Freddie Tagaloa is expected to anchor an offensive line still reeling from the sudden death last month of Zach Hemmila, who started six games at left guard last season. Last season 'Zona's defense allowed 46.8% 3rd down conversions and 92% red zone scoring while BYU only allowed 38.4% 3rd down conversions and 75% red zone scoring.

25* graded play on Auburn as they take on Clemson in NCAA action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at a major upset win. Given this favorable projection, I like making these combination wagers using a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. I am seeing lines north of +275, so this represents a tremendous investment opportunity. Over the course of the season, these combination wagers will add a significant amount to the bottom line.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-8 mark good for 80% ATS winners since 2005. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AUBURN) and is a team that had a winning record last season, playing in a non-conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.

Fundamental Discussion Points While Clemson is obviously the clear favorite for the public at 67% (as of Aug. 30th) and ranked at number two in the AP Preseason Pool, I have decided to go with Auburn. Clemson undoubtedly had an incredible year last year, but also lost nine players due to the NFL draft (compared to Auburn’s three). With seven of those draftees being defensive players, Clemson only has four returning defensive starters. Only one starter remains in Clemson’s secondary, so look for Auburn QB Sean White to attack the secondary in the season opener. Sean White has emerged as the Auburn starter in the wake of a 3 way QB battle over the summer; he brings experience and knowledge of the offense to the field, which is very important in the opening weeks.

25* graded play on Penn State as they take on Kent State in NCAA action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will win this game by 20 or more points.

Technical Discussion PointsSupporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-4 ATS mark good for 87% winners since 2006. Play against any team in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses and is now facing an opponent in the first month of the season that was a bowl team from prior season and who lost their last 3 games. The need for PSU to get out of the gate well is only magnified by how they finished last season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KSU is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when they allow 42 to 48 points; 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games when they gain 4 or less net passing yards/attempt; 6-23 ATS (-19.3 Units) in road games when they gain 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; PSU is a stout 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) when they gain 550 or more total yards.

Fundamental Discussion Points KSU finished dead last in D_1 offensive scoring last season. PSU returns just 5 defensive starters, but the additions are vastly superior to those players replaced by graduation. They have the perfect offensive opponent and the offense will shred the Flash defense. Not to mention that PSU is back to fully strength with 85 scholarship players.

25* graded play on Vanderbilt as they take on South Carolina in SEC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will win this game by at least 7 points.

Fundamental Discussion Points Vanderbilt has high hopes for a successful campaign in the elite SEC Conference, but the public is giving them no respect at all. Consensus betting as of this morning showed only 33% support for the Vanderbilt. What is really revealing is that despite the lack of love, the line has moved up from an opening line of -3 to -4. This is somewhat rare and reflects the smart money (big bettors) coming in on Vanderbilt in size that more than offsets the public’s $100 bets.

The Commodores’ defense took a big jump last year when Mason took over as coordinator, and the unit returns enough key players to expect a repeat performance. Sophomore quarterback Kyle Shurmur has won the job after starting five of the final six games last season and throwing for 503 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. The return of receiver C.J. Duncan after missing last season due to injury gives the Commodores a solid receiving corps to complement running back Ralph Webb (1,152 rushing yards, 5 TDs last season). 

I certainly believe that SC will have a very tough time running the ball. South Carolina RB David Williams is the team’s top returning rusher (299 yards in 2015) at his position but is behind redshirt freshman A.J. Turner on the depth chart.

50* graded play on the Clemson Tigers as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the NCAA Nationals Championship game set to start at 8:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the Championship. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 40* play using the line and a 10* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-29 mark good for 53% winners, BUT has made 39 units/unit wagered averaging a +211 DOG play since 2010. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (CLEMSON) in a game involving two good rushing teams with both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is a near-perfect 7-1 against the money line (+6.4 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 season; 26-9 against the money line (+22.7 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play. I have studied the matchups in this game just like any other release I have done in my 21 years. This one is clear and straight forward. I do not believe that Alabama will be able to contain the ultimate two-dimensional offensive threat in Watson. I think he will play one of his best games ever tonight and lead the Tigers to the Championship. Take Clemson.

35* graded play on K-State as they take on Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl set to start at 3:30 PM ET, January 2, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that K-State will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at an upset win. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. There has been a significant growth in ‘adjusted lines’ this season. These lines are adjust by 7 ½ points and then include a comparable ‘vig’ for each line. I have found that using the DOG lines with these 35* releases has added significantly to the overall ROI. So, you may see a K-State +4 ½ line at about +230 vig. If you have access to that, then substitute the money line portion of the combination wager with the adjusted line. So, that adjusted line combo wager would be a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the adjusted line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-29 ATS mark good for 69% winners since 1992. Play against any team (ARKANSAS) average team (+/- 0.6 YPP) against a struggling team (outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP), after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. K-State is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing

35* graded play on Penn State as they take on Georgia in the Gator Bowl set to start at Noon ET, January 2, 2016. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-14 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU HC Franklin is 4-0 against the money line (+9.1 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game in all games he has coached. The Georgia coaching staff is in complete disarray with the firing of HC Richt after 14 seasons and 147 wins and the fall out from that decision. So, this Georgia team lacks leadership and I do belevie it will be a factor in this game. PSU struggled big on offense this season, but has a possible first round pick in QB Hackenberg. The PSU defense is one of the most under rated units in the nation. They will get pressure on any Georgia QB in this game. Georgia has had massive trouble at QB this season and is most evident when pressured. Penn State is the play.

35* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Rose Bowl set to start at 5:00 PM ET New Years Day. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by 10 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa has had a great season and definitely exceeded even the most optimistic goals. However, Stanford is one of the best teams in the nation and will have significant matchup advantages on both sides of the ball. Iowa is just 18-59 ATS (-46.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 8-35 ATS (-30.5 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 9.5 to 10 net passing yards/attempt; Stanford is a strong 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 34-11 ATS (+21.9 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards; 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play. Further, Stanford played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation while Iowa played a relatively soft Big Ten schedule avoiding Michigan and Ohio State. Stanford had the 12th toughest SOS. Oklahoma had the toughest while Iowa ranks 45th. Take Stanford to roll big.

50* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the Michigan Wolverines in the Citrus Bowl set to start at 1:00 PM ET New Years Day. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Florida will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 39* play using the line and a 11* play using the money line. There has been an advent of the ‘adjusted lines’ this football season. These lines adjust the spread by 7 ½ points in both directions and matches the corresponding ‘vig’ to those lines. You will see a line most likely showing Florida at – 3 ½ and +230 for the adjusted spread. On the other side you will see Florida +10 ½ and -200ish. ALWAYS go with the DOG vig with my plays. In the majority of our wins, the cover is by double digits, which also brig the adjust spread wager as a winner too. So, a suggestion is to wager a 35* play on the line, a 9* play using the money line, and then 6* play on the adjusted -3 ½ Florida spread. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Florida is a solid 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons; 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games when they allow 100 to 150 rushing yards. Further technical setups show that Florida is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons. Michigan has been a money losing 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. Take Florida.

35* graded play on Alabama as they take on Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This game will be at Jerry’s House or by the proper name Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX.  SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Alabama will win this game by more than 16 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these FAVS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the adjusted line. For this play consider making a 28* play on the line and a 7* play using the – 17 ½ +220ish adjusted line. If you don’t have access to the adjusted lines, then simply make a 35* play using the line. Alabama’s defense will be the difference in this game. They have been one of the best defensive units in the past decade and don’t see MSU being able to get enough out of their ground attack to compete for the entire game. Alabama defense ranks first in the nation in rushing defense and have not allowed any opponent to gain more than 91 yards (Auburn) over the past five games. Plus, their ground attack has peaked and is just unstoppable – even by a solid MSU defensive unit. The ‘Bama ground attack has gained more than 195 yards rushing in five straight games. The 195 stat was against Charleston Southern where they only rushed the ball 35 times in a 56-6 mercy rule game. Factor out that game and the ground attack has gained at least 235 yards. Moreover, they have turned the ball over just 3 times in the past five games and have not had more than 1 turnover in any of the last seven games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MSU is just 18-43 ATS (-29.3 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points; ‘Bama is 102-51 ATS (+45.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. Take Alabama.

35* graded play on Florida State as they take on Houston in the Chick-Fil-a Bowl set to start at Noon on New Year’s Eve. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 10 or more points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these favorites combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the adjusted line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the adjusted line that will show FSU at -14 ½ +230ish at most books. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-14 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 2005. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off a double digit road win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Houston is just 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play; 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when they allow 35 to 41. FSU 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. Houston has had a great season, but their SOS has been vastly weaker than that faced by FSU. I also don’t see FSU taking Houston lightly either as head coach Fisher and his staff are great motivators and will have their units fully prepared. Take FSU.

35* graded play on Auburn as they take on Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl set to start at Noon ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by at least 7 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. This season has seen an explosive growth in the adjusted lines offered at nearly every book in Vegas. This give us the opportunity to gain greater returns using the dog lines provided. So, we will always go in the direction of a more difficult cover. So, for example, you will see Auburn at +3 1/2 and -10 ½ with vigs of -200 and +230 respectively. We will always go with the dog vig as it offers a much better long-term ROI than trying to benefit from the favored laying wood vig. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the adjusted spread. If one is not available then simply wager a 35* play using the line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Memphis 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game. Memphis HC Dickey is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game in all games he has coached. Memphis last played a month ago on November 28 and destroyed SMU 63-0 and easily covered as 19 ½ point favorites. Auburn plays a vastly more difficult schedule than Memphis and is a seasoned experienced team. They are coming off a disappointing season where early on they were ranked as high as No. 4 in the pools. So, I believe the team will look to play very hard and send off the Seniors with a big win in their last game. Take Auburn.

35* graded play on California as they take on Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET, December 29, 2015. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Cal will win this game by more than 10 points. Cal started the season with 17 returning starts with 8 on offense and 9 on defense. They also have had their QB return and these units are both very experienced and have great team chemistry. The featured player in this game though will be Cal’s Goff, who is playing his final collegiate game. He is projected by many experts to be the first QB taken in the upcoming April NFL draft and for very good reasons. This was another outstanding season for Goff, who broke his own school records for passing yards (4,252) and TD passes (37), and closed the regular season with a school-record 542 yards and five scores in a 48-46 win over Arizona State. He became only the ninth Pac-12 quarterback to throw for 4,000 or more yards in a season. Many of the records he broke at Cal were previously held by Aaron Rodgers. He still has one year of eligibility left, but the NFL is the right move. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. AF is just 35-80 ATS (-53.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when they allow 9 to 9.5 net passing yards/attempt; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 10-37 ATS (-30.7 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards; Cal is a solid 37-12 ATS (+23.8 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt. Further, we note that AF is just 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) facing excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.CAL ranks fifth in pass completion percentage and 6th gaining 359 passing yards per game. AF just does not have the defensive depth to contain this high powered and very fast offense. Take Cal.

35* graded play on Duke as they take on Indiana in the Pinstripe Bowl being played at Yankee Stadium and set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Duke will win the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line anda 7* play using the money line. However, you must get a minimum of +140 on the money line to validate the risk/reward profile for this projection. If it is less than +140, simply make a 35* wager using the line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Indiana is just 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 15-35 ATS (-23.5 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 8-28 ATS (-22.8 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 rushing yards per attempt; 5-23 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they allow 500 to 550 total yards; 10-48 ATS (-42.8 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards; Duke is a strong 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play. Take Duke.

35* graded play on Western Michigan as they take on Middle Tennessee State in the Bahamas Bowl set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that WMU will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-27 mark good for 71% winners since 2005. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIDDLE TENN ST) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now fcacing an opponent off a road win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MTST is just 31-61 ATS (-36.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards; WMU is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. In summary, I don’t see the MTST secondary being able to hold up against the constant pressure of the WMU balanced attack. WMU has a strong ground game and this will open up play action in man coverage where the WMU receivers are physically superior. Further, the WMU OL will wear down a smaller sized MTST defensive front. Take Western Michigan.

35* graded play on Georgia Southern as they take on Bowling Green in the GoDaddy.com Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that GS will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 30* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. 10-4 against the money line (+6.8 Units) when they gain 150 or less net passing yards over the last 2 seasons; BG is just 5-17 against the money line (-16.0 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards; 2-9 against the money line (-11.9 Units) when facing an excellent rushing teams averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry. Further, BG has been a money burning 3-9 against the money line (-22.0 Units) after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers since 1992. Fritz is 8-1 against the money line (+7.0 Units) facing good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. as the coach of GSU.

35* graded play on Akron as they take on Utah State on the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Akron will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a great shot at winning the bowl game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 69-32 ATS mark good for 68.3% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (AKRON) with an excellent rushing defens allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah State is just 1-8 against the money line (-7.9 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards over the last 3 seasons. Further, Utah State has been a weak 14-37 against the money line (-26.4 Units) in non-conference games. Take Akron.

35* graded play on BYU as they take on Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that BYU will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at winning the game.  Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. However, make certain that you get at least +145 on the ML as it that price validates the added risk with the combination wager and maximizes the ROI. If the ML is not at +145 and higher, then simply wager a 35* play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-36 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 1992. Paly on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BYU) and is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG, after a win by 21 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Mendenhall is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of BYU. Needless to say Utah has a strong ground attack, but BYU will contain them to less than 200 rushing yards. BYU will then put Utah into third and long passing downs. The more of these situations the greater the probability that BYU wins the game. Also, BYU has a huge edge in the passing game and I see Utah struggling to consistently defend the middle of the field. Take BYU.

35* graded play on Arizona as they take on New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-18 ATS mark good for 71.4% winners since 1992. Play against home underdogs (NEW MEXICO) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Arizona is a solid 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points; 27-4 ATS (+22.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards; NMU is just 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41points in a game; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons; 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 total yards per play. Take Arizona.

50* graded play on Clemson as they take on North Carolina in the ACC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by at least 7 points. This season has seen a growth in the ’adjusted lines’ at a large number of books. These offer a great opportunity form a combination of line and adjusted lines for a much greater return (ROI).  So, I expect a line showing Clemson at 12 ½ +220 or possibly Clemson -14 ½ and +260. Either will work. So, consider making a combination wager using a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the adjusted line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 64-26 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 2005. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (N CAROLINA) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a road win. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UNC is just 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards; Clemson is a solid 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. UNC has demonstrated quick strike plays on offense, but they have not faced a defense as strong as Clemson. UNC ranks 15th in the nation averaging 492 yards per game and 2nd with a 0.599 points-per-play ratio. Clemson, though ranks 7th in the nation allowing just 296 YPG and 22nd with a 0.297 points per play ratio. Further, they are tops in the nation allowing 23.9% third down conversions. Clemson has been great at getting tackles for loss, especially in early down situations and this will be the case again today. Putting UNC into third and long situations plays right into the strength of the Tigers defense. Take Clemson.

35* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on the Naylor Bears in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play, there is a low chance that Texas pulls of the upset, but I have at least one 20+ DOG that has pulled up the upset in the last 6 seasons. I have yet to have one this season. This DOES NOT mean I due to have one either as you never know when it will happen. For this play consider making a 35* play on the line and then if available, play a 3* amount on the money line. Adjusted spreads have come into vogue this season, if available that is an excellent opportunity. The line would be adjusted down to 13 points with Texas paying out at +220 or so. So, if that is available then make a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using that adjusted line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-11 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 1992. Play against home favorites (BAYLOR) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games and now facing an opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is just 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) after 3 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers. Further, Texas HC Strong is a solid Strong is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses in all games he has coached. Take the Texas Longhorns.

35* graded play on the Temple Owls as they take on Houston for the American Conference Championship set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 27* play using the line and an 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-22 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (TEMPLE) after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Temple is a solid money making 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons; 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play. Temple is going for it’s first conference title in 48 seasons. Under HC Rhule, the Owls went 8-16 in their first two season, but with strong Senior leadership this season have posted a 10-2 mark overall and 7-1 in conference play. Houston has an excellent QB in Ward and he has connected to former QB, now WR Demarcus Ayers, who has 89 catches on the season. Yet, the Temple defense is extremely good and play very disciplined gap defense, which is critical in containing the run and pass threat of Ward. The winner of this game gets a possible invite to a New Years Six Bowl, which may be the Peach. I strongly believe it will be Temple.

35* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Bowling Green in the MAC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that NIU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a decent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Many times, the money line spreads become excessively wide when the line is double digits. In this game, look for a ML price of +400 to construct the combination wager. +375 is an ‘ok’ level, but look for +400 at your books. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a a 31-33 mark for just 48% winners, BUT has made a whopping 60 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a very nice +300 DOG play. Play against neutral field favorites using the money line (BOWLING GREEN) and is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. NUI is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off 1 or more consecutive ‘unders’ over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games this season. Take Northern Illinois University.

35* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in NCAA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by more than 6 points. As many of you know, I did not like seeing Notre Dame in the Top-4 spots in Week1 and Week 2 playoff releases. Not because I dislike the program, but because my data and facts pointed otherwise. Iowa has finally earned their media right to be among the play-off four with a great road win at Lincoln and with the Cornhuskers fully rested off of the BYE. We had Iowa as another 35* ATS winner as well. We also had Boston College in a near upset over Notre Dame, in a game where the Irish had five turnovers. Now, there is no way I see the Irish having 5 turnovers, let alone maybe two turnovers in this game this week. But, what I did see was a highly unfocused team with numerous dropped passes and poor route execution, and not having the focus and will to win despite the seriousness of the game. Stanford has tremendous speed on offense. Notre Dame has yet to play a team with this much elite quickness and speed. With Christian McCaffrey running past defenders and into Heisman Trophy consideration and freshman Bryce Love taking advantage of his limited opportunities to deliver big plays in a flash, the Cardinal have become more difficult to defend than ever. I just do not see the Irish defense holding up against the constant pressure of the Cardinal offensive attack. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Cardinal is a stout 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they rush for 250 to 300 yards; 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season; 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play this season. There have been 17 games where the Cardinal has gained 200-250 rushing yards in a game since 1992. This is rare, but the algorithm shows a very strong probability that it will happen. As shown above they are 13-4 ATS when it does occur. Take Stanford.

35* graded play on Penn State as they take on Michigan State in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has an outside shot at a stunning upset. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 32* play using the line and a 3* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-23 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) that is a hot team, having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team winning between 60% to 80% of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. PSU is a solid 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games; PSU head coach Franklin is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached. PSU has the elite defensive unit to disrupt the flow of the MSU offense scheme. PSU also has a potential top-10 draft pick in QB Hackenberg, who I fully expect to play his best game yet this season. PSU simply has nothing to lose being bowl eligible and can essentially take chances and play a focused non-pressure type of game. That is the worst foe a team fighting for the top-4 in the CFP rankings to face. Take Penn State.

35* graded play on the Iowa Hawkeyes as they take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a major BIG TEN Conference game set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that IOWA will win this game by 4 or more points. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play it is a bit different in that you need access to the adjusted lines if possible. The adjusted line is showing Iowa – 7 ½ +220. So, my suggestion is to make a 29* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 1992. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEBRASKA) in a game involving two good rushing teams gaining between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR after 7+ games, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Iowa is a solid 83-25 ATS (+55.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points; 16-63 ATS (-53.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) when both teams score 28 or more points. Take Iowa.

35* graded play on the UCLA Bruins as they take on Utah in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that UCLA well win this game by three or more points.  Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play there is NO opportunity for this type of combination wager since the ML is nowhere close the minimum +145 threshold needed to validate the wager. So, simply play this with the line you get as a 35* wager. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 65-30 ATS mark good for 68.4% winners since 2010. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (UCLA) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a solid offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Utah is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points. The number 28 comes up frequently in the NCAA matchups and teams that are more capable of exceeding that mark consistently have greater probabilities of covering ATS. In this case, Utah is coming off a horrid double OT loss to Arizona, which could possibly take them out of the PAC-12 Championship game and certainly the Final-4 playoff rankings. They lost RB Booker to a knee injury on top of everything else and I believe it will be extremely difficult for the Utes to recover from the 'hangover' of last Saturday. Take UCLA. 

35* graded play on Northwestern as they take on Wisconsin in Big TEN Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Northwestern will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a moderate shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a  31* play on the line and a 4* play on the massive money line is very attractive. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-18 for 56% winners and has made a whopping 57 units/unit wagered averaging a +325 DOG play since 2010. Play on road underdogs using the money line (NORTHWESTERN) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins and is now facing an opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Northwestern is a solid 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt;18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games when they allow 3.5 to 4 rushing yards per attempt; 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Take Wisconsin.

35* graded play on USC as they take on Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that USC will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 27* graded play using the line and a 8* graded play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-28 mark using the money line good for 53% winners, but has made a whopping 58 units/unit wagered averaging a +270 DOG play over the last five seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. USC is a solid 17-3 against the money line (+12.5 Units) when they gain 500 to 550 total yards; 35-8 against the money line (+20.3 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards; 28-7 ATS (+20.3 Units) when they gain 6.5 to 7 total yards per play. Fuerther, we see that USC is near-perfect  10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game since 1992. Take the TROJANS.

35* graded play on Penn State as they take on Michigan in Big TEN Conference action set to start at Noon PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great chance to win the game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line as long as you can get +145 or higher with the money line. I have seen +155 and higher so this combination wager is validated. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-7 mark good for 79.4% winners using the money line and has made 21.4 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against a road team using the money line (MICHIGAN) and is a solid offensive team gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and is now facing a solid defense allowing between 4.2 to 4.8 YPP and after 7+ games and after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. This system is 13-2 making 11.6 units/unit wagered over the last 10 seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Michigan is just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored;  1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. PSU is a solid  21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. I fully realize that PSU is 0-4 after their BYE week under Franklin, but this is a vastly different team with an elite defense that is fully rested. Michigan's last two opponents were unranked and the Wolverines had to fight for their Big Ten lives just to win. Now, they enter a fully rested and highly motivated PSU team play their last home game of the season and it also being Senior Day. I also took a look at the emergence of Michigan receiver Chesson, who had 4 TD catches, 207 yards on 10 catches in their double OT win at Indiana just last week. PSU defense will contain him and play very physically at the LOS. I think you will see a cover-2 variation where the corners will be able to bump him at the LOS knowing they have deep safety help. PSU has been able to stop the run without safety help this season. Take the Lions.

50* graded play on East Carolina as they take on UCF in American Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that ECU will win this game by 20 or more points. UCF is winless and they rank in the bottom of the national rankings in all meaningful stat categories. Their defense ranks 116th in scoring defense allowing 38.7 PPG, 117th with a 0.542 points-per-play ratio, 115th allowing 48% third-down conversions, 10th allowing 212 rushing yards per game, and 93rd allowing 257 passing yards per game. Now, ECU is not a blazing offensive powerhouse, but they have massive matchup advantages. They rank 39th converting 43% of all third down situations and rank 33rd gaining 261 passing yards per game. Without wasting more space and your team, the matchup on the other side is equally as favorable for ECU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 52-24 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2005. Play on a road team (E CAROLINA) after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCF is just 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 1 to 1.5 yards/play. McNeill is a solid McNeill is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of ECU. Safe to say that ECU will gain well over 100 rushing yards in this contest. Take ECU Pirates. 

35* graded play on Western Michigan as they take on Northern Illinois in MAC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that WMU will win this game. Monday we had Texans in a huge +400 money line play combined with the 28* line play, and then last night we had a significant dog winner with Ohio University. To validate the combination wager based on the risk/.reward profiles, we need to see +145 on the money line. Currently, I am seeing just +130, so this line would have to move to 3 1/2 and that really is not expected. If it does, then consider playing a 30* amount on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-12 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (W MICHIGAN) off a home loss by 14 or more points, a team winning between 51% to 60% of their games and is now playing a winning record team. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. WMU is a perfect  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Take Western Michigan. 

35* graded play on Toledo as they take on Bowling Green in NCAA MAC Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Toledo will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at a major road win over BG. Given this favorable projection and in the same manner as my most previous upset alert plays on the Detroit Lions and last night's big SU win with the Texans, I like making this a combination wager. It is comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-15 mark good for 74% winners using the money line and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 2010. Play on a road team vs. the money line (TOLEDO) excellent rushing team averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo has the ground attack to gain a sizable edge in TOP and keep BG offense off the field. They rank 14th in the nation averaging 5.3 YPR and 20th gaining 217 rushing yards per game. BG defense ranks 63rd allowing 4.3 YPR and 63rd allowing 170 rushing yards per game. This is the dominant matchup that will lead Toledo to the ATS win and upset. Take Toledo. 

35* graded play on Idaho as they host Appalachian State in NCAA action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a very high probability that Idaho will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. If a money line is available, which is a stretch given the magnitude of the line, consider maing this a 32* play using the line and a 3* play using the money line. Each year for the past five seasons, I have had a 20+ DOG win outright. This does not mean that I will have one this year and of course I never know when it will occur. Being prepared for that massive upset is the point and I why I am suggesting the combination wager. I am seeing +900/950 at several books, so hopefully yours will offer you this opportunity as well. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-7 ATS mark good for 79.4% winners since 2005. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (APPALACHIAN ST) after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This system has gone 14-2 ATS over the L5 seasons and 50% of all plays made by the criteria of the system have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Idaho has been quite good on offense this year ranking 57th in the nation scoring 29 PPG and 41st with a 61.6% pass completion percentage. They will throw the ball again and again in this matchup and will be able to move the chains against App State. This type of fast paced offense is expected to wear down the APP defensive front and secondary where they are already thin. Take Idaho. 

35* graded play on Troy as they host Georgia Southern in SUN Belt Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIm algorithm shows a high probability that Troy will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at up[setting GS. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-17 mark good for 69% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered using the MONEY LINE since 1992. It has averaged a +118 DOG play as well. Play on a home team using the money line (TROY) off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Troy is a solid 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when they allow 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Toy is also 10-2 against the money line (+11.0 Units) in home games when they allow 22 to 28 points;  6-1 against the money line (+9.4 Units) in home games when they outgain their opponents by 0.5 or less yards/play. GS ranks first in the nation averaging 6.9 YPR, but this is quite misleading given their very weak SOS. They run the ball on 85% of their plays and really have no passing threat. Troy's strength on defense is certainly stopping the run where they rank 53rd allowing 4.1 YPR. They also have a a solid pass rush that ranks 24th getting a sack on 8% of all plays run. This also means that Troy can use that penetration to fill gaps and seal perimeters against the GS ground attack. They will contain the ground game more than enough for the offense to score points and remain fully competitive. Take Troy. 

35* graded play on Western Michigan as they take on Bowling Green in MAC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that WMU will win this game. If you can get +145 or higher on the money line then I like making this a combination wager using a 29* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 1992. Play on a home team (W MICHIGAN) after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BG is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. WMU is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons. Further, WMU is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. BG has one of the best offenses in the country led by their passing attack. However, WMU is solid defending the pass and rank 45th allowing 211 passing yards per game. The WMU ground attack will be the dominating factor leading WMU to a win. They rank 17th gaining 5.2 YPR and will also use play action to exploit a BG secondary that ranks 104th allowing 269 passing yards per game. Take Western Michigan. 

35* graded play on Ohio University as they host Kent State in NCAA action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Ohio will win this game by at least 10 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Kent State is just 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt; 10-33 ATS (-26.3 Units) when they gain 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Ohio University is a solid  25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) when they allow 5 or less net passing yards/attempt; 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 total yards; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 150-200 yards. Kent State is a struggling offensive team to say the least. They rank 125th in scoring at 12.2 PPG, 124th gaining 124 yards per game, and 126th with a 0.179 points per play ratio. I believe Ohio will contain any offensive threat by Kent State. Ohio has a vastly better offense and one that can wear down the Kent State defensive front over the course of the game. They rank 58th gaining 399 yards per game and Kent ranks 44th allowing 375 yards per game. Kent just will not have the offensive fire power to keep up with Ohio on the scoreboard. Take Ohio. 

35* graded play on LSU as they take on Alabama in a monster showdown in the SEC set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows that LSU will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I love making these DOGS into combination wagers using a 26* play using the line and a 9* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven MONEY LINE system posting a 21-17 mark good for 55% winners, BUT has made a whopping 54 units/unit wagered since 2010. It has averaged an even more amazing +338 DOG play. Play on road underdogs vs. the money line (LSU) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins. Here is a second money line system that has gone 28-9 and has made 20 units/unit wagered averaging a +104 DOG play. Play on a road team using the money line (LSU) that is an excellent offensive team gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing a solid offensive offensive team gaining between 390 to 440 YPG after 7+ games of the regular season and after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games. This system is 2-0 this season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is just 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) in home games after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Les Miles is Miles is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a game where they committed no turnovers as the coach of LSU. Alabama has a strong defensive unit, but I do not expect them to hold up against arguably the best offensive team in the nation. LSU ranks second in the nation averaging 0.59 points/play, 6th averaging 7.1 yards per play, and 2nd averaging 6.7 YPR. The LSU defense is a quite strong in their own right and ranks just below Alabama in several of categorical gradings. Yet, the LSU unit will be going against a much weaker offensive unit than that being faced by Alabama today. So, there is a much greater chance LSU dominates on defense and LSU just wears down the Alabama defensive front. Take LSU. 

35* graded play on Auburn as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm projects a strong probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-16 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 1992. Play against home favorites (TEXAS A&M) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Texas A&M is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons; Sumlin is just Sumlin is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) after the first month of the season as the coach of Texas A&M. Now, here is an exceptional money line system that uncerscores the chance for the SU Auburn win. It has gone 36-37 for 49% winners, BUT has made a whopping 45.4 units per unit wagered since 2005. It has averaged an amazing +228 DOG play with that DOG winning the game 49% of the time. Play on road underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (AUBURN) with a terrible defense allowing 425 or more total yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Take Auburn.

35* graded play on Clemson as they host FSU in a huge showdown in the ACC set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIm algorithm shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game by at least 14 points.  If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision tress and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Clemson Tigers. The following technical research reinforces the graded ALGO play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-13 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites (CLEMSON) in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. 50% of these plays based on the system criteria covered the spread by at least 7 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clemson is a money making 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt;  10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons;    26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards; 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards. Further, we see that FSU is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) facing very good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Clemson is a rock solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game. The Clemson defense is the dominant reason they are ranked No.1 in the nation. They have allowed opponents to convert on 3rd down just 20% on the season and ranks BEST in the nation. FSU is not a strong running team. They rank 48th getting 180 yards per game, but I fully expect Clemson's defensive front to dominate and force FSU into third-and-long situations. On the other side of the ball, Clemson has a punishing ground attack ranking 21st and gaining 216 yards per game. Despite Clemson rushing the ball nearly 60% of all plays, they rank 34th averaging 263 passing yards per game. This is in large part to the play action routes that open up the middle of the field due to the defense having to play safeties in the box. Take Clemson. 

35* graded play on San jose State as they host BYU in NCAA action set to start at 11:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that SJST will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. If you can get action on the money line then make this a combination wager comprised of a 31* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. BYU has been a money burning 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt. SJST has an excellent ground attack that matches up quite well against the BYU run defense. It will be that ground attack that then will open up play action in vertical routes for SJST. Moving the chains will critical and SJST has done much better than BYU in 3rd down conversions. BYU ranks 90th converting 37% of those plays while SJST ranks 29th converting 44% of these plays. Further, SJST pass defense ranks best in the nation allowing just 131 passing yards per game. Granted, this is in large part due to their struggles to stop the run. BYU ranks a weak 101st in rushing yards per game. Take San Jose State. 

35* graded play on Kent State as they host Buffalo in NCAA action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. SIm algorithm shows a high probability that KS will win this game. Normally, I would make this a combination wager, but at +2 line, the money line is not near high enough. However, if you do get a favorable line movement this afternoon and you can get +150 on the ML, then I suggest making a 27* play using the line and a 8* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-17 mark good for 67% winners and has made a very nice +29 units/unit wagered since 2010. It has averaged a +160 dog too making this a formidable system to use moving forward. Play on a home team vs. the money line (KENT ST) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Buffalo has been a money burning 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams averaging

50* graded play on Stanford as they take on Washington State in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by at least 17 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-14 mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play against home underdogs (WASHINGTON ST) after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Stanford is a perfect  8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points this season; 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons; WSU is a money losing  2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt; 14-36 ATS (-25.6 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards since 1992;  5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Teams evolve in college football and the turnover occurs every season and student athletes are on the roster for four years. However, the stats that extend back to 1992 as well as the shorter term ones bring to the light the most valid game stats and their outcomes. When a college teams scores 28 or more points, it can be a very strong indicator for the overall ATS outcome of the game. Such is the case with this matchup. I strongly believe that Stanford will easily score 28 points and could do it before half time. They are an elite offense and one that is flying under the radar. WSU defense has allowed a huge number of points and Stanford has just too much depth for the Cougars to contain for the entire game. Take Stanford. 

35* graded play on Temple as they host Notre Dame in a huge showdown for each team set to start at 8:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. I also like making this a combination wager using a 31* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-2 mark using the money line for an incredible 94% win percentage since 1992. Play on a home team vs. the money line (TEMPLE) allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games against opponent after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is just 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points and 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt. Further, we see that ND has struggled against team's with strong defensive units like Temple has this season. ND is just 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing

50* graded play on Mississippi as they host Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at  as they take on the  action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. My rating system equates to wagers that can be placed. In other words if you wager $100 on my 25* graded plays, then wager no more than $200 on this play. If you wager a dime on the 25* plays than wager no more than a 50* play on this one. Use common sense and discipline. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Mississippi will win this game by at least 10 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. In the majority of my plays, the number 28 comes up a lot and essentially acts as a pivot point of sorts. In this case, I feel very confident that Mississippi will score 28 or more points. Note that in past games since 1992, Texas A&M is just 23-78 ATS (-62.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Further, there are other 'bad news' items hitting Texas A&M. They are a money burning 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games when they commit 2 turnovers since 1992;  10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards since 1992;  5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Now, again, the 28 points scored part comes up and is validated by the high probability that Ole Miss will score at least 28 points. They are a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. This last historical reference also under scores the present fundamental matchup I see that will dominate this game in favor of Mississippi. That is that Ole Miss will control the LOS on both sides of the ball. They will get the ground game going and then use play action to stretch the defense even further with vertical and 'double-move' routes. We have also seen Ole Miss controlling the ball for less than half the game, but that is not because of fundamental flaws. Further A&M is just 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in road games facing ball control teams posting 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992. In finally, A&M is 3-16 ATS (-14.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 since 1992; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game since 1992. An intangible is that Ole Miss lost in humiliating fashion to vastly inferior Memphis team. They got looking ahead to this conference showdown. I am very confident Ole Miss as a team will be extremely focused on executing each play run to perfection. Ole miss ranks just 71st in passing yards allowed, BUT they rank 17th in opponent yards per pass. They are excellent in vertical route coverage and also get enough pressure on the QB without having to bring the blitz. Take Mississippi for a 50* graded play. 

35* graded play on the Vanderbilt as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Vandy will win this game by at least 6 points. They are just a 1 point dog, but the betting flows are expected to be heavily on the side of Missouri as game time approaches. I would choose to wait and see if this line movement occurs and look to get +2 lines. Now, I am not saying we need the extra point to win this play, but it never hurts to give you what the market offers.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-36 mark for just 47% winners, BUT has made a whopping 54 units/unit wagered since 1992. The reason is that it has averaged a +280 dog play. Play on home underdogs vs. the money line (VANDERBILT) after scoring 14 points or less last game against opponent after a playing a game where 24 total points or less were scored. Here is a second system that has gone 37-16 for 70% winners and has made 30 units/unit wagered averaging a +124 dog play since 1992. Play against a road team vs. the money line (MISSOURI) after a playing a game where 24 total points or less were scored against opponent after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Missouri is just  10-25 against the money line (-30.9 Units) when they score 15 to 21 points; 2-8 against the money line (-13.8 Units) vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game. Two of the best SEC defenses face off in this matchup. I give the edge to Vandy noting they rank 6th in third down conversions allowed while Missouri ranks 76th. Further, Vandy ranks ninth in the nation with a 55.7% TOP percentage. Missouri is 109th at just 45% TOP. The Vandy offense will be far more successful in third down conversions and moving the chains than Missouri and that will be a dominant theme in what will be a field position first priority for Vandy. Take Vanderbilt. 

35* graded play on San Diego State as they host Utah State in NCAA action set to start at 10:30 PM ET.  SIM algorithms show a high probability that SDST will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making these dogs of greater than 3 points into combination wagers comprised of a 28* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 33-7 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2005.  Play against a road team (UTAH ST) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. 64% of the winning plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. SDST is a strong running team and uses the run to set up the pass and play action opportunities. They rank 18th in the nation averaging 46.7 running plays per game and 10th rush play percentage at 66.2%. UTST has been able to thwart the ground attack on their opponents to date, but I clearly see SDST getting the ground game going and simply wearing down the UTST defensive front over the course of the game. Also, note that when SDST does pass they are looking to vertical routes. They rank a decent 68th averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt. Take San Diego State.

35* graded play on Georgia as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  SIM algorithms show a high probability that Georgia will win this game by 17 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 83-37 ATS mark good for 69% winners  since 2010. Play on any team (GEORGIA) excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR against a poor rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR, in conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Missouri is just 5-29 ATS (-26.9 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play; 12-31 ATS (-22.1 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play; Georgia is a solid 25-7 ATS (+17.3 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points. Georgia is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. Georgia has a very strong offense that will be going up against a vastly improved Missouri defense. However, Missouri's offense is not good and will not be able to compete and match the offensive output of the Bulldogs. Missouri offense ranks 119th scoring just 15.2 PPG while Georgia's ranks 26th scoring 35 PPG. Georgia has had a very difficult schedule, but still ranks 35th in opponent yards allowed at 4.9, 37th allowing 361 yards per game, and 33rd in opponent rushing yards per catty at 3.6. Missouri has big struggles running the ball ranking 103rd gaining just 3.6 and will struggle even more against a defense that has already played Alabama. I think Georgia  will dominate both sides of the LOS and will score almost at will. Take Georgia. 

35* graded play on the Michigan Wolverines as they host Michigan State in a major BIG TEN matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Michigan will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 ATS mark good for 77% winners since 2005. Play on a home team (MICHIGAN) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. 52% of these plays covered the spread by 10 or more points and based on the SU record of the system the home team has a 47-4 winning record. The Michigan defense is very real and this year's edition of the MSU offense is not all that strong. The Spartans rank 58th in the nation in offensive yards per game. Wolverine defense ranks 1st in scoring defense at just 6.3 PPG and yards allowed at just 181 per game, and allowing only 2.9 yards per play. Michigan is a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games. Harbaugh is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half in all games he has coached. His presence was expected to bring back Michigan to a Big TEN powerhouse, but it is happened far faster than anyone thought possible. After three straight shutouts, it is quite clear that the team is Harbaugh's and that the players are all on the same page. Dominant winning only makes the team family chemistry that much stronger and that much more focused. Michigan is the play. 

35* graded play on Baylor as they take on West Virginia in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that Baylor will win this game by 27 or more points. Baylor is the top scoring offense in the nation at 63.8 PPG, yards per game at 710, points per play at 0.83, yards per play at 9.3, and third down conversions at 61%. WVU is a decent team , but I don't believe they have the strength to match Baylor's offense for an entire game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-15 for 76% winners since 1992. Play against underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (W VIRGINIA) after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. Here is a second system that has gone 23-4 ATS for 85% winners since 1992. Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BAYLOR) excellent offensive team gaining >=6.2 YPP against a team with an average defense allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP, after gaining 575 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 9.5 to 10 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they rush for 5 to 5.5 yards per attempt since 1992. Further, we see that WVU is just  2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons and head coach Briles is a near-perfect Briles is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 70 as the coach of Baylor. Take Baylor. 

35* graded play on Penn State as they host Indiana in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM algorithms show a high probability that PSU will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 57-20 ATS mark using the first half line and good for 74% winners since 2010. Play on favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (PENN ST) in conference games, returning 8+ offensive starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. I do believe this play based on the SIM is valid to include a 5* play using the first half line. Indiana has a strong ground game, but PSU linebacker play has been improving steadily each week. They won't shut Indiana down, but they will do enough to force Indiana into passing downs and third and long situations. The big part of this game is that PSU will be highly productive in the ground game and will gain at least 175 yards and average between 4.5 to 5.0 yards per rush. In past games, PSU is a solid 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt. PSU quarterback Hackenburg is likely to be a NFL top-10 pick, but he has not had the time to display is elite arm. This game will give him that opportunity facing a Hoosier defense that has allowed an average of 503 yards per game. PSU defense has allowed just 284 opponent yards and only 158 opponent rushing yards. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Hoosier coach Wilson is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games versus good rushing defenses allowing

35* graded play on Stanford as they take on Arizona in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Stanford will win this game by 13 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. At the college level some of the most important projections revolves around the number 28. Scoring 28 or yielding 28 often times leads to a direct correlation to an ATS cover. Arizona is just 16-44 ATS (-32.4 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points; 8-25 ATS (-19.5 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards; 4-25 ATS (-23.5 Units) when they allow 450 to 500 total yards; Stanford is a solid money making 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 34-9 ATS (+24.1 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards; 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 33-13 ATS (+18.7 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards;  21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 100-150 yards. Arizona is 3-1 as is Stanford. Arizona though is coming off a very humbling defeat to Conference powerhouse UCLA. In what was lined at pick-em ended with UCLA winning 56-30. Arizona completed just 10 of 28 pass attempts for only 115 yards and three interceptions. Stanford was upset by what is a much better Northwestern team than preseason previews indicated and has since won three straight in dominating fashion. Rushing yards has increased in each game this season. The last game saw them gain 325 yards on 48 attempts and I strongly believe they will gain 250+ in this matchup. Arizona will bring defenders into the box to stop the run and this will open up play action for high percentage completions. So, the Stanford passing game will be featured a bit more than usual to take advantage of what the Arizona defense sets. Take Stanford.

35* graded play on Baylor as they take on Texas Tech in Big 12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. This game has also set the all-time high - at least in my database - for the highest total ever posted in Vegas at 90 1/2 earlier this week. It has since come down a touch to 88 1/2. Baylor's coaches know they have major advantages on both sides of the ball. I believe their goal will not be to get into a shoot out with this high powered Tech offense and instead use their unstoppable ground attack to wear down the much smaller Tech DL over the course of the first half. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-6 mark good for 83% winners since 1992. Play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS TECH) in a game involving two excellent passing teams gaining >=8.3 PYA and after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This system is a very nice 5-1 ATS the last three seasons. Of the 34 plays made by the system, 53% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. Of the wimnning plays, 65% of them covered by 7+ points. Here is a second system that ahs gone 111-57 ATS for 66% winners since 1992.  Play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS TECH) excellent passing team with a completion pct of 62% or better, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This system is 3-0 ATS this season and of all plays qualified by the criteria 48% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Baylor is 24-4 ATS (+19.6 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards; 32-8 ATS (+23.2 Units) when they gain 550 or more total yards I see no reason that would prevent Baylor from attaining more than 300 rushing yards and more than 550 total offensive yards. Take Baylor. 

35* graded play on Georgia as they host Alabama in a huge SEC Conference showdown set to start at 3:30 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by at least 4 points. The public is on 76% of the tickets being written and it has pushed the line down to pick-em at the majority of books. Too much focus on the belief that Alabama just will lose their second game this early in this season. Yet, Georgia has an amazing offense that is highlighted by the media, but is still vastly underrated. More significantly, a win today would leave the Bulldogs with a much clearer path toward their first conference title in a decade, and a nearly certain spot in the College Football Playoff. Georgia has only one other ranked opponent after Saturday's game: No. 25 Florida. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-11 ATS mark good for 78% winners since 2005. Play on a home team (GEORGIA) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game, after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. Last 3 seasons this system has gone 10-2 ATS and of all plays made since 2005, 52% of them covered by 7+ points. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Alabama is just 12-37 ATS (-28.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points; 102-47 ATS (+50.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. The algorithms show that Georgia will out gain Alabama in rushing and passing and will have at least a 1.0 yard per play advantage. Also, Alabama is an imperfect  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. Last, check out this link to see the latest great IGA video. Not a reason to wager on this game, but still quite impressive and very well done. https://www.dawgnation.com/football/dawgnation/uga-releases-chilling-the-storm-hype-video-for-alabama-game. Take Georgia. 

35* graded play on Temple as they take on Charlotte in NCAAF action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  SIM shows a high probability that Temple will win this game by 24 or more points. Temple is coming off their BYE week and will be very well rested adn focused for this road tilt. They were heavy road favorites in their last game and needed a mircale finish to just win against UMASS. The minutemen are a pretty darn good squad though and trailed by just 1 point entering the fourth quarter to Notre Dame, before they went on a scoring spree and won going away. Temple will not be overlooking the opponent tonight that is playing in their first full season as an FBS team. They were gashed by Middle Tennessee and I believe Temple will do the same. Charlotte has a decent defense based on the flash stats, but there are several mighty big holes that Temple will be able to exploit. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 62-29 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2010. Play against any team (CHARLOTTE) poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) against a team with a good rushing defense (3 to 3.5 YPR). Further, you will see that Charlotte will struggle big in the passing game and may not even get more than 125 passing yards in this matchup. Yemple defense will dominate LOS and make it very difficult for Charlotte to score. Take Temple. 

35* graded play on Southern Mississippi as they take on Nebraska in NCAA action set to start at 12:00 PM ET. SIM shows a summary projection that SM will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Although the probabilities are low for an outright upset shocker, I encourage you, if available, to put down another 3* unit on the money line. Each season I have had 20+ dogs not only cover, but win outright. I never know when one of these huge dogs is going to shock the world, so it is imperative to maintain your wager discipline each week in order never to miss out on any ATS win or ML gain. SM comes into this game with 10 returning starters on offense including their QB. These teams have experience and chemistry, especially on the OL, that be a significant competitive advantage. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. SM is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt; 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when they gain 5.5 to 6 total yards per play. Further, we see that SM is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992. SM played hard against Miss State and covered in Week 1. When going up against weaker opponents the offense shined scoring 52 against South Alabama and 56 at Texas State. They have covered three straight. Nebraska is coming off a heart wrenching OT defeat to Miami where they came from behind by 3 scores in the 4th quarter and then only losing in OT. These types of herculian efforts that don't end up in a 'W' can create a playing 'hangover' in the next week - especially when facing a supposedly inferior foe. Take Southern Mississippi. 

35* graded play on Iowa State as they take on Toledo in NCAA gridiron action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  SIM shows a high probability that ISU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning straight up. Given this favorable upset projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 21* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line for 26* worth of risk. This combination maximizes the probabilities that the upset will occur.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 18-9 record for 67% winners and has made an incredible 35 units/unit wagered averaging a whopping +246 DOG play since 1992. Play on road underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (IOWA ST) team with a horrible scoring defense last season that  allowed 35 or more points/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Toledo is an imperfect  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 2 seasons. Take Iowa State. 

35* graded play on the Georgia as they host South Carolina in SEC Conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET.  SIM shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by more than 21 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-16 ATS mark good for 73% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (GEORGIA) that was excellent rushing team from last season averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The system under scores why I am on Georgia and it is simply because of the strong ground attack. Georgia's offensive line will wear down a much smaller SC defensive front over the course of the game. I expect Georgia to have well over 300 rushing yards and 250 passing yards on 70+ plays from scrimmage. They will run about twice as much as pass and I just don't anyway SC can contain this offense. SC is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 7.5 or more total yards per play; 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards; Georgia is a near-perfect  9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards since 1992; 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2.5 to 3 yards/play. Sc QB Conner Mitch injured his shoulder last game and is out indefinitely. He was the new starter QB this season to a unit retuning just 4 starters. Take the Bulldogs. 

25* graded play on the Louisville Cardinal as they host Clemson in NCAA Thursday Night action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. SIm shows a high probability that Louisville will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid opportunity to win the game and avoid starting the season at 0-3. Clemson is 2-0, but played Wofford and Appalachian State, which are teams hardly as strong as Louisville. Louisville lost to Auburn 31-24, but covered as 10 point dog. Last week they did not play well in a home loss to Houston installed as a 13 point favorite. They are not this bad a team and the home loss only makes me more confident that Louisville is going to come out play as a very desperate DOG. The large leep in strength of competitor for Clemson will be a problem as it is impossible to simulate the change of speed and strength from their first two opponents to that of Louisville. I like making this a combination wager as well comprised of a 19* play using the line and a 6* play using the money lie. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-15 mark good for 76% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEMSON) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. I do expect this to be a war and not looking for Louisville to catch Clemson sleeping. Although that would be nice. What is nice, is that in closely played games based on the stat lines, Louisville is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games when they are outgain their opponents by less than 50 yards. Take Louisville. 

I will have additional releases being issued this afternoon so be sure to check back. 25* graded play on Virginia as they host Notre Dame in NCAA Football action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that UVA will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a reasonable shot at pulling off a huge upset win. Last week the Irish defense was dominant over the Longhorns allowing 163 yards of offense and producing 11 3-and-out possessions. That may appear incredible, but that was against a Texas offense that I have ranked below 100th best in the nation. UVA returns five starters on offense, but they are going to be a much stiffer test for the Irish. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. ND is just  17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992; 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) when they rush for 100 to 150 yards since 1992. UVA is a perfect  9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. I really see a letdown here by the Irish  after the big game last week and is demonstrated by the fact that they are just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Take the Virginia Cavaliers. 

35* graded play on Colorado State as they take on Minnesota in NCAA gridiron action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that CSU will lose this game by less than 4 points and has a great opportunity to win the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 7-0 ATS mark the last 3 seasons and 12-1 mark fo the past five season and 24-4 ATS since 1992 good for 89% winners. 63% of the games covered the spread by 7 or more points. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COLORADO ST) excellent passing team from last season with a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Minnesota is a money burning  32-92 ATS (-69.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points; 7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when they allow 9 to 9.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992.