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College Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-20-14	Florida +14.5 v. Alabama	Top	21-42	Loss	-108	4 h 47 m	Show
25* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM EWT. The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. I also like adding a 2* play using the money line as I do believe that if Florida executes near perfection, they can win this game. Yet, don't think they need perfection to cover this generous spread. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 70-23 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2002. Play against home favorites (ALABAMA) in a game involving two mistake-free teams posting a
09-13-14	Arizona State v. Colorado +16	Top	38-24	Win	100	10 h 43 m	Show
10* graded play on Colorado as they host Arizona State in CFB action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Colorado will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. ASU is coming off a big win, at least on the scoreboard, to New Mexico. They are 2-0 on the season, but have yet to play any formidable opponent. Based on my opponent PR ratings, ASU has one of the weakest first two games in the nation. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 146-71 ATS mark for 67.2% winners since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (COLORADO) in conference games and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Here is one of the best CFB systems I have in the database and has gone 24-10 for 71% winners making 38 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a +200 DOG line and is truly what makes this system one that you can tack on your own to make even more money for seasons to come. Play against a road team using the money line (ARIZONA ST) that is a good team from last season (60% to 80% in percentage) playing a team who had a losing record last year and with 4 or fewer defensive starters returning and with the current game taking place in the first month of the season. I suggest playing this 10* Titan in the same combination as outlined for the UTSA game above. Take the Colorado Buffalos.
09-13-14	Texas-San Antonio +13.5 v. Oklahoma State	Top	13-43	Loss	-110	7 h 43 m	Show
10* graded play on Texas - San Antonio as they take on Oklahoma State in CFB action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UTSA will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. I have played UTSA in their previous 2 games with great success as they upset Houston 27-7 as an 8 point dog and then easily covered in Week2 against Arizona as a 7 1/2 point dog. This will certainly be their stiffest test, but they have played against solid opponents in the first two weeks. They are a very good and vastly under rated team with excellent coaching. I am most impressed with the balanced offensive attack and I fully expect that unit to do very well tonight. The SIm confirms this belief showing that UTSA will gain between 150 to 200 rushing yards and between 350 and 400 total yards. In these situations, they have posted a perfect 6-0 ATS mark. I also like making this a combination wager using an 8* amount on the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line for a total risk of 10.5* units. Take Texas-San Antonio.
09-13-14	Army +28 v. Stanford	Top	0-35	Loss	-105	5 h 49 m	Show
10* graded play on Army as they take on Stanford in CFB action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Army will lose this game by fewer than 25 points. Stanford is coming off a very disappointing loss to USC last week having blown 7 red zone scoring opportunities. I had USC as my PAC-12 Game of the Year and feel quite fortunate to come away with that victory. I fully expect the Cardinal to be completely flat against an inferior foe in Army. That type of loss last week is worse than one losing in OT and it sticks with a team for a long while. Army has the ground attack and offensive that can easily shorten this game and make it far more competitive then the 28 point line currently shown at majority of books. What I also like too is that Army returns 9 starters on offense including the QB and that experience will serve them very well in this matchup. Cardinal just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) off an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite since 1992; 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite since 1992; 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after a playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored since 1992. Take Army.
09-13-14	East Carolina +9.5 v. Virginia Tech	Top	28-21	Win	100	1 h 11 m	Show
25* graded play on East Carolina as they take on V-Tech in CFB action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that East Carolina will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a solid shot at upsetting the Hokies. Given this favorable projection, I recommend making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. I do see this game as a letdown situation for the Hokies, who are coming off one of their best upset victories in years last week. ECU is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons; 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games off a road loss since 1992. Supporting this Titan release is a system that has gone 50-17 for 75% winners and has made 46 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play on a road team vs. the money line (E CAROLINA) that is an excellent offensive team (>=440 YPG) and now facing a good offensive team gaining between 390 to 440 YPG and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. The Pirates put forth a respectable effort in their 33-23 loss to South Carolina, as they had a 453-441 yardage edge. QB Shane Carden was 32-of-46 for 321 yards, but had a couple of costly interceptions. I see huge matchup advantages for Carden to exploit on the perimeter getting the ball out quickly with three step drops and with the receivers getting the ball in space to make plays. The dominant key to this game is that I fully expect ECU to have a massive yards after the catch advantage leading them to a chance to win in the fourth quarter. Take the Pirates.
09-12-14	Baylor v. Buffalo +36	Top	63-21	Loss	-115	9 h 60 m	Show
10* graded play on Buffalo as they host Baylor in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by fewer than 32 points. This is simply just too many points and I live Buffalo to cover this generous number tonight. Baylor knows they are a much better team and can easily win this game. It is also a short week in preparation and the Bears are coming off two dominating performances in their new stadium outscoring their opponents a combined 115-6. However, the Bears have some significant injuries and 'aches' within their starting units. QB Petty has been upgraded to probable, but that certainly does not imply he will play all four quarters. Same can be said of WR Goodley nursing a leg injury. There are four WR and 1 backup RB that will not see action tonight. The last thing the 8th ranked team needs is to have more injuries in a game that can be won with their second units. That is what I fully expect tonight and the second and third units of Baylor will at least give Buffalo a chance to move the ball, score points, and be more competitive. Baylor WR KD Cannon will be playing and he is coming off the second best WR yardage total in school history and did not even play the second half. He scored three TD on 50, 81. and 42 yards in the first quarter. Given his elite speed, you can bet that Buffalo will bracket him in a base cover-2 preventing him from getting behind the safeties. This scheme at least contains quick scores for the most part. Again, he is a starter that has burst on the national stage at the age of just 18 years. So, with the strong belief that Baylor will rest many of their starters once a significant lead is attained gives Buffalo a solid shot at staying with the generous number. Take Buffalo.
09-11-14	Houston +19 v. BYU	Top	25-33	Win	100	34 h 5 m	Show
10* graded play on Houston as they take on BYU in CFB action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Houston will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. BYU is off to an impressive 2-0 start and have covered both contests very easily. Houston has gone 1-1, but failed to cover in either game. This is going to be a much better test for BYU than their previous two opponents. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (BYU) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. 59% of these games covered the spread by 7+ points and this under scores by strong belief that this will be a single digit game. BYU has had two impressive road wins, BUT they are just 7-26 ATS (-21.6 Units) after a 2 game road trip since 1992 and 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off 2 consecutive road wins since 1992. Houston was dominated by Texas - San Antonio in Week1 (a big win as a Top rated Titan release), but don't under estimate the fact they return 8 starters on offense and the quarterback and also return 9 defensive starters. No doubt BYU will look to run the ball and I expect 50 rushing attempts in this game. Houston will be prepared for this scheme and will be able to contain it. I like Houston being able to establish their ground game just enough so play action pass will be very effective. Take Houston.
09-06-14	USC +3 v. Stanford	Top	13-10	Win	100	4 h 24 m	Show
25* graded play on the Southern California Trojans as they take on Stanford in a huge Pac-12 matchup and one that will have major conference ramifications. Stanford has the nation's longest home winning streak at 18 games. All streaks do end, and I completely believe SC will dominate this game from start to finish. The simulator shows a high probability that SC will win this game. With the line at +3, the ML does not afford an solid investment option. Should the line go to 3 1/2, which is not expected, the ML would then be more attractive. However, I will simply play this as a 25* graded amount using the line only. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-23 ATS mark for 71% winners since 2003. Play against a home team (STANFORD that was a poor passing defense from last season allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse and with 5 offensive starters returning and with the current game taking place in the first month of the season. 36 of the 55 winning plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match the projections produced by the SIM. SC is a solid 22-8 against the money line (+16.3 Units) in road games when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992; 17-5 against the money line (+10.8 Units) when they gain 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 15-5 against the money line (+10.1 Units) when they rush for 2.5 to 3 yards per attempt since 1992; 42-10 against the money line (+29.9 Units) when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992. No doubt, the SC offense will put a lot of pressure on the Stanford defense, especially in the backend. Another matchup I see as a HUGE advantage for SC is DE Leonard Williams against Stanford LT Andrus Peat. Williams is huge, fast, and very quick for his size at 6-5 300 lbs. Peat is 6-7 and 312 lbs and has excellent technique and will certainly be playing on Sundays in the NFL. Yet, Williams has better technique and can gain leverage with his strong legs and get under Peat to move him laterally. This will be a matchup I will be watching very closely and one that I see Williams winning. Take USC.
09-06-14	Oklahoma v. Tulsa +25	Top	52-7	Loss	-110	3 h 34 m	Show
10* graded play on Tulsa as they host Oklahoma in CFB action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tulsa will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. This is just too many points. Tulsa returns 10 starters on defense featuring SS Mudoch, who had 133 tackles last season and DE Alexander, who had 6.5 sacks last season. I strongly believe this unit will be up to the challenge that the Sooners offense will bring to the game. Sooners are re-tolling on offense with just 5 starters returning. Sooners are just 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. Oklahoma has been doing some talking this week in the media outlets clearly stating that they believe they have the best front seven in the nation. Perhaps they do, BUT they will be facing a vastly under rated QB in Dane Evans, who has a very quick 'Peyton Manning' release. Oklahoma looks to stop the run first and then get pressure on the QB. Yet, in this matchup, there won't be time for them to get on the QB and Evans is extremely accurate getting balls to receivers in space. Evans sees the field very well and his quick release will frustrate the Sooner pass rushers. Take Tulsa.
09-06-14	Kansas State v. Iowa State +12.5	Top	32-28	Win	100	3 h 33 m	Show
10* graded play on the Iowa State as they host Kansas State in CFB action set to start at 12:00 Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Iowa State will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. If you can get a Money Line for this game, then add a 1.5* amount to the 10* unit line play. I have already nailed Texas A&M and Texas- San Antonio in their respective huge upset wins in Week 1. So, don't be surprised if Iowa State pulls of the same result today. ISU returns 10 starters including the QB on offense and this is a big time advantage for them facing a defensive unit that returns just 5 starters. Team chemistry, especially along an OL, is very critical in the first four weeks of the CFB season. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-12 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (IOWA ST) after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Of the plays made 51% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. So, look for ISU to make this a very close game throughout and a strong opportunity to win the game in the 4th quarter. Take Iowa State.
09-04-14	Arizona v. Texas-San Antonio +7	Top	26-23	Win	100	8 h 21 m	Show
10* graded play on Texas-San Antonio as they host Arizona in College Football action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UTSA will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at upsetting a major PAC-12 foe. Given this favorable projection, I suggest making this a combination wager using an 8* amount on the line and a 2.5* play using the money line for a total of 10.5* worth of risk. This combination maximizes the risk/reward profile produced by the SIM projections. I had UTSA last week in their huge 27-7 win at Houston where they were installed as 8 point dogs. That was certainly no fluke as my research report showed and I expect another great effort by this team Thursday night. The defense held Houston to just 26 yards rushing on 23 carries and forced 6 turnovers. They are a dominant run offensive scheme and that wore down the Houston defensive front very quickly. I fully expect that pounding type of game to have the same impact on the ARZ defense. The SIM shows that UTSA will rush for at least 150 yards. In past games where they have rushed for 150 to 200 rushing yards they are a perfect 7-0 ATS over the past three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-6 ATS mark for 83.3% winners since 2003. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UTSA) and is a team that had a winning record last season and now facing a non-conference foe. Take UTSA.
09-01-14	Miami (Florida) +3.5 v. Louisville	Top	13-31	Loss	-110	12 h 43 m	Show
10* graded play on the Miami Hurricanes as they take on the Louisville Cardinal in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the DOG projections, I suggest playing this Titan release as a combination wager consisting of a 7* play using the line and a 3.5* amount using the Money Line for a total risk of 10.5* units. The money line is at +150 and a 3.5* wager would return 4.5 units in profits, which combined with the 7* line win adds an additional 15% in total profits earned for the play. Although, this does not seem that significant on the surface, over the course of the season it will certainly add up to a very significant result. Just this past week I had Texas A&M in a monster upset of South Carolina and Texas-San Antonio in another big time upset win with both returning very nice additions by adding the Money Line combination wager to the play. The following game situations match the SIM projections for this game. Miami is a solid money making 23-10 against the money line (+14.8 Units) in road games when they gain 200 to 250 net passing yards since 1992; 20-10 against the money line (+10.6 Units) when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt since 1992; Louisville is just 8-10 against the money line (-18.6 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 9-9 against the money line (-27.8 Units) when they gain 350 to 400 net passing yards since 1992. The point is that the records may not produce high percentage results, but you and I must always being looking at units won/lost for meaningful insight to game situations. The Hurricanes will dominate the LOS with a pounding ground attack led by Duke Johnson, who you may remember was the starting back in 2013 and had the Hurricanes off to a 7-0 start before season ending injury sidelined him. He had well over 900 rushing yards in 6 games at that point. This ground attack is eactly what any team needs when starting a true freshman and the Hurricanes have a great one under center in Brad Kaaya. Take the Hurricanes.
08-30-14	Boston College v. UMass +17.5	Top	30-7	Loss	-110	4 h 2 m	Show
10* graded play on Massachusetts as they take on Boston College in NCAAF action set to start at 3:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BC will lose this game by fewer than 15 points. BC lost it's three best offensive players from last year's 7-6 bowl season. In fact they return just 3 starters offense and no player had more than 15 catches last season. They have ahd several key additions through transfers, but team chemistry, especially on the offensive line is a critical factor in the first four weeks of the season. Further, BC returns 6 starters on defense, so here again, execution will be inconsistent during games in the early part of the season. UMASS had a horrid season and certainly will look to turn things around. One of the most important decision made was to go to a 3-4 defensive alignment. Given their personnel, this is the right decision and will pay off big for them during the season. This alignment will also let their stud LB Andrey, who had 111 tackles last season, to be an even greater disruptive force. Take UMASS.
08-29-14	Texas-San Antonio +11.5 v. Houston	Top	27-7	Win	100	12 h 45 m	Show
10* graded play on Texas San Antonio as they take on Houston in CFB action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TSA will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. This game mirrors my winning play last night with Texas A&M and like the A&M wager I encourage you to add no greater than 1.5* amount using the money line to the 10* wage amount on the line. UTSA's entire O-Line returns to its run-oriented offense propelled by RB David Glasco II (496 rush yds, 5.2 YPC, 5 TD). WR Kam Jones (345 rec yds, 302 rush yds, 6 total TD) is the No. 1 wideout for new QB Tucker Carter (190 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT), who replaces Eric Soza. The Roadrunners' 4-2-5 defense is strong throughout with DE Robert Singletary (5 sacks), LB Drew Douglas (70 tackles), S Triston Wade (94 tackles) and CB Bennett Okotcha (10 PD). Of the units, TSA returns 10 starters each on offense and defense. This playing experience is a significant factor in matchups during the first four weeks of the season. The Sim projects that TSA will gain between 150 to 200 rushing yards and 350 to 400 total offensive yards. In past games, TSA is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the past three season in each situation mentioned. Take Texas-San Antonio.
08-28-14	Texas A&M +10.5 v. South Carolina	Top	52-28	Win	100	9 h 46 m	Show
10* graded play on the Texas A&M Aggies as they take on the South Carolina Gamecocks in inter-conference action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that A&M will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. If you have access to a money line I would recommend no more than a 1.5* amount to exploit the potential big time upset. Both teams return 14 starts combined and both have lost key play makers from last year's season. South Carolina returns eight starters on offense, but has a new quarterback under center. Their offense will be featuring scat back Mike Davis, who emerged last season as fantastic playmaker. However, the A&M defense returns 9 starters from last year's unit and will be vastly better this season. They have the experience and discipline not to get caught out of position with poor angles of attack in containing Davis. Forcing Thompson to win the game with his arm is the recipe for A&M to make this a single digit game throughout. Of note too is that Davis is listed as probable for tonight's game. He is enduring a rib injury and that is one that is quite painful on any type of hit at this level of football. SIM projects that A&M will score 28 points. In past games where the Gamecocks have allowed 28 points, they are a money burning 0-5 ATS over the past three seasons and 18-62 ATS since 1992. When they allow 31 to 41 points, they are an even worse 0-2 ATS over the past three seasons and 4-17 ATS since 1992. Take the Aggies.
01-06-14	Auburn v. Florida State -9	Top	31-34	Loss	-125	8 h 3 m	Show
10* graded play on Florida State as they take on Auburn in the BCS Championship Game set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?58-20 mark for 75% winners since 2003. Play against any team (AUBURN) after allowing 37 points or more last game and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 40-13 for 76% winners since 2003. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA ST) that is an excellent defensive team allowing <=16 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 to 28 PPG and after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. I went on record in Week 4 of the regular season that FSU was the pick to win the BCS Championship it was solely because of the incredible defense that I saw forming - not because I thought they have a juggernaut offense led by a Heisman trophy winner. However, the entire team has come together in a rather historical manner and I do not see Auburn having strong success against the FSU defense. Auburn is essentially a one dimensional team with a spread 'read' type of ground attack. Auburn has been very successful against a ton of SEC teams, but they have not faced the speed, quickness, depth, and athleticism that the FSU defense brings to this matchup. Auburn will get yards on the ground, but it will not be enough to stay with the FSU offense. At some point, Auburn will fall behind by 2 scores and be forced to throw the ball more than their game plan calls for. This game will be played on grass and this is the surface where FSU has gone 10-1 ATS this season; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a cover as a double digit favorite this season. Fisher is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 7 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach at FSU. At th eend of the day, I simply see FSU with more talent and ones that will make more significant plays than Auburn. Take FSU.
01-03-14	Clemson +3 v. Ohio State	Top	40-35	Win	100	5 h 44 m	Show
10* graded play on the Clemson Tigers as they take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Orange Bowl set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Clemson will win this game. I normally like using a combination bet when playing a 10* DOG. However, I have only seen a few +125 and I normally require +135 to make a combination wager. The current line is +3 and the line has more of a chance to drop back to 2 1/2 at this point in the afternoon. So, simply play this game as a straight 10* getting the line you are given. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?49-19 record for 72% winners making 36 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (OHIO ST) excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RYPG and is now facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 RYPG and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This system has gone 5-1 making 4.6 units/unit wagered. The average play has been a plus 117 DOG, which nearly matches the line for this game. SIM projects that Clemson will score 28 or more points. In past games, Clemson is 11-1 against the money line (+10.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. They are also a resounding 8-1 against the money line (+8.2 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. Clemson may have been beaten badly by FSU, but they a very quick defense that Ohio State has not seen this season. Ohio State will move the ball, but the Clemson defense will hold up throughout the game. Moreover, I definitely see Clemson having a big night on offense and has the ground attack that can wear down the OSU defensive front. Clemson has had big vertical plays on first down situations after attaining the first down on the ground. Take Clemson.
01-01-14	Iowa +8 v. LSU	Top	14-21	Win	100	24 h 46 m	Show
10* graded play on the Iowa Hawkeyes as they take on the LSU Tigers in the Outback Bowl set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Iowa will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the favorable projections and like my three previous Games of the Year winners, I encourage you to make a combination bet. The ROI favors placing a 9* play on Iowa and a 2.5* play on Iowa using the money line. This is obviously more than the 10* graded amount, but using these combination plays over the course of a full season adds a significant amount to my bottom line. Iowa is a solid 35-15 ATS (+18.5 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game since 1992; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game since 1992; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992. Ferentz is a solid 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games; 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game; Miles is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after a 2 game home stand as the coach of LSU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-27 mark for just 49% winners, but has made a whopping 55 units/unit wagered since 1992. This system is one of the most powerful money makers I know and has averaged an incredible +305 DOG play. SIM projects that Iowa will gain between 3.5 and 4.0 rushing yards per attempt. In past games, Iowa is a resounding 25-14 against the money line (+14.3 Units) when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt since 1992. Adding to this is the fact that Iowa is a near-perfect 7-2 against the money line (+9.0 Units) as a neutral field underdog of +220 or less using the money line since 1992. There is no doubt the SEC is a monumentally more difficult conference than the Big Ten. However, based on these teams schedules, Iowa has a modestly more difficult schedule than LSU so statistical comparisons are much more valid in this matchup. The Iowa defense will contain the LSU offense. Iowa ranks 7th in the nation allowing 4.6 yards-per-play, 11th allowing 19.2 PPG, 8th allowing 312 yards-per-game, ninth allowing 6.0 yards-per-pass attempt. I love the matchups that Iowa has on defense and they do have the team speed to make it very difficult for LSU to move the chains and produce time consuming scoring drives. In sum, the Iowa offense is a power running type and will wear down the LSU defensive front. LSU will need at least one safety for run stop purposes and this then opens up play action to exploit man coverage and the best matchup on the field. Take Iowa.
12-31-13	Boston College +7.5 v. Arizona	Top	19-42	Loss	-115	3 h 51 m	Show
10* graded play on the Boston College as they take on Arizona in the ADOCARE Bowl set to start at 12:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BC will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. I am goig to add just a 2* piece using the money line in addition to the 120* amount using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?47-52 ,ark for just 48% winners, but has made 47 units/unit wagered since 2007. The average play has been a plus 211 dog. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (BOSTON COLLEGE) after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. This is a very powerful system and one that you should write down and store for action next season. This system has gone 8013, BUT has made 2.6 units in profits this season. One of the dominant themes of my 19 years of sports wagering has been leaning on dogs that my research show can cover easily and then have a great shot at winning the game. The majority of plays over this successful season in CFB and NFL have been based mainly on dogs. In fact, my NFC GOY winner +& Minnesota in Week 15, AFC GO+Y winner Colts in Week 16, and NFL GOY winner SF in Week 17 were all dogs that won the game. Now, this is not a game where I would say Game of the Year status, but it is a 10* graded Titan by the SIM. The SIM projects that BC will gain between 4.5 and 5.0 yards/rush and will gain between 5.5 and 6.0 yards/play. In past games, BC is a solid 10-3 against the money line (+8.2 Units) in road games when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt since 1992; Arizona is just 8-17 against the money line (-18.2 Units) when they allow 5.5 to 6 total yards per play since 1992. Moreover, BC is a solid 16-5 against the money line (+26.2 Units) after a loss by 6 or less points since 1992. Take Boston College.
12-30-13	Texas +14.5 v. Oregon	Top	7-30	Loss	-105	5 h 18 m	Show
10* graded play on Texas as they take on Oregon in the Valero Alamo Bowl set to start at 6:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I also have a 5* play 'UNDER' the posted total in this Bowl Game. If you want to step up the wager in case of a major upset, which I do think can happen, I would suggest only a 1.5* amount using the ML with Texas and the 'Under'. Both programs had high aspirations than this Bowl, but it is an opportunity for the Texas program to make changes that will benefit the program for years to come. It took a real man, in Mack Brown, to step down knowing he was under contract through 2020 at $5.0 million per year. He is a great coach, but sometimes changes is a very good thing. he will remain as a consultant to Powers. Oregon has had a very disappointing season and I did have winning plays against them in their two losses. When teams are strong winning streaks and then suddenly are brought down to earth, the entire team questions whether they were really as good as the polls suggested. Texas has the Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year in Jackson Jeffcoat, who had 12 sacks and 21 tackles for losses. He can dominate this game and disrupt the flow of the Oregon offense. Texas did get gutted in several games this season, but I strongly believe they will play a very strong game on the defensive side of the ball. Even more important is the fact that Texas can pound the ball between the tackles and that has been the universal truth in defeating the Ducks. HC Brown is a solid 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of Texas; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. Texas is on a very nice 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons. Take the Longhorns for a 10* play, the 'UNDER" for a 5* play, and a 1.5* optional parlay using Texas on the ML and the 'UNDER'.
12-27-13	Washington v. BYU +4	Top	31-16	Loss	-106	7 h 26 m	Show
10* graded play on BYU as they take on Washington in the Fight Hunger Bowl set to start at 9:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game. I like using dogs like this in a combination bet utilizing the line and money line to our advantage. In this game, the money line is getting inflated due to the public exuberance of Washington. I am seeing ML at +170 at many books right now. So, I will be playing this as an 8.5* amount using the line and then adding a 2.5* amount using the money line for an 11* Total amount. I am essentially adding 10* risk to the 10* play, but getting paid pack 70% on that added risk. It's even higher if you calculate the ROI on a base of the 8.5* play. BYU HC Mendenhall is one of the best preparers in the nation and his records reflect this work. He is a solid 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing against a good team posting a win percentage between 60% to 75% as the coach of BYU; 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games when facing solid passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. BYU is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-19 mark for 72% winners and has made 34.4 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (WASHINGTON) that are excellent rushing teams gaining >=230 RYPG and is now facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 RYPG and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This system has gone 4-1 making 3.6 units this season and 13-5 making 10 units the past three seasons. I really like the BYU defensive matchup against Washington. They rank 20th in the nation allowing 22.1 PPG, 12th posting a 0.276 points-per-play allowed ratio, 35th allowing 3.8 RYPC, and 19th allowing 6.4 PYPA. Take BYU.
12-27-13	Syracuse +4 v. Minnesota	Top	21-17	Win	100	5 h 39 m	Show
10* graded play on Syracuse as they take on Minnesota in the Texas Bowl set to start at 6:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Syracuse will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection I like using a combination bet placing an 8* amount using the line and a 3* amount using the money line for an 11* amount play. The respective ground attacks will determine the winner of this game. The SIM shows that Syracuse will gain between 150 and 200 rushing yards and Minnesota will be averaging 4.0 to 4.5 yards-per-rush. Both teams have solid rushing attacks, but Syracuse will have a greater yards-per-carry and have a vastly better passing attack than Minnesota. What I see as a dominant theme will be when Syracuse uses play action where receivers, especially on the perimeter, will be in man coverage. Minnesota's defense will be forced to respect the pass and this will spread the field opening up larger gaps for the ground attack. In past games, Syracuse is a solid 34-12 against the money line (+28.5 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards since 1992. Minnesota is just 8-22 against the money line (-31.1 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. Minnesota struggled offensively in the first-half of their 14-3 loss at Michigan State. You can bet that the Syracuse staff has been studying that game film extensively and will utilize every scheme they can with their personnel that MSU used to completely dominate Minnesota's ground attack. HC Kill is just 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game in all games he has coached since 1992. Take Syracuse.
12-26-13	Utah State +1 v. Northern Illinois	Top	21-14	Win	100	8 h 32 m	Show
10* graded play on Utah State as they take on Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl set to start at 9:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Utah State (US) will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-8 record and has made 20 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (N ILLINOIS) and is an excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RYPG and is now facing an average rushing team gaining between 140 and 190 RYPG, and after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in three straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 42-19 for 69% winners since 2002 and has made 26 units/unit wagered. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (UTAH ST) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games and in a non-conference tilt. Utah State played a vastly more difficult schedule than NI has this season. That stuffer competition is a huge advantage for Utah State and a large negative one for NI. They are led by Heisman Trophy finalist Jordan Lynch, but he alone will not be enough to overcome the stout Utah State defense. Further, NI lost to Bowling Green in the MAC conference Championship Game December 6. Losses of this magnitude have highly negative impacts on teams that were on long and extended winning streaks, especially losses that end BCS Bowl hopes. The US defense ranks 8th in the nation allowing 18.2 PPG, 18th allowing 348 offensive yards, 7th posting a 0.237 points-per-play ratio, third allowing just 2.8 rushing yards per attempt, and 21st allowing 54% completions. NI has simply not faced a tougher opponent all season that what they will see from US in the form of team speed, athleticism, and power. Take Utah State.
12-26-13	Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green -6	Top	30-27	Loss	-115	4 h 39 m	Show
10* graded play on Bowling Green as they take on Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl set to start at 6:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BG will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?85-38 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2008. Play against any team (PITTSBURGH) after allowing 37 points or more last game and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points. BG hammered NI in the MAC Championship game, which was one of my 10* Titan winners. They are a team that is as strong as they showed in the game and come into this bowl game with tons of confidence and motivation to win. SIM shows they will score 28+ points, will gain between 9.0 and 9.5 net passing yards per attempt; and will rush for 150 to 200 yards. In past games, Pitt is just 0-4 ATS this season and 1-12 ATS the past three seasons when allowing 28+ points; BG is 6-1 ATS this season and 9-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining 9.0 to 9.5 net passing yards per attempt; 8-1 ATS and 15-1 ATS the last three seasons when scoring 28+ points; 4-0 ATS this season and 6-0 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 150 and 200 rushing yards. Take Bowling Green
12-24-13	Oregon State v. Boise State +3.5	Top	38-23	Loss	-105	8 h 17 m	Show
10* graded play on Boise State as they take on Oregon State in the Hawaii Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BS will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning this bowl game. Given this favorable projection, I would recommend a combination bet using an 8* amount on the line and a 2.5* amount using the Money Line ONLY if you get at least +135 on the money line. This may require a move to 3 1/2 on the line, which is quite possible given today's steady flow of bets by the public on ISU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a? 45-19 mark for 70.3% winners and has made 28 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BOISE ST) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. I think the biggest factor in this game is the lack of confidence the OSU team must have entering this game. They have lost five straight games after going 6-1 to start the season. They played very well against Oregon installed as 24 point dog sand losing by just one. But again, this is another heart breaking loss and I am just not sure how much is left in the tank. This will be fast paced style of game which also leads to an increased amount of turnovers. The SIM projects that OSU will have at least three turnovers; that BS will win the turnover battle. In past games, BS is a solid 20-1 against the money line (+19.5 Units) when their defense forces 3 turnovers since 1992; 2-16 against the money line (-15.9 Units) in road games when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents since 1992. There is another projection calling for BSU to score 28+ points. OSU is just 17-70 against the money line (-65.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Take Boise State. Most importantly, I want to wish ALL of you a Blessed and Merry Christmas.
12-21-13	USC -6 v. Fresno State	Top	45-20	Win	100	5 h 34 m	Show
10* graded play on University of Southern California as they take on Fresno State in the Las Vegas Bowl set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 8 or more points. FSU lost just one game this season, but by comparison played a vastly inferior schedule to teams in the PAC-12. QB Carr had a n excellent season throwing for a nation-best 406 passing yards, 48 TD and just 7 INT. USC has the defensive personnel to contain this aerial assault. The opposite will be true about the FSU defense NOT containing the USC offense. SIM projects that USC will score between 35 and 41 points and will gain at least 450 offensive yards. In past games, USC is 2-0 ATS this season and 5-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 450 and 500 offensive yards. FSU is just 0-2 ATS this season, 2-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 9-24 ATS since 1992 when allowing an opponent to score between 35 and 41 points. Speed will be the evident and most dominant force from the Trojans, especially on defense. I had mentioned the vast difference in SOS between these two teams. FSU has never faced a team with the speed, athleticism, and physicality that USC will bring to this game. Nor can FSU simulate that speed in practice sessions and I strongly believe that it will overwhelming to FSU and will be most evident on their OL attempting to block USC in b.itz pack situations. We are all fully aware of the coaching 'situations' at USC. They are all unfortunate, but now interim HC Clay Helton will have this team focused and looking to play a very strong game. Take the USC Trojans.
12-14-13	Army +13 v. Navy	Top	7-34	Loss	-110	6 h 41 m	Show
10* graded play on the Army Cadets as they take on the Navy Midshipmen in the annual rivalry competing for the Commander-In-Chief trophy. I am looking for the cover in this matchup and strongly believe this is just too many points to be giving Army, who desperately wants to erase the 11-year Navy domination. The simulator shows a high probability that Army will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. There are several coaching situational trends that support a play on Army. HC Ellerson is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. HC Niumatalolo is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game; 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 44-15 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1992. Play on any team (ARMY) that is an excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR and is now facing a team with a struggling rushing defense allowing between 4.3 and 4.8 YPR, and after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. No secret, Army runs the ball more than 80% of all plays. They rank first in the nation averaging 61 rushing plays per game and first averaging 329 rushing yards per game. Navy ranks 85th allowing 192 rushing yards per game. Navy runs the ball a ton too, ranking second with 59 rushing plays per game and third averaging 319 rushing yards per game. Navy has a very poor secondary and San Jose State ripped them up for 440 passing yards on 42-for56 passing. I'm not saying for a minute that Army will suddenly becoming a spread passing offense. I am stating that there will be opportunities to throw the ball off the 'read' fakes essentially play action. Army has shown this tendency in their recent four game stretch. In their last game they threw 21 times and had their passing yards of the season with 152. I strongly believe that Army will throw the ball just enough to force Navy to respect it and this in turn will open up larger alleys for the Army RB to dart through. Take Army.
12-07-13	Stanford v. Arizona State -3.5	Top	38-14	Loss	-104	7 h 59 m	Show
10* graded play on Arizona State as they take on Stanford in the PAC-12 Championship set to start at 7:45 PM ET in Tempe Arizona. The simulator shows a high probability that ASU will win this game by 6 or more points. One of the key matchups in this game is the veteran ASU defensive front going up against Stanford RB Gaffney. I strongly believe that the ASU defense will dominate the Stanford OL and contain Gaffney's play making abilities. Another matchup and arguably the most dominant one is the ASU passing attack against the Stanford secondary. ASU ranks 7th in scoring offense at 42 PPG and 26th averaging 278 passing yards per game. The Cardinal secondary has allowed 254 passing yards per game ranking them 93rd in the nation. Sun Devil Stadium is a graveyard for many teams including the elite ones. ASU is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games when facing solid teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992; 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992; HC Graham is a near-perfect 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games versus solid rushing defenses allowing <=120 rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Take Arizona State.
12-07-13	Texas +16.5 v. Baylor	Top	10-30	Loss	-114	4 h 10 m	Show
10* graded play on Texas as they take on Baylor in BIG 12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. There is a ton of pressure squarely on the Baylor football team from all of the media hype about the opportunity to win a conference championship for the first time since 1990 and to win their final home game at their 63-year old Floyd Cast Stadium. Texas also has a shot at a BCS bid with an upset win in this game. I seriously doubt if either coach will allow their team to be watching the scoreboard for the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State showdown. Both teams need Oklahoma to win. That game starts at Noon and will nearing or will already be completed by this game time. The fans will know and that will obviously then be known by the teams. In either outcome, it will put even more pressure on Baylor and is only adding modestly to a mountain of Baylor high expectations. Baylor has the top scoring offense in the nation and is challenging the all-time records set by Army in 1944. Scoring differential is one record that the 1944 Army team will concede to the FSU Seminoles. Baylor defense has allowed 24.1 PPG ranking 36th in the nation and I positively love the Texas matchups. The Texas defense is vastly better than during the first four games where in one of those games they allowed a horrid 550 rushing yards to BYU. Baylor was hammered by Oklahoma State two weeks ago and barely got by TCU, which was one of my Top Rated 108 winners. The matchups favor a line closer to Baylor being favored by 8 points and what is not being considered is how physically and psychologically damaging the OSU loss was on this team. Texas I splaying their best football right now and are a solid 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992. Take Texas.
12-07-13	Oklahoma +10.5 v. Oklahoma State	Top	33-24	Win	100	2 h 47 m	Show
10* graded play on the Oklahoma Sooners as they take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in BIG 12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I like playing this as 10* play using the line and adding a 1* amount using the ML - just in case the apparently improbable upset occurs. A Cowboys win in Stillwater would clinch a share of the conference title along with the Baylor-Texas winner and send them to a Bowl Championship Series game for the second time in three years. But as Lee Corso loves say, 'not so fast'. In media interviews this week, the Oklahoma players were unanimous and sometimes appeared offended when asked if they enjoyed the role of spoiler in the Bedlam matchup. This is far more about bragging rights then causing OSU to miss out on a BCS game. The key to this matchup is that I strongly believe that the Sooner defense will contain the Cowboy offense and it will start with run stops. Cowboys offense ranks a dismal 70th in the nation converting just 39% of their third down conversions this season. Sooner defense ranks 15th allowing opponents to convert 34% of their third down situations. Stopping the Cowboys on first down sets up the Sooners then to get three-and-outs and get off the field. I also like the Sooners ground attack and here again, this allows for success on first downs and sets up play action to play makers on the perimeter in man coverages. Supporting the play is a MONEY LINE system that has gone 23-16 and has made a whopping 37 units/unit wagered averaging a +230 dog play. Play against a home team using the money line (OKLAHOMA ST) off 3 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. Take the Sooners.
12-06-13	Bowling Green +5.5 v. Northern Illinois	Top	47-27	Win	100	10 h 9 m	Show
10* graded play on Bowling Green as they take on Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BG will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great opportunity to upset Northern Illinois. Given this favorable projection and the fact that the line has gone from 3 to 4 1/2, I suggest playing this as a 9* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line. Bowling Green was 5-3 and then ripped off four impressive wins to get to 9-3 and earn the right to play in the MAC Championship game. Two of these wins were against inferior foes Miami (Ohio) and Eastern Michigan, but the other two were romps against solid opponents in Ohio University (49-0) and Buffalo just last week. In that game against Buffalo, BG won 24-7 and easily covered as 3 1/2 point road favorites. They outgained Buffalo by 259 yards and held them to just 15 rushing yards on 24 carries. BG is a stout 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after outgaining opponents by 175 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. BG has a very strong defense that ranks 5th in the nation allowing 14.4 PPG, 6th allowing 295 yards-per-game, 5th posting a 0.224 opponent points per play, and 3rd allowing 5.5 opponent yards per pass. Moreover, during this win streak, they have not allowed any team to gain more than 100 rushing yards. This is a defense that can shut down Northern Illinois and their QB Jordan Lunch. Take Bowling Green.
11-30-13	Clemson v. South Carolina -3	Top	17-31	Win	100	9 h 10 m	Show
10* graded play on the South Carolina as they take on Clemson in a huge CFBN game set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SC will win this game by 5 or more points. Let's take a look at some of the game situations. Spurrier is a solid 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of SC; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a home favorite of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992; 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 58-21 mark using the money line and has made 44 units/unit wagered since 1992 and has averaged a +111 DOG play. When isolating just slight favorites this system has done remarkably well posting a 27-11 mark. I will not be playing this game as a ML wager, but it you are a ML player, then I strongly believe that is a good move as the risk-reward profile and ROI is excellent. Here is a second ML system that has gone 33-5 for 87% winners since 1992 and is 5-0 this season. Play on a home team using the money line (S CAROLINA) in a game involving two explosive offensive teams scoring >=34 PPG and after a win by 35 or more points. The word is preparation for this matchup and no one prepares better for big games than Spurrier. His record speaks for itself and I am confident he will have his team ready to play their best game this season. Take the Gamecocks.
11-30-13	Tennessee v. Kentucky +4	Top	27-14	Loss	-105	9 h 17 m	Show
10* graded play on Kentucky as they take on Tennessee in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Kentucky will win this game and taking the points is an added gift. I believe there is a possibility this line could lift to four during the day. This will also move the money line to a favorable level to execute a combination bet. I would suggest playing a 10* play on the line and then adding a 2* amount using the money line on Kentucky. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?49-36 mark using the money line for 58% winners and has made a whopping 49 units/unit wagered averaging a +180 DOG play since 1992. It is 2-0 making 3.0 units this season. Play against a road team using the money line (TENNESSEE) after scoring and allowing 17 points or less and is now facing an opponent after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games. This system is a remarkable 10-2 making 18.4 units/unit wagered over the last three seasons. The Kentucky offense has sputtered all season, but it has been against SEC foe. Now, they have a shot at getting the offense rolling against a very poor Tennessee defensive unit. The SIM shows that Kentucky will score 28 or more points. In past games, Tennessee is just 1-11 against the money line (-11.3 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
11-30-13	Baylor v. TCU +14.5	Top	41-38	Win	100	4 h 29 m	Show
10* graded play on TCU as they take on Baylor in Big 12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. I also like making this a 10* play using the line and adding a 1.5* amount using the money line. Oklahoma State has showed the 'recipe' used to defeat Baylor and you can bet that TCU will have watched that game film extensively. TCU has the secondary to challenge BU's offense, much like OSU did, so think twice before automatically slotting this game into Baylor's win column. Every season, there are a few teams that come out of nowhere to reach BCS Bowl considerations. Then there is the one game that ends the dream and it is then very difficult for that team to finish the season strong. The reason is confidence. Baylor had been playing with immense confidence until getting hammered by Oklahoma State. Now, the mindset of the team is that we were not really as good as we thought we were and that is extremely difficult for any coaching staff to over come. TCU is a stout 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games after a bye week since 1992; 32-15 ATS (+15.5 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games since 1992. HC Patterson is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games after a bye week as the coach of TCU. TCU ranks 12th in the nation allowing 3.2 yards per rush and ranks 14th allowing just 52% pass completions. TCU may have a losing record, but their team matches up very well against the one-loss Baylor Bears, who are still trying to believe what happened to them last week against Oklahoma State. Take TCU.
11-29-13	Fresno State v. San Jose State +9.5	Top	52-62	Win	100	6 h 42 m	Show
10* graded play on San Jose State as they host Fresno State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SJS will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great opportunity to post an upset win. Given these favorable projections, I suggest playing it as a 10* play using the line and adding a 2* amount using the money line. With Carr under center for the Bulldogs and SJS riddled with injuries, you would think that FSU will easily win this game, especially knowing they have been passed by Northern Illinois as the top non-automatic qualifying candidate for one of the top postseason games. However, this is a true rivalry game and although it never gets the media attention that say, the Iron Bowl does, it is still filled with very hard and spirited play - especially by the so-called underdogs, who have something to prove. The public is all over FSU for these and other reasons. In fact, the level of irrational exuberance has reached bettering extremes with more than 81% of all bets being placed on FSU. Of the 12 books I track, when ever the level reaches 71% it is a red flag and becomes increasingly more irrational the higher the percentage reaches. This technical tool serves ONLY to reinforce the grading by the SIM and by itself is never a reason that I would make a play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?66-36 ATS mark for 65% winners since 2008. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FRESNO ST) after a game where they forced no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. One of the keys to this game will be the ability of SJS to establish a ground game. The SIM projects they will and will gain between 125 and 150 rushing yards. In past games, SJS is 7-1 ATS when rushing for 125 to 150 yards over the last three seasons. The SIM also projects that FSU will allow 450 to 500 total offensive yards and in past games when allowing this range, they are just 7-26 ATS since 1992. Here is a money line system that has produced a 16-10 mark making 27.4 units/unit wagered and has averaged a +235 dog play since 1992. Play on home underdogs using the money line (SAN JOSE ST) in a game involving two excellent offensive teams gaining >=440 YPG and after 7+ games and after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Take San Jose State.
11-29-13	Texas State +7 v. Troy	Top	28-42	Loss	-110	52 h 47 m	Show
10* graded play on Texas State as they take on Troy in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that TS will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at getting the upset win. Given these favorable projections, I always like taking advantage of an additional Money Line play as long as the Return-on-investment (ROI) warrants. In this case, the ROI is quite favorable so I suggest playing a 10* amount using the line and adding a 2* amount using the money line. Texas State is 6-5 and bowl eligible, but obviously adding this win at Veterans Memorial Stadium would certainly heighten bowl interest. TS is just 2-4 in conference play and truly needs this win over a 3-3 conference Troy team. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?60-14 mark for 81% winners using the money line since 1992. Play on a road team using the money line (TEXAS ST) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival and with a winning record on the season playing a losing record team. I truly love the ground attack of TS matched up against the Troy run stop scheme. TS runs the ball 60% of the time and averages 158 rushing yards per game. This will set up play action for TS where the Troy secondary has been strugglign all season. Take Texas State.
11-23-13	Arizona State -3 v. UCLA	Top	38-33	Win	100	8 h 46 m	Show
10* graded play on Arizona State as they take on UCLA in a huge PAC-12 matchup set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ASU will win this game by 7 or more points. I still like playing this as a 10* play using the line as there the risk/reward of playing the ML is not justified. That is not because I think ASU may not win the game but rather the Return-On-Investment quotient (ROI) that I use and had also used during my Wall Street career trading currencies and international debt instruments. ASU leads the PAC-12 South Division by one game over UCLA and USC, who they have already defeated. This program has had a 2-year goal to go to the Rose Bowl and the only item left to accomplish that is to defeat UCLA today. ASU gets the job done in the turnover department in nearly every game by virtue of their turnover margin. UCLA is just 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-25 mark using the Money Line and has made a whopping 50 units/unit wagered averaging a +188 dog play. Play against a home team using the money line (UCLA) after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better and is now facing an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Here is a second money line system that has produced a 35-17 record for 67% winners and has made 44 units per unit wagered since 2008 and has averaged a +175 dog play. Play on road team using the money line (ARIZONA ST) in a game involving two good teams outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 YPP and after 7+ games have been played. ASU has the vastly better defense in this matchup and arguably the superior offense as well. ASU has been very successful shutting down the ground attack and forcing teams to throw into the true strength of their defense. ASU offense ranks 9th getting 41 PPG, 24th getting 470 yards-per-game, and have a fantastic FG kicker that his hit 95% of his attempts on the season. So, I see this as a chance to get ona dog with the better OL and DL and the better special teams and receive points. Take ASU
11-23-13	Oregon v. Arizona +20.5	Top	16-42	Win	100	5 h 51 m	Show
10* graded play on Arizona as they host Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. This play marks the third straight time I have played against Oregon with Stanford winning SU and Utah giving the Ducks a very tough game before their starting QB went down to concussion and Oregon pulled away. Utah still covered a very juicy 28 1/2 point spread and were tied 14-14. The key fact is that QB Mariota is hurt. To what degree is not fully known since Oregon will not discuss injuries with the media. he ahs played with a knee brace since getting the injury in the UCLA game. He has stated that his mobility is not limited by the brace, but what defenses are showing him pre-snap. I believe it is a combination of the two factors. he is hobbled with the brace and negative rushing yards for the second straight game and opposing teams have been pouring over the Stanford game to prep for the Ducks offense. The true advantage of this matchup lies with the Arizona ground attack that ranks 10th averaging 50 rushes per game and 11th averaging 259 rushing yards per game. This is the perfect matchup for Arizona as it will set up play action pass plays in man coverage situations and also will give Arizona a huge edge in TOP. Strong ground attack and ball control are the two top ingredients necessary to compete with Oregon for four quarters. Take Arizona.
11-23-13	Michigan State v. Northwestern +7.5	Top	30-6	Loss	-110	3 h 40 m	Show
10* graded play on Northwestern as they take on Michigan State in Big Ten action set to start at Noon ET. PM. The simulator shows a high probability that Northwestern will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a shot at winning the game. Their 4-6 record is just not reflective of the strength of the Northwestern team. MSU may have 1 loss on the season, but their SOS has been one of the weakest in the Big Ten. This will be MSU's stiffest test since losing at Notre Dame in Week 4. What I like most about this matchup is the Northwestern defense that the SIM projects will hold MSU to 21 or fewer points. In past games, MSU is 0-1 ATS this season, 2-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 12-34 ATS since 1992 when they have scored between 15 and 21 points. The MSU defense ranks very high in nearly all of the major statistical categories, but again I point out their strength of schedule is very weak. MSU offense is a highly suspect unit that ranks 101st averaging 4.8 yards-per-play and 95th averaging 359 yards-per-game. It is a highly predictive offense with few wrinkles. They run the ball 57% of the time and I believe the Northwestern defensive front will contain the ground game and force MSI into 2nd and 3rd and long situations. Northwestern ranks 35th allowing 5.1 yards-per-play and 50th allowing 4.0 rushing-yards-game and this has been attained against significantly tougher competition than what MSU has faced this season. Take Northwestern.
11-23-13	Oklahoma v. Kansas State -5	Top	41-31	Loss	-106	2 h 51 m	Show
10* graded play on Kansas State as they take on Oklahoma in a huge BIG 12 showdown set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability K-State will win this game by seven or more points. Sooner HC Stoops, who played for HC Snyder and then was part of his coaching staff, looks to become the greatest winning coach in Sooner history. he is currently tied with Swtzer with 157 wins, but based on my research that celebration will have to wait at least another week. Sooners have essentially three quality QB that can lineup under center and as has been the case all season Stoops has not declared a starter. Still, teams, like Kansas State can prepare for this game knowing they will see all three of them at some point in various situations in the game. I view the defensive units as near equals in this matchup, but K-State has a tremendous advantage on the offensive side. Both teams can run the ball well, but K-State has a much more balanced attack. K-State ranks 11th with a 0.522 points-per-play ration, 6th converting 52% of their third down situations, 23rd averaging 210 RYPG, and 9th averaging 9.0 yards-per-pass. It is the last ranking that K-State will be able to exploit. They use a passing game with high percentage passes designed to maximize yards after the catch. K-State HC Snyder is a resounding 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games. SIM shows a projection calling for K-State to score 28+ points in this game. Sooners are just 1-11 ATS the past three seasons and 12-61 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28+ points in a game. K-State is 5-2 ATS this season and 19-4 ATS the past three seasons when scoring 28+ points in a game. Take K-State.
11-21-13	Rutgers +17.5 v. Central Florida	Top	17-41	Loss	-106	5 h 53 m	Show
10* graded play on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as they take on UCF in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rutgers will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. UCF is just not playing well as evidenced by their near losses to Houston and Temple. They were 13 1/2 point favorites against Houston and had to fight down the stretch just to get away with a 19-14 home win. Then things worsened as they fell behind a 1-win Temple team and required a TD catch late in the fourth quarter that will be an ESPY Finalist. They won 39-36 and were 17 1/2 point favorites. Rutgers is a vastly better team than Temple and has had games to review what Houston and Temple did to squash the UCF offense. I like Rutgers too, as a 5* First half play and this is well supported by a super system that has hit 81% winners since 2002. Play against home favorites using the 1rst half line (UCF) that are off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a home blowout loss by 28 points or more. Rutgers is coming off a horrid losing 52-17 to a near-equal Cincinnati team. UCF is missing several starters due to injuries and some are listed as probable, but even if they play at 80%, I strongly believe Rutgers will be able to accomplish exactly what Temple did last week. Take Rutgers.
11-21-13	Rice v. UAB +18	Top	37-34	Win	100	5 h 45 m	Show
10* graded play on Alabama-Birmingham as they host Rice in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UAB will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. UAB is a rock solid 27-8 ATS (+18.2 Units) after a 2 game road trip since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-12 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (UAB) after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning from last year's team. 25 of the 39 winners covered the spread by 7 or more points and this under scores my strong belief that this will end up being a single digit result. The SIM projects that UAB will score 28 or more points and this has not been good news for backers of Rice in this situation. Note, that Rice is just 4-11 ATS over the past three seasons and 44-90 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28+ points in a game. Take UAB.
11-20-13	Northern Illinois v. Toledo +3	Top	35-17	Loss	-105	9 h 10 m	Show
10* graded play on Toledo as they take on Northern Illinois in MAC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. I also have a 5* play 'UNDER' the posted total and would recommend a 2* parlay using the money line and the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that Toledo will win this game and that there will be less than 70 points scored in this game. SIM projects that Toledo will score 28 or more points and this is not good news for Northern Illinois. In past games, NO is just 0-2 ATS this season and 2-11 ATS the past three seasons when allowing 28+ points in a game. They are 0-5 ATS when allowing 28 to 35 points over the past three seasons. Toledo is 6-1 ATS this season and 16-9 ATS the past three seasons when scoring 28+ points. Moreover, the SIM projects that Toledo will gain more than 500 offensive yards. In past games, Toledo is 4-0 ATS this season, 10-4 ATS the past three seasons, and 36-8 ATS since 1992 when gaining 500+ offensive yards. NI has Jordan Lynch, who should be in the Heisman conversation as he has been the dominant player in both the passing and running game that has earned NI the Top-20 ranking they enjoy. However, Toledo bring the top ground attack in the MAC and Fluellen has been upgraded to probable. Since his achilles strain, freshman Kareem Hunt has been tremendous and the two together will be very tough for the NI defensive front to contain. Take Toledo for 10, the 'under' for 5, and a 2* parlay using Toledo (ML) and the 'under'.
11-16-13	Stanford v. USC +4	Top	17-20	Win	100	9 h 5 m	Show
10* graded play on USC as they host Stanford in PAC-12 action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?32-7 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2002. 22 of the 32 wins covered by 7 or more points and under scores my belief that USC wins this game. This system is also 9-1 ATS over the past three seasons and 18-2 ATS over the past five seasons. Play against a road team (STANFORD) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points and is now facing an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This system simply points out the strong probability for a major letdown by the Cardinal after their tremendous win over Oregon last Thursday, which was a 10* winning play for us. Stanford defeated then-no.3 Oregon 26-20 and easily covered as 11 point dogs having never trailed in the game and had built up a 26-0 lead. USC is off an impressive win as well, albeit, not with the media attention of Stanford. USC defeated Cal 62-28 and easily covered as 19 point favorites. In a role reversal of sorts, USC will control the LOS and will dictate the pace of play and have a significant edge in TOP. Take the Trojans.
11-16-13	Utah +28 v. Oregon	Top	21-44	Win	100	8 h 6 m	Show
10* graded play on Utah as they take on Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at The simulator shows a high probability that Utah will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. Utah has played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation and are a solid team despite being just 4-5 on the season. The recipe needed to defeat Oregon has been lade out on the kitchen table. I had Stanford as one of 10* winners and also added a Money Line play on that upset win. The reason I liked Stanford so much is that they had a big OL and DL that could wear down the Oregon lines and maintain a significant edge in TOP. Oregon had just 62 rushing yards on 24 carries against Stanford. Prior to this season-low, the season low for rushing was 216 yards against Tennessee in Week 3. Stanford's lone loss was to Utah, which does provide some ample evidence that they can compete with any team in the nation. Oregon QB, Marcus Mariota, is upgraded to probable for this game, but he ahs had this knee injury since the UCLA game. His mobility has been compromised as three of his 6 rushes were sacks against Stanford. The past two games, the Oregon defensive front has been exploited with UCLA gaining 219 yards and Stanford 274 yards. Utah has a stable of RB led by Bubba Poole. His name is not a reflection of what you might think of him as he is a solid 6-0, 195 pounds with tremendous athleticism. Travis Wilson is the pounding back with 5 TD on the season. He is the player with the size (6-6), 240) that will be featured in this game and will simply wear down the Oregon defensive front. I certainly do not think that Utah will be able to compete for four quarters equally with the Ducks, but 26 points is just far too many to give Utah in this matchup.
11-16-13	Washington State +13 v. Arizona	Top	24-17	Win	100	3 h 22 m	Show
10* graded play on Washington State as they take on Arizona in PAC 12 action set to start at 2:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that WSU will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. WSU is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons; Arizona is just 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992; 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992. WSU is off a terrible 55-21 loss hosting ASU. However, HC Leach is a perfect 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival in all games he has coached since 1992. Arizona is off a 31-26 home loss to UCLA and were installed as 2 point favorites. HJC Rodriguez I just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?29-8 mark for 78% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ARIZONA) off a home loss and with 17 or more total starters returning. Take Washington State.
11-16-13	Maryland v. Virginia Tech -15.5	Top	27-24	Loss	-110	3 h 30 m	Show
This is the first of many 10* releases in All-Sports. be sure to check back often to make certain you get them all to maximize your daily profit in All Sports. 10* graded play on the Virginia Tech Hokies as they take on the Maryland Terrapins in ACC action set to start at 12:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tech will win this game by at least 17 points. I had V-Tech in their dominant road win last week against Miami (Fla) and now they face a Terrapin team that is just a mess on both sides of the ball. Maryland is just one game away from bowl eligibility, but a three game losing streak has brought attention to some of the glaring weaknesses on this team. In last week's embarrassing home loss to Syracuse, they had more turnovers than points scored. More injuries have ravaged the receiving corps, leaving them with just three players who have caught a pass in their college careers. Quarterback C.J. Brown hasn
11-15-13	Washington +3 v. UCLA	Top	31-41	Loss	-100	8 h 29 m	Show
10* graded play on the Washington Huskies as they take on UCLA in PAC-12 action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will win this game. I normally would split this 10* amount into an 8* amount using the line and a 2* amount on the money line, but the money line does not offer sufficient value/reward in playing it. So, my recommendation would be to just play Washington as a 108 play using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?30-8 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1992. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals and in a game involving two good teams posting win percentages between 60% to 80%. This system produces only a few plays per season, but it is certainly a valuable one noting that it is a perfect 3-0 ATS over the past three seasons. SIM shows that Washington will score 28 or more points. In past games, Washington is a solid 5-2 ATS this season and 15-5 ATS over the past three seasons when scoring 28 or more points. UCLA, though is 0-1 ATS this season and 5-11 ATS over the past three seasons when they allow 28 or more points. Take Washington
11-14-13	Marshall v. Tulsa +13.5	Top	45-34	Win	100	30 h 13 m	Show
10* graded play on Tulsa as they take on Marshall in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tulsa will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-10 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2002. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MARSHALL) that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game and after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. The flash rankings may indicate that Tulsa will struggle to run the ball, but when you take in consideration several other facts, including the very weak SOS that Marshall has played, you can readily see that this will be a dominant theme in the game. I strongly believe that Tulsa will do very well running the ball and this in turn will set up play action in man coverage situations on the perimeter. Marshall may be bowl eligible, but their six wins have been against Miami (Ohio), Gardner-Webb, UT-San Antonio,, Florida Atlantic, Southern Mississippi, and UAB. Not a very strong resume to say the least. Tulsa has played against Colorado State, Bowling Green, Oklahoma, and East Carolina. So, you can see by these respective lists out misleading the flash stats are for this game. Take Tulsa.
11-13-13	Ball State +7.5 v. Northern Illinois	Top	27-48	Loss	-105	8 h 39 m	Show
10* graded play on Ball State as they take on Northern Illinois in a battle of the MAC Giants set to start at 7:00 PM ET. Both teams have had great seasons, but both are in the same division in the MAC Conference. The simulator shows a high probability that Ball State will lose this game by five or fewer points. I like making a 10* play using the line and adding a 2* amount using the money line. Ball State is a solid 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?29-5 ATS mark for 85% winners since 2007. Play on a road team (BALL ST) after 3 straight wins by 17 or more points and is facing an opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. NI has one of the best statistical ranked offenses in the FBS, but I strongly believe that it is severely over stated by the SOS they have faced. Ball State has faced a significantly more difficult schedule and I do believe they have the defense to get the job done tonight. Based on the SIM, 28 points will be a huge factor in this game tonight. The SIM shows a very high probability that Ball State will score 28 or more points and will hold NI and Heisman-vote-getter Lynch to less than 250 net passing yards. In past games, NI is 0-2 ATS this season and 2-11 ATS the past three seasons when they allowed 28 points. Ball State is a solid 7-1 ATS this season and 20-5 ATS the past three seasons when scoring 28 or more points and are 6-1 ATS when holding an opponent to fewer than 250 net passing yards. Take Ball State.
11-09-13	Virginia Tech +7 v. Miami (Florida)	Top	42-24	Win	100	8 h 15 m	Show
10* graded play on the Virginia Tech Hokies as they take on the Miami Hurricanes in ACC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that V-Tech will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a solid shot at upsetting the Canes. Given the favorable projections, I like playing this as a 9* play using the line and a 1* playing using the Money Line. Miami is coming off a very humiliating loss to FSU losing 41-14 and failed to cover as 21 point dogs. This was my ACC Game of the Year winner last week. Now, the Canes have to try to refocus all of their positive energies to face a tough Tech squad tonight. I don't see the Canes being able to rid themselves of the reality that they endured last week. They now know and unfortunately believe that they are no longer BCS Title contenders and also know they are light years from the talent and execution of FSU. The Miami defense entered the FSU team confident and ranked very high in several categories nationally. However, they were completely ripped apart and FSU actually did not play their 'A' level game. The Tech run defense is perhaps the most under rated group in the nation. They rank ninth allowing 18.6 PPG, third allowing 264 YPG, second allowing 4.0 yards-per-play, and fifth allowing 2.9 rushing yards per play. Miami is going to have difficulty running the ball and this will be a major problem in being able to use any sort of play action. Further Miami ranks just 67th completing 58% of their pass plays. Tech also knows how to control the ball and gain significant edges in TOP where they rank 18th in the nation. By comparison, Miami ranks 118th in TOP. Hokies are a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games since 1992. Take the Hokies.
11-09-13	Mississippi State +20 v. Texas A&M	Top	41-51	Win	100	4 h 5 m	Show
10* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that MS will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. If you can get a money line, I would add no more than a 1* unit 'just in case' the upset happens. Every season, I have had double digit dogs as high has 23 points win the game SU. I obviously never know when this will happen, but placing a little extra wager on the money line puts you in position to take advantage of that distinct possibility when it does happen. Texas A&M is built around their offense and Manziel and they do perform at a high level. Their defense has been many victimized by the prolific offense and just spends far too much time on the field and don't have the personnel necessary to get off the field with third-down stops. This is evident in several game situations. The SIM shows that MS will score 28 or more points and will establish the run game and average between 5.0 and 5.5 yards-per-attempt. In past games, MS is 3-0 ATS this season and 6-1 ATS the past three season when gaining between 5.0 and 5.5 RYPA. A&M is just 1-5 ATS this season and 3-13 ATS the past three seasons when they have allowed 28 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?35-7 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2007. Play on road underdogs (MISSISSIPPI ST) that are good offensive teams gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and is now facing a poor defense allowing 5.6 to 6.2 YPP after 7+ games have been played. This system is 5-0 ATS this season. Take Mississippi State.
11-09-13	SMU +8 v. Cincinnati	Top	25-28	Win	100	3 h 59 m	Show
10* graded play on SMU as they take on Cincinnati in American Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a reasonable shot at an improbable upset win. Given these projections I would suggest playing a 9* amount using the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line. This does equal 1/2 unit more than the 10* play, but it enhances the ROI on this opportunity considerably. SMU QB Gilbert, a Texas transfer, had a huge game last week against Temple. He threw for 538 passing yards and added 97 rushing yards in their come from behind 59-49 win. The performance set all sorts of school records and I strongly believe he will have another solid game today. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-8 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2008 and is 25-4 ATS over the past three seasons. Play on road underdogs (SMU) with a very strong offense averaging 450 or more total yards/game and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. SMU has played a vastly stronger schedule than Cincinnati and this 'seasoning' will pay-off in this matchup. SMU HC Jones is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when facing excellent defensive teams allowing <=285 yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Cincinnati HC Tuberville is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992. Take the SMU Mustangs.
11-09-13	Auburn v. Tennessee +8	Top	55-23	Loss	-110	2 h 21 m	Show
10* graded play on the Tennessee Volunteers as they take on the Auburn Tigers in SEC action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UT will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a great shot at upsetting the Tigers. Given these favorable projections, I would suggest an alternative wager using a 10* play on the line and a 2* play using the money line. The entire nation knows that Auburn will run the ball in this game. They have the Conference best ground attack and ranks 6th nationally. In last week's 35-17 win over Arkansas, the Tigers passed nine times. Tennessee has the conference-worst run defense, so based on flash' stats Auburn should have their way in this matchup. However, Tennessee can play a complete run defense and force Auburn to throw the ball more than in recent games. I like Tennessee's corners and I believe they will hold up well in man-coverage situations allowing the other 8 defenders to focus on the run. The other matchup that I like quite a bit is when Tennessee runs the ball. They too, have a great advantage to win the battle at the LOS and get their ground game going. Further, Auburn's pass defense is highly suspect and Tennessee has far more athleticism at the skill positions. So, look for Tennessee to use play action on early downs and look to exploit man coverage on the perimeter or over the middle of the field if zone defense is recognized. VOLS HC Jones is a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after being outgained by opponents by 125 or more total yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?59-26 ATS mark for 70% winners since 2002. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) with a poor first half defense allowing 16 or more points per game and after scoring 9 points or less last game. Take Tennessee.
11-08-13	Louisville v. Connecticut +28	Top	31-10	Win	100	10 h 22 m	Show
10* graded play on Connecticut Huskies as they take on the Louisville Cardinal in American Conference action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. This game will be televised on ESPN2. The simulator shows a high probability that UCONN will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. This line is highly inflated by a public sentiment expecting Louisville to run the score up on a weaker foe to gain BCS respect. The sentiment is fed by the two teams overall records as well. However, UCONN may be winless, but they have played a vastly more difficult schedule than Louisville has to date. This is not to say that UCONN would have a winning record had they played the same teams as Louisville, but rather to point out that UCONN has already played tough opponents. This seasoning can only help UCONN tonight in front a national TV audience. Moreover, Louisville will undoubtedly be looking ahead to next week's showdown against Houston (7-1, 4-0) where they can earn a little more respect from the pollsters with a dominating win. So, the fact is that if Louisville gets up to a big lead, the bench players will be put into the game. No point in getting any starter injured in this game. UCONN is a solid 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games off a road loss against a conference rival since 1992; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1992; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off 2 consecutive road losses since 1992. Take UCONN.
11-07-13	Oregon v. Stanford +11	Top	20-26	Win	100	8 h 16 m	Show
10* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they host the Oregon Ducks in a HUGE PAC-12 matchup set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Stanford will lose this game by fewer than 9 points and has a shot at upsetting the Dicks. I like adding a 1.5* amount using the Money Line in addition to the 10* play getting the points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-10 ATS for 77% winners since 2002. Play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OREGON) that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game and after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. of the 34 winning plays, 19 of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. This system has also gone a solid 12-3 ATS for 80% winners over the past three seasons. Stanford has played a much more difficult schedule than Oregon. I am not in the least saying that Oregon is not a great team, but they are over rated by many measures in my opinion. One of which, is that the Ducks have not had to standup to the very strong and pounding grounds attack that Stanford brings to their games. Stanford has the same ingredients and team composition that dominated Oregon last year when the Ducks were 18 1/2 point home favorites. In that game Stanford had the ball for 37:05 minutes, had 21 FD, 211 passing yards and ran the ball 46 times for 200 yards. Oregon does rank better than Stanford in rushing stats, but that is because Oregon runs the spread and uses a wide array of running/option plays. Stanford runs a power game that is designed to gain a TOP advantage and to wear down a defensive front over the course of the game. Moreover, Oregon has not had to play strong defense in a closely contested game yet this season. Due to their large leads they have been able to play very basic underneath/bracket type coverages. Stanford has a very good defense too and I do believe that Mariota will throw at least one INT tonight. Cardinal RB Gaffney (6-1,225) will run over Duck defenders at the second level. He is also elusive and very hard to find behind the VERY athletic and large OL. He will have a big night and this in turn sets up play action for Hogan to complete passes in space to Montgomery and Cajuste, who are both excellent gaining yards after the catch. Take Stanford.
11-05-13	Ohio +3.5 v. Buffalo	Top	3-30	Loss	-105	30 h 55 m	Show
10* graded play on Ohio University (OU) as they take on Buffalo in MAC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This game will be televised by ESPN2.The simulator shows a high probability that Ohio University will win this game. This is a major showdown in MAC action with Buffalo leading the East Division with a 4-0 record and Ohio U right behind at 3-1. The winner will take a major step toward winning the East Division and a ticket to the MAC Championship. OU QB Tyler Tettleton has provided tremendous team leadership. He has thrown for 300 passing yards, 9 TD, 3 INT in his last three games. He has completed 69 passes of 95 attempts and posted a 190 QB rating over this span. OU ranks 15th in the nation averaging 8.6 yards-per-pass. Now, this does not mean they have the 15th best when SOS and Conference PR are factored in, but it is extremely strong when compared to other MAC teams. I also belevie the ground attack will be highly successful against Buffalo and this then allows Tettleton to use play-action knowing he has man coverage over the majority of the field. RB Blankenship is a 'fireplug' power runner, but has great elusiveness and is very hard to bring down in space. He is 5-9 and 206 pounds and is hard to locate behind the massive OL. He has great quickness through holes. WR Foster, who has 50 catches for 718 yards and 6 TD, will be a primary focus of the Buffalo defense. This then opens up the opportunity for Cochran to play an even graeter role in the offensive scheme. Buffalo can't doubel team both and also defend the run. This is exactly why the balanced offensive attack will be highly successful against Buffalo. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?68-32 ATS for 68% winners since 2007. Play on a road team (OHIO U) after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games and is a good team winning 60-80% of their games on the season. Take Ohio University.
11-02-13	New Mexico +14 v. San Diego State	Top	30-35	Win	100	11 h 8 m	Show
10* graded play on New Mexico as they take on San Diego State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that New Mexico will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. In this case and based on the projections, I like playing this game as a 10* unit using the line and then adding a 2* amount using a very juicy money line. SDST is just 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams averaging >=5.9 yards/play since 1992. Based on my matchup analyses, New Mexico is the better team on both sides of the ball. They certainly have a much better offense that ranks 34th in the nation averaging 33 PPG, 23rd posting a 0.481 yards-per-point quotient2nd gaining 322 rushing yards per game. They do throw the ball as well, but rely squarely on the ground attack. They rank 81st averaging 6.7 YPP, and third with a paltry 0.94 interception percentage. So, this clearly reflects that when defenses steadily move up safeties to the LOS to stop the run, NM then exploits the spaces left in the middle of the field with high percentage pass plays. SDST ranks 81st allowing 32 PPG and rank and have not stopped a team from scoring in the red zone this entire season. The rankings would indicate that NM has the weaker of the two defenses. However, after factoring in how quickly the NM offense can score, then shows that NM defensive unit is a solid bunch at the MWC level. In this game, I strongly believe that MN will enjoy a significant edge in TOP and this will keep the defensive unit fully fresh to contain any SDST scoring threat. Take New Mexico.
11-02-13	Miami (Florida) v. Florida State -20.5	Top	14-41	Win	100	9 h 34 m	Show
10* graded play on Florida State as they host Miami (Fla) in ACC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by at least 24 points. I'll use some analogies here in hopes of how dangerous it is to take Miami and believe that this is just too many points. Well, taking Miami is like standing in front of an unstoppable freight train or perhaps better trying to catch a falling butcher knife. In somewhat of a rare situation, the public is modestly dominating the betting flows betting on the Hurricanes. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-11 ATS mark for 77% winners since 1992. Play on any team (FLORIDA ST) in a game involving two dominant teams that have outgained opponents by 1.2+ YPP and after 7+ games have been played. and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games. This system has also gone 7-1 ATS over the past three seasons and underscores the danger in fading teams that are playing against an elite team that has produced strong results for several weeks. I had identified FSU as a preseason pick for the National Title and really became confident in Week 3 as may of you already know. I had them as my ACC Game of the Year against Clemson two weeks ago. In sum, this team is getting better and has yet to play their best game. I have consistently identifed the FSU defense as the dominant reason they can win the ACC and get into the Title game. What is quite amazing, is that this unit gets better each week and the fact the offense has taken flight only makes it very difficult for any opponent to compete. FSU defense ransk 4th allowing 14.2 PPG, 7th allowing 297 YPG, 4th allowing 0.201 points-per-play, 5th allowing 4.2 YPP, and 2nd allowing just 27% third-down conversions. Miami offense is decent, but they are not strong enough to consistently move the chains. Moreover, they rank 75th converting only 38% of third conversions. This number will be significantly lower in this game. I could go on, but the play is FSU.
11-02-13	Georgia v. Florida +3	Top	23-20	Push	0	23 h 23 m	Show
10* graded play on Florida as they take on Georgia in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game. These two teams have identical records at 4-3 on the season and 3-2 in SEC. It is quite amazing that Georgia, who I still believe is a Top-10 team, could fall to 4-4 on the season. However, the winner will be just one game behind Missouri, who is very likely to lose at least one more game down the stretch. That's life in the SEC though and sometimes the injury bug is included. It has been Florida's turn this year to go through the injury gauntlet, but I also believe they are deep enough to plug-and-play and continue to play at a high level. This game is being played in Jacksonville on a neutral field making it even easier for both team's fans to attend. Florida's offense has been struggling since the loss of Driskel, but it has been the tenacity of the Gator defense that is the dominant reason Florida can win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?20-6 mark for 77% winners using the money line since 2007. Plat against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (GEORGIA) and is a solid rushing team gaining between 190 and 230 RY/G) and is now facing a good rushing defense allowing between 100 and 140 RY/G, after 7+ games have been played in the regular season. Florida defense ranks fifth in the nation allowing 16.3 PPG, 4th allowing 273 YPG, 4th allowing 27% third-down conversions, and fourth allowing 5.5 yards-per-pass. Take Florida.
11-01-13	USC +4.5 v. Oregon State	Top	31-14	Win	100	7 h 5 m	Show
10* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on Oregon State in PAC-12 action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Many times I will split the wager, or simply add a token amount to the money line to benefit from the projected upset. In this case, there is really no advantage to play the money line. I would not recommend adding more than 1.5* amount using the money line on top of the 10* amount using the line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?31-7 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2007 and has gone 19-2 ATS for 90% winners over the past three seasons. Play on road underdogs (USC) that are solid offensive teams gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and is now facing a poor defense allowing 5.6 to 6.2 YPP, after 7+ games of the regular season have been played. USC has had a very tough schedule this season. One of the toughest in the nation. OSU has not had that level of comp. All of the previous games that USC has played against tougher comp, makes the team stronger across the board and it will show tonight in numerous matchups. OSU may be 6-2 on the season, but they lost in Week 1 to Eastern Washington and last week against Stanford. The toughest part of their schedule is coming up starting with the Trojans, the @ ASU, Washington, then @ Oregon. USC defense has been their best football right now and the SIM shows a projection that OSU will not gain more than 100 rushing yards. In past games, where USC has allowed 75 to 100 rushing yards, they are 1-0 ATS this season, 6-1 ATS the past three seasons. Take USC.
10-30-13	Cincinnati v. Memphis +2.5	Top	34-21	Loss	-107	29 h 28 m	Show
10* graded play on the Memphis Tigers as they host the Cincinnati Bearcats in American Athletic Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET, Wednesday October 30. The simulator shows a high probability that Memphis will win this game and taking the 2 1/2 points is the way to go. I often times use the money line with dogs where the upset probability is significant. However, this skinny line does not afford a strong risk/reward profile to add a small play using the money line in addition to the 10* line play. The key to this game is simply looking at the SOS and not the overall records. It is here where you realize why Memphis is just a 2 1/2 point dog. They have played a vastly more difficult schedule than Cincinnati. It is one of the widest margins I have seen this season. Take my word for it and on your own take a look at the lineup each team has faced to date. Cincy has been favored in every game this season and has gone 3-4 ATS against this weak competition. Memphis has been dogs in all., but one game and have gone 3-3 ATS against much stronger opponents. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites (CINCINNATI) that are solid offensive teams scoring between 28 and 34 PPG and is now facing against a struggling offensive team scoring between 16 and 21 PPG, after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games. Yes, it is true that Cincy scored more than 37 points. They scored 38 against a Temple team that is 0-4 in conference and 1-7 overall and 38 against a UCONN team that is 0-3 in conference and 0-7 overall. Take Memphis.
10-26-13	UCLA +24 v. Oregon	Top	14-42	Loss	-110	11 h 48 m	Show
10* graded play on the UCLA Bruins as they take on the Oregon Ducks in a PAC-12 showdown set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. Based on the body of research I have completed, this is just far too many points to give an explosive UCLA team. Oregon ranks very high in all offensive categories and they are quite deep coming off the bench. Sophomore Byron Marshall has taken the place of injured junior Thomas since Week 4 and has produced the second most rushing yards in the FBS. Although this is a great accomplishment, the levels of competition it was attained against is not impressive in the least. Thomas is expected to return and even though they are adding depth to the offense, I expect it to produce more of a chemistry problem with the OL having to execute for two different style runners. In fact, this game finds Oregon the least favored at 23 points of all lined games this season. Given the significant chalk for this game, I do think the look-ahead game against Stanford next week could be a distraction for the Ducks. They know they are 'supposed' to win over UCLA easily and that the most important game of the season rides next week in Palo Alto. UCLA is a very stout, resilient, and talented football team. The true weakness of the UCLA team is on the OL in pass protection. This weakness is more than offset by the juicy spread we are receiving though. OL play is built around game experience and I do believe that QB Hundley, who will be playing on Sundays, can create quick release throws to their playmakers in space. It is here where I strongly believe UCLA can compete with Oregon. These quick throws, are essentially running plays and they serve to minimize intensive blitz schemes, as Evans and Fuller (51, 619 yards) have major matchup advantages in man coverage situations. Don't forget too, that the UCLA offense is averaging 40 PPG ranking 11th best in the FBS and has been accomplished against a stronger SOS. This will be the BEST defense Oregon has faced yet with UCLA ranking 12th in the FBS allowing 19.2 PPG and 8th allowing 0.243 points-per-play. Take the points!
10-26-13	South Carolina +3 v. Missouri	Top	27-24	Win	100	8 h 8 m	Show
10* graded play on South Carolina as they take on Missouri in SEC Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that South Carolina (SC) will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?45-18 mark for 71% winners making 32 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MISSOURI) that is an excellent rushing team gaining >=230 RYPG and is now facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing140 to 190 RYPG, and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This system has averaged a +115 DOG play. Gamecocks are a solid 8-1 against the money line (+8.1 Units) when facing solid passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game in games played over the last 3 seasons. Missouri is off a most impressive home win defeating the Gators 36-17 as three point dogs. However, most teams that are off a headline-making win are very prone to letdowns the next game. In fact, the Tigers are off three straight impressive wins over Vandy, Georgia, and Florida. The bad news for Tiger fans is that they are a money burning 20-32 against the money line (-43.2 Units) after a win by 17 or more points since 1992. Missouri has played a difficult schedule just being the SEC. Yet, SC has played one of the toughest slates of any team in the nation. This provides a slight edge to the Gamecocks, who bring one of the fastest defenses in the SEC to this matchup. In my opinion, it will be a dominant SC defense that will drive them to a win today. Take SC.
10-26-13	Ball State v. Akron +10	Top	42-24	Loss	-106	4 h 24 m	Show
10* graded play on Akron as they host Ball State in MAC Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Akron will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. Based on the favorable projections I like playing an alternative wager using a 8.5* amount on the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line to take advantage of the possible SU win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?69-33 ATS mark for 68% winners since 2002. Play on home underdogs (AKRON) that ahs been a struggling rushing team averaging 125 or less rushing yards/game and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. Ball State is 7-1 on the season with a perfect 4-0 mark in conference play. They are tied for first with NO. 16 Northern Illinois, who they play at their house in two weeks. Their offensive stats are impressive, but they have been attained against a significantly weak schedule of opponents. Akron has just 2 wins, but has played a vastly more difficult schedule. In Week 3 Akron played Michigan very tough and nearly upset them on their own field losing 28-24 and easily covered the 35 point spread. Granted, we have found out that Michigan was not a Top-25 type team this season, but the ability of any team to go to Michigan and play that well is impressive. What I expect is that Akron's defense will rise to the challenge of containing and stopping the Ball State offense. As noted, Akron's team stats are middle of the road, but they are against much stronger comp than Ball State ahs faced. I also believe the team speed that Akron has at the skill positions is going to create matchup issues for Ball State to defend. Take Akron.
10-24-13	Marshall v. Middle Tenn State +8.5	Top	49-51	Win	100	33 h 24 m	Show
10* graded play on Middle Tennessee State as they host Marshall in C-USA action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. This game will be aired on Fox Sports 1. The simulator shows a high probability that MDTS will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot a earning a home upset win. More important is that with a win, they even their season record at 4-4 and then face a much easier schedule down the stretch that includes winless Southern Mississippi and 1-5 UTEP and 1-5 Florida International. They have also played a vastly more difficult schedule than Marshall and this 'seasoning' nearly always pays off for teams in the second half of the season. The statistical rankings would show that Marshall has the better offense and a significantly better defense, but when you discount the SOS that Marshall has played, it is not all that impressive. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?58-26 ATS mark for 69% winners since 2002. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIDDLE TENN ST) with a poor first half defense allowing 16 or more points per game and after scoring 9 points or less last game. MDTS has no significant injuries and RB Jordan Parker is a back with the style and power that has been difficult on the Marshall defense. In most games, Marshall has built a lead and has not had to be concerned about a solid ground attack. I strongly believe the RB duo of Parker and Whatley will be a dominant factor in MDTS covering this generous number.
10-22-13	Louisiana-Lafayette v. Arkansas State +2.5	Top	23-7	Loss	-103	32 h 12 m	Show
10* graded play on Arkansas State as they host LA-Lafayette in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This is a very important game for both teams in the Sun Belt Conference and to become bowl eligible. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas State (AS) will win this game. The SIM projects that AS will rush for 200 to 250 yards and will score 28 or more points. In past games played over the past three seasons, AS is a perfect 8-0 ATS when the rush the ball for 200 to 250 yards and are 17-4 ATS when scoring 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-3 mark for 89% winners using the money line since 1992. Play against a road team using the money line (LA LAFAYETTE) in a game involving two excellent offensive teams scoring >=440 YPG and after being outgained by opponents by 125 or more total yards last game. This system has averaged a DOG PLAY of +115. Take Arkansas State.
10-19-13	Florida State -3 v. Clemson	Top	51-14	Win	100	33 h 52 m	Show
10* graded play on Florida State as they take on the Clemson Tigers in a huge ACC showdown set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-7 ATS for 79% winners since 2007. Play on a road team (FLORIDA ST) that is a solid team outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game and after gaining 450 or more total yards in 5 consecutive games. 18 of the 26 winners or 69% covered the spread by 7 or more points. FSU is coming off a most impressive 63-0 win over then-ranked 20th Maryland two weeks ago and have had the full 2 weeks to prepare for Clemson. FSu offense ranks third in the nation scoring 53.5 PPG, fourth averaging 563 yards-per-game, second with an 0.767 points per play ration, and 2nd averaging 8.1 yards-per-play. Although Clemson ranks well with their offesnive stats, they are nowhere close to what FSU has done already and that they are a young team that will only get better. Tigers rank 17th averaging 28.6 PPG, 9th averaging 515 yards-per-game, 25th with a 0.478 points-per-play ratio, and 18th averaging 6.4 yards-per-play. Where the real difference lies though is the fact that the FSU defense is vastly better than the Clemson edition and is arguably the best defense in the nation. Given that both defense are elite in their own right it is imperative for the respective offenses to get some form of ground attack established to keep pressure off the QB. FSU has a tremendous advantage in this category and has a superior OL. FSU ranks ninth in the nation averaging 5.7 yards-per-rush, while Clemson ranks 70th averaging 4.0 yards=per-rush. I am confident that FSU will have far more success on first down then Clemson, and provides a substantially larger probability that FSU will move the chains far more often. FSU has the better OL and DL and even though he is a freshman, they have the better QB in Winston. He is 6-4 and 228 pounds and plays far beyond his years. Of note, is the last time FSU won in Death Valley was 2001 and they started a freshman quarterback. Sometimes, freshman are just not intimated by the situation and I believe that FSU will have a dominating performance.
10-19-13	Auburn +14 v. Texas A&M	Top	45-41	Win	100	25 h 40 m	Show
10* graded play on the Auburn as they take on Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 11 points. I love the advantages that Auburn has running the ball. I would expect them to attack the A&M suspect defensive front with 45+ rushing plays. SIM shows a very probability that Auburn will gain 300+ rushing yards. In past games where Tigers have gained 300+ rushing yards, they are a solid 4-0 ATS the past three seasons and 17-5 ATS since 1992. A&M is an imperfect 0-9 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 300+ rushing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?35-7 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2007. Play on road underdogs (AUBURN) with an incredible offense averaging 450 or more total yards/game and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. As already mentioned the power ground attack from Auburn will serve to run down the physicality of the A&M defensive front and will force them to go to man coverage. That is where play action will be a great opportunity for big gains. Take the Tigers.
10-15-13	Louisiana-Lafayette +3.5 v. Western Kentucky	Top	37-20	Win	100	7 h 42 m	Show
10* graded play on UL-Lafayette as they take on Western Kentucky in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ULL will win this game. I prefer playing this 10* Titan as an 8.5* amount using the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line to exploit the potential for the upset win. LA Lafayette is a solid 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=425 yards/game since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?34-7 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play on road underdogs (LA LAFAYETTE) with an incredible offense averaging 450 or more total yards/game and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. This system has gone 23-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Take UL-Lafayette.
10-12-13	California +25.5 v. UCLA Bruins	Top	10-37	Loss	-110	27 h 21 m	Show
10* graded play on California as they take on UCLA in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Cal will lose this game by 23 or fewer points. Cal has gone 0-5 ATS and as a result this line has been vastly inflated against a strong performing UCLA team. Cal gas played a very strong schedule, which has been one of the toughest in the nation so far. After all the analysis, I just don
10-12-13	Texas A&M v. Ole Miss +6.5	Top	41-38	Win	100	31 h 51 m	Show
10* graded play on the Mississippi as they host Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at 8:30 PM ET. This game certainly has upset alert written all over it. The simulator shows a high probability that the Rebels will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and have a great shot at winning the game. I like playing this as a 10* graded Titan with the points and then adding a 3* play using the money line to play for the upset. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?28-7 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2002. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OLE MISS) off a road loss and with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent. Rebels return 19 of 22 possible starters with 9 on offense (including the QB) and 10 on defense. Simple to see that this will be an old fashion shoot out and Rebels are a near certainty to score 28+ points in this game. In past games, A&M is just 1-3 ATS this season, 3-11 ATS the past three seasons, and 20-66 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28+ points in a contest. Moreover, A&M is just 1-3 ATS this season and 3-10 ATS over the past three seasons when both teams score 28 or more points. Rebels rank low in TOP, but this is actually a reflection of the strong and powerful offense. A&M matches up horribly poor against teams like the Rebels noting they are just 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in road games when facing ball control teams averaging 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992. Add to this the fact that A&M is just 6-22 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992 and 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last 3 seasons. Last, but not least, Rebels have played a far more difficult schedule than A&M. A&M has played just one team in Alabama that has truly tested them while Rebels have played just one 'scrimmage' against SE Missouri State in Week 2. Their other opponents have been Vanderbilt, Texas, Alabama, and Auburn. This also marks just the second home game of the season and you can bet the home fans and student body will be more than ready to support their team. Take Mississippi.
10-12-13	Michigan v. Penn State +2.5	Top	40-43	Win	100	22 h 32 m	Show
10* graded play on Penn State as they host No. 16 Michigan in Big Ten action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that PSU will win this game and the 2 1/2 points they are getting is a real gift. PSU is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992. SIm projects that PSU will score between 22 and 28 points in this game. In past games, Michigan is just 1-6 ATS the past three years and 12-36 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 22 to 28 points in a game. I also like how PSU defense, especially the front seven matches up against Michigan in this game. The SIM also confirms this projecting that Michigan will not gain more than 300 yards of offense. In past games, Wolverines are just 13-27 ATS since 1992 when they have gained less than 300 offensive yards. Breaking this projection down, it shows Michigan to gain an average between 4.0 and 4.5 yards per play. In past games, Michigan is 0-2 ATS the past three seasons and 13-30 ATS since 1992 when they have gained between 4.5 and 5.0 yards per play. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?32-19 mark for 63% winners using the money line and has made 27.1 units per unit wagered since 2007. It has averaged a +144 DOG play. Play on a home team using the money line (PENN ST) after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers and is now facing an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. Take Penn State.
10-10-13	San Diego State v. Air Force +4	Top	27-20	Loss	-110	9 h 6 m	Show
10* graded play on Air Force as they take on San Diego State in CFB action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that AF will lose this game by fewer than four points and has an excellent shot at getting a home upset win. I like playing this as a 10* play getting the points and then add no more than a 2.5* amount using the money line. AF got permission and approval from the government to resume all sports activities. Navy and Army are back in business with their sports programs as well. I won't get into just how rediculous Washington looks, well not Washington, but the politicians that we entrust the day-to-day operations of our country. SDST is coming off a shootout with Nevada winning 51-44 and covered by the 'hook'. However, such big offensive games often times lead to letdowns in the next game. SDST is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons; 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. AF has lost five straight games, but has played a stronger level of competition than SDST. This seasoning will benefit AF in this matchup and they know this is a game they can win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-7 mark for 78% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against a road team using the money line (SAN DIEGO ST) and is off a big home win scoring 38 or more points and sporting a losing record. It has gone a perfect 6-0 over the past five seasons. Take Air Force.
10-05-13	Arizona State -5.5 v. Notre Dame	Top	34-37	Loss	-104	53 h 1 m	Show
10* graded play on Arizona State as they take on Notre Dame in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET in Arlington Texas. The simulator shows a high probability that ASU will win this game by 7 or more points. ASU has one of the most potent offenses in the nation and rank 15th in the nation averaging 499 yards per game. They attack through the air, but their running game has to be respected as well. They are not just a one dimensional team as in year's past and I just don't see how ND is going to be able to hold them to less than 500 offensive yards. The SIM projects that ASU will gain more than 500 yards. In past games, they are a solid 2-0 ATS this season, 9-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 36-13 ATS since 1992 when gaining 500+ yards. There is an even higher probability that ASU will score more than 28 points and this has not been good news for ND in past games. ND is just 0-2 ATS this season, 1-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 12-60 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Take Arizona State.
10-05-13	TCU +9 v. Oklahoma	Top	17-20	Win	100	10 h 20 m	Show
10* graded play on the TCH as they take on Oklahoma in CFB action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. I also like a 5* play 'OVER' the posted total. The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will lose this game by fewer than seven points and has a reasonable probability of pulling off the upset win. TC is projected by the SIM to have at least 28 points on the scoreboard. In past games this has not been good news for backers of the Sooners noting they are just 0-9 ATS the past three seasons and 11-59 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points in a game. I also believe this will be a shootout and that favors TCU. Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS the past three seasons and 11-25 ATS since 1992 when both teams score 18 ore more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?21-19 mark using the line and has made a whopping 45 units/unit wagered since 2002 averaging a +303 dog play. Play on a road team using the money line (TCU) after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers and is now facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. The money line for this game is just below 300 so consider an optional 3* parlay playing TCU with the ML and the 'OVER'.
10-05-13	LSU v. Mississippi State +9	Top	59-26	Loss	-115	10 h 34 m	Show
7* graded play on Mississippi State as they take on LSU in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that MS will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. LSU is coming off a very physical and highly emotional loss at Georgia last week and is will be very difficult for them to take this opponent with the same focus they had for Georgia. LSU is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992; HC Miles is just 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored as the coach of LSU. SIM shows projections calling for MS to attain 400+ yards in total offense and average 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. In past games, LSU is just 9-23 ATS since 1992 when allowing 400 to 450 total yards and 10-22 ATS when allowing 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. This is State's shot at LSU and they know it.
10-05-13	Oregon v. Colorado +40	Top	57-16	Loss	-110	9 h 35 m	Show
7* graded play on Colorado as they host Oregon in PAC-12 matchup set to start at 6:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Colorado will lose this game by fewer than 36 points. Yes, this is a mismatch, but getting just far too many points. What matters most is that this is a 7* graded play from my SIM and should be played accordingly and with discipline. I also believe that Oregon is looking ahead to their showdown with Washington next week and will be taking starters out of the game once they get an insurmountable lead. RB De'Anthony Thomas is already going to miss this game with an ankle injury so it stands to reason Colorado, at some point, will be matched up against second and third team units. Take the Buffalos.
10-05-13	Georgia Tech +6.5 v. Miami (Florida)	Top	30-45	Loss	-110	7 h 10 m	Show
10* graded play on Georgia Tech as they take on Miami (Fla) in ACC action set to start at 3;30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that GT will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at a big upset road win this afternoon. GT is a solid 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after playing a Thursday game since 1992. Extra rest and prep work is a huge plus for GT. Miami has been dominant in their last two games, however, they are just 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. GT is coming off a game where they forced no turnovers in their loss to V-Tech. They also struggled to run the ball and having to pass 24 times is just not their style of play that wins games. However, coaching is a big factor at the Collegiate level and HC Johnson is a remarkable 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after a game where they forced no turnovers as the coach of GT; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams allowing <=310 yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?30-7 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2008. 70% of the winning plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Play on a road team (GEORGIA TECH) after scoring and allowing 17 points or less points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Take Georgia Tech.
10-05-13	UMass +27 v. Bowling Green	Top	7-28	Win	100	6 h 4 m	Show
7* graded play on UMASS as they play Bowling Green in CFB action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-7 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1992. Play on a road team (MASSACHUSETTS) off 3 or more consecutive 'unders', and is a struggling offensive team scoring 14 or less points/game. Over the past three seasons, this system has gone a solid 7-1 ATS. This system reflects the irrational exuberance being shown by public bettors backing Bowling Green. The public sees the records of each team and that UMASS is not scoring points. What they don't see is the vastly more difficult schedule UMASS has played to date. UMASS, by comparison, has played a more difficult schedule than many of the Top-25 ranked teams. They played at Wisconsin and at K-State with home tilts playing Maine and Vanderbilt. So, I expect the UMASS offense to have afar easier time moving the ball against Bowling Green and will certainly score enough points to cover this inflated spread.
10-03-13	UCLA v. Utah +4.5	Top	34-27	Loss	-110	59 h 58 m	Show
10* graded play on Utah as they host UCLA in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Utah will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at winning the game. UCLA may be ranked and has the 12th best statistical offense, but Utah at 3-1 has played a vastly more difficult schedule. They have defeated Nebraska on the road, but even that is a bit of stretch to qualify for a strong win. They had two other scrimmages against Nevada and New Mexico State. Now, they face a seasoned Utah team that has a very powerful offense too. UCLA has a stable of RB and will be getting back Thigpen for this game adding to their depth. Yet, I just don't agree with the line favoring UCLA and do strongly believe that Utah is the better team, especially on the defensive side. SIM shows a high projection calling for Utah to score 28+ points in this game. In past games, UCLA is just 5-10 ATS the past three seasons and 30-71 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?21-8 mark for 72.4% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered averaging a whopping +165 Dog play. Play on a home team using the money line (UTAH) that is off an upset win as an underdog and when playing on a Thursday. As we know Thursday is a showcase night with both teams having extra rest equating to a BYE week. Utah has had this extra time to prepare for UCLA and I am confident their defensive scheme will contain the UCLA attack. The history is not on the side of UCLA either as they have had a miserable time for the past 20 years facing very strong offensive teams. They are just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when facing excellent offensive teams averaging >=6.25 yards/play since 1992. Utah ranks 20th in the nation averaging 6.4 YPP and this has been against a much better schedule than UCLA, who ranks eighth in the nation averaging 7.1 YPP. Take Utah.
09-28-13	Texas A&M v. Arkansas +14.5	Top	45-33	Win	100	9 h 3 m	Show
10* graded play on Arkansas as they take on Texas A&M in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Arkansas has a very strong and improving ground attack. They rank 8th running 69% running plays, 47th averaging 4.6 YPC, 18th averaging 47 rushing attempts per game, and 29th averaging 217 rushing yards per game. I strongly believe that A&M is very vulnerable to the ground game and will be forced to bring 8 men into the box to try and stop this attack. This will set up man coverage on the perimeter and offer play action as a big gain play. A&M ranks 119th allowing 6.0 YPC and 99th allowing 211 rushing yards per game. Arkansas is a solid 1-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games facing excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game since 1992. A&M is just 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. SIM shows a very high probability that Arkansas will score 28 or more points. In past games, A&M is just 3-10 ATS the past three seasons and 20-65 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points. Take Arkansas.
09-28-13	LSU v. Georgia -3	Top	41-44	Push	0	5 h 39 m	Show
10* graded play on Georgia as they host LSU in a huge SEC showdown set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by 5 or more points. Georgia is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after outgaining previous opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Turnovers ebb and flow over the course of a season. Every year teams who have enjoyed early season turnover advantages will lose the turnover battle and fail to cover and win games. This has been the case at every level of CFB and Miles is just 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers as the coach of LSU. This is not to predict that LSU will be turnover prone, but rather there is a significant probability that Georgia will win the turnover battle or that turnovers will not be a factor. That situation clearly favors and supports Georgia. SIM shows that Georgia will score between 35 and 41 points. In past games, Georgia is 4-1 ATS the past three seasons and 23-4 ATS since 1992 when they have scored between 35 and 41 points. LSU is just 1-14 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed this range of points. Take Georgia.
09-28-13	South Carolina v. Central Florida +6.5	Top	28-25	Win	100	3 h 58 m	Show
10* graded play on the Central Florida as they host South Carolina in CFB action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UCF will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Both teams are coming off a BYE week so there is no advantage with rest for either team. However, I do believe the extra time UCF has had for preparation is a huge factor. Arguably this is one of the biggest games for the UCF program and by winning this game can take a big step forward in recruiting for next season and beyond. Here are some game situations supporting the play on UCF. They are a solid 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored since 1992. O'Leary is a great coach and will undoubtedly have his team completely ready for a big effort today. He is also 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992. A pivotal number in CFB has always been 28 points. The SIM shows a high probability that UCF will score 28 or more points in this game. In past games, they are 3-0 ATS this season, 14-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 60-22 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points. By contrast, SC is just 1-6 ATS the past three seasons and 18-61 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 points in a game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?37-7 mark using the ML and has made 28 units per unit wagered since 2002. Play on a home team using the money line (UCF) with a good scoring defense allowing 17 or less points/game and after a win by 3 or less points. Take UCF.
09-27-13	Middle Tennessee State v. BYU -23.5	Top	10-37	Win	100	10 h 60 m	Show
10* graded play on BYU as they host Middle Tennessee State in CFB action set to kick at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game by 27 or more points. With the big line, this portends to a complete physical mismatch on both sides of the ball. It is true, that BYU is in the sandwich game between Utah State and Utah, but that will have little impact on their focus to play extremely well tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?26-5 ATS mark for 84% winners since 1992. Play against road underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points (MIDDLE TENN ST) with an opportunistic defense forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game and after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Turnovers run in ebbs and flows and many times after a two+ game streak of enjoying the To edge, these teams will then be subject to a negative turnover position. Such is the game of football at any level. Moreover, this is a HUGE stretch in heightened competitive levels for MTS. They have played opponents vastly weaker than what they will experience tonight from BYU and they are on the road. The speed and athleticism that BYU brings to this game cannot be matched even remotely in MTS practices. SIm projects that BY will allow 14 or fewer points, will score more than 28 points, and will outgain MT by at least 200 offensive yards. In past games, BYU is 8-4 ATS the past three seasons and 57-16 ATS since 1992 when they allow 14 or fewer points. They are 11-3 ATS the past three years and 88-50 ATS since 1992 when the have scored 28+ points in a game. They are 8-2 ATS past 3 seasons and 41-10 ATS since 1992 when they have outgained an opponent by 200+ yards. MTS is 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 4-16 ATS since 1992 when they have been outgained by 200+ yards. Take BYU.
09-26-13	Iowa State +2.5 v. Tulsa	Top	38-21	Win	100	57 h 13 m	Show
10* graded play on the Iowa State as they take on Tulsa in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET and will be televised by Fox Sports 1. The simulator shows a high probability that Iowa State will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?24-5 mark for 83% winners since 2008. This system has averaged a +110 dog play and is also a very nice 14-3 over the past three seasons using the ML. Play on road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (IOWA ST) with 4 or fewer defensive starters returning. Simple to follow and very profitable. Here is a second system that has gone 23-6 for 79% winners since 2002 and has gone a perfect 6-0 making 6.7 units/unit wagered over the past five seasons. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (TULSA) after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game and is now matched in game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning. Tulsa returns just three starters on defense and this is the glaring advantage that I believe Iowa State will enjoy in this game. Iowa State QB Sam Richardson is nursing an ankle injury, but is listed as probable for this tilt. The Iowa State offense ranks 50th in the nation averaging 251 passing yards per game. Through 2 games, 12 different players have got balls with Richardson connecting on 44-of-71 pass attempts for 62% completions and a solid 139 QB rating. I certainly see the Iowa State offense being significantly better than Tulsa's offense and I believe the Iowa State defense is better as well. So, I get the better offense and the better defense and a DOG. Tulsa QB Cody Green is just 55-of-106 for 610 passing yards and a 105.8 QB rating. He is averaging just 5.76 YPP and has thrown 3 TD with 2 interceptions in three games. Take Iowa State.
09-21-13	Michigan v. Connecticut +18.5	Top	24-21	Win	100	27 h 29 m	Show
7* graded play on the Connecticut Huskies as they host the Michigan Wolverines in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, September 21. The simulator shows a high probability that UCONN will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?63-29 ATS mark for 69% winners since 1992. Play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (CONNECTICUT) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Experience in CFB is a huge factor in the outcome of games in the first month of the season. The team chemistry, particular on the OL where communication is paramount to the solid execution of the offensive scheme, is a significant advantage for any team. UCONN has gone to a hurry up offense after a very dismal season in 2012. They have returned 8 starters including their QB. T.J. Weist, and are executing the offense at a high level that I believe will cause Michigan fits on defense. SIM shows that UCONN will score between 22 and 28 points in this game. In past games, Michigan is just 1-6 ATS over the past three years and 12-36 ATS since 1992 when allowing this range of scoring. Take UCONN
09-21-13	Missouri v. Indiana +2.5	Top	45-28	Loss	-106	27 h 18 m	Show
10* graded play on Indiana as they take on Missouri in College Football action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Indiana Hoosiers will win this game. They are currently installed as 1 1/2 point dogs and I strongly believe this line will push towards pick-em. This normally would be a concern on a Thursday as I am writing this, but the movement has been generated by large 'smart money' wagers. In fact, 64% of all best being made are on Missouri, which would normally send the line higher. This is solid proof that the large bettor is on this game. Remember that the grading by the SIM is the dominant reason why are on any play. The research, game situations, systems, betting flows serve only to reinforce the play. We only have a small 3-game sample size, but Indiana has so far proved to have a very strong passing attack that currently ranks 11th in the nation averaging 7.4 yards-per-play and 10.1 yards-per-pass play. Missouri head coach, Pinkel, is just 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when facing excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/attempt. He is also just 16-26 ATS (-12.6 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Indiana has a well-balanced offensive attack that is going to be very tough for Missouri to contain. Here is a supporting system using the money line that has gone 23-5 for 82% winners and has made 23 units/unit wagered averaging a +120 DOG play since 2008. Play on a home team using the money line (INDIANA) that is an excellent offensive team gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing a team with an average defense allowing between 330 to 390 YPG and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in two consecutive games. Take the Indiana Hoosiers.
09-21-13	Auburn +17 v. LSU	Top	21-35	Win	100	27 h 13 m	Show
7* graded play on Auburn as they take on LSU in SEC Conference action set to start at 7:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will lose this game by fewer than 16 points. Auburn and LSU are both off to 3-0 starts with Auburn having played a vastly more difficult schedule. LSU is loaded with talent, but they have yet to play a 'real' competitor. They have beaten TCU, UAB, and Kent State. On eof my favorite plays is when a DOG, who has been seasoned by average to tough opponents is playing an elite team that has yet to play any meaningful games. The Speed of a competitive game cannot be replicated in practice and LSU has had essentially three scrimmages to date. Auburn has played Washington State Arkansas State and Mississippi State. Not Yop-10 opponents, but much more respected football programs than LSU's resume. SIM shows that Auburn will score at least 28 points. LS is just 11-50 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28+ points in a game. Auburn is also projected to gain average of 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. LSU is just 1-3 ATS the past three seasons and 10-22 ATS since 1992 in games where they allowed this range. Miles is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after outgaining opponents by 100 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games as the coach of LSU. I truly believe this game could be very close, so if there is a money line available I would recommend taking a stab in the dark and placing only a 1* amount to augment the 7* play. Take Auburn
09-21-13	North Carolina +7 v. Georgia Tech	Top	20-28	Loss	-115	18 h 58 m	Show
10* graded play on the North Carolina as they take on Georgia Tech in ACC action set to start at 12:00 Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UNC will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at getting a very important road conference win. I like playing this as a 10* getting the points and then add no more than a 2.5* amount using the money line. You may remember that these two programs met last year and engaged in the highest scoring game in ACC history. Georgia Tech won that game 68-50 and there is a bit of revenge for UNC entering this tilt. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?28-33 record for 46% winners and has made 51 units/unit wagered averaging a +300 DOG play since 1992. Play on a road team using the money line (N CAROLINA) that is an average offensive team scoring between 21 to 28 PPG and is now facing an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. I love these types of systems, but remember they only serve to reinforce the grading produced by the SIM. These systems are analogous to the very popular Black Jack casino game. However, the big difference is that in a casino you essentially get 1:1 odds save the 3:2 Black Jack payout. However, in this system you are getting paid an average of +300 per 'hand' played. So, based on this system, playing Black jack would have netted a loss of $500 playing $100 per hand. The system, though made you a big time winner producing a profit of $5100.00. More importantly, it underscores one of the most important handicapping tools I will always use and have learned over my 19 years of handicapping. DOGS must be identified as winners ATS. The betting flows show that more than 73% of all best placed are on Georgia Tech and anything above 70% shows an irrational exuberance by the public in thinking that Georgia Tech will easily win this game. My research clearly points the other way and I strongly believe UNC will win ATS. Best of Luck!
09-19-13	Clemson v. North Carolina State +14	Top	26-14	Win	100	54 h 51 m	Show
10* graded play on North Carolina State as they take on Clemson in ACC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that NC State will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Here are some game situations supporting NC State. Wolfpack are 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?40-14 ATS mark for 74% winners making 25 units/unit wagered since 1992. Play against road favorites (CLEMSON) that are good offensive teams gaining between 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and is now facing a team with an average defense allowing 4.8 to 5.6 YPP and after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Here is a second style that has gone 70-30 ATS for 70% winners since 1992. Play on a home team (NC STATE) that are off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less with the game taking place in the first month of the season. This system has gone 14-4 AYS over the past three seasons. Both teams have not played since September 7. Clemson defeated Georgia in Week 1 and then played a scrimmage against South Carolina State. The NC State defense has the ability to contain the Clemson ground game. They key is get the Tigers into second-and-long and third-and-long situations by getting a stop on first down. Another factor is that better than 75% of the bets being made have been on the Tigers. Whenever I get a reading of 70% or higher it is a red flag for the team being bet. Levels at 70% and above show an increasing irrational exuberance in betting any team, especially a ranked one like Clemson. Take North Carolina State
09-14-13	Wisconsin v. Arizona State -4	Top	30-32	Loss	-108	14 h 2 m	Show
10* graded play on Arizona State as they take on Wisconsin in CFB action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that ASU will win this game by 7 or more points. Wisconsin has played two vastly inferior foes outscoring them 93-0. However, they are taking a big step up playing PAC-12 power ASU tonight in the dessert heat. ASU played an inferior foe in Sacramento State last week, but they are at home and they are the ones that Wisconsin must try to contain and not the other way around. ASU runs a spread offense that has tremendous speed and quickness. That is a very tough assignment for Wisconsin to prepare for as the speed cannot be duplicated in practice sessions. This is reflected in the fact that ASU is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against Big 10 conference opponents since 1992. Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after scoring 42 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. HC Graham is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?73-30 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1992. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA ST) after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Here is a second system that ahs gone 66-30 ATS for 69% winners since 2002. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA ST) after a win by 35 or more points. SIm projects that ASU will gain an average of 5.0 to 5.5 total yards per play and will allow between 150 and 200 net passing yards. In past games ASU is 23-8 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 5.0 to 5.5 YPP and 5-1 ATS the past three seasons and 25-5 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 150 to 200 net passing yards. Take ASU.
09-14-13	Vanderbilt +14 v. South Carolina	Top	25-35	Win	100	10 h 12 m	Show
10* graded play on Vanderbilt as they take on South Carolina in SEC CFB action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Vanderbilt will lose this game by fewer than 11 points and has a shot at a shocking upset win. I like adding a 1* amount to the money line to take advantage of the possible upset. Vandy is a solid 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992; 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992. It will be the Vandy offense that will be the dominant force in this matchup. SIM shows a high probability that Vandy will score 28 or more points. In past games, they are 13-2 ATS the past three seasons and 40-12 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?96-40 mark for 71% winners since 1992. Play against a home team using the money line (S CAROLINA) after allowing 37 points or more last game and is now facing an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. Here is a second system that has gone 39-10 for 80% winners using the money line since 2002. Play against a home team using the money line (S CAROLINA) after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game and now facing opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. Both systems under score the high probability that SC will be taking this game for granted. They are coming off a bruising, highly emotional, and mentally exhausting loss to Georgia. Even with the great experience and coaching of Spurrier, it will be very difficult to get his team to take on this game with the same focus used last week against Georgia. Take Vanderbilt.
09-14-13	Tennessee +28.5 v. Oregon	Top	14-59	Loss	-110	23 h 3 m	Show
10* graded play on Tennessee as they take on Oregon in CFB action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by fewer than 28 points. The betting flows have steadily been on Oregon all week and I do believe working a line at 28 1/2 is worthwhile. Now, I do not believe we will need the 1/2 point at all, but it never hurts to work that extra 'hook' especially on major numbers like 28. This line opened at 21 and the public has pushed this number into the area of irrational exuberance. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?30-8 ATS mark for 79% winners since 2007. Play against any team (OREGON) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an excellent defensive team allowing <=16 PPG and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. almost half of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and 60% of the winners covered by 7 or more points. The Oregon defense ahs yet to be tested and I strongly believe that Tennessee will be able to orchestrate long time consuming scoring drives. They have two RB in Neal and Lane that are averaging better than 6.7 YPR combined for 7 TD. QB Worley is a solid decision maker and will be able to spread the ball around to as many as 7 WR/TE/RB. This will keep the Oregon defense on their heels and allow Tennessee to march down the field. Take the Volunteers.
09-14-13	New Mexico v. Pittsburgh -23	Top	27-49	Loss	-106	19 h 27 m	Show
10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take on new Mexico in CFB action set to start at 12:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by 24 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?42-9 ATS mark for 82.4% winners. 55% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and 64% of the winning plays covered by seven or more points. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (PITTSBURGH) off a bye week. Nothing like an additional week of practice and study to make for a very solid effort in the next game. This system is also on a 9-1 ATS tear the past three seasons. New Mexico defense will be no match for the Pittsburgh offense. The SIM projects that Panthers will average better than 10 net passing yards per attempt, will score more than 28 points, will gain 7.5 yards-per-play, and will allow between 200 and 250 yards. In past games, Pittsburgh is a solid 4-0 ATS over the past three seasons and 29-7 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 10 or more net passing yards per attempt. They are 6-3 ATS the past three seasons and 59-32 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points; 13-4 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed between 200 and 250 offensive yards and are 2-0 ATS the past three seasons and 11-1 ATS since 1992 when they have averaged 7.5 or more yards per play. Take Pittsburgh.
09-13-13	Air Force +24 v. Boise State	Top	20-42	Win	100	5 h 43 m	Show
10* graded play on Air Force as they take on Boise State in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that AF will lose this game by fewer than 21 points. Boise State is just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons; 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?29-7 ATS for 81% winners since 2002. Play on a road team (AIR FORCE) in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, returning an inexperienced QB and 5 or less offensive starters, in the first month of the season. 51.4% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. 65.5% of the winning plays covered by 7 or more points. Experience is a huge factor in the first month of the season and Boise is searching for chemistry and an identity. They were hammered by a strong Washington Huskie team and then last week beat up on a vastly inferior Tennessee-Martin football program. Those two games against extreme levels of competitiveness do little to help prepare Boise for this game against Air Force. Take the DOG!
09-12-13	Tulane +7 v. Louisiana Tech	Top	24-15	Win	100	9 h 12 m	Show
10* graded play on Tulane as they take on Louisiana Tech in CFB action set to start at 7:30 PM ET, Thursday, September 12, 2012. The simulator shows a high probability that Tulane will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game in upset fashion. I like playing this with an 8* amount using the line and a 2* amount using the money line. After guiding the nation's top offense in points (51.5 PPG) and yards (578 YPG), head coach Sonny Dykes moved onto Cal, allowing Skip Holtz to lead a heavily-depleted offense in the post-WAC era. However, they return just three starters on offense and just four on defense. Although Tulane was one of the worst teams in the nation and are coming off a horrid 2-10 season, I am expecting them to be far more competitive. They return nine on offense and will have to choose a QB starter between Devin Powell (4.5 YPA, 1 TD, 3 INT) and JUCO Nick Montana, son of Joe Montana. I'm not concerned on the starter given the 9 returning starters and their shared experience going up against a newly formed defense. LT HC Holtz is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after playing 2 straight non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?remarkable 24-16 mark for 60% winners using the money line and has made 39 units per unit wagered averaging a +230 DOG play. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (TULANE) that was a poor rushing team from last season averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards per carry and after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game. This system serves to support the grading produced by the SIMulator and confirms my belief that Tulane is the right play. Take Tulane.
09-07-13	Washington State +16 v. USC	Top	10-7	Win	100	14 h 1 m	Show
10* graded play on the Washington State Cougars as they take on the No. 25 ranked USC Trojans in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that WSU will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. WSU went on the road to play an SEC team and played well. They lost to Auburn 31-24 and covered as 14 point dogs. Turnover s were a huge part of the game and WSU had 3 to Auburns one. WSU was inside the Auburn 10 yard line when the game ended, so they truly did match Auburn stride for stride. What this was, was WSU
09-07-13	Texas -7 v. BYU	Top	21-40	Loss	-108	32 h 55 m	Show
10* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on BYU in CFB action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game by 10 or more points. The SIM shows a projections that Texas will score at least 28 points and will hold BYU to fewer than 20 points. In past games, BYU is a money burning 22-74 since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points and 11-27 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 29 to 35 points inclusive. BYU is 10-28 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 20 or fewer points. Other projections of equal value show that Texas will have between 100 and 150 rushing yards. In past games, Texas is a solid 8-0 ATS and 12-3 ATS when the score 28 or more points spanning games played over the past three seasons. Texas won 56-7 and covered as 43 points favorites. They amassed a balance attack of 715 yards with 359 gained on the ground and 356 gained through the air. They did have three turnovers and HC Mack Brown has a strong history of addressing those problems so they do not become a continued problem for the offense. In fact Brown is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers as the coach of TEXAS. BYU is coming off a tough loss at UVA 19-16 and failed to cover as 3 1/2 points favorites. Take the Longhorns!
09-07-13	North Texas +4.5 v. Ohio	Top	21-27	Loss	-110	30 h 16 m	Show
10* graded play on the North Texas as they take on Ohio University in CFB action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that North Texas will lose this game by fewer than four points and has a great shot at getting a significant road win against the Bobcats. North Texas returns 17 starts with 9 on offense and 8 on defense. Ohio returns just 5 starters on defense and I strongly believe that the North Texas offense will be able to consistently exploit the Ohio U defense and in particular their secondary. North Texas won big in Week 1 with a 40-6 drubbing of Idaho and easily covered as 16 1/2 point favorites. North Texas HC McCarney is a solid 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game in all games he has coached since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a win by 21 or more points in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?25-23 record using the Money Line and has made 43 units/unit wagered averaging a plus 265 DOG play since 2008. Play on road underdogs using the money line (NORTH TEXAS) after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game, returning 8+ offensive starters and is facing an opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters.

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