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College Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-14-10	South Florida Bulls +10.5 v. West Virginia Mountaineers	Top	6-20	Loss	-110	11 h 17 m	Show
15* graded play on South Florida as they take on West Virginia set to start at 7:30 and will be televised by ESPN and available on ESPN3. Add an optional 2* amount on the money line. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that SF will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. South Florida has had WVU
10-13-10	Central Florida v. Marshall +6	Top	35-14	Loss	-115	24 h 34 m	Show
15* graded play on Marshall as the take on University of Central Florida. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Marshall will lose this game by fewer than 6 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 37-12 ATS for 76% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games facing an opponent after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. UCF head coach O
10-09-10	Utah Utes v. Iowa State Cyclones +6	Top	68-27	Loss	-105	10 h 32 m	Show
25* graded play on Iowa State as they host (10) Utah set to start at 7 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Iowa State will lose this game by fewer than six points and has a tremendous opportunity to win the game. This is the first time that Utah has faced a Big-12 foe since 2004 and after this game they want to go another six seasons not playing a Big-12 opponent. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-15 for 74% winners since 1992. Play on a home team off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home dog in weeks 5 through 9. Here is a MONEY LINE system supporting my expectation for an upset win and has produced a 31-6 record for 84% winners since 1992. Don
10-08-10	Connecticut Huskies v. Rutgers Scarlet Knights +5.5	Top	24-27	Win	100	7 h 19 m	Show
15* graded play on Rutgers as they host UCONN set to start at 7:30 EST and will be televised by ESPN and ESPN3 on the internet. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Rutgers will lose this game by fewer than five points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-8 ATS for 79% winners since 2005. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less last game facing an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. Since being the head coach of Rutgers, Schiano has posted an 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after having lost two out of their last three games; 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) facing good teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. Supporting the upset bid is a money line system that has gone 59-28 and has made 37.3 units since 2000. Play on a home team using the money line off an upset loss as a favorite and with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season. Rutgers is off a horrid loss to Tulane 17-14 and were installed as 17 point favorites. Practice sessions this week involved some very upset coaches and Rutgers will play very well tonight on a national stage. *As an alternative play consider making tow bets with a 11 on the line and a 4* using the generous money line.** Take Rutgers.
10-05-10	Troy v. Middle Tenn State -3	Top	42-13	Loss	-110	30 h 13 m	Show
(Tuesday) 10* graded play on Middle Tennessee State (MTS) as they host Roy set to start at 8 EST Tuesday on ESPN2 and can be seen on ESPN3 as well. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that MTS will win this game by four or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-10 ATS for 77% winners since 2000. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a conference matchup that are excellent offensive teams scoring >=34 points per game and now facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG. The simulator also shows a high probability that MTS will score more than 28 points. Note that in past games they are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last two seasons. They are also 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last two seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last two seasons. MTS is off a very strong conference win defeating LA-Lafayette 34-14 as two point favorites. Note that since Stockstill was hired as the head coach of MTS he is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. The crowd will be up for this game since it is on ESPN2 and the students are advising everyone to wear
10-02-10	Florida Gators +8.5 v. Alabama Crimson Tide	Top	6-31	Loss	-110	11 h 34 m	Show
15* graded play on Florida as they take on Alabama in a big showdown of top ranked teams. Florida comes in to this road game ranked number-7 while Alabama is ranked best team in the land. That may all change here based on my research. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Florida will lose this game by fewer than eight points and has a reasonable opportunity to win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 70-30 for 70% winners since 2000. Play against home favorites off 2 consecutive road wins in weeks 5 through 9. Here is a money line system supporting the upset Gator bid that has produced a 42-14 mark for 75% winners since 2005. Play on a road team versus the money line off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival and is undefeated on the season. I also see this being a high scoring game and one that Florida will score more than 28 points. Note that this is a very pivotal number for both teams noting Alabama is just 7-34 against the money line (-49.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 41-8 against the money line (+26.0 Units) in road games when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Florida is also 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing strong teams that are outscoring opponents by 10+ points per game on the season over the last three seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons. Perhaps the most important angle is this one that shows how Meyer prepares his team when in the role of an underdog. He is an astounding 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1992. It will be the Florida offense that will shine big in this game in my opinion. I like the Gator version of the Wildcat using Trey Burton, who scored five touchdowns in last week
10-02-10	Michigan v. Indiana +10	Top	42-35	Win	100	7 h 54 m	Show
15* graded play on Indiana as they take on Michigan set to start at 3:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Indiana will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Both teams start their Big-10 conference schedule undefeated and this game is going to be far closer than most expect. Michigan
10-02-10	Ohio State v. Illinois +17	Top	24-13	Win	100	14 h 31 m	Show
25* graded play on Illinois as they take Ohio State set to start at Noon EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Illinois will lose this game by fewer than 16 points. Ohio State travels to Champagne, Illinois, where they have not lost since 1991, to start their conference season. The Buckeyes are off to a strong 4-0 start covering all four games and all four playing
10-01-10	BYU v. Utah State +4.5	Top	16-31	Win	100	8 h 49 m	Show
15* graded play on Utah State as they host BYU set to start Friday night starting at 8 EST and will be televised on ESPN and can be viewed on the internet at ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Utah State will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Utah State has a big advantage on offense returning eight starters including their quarterback. This experience and leadership matches up very well against a BYU defense returning just five starters. Utah State will establish the run and the model shows that they will gain more than 150 yards on the ground. Note that in past games BYU is just 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards since 1992. BYU is also just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) facing mistake prone teams getting called for 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half last game since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after having lost three out of their last four games over the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-14 using the MONEY LINE and has made 29.6 units since 2005. Play on a home team using the money line after one or more consecutive losses against the spread and in a game involving two bad teams winning between 25% to 40% of their games. Take Utah State.
09-30-10	Texas A&M +3 v. Oklahoma State	Top	35-38	Push	0	25 h 2 m	Show
25* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on Oklahoma State set to start at 7:30 EST and will be televised by ESPN. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas A&M will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent opportunity to win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-8 ATS for 80% winners since 1992. Play on any team after allowing 275 or less total yards in two consecutive games and with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. Texas A&M returns nine on defense while Oklahoma State returns just four starters. A&M also returns seven offensive starters including the quarterback and this leader and experience is a huge advantage going up against an inexperienced Oklahoma State secondary. Since Gundy became the head coach of the Cowboys he is just 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) versus good rushing defenses allowing <=3.25 rushing yards per carry. Here is a money line system that has produced an excellent record of 23-6 making 21.7 units for 79% winners since 2005. Play on a road team versus the money line with a good passing defense allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in three straight games. Oklahoma State leads the nation in yards per game and has the No.1 receiver in Justin Blackmon and NO. 3 passer in Brandon Weedan, BUT this team nearly lost to Troy 41-38. Texas A&M brings a vastly under rated defense to this game and they will shut down the running game. This in turn takes away the option for play action pass and to get Blackmon in favorable man coverage situations. I do not see A&M needing to bring the safety to the line of scrimmage for run support. Let
09-25-10	Oregon Ducks v. Arizona State Sun Devils +11.5	Top	42-31	Win	100	13 h 58 m	Show
15* graded play on Arizona State as they host (5) Oregon set to start at 10:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that ASU will lose this game by 11 or fewer points and also has a reasonable shot at the upset of number 5 ranked Oregon. ASU head coach Erickson is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games versus good rushing defenses allowing <=120 rushing yards per game in all games he has coached since 1992; 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 20-8 for 71% winners against the money line making 22.4 units since 2005. Play against a road team versus the money line after allowing 3.25 or less yards per play in their previous game and with eight defensive starters returning. Here is another money line system that has produced a 21-8 record for 72.4% winners since 2000. Play against a road team in September using the money line after 2 straight covers as a double digit favorite. ASu quarter Threet is 6-5 and he has a very quick release and will completely neutralize the speed advantage that oregon has on the defensive perimeter. If Oregon brings pressure then Threet can easily throw to the flat to hit a RB or a better option is to hit Aaron Pflugrad in space or defended by a slower linebacker. The ASU tackles can make certain they have inside protection and give a shove outward to the defensive ends. Draw plays will have huge lanes with which to scoot through. ASU can win this game. Take ASU with the points.
09-25-10	UCLA +16.5 v. Texas	Top	34-12	Win	100	7 h 21 m	Show
25* graded play on UCLA as they take on Texas set to start at 3:30 EST and will be televised on ABC TV and seen on in the internet at ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will lose this game by fewer than 15 points. Texas may have put up good numbers last week against Texas Tech, but they are going to have their hands full with UCLA and head ocah Neuheisel
09-24-10	TCU Horned Frogs v. SMU Mustangs +17.5	Top	41-24	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
20* graded play on SMU as they take on TCU set to start at 8 EST Friday. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 63-29 for 69% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites that are excellent rushing teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards per carry and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in two straight games. SMU has played a tough schedule in their first three games and this prepares them well to compete against number 4 TCU. SMU HC Jones is a near perfect 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992. SMU will run the ball successfully and this in turn will setup solid play action pass opportunities down the seams. SMU quarterback Kyle Padron is a vastly under rated and executed extremely well against Washington State last week. TCU is going to have problems defending the run and WR Aldrick Robinson. TCU runs a somewhat rare 4-2-5 defensive scheme using three safeties. They are aggressive and will show multiple looks to confuse Padron. The read he needs to make to is to identify where free safety Jejay Johnson is lined up. If he is closing in towards the line of scrimmage for run support than Padron can look for crossing routes. If he is back, then a check off to a running play or attacking the perimeter with
09-23-10	Miami (Florida) v. Pittsburgh +4	Top	31-3	Loss	-110	22 h 23 m	Show
10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they take on Miami (Fla) set to start at 7:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will lose this game by fewer than three points and has a solid chance to win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 45-14 making 34.8 units and 76.3% winners since 2005. Play on a home teams on Thursday nights using the money line after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. Here is a second money line system that has produced a 50-14 mark for 78.1% winners and has made 36.8 units since 2000. Play on a home team using the money line after out gaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game and returning 5 or less offensive starters with a new starting QB in the first month of the season. Here is a third money line system that has gone 26-10 making 20.6 units for 72.2% winners since 2005. Play on a home teams in non conference games using the money line in a game involving two average passing teams gaining between 6.4-7.5 passing yards per attempt. The simulator also shows a high probability that Pittsburgh will score more than 28 points and this puts Miami in a horrid role. Miami is just 9-39 ATS (-33.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Take Pittsburgh.
09-18-10	Clemson Tigers v. Auburn Tigers -7	Top	24-27	Loss	-110	10 h 54 m	Show
15* graded play on Auburn as they host Clemson set to start at 7 EST and will be televised on ESPN and on the internet at ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by more than seven points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 41-15 ATS for 73% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points and are average passing teams gaining between 175 to 230 passing yards per game facing an average passing defense allowing 175 to 230 passing yards per game and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. The most important matchup in this game is between Auburn quarterback Cameron Newton matched up against Clemson safety DeAndre McDaniel. At 6
09-18-10	Connecticut v. Temple +6	Top	16-30	Win	100	13 h 26 m	Show
15* graded play on Temple as they take on UCONN set to start at 1 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than five points and has an excellent shot at winning this game. if you like the upset bid consider splitting the bet into two parts with a 10* amount getting the points and a 5* amount on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-6 ATS for 82% winners since 2005. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less last game facing an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. Since becoming the head coach of Temple, Golden is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a home underdog. Here is a money line system that has gone 38-5 for 88.4% winners making 33.2 units since 2000. Play on a home team versus the money line and is a good team from last season having outscored opponents by 7 or more points per game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning in games played during the first month of the season. Temple is a solid 7-1 against the money line (+6.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons. Take the Owls.
09-18-10	Northern Illinois +7 v. Illinois	Top	22-28	Win	100	4 h 5 m	Show
15* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Illinois set to start at Noon EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Northern Illinois will lose this game by seven or fewer points and has an excellent opportunity to win the game. Consider an alternative wager splitting the 15* amount into two parts with a 11* getting the points and a 4* on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-7 ATS for 83.3% winners since 2000. Play against a home team that is a poor passing defense from last season allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse and with 5 offensive starters returning. Here is a second system that has gone 28-7 ATS for 80% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season and after closing out last season with two or more straight losses and had a winning record last season. Illinois is coming off an easy 35-3 win over Southern Illinois and led by points 18 points at the half 21-3. Illinois is just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half since 1992.
09-17-10	California v. Nevada +3	Top	31-52	Win	100	12 h 54 m	Show
10* graded play on Nevada as they host California set to start at 10 EST and will televised on ESPN2 and can viewed on the interest at ESPN3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Nevada will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a Money Line System that has produced a record of 38-5 making 33.2 units since 2000. Play on a home team versus the money line and is a good team from last season having outscored opponents by 7 or more points per game and with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Here is a second system that has gone 24-3 making 89% winners since 2005. Play on a home team versus the money line after out gaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game and with 9 or more offensive starters returning in the first month of the season. I also see Nevada gaining more than 200 yards in this game. California is just 4-15 against the money line (-15.7 Units) when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards since 1992. Take Nevada.
09-16-10	Cincinnati +2 v. North Carolina State	Top	19-30	Loss	-105	23 h 58 m	Show
25* graded play on Cincinnati as they take on NC State set to start at 7:30 EST and will be televised by ESPN. It will also be viewable on the internet at ESPN's espn3 site. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Cincinnati will win this game. Cincinnati has been somewhat inconsistent on offense so far this season. yet, last week they ran the bak very well against Indiana State. Indiana State is not of the caliber of NC State, but it game the offensive line the game reps it needed to really work into the game. There has been talk of the new faces on offense an a necessary adjustment period until they get up to full speed. They do, however, have three returning linemen, both running backs, two wide receivers, and a tight end. Junior quarter Zach Collaras will pick apart the NC State cover-2. I feel strongly that NC State will have to bring pressure and when they do Cincinnati will have excellent passing opportunities in man or
09-11-10	Michigan v. Notre Dame -3	Top	28-24	Loss	-115	6 h 12 m	Show
15* graded play on Notre Dame as they host Michigan set to start at 3:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Notre Dame will win this game by four or more points. Notre Dame has returned nine starters on defense and they will dominate this game. Michigan will have difficulty moving the ball consistently and executing long time consuming scoring drives. This game has the potential to be a blowout with Notre Dame gaining 250 more yards on offense than Michigan. The mode also projects that ND will pass for more than nine yards per attempt. Note that Michigan is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons; 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when they are out gained by their opponents by 2 or more yards per play since 1992. ND is a solid 29-8 ATS (+20.2 Units) when they out gain their opponents by 2 or more yards per play since 1992. The Michigan offensive line is slimmed down from last year and demonstrated last week that they are quick and focus on angle blocking in their game against Connecticut. However, the ND defense and in particular their linebackers have had time to prepare for the Michigan offense hat includes direct snap draw plays to Robinson. ND linebackers are physical enough to shed blockers and minimize angles to neutralize and trap Robinson at the Line of scrimmage. ND will shut this down. Take Notre Dame.
09-11-10	South Florida +16.5 v. Florida	Top	14-38	Loss	-110	18 h 42 m	Show
15* graded play on South Florida as they take on state rival Florida set to start at 12:20 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that South Florida will lose this game by fewer than 14 points and has an opportunity to pull off the improbable upset. If you like the upset idea then consider playing 12* amount on the line and a 3* amount on the money line. The Tim Tebow era is very hard to forget for Gator fans especially after one of the worst offensive displays last week against Miami of Ohio under head coach Urban Meyer. The Gators committed eight fumbles losing three of them and had gained 25 total yards offense with minus 16 rushing through the first three quarters. The negative rushing yardage was attributed to several extremely poor snaps from new starting center Mike Pouncey, who was moved to center after playing guard last season. He had one snap that was several feet over the head of new quarterback John Brantley. In addition, this offensive unit had just one starter, left guard James Wilson, in the same position he played season. The offense needs to improve quickly and correct all the mistakes from this past week. This is too much to ask when facing a rising intra-state rival in South Florida. If not for four interceptions including a 67 interception return for a touchdown the Florida game would have been far closer than the 34-12 final indicates. South Florida had a strong game last week, but is was against a FCS Stoney Brook team. They did start off slow trailing at one point 14-7, but then cleared the rust and got things rolling. They return 10 starters including their quarterback Daniels and that will certainly serve them well in this game and a Florida defense that has several weaknesses. Holtz is in his first season at South Florida and is a solid 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a dog in all games he has coached since 1992. If you are thinking possible upset and will want some action on the money line then check out this system that has gone just 45-110 for 29% winners, but has made an incredible 127.8 units since 2000. Play on dogs of +315 or higher versus the money line after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. The average play has been a DOG of +529 that has won 29% of the games. An amazing system and one that you can trust to make you more money as games qualify. Take South Florida.
09-10-10	West Virginia v. Marshall +13	Top	24-21	Win	100	11 h 4 m	Show
10* graded play on Marshall as they host West Virginia set to start at 7 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Marshall will lose this game by fewer than 12 points. The
09-06-10	Maryland v. Navy -6.5	Top	17-14	Loss	-110	21 h 21 m	Show
15* graded play on Navy as they take on Maryland set to start at 4 EST Monday. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Navy will win this game by seven or more points. Many returns eight including their starting QB from last year and this a significant advantage for them during the first several weeks of the season. Maryland struggled big tie on defense last season allowing 31 PPG and are returning just five defensive starters. I feel strongly that Navy, led by senior QB Ricky Dobbs, will be able to attack this highly suspect defense. Dobbs set a school record with 27 TD
09-05-10	SMU +14.5 v. Texas Tech	Top	27-35	Win	100	18 h 37 m	Show
10* graded play on SMU as they take on Texas tech set to start at 3:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. SMU returns eight starters on offense including the QB and that is a significant advantage in this game. The simple fact that they have played extensively together for a least one full season provides a chemistry and cohesiveness that allows for a strong form of play. Their QB Kyle Padron barely has two fully seasons of football experience and only got the opportunity to play due to an injury. He won win five of his six starts, finished fifth in the country in passer rating and set a new school record for passing yards in a single game while picking up MVP honors in the Mustangs' first bowl victory in 25 years. His leadership will be evident in this game and throughout the season. I see this game as potentially an upset winner too so consider splitting the wager between a 11* amount on the line and a 4* amount on the money line. This system has gone a perfect 5-0 over the past three seasons and has produced a 28-16 winning mark making 27.6 units since 1992. Play on a road team using the money line ion the first 2 weeks of the year after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Take SMU.
09-04-10	Washington State Cougars +17.5 v. Oklahoma State Cowboys	Top	17-65	Loss	-105	5 h 26 m	Show
15* graded play on Washington State as they take on Oklahoma State set to start at 7 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that WSU will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. WSU had a very poor 1-11 season in 2009, but this season is going to be far different. They return eight starters including the QB this season and just the fact that they have played together for an extended period of time is a big time advantage in the first several weeks of the season. They will be going against a rebuilding year for OSU, who returns just four starters on offense and four on defense. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 26-5 ATS for 84% winners since 1992. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points in the first month of the season that is an terrible offensive team from last season scoring 14 or less points per game and with an experienced QB returning as starter. Take Washington State
09-03-10	Arizona -16.5 v. Toledo	Top	41-2	Win	100	7 h 17 m	Show
10* graded play on Arizona as they take on Toldeo set to start at 8 ET Friday September 3. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game by more than 17 points. The most significant factor for this game is that Arizona returns eight starters on offense including the QB. That experience of playing together as a unit is invaluable during the first several weeks of the CFB season. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-8 ATS for 80% since 2000. Play against home dogs in non-conference games that are good passing teams from last season that averaged 255 or more passing yards per game. The simulator also shows a high probability that Arizona will gain more than 6.5 yards per play. Toledo is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Take Arizona.
09-02-10	Pittsburgh Panthers v. Utah Utes -3	Top	24-27	Push	0	9 h 41 m	Show
15* graded play on Utah as they take on 15th ranked Pittsburgh set to start at 8:30 EST and will be televised on VERSUS. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Utah will win this game by more than three points. Utah returns eight offensive starters including the QB, which is a huge advantage for any team in the first several weeks of the season. It is the fact that the OL and QB have significant playing experience and that cohesiveness is a dominant force on the playing field. On the other side of the line of scrimmage is an offense that has a red shirt starting QB and just five returning starters. I fully expect this unit to struggle against the Utah defense. Utah can run multiple looks and likes to bring pressure from several different angles and launch points. Although Pittsburgh has shown creativity offensively it will be difficult to execute with an inexperienced QB at the helm. Considering these fundamental assessments and the model projections that Pitt will not gain more than 200 net passing yards places Utah into a solid game situation. They are 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-4 ATS on the MONEY LINE for 89% winners since 2000. Play on a home team versus the money line that is a good team from last season and outscored opponents by 7 or more points per game and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning from last year
01-07-10	Texas +4.5 v. Alabama	Top	21-37	Loss	-110	20 h 29 m	Show
First, I would like to thank each and everyone of you for another successful CFB season. I appreciate your support and loyalty and I promise to provide even better research in 2010 that will enable all of us to win even more dough. With that said, make a commitment now to get all of my plays in ALL SPORTS. I am entering my 17th year of sports handicapping and with each passing year gain more experience and knowledge that I can pass on to you and provide you with the information you need to win. My 26-11-1 ATS bowl run is a sound example. Next up the NFL play-offs and then one of my All-time favorites March Madness. Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Texas as they take on Alabama in the BCS Championship game slated to start at 8:10 and will take place in Pasadena in the Rose Bowl. AiS shows an 88% probability that Texas will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and an 80% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 23-19 against the MONEY LINE and has made a whopping 45.7 units since 1992. Play against neutral field favorites versus the money line and is a dominant team out gaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. What makes this an exceptional system is that the average play has been a +281 dog. Here is a 2nd money line system that has produced a 20-10 record for 67% winners and has made 29.5 units since 1992. Play on neutral field dogs versus the money line that are average rushing teams gaining 3.5 to 4.3 YPR facing a team with an excellent rushing defense allowing <=3 YPR and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The average play of this system has been a +198 DOG. AiS also shows a 92% probability that Texas will score 22 to 28 points. Note that Alabama is just 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992. Ingram is going to find it very tough going against the Texas defensive front. AiS shows a 90% probability that Alabama sill gain 3 to 3.5 yards per rush. Note that Texas is a solid 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when they allow 3 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt since 1992.
01-06-10	Troy +3 v. Central Michigan	Top	41-44	Push	0	8 h 7 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Troy as they take on Central Michigan in the GMAC Bowl set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that Troy will win this game. There are a series of game dependent angles that support Troy in this game. Let
01-05-10	Iowa +5.5 v. Georgia Tech	Top	24-14	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on IOWA as they take on Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl set to start 8:20 EST. AiS shows an 87% probability that Iowa will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. GT runs the spread offense and this plays into the strengths of the Iowa defense. AiS shows a 95% probability that GT will have less than 150 net passing yards. Note that Iowa is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. Iowa is also a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus excellent rushing teams that are averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after scoring and allowing 17 or less points over the last 2 seasons. Iowa has had weeks to prepare for this game and GT
01-04-10	Boise St v. TCU -7	Top	17-10	Loss	-100	9 h 16 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on TCU as they take on Boise State set to start at 8:10 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that TCU will win this game by 8 points. AiS shows a 90% probability that Boise State will gain between 100 and 150 rushing yards. Note that TCU is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they allow 100 to 150 rushing yards over the last 2 seasons. AiS shows a 92% probability that TCU will score 28 or more points. TCU is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after out gaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games this season; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons. Patterson is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in 2 straight games as the coach of TCU. Both QB
01-02-10	Michigan State +8 v. Texas Tech	Top	31-41	Loss	-115	10 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on MSU as they take on Texas Tech set to start at 9:00 EST in the Alamo Bowl taking place in San Antonio. AiS shows an 84% probability that MSU will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Turnovers will be a big factor in this game and the AiS shows a 92% probability that TT will have more turnovers than MSU. Note that MSU is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when their defense forces 3 turnovers since 1992. AiS shows an 80% probability that TT will have 3 turnovers. TT is just 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) in road games when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. I have no problem adding a 3* amount to this play on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-32 against the money line making 33.6 units since 1999. Play against neutral field favorites versus the money line in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences and with an inexperienced QB as starter. I am also playing against an inexperienced play calling coach as well. Leech had a feel for his team and is a great game coach. To now have an assistant take over that responsibility and the pressure associated with it will lead to poor decisions and poor execution. MSU has several suspensions due to a campus fight, but they have depth and their best receiver Blair White will enjoy significant advantages in man coverage. MSU is going to contain the TT pass rush and their DE Sharpe and Howard. Take MSU.
01-02-10	Northern Illinois +7 v. South Florida	Top	3-27	Loss	-110	15 h 10 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Northern Illinois in the International Bowl taking place in Toronto Canada. AiS shows an 85% probability that NI will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a 54% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-8 ATS for 80% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. South Florida is not a disciplined team as evidence by the large amount of called penalties against them. Note that NI is a solid 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) versus mistake prone teams -getting nailed for 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992. Huskies run defense is a strong part of their scheme. In order to weaken that strength SF will use a lot of spread formations. NI, however, has had a month to prepare for this game to design defensive alignments that will minimize and confuse the SF offensive line. Red shirt freshman Daniels has had his growing pains this year, and is still having trouble recognizing coverages fast enough in order to read to whom the ball should be thrown. In using new and varied looks pre-snap, NI will be able to literally get in the head of Daniels and he may be more worried about where the pressure may come from than making his post snap reads. Take Northern Illinois. Ai Simulator 5* graded play on UNDER Northern Illinois/South Florida. AiS shows a 75% probability that 49 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-9 ATS for 80% winners since 2004. Play under with any team against the total in non-conference games and off 2 straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more. 82% probability that neither team will score 21 or more points based on the AiS projections. Take the UNDER.
01-01-10	Cincinnati +13 v. Florida	Top	24-51	Loss	-105	9 h 19 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Cincinnati as they face Florida in the Sugar Bowl set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Cincinnati will lose this game by 12 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 106-49 ATS since 1999. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games facing an opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. As you will see, my research, shows that the Cincinnati secondary will do an excellent job at containing at containing Tebow and company. AiS shows a 92% probability that Cincinnati will allow 200 to 250 net passing yards. Note that Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. AiS shows a 90% probability that Cincinnati will rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per carry. Note that Cincinnati is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. Cincinnati is a near perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a top-level team sporting a win percentage of > 75%) over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Cincinnati WR Gilyard matches up well against Florida. Florida will press him at the LOS, but his quickness will elude many of these bumps. Once free he will be wide open in Florida
01-01-10	LSU v. Penn St. +1	Top	17-19	Win	100	3 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Penn State as they take on LSU playing in the Capitol One Bowl game set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 79% probability that PSU will win this game. AiS also shows a 90% probability that PSU will out gain LSU by 100 to 150 total yards. Note that PSU is a rock solid 15-1 against the money line (+15.6 Units) when they are out gain their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 69-33 for 68% winners since 1992. Play on any team off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival facing an opponent off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less. LSU is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. Miles is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season as the coach of LSU. PSU will establish the run early. LSU has a great DT in Woods, who can clog up the interior, but the linebackers take far too long to shed blocks and are overly aggressive. This matches up well against PSU RB Royster, who is a very patient runner allowing blocks to take place before bursting through holes. Misdirection running plays will help contain the LSU perimeter defense and then that of course sets up play action pass plays. PSU offensive line is on the best in the nation at pass protection and pick-up blitz schemes extremely well. LSU does have advantages on the perimeter when on offense, but PSU is one of the best pass rushing units in the nation. They got 35 sacks and LSU QB Jefferson has had trouble with pressure all season. Pressuing Jefferson negates any vertical routes. Take PSU.
01-01-10	Northwestern +9 v. Auburn	Top	35-38	Win	100	12 h 26 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Northwestern as they take on Auburn in the OutBack Bowl starting at 11:00 EST taking place at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. AiS shows an 80% probability that Northwestern will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Northwestern is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons; 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992. Auburn is a series weak situations noting they are just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games off 2 straight losses against conference rivals since 1992; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after a game where they forced no turnovers since 1992. The Northwestern offense will be able to move the ball in long ball control drives. Their offensive scheme is designed to take advantage of short underneath passes and this forces Auburn to have 5 defenders underneath and 2 safeties in a dominant cover-2 scheme. Although NW WR do not have game breaking speed, a series of successful underneath routes will set-up the
12-31-09	Stanford v. Oklahoma -10	Top	27-31	Loss	-105	15 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Stanford in the Sun Bowl set to start at 2:00 EST. AiS shows an 87% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 11 or more points. AiS also shows a 92% probability that Oklahoma will score 28 or more points. Note that the Sooners are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Oklahoma is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons; 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game as the coach of Oklahoma. The Oklahoma offense will have no trouble moving the ball and scoring points. Oklahoma will have great advantages on the perimeter no matter the defensive scheme. Stanford CB Evans, Bademosi, and Sherman will have major difficulties covering the Sooner WR corp. The Sooners have advantages in size and speed. All of the Sooner WR are quite dangerous after the catch and this is Stanford
12-31-09	Air Force +5 v. Houston	Top	47-20	Win	100	24 h 26 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Air Force as they take on Houston set to start at NOON EST 12/31/2009. This the 2009 edition of the Armed Forces Bowl taking place at Ft. Worth Texas. AiS shows an 80% probability that Air Force will lose this game by 5 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-17 for 71% ATS winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a road favorite and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. AiS shows a 92% probability that Air Force will gain 300 or more rushing yards. Note that Houston is a miserable 4-19 ATS (-16.9 Units) when they allow 300 or more rushing yards since 1992. Houston is also just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after out gaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. This is an interesting matchup with the best FBS offense against the best passing defense. Air Force has had a month to prepare for this game and they will certainly bring blitzes from all areas and give different looks that will have a major effect on Houston
12-30-09	Bowling Green v. Idaho +1	Top	42-43	Win	100	19 h 3 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Idaho as they take on Bowling Green in the Humanitarian Bowl set to start at 4:30 and taking place at Bronco Stadium in Boise Idaho. AiS shows a 79% probability that Idaho will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-13 for 71% winners on the money line since 2004. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game facing an opponent after being out gained by opposition by 125 or more total yards last game. AiS shows a 92% probability that Idaho will gain a minimum of 9 net passing yards per attempt. Note that Bowling Green is just 1-6 against the money line (-7.6 Units) when they allow 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. 96% probability that Idaho will score 28 or more points. BG is just 18-42 ATS (-28.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Idaho will show some new looks and wrinkles on defense with the single goal of making BG QB Sheehan hold onto the ball long enough to make mistakes. Idaho
12-29-09	Wisconsin +4 v. Miami (Florida)	Top	20-14	Win	100	7 h 5 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on the Hurricanes in the Champs Bowl set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Wisconsin will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 19-13 against the MONEY LINE making 24.3 units since 1999. Play on a neutral field dogs versus the money line in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences and with an experienced QB versus opponent with inexperienced QB. Miami has a trio of solid running backs, who share the carries, but this running game is goig to have difficulty getting started. Keep an eye on Wisconsin DT Stehle, who weighs in at 310 pounds can stuff the interior running game and will require consistent double teams. As Badger fans we want him to be double teamed as that will free up the LB corp to fill gaps and make stops at the LOS. Wisconsin is excellent and pressuring QB and forcing them into mistakes and the matchups favor that today as well. Wisconsin
12-29-09	UCLA -4.5 v. Temple	Top	30-21	Win	100	4 h 29 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on UCLA as they take on Temple in the Eagle Bank Bowl set to start at 4:30 EST at RFK Stadium in Washington DC. AiS shows an 80% probability that UCLA will win this game by 6 or more points. Strength of schedule is a big factor as UCLA opponent
12-26-09	North Carolina +3 v. Pittsburgh	Top	17-19	Win	100	6 h 5 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on North Carolina as they take on Pittsburgh in the Meinecke Car Care Bowl set to start at 4:30 and taking place in Charlotte, North Carolina. AiS shows a 77% probability that UNC will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 63% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 28-6 for 82% ATS winners sine 1992. Play against any team in non-conference games that is a good passing team gaining 7.5-8.3 PYA facing a poor passing team gaining 5.6-6.4 PYA and after 7+ games. AiS shows an 88% probability of gaining 150 to 200 net passing yards. Note that Pittsburgh is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. UNC is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good rushing defenses allowing <=120 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. HC Butch Davis is a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached since 1992. UNC will win this game with a pounding running game led by Ryan Houston. I expect him to get at least 25 touches and he has the size and strength to wear down a defensive front. Although UNC has not had success in the passing game, they do have a very talented QB in Yates. HOWEVER, with the pounding running game, Yates will have the opportunity to call audibles simply by reading the position of the safeties. Pitt defense will have to show it
12-26-09	Ohio v. Marshall +3	Top	17-21	Win	100	14 h 2 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Marshall as they take on Ohio University set to start at 1:00 EST. This is the 2009 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. AiS shows a 78% probability that Marshall will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 62% probability of winning the game. As an optional and alternative wager, I like a 5* on the line and a 2* amount on the money line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 100-51 for 66% winners against the money line since 2004. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 that is an average rushing team gaining 3.5 to 4.3 YPR facing a team with an average rushing defense allowing 3.5 to 4.3 YPR. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 31-10 against the money line since 1999. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 and is an average rushing team gaining 3.5 to 4.3 YPR facing an average rushing defense allowing 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and after 7+ games and after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 31-13 against the money line making 17.5 units since 2004. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after being out gained by opponent by 125 or more total yards last game. Let;s take a look at the a few fundamental key matchups heavily favoring Marshall in this game. Marshall has a huge edge when on offense and it starts with the OL. Ohio has had trouble stopping the run especially on the perimeter. Their ends just don
12-24-09	SMU +13 v. Nevada	Top	45-10	Win	100	10 h 48 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on SMU as they take on Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 77% probability that SMU will lose this game by 11 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-9 ATS since 1999 for 77% winners. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in non-conference games and is a good team winning between 60% to 80% playing a team with a winning record. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 119-64 ATS for 65% winners since 1999. Play against any team off a road cover where the team lost as a dog and with a winning record on the season. Based on the AiS projections to the key number to look for is 28 points scored by SMU. AiS shows a 90% probability that SMU will score 28 in this game. Note that SMU is a solid 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Nevada, however, is just 0-52 ATS (-27.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Fundamentally, Nevada has rushed the ball twice as much as they throw for the season and the same will occur in this game. Luke Lippincott is one of three 1000 yard rushers for Nevada, but will be out for this game. Nevada still has the personnel to be successful running the ball. It is where play action pass occur that I believe SMU does have the advantage and the opportunity for interceptions. Nevada simply shows various formations (pistol, misidrection, and I) and challenges a team to stop any of them. When QB Kaepernick lines up about 4 yards behind center and RB Taua 3 to 4 yards behind him you will now that is the pistol. Often times they have the WR in motion. SMU has had trouble stopping the run and I do not expect them to be able to slow them down in this game, but SMU has an even greater advantage on offense with their passing game. Nevada simply does not have anyone that cover the SMU WR
12-22-09	BYU +3 v. Oregon State	Top	44-20	Win	100	8 h 13 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on BYU as they take on Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl set to start at 8:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 28-8 ATS for 78% winners since 1999. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road cover where the team lost as a dog and with a winning record on the season. 88% probability that BYU will score 28 or more points. Note that BYU is a solid 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992 while Oregon State is 25-55 ATS (-35.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. OSU is also 1-7 against the money line (-7.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Here is a solid MONEY LINE system that has gone 24-9 ATS for 73% winners since 2004. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 that is an average rushing team gaining 3.5 to 4.3 YPR against an average rushing defense allowing 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and after 7+ games and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. one of the most important matchups in this game is between BYU
12-20-09	Middle Tenn St +4 v. Southern Mississippi	Top	42-32	Win	100	50 h 35 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Middle Tennessee state as they take on Southern Mississippi set to start at 8:15 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that MTST will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 63% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 117-64 since 1999. Play against any team off a road cover where the team lost as an dog and with a winning record on the season. Also supported and reinforcing this play is a series of game dependent angles working in favor of Middle Tenn. State. Note that they are a near perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a win by 17 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins this season. MDTST HC Stockstill is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival as the coach of MTST. There is doubt in my mind that MTST's running game will be the featured highlight. I studied the matchups and I don't see any way for Southern Miss to be able to contain this ground game. The strong ground games keeps the ball out of SM's offensive hands and works the TOP to their favor. SM is also very vulnerable to the passing game and let's keep in mid that MTST gained 417 passing yards in a 62-24 win against Western Kentucky. So, if SM can't stop the run MTST may not even need to throw more than 20 times in this game. But, play action pass will be there all game long should they elect to exploit those man coverages. These are basic reads for any QB at any level and requires only to identify the location of the safeties. So, play Middle Tennessee State for a 10* graded Titan.
12-19-09	Wyoming +10.5 v. Fresno State	Top	35-28	Win	100	21 h 11 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Wyoming as they take on Fresno State set to start at 4:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Wyoming will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a series of game dependent angles. Note that FSU is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after allowing 50 points or more last game since 1992; 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons; 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Even HC Hill is in a series of poor roles noting he is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game and 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games as the coach of FSU. FSU may have the top rusher in yards per game in the nation, but the near opposite can be said for their defense that ranks 111th against the rush. Based on my research and the AiS a key dominant factor to Wyoming covering and possibly pulling off the big upset is that Wyoming will gain more than 150 yards rushing. That will control the control the clock and force FSU
12-12-09	Army +16.5 v. Navy	Top	3-17	Win	100	5 h 43 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Army as they take on navy set to start at 2:30 EST with the game being payed at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. AiS shows an 85% probability that Army will lose this game by 15 or fewer points. Motivation is not needed for this intense rivalry, but Army also knows they get to a 6-6 record, which would be an incredible accomplishment for this team. Plus, they would then face Temple in the EagleBank Bowl game on December 29th. This story is worth mentioning and it is an example of the so many relationships CFB produces. Army HC Ellerson actually recruited Navy HC Niumatalolo while Ellerson was the Hc at Hawaii. Niumatalolo's family wanted so badly for their son to earn a scholarship that they put out a Samoan feast. Ellerson made the mistake of finishing the food on his plate to which the family would add more to his plate. Tradition. The meal worked and Ellerson offered him a scholarship. The friendship has lasted for more than 20 years now and his part of what make the Army/Navy game a tradition like no other. I also like a first half play not to exceed 4 units on Army plus the points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-7 ATS for 82% winners since 1999. Play on any team after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins and is a marginal losing team winning between 40% and 49% of their games and now playing a winning team. For Army to have a chance in this game they must establish the pace of the game and needless to say get the lead. Army's best matchup will be their 6'10
12-05-09	Texas -14 v. Nebraska	Top	13-12	Loss	-101	9 h 20 m	Show
Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Texas as they take on Nebraska in the Bi-12 Championship game set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 90% probability that Texas will win this game by 14 or more points. It all comes together for Texas today and given all the importance of this game they will crank all aspects of the game to top performance levels. AiS also shows numerous and significant game dependent projections that overwhelmingly support Texas. 90% probability that Nebraska will not gain 100 or more rushing yards. Note that Nebraska is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they rush for 50 to 100 yards over the last 3 seasons. 88% probability that Texas will gain between 400 and 450 total offensive yards. Note that Texas is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards over the last 2 seasons. 92% probability that Texas will allow 4 to 4.5 yards per play and also will outgain Nebraska by 0.5 to 1 yards per play. Note that Nebraska is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by 0.5 to 1 yards/play since 1992. Texas is 22-5 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 total yards per play since 1992. Texas is also in several supporting situations coming into this game as well. They are a solid 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) off 3 or more consecutive overs since 1992; 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992. Keys for Texas lie on two Nebraska defenders in Ndamukong and Jared Crick. Texas does not match up well at all in one on one situations as these two are arguably the best at their positions in the country. Yet, there is a host of blocking schemes that support Texas
12-05-09	Alabama v. Florida -3.5	Top	32-13	Loss	-110	6 h 60 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Florida as they take on Alabama in the SEC Championship game set to start at 4:00 EST. AiS reveals an 87% probability that Florida will win this game by 6 or more points. I had some concern researching this game that Alabama knows Florida so well that they would consistently anticipate the Gators offensive plays and tendencies that would ultimately contain Tebow and company. Yet, the one player I kept coming back that makes a significant difference from last year
12-05-09	Houston v. East Carolina +3	Top	32-38	Win	100	18 h 58 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on East Carolina as they take on Houston set to start at 12:00 EST. This is the Conference USA Championship game. AiS shows an 85% probability that ECU will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Houston need help getting here from SMU and now they have to play on the road at the defending conference champs home field. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-9 against the MONEY LINE for 76% success and made 243 units since 2004. Play on a home team versus the money line off 2 straight wins against conference rivals with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. Here is a 2nd money line system hitting 72% winners since 1999 making 43.2 units. Play against a road team versus the money line off a home win against a conference rival facing an opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. AiS shows an 88% probability that ECU will score 28 or more points. Note that Houston is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. ECU is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Houston is also 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons; s 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Houston defense is among the nation's worst in giving up 445.2 yards and it has also allowed 28.0 points per game. The Cougars have especially struggled against the run (218.2 ypg) and that gives East Carolina senior Dominique Lindsay q fantastic opportunity to dominate in Saturday's game. Remember, some guy names Chris Johnson, who now plays for the Tennessee Titans? Well, he was at ECU in 2007 so the coaches know the complete running game. Take ECU.
12-05-09	Cincinnati v. Pittsburgh +2.5	Top	45-44	Win	100	18 h 36 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Pittsburgh as they host Cincinnati set to start at Noon EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that Pitt will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 62% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 20-6 against the money line making 16.8 units since 1992. The average play has been a +114 dog which matches the line for this game. Play on a home team versus the money line off a loss against a conference rival and in a game involving two top-level teams sporting win percentages of >= 80%. Pitt has a 90% probability of gaining 7.5 to 8 net passing yards in this game. Cincinnati is just 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Pitt
12-04-09	Ohio +14 v. Central Michigan	Top	10-20	Win	100	9 h 39 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Ohio University as they face Central Michigan in the MAC Championship game set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Ohio U will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. AiS shows a 90% probability that CMU will score between 22 and 28 points in this game. Note that Ohio U is a solid 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points over the last 3 seasons. Also an 80% probability that Ohio U defense will force 2 turnovers exact. Ohio is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Ohio U has steadily improved throughout the season and bring a extremely physical style of play to the game. Ohio U is playing their best football right now and I would not be surprised to see this game settled by a field goal late. Take Ohio University.
12-03-09	Oregon State +10 v. Oregon	Top	33-37	Win	100	10 h 11 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Oregon State as they take on Oregon set to start at 9:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that OSU will lose this game by 9 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 49-21 for 70% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in their previous game and is a game between two teams with 5 or less defensive starters returning. Of the numerous projections provided by the AiS, there is one that truly sticks out and supports OSU. AiS hsows a 94% probability that OSU will gain between 4.5 and 5.0 yards per play in this game. Note that OSU is a strong 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when they gain 4.5 to 5 total yards per play since 1992; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus excellent rushing teams that are averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus mistake prone teams being nailed for 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. The biggest advantage for OSU is their OL going up against an Oregon DL that lacks size and strength. This is a matchup that will provide for a great opportunity for RB Jacquizz Rogers, who has unreal quickness and tremendous vision, to get through holes. The OSU OL is doing a great job against far superior defensive lines and they will be the dominant reason that OSU covers this number and just might be heading to Pasadena. AiS shows a 45% probability that OSU will win the game. So, adding an optional 3* play on the money line is a solid investment. 5* graded play UNDER the posted total presently at 62.5. AiS shows a 75% probability that 75 or fewer points will be scored in this game. The dominant reason why is the OSU defense, who ranks first against the run in the Pac-10. Oregon, of course, brings a different animal to the table with their spread running offensive scheme. OSU has proven, though, that they have the gap discipline necessary to contain the Oregon offense. Here is a supporting system that has gone 29-9 UNDER for 76% winners since 1992. Play under with all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 after a win by 21 or more points facing an opponent after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game. Oregon has an 87% probability that of gaining between 150 and 200 net passing yards. Note that OSU is a solid 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. OSU is also 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) in road games off 3 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992. Take the UNDER.
11-28-09	Washington State v. Washington -24	Top	0-30	Win	100	9 h 39 m	Show
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Tulane as they take on SMU set to start at 3:00 EST. AiS shows a 74% probability that Tulane will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 1999. Play on road dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games. SMU is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams allowing >=5.9 yards/play over the last 2 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Here is an amazing money line system that has gone 16-11 making 43 units since 2004. Play on a road team versus the money line with a poor scoring defense allowing 31 or more points/game; after being shutout. Tulane is allowing 77 PPG on the season and they were shut out last week by UCF 49-0. SMU defense has been quite poor as well allowing 476.3 yards per game over their last 3 games and have allowed 434 yards per game in their home games. Tulane will be able to move the ball and score points against this defense. The last time Tulane was shutout was October 31 when they lost to LSU 42-0. The next game saw them win 45-38 versus UTEP 45-38 as 6.5 point dogs. Take Tulane. Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Washington as they take on Washington State set to start at 6:30 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 24-3 ATS for 89% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points in conference games that are average offensive teams gaining 4.8 to 5.6 YPP facing a team with a weak defense allowing >=6.2 YPP. This system has gone 19-2 ATS over the past 10 seasons and is 9-0 L5 seasons. 90% probability that Washington will out gain WSU by a minimum of 200 yards and will out gain WSU by 2 or more yards per play. WSU is just 5-23 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards since 1992; Washington is a solid 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play since 1992. WSU is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after gaining 3.75 or less and allowing 6.75+ yards/play last game over the last 3 seasons. Take Washington.
11-28-09	Florida State +25 v. Florida	Top	10-37	Loss	-105	18 h 38 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Florida State as they take on Florida set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that FSU will lose this game by 24 or fewer points. I can still remember last year when I had a 10* Titan winner on Ole Miss, who like FSU, game into Florida as a 24 point dog. Ole Miss won that game and then game that glorious Tebow speech. I am certainly not calling for the upset here, but based on the AiS projections it will be far closer than most observers believe possible. FSU comes in with a severe chip on their shoulders losing 5 straight to this team and enduring a season where their beloved HC was being ridiculed by high level boosters. Nothing would be better than to see Bowden pull off the miracle and prove his naysayers wrong, in the payer
11-28-09	Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma -7.5	Top	0-27	Win	100	15 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Oklahoma as hey host Oklahoma State in the Bedlam rivalry set to start at 12:30 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 8 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-5 ATS for 83% winners since 1999. Play on a home team off a double digit upset loss as a road favorite of 6 more and with a winning record on the season. AiS shows a 92% probability that Oklahoma will pass for 250 to 300 net passing yards. Note that Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when their defense allows 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1992. Oklahoma has lost 5 starters on offense including Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford. But, there has been ample time for this unit to rebuild given the tremendous depth on their roster. I also think getting humiliated by Texas Tech last week even adds more fuel to the competitive fires to not only defeat Oklahoma State, but humiliate them as well. Although this is the most losses Stoop
11-27-09	Nevada +14 v. Boise St	Top	33-44	Win	100	11 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Nevada as they take on Boise State set to start at 10:00 EST. AiS shows a 77% probability that Nevada will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. This is going to be a very tough game for Boise State as Nevada has averaged 55 PPG over their last 5 games attributed mainly to a prolific running game. That running game is the best in the FBS and Nevada will be able to control the clock and the pace of the game. The running game will also keep the highest scoring offense in the land off the field and minimize their scoring opportunities. Nevada HC Ault is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 23-35 for just 40% winners, but has made an incredible 76.2 units in profits since 1992. Play on road dogs of +315 or higher versus the money line after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half facing an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games. The average play for this system has been a +484 DOG! Take Nevada
11-27-09	Alabama Crimson Tide v. Auburn Tigers +10	Top	26-21	Win	100	3 h 16 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Auburn as they take on state rival Alabama in the Iron Bowl set to start at 2:30 and will be nationally on CBS. AIS shows a 83% probability that Auburn will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 42-14 ATS for 75% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites with a good offensive team scoring 28-34 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG after 7+ games and after scoring 37 points or more last game. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 54-25 ATS for 68% winners since 1992. Play on a home team after a game where they forced no turnovers facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. By SEC standards, Auburn
11-27-09	Temple v. Ohio +3	Top	17-35	Win	100	16 h 31 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Ohio University as they take on Temple set to start at 11:00 EST on
11-26-09	Texas -21 v. Texas A&M	Top	49-39	Loss	-105	23 h 30 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Texas as they take on Texas A&M set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 83% probability that Texas will win this game by 21 or more points. AiS projects a 90% probability that Texas will gain between 450 and 500 total yards. Note that A&M is an imperfect 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) when they allow 450 to 500 total yards since 1992. 93% probability that Texas will score 28 or more points. Note that A&M is a weak 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. AiS also reveals a 90% probability that Texas will gain between 8 and 8.5 net passing yards. Note that A&M is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when they allow 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Texas defense matches up very well against A&M. Note too that A&M is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing <=310 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Take Texas in a big route.
11-24-09	Ball State Cardinals v. Western Michigan Broncos -11	Top	22-17	Loss	-103	6 h 21 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Ball State as they take on Western Michigan set to start at 7:00 on ESPN2. AiS shows an 83% probability that Ball State will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Ball State is reinforced by several game dependent angles. Note that Ball State is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons; 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after being outgained by 175+ total yards in their previous game since 1992. Western Michigan is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 29-29 against the MONEY LINE and has made a whopping 38.5 units in profits since 2004. The average money line play has been a +233 dog. Play against a home team versus the money line and is a poor passing team gaining 5.6-6.4 passing yards per attempt and facing a weak passing team gaining <=5.6 PYA. Here is an amazing money line system that has gone just 34-45 for 53% winners, but has made 47 units since 2004. Play on a road team versus the money line with a poor first half defense - 16 or more points per game and after a loss by 28 or more points. Ball State
11-21-09	Oregon -6 v. Arizona	Top	44-41	Loss	-102	11 h 35 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Oregon as they face Arizona set to start at 8:00 and will be seen on ABC TV. AiS shows an 85% probability that Oregon will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 27-3 for 90% winners since 2004. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points average passing team allowing 175-230 PY/game facing an average passing defense allowing 175-230 PY/game and after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. This system is a perfect 4-0 this season and has ripped off a remarkable 19-1 ATS record over the past 3 seasons. Equally remarkable is that 63% of these plays have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Arizona had major problems stopping Cal on the ground last week and that does not bode well for this game. RB LaMichael James is running wild and is benefitting from spread formations drawing LB out of the box. More important though is that the OL is playing tremendous team football and is getting bodies on defenders at both levels. This is the dominant reason that James is having strong success, but he also has the vision and quickness to gain yardage on plays that are stopped at the LOS. The Oregon spread will be just too overwhelming for Arizona to contain for 4 quarters. Take Oregon.
11-21-09	Rutgers v. Syracuse +9	Top	13-31	Win	100	16 h 13 m	Show
Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Syracuse as they host Rutgers set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows an 89% probability that Syracuse will lose this game by 8 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 73-29 for 72% winners since 2004. Play against a road team after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread in weeks 10 through 13. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 49-21 for 70% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games facing an opponent after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 63-27 ATS for 70% winners since 1999. Play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in conference matchups and is a good offensive team scoring 28-34 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG. Here is a 4th system that uses the money line and exploits false favorites with an average play of +149 producing a 51-24 mark for 68% winners over the past 10 seasons. Play on a home team versus the money line after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Rutgers is off a 31-0 pasting of South Florida where they were the beneficiary of four South Florida turnovers. Note that Rutgers is just 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers since 1992. In Syracuse
11-21-09	LSU v. Mississippi -4	Top	23-25	Loss	-115	6 h 28 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Mississippi as they take on LSU set to start at 3:30 and can be seen on CBS TV. AIS shows an 83% probability that Mississippi will win this game by 5 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 44-13 ATS for 77% winners since 2004. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are average passing teams gaining 175-230 PY/game facing an average passing defense allowing 175-230 PY/game and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. LSU does not matchup well against the Rebels. LSU is just 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons; 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus good teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 3 seasons. Ole Miss is a strong 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. RB Dexter McCluster is going to be too much for the LSU defense to handle in this game. He lines up not only at RB, but at WR, and also runs the Wild Cat out of the QB position. LSU is vulerable to over pursuit as evident throughout this season and McCluster is a cut back runner that will exploit lanes created by over pursuit tendencies. Ole Miss has made significant personnel moves on the OL starting a true freshman in Bobbie Massie at RT and moving second team ALL-SEC tackle John Jerry inside to RG. At 335 pounds Jerry opened up huge running lanes for McCluster and other RBs in last week
11-20-09	Boise St v. Utah St. +24	Top	52-21	Loss	-115	12 h 54 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Utah State as they host Boise State set to start at 9:30 EST and will be seen on ESPN2. AiS shows an 83% probability that Utah State will lose this game by 22 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 33-9 ATS for 79% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 14.5 or more points in conference games returning 8+ offensive starters facing an opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 51-22 ATS for 70% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites of 14.5 or more points after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game. Here is a 3rds system that has gone 88-45 ATS for 66% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 14.5 or more points in conference games and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. Utah State is in an excellent role for this game noting they are a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons; 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons. Utah State is a strong running team and to have any hopes of upsetting Boise State a team MUST have a strong running game. They gained 381 rushing yards on 52 carries in last week
11-19-09	Colorado +17 v. Oklahoma State	Top	28-31	Win	100	9 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Colorado as they face Oklahoma State set to start at 7:30 and can be seen on ESPN TV. AiS shows an 80% probability that Colorado will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. The line for this game has been moving quite a bit given that Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson has to be helped off the field in their last game. Based on published reports he will start tonight and the line reflects that fact. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 103-48 ATS for 68% winners since 1992. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games facing an opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Although the AiS shows a 12% probability that Colorado will win the following system still underscores the ATS graded play and can be sued to make significant profits moving forward. This is a money line system playing an average dog of +265 and has made 46.7 units with a 47% winning record of 30-33 since 2004. Play against a home teams versus the money line in conference games that are good passing team gaining 7.5-8.3 PYA facing a poor passing team gaining 5.6-6.4 PYA. Take Colorado and if possible get down a ½* unit on the money line too.
11-14-09	Texas Tech +5 v. Oklahoma State	Top	17-24	Loss	-110	11 h 3 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Texas Tech as they face Oklahoma State set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Texas Tech will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-24 making 40.6 units since 1999. Play on dogs of +155 to +300 versus the money line in conference games that are poor rushing teams gaining 3 to 3.5 YPR facing a team with an excellent rushing defense allowing <=3 YPR. AiS shows a 90% probability that TT will gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt. Note that they are a solid 11-1 against the money line (+10.8 Units) when they gain 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. AiS shows an 88% probability that TT will score more than 28 or more points. Note that TT is 9-2 against the money line (+8.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Oklahoma State is just 2-6 against the money line (-15.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. TT is also supported by a series of solid situational angles. Note that they are 8-1 against the money line (+9.7 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion percentage. of 58% or better over the last 2 seasons; 7-1 against the money line (+8.7 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons; 15-4 against the money line (+16.6 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers since 1992. Take Texas Tech.
11-14-09	Notre Dame +7 v. Pittsburgh	Top	22-27	Win	100	11 h 49 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Notre Dame as they face Pittsburgh set to start at 8:00 and will be seen on NBA TV. AiS shows a 79% probability that Notre Dame will lose this game by 6 or fewer points and has a 50% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite, after the first month of the season. AIS shows a 90% probability that ND will score 28 or more points. Note that ND is 64-35 ATS (+25.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992; Pitt is just 20-61 ATS (-47.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 24-8 making 18 units since 1992 for 75% winners. Play on a road team versus the money line that is a dominant team outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG facing a good team posting a differential of +50-+100 YPG after 7+ games and after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games. Take Notre Dame.
11-14-09	Texas-El Paso v. SMU -6	Top	31-35	Loss	-110	15 h 18 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on SMU as they host UTEP set to start at 3:00 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that SMU will win this game by 9 or more points. AiS also reveals a 92% probability that SMU will score 28 or more points in this game. UTEP is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. SMU is a solid 31-13 ATS (+16.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. An 85% probability that SMU will out gain UTEP by 150 to 200 total yards. Note that UTEP is a weak 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when they are out gained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. Meanwhile, in past games where SMU out gained their opponent by 150 to 200 total yards they are a perfect 8-0 ATS. In addition, UTEp is in a poor situational role for this game noting they are just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. SMU is a dominant passing team and UTEP HC Price has struggled to the tune of a 4-13 ATS mark when facing below average running teams averaging <=120 rushing yards/game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-8 on the money line since 1992 for 78% winners. Play against a road team versus the money line after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games facing an opponent after a win by 3 or less points. Yes, this is a money line system, but it's components reinforce all of the aforementioned situations and the AiS grading. Take SMU.
11-14-09	Houston v. Central Florida +5	Top	32-37	Win	105	4 h 38 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Central Florida as they face number 12 ranked Houston set to start at High Noon EST. CF has an 83% probability of losing this game by 4 or fewer points and has a 59% probability that they will win the game. Houston has needed last drive scores to survive scares from lesser teams. The Houston defense ranks 115th out of 120 FBS teams so I can hardly agree at all that they are the 12th best team in the nation. As outlined by the AiS summary grading, there is a very real possibility that UCF will be able to exploit that weak defense and also to contain the most productive offense in the country. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 78-37 ATS for 68% winners since 1999. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses facing an opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins. AiS also shows a 90% probability that UCF will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that Houston is just 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons and UCF is a solid 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Houston is also in a series of very weak situations noting they are just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Take UCF.
11-13-09	Temple v. Akron +6	Top	56-17	Loss	-100	4 h 20 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Akron as they take on Temple set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows an 83% probability that Akron will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and also has a 64% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-32 on the money line making 40 units in profits with the average play a +200 DOG since 1999. Play against a road team versus the money line after 7 or more consecutive straight up wins in weeks 10 through 13. Here is a 2nd money line system that has gone just 98-105 making 74.5 units over the past 10 years and has also averaged a +203 DOG play. Play against road favorites versus the money line after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game.
11-13-09	West Virginia v. Cincinnati -9.5	Top	21-24	Loss	-105	4 h 45 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Cincinnati as they face West Virginia set to start on ESPN at 8:00 EST Friday night. AiS shows a 78% probability that Cincinnati will win this game by 10 or more points. The so-called problem at who is the better QB is a bit of a stretch in this situation. It is a very unique situation in tat the team will perform well no matter who is taking snaps. They are that close a team and every member on this team is about the team and what they can do to get a National Title oportunity. Whether they get the respect necessary to ear that opportunity remains to be seen. Based on the AiS projections I would not surprised to see this a 20 point+ blowout. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-9 ATS for 73% winners since 1999. Play against road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home win against a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. AiS shows a 90% probability that Cincinnati will outgain WVU by a minimum of 2.0 yards per play. Note that WVU is an awful 1-15 ATS (-15.5 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 2 or more yards/play since 1992. Cincinnati is a solid 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 to 2.5 yards/play since 1992. HC Kelly is in a very strong role noting he is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game in all games he has coached since 1992. Take Cincinnati.
11-11-09	Toledo +17 v. Central Michigan	Top	28-56	Loss	-103	10 h 28 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Toledo as they face Central Michigan set to start at 8:00 EST and will be seen on ESPN2. AiS shows a 78% probability that Toledo will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 102-47 ATS for 69% winners since 1999. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games facing an opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. AIS also shows an 88% probability that Toledo will score 28 or more points. Note that in past games Toledo is a solid 55-13 ATS (+40.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Central Michigan is just 20-49 ATS (-33.9 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Toledo was trailing big at the end of the first half against Miami (Ohio), but played far better in the 2nd half and lost 31-24. Note that Toledo is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half over the last 3 seasons. Teams are two of the top three offenses in the MAC. The top two passers and two of the top four tacklers in the Mid-American Conference will share the field Wednesday night. CMU's Dan LeFevour and Toledo's Aaron Opelt rank first and second, respectively, in the conference in passing efficiency. LeFevour has completed 176-of-257 passes (68.5 percent) for 1,848 yards and 16 touchdowns (145.5 rating), while Opelt has completed 139-of-234 passes (59.4 percent) for 1,863 yards and 15 touchdowns (142.3 rating). Although Toledo ranks dead last in scoring defense in the MAC, I like the matchups presented in this game. Keep an eye on LB Archie Donald as he averaging 10.7 tackles per game. His responsibility will be to contain LeFevour and force him to pass the ball instead of scrambling and creating downfield opportunities. Take Toledo.
11-10-09	Ohio +3 v. Buffalo U	Top	27-24	Win	100	23 h 51 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Ohio University as they face Buffalo set to start at 7:00 and will be seen nationally on ESPN2. AiS shows a 78% probability that Ohio will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-12 and making 30 units with the average play a +131 DOG since 2004. Play against a home team versus the money line off 2 straight losses against conference rivals facing an opponent off a road win. Buffalo did lose two straight conference games at Western Michigan 34-31 and last week at home to Bowling Green 31-30. Not just losses, but heart wrenching emotional ones that take them out of any bowl consideration whatsoever being 3-6. Last week they lost to Bowling Green as a favorite and the team knows they should have won that game. Ohio is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons. Meanwhile Buffalo is just 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. This season they have two common opponents and Ohio U went 2-0 SU and ATS while Buffalo went 1-1 and 0-2 ATS. Moreover, Ohio U averaged a solid 6 yards per play. Take Ohio University.
11-07-09	Oklahoma v. Nebraska +5.5	Top	3-10	Win	100	21 h 4 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Nebraska as they face Oklahoma set to start at 3:30 EST. An alternative wager is to play 12* on the line and 3* on the money line. AiS shows an 87% probability that Nebraska will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and has a 60% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 80-42 ATS since 1992. Play against a road team off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals and now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. 92% probability based on the AiS projections that Oklahoma will pass for 6 to 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Note that Oklahoma is just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. Nebraska is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games versus very good defensive teams who give up 14 or less points/game since 1992. Here is a remarkable money line system that supports Nebraska and has produced a record of 38-10 for 79% winners since 1999. Play on a home team versus the money line after being beaten by the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games and with the game occurring in the second half of the season. Take Nebraska.
11-07-09	Florida State v. Clemson -9	Top	24-40	Win	100	21 h 59 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Clemson over Florida State set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Clemson will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 42-16 ATS for 72% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game facing an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. AiS shows a 92% probability that Clemson will score 28 or more points. Note that Clemson is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. FSU is a poor situation noting they are 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road games after playing 3 straight conference games since 1992. Take the Clemson Tigers.
11-07-09	Army +17 v. Air Force	Top	7-35	Loss	-110	17 h 55 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Army as they face Air Force set to start at 3:30 EST. AIS shows an 87% probability that Army will lose this game by 15 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 18-16 on the Money Line and has made a whopping 60.3 units since 2004. Play on road dogs versus the money line that are terrible offensive team gaining <=280 YPG facing a team with a terrible defense allowing >=440 YPG and after gaining 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games. What is amazing about this system is that the average play has been a dog of +424! Obviously, this is going to a much closer game than the line indicates or the public believes possible. The AiS shows a 92% probability that Army will be outgained by less than half a yard per play. Note that Army is a solid 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when they're outgained by opponents by <=0.5 yards/play since 1992. Air Force is in a poor situation noting they are just 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992. Take Army.
11-07-09	Ohio State +6 v. Penn St.	Top	24-7	Win	100	17 h 41 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Ohio State over Penn State set to start at 3:30 EST. AIS shows a 79% probability that Ohio State will lose this game by 5 or fewer points and has a 52% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 42-13 for 76% since 1999. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points with an opportunistic defense forcing 2.5 or more turnovers/game and after 2 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Penn State finds itself in a horrid situation for this game given Ohio State
11-07-09	Florida Atlantic +7 v. Ala Birmingham	Top	29-56	Loss	-105	15 h 6 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Florida Atlantic as they face UAB set to start at 2:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Florida Atlantic will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 69-31 for 69% winners since 2004. Play on a road team that is an average passing team gaining 6.4-7.5 PYA facing a poor passing team gaining 5.6-6.4 PYA after 7+ games. AiS shows an 88% probability that FA will score 28 or more points. Note that FA is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. FA is in a series of strong situational roles for this game. They are 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 58% or worse since 1992; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus awful passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 62% or worse over the last 3 seasons. Take Florida Atlantic.
11-06-09	Boise St v. Louisiana Tech +21.5	Top	45-35	Win	100	11 h 60 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Louisiana Tech over Boise State set to start Friday Night at 8:00 EST and can be seen on ESPN2. AIS shows an 84% probability that Louisiana Tech will lose this game by 20 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 31-8 for 80% ATS winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 14.5 or more points in conference games; returning 8+ offensive starters facing an opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 47-18 ATS for 72% winners since 1992. Play against road favorites that are very good teams posting a >=+10 PPG differential facing an average team posting a +/- 5 PPG differential after 7 or more games and after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. LT certainly has a solid offense that will create big problems for Boise State. LT has averaged 40 points, 27 FD, 33:52 TOP, 5.6 RYPA (51 attempts for 284 yards per game average). They are hitting 62% of their pass plays for 8.8 YPA in those home games. They have just 1 common opponent in Hawaii, but those game stats show similar results for both Boise and LT. The biggest factor in this game is that LT will be very successful running the ball and controlling the clock. Take Louisiana Tech.
11-05-09	Miami Ohio v. Temple -17	Top	32-34	Loss	-110	8 h 18 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Temple as they host Miami (Ohio) set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Temple will win this game by 18 or more points. AiS projects a 90% probability that Temple will score 28 or more points. Note that Miami (Ohio) is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Temple also has a solid defense this season. AiS shows that they will allow 4 or less yards per play. Note that Temple is a solid 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when they allow less than 4 total yards per play since 1992. AiS also projects an 88% probability that Temple will allow 14 or fewer points. Temple is a solid 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they allow 14 or less points over the last 2 seasons. The Temple offense is based on a very strong running game led by RB Pierce who has 1033 rushing yards on 164 carries and 11 TD
11-05-09	Eastern Michigan +21 v. Northern Illinois	Top	6-50	Loss	-110	8 h 12 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Eastern Michigan as they face Northern Illinois set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that EMU will lose this game by 20 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-4 for 86% winners since 2004. The system has also gone an amazing 12-1 ATS over the past 3 seasons. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points off a home win and is a good team sporting a win percentage of 60% to 80% playing a terrible team winning <=25% of their games on the season. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 74-35 ATS for 68% winners since 1992. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points in conference games with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent. Eastern Michigan is coming off a horrid loss to Arkansas 63-27, but covered the generous number of 37 points. This loss actually puts EMU into a strong situation for this game. Note that they are a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. Take EMU.
11-03-09	Bowling Green v. Buffalo U -3	Top	30-29	Loss	-105	6 h 39 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Buffalo as they face Bowling Green set to start at 8:00 EST and can be seen on ESPN2. AiS shows an 80% probability that Buffalo will win this game by 4 or more points. An optional consideration is play a small not amount not to exceed 2 units on the money line and play 5 on the line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 32-3 versus the money making 31.1 units for 92% winners since 2004. The average play has been a near pick-em situation at +106. Play on a home team versus the money line that is a good offensive team scoring 390 to 440 YPG facing a team with an average defense allowing 330 to 390 YPG and after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game. Here is a 2nd supporting system that has gone 26-7 ATS for 86% winners since 1999. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a road loss against a conference rival and in a game involving two bad teams sporting win percentages between 25% to 40%. AiS also shows an 88% probability that Buffalo will score between 35 and 41 points since 1992. Buffalo is a solid 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992. Bowling Green has an 86% probability of NOT scoring more than 21 points. Note that Buffalo is a solid 17-2 ATS (+14.8 Units) when they allow 15 to 21 points since 1992. Take Buffalo.
10-31-09	South Carolina v. Tennessee -6	Top	13-31	Win	100	20 h 29 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Tennessee as they face South Carolina set to start at 7:45 EST and can be seen on ESPN TV. AiS shows an 86% probability that Tennessee will win this game by 7 or more points. I had Tennessee last week as they came so ever close to defeating number 2 tanked Alabama in Tuscaloosa. I am not surprised at all that the AiS would identity this matchup as an even stronger money making opportunity. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 23-4 against the money line for 85% winners making 21.9 units since 1999. Play on a home team versus the money line that is an average passing team gaining 175-230 PYPG facing a good passing defense allowing 130-175 PYPG and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Yes, this is a money line system, but the average play has been a +112.6 DOG under scoring the validity of this system. AiS shows a 96% probability that Tennessee will score 28 or more points and has a 92% probability of out gaining SC by 100 to 150 total yards. Tennessee is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. SC is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. SC also an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992. Take the Volunteers.
10-31-09	Cincinnati v. Syracuse +16	Top	28-7	Loss	-110	12 h 10 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Syracuse as they face Cincinnati set to start at High Noon. This could be one of those upset specials that no one is looking to occur. The AiS shows an 85% probability that Syracuse will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-10 for 79% winners since 2004. Play on home dogs in conference games of 10.5 to 21 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. Here is a second system that has produced a mark of 37-11 ATS for 77% winners since 2004. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins after the first month of the season. Here is a third system that has gone 42-15 for 74% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points and are excellent defensive teams allowing <=16 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 after 7+ games and after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Syracuse is further supported by a series of game dependent angles. Note that they are 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992; 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game since 1992; 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game since 1992. If you get 6 to 1 or better on the money line it would be a smart wager to add no more than 1.5 units to this 10* Titan play. Take Syracuse.
10-30-09	West Virginia v. South Florida +3	Top	19-30	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on South Florida as they host West Virginia set to start at 8:00 EST and can be seen on ESPN2. AiS shows an 80% probability that South Florida will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 55% probability that they may win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 48-22 making 50.6 units since 1999. Play on a home team versus the money line after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers facing an opponent after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers. Here is a 2nd awesome money line system that has hit 78% winners for a 21-6 record and has made 17.2 units in profits. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game and with 5 offensive starters returning. SF ranks first in the conference in pass defense and that is what will make things very difficult for WVU. The Mountaineers like to run the ball when they are extremely poor in executing pass plays. So, look for SF to play a
10-27-09	East Carolina v. Memphis +4	Top	38-19	Loss	-100	9 h 26 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Memphis as they host East Carolina set to start at 8:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 71-35 for 67% winners since 2004. Play on home dogs after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games and is a team winning between 25% to 40% of their games playing a team with a winning record. Despite memphis having a losing record, ECU is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons; 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. Also supporting this graded play is a strong MONEY LINE SYSTEM that has gone just 40-47 for 46% winners, but has made a whopping 48 units since 1992. Play against road favorites versus the money line with an average defensive team allowing 21 to 28 PPG facing a below average defensive team allowing 28-34 PPG and after scoring 37 points or more last game. The average play for this game has been a +237 dog. So, this is analogous to playing Black Jack and getting paid $2.37 for every winning $1.00 hand played. That would never happen in any casino, but this system has produced very REAL results. Despite their contrasting records these are two near equal teams. They both will run a balanced offensive attacks. The big difference is that the Memphis defense matches up very well and they will be the reason that Memphis can pull off a possible upset win. Memphis has played a tougher schedule as well having played the 2 top teams in the division in Marshall and Southern Miss. Memphis is a lot better than their record indicates. Take Memphis.
10-24-09	Auburn +7.5 v. LSU	Top	10-31	Loss	-105	24 h 57 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Auburn as they face LSU set to start at 7:30 and can be seen on ESPN2. AiS shows an 88% probability that Auburn will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 35-6 ATS for 85% winners since 1992. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite. LSU is in a series of poor situations that support Auburn and reinforce the AiS grading as well. Note that LSU is an imperfect 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games versus good passing defenses allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons; 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons; 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games versus excellent rushing teams - averaging >=5.25 rushing yards/carry since 1992; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good offensive teams scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good offensive teams averaging >=425 yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Miles is just 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games versus good passing defenses allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. as the coach of LSU. The offensive line for LSU has been horrific allowing 11 sacks in the past 2 games against Florida and Georgia. The offense was miserable against Florida gaining the fewest total yards since playing against Arkansas in 2000. The offense had just 5 first downs on passing plays last week and QB Jefferson has not thrown a TD in 2 games. Take the Auburn Tigers.
10-24-09	Tennessee +14.5 v. Alabama	Top	10-12	Win	100	20 h 52 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Tennessee as they face Alabama set to start at 3:30 EST and can be seen on CBS TV. AiS shows an 85% probability that Tennessee will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 22-10 for 69% winners with the average play an incredible +230 on the MONEY LINE. Play against a home team versus the money line that is an excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing 3 to 3.5 YPR after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Tennessee is lined at roughly 550 so an alternative wager is to add a 2* amount and play 9* on the line. That adds up to 11* total and reflects a solid risk/reward profile. AiS shows that Alabama will have between 300 and 350 total yards in this game. Note that Tennessee is a solid 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when they allow 300 to 350 total yards since 1992. Tennessee is also a strong 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better since 1992; 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992. Tennessee is going to play a lot of zone defensive schemes and will add a man coverage situation with Evans cover Alabama WR Jones. Evans has exceptional size and is far more physical than Julio Jones has had to play against this season. Another key is that Tennessee is very fast to the ball and this will minimize Alabama
10-23-09	Rutgers Scarlet Knights -10.5 v. Army Black Knights	Top	27-10	Win	100	6 h 5 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Rutgers as they face Army set to start at 8:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 24-8 for 75% winners since 2004. Play against a home team versus the money line with a poor offense averaging 315 or less total yards/game, after gaining 275 or less total yards in 3 consecutive games. Yes, money line system that supports the grading by the AiS. AiS shows an 77% probability that Rutgers will win this game by 11 or more points and also has an 88% probability of out gaining Army by 150 to 200 total yards. Note that Rutgers is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 150-200 yards since 1992. AiS also projects a 90% probability that Rutgers will score more than 28 points. Note that Rutgers is a solid 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Army is just 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points over the last 3 seasons; 28-64 ATS (-42.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Take Rutgers.
10-22-09	Florida State v. North Carolina -2.5	Top	30-27	Loss	-115	8 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on North Carolina as they host FSU set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that UNC will win this game by 3 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a strong proven system hitting 82% winners for a 36-8 ATS record since 1999 Play against any team that is a good offensive team gaining 390 to 440 YPG facing a poor offensive team gaining 280 to 330 YPG and after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. Here is a 2nd strong system that has gone 72-32 for 69% ATS winners since 1992. Play Against - A road team (FLORIDA ST) - after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. Play against a road team after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games facing an opponent after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. AiS also shows an 88% probability that UNC will score 28 or more points and also gain more than 9 yards per pass attempt. Note that UNC is a solid 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Take UNC
10-21-09	Tulsa v. Texas-El Paso +9	Top	24-28	Win	100	7 h 44 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Texas El Paso as they host Tulsa in Thursday night action set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that TEP will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 70-35 making 31.5 units since 2004 for 67% winners. Play on home dogs after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games and has won just 25% to 40% of their games playing a team with a winning record. This is perhaps Texas El Paso
10-17-09	Washington v. Arizona State -6	Top	17-24	Win	100	13 h 50 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Arizona State as they host Washington set to start at 10:15 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that ASU will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 57-24 ATS for 70% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival facing an opponent off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less. AiS shows a 90% probability that Washington will not gain more than 300 total yards and an 86% probability that they will gain between 250 and 300 total yards. Note that Washington is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games when they gain 250 to 300 total yards since 1992. Washington is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team sporting a win percentage of 51% to 60% since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons; 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Take Arizona State.
10-17-09	San Jose State +20 v. Fresno State	Top	21-41	Push	0	24 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on San Jose State as they face Fresno State set to start at 10:00 EST. Also, if available, place a 1 unit amount on the money line at +875 or higher. AIS shows an 80% probability that SJST will lose this game by 16 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 20-38 against the money line, BUT has made a whopping 84.2 units since 2004. Play against home favorites of -425 or higher versus the money line after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season. The current line for this money line game is +875 and higher at most sports books. Over my 16-year career, I have had many amazing upsets
10-17-09	Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech +3.5	Top	23-28	Win	100	21 h 32 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Georgia Tech as they host Virginia Tech set to start at 6:00 EST. AiS shows an 87% probability that G-tech will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-5 ATS for 85% winners since 2004. Play against a road team after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game facing an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. AiS also shows a 93% probability that G-tech will gain 250 to 300 yards rushing and since 1992 they are 15-1 ATS in games where they have achieved this range of rushing yards. AiS also shows a 92% probability that G-tech will score 28 or more points. Note that V-tech is just 9-35 ATS (-29.5 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. G-tech is a solid 58-18 ATS (+38.2 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. GT head coach Johnson is a solid big game coach noting that he is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 in all games he has coached since 1992. GT runs the spread option and this requires tremendous discipline form the defensive front 7 and linebackers. One of the best things that QB Josh Nesbitt does is to be very patient to wait for his OL to make the assigned block and then read what is next for the play. Also, look for them to run at first-year starters ILBs Barquell Rivers and Jake Johnson, who have yet to face a true option attack this year. B-back Dwyer is a strong downhill runner and the V-tech linebackers and DBs cannot react to quickly to pursuit otherwise a quick pitch to A-backs Jones, Peeples, or Allen will result in a score. I just don
10-17-09	Rice +18.5 v. East Carolina	Top	13-49	Loss	-105	17 h 8 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Rice as they face East Carolina set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows a 77% probability that Rice will lose this game by 17 or fewer points. Also, place an optional 1 unit wager on the money line if available. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 57-23 making 31.7 units since 1999. Play on road dogs after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread and is winless on the season. Let
10-17-09	Northwestern +14 v. Michigan State	Top	14-24	Win	100	14 h 39 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Northwestern as they face Michigan State set to start at Noon EST. Also, if available a 1 unit optional play on the money line if available.AiS shows an 80% probability that Northwestern will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 99-42 ATS for 70% winners since 1999. Play on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games facing an opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Also, the same money line system mentioned in the San Jose State game is also valid for this game as well. AiS also shows an 88% probability that Michigan State will rush for 100 to 150 rushing yards. Note that Northwestern is a solid 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games when they allow 100 to 150 rushing yards since 1992. Take NW.
10-17-09	Oklahoma +3.5 v. Texas	Top	13-16	Win	100	13 h 17 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Oklahoma as they face Texas set to start at High Noon in Dallas. AiS shows an 84% probability that Oklahoma will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Much has been said in the media about the QBs and offenses, but based on my research it will be the Sooner defense that dominates this game. Sooners are 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 2 seasons; Texas just 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. HC Mack Brown a sour 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 during his reign at Texas. For those of you who like the money line I would not add more than a 2.5* unit on the ML as an optional wager. Supporting this opportunity as well as the 10* play is an AiS projection calling for a 92% probability that Oklahoma will have between 250 and 300 net passing yards in this game. Note that Oklahoma is 16-2 against the money line (+14.4 Units) when they gain 250 to 300 net passing yards since 1992.
10-16-09	Pittsburgh -5.5 v. Rutgers	Top	24-17	Win	100	9 h 56 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Pittsburgh as they face Rutgers set to start at 8:00 EST and can be seen on ESPN. AiS shows an 80% probability that Pittsburgh will win this game by 6 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 37-36 on the MONEY LINE, but has made a whopping 53.6 units. The average play for this system has been a dog of +242. So, this is analogous to playing Black Jack at the casino and being paid $2.42 for every winning $1.00 hand played. Play on a road team versus the money line after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers facing an opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 33-9 on the money line for 79% winners since 2004. Play on a road team versus the money line off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite and is a top-level team winning >= 80% of their games playing a team winning 60% to 80% of their games. Rutgers is in a series of weak roles for this noting they are just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games after a game where they committed no turnovers since 1992; 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992; 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers since 1992. Pittsburgh HC Dave Wannstedt is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games in October games while at the helm of this team. Take Pittsburgh.

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