25* graded play on Louisiana Tech as they take on Western Kentucky in Thursday Night NCAA Football action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. I also have a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the New England Patriots. In summary, Big ben is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS in games where the total is between 46 1/2 and 54 1/2 over the five seasons. Ok, on to the college report detail. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-5 ATS mark good for 84% winners since 1992. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W KENTUCKY) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 2 or more straight wins, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80% win percentage) and playing a team that had a winning record. The following game situations match te SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. LT is a solid 28-6 ATS (+21.4 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992; WKU is just 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Take Louisiana Tech. 

25* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on Alabama set to kickoff at 8:00 PM ET. Sim shows a high probability that Wisconsin will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot at pulling off the upset. I would highly recommend making this a combination wager using a 22* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line for a total risk of 27* units. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Wisconsin is a solid 55-20 ATS (+33.0 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt since 1992; 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Here is the best one noting that Wisconsin is  9-1 against the money line (+8.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. It will be the massive ground attack by Wisconsin that will win this game for them and Alabama is vulnerable against big time ground attacks. They are  1-7 against the money line (-9.7 Units) when they allow 250 to 300 rushing yards since 1992. They also have not faired well in shootout type games. They are just 1-3 against the money line (-18.3 Units) in road games when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The -18.3 units also reflects that they were big favorites in these games just as they are against Wisconsin tonight. Take the Badgers. 

25* graded play on Texas A&M as they take on Arizona State set to kickoff at 7:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that A&M will win this game by at least 6 points. A&M returns 16 starters with 8 each on offense and defense and have their QB returning as well. ASU has retunred 7 starters on offense and not their QB. They do return 9 defensive starters, but I just don't see this unit containing A&M for four quarters. This is being contested at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. So although a neutral site, it certainly will have a home game feel for the Aggies. ASU was a blitz heavy defense last season and I fully expect them to bring blitz at least 60% of the time tonight. They blitz an average of 56% in 2014. However, A&M QB Kyle Allen had a better TD/INT ratio when facing the blitz then he did not facing pressure. Slip screens will work very well against an aggressive defensive attack. Plus, look for the TE in play action in vertical routes. A&M is the play. 

25* graded play on UCLA as they take on Virginia in NCAA action set to start at  the as they take on the  action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.SIM shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by at least 21 points. For the first time since 2002, UCLA will start a true freshman at QB in Josh Rosen, who is the No.1 ranked QB in the 2015 class. He has had tremendous practices and has excelled in scrimmages looking more like a veteran Senior signal caller than a kid fresh out of High School action. He will be well protected by an excellent offensive line and will have a strong ground attack led by Paul Perkins. He had 1575 rushing yards in 2014. The strong ground attack will set up play action for Rosen with his elite receivers in man coverage. He has the strength to stretch any defense and the vertical routes will be attacked against UVA. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-8 mark good for 81% winners since 2005.  Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (UCLA) good offensive team from last season scoring 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. It has gone 20-4 ATS over the last five seasons. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. UCLA is a solid 35-12 ATS (+21.8 Units) when they allow 50 to 100 rushing yards since 1992;  31-8 ATS (+22.2 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards since 1992; 31-11 ATS (+18.9 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons. Take UCLA.

35* graded play on the Auburn Tigers as they take on the Louisville Cardinal set to kick off at 3:30 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by more than 13 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-8 ATS mark good for 81% winners since 2005.  Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (AUBURN) good offensive team from last season that scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and it has gone 20-4 over the last 5 seasons. The Auburn defense will be markedly better in 2015 having 8 returning starters from that unit. They will be going up against a Louisville offense that retunrs 5 starters including their QB. The lack of chemistry along the Louisville offensive line will allow Auburn to attack and make plays. Auburn will show blitz on nearly every play to add confusion to OL blocking assignments. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Auburn is a solid 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt since 1992; 22-5 ATS (+16.5 Units) when they gain 450 to 500 total yards since 1992. Auburn has a tremendous QB in Jeremy Johnson, who is 6-5 and 240 pounds with a pro strength arm. If you like betting Heisman long shots then this is your man. Take Auburn. 

25* graded play on Michigan State as they take on Western Michigan in NCAA Football action set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  Sim shows a high probability that MSU will win this game by 21+ points.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-10 ATS mark good for 76% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) that is a good passing team from last season that averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season.  Of all the wagers, 54% of them covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 38-13 ATS for 75% winners since 2005.  Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, top level team from last season who won 80% or more of their games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. MSU is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards over the last 2 seasons; WMU is just  7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992;  4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) when they gain 150 to 200 net passing yards since 1992; 5-22 ATS (-19.2 Units) when they allow 500 or more total yards since 1992. WMU has had a great turn around to what was a dismal football program that went 1-11 in 2013. Coming off a winning season in 2014 will not be enough to make the step up in competition and face a strong Big Ten Conference foe. MSU is just too deep at the skill positions for WMU to be able to contain for four quarters. MSU offensive line is going to wear down the smaller sized WMU defensive front and will set up play action pass plays in man coverages. Take Michigan State. 

25* graded play on TCU as they take on Minnesota in CFB action set to start  as they take on the  action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that TCU will win this game by more than 17 points. TCU returns 10 offensive starters including their QB and this will be a huge advantage for them in this matchup. During the first month of the CFB season, teams returning all but one starter on either side of the ball have the experience and continuity of the previous season working for them. This is most notable on offensive lines where chemistry is major quality of excellent offensive units. Of course there are the Alabama's and Ohio State's of the NCAA world that simply reload with elite talent and offset the lack of experience quickly. TCU is an elite team and based on my power ratings from the SIM, they would be 9 point dogs to Alabama on a neutral field. So, I strongly believe that Minnesota will have a very tough time just containing the TCU powerhouse. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-4 ATS mark good for 86% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) and is a top level team from last season who won 80% or more of their games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. 46% of these plays covered the spread by more than 7 points. Here is a second system that has gone 32-9 ATS for 78% winners since 2005. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) good passing team from last season that averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season. 55% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a third powerhouse system that has gone 34-7 ATS for 83% winners since 2005 and has gone 14-2 ATS over the last three seasons. Play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TCU) good offensive team from last season scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. TCU is a very strong 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 44-6 ATS (+37.4 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Minnesota is just 32-92 ATS (-69.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992;  7-27 ATS (-22.7 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992;  2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when they allow 200 to 250 rushing yards since 1992. Take TCU. 

25* graded play on North Carolina as they take on South Carolina in NCAA Football action set to start at 6:00 PM ET. SIM shows a high probability that UNC will win this game. The line is at -2 1/2 favoring SC. Unless the line gets to -3, there is no opportunity to do a combination wager. If it does climb to 3, then consider making a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using the money line to exploit the upset potential of this matchup. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Extremely high probability that UNC will score more than 28 points. SC is just 20-67 ATS (-53.7 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992; 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992; UNC is a solid 82-34 ATS (+44.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. UNC returns 10 starts and their QB on offense and this is a monumental advantage for them in this matchup. The offensive line benefits the most form the past game experience and their blocking schemes and assignments are executed at a very high level. SC has just four returning starters on offense and their learning curve will take time even with Spurrier as the teacher. Take UNC tonight. 

50* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Oregon in the NCAA National Championship game set to start at 8:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Ohio State will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has an excellent shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager comprised of a 44* play using the line and a 6* play using the money line. Broadly speaking, the biggest difference between these two elite programs is the simple fact that Ohio State has a vastly better defense than Oregon. Both teams have played an exact SOS this season so the national rankings are a fair comparison. Oregon ranks 29th in scoring defense (23 PPG), 84th in opponent yards per game (426), 53rd in allowed yards-per-play (5.3), and 75th in third down conversion allowed (42%). Ohio State ranks 19th allowing 22.1 PPG, 11th in yards allowed (333), 11th in allowed yards per play (4.7), and 22nd in third down conversions allowed (35%). Another major factor in this matchup is coaching where Ohio State Head coach Meyer has had 11 experiences at this level while Helfrich is in his first National Championship game. The venue is at Jerry's Palace and the media will be overwhelming. At the College Football level, coaching is monumentally more important in big games, then at the NFL level. The simple fact that the Ohio State players can fully trust everything that Meyer tells his team in order to prepare them cannot be over stated. Here are coaching trends that support Ohio State. Meyer is a solid 39-13 ATS (+24.7 Units) after playing a non-conference game in all games he has coached; 42-13 ATS (+27.7 Units) in non-conference games in all games he has coached; 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog in all games he has coached; 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) facing excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17+ PPG on the season in all games he has coached. Looking at the injury report we see Oho State's Dontre Wilson and Jeff Heuerman as probable. Yet, on the Oregon side of the report, we see two suspensions and several other possible suspensions yet to be confirmed.  This is a clear sign of team distractions and uncertainty in a game where these conditions are magnified greatly. Ohio State QB Cardale Jones may have inexperience, but he is well supported by an excellent offensive line and numerous weapons. He has played in big games already and has posted a QBR of 159 with 7 TD and 1 INT. He is a big strong athletic QB standing 6-5 and weighing 250 pounds. He is bigger than all of the Oregon LB and arguably stronger. So, he is going to very tough to bring down when running in space or using his legs to extend plays. My conclusion is that Ohio State will wear down the smaller Oregon defense in producing long time consuming drives. Let's now take a look at the technical picture. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-32 mark using the Money Line, but has made a whopping 53 units/unit wagered since 1992.  Play against neutral field favorites using the money line (OREGON) that is a dominant team outgaining their opponents by 1.5 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. This system has averaged a +292 DOG play. The winning percentage of 48% is irrelevant and the units won is all that truly matters with a powerful Money Line system. This is analogous to playing Black Jack at the casino and having essentially a 50/50 chance of winning each hand played. However, in this system, a winning hand pays of nearly 3:1 and this reflects the power of identifying DOGS that are projected to cover easily and also has a better than 55% probability of achieving the upset win. Take Ohio State. 

50* graded play on the Florida State Seminoles as they take on Oregon in the Rose Bowl set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. As we did with the 50* GOY winner on NC State, a combination wager is an excellent investment with an excellent risk/reward and total rate of return profile.  So, consider making a 42* play on the line and then add an 8* play using the money line. Let's first look at the technical readings supporting FSU. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 ATS mark for 71% winners since 1992. Play on any team (FLORIDA ST) that that is a modest rushing team gaining between 100 to 140 RY/G and is now facing an average rushing defense allowing between 140 and 190 RY/G) after 7+ games, and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. I believe the FSU ground attack will be highly successful and will serve to generate a significant advantage in TOP. Clearly, FSU cannot get into a shootout type of game against Oregon. Further, FSU is 1-7 ATS L3 seasons and just 9-44 ATS since 1992 when allowing an opponent 28 or more points. So, I point that out ONLY because I am extremely confident that Oregon will not score 28 or more points. Note too, that Oregon is a money burning 4-11 against the money line (-12.1 Units) when they allow 6.5 to 7 total yards per play since 1992; Additionally, FSU is a very solid 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992; 12-22 against the money line (-18.9 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Overall, Oregon is barely in the TOP-50 in defensive efficiency. They rank 52nd allowing 5.2 yards-per-play and 65th in third down conversions allowed (41%). FSU ranks 27th gaining 6.2 yards-per-play and 15th posting a 0.498 points-per-play ratio. Plus, FSU has arguably the best FG kicker in the game in Robert Aguayo, who has connected ton 25 of 27 FG attempted with an enormous leg. It may come down to him and I love FSU's chances with the game on the line for game winning FG. Take Florida State.

25* graded play on Michigan State as they take on Baylor in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic set to start at 12:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that MSU will win this game.  There is certainly conclusive projections from the SIM that MSU will score 28 or more points. In past games, they are a very strong 8-2 ATS this season and 16-3 ATS L3 seasons when they score 28 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 54-20 mark for 73% winners and has made 35.1 units/unit wagered since 1992. This system has gone 8-1 using the money line and made 7.2 units/unit wagered this season. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MICHIGAN ST) an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after allowing 14 points or less last game. Here is a second system working against Baylor and has gone 35-14 using the money line for 71.4% winners and has made 23.2 units/unit wagered since 2004. Play against all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (BAYLOR) that are excellent rushing teams averaging 225 or more rushing yards/game and after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Getting back to the projections and now using the money line we see that MSU is a near-perfect 10-1 against the money line (+9.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons;  28-11 against the money line (+20.6 Units) when they gain 400 to 450 total yards since 1992. Take Michigan State.

25* graded play on Boise State as they take on Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl set to start at 4:00 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Boise State will win this game. The return on investment (ROI) is not validated by the current lines. If the line moves to 3 1/2 and a money line above 145, then making a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line is validated. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 48-19 ATS mark for 72% winners since 2008. Play on any team (ARIZONA) off a loss against a conference rival and is now facing an opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more. 57% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. I see Boise State scoring at least 28 points in this game. Arizona is just 2-4 ATS this season, 5-15 ATS L3 seasons, and 22-86 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Further, they are money burning 2-6 ATS L3 seasons and 12-26 ATS since 1992 when allowing 400 to 450 offensive yards. Arizona HC Rodriguez is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games facing high-powered offensive teams scoring 37 or more points/game in all games in his coaching career;  1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Boise's offense is going to exploit several weaknesses in the Arizona defense. Boise has the ground attack that will wear down the Arizona defensive front and setup excellent play action opportunities in man coverage. Arizona ranks a suspect 66th in the nation allowing 171 rushing yards per game and 120th allowing 278 passing yards per game. Boise's relentless and well balanced offense will dominate the game. Take Boise State. 

25* graded play on Mississippi as they take on TCU in the Chick-Fil-a Bowl set to start at 12:30 PM ET. This game is being played in the Georgia Dome at Atlanta. I also like the 'under' for a 10* play and then consider adding a 5* parlay using the money line and the 'under'. The simulator shows a high probability that Mississippi will win this game. Much has been made about the so-called chip on the shoulder that TCU has after they feel they were snubbed by Ohio State from playing the 4-team playoff format. Well, my research clearly shows that after this game, they will have no gripe whatsoever. I further believe that such a chip can actually work against a team in this type of situation. Far too much attention and focus is being made of the snub and the need to blowout Mississippi to prove their self-worth, that in the end the focus and attention to the execution of each play is lost. Supporting the 'under' play is a proven system posting a 46-16 mark for 74% winners since 2008. 55% of these plays went 'under' the total by at least 7 points. Play 'under' with all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (OLE MISS) in a game involving two dominant teams outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG in non-conference games. Further, my analysis and SIM projections show a very high probability that Mississippi will score at least 28 points and that TCU is unlikely to exceed that mark. Mississippi is 6-2 ATS this season and 19-5 ATS L3 seasons when they have scored 28 or more points. Further, they are a perfect 5-0 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. There is a major difference with the SOS played by these two teams and Mississippi has enjoyed the additional time off after playing the brutal West Division of the SEC Conference. TCU has not played a defense like Mississippi that has superior speed, quickness, gap discipline, and athleticism than any other team they faced. You simply cannot simulate game speed in preparation for the Mississippi defense. Freeze is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when facing excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. as the coach of Mississippi; 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in games played on turf; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. Take Mississippi.

25* graded play on Notre Dame as they take on LSU in the Music City Bowl set to start at 3:00 PM ET, December 30, 2014. The simulator shows a high probability that ND will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. I also like making this a combination wager by playing a 21.5* amount on the line and a 3.5* amount using the money line. I like the change to Malik Zaire as it will undoubtedly lead to greater ball security and more mobility in the picket. I also think the Pistol can be un successfully as well. LSU boasts one of the best defenses in the nation in the majority of statistical measurements. However, the times they were torched it was in the vertical passing game that also served to open up the middle of the field for power running between the tackles and quick slants and 'ins' to TE. This will make an offense that ranked 29th with a 0.441 points-per-play ratio and 16th in passing yards per game significantly more efficient. LSU has struggled on offense and is the dominant reason they did not contend late into the season for a possible SEC Championship berth. They played in the very deep and talented West Division, but at the end of the day it was an offense that ranked 85th in scoring offense and 90th in total offensive production that has led them to the Music City Bowl. Notre Dame has been setting all-time records in scoring and yards allowed in their recent games. Yet, with all of this time to prepare I do see the Notre Dame defense being highly successful against a woeful LSU offense. Moreover, they will be prepared as well for the Les Miles "trickery plays''. The following game situations support my expectations for the outcome of this game. Notre Dame is a very strong 10-2 against the money line (+9.0 Units) when their defense allows 150 to 200 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Take Notre Dame.

25* graded play on the Texas A&M Aggies as they take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Liberty Bowl set to start at 2:00 PM ET. This game is being played at the Liberty Memorial Stadium in Memphis, TN. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas A&M will win this game. I like making this a combination wager using an 18* play on the line and a 7* play using the money line. The following game situations match my expectations for this game.  WVU is just  2-9 against the money line (-11.0 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 13-30 against the money line (-27.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992; 5-18 against the money line (-31.4 Units) when they allow 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992; Texas A&M is a solid 13-3 against the money line (+18.3 Units) when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt since 1992; 15-3 against the money line (+12.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 6-1 against the money line (+6.8 Units) in road games when both teams score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons;  12-3 against the money line (+14.0 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 total yards per play since 1992. Further, the added rest for West Virginia has not ended up being a positive factor knowing they are an imperfect 0-5 against the money line (-9.4 Units) after a bye week(s) over the last three seasons. Holgorsen is 2-6 against the money line (-14.4 Units) after a bye week as the coach of WVU. In media outlets, the focus has been on the apparent weakness in the A&M defense. Yet, they are not nearly as porr a unit as they would lend you to believe. In fact, they rank 68th in the nation with a 0.376 points-per-play ratio and 30th in opponent red zone scoring. What is confirms is that A&M is a bend and don't break type of defense. They can allow a ton of yards between the 20's, but when in the red zone, the defense has consistent scheme in keeping teams from getting into the end zone. What is even more eye-pooping is that WVU ranks 70th in the nation with a 0.381 points-per-play allowed and 79th in passing yards allowed per game (294). A&M loves to throw the ball and they rank 14th averaging 298 passing yards per game. So, I strongly believe it will be the West Virginia defense that will be under immense pressure to keep A&M from scoring points on almost every drive. Take the Aggies. 

25* graded play on the Nebraska Cornhuskers as they take on USC in the Holiday Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET. This game is being played in Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA.  The simulator shows a high probability that Nebraska will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 18-13 mark, BUT making 25 units/unit wagered using the MONEY LINE since 2004. The average play for this system has been a very impressive +211 DOG. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (NEBRASKA) off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival and is now facing an opponent off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. I am seeing lines starting at +225 and going as high as +250 for this play. Further, I am confident that Nebraska will score 28 or more points. In past games, USC is a miserable 1-4 ATS this season, 3-12 ATS the L3 seasons, and 15-61 ATS since 1992 when they have yielded 28 or more points. When Nebraska gets the offense rolling and have scored at least 28 in past games, they are 6-3 ATS this season and 112-58 ATS since 1992. Take Nebraska. 

25* graded play on the Miami Hurricanes as they take on the South Carolina Gamecocks in a great matchup of major Conferences set to to place in the Independence Bowl beginning at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will win this game by 6 points. Both teams have played a difficult schedule so the rankings and stat comparisons are quite valid. The biggest difference in this game will be the Miami defense that ranks 18th in yards per play allowed and 51st in points-per-play allowed. They have been very strong against the pass this season and this matches up quite well to SC offensive scheme under HC Spurrier. Canes rank 15th allowing just 6.1 yards per pass and 17th allowing 193 passing yards per game. Miami will force far more 3-and-outs and will enjoy a major advantage in TOP. The SC defense just will not be able to stand up to the constant pounding by Miami and the extended periods of time on the field. I also believe that Miami will attack the middle of the field immediately after forcing SC in a 3-and-out or short duration drive. This undoubtedly will wear the SC defense down gradually as the game progresses. I see Miami scoring at least 28 points. In the past they are 15-6 ATS L3 seasons and 92-46 ATS since 1992 when scoring 28 or more points. SC is a money burning 2-5 ATS this season, 2-10 ATS the L3 seasons, and 20-67 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Take the Hurricanes.

25* graded play on Duke as they take on Arizona State in the Sun Bowl taking place at Sun Bowl Stadium in ElPaso Texas and set to start Saturday at 2:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Duke will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-14 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1992. It has gone 3-1 ATS this season. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DUKE) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival and now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. The following game situations match the projections I see for this game. Duke is a very solid 9-2 against the money line (+12.2 Units) when they allow 150 to 200 rushing yards over the last 3 seasons; 8-2 against the money line (+7.4 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards over the last 3 seasons; 9-1 against the money line (+11.0 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons; 8-15 against the money line (-14.8 Units) when they allow 4.5 to 5 rushing yards per attempt since 1992; 20-24 against the money line (-20.3 Units) when they allow 350 to 400 total yards since 1992. ASU has had a long history of struggling against strong running teams like Duke. They have posted a miserable 11-36 against the money line (-29.4 Units) en facing good rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. The strong ground attack is going to be a dominant reason Duke wins this game. The strong ground game then sets up play action where ASU has struggled in man coverage, especially in the middle of the field in underneath or bracket coverage. Duke is a very smart football team as evidenced by ranking 20th best in the nation throwing an INT on only 1.76% of plays and ranking 6th allowing a QB sack on just 3.17% of plays. Take Duke. 

50* graded play on the NC State as they take on UCF in the St. Petersburg Bowl set to start at 8:00 PM ET, December 26, 2014. NC State played a vastly more difficult schedule this season and I strongly believe their strong ground attack will dominate the UCF defense throughout this game.  NC State ground attack ranks 21st in the nation gaining 5.2 yards per attempt and 37th gaining 201 yards per game. Shadrach Thorton leads the team with 147 attempts, 811 rushing yards, and 9 TD. Wolf Pack QB is second with 110 attempts and 498 yards and 3 TD. Although not spectacular season stats, they have gained 362 rushing yards in a win over Wake Forest and 388 yards in their last game against state-rival UNC. This has been a dramatic shift in their offensive schemes and will be quite difficult for UCF to fully prepare for in this matchup. Further, the UNC air attack has strong enough that UCF must respect the presence of play action as well. Bo Hones leads the team with 42 receptions and 537 receiving yards. Yet, it is TE David Grinnage, who I believe will have a big day off of these play action pass situations. He is an excellent run blocker, BUT at 6-5 and 270 pounds is a huge target in open space. He has 24 grabs and 5 TD on the season. The simulator shows a high probability that NC State will win this game by 10 or more points. The public has steadily bet UCF and I do see the possibility of this climbing from a current level of 2 points to possibly 3 by game time. Normally, I would suggest a combination wager with a DOG. However, unless the line climbs to 3 1/2 the combination wager does not produce enough (ROI) to be valid. So, if it does get to 3 1/2 or higher, then a combination wager using a 40* play on the line and a 10* play using the money line would be valid. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-8 mark using the Money Line for 77% winners since 1992. Play on all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NC STATE) with a solid offense gaining between 390 to 440 YPG and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. We already know NC State had a huge game winning 35-7 over rival UNC and easily covered as a 6 1/2 point dogs. Take North Carolina State.

25* graded play Central Michigan as they take on Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl set to start at Noon Christmas Eve. I want to take this moment to wish every the best Christmas possible and best wishes for the New Year. I greatly appreciate your loyal support of my plays as it obviously has supported my family over the 18 years I have been here on Vegas Experts. The simulator shows a high probability that CMU will win this game. The public is starting to bet WKU and I believe the line will go to 3 1/2 points. This is important as at that level a combination wager produces a very good return on investment (ROI). So, if you are able to get 3 1/2 , the consider making a 20* play using the line and a 5* play using the money line. CMU has some very strong historical trends backing them. They are a solid 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. since 1992;  10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) facing poor rushing defenses allowing >=200 rushing yards/game over the last three seasons;  8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) facing weaker defensive teams allowing >=6.25 yards/play over the last three seasons. CMU is a perfect 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons. Based on the matchup projections I see CMU gaining at least 5.5 yards per play. In games played where they have attained this benchmark they are a solid 2-0 ATS this season and 6-1 ATS the L3 seasons. I also believe that CMU will score 28 or more points. They are a quite strong 12-5 against the money line (+10.3 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last three seasons. Take Central Michigan.

25* graded play on Marshall as they take on Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl at FAU Stadium  set to start at 6:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Marshall will win this game by 14 or more points. The following game situations match the projections for the outcome I see in this matchup. Marshall is 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they allow 5.5 to 6.0 net passing yards; 5-1 ATS L3 seasons when they gain 300 or more rushing yards; 9-2 ATS L3 seasons when they rush for more than 6.0 yards per attempt; 13-4 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play; 12-3 ATS L3 seasons when they outgained their opponent by 2.0 or more yards per play. Northern Illinois is just 2-9 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 28 or more points. On the injury front, the news that Marshall RB Devon Johnson has been upgraded to probable is a significant plus for them. SOS is nearly equal with NIU having only a modest tougher schedule. So, the statistical rankings are comparable and show Marshall to be a vastly superior team. Marshall ranks 5th in scoring offense while NIU ranks 47th and more than 14 points less per game. The Marshall defense ranks 24th allowing 22 PPG while NIU defense ranks 46th allowing 25.3 PPG. NIU runs the ball 63% of the time, which is the 16th highest in the nation. They rank 16th in rushing yards, 13th in rushes per game (47), 24th in yards per rush (5.1). Although NIU doesn't pass that often, when they do they connect on a 60% completion percentage. This combo of run/pass is what has made NIU a very tough to beat in their conference. However, Marshall has elite coverage CB and LB, who also maintain excellent gap discipline. This combo will most assuredly disrupt NIU offense and their ability to move the chains and produce drives ending in scores. This game will not be about how many sacks or interceptions Marshall produces, but rather how many times they force NIU into third and long situations. Take Marshall.

25* graded play on the Nevada Wolf Pack as they take on Ul-Lafayette in the first scheduled bowl game of the 2014-2015 post season set to start at 11:00 AM. The simulator shows a high probability that Nevada will win this game by four or more points. The following game situations match my projections for the outcomes within this game. Nevada is a perfect 5-0 ATS L3 seasons when they have allowed 5.0 to 5.5 yards per play; 12-2 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 5.5 to 6.0 net passing yards. Further, Nevada is the third best team in the nation in red zone scoring at 94%. ULL runs the ball far more than they pass it. Their ground attack ranks 25th gaining 228 rushing yards per game. Nevada's defensive personnel are much better than advertised at run stop and many of the players have positive grades over several of the recent games. Last, Nevada played a monumentally more difficult schedule this season. When adjusting for the SOS, Nevada is significantly better on both sides of the ball. The biggest advantage is on offense with their passing attack, especially in play action. Nevada quarterback Cody Fajardo has quietly been one of the most dynamic players in college football over the past couple of seasons. He has a 123 QBR and has completed 60% of his passes for 2370 yards and 18 TD. He has spread the ball around significantly led by Jerico Richardson (53, 626), Hasaan Henderson (45, 579), Richy Turner (57, 537), and TE Jared Gipson (32, 282). LLU cannot double team any one of these receivers as Fajardo will check off the double team and find the best target. Take Nevada. 

50* graded play on Boise State as they take on Fresno State in the Mountain West Championship game set to start at 10:00 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Boise will win this game by 27 or more points. It is rare that I get down on a double digit favorite, but when I do it is valid across the board. This game is major mismatch. Under the new College Football Playoff system, the highest-ranked conference champion from the Mountain West, Sun Belt, Mid-American, American Athletic and Conference USA plays in the either Fiesta Bowl, Cotton Bowl or Peach Bowl on Jan. 1. So, knowing the outcome a win produces for this team is a huge motivator. I strongly believe that the coaching staff is using this tool to refocus their players on the opponent. That is ironic, but in many thing sin life, knowing the reward ahead of completing the task can be a huge and powerful force. Fresno is improved since the beginning of the season and have earned their way to this game. However, they simply do not have the defensive presence nor depth in personnel to contain a strong Boise offense for four quarters. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 36-11 ATS mark for 36-11 ATS and 77% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BOISE ST) with an elite offense averaging 6.4 or more yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 50% of the plays made have covered the spread by 7+ points. Here is a second system that has produced a 35-8 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BOISE ST) that is an elite offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game and after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. It's a statistical variation of the first system, but still reinforces my belief that Boise will cover easily. Given the matchups, it is a near certainty that Boise will score 28 or more points. In past games, FSU is 1-5 ATS this seasons when allowing 28+ points. Further, they are 0-4 ATS this season and 8-28 ATS since 1996 when they have been outgained by 2.0 yards per play. Take Boise State. 

25* graded play on Wisconsin as they take on Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game starting at 8:17 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Wisconsin will win this game by 9 or more points. If the third string QB situation isn't bad enough for OSU, they still have defend one of the best ground attacks in the nation. Melvin Gordon is having a Heismann year gaining 2260 yards and averaging 8.0 YPC and 26 TD. He also has three receiving scores on 17 catches. Corey Clement  has 830 rushing yards and 6.5 YPC with 10 receptions and a 1 TD. I see the OSU defensive front steadily getting worn down over the course of the game. This style of play will also allow Wisconsin to control the tempo of the game and gain a sizable advantage in TOP. Wisconsin is a solid  11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) facing strong offensive teams scoring 31 or more points/game over the last three seasons. OSU under the leadership of Myer is just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. Wisconsin is 16-5 ATS L3 seasons when gaining 6.0+ rushing yards per carry; 18-4 ATS L3 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. Take Wisconsin. 

25* graded play on the Florida State Seminoles as they take on Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 8 or more points. Seriously folks. Whether you are a fan or hater of the FSU football program, no one can argue the injustice served by the playoff committee in having TCU jump over them in the rankings. How can a well educated panel put a team that has 28 straight wins and a superior SOS to a 1-loss TCU squad. So, this has to be the BEST bulletin board material possible for the FSU team and I fully expect them to come and finally play 4 strong quarters and destroy Georgia Tech. I see FSU scoring a minimum of 28 points. In past games, G-Tech is a money burning 2-12 ATS over the past 3 seasons when allowing 28+ or more points. Moreover, they are 0-4 ATS L3 seasons and 5-20 ATS since 1992 when allowing 25 to 41 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-2 mark for 92% winners using the money line 1992. Play on neutral field favorites using the money line (FLORIDA ST) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games. I am seeing -180 on the money line ands if you are a money line player, I see no reason not to take the plunge. I would suggest making a risk play though where you wager $2500 to win $1400 if you prefer the money line strategy. I am making this play using the line. We all know G-tech has a very strong ground attack, but they have not played against a defense with the speed, quickness, and athleticism of FSU. Defending the read-option and triple option ground attacks requires gap discipline and solid angles in pursuit. Both I see FSU possessing and being able to execute well. Further, I also believe that FSU will be able to get Tech into much longer third down situations, which allows FSU to give Tech different and varying looks pre snap. Tech ranks best in the nation converting third downs and is in large part because they get into a majority of third-and-short situations. FSU will not allow that to happen. Tech is very vulnerable to the FSU passing attack and this is the area where I feel FSU could get out to an rare two or three score lead in the first half. Take Florida State. 

25* graded play on the Oklahoma Sooners as they take on Oklahoma State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 27 points. This is a mismatch on both sides of the ball. Truly, the only factor standing in the way of a Sooner cover is by them making mistakes that would provide State with a short field.  Sooner offense ranks 11th in the nation in scoring offense, 16th in yards-per-game, 10th in points-per-play, 9th in yards-per-play, 8th in rushing yards per game, and best allowing a sack on just 1.78% of the plays run. Cowboy defense ranks a terrible 93th in scoring defense, 93rd in yards allowed, 83rd in yards-per-play, 50th in rushing yards allowed, and 124th in passing yards allowed. On the other side of the ball, I see a Sooner defense that will dominate the Cowboy offense. Cowboys have struggled all season and rank just 84th in scoring offense, 103 in yards-per-game, 102nd in yards-per-play, 103rd in rushing yards, and 62nd in passing yards. Sooner defense ranks a solid 33rd in scoring defense, 28th in yards-per-play, 9th in rushing yards allowed. Sooners can easily force Cowboys to try and move the chains through the air and I expect Sooner defense to make plays and produce several turnovers. I certainly see the Sooner offense scoring 28 or more points. Note that Cowboys are just 5-14 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 28+ points and are 1-5 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 35 to 42 points. I also believe that Sooner ground attack will gain around 300 yards. In past games, Cowboys are 5-16 ATS since 1992 when allowing >6.0 yards per rush. Sooners are 8-1 ATS L3 seasons and 23-7 ATS since 1992 when gaining >6.0 yards per rush; 12-3 ATS L3 seasons when gaining >6.5 yards-per-play L3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-19 ATS mark for 72% winners since 1992. Play on a home team (OKLAHOMA) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in two straight games and is now facing an opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. Take the Oklahoma Sooners.

25* graded play on UCF as they take on ECU in American Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET and will be televised on ESPN/Watch ESPN media outlets.  The simulator shows a high probability that UCF will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Clearly a matchup of ECU offensive strength against UCF defensive strength. I strongly believe that the UCF defense will win the battle at the LOS. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-14 ATS mark for 74% winners since 2008.  Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival and is now facing an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 31 or more points. UCF is on a very nice run posting a perfect 9-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two seasons. ECU is a money burning  3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Take UCF. 

25* graded play on Kansas as they take on Kansas State in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at 4:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Kansas will lose this game by fewer than 24 points. This game is a near match to the 25* shocker I had on Kansas when they nearly took out TCU. They led that game 27-17 entering the 4th quarter. I am not suggesting at all that you will see the same sort of game, but I do strongly believe Kansas can match up with them and compete for the entire game. Now, you may point out that Kansas was destroyed last week by Oklahoma in a 44-7 route. However, Kansas is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a loss by 35 or more points over the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-12 ATS mark for 76% winners since 19912. This system has posted a 10-2 ATS mark the last five seasons and perfect 3-0 ATS the last three seasons. Play on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (KANSAS) after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game and with eight or more offensive starters including the QB returning from last year's squad. Kansas has been steadily improving on offense and I believe they can compete against a K-State team that just might more focused on next week's potential showdown with Baylor. Take Kansas.

25* graded play on Penn State University as they host Michigan State in Happy Valley in Big Ten Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that PSU will keep this game to fewer than 10 points. If you believe in the upset adding a 3* play using the money line makes perfect sense. The PSU defense is the most under rated group of defenders not only in the Big Ten, but the nation. They rank best allowing just 267 yards per game, third in scoring defense, 6th in points per play allowed, best allowing just 3.9 yards per play, send allowing just 27% third down conversions, and 5th allowing just 5.7 yards per pass. Certainly they will be severely tested by a strong MSU offensive attack, but I firmly believe PSU will win the 'war'. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-10 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and is now facing an opponent after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. 48% of the plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. Take Penn State. 

25* graded play on the Mississippi as they take on Mississippi State in SEC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Ole Miss will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a very strong 25-7 mark using the Money Line and has made 24 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a solid +121 DOG play and is a perfect 2-0 this season.  Play on a road team using the money line (MISSISSIPPI ST) after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game and is now facing an opponent after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game. Based on the summary of projections, I am confident Rebels will score at least 28 points. In past games, Rebels are a solid 5-2 ATS this season, 18-5 ATS the L3 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. I also see them having a monster day on offense and will gain 400 to 450 total yards. This has been a rare occurrence for the team, but when they do achieve this elite level of offensive production, they are a  6-1 ATS L3 seasons. In the current season they are 4-1 ATS. I simply do not see this team as one that is out of gas, especially playing this heated rival and a chance to knock them out of the playoff. Take the Rebels. 

25* graded play on Arkansas as they take on Missouri in SEC action set to start at 2:30 PM ET.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 72-28 ATS mark for 72% winners since 2008. This system is an impressive 21-7 ATS this season and 54-15 ATS over the past three seasons. 45% of all of these plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a good offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. Here is a second system that has gone 36-13 ATS for 74% winners since 2008. 56% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS) off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, after the first month of the season. Arkansas is playing well and certainly will be a contender next season. They continue to build toward that future. They are also a resounding 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers this season. I always go back to by 25* winner with Arkansas when they went on the road and nearly took then no-1 Miss State into Overtime. They had not won an SEC game in nearly two seasons, but were only installed as 11 point road favorites in that game. This simply reflects how deep the SEC is right now and how incredibly tough the SEC West Division has been this season. Arkansas' running game is quite good and Missouri has had immense trouble against these type of squads. In fact, since Pinkel became HC , his Tigers are a money burning  3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games facing solid rushing teams averaging >=200 rushing yards/game. Take Arkansas. 

25* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Western Michigan in MAC Conference action set to start at 11:00 AM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that NIU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like making this a combination wager using a 21* wager on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Three teams are tied atop the MAC West Division at 6-1: Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Toledo. All three take the field Friday and obviously one of these teams will be eliminated from that race. NIU simply has to win this game and they claim the West Title and will play East winner Bowling Green. Toledo is the third team in the mix and they need loss by NIU and a win over EMU, who has just one conference win. WMU needs to win and then hope for the highly improbable upset by EMU over Toledo. So, I believe the reality of the situation is that the NI players simply know that no matter what happens in their game, Toledo is just not going to lose to EMU. So, you have one team that knows if they win they are in and the other knowing the chances for a Conference Championship game are very slim. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 87-45 ATS mark for 66% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites om conference matchups (W MICHIGAN) in a game involving two mistake-free teams committing

25* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on TCU in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Normally, I would consider a combination wager consisting of a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line, but the risk/reward profile just does not validate the added risk. So, simply stick with a 25* play using the line. What I do like, though is adding a 10* play using the 'over' for this contest. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2003. Play against road favorites (TCU) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after a win by 6 or less points. During this win streak ATS, one of the winners was the 25* play on +28 1/2 point dog Kansas, who led 27-17 in the fourth quarter against TCU. Kansas ended up losing 34-30 but easily covered the huge number. Both teams played 12 days ago and will be a full strength and this helps Texas far more than it does TCU. Since losing 23-0 at K-State October 25, Texas has ripped off three impressive wins and covers where both the offense and defense played at elite levels. Most notable was the marked improvement in the ground attack and the run defense. These are the two ingredients necessary for a dog to pull off a big time upset of a ranked opponent. TCU ranks second in scoring offense and 7th in passing yards. Texas defense is 4th best against the run allowing just 3.9 yards per rush. Take the Longhorns.

50* graded play on the UCLA Bruins as they take on USC Trojans in a huge PAC-12 Conference game set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by at least 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 43-11 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2003. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (USC) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals and is now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. The following game situations match my expectations for what will occur in the game. UCLA is 2-0 ATS this season, 7-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 25-6 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 450 to 500 offensive yards. I also see UCLA scoring at least 28 points. USC is a miserable 1-3 ATS this season, 3-11 ATS the past three seasons, and 15-60 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Further, head coach Jim More, JR. has a great history of preparing his team when facing an elite foe. He has posted a 9-2 ATS when playing against a strong team winning between 60% to 75% of their games as the coach of UCLA. Two of the best QB's in the nation square off in this game with UCLA's Hundley and USC's Kessler. I give the advantage though to Hundley with his duel threat and experience under center. A matchup worth watching in this game is how I see UCLA being able to neutralize USC's best defensive player in DE Williams. UCLA has a great running back in Paul Perkins, who ranks second in the PAC-12 gaining 117 yards-per-game. The UCLA team ranks second in the conference and 27th in the nation gaining 217 rushing yards per game. Hundley is first in the nation in completion percentage and given the solidi ground attack will enjoy plenty of time int he pocket in play action. His ability to extend the play further is also a huge advantage for his receivers to create separation and make big plays downfield. USC will get their points as well, but I just do not see them being able to keep pace with the UCLA offense. Take the Bruins. 

15* graded play on Tulane as they take on East Carolina in American Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Tulane will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. ECU had some impressive wins early int eh season, but that has been more than offset with two consecutive losses that have taken them out of any contention for the Conference Title.  Tulane has struggled on offense this season, but they have a strong secondary that i see matching up well against the ECU passing attack that ranks 2nd in passing yards in the nation. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting an amazing 25-2 ATS mark for 93% winners since 2003 and has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS over the last three seasons. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ECU) that are off 1 or more straight 'overs' and is an explosive offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing a struggling offensive team scoring between 16 and 21 PPG after 7+ games. Take Tulane plus the points.  

15* graded play on Rutgers as they take on Michigan State in Big Ten Conference action set to start at Noon ET. Although this is a home game, it is one where MSU could very easily fall flat and not take Rutgers seriously. They lost to Ohio State two weeks ago ending any chance at a National Championship or entry into the playoff format. They held it together last week against Maryland, but now two weeks past the big upset loss and playing what appears to be a vastly inferior foe, they are ripe for Rutgers to give them a test. Rutgers is bowl eligible in their first season in the Big Ten, but a big effort here - even in a loss - would make them an attractive team for many of the pre-New Years bowls. Rutgers has a sneaky-good passing attack that ranks 19th in the nation gaining 8.3 passing yards per attempt. Their offense is designed to run first and average 57% run plays. In play action, Rutgers has been outstanding and this is a real weakness in the MSU secondary. Ohio State repeatedly used play action and little bubble screens to generate big plays after the catch and keep the chains moving downfield. I certainly don't expect Rutgers to execute to that degree of success, but will be far more successful than most observers believe possible. I expect them to gain between 8.0 and 8.5 net passing yards per attempt. In past games, MSU is just 3-16 ATS when they have allowed 8.0 to 8.5 net passing yards in games played since 1992.  Take Rutgers.

15* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Kansas in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 27 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-12 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2008. Play against any team (KANSAS) in a conference matchup that is a struggling rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 3 to 3.5 YPR. The following game situations match my projections for the game. Oklahoma is a resounding 3-1 ATS this season, 10-1 ATS the past three seasons, and 63-16 ATS since 1992 when they have out gained their opponent by 2.0 or more yards per play; 4-2 ATS this season, 11-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 51-21 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more yards per play. Sooners roll big.

15* graded play on San jose State as they take on Utah State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 9:30 PM ET and will be seen on ESPN2/WatchESPN.  The simulator shows a high probability that San Jose State will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Here are a few historical precedents that support this play. SJS is a solid 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after scoring 6 points or less last game since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. Utah State has lost three quarterbacks in the month of October. Feshman Kent Myers has done a tremendous job coming in off the bench and has won three straight games. He has thrown for 531 yards on a remarkable 43-of-57 passing and a 173 QB rating. however, he has been sacked 8 times and you can bet SJS will be bring pressure from a wide array of angles. There is enough game film now that SJS can fully prepare for him. Moreover, his average throw has not been all that vertical. If you factor out the lone 70 yard completion his passes have been short. This also reflects that Utah State has done well after the catch and gained most of the passing yards after the catch. I fully expect SJS to tackle well and play a very disciplined scheme tonight that will make if difficult for Utah State to keep the chains moving. Take San jose State.

25* graded play on Oregon State as they take on Arizona State in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:45 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will lose this game by fewer than seven points and have a great shot at a shocking upset win over no.7 ranked ASU. The media reports have outlined the path for the Sun Devils to gain a berth in the NCAA playoff Championship format. However, this path focuses not on the present,but rather the last game of the regular season against Arizona and then with a win the PAC-12 Championship game against No.3 Oregon. After five straight wins with four over ranked opponents it will be very difficult for ASU to not look ahead over a 4-5 Oregon State team. Oregon State has a wide open offense that ranks 18th in completion percentage and 30th in passing yards per game. ASU has been exploited in the back end of the defense in nearly every game and I fully expect this will be the case tonight. ASU ranks 89th in passing yards allowed and 86th getting an interception on just 2.2% of all opponent passing plays. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 26-8 mark using the MONEY LINE for 77% winners and has made 34 units/unit wagered averaging a +160 DOG play. Play on a home team using the money line (OREGON ST) that are off two straight losses to conference rivals allowing 31 or more points in those two losses and with 5+ more defensive starters returning than opponent. Further, I expect the OSU passing game to average between 7.5 to 8.0 net passing yards and to score at least 28 points. Good news in previous games. OSU is a solid 3-0 ATS when gaining 7.5 to 8.0 net passing yards in games played over the  last three seasons and 13-6 ATS when scoring 28 or more points in games played over the last three seasons. OSU Senior QB, Sean Mannion holds the PAC-12 Conference passing record and has a very strong 142 QB rating in home games this season. Last week he completed 31-of-41 passes for 419 yards and earned an amazing 170 QB rating. I don't see ASU being able to contain Mannion and the passing attack. Take Oregon State. 

25* graded play on Maryland as they host Michigan State in BIG TEN Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Maryland will cover the current 12 point spread rather easily. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play against road favorites (Michigan State) that are elite offensive teams gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after coming a poor defensive performance allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. 50% of these plays made based on the system criteria covered by more than 7 points. Spartans coming off a very emotional loss to Ohio State that eliminated their playoff hopes and also a Big Ten Championship. I fully expect the letdown factor to be quite strong and evident. Maryland is coming a near opposite type of win going on the road to Penn State and winning 20-19. Maryland defense was quite strong allowing just 42 rushing yards on 41 attempts and 177 yards passing yards. They also forced 4 turnovers. Take Maryland. 

15* graded play on Arkansas as they take on LSU in SEC action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will win this game and end their losing ways in SEC Conference action. I had played on Arkansas in their easy cover and near-miss at Mississippi State a few weeks ago. It simply demonstrates the immense depth and level of play inherent int he SEC. Arkansas, who has not won a Conference game in nearly two full seasons was installed as just an 11 point dog to the best team in the nation. Now they catch LSU off of two very emotional and physically pounding games. The last one an OT loss to Alabama in Death Valley. Losing in OT is one of the most difficult experiences coaching staffs have to overcome to get their college players prepared for the next game. I don't see that happening and I definitely see Arkansas winning. Since Miles has been the HC at LSU he is just 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) after a 2 game home stand; 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) facing solid rushing teams averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry. Take Arkansas. 

15* graded play on Alabama as they host Mississippi State in a huge SEc Conference matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Tide will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-13 ATS mark good for 75% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ALABAMA)  that are off one or more consecutive 'unders' and in a game involving two very good teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more PPG  and after seven or more games have been played in the regular season. 50% of all these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match my expectations for the outcome of this game. State is just 4-9 ATS the past three seasons and 26-78 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points; 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 8-19 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 35 to 42 points in a game; 2-6 ATS the L3 seasons and 9-36 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 6.5 or more yards per play. Alabama is a solid 5-2 ATS the L3 seasons and 33-11 ATS since 1992 when they scored 35 to 42 points. On the fundamental side, the execution has been far superior in home games than road games for the Tide. This is simply because of fan noise disrupting the sideline audibles and read communications from OC Kiffin. This will not be the case playing at home where the students know they need to be quiet while their offense is on the field. You can bet though when State has the ball, the fans will be in an absolute frenzy. Alabama in a blowout win. 

15* graded play on Kansas as they take on TCU in a BIG-12 Conference matchup. This is simply far too many points and reflects the public's enthusiasm in playing the hot team. The TCU bandwagon has now grown to extreme levels where failure to cover situations run high. The line is currently at 28 1/2 and I see TCU willing his game by 21 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-5 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play against road favorites (TCU) that are excellent offensive teams gaining >=440 YPG) and is now facing an average offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. This fact serves to reinforce by projection that Kansas will keep this a 21 point or less type of game. Take Kansas.

25* graded play on Virginia Tech as they take on Duke in a massive ACC showdown set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that V-tech can upset Duke and gain a valuable win that will certainly help their bowl game selection. The betting flows are certainly supportive despite the line moving from 6 to 4 1/2 points. The reason is that there has been a very high level of public bets being made on Duke. In fact, more than 76% of these wagers have been on Duke. Normally, we see the line go in the same direction as the irrational exuberance public betting. However, the big player (sharps) are placing large wagers on the Hokies that more than offsets the small public bets and has caused the line to move modestly lower. With the decline, the public will level of interest will grow with the believe that the line still offers a great bargain. Remember, that all of the research, game matchup analyses, wagering flows, and technical trends and systems serve ONLY to reinforce and to bring a form of logic to making this educated play. I have a system from the database that features an important game situation and the criteria that is set up for this play. Play on a road team using the money line (VIRGINIA TECH) in a conference matchup that is a solid good passing team gaining between 230 and 275 passing yards per game and is now facing an average passing defense allowing between 175 and 230 passing yards per game AND after more than seven regular season games have been completed. What is most impressive with this money line system is that it was made 62 units/unit wagered averaging a +145 DOG play since 2008. V-tech will be successful running the ball and I expect them to get 150 rushing yards. V-Tech has been a great money earner going 12-4 against the money line in road games when they rush for 3.5 to 4 yards per attempt since 1992. So, the combination of a solid ground attack will open up play action for vertical routes that will be in man or bracket coverages. Take Virginia Tech.

25* graded play on Southern Cal as they take on California in Pac-12 Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 17 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-4 ATS for 86% winners since 1992. Play against road underdogs (CALIFORNIA) that is an excellent offensive team gaining >=6.2 YPP and is now facing an average defense allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 YPP and after 7+ games, and after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last two games. 68% of these plays covered the spread by seven or more points. Cal is a horrid defensive team while USC sports one of the best defensive units in the nation. Cal ranks 125th in scoring defense allowing 43 PPG, 128th allowing 554 yards per game, 111th with a 0.492 points -per-play ratio, and 128th allowing 401 passing yards per game. The USC defense ranks 24th in scoring defense, 18th with a 0.286 points-per-play ratio, and 16th allowing just 33% of opponent third down conversions. Cal has a strong offense, but only marginally better than the USC unit. The vast difference is between the defenses. Further, CAL has not faced a defensive unit as fast, quick, and athletic as USC has become this season. CAL is an imperfect  0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better over the last 3 seasons. USC is a near-perfect 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. terrible defensive teams who give up 37 or more points/game since 1992. Take Southern California.

15* graded play on Kent State as they take on Bowling Green in MAC Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. I also like a 5* play on the first-half line that I will review later in the report. The simulator shows a high probability that KS will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Given the public betting flows that are reaching irrational exuberance levels on BG I expect this line to climb higher possibly getting to 14 1/2. So, wait and see what happens. I don't expect significant sharp action to take place on a MAC game, but it will not come till late this afternoon if at all. It's not that I expect we will need the extra points, but it never hurts to shop the line and get the best available, especially when there is confidence the line will move in our favor. It is rare that I ever suggest a first half play, but I strongly believe there is an added opportunity tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 39-13 ATS for 75% winners since 2003. Play on road underdogs of 6 to 11.5 points using the first half line (KENT ST) in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing between 28 and 34 PPG. Kent State may be the doormat in the MAC this season, but they are continuing to play hard and compete for the full game. Their passing defense has improved while BG's offensive pass attack has all but disappeared. BG was lighting up the scoreboard with a strong passing attack, but over the last three weeks it has dropped off a cliff. They gained 260 yards on 20-for-39 passing at Ohio University three weeks ago. Gained just 139 yards on 20-for-33 passing in a loss at home to Western Michigan. Just last week gained only 170 passing yards on 17-for-34 passing in a 27-10 win at Akron.  I expect the KS secondary to play well and make it difficult for BG to move the chains tonight. Take Kent State. 

25* graded play on Ohio State as they take on Michigan State in BIG Ten Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will win this game. I like making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. This ratio of ML/Line serves to maximize the total rate of return of the game expectations and probabilities. This marks only the third time under HC Meyer that OSU is installed as a dog and the first time since November 7, 2012. They were installed as 2 point dogs at Wisconsin and won 21-14 in OT and won at Michigan State 17-16 installed as 2 1/2 point dogs. MSU is excellent on both sides of the ball. Spartans are averaging the fifth-most points (45.5) and the ninth-most yards per game (515.2) in the FBS. However, OSU brings a secondary that can eliminate the Spartans vertical routes. OSU has allowed the fewest plays (17) of 20 yards or more in the nation this season.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 80-39 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2008. Play on a road team (OHIO ST) after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games and with a winning record on the season. Here is a second system that has gone 35-12 ATS for 75% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (MICHIGAN ST) after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games and is now facing an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. 56% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points and serves to reinforce my belief that OSU will win this game. Again, Meyer has been a great coach, especially when installed as a DOG. He is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992 and 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1992. I believe the OSU defense is a better defense than the Spartans and one that MSU has not faced in terms of speed, athleticism, and gap discipline this season. From the start of the game, look for OSU defensive front to get penetration and push the MSU offensive line off of the LOS. The OSU defensive front is excellent at securing blockers and not allowing them to get to the second level allowing LB to fill gaps and make stops for minimal gains. Also, if OSU gets penetration with only the down lineman and does not need to bring blitz pressure, it all but eliminates play action and the vertical MSU passing attack. Take Ohio State. 

25* graded play on Alabama as they take on LSU in 'Death Valley' at night starting at 8:00 PM ET. I mention this fact only to illustrate the reason why Alabama is favored on the road in this difficult venue - arguably the toughest in football. I also believe that LSU has had their share of some emotional wins and last week's late 4th quarter win over Mississippi is certainly one of them that enters into LSU folklore. No doubt this is the best opponent that LSU will face yet this season and one that is better on both sides of the ball.  The simulator shows a high probability that Alabama will win this game by 10 or more points. LSU ranks 17th in the nation with a 0.273 points-per-play ratio. But, Alabama ranks 2nd with a 0.216 points-per-play ratio. On offense Alabama ranks 20th with a 0.492 points-per-play ratio while LSU is 37th posting a 0.419 ratio. Lsu ranks 68th gaining 393 offensive yards per game while Alabama ranks 10th gaining 505 offensive yards per game. The most important stat is third down conversion where LSU ranks 99th converting 35.2% of those situations and Alabama ranking 2nd converting 55%. I see the Alabama defense putting LSU in difficult third down situations and more that happens, the greater the margin that Alabama will win by. I know the history of night games and how frenzied the stadium fans will be for this contest, but Alabama just has too many weapons on both sides of the ball for LSU to overcome. Even the fourth down magic and trick plays from HC Miles will not be enough. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-10 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2003. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (LSU) off two straight wins against conference rivals and now facing an opponent off a double digit road win. Alabama is expected to score at least 28 points. LSU is a miserable 0-2 ATS this season, 0-4 ATS the past three seasons and 11-53 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Take Alabama. 

15* graded play on Texas as they host West Virginia in a Big-12 matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 3 points and has a great shot at getting a much needed home win. Unless the line moves to 3.5 points, I don't see any reason to place a combination wager using the money line and line for this DOG. The risk/reward and DOG ML just don't provide enough return on investment to be valid. The following game situations match the projections for the game. WVU is just  1-6 against the money line (-7.3 Units) when their defense forces 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 13-21 against the money line (-15.3 Units) when they gain 5 to 5.5 total yards per play since 1992; Texas is a solid  26-11 against the money line (+15.1 Units) when they rush for 150 to 200 yards since 1992;  6-2 against the money line (+7.6 Units) when they commit 2 turnovers over the last 2 seasons; 27-9 against the money line (+16.6 Units) when they force and commit the same number of turnovers since 1992. Take Texas.

25 * graded play on Syracuse as they take on Duke in a ACC Conference action set to start at 12:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Syracuse will win this game. Given this favorable projection, I suggest making this a combination wager comprised of a 21* play using the line and a 4* amount using the money line. This combination or ratio of Ml and Line amounts maximizes the total rate of return of this opportunity based on the game projections. Duke is on a 3-game winning streak, but were outgained in each of those wins by a minimum of 100 yards. Duke has risen to No. 22 in the national polls thanks in large part to their great focused attention to detail. They don't make mistakes either by penalty, turnovers, or allowing sacks. However, teams like Duke can't always rely on mistake-free football to win games continuously. The matchup I really like is the Syracuse defense against the Duke ground attack. Duke ranks 13th gaining 5.7 YPR and 38th at 203 YPG. Syracuse defense ranks 16th allowing just 3.3 YPR and 23rd allowing 123 yards per game. Stopping the ground attack and forcing Duke into more passing downs is a great game plan to defeat them. Duke has no deep vertical threat as evidenced by their 5.5 yards-per-pass that ranks 122nd in the nation. Syracuse will put complete pressure at the LOS and use mostly cover-1 on early downs. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-8 ATS mark for 80% winners since 2003. Play against road favorites (DUKE) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 and 28 PPG and after a win by six or less points. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points. I also see Syracuse scoring 28 or more points. In past games where they have scored 28+ points they are 12-2 ATS over the L3 seasons; 2-0 ATS this season, and 90-23 since 1996. Duke is a money burning 5-10 ATS L3 seasons when allowing 28 or more points. Take Syracuse. 

15* graded play on Oklahoma as they take on Baylor in BIG-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 10 or more points. Baylor has the most touchdown drives of 1 minute or less (17) and is tied for most touchdown drives of 2 minutes or less (28) this season. The Bears have more 2-minute touchdown drives than 51 FBS teams have total touchdown drives. Here again, is the superior coaching and prepartion they provide in big conference showdowns. Bob Stoops is 16-3 at home against ranked opponents in his career. Among coaches with at least 10 such games, no active coach has a better winning percentage than Stoops. Stoops is a solid Stoops is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game; 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse; 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-9 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites (OKLAHOMA) in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP) and after gaining 525 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 56% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Take the Sooners.

15* graded play on Georgia as they take on Kentucky in SEC action set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Georgia will win this game by 14 or more points. They had a horrid game last week in their loss to Florida and I fully expect them to bounce back with a great effort today. They are still in the hunt to with the East Division and make it to the SEC Championship game and they need impressive efforts to impress the playoff committee to rise back in the rankings. Georgia is a solid 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-20 ATS mark for 64% winners since 2008. Play on any team (GEORGIA) that is an excellent rushing team gaining >=4.8 YPR and is now facing a team with a struggling rushing defense allowing between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR and after allowing 275 or more rushing yards last game. Take Georgia. 

15* graded play on Wyoming as they take on Utah State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Wyoming will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at securing a big home win. Given this favorable situation, I suggest making a combination wager comprised of a 12* play using the line and a 3* amount using the money line. I believe you will be able to secure a +250 money line figure for this opportunity. Never hurts to work the order and get the best possible money line. I do see a modest chance that the line could shift to 8, which in turn would make the money line closer to the +260 level. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-5 mark for 86% winners and has made 27 units/unit wagered over the past 10 seasons. Play on a home team using the money line (WYOMING) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival and with eight defensive starters returning. Granted, there are injuries to these defensive units in any given season. Yet, when a team starts with this many returning starters they are able to recover more quickly when an injury does occur. Wyoming is also a solid 24-7 ATS (+16.3 Units) after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Wyoming team also knows that this is essentially a bowl game meaning if they win this game, they then have a weak New Mexico team on the road in the season finale, that would make them 6 win bowl eligible. They also face the 6-e Boise State Broncos next week at home and is also a game they will be home dogs, but a game that do have the potential to win as well. Path is much easier with a win tonight. Take Wyoming. 

50* graded play on UCLA as they take on Arizona in PAC-12 action set to start at 10:30 PM ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by 10 or more points. The Bruins (6-2, 3-2) haven't lost three in a row at home since going 0-5 at the Coliseum in 1971. They moved their home games to Pasadena permanently in 1982. They are in fifth place, but one game out of first and can leapfrog one of the teams they are chasing in Arizona with a win tonight. UCLA dropped five straight in this series before Hundley joined the program two years ago. He has thrown for 515 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions with a 77.4 completion percentage in two consecutive wins over the Wildcats. He is also leading all FBS QB with a 76.8% completion percentage on first downs. Further, he gets a ton of time in the pocket due the strong ground attack that ranks a PAC-12 high 4.5 yards per rush between the tackles. They can also spread the field and open up the middle for both the ground attack and play action with high percentage opportunities over the middle of the field. Then you add the fact that Hundley is the PAC-12 leading rushing QB with 415 rushing yards and you can readily see how difficult, if not impossible, it will be for Arizona to keep them contained. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-13 ATS mark for 75% winners since 1992. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference tilts (ARIZONA) in a game involving two explosive offensive teams scoring >=34 PPG. 55% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points. The following game situations match the projections I have for this game. UCLA is a solid 9-2 ATS L3 seasons when they have gained 6.5 or more yards per play. Arizona is just 4-14 ATS when allowing 28 or more points L3 seasons and 0-4 ATS when allowing 450 to 500 total offensive yards L3 seasons. Take Arizona. 

15* graded play on Oklahoma State as they take on Kansas State in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. Given this huge five-pack of 15* Titans, I am providing just a brief for each game highlighting the ket technicals and game situations for each play.  The simulator shows a high probability that Ok State will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-7 ATS mark for 81% winners since 1992. 53% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points.  Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (KANSAS ST) after allowing 9 points or less last game and is now facing an opponent after 2 straight losses by 17 or more points. Take the Cowboys from Oklahoma State. 

15* graded play on the Navy as they take on Notre Dame in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Navy will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Notre Dame last played two weeks ago in their very emotonal loss to FSU in a game they dominated in the first half and then let get away from them in the second half. The way the game ended as well is an 'event' that is very close to the emotional overtime loss that College teams endure. Further, Navy runs a very complex ground attack and I have to admit, I don't see Notre Dame being fully prepared for this game. In their history they have essentially never done well against strong ground attacks. In fact, they are just 5-24 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed an opponent 200 to 250 rushing yards in a game. Take the Navy Midshipmen

15* graded play on the Stanford Cardinal as they take on the Oregon Ducks in PAC-12 conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Stanford will lose this game by fewer than 7 points.  Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 24-2 ATS mark for an incredible 92.3% winners since 2008. Play on any team (STANFORD) average rushing team gaining between 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and is now facing a poor rushing defense allowing between 4.3 to 4.8 YPR; after 7+ games and after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. 73% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points and this underscores my strong belief that Stanford can win this game. I like using a combination wager comprised of a 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line on Stanford. 

25* graded play on Arkansas as they take on NO.1-ranked Mississippi State in SEC action set to start at 7:15 PM ET and will be televised on ESPN2/Watch ESPN.  I also like adding a 3* amount using the Money Line for a total risk of 28* units. The simulator shows a high probability that Arkansas will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. It is hard to actually see Arkansas winning this game, but many of you know that about once a year I have had a 17+ DOG win outright. I always remember when Tebow lost to Mississippi 31-30  at home in the Swamp and were installed as 24 point dogs September 27, 2008. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a losing record of 27-51 for just 35% winners, BUT has made a whopping 77 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged a remarkable +475 DOG play. I am seeing +350 right now for the Razorbacks. Play on road underdogs of +315 or higher using the money line (ARKANSAS) after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and is now facing an opponent after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games.  Here is a second system that has gone 107-35 for 75% winners since 2003 and averaged a +105 DOG play. Although the average line of this system does not equal the line for this specific game, there have been a significant number of games wagered that were in the +300 and higher levels. Play against a home team using the money line (MISSISSIPPI ST) after allowing 475 or more total yards/game in their last three games and is now facing an opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. Arkansas is expected to average 7.0 to 7.5 net passing yards per attempt. Not good news for State as they are a horrid 2-10 against the money line (-9.8 Units) when they allow 7 to 7.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992. I relied on the example of one of my biggest upsets I have ever enjoyed, but it also points to how incredibly DEEP the SEC Conference is this season. Arkansas has not won a conference game in quite a long time and are 4-4 on the season with all four losses occurring against SEC foes. They now take to the road to face not only an SEC team, but the NO. 1 ranked team in the nation and yet are installed as barely double digit dogs. Take Arkansas. 

15* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on Georgia in SEC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that the Gators will lose this game by fewer than 13 points. Georgia is off a hard fought 45-32 win at Arkansas. However, I don't expect much positive momentum coming from that game as HC Richt is just 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) off a double digit road win as the coach of Georgia. Further, Georgia is just 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) off a double digit road win since 1992. Florida has been a money making 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992; 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) after a 2 game home stand since 1992. Take the Gators.

15* graded play on Virginia as they take on Georgia Tech on an ACC Conference matchup set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that UVA will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-11 ATS mark for 76% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (GEORGIA TECH) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games and after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. 50% of these games covered the spread by 7 or more points and serves to reinforce my strong view that UVA wins this game. I strongly believe that UVA will score at least 28 points and are 3-0 ATS this season when achieving that level and 7-3 ATS over the past three seasons. Georgia Tech is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992. Take Virginia.

25* graded play on the Temple Owls as they take on the East Carolina Pirates in American Athletic Conference action set to start at Noon ET.   The simulator shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot at winning the game. I like playing this as a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ATS mark for 85% winners since 2008 and is 12-2 ATS over the past three seasons. Play against road favorites (E CAROLINA) that are excellent offensive team gaining >=440 YPG and is now facing a solid offensive team gaining between 330 to 390 YPG and after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. What I like most in this game is Temple has a vastly under rated passing defense. Overall, they rank 33rd allowing 22.8 PPG and 24th in a far more meaningful points-per-play stat of 0.290. ECU is off a 31-21 home win over cellar dweller UCONN and failed to cover as 28 points favorites. In fact, they were tied in the early part of the 4th at 21 points. They had just 1 turnover and are a money burning 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Temple has been nailed by the turnover bug and as their HC coach said in press statements,'just have not played their brand of football'. He also challenged his team this week stating that this is the last top-25 ranked team they will play and that this is a pivotal time'. I have a high level of confidence that Temple will look to win this game and not just show up and attempt to compete with the ranked Pirates. Further, their QB P.J. Walker, who has tossed five picks in the last two games, has learned the hard way that there are times to just simply throw the ball away and move on to the next play. Nearly all of his INT have been a result of trying to create big plays. So, this is a great spot for a team coming off two poor efforts, to come out highly motivated to upset a ranked foe on their home turf. Take Temple. 

25* graded play on Tulane as they take on Cincinnati in American Athletic Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.   The simulator shows a meaningful probability that Tulane will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great opportunity at winning this game. An alternative wager is place a 19* play on the line and a 6* play using he money line. Tulane has enjoyed the month of October and have a very nice 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in October games spanning the last three seasons. Conversely, Cincy HC Tuberville is a money burning 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992. On the injury front, what I really like is the return of Tulane QB Tanner Lee from a shoulder injury and RB Sherman Badie from a ankle strain. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-4 ATS mark for 85% winners since 2003. Play on any team (TULANE)that is an average rushing team (+/- 40 RY/G) and is now facing a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG after 7+ games fo the current season and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. This system has gone 11-0 ATS over the past five seasons. Further, my research and SIM prohjections make very confident that Tulane will score at least 28 points. In past games, Tulane is 7-2 ATS when scoring 28 or more points L3 seasons. Cincy is a money burning 2-7 ATS when allowing 28 or more points over the past three seasons. Take Tulane. 

15* graded play on Florida State as they take on Louisville in NCAAF action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 7 or more points. I also like FSU and the 'over' for a 5* parlay. A more conservative option is play a 15* play on FSU and a 10* play 'over' with no play on the parlay. Much has been said about the manner that FSU has won games and how 'fortunate' they have been to remain undefeated and ranked second in the polls. However, Louisville enters this game unranked and with 2 losses. Further, they have had a weaker SOS than FSU based on the opponents faced. Louisville lost at UVA23-21 and were installed as 4 point road favorites. They also lost at Clemson 23-17 and covered as 9 point road dogs. Louisville ranks very high in the defensive rankings nationally, but again it was done against a far weaker schedule than any SEC ranked team has faced. I mention the SEC as a solid comparison to the athleticism and team speed tat FSU brings to any game they play. In my opinion, FSU has yet to put even 1/2 half of football together at max levels and output. They showed signs of it last week in their 'lucky' win over Notre Dame. FSU was completely dominated in the first half on both sides of the LOS and then made adjustments and completely dominated ND immediately at the start of the second half with near execution perfection on display. What changed at the half, was that Winston significantly cut down the time he held the ball and was getting rid of quickly, in rhythm, and highly accurate. I know Louisville ranks second in scoring defense at 13.7 PPG and best allowing 238 opponent yards per game, and best at just 3.5 YPP allowed, but they have not faced a team like FSU yet this season. Despite, the media attention on FSU being a ranked fraud of sorts, they do rank 12th in the nation with a 0.535 points per play ratio. This is a critical measure of a team's offensive efficiency. This also points out that this ratio also includes the sloppy possessions where the execution is far below average. By deduction then, it magnifies just how incredibly efficient and unstoppable the offense becomes when executing with focus and attention to details. The latter is what I expect to see throughout the entire game. By comparison, Louisville ranks a dismal 89th with a 0.345 PPP ratio and I am confident the FSU defense will do very well in containment and force Louisville to earn their way to the end zone; eliminating the flash vertical score form Louisville's arsenal. Take FSU.

50* graded play on Penn State as they take on Ohio State in BIG Ten Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that PSU will lose this game by fewer than 11 points and has a reasonable shot at a major upset win on national TV. Given this favorable projection, I will suggest making this a combination wager consisting of a 21* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-14 mark using the money line for 76% winners and has made 32 units/unit wagered. Play against a road team using the money line (OHIO ST) that is an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an excellent defensive team allowing

15* graded play on Florida Atlantic as they take on Marshall in Conference-USA action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that FAU will lose this game by fewer than 27 points. Here are some supporting game situations. FAU is a solid  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992. Marshall is undefeated, but their strength of schedule is very, very weak. If they played the schedule that FAU has faced, there is no way that Marshall would still be undefeated. FAU is now seasoned and experienced against some of the elite programs in Nebraska and Alabama. That experience simply minimizes the athleticism that Marshall has at their skill positions. I see this as a 14 to 20 point game and would not be surprised to see this game close at the half. Take Florida Atlantic. 

25* graded play on the Michigan as they take on Michigan State in a huge rivalry in the Big Ten Conference set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Michigan will lose this game by fewer than 15 points. Of note is the fact that Michigan HC Hoke is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached. To date, Michigan has played vastly stronger opposition and I believe this can help significantly in their matchup against MSU. The Spartans defense is quite good and rank high in the top-10 nationally in several key categories. Michigan State has made first contact at or behind the line of scrimmage on 54% of opponents' rushes, the highest percentage for any Power 5 defense. Further, Michigan State is averaging 12.6 total pressures (QB knock downed or hurried) per game this season, second-most among Power 5 schools. Last season the Spartans recorded 17 against Michigan, including seven sacks, the Wolverines' most in any game in the last three seasons. So, the history lesson tells us how good the Spartans defense has been, but this is a rivalry game and Michigan will play far better than last year's humiliation. Revenge is an overused and misunderstood term in sports, but in this case, revenge is  certainly a major factor that will support Michigan. The Wolverine defense is very good in their own right ands rank 7th nationally allowing 301 yards-per-game, 6th allowing 2.7 yards-per-rush; 4th allowing just 93 rushing yards per game. MSU ranks first in the nation in scoring, but I strongly believe that Michigan has the defensive personnel to matchup well and make it difficult for MSU to light up the scoreboard. Take Michigan and the Points. 

15* graded play on Rutgers as they take on Nebraska in Big Ten Conference action set to start at Noon ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Rutgers will lose this game by fewer than 17 points. Nebraska is the better team and you get no argument from me on that fact. However, the line is just vastly inflated and based on the matchups, is more of 13/14 point Nebraska win. Rutgers is a talented squad and have the ability to run a balanced offensive attack and move the chains and will score points. Nebraska will run the ball close to 50 times in this game, but it will not be as easy as past games have been. Rutgers was simply intimidated last week playing at Ohio State and the sell-out massive stadium and the noise levels they generate. Lincoln is no bargain either, but it not nearly the hostile environment that Ohio State was for Rutgers. The matchups point to a much closer and much more competitive game then the line reflects. Take Rutgers. 

15* graded play on the Texas Longhorns as they take on Kansas State in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. Texas HC Strong is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road underdog in all games he has coached;  10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games; 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team winning > 75% of their games; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when facing excellent offensive teams averaging >=6.25 yards/play. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. This also good be an upset as well noting that Texas is 7-1 against the money line (+9.6 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. The Texas pass defense ranks 8th best in the nation allowing only 5.6 yards-per-pass attempt. I strongly believe they match up very well against a K-State team that likes to throw the ball more than run. K-State ranks 10th in the nation averaging 8.9 YPPA, but will struggle against the Texas secondary today. Take the Longhorns. 

25* graded play on Troy as they take on South Alabama in Sun Belt Conference action set to start at 7:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Troy will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. Troy is coming off arguably one of the worst losses in school history. They lost to Appalachian State 53-14 and were installed as 7 1/2 point favorites. Now, they play on a national TV audience ESPNU and I strongly believe they will play extremely well tonight. Despite winning just one game this season, Troy does have a remarkable track record in rebound type games. They are a perfect  6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after allowing 42 points or more last game in games played over the last three seasons. Troy runs a well balanced offensive attack and this style of play is a major problem for the SA defensive unit that is quite good against the run. I strongly believe that Troy will get the ground game going and then you will see a very good freshman QB in Brandon Silvers use play action to complete high percentage passes and keep the chains moving. He has completed 69% of his passes on the season and thank ranks very high in the national rankings both as a player and as team. Further, he has completed 43-60 passes (72%) for 367 yards and 6.12 yards-per-pass attempt. Take Troy.

25* graded play on the Florida State Seminoles when they take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in NCAAF action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 13 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-11 ATS for 76% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites (FLORIDA ST) - off 2 consecutive wins by 10 points or more against a conference rival and is now facing an opponent after a home game where both teams scored 31 or more points. 63% of the games played or 80% of the winning cash tickets covered the spread by 7 or more points and this underscores my belief that FSU will cover this game easily. The SU record is an incredible 41-4 and the average score has been a 46-18 home win. Like so many of you, I am ready to turn the page on Winston. I never condone any behavior by any athlete or programs that would protect their 'entitled' players. FSU is a very respectable university and one that is run with a strong southern moral fiber through it. I know this for fact. I also know that the media and 'haters' are on a witch hunt now to attack a young man. Again, not saying if he got paid for the autographs or not, but how difficult would it be for any of us, to say no time and time again, to agents, brokers, and slime ball web sites, when offered huge amounts of cash - and being a broke college football player. So, before I ever point the finger at anyone, I do try and put myself in their shoes first. If he did violate the school's conduct policy, FSU will do the right thing. Ok, enough of that. What I do see is a matchup where FSU has significant advantages in the speed an quickness departments on both sides of the ball. I just do not see how Notre Dame can overcome this simple fact and be able to dominate even one side of the LOS. No doubt, that FSU will look to spread the field and expose the middle of the ND defense. In the spread, Winston can roll out and elude any pressure and then make easy to complete pass plays or run the ball for significant gains. I don't see how ND defense, although they have been solid so far this season, will get critical stops of first down and force FSU into long situations. Quite frankly, with the speed FSU has on offense, it will be extremely difficult for ND to stop FSU on any down, especially if they are caught in man coverage on the perimeter. I don't liek the media attention on the FSU program anymore than you do. Yet, looking at the facts of this game, the matchups, and the game situations, FSU is the clear play. ND is 1-6 ATS over the past three seasons and 13-63 ATS since 1992 when allowing 28 or more points. Based on the facts, it would be a monumental ND effort for them to contain FSU to fewer than 28 points. Take FSU.

25* graded play on Southern Mississippi as they take to the road to play C-USA rival North Texas set to start at 7:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Southern Miss (SMU) will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot a monumental upset. I see mostly +290 money lines and would look to work to get +300 throughout the day. With the game starting at 7:00 PM ET. I would book this bet with the lines available no later than 5:00 PM ET and the reason is protect yourself from adverse line movements. I have seen situations like this in the past and I expect some heavy flows to begin late afternoon on Southern Mississippi. The public has been steadily feeding North Texas since the line opened with nearly 70% of all wagers on them. At these extremes, it is not unusual to see the 'sharps' come in late. Both teams are average at best running teams. North Texas struggles quite frankly and if you take out the blowout win over a vastly inferior Nicholls State team where they gained 324 yards, they are not impressive at all. What I am greatly impressed with is the SM passing attack led by QB Nick Mullins, who has attained a 199.3 QB rating. He is vastly better than he was in 2013 where he completed 49.3% of his passes, gaining 6.44 YPA with 13 TD and 14 INT and was sacked 25 times. In 2014 he is 142-for-244 for 58% completions and 1604 yards, gaining 6.57 YPA. His reads are vastly better and I strongly believe he will have a huge night against a highly suspect NT secondary. Last week Mullens went 36-for-54 for 426 yards (67% completions) and a 147 QB rating against a much stronger Middle Tennessee State team. SM was installed as 16 1/2 point dogs and nearly pulled off the upset in a shootout type of affair. In fact, the last three weeks have shown marked improvement by Mullens, the OL, and the entire offensive unit ands this builds confidence. Take Southern Mississippi. 

15* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Miami (Ohio) in MAC Conference action set to start at 5:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that NI will win this game by 17 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 46-19 ATS mark for 71% winners since 2008. Play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI OHIO) after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and is a struggling team winning

15* graded play on Boston College as they take on Clemson in ACC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that BC will lose this game by four or fewer points and has a great shot at wining the game. Here again, I like the use of a combination wager comprised of an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Clemson is coming off several solid games, but are just  5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games since 1992;  2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 49-10 ATS MARK FOR 77% WINNERS SINCE 2008. Play against any team in a conference matchup (CLEMSON) that is a struggling rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 3 to 3.5 YPR. This is strength against strength and I strongly believe that BC will get the job done very well on the ground. After their recent games, I am concerned that Clemson may show up a bit flat and think the game is won before it even starts. Take Boston College.

15* graded play on Virginia as they take on Duke in a very important ACC showdown for both teams.  The simulator shows a high probability that UVA will earn the win here. Given this favorable projection, I like making this a combination wager ONLY if you can get at least +145 on the money line. I believe you may be able to get this and perhaps a touch higher as some books move the line to +3 1/2. So, this combination wager would consist of an 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 63-23 ATS for 73.3% winners since 2008. It is 12-2 ATS this season. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (VIRGINIA) off 1 or more consecutive 'unders' and is a solid offensive team scoring 31 or more points/game. Simply, UVA has been able to run the ball very well over the past three weeks and have been very stingy allowing rushing yards. Duke has not been able to stop the run allowing 200+ rushing yards in their last four weeks. UVA will control the LOS and will have fantastic pass opportunities in man coverage on play action. Take Virginia. 

15* graded play on the Temple Owls as they take on the Houston Cougars in American Conference action set to start at 9:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Temple will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 20-6 mark for 77% winners since 2008 and has made 21 units/unit wagered. It has averaged a +135 DOG play. Play against a home teams in conference tilts using the money line (HOUSTON) turnover prone team with 2.5+ TO/game committed and is now facing an opportunistic team with 2.5+ TO/game forced. This next system is truly a great one posting a 210-22 losing mark for just 49% winners, BUT has made a whopping 97 units/unit wagered averaging a +152 DOG play since 2003.  Play on a  road team using the money line (TEMPLE) in a game between two teams with 8 or more defensive starters returning. So, given the favorable projections calling for the upset, I like making this a 21* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Speaking of defense, Temple is play some of th ebest in the Conference and is a large reason they are 4-1 on the season. Through five games, Temple's opponents have been in the red zone 12 times, scoring just six times and giving the Owls (50 percent), the top red zone defense in the nation. Temple's offense is 19 of 23 (82.6 percent) in the opponent's red zone. The Owls have scored 13 touchdowns and six field goals. Last season, Temple allowed 102 points in the fourth quarter. Through five games this season, the Owls have allowed just three points in the fourth quarter. Houston has doubt now with who is leading the offense after sophomore QB John O'Korn, who  led all true freshmen nationally last season with 28 touchdowns and was second in the conference behind only Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater, was benched in favor Greg Ward. Further, Houston lost their defensive leader to season-ending injury last week and Temple loves to work the middle of the field and they do it quite well. Take Temple.

15* graded play on Oregon State as they take on Utah in PAC-12 Conference action set to start at 10:00 PM ET.  This is an important swing game as both teams look to get one game closer to bowl eligibility. The winner likely makes the postseason while the loser faces an uphill battle based on the remaining schedules. OSU’s Sean Mannion continues his march toward the conference passing record, while Utah’s QB status is ongoing with Travis Wilson and Kendal Thompson essentially competing for playing time. The simulator shows a high probability that OSU will win this game. Should the line get to 3 1/2, which I would not rule out given the public wagering flows, then I would suggest making this a combination wager using a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-7 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2003. Play against road favorites (UTAH) that are an excellent offensive team scoring >=34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing between 21 to 28 PPG and after a win by 6 or less points. 50% of the plays made based on this system have covered the spread by 7+ points. The system has gone 7-1 ATS over the past three seasons for 88% ATS winners. Oregon State is coming off of a 'rested' week and are in a favorable historical situation. HC Riley is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) after a bye week as the coach of Oregon State. What I mean by 'rested' is that they last played October 4 at Colorado and won 36-31 and covered as 4 point favorites. They have had extra rest. Many are going to coin this a BYE week but they have not had 13 days of rest between games. Utah has had the same extra rest, but that has not been a favorable situation for them. The reason is that in most of these games, Utah has been favored against a notably weaker opponent and the line gets far too inflated due to public sentiment. Last Mannion torched the Utes for 443 passing yards and five touchdowns in their 51-48 OT win. Certainly, Mannion figures to be under more pressure this time against the Utes, who lead the FBS with 28 sacks despite having played a game or two fewer than most schools. Utah is giving up an average of 21.4 points to rank third in the conference, more than a touchdown lower than last year's mark. However, the OSU offensive line is quite good and they take two TE they are excellent pass blockers that can double team DE and seal off the perimeter too for spread formation running plays. The Utes did exceptionally well against UCLA, but OSU is a vastly different style of football team on both sides of the ball that will make it far more difficult for the Utes in this matchup. Take Oregon State.

25* graded play on USC as they take to the road to play Arizona in a major PAC-12 showdown set to start at 10:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that USC will win this game by 7 or more points. Arizona is off to an impressive 5-0 start, but their good fortune is going to run out tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 67-29 ATS mark for 70% winners over the past 10 seasons.  Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (USC) that are average rushing team gaining between 3.5 to 4.3 YPR and is now facing a team with an average rushing D allowing between 3.5 to 4.3 YPR. 42% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. SIM projects that the Trojan offense will be in full gear gaining 450 to 500 total yards. In past games, Arizona is an imperfect 0-4 over the past three seasons and just 4-22 ATS since 1992 when the have allowed 450 to 500 offensive yards. Further, Arizona is just 3-13 ATS over the past three seasons and 20-84 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. Arizona is off one of the biggest wins in school history, but are vulnerable to showing up flat in this matchup. HC Rodriguz is just  2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992. Trojan HC Sarkisian is a solid money making 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game in all games he has coached since 1992. Take the Trojans.

15* graded play on Florida as they host LSU in SEC action set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game by three or more points. In past seasons, this matchup has nearly always had national championship implications, but in this year's SCE, these two teams are average competitors. Still, the winner of this game will have just one loss and could work their way into the SEC Championship picture. Obvioulsy, I strongly believe that Florida, play at home in the Swamp, will be the winner and maintain their hopes. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-7 mark for 81% winners using the Money Line and has made 22 units/unit wagered since 2008. Play on a home team using the money line (FLORIDA) after a win by 6 or less points and is now facing an opponent after a loss by 17 or more points. LSU was hammered by Auburn 41-7 last week. That type of loss is going to be impossible for LSU to shake off. The LSU program is accustomed to inflicting scoreboard pain on their opponents and they have not been defeated this badly on the field of play in years. Moreover, they are just  1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half since 1992. This clearly reflects how difficult it is to recover from shocking losses. Take Florida. 

15* graded play on the Houston Cougars as they take on the Memphis Tigers in American Conference action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that that Houston will lose this game by 7 or fewer points. I like playing this as a combination wager comprised as a 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 55-19 mark for 74.3% ATS winners since 2003. Play on a road team (HOUSTON) after scoring and allowing 17 points or less points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. 50% of the games played based on this system covered the spread by 7+ points. In their last game, the Cougars had UCF on the ropes with a strong drive late in the 4th quarter, but a brilliant play causing a fumble preserved the UCF win. I believe this provides a confidence building experience for the team instead of a demoralizing one knowing they had a strong UCF team defeated. Moreover, UCF is vastly better opponent than Memphis and I fully expect Houston to add another win to their streak of 6 straight road conference covers. Take Houston

15* graded play on UCLA as they take on Oregon in PAC-12 action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game and take a major step forward to playing in the PAC-12 Championship game. Oregon suffered a humiliating defeat losing to a +24 point dog in Arizona. With last week's major upsets, Oregon hopes were resurrected. However, a second loss to UCLA will all, but end any conference title hopes and playing into the 4-team National Championship playoff. UCLA played late last week after all the upsets and lost to an inspired Utah team. They too, know another loss ends title hope. They are playing at home and I strongly believe they are the better team, especially on the defensive end. The Oregon defense has been torched this season both through the air and on the ground. I don't see how they will keep UCLA from scoring at least 28 points. The following game situations match the SIM projections for this game. UCLA is 5-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining between 300 and 350 net passing yards; 17-6 ATS the past three seasons when they have scored 28 or more points; 8-1 ATS over the past three seasons when they have gained 500 or more total offensive yards; 9-1 ATS the past three seasons when gaining more than 6.5 yards-per-play. Take UCLA. 

25* graded play on the Texas Long Horns as they take on Oklahoma in Big-12 Conference action set to start at Noon ET. It will be played on the tradition neutral field, the Cotton Bowl, in Dallas, TX.  The vision of a 50-50 crowd in Dallas and the bus ride through the Texas State Fair to get to the Cotton Bowl have helped make this one of the best rivalries. The simulator shows a high probability that Texas will lose this game by fewer than 14 points. Oklahoma is off a very tough loss last week to TCU and now must rebound quickly to play in this historic rivalry game. Texas ranks 38th in my NCAA Football ranks with a 2-3 record, but have not played close to their potential. This is the perfect opportunity for them catch a wounded and down trodden Sooner team and make it a very heated battle for four quarters. Further, the public is all over the Sooners under the presumption that they will be one angry team after last week's loss and take it all out on the Long Horns. Problem is that the Sooners are wounded both mentally and physically. Texas has also been a victim of poor field position in nearly every game. 31% of their possessions have started inside their own 20-yard line and that ranks 119th in the nation. Their opponents have only had 24% of their possession start inside the 20 and thanks as 26th least in the nation. This is  factor of many situations, but they do tend to even out over the course of the season. For example, not all punts will due inside the 20, but Texas has gone through this with several unlucky bounces pinning them in. Based on the matchups, I fully expect them to enjoy far more favorable start field position in this game. HC Charlie Strong is a perfect  9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' in all games he has coached since 1992; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team that wins > 75% of their games in all games he has coached since 1992. Sooners are coming off hard fought games against WVU and TCU in the past two weeks. The secondary was gutted for more than 300 + passing yards in both games. I highly expect the Texas offense to go no-huddle early in this game in a solid effort to wear down an already fatigued defensive unit. Last, Texas may be 20-3 on the season, but have played far more difficult opponents as a body, then the Sooners. This too should be a dividend for the Long Horns in the Cotton Bowl Saturday. Take Texas.

15* graded play on UNLV as they take on Fresno State in Mountain West Conference action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that UNLV will lose this game by fewer than 10 points. FSU sits atop the MW West Division with a 2-0 record, while UNLV has gone winless at 0-2 and is in the basement of the same Division. However, this is a game that I strongly believe UNLV will matchup well against and be able to compete fiercely for the full game. Putting a 2* extra play using the money line is an excellent wager. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-37 ATS for 66% winners since 1992. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UNLV) that are off 2 or more consecutive 'unders' and with a poor first half defense allowing 16 or more points per game. UNLV QB Blake Decker will be playing tonight and is now listed as 'probable' in the NCAA injury report. With him under center, I have no doubt the Rebels will score at least 28 points and the SIM confirms this expectation. In past games over the last three season, UNLV is a solid 8-2 ATS for 80% winners. Further, the Rebels are a stout 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. Take UNLV. 

5* graded parlay on New Mexico and the 'over' in Mountain West showdown between New Mexico State and San Diego State set to start at 9:30 PM ET.  I also like making 10* plays each on NMST and the 'OVER' as a replacement for the parlay. I fully expect NMST to win this game and are currently installed as 4 point home dogs. This opens up another wagering consideration to p;lay NMST and the 'over' each for an 8* play and then add a 5* play using NMST on the Money Line and the 'over' as a parlay. The same system outlined in the UNLV play support the play on NMST in this matchup too. Remember, that systems, trends, and game situations serve only to reinforce the graded play from the SIM. In this case it is simply coincidence that the same system applies to both of these graded SIM plays. 

10* graded play on the BYU Cougars as they take to the road to play UCF set to start at 7:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that BYU will win this game. BYU lost Hill to leg fracture in their upset loss at Utah State last week. Christian Stewart was thrown suddenly into the mix and played well for his first-ever FBS play. he had several WR open on vertical routes and simply over threw them. There are numerous reasons for not connecting on those passes and nerves arguably the top one. I strongly believe that BYU will just plug and play with Stewart under center. He does not have as much of a duel threat as Hill brought to the game, but does have the skill set to successfully move the ball against the UCF defensive unit. BYU has been a very resilient team as evident by their 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) mark after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses in games played over the last three seasons. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-76 mark for 50% winners, BUT has made a whopping 75 units/unit wagered averaging a +200 DOG wager. Play on a road team using the money line (BYU) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season. Take BYU.

25* graded play on the Nebraska Cornhuskers as they take on the Michigan State Spartans in BIG Ten action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Nebraska will lose this game by fewer than 7 points and has a great shot a very impressive road victory moving their season record to a perfect 6-0. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-9 ATS mark for 78% winners since 2003. Play on road underdogs (NEBRASKA) outrushing their opponents by 1.75 or more yards/carry on the season and after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game. 59% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points and underscores my strong belief that MSU can win this game SU. Here is a second system playing against MSU and has gone 75-34 ATS for 69% winners since 2003. Play against home favorites (MICHIGAN ST) in a game involving two mistake-free teams averaging

15* graded play on Auburn as they host the LSU Tigers in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Auburn will win this game by 10 or more points.  The Auburn ground attack is going to dominate and wear down the LSU defense. The SIM projects that Auburn will gain at least 300 rushing yards. In past games, LSU is an imperfect 0-1 ATS this season and 0-9 ATS. Further, LSU is 0-1 ATS this season, 0-3 ATS the past three seasons, and just 11-52 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points; 1-2 ATS the past three seasons and 3-16 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 450 to 500 offensive yards. Auburn is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season, 13-0 ATS the past three seasons, and 24-5 ATS since 1992 when they have rushed for 300 or more yards; 2-1 ATS this season, 15-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 89-34 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points. Last but not least, Malzahn is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when facing an excellent offensive teams averaging >=6.25 yards/play as the coach of Auburn.  

15* graded play on Northern Illinois as they take on Kent State in MAC Conference action set to start at 5:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that NI will win this game by 27+ points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-10 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (N ILLINOIS) off a bye week. Of the total plays made, 56% of them covered the spread by 7+ points. The following game situations match the SIM projections for the composite stats for the game results. NI is a solid 2-0 ATS this season, 16-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 72-30 ATS since 1992 when they have scored 28 or more points; 2-0 ATS this season, 11-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 31-14 ATS since 1992 when they have gained more than 500 offensive yards. Kent State is just 0-2 ATS this season, 3-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 18-49 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points; 0-2 ATS this season, 0-4 ATS the past three seasons, and 4-13 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 250 to 300 rushing yards. Take Northern Illinois. 

15* graded play on West Virginia as they take on Kansas in BIG-12 conference action set to start at 4:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that WVU will win this game by 30+ points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-10 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (W VIRGINIA) off a bye week. The following game situations match the SIM projections for composite statistical results. Kansas is just 0-2 ATS this season, 3-12 ATS the past three seasons, and 31-102 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points; 0-1 ATS this season, 1-7 ATS the past three seasons, and 11-49 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 9.0 or more net passing yards per attempt; 0-1 ATS this season, 1-7 ATS the past three seasons, and 16-46 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 500+ offensive yards. I see very little chance, if any, that Kansas could contain West Virginia to less than 28 points and/or less than 500 offensive yards. Take the Mountaineers. 

15* graded play on TCU as they take on Oklahoma in Big-12 Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that TCU will lose this game by less than 4 points and has a great shot at winning the game SU and upsetting the fourth ranked Sooners. Given this favorable upset projection, I will be making this a combination wager comprised of a 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 87-44 ATS mark for 67% winners since 2003. Play on any team (TCU) with a great scoring defense allowing 14 or less points/game and after 3 straight wins by 21 or more points. Here is a money line system that has gone 56-63 for just 47% winners, BUT has made a whopping 59 units/unit wagered averaging a +220 DOG play since 1992. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (TCU) in a game involving two good rushing teams; both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG and after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Two very good defenses in this matchup with TCU ranking best in the nation in scoring defense. This will certainly be the most difficult test yet for TCU, but one I see ending very favorably for them. The speed and quickness, and discipline will be quite evident on the TCU defense. I also strongly believe that TCU will get QB pressure with just four pass rushers and this will allow the secondary to make plays and create turnovers. TCU is the play. 

15* graded play on Mississippi as they host Alabama in SEC action set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Mississippi will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great shot a big time win for the program. I like making this play a combination wager using an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-11 ATS mark for 76% winners since 1992.  Play on a home team (OLE MISS) after 2 straight wins by 17 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games. of the 46 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 27 of them or 59%, have covered the spread by 7 or more points. This certainly under scores the potential for the DOG to win the game. Further, this system has gone 9-1 ATS over the past three seasons. HC Freeze is Freeze is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in games played on turf as the coach of Mississippi. Special teams may be a big factor and give that edge to Mississippi. Neither team has strong reliable special teams, but 'Bama has been horrid for a long stretch of games. Take Mississippi. 

15* graded play on the Florida Gators as they take on the Tennessee Volunteers in SEC action set to start at Noon ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Florida will win this game. I like the idea of playing this DOG as a money line play only. If the line should inflate to +3, then a combination wager using an 11* play on the line and a 4* play using the money line would be very attractive. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 47-10 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2008. Play against any team (TENNESSEE) that is a poor rushing team gaining between 3 to 3.5 YPR and is now facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing between 3 to 3.5 YPR and in conference showdowns. 50% of the total plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points.  When fine tuning this system to be used on the money line and just to play against home teams, the results are an outstanding 22-4 for 85% winners averaging a +120 DOG play. Florida is coming off the BYE week while Tennessee is gone through two very tough games losing at Oklahoma and losing at Georgia 35-32 last week. Very difficult to continue putting extreme effort into three straight games against elite SEC competition. Take the Gators. 

15* graded play on Syracuse as they take on Louisville in CFB action set to start Friday, October 3, at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Syracuse will win the game. Given this favorable projection, i will be playing this as a combination wager comprised of a 18* play using the line and a 7* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-7 ATS mark for a remarkable 82% winners since 2003. Play against any team (LOUISVILLE) with an incredible defense allowing 4.2 or less yards/play and  after allowing 150 or less total yards in their previous game. 50% of the total plays made covered the spread by 7 or more points and further under scores my strong belief that Syracuse can win this game. Further, Louisville is just  2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after out gaining previous opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Orange are a solid money making 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better since 1992. Syracuse lost to Notre Dame 31-15 with the Irish finding away to overcome 5 turnovers. They did very well against the Syracuse secondary, especially in play action. However, Louisville is nowhere close to having a similar offensive scheme and will struggle in the passing game against Syracuse. The SIM projects that Syracuse will score between 22 and 28 points and in past games are just 1-5 ATS when scoring within this range over the past three seasons. Take Syracuse.

10* graded play on the SMU Mustangs as they take on the East Carolina Pirates in CFB action set to start at 12:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 40 points. There is absolutely no reason for ECU to have any reason to run the score up. SIM shows that ECU may not even exceed the 40 point total. There are strong reasons to believe that once ECU gets this to a three score game, they will play the second and third units for the duration. This serves two purposes to give the bench players some game time and valuable experience and also to keep the starters well rested and free from injury. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 35-12 ATS mark for 75% winners since 2003. Play on a road team (SMU) with a weak and struggling offense averaging 250 or less total yards/game and after gaining 275 or less total yards in two consecutive games. Take SMU. 

25* graded play on the Oregon Ducks as they take on the Arizona Wild Cats in PAC-12 CFB action set to start at 10:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Oregon will win this game by 24+ points. Oregon is a stout  17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Arizona HC Rodriguez is a near-imperfect 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992 and is an imperfect  0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=425 yards/game. Based on the SIM projections, Arizona must hold Oregon to less than 28 points to have a chance of just covering and I positively do not see that having even a remote chance of happening in this matchup. Arizona is just 3-13 ATS the past three seasons and 20-84 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 28 or more points. They are also just 1-6 ATS the past three seasons and 7-22 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 200 to 250 rushing yards in a game.  Oregon is 4-0 ATS the past three seasons and 33-7 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 200 to 250 rushing yards. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 45-9 ATS mark for 83% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) off a bye week. 57% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Here is a second system that has gone 30-4 ATS for 88% winners since 2003. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) with an elite offense averaging 6.4 or more yards/play and after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. 60% of the plays made based on this system covered the spread by 7 or more points. Take Oregon.

10* graded play on Syracuse as they host Notre Dame set to start at 8:00 PM ET at the Metlife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ. The simulator shows a high probability that Syracuse will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. I like making this a combination wager using an 8* play on the line and a 2* play using the money line. Syracuse is a solid  11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after out gaining opponents by 175 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. This is a game that the Irish could easily take for granted and have more focus on the huge showdown next week hosting Stanford. In fact, the look ahead factor includes Stanford, then UNC, and then at Florida State. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 25-13 record for 66% winners using the Money Line and has made 35 units/unit wagered since 1992. It has averaged an impressive 191 DOG play. Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (SYRACUSE) that has an excellent rushing defense allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards-per-carry and after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game. Further, this system has not had a losing record in any year over the past 20 seasons. Take Syracuse.

10* graded play on the Missouri as they take on South Carolina in SEC action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Missouri will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great shot at upsetting the 13th ranked Gamecocks. YOu may remember my 25* graded winner on the Indiana, who upended Missouri last week as 14 1/2 point dogs. That is the type of home loss that can refocus a team and have them fully prepared for a 'redemption' type of game. In hindsight, I also believe Missouri was looking ahead to this showdown and mistakenly presumed the Hoosier game was a win before it even started. I did look at the MASH unit now forming on the Tigers roster. McNulty is listed atop the depth chart at left guard after fifth-year senior Anthony Gatti tore his right ACL last weekend. Connor McGovern will move back to right guard after starting at the position in all 14 games last season. Taylor Chappell is expected to earn his first career start at right tackle in place of McGovern. Although, OL need playing experience and chemistry to perform well, this style of quick paced offense can offset the uncertainty along the OL. These players were all elite players in high school and can plug-and-play in these situations. The majority of Missouri pass plays involve very simple fundamental pass blocking and South Carolina does not present an intimidating defensive scheme that will cause this new modified OL unit any difficulty in pass protection. Recently, the Tigers have prepared for strong passing attacks and are riding a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when facing good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons. I also believe that there is a near zero chance that SC can contain Missouri to less than 28 points. In past games, Missouri is a solid 15-4 ATS over the past three seasons when scoring 28 points over the past three seasons. Take the Tigers.  

25* graded play on Florida State as they take on North Carolina State in ACC Conference action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that FSU will win this game by 21 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark for 82% winners since 2008.  Play against home underdogs (NC STATE) with a good offense averaging 400 or more total yards/game and after out gaining opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. This system has gone 19-3 ATS over the past three seasons for 86.4% winners. The Wolfpack (4-0) are looking for their best start since Philip Rivers was under center. They haven't been 5-0 since opening 9-0 in 2002 en route to finishing 11-3. N.C. State's 502.0 yards of offense per game top the conference, led by Jacoby Brissett's ACC-leading 166.7 passer rating. The Florida transfer has 10 TD passes with one interception and was 14 of 21 for 195 yards and three scores in last Saturday's 42-0 win over Presbyterian - the Wolfpack's first shutout since 2011. Brissett also found the end zone on one of his five carries. HOWEVER, all of these great stats were achieved against one of the weakest schedules in the conference. FSU's opponents have produced nearly three times the strength to that which NC State has faced. Making matters worse is last week's opponent was a 'scrimmage' against Presbyterian. Having yo now step up to face an undefeated reigning National Champion is a nearly impossible task. Granted FSU did play the Citadel, but have faced a very good Oklahoma State and Clemson squad. By comparison, NC State has gone 4-0 against Georgia Southern, ODU, South Florida, Presbyterian. Simply, no program can ever simulate the speed of a top-ranked team like FSU and that will show on both sides of the ball. The following game situations match the SIM projections. FSU is 7-0 ATS the past three seasons when they have allowed 3.0 to 3.5 rushing yards per carry; 13-3 ATS over the past three seasons when they have gained 500+ offensive yards; 15-4 ATS over the past three seasons when they have out gained their opponent by 200+ offensive yards. I believe we will see the complete and best version of the FSU team this afternoon. 

10* graded play on Indiana as they take on Maryland in Big Ten action set to start at 1:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Indiana will win this game by 6+ points. As mentioned Indiana was another 25* Titan that was a double digit dog that won outright. There will be absolutely no letdown following that huge win in Missouri last week with confidence so high right now. This is the conference opener for both teams and both are in the Big Ten East Division, which features no. 9 ranked Michigan State and No. 22 Ohio State. Indiana could very well be the dark horse in the East to make a run at MSU, who they play October 18 at home. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 28-7 ATS mark for 80% winners since 1992.  Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANA) off an upset win as an underdog against an opponent off a road win. 67% of these plays covered the spread by 7+ points. Further, Head Coach Edsall is a horrid 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of Maryland. For those, who like making money line plays this system will support your play. It has produced a 28-5 mark for 85% winners since 2003. Play on a home team using the money line (INDIANA) after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games and is now facing an opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. Take Indiana. 

25* graded play on New Mexico as they take on Fresno State in CFB action set to start at 8:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that New Mexico will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and has a great opportunity at winning this game SU. Given this favorable projection consider making this a combination wager consisting of a 20* play with the points and a 5* play using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-7 ATS mark for 81.1% winners since 2008. This system is 20-3 ATS over the past three seasons and 57% of the plays made have covered the spread by 7+ points. Play against any team (FRESNO ST) that is a struggling team being outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game and after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. Fine tuning this to include playing against road teams has produced a 16-1 ATS mark for 94% winners over the past three seasons. New Mexico head coach Davie is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992. New Mexico runs the ball and then they run it more ranking third in the nation at 350 yards-per-game. The Lobos run the pistol and the option offensive scheme that is going to present some massive challenges for a Fresno State defensive unit that has been ripped apart in each game this season. Last year FSU was a 34 1/2 point favorite and defeated New Mexico 69-28 in what was a humiliating loss. Fans at that game made it a point to humiliate the entire New Mexico team as they walked together to the visitor's locker room outside of the stadium complex.  So, there is a 'pride' factor involved in this game and it is home coming too where 22K fans are expected to be in attendance. Gone from the Fresno State roster are quarterback Derek Carr and wide receiver Davante Adams, the two players who did the most damage in last year’s rout. The 2014 Bulldogs have gotten extremely inconsistent play at quarterback from junior Brian Burrell and Duke transfer Brandon Connette amd I strongly believe they will struggle against the Lobos defensive scheme tonight. Take New Mexico.

Briefly, I have changed the balancing of the gradings in order to maximize profits over the entire season. With that said, the 10* plays are now 15* plays and 25* plays remain the same. The key to my 21 years of success has been to be highly disciplined wagering the same amount per * unit play on every graded play.  15* graded play on the Miami Hurricanes as they take on the Nebraska Cornhuskers in CFB action set to start at  The simulator shows a high probability that Miami will lose this game by fewer than 8 points and has a great opportunity earn an excellent and very meaningful road win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-38 mark for 53% winners using the Money Line, BUT has made a whopping 50 units/unit wagered averaging a +205 DOG play.  Play on underdogs of +155 to +300 using the money line (MIAMI) with a good rushing defense allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. Here is a second system that has gone 31-18 for 69% winners and has made 38 units/unit wagered averaging a huge +177 DOG play since 2008.  Play on a road team using the money line (MIAMI)  and has been a turnover prone team (2.5+ TO/game) and now facing a mistake-free team (

15* graded play on the Indiana Hoosiers as they take on the Missouri Tigers in CFB action set to start at 4:00 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that Indiana will lose this game by fewer than 10 points and has a shot at earning a big time upset win. Given this favorable projection, I will encourage you to play this as a combination wager consisting of a 11* play using the line and a 4* play using the money line. I see this as a possible letdown situation for the Tigers. History shows that HC Pinkel is just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games as the coach of the Tigers. Key factor is that Hoosiers returns 8 starters including the QB on offense. Further, they return, 9 on defense. Overall , this type of experience and chemistry,especially along the OL, is a major advantage for any DOG looking to earn the upset win. Adding to this advantage is the fact that Missouri returns just 4 starters each on offense and defense. Take Indiana.

15* graded play on the SMU Mustangs as they take on the Texas A&M Aggies in CFB action set to start at 3:30 PM ET.  The simulator shows a high probability that SMU will lose this game by fewer than 34 points. This is simply too many points and my complete body of research shows to be more of a 24 points type game. Note that A&M is  0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games after gaining 450 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games since 1992. In this matchup, that they undoubtedly believe is won before it is even played, their is a high likelihood that focus will not be at it's best. SMU is on a nice perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. SMU has played far tougher opponents at Baylor and North Texas, then the resume that A&M played that only includes South Carolina (a JRS Upset Titan alert winner) as a viable opponent. The other two were Rice and Lamar. So, I do believe that SMU can compete well and keep this game to a 3 TD margin. Take the points.