TCU vs Kansas

4% best bet on TCU minus the points

Noon EDT kickoff

Despite the line movement there is still quite a bit of value left to bet TCU minus the points. Kansas has attracted tons of public money given their Cinderella start and College Game Day is making their first appearance to Lawrence, Kansas. The sharps are betting TCU.

Teams involved in a matchup of teams with win percentages of 80% and higher and facing an opponent that has covered the spread by a total of 49 or more points over their last five games have gone 46-23-3 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2015. 

Oklahoma vs Kansas State 

5% 10-Unit best Bet on the Kansas State plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the moneyline. There will be at least three more College Football releases for the Saturday card, so be sure to check back early Saturday morning by 7 AM EST for those additional best bets. 

A little history and background. Sooner head coach Brent Venables was a walk-on linebacker for Kansas State in the early 1990s and carved out a role with the Wildcats, then began his coaching career there before joining Bob Stoops' Oklahoma staff after the 1998 season. Venables has coached against his alma mater multiple times, but Saturday's game will be his first against Kansas State as head coach. 

Wildcats quarterback Adrian Martinez also has had strong success against the Sooners. Martinez was Nebraska's quarterback last season in a 23-16 loss at Oklahoma, throwing for 289 yards and a touchdown with one interception and ran for 34 yards and another score. Oklahoma snapped a two-game losing streak against Kansas State with a 37-31 win in last year's tilt between these teams in Manhattan. Four of the last five games between these teams have been decided by seven points or fewer.

K-State is 28-13 ATS coming off a game in which they scored 14 or fewer points. Sooners are 7-19 ATS in home games allowing 14 or fewer points in back-to-back games. 

From the predictive model, we are looking for K-State to rush the ball for at least 150 yards and score 27 or more points. When they have done so in past games, they have gone on to a 19-1 SU record and 15-4-1 ATS record good for 79% winning bets. 

Florida vs Tennessee 3:30 PM EST

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Florida plus the points and sprinkle the moneyline

My research simply states that this is just too many points in this rivalry dominated by Florida. Vols head coach Heupel is 3-13 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards-per-playing his previous game. 

From the predictive model, we are looking for Florida to rush the ball for at least 150 yards and score 31 or more points. When they have done so in past games, they have gone on to a 76-1 SU record and 59-15-1 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the past 15 seasons and 22-0 SU and 15-6-1 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Houston vs Texas Tech 

4% best bet 8-Units on Texas Tech minus the points 

We had UTSA, who led for the majority of the game last week against Houston and only overtime saved Houston from an upset loss in week 1. Now, they step up in competition on the road against a solid Big-12 foe in Texas Tech. Ranked teams off an ATS loss and installed as a dog of 4 or more points in a game with a total of 60 or more points (expected shootout) are just 5-23 SU and 8-17-2 ATS for 35% and if on the road are an imperfect 0-12 SU and 2-9-1 ATS for 18% over the last 10 seasons.  

North Carolina vs Georgia State 

4% best bet on UNC minus the points 

UNC head coach Brown is 8-0 ATS after playing a non-conference game, 13-3-1 ATS in road games after playing two non-conference games, and 38-20-2 ATS following a game in which his defense forced no more than one turnover for his coaching career. 

From the predictive model, UNC is 36-5 SU and 31-10 ATS for 76% winning bets when gaining at least 200 rushing yards and scoring at least 28 points.  

Clemson vs Georgia Tech 

4% best bet on Georgia Tech plus the points 

There has been an overwhelming amount of public betting going in favor of Clemson and forcing the line to move 5-points higher to +24 then where it opened at 19 points. 78% of the tickets bet are on the Tigers and this is the ‘red flag’ area that is one tool of mine that supports GT in this matchup tonight. 

Heisman Trophy winner and former FSU quarterback Chris Weinke is the GT quarterbacks coach, and he has worked with current QB Jeff Sims extensively during the offseason and preseason training camps. The GT offense will be going up against one of the best defensive lines in College Football, but Sims has the mobility to allude the pass rush and extend plays. He has a great arm that needed experience when to not throw into tight spots and I do look forward to him taking a big step forward this season. He is a dual threat QB that will minimize the Tigers defensive front four attack knowing that containment is preferred as opposed to getting sacks.  

Clemson is 0-8 ATS when the total has been between 49.5 and 56 points in games played over the last three seasons.  

Florida State vs LSU 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Florida State Seminoles plus the points and a little extra sprinkle on the money line. 

FSU is 59-34 ATS following a game in which they outgained them by at least 250 yards.  

From the predictive models we are expecting FSU to score at least 27 points and gain 375 or more total yards. In past games spanning the last 5 season, FSU is 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures. LSU is as a favorite and allowing 375 or more total yards and allowing at least 27 points is just 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS for 25% winning bets  

Betting on underdogs of +150 to +300 on the moneyline in the first two weeks of the season and was a struggling passing team completing 58% or fewer of their pass attempts in the previous season and has eight or more returning starters including their quarterback has earned a highly profitable 30-24 record averaging a +210 moneyline bet good for a 111% ROI over the last 10 seasons. 

Kent State vs Washington 10:30 EDT 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on Kent State plus the points 

Betting against favorites that have a new head coach in game one of the regular season that are coming off a season winning four or fewer games and facing a foe that won at least 4 games in their previous season has earned a 26-16 ATS record good for 62% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.  

Washington is 3-11 ATS in games played on turf.  

Betting on road dogs in the first four games of the season, was a bowl team from the previous season and lost their season finale and the bowl games and starting a new quarterback and has five or fewer returning starters on offense has produced an exceptional 37-13-2 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the last 30 seasons and is 8-4 ATS for 67% over the last five seasons.  

UTSA vs Houston 5:30 EDT 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on UTSA plus the points and a sprinkle on the moneyline.  

Betting on road underdogs that have nine returning offensive players including their quarterback from the previous season and with the game occurring within the first four games on their schedule has produced an exceptional 65-85 losing record BUT has averaged a +260 wager on the moneyline making $7,700 per $100 bet overt the past 10 season of action.  

Betting on road underdogs that were struggling passing teams completing 58% or fewer of their attempts in the previous seasons and has nine or more starters returning on offense has produced a 22-20 record for 53% winners averaging a whopping +320 underdog bet on the moneyline.  

The betting community is betting Houston with irrational exuberance with 77% of the bets made on Houston and 80% of the money on Houston. This is a red flag to bet Houston and is a contrarian indicator that supports our bet on UTSA.  

Penn State vs Purdue  

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points. 

Penn State's defense lost its top two tacklers from last season but will rely on returning linebacker Curtis Jacobs to help generate pressure against O'Connell and the Purdue offense. With a freshman right guard on the Purdue O-Line, you will see the Lions defense look to bring pressure from that side when Purdue is on their left side hashmark on the field. 

The Lions and Boilermakers are meeting for the first time since 2019 and the third time since 2013. This marks the seventh straight season in which the Lions has started conference play on the road. The Nittany Lions have dominated the Boilermakers in the schools' abridged history, going 15-3-1, including winning the past eight. The Lions are 12-6 ATS for 67% winning bets and 6-2 ATS for 75% over the last eight meetings. 

From my predictive models the lions are expected to score at least 27 points and gain over 100 rushing yards. In past games spanning the last 15 seasons in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have produced a 59-24 ATS record good for 71% winning bets. When priced as an away favorite, an even better 17-4 ATS for 81% and covering the spread by an average of 15 points.  

Ball State vs Tennessee 

4% 8-Unit Best Bet on the Tennessee Volunteers laying the 35+ points 

I must admit, I cannot remember the last time, my predictive models targeted a massive favorite of more than 28+ points, but rest assured the reasons we are on Tennessee could match the volume of the great novel the Count of Monte Crisco. The Vols lost starting receivers Velus Jones Jr. and JaVonta Payton but return leading pass catcher Cedric Tillman (64 catches, 1,081 yards, 12 TDs) to an offense that ranked second in scoring in the Southeastern Conference to Alabama with an average of 39.3 points per game. Plus, they have recently added former five-star wide receiver recruit in former USC Trojan Bru McCoy. The NCAA cleared him for immediate eligibility just last week and he adds superior depth to what is expected to be an extremely strong offense in Knoxville this season. 

From the predictive models, the Vols are expected to score at least 40 points and are 99-3 SU and 86-15-1 ATS for 85% winning bets since 1989 when they have scored 40+ points. They are 34-0 SU and 25-9 ATS for 74% winning bets in home games priced as a 24.5 or more-point favorite and scoring 40+ points wince 1989 and are 9-0 SU and 7-2 SATS for 78% winners since 2014 season. 

The College Football Championship 2021 
8 PM EST, January 10, 2022 

5% Best Bet on Georgia minus the points over Alabama 
3% Best Bet OVER the total 
1% Bet OVER Georgia Sacks of the Alabama quarterback 
0.5% Georgia –10.5 and OVER 50.5 points +725 at BetMGM 

The Georgia defense ranks among the all-time best units in over two decades. Yes, they allowed 41 points in the SEC Championship loss to Alabama, but they still managed to post a 26.9 yards per point allowed ratio for the season. Only seven teams in the past 20 seasons have ever finished a season at 25 or higher and prior to the Tide loss sat at 32 yards per point. By comparison, there were three other teams at 20 or higher and they were Clemson (20.6), Texas A&M (20.5), and Penn State (20.5). The difference between Georgia’s 26.7 YPPT ratio and the next three-best teams is monumental and cannot be underestimated.  

What is underestimated is the fact that Georgia, despite their plodding, sometimes boring, offensive schemes evolved into one of the most efficient units in the nation. They rank 5th in the nation of 130 teams with a 11.4 yards per point offensive ratio. The differential between Georgia’s offensive and defensive yards per point ratio is the widest by any team since at least 1980 and one of the dominant reasons I see Georgia winning this game and potentially by double digits. 

Bet OVER Georgia SACKS of the Alabama quarterback 

Here is a great betting system sporting a 48-21-2 ATS record for 70% winning bets over the last five seasons, 27-10-3 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past three seasons and is 11-2 ATS for 85% winning bets over the past season. Bet on any team from Week 8 on out including bowl games and the CFP that is averaging 200 to 249.9 rushing yards per game, allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in their previous game, and facing an opponent that averages 150 to 200 rushing yards per game on the season.  

OVER is well supporting by the fact that Alabama is 11-1 OVER following a game in which they allowed three or fewer points spanning the last three seasons and 9-1 OVER following a game in which they allowed nine or fewer points.  

From my predictive models Georgia is 8-4 ATS this season, 15-8 ATS the past three seasons and 137-63 ATS since 2000 when they scored 28 or more points. The OVER is 114-50 since 2000 in games that Georgia scored 28 or more points. Alabama is 1-3 ATS this season, 1-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 12-27 ATS the past 20 seasons when they have allowed 9 or more yards per pass attempt and the OVER in these games has gone 4-0 this season and 7-0 the past three seasons.  

LSU vs Kansas State 
4% (4-UNIT) best bet on Kansas State minus the points 

I do not see how in the world the Tigers will be able to be competitive after all of the players that have entered the transfer portal.  

The Tigers (6-6) have an interim head coach, offensive line coach Brad Davis, and they're still not sure who will play quarterback against the Wildcats (7-5) in the final bowl game of this season. After Tuesday, only the CFP National Championship Game remains. Starting quarterback Max Johnson has transferred to Texas A&M, and LSU has yet to reveal the NCAA's ruling on the team's appeal for freshman Garrett Nussmeier to not lose his redshirt season if he plays in the bowl game. LSU also will be without two of its top defensive players, who opted out to focus on the NFL draft in linebacker Damone Clark and defensive lineman Neil Farrell Jr. 

From my predictive models that account for all the missing players on the LSU roster, there is a high probability that K-State will score at least 28 points in this game. In past games in which K-State scored at least 28 points they are 5-1 ATS this season, 15-3 ATS the past three seasons, and 142-60 ATS over the past 25 seasons.  

Baylor vs Mississippi 
8:45 EST, January 1 

4% best bet on Mississippi  
4% Best Bet UNDER  
After leading the Rebels to a 10-2 record following a season-ending 31-21 Egg Bowl win over Mississippi State, Corral and the No. 8 Rebels will face No. 7 Baylor in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's night. One of only four FBS quarterbacks with 20 passing touchdowns and at least 10 rushing scores (he has 11 on the season), the Ventura, California, native finished seventh in Heisman Trophy voting.  

Betting the UNDER in a game with both teams playing well and having won four of more of their last five games and taking on a foe that has won at least 8 of their last 10 games and a total ranging from 52 to 60 points has earned a solid 124-88 record for 59% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and 32-18 UNDER for 64% winners over the last three seasons. If the game is a Bowl Game or CFP, the UNDER has earned a 47-22 UNDER record good for 68% winners since 2006 and 12-5 UNDER for 71% winning bets over the last three seasons.  

Lane Kiffin is a perfect 7-0 UNDER following five consecutive games in which his team did not commit more than one turnover. He is also Kiffin is 17-6 ATS off a road win against a conference rival in all games he has coached.  

Utah vs Ohio State 

4% (4-UNIT Best bet) on Ohio State minus the points 

So, four important players are OUT for OSU with WR Garrett Wilson, WR Chris Olave, DT Haskell Garrett, and T Nicholas Petit-Frer being the names. Now, on most any other team not named Alabama; this would be a major loss of talent few teams could overcome. Well, Ohio State’s second unit of players would be a ranked team in my opinion, and you will see these replacements for this foursome of NFL-bound starters showcase their skills on a national stage. This game has also a showcase from head coach Brian Day’s offseason recruiting efforts too, so do not think for a second that they will just go through the motions.  

Starting at WR will be freshman Marvin Harrison, Jr. Harrison hails from Philadelphia and played for St. Joseph's Prep and who was the No. 1 ranked WR prospect out of Pennsylvania and graded as a 4-star prospect and ranked 91st in the nation. His father, Marvin Harrison Sr. was an eight-time NFL All-Pro selection who spent his entire 13-year career with the Indianapolis Colts.  

TreVeyon Henderson hails from Hopewell, Virginia and played for the Hopewell High School. Set Ohio State’s freshman rushing record with a 270-yard performance versus Tulsa, breaking a 49-year record held by Archie Griffin, is just the fourth true freshman RB in school history to surpass 1,000 rushing yards, was a Semifinalist for Walter Camp Player of the Year, scored 17 total touchdowns through 10 games to rank tied for fourth nationally, was one of 10 semifinalists (and the only freshman) for the Doak Walker Award, which is presented annually to college football’s best running back. Need more convincing about the OSU depth at the skill positions? I didn’t think so.  

Henderson’s backup is a tremendous running back in his own right. Miyan Williams is 5-8 and 225 pounds of steel-like muscle and is extraordinarily quick and elusive and extremely hard to bring down. I expect him to see a lot more action in this game and he and the OSU offensive line will pound the Utah defense into submission by the second half.  

From my predictive models, OSU is expected to score 27 or more points and force Utah into two or more turnovers. In past games in which OSU met or exceeded these performance measures, OSU has earned an outstanding 99-1 SU record and went 75-24-1 ATS for 76% winning bets over the last 15 seasons; 19-0 SU, 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past three seasons.  

ASU vs Wisconsin 
5-UNIT Best Bet on ASU plus the points 

My predictive model shows a high probability that ASU will score at least 21 points in this game. Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS this season, 1-8 ATS the past three seasons, and 20-44 ATS over the last 15 seasons in games in which they allowed 21 or more points.  

Here is one of the best money line betting systems you will ever see and has earned a 22-12 record for 65% winners over the last 10 seasons. The magic is that the system has averaged a +150-underdog wager and subsequently making the Dime Bettor $41,000 in profits on just 34 bets for a monster 150% ROI. Bet on neutral field favorites using the money line in non-conference games that have won two of their last three games and with both teams from the Power-5 conferences.  

Purdue vs Tennessee 
One of the largest line moves I have seen for any Bowl Game. Purdue opened as a 3-point favorite and now Tennessee has rolled to be priced as a 7.5-point favorite and I do sincerely believe we are getting a gift opportunity to be Purdue and take the 7.5-points. This will be a pseudo home game for the Volunteers but not worth more than 10-points. 

Tennessee is 7-5 and scored 38 or more points in each of their seven wins, won three of their last four games with the only loss to then-No.1 Georgia and did score 45 or more points in their last six wins. However, Purdue has a defense that shut down some of the best offenses in the Big Ten and they were undoubtedly the giant slayer in Big Ten action. 

Purdue’s defense is led by linebacker Jeremy Banks, who takes great angles to tackle ball carriers and is just never out of position. He led Purdue by a huge margin recording 108 tackles including 4.5 sacks. Defensive back Alontae Taylor had been recovering from a significant foot injury and opted out for this bowl game considering the NFL draft. Even with the NFL draft, I highly doubt he would have been anywhere close to full strength for this game. 

The Boilermakers also have WR and first-team All-American David Bell, who caught 93 balls for 1,286 receiving yards, which was only 21 yards short of the program record held by John Standeford back in the 2002 season.  

My predictive models show that Purdue will score at least 27 points and have more than 150 passing yards than Tennessee will generate. In past games, in which Purdue met or exceeded these measures they have earned an outstanding 9-2 ATS for 82% winners over the last five seasons.  

Oregon vs Oklahoma 
Alamo Bowl 
9:15 EST, December 29, 2021 
4-UNIT Best Bet on the Sooners 
4-UNIT TOTAL OVER 

Betting the OVER in games with a total between 56.5 and 63 points from Week 8 on out to the end of the Bowl season and CFP games, in a matchup of teams that are both allowing 21 to 27.5 yards per game has earned a remarkable 29-8-2 OVER record for 78% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.  

My predictive models expect the Sooners to win this game by double-digits. They also project that the Sooners will score 31 or more points and gain at least 6.5 yards per play. In previous games in which the Sooners met or exceeded these performance measures they went on to earn a 79-31-1 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and 3-0 ATS in Bowl Games. 

UCF vs Florida 

4% (4-UNIT) Best Bet on Florida minus the points 

Let’s get right to it. Betting on any team, like Florida, that has been beaten by the spread by 49 or more points over their last five games and the game taking pace in December has earned a highly profitable 56-21-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and is 14-4 ATS and 78% winning bets over the last five seasons.  

My predictive models project that Florida will score at least 31 points and will gain an average of 6.5 or more yards per play. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures they have gone to earn a 20-3 SU record and 16-5-2 ATS for 76% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. 

Middle Tennessee State vs Toledo

Noon EST, December 16, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on Middle Tennessee State plus the points

MTST has had immense difficulty retaining quarterbacks this season losing two that left the team and another, whose season ended due to a leg injury. They had to turn to true-freshman Nicholas Vattiato, who is from Plantation, Florida. He is an excellent quarterback and making the most of his opportunity to step in and run the offense. Played in five games and had four starts

He Ended the regular season by completing 92 of 136 passes (67.6%) for 777 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 18 yards

He was in on 256 total snaps and graded out a winner three times and voted to the C-USA All-Freshman Team. Completed 20 of 24 passes for 147 yards and two touchdowns in win over FIU to earn the team’s offensive player of the game award. Set an MTST true freshman record in completions (34), attempts (49) and passing yards (304) against Old Dominion.

Toledo head coach Candle is just 3-12 ATS for 20% when coming off a home win over a conference rival. Toledo is 9-22 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins.  

Bet MTST plus the points and sprinkle a 0.5 unit on the money line as well.

Tulane vs Memphis

7:30 PM EST, November 27, 2021

5-UNIT Best Bet on Tulane plus the [points and sprinkle 0.75 UNITS on the money line

I will get right to it and start with this terrific money line betting angle that has systematically earned a 38-28 record for 58% winning bets and by averaging a whopping +200 underdog bet, the Dime Bettor has made a $47,000 profit over the last 25 seasons and earned $24,000 on a 32-35 losing record. This is the strength and value of identifying underdogs in college football that can win the game too.

From my predictive models I expect Tulane to gain a minimum of 5.0 YPPL and score 28 or more points. In past games in which they met or exceeded these measures they have gone on to a 46-15 SU record and a 50-10 ATS mark for 83.3% winners since 2013.

Bet Tulane as a 5% Best Bet

Penn State vs Michigan State

3:30 PM EST, November 26, 2021

4% Best bet on Penn State minus the points

When conference foes look to upset an alite power house program like Ohio State and fail miserably the hangover can be massive and in some games season-low performances have happened. Home dogs that played Ohio State in their previous game have gone 32-45-3 ATS for 42% wins. If our home dog lost to Ohio State in the previous game our home pup is a money-burning 12-45-3 ATS for 21% wins OR playing against these emotionally wounded home dogs have hit 79% winning bets since 1980. Over the last 10 season, these dogs are 2-14-1 ATS for just 12.5% wins and 0-11 ATS if also off an ATS double-digit loss.

UTSA vs North Texas

2:00 PM EST, November 27, 2021

4-Unit Best bet on North Texas

North Texas is 16-5 ATS off three straight wins against conference rivals. Both of these teams are running hot and it would be a shame to see UTSA’s perfect season go to the trash bin. I think they will get the win in possibly a last minute game winning score, but will not win the game by double digits.

Betting on teams that are on a three or more-game win streak and are facing a team that is on a five or more game win streak has earned a 140-116-10 ATS for 5% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. If our team is hosting the game, they improve to 58-39-3 for 60% winners. If our host is the dog they have earned a 25-16 record for 61% ATS winners and if our homer is a double-digit underdog they have gone 8-3 ATS for 73% winners.

Maryland vs Rutgers

Noon EST, November 27, 2021

4% Best Bet on Maryland

Maryland and Rutgers need a win to become bowl eligible. So, how do 5 win teams in the final game of the regular season perform ? Road teams sporting 5-6 records and coming off a loss are 39-21-4 ATS for 65% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. 5-6 record hosts that are coming off a loss are a money-burning 29-34-1 for 46% ATS last10 seasons. Both Rutgers and Maryland qualify as must-win to be bowl eligible teams.

Rutgers is 1-7 ATS for 12% wins when the current game is at home in games spanning the last 10 seasons; 3-15 ATS in home games after scoring 6 or fewer points in the previous game; 13-30 ATS in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games. Maryland is a money-making 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival.

Georgia vs Georgia Tech

Noon ET, November 27, 2021

4-Unit Best Bet on Georgia First half line minus the points

I do not remember the last time I wagered on a favorite of more than -31 points, but trust me it is rare and there are strong reasons I am betting on the Georgia Bulldogs. However, we are looking at the first half line here because of the risk that Georgia gets out to a huge lead and then looks to get their starters out of the game knowing the SEC Championship game is on deck.

Betting on the first half line with favorites of 17.5 or more points competing against a foe that scored fewer than 10 points has earned a sensational 35-11 ATS record using the first half line in games played over the last 10 seasons. With a current first half line of 20.5 points this is a great opportunity with a team that is historically one of the best over the last 2 decades at least.

Georgia’s defense has attained an incredible 31.4 defensive yards-per-point measure. That means that opponents have had to gain 31 yards to get a single point on the scoreboard. The second-best defensive unit in the nation is Penn State and they are light years behind Georgia sporting a 21.5 YPPT measure.

ILLINOIS (4 - 6) at IOWA (8 - 2)

Week 12 Saturday, 11/20/2021 2:00 PM EST

4-UNIT Best Bet on Illinois plus the points

9-1 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive UNDERS and 6-0 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive UNDERS over the last three seasons. Ferentz is 3-12 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Iowa. 

Double digit underdogs of 11.5 or more points in a game with a posted total of less than 40-points are 26-12-3 ATS for 68.4% winners. If the game occurs in the Power-5 Conferences, our pup is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS. 

Michigan State vs Ohio State

Noon ET, 11-20-2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Ohio State minus the points

Ohio State (9-1, 7-0 Big Ten) is coming off its most efficient offensive performance of the season and that is just not the news that the overachieving Spartans wanted to hear. OSU had scoring touchdowns on its first six possessions in a 59-31 win against Purdue last week. MSU does have the nation’s best runner of the football in Kenneth Walker, who has gained 1,473 rushing yards including 17 TDs, and their QB Payton Thorne, who is second in the conference to OSU’s sensational CJ Stroud with 21 touchdown passes. 

Stroud has had three games in which he threw for five touchdowns without throwing an interception. OSU leads the nation scoring an average of 46.3 PPG and the MSU defense has a nearly impossible task of containing this explosive offense. 

In Week 11 and on during the regular season, teams that are ranked higher in the AP poll and are favored by 14.5 or more points are 29-1 SU and 17-11-2 ATS for 61% winners and if the game is in Week 11 and beyond, they are 26-1 SU and 17-9-1 for 67% winners. 

From the predictive models I have developed over more than two decades there is a high probability that OSU will score at least 28 points and/or gain at least 7.5 yards per play and/or gain 500 or more total offensive yards. Over the past ten seasons, OSU is 62-1 SU and 44-17-1 ATS for 72% winners when scoring 28 or more and gaining 500 or more yards. 

Iowa State vs Oklahoma

Noon EST, November 20, 2021

4-UNIT best bet on Iowa State plus the points

Campbell is 12-2 ATS off a close loss of seven or fewer points to a conference rival as the coach of ISU. 

Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in Weeks 10 through end of the regular season that are off an upset road loss have earned a 86-44 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the last 25 seasons and 31-16-1 ATS over the last ten seasons. 

Rutgers vs Indiana

Noon EST, November 13, 2021

4% (4-UNIT)  Bet on Rutgers

Indiana is on a five-game losing streak and the magic of last season seems like it was decades ago. Coach Allen is a master motivator and one of the most respected teachers and mentors in the College ranks, but sometimes there is just too many mountains to climb over. In their last game, they were dominated on both sides of the ball in a 29-7 loss to Michigan. The loss also removed them from any chance of being bowl eligible making it even more difficult for ANY team to respond with a massive performance.

Rutgers (4-5, 1-5) is coming off a 52-3 home beat down to Wisconsin, BUT remain bowl eligible if they win two more games. During the Wisconsin loss, the team lost wide receiver and kick returner Aron Cruickshank to a season-ending injury. QB Noah Vedral, who sustained an undisclosed injury in the third quarter and did not return, will be starting in this game from all that I have read. Moreover, Vedral starting is not a condition for this play to be valid as Rutgers does possess many backups at the position that are more than ready to step and take advantage of the audition for next year. The players are Cole Snyder, Evan Simon or true freshman Gavin Wimsatt.

Betting on road teams after scoring 3 or fewer points in the first half last game and that are facing a host, who scored 9 or fewer points in their last game has produced a highly profitable 25-5-1 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons and is 13-3 ATS over the last three seasons.

Michigan vs Penn State

Noon EST, November 13, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on PSU plus the points.

Michigan is just 10-23 ATS in road games and coming off a cover by double digits. PDSU head coach Franklin is 14-3 ATS coming off a road conference win and 12-4 ATS coming off a win of 17 or more points and 15-3 ATS off a road win. PSU is also 16-4 ATS coming off a game in which they committed no turnovers.

This matchup is all about the vastly under rated PSU defense that ranks in the top-5 in many of the meaningful advanced analytics. They rank 3rd nationally with a defensive 20.8 yards per point allowed, for instance, and I believe Michigan’s offense is going to have a nightmare trying to move the chains in Happy Valley, which has the best home field advantage of 6-points.

From the predictive models, Michigan is 1-7 ATS the last three seasons when committing 2 or more turnovers and 9-25 ATS when allowing 250 or more passing yards. Dotson and QB Clifford are expected to connect on deep vertical routes where the Michigan defense is the most vulnerable.

Ohio U vs Eastern Michigan

8:00 PM EST, November 9, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on EMU

EMU is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) against teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game.

Ohio has not been a strong finishing team to the regular season and are just 10-22 ATS in road games in weeks 10 through 13. Ohio head coach Solich is 7-17 ATS in road games after being out gained by opponent by 125 or more total yards last game.

From the predictive models qwe learn that Ohio is a money-burning 25 ATS this season, 3-10 ATS the past three seasons, and 40-85 ATS the last 20 seasons when allowing 28 or more points in game. EWMU is 3-3 ATS this season, 13-5 ATS the past three seasons, and 54-24 ATS over the last 20 seasons when scoring 28 or more points. 

Indiana vs Michigan

7:30 PM EST, November 6, 2021

4- UNIT Best Bet on the Indiana Hoosiers plus the points.

Now, that you purchased this 3-pack, I like taken a flyer on these three dogs that I just like quite a bit and doing a 0.25 unit round robin parlay. As I have stated on so many CFB shows as a host or guest over the past several weeks there have been 17 underdogs of 17.5 or more points that have WON the game this season. There were seven such dogs in 2020 and much lower number because COVID-19 eliminated so many games.  In the 2018 season there were 24 of these dogs that won outright.

Top-20 ranked favorites of 17.5 or more points that is coming off a disheartening loss as a road favorite to a ranked opponent are 2-9 ATS in their next game since the 2012 season (5-1 ATS are these dogs if their current opponent lost in a matchup of Top-10 ranked teams).

Michigan is just 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. Master coaching motivator Allen is Allen is 10-2 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of IU.

Baylor vs TCU

3:30 PM EST, November 6, 2021

4-Unit best Bet on TCU plus the points and sprinkle the money line too.

Here is a terrific betting angle that is bet using the money line and has made the Dime Bettor a $36,000 profit averaging a +210 underdog bet over the last five seasons. Bet on home teams after losing to the spread by 28 or more points over their last three games, is a losing team not winning more than 40% of their games on the season and now facing a winning record team.

This angle is 3-3 this season and has made that dime bettor $2,750, 12-6 making the dime bettor $25,000 over the last three seasons.

Auburn vs Texas A&M

3:30 PM EST, November 6, 2021

4-Unit best Bet on Auburn plus the points and a little extra sprinkle on the money line.

Aggies are a money-burning 2-10 ATS off the BYE since joining the SEC is 2012.

Betting on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game forced, and with the dog coming off two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers has earned an outstanding 55-20 ATS record good for 73^ winning bets over the last ten seasons. This angle is a solid 8-3 ATS this season.

From my predictive models, Auburn is expected to score at least 28 points in this game and when they have scored 28 or more points in past games has earned a 4-1 ATS mark this season, 14-2 ATS 88% wins, and 125-48 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 25 seasons.

Wake Forest vs North Carolina

Noon, November 6, 2021

8-UNIT Best Bet on UNC plus the points

I will get to the point. UNC is 34-16 ATS for 68% winners coming off a game in which they gained 525 or more yards spanning the past three seasons. Brown is 11-3 OVER after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game as the coach of UNC. 

From the predictive models, UNC is expected to gain 500 or more yards. In past games in which they did game at least 525 total yards they went 12-6-1 over the last three seasons and 43-15 ATS over the last 15 seasons. They are 15-5 gaining 525 or more yards in home games and 4-1 ATS for 80% as a DOG. 

Ohio State vs Nebraska

Noon EST, November 6, 2021

8- UNIT Best Bet Nebraska plus the points

 NU committed four turnovers in their 28-23 home loss to Purdue. Note, that they are 25-12 for 68% winners coming off a game in which they committed four or more turnovers. Calls for NU head coach Scott Frost grew louder after the loss to Purdue as his conference record dropped to 15-26 and 6-15 in the West Division of the B10. However, 17 losses have been by one score during Frost’s 4 years at the helm and definitely do not think he has lost his team even just a little bit. 

The Buckeyes may lead the nation in scoring offense averaging 47.3 PPG, but they had seven false starts in their home win over Penn State. The Buckeyes were 1-for-6 in the red zone against the second-best defense in the nation based on my numbers. PSU QB Clifford shredded the Ohio State secondary – as I had predicted in my top-rated 5-UNIT best bet winner last week – for 361 passing yards. The OSU came to the aid of the sputtering offense with a huge game-changing 57 yard TD fumble return. Bottom line, PSU had the game plan to upset the Buckeyes and you can bet Frost and his staff have been studying that in great detail. 

Frost is 6-0 ATS after losing 5 or 6 of their last seven games. After throwing just three interceptions in the first eight games, NU QB Adrian Martinez, threw four interceptions in the loss to Purdue. Frost was a starting QB for Nebraska. He knows the ups and downs of being a QB at the highest level of NCAAF play and I am looking for Martinez to have a huge game. Remember, that OSU secondary has been attacked this season and Martinez and wideouts have the skillsets to exploit that secondary all game. 

Betting against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in a game with two solid scori ng defenses allowing between 16 and 21 points per game and with the favorite coming off back to back games scoring at least 20 points in each of the last two games in the first half has earned a 42-14 ATS record for 75% winning bets over the last 30 seasons, 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets over the last five seasons, and 17-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Liberty vs Ole Miss Rebels

Noon ET, November 6, 2021

8-UNIT Best Bet on Mississippi minus the points. 

This is the second time that Liberty will take on an SEC foe. The first one was a 59-0 loss to Auburn as a 28.5 point dog back in week 11 of the 2018 season. Liberty has without doubt become a much stronger football program since then, but they do not have the depth, especially on defense to contain the high-powered fast paced offensive style of play that Kiffin employs. Moreover, this marks the third game they have been ranked and favored by single digits to an unranked foe. They are 2-0 ATS in the previous two games. 

From my predictive models, there is a high probability that Mississippi will score at least 28 points. They are 5-1 ATS this season, 14-5 the past three seasons when scoring 28 or more points. They are 8-0 ATS in games outgaining their opponent by 200 or more yards and scoring 28 or more points. 

Penn State vs Ohio State

7:30 PM EST, October 30, 2021

5-UNIT Contrarian Game of the Month on the Penn State Nittany Lions

 The line for this huge showdown in the Big Ten opened with the Buckeyes installed as 16.5 point home favorites and has seen steady one-sided action on the Buckeyes propelling the line to 19.5 points. Penn State lost to Illinois last week in an FBS-record nine overtimes, 20-18. The Nittany Lions have now lost two in a row after winning their first five, though both losses were decided by three or fewer points. 78% of the tickets are on the PSU based on the 12 sportsbooks I track and that is just a sign of recency bias and irrational exuberance that lends itself to this contrarian bet. 

Here is a contrarian style betting system that has earned an incredible 29-6 ATS record over the last five seasons and is 15-2 ATS for 88% winning bets over the last three seasons. Bet on dogs between 10 and 21 points that have not covered the spread in two of their last three games and is facing an opponent that has covered 5 or 6 of their last seven games. 

If the hot running high powered favorite is coming off back-to-back wins of 35 or more points and now facing a team that has lost to the spread in 2 of their last three games, the record is a horrid 2-9 ATS. 

Betting on teams coming off a loss of six or fewer points and is now facing an opponent that is coming off three consecutive games in which 60 or more points were scored are a highly profitable 39-14-1 ATS for 74% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

There have been 17 underdogs of 17.5 or more points that have the game straight up this season. Just 7 such monster dog wins in 2020 due to COVID reducing the overall number of games played. 108 17.5 points that won outright since the start of the 2016 season. In Week 8 of this season Illinois was a 18 point dog to PSU, Rice was a 24 point dog to UAB and won 30-24, and New Mexico defeated Wyoming 14-3 as a 30-point road underdog. 

Here is a money betting system that underscores the contrarian nature of these types of games and why they often grade extremely strong by my predictive models. Bet on a game after game number 7 with an offensive team averaging 340 to 400 yards-per-game and is now facing an opponent coming off a game in which they gained over 475 total yards and is an excellent offensive team averaging more than 440 total yards per game. If you had bet on these situations over the last 10 seasons using the money the money line, you would have gone 29-31 for just 48% winners, but by averaging a whopping +285 underdog bet, you would have profited 50 units in winnings. 

Ohio State’s defense is vulnerable to the PSU offense exploiting their secondary. Dotson has not caught a TD pass in two games, but I would be shocked if he did not catch at least one in this game. Dotson and the Buckeyes Garrett Wilson are the only players in the Big Ten with at least 550 receiving yards (552) and six touchdown catches. 

Here’s the deal. I love Penn State’s defense and they do rank 3rd in the nation and tops in the Big Ten with a 22.0 yards per point ratio (YPPT). Georgia is having a historic season and rank best defense with an incredible 31.8 YPPT ratio. Clemson is second with a 23.2 YPPT ratio. I know OSU has three weapons in Wilson and Chris Olave and true freshman running back TreVeyon Henderson, who leads the country average g 8.8 yards-per-rush. 

The Buckeyes have not had a turnover in three consecutive games and somehow the Lions defense is going to force at least two of them based on my predictive models. Since 2016, the Buckeyes have played three straight games committing not one turnover but are 0-2 ATS the following game. The last time that happened for the Buckeyes, Penn State came to Columbus and won 27-26 in week 5 of the 2018 season.

Georgia vs Florida

TIIA Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

4-UNIT Best bet on Georgia minus the points

Stetson Bennett has been named the starter at QB for the bulldogs and former-starter JT McDaniels upgraded to available for this game in Jacksonville, FL. 

Betting on favorites of 10 to 21 points that are coming off a game in which 60 or more points were scored and after coming off back-to-back games in which seven or fewer points were allowed in the first half has earned a 76-37-1 SATS record for 68% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons. 

My research simply states that we may be watching one of the best CFB ever or at least the last 2 decades. Even though both teams were idle last week, Georgia and Florida enter their annual showdown heading in opposite directions. The Bulldogs have been dominant, outscoring their seven opponents -- including four who were ranked -- 269-46, culminating with their 30-13 win over then-No. 11 Kentucky on Oct. 16.

The play of Georgia's defense has emerged as one of the biggest storylines of the season nationally. The Bulldogs have given up a national-best 6.6 points per game, nearly eight points fewer than Michigan, which ranks second at 14.3 points per game. Georgia also ranks first nationally in total defense (208.3 ypg) and first downs allowed (84), in addition to ranking second in rushing defense (63.4 ypg) and passing defense (144.9 ypg).

Meantime, Florida is coming off a 49-42 loss against LSU on Oct. 16. The Tigers rushed for 321 yards on 45 attempts, an average of more than seven yards a carry. LSU amassed 454 yards of total offense against the Gators, who lost for the third time in their past five games since opening 2-0.

True freshman tight end Brock Bowers - who leads the Bulldogs in receptions (25), yards (416) and receiving touchdowns (6) -- and redshirt freshman receiver Ladd McConkey, who has 17 catches for 295 yards and two scores, have emerged as the team's top receivers.

The Gators' question at quarterback stems from their season-opening starter, junior Emory Jones, being inconsistent. Jones started in the 49-42 loss to LSU, but he was pulled in favor of freshman Anthony Richardson, who led the Gators into the end zone on four straight possessions in the second half. However, they both threw two interceptions.

Bennett has started the past three games and has played in the past six. He's completed 57-of-82 passing for 996 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. He's also had 19 carries for 148 yards on the ground. 

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma

3:30 PM EST,  Octobwer 30, 2021

4- UNIT Best Bet on Texas Tech plus the points

This is one oof those dogs I have referenced on many shows this CFB season. There have been 14 underdogs of 17.5 or more points that won the game SU. This monumental upset occurs every season averaging 14 times. This year I have my 5- UNIT SEC game of the Month on Texas A&M in their win over then-No. 1 Alabama. I nor anybody else on the planet knows when these major upsets will take place, but this one is certainly worth a sprinkle of no more than 1- UNIT using the money line. 

Texas Tech lost their head coach Matt Wells after a very horrid stretch in which Tech allowed 70 to the Longhorns and 52 to TCU at home two weeks ago. This past week Tech blew a 24-10 half time lead. Teams and their players have pride and motivation to respond to adversity – or they simply would not be playing football at the highest level. So, I think former OC Sonny Cumbie will get his team fully motivated to play their best and mpost physical game this season. Last, if you take away the 76-0 win against FCS Western Carolina, the Sooners’ average score in their seven FBS games this season has been by a margin of eight points and 37-29. 

From my predictive model, Tech is 12-6 ATS over the L3 seasons and 150-64 ATS L15 seasons in games scoring 28 or more points. Let’s see what happens here as the models are on Tech and yes they do know this is the first week having a new head coach. 

New Mexico vs Wyoming

3:30 October 23, 2021

4-UNIT BET on the New Mexico Lobos plus the points

Wyoming is just 4-17 ATS coming off a game in which 24 or fewer points were scored. Wyoming was blanked by Fresno State 17-0 last week. Wyoming 1-5 ATS off a game scoring three or fewer points. 

There may be as many as six different quarterbacks taking snaps in this game as both coaches attempt to get anemic offenses moving on the field. Low totals such as this one at 40.5/41 points makes it so much easier for a double digit underdog to cover the number. The market has this game as an implied 30-10 Wyoming win and I do not think Wyoming will get more than 27 in this matchup.

Betting on road dogs that have allowed 31 or more points in three straight games and are facing a foe that was defeated by 17 or more points in their last game has earned a highly profitable 60-24 ATS for 72% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.

California vs Colorado

3:30 PM EST, October 22, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on the California Golden Bears minus the points

Colorado is just 16-36 after two consecutive games rushing the ball for 125 or fewer yards and 19-42 ATS coming off a game in which they did not commit a turnover. Cal head coach Wilcox is 15-5-1 ATS off three consecutive conference games.

From my predictive models we learn that Cal is 5-1 ATS the past three seasons and 101-48-1 ATS for 70% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 28 or more points in a game. Cal is 5-1 ATS the last 3 seasons when gaining 400 or more total yards as well.

Mississippi vs Tennessee

7:30 PM EST, October 16, 2021

4% Best Bet on the Tennessee plus the points

I’ll get right under the hood of this money-making machine NCAAF Betting angle. Betting on any team in a game lined between 3.5 points on either side of pick, and is facing a decent team outscoring their opponents by an average of 7 or more PPG and are coming off a game in which they allowed 31 or more points in two consecutive games has earned a 44-14-2 ATS mark good for 76% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons.

Here is a second betting angle that has produced 80% winning bets on a 31-8 ATS record spanning the past 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on two consecutive wins of 10 or more points over conference foes and in a matchup of winning programs sporting win percentages between 60 and 85% for the season.

From my predictive models, Tennessee is expected to score 27 or more points and win the turnover battle. In past home games, Tennessee is 15-1 SU and 13-3 ATS when meeting or exceeding these projections.

Bet Tennessee as a 4-UNIT Best Bet

Iowa State vs Kansas State

7:30 PM EST, October 16, 2021

4% Best Bet on Kansas State plus the points

I will be sprinkling the money line on this bet. So, bet a 4% amount taking the points and then add no more than 0.75 amount using the money line.

From my predictive models, K-State is projected to contain ISU to fewer than 150 rushing yards and win the turnover battle. In past home games, K-State is 24-1 SU and 18-6-1 ATS when meeting or exceeding these projections. When installed as a home dog, K-State is 5-1 SU and ATS over the past five seasons meeting or exceeded this pair or performance measures.

ISU head coach Campbell is 0-7 ATS coming off three games gaining 450 or more-total yards in each one. K-State is 22-6-1 ATS after two consecutive games in which they failed to gain more than 125 rushing yards.

Bet K-State as a 4% Best bet and add no more than a 0.75 bet amount using the money line.

Rutgers vs Northwestern

Noon EST, October 16, 2021

4% Best Bet on Northwestern plus the points

Betting homme underdogs that are facing an opponent that has allowed 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in their last two games has earned an outstanding 50-24-3 ATS for 69% winning bets over the last ten seasons. Drilling down a bit further, we learn that when the matchup is between same conference foes, the record improves to 43-20 ATS for 68% winning bets over the last ten seasons.

Rutgers lost a tough-fought game 20-13 loss at Michigan on Sept. 25 but then followed that with horrid showings at home by dropping a 52-13 decision to Ohio State and a 31-13 setback to Michigan State. Rutgers is not playing well on both sides of the ball, and especially in the secondary where they allowed 588 total yards including TD catches of 63 and 65-yards and a 94-yard TD run to MSU.

Northwestern has played poorly as well, but have not made anywhere close to the number of mental mistakes that Rutgers has made. Bet Northwestern plus the points.

Clemson vs Syracuse

7:00 PM EST, October 15, 2021

4% Best Bet on Clemson minus the points

The current line of -13.5 and 44.5 total points implies the market stating the final score will by 29-16 Clemson win. My predictive models also expect Clemson to score at least 31 points. Clemson is 22-1 SU and 16-7 ATS when scoring 31 or more points in games played over the last three seasons and 12-3 ATS for 80% in road games and scoring 31 or more points spanning the past five seasons.

Betting on road favorites from 10 to 21.5 points that are facing a host coming off one or more ats wins has earned a 85-39-2 ATS record over the last five seasons for 70% winning bets.

Bet Clemson minus the points, currently -13.5 and good to bet up to an including – 15.5.

No. 1 Alabama vs Texas A&M
8:00 PM EST, October 9, 2021

10-UNIT Best Bet on Texas A&M plus the points. Plus, not more than 2-UNIT bet on the money line OR wait till in-game, and if Alabama scores first then get the 2-UNIT money line bet executed. I like the latter choice to wait in-game and see.

Prior to the start of the season, the WestGate had this game lined as A&M installed as a 7.5-point home dog. So, the recent performances of these two teams, especially Alabama, has caused the market to explode in favor of Alabama. The result, though, has been that akin to stock trading, Alabama is now in severely overbought territory, while A&M is a bit over sold. My predictive models are expecting more of a single-digit type of game, but not higher than 14 points.

Betting on any team that is coming off a loss of six or fewer points and is now facing a team that has played in three consecutive games in which 60 or more points were scored have earned a 38-13 ATS record good for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Plus, defending national champions that are 5-0 in the following season do get overpriced and a result are just 6-11 ATS when installed as a favorite and 2-7 ATS when installed as a a road favorite. A&M is also 23-9 ATS in home games after two consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover and Fisher is 9-1 ATS after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in the previous game.

Michigan vs Nebraska

7:30 PM EST, October 9, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Nebraska plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

I do believe there is major chance that Nebraska can get the win in this matchup. Betting on a home team using the money line that is coming off a game in which they were leading at the half by at least 24 points and has a defense allowing no more than 17 PPG on the season.

Nebraska head coach Frost is a perfect 6-0 ATS when installed as an underdog and coming off a SU and ATS win. Nebraska is 37-18 ATS facing teams with a turnover margin of +1 or more per game. Michigan is 2-12 ATS off an upset road win.

From the predictive models, Nebraska is 11-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 137-65-4 ATS over the last 20 seasons when they have scored 28 or more points.

South Alabama vs Texas State
7:00 PM EST, October 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on Texas State plus the points

Betting on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the month of October and after failing to the spready by a total of 28 or more points spanning their last three games has earned a quite strong 82-40-1 ATS mark good for 68% winning bets over the last 10 football seasons and went 21-7 ATS for 75% winning bets over the last three seasons.

Make no mistake about it, Texas State has played a much more difficult schedule than South Alabama has so far this season. SA is a money-burning 14-37 ATS coming off a game in which they committed no more than one turnover.

Boise State vs No. 10 BYU

3:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on Boise State plus the points

BYU is 5-0 and ranked no. 10 nationally in the latest polls. Week 6 is by far the week that sees the most upsets and surprising ATS covers too. The market builds momentum on these 5-0 teams and then in week 6 and 7 become overvalued OR they are playing a foe that is grossly undervalued. In this matchup it is a combination of the two and we are getting rewarded handsomely to bet on Boise plus the points.

Boise has a bit of revenge on their minds as well after getting dominated 51-17 in a loss to BYU last season. Boise lost at Nevada last week, 41-31, their most points allowed since allowing 51 to BYU in 2020. BYU has learned they have three quarterbacks that can manage the game. Quarterback health will be a determining factor in how high the Cougars can climb this season. Jaren Hall started the first three games before missing two contests with a rib injury. Baylor Romney started against South Florida and Utah State, but he played one half against the Aggies before sitting out the second half with a concussion. Jacob Conover, BYU's third-string quarterback, finished out the game against Utah State, helping to secure the 34-20 victory. Hall is listed as questionable for this game and given that it is a ribs injury, I can’t imagine him being able to throw the ball well.

BYU is just 2-10 ATS when facing a defense that is allowing 58% or higher completions in games played over the last three seasons. BYU is 10-23 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

Betting on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging just 125 or fewer rushing yards-per-game are a highly profitable 59-20-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the last five seasons and 29-12 ATS over the last three seasons.

Central Michigan vs Ohio University

3:30 PM EST, October 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on CMU minus the points

Ohio University is 2-14 ATS when playing against a team that is no more than one game under 0.500 or not lower than 40% in games played over the last 10 seasons. Ohio is an imperfect 0-7 ATS in home games following a game in which they forced that opponent into no more than one turnover. CMU head coach McElwain is 16-3 ATS when facing a poor defensive team that is allowing 200 or more rushing yards-per-game on the season.

From the predictive side of things, there is a very high probability that CMU will score at least 28 points. In past games when they have scored 28 or more points they have gone on to a 12-2 ATS record over the last three seasons and 83-25 over the last 20 seasons.

Playing on road favorites that are facing a host that has a very poor turnover defense that is averaging fewer than one turnover per game and after 5 straight games in which they forced no more than one turnover in each of them has earned a 31-8 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.

No. 6 Oklahoma vs No. 21 Texas

Noon EST, October 9, 2021

4% Best Bet on Texas plus the points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line

This game is taking place at the famed Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas and hopefully will remain the game called the Red River Rivalry after these teams join the SEC. Texas QB Casey Thompson is a bit of a trader at least perhaps in his family eyes. His brother and father both started at QB for the Sooners, but Casey chose Texas and sat behind Sam Ehlinger for his first three seasons as a Longhorn. He took over the starting job in Week 3 of this season and the offenses has looked monumentally better under his leadership. Including 272 rushing yards in its 32-27 win over TCU last week, Texas has rushed for 1035 yards over its last three games, its most in a three-game span since ripping off 1111 yards from October 15 to November 5, 2011. This is the difference maker in my eyes in this matchup and why I think Texas will not just cover the spread, but win the game.

From the predictive models, Texas will score at least 28 points in this game and are on a 7-1 ATS win streak when playing away from Austin.

Arizona State vs UCLA

10:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 2, 2021

5% 10-UNIT Best bet on ASU plus the points. 

Betting on road teams in game lined with 3.5 points on either side of pick that outgained their previous opponent by more than 125 total yards and facing a host that allowed 6.25 or more yards-per-play in their previous game has earned a 72-28-2 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last ten seasons. 

Saturday's game will feature two potent rushing offenses that are fueled by their running quarterbacks. UCLA has gained 200 or more rushing yards in seven of its last 10 games and has held the advantage in the run game in 10 consecutive games. Arizona State is at 211.5 rushing yards per game this season, second best in the conference, while averaging 3.8 rushing touchdowns in each contest. The biggest difference between these two similar teams is the significantly weaker secondary of UCLA. They are getting scorched for 331 passing YPG, which ranks fifth worst in the nation. Jayden Daniels has increased his completion percentage from 58.3 last season to 72.6 this season, which is the third-largest improvement at +14.3 percent in the FBS with a minimum of 75 attempts each year. 

Bet ASU plus the points as a 5% 10-UNIT Best Bet

Mississippi vs Alabama

3:30 PM EST, Saturday, October 2, 2021

4% Best Bet on Mississippi plus the points and a 1% amount on the money line

After Ole Miss won in back-to-back season of 2014 and 2015, Alabama has won five consecutive games in this SEC series, outscoring the Rebels 298-132. Since 2013, the Crimson Tide are 54-2 in Tuscaloosa. The two losses came against No. 1 LSU 46-41 in 2019, the other was to No. 15 Ole Miss 43-37in 2015. After the 2015 loss in Week 3, the Crimson Tide went on to win the National Championship over Clemson capping off a 12-game win streak. 

The Rebels top the nation with 635.3 yards of offense per game, are fourth with 7.65 per play and slot fourth in rushing offense at 298.7 per contest. They have committed just two turnovers.

QB Matt Corral has emerged as a Heisman Trophy frontrunner, throwing for 997 yards and nine touchdowns without an interception. He has rushed for five scores. He also passed for 365 yards and two TDs in last season’s 63-48 loss and having that experience is invaluable knowing too, that he will be facing a Crimson Tide defensive unit that has regressed significantly from previous seasons. 

Florida gashed the Tide for 245 rushing yards on 43 rushing plays. The Florida defense did not even gain100 rushing yards tallying just 91 yards on 28 carries against the Florida defense. I believe Mississippi is superior on both sides of the ball comparted to Florida and is why I think the upset has very real potential Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa. 

Oklahoma vs Kansas State

3:30 PM EST, October 1, 2021

4% 8-UNIT Best Bet on Oklahoma minus the points

Betting on road teams with an elite defensive team allowing 8 or fewer first-half-points per game and coming off a hard-fought win of 6 or fewer points has earned a highly profitable 30-7-1 ATS record good for 81% wining bets. Drilling down a bit further to include teams in the situation installed as a road favorite and the results improve to a remarkable 23-3-1 ATS for 89% winning bets over the last five seasons. 

From the predictive models, Oklahoma will outgain Kansas State by at least two or more-YPPL and have earned a highly profitable 10-3 SATS the last 3 seasons and 92-29 ATS for 70% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. 

Michigan vs Wisconsin

Noon EST PM EST, October 1, 2021

4% 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points

Michigan is off to a 4-0 start to their season and will look to make it five straight with a win for the first time in 20 seasons when they visit the Badgers in Madison. This is also the first road game for the Wolverines, who have lost the last 5 meetings in Madison.

The Badgers failed to appear in the AP-25 top rankings after a 41-13 loss Saturday to 9th ranked Notre Dame. The score was quite misleading though, as the Badgers made far too many mistakes and turnovers including TWO pick-6 and special teams TDs in the 4th quartter. They had a 13-10 lead in the 4th stanza before completely imploding. They are an incredibly good defensive team and especially at stopping the run. They held ND to just 9 yards rushing and are allowing 23 RYPG over their first three games. 

Michigan is averaging 350 RYP and 47 PPG in their four games but struggled in their conference opener against Rutgers. Despite leading 20-3 at the half, they had just 2 FD in the second half and held on for 20-13 win and were ‘out-statted’ in the box score too. I see Wisconsin dominating both sides of the line-of-scrimmage and winning this game potential in cruise-control fashion. 

From my predictive models, Wisconsin is expected to outgain Michigan by 150 to 200 total yards and in past games when they have achieved this level of performance, they have earned a 28-7 ATS record for 80% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. 

Virginia vs Miami (Fla)

7:30 PM EST, September 30, 2021

5% or 10-UNIT  Best bet on UVA plus the points

The line opened with Miami favored by 3.5 points and early bettor action has moved the market to Miami -3. Both teams are 2-2 SU on the season and this is a pivotable game for both programs. Miami QB D’Eriq King is listed as questionable and even if he does play is not likely to be even close to 80% full strength. The reason this big bet is being released so early in the week is that the line is likely to move closer to pick-em than say 4.5 points. 

UVA head coach Mendenhall is 20-7-1 ATS in his coaching career coming off a back-to-nack games losing the turnover battle. Miami head coach Diaz is a money-losing 1-8 ATS off of a home win. 

Betting on road teams that are coming off a game forcing zero turnovers and now facing an opponent that is coming off four consecutive games forcing no more than one turnover has earned a highly profitable 34-9-1 ATS for 79% winning bets over the past five seasons. 55% of the winning bets covered the spread by at least 7 points. 

Supporting the SU win by UVA is a money line situational angle that has earned a 20-14 record for 60% winning bets that have averaged a +180 wager. Bet on road teams that are coming off back-to-back games allowing 9 or more passing yards-per-attempt and taking on a host that allowed 5.5 passing yards-per-attempt in their last game. I state confidently that UVA will win this game outright even if Miami’s King starts and even greater margin if he does not. 

Colorado State vs Iowa
3:30 PM EST, September 25, 2021

10-UNIT Best Bet on Colorado State

CSU is coming off a double digit road win and are 25-11 ATS in the next game. CSU head coach Addazio is 14-3 ATS in road games facing a non-conference foe and 17-6 ATS in road games in the first half of the season. He is also 12-4 ATS as a road dog facing a winning record program.

Is Iowa the 5th best team in the nation and are they better than 6th-ranked Penn State? My answer is positively not! Iowa and Colorado State are meeting for the first time ever. Iowa beat Kent State at home last week, 30-7. The Hawkeyes have held opponents to 21 or fewer points in 10 straight games, the longest active streak in FBS. The last time Iowa had a longer streak was 11 games between 1959 and 1960.  Colorado State earned its first win of the season last week at Toledo, 22-6. You may remember I had Toledo +17-point underdog, who had Notre Dame on the ropes before losing by just 2-points. The Rams did not allow a touchdown in their win over Toledo, which was the first time since 2016 against Fresno State.

Trey McBride leads the Rams in receptions (30) and receiving yards (339). McBride has been responsible for 46.9 percent of the Rams' receptions this season. I believe you will see a much more balanced offensive attack from the Rams because Iowa is going to bracket McBride in underneath and over the top routes.

Auburn vs Penn State

7:30 PM EST, September 18, 2021

5% Top-Rated Best Bet on Penn State minus the points

ESPN College Game Day is on the Happy Valley Campus and Auburn will be playing in by far the largest stadium (111K) in program history. Making it an even greater home field advantage is the fact that this is a Penn State White Out game, which everyone of the 111K fans will be wearing white. There be an almost invisible sliver in the third deck of Auburn fans. My WagerTalk colleague Ralph Michaels makes PSU the greatest home field advantage giving them 6.5 points in Prime Time Night Games.

SEC teams installed as 7 or fewer-point points are a money-losing 9-18 ATS for 33% wins facing a Big Ten foe. The Lions are roaring and is a team that is only going to get better as the season goes on. James Franklin was the head coach at Vanderbilt before he was hired by PSU and knows the SEC conference first-hand. While at Vanderbilt, he went 8-3-1 ATS in home games including a defeat of Auburn. The best fact of all is that Franklin despite all of the negative media attention on him and hi program last season is on a 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS run coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. He is also 40-16 ATS  off a win and 14-3 ATS off a game scoring 37 or more points.

From the predictive side of things, my machine learning models show a very high probability that PSU will score 31 or more points and will gain 450 or more offensive yards. PSU in home games, scoring 28 or more yards and gaining 450 or more total yards is 25-4 ATS for 86.2% ATS wins.

Ohio University vs Louisiana Lafayette        

Thursday, 9/16/2021 9:45 PM

4% Best Bet on LL Rajin Cajuns minus the points

Betting on home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that is a team allowing 28 to 34 PPG and hosting a guest that is averaging 16 to 21 PPG has earned a 30-8 ATS record over the last 10 seasons.

From the predictive models the Padres are a highly profitable 92-37 in road games when their starter has completed more than 6 innings of work and they have scored multiple runs in 2 or more innings spanning the last five seasons.

Notre Dame vs Florida State

7:30 PM EST, Sunday, September 5, 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet Florida State plus the points

FSU head coach Mike Norvell has 10 returning starters on offense including the QB red shirt sophomore transfer Jordan Travis. He will have plenty of targets this season including graduate transfer Andrew Parchman, who spent the last two years in Kansas. He made 20 starts for Kansas tallying 1,028 receiving yards on 89 catches and 9 TDs. Look for him to make key catches in this game, especially on 2nd and 3rd downs to keep the chains moving.

Ironically, Guard Dillon Gibbons transferred from Notre Dame and you can bet this 6-5 321 lb lineman will want to to show what his former team could have had. Overall, the FSU L is much better than last year’s edition because they have played together in at least one seasons and have solid chemistry across the line too.

Betting on under dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first four weeks of the season that return at least 8 starters including the QB and had struggles on defense allowing 425 or more YPG in the previous season has earned a highly profitable 59-24-1 ATS record good for 71% winning bets over the last 15 seasons and is 21-7-1 for 67% winning bets over the last five seasons.

Betting on underdogs of +150 to +300 using the money line, whose defense struggled last season allowing 5.8 or more yards-per-play and with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning this season has earned an amazing 28-20 SU record, averaging a +210 money line bet and making the $100 bettor a $3,950 profit over the last 10 seasons. Over the last three seasons this angle has produced a 9-8 record, BUT has made $1500 for the $100 bettor.

Bet FSU plus the points as a 4-Unit Best Bet

Boise State vs UCF

Week 1 7:00 PM EST, Thursday, September 2 2021

4-UNIT Best Bet on Boise State plus the points

On the gridiron, I like to bet these underdogs as a combination bet that consists of 80 to 90% of your normal bet size placed on the line and the remaining 10-20% bet using the money line. So, for this game and if you are $100 bettor for a 4-Unit bet, place $85.00 on the line and $15.00 using the money line. Remember though, this is a recommended strategy, and you always have the option to simply bet the game getting the points.

This is going to be a great game to watch that will have several scoring runs by both teams, who have first-year head coaches. UCF has former Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn, who inherits a terrific offense that averaged 568 yards and 42 PPG. New head BSU head coach is Andy Avalos, who was the defensive coordinator for Oregon and has nine defensive returning starters on one of the best defenses in the Mountain West Conference.

Hank Bachmeier was named the starting QB last week and is a 3-year junior signal caller that is vastly underrated. He has been injured in past seasons preventing him from taking his game to those next levels. He has played in only 13-games over the past two seasons. In his first start of his college career he threw for 407 yards in a win against Florida State on August 31, 2019. He has had 6-games completing over 65% of his passes and three of those were over 70%. His favorite target, senior Khalil Shakir, has caught 131 balls for 1,761 yards, and 13 TDs. Bachmeier will have far more weapons this season in WR-X Stefan Cobbs, WR-H CT Thomas, and junior transfer Davis Koetter.

UCF is just 4-13 ATS in games played over the last three seasons with a total of 65 or more points. From the predictive models there is a very high probability that BSU will score 28 or more points. In past games in which they have scored 28 or more points, they are 10-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons and 70% ATS over the last 30 seasons spanning 210 games.

Bet Boise State as a 4-Unit Best Bet

Ohio State vs Alabama

8:00 PM EST, January 11, 2021
CFP Championship Game
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

5% Best Bet on the Ohio State Buckeyes +8 points. 

The current lines for this game price the Ohio State Buckeyes as 8-point underdogs with a total of 75.5 points. The action has seen greater number of tickets and money being bet on Alabama moving the line from its’ opening of 7-points. The UNDER has been the preferred bet and has lowered the total from its’ opening of 76.5 points

The line and total indicate and implied 41.75 - 33.75 Alabama win. The 28-point scoring level is an extremely important benchmark that defines many NCAAF teams ATS success or failure. Overall, teams playing on a neutral field and score 28 or more points have earned a 457-162 SU record for 74% wins and 421-187-11 ATS record good for 74% winning bets over the past ten seasons. 

Ohio State has earned a 10-1 SU record and 7-4 ATS mark when scoring 28 or more points in a neutral field setting. Regardless of location, Ohio State has earned an incredible 99-2 SU mark and 59-40-2 ATS for 69% winning bets spanning the past ten seasons. 

This Championship game implies that both teams will score 28 or more points and my machine learning tools support this in a big way. Ohio State is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS when playing in a neutral field setting and in game where both they and their opponent score 28 or more points. Alabama has been horrible money-losing bets when in games where they and their opponent both score 28 or more points with an 5-3 SU record and an imperfect 0-8 ATS record that has failed to cover the spread by an average of 10-points. 

Betting on neutral field underdogs that are averaging a minimum of 4.75 YPC on the season and coming off three consecutive games rushing the ball for at least 225 yards in each game has earned a highly profitable 38-11-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets in games played over the past 15 seasons. Obviously, this to supports Ohio State.

Nick Saban is a great coach, but there are a few situations in which he has not done well. Since becoming the head coach of Alabama he is 11-22 ATS for 33% winning bets when facing a team that is averaging 235 or more RYPG, and 1-6 ATS for 14% when the game is played on a neutral field. 

How to Bet This Game. 

My recommendation for this 5% Best Bet is to take Ohio State using the spread for an 80% amount of your 5% Amount. Then place 20% pre-flop (before the game) using the juicy money line. I am going to add 10% amounts in-game if Ohio State is lined at +11.5, and +14.5 points. If the +14.5 its live bet is confirmed then, I will immediately add 10% amount on the money line. 

Given the very high TOTAL, this game will have both teams ripping off 10 to 21 unanswered points. So, let the game volatility work with you and take advantage of these contrarian opportunities. Good Luck and Thank you for all the loyal support. 

North Carolina vs Texas A&M

5% Best Bet on Texas A&M -7

Orange Bowl, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

This is a game that I believe Texas A&M will win by at least 11 points. Do NOT make anything of the fact that Texas A&M thinks they should have been the 4th seed in the CFO and that they are going to go out in this game to prove a point. Jimbo Fisher has coached mamny games and has been part of Florida State’s National Championship.

So, I did extemsive research factoring all of the opt-out players and UNC has lost the most starting talent by a landslide and that adds even more confidence to the Machine Learning model predictions.

Quick Hitters:
Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS in road games after playing three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons. 8-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last three seasons. 10-2 ATS  after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last three seasons. UNC HC Brown is 9-22 ATS after a playing a game where 80 total points or more were scored for his career.

Betting on any team in a game involving two excellent rushing teams gaining at least 4.75 YPRA and with one of the teams coming off a game allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game has earned a 35-9 ATS record good for 80% winning bets over the last five seasons.

The machine learning tools I use and have developed predict a near-90% probability that A&M will score 35 or more points. A&M is 121-64-6 ATS when scoring 35 or more points in games played since 2000 and under head coach Jimbo Fisher, they are 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS.

Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX

4% Best Bet on Mississippi State +2.5 points.

Mike Leach took over the head coaching responsibilities this season at Miss State and won his first game against the defending national champion LSU Tigers. We learned quickly that LSU was nowhere close to being the same team last season and Miss State sputtered and lost 7 of their next 8 games, before ending the season on a high note with a win over Missouri. All season, Miss State struggled to run the ball enough for opposing defenses to respect. However, they gained a season-high 154 rushing yards in the win over Missouri.

Since 2000, he has been a head coach in every season except 2010 and 2011. This marks the 17th Bowl game in 18 years as a head coach at Texas Tech, Washington State, and now Miss State.

 Betting on teams with a line within three points on either side of pick-em with a team that is coming off a game where they outgained that opponent b 125 or more total yards and are now facing a team that allowed 6.25 or more yards-per-play in their previous game has earned an impressive 114-61-2 ATS record good for 65% winning bets over the last ten seasons.

Florida vs Oklahoma
Cotton Bowl Classic

AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX

8:00 PM EST, December 30, 2020

4% Best Bet Upset Alert on the Florida Gators +7 points and sprinkle a bit more on the money line.

I would highly recommend placing 70% of your normal 4% bet size on Florida prior to the start of the game. This game promises to have team scoring streaks that we can then exploit to our advantage. Starting with Florida as a 4.5-point underdog right now, add 15% of your 4% bet size in-game with a line of +8 or higher, and then the last 15% amount on Florida at +11.5 points.

Florida is without their top-4 WR, who have opted out, but why then is the line not heading towards making Oklahoma a -11 or more-point favorite? It is simply because Florida has a stable of elite WR and no other team in the country recruits WR better than Florida has over the years.

Using the money, betting on neutral field teams that have beaten the spread by 21 or more points in total over their last three games has earned a 26-21 straight-up record, but has made over $4,100 for the $100 bettor spanning the last 10 seasons of games.

Also, playing on playoff and bowl game underdogs that are getting less than 40% of the tickets bet on them, but more than 60% of the money have earned an outstanding 107-40 record for 73% ATS winning bets since 2011.

Marshall vs Buffalo

Crampton Bowl, Montgomery, AL

5% Best Bet on Marshall +5.5 points.
3% Best Bet ‘UNDER’ 54 points.

1% Parlay Sprinkle Marshall using the Money Line and the UNDER.

I’ll get right to the powerful and highly profitable betting system that supports the Marshall Thundering Herd. In a Bowl Game, bet against a favorite that lost their conference championship game by eight or more points. This situation has seen the false favorite post a miserable 13-18 SU record and a 9-22 ATS record for 29%, and the UNDER earning a solid 21-10 record good for 68% winning bets in bowl games played since 2005.

Drilling down through this dataset by querying only Bowl Games played in December produces a highly profitable 5-12 SU record, 1-16 ATS record for 6%, and the UNDER winning the cash on a 13-4 record for 77% winning bets since 2005.

The market has priced in the loss of Marshall’s star running back Brenden Know, who left the team. Marshall has many running backs that will be eager to step up to take advantage of the extra game time and include junior Sheldon Evans and sophomore Knowledge McDaniels. Freshman QB Wells is a running threat in his own right and completed 61% of his passes for 1,977 yards, 18 touchdowns, , 9 interceptions, and a 144 QBR.

This money line bettig system has earned a 23-19 record for 55% winning bets, making the $100 bettor, a sizable profit of $4,350 in games bet over the last ten seasons. The requirements are to bet on neutral field underdogs using the money line and are coming off three games in which they were beaten by 21 or more points versus the spread. The average money line bet has been +273.

Alabama vs Florida

8:00 PM EST, December 19, 2020

5% Best Bet Florida +17 and yes, sprinkle some on the money line at a +650 price. 

I will be playing this game as an 85% amount of a 5% bet using the spread and then 15% on the money line. 

This betting system has earned a 23-18 SU record for 56% winning bets over the last ten seasons making a $100 bettor a profit of $5,705. The requirements are to bet on neutral field underdogs using the money line after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. 

From the machine learning tools, Florida is projected to gain 9 or more yards-per-pass-play and Alabama is 11-22 SU when they have allowed an opponent 9 or more YPPP. Under head coac Nick Saban, the Tide is 5-11 ATS and just 9-7 SU when allowing 8.5 or more YPPL. 

Florida is 16-2 against the money line when they score 28 or more points over the last three seasons; 26-4 against the money line when they gain 450 to 500 total yards in games played since 2000. 

Illinois vs Penn State
4% Best Bet on Penn State -15 points

 This betting system has earned a highly profitable 48-18 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a conference foe and coming off two consecutive wins and ATS covers as double-digit favorites.

 From the machine learning model and tools, PSU is expected to score at least 28 points and they are 33-11-4 ATS under James Franklin when scoring 28 or more points. Illinois is just 15-53-1 ATS when allowing 28 or more points in games played since 2011. PSU is also projected to gain over 500 yards. They are 16-3 ATS for 84% winning bets under James Fraklin.

Air Force vs Army
3:30 PM EST, December 19, 2020

4% Best Bet on Army and sprinkle soe on the money line. I like making these live dogs combination wagers using the line and the money line. I am wagerig 70% of my 4% bet amount plus the points and then 30% using the money line.

Here is one of the best money line bettig systems you will ever see and has earned a 24-5 SU record over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams facing a non-conference foe, who is coming off two straight wins over conference foes.

Air Force is just 34-42 against the money line (-50.9 Units) when facing good rushing teams averaging a minimum of 4.75 rushing yards-per-carry.

I also like Army using the first-half money lie as they are projected to have the lead at the half. Army is 20-3 SU when gaining 250 or rushing yards in home games and have lead at the half.

Oklahoma vs Iowa State

Big-12 Championship

4% Best Bet on Iowa State +

I also like making this a combination wager consisting of 70% amount of a 4% amount using the line and a 30% of a 4% amount bet using the money line.

Iowa State is active in a very strong betting system that has earned a 46-17 ATS record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on any team that s a good rushing team gaining 190 to 230 rushing yards after playing seven or more games, and after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in their last game and now facing a team that is averaging 140 to 180 rushing yards-per-game.

The machine learning model and tools project that ISU will gain a minimum of 150 rushing yards and average a minimum of at least 6 yards-per-play. In past games where they met these standards, they have earned a 25-9-1 ATS record good for 74% winning bets since 2011. Plus, 15-4 ATS for 79% winning bets when installed as a dog.

UAB vs Marshall
Ryan Conference USA Championship Game
Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntigton, WV

4% Best bet on the UAB Blazers

UAB has posted terrific re zone numbers scoring 23 TDs and 7 FGs on 32 red zone attempts. Only two times did they not score points in the red zone. They have played two games over the last six weeks, but they are led by Senior QB Tyler Johnston III, So, his experience is major advantage for the entire team.

UAB is 35-11 ATS after a two-gae road trip. UAB head coach is 32-18-1 ATS when playing a game on a turf field. Marshall HC Holliday is just 9-18 ATS as a 3.5 to 9.5 point favorite and 1-8 ATS coming off a game in which they scored three or fewer points in the first half.

Home teams, who suffered their first loss of the season after game number 6 has been played and are facing a team that lost to them in their previous matchup has earned a money-burning 26-47 ATS record good for 35% winning bets since 2008.

Betting on road underdogs after the first four weeks of the season, who are facing a host that was beaten by 28 or more points versus the spread over the last ten seasons has earned a 60-26-1 ATS record good for 70% winning bets. So, UAB is the road underdog and Marshall lost 20-0 as a 24-point favorite to Rice in their last game.

Bet UAB as a 4% Best bet +4.5 points and sprinkle some on the money line.

Miami (Fla) vs Duke
8:00 PM EST, December 4, 2020

3% ACC Best Bet on the Miami Hurricanes

 The summary projections from my machine learning toolshed indicate a high probability that the Hurricanes will win this game by 24 or more points.

The following college football betting system has earned a remarkable 76-35-2 ATS record for 69% winning plays since 2006 and requires us to bet on road teams play their second, third, or fourth consecutive road game and are favored by 14 or more points and facing an opponent hat has won 35% or less of their games on the season.

It all adds up to the Miami Hurricanes cruising to an easy win. 

Tennessee vs Florida
5% SEC Best bet on the Tennessee

From my days on Wall Street as an institutional trader, this is an example of arbitrage, which is the simultaneous buying and selling of homogenous securities. In the SEC is buying low with Tennessee and selling high with Florida and getting a spread that is just too many points.

Teams in the SEC, like Tennessee, who have lost five straight and failed to cover the spread in all five games are 5-0 ATS in SEC competition in games played over the last five seasons.

Now, here is a money line betting system that has feasted on getting on cheaply priced underdogs and has earned a 45-65 record for just 43% wins, BUT has averaged a +300 underdog bet and making the $100 bettor a profit of $7,450 in bets made over the last five seasons. The requirements are simple and are to bet against road favorites using the money line after game number 5 of the regular season and having won five consecutive games.

So, I know and understand, that this is a bold statement, but play this bet as a 5% using the line and then sprinkle just a little on the money line – just in case of the shocker of all shockers. I have had at least one underdog of 17 or more points win the game in each of the last 10 seasons. I obviously never know when they will occur, but playing a little on the money line with these double-digit cast to the curb dogs has provided a lot more cash.

Texas A&M vs. Auburn

4% Best Bet on the Auburn Tigers +6.5 points. I also like playing this bet by placing an 85% amount of a 4% bet using the line and then15% of a 4% amount using the money line. This strategy when used on underdogs that I believe have a solid opportunity to win the game adds a significant amount of additional profits over the course of the season.

Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher was a great defensive coordinator for Florida State. He has his A&M team allowing just 3.0 yards-per-rush, ranking second in the SEC behind Georgia, who is allowing a scant 2.4 YPR on the season. In home games, Auburn is a stellar 27-12-1 ATS when facing strong rush defesnes allowing 120 or fewer yards-per-game in games played since 2006.

Auburn is 16-4-1 ATS after having covered the spread in three of their last four games since 2006; under head coach Gus Malzahn, they are 16-5 ATS for 76% winning bets (7-2 ATS when the game is at home).

The bad news of losing 42-13 to No. 1 Alabama last week is good news this week as it puts them into a rock-solid betting system that has earned a highly profitable 33-18-1 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 2000. The requirements are to be on underdogs from the eighth game on, between 3.5 and 9.5 points, and coming off a game in which they scored 3 or fewer points in the first half, and is averaging between 21 and 28 PPG and facing an elite offense scoring between 28 and 34 PPG on the season.

From the machine learning toolshed Auburn is projected to score at least 28 points and when they have accomplished this in past games, they are 15-2 ATS over the last three seasons and 118-47 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plus, a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog and scoring 28 or more points under head coach Malzahn.

Penn State vs Rutgers

Noon ET, December 5, 2020

4% Best Bet on Penn State -11,-11.5 points.  Given that my machine learning model project that PSU will win this game by 20 or more points, simply bet the game with the line that is available for you. 

Here is a consistent money-making betting system that has earned a highly profitable 186-111-2 ATS record good for 63% winning bets since 2011. The requirements are to bet on road favorites that are averaging 31 or more PPG on the season and facing an opponent that has played two consecutive games in which they and their opponents scored 60 or more points. A subset including double digit road favorites and conference matchups produces a 71-39-1 ATS record good fo 65% winning bets since 2012. 

PSU Head Coach James Franklin is a 12-3 ATS off a road win; 27-8-1 SATS off a win against a conference foe; 11-3 off a road win to a conference foe. PSU is an outstanding 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets installed as a double-digit road favorite and facing a host, who has a defense allowing 30 or more PPG on the season. 

Ball State Vs. Toledo

12:00 PM EST, November 28, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Ball State Cardinals plus the points. Consider an additional wager of no more than a 1% amount using the money line

Let’s start with a betting system that has earned a solid 35-9-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to bet on underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are facing an opponent that is allowing right or fewer points in the first half and are coming off two consecutive games in which they scored 20 or more points in the first half. 

Toledo has won 10 of the last 13 meetings, but Ball State has won the money sporting a 7-4 ATS record. Ball State Senior QB Drew Pitt led his team to 38-0 first half lead over Toledo last season enroute to a 52-14 beat-down. He completed 11 fo 16 passes for 65% and 206 passing yards for an amazing 213 quarter rate. His leadership is invaluable and he knows Toledo and their defensive schemes well. So, this is just too many points to give Ball State in this matchup. 

Toledo head coach Candle is just 2-10 ATS when coming off two consecutive games in which 60 or more points were scored in each one. 

Toledo QB Eli Peters remains listed as questionable with a knee injury and even if he does start, he will not be even 80% effective. 

Take the Ball State Cardinals plus the points as a 4% Best Bet Titan and sprinkle no more than 1% on the Money Line

Kent State vs. Buffalo
12:00 Noon ET, November 28, 2020

4% Best Bet on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points.

 There are numerous coaching trends that support Buffalo in this matchup. Head Coach Leipold is 12-2-1 ATS in home games coming off one or more ‘OVER’ results; 18-3-1 ATS in home games facing MAC foes; 7-0 ATS when coming off a game in which the Bulls out rushed the opponent by a minimum of 125 rushing yards; 10-1 ATS in home games facing an opponent that completes a minimum of 58% of their passes.

 From the machine learning model, Buffalo is projected to score at least 28 points and average a minimum of of 6 yards-per-rush. Buffalo is 16-5 ATS over the last three seasons and 70-19-1 ATS the last ten seasons when they have scored 28 or more points. Buffalo is 9-2 ATS and 11-0 SU when they have scored 28 or more points and gained 6 or more YPR since 2011.

 Take the Buffalo Bulls to the bank as a 4% Best Bet minus the points.

Notre Dame vs North Carolina
3:30 PM EST, November 27, 2020

The No.2 Notre Dame Irish will take to the road to face a white hot and No. 25 UNC Tarheels team in a monster showdown. UNC QB Sam Howell is coming off a school-record 550 passing yards in a come from behind 59-53 win over Wake Forest and is atop the ACC standings averaging 338 yards-per-game of total offense including 23 touchdowns.

Notre Dame will try to rotate defensive linemen and corners into the game, but UNC will play fast, especially when they have the matchup them want to exploit on the perimeter and the back-end of the Irish defense. The Irish start a true freshman at corner in Clarence Lewis and you can bet the Tarheels will look to exploit favorable matchups against him and not allow the Irish to have time to substitute for fatigued players.

The ground game of the Tarheels is a two-headed monster in Javonte Williams (109) and Michael Carter (101) both averaging more than 100 rushing yards-per-game. The Irish defense ranks best in the ACC allowing 85.1 RYPG, but that number is going to go up after this game. The solid ground attack is going to put immense pressure on the Irish secondary. The safeties in particular have to lineup closer to the line of scrimmage than normally required to support the run defense. When the safeties are playing run, then the vertical crossing routes are going to be in man converage for Howell to exploit time and time again.

Home underdogs coming off back-to-back games scoring at least 42 points in each game are a rock solid 71-34 ATS for 68% winning bets since 1980 and 16-8 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2017. If both teams are ranked and the home dog is ranked lower in the standings than the opponent (ND =2 and UNC=25), the home dog is a stellar 7-4 SU for 64% winning bets and 9-2 ATS for 82% winning bets since 2006.

The machine learning model projects that UNC will average a minimum of 10 yards-per-pass play and rush the ball for a minimum of 150 yards. In past games in which UNC met or exceeded these performance measures has led to an outstanding 20-1 SU record and 18-3 ATS for 86% winning bets that covered by an average of 14 points in games played since 2000.

Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma
7:30 PM EST, November 21, 2020

5% Big-12 Game of the Month on the Oklahoma State Cowboys

I like Oklahoma State to cover and win the game. So, consider making this a combination wager consisting of 80% of your bet size on the line and the remaining 20% on the money line. Sprinkling the money line into your betting strategies will increase your season-long ROI meaningfully.

The machine learning model projects that Oklahoma State will rush the ball a minimum of 40 times and gain at least 165 rushing yards. In past games in which Oklahoma State met or exceeded these performance measures has led to a 59-11 SU record and a highly-profitable 52-13-4 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets since 2006 and 15-6-2 ATS for 71% winning bets over the last five seasons.

This money line betting system has earned a solid money-making 32-12 SU record good for 72% winning bets  spanning the last ten seasons and underscores my expectations that Oklahoma State can win the game. The requirements are to bet on home teams using the money line that is coming off a game gaining a minimum of 5.5 yards-per-rush attempt, is averaging at least 4 YPRA, and is now facing a team with an average run defense allowing between 3.7 and 4.2 YPRA on the season.

NCAAF Week 12
PAC-12 Action

4% Best Bet UCLA Bruins plus the points over Oregon

My Machine Learning Models
The machine learning models that I developed predict that UCLA will score at least 28 points and hold Oregon to a maximum of 6.5 yards-per-play. In past games in which UCLA met or exceeded these performance measures has earned thema 46-15-1 ATS record good for 75% winning bets since 2006 and under head coach Chip Kelly a perfect 4-0 ATS mark.

Kelly is 14-2 ATS in road games and coming off a game in which his team had no more than single turnover.

Bet on conference road underdogs that are not ranked and facing a conference foe that is ranked and within the first five games of the season and are coming off a game in which they allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards. This set of parameters has earned a 21-11 ATS record for 65% winning bets since 2005.

Appalachian State vs Coastal Carolina
12:00 PM EST, November 21, 2020

4% Best Bet on Appalachian State

I like Appalachian State to cover and win the game. So, consider making this a combination wager consisting of 80% of your bet size on the line and the remaining 20% on the money line. Sprinkling the money line into your betting strategies will increase your season-long ROI meaningfully.

The following betting system has eanred a highly-profitable 26-7-2 ATS record good for 79% winning bets since 2015. The system requires us to bet on a team that is facing an opponent that has covered the spread by a total of 49 or more points over their last five games and in a matchup where both the team and the opponent have a win percentage of at least 80% on the season. In Week 7 of last year Appalachian State was in the same role and defeated Louisiana Lafayette 17-7 as a 1.5-point road underdog.

My machine learning models predict that App State will have at least a five minute edge in time of possession and will run a minimum of 65 plays in this game. In past games in which they met or exceeded this pair of performance measures they have earned an outstanding 25-7-1 ATS record for 78% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 8.2 points.

Illinois vs Rutgers
Noon ET, November 14, 2020
4% Best Bet Upset Alert on the Fighting Illini

The money flows support this play on Illinois. Illinois bettig volume accounts for 68% of the moiney bet on just 28% of the tickets. This reflects a much greater betting amount per-bet placed on Illinois and reflects that the sophisticated professional likes backing Illinois.

This betting system supports Illinois and has eanred a solid 38-10-2 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The requires are to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are gettig outscored by 17 or more points-per-game and have allowed 31 or more points in three consecutive games.

NCAAF Week 11
Army vs Tulane

4% Best Bet on the Army Black Knights

Army is a young team, but playing at a high level and received the 27th most votes in this week’s AP poll. The have not played in three weeks and I do not believe there will be any letdown whatsoever. The team knows that with a win here in New Orleans they will crack the Top-25 poll this coming week.

The following system has eanred an outstanding 75-26-1 ATS mark good for 67% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to be on road teams that are averaging a minimum of 235 rushing yards-per-game, are coming off a game gaining at least 280 rushing yards, and now facing an opponment that has allowed 125 to 150 RYPG on the season.

The machine learning model projects that Army will gain a minimum of 250 rushing yards and this is great news for backers of Army. In games in which Army rushed for 250 or more yards on 60 or more rushig attempts, and scored 27 or more points has earned a 27-11 SU record and a 25-13 ATS mark good for 66% winning bets since 2010.

NCAAF Week 11
Iowa vs Minnesota

4% Best Bet on the Iowa Hawkeyes

First, 48% of the tickets and 77% of the monmey has been on the Hawkeyes in betting action this week and that is supportive of our bet. I like the line at 3 and do not expect it to move to 3.5, but you could see the vig start increasing on the Iowa lines.

My machine learning models project that Iowa will score 28 or more points in this matchup. In past games in which they scored 28 or more has earned them a solid 31-2 SU record and 24-8-1 ATS for 75% winning bets since 2015. And when on the road and scoring 28 or more points, Iowa is a perfect 10- SU and ATS covering the spread by an average of 14 points in games played since 2015.

Eastern Michigan vs Ball State
7:00 PM EST, November 11, 2020

4% Best Bet on Ball State

EMU is coming off a 27-23 loss and ATS win to Kent State. They gained just 61 yards on 31 attempts for a 1.9 yards-per-rush ratio. Their defense allowed 431 yards to Kent State with 212 on the ground and 219 through the air. So, they were outgained by 151 rushing yards and reflects the fact that Kent State dominated both sides of the line-of-scrimmage. These results sets of EMU in a very poor situation for this matchup against Ball State.

The following betting system underscores teams failure to run the ball and control at least one side of the LOS. The system has earned a 151-89-2 ATS record good for 64% winning bets over the last five seasons. The system requires us to be on favorites between 8 and 17.5 points that are facing an opponent that was out-rushed by a minimum of 125 rushing yards in their previous game.

 The machine learning models predict that Ball State will score a minimum of 28 points. In past games dating back to 2010, Ball State is a solid 37-20-1 ATS for 65% winning bets. EMU is 2-9 SU and 2-8-1 ATS when allowing 28 or more points in games played since 2010.

Take Ball State as a 4% Best Bet

No.1 Clemson vs No. 4 Notre Dame
7:30 PM EST, November 7, 2020

The marquee game of the day pits these two ACC powerhouses against eachother in Southbend, Indiana. This game marks the 39th time that Notre Dame has been installed as a home dog and have earned a 17-22 SU record and 23-16 ATS mark good for 59% winning bets since 1980. Heach Coach Kelly is 4-2 as a home dog at Notre Dame as the spreadsheet below reveals.

Since 1996, there have been eight games pitting top-5 ranked teams after six or more games have been played. The home dog in these power matchups has gone 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS for 38% winning bets.

Clemson head coach Swinney is Swinney is 32-13 ATS after two consecutive games where they committed no more than one turnover.

From the machine learning models Clemson is 13-3 ATS when they have scored 28 or more points and their rank is higher in the polls than the opponent’s rank. Notre dame is 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS for 22% winning bets when they have allowed 28 or more points to a team ranked higher than them.

Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State
3:30 ET, November 7, 2020

4% Best On the Vanderbilt Commodores

Let us start with a tried and true betting system that supports the Commodores and has earned a 62-27 ATS record good for 70% winning bets since 2010. The requirements are to be on road underdogs that have allowed 30 or mor epoints in three consecutive games and is facing an opponent coming off a loss of 17 or more points.

Mississippi State has had three consecutive games which they lost the turnover battle. Teams that have an average turnover margin of less than -1 and have had three straight games with a -1 or lower turnover margin are just 64-24-2 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.

The machine learning models project that M-State will rush for 50 to 115 yards and when they have in past games have been a money-burning 5-15 ATS record for 25% winning bets since 2010. Vanderbilt is 9-2 ATS in road tilts when they have allowed 115 or fewer rushing yards.

Houston Cougars vs Cincinnati Bearcats
3:30 ET, November 7, 2020

This 4% bets bet is on the Houston Cougars and consider an alternative betting strategy placing 3% using the line and a 1% amount on the money line. My machine learning models do show a reasonable chance that we could see a headline-making upset. 

This is a matchup in which Cincinnati is in a ‘reversion’ mode meaning their recent performance measures are not sustainable and prone to an average or below-average performance. For instance, the Bearcats are just 3-13 ATS following three consecutive games allowing an opponent 125 or fewer yards since 1990. 

My machine learning models project that the Cougars will gain at least 135 rushing yards and will have no more than two turnovers and will have fewer turnovers than Cincinnati. In past games in which the Cougars met or exceeded these performance measures, they have gone on to earn a stout 36-4 SU record and 30-9-1 ATS for 77% winning bets that covered by an average of 11.5 points in games played since 2010. 

No 21 Michigan vs. No 11 Indiana
12:00 PM ET, Novem,ber 7, 2020

Indiana is off to a fast and unexpected 2-0 start to the 2020 season. Michigan was shocked by Michigan State, who lost to Rutgers, and annot lose another game before their showdown against Ohio State. Let’s get right to the data points.

Road favorites of not more than seven points that rank lower in the AP poll than their host ranks are 24-12 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990 and 7-1 ATS since 2015. Michigan is the team targeted by this database query today.

Indiana is just 3-18 ATS coming off a game in which they covered the spread as a double-digit favorite since 1990.

From my machine learning summaries, Michigan is expected to gain 200 or more rushing yards and outgain Indiana by a minimum of 100 total offensive yards. In past games, in which Michigan met or exceeded these performance measures has led to an outstanding 49-0 SU and 34-15 ATS for 70% winning bets since 1990 and 20-0 SU and 14-6 ATS since 2015. Take the Michigan Wolverines as a Best Bet Titan.

135 Ohio State Buckeyes vs 136 Penn State Nittany Lions
7:30 PM EST, October 31, 2020

4% 7-Star Big Ten Upset Alert on the Lions + 12

Big Thanks go out to Johnny Detroit of WagerTalk and Sportsmemo for giving me the opportunity to join the best assembly of sports handicappers on the planet. Some of these veterans I have known since my internet start back in 1997, so it is an honor for me to be part of this winning team.

The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming off on eof the most bizarre games in recent seasons. They outgained the Indiana Hoosiers, but still lost in overtime on a controversial 2-point conversion that was awarded to the Hoosiers and ended the game 36-35. The Lions were quite rusty and made far too many mental mistakes so it the last play of the game was not the reason they lost the game. Murphy’s Law was certainly on the Lions side of theledge while the Luck of the Irish was on the Hoosiers.

The betting lineopened with the Buckeyes installed as 10.5-point road favorites. The line has since moved to -12.5-points as offered at Caesars, currently, and more than 90% of the bets have been on Ohio State. I expect this vastly lop-sided betting flow will find an equilibrium in the 13 to 13.5-point range as game time approaches. One way to bet this game is place 50% of a 4%-bet amount now and then steadily add 0.25% amount with each ½-point rise in the line. Scaling in your bet in a game where the consensus betting flows overwhelmingly favor the opponent is always a wise choice.

Justin Field and the Buckeyes team performed as expected after a slow start. The Nebraska Cornhuskers had a game plan not to get beat over the top last week. They had their corners, especially on the far side of the field, seven or more yards off the line-of-scrimmage (LOS). So, they simply dared Fields to throw the field side out route, which few College level QBs can make since it is a 30 to 35 yard horizontal high-risk pass. The pass must be thrown hard and accurate.

I past seasons the Michigan Wolverine’s press defense has been obliterated every year by the Buckeye offense. Truly, the only style of defense that is ewffective against he Buckeyes spread offense that features many variations of crossing routes, is the zone-blitz scheme. Guess, who has been usig that scheme the past few seasons? If Parsons, who is arguably the best defensive player in the nation, was in the lineup, this line would be 10-points. Still, the Lions are quite deep at the linebacker position and stronmgly believe they will be highly effective against the Buckeyes offense.

This betting system has earned an outstanding 29-11-1 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets over the last 30 seasons and has four requirements.

1.       Bet on home underdogs.

2.       The game is a matchup of conference foes.

3.       The home dog is coming off a loss of installed as a road favorite of 6 or more points.

4.       The opponent is coming off a home win of 17 or more points.

I run machine learning models that provide a glimpse at what the final box score may look like if the predictions go our way. When we lose a bet these predictions serve to show we lost the bet too.   

The models project that the Lions will gain at least 200 rushing yards, score 28 or more points, and have the same or fewer turnovers than the Buckeyes. In past games in which the Lions met or exceeded these performance measures has produced an outstanding 32-0 SU record and a 27-4 ATS mark for 87% winning bets. Take Penn State and enjoy takig the generous amount of points.                                                                                                             

(123) Notre Dame vs (124) Georgia Tech
3:30 ET, October 31, 2020

4% 7-Star Best Bet on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20 points and is valid up to -22.5 points

 My machine learning models suggest that this is a major mismatch on both sides of the ball. The models project that the Irish will gain a minimum of 250 rushing yards and score a minimum of 28 points. The following table shows the SU and ATS results for each of these parameters and then combined for when the Irish have met or exceeded these performance measures.

 Irish records since 2010

Team

Scoring >=28

Rushing >=250 yds

Combined

Irish

67-12 SU + 53-25 ATS 68%

23-1 SU and 18-6 ATS 75%

22-1 SU + 18-5 ATS for 78%

Yellow Jackets since 2010

Team

Allowing Scoring >=28

Allowing Rushing >=250 yds

Combined

Yellow Jackets

11-48 SU + 13-44-2 ATS 23%

23-1 SU and 18-6 ATS 75%

2-8 SU + 0-10 ATS for 0%

So, you can see that any one of the two or both combined produce favorable results for the Irish and a winning bet. Based on my predictive power ratings, the Irish are a 29-point favorite in this game.

 For the season, the Irish are average a solid 12.3 yards-per-point. The lower the value the better and more efficient the offense is when looking at offensive yards-per-point. The models project that the Irish will post an offensive yards-per-point metric between 10 and 12 in this game. Note, that the Irish are 20-1 SU and 16-4-1 ATS for 80% winning bets when they have posted a yards-per-point reading between 10 and 12. Take the Irish.

(137) Memphis Tigers vs. (138) Cincinnati Bearcats
Noon ET, October 31, 2020
4% Best Bet on the Memphis Tigers +6.5 points and is valid down to an including +4 points.

 Quarterback Brady White and the Memphis Tigers will travel to Nippert Stadium to take on the No 7 Cincinnati Bearcats in a showdown of American Conference teams. White has been solid completing 107 of his 165 pass attempts for 1,375 yards including 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. The Tigers have faced far better competition than the Bearcats, who have faced Austin Peay, Army, and American conference foes South Florida and SMU. The Bearcats man-handled No 22 SMU in a 42-13 road win and covered the number as 1.5-point dogs. With a Tiger win over the Bearcats, they are in position to run the table to end the season 8-1 and would have the tie-breaker over the Bearcats.

 This betting system supports the Tigers and has earned a 57-36-2 ATS record good for 61.3% winning bets over the last five seasons. The requirements are to be on non-ranked road underdogs of 3.5 or more points for their first five games of the season anmd are facing a ranked conference foe.

 Here is a second betting system that support the Tigers and underscores their underrated ground attack. The system has earned a 13-2 ATS record good for 87% winning bets over the last 10 seasons. The system requirements are to be on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in game of strong rushing teams averaging 200 to 235 rushing yards-per-game and with the ranked opponent coming off a game in which they allowed less than 100 rushing yards. Now you can see the upset alert.

Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh
3:30 PM EST, October 24, 2020

7-Star Upset Alert Best Bet Titan on the Pitt Panthers

This Irish team has many uncertainties and is highly suspect based onmy research. Irish love to run the ball, but will be going against on eof the best defensive fronts in the nation. Pitt matches extremely well against the Irish and this is a game that Pitt can win outright.

The line has been static all week, but the total has crashed down from an opening of 48.5 points to the current level of 43.5 points. This is a rare occurrence and brings even greater value to Pitt plus the 9.5 points. The implied final score is an Irish 27-17. The opening line had an implied final of an Irish 29-20 win. So, this shows that Pitt can score fewer points with a total this much lower than the opening and cover the spread.

Pitt has an underrated defensive unit and note that Irish are a money-burning 14-17 SU and 11-20 ATS for 36% when facing a team that allows an average of 285 offensive yards.

From the machine learning models, Pitt is predicted to average a minimum of 7.5 yards-per-pass attempt and will hold the Irish to less than 200 passing yards. When Pitt has met or exceeded these performance measures they are 25-10 SU and 21-11-1 ATS 67% winning bets and 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets since 2010.

Iowa State vs Oklahoma State

3:30 PM EST, October 24, 2020
FOX

7-Star Titan on the Iowa State Cyclones

This betting system supports the Cyclones and works against the Cowboys earning a solid 34-8 ATS record for 81% winning bets since 2015. The requirements for a validated betting opportunity are:

1.       Bet on underdogs between 3 and 9 points.

2.       That are facing a host that is allowing 8 or fewer first-half points-per-game

3.       The host has scored 20 or more points in the first half in each of their last two games.

The following are from the machine learning metrics. The Cyclones are an outstanding 12-1 ATS mark, good for 92% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 24 or more points, having the same or fewer turnovers, and installed as a road dog against a conference foe.

No 8 Penn State vs Indiana Hoosiers
Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN

3:30 PM EST, October 24th, 2020

The Lions have won 22 of the previous 23 meetings with the Hoosiers by an average score of 35-21 since 1993. However, the Lions betting record is 12-10-1 against-the-spread (ATS) for 55% winning bets.

The Hoosiers only win this series was a 44-24 win and easily covered the spread as 3.5-point home underdogs. Since that win, the Hoosiers have lost the last six games and have posted a 2-3-1 ATS mark.

The last two games have been highly competitive between these programs. In 2018, the Lions clawed their way to a 33-28 win but failed to cover the number as 14-point favorites in Bloomington. In 2019, the Lions hosted the Hoosiers in Happy Valley and had another challenging contest escaping with a 34-27 win but failed to cover the spread as 14-point favorites. So, the short betting line for this matchup is not a surprise given the recent history between these programs.

The Lions are a definite contender for the College Football Playoff (CFP) this season. Like the previous five seasons in the B-10’s East Division, the first step along the CFP path for the Lions will lead through the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines.

Currently, in the East Division, the Buckeyes are the favorites with futures odds of -200. The Lions find themselves in second place in the futures standings and are getting +350 at many sportsbooks. The Wolverines are in third and are getting +450 in the futures market. So, those futures lines reflect how much better the Buckeyes are than the Lions and Wolverines. Despite this fact, betting the Lions to win the East Division is a strong wager to make.

The Buckeyes project to be an excellent team, but upsets frequently occur in college football. The Lions returns 15 starters from a team that went 11-2 straight-up (SU), 7-6 ATS, and finished at No 9 in the final AP Top 25 poll. Eight of those starters are on offense, including quarterback Sean Clifford, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and four-of-five offensive linemen. The team elected eight captains in Clifford, Freiermuth, center Michal Menet, defensive end Shaka Toney, safety Lamont Wade, linebacker Jesse Luketa, safety Jonathan Sutherland, and punter/kicker Jordan Stout. The Lions possess excellent team leadership, experience, and talent that makes them a contender to win the Big Ten Conference this season.

The machine learning models have many projections using several performance measures that overwhelmingly favor the Lions to win this matchup by double-digits.

The Lions have one of the most balanced and explosive offensives in the nation. They are expected to score at least 28 points and average a minimum of 6.0 rushing yards-per-attempt. In previous home games installed as favorites and meeting these measures has earned the Lions a perfect 11-0 SU record and an 8-2 ATS mark for 82% winning bets that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.

Take the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points as a Best Bet.

Tulsa vs South Florida

7:30 PM EST, October 23, 2020

7-Star Titan on the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

This betting system supports Tulsa and has earned a solid 82-41 ATS record for 67% winning bets since 1990. The requirements for a validated betting opportunity are:

1.       Bet on road favorites between 10 and 20 points

2.       Facing a host with a struggling defense allowing 31 or more PPG

3.       and after two games in which 60 or more points were scored by both teams in each game.

The following are from the machine learning metrics. Tulsa is an outstanding 42-4 SU record and 33-12-1 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2000 when scoring 28 or more points installed as a road favorite and 5-0 ATS since 2016.

Arkansas State vs Appalachian State
8:30 ET, October 22, 2020
7-Star Best Bet on Arkansas State

App State last played in a 52-21 win over Campbell on September 26 and have to belevie there will be rust on both the offensive and defensive units. Arkansas State are playing their fourth game in 19 days and their offense ranks among the best in the nation in flash stats, but have played a weaker schedule than the SEC teams, for instance. App State has played a much weaker schedule than Arkansas State and the line is off by a TD based on the maching learning metrics.

This betting system has earned an outstanding 31-10 ATS record for 78% winning bets spanning the last 10 seasons. The requirements for the system are:

1.       Bet on road underdogs.  

2.       covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games.

3.       winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.

The machine learning models predict that Arkansas State will score at least 28 points. When scoring 28 points they have earned an outstanding 70-13 SU record for 84% wins and 59-22-2 ATS for 73% winning bets. When scoring 28 or more points as a 10-point underdog has earned a 2-3 SU record, BUT a perfect 5-0 ATS mark that covered the spread by an average of 14 points.

7-Star Best Bet and add no more than a 2* amount on the money line.  

Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide

8:00 PM EST, October 17, 2020

10-Star Titan on the Georgia Bulldogs

Here is a solid betting system that has earned a 34-13 ATS record good for 72% winning bets and 27 of the 34 ATS wins covered the spread by at least 7.5 points. The requirements are to underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a double-digit win over a conference rival and is facing an opponent coming off a road game where both teams scored 34 points or more.

The machine learning models project that the Bulldogs will score a minimum of 27 points and gain a minimum of 175 rushing yards. In past games in which the Bulldogs met or exceeded these performance measures in road games has produced a 23-3 SU recpord for 89% wins and 19-7 ATS record for 73% winning bets since 2010; 5-1 ATS as an underdog.

Nick Saban is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in home games installed as 7-point or smaller favorite as the coach of the Tide.

Mississippi vs Arkansas
3:30 PM EST, October 17, 2020

7-Star Best Bet on the Arkansas Razorbacks

Razorbacks are 25-12 ATS in home games facing good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards-per-game.

This system has gone 35-10 ATS  78% winning bets over the last five seasons and requires us to bet pn any team that is facing an opponent that is getting outscored by 7 or more PPG and has scored 30 or more points in each of their last two games.

The machine learning models project that the Razorbacks will score at least 28 points and gain average of 6.9 YUPPL. In past home games in which the Razorbacks met or exceeded these performance measures has earned them an outstanding 17-8 ASTS record for 68% winning bets and a 7-1 ATS 89% record when facing an SEC foe.