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College Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-14-09	Boise St v. Tulsa +9.5	Top	28-21	Win	100	9 h 53 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Tulsa as they host Boise State set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that Tulsa will lose this game by 8 or fewer points. This is going to be a big test for Boise State and a game that I see them quite possibly losing based on the AiS grading and summary projections. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-10 ATS for 75% winners since 1999. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games and with an inexperienced QB as starter. This system reflects a solid defense that supports a developing QB that many times is vastly under rated by the betting public. This system has also gone 12-3 for 80% winners over the past 3 seasons. Boise
10-13-09	Arkansas St. v. Louisiana Monroe -2	Top	10-16	Win	100	8 h 52 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on LA-Monroe as they host Arkansas State set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 80% probability that La-Monroe will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 57-22 ATS for 72% winners since 2004. Play against home favorites off a win against a conference rival and is winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. Monroe is off a solid win against Florida International by the score of 48-35 and covered the 6.5 point spread as well. This team opened the season against Texas and managed to cover the generous 42.5 point number, but more importantly they scored 20 points and gained 298 yards on offense. Monroe has significant matchup advantages on the LOS, especially with their defensive line. I do not see Arkansas State being successful running the ball. State has had just 150 yards in their last 2 games gaining just 70 against Troy and 80 against Iowa. Iowa
10-10-09	Michigan v. Iowa -8	Top	28-30	Loss	-105	23 h 52 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Iowa as they face Michigan set to start on ABC TV 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 88% probability that Iowa will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 33-4 for 89% winners since 1999. This system also underscores the projections produced by the AiS so even though it is a money line system it is quite valid. Play against road dogs versus the money line after having won 2 out of their last 3 games in a game involving two top-level teams winning >= 80% of their games. The Iowa defense and specifically the secondary will dominate Michigan
10-10-09	TCU -10 v. Air Force	Top	20-17	Loss	-110	23 h 38 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on TCU as they face Air Force set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that TCU will win this game by 10 or more points. AiS also shows a 90% probability that TCU will out gain Air Force by a minimum of 2.0 YPP. TCU is 31-3 ATS (+27.7 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play since 1992. 92 % probability that Air Force will not get 150 or more net passing yards. TCU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when their defense allows 150 or less net passing yards over the last 2 seasons. 88% probability that TCU will score 28 or more points. TCU is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. 88% probability that Air Force will not score more than 14 points in this game. Note that AF is just 4-29 ATS (-27.9 Units) when they score 14 or less points since 1992 and TCU 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when they allow 14 or less points over the last 3 seasons. AF is also a weak 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. Take TCU.
10-09-09	Louisiana Tech +10.5 v. Nevada Reno	Top	14-37	Loss	-105	11 h 36 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Louisiana Tech as they face Nevada set to start at 9:00 EST and can be seen on ESPN and ESPN360. AiS shows an 82% probability that L-tech will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. AiS also shows an 86% probability that L-tech will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that L-tech is a solid 43-15 ATS (+26.5 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992; Nevada is just 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an incredible 45-39 against the Money Line with the average play being a +218.4 dog and making a whopping 59.3 units in profits since 1992. Play against home favorites versus the money line and is a turnover prone team yielding 2.5+ TOPG facing a mistake-free team yielding <=1.25 TOPG. Can you imagine playing Black Jack and getting paid $2.18 for every winning $1.00 hand played? Well, that is exactly what this system has done since 1992. The L-tech defense is playing very well and is vastly under rated. They held Hawaii to negative 7 yards rushing and recorded 7 sacks. Nevada has a strong running game, but based on matchups, L-tech will contain that rushing attack and force Nevada to pass more than would like to do in this game. Moreover, Nevada has had 11 fumbles and lost 10 of them already in just 4 games. L-tech has had just 4 fumbles and lost 2 of them. L-tech ranks 13th and Nevada 120th in turnover margin nationally. Take L-tech.
10-08-09	Nebraska v. Missouri +3.5	Top	27-12	Loss	-105	13 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Missouri as the host Nebraska in the Big-12 opener for both teams. AiS shows an 82% probability that Missouri will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 48-9 for 84% winners since 2004 and the average play has been a +113 dog. Play against a road team versus the money line after playing a game at home and then playing on a Thursday. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 47-32 on the money line and has made 42.5 units since 1992. Play against a road team versus the money line off a home win by 17 points or more and with the game taking place on Thursday. Here is the third system that has posted a 25-14 making 37.1 units since 1992. Play against a road team versus the money line that is off a home blowout win by 28 points or more when playing on a Thursday. The average play on this system has been a dog of +206. Amazing yes. So, do yourself a favor and write these down and do a little homework to take advantage of additional winners as the season moves on. Nebraska defense is much improved, ranking first in points allowed nationally, but it is against inferior competition. Even in the game against V-tech which was another graded winner, Nebraska caught V-tech flat. Missouri is led by a strong passing attack that resembles the one from last season led by Heisman contender Daniels last year. The QB now is Gabbert and he has thrown for 1161 yards, 11 TD
10-06-09	Middle Tenn St v. Troy -4.5	Top	7-31	Win	100	31 h 29 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Troy University as they host Middle Tennessee State set to start Tuesday at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Troy will win this game by 5 or more points. AiS shows a 90% probability that Troy will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that when Troy scores 28 or more points in a game they are a strong 21-6 since 1992. When MTST allows 28 or more points they are a weak 19-34 ATS. Troy is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Troy defeated Arkansas State as a 3 point dog in their last game, but did have 3 turnovers. In their second game of the year Troy had 3 turnovers in a loss at Florida. In the next game they defeated a pretty darn good UAB team 27-14 and covered the 6.5 point number. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 27-10 on the money line for 73% winners since 2003. Play against a road team versus the money line with an opportunistic defense forcing 2.75 or more turnovers/game and after a game where they committed no turnovers. MTST had no turnovers in their win over North Texas last game while forcing 5 turnovers. In the previous game to that one, MTST forced 4 turnovers and had 3 of their own in a heroic last second FG win over Maryland. Troy will be able to run the ball well and this will set-up easy play action pass plays. The strong running game will keep turnovers to a bare minimum and I would not be surprised to see Troy play turnover free. Take the Trojans.
10-03-09	USC -4 v. California	Top	30-3	Win	100	22 h 8 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Southern California as they face California set to start at 8:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 19-10 making 51.4 units since 2003. Play on a road team versus the money line after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season. Here is a second money line system that under sores the strength of the AiS grading and has produced a mark of 46-1 for an incredible 98% winners since 2004. Play on road favorites versus the money line after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game facing an opponent after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 37-11 for 77% winners since 2004. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points and is an average passing team gaining 175-230 PYPG facing an average passing defense allowing 175-230 PYPG after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. HC Carroll is a solid 23-6 ATS (+16.4 Units) versus good rushing defenses allowing <=3.25 rushing yards/carry. Take the Trojans.
10-03-09	LSU v. Georgia -3	Top	20-13	Loss	-110	6 h 31 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Georgia as they host LSU set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows an 83% probability that Georgia will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 68-33 ATS for 67% winners over the past 5 seasons. Play on any team with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Georgia is going to have a field day offensively based on the AiS projections. AiS shows a 90% probability that Georgia will have between 450 and 500 total yards; 86% probability that they will gain 6.5 YPP or more; 85% probability they will outgain LSU by 200 or more yards; 88% probability they will score between 35 and 42 points inclusive. Note that LSU is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when they allow 450 to 500 total yards since 1992; 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992; 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 200 or more yards since 1992; 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) when they allow 35 to 41 since 1992. Georgia is an impressive 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992. LSU just not in a good spot here and further hurt by previous poor games against strong opponents. LSU is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. Tigers are also just 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons; 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons. LSU HC Miles is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better during his LSU tenure. Take the Georgia Bulldogs.
10-03-09	Tulane +6 v. Army	Top	17-16	Win	100	14 h 53 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Tulane as they face Army set to start at Noon EST. AiS shows a 79% probability that Tulane will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 19-10 making 51.4 units since 2004. Over the past 3 seasons it has produced an amazing 12-5 mark making 33.3 units in profits. The average play has been a +322 dog! Play on a road team versus the money line after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in the first half of the season. AiS also shows a 92% probability that Army will not score more than 28 points. Note that Tulane is a solid 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992. Take Tulane.
10-02-09	Utah St. +24 v. BYU	Top	17-35	Win	100	10 h 40 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Utah State as the face BYU set to start at 9:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Utah State will lose this game by 21 or fewer points. Utah State returns 9 starters and their QB on offense and that will be significant advantage for them in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 29-7 ATS over the past 10 seasons for 81% winners. Play against a home team after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games and is a good team hitting 60% to 80% playing a team with a losing record. This system has gone a perfect 13-0 ATS over the past 3 seasons and an impeccable 17-2 ATS over the past 5 seasons. AiS also shows a 90% probability that Utah State will score 28 or more points. Note that Utah State is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Take Utah State. Ai Simulator 5* graded play OVER BYU/Utah State. AiS shows a 79% probability that 65 or more points will be scored in this game. BYU HC Mendenhall is a solid 22-12 OVER (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest; 9-2 OVER (+6.8 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games.
09-30-09	Hawaii +4.5 v. Louisiana Tech	Top	6-27	Loss	-100	10 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Hawaii as they face Louisiana Tech set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Hawaii will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 59% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-6 on the MONEY LINE making 35.4 units since 2003. Play on a road team versus the money line that is gaining >=6.2 YPP and now facing a team with a poor defense allowing 5.6 to 6.2 YPP and after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. AiS shows a 90% probability that Hawaii will score a minimum of 28 points. Note that over the last 2 seasons Hawaii is on a perfect 6-0 ATS run when scoring 28 or more points. Taking a portion of the system above we see that Tech is just 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. L-tech is also coming off a BYE week, which has not served them well noting they are just 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after a bye week since 1992. Granted, the stats may be padded against week competition, but Hawaii
09-26-09	Iowa v. Penn St. -9	Top	21-10	Loss	-110	9 h 1 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Penn State as they host Iowa set to start at 8:00 EST and can be seen on ABC. AiS shows an 83% probability that PSU will win this game by 10 or more points. Revenge is talked about in this game, but will have just a minimal impact on this game. PSU is even more dominant, especially in the skill positions, matching up against Iowa this turn around. This dominance starts on the LOS and there is NO doubt that Iowa will have a very tough time running the ball. Note that Iowa is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus excellent rushing defenses allowing <=2.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Granted, the caliber of play, the Lions have faced has been weak, but the athletes they have will play even better against the best competition. Paterno is a solid 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread. Iowa may have taken any opening drive opportunities to throw the ball in this game when last week against Arizona they threw on 5 of the first 6 plays. Again, even with the injuries to LB starters and the fact that at least 1 of them will not play tonight, the 2nd string is very good in their own right. However, it would mark the first time that standout OLB Navorro Bowman and Sean Lee would start and finish a game together. This simply underscores the strength of the AiS grading and the projection that Iowa will not be consistently effective on offense. PSU did not get the nickname Linebacker U because of a great OL. Iowa has a very good freshman RB in Adam Robinson, who at 5
09-26-09	Arizona +3 v. Oregon State	Top	37-32	Win	100	23 h 42 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Arizona as they travel to face oregon State in their Pac-10 opener set to start at 7:30 EST. AiS shows a 79$ probability that Arizona will lose this game by 2 or fewer points and has a 60% probability of winning the game SU. Magic number for this game is 28 points. AiS shows an 87% probability that Arizona will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that Arizona is a solid 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons; 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) when they score 29 to 35 points since 1992. Moreover, Oregon State is just 22-54 ATS (-37.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Arizona HC Stoops is a solid 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. Oregon State HC Riley is a weak 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in the first month of the season. Take Arizona.
09-26-09	Boise St v. Bowling Green +17	Top	49-14	Loss	-110	22 h 10 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Bowling Green as they face Boise State set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 77% probability that Bowling Green will lose this game by 16 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 64-29 for 69% winners since 2003. Play on home dogs after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games and is a bad team sporting a win percentage of 25% to 40% playing a team with a winning record. Bowling Green is a strong 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus good defensive teams allowing <=310 yards/game since 1992. Nothing worse in CFB then being favored and losing the game SU. BG lost to Marshall 17-10 and were installed as 3 point favorites. Note that BG is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take Bowling Green.
09-26-09	Illinois v. Ohio State -14	Top	0-30	Win	100	19 h 36 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Illinois as they face Ohio State set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Illinois will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Illinois offense has returned 8 starters including their QB and they will be equal to Ohio States' offensive unit. Ohio State will want to run the ball and will have more than twice as many running plays as passing. OSU will want to run the ball as well in order to keep turnovers to a minimum and to control the Top and tempo of the game. This actually can play into Illinois' strengths as they have several WR that match-up very well against the Ohio State secondary. This also reinforces the AiS grading for the UNDER play as well. Take Illinois. Ai Simulator 5* graded play UNDER Illinois/Ohio State. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 44-17 UNDER since 1992. Play under with any team against the total after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games facing an opponent after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game. Ohio State is a solid 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half since 1992. Take the UNDER.
09-25-09	Missouri v. Nevada Reno +7	Top	31-21	Loss	-100	23 h 1 m	Show
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Nevada as they host Missouri set to start Thursday night at 9:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Nevada will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Missouri is off a big win against a weak opponent in Furman last week and this places them in a very poor role for this game. Missouri is just 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) after a win by 28 or more points since 1992. The tempo of this game based on the current total line fits Nevada's style of play quite well. Note that they are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992. Missouri HC Pinkel is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after scoring 50 points or more last game as the coach of the Tigers. The biggest factor in this game is that Missouri's pass defense is not playing well at all and this against weak opponents. They have allowed 726 total passing yards against Illinois, Bowling Green, and Furman combined. Now, they face Nevada, who has played far tougher competition and runs a balanced offensive attack. Play action pass will work wonders for Nevada this week as Missouri must respect the run first. Another important factor is that Missouri returns just 5 starters on offense and only 4 on defense. Nevada returns 7 starters including the QB on offense and 7 more starters on defense. Playing on National TV and at home will make Nevada play above their potential and this may well be a significant upset. Take Nevada.
09-24-09	Mississippi v. South Carolina +4.5	Top	10-16	Win	100	21 h 27 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on South Carolina as they host number 5 ranked Mississippi set to start at 7:50 EST and will be seen on ESPN. AiS shows an 85% probability that South Carolina will lose this game by 3 or fewer points. Also projects a 90% probability that Mississippi will gain 200 to 250 total net passing yards. Note that South Carolina is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when their defense allows 200 to 250 net passing yards over the last 3 seasons. Spurrier is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of SC. The schedule has seasoned SC in its
09-19-09	Nebraska +6 v. Virginia Tech	Top	15-16	Win	100	7 h 52 m	Show
Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Nebraska as they visit V-Tech set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Nebraska will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Nebraska will be very successful on offense and there is a 92% probability that they will score 28 or more points. Note that Nebraska is a solid 87-39 ATS (+44.1 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992. Granted, the Nebraska defense has yet to truly tested, but so far they have played fantastic TEAM defense in their first two games. They matchup extremely well against V-tech as well. Keep in mind that V-tech offense executed quite poorly against Alabama and I actually could make a case that this Nebraska defense is even better. Take the Cornhuskers.
09-19-09	Duke v. Kansas -23.5	Top	16-44	Win	100	13 h 54 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Kansas as they host Duke set to start at Noon EST. AiS shows an 80% probability that Kansas will win this game by 24 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-7 ATS for 80% winners since 1999. Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points and is a dominant team outgaining opponent by 1.2+ YPP facing an average team +/- 0.6 YPP and after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. Her eis a 2nd system that has gone 78-37 ATS for 68% winners since 1992. Play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games and with an experienced QB returning as starter. Here is a 3rd system that has gone 55-23 ATS for 71% winners since 1992. Play on a home team that is a dominant team outrushing opponents by 80+ YPG facing a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in 2 straight games. AiS hsows an 88% probability that Kansas will gain 550 or more total yards. Note that Kansas is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when they gain 550 or more total yards since 1992; 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards over the last 3 seasons; 18-1 ATS (+16.9 Units) when they are outgain their opponents by 200 or more yards since 1992. Duke is just 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when they allow 550 or more total yards since 1992. Take Kansas
09-18-09	Boise St v. Fresno State +8	Top	51-34	Loss	-115	10 h 39 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Fresno State as they host Boise State set to start at 9:00 EST. AiS shows an 84% probability that FSU will lose this game by 6 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 28-4 ATS for 88% winners since 1999. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season and after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses and had a winning record last season. Boise is off to a 2-0 SU and ATS start winning in 2 home games against Oregon 19-8 and Miami(Ohio) 48-0. Fresno blew out Cal Davis 51-0 in a game that was not lined and lost a tough one at Wisconsin 34-31, but covered as 7.5 dog. Fresno State defense is a bit banged up, but they are extremely strong against the run. Boise running game has not been solid and consistent and there is no doubt in my mind that Fresno will control the LOS in this game. Fresno has some great athletes on this team that are vastly under rated. Keep an eye on WR Seyi Ajirotutu. He will be matched up against one of the best corners in the country in Kyle Wilson. Seyi Ajirotutu has a very significant advantage in size and strength and quickness to the ball. I fully expect Seyi Ajirotutu to have a huge night as Fresno will continue to use various formations to get him in man coverage. Take Fresno. Ai Simulator 5* graded play UNDER FSU/BSU. AiS shows a 76% probability that 53 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Boise is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games off a home blowout win by 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons; 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992. HC Peterson is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) off a home win by 17 points or more as the coach of Boise; 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. HC Hill is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread as the coach of Fresno.
09-12-09	Utah v. San Jose State +14	Top	24-14	Win	100	25 h 11 m	Show
Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Troy as they face Florida set to start at 12:20 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Troy will lose this game by 35 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-6 for 81% winners since 1992. Play against a home team with a great scoring defense last season that allowed 14 or less points/game and with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season. HC Blakeney is a solid 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game as the coach of Troy. Ai Simulator 7* graded play on San Jose State facing Utah set to start at 10:30 EST. AiS shows a 75% probability that SJST will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. This is yet another dog that I feel can win the game based on the AiS summary projections and supporting probabilities. They return 8 starters including the QB and 7 on defense as well. Utah is certainly in a rebuilding year returning just 5 starters on offense and are integrating a new QB into the offensive schemes. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-6 ATS for 81% winners since 1992. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after being outgained by 225 or more total yards in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning. SJST is a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after scoring 9 points or less last game since 1992. Take San Jose State for a 7* play.
09-12-09	USC -7 v. Ohio State	Top	18-15	Loss	-105	23 h 39 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Southern California as they face Ohio State set to start at 8:00. AiS shows an 86% probability that Southern Cal will win this game by 7 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-6 mark for 81% winners since 1992. Play against a home team with a great scoring defense last season that allowed 14 or less points/game and with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season. 55% of these plays covered the spread by 7 or more points supporting the case for the potential blowout. There is only ONE fundamental item I don
09-12-09	Houston +16 v. Oklahoma State	Top	45-35	Win	100	18 h 18 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Houston as they face Oklahoma State set to start at 3:30 EST. AiS shows an 85% probability that Houston will lose this game by 15 or fewer points. Houston biggest advantage is that they have 8 returning starters including the QB on offense. That unit will be going against OSU unit that returns just 6 starters on defense. AiS also confirms this matchup advantage projecting a 92% probability that Houston will gain 6.5 yards or more per play in this game. Note that OSU is just 9-31 ATS (-25.1 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. Check out this money line system play that has gone 37-24 making 34 units in profits since 2003. Play against a home team versus the money line after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season. This is not a reason to expect a big upset. The AiS, does however, nail some incredible upsets. One was last year when 10* Mississippi upset Florida in the swamp 31-30 as a 24.5 point under dog. Although, these upsets occur, the risk/reward profile does not validate an extra wager. Stick with the 10* and the points. Houston QB Case Keenum has thrown for 300 or more yards in 14 of the past 15 games. His veteran leadership will be one of the dominant reasons Houston will stay in this game and make it far closer than OSU would like. Take Houston.
09-10-09	Clemson +5.5 v. Georgia Tech	Top	27-30	Win	100	27 h 49 m	Show
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Clemson as they face Georgia Tech Thursday night set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows an 83% probability that Clemson will lose this game by 5 or fewer points and a 53% probability that they will win the game. AiS shows a 92% probability that GT will gain 5 to 5.5 net passing yards. Note that they are just 3-8 against the money line (-9.8 Units) in home games when they gain 5 to 5.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992; GT is also a weak 3-6 against the money line (-13.0 Units) after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. I also like a 3* graded play UNDER in the first half line based on the AiS sumamry projections. Supporting this play is a solid winning system that has gone 38-13 UNDER since 1992. Play under any team versus the the 1rst half total after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game and with an experienced QB versus opponent with inexperienced QB, in the first month of the season. GT runs a unorthodox triple option and Clemson has the speed and most importantly the discipline to shut this offense down

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