North Carolina is certainly nowhere the same team right now as they were a season ago. The Tar Heels lost a lot of firepower and experience, and replacing that is a lot of youth and inexperience. And that lack of experience has been quite evident in their first three games of the season. Carolina has turned the ball over an incredible 59 times which is a huge negative indicator for the Tar Heels. "We've got to stop turning the ball over," head coach Roy Williams said. "You've got to value the dadgum basketball. We have no chance in New York if we don't get some things changed quickly.

The Celtics enter tonight

Cleveland is in a tough spot tonight as they enter this game on a back-to-back set. The Cavs played in a fast-paced game last night against the Warriors, and that effort may leave them a bit fatigued for tonight. Cleveland has won five straight games, but they

Under Rick Pitino, the Louisville Cardinals have started their seasons slowly. But Pitino is changing things for tonight

Cleveland

UCLA is replacing three 4-year starters this season which means the Bruins are an extremely young team. Replacing that experience are freshman and sophomores (9 out of 12 on the roaster) who will be seeing their first major college basketball action tonight. So it

LSU made a nice tournament run last year, but they

Many expect the loss of Patty Mills to be detrimental to St. Mary

Both the Raptors and Clippers are going through a rough stretch right now. Toronto is dealing with a ton of injuries; "Turkoglu's banged up. Andrea Bargnani is banged up. Chris Bosh. Jose Calderon. Antoine Wright. We have a lot of guys getting treatment," Toronto head coach Jay Triano said.

Los Angeles is dealing with a major injury as well with Eric Gordon out due to a strained groin. Gordon is the second leading scorer for the Clippers, but more importantly, he is the floor general. And the team misses him a lot. "We miss him tremendously," Marcus Camby said. "I never thought we would miss him as much as we do. Obviously he's the one guy who has to be a constant for us. A guy like Eric is sorely missed for what he brings to the court."

In his absence, the Clippers have scored just 84 and 79 points. And now their leading scorer, Chris Kaman, has a virus that caused him to miss practice yesterday. He is officially listed as questionable tonight, but even if he plays, it

Northern Illinois will be the class of the MAC this season. The Huskies return all of their top scorers, and they are much more experienced than a season ago. Their backcourt is solid and has tremendous depth while their frontcourt is big and tough, led by 6-11 Sean Kowal.

And there

Cleveland enters this game off a solid offensive performance in Orlando last night. The Cavs scored 102 points while shooting 48.1% (37-77) from the floor and a whopping 71.4% (10-14) from three-point land. But Cleveland will be facing a different kind of pace tonight. Orlando loves to run and play fast, and when given the chance, the Cavs often do the same. However, they would much rather play half-court basketball, and that is exactly Miami

The Hornets catch the red-hot Suns at the perfect time. Phoenix returns home off a 5-game Eastern road trip in which they played those 5 games over a 7-day stretch. Now they must play tonight

The last time the Celtics played on their home court, they allowed the Phoenix Suns to score 110 points. Boston lost that game, and their defense was abysmal as they allowed the Suns to shoot 50% from the floor and 54.2% from three-point land. With the Celtics returning home for this game, we expect their defense to make amends for that poor performance.

Utah is a team that needs to play at a fast pace in order to have success. When not allowed to get out and run, the Jazz have trouble on the offensive end of the floor. In games in which they

Dallas wanted to play at a fast pace this season, but an injury to Josh Howard prevented the Mavs from doing that early this season. But Howard returned to the lineup on Saturday night against the Raptors, and the offensive numbers were off the charts.

The Mavs scored 129 points while shooting an incredible 62.4% (53-85) from the floor. They also hit 50% of their three-pointers (10-20). That offensive explosion wasn

Utah is off to their worst start in seven years. The Jazz are currently just 2-4 SU/ATS which includes a 0-2 SU/ATS mark of the road, but Utah is putting a lot of emphasis on this 4-game Eastern Conference road trip.

Portland is coming off a big win on national TV Friday night versus the Spurs and it is hard to imagine the Blazers will have as much focus tonight against a struggling Minnesota squad. Portland qualifies in a letdown spot this evening and the Blazers are not an explosive team which makes it more difficult for them to win by large margins. In fact, Portland has only won once this season by more than 9 points and has not won any of their six games by more than 12 points.

Minnesota is a young squad, but they play hard and despite their 1-5 straight-up record, they are a profitable 4-2 against the spread this season. The Timberwolves are 2-0 ATS on the road this season with each loss coming by just 8 and 3 point margins. Minnesota fits a solid 54-32 ATS bounce-back situation which plays on teams coming off a double-digit SU loss as a favorite and the Timberwolves qualify in a 118-72 ATS big underdog situation tonight.

Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

The Celtics are off back-to-back disappointing efforts, so expect them to get their defensive swagger back tonight in New Jersey. For the second straight game, the Celtics allowed their opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field. Last night was also the first time that Boston allowed over 100 points in a game this season.

Milwaukee figures to struggle going forward. The Bucks lost their best player and scorer, Michael Redd, to a knee injury. Redd will be out for at least two weeks, and without him on the floor, the Bucks simply lack any offensive firepower. In their loss at Chicago on Tuesday, the Bucks scored only 81 points while shooting a dismal 39.6% from the floor and 20% from three-point land.

Things look to be getting worse as Milwaukee head coach Scott Skiles has already used 3 different starting lineups and the players know they are a work in progress. "It'll take 10 or 15 games to kind of get your rhythm back, especially with a defense on you. When you're working out in the off-season and nobody is really banging you, you've got to get used to that.

Milwaukee lacks offensive firepower with Michael Redd out of the lineup. Redd is their best player and leading scorer and playing without him makes the Bucks limited. They are starting a rookie, Brandon Jennings, at the point guard spot which also makes things more difficult.

The Bucks scored only 81 points at Chicago on Tuesday night; they shot 39.6% from the floor and 20% from three-point land. So far, Bucks

Chicago

The Celtics defense has been downright nasty. They

Chicago is in a good spot to get a convincing win tonight. The Bulls return home off back-to-back road losses at Boston and Miami, and they catch Milwaukee without their best player, Michael Redd, who is out because of a knee injury. Redd

The Lakers are 2-1 so far this season, but going unnoticed by the betting marketplace is the fact that they

Atlanta is 2-0 so far this season and hot starts are nothing new for the Hawks. Last year they won their first six games before losing their seventh on a buzzer-beater at Boston. Tonight

These two teams enter tonight

It

Detroit is changing their style of play this season. New head coach John Kuester, who came over from Cleveland, wants the Pistons to play at a quicker, faster pace. And their roster is geared to do just that after losing defensive-minded guys like Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess. Replacing them now are younger, offensive-minded guys like Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.

"We got a number of guys that are very good individually one-on-one," Kuester said. "You talk about Rip Hamilton coming off screens, you have Ben Gordon -- a prolific scorer at times, Tayshaun Prince has a great feel for the game offensively, Rodney Stuckey has scored 40 points in a game already, and Will Bynum is just explosive. We have a number of players that have the capability of putting the numbers up."

Defensively, Detroit was terrible in the preseason, especially in the paint. The Pistons allowed four teams in row to shoot over 50% as their transition defense allowed a lot of fast-break baskets. Memphis has a young team that is also looking to run with offensive-minded guys like Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo, and they will be able to take advantage of the weak Detroit defense and score easy buckets. These two teams are much better on offense than they are on defense, and that means we should see a high-scoring game tonight.

Play OVER the total.

Game analysis will be available at 2 pm ET.

Play CELTICS (+).

Cleveland

The oddsmakers have struggled to post an accurate total in this series and tonight

The Magic won their first NBA Finals game in franchise history on Tuesday and they shot a NBA Finals record 62.5% from the field, yet they still did not cover the pointspread and only won by 4 points. This is a bad sign for Orlando as the Lakers were not focused on defense in Game 3 as Los Angeles has shown the tendency to letdown after big wins in the playoffs and this was definitely possible on Tuesday after an emotional overtime win on Sunday in which the Lakers established a 2-0 series lead. When the home team wins the first two games in the NBA Finals, they win the series 94% of the time, plus Phil Jackson coached teams are 43-0 all-time in their series after win Game 1, so a letdown was natural for the Lakers.

Los Angeles should have better focus tonight and they are a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS after a straight-up loss in the playoffs this season with outright wins by 14, 13, 40, 19, 6 and 9 point wins for an average victory by 16.8 points per game. Los Angeles is also a fantastic 27-11 ATS in all games as an underdog the past two seasons.

Los Angeles blew 10-point leads in both regular season losses to the Magic, but Lakers bounced back with a strong 25-point win Game 1 and they held the Magic to just 29.9% FG in Game 1 and only 41.8% FG in Game 2, so it appears the Lakers terrible defensive performance in Game 3 was an abnormality and due largely to the Lakers

The high-scoring result in Game 3 was extremely misleading as both teams shot way above their normal averages as the Lakers hit 51.3% FG and the Magic shot 62.5% from the field which set a NBA Finals record. Despite these ridiculous shooting percentages, the game still went Over by just 14 points as the pace of play was slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 180.5 points and my re-scoring percentage model totaling only 180 points which is the accurate total had each team shot their normal percentages from the field.

The pace of play has been consistently slow in all three games so far as Game 1 easily went Under the total by 31 points with a total score of just 175 points. My re-scoring pace and percentage models totaled just 189 and 193 in that game. Game 2 stayed Under the total by 26 points before overtime and there were just 176 total points scored in regulation time. The pace of play was once again slow as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 180.5 with my re-scoring percentage model totaling only 177 points.

The oddsmakers were way off with their posted Over/Under lines for Games 1 & 2 and this caused them to drop the Game 3 line (198) a full eight points lower than the opening line from Game 1 (206). The oddsmakers have now overadjusted back up and the opening number of 203 has quickly been bet down in Game 4. There is still plenty of value with the Under as this line is nearly three points higher than Game 3 and Orlando has played better defense and lower scoring games at home this season where they average just 192.7 total points per home game. NBA playoff games are normally lower scoring than regular season games as teams bring more focus and intensity on defense. This is especially true in games between a pair of Class-A squads and tonight

Game 1 easily went Under the total by 31 points with a total score of just 175 points. My re-scoring pace and percentage models totaled just 189 and 193 in that game. Game 2 stayed Under the total by 26 points before overtime and there were just 176 total points scored in regulation time. The pace of play was once again slow as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 180.5 with my re-scoring percentage model totaling only 177 points.

The oddsmakers were way off with their posted Over/Under lines for Games 1 & 2 and this has now caused them to drop the Game 3 line a full eight points lower than the opening line from Game 1. Despite this move down, there is still value with the Under as Orlando has played better defense and lower scoring games at home this season where they average just 192.4 total points per home game. NBA playoff games are normally lower scoring than regular season games as teams bring more focus and intensity on defense. This is especially true in games between a pair of Class-A squads and tonight

The Lakers were in a solid situation on Thursday as Class-A home teams normally perform well in Game 1 at home. The situation now favors Orlando as quality road teams normally bounce back in Game 2 after a straight-up loss and the Magic fit a solid 36-16 ATS situation based on that premise. Orlando also fits a strong 41-18 situation which plays on road teams that are coming off a 20+ point SU loss.

The Lakers were focused for Game 1 as they had lost both regular season meetings to the Magic, however the Lakers have shown the tendency to letdown after an easy win in the playoffs this year. In fact, Los Angeles is just 2-7 ATS following their past nine playoffs wins within the same series.

Orlando won both regular season meetings this season SU and ATS and the Magic are an excellent 18-6 ATS as an underdog in all games with either Nelson or Alston in the lineup at point guard this season, excluding their late season loss at Milwaukee in which the starters were rested. Orlando has also been an excellent play off a straight-up loss under head coach Stan Van Gundy, including an incredible 30-6 ATS after a SU road loss and 32-11 ATS when playing with same season revenge.

You might consider putting part of your play on the money-line (+280) as Orlando has a chance at the outright win tonight.

Play MAGIC (+) as a 1.5 unit play.

The public loves to play the Over and the NBA Finals have more public money than a typical NBA game normally sees. For this reason, the oddsmakers have been forced to inflate tonight

Four of the five playoff games in this series have gone Over the total, but this has caused the oddsmakers to inflate the total and we get excellent line value with the Under as my power ratings using all games this season predicts just 185 and tonight

The Lakers have shown the tendency to letdown after a win in the playoffs, but this has been more than compensated for in this inflated pointspread tonight and we now get solid line value with the best team in the Western Conference (and perhaps the entire league) at a nice underdog price. In fact, the Lakers are 25-11 ATS in all games as an underdog the past two seasons.

It is only the third time in the nine head-to-head meetings this season that the Lakers have been installed as an underdog versus Denver and Los Angeles won Game 3 outright, 103-97, as a 3½-point underdog last Saturday. The Lakers won three of the four regular season meetings by 7, 14, and 14 point margins this season and the Lakers also won Game 1 even though they did not play well. Denver got the win in Game 2 as the Nuggets qualified in a strong bounce-back situation, but Los Angeles actually outplayed Denver in that game and the Lakers blew a 14-point lead. The Lakers won Game 3 outright as mentioned above and they also won Game 5 on Wednesday.

The Lakers dominated the Nuggets last year winning all three regular season meetings and sweeping all four playoff games. Overall, the Lakers were a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS versus the Nuggets last season, winning by 28, 4, 17, 14, 15, 18, and 6-point margins (average win by 14.6 points per game). The Lakers are 13-3 straight-up in all games versus the Nuggets the past two seasons and Los Angeles presents value at an inflated underdog price tonight.

Play LAKERS (+) as a 1 unit play.

Despite trailing 3-1 in this series, the Cavaliers still have the best record in the league this season at 75-19 (.798) and they avoid elimination on their strong home court tonight where they stand 44-2 SU this season (excludes regular season finale when starters were rested). Cleveland outscores their opponents by +14.2 points per game and has outshot them 47.8% to 41.9% from the field.

Games 1 & 2 in Cleveland were both decided by exactly one point, but it was misleading as the Cavaliers dominated both games and blew a 16-point lead in Game 1 and blew a 23-point lead in Game 2. Cleveland also held an 8-point lead at Orlando in Game 4 and they have led entering the fourth quarter in three of the four playoff games in this series. The Cavaliers should bounce back with a solid effort tonight and quality home teams off exactly two playoffs losses are a strong play and the Cavaliers fit a 75-42 ATS situation based on that premise.

One of the reasons the Magic have performed well against Cleveland this season (7-0 ATS) is because Orlando has shot well above their normal percentage from three-point range. In fact, the Magic have hit 45, 46, 54, 55, 48, 43, and 45% from long range in each meeting so far. This is a combined 76-for-184 (41.3%) in the seven games and it is unlikely to continue as Orlando has only averaged 37.9% shooting from beyond the arc this season (versus opponents that allow 36.5%), while Cleveland is a strong defensive squad that allows just 33.5% from three-point range (versus opponents that average 36.6%). This means Orlando should be hitting only 34.9% from three-point range and the Magic are due for a correction and the past numbers have produced some misleading results.

Play CAVALIERS (-) as a 1 unit play.

This series is now tied 2-2, but the Lakers are still the best team in the Western Conference with a 75-23 SU (.765) record this season which is a full 10 games better than the Nuggets. Los Angeles was in a letdown spot in Game 4 and they lost 120-101, but the Lakers should bounce back with a solid effort on their strong home court tonight where they stand 43-7 SU this season with an average win by +10.2 points per game where they outshoot their opponents 47.6% to 42.8% from the field.

The Lakers are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS after a loss in the playoffs this season with wins by 14, 13, 40, 19, and 6-point margins for an average win by 18.4 points per game. Los Angeles also fits a solid 66-42 ATS playoff situation which plays on quality teams that are coming off a double-digit loss.

Los Angeles won three of the four regular season meetings by 7, 14, and 14 point margins and the Lakers also won Game 1 last week even though they did not play well. Denver got the win in Game 2 as the Nuggets qualified in a strong bounce-back situation, but Los Angeles actually outplayed Denver in that game and the Lakers blew a 14-point lead.

The Lakers dominated the Nuggets last year winning all three regular season meetings and sweeping all four playoff games. Overall, the Lakers were a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS versus the Nuggets last season, winning by 28, 4, 17, 14, 15, 18, and 6 point margins (average win by 14.6 points per game).

Play LAKERS (-) as a 1 unit play.

Despite trailing 2-1 in this series, the Cavaliers still have the best record in the league this season at 75-18 (.806) and they should bounce back and tie this series tonight. Cleveland presents value in a basic straight-up win situation and Class-A teams off a loss have historically been a strong play in the postseason. The Cavaliers fit a 52-22 ATS situation based on that premise and they also qualify in a 36-16 Game 4 situation tonight.

The Magic have matched up well versus Cleveland during the past two seasons, but the Cavaliers have still outplayed Orlando in two of the three playoff games so far. Cleveland blew a 16-point lead at home in Game 1 in an eventual 107-106 loss and the Cavaliers also blew a 23-point lead in Game 2 before LeBron James a game-winning three-point shot at the buzzer. Orlando responded with a solid effort at home in Game 3, but the situation now favors Cleveland to bounce back off the loss.

One of the reasons the Magic have performed well against Cleveland this season (6-0 ATS) is because Orlando has shot well above their normal percentage from three-point range. In fact, the Magic have hit 45, 46, 54, 55, 48, and 43% from long range in each meeting so far. This is a combined 59-for-146 (40.4%) in the six games and it is unlikely to continue as Orlando has only averaged 37.8% shooting from beyond the arc this season (versus opponents that allow 36.5%), while Cleveland is a strong defensive squad that allows just 33.5% from three-point range (versus opponents that average 36.4%). This means Orlando should be hitting only 34.8% from three-point range and the Magic are due for a correction and the past numbers have produced some misleading results.

Play CAVALIERS (-) as a 1½ unit play.

The first three games in this playoff series have all stayed Under the total and this has now caused the oddsmakers to lower the Over/Under line a full six points less than in Game 1.

Games 1 & 2 totaled 208 and 209 points which is right around tonight

A tough loss with the Under in Game 2 as LeBron James hit a game winning three-point shot at the buzzer to send it Over by a couple of points. The pace of play was still not that fast as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 180.5 and my re-scoring percentage model totaled only 181 as Orlando shot well above their expected percentage from the field (47.9% FG) and also from three-point range (43.5%).

Game 1 was also high-scoring, but this was because both teams shot well above their expected averages from the field as Cleveland hit 49% FG and Orlando shot 55% FG. These averages are unlikely to continue as both the Cavaliers and Magic are still two of the best defensive teams in the league and each should respond with a stronger defensive effort tonight. This game also fits a solid 62% Under situation based on the fact the first two games went Over the total.

The Magic are 54-41 Under in all games this season and they allow just 93.9 points per game and only 43.5% FG (versus opponents that average 99.5 ppg and 45.9% FG) and Orlando has been even better defensively at home where they permit just 91.0 ppg and only 42.7% FG and are 30-16 Under. Cleveland is 51-41 Under in all games this season and they permit just 90.4 points per game and only 43.0% FG (versus opponents that average 99.1 ppg and 45.7% FG).

The high-scoring results in Game 1 and 2 have now created excellent line value as the oddsmakers have inflated tonight

The Lakers were the best team in the Western Conference and they present value coming off a straight-up loss and at a rare underdog price. The oddsmakers are forced to inflate the line tonight because Denver has a strong home court and mainly because the Nuggets are an incredible 11-0-1 ATS in the playoffs this season. This strong pointspread record is actually a negative indicator and the Nuggets fit a 17-44 ATS situation which plays against playoff favorites on a 3-0 ATS run.

The Lakers also qualify in a solid 26-12 ATS Class-A bounce-back situation and this is the first time in the seven head-to-head meetings versus Denver this season that the Lakers have been installed as an underdog. Los Angeles won three of the four regular season meetings by 7, 14, and 14 point margins and the Lakers also won Game 1 on Tuesday even though they did not play well. Denver got the win on Thursday in Game 2 as the Nuggets qualified in a strong bounce-back situation, but Los Angeles actually outplayed Denver in that game and the Lakers blew a 14-point lead.

The Lakers dominated the Nuggets last year winning all three regular season meeting and sweeping all four playoff games. Overall, the Lakers were a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS versus the Nuggets last season, winning by 28, 4, 17, 14, 15, 18, and 6 point margins (average win by 14.6 points per game).

Play LAKERS (+) as a 1 unit play.

Game 1 was high-scoring, but this was because both teams shot well above their expected averages from the field as Cleveland hit 49% FG and Orlando shot 55% FG. These averages are unlikely to continue as both the Cavaliers and Magic are still two of the best defensive teams in the league and each should respond with a stronger defensive effort in Game 2 tonight.

The Magic are 54-40 Under in all games this season and they allow just 93.9 points per game and only 43.5% FG (versus opponents that average 99.5 ppg and 45.9% FG). Cleveland is 51-40 Under in all games this season and they permit just 90.4 points per game and only 42.9% FG (versus opponents that average 99.1 ppg and 45.7% FG).

The high-scoring result in Game 1 has now created line value as the oddsmakers have inflated tonight

Despite their 105-103 loss in Game 1 on Tuesday night, the Denver Nuggets still got the pointspread win as a 6½-point road underdog. The Nuggets are now 10-0-1 ATS in all playoff games this season. Denver has also bounced back with solid efforts following their other two straight-up losses in the postseason.

Denver lost Game 3 at New Orleans, 95-93, as a 4½-point underdog and then bounced backed with an easy 58-point road win that tied an NBA playoff record. Denver also responded with an easy 14-point win in the previous round versus the Mavericks after the Nuggets lost Game 4 at Dallas 119-117 as a 2-point underdog.

Denver outplayed the Lakers on Tuesday night and the Nuggets led for the majority of the game, including a 13-point lead, and the Nuggets never trailed the entire night by more than 4 points, covering the pointspread from start to finish.

Los Angeles was in a strong 46-17 ATS situation in Game 1 and still failed to cover. The situation now favors the Nuggets to bounce back as quality teams in Game 2 have historically been solid plays after a straight-up loss and Denver fits a 55-28 ATS situation based on that premise.

Denver continues to hold the edge down low versus the Lakers and the Nuggets outshot Los Angeles 51% to 40% from two-point range in Game 1 and held a 46-40 points in the paint edge. In fact, Denver has now outshot the Lakers from two-point range in four of the five head-to-head meetings this season and Denver has outscored the Lakers from two-point range in four of those five games also.

Play NUGGETS (+) as a 1 unit play.

Cleveland dominated Detroit and Atlanta in the first two rounds, but the Cavaliers will now be stepping up in class and facing a much stronger opponent in the Orlando Magic. The Cavaliers have not played since last Monday (May 11th) and the eight days of rest might actually leave the team a bit flat tonight.

Orlando remains one of the best pointspread teams in the league under head coach Stan Van Gundy and Orlando has been particularly strong on the road with a solid 59-35 ATS in all road games, including 30-16 ATS as a road underdog.

The Magic also match up well versus Cleveland and actually outplayed them in the three head-to-head meetings during the regular season. Orlando won both home games easily and held 25 and 41 point leads. The Magic lost their one trip to Cleveland, but Orlando still got the ATS cover, losing just 97-93 as a 6½-point underdog. The Magic outscored the Cavaliers by +30 points from two-point range in the three meetings this season and Orlando led entering the fourth quarter in all three games.

The Magic also performed well versus Cleveland last year with a 3-1 SU/ATS record and the Magic are 10-1 ATS in their past eleven head-to-head meetings versus the Cavaliers.

Play MAGIC (+) as a 1 unit play.

The Nuggets have covered all ten playoff games versus New Orleans and Dallas, but they are now stepping up in class versus the best team in the Western Conference. Denver

Game 7

Despite losing two of the past three games, the Lakers are still the best team in the Western Conference and they will be ready to play in this must-win Game 7 today. Los Angeles overlooked the Rockets in Game 4 when it was announced that Yao Ming was out for the rest of the playoffs due to a broken left foot. Los Angeles was embarrassed and never led in the entire game and actually trailed by 29 points entering the fourth quarter of play.

The Lakers then bounced back with a powerful effort at home in Game 5 and won easily 118-78, including a 40-point lead entering the fourth quarter. Los Angeles came out flat again on the road in Game 6 and lost outright 95-80 and never led the entire night.

Los Angeles has shown the ability to bounce-back after a loss as they are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in the postseason after a defeat which includes that easy 40-point win in Game 5 and also includes a 13-point win in Game 2 and a 14-point win in the previous series versus Utah on the road in Game 4.

Meanwhile, the Rockets have shown the tendency to suffer a letdown after a big win as Houston is only 2-10 ATS after a straight-up underdog win this season, including 0-2 SU/ATS in this playoff series. The Rockets have been a much weaker team on the road where they stand just 22-25 SU, compared to 38-9 SU at home, and the Rockets are 1-4 SU/ATS in Los Angeles this season with the four losses coming by 29, 12, 13, and 40 point margins.

Play LAKERS (-) as a 1 unit play.

The Lakers bounced back as expected on Tuesday night with an easy 40-point home win and this has now created an inflated line in Game 6 tonight. The Rockets were only an 8-point home underdog without Yao Ming in Game 4 on Sunday and Houston won that game outright 99-87 in a game in which they never trailed and led by 29 points entering the fourth quarter.

Houston has been a strong home team this season with a 37-9 SU record and teams coming off a blowout loss have historically been a strong play in the NBA playoffs. In fact, Houston now qualifies in an excellent 59-33 ATS situation based on that premise.

Play ROCKETS (+) as a 1 unit play.

The Celtics are a weaker team without Kevin Garnett and despite back-to-back SU wins, they are still the inferior team in this series. The Celtics used a winning shot at the buzzer last Sunday for their 95-94 win in Orlando and Boston qualified in a strong bounce-back situation after losing the previous game by 21 points. Boston

Denver suffered a misleading 109-107 loss in Game 4 on Monday night as the Nuggets held a 14-point lead and never trailed by more than four points in the entire game. The game landed right on the pointspread (+2), although some people might have found +2½ right before game time. The Nuggets are now 8-0-1 ATS in the postseason and they should close out this game tonight on their strong home court where they stand a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in the postseason with each win coming by at least l2 points or more (29, 15, 21, 14, and 12 margins).

The Nuggets are now coming off a straight-up loss for only the second time in the playoffs and Denver bounced back strong the first time with a NBA playoff record 58-point win, 121-63, as a 2½-point underdog against New Orleans.

The Nuggets were without center Chris Anderson in Game 4 on Monday as he was suffering from food poisoning and this left a weakness down low. The Mavericks exploited it as Dirk Nowitzki had a series-high 44 points and 13 rebounds. Anderson will be in the lineup tonight and Denver should now hold the edge down low as the Nuggets outscored Dallas in the paint in each of the first three games by a combined 156-98 point margin. The Nuggets also held a 76-43 free throw attempt edge in Games 1 & 2 on this court, including a dominating 36-13 edge in the first game.

Play NUGGETS (-) as a 1 unit play.

The Celtics are a weaker team without Kevin Garnett and despite Sunday

Dallas suffered a heart-breaking loss in Game 3 on Saturday as the Mavericks blew a 105-101 lead with 0:31 remaining and allowed the Nuggets to score the final five points in a controversial 106-105 win. The Mavericks

Atlanta is obviously not going to win this series, but the line has been now been inflated way too high and my power ratings using all games this season favor Cleveland by just 5 points tonight. Teams that face a 0-3 deficit have struggled historically, but home underdogs are actually the one subset that has been profitable with an above .500 ATS record. This is often due to line value, which is extremely available tonight.

The Hawks continue to struggle on the road and now stand 1-8 SU/ATS in road playoff games the past two seasons, however Atlanta has been a strong home team with a solid 6-2 SU/ATS mark during that same span which included a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record against the eventual NBA champion Celtics last year. Overall, the home team is now 14-3 SU/ATS in all Atlanta playoff games the past two seasons.

The Hawks played better than the 97-82 final score indicated on Saturday as Atlanta only trailed by one point at halftime. The Hawks were an 8½-point underdog in that game and that was with leading scorer Joe Johnson listed as doubtful, although he did end up playing. The Hawks were only a 4-point home underdog in the two regular season meetings versus Cleveland on this floor and they won outright 97-92 in one game and only lost 88-87 in the other.

Play HAWKS (+) as a 1 unit play.

The Celtics were embarrassed in Game 3 on Friday night as they lost 117-96 and trailed by as many as 25 points and never held the lead the entire night. It was similar to Game 1 in which Boston trailed by 28 points, before rallying in the fourth quarter to make the final score seem respectable.

However, Boston bounced back strong in Game 2 and won easily 112-94 in a game which they never trailed and led by as many as 26 points. Look for another strong bounce-back effort from the Celtics tonight as quality teams usually respond well after a blowout loss in the playoffs and Boston qualifies in a solid 56-26 ATS situation based on that premise. The Celtics also fit a 37-18 ATS Game 4 bounce back situation.

Play CELTICS (+) as a 1 unit play.

The Hawks continue to struggle on the road and now stand 1-8 SU/ATS in road playoff games the past two seasons, however Atlanta has been a strong home team with a solid 6-1 SU/ATS mark during that same span which includes a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record against the eventual NBA champion Celtics last year. Overall, the home team is now 14-2 SU/ATS in all Atlanta playoff games the past two seasons.

The Hawks might be without their leading scorer, Joe Johnson, who is a game-time decision with an ankle injury, but the line has been more than adjusted as my power ratings favor Cleveland by just 6 points without Johnson in the lineup and the Hawks were only a 4-point home underdog in the two regular season meetings versus Cleveland on this floor. Teams often respond with increased focus when a star player is out and Johnson

The Celtics are a weaker team without Kevin Garnett and Boston is just 5-4 SU (.555) in the playoffs, compared to their fantastic 62-20 SU (.756) record during the regular season. The Celtics biggest drop off has occurred on defense as they miss Garnett

The oddsmakers have been forced to raise the line in this game after Cleveland

The Lakers were a perfect 4-0 straight-up in the four head-to-head meetings during the regular season and this is a bad sign for the Rockets as teams that were swept in the regular season (3+ games) are 0-25 all-time in a NBA playoff series.

Despite this regular season dominance, the Lakers came out flat in Game 1 and lost outright 100-92 as an 8½-point home favorite. Los Angeles appeared to be flat after their extended 7-day layoff, but they should bounce back with a better effort tonight and they now fit a solid 60% ATS playoff situation which plays on quality teams coming off a SU loss in their previous game.

Los Angeles has a strong home court where they stand 39-6 SU this season with an average win by +10 points per game and outshooting their opponents 47.7% to 43.0% from the field. Houston is only 22-23 SU on the road, compared to 36-8 SU at home, and the Rockets were dominated in their two trips to Los Angeles in the regular season, losing 111-82 and 93-81 in each game.

Yao Ming had a huge game for Houston on Monday night, scoring 28 points with 10 rebounds, but he injured his knee late in the game and might not be fully healthy tonight. Meanwhile, Kobe Bryant was playing with a sore throat and should be better this evening.

Play LAKERS (-) as a 1 unit play.

The Cavaliers are easily the best team in the Eastern Conference with a 70-16 SU (.814) SU record which is currently 20½ games better than Atlanta

The Lakers were a perfect 4-0 straight-up in the four head-to-head meetings during the regular season and this is a bad sign for the Rockets as teams that were swept in the regular season (3+ games) are 0-25 all-time in a NBA playoff series.

Class-A teams and #1 seeds historically perform well in Game 1 of a playoff series and Los Angeles qualifies in a solid 45-16 ATS situation based on this premise. The Lakers were in the same situation in Game 1 against Utah in the previous round and won that game easily 113-100 in which they held a 22-point lead.

Los Angeles has a strong home court where they stand 39-5 SU this season with an average win by +10.2 points per game and outshooting their opponents 47.8% to 42.9% from the field. Houston is only 21-23 SU on the road, compared to 36-8 SU at home, and the Rockets were dominated in their two trips to Los Angeles this season, losing 111-82 and 93-81 in each game.

The Rockets have relied more on Yao Ming for scoring since Tracy McGrady was lost for the season and the Lakers matchup well down low as they have a pair of 7

The Nuggets dominated New Orleans in Round 1 and Denver won their three home games by 29, 15, and 21-point margins. Denver continues to have one of the strongest home court edges in the league due to the thin air and altitude. The Nuggets have also played much better at home this season with a 36-8 SU record, compared to just 22-21 SU on the road. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have been a much weaker road team this season with a 20-24 SU record, compared to their 34-9 SU mark at home.

Denver was a perfect 4-0 SU versus the Mavericks in the regular season and the close final scores were misleading as Denver dominated the games and held 10, 16, 17, and 11-point leads in each game, while never trailing by more than five points in any game. The Nuggets also outscored the Mavericks by +46 points in the paint in the four games and held a 78-40 free throw attempt edge in their two home games.

Denver is currently the second best team in the conference (after the Lakers) and Class-A home teams have historically performed well in Game 1 and the Nuggets fit an excellent 44-16 ATS situation based on that premise.

Play NUGGETS (-) as a 1 unit play.

Home teams are 80% straight-up all-time in Game 7 in the NBA playoffs and Atlanta has been a much stronger team at home this season with a 33-11 SU record, compared to just 17-27 SU on the road. Meanwhile, Miami has been a much weaker team on the road with a 16-28 SU mark, compared to their solid 30-14 SU record at home. We also get line value as my power ratings favor Atlanta by 7 points today.

The Hawks qualify in a solid 57-31 ATS situation which plays on teams coming off a blowout loss and Atlanta also fits a 64-38 ATS home favorite playoff situation. Atlanta was in a letdown spot on Friday in Game 6 as the Hawks were coming off easy back-to-back wins by 10 and 15-point margins in which Atlanta held dominating 21 and 23 point leads. The Hawks also dominated Miami in Game 1 with an easy 90-64 home win, but Atlanta then suffered a letdown in Game 2 and lost outright by 15 points. Miami was in an excellent bounce-back situation in Game 2 and the Heat also shot a ridiculous 15-for-26 (58%) from three-point range, including a remarkable 12-for-19 (63%) by Dwyane Wade and Daequan Cook combined.

Miami repeated their above average shooting again in Game 3 as they hit 12-for-23 (52%) from three-point range and blew out the Hawks 107-78. Three-point shooting is largely a random variable and can often lead to misleading results. Atlanta has been the more consistent team down low and they have only been outscored in the paint in one of the six playoff games.

Play HAWKS (-) as a 1 unit play.

Home teams historically win Game 7, but the oddsmakers usually over-inflate the line because of this fact and there is once again value with the Bulls tonight at an inflated underdog price. Boston is a much weaker team without Kevin Garnett, while Chicago is a much better team since they traded for John Salmons and Brad Miller from Sacramento in late February.

Salmons averages more than 36 minutes per game and finished the regular season ranked second in scoring (17.6 ppg), while Brad Miller averages more than 27 minutes per game and is fifth on the team in scoring (11.8 ppg). The Bulls were just 4-7 SU in their first eleven games with the new lineup, but have since gone 15-7 SU in their past 22 games. The arrival of the new players helped offset the loss of forward Loul Deng (13.8 ppg) who was injured on February 28th and is now out for the rest of the season.

While the Bulls are improving, the Celtics have become weaker without future Hall of Fame forward Kevin Garnett in the lineup. Boston is a respectable 21-10 SU in all games without Garnett this season, compared to 44-13 SU with him in the lineup, but Boston only wins by an average of +3.5 points per game without the future Hall of Fame member, compared to a +9.1 point average margin of victory with Garnett. The difference is on defense as Boston has permitted only 91 points per game with KG, compared to more than 101 ppg without him.

My power ratings using just games with the current lineups favors Boston by only 4 points tonight and Chicago is already a perfect 3-0 ATS in the three playoff games in Boston with a straight-up win and a pair of close losses by only 3 and 2 points apiece. This has been an extremely close and competitive series with four of the six games going into overtime and only one of the six games being decided by more than 3 points.

The Bulls pulled the upset in Game 1 as an 8½-point underdog and they covered from start to finish as they never trailed by more than five points the entire day. The Bulls also covered in a narrow 118-115 loss in Game 2, but they came out flat in Game 3 and were embarrassed at home in a 21-point loss. Chicago has since bounced-back to win two of the past three games with their only loss coming in overtime in Game 5 in which Chicago blew an 11-point lead. The Bulls also blew a 13-point lead in Game 6 on Thursday.

Overall, these are two equal teams with the current lineups and the line value continues to favor Chicago. Boston has only outshot the Bulls 44.9% to 44.8% from the field in this series and Boston has actually been outplayed down low as Chicago holds a 173-162 free throw attempt edge. The Celtics have relied on their outside shot and despite hitting a fantastic 41% from three-point range; they have still only won easily in one of the six games.

Play BULLS (+) as a 1 unit play.

This has been a very low-scoring series with an average score of just 174½ points in the eight games when the teams played their starters (excludes the April 14th meeting) and overall five of the eight games have totaled 174 or less.

The Under was 7-1 in the first eight games this season, but Game 5 on Wednesday night produced a rare Over with a final score of 106-91. The final was misleading as the pace of play was still very slow and my re-scoring pace model totaled just 171 points. Both teams shot well above their expected percentages from the field as Miami was 31-for-65 (48% FG), while Atlanta was 34-for-70 (49% FG). Look for both defenses to have more focused efforts today.

The most recent game in Miami (Game 4) was especially low-scoring as the teams combined for a playoff low 152 total points. There was nothing misleading about the final score as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 167 with my re-scoring percentage model totaling only 166 points.

Miami

The first two games in this series both went Over the total, but the past three games have been much lower scoring with a perfect 3-0 Under run and final scores of just 169, 177, and 165 total points.

The high-scoring result in the first two games was misleading as Game 1 went Over the total because the Rockets turned the game into a rout, but the pace of play was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 178½ points. Both teams shot well above their normal percentages in Game 2, however the pace of play was once again slow with my re-scoring model totaling just 183 points.

The pace has been even slower as the series has progressed with Games 3-5 totaling just 174, 181½, and 176 based on my re-scoring pace model with my re-scoring percentage model totaling just 175, 181, and 168 total points.

The three regular season meetings all went Over the total, but it was also misleading. The first game went Over only because of overtime and totaled just 180 total points at the end of regulation with my mathematical re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling just 175 and 175½. The final regular season meeting on April 5th totaled 190 on the scoreboard, but the pace of the game was slow as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 177.

These are two of the best defensive teams in the league and both prefer to play a slow-down, half-court style. The Rockets have been even stronger defensively at home this season, where they permit just 91 points per game, compared to allowing 98 ppg on the road, and the Blazers have been weaker offensively on the road where they average just 95 points per game, compared to 103 ppg at home.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

New Orleans almost blew an 11-point lead in Game 3 on Saturday, but held on for a narrow 95-93 home win. The Hornets then came out extremely flat in Game 4 on Monday night and they were embarrassed in a 121-63 home loss which ties the biggest loss in NBA playoff history.

Denver is obviously the better team in this series, but the oddsmakers and public have drastically overreacted to Monday

Game 3 easily went Under the total by 36 points with a final score of just 88-67, but Game 4 barely went Over by a single point and totaled 189.

Game 1 totaled 202 points, however both teams shot well above their normal percentages from the field as the Mavericks shot 54% FG and San Antonio hit 47% FG, including a ridiculous 11-for-14 (79%) from three-point range. The pace of play was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 180½ points and my re-scoring percentage model tallying just 181 points.

A similar situation occurred in Game 2 as the final score totaled 189 points, but San Antonio once again shot well above their expected percentage (53% FG) and both teams were a combined 85% from the free throw line. My re-scoring percentage model totaled just 184 points which is the accurate score had each team shot their normal percentages, and the pace was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 185 points.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The Magic have obviously underperformed in this series, going 0-4 ATS so far, but this has been largely due to an extreme discrepancy from the three-point line. Orlando has been an excellent 3-point shooting team this season as they average 37.8% (versus opponents that allow just 36.7%), but they have hit just 25-of-81 (30.9%) in the playoffs. This is unlikely to continue, especially since the Sixers have only a slightly above average perimeter defense that has allowed 36.4% this season (versus opponents that average 36.9%).

Meanwhile, Philadelphia has been red-hot from beyond the arc, hitting 24-of-57 (42.1%) from three-point range which is highly unlikely to continue since Philadelphia has been one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league this season, averaging just 32.3% (versus opponents that allow 36.6%).

Orlando blew 18-point leads in both home games this season and also had an 11-point lead in Game 4 on Sunday. Philadelphia

The Under is 3-1 in this series, yet the oddsmakers have only lowered the total two points from Game 1. The first game went Over in a very misleading 100-98 final as Orlando blew an 18-point lead and allowed Philadelphia to shoot a ridiculous 58% from beyond the arc. The pace of play was slow and my re-scoring pace model totaled just 180 points and my re-scoring percentage model totaled 181½.

Game 2 totaled just 183 points with my re-scoring models totaling 187½ and 184½. Game 3 totaled 190 points, but the pace was slow with my re-scoring models totaling 181½ and 178. Game 4 was extremely low-scoring with just 165 total points and it was legitimate as my re-scoring models totaled 170½ and 171½.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The four playoff games have averaged just 204.3 points per game with a median score of only 207.5 ppg. My re-scoring pace model has totaled 209, 205, 199, and 197 in the four games for an average score of just 202.5 points per game, while my re-scoring percentage model has totaled only 210.5, 198.5, 204, and 200.5 in each game for an average score of just 203.4 ppg.

The Lakers are known for their strong offense, but Los Angeles is also one of the top defensive teams in the league and they have been strong in the past two games, holding a solid Utah offense to just 88 and 94 points on their strong home court.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The Hawks dominated Miami in Game 1 with an easy 90-64 home win, but Atlanta then suffered a letdown in Game 2 and lost outright by 15 points. Miami was in an excellent bounce-back situation in that Game 2 as teams coming off blowout losses in the playoffs usually respond with a solid effort. The Heat also shot a ridiculous 15-for-26 (58%) from three-point range, including a remarkable 12-for-19 (63%) by Dwyane Wade and Daequan Cook combined.

Miami repeated their above average shooting again in Game 3 as they hit 12-for-23 (52%) from three-point range and blew out the Hawks 107-78. It is unlikely that Miami can continue to shoot above 50% from beyond the arc as the Hawks have an above average three-point defense that allows just 35.7% this season (versus opponents that average 36.8%), while Miami has been a below average shooting squad from beyond the arc this season, averaging just 36.0% (versus opponents that allow 36.5% overall).

Atlanta is the better team in this series and they should bounce-back after two straight losses tonight. The Hawks fit a solid 37-13 ATS Game 4 situation and also qualify in a 56-30 ATS situation which plays on teams coming off a 20+ point blowout loss. The Hawks thoroughly outplayed the Heat in 3 of the first 4 meetings this season, excluding the April 14th game in which both squads rested their starters. Atlanta held 20, 14, and 27-point leads in those three wins.

Play HAWKS (+) as a 1½ unit play.

The first two games in this series both went Over the total, but things returned to normal in Game 3 with a low-scoring 86-83 Houston win. There was nothing misleading about the score as the pace was slow with my re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling just 174 and 175 points.

The high-scoring result in the first two games was misleading as Game 1 went Over the total because the Rockets turned the game into a rout, but the pace of play was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 178½ points. Both teams shot well above their normal percentages in Game 2, however the pace of play was once again slow with my re-scoring model totaling just 183 points.

Playoff games have a tendency to be lower scoring and that should be the case tonight as these are still two of the best defensive teams in the league. Houston allows just 94.3 points per game this season (versus opponents that average 100.1 ppg), while Portland also permits just 94.3 points per game (versus opponents that average 100.0 ppg). The Rockets have been even stronger defensively at home this season, where they permit just 90.9 points per game, compared to allowing 97.6 ppg on the road, and the Blazers have been weaker offensively on the road where they average just 94.8 points per game, compared to 103.3 ppg at home.

The three regular season meetings have also helped to create line value as the 3-0 Over mark was misleading. The first meeting went Over only because of overtime and totaled just 180 total points at the end of regulation with my mathematical re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling just 175 and 175½. The final meeting on April 5th was also misleading as the game totaled 190 on the scoreboard, but the pace of the game was slow as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 177.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The Magic have underperformed so far in this playoff series and they now face a 2-1 deficit. Orlando has blown 18-point leads in two different games and they are the superior team in this series. They should bounce-back with a solid effort tonight as they fit an excellent 65-32 ATS playoff situation which plays on quality teams coming off a SU loss. Orlando is also 41-17 ATS in all games after a SU loss the past two seasons.

The Magic remain the best pointspread team in the league during the past two seasons under head coach Stan Van Gundy with a fantastic 106-69 ATS record in all games, including 75-53 ATS as a favorite. Van Gundy has been particularly strong on the road with a 56-32 ATS record as the head coach of Orlando, including 27-15 ATS away from home this season.

Play MAGIC (-) as a 1 unit play.

Historically, teams down 0-3 in a best-of-seven playoff series get swept, however the oddsmakers have vastly inflated this line based on that situation and we now get line value with the Pistons. My power ratings favor Cleveland by just 5½ points in this game, so based on line value, the Pistons have a 62% chance of covering this line.

Teams down 0-3 are just 36% ATS in playoff games, however home underdog in that situation are actually a winning proposition (54% ATS), so the Pistons should put forth a solid effort today. It is also unlikely that Cleveland will cover this inflated line as only 2 of the 51 four-game sweeps in playoff history has winning team won all four games by double-digit margins.

Play PISTONS (+) as a 1 unit play.

The Bulls pulled the upset in Game 1 as an 8½-point underdog and they covered from start to finish as they never trailed by more than five points the entire day. The Bulls also covered in a narrow 118-115 loss in Game 2, but they came out flat in Game 3 and were embarrassed at home on Friday night in a 21-point loss.

Teams usually bounce-back after a blowout loss in the playoffs and the Bulls fit a solid 56-30 ATS situation which plays on teams coming off a 20+ point blowout loss. Chicago became a better team in late February after they acquired John Salmons and Brad Miller from the Kings. Salmons averages more than 36 minutes per game and finished the regular season ranked second in scoring (17.6 ppg), while Brad Miller averages more than 27 minutes per game and is fifth on the team in scoring (11.8 ppg). The Bulls were just 4-7 SU in their first eleven games with the new lineup, but have since gone 13-6 SU in their past nineteen games. The arrival of the new players helped offset the loss of forward Loul Deng (13.8 ppg) who was injured on February 28th and is now out for the rest of the season.

While the Bulls are improving, the Celtics have become weaker without future Hall of Fame forward Kevin Garnett in the lineup. Boston is a respectable 20-8 SU in all games without Garnett this season, compared to 44-13 SU with him in the lineup, but Boston only wins by an average of +4.0 points per game without the future Hall of Fame member, compared to a +9.1 point average margin of victory with Garnett. The difference is on defense as Boston has permitted only 91 points per game with KG, compared to 100 ppg without him.

Play BULLS (-) as a 1 unit play.

The Lakers as they should bounce back after their upset loss in Game 3. We used the Jazz as a Best Bet in that game as Utah qualified in a solid rebound situation after their back-to-back losses at Los Angeles, but Utah was still fortunate to win the game as they trailed by 13 points, including an 8-point deficit entering the fourth quarter, before rallying for a narrow 88-86 win.

Los Angeles is still the best team in the Western Conference and quality teams usually bounce back after a straight-up loss and the Lakers fit a 36-13 ATS Class-A situation. Los Angeles is 11-5 SU in all games versus Utah the past two seasons and the Lakers have the best road record in the NBA which will help negate Utah

The Hawks dominated Miami in Game 1 with an easy 90-64 home win, but Atlanta then suffered a letdown in Game 2 and lost outright by 15 points. Miami was in an excellent bounce-back situation in that Game 2 as teams coming off blowout losses in the playoffs usually respond with a solid effort. The Heat also shot a ridiculous 15-for-26 (58%) from three-point range, including a remarkable 12-for-19 (63%) by Dwyane Wade and Daequan Cook combined. It is unlikely that those results will be repeated tonight, especially since the Hawks have an above average three-point defense that allows just 35.4% this season (versus opponents that average 36.7%), while Miami has been a below average shooting squad from beyond the arc this season, averaging just 35.8% (versus opponents that allow 36.5% overall).

The situation now favors Atlanta to bounce-back as the better team normally wins Game 3 when a series in tied 1-1 and the Hawks fit a solid 52-33 ATS situation based on that premise. Despite their letdown in Game 2, the Hawks thoroughly outplayed the Heat in three of the other four meetings this season, excluding the April 14th game in which both squads rested their starters. Atlanta held 20, 14, and 27-point leads in those other three wins and only trailed by more than 2 points in one of the three games.

Play HAWKS (+) as a 1 unit play.

The first two games in this series have both gone Over the total, but things normally reverse in Game 3 and today

The first two games in this series have both gone Over the total, but things normally reverse in Game 3 and tonight

The Magic struggled down the stretch of the regular season, but it was mainly due to the fact that they clinched their division title early and were locked into the #3 seed. Orlando also rested numerous starters and other key players during the final week. Orlando started slowly in Game 1 last Sunday, but then exploded to an 18-point lead in the second-half, before completely collapsing in the fourth quarter and losing the game.

Orlando bounced back with a win in Game 2 on Wednesday, but they once again allowed a backdoor cover as Orlando had another 18 point lead before winning by just nine points. A backdoor cover is less likely by Philadelphia tonight as the line is now much lower and the Magic are in basically a straight-up win situation. Orlando is well aware that they must win a road game to win this series and the Magic qualify in a solid 52-32 ATS situation which plays on the better team when a series in tied 1-1.

The Magic remain the best pointspread team in the league during the past two seasons under head coach Stan Van Gundy with a fantastic 106-68 ATS record in all games, including 75-52 ATS as a favorite. Van Gundy has been particularly strong on the road with a 56-31 ATS record as the head coach of Orlando, including 27-14 ATS away from home this season.

Play MAGIC (-) as a 1 unit play.

The Jazz lost both games in Los Angeles as expected, but they should perform better on their strong home court tonight. Over the past decade, the Jazz have exhibited the most extreme home/road dichotomy in the league as opponents often struggle in the thin air and altitude of Salt Lake City. Utah is 33-8 SU at home this season where they average 105.9 points per game and shoot 47.3% from the field. The Jazz also fit a solid 64-36 ATS bounce-back situation tonight which plays on quality teams that enter off exactly two playoffs losses in a row.

This strong home court edge was evident earlier this season when the Lakers lost outright in their only trip to Utah, 113-109, on February 11th. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in all five meetings this season and home court was also strong in last year

The first two games of this series have both gone Over the total, however the pace of play has not been that fast and the recent results have now created solid line value with the Under tonight as the oddsmakers have inflated this O/U line nearly three points higher than Game 1. This game also fits a solid 60% Game 3 Under situation.

Game 1 totaled 202 points, however both teams shot well above their normal percentages from the field as the Mavericks shot 54% FG and San Antonio hit 47% FG, including a ridiculous 11-for-14 (79%) from three-point range. The pace of play was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 180½ points and my re-scoring percentage model tallying just 181 points.

A similar situation occurred in Game 2 as the final score totaled 189 points, but San Antonio once again shot well above their expected percentage (53% FG) and both teams were a combined 85% from the free throw line. My re-scoring percentage model totaled just 184 points which is the accurate score had each team shot their normal percentages, and the pace was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 185 points.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

San Antonio lost Game 1 outright as a 4-point home favorite, but they did bounce back with a solid effort in Game 2; however the situation now favors the Mavericks as they head back to Dallas and their strong home court where they stand 32-9 SU this season and have averaged 106.2 points per game and shot 47.9% from the field.

Despite the lower seed, these are two equal teams, especially with Josh Howard healthy for Dallas and Manu Ginobili out of the lineup for the Spurs. Before Monday

This is not your typical #2 versus #7 playoff matchup as the Nuggets were just 5 games ahead of the Hornets during the 82-game regular season and split the four head-to-head meetings (2-2 SU/ATS). Denver was in a solid situation in Game 1 as Class-A home favorites usually perform well, but the edge goes to quality underdogs in Game 2 and the Hornets fit a solid 36-14 ATS situation based on that premise.

New Orleans also fits a strong 54-28 ATS situation after their embarrassing 29-point blowout loss on Sunday. Denver

One of the best plays in the NBA playoffs over the past two decades has been playing a team coming off an embarrassing loss as that team usually makes corrections and refocuses, while their opponent often comes in overconfident. Another reason why the situation works is because of line value as the oddsmakers are less likely to adjust the pointspread, compared to the normal 1-2 point deduction due to the

Utah is much better than your normal #8 seed as the Jazz were still 48-34 SU in the regular season, despite facing numerous injuries. Utah was in a difficult spot in Game 1 as Class-A home teams such as Los Angeles historically dominate the first game and the Lakers qualified in a strong 43-16 ATS situation based on that premise. The situation usually reverses in Game 2, especially if the underdog was blown out, and the Jazz now fit a solid 55-32 ATS bounce-back situation. Utah also fits a 63% situation which plays on quality teams off a SU loss.

The Lakers have been the best team in the conference this season, but they have shown the tendency to letdown as a big home favorite. The Lakers might also struggle to focus for this game after now beating the Jazz twice at home within the past week.

Play JAZZ (+) as a 1 unit play.

Game 1 went Over the total because the Rockets turned the game into a rout, but the pace of play was still slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 178½ points. Playoff games have a tendency to be lower scoring and that should be the case tonight as these are still two of the best defensive teams in the league. Houston allowed just 94.4 points per game in the regular season (versus opponents that average 100.2 ppg), while Portland permitted just 94.1 points per game (versus opponents that average 100.1 ppg).

The three regular meetings have also helped to create line value as the 3-0 Over mark was misleading. The first meeting went Over only because of overtime and totaled just 180 total points at the end of regulation with my mathematical re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling just 175 and 175½. The final meeting on April 5th was also misleading as the game totaled 190 on the scoreboard, but the pace of the game was slow as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 177.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

Detroit was in a difficult spot in Game 1 as Class-A home teams such as Cleveland historically dominate the first game and they qualified in a strong 42-16 ATS situation based on that premise. The situation usually reverses in Game 2, especially if the underdog was blown out, and the Pistons now fit a solid 55-32 ATS bounce-back situation.

Detroit is still a veteran team that has made the conference finals for six straight seasons and they should be able to keep the game close tonight. The posted Over/Under is just 177½ which indicates a low-scoring game which also favors the double-digit underdog, plus the Pistons are 13-4 ATS the last six seasons as a road underdog of 7 points or more, including 7-3 ATS this season.

Play PISTONS (+) as a 1 unit play.

San Antonio lost Game 1 outright as a 4-point home favorite and now the line has been inflated two points higher as the oddsmaker factor in the perceived

The Nuggets usually play an uptempo style, but playoff games have a tendency to be lower scoring as the pace usually slows down and teams focus more on defense. This has been extremely evident the past four seasons as the Nuggets are now an incredible 17-2 Under in all playoff games.

The Hornets prefer a slow-down, half-court style and they will look to force the tempo tonight. The Over/Under was 2-2 in the four regular season meetings, but the pace of play in those games was slow with my re-scoring pace model totaling just 189½, 185, 191½, and 191 in the four games for an average score of only 189 points per game. The teams also shot higher than their expected percentages in the regular season meetings as my re-scoring percentage model totaled just 187½, 193, 176, and 189 points for an average of just 186½ per game. Tonight

Check back for an additional nighttime NBA report after 3 pm ET.

The Lakers are easily the best team in the Western Conference and they have been particularly strong at home this season with a 36-5 SU record. The Lakers average home win margin is only +10.1 points per game, but this is because they often let up in the second half against inferior teams. This is less likely to occur today as the Lakers will want to send a message in Game 1 of this potential seven-game series. Class-A home favorites have also been a strong play historically in the NBA playoffs in Game 1 and the Lakers fit a solid 43-16 ATS situation based on that premise which is the same situation that produced an easy 18-point winner with Cleveland on Saturday.

Los Angeles just played the Jazz on Tuesday and won by 13 points, even though the game had no meaning to the Lakers as they had already clinched the #1 seed in the West and could not catch Cleveland for the overall home court edge. The Lakers also won by 13 points in the other home game on January 2nd in which they never trailed and actually led by as many as 20 points in the game.

Los Angeles did lose the one road game at Utah, but it was a difficult scheduling situation as the Lakers were traveling without rest and had to play in the thin air and altitude. Utah shot well above their normal percentage from the field as they hit 58.6% FG, including 66% from two-point range which was largely due to the Lakers tired defense. Utah is also a much stronger team at home as they were 33-8 SU at home, compared to just 15-26 SU on the road. Utah is a weaker offensive team on the road where they average just 46% FG, compared to 49% FG at home.

The Lakers won this playoff series last year which included double-digit SU home wins in both Games 1 & 2. Los Angeles is now a stronger team with Andrew Bynum back in the lineup, while the Jazz are a weaker team without Mehmet Okur who is doubtful today due to a hamstring injury. Okur is second on the team in scoring (17.0 ppg) and third in both rebounding (7.7 rpg) and blocks (53).

Play LAKERS (-) as a 1 unit play.

Playoff games have a tendency to be lower scoring and that will be the case tonight as these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. Houston has allowed just 94.4 points per game this season (versus opponents that average 100.2 ppg), while Portland has permitted just 94.1 points per game (versus opponents that average 100.1 ppg). Below offensive units score below the league average, so the defenses hold the edges tonight.

Both teams also prefer a slow-down, half-court style and this game qualifies in a solid 38-16 Game 1 situation which occurs when two Class-A teams meet in the playoffs. The first game is usually lower scoring as both teams start a bit more conservative and focus on defense. The three regular meetings have also helped to create line value as the 3-0 Over mark was misleading. The first meeting went Over only because of overtime and totaled just 180 total points at the end of regulation with my mathematical re-scoring pace and percentage models totaling just 175 and 175½. The most recent meeting on April 5th was also misleading as the game totaled 190 on the scoreboard, but the pace of the game was slow as my re-scoring pace model totaled just 177.

Both teams enter the playoffs in excellent current form on defense and they have played low-scoring games recently versus other playoff teams. The Rockets finished the regular season with games versus New Orleans and Dallas that totaled just 152 and 179 points, while Portland held the Nuggets to just 76 points in their regular season finale and the game totaled just 180 points.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The Cavaliers (66-16 SU) have the best record in the entire league, while Detroit (39-43 SU) is the worst team in the playoffs and the only squad with a losing record this season. Class-A home favorites have historically been a strong play in Game 1 against inferior opponents and the Cavaliers fit a solid 42-16 ATS situation based on that premise.

The Cavaliers have been exceptionally strong at home this season with a 39-1 SU record before they rested their starters in the season finale versus Philadelphia. Cleveland is 27-14 ATS at home and they have won their home games by an average margin of +14.3 points game and they

Both teams can still improve their playoff positioning as Denver is trying to lock up the #2 seed, while Portland is trying to clinch home court advantage in the first round, so both will have defensive focus tonight. This game also fits a solid 40-19 Under situation which predicts low scoring games when both clubs are coming off easy blowout wins in their previous game. All 3 head-to-head meetings have totaled 196 or less this season with an average score of just 191½ per game with my re-scoring pace model and percentage models averaging just 190½ points per game.

Portland prefers a half-court style and they should be able to dictate their preferred tempo at home tonight where they stand a fantastic 33-7 SU, compared to just 20-21 SU on the road. Portland has been playing excellent defense this month as the Blazers have allowed just 93, 83, 98, 72, and 83 points in their past five games which is an average of just 85.8 points per game allowed.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The Lakers have clinched the #1 seed in the Western Conference playoffs and they have nothing to play for tonight in their regular season finale as the Cavaliers clinched home court edge in the NBA Finals last night. The Lakers are expected to play their starters, but it is unlikely that head coach Phil Jackson will push the minutes on key players such as Kobe Bryant.

Los Angeles does have a revenge motive after losing at Utah on February 11th and the Lakers will likely face the Jazz in the first round of the playoff, so look for Los Angeles to send a strong defensive message tonight. The previous meeting totaled 222 points, but Utah shot well above their normal percentage from the field as they hit 58.6% FG, including 66% from two-point range. The Lakers struggled as they were playing without rest in the thin air and altitude.

Utah will be weaker offensively tonight as they are now playing without rest and they average just 46% FG on the road this season (compared to 49% FG at home). The Jazz have struggled away from home with a 15-25 SU mark (compared to 33-8 SU at home) and the Jazz have not played well in the second of back-to-back nights this season.

Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.

The Warriors 118-108 win at Utah on Saturday night is less impressive considering the Jazz are on an ice cold 1-6 SU run in their past seven games and just 1-9 ATS in their past ten overall. Golden State remains decimated by injuries with Jamal Crawford downgraded to doubtful tonight and Stephen Jackson, Monta Ellis, and Corey Maggette already out for the rest of the season.

The Warriors received a strong effort from their youngsters on Saturday, but that should serve as a wakeup call for the veteran Spurs tonight and Golden State now fits a negative 48-94 ATS home letdown situation after their SU road underdog win at Utah.

The Spurs are still fighting for playoff positioning and the division title, plus they expect to get Tim Duncan back in the lineup tonight after he sat out last night in Sacramento for rest. San Antonio lackluster first-half effort versus the Kings last night (allowed 61 points) should lead to better focus tonight and the Spurs will build on the momentum from their strong second-half defensive performance which held the Kings to just 31 points.

Play SPURS (-) as a 1 unit play.

On paper this game is a complete mismatch, however it is hard to imagine the Spurs will be fully focused. San Antonio is coming off a big home win versus Utah on Friday and the Spurs have another road game on deck tomorrow night. San Antonio is a veteran team that is also looking to rest key players whenever possible.

Sacramento was covering for most of the game as an 11-point home underdog versus Houston on Thursday night before collapsing in the fourth quarter. The Kings carried that letdown into Friday night

This is a quick home-home revenge game for the Hornets as they just lost at Dallas on Friday night. The Mavericks are coming off three straight home wins versus the Suns, Jazz, and Hornets. Dallas is now due for a letdown and they fit a negative 38-66 ATS situation which plays against road teams off a 3+ SU/ATS run.

The Mavericks have been strong at home this season with a 30-9 SU record, but Dallas is just 18-22 SU on the road which includes a 104-88 loss at New Orleans on March 5th. Despite losing on Friday, the Hornets have dominated the Mavericks the past two seasons with a 4-1 SU record in the past five head-to-head meetings with wins by 16, 7, 5, and 13 point margins.

Play HORNETS (-) as a 1 unit play.