Orlando is flying well under the radar this season.  The Magic come into this game with a 12-9 record, and a sterling 14-6-1 mark against the spread.  Orlando plays at a slow pace, and they combine that slow tempo with the 5th best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when they are playing an offensive team that likes to play at a fast pace.  Orlando is 10-3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, and they are 6-1 SU over their last seven games.  Orlando’s defense is in excellent current form; they’ve held their last five opponents to just 91 points per game on 40% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land.

Phoenix is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s home game against Orlando.  The Suns are returning home off a 6-game road trip that had them on the East Coast and in the Midwest over a 9-day span.  They’ve had just one day off since returning home, so it’s unlikely they will come with their best effort, especially since they rallied from a 16-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Bulls on Monday night.  The Suns are 0-7 SU when scoring less than 100 points this season; Orlando has given up more than 100 points in just six games this season, and three of those games went to overtime.  Orlando is a strong defensive underdog, so we’ll take the points with the Magic on Wednesday night.

10* Play MAGIC (+).

Utah plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, and they combine that slow tempo with the 12th best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when they are playing a team that likes to play at a crisp offensive pace.  Utah’s defense is holding opponents to just 95.9 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land.  The Jazz are also 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season, and they’ve won their last three meetings against the Kings while holding them to just 90, 91, and 95 points. 

Sacramento comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Kings have lost three consecutive games, and five of their last six games overall.  Sacramento is playing their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  The Kings are 6-7 SU when scoring 100 points or more this season, but just 1-8 SU when failing to eclipse the century mark.  The combination of Utah’s slow pace and good defense will prevent the Kings from scoring 100 points in this game, so we’ll take the points with Utah on Tuesday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

Stony Brook returned all five starters this season from last year’s 23-win team.  The Seawolves also landed JUCO transfer Ahmad Walker who is averaging 10.5 points per game this season.  Stony Brook’s offense is explosive; they are averaging 76.2 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field.  Stony Brook is 4-2 on the season with their losses coming by a combined 8 points, including an overtime loss at Vanderbilt.  The Seawolves are a deep team that uses a 10-man rotation with every guy averaging at least 13 minutes per game.  Stony Brook is also an excellent rebounding team that owns a +18 margin per game on the glass.  This is a rare national TV game against a name team for Stony Brook, so we expect a peak performance by the Seawolves.

Notre Dame is 5-2 on the season, and the Irish have alternated wins and losses over their last five games.  They come off a win in their last game, so if their recent pattern holds up, the Irish will be looking at a defeat in this game.  Notre Dame’s wins this season have come against St. Francis (PA), Wisconsin-Milwaukee, UMass-Lowell, Iowa, and Illinois.  The Irish lost to Monmouth and Alabama.  Notre Dame is taking a step-up in class against Stony Brook in this game as the Seawolves are rated higher in efficiency metrics than the opponents the Irish have played so far this season.  In a game that will be close throughout, we’ll take Stony Brook plus the points on Tuesday night.

9* Play STONY BROOK (+).

Boston is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for this game in New Orleans on Monday night.  The Celtics will conclude their 5-game road trip that had them go from Florida to California to Texas to Louisiana in the span of nine days.  Boston had to play in multiple time zones as well, and the tough travel and changing climates have taken their toll.  The Celtics are already without Marcus Smart, and reports indicate Avery Bradley missed shootaround this morning because of an illness; good chance he misses this game.  David Lee and R.J. Hunter will also miss this game with injuries, so the Celtics will be quite thin for this game.  Boston lost 108-105 in San Antonio in their recent game, and they used up a lot of energy while rallying from 15 points down in the fourth quarter.  The Celtics are an injured and fatigued team right now, and they will be facing an opponent that is healthy, fresh and ready for this game.     

New Orleans has had a terrible season so far; the Pelicans come into this game with a 5-15 record.  However, the team has suffered thru numerous injuries which caused their rotation to be out of whack.  But the Pelicans are now back to full strength, and we’ve seen them play much better basketball in recent games.  New Orleans comes in off a win over Cleveland on Friday night in which they scored 114 points on 49.4% (42-85) shooting from the field.  Five players scored 13 points or more in that game.  The Pelicans have had two full days to get ready for this game, and in an odd scheduling quirk, they won’t play another game until Friday night.  So tonight’s game is quite important for New Orleans, and they are catching the Celtics at the perfect time.  We’ll back New Orleans in this game on Monday night.

9* Play PELICANS (+).

Indiana has played good basketball this season as they come into this game with a 12-6 record.  However, the Pacers are not in the best of spots for this game in Utah.  Indiana is paying their fourth consecutive road game, and this will be their eighth road game in their last twelve games overall.  They will also be playing their third game in four nights, and that’s not a good thing when playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  The Pacers are 9-2 SU when scoring 100 points or more this season, but just 3-4 SU when failing to eclipse the century mark.  One of those losses came at home earlier this season when the Jazz beat them 97-76. 

Utah plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, and they combine that slow tempo with the 10th best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when they are playing a team that likes to play at a crisp offensive pace.  Utah’s defense is holding opponents to just 94.5 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Jazz are also 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season, including a spread cover as home underdogs against the Warriors on Monday night.  We’ll take the points with Utah in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play JAZZ (+).

Cleveland is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Miami.  The Cavaliers lost 114-108 in overtime last night in New Orleans.  Cleveland trailed by 13 points in that game before making a furious comeback that came up just short in overtime.  Five players played 32 minutes or more with four guys playing 36 minutes or more and two guys playing 42 minutes or more.  LeBron James played a perfect game while scoring 37 points over 44 minutes of action.  Now Cleveland must hit the road, and play on a back-to-back set after a grueling overtime game.  The Cavaliers are not in good current form either as they are just 2-3 over their last five games with their two wins coming by a total of 7 points.

Miami plays at the fourth slowest pace in the NBA, and they combine that slow tempo with the 2nd best defense in terms of efficiency.  Miami’s defense is holding opponents to just 92.6 points per game on 41% shooting from the field and 31.5% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense has been even better over their last five games while holding opponents to just 92 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land.  Miami is catching Cleveland as the perfect time, so we’ll back the strong defensive home team in this game Saturday night.

9* Play HEAT (-).

Golden State is the best team in the NBA as they bring their perfect 20-0 record into Toronto tonight.  The Warriors have been steamrolling their opponents while scoring 100 points or more in every game this season.  However, tonight’s game against the Raptors presents a challenging assignment for Golden State.  The Warriors come into this game after playing fast-paced teams in five of their last six games.  Golden State averaged 120 points per game in those five games while winning all five by 13 points or more.  In their lone game against a slow-paced team, the Warriors only beat the Jazz by 3 points (106-103).  Toronto plays a similar style as Utah, so Golden State will have a hard time winning this game by margin.

Toronto comes into this game off a home loss to the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night.  That was excusable as they made a big comeback to win in Atlanta the night before.  Off the poor effort, and with a full day of rest, we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight.  The Raptors play at a slow pace, and they combine that slow tempo with the 8th best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when playing a team that likes to play as fast as possible.  Toronto’s defense is in excellent current form as they are holding opponents to just 96 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Raptors are 7-1 ATS as underdogs this season, so we’ll take the points in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Milwaukee comes into this game in terrible current form; the Bucks are just 3-9 SU over their last twelve games.  Milwaukee’s defense has been atrocious all season long, especially on the road, and it’s a major reason why they have a losing record.  The Bucks are allowing 104.6 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 40.9% shooting from three-point land away from home.  Milwaukee has lost seven consecutive road games with five of those seven losses coming by 14 points or more.  Milwaukee’s average loss in those games has come by a whopping 19.4 points per game.   

Detroit began the season with a 5-1 record before hitting the skids and losing eight of their next eleven games.  But the Pistons have won their last two games at home after some outstanding offensive performances.  Detroit scored 116 and 127 points in those games while shooting 51.7% (89-172) from the field.  Their scoring ways will continue tonight against a poor Milwaukee defense.  This is also a revenge game for the Pistons after getting embarrassed 109-88 by the Bucks in Milwaukee just eleven days ago.  Detroit is now the team in better current form, and since they are the superior team, we’ll lay the points with the Pistons in this game on Friday night.

10* Play PISTONS (-).

Oklahoma City had their 4-game winning streak snapped in Atlanta on Monday night.  The Thunder trailed by 16 points in that game before making a furious comeback that came up just short.  Over their last five games, Oklahoma City has been able to play their preferred style of up-tempo basketball; the Thunder scored 100 points or more in each game.  However, tonight’s game against Miami presents a challenging assignment for Oklahoma City.  The Thunder will face a much different tempo tonight as the Heat like to play at a slow pace.  Oklahoma City is 11-3 SU this season when scoring 100 points or more.  In games in which they score less than 100 points, the Thunder own an 0-4 record this season.  Miami has held their opponents to less than 100 points in 11 of their 16 games this season.  

Miami plays at the third slowest pace in the NBA, and they combine that slow tempo with the 3rd best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when they are playing a team that likes to play at a fast pace.  Miami’s defense is holding opponents to just 92.5 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense has been even better over their last five games while holding opponents to just 91.2 points per game on 39.4% shooting from the field and 34.2% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take the points with the strong defensive home underdog in this game Thursday night.

10* Play HEAT (+).

Toronto comes into this game off a home loss to the Phoenix Suns on Sunday night.  Off that poor effort, and with two full days of rest, we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight in Atlanta.  The Raptors play at a slow pace, and they combine that slow tempo with the 9th best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when playing a team that likes to play at a crisp offensive pace.  Toronto’s defense is in excellent current form as they are holding opponents to just 91.8 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Raptors are 6-1 ATS as underdogs this season with five of those spread covers coming on the road.

Atlanta has had little consistency this season due to players going in and out of the lineup.  The Hawks have alternated wins and losses over their last eight games; they come in off a 106-100 win as 3-point home underdogs to the Thunder on Monday night.  If their recent pattern holds up, the Hawks will regress and lose tonight’s game.  The Raptors present a challenging assignment for Atlanta.  The Hawks are 9-1 SU when scoring 100 points or more this season, but just 3-7 SU when failing to eclipse the century mark.  Those three wins came by 6, 3, and 2 points which shows how much they’ve struggled against good defensive teams.  We’ll take the points with Toronto in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Tulsa returned all five starters this season, including their top eight players from last year’s 24-win team.  Tulsa’s offense is explosive; they are averaging 77.8 points per game.  “We finally bought into Coach Haith’s system and the ball movement has been very good for us,” James Woodard said.  “We’re getting a lot of assists off each other and moving off the ball, that’s what they’ve been preaching. It’s hard for teams to guard if everybody’s clicking on all cylinders.”  Tulsa comes into this game off a poor home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock in a game they only scored 60 points.  But off that poor performance, we expect a strong bounce back tonight, especially against an Oklahoma State team that is playing shorthanded.

Oklahoma State is 5-1 on the season, but the Cowboys have played nothing in terms of competition.  Their wins have come against Long Beach State twice, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Tennessee-Martin and Towson.  Oklahoma State is taking a monumental step-up in class against Tulsa in this game, and they are doing so without their leading scorer Phil Forte and key reserve Tavarius Shine.  “They’re probably a better basketball team than we are right now, just from the fact that they’re experienced, things like that,” head coach Travis Ford said.  “We understand we have a great challenge in front of us.”  We’ll take Tulsa plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play TULSA (+).

Maryland is a perfect 6-0 on the season, and they are very confident that they will remain undefeated after tonight’s game against North Carolina.  The Terrapins have a terrific point guard in Melo Trimble and a roster loaded with height that makes them a formidable opponent for the Tar Heels.  Head coach Mark Turgeon is expecting his team to play one of their best games of the season because Maryland will finally be able to play their tall lineup for the majority of the game.  “You know, we are built for games like this. Rhode Island was a big team and we matched up well with them (86-63 win). Carolina will allow us to play our big lineup for 40 mins. It’s a good matchup for us.”

North Carolina comes into this game with a 5-1 record with their lone loss coming against Northern Iowa.  The Tar Heels will get point guard Marcus Paige back on the court; he’s been out with a broken right hand.  Paige is set to play, but how effective will he be in his first game with new players surrounding him?  It’s simply going to take some time for Paige to get back into game-speed shape.  North Carolina has also failed to cover the pointspread in four consecutive games despite playing inferior teams.  Maryland is the better team at this point, and this is the Terrapins’ biggest game in a long time.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Maryland plus the points on Tuesday night.

10* Play MARYLAND (+).

Golden State is the best team in the NBA as they bring their perfect 18-0 record into Utah tonight.  The Warriors have been steamrolling their opponents while scoring 100 points or more in every game this season.  However, tonight’s game against the Jazz presents a challenging assignment for Golden State.  The Warriors come into this game off four consecutive games against fast-paced teams.  Golden State averaged 121 points per game while winning all four games by 13 points or more.  However, the Warriors will be facing a totally different opponent tonight, and the change in style and pace will prevent Golden State from winning this game by a double digit margin.    

Utah plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, and they combine that slow tempo with the 7th best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when they are playing a superior team that likes to play as fast as possible.  Utah has the defense to play with Golden State; the Jazz are holding opponents to just 93.2 points per game on 44.1% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land.  The Jazz are also 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season, and all of those games have come on the road.  Utah is also in good form after back-to-back wins, so they are confident coming into this game.  We’ll take the points with Utah in this game on Monday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

Tennessee is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Volunteers are in their first year under former Texas head coach Rick Barnes.  He has very little to work with as Tennessee lost their best player last season to the NBA; Josh Richardson averaged 16 points per game.  The Volunteers come into this game with a 4-1 record, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule thus far.  Their four wins have come against N.C. Asheville, Marshall, Gardner-Webb, and Army.  All four of those teams are terrible.  Tennessee’s lone loss came against a mediocre Georgia Tech team.  Tennessee is taking a major step-up in class in this game against George Washington, and we fully expect the Volunteers to lose by a double digit margin.

George Washington is ready for a breakout season under head coach Mike Lonergan.  The Colonials have won 46 games over the last two seasons, and the team returned four starters this season.  They come into this game with a perfect 5-0 record that includes an impressive 73-68 win over Virginia.  George Washington has one of the biggest lineups in the country, and their ability to stifle opponents with their defense makes them a difficult team to score points on.  The Colonials’ defense is holding teams to just 39.1% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land this season.  George Washington is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Colonials on Friday night.

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (-).

Washington and Boston played earlier this month with the Celtics winning 118-98.  We expect another high-scoring game between the Wizards and Celtics tonight.  Washington is playing at a very quick pace this season, and in fact, the Wizards play at the third quickest tempo in the NBA.  That style of play will only be amplified tonight against a Boston team that also likes to get up and down the court.  Washington is averaging 102.6 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 40% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Wizards are averaging those numbers despite scoring just 87 points in their last game on Wednesday night.  Washington’s defense has been horrendous on the road this season; the Wizards are giving up 104.7 points per game away from home.    

Boston also plays at a quick pace; the Celtics play at the fifth quickest tempo in the NBA.  The Celtics come into this game off a horrible offensive game against Philadelphia on Wednesday night.  Boston scored just 84 points after shooting a miserable 34.1% (31-91) from the field and 31% (9-29) from three-point land.  The Celtics only scored 13 points on 18 trips to the free throw line as well.  Boston is averaging 102.6 points per game at home this season, and since they scored 118 points on Washington’s home court a few weeks ago, we expect a strong bounce back from the Celtics’ offense in this game.  Washington also catches a break as Boston will be without an elite perimeter defender; Marcus Smart is out with injury.  That’s a major factor in this game considering the Wizards have two strong guards in John Wall and Bradley Beal.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Wizards and Celtics on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Memphis is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for this game in Houston on Wednesday night.  The Grizzlies won 110-96 at home over the Dallas Mavericks last night, but all five starters played 29 minutes or more with three guys playing 34 minutes or more.  Despite scoring 110 points, Memphis shot the ball terribly; they hit just 43% (37-86) from the field and 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land.  The Grizzlies scored 29 points on 37 free throw attempts.  The Grizzlies have been playing better basketball recently, but it’s actually been by default because of injuries.  “We’re just trying to hold down the fort until we can get some size back into the lineup,” head coach Dave Joerger said.  “We’re playing different than we have and we haven’t been able to practice. We haven’t practiced in two weeks. It’s just a different kind of deal in what you’re trying to do. But where we are right now, it’s very difficult. We’re trying to manage as best we can.”  Zach Randolph has missed the last two games, and he is listed as questionable tonight.  But regardless if he plays or not, Memphis will be playing on a back-to-back set while their opponent is fresh and ready after having last night off.

Houston has had a terrible season so far; the Rockets come into this game with a 5-9 record.  Their poor start got Kevin McHale fired, and J.B. Bickerstaff has assumed the interim head coaching role.  Houston has made some terrific improvements on the defensive slide of the ball under Bickerstaff.  In eleven games under McHale, the Rockets were allowing 108.5 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field.  Under Bickerstaff, the Rockets are allowing 102.0 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field.  The Rockets just played in Memphis five days ago and they lost 96-84.  But they are ready for the rematch tonight: “We had some really good days of practice,” Dwight Howard said.  “We got some really good work in. We’re looking forward to tonight.”  Houston will also get Patrick Beverley back from injury; he is their best perimeter defender.  The Rockets have had three full days to prepare for this game while the Grizzlies will be playing their fourth game in six nights.  We’ll lay the points with Houston in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play ROCKETS (-).

Boston and Atlanta just played eleven days ago with the Celtics winning 106-93 at home.  That game was played at an ultra-quick pace as the teams combined to take 179 shots from the field, including 53 attempts from three-point land.  The shooting wasn’t all that good either, but the teams still combined to score 199 points.  Boston shot just 40.8% (42-103) from the field and 33.3% (11-33) from three-point land.  The Celtics only scored 11 points from the free-throw line after getting just 12 attempts.  Boston did well in transition as they scored 11 points on the fast-break.  The Celtics also scored a lot of easy baskets with 50 of their 103 total points coming inside the paint.  Boston’s offense comes into this game in terrific current form as they are averaging 106.8 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.   

Atlanta shot the ball terribly from three-point land in that earlier game against Boston.  The Hawks hit just 30% (6-20) from beyond the arc, and they only added 15 points on 20 attempts from the free-throw line.  Atlanta also scored a lot of easy baskets as more than 50% (48 of 93) of their total points came from inside the paint.  The Hawks’ offense has been good at home where they are averaging 102.2 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land.  Atlanta also catches a break as Boston will be without an elite perimeter defender; Marcus Smart is out with injury.  These two teams just scored 199 points without great shooting and limited free-throw attempts.  This game will be played at an extremely fast pace once again, and with normal shooting and additional trips to the line, we expect a high-scoring game between the Celtics and Hawks on Tuesday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Wake Forest pulled off a huge upset last night when they beat Indiana 82-78 as 12.5-point underdogs.  That win was one of the biggest for the Demon Deacons since Danny Manning became head coach.  Wake Forest put everything they had into that game, and they played well above their level.  The Demon Deacons shot 50.7% (35-69) from the field and 42.9% (6-14) from three-point land.  Wake Forest also plays a short rotation, and they had four starters play 30 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 33 minutes or more.  The Demon Deacons only go 7 deep, and one of those two reserves played 24 minutes.  Wake Forest is in a major flat spot, and they will be playing on tired legs against a team that is simply superior to them.           

Vanderbilt steamrolled St. John’s 92-55 last night.  The Commodores shot 53.2% (33-62) from the field and 48% (12-25) from three-point land.  Vanderbilt’s big win allowed head coach Kevin Stallings to rest his starters; all five played 25 minutes or less.  In fact, Vanderbilt had 10 players play double digit minutes, and the majority of the scoring and hot shooting came from the reserves.  The Commodores are well rested for this game, and their starters will be ready for their best effort.  Vanderbilt also has a much better defense than what Wake Forest faced last night, so the Commodores will force the Demon Deacons into a bad offensive output.  Vanderbilt is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night. 

9* Play VANDERBILT (-).

Sacramento added point guard Rajon Rondo, and his presence on the court instantly makes the Kings a much better offensive team, especially since they are running George Karl’s fast-paced offensive system.  The Kings have been able to score points easily this season, but they scored less than 100 points in two of their last three games.  However, the Kings were missing their top two scorers as DeMarcus Cousins was suspended and Rudy Gay had a shoulder injury.  Both players are expected to be back on the court tonight, so the Kings will have their full compliment on offense.  Over their last five games, Sacramento is averaging 104.2 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land.  The Kings’ defense has been terrible all season as they are giving up 106.9 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field.  

Charlotte has a high-scoring offense that has changed their identity this season.  After being a defensive minded team in the first couple of years under head coach Steve Clifford, the Hornets have changed their focus to offense.  Charlotte is heavily reliant on 3-point shooting while playing at a much quicker pace; the Hornets hit 41.5% from three-point land at home.  The Hornets have scored 113 and 116 points in their last two games, and we fully expect them to produce a lot of points once again in this game.  Sacramento and Charlotte also have two of the highest scoring second units in the NBA; the Kings rank 3rd with 41.9 points per game and the Hornets rank 6th with 39.2 points per game scored.  This game will be played at a fast pace, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Kings and Hornets on Monday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Washington is playing at a very quick pace this season, and in fact, the Wizards play at the quickest tempo in the NBA.  That style of play will only be amplified tonight with the expected return of leading scorer Bradley Beal who has missed the last three games.  He is listed as a game-time decision, but even if he doesn’t play, the Wizards will still run up and down the court at a fast tempo.  Washington is averaging 104.3 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  The Wizards have scored 223 points in their last two games, and 324 points in their last three games, so they are in terrific offensive form.  Washington’s defense has been horrendous on the road this season; the Wizards are giving up 108 points per game away from home.      

Detroit added point guard Reggie Jackson, and his presence on the court instantly made the Pistons a much better offensive team.  This is also an important game for Jackson because when he signed a big deal, Washington’s John Wall said he didn’t deserve it.  This game is personal for Jackson, so he will go all out and try and lead the Pistons to as many points as possible.  Detroit’s offense scored 104 points in their last home game, and we expect a high-scoring output here since this will be just their second home game since November 3rd.  This game will be played at an extremely fast pace, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Wizards and Pistons on Saturday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Chicago comes into this game against Golden State in excellent current form.  The Bulls have won four straight games, and five of their last six games overall.  Chicago also had last night off, so they are rested and ready for this game against the Warriors.  The Bulls will not be in awe of the Warriors and their 13-game winning streak either.  Last year, Chicago broke the Warriors 19-game home winning streak; that was just one of Golden State’s two home losses all season.  The Bulls have played to their level of competition this season; they beat Cleveland and Oklahoma City while losing by 25 points to Charlotte and losing by 9 points to Minnesota.  The Bulls will come with their best effort tonight, especially since they have a chance to give the Warriors their first loss of the season.  Chicago has the defense to play with Golden State; the Bulls rank #5 in efficiency while holding opponents to 40.8% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land.    

Golden State is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game.  The Warriors played last night in Los Angeles, and they came back from a 23-point deficit to win 124-117.  Golden State expended a lot of energy to take their first lead of the game with just over 2 minutes left to play.  The Warriors had four starters play 30 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 35 minutes or more.  Golden State shot 52.1% (38-73) from the field, 56.7% (17-30) from three-point land, and 86.1% (31-36) from the free-throw line.  They played a perfect game, but now they’ll play on back-to-back nights with this also being their third game in four nights.  We’ll take the points with Chicago in this game on Friday night.

9* Play BULLS (+).

Los Angeles is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Portland.  The Clippers played their marquee game last night at home against the Golden State Warriors, and they inexplicably blew that game.  Los Angeles went into that game off four days of rest which gave them ample time to prepare for the best team in the NBA.  The Clippers also had Chris Paul on the court after he was listed as doubtful with a groin injury.  Los Angeles played to their max level, and they led by 14 points at the half.  The Clippers still led until just over two minutes to play when the Warriors took their first lead of the game.  The game ended with a 124-117 Los Angeles defeat despite the Clippers shooting 50% (44-88) from the field and 44.8% (13-29) from three-point land.  That loss will be extremely difficult for the Clippers to overcome, especially tonight on a back-to-back set when all five starters played 31 minutes or more last night; three starters played 37 minutes or more.      

Portland returns home off a brutal 4-game road trip in which they crossed multiple time zones while playing those games over a 6-day span.  The Trail Blazers went 0-4 in those games, but the results can be excused.  They were competitive as one loss came by a single point while another loss came by 5 points in overtime.  “Losing is hard,” Mason Plumlee said.  “But I think we’ll grow from it. There’s a lot of positive takeaways. We’re getting better and eventually the wins are going to show that. We’re just not coming up with wins right now, but I think we are improving.”  Portland is simply glad to be back at home, and they are catching the Clippers at the perfect time.  The Trail Blazers’ offense has been good at home where they are averaging 104.2 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land.  Portland is set for a peak performance while Los Angeles will be playing with a hangover, so we’ll take the Trail Blazers plus the points in this game on Friday night.

10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+).

Boise State has been a terrific team over the last three seasons.  The Broncos have won 21 games or more the last three years, and they are set to eclipse their 25 wins of a season ago.  Boise State is an experienced and veteran team that has an efficient offense and a strong, half-court defense.  Head coach Leon Rice and his players have had this game circled since the summer, so they’ll be ready: “It’s a great opportunity to play against a top 10 program that year in and year out is in a hunt for a national title,” Rice said.  “These are the kinds of games that, for a lot of guys, is the reason they come to Boise State.”  Boise State will not be overwhelmed by playing at Arizona after the Broncos had to play in Dayton against the Flyers in the First Four of the NCAA tournament last season.   

Arizona always has a good team; they’ve won 27 games or more in four of the last five seasons.  The Wildcats have won 67 games over the last two seasons, but those wins come at a price.  The Wildcats are continuously reloading new talent after losing players to professional basketball, so they are the most vulnerable early in the season.  Arizona is playing with three transfers in their starting lineup, and it’s simply going to take time for those guys to gel.  In their first two games, the Wildcats own a -3 (25-22) turnover margin which is a sign that the team lacks some chemistry right now.  Head coach Sean Miller knows tonight’s game will be a tough one: “We think they’re one of the best teams in the country,” Miller said. “They have a great coach, a terrific offensive system, and that puts a lot of pressure on our defense. It’s going to be a really, really strong challenge. I think it will be one of the toughest all season.”  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Boise State on Thursday night.

9* Play BOISE STATE (+).

Sacramento is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for this game in Miami on Thursday night.  The Kings played last night in Atlanta, and they rallied back from a 10-point deficit to trail 99-97 with just 31 seconds remaining in the game.  But they ultimately came up short in their comeback while expending a lot of energy in the process.  Sacramento had three starters play 29 minutes or more with four bench players playing 20 minutes or more.  Head coach George Karl also used his ninth different lineup in twelve games this season; there hasn’t been any sense of semblance this season.  DeMarcus Cousins threw two elbows last night, and there is some speculation he may be suspended for this game prior to tip.  Regardless, Sacramento will be playing on a back-to-back set while their opponent is fresh and ready after having last night off.

Miami lost their last home game 103-91 to Minnesota on Tuesday night.  The Heat blew a 7-point lead going into the fourth quarter after they got out-scored 41-22 over the final twelve minutes of the game.  It was just the second time this season that Miami’s defense gave up more than 100 points in a game.  Miami has the #1 defense in the NBA based on efficiency, and off a poor performance, we expect a strong bounce back tonight.  When Miami has held their opponent to less than 100 points, they are 6-2 SU this season with those six wins coming by 10, 20, 12, 20, 1, and 13 points.  Five of those wins would have been good enough to cover tonight’s spread.  Sacramento is a team that plays at the fastest pace in the league, but they’ve struggled mightily when held to less than 100 points.  The Kings are 0-5 SU with their losses coming by 6, 18, 9, 21, and 14 points.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play HEAT (-).

Toronto is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in Utah on Wednesday night.  The Raptors played last night at Golden State, and they took the Warriors to the brink in a 115-110 loss.  Toronto expended a lot of energy in that game as they rallied back from a 16-point half time deficit to take a 98-96 lead with just over five minutes left to play before faltering down the stretch.  Toronto had four starters play 31 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 38 minutes or more.  The Raptors’ best bench player, Cory Joseph, also played over 28 minutes in that game.  Now Toronto has to play on back-to-back nights while doing so in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  This will also be Toronto’s third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.     

Utah is just 5-5 on the year, but the Jazz have played eight of their ten games on the road so far this season.  Utah recently completed a 4-game East coast road trip in which they went just 1-3.  However, they played those games over a six day span while missing a key cog in Rudy Gobert, so the results can be forgiven.  Utah did win their last game, so they come into this game with some momentum.  The Jazz also have a huge scheduling advantage for this game as they’ve had two full days to prepare while the Raptors are a fatigued team as noted above.  Toronto is also going from a fast-paced game which they prefer to the slow, half-court style of Utah.  The Jazz have a terrific defense that is only allowing 91.8 points per game on 42.4% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Utah in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play JAZZ (-).

Wichita State has been a fantastic program over the last few years as they’ve produced some excellent teams.  The Shockers have won 30 games or more in three straight years, and they made the Final Four in 2013.  Wichita State will be a very good team once again this season, but tonight’s game against Tulsa will be a difficult challenge.  The Shockers have a terrific backcourt with Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, but the latter is battling thru injuries.  VanVleet has a strained left hamstring and a sprained ankle; he only played three minutes in their season opener.  VanVleet is expected to give it a go tonight, but his effectiveness may be limited.  Wichita State also has some question marks in the frontcourt, so until they find a consistent post player, they are a bit vulnerable.  The Shockers also have to wait until mid-December for Conner Frankamp, a Kansas transfer, to become eligible.  

Tulsa is ready for a breakout season under head coach Frank Haith after winning 21 games in 2014 and 24 games in 2015.  The Golden Hurricane returns all five starters this season, including their top eight players from last year’s rotation.  Tulsa’s offense is explosive; they scored 98 points in their season opener.  “We finally bought into Coach Haith’s system and the ball movement has been very good for us,” James Woodard said.  “We’re getting a lot of assists off each other and moving off the ball, that’s what they’ve been preaching. It’s hard for teams to guard if everybody’s clicking on all cylinders.”  Tulsa gets this game on their home court; a small gym that only holds 8,300 people.  It’s also a very big game for the Tulsa program: “To play a team of this caliber, one of the best teams in the country on your court, there’s nothing but opportunity,” said coach Haith.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Tulsa on Tuesday night.

9* Play TULSA (+).

Atlanta caught the league off-guard last season when they went 60-22 in the regular season.  The Hawks came into this season as a known commodity, and because of that, their opponents have come focused in their games.  Atlanta comes into tonight’s game with an 8-4 record, but three of those losses have come in their last four games despite playing three of those games on their home court.  Atlanta is also dealing with injuries, and they are having an impact on both ends of the court.  The Hawks will be without Jeff Teague (ankle) and Kent Bazemore (ankle) tonight, so their rotation will be thrown off.  And that’s not a good thing for a team that is in poor current form. 

Brooklyn comes into this game with a terrible 1-9 record, but the Nets have played seven of their ten games on the road.  The Nets are 0-3 on their home court, but two of their losses have come by 7 points or less so they’ve been competitive.  Brooklyn has been playing much better basketball recently even though those games haven’t resulted in wins.  In their last three games, the Nets won in Houston, lost by 2 points in Sacramento, and lost by 8 points in overtime at Golden State.  “I think you can see a progression pretty much every night,” center Brook Lopez said.  “Coach came in here and said, and each one of us agrees, we could have ended up 3-0 on this trip. We really feel that we are making steps.”  Coach Lionel Hollins agrees: “We’re a much better team than we were at the start of the year. I think that we’re developing a work ethic and a togetherness that we didn’t have before.”  Atlanta is undermanned, and since Brooklyn has had full days to get ready for this game, we’ll take the Nets in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play NETS (+).

Virginia was expected to regress some last season after losing a ton of talent from their 30-win team the previous season.  However, that did not happen as the Cavaliers went on to win 30 games once again.  The Cavaliers now have high expectations coming into this season as eight of their top ten scorers return from last year’s team.  Head coach Tony Bennett runs fantastic schemes on both ends of the court, but Virginia often has a had time winning games by margin because they play at such a slow pace.  That will be the case tonight against George Washington, a team that also plays at a slow tempo while focusing on half court offense and defense.  Virginia has a history of struggling against similar teams, and tonight’s game falls squarely into that profile.

George Washington is ready for a breakout season under head coach Mike Lonergan.  The Colonials have won 46 games over the last two seasons, and the team returns four starters this season.  George Washington will have one of the biggest lineups in the country, and their ability to stifle opponents with their defense will make them competitive in every game.  The Colonials’ defense held opponents to just 40.4% shooting from the field last season, and they are expected to be even stingier this season.  George Washington gets this game on their home court; a small gym that only holds 5,000 people.  That’s a nice advantage to have against a big-name team used to playing in spacious arenas.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with George Washington on Monday night.

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (+).

Dallas has assembled a deep and talented roaster that has a lot of experience for the 2015 season.  The Mavericks are a veteran-laden team, but their age will set them up in some bad spots this season.  And tonight is one of those spots.  Dallas will be playing their fifth game in seven nights against a young, fast and athletic Philadelphia team that will run up and down the court.  Dallas is already a fatigued team, and they will simply wear down as this game goes on.  Head coach Rick Carlisle knows that his team is up against it in this game: “I’ve watched their last three games, and for me it’s the most dangerous game on the schedule because of how hard they play. They hang in games. They’re young, they’re athletic, they’re going to play hard.”

Philadelphia is the last remaining winless team in the NBA; they are 0-10 on the season.  But the Sixers have played an absolutely brutal schedule which has prevented them from winning.  Philadelphia has played Cleveland twice, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Toronto, Chicago and Utah who are all superior teams.  The Sixers finally get a team they can compete against as Dallas is simply a good notch below the teams mentioned above.  Philadelphia will also get Robert Covington back on the court, and he is a key piece to their team.  The Sixers return home off back-to-back road games, so they are primed for a peak performance.  This is simply too many points for Dallas to be laying on the road, so we’ll take Philadelphia in this game on Monday night.

10* Play SIXERS (+).

Eastern Illinois is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Panthers are coming off one of their best seasons in program history when head coach Jay Spoonhour led the team to their first postseason appearance since 2001.  However, the majority of that team has departed.  Eastern Illinois has nine newcomers, including six true freshman, two junior college transfers, and a graduate transfer on the roster this season.  The Panthers are trying to run an up-tempo offense, but it’s going to take a lot of time for this team to come together.  Eastern Illinois gets a terrible match-up in their season opener as Indiana is simply the superior team that also runs an up-tempo offense.  The fact that the Hoosiers play extremely fast means that Eastern Illinois will be overrun by better talent while unable to trade points.

Indiana is built to win right away as they return four starters from last year’s 20-win team that made the NCAA tournament.  The Hoosiers averaged 77 points per game last season while shooting 46.4% from the field and 40.6% from three-point land.  Indiana is also a good free throw shooting team (71.9%) which helps them extend leads.  Indiana is taking this game seriously, so we can expect a peak performance in their season opener.  “It’s critical,” senior guard Nick Zeisloft said.  “Coach hit on that. All the practices, all the exhibitions, all the games that lead up. Everything adds up.”  The Hoosiers are the better team by a wide margin, so we expect Indiana to win this game by 30 points or more on Friday night.  

10* Play INDIANA (-).

Los Angeles is in a difficult situational and scheduling spot for this game in Phoenix on Thursday night.  The Clippers played last night in Dallas; a game that carried a lot of emotion with the DeAndre Jordan situation.  Jordan spurned the Mavericks in free agency, so the media hype surrounding the game made it mentally draining for the Clippers.  Los Angeles lost 118-108 in a game that came right down to the wire; it was a 2-point game with a minute left to play.  Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both played over 34 minutes, and three bench players played over 21 minutes.  The Clippers will be a fatigued team tonight, especially since they are playing on a back-to-back set while also playing their third game in four nights.  Los Angeles is just 1-3 in their last four games with their lone win coming by just 2 points at home against Memphis.   

Phoenix revamped their roster for 2015, and their moves were intended to help their team chemistry on and off the court.  Team basketball has been much better for the Suns this season, and that makes them a dangerous team, especially when getting points in good spots like tonight.  The Suns are just 3-4 on the season, and they come into this game off back-to-back losses.  However, the Suns have had three full days to get ready for this game, and they are catching Los Angeles at the perfect time.  Phoenix only lost by 6 points (102-96) in Los Angeles ten days ago, and that was when the Clippers were in much better form.  We expect a peak performance by Phoenix, especially since Los Angeles is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game.  We’ll back the Suns in this game on Thursday night.    

10* Play SUNS (+).

Indiana opened the season with three straight losses, but the Pacers have gone 4-1 since then.  Their lone loss in their last five games came by just 4 points at Cleveland.  The Pacers are playing with confidence and momentum right now, and they already beat Boston earlier this season.  Indiana won 100-98 at home, and the Celtics were a much healthier team for that game.  Boston may be without two backcourt starters in the game, so their bench and depth would be at a disadvantage in this game.  The Pacers are playing at a much quicker pace this season, and their offense has come together recently; they’ve scored 97 points or more in three of their last four games.  

Boston played last night in Milwaukee and the Celtics won 99-83 despite woeful shooting.  The Celtics shot just 44.2% (38-86) from the field and 23.3% (7-30) from three-point land yet they won by 16 points.  That was a terrible performance by Boston, especially since they went into that game off 3 full days of rest.  Now they must wheel right back and play a back-to-back set against a better team that had last night off.  Boston’s Avery Bradley injured his leg last night; he will be a game-time decision along with Marcus Smart who has missed the last three games with a toe injury.  Indiana is simply the better team, so we’ll take the Pacers plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.       

10* Play PACERS (+).

Charlotte comes into this game with just a 2-4 record on the season, but the Hornets have played a tough schedule.  Charlotte has faced Atlanta twice, Chicago, and San Antonio in four of their six games, so their losing record is certainly understandable.  The Hornets got blown out by 20 points (114-94) in San Antonio in their last game, so we can be assured we’ll get their best effort tonight.  Overall, the Hornets have played respectable defense considering the opponents they have faced.  Charlotte is only allowing 46.3% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land this season.  They’ve held three of their six opponents to 97, 94, and 94 points which is good considering the high-scoring offenses they have played.  Charlotte has had two full days to get ready for this game, and they are catching their opponent at the perfect time.    

Minnesota played in a wild, high-scoring game last night in Atlanta.  The Timberwolves led that game 72-42 at the half before trailing 107-106 with three minutes left in the game.  Minnesota then closed the game on an 11-0 run to win 117-107.  That’s the second consecutive big road win for Minnesota over a high profile team; they beat the Bulls 102-93 in overtime on Saturday night.  In last night’s game against the Hawks, Minnesota shot 57.5% (46-80) from the field and 46.7% (7-15) from three-point land with six players scoring 10 points or more.  This is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Minnesota, especially since they are an extremely young team while also playing their third game in four nights.  We’ll back Charlotte in this game on Tuesday night.         

10* Play HORNETS (-).

Portland is a shell of the team that won 51 games last season.  And that’s why their season wins total was virtually cut in half for 2015.  With four of their five starters from last season gone, the Trail Blazers are basically a one-man team with Damian Lillard.  He’s the lone leftover from last year’s starting five, and overall the Trail Blazers are an extremely young team.  Portland was cruising to an easy home win last night as they led Detroit by 13 points going into the fourth quarter.  But the team suffered an epic collapse while getting out-scored 41-11 over the final 12 minutes of the game to lose 120-103.  Now they must wheel right back and play in the thin air and altitude of Denver which is a terrible situation considering they will be playing with a hangover.

Denver is also a team in transition this season.  The Nuggets’ offensive identity has changed with new head coach Mike Malone, but his presence has improved the team chemistry on and off the court.  Denver is just 2-4 on the season, but the Nuggets have faced Golden State, Oklahoma City, and Utah who all have significant match-up advantages over Denver.  The Nuggets will be playing just their third home game of the season; they are 0-2 at home, so this game is ultra important.  Denver has had two full days to get ready for this game, and they are catching Portland at the perfect time.  We expect a peak performance by Denver, especially since a young Portland team is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game.  We’ll back the Nuggets in this game on Monday night.    

9* Play NUGGETS (+).

Houston has a high-scoring offense that plays at an extremely fast pace.  After opening the season with three straight low-scoring offensive outputs, Houston has gotten back to their high-scoring ways.  The Rockets have scored 110 and 119 points in their last two games, and we fully expect them to produce a lot of points once again in this game.  The Rockets’ defense has been horrendous this season.  Overall, Houston is giving up 109 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.  Houston has given up 105 points or more in every game so far this season, and that streak will continue against the Kings tonight. 

Sacramento added point guard Rajon Rondo, and his presence on the court instantly makes the Kings a much better offensive team, especially since they are running George Karl’s fast-paced offensive system.  The Kings have struggled to score points in just one game this season, and that was when they scored 89 points against a strong Memphis defense.  Sacramento has scored 97 points or more in their other four games, including 104 points or more in three of those games.  The Kings’ defense has also been terrible, especially last night when they gave up 118 points to the Suns.  Overall, Sacramento is giving up 112 points per game on 50.4% shooting from the field.  This game will be played at an extremely fast pace, and since both teams have poor defenses, we expect a high-scoring game between the Rockets and Kings on Friday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Detroit suffered their first loss of the season on Tuesday night when the Pacers beat them 94-82 on their home floor.  The Pistons come into tonight’s game with a 3-1 record with their three wins coming against the Bulls, Jazz, and Hawks who are a combined 12-5 on the season.  Detroit has been winning against good teams, so their 3-1 mark is legitimate.  The Pistons have had two full days to get ready for this game, and since they are off a poor performance where they only shot 38.4% (33-86) from the field and 22.7% (5-22) from three-point land, we expect a strong bounce back effort in this game.  Detroit has five players averaging 9.5 points per game or more with three players averaging 17.2 points per game or more.  Their scoring has been balanced between the starters and the bench, and that’s one of the reasons they’ve won games this season.

Phoenix comes into this game with a 3-2 record after blowing out the Kings 118-97 last night.  The Suns’ wins have come against Portland and Sacramento who are a combined 5-6 on the season.  Phoenix played well above their heads last night when they shot 54.2% (45-83) from the field and an incredible 60.9% (14-23) from three-point land.  The Suns never trailed in that game, and six players scored 10 points or more.  It was a complete team effort, but now they are stepping way up in class against a well rested team while playing on a back-to-back set.  This is a bad spot for the Suns, and they are simply overvalued in this game.  We’ll take Detroit plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play PISTONS (+).

Toronto comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 record, but the opponents played has a lot to do with that.  The Raptors played Indiana in their season opener; the Pacers are implementing a new system.  Toronto then beat a mediocre Boston team before waxing an injury-riddled Milwaukee team and an old Dallas team last night.  The Raptors are now taking a major step-up in class, and they are doing it on a back-to-back set.  Toronto is also playing their third game in four nights, and it’s coming on the backend of the always tough Texas travel spot.  Toronto’s defense has good numbers to date, but they are playing the second best offense in the NBA tonight, and we expect the Raptors’ defense to play their worst game of the season.       

Oklahoma City returns home off their first loss of the season; the Thunder lost 110-105 in Houston on Monday night.  Oklahoma City was in a poor spot for that game as it came on a back-to-back set against a desperate Houston team that was getting Dwight Howard back on the court.  The Thunder is the team in the good scheduling spot now, especially since they are catching Toronto in a terrible spot.  Oklahoma City’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 114.5 points per game on 50.6% shooting from the field and 45.5% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma City is in a good spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Thunder in this game on Wednesday night.         

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Boston opened their season with an easy 112-95 win over a hapless Philadelphia team, but since that win, the Celtics have gone 0-2 while losing by 8 and 10 points.  Granted, Boston’s two losses have come against Toronto and San Antonio who are a combined 7-1 on the season.  But the Celtics played all three games on their home court while going into every game with a day off.  That’s the case again tonight, but the difference is that this game is on the road.  Boston is also dealing with an injury to Avery Bradley (hand); he will be a game-time decision.  The Celtics will also be at a match-up disadvantage against the Pacers who have implemented a small-ball style of play this season.        

Indiana got their first win of the season last night in Detroit.  The Pacers won that game 94-82, so it took little out of them for this back-to-back set.  Indiana returns home with some confidence and momentum, and they’ll be eager to notch their first home win of the season.  The Pacers are playing at a much quicker pace this season, and their offense came together last night with five players scoring 10 points or more.  Indiana got even scoring from the second unit as the bench scored 43 points while the starters chipped in 51 points.  Indiana is projected to be a better team than Boston at season’s end, and it’s surprising the Pacers are home underdogs in this game.  We’ll back Indiana plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.       

9* Play PACERS (+).

Atlanta caught the league off-guard last season when they went 60-22 in the regular season.  The Hawks came into this season as a known commodity, and because of that, their opponents have come focused in their games.  Atlanta comes into tonight’s game with a 3-1 record, but two of those wins have come against the Charlotte Hornets and their other win was over the New York Knicks.  The Hawks’ two wins over Charlotte came by a combined 5 points, so they’ve struggled despite winning.  Atlanta is also dealing with injuries, and they are having an impact on both ends of the court.  Thabo Sefolosha (ankle) will miss tonight’s game while Jeff Teague (finger), Kyle Korver (ankle), and Mike Muscala (ankle) are all dealing with nagging injuries.   

Miami is finally 100% healthy, and the Heat have played terrific basketball on both ends of the court this season.  Miami comes into tonight’s game with a 2-1 record with their lone loss coming in Cleveland against the 3-1 Cavaliers.  Miami’s two home wins have come by 10 and 20 points while holding their opponents to just 94 and 89 points.  Miami owns the league’s third best offense in efficiency as they are averaging 1.07 points per 100 possessions; only Golden State and Oklahoma City rank higher.  Dwyane Wade is playing some of the best basketball of his career; he scored 20 points or more in all three games.  Miami’s defense has been stifling at home while only allowing 91.5 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 26.7% shooting from three-point land.  Miami is undervalued, and since they are catching Atlanta at less than 100%, we’ll lay the points with the Heat in this game on Tuesday night.         

10* Play HEAT (-).

Memphis and Golden State last met in the NBA playoffs last season with the Warriors winning in six games.  The Grizzlies put-up a good fight considering point Mike Conley was playing injured and their best defensive stopper, Tony Allen, was gimpy with a hamstring injury.  Memphis is now at full strength, and this is the game they’ve been pointing for.  The Grizzlies were embarrassed by Cleveland by 30 points in their season opener, but since that game, Memphis has won two games by 9 and 10 points.  The Grizzlies’ calling card is their defense, but so far this season, their offense has been terrific.  Memphis changed their lineup with Jeff Green now coming off the bench, and that move has paid dividends for the second unit.

Golden State was the best team in the NBA last season, and they’ve picked up right where they left off.  The Warriors are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS with all three wins coming by 14 points or more.  However, Golden State has played New Orleans twice and Houston; those teams are riddled with injuries and they are a combined 0-6 on the season.  In their last game in New Orleans, the Warriors scored 134 points after shooting 54.8% (46-84) from the field and 56.7% (17-30) from three-point land.  Stephen Curry scored 53 points on 63% (17-27) shooting from the field and 57.1% (8-14) from three-point land.  He out-scored the Pelicans 28-26 in the third quarter alone.  There has to be some regression tonight, especially against a strong defensive team like the Grizzlies.  We’ll take the generous points and back Memphis in this game on Monday night.

9* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Portland is a shell of the team that won 51 games last season.  Their season wins total was virtually cut in half for 2015.  With four of their five starters from last season gone, the Trail Blazers are starting from scratch.  Damian Lillard is the lone leftover from last year’s starting five.  The Trail Blazers are an extremely young team, and those guys played well above their heads in their season opener.  Portland beat the Pelicans 112-94 after shooting 50% (44-88) from the field.  However, New Orleans only dressed 9 players and they were playing on a back-to-back set.  Portland led 43-18 after the first quarter, but after that, the Trail Blazers got out-scored by 7 points over the final three quarters.  

Phoenix revamped their roster for 2015, and their moves were intended to help their team chemistry on and off the court.  Team basketball will be much better for the Suns this season, and that makes them a dangerous team, especially against opponents that are on their level.  Phoenix opened their season with a disappointing 111-95 home loss to Dallas.  The Suns shot just 39.1% (34-87) from the field and 25% (6-24) from three-point land.  Phoenix was taken out of their game in the first half because of fouls, so their season opener was not a true indicator of the Suns.  With Portland off an above average performance and Phoenix off a poor performance, the Suns are in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Friday night. 

9* Play SUNS (-).

Los Angeles has a high-scoring offense that plays at an extremely fast pace.  In their season opener against Minnesota, the Lakers scored 111 points after taking 93 shots from the field, including 35 three-point attempts.  That will be a normal game for Los Angeles this season, especially with Kobe Bryant back on the court and surrounded by a lot of youth.  Los Angeles shot the ball terribly from the floor yet they still scored 111 points.  The Lakers shot just 37.6% (35-93) from the field and 25.7% (9-35) from three-point land.  Los Angeles also owns a terrible defense; they allowed the Timberwolves to score 112 points despite shooting just 45.8% from the field and 25% from three-point land.       

Sacramento added point guard Rajon Rondo, and his presence on the court instantly makes the Kings a much better team, especially since they’ll be running George Karl’s fast-paced offensive system.  In their season opener against the Clippers, the Kings scored 104 points after taking 94 shots from the field, including 24 attempts from three-point land.  Sacramento only shot 43.6% (41-94) from the field while only hitting 11 free throws.  Despite those low numbers, the Kings still scored 28 points or more in each of the final three quarters.  This game will be played at an extremely fast pace, and since both teams have poor defenses, we expect a high-scoring game between the Lakers and Kings on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Dallas has assembled a deep and talented roaster that has a lot of experience for the 2015 season.  The Mavericks are a veteran-laden team, but their age will set them up in some bad spots this season.  And tonight is one of those spots.  Dallas won 111-95 in Phoenix last night after shooting 47.1% (40-85) from the field and 47.6% (10-21) from three-point land.  The Mavericks had a good match-up considering the Suns have a revamped roster that is still learning how to play together.  Dallas is playing two guards, Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews, who are on a minutes restriction.  Williams hurt his knee last night, and his status is uncertain for tonight’s game.  So the Mavericks are an older team that has issues at both guard spots, and they are playing on a back-to-back road set while stepping way up in class.

Los Angeles also played last night; they beat the Kings 111-104 in Sacramento.  The Clippers shot well from the field (52.5%), but they were terrible from three-point land where they only shot 31.6% (6-19).  Los Angeles also missed 10 free throws yet they still scored 111 points.  The Clippers got rid of the dead weight from last season, and they brought in some experienced playoff veterans like Paul Pierce to help them get over the hump.  The Clippers have one of the best trios in the NBA with Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan, and their offense will simply score the ball at will once again this season.  Their biggest improvement is on the bench, and that is where they hold a major advantage over Dallas.  We’ll lay the points with the Clippers in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play CLIPPERS (-).

The New York Knicks are projected to be one of the worst teams in the NBA once again this season.  New York went 17-65 last season while breaking in a new system under new GM Phil Jackson and new head coach Derek Fisher.  The Knicks installed the triangle offense, but they simply did not have the right personnel nor the experience to run it correctly.  And that’s still the case with the Knicks, especially since they are working in new players like rookies Jerian Grant and Kristaps Porzingis with veterans Robin Lopez, Sasha Vujacic, and Derrick Williams.  New York will be without starting shooting guard Aaron Afflalo, Kevin Seraphin, and Lou Amundson due to injury.  The Knicks are basically a one-man team right now with Carmelo Anthony, and that’s not a good thing when facing a very good defensive team like the Bucks.

Milwaukee went 41-41 last season, and in their second year under head coach Jason Kidd, we expect the Bucks to improve even more.  Milwaukee added big man Greg Monroe who is fantastic inside the paint on both ends of the court.  The Bucks had an exceptional defense last season that held opponents to just 43.7% shooting from the field.  That defense should once again stifle opposing offenses, especially teams that have one main scoring threat like the Knicks.  Milwaukee held New York to 91 points or less in three of their four meetings last season with the Bucks winning those games by 8, 13, and 16 points.  We expect a similar result tonight, so we’ll lay the points with Milwaukee in their season opener at home.           

10* Play BUCKS (-).

Golden State and Cleveland will play Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Tuesday night.  The Warriors took a 3-2 series lead after winning Game 5 by 13 points (104-91).  Golden State had another good offensive game as they scored 104 points on 48% (36-75) shooting from the field and 46.2% (12-26) shooting from three-point land.  The Warriors scored 103 points on 46.8% (36-77) shooting from the field and 40% (12-30) shooting from three-point land in their Game 4 win in Cleveland.  So in their last two games, Golden State has scored 207 points on 47.4% (72-152) shooting from the field and 42.9% (24-56) shooting from three-point land.  Overall, the Warriors’ offense averages 108.6 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 39.3% shooting from three-point land.  Cleveland’s defense has started to regress sharply, and we expect another poor performance tonight.  The Cavaliers held ten of their first twelve playoff opponents to 99 points or less.  Since then, Cleveland has allowed 103 points or more in four of their last seven games.  The team seems to be wearing down, and that will be evident once again tonight, especially if Golden State pushes the pace like they have in the past two games.

Cleveland returns home off back-to-back blowout losses, so we expect a bounce back performance, especially from their offense.  The Cavaliers scored 91 points on a poor 39.5% (32-81) shooting from the field and 34.3% (12-35) shooting from three-point land in Game 5.  In Game 4 at home, Cleveland only scored 82 points on 33% (29-88) shooting from the field and 14.8% (4-27) shooting from three-point land.  So in their last two games, Cleveland has only scored 173 points on 36.1% (61-169) shooting from the field and 25.8% (16-62) shooting from three-point land.  Overall, the Cavaliers’ offense averages 103.3 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  My mathematical re-scoring model says the last four games of this series should have been higher scoring.  In Game 2, my model had 202 points based on the 48-minute pace of play, but only 188 points were scored including overtime.  In Game 3, my re-score model was 198.5, but only 187 points were actually scored.  In Game 4, the re-score was 196 with only 185 points actually scored.  In Game 5, the re-score was 198 points, but only 195 points were actually scored mainly due to Andre Iguodala shooting 2-for-11 from the free throw line and the fact neither team scored a point in first 2 1/2 minutes of the game.  There is now value with the Over based on the recent results and a faster pace of play than the real final scores have indicated.  Look for a high-scoring Game 6 of the NBA Finals between Golden State and Cleveland on Tuesday night.

9* Play OVER the total (Warriors/Cavaliers).

Cleveland and Golden State will play Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.  The series is all tied at 2-2 after the Warriors won Game 4 by 21 points (103-82).  It was a good setup for Golden State off back-to-back losses as they were due for a breakout game while the Cavaliers were due to regress off three consecutive strong games, especially from LeBron James.  He only scored 20 points on 31.8% (7-22) shooting from the field, 25% (1-4) shooting from three-point land, and 50% (5-10) shooting from the free throw line.  The Cavaliers are basically a one-man team with LeBron James now, and they virtually have no chance against the Warriors when he isn’t scoring.  Off that poor performance in Game 4, we expect a big bounce back effort tonight, especially on offense.  The Under is 3-1 in this series with the only Over coming because of overtime in Game 1.  However, my mathematical re-scoring model says the last three games of this series should have been higher scoring based on the pace of play.  In Game 2, my re-score model showed 202 points scored, but only 188 points were scored even with overtime.  In Game 3, my re-score model was 198.5 points, but only 187 points were actually scored.  In Game 4, my re-score was 196 points, but only 185 points were actually scored.  Based on the above numbers, the pace has been faster than the actual final scores indicate and there is value with the Over in Game 5 tonight based on the recent results and below average offensive performances.

Golden State finally had a good offensive game on Thursday night.  The Warriors scored 103 points on 46.8% (36-77) shooting from the field and 40% (12-30) shooting from three-point land.  The five starters bounced back strong as expected as they combined to score 84 points after a horrendous performance in Game 3.  The Warriors return home where they are an incredible 47-4 SU on the season.  Golden State’s offense averages 111 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 40% shooting from three-point land at home.  In ten home playoff games, the Warriors are averaging 101 points per game.  After a strong defensive start to the playoffs, Cleveland has regressed sharply on that end of the court.  The Cavaliers held ten of their first twelve opponents to 99 points or less.  Since then, Cleveland has allowed 103 points or more in three of their last six games.  These two teams appear to be wearing down, and that will be evident again tonight, especially on defense if Golden State pushes the pace like they did in Game 4.  We expect a high-scoring Game 5 of the NBA Finals between Cleveland and Golden State on Sunday night.

10* Play OVER the total (Cavaliers/Warriors).

Golden State played an inexplicably bad game on Tuesday night despite being in a terrific bounce back spot.  The Warriors’ shooting woes continued in Game 3 as they only hit 40% (36-90) from the field and 35% (12-34) from three-point land.  Golden State did not get to the free throw line much either, and when they did, they hit just 58% (7-12).  That’s back-to-back poor offensive performances for one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA.  There’s a high probability that Golden State’s poor shooting will reverse in Game 4 tonight, and we’ll finally see the team that dominated the league this season.  The Warriors are now 13-5 SU in the playoffs, but they only scored 91 points in Game 3.  It was just the seventh time in eighteen playoff games in which the Warriors scored less than 100 points.  Golden State’s starters only combined to score 52 total points in Game 3 despite averaging nearly 78 points per game this season.  Overall, Golden State played one of their worst games in the entire playoffs, and a big bounce back performance is expected, especially from a team that is 80-20 SU and has not lost three straight games all season.

Cleveland has played much better than expected in the first three games considering their limited team.  The Cavaliers are without Kyrie Irvin and Kevin Love, so they are now basically a one-man team with LeBron James, and the loss of the other key players has definitely hurt their offensive options.  In Game 1, James scored 44 of Cleveland’s 100 points.  In Game 2, he scored 39 of Cleveland’s 95 points.  In Game 3, he scored 40 of Cleveland’s 96 points.  So 123 of Cleveland’s 291 total points have come from one player; that’s 42% of the team’s total points.  That type of point distribution is difficult to achieve going forward, especially since role players who have over-achieved are likely to regress; Dellavedova is battling fatigue and cramps, while Shumpert has a shoulder injury.

Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, eight of Golden State’s thirteen playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ thirteen playoff wins have come by an average of +12.2 points per game with their five road playoff wins coming by a whopping +16 points per game.  Golden State also has the #1 defense in the NBA based on efficiency metrics, so they own the edge over Cleveland at both ends of the court.  Golden State is still the better overall team despite being down in this series, so we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in a good bounce-back spot in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

The NBA Finals will relocate to Cleveland for Game 3 on Tuesday night.  The series is tied at one game apiece after the teams split two overtime games at Golden State.  The Warriors are now 13-4 SU in the playoffs after their home loss in Game 2.  Golden State played their third worst game on offense in the playoffs as they only scored 93 points despite the game going into overtime.  It was just the sixth time in 17 playoff games in which the Warriors scored less than 100 points.  Golden State shot just 39.8% (33-83) from the field and a horrendous 22.9% (8-35) from three-point land.  Stephen Curry had a rare off game as he only scored 19 points on an ugly 21.7% (5-23) shooting performance from the field, including a terrible 13.3% (2-15) shooting from three-point land.  Clay Thompson was also terrible from beyond the arc as he only shot 33.3% (4-12) from three-point land.  Combined, Curry and Thompson shot a woeful 22.2% (6-27) from three-point land.  That duo is too good to shoot that bad again, so we expect big numbers from Curry and Thompson, especially from beyond the arc.  Overall, Golden State played one of their worst games in the entire playoffs, and a big bounce back performance is expected, especially from a team that is 80-19 SU on the season.

Cleveland played much better than expected in Games 1 and 2 considering their limited team.  The Cavaliers are without Kyrie Irvin and Kevin Love, so they are basically a one-man team with LeBron James now, and the loss of the other players has definitely hurt their offense.  In Game 1, James scored 44 of Cleveland’s 100 points.  In Game 2, he scored 39 of Cleveland’s 95 points.  So 83 of Cleveland’s 195 total points have come from one player; that’s 42.5% of the team’s total points.  That type of point distribution cannot continue, especially since the performance of the player is likely to regress after back-to-back perfect games.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, eight of Golden State’s thirteen playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ thirteen playoff wins have come by an average of +12.2 points per game with their five road playoff wins coming by a whopping 16 points per game.  Golden State also has the #1 defense in the NBA based on efficiency metrics, so they own the edge over Cleveland at both ends of the court.  Golden State is the better overall team, and they will be extra focused after their home loss, so we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Tuesday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Cleveland and Golden State will play Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.  The Cavaliers are now 12-3 SU and 8-7 ATS in the playoffs after blowing Game 1.  Cleveland led for the majority of that game, but Golden State made some big shots down the stretch and the Cavaliers eventually lost in overtime.  Not only that, but Cleveland also lost Kyrie Irvin for the rest of the Finals after he fractured his knee cap.  Irving’s loss is monumental for Cleveland, especially since Kevin Love was lost in an earlier playoff game.  The Cavaliers are basically a one-man team with LeBron James now, and the loss of the other players is definitely going to hurt their offense.  In Game 1, James scored 44 of Cleveland’s 100 points, and he’ll have to score even more now that Irving is out.  Irving scored 23 points in that game, so almost 67% of Cleveland’s total points came from those two players.  With Cleveland’s offensive options now limited, they’ll have to focus on the defensive end because it’s highly unlikely that the Cavaliers can win in a high-scoring game.  We expect Cleveland to slow the pace way down, and make this a half-court game while relying on their defense to keep them competitive.

Golden State is a much better team than Cleveland, especially since the Cavaliers are missing two of their best three players.  The Warriors started slow in Game 1 and trailed by 13 points in the first quarter, but then outscored the Cavaliers by 21 points the rest of the game.  Golden State has the #1 defense in the NBA based on efficiency metrics, but their play in Game 1 was subpar as they allowed 98 points to Cleveland in regulation time.  Despite 208 points scored in Game 1, the pace of play was not that fast as my mathematical re-scoring model says only 193 points should have been scored in regulation time.  Golden State’s defense has given up 100 points or more in four playoff games, including Game 1 against Cleveland.  In their three games following, the Warriors allowed just 98, 98, and 90 points.  Off their previous two playoff losses, Cleveland’s following games only had 197 and 170 total points scored.  We anticipate a slower pace and solid defense, so look for a low-scoring Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.

10* Play UNDER the total (Cavaliers/Warriors).

Cleveland and Golden State will begin the NBA Finals on Thursday night.  The Cavaliers are 12-2 SU and 8-6 ATS in the playoffs so far.  The Warriors are 12-3 SU and just 7-8 ATS in the playoffs.  So both teams have been dominating, but neither team has been strong against the pointspread.  In Golden State’s defense, they were double-digit favorites in seven of their fifteen playoff games; they went just 2-5 ATS in those games.  So the Warriors are actually a respectable 5-3 ATS in competitively priced games.  Golden State also played the much tougher opponents to reach the Finals.  They played the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Rockets who went a combined 156-90 SU during the regular season.  Cleveland had a much easier path to the Finals.  The Cavaliers played the Celtics, Bulls, and Hawks who went a combined 150-96 during the regular season.  The numbers alone look close, but keep in mind Atlanta won 40% (60 wins) of those 150 total wins, so Cleveland had easier opponents in the first two rounds of the playoffs.  Cleveland’s defense has been terrific in the playoffs, but remember they played a pair of weak offenses in the first two rounds, and then faced an undermanned Atlanta team that was missing their best 3-point shooter (Kyle Korver), and one of their better overall players in Al Horford at times.  So the Cavaliers’ defensive numbers are skewed, and they will now take a monumental step-up in offensive class against the Warriors in this series.  In one regular season meeting at Golden State, the Cavaliers gave up 112 points to the Warriors on 50% shooting (43-86) from the field.

Golden State was the best team throughout the regular season; the Warriors went 67-15 SU with the next closest team having 60 wins (Hawks).  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, eight of Golden State’s twelve playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ seven home playoff wins have come by an average of +7.3 points per game with four of those wins coming by 10 points or more.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 46-3 SU at home this season, including an easy win over Cleveland that came by 18 points (112-94).  LeBron James did miss that game, but the Cavaliers had a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love still available.  The Warriors own an outstanding +13.5 point differential on their home court where they average 111.2 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land.  Golden State also has the #1 defense in the NBA based on efficiency metrics, so they own the edge over Cleveland at both ends of the court.

This year's NBA Finals is a great team (Warriors) versus a great player (LeBron), especially since reports indicate that Kyrie Irving is still bothered by knee tendonitis, while Kevin Love remains out.  This team vs. player mentality was evident when Golden State held a dominating 67-28 assists edge in the two regular season meetings.  The team aspect was also evident in last year's NBA Finals when the Spurs (team) went 4-1 SU/ATS and defeated the Heat (LeBron) easily in five games.  Golden State is the better overall team, so we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Houston avoided the sweep with their 128-115 home win in Game 4 on Monday night.  The Rockets were actually in a decent spot to play well in that game as they were off an embarrassing 35-point (115-80) home loss in Game 3.  Houston came to play as they shot an incredible 56.6% (43-76) from the field and a terrific 53.1% (17-32) from three-point land.  But the Rockets must now head back to Golden State for Game 5, and off such a perfect game, we expect major regression from the Rockets tonight.  In their four regular season meetings against the Warriors, Houston’s offense played awful offensive basketball.  In fact, the Rockets only ranked #22 in offensive efficiency against Golden State’s defense in those games.  It wasn’t a surprise that the Rockets went 0-4 SU in those games, and it’s a main reason why Houston is just 1-7 SU versus the Warriors this season.  Golden State has the #1 defense based on efficiency metrics, and off such a poor performance in Game 4, we expect the Warriors to bounce back with a dominating defensive effort tonight.  Houston has lost seven games in the playoffs, and five of those losses have come by 12, 16, 25, 33, and 35 points.

Golden State did not play up to their level in Game 4, but off that loss, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Warriors will be much better from the opening tip in Game 5, and that should lead to an easy blowout win by Golden State.  The Warriors return home off a road loss, and they went 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in that situation this season.  Their average win in those games came by +14.7 points.  In the playoffs, Golden State’s average win has come by +12.5 points per game.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 45-3 SU at home this season where they own an outstanding +13.5 point differential, averaging 111.4 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.  Houston’s defense has allowed 116.7 points on average in their seven road playoff games, so the Warriors’ offense should score at will in this game.  Houston is set to regress as teams that trail 0-3 in a series and win Game 4 are just 13-34 SU in Game 5.  Golden State is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals on Wednesday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Atlanta played terrible basketball in both games on their home court, and it was the first time all season in which they lost back-to-back home games.  The Hawks came to play in Game 3 in Cleveland despite missing starter Kyle Korver.  The Hawks also had to play without Al Horford who got ejected for a flagrant foul.  Atlanta was quite impressive in taking the Cavaliers into overtime considering their limited lineup.  There is some concern with the way the Hawks lost Game 3 and being down 3-0 in this series, but these quotes say this Class-A team isn’t going to give up.  “We know we can compete at a high level,” Hawks point guard Jeff Teague said.  “We know we can beat this team.”  Shelvin Mack added: “You can’t judge three games over 82 games. Our record speaks for itself.”  Overall, the Hawks have won 68 games this season, and their offense ranked #2 in efficiency against Cleveland’s defense this season.  Atlanta’s offense averaged 109 points per game against Cleveland in the regular season, so we expect a repeat performance of Game 3 from the Hawks tonight.  

Cleveland is up 3-0 in this series thanks to their three-point shooting.  Cleveland has hit a combined 36 three’s in the first three games compared to Atlanta only making 21 three’s in those games.  That’s a difference of 45 points in favor of Cleveland, and the major difference in this series considering the Cavaliers three wins have come by a combined 23 points.  Cleveland’s three-point shooting is due for regression in Game 4 while Atlanta’s three-point shooting is due for a positive reversal, and that alone makes this game much closer.  Cleveland sat Kyrie Irving in Games 2 and 3 with a knee injury, and it appears they will keep him out of tonight’s game, especially since they are up 3-0 in the series.  LeBron James scored 37 points on 37 shot attempts in Game 3, but he was clearly fatigued after that performance.  He is also dealing with a bunch of nagging injuries, so he may regress tonight.  Despite losing the first three games, Atlanta is still an excellent team at an inflated price, so we’ll back the Hawks in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Tuesday night.                 

10* Play HAWKS (+).

Atlanta played terrible basketball in both games on their home court, and it was the first time all season in which they lost back-to-back home games.  The Hawks will now play in Cleveland with their season on the line, and Atlanta should bring a better effort tonight.  The pointspread is greatly inflated now because of the recent results, and the absence of Kyle Korver who was lost for the rest of the season after injuring his ankle in Game 2.  The oddsmakers have adjusted this line nearly 12 points from the previous game, and that is way too much.  Atlanta’s offense scored just 89 and 82 points in the first two games on 42.9% (67-156) shooting from the field and 20.4% (10-49) shooting from three-point land.  Overall, the Hawks’ offense ranked #2 in efficiency against Cleveland’s defense this season, so the Hawks’ performances so far have been well below normal.  Atlanta’s offense averaged 109 points per game against Cleveland in four regular season meetings, so their terrible offensive output in back-to-back playoff games is an anomaly that is likely to reverse in Game 3 tonight.

Cleveland returns home after two above average performances in Atlanta.  The Cavaliers won both games because of terrific three-point shooting.  Cleveland hit a combined 22 three-point shots in the first two games compared to Atlanta only making 10 three-pointers in those games.  That’s a difference of 36 points in favor of Cleveland, and the major difference in this series considering the Cavaliers two wins have come by a combined 20 points.  Hot and cold three-point shooting is the most random variable in basketball and Cleveland’s three-point shooting is due for a regression in Game 3 while Atlanta’s three-point shooting is due for a positive reversal, and that alone makes this game much closer than the inflated pointspread suggests.  Cleveland sat Kyrie Irving in Game 2 with a knee injury, and it appears they will keep him out of tonight’s game, especially since they are up 2-0 in the series.  Irving is listed as a game-time decision, so he may play, but insiders sound convinced that he won’t be on the court.  Matthew Dellavedova played fantastic in Irving’s place, but he also attempted the second most shots in his career.  He is also due to regress in this game, so the potential absence of Irving is more likely to have a major impact this time as compared to Friday.  Despite losing the first two games, Atlanta is still an excellent team that owns 68 wins this season.  This is a solid spot to take the Hawks at an inflated price, so we’ll back Atlanta in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday night.

10* Play HAWKS (+).

Golden State and Houston have played both games in this series Under the total, and because of that, the oddsmakers have adjusted this line too much.  In Games 1 and 2, the totals closed around 219.5 or 219 in each game.  For Game 3, the total has been lowered nearly 5 full points which is simply too much of an over-adjustment, and that has now created solid value with the Over.  The Warriors and Rockets have played at a fast pace in their meetings this season; they played in games that averaged 104.5 possessions per game.  In Game 1, the pace was fast as the teams combined to take 178 shots with 51 attempts from three-point land.  They shot terribly from the floor, and they missed 18 free throws combined, and only came up 4 points shy of going Over the total.  Game 2 was much lower scoring with 197 points, but once again the outside shooting was mediocre and the teams only took 32 free throws combined.  Yet both teams were close to eclipsing the century mark.

Houston’s offense was not good in Game 2.  The Rockets scored just 98 points on 46.4% shooting (39-84) from the field.  Houston only shot 30.4% (7-23) from three-point land, but that is somewhat misleading.  James Harden and Jason Terry made six of those seven three’s on eleven attempts (54.5%).  The rest of the team shot just 8.3% (1-12) from three-point land.  Overall, the three-point shooting has been abysmal for both teams in the first two games.  Combined, Golden State and Houston have shot just 33.7% (33-98) from beyond the arc.  Another area that has been an issue for both teams has been free throw shooting.  The Warriors and Rockets are hitting a combined 65.9% (54-82) from the line.  That’s a whopping 28 free points that have been missed, and when you combine the uncharacteristically bad three-point shooting, there’s plenty of upside for a higher scoring game.  We expect both offenses to play up to their abilities, and for the Rockets to push the pace on their home court, which should lead to a high-scoring Game 3 on Saturday night.

10* Play OVER the total (Warriors/Rockets - Game 3).

Cleveland stole Game 1 in Atlanta on Wednesday night.  The Cavaliers won that game 97-89, but they hardly played a winning game.  Cleveland shot just 44% (37-84) from the field and 38.5% (10-26) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers only hit 65% (13-20) from the free throw line.  That type of performance should not win a playoff game, especially on the road against the best team in the conference.  LeBron James played his typical game, scoring 31 points on 46.2% (12-26) shooting from the field.  Cleveland also got a terrific game from an unlikely source as J.R. Smith scored 28 points off the bench on 62.5% (10-16) shooting from the field, including an incredible 66.7% (8-12) shooting from three-point land.  It’s highly unlikely Smith will repeat that performance tonight, so the scoring duties will all be on LeBron.  Cleveland may also be without Kyrie Irving in this game because of a knee injury.  Irving said he doesn’t “have it right now” referring to his explosiveness and ability to get to the rim.  Cleveland is just 1-2 in Atlanta this season after winning Game 1, so it’s hard to imagine the Cavaliers beating the Hawks on their home court in back-to-back games.

Atlanta’s offense was terrible in Game 1.  The Hawks shot just 44.2% (34-77) from the field, and a horrendous 17.4% (4-23) from three-point land.  Atlanta’s offense is too good to play that bad again, especially on their home court.  Overall, the Hawks’ offense ranked #2 in efficiency against Cleveland’s defense this season, so the Hawks will shoot a much better percentage in Game 2.  The Hawks have been fantastic at home this season where they are 40-8 overall and own an impressive +7.8 point differential.  Atlanta’s offense averages 102.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  The Cavaliers are allowing 99.7 points per game on the road this season, and since the Hawks’ offense averages 105 points per game against Cleveland, we expect a big bounce back effort from Atlanta.  We’ll back the Hawks in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Friday night.                 

9* Play HAWKS (-).

Houston initially played much better than expected in Game 1 on Tuesday night.  The Rockets were ahead 31-24 after the first quarter, and they led by 16 points in the middle of the second quarter.  Houston came into that game off an emotionally grueling 7-game series with the Clippers who had the Rockets down 3-1.  Houston then trailed by 19 points on the Clippers’ home court in Game 6 before making a miraculous comeback in that game, and they went on to win Game 7 as an underdog on their home court.  Then they played Game 1 at Golden State just 48 hours removed from back-to-back exceptional games.  And somehow Houston had enough energy remaining to jump out to a big lead over the Warriors.  But after blowing that 16-point lead, we expect a major regression by the Rockets tonight.  Houston was out-scored by 11 points over the final three quarters, and out-scored 77-57 over the final 31 minutes of Game 1 on Tuesday night.  Houston has lost five games in the playoffs, and four of those losses have come by 12, 16, 25, and 33 points.  The Rockets may also be without Dwight Howard tonight; he is a game-time decision with a knee injury.

Golden State was not at their best early in Game 1, but their superiority over Houston showed as the game went on.  The Warriors will be much better from the opening tip in Game 2, and a peak performance by Golden State will lead to an easy blowout win.  The Warriors have won four consecutive games by a combined 54 points.  In fact, six of Golden State’s nine playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ four home playoff wins have come by an average of +11.2 points per game.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 44-3 SU at home this season, including three wins over Houston that have come by a combined 29 points.  The Warriors own an outstanding +13.8 point differential on their home court where they average 111.7 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 40.8% shooting from three-point land.  Houston’s defense has allowed 119.7 points per game in their six road playoff games, so the Warriors’ offense should score at will in this game tonight.  Golden State is the superior team, and since Houston is off three consecutive draining games, we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Cleveland won their first two playoff series despite playing with a shorthanded lineup.  The Cavaliers simply out-classed Boston in the first round, and while Chicago gave Cleveland a battle in the second round, the Bulls were also missing some important players in those games.  Cleveland will now take a monumental step-up in class against a healthy Atlanta team while playing without Kevin Love and with an injured Kyrie Irving.  Cleveland does not match-up well against Atlanta, especially with a limited lineup.  The Hawks went 3-1 SU/ATS versus the Cavaliers in the regular season, including 2-0 SU/ATS in Atlanta.  The Hawks were the only team to beat Cleveland three times this season, and those wins came fairly easy by margins of 8, 9, and 29 points.  The incredible thing about those Atlanta wins is the fact their starting lineup only played in one of those games, and seven different players averaged 10 points or more per game against Cleveland.  Overall, the Hawks’ offense ranked #2 in efficiency against Cleveland’s defense this season.  The Cavaliers are allowing 100 points per game on the road this season, and since the Hawks’ offense averaged 109 points per game against Cleveland, we expect a rough Game 1 for the road team.

Atlanta earned the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference after going an impressive 60-22 SU in the regular season.  The Hawks are 5-1 SU in their six home playoff games, and we should get Atlanta’s ‘A’ game in Game 1 tonight.  The Hawks get the perfect match-up against the Cavaliers, especially since Atlanta will now be playing with their complete starting lineup.  As noted above, Atlanta simply dominated Cleveland this season, and we expect more of the same tonight.  The Hawks have been fantastic at home this season where they are 40-7 SU overall and own an impressive +8.1 point differential.  Atlanta’s offense averages 102.8 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  Atlanta is severely undervalued in this game, so we’ll back the Hawks in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night.

10* Play HAWKS.

Houston is fortunate to be playing in the Western Conference Finals.  The Rockets trailed 3-1 in their series against Los Angeles, and they were down 19 points in the third quarter of Game 6 on the Clippers’ home court.  Houston made a miraculous comeback in that game, and they went on to win Game 7 on their home court on Sunday afternoon.  Now they must wheel right back and play a well-rested Golden State team on the road just 48 hours removed from back-to-back exceptional games.  The Rockets will likely play this game with a major hangover, and Houston is unlikely to have focus for this game.  Houston’s overall performance in the playoffs has been very inconsistent and the Rockets have a negative point differential despite winning series over Dallas and Los Angeles.  That’s not a good sign, especially since they are in a terrible situational spot against the best team in the NBA tonight.

Golden State was the best team throughout the regular season, and after sweeping New Orleans in the first round, the Warriors took a shot from Memphis.  The Warriors lost back-to-back games to the Grizzlies, but since then, they’ve won three consecutive games by a combined 50 points.  In fact, six of Golden State’s eight playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ four home playoff wins have come by an average of +13 points per game.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 43-3 SU at home this season, including two home wins over Houston that came by +12 and +13 point margins.  The Warriors own an outstanding +14 point differential on their home court where they average 111.7 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 41% shooting from three-point land.  Houston’s defense has allowed 121.6 points per game in their five road playoff games, so the Warriors’ offense should score at will in this game tonight.  Golden State was a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in the regular season meetings versus Houston, winning every game by at least 11 points or more with an average victory margin of +15.3 points per game this season.  Golden State is the superior team, and since Houston is in a terrible situational spot, we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Golden State has won the last two games in this series in blowout fashion.  The Warriors won Game 4 by 17 points (101-84), and they won Game 5 by 20 points (98-78).  That’s two perfect games in a row by Golden State, with the last coming on their strong home court against a Memphis team that was without their best defender, Tony Allen, who is expected to return tonight.  Now the Warriors are overvalued in the pointspread based on the results of those past two games.  In Games 3 and 4, the Warriors were 4.5-point and 3.5-point road favorites in Memphis, and Golden State was coming off losses going into those games which qualified them in solid bounce-back situations.  Now off back-to-back blowout wins, the Warriors are a 5-point road favorite in Game 6 tonight, even though the situation now works against them.  This has created solid line value on the Grizzlies, especially since it is likely that the Memphis will play much better tonight.

Memphis has not played well in their last two games.  The Grizzlies have scored a total of just 162 points on horrendous 39.1% (66-169) shooting from the field and 24.2% (8-33) shooting from three-point land.  The Grizzlies’ offense is too good to play that bad for three consecutive games, especially since they will now play on their strong home court where they are 35-11 SU this season.  Memphis is also in a strong situational bounce-back spot while returning home off a road loss.  The Grizzlies are 9-3 SU and ATS in this situation based on tonight’s posted line.  Two of Memphis’ three losses in this situation have come by exactly 6 points, so they were just a couple of points away in each game from having a sterling 9-1 ATS record based on tonight's pointspread.  Expect a much better performance from Memphis this evening, so take the points with the Grizzlies in Game 6 at home on Friday night.

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Cleveland bounced back strong in Game 5 as expected; the Cavaliers beat the Bulls 106-101.  The game was not as close as the 5-point margin indicates as Cleveland led by double digits for the majority of the game.  LeBron James took over that game as he scored 38 points on 58.3% (14-24) shooting from the field.  The Cavaliers also got a terrific shooting performance from Kyrie Irving who is clearly playing hurt.  Irving is basically a spot-up shooter with his leg injuries, and he got a lot of open looks that he simply made.  Irving scored 25 points on 56.3% (9-16) shooting from the field, including 50% (3-6) shooting from three-point land.  But off that all-important Game 5 home win, and with the series going back to Chicago, we expect some regression from Cleveland in this game.  Cleveland is 5-1 versus Chicago when the Bulls are playing without their starting lineup.  Pau Gasol has missed the last two games in which the Cavaliers have won, but it’s not a good sign that Cleveland only won those games by 2 and 5 points.  Cleveland and Chicago are much closer teams than people realize, and that is especially true when the Bulls are playing with a complete lineup.

Chicago has played awful in their last two games.  The Bulls shot just 37.7% (66-175) from the field and 34.8% (16-46) from three-point land.  Off back-to-back poor efforts, we expect Chicago to bounce back strong, especially with this game on their home court.  The Bulls are 8-2 SU and ATS when playing at home off a road loss this season.  Those eight wins have come by an average of 9.8 points per game.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, and they were without Gasol for the last two games.  But Gasol is expected to be back on the court tonight, and the Bulls are 22-8 this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Chicago is in a terrific bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulls in Game 6 on Thursday night.                 

10* Play BULLS (-).

Memphis and Golden State have played all four games Under the total in this series.  But we expect a much different outcome tonight in Game 5 on Golden State’s home court.  Memphis has done a good job of controlling the pace in this series, but we saw the Warriors breakout in Game 4 on the Grizzlies’ home court.  They scored 101 points on only 80 total shots, so they were quite efficient.  Game 4 was also played at the quickest pace so far in this series as the teams combined to take 168 shots with 51 attempts coming from three-point land.  The Grizzlies and Warriors also combined for 42 fast-break points while 78 points were scored inside the paint.  Memphis’ offense simply shot the ball terribly in Game 4.  The Grizzlies shot just 37.5% (33-88) from the field and an ugly 22.2% (4-18) from three-point land.  Memphis has a much better offensive performance in them, especially since they’ve averaged 94.6 points per game against Golden State this season  That number increases to 97.3 points per game on the Warriors’ home court.

Golden State’s offense hasn't been themselves in this series so far.  But a lot of that can be attributed to Memphis’ strong defense.  However, the Grizzlies’ best defender, Tony Allen, will be playing thru a hamstring injury in tonight’s game.  Allen only played 15 minutes in Game 4 because of that injury, and without him on the court, the Warriors were extremely efficient on offense.  Allen will likely play tonight, but his effectiveness will be limited.  Golden State scored just 90 points in their last home game against Memphis; that was just the second time in 45 home games in which the Warriors failed to eclipse the century mark.  Golden State’s offense has been tremendous when playing at home off a road win this season.  In twelve such games, the Warriors have scored 98 points or more in every game while averaging a robust 110.8 points per game.  Those twelve games have had an average of 207.2 points scored per game, so those numbers indicate a high-scoring game tonight.  Golden State’s offense ranked #3 in offensive efficiency against Memphis’ defense this season, so the Warriors are due for a big breakout performance.  We expect a high-scoring Game 5 between Memphis and Golden State on Wednesday night.                            

9* Play OVER the total.

Los Angeles has won the last two games in this series in blowout fashion.  The Clippers won Game 3 by 25 points (124-99), and they won Game 4 by 33 points (128-95).  That’s two perfect games in a row by Los Angeles, but they both came on their home court.  Now the Clippers are greatly overvalued in the pointspread based on the results of the last two games.  In Games 1 and 2, Los Angeles was 7.5-point road underdogs in Houston; the Clippers are now 3-point road favorites in Game 5.  That creates a lot of value on the Rockets in this game, especially since it’s quite likely that the Clippers’ offense will regress sharply.  Los Angeles has scored 252 points in their last two games, and that type of scoring is simply unsustainable, even against a poor Houston defense.  The Clippers shot 52.5% (85-162) from the field and 43.3% (26-60) from three-point land in those two games.  Los Angeles also got to the free throw line a whopping 86 times.  The Clippers cannot repeat the production of the last two games, so they are quite vulnerable in tonight’s road game.

Houston has not played good at all in their last two games.  The Rockets shot just 40.4% (69-171) from the field and 37.7% (23-61) from three-point land.  They also shot a horrendous 54.1% (33-61) from the free throw line.  The Rockets’ offense is too good to play that bad in three consecutive games, especially since they will now play on their strong home court where they are 34-12 this season.  Houston is also in a strong situational spot while returning home off a road loss.  The Rockets are 6-4 SU in this situation, but they are a strong 9-1 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Three of the Rockets’ four losses in this situation have come by 2 points or less, and their other loss came by just 6 points.  We expect a much better performance from Houston tonight, so we’ll take the points with the Rockets in Game 5 on Tuesday night.      

9* Play ROCKETS (+).

Atlanta lost Game 3 in Washington on a last-second shot after coming back from a 21-point deficit.  The Hawks had three days of rest going into that game, and that extra rest was supposed to be a benefit.  However, it seems the extra rest was a detriment to Atlanta as they were out-scored 28-18 in the first quarter.  The Hawks didn’t get into a good rhythm until the four quarter when they out-scored the Wizards 35-18.  Atlanta also had to deal with the unexpected non-start of Paul Millsap; he was a late scratch due to being sick with the flu.  Millsap came off the bench and only played 22 minutes, so the Hawks used an unfamiliar lineup which also contributed to their uneven play.  Despite all the negatives, there were two big positives for the Hawks in that defeat.  Atlanta out-scored Washington 50-32 inside the paint, and they also had 25 fast-break points to just 11 fast-break points for the Wizards.  Atlanta will be more efficient in Game 4 as Millsap will be back in the starting lineup, and the Hawks will be in a better rhythm from the opening tip.  The Hawks’ offense ranked #3 in offensive efficiency against Washington’s defense this season, so we can expect a bounce back offensive performance from Atlanta tonight.

Washington got a total team effort in their 103-101 Game 3 win on Saturday.  The Wizards were playing without star point guard John Wall, but they got some good performances from their backups.  Five players scored 13 points or more, and overall, the Wizards shot 47.4% (37-78) from the field.  Washington will likely regress tonight, especially since their offense only ranked #16 in efficiency against Atlanta’s defense this season.  Wall will likely miss tonight’s game once again even though he is officially listed as a game-time decision.  Washington cannot sustain good play without Wall on the court, especially against a talented team like Atlanta.  Wall led the Wizards in scoring (17.6 ppg) and assists (10.0 apg) in the regular season and he has averaged 17.4 ppg and 12.6 apg in the playoffs this year.  The Wizards were -13.3 net points worse per 100 possessions when Wall was not on the court this season, so he is an incredibly important player in their lineup.  Atlanta overlooked Washington in Game 3 after winning Game 2 at home, but the Hawks woke up in the fourth quarter and they should carry that focus for a full game tonight, especially since they now trail 2-1 in this series.  The Hawks have yet to play their ‘A’ offensive game in this series, but when they do, they will run Washington off the court.  Atlanta is set to breakout big tonight, so lay the points with the Hawks in Game 4.

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Los Angeles crushed Houston in Game 3 on Friday night.  The Clippers won that game by 25 points (124-99), and they led by as many as 32 points while the Rockets’ biggest lead was only 2 points.  Los Angeles dominated from the opening tip, and they simply played a perfect game from start to finish.  The Clippers got a total team effort in that game as five players scored 12 points or more while Austin Rivers added 25 points off the bench.  Rivers shot an incredible 76.9% (10-13) from the floor, including 50% (3-6) from three-point land.  Overall, Los Angeles shot 55.4% (46-83) from the field and 44.8% (13-29) from three-point land.  The Clippers also hit 82.6% (19-23) from the free throw line.  Chris Paul played in Game 3 despite dealing with a hamstring injury; he only played 23 minutes and at times he didn’t look like himself.  Los Angeles got a complete team effort in Game 3, but they need CP3 to be 100% because the role players are unlikely to repeat their performances going forward. 

Houston did not play good at all in Game 3.  The Rockets shot just 39.8% (35-88) from the field and 33.3% (11-33) from three-point land.  They also shot a horrendous 58.1% (18-31) from the free throw line.  The Rockets’ offense is too good to play that bad again, especially since they are coming off a loss.  Houston has alternated wins and losses over their last six games, so if that trend continues tonight, the Rockets will be in position to steal a win in Los Angeles.  In the playoffs, Houston is a perfect 2-0 SU when playing off a loss.  The Rockets scored 218 points in those two games despite shooting just 43.8% (71-162) from the field, 26.3% (15-57) from three-point land, and 61% (61-100) from the free throw line.  Houston did not shoot the ball well in those games, and they still found a way to win.  If the Rockets play up to their offensive capabilities in tonight’s game, they’ll have a breakout performance.  But we don’t even need Houston to win since the pointspread is quite inflated after the results of Game 3.  We expect a much better performance from Houston tonight, so we’ll take the points with the Rockets in Game 4 on Sunday night.      

10* Play ROCKETS (+).

Atlanta bounced back strong at home in Game 2 with an easy 106-90 win over Washington.  The Hawks played a shorthanded Washington team as John Wall was a late scratch with a hand/wrist injury.  Wall will likely miss tonight’s game as well, and his absence is just too much for the Wizards to overcome.  Atlanta finally got some rest since the playoffs began; they’ve had three full days to get ready for Game 3.  “I think the break came for us at a good time,” Kyle Korver said.  “We had a really quick turnaround between series. We played the late game in New York. And I think I got to bed at 4:30 in the morning, came here and watched some film on Saturday and then played the early game on Sunday. And it’s been a couple of physical games in this series, so for us, for me and a lot of us, these couple of days in the middle have been great and you have to take advantage of them.”  Atlanta is a freshened team right now, and they are simply too good for Washington, especially with Wall not on the court.  The Hawks’ offense ranked #3 in offensive efficiency against Washington’s defense this season, so with good rest, we expect a big offensive performance from Atlanta tonight.

Washington got some good performances from their backups in Game 2, but their efforts weren’t nearly enough.  The Wizards got contributions from unlikely players as Drew Gooden and Otto Porter combined to score 20 points on 50% (8-16) shooting from the field, including 50% (2-4) shooting from three-point land.  That’s two consecutive games in which that duo has contributed; that’s simply a fluke.  In the last two games, Gooden and Porter have scored 45 points on 50% (15-30) shooting from the field, including 50% (6-12) shooting from three-point land.  Ramon Sessions, who started in place of John Wall, scored 21 points on 57.1% (8-14) shooting from the field, including 60% (3-5) shooting from three-point land.  His performance is unlikely to be duplicated.  Washington’s offense only ranked #16 in efficiency against Atlanta’s defense this season, so they are set to regress in this game, especially since they’ve been getting big contributions from role players.  We expect Atlanta to take control of this series with a convincing win in Game 3 on Saturday night.     

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Cleveland bounced back strong in Game 2 at home; the Cavaliers beat the Bulls 106-91.  LeBron James took over that game as he scored 33 points on 44.8% shooting from the field.  But off that must-win game, and the series now going to Chicago, we expect some regression from Cleveland in this game tonight.  The Cavaliers will get J.R. Smith back in the lineup, but they are not getting Kevin Love back this season.  Smith is another option for the Cavaliers, but he’s not a game changer, and his return will have a minimal impact.  Cleveland did go 3-1 versus Chicago in the regular season, but the results in those four games were irrelevant.  The Bulls played all four games without their true starting lineup, and leading scorer, Jimmy Butler (24.8 ppg), missed two of those games.  Cleveland and Chicago are much closer teams than people realize, and that is especially true with the Cavaliers missing Kevin Love.

Chicago played awful in Game 2 after controlling Game 1 from start to finish.  The Bulls shot just 40.5% (32-79) from the field and 31.8% (7-22) from three-point land.  Chicago never led on Wednesday, and they trailed by as many as 25 points.  Off that embarrassing performance, we expect Chicago to bounce back strong, especially with this game now on their home court.  The Bulls are 7-2 SU and ATS when playing at home off a road loss this season.  Those seven wins have come by an average of +10.7 points per game.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, but they have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 21-8 SU this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls' teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Chicago still has a lot of upside in the playoffs, and since they are in a terrific bounce back spot, we’ll lay the points with the Bulls in Game 3 on Friday night.

10* Play BULLS (-).

Los Angeles stole Game 1 in Houston on Monday night.  The Clippers played that game without point guard Chris Paul (hamstring), and they only had one day to get ready after beating San Antonio in Game 7 of their last series on Saturday night.  Los Angeles was in a terrible spot for that game, but they played much better than expected in a 117-101 win.  The Clippers got a total team effort in that game as all five starters scored 10 points or more while Jamal Crawford added 21 points off the bench.  Overall, Los Angeles shot 48.8% (41-84) from the field and 41.9% (13-31) from three-point land.  The Clippers also got to the free throw line 30 times in that game where they hit 73.3%, including a rare 6-11 performance from DeAndre Jordan.  Chris Paul is listed as a game-time decision, but these quotes are not optimistic that he will play.  “I pretty much doubt it,” Clippers head coach Doc Rivers said when asked about Paul playing.  “Right now, I doubt if he plays.”  Paul added: “It’s really tough, especially with the way that I play, there’s only one way I know how to play. It’s one of those things where you don’t want to make it worse than it already is.”  The Clippers surprised with their performance in Game 1, but we expect a major regression tonight, especially since Houston will not take Los Angeles lightly without Paul on the court.

Houston did not play good at all in Game 1.  The Rockets shot just 45.2% (38-84) from the field and 33.3% (11-33) from three-point land.  They also shot a horrendous 58.3% (14-24) from the free throw line.  The Rockets’ offense is too good to play that bad again, especially on their home court when coming off a loss.  Houston is a terrific 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS based on tonight’s posted pointspread when playing at home off a loss in their previous home game.  The Rockets have won those games by an average of 10.8 points per game.  Overall, Houston is 33-12 at home with a solid +5.4 point differential.  Houston’s offense averaged 110.7 points per game in their three previous home playoff games, so their performance in Game 1 against the Clippers was significantly worse than how they’ve playing.  Houston is in a great bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Rockets in Game 2 on Wednesday night.                 

9* Play ROCKETS (-).

Washington stole Game 1 in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon.  The Wizards rallied back from a 12-point deficit, and they out-scored the Hawks 23-15 in the fourth quarter to win 104-98.  Washington won the game at the free throw line as they were +8 points after getting 22 attempts to just 14 attempts for Atlanta.  The Wizards also got contributions from unlikely players as Drew Gooden and Otto Porter combined to score 22 points on 50% (7-14) shooting from the field, including 50% (4-8) shooting from three-point land.  Washington’s win also came at a price as John Wall injured his wrist and his hand, and Bradley Beal sprained his ankle.  The Wizards sound like they are satisfied with their win in Game 1:  “The main thing is you try to get one,” John Wall said.  “Most important is you try to get the first game, I feel like that’s the key game.  We know it’s going to be difficult, it’s going to be tougher than what it was in Game 1.  Those guys are probably not going to miss as many shots as they did in the fourth quarter.”  Washington’s only other win over Atlanta this season came when the Hawks rested all five of their starters.  The Hawks scored 105, 106, and 120 points in their three wins over the Wizards.  Those three wins came by an average of +14.7 points per game, so the Hawks will bounce back strong in Game 2.

Atlanta lost at home on Sunday afternoon for just the 7th time this season.  The Hawks have been flawless when playing at home off a previous home loss this season.  Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in this situation based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  The Hawks have won all six of those games by 7 points or more with their average win coming by +10.7 points per game.  Overall, Atlanta is 38-7 SU at home with an impressive +8.1 point differential in all games this season.  Atlanta’s offense averages 103.2 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 38% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  The Hawks’ offense ranked #3 in offensive efficiency against Washington’s defense this season, so their poor shooting performance (37.8% from the field and 34.2% from three) in Game 1 was a fluke.  Washington’s offense only ranked #16 in efficiency against Atlanta’s defense this season, so they are set to regress tonight.  Atlanta is in a great bounce back spot, we’ll lay the points with the Hawks in Game 2 on Tuesday night.                 

9* Play HAWKS (-).

Chicago got an easy opponent in the first round of the playoffs, and the Bulls won that series 4-2 over Milwaukee.  Chicago is obviously taking a big step-up in class against Cleveland in this series, but we expect the Bulls to give the Cavaliers a battle, especially in Game 1 on Monday night.  Chicago fought thru injuries all season, but they now have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 20-7 SU this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls' teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Now that they are healthy, they are also a much fresher team for the playoffs.  Chicago still has a lot of upside in the playoffs, and they will be a tough out for Cleveland in this series.

Cleveland also had an easy first round opponent, and the Cavaliers swept Boston in four games.  Like Chicago, the Cavaliers are now taking a big step-up in class, so they’ll need to play much better in this series.  Cleveland did go 3-1 versus Chicago in the regular season, but the results in those four games are irrelevant.  The Bulls played all four games without their 20-7 SU starting lineup, and leading scorer, Jimmy Butler (24.8 ppg), missed two of those games.  Cleveland will be the shorthanded team now as Kevin Love was lost to a season-ending shoulder injury during the series with Boston, and J.R. Smith is suspended for the first two games of this series for fighting against the Celtics.  That’s two starters and 24 points per game missing from Cleveland’s offense; their third and fourth ranked scorers per game this season.  The Cavaliers have not played a game in seven days either, and since they will be playing an unfamiliar lineup tonight, we expect Cleveland to struggle.  Chicago is an undervalued team right now, so we’ll take the points with the Bulls in Game 1 on Monday night.                 

10* Play BULLS (+).

Washington comes into this series with Atlanta off a 4-game sweep of the Toronto Raptors.  Because of that, the Wizards have not played in six days and whatever momentum they built up in those wins has been lost.  Washington is also taking a huge step-up in class against the Hawks in this series.  The Wizards controlled their series against a poor and undermanned Toronto team that had one of the worst defenses in the entire playoffs.  Now Washington must try and match those performances against an Atlanta team that was one of the best in the NBA this season.  Washington’s only win over Atlanta this season came when the Hawks rested all five of their starters.  The Hawks scored 105, 106, and 120 points in their three wins over the Wizards.  Those three wins came by an average of 14.7 points per game.  Washington’s playoff success so far has come as a surprise since they were just 13-15 SU after the All-Star break with a -2.4 point differential in those games.

Atlanta returns home off a 125-94 blowout win in Brooklyn on Friday night.  The Hawks have a lot of momentum now after back-to-back wins over the Nets, and they are in a much better rhythm than Washington.  The Hawks have been fantastic at home this season where they are 38-6 and own an impressive +8.4 point differential.  Atlanta’s offense averages 103.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  The Hawks’ offense ranked #3 in offensive efficiency against Washington’s defense this season, so Atlanta will score at ease in this game.  To compare, the Wizards’ offense only ranked #16 in efficiency against Atlanta’s defense this season.  Atlanta is the better team, and since they are in a good spot, we’ll lay the points with the Hawks in Game 1 on Sunday afternoon.                 

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Los Angeles and San Antonio have played three games Over the total and three game Under the total in this series.  The Over is 2-0 after playing an Under in the previous game; those two games had 218 and 219 points scored.  The Spurs and Clippers went Under the total in Game 6 in a 102-96 Los Angeles win.  We expect the above pattern to repeat itself, so a high-scoring Game 7 is on tap.  Overall, the Clippers and Spurs have played at a fast pace in this series.  The teams have combined to take 1,013 shots with 278 attempts from three-point land.  That’s an average of 169 shot per game, including 46 attempts per game from three-point land.  Los Angeles’ offense ranked #1 in offensive efficiency against San Antonio’s defense this season, and the Clippers have scored 102 points or more in five of the six games in this series.  Los Angeles scored 107 points in each of their three home games against the Spurs. 

San Antonio’s offense was not good in Game 6.  The Spurs scored just 96 points on 43.4% shooting (36-83) from the field.  San Antonio did shoot 42.9% (12-28) from three-point land, but that is extremely misleading.  Marco Belinelli shot an incredible 63.6% (7-11) from beyond the arc on his own which means the rest of the team shot just 29.4% (5-17) from three-point land.  San Antonio was also terrible from the free throw line as they only hit 57.1% (12-21) in Game 6.  The Spurs’ starting five did not contribute at all as they scored a total of 50 points on 37.3% shooting (19-51) from the field and 25% (2-8) shooting from three-point land.  San Antonio’s top scorers will bounce back with much better performances in this game just as they did in Game 2 after only scoring 92 points in their Game 1 loss.  We expect a high-scoring Game 7 between San Antonio and Los Angeles on Saturday night.                            

10* Play OVER the total.

Chicago cruised to an easy 3-0 series lead, but since then, the Bulls have lost back-to-back games.  But we expect a peak performance by Chicago tonight, especially since they played well below their abilities in the last two games.  The Bulls’ offense was terrible in their last game as they scored just 88 points on a terrible 34.4% (31-90) shooting from the field and a woeful 18.2% (4-22) shooting from three-point land.  Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler shot a combined 24.4% (10-41), including a poor 18.2% (2-11) from three-point land.  Chicago’s offense will play much better tonight, especially coming off two consecutive losses.  The Bulls are 19-7 this season when their original starters play together.  Chicago is 6-3 SU versus the Bucks this season with all six wins coming by 7 points or more.  Chicago’s defense held Milwaukee to just 71, 86, 87, 91, 82, and 95 points in regulation time in those wins.  

Milwaukee has won the last two games in this series, but the Bucks got some unlikely results to win those games.  In Game 4, the Bucks shot 40.9% (9-22) from three-point land with three players on their second unit scoring 10 points or more.  In Game 5, Milwaukee went a perfect 100% (16-16) from the free throw line while Michael Carter-Williams scored 22 points on 66.7% (10-15) shooting from the field.  All of the above offensive accomplishments by the Bucks were all anomalies that will not be repeated in tonight’s game.  Milwaukee owns the worst offense in the playoffs based on efficiency numbers, and they won Game 4 and Game 5 despite scoring a total of 186 points on a terrible 40.7% (70-172) shooting from the field.  Milwaukee simply won by default, and that won’t happen tonight since Chicago will come with a focused effort off back-to-back losses.  The Bucks are just 13-21 SU since the All-Star break; their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have declined sharply.  Chicago is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulls in Game 6 on Thursday night.                     

10* Play BULLS (-).

Brooklyn won both games on their home court to tie this series at 2 games apiece.  The Nets will now travel to Atlanta to play the all important Game 5 on Wednesday night.  Brooklyn is also 4-0 ATS in this series, but that’s somewhat misleading considering the Nets trailed by double-digit margins in three of those four games.  In fact, Brooklyn trailed by 12 points or more in every playoff game except Game 3 when the Hawks simply played terrible on offense.  The Hawks also led by at least 8+ points entering the fourth quarter in three of the four playoff games so far, including their Game 4 overtime loss on Monday.  Atlanta will be less likely to blow another lead at home tonight.  The Nets’ success in this series has come as a surprise considering Brooklyn went just 16-13 SU after the All-Star break, getting out-scored by -1.3 points per game.  The Nets’ defense was absolutely terrible in those games as they allowed 109.3 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta is 6-2 SU against the Nets this season while averaging a whopping 108.7 points per game in those wins.  Brooklyn lost those games by an average of 13.5 points per game.

Atlanta returns home off back-to-back losses in Brooklyn, and we expect the Hawks to play their best game of the series tonight.  Atlanta has been fantastic at home this season where they are 37-6 SU and own an impressive +8.5 point differential.  Atlanta’s offense averages 103.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  The Hawks are also in a good situational spot for tonight’s game.  Atlanta is 8-4 SU when playing at home off a road loss this season.  The Hawks have won all eight of those games by 7 points or more with their average win coming by +13.8 points per game.  Atlanta has faced Brooklyn in this exact situation twice this season; the Hawks won both games by a combined +39 points.  Atlanta is the superior team, and since they are in a good bounce back spot, we’ll lay the points with the Hawks in Game 5 on Wednesday night.                 

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Milwaukee salvaged a win in Game 4, and they needed the full 48 minutes to get that win as they won it on a last second basket.  But the Bucks only extended their season one game as there’s little chance Milwaukee wins again tonight.  The Bucks are just 12-21 SU since the All-Star break during which time their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have declined sharply.  Milwaukee won games this season with their defense, but that unit is playing poorly, and the Bucks simply do not have the offense to overcome it.  Milwaukee owns the worst offense in the playoffs based on efficiency numbers, so the Bucks are simply up against it.  The Bucks won Game 4 despite scoring just 92 points on a terrible 39.1% (34-87) shooting from the field.  Milwaukee simply won by default, and that won’t happen tonight since Chicago will come with a focused effort off that loss.

Chicago’s loss in Game 4 snapped their 7-game winning streak, but we expect the Bulls to bounce right back with a big win tonight.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, but they now have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 19-6 SU this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls' teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Now that they are healthy, they are also a much fresher team in the playoffs.  Chicago has a lot of upside, and they’ve dominated Milwaukee.  The Bulls are 6-2 SU versus the Bucks this season with all six wins coming by 7 points or more.  Chicago’s defense held Milwaukee to just 71, 86, 87, 91, 82, and 95 points in regulation time in those wins.  The Bulls are simply the superior team and they want to wrap this series up tonight, especially since their next opponent (Cleveland) has already advanced.  We’ll lay the points with Chicago in Game 5 on Monday night.                     

9* Play BULLS (-).

Atlanta and Brooklyn are 3-0 to the Under in this series so far, and because of that, the oddsmakers have adjusted the total way too much for Game 4.  The two games in Atlanta had posted totals of 205 and 203 while Game 3 in Brooklyn opened at 201 and closed at 199.  With the first three games all being low-scoring, the Game 4 total is several baskets less than the Game 1 total, and that’s simply too much of an adjustment.  Atlanta has played with a much quicker pace in their last two games, and after a terrible performance on Saturday in Game 3, look for the Hawks’ offense to be at their best tonight.  Despite the low-scoring results, the Hawks and Nets have increased their pace in each of the first three games, going from 154 shots in Game 1 to 168 shots in Game 2 to 173 shots in Game 3.  The teams have combined to take 495 shots with 159 attempts from three-point land.  The teams combined for 65 fast-break points, and 242 of the 552 total points scored have come from inside the paint.

Brooklyn’s offense has scored 91 points or more in all three games despite shooting poorly.  The Nets have shot just 42.7% (103-241) from the field and a terrible 29.4% (20-68) from three-point land in this series.  Brooklyn is getting a lot of easy baskets inside the paint as 122 of their 274 total points scored have come without much resistance.  Atlanta’s offense was horrendous in Game 3 as the Hawks scored just 83 points which is 19.2 points below their season average.  The Hawks shot just 35.6% (32-90) from the field and 20% (6-30) from three-point land on Saturday afternoon.  Atlanta’s offense is too good to play that bad again, especially against the Nets since the Hawks ranked #1 in offensive efficiency against Brooklyn’s defense this season.  “I hated our game Saturday,” Jeff Teague said.  “I hated the way I played.  I think the whole team hated the way we played.”  Atlanta plays their best at a fast pace, and off a loss, the Hawks will go up-tempo and their offense will be much better.  Look for a high-scoring game between Atlanta and Brooklyn in Game 4 on Monday night.                      

10* Play OVER the total (Hawks/Nets).

Los Angeles was thoroughly embarrassed by San Antonio in Game 3; the Spurs won that game by 27 points (100-73).  That loss can be forgiven since the Clippers were playing with a hangover from their blown win in Game 2.  Los Angeles had a 2-point lead with the ball with less than 15 seconds left to play when Blake Griffin turned the ball over.  That miscue allowed San Antonio to tie the game and send it to overtime; the Spurs eventually won 111-107.  Once the Spurs jumped out to an early lead in Game 3, it was obvious that the Clippers were going to get blown out.  Los Angeles’ offense was awful in that game as they shot just 34.1% (29-85) from the field and 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land.  The Clippers scored just 11 points in the third quarter which was their lowest point total in a quarter this season.  Los Angeles’ offense is too good to play that bad again, especially against the Spurs since the Clippers ranked #1 in offensive efficiency against San Antonio’s defense this season.    

San Antonio played a perfect Game 3 after escaping Los Angeles with a fortunate win in Game 2.  The Spurs shot 52.6% (40-76) from the field and 41.7% (10-24) from three-point land on Friday night.  San Antonio got extreme contributions from a pair of unlikely sources in that game.  Kawhi Leonard, who is a defensive specialist, scored 32 points on an incredible 72.2% (13-18) shooting from the field and 60% (3-5) shooting from three-point land.  Reserve Boris Diaw scored 15 point on 62.5% (5-8) shooting off the bench.  Leonard and Diaw led the Spurs in scoring, and only Danny Green (11 points) scored more than 9 points in that game.  San Antonio got big games from role players, so the blowout win was more of an anomaly than anything else.  These two teams are much closer than the misleading 27-point margin in the last game.  With Los Angeles off back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing effort in their last game, we expect a strong bounce back performance from the Clippers in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon.                         

10* Play CLIPPERS (+).

Los Angeles and San Antonio could very well be 3-0 to the Under in this series had it not been for a fluky overtime result in Game 2.  Despite the low-scoring games in regulation time, the Clippers and Spurs have played at a fast pace in this series.  We’ll toss the results from Game 3 because that game was not truly played as San Antonio never trailed and led by as many as 37 points.  In Games 1 and 2, the teams combined to take 354 shots with 105 attempts from three-point land.  The teams combined for 63 fast-break points, and 184 of the 417 total points scored came from inside the paint.  Los Angeles’ offense was awful in Game 3 as they shot just 34.1% (29-85) from the field and 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land.  The Clippers scored just 11 points in the third quarter which was their lowest point total in a quarter this season.  Los Angeles’ offense is too good to play that bad again, especially against the Spurs since the Clippers ranked #1 in offensive efficiency against San Antonio’s defense this season.

San Antonio’s offense was good in Game 3.  The Spurs shot 52.6% (40-76) from the field and 41.7% (10-24) from three-point land on Friday night.  San Antonio got extreme contributions from a pair of unlikely sources in that game.  Kawhi Leonard, who is a defensive specialist, scored 32 points on an incredible 72.2% (13-18) shooting from the field and 60% (3-5) shooting from three-point land.  Reserve Boris Diaw scored 15 point on 62.5% (5-8) shooting off the bench.  Leonard and Diaw led the Spurs in scoring, and only Danny Green (11 points) scored more than 9 points in that game.  San Antonio got big games from role players, so their top scorers will bounce back with much better performances in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between Los Angeles and San Antonio in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon.                            

9* Play OVER the total.

Chicago is up 3-0 on Milwaukee in this series, and we expect the Bulls to get the series sweep tonight.  Chicago comes into tonight on a 7-game winning streak; they’ve won those games by an average of 11.3 points per game.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, but they have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 19-5 this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Now that they are healthy, they are also a much fresher team in the playoffs.  Chicago has a lot of upside, and they’ve dominated Milwaukee.  The Bulls are 6-1 SU versus the Bucks this season with all six wins coming by 7 points or more.  Chicago’s defense held Milwaukee to just 71, 86, 87, 91, 82, and 95 points in regulation time in those wins. 

Milwaukee put everything they had into Game 3, and it will be difficult for them to bounce back tonight considering how they lost their last game.  The Bucks built an 18-point lead in the second quarter before Chicago stormed back and led by 8 points with just 1:37 left in the game.  Milwaukee closed on a 9-1 run to take the game into the first overtime.  Milwaukee ultimately lost 113-106 in double overtime; a defeat that basically ended their season.  The Bucks are now just 11-21 SU since the All-Star break; their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have declined sharply.  Milwaukee has won games this season with their defense, but that unit is playing poorly, and the Bucks simply do not have the offense to overcome it.  Milwaukee owns the worst offense in the playoffs based on efficiency numbers, so the Bucks are simply up against it.  We’ve won with Best Bet winners on Chicago in the first three games, and we’ll come right back and lay the points with the Bulls in Game 4 on Saturday night.                     

10* Play BULLS (-).

Toronto and Washington switch locations for Game 3 of this series on Friday night.  The Wizards won both games as road underdogs in Toronto, so they return home up 2-0 on the Raptors.  Toronto and Washington are similar teams, so the results of the first two games do not indicate that the Wizards are the superior team.  Since the All-Star break, Toronto actually played better basketball than Washington even though the teams had similar records.  The Raptors went 13-16 SU with a -0.2 point differential.  The Wizards went 13-15 SU with a -2.4 point differential.  Those numbers show that Toronto was slightly the better team, and in a game they must have, we expect the Raptors to bring their best effort tonight.  “We understand we’re pretty much playing with our backs against the wall,” said Patrick Patterson.  “Plain and simple, black and white, we cannot lose Game 3.”  Kyle Lowry echoed those thoughts:  “It’s a must-win for us.  One win.  That’s what we’ve got to focus on.  One win, one game, one possession at a time.”

Washington is not in the best of spots for tonight’s game even though they are playing at home with a commanding 2-0 series lead.  As mentioned above, the Wizards won the first two games straight-up as underdogs.  But now they are laying a handful of points into a desperate team that is sure to bring their best effort.  Washington’s offense shot incredibly well in Game 2, but that only sets them up to regress tonight.  The Wizards shot 53.2% (42-79) from the field and 47.6% (10-21) from three-point land.  Washington also got to the free throw line 34 times in Game 2.  The Wizards had five players score 10 points or more in that game, and the 117 points scored was their third highest point total of the season.  After scoring 110 points or more this season, Washington has gone just 5-6 SU in their next game, averaging only 96.9 points per game.  Prior to losing Game 1 and Game 2, Toronto was 3-0 versus Washington this season with the Raptors’ average win coming by 8.3 points per game.  We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Toronto in Game 3 on Friday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Golden State is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA, and the Warriors travel to New Orleans with a 2-0 series lead.  But neither game was all that easy for Golden State as they only won by 10 and 7 points while their offense scored just 97 and 106 points.  The Warriors just played in New Orleans on April 7th, and they lost that game 103-100.  Golden State was only a 4.5-point road favorite in that game, but now they are laying more points on the same court in a playoff game.  That doesn't make much sense, and there is value playing against Golden State in this spot.  The Warriors haven’t played a road game since that loss in New Orleans; they’ve been at home for more than two weeks.  That makes tonight's spot a little tougher for the Warriors since their routine of being home has been disrupted.  Golden State has struggled in New Orleans this season, losing their last trip and needing overtime to win back in December.

New Orleans was in excellent form during the second half of the season.  The Pelicans went 18-11 SU after the All-Star break with one of those wins coming against the Warriors.  New Orleans has been tremendous when playing at home off a road loss this season.  In fact, the Pelicans are an incredible 12-1 SU and a perfect 13-0 ATS based on tonight’s posted line in this exact situational spot.  Their only straight-up loss came by just 2 points and the Pelicans are a perfect 3-0 SU as a home underdog in this situation.  Overall, New Orleans is 28-13 SU at home this season where they own a +4.1 point differential.  The Pelicans’ offense averages 101.7 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land at home.  Golden State’s defense allows 101 points per game on the road, so the Pelicans’ offense will play much better tonight than they did in the first two games of this series.  We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points in Game 3 on Thursday night.

9* Play PELICANS (+).

Chicago is up 2-0 on Milwaukee in this series, and we expect the Bulls to win once again tonight.  Chicago comes into tonight on a 6-game winning streak; they’ve won those games by an average of 12 points per game.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, but they have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are now 18-5 SU this season when their original starters play together.  There is a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls' teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Now that they are healthy, they are also a much fresher team in the playoffs.  Chicago has a lot of upside, and they’ve dominated Milwaukee.  The Bulls are 5-1 SU versus the Bucks this season with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  Chicago’s defense held Milwaukee to just 71, 86, 87, 91, and 82 points in those wins. 

Milwaukee’s effectiveness wore off as the season went on, and their play since the All-Star break has been less than impressive.  The Bucks are now just 11-20 SU since the break; their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have declined sharply.  Overall, Milwaukee’s defense finished second in efficiency while holding opponents to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions.  But since the All-Star break, the Bucks have dropped significantly, allowing 103 points per 100 possessions.  Milwaukee has won games this season with their defense, but that unit is now playing poorly, and the Bucks simply do not have the offense to overcome it.  Milwaukee owns the worst offense in the playoffs based on efficiency numbers, so the Bucks are simply up against it.  We’ve won with Best Bet winners on Chicago in the first two games, and we’ll come right back and lay the points with the Bulls in Game 3 on Thursday night.

10* Play BULLS (-).

Brooklyn only lost Game 1 by 7 points (99-92), but that was a misleading final score.  The Nets were thoroughly dominated by Atlanta despite what the final score indicated.  Brooklyn trailed by double digits for the majority of the game, and the Nets were never a threat to win.  After the All-Star break, Brooklyn went 16-13 SU, but the Nets were actually out-scored by 1.3 points per game.  The Nets’ defense was absolutely terrible in those games as they allowed 109.3 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 against the Nets this season while averaging a whopping 111 points per game.  Brooklyn was non-competitive in three of those games while losing by 23, 11, and 32 points.  On the road, Brooklyn owns a -3.5 point differential, so clearly, Brooklyn is not a playoff caliber team.

Atlanta started Game 1 off strong as they out-scored Brooklyn 32-20 in the first quarter.  The Hawks then got comfortable with their double-digit lead and allowed the Nets to hang around.  Atlanta’s offense actually had a poor shooting game on Sunday night.  The Hawks shot just 43% (34-79) from the field and 33.3% (10-30) from three-point land.  Despite that, Atlanta still led by double digits for the majority of the game.  Atlanta’s offense should have a much better offensive game tonight, and that spells major trouble for Brooklyn.  As noted above, Atlanta has dominated Brooklyn this season.  The Hawks have also been fantastic at home this season where they are 36-6 SU and own an impressive +8.5 point differential.  Atlanta’s offense averages 103.4 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  Atlanta is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Hawks in Game 2 on Wednesday night.

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Washington and Toronto played in an ugly Game 1 on Saturday afternoon.  The Wizards won 93-86, and that game went to overtime.  Both teams played terrible offense, but we expect a totally different game tonight.  Despite the low-scoring game, the pace was quick with the two teams combining to take 191 shots with 50 attempts from three-point land.  The teams combined for 19 fast-break points, and 96 of the 179 total points scored came from inside the paint.  Washington’s offense was terrible as they shot just 39.4% (39-99) from the field and 28.6% (6-21) from three-point land.  The Wizards only hit 60% (9-15) from the free throw line as well.  Washington’s two best scorers, John Wall and Bradley Beal, combined to shoot just 26.8% (11-41) from the floor, including an ugly 11.1% (1-9) from three-point land.  Washington’s shooting will be much improved in Game 2, especially since Toronto plans on playing at a quicker pace.        

Toronto’s offense was worse than Washington’s in Game 1.  The Raptors shot an ugly 38% (35-92) from the field and an atrocious 20.7% (6-29) from three-point land.  Their top three scorers of DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, and Lou Williams combined to score just 32 points while shooting 26.1% (12-46) from the floor, including an ugly 15.4% (2-13) from three-point land.  Toronto is looking to play faster in this game: “Our tempo has to be different,” Kyle Lowry said.  “I need to start the game off with a faster pace, getting up and down a little bit more.”  The Raptors have averaged 102.3 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Their poor offensive performance in Game 1 was an aberration, and the Raptors will score the ball much better tonight.  We expect a high-scoring game between Washington and Toronto in Game 2 on Tuesday night.                            

10* Play OVER the total.

Milwaukee is down 0-1 in this series, and after tonight we expect the Bucks to return home down 0-2.  Chicago easily cashed a Best Bet winner for us in Game 1 when they beat Milwaukee 103-91 on Saturday night.  We’ll come right back with the Bulls for all the same reasons.  Milwaukee’s effectiveness wore off as the season went on, and their play since the All-Star break has been less than impressive.  The Bucks are now just 11-19 SU since the break; their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have declined sharply.  Overall, Milwaukee’s defense finished second in efficiency while holding opponents to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions.  But since the All-Star break, the Bucks have dropped significantly, allowing 103 points per 100 possessions.  Milwaukee has won games this season with their defense, but that unit is playing poorly, and the Bucks simply do not have the offense to overcome it.  Milwaukee owns the worst offense in the playoffs based on efficiency numbers, so the Bucks are simply up against it.          

Chicago comes into tonight on a 5-game winning streak; they’ve won those games by an average of 12.6 points per game.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, but they have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 17-5 this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Now that they are healthy, they are also a much fresher team in the playoffs.  Chicago has a lot of upside, and they’ve dominated Milwaukee.  The Bulls are 4-1 SU versus the Bucks this season with all four wins coming by 8 points or more.  Chicago’s defense held Milwaukee to just 71, 86, 87, and 91 points in those wins.  Chicago is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulls in Game 2 on Monday night.                 

10* Play BULLS (-).

Brooklyn has not had a good season at all.  The Nets come into tonight’s game with a losing record as they went just 38-44 during the regular season.  Brooklyn needed to win their final game of the season just to make the playoffs.  Since the All-Star break, Brooklyn has gone 16-13 SU, but the Nets were actually out-scored by 1.3 points per game.  The Nets’ defense was absolutely terrible in those games as they allowed 109.3 points per 100 possessions.  That poor defense is going to get roasted in this series by the sharpshooting Hawks, so Brooklyn’s bad defensive play is going to continue.  The Hawks went a perfect 4-0 against the Nets this season while averaging a whopping 114 points per game.  Brooklyn was noncompetitive in three of those games while losing by 23, 11, and 32 points.  Overall this season, the Nets own a -2.9 point differential.  On the road, Brooklyn owns a -3.5 point differential.  Clearly, Brooklyn is not a playoff caliber team, and they will get exposed in Game 1 against the Hawks tonight.       

Atlanta had the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference locked up for awhile, and the Hawks were simply playing out the regular season string while waiting for the playoffs.  Atlanta was in some tough scheduling and situational spots down the stretch, and their poor play reflected that.  The Hawks closed the season on a 3-game losing streak, and because of that, we know we’re going to get Atlanta’s ‘A’ game tonight in Game 1.  The Hawks get the perfect match-up against the Nets to get back to their winning ways.  As noted above, Atlanta simply dominated Brooklyn this season, and we expect more of the same tonight.  The Hawks have been fantastic at home this season where they are 35-6 and own an impressive +8.5 point differential.  Atlanta’s offense averages 103.5 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  Atlanta is the superior team in a very good spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Hawks in Game 1 on Sunday night.                 

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Milwaukee surprised many by making the playoffs this season.  The Bucks are a young team that came together quickly at the beginning of the season, and they caught a lot of teams by surprise.  But as the season went on, Milwaukee’s effectiveness wore off, and their play since the All-Star break has been less than impressive.  The Bucks went just 11-18 SU after the break as their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers declined sharply.  Overall, Milwaukee’s defense finished second in efficiency while holding opponents to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions.  But since the All-Star break, the Bucks have dropped significantly, allowing 103 points per 100 possessions.  Milwaukee has won games this season with their defense, but that unit is playing poorly, and the Bucks simply do not have the offense to overcome it.  Milwaukee owns the worst offense in the playoffs based on efficiency numbers, so the Bucks are up against it, especially in Game 1 against the Bulls.          

Chicago was gearing up for the playoffs as the regular season winded down; the Bulls won their last four games by an average of 12.8 points per game.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, but they will have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 16-5 this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Now that they are healthy, they are also a much fresher team coming into the playoffs.  Chicago has a lot of upside going into the playoffs, and they get a good match-up against Milwaukee in the first round.  The Bulls went 3-1 SU versus the Bucks this season with all three wins coming by 8 points or more.  Chicago’s defense held Milwaukee to just 71, 86, and 87 points in those wins.  Chicago is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulls in Game 1 on Saturday night.                 

10* Play BULLS (-).

Atlanta and Chicago are in the playoffs, but only the Hawks know their seed.  Atlanta will be the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but the Bulls will either be the #3 or #4 seed depending on tonight’s results.  Chicago will retain the #3 seed with a win, however this game won’t be as easy as perceived since Atlanta will be looking to win after losing their last two games.  The Hawks do not want to head into the playoffs on a 3-game losing streak, so they will play this game with purpose.  Atlanta’s offense has been terrific all season; the Hawks average 102.8 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land.  Atlanta’s current issue has been defense as they’ve allowed 108 points or more in three of their last four games.  The Hawks have been playing with pace lately, and tonight’s game will be another up-tempo game because the Bulls have been playing exactly the same way.               

Chicago has played at a quick tempo in their last three games; the Bulls have taken 91, 90, and 88 shots in those games.  With Derrick Rose back on the court, Chicago’s offensive identity has changed.  “It’s one of his strengths,” Chicago head coach Tom Thibodeau said of Rose’s ability to push the ball up the court.  “He’s got the power, quickness, speed. So what that does for your offense is it gets you easy scoring opportunities.”  Rose agrees: “I’m just trying to push myself, remind myself every time I catch it just to put pressure on the defense. So just try and play the way I would normally play in the playoffs, and get my conditioning underneath me at the same time.”  Chicago has scored 103 points in three of their last four games, including 227 total points in their last two games.  We expect a high-scoring game between Atlanta and Chicago on Wednesday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Washington is locked into the #5 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but the Wizards aren’t gearing down.  The Wizards will play their starters in Indiana tonight, and the team is looking forward to this game since the Pacers ended Washington’s season in Game 6 of their playoff series last year.  Washington has a chance to keep Indiana out of the playoffs with a win tonight; the Pacers need to win to hold onto the eighth and final spot going into tomorrow night.  “We got a rivalry with them,” John Wall said.  “We feel like we owe them from last year.”  Would keeping a rival out of the playoffs be satisfying for the Wizards?  “Yep,” Wall said.  “Like teams spoiled it for me my first three years.”  Head coach Randy Wittman wants his team to fine tune their play before the playoffs begin:  “We have to approach it like a playoff game like we have done these last six and seven games. We have to come out ready to go and be aggressive.”  Washington is 5-1 SU during their last six games with their lone loss coming in Brooklyn without John Wall on the court.

Indiana is fighting for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  The Pacers come into tonight on a 5-game winning streak, but four of those wins have come against bad teams that will miss the playoffs.  Indiana’s recent wins have come against Charlotte, Miami, New York, and Detroit.  The Pacers are now playing a team that is better than they are, and their opponent has a lot of motivation to win.  All three of this season’s previous meetings between Washington and Indiana have been close with the margins of victory all coming by 7 points or less.  Overall, the Wizards are 2-1 SU versus the Pacers this season with Indiana’s lone win coming by just 2 points (103-101).  We expect another close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Washington in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play WIZARDS (+).

Chicago is gearing up for the playoffs, and the Bulls still have a lot to play for.  Chicago is battling for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference, so their last two games of the regular season are quite important.  Chicago has dealt with injuries all season, but they finally have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 16-5 SU this season when their original starters play together.  Chicago has won their last two games, and the game they may look back at as being their turning point came last Thursday night in Miami.  The Bulls trailed that game by 19 points (51-32) at the half before dominating the second half; they out-scored Miami by 30 points (57-27) en route to an 89-78 win.  Chicago then beat Philadelphia on Saturday night, and we expect the Bulls to continue their winning ways tonight against the Nets.

Brooklyn is fighting for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  But the Nets have been erratic in their recent play, and their wins have come against teams either resting or missing their best players.  The Nets have alternated wins and losses over their last six games, and since they lost their last game, the pattern would indicate a win tonight.  However, Brooklyn is now playing a Chicago team that is significantly better than the Nets are, and the Bulls have a lot of motivation to win.  Brooklyn’s recent wins have come against Washington without John Wall, Portland without LeMarcus Aldridge, and Toronto without Kyle Lowry.  The Nets have lost to the Hawks twice by a combined 35 points, and Brooklyn lost yesterday afternoon in Milwaukee by 23 points (96-73).  Chicago is the superior team, so we’ll lay the short points in this game on Monday night.                   

10* Play BULLS (-).

Dallas is already locked into the #7 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, so the Mavericks are basically waiting for the regular season to end.  Dallas comes into this game off a double overtime win in Denver on Friday night.  The Mavericks scored 144 points in that game, but they also gave up 143 points.  In fact, Dallas was out-scored 91-71 by the Nuggets over the final 34 minutes of the game.  Dallas had seven players play 28 minutes or more while all four starters played 29 minutes or more, including two starters that played more than 37 minutes.  The Mavericks are a thin team right now as they are nursing injuries, and head coach Rick Carlisle has already hinted that he will rest the majority of his starters either tonight or tomorrow night in Utah.  Regardless of who plays tonight for Dallas, this is not a good situational spot for them, especially since they are laying points on the road.  The Mavericks were actually underdogs in that Denver game, so the line reversal here gives us a lot of value on the Lakers.  

Los Angeles is playing out the string, but the Lakers are actually playing with some motivation.  Los Angeles is playing a young team right now, and those guys are trying to prove themselves.  The Lakers are playing with a lot of energy and pace, and those factors alone give them a good shot in this game.  Los Angeles comes in with some confidence as well after they beat Minnesota 106-98 on Friday night.  The Lakers had tremendous balance inside and out on the perimeter as they scored 52 points in the paint while shooting 39.1% (9-23) from three-point land.  The Lakers’ current lineup is also very good on the glass; they had 46 rebounds, including a whopping 14 offensive rebounds in their last game.  That will be a major factor in this game since Dallas is a terrible rebounding team; they’ve been out-rebounded 254-215 over their last five games.  The last two meetings have been decided by 7 points or less, and since Dallas has nothing to play for, we expect another close game.  We’ll take the points with the Lakers in this game on Sunday night.                     

10* Play LAKERS (+).

Toronto already has a playoff spot locked up, and the Raptors will either finish with the #3 or #4 seed in the Eastern Conference depending how the rest of the season plays out.  The Raptors will have home court advantage at least in the first round regardless, so Toronto wins are not that important right now.  Toronto is playing their third consecutive road game, and they are doing it in four nights.  The Raptors have won their first two games on this trip, including last night’s 101-99 win over Orlando in the final seconds.  Getting that win will come at a cost for Toronto since they had to play their starters longer minutes than intended.  Point guard Kyle Lowry returned after missing seven games with an injury, and he played 33 minutes last night.  “For us, next week is way more important than right now,” Toronto head coach Dwane Casey said.  “We wanted to get him some run, but we didn’t want him going 33 minutes and that was a major concern going down the stretch. That was the only negative, that he played more than we wanted.”  Casey will play it conservative with Lowry tonight, and it wouldn’t surprise if Toronto mails this game in based on the situation.

Miami comes in off an embarrassing 89-78 home loss to Chicago on Thursday night.  The final score doesn’t look bad, but Miami blew a 19-point halftime lead.  The Heat scored just 8 total points in the third quarter, and 27 total points in the second half.  Off that pathetic performance, we expect Miami to bounce back with a strong effort tonight.  Since acquiring point guard Goran Dragic at the All-Star break, Miami has played extremely well at home following a home loss in their previous game.  The Heat are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in this situation as their offense scored 104 points or more in every game while winning the three games by 6, 17, and 11 points.  On the flip side, Toronto has won back-to-back road games three other times this season.  The Raptors have fallen flat in their next game all three times, losing by 14, 5, and 7 points.  Miami is playing for their playoff lives, and reports say the Heat had a spirited practice on Friday in preparation for tonight’s game.  Miami’s offense has been significantly better at home despite their poor showing in their last game; they’ve scored 104 points or more in six of their last eight home games.  Miami is set for a big performance while Toronto is set to regress, so we’ll lay the points with the Heat in this game on Saturday night.                     

10* Play HEAT (-).

Phoenix’s season will come to an end next Tuesday night after the Suns were eliminated from the playoffs with their loss in Dallas on Wednesday night.  The Suns put everything they had into that game, and they looked like a winner late in the fourth quarter.  Phoenix led 100-97 before Dallas ended the game on a 10-4 run.  The Suns were playing a disinterested Dallas team that is locked into the #7 seed, and Phoenix still couldn’t win.  Phoenix went into that game off an embarrassing 96-69 loss in Atlanta the night before, and off the tough loss, this is a terrible situational spot for the Suns.  Now with nothing to play for, we expect a flat effort from the Suns, especially since they will be without two starters, Brandon Knight and Alex Len who are both out with injuries.  Phoenix is a pure jump shooting team from the perimeter, but tonight they will face a New Orleans defense that ranks #1 in the NBA in 3-point defense since January 1st.  The Suns will have a hard time scoring consistent points in this game. 

New Orleans returns home off an embarrassing 110-74 loss in Memphis on Wednesday night.  The Pelicans were in a flat spot for that game after they beat Golden State 103-100 as home underdogs the night before.  The Pelicans have been tremendous when playing at home off a road loss.  In fact, New Orleans is an incredible 11-1 SU in this exact situational spot.  New Orleans’ offense has been tremendous at home this season as they are averaging 101.8 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land.  New Orleans’ defense has also been fantastic recently as they've held five of their last eight opponents to 95 points or less.  New Orleans is fighting for a playoff spot, and since Phoenix is in a terrible spot, we’ll lay the points with the Pelicans in this game on Friday night.                     

10* Play PELICANS (-).

Miami and Chicago have played twice this season with the teams splitting those games; each won on the other’s home court.  Both of those games also went Under the total with the teams combining for just 168 points and 180 points.  However, the teams were totally different for those two games that were played back in December and January, and with the current makeup and team tendencies, we expect a much higher scoring game in Miami tonight.  Chicago played last night in Orlando and the Bulls lost 105-103 after blowing a 15-point lead.  The Bulls welcomed Derrick Rose back to the court, but with this being a back-to-back set, it’s unknown how many minutes Rose will play.  Whether he plays or not has no bearing on this game.  Chicago’s current issues are all on the defensive end, especially on the road.  In their last seven road games, the Bulls have allowed 101 points or more in five of those games; they’ve allowed 102.7 points per game in those road outings.  Chicago’s defense was horrendous last night, and without time to rectify their issues, we expect another poor defensive performance by the Bulls tonight.                   

Miami is a much different team now than they were when they faced the Bulls earlier this season.  Miami’s offense is run by speedy point guard Goran Dragic, and his ability to push the pace and get inside the paint will get the Heat a lot of easy baskets in this game.  Miami scored 105 points in their last game, and since they are playing a second consecutive home game for just the second time over their last eleven games, we can expect another strong offensive performance.  Miami’s offense has been significantly better at home recently as they’ve scored 104 points or more in six of their last seven home games.  The Heat averaged 103 points per game in those seven home games, so that trend matches up well with Chicago’s recent trend of poor defense on the road.  We expect a high-scoring game between Chicago and Miami on Thursday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Atlanta is having a tremendous season, and the Hawks have been the best team in the Eastern Conference since the beginning of the season.  Atlanta has the #1 seed locked up, and they are basically just waiting for the playoffs to begin.  Atlanta’s first round opponent will be either Boston or Brooklyn, and the rumor swirling around is that the Hawks would much prefer to face the Celtics.  If those reports are true, this is a game the Hawks will basically give away.  Besides that tidbit, this is just a terrible scheduling and situational spot for Atlanta.  The Hawks are off back-to-back blowout wins; they beat the Nets by 32 points (131-99) on Saturday night, and they beat the Suns by 27 points (96-69) last night.  Now the Hawks had to travel, and they’ve lost their last two road games.  On top of that, two Atlanta players, Thabo Sefolosha and Pero Antic, got arrested in the wee hours this morning in New York after a nightclub stabbing of Indiana player Chris Copeland.  This is not an ideal spot at all for Atlanta, and with nothing to play for, we don’t expect much of an effort from the Hawks in this game.

Brooklyn is in excellent current form as they are 11-3 over their last fourteen games.  The Nets are also playing with legitimate revenge after getting embarrassed in a 32-point loss in Atlanta just five days ago.  But the Nets were playing their fourth game in five nights while the Hawks had three full days of rest going into that game.  Brooklyn has won their last five home games by an average of 7.2 points per game.  Brooklyn’s offense has been tremendous in their last five games as they’ve averaged 106 points per game on 49.3% shooting from the field and 44.8% shooting from three-point land.  Atlanta’s defense has been terrible in their last six road games as they’ve allowed 107.2 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field.  Brooklyn is fighting for one of the last two playoff spots in the East, and since Atlanta is in a terrible spot, we’ll lay the points with the Nets in this game on Wednesday night.                     

10* Play NETS (-).

Golden State is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA, but the Warriors have their eyes on the playoffs, not a meaningless regular season game like tonight.  Golden State has nothing to play for as the regular winds down as they have locked up the #1 seed, and their non-competitive 107-92 loss in San Antonio on Sunday night might be the sign that the Warriors plan to save themselves for the upcoming playoffs.  Golden State gave their reserves a lot of minutes in that loss to the Spurs, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Warriors rest some of their starters again tonight, especially if they get behind early.  Golden State is playing their final road game of the season tonight, and the spot is not ideal.  The Warriors are playing their seventh road game over their last eight games, and they’ve done it over just fifteen days.  Golden State has to be road weary, and with four home games left on their schedule, the Warriors are not in the best of scheduling spots for this game.

New Orleans is in excellent current form as they are 4-1 SU during their past five games.  The Pelicans return home off a mini 3-game road trip where they went 2-1.  New Orleans did lose their last game in Portland, but the Pelicans have been tremendous when playing at home off a road loss.  In fact, New Orleans is an incredible 10-1 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS based on tonight’s posted line in this exact situational spot.  The Pelicans are a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS as a home underdog in this situation, and their lone straight-up loss came by just 2 points.  New Orleans’ offense has been tremendous in their last five games as they’ve averaged 103.2 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 47.9% shooting from three-point land.  New Orleans’ defense has also been fantastic in their last five games while holding their opponents to just 92.4 points on 44.4% shooting from the field and 34.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Pelicans took the Warriors to overtime the last time they played on this court, and since New Orleans is fighting for a playoff spot, we’ll take the points with the home underdog on Tuesday night.                     

10* Play PELICANS (+).

Duke and Wisconsin played earlier this season with the Blue Devils winning 80-70 on the Badgers’ home court as a 4-point road underdog.  Duke actually dominated that game as they shot 65.2% (30-46) from the field and 58.3% (7-12) from three-point land.  Duke is an elite offensive team as they score 1.19 points per possession.  Overall, Duke averages 79.2 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  Duke’s defense has been outstanding throughout the tournament.  The Blue Devils have held all five of their opponents to 61 points or less.  Duke has held those five opponents to just 37.4% (108-289) shooting from the field and 26.9% (21-78) shooting from three-point land.  Wisconsin’s offensive strength is shooting the three (30% of their points), but Duke’s perimeter defense is outstanding as only 24% of the points scored on them come from beyond the arc.  The Blue Devils are also comfortable playing slow-down, half-court teams like Wisconsin.  In fact, Duke is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season against Wisconsin, Virginia, San Diego State, and Utah.

Wisconsin is off back-to-back straight-up wins as an underdog, and now they are laying points in the championship game against Duke who has won four of their five tournament games by 14 points or more.  Wisconsin’s offense was tremendous in their last two games against Arizona and Kentucky, two teams with stout defenses.  The Badgers shot 51.6% (48-93) from the field and an incredible 54.3% (19-35) from three-point land in those two games.  Wisconsin out-scored Arizona and Kentucky 57-15 from three-point land, but that’s not going to happen against Duke’s terrific perimeter defense.  Despite their impressive shooting, Wisconsin trailed at the half against Arizona, and they trailed Kentucky by 4 points with a few minutes remaining.  The Badgers have a woeful interior defense with 61% of the points scored upon them coming from 2-point range.  Duke scores 53% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint.  Duke out-shot Wisconsin 68% to 39% from two-point range earlier this season when they played on December 3rd.  Wisconsin has played to their max in their last two games, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to repeat those performances tonight, especially after two straight underdog wins.  The Kentucky upset on Saturday was especially emotional as the Badgers knocked off a 38-0 SU team and also got revenge from their one-point loss in the Final Four last year.  Now, Wisconsin must regroup on just one day's rest and face a Duke squad that won easily by 20 points on Saturday night.  We'll take the value with Duke as an underdog in this game tonight.

10* Play DUKE (+).

Miami and Indiana are both chasing Boston for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  The Heat are one game behind the Celtics while the Pacers are two games behind Boston and one game behind the Heat.  Tonight’s game in Indiana will be like a playoff elimination game, so we expect a lot of defensive intensity in this game.  Miami played last night in Detroit, and the Heat dropped an important game by a single point (99-98).  Despite that game being high-scoring, the pace was extremely slow as the teams only combined to take a total of 150 shots.  Over their last four games, Miami has played the eight slowest pace in the NBA as their games have only averaged 90.7 possessions per game.  The Heat’s offense has really struggled as well as they’ve scored 98 points or less in seven of their last eight games, and 88 points or less in five of those games.  Over their past five games, Miami’s offense is only averaging 92.4 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field and 32.1% shooting from three-point land.

Indiana was the hottest team out of the All-Star break, but the Pacers are have since gone just 3-9 SU during their last twelve games.  The Pacers are coming off a 93-74 home win versus Charlotte on Friday night.  Indiana’s defense held the Hornets to just 35% (28-80) shooting from the field and 22.2% (4-18) shooting from three-point land.  That was a tremendous defensive effort, especially since the Pacers’ defense was playing well below their level in nine of their previous ten games.  Overall at home this season, Indiana only gives up 95.7 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field and 34.2% shooting from three-point land.  Indiana’s offense has scored just 93 and 87 points in their last two games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous six games.  Indiana’s Paul George is slated to play tonight for the first time this season, but his return will likely disrupt the rhythm and chemistry of the current Pacers’ lineup.  There should be a playoff type intensity in this game, so look for a low-scoring defensive battle between Miami and Indiana tonight. 

10* Play UNDER the total.

Utah has been playing good basketball recently.  The Jazz come into tonight’s game in Phoenix on a 3-game winning streak, and they are on an extended 15-7 run since the All-Star break.  However, Utah has played an extremely weak schedule, especially lately.  Utah’s recent wins have come against the Nuggets, Timberwolves, Lakers, Pistons, Hornets, Knicks, and Sixers.  Utah did beat Oklahoma City and Houston as well, but both of those games came at home and the Jazz were home underdogs in each game.  Utah has had two days of rest for this game, but the Jazz haven’t played well in this situation this season.  Utah is only 4-7 SU with a -2.5 points per game differential when playing on two days of rest.  Utah is 15-22 on the road this season with a -2.4 point differential as well, so this is not an optimal situational spot for the Jazz.                       

Phoenix comes into this game on a 5-game losing streak.  However, the Suns have played a brutal schedule recently with four of their last five losses coming to the Warriors, Blazers (2x), and Thunder.  The Suns are getting a huge class relief tonight against the Jazz, and this isolated home game for Phoenix is one they really need to win.  After tonight’s game, Phoenix has five remaining games with four of them on the road.  The Suns will play in Atlanta, Dallas, New Orleans, and San Antonio before closing out the regular season at home against the Clippers.  Those are five tough games, and tonight’s game against the Jazz is Phoenix’s most winnable game remaining on their schedule.  The Suns are 21-18 at home where they average 103.1 points per game.  Phoenix beat Utah 100-93 on this court earlier this season, and we expect a similar outcome tonight.  We’ll lay the points with the Suns in this game on Saturday night.                      

9* Play SUNS (-).

Kentucky is obviously the best team in the country, and we expect the Wildcats to put on a show in this game, especially since they are motivated after a subpar performance against Notre Dame last week.  Kentucky is an elite team on both ends of the court as they score 1.14 points per possession while only giving up 0.81 points per possession.  Overall, Kentucky averages 74.6 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land.  Kentucky’s defense is only allowing 53.9 points per game on 35.1% shooting from the field and 26.7% shooting from three-point land.  Wisconsin’s offensive strength is shooting the three (30% of their total points), but Kentucky’s perimeter defense is outstanding as only 25% of the points scored on them come from beyond the arc.  This game is also being played in a large football stadium (Lucas Oil) with unusual sight lines which makes outside shooting more difficult.

Wisconsin has been flirting with losses recently as they’ve trailed by 7 points or more in recent games before rallying back to win.  The Badgers’ offense broke out in a big way in their last game against Arizona.  Wisconsin shot 55.6% (25-for-45) from the field and an incredible 66.7% (12-for-18) from three-point land.  Wisconsin out-scored Arizona 36-6 from three-point land, but that’s not going to happen against Kentucky’s terrific perimeter defense.  Despite that impressive shooting against Arizona, Wisconsin still trailed at the half and they only led by 5 points with a few minutes remaining.  The Badgers have a woeful interior defense with 61% of the points scored against them coming from 2-point range.  Kentucky scores 55% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint.  Wisconsin played their max game against Arizona, and they’ll be unable to duplicate that performance tonight.  Kentucky is ready for a breakout game, and they are likely to do it here, so we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play KENTUCKY (-).

Michigan State is 8-1 SU during their last nine games, and they come into this game off four solid tournament wins.  Michigan State is the second best team in the Big 10, and the gap between them and Wisconsin is much closer than people think.  The fact that Michigan State was slated as a #7 seed was ridiculous.  Michigan State had the best defense in the Big 10 conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 63.2 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Spartans have played overtime twice in their last six games, and if we eliminate those two games, their defense has been even better.  Michigan State has held their other four opponents to 58 points or less on combined shooting of just 34.7% (76-for-219) from the field.

Duke won their first two tournament games easily, but they played inferior competition.  In their next game against San Diego State, the Blue Devils faced a very good defense, but on offense the Aztecs were one of the worst in the entire tournament.  Duke shot 54.5% (30-for-55) from the field and 42.9% (6-for-14) from three-point land on a San Diego State defense that only gave up 0.86 points per possession this season.  Duke’s defense had little to do since the Aztecs’ offense was horrendous at 0.98 points per possession this season.  Duke then faced a Utah team that had an elite offense (1.12 points per possession) and defense (0.89 points per possession).  The Blue Devils survived Utah despite shooting just 44.4% (20-for-45) from the field and 33.3% (3-for-9) from three-point land.  Duke then took their third consecutive jump in class against Gonzaga and Duke pulled away late thanks to a missed layup that would have tied the game with 5:00 remaining and caused a downward spiral for Gonzaga, along with some questionable whistles by the officials.  Duke will now face their toughest opponent as Michigan State is playing their best basketball of the season.  The Spartans are much better than their overall 27-11 SU record indicates as they have played an incredible eight overtime games this season, going just 3-5 SU which means they are 24-6 SU in all other games.  We'll take the points in this game on Saturday night.        

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE (+).