Indiana played terrific basketball in the second half of Game 6 to force tonight’s Game 7 back in Toronto.  The Pacers trailed by 4 points at the half before out-scoring the Raptors 61-39 in the second half.  Indiana got another stellar performance from Paul George in Game 6 as he scored 21 points after getting to the free throw line ten times in the game.  In Game 5, George scored 39 points on 57.9% (11-19) shooting from the field.  Those performances actually set George up to regress tonight considering he struggled mightily against the Raptors in all four regular season meetings.  He shot just 31% (20-65) from the field which was his lowest shooting percentage versus any opponent in the Eastern Conference this season.  In 59 minutes with George off the court in this series, Indiana is a -33 in points scored compared to +48 in points scored in 160 minutes with him on the court.  Overall, the Pacers’ offense only had a 98.9 offensive efficiency rating in their four regular season games against Toronto.

Toronto returns home for Game 7, and we expect a superb performance tonight by the Raptors.  The team needed a monster fourth quarter rally to beat Indiana back in Game 5, but we expect the Raptors to come out and play their best basketball from the opening tip.  In the six games in this series, Toronto has out-scored Indiana 222-198 inside the paint.  The Raptors have also dominated the glass while holding a 262-237 rebounding edge, including an 85-59 edge on the offensive glass.  Those two areas are key to winning basketball games, and the Raptors have clearly dominated Indiana in the first six games.  Toronto had a 0.448 free throw rate against the Pacers this season; the highest of any Indiana opponent.  The Raptors got to the free throw line 169 times in the six games while shooting 76.3% (129-169) from the stripe.  Toronto also has the second best bench in the NBA behind the Spurs, so they hold some serious advantages over the Pacers.  We’ll lay the points with Toronto in Game 7 of this series on Sunday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

Toronto bounced back in Game 5 as they squeaked out a 102-99 home win over Indiana.  The Raptors are now 6-3 SU versus Indiana this season; the Raptors beat the Pacers in three of four regular season meetings.  In the five games in this series, Toronto has out-scored Indiana 190-160 inside the paint.  The Raptors have also dominated the glass while holding a 222-193 rebounding edge, including a 70-47 edge on the offensive glass.  Those two areas are key to winning basketball games, and the Raptors have clearly dominated Indiana in the first five games.  Toronto had a 0.448 free throw rate against the Pacers this season; the highest of any Indiana opponent.  The Raptors got to the free throw line 144 times in the five games while shooting 78.5% (113-144) from the stripe.  Toronto also has the second best bench in the NBA behind the Spurs, so they hold some serious advantages over the Pacers.  The above numbers will continue tonight, especially since Indiana is set to regress in some areas.

Indiana played terrific in Game 5, but they blew a 17-point lead after getting out-scored 25-9 in the fourth quarter.  That type of loss is difficult to overcome, even in the playoffs.  The Pacers got another stellar performance from Paul George in Game 5 after he scored 39 points on 57.9% (11-19) shooting from the field.  That performance actually sets George up to regress tonight considering he struggled mightily against the Raptors in all four regular season meetings.  He shot just 31% (20-65) from the field which was his lowest shooting percentage versus any opponent in the Eastern Conference this season.  Overall, the Pacers’ offense only had a 98.9 offensive efficiency rating in their four regular season games against Toronto.  We’ll take the points with Toronto in Game 6 of this series on Friday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Atlanta and Boston have gone Under the total in four of five games in this series, and we expect another low-scoring game tonight.  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta’s defense held Boston’s offense to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.  That ranks the Celtics’ offense just 15th against any opponent.  Overall, Boston’s offense has an effective field goal percentage of just 44.4 outside the paint this season.  That is the fourth lowest in the NBA, and the worst of the 16 playoff teams.  Atlanta’s offense was the worst against other playoff teams while finishing 8th in offensive efficiency (99.1).  We expect the Hawks to regress after scoring 110 points on 14 made three’s in Game 5 on Tuesday night. 

Boston ranked 13th in offensive efficiency (103.9) and 5th in defensive efficiency (100.9) this season.  Boston’s starting lineup only scored 58 total points in 30 minutes played together against the Hawks during the regular season.  The Celtics are without their second leading scorer, Avery Bradley, due to a hamstring injury.  Boston’s offense is much smoother and more efficient with Bradley on the court, but without him they are hit or miss.  The Celtics’ offense ranked 7th (99.3) in offensive efficiency against other Eastern Conference playoff teams this season, and that was with Bradley on the court.  Atlanta ranked #1 in defense against other Eastern Conference playoff teams; the Celtics ranked 5th in defense.  We expect a low-scoring Game 6 between the Hawks and Celtics on Thursday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Charlotte and Miami played in two high-scoring games before playing in two low-scoring games in this series.  The Hornets and Heat scored 214 points in Game 1, and they scored 218 points in Game 2.  Both of those games came in Miami, and that’s where tonight’s game will be played.  Overall this season, the Hornets ranked 9th in offensive efficiency (105.1) while the Heat finished 12th in offensive efficiency (104.2).  Charlotte had the most improved offense in the league this season as they were +7.4 points per 100 possessions better than last season.  Charlotte’s offense really took off after the All-Star break, and they were the third best in the entire league while improving +5.3 points per 100 possessions.

Miami was the most improved offense in the league after the All-Star break as the Heat averaged +7.6 points per 100 possessions more than they did prior to the break.  Miami’s offense averaged 52.8 points per game in the paint after the All-Star break, and that ranked them #1 in the league.  The Heat scored 102 points inside the paint against Charlotte in the first two games of this series.  In six of eight meetings this season, both Charlotte and Miami averaged 100.0 points or more per 100 possessions.  That shows that both offenses have an easy time scoring on the opposing defense, and we expect more of the same in this game.  We expect a high-scoring Game 5 between the Hornets and Heat on Wednesday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Atlanta and Boston have gone Under the total in three of four games in this series, and with tonight being the all important Game 5, we expect another low-scoring game.  Boston ranked 13th in offensive efficiency (103.9) and 5th in defensive efficiency (100.9) this season.  Boston’s starting lineup only scored 58 total points in 30 minutes played together against the Hawks during the regular season.  The Celtics are without their second leading scorer, Avery Bradley, due to a hamstring injury.  Boston’s offense is much smoother and more efficient with Bradley on the court, but without him they are hit or miss.  The Celtics’ offense ranked 7th (99.3) in offensive efficiency against other Eastern Conference playoff teams this season, and that was with Bradley on the court.

Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta’s defense held Boston’s offense to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.  That ranks the Celtics’ offense just 15th against any opponent.  Overall, Boston’s offense has an effective field goal percentage of just 44.4 outside the paint this season.  That is the fourth lowest in the NBA, and the worst of the 16 playoff teams.  Atlanta ranked #1 in defense against other Eastern Conference playoff teams; the Celtics ranked 5th in defense.  Atlanta’s offense was the worst against other playoff teams while finishing 8th in offensive efficiency (99.1).  We expect a low-scoring Game 5 between the Celtics and Hawks on Tuesday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Miami played perfect in the first two games of this series, but they reverted back to normal as expected in Game 3 on Saturday.  Miami scored 123 points after shooting an incredible 57.6% (49-85) from the field and 50% (9-18) from three-point land in Game 1.  The Heat scored 115 points after shooting an incredible 57.9% (44-76) from the field and 56.2% (9-16) from three-point land in Game 2.  In the two games combined, Miami scored 238 points on 57.8% (93-161) shooting from the field and 52.9% (18-34) shooting from three-point land.  Things were much different in Game 3 as Miami only scored 80 points after shooting just 34.2% (27-79) from the field and 31.8% (7-22) from three-point land.  Miami and Charlotte are even across the board, and in fact, three of the four regular season games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  The first two games were not indicative of that, but Charlotte showed it in Game 3. 

Charlotte bounced back strong with a 16-point win in Game 3.  The Hornets led by as many as 24 points, and they out-scored Miami 52-28 inside the paint.  Charlotte ranked 9th in offensive efficiency (105.1) while the Heat finished 12th in offensive efficiency (104.2) during the regular season.  Charlotte actually had the most improved offense in the league this season as they were +7.4 points per 100 possessions better than last season.  Charlotte’s offense really took off after the All-Star break, and they were the third best in the entire league while improving +5.3 points per 100 possessions.  The Hornets have a very deep team, so we expect another supreme performance by the starters and the bench in tonight’s game.  We’ll back Charlotte once again in Game 4 on Monday night.

10* Play HORNETS (-).

Atlanta and Boston went Under the total in the first two games of this series, but the offenses broke out in Game 3 on Friday night.  That game went Over the total after a 111-103 Boston win.  The teams combined for 60 points from three-point land, and they also scored 42 points from the free throw line.  That’s just under 48% of the total points scored in the game; a random high-scoring game is all it was.  We expect things to revert back to normal tonight.  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta’s defense held Boston’s offense to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.  That ranks the Celtics’ offense just 15th against any opponent.  Overall, Boston’s offense has an effective field goal percentage of just 44.4 outside the paint this season.  That is the fourth lowest in the NBA, and the worst of the 16 playoff teams.

Boston ranked 13th in offensive efficiency (103.9) and 5th in defensive efficiency (100.9) this season.  The Celtics’ offense played well above their heads on Friday night without Avery Bradley (hamstring) and Kelly Olynyk (shoulder).  Boston had five players score in double figures with Isaiah Thomas leading the way with 42 points on 50% (12-24) shooting from the floor and 15 trips to the free throw line.  Boston’s starting lineup only scored 58 total points in 30 minutes played together against the Hawks during the regular season, so their performance in Game 3 was out of the ordinary.  Atlanta ranked #1 in defense against other Eastern Conference playoff teams; the Celtics ranked 5th in defense.  Atlanta’s offense was the worst while finishing 8th in offensive efficiency (99.1) while Boston ranked 7th (99.3) in offensive efficiency.  We expect a low-scoring Game 4 between the Hawks and Celtics on Sunday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Miami was the most improved offense in the league after the All-Star break, so their strong offensive outputs in the first two games of this series were not surprising.  However, the Heat played back-to-back perfect games, and it simply sets them up to regress sharply tonight.  Miami scored 123 points after shooting an incredible 57.6% (49-85) from the field and 50% (9-18) from three-point land in Game 1.  The Heat scored 115 points after shooting an incredible 57.9% (44-76) from the field and 56.2% (9-16) from three-point land in Game 2.  In the two games combined, Miami has scored 238 points on 57.8% (93-161) shooting from the field and 52.9% (18-34) shooting from three-point land.  Miami now hits the road to a face a desperate team, and the likelihood of the Heat continuing to shoot like they did in the two games at home is very, very low.

Charlotte and Miami are much closer teams than the first two games indicate.  In fact, three of the four regular season games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  Charlotte ranked 9th in offensive efficiency (105.1) while the Heat finished 12th in offensive efficiency (104.2) during the regular season.  Charlotte actually had the most improved offense in the league this season as they were +7.4 points per 100 possessions better than last season.  Charlotte’s offense really took off after the All-Star break, and they were the third best in the entire league while improving +5.3 points per 100 possessions.  Unfortunately, Charlotte will be without Nicolas Batum in this game after he hurt his foot late in Game 2.  But the Hornets have a very deep team, so his scoring can be made up by a few different players.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by Charlotte, so we’ll back the Hornets in Game 3 on Saturday night.

10* Play HORNETS (-).

Atlanta and Boston have gone Under the total in the first two games of this series, and we expect more of the same in Game 3 on Friday night.  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta’s defense held Boston’s offense to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.  That ranks the Celtics’ offense just 15th against any opponent.  Overall, Boston’s offense has an effective field goal percentage of just 44.4 outside the paint this season.  That is the fourth lowest in the NBA, and the worst of the 16 playoff teams.  In the first two games of this series, the Hawks have held Boston to just 34.2% (65-190) shooting from the field and 25.4% (16-63) shooting from three-point land.  Atlanta also committed few fouls as the Celtics only got to the free throw line 31 times in the two games.

Boston ranked 13th in offensive efficiency (103.9) and 5th in defensive efficiency (100.9) this season.  Boston ranked 7th (99.3) of the eight Eastern Conference playoff teams in offensive efficiency.  The Celtics’ offense was terrible without Avery Bradley (hamstring) on Tuesday night.  Bradley is Boston’s second leading scorer at 18 points per game.  Boston’s starting lineup only scored 58 total points in 30 minutes played together against the Hawks during the regular season, so losing Bradley is a major blow to the Celtics’ offense.  The Celtics also played without Kelly Olynyk because of a shoulder injury; he’s “questionable probably at best” to play tonight according to head coach Brad Stevens.  Atlanta’s offense has also been bad, especially against other playoff teams.  The Hawks’ offense was the worst against other Eastern Conference playoff teams while finishing 8th in offensive efficiency (99.1).  We expect a low-scoring Game 3 between the Hawks and Celtics on Friday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Toronto bounced back strong in Game 2 as expected, and we’ll come right back with the Raptors in Game 3 on Thursday night.  Toronto is now 4-2 SU versus Indiana this season; the Raptors beat the Pacers in three of four regular season meetings.  In the first two games of this series, Toronto has out-scored Indiana 88-56 inside the paint.  The Raptors have also dominated the glass while holding a 96-71 rebounding edge, including a 32-15 edge on the offensive glass.  Those two areas are key to winning basketball games, and the Raptors have clearly dominated Indiana in the first two games.  Toronto had a 0.448 free throw rate against the Pacers this season; the highest of any Indiana opponent.  The Raptors got to the free throw line 63 times in the first two games while shooting 77.8% (49-63) from the stripe.  Toronto also has the second best bench in the NBA behind the Spurs, so they hold some serious advantages over the Pacers.  The above numbers will continue tonight, especially since Indiana is set to regress in some areas.

Indiana played terrific in Game 1, and they were rewarded with a 100-90 win over Toronto.  The Pacers got another stellar performance from Paul George in Game 2 after he scored 28 points on 53.3% (8-15) shooting from the field.  George scored 33 points on 54.5% (12-22) shooting from the field in Game 1.  However, those performances actually set George up to regress tonight considering he struggled mightily against the Raptors in all four regular season meetings.  He shot just 31% (20-65) from the field which was his lowest shooting percentage versus any opponent in the Eastern Conference this season.  Overall, the Pacers’ offense only had a 98.9 offensive efficiency rating in their four regular season games against Toronto.  We’ll lay the points with Toronto in Game 3 of this series on Thursday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

Charlotte got embarrassed by Miami in Game 1 as the Heat rolled to an easy 32-point (123-91) win.  However, that was not a true result as the Hornets and Heat are much closer teams than Game 1 indicated.  Charlotte ranked 9th in offensive efficiency (105.1) while the Heat finished 12th in offensive efficiency (104.2) during the regular season.  Charlotte actually had the most improved offense in the league this season as they were +7.4 points per 100 possessions better than last season.  Charlotte’s offense really took off after the All-Star break, and they were the third best in the entire league while improving +5.3 points per 100 possessions.  Charlotte’s starting lineup averaged 114.5 points per 100 possessions in 406 minutes played together this season; that ranked them #3 in the NBA.  Charlotte and Miami played just one game after the All-Star break, and it was the only game this season where the current lineups faced each other;  Charlotte won 109-106.  We’re willing to ignore the results of Game 1 as the noted numbers above are more trustworthy than a one game sample.

Miami was the most improved offense in the league after the All-Star break, so their strong offensive output in Game 1 was not surprising.  However, the Heat played a perfect game and it simply sets them up to regress sharply tonight.  Miami scored 123 points after shooting an incredible 57.6% (49-85) from the field and 50% (9-18) from three-point land.  The Heat had five players score in double figures while nine players scored overall.  It was a complete team effort in which everybody was on their game.  In four regular season meetings this season, three of the games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  That shows that these two teams are much closer than the results of Game 1 indicated.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by Charlotte, so we’ll take the Hornets plus the points in Game 2 on Wednesday night.

10* Play HORNETS (+).

Boston and Atlanta played in a very misleading final in Game 1.  The Hawks out-lasted the Celtics 102-101, but the teams only had 85 points combined at the half.  The teams only had 182 total points scored with about 2 minutes left to play in the game before a slew of garbage points.  In fact, the fourth quarter had 66 points scored after 137 total points were scored in the first three quarters.  Overall this season, the Celtics ranked 13th in offensive efficiency (103.9) and 5th in defensive efficiency (100.9).  Boston’s offense will be without Avery Bradley (hamstring) tonight, taking away their second leading scorer at 18 points per game.  Boston’s starting lineup only scored 58 total points in 30 minutes played together against the Hawks during the regular season, so losing Bradley is a major blow to the Celtics’ offense.

Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta’s defense held Boston’s offense to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.  That ranks the Celtics’ offense just 15th against any opponent.  Overall, Boston’s offense has an effective field goal percentage of just 44.4 outside the paint this season.  That is the fourth lowest in the NBA, and the worst of the 16 playoff teams.  As good as Atlanta’s defense has been, their offense has been bad, especially against other playoff teams.  The Hawks ranked #1 in defense against other Eastern Conference playoff teams; the Celtics ranked 5th in defense.  Atlanta’s offense was the worst while finishing 8th in offensive efficiency (99.1) while Boston ranked 7th (99.3) in offensive efficiency.  We expect a low-scoring Game 2 between the Celtics and Hawks on Tuesday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Indiana played terrific in Game 1, and they were rewarded with a 100-90 win over Toronto.  The Pacers will need to play even better to win Game 2, but we do not expect that to happen.  Indiana went just 1-3 SU against the Raptors in the regular season.  A major reason for that was the play of their offense; they scored less than 100 points in three of the four games.  Overall, the Pacers’ offense only had a 98.9 offensive efficiency rating in their four regular season games against Toronto.  Indiana’s best player, Paul George, struggled mightily against the Raptors in those four games; he shot just 31% (20-65) from the field.  That was his lowest shooting percentage versus any opponent in the Eastern Conference.  However, the Pacers scored 100 points on 52.4% (11-21) shooting from three-point land.  George scored 33 points on 54.5% (12-22) shooting from the field.  Indiana played well above their average against Toronto in Game 1, so we expect major regression in Game 2 tonight.

Toronto continued their pattern of losing at home in Game 1 of a playoff series.  The Raptors were unable to recover from those losses in the past, but we expect a different outcome for Toronto, especially in tonight’s game.  Toronto has a favorable matchup against Indiana as noted above, and it’s hard to see them playing another poor game tonight.  The Raptors are 32-10 on their home court this season where they average 104.6 points per game and allow just 98.4 points per game.  Despite losing Game 1, the Raptors still out-scored the Pacers 42-26 inside the paint, and they got to the free throw line 38 times.  Toronto had a 0.448 free throw rate against the Pacers this season; the highest of any Indiana opponent.  The Raptors also have the second best bench in the NBA behind the Spurs, so a full team effort tonight gets the job done.  We’ll lay the points with Toronto in Game 2 of this series on Monday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

Charlotte and Miami are just about even across the board, and this series figures to be the most competitive in the playoffs.  Overall this season, the Hornets ranked 9th in offensive efficiency (105.1) while the Heat finished 12th in offensive efficiency (104.2).  Charlotte had the most improved offense in the league this season as they were +7.4 points per 100 possessions better than last season.  Charlotte’s offense really took off after the All-Star break, and they were the third best in the entire league while improving +5.3 points per 100 possessions.  Charlotte’s starting lineup averaged 114.5 points per 100 possessions in 406 minutes played together this season; that ranked them #3 in the NBA.  Charlotte and Miami played just one game after the All-Star break, and it was the only game this season where the current lineups faced each other.  Charlotte won 109-106, and we expect a similar type of game tonight.

Miami was the most improved offense in the league after the All-Star break as the Heat averaged +7.6 points per 100 possessions more than they did prior to the break.  Miami’s offense averaged 52.8 points per game in the paint after the All-Star break, and that ranked them #1 in the league.  The Heat scored 58 points inside the paint against Charlotte in their March 17th matchup, and they’ll have similar success tonight.  In four meetings this season, both Charlotte and Miami averaged 100.0 points or more per 100 possessions.  That shows that both offenses had an easy time scoring on the opposing defense, and we expect more of the same in this series.  Miami has increased their pace of play recently as well, so the Heat are willing to run up and down while trading points with the Hornets.  We expect a high-scoring Game 1 between the Hornets and Heat on Sunday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Boston and Atlanta have similar statistical makeups, and this series figures to be an ugly one on the offensive end of the court.  Overall this season, the Celtics ranked 13th in offensive efficiency (103.9) while the Hawks finished 18th in offensive efficiency (103.0).  Boston’s defense was much better than perceived as they ranked 5th in efficiency (100.9).  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  The above numbers may be surprising, especially considering all four games between Boston and Atlanta this season had 199 points or more scored with the average total of those games being 213 points scored.  But three of those games came before Atlanta’s defensive surge, and the posted total on tonight’s game is simply based on the past meetings.

Atlanta’s defense held Boston’s offense to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions this season.  That ranks the Celtics’ offense just 15th against any opponent.  Overall, Boston’s offense has an effective field goal percentage of just 44.4 outside the paint this season.  That is the fourth lowest in the NBA, and the worst of the 16 playoff teams.  Boston’s starting lineup only scored 58 total points in 30 minutes played against the Hawks.  As good as Atlanta’s defense has been, their offense has been bad, especially against other playoff teams.  The Hawks ranked #1 in defense against other Eastern Conference playoff teams; the Celtics ranked 5th in defense.  Atlanta’s offense was the worst while finishing 8th in offensive efficiency (99.1) while Boston ranked 7th (99.3) in offensive efficiency.  We expect both defenses to control this game, so look for a low-scoring Game 1 between the Celtics and Hawks on Saturday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Utah is still alive for a playoff spot, but the odds of the Jazz actually getting in are stacked against them.  Utah needs Houston to lose to Sacramento, but the Kings are 15.5-point home favorites, and they’ll be playing a team that will be without all of their best players.  Utah knows they basically have zero chance at getting the final playoff spot, and because of that, they’ve decided to shutdown some of their better players as well.  Rudy Gobert did not even make the trip to Los Angeles, and Alec Burks who just returned from injury, is questionable after injuring his knee in the last game.  After seeing Houston win earlier in the night, the Jazz will have difficulty in this game, especially since they’ll be playing a motivated opponent.

Los Angeles will play their final game of the season, and it will also be the final game for one of the NBA greats.  Kobe Bryant is retiring after tonight, so this will be his last game in a NBA uniform.  The Lakers have had a dreadful season, but a win tonight will be the right way for Kobe to go out.  Los Angeles will certainly come with their best effort, and they are getting a vulnerable opponent on top of that.  The Lakers will be primed for one of their better games, so taking the points has some value in this game on Wednesday night.\

9* Play LAKERS (+).

Milwaukee and Orlando match-up extremely well for a high-scoring game.  In their three meetings this season, the teams have combined to go Over the total in every game.  Milwaukee’s offense is in good current form; they’ve scored 109 points in each of their last two games.  Orlando’s defense is in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 111 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land in their last five games.  The Magic were unable to slow the Bucks offense down in the earlier meetings, and that will be the case once again tonight.

Orlando comes into this game off a 22-point loss in Miami last night.  The Magic scored just 96 points which snapped their streak of seven consecutive games of scoring 104 points or more.  Orlando will be primed for a strong bounce back performance tonight against Milwaukee, especially on the offensive end of the court.  The Magic averaged 115.6 points per game in their seven previous games before last night.  Milwaukee’s defense has given up 110.6 points per game on 51.1% shooting from the field over their last five games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Bucks and Magic on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Orlando and Miami just played on Friday night, and the teams combined to score 221 points with the Magic winning 112-109.  After a sluggish first quarter, the teams combined to score 175 points over the final three quarters.  Miami was surprisingly willing to play in a fast-paced game, and they allowed Orlando to shoot 52.4% (43-82) from the field and 50% (5-10) from three-point land.  The Magic also had 20 fast break points, and 60 of their 112 points came inside the paint.  Miami’s defense was obviously playing on tired legs after their energy was sapped in a come from behind win the night before.  Orlando’s offensive efficiency will be way down in tonight’s game, especially since the Heat have had a day of rest to get their energy back.

Miami played uncharacteristic basketball against Orlando on Friday night.  The Heat prefer to play at a slow pace, and allow their defense to win them games.  Miami took 100 shots against the Magic, including 22 three-point attempts.  Because of that, Miami’s defense suffered greatly, and they lost an important game for their playoff positioning.  Off that loss, and a poor defensive effort, we expect a bounce back performance by the Heat.  Miami’s defense has held their last four home opponents to less than 100 points.  Overall this season, Miami is only giving up 97.9 points per game on 44.5% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Magic and Heat on Sunday night. 

10* Play UNDER the total.

San Antonio played at Golden State last night, and the Spurs lost 112-101 to the Warriors.  Head coach Gregg Popovich decided to play everybody in last night’s game, and if his pattern of resting players holds form, the Spurs will likely be without the majority of their starters tonight.  That should be the case considering San Antonio is playing their third road game in four nights, and they will be doing so in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  Also, the Spurs will return home and host Golden State on Sunday, so this is a meaningless sandwich game.  San Antonio also had some major injury scares last night, including LeMarcus Aldridge who suffered a dislocated finger in the game.  

Denver has been a hard-trying team all season despite their poor record.  The Nuggets have had two full days of rest to prepare for tonight’s game, and that gives them a big scheduling advantage over a San Antonio team playing on back-to-back nights.  Denver owns 17 wins on their home court this season, but they’ve lost their last three home games.  The Nuggets will come with a peak performance tonight, especially since they are playing one of the elite teams in the league.  Overall, Denver is averaging 104.2 points per game at home this season, so they have enough offense to trade points with the Spurs if Popovich decides to give minutes to his better players.  This is a terrific spot for Denver, so we’ll back the Nuggets in this game on Friday night. 

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Minnesota comes into tonight’s game in Sacramento off a monumental upset of the Warriors on Tuesday night.  The Timberwolves beat Golden State 124-117 in overtime after shooting 51.2% (44-86) from the field and 47.1% (8-17) from three-point land.  Five players scored in double figures while five players played 33 minutes or more; three players played 40 minutes or more.  Minnesota closed as 14-point underdogs in that game, and that win was certainly unexpected.  Prior to that game, the Timberwolves had lost three consecutive games by margins of 20, 13, and 10 points.  Minnesota’s offense scored 85 points or less in all three of those games, so the sudden reversal of form in the Golden State game came out of nowhere.  That win sets Minnesota up in a major letdown spot for tonight’s meaningless game in Sacramento against the Kings.

Sacramento is just 31-47 on the season, but their last two home games have some meaning.  The Kings are likely playing their final games in this arena, and since their last home game is against Oklahoma City, tonight is their last winnable game.  Sacramento has alternated wins and losses over their last six games, and since they come in off a loss in their last game, we expect a win tonight if their current trend holds form.  The Kings are also taking a big step down in class after recently playing a slew of teams fighting for playoff spots and positioning.  Sacramento is averaging 107.9 points per game on 47% shooting from the field at home this season.  That matches-up well with Minnesota’s defense that allows 106.9 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field on the road this season.  We’ll lay the points with Sacramento in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play KINGS (-).

The Clippers and Lakers played last night, and the game was a noncompetitive blowout.  The better team in Los Angeles (Clippers) won by 22 points (103-81).  The Clippers shot 51.3% (40-78) from the field with 13 different players all scoring at least 2 points or more.  The Clippers are essentially locked into their playoff position, so the team has nothing to gain over their last five games of the regular season.  Head coach Doc Rivers has a tendency to rest his starters late in the season in order to preserve them for the playoffs.  That is especially true when his team is on a back-to-back set as they are tonight.  Rivers will likely give his second unit the majority of the minutes tonight, especially since the team is playing their third game in four nights, and their fifth game over the last eight nights.       

The Lakers are having an embarrassing bad season as they come into tonight’s game with a 16-61 record.  However, tonight’s rematch with the Clippers will bring out a big effort by the Lakers, especially after last night’s poor performance.  Head coach Byron Scott called his team out after bringing little effort: “It bothers me that his last five, six, seven, eight games are going to be with the way we’re playing as a team,” Scott said.  He’s referring to Kobe Bryant’s career coming to an end, and with this being his last game against the Clippers, we expect a peak performance by the Lakers.  “The bottom line is you have to be a professional, you’ve got to come out and play hard every single night. If it’s the last game of the season or five games left in the season, because you’re still getting paid.”  The Clippers could care less about this game while the Lakers will come with a much better effort, so we’ll take the points in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play LAKERS (+).

New Orleans is a mash unit right now.  The Pelicans had eight players suffer season-ending injuries, so their current roster does not resemble one of NBA quality.  New Orleans has played in three consecutive competitive games with their poor roster, but they can’t maintain that level of play with the guys they are sending out onto the court.  The Pelicans only lost by 8 points (100-92) to the Spurs, and then they beat the Nuggets by 6 points (101-95) and the Nets by 19 points (106-87).  New Orleans will play their third road game over their last four games, and they are just 9-29 away from home this season.  The Pelicans give up 105.5 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 36.6% shooting from three-point land on the road.         

Philadelphia is also having an embarrassing bad season as they come into tonight’s game with a 9-68 record.  However, tonight’s opponent presents the 76ers with a legitimate chance at getting their 10th win of the season.  Philadelphia has played a brutal schedule as of late with games against the Warriors, Thunder, Celtics, Pacers (twice), Trail Blazers, and the Hornets (twice).  All of those teams are currently in the playoffs, so the 76ers had little chance of winning those games.  Philadelphia’s offense has actually scored 102 points or more in four of their last six games, so they are in good current form.  The 76ers’ defense is also taking a major drop in class against the limited New Orleans offense.  This is one of Philadelphia’s last chances to get a much-needed win, so we’ll back the 76ers in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play 76ERS (-).

Villanova and North Carolina were the two most impressive teams throughout the tournament, so this championship game is deserving by both teams.  Villanova is an elite team on both ends of the court as they average 1.17 points per possession on offense, and only allow 0.93 points per possession on defense.  Overall, Villanova averages 78 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land.  The Wildcats score 33.4% of their points from three-point land, and that matches-up extremely well against North Carolina’s defense that allows 33.1% of the points scored on them to come from beyond the arc.  Villanova’s defense held all five of their tournament opponents to 69 points or less while allowing an average of just 60.6 points per game.  Villanova held those five opponents to 42% (115-274) shooting from the field and 31.8% (34-107) shooting from three-point land.

North Carolina also cruised thru their tournament opponents; the Tar Heels won all five of their games by 14 points or more.  However, North Carolina faced the easier path to the championship game as their opponents only averaged an 81.8 on my power ratings.  To compare, Villanova’s opponents averaged an 86.6 on my power ratings.  So even though both teams were impressive, Villanova did it against the much stronger competition.  North Carolina’s offensive strength is their inside scoring as 61.5% of their points scored come from 2-point range.  That was a major match-up edge for the Tar Heels in their last game against Syracuse, but it will be a major disadvantage against Villanova tonight.  Only 49% of the points scored on the Wildcats’ defense come from 2-point range.  Villanova’s defensive weakness is allowing 33.3% of the points scored on them to come from 3-point range, but only 19.7% of North Carolina’s points come from beyond the arc.  We’ll take the points with Villanova in the title game on Monday night.

10* Play VILLANOVA (+).

Portland and Golden State match-up extremely well for a high-scoring game.  In their three meetings this season, the teams have combined to score 236, 242, and 240 points.  Portland averaged 119 points per game while the Warriors averaged 120.3 points per game.  The Trail Blazers’ offense is in good current form; they’ve scored 105 points or more in four consecutive games, and in eight of their last nine games overall.  Portland’s defense allows 105.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field and 36.1% shooting from three-point land on the toad this season.  The Trail Blazers were unable to slow the Warriors’ offense down in three earlier meetings, and that will be the case once again tonight.

Golden State comes into this game off their first home loss of the season.  In fact, that loss snapped their 54-game home winning streak.  Golden State will be primed for a strong bounce back performance tonight against Portland, especially on the offensive end of the court.  The Warriors scored just 106 points in their loss to the Celtics, and they only scored 103 and 102 points in their previous two games.  Those point totals are well below Golden State’s seasonal average of 115 points per game.  The Warriors’ high-scoring offense will return tonight, especially off three straight low outputs.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Trail Blazers and Warriors on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Syracuse shocked everybody once again in this tournament when they beat #1 seed Virginia last Sunday night.  The Orange trailed by 14 points with 9 minutes to play before rallying for the upset win.  Syracuse beat a poor Dayton team in their tournament opener, and then they were the beneficiaries of the monumental upset loss by Michigan State to Middle Tennessee State.  Syracuse won those two games easily, and then they were on the receiving end of Gonzaga’s inexplicable collapse before another big comeback against Virginia.  So the Orange essentially had four wins handed to them, and here they are in the Final Four.  Now they will face North Carolina for the third time this season; the Orange are 0-2 against the Tar Heels.  Syracuse is heavily reliant on making three’s (36.5% of their points scored), and they only score 43.6% of their points from 2-point range.  Syracuse will need to hit a very high percentage from 3-point land just to be competitive in this game.  The Orange shot 29% (9-31) from three-point land in their home loss to the North Carolina, and just 25% (5-20) in their second loss in Chapel Hill.  A repeat of those performances tonight, and Syracuse will get run out of the gym.  

North Carolina has played tremendous basketball throughout the tournament.  The Tar Heels have won every game by 14 points or more while scoring 83 points or more in each game.  Syracuse’s only hope in this game is to slow it to crawl, but they couldn’t do that in the two earlier meetings this season when North Carolina scored 84 and 75 points.  North Carolina is an elite team on both ends of the court as they score 1.20 points per possession while only giving up 0.94 points per possession.  Overall, North Carolina averages 83 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field.  North Carolina’s defense is only allowing 69.9 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field.  The Tar Heels’ offensive strength is shooting from 2-point range (61.1% of their points), and inside scoring is how to beat Syracuse’s 2-3 zone.  We’ll lay the points with North Carolina in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

Washington will play their fourth game of a 5-game West Coast road trip tonight in Phoenix.  The Wizards come in off back-to-back losses, and they are just 1-4 SU over their last five games.  A major reason for the recent slump has been atrocious play by their defense.  The Wizards gave up 102 points or more in four of those five games while allowing an average of 112.8 points per game during that stretch.  Washington allowed their opponents to shoot 48.9% from the field and 36.7% from three-point land.  The Wizards’ offense has been in good current form; they’ve averaged 107.2 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Phoenix returns home off back-to-back road losses at Milwaukee and at Minnesota.  The Suns have played three of their last four games on the road, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a good effort tonight.  Phoenix has played little defense all season, and that has been especially true in their recent games.  The Suns’ defense has allowed 102 points or more in six consecutive games, and in eleven of their last twelve games overall.  Phoenix has given up 110.2 points per game over their last five games.  The Suns are averaging 103.4 points per game at home this season, and they’ll have no troubles scoring on the poor Washington defense.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Wizards and Suns on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Boston comes into tonight’s game in Portland off an embarrassing 24-point (114-90) loss to the Clippers on Monday night.  That loss snapped Boston’s 4-game winning streak, but we expect the Celtics to bounce back strong in this game.  Boston has lost six games, including Monday, by more than 15 points this season.  The Celtics are 4-1 SU in games following such defeats with their average win coming by a whopping 13.5 points per game.  Boston’s last three losses have come against the Clippers, Raptors, and Thunder who are all upper echelon teams in the NBA.  The Celtics will face a lesser team tonight in Portland, and Boston is simply a better overall team.  Boston already crushed the Trail Blazers by 23 points (116-93) earlier this month.  The Celtics dominated inside the paint as they out-scored the Trail Blazers 60-34, and they also had 30 fast break points to just 11 fast break points for Portland.   

Portland is 4-2 SU over their last six games, so it appears they are playing good basketball right now.  However, the Trail Blazers’ four wins have come against the dregs of the league like the Kings, Sixers, Mavericks, and Pelicans.  Three of those wins came by 6 points or less, so Portland struggled with those bad teams.  Portland’s defense is not in good current form as they’ve allowed 105.8 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field over their last five games.  To compare, Boston’s defense has allowed just 98.6 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field and 31.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Boston is in a terrific bounce back spot tonight, so we’ll take the Celtics plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CELTICS (+).

Golden State’s incredible season continues on as they come into tonight’s game in Utah with a 67-7 SU record.  However, this is a tough situational and scheduling spot for Golden State.  The Warriors played last night at home, and they beat the Wizards 102-94 after shooting 44% (11-25) from three-point land.  Golden State will now play on a back-to-back set, and they’ll be playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah without rest.  This will also be their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  Golden State is a team that needs to play ultra-fast to be at their best, but when unable to play up tempo basketball, the Warriors struggle mightily.  The Warriors are just 1-5 SU when held to less than 100 points this season with their lone win coming by just 6 points over Cleveland.  Tonight’s posted total is just 203, and that’s significant considering Golden State has played in eight straight games with a posted total of 220.5 or greater. 

Utah slogged thru a month of terrible basketball from February 10th thru March 9th.  The Jazz went 3-10 SU and just 2-11 ATS during that stretch of games.  But things have turned for the better for Utah as the Jazz have gone 8-2 SU and ATS over their last ten games.  Utah’s defense has been phenomenal recently; the Jazz have allowed just 88.2 points per game over their last ten games.  Going back a bit further, the Jazz have held twelve of their last fourteen opponents to 99 points or less.  Overall, Utah’s defense is allowing just 92.7 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 35.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Utah’s ability to slow the tempo will be a major factor in this game against the Warriors, so we’ll take the points with the Jazz in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

San Diego State was expected to regress this season.  The Aztecs started the season with two freshmen and a sophomore, and they had another freshman come off the bench.  San Diego State overachieved greatly this season, and the Aztecs were on the bubble for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.  San Diego State often has a had time winning games by margin because they play at such a slow pace.  That will be the case tonight against George Washington, a team that also plays at a slow tempo while focusing on half court offense and defense.  San Diego State has a history of struggling against similar teams, and tonight’s game falls squarely into that profile.  The Aztecs’ best offense comes from getting to the free throw line as 23.6% of their point scored come from the stripe.  However, George Washington doesn't foul much, and only 16.8% of the points scored on them come from the free throw line.  

George Washington was ready for a breakout season under head coach Mike Lonergan.  The Colonials had won 46 games over the last two seasons, and the team returned four starters this season.  The Colonials come into tonight’s game with 26 wins, including victories over Virginia, VCU, and Seton Hall.  George Washington has one of the biggest lineups in the country, and their ability to stifle opponents with their defense makes them competitive in every game.  The Colonials’ defense held opponents to just 43.3% shooting from the field and 33.7% shooting from three-point land this season.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with George Washington on Tuesday night.

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (+).

BYU comes into tonight’s game against Valparaiso with a respectable 26-10 record, but they’ve been fortunate in their last couple of games to reach Madison Square Garden.  BYU won their last two home games in this tournament by short margins; they only beat Virginia Tech by 3 points and Creighton by 6 points.  BYU usually dominates opponents that are not used to playing on their home court, so the close victory margins are certainly concerning.  BYU’s best player, Kyle Collinsworth, is just getting over the flu.  He lost 12 pounds, and it’s highly unlikely he’ll be at his best for tonight’s game.  “I didn’t pick up a basketball for three and a half days,” he said.  “Friday was when I got my appetite back and started eating again. It’ll have an effect on how I play on Tuesday.”  BYU has a terrific offense, but the Cougars have a terrible defense that allows 76.2 points per game away from home.  BYU gives up 1.00 points per possession, and they are at a serious defensive disadvantage in this game.

Valparaiso played terrific basketball this season, and the Crusaders were on the bubble for an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.  Valparaiso comes into this game with an impressive 29-6 record on the season.  The Crusaders own an impressive +11.7 point differential, and they won all three of their NIT home games by double digits.  Valparaiso’s defense is holding their opponents to just 63.5 points per game on 38.9% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  BYU’s head coach Dave Rose said: “We’re at our best when the games are in the 80s or high 70s. Valparaiso is at their best when the game is in the high 50s and 60s.”  Valparaiso will be able to control the pace in this game, and that will put BYU out of their comfort zone.  We’ll lay the points with the Crusaders in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play VALPARAISO (-).

Oklahoma City and Toronto played way back in November, and the teams combined to score 201 points despite poor shooting and a slow pace.  The teams combined to only take 161 shots from the field, including just 37 attempts from three-point land.  Oklahoma City was awful from three-point land in that earlier game against Toronto.  The Thunder hit just 34.8% (8-23) from beyond the arc, and they added just 12 points from the free-throw line.  Oklahoma City’s offense comes into this game in excellent current form; they’ve averaged 112.2 points per game on 50.7% shooting from the field over their last five games.  Oklahoma City has scored 111 points or more in seven consecutive games.

Toronto shot the ball terribly in that earlier game, but they still managed to score 103 points on the Oklahoma City defense.  The Raptors shot 41.8% (33-79) from the field, and just 35.7% (5-14) from three-point land.  The Raptors did score a lot of easy baskets with 50 of their total points coming inside the paint.  Toronto’s offense comes into this game in good current form as they’ve scored 224 points in their last two games.  The Raptors return home where they’ve scored 104 points or more in nine straight games.  Overall, Toronto is averaging 104.7 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  With normal shooting percentages, we expect a high-scoring game between the Thunder and Raptors on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Syracuse is playing with house money right now as the Orange should have never been an at-large selection for this tournament.  Just because Syracuse won three games to reach the Elite 8 does not justify the committee’s decision to give the Orange a #10 seed over more deserving teams.  Syracuse beat an equally poor Dayton team, and then they were the beneficiaries of the monumental upset loss by Michigan State to Middle Tennessee State.  Syracuse won those two games easily, and then they were on the receiving end of Gonzaga’s inexplicable collapse on Friday night.  So the Orange essentially had three wins handed to them, but tonight they are taking a big step-up in class against a Virginia team that is superior on both ends of the court.  Syracuse is heavily reliant on making three’s (36.8% of their points scored), and they only score 43.6% of their points from 2-point range.  But only 48.9% of the points scored on Virginia’s defense come from inside the arc.  Syracuse will need to hit a very high percentage from 3-point land just to be competitive in this game. 

Virginia already beat Syracuse 73-65 back in January.  As noted above, Syracuse needs to shoot a high percentage from 3-point land to compete with Virginia.  The Orange shot 43.3% (13-30) from beyond the arc in that game and they still lost by 8 points.  Virginia held Syracuse to just 38.9% (21-54) shooting from the field while the Cavaliers shot 56.8% (25-44) from the field and 44.4% (8-18) from three-point land on Syracuse’s trademark 2-3 zone.  Those shooting percentages are an indication that Virginia has a clear understanding of how to attack the Syracuse defense.  Virginia’s offense scores 56.6% of their points from 2-point range, and that matches-up well against Syracuse’s defense as 50.6% of the points scored on the Orange come from inside the arc.  The Cavaliers’ have an excellent defense that is holding opponents to just 59.8 points per game on 42.2% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land.  Virginia is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Sunday night.                  

10* Play VIRGINIA (-).

Villanova comes into this game with a 32-5 record after steamrolling their three opponents in the NCAA tournament.  Villanova’s three wins have come by 30, 19, and 23 points.  The Wildcats have scored 265 points on 59.9% (97-162) shooting from the field and 53.2% (33-62) shooting from three-point land.  That hot shooting is next to impossible to maintain, especially against Kansas who allows just 0.92 points per possession.  Overall, the Jayhawks give up just 67.6 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land.  Villanova is heavily reliant on making three’s (33.7% of their points scored), but only 27.2% of the points scored on Kansas’ defense come from beyond the arc.  That’s significant considering Villanova only scores 47.1% of their points from 2-point range while just 49.9% of the points scored on Kansas come from inside the arc.   

Kansas’ path to the Elite 8 has also been easy as the Jayhawks have won all three games by 12 points or more.  The Jayhawks have yet to play their best game, but there are reasons to expect it tonight, especially since Villanova is highly likely to regress in this game.  The Jayhawks own significant edges on both ends of the court based on efficiency metrics.  Kansas’ offense averages 1.19 points per possession compared to Villanova’s average of 1.17 points per possession.  Kansas scores 50.8% of their points from 2-point range, so they are not reliant on making three’s like Villanova.  The Jayhawks also own the better defense as Villanova is allowing 0.93 points per possession.  Kansas is the better team, and since Villanova is set to regress sharply, we’ll back the Jayhawks in this game on Saturday night.   

10* Play KANSAS (-).

Utah slogged thru a month of terrible basketball from February 10th thru March 9th.  The Jazz went 3-10 SU and just 2-11 ATS during that stretch of games.  But things have turned for the better for Utah as the Jazz have gone 6-2 SU and ATS over their last six games.  Utah’s last game was a 113-91 blowout loss at Oklahoma City, but that result can be easily dismissed as the Jazz were on a back-to-back set after winning in a comeback the night before in Houston.  Utah’s defense has been phenomenal recently; the Jazz have allowed just 90.4 points per game over their last eight games.  Going back a bit further, the Jazz have held ten of their last twelve opponents to 99 points or less.  Overall, Utah’s defense is allowing just 96.6 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land this season.  Utah’s stout defensive play will continue tonight in Minnesota, and their ability to slow the tempo will be a major factor in this game against the Timberwolves.

Minnesota played an energy-draining game last night in Washington.  The Timberwolves won 132-129 in double overtime.  Minnesota had four starters play 43 minutes or more, and all five starters played 39 minutes or more overall.  Minnesota’s entire second unit played 13 minutes or more as well.  The game was played at an extremely fast pace as the teams combined to take 196 shots, including 54 three-point attempts.  Minnesota also shot 53.1% (51-96) from the field with six players scoring in double digits.  The Timberwolves will now play on a back-to-back set, and this will also be their fourth game in six nights.  Minnesota is a team that needs to play ultra-fast to be at their best, but when unable to play up tempo basketball, the Timberwolves struggle mightily.  The Timberwolves are just 5-24 SU when held to less than 100 points this season; their average loss has come by 12 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with the Jazz in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play JAZZ (-).

Notre Dame needed to rally from behind to win their first two tournament games.  The Irish trailed Michigan by 12 points at the half before winning 70-63.  Notre Dame trailed Stephen F. Austin by 5 points with two minutes to play before winning 76-75 on a last-second tip-in.  Notre Dame is barely surviving, and tonight’s game against Wisconsin presents the Irish with a terrible match-up.  Notre Dame doesn’t play at a fast tempo, but the Irish are certainly a much better offensive team when they can get out and run while getting easy baskets in transition.  When the Irish are forced into half-court basketball, their offense struggles mightily.  Notre Dame is just 2-7 SU this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by 14.1 points per game.  The posted total of 131 on tonight’s game is a clear indication that the oddsmakers expect a slow pace, especially considering this is the lowest posted total on a Notre Dame game this season.

Wisconsin also survived their two tournaments games, but the Badgers faced much tougher opponents in Pittsburgh and Xavier.  Wisconsin’s style of play is conducive to tournament success, and that was evident last year when they made the Final Four.  The Badgers play at an extremely slow pace while playing exception team defense.  Wisconsin has held 28 of their 34 opponents to 70 points or less in regulation time this season.  Overall, the Badgers are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field.  Wisconsin also has an efficient offense that averages 1.10 points per possession.  My power ratings made this game a pick, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Friday night.          

9* Play WISCONSIN (+).

Iowa State is a team that needs to play at an ultra-fast tempo in order to be at their best.  The Cyclones like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Iowa State’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Cyclones will not get their preferred style of play against a Virginia team that plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court.  Iowa State has been held to less than 70 points four times this season, but those games were against inferior teams like Colorado and Oklahoma State twice.  Texas A&M also held Iowa State to just 62 points and the Cyclones lost that game by 10 points.  Iowa State did go 3-1 SU when held to less than 70 points, but their wins came by just 8, 6, and 5 points against much weaker teams.  Iowa State scores 55.5% of their points from 2-point range, but only 48.7% of the points scored on Virginia’s defense come from inside the arc. 

Virginia plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Cavaliers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with an excellent defense that is holding opponents to just 59.5 points per game on 41.9% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Cyclones are clueless when they are forced to play half-court basketball, and Virginia’s style will simply frustrate Iowa State.  The Cavaliers’ offense scores 56.3% of their points from 2-point range, and that matches-up extremely well against Iowa State’s defense as 54.3% of the points scored on the Cyclones come from inside the arc.  The Cyclones will be out of their comfort zone in this game, and their offense will struggle mightily because of the slow pace.  We’ll lay the points with Virginia in this game on Friday night.                  

10* Play VIRGINIA (-).

Oregon has won their first two tournament games, but the Ducks are still the worst #1 seed in recent memory.  Based on my power ratings, the Ducks should have been a #3 seed, but they parlayed an impressive Pac 12 conference tournament win into a #1 seed.  Oregon played three perfect games in that tournament, and they topped it off with a 31-point win over Utah in the final.  And the Ducks continued their hot run with another blowout win over Holy Cross in their first NCAA tournament game.  Oregon then got taken to the brink by St. Joseph’s, and they could have easily lost that game.  Now the Ducks are taking a huge step-up in class against Duke tonight, and we expect their good fortunes to run out.  Oregon’s defensive weakness is defending the three as 30.3% of the points scored on the Ducks come from beyond the arc.  That plays right into Duke’s offensive strength as the Blue Devils score 33.8% of their points from three-point land.

Duke is not the same team that won the national title last season.  The Blue Devils are shorthanded, and they play a limited 6-man rotation because of it.  But tonight’s game against Oregon is actually a really good match-up for the Blue Devils.  Duke owns a potent offense that is averaging 81.5 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  Duke averages an impressive 1.19 points per possession, so they will have success scoring on a below average Oregon defense that is allowing 0.97 points per possession this season.  Oregon is way overvalued, and my power ratings make the Ducks just 2-point favorites in this game, so we’ll take Duke plus the points in this game on Thursday night.  

9* Play DUKE (+).

Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 27-8 record this season, and their #5 seed in the tournament.  However, the Terrapins are a vulnerable team, especially away from home.  Maryland won 16 of their games on their home court, and they were just 4-6 in true road games.  That’s a clear indication that they are not a dominating team; they own a negative point differential on the road this season.  Maryland’s offense has struggled mightily away from home this season as they are only averaging 68.8 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Terrapins are heavily reliant on making three’s (30.1% of their points scored), but only 27.3% of the points scored on Kansas’ defense come from beyond the arc.  That’s significant considering Maryland only scores 49.4% of their points from 2-point range while just 49.8% of the points scored on Kansas come from inside the arc.   

Kansas’ path to the Sweet 16 has been easy as the Jayhawks faced a pair of low-rated teams.  The team hasn’t had to play their best yet, but there are reasons to expect Kansas to bring their ‘A’ game tonight.  The Jayhawks own significant edges on both ends of the court based on efficiency metrics.  Kansas’ offense averages 1.19 points per possession compared to Maryland’s average of 1.14 points per possession.  Kansas scores 50.4% of their points from 2-point range, and that matches-up well against a Maryland defense that allows 52.2% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  The Jayhwaks’ defense only allows 0.92 points per possession compared to the 0.96 points per possession allowed by the Terrapins’ defense.  Kansas is the superior team, and since my power ratings make the Jayhawks 7-point favorites, we’ll lay the points in this game on Thursday night.   

10* Play KANSAS (-).

Miami, FL has had an excellent season as the Hurricanes come into this game with a 27-7 record.  Miami had an easy draw in their first game against Buffalo, but then they got a brutal match-up against Wichita State in the second round.  The Hurricanes handled that assignment quite impressively, and we expect their terrific tournament play to continue tonight against Villanova.  The Hurricanes are a veteran group that made it all the way to the NIT finals last season; they lost the championship by 2 points in overtime.  That experience prepared Miami for a deep run in this year’s NCAA tournament, and there’s no reason their run won’t continue onto Saturday.  The Hurricanes own a significant coaching edge in this game with Jim Larranaga over Villanova’s Jay Wright, and that will be even more pronounced with four full days to prepare for tonight’s game.  Miami has an excellent 3-point defense as they only allow 26.5% of the points scored on them to come from beyond the arc.  Villanova’s offense is predicated on hitting three’s as 33.8% of their points scored come from beyond the arc.  That is a significant match-up edge that favors Miami greatly in this game.

Villanova comes into this game with a 31-5 record.  However, the Wildcats have been a stagnant bunch over the last few years as they always produce impressive win/loss records, but fail to parlay them into tournament success.  Over the last three years, Villanova has been knocked out in either their first or second tournament game.  After winning their first two tournaments games this season, the Wildcats are now in foreign territory.  Villanova got two cupcake draws in their first two games, and they won both games in blowout fashion.  The Wildcats scored 173 points on 58.6% (65-111) shooting from the field and 48.9% (23-47) shooting from three-point land.  That hot shooting will not continue tonight against a solid Miami defense that is only giving 66.7 points per game on 42.6% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with the Hurricanes on Thursday night.          

9* Play MIAMI, FL (+).

Utah slogged thru a month of terrible basketball from February 10th thru March 9th.  The Jazz went 3-10 SU and just 2-11 ATS during that stretch of games.  But things have turned for the better for Utah as the Jazz have gone 5-1 SU and ATS over their last six games.  Utah’s defense has been phenomenal recently; the Jazz allowed just 87.2 points per game over their last six games.  Going back a bit further, the Jazz have held nine of their last ten opponents to 99 points or less.  Overall, Utah’s defense is allowing just 96.5 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land this season.  Utah’s stout defensive play will continue tonight in Houston, and their ability to slow the tempo will be a major factor in this game against the Rockets.

Houston played an energy-draining game last night in Oklahoma City.  The Rockets ultimately came up short in a 111-107 loss to the Thunder.  Houston had two starters play more than 40 minutes, and four guys played 33 minutes or more overall.  The game was played at an extremely fast pace as the teams combined to take 183 shots, including 72 three-point attempts.  Houston will now play on a back-to-back set, and this will also be their fourth game in six nights.  Houston is a team that needs to play ultra-fast to be at their best, but when unable to play up tempo basketball, the Rockets struggle mightily.  The Rockets have been held to less than 100 points 17 times this season.  Houston is just 2-15 SU in those games with their two wins coming by just 4 points over the Spurs and by 2 points over the Jazz.  Houston is in a poor scheduling spot for this game, and since Utah is also a bad matchup for them, we’ll take the points with the Jazz in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

St. Mary’s had a fantastic season, and there was disbelief by many that the Gaels did not receive an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.  St. Mary’s comes into tonight’s game at Valparaiso with an impressive 29-5 record, but they’ve certainly had some favorable things in their corner to reach that record.  Twenty of St. Mary’s twenty-nine wins have come on their home court.  St. Mary’s has yet to cross the Rocky Mountains this season, so they’ve had little travel involved as well.  The Gaels have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition; they have the 156th rated schedule this season.  St. Mary’s best wins came over Gonzaga twice, and while those wins look good now with the Zags in the Sweet 16, keep in mind Gonzaga was given an #11 seed in the tournament despite beating St. Mary’s in the conference championship game.  St. Mary’s has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.

Valparaiso also played terrific basketball this season, and the Crusaders were also on the bubble of an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.  Valparaiso has the benefit of playing this game on their home court where they are 16-1 SU this season.  The Crusaders own an impressive +15.5 point differential at home, and they’ve won both NIT home games by double digits.  Valparaiso’s defense is holding their opponents to just 62 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  St. Mary’s offense is only averaging 68.5 points per game on the road this season.  “Only by winning this whole thing we can erase the sting we have of not making the tournament,” senior Keith Carter said.  “We’re a close knit group and we’re hungry to keep winning games.”  We’ll lay the points with the Crusaders in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play VALPARAISO (-).

Washington comes into tonight’s game in Atlanta on a nice 4-game winning streak.  The Wizards have played terrific basketball in those four games, especially on the defensive end of the court.  Washington has held their last four opponents to 96 points or less while allowing just 90 points per game.  The Wizards held those four teams to just 39.6% (134-338) shooting from the field and 25.8% (25-97) shooting from three-point land.  Washington’s stout defensive play will continue tonight because of a trade they made at the deadline.  The Wizards acquired Markieff Morris from the Suns, and his defense on Paul Millsap will be the key difference in tonight’s game.  Washington was routinely torched by Millsap because the Wizards had nobody to guard him.  With Morris, Washington now has a nice edge on both ends of the court.  “It’s going to be a good match up, him going against Millsap,” John Wall said.  “In the past we’d have to double-team certain people. Now we got somebody that can guard them guys one-on-one without help and be able to go back and those guys at the other end.”

Atlanta is also in good current form; the Hawks are on a 5-game winning streak.  But those wins have come against some bad teams like the Grizzlies, Nuggets, and Rockets.  The Hawks also won two games by 4 points or less, so it’s not like they’ve been dominating their opponents.  Atlanta has played nowhere near their level of last season, and they’ve basically beat-up on the bad teams this season.  The Hawks have been mediocre at best against teams on their level, and they’ve been poor against the upper echelon teams.  Tonight’s game against Washington pits the Hawks against a team on their level, and the Wizards are much better suited to beat Atlanta now that they have Morris to defend Millsap.  “I think that will help us out a lot,” Bradley Beal said of Morris.  “Somebody who can move and who’s pretty much the same size who can guard multiple positions.”  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Washington plus the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play WIZARDS (+).

Oregon crushed an undermanned Holy Cross team by 39 points on Friday night.  That dominating win over an inferior team did nothing to change the fact that Oregon is the worst #1 seed in recent memory.  Based on my power ratings, the Ducks should be a #3 seed, but they parlayed an impressive Pac 12 conference tournament win into a #1 seed.  Oregon played three perfect games in that tournament, and they topped it off with a 31-point win over Utah in the final.  And the Ducks continued their hot run with another blowout win in the NCAA tournament.  Oregon’s offense scores the majority of their points from 2-point range.  In fact, the Ducks score 52% of their points inside the arc, but only 50.8% of the points scored on St. Joseph’s defense come from 2-point range.  Oregon is simply taking a big step-up in class here, and they are facing a team that plays a physical brand of basketball.

St. Joseph’s plays to the personality of their head coach Phil Martelli.  The Hawks are a tough, scrappy team that lays everything on the court.  St. Joe’s is 28-7 on the season, and Martelli is brilliant in scheming defenses against high-octane offenses.  The Hawks own a potent offense themselves as they are averaging 77.6 points per game.  St. Joe’s averages an impressive 1.13 points per possession, so they will have success scoring on a below average Oregon defense that is allowing 0.97 points per possession this season.  Oregon is way overvalued, so we’ll take St. Joseph’s plus the points in this game on Sunday night.  

9* Play ST. JOSEPH’S (+).

Xavier cruised to an 18-point win over Weber State on Friday night.  The Musketeers played a perfect game as they shot 48.8% from the field, 50% from three-point land, and 100% from the free throw line.  Xavier was able to control tempo in that game as their superior talent forced Weber State into a fast-paced game.  But Xavier is unlikely to do the same tonight against Wisconsin, and that will be a major factor in this game.  The Musketeers need to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  Xavier’s games have averaged 72.9 possession per game this season which was the third highest of all the teams in the tournament this season.  Xavier was held to less than 70 points just four times this season, and they went 2-2 SU in those games.  The posted total of 137 on tonight’s game is a clear indication that the oddsmakers expect a slow pace, especially considering Xavier had an average posted game total of 148.8 this season. 

Wisconsin survived a tough match-up against Pittsburgh on Friday night.  The Badgers won that defensive scrum 47-43 as they played a Pittsburgh team that is a mirror image of themselves.  Wisconsin’s style of play is conducive to tournament success, and that was evident last year when they made the Final Four.  The Badgers play at an extremely slow pace while playing exception team defense.  Wisconsin has held 27 of their 33 opponents to 70 points or less in regulation time this season.  Overall, the Badgers are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field.  Wisconsin also has an efficient offense that averages 1.10 points per possession.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Sunday night.          

9* Play WISCONSIN (+).

Hawaii comes into this game off an impressive win over California on Friday afternoon.  The Warriors are 28-5 on the season, and four of their five losses have come by 8 points or less.  Hawaii plays excellent team basketball, and they use a solid 8-man rotation with only 2 guys averaging more than 30 minutes per game.  Their tremendous depth is highly beneficial for tournament play, and the team is likely to maintain their current level of play.  Hawaii owns an efficient offense that is averaging 77.1 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field.  The Warriors are also very aggressive as 23.3% of their points scored come from the free throw line.  Hawaii’s calling card is outstanding defense; they give up just 66.3 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.

Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 26-8 record this season, and their #5 seed in the tournament.  However, the Terrapins are a vulnerable team, especially away from home.  Maryland won 16 of their games on their home court, and they were just 4-6 in true road games.  That’s a clear indication that they are not a dominating team; they own a -2.1 point differential on the road this season.  Maryland’s offense has struggled mightily away from home this season as they are only averaging 68.8 points per game in those games.  The Terrapins are heavily reliant on making three’s (30.9% of their points scored), but only 26.4% of the points scored on Hawaii’s defense come from beyond the arc.  My power ratings make Maryland just a 6-point favorite, so there’s good value on Hawaii in this game.  We’ll take the Warriors plus the points in this game on Sunday night.    

10* Play HAWAII (+).

Los Angeles continues their 5-game road trip with a game in Memphis tonight.  The Clippers come in off a perfect offensive game in their 16-point win in Houston on Wednesday night.  Los Angeles scored 122 points on 56.6% (43-76) shooting from the field and 40% (12-30) shooting from three-point land in that game.  Despite scoring 122 points, Los Angeles played that game at a slow pace as indicated by only taking 76 total shots in the game.  The Clippers’ defense has been poor over their last three games as they allowed 106, 108, and 114 points.  However, they played three strong offensive teams in the Rockets, Cavaliers, and Spurs.  With two days off since their last game, the Clippers’ defense will have fresh legs while taking a monumental step-down in offensive class against the undermanned Grizzlies.  Los Angeles held a healthy Memphis team to just 92 points on 43.8% (35-80) shooting from the field and 18.2% (2-11) shooting from three-point land earlier this season.

Memphis comes into tonight’s game against Los Angeles on a 2-6 SU slide.  The Grizzlies figure to lose once again as they are double-digit underdogs in this game.  Memphis is playing with a misfit team; a roster that does not resemble one of NBA caliber.  The Grizzlies’ offense is in terrible current form; they’ve scored 86 points or less in three of their last four games.  Memphis’ offense doesn’t project to have much success tonight, especially since they’ve scored just 92, 86, 79, and 90 points in their last four meetings with Los Angeles.  As mentioned above, those games came when Memphis had their full compliment of players.  The current state of the Grizzlies is bleak and extremely limited.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Clippers and Grizzlies on Saturday night. 

9* Play UNDER the total.

Arkansas-Little Rock made a big comeback and survived two overtimes to beat Purdue 85-83 on Thursday.  Off such a grueling performance, there is obvious concern about fatigue and regression.  However, the way Arkansas-Little Rock plays negates some of those concerns.  The Trojans are a fundamentally sound and experienced team that will not get trapped into Iowa State’s style.  Arkansas State is 15-2 SU over their last seventeen games, so this is a team that simply knows how to win.  Overall, Arkansas-Little Rock is 30-4 on the season, including 16-4 in games away from home.  The Trojans play at a slow, methodical pace while running good offense that hits a lot of high percentage shots.  Arkansas-Little Rock averages 70.5 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 38.5% from three-point land.  Arkansas-Little Rock’s defense has been exceptional in neutral court games this season as they are only giving up 61 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  

Iowa State is a team that needs to play at an ultra-fast tempo in order to be at their best.  The Cyclones like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Iowa State’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Cyclones will not get their preferred style of play against an Arkansas-Little Rock team that plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court.  Iowa State has been held to less than 70 points four times this season, but those games were against inferior teams like Colorado and Oklahoma State twice.  Texas A&M also held Iowa State to just 62 points and the Cyclones lost that game by 10 points.  Iowa State did go 3-1 SU when held to less than 70 points, but their wins came by just 8, 6, and 5 points against much weaker teams.  The Cyclones will be out of their comfort zone in this game, and their offense will struggle mightily because of the slow pace.  We’ll take the points with Arkansas-Little Rock in this game on Saturday night.                  

10* Play ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (+).

Yale has played exceptional basketball this season.  The Bulldogs come into this game with a 23-6 record after opening the season at just 5-5.  That means Yale is 18-1 over their last 19 games, and to their credit, ten of those games were on the road.  The Bulldogs are extremely well coached, and they play a perfect half-court style of basketball that is conducive to NCAA tournament success.  Yale controlled Baylor from start to finish on Thursday, and we expect a similar performance this afternoon against Duke.  Yale has held 19 of their last 23 opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time.  Overall, the Bulldogs are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 40.9% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense is tremendous by efficiency metrics as they only give up 0.95 points per possession.  Yale also has a terrific offense that averages 74.6 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 36.9% shooting from three-point land.  

Duke beat NC-Wilmington 93-85 on Thursday afternoon.  The Blue Devils shot 53.7% (29-54) from the field, and they got to the free throw line a whopping 43 times.  Despite that, they could only beat an inferior team by 8 points.  That’s not impressive at all, and it shows that Duke is a vulnerable team.  The Blue Devils have limited depth, and they rarely play more than six guys on a consistent basis.  Duke always struggles when forced into half-court basketball, and that will be the case this afternoon.  The Blue Devils went just 1-6 SU when held to less than 70 points this season; they are 0-7 ATS when held to less than 70 points based on the posted spread as their lone win came by a single point.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Yale on Saturday afternoon.           

9* Play YALE (+).

St. Joseph’s is a decent team that comes into tonight’s game against Cincinnati with a 27-7 record on the season.  However, that record was built upon a very weak schedule that ranks 84th in the country.  To compare, the three other #8 seeds in the tournament played much tougher schedules that ranked #13, #50, and #52 in the country.  St. Joseph’s is a phony #8 seed, and in fact, they would underdogs to every #9 seed based on my power ratings.  The Hawks’ offense is heavily reliant on scoring easy baskets inside the paint as 52.2% of their points come from 2-point range.  St. Joseph’s will have a difficult time scoring consistently in this game against the stout Cincinnati defense that only allows 48.8% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  Overall, the Bearcats’ defense has an effective field goal percentage of 45.3% which ranks them #21 in the country.

Cincinnati is a tough team that comes into this game with a solid 22-10 record.  The Bearcats have three losses in overtime this season, and three other losses by exactly 2 points each.  So Cincinnati could have a much better record, and if those close losses went their way, they’d be 28-4 on the season.  The Bearcats are significantly better than their win/loss record indicates, and that provides a lot of value on them in this game, especially since St. Joseph’s is overvalued as mentioned above.  Cincinnati has a terrific defense that is holding their opponents to just 62.9 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 35.1% shooting from three-point land.  These two teams are much further apart than the seeds indicate, so we’ll lay the points with the Bearcats in this game on Friday night.      

10* Play CINCINNATI (-).

Holy Cross is fortunate to be in the NCAA tournament after going just 14-19 overall this season.  However, the Crusaders come into tonight’s game against Oregon playing their best basketball of the season.  Holy Cross is on a 5-game winning streak, including Wednesday night’s 59-55 win over Southern.  While there is some concern of long travel on short rest, that concern is mitigated by the style of basketball Holy Cross plays.  The Crusaders play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and in fact, they play at the slowest pace of any team in the NCAA tournament.  Their games only average 64.3 possessions per game, and the makes it extremely difficult for teams to beat them by big margins.  Holy Cross has relied on their defense, and they’ve allowed 67 points or less in regulation time in their last five games.  Overall, the Crusaders allow 69.2 points per game on the season. 

Oregon is the worst #1 seed in recent memory.  Based on my power ratings, the Ducks should be a #3 seed, but they parlayed an impressive Pac 12 conference tournament win into a #1 seed.  Oregon played three perfect games in that tournament, and they topped it off with a 31-point win over Utah in the final.  However, teams that play that well in conference tournaments often struggle mightily in their first NCAA tournament game, especially when they are big favorites.  Oregon’s offense scores the majority of their points from 2-point range.  In fact, the Ducks score 51.7% of their points inside the arc, but only 47.4% of the points scored on Holy Cross’ defense come from 2-point range.  This is also the lowest posted total (133.5) on an Oregon game this season, and that is a clear indication that this game will be played at a slow pace which benefits Holy Cross.  Even though Oregon lays over Holy Cross talent wise, this is a bad matchup for the Ducks, so we’ll take the big points with the Crusaders in this game on Friday night.   

9* Play HOLY CROSS (+).

Temple is not a tournament quality team.  The Owls went 20-11 on the season, and they are way over-seeded on the #10 line.  Based on my power ratings, Temple is more like a #12 or #13 seed.  The Owls are my lowest rated team on the #10 line, and in fact, they would be at least 4-point underdogs to the three other teams in the #10 pod, and that includes a terrible Syracuse team.  Temple’s offense is terrible, and I don’t expect them to have much success in this game.  Overall, the Owls are only averaging 68.7 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 34% shooting from three-point land.  Temple’s offense was even worse away from home where they only averaged 64.8 points per game.  The Owls own an effective field goal percentage of just 46.9% which ranks them #292 in the country.    

Iowa was a terrific team early on this season, but the Hawkeyes completely imploded down the stretch.  Iowa went just 2-6 SU over their final eight games of the season, and because of that, the Hawkeyes got a #7 seed.  However, this veteran team is ultra-talented, and based on my power ratings, they are more of a #3 or #4 seed.  Iowa is flying well under the radar, and if they can return to their early season form, the Hawkeyes are an extremely dangerous team.  Iowa has has an efficient offense that is averaging 1.14 points per possession.  Overall, the Hawkeyes average 78.1 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa is simply the much better team, and since my power ratings make them an 8-point favorite, we’ll lay the points with the Hawkeyes in this game on Friday afternoon.           

9* Play IOWA (-).

Oregon State and VCU are virtually identical in all statistical categories.  The two teams have almost identical efficiency ratings on offense and defense, and my power ratings only make VCU 3.5-point favorites over Oregon State.  The lone difference between these two teams is in their style of play.  The Beavers like to play a slow, half-court style while VCU loves to play ‘havoc ball’ where they use full-court pressure the entire game.  That style is extremely difficult for most teams to handle, but Oregon State plays a smart brand of basketball that will eliminate VCU’s strongest advantage.  Overall, the Beavers’ offense gets 51.3% of their points from 2-point range.  That matches-up well against VCU’s defense that allows 55.2% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  That’s one of the worst percentages of any team in the tournament, so Oregon State’s offense holds a significant match-up advantage in this game.      

VCU is no stranger to tournament success, but that was under head coach Shaka Smart.  He left for Texas after last season, so the Rams will be led by first year coach Will Wade.  While he was an assistant under Smart and part of the staff of recent tournament teams, coaches tend to struggle in their first Big Dance.  VCU overachieved this season, and their true colors began to show as the season went on.  The Rams went just 4-3 SU over their last seven games, and that included an ugly loss to George Mason, and losses to questionable tournament teams like Dayton and St. Joseph’s.  VCU’s offensive profile relies heavily on making easy baskets in transition, but that’s going to be difficult in this game.  VCU scores 53.8% of their points from 2-point range, but Oregon State’s defense only allows 48% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Oregon State on Friday afternoon.  

9* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Wichita State got the shaft from the tournament committee; the Shockers are significantly better than a #11 seed.  My power ratings say Wichita State is more like a #4 or #5 seed as they rate even or higher than five of the eight teams slated on those lines.  My power ratings make this game a Pick, so there’s a bit of value on the Shockers.  Wichita State is an excellent team that is well-suited to succeed in tournament basketball because they have an efficient offense and the best defense of any team in the entire tournament.  That defense was on display on Tuesday night when they held a terrific Vanderbilt offense to just 2 points over the final eight minutes of the game.  The Shockers hold opponents to just 0.90 points per possession.  Wichita State allows just 59.1 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field and 32.2% shooting from three-point land. 

Arizona was a much better team early on this season.  The Wildcats lost starting center Kaleb Tarcezewski and guard Allonzo Trier for a period of time, and the team began to struggle.  But since those guys came back, the team hasn’t been able to get back to their early season form.  The Wildcats closed the season on a 3-3 SU slide as their offense couldn’t get anything going.  Arizona’s offense will continue their struggles tonight against the best defense in the country, especially since the Wildcats score the majority of their points from 2-point range.  In fact, Arizona scores 53.1% of their points inside the arc, but only 43.4% of the points scored on Wichita State’s defense come from 2-point range.  This is a terrible matchup for Arizona, so we’ll back Wichita State in this game on Thursday night.   

9* Play WICHITA STATE (+).

Purdue is a team that needs to play at a quick tempo in order to be at their best.  The Boilermakers like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Purdue’s offense struggles in the half court.  The Boilermakers will not get their preferred style of play against an Arkansas-Little Rock team that plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court.  Purdue has been held to less than 70 points nine times this season.  The Boilermakers are just 4-5 SU in those games and 2-7 ATS based on today’s posted line.  Purdue has been held to less than 70 points in seven road games.  They are just 3-4 SU and an ugly 1-6 ATS in those games.  The Boilermakers will be out of their comfort zone in this game, and their offense will struggle mightily because of the slow pace.       

Arkansas-Little Rock is a fundamentally sound and experienced team that will not get trapped into Purdue’s style.  The Trojans are 14-2 SU over their last sixteen games, so this is a team that simply knows how to win.  Overall, Arkansas-Little Rock is 29-4 on the season, including 15-4 in games away from home.  The Trojans play at a slow, methodical pace while running good offense that hits a lot of high percentage shots.  Arkansas-Little Rock averages 70 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 38.7% from three-point land.  Arkansas-Little Rock’s defense has been exceptional in neutral court games this season as they are only giving up 53.7 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field and 30.4% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue hasn’t fared well in slow-paced games this season, so we’ll take the points with Arkansas-Little Rock in this game on Thursday afternoon.                     

9* Play ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (+).

Yale played exceptional basketball this season.  The Bulldogs come into this game with a 22-6 record after opening the season at just 5-5.  That means Yale is 17-1 over their last 18 games, and to their credit, nine of those games were on the road.  The Bulldogs are extremely well coached, and they play a perfect half-court style of basketball that is conducive to NCAA tournament success.  Yale has held 19 of their last 22 opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time.  Overall, the Bulldogs are only allowing 63.5 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense is tremendous by efficiency metrics as they only give up 95.0 points per 100 possessions.  Yale also has a terrific offense that averages 74.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land.  

Baylor was more of an up-tempo offense in years past, but the Bears have slowed way down over the last two years.  But despite their slower style of play, Baylor still struggles mightily in the half court.  The Bears went just 3-7 SU when held to less than 70 points this season, and they are 0-10 ATS when held to less than 70 points based on the posted spread.  Baylor’s three wins came by 2, 3, and 4 points which clearly indicates that the Bears cannot extend leads when playing an opponent that forces them into a half court game.  Baylor went just 7-6 on the road this season, and the Bears own a -1.5 point differential away from home.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Yale on Thursday afternoon.           

10* Play YALE (+).

Texas Tech and Butler are virtually mirror images of each other.  The two teams have identical efficiency ratings on offense and defense, and my power ratings only make Butler 1.5-point favorites over Texas Tech.  The oddsmakers opened this game at Butler -2.5, but the market thought that was low, so the current line is 2 points higher.  I agree with the opening line more than the betting markets on this game, and now we have a lot of value on the Red Raiders.  Texas Tech comes into this game with a 19-12 record, but half of their losses came by single digits.  The Red Raiders like to play at a slow pace while forcing teams into a half-court scrum.  Texas Tech plays solid defense as they hold their opponents to 69.8 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Red Raiders only allow 48.1% of the points scored on them to come from 2-point range.  Butler’s offense scores 51.9% of their points from inside the arc, so they’ll have to crack Texas Tech’s defensive strength to have success in this game.         

Butler played a much different style of basketball this season.  The Bulldogs played at an extremely slow tempo in years past, but they sped way up this season.  Butler is averaging 68.9 possessions per game, and because of the faster tempo, the Bulldogs’ defense has slipped.  They are allowing 101.8 points per 100 possessions; that’s a far cry from the low 90’s they routinely put-up over the last few years.  Butler owns a minuscule +0.3 point differential away from home, and they went just 8-7 SU on the road.  Butler only won 3 away games by more than 6 points this season, so they’ve had a difficult time getting separation on the road.  Texas Tech hits 74.6% from the free throw line, and that strength keeps them in games against teams that are perceived to be better than they are.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Texas Tech on Thursday afternoon.  

9* Play TEXAS TECH (+).

Oklahoma City is just 5-8 SU over their last 13 games, so they are not playing their best basketball right now.  However, the Thunder come into tonight’s game in Boston off one of their best performances of the season, and we expect some regression off that sharp reversal of form.  Oklahoma City beat Portland by 34 points (128-94) at home on Monday night; it was one of their best offensive games of the season.  The Thunder dominated that game from start to finish as they shot 59% (49-83) from the field, 52.9% (9-17) from three-point land, and 80.8% (21-26) from the free throw line.  The Thunder got a complete team effort as seven players scored in double figures while eleven players scored in the game.  Oklahoma City put a lot of focus into that game after losing back-to-back games to the Timberwolves and Spurs.

Boston returns home off a 103-98 loss in Indiana last night.  The Celtics are 7-4 SU over their last eleven games with three of their four losses coming by 5 points or less.  Boston is in a scheduling and situational spot tonight in which they’ve had a lot of success with this season.  When playing at home off a road loss, the Celtics are 7-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming by 8 points.  They actually led that game going into the fourth quarter before getting out-scored by 10 points.  Boston also lost their previous home game, so we expect a big effort tonight.  Overall, the Celtics are 23-11 at home this season where they own a solid +6.1 point differential.  Boston is in a terrific spot tonight, so we’ll take the Celtics plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play CELTICS (+).

Vanderbilt and Wichita State should not be playing tonight as both teams deserved much better from the NCAA selection committee.  The Commodores and Shockers are both quality teams that should have been seeded higher, and the fact they are playing each other is of no coincidence.  Vanderbilt and Wichita State are more than capable of beating the big name teams with high seeds, so it’s a shame one of these teams has to lose tonight.  Vanderbilt only had a 19-13 record on the season, but there’s no shame in that after playing my 44th ranked schedule in the country.  The Commodores crushed #3 seed Texas A&M by 17 points, and they beat #4 seed Kentucky by 12 points.  Vanderbilt only lost to the #1 overall seed Kansas by 7 points on a neutral court as well.  The Commodores can play basketball, and they are severely undervalued tonight as my power ratings only make them a 1-point underdog to Wichita State.

Wichita State is also a very good basketball team.  The Shockers come into tonight’s game with a 24-8 record, and they played a bunch of games early without one of their best players, Fred VanVleet.  Wichita State was overvalued by the oddsmakers down the stretch after posting a 12-game winning streak.  The Shockers went 7-3 SU, but just 5-5 ATS over their last ten games, and they come into tonight on a 3-game ATS slide.  As mentioned above, Wichita State is once again laying too many points in this game, especially against a Vanderbilt team that played a much tougher schedule.  The Shockers played my 104th rated schedule; the worst of any team seeded below the 12 line.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Vanderbilt plus the points on Tuesday night.

9* Play VANDERBILT (+).

Florida failed to make the NCAA tournament for a second consecutive year after going 19-14 this season.  The Gators’ best player, Dorian Finney-Smith, is a senior, so failing to make the Big Dance is a major disappointment for him, and that filters down to the rest of the team.  Florida is actually the #2 seed in the NIT, but because of renovations to their arena, they are forced to play this game on North Florida’s home court.  That is another disadvantage for the Gators in this game.  Florida may also play without starting center John Egbunu; he has a torn ligament in his right thumb and surgery appears imminent.  Florida head coach Mike White is also not sure about his team’s state of mind heading into this game: “The NIT is not the ultimate goal. We’re trying to improve a little bit for down the road. That’s the approach I hope our guys would take.”

North Florida went 22-11 this season, including an excellent 14-2 on their home court.  This is a rare opportunity for the Osprey to host a big name team on their home court.  And since the Gators are also an in-state opponent considered to be a ‘big brother’ to North Florida, the excitement of this game is over the top for the Osprey.  North Florida has a terrific offense that is averaging 87.5 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 40.3% from three-point land.  Their three-point shooting is of major concern for Florida head coach White: “It’s going to be a very difficult matchup for our bigs to have to defend in a way that they’ve rarely, rarely defended this season.”  North Florida has a lot of motivation for this game, and Florida does not, so we’ll take the Osprey plus the points in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play NORTH FLORIDA (+).

Cleveland will complete their 4-game West Coast road trip tonight in Utah.  The Cavaliers have gone 3-0 SU and ATS so far with wins over the Kings, Lakers, and Clippers.  Cleveland played yesterday afternoon in Los Angeles against the Clippers, and the Cavaliers dominated that game from start to finish.  Cleveland won by 24 points (114-90) after shooting 48.8% (41-84) from the field and 48.6% (18-37) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers got a complete team effort as six players scored in double figures while ten players scored in the game.  Cleveland put all of their focus into that spotlight national TV game against the Clippers, and after such an efficient performance, we expect regression tonight, especially since the Cavaliers have to play without rest in the thin air and altitude of Utah.

Utah returns home off an easy 108-99 win in Sacramento last night.  The Jazz never trailed in that game, and they led by as many as 25 points, so the 9-point winning margin is misleading.  Utah is in good current form as they are 3-2 SU over their last five games with one of their losses coming in San Antonio against the Spurs.  Utah has played six of their last eight games on the road; this will be just their third home game since February 29th.  The Jazz are 20-13 at home this season where they own a solid +4.3 point differential.  Utah has played outstanding defense on their home court all season; they are allowing just 94.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land.  Gordon Hayward is not expected to play tonight for the Jazz, but teams often step up their play in the first game without a leading scorer, plus the opponent often overlooks the team.  This is likely tonight since Cleveland is in such a poor scheduling and situational spot.  Utah is catching Cleveland at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Jazz plus the points in this home game on Monday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

Memphis and Connecticut will play for the third time this season.  The Huskies won the first two games; they beat Memphis 81-78 at home and they won by 20 points (77-57) in Memphis.  However, today’s game is much more meaningful, especially for Memphis.  The Tigers’ only hope to get into the NCAA tournament is by winning this game.  In their first two games of the conference tournament, Memphis has played exceptional basketball.  The Tigers have held their two opponents to just 67 and 54 points on a combined 37.7% (40-106) shooting from the field and 24.3% (9-37) shooting from three-point land.  Memphis’ offense scored 89 and 74 points in those games while being very aggressive; they totaled 52 free throw attempts in their two games.  Memphis also got complete team efforts in both wins as they had four guys score in double figures against Tulsa while five guys scored in double figures against Tulane.

Connecticut’s path to the conference championship game was much different.  The Huskies had to play much better competition; their wins came against Cincinnati and Temple.  However, the way they won those games sets them up in a big regression spot this afternoon.  Connecticut beat Cincinnati is a wild and crazy 4 overtime game on Friday afternoon.  The Huskies had two guys play 54 minutes or more with four guys playing 43 minutes or more.  Connecticut had seven guys play 15 minutes or more overall, including two guys that hardly play at all.  Those extended minutes figured to have an impact on Connecticut’s game yesterday against Temple, but the Huskies played another bang-up game.  They shot 51.8% (29-56) from the field and 50% (7-14) from three-point land.  Two guys played 34 minutes or more with six guys playing 20 minutes or more.  The Huskies will regress in today’s game, so we’ll take Memphis plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play MEMPHIS (+).

Utah and Oregon will play for the third time this season.  The Ducks won the first two meetings, but the Utes had legitimate excuses for their poor play in both of those games.  In the first meeting in Utah, the Utes were just returning home off a 3-game road trip.  That is a rare scheduling spot in college basketball, and Utah was simply unprepared to play; it was their lone home loss of the season.  In the second meeting in Oregon, the Utes were on the tail end of a grueling road trip: “We’ve been in a hotel room 18 nights out of 38 since we started league play,” Utah coach Larry Krystowiak said after that loss in Oregon.  “It hasn’t exactly been easy to play 7 out of 11 on the road. We’ve grown a little road weary.”  Despite the poor scheduling spot, Utah led for most of the first half before losing the game by 10 points.

Oregon survived a crazy game in overtime against Arizona last night.  The Ducks led by 15 points at the half, and by 4 points with just 12.8 seconds left.  Arizona had a chance to win the game at the free throw line with no time left on the clock, but after making one of two free throws, the game went to overtime.  Oregon went on to win 95-89, but that game took a lot of energy out of the Ducks.  Oregon had four guys play 37 minutes or more, and the team combined to shoot 47.8% (32-67) from the field and 52.6% (10-19) from three-point land.  We expect regression from Oregon tonight as they will be playing on tired legs.  Utah also won in overtime last night, but their game against California was less taxing as it was played at a slow pace with a lot of fouls called.  The game had little flow, and Utah’s offense shot just 43.1% (25-58) from the field and 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land.  Utah has plenty of motivation for this game, and since we expect better offensive production, we’ll back the Utes in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play UTAH (+).

New Orleans comes into tonight’s game in Milwaukee on a back-to-back set after playing in Memphis last night.  The Pelicans lost that game 121-114 in overtime after blowing a 99-97 lead with 58 seconds left to play in regulation time.  That type of loss comes with a hangover, especially for a bad team that played a lot of minutes.  New Orleans had four guys play 40 minutes or more with five guys playing 36 minutes or more.  The Pelicans had six guys play 25 minutes or more overall, including two guys on the second unit.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since New Orleans is playing on back-to-back nights.  This will also be the Pelicans’ third game in four nights with all three of those games coming on the road.

Milwaukee will play their second consecutive home game after beating Miami 114-108 on Wednesday night.  The Bucks have had two full days of rest to prepare for tonight’s game, and that gives them a huge scheduling advantage over New Orleans.  Milwaukee has played much better basketball on their home court this season.  The Bucks are 19-12 at home compared to just 8-26 on the road.  The same is true for New Orleans; the Pelicans are just 7-25 on the road compared to 17-15 on their home court.  Milwaukee owns a positive point differential at home; their offense is averaging 102.7 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three-point land.  New Orleans owns a -6.8 point differential on the road where their defense is allowing 106.1 points per game.  New Orleans is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with Milwaukee in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play BUCKS (-).

New York comes into tonight’s game in Los Angeles off a 128-97 blowout win in Phoenix on Wednesday night.  The 128 points scored by the Knicks was one of their best offensive performances of the season.  New York had seven players score in double digits while shooting 56.1% (46-82) from the field and an incredible 66.7% (16-24) from three-point land.  The Knicks also hit 83.3% (20-24) from the free throw line.  New York’s offense played a perfect game, but we expect major regression tonight.  Prior to that offensive outburst, the Knicks did not eclipse more than 105 points in 14 of their previous 16 games.  New York’s offensive performance against the Suns was an anomaly, and there’s a high probability that the Knicks will not come close to matching that efficient production.

Los Angeles returns home off a 120-108 blowout loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night.  The Clippers were in a terrible spot for that game, so we can dismiss the results.  Los Angeles played one of their worst defensive games of the season as they allowed the Thunder to shoot 52.7% (48-91) from the field in that game.  Off that loss, and with a return home, we expect a much better defensive performance by the Clippers tonight.  Los Angeles also lost their previous home game because of poor defense; they allowed 107 points to the Hawks.  Prior to their awful defensive effort against the Thunder, Los Angeles had held six of their previous nine opponents to 98 points or less.  In an earlier season meeting, the Clippers held the Knicks to just 88 points on 38.8% (33-85) shooting from the field and 22.2% (4-18) shooting from three-point land.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Knicks and Clippers on Friday night. 

9* Play UNDER the total.

Notre Dame comes into tonight’s game against North Carolina on a back-to-back set after beating Duke in overtime yesterday afternoon.  The Irish won that game 84-79 after coming back from a 16-point second half deficit.  Notre Dame plays an extremely short rotation, and they had three of their starters play 41 minutes or more while all five starters played 35 minutes or more.  The Irish only play a 6-man rotation, and the extended minutes last night will have a major impact on tonight’s game, especially since Notre Dame will be forced into a fast-paced game by North Carolina.  The Irish also shot 50% (30-60) from the field last night, so a repeat performance is highly unlikely simply because of the terrible situational and scheduling Notre Dame is in.  Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 75 points or more in three of their last four games, and tonight they will be playing on tired legs.

North Carolina cruised to an 88-71 win over Pittsburgh yesterday.  The Tar Heels had eight guys play 14 minutes or more, so they are a much deeper team than Notre Dame, and they will also be much fresher for tonight’s game.  North Carolina is also taking this game seriously after losing to the Irish earlier this season.  The Tar Heels blew a 15-point lead on Notre Dame’s home court in that game.  North Carolina also lost to Notre Dame in last year’s ACC tournament; the Tar Heels blew an 8-point lead with less than ten minutes to play in that game.  Those blown losses will have North Carolina primed for a peak performance tonight.  Overall, the Tar Heels’ offense is averaging 83.1 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field this season.  North Carolina is catching Notre Dame at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Tar Heels in this game on Friday night.

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

UNLV comes into tonight’s game against Fresno State on a back-to-back set after beating Air Force in triple overtime last night.  The Rebels won that game 108-104 despite three walk-ons playing the majority of the third overtime.  UNLV had three guys play 54 minutes or more with four guys playing 41 minutes or more.  The Rebels had seven guys play 17 minutes or more overall, including two guys on the second unit.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since UNLV is playing on back-to-back nights with a depleted roster.  The Rebels are without four key members of their team due to injuries and eligibility issues, and they survived last night with three players who have seen very limited court time this season.  UNLV is an extremely shorthanded team, and this is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Rebels.

Fresno State has already beaten UNLV twice this season, and we expect more of the same tonight.  The Bulldogs and Rebels played in two close games, but UNLV played with a fully healthy roster in those games.  They still couldn’t beat Fresno State, and now with a depleted team, it’s highly unlikely UNLV will be able to beat the Bulldogs tonight.  Fresno State is on a 6-game winning streak, and they are 8-1 SU over their last nine games with their lone loss coming in overtime.  The Bulldogs are in excellent current form, especially on the offensive end of the court.  Fresno State has averaged 80.8 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Fresno State is catching UNLV at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play FRESNO STATE (-).

Los Angeles and Oklahoma City just played a week ago with the Clippers winning 103-98 on their home court.  That was an extremely fortunate win by Los Angeles as they trailed by 17 points going into the fourth quarter.  The Clippers out-scored Oklahoma City 35-13 over the final 12 minutes of the game to escape with the win.  Los Angeles was terrible in that game as they shot just 40.8% (40-98) from the field and 28.1% (9-32) from three-point land.  The Clippers also got dominated on the glass while getting out-rebounded by 18 (63-45), including an 18-12 deficit on the offensive glass.  Los Angeles will now play the rematch on the Thunder’s home court, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll win this game with a repeat of their performance in last week’s game.  The Clippers were in an excellent spot for their last game in Dallas which resulted in a 109-90 blowout win, but they are taking a huge step-up in class tonight against a motivated opponent.

Oklahoma City returns home off a 4-game road trip where they went just 2-2, including a loss in Los Angeles.  The Thunder have also lost their last three home games where they are still 25-8 on the season.  Oklahoma City is in a prime spot for a peak performance tonight, especially since they are playing with legitimate revenge.  In that game they lost to the Clippers, the Thunder led by as many as 22 points despite terrible offensive play.  Oklahoma City shot just 39.8% (39-98) from the field and 28.6% (10-35) from the field.  However, the Thunder owned an impressive 27-11 edge in fast break points while controlling the glass as mentioned above.  Those two dominating stats show that Oklahoma City simply owns a distinctive match-up advantage against the Clippers.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play THUNDER (-).

UCLA and USC will play for the third time this season.  The Trojans dominated the first two meetings, winning by 14 points at UCLA and by 19 points on their home court.  UCLA was simply overmatched in both of those games, and we expect more of the same tonight.  The Bruins come into this game with a 15-16 overall record, but 11 of their wins came on their home court.  UCLA is just 4-10 away from home with their average loss coming by 10.6 points per game.  UCLA’s defense is giving up 78.6 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from the field.  The Bruins have lost four straight games, and they are just 4-9 over their last 13 games.  They lost their last two games of the regular season at home, and that’s a clear indication that UCLA has quit on the season.    

USC also went cold as the season wore down; the Trojans come into tonight’s game with a 1-4 record over their last five games.  However, two of those games were on the road while their two of their home games were against Utah and Oregon.  There’s no shame in losing to those teams, so we can dismiss USC’s recent results.  The Trojans are no lock for the NCAA tournament, and they know they need to have a good showing in the Pac 12 tournament to secure an at-large bid.  “I’m pretty sure if we win, that would solidify our run this year, and we’ll get a bid in the tournament,” Julian Jacobs said.  “But say we lose, I think we’ll end up having to play in a play-in game or something like that. We really just want to beat UCLA.”  USC has plenty of motivation for this game, and since they’ve crushed the Bruins twice already, we’ll back the Trojans in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Washington had a nice 4-game winning streak going prior to losing their last two games to Indiana and Cleveland.  Their last loss came at home to Pacers, but that defeat came by just a single point (100-99).  The Wizards will now hit the road and begin a 3-game road trip in Portland tonight.  Washington’s next three games are all critically important for their playoff hopes, and since they are coming off a home loss, we expect a peak performance by the Wizards tonight.  Washington’s offense was in excellent form prior to their last two games; the Wizards had scored 103 points or more in six consecutive games.  Their offensive success will return tonight against a Portland team that has allowed 356 total points in their last three games.  Since the All-Star break, the Trail Blazers’ defense has given up 102 points or more in eight of ten games.  Overall, Portland has allowed 107.7 points per game to their opponents since the break.

Portland was one of the hottest teams in the NBA from mid-January to the beginning of March.  The Trail Blazers went 18-4 SU over a 22-game span, but most of those wins came over inferior opponents.  Things have turned sour for Portland as they come into tonight on a 3-game losing streak with two of the losses coming by 23 and 20 points.  Portland was expected to be one of the worst teams in the league after losing four of their five starters from last year’s team.  But the Trail Blazers overachieved greatly during their recent run, and now it’s time for them to regress.  Portland is returning home off a 6-game road trip, and they’ve had just one day to settle in.  Washington comes into tonight’s game with two full days of rest, so they have a scheduling advantage over Portland.  The Trail Blazers are overvalued right now, so we’ll take Washington plus the points in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play WIZARDS (+).

Los Angeles has played a tough schedule since the All-Star break, but the Clippers have managed to go 5-3 SU in those games.  Los Angeles went 2-1 against the Spurs, Warriors, and Thunder which is certainly no easy feat.  The Clippers hit the road off a poor home performance where they lost 107-97 to the Hawks.  Los Angeles was in a natural letdown spot for that game after making a big comeback in their previous game against Oklahoma City.  The Clippers’ offense was terrible in defeat as they only shot 43% (34-79) from the field and 37.5% (12-32) from three-point land.  Los Angeles was horrendous from the free throw line as well; they shot just 60.7% (17-28) from the stripe.  The Clippers turned the ball over 19 times in that game as well.  Off such a poor performance, we expect Los Angeles to bounce back strong tonight in Dallas, especially since they are catching the Mavericks at the perfect time.

Dallas comes into tonight’s game against Los Angeles on a back-to-back set after playing in Denver last night.  The Mavericks lost that game 116-114 in overtime after blowing a 106-102 lead with 21 seconds left to play in regulation time.  That type of loss comes with a hangover, especially for an older team that played a lot of minutes.  Dallas had four guys play 35 minutes or more with three guys playing 38 minutes or more.  The Mavericks had seven guys play 24 minutes or more overall, including three guys on the second unit.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since Dallas is playing on back-to-back nights.  Los Angeles is simply the better team, and with the Mavericks in a terrible situational and scheduling spot, we’ll lay the points with the Clippers in this game on Monday night.

10* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Wisconsin has been a major surprise this season as the Badgers come into tonight’s game at Purdue with a 20-10 record.  Wisconsin was supposed to be in a rebuilding season after making the Final Four last season, and head coach Bo Ryan retiring, but the team has caught many of their opponents off guard.  Wisconsin is on a 4-game winning streak, and they are 11-1 over their last twelve games.  But eight of those opponents were bad teams.  Wisconsin is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at Purdue as the Badgers will be playing a back-to-back road set for just the second time in conference play this season.  The Badgers lost 69-57 at Michigan State in their lone try in this situation.  This will also be Wisconsin’s fifth road game in their last seven games overall.  Wisconsin lost to Purdue at home earlier this season; the Boilermakers held the Badgers to just 38.6% (22-57) shooting from the field and 29.4% (5-17) shooting from three-point land.  That game was on Wisconsin’s strong home court, so it’s hard to imagine their offense being any better with the rematch being on the Boilermakers’ home court.

Purdue is 23-7 on the season, including a 16-1 mark at home where they own an excellent +18.5 point differential.  The Boilermakers play outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 63.3 points per game on 37.7% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 81.8 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue is playing their final home game of the season, so they will bring their best effort, especially since they still have something to play for.  “We want to get a top-four seed, and we can control that by winning the game,” P.J. Thompson said.  “If we can get Wisconsin twice, I think that would be huge, with the win coming off Nebraska, and finishing out for the seniors.”  Purdue is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Boilermakers in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play PURDUE (-).

Brooklyn has had a miserable season; the Nets come into tonight’s game in Minnesota with an 18-44 record, including a 7-22 mark on the road.  Brooklyn is currently on a 9-game road trip, and tonight’s game will be their seventh of the trip.  The Nets have played in multiple time zones, and they’ve gone in and out of altitude as well.  Brooklyn won 121-120 in overtime last night in Denver on a last-second tip-in.  However, last night’s win sets the Nets up in a flat spot for tonight’s game against Minnesota, especially since they exerted a lot of energy in a game that had 17 lead changes while being played in thin air and altitude.  The Nets had five guys play 33 minutes or more with nine guys playing 16 minutes or more.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since Brooklyn will be playing their seventh game in twelve nights with all of those games coming on the road. 

Minnesota has played a tough schedule since the All-Star break, so their record is poor.  But the Timberwolves were expected to lose games to the Celtics, Raptors, Mavericks, Wizards, and Grizzlies.  The Timberwolves return home off a loss in Milwaukee, and they also lost their previous home game as well, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  Minnesota finally gets a team below their level, and they already beat Brooklyn with little trouble earlier this season.  Back in December, Minnesota won 100-85 in Brooklyn.  They led that game by as many as 20 points, and they out-scored the Nets in three of four quarters.  Minnesota is simply a better team than Brooklyn, and with the Nets in a terrible situational and scheduling spot, we’ll lay the points with the Timberwolves in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Pittsburgh is 20-9 on the season, but the Panthers have won 15 of those games on their home court.  Pittsburgh is just 3-5 in true road games with their average loss coming by 11.6 points per game.  The Panthers began the season at 14-1, but they’ve gone just 6-8 over their last 14 games, including 2-5 on the road.  The majority of Pittsburgh’s wins have come against inferior competition like Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Boston College.  Pittsburgh’s offense is only averaging 64.4 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Their lack of offense has been a major reason why they haven’t won road games with consistency this season.

Georgia Tech returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 56-53 loss at Louisville.  That was an impressive showing considering the Cardinals were playing their final home game in a season they are banned from post-season play.  The Yellow Jackets will now play their final home game of the season, and with four senior starters, we expect a peak performance this afternoon.  The Yellow Jackets are averaging 76.6 points per game at home, and they scored 84 points at Pittsburgh earlier this season.  Georgia Tech is holding their opponents to 69.5 points per game on 43.1% shooting from the field and 32.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll back the Yellow Jackets in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (-).

West Virginia is a good team, and the Mountaineers come into today’s game at Baylor with a solid 23-7 record.  West Virginia is 6-4 in true road games this season, but their wins have come against inferior competition like Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Kansas State.  All four of those teams are poor, so winning on the road against those schools is unimpressive.  West Virginia has been unable to win on the road against capable teams; they lost by 7 points at Texas, 10 points at Kansas, and by 17 points at Florida.  Overall, West Virginia’s defense is giving up 75.9 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 38.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Baylor returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 73-71 loss at Oklahoma.  The Bears have played three of their last four games on the road, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance this afternoon.  Baylor will be playing their final home game of the season, and they have three seniors starters to honor.  The Bears are 15-4 at home where they are averaging 79.4 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land.  Baylor’s defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 66.6 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Baylor in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play BAYLOR (-).

Utah has had terrible results since the All-Star break.  The Jazz have gone just 2-6 in their last eight games, and they come into tonight’s game in Memphis on a 4-game losing streak.  However, the recent results can be attributed to the level of competition Utah has played.  Losing to teams like the Spurs, Celtics, and Raptors was expected.  Utah also played some of the hottest teams in the NBA like the Trail Blazers and Wizards.  Despite losing, Utah has been a competitive team as four of the losses have come by 10 points or less with three of the losses coming by 5 points or less.  Utah’s defense has allowed 100 points or more in back-to-back games.  They’ve done that ten other times so far this season.  In the game following those poor defensive efforts, the Jazz have allowed just 95.1 points per game.  Utah also went 7-3 SU in those games, so we expect a strong bounce back effort from the Jazz tonight.      

Memphis has gone 5-2 since the All-Star break, but the opponents played had a lot to do with those winning results.  The Grizzlies beat the Lakers twice, Timberwolves, Nuggets, and Kings.  Those four teams are all terrible, and unlikely to make the playoffs.  Utah is currently 1.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, so Memphis is actually stepping-up in class for this game.  The Memphis front office got rid of Courtney Lee and Jeff Green at the trade deadline, and they acquired nothing but baggage in return with Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hairston, and Chris Andersen.  The moves made by management were to accumulate draft picks so they can rebuild their old and aging roster.  The recent wins have come as a major surprise, especially since Memphis’ current roster is one of the worst in the NBA.  The Grizzlies have been winning with smoke and mirrors, so we’ll back Utah in this game on Friday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

California has won seven consecutive games as they come into tonight’s game at Arizona with a 21-8 record.  However, five of their last seven games came on their home court where they are a perfect 18-0 on the season.  California is just 3-6 in true road games this season, and this game will be their stiffest road challenge of the season.  The Golden Bears beat Arizona 74-73 at home earlier this season, but California was extremely fortunate to win that game.  The Wildcats were missing one of their better players, Alonzo Trier, in that game.  Despite that, Arizona out-shot California 50.9%-45% from the field and 44.4%-36.4% from three-point land.  California will now face Arizona on the road where their defense is allowing 70.8 points per game on 37.1% shooting from three-point land this season.  

Arizona returns home off back-to-back road losses at Colorado and at Utah.  That back-to-back road trip is the toughest in the Pac 12, so those losses can be excused.  Arizona owns one of the strongest home courts in all of college basketball.  The Wildcats are 15-1 at home where they own an incredible +20.4 point differential this season.  Arizona is averaging 85 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the field and 39.4% shooting from three-point land.  The Wildcats’ defense is holding opponents to just 64.6 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Arizona in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play ARIZONA (-).

Connecticut is once again having a good season as they come into tonight’s game at SMU with a 20-9 record.  However, the Huskies have lost two of their last three games, and they are just 3-3 over their last six games.  Connecticut is simply in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game at SMU.  The Huskies will be playing their third road game over their last four games, and this will also be their third game in the last eight days.  Connecticut’s offense has struggled away from home all season; the Huskies are only averaging 67.7 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field.  In their earlier defeat of SMU, the Huskies only scored 68 points on the Mustangs’ defense, and that game was on Connecticut’s home court.

SMU is having a tremendous season as they come into this game with a 24-4 record.  The Mustangs are 15-1 at home where they own an excellent +17.7 point differential.  SMU plays outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 61.9 points per game on 39.2% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  SMU’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 79.6 points per game on 50.7% shooting from the field and 41.7% shooting from three-point land.  SMU is banned from post-season play, and this is will be the final home game for their two best players who are both seniors.  The Mustangs will bring their best effort, so we’ll lay the points with SMU in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play SMU (-).

Cincinnati is a good team, and the Bearcats come into tonight’s game at Houston with a solid 21-8 record.  Cincinnati is just 6-5 in true road games this season, but their wins have come against inferior competition like East Carolina, South Florida, Central Florida, and Bowling Green.  All four of those teams are terrible, so winning on the road against those schools is unimpressive.  Cincinnati has been unable to win on the road against capable teams; they lost by 10 points at Xavier, 4 points at Memphis, and by 2 points at Temple.  In their three road losses listed above, the Bearcats scored 65 points or less.  Overall, Cincinnati’s offense is only averaging 63.8 points per game on 38.5% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Houston is having an excellent season, but the Cougars are flying under the radar.  Houston comes into this game with a 21-8 record, including a 14-3 mark at home.  They’ve played three of their last four games on the road, and since they lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Houston’s offense is averaging 80.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field at home.  The Cougars’ defense is holding opponents to just 67.1 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 29% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a big effort by Houston here, so we’ll back the Cougars in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play HOUSTON (+).

Georgia comes into tonight’s game at South Carolina with a 15-12 record, but 13 of those wins have come on their home court.  Georgia is just 2-8 in true road games with those eight losses coming by an average of 10.8 points per game.  Four of their eight losses have come by double digits, so the Bulldogs have not been too competitive in their away games.  Georgia is in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Bulldogs went into their last game off three competitive games; they won at Mississippi State as 4-point underdogs, they lost by 4 points at home to Florida, and they lost at Auburn by 3 points.  They finally put everything together in their last game when they beat Mississippi 80-68 at home.  Now they must hit the road where their defense is giving up 75 points per game.

South Carolina returns home off a 10-point road loss at Mississippi State on Saturday afternoon.  Tonight will be the final home game for three starting seniors, so we expect a peak performance from South Carolina in this game.  The Gamecocks are 15-1 at home where they own a solid +11.8 point differential on the season.  South Carolina’s offense has been outstanding at home where they are averaging 80.5 points per game.  The Gamecocks lost at Georgia earlier this season, but South Carolina only shot 31.6% (18-57) from the field and 31.8% (7-22) from three-point land in that game.  The Gamecocks’ offense will play much better tonight, so we’ll lay the points with South Carolina in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (-).

Memphis is just 16-13 on the season, and 14 of their wins have come on their home court, including their 92-82 win over Tulsa on Sunday afternoon.  We won a Best Bet selection on Memphis in that game, but we’re going to play against them tonight.  The Tigers are just 1-7 in true road games this season with their average loss coming by 9 points per game.  Prior to their last win, Memphis was just 3-8 over their previous eleven games, including 1-5 on the road.  The Tigers’ defense has been horrendous on the road all season.  Memphis is giving up 85.1 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Memphis did beat Temple at home earlier this season, but they only won that game by 2 points (65-63) despite owning a +18 point edge from the free throw line and a +21 edge in free throw attempts.

Temple is 18-10 on the season, including a 10-3 record at home.  The Owls are a veteran team that starts three seniors.  Tonight will be the last home game of their careers, so we expect a peak performance, especially since they blew a win at Memphis earlier this season.  Temple led that game by 11 points in the second half before losing the game late.  Temple’s defense has been solid at home where they are only allowing 67.5 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  Temple is in a terrific spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Owls in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play TEMPLE (-).

Detroit lost their first two games after the All-Star break, but since then, the Pistons have gone a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS.  Detroit won at Cleveland, and they also beat Toronto at home, so they’ve played good competition as well.  The Pistons acquired Tobias Harris at the trade deadline, and since being inserted into the starting lineup, Detroit’s offense has come alive.  “We’ve been much better sharing the ball,” Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy said.  “What it does, is that when the ball is moving, you create good feelings, energy and guys want to play.”  The players feel the same way: “It just shows the team chemistry is coming along,” said Tobias Harris.  “Everybody’s looking for each other and playing off each other. I think the biggest thing is what we say when we’re gathering is ‘Family on three,’ and guys are praying like a family.”  Detroit has scored 327 points in their last three games, so they are in excellent current form. 

San Antonio’s incredible season has continued since the All-Star break; the Spurs are 5-1 with all of those games coming on the road.  But tonight presents a poor situational and scheduling spot for San Antonio.  The Spurs will play their first home game since February 6th, and it will be just their second home game in a month.  San Antonio goes on their annual ‘Rodeo Trip’ each season, but the first game back is often difficult and challenging.  The Spurs have been off for the last three days as well, and extra rest has not been good for this veteran team this season.  San Antonio is just 1-2 SU and ATS with 3 days of rest or more, and their offense has averaged just 103 points per game in that situation.  Detroit is playing San Antonio at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Pistons plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play PISTONS (+).

Mississippi State comes into tonight’s game at in-state rival Mississippi with a losing 13-15 record; 9 of their wins have come on their home court.  Mississippi State is 2-8 in true road games with those eight losses coming by an average of 9.4 points per game.  Four of their eight losses have come by double digits, so the Bulldogs have not been too competitive in their away games.  Mississippi State is in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Bulldogs went into their last game off three consecutive close games; they beat Vanderbilt by 1 point, they won at Alabama by 6 points, and they lost at Texas A&M by 2 points.  They finally put everything together in their last game when they beat South Carolina 68-58 at home.  Now they must hit the road where their defense is giving up 76.8 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from the field. 

Mississippi returns home off a blowout road loss at Georgia on Saturday.  We won a Best Bet selection against the Rebels in that game, so their loss was expected, and it can be easily dismissed.  Mississippi has played three of their last four games on the road, and with tonight being the last home game for three starting seniors, we expect a peak performance.  The Rebels are 11-2 at home on the season.  Mississippi’s offense has been outstanding at home where they are averaging 79.9 points per game.  The Rebels lost at Mississippi State earlier this season, but they only lost that game by 6 points despite the Bulldogs shooting 51.9% from the field, 50% from three-point land, and 88.2% from the free throw line.  Mississippi is in a terrific spot for a big bounce win, so we’ll lay the points with the Rebels in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play MISSISSIPPI (-).

Indiana is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Iowa with a 23-6 record.  However, 16 of those wins have come on their home court, and they are just 5-4 in true road games this season.  Indiana will be playing back-to-back road games, and this will also be their sixth road game over their last ten games.  This is a poor scheduling and situational spot for Indiana, especially since the Hoosiers’ defense has been horrendous on the road all season.  The Hoosiers are giving up 72.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Indiana did beat Iowa at home earlier this season, but the Hawkeyes’ offense scored 78 points on 46% (29-63) shooting from the field and 38.9% (7-18) shooting from three-point land in that game.  

Iowa was having an excellent season, but they’ve been struggling as of late.  The Hawkeyes are just 1-4 over their last five games, including three straight losses coming into tonight.  But this is a fantastic bounce back spot for Iowa, especially since they also lost their previous home game.  Iowa is a veteran team that starts four seniors who have won 87 games as a group.  Tonight will be the last home game of their careers, so we expect a peak performance.  Iowa is 13-1 at home where they own a terrific +15.1 point differential on the season.  Iowa’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 81.7 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa is in an excellent bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Hawkeyes in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play IOWA (-).

Virginia hits the road after beating North Carolina 79-74 on Saturday night.  We cashed a Best Bet selection on the Cavaliers in that game, but tonight we’re going to play against them.  That was a big win for Virginia, and we expect the Cavaliers to suffer a letdown tonight, especially since they are playing on the road in a quick turnaround situation.  Virginia is just 4-6 in true road games this season; they’ve lost their last two conference road games.  The Cavaliers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, but so does Clemson, and that negates Virginia’s style of play advantage.  The Cavaliers are also going from a North Carolina team that plays at an ultra-fast tempo to a Clemson team that plays at the opposite pace.  That type of dramatic stylistic change often hampers offensive production, so Virginia will have a difficult time winning this game by margin tonight. 

Clemson is having a mediocre season as the Tigers come into this game with a 16-12 record.  However, they are off back-to-back road losses at NC State and at Georgia Tech.  The Tigers return home where they are 13-3 on the season, so we expect a peak performance in tonight’s game, especially since this will be their last home game for two seniors.  Clemson owns a solid +12.8 point differential at home.  The Tigers’ defense has been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 57.8 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a big bounce back game by Clemson here, so we’ll take the Tigers plus the points on Tuesday night.

9* Play CLEMSON (+).

Memphis will play their third consecutive road game, and their fourth road game in six games since the All-Star break.  That is not a good thing, especially for a team that will be playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  The Grizzlies won 102-101 in Denver last month, but Memphis was playing with a much different roster back then.  The Memphis front office cleaned house after that game when they got rid of Courtney Lee and Jeff Green and acquired nothing but baggage in return with Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hairston, and Chris Andersen.  The Grizzlies are already without Marc Gasol for the rest of the season.  The moves made by management were to accumulate draft picks as they rebuild their old and aging roster over the next couple of seasons.  Since making the moves, Memphis has gone 3-2 SU with two wins over the hapless Lakers, and a lucky comeback win at home over Minnesota.  The Grizzlies were not competitive against the Raptors, and they lost to a terrible Phoenix team.  Memphis’ current roster simply has no business laying points on the road.

Denver returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 122-116 overtime loss in Dallas.  The Nuggets also lost their last two home games, so we expect a peak performance in tonight’s game.  Denver is 0-17 this season when getting out-rebounded, but the Nuggets should dominate the glass tonight.  In the last two meetings against Memphis, the Nuggets had a 99-80 rebounding edge, including a 29-15 edge on the offensive glass.  The Grizzlies have also historically struggled in Denver; Memphis is 4-26 SU their last 30 visits to the Mile High City.  Denver’s offense has scored 100 points or more in nine consecutive home games, and in ten of their last eleven home games overall.  Memphis has allowed 105.4 points per game in their last five games, so the Nuggets will have a lot of offensive success tonight.  We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Monday night.

10* Play NUGGETS (+)

Tulsa is a good team, and the Golden Hurricane come into today’s game at Memphis with a solid 19-9 record.  Tulsa is 6-4 in true road games this season, but their wins have come against inferior competition like Missouri State, East Carolina, Tulane, and Central Florida.  All four of those teams are terrible, so winning on the road against those schools is unimpressive.  Tulsa has been unable to win on the road against capable teams; they lost by 19 points at Cincinnati, 15 points at Houston, and by 4 points at Temple.  In their three road losses listed above, the Golden Hurricane gave up 80 points per game.  Overall, Tulsa’s defense is allowing 71.2 points per game on the road this season.  Tulsa will be playing their fourth road game over their last six games, and with the final home game for seven seniors on deck, this game is one they can easily be overlooking.      

Memphis is having a mediocre season as the Tigers come into this game with a 15-13 record.  However, they are off back-to-back losses with their last being a 69-62 home loss to SMU.  There’s no shame in losing to the Mustangs, and off that loss, we expect a peak performance this afternoon, especially since this will be the last home game for two starting seniors who average a combined 26.6 points per game.  Memphis is 13-6 at home where they are holding opponents to just 64.9 points per game on 37.2% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a big bounce back game by Memphis here, so we’ll back the Tigers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play MEMPHIS (+).

North Carolina comes into this game with a 23-5 record, but 18 of those wins have come either on their home court or on a neutral court.  The Tar Heels are just 5-4 in true road games this season, and two of those losses have come against teams that play exactly the same way as tonight’s opponent.  North Carolina is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Tar Heels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, North Carolina’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Tar Heels will not get their preferred style of play tonight against Virginia.  The Tar Heels are 2-2 this season when held to less than 70 points; their wins came against bad teams like NC State and Boston College while the losses came at Louisville and at Northern Iowa.  The posted total is currently 137.5, so the oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game.  That is the lowest total on a North Carolina game this season; their previous low was 144.5 in a game they scored just 68 points against Boston College.

Virginia returns home off a 64-61 loss at Miami, Fla on Monday night.  The Cavaliers are a perfect 13-0 at home where they own an outstanding +14.6 point differential on the season.  Virginia plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Cavaliers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with an excellent defense that is holding opponents to just 57.6 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 32.9% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  Virginia is 2-1 against North Carolina in the last three meetings, and that’s because the Tar Heels are clueless when they are forced to play half-court basketball.  Virginia’s style will frustrate North Carolina, so we’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play VIRGINIA (-).

Oklahoma is having a fantastic season as they come into today’s game at Texas with a 22-5 record.  The Sooners have been terrific on both ends of the court, but this game against the Longhorns is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma.  The Sooners will be playing on the road for the third time in four games, and this will also be their seventh road game over their last twelve games.  The Sooners haven’t been as dominant on the road either where they are just 6-4 in true road games this season; they survived by 2 points at LSU and at Oklahoma State, they won by 3 points at Hawaii, and they only won by 6 points at Memphis.  Overall, the Sooners’ defense is giving up 77.6 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Texas is having a fantastic season considering they are in the first year of head coach Shaka Smart’s system, and without their best player because of injury.  Texas comes into this game with an 18-10 record, including a 13-2 mark at home where they own a terrific +9.9 point differential on the season.  Texas’ defense has been phenomenal at home where they are allowing just 65.3 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field and 30.2% shooting from three-point land.  Texas only lost by 3 points (63-60) at Oklahoma earlier this month after blowing a 9-point halftime lead.  The Longhorns actually led that game for all but 49 seconds which is quite impressive considering Oklahoma is 13-1 on their home court this season.  With Texas off a loss in their previous home game, we expect a peak performance here, so we’ll back the Longhorns in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play TEXAS (+).

Mississippi has a decent 18-10 record on the season, but eleven of those wins have come on their home court.  The Rebels are just 6-6 in true road games this season with four of those wins coming against inferior out-of-conference opponents.  Mississippi is just 2-5 on the road in conference play, and those wins came against Missouri and Auburn who are the two worst teams in the SEC.  The Rebels’ five losses have come by an average of 11.4 points per game.  Overall, Mississippi has played the #80th rated schedule this season, so the majority of their wins have come against weak opponents.  To compare, Georgia has played the #48th rated schedule this season.  Mississippi’s defense is giving up 72.2 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 34% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Georgia returns home off back-to-back road losses at Vanderbilt and at Auburn.  The Bulldogs also lost their previous home game to Florida, so off their recent losses, we expect a strong performance here, especially since Georgia is 12-4 on their home court this season.  Georgia only lost by 1 point (72-71) at Mississippi last month after blowing a 9-point halftime lead and a 71-67 lead with 57 seconds left to play.  Georgia’s defense has been outstanding at home all season.  The Bulldogs are only giving up 64.4 points per game on 36.4% shooting from the field and 28.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Georgia is in a terrific bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

9* Play GEORGIA (-).

Memphis just beat the Lakers by 9 points at home on Wednesday night, but their margin of victory was quite unimpressive considering their on-court performance.  The Grizzlies shot 56.5% (48-85) from the field and 48.1% (13-27) from three-point land.  They also had six players score in double figures, and eight players score at least 8 points or more.  Despite all that, Memphis was only able to win the game by 9 points on their home court.  Now they will face the same team on the road, and it’s hard to imagine Memphis duplicating that production.  The Memphis front office cleaned house at the trade deadline; they got rid of Courtney Lee and Jeff Green and acquired nothing but baggage in return with Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hairston, and Chris Andersen.  The Grizzlies are already without Marc Gasol for the rest of the season.  The moves made by management were to accumulate draft picks as they rebuild their old and aging roster over the next couple of seasons.  Memphis’ current roster has no business laying points on the road regardless of the opponent.

Los Angeles has had a horrendous season; the Lakers come into tonight’s game with an 11-48 record.  The Lakers are an extremely young team, and despite the continuous losses, they have not quit on the season.  Los Angeles finally returns home after playing seven of their last eight games on the road.  Their last home game was against an elite San Antonio team, so we can easily dismiss that loss even though the Lakers only came up 6 points short.  The team is simply glad to be back at home: “The atmosphere is finally good. We’ve got the home crowd on our side,” D’Angelo Russell said.  “It plays a bigger factor in winning or losing the game when you’ve got the home crowd. I feel like the fans want to see a show so it’s a good opportunity to put on a show for these guys.”  Memphis is an overvalued team right now, and with Los Angeles in a good bounce back spot, we’ll take the Lakers plus the points in this game on Friday night.

10* Play LAKERS (+).

Golden State’s incredible season has continued since the All-Star break; the Warriors are 3-1 SU with all of those games coming on the road.  Golden State won 118-112 last night in Miami after coming back from a 12-point deficit.  The Warriors out-scored the Heat 38-29 in the fourth quarter to steal that win.  However, last night’s win sets the Warriors up in a flat spot for tonight’s game against Orlando, especially since Golden State has Oklahoma City on deck.  The Warriors had three guys play 33 minutes or more with six guys playing 27 minutes or more last night.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since Golden State will now be playing their fifth game in seven nights with all of those games coming on the road.

Orlando has played extremely well since the All-Star break.  The Magic have gone 2-1 SU in their three games with their lone loss coming by 3 points.  Orlando lost their last home game, and since they are 15-13 SU at home this season, the Magic qualify in a good bounce-back situation and are now setup to play a competitive game tonight.  Orlando acquired Ersan Ilyasova during the All-Star break, and his defense has really bolstered Orlando in recent games.  Brandon Jennings was also acquired at the trade deadline, and he provides instant offense off the bench.  Orlando is a different team now, and they are an undervalued commodity.  Victor Oladipo is questionable tonight, but the Magic have actually been a better defensive team without him on the court this season.  Orlando is catching Golden State at the right time, so we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play MAGIC (+).

College of Charleston comes into tonight’s game with a 16-11 record.  That record is quite surprising considering the lack of talent the Cougars have.  Head coach Earl Grant was forced to install an extremely slow-paced style of play because of his roster, and that has worked for the team.  Grant starts one player, Payton Hulsey, strictly as a defensive stopper; Hulsey rarely shoots the ball on offense.  College of Charleston beat Northeastern 68-61 on their home court earlier this season, but they needed overtime to win that game after rallying from a 12-point halftime deficit.  Charleston is also in a poor scheduling spot for this game after losing their last home game in overtime to conference leader NC-Wilmington.  The Cougars will play with a hangover off that loss, and a lack of focus usually comes on the defensive end in this type of situation.  

Northeastern returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 65-60 loss at Hofstra.  The Huskies have played three of their last four games on the road, and with tonight’s game being the last home game for four starting seniors, we expect a peak performance.  Northeastern’s four seniors have combined for 83 wins, two CAA regular season titles, a CAA tournament title, and an NCAA tournament appearance for the first time in 24 years.  The Huskies are a veteran group that is used to winning, so tonight’s final home game will bring out their best effort.  The Huskies are averaging 74.3 points per game at home, so we expect a strong offensive performance by Northeastern tonight.  We’ll lay the points with the Huskies in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play NORTHEASTERN (-).

Southern Illinois has been a surprise this season; the Salukis come into tonight’s game at Illinois State with a a 21-8 record.  Southern Illinois has posted their first winning season since 2008, and their first 20-plus win season in nine years.  The Salukis will be playing a back-to-back road set here, and it will be just the second time in conference play this season.  The last time they were in this situation, Southern Illinois played poorly in the second road game as they lost by 21 points after shooting just 30.6% (19-62) from the field and 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land.  The Salukis beat Illinois State 81-78 on their home court earlier this season, but they needed to rally from a 6-point halftime deficit to win that game.  Southern Illinois gave up 78 points to the Redbirds on their home court, and they’ll be hard-pressed to slow Illinois State down in tonight’s game, especially since the Salukis have allowed 70.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field over their last five games. 

Illinois State returns home off a 75-66 loss at Northern Iowa on Saturday afternoon.  That game can be easily dismissed as Northern Iowa was playing with revenge after losing 76-67 to Illinois State earlier this season.  The Redbirds are now back at home, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight, especially with this being the last home game for three starting seniors.  Illinois State is 12-3 at home where they are holding opponents to just 62 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field and 31.2% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a peak performance by Illinois State here, so we’ll lay the points with the Redbirds in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play ILLINOIS STATE (-).

Sacramento and Denver just played on Friday night with the Kings winning 116-110 on their home court.  Sacramento shot 49.4% (41-83) from the field, 47.6% (10-21) from three-point land, and 77.4% (24-31) from the free throw line and they only won that game by 6 points at home.  The Kings also had five players score in double figures, including three starters scoring 24 points or more.  Despite all that, the Kings only won the game by two possessions, and that does not bode well for tonight’s rematch in Denver.  The Kings have played just one game since the All-Star break; that came with 8 full days of rest.  Sacramento comes into tonight’s game with another 3 full days of rest, but that is not a good thing, especially since they’ll be playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  Teams with limited conditioning have an extremely difficult time playing in altitude, and we expect that to be a major factor in this game, especially in the second half.

Denver has lost both of their games since the All-Star break.  The Nuggets lost the aforementioned game in Sacramento, and they lost to the Celtics at home on Sunday night.  Despite losing, the Nuggets have a scheduling edge since they are back into their rhythm with two games played since the long layoff.  Denver will be playing just their third home game since February 5th, and since they lost their last home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Prior to their recent home loss, the Nuggets were 3-1 in their previous four home games with their offensive averaging 109 points per game.  Denver’s offense will have little trouble scoring on a terrible Sacramento defense that is allowing 111.5 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Denver is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll back the Nuggets in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play NUGGETS (-).

Vanderbilt comes into tonight’s game at Florida with a 16-11 record, but 12 of those wins have come on their home court.  The Commodores are just 2-8 in true road games this season, and tonight’s game will be an extremely difficult challenge.  Vanderbilt is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Commodores play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Vanderbilt’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Commodores will not get their preferred style of play tonight against Florida.  Vanderbilt is 0-7 on the road this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by 9.1 points per game.  Vanderbilt did beat Florida 60-59 at home earlier this season, but that was on their home court and it was their only win of the season when held to less than 70 points.

Florida returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 73-69 overtime loss at South Carolina.  The Gators also lost their previous home game, so we expect a supreme effort tonight.  Florida is 12-2 at home where they own a terrific +15.1 point differential.  Florida plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Gators play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with a solid defense that is holding opponents to 38.7% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  Florida’s style will frustrate Vanderbilt, so we’ll lay the points with the Gators in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play FLORIDA (-).

Detroit and Cleveland both played yesterday, but the results were much different.  The Pistons lost at home to the Pelicans while the Cavaliers blew out the Thunder in Oklahoma City.  Now the teams will meet tonight in Cleveland, and Detroit gets a good setup to play a competitive game.  The Pistons have lost both of their games since the All-Star break, and they were just 6-11 over their final 17 games of the first half of the season.  Detroit acquired Tobias Harris at the All-Star break, and he will play with the starting five tonight.  In his two games with the Pistons, Harris has scored 37 points off the bench.  With more playing time tonight, we expect Harris to have an impact on this game from the opening tip.  In two games against Cleveland this season, Detroit is 1-1 with their loss coming by just 8 points.  The Pistons have played the Cavaliers close, and tonight’s game will be more of the same.   

Cleveland has won both of their games since the All-Star break; they beat the Bulls in their first game of the second half.  Yesterday’s big win over the Thunder sets the Cavaliers up in a major flat spot for tonight’s game against Detroit.  Cleveland won by 23 points (115-92) in Oklahoma City after shooting 51.2% (41-80) from the field, 43.5% (10-23), and 85.2% (23-27) from the free throw line.  Cleveland played a perfect game, but four guys played 35 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 37 minutes or more.  Cleveland also had two players off their bench play 25 minutes or more.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since the Cavaliers are off a spotlight win.  Detroit is playing Cleveland at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Pistons plus the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play PISTONS (+).

Memphis has gone 15-6 over their last 21 games after going 16-16 over their first 32 games of the season.  Their recent winning ways appear to be quite impressive on the surface, but the current state of the team and organization tell a different tale.  The Memphis front office cleaned house at the trade deadline; they got rid of Courtney Lee and Jeff Green and acquired nothing but baggage in return with Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hairston, and Chris Andersen.  The Grizzlies are already without Marc Gasol for the rest of the season.  The moves made by management were to accumulate draft picks as they rebuild their old and aging roster over the next couple of seasons.  The current team is a group of malcontents that gave themselves the nickname “The Goon Squad” which is a fitting description.  Memphis beat Minnesota at home on Friday night, but they needed to out-score the lowly Timberwolves 33-23 in the fourth quarter to win that game by 5 points.  Now they will hit the road and step way up in class against a Toronto team coming off a bad performance.

Toronto lost 116-106 in Chicago as 7.5-point road favorites on Friday night.  The Raptors played a terrible game on both ends of the court, and off such a bad performance, we expect a peak effort in tonight’s game.  Toronto will play their first home game since January 30th.  The Raptors are 18-6 on their home court where they own a +7.1 point differential on the season.  Toronto’s offense is averaging 103.9 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 39.3% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  The Raptors’ defense has been terrific all season; they allow just 97.7 points per game and only 96.8 points per game at home.  That unit comes into this game off back-to-back games in which they gave up 100 points or more.  That has already happened eight times this season with the Raptors going 7-1 SU in their following game with those seven wins coming by an average of 13.1 points per game.  Toronto is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play RAPTORS (-).

Michigan comes into today’s game at Maryland with a 19-8 record, but 12 of those wins have come on their home court.  Michigan is just 4-4 in true road games with those four losses all coming by 10 points or more with their average loss coming by 15.5 points per game.  The Wolverines have not been a competitive bunch in their away games, and we expect that to be the case once again this afternoon.  Michigan’s defense has been atrocious on the road this season.  The Wolverines are giving up 74.5 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from the field.  Michigan’s defense has been even worse lately as they’ve allowed 75 points per game on 50.5% shooting from the field and 40.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Wolverines will face a Maryland offense that is averaging 77.4 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  

Maryland returns home off a poor 68-63 road loss at Minnesota on Thursday night.  The Terrapins also lost their previous game 70-57 at home to Wisconsin.  Maryland played two of their worst offensive games of the season as they combined to shoot just 38.7% (41-106) from the field, 36.4% (12-33) from three-point land, and 63.4% (26-41) from the free throw line.  Off those two poor performances and back at home where they recently lost, we expect a peak effort in this game.  The Terrapins are 14-1 at home where they own an a terrific +15 point differential on the season.  Maryland’s defense has been good at home while holding opponents to just 62.4 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field and 27.4% shooting from three-point land.  Maryland is in a terrific spot for a big bounce win, so we’ll lay the points with the Terrapins in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play MARYLAND (-).

St. Mary’s comes into tonight’s game at Gonzaga with a 21-4 record, but 16 of those wins have come on their home court.  The Gaels have been dominant at home, but that wasn’t the case when they hosted Gonzaga a month ago.  St. Mary’s only won that game by 3 points, but they actually trailed by 8 points at the half, and they trailed by 3 points with four minutes to play.  The difference in that game came at the free throw line where St. Mary’s was +11 points (14-3) and +11 attempts (16-5).  Gonzaga actually out-shot the Gaels 59.2%-50% from the field and 40%-37.5% from three-point land.  St. Mary’s will now play the rematch on the road where they are just 5-3 this season.  The Gaels’ offense is only averaging 67.2 points per game on 44.1% shooting from the field and 36.5% shooting from three-point land.

Gonzaga will play their second consecutive home game after playing four straight games on the road.  The Zags come in off a 90-68 blowout win over Pacific on Thursday night.  Gonzaga is 11-3 at home where they own an excellent +19.2 point differential on the season.  The Zags’ defense has been terrific at home as they are holding opponents to just 62.9 points per game on 38.8% shooting from the field and 23.6% shooting from three-point land.  Gonzaga’s offense has been incredible at home where they are averaging 82.1 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field and 41.5% shooting from three-point land.  Gonzaga is in a fantastic revenge spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Zags in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play GONZAGA (-).

Nevada has been a surprise this season; the Wolfpack come into tonight’s game at UNLV with a a 16-9 record.  But they’ve played much better basketball at home.  Nevada is just 5-7 in true road games where they’ve allowed 76.4 points per game.  The Wolfpack will be playing a back-to-back road set here, and it will be the second time this season in which they come in off a previous road win.  The last time they were in this situation, Nevada played poorly in the second road game.  They lost by 9 points at Colorado State after shooting just 38.7% (24-62) from the field and 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land.  The Wolfpack beat UNLV 65-63 on their home court earlier this season, but that’s unimpressive considering the Rebels have won just one game all season when held to less than 70 points.  UNLV led that game by 9 points with 10 minutes left to play, so they were in control of that game on Nevada’s home court.

UNLV returns home off a 79-74 loss at Air Force on Tuesday night.  That game can be easily dismissed as Air Force was hell bent on revenge after getting embarrassed 100-64 by UNLV earlier in the season.  UNLV is now back at home, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  The Rebels are averaging 78.2 points per game at home this season, and they will get their preferred fast pace against a poor Nevada defense.  UNLV’s defense is only allowing 68.7 points per game on 41.7% shooting from the field and 32.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a peak performance by UNLV here, so we’ll lay the points with the Rebels in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play UNLV (-).