Washington beat Indiana 102-96 in Game 1 on Monday night, but we do not expect that to happen again in Game 2 tonight.  The Wizards simply shot the lights out from beyond the arc in that game, but it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to repeat that performance.  Washington shot an incredible 62.5% (10-16) from three-point land, and they also got to the free throw line 31 times in that game.  That game was an aberration, and we expect Indiana’s superiority to rein supreme in this game.  During the regular season, Washington’s offense was stymied by Indiana’s defense.  In three games, the Wizards only averaged 76.7 points per game while scoring 73 points or less in two of the three meetings.  Washington was the worst offensive team to play against the Pacers this season, and Indiana’s defense played their best versus the Wizards’ offense.  Indiana is a terrible match-up for Washington despite the results in Game 1.

Indiana lost for just the ninth time at home all season, and off that loss, we expect the Pacers to bounce back strong tonight.  Indiana has not lost back-to-back home games all season, and they are a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS based on tonight’s posted pointspread when playing at home off a previous home loss this season.  The Pacers are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in this situation in the playoffs, winning those games by 12 and 16 points.  Indiana was limited in Game 1 because of foul trouble, but we certainly expect the Pacers to get a favorable whistle tonight.  Indiana’s defense will play much better tonight as they allow just 88.8 points per game on 43.1% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We’ll lay the points with Indiana in Game 2 on Wednesday night. 

9* Play PACERS (-).

Brooklyn needed seven games to beat Toronto in the first round of the playoffs.  The Nets just played on Sunday afternoon in Toronto, and now they must travel to Miami and play on just one day of rest.  This is not the best of spots for Brooklyn, but on the flip side, Miami has not played in seven days, so they may need some time to get into a rhythm.  Brooklyn and Miami played four times this season, and the Nets won all four games.  Three of their wins came by just a single point, and their other win came in overtime.  Those four games were played at an extremely slow pace, and in fact, they averaged only 88.1 possessions per game.  We expect Game 1 to be played at a similar pace, especially considering the circumstances mentioned above. 

The Nets scored 104 points in their Game 7 win, but the Nets only shot 45.7% (37-81) from the field and 34.8% (8-23) from three-point land.  That game went Over the total not because of the pace (only 154 total shots), but because of free throws (63 attempts), and easy baskets (96 points in the paint).  Brooklyn and Miami play a similar style of basketball, so points will be much tougher to come by.  Over the course of the regular season, Brooklyn played their slowest-paced games against Miami while the Heat played their second slowest-paced games versus the Nets.  Miami’s defense was strong in their series against Charlotte as they held the Bobcats to just 92 points per game.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Nets and Heat on Tuesday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Washington took care of Chicago much easier than expected.  The Wizards won that series in five games, and their only loss came by just 3 points.  Washington simply proved to be too fast for Chicago, and their offense was able to get easy baskets by using their speed edge.  Things will be much different for Washington in this series versus Indiana, and the Wizards’ offense will have to work hard for every basket.  During the regular season, Washington’s offense was stymied by Indiana’s defense.  In three games, the Wizards only averaged 76.7 points per game while scoring 73 points or less in two of the three meetings.  Washington was the worst offensive team to play against the Pacers this season, and Indiana’s defense played their best versus the Wizards’ offense.  Indiana is simply a terrible match-up for Washington.

Indiana was taken to the brink by Atlanta in the first round.  The Pacers survived in seven games, but Indiana struggled versus the Hawks all season so it came as no surprise.  Atlanta just owns some nice match-up edges over the Pacers.  This series is just the opposite with Indiana owning all the match-up edges by a significant margin.  The Pacers have to play tonight in a quick turnaround spot while Washington is well rested after last playing six days ago.  But basketball is a game of rhythm, and extended time off isn’t always a good thing.  The Pacers lost at home in Game 1 in their series versus the Hawks, so we can be assured that Indiana will bring their best effort tonight in order to avoid a repeat of that.  Indiana has been inconsistent over the second half of the season, but we expect a strong performance tonight, especially since they dominated Washington during the regular season.  We’ll lay the points with Indiana in Game 1 on Monday night.

10* Play PACERS (-).

Dallas and San Antonio have played to a pattern in this series, and we expect that to continue in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon.  The Mavericks and Spurs opened the series with a very low-scoring game in which San Antonio won 90-85.  The next two games were high-scoring with point totals of 205 and 217.  Both teams shot extremely well in those two games, but the shooting cooled off in Game 4 when the teams combined to score just 182 points.  Dallas and San Antonio then played back-to-back high-scoring affairs in Games 5 and 6 with point totals of 212 and 224.  The Mavericks and Spurs shot the lights out in the last two games as they combined to shoot 48.7% (165-339) from the field and 44.9% (35-78) from three-point land.  The teams cooled way off in Game 4 after back-to-back hot shooting games, and we expect that to repeat today, especially since this is Game 7.

The Mavericks’ offense is at their best when they are able to play fast and get easy baskets in transition.  Dallas has been able to do that in four of the six games so far, and the Mavericks won three of those games with the other loss only coming by six points.  San Antonio is best served in slowing the pace down versus Dallas, and in the two games they did so, they held the Mavericks to just 85 and 89 points.  The Spurs won both of those games, and in a win or go home situation, we expect San Antonio to slow this game way down.  NBA Game 7’s have a strong historical trend of being lower scoring since the team’s seasons are on the line.  We expect that to be the case in this game, so we’ll play Dallas and San Antonio Under the total on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Memphis was embarrassed by Oklahoma City in Game 6 on their home court as they lost by 20 points (104-84).  The Grizzlies also lost their cool, and that got Zach Randolph suspended for this game.  However, Memphis is a resilient and deep team, and we expect them to bounce back strong tonight, even without one of their best players.  Memphis is 2-1 in Oklahoma City in this series; their lone loss came in Game 1 when they were simply in a terrible spot.  The Grizzlies are a perfect 2-0 SU when playing off a loss in this series, and playing well off a loss is something Memphis has done all season.  In fact, when playing off a SU loss, Memphis is 25-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 30-4 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 10-1 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS when playing off a SU loss based on tonight’s pointspread.

Oklahoma City has not played well at all in this series, especially their offense.  They’ve shot just 41.1% (211-513) from the field in the six games, and things are not likely to change tonight.  Memphis holds a big edge over the Thunder inside the paint, and because of that, Oklahoma City has not been able to get easy baskets.  Overall, Memphis has out-scored Oklahoma City 294-228 inside the paint, and they’ve made 220 field goals to the Thunder’s 211 made field goals.  Oklahoma City simply cannot stop Memphis inside.  The Grizzlies will shoot the ball much better from the perimeter tonight (21.4% in Game 6) and make their free throws (67.9% in Game 6); they shoot 73.7% from the line on the season.  We’ll take the points with Memphis as we expect this game to come right down to the wire.

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Houston and Portland played the first four games in this series Over the total.  That wasn’t the case in Game 5 when Houston won 108-98 in a lower scoring game.  However, the pace of that game was fast, just as the rest of the games between the Rockets and Blazers have been.  The teams combined to take 174 shots in Game 5 despite the lower score.  Houston and Portland were bad from three-point land as they shot just 34.0% (17-50) from beyond the arc.  There were also minimal free throw attempts in the game with the teams combining for just 41 total attempts.  Prior to Game 5, both teams had scored 101 points or more in all eight meetings this season.  The winning team has scored 108 points or more in every meeting this season, and there’s nothing we’ve seen to indicate that trend will not continue.

Portland played fast all season as they averaged 97.5 possessions per game which ranked them #10 in the NBA.  Houston played at a faster pace this season as they averaged 98.8 possessions per game which ranked them #5 in the NBA.  These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and that’s not going to change.  Over their last five games, the Blazers’ offense has been terrific in averaging 114.2 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Rockets have averaged 114.8 points per game.  Both defenses have been poor over their last five games with Portland allowing 114.8 points per game and Houston allowing 114.2 points per game.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect another high-scoring game between the Rockets and Blazers on Friday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Game 5 was tailor made for Los Angeles.  The Clippers returned home off a 21-point blowout loss (118-97) the game before, and they were playing in front of their home fans after the incident with their owner.  Los Angeles fed off their emotion, and the officials were also influenced in their calls.  The Clippers won 113-103 after shooting 48.7% (37-76) from the field and 40.0% (8-20) from three-point land.  Los Angeles held a huge advantage from the free throw line as they were handed a whopping 41 attempts while Golden State only took 19 free throws.  The Clippers hit 75.6% (31-41) from the line, and that was simply the difference in the game.  Tonight’s game will return to normal with the game on the Warriors’ home court; the Clippers will not get all of the favorable calls.  Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to match the emotion from Game 5, and they won’t be able to repeat their outstanding performance on the court.

Golden State played well in the last game, but they were at a disadvantage as noted above.  The Warriors’ offense is still in tremendous form as they are averaging 104.8 points per game over their last five games while shooting 46.9% from the field.  In eight games versus the Clippers this season, Golden State is averaging 107.1 points per game.  After the All-Star break, Golden State went 8-6 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 5th best defense.  Their poor performance in Game 5 can be forgotten because the Warriors are a much better defensive team than they showed in that game.  Golden State is 3-1 versus the Clippers at home this season with their lone loss coming by just 2 points.  We’ll take the points with the hungry and motivated home underdog in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (+).

Brooklyn and Toronto have played a highly competitive series, and that was certainly expected.  There’s not much that separates the Nets and Raptors, so we expect tonight’s game to be close throughout, especially with this being a crucial Game 5.  Brooklyn blew a golden opportunity in Game 4 to go up 3-1 in the series after storming back from a 17-point deficit.  The game was tied going into the fourth quarter, but Brooklyn was terrible over the final 12 minutes of play as they scored just 12 points.  Overall, Brooklyn’s offense was poor as they shot just 41.2% (28-68) from the field and an ugly 20.0% (4-20) from three-point land.  The Nets also blew their opportunities from the free throw line as they missed 10 attempts (19-29) in the game.  Brooklyn’s best player in this series has been Joe Johnson, but he was terrible in Game 4 as he scored just 7 points in 41 minutes of action.  His offense will bounce back strong as will the entire Brooklyn team.

Toronto showed a lot of grit after their loss in Game 3.  In that game, the Raptors stormed back from a 15-point deficit midway thru the fourth quarter and tied the game with less than a minute to play.  They ended up losing, and we expected a bit of a hangover for Game 4.  That did not happen, and the fact that it didn’t now sets Toronto up for a poor showing tonight.  The Raptors were also fortunate they won Game 4 as they scored 20 points or less over the final three quarters; they scored 35 points to jump out to a 13-point lead in the first quarter.  Brooklyn basically led wire-to-wire in Game 1 on Toronto’s home court, and they led going into the fourth quarter of Game 2.  The Nets know they can win and play well in Toronto, and off a loss, we expect a big effort tonight.  The teams have alternated wins in every game, and we expect that trend to continue in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play NETS (+).

Memphis was in a terrible spot for Game 1, and that showed in their play when they got blown out by 14 points (100-86).  The Grizzlies bounced back strong in Game 2 when they won outright (111-105) in overtime as 7-point underdogs.  Memphis also played up to their potential in Games 3 and 4 as both went to overtime with the Grizzlies winning by 3 points and losing by 3 points.  The last three games have all been close, and we expect more of the same in Game 5 tonight.  Memphis has been tremendous when playing off a SU loss this season.  The Grizzlies are 24-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 26-5-2 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS when playing off a SU loss.

Oklahoma City has not played well at all in this series, especially their offense.  They’ve shot just 39.9% (138-346) from the field in the four games, and things are not likely to change tonight.  Memphis holds a big edge over the Thunder inside the paint, and because of that, Oklahoma City has not been able to get easy baskets.  Overall, Memphis has out-scored Oklahoma City 208-154 inside the paint, and they’ve made 152 field goals to the Thunder’s 138 made field goals.  Oklahoma City simply cannot stop Memphis inside.  The Grizzlies will shoot the ball much better from the perimeter tonight (30.0% in Game 4) and make their free throws (56.5% in Game 4); they shoot 73.8% from the line this season.  We’ll take the points with Memphis as we expect this game to come right down to the wire.

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Atlanta has been a surprise in this series, and they couldn’t have asked for anything more than being tied at two games apiece heading into Game 5.  The Hawks were the only team to make the playoffs with a losing record, and while some of their poor record can be attributed to injuries, the Hawks still have a lot of issues.  Atlanta’s offense is not a consistent unit, and after they scored 101 points in Game 1, they’ve only averaged 90.3 points per game over the last three games.  Atlanta’s defense is also extremely poor on the road as they allow opponents to score 103.6 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  In their 101-85 loss at Indiana in Game 2, the Hawks allowed the Pacers to shoot 52.9% (36-68) from the field and 47.1% (8-17) from three-point land.  In this critical Game 5 tonight, we expect a strong offensive performance from the Pacers, and Atlanta’s poor defense will be a contributing factor.

Indiana was the best team in the NBA in the first half of the season, but the Pacers dropped way down in the second half.  The reasons are unknown, but we fully expect Indiana to play like the early season team tonight, especially since the winner will take control of this series.  The Pacers played a solid second half in Game 4 as they out-scored Atlanta 49-40 after trailing by 6 points at the half.  Indiana should carry over that momentum into this game, and they’ll jump on the Hawks from the opening tip.  The Pacers play exceptional defense at home; they give up just 88.3 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  Indiana is the superior team, and we expect them to bring their ‘A’ game tonight and win this game by double digits.   

10* Play PACERS (-).

Los Angeles and Golden State have played seven times this season, and the Clippers have won four of those games.  All seven games were played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.2 possessions per game.  The winning team scored 105 points or more in six of the seven games, and both teams scored 96 points or more in six of the seven games.  Golden State played fast all season as they averaged 98.5 possessions per game which ranked them #6 in the NBA.  Los Angeles also played at a fast pace this season as they averaged 98.4 possessions per game which ranked them #7 in the NBA.  These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and we expect that to be the case this afternoon.

The Warriors’ offense was bad in Game 3 as they only scored 96 points after shooting 41.6% (37-89) from the field and an ugly 19.4% (6-31) from three-point land.  Golden State was also terrible from the free throw line as they hit just 66.7% (16-24).  The Warriors’ offense is much better than that performance, so we expect them to bounce back with a tremendous effort this afternoon.  Over their last five games, Golden State has averaged 109.8 points per game.  Los Angeles’ offense was also poor in Game 3 as they only scored 98 points after shooting a woeful 28.6% (8-28) from three-point land and an awful 43.5% (10-23) from the free throw line.  Despite that poor effort, the Clippers have averaged 112.4 points per game over their last five games.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect a high-scoring game between the Clippers and Warriors on Sunday afternoon.
 
10* Play OVER the total.

Miami holds a 2-0 series lead as the scene shifts to Charlotte.  The Heat won the first two games because of hot shooting, and a lot of help from the refs.  Miami shot 49.0% (70-143) from the field and 43.5% (20-46) from three-point land.  The Heat also took 55 free throws in the first two games which gave them a free 40 points from the line.  Both games went Over the total despite being played at slow paces.  During the regular season, Miami and Charlotte played extremely slow as their games only averaged 90.1 possessions per game.  They played the slowest games of the eight playoff series, and since the first two games went Over the total due to above average shooting, we expect things to revert back to normal tonight, especially considering the situation for the Bobcats.

Charlotte played Miami tough despite losing, and since they return home in a must-win game, we expect the Bobcats to do what they do best, and that is defend.  The Bobcats played much better at home this season, especially on defense.  Charlotte gives up just 94.3 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 36.0% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  Miami and Charlotte played Under the total in regulation time in both games played on this court earlier this season.  Miami’s offense has not been good on the road recently as they’ve scored 93 points or less in three of their last four road games while only averaging 92 points per game.  Charlotte knows their best way to win is to play slow, half-court basketball while relying on their defense.  We expect a slow pace, and that will result in a low-scoring game between the Heat and Bobcats on Saturday night. 
 
10* Play UNDER the total.

Chicago is down 0-2 in this series, but they could very well be up 2-0.  The Bulls took a lead into the fourth quarter of both games, but they played terrible over the final 12 minutes of each game and handed Washington a pair of wins.  In Games 1 and 2, Chicago out-scored Washington 150-142 over the first three quarters.  In the fourth quarter and overtime, the Wizards out-scored the Bulls 61-42.  Chicago’s defense gave up 102 points in Game 1 and 101 points in Game 2 and allowing over 100 points in something the Bulls don’t do too often.  In fact, Chicago has allowed more than 100 points just 18 times in 84 games this season.  Off back-to-back poor defensive efforts, we expect the Bulls to play exceptional defense tonight.  In three regular season meetings, Chicago held Washington to just 92 points per game, including a 78-point output on the Wizards’ home floor earlier this month.  

Washington is fortunate to be in the position they are, and the fact that they are up 2-0 in this series is definitely a shock.  The Wizards may be a tad overconfident now, and the pointspread is certainly too high considering the circumstances.  When Chicago played at Washington earlier this month, the Bulls were only 2.5-point road underdogs.  There’s no reason the Wizards should be laying more points in this spot, especially in a playoff game.  Washington has been a better road team this season as they own 24 wins away from home and only 22 wins on their home court.  The Wizards shot way above expectation in the first two games; they hit 48.0% (74-154) from the field and 38.2% (13-34) from three-point land.  Chicago’s defense only gives up 43.2% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land.  It’s highly unlikely the Wizards can repeat their performances from Game 1 and 2 tonight, especially against a focused Bulls’ defense.  We’ll take the points with a motivated and hungry Chicago team tonight as they get themselves back in this series in a game they should win outright.

10* Play BULLS (+).

Golden State and Los Angeles are tied at one game apiece as the series changes locations.  The Warriors won Game 1 109-105, but they were crushed in Game 2 by 40 points (138-98).  That was an embarrassing loss for Golden State, and with tonight’s game being played on their home court, we expect a strong bounce back effort.  Prior to their win on Monday night, Los Angeles was just 3-4 SU over their previous seven games.  The Clippers couldn’t have played any better than they did as they shot 56.6% (47-83) from the field and 48.0% (12-25) from three-point land.  They were also phenomenal from the free throw line as they hit 91.4% (32-35) of their attempts.  Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to repeat that outstanding performance, especially since their level of play versus playoff teams since the All-Star break was not any good.  Los Angeles went just 6-4 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 13th worse defense during that span.  The Clippers held Golden State to 6.2 points below their season average, and that’s not going to happen in back-to-back games.

The Warriors were playing some of their best basketball of the season prior to their Game 2 loss.  The Warriors were 11-5 over their previous sixteen games and 21-10 over their previous thirty-one games.  Golden State’s offense is still in tremendous form despite their poor effort on Monday night.  The Warriors are averaging 114 points per game over their last five games while shooting 47.5% from the field and 38.5% from three-point land.  In six games versus the Clippers this season, Golden State is averaging 106 points per game.  After the All-Star break, Golden State went 8-6 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 5th best defense.  Their poor performance in Game 2 can be forgotten because the Warriors are a much better defensive team than they showed in that game.  Golden State went 2-0 versus the Clippers at home this season, and since they come into this game off an ugly 40-point defeat, we’ll take the points with the motivated home underdog on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (+).

Portland and Houston played to a 122-120 final in overtime in Game 1 on Sunday night.  The game went Over the total thanks to overtime as the teams were tied at 106 at the end of regulation.  However, the pace of that game was extremely fast, and the teams combined to take 202 shots from the field.  The reason the game wasn’t higher scoring in regulation was due to the poor shooting and missed free throws.  Portland only shot 43.3% (42-97) from the field and 33.3% (9-27) from three-point land.  Houston only shot 41.0% (43-105) from the field and 22.9% (8-35) from three-point land.  The Blazers and Rockets also combined to miss 24 free throws after getting to the line a total of 79 times.  All four regular season games were also played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.2 possessions per game.  The winning team scored 111 points or more in every game, and both teams scored 101 points or more in all four games.  Those trends continued in Game 1 of this playoff series, and there’s no reason they won’t repeat once again tonight. 

Portland played fast all season as they averaged 97.5 possessions per game which ranked them #10 in the NBA.  Houston played at a faster pace this season as they averaged 98.8 possessions per game which ranked them #5 in the NBA.  These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and that’s not going to change.  Over their last five games, the Blazers’ offense has been terrific in averaging 112.4 points per game on 46.0% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Rockets have averaged 109 points per game.  Both defenses have been poor over their last five games with Portland allowing 107.8 points per game and Houston allowing 108.2 points per game.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect another high-scoring game between the Blazers and Rockets on Wednesday night.
 
10* Play OVER the total.

Washington won Game 1 on Sunday night 102-93 after out-scoring Chicago 30-18 in the fourth quarter.  The Wizards shot the ball well in that game as they hit 48.6% (36-74) from the field.  Washington was also quite aggressive as they got to the free throw line 35 times which was nine more attempts than Chicago.  All five starters scored 13 points or more.  Chicago only shot 42.0% (34-81) from the field and an ugly 25.0% (5-20) from three-point land.  Despite that, Washington still trailed by 3 points heading into the fourth quarter.  The Wizards simply won the final 12 minutes, but they’ll be hard-pressed to stay competitive in Game 2 tonight.  Washington is a team that needs to play fast while scoring a lot of points to be at their best.  The Wizards have been held to less than 100 points 17 times on the road this season; they went just 6-11 SU in those games.  The Wizards will not get their preferred fast pace tonight in Chicago, especially since the Bulls are off a poor defensive game.

Chicago was playing good basketball at home prior to their loss on Sunday night.  The Bulls were 14-4 SU over their previous 18 home games, and coming off a disappointing loss, we expect the Bulls to play with max effort tonight.  Chicago’s defense was poor, and it was just the 17th time this season they’ve given up more than 100 points.  The Bulls tend to bounce back strong off a poor defensive effort, especially at home.  Chicago is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS at home after allowing 100 points or more with their seven wins coming by an average of 15.4 points per game.  Chicago has won 14 straight home games by 7 points or more, so there’s still a lot of value with the Bulls on their home court, even with tonight’s posted line being higher than Game 1.  We’ll back the motivated home team in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play BULLS (-).

Memphis was in a terrible spot for Game 1, and that showed in their play.  The Grizzlies were playing hard down the stretch just to make the playoffs, and their final regular season game against Dallas went to overtime before the Grizzlies won and got the #7 seed.  Memphis was playing on tired legs on Saturday night; they got out-scored 56-34 in the first half before losing 100-86.  Off that blowout loss, we expect the Grizzlies to bounce back strong tonight.  Memphis has been tremendous when playing off a SU loss this season.  The Grizzlies are 23-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 25-5-2 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS when playing off a SU loss.  The Grizzlies’ defense was poor in Game 1, but they only gave up 94.6 points per game on 45.0% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land on the season.  Memphis’ defense will play much better tonight.

Oklahoma City won by 14 points, but their overall play wasn’t that impressive.  The Thunder capitalized on making free throws as they hit 87.5% (28-32) from the line.  Other than that, the Thunder did not do anything else well.  Memphis out-scored Oklahoma City 50-34 inside the paint, and they made 33 field goals to the Thunder’s 34 made field goals.  Memphis was awful from the free throw line as they only hit 58.1% (18-31) from the line.  The Grizzlies were also terrible from three-point land as they shot an ugly 18.2% (2-11) from beyond the arc.  Oklahoma City can’t stop Memphis inside, and the Grizzlies will shoot the ball much better from the perimeter and make their free throws; they shot 73.8% from the line this season.  We’ll take the points with Memphis as we expect this game to come right down to the wire.

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Portland and Houston played four times this season, and all four games went Over the total.  All four games were played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.2 possessions per game.  The winning team scored 111 points or more in every game, and both teams scored 101 points or more in all four games.  Portland played fast all season as they averaged 97.5 possessions per game which ranked them #10 in the NBA.  Houston played at a faster pace this season as they averaged 98.8 possessions per game which ranked them #5 in the NBA.  These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and we do not expect that to change just because it’s the playoffs.

Portland’s offense has been strong all season as they average 106.7 points per game on 45.0% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Blazers’ offense has been even better in averaging 108 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field.  Houston also possesses a potent offense that scores 107.7 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Rockets are averaging 108.2 points per game despite playing without James Harden in their last game.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect a high-scoring game between the Blazers and Rockets on Sunday night.
 
10* Play OVER the total.

Portland comes into the playoffs playing some terrific basketball.  The Trail Blazers are 9-1 SU over their last ten games; they were just 4-9 SU over their previous 13 games.  The difference came when LeMarcus Aldridge returned to the court from injury.  His presence gives Portland an interior force on both ends of the court which makes the Blazers an extremely difficult team to beat, especially by margin.  Portland’s offense has been outstanding over their last five games as they’ve averaged 108 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land.  In four games versus Houston this season, the Blazers scored 101 points or more in every game while averaging 109.5 points per game.  Portland’s offense will have success once again tonight, especially since the Rockets have one of the worst defenses in the playoffs.

Houston is not in good form right now.  The Rockets are just 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS over their last eleven games.  Three of those losses came versus playoff teams, and four of their five wins came by 7 points or less.  Since the All-Star break, Houston only went 6-8 SU in 14 games versus playoff teams.  The Rockets had a negative efficiency margin in those games.  Houston has the 14th worst defense since the All-Star break, so their losing record was due to poor play.  Portland also had a losing record versus playoff teams after the All-Star break; the Blazers went just 7-8.  However, Portland had a positive efficiency margin while having the 4th best offense and the 6th best defense.  Clearly, the Rockets deserved a losing record while the Blazers deserved a winning record.  These two teams are much closer than the pointspread indicates, and there’s simply a lot of value with the underdog.  We’ll take the points with Portland on Sunday night as we expect this game to come right down to the wire.

9* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+).

Golden State and Los Angeles played four times this season, and the teams split the series two games apiece.  All four games were played at a fast pace as they averaged 100.5 possessions per game.  The winning team scored 105 points or more in every game, and both teams scored 98 points or more in three of the four games.  Golden State played fast all season as they averaged 98.5 possessions per game which ranked them #6 in the NBA.  Los Angeles also played at a fast pace this season as they averaged 98.4 possessions per game which ranked them #7 in the NBA.  These two teams have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and we do not expect that to change just because it’s the playoffs.

The Warriors will be without Andrew Bogut due to a fractured rib, and his absence makes Golden State smaller and without a strong defensive presence inside the paint.  Golden State’s offense has been strong all season as they average 104.3 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 38.0% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Warriors’ offense has been incredible in averaging 114.8 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.  Los Angeles also possesses a potent offense that scores 107.9 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Clippers are averaging 111.8 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect a high-scoring game between the Warriors and Clippers on Saturday afternoon.
 
10* Play OVER the total.

Golden State is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  The Warriors are 10-5 SU over their last fifteen games and 20-10 over their last thirty games.  Four of Golden State’s last five losses have come by single digits which means they had a legitimate shot at winning.  Golden State’s offense is in tremendous form right now as they are averaging 114.8 points per game over their last five games.  The Warriors are shooting 48.1% from the field and 40.7% from three-point land.  In four games versus the Clippers this season, Golden State averaged 107.3 points per game while going 2-2 SU in those games.

Los Angeles is just 3-3 SU over their last six games.  The Clippers were 17-2 SU over their previous nineteen games.  All three of their recent wins came against non-playoff teams while their three losses came to Portland, Oklahoma City, and Dallas who all made the playoffs.  Going back to the All-Star break, Los Angeles is just 6-4 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 13th worse defense during that span.  To compare, Golden State went 8-6 SU versus playoff teams after the All-Star break while possessing the 5th best defense.  That’s a significant difference that greatly favors the Warriors, especially since they are getting a significant amount of points in this game.  These two teams are much closer than perceived, and the pointspread has been over-inflated since Golden State is now without Andrew Bogut.  The Warriors still hold the defensive edge and we’ll take the points with the Warriors in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play WARRIORS (+).

Brooklyn has shown a big difference in their home and road splits since the start of 2014.  At home, the Nets have been virtually unbeatable, racking up an incredible 22-4 record.  On the road, the Nets have been mediocre at best while going just 12-13.  When the Nets lose on the road, they tend to lose big as nine of their thirteen losses have come by 7 points or more.  Six of the losses were complete blowouts in which they lost by 16 points or more.  Brooklyn’s average road loss in 2014 has come by a whopping 14.3 points per game.  The Nets have lost their last two road games, and their defense allowed a total of 229 points on 54.3% (89-164) shooting from the field and 43.2% (19-44) shooting from three-point land.  Brooklyn also fouls too much, and those two opponents took 47 free throw attempts.

Toronto has played terrific basketball since the All-Star break, especially when facing winning teams that also made the playoffs.  The Raptors only went 6-6 SU in 12 games, but they had a positive efficiency margin in those game.  Toronto has the sixth best offense and the third best defense since the All-Star break, so they should have had a better record than 6-6.  To compare, Brooklyn went 8-5 versus playoff teams, but they had a negative efficiency margin while having the 13th best offense and the 7th best defense.  Clearly, the Nets deserved a losing record while the Raptors deserved a winning record.  Toronto has been strong at home all season; they are 26-15 on their home floor.  The Raptors crushed Brooklyn 96-80 on this court back in January, and while we do not expect that big of a win, we do expect a Toronto win and cover in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play RAPTORS (-).

Dallas and Memphis come into tonight’s game with identical 49-32 SU records on the season, and because of that, they are battling for playoff positioning.  The winner of tonight’s game will get the #7 seed and face either the Thunder or the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs, while the loser will get the #8 seed and have to face the Spurs.  With the way San Antonio has been playing since the All-Star break, teams are looking to avoid them.  That means the Mavericks and Grizzlies will bring their best efforts tonight, and this game will be played like a playoff game.  Both teams are also intent on reaching the 50-win plateau and that only gives this game more intensity.  Dallas knows what to expect from Memphis tonight, and they are preparing to play the Grizzlies’ style of basketball.  “It will be that kind of game, slow down and grind it,” said Vince Carter.  “That’s how it’s going to be. We’ll have to stick our nose in there and fight back.”

Memphis has one of the best defenses in the NBA, and the Grizzlies also play at an extremely slow pace.  Memphis allows just 94.4 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Grizzlies are also in good defensive form as they’ve held their last three opponents to just 91, 90, and 95 points.  Two of those games were on the road, including a game in Phoenix against the high-scoring Suns’ offense.  Memphis is catching a Dallas offense that isn’t in the best of form right now.  Overall, the Mavericks average 104.8 points per game, but they’ve failed to reach their average in their last four games.  Dallas is not known for their defense, but the Mavericks have been strong recently in holding their last five opponents to just 95.2 points per game on 43.9% shooting from the field and 33.1% shooting from three-point land.  This game will have a playoff atmosphere and plenty of defensive intensity, and that means we’ll see a low-scoring game between the Mavericks and Grizzlies on Wednesday night.

<b>10* Play UNDER the total.</b>