Michigan St has been an extremely fortunate team throughout the NCAA tournament. The Spartans struggled in their opening round win over a terrible New Mexico St team and survived with a 3-point win (70-67). Michigan St

This game doesn

Portland played a much better game last night than expected. The Blazers went all out in order to beat the Knicks which was quite surprising knowing they had a game on deck tonight in Denver. By winning last night, Portland clinched a playoff spot which apparently was their focus after the type of game they played. It appears they just wanted to get in, and their seeding in the playoffs was secondary because tonight

Orlando has been quietly waiting for tonight

North Carolina once again escaped with a fortunate win in this NIT tournament. The Tar Heels trailed by 5 points with just over a minute left to play against Rhode Island on Tuesday night but thanks to 4 straight missed free throws by Rhode Island, the Tar Heels were able to force the game into overtime. And they won by a single point (68-67) to advance to tonight

New York has had their issues this season, but they are actually a pretty talented team. When playing good, the Knicks can beat any team in the league. New York has wins over Phoenix, Atlanta (3x), Dallas, and Denver. They

San Antonio has played Under the total by a combined 44 points in their last two games, and there

Virginia Commonwealth won the first game in this series on Monday night by 12 points (68-56). But that 12-point winning margin looks more impressive than it actually was. A 3-point game mid-way through the second-half turned into a 13-point VCU lead after they went on a 10-0 run in just over a minute and a half of basketball. VCU

North Carolina enters tonight with a false sense that they are a good team. The Tar Heels were terrible over the course of the entire season; they went just 16-16 after winning the national championship last year. But the team, and more importantly, bettors think this team has somehow turned the corner because of their last three ballgames. Despite winning their last three to make it here to MSG, all three of those games were coin flips in which North Carolina was fortunate to escape with wins.

In their NIT opener against William & Mary, the Tar Heels were trailing with three minutes left to play before they went on an 11-0 run to end the game. Next up was their miraculous win at Mississippi St in which they needed to go coast-to-coast in under 8 seconds to win by a single bucket. And most recently, Carolina needed a big second-half to survive a defensive struggle against UAB and won 60-55. North Carolina was substantial underdogs in their last two games, and the fact they needed to go on the road and win those games sets them up for failure here, especially since the pointspread has been incorrectly adjusted.

The Tar Heels were not a good road team all year either; they are still only 5-11 when playing away from home which means they were a dismal 3-11 before winning their last two games. On the other hand, Rhode Island has been a terrific road team this season; the Rams come into tonight with an 11-7 record away from home. The Rams also played much better basketball over the course of the season. Seven of their nine losses came to teams that played in the post-season including three losses to Temple alone which is forgivable because of Temple

Dayton was quite impressive in winning their last two games on the road to reach the NIT Final Four at MSG. The Flyers won two tough road games at Cincinnati and at Illinois; the Flyers were 3-point underdogs in both games. But off two high-profile wins against major conference opponents, Dayton is feeling like they

San Antonio cashed an easy Under for us last night in Boston; the game stayed Under by a whopping 25 points. And playing on back-to-back nights, we feel there

Saint Louis is a difficult to team to play because of the system they run under head coach Rick Majerus. The Billikens run complex offensive sets that just frustrate opponents into half-court games. And Saint Louis is most effective when they are playing a team that loves to run up and down the court at a frenetic pace. Majerus is too smart of a coach to allow his team to get caught-up in a running game tonight, and he

After playing some out-of-character high-scoring games, the Spurs have gone back to their preferred style of basketball. San Antonio played a stretch of three consecutive games in which there was an average of 230 points scored per game. High-scoring games like that are few and far between for the Spurs, and their last three game results fall right in line with their normal point totals. Over their last three games, San Antonio has played to an average of just 189 points per game, and if their most recent game against Cleveland had not ended with 21 points scored over the last 44 seconds of the game, their game average would be much lower.

Boston has really cranked-up their defensive intensity over the last two weeks. The Celtics have held six of their last seven opponents to less than 99 points, and over their last five games that number is even better. The Celtics are allowing only 95 points per game on 45.6% shooting over that time, and since the Spurs have no problem playing a half-court game, Boston

Baylor has had a terrific season; the Bears come into this game at 28-7 with five of their seven losses coming against teams that played and went deep in this tournament. The Bears are a tough match-up for a lot of teams because of their big presence in the middle, and when that faces an opponent

Baylor has had a terrific season; the Bears come into this game at 28-7 with five of their seven losses coming against teams that played and went deep in this tournament. And a major reason for it is because of their defense. The Bears are a tough match-up for a lot of teams because of their big presence in the middle, and most of their opponents become jump-shooting teams because of their inability to get inside on Baylor. And most of that has to do with how good Baylor

Tennessee is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now, but the Vols are flying under the radar still. After going through a late-season swoon in which they were still adjusting for losing a couple of starters for the season, Tennessee righted the ship at the perfect time when they closed the regular season on a 5-1 run. They carried that momentum over into this tournament, and the Vols have been one of the most impressive teams over the first three rounds.

The Vols made one heck of a turnaround from a season ago. Tennessee was, and still is, known as an offensive team that loves to play full-court basketball. However, that moniker is no longer true and it really hasn

Dallas has hit a bit of a rough patch after their 13-game winning streak was snapped two weeks ago by the Knicks. Since that loss, the Mavericks have lost three of their last five games. But after an extended winning streak gets broken, it

West Virginia doesn

Butler has quietly won their first three tournament games. Usually when this team is winning, they are getting most of the recognition because they are actually the program that started the

If there was one team seeded high and not given a chance to do anything by the talking heads, it was Purdue. The Boilermakers were said to be overseeded on the 4 line, but the only reason the majority of the media made that assessment was overly simplistic and really had no support to back it up. Because of Robbie Hummel

Northern Iowa was terribly underseeded in the nine spot, but that fact alone may actually allow the Panthers to advance further in the tournament. Their win over Kansas on Saturday wasn

The Lakers are 2-0 since Andrew Bynum went out of the lineup. Los Angeles hasn

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Cornell is very good, and also an experienced team. They return all five starters from last year

This is the second meeting of the season between these two. And we remember the first meeting well because we had a strong play on Kansas St in that game. That game was played way back in early December at Kansas St and they won easily, 71-56. We liked the Wildcats in that spot because it was a game in which they had circled over the summer after Xavier beat them in the previous meeting. The Kansas St players felt the Musketeers went overboard with their celebration and some words were exchanged after the game. K-St was in a terrific spot and came focused and their 15-point win came as no surprise to us.

Now fast forward to tonight, and we

Butler has quietly won their first two tournament games. Usually when this team is winning, they are getting most of the recognition because they are actually the program that started the

This game is quite intriguing considering it

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Texas Tech is certainly a surprise playing this far in the NIT tournament. The Red Raiders were just a mediocre team throughout the season, and they really were overmatched in the Big 12 as they went just 5-13 in conference play. And the reason for that was their poor defensive play; Texas Tech would rather out-score opponents than play solid defense. However, that has changed recently as the Red Raiders won their first two NIT games because of their improved defensive play. They held both opponents to just 69 and 64 points while holding them to a combined 37% (53-143) shooting from the field and 20.5% (9-44) from three-point land.

And their improved defense should carry over tonight because Tech has a solid match-up edge over Mississippi. The Rebels love to shoot the three, but Texas Tech has been terrific on perimeter defense in their last two games, and actually all season long. The Red Raiders hold opponents to just 32.7% from beyond the arc, and since the majority of Ole Miss

Dayton was on the NCAA bubble, but after a heartbreaking loss to Xavier in the A-10 tournament where a bad foul with 30 seconds left turned the game around, the Flyers were left out and selected for the NIT instead. And off such a disappointing defeat, there was some concern that Dayton may have given up on the season. But that wasn

San Antonio has never been a good team when playing on back-to-back nights. The Spurs are a veteran team that is up there in age, so playing without rest isn

Princeton has had a terrific season; the Tigers come into tonight at 21-8. Princeton was overshadowed in the Ivy League this year by Cornell, and we

San Antonio enters off a wild, high-scoring game versus Golden State on Friday night. The Spurs won that game 147-116, but despite their high shooting percentage, the box score says they shouldn

California was the Pac-10 preseason favorite. But the Bears had a ton of injuries early on and they really struggled because they weren

Cornell is the best three-point shooting team in the country as they hit 43.7% from beyond the arc. Wisconsin

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Milwaukee is in a terrible scheduling spot for this game tonight. The Bucks played in a double overtime game in Sacramento last night and now must play in the thin air and altitude of Denver on a back-to-back set. That situation is always tough, but the way Milwaukee came back to win last night makes it even tougher.

The Bucks were down by 8 points with around 2 minutes left to play in that game. They nailed a three at the buzzer to force overtime, and then they needed a second extra session to escape Sacramento with a 114-108 win. The Bucks also hit a whopping 14 three

BYU was one of the most consistent teams in college basketball all season long. The Cougars didn

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Northern Iowa was terribly underseeded in the nine spot, and the fact they have to play Kansas in the second round was a raw deal for them. The Panthers were the class of the Missouri Valley Conference; they come into today

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This is another game that is all about perception and reality. The perception is that Louisville is a good team just because they are in the Big East. However, that is simply not the case at all. Louisville

Milwaukee was on a torrid pointspread run; they covered ten straight from February 19th through March 6th. But over their last four ballgames, Milwaukee is just 1-2-1 ATS. And considering four of their last five games have all come right down to the wire, the Bucks

Georgia Tech is extremely talented and they should not be an underdog in this game, especially on a neutral floor. Their defense has been outstanding in holding opponents to just 66 points per game on an impressive 38.2% shooting from the field. Tech held their four ACC tournament opponents to just 54, 64, 58, and 65 points which shows they are in very good current form right now. Their defense has played better than Oklahoma St, yet they are an underdog in this game.

Oklahoma St plays in the Big 12, a conference that would rather get up and down the court and out-score their opponents. The ACC plays a similar style, but Georgia Tech is not your typical ACC team. Tech is more of a half-court team that pounds the ball in the paint and plays solid defense on the other end of the court. That combination will be too much for the Cowboys to handle, especially away from the confines of their strong home court.

Despite their 22-10 overall record, Oklahoma St is not really that good of a team. To their credit they do have some solid home wins over some of the better teams in the Big 12, but on the road, in games that were competitively priced games, Oklahoma St showed their true colors. The Cowboys have 10 losses, and 9 of them have come on the road. They were underdog in every one of those nine losses, and they went a dismal 1-8 ATS in those games.

Georgia Tech has two future NBA players on their roster, Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal, and they both play in the paint. Oklahoma St is one of the smallest teams in this tournament, so the Yellow Jackets should absolutely dominate this game inside. Even though Tech

Utah St is a tough match-up for any team; the Aggies run a ton of half-court sets that are almost impossible to prepare for. And unlike in year

Siena was the story of last year

Cornell is very good, and also an experienced team. They return all five starters from last year

Montana has the exact profile we look for when backing a lower-tier conference team in the NCAA tournament. The Grizzlies play at a very slow pace which allows them to hang around in games where they are the less talented team. Montana has held 27 of their 31 opponents this year to less than 70 points, and that fact alone makes them a dangerous underdog in this pointspread range. The Grizzlies also knock their free-throws down; they hit 72.2% from the line. And the other quality they have is a star player who can take over a game offensively. Anthony Johnson is a pure scorer, and he alone got Montana this tournament bid as he poured in 42 of their 66 points scored in the Big Sky conference title game.

That

Washington

Miami suffered a 76-88 loss as a 2-point home favorite versus San Antonio on Tuesday night, but the Heat should bounce back with a solid performance this evening. Miami qualifies in a strong 54-25 ATS revenge situation which plays on teams off a double-digit loss as a favorite.

Miami lost the most recent meeting versus Orlando on February 28th, 80-96, but the Heat actually won the two early meetings this season in November and December both outright as an underdog, including an easy 104-86 home win as a 4-point underdog.

Miami is 6-2 SU in their past eight games overall which includes impressive home wins versus both the Lakers and Hawks. Orlando has played five of their past six games at home, so the Magic might be a bit flat tonight having to now travel and play without rest after their easy 110-84 home win versus San Antonio last night.

Play HEAT (+).

UTEP is a very good team out of Conference-USA. The Miners won 23 games a season ago and went to the finals of the CBI tournament, and they returned four starters from that team this year including outstanding scorer Randy Culpepper. They also added two high-impact transfers in Derrick Caracter (Louisville) and Christian Polk (Arizona St). This year

This is a classic case of perception vs. reality. The perception is that Notre Dame is the better team because of their recent hot run to closeout the regular season. The Irish won six of their last seven games which means they were just 17-10 going into their February 24th game against Pittsburgh. At that point, Notre Dame was playing without their best player in Luke Harangody, and many wrote off the Irish

Milwaukee has been playing some terrific basketball since the All-Star break. And it

The Lakers played in a wild, high-scoring game last night in Golden St. Los Angeles won 124-121, but the pace and the way the game played out will leave the Lakers a bit short tonight on this back-to-back set in Sacramento. LA jumped out to a 39-32 lead after the first quarter, but their lead was wiped away after the Warriors won the second quarter by 13 points (33-20). So the Lakers were down by 6 points at the half despite having a whopping 59 points on the board.

That

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Denver

New Orleans is playing terrible basketball right now. The Hornets have lost eight of their last ten games, and they haven

Boston comes into today

Most believe that Georgia Tech is in the NCAA tournament regardless of what happens in this game, but there

New York has had their issues this season, but they are actually a pretty talented team. When playing good, the Knicks can beat any team in the league. New York has wins over Phoenix, Atlanta (3x), and Portland this year so it

San Diego St and UNLV have been in a lot of NCAA tournament discussions this week. Both teams have been on the in and out list, but one of them will earn an automatic bid after tonight. So they

Both teams played well on Friday, but Temple is likely to advance today as they are the better team and matchup well in this game. Temple holds a huge defensive edge as they currently allow just 38% FG and 57 points per game, while Rhode Island permits 47% FG and 71 points per game.

This defensive edge was important in both regular season meetings as Temple went 2-0 SU/ATS against the Rams, winning by a combined +26 points and outshooting Rhode Island 56% to 34% from the field. Temple prefers a slow-down, half-court style and this tempo causes problems for Rhode Island as the Rams are a team that wants to play as fast as possible. The Rams simply cannot play in a half-court game. When held to less than 70 points, Rhode Island is just 3-6 SU and ATS this season with the three wins coming by just 1, 4, and 5 points. This includes their 0-2 SU/ATS mark against Temple and overall Temple held 31 of their 32 opponents to 70 points or less this season.

My power ratings favor Temple by 5 points today, so there is solid line value. The Owls are also in much better current form as Temple is a perfect 8-0 SU in their past eight games, winning by an average margin of +13.1 points per game, while Rhode Island is just 4-5 SU in their past nine games, winning by just +4.1 points per game.

Play TEMPLE (-).

The Cardinal fit a negative 38% ATS letdown situation which plays against teams coming off a straight-up dog win. Stanford has performed well in half-court games this season, including last night

Portland prefers to play a slow-down, half-court style of basketball, however last night they were caught in a fast, uptempo game against Golden State. The Blazers struggled in the first three quarters and trailed 83-96 entering the fourth quarter. Portland then buckled down on defense and outscored the Warriors 27-9 to in that final period and won the game 110-105.

Portland learned their lesson and should carry that defensive focus into tonight

Houston has had a very disappointing season; the Cougars are just 17-15 on the year. Much was expected from this team as head coach Tom Penders was often quoted saying this was his best team since he

Saint Louis is a difficult to team to play because of the system they run under head coach Rick Majerus. The Billikens run complex offensive sets that just frustrate opponents into half-court games. And Saint Louis is most effective when they are playing a team that loves to run up and down the court at a frenetic pace. Majerus is too smart of a coach to allow his team to get caught-up in a running game tonight, and he

Atlanta is in a very good scheduling spot to get a convincing win tonight. The Hawks come into this game off back-to-back road losses at Miami and at New York in their latest. Atlanta

Oklahoma St enters off an easy 81-67 win over in-state rival Oklahoma last night. But do not be fooled by the Cowboys

Marquette played an easy game yesterday afternoon. The Golden Eagles

Cincinnati

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Boston has really amped-up their defensive intensity recently. The Celtics have held their last three opponents to 86 points or less; those three teams shot a combined 43.1% (95-220) from the field and an eye-popping 13.8% (5-36) from three-point land. That

Providence is on a ten-game losing streak. But look who they have played; Syracuse twice, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, and Pittsburgh. That

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San Antonio suffered a big blow the other night when Tony Parker broke his right hand in a scrum for a loose ball. Parker had just got back into the lineup after getting over some other injuries and the Spurs offense was starting to click with Parker at the point. But all of that rhythm is gone now, and the Spurs must now re-work George Hill back into the starting lineup at the point. Hill was good when Parker was out before, but it

Portland was a solid winner for us last night. The Pilots were in a great spot as they had rest and were fortunate to be playing a bad San Diego team that had just played the night before. Portland

William & Mary was flat in the first half last night, but they finished strong and outscored James Madison 40-21 down the stretch. The Tribe still failed to cover last night as a 5½-point favorite in their 70-65 win but W&M has been a much stronger play this season as an underdog. In fact, the underdog is now an incredible 18-6 ATS in all William & Mary games this season.

The Tribe is a dangerous underdog as they are a veteran and experienced team that won outright at both Maryland (+13) and Wake Forest (+17) this season. They also won outright as a 2½-point underdog versus Northeastern on February 13th and W&M dominated the game more than the 53-52 final score indicated. William & Mary led by 12 points at halftime and held a 16-point lead with 8:20 remaining in the game.

This is a favorable matchup for William & Mary as they rely heavily on the three-point shot and Northeastern has shown a weakness with their perimeter defense this season. Northeastern relies more on their interior scoring, but William & Mary has a solid 2-point defense and actually outshot the Huskies 67% to 42% from two-point range in the earlier meeting this year.

Northeastern will also be battling the fatigue factor today as they played a double-overtime game last night against Hofstra and escaped with a 74-71 win as a 5½ -point favorite. Northeastern has an extremely thin bench with their five starters playing the majority of the minutes every game, so fatigue will be an issue today. In fact, Northeastern

This is the second meeting of the season between these two; the Lakers won the first game 98-92 after a huge fourth quarter. That game had just 190 points scored, but 58 of those points came in the final quarter. Low-scoring games has been the norm between the Lakers and Magic so we expect today

Portland is a very good team that has proven that already this season. The Pilots played an extremely difficult schedule with most of those games coming on the road; neutral court games against UCLA, Minnesota, and West Virginia and true road games at Washington and Nevada. They beat UCLA and Minnesota on back-to-back nights in a preseason tournament, so the Pilots know what it takes to win in a setting like they are playing in tonight; a conference tournament being played on a neutral court.

Their early non-conference road losses also toughened this team up for their conference schedule, and that

San Antonio has never been a good team when playing on back-to-back nights. The Spurs are a veteran team that is up there in age, so playing without rest isn

Saint Louis is a difficult to team to play because of the system they run under head coach Rick Majerus. The Billikens run complex offensive sets that just frustrate opponents into half-court games. And Saint Louis is most effective when they are playing a team that loves to run up and down the court at a frenetic pace. Majerus is too smart of a coach to allow his team to get caught-up in a running game tonight, and he

Tulsa was in a funk for the month of February; the Golden Hurricane lost five of their eight games during the month. However, all five of those losses came against very good teams in UTEP (twice), Marshall, and Duke. There was also a home loss to Memphis mixed in as well. There

Oklahoma City comes in off one of their worst games of the season; the Thunder lost by 29 points (119-90) at Denver on Wednesday night. We expected that loss though as we used Denver in that game because they were rested and OKC was playing on a back-to-back set. The Thunder played at home the night before and it was played at an extremely fast pace with three of OKC

Pepperdine has had a miserable season; the Waves are a pathetic 7-23 overall and 3-11 in conference play. On the road, the Waves are 2-12 with the only two road wins coming on neutral courts against a pair of non-board teams (Hampton and Monmouth-NJ). This team is just waiting mercifully for the season to end, and with tonight

The winner of tonight

Utah has alternated wins and losses over their last five games. The Jazz lost their latest, a 108-104 defeat at the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday night. Off that upset loss, Utah has had a full two days to prepare for tonight

Washington

Evansville had the worst record in the Missouri Valley this season. The Purple Aces come into tonight at just 9-20 overall and 3-15 in conference play. However, they have a valid excuse as to why they have such a terrible record. Evansville

Oklahoma City is in a terrible scheduling spot tonight. The Thunder played at home last night and beat Sacramento 113-107. That game was played at an extremely fast pace, and with three of OKC

Tulsa was in a funk for the month of February; the Golden Hurricane lost five of their eight games during the month. However, all five of those losses came against very good teams in UTEP (twice), Memphis, Marshall, and Duke. There

Saint Louis is a difficult to team to play because of the system they run under head coach Rick Majerus. The Billikens run complex offensive sets that just frustrate opponents into half-court games. And Saint Louis is most effective when they are playing a team that loves to run up and down the court at a frenetic pace. Majerus is too smart of a coach to allow his team to get caught-up in a running game tonight, and he

Illinois

Baylor has played some good basketball overall this season; the Bears are currently 22-6 and ranked # 22 in the country. However, they are just 9-5 in conference play and only three of those wins have come on the road with the wins coming by 7, 2, and 3 points in overtime. So this is a team that has won all close games on the road; they

Vanderbilt has had a fantastic season; the Commodores are an impressive 22-6 overall and 11-3 in conference play. They are still in the hunt for the outright SEC title and for a first-round bye for the conference tournament. But they find themselves in a terrible spot tonight at Florida; a game the Gators need a lot more than Vanderbilt.

Florida is squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble at 20-9. The Gators need to notch a signature win to punch their ticket to the Big Dance and a win here almost certainly earns them an invitation. The Gators have been fantastic on their home floor this year going 13-3 with the two losses coming to Kentucky and Xavier. Florida

San Antonio once again hits the road tonight; this will be the Spurs

Portland has played some good ball on their current road trip; the Blazers have won and covered three of the four games with the lone loss coming in overtime. However, Portland was catching teams at the perfect time as all three of the teams they beat were either missing key players because of injury or suspension. Tonight, things will be much tougher for the Blazers because they are playing their fifth game in seven nights in the final game of a long road trip. Portland is already satisfied with the results of this trip, win or lose here, so there will be some lack of focus for tonight

These two teams just played last week; the Clippers won 99-89. But that final score is sort of misleading as the first half saw a lot of points scored. The Clippers lead 60-45 at the half, but the pace slowed way down in the third and fourth quarters. After the break, the teams combined for just 83 points as both teams just went ice cold from the field. But the Kings were working in a new lineup after making a trade, and the Clippers were unable to maintain their hot, first-half shooting. But tonight, we expect another fast pace and solid shooting for the whole ballgame.

Sacramento

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Richmond is playing some terrific basketball right now, especially on the defensive end of the court. The Spiders have held their opponents to just 60 points per game on an incredible 38.7% shooting. And their defensive prowess will be a key in this game this afternoon as Richmond will look to force their style of play on Xavier.

Spiders