Detroit has not played as expected this season.  The Pistons were slated to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA with Stan Van Gundy running the show, but that has yet to come to fruition.  However, it’s addition by subtraction for Detroit after they got rid of Josh Smith, who by many accounts, was taking the Pistons down single handily.  Since Smith’s departure, Detroit has played their best two games of the season with a 10-point win (119-109) over the Pacers at home and a 23-point win (103-80) over the Cavaliers on the road.  “I think it’s everybody being so unselfish,” said Brandon Jennings.  “Everybody’s making the extra pass, not just one guy out there making plays. When guys get in the post, they’re passing it back out. Guys are getting open shots. We’re being very unselfish.”  That quote speaks directly to the fact that Smith was a ball hog who prevented the Pistons from being a unified team on the court.

Orlando has more wins (13) than Detroit (7), but the Magic are not the more talented team.  The Magic have a weak roster by NBA standards, and they need perfect setups to win and be competitive.  Tonight’s home game against Detroit is anything but a perfect setup for Orlando, and in fact, it’s a terrible spot.  The Magic are playing on back-to-back nights after winning in Miami last night; they scored the last five points to win 102-101.  Orlando will be playing their fourth game in five nights after winning back-to-back road games as underdogs.  Orlando has a negative point differential over their last five games despite going 3-2 in those games.  Detroit has a positive point differential over their last five games despite going 2-3 in those games.  There’s a lot of value on Detroit in this game, so we’ll back them on Tuesday night.   

9* Play PISTONS (-).

Utah has won four of their last five games, and they have gone 7-2 ATS over their last nine games overall.  However, Utah has played an extremely weak schedule during that span with games against Miami (2x), Orlando, Charlotte, and Philadelphia.  When the Jazz played good to decent teams like New Orleans, San Antonio, and Washington, they lost.  Despite winning two of their last three games, Utah’s offense averaged just 90.3 points in those games.  They will be without Alec Burks tonight, and they won’t be competitive if their offense scores less than 100 points in this game.  Utah concluded a 6-game road trip on December 22nd, and then they had five days off and played at home last night which was an 88-71 win over a terrible Philadelphia team.  Now the Jazz have to take to the road and face a Los Angeles team off an ugly home loss to the Raptors yesterday afternoon.        

Los Angeles lost to Toronto 110-98 on Sunday, but the Raptors have a potent offense that can trade points with the Clippers, especially when Chris Paul has an off game like he did.  Paul scored just 10 points after shooting 25% (3-12) from the field.  Tonight’s matchup versus Utah presents Los Angeles with an excellent opportunity to bounce back with a big win, especially since Paul holds a huge matchup edge over Utah’s guards.  The Clippers lost for just the fourth time at home this season, and they’ve been strong when playing at home off a previous home loss.  Los Angeles is a perfect 3-0 while winning by an average of 15 points per game.  The Clippers already own two wins over the Jazz this season, including a 16-point road win last month.  We expect a big effort from Los Angeles, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night.    

9* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Orlando has more wins (11) than Charlotte (10), but the Hornets are a significantly better team.  The Magic have a weak roster by NBA standards, and they need perfect setups to win and be competitive.  Tonight’s game in Charlotte is anything but a perfect setup for Orlando, and in fact, it’s a terrible spot.  The Magic led Cleveland for three quarters last night and they took a 4-point lead into the fourth quarter.  Orlando was then out-scored 27-14 over the final 12 minutes and lost 98-89.  The Magic shot 49.3% (36-73) from the field and 42.9% (9-21) from three-point land, and they still lost by 9 points even with Cleveland shooting just 41.2% (33-80) from the field and 26.7% (8-30) from three-point land.    

Charlotte also played and lost last night.  The Hornets got blown out in Oklahoma City by 23 points (98-75).  We lost on the Hornets, but we have no hesitation in backing Charlotte once again for all the same reasons.  Charlotte hit a low point with a 10-game losing streak, but since getting healthier, the Hornets have been playing their best basketball of the season.  Charlotte had won four straight games before last night’s loss, and they were 6-4 over their previous ten games.  Over their last five games, Charlotte is averaging 101.2 points per game while giving up just 91.6 points per game.  To compare, Orlando is averaging just 92.6 points per game while giving up 99.8 points per game over their last five games.  Charlotte is the better team by a wide margin, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday night.  

9* Play HORNETS (-).

Phoenix and Sacramento played last month with the Kings winning 114-112 in overtime.  That game only had 198 points scored at the end of regulation despite the teams playing at a fast pace.  The Suns and Kings combined to take 189 shots, and they had 47 attempts from three-point land.  The shooting was terrible as Phoenix hit 42.9% (42-98) from the field and 32.3% (10-31) from three-point land.  Sacramento also hit 42.9% (39-91) from the field and 18.8% (3-16) from three-point land.  The teams were aggressive as they got to the free throw line 64 times, but they missed 13 of those attempts.  That game was played under defensive minded Sacramento head coach Mike Malone when the Kings weren’t looking to push the pace.

Sacramento has since fired Malone because management wants the team to play at a fast pace under interim head coach Tyrone Corbin.  In four games since the change, the Kings’ defense has allowed 441 points.  The Suns’ offense is in tremendous current form as they are averaging 109.5 points per game while shooting 48.4% from the field over their last four games.  Sacramento’s offense is also in good current form as they’ve scored 107, 108, and 108 points in their last three games.  Phoenix’s defense has been poor on the road this season as they are giving up 104.8 points per game.  Sacramento has a huge edge inside the paint with DeMarcus Cousins, so the Kings will score a lot of easy baskets in this game.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Suns and Kings on Friday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Charlotte is just 10-19 on the season, but they have a good excuse for that poor record.  The Hornets dealt with a slew of injuries early on this season, and they had to face some of the best teams from the Western Conference during that stretch.  Charlotte hit a low point with a 10-game losing streak, but since getting healthier, the Hornets have been playing their best basketball of the season.  Charlotte has won four straight games, and they are 6-4 over their last ten games.  The Hornets have scored 104 points or more in their last four games, and their defense has held three of their last four opponents to 91 points or less.  

Oklahoma City has been a different team with both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook back on the court.  However, Durant injured his ankle five games ago, and the Thunder’s recent results have not been good.  Without Durant on the court, Oklahoma City is just 2-2 over their last four games with the two wins coming by just 1 and 8 points.  The Thunder played yesterday in San Antonio in a spotlight Christmas Day game and they won 114-106 after shooting 51.9% (42-81) from the field and 60% (9-15) from three-point land.  Five players scored 14 points or more in that game.  Off such a peak performance on a special day, we expect sharp regression from Oklahoma City tonight.  Charlotte is playing excellent basketball right now, so we’ll take the points with the Hornets in this game on Friday night.

9* Play HORNETS (+).

Golden State and Los Angeles both come into this game the same way.  The Warriors and Clippers are both playing terrific offense right now while their defenses have been terrible.  Golden State’s offense is averaging 114.6 points per game over their last five games on 48.7% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  Golden State’s defense is giving up 111.8 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field and 40.4% shooting from three-point land.  The Warriors are playing more small ball right now with Andrew Bogut out, and their defense has slipped 10 points per game, going from 93.6 to 103.6 points per game.  Things are not going to get any better in this game against a potent Clippers’ offense.         

Los Angeles has been all offense and no defense for the majority of the season, and it’s been magnified more recently.  The Clippers’ offense is averaging 107.2 points per game over their last five games.  Over the same span, the Clippers’ defense is giving up 108.6 points per game on 50.5% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.  Head coach Doc Rivers acknowledges his team’s defensive shortcomings: “Defensively, we have some things to fix that are fixable.”  The problem is the Clippers haven’t had time to practice as they will be playing their sixth game in nine nights while being on the road for three of those games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Warriors and Clippers on Thursday night.      

10* Play OVER the total.

Washington comes into this game off back-to-back home losses to the Suns and Bulls, but we’re willing to forgive both of those poor efforts, especially the last game against Chicago.  The Wizards knocked the Bulls out of the playoffs last season, and Chicago was hell bent on avenging that series defeat.  With a healthy team on the court, the Bulls are one of the best teams in the league, so there’s no shame in losing to them.  The back-to-back losses ensure a peak effort from Washington in this game, especially since they are being featured on Christmas Day.  This game is huge for the Wizards as they want to showcase their talents to a national audience.  Washington already won on this court earlier this season when they beat the Knicks 98-83, so they’ll have plenty of confidence as well.  

The Knicks are a complete mess this season.  They come into this game with an awful 5-25 record, and they have a slew of players on the injured list.  New York’s transition to the triangle offense has been a wreck, and their inability to score consistently has put enormous pressure on their poor defense.  The Knicks are in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 104.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 43.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Washington has a terrific offense that is averaging 100.4 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Wizards are simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this early game on Thursday afternoon.         

9* Play WIZARDS (-).

Charlotte is just 9-19 on the season, but they have a good excuse for that poor record.  The Hornets dealt with a slew of injuries early on this season, and they had to face some of the best teams from the Western Conference during that stretch.  Charlotte hit a low point with a 10-game losing streak, but since getting healthier, the Hornets have been playing their best basketball of the season.  Charlotte has won three straight games, and they are 5-4 over their last nine games.  The Hornets have scored 104 points or more in their last four games, and their defense has held their last three opponents to 91 points or less.  

Milwaukee is 14-14 on the season, but the injury bug has hit them hard.  The Bucks lost Jabari Parker for the season last week, and Ersan Ilyasova (nose) and John Henson (foot) are also on the injury report for tonight’s game.  The Bucks are returning home off a 4-game road trip; six of their last seven games have been on the road.  Milwaukee is such a young team, and since they’ve had two days off since returning home, this is not a good spot, especially with the holiday this week.  The Bucks’ play has not been as sharp lately; they are just 4-7 SU over their last eleven games.  Milwaukee went just 1-10 ATS in those games based on tonight’s posted spread as three of their four wins came by 5 points or less.  Charlotte is the better team despite what the records say, and since the Hornets are playing better basketball right now, we’ll take the points in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play HORNETS (+).

Georgia Tech and Dayton both play a similar style of basketball.  The two teams play at a controlled pace while setting up their offense in the half court.  The Yellow Jackets are 8-2 on the season with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points.  Georgia Tech’s defense has been terrific; the Yellow Jackets have held eight of their ten opponents to 69 points or less.  Overall this season, Georgia Tech is holding their opponents to just 60.9 points per game on 41.4% shooting from the field and 27.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Yellow Jackets also have motivation tonight as they are looking to avenge a 10-point home loss to Dayton last season.  Georgia Tech was an 8-point favorite in that game, so there’s value in getting the Yellow Jackets plus a handful of points in this game. 

Dayton is also 8-2 on the season, but things are going to get much tougher for the Flyers going forward.  Dayton is basically a one-man team right now with Jordan Siebert carrying the scoring burden.  The Flyers just kicked their two big men off the team after starter Devon Scott and backup Jalen Robinson were involved in a trespassing case on campus.  That duo combined for 12.3 points per game and 9.8 rebounds per game.  Dayton is now an extremely thin and short team as no player is taller than 6-foot-6.  Georgia Tech has a big post presence, so the Yellow Jackets will have a big edge inside the paint in this game.  In what projects to be a low-scoring defensive struggle, we’ll take Georgia Tech plus the points in this game on Tuesday night.  

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Atlanta is playing tremendous basketball right now.  The Hawks are 14-2 over their last sixteen games.  Atlanta’s offense is in excellent current form as they’ve scored 231 points in their last two games.  The Hawks’ offensive ways will continue tonight against a poor Dallas defense.  The Mavericks have one of the worst perimeter defenses in the NBA, and Atlanta has the personnel to take full advantage of that weakness.  Dallas is allowing 103.5 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Mavericks have given up 102 points or more in 15 of their last 19 games, so the Hawks will easily eclipse the century mark tonight.       

Dallas just made a big trade to acquire Rajon Rondo from the Celtics.  Rondo is one of the best point guards in the league, and since Dallas has a slew of shooters, the Mavericks’ offense will continue to be the best in the NBA.  Dallas ranks #1 in offensive efficiency, but they played poorly in their last game.  Dallas scored 99 points after shooting just 43% (37-86) from the field and 34.6% (9-26) from three-point land.  That was just the fifth time this season (28 games) that Dallas scored less than 100 points.  Overall, Dallas is averaging 113.1 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field at home this season.  Atlanta gives up 100.2 points per game on the road, so the Mavericks will also eclipse the century mark with ease tonight.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Hawks and Mavericks on Monday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Los Angeles and Sacramento just played two weeks ago with the Lakers winning 98-95.  That game only had 193 points scored despite the teams playing at a fast pace.  The Lakers and Kings combined to take 166 shots, and they had 40 attempts from three-point land.  The shooting was terrible as Los Angeles hit 39.6% (38-96) from the field and 20% (5-25) from three-point land.  The teams also combined to miss a whopping 21 free throws after getting 62 attempts from the charity stripe.  That game was played without Sacramento’s best player, DeMarcus Cousins, and also with former defensive minded head coach Mike Malone.  Tonight’s game sets up totally different, and it’s why we expect a high-scoring game.    

Sacramento has since fired Malone, and Cousins returned to the court a couple of games ago.  The Kings’ management wants the team to play at a fast pace under interim head coach Tyrone Corbin; they were playing a defensive style under former coach Malone.  In two games since the change, the Kings’ defense has allowed 212 points.  The Lakers’ offense is averaging 102.2 points per game this season, and playing at their preferred fast pace, we can expect Los Angeles to score north of the century mark.  Sacramento will have a huge edge inside the paint with Cousins on the court as the Lakers’ interior defense is atrocious.  Los Angeles is ranked 28th in the NBA in fast break points allowed (15.2 per game), so Sacramento’s new up-tempo offense will eclipse the century mark as well.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Lakers and Kings on Sunday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Atlanta comes into this game off one of the biggest wins in the NBA this season.  The Hawks crushed the Cavaliers in Cleveland by 29 points (127-98) on Wednesday night, and that game has been the talk for the last couple of days.  That’s not a good thing for Atlanta, and because of it, we expect a big regression tonight in Houston.  The Hawks shot an incredible 64.5% (49-76) from the field and 57.1% (16-28) from three-point land.  They also hit 81.2% (13-16) of their free throws.  Seven players scored 10 points or more, including three players on the second unit.  Atlanta played a perfect game, and it’s highly unlikely the Hawks will repeat a performance like that this season.  It should be noted that the team was without arguably their best player and point guard Jeff Teague; he will miss tonight’s game as well.    

Houston lost 99-90 at home to New Orleans on Thursday night.  However, the Rockets were in a tough spot for that game as they just won in overtime in Denver the night before.  We can easily excuse that loss by Houston, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight, especially since they are playing on their home court once again.  The Rockets’ offense was terrible in that loss as they shot just 38.4% (33-86) from the field and 24% (6-25) from three-point land.  Houston will be more efficient tonight considering they’ll be facing an Atlanta defense that is allowing 100.5 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Houston is the better team in the better spot, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play ROCKETS (-).

This game will be played on a neutral floor, so neither team will have the home court edge.  Northern Iowa and Iowa both come into this game off losses, so we can expect good efforts by both teams.  Northern Iowa is 9-1 on the season, and a big part of that success has been the Panthers getting back to their slow and defensive ways.  Northern Iowa tried to play a different style of basketball over the last couple of seasons, and it simply didn’t work out.  But head coach Ben Jacobson reverted back to the old ways, and the results have been terrific.  Northern Iowa plays at an extremely slow pace while suffocating their opponents with defense in the half court.  The Panthers are allowing just 59 points per game this season.  Northern Iowa has held nine of their ten opponents to 70 points or less in regulation time this season.   

Iowa is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Hawkeyes have struggled mightily with their half court offense this season, so this is not a good match-up for them at all.  Northern Iowa routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions; Iowa has yet to play in such a game this season.  Iowa has scored less than 70 points in three games against power conference teams this season.  The Hawkeyes went just 1-2 SU in those games with the win coming by just 5 points over North Carolina.  That was a strange game considering the Tar Heels also play at a fast pace, so the slow-paced win can be discounted.  We expect Northern Iowa to slow this game to a crawl, so we’ll take the points with the Panthers on Saturday night. 

9* Play NORTHERN IOWA (+).

Los Angeles is 14-4 over their last 18 games.  The Clippers have won ten of those games by double digits while going 11-3 ATS in their fourteen wins.  However, as impressive as that is, it’s also unsustainable, and we’ve seen some regression in their play over the last few games.  The Clippers are just 2-2 SU over their last four games with one of those wins coming by just 2 points over a shorthanded Indiana team.  This is a bad spot for the Clippers as well as they are making a one-game road trip to Denver, and a trip to the Rockies is not easy from Los Angeles.  The Clippers will have to fly right back as they host Milwaukee tomorrow night.  Head coach Doc Rivers hinted at resting his players, especially since the Clippers are playing their sixth game in ten days.  

Denver has lost three straight games, and seven of their last eight games overall.  However, four of those games were on the road, and they were also playing without Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari.  Both of those guys returned on Wednesday night, and Denver played much better even though they lost 115-111 in overtime to Houston.  The Nuggets are playing their third straight home game, and since they’ve lost the last two, we expect a strong effort tonight.  The home team has dominated this series, winning seven consecutive meetings and eight of the last nine overall.  The Nuggets are averaging 106.2 points per game at home this season, and they will score easily on a Los Angeles defense that is allowing 100.3 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Friday night.  

10* Play NUGGETS (+).

Milwaukee has been playing good basketball this season, but unfortunately, the injury bug has hit them hard.  The Bucks lost Jabari Parker for the season on Monday night, and Giannis Antetokounmpo (ankle), Ersan Ilyasova (nose), and John Henson (foot) are all on the injury report for tonight’s game in Sacramento.  The Bucks played last night in Portland, and they held a 2-point lead going into the fourth quarter.  But they ran out of gas, and ended up losing 104-97.  Milwaukee shot 48.1% (37-77) from the field and 36.8% (7-19) from three-point land in that game, but we do not expect a repeat of that effort on back-to-back nights.  The Bucks were crushed on the boards 52-32, and that weakness will be present once again tonight against the Kings.       

Sacramento stunned just about everybody when they fired head coach Mike Malone earlier this week.  The Kings are mired in a 2-9 slump, but those losses were accrued without their best player, DeMarcus Cousins, who was out with viral meningitis.  Cousins is slated to return tonight, and his presence makes the Kings a much better team.  Sacramento management wants the Kings to play at a fast pace under interim head coach Tyrone Corbin, and tonight is a good opportunity to do that.  Milwaukee is extremely vulnerable inside the paint right now because of their injuries, and the Kings have a very good interior offense.  Sacramento is one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, and they’ll hold a huge edge in this game.  We’ll lay the points with Sacramento in this game on Thursday night.   

9* Play KINGS (-).

Houston and Denver just played on Saturday night with the Rockets winning 108-96.  That game had 204 points scored despite horrendous shooting by both teams.  The teams played at an extremely fast pace in that game as they combined to take 184 shots, and they had 62 attempts from three-point land.  The shooting was terrible as Denver hit 37.5% (36-96) from the field and 25% (7-28) from three-point land.  Houston shot just 44.3% (39-88) from the field and 29.4% (10-34) from three-point land.  The teams also combined to miss a whopping 23 free throws after getting 60 attempts from the charity stripe.    

Denver’s offense has scored just 96 and 91 points in their last two games, but the Nuggets will have Danilo Gallinari back on the court tonight.  He provides instant offense for Denver off the bench.  Overall, the Nuggets are averaging 105.8 points per game at home this season, and they will score easily on a Houston defense that is in poor current form.  The Rockets’ defense is allowing 103.4 points per game over their last five games.  Houston’s offense is in good current form as they are averaging 105.6 points per game over their last five games.  The Nuggets’ defense has been poor all season as they are allowing 104.6 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land.  We expect another fast-paced game, but with efficient offense this time, resulting in a high-scoring game between the Rockets and Nuggets on Wednesday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Oklahoma City is in excellent current form.  The Thunder have won six consecutive games, and they are 8-1 SU over their past nine games.  They’ve won seven of those eight games by 9 points or more with their average win coming by 15.1 points per game.  Oklahoma City is a completely different team now than they were earlier in the season when both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were out with injuries.  The Thunder’s seasonal stats are bad, but they are meaningless, especially their offensive numbers.  Over their past five games, Oklahoma City is averaging 107.2 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field.  The Thunder’s offense will generate a lot of easy baskets tonight, especially since the Kings are changing their style of play.

Sacramento stunned just about everybody when they fired head coach Mike Malone yesterday after losing at home versus Detroit on Saturday night.  That loss was the Kings’ eighth defeat over their past ten games, but they’ve been playing without their best player, DeMarcus Cousins, who is out with viral meningitis.  His absence makes the Kings extremely vulnerable, so the recent bad results are not the coach’s fault.  Sacramento management wants the Kings to play at a fast pace under interim head coach Tyrone Corbin; they were playing a defensive style under former coach Malone.  Oklahoma City has too much offensive firepower for the Kings right now, and playing at a fast pace will only create more separation for the Thunder.  These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now, so we’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City on Tuesday night.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Boston and Philadelphia played last month with the Celtics winning 101-90.  The total on that game closed at 213.5 and for some reason the posted total on tonight’s game is a full 7 points lower.  The first meeting was played at a fast-pace as the teams combined to take 169 shots, and they had 41 attempts from three-point land.  Boston plays at the fastest pace in the NBA with an efficient offense and a terrible defense.  Philadelphia plays at the third fastest pace in the NBA with a terrible defense.  Both teams have the perfect combinations for high-scoring games, and we expect more points tonight than there were in the first meeting.

Philadelphia’s offense broke out in their last game as they scored 115 points on a very good Memphis defense.  The Sixers shot 48.8% (40-82) from the field while hitting 11 three’s and getting to the free throw line 34 times.  Philadelphia is playing aggressively on offense, and we expect that to continue tonight.  Boston’s offense is averaging 104.2 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field this season.  The Celtics’ defense is allowing 108.5 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field and 41.7% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  The teams combined to score 100 points inside the paint in the first meeting, and that’s a clear indication that easy baskets were scored in transition.  We expect a fast-paced game with efficient offense, resulting in a high-scoring game between the Celtics and Sixers on Monday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Detroit is just 4-19 on the season, and my preseason projection of the Piston being a much improved team looks wrong.  However, Detroit was missing a key piece of that expected improvement as Jodie Meeks missed the first 22 games of the season with a back injury.  Meeks returned to the court last night in Phoenix, and we saw a significantly better Detroit team on display, especially their offense.  The Pistons scored 105 points after shooting 47.6% (40-84) from the field with six different players scoring 11 points or more.  Detroit played at a much faster pace as well as they took 84 shots in the game.  That allowed them to get a lot of easy baskets; the Pistons scored 60 points inside the paint.  Detroit will have similar success tonight, especially since the Kings will be without their best player.

Sacramento is a team we’ve used several times this season.  However, the Kings are playing without DeMarcus Cousins who is out with viral meningitis.  His absence makes the Kings extremely vulnerable, especially inside the paint.  That’s not a good thing considering the Pistons have one of the best frontcourts in the NBA with Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond.  They combined for 35 points and 22 rebounds last night, and those totals should be even greater tonight with Cousins not on the court.  Sacramento is just 2-7 over their last nine games, including 2-6 without Cousins on the court.  These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now, so we’ll take the points with Detroit on Saturday night.   

9* Play PISTONS (+).

Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country, and they have a legitimate shot at making a very deep run in the NCAA tournament in March.  The Zags come into tonight’s game with an 8-1 record with their lone loss coming by just 3 points (66-63) in overtime to a very good Arizona team.  Gonzaga bounced back strongly off that heartbreaking loss as they crushed Washington State 81-66 in their last game.  That’s a positive sign for Gonzaga, and we expect them to come with another strong effort in this game.  The Zags have an extremely efficient offense that is averaging 81.4 points per game on 51% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  All five of Gonzaga’s starters are averaging 10 points or more per game.  The Zags also have a deep bench that can score points, and their second unit is little match for many college teams.  

UCLA has a good 8-2 record on the season, but the Bruins have played an extremely weak schedule.  Their two games against decent competition both resulted in losses; UCLA lost 75-65 to Oklahoma and they lost 78-56 to North Carolina.  Neither one of those two teams are as good as Gonzaga, so this will definitely be UCLA’s toughest game of the season so far.  The Bruins love to play fast, but that will be a detriment in this game against a much better Gonzaga offense.  UCLA plays little defense as they’ve given up 71 points or more in six of their ten games this season.  The Bruins have trailed at the half in their last two games to inferior opponents and that’s not a good sign coming into this game.  Gonzaga is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday night.   

9* Play GONZAGA (-).

Kansas beat us on Wednesday night when they won 75-70 at Georgetown as 2-point underdogs.  We have no hesitation in playing against the Jayhawks once again, especially since they are now laying a handful of points into a better team than they just faced.  This game will be played on a neutral court and not on Kansas’ strong home court, so that eliminates a major edge.  The Jayhawks beat Georgetown because of their hot 3-point shooting and their ability to get to the free throw line.  Kansas shot 58.8% (10-17) from three-point land, and they also connected on 25 of their 32 free throw attempts.  The Jayhawks struggled mightily in the half court as they shot just 37.7% (20-53) from the field in that game. 

Utah is 7-1 on the season with their lone loss coming by 4 points (53-49) on the road to a very good San Diego State team.  The Utes beat Wichita State earlier this season, snapping their 35-game winning streak.  That win showed how good the Utes are this season.  Utah plays at an extremely slow pace, and that is the style of basketball that frustrates Kansas.  The Utes have held seven of their eight opponents to 68 points or less this season.  Overall, Utah is only allowing 57.4 points per game on 35.8% shooting from the field this season.  Kansas has not been winning by big margins lately as their last three wins have come by 6, 6, and 5 points.  We expect this game to be close throughout, so we’ll take Utah plus the points on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play UTAH (+).

Charlotte is just 6-15 SU on the season, but they have a good excuse for that poor record.  The Hornets dealt with a slew of injuries early on this season, and they had to face some of the best teams from the Western Conference during that stretch.  Charlotte hit a low point with a 10-game losing streak, but they’ve won their last two games since getting healthier.  Charlotte got Gary Neal back for the Knicks game, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist returned in Wednesday night’s 96-87 win over the Celtics.  The Hornets are well-rested as this will be just their fourth game over the past thirteen days.  Charlotte will be focused tonight, especially since they’ll be playing one of the best teams in the NBA.

Memphis is 17-4 SU on the season, and there’s really nothing negative to say about the team.  However, the Grizzlies may overlook Charlotte because of their poor record, and the fact that Memphis has just played a stretch of games against some of the elite teams in the league.  The Grizzlies just faced the Clippers, Blazers, Spurs, and Mavericks recently.  Those games are much more important for Memphis, especially since those are the teams the Grizzlies will be battling for playoff positioning.  Memphis also has a road game on deck tomorrow night.  This game figures to be a low-scoring defensive grinder just like November’s 71-69 win by Memphis.  We’ll take the big points with the undervalued Hornets in this game on Friday night.    

10* Play HORNETS (+).

Boston is struggling this season.  The Celtics are 7-12 on the season, including an ugly 2-5 record on the road.  Boston’s 3-game winning streak was snapped on Monday night when they lost 133-132 to Washington in double overtime.  The game had to take a lot out of the Celtics, especially since they had to rally from a 16-point deficit heading into the fourth quarter.  Boston is playing on tired legs as this will be their third game in four nights, and also their sixth game in nine nights.  The Celtics also have a terrible defense, especially on the road where they are allowing 110.3 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 43.5% shooting from three-point land.      

Charlotte has also struggled this season; the Hornets only have 5 wins.  However, Charlotte has dealt with a slew of injuries while facing some of the best teams from the Western Conference.  Charlotte snapped their recent 10-game losing streak with a win over the Knicks on Friday night.  The Hornets dominated that game as they led by 18 points in the fourth quarter while their offense scored 103 points on 47.7% shooting from the field.  Charlotte got Gary Neal back for that game, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is slated to return tonight.  The Hornets are also well-rested as this will be just their third game over the last eleven days, and they are playing an opponent that they are better than.  Charlotte holds a significant scheduling edge for this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Hornets in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play HORNETS (-).

Los Angeles comes into this game on an 8-game winning streak, and they’ve won 10 of their last 11 games.  The Clippers have won nine of those games by double digits while going 9-1 ATS in their ten wins.  However, as impressive as that is, it’s also unsustainable.  The Clippers will inevitably go on a losing streak against the spread, and their last game may be the start.  Los Angeles beat Phoenix 121-120 in overtime while failing to cover the 7.5-point line.  The Clippers were actually lucky to win that game as they needed a rare Blake Griffin three-pointer to get the job done.  Los Angeles must now travel to the opposite coast and begin a 3-game mini road trip.  This is not a good spot for the Clippers, especially since they are laying a significant amount of points.   

Indiana is not off to a good start this season.  The Pacers are just 7-14 on the season, including a 4-6 record at home.  Indiana was up against it before the season started as they lost two of their best players to injury, and other role players went down when the season began.  Things are getting better for the Pacers as David West has returned to the court.  Indiana is on a 5-game losing streak, but four of those games came on the road.  The Pacers lost to Atlanta in their return home, and off such an ugly loss, we can expect Indiana to bring their best effort tonight.  The Pacers will be playing just their second game over a 5-day span, so they are well-rested.  Indiana will hit the road again on Friday for a game in Toronto, and that makes tonight’s home game extremely important.  We’ll take the points with Indiana in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play PACERS (+).

Kansas and Georgetown played last year with the Jayhawks winning 86-64 on their home court.  Kansas had a favorable whistle in that game as they held a whopping 46-28 free throw attempts edge.  The Jayhawks also shot 54.3% (25-46) from the field in that game.  Kansas was simply the much better team last year, but that’s not the case this season, especially since the Jayhawks are not as good as they were after losing two players in the NBA lottery.  Tonight is the rematch Georgetown has been waiting for, and it comes on the Hoyas’ home court, and we expect a much different outcome.   

Georgetown is 5-2 on the season with their two losses coming to good teams like Wisconsin and Butler.  The Hoyas beat Florida, so they’ve been battled tested against three strong opponents.  The Hoyas play at an extremely slow pace, and that is the style of basketball that frustrates Kansas.  Georgetown has held all seven of their opponents to 68 points or less this season.  Overall, the Hoyas are only allowing 61.9 points per game on 38.4% shooting from the field and 26.8% shooting from three-point land.  This is a much bigger game for Georgetown as a win over Kansas would boost their resume come March.  The Hoyas have won 54 consecutive non-conference games on their home court, and since they are playing with a lot of motivation, we’ll back Georgetown in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play GEORGETOWN (-).

Milwaukee and Oklahoma City played last month with the Bucks winning 85-78.  That was an extremely low-scoring game, but the teams were different then, especially Oklahoma City.  The Thunder did not have Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant for that game.  Both will be on the court tonight, and we expect a higher scoring game.  The teams played at a fast pace in that earlier meeting as they combined to take 168 shots, and they had 35 attempts from three-point land.  The shooting was terrible as Oklahoma City hit 33.3% (29-87) from the field and 30% (6-20) from three-point land.  Milwaukee shot just 40.7% (33-81) from the field and 20% (3-15) from three-point land.  The teams also missed 13 free throws combined.    

Oklahoma City’s offense is much better now that their two best players and scorers are back on the court.  The Thunder are averaging 101 points per game over their last five games, and they will score easily on a Milwaukee defense that is in poor current form.  The Bucks’ defense is allowing 109 points per game on 50.5% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Overall on the road this season, Milwaukee is giving up 102.7 points per game.  The Bucks’ offense is in tremendous form as they’ve scored 102 points or more in seven consecutive games.  We expect a fast-paced game with efficient offense, resulting in a high-scoring game between the Bucks and Thunder on Tuesday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Boston and Washington just played yesterday with the Celtics winning 101-93.  Boston led that game wire-to-wire as they never trailed and led by as many as 25 points.  We do not expect that to happen again, but we do expect another fast-paced game.  The teams combined to take 181 shots, and they had 44 attempts from three-point land.  Boston plays at the fastest pace in the NBA with an efficient offense and a terrible defense.  That’s the perfect combination for high-scoring games; Boston is 12-6 to the Over this season.  The Celtics’ offense is in good current form as they’ve scored 101 points or more in four straight games.     

Washington’s offense was not good yesterday.  The Wizards shot just 36.6% (34-93) from the field while scoring just 28 points inside the paint.  With a return to their home court where they are 9-2 this season, we expect a much better offensive performance by Washington tonight.  The Wizards’ offense is averaging 102.2 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field and 39.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Boston’s defense is allowing 106.5 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field and 43.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  We expect a fast-paced game with efficient offense, resulting in a high-scoring game between the Celtics and Wizards on Monday night.  

9* Play OVER the total.

Creighton comes into this game with a 6-2 record, but the majority of those wins have come against inferior competition.  The Bluejays are a shell of the teams they’ve had in recent years that won 27, 28, and 29 games.  Creighton returns just one starter from last season’s team which featured National Player of the Year Doug McDermott who is now in the NBA.  The four players Creighton lost averaged 51 points per game, and that’s why their offense has struggled mightily this season.  The Bluejays have scored 68 points or less in five of their last six games.  Creighton is shooting just 43.4% from the field, and their offense will have a lot of trouble scoring in this game against a very good Cornhuskers’ defense that is only allowing 63.2 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field.      

Nebraska has improved in each of the last three seasons, and this year they are set to breakout with a legitimate shot at making the NCAA tournament.  The Cornhuskers are 5-1 this season with their lone loss coming in overtime to Rhode Island.  This is a huge game for Nebraska against their in-state rival, and it’s a game the Cornhuskers have had circled since losing by 15 points last season.  “We were all embarrassed last year,” Nebraska coach Tim Miles said.  “We have a lot to prove in this rivalry. Basketball is as good as it’s been in a long time at Nebraska. The rivalry is a big deal to me and a big deal to our program. It’s one of those games that gets marked on your calendar.”  The players are also quite motivated to beat the Bluejays: “A win against Creighton would erase a lot of bad memories,” said David Rivers.  Nebraska is simply the better team this year, and since they have a lot of motivation, we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night.  

9* Play NEBRASKA (-).

Rhode Island is 4-2 on the season with their two losses coming against Kansas and Georgia Tech.  The Rams have played a brutal schedule as their five Division I opponents have a combined record of 25-9.  Rhode Island comes into this game off a loss, and they’ve had five full days to prepare, so they will be ready for a big effort.  “We’ve still got a bad taste in our mouths from that loss,” Jared Terrell said.  “You can see it in practice. Everybody is trying to fuel each other and play harder.”  Rhode Island head coach Dan Hurley also likes what he sees from his team: “I feel pretty good about where we’re at. I think the guys have responded really well.”  

Southern Mississippi won 77-64 in Rhode Island last season, but the Golden Eagles are a shell of that team.  They return just one starter from their 29-win team of last season, and they are also playing a different style of basketball under new head coach Doc Sadler.  Southern Miss is also 4-2 on the season, but their wins have come over William Carey, South Alabama, Troy, and North Dakota State.  The Golden Eagles lost 59-36 at Drexel, a team that just lost to Division II University Sciences Philadelphia on Thursday night.  Rhode Island is simply the better team, and with motivation to avenge last year’s loss, we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday night.        

9* Play RHODE ISLAND (-).

New York is a complete mess right now.  The Knicks come into this game with an ugly 4-16 record as their personnel and style of play changes have simply been out of sync all season.  New York had a spotlight home game last night against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Knicks were playing their third straight home game, and they had a day of rest to get ready for that game.  New York played well as they took a 5-point lead heading into the fourth quarter.  But the Knicks got out-scored 22-14 over the final 12 minutes and lost 90-87.  Now they must wheel right back and take to the road while playing with a hangover from last night’s loss.  This is simply a terrible spot for the Knicks. 

Charlotte is also struggling this season; the Hornets only have 4 wins just like the Knicks.  However, Charlotte’s situation is much different.  The Hornets are a playoff-caliber team, but they’ve dealt with a slew of injuries while facing some of the best teams from the Western Conference.  Their recent losing streak is quite understandable, so we can easily give them a pass.  Charlotte will get Gary Neal back on the court tonight, and his presence instantly gives the offense a major boost.  The Hornets are also well-rested as this will be just their second game over the last six days, and they are finally playing an opponent that they are better than.  Charlotte is also playing with revenge after losing 96-93 in New York back in early November.  The Hornets lost that game because they scored just 13 points in the fourth quarter.  Charlotte is the better team with motivation, and since they are catching the Knicks in a terrible situational spot, we’ll lay the points with the Hornets in this game on Friday night.

10* Play HORNETS (-).

This is a Big Five rivalry game, and these games tend to be much closer than expected.  Villanova is obviously a good team as they come into this game ranked #9 in the country with a perfect 6-0 record.  However, the Wildcats have played five opponents who like to play a similar fast-paced style; Villanova was simply the better team in all of those games.  Villanova faced one team that likes to play at a slower pace, and that game resulted in a 60-55 win over Michigan.  Tonight will also be the first true road game for Villanova this season, and it comes against an opponent that plays a style which gives the Wildcats fits.     

La Salle is 4-2 on the season, including a perfect 3-0 on their home court.  The Explorers play at an extremely slow pace as they’ve held all six of their opponents to 68 points or less, including four opponents to 60 points or less.  La Salle also matches-up extremely well with Villanova because they have a pair of big men that can control inside the paint.  The Explorers also have a new addition in Auburn transfer Jordan Price who is averaging 17.7 points per game.  His presence has given La Salle a true scoring threat that they’ve lacked over the last couple of seasons.  La Salle will dictate the pace in this game, and since Villanova is not good at playing in the half court, we’ll take the big points with the Explorers in this game on Wednesday night.    

9* Play LA SALLE (+).

Los Angeles comes into this game off a big win last night in Detroit.  The Lakers won that game 106-96 as 2-point underdogs; that was their second straight SU win when getting points.  Los Angeles shot 48.1% (39-81) from the field and 58.8% (10-17) from three-point land last night, but that was against a Detroit team that is simply a mess right now.  The Lakers are taking a major step-up in class tonight, especially on the defensive end of the court.  Los Angeles has struggled against strong defensive teams all season; the Lakers have losses by 13, 18, 23, and 21 points to the top four teams in defensive efficiency.  Los Angeles will face the Wizards who are ranked #5 in defensive efficiency this season, so the Lakers will be hard-pressed to match their offensive production, especially since they are playing on back-to-back nights.   

Washington is flying well under the radar so far this season.  The Wizards are 11-5 on the season, including a strong 7-2 at home.  Washington comes into this game with a day of rest, and this will be just their third game over the last seven days.  The Wizards hold a huge scheduling edge over Los Angeles in this game as the Lakers will be playing their fifth game over the last seven days.  Washington has a terrific defense, especially at home where they are only giving up 93.6 points per game on 45.2% shooting from the field.  The Wizards have scored 102 points or more in three of their last five home games, and they will score at will on a Los Angeles defense that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency.  We expect Washington to control this game from start to finish, so we’ll lay the points with the Wizards on Wednesday night.             

10* Play WIZARDS (-).

Portland owns two wins over Denver already this season, one at home and one on the road.  The Trail Blazers won in Denver three weeks ago, but they were 2.5-point underdogs.  Now they are 3-point favorites for some reason, and that creates a lot of value on the Nuggets.  Portland’s win in Denver was the start of a 9-game winning streak for the Blazers; it was also part of a 10-2 ATS run.  Since snapping their winning streak, the Blazers are 0-1-1 ATS with their lone SU win coming against a struggling Minnesota team that owns just four wins on the season.  

Denver is in tremendous current form right now.  The Nuggets have won eight of their last ten games while going 6-3-1 ATS, including a SU win as a home underdog.  Denver was not in good form when they hosted Portland as they were just 1-5 SU overall while riding a 5-game losing streak.  Denver has actually played good basketball against Portland despite the two losses.  The Nuggets have out-scored Portland 104-74 inside the paint.  Denver also got to the free throw line 63 times while Portland had just 43 free throw attempts in the two games.  Denver is playing with legitimate revenge, so we’ll take the points with the Nuggets in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play NUGGETS (+).

Dallas has one of the best offenses in the NBA.  The Mavericks are averaging 109.1 points per game on 48% shooting from the field.  Dallas is ranked #1 overall in offensive efficiency as they’ve scored 100 points or more in 15 of their 18 games this season.  Dallas has four players averaging double digits in points scored, and eight players averaging better than 7 points per game.  The Mavericks come into this game rested as they had last night off and they also gave Dirk Nowitzki the previous game off to rest.  Dallas has scored on Chicago’s defense in previous games; the Mavericks scored 100 and 105 points on the Bulls in two of the last three meetings.        

Chicago has played a different style of basketball this season.  The Bulls are more focused on offense than defense which is opposite of how they played in the past.  Chicago now has offensive options at all five positions, and with Derrick Rose back from injury, the Bulls’ offense is just going to get better.  Chicago is averaging 101.1 points per game this season, and they rank #12 in overall offensive efficiency.  The Bulls will be facing a terrible Dallas defense that is allowing 100.1 points per game this season.  Chicago’s defense is in poor form as they’ve allowed 100 points per game on over their last five games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Mavericks and Bulls on Tuesday night.     

10* Play OVER the total.

Massachusetts beat LSU 92-90 last season, but the Minutemen lost three starters from that team who combined to score 55 of their 92 points in that game.  Massachusetts plays at an extremely fast pace, and that plays right into the hands of LSU.  That was evident in last year’s game with 182 total points scored.  The Minutemen own five wins on the season, but two of those wins have come in state against Boston College and Northeastern while one of their close losses came to Harvard.  Massachusetts will now play on the home court of an opponent out of state for the first time this season, and that makes this a difficult situational and scheduling spot for the Minutemen.    

LSU is in the third year of head coach Johnny Jones’ system, and they finally have the length and athleticism to run their fast-paced attack.  The team won 20 games and advanced to the second round of the NIT tournament last season, and they have a legitimate shot to make the NCAA tournament this season.  LSU also added a huge piece to their coaching staff in Eric Musselman, who is widely regarded as an uptempo coaching guru.  The Tigers’ two losses this season have come against slow-paced teams when LSU was held to less than 70 points.  Massachusetts is not going to hold LSU to less than 70 points, and since the Tigers are simply the better team, we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night.  

9* Play LSU (-).

We lost going against Los Angeles on Saturday night, but we have no hesitation in playing against the Clippers once again tonight.  Los Angeles is once again in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this home game against Minnesota tonight.  The Clippers are playing their first game at home after a 7-game road trip; this is will also be their sixth game in nine nights.  The Clippers had a very successful trip, winning six of their seven games, including four straight blowouts that they won by a combined 60 points.  Los Angeles’ first game back at home is less than an ideal spot, and this is an easy game for them to overlook, especially since they are double digit favorites against a Minnesota team that is just 4-11 on the season.     

Minnesota has struggled since losing a bunch of players to injury.  However, the Timberwolves’ young players are trying to prove themselves, and they’ll bring a good effort tonight against a marquee team like the Clippers.  Despite their poor record, Minnesota will be a double digit underdog for just the fourth time this season.  The Timberwolves’ offense has been able to score on the road this season as they are averaging 101.9 points per game.  A good offensive team is always dangerous in this pointspread range, especially when facing a disinterested opponent.  We’ll take the big points with Minnesota in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Los Angeles is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in Utah tonight.  The Clippers are playing the final game of their 7-game road trip, and this is will also be their fifth game in seven nights.  Los Angeles has to play on a back-to-back set with tonight’s game coming in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  The Clippers have had a very successful trip, winning five of their six games so far, including last night’s 102-85 blowout win in Houston.  The Clippers will return home after this game, and they’ll have a full three days off before their next game, so this is an easy game for them to overlook, especially since it comes against a Utah team that is just 5-11 on the season.     

Utah has had a full two days off to prepare for this game against Los Angeles, so the Jazz hold a huge scheduling edge.  Utah comes in on a 4-game losing streak and that ensures we’ll get a focused effort from the home team tonight.  Utah has played competitively at home this season as three of their five wins have come on their court.  The Jazz have shown a strong ability to bounce back strong off a SU loss this season.  Utah is 7-3 ATS when playing off a loss, including a strong 3-1 SU and ATS record when playing at home off a road loss.  The Jazz have one major weakness, and that is keeping opponents off the offensive glass.  Utah’s blowout losses this season have come against strong offensive rebounding teams.  Los Angeles is the worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA as they rank 30th out of 30 teams.  With the Clippers in a terrible scheduling spot, we’ll take the points with Utah in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play JAZZ (+).

Phoenix and Denver just played on Wednesday night with the Suns winning 120-112 on their home court.  The two teams will play tonight in a quick turnaround rematch in Denver, and we expect a different outcome.  Phoenix is in a tough scheduling spot for this game.  The Suns are coming off a 6-game road trip that began on the West Coast in Los Angeles, travelled thru the East Coast, and ended in Canada.  The Suns went 4-2 on that trip, and then beat Denver in their first game home.  After celebrating Thanksgiving yesterday, the Suns take to the road once again and have to play in the thin air and altitude of Denver before returning home for two more games.  This is one of those games in which it’s easy to envision the Suns bringing less than their best effort, especially since they just beat Denver two days ago.

Denver is playing much better basketball now than they were earlier in the season.  The Nuggets are 6-2 over their last eight games; they went just 1-6 over their previous seven games.  Denver returns home off that 8-point loss in Phoenix, so we expect a strong performance tonight.  The Nuggets out-scored the Suns 25-23 in fast break points, and they also out-scored Phoenix 48-44 inside the paint.  Denver also got to the free throw line 34 times in that game compared to just 21 free throw attempts for Phoenix.  The Suns won that game from beyond the arc as they shot 52% (13-25) from three-point land while one of their bench players, Gerald Green, scored 24 points in 26 minutes of action.  It’s highly unlikely both of those will repeat tonight.  Denver is catching Phoenix in a terrible spot, so we’ll back the Nuggets in this game on Friday night.             

9* Play NUGGETS.

This is the final of the NIT Season Tip-Off tournament, and the game will be played at Madison Square Garden.  The New York venue clearly gives St. John’s a home court advantage in this game.  Gonzaga has steamrolled teams en route to their 5-0 start this season.  The Bulldogs are certainly a good team, but they did lose guard Josh Perkins to a broken jaw in their 88-76 win over Georgia on Wednesday night.  Gonzaga shot 50% (26-52) from the field in that game, and they got to the free throw line a whopping 35 times.  The Bulldogs hit an incredible 91.4% (32-35) from the free throw line, but the refs were whistle happy as the game saw a total of 70 free throw attempts.  That’s unlikely to happen again tonight, especially with Gonzaga playing the home town team.     

St. John’s has a wealth of talent, but they don’t always bring their best effort.  The Johnnies have been inconsistent under head coach Steve Lavin, but this is a huge game for St. John’s.  There’s no doubt the Johnnies have the talent to be a NCAA tournament team, and a win in this game will go a long ways come March.  St. John’s is off a terrific defensive game against Minnesota on Wednesday night.  The Johnnies held Minnesota to just 61 points on 35.9% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Golden Gophers only got to the free throw line 16 times, so Gonzaga cannot rely on getting free points in this game.  Overall, St. John’s is holding opponents to just 57.3 points per game on 31.3% shooting from the field and 29.2% shooting from three-point land.  St. John’s will slow this game down with their strong defense, so we’ll take the points in a game that comes right down to the wire.         

9* Play ST. JOHN’S (+).

Washington and Cleveland just played on Friday night with the Wizards winning 91-78 on their home court.  That game was not even that close as Washington simply dominated from start to finish.  The Wizards shot 48.8% (41-84) from the field, and they got a monster game from John Wall who scored 28 points.  However, things are much different for the rematch tonight in Cleveland.  The Wizards went into that first meeting rested while playing their fourth straight home game.  Washington also had Nene on the court; he scored 10 points in 28 minutes.  Nene’s biggest asset is defense, and he completely took Kevin Love out of the game while holding him to just 8 points.  Nene will not play tonight because of injury, and his absence completely changes the complexion of this game.

Cleveland has struggled this season; there’s no denying that fact.  But this is a big revenge game for the Cavs after getting embarrassed on national TV by the Wizards just five days ago.  “We just got to bring it. They had us on our heels all game last time,” LeBron James said.  Cleveland has been a much better team at home this season despite having just a 3-4 record on their court.  The Cavs are shooting 47.6% from the field at home compared to 42.0% on the road, and they are shooting 41.6% from three-point land at home compared to 30.4% on the road.  Cleveland is off a confidence-building 106-74 win over Orlando on Monday night while Washington is off a heartbreaking 106-102 home loss to Atlanta last night.  Cleveland is in a good spot to get a revenge win, so we’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Wednesday night.    

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Sacramento is a much improved team this season.  The Kings come into tonight’s game in New Orleans with an 8-5 record.  Head coach Mike Mallone is a defensive mastermind, and in his second season, the Kings’ defense is significantly better.  Sacramento ranks 13th in defensive efficiency despite playing elite offensive teams like the Warriors, Blazers, Clippers, Suns and Mavericks.  The Kings just hosted the Pelicans a week ago and lost by 6 points.  However, Sacramento out-scored New Orleans in three of four quarters and held a 10-point margin.  The Kings scored 60 of their 100 points inside the paint, and with the Pelicans missing one of their better interior defenders, Sacramento will hold a big advantage inside once again tonight.

New Orleans is a pretty good team, but the Pelicans are dealing with some key injury losses.  Eric Gordon hurt his shoulder in their last game, and he will be out indefinitely.  Gordon makes the Pelicans’ offense go, and when he missed time last season, we saw a sharp decline in their play.  New Orleans is also missing Omer Asik, and his absence creates a big hole inside the paint.  With the loss of Gordon and Asik, the Pelicans’ rotation is completely turned upside down, and that’s not a good thing considering New Orleans has one of the worst benches in the NBA.  New Orleans’ defense is not in good form as they’ve given up 100 points or more in five of their last seven games.  Over their last five games, the Pelicans are allowing their opponents to shoot 46.8% from the field.  We’ll take the points with Sacramento in this game on Tuesday night. 

10* Play KINGS (+).

Oregon is not in good shape for this game tonight against VCU.  The Ducks just played last night, and this will be their third game in five days.  Teams playing multiple games over a short span and without rest are always at a major disadvantage when facing the pressure and havoc of VCU.  The Ducks are also an extremely thin team after losing six players prior to the start of the season.  Oregon lost another player last night when Dwayne Benjamin injured his ankle.  His absence makes the Ducks a shell of the team they projected to have before the season began.  Even with a full compliment of players, Oregon was picked to finish 8th in the Pac 12 this season.  The Ducks are in a terrible spot tonight, especially since their opponent is off an embarrassing performance. 

VCU got crushed by Villanova last night.  The Rams lost 77-53, and the game wasn’t even that close.  However, Villanova is a very good team built with veterans who simply do not turn the ball over.  Teams like that give VCU fits; Oregon is the complete opposite as the Ducks are young and inexperienced.  VCU has a veteran team that returned 69.3% of their minutes played from last year’s 26-9 team.  The Rams are just one of three teams to win 26 games or more over the last five seasons; Duke and Syracuse are the others.  VCU plays at a furious pace, and their up and down style wears teams out, especially early in the season.  The Rams have exceptional conditioning, and against an inexperienced and thin team like Oregon, VCU’s ability to wreak havoc and create turnovers makes this game a complete mismatch.  The Rams are the better team by a wide margin, so we expect VCU to bounce back strong and win this game easily on Tuesday night. 

9* Play VCU (-).

Los Angeles is off an ugly 107-91 loss in Memphis last night.  The Clippers were terrible on both ends of the court; they scored 21 points or less in three of four quarters while giving up 26 points or more in three of four quarters.  Overall, Los Angeles shot just 41.6% (32-77) from the field and 28% (7-25) from three-point land.  Off the loss and ugly performance, we expect the Clippers to bounce back strong tonight.  Los Angeles has shown a strong ability to play well off a loss this season, and in fact the Clippers are a perfect 4-0 in this situation.  Los Angeles also catches the perfect opponent at the perfect time to get another win on the season.

Charlotte is a team we like going forward, but right now, the Hornets are struggling mightily.  Charlotte has lost five consecutive games and seven of their last eight games overall.  The Hornets have a slew of injuries, including their best defensive player, Michael Kidd-Gilchrest.  Charlotte is also off a heartbreaking 94-93 loss last night in Miami after they blew a 5-point lead going into the fourth quarter.  The Hornets rallied from a 9-point halftime deficit, so that game took a lot out of Charlotte, especially since they are a shorthanded team.  Los Angeles is the much better team, and in a focused spot, we’ll lay the points with the Clippers on Monday night.             

9* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Cleveland lost for us on Wednesday night when San Antonio beat them 92-90.  But we have no hesitation in backing the Cavaliers once again tonight.  The Cavaliers led for the majority of that game, and the Spurs simply made the plays at the end to win.  Cleveland led by as many as 11 points while San Antonio’s biggest lead of the game was only 6 points.  The Cavaliers’ offense did not play up to their level as they shot just 44.6% (37-83) from the field.  Cleveland wasn’t aggressive enough either as they had just 13 free throw attempts in the entire game.  LeBron James and Kevin Love both had off nights as they combined to scored just 25 points on 34.5% (10-29) shooting from the field.  That duo attempted just 3 total free throws.  Cleveland scored just 97 points in their previous loss, and off back-to-back bad offensive games, we expect the Cavaliers’ offense to explode tonight.  Cleveland has scored 100 points or more in six of their ten games so far this season. 

Washington is 7-3 on the season, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule so far.  The Wizards own wins over Orlando (2x), New York, Milwaukee, Indiana (2x), and Detroit.  Those five teams are a combined 23-39 on the season with only one team, Milwaukee, having a winning record at 7-5.  The Wizards’ defense is not in good current form as they’ve given up 103 points or more in three of their last five games.  Overall this season, Washington has allowed 90 points or more in nine of their ten games, and those games were against weak offensive teams.  Cleveland has one of the best offenses in the league, so the Wizards will be hard-pressed to keep them under 100 points in this game, especially since the Cavaliers are off back-to-back poor performances.  We’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Friday night.             

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Cleveland comes into this game off back-to-back losses in which they scored just 90 and 97 points.  The Cavaliers’ offense is too good to play another clunker, and since they are off two poor performances, we expect the offense to explode in this game.  Cleveland’s offense did not play up to their level in their last game as they shot just 44.6% (37-83) from the field.  Cleveland wasn’t aggressive enough either as they had just 13 free throw attempts in the entire game.  LeBron James and Kevin Love both had off nights as they combined to scored just 25 points on 34.5% (10-29) shooting from the field.  That duo attempted just 3 total free throws.  Cleveland has scored 100 points or more in six of their ten games so far this season, and they’ll eclipse the century mark once again tonight.     

Washington’s defense is not in good current form as they’ve given up 103 points or more in three of their last five games.  Overall this season, Washington has allowed 90 points or more in nine of their ten games, and those games were against weak offensive teams.  They’ve given up 103 points or more in four games.  Cleveland has one of the best offenses in the league, so the Wizards will be hard-pressed to keep them under 100 points in this game, especially since the Cavaliers are off back-to-back poor performances.  Washington also has a strong offense, and this game will feature two up and coming point guards, John Wall and Kyrie Irving, who will be looking to showcase their talents in this nationally televised game.  We expect a fast pace and efficient offensive production in what will be a high-scoring game between the Cavaliers and Wizards on Friday night.      

9* Play OVER the total.

George Washington is a very good team that returned four starters from last year’s 24-9 team that advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament.  The Colonials also got Kethan Savage back from injury; he broke his foot in January and missed eight weeks.  George Washington is 2-0 on the season with a pair of blowout wins over inferior opponents.  One thing was clear in both wins; the Colonials’ exceptional defense from last season has carried over.  George Washington held their opponents to just 41.6% from the field last season.  So far this season, the Colonials are holding opponents to just 46.5 points per game on 31.8% shooting from the field and 21.4% shooting from three-point land.    

Virginia is a good team that is well coached.  The Cavaliers were terrific last season while winning 30 games and earning a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.  They return seven of their top nine players from last season, so they project to be a very good team once again.  However, the two players they lost, Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell, were vital components to their team.  Harris was the leading scorer while Mitchell was their best defender.  Head coach Tony Bennett knows how important those two guys were to the team’s success.  “That was what set our team apart, how cohesive they were. You take away two talented guys, and it’s a different identity and mentality. Can we replace those intangibles Joe and Akil brought at such a high level?”  Both teams play at a slow pace and focus on defense, so we’ll take the big points in a low-scoring defensive slugfest. 

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (+).

SMU comes into this game off an ugly 72-56 loss at Gonzaga on Monday night.  While the Mustangs did not play well at all in that game, there’s not much shame in that loss because Gonzaga will be one of the top teams in the country this season.  Head coach Larry Brown has been able to get his team to bounce back strong off losses; SMU went 7-2 SU when playing off a loss last season with all seven wins coming by 3 points or more.  The Mustangs won 27 games last season, and with their best players all back this season, SMU projects to be an excellent team once again.   

Indiana is 2-0 on the season with those wins coming by a combined 70 points.  However, the Hoosiers played two inferior opponents in Mississippi Valley State and Texas Southern.  Indiana hit an incredible 55.3% (21-38) of their three-pointers in those games which aided their big margins of victory.  The Hoosiers were picked to finish 10th in the Big 10 this season, and with a huge step-up in class, we expect Indiana to regress sharply in this game.  Indiana lost five of their best players from last season, including three terrific frontcourt players.  The Hoosiers are extremely weak inside the paint, and they’ll be at a major disadvantage against the Mustangs in this game.  SMU is simply the much better team, and since they are off a loss, we’ll lay the points with the Mustangs in this game on Thursday night.         

9* Play SMU (-).

San Antonio has been up and down this season.  The Spurs are obviously focused on just getting thru the regular season with a healthy team with an eye towards the playoffs.  San Antonio has already started to sit players in certain spots, and while we don’t expect that to be the case in this game, it certainly shows the mindset they have in navigating thru the regular season.  San Antonio is just 6-4 overall, including a 3-3 record on the road.  The Spurs’ offense is averaging just 92.7 points per game on the road while only averaging 41.5% shooting from the field this season.  San Antonio will need to increase their scoring by a big margin if they want to be competitive tonight as Cleveland averages 108 points per game on their home court.   

Cleveland hasn’t started this season as most expected.  The Cavaliers are just 5-4 overall, including a 2-2 record at home.  Cleveland does come into this game off a 106-97 home loss to Denver in their last game.  The Cavaliers shot just 43% (34-79) from the field; it was just the third time this season Cleveland was held to less than 100 points.  Cleveland has bounced back strong off losses this season; they are 2-1 SU and ATS with their lone loss coming on a back-to-back set when playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  This is a much bigger game for Cleveland, especially since they are coming off an ugly loss.  We’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers on Wednesday night.             

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Texas Tech has a lot of question marks coming into this season.  The Red Raiders are picked to finish dead last in the Big 12 conference as their roster was turned upside down with players transferring in the off-season.  Texas Tech has just two guys returning with any experience, and one of their better players, Aaron Ross, is out with a knee injury.  Head coach Tubby Smith knows his team is in for a long season, especially early on.  “We’re going to be a lot younger,” Smith said.  “It’s going to take some time for our guys to mature and get experience.”  

LSU is set to win right away.  The Tigers are in the third year of head coach Johnny Jones’ system, and they finally have the length and athleticism to run their fast-paced attack.  The team won 20 games and advanced to the second round of the NIT tournament last season.  LSU also added a huge piece to their coaching staff in Eric Musselman, who is widely regarded as an uptempo coaching guru.  LSU scored 93 points after shooting 52.2% from the field in their season opening win.  The Tigers simply have too much offense for Texas Tech, and since LSU is in a better position to win right now, we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night.  

9* Play LSU (-).

Northeastern will be a decent team this season, and they are actually picked #1 in the Colonial Athletic conference.  But just how good is that conference considering Northeastern is picked to win it despite going just 11-21 overall and 7-9 in conference play last season?  The Huskies will simply be out-classed in this game against Florida State, especially inside the paint and on the glass.  Northeastern is also trying to work their guys into shape as their best players are all returning from injury.  The Huskies only use a 7-man rotation, and that group struggled against Boston University in their season opener; they trailed 37-26 at the half before rallying for a 71-65 win.    

Florida State is flying well under the radar this season.  The Seminoles will surprise a lot of teams this season, and we expect them to handle Northeastern pretty easily tonight.  Florida State  has a lot of experience and tremendous depth; eight guys played 18 minutes or more in their 81-66 season opening win over Manhattan.  The Seminoles are a big team that rotates three seven-footers in the frontcourt.  Florida State’s backcourt is also back to health this season after two starters missed many games last season due to injury.  The Seminoles have too much offense for Northeastern; they shot 57.5% from the field with six players scoring in double digits in their first game.  Florida State is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night.       

10* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Houston and Memphis have the two best records in the NBA.  The Rockets and Grizzlies both come into this game with 9-1 records, so this should be a good, competitive game on Monday night.  Houston comes in off an ugly 69-65 win at Oklahoma City last night.  The Rockets’ offense was terrible as they shot just 28.7% (23-80) from the floor and 20% (7-35) from three-point land.  Houston was also terrible from the free throw line, hitting only 53.3% (16-30).  That was Houston’s worst offensive game with the current group of players they have, and off such an awful performance, we expect the Rockets to bounce back with a strong offensive showing tonight.   

Memphis’ offense comes into this game in good current form.  The Grizzlies have scored 313 points in their last three games, and there’s no reason they won’t continue their scoring ways.  Memphis has strong seasonal numbers on defense, but they’ve played a weak slate of opposing offenses.  Memphis has played five opponents with efficient offenses, and the Grizzlies gave up and average of 97 points per game to those opponents.  Those five games also had an average of 200.6 points per game scored.  Houston also has strong seasonal numbers on defense.  But they’ve also played mostly bad offensive teams.  In four games against efficient offenses, the Rockets have allowed 93.8 points per game with those games averaging 197.8 points scored.  Houston likes to play at a fast pace, and Memphis has shown a willingness to play up-tempo against quick teams this season.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Rockets and Grizzlies on Monday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Louisiana Tech is a loaded team this season.  The Bulldogs return four starters from last year’s 29-8 team that reached the quarterfinals of the NIT.  Louisiana Tech head coach Michael White turned down a big offer from Tennessee to stay, knowing how good his team will be this season.  Since taking over in 2011, White has led the Bulldogs to an impressive 74-31 record with 56 of those wins coming over the last two years with the current players on the roster.  Louisiana Tech opened their season with a ho-hum 85-76 win over Southern.  Four players scored 15 points or more, and they were aggressive in getting to the free throw line 40 times.  The Bulldogs weren’t that efficient, but with a name opponent in Temple, we expect a much sharper performance in this game.       

Temple also comes in off a win in their season opener; the Owls beat American in a ugly 40-37 defensive slugfest.  Temple went a terrible 9-22 last season, and this year doesn’t look too promising either.  The Owls lost two of their top scorers from last year’s team, and the plans to replace them have been put on hold.  Temple was counting on Clemson transfer Devin Coleman and UMass transfer Jesse Morgan, but both are still ineligible to play.  Another transfer from Texas, Jaylen Boyd, has an ankle injury that forced his to miss the American game.  Temple has a limited offense right now, and that was evident in their first game when they shot 22.9% (11-48) from the field and 26.3% (5-19) from three-point land.  Louisiana Tech is the much better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night.         

9* Play LOUISIANA TECH (-).

George Washington is set to win right away.  The Colonials return four starters from last year’s 24-9 team that advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament.  The Colonials will also get Kethan Savage back from injury; he broke his foot in January and missed eight weeks.  George Washington already played a game this season, and that was a 92-40 blowout of Grambling State.  That game was like a glorified practice for the Colonials, and it gives them a nice advantage coming into this game against Rutgers.  George Washington had a terrific defense last season, holding opponents to just 41.6% from the field.  They held Grambling State to just 28.3% (15-53) from the field and 20% (2-10) from three-point land.    

Rutgers has a lot of question marks coming into this season.  The Scarlet Knights are picked to finish dead last in the Big 10 conference as their roster was turned upside down with players transferring in the off-season.  Rutgers has just three guys returning with any experience, and their best player, Kadeem Jack, is dealing with a nagging thumb injury.  He’s questionable to play in this game, and if he doesn’t, Rutgers has little chance to be competitive.  Even if Jack plays, head coach Eddie Jordan said that his conditioning is way short from missing so much practice time.  George Washington is in a better position to win right now, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night.  

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (-).

Orlando is playing better basketball than expected so far this season.  The Magic come into this game with a respectable 4-6 record, including back-to-back wins.  However, Orlando is still one of the worst teams in the NBA.  The Magic’s roster is not NBA caliber, and they are simply overachieving right now.  Orlando is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Washington tonight.  The Magic will be playing their fourth game in five nights while on a back-to-back set with this being their third road game since Tuesday night.  Orlando also rallied back from a 13-point deficit last night which was ignited by the return of Victor Oladipo who scored 13 points in 25 minutes off the bench.  That game was at home, and with this game coming on the road, we expect regression from Orlando tonight.  

Washington is flying well under the radar so far this season.  The Wizards are 6-2 on the season, including a perfect 3-0 at home.  Washington comes into this game with two full days of rest as this will be just their second game of the week.  The Wizards hold a huge scheduling edge over Orlando in this game, so the Wizards will be fresh while the Magic will be fatigued.  Washington has a terrific defense that is giving up just 96.9 points per game on 43.8% shooting from the field.  The Wizards rank 6th in defensive efficiency, and they will be facing an Orlando offense that ranks 25th in offensive efficiency.  We expect Washington to control this game from start to finish, so we’ll lay the points with the Wizards on Saturday night.             

9* Play WIZARDS (-).

Charlotte is a team we expected improvement from this season.  The Hornets are now in head coach Steve Clifford’s second season, and they added some good players to the young core they already had.  The Hornets come into tonight’s game with just a 3-5 SU record, but they’ve played a tough slate of opposing defenses.  Charlotte has faced the Grizzlies, Bucks, Hawks, and Blazers who all rank in the top 12 in defensive efficiency.  Despite that, only one of Charlotte’s five losses this season has come by more than 9 points.  The Hornets have a solid defense as well as they rank #11 in defensive efficiency so far.

Phoenix comes in off a 112-104 home win over Brooklyn on Wednesday night.  The Suns trailed throughout that game, and at one point they were down by 19 points.  Phoenix made a big comeback after out-scoring the Nets 63-41 in the second half.  That win has Phoenix at 5-3 SU on the season, but two of their wins came against the awful Lakers.  Phoenix was a spread machine last season, but the Suns are just 3-4-1 ATS this season.  Phoenix has a good offense, but their defense has not been good this year as they are allowing 103.4 points per game.  Charlotte is a scrappy team, so we’ll take the points with the Hornets in this game on Friday night.  

9* Play HORNETS (+).

Tennessee is a mess of a team and program right now.  The Volunteers ousted coach Cuonzo Martin and in steps Donnie Tyndall who comes over from Southern Mississippi.  After Martin left for California, players decided to leave Tennessee as well.  The Vols made it to the Sweet 16 last season, but they are a shell of that team.  Tennessee lost four of their five starters, and all four of their highly ranked recruits decided to go to another school.  Tyndall is now being investigated for improper actions while at Southern Mississippi, so that is another distraction.  “We’re certainly going to be the least-experienced teams in the SEC, maybe all of college basketball,” said Tyndall.  “We signed eight guys from all different angles. We will be very youthful and inexperienced.” 

VCU is built to win right away as they return 69.3% of their minutes played from last year’s 26-9 team.  The Rams are just one of three teams to win 26 games or more over the last five seasons; Duke and Syracuse are the others.  VCU plays at a furious pace, and their up and down style wears teams out, especially early in the season.  The Rams have exceptional conditioning, and against an inexperienced team like Tennessee, VCU’s ability to wreak havoc and create turnovers makes this game a complete mismatch.  The Rams are the better team by a wide margin, so we expect VCU to win this game easily by double digits.  

10* Play VCU (-).

Portland is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in Denver tonight.  The Blazers played at home last night, and they needed a big comeback to beat Charlotte.  They out-scored the Hornets 27-15 in the fourth quarter to win by 2 points (102-100), and off such a draining comeback, the Blazers will not have their legs as they have to play this game in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  Portland is also playing their third game in four nights, and since they have two days off after this game before a 3-game home stand, this is an easy game for the Blazers to simply go thru the motions.

Denver has not played good basketball this season.  The Nuggets are just 1-5 SU on the season with their lone win coming in their season opener.  However, Denver has played much better in their three home games as they beat Detroit while losing to Sacramento by 5 points (110-105) and Cleveland by 9 points (110-101).  Denver has had two full days of rest since playing on Sunday in Portland.  The Nuggets lost that game 116-100, but Denver out-scored Portland 56-30 inside the paint.  The Blazers were hot from outside as they hit 51.6% (16-31) from three-point land.  Denver also got to the free throw line 30 times; Portland had just 14 free throw attempts.  Denver played a winning game, so in this rematch, we’ll lay the points with the Nuggets, especially since they are in an advantageous scheduling spot.         

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Utah has alternated wins and losses over their last seven games, and they come into tonight’s game off a loss in Indiana.  The Jazz are 3-1 SU and ATS off a loss this season, so they’ve shown an ability to bounce back strong off a loss.  Utah has a lot of good, young talent that plays hard each and every game.  The Jazz have one major weakness, and that is keeping opponents off the offensive glass.  Utah’s blowout losses this season have come against strong offensive rebounding teams; the Pacers held a whopping 20-8 edge on second-chance points on Monday night.  The Jazz get a big class relief for tonight’s game as Atlanta is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the NBA as they rank 28th out of 30 teams.  Utah’s biggest weakness will be a non-factor in this game.     

Atlanta is just 3-3 on the season despite playing a very weak schedule so far.  The Hawks own two wins over the Knicks and a win over the Pacers; those are two of the worst teams in the East.  All three of Atlanta’s wins have come by 10 points or less with two of their wins coming by 7 points or less.  The Hawks are not built to blow teams out, and that is especially true for this game since Atlanta will be without starter DeMarre Carroll and second unit player Mike Scott due to injury.  The Hawks have a limited rotation, and it will be altered tonight.  Utah head coach Quin Snyder was an Atlanta assistant last season, and his job was to scout the Hawks’ opposition.  That means he knows the Hawks’ strengths and weaknesses better than anyone, and that gives Snyder and the Jazz a huge edge in this game.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Utah on Wednesday night.

9* Play JAZZ (+).

Sacramento's guard Darren Collison has been downgraded to doubtful for this game tonight due to a shoulder injury, however the pointspread has now risen a full point from +6.5 to +7.5 because of the news, so the Kings present solid value, especially considering Dallas is a poor defensive team.  Sacramento was a team we expected improvement from last season, and we had a lot of success playing on the Kings in certain situations.  The main reason was the presence of new head coach Mike Mallone who is a defensive mastermind.  Now in Mallone’s second season, we expect the Kings to improve more, especially on the defensive end.  The Kings come into tonight’s game with a 5-2 record despite playing a tough schedule that included the Warriors, Blazers, Clippers and Nuggets twice.  Sacramento ranks #8 in defensive efficiency despite playing three teams ranked in the top ten in offensive efficiency.  The Kings come in off a loss in Oklahoma City in their last game, but they were in a letdown spot for that game, so we can forgive that result.

Dallas comes in off a 105-96 home loss to Miami on Sunday.  That was the Mavericks second loss over their past three games, so they are not in the best of form.  Overall, Dallas is just 4-3 on the season with two of their wins coming by just 5 point each.  The Mavericks have a good offense, but their defense is terrible as they rank 26th in defensive efficiency despite playing a slew of weak offensive teams.  Dallas is allowing 102.1 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field.  At home, the Mavericks’ defense has been even worse as they are giving up 106.7 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field.  Sacramento has played the better basketball this season, so we’ll take the points with the Kings in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play KINGS (+).

Detroit is 2-4 SU and an ugly 0-6 ATS this season.  However, the Pistons were a market favorite coming into this season, and the posted pointspreads on their game reflected that.  Despite winning just 29 games last season, Detroit has been a favorite in four of their six games this season.  The Pistons have been underdogs just twice, and those games were on the road in their first two games of the year.  After recent results, the Pistons are now installed as big underdogs for the first time this season, and the line presents good value to back Detroit.  I still expect Detroit to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season despite their slow start.  The results have yet to show on the scoreboard, but the Pistons’ play on the court has been much better than last season thanks to the presence of new head coach Stan Van Gundy.  

Chicago is certainly one of the best teams in the league when healthy, but the Bulls have had players going in and out of the lineup all season.  Chicago’s best player, Derrick Rose, is hit or miss to play with nagging ankle injuries; Rose did miss shoot-around this morning.  Regardless if Rose plays or not, this is a lot of points for Chicago to lay, especially since they have no cohesion right now.  The Bulls have just one blowout win this season, and that came way back in their season opener against the terrible Knicks.  Chicago’s wins since have come by 1, 8, 9, and 3 points.  Detroit has played in close games as their four losses have come by an average of 7.3 points per game.  This is a good spot for Detroit, so we’ll take the points with the Pistons on Monday night.

9* Play PISTONS (+).

Boston and Chicago both played and won in high-scoring shootouts last night.  The Celtics beat Indiana 101-98 while the Bulls beat Philadelphia 118-115.  Off those impressive games, both teams must wheel right back and play tonight in Chicago.  Not only is Boston playing on back-to-back nights, but they are also playing their third game in four nights.  The Celtics will also be without Rajon Rondo in this game; he is having a screw removed from his hand.  Boston’s Marcus Smart also suffered a bad ankle injury last night, and he will also miss this game.  The absence of those players really alters Boston’s rotation, and since the Celtics have three days off after this game, we do not expect them to come with a focused effort. 

Chicago is also in a terrible scheduling spot for tonight’s game against Boston.  The Bulls are playing on back-to-back nights with this also being their fourth game in five nights.  Chicago’s offense was terrific last night as they shot 51.3% (40-78) from the field and 50% (12-24) from three-point land.  The Bulls also got to the free throw line 34 times, hitting 76.5% (26-34) of their attempts.  Chicago’s defense was not up to par last night as they allowed the Sixers to score 39 points in the fourth quarter.  But that weak defensive effort was in correlation to the fast pace Philadelphia forced on Chicago.  The Bulls are now back at home where they will dictate a slower pace against the Celtics who are missing their floor general.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Celtics and Bulls on Saturday night.    

9* Play UNDER the total.

Sacramento was a team we expected improvement from last season, and we had a lot of success playing on the Kings in certain situations.  The main reason was the presence of new head coach Mike Mallone who is a defensive mastermind.  Now in Mallone’s second season, we expect the Kings to improve more, especially on the defensive end.  The Kings come into tonight’s game with a 4-1 record despite playing a tough schedule that included the Warriors, Blazers, Clippers and Nuggets twice.  In three of those games, Sacramento held their opponent to 95, 94, and 92 points.  Overall, Sacramento ranks #9 in defensive efficiency despite playing three teams ranked in the top ten in offensive efficiency.  

Phoenix comes in off a 102-91 home loss to Memphis on Wednesday night.  The Suns are 3-2 on the season, but two of those wins have come against the awful Lakers.  Their other win only came by 5 points over the struggling Spurs.  Phoenix was a spread machine last season as the oddsmakers greatly undervalued the Suns all season.  But that’s not going to repeat itself this season; the Suns are just 2-2-1 ATS, including 1-2-1 ATS as a favorite.  Phoenix has a good offense, but their defense has not been good this season as they are allowing 102.8 points per game.  Sacramento has played the better basketball this season, so we’ll take the points with the Kings in this game on Friday night.  

10* Play KINGS (+).

The Los Angeles Clippers will be one of the best teams in the NBA at season’s end, but right now, they are simply playing themselves into the flow of the 82-game grind.  The Clippers have sort of gone thru the motions early on, and their play against mediocre opposition has been less than impressive.  Los Angeles only beat the Thunder by 3 points (93-90), the Lakers by 7 points (118-111), and the Jazz by 6 points (107-101).  The Clippers lost 98-92 at home to the Kings.  None of those four opponents are as good as the Warriors, and since the Clippers struggled with all of them, this game against Golden State doesn’t bode to well for Los Angeles.     

Golden State has played terrific basketball this season.  The Warriors are a perfect 3-0 with all three wins coming by 5 points or more.  Golden State and Los Angeles have played two common opponents, the Kings and Lakers.  As noted above, the Clippers struggled with those teams while the Warriors beat the Kings by 18 points (95-77) and beat the Lakers by 23 points (127-104).  Golden State’s defense has been tremendous, and right now they are ranked #1 in efficiency metrics.  To compare, the Clippers rank #15 in defensive efficiency, and since they’ve played the same opponents as the Warriors, the difference is significant.  Golden State is simply playing better basketball right now, so we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in this game on Wednesday night.      

9* Play WARRIORS (-).

Memphis comes into this game in Phoenix with a perfect 4-0 record.  The Grizzlies won three of those games with their defense, holding their opponents to 89 points or less.  However, the Pacers and Bobcats have the two worst offenses in the NBA right now while the Hornets were coming off back-to-back games in which they scored more than 100 points.  Memphis’ lone game against a good offense came at home against Minnesota, and the Grizzlies gave up 101 points and allowed the Timberwolves to play at their preferred fast pace.  Memphis will now face a very good Suns’ offense on their home court, and since Phoenix also plays at a fast pace, we expect Memphis’ defense to regress while playing an uptempo game.    

Phoenix is also off to a fast start this season as the Suns come into this game with a 3-1 record.  The Suns have played solid offensive basketball as they’ve scored 91 points or more in every game while averaging 104 points per game overall.  Phoenix played the Lakers last night in Los Angeles, so their defense will be forgiving tonight.  The Grizzlies’ offense plays inside-out, and since they hold a big edge in the paint, Memphis will score a lot of easy baskets in this game.  The Suns’ offense scored 91 points or more in all four meetings against Memphis last year, and since they are playing them early in the season, Phoenix will take advantage of their speed and also score a lot of easy baskets.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Grizzlies and Suns on Wednesday night.  

10* Play OVER the total.

Orlando is one of the worst teams in the NBA.  The Magic’s roster is not NBA caliber, and they are simply going thru the motions this season in order to secure another high spot in the draft.  Orlando is 0-3 SU and ATS on the season.  They’ve allowed 101 points or more in every game while scoring 98 points or less in every game.  The Magic’s three games have all come against non-elite teams, but they’ve been blown out.  Orlando will face an elite tonight as Chicago is definitely one of the best teams in the league.  The Magic will be hard-pressed to be competitive in this game as there is simply a huge gap between these two teams.  

Chicago is 2-1 on the season with their lone loss coming in overtime to Cleveland.  Chicago’s last game was only a 1-point (106-105) win over Minnesota, but we can discount that result as the Bulls were playing the night after their overtime game with the Cavaliers, and they were also without Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson due to injury.  Chicago has had two days off since that game, and since both Rose and Gibson will be back on the court tonight, we expect a prime effort by the Bulls.  Chicago has a lot of depth with the additions of Pau Gasol, Aaron Brooks, Doug McDermott, and Nikola Mirotic.  Those guys bolster Chicago’s offense to hold and stretch-out leads which is important in this spread range.  We’ll lay the points with Chicago in this game on Tuesday night.       

10* Play BULLS (-).

Milwaukee finished with the worst record in the NBA last season, so there’s nowhere to go but up in 2014.  The Bucks have a new head coach in Jason Kidd, and they have promising young talent on the roster.  The Bucks will be a tough out this season, and they’ve shown that in their three games this season.  Milwaukee is just 1-2 on the season, but one loss came by just 2 points (108-106) in Charlotte in overtime and the other loss only came by 11 points (108-97) in Washington despite the Wizards shooting 54.8% (40-73) from the field and taking 33 free throws.  Milwaukee has one of the best benches in the NBA, and their edge on the second unit will be a major factor in this game.  

Indiana is not the same team that they were last season.  The Pacers lost Lance Stephenson to free agency, and Paul George suffered a gruesome leg injury over the summer while playing for Team USA.  Indiana is without their best two players on both ends of the court, especially on offense as 36.2 points per game is now missing.  Indiana has a terrible offense this season.  They’ve scored just 92 and 89 points in their last two games, and they will struggle once again tonight against a Milwaukee defense that is holding opponents to 43.5% shooting from the field.  We’ll take the points with Milwaukee in this game as Indiana has no business laying points into any team right now.

9* Play BUCKS (+).

Brooklyn and Detroit both come into this game winless on the season; the Nets are 0-1 while the Pistons are 0-2.  Brooklyn’s loss came in Boston after they allowed the Celtics to score 121 points on 55.7% (49-88) shooting from the floor.  The Nets gave up a whopping 62 points in the paint despite Boston playing a small ball style.  That’s not a good sign for Brooklyn in this game, especially since Detroit has one of the best frontcourts in the NBA and the Pistons expect to get center Greg Monroe back from his two game suspension tonight.  The Nets are working in a new system under new head coach Lionel Hollins who is their fourth different coach over the past two seasons.  The Nets are also without their best player and big man, center Brook Lopez, who is out with a foot injury.  Brooklyn is an old and aging team that is limited, and it’s simply going to take time for them to play as a cohesive unit.

Detroit comes in off two close losses in games they could have won.  The Pistons lost both games in the final couple of minutes, but with this being their home opener, we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight.  The Pistons made an excellent hire in the off-season as new head coach Stan Van Gundy is a huge upgrade over the poor Detroit staff of last season.  The Pistons underachieved greatly last season, but with a solid nucleus and good coaching, Detroit should now be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  The results have yet to show on the scoreboard, but the Pistons’ play on the court has been much better than last year.  This is a good spot for Detroit to get their first win, so we’ll lay the points with the Pistons on Saturday night.

9* Play PISTONS (-).

Memphis basically returns their entire team from the last couple of seasons, and they’ve added some nice role players to their second unit.  The Grizzlies won their season opener 105-101 over a scrappy Minnesota team on Wednesday night.  Memphis dominated that game in the paint as they out-scored the Timberwolves 58-34 in the middle.  The Grizzlies will do the same thing tonight against an Indiana team that was out-scored 48-32 inside the paint in their season opener against the lowly Sixers.  Memphis is an elite team compared to Philadelphia, so the Pacers are taking a major step-up in class for this game tonight.      

Indiana was the best team over the first half of last season.  But things are much different this season despite the Pacers winning their season opener.  Indiana lost Lance Stephenson to free agency, and Paul George suffered a gruesome leg injury over the summer while playing for Team USA.  That leaves Indiana minus their best two players on both ends of the court.  The Pacers only scored 96.7 points per game last season with those guys on the court, and with 36.2 points per game missing, Indiana will have a terrible offense this season.  We will disregard the 103 points they scored on Philadelphia on Wednesday night because the points came against the Sixers who project to be one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Memphis in this game on Friday night. 

10* Play GRIZZLIES (-).

Detroit made an excellent hire in the off-season, and we expect it to pay dividends right away.  New head coach Stan Van Gundy is a huge upgrade over the poor Detroit staff of last season.  Gundy’s presence alone will boost the Pistons by more than a few wins.  Detroit also has one of the best young frontcourts in the league, led by Andre Drummond.  The Pistons underachieved last season, but with a solid nucleus and good coaching, I expect Detroit to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.

Denver has a good roster, but the Nuggets will struggle early on this season.  Denver’s best offensive players, Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari, Nate Robinson, and JaVale McGee are all returning from major injuries and their minutes will be watched closely in the early part of the season.  “It’s a process,” guard Arron Afflalo said.  “Trying to get an entire healthy group, plus a couple of other guys acclimated. It’s not going to be a snap-of-a-finger type of process. The coaches understood that dynamic coming in. You just kind of get through the preseason and not pass judgment too much.”  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Detroit on Wednesday night.  

9* Play PISTONS (+).

Chicago is loaded with talent, and they have a coach in Tom Thibodeau that gets the most out of his players.  With a healthy Derrick Rose, the Bulls have the potential to make a run at the title.  Rose was terrific in the preseason, and he scored 57 points in the last two games.  Chicago also added Pau Gasol, Aaron Brooks, Doug McDermott, and Nikola Mirotic who will all bolster Chicago’s offense.  The Bulls always bring their defense under Thibodeau, and if the team avoids the injury bug, Chicago will be one of the best teams in the NBA this season.        

The New York Knicks are breaking in a new system under new GM Phil Jackson and new head coach Derek Fisher.  The Knicks are installing the triangle offense, but they simply do not have the right personnel nor the experience to run it correctly right now.  New York struggled with the offense throughout the preseason, and they are also dealing with injuries to Andrea Bargnani and Jose Calderon.  “This is difficult to do,” said head coach Fisher.  “Last night, we talked about we’re not just installing new software to the computer. We’re building a computer from scratch, and that’s not easy to do.”  Chicago is ready to win right away while New York is going thru a transition, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulls in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play BULLS (-).

Miami comes into tonight’s game off back-to-back blowout home losses.  The Heat lost by 19 points in Game 3 and by 21 points in Game 4.  Those two losses are not a true representation of these two teams, and we can fully expect Miami to bring their ‘A’ game tonight.  The Heat didn’t shoot all that poorly in Game 4; they shot 45.1% (32-71) from the field and 40.9% (9-22) from three-point land.  Miami’s issue came at the free throw line where they shot an ugly 65.0% (13-20).  For the season, Miami is a solid free throw shooting team as they hit 76.4% from the line.  Miami will make their free throws tonight, and that will make them much more competitive than they were in the last two games.  Miami has also proven they can win on San Antonio’s home court; they won Game 2 (98-96) and they also won Game 4 in last year’s NBA Finals (109-93).  Miami is also 13-1 SU off a loss in the playoffs over the last few seasons.

San Antonio’s offense has been incredible in the last two games.  The Spurs shot a combined 58.2% (78-134) from the field in Games 3 and 4.  Those shooting numbers are unsustainable, and with San Antonio up 3-1 in the series and returning home off a pair of blowout road wins, we expect some regression tonight.  The Spurs also shot incredibly well from three-point land as they hit 43.9% (18-41), and from the free throw line where they hit 77.2% (44-57).  It’s hard to see San Antonio being efficient in all three offensive categories tonight.  This line is also inflated as it’s an 10.5-point swing from Game 4 when Miami was a 5-point favorite.  It’s also a 1.5-point difference from Game 2 when Miami was just a 4-point underdog on San Antonio’s home court.  Miami holds excellent value as they are a Class-A team coming off back-to-back blowout losses in which they trailed by 25 points or more in each game.  We’ll take the points with Miami in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.

10* Play HEAT (+).

Two of the first three games in this series have gone Over the total, but both of those results were misleading.  Game 1 only went Over the total by 7 points despite 25 three-point shots made by both teams.  Game 3 only went Over the total by 6 points despite hot shooting and a lot of free throws.  San Antonio shot an incredible 59.4% (38-64) from the field and 45.0% (9-20) from three-point land.  The Spurs also hit 81.2% (26-32) from the free throw line.  Miami shot 51.6% (32-62) from the field and 47.6% (10-21) from three-point land.  The Heat also hit 75.0% (18-24) from the free throw line.  The pace of Game 3 was extremely slow as the teams only combined to take 126 shots in the game.  We expect the shooting to cool off for both teams, and since the pace of play has been slow, Game 4 will be much lower scoring tonight.

This is a rematch of last year's NBA Finals, so we have a large amount of data to work with since these teams played a full seven games and they have the identical lineups this season.  Even though two of the first three games have gone Over, these are still two veteran lineups that know how to play defense when needed.  Game 4 did go Over the total last year, however the Over/Under line was just 186 in that game.  Tonight’s posted total is 11 points higher this season which means the Under holds some tremendous value, especially since five of the seven games last year had 190 total points or less scored in regulation time (Game 6 went to overtime).  The seven games in the NBA Finals last season averaged only 193 total points per game (in regulation time) with a median score of just 190 total points per game.  My mathematical re-scoring model still favors the Under as the three games so far this season should have averaged just 192.8 points per game when adjusting for pace of play.  With a return to normal shooting percentages, Game 4 of the NBA Finals will be lower scoring tonight.

10* Play UNDER (Spurs/Heat).

Game 3 favored San Antonio, and we won an easy Best Bet selection on the Spurs when they beat Miami 111-92.  However, the situation is much different now in Game 4 and Miami is now the team in a good situation.  The Heat lost at home for just the tenth time this season, and it was their first home loss in the playoffs this season.  In three home games following a previous home loss, Miami went 2-1 SU and ATS with the two wins coming by 23 and 11 points.  Miami is the two-time defending NBA champion and they have consistently shown the ability to bounce back after a playoff loss.  In fact, the Heat are a perfect 13-0 SU off their past 13 playoff defeats.  Going back further, Miami is 19-7 ATS following a playoff loss, including 11-0 ATS after a loss by 11+ points.

San Antonio shot the lights out in Game 3.  The Spurs shot an incredible 59.4% (38-64) from the field and 45.0% (9-20) from three-point land.  The Spurs also hit 81.2% (26-32) from the free throw line.  Miami’s defense was obviously poor in Game 3, but off a blowout loss, we can expect the Heat to buckle down tonight.  It was just the fourth time in the playoffs that Miami allowed more than 100 points.  In three games directly following, Miami has allowed just 96, 83, and 96 points.  All three of those games resulted in Miami wins, and it’s impressive considering that all three wins came on the road.  Miami should bounce back even stronger at home tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Heat in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

9* Play HEAT (-).

This series is tied at two games apiece after Miami won at home on Sunday night.  That game went back and forth in the fourth quarter, and the Heat simply made the shots to win the game.  San Antonio is in a good bounce back spot tonight off that loss, and there is solid value with the Spurs at an underdog price.  San Antonio has played 20 games in the playoffs this season, and they’ve only been an underdog in four of those games.  They went 2-2 SU in those games, but one game came after a 4-day layoff, so we can discount those results.  San Antonio’s offense shot poorly from the field in Game 2 as they hit just 43.9% (36-82) and a terrible 60.0% (12-20) from the free throw line.  The Spurs missed critical free throws in the fourth quarter, including four straight after a technical foul on Miami.  Those misses turned the game around as the Spurs would have taken control and stretched their lead with a few minutes left to play.  San Antonio is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the league at 78.1%, so we expect them to make their attempts tonight.

Miami was in a strong situational spot for Game 2, and they cashed a Best Bet selection for us in their 98-96 win over the Spurs.  The Heat shot an incredible 52.9% (37-70) from the field and 42.1% (8-19) from three-point land.  LeBron James played superb as he scored 35 points on 63.6% (14-22) from the field, including a perfect 3-for-3 from beyond the arc.  James was on a mission after missing most of the fourth quarter in Game 1 due to leg cramps; he took a lot of negative press after the series opener.  Miami is now in a bit of a flat spot after their outright road win in Game 2.  The Spurs and Heat alternated wins and losses in the first six games of the Finals last season, including an easy 36-point bounce back win by San Antonio in Game 3, and there’s no reason that trend won’t repeat itself this year.  We’ll take the points with San Antonio in Game 3 of the NBA Finals tonight.

10* Play SPURS (+).

There is no question that the loss of LeBron James in the fourth quarter due to leg cramps made a huge difference in Game 1.  The Heat were winning when James first left with 7:37 remaining in the fourth quarter, and the Heat were trailing by only 2 points when James left the game and never returned at the 4:00 mark.  San Antonio shot an incredible 87.5% from the field as a team in the fourth quarter.  Miami obviously missed LeBron James' defensive presence, but it also appeared the Heat loss focus as an entire team defensively without their superstar on the court.

The situation will be different now in Game 2 on Sunday night as Miami and LeBron James have had two full days of rest and practice to regroup.  Miami is still the two-time defending NBA champion and they have consistently shown the ability to bounce back after a playoff loss.  In fact, the Heat are a perfect 12-0 SU off their past twelve playoff defeats.  Going back further, Miami is 18-7 ATS following a playoff loss, including 10-0 ATS after a loss by 11+ points.

Miami is a perfect 5-0 ATS in Game 2 after a loss and this is the third straight year that Miami has lost Game 1 of the NBA Finals.  In each of the past two seasons, the Heat have bounced back to win Game 2 and the NBA championship overall.  In 2012, Miami lost at Oklahoma City in Game 1 by 11 points and responded with a straight-up win as a +5.5 point road underdog in Game 2.  The game was never as close as the 100-96 final score indicated as Miami led by 17 points and never trailed in the entire game.  Last year, Miami lost outright as a home favorite versus the Spurs in Game 1, but the Heat once again bounced back with an easy win in Game 2 (103-84) and led by as many as 27 points.  Look for history to repeat itself and for Miami to bring their 'A'-game in Game 2 tonight.

10* Play HEAT (+).

This is a rematch of last year's NBA Finals, so we have a large amount of data to work with since these teams played a full 7 games and have identical lineups this season.  Points per possession is a bit higher this season as the offenses have been strong and efficient for both teams, however these are still two veteran lineups that know how to play defense when needed.  This was evident last year in the NBA Finals when both Games 1 & 2 stayed Under the total with just 180 and 187 total points scored.  In fact, five of the seven games last year had 190 total points or less scored in regulation time (Game 6 went to overtime).  The seven games in the NBA Finals last season averaged only 193 total points per game (in regulation time) with a median score of just 190 total points per game.

The posted Over/Under line was only 190 and 189 in Games 1 & 2 last season, but now the oddsmakers have set the line nearly 9 points higher in Game 1 this season.  This is largely because both teams have averaged more points per game, but even when making the adjustment for more efficient scoring this season, my mathematical re-scoring model still favors the Under using the pace of play from last year's NBA Finals.  In fact, my re-scoring model totaled just 183.5 and 180.5 in Games 1 & 2 last year, and when using this year's pace/possession factor, it still would have totaled just 188 and 184.5.  Class-A teams normally play strong defense in Game 1 of a playoff series, and both teams enter with plenty of rest tonight.  Miami has not played since last Friday (5 days rest), while San Antonio played last Saturday (4 days rest).  This should ensure that both defenses are fresh and ready to play tonight, while both offenses might be a bit rusty.

10* Play UNDER (Heat/Spurs).

Game 5 was flying Over the total at halftime and even thru three quarters until both teams put their backups into the game during the fourth quarter and only 38 points total points were scored and the game landed exactly on 206 and was either a Push or Under for most bettors.  The starters on both teams got plenty of rest in the second half on Thursday night, so they should be fresh defensively this evening, but maybe a little sluggish on offense.

The Thunder realize they must play better defense in Game 6 tonight and they are likely to do so.  Oklahoma City has allowed 122, 112, and 117 points on the road, but only 97 and 92 points at home so far in this Western Conference Finals.  The Under is either 2-0-1 or 3-0 (depending on your line) since Serge Ibaka returned in Game 3.  Ibaka provides a substantial defensive presence in the paint and has help cut down on the amount of easy points San Antonio was getting down low in Games 1 & 2.

These are two strong offensive teams, however these are also two Class-A teams that know defense wins championships.  Teams normally increase their defensive intensity in Games 6 & 7 of a playoff series and the pace and tempo often slow down.  The five playoff games have averaged just 204 points per game so far, however this average is a bit misleading as Game 1 had 227 points scored.  Since Game 1, the past four games have averaged just 199 total points per game.  The pace of play has been slower than expected and my re-scoring pace model has averaged only 201 points per game in this playoff series, with a median re-score of just 200 total points per game.

9* Play UNDER (Spurs/Thunder).

Game 5 barely stayed Under the total on Wednesday night, however the only reason it was close was because the Pacers and Heat combined to score 62 points in the 4th quarter.  The teams had combined to score just 75 points in the first half and the game was on pace for just 161 points after three quarters.  Most importantly, the pace of play was once again slow in Game 5 with my mathematical re-scoring pace model totaling just 171.5.  The higher scoring games in this series have been misleading as both teams have shot above their normal (expected) percentages from the field.  This is unlikely to continue, especially considering Indiana is one of the best defensive teams in the league, and considering Miami will have extra focus and defensive intensity tonight after losing Game 5.

My mathematical re-scoring model incorporates pace and expected points per possession and it has totaled just 184, 163.5, 176, 169.5, 171.5 so far in this series for an average re-score of just 173 total points per game.  The four regular season head-to-head meetings this season also had a slow pace of play with my re-scoring model averaging just 182 points per game, which would equate to approximately 179.5 points per game in a playoff setting.  These teams also played seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals last year and the first four games went Over the total, while the final three games stayed Under the total.  It was a very similar situation as my re-scoring model showed a slow pace of play, but the early games went Over because of hot shooting.  This all changed in Game 5 last year which totaled just 169 points with a re-score of 174.5, and then saw Game 6 total just 168 points with a re-score of 173.  Overall, the seven games in last year's Eastern Conference Finals averaged only 176.5 total points per game based on my re-scoring model, with a median re-score of just 174.5.

10* Play UNDER (Pacers/Heat).

Oklahoma City bounced back with two strong performances at home to tie this series up at two games apiece.  The Thunder got a big boost with the unexpected return of Serge Ibaka, and San Antonio simply wasn’t ready for his presence.  Oklahoma City will take to the road for this crucial Game 5, and the Spurs will be better prepared.  The Thunder’s offense was poor in the first two games, but that can be attributed to fatigue as they were playing their fourth and fifth road games over a 12-day span.  Oklahoma City returned home and their offense instantly got better as they scored 211 points in the two games after shooting 47.1% (74-157) from the field.  The Thunder will continue their good offensive rhythm tonight, especially since we expect the Spurs to quicken the pace.

San Antonio’s offense was sure to regress in their last two games after scoring 234 points on 53.8% (91-169) shooting from the field, 45.0% (18-40) shooting from three-point land, and hitting 85.0% (34-40) from the free throw line in the first two games.  The Spurs’ efficiency dropped sharply as they only scored just 189 points in Games 3 and 4 after shooting 39.7% (69-174) from the field and 35.8% (19-53) from three-point land.  With a return home, we expect the Spurs’ offense to snap back with a strong performance tonight.  They’ve scored 104 points or more in each of their last seven home games while averaging 113.7 points per game.  In the last seven meetings between Oklahoma City and San Antonio, the winning team has scored 105 points or more with an average of 110.7 points scored.  Oklahoma City has scored 105 points or more in three of four games in this series, and San Antonio has scored 122 and 112 points in their two home games.  We expect a high-scoring Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals on Thursday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Miami lost Game 1 in Indiana by 11 points (106-97), but since that defeat, the Heat have taken control of the series.  Miami has won the last three games, and it may seem like a foregone conclusion that they will close the series out tonight.  However, there’s reason to believe otherwise.  Indiana is Miami’s toughest match-up, and that has been the case over the last few seasons.  The last game in Miami was heavily influenced by the refs as the Heat took 34 free throw attempts to just 17 attempts for Indiana.  Miami was +15 in points scored from the free throw line in their two home games.  The Heat will not get all the favorable calls tonight with this game on Indiana’s home court.  In the first two games on their court, the Pacers held a 52-33 free throw attempts edge and they were +18 points scored from the free throw line.  Based on the officiating trends of the first four games of this series, Indiana will have a significant edge from the line.  

Indiana’s defense has been the best in the playoffs, and they are particularly stout on their home court.  At home this season, the Pacers allow just 89 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field and 33.9% shooting from three-point land.  In four home games versus Miami this season, the Pacers have held the Heat to just 87.5 points per game.  Indiana went 3-1 SU in those games with their lone loss coming by 4 points in Game 2 of this series.  Indiana has been incredible when playing at home off a SU road loss this season.  The Pacers are 9-2 SU in this situation, including a perfect 2-0 SU against Miami.  Indiana tends to blow teams out in this situation as their average margin of victory is a whopping 16.8 points per game.  We expect Indiana to bounce back with a strong effort tonight, so we’ll take the points in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night. 

10* Play PACERS (+).

Oklahoma City bounced back with a strong performance in Game 3 as expected, and there’s no reason they can’t get a similar outcome tonight.  San Antonio was sure to regress in their last game after scoring 234 points on 53.8% (91-169) shooting from the field, 45.0% (18-40) shooting from three-point land, and hitting 85.0% (34-40) from the free throw line in the first two games.  The Spurs’ efficiency dropped sharply on Sunday night as they scored just 97 points on 39.6% (36-91) shooting from the field.  San Antonio’s offense did not get many open looks inside the paint, and they had to settle for a lot of jump shots.  The reason for that was the unexpected return of Serge Ibaka who was ruled out for the season after injuring his calf.  Ibaka’s defensive presence is a key match-up advantage for the Thunder, and it was obvious that San Antonio was bothered with him on the court. 

In four regular season meetings against Oklahoma City, the Spurs’ offense only averaged 96.8 points per game in those four meetings.  The Thunder play with more confidence at home, and we saw their offense be aggressive in the last game.  Oklahoma City actually shot poorly as they hit just 45.7% (37-81) from the field and 27.3% (6-22) from three-point land.  But they took the ball to the rim and got to the free throw line 31 times in Game 3.  They also out-scored the Spurs 12-3 in fast-break points.  That combination was tough for San Antonio to overcome, and if Oklahoma City shoots a better percentage, the Spurs will be hard-pressed to stay close in this game.  The Thunder are 6-2 SU versus San Antonio over the last eight meetings, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home with their average win coming by 9.8 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Miami and Indiana shot the lights out in Game 3 just as they did in Game 1.  The Heat shot 54.4% (37-68) from the field and 55.6% (10-18) from three-point land while the Pacers shot 47.7% (31-65) from the field.  The teams also combined to shoot 75.6% (34-45) from the free throw line.  Despite 186 total points scored, the pace of play was extremely slow as it only had 86.5 possessions in the game.  That pace was even slower than the four regular season meetings this season when Miami and Indiana averaged just 89.9 possessions per game.  In the playoffs, Miami has been the second slowest team while Indiana has been the tenth slowest of the playoff teams.  My mathematical re-scoring pace model has averaged just 179 in the seven head-to-head meetings this season, with a median re-score of 179.5, however the pace of play has been even slower so far in this playoff series as the past three games have averaged just 174.5 based on my re-score model, with a median re-score of 176.

Indiana has the best defensive team in the playoffs, and the Pacers will play much better tonight after back-to-back poor performances.  Prior to giving up 99 points in Game 3, Indiana had held Miami to just 90.8 points per game in their first six meetings this season.  Miami’s offense has been good over the past two games because of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.  They’ve scored a combined 94 points on 57.8% (37-64) from the field in those past two games.  Miami’s defense has been strong in the playoffs; the 6th best in defensive efficiency.  They were poor in Game 1, and they bounced back in Game 2 when they held Indiana to just 83 points.  Miami’s defense was just okay in Game 3, so they’ll play much better tonight as well.  We expect a low-scoring game between Indiana and Miami in Game 4 on Monday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Miami took a 2-1 series lead on Saturday night when they beat Indiana 99-87.  That game was a tale of two halves as the Pacers out-scored the Heat 42-38 in the first half while the Heat out-scored the Pacers 61-45 in the second half.  Despite the results of the last game, Indiana is still Miami’s toughest match-up; they’ve proven that over the last few seasons.  Miami is 6-4 versus Indiana over the last ten meetings, and four of the last seven meetings have been decided by less than the posted pointspread on tonight’s game.  The Pacers’ defense has been the best in the playoffs, but they played poorly in the last two games.  They allowed Miami to be too efficient from the field as the Heat shot a combined 52.6% (71-135) from the field and 47.4% (18-38) from three-point land.  Indiana’s defense will play much better tonight, and that will keep them competitive.

Miami once again got dominating performances by LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Game 3.  That duo controlled Game 2 as well.  They’ve scored a combined 94 points on 57.8% (37-64) from the field in the last two games.  Miami is only 3-3 ATS over their last six games, and they coved the spread in back-to-back games for the first time since May 6th and May 8th.  Prior to their 12-point win in Game 3, Miami’s three previous wins only came by 6, 2, and 4 points.  Indiana has been incredible when playing off a SU loss in the playoffs.  The Pacers are a strong 5-1 SU in this situation, including a 2-1 SU and ATS mark as an underdog.  Indiana is also 5-2 SU on the road in the playoffs, so they’ll bounce back with a strong effort tonight.  We’ll take the points with Indiana in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Monday night. 

9* Play PACERS (+).

San Antonio is up 2-0 in this series, and the main reason for that is their offense.  The Spurs’ offense has been terrific in the first two games.  They’ve scored 234 points while shooting an incredible 53.8% (91-169) from the field, 45.0% (18-40) from three-point land, and 85.0% (34-40) from the free throw line.  Those numbers are hard to sustain, and with this game coming on the road, we expect San Antonio’s hot shooting to cool way off.  The first two offensive performances by San Antonio versus Oklahoma City were significantly better than anything the Spurs showed in the regular season meetings.  In four regular season meetings against Oklahoma City, the Spurs’ offense never scored more than 105 points.  San Antonio only averaged 96.8 points per game in those four meetings.  The Spurs are ripe for a reversal of form, and with the Thunder in a must win situation, we expect the desperate team to play much better in this game.

Oklahoma City was simply in terrible situations for the first two games of this series.  The Thunder were playing their fourth and fifth games on the road over a 12-day span, and they were also coming off an energy-draining series against the Clippers in which they made big comebacks to win back-to-back games.  Oklahoma City is now in a much better situation as they return home to play on their court for just the second time since May 7th.  The Thunder also have to be embarrassed by their performance in the first two games as they set playoff records for the margins of defeat.  Oklahoma City’s offense was atrocious in Game 2 as they scored a season-low 77 points after shooting 39.3% (35-89) from the field and an ugly 10.0% (2-10) from three-point land.  They also hit just 50.0% from the free throw line while only getting 10 attempts.  Their two top scorers, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, were terrible in combining for only 30 points on 32.5% (13-40) shooting from the field.  Oklahoma City will bring their ‘A’ game tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Thunder in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

The series is tied at one game apiece as the scene shifts to Miami.  The Pacers easily won Game 1, but they couldn’t hold their fourth quarter lead in Game 2 and lost 87-83.  Indiana only lost that game by 4 points despite getting out-shot 50.7% to 40.0% by Miami.  That’s a positive sign for Indiana, and it shows that the Heat have a tough time getting separation from the Pacers.  Indiana is Miami’s toughest match-up, and that has been the case over the last few seasons.  The teams have split the last ten meetings, and four of the last six meetings have been decided by less than the posted pointspread on tonight’s game.  The Pacers’ defense has been the best in the playoffs, but they played poorly in the last game.  They didn’t give up many points, but they allowed Miami to be too efficient from the field.  Indiana has dominated the glass in the first two games; they’ve out-rebounded Miami 79-67, including a 23-10 edge on the offensive glass.

Miami got dominating performances by LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Game 2.  That duo combined to score more than half of Miami’s points (45 of 87) after shooting 55.9% (19-34) from the field.  The Heat will need other contributors tonight, but they don’t get consistent production when playing Indiana.  After opening the playoffs with a 5-1 ATS record, Miami is only 2-3 ATS over their last five games.  The Heat haven’t covered the spread in back-to-back games since May 6th and May 8th with their three wins since then only coming by 6, 2, and 4 point margins.  Indiana has been incredible when playing off a straight-up loss in the playoffs.  The Pacers are a perfect 5-0 SU in this situation, including a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS as an underdog.  Indiana is also 5-1 SU on the road in the playoffs this year, so they should bounce back with a strong effort tonight.  Paul George has been cleared to play and we’ll take the points with Indiana in game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Saturday night.

10* Play PACERS (+).

Oklahoma City and San Antonio played a high-scoring Game 1 on Monday night.  The Thunder and Spurs scored a total of 227 points despite a relatively slow pace.  That game only had 96 possessions, and it’s rare for a game to exceed 200 points in a game with less than 100 possessions.  Oklahoma City shot okay from the field as they hit 46.2% (37-80).  However, they shot 44.4% (12-27) from three-point land and 82.6% (19-23) from the free throw line.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook had good offensive games as they combined for 53 points on 47.5% (19-40) shooting from the field.  Overall, the Thunder’s offense and their best scorers played well, so it’s hard to see them playing much better tonight in Game 2, especially since this will be their fifth road game over their last six games during a 12-day span.

San Antonio’s offense was incredible in Game 1.  The 122 points scored by the Spurs were the most they’ve scored in the playoffs.  San Antonio shot 57.5% (50-87) from the field and 52.9% (9-17) from three-point land.  They also hit 76.5% (13-17) from the free throw line.  San Antonio had eleven different players score, and five of those players scored 14 point or more.  In four regular season games against Oklahoma City, the Spurs’ offense never scored more than 105 points.  San Antonio only averaged 96.8 points per game in those four meetings.  The four games only averaged 202.8 points scored per game, so based on previous history, the 227 points scored in Game 1 was an aberration.  We expect a low-scoring Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals on Wednesday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

We lost with the Under in Game 1, but we have no hesitation in coming right back with the Under in Game 2, especially with the total being a full three points higher.  Miami and Indiana shot the lights out in Game 1.  The Heat shot 51.3% (40-78) from the field while the Pacers shot 51.5% (35-68) from the field and 42.1% (8-19) from three-point land.  The teams also combined to shoot 75.0% (39-52) from the free throw line.  Despite 203 total points scored, the pace of play was extremely slow as it only had 89.4 possessions in the game.  That pace fell right in line with the regular-season games.  In four games overall this season, Miami and Indiana averaged just 89.9 possessions per game.  In the playoffs, Miami has only averaged 88.2 possessions per game.  That’s the second slowest number of the 16 playoff teams.  Indiana has averaged 92.5 possessions per game in the playoffs; the 10th slowest of the 16 playoff teams. 

Miami’s offense has been terrific in the playoffs, and they were good in Game 1.  But Indiana has the best defensive team in the playoffs, and the Pacers will play much better tonight.  In two regular season games in Indiana, the Heat scored just 84 and 83 points.  Indiana’s offense played well above their heads on Sunday afternoon; they scored more than 97 points for just the second time in 14 playoff games.  The Pacers scored 101 points on Atlanta in Game 2, but they followed that up with an 85-point output in Game 3.  Miami’s defense has been strong in the playoffs; the 6th best in defensive efficiency.  They were poor in Game 1, so they’ll bounce back in this game tonight.  The two regular season games on this court only had 174 and 167 points scored, and off the abnormal results in Game 1, there’s a ton of value on the Under in Game 2 tonight.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Oklahoma City has played in back-to-back tough playoff series; they needed 7 games to beat Memphis and 6 games to beat the Los Angeles Clippers.  The Thunder will also play on the road for the fourth time in five games tonight, and it comes over a 10-day span.  Oklahoma City also made big comebacks in their last two games; they trailed by 15 points in Game 5 versus the Clippers and they trailed by 16 points in Game 6.  It will all catch up to the Thunder soon, and we expect tonight to be the night.  Oklahoma City will also play without Serge Ibaka for the rest of the playoffs as he suffered a calf injury in their last game.  His absence is huge because he is a terrific rebounder and a tough match-up for the Spurs.

San Antonio struggled with Dallas in their opening series; they needed 7 games to advance.  But the Spurs turned things on against Portland in their last series as they cruised to a 4-1 series win.  San Antonio won all four of those games by 15 points or more.  The last six wins by the Spurs have all come by more than tonight’s posted pointspread, and they scored 104 points or more in all six of those games.  Game 1 is huge for San Antonio after they lost all four games against Oklahoma City this season.  In fact, the Spurs are just 2-8 SU versus the Thunder in the last ten meetings.  San Antonio needs to win convincingly tonight to prove that they can play with Oklahoma City.  The fact that they are winless versus the Thunder ensures we will get a supreme effort from San Antonio.  The Spurs have no excuse in this game, especially with Oklahoma City missing Ibaka and the poor scheduling and situational spot the Thunder are in.  We’ll lay the points with San Antonio in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Monday night.

10* Play SPURS (-).

Miami has had an easy time in the playoffs so far, and their offense took advantage of a pair of sub-par defensive teams.  The Heat have the most efficient offense in the playoffs thus far, but they are taking a major step-up in defensive class versus Indiana.  The Pacers have the most efficient defensive team in the playoffs, and their stop unit will slow Miami’s offense down.  In two regular season games in Indiana, the Heat scored just 84 and 83 points.  In four games overall this season, Miami and Indiana played four slow-paced games.  They averaged just 89.9 possessions per game, and with the way the two teams have played in the playoffs, we expect another slow-paced game today.  In nine playoff games, Miami has only averaged 88.2 possessions per game.  That’s the second slowest number of the 16 playoff teams.

Indiana has basically survived the playoffs so far.  The Pacers needed 7 games to get by Atlanta, and they needed 6 games to beat Washington.  They are taking a monumental step-up in class versus Miami, but the Pacers match-up extremely well against the Heat, especially on the defensive end of the court.  In 13 playoff games this season, Indiana has averaged 92.5 possessions per game; the 10th slowest of the 16 playoff teams.  The Pacers’ offense has been stagnant in the playoffs against two weak defensive teams.  Indiana will be facing a Miami defense that has been strong in the playoffs; the 6th best in defensive efficiency.  The two regular season games on this court only had 174 and 167 points scored.  We expect a low-scoring Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Heat and Pacers on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play UNDER the total.

Oklahoma City and Los Angeles have played back-to-back Unders after going Over the total in two of the first three games in this series.  The winning team has scored 101 points or more in all five games, and the pace of play has remained fast.  But the oddsmakers have lowered tonight’s total a couple of points simply based on the recent results, and that has created some value on the Over in Game 6 tonight.  In Tuesday night’s 105-104 win by Oklahoma City, both teams shot poorly.  The Clippers hit just 43.2% (38-88) from the field while the Thunder hit just 42.9% (33-77) from the field.  The teams combined for 31 fast break points in that game, and that clearly shows an up-tempo style of basketball.  Oklahoma City and Los Angeles will play at a fast pace once again, and with normal shooting percentages, this game will get up and Over the total.

The Thunder and Clippers have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and that’s not going to change.  They averaged 103 possessions per game in their four regular season meetings, and the first five games of this series were fast.  Over their last five games, Oklahoma City’s offense is averaging 107.8 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field.  Over their last five games, the Clippers have averaged 108 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land.  Both defenses have been poor over their last five games with the Thunder allowing 108 points per game and Los Angeles allowing 107.8 points per game.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect a high-scoring game between the Thunder and Clippers on Thursday night.
 
10* Play OVER the total.

Brooklyn is down 3-1 in this series, but only one of those three losses was a clunker.  The Nets were in a terrible spot for Game 1, and they were never close in a 107-86 blowout loss.  In Game 2, the Nets were only down 2 points in the fourth quarter before losing by 12 points (94-82).  Brooklyn led by as many as 20 points in their 104-90 win in Game 3.  And in Game 4 on Monday night, the Nets led by a point with just over 4 minutes left to play in the game before ultimately losing 102-96.  Brooklyn has proven they can stay competitive with Miami, and the line is simply too high considering how close these teams are.  The Nets’ offense was poor in Game 4 as they shot just 43.6% (34-78) from the field and an ugly 22.7% (5-22) from three-point land.  Despite that awful performance, Brooklyn only lost the game by 6 points.   

Miami’s offense was terrific in the last game as they shot 52.9% (37-70) from the field.  LeBron James took the game over as he scored 49 points on 16 of 24 shooting from the field.  He also got to the free throw line 19 times in the game.  When we combine the poor shooting of Brooklyn and the incredible performance by LeBron James, it’s even more impressive that the Nets had a legitimate chance to win the game late.  Brooklyn went a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS against Miami in the regular season, and the Nets have been close in three of four games in this series.  That means Brooklyn has played Miami close in seven of eight meetings this season, so the Nets hold some tremendous value in this pointspread range.  Brooklyn’s season is on the line, so we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  We’ll take the points with the motivated underdog in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play NETS (+).

Los Angeles looked like a defeated team in the fourth quarter of Game 4 on Sunday afternoon.  The Clippers trailed by 15 points, but they stormed back and won 101-99 after out-scoring Oklahoma City 38-24 over the final 12 minutes of play.  That loss put a charge into Los Angeles while the loss deflated Oklahoma City.  The Clippers have all of the momentum coming into tonight’s crucial Game 5, and since they are getting a handful of points, we see some good value.  Los Angeles’ offense has been poor over the last couple of games, but they are too good to be held down for long.  In Game 4, the Clippers only shot 41.9% (39-93) from the field and an ugly 14.3% (3-21) from three-point land.  They were also bad from the free throw line as they went just 20-29 (69.0%).  Overall, their offense is much better as they average 108.2 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land. 

Oklahoma City has been erratic in the playoffs, and off the heartbreaking loss on Sunday, the Thunder may play with a bit of a hangover tonight.  Oklahoma City’s offense has been stagnant over the last two games as they’ve taken just 75 and 79 shots.  To compare, the Clippers have taken 93 shots in each of the last two games.  Los Angeles has more versatility on offense while the Thunder relies on Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook almost exclusively.  Oklahoma City could not stop Los Angeles inside in Game 4 as the Clippers out-scored the Thunder 52-32 inside the paint.  If that repeats and the Clippers get hot from outside, Oklahoma City has no chance to win this game.  That’s exactly what happened in Game 1 on Oklahoma City’s home court and the Clippers won by 17 points.  We’ll take the points with Los Angeles in Game 5 on Tuesday night.

9* Play CLIPPERS (+).

Miami played their worst defensive game in the playoffs in Game 3, and it cost them as they lost 104-90 to Brooklyn.  Prior to that poor performance, Miami had given up 98 points or less in all six of their playoff games; the Heat allowed an average of 89.3 points per game.  In the first two games against Brooklyn, the Heat allowed just 86 and 82 points.  Miami’s defense will bounce back with a strong effort tonight, especially since it’s highly unlikely that Brooklyn will repeat their shooting from Game 3.  The Nets shot 52.8% (38-72) from the field and an incredible 60.0% (15-25) from three-point land.  Overall this season, Brooklyn’s offense shoots just 45.9% from the field and 36.7% from three-point land.  Game 3 was an aberration, and we expect the Nets’ shooting to revert to normal and for Miami’s defense to play much better.   

The Heat and Nets played four times during the regular season, and all four of those games were played at an extremely slow pace.  They averaged only 88.1 possessions per game.  All three of the games in this series have also been played at a slow pace with the games only averaging 144 shots taken per game.  Brooklyn and Miami play a similar style of basketball, so that’s one of the main reasons why the games are played so slowly.  Over the course of the regular season, Brooklyn played their slowest-paced games against Miami while the Heat played their second slowest-paced games versus the Nets.  We expect a low-scoring game between the Heat and Nets on Monday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Oklahoma City and Los Angeles went Over the total in Game 3, and we cashed a Best Bet selection.  And we’ll come right back with the Over in Game 4 today for all the same reasons.  The pace of all three games has been fast with a total of 509 shots taken by the Thunder and Clippers.  In Friday night’s 118-112 loss, Los Angeles shot poorly as they hit just 45.2% (42-93) from the field and an ugly 26.9% (7-26) from three-point land.  Oklahoma City also shot poorly from beyond the arc as they hit 35.3% (6-17) from three-point land.  The teams combined to take 43 three’s in that game, but they only made 30.2% (13-43) which is well below their season averages.  Oklahoma City and Los Angeles will play at a fast pace once again, and with normal shooting percentages, this game will get up and Over the total.

The Thunder and Clippers have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and that’s not going to change.  They averaged 103 possessions per game in their four regular season meetings, and the first three games of this series were fast.  Over their last five games, Oklahoma City’s offense has been terrific in averaging 111.8 points per game on 52.2% shooting from the field and 38.0% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Clippers have averaged 112 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land.  Both defenses have been poor over their last five games with the Thunder allowing 105.6 points per game and Los Angeles allowing 111.2 points per game.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect another high-scoring game between the Thunder and Clippers on Sunday afternoon.
 
10* Play OVER the total.

Portland played better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, but the Blazers could not overcome San Antonio’s hot shooting.  That has been the case in the first two games so far as the Spurs have shot a combined 52.0% (92-177) from the field and 52.8% (19-36) from three-point land.  San Antonio’s offense has been on a major roll over their last five games as they’ve averaged 113.8 points per game on 51.9% shooting from the field and 47.8% shooting from three-point land.  Those high shooting percentages are simply unsustainable, and we expect San Antonio’s offense to cool way down, especially tonight on the road.  The Spurs’ three road games in their last playoff series versus Dallas were less than dominating as they went just 1-2 SU with their lone win coming by just 4 points after their offense scored just 93 points.  San Antonio is ‘fat and happy’ after their two blowout wins at home, so there’s reason to expect a lesser performance tonight.

The Trail Blazers have been solid at home all season.  Portland is 33-11 on their home court, and since they are down 0-2 in this series, we can expect a strong bounce back effort from a desperate team.  Portland’s offense is strong at home as they average 108 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  In four regular season games versus the Spurs this season, Portland averaged 105.6 points per game; they scored 109 points or more in three of the four games.  The Blazers’ offense is much better than they showed in Games 1 and 2 when they scored a total of 189 points.  In three home playoff games this season, Portland has averaged 112.7 points per game.  In three road playoff games, San Antonio’s defense has given up an average of 103.7 points per game.  Based upon those numbers, Portland’s offense will breakout tonight and that gives them a good shot to get back in this series.  We’ll take the points with Portland in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+).

Brooklyn failed to come thru for us in Game 2, but we have no hesitation in backing the Nets once again in Game 3.  As expected, Brooklyn played much better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, but the fourth quarter did them in as they were out-scored 25-15 and lost the game 94-82.  Brooklyn has been one of the best home teams in 2014, and we expect a desperate Nets team to get back in this series with a solid win tonight.  At home, Brooklyn is 24-5 SU in 2014, including a 104-95 win in overtime versus the Heat.  Miami is quite satisfied with their 2-0 sweep at home, so tonight’s game is a bit of a flat spot for the Heat.  Their hot shooting has to cool off as well after hitting 53.1% (77-145) from the field, 40.4% (19-47) from three-point land, and 82.4% (28-34) from the free throw line in the first two games.

Miami’s two blowout wins have created a misconception that they have the superior team.  The reality of that is not true, especially considering Brooklyn went a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS against Miami in the regular season.  These two teams are much closer than the recent results suggest, and because of that, Brooklyn holds some tremendous value as a home underdog in this game.  The Nets won all four of the regular season meetings with the Heat this season; Brooklyn won three games by a single point and the other win came in overtime.  The close games show that the margin between Brooklyn and Miami is extremely thin, and that means the 21 and 12-point wins by the Heat so far is not a true representation of this matchup.  Brooklyn knows their season is on the line, so we’ll take the points with the motivated and hungry underdog in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play NETS (+).

Oklahoma City and Los Angeles played two high-scoring games to open this series.  Game 1 went Over the total with 227 points scored, but Game 2 stayed Under the total despite 213 points scored.  For some reason, the posted total on tonight’s Game 3 is lower than the last game, and we see a bit of value on the Over.  The pace of both games has been fast with a total of 337 shots taken by the Thunder and Clippers.  On Wednesday night, Los Angeles shot poorly as they hit just 44.6% (37-83) from the field and 33.3% (9-27) from three-point land.  Oklahoma City also shot poorly from beyond the arc as they hit 34.8% (8-23) from three-point land.  The teams combined to take 50 three’s in that game, but they only made 17.  They also combined to miss 11 free throws in the game which prevented the game from going Over the total.  Oklahoma City and Los Angeles will play at a fast pace once again, and with normal shooting averages, this game will get up and Over the total.

The Thunder and Clippers have their most success when playing up-tempo basketball, and that’s not going to change.  They averaged 103 possessions per game in their four regular season meetings, and the first two games of this series were fast.  Over their last five games, Oklahoma City’s offense has been terrific in averaging 108 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Clippers have averaged 112.2 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.  Both defenses have been poor over their last five games with the Thunder allowing 103.2 points per game and Los Angeles allowing 108.2 points per game.  With two strong offenses playing at a fast pace, we expect a high-scoring game between the Thunder and Clippers on Friday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Portland played well below their capabilities in Game 1 on Tuesday night.  The Blazers lost by 24 points (116-92) after shooting just 37.8% (31-82) from the field and 25.0% (4-16) from three-point land.  The poor offensive performance by Portland can be attributed to the three days off they had before that game.  The Blazers are a team that likes to play up-tempo basketball, and rhythm is vital to their success.  Portland’s offense will be much more fluid tonight, and because of that the Blazers will be competitive.  Overall, Portland averages 106.9 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 37.0% shooting from three-point land.  In four regular season games versus the Spurs this season, Portland averaged 105.6 points per game; they scored 109 points or more in three of the four games.  The Blazers’ offense is much better than they played in Game 1, and we expect them to show it tonight.

San Antonio played an impressive Game 1 considering they were coming into that game off a grueling and emotional 7-game series versus Dallas.  The Spurs’ offense shot 50.6% (44-87) from the field and 43.8% (7-16) from three-point land.  San Antonio also hit 84.0% (21-25) from the free-throw line.  The Spurs scored 119 points in their Game 7 win over the Mavericks after shooting an incredible 56.8% (42-74) from the field and 41.7% (10-24) from three-point land.  That’s back-to-back games in which the Spurs’ offense shot the lights out, but we expect that to end tonight.  This is a terrible spot for San Antonio, and there’s reason to expect a flat performance considering their recent results and scheduling situation.  We’ll take the points with Portland in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+).

Brooklyn was in a terrible spot for Game 1 in Miami, and that showed on the court.  The Nets came into that game off a grueling 7-game series versus Toronto, and the Nets had to play on the road in that Game 7.  Brooklyn then had to travel to Miami on one day of rest and face a fresh Heat team that hadn’t played a game in seven days.  Miami was also quite focused for Game 1 as they had lost all four regular season games to Brooklyn.  The Nets were simply up against it on Tuesday night, and the final score showed that.  Miami won by 21 points (107-86) after shooting an incredible 56.8% (42-74) from the field.  The Heat also hit 87.5% (14-16) from the free throw line, so they capitalized on their opportunities.  Now that Brooklyn has settled in, we expect the Nets to give Miami a stiffer challenge in Game 2 tonight.

Miami’s blowout win in Game 1 was aided by the terrible situation for Brooklyn as noted above.  These two teams are much closer than that final score suggests, and because of that, Brooklyn holds some value in this game.  The Nets won all four of the regular season meetings with the Heat this season; Brooklyn won three games by a single point and the other win came in overtime.  The close games show that the margin between Brooklyn and Miami is extremely thin, and that means the 21-point win by the Heat in Game 1 was an aberration.  Brooklyn is also a veteran team that has a lot of playoff experience, so one loss isn’t going to rattle the team.  We expect this game to be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Brooklyn on Thursday night.

9* Play NETS (+).

Los Angeles played an impressive Game 1 on Monday as they beat Oklahoma City 122-105.  The Clippers were coming into that game off a grueling and emotional 7-game series versus Golden State, and they had to travel with only one day of rest between games.  The Clippers’ offense was incredible as they shot 54.9% (45-82) from the field and 51.7% (15-29) from three-point land.  Los Angeles held an advantage from the free throw line as they were handed 30 attempts while Oklahoma City only took 23 free throws.  The Clippers scored 126 points in their Game 7 win over the Warriors after shooting 55.4% (46-83) from the field.  That’s back-to-back games in which the Clippers’ offense shot the lights out, but we expect that to end tonight.  This is a terrible spot for Los Angeles, and there’s reason to expect a flat performance considering their recent results and scheduling situation.

Oklahoma City played okay in Game 1, but they simply could not overcome the hot shooting of Los Angeles.  The Thunder lost for just the tenth time at home this season, and off that loss, we certainly expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  Oklahoma City has a strong offense that averages 105.8 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.  In five games versus the Clippers this season, Oklahoma City is averaging 107.4 points per game; they’ve scored 103 points or more in all five games.  Los Angeles is winning despite playing poor defense.  Over their last five games, the Clippers have given up 109.4 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with the hungry and motivated home favorite in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play THUNDER (-).