Texas Tech has been a major surprise this season as the Red Raiders come into tonight’s game at Oklahoma State with a 16-9 record.  Texas Tech is on a 3-game winning streak, but those three wins set the team up in an awful spot for tonight’s game.  The Red Raiders are in a terrible situational spot because they come in off three consecutive SU wins as underdogs with their last being a 65-63 home win over Oklahoma.  The Red Raiders beat Oklahoma State 63-61 in overtime on their home court earlier this season.  Texas Tech actually trailed that game by 7 points with six minutes left to play before rallying back and winning in overtime.  Texas Tech’s defense is giving up 75.6 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 41.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Oklahoma State returns home off a 27-point blowout loss at Kansas on Monday night.  That game can be easily dismissed as Kansas was focused on revenge after getting embarrassed 86-67 by Oklahoma State earlier in the season.  Oklahoma State is now back at home, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  The Cowboys play outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 62.1 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma State’s offense has been much better at home where they are averaging 70.6 points per game.  Oklahoma State is catching Texas Tech at the perfect time, so we’ll back the Cowboys in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (-).

Detroit and Washington played back in mid-November with the Wizards winning 97-95 on the Pistons’ home court.  That game was close throughout, and tonight’s game should play out the same way.  Detroit went into the All-Star break in poor current form as they lost three consecutive games, and they were just 6-11 over their final 17 games of the first half of the season.  The All-Star break came at the perfect time for the Pistons, and the eight days off allowed them to regroup for a second half push.  Detroit also got rid of Brandon Jennings at the trade deadline while acquiring Tobias Harris; those moves instantly improved the team.  The Pistons are the only team currently out of the playoffs that own more road wins than home losses on the season.  That is a predictive measure that correlates directly to playoff teams in the NBA, so the Pistons are an undervalued commodity right now. 

Washington was also struggling heading into the All-Star break as the Wizards were just 4-9 in their final 13 games of the first half.  Washington played at home last night, and the Wizards beat the Jazz 103-89.  Washington shot 48.8% (42-86) from the field and 38.9% (7-18) from three-point land, so they were certainly ready off the long rest.  However, three guys played 34 minutes or more with five guys playing 29 minutes or more.  Washington also had three players off their bench play 21 minutes or more.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since the Wizards haven’t played back-to-back games since February 5th and 6th, and they’ll be doing so after having eight days off.  Overall, Washington is just 12-16 at home where they own a -1.6 point differential on the season.  We’ll take Detroit plus the points in this game on Friday night.

10* Play PISTONS (+).

California comes into tonight’s game at Washington with a 17-8 record, but 16 of those wins have come on their home court.  The Golden Bears are just 1-6 in true road games this season, including 0-5 in conference road games.  California’s defense is allowing 71.4 points per game on the road this season.  But their recent conference road opponents haven’t been able to take full advantage of that poor defense because those teams wanted to play slow, half-court basketball.  That won’t be the case tonight against Washington who prefers to play a fast, up-tempo style of basketball.  California will not keep Washington’s offense below 70 points in this game, especially with the game being on the Huskies’ home court.

Washington is just 2-4 over their last six games, but four of those games came on the road.  The Huskies return home off back-to-back road losses, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Washington is averaging 88.2 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field at home this season.  The Huskies will get their preferred fast pace against a poor California defense, so we expect a strong offensive performance in tonight’s game.  Washington’s defense is only allowing 40.3% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a big performance by Washington here, so we’ll back the Huskies in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play WASHINGTON (+).

Wisconsin has been a major surprise this season as the Badgers come into tonight’s game at Michigan State with a 16-9 record.  Wisconsin was supposed to be in a rebuilding season after making the Final Four last season, and head coach Bo Ryan retiring, but the team has caught many of their opponents off guard.  Wisconsin is on a 7-game winning streak, but five of those opponents were bad teams.  The Badgers are in a terrible situational spot for tonight’s game as they come in off a 70-57 win at Maryland as 8.5-point underdogs on Saturday night.  Wisconsin shot 46.2% (12-26) from three-point land, but it’s highly unlikely they’ll repeat that performance in this game.  The Badgers beat Michigan State 77-76 earlier this season, but the difference in that game was Wisconsin being +17 points at the free throw line and +20 attempts.  Despite those big edges, the Badgers trailed by 4 points with less than a minute to play before getting a fortunate 1-point win on their home court.

Michigan State is 21-5 on the season, including an 11-2 mark at home where they own an excellent +20.1 point differential.  The Spartans play outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 57.8 points per game on 35% shooting from the field and 27.8% shooting from three-point land.  Michigan State’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 77.9 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  Michigan State is playing with legitimate revenge, so they will bring their best effort, and since they are catching Maryland in a terrible spot, we’ll lay the points with the Spartans in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

NC Wilmington comes into tonight’s game at William & Mary with a 20-5 record.  The Seahawks have been dominant at home, but that wasn’t the case when they hosted William & Mary last month.  NC Wilmington needed overtime to beat the Tribe 97-94; William & Mary played that game without their second leading scorer, Daniel Dixon, who averages 13.5 points per game.  NC Wilmington shot 54.1% (33-61) from the field and 48.1% (13-27) from three-point land in that game, and they only won by 3 points in overtime on their home court.  That’s not a good sign for the rematch tonight, especially since the Seahawks have to play this game on the road where their defense is giving up 74.2 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field and 33.9% shooting from three-point land.

William & Mary returns home off a 99-82 blowout loss at Towson on Saturday afternoon.  The Tribe also lost their previous home game, so we expect a peak performance in this game.  William & Mary is 11-2 at home where they own a solid +9.1 point differential on the season.  The Tribe’s defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to 40.5% shooting from the field and 28.8% shooting from three-point land.  William & Mary’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 78.1 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land.  William & Mary is in a terrific spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Tribe in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play WILLIAM & MARY (-).

Colorado comes into tonight’s game at USC with a 19-7 record, but 14 of those wins have come on their home court.  Colorado is just 4-4 in true road games with those four losses coming by an average of 12.5 points per game.  Three of their four losses have come by double digits, so the Buffaloes have not been a competitive bunch in their away games.  Colorado is in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Buffaloes come in off three consecutive close games; they lost by 4 points to Oregon State, they beat Washington State in overtime, and they beat Washington by a single point.  Now they must hit the road where their defense is giving up 74.5 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from the field. 

USC returns home off back-to-back road losses at Arizona State and at Arizona.  The Trojans are a perfect 14-0 at home where they own an excellent +17.7 point differential on the season.  USC’s defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to just 38.3% shooting from the field and 28% shooting from three-point land.  The Trojans’ offense has been outstanding at home where they are averaging 87.1 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land.  USC is in a terrific spot for a big bounce win, so we’ll lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Syracuse is 8-1 over their last nine games, but the Orange have played an extremely easy schedule over that span.  Syracuse’s wins have come against the likes of Wake Forest twice, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Georgia Tech.  They were supposed to win those games because they are superior to those opponents.  However, the Orange only beat Georgia Tech by 3 points, and they needed overtime to beat Virginia Tech.  Both of those games came on their home court, so the close results are unimpressive.  Syracuse will now play a back-to-back road set while taking a monumental step-up in class.  The Orange offense has struggled away from home all season; Syracuse is only averaging 67.3 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 38.8% shooting from three-point land on the road.

Louisville returns home off back-to-back road losses at Duke and at Notre Dame.  The Cardinals were competitive in both of those defeats as they only lost by 7 and 5 points.  Off those losses, we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since Louisville is 15-1 at home where they own an exceptional +25.8 point differential on the season.  The Cardinals’ defense has been excellent at home as they are holding opponents to just 55.1 points per game on 35.8% shooting from the field and 26.6% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 80.9 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville is in a good spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play LOUISVILLE (-).

Mississippi is 3-1 over their last four games, but they are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at Texas A&M.  The Rebels come in off five consecutive big games with their last culminating in a 76-60 home win over Arkansas.  Prior to that game, Mississippi played three of four games on the road.  The Rebels lost by 5 points at Kansas State, won by 3 points at Missouri, and lost by 5 points at Florida.  Mississippi beat Vanderbilt as 2.5-point home underdogs in between those road games.  Now the Rebels must go back on the road and play their fourth road game over their last six games.  Mississippi’s defense has been poor on the road all season as they are giving up 73.6 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land.

Texas A&M returns home off back-to-back road losses at LSU and at Alabama.  The Aggies have played three of their last four games on the road, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance in this game.  Texas A&M is 13-1 at home where they own an excellent +18.1 point differential on the season.  The Aggies’ defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to just 63.3 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land.  Texas A&M’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 81.4 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land.  Texas A&M is in a terrific spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Aggies in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play TEXAS A&M (-).

Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Wisconsin-Green Bay will play for the second time this season.  In the first meeting, the Panthers won 95-94 on their home court.  The difference in that game was Wisconsin-Milwaukee’s edge at the free throw line where they were +12 points (23-11) and +15 attempts (33-18).  The Panthers won’t get a favorable whistle in tonight’s game, especially since they’ll be playing on Wisconsin-Green Bay’s strong home court.  Wisconsin-Milwaukee is also in a tough scheduling spot for tonight’s game as they will be playing their fifth consecutive road game over a 12-day span.  The Panthers have gone just 1-3 over their last four games with their defense allowing 75, 80, and 84 points in those games.

Wisconsin-Green Bay finally returns home after playing a grueling 5-game road trip over a two-week span.  In fact, the Phoenix have played ten of their last twelve games away from home.  Wisconsin-Green Bay is 7-2 on their home court this season where their offense has been incredible.  The Phoenix are averaging 85.7 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.  Wisconsin-Green Bay will be facing a Wisconsin-Milwaukee defense that is in terrible current form.  The Panthers’ defense has allowed 83.6 points per game on 50.8% shooting from the field and 43.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This is a good spot for Wisconsin-Green Bay to get a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with Phoenix in this game on Monday night.

10* Play WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (-).

USC has shocked the Pac 12 so far this season.  The Trojans come into tonight’s game at Arizona with an 18-6 record, including a 7-4 mark in conference play.  USC was picked to finish tenth in the Pac 12 over the summer because the team is loaded with youth and inexperience.  But the Trojans have overachieved thus far, and tonight’s game against a revenge-minded Arizona team will be an extremely difficult challenge.  USC will be playing on a back-to-back road set for the fifth time this season; they lost the second game of back-to-backs their four previous times.  And those games came against much lesser competition like Monmouth-NJ, Washington, and Oregon State.  The Trojans have lost their last three road games by an average of 10 points per game, and Arizona is a better team than all three of the opponents they played.  USC’s defense is allowing 78.6 points per game on the road this season.  

Arizona is on a 4-game winning streak after going just 3-4 over their previous seven games.  One of those losses came at USC when the Trojans won 103-101 in overtime.  That was a terrible spot for the Wildcats as they were playing their third straight road game while coming off a close loss at UCLA.  Despite the poor spot, Arizona only lost by 2 points on USC’s home court.  The difference in that game came at the free throw line where USC was +15 points (26-11) and +17 attempts (33-16).  The Trojans won’t get a favorable whistle in tonight’s game, especially since they’ll be playing on Arizona’s strong home court.  The Wildcats are 13-1 at home where they own an incredible +20 point differential this season.  Arizona is averaging 83.9 points per game on 51.2% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land.  The Wildcats’ defense is holding opponents to just 63.9 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Arizona in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play ARIZONA (-).

Colorado State comes into tonight’s game at UNLV with a 14-10 record, but ten of those wins have come on their home court.  The Rams are 3-4 in true road games this season, but they’ve been fortunate while facing teams that play their style of basketball.  Colorado State’s defense is allowing 78.6 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field on the road this season.  But their recent conference road opponents haven’t been able to take full advantage of that poor defense because those teams wanted to play slow, half-court basketball.  That won’t be the case tonight against UNLV.  Colorado State beat UNLV 66-65 on their home court earlier this season, but that’s unimpressive considering the Rebels have won just one game all season when held to less than 70 points.  The Rams will not keep UNLV’s offense below 70 points in this game, especially with the game being on the Rebels’ home court.

UNLV snapped their 3-game losing streak with a 64-61 home win over San Jose State on Wednesday night.  The Rebels won that game despite facing a slow pace and terrible shooting.  UNLV hit just 29.4% (20-68) from the field and 20% (4-20) from three-point land.  The Rebels’ offense is too good to play that bad again, especially at home.  UNLV is averaging 77.5 points per game at home this season.  The Rebels will get their preferred fast pace against a poor Colorado State defense, so we expect a much better offensive performance in tonight’s game.  UNLV’s defense is only allowing 67.6 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a peak performance by UNLV here, so we’ll lay the points with the Rebels in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play UNLV (-).

Gonzaga is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at SMU with a 20-5 record.  The Zags have been blowing teams out as of late, but tonight’s game against the Mustangs will be their toughest game since playing Arizona way back in early December.  Gonzaga is simply in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game at SMU.  The Zags are playing a meaningless out-of-conference road game in the middle of their West Coast schedule against a very good team that is looking to avenge their 16-point loss at Gonzaga last season.  The Zags are also playing their fourth consecutive road game, and they are doing so over a 10-day span.  Gonzaga is also playing their sixth road game over their last eight games overall, and with tonight’s result being inconsequential to their season, it’s hard to imagine the Zags being at their best for this game.

SMU is having a tremendous season as they come into this game with a 20-3 record.  The Mustangs are 12-1 at home where they own an excellent +18.6 point differential.  SMU lost their last home game 82-77 to Tulsa on Wednesday night.  That was the Mustangs’ worst defensive home performance of the season, and their second worst overall.  SMU plays outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 62.7 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  SMU’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 81.3 points per game on 50.9% shooting from the field and 41.5% shooting from three-point land.  SMU is banned from post-season play, so this is like a tournament game for them.  The Mustangs will bring their best effort, and since they are catching Gonzaga in a terrible spot, we’ll lay the points with SMU in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play SMU (-).

Texas has been a major surprise this season as the Longhorns come into tonight’s game at Iowa State with a 16-8 record.  The most surprising part of their record is the fact that Texas has been without their best player, Cameron Ridley, since mid-December with a foot injury.  The Longhorns were supposed to be in a rebuilding season under new head coach Shaka Smart, but the team has caught many of their opponents off guard.  Texas is 7-2 over their last nine games, but they are in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Longhorns come in off a last second 63-60 loss at Oklahoma on Monday night after blowing a 9-point halftime lead.  Now they must play back-to-back conference road games for just the second time this season; they lost 76-67 the last time they were in this situation.  Texas needed overtime on their home court to beat Iowa State 94-91 earlier this season despite shooting 48.6% (36-74) from the field and being +21 points from three-point land. 

Iowa State returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being an 85-82 overtime loss at Texas Tech.  The Cyclones have played three of their last four games on the road, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance in this game.  Iowa State is 10-2 at home where they own an excellent +12.7 point differential on the season.  The Cyclones’ defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to 42.5% shooting from the field and 34.9% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 85.8 points per game on 49.9% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State is in a terrific spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Cyclones in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play IOWA STATE (-).

Oregon is one of the hottest teams in college basketball as the Ducks are 13-2 over their last 15 games.  Overall, Oregon comes into tonight’s game at California with a 20-4 record on the season, but fifteen of those wins have come on their home court.  Oregon is just 3-3 in true road games, and they only own a +4.0 point differential away from home this season.  Oregon’s defense has been poor on the road, and they’ve allowed 70 points or more in four of their five conference away games.  Overall, the Ducks are giving up 73.8 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land.  Oregon beat California by just 3 points (68-65) earlier this season, but the Ducks hit 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land while the Golden Bears missed all 12 of their 3-point attempts.  Oregon was +21 points from beyond the arc, but they only won the game by 3 points on their home court.    

California is a perfect 14-0 at home this season.  The Golden Bears own a +15.8 point differential on their home court this season.  California’s offense is averaging 77.8 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 36.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Golden Bears’ defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 62 points per game on 36.4% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land.  California held Oregon to their lowest scoring output (68 points) in their last ten games; the Ducks shot just 40.7% (24-59) from the field on their home court.  This is a much bigger game for California, so we’ll back the Golden Bears in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CALIFORNIA (pick).

Golden State is obviously having a historical season as they come into tonight’s game in Phoenix with a 47-4 record.  The Warriors are a tough team to go against, but tonight presents a terrific opportunity to take a boatload of points in a game Golden State figures to go thru the motions.  Golden State hosted Houston last night in a nationally televised game.  The Warriors didn’t play their best basketball, but they rallied and out-scored the Rockets 30-17 in the fourth quarter to win the game by 13 points.  Five players logged 31 minutes or more, and another guy played over 28 minutes.  The Warriors used up a lot of energy last night, and now they have to hit the road and play the lowly Suns.  This is simply a game that Golden State will have little interest in, especially with their All-Star break beginning after tonight.   

Phoenix is having a miserable season, but they are in a terrific spot for tonight’s game against the Warriors.  The Suns will be playing their fifth consecutive home game, and they come in with a full day of rest.  Phoenix has lost their previous four home games, so this is a game they will bring their best effort, especially since they are playing Golden State.  The Suns have lost 17 games at home this season, but they would be 15-2 ATS in those games based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  Golden State hasn’t played with much defensive intensity recently; the Warriors have allowed 107.8 points per game over their last five games.  Golden State is simply in a poor spot, so we’ll take Phoenix plus the points in this game on Wednesday night. 

9* Play SUNS (+).

Missouri State comes into this game with a 10-14 record, but the majority of the Bears’ wins have come against mediocre competition.  Missouri State’s last two road games have been awful; they lost those games by a combined 28 points.  The Bears shot just 34.1% (43-126) from the field in those games, including 25% (7-28) from three-point land.  Missouri State’s offense has struggled away from home all season long.  The Bears are only averaging 61.6 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from the field.  Missouri State’s offensive struggles will continue tonight, especially since Northern Iowa’s defense is in excellent current form.     

Northern Iowa returns home off a dominating 16-point road win at Drake on Saturday.  That was the Panthers’ fourth consecutive win after losing their previous four games.  Northern Iowa’s recent uptick has head coach Ben Jacobsen feeling good about his team: “Guys are playing with some confidence again. We’ve just got a little different bounce in our step on offense, and we’ve got a different determination to us defensively. Right now, this is as close as we’ve been to having the entire group playing at a high level.”  Northern Iowa’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are only giving up 60.6 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Panthers on Wednesday night.   

10* Play NORTHERN IOWA (-).

Arkansas comes into tonight’s game at Mississippi State with just a 12-11 record.  The Razorbacks have won eleven of those games on their home court; they are just 1-6 in true road games this season.  Arkansas is in a terrible situational spot for this game as they are off five consecutive big games.  The Razorbacks lost by 3 points in overtime at Georgia, and then they beat Texas A&M by 3 points at home.  After that, Arkansas beat Texas Tech at home in overtime, and then they lost by 4 points at Florida.  But everything came together in their last game which resulted in an 85-67 home win over Tennessee after shooting 52.6% (30-57) from the field and 40.9% (9-22) from three-point land.  Now they must hit the road where they’ve struggled all season, especially on defense.  The Razorbacks are giving up 80.7 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land away from home this season.

Mississippi State returns home off a road loss at LSU on Saturday.  The Bulldogs also lost their previous home game in overtime, so we expect a strong performance here.  Mississippi State has played three of their last four games on the road, and six of their last nine games on the road.  A welcomed home game is much needed for the Bulldogs, and there’s a lot of motivation after losing 82-68 at Arkansas earlier this season.  In that game, the Razorbacks shot the lights out as they hit 50% (28-56) from the field and 66.7% (16-24) from three-point land.  That performance will not be repeated in this game as Mississippi State’s defense is giving up 69.5 points per game on 40.7% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We’ll back Mississippi State in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (+).

Notre Dame is 16-7 on the season, but twelve of those wins have come on their home court.  The Irish come into this game off their biggest win of the season, an 80-76 win over North Carolina as 2.5-point home underdogs on Saturday.  Notre Dame shot the ball terribly in that game as they only hit 34.8% (23-66) from the field and 18.8% (3-16) from three-point land.  The Irish won that game at the free throw line where they were +15 points (31-16) on +17 attempts (38-21).  Notre Dame only won that game because of a favorable whistle, but with tonight’s game on the road, the Irish cannot rely on the power of their home court.  Notre Dame is just 3-3 in true road games with their average loss coming by 11.7 points per game.  When held to less than 70 points on the road, Notre Dame is just 1-3 with their losses coming by 2 points at Monmouth, 11 points at Virginia, and 15 points at Syracuse.    

Clemson returns home off three consecutive road games where they went just 1-2.  The Tigers have played four of their last five games on the road; their last home game came back on January 27th.  Overall, Clemson is 11-2 at home where they own a +14.2 point differential this season.  The Tigers’ defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 56.2 points per game on 37.5% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land.  Notre Dame’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 76.8 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 38.6% shooting from three-point land.  With Notre Dame off their big win and facing the slow, half-court style of Clemson, this is a poor situational spot for the Irish.  We’ll lay the points with Clemson in this game on Monday night.

10* Play CLEMSON (-).

Los Angeles has played two games of their current 4-game East Coast road trip.  The Clippers just played a 5-game East Coast road trip over a 7-day span prior to playing three home games before this current trip.  Los Angeles is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Philadelphia, especially since they’ve won their first two games of this trip.  The Clippers won 100-93 in Miami on Sunday afternoon, but four guys played 32 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 34 minutes or more.  Prior to that game, the Clippers won in Orlando after shooting 54.1% (40-74) from the field.  Now Los Angeles will play the lowly 76ers who they pounded by 31 points (130-99) earlier this season.  The Clippers will have little focus on this game, especially with a trip back to Boston for Doc Rivers and Paul Pierce looming on Wednesday night.

Philadelphia is having a miserable season, but they are in a terrific spot for tonight’s game against the Clippers.  The 76ers won their last game at home, so they’ll ride some momentum into this game.  Philadelphia’s offense has been good in their recent home games, and in fact, they are averaging 101.8 points per game in their last four home games.  Los Angeles is allowing 100.5 points per game on 44.2% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Los Angeles is also playing a back-to-back road game for the eighth time this season; they are just 4-3 SU in those games, and a woeful 1-6 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Los Angeles is simply in a poor spot, so we’ll take Philadelphia plus the points in this game on Monday night. 

9* Play 76ERS (+).

Gonzaga is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Pepperdine with an 18-5 record.  The Zags have been blowing teams out as of late, but tonight’s game against the Waves will be a huge challenge for Gonzaga.  The Zags will be playing a back-to-back road set with this also being their fourth road game over their last six games overall.  Aside from their 29-point waxing of a terrible Loyola Marymount team on Thursday night, Gonzaga’s road games have been close.  The Zags won by 2 points at Santa Clara, they needed overtime to win at San Francisco, they lost at St. Mary’s, and they only won by 10 points at a poor Pacific team.  Overall, Gonzaga’s defense is giving up 70.8 points per game on the road this season.

Pepperdine comes into this game with a 14-9 record, including a terrific 9-1 record on their home court.  The Waves are off back-to-back losses with their last being a 73-70 home loss to Portland on Thursday night.  Pepperdine’s offense was awful in that game as they only shot 37.3% (25-67) from the field, 18.8% (3-16) from three-point land, and 45.9% (17-37) from three-point land.  That was their worst offensive performance at home this season.  Overall, Pepperdine’s offense is averaging 73.1 points per game on 45.4% shooting at home.  The Waves’ defense is only allowing 66.4 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 27.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a peak performance by Pepperdine here, so we’ll take the Waves plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play PEPPERDINE (+).

Chicago played last night in Denver, and the Bulls blew an 18-point lead in the second half to lose 115-110.  Chicago got out-scored 42-21 in the fourth quarter, and they allowed the Nuggets to make their second biggest comeback in the second half in team history.  The Bulls not only lost the game on the court, but they also lost their best player, Jimmy Butler, to a knee injury.  Butler will miss tonight’s game according to reports.  This is a terrible scheduling and situational spot for Chicago.  The Bulls are playing on a back-to-back road set with this also being their sixth consecutive road game over a 10-day span.  Chicago will also be playing their fifth game in seven nights, and after the way they lost last night in Denver, it’s highly unlikely the Bulls will come with their best effort here.

Minnesota returns home off a 4-game road trip with their last being an impressive 108-102 win in Los Angeles against the Clippers.  The Timberwolves have been home since Thursday, so they’ve had two full days off to rest and prepare for tonight’s game.  Over their last five games, Minnesota’s offense has been in terrific current form.  The Timberwolves have averaged 105.8 points per game on 51% shooting from the field in those games.  Chicago’s defense has been poor recently as they’ve allowed 106.6 on 45.7% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Minnesota is catching Chicago at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Timberwolves in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Florida has been a surprise this season as they come into today’s game at Kentucky with a 15-7 record.  The Gators weren’t expected to be much after losing a lot of talent and head coach Billy Donovan to the NBA.  They’ve caught many opponents off guard, but after their last few games, Florida has come out from under the radar.  Florida is in a terrible situational spot for this game as they are off three consecutive big games.  The Gators lost by a single point at Vanderbilt as 4.5-point underdogs, then they waxed West Virginia by 17 points as 1-point home underdogs, and then they beat Arkansas at home by 4 points as 7.5-point favorites.  Now they must hit the road where they are just 2-5 in true road games this season.  Florida’s offense is only averaging 63.1 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Kentucky returns home off back-to-back road losses at Kansas and at Tennessee.  The Wildcats lost to the Jayhawks in overtime, and they blew a 21-point lead against the Volunteers.  Off those losses, we expect a strong performance here, especially since Kentucky is a perfect 12-0 on their home court where they own an incredible +17.4 point differential.  Kentucky’s offense is averaging 80.2 points per game on 50.3% shooting from the field at home this season.  The Wildcats’ defense is only giving up 62.8 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 28.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Kentucky is in a prime spot for a big blowout win, so we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play KENTUCKY (-).

Los Angeles’ 4-game winning streak was snapped on Wednesday night when they lost at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The Clippers just completed a 3-game home stand after playing a 5-game East Coast road trip where they went 3-2 over a 7-day span.  Now the Clippers must hit the road again tonight, and it will begin another 4-game East Coast road trip.  This is a terrible scheduling spot for the Clippers, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll come with their best effort in this game.  Two of Los Angeles’ three recent road wins have come by just 2 points apiece.  Overall, the Clippers have allowed 101.1 points per game on 44.5% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Orlando is just 2-14 over their last 16 games played, but the Magic have been a competitive team recently.  The Magic were routinely losing games by 15 to 20 points at the beginning of their downswing, but over their last few games, Orlando has lost close games; five of their last seven losses have come by single digits.  The Magic are playing with a lot of confidence right now despite losing games, and that makes them a dangerous underdog.  Orlando has played five of their last six games on the road; their lone recent home game resulted in a 119-114 win over Boston last Sunday night.  Overall, Orlando is 13-10 at home where they are averaging 101.9 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land.  Orlando is catching Los Angeles at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Friday night. 

10* Play MAGIC (+).

Utah was mired in a 1-3 slump going into their earlier home meeting against Oregon State.  The Utes won that game 59-53 and they haven’t lost since, going a perfect 5-0 over their last five games.  Utah needed a big comeback in that game as they trailed Oregon State by 14 points on their home court.  The game was also tied at 52 apiece with just three minutes left to play before Utah ended the game on a 7-1 scoring run.  Utah will now face Oregon State on the road where they are just 3-3 in true road games this season with one win coming by 5 points in overtime and another win coming by just 2 points.  Utah’s offense is only averaging 67.3 points per game on 44.2% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Oregon State returns home off back-to-back road losses at Arizona and at Arizona State.  Off those two losses, we expect a strong performance here, especially since Oregon State is 8-3 on their home court this season; two of their home losses have come by just 6 points apiece.  Oregon State’s offense is averaging 75.4 points per game on 45% shooting from the field at home this season.  The Beavers’ defense is only giving up 68.7 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 30.2% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We’ll back Oregon State in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Maryland is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Nebraska with a 19-3 record.  The Terrapins have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Cornhuskers is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Maryland.  The Terrapins will be playing a back-to-back road set with this also being their third road game over their last four games overall.  Maryland hasn’t been as dominant in true road games either where they are just 3-3 this season; they won by 5 points at Oklahoma State, and they only won by 3 points at Wisconsin.  Overall, the Terrapins’ defense is giving up 68.8 points per game on the road this season.

Nebraska comes into this game with a 12-10 record.  The Cornhuskers have played three of their last four games on the road with their last being a loss at Purdue.  Nebraska also lost their previous home game, so we expect a peak performance in this game, especially since they gave Maryland fits in both games last season.  Maryland only beat Nebraska by 4 points on their home court, and by just 3 points on Nebraska’s home court.  The Cornhuskers’ offense is averaging 75.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Nebraska’s defense is only allowing 65.1 points per game on 42.4% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a peak performance by Nebraska here, so we’ll take the Cornhuskers plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play NEBRASKA (+).

Orlando is just 2-13 over their last 15 games played, but the Magic have been a competitive team recently.  The Magic were routinely losing games by 15 to 20 points at the beginning of their downswing, but over their last few games, Orlando has lost close games; four of their last six losses have come by single digits.  The Magic got their confidence back with an important home win over the Celtics two games back.  Orlando’s loss in San Antonio can easily be forgiven as the Spurs went into that game off an embarrassing effort against Cleveland.  Now the Magic will play in Oklahoma City against a team they match-up with extremely well.  Orlando is 6-1 ATS versus the Thunder in their last seven meetings, including a 139-136 defeat earlier this season.  The Magic led that game by 16 points in the fourth quarter before the Thunder forced overtime.       

Oklahoma City comes into this game from the opposite end of the spectrum.  The Thunder have won four straight games, and they are 11-1 over their last 12 games overall.  However, Oklahoma City has not won many of those games by big margins.  In fact, five of their last seven wins have come by single digits.  Oklahoma City’s defense comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Thunder have allowed 113.4 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Orlando’s offense has averaged 101.4 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Orlando matches-up well with Oklahoma City, so we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Wednesday night. 

9* Play MAGIC (+).

South Carolina has an impressive 19-2 on the season, but twelve of those wins have come on their home court.  The Gamecocks are just 3-2 in true road games this season with one win coming by 6 points and another win coming by just 3 points in overtime.  Overall, South Carolina has played the #116th rated schedule this season, so the majority of their wins have come against inferior opponents.  To compare, Georgia has played the #41st rated schedule this season.  South Carolina’s defense is giving up 70.6 points per game on 38.4% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  In their last three road games, the Gamecocks have allowed 73 points or more while going 1-2 with their lone win coming in overtime.  

Georgia returns home off back-to-back road losses at LSU and at Baylor.  The Bulldogs were competitive in both games as they only lost by 4 points to the Tigers and by 10 points to the Bears.  Off those losses, we expect a strong performance here, especially since Georgia is 10-3 on their home court this season; two of their home losses have come by just 2 points apiece.  Georgia’s offense is averaging 71.7 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Bulldogs’ defense is only giving up 66.4 points per game on 37.5% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We’ll back Georgia in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play GEORGIA (+).

Toronto comes into this game on an 11-game winning streak, but the Raptors have played a ridiculously easy schedule during that span.  Toronto played just one Western Conference team in those eleven games, and they also played their last seven games at home.  The Raptors will now hit the road for the first time since January 14th, and they will play their first road game outside of the eastern time zone since December.  Toronto was deep into a set routine from being at home for so long, but now that has been disrupted, so they are in a bad situational spot for tonight’s game in Denver, especially since they will be playing in the thin air and altitude.  The Raptors only own a +2.5-point differential on the road this season; they own a +4.9-point differential overall.  Toronto is only 13-9 on the road compared to 18-6 at home, so a road game after a string of home games makes this a bad scheduling spot for the Raptors.

Denver returns home off three consecutive road games with their last being a 109-105 overtime loss at Indiana.  The Nuggets also lost their previous home game, so we expect a peak performance in this game tonight.  Denver’s offense comes into this game in terrific current form as they’ve averaged 106.8 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field over their last five games.  The Nuggets are 4-4 in their last eight home games, but three of their four losses only came by 1, 3, and 6 points.  Denver has been an ultra competitive team this season, especially when playing playoff-bound teams.  The Nuggets won 106-105 in Toronto back in December, and we expect another close game throughout.  We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Monday night.

10* Play NUGGETS (+).

Boston and Orlando just played on Friday night with the Celtics winning 113-94 on their home court.  That game was much different than the first meeting of the season in Orlando when the Magic won 110-91 after shooting 48.4% (45-93) from the field while out-scoring the Celtics 52-38 inside the paint.  Orlando also had a 54-34 rebounding edge in that game, including 17-9 on the offensive glass.  The game on Friday night was close for the first three quarters before Boston out-scored Orlando 27-17 over the final 12 minutes of the game.  Boston’s bench played well above their level in that game as the second unit combined to score 60 points on 65.6% (21-32) shooting from the field, including 70% (7-10) from three-point range.  It’s highly unlikely Boston’s bench will repeat that performance in tonight’s game, especially with this game coming on the road against the same opponent.      

Orlando has been struggling as of late, but the Magic desperately need to win this game tonight in order to keep pace with Boston for a playoff spot.  Going into Friday’s game, the Magic were treating the 2-game set against the Celtics like playoff games.  “These games, direct where you can pick up a game on a team in front of you, are critical,” said Orlando head coach Scott Skiles.  Orlando came with a poor defensive performance on Friday night, but the Magic are capable of shutting the Celtics down just as they did in the first meeting.  Orlando held Boston to just 40.9% (36-88) shooting from the field and 18.5% (5-27) shooting from three-point land while winning by 19 points on their home court.  This is an ultra-important game for Orlando, and with quick turnaround revenge, we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Sunday night. 

10* Play MAGIC (+).

San Diego State is one of the hottest teams in the country right now.  The Aztecs have won 8 consecutive games, including four games on the road.  San Diego State plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Aztecs play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with a solid defense that is holding opponents to just 60.2 points per game on 36% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land this season.  San Diego State is 6-0 against UNLV in the last six meetings, and that’s because the Rebels are clueless when they are forced to play half-court basketball.

UNLV fired head coach Dave Rice six games ago, and Todd Simon is the current interim coach.  Since Simon took over, the Rebels have gone 5-1 with their lone loss being a 65-63 defeat at Nevada.  UNLV is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Rebels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, UNLV’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Rebels will not get their preferred style of play tonight against San Diego State.  The Rebels are 0-6 this season when held to less than 70 points, and with the posted total currently at 129, the oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game.  That is the lowest total on a UNLV game this season; their previous low was 134.5 in a game they lost outright after scoring just 57 points.  San Diego State’s style will frustrate UNLV, so we’ll take the points with the Aztecs in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play SAN DIEGO STATE (+).

Oklahoma is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at LSU with a 17-2 SU record.  The Sooners have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Cyclones is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma.  The Sooners are playing a meaningless out-of-conference road game in the middle of their Big 12 schedule against a good team that needs a signature win to build their resume for March.  Oklahoma will be playing on the road for the third time in four games, and this will also be their fifth road game over their last eight games.  The Sooners haven’t been as dominant on the road either where they are just 4-2 SU this season; they survived by 2 points at Oklahoma State, they won by 3 points at Hawaii, and they only won by 6 points at Memphis.  Overall, the Sooners’ defense is giving up 82.3 points per game on the road this season.

LSU is having a decent season as they come into this game with a 13-7 SU record overall, however they are 9-4 SU the past 13 games with shooting guard Keith Hornsby (13.2 ppg, 50% FG) back in the lineup.  The Tigers are 11-1 SU at home where they own an excellent +12.9 point differential on the season.  LSU’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 86.4 points per game on 51.5% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land.  LSU really needs a big win over a highly ranked opponent to boost their credentials for the NCAA tournament, and this game against Oklahoma provides the Tigers with a tremendous opportunity to get a signature win.  This non-conference game is much more important for LSU than Oklahoma.  Look for a peak performance by the Tigers in this home game today.

9* Play LSU (+).

Washington surprised us on Thursday night when they won 87-85 at UCLA.  But we have no hesitation in playing against the Huskies once again in today’s game at USC.  Washington’s defense has been atrocious on the road this season, and it’s a fluke that they have a 3-1 record in true road games.  The Huskies are giving up 90.8 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 40.8% shooting from three-point land.  Washington beat USC 87-85 at home earlier this season, but the Huskies got extremely lucky to win that game.  The Trojans led by 22 points in the second half before Washington made a furious rally to win.  USC out-shot the Huskies 47%-33.3% from the field and 47.1%-36% from three-point land, and that game was on Washington’s home court.  

USC snapped their 2-game losing streak with an 81-71 win over Washington State in their last home game.  Their previous two losses both came on the road on the backend of their fourth and fifth road games over a 7-game stretch.  USC is a perfect 12-0 at home where they own an incredible +18.2 point differential this season.  The Trojans are averaging 86.8 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 41.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  USC’s defense has been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 38.8% shooting from the field and 28.5% shooting from three-point land.  The Trojans are catching Washington at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with USC in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play USC (-).

Orlando has been struggling as of late, but the Magic are in a good spot for a very important game tonight in Boston.  The Magic have had two full days to prepare for this game; one they are treating like a playoff game.  “These games, direct where you can pick up a game on a team in front of you, are critical,” said Orlando head coach Scott Skiles.  “We’re only three out of the playoffs. To pick up a game on a night like tonight would be big for us. We need to put a nice quality win in our belt.”  Orlando already beat Boston this season; the Magic romped in a 110-91 home win back in late-November.  It was one of the Magic’s best performances of the season; they held Boston to just 40.9% (36-88) shooting from the field and 18.5% (5-27) shooting from three-point land.

Boston is playing good basketball right now, but the Celtics have had an easy schedule as of late.  Wins over struggling teams like the Wizards, Suns, and Nuggets don’t mean much at all.  Boston head coach Brad Stevens is concerned with tonight’s matchup, especially after the way the Celtics lost the first meeting.  “When we went down there, we got pounded,” Stevens said.  “The way I look at it, when a team beats you and you played them once, they’re a lot better than you are.”  Boston allowed Orlando to shoot 48.4% (45-93) from the field, and the Magic out-scored the Celtics 52-38 inside the paint.  Orlando also had a 54-34 rebounding edge, including 17-9 on the offensive glass.  Orlando is simply a bad match-up for Boston, so we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Friday night. 

10* Play MAGIC (+).

Washington is having a much better season than projected as the Huskies come into this game with a 13-6 record.  The Huskies are off an 80-75 home loss to Utah on Sunday night.  Washington was 4-point underdogs in that game, and after rallying late to tie the game, they came up short in overtime.  That was their third overtime game in their last seven games, and that loss may linger for awhile.  Washington now takes to the road where their defense is giving up 93 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the field and 43.6% shooting from three-point land.  Washington beat UCLA 96-93 in overtime at home earlier this season.  The difference in that game came from three-point land where the Huskies were +24 points after making 11 three’s to just 3 made three’s for the Bruins.  Despite that, Washington only won the game by 3 points in overtime.

UCLA is just 1-2 over their last three games, but they played two of those games on the road.  The Bruins return home off a road loss at Oregon, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a strong bounce back performance here.  UCLA is 9-2 at home where they are averaging 81.5 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 38.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Bruins’ defense has been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 40% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Bruins are in an excellent bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with UCLA in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play UCLA (-).

Ohio State is 13-8 on the season, but eleven of those wins have come on their home court.  The Buckeyes are just 1-4 in true road games this season with their average loss coming by a whopping 23.7 points per game.  Overall, Ohio State has played the #97 rated schedule this season, so the majority of their wins have come against inferior opponents.  The Buckeyes did beat Illinois earlier this season, but they only won that game by 2 points (75-73).  Ohio State won that game at the free throw line as they were +19 in points (28-9) and +28 in attempts (39-11).  Despite that, the Buckeyes only won the game by 2 points, and they won’t get the favorable home whistle in this game.  Ohio State’s offense is only averaging 61.8 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Illinois comes into this game off a 76-71 overtime win at Minnesota on Saturday night.  Off that win, we expect a strong home performance here, especially since the Illini lost their previous home game.  Illinois’ offense has played much better basketball at home where they are averaging 77.7 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land this season.  Ohio State’s defense is giving up 78.2 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  We’ll back Illinois in this game on Thursday night.  

9* Play ILLINOIS (+).

Oregon State snapped their 3-game losing streak by beating USC as 2-point home underdogs on Sunday afternoon.  The Beavers scored 85 points in that game after shooting 47.1% (32-68) from the field and 85.7% (18-21) from the free throw line.  Oregon State shot terribly from the three-point line as they only hit 16.7% (3-18) from beyond the arc.  The only reason Oregon State won that game was due to USC simply having one of their worst offensive games of the season.  The Beavers won on the scoreboard, but they did nothing in that game to show that their recent funk is over.  Now they must take to the road where they’ve lost their last two conference games by a combined 23 points.  The Beavers’ offense is only averaging 63.8 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field on the road this season.  They only scored 53 and 54 points in their two conference road games.   

Arizona State has lost three straight games, and six of their last seven games overall.  However, the Sun Devils have played a brutal schedule during that span, including four of the seven games being on the road.  Arizona State returns home off back-to-back road losses, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Sun Devils’ offense has also been terrific at home this season where they are averaging 79.8 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona State is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Sun Devils in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play ARIZONA STATE (-).

Oklahoma City and Minnesota will play for the third time in 15 days on Wednesday night.  The Thunder won the first two games, but they only beat the Timberwolves by 5 points (101-96) in Minnesota.  The Thunder will play their fourth and final game of their current road trip tonight, and they’ll be doing so on a back-to-back set.  This will also be Oklahoma City’s fourth game in six nights.  The Thunder played in New York last night and they beat the Knicks 128-122 in overtime.  Four guys played 42 minutes or more with all five starters playing 35 minutes or more.  Oklahoma City scored 128 points last night; their third most points of the season after shooting 46.5% (46-99) from the field, 55% (11-20) from three-point land, and 86.2% (25-29) from the free throw line.  After playing a perfect game, and off a grueling overtime, we expect regression from Oklahoma City tonight.

Minnesota returns home off a 114-107 loss in Cleveland on Monday night.  The Timberwolves played much better than expected in that game, especially considering the Cavaliers were in a prime spot after an embarrassing loss in their previous game.  The Timberwolves have played three of their last four games on the road, so a welcomed home game against an opponent in a terrible spot gives Minnesota an excellent shot to steal a win.  The Timberwolves are 2-2 in their last four home games with their two losses only coming by 6 and 5 points.  Minnesota’s offense comes into this game in terrific current form; the Timberwolves have averaged 104.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field over their last five games.  We’ll take the points with Minnesota in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Louisville is 16-3 on the season, but the Cardinals have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition.  Louisville has played the #149 rated schedule this season; the worst of any team ranked in the Top 25.  Some of their wins have come against the likes of Hartford, North Florida, St. Francis (NY), Grand Canyon, Kennesaw State, Utah Valley, and other no-names.  Louisville has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.  The Cardinals have been shaky on the road where they are just 2-3 in true road games this season.  Their two wins have come by just 5 points (77-72) at North Carolina State, and by 4 points (75-71) at Georgia Tech on Saturday.

Virginia Tech comes into this game off back-to-back losses with their last being a 75-70 home loss to North Carolina.  Off those two losses, we expect a strong bounce back performance here, especially since nine of the Hokies’ twelve wins have come at home this season.  Virginia Tech is holding their opponents to just 67.7 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville’s offense is only averaging 70.8 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 28.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Louisville has not won by big margins on the road this season, so we’ll take the points with the Hokies in this game on Wednesday night.  

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (+).

Indiana is 17-3 on the season, but the Hoosiers have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition.  Indiana has played the #143 rated schedule this season; the second worst of any team ranked in the Top 25.  Some of their wins have come against the likes of Eastern Illinois, Austin Peay, Alcorn State, Morehead State, McNeese State, Keenesaw State, and other no-names.  Indiana has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.  The Hoosiers’ defense has been terrible on the road where they are allowing 74.5 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 43.1% shooting from three-point land.  Indiana only beat Wisconsin 59-58 at home earlier this month despite out-shooting the Badgers 48.8%-41.3% from the field, 41.2%-25% from three-point land, and 100%-69.6% from the free throw line.   

Wisconsin struggled early as expected, but the Badgers have played much better basketball recently.  Wisconsin is just 7-6 over their last 13 games, but their six losses have come by a combined 18 points with four of their losses coming by 3 points or less.  Wisconsin is playing with a lot of confidence right now, and their home court is one of the strongest in all of college basketball.  The Badgers are holding their opponents to just 64.2 points per game at home this season.  Indiana’s offensive efficiency drops sharply on the road where they are scoring 10.6 points per game less while shooting 4.1% less from the field and 3.9% less from three-point land.  We expect another low-scoring defensive slugfest, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Tuesday night.  

9* Play WISCONSIN (+).

Creighton is having a much better season than projected as the Bluejays come into this game with a 14-6 record.  However, Creighton has played an easy schedule (ranked 97th) with wins over inferior teams like Texas Southern, UTSA, Rutgers, Western Illinois, North Texas, Coppin State, and others.  Creighton comes into this game off a 72-64 home win over Butler on Saturday night.  The Bluejays had to rally back in the second half to win despite Butler playing that game without two guards who missed because of injuries.  Creighton now takes to the road where their defense is giving up 76.3 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.  Creighton beat Georgetown at home earlier this season, but the difference in that game came at the free throw line where the Bluejays were +18 points after a favorable home whistle gave them 25 free throw attempts to just 7 attempts for the Hoyas.     

Georgetown is just 1-2 over their last three games, but they played three of the best teams in the Big East, Villanova, Xavier, and Connecticut.  Overall, Georgetown has played the much tougher schedule (ranked 43rd) this season as well.  The Hoyas are now taking a step-down in class against Creighton in this game.  Georgetown comes in off a road loss, and a loss in their previous home game, so that ensures we’ll get a peak performance in this game.  Georgetown’s defense has been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 67.2 points per game on 37.9% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Hoyas are in an excellent bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with Georgetown in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play GEORGETOWN (-).

Minnesota is once again having a miserable season despite a roster full of young talent.  The Timberwolves are terribly coached, and that’s a major reason for their non-development.  Minnesota comes into this game off a rare win; they are just 3-15 over their last 18 games.  The Timberwolves have not won back-to-back games since mid-December, and they have little chance to win tonight’s game in Cleveland.  The Timberwolves have played little defense all season; they are giving up 102.8 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land.  On the road, Minnesota is allowing 103.7 points per game.  Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have given up 104.2 points per  game on 47.3% shooting from the field.  Minnesota’s second worst defensive game of the season came at home against Cleveland when the Cavaliers scored 125 points on them; the Timberwolves gave up 129 points to Golden State.

Cleveland fired head coach David Blatt prior to their last home game against Chicago.  The Cavaliers were embarrassed in their first game for Tyronn Lue; they lost 96-83 to the Bulls as 10.5-point home favorites.  Cleveland played their worst offensive home game of the season as they shot just 37.2% (35-94) from the field and 16.7% (4-24) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers also shot just 40.9% (9-22) from the free throw line.  Cleveland’s offense will play much better tonight, especially since they scored 125 in Minnesota earlier this season.  In that game, Cleveland shot 53.1% (43-81) from the field and 48.1% (13-27) from three-point land.  Cleveland had six players score in double figures in that game, and a repeat performance is likely tonight.  Cleveland is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Monday night.        

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Maryland is having a terrific season as they come into this game with a 17-2 record.  However, the Terrapins are just 9-10 ATS which is a clear indicator that they are not a dominating team.  Maryland has played just the 92nd ranked schedule, so the poor pointspread record certainly raises some red flags.  Maryland’s last two conference road games were also close calls as they lost by 3 points at Michigan and they only won by 3 points at Northwestern.  Now they will be playing in one of the toughest gyms in the Big 10, and another shaky performance will result in a blowout loss.  Maryland is heavily reliant on their 3-point shooting as 30.3% of their points scored come from beyond the arc.  But the Terrapins will face an extremely difficult matchup here as Michigan State only allows 24.4% of the points scored on them to come from three-point land.   

Michigan State opened the season at 13-0, but the Spartans are just 3-4 over their last seven games.  They come into this game on a 3-game losing streak with two of those losses coming on their strong home court.  Michigan State will come with a peak performance here, and we expect them to snap their losing streak in a big way.  Michigan State’s defense has been excellent all season; they’ve held their opponents to just 55.5 points per game on 34.1% shooting from the field and 25.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Michigan State’s offense has also been terrific at home this season where they are averaging 75.5 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land.  Michigan State is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Spartans in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

Oklahoma State is just 10-8 on the season, but the majority of the Cowboys’ wins have come against the likes of Long Beach State twice, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Tennessee-Martin, Towson, Longwood, UMKC, and TCU.  Oklahoma State comes into this game off their biggest win of the season, an 86-67 win over Kansas as 9-point home underdogs.  That win was preceded by close games against Oklahoma and Texas.  Those three games culminated in a huge upset win, and it only sets the Cowboys to regress significantly in tonight’s game at Kansas State.  The Cowboys are the Big 12’s least experienced team, and they are playing without their best player, Phil Forte, who is out for the season with an elbow injury.  Oklahoma State is 0-3 in true road games with their average loss coming by 13 points per game.  

Kansas State is just 1-5 over their last six games, but three of those games came on the road.  The  Wildcats played Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Baylor during that span, so they are now taking a monumental step-down in class against Oklahoma State in this game.  Kansas State also lost their last home game, so returning home off a road loss ensures we’ll get a peak performance in this game.  Kansas State is 8-2 at home where they own a +12.3 point differential this season.  The Wildcats’ defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 64.9 points per game on 40% shooting from the field and 23.8% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma State is simply in a terrible spot for a young team, so we’ll lay the points with Kansas State in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play KANSAS STATE (-).

Louisville is 15-3 on the season, but the Cardinals have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition.  Louisville has played the #178 rated schedule this season; the worst of any team ranked in the Top 25.  Some of their wins have come against the likes of Hartford, North Florida, St. Francis (NY), Grand Canyon, Kennesaw State, Utah Valley, and other no-names.  Louisville has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.  The Cardinals have been shaky on the road where they are just 1-3 in true road games this season.  Their lone win came by just 5 points (77-72) at North Carolina State.

Georgia Tech comes into this game off back-to-back losses with their last being a 78-77 home loss to Virginia Tech.  Off those two losses, we expect a strong bounce back performance here, especially since the Yellow Jackets are 9-2 at home this season.  Georgia Tech played their worst defensive home game of the season as they allowed 78 points to the Hokies, including 45 points in the second half.  Overall, Georgia Tech is holding their opponents to just 68.2 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field and 30.1% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville’s offense is only averaging 69.8 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field and 26.9% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Louisville only beat Georgia Tech 52-51 on this court last season, and we expect another low-scoring defensive slugfest, so we’ll take the points with the Yellow Jackets in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Oklahoma City is playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The Thunder come into this game on a 6-game winning streak, and they are 8-1 over their last nine games overall.  Oklahoma City has scored 101 points or more in 13 of their last 14 games; they scored 99 points in the lone game they failed to eclipse the century mark.  The Thunder are averaging 107.8 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field over their last five games.  Oklahoma City will face a Dallas defense that has given up 108 points or more in four of their last six games.  The Thunder have scored 104 points or more in their last seven meetings against Dallas, and there’s no reason to expect anything different in tonight’s game.

Dallas comes into this game off back-to-back overtime wins at home over the Celtics and Timberwolves.  But now the Mavericks are taking a huge step-up in class against Oklahoma City, and their good fortune will run out in this game.  Dallas’ offense is not in good current form; they’ve scored 98 points or less in regulation time over their last five games, and in seven of their last eight games overall.  The Mavericks are only averaging 95.8 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field and 30.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  That’s not good considering Oklahoma City’s defense has allowed just 91 points per game on 40.9% shooting from the field and 29.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Dallas is also battling nagging injuries to Dirk Nowitzki and Raymond Felton; both are listed as game-time decisions tonight.  Oklahoma City is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Thunder in this game on Friday night.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Memphis hits the road after playing six consecutive home games; the Grizzlies went 5-1 SU in those games, including a 91-84 win over Denver.  Memphis will be playing their first road game in 15 days, and they will be doing so in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  That’s not a good thing, especially for a team that has been cozy and comfy at home for the past two weeks.  The Grizzlies are also playing with a hobbled point guard; Mike Conley is dealing with a lingering achilles injury that has limited his explosiveness.  Conley is a liability on the court, especially on the defensive end against Denver who has two quick guards who can penetrate the lane while looking for easy baskets in transition.  In their last meeting, Memphis only won by 7 points at home despite out-shooting the Nuggets 44.4%-21.1% from three-point land; they were +12 in points from beyond the arc.

Denver will play the fifth game of their 8-game home stand tonight; the Nuggets have alternated wins and losses over their last four games.  Denver comes in off a 110-104 loss to Oklahoma City on Tuesday night.  The Nuggets’ offense struggled mightily in that game as they only shot 42.2% (35-83) from the field.  Denver’s problem in that game was rebounding as the Thunder grabbed 52 boards, including 16 offensive rebounds.  Denver is 0-13 this season when getting out-rebounded, but the Nuggets should dominate the glass tonight.  In the last meeting in Memphis, the Nuggets held a 59-43 rebounding edge, including a 19-11 edge on the offensive glass.  The Grizzlies have historically struggled in Denver; Memphis is 3-26 SU their last 29 visits to the Mile High City.  We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play NUGGETS (+).

USC has shocked the Pac 12 so far this season.  The Trojans come into this game at Oregon with a 15-3 record, including a 4-1 mark in conference play.  USC was picked to finish tenth in the Pac 12 over the summer because the team is loaded with youth and inexperience.  But the Trojans have overachieved thus far, and tonight’s game against a veteran Oregon team is an extremely difficult challenge.  USC will be playing on a back-to-back road set for just the third time this season; they lost the second game of back-to-backs their two previous times.  And those games came against much lesser competition like Monmouth-NJ and Washington.  The Trojans’ defense comes into this game in poor current form as well; they’ve allowed 81 points per game over their last five games.

Oregon returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 91-87 loss at Colorado.  The Ducks are a perfect 11-0 at home where they own a terrific +13.9 point differential this season.  Oregon is averaging 78.4 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field at home this season.  The Ducks’ defense has also been fantastic at home where they are holding opponents to just 64.5 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three-point land.  Oregon is a perfect 3-0 when playing off a loss this season, winning those games by an average of 12.7 points per game.  Oregon is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Ducks in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play OREGON (-).

Arizona State surprised many by opening the season with a 10-3 record.  Since their hot start, the Sun Devils are just 1-4 over their last five games.  Arizona State is simply in terrible current form, and that has coincided with the step-up in class.  The Sun Devils are just 1-3 in their last four road games, including 0-2 on the road in conference play.  All three of those losses have come by 7 points or more with their average loss coming by 10.3 points per game.  Arizona State’s defense has been terrible away from home all season; the Sun Devils are giving up 72.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 40.4% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, their defense has been even worse while allowing 82.4 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 46.9% shooting from three-point land.

California returns home off three straight road losses, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance in this game.  The Golden Bears are a perfect 11-0 at home where they own an incredible +18.1 point differential this season.  California is averaging 78.5 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  California did lose Tyrone Wallace to a hand injury, but he was playing out of position at point guard when he’s a natural wing player.  Wallace’s absence will open up the California offense because they’ll be led by true point guard, Sam Singer.  California is the better team and they are desperate for win, so we’ll lay the points with the Golden Bears in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play CALIFORNIA (-).

Atlanta and Portland match-up extremely well for a high-scoring game.  The teams have gone Over the total in three straight meetings, and we expect more of the same tonight.  In their earlier season meeting, the Hawks and Trail Blazers combined to score 203 points despite terrible shooting.  The teams combined to take 158 shots from the field, including 53 attempts from three-point land.  Atlanta shot 48.1% (37-77) from the field, but just 31% (9-29) from three-point land.  The Hawks scored a lot of easy baskets with 40 of their total points coming inside the paint.  Atlanta’s offense comes into this game in good current form as they’ve averaged 103.4 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field over their last five games.  

Portland shot the ball terribly from three-point land in that earlier game against Atlanta.  The Trail Blazers hit just 20.8% (5-24) from beyond the arc, and they added just 16 points from the free-throw line.  Portland also scored a lot of easy baskets as 50 of their total points came from inside the paint.  The Trail Blazers’ offense is in excellent current form; they’ve averaged 105.4 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 40.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  These two teams scored 203 points without great shooting and limited free-throw attempts.  With normal shooting and additional trips to the line, we expect a high-scoring game between the Hawks and Trail Blazers on Wednesday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Villanova is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Seton Hall with a 16-2 record.  The Wildcats have been unable to beat Seton Hall by margin over the last few meetings as three of the last four meetings have been decided by single digits.  Villanova beat Seton Hall 72-63 on January 6th; that game was close throughout and we expect tonight’s game to play out the same way.  Villanova was held to just 36.2% (21-58) shooting from the field and 18.2% (4-22) from three-point land.  The Wildcats won the game at the free throw line where they were +11 points.  But that game was on their home floor where they get the benefit of the whistle.  That won’t be the case tonight with the rematch on Seton Hall’s home court.  

Seton Hall returns home off an 81-72 win at Providence as 6-point underdogs on Saturday afternoon.  The Pirates are now home underdogs, and teams in this situation are strong pointspread propositions.  Seton Hall also lost their previous home game, so that makes this situation even stronger, especially in this pointspread range.  The Pirates play on a very strong home court where they are 8-1 this season, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance in this game.  Seton Hall’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 64.9 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field.  The Pirates’ offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 73.7 points per game.  Seton Hall matches-up well with Villanova, so we’ll back the Pirates on Wednesday night.

9* Play SETON HALL (+).

Detroit is just 1-3 over their last four games, but the opponents they played had a lot to do with that losing record; the Pistons lost to the Spurs, Grizzlies, and Bulls.  But they also beat the Warriors in between, and the Memphis loss came on a buzzer beater, so the 1-3 record looks worse than it actually is.  Detroit is 22-19 on the season, and they already beat Houston 116-105 earlier this season.  The Pistons’ offense is in good current form as they are averaging 103.4 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field over their last five games.  Detroit holds a significant defensive edge in this game as well.  The Pistons are holding opponents to 99.5 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land.  To compare, the Rockets are allowing 105.3 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.

Houston returns home off back-to-back games in Los Angeles against the Lakers and Clippers.  The Rockets split those games with their loss being a 140-132 defeat in overtime to the Clippers.  Houston trailed that game by 14 points going into the fourth quarter before rallying back to tie the game.  But that game took a toll on Houston, and they won’t have much energy left for tonight’s game.  The Rockets may also be without point guard Patrick Beverley who re-injured his ankle against the Clippers.  He missed shootaround this morning, and most reports say he will miss this game.  Houston’s defense is giving up 104.5 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field at home this season.  Detroit’s offense matches-up extremely well against Houston’s defense, so we’ll take Detroit plus the points on Wednesday night.

10* Play PISTONS (+).

Butler seeks revenge tonight for an earlier season home loss to Providence.  The Bulldogs blew an 11-point halftime lead in that game after allowing a season-high 56 points to Providence in the second half; Butler lost that game 81-73.  Butler’s offense has been phenomenal this season as they are averaging 84.2 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field and 36% shooting form three-point land.  Butler leads the Big East in scoring, field goal percentage, fewest turnovers, and assist/turnover ratio.  Overall, the Bulldogs’ offense ranks 13th in the country, so they certainly have an elite offensive team.  The same cannot be said of Providence, especially the way they’ve been playing in recent games.

Providence is 1-2 SU over their last three games, and they could be on an 0-3 slide if it wasn’t for a last-second win at Creighton.  The Friars are mired in a terrible offensive slump; they are shooting just 32% from the field and 19% from three-point land over their last three games.  After five Big East games, Providence is the worst shooting team (37.5%) in the conference, and they are ninth out of ten in 3-point shooting at 29%.  “It’s clear that we need to address our shot selection and just be much more disciplined and focused,” said Providence head coach Ed Cooley.  “We need some guys to pick it up, for sure.”  Butler is simply playing better basketball right now, so we’ll back the Bulldogs in this revenge spot on Tuesday night.

10* Play BUTLER (+).

Oklahoma is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Iowa State ranked #1 in the country with a 15-1 record.  The Sooners have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Cyclones is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma.  In their last three meetings against Iowa State, the Sooners are just 1-2 with their lone win coming by just 4 points on their strong home court in a game they trailed at the half.  Oklahoma will be playing their third game in six days, with two of those games coming on the road.  The Sooners haven’t been as dominant on the road recently; they survived by 2 points at Oklahoma State, lost in overtime at Kansas, and they won by 3 points at Hawaii.  Overall, the Sooners’ defense is giving up 85 points per game on the road this season.

Iowa State is also have a terrific season as they come into this game with a 13-4 record.  The Cyclones are 8-1 at home where they own an excellent +15.5 point differential on the season.  Iowa State’s defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to just 41.2% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Cyclones’ offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 87.4 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field.  Iowa State is returning home off back-to-back road games, and since they also lost their last home game, we expect a peak performance here.  We’ll back the Cyclones in this game on Monday night.

10* Play IOWA STATE (-).

Boston has played excellent basketball in their last three games.  The Celtics are 3-0 SU and ATS in those games while scoring a total of 339 points.  Prior to their last three wins, Boston was 1-6 SU and ATS over their previous seven games.  The Celtics are averaging 110.2 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Boston will face a Dallas defense that has given up 108 points or more in three of their last four games.  The Celtics lost 106-102 to Dallas at home earlier this season, but the Celtics blew an 18-point lead in that game.  The Mavericks out-shot the Celtics 51.4%-41.3% from the field and 35%-30.8% from three-point land and still only won the game by 4 points.   

Dallas played on Sunday in San Antonio and the Mavericks got embarrassed in a 112-83 blowout loss.  The Mavericks will now play on a back-to-back set while also playing their third game in four nights.  Dallas just played four games against Cleveland, Oklahoma City, Chicago, and San Antonio.  This is a natural letdown spot for a veteran team like Dallas, especially since they are playing a young team like Boston.  Head coach Rick Carlisle said this prior to Dallas’ 4-game gauntlet: “An extremely difficult schedule, there’s no doubt about that. This is the kind of stretch that challenges a group.”  The Mavericks failed miserably by going 1-3, so it’s hard to imagine Dallas being at their best for this game.  We’ll back Boston in this game on Monday night.    

9* Play CELTICS (-).

San Diego State is a shell of the team they’ve had the last couple of seasons.  The Aztecs had two fifth-year seniors and a fourth-year junior in the starting five last season.  They brought two more fourth-year juniors off the bench.  This year, San Diego State starts two freshmen and a sophomore, and they bring another freshman off the bench.  Their youth has shown throughout the season, especially on the offensive end of the court.  San Diego State is only averaging 65.6 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 31.5% shooting from three-point land.  The Aztecs had an extremely difficult time scoring points against Boise State’s defense with a veteran team; they were held to just 46 points in the last two meetings.  Now they have a worse offense, so it’s hard to imagine the young and inexperienced Aztecs having much offensive success in tonight’s game.   

Boise State has been a terrific team over the last three seasons.  The Broncos have won 21 games or more the last three years, and they are set to eclipse their 25 wins of a season ago.  Boise State is an experienced and veteran team that has an efficient offense and a strong, half-court defense.  The Broncos are 13-4 on the season, including a perfect 9-0 at home.  Three of their four losses have come against two of the best teams in the country: Arizona twice and Michigan State.  Boise State is averaging 80.1 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 34.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Boise State is the better team with the superior offense, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

Air Force plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Falcons play at one of the slowest paces in the country with their Princeton offense.  They combine that with a solid defense that is holding opponents to 42.4% shooting from the field and 32.8% shooting from three-point land this season.  Air Force is 3-3 against UNLV in the last six meetings, and in the games in which the Rebels primarily played man-to-man defense, the Falcons averaged 32 points in the paint and they won two of three games.  But UNLV played zone defense in the other games, and they got the better of Air Force.  “If you believe what you read, they won’t play zone,” Air Force Dave Pilipovich said.

UNLV fired head coach Dave Rice earlier this week, and Todd Simon is the current interim coach.  The Rebels responded with an 86-74 win over New Mexico in Simon’s first game, but we expect regression off that performance.  UNLV is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Rebels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, UNLV’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Rebels will not get their preferred style of play tonight against Air Force, and as noted above, UNLV is unlikely to play zone defense because Simon wants to play at a fast pace and he doesn’t want his players burnt out on the defensive end of the court.  Air Force’s style will frustrate UNLV, so we’ll take the generous points with the Falcons in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play AIR FORCE (+).

Portland has played excellent basketball in their last three games.  The Trail Blazers upset the Thunder 115-110 as home underdogs last Sunday night, they beat the Jazz 99-85 on Wednesday night, and last night they cashed a Best Bet winner for us in their 116-104 win over Brooklyn.  The Trail Blazers are averaging 107.2 points per game on 44.1% shooting from the field and 40.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Portland will face a terrible Philadelphia defense that is in terrible current form.  The Sixers have given up 108.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Portland is playing full of confidence right now, and they are catching the Sixers at the perfect time.   

Philadelphia is having a miserable season; they come into this game with an ugly 4-37 record.  The Sixers just played four home games against playoff-bound teams; Hawks, Raptors, Cavaliers, and Bulls.  Philadelphia gave tremendous effort in their last two games, especially their last against Chicago.  The Sixers led that game 62-46 at the half, but they ultimately lost 115-111 in overtime.  Five players scored in double figures; that has been a rare occurrence for the Sixers this season.  That’s a game that will linger with Philadelphia, especially considering how their season is going.  Portland is the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Trail Blazers in this game on Saturday night.    

9* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-).

Portland has played excellent basketball in their last two games.  The Trail Blazers upset the Thunder 115-110 as home underdogs last Sunday night, and they beat the Jazz 99-85 on Wednesday night.  The impressive part about those two wins is that Portland was able to play two completely different styles of basketball; the Oklahoma City game was played at a quick pace while the Utah game was a slow, half-court grinder.  Prior to their last two wins, Portland had lost three consecutive games.  But their opponents had a lot to do with those losses; the Warriors, Clippers, and Grizzlies all defeated Portland.  The Trail Blazers now travel to Brooklyn full of confidence, and they are catching the Nets at the perfect time.     

Brooklyn has has a miserable season; the Nets come into this game with an ugly 11-28 record.  Their head coach and general manager got fired earlier this week, and in their first game after, the Nets got embarrassed at home by the Spurs by 27 points (106-79).  Brooklyn responded in their next game as they beat the New York Knicks 110-104 as 3.5-point home underdogs on Wednesday night.  Brooklyn shot 52.3% (45-86) from the field and 52.9% (9-17) from three-point land in that game.  It was a complete team effort as six players scored in double figures; that has been a rare occurrence for the Nets this season.  Brooklyn is also playing with a limited lineup because of injuries, so it’s highly unlikely they can repeat their performance from the Knicks game.  Portland is the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Trail Blazers in this game on Friday night.    

10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-).

Sacramento hits the road after playing three consecutive home games; the Kings went just 1-2 SU in those games, including last night’s 109-97 loss to the Pelicans.  Sacramento must now hit the road, and play on a back-to-back set while playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  The Kings will face a Utah team that plays at an extremely slow pace while playing excellent team defense.  Sacramento has struggled mightily when held to less than 100 points this season.  In fact, the Kings are just 2-12 SU when scoring less than 100 points this season with their two wins coming by a combined 8 points.  Their average loss when held to less than 100 points has come by 11 points per game.  Sacramento is just 1-5 on the road when held to less than 100 points with those losses coming by 9.6 points per game.

Utah failed for us last night in their 99-85 loss in Portland, but we have no hesitation in coming right back with the Jazz for the same reasons.  Utah is playing much better now that Rudy Gobert is back on the court.  Gobert missed a month of action which totaled 18 games; the Jazz went just 7-11 in those games.  Since Gobert has returned to the starting lineup, Utah is 2-1 with their wins coming by 12 and 15 points.  The biggest difference with Gobert on the court has been the play of the Utah defense.  During that stretch without Gobert, the Jazz gave up 101 points per game while allowing 103 points or more eight times in their eleven losses.  In their last three games, Utah has given up a total of 256 points.  The Jazz are a perfect 2-0 at home when playing off a road loss the night before; Utah won those games by scores of 106-85 and 109-96.  We’ll lay the points with Utah in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play JAZZ (-).

Connecticut is 11-4 on the season, but the Huskies are not in the best of current form right now.  They’ve won five of their last six games, but Connecticut is on an 0-3 ATS slide.  The Huskies were in a terrific situational spot for their last home game against Memphis, but they barely survived that game in an 81-78 win.  Now the Huskies must take to the road after playing six of their last nine games at home.  Connecticut has been playing without their starting center, Amida Brimah, due to a finger injury.  His absence has really affected Connecticut’s play on both ends of the court, especially inside the paint.  Tulsa has the big guys inside to take advantage of Brimah’s absence. 

Tulsa returned all five starters this season, including their top eight players from last year’s 24-win team.  Tulsa’s offense is explosive; they are averaging 74 points per game.  “We finally bought into Coach Haith’s system and the ball movement has been very good for us,” James Woodard said.  “We’re getting a lot of assists off each other and moving off the ball, that’s what they’ve been preaching. It’s hard for teams to guard if everybody’s clicking on all cylinders.”  Tulsa’s losses this season have come against strong teams like SMU, Cincinnati, South Carolina, and Oregon State.  Connecticut is a notch below those teams, and Tulsa matches-up extremely well with the Huskies.  We’ll back Tulsa in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play TULSA (+).

Utah is playing much better now that Rudy Gobert is back on the court.  Gobert missed a month of action which totaled 18 games; the Jazz went just 7-11 in those games.  Since Gobert has returned to the starting lineup, Utah is a perfect 2-0 with their wins coming by 12 and 15 points.  The biggest difference with Gobert on the court has been the play of the Utah defense.  During that stretch without Gobert, the Jazz gave up 101 points per game while allowing 103 points or more eight times in their eleven losses.  In the last two games, Utah gave up just 83 points to Miami and 74 points to the Los Angeles Lakers.  “It’s great, man,” Trey Burke said of Gobert’s return.  “He’s one of our defensive specialists, obviously an anchor back there. If a guy gets beat he can come over and clean it up. His rebounding ability and versatility. It’s great to have a guy like that back.”

Portland comes into this game off a 115-110 upset win over Oklahoma City as 7.5-point home underdogs.  The Trail Blazers have scored 223 points in their last two games despite shooting a terrible 40.8% (80-196) from the field.  Portland got the majority of their scoring from three-point land where they shot 40.3% (31-77), and from the free throw line where they converted 32 of their 42 attempts.  Portland will now face a team that plays at a slow pace while playing excellent team defense.  The Trail Blazers have struggled mightily when held to less than 100 points this season.  Portland is just 1-14 SU when scoring less than 100 points this season with their lone win coming by just 4 points as 9-point underdogs at Sacramento.  The Jazz will stifle the Portland offense with Gobert back on the court, so we’ll take Utah plus the points on Wednesday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

La Salle comes into this game off a 61-57 upset home win over Dayton as 12-point underdogs on Saturday afternoon.  The Explorers actually trailed 43-36 with 8 minutes left to play before rallying to win that game.  That win ended a 7-game losing streak for La Salle, and all the points were scored by the starters.  Off such a game, the Explorers figure to regress sharply tonight, especially since they will be facing a focused Richmond team that will come with their best effort.  La Salle is an extremely shorthanded team because of injuries and suspensions; they only have six players in the mix.  La Salle starts four guards, and they simply get crushed on the boards, and they’ll be unable to overcome that in this game.

Richmond returns home after playing back-to-back road games; three of their last four games have come on the road.  The Spiders also lost their last home game to St. Joseph’s after blowing a halftime lead.  Richmond will be ready for a peak performance in this game, and they will simply overwhelm a thin La Salle team.  Richmond’s offense has been tremendous at home as they are averaging 81.9 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land.  La Salle’s defense is giving up 77 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 39.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Spiders on Wednesday night.   

9* Play RICHMOND (-).

San Antonio is one of the best teams in the NBA, but they come into this game off a blowout win in Brooklyn last night.  The Spurs beat the Nets 106-79 on Monday night in a game they virtually led from start to finish.  San Antonio shot a terrific 53.7% (44-82) from the field while eleven players scored at least 2 points in the game.  Despite the 27-point margin of victory, San Antonio had three starters play 24 minutes or more.  Head coach Gregg Popovich is known for resting his key players on the second night of back-to-back sets, so it wouldn’t be a shocker to see some guys sit this game out.  This is also just the second time all season in which the Spurs are playing a back-to-back road set; their last came way back in early November in games #3 and #4 when they beat the Knicks in a 94-84 lethargically played game.

Detroit comes into this game with two full days of rest, so they are the fresher team.  The Pistons are also in excellent current form as they’ve won three consecutive games, and four of their last five games overall.  Detroit has played terrific basketball at home where they are 13-5 this season while averaging 104.9 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land.  Detroit’s defense has been outstanding over their last five games; the Pistons held their opponents to just 91.2 points per game on 42.6% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Detroit plus the points on Tuesday night.

9* Play PISTONS (+).

Kansas is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at West Virginia ranked #1 in the country with a 14-1 record.  The Jayhawks have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Mountaineers is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Kansas.  In their last three meetings against West Virginia, the Jayhawks are just 1-2 with their lone win coming in overtime on their strong home court; they trailed by 14 points at the half in that game.  Kansas will be playing their second consecutive road game, and it comes on the heels of their 109-106 triple overtime home win over Oklahoma.  Kansas will also face 40 minutes of pressure from the Mountaineers who employ a relentless full-court press; the Jayhawks have yet to face a similar team this season.  West Virginia is #1 in the country in turnover percentage meaning they force their opponents into a lot of mistakes.  They also have the #2 three-point defense in the country; they hold their opponents to just 26.3% shooting from three-point land at home.

West Virginia is also have a terrific season as they come into this game with a 14-1 record.  The Mountaineers are a perfect 7-0 at home where they own an incredible +36.7 point differential on the season.  West Virginia’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 56.9 points per game on 40.1% shooting from the field.  The Mountaineers’ offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 93.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field.  West Virginia is also tremendous on the glass as they rank #1 in offensive rebounding percentage which allows them to get a lot of second-chance points.  West Virginia matches-up extremely well with Kansas, so we’ll back the Mountaineers in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play WEST VIRGINIA (+).

Villanova is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Butler with a 13-2 record.  The Wildcats have been unable to beat Butler by margin in Hinkle Fieldhouse, winning 76-73 in overtime two years ago and 68-65 last year.  Butler is simply a bad matchup for Villanova because of the way the Wildcats play.  The way to beat the Bulldogs is with guards that can break down a defense off the dribble.  Villanova’s Ryan Arcidiacono and Jalen Brunson are terrific guards, but Villanova’s offense is not based on dribble penetration.  The Wildcats want to get out and run in transition, but when forced into half-court offense, they run set plays that look to free open a spot-up shooter.  Villanova’s style of play has limited their effectiveness against Butler, and we expect that to be the case once again tonight. 

Butler returns home off back-to-back road games in which they went 1-1.  The Bulldogs lost their previous home game to Providence after blowing an 11-point halftime lead.  Butler plays on a very strong home court where they are 7-1 this season, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance in this game.  The Bulldogs’ defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 38.6% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land.  Butler’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 94.8 points per game on 54.3% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting form three-point land.  Villanova’s defense has been much worse on the road this season; they are allowing 76.3 points per game on 48.5% shooting form the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  Butler is extremely tough to beat on their home court, and since they are getting points in this game, we’ll back the Bulldogs on Sunday night.

9* Play BUTLER (+).

North Carolina has been impressive this season, and the Tar Heels come into this game with a 14-2 record.  They’ve scored 78 points or more in 15 of their 16 games this season which is incredible.  North Carolina is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Tar Heels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, North Carolina’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Tar Heels will not get their preferred style of play tonight as Syracuse plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  North Carolina has been held to less than 70 points just once this season, and that resulted in a loss at Northern Iowa.  Syracuse has held all nine of their home opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time this season.  North Carolina scored a season-high 106 points at Florida State in their last game, so regression is expected in this game.

Syracuse is 10-6 on the season, and they come into this game on a 3-game losing streak with the last being a 74-73 overtime loss at home to Clemson.  Off that loss, and with head coach Jim Boeheim returning after serving his 9-game suspension, we expect a peak performance by Syracuse in this game.  The Orange play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense.  Syracuse is holding their opponents to just 59.1 points per game on 38% shooting from the field and 30.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Syracuse also matches-up extremely well with North Carolina.  The Tar Heels score 61% of their points from 2-point range, but Syracuse only allows 49% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  The Orange score 37% of their points from three-point land, and 37% of the points scored on North Carolina come from beyond the arc.  Syracuse’s style will frustrate North Carolina, so we’ll back the Orange in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play SYRACUSE (+).

Memphis is 10-4 on the season, but the Tigers have played nothing in terms of competition.  Some of their wins have come against the likes of Southern Mississippi, Grambling State, Texas-Arlington, SE Missouri State, Southern, Indiana-Purdue, and Nicholls State.  Memphis is taking a big step-up in class against Connecticut in this game, and they may be doing so without Kedren Johnson who has a nagging shoulder injury; he has averaged 15.5 points per game against Connecticut in his career.  Memphis’ defense has been atrocious away from home this season; the Tigers are giving up 86 points per game.  Memphis has only played one true road game, and they lost by 10 points at South Carolina. 

Connecticut comes into this game off 55-53 home loss to Temple on Tuesday night.  The Huskies played their worst offensive game of the season as they only shot 31.6% (18-57) from the field and 20% (4-20) from three-point land.  Connecticut was forced into a half-court scrum by Temple, but the Huskies’ offense will play much better in this game since Memphis likes to play at a quick pace.  Connecticut is averaging 83.1 points per game on 52.5% shooting from the field and 36.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  Connecticut’s defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 58.8 points per game on 36% shooting from the field and 30.2% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Connecticut in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play CONNECTICUT (-).

Wichita State comes into this game with just a 9-5 record.  Prior to the season, most projections had the Shockers with just one or two losses at this point.  But an early injury to star guard Fred VanVleet saw Wichita State open the season at just 2-4.  Wichita State is 7-1 since VanVleet returned, but the Shockers have played five of those games at home and two of those wins only came by 3 and 6 points.  They also lost in overtime at Seton Hall, so the Shockers have not been a dominating team by any means this season, even with VanVleet on the court.  Wichita State must now hit the road where they are giving up 67 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field and 38.6% shooting from three-point land.  Those numbers are way up from previous years, and they indicate that Wichita State may have been a tad overvalued coming into this season.  

Southern Illinois has played much better basketball this season; the Salukis come into this game with a solid 14-2 record.  Their two losses this season have come by a combined 7 points.  Southern Illinois returns home off a blowout road win at Bradley, and they are getting no respect as home underdogs in this game.  Southern Illinois’ offense is averaging 78 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field at home this season, and they combine that with a defense that has held their last five opponents to just 40.6% shooting from the field and 24.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Salukis are still flying way under the radar, and this is their biggest game in a few years.  We’ll back Southern Illinois in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (+).

Dallas and Milwaukee just played twelve days ago with the Mavericks winning 103-93 at home.  That game was played at a quick pace as the teams combined to take 163 shots from the field, including 36 attempts from three-point land.  The shooting wasn’t all that good either, but the teams still combined to score 196 points.  Dallas shot just 45.2% (38-84) from the field.  The Mavericks only scored 17 points from the free-throw line after getting 26 attempts, so they left 9 free points on the court.  Dallas did well in transition as they scored 19 points on the fast-break.  The Mavericks also scored a lot of easy baskets with 46 of their total points coming inside the paint.  Dallas’ offense comes into this game in terrific current form as they’ve scored 100 points or more in six of their last eight games. 

Milwaukee shot the ball terribly from three-point land in that earlier game against Dallas.  The Bucks hit just 28.6% (4-14) from beyond the arc, and they added 13 points on just 15 attempts from the free-throw line.  Milwaukee also scored a lot of easy baskets as 40 of their total points came from inside the paint.  The Bucks’ offense is in excellent current form; they’ve averaged 108.4 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field and 44.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  “We’re not playing any defense,” sidelined head coach Jason Kidd said.  “We’re just focused on shooting and scoring the ball.”  These two teams just scored 196 points without great shooting and limited free-throw attempts.  With normal shooting and additional trips to the line, we expect a high-scoring game between the Mavericks and Bucks on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Michigan is 12-3 on the season, but the Wolverines have failed miserably when stepping-up in class.  Michigan’s wins have come against the likes of Northern Michigan, Elon, Houston Baptist, Delaware State, Northern Kentucky, Youngstown State, and Bryant.  The Wolverines lost to Xavier by 16 points, they lost to Connecticut by 14 points, and they lost to SMU by 24 points.  Michigan is now taking a big step-up in class against Purdue in this game, and they might be doing so without their leading scorer, Chris Lavert, who is questionable with a lower leg injury.  Michigan is heavily reliant on their 3-point shooting as 42.1% of their points scored come from beyond the arc.  But the Wolverines will face an extremely difficult matchup here as Purdue only allows 26.7% of the points scored on them to come from three-point land.   

Purdue comes into this game off a 70-63 home loss to Iowa on Saturday night.  The Boilermakers blew a 17-point halftime lead in that game after getting out-scored 50-26 in the second half.  “We need to use the Iowa game as a wakeup call and a way to focus more on details,” Kendall Stephens said.  “There are things we have been overlooking. We can’t play through our offense. We have to build the foundation with defense.”  Purdue’s defense has been excellent all season, so we’ll just chalk-up that poor second half to a random outcome.  The Boilermakers have held their opponents to just 59.1 points per game on 34.8% shooting from the field and 28.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  Purdue’s offense has also been terrific at home this season where they are averaging 83 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Boilermakers in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play PURDUE (-).

Nevada has played much better basketball this season, and in fact, the Wolf Pack have already won 9 games; they went 9-22 overall last season.  A major reason for the turnaround is new head coach Eric Musselman who is well-regarded in coaching circles.  However, this is a difficult spot for Nevada after coming from behind to beat Wyoming 71-68 at home on Saturday night.  The Wolf Pack have been two different teams at home and on the road; they are just 1-5 in true road games this season.  Nevada has lost those games by an average of 11 points per game, and a major reason for that has been their terrible defense.  Nevada is giving up 80.8 points per game on the road this season, and their defense will have a difficult time slowing down a potent Bulldogs offense.

Fresno State comes into this game off a terrible 77-62 home loss to New Mexico on Saturday night.  That was an inexplicably bad performance by the Bulldogs, and off such a poor effort, we expect a big bounce back game tonight.  “He got on us on Sunday, and that’s what he does,” Julien Lewis said of Fresno State head coach Rodney Terry.  “We needed that to wake us up.”  Fresno State is 8-2 at home where they are averaging 74.1 points per game.  The Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 68.8 points per game at home on 41.2% shooting from the field and 31.9% shooting from three-point land.  Fresno State is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Wednesday night.            

10* Play FRESNO STATE (-).

Charlotte comes into this game off four consecutive losses.  However, the Hornets lost to the Warriors, Thunder, Raptors, and Clippers.  Those are four of the best teams in the league, so the losses weren’t unexpected.  Charlotte had a needed day off yesterday, and since they are taking a monumental step-down in class for this game against Phoenix, we expect a strong effort from the Hornets.  Charlotte’s offense has been terrific this season; the Hornets are averaging 101.8 points per game.  Head coach Steve Clifford likes how his offense is playing: “Offensively we still have enough to win”, Clifford said.  “The Warriors are a terrific defensive team and we still scored 101. That’s more than enough to win.”  That will be the case tonight, especially against the Suns who are mired in a wicked scoring slump.

Phoenix is an absolute mess of a team right now.  The Suns are just 4-16 over their last twenty games.  They fired two assistant coaches, Eric Bledsoe is out with injury, and Markieff Morris got suspended for actions towards head coach Jeff Hornacek.  Morris then voiced his dislike of the team owner and the organization.  The Suns are an extremely fragile team right now, and they are spiraling out of control.  Phoenix has been non-competitive in their recent losses while their defense has given up 101 points or more in eight of their last nine games.  Phoenix is averaging just 95.6 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Charlotte is the better team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Hornets in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play HORNETS (-).

Cleveland is one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but they come into this game off their best and most complete game of the season.  The Cavaliers beat the Toronto Raptors 122-100 on Monday night in a game they virtually led from start to finish.  Cleveland scored a season-high 122 points after shooting an incredible 55.4% (41-74) from the field and 51.5% (17-33) from three-point land.  Cleveland also connected on 88.5% (23-26) of their free throws.  That offensive performance came out of the blue considering the Cavaliers’ offense was mired in a recent slump.  Over their previous five games, Cleveland was shooting just 39.7% from the field and 30.4% from three-point land.

Washington comes into this game off an ugly 97-75 home loss to Miami on Sunday night.  The Wizards scored a season-low 75 points in that game after shooting just 34.1% (31-91) from the field and an embarrassing 13.8% (4-29) from three-point land.  Washington only got to the free throw line a total of 13 times in that game, and that resulted in just 9 points from the stripe.  Washington has had two full days off since that terrible performance, and that has allowed the team to get a bit healthier as Nene is expected to return tonight.  The Wizards beat the Cavaliers in Cleveland 97-85 earlier this season because of their small-ball style of play; they’ll use it once again tonight.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Washington plus the points on Wednesday night.

9* Play WIZARDS (+).

Oklahoma State is 9-4 on the season, but the Cowboys have played nothing in terms of competition.  Their wins have come against the likes of Long Beach State twice, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Tennessee-Martin, Towson, Longwood, UMKC, and TCU.  Oklahoma State is taking a monumental step-up in class against Baylor in this game, and they are doing so without their leading scorer Phil Forte who will likely miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury.  The Cowboys are the Big 12’s least experienced team, and they are trying to mix in junior college transfers.  “Junior college players are always better the second year, drastically better,” Oklahoma State head coach Travis Ford said.  “They develop a little better habits and they have so much of a better understanding.”

Baylor comes into this game off a 102-74 blowout loss at Kansas on Saturday afternoon.  The Jayhawks are the best team in the country, so the loss can be excused.  Baylor returns home while taking a huge step-down in class, so this is a terrific bounce back spot for the Bears.  Baylor is a perfect 10-0 at home where they are averaging 83.2 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land.  Baylor’s defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 60.8 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma State will be playing their first true road game of the season, and it’s simply a terrible spot for a young team.  We’ll lay the points with Baylor in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play BAYLOR (-).

Toronto comes into this game off a home loss to the Chicago Bulls on Sunday afternoon.  The Raptors got out-scored by 8 points in the fourth quarter, and they ultimately lost by 2 points.  Off that disappointing result, we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight, especially since Toronto has played well in the second night of back-to-back games this season.  The Raptors are just 3-4 SU on back-to-back sets, but three of the four losses have come by 5 points or less.  Toronto plays at a slow pace, and they combine that slow tempo with the 11th best defense in terms of efficiency.  Toronto’s defense is holding opponents to just 96.9 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  Toronto also possesses a lock-down defender in DeMarre Carroll; he held LeBron James to just 37.5% (6-16) shooting in the first meeting.  

Cleveland is one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but they haven't been much better than Toronto this season.  The Cavaliers come into this game after playing four consecutive also-rans; the Trail Blazers, Suns, Nuggets, and Magic.  But Cleveland lost to Portland, and they only beat Phoenix and Denver by a combined 10 points.  The Cavaliers have been a dead even team over their last five games as they’ve allowed and given up 91.4 points per game.  Cleveland’s offense is in terrible current from as they are only shooting 39.7% from the field and 30.4% from three-point land over their last five games.  Toronto plays a similar style as Cleveland, so the Cavaliers will have a hard time winning this game by margin.  The Raptors are 10-3 ATS as underdogs this season, so we’ll take the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Philadelphia has been a different team since acquiring point guard Ish Smith in a trade with New Orleans.  The 76ers are 2-2 SU over their last four games, and since Smith has joined the team, Philadelphia’s two losses have come by just 4 and 9 points.  Philadelphia’s chairman of basketball operations Jerry Colangelo had this to say recently: “There’s a different feeling about the team right now.  They really believe they have a chance to win every game they’re going out to play now.  It’s amazing what one addition can make.  In this particular case, Ish has been a great, great addition in terms of raising the bar for all the players.”  Philadelphia played on the same court last night against the Lakers, so they’ve had no travel associated with this game which makes the back-to-back set much easier.

Los Angeles returns home on a 5-game winning streak.  It was the first time in franchise history that the Clippers swept a 5-game road trip.  They completed a trip while playing in four different time zones in six days.  Los Angeles has also been without Blake Griffin as well, so their recent production has come as a surprise.  The Clippers are in a bad scheduling and situational spot tonight after a record breaking trip and just one day off since returning home.  The opponent doesn’t help either, and the fact the Clippers will have three full days off after this game makes it likely they’ll just go thru the motions in this game.  We’ll take the big points with Philadelphia in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play 76ERS (+).

New Mexico comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Lobos are just 1-4 over their last five games, and a major reason for that has been the play of their defense.  New Mexico has been unable to stop their opponents from scoring recently.  Over their last five games, the Lobos have given up 85.4 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field and 43.3% shooting from three-point land.  New Mexico has allowed 70 points or more in nine of their fourteen games this season, and those games have come against an extremely weak slate of opponents.  New Mexico is just 1-5 away from home this season with four of those five losses coming by 5 points or more; their average loss has come by 15.6 points per game.     

Fresno State is finally putting their talent to good use on the court.  The Bulldogs have been an underachieving team over the last couple of seasons, but they are clicking this season.  Fresno State comes into this game with a solid 10-4 record; three of their losses have come on the road.  Fresno State has also played a tough road schedule with games at UNLV, at Arizona, and at Oregon.  They won against UNLV in their last game, and lost the other two games by just 5 and 13 points.  Fresno State is 8-1 at home where they are averaging 75.9 points per game.  The Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 39.8% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Fresno State in this game on Saturday night.            

9* Play FRESNO STATE (-).

Northern Iowa comes in off a 36-point blowout win at home over Bradley.  That was the Panthers’ largest margin of victory in a conference game; the win eclipsed their 34-point win over Bradley back in 2014.  Northern Iowa played their best game of the season as they shot 58.7% (27-46) from the field and 40% (8-20) from three-point land.  It was a total team effort as five players scored 11 points or more.  That win was preceded by an away loss to BYU on a neutral court.  Now the Panthers must hit the road again off a perfect home performance, and they are laying points in a spot that sets them up to regress.  Northern Iowa will be playing their eight road game in their last eleven games, and this will also be their fifth game over a 12-day span.

Southern Illinois has played much better basketball this season; the Salukis come into this game with a solid 12-2 record.  Their two losses this season have come by a combined 7 points.  Southern Illinois returns home off three consecutive road wins, and they are getting no respect as home underdogs in this game.  Southern Illinois won 72-62 at Loyola-Chicago last Wednesday night, and opposing coach Porter Moser had high praise for the Salukis: “They’re a very confident, hard-playing team right now. The physicality they played with. The offensive rebounds, keeping it alive, the blocked shots.”  Southern Illinois’ offense is averaging 78.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field at home this season, and they combine that with a defense that is holding opponents to just 42.3% shooting from the field.  We’ll back Southern Illinois in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (+).

Los Angeles comes into this game on a 4-game winning streak, and three of those four games have come on the road.  The Clippers were technically the road team against the Lakers, but that’s essentially a home game.  Los Angeles’ road trip has been quirky as they started in Utah last Saturday night, played in Washington on Monday night, and then they played in Charlotte last night.  Now they’ll complete the trip in New Orleans tonight while playing in their fourth different time zone in six days; this will also be the Clippers third game in four nights.  Los Angeles has been without Blake Griffin as well, so their recent production is a bit of a surprise.  The Clippers are in a bad scheduling and situational spot tonight after scoring a season-high 122 points last night.  Los Angeles had six players score 11 points or more while shooting 52.1% (37-71) from the field and 50% (15-30) from three-point land.  The Clippers also hit 80.5% (33-41) from the free throw line.  Off such a perfect performance, we expect regression tonight.     

New Orleans has played much better basketball at home than on the road this season.  The Pelicans are 7-6 at home and just 3-15 on the road.  New Orleans returns home off a blowout loss in Orlando, and with two days to prepare for this game, we expect a peak performance by the Pelicans.  New Orleans is finally healthy after playing the early season with a limited team.  The Pelicans are essentially playing .500 basketball (9-10) after beginning the season at 1-11.  New Orleans is averaging 108.9 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Clippers give up 103.1 points per game on the road, so the Pelicans will have offensive success.  We’ll lay the points with New Orleans in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play PELICANS (-).

Michigan State comes into this game as the #1 team in the country with a perfect 13-0 record.  However, the Spartans have played just three solid teams this season; they beat Kansas by 6 points, Louisville by 4 points, and Florida by 6 points.  Michigan State played all three of those games with their best player, Denzel Valentine, and two of those games were at home with another game on a a neutral court.  Valentine is out until mid-January with a knee injury, and the Spartans will play their first true road conference game while missing their most important player.  Valentine was playing 30.6 minutes per game while averaging 19 points per game, collecting eight rebounds per game, and dishing out seven assists per game.  Valentine dominated the ball on offense while accounting for 29.2% of Michigan State’s possessions and taking 30.1% of the shots while grabbing 24.5% of the defensive rebounds.  That’s a lot of production by one player, and his absence tonight will be too much to overcome for the Spartans.

Iowa comes into this game with a 9-3 record, including a perfect 6-0 mark at home.  Their three losses have come by a combined 12 points to good teams like Dayton, Notre Dame, and Iowa State who are a combined 27-6 on the season.  The Hawkeyes are flying well under the radar this season, but they are an experienced team that has a lot of talent.  Iowa starts four seniors, including Jarrod Uthoff who will be a top NBA draft pick.  Iowa is a well-balanced team as they’ve had nine different players reach double figures at least once this season, and five different players have led the team in scoring at least once in 12 games.  “We’re in a good place,” said head coach Fran McCaffery.  “We’re taking care of the ball, our shot selection is good, and our ball movement is good. We have a lot of different guys producing, so ultimately, I feel pretty good.”  Iowa is catching Michigan State at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Hawkeyes in this game on Tuesday night. 

9* Play IOWA (-).

Cleveland comes into this game off back-to-back losses.  The Cavaliers lost at Golden State on Christmas Day, and they lost the following night in Portland by 29 points (105-79).  That blowout loss is easily excusable after the spotlight close loss to the Warriors.  Cleveland now comes into tonight’s game in Phoenix off a day of rest, and we fully expect a peak performance in this game.  “I think the day off yesterday, everybody getting off their feet, kind of refocus and regather themselves I think can help us tonight,” LeBron James said.  Cleveland finally has all of their key pieces back on the court, and off an embarrassing loss to the Trail Blazers, the Cavaliers are primed to blowout a team that is sinking to the bottom pretty quickly.

Phoenix is an absolute mess of a team right now.  The Suns are just 4-11 over their last fifteen games, and they just fired two assistant coaches over the weekend.  Phoenix also lost their best player, Eric Bledsoe, to a torn meniscus for at least six weeks.  Markieff Morris is suspended for throwing a towel at head coach Jeff Hornacek.  The Suns are an extremely fragile team right now, and they are spiraling out of control.  Phoenix has been non-competitive in their recent losses as well with six losses coming by 10 points or more.  The Suns have been held to 96 points or less in three of their last four games.  Cleveland is allowing just 95.3 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field and 33.2% shooting from three-point land.  Phoenix will have a difficult time scoring in this game, especially since the Cavaliers are in a focused spot.  We’ll lay the points with Cleveland in this game on Monday night.

9* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Philadelphia and Phoenix have both had miserable seasons so far.  And with this game being played the night after Christmas, we expect a fast-paced, wide open game with minimal defensive effort.  Philadelphia’s offense plays at the 8th fastest pace in the NBA, and their tempo should only get faster with the reacquisition of point guard Ish Smith who played for the 76ers last season.  Smith should give a nice boost to Philadelphia’s offense, especially tonight against a Phoenix defense that is in terrible current form.  The Suns have allowed 101 points or more in nine of their last ten games.  Over their last five games, Phoenix has allowed 106.2 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land.

Phoenix plays at the third quickest tempo in the NBA.  The Suns’ offense comes into this game off three consecutive poor offensive games at home.  But against a horrendous Philadelphia defense, we expect the Suns to breakout in a major way.  Overall this season, Phoenix is averaging 105.7 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  Philadelphia has played little defense lately, and in fact, the 76ers have given up 100 points or more in ten of their last eleven games.  Over their last five games, Philadelphia is allowing 111.8 points per game on 52.4% shooting from the field and 40.2% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a high-scoring game between the 76ers and Suns on Saturday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Cleveland and Golden State will play for the first time since last year’s Finals which the Warriors won in six games.  That series was basically a team versus one (LeBron James) as the Cavaliers were without Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Timofey Mozgov because of injury.  Inman Shumpert also played with a groin injury, and his defense was clearly down a notch because of it.  Cleveland will have all of their key pieces on the court for this game, and it’s clearly a game they’ve had circled.  “It’s an exciting game,” head coach Dave Blatt said.  “I know everybody is looking forward to it. The significance of the game. There isn’t anybody on our team that doesn’t remember the Finals. I know we’re going down there finally with a full roster.”  Cleveland comes into this game in excellent current form; the Cavs are on a 6-game winning streak, and they are 11-4 over their last 15 games.

Golden State is the best team in the NBA as they bring their incredible 27-1 record into this game.  The Warriors have been steamrolling their opponents while scoring 100 points or more in 27 of 28 games this season.  However, this game against the Cavs presents a challenging assignment for Golden State.  After losing their first game of the season, the Warriors have played three teams that have been struggling mightily.  Golden State had little resistance in those games, and now they’ll be forced to play their A-game against one of the elite teams in the NBA.  LeBron gave Golden State all they wanted all by himself in the Finals, but now he has help all over the court.  We’ll take Cleveland plus the points in this game on Friday night.

10* Play CAVALIERS (+).

Denver is in rebuilding mode this season after letting some of their core veterans go over the summer.  The Nuggets weren’t projected to be much, but they’ve overachieved so far this season.  Denver comes into this game with an 11-17 record which is surprising considering their season wins total was only lined at 26.5 prior to the start of the year.  The Nuggets hosted the Lakers last night and they inexplicably blew a 21-point lead to the worst team in the NBA.  Denver has now lost three straight games while allowing a total of 338 points in those games.  The Nuggets are now playing the following night on the road off a home game, and they are just 1-3 SU in this situation with the three losses coming by 15, 24, and 11 points.  That 24-point loss came on Phoenix back in November.  Denver is also playing their third game in four nights, and they have a shorthanded team with Emmanuel Mudiay, Danilo Gallinari, Jusuf Nurkic out while Jameer Nelson and Gary Harris are battling injuries.             

Phoenix returns home off an ugly 110-89 road loss at Utah on Monday night.  The Suns have been strong when playing at home off a road loss this season; they are 3-1 SU with the three wins coming by 21, 14, and 16 points.  Overall this season, the Suns’ offense is averaging 106.3 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Phoenix will face a poor Denver defense that has given up 109.2 points per game on 48.9% shooting from the field and 40% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Phoenix already owns two wins over Denver by a combined 31 points this season.  We’ll lay the points with the Suns in this game on Wednesday night. 

9* Play SUNS (-).

Dallas played last night in Toronto and they lost 103-99.  However, that game was nowhere as close as the final score indicates.  Dallas never led in the game, and they trailed by 18 points at one time.  The Mavericks were lethargic throughout the game, and they simply played with little energy.  Head coach Rick Carlisle benched his starters in the second half and let the second unit play the majority of the game.  Carlisle ripped into his team after the game: “That first half was embarrassing,” Carlisle said.  “Look, if it’s going to be like that, these guys aren’t going to be Mavericks very long. I can promise you that.”  Dallas went into that game with 3 full days of rest, so they will be ready to bring their best effort tonight despite this being a back-to-back road set.

Brooklyn is one of the worst teams in the NBA.  The Nets come into this game with an 8-20 record, and they are just 1-5 over their last six games.  Brooklyn won 105-102 in Chicago as 10.5-point underdogs on Monday night.  The Nets won that game despite shooting just 45.7% (43-94) from the field, 35% (7-20) from three point land, and making just 12 free throws.  So that win wasn’t a direct result of a good game by Brooklyn, but instead a result of a terrible game played by the Bulls.  Brooklyn’s defense is in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 100 points or more in six straight games, and in nine of their last ten games overall.  Dallas is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Mavericks on Wednesday night.      

9* Play MAVERICKS (-).

Kansas has been one of the best teams in the country this season, both in efficiency metrics and with the eye test.  The Jayhawks have one the best offenses and defenses in the country; they score 1.16 points per 100 possessions and they only allow 0.90 points per 100 possessions.  Kansas also has an effective 60.0% field goal percentage which ranks them #4 in the nation.  The Jayhawks’ offense is simply terrific, and they combine that with a stout defense which allows them to win games by margin.  In fact, Kansas has won all nine of their games by 6 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping +25.9 points per game this season.  Kansas has had this game circled since losing at home versus San Diego State two seasons ago as a 10.5-point favorite.  That loss broke the Jayhawks' 68-game home winning streak against against non-conference opponents.

San Diego State is a shell of the team that beat Kansas two years ago.  The Aztecs played that game with two fifth-year seniors and a fourth-year junior in the starting five.  They brought two more fourth-year juniors off the bench.  Kansas was playing with four freshman and two sophomores in their top seven.  The roles are reversed for this game.  San Diego State now starts two freshmen and a sophomore, and they bring another freshman off the bench.  Kansas starts two seniors and two juniors while their bench is loaded with top recruits.  San Diego State returns one player from last year’s team, and after an ugly 52-45 home loss to Grand Canyon on Friday night, Winston Shepard simply said, “We’re still figuring it out and at some point our talent is going to surpass our challenges and our cohesion.”  The Aztecs also own losses against Arkansas-Little Rock and San Diego this season.  Kansas is simply the superior team in a focused revenge spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Jayhawks in this game on Tuesday night. 

9* Play KANSAS (-).

Portland came into this season as a shell of the team that won 51 games last season.  Their season wins total was virtually cut in half for 2015.  With four of their five starters from last season gone, the Trail Blazers were starting from scratch.  Damian Lillard was the lone leftover from last year’s starting five.  The Trail Blazers have mostly been a two-man team this season with Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  They are averaging over 71 minutes per game and 44.7 points per game between them.  Both will miss tonight’s game in Atlanta after getting injured yesterday in Miami.  The Trail Blazers will not resemble a NBA team tonight, especially since they’ll be playing without a true point guard and only have eight available players.  Portland is playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their fourth consecutive road game in six days. 

Atlanta returns home off back-to-back road wins, and they’ve won three consecutive games after a 3-game losing streak preceded.  The Hawks’ offense comes into this game in terrific current form; Atlanta has scored 339 points in their last three games.  Atlanta shot 52.5% (128-244) from the field in those games, and their scoring ways will continue against a Portland defense that has given up 107.4 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field and 33.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This line has not been adjusted nearly enough for the absence of Lillard and McCollum, so we’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game on Monday night.

9* Play HAWKS (-).

Minnesota is playing excellent basketball right now.  The Timberwolves have won their last two games after going 1-8 over their previous nine games.  Despite losing on the scoreboard, Minnesota was quite competitive in seven of those eight losses.  The Timberwolves lost those seven games by 8 points or less, and that’s meaningful since the pointspread on tonight’s game is posted at +8.  Overall, Minnesota is an incredible 15-2-2 ATS based on tonight’s line in their last nineteen games.  Minnesota has also played better on the road where they are 7-6 compared to 4-10 at home this season.  The Timberwolves own a +3.4 point differential away from while going 9-3 ATS as a road underdog.

Boston comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Celtics have lost three consecutive games, and four of their last five games overall.  Boston’s defense has been awful as they’ve allowed 106.8 points per game over their last five games.  The Celtics have given up 228 points on 47.6% (79-166) shooting from the field and 36.6% (15-41) shooting from three-point land in their last two games.  Boston has sent their opponents to the free throw line a whopping 72 times in their last two games; that’s a direct correlation to poor defensive form.  Boston has won just one of their last seven games by more than 5 points, so they’ve haven’t been winning by margin either.  We’ll take the points with Minnesota in this game on Monday night.      

9* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Tennessee is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Volunteers are in their first year under former Texas head coach Rick Barnes.  He has very little to work with as Tennessee lost their best player last season to the NBA; Josh Richardson averaged 16 points per game.  The Volunteers come into this game with a 5-4 record, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule thus far.  Their five wins have come against N.C. Asheville, Marshall, Gardner-Webb, Army, and Florida Atlantic.  All five of those teams are terrible.  Tennessee has lost to every good team they have played like George Washington, Nebraska, and Butler.  Now they are taking a major step-up in class against Gonzaga, and we fully expect the Volunteers to lose by a double digit margin.

Gonzaga has already lost a pair of home games, but those losses came to Arizona and UCLA.  This game will be played in Seattle, but it’s always a game the Zags take very seriously.  Gonzaga comes in off a perfect prep as they waxed St. Martin’s by 36 points (86-50) after shooting 51.6% (33-64) from the field and 45% (9-20) from three-point land.  They’ll carry momentum into this game, especially on offense since Tennessee plays little defense while playing at a quick pace.  This is a perfect matchup for Gonzaga, and they will dominate the paint with their significant height advantage.  Gonzaga is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Zags on Saturday night.

9* Play GONZAGA (-).

Memphis has changed their philosophy to mimic the current state of the NBA.  The Grizzlies have changed their lineup, so they can play small ball and match the style of play that most teams employ.  “It’s more equal opportunity,” Mike Conley said.  “We’re going to be aggressive.”  Head coach Dave Joerger replaced Zach Randolph and Tony Allen in the starting lineup with Matt Barnes and Courtney Lee in order to get more pace and shooting on the court.  “It’s going to be for a while. Our team’s changing.” Joerger said.  “It’s a different opportunity to do different things.”  In their three games since the change, Memphis has scored 294 points while shooting 50.2% (116-231) from the field.  With the new up-tempo offense, the Memphis defense has struggled; they allowed 101.6 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Dallas comes into this game off an embarrassing 26-point loss in Indiana on Wednesday night.  The Mavericks had their worst offensive game of the season as they scored a season-low 81 points on 36.7% (33-90) shooting from the field and 24.2% (8-33) shooting from three-point land.  Prior to that poor offensive showing, Dallas had scored 104 points or more in four of their previous six games.  Overall this season, the Mavericks are averaging 100.8 points per game.  Dallas has played terrific offense at home recently as they’ve averaged 103.3 points per game in their last three home games.  Dallas’ defense has been in terrible form; they’ve allowed 94 points or more in nine straight games, and 100 points or more in six of those games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Grizzlies and Mavericks on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

South Carolina is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Gamecocks have been able to play at their preferred pace in all nine of their games this season; they’ve scored 76 points or more in every game.  South Carolina will play their first true road game tonight, and they are not going to get to play their style of basketball.  This is simply a bad match-up for the Gamecocks.  Clemson routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions; South Carolina has yet to play in such a game this season.  The slow pace and strong half-court defense of Clemson will be the deciding factors in this game. 

Clemson is 7-3 on the season, and a big part of that success has been the Tigers slow and defensive ways.  Clemson plays at an extremely slow pace while suffocating their opponents with defense in the half court.  The Tigers are allowing just 56.9 points per game on 37.9% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land this season.  Clemson has held all seven of their home opponents to 56 points or less this season.  We expect Clemson to slow this game to a crawl, so we’ll take the points with the Tigers on Friday night. 

9* Play CLEMSON (+).

Mississippi State is in rebuilding mode under new head coach Ben Howland.  The Bulldogs come into this game with a 4-4 SU record on the season, but those wins have come against an extremely soft schedule.  Mississippi State has only played one true road game this season, and that resulted in a 72-67 loss to UMKC in their last game.  Now they are playing on the road once again while stepping way up in class and playing shorthanded.  The Bulldogs will be without Travis Daniels (concussion) who averages 29 minutes and 9.1 points per game.  They may also be without I.J. Ready (turf toe) who averages 31 minutes and 12.4 points per game.  Mississippi State likes to play an up-tempo style of basketball, but so does Florida State and they do it better which makes this game a likely blowout.

Florida State has alternated good and bad years over the past four seasons.  Last year they only won 17 games, but the Seminoles come into this game with a 6-2 SU record, including a perfect 3-0 at home.  Florida State looks to be headed for a 20+ win season, especially since they’ve tightened up their defense.  The Seminoles are only giving up 66.3 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field and 34.8% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Florida State’s offense has been excellent; the Seminoles are averaging 85.4 points per game on 48.9% shooting from the field.  They will now face a terrible Mississippi State defense that is giving up 76.1 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field.  Florida State is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Seminoles in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Memphis has changed their philosophy to mimic the current state of the NBA.  The Grizzlies have changed their lineup, so they can play small ball and match the style of play that most teams employ.  Head coach Dave Joerger replaced Zach Randolph and Tony Allen in the starting lineup with Matt Barnes and Courtney Lee in order to get more pace and shooting on the court.  “It’s going to be for a while. Our team’s changing.” Joerger said.  “It’s a different opportunity to do different things.”  In their two games since the change, Memphis has scored 209 points while shooting 54.2% (84-155) from the field.  With the new up-tempo offense, the Memphis defense is going to struggle, and they’ve been in terrible form recently, allowing 107 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field and 39.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  

Chicago is playing at a much quicker pace this season under new head coach Fred Hoiberg.  The Bulls play at the seventh quickest tempo in the NBA.  That style of play will only be amplified tonight against a Memphis team that made recent changes in their style of play.  Chicago’s offense scored 115 points in their last game, and they’ve scored 98 points or more in four of their last five games.  The Bulls have played terrific offense at home recently as they’ve averaged 98.7 points per game in their last six home games.  Chicago’s defense is giving up 97.5 points per game this season, and they are vulnerable to fast-paced offenses.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Grizzlies and Bulls on Wednesday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Denver and Minnesota just played last Friday night with the Nuggets winning 111-108 at home in overtime.  The Timberwolves actually led that game by 18-points in the second half before melting down and losing in overtime.  Denver was in an excellent scheduling spot for that game as they had two full days of rest prior, and they were off an embarrassing loss in their previous home game.  Still, they were down 18 points despite Minnesota playing in overtime in their previous game.  The Nuggets played last night and they beat Houston 114-108.  However, four guys played 32 minutes or more with two guys playing 37 minutes or more.  Denver has now scored 225 points in their last two games while only shooting 47.6% (80-168) from the field and 35.8% (19-53) from three-point land.  Denver lived at the free throw line in those two home games (46-58), but now on the road they cannot expect to get a favorable whistle.

Minnesota returns home off back-to-back road losses, including the overtime defeat in Denver.  The players are looking to make amends for that 18-point blown lead loss, and tonight’s quick turnaround scheduling spot provides them with that opportunity.  “We know what we did wrong,” Andrew Wiggins said.  “We know how the players want to play, their style of play. So we’re well aware. We’re prepared for the game. We plan on winning this game, so it will feel good after the win.”  Minnesota’s offense comes into this game in terrific current form; the Timberwolves have averaged 108.2 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll lay the points with Minnesota in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Washington is playing at a very quick pace this season, and in fact, the Wizards play at the fifth quickest tempo in the NBA.  That style of play will only be amplified tonight against a Memphis team that made some recent changes in their style of play.  Washington’s offense is in excellent current form; the Wizards have averaged 108 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Washington’s defense has been horrendous during their last five games; they’ve allowed 109.2 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and 45% shooting from three-point land.  The Wizards’ defense has been terrible on the road all season; they give up 104.1 points per game away from home.    

Memphis has changed their philosophy to mimic the current state of the NBA.  The Grizzlies have changed their lineup, so they can play small ball and match the style of play that most teams employ.  Head coach Dave Joerger replaced Zach Randolph and Tony Allen in the starting lineup with Matt Barnes and Courtney Lee in order to get more pace and shooting on the court.  “It’s going to be for a while. Our team’s changing.” Joerger said.  “It’s a different opportunity to do different things.”  Memphis shot 51.9% from the field in their first game with the new lineup, and they scored 78 points in the first three quarters before bogging down over the final 12 minutes.  With the new up-tempo offense, the Memphis defense is going to struggle, and they’ve been in terrible form recently, allowing 106.6 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Wizards and Grizzlies on Monday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Golden State is the best team in the NBA as they bring their perfect 24-0 record into Milwaukee tonight.  The Warriors have been steamrolling their opponents while scoring 100 points or more in every game this season.  However, tonight’s game against the Bucks presents a challenging assignment for Golden State.  The Warriors come into this game off a double overtime win in Boston last night.  Golden State had three players play 43 minutes or more while two guys, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, played 46 minutes or more.  The Warriors were without Klay Thompson (ankle), and he’ll be a game-time decision for tonight’s game.  Golden State is also playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their seventh and final game of their long road trip.  This is simply a terrible scheduling and situational spot for the Warriors.     

Milwaukee comes into this game with a disappointing 9-15 record on the season.  However, the Bucks have played significantly better basketball at home where they are 7-5 SU compared to just 2-10 on the road.  Milwaukee returns home off a road loss in Toronto last night, and since they also lost their previous home game, this is a terrific bounce back spot.  The Bucks have excelled when playing at home off a road loss this season.  Milwaukee is a perfect 4-0 SU, including 3-0 ATS as home underdogs in those games.  The Bucks beat Cleveland and Detroit in this situation, so they’ve shown they can beat some pretty good teams.  We’ll take the points with Milwaukee in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play BUCKS (+).

Oregon comes into this game with a good-looking 7-1 record on the season, but those wins have come against an extremely soft schedule.  The Ducks also began the season with six consecutive home games, and their last two games have come on a neutral court.  Tonight’s game against Boise State will be Oregon’s first true road game of the season, and they’ll be playing this game shorthanded.  The Ducks will be without their leading scorer and top assist guy, Tyler Dorsey, due to a knee injury.  Dorsey is averaging 14.4 points and 2.9 assists per game.  Oregon likes to play an up-tempo style of basketball, but their ability to score easy baskets in transition will be limited without Dorsey on the court.

Boise State has been a terrific team over the last three seasons.  The Broncos have won 21 games or more the last three years, and they are set to eclipse their 25 wins of a season ago.  Boise State is an experienced and veteran team that has an efficient offense and a strong, half-court defense.  The Broncos are just 6-4 on the season, but two of those losses came to Arizona, and another loss came to Michigan State.  Boise State is a much better team than their record indicates, and they are better than Oregon who is 7-1.  The Broncos don’t often get to host a Pac 12 team on their home court, so this is a game that is quite important.  Boise State is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

Portland and Phoenix played twice earlier this season.  Both of those games went Under the total, but tonight’s game has a posted total that is 4.5 points more.  The first two meetings were lined at 204 and 204.5, and despite low-scoring games, the oddsmakers have increased tonight’s total.  That’s a clear indication that they expect a higher-scoring game tonight.  Portland’s offense is in good current form; the Trail Blazers are averaging 106.4 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 40% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Portland’s defense has been terrible over the same stretch; they are giving up 104.8 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land.   

Phoenix plays at the quickest tempo in the NBA.  The Suns’ offense comes into this game in terrific current form.  Phoenix is averaging 106.2 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Suns have scored 103 points or more in seven of their last nine games overall.  Phoenix has played little defense lately, and in fact, the Suns have given up 101 points or more in seven of their last nine games.  Over their last five games, Phoenix is allowing 107.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 39.5% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Trail Blazers and Suns on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Oklahoma City comes into tonight’s game in Utah off back-to-back perfect offensive performances.  The Thunder scored 232 points in those games while shooting 52.4% (86-164) from the field, 51.1% (22-43) from three-point land, and 77.6% (38-49) from the free throw line.  Those two peak offensive performances against Memphis and Atlanta set Oklahoma City up in a letdown spot tonight, especially since they are back on the road.  The Thunder played in Memphis on Tuesday night and at home against the Hawks last night.  Now they must hit the road again on a back-to-back set while playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  This will also be Oklahoma City’s third game in four nights and their fourth game in six nights.    

Utah plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, and they combine that slow tempo with a strong and efficient defense.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when they are playing against a team that likes to play at a crisp offensive pace.  Utah’s defense is holding opponents to just 96.2 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 36.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Jazz are also 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season, and the combination of Utah’s slow pace and good defense will keep them in this game against Oklahoma City.  We’ll take the points with Utah on Friday night.

9* Play JAZZ (+).

New York comes into this game in Sacramento on a 3-game losing streak, and they’ve lost seven of their last nine games overall.  The Knicks’ defense has been atrocious during that stretch as they’ve given up 100 points or more in five of those games.  New York’s offense has also played poorly as they are only averaging 96 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  However, Carmelo Anthony voiced his displeasure of New York’s pace of play according to reports.  He did so behind closed doors to the team and coaches with one source reporting that he said the team was “stuck in the half court.”  The Knicks get the right opponent tonight to play at a much quicker pace, so we expect to see a different New York offense in this game. 

Sacramento plays at a quick pace; the Kings play at the second fastest tempo in the NBA.  The Kings are averaging 105.2 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land this season.  Sacramento’s defense comes into this game in poor current form.  The Kings have allowed 107.2 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Sacramento has given up 98 points or more in nine consecutive games while allowing 101 points or more in seven of those nine games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Knicks and Kings on Thursday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.