Cleveland comes into tonight’s game at Golden State on their final leg of a 6-game road trip.  The Cavaliers snapped a 2-game losing streak with a 120-108 win in Sacramento on Friday night.  Cleveland was scheduled to give their big three (LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love) this game off for rest, but now they are playing.  There’s reason to believe Cleveland was told to play their guys by the league, and if so, the team could mail this game in to spite that order.  This is also a bad scheduling and situational spot for Cleveland.  As mentioned above, they are on the end of a long trip while playing against an elite opponent that is well-rested and extremely focused on this game.

Golden State is 34-6 SU, including 18-3 on their home court this season.  The Warriors are in excellent current form; they are 7-1 in their last eight games with their lone loss coming in overtime after blowing an 18-point lead with less than 8 minutes to play.  Golden State’s other seven wins came by an average of 11.1 points per game.  The Warriors come into this game on three full days of rest, so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for Cleveland.  Golden State has had this game circled since losing 109-108 to the Cavaliers on Christmas day.  The Warriors led that game by 14 points in the fourth quarter on Cleveland’s home court; don’t expect that to happen at home.  Golden State is averaging 120.9 points per game on 51.5% shooting from the field and 41.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is a much bigger game for Golden State than Cleveland, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Texas Tech is having a much better season than expected under new head coach Chris Beard.  The Red Raiders come into tonight’s game at Oklahoma with a 13-3 SU record.  However, Texas Tech is just 1-2 SU in true road games, including 0-2 in conference road games.  The Red Raiders’ wins have mostly come against inferior teams like Houston Baptist, North Texas, Eastern Kentucky, Idaho State, Incarnate Word, Nicholls State, and Longwood just to name a few.  Texas Tech’s defense has given up 220 total points in their three true road games this season.  Overall, the Red Raiders’ defense is allowing 73.3 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field away from home this season.

Oklahoma is desperate for a win after losing their last seven games.  However, the Sooners played a brutal schedule during that stretch with games against Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Wichita State, and Wisconsin.  The Sooners were also playing short-handed as leading scorer Jordan Woodard missed most of those games with an injury.  He returned for Oklahoma’s last game, and all reports indicate he’s back to full strength.  Oklahoma also has Kameron McGusty back on the court fully healthy: “I'm 100 percent and have come back to my quick first step and being able to move and be active on the ball.”  Oklahoma’s recent losing streak can easily be forgiven, and we expect their best game in a long while.  We’ll back the Sooners in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play OKLAHOMA (+).

UCLA comes into tonight’s game with an impressive 17-1 SU record, and the Bruins certainly look like one of the most talented team in the country.  However, UCLA is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Utah.  The Bruins just won 104-89 at Colorado on Thursday night.  Now they are on the dreaded back-to-back altitude road set, and Pac 12 teams have been awful in this situation over the last few years.  UCLA also played one of their best offensive games of the season in Colorado while scoring 104 points on 56.5% (35-62) shooting from the field and 61.3% (19-31) shooting from three-point land.  The Bruins will be hard-pressed to match that production, especially considering the poor scheduling spot they are in.

Utah is 12-4 SU on the season, including 9-1 on their home court.  Their lone home loss came to Butler in an extremely slow-paced game.  The Utes are playing at a much faster pace this season, so they will definitely get their preferred pace against an up-tempo UCLA team.  Utah owns an incredible +17.1 point differential at home this season.  The Utes are averaging 83.9 points per game on 50.3% shooting from the field at home this season.  Utah’s defense is holding their opponents to just 66.8 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Utah’s biggest game of the season to date, so we’ll back the Utes in this game on Saturday night.          

9* Play UTAH (+).

Oklahoma City comes into tonight’s game in Minnesota on a 3-game winning streak.  However, this is a bad scheduling and situational spot for Oklahoma City.  The Thunder’s winning streak began with a 121-106 home win over Denver after losing three straight games on the road.  They hit the road in their next game and won 109-94 in Chicago.  Oklahoma City played their last game at home, and that resulted in a 103-95 win over Memphis on national TV.  Now the Thunder will hit the road once again; this will be their eight road game in their last twelve games overall.  Prior to their last road win, Oklahoma City had gone 1-4 SU in their previous five road games while giving up 113.3 points per game in their four losses.

Minnesota is playing good basketball right now.  The Timberwolves are just 7-8 SU over their last fifteen games, but seven of their eight losses have come by 7 points or less with five of those losses coming by 4 points or less; their average loss has come by just 4.6 points per game.  Minnesota just snapped Houston’s 9-game winning streak with a dominating 119-105 win on Wednesday night, and we expect another strong performance tonight against the Thunder.  Minnesota’s offense has been much better at home this season.  The Timberwolves are averaging 104.9 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land.  This is a flat spot for Oklahoma City, so we’ll take Minnesota plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Washington State has a winning 9-6 SU record on the season, but the Cougars are not a very good team.  Washington State’s wins have mostly come against inferior teams like Montana State, Central Washington, Montana, Utah Valley, and Sacramento State to name a few.  The Cougars are 2-1 SU in conference play, but one of those wins came unexpectedly as 12.5-point road underdogs at in-state rival Washington.  Washington State’s other conference win came against Oregon State who is one of the worst teams in the Pac 12.  The Cougars’ defense has given up 247 total points in three true road games this season.  Overall, Washington State’s defense is allowing 74 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field away from home this season.

Stanford is desperate for a win after losing their last four games.  However, the Cardinal played four of the best teams in the conference in those games, so the losses were not unexpected.  Stanford also lost leading scorer Reid Travis to a shoulder injury two games ago, so the team was  also learning to play without him.  Stanford returns home off back-to-back road losses, and since they also lost their last two home games, we expect a peak performance tonight by the Cardinal.  Stanford’s offense has scored 79 points or more in three of their last four home games, and they get an easy matchup tonight against Washington State’s poor defense.  Stanford’s defense is also taking a major step-down in offensive class, so expect that unit to play one of their best games of the season.  We’ll lay the points with the Cardinal in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play STANFORD (-).

Butler is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at Creighton.  The Bulldogs beat #1 Villanova 66-58 as home underdogs last Wednesday night, and then they were extremely fortunate in winning at Georgetown as road favorites in overtime on Saturday afternoon.  Butler trailed that game with just 9 seconds to play before forcing overtime.  So off back-to-back big games, the Bulldogs will be on the road once again while stepping up in class from their last game.  Butler shot 50% (10-20) from three-point land against Georgetown, and they still needed overtime to win.  The Bulldogs were also +10 points (25-15) from the free throw line in that game.  That’s a bad sign for Butler heading into this game, so we expect a clunker from the Bulldogs tonight.

Creighton returns home off back-to-back road wins at St. John’s and at Providence.  The Bluejays are 15-1 SU on the season, including 9-1 on their home court.  Creighton’s lone home loss came in their last home game against Villanova, so we expect a strong bounce back effort in front of their fans tonight.  Creighton’s offense has been terrific at home this season as they are averaging 84.8 points per game on 52.8% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land.  Creighton is catching Butler at the perfect time, and we expect a statement win by the Bluejays, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play CREIGHTON (-).

Houston comes into tonight’s game in Minnesota on a 9-game winning streak.  However, this is a terrible scheduling and situational spot for Houston.  The Rockets played at home last night and they beat Charlotte 121-114.  Houston expended a lot of energy in winning that game.  The Rockets had four of their five starters play 32 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 35 minutes or more.  Houston’s bench also had two reserves play 20 minutes or more.  Overall, six players scored in double digits while the team shot 48.8% (40-82) from the field and 43.6% (17-39) from three-point land.  Houston’s offense has scored 250 points in their last two games, but that isn’t sustainable, especially on a back-to-back set with travel while also playing their third game in four days.

Minnesota is playing good basketball right now.  The Timberwolves are just 6-8 SU over their last fourteen games, but seven of their eight losses have come by 7 points or less with five of those losses coming by 4 points or less; their average loss has come by just 4.6 points per game.  Minnesota gave Houston all they could handle in their last meeting; the Timberwolves lost by just 2 points in overtime.  Minnesota’s offense has been much better at home this season.  The Timberwolves are averaging 104.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  This is a flat spot for Houston, so we’ll take Minnesota plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Mississippi State is having a good season so far as they come into tonight’s game at Arkansas with a 10-4 record.  The Bulldogs played their best game of the season on Saturday afternoon when they beat LSU 95-78.  Mississippi State shot an incredible 54.1% (33-61) from the field and 50% (11-22) from three-point land.  Five players scored in double digits while nine players overall scored points in the game.  That performance was in stark contrast to their previous game where they scored just 58 points in a 10-point home loss to Alabama.  Three of Mississippi State’s four losses this season have come by 10 points or more, and tonight they will face the best team they’ve seen so far this season. 

Arkansas is 12-3 SU, including 9-1 at home this season.  The Razorbacks return home off back-to-back road games with their last being an ugly 97-71 loss at Kentucky.  Arkansas also lost their previous home game, so we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  The Razorbacks have been terrific at home where they own a +13.8 point differential on the season.  Arkansas’ offense is averaging 83.7 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land.  Arkansas’ defense is holding opponents to 69.9 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with the Razorbacks in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play ARKANSAS (-).

Boston and Toronto match-up well for a high-scoring game on Tuesday night.  The Celtics’ offense has been on a roll over their last eleven games; Boston scored 105 points or more in every one of those games.  Over their last five games, the Celtics’ offense has averaged 115.4 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field and 47.2% shooting from three-point land.  However, as good as their offense has been, their defense has been bad.  The Celtics have allowed 102 points or more in ten consecutive games.  Over their last five games, Boston’s defense has given up 111.2 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land.

Toronto is playing a quicker style of basketball this season; they’ve shown a willingness to run against up-tempo opponents.  That will be the case tonight against Boston, especially since the Raptors know they’ll need to have a strong offensive game to defeat the red-hot Celtics.  Toronto has averaged 109.2 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 36.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Raptors’ defense has been awful over their last five games while giving up 113.8 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 40.1% shooting from three point land.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Celtics and Raptors on Tuesday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

NC State is having a good season as they come into today’s game at in-state rival North Carolina with a 12-3 record.  The Wolfpack played their best game of the season on Wednesday night when they beat Virginia Tech 104-78.  However, NC State caught the Hokies off their blowout win of Duke, so they were ripe for the picking.  The Wolfpack shot an incredible 64.1% (41-64) from the field with three players scoring 20 points or more.  That performance was in stark contrast to their previous game where they scored just 63 points in an 18-point road loss at Miami, FL.  In fact, NC State is 0-2 in true road games this season while losing by 18 and 14 points against lesser teams than they’ll face today. 

North Carolina is 13-3 SU, including a perfect 7-0 at home this season.  The Tar Heels haven’t played their best basketball in their last two games, but both of those games were on the road.  With a return home, we expect a peak performance by the Tar Heels today.  North Carolina has been incredible at home where they own a whopping +27.6 point differential on the season.  The Tar Heels’ offense is averaging 89.7 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field.  North Carolina will now face a NC State defense that is giving up 84.5 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field and 41% shooting from three-point land on the road.  North Carolina’s defense is holding opponents to just 62.1 points per game on 37% shooting from the field and 26.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with the Tar Heels in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

Butler comes into today’s game at Georgetown after beating #1 Villanova 66-58 on Wednesday night.  We had a Best Bet winner on Butler in that game, and we have no hesitation in playing against the Bulldogs off that win.  Butler trailed 31-27 at the half, but they played ferocious defense in the second half while holding the potent Villanova offense to just 27 points.  Butler’s defense held the Wildcats to just 37.3% (19-51) shooting from the field and 23.1% (6-26) shooting from three-point land.  That win by the Bulldogs was not surprising at all because they match-up extremely well versus Villanova.  Butler plays at a slow pace, and their style simply frustrates an up-tempo offense.  That won’t be the case against Georgetown in this game as the Hoyas also prefer to play slow, half-court basketball.

Georgetown is just 8-7 SU, but five of their wins have come on their home court.  The Hoyas return home off a 76-70 road loss at Providence, and they also lost their last home game to Xavier as 3.5-point underdogs.  Georgetown is in a prime situational spot today, so we expect a peak performance.  The Hoyas’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 67.6 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 31.1% shooting from three-point land.  Georgetown’s offense is averaging 83 points per game on 49.3% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  Georgetown has a lot of motivation today, so we’ll back the Hoyas in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play GEORGETOWN (+).

Houston comes into tonight’s game in Orlando on a 6-game winning streak.  However, this is a bad scheduling and situational spot for Houston.  The Rockets played at home last night and they beat Oklahoma City 118-116 in a spotlight national TV game.  Houston expended a lot of energy in winning that game.  The Rockets had four of their five starters play 31 minutes or more with two of those guys playing 35 minutes or more.  Houston’s bench also had two reserves play 28 minutes or more.  Overall, six players scored in double digits while the team shot 47.7% (41-86) from the field.  Houston’s offense has scored 118 points or more in six of their last eight games, but that isn’t sustainable, and we expect major regression tonight against the Magic. 

Orlando lost at home to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night.  The Magic will play once again on their home court before embarking on a 6-game West Coast road trip on Sunday.  This is an important game for the Magic, so we know we’ll get their best effort after losing their last two home games.  Orlando’s offense is in good current form, and that’s important when facing a potent offense like Houston.  Over their last five games, the Magic are averaging 104.8 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.  Orlando has scored 101 points or more in six of their last seven games overall.  This is a flat spot for Houston, so we’ll take Orlando plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play MAGIC (+).

Minnesota comes into this game off back-to-back draining overtime games.  The Gophers came up short in a 75-74 home loss to Michigan State before bouncing back with a 91-82 win at Purdue as 13.5-point underdogs.  Minnesota will now play back-to-back road games for the first time this season, and off their last two big efforts, we expect regression tonight.  Minnesota is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Gophers tend to struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, so this is not a good match-up for them at all.  Northwestern routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Minnesota will be put out of their comfort zone.

Northwestern is having a terrific season, and they’ll be on the verge of getting their elusive ticket to the Big Dance in March.  This is an important conference game for the Wildcats, especially since they are back home off a 61-52 loss at Michigan State.  Northwestern’s other two losses this season have come against Butler by 2 points and to Notre Dame by 4 points.  Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Wildcats only give up 62.7 points per game on 38% shooting from the field and 30.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Northwestern is simply the better team, and since they are off a loss, we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats on Thursday night. 

10* Play NORTHWESTERN (-).

Atlanta is off back-to-back big performances.  The Hawks beat San Antonio 114-112 in overtime last Sunday night, and then they won in Orlando 111-92 last night.  Atlanta’s offense was terrific in both of those games as they shot 49.7% (86-173) from the field and 51.1% (24-47) from three-point land against the Spurs and Magic.  The 225 total points scored by the Hawks in those two games was their third best 2-game performance of the season.  After coming off back-to-back strong offensive games, Atlanta’s offense has regressed this season as they’ve scored less than 100 points in two qualifying games.

New Orleans is finally playing with a healthy roster.  The Pelicans struggled mightily early on, but their play as of late has been fantastic.  New Orleans comes into tonight’s game off a 90-82 loss in Cleveland on Monday night.  The Pelicans are still 5-2 SU over their last seven games, including 4-1 SU on their home court during that stretch.  New Orleans’ offense has been much better at home this season.  The Pelicans are averaging 106.1 points per game on 45% shooting from the field at home.  New Orleans has scored 100 points or more in eleven of their last thirteen games overall.  This is a flat spot for Atlanta, so we’ll back New Orleans in this game on Thursday night.     

9* Play PELICANS (-).

Oklahoma State has a good looking 10-3 SU record on the season, but the Cowboys have played a very easy schedule so far.  Oklahoma State’s opponents include Campbell, Central Arkansas, New Orleans, Rogers State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and Texas A&M CC.  Those teams account for six of their ten wins this season.  Overall, Oklahoma State’s offense is averaging 91.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land.  But those numbers have a lot to do with the inferior opponents they’ve played.  The Cowboys will now face a real defense in Texas tonight, and we expect Oklahoma State to have their worst offensive game of the season.       

Texas is just 6-7 SU, but all six of their wins have come on their home court.  The Longhorns return home off a 65-62 road loss at Kansas State, and they also lost their last home game to Kent State as 12.5-point favorites.  Texas is in a prime situational spot tonight, so we expect a peak performance.  The Longhorns’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 64 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 27.1% shooting from three-point land.  Texas’ offense is averaging 75.8 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field at home.  Texas has a lot of motivation tonight, so we’ll back the Longhorns in this game on Wednesday night.       

9* Play TEXAS (+).

Villanova is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Butler ranked #1 with a perfect 14-0 record.  However, the Wildcats will face a stiff challenge tonight in the Bulldogs.  Villanova has been unable to beat Butler by margin over the last three years.  They’ve won all three games but the scores were 76-73 in overtime, 60-55, and 68-65.  Butler is simply a bad matchup for Villanova because of the way the Wildcats play.  Villanova wants to get out and run in transition, but Butler has forced them into half-court games in the last three meetings.  Villanova’s inability to play their style of basketball has limited their effectiveness against Butler, and we expect that to be the case once again tonight. 

Butler is 12-2 SU, including a perfect 8-0 at home this season.  Butler’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 61 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land.  Butler’s offense has been excellent at home where they are averaging 81.5 points per game on 52.5% shooting from the field and 39.7% shooting form three-point land.  Villanova’s defense has been worse on the road this season; they are allowing 67.7 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field.  Butler is extremely tough to beat on their home court, and since they matchup well against Villanova, we’ll back the Bulldogs in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play BUTLER (+).

North Carolina opened conference play with an ugly 75-63 loss at Georgia Tech on Saturday afternoon.  The Tar Heels played their worst game of the season while shooting just 33.3% (24-72) from the field and 19.2% (5-26) from three-point land.  North Carolina was also quite sloppy with the ball as they committed 20 turnovers while only getting to the free throw line 14 times.  North Carolina’s players admitted they took their opponent for granted: “It was a bigger game for them,” Joel Berry said.  “We thought that we were going to come in here and just win because it’s Georgia Tech.”  Off such an embarrassing performance, we expect North Carolina to bounce back with a strong effort just like they’ve done all season.  In two games following a loss this season, the Tar Heels are a perfect 2-0 while winning those games by 45 and 43 points.

Clemson comes into tonight’s game with an impressive 11-2 SU record.  However, the Tigers have played an exceptionally easy schedule with their toughest opponent being Xavier; Clemson lost that game 83-77.  Clemson was trailing Wake Forest by 10 points with less than 5 minutes to play in their last game before ending the game on a 15-0 run for the comeback win.  That’s not a good sign heading into this game against North Carolina, especially since Clemson is taking a monumental step-up in class.  Clemson has solid seasonal numbers on defense, but they’ve played a schedule loaded with mediocre offenses.  Now they will face one of the best offensive teams in the country, and they are catching them off an ugly offensive performance.  North Carolina will have too much offense for Clemson, so we’ll back the Tar Heels in this game on Tuesday night.       

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

New Orleans is finally playing with a healthy roster.  The Pelicans struggled mightily early on, but their play as of late has been fantastic.  New Orleans comes into tonight’s game in Cleveland on a 4-game winning streak, and they’ve won five of their last six games overall.  The Pelicans’ offense is in excellent current form.  Over their last five games, the Pelicans have averaged 103.6 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land.  New Orleans has scored 100 points or more in eleven of their last twelve games overall.

Cleveland is off back-to-back big performances.  The Cavaliers beat Boston 124-118 last Thursday night, and then they won in Charlotte 121-109 last Saturday night.  Cleveland’s offense was terrific in both of those games as they shot 51.2% (86-168) from the field and 40.6% (28-69) from three-point land against the Celtics and Hornets.  The Cavaliers also got to the free throw line 58 times in those two games.  LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving combined to score 85 points against Boston.  James and Love combined to score 60 points against Charlotte.  Irving missed that game with a hamstring injury, and he’s questionable to play tonight.  This is a flat spot for Cleveland, so we’ll take the points with New Orleans in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play PELICANS (+).

Baylor comes into tonight’s game with a perfect 12-0 record, and the Bears have certainly earned some of those wins.  Baylor has already beaten Oregon, VCU, Michigan State, Louisville, and Xavier; no team in the country has a better resume right now.  However, Baylor has played cupcakes in their last three games, so they’ve had no competition heading into conference play.  Baylor is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, the Bears are not going to get their preferred pace in this game against Oklahoma.  Baylor has scored 76 points or more in six straight games, but that streak is in jeopardy tonight.  The Bears will also be playing their first true road game of the season, and that makes this is a prime spot to play against them.

Oklahoma has struggled to a 6-5 SU record so far this season, but the Sooners have been a competitive bunch.  Four of Oklahoma’s five losses have come by 6 points or less with two of those defeats coming in overtime.  Oklahoma is 4-1 at home where they own a +17.2 point differential this season.  The Sooners are averaging 88.4 points per game on 50% shooting from the field and 41.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  Oklahoma’s defense is holding their opponents to a solid 42% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Oklahoma’s biggest game of the season to date, so we’ll back the Sooners in this game on Friday night.          

9* Play OKLAHOMA (+).

Dallas will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home and losing 123-107 to Houston on Tuesday night.  The Mavericks went into that home game off a 4-game road trip, and in fact, Dallas had played five of their previous six games on the road.  They are now in a terrible scheduling spot since they are back on the road once again while changing time zones.  Dallas’ defense comes into this game in poor current form.  Over their last two games, the Mavericks have given up 234 total points while allowing their opponents to shoot 52.7% (78-148) from the field and 50.9% (29-57) from three-point land.  They also let the Pelicans and Rockets get to the free throw line 58 times.  That’s clearly a sign that their defense is in poor form right now.

Los Angeles will play their third consecutive home game after recently completing a 7-game East Coast road trip.  The Lakers lost their last home 102-100 to Utah, and they’ve had a day off since, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance, especially since they have much tougher opponents on deck.  Los Angeles’ offense has been much better at home this season; the Lakers are averaging 109.3 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Los Angeles in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play LAKERS (-).

UCLA comes into tonight’s game with a perfect 13-0 record, and the Bruins certainly look like one of the most talented team in the country.  UCLA is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, the Bruins are not going to get their preferred pace in this game against Oregon.  UCLA has scored 82 points or more in twelve of their thirteen games, but their point total tonight is going to be significantly lower.  The Bruins have faced a slew of teams that prefer up-tempo basketball, but that won’t be the case tonight against Oregon who plays a much slower, physical style of basketball while playing ferocious defense.  UCLA will also be playing just their second true road game of the season which makes this is a prime spot to play against them

Oregon is 11-2 on the season.  The Ducks are a perfect 8-0 at home; they've won 33 consecutive games on their home court.  Oregon owns an incredible +20.7 point differential at home this season.  The Ducks are averaging 83.4 points per game on 49.8% shooting from the field at home this season.  Oregon’s defense is holding their opponents to just 62.7 points per game on 36.4% shooting from the field and 26.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Oregon’s biggest game of the season to date, so we’ll back the Ducks in this game on Wednesday night.          

9* Play OREGON (+).

Los Angeles will hit the road after losing at home to the Denver Nuggets on Monday night.  The Clippers come into tonight’s game in New Orleans on a 3-game losing streak as they are playing without Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and J.J. Redick.  Los Angeles has only scored 292 total points in their last three games, and unless their reserves play way above normal, the Clippers’ offense will continue to struggle without their best offensive players on the court.  Without their top three players on the court, Los Angeles is missing 54.2 points per game.  That’s 50% of their overall scoring average.  The Clippers’ defense is giving up 104.2 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 37.4% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.   

New Orleans is finally playing with a healthy roster.  The Pelicans struggled mightily early on, but their play as of late has been fantastic.  New Orleans is 3-1 SU over their last four games, and their offense comes into this game in excellent current form.  Over their last five games, the Pelicans have averaged 104 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 44% shooting from three-point land.  The Pelicans’ offense has been good at home where they are averaging 106.4 points per game on 45% shooting from the field.  We’ll lay the points with New Orleans in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play PELICANS (-).

Boston will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home and losing 117-112 to Oklahoma City on Friday night.  The Celtics went into that game off a 3-game road trip, and in fact, Boston had played twelve of their previous sixteen games on the road.  They are now in a terrible scheduling spot since they are back on the road once again.  Boston’s defense comes into this game in poor current form.  Over their last three games, the Celtics have given up 328 total points while allowing their opponents to get to the free throw line a whooping 91 times.  That’s clearly a sign that their defense is in poor form right now.

New York will play their third consecutive home game after recently completing a 5-game West Coast road trip.  The Knicks won both of those games while scoring 224 total points.  New York has had two full days off since, so they’ll be ready for another peak performance, especially since they are looking to atone for an embarrassing 28 point loss (115-87) in Boston earlier this season.  New York’s offense has been much better at home this season; the Knicks are averaging 106.4 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take the points with New York in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play KNICKS (+).

Miami will hit the road after beating the Los Angeles Lakers 115-107 last night.  The Heat shot the lights out against the Lakers.  Miami shot 53.6% (45-84) from the field and 50% (11-22) from three-point land.  Three players scored 21 points or more while five players scored 14 points or more.  Miami also had a strong offensive game in their previous outing when they scored 130 points on 46.3% (50-108) shooting from the field and 40% (12-30) shooting from three-point land.  Miami has played six straight home games, so this will be their first road game in thirteen days.  That puts them in a terrible scheduling spot for tonight’s game, especially since they’ve played back-to-back above normal offensive games.

New Orleans will play just their second home game over the last eight days.  The Pelicans have played a brutal schedule recently with games against the Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, and Thunder.  Tonight’s game against Miami is a major step-down in class for New Orleans, so we expect a peak performance by the Pelicans.  New Orleans had last night off, so they’ll be ready, especially since they lost their last home game to Oklahoma City.  The Pelicans’ offense has been much better at home where they are averaging 107.1 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field.  We’ll lay the points with New Orleans in this game on Friday night.     

9* Play PELICANS (-).

Sacramento will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home to beat Portland 126-121 last night.  The Kings went into that game off a 3-game road trip, and in fact, Sacramento had played nine of their previous eleven games on the road.  They are now in a terrible scheduling spot since they are back on the road once again while playing on a back-to-back set in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  The Kings exerted a lot of energy in their comeback win last night, and in fact, four players logged 29 minutes or more.  Their best player, DeMarcus Cousins, played over 40 minutes while scoring 55 points.  Overall, Sacramento shot 55.6% (40-72) from the field and 43.5% (10-23) from three-point land.  The King’s offense is unlikely to match that production tonight since they only average 99.3 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land on the road. 

Utah also played last night, but they got embarrassed by 30 points (104-74) by the Golden State Warriors.  Off that woeful performance, we expect the Jazz to bounce back strong tonight, especially since they’ll be playing at home where they are 10-5 SU on the season.  As noted above, Utah is catching Sacramento at the perfect time, and it doesn’t hurt that the Kings are just 5-11 SU on the road this season.  Utah’s offense has been much better at home this season; the Jazz are averaging 101.1 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land.  Utah just beat Sacramento 104-84 eleven days ago in a similar situation, so we’ll lay the points with the Jazz in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play JAZZ (-).

Kentucky comes into tonight’s game with a 10-1 record, and the Wildcats certainly look like the most talented team in the country.  Kentucky is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, the Wildcats are not going to get their preferred pace in this game against their in-state rival.  Kentucky has scored 87 points or more in ten of their eleven games, but their point total tonight is going to be significantly lower.  The Wildcats just scored 103 points on North Carolina on Saturday, but the Tar Heels are also a team that prefers an up-tempo game.  That won’t be the case tonight against Louisville who plays a slow, physical style of basketball while playing ferocious defense.  Kentucky is also playing their third consecutive road game tonight which makes this is a prime spot to play against them

Louisville is also 10-1 on the season.  The Cardinals will be playing their fourth consecutive home game, so they definitely have the scheduling advantage over Kentucky.  Louisville is a perfect 7-0 at home where they play a sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents.  They’ve held all seven of their home opponents to 71 points or less as they tend to control tempo on their strong home court.  Louisville’s defense is holding their opponents to just 57.6 points per game on 32.9% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Louisville’s biggest game of the season to date, so we’ll back the Cardinals in this game on Wednesday night.          

9* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

Indiana will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home to beat Washington 107-105 last night.  The Pacers went into that game off a 3-game road trip, and in fact, Indiana had played eight of their previous ten games on the road.  They are now in a terrible scheduling spot since they are back on the road once again while playing on a back-to-back set.  Indiana had all five starters play 30 minutes or more last night, and three of those guys played 37 minutes or more.  The Pacers got a complete team effort as they shot 47.1% (41-87) from the field with three players scoring 20 points or more while six players scored 10 points or more.  Indiana’s offense is unlikely to match that production tonight, and since their defense gives up 111.1 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field on the road, that makes this a difficult game for them to win. 

New York recently completed a 5-game West Coast road trip before retuning home to begin a 3-game homestand tonight.  The Knicks have had two full days off since, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance, especially since they are off an embarrassing 127-114 loss in Denver against the Nuggets.  The Knicks also lost their last home game before the road trip, so tonight’s game is quite important to them.  And as noted above, they are catching Indiana at the perfect time.  New York’s offense has been much better at home this season; the Knicks are averaging 105.5 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field at home.  Derrick Rose is slated to return as well, so that’s another positive for the Knicks.  We’ll lay the points with New York in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play KNICKS (-).

Middle Tennessee State comes into this game with a 10-1 record, but their lone loss did come against an inferior Tennessee State team.  The Blue Raiders upset Michigan State in the NCAA tournament last season, and they return just about everybody from that team.  There’s no doubt that Middle Tennessee State is a very good team, but this is a terrible scheduling spot for them, especially against a very good VCU team.  The Blue Raiders will be playing their third game in nine days with two of those games coming on the road.  This will also be their fourth true road game in their last five games, and their seventh away game in their last eight games overall.

Virginia Commonwealth snapped a 2-game losing streak with a 67-64 win at Old Dominion last Saturday.  The Rams return home for this game; they lost their last home game in overtime to Georgia Tech.  VCU has had a week to prepare for this game, so we expect a peak performance on their home court tonight.  The Rams won 62-56 at Middle Tennessee State as 4.5-point favorites last season, so the fact they are laying a point less at home to the same team doesn’t make much sense.  VCU owns a strong +15.6 point differential at home where they are averaging 78.8 points per game on 52% shooting from the field and 41% shooting from three-point land.  This game will be close for awhile, but we expect VCU to wear down Middle Tennessee State and win by a comfortable margin in the end.

9* Play VCU (-).

This game will be played on a neutral floor, so neither team will have the home court edge, but Northwestern will have the crowd edge.  Dayton is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Flyers tend to struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, so this is not a good match-up for them at all.  Northwestern routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Dayton will be put out of their comfort zone.  The Flyers have scored less than 70 points in two games so far this season, and they’ve gone 1-1 SU in those games.  In the game they won, Dayton shot just 40.7% (22-54) from the field and 27.3% (6-22) from three-point land, so they were extremely fortunate in getting that win.  

Northwestern is having a terrific season, and they’ll be on the verge of getting their elusive ticket to the Big Dance in March.  This is an important out-of-conference for the Wildcats in that regard, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  Northwestern has two losses by a combined 6 points on the season; they lost at Butler by 2 points and lost to Notre Dame by 4 points on a neutral court.  Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Wildcats only give up 63.4 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land.  We expect Northwestern to slow this game to a crawl, so we’ll back the Wildcats on Saturday night. 

9* Play NORTHWESTERN (+).

Sacramento and Memphis match-up well for a high-scoring game on Friday night.  The Kings’ offense was terrible in their last game as they only shot 42.4% (39-92) from the field and 34.4% (11-32) from three-point land.  However, DeMarcus Cousins did not play in that game due to rest, but he will return to the court tonight.  Sacramento’s offense will bounce back strong tonight against a Memphis defense that has been extremely fortunate recently.  The Grizzlies just faced Cleveland without LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.  Sacramento’s offense is in good current form; the Kings are averaging 103.6 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games. 

Memphis is playing a quicker style of basketball this season; they’ve shown a willingness to run against up-tempo opponents.  That will be the case tonight against Sacramento, especially since the Grizzlies know they’ll need to have a strong offensive game to defeat the offensive-minded Kings.  Memphis is quietly averaging 97.4 points per game this season.  The Kings are giving up 105.3 points per game on 45.2% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three point land on the road, so Memphis’ offense will take advantage of that poor defense.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Kings and Grizzlies on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Portland will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home to beat a short-handed Oklahoma City team 114-95 on Tuesday night.  The Trail Blazers were in a terrible scheduling spot going into that game with the Thunder; Portland was playing on a back-to-back set after just completing a 5-game road trip, and they were also playing their fourth game in six nights and their sixth game in nine nights while crossing multiple time zones.  Despite all that, Portland had plenty in the tank for that spotlight game.  However, off their recent schedule and that win, and now traveling once again into the thin air and altitude of Denver, this is a horrendous spot for Portland.  The Trail Blazers’ defense gives up 111.4 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land on the road. 

Denver recently completed a 6-game road trip before retuning home to begin a 3-game homestand tonight.  The Nuggets have had two full days off since, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance, especially since they are off an embarrassing 20-point loss in Dallas against the Mavericks.  The Nuggets have also lost their last three home games, so tonight’s game is quite important to them.  And as noted above, they are catching Portland at the perfect time.  Denver’s offense has been much better at home this season; the Nuggets are averaging 109.2 points per game at home versus 103.2 points per game on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Denver in this game on Thursday night.     

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Los Angeles and Brooklyn match-up well for a high-scoring game on Wednesday night.  The Lakers and Nets are all offense and no defense; they combined to score 243 total points in an earlier season meeting.  Los Angeles’ offense is averaging 104.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three point land.  Brooklyn’s defense is giving up 115.2 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Lakers’ offense will have an easy time scoring points in this game just like they did when they put 125 points on the Nets earlier this season. 

Brooklyn also has a well-balanced offense that features four starters that average 14.2 points per game or more, including two guys that average 16.1 points or more.  The Nets play at the fastest pace in the NBA, and they’ll face a Los Angeles team that ranks 4th in pace.  In their earlier meeting, the two teams combined to score 122 total points inside the paint.  That means they scored a lot of easy baskets in transition due to the quick pace, and we expect more of the same tonight.  Brooklyn’s offense comes into this game in excellent current form as they’ve averaged 110.2 points per game over their last five games.  Los Angeles’ defense is in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 118.8 points per game over their last five games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Lakers and Nets on Wednesday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Orlando will hit the road once again for their game in Atlanta tonight.  The Magic will be playing their seventh road game over their last nine games overall.  Orlando does not come into this game in good current form at all, especially on the defensive end of the court.  The Magic are on a 3-game losing streak thanks to their defense which allowed a total of 347 points in those three games.  Orlando’s defense has given up 111 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  That slumping defense will now face an Atlanta offense that has scored 217 total points in their last two games.  

Atlanta recently snapped their 7-game losing streak with a home win over the Miami Heat.  The Hawks followed that with a 114-110 road win in Milwaukee last Friday night.  Atlanta is back at home, and with three full days to prepare for this game, we expect a peak performance.  The Hawks were dealing with multiple injuries to their key players, but all reports indicate the team will be back at full strength tonight.  That coincides with Orlando having injury issues as both of their centers (Bismack Biyombo and Nikola Vucevic) may miss tonight’s game.  Atlanta’s offense is averaging 106.2 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land at home, so they will take advantage of an Orlando defense that is struggling mightily right now.  We’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Los Angeles will hit the road tonight after losing 118-112 at home to the New York Knicks last night.  That was their second consecutive close, high-scoring loss as the Suns beat them 119-115 on Friday night.  Those back-to-back close losses will leave the Lakers empty tonight, especially since they will be playing on a back-to-back set.  This will also be Los Angeles’ third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  Los Angeles’ defense comes into this game in terrible current form; the Lakers have given up 116.2 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Lakers have allowed 371 total points in their last three games.

Sacramento recently completed a 5-game East Coast road trip, and that was followed by a home game with just one of rest.  Next was a back-to-back set in the high altitude of Utah where they got blown out by 20 points (104-84).  Sacramento now returns back home for tonight’s game, and since they had yesterday off, we expect a strong bounce back performance.  The Kings’ offense is averaging 103.5 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land at home, so they will take advantage of a Los Angeles defense that is struggling mightily right now.  We’ll lay the points with Sacramento in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play KINGS (-).

Dallas and Houston match-up well for a high-scoring game on Saturday night.  The Mavericks have played a different style of basketball lately, and as a result, they’ve gone Over the total in three straight games.  That streak will continue tonight against the fast-paced, no defense and offensively focused Houston Rockets.  Dallas’ defense has been horrendous in their last three games as they’ve allowed mediocre offenses (Bobcats, Kings, and Pacers) to score 332 total points.  On a back-to-back set, the Mavericks’ defense has little chance to stop the high-scoring Houston offense, especially since they are off a poor game last night.  Overall, Dallas is giving up 102.9 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 41.5% shooting from three point land on the road.

Houston also played last night, and they beat the Thunder 102-99 in Oklahoma City.  The Rockets’ offense was terrible in that game as they only shot 39.1% (36-92) from the field and an ugly 26.2% (11-42) from three-point land.  Houston will bounce back strong tonight against a Dallas defense that is in terrible current form.  The Rockets’ offense is in excellent overall current form despite last night’s poor performance.  Houston is still averaging 120.6 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field and 35% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Mavericks and Rockets on Saturday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

Utah is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Utes are coming off one of their best seasons in program history when head coach Larry Krystkowiak led the team to 27 wins before losing to eventual National Champion Duke in the Sweet 16.  However, the majority of that team has departed.  Utah lost four starters from that team, and numerous players decided to transfer as well.  Utah has a good-looking 6-1 SU record so far this season, but they’ve played every one of those games at home against inferior competition.  Their lone loss came by 9 points at home to Butler who is a weaker version of the Xavier team they’ll face tonight on the road.  Utah is making a long trip to Cincinnati for this out of conference game, and since this will be their first true road game of the season, we expect the Utes to get exposed.

Xavier is built to win right away as they return four of their top six scorers from last year’s 28-win team that was a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament.  The Musketeers return home off back-to-back road losses at Baylor and Colorado, so they will be primed for a peak performance tonight.  Xavier’s offense is averaging 79.8 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  Utah just allowed 80 points to Utah Valley and 84 points to Montana State on their home court, so Xavier’s offense will score at will in this game.  The Musketeers are the superior team by a wide margin, so we expect Xavier to win this game by 20 points or more on Saturday night.  

10* Play XAVIER (-).

New York will fly all the way out to the West Coast after getting drilled 126-94 at home by the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night.  The Knicks will open their 5-game road trip without point guard Derrick Rose who will miss this game with a sore lower back.  His absence will be felt by the Knicks as Rose was having a terrific season, especially on the offensive end of the court.  New York just beat Sacramento 106-98 at home on Sunday night, and Rose scored 20 points on 64.3% (9-14) shooting from the field in just over 33 minutes of action.  The Knicks only won that game by 8 points despite out-shooting the Kings 44.3% (39-88) to 32% (31-97) from the field.  And that game was on their home court.  New York’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 109.9 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land.

Sacramento returns home off a 5-game road trip where they went just 2-3 SU.  However, the Kings were competitive as their three losses all came by 8 points or less, including an overtime loss in Washington.  The Kings were in a terrible scheduling spot for their last game in Dallas, but they overcame it and won that game by a whopping 31 points (120-89).  We expect Sacramento to carry over that momentum for tonight’s game, especially since they are seeking quick turnaround revenge.  Sacramento’s offense is averaging 103.9 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land at home, so they will take advantage of New York’s poor road defense.  We’ll lay the points with Sacramento in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play KINGS (-).

Sacramento will conclude their 5-game road trip in Dallas tonight.  The Kings played the first four games on the East Coast, but tonight they will be in a different time zone in Dallas.  Sacramento won their first game of the trip in Brooklyn against the Nets, but they’ve gone 0-3 SU since because of the play of their offense.  Sacramento has scored 98 points or less in their last three games, and that includes an overtime session against the Wizards.  The Kings only averaged 95 points per game on 37% (102-276) shooting from the field, 24% (18-75) shooting from three-point land, and 68.5% (63-92) shooting from the free throw line in those games.  Sacramento’s offensive struggles will continue tonight against a Dallas defense that has held their last five opponents to just 92.6 points per game.

Dallas has had a rough season so far, especially considering the amount of injuries they have suffered.  However, the Mavericks are actually playing good basketball right now, and they are catching the Kings at the perfect time.  Dallas is only 2-3 SU during their past five games, but their three losses have all come by 10 points or less against teams that will be in the playoffs.  The Mavericks are now taking a step-down in class against the Kings, and Sacramento is a team on the Mavericks' level.  Andrew Bogut got hurt last night, and that may be a good thing for the Mavericks going forward.  Bogut was having a terrible season, and his backup, Dwight Powell, is actually playing much better.  Dallas is playing back-to-back home games, so we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight, especially since they are off a loss.  We’ll take the points with Dallas in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play MAVERICKS (+).

Chicago will hit the road after losing 112-110 at home to the Portland Trail Blazers last night.  The Bulls have lost back-to-back games, and they’ve lost three of their last four games overall.  Chicago is now in a bad scheduling spot, so we expect another loss tonight.  Chicago will be playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their fourth games in five nights.  Chicago’s defense is in terrible current form; the Bulls have given up 101.8 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Chicago has allowed a total of 324 points in their last three games.

Detroit comes into this game off a 98-92 home loss to the Orlando Magic on Sunday night.  The Pistons have an excuse for that loss as they were returning home off a 4-game road trip while having just one day off before the Magic game.  Detroit also won three straight road games as underdogs prior to laying 7 points against Orlando, so it wasn’t a surprise that the Pistons struggled .  They will now play back-to-back home games, so we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight, especially since they are off a loss.  Detroit’s offense is averaging 106.8 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll lay the points with Detroit in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play PISTONS (-).

Boston is finally back to full strength after playing most of the early season without Al Horford and Jae Crowder.  Both guys are back in rhythm with the team, and the Celtics have played some terrific basketball recently.  Boston is 6-2 SU over their last eight games with their two losses coming by just 6 and 7 points.  Over their last five games, the Celtics’ offense is averaging 106.6 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land.  Boston will take advantage of a terrible Houston defense that comes into this game in awful current form.  Over their last five games, the Rockets have given up 115 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field.  In their last three games alone, Houston has allowed their opponents to score 357 total points.

Houston returns home off a 5-game West Coast road trip where they went 4-1 SU, including a thrilling double overtime win over the Golden State Warriors.  The Rockets were in a terrible scheduling spot for their last game in Denver; they were playing on a back-to-back set in altitude after that draining win over the Warriors.  Heavy money came in against Houston, but they went on to beat the Nuggets 128-110.  Now with the return home and two days off, we expect the Rockets to throw a clunker tonight, especially since they are playing a Boston team that is in excellent current form.  Houston is also expected to be without Trevor Ariza because of a back injury; he is averaging 12.6 points per game while being the Rockets’ leading rebounder at 8.4 boards per game.  We’ll take Boston plus the points in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play CELTICS (+).

Denver will hit the road after losing 128-110 at home to the Rockets last night.  The Nuggets have no excuse for that loss as Houston was playing on a back-to-back set in altitude after beating Golden State 132-127 in double overtime.  Denver is in terrible current form as they are just 1-4 SU in their last five games.  Denver will be playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights.  Denver’s defense has given up 117.6 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 42% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Denver has allowed a total of 348 points in their last three games.

Utah comes into this game off a 111-110 home loss to the Miami Heat on Thursday night, so they’ll be ready for a strong bounce back effort in this game.  The Jazz upgraded their offense over the summer, and those additions have paid off so far this season.  Utah’s offense is in excellent current form; the Jazz are averaging 109 points per game on 50.6% shooting from the field and 39.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Utah will now face a woeful Denver defense that is in disarray, so expect another strong offensive game from the Jazz tonight.  We’ll back Utah in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play JAZZ (-).

UNLV had a tumultuous offseason after hiring Chris Beard as their new head coach.  After accepting the job, Beard had a change of heart and left for the head job at Texas Tech.  UNLV pursued others, and after many passes, they settled on former New Mexico State coach Marvin Menzies.  The team is in flux right now, so don’t put too much stock into their 5-2 SU record.  The Rebels have played a woeful schedule with six of their seven games coming on their home court.  Tonight’s trip to Arizona State will expose UNLV for what they are; a mediocre team at best.  UNLV will also be without their second leading scorer tonight as Christian Jones (14 ppg) is out after suffering a foot injury in their last game.  “He was probably our best player statistically,” Menzies said.  “Until we get him back, it’s all hands on deck.”

Arizona State comes into this game off an embarrassing 115-69 loss to Kentucky.  The Sun Devils had no chance of beating the Wildcats, but head coach Bobby Hurley was disgusted by his team’s effort in that game: “I’ll never tolerate losing that way or accept losing that way.”  Hurley said his team has a ‘circle the wagons’ type of effort coming tonight, and they get the perfect opponent at the perfect time.  The Sun Devils are averaging 83.3 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona State will get their preferred fast pace against UNLV, so we’ll lay the points with the Sun Devils in this game on Saturday night.         

9* Play ARIZONA STATE (-).

Cleveland will hit the road after losing 113-94 at home to the Clippers last night.  The Cavaliers have lost back-to-back games, and with this being a terrible scheduling spot, we expect another loss tonight.  Cleveland will be playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their fourth games in six nights, including three of four on the road.  Cleveland’s defense is in terrible current form; the Cavaliers have given up 110.8 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Cleveland has allowed a total of 339 points in their last three games.

Chicago comes into this game off a 96-90 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night.  The Bulls have an excuse for that loss as they were returning home off a 6-game West Coast road trip while having four days off before the Lakers game.  That much rest this early in the season is simply way too long, and it wasn’t a surprise that Chicago struggled in that game.  They are now back into their regular routine, so we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight.  The Bulls’ offense is averaging 105.8 points per game at home, so they will take advantage of the slumping Cleveland defense.  We’ll back Chicago in this game on Friday night.     

9* Play BULLS (+).

Minnesota and New York match-up well for a high-scoring game on Friday night.  The Timberwolves are loaded with elite young talent that definitely puts offense before defense.  Minnesota has three starters averaging 19.8 points per game, including Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns who both average more than 22 points per game.  The Timberwolves’ offense is averaging 103.1 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 35% shooting from three point land.  New York’s defense is giving up 106.5 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 34.8% shooting from three-point land.  Minnesota’s offense will have an easy time scoring points in this game.

New York also has a well-balanced offense that features three starters that average 16.4 points per game or more, including two guys that average 21 points or more.  The Knicks have been much more efficient with Derrick Rose at point guard, and it also helps that he is playing at full strength.  New York’s offense comes into this game in excellent current form as they’ve averaged 106.2 points per game over their last five games.  They will now face a Minnesota defense that is in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 107 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We expect a high-scoring game between the Timberwolves and Knicks on Friday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Milwaukee has played to a specific profile this season.  The Bucks have been a horrendous team, especially on offense, against strong defensive teams.  However, when Milwaukee has played bad defenses, Milwaukee’s offense has been outstanding.  The Bucks will face a terrible Brooklyn defense tonight, so we expect their good current form to continue.  Milwaukee has averaged 107 points per game in their last three games while shooting 50.6% (127-251) from the field and 37.5% (27-72) from three-point land.  The Bucks have also hit 72.7% from the free throw line while getting to the stripe 55 times in their last three games. 

Brooklyn was in terrible current form before their miraculous double overtime comeback win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday night.  Prior to that win, the Nets were on a 7-game losing streak.  Brooklyn’s defense is pitiful, and in fact, they’ve allowed 104 points or more in eleven straight games.  Over their last five games, Brooklyn has given up 120.4 points per game on 50.3% shooting from the field and 41.1% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Milwaukee in this game on Thursday night.     

10* Play BUCKS (-).

North Carolina is a perfect 7-0 on the season while scoring 83 points or more in six of those seven games.  However, aside from Wisconsin, the Tar Heels have played a joke of a schedule thus far, and they are taking another jump-up in class tonight versus Indiana.  North Carolina is also coming off their trip to Hawaii where they won the Maui Invitational, and historically, these teams underperform in their first couple of games back on the mainland.  North Carolina will also be playing a difficult true road game in Assembly Hall where the Hoosiers are 6-1 SU versus Top 5 teams under head coach Tom Crean since 2011.     

Indiana is 4-1 on the season, including a 103-99 overtime win against a very good Kansas team in their season opener.  The Hoosiers have had this game circled since losing 101-86 to North Carolina in the NCAA tournament last season.  “I remember,” said Juwan Morgan.  “I see that every day. Seeing that motivates me. Like, that can’t happen again. We have to come out and set a tone as far as who’s gonna hit who first. We’ve got to be ready to fight.”  Indiana has the offense to trade points with North Carolina; the Hoosiers are averaging 88.6 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land.  This game will go right down to the wire, so we’ll take Indiana plus the points on Wednesday night.

9* Play INDIANA (+).

Miami got an important part of their offense back on the court in their last game.  Wayne Ellington is Miami’s best perimeter shooter, especially from three-point land, and his return to the court has Miami’s offense primed to be much improved.  In their last game with Ellington on the court, Miami scored 104 points on the Celtics after shooting 47.5% (38-80) from the field.  Over their last two games, the Heat offense has scored 211 total points while shooting 48.4% (78-161) from the field.  Miami will now face a Denver team that ranks 5th in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency while giving up 105.6 points per 100 possessions.

Denver is a high-scoring offense that plays at an ultra quick pace.  The Nuggets will also get their best offensive player, Danilo Gallinari, back on the court after he missed the last three games with thigh soreness.  Overall, Denver’s offense is averaging 110.5 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Nuggets will face a slumping Miami defense that has allowed 102.2 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This game will be played at a quick pace, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Heat and Nuggets on Wednesday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Houston is primed for big things this season, and anything less than a NCAA tournament appearance would be considered a disappointment.  The Cougars are in their third year under head coach Kelvin Sampson, and with three starters and eight contributing players returning from last season’s 22-win team, Houston has no excuses.  The Cougars come into tonight’s game at LSU with a perfect 5-0 record, and we expect another big win tonight.  Houston has won four of their five games by 27 points or more.  The Cougars are averaging 85.2 points per game on 51.4% shooting from the field and 45.7% shooting from three-point land.  Houston’s defense has also been strong while holding their opponents to just 58 points per game on 36.8% shooting from the field and 25.7% shooting from three-point land.

LSU was supposed to have a big season last year with Ben Simmons on the court.  The results were a disaster even with a 19-14 record, and the team ultimately declined a post-season tournament invite to the NIT.  Head coach Johnny Jones is on the proverbial hot seat, and with little talent on hand, the Tigers are projected to finish much worse than last season.  LSU is 4-2 on the season, but they were thoroughly embarrassed by Wichita State and VCU in their two losses.  LSU lost 105-98 in overtime to Houston last season, but Simmons, Keith Hornsby, and Tim Quarterman combined to score 72 of their 98 total points in that game; all three have departed.  LSU also got out-rebounded 44-32, including 16-9 on the offensive glass.  Houston is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Cougars in this game on Tuesday night.         

10* Play HOUSTON (-).

Oklahoma City will hit the road once again on Monday night.  The Thunder just completed a 4-game in five night set on Saturday at home with their previous three games all coming on the road.  Tonight’s game in New York is a terrible scheduling spot for Oklahoma City, especially since they’ll return home for a pair of games this upcoming week.  Oklahoma City is just 1-4 SU in their last five road games with their lone win coming by just 3 points in overtime.  Overall, the Thunder own a -6.9 point differential on the road this season.  Oklahoma City’s defense is giving up 108.9 points per game while allowing their opponents to shoot 46.5% from the field and 39.2% from three-point land. 

New York returns home off a 107-102 loss in Charlotte on Saturday night.  The Knicks will be primed for a strong bounce back effort in this game, especially since they are a solid 7-2 SU at home this season.  New York’s offense is averaging 105.7 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Their strong offense at home matches-up extremely well with Oklahoma City’s poor defense on the road.  New York’s next game will be on the road, so that makes tonight’s home game more important.  We’ll back New York in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play KNICKS (+).

New Orleans got back to full strength four games ago when Jrue Holiday returned to the court.  Over their last four games, the Pelicans’ offense is averaging 115.8 points per game while taking an average of 87.3 shots per game.  New Orleans ranks 8th in pace, and they will now face the worst defense in the NBA based on efficiency as Portland gives up 109.7 points per 100 possessions.  Overall, New Orleans is averaging 104 points per game on 45% shooting from the field.  The Trail Blazers’ defense is giving up 113.4 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 35% shooting from three-point land.

Portland is also a high-scoring offense that likes plays at an ultra quick pace.  The Trail Blazers rank 9th in the league in pace while averaging 108.9 points per game.  At home, Portland averages 109.9 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 36.9% shooting from three-point land.  Portland will face a poor New Orleans' defense that is allowing 106 points per game this season.  These two teams met last Friday night with the Pelicans winning 113-101.  The teams combined to score 214 points despite Portland shooting a terrible 37.5% (33-88) from the field.  This game will be played at an extremely fast pace, so we expect a high-scoring game between New Orleans and Portland on Friday night. 

9* Play OVER the total.

This game will be played in Hawaii, so neither team will have home court advantage.  Wisconsin comes into this game off an easy 73-57 win over Georgetown last night.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Badgers in that game, and we’ll come right back with them tonight.  Wisconsin is a deep team that is built to succeed in tournament play, so they’ll have plenty of energy left for tonight’s third game in three nights.  Wisconsin returned 66.5 of its 67.8 points per game from last year’s Sweet 16 team, so this is an experienced team that plays excellent defense.  Wisconsin is holding opponents to just 59.2 points per game on 38.7% shooting from the field.  The Badgers also play at a very slow tempo, and that will have a major impact on the outcome of this game.

North Carolina is a perfect 6-0 on the season while scoring 83 points or more in every game.  However, the Tar Heels have played a joke of a schedule thus far, and they are taking a monumental step-up in class tonight versus Wisconsin.  North Carolina is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Tar Heels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, North Carolina’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  Last season, North Carolina went just 3-2 SU when held to less than 70 points with two of their three wins coming by 4 points or less.  Wisconsin’s style will frustrate North Carolina, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play WISCONSIN (+).

Denver will hit the road for the first time in ten days when they play in Utah tonight.  The Nuggets will be playing on a back-to-back set after beating the Bulls 110-107 at home last night.  This will also be Denver’s third game in four nights, their fourth game in five nights, and their fifth game in eight nights.  This is simply a terrible scheduling spot for Denver, especially since they’ll return home for a game on Friday.  Denver did just beat Utah 105-91 at home on Sunday night, but the Jazz were on a back-to-back set while playing their seventh road game in their last nine games.  Denver will be without their second leading scorer, Danilo Gallinari (16.8 ppg), tonight because of a thigh injury.

Utah comes into this game on a 4-game losing streak, but we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Jazz have had two full days of rest to get ready for this game, and with three straight home losses recently, Utah will bring their best effort.  Utah is also playing with legitimate revenge after getting embarrassed by 14 points in Denver three days ago.  The Jazz play at the slowest pace in the NBA, so their methodical style will cause Denver fits, especially since the Nuggets will be missing Gallinari.  Utah’s defense ranks 10th in defensive efficiency, and after allowing 216 total points in their last two games, the stop unit will be stout tonight.  We’ll lay the points with Utah in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play JAZZ (-).

This game will be played in Hawaii, so neither team will have home court advantage.  Wisconsin comes into this game off an easy 74-62 win over Tennessee yesterday afternoon.  The Badgers had eight players play 14 minutes or more, so they’ll have plenty of energy left for tonight’s back-to-back set.  Wisconsin will also be playing this game with legitimate revenge after losing 71-61 to Georgetown in Madison Square Garden last season.  The Badgers returned 66.5 of its 67.8 points per game from last year’s Sweet 16 team, so this is an experienced team that plays excellent defense.  Wisconsin is holding opponents to just 59.8 points per game on 38.7% shooting from the field.

Georgetown improved to 2-2 on the season after upsetting Oregon 65-61 as 9-point underdogs yesterday afternoon.  The Hoyas were fortunate that Oregon’s best player, Dillion Brooks, was limited to just 13 minutes because of injury.  Georgetown also benefitted from the pace of play as they were able to slow down the up-tempo Ducks while taking them out of their comfort zone.  That won’t be the case tonight as Wisconsin plays the same slowdown style, and the Badgers are simply a much better team than the Hoyas.  Georgetown is also depth shy as six of their seven rotation guys played 22 minutes or more in yesterday’s game.  We’ll lay the points with Wisconsin in this game on Tuesday night.         

10* Play WISCONSIN (-).

Miami comes into this game with a poor 4-8 record, but the Heat have played a brutal schedule so far this season.  The Heat faced the Spurs twice, Raptors, Thunder, Hornets, Jazz and Hawks.  Five of those six teams are ranked in the top eight in defensive efficiency, so Miami’s offensive struggles are understandable.  The Heat also played without point guard Goran Dragic for some of those games, but he returned to the court last Thursday night and Miami has won two consecutive games while scoring 210 total points.  Miami’s defense is only allowing 42% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land; Philadelphia’s offense is taking a big step-up in class in this game.

Philadelphia is the worst team in the NBA, and they come into this game with a terrible 3-10 record on the season.  The 76ers have played two of the worst defenses based on efficiency metrics in their last three games, and they scored 315 total points.  However, they will now face a Miami defenses that ranks 4th in defensive efficiency.  In their five games against teams in the top 8 of defensive efficiency (Thunder, Hawks twice, Hornets and Jazz), the 76ers averaged just 88.4 points per game on 40.2% (165-410) shooting from the field and 32.3% (42-130) shooting from three-point land.  Philadelphia lost those five games by an average of 20 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play HEAT (-).

Miami comes into this game with a poor 3-8 record, but the Heat have played a brutal schedule so far this season.  The Heat faced the Spurs twice, Raptors, Thunder, Hornets, Jazz and Hawks.  Five of those six teams are ranked in the top eight in defensive efficiency, so Miami’s offensive struggles are understandable.  The Heat also played without point guard Goran Dragic for some of those games, but he returned to the court on Thursday night and Miami beat Milwaukee 96-73.  Miami’s defense is only allowing 41.5% shooting from the field and 33.9% shooting from three-point land; Washington’s offense is taking a big step-up in class in this game.

Washington is also 3-8 on the season after beating the Knicks 119-112 on Thursday night.  The Wizards have played three of the worst defenses based on efficiency metrics in their last five games.  Against the Celtics, 76ers and Knicks, Washington’s offense scored a total of 339 points.  However, they will now face a Miami defenses that ranks 4th in defensive efficiency.  In their lone game against a team in the top 8 of defensive efficiency (Hawks), the Wizards scored just 95 points on 38.8% (31-80) shooting from the field and 25% (5-20) shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take the points with Miami in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play HEAT (+).

This game will be played on a neutral court in Florida.  Northern Iowa returns two starters and three key reserves from last year’s 23-win team that made the NCAA tournament.  The Panthers beat North Carolina last season, and they also beat a very good Wichita State team twice.  Northern Iowa has a terrific program under head coach Ben Jacobson, and he runs a ‘plug and play’ system.  Northern Iowa plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Panthers have historically played at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with excellent defense.  Northern Iowa has held their two opponents this season to a total of 100 points on 41.5% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land.  

Oklahoma made the Final Four last season, but they did so with a trio of seniors that started 105 consecutive games together.  All have departed, including the Sooners’ best player, Buddy Hield.  The Sooners are traveling an unfamiliar path this season, and head coach Lon Kruger knows that: “It will be a new squad, a new identity. They have to establish their own way.”  Oklahoma is 2-0 on the season, but they beat two inferiors teams, Northwestern State and Tulane.  Oklahoma is a team that needs to play at an ultra-fast tempo in order to be at their best.  The Sooners like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but Oklahoma will not get their preferred style of play against Northern Iowa tonight.  We’ll take the points with Northern Iowa in this game on Friday night.                  

10* Play NORTHERN IOWA (+).

Portland comes into this game with a 7-5 record, but the Trail Blazers have played a soft schedule.  Portland has played a slew of inefficient offenses, so their poor defense hasn’t been fully exposed yet.  That will change tonight against a potent Houston offense.  Overall, Portland is giving up 111.2 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land.  Those poor numbers have come against average offenses, so they’ll be even worse against better offensive teams.  Portland’s last road game against a good offense resulted in a 111-80 blowout loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers.

Houston has played eight of their eleven games on the road so far, and with this being just their fourth home game of the season, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Houston only lost 105-103 in Oklahoma City last night despite scoring just 13 total points in the fourth quarter.  Houston will now take a major step-down in defensive class, so their offense will be efficient for a full four quarters.  The Rockets have faced two poor defenses this season; Houston scored a total of 233 points while shooting 47.8% (86-180) from the field and 40% (32-80) from three-point land in those games.  They also got to the free throw line 44 times in those two games.  We’ll lay the points with Houston in this game on Thursday night.     

9* Play ROCKETS (-).

Milwaukee is 5-5 on the season after losing 107-100 in Atlanta last night.  That 7-point loss was misleading as the Bucks trailed by 14 points going into the fourth quarter, and they trailed by as many as 24 points.  Milwaukee’s offense has struggled mightily versus the three elite defensive teams they’ve played this season.  Milwaukee lost 107-96 to Charlotte, they lost 98-83 to Detroit, and last night they lost 107-100 to Atlanta.  The Bucks’ offense was horrendous in all three of those games as they only scored a combined 279 points on 40.4% (112-277) shooting from the field and 23.1% (15-65) shooting from three-point land.  Milwaukee only got to the free throw line 52 total times in those three games as well.  Tonight they will face Miami who has the fourth best defensive team in the league based on efficiency metrics.

Miami comes into this game with a poor 2-8 record, but the Heat have played a brutal schedule so far this season.  The Heat faced the Spurs twice, Raptors, Thunder, Hornets, Jazz and Hawks.  Five of those six teams are ranked in the top eight in defensive efficiency, so Miami’s offense struggles are understandable.  The Heat also played without point guard Goran Dragic, but all reports indicate he will return to the court tonight.  Miami’s defense is only allowing 42.4% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land at home, and since Milwaukee’s offense has struggled against good defenses, this game is a bad matchup for the Bucks.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this game on Thursday night.     

10* Play HEAT (-).

Phoenix has a high-scoring offense that plays at an extremely fast pace.  In fact, the Suns play at the fastest pace in the league.  Phoenix has scored 100 points or more in nine of their eleven games this season; they’ve scored 110 points or more in five of those games.  Overall, the Suns are averaging 108.4 points per game.  On the road, Phoenix’s offense has actually been better while averaging 111.5 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field.  The Suns’ defense has been horrendous this season.  Overall, Phoenix is giving up 115.6 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.  On the road, Phoenix is giving up 119.3 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 39.6% shooting from three-point land.

Denver is also a high-scoring offense that also plays at an ultra quick pace.  The Nuggets rank sixth in the league in pace while averaging 104.1 points per game.  Denver will now face one of the worst defenses in the league, and combined with the pace, we expect the Nuggets to have one of their best offensive games of the season.  Denver has played in four games against poor defenses this season.  The Nuggets have averaged 110.8 points per game while shooting 44.1% (157-356) from the field and 35.1% (34-97) shooting from three-point land.  They got to the free throw line an average of 31 times per game against those opponents.  Phoenix’s defense is worse, so Denver’s offense will score at will in this game.  This game will be played at an extremely fast pace, so we expect a high-scoring game between the Suns and Nuggets on Wednesday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Milwaukee is 5-4 on the season, but the Bucks have played a soft schedule to get those wins.  The Bucks have only played two elite defensive teams so far this season, and both of those games resulted in blowout losses.  Milwaukee lost 107-96 to Charlotte, and they lost 98-83 to Detroit.  The Bucks’ offense was horrendous in both of those games as they only scored a combined 179 points on 40.8% (73-179) shooting from the field and 21.2% (7-33) shooting from three-point land.  Milwaukee only got to the free throw line 17 total times in those two games as well, and that clearly indicates that the Bucks’ offense struggles mightily against good defensive teams.  Tonight they will face Atlanta who has the second best defensive team in the league based on efficiency metrics.

Atlanta comes into this game with an 8-2 record after winning 93-90 in Miami last night.  The Hawks got a complete team effort in that game as six players scored 11 points or more.  That has been the case all season with this Atlanta team, and it will continue tonight against a mediocre Milwaukee team.  Atlanta is 5-1 SU at home this season where they are averaging 113.3 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field and 40.0% shooting from three-point land.  The Hawks’ defense is only allowing 37.9% shooting from the field at home, and since Milwaukee’s offense has struggled against good defenses, this game is a mismatch even without Dwight Howard who is likely to miss this game after getting hurt last night.  We’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play HAWKS (-).

This game will be played in Madison Square Garden, so neither team will have home court advantage.  Kansas comes into this game off a 103-99 overtime loss to Indiana four days ago.  The Jayhawks were not sharp at all on either end of the court in that game, but we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  Kansas shot just 30.4% (7-23) from three-point land while Indiana shot 48.4% (15-31) from three-point land.  That’s -24 points for the Jayhawks from beyond the arc, yet they only lost by 4 points in overtime.  Kansas is a loaded team this season, and they have tremendous depth on the perimeter and inside the paint, and the latter advantage over Duke will be a major factor in tonight’s game.

Duke is 2-0 on the season with those wins coming by a combined 80 points.  However, the Blue Devils played two inferior opponents in Marist and Grand Canyon.  Duke is taking a huge step-up in class tonight, and we expect the Blue Devils to lose their first game of the season.  Duke is playing shorthanded in the paint right now as 5-star recruits Harry Giles (knee) and Marques Bolden (leg) will be in street clothes tonight because of injuries.  The Blue Devils are extremely weak inside the paint, and they’ll be at a major disadvantage against Kansas in this game.  We’ll take the points with Kansas in this game on Tuesday night.         

10* Play KANSAS (+).

Drexel is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Dragons are coming off an injury-riddled 6-25 season, and head coach Bruiser Flint was let go.  In steps former Army head coach Zach Spiker, and he has a major task on his hands.  Drexel is extremely young with newcomers all over the roster; only three seniors this season.  The Dragons are trying to run an up-tempo offense, but it’s going to take a lot of time for this team to come together.  “This is circumstance and happens in transition,” Spiker said.  “It’s nobody's fault. I don’t know that Year One will reflect what we’re trying do. This season will be about teaching the style. Our depth will be one of our bigger challenges throughout the season.”

Monmouth is built to win right away as the majority of their roster returns from last year’s 29-win team that made the NIT tournament.  The Hawks averaged 79.5 points per game last season while shooting 43.5% from the field and 36.6% from three-point land.  Monmouth is also a good free throw shooting team (76.8%) which helps them extend leads.  Monmouth is taking this game seriously, so we can expect a peak performance in their season opener.  “We have a lot of kids this year, we have more guys than we’ve ever had,” head coach King Rice said.  “We’re older and now we have six seniors. It’s exciting, it's been fun so far. It’s fun to have a mature team that is as hungry as they’ve ever been.”  Monmouth is the superior team, so we expect them to win this game by a big margin on Friday night.

10* Play MONMOUTH (-).

Boston heads to Washington off back-to-back losses with their last being an ugly 123-107 home defeat to the Denver Nuggets.  After that poor performance, Boston head coach Brad Stevens had some choice words for his team.  “It was horrible,” Stevens said.  “Everybody is disgusted with the way the team played. We know that’s not how we play and that something has to change and that starts with each other and started today in practice.”  Boston has had two full days of practice since, so we can certainly expect a strong bounce back team effort against the Wizards tonight.

Washington is having a poor season so far; the Wizards come into tonight’s game with a 1-5 SU record.  Washington has played a mediocre schedule as well, so their shortcomings cannot be attributed to their level of competition.  In fact, the Celtics will be the best team they’ve played this season, and they are catching them at the wrong time.  The Wizards have given up 112 points or more in four of their six games, and since Boston’s offense has scored 104 points or more in five of their six games, we don’t expect Washington’s defense to hold up in this game.  Boston is the superior team in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll back the Celtics in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play CELTICS.

Minnesota is having a disappointing season so far with a 1-4 SU record.  However, the Timberwolves have played much better basketball than their record indicates.  In fact, Minnesota has held big leads (15, 17 and 18 points) in three of their four losses this season.  The Timberwolves are averaging 60 points per game in the first half, but their problem has been in the third quarter; Minnesota ranks near the bottom in the league in point margin during those 12 minutes of play.  But tonight they will play a Brooklyn team that has similar struggles and ranks at the bottom in the same category.  Minnesota is loaded with young talent, including Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Karl-Anthony Towns who possess the speed to play at a quick pace.  The Timberwolves will get that pace tonight against a Brooklyn team that wants to play the same exact way.

Brooklyn comes into tonight’s game with a 2-4 SU record after losing three of their last four games.  The Nets have played a mediocre schedule, and they have faced a slew of teams missing important members of their team.  Brooklyn will be without starting point guard Jeremy Lin (hamstring) and backup point guard Greivis Vasquez (ankle) tonight, and their absence will be felt, especially since the Nets haven’t played a game in three days.  Brooklyn will be forced to use shooting guard Randy Foye at the point tonight, but he too is dealing with a nagging hamstring injury.  The Nets are really thin at the guard position for this game, so it’s hard to imagine them being able to trade points with the Timberwolves.  Minnesota is the much better team, so we’ll back the Timberwolves in this game on Tuesday night.          

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Utah comes into this game with a 4-3 SU record (3-4 ATS) after winning 114-109 last night in New York.  They played their best offensive game of the season after shooting 50.7% (38-75) from the field and hitting 85.7% (30-35) from the free throw line.  Utah had six players score in double figures, so it was a complete team effort.  The Jazz will now play a back-to-back road set with this also being their third game in four nights, their fourth game in six nights, and their fifth game in seven nights.  This is simply a poor situational and scheduling spot for the Jazz, especially since they are laying points.

Philadelphia is winless (0-5 SU) on the season, but the 76ers have played a brutal schedule.  They have played Oklahoma City, Atlanta, Charlotte and Cleveland who are all much better teams.  Philadelphia has been a scrappy team so far this season (3-2 ATS) as three of their five losses have come by a total of 9 points (6, 2, and 1 point margins).  The 76ers will play their final home game before playing four of their next six games on the road, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  The home team is in a good spot while the road team is not, so we’ll take the 76ers plus the points in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play 76ERS (+).

Golden State comes into this game with a 4-1 SU record after winning their last four games, including last night’s 122-96 waxing of the Oklahoma City Thunder.  That was a circled game for the Warriors, especially Kevin Durant who scored 39 points on 62.5% (15-24) shooting from the field, including 63.6% (7-11) shooting from three-point land against his former team.  Overall, the Warriors shot 51.1% (46-90) from the field, 46.7% (14-30) from three-point land, and 80% (16-20) from the free throw line.  Golden State will now hit the road for the fourth time in their last five games.  The Warriors will also be playing their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  After tonight’s game, the Warriors will have two days off before playing at home on Monday night.

Los Angeles returns home off a 4-game road trip where they went just 1-3 SU.  However, the Lakers have been a scrappy team so far this season as they are 4-1 ATS with only one loss coming by more than 7 points.  Los Angeles will be playing just their second home game of the season, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  Prior to holding Oklahoma City to 96 points last night, the Warriors’ defense had allowed 100 points or more in all four of their other games this season, while going just 1-3 ATS.  This is a bad situational and scheduling spot for Golden State, so we’ll take the Lakers plus the points in this home game on Friday night.

10* Play LAKERS (+).

Detroit comes into this game with a 3-1 record after winning their last three games.  The Pistons played all of those games at home, including last night’s 102-89 victory over the New York Knicks.  The Pistons will now hit the road for the first time since their season opener which resulted in a 109-91 defeat in Toronto against the Raptors.  Detroit will also be playing their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  After tonight’s game, the Pistons will have two days off before playing at home once again on Saturday.  This is a bad situational and scheduling spot for Detroit, especially since they are laying points on the road after shooting 61.5% (8-13) from three-point land last night.

Brooklyn got embarrassed by 30 points (118-88) in their last home game on Monday night.  The Nets allowed the Bulls to shoot 50.6% (45-89) from the field and 40.7% (11-27) from three-point land in that ugly loss.  Brooklyn has had a day off since, and with another game in front of their home fans, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Brooklyn is playing for new head coach Kenny Atkinson who was most recently the top assistant for the Atlanta Hawks.  Atkinson plays the ‘space and shoot’ style, and it actually fits the newly molded Nets.  Brooklyn will have success against the Pistons defense, so we’ll take the Nets plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play NETS (+).

Memphis comes into tonight’s game with a 2-1 record, but the Grizzlies could very well be 0-3 on the season.  Memphis beat Minnesota at home in their season opener, but the Grizzlies needed to rally from a 17-point deficit in that game.  Memphis needed overtime to beat the Washington Wizards in their last game.  The Grizzlies out-shot the Wizards 48.4% (15-31) to 20.0% (5-25) from three-point land, and they still needed to win that game in overtime.  That’s not a good sign at all, especially since they’ll be playing on the road tonight.  In their lone road game of the season, Memphis lost 111-104 in New York against the Knicks.  

Minnesota is winless on the season at 0-2, but both of those games came on the road.  The Timberwolves will play their home opener tonight, and we expect a peak performance in this game.  Minnesota is primed to make a big step forward in 2016 despite their two losses so far this season.  Minnesota is loaded with young talent, including Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Karl-Anthony Towns.  The Timberwolves actually dominated the first meeting against Memphis as they out-scored the Grizzlies 44-34 inside the paint, held a 13-5 fast break points edge, and held a 17-6 biggest lead edge as well.  Minnesota is the better team, so we’ll back the Timberwolves in this game on Tuesday night.          

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Boston heads to Charlotte off a 105-99 loss to the Bulls in Chicago on Thursday night.  The Celtics were in a tough spot for that game after winning a high-scoring 122-117 shootout at home against Brooklyn the night before.  Boston had a day to rest off a loss, so we expect a peak performance by the Celtics tonight.  Boston has high expectations this season, and rightfully so.  The team is extremely well-coached by Brad Stevens, and their roster is loaded with talent from top to bottom.  Boston is 4-1 in their last five meetings versus Charlotte; the Celtics won those games by an average of 9.5 points per game.   

Charlotte is a perfect 2-0 SU on the season after winning at Milwaukee and at Miami.  The Hornets were road favorites in both of those games, so the wins were expected.  Charlotte also played a pair of teams that are worse than they are, but now they are taking a monumental step-up in class against Boston.  The Hornets are also playing on a back-to-back set, and this will also be their third game in four nights.  While it’s extremely early in the season, this is still a bad situational and scheduling spot for the Hornets.  Boston is the superior team in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll back the Celtics in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play CELTICS (-).

Indiana comes into this game with a 1-0 record after out-lasting Dallas 130-121 in overtime on Wednesday night.  The Pacers blew a 14-point lead in that game because of their new style of play.  Indiana got rid of Frank Vogel and hired Nate McMillan in order to play at a much faster pace.  While McMillan has agreed to the change, his teams of the past were more defensive minded while playing at a slower pace.  He’s out of his comfort zone, and that was quite noticeable on the defensive end in their season opener.  Indiana shot 50.5% (47-93) from the field and an incredible 52.6% (10-19) from three-point, but they needed to win in overtime because of their defense.  That’s not a good sign of things to come for the Pacers.

Brooklyn lost their season opener in Boston; the Nets suffered a close 122-117 loss to the Celtics.  But that was an impressive performance, especially since Boston is expected to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.  Brooklyn is also playing for a new head coach this season; Kenny Atkinson was most recently the top assistant for the Atlanta Hawks.  Atkinson also likes to play the ‘space and shoot’ style, and it actually fits the newly molded Nets.  Brooklyn took 97 shots against Boston, and since Indiana wants to play fast as well, the Nets will have success against the Pacers poor defense.  We’ll take Brooklyn plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

9* Play NETS (+).

Minnesota improved by 13 wins last season, and the Timberwolves are primed to make another big step forward in 2016.  Minnesota is loaded with young talent, including Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Karl-Anthony Towns.  The Timberwolves will be playing for new head coach Tom Thibodeau this season, and his presence on the bench will have a major impact on this year’s results.  Minnesota was going nowhere with Sam Mitchell, and the fact that they actually won 13 more games despite him shows just how talented this team really is.  

Memphis is a shell of the team they'll be later in the season.  The Grizzlies are decimated by injuries right now with Tony Allen (knee), Chandler Parsons (knee), and Brandon Wright (ankle) all out tonight.  Marc Gasol will be playing on a minutes restriction because he’s dealing with nagging ankle and foot injuries.  Gasol will not be the only Memphis player at less than full strength tonight as Troy Daniels and Jarell Martin are also dealing with lingering injuries.  Memphis will also be playing in a new system for new head coach David Fizdale, so expect this team to struggle early and often this season.  Minnesota is the superior team, so we’ll back the Timberwolves in this game on Wednesday night.          

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Cleveland looked to be a dead team after going down 3-1 in this series.  But the Cavaliers woke up in the past two games to force Game 7 tonight at Golden State.  Cleveland won Game 5 on the Warriors’ home court by 15 points (112-97), and they won Game 6 at home by 14 points (115-101).  The Cavaliers got perfect games from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.  That duo combined for 146 of the team’s 230 total points in the last two games after shooting an incredible 56.6% (56-99) from the field, including 53.8% (14-26) shooting from three-point land.  Overall, Cleveland shot 52.5% (84-160) from the field and 39.2% (20-51) from three-point land in Games 5 and 6.  The Cavaliers are off back-to-back perfect games, but now they must hit the road once again and play Game 7 in a difficult situation.  Home teams in Game 7 of the NBA playoffs are an incredible 101-24 SU (81%) all-time, including a perfect 5-0 SU this season.  Also, 32 teams have trailed 1-3 in the NBA Finals and none of those teams ever won the series.  This is only the 3rd time in 32 occasions that a team has even forced a Game 7 when down 1-3 (those other two teams both lost Game 7).

Golden State played terrible basketball in Games 5 and 6 against Cleveland.  The Warriors shot just 38.2% (65-170) from the field and 35.8% (29-81) from three-point land.  There’s a high probability that Golden State’s poor shooting will reverse in Game 7, especially on their home court where they are 50-4 SU on the season.  The Warriors are averaging 114.8 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field and 40.9% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, nine of Golden State’s fifteen playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ fifteen playoff wins have come by an average of 15.9 points per game.  Golden State has eleven home wins in the playoffs, and ten of those wins have come by 8 points or more.  Their average home win has come by a whopping 15.6 points per game in the playoffs.  Overall, Golden State owns an outstanding +14.0 point differential at home this season.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 7 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Golden State played terrible basketball in Game 5 on Monday night.  The Warriors lost that game by 15 points (112-97), but they played that game shorthanded as Draymond Green was suspended for a flagrant foul in Game 4.  Golden State shot just 36.4% (32-88) from the field and 33.3% (14-42) from three-point land.  There’s a high probability that Golden State’s poor shooting will reverse in Game 6, and we’ll see the team that dominated the league this season.  The Warriors are now 15-7 SU in the playoffs, but they only scored 97 points in Game 5.  It was just the fifth time in twenty-two playoff games in which the Warriors scored less than 100 points.  In their four previous games after a poor offensive performance, Golden State went 4-0 SU and ATS in the following game while averaging 113.3 points per game with an average winning margin of 15.5 points per game.  Golden State played one of their worst games of the playoffs in Game 5, and a big bounce back performance is expected in Game 6.

Cleveland bounced back with a supreme performance in Game 5 on the Warriors’ home court.  The Cavaliers got perfect games from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.  That duo combined for 82 of the team’s 112 total points after shooting an incredible 61.1% (33-54) from the field, including 60% (9-15) shooting from three-point land.  Overall, Cleveland shot 53% (44-83) from the field and 41.7% (10-24) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers’ offense was so efficient in Game 5, and they did it all with their bench only scoring 12 total points.  We expect major regression from Cleveland in this game.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, nine of Golden State’s fifteen playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ fifteen playoff wins have come by an average of 15.9 points per game with their four road playoff wins coming by a whopping 13 points per game.  We’ll take the points with the Warriors in Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.  NBA Playoff Game of the Year.

10* Play WARRIORS (+).

Cleveland returns to Golden State down 3-1 in this series, and it’s a foregone conclusion that the Warriors will win back-to-back championships.  Cleveland is a dead team, and that was evident in their second half performance in Game 4 on their home court last Friday night.  The Cavaliers were lethargic and unemotional while getting out-scored 58-42 by Golden State.  Cleveland’s offense was pathetic, and their defensive rotations were downright embarrassing.  The Cavaliers showed quit, and it would be very surprising if they came with a good effort in Game 5 tonight, especially since they know this series is all but over. 

Golden State played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they bring their ‘A’ game, they are extremely difficult to beat.  The Warriors will be without Draymond Green tonight, and while his absence would be quite important over the long term, it should have little impact on one single game.  That’s because Cleveland just showed they’ve quit, and without Green on the floor, we can be assured Golden State won’t take this game lightly.  Golden State has eleven home wins in the playoffs so far, and ten of those wins have come by 8 points or more.  Their average home win has come by a whopping 15.6 points per game in the playoffs.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 50-3 at home where they own an outstanding +14.6 point differential this season.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday night.

9* Play WARRIORS (-).

Golden State played terrible basketball in Game 3 on Wednesday night.  The Warriors lost that game by 30 points (120-90), but losing that game was expected.  Golden State shot just 42.1% (32-76) from the field and an ugly 27.3% (9-33) from three-point land.  Golden State also hit just 65.4% (17-26) from the free throw line.  There’s a high probability that Golden State’s poor shooting will reverse in Game 4 tonight, and we’ll see the team that dominated the league this season.  The Warriors are now 14-6 SU in the playoffs, but they only scored 90 points in Game 3.  It was just the fourth time in twenty playoff games in which the Warriors scored less than 100 points.  In their three previous games after a poor offensive performance, Golden State went 3-0 SU and ATS in the following game while averaging 115 points per game with an average winning margin of 17 points per game.  Golden State played their worst game of the playoffs, and a big bounce back performance is expected in Game 4.

Cleveland bounced back with a supreme performance in Game 3 on their home court.  The Cavaliers got a total team effort as four of their five starters scored 14 points or more while all five scored 9 points or more.  Overall, Cleveland shot 52.7% (48-91) from the field and 48% (12-25) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers’ offense was so efficient in Game 3, and they did it all without Kevin Love who was out with a concussion.  Love is expected to play tonight, but his return alters the recent Cleveland lineup that played outstanding basketball together.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, eight of Golden State’s fourteen playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ fourteen playoff wins have come by an average of 16.3 points per game with their three road playoff wins coming by a whopping 13.7 points per game.  We’ll take the points with the Warriors in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Friday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (+).

Golden State is now 2-0 SU and ATS against Cleveland after winning the first two games of the NBA Finals in easy fashion.  The Warriors had little trouble in those games; they won Game 1 by 15 points (104-89) and Game 2 by 33 points (110-77).  Because of their last two blowout wins, tonight’s pointspread presents some excellent value in playing against Golden State.  In fact, prior to the series starting, one sports book had a look-ahead line of Cleveland -3 for Game 3.  The Warriors shot 54.3% (44-81) from the field and 45.5% (15-33) from three-point land in Game 2.  Four players scored in double digits, and eleven players scored overall.  That was a complete team effort by Golden State, but off such a complete performance and now on the road, we expect some regression by the Warriors in Game 3. 

Cleveland has been terrible so far in this series, but the Cavaliers will be primed for a breakout performance on their home court tonight.  Cleveland’s offense was awful once again in Game 2 as they only shot 35.4% (28-79) from the field and 21.7% (5-23) from three-point land.  Overall, the Cavaliers have shot just 36.8% (60-163) from the field and 27.3% (12-44) from three-point land in the two games.  Cleveland’s offense will perform much better at home where they average 107.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 38% shooting from three-point land.  While it’s unfortunate Kevin Love will miss tonight’s game with a concussion, the Cavaliers showed they could beat Golden State without him in last year’s Finals.  Cleveland will come with their best performance, so we’ll back the Cavaliers in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night.

9* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Cleveland lost to Golden State by 15 points (104-89) in Game 1 on Thursday night.  Cleveland’s offense was terrible in that game as they only shot 38.1% (32-84) from the field and 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land.  Cleveland’s only offensive contributions came from their best three players as LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love combined to score 66 of their 89 total points.  The Cavaliers got little production from anybody else, and their second unit was simply awful in Game 1.  The bench scored a total of 10 points in over 58 minutes of combined playing time, and incredibly, they only combined to take 10 total shots.  They were passive and timid, but we expect a much better performance tonight by Cleveland’s role players.

Golden State didn’t play their best by any means in Game 1, but they were still able to win that game by 15 points.  However, the Warriors got extreme performances by unlikely contributors as Shaun Livingston and Leandro Barbosa combined to score 31 points on an incredible 86.7% (13-15) shooting from the field.  That combined performance was an anomaly, and it allowed Golden State to win by an inflated margin.  The game was within a single point late in the third quarter as well, so the final margin of victory is somewhat misleading.  Overall, Golden State shot 49.4% (43-87) from the field.  Cleveland is still one of the best teams in the league and Class-A teams off a blowout loss in the playoffs has been a long-term winning ATS play.  Quality Game 2 road underdogs off a loss are also an excellent play.  Cleveland qualifies in several 60%+ ATS bounce-back situations tonight, and this will be a much closer game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Cleveland in Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.

9* Play CAVALIERS (+).

Cleveland and Golden State will play Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.  The Cavaliers lost to the Warriors by 15 points (104-89) in Game 1 because their offense was terrible in that game.  Cleveland only shot 38.1% (32-84) from the field and 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land.  Cleveland’s only offensive contributions came from their best three players as LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love combined to score 66 of their 89 total points.  Head coach Tyron Lue was not pleased with Cleveland’s pace of play, and he wants a much faster tempo tonight.  “I need LeBron James to pick up the pace for us offensively, getting the ball out and just beginning to play faster,” Lue said.  “Pace, so we can get up the floor and get guys open shots in transition. The floor’s more open when you’re able to play with pace and LeBron and Kyrie Irving can get downhill. If we pick up the pace and play with a faster tempo offensively, we’ll be fine.”

Golden State didn’t play their best by any means in Game 1, especially their two best offensive players.  Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson only combined for 20 points on 29.6% (8-27) shooting from the field, including 30.8% (4-13) shooting from three-point land.  The Warriors’ offense only had 9 total fast-break points as well.  Despite that, Golden State still scored 104 total points in that game.  The Cavaliers and Warriors combined to score 96 total points inside the paint, and the ability to score easy baskets at the rim is essential when looking for a high-scoring game.  Golden State’s offense averages 115.2 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 41.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Warriors’ offense will play better tonight, and so will the Cavaliers’ offense, especially since they’ll be playing at a much quicker pace.  We expect a high-scoring Game 2 of the NBA Finals between Cleveland and Golden State on Sunday night.

10* Play OVER the total.

Cleveland and Golden State will begin the NBA Finals on Thursday night.  The Cavaliers are 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS in the playoffs so far.  The Warriors are 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS in the playoffs.  So both teams have been dominating.  Cleveland was a double digit favorite five times, going 4-1 ATS while Golden State was a double digit favorite two times, going 1-1 ATS.  Both teams faced similar paths to the Finals; the Cavaliers opponents were a combined 148-98 during the regular season while the Warriors opponents were a combined 140-106 during the regular season.  Cleveland’s defense has been terrific in the playoffs, but the numbers were better at home than on the road.  In seven home games, the Cavaliers gave up just 90.4 points per game.  In seven road games, the Cavaliers gave up 94 points per game.  They allowed 98 points or more in five of those seven road games.  So the Cavaliers’ defense numbers are skewed, and they will now take a monumental step-up in offensive class against the Warriors who average 115.5 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 41.2% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  

Golden State set an NBA record with a 73-9 mark in the regular season.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but a lot of that had to do with the big lineup Oklahoma City threw at them.  Golden State lost Game 1 at home to the Thunder, and they got behind 3-1 in that series.  So we expect the Warriors to bring their ‘A’ game tonight, and if they do, they will cruise to an easy win.  Golden State has nine home wins in the playoffs so far, and eight of those wins have come by 8 points or more.  Their average home win has come by a whopping 15.4 points per game in the playoffs.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 48-3 at home where they own an outstanding +14.2 point differential this season.  Golden State also went 2-0 versus Cleveland in the regular season, winning those games by 6 and 36 points.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Oklahoma City inexcusably blew Game 6 on their home court.  The Thunder led throughout the game, but they completely collapsed in the fourth quarter where they got out-scored 33-18 and lost the game by 7 points (108-101).  Oklahoma City’s offense was terrible in that game, and they were still able to eclipse the century mark.  The Thunder shot just 42.2% (38-90) from the field, and a pathetic 13% (3-23) from three-point land.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined to score 57 points, but both players shot the ball terribly.  The duo combined to shoot just 34.5% (20-58) from the field, including a woeful 8% (1-13) from three-point land.  Durant and Westbrook will bounce back with strong performances tonight, so Oklahoma City’s offense will be much more efficient in this game.

Golden State’s offense wasn’t all that good in Game 6 either; the Warriors only shot 40.9% (36-88) from the field.  The Warriors won that game because of three-point shooting; they were +54 points (63-9) over Oklahoma City from beyond the arc.  The Warriors have averaged 115.4 points per game in the five meetings at home this season against the Thunder's defense.  The average score of all nine head-to-head meetings this season has been 218.4 points per game (in regulation time).  However, the pace of those games has been fast and my mathematical re-scoring model says an average of 225.5 points per game should have been scored, with the median re-score being 227 total points per game.  My power ratings using all games this season makes the O/U line 225.5.  There is solid line value with the Over, especially since tonight's O/U line is nearly 7 points lower than the closing total in Game 1 (225).  Look for a high-scoring Game 7 between the Thunder and Warriors on Monday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Golden State bounced back with a strong offensive performance as expected in Game 5 as they scored 120 points to extend this series another game.  The Warriors shot 47.1% (40-85) from the field, 37.5% (9-24) from three-point land, and 91.2% (31-34) from the free throw line.  Five players scored 11 points or more, including four of their five starters.  It was a complete team effort, and we expect a similar performance tonight in Game 6, especially since Golden State’s season is once again on the line.  The Warriors have averaged 107.8 points per game in this series, and that includes a game in which they only scored 94 points.  If we toss that one abnormal game, the Warriors have averaged 111.3 points per game against the Thunder's defense.

Oklahoma City’s offense has been fantastic in four of the five games in this playoff series, and we expect another solid offensive game from the Thunder tonight, especially with this game back on their strong home court.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have combined to score 294 of the 561 total points scored by the Thunder.  Oklahoma City is averaging 112.2 points per game in this series, and that includes a game in which they only scored 91 points.  If we toss that one abnormal game, the Thunder have averaged 117.5 points per game against the Warriors’ defense.  The average score of the eight head-to-head meetings this season has been 219.6 points per game (in regulation time), however half of those games have seen at least 224 total points or more scored.  More importantly, my mathematical re-scoring model says an average of 225.9 points per game should have been scored in those eight head-to-head meetings, with a median re-score of 227.8.  The oddsmakers have lowered tonight's line a full 5 points from the closing line in Game 1 (225), so there is still solid line value with the Over.  Look for a high-scoring Game 6 between the Warriors and Thunder on Saturday night. 

10* Play OVER the total.

Golden State’s offense has scored 102 points or more in three of four games in this series.  However, the Warriors’ offense was terrible in Game 4 on Tuesday night.  Golden State scored just 94 points on 41.2% (33-80) shooting from the field and 30% (9-30) shooting from three-point land.  Off that horrendous offensive performance, we fully expect the Warriors to bounce back with a strong performance in Game 5 tonight, especially at home.  Oklahoma City’s offense has also been fantastic in three of the four games in this series.  The Thunder scored 108 points in Game 1, 133 points in Game 3, and 118 points in Game 4.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have combined to score 223 of the 450 total points scored by the Thunder.  Oklahoma City was averaging 111.9 points per 100 possessions on the road in the playoffs prior to this series, and they’ve had little trouble scoring on Golden State’s defense while averaging 112.5 points per game in this series.

The average score of the seven meetings this season has been 218 points per game (in regulation time).  However, my mathematical re-scoring model says an average of 225.4 points per game should have been scored based on the pace of play, with a median re-score of 227 points in the seven head-to-head meetings.  Tonight's O/U line is 5 points lower than the closing total (225) in Game 1.  There is now solid line value with the Over, and we expect a high-scoring game between the Thunder and Warriors in Game 5 tonight.

10* Play OVER the total.

Oklahoma City played perfect basketball in Games 3 and 4 on their home court.  The Thunder scored a season-high 133 points in regulation time in Game 3 after shooting 50% (46-92) from the field and 89.2% (33-37) from the free throw line.  Oklahoma City scored 62 points inside the paint, and they also had 29 fast-break points.  In Game 4, Oklahoma City scored 118 points after six different players scored 10 points or more, including all five of their starters.  Oklahoma City was terrific in both of those games, but they are now in a bad situational spot for Game 5 on the road against the Warriors.

Golden State was thoroughly embarrassed in Games 3 and 4 by Oklahoma City.  The Warriors lost Game 3 by 28 points (133-105), and they lost Game 4 by 24 points (118-94).  Off those two poor performances, and with a return to their strong home court, we expect a peak performance by Golden State tonight.  The Warriors won Game 2 off a loss at home by 27 points (118-91).  Golden State has dominated Oklahoma City at home all season.  In fact, the Warriors have held biggest lead edges of 20-9, 17-9, 14-8, and 35-1 in their four homes games versus the Thunder.  Golden State qualifies in a solid 60% ATS playoff bounce-back situation and they should perform much better at home tonight where they are 46-3 SU this season, including 3-1 SU/ATS versus the Thunder, with wins by 8, 15, and 27 point margins.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 5 on Thursday night.

9* Play WARRIORS (-).

Toronto looked like a team on the verge of getting swept after losing the first two games of this series in Cleveland by 31 and 19 points.  The Raptors were written off, but after winning the last two games at home to tie the series at 2 games apiece, Toronto’s bandwagon is full.  The Raptors will head back to Cleveland for Game 5 tonight, and this game sets up nicely for the home team from a performance pattern perspective.  Toronto scored 204 total points in their last two games after shooting a combined 49.7% (80-161) from the field, 35.8% (19-53) from three-point land, and 78.1% (25-32) from the free throw line.  To compare, Toronto only scored 173 total points in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland after shooting just 41.1% (65-158) from the field, 24.6% (14-57) from three-point land, and 76.3% (29-38) from the free throw line.  The Raptors’ offense will regress tonight while their opponent is set to bounce back with a strong performance.

Cleveland played perfect basketball in Games 1 and 2 en route to a 2-0 series lead.  But the Cavaliers lost their way in Toronto as they played terrible basketball in the next two games.  Cleveland scored a total of 183 points in Games 3 and 4 after shooting just 41.4% (67-162) from the field and 32.9% (27-82) from three-point land.  Cleveland only had 25 total attempts from the free throw line in the last two games; Toronto made the same amount in 32 attempts.  That will clearly change with tonight’s game on Cleveland’s home court; expect a favorable home whistle for the Cavaliers.  Cleveland’s offense will also perform much better on their home court where they’ve scored 100 points or more in 13 consecutive games dating back to the regular season.  We’ll lay the points with Cleveland in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Golden State was thoroughly embarrassed in Game 3 by Oklahoma City.  The Warriors lost that game by 28 points (133-105).  That was a complete reversal from Game 2 when Golden State won by 27 points (118-91).  The Warriors’ offense was terrible on Sunday night.  They only scored 105 points on 41.3% (38-92) shooting from the field and 30.3% (10-33) shooting from three-point land.  Even though Stephen Curry and Clay Thompson scored 42 points combined, they both shot the ball terribly from three-point land.  They combined to hit just 26.3% (5-19) from beyond the arc.  Golden State’s leading scorers will play much better tonight, and their three-point shooting will be much more efficient.

Oklahoma City played perfect basketball in Game 3.  The Thunder scored a season-high 133 points in regulation time after shooting 50% (46-92) from the field and 89.2% (33-37) from the free throw line.  Oklahoma City scored 62 points inside the paint, and they also had 29 fast-break points.  The Thunder had six different players score 10 points or more, including four of their five starters.  Oklahoma City’s defense was terrific in Game 3, but that one performance does not erase how poorly they played in their previous game.  Golden State’s offense will play much better tonight, and in turn their defense will step-up as well.  We’ll back the Warriors in Game 4 on Tuesday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Golden State will play Game 3 in Oklahoma City tonight with the series tied at one game apiece.  The Warriors bounced back strong at home in Game 2 when they beat the Thunder by 27 points (118-91).  Golden State shot 50.6% (43-85) from the field and 46.4% (13-28) from three-point land.  The Warriors had seven different players score 10 points or more, including four of their five starters.  Golden State’s defense was terrific in Game 2, but that one performance does not erase how poorly they’ve played in their previous games.  Portland had little trouble scoring on Golden State’s defense in the previous series as they averaged 114.2 points per game.  Oklahoma City scored 108 points in Game 1 despite shooting just 43.8% from the field.  

Oklahoma City was very successful in their last series while implementing a big lineup versus the Spurs’ ‘small ball’ style.  It worked to perfection for the Thunder as they dominated the boards and limited San Antonio’s second-chance points.  Oklahoma City was able to duplicate that success in Game 1 against the Warriors, but they faltered on Wednesday night.  The Thunder sulked on defense because their offense played so poorly while only shooting 44.9% (35-78) from the field and 30.4% (7-23) from three-point land.  Russell Westbrook had a really bad game as he scored just 16 points on 35.7% (5-14) shooting from the field.  Oklahoma City’s offense will play much better tonight, and in turn their defense will step-up as well.  We’ll take the points with Oklahoma City in Game 3 on Sunday night.

10* Play THUNDER (+).

Cleveland is now 10-0 SU in the playoffs after winning the first two games of this series against Toronto.  The Cavaliers had little trouble in those games; they won Game 1 by 32 points (115-84) and Game 2 by 19 points (108-89).  However, the Cavaliers have not been as dominant as their 10-0 record indicates.  Six of their ten playoff wins were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  Because of their last two blowout wins, the pointspread on tonight’s game is greatly inflated.  To compare, the Cavaliers were just 5-point road favorites in Detroit in Game 3 and just 2.5-point road favorites in Atlanta in Game 3 after going up 2-0 in the series against those opponents.  Toronto is a better team than the Pistons and Hawks yet they are getting more points in a similar situation.  Cleveland was only +2.5 points better than Toronto in all games this season, which would normally translate to Pick'em line on the road, so this shows how inflated tonight's pointspread has become based on recent results.

The Raptors hung tough in three of four quarters in Game 2 on Thursday night; Cleveland only out-scored Toronto 76-69 combined in the first, third, and fourth quarter.  The second quarter did them in as the Cavaliers out-scored the Raptors 32-20 to take control of the game.  Toronto’s offense was terrible once again as they only shot 40.2% (33-82) from the field and 27.3% (9-33) from three-point land.  The Raptors have shot just 41.1% (65-158) from the field and 24.6% (14-57) from three-point land in the two games so far.  But Toronto’s offense scored 111.1 points per 100 possessions against Cleveland’s defense in three regular season meetings; that ranked them 5th against any opponent.

Kyle Lowry has been noticeably poor in the first two games of this series, scoring just 8 and 10 points, but keep in mind he scored 27, 23, and 43 points in the three regular season meetings against the Cavaliers which was his best output against any conference opponent.  He will likely bounce back with a much better performance in Game 3 at home.  Remember, he had back-to-back poor games against Indiana and Miami in the previous two rounds, scoring just 11 and 7 points, and then he averaged 26.1 points in his next six games.  The Raptors now return home where they are 38-11 SU this season, and this should lead to their best performance, so we’ll take the inflated points with the Raptors in Game 3 on Saturday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Toronto got embarrassed by Cleveland in Game 1 on Tuesday night; the Raptors lost by 31 points (115-84).  Toronto hung tough in the first quarter as they only trailed by 5 points after the first 12 minutes of the game.  But over the final three quarters, the Raptors got out-scored 82-56 by the Cavaliers.  Toronto beat Cleveland in two of three regular season meetings, so the Raptors are quite capable of beating Cleveland even though it didn’t look like it in Game 1.  Toronto’s offense was terrible in that game as they only shot 42.1% (32-76) from the field and 20.8% (5-24) from three-point land.  Toronto’s offense scored 111.1 points per 100 possessions against Cleveland’s defense this season; that ranked them 5th against any opponent.  So the Raptors’ offense can easily play much better offense tonight.  Kyle Lowry averaged 31 points per game against Cleveland in the regular season, the most he scored against any Eastern Conference opponent.  But he only scored 8 points on 28.6% (4-14) shooting from the field, including 0-7 from three-point land. 

Cleveland has yet to lose a game in the playoffs; they are now 9-0 after sweeping Detroit and Atlanta and winning Game 1 of this series.  However, the Cavaliers have not been as dominant as their 9-0 record indicates.  Six of those nine games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play, so the games were highly competitive.  Cleveland shot well above normal from three-point land as they hit 46.2% from beyond the arc in their first eight games of the playoffs.  The Cavaliers were too reliant on shooting three’s as 42.8% of their overall shots came from beyond the arc.  In Game 1, Cleveland shot 35% (7-20) from three, but they shot 55.4% (41-74) from the field.  Cleveland went into their last game off 8 full days of rest, and after a stellar performance with a lengthy layoff, we expect major regression tonight.  We’ll take the generous points with the Raptors in Game 2 on Thursday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Oklahoma City stole Game 1 on Monday night after dominating the second half.  The Thunder out-scored the Warriors 61-42 which was the complete opposite of the first half when Golden State out-scored Oklahoma City 60-47.  Overall, Oklahoma City scored 108 points on just 43.8% (39-89) shooting from the field.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined to score 53 of the 108 total points scored, so with a complete team effort tonight, the Thunder’s offense will put more points on the scoreboard.  Oklahoma City was averaging 111.9 points per 100 possessions on the road in the playoffs going into Game 1, and they had little trouble scoring on Golden State’s defense.  The Thunder also implemented a big lineup versus the Spurs in their last series, and it continued to work in Game 1 of this series.

Golden State was terrific on offense in the first half, but they were terrible over the final two quarters.  Overall, the Warriors scored 102 points on 44% (40-91) shooting from the field.  Golden State did make 11 three-point shots, but they needed 30 attempts to do so.  The Warriors only shot 64.7% (11-17) from the free throw line as well.  Despite the horrendous offensive performance, Golden State was still able to score more than 100 points in the game.  Off that poor loss, we fully expect the Warriors to bounce back with a strong performance, and that means their offense will be leading the way.  Neither team shot all that well in Game 1, but they still managed to scored 210 total points.  The pace was fast as my re-scoring model totaled 228.5 in Game 1.  With normal shooting percentages, we expect a high-scoring game between the Thunder and Warriors in Game 2 tonight.

10* Play OVER the total.

Toronto needed seven games to beat Miami in their last series, so the Raptors may be a little gassed to start this series.  But often times, teams in the Raptors’ situation play off momentum and shock their opponent who takes them lightly in the first game.  Toronto beat Cleveland in two of three regular season meetings, so there’s no lack of confidence either.  The Raptors have the best second unit remaining in the playoffs, so they’ll have no drop-off when their starters are getting rest.  That will be an important factor in this series against Cleveland, especially since the Cavaliers’ bench is older and slower at every position.  Toronto’s offense scored 111.1 points per 100 possessions against Cleveland’s defense this season; that ranked them 5th against any opponent.  Kyle Lowry averaged 31 points per game against Cleveland, the most he scored against any Eastern Conference opponent.  Toronto has some very favorable offensive match-ups in this series.

Cleveland has yet to lose a game in the playoffs after sweeping Detroit and Atlanta.  However, the Cavaliers were not as dominant as their 8-0 SU record indicates.  Six of those eight games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  Cleveland also shot well above normal from three-point land as they hit 46.2% from beyond the arc.  The Cavaliers were too reliant on shooting three’s as 42.8% of their overall shots came from beyond the arc.  Cleveland has only averaged 30.8 points per game inside the paint, ranking them dead last in the playoffs in that particular category.  Cleveland hasn’t played a game in 8 full days, so it might take time for the Cavaliers to get back into game rhythm.  This line is over-inflated based on recent results as Cleveland was just +2.5 points better than Toronto in all games this season.  The line value is with the Raptors in Game 1 tonight.

9* Play RAPTORS (+).

Oklahoma City and Golden State have had plenty of time to prepare for Game 1 tonight, so we expect both teams to bring solid efforts.  The Thunder upset San Antonio in their last series, and they did so by playing a much different lineup.  Oklahoma City was very successful while implementing a big lineup versus the Spurs’ ‘small ball’ style.  It worked to perfection for the Thunder as they dominated the boards and limited San Antonio’s second-chance points.  If Oklahoma City can duplicate that success against the best ‘small ball’ team in the NBA, then they can take the Warriors to the brink in this series.

Golden State had a harder than expected time in beating Portland in their last series.  The Warriors struggled with the Trail Blazers in the last three games as they lost, won by 7 points in overtime, and only won by 4 points in Game 5 as a 13.5-point home favorite.  Portland had little trouble scoring on Golden State’s defense as the Blazers averaged 114.2 points per game.  Golden State’s defensive struggles will continue against an Oklahoma City team that is averaging 111.9 points per 100 possessions on the road in the playoffs.  The line value is with Oklahoma City in what should be a close and competitive Game 1 tonight.

9* Play THUNDER (+). 

Miami played terrific basketball at home in Game 6 to force today’s Game 7 back in Toronto.  The Heat scored 103 points on 47.6% (40-84) shooting from the field.  That was the first time either team eclipsed the century mark in regulation time in this series, and off such a performance, we expect Miami to regress some in this game.  Four of Miami’s five starters scored 12 points or more; that unit combined to score 79 of their 103 total points.  Overall, the Heat had five players score in double digits in Game 6.  Miami’s bench out-scored Toronto’s bench 24-15, but considering the Raptors have the best second unit remaining in the playoffs, it’s highly unlikely the Heat will repeat that performance this afternoon.

Toronto returns home for Game 7, and we expect a strong bounce back performance this afternoon by the Raptors.  Toronto’s offense was terrible on Friday night.  The Raptors only scored 91 points on 41.5% (34-82) shooting from the field and 25% (4-16) shooting from three-point land.  Despite the loss, Toronto did out-score Miami 46-44 inside the paint, and they also held a 12-5 edge in fast break points.  That’s a positive sign for Toronto heading into Game 7, especially since the excellent Raptors bench is expected to play much better in this game.  Home teams are now 99-24 SU (80%) in the history of Game 7 in the NBA Playoffs, including 2-0 already this season.  We’ll lay the points with Toronto at home in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play RAPTORS (-).

San Antonio once again played an inexplicably bad game on Tuesday night when they lost 95-91 at home to Oklahoma City.  The Spurs’ offense was terrible in three of the four quarters while only scoring 16, 24, and 19 points.  San Antonio blew a 13-point second half lead after getting out-scored 26-19 over the final 12 minutes of the game.  Overall, the Spurs shot just 40.2% (35-87) from the field in Game 5.  San Antonio has the best bench in the NBA, but that second unit was awful, scoring just 11 total points in the last game.  San Antonio was dominant in their 32-point (124-92) win in Game 1 of this series which was a more accurate depiction of the team's true abilities.  San Antonio is an incredible 14-3 SU off a loss this season with their average win coming by a whopping +17.4 points per game, so they are quite capable of a supreme effort in Game 6 tonight.  Class-A teams off back-to-back losses has been a consistently profitable play in the NBA Playoffs for several decades.

Oklahoma City trailed throughout Game 4 and Game 5; they were down by 11 and 13 points in those games respectively.  The Thunder have now out-scored the Spurs 60-35 over the final 24 minutes of the last two games to take a 3-2 series lead.  Oklahoma City is basically Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and when the team gets limited production from the supporting cast, it’s difficult for them to beat an elite team like the Spurs.  But Steven Adams, Dion Waiters, and Enes Canter have combined to score 73 points on 60% (27-45) shooting from the field in the last two games; both resulting in Thunder wins.  It’s highly unlikely those players will repeat their performances in three consecutive games, and that puts Oklahoma City in a bad spot for tonight’s game.  We’ll back San Antonio in a solid bounce-back spot in Game 6 on Thursday night.

10* Play SPURS (-).

Miami and Toronto are all tied at 2 games apiece heading into Game 5 tonight.  The Heat showed a lot of resilience in their come from behind overtime win in Game 4 on Monday night.  Miami’s offense was terrible in that game, especially from three-point land.  The Heat shot an ugly 6.7% (1-15) from beyond the arc, and they still found a way to win the game.  Miami’s offense has been poor in the last two games as they’ve shot a combined 43.9% (69-157) from the field and 15.2% (5-33) from three-point land.  Miami’s strength is their ability to get to the free throw line.  Over the last two games, Miami is shooting 85.7% (42-49) from the line, and that has allowed them to be competitive despite the poor offensive shooting.

Toronto basically handed Miami the win in Game 4, and that type of loss can be tough to overcome even in the playoffs.  The Raptors are led by their guards Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, but neither has been able to dent Miami’s defense in this series.  Lowry has scored a total of 68 points on 35.4% (23-65) shooting from the field while DeRozan has scored 70 points on 35% (28-80) shooting from the field.  Toronto is also without starting center Jonas Valanciunas because of an ankle injury; his absence simply puts more pressure on Lowry and DeRozan.  All four games in this series have been decided by 7 points or less with three of the four games going to overtime.  We expect another close game throughout, so we’ll take Miami plus the points in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play HEAT (+).

Oklahoma City has won two games in this series, but the Thunder were actually on their way to losing both of those games.  Oklahoma City trailed throughout Game 4 on Sunday night, and they were down by 11 points before playing an outstanding fourth quarter.  The Thunder out-scored the Spurs 34-16 over the final 12 minutes of the game to even the series up at 2 games apiece.  Oklahoma City shot 50.6% (40-79) from the field with Kevin Durant having a dominating game.  Durant scored 41 points on 56% (14-25) shooting from the field, and he also made 10 of his 13 free throw attempts.  Oklahoma City finally got contributions from players other than Durant and Russell Westbrook as Steven Adams, Dion Waiters, and Enes Canter combined to score 44 points on 64% (16-25) shooting from the field.  It’s highly unlikely those players will repeat that performance, and that puts Oklahoma City in a bad spot for tonight’s game.

San Antonio’s offense was terrible in the fourth quarter of Game 4 as they only scored 16 total points.  Overall, the Spurs shot an ugly 16.7% (2-12) from three-point land.  Two of San Antonio’s five starters, Tim Duncan and Danny Green, failed to score a single point in Game 4.  The Spurs once again had to rely on LeMarcus Aldridge who scored 20 points, bringing his 4-game total to 123 points scored in this series.  San Antonio has yet to repeat their complete team effort of Game 1 when they won by 32 points (124-92), but we expect it tonight.  San Antonio is an incredible 14-2 SU off a loss this season with their average win coming by a whopping 17.4 points per game.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by San Antonio, so we’ll back the Spurs in Game 5 on Tuesday night.

9* Play SPURS (-).

San Antonio bounced back strongly in Game 3 with their 100-96 win in Oklahoma City.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Spurs in that game, and we’ll come right back with them in Game 4 tonight.  Despite their last win, San Antonio did not play close to their best basketball as they only shot 43.4% (33-76) from the field.  The Spurs’ offense has been poor in the last two games as they’ve shot a combined 42.9% (73-170) from the field and 38.1% (16-42) from three-point land.  Aside from LeMarcus Aldridge who has scored 65 points on 54.8% (23-42) shooting from the field in the last two games, the other four San Antonio starters have combined to score just 92 points on 39.1% (34-87) shooting from the field.  The above numbers simply show how much San Antonio has been off their game.  San Antonio will put a complete game together tonight, and that spells trouble for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City fought back from a 15-point deficit in Game 3 to temporarily take the lead late in the fourth quarter.  But the Thunder couldn’t hold on, and they ultimately lost by 4 points.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook once again played terrific as the duo combined to score 57 of the team’s 96 total points.  In the past two games, Durant and Westbrook have scored 114 total points on 45.2% (42-93) shooting from the field.  However, the supporting cast has been awful for the Thunder, and they simply cannot beat a complete team like San Antonio without others scoring.  We expect a breakout performance by San Antonio, so we’ll back the Spurs in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play SPURS (-).

San Antonio played perfect basketball in Game 1 of this series, so they were expected to regress in Game 2.  The Spurs did exactly that as they only scored 97 points in a home loss on Monday night.  San Antonio’s offense was terrible in that game as they only shot 42.6% (40-94) from the field and an ugly 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land.  At one point in the game, San Antonio had yet to attempt a free throw while the Thunder already had 14 free throw attempts.  Aside from LeMarcus Aldridge who scored 41 points on 71.4% shooting from the field, the other four San Antonio starters combined to score just 32 points on 30.4% (14-46) shooting from the field.  The above numbers simply show how much San Antonio was off their game.  But with three full days off since that game, we expect the Spurs to bounce back strong with a complete team effort in Game 3.

Oklahoma City bounced back as expected in Game 2 after getting embarrassed by San Antonio in Game 1 by 32 points (124-92).  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook played outstanding in Game 2 as the duo combined to score 57 points on 50% (22-44) shooting from the field.  Overall, the Thunder shot 48.1% (38-79) from the field.  Oklahoma City had five players score 12 points or more, so it was a complete team effort.  San Antonio is an incredible 13-2 SU off a loss this season with their average win coming by a whopping 18.3 points per game.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by San Antonio, so we’ll back the Spurs in Game 3 on Friday night.

9* Play SPURS (-).

Cleveland took a commanding 2-0 series lead after walloping Atlanta by 25 points (123-98) on Wednesday night.  The five starters once again played terrific basketball in Game 2.  They combined to scored 85 of the team’s 123 total points with four of the five starters scoring 11 points or more.  In the first two games of this series, Cleveland’s starters have scored 168 points while shooting an incredible 56.6% (30-53) from three-point land.  Overall, the Cavaliers shot 47.1% (41-87) from the field and 55.6% (25-45) from three-point land in Game 2.  Cleveland broke an NBA record with their 25 made three’s, and off back-to-back outstanding shooting performances from beyond the arc, we expect major regression in Game 3 on Friday night, especially since this game will be played on Atlanta’s home court.

Atlanta returns home off back-to-back blowout losses.  The Hawks are in a prime situational spot for this game, especially since they are 30-14 at home this season.  Atlanta shot just 39.9% (63-158) from the field in the first two games, but the Hawks average 103.4 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8), but they’ve been horrible in this series.  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  Off back-to-back poor defensive efforts, we expect a very strong performance by the Hawks on the defensive end in this game.  This is a terrific spot for Atlanta, so we’ll take the Hawks plus the points in Game 3 on Friday night.

10* Play HAWKS (+).

Atlanta hung tough in Game 1 before eventually losing 104-93.  The Hawks actually played a terrible game on both ends of the court, but we expect a strong bounce back performance in Game 2 tonight.  Atlanta shot just 37.9% (33-87) from the field and 32.4% (11-34) from three-point land.  Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague combined for just 11 points with 6 of those points coming from the free throw line.  The duo shot just 20% (2-10) from the field, including 20% (1-5) from three-point land.  Korver and Teague combine to average 26.2 points per game, so we expect both players to perform much better tonight.  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  We expect a strong performance tonight after they executed poorly on the defensive end in their Game 1 loss on Monday night. 

Cleveland’s starters played terrific basketball in Game 1.  The starting five combined to score 83 of their 104 total points.  Four of the five starters scored 12 points or more after shooting 48% (12-25) from three-point land.  Overall, the Cavaliers shot 44.6% (37-83) from the field and 48.4% (15-31) from three-point land.  Cleveland had 10 total players score while seven players scored 8 points or more.  Despite losing by double digits, the Hawks out-scored the Cavaliers 36-32 inside the paint.  Atlanta also out-rebounded Cleveland 48-44, including a 15-10 edge on the offensive glass.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by Atlanta, so we’ll take the Hawks plus the points in Game 2 on Wednesday night.

10* Play HAWKS (+).

Oklahoma City got embarrassed by San Antonio in Game 1 as the Spurs rolled to an easy 32-point (124-92) win.  Oklahoma City played a terrible game on both ends of the court, but we expect a strong bounce back performance in Game 2 tonight.  The Thunder shot just 41.2% (35-85) from the field and a terrible 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for just 30 points with 8 of those points coming from the free throw line.  The duo shot just 32.4% (11-34) from the field, including 0% (0-5) from three-point land.  Durant and Westbrook both average 24 points per game, so we expect both players to perform much better tonight.  Prior to the loss in Game 1, Oklahoma City was 14-7 SU versus San Antonio in games played with Durant, so the Thunder have had plenty of success against the Spurs in the past.

San Antonio played perfect basketball in Game 1 on Saturday night.  The Spurs scored 124 points after shooting an incredible 60.7% (51-84) from the field and an excellent 60% (9-15) from three-point land.  The Spurs had all 13 players score while three players scored 81 of the 124 points overall.  It was a complete team effort in which everybody was on their game.  In four regular season meetings this season, the teams split, but Oklahoma City’s two losses only came by 8 points (93-85) and by 4 points (102-98) in overtime.  That shows that these teams are much closer than the results of Game 1.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by Oklahoma City, so we’ll take the Thunder plus the points in Game 2 on Monday night.

10* Play THUNDER (+).