Texas came into this season with lofty expectations. But those were made assuming point guard Mych Kabongo would be playing. He is still ineligible to play while the NCAA investigates his dealings with a pro agent. As it is, Texas has had to move on and play with the guys they have. And that group is extremely talented, even without Kabongo on the floor. Texas comes into tonight

Los Angeles was on a 4-game losing streak prior to winning their last two games at home. Their offense woke up as they scored 101 and 116 points in those two wins; they scored 98 points or less in four of their previous five games. The Clippers now take back to the road where they

This game is being played at the Honda Center in Anaheim so neither team will have the home court edge. San Diego St has been waiting for this game forever; the Aztecs always got shot down in their attempt to schedule a game against UCLA. Well their wait is over and it

Denver played last night at Golden St and they lost 106-105 on a last-second shot after blowing an 8-point fourth quarter lead. The Nuggets have to wheel right back tonight and play an angry Lakers team that was embarrassed in their last game. The Nuggets, especially their defense, have not fared too well in road games on back-to-back nights. In fact, the Nuggets have been in this situation six times between this season and last. In those six games, an average of 225 points has been scored with the Nuggets allowing more than 100 points in all six games. This situation has produced a 5-1 ATS record to the Over based on tonight

Houston has morphed into a strong offensive team recently. The Rockets have gelled on the court and they

Toronto finally got their point guard back on the court, and his presence makes the Raptors a competitive team. Kyle Lowry is the leader of the Raptors, and he brings a toughness and attitude that the entire team embraces. Toronto was run over last night by a red hot Houston offense and they lost 117-101; it didn

NC State has struggled in their last two games, and those struggles have created some value on the Wolfpack in this game tonight. They got blown out by Oklahoma St (76-56) and won their last game by just 2 points over N.C. Ashville (82-80). But there were two fundamental problems with NC State in those games; they turned the ball over too much and they missed a lot of free throws. When you do those two things in the same game, you are going to have your struggles. But the Wolfpack actually get a favorable match-up in this game with Michigan because their weaknesses are not strengths of the Wolverines.

Michigan is not a team built on forcing their opponents to turn the ball over and they do not get many steals. So NC State

San Antonio comes in off a double overtime win in Toronto on Sunday afternoon. The Spurs won that game 111-106, but three of their starters played more than 41 minutes while two of those guys played more than 46 minutes. San Antonio is also playing their third game in four nights on the road, and for an old team this is a terrible scheduling and situational spot. The Spurs will be playing just their third back-to-back set of the season; they won twice in this spot but only by 2 and 3 points. San Antonio has also scored 327 points in their last three games so they are due to throw in a clunker.

Washington has yet to win a game this season. The Wizards come into tonight

Oklahoma City hasn

VCU has played shockingly well so far this season. There wasn

The Washington Wizards have yet to win a game this season. They come into tonight

This game is being played at Madison Square Garden so neither team has the home court edge. We

Brooklyn comes into this game in tremendous form; the Nets have won five consecutive games thanks to their offense. During their 5-game winning streak, Brooklyn is averaging 101 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field. They

Davidson has their entire team back from last year

Phoenix comes into tonight

This game will be played at Madison Square Garden so neither team will have a true home court edge. However, Villanova certainly has the geographical location edge and they

This game will be played at Madison Square Garden so neither team will have the home court edge. Alabama comes in at 2-0 after beating South Dakota St and Division II West Alabama. The Crimson Tide struggled in their game against the Jackrabbits as they only won 70-67 while getting out-shot 50% (25-50) to 48.1% (25-52). Alabama figures to struggle for the majority of this season, especially early on as they lost a lot of talent from last year

Washington played an ugly game last night in Charlotte; the Wizards lost 92-76 after shooting a horrendous 29.8% (25-84) from the field and 16.1% (5-31) from three-point land. The Wizards scored 27 points in the first quarter but they only scored 49 total points over the final three quarters. That

Wisconsin will be one of the best defensive teams in the country once again this season. The Badgers opened their season strong with a 40-point win over Southeast Louisiana. While the Lions were an inferior opponent, Wisconsin still held them to just 47 points on 35.2% (19-54) shooting from the field and 35.7% (5-17) shooting from three-point land. The Badgers also out-rebounded that opponent by 30 which shows the Badgers have big bodies inside the paint. That is critical for this game as Florida

Kentucky is in the unenviable position of having to replace all five starters from their championship team of a season ago. While the Wildcats reloaded with some more incredible talent, they are not comparable to last year

Washington comes into tonight

We played Delaware last night in their 84-69 win over Pennsylvania, and we

Pennsylvania comes into tonight

Boston opened the season at 0-2, but since then they

Dallas has been able to win four of their five games early on this season despite playing without Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, and Rodrigue Beaubois. However, before we give them too much credit, let

Orlando is off to a surprising 2-1 start this season. The Magic are projected to be one of the worst teams in the NBA at season

Minnesota comes in off a blowout loss at Toronto last night; the Timberwolves lost that game 105-86. That loss, and the fact that they are playing on back-to-back nights, has created a lot of value for this game. Minnesota is one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and despite being without their two best players (Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio), they are still a tough out. Head coach Rick Adelman did not play his starters over the last four minutes of the fourth quarter last night as the game was out of reach. So despite playing on consecutive nights, Minnesota will not be that fatigued, especially since they play a 10-man rotation.

Brooklyn played in an important game on Saturday night. It was their season opener at home in a new arena for new ownership. Not only that, but the Nets were playing for the surrounding areas that were devastated by Hurricane Sandy. That was an emotional game, and Brooklyn delivered a107-100 win over the Raptors. But tonight it

Denver comes into tonight

Memphis has made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, and if all goes well this season, they should be back for a third straight year. But they need to get off to a better start as they

These two teams last met in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals a season ago; the Heat won that game 101-88 and went on to win the NBA title. That loss was a hard one for Boston to take, and they get their chance at avenging that loss right out of the gate in the season opener tonight.

This total is not priced correctly based on how these teams want to play. Boston is a team that excels when they play faster and allow Rajon Rondo to make plays in the open court. The Celtics have the stigma of being a

The NBA championship is on the line tonight as Miami is one win away from winning the title. Knowing that, we can expect Miami to be extremely focused on the defensive end of the court. And that shouldn

Miami has now won back-to-back games in this series to take a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals. The Heat won by 6 points (91-85), but Game 3 went back and forth with both teams making multiple runs. Miami was fortunate to make the last winning run as they closed the game on a 5-0 run over the final 1:19 of the game; that turned a 1-point Miami lead into a 6-point SU and ATS loss for Oklahoma City. The Thunder

The first two games in this series were actually played at a much slower pace than the final scores indicate. Game 1 had 199 points scored and Game 2 had 196 points scored, but both games should have been much lower scoring. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model totaled just 181.5 points in Game 1 and just 183 points in Game 2. We saw a correction in Game 3 when the Thunder and Heat scored just 176 points. My mathematical re-score in that game was only 178.5 points so there was nothing misleading about the final score. We expect the slow pace to continue in Game 4 tonight, and there

Miami bounced back strong as expected in Game 2; the Heat led the entire game and won 100-96. The game was not as close as the 4-point margin of victory indicates as Miami led by as many as 17 points, and by double digits for the majority of the game. Oklahoma City played an overall bad Game 2; the Thunder shot just 43% (34-79) from the field and 34.6% (9-26) from three-point land. Oklahoma City also missed 7 free throws (19-26), and that was not good for the best free throw shooting team in the NBA. Aside from Durant and Westbrook, only James Harden scored more than 7 points for the Thunder which means the rest of their role players scored a combined 16 points on an ugly 25% (5-20) shooting from the field. Those guys played as bad as they could so we expect them to respond with a much better effort in Game 3.

Oklahoma City lost for just the fourth time in these playoffs. The Thunder have lost three of the four games by 4 points or less which shows just how tough it is to beat them by a big margin. As an underdog, Oklahoma City is 3-1-1 ATS in the playoffs, and since they are off a home loss and catching points, we see some good value with them in this spot. Miami got an all-around team effort in Game 2 as four of their five starters scored 16 points or more. As a team, they shot 47.4% (36-76) from the field and 42.9% (6-14) from three-point land. The Heat also hit 22 of their 25 free throw attempts. Miami may be in for a letdown in this game as it

Game 1 went Over the total in the last 18 seconds of play when Miami made a meaningless layup and Oklahoma City hit 2 free throws to end the game. Game 2 either pushed or won by a

Oklahoma City won Game 1 105-94, but the game was a lot closer than the final score indicates. Miami actually held a 13-point lead before they wore down in the second half when the Thunder out-scored them by 18 points (58-40). The second half collapse was expected as Miami was simply in a terrible situational spot for Game 1. The Heat came off their grueling 7-game series with Boston, and they were facing a well-rested and fresher Thunder team that had six days of rest. Miami

Game 1 went Over the total in the last 18 seconds of play when Miami made a meaningless layup and Oklahoma City hit 2 free throws to end the game. That game was actually played at a much slower pace than the final score (105-94) indicates. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model totaled just 181.5 points in Game 1. The misleading final score has now created value with the Under tonight as using all games this season, and factoring in the slower pace of playoff games in general, would make a fair Over/Under line of just 191 for tonight's game. When playing off a loss, Miami has really slowed things down in these playoffs. In six such games, Miami and their opponent have averaged just 185 points per game. On the road, the total points are even lower with an average of just 181 points scored per game.

Overall, Miami has played terrific defense throughout the playoffs. Despite allowing Oklahoma City to score 105 points in Game 1, Miami is holding their opponents to just 89 points per game. They

The NBA Finals get underway tonight as Miami takes to the road in Oklahoma City for Game 1. Miami

Boston and Miami just played a slow, half-court grinder in Game 6 on Thursday night with the Heat winning 98-79. With this being Game 7 and a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, we expect another low-scoring, defensive battle in this game. The Over is 4-2 so far in this playoff series, but that is very misleading as the pace of play has been slow. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model has totaled just 160, 165, 167.5, 170, 181.5, and 168 in the six playoff games with an average re-score of just 169 total points. These misleading final scores have now created value with the Under tonight as using all games this season, and factoring in the slower pace of playoff games in general, would make a fair Over/Under line of just 173 for tonight's game.

The Celtics went 3-1 against the Heat in the regular season, and a major reason for that was the play of Boston

The fact that the Over is 4-1 so far in this playoff series is very misleading as the pace of play has been slow. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model has totaled just 160, 165, 167.5, 170, and 181.5 in the five playoff games with an average re-score of just 169 total points. These misleading final scores have now created value with the Under tonight as using all games this season, and factoring in the slower pace of playoff games in general, would make a fair Over/Under line of just 173 for tonight's game. Game 5 was a low-scoring, defensive grinder through three quarters. The teams scored 43 points or less in all three quarters before the floodgates opened in the fourth quarter when the Heat and Celtics combined to score a whopping 59 points. Neither offense played particularly well in Game 5 as Boston shot just 39% (32-82) from the field while Miami shot 40.7% (33-81) from the field.

Miami is on the brink of elimination tonight so we expect the Heat to bring their best defensive effort. Their defense has been terrific throughout the playoffs as they are allowing just 88 points per game in the playoffs. And if we eliminate the 101 and 111 points scored by Boston in Games 2 and 3, Miami would be allowing just 85 points per game. The Celtics went 3-1 against the Heat in the regular season, and a major reason for that was the play of Boston

San Antonio was on a major roll coming into Game 3. The Spurs were on an incredible 20-game SU winning streak. They were also an incredible 16-3-1 ATS in those 20 games and an even more impressive and profitable 34-3 SU (27-7-3 ATS) in their previous 37 games overall. But their impressive streak has come to a screeching halt; the Spurs have now lost three consecutive games in this series. Despite losing, San Antonio

The fact that the Over is 3-1 so far in this playoff series is very misleading as the pace of play has been slow. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model has totaled just 160, 165, 167.5, and 170 in the four playoff games with an average re-score of just 166 total points. These misleading final scores have now created value with the Under tonight as using all games this season, and factoring in the slower pace of playoff games in general, would make a fair Over/Under line of just 172 for tonight's game. Neither offense played particularly well in Game 4 as Boston shot just 41.2% (35-85) from the field while Miami shot 42.5% (34-80) from the field. The reason that game went Over the total was the clutch three-point shooting by the teams; they combined to make 15 total three

San Antonio was on a major roll coming into Game 3. The Spurs were on an incredible 20-game SU winning streak. They were also an incredible 16-3-1 ATS in those 20 games and an even more impressive and profitable 34-3 SU (27-7-3 ATS) in their previous 37 games overall. But their impressive streak came to an end when Oklahoma City handed San Antonio a 20-point loss (102-82) in Game 3. The Spurs were expected to bounce back strong in Game 4, but they didn

The last two games in this series have been high-scoring. Game 2 ended with a 115-111 Miami win in overtime. Both teams shot the ball well in that game as they combined to hit 47% (77-164) from the field and 35.7% (15-42) from three-point land. Neither team is known for their 3-point shooting so the 15 made three

The Thunder were in an excellent bounce-back situation on Thursday night in Game 3 as they returned home down 0-2 in the series and they played an inspired game in front of their home crowd as expected. We used a selection on Oklahoma City in Game 3 and it was an easy 20-point winner (102-82). However, that blowout win now sets up a strong bounce-back situation for the Spurs as they look to regain control of this 7-game series in Game 4 tonight.

The Spurs were due for a off-game as they entered Thursday on an incredible 20-game SU winning streak. The pressure is now off and San Antonio should respond with a strong showing tonight. Quality road underdogs off a 20+ point loss in the playoffs are a long-term 60% ATS play in the NBA postseason and Class-A teams off a loss have also been a long-term winning play in Game 4 of a series. Despite the rare setback on Thursday night, the Spurs are still an incredible 20-1 SU (16-4-1 ATS) in their past 21 games and an even more impressive and profitable 34-4 SU (27-8-3 ATS) in their past 34 games overall.

The Spurs are still 4-2 SU in the six head-to-head meetings versus the Thunder this season, including 4-1 SU in the past five games in which the Spurs have held 24, 27, 10, and 22-point leads in their four wins versus Oklahoma City. In fact, the Thunder never led in two of those four losses against San Antonio this season. Going further back, the Spurs are 8-4 ATS in the past twelve meetings versus Oklahoma City, including 5-1 ATS the previous two years heading into this season. Look for San Antonio to respond with a motivated effort tonight after their embarrassing loss in Game 3 and the Spurs present excellent value at an underdog price.

10* Play SPURS (+).

Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals played out in a strange way on Wednesday night. Boston jumped out to a big 15-point lead and then Miami stormed back to take a 7-point lead early in the fourth quarter. The Celtics re-rallied and re-took the lead before the Heat came back once again. Boston was then down 3 points late before Ray Allen hit a three to send the game into overtime. Miami out-lasted Boston in the extra session to win 115-111 and take a 2-0 series lead into tonight

San Antonio took a commanding 2-0 series lead on Tuesday night with their 120-111 win over Oklahoma City. That was the Spurs 20th consecutive win, and their 34th win in their last 37 games; their last loss came way back on April 11th. Knowing that, it may seem unreasonable to lay a handful of points into this team in this game tonight. But we actually see this as the perfect time to go against the red hot San Antonio team. Despite their incredible winning streak, the Spurs have not played as dominating basketball as you would expect. In Game 1 of this series, the Spurs needed to score 39 points in the fourth quarter after trailing by 9 points going into the final 12 minutes of the game. In Game 2, the Thunder rallied from a 22-point third quarter deficit to trail by just 6 points in the fourth quarter before faltering late. In the two games combined, San Antonio has shot an incredible 50.3% (81-161) from the field while Oklahoma City has shot just 42.1% (72-171) from the field. But San Antonio has only won the games by just 3 and 9 points.

Oklahoma City is certainly on the same level as San Antonio. The Spurs got two easy opponents with issues in their first two series, but the Thunder are many notches above the Jazz and Clippers. The Spurs were fortunate to hold on for wins in their four road playoff games, but tonight

Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals was a defensive scrum between Boston and Miami. Aside from the 60-point second quarter, the Celtics and Heat scored 41 points or less in the other three quarters. Boston

Oklahoma City controlled Game 1 for the first three quarters and they took a 9-point lead (71-62) into the final 12 minutes of play. But they failed to close things out and the Spurs went on to out-score them by 12 points (39-27) and won the game 101-98. The only way Oklahoma City can beat San Antonio is to play the way they did over the first three quarters, and that is to push the tempo. The Thunder settled for half-court offense in the fourth quarter, but that is not their game. Over the first 36 minutes of play, the Thunder won fast-break points 14-6. Their biggest edge is their speed and quickness, and if they push the ball for four full quarters tonight, then there

The Eastern Conference Finals get underway tonight as Boston plays at Miami in Game 1. The Celtics were not supposed to be in this series as the Chicago Bulls were the consensus pick to meet Miami with a chance to go to the NBA Finals. But a major injury to Derrick Rose opened the path for the Celtics, and after playing 13 games against the Hawks and Sixers, they find themselves in this series. Boston has played back-to-back grueling series, and they come into tonight with just one day of rest after winning Game 7 over Philadelphia on Saturday night. The Celtics will certainly be playing with fatigue tonight, and their best chance at staying close to Miami in this game will be to make it a half-court, defensive scrum.

Miami has plenty of rest coming into this game as they last played four days ago. This team was thrashed after going down 2-1 in their series against Indiana. But they regrouped and played three consecutive dominating games in which they averaged 107 points per game while winning each of those games by 8 points or more. But with the semi-layoff, we expect Miami to be without that motivational edge tonight which means they may get caught in playing Boston

The Western Conference has played to form as #1 San Antonio and #2 Oklahoma City meet in the Finals. The two teams have ripped through the playoffs; they are a combined 16-1 with the Spurs a perfect 8-0 and the Thunder 8-1. The two teams are also well rested with San Antonio coming into tonight

Philadelphia and Boston just played a slow, half-court grinder in Game 6 on Wednesday night with the Sixers prevailing 82-75. With this being Game 7 and a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line, we expect another low-scoring, defensive battle in this game. The Over is 4-2 so far in this playoff series, but that is very misleading as the pace of play has been slow. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model has totaled just 174, 171, 165, 170, 159, and 165 in the six playoff games with an average re-score of just 167 total points and a median re-score of 170. Misleading totals were also the case in the regular season when the Over went 2-1 as those games were also slow with pace re-scores of just 165, 168, and 170 points.

The Sixers and Celtics are the two least efficient offensive teams remaining the playoffs, however both teams do play solid defense and are the two most efficient defensive teams remaining in the postseason. Philadelphia is permitting just 89 points per game and only 42.7% FG (versus opponents that average 94.9 ppg and 44.5%). Boston allows just 88.6 points per game and 41.9% FG (versus opponents that average 95 ppg and 44.4%). The Celtics have been even stronger defensively at home where they allow just 84.3 points per game and only 40.6% FG this season. We expect another low-scoring game between the Sixers and Celtics in Game 7 on Saturday night.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Miami took advantage of a fragile Indiana team in Game 5 just we expected. The Pacers blew a golden opportunity to take a commanding 3-1 series lead in Game 4 last Sunday. They lost an 8-point halftime lead (54-46) after getting out-scored 55-39 in the second half to lose 101-93. Indiana was certain to play with a hangover in Miami in Game 5, and they did as they lost by 32 points after shooting a terrible 33.7% (30-89) from the field and 28.6% (6-21) from three-point land. It also didn

The fact that the Over is 4-1 so far in this playoff series is very misleading as the pace of play has been slow. In fact, my mathematical re-scoring pace model has totaled just 174, 171, 165, 170, and 159 in the five playoff games with an average re-score of just 168 total points and a median re-score of 170. Misleading totals were also the case in the regular season when the Over went 2-1 as those games were also slow with pace re-scores of just 165, 168, and 170 points.

These misleading final scores have now created value with the Under tonight as using all games this season, and factoring in the slower pace of playoff games in general, would make a fair Over/Under line of just 169.5 for tonight's game. The oddsmakers have now set the highest total of this playoff series tonight, despite the fact that Game 5 had the slowest pace of play so far. Both teams shot well above their normal percentages from the field, including Philadelphia who hit 47% and the Celtics who made 52% of their shots and scored 101 points. These weak defensive efforts by both teams should lead to more focus on defense tonight in Game 6.

These are the two least efficient offensive teams remaining the playoffs, however both teams do play solid defense and are the two most efficient defensive teams remaining in the postseason. The Celtics allow just 88.7 points per game and 41.8% FG (versus opponents that average 95.1 ppg and 44.4%). Philadelphia is permitting just 89.2 points per game and only 42.9% FG (versus opponents that average 94.9 ppg and 44.5%). The Sixers have been even stronger defensively at home where they allow just 85.7 points per game and only 41.5% FG this season.

10* Play UNDER the total.

Indiana blew a golden opportunity to take a commanding 3-1 series lead on Sunday afternoon. The Pacers took an 8-point lead (54-46) into halftime, but they played a terrible second half and lost 101-93. That loss was a major blow to the inexperienced Pacers team, especially since that game was on their home court. We expect Indiana to have a hangover in tonight

Los Angeles blew a golden opportunity to tie this series up at 2 games apiece on Saturday night. The Lakers had a 10-point lead at the half, and they took a 9-point lead into the fourth quarter. But their defense failed them over the final 12 minutes of the game as they allowed Oklahoma City to score 32 points. And when the Lakers only scored 20 points, the Thunder walked out of Los Angeles with a 103-100 win in Game 4. For the game, Oklahoma City shot 49.4% (38-77) from the field and 37.5% (6-16) from three-point land. The Lakers also sent them to the free throw line 25 times, and the Thunder hit 21 of those attempts. In order for Los Angeles to avoid a season-ending loss tonight, their defense must step-up and play better, and we

The Spurs overcame a 24-point deficit in the first half on Saturday and outscored the Clippers 80-46 in the final two-and-half quarters for a 96-86 win. It was the Spurs 17th straight victory (17-0 SU and 15-1-1 ATS) with that only non-cover actually being the Spurs' Game 4 win at Utah in the last round in which San Antonio only won by 6 points as a -7.5 point favorite.

The Spurs now hold a 3-0 lead in this series and the Clippers know their season is finished as teams down 0-3 are normally swept. This often leads to a more open style of play in Game 4 and both teams are playing without rest tonight, so fatigue might also lead to weaker defense and a more lackadaisical style this evening.

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league as the Spurs average 103 points per game and 48% FG, while the Clippers average 97 ppg and 46% FG this season. The three regular season meetings all went Over the total as did Game 1 of this playoff series which totaled 200 points. Game 2 totaled 193 points, but then Game 3 yesterday totaled just 182 points. This has now caused the oddsmakers to lower the total in Game 4 tonight which has created nice line value.

Despite the low score yesterday, the pace was still rather fast with my mathematical re-scoring pace model totaling 194.5 points. The average re-score of the six meetings this season has been 194 with a median re-score of 194.5. The Over was 4-1 in the first five meetings before yesterday with 205, 190, 228, 200, and 193 points scored in regulation time in each game for an average score of 203 points with a median score of 200 total points.

10* Play OVER the total.

A very unusual scheduling situation in Game 4 tonight as these teams have to play without rest after just playing Game 3 last night. The reason is because the L.A. Clippers and Los Angeles Kings are also hosting playoff games this weekend. In fact, there will be four basketball and hockey playoff games played in the Forum on Saturday and Sunday.

This quick turnaround and no-rest situation should favor the younger and more athletic Thunder tonight. Oklahoma City will also be extra focused after suffering their first playoff loss of the season last night. The Thunder are still 6-1 SU in the postseason, so they present excellent value in a straight-up win situation this evening.

The Lakers shot an incredible 41-for-42 (98%) from the free throw line last night and still only won by 3 points. This was second best free throw shooting percentage in NBA Playoff history (minimum 30 attempts) and it is unlikely to happen again tonight. Overall, Oklahoma City has dominated the head-to-head meetings this year and their only other loss versus the Lakers was a double-overtime defeat on April 22nd in which the Thunder blew an 18-point lead, including a 16-point lead entering the fourth quarter. Oklahoma City defeated the Lakers in the other two regular season meetings by 15 and 9 points in which they held 16 and 19 point leads. The Thunder also easily won Game 1 last Monday by 29 points and held a 35-point lead.

The fact that the past two games have been close should ensure a very focused effort by the Thunder in Game 4 tonight and the no-rest situation will favor the more athletic and talented Oklahoma City squad.

10* Play THUNDER.

Boston bounced back strong as expected in Game 3 the other night; the Celtics played a perfect game in their 107-91 win over Philadelphia. The Celtics shot an incredible 51.9% (40-77) from the field and 45.5% (5-11) from three-point land. They also knocked down 22 of their 28 free throw attempts. Boston played an all around game, but we do not expect them to repeat that effort tonight, especially against the strong Philadelphia defense. The 107 points allowed by the Sixers

Miami and Indiana both played terrible offense in Game 2 on Tuesday night. The Heat scored just 75 points on 34.6% (27-78) shooting from the field and 6.2% (1-16) shooting from three-point land. The Pacers scored just 78 points on 37.8% (28-74) shooting from the field and 20% (3-15) from three-point land. They also combined to miss 17 free throws in that game. We can

Philadelphia came through for us in Game 2 with their 82-81 win as 4

Los Angeles survived their brutal 7-game series with Memphis. All seven of those games were extremely physical with a lot of fouls called on both teams. But this series with the San Antonio Spurs figures to be played totally different. The Clippers preferred style of basketball is to get out and run while scoring easy baskets in transition. They were unable to do that against the stout Memphis defense, but they

Los Angeles comes in off a brutal 7-game series with the Denver Nuggets. That grind had to take a lot out of the Lakers, and with just one day to recover, we do not anticipate them being at their best tonight. Los Angeles has a losing road record (16-20) this season, including a 1-2 mark in the playoffs. The Lakers did not fare too well against Oklahoma City during the regular season as they went just 1-2 SU in those games with the two losses coming by 15 and 9 points. Only one of those games was played in Oklahoma City and that was Los Angeles

Philadelphia played much better in Game 1 than expected. The Sixers lost 92-91 which was impressive considering that they played that game with just 1 day of rest after knocking off the #1 seeded Bulls in six games. Their Game 6 win over Chicago was dramatic; the Sixers hit two free throws to win the game with less than 3 seconds left to play. The fact that this young team with zero playoff experience was able to play without a hangover in Game 1 was very encouraging. And since they are off a loss coming into tonight

After trailing 3-1 in this series, Denver has won the last two games to force tonight

Denver bounced back strong in Game 5 after losing at home in Game 4. The Nuggets won 102-99 on Tuesday night, and we expect them to play a better game tonight. Denver won while shooting just 15.8% (3-19) from the three-point land. The starters also out-scored the second unit by just 2 points (52-50). That is a positive sign for the Nuggets, and if they can play a better overall game tonight, there should be no reason they won

Chicago

New York is on the brink of elimination as they come into tonight

Denver certainly wants to forget about Game 4. The Nuggets blew a fourth quarter lead after scoring a total of just 37 points in the second half. The 88 points scored by Denver in the game tied their lowest point total since February 15th when they scored just 84 points in a loss at Dallas. Off the terrible performance, we expect the Nuggets to bounce back strong tonight, especially point guard Ty Lawson. Denver

Denver comes into tonight

All three of the games in this series have come right down to the wire with Los Angeles owning two 1-point victories and Memphis owning a 7-point win in Game 2. And since Memphis is off an 87-86 loss in Game 3, we anticipate a strong bounce back effort from the Grizzlies tonight. Despite being down 2-1 in the series, Memphis has actually played the better basketball. The Grizzlies blew a 27-point lead in Game 1 and they blew a 7-point lead in the fourth quarter in Game 3. If not for that, Memphis could very well be up 3-0 in this series. The fourth quarter has hindered Memphis as they

Denver bounced back strong in Game 3 after losing the first two games in Los Angeles. The Nuggets won 99-84 on Friday night, and we expect them to play a better game tonight. Denver won while scoring less than 100 points and shooting just 39.8% (37-93) from the field. That is a positive sign for the Nuggets, and if they can play a better overall game tonight, there should be no reason they won

The Spurs are coming off a pair of easy blowout wins in Games 1 & 2 and both games totaled just 197 points and stayed Under the total. However, those final scores were misleading as the pace of both games was still fast and Utah is likely to perform much better offensively in Game 3 at home tonight. This game also fits a 62% Over situation and we now get adjusted line value as this total is nearly 5 points lower than the original Over/Under line in Game 1.

My re-scoring pace model totaled 205 and 207 total points in Games 1 & 2 based on the total possessions and normal offensive efficiency for each team. The Jazz shot well below their expected field goal percentages in the past two games, hitting just 42% and 34% from the field, including just 17% from three-point range on Wednesday. Those numbers are likely to improve tonight on Utah's strong home court where the Jazz like to push the pace and play at a fast tempo.

These teams played two regular season games with full lineups on both teams (Ginobili missed the other two games) and those two games with full lineups totaled 211.5 and 219 based on my re-scoring pace model as the tempo was fast in both games. Both teams have been strong offensively this season as the Spurs average 103.8 points per game and 47.9% FG (versus opponents that allow just 96.9 ppg and 44.9%), while the Jazz average 99.3 points and 45.4% FG (versus opponents that allow just 96.9 ppg and 44.9%). Utah has also been a much stronger offensive team at home where they average 102 points per game and 46% FG and they will now be facing a Spurs' defense that has been suspect on the road this season where they permit 99 ppg and a terrible 47% FG.

10* Play OVER the total.

The Jazz have always been a much stronger team at home as they enjoy a unique home court advantage due to the thin air and altitude of Salt Lake City. This home/road dichotomy was extreme and very evident this season as the Jazz are 25-8 SU at home, compared to just 11-24 SU on the road, including those two blowout losses at San Antonio in Games 1 & 2 of this series.

Those results have now vastly inflated the line in Game 3 tonight as my power ratings using all games this season makes San Antonio only a 3.5-point road favorite, so we get nice line value, and the Jazz also fit a strong 65% ATS bounce-back situation after their embarrassing 15 and 31 point losses on the road.

The Jazz should bounce back with a strong effort in front of their home fans tonight as the Jazz are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Utah is 19-13 ATS in all home games this season, compared to 14-20 ATS on the road. Utah has also been an excellent offensive team at home where they average 102 points per game and 46% FG and will now be facing a Spurs' defense that was suspect on the road this season where they permit 99 ppg and a terrible 47% FG.

9* Play JAZZ (+).

These teams were 3-0 Under in the three regular season meetings, but surprisingly both playoff games have gone Over the total. This has now created solid value with the Under in Game 3 tonight as the pace of play was actually slow in both of those games. In fact, my re-scoring pace model totaled just 183.5 and 181.5 in the past two games. The only reason those games went Over the total is because both teams shot well above their normal percentages from the field.

Game 1 was a strangely played game as Memphis blew a 27-point lead in the fourth quarter and lost 99-98 after dominating for three quarters. Los Angeles got excellent production out of their second unit as they combined to score 49 of the Clippers 99 total points. The Clippers also shot 50% from the field for the game after shooting in the mid 30

Los Angeles held serve at home and the series goes to Denver with the Lakers up 2 games to none. Game 1 was a fluky result with the Lakers winning by 15 points (103-88). We saw a truer result in Game 2 with the Lakers winning by just 4 points (104-100). These two teams are just about equal across the board and the recent 4-point margin fell right in line with the previous results between the Lakers and Nuggets this season. In four regular season meetings, every game was decided by single digits. In the eight quarters played so far in this series, six of them were either tied or won by just 3 points or less after 12 minutes of play. That shows just how close these two teams are on the court.

Denver

Miami held serve at home and they head to New York with a 2-0 series lead over the Knicks. The Heat played well as they scored 104 and 100 points in the two games on 50.3% (72-143) shooting from the field and 40.5% (17-42) shooting from three-point land. Miami has also benefited from a favorable whistle in their two home games; they

Game 1 was a strangely played game that we do not expect to repeat itself. Memphis blew a 27-point lead in the fourth quarter and lost 99-98 after dominating for three quarters. Los Angeles got excellent production out of their second unit as they combined to score 49 of the Clippers 99 total points. Caron Butler also scored 12 points, but he broke his left hand and he is out indefinitely. That means Los Angeles

Denver certainly wants to forget about Game 1. The Nuggets played a terrible game as they scored just 88 points on 35.6% (32-90) shooting from the field and 28.6% (4-14) shooting from three-point land. The 88 points scored by Denver was their lowest point total since February 15th when they scored just 84 points in a loss at Dallas. That snapped a string of 37 games in which Denver

Denver comes into tonight

Boston played a terrible Game 1 on Sunday night as they scored just 74 points while scoring 18 points or less in three of four quarters. The Celtics shot just 39% (32-82) from the field and they failed to hit a three-pointer going 0-11 from beyond the arc. They also attempted just 13 free throws in that game. But despite all of that, Boston trailed by just 4 points late in the game. The Celtics lost all of their momentum when Rajon Rondo got ejected for bumping a ref late in the game; Atlanta took advantage and closed the game out. Rondo is suspended for tonight

New York couldn

Los Angeles will be making their first playoff appearance in 6 seasons when they play at Memphis tonight. While some individual Clippers have playoff experience, the team as a whole does not, and we anticipate some nervous energy tonight. Los Angeles will also face a different style of basketball tonight after playing nothing but fast-paced, high-scoring teams over their final nine games of the season. The Clippers

These two teams met in the conference finals last season with Dallas beating Oklahoma City in four of the five games played. This season, the Thunder won three of the four head-to-head meetings between the teams. Tonight

Washington has had a terrible season; the Wizards go into tonight

Cleveland has had a miserable season; the Cavaliers come into tonight

Golden State is simply waiting for the season to end. The Warriors are playing with a mash unit and head coach Mark Jackson has turned the rest of the season over to his young guys. Golden State will start four rookies once again tonight; they lost their last game at home by 12 points after scoring just 87 points in that game. Golden State will also be playing their first three games in three nights set of the season beginning tonight in Dallas. The Warriors have lost six consecutive games coming into tonight while going just 1-5 ATS in those games. Every one of those six losses has come by 8 points or more, including a road loss at Denver by a whopping 39 points. Golden State

Oklahoma City played their worst offensive game of the season on Monday night. The Thunder scored just 77 points after shooting an ugly 37.5% (27-72) from the field and an abysmal 22.7% (5-22) from three-point land. Oklahoma City also missed 11 free throws in that game as they shot just 62.1% (18-29) from the line. The Thunder actually had 52 points scored at the half in that game, but they played an embarrassing second half when they scored a total of 25 points in 24 minutes of basketball. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook both played awful games as they only combined for 33 points on 32.4% (11-34) shooting from the field, including a dismal 8% (1-12) shooting from three-point land. Prior to their awful game on Monday night, Oklahoma City had scored 115 points in each of the previous two games. We expect them to get back to their scoring ways in a major way in this game tonight.

Phoenix has played little defense as of late. The Suns have allowed 105 points or more in three straight games while allowing 47% shooting from the field in those games. Phoenix

San Antonio is in a terrible scheduling spot for tonight

These two teams just played five days ago with Los Angeles winning 100-98 at Oklahoma City. That was the third meeting of the season between the Thunder and Clippers, and it was also the third high-scoring game between the two teams. All three of the games played between the teams this season have seen 198 points scored or more; the three games had an average of 205 points scored. Oklahoma City

Memphis has been playing in some important playoff implication games recently. The Grizzlies have faired well in those games as they are 8-2 SU over their last ten games. But tonight

Utah won 103-91 at Houston on Wednesday night; it was just their 10th road win of the season. The Jazz played that game with a short rotation and they

Phoenix has been playing better basketball of late; the Suns are 5-1 SU and ATS over their last six games. But the Suns have been in terrific scheduling spots for those games. However, that is not the case tonight as Phoenix will be playing their fourth game in six nights and their sixth game in nine nights. Five of those six games have also come on the road. Phoenix also has a huge game on deck at Houston on Friday night; the Suns are battling with the Rockets for the eight and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Phoenix will also play tonight

These two teams just met nine days ago with Boston beating Miami by 19 points (91-72). The Heat played an inexplicably bad game, and it was perhaps their worst effort of the season. Miami

Houston has won three straight road games coming into tonight; the Rockets won at Chicago, Los Angeles, and at Sacramento last night. However, off such high profile wins against teams like the Bulls and Lakers, the Rockets

Philadelphia comes into tonight

These two teams just played on Thursday night with the Clippers winning 93-85 in Sacramento. It was the second 8-point victory for Los Angles over the Kings this season; they won 108-100 back in early March. Both games were highly competitive as seven of the eight quarters between the two teams were decided by 4 points or less with the other quarter being just a 6-point margin. The two close games played so far this season have not been an aberration as the last five games between the Kings and Clippers have all been decided by 8 points or less. And there

Oklahoma City comes into tonight

Boston comes into tonight