Florida +5

U Conn is a solid team no doubt and so is Florida. U Conns claim to fame is a very very good backcourt and I have no argument there, but Florida in their last 5 games has defended the perimeter well, and allow just 58 ppg and 39% from the floor and 25% from 3 point range. U Conn when playing good teams this year, beat BC by 2, Indiana by 1 and Maryland by 1. I do not see a huge spread difference in this game which should be low scoring, I will grab the points and the Gators who KNOW this is a crucial game as they have 2 ranked opponents on deck including Kansas.

Play 1 Unit on Florida

Southeast Mo State -4

Off a huge win over Tulane SEMO continues to roll in this tourney after 2 blowout wins. SEMO hits the boiards hard and had a season high 5 point percentage and look to continue the roll against SW Texas State today.

Play 1 Unit on SEMO

Arizona -2.5

Duke had an easy time against Alabama in this tourney but I like the DEFESE of Arizona and especially on the perimeter. Duke is relying a lot on frosh sensation Parker and I think the cats can defend him. Also the offensive glass is an issue as Arizona should dominate for some easy points. Oddsmakers begging you to take Duke as a dog, I am laying it.

Play 1 Unit on Arizona

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY on SE Missouri State -8 to 8.5 to crush N Kentucky.

Portland -3.5

I always like home dogs like last night, but riding a red hot Portland team here tonight. The Suns defense in their last 5 games is 10 points worse than Portland, and Portland

New Orleans +2.5

Going contrarian here as Golden St has injury issues big time and Igoudala is out and Curry is working back into the the system after missing 2 games. The Warriors are too good to lose 4 straight? Well New Orleans is off a bad loss to San Antonio but had won 3 straight going into that game with some insane offense, scoring 108 ppg their last 5 games and they are 5-2 at home. I always like going against road teams Holiday week as well, and Golden State shorthanded here tonight and New Orleans plays their best defense at home. Bogut questionable tonight as well for GS and they have went 1-3 their last 4 road games. Oddsmakers begging you to take Golden St, I am going against that. Good side for half a NBA teaser as well.

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans

LA Lakers -4

Kings 1-3 on the road this season and LA has been hot at home, as their last 2 games played were at home and they won those 2 games by a combined 29.5 points OVER the spread, with their offense clicking. Willing to lay it here against a bad road team.

Play 1 unit on LA Lakers

This Pacer defense will smother Boston's anemic offense, they only avg. scoring 93 while Indy only allows 87. Paul George is averaging over 24 per game for the Pacers. The Pacers should own Boston here. I don't look for it to be close.

Play one unit on Indiana Pacers

Minnesota -4.5

This line shooting up, opened at 3.5 and could be 5.5 or higher. Reason? Wizards John Wall is playing terrible, the Wiz are allowing 104 ppg and Kevin Love and the T-Wolves are hot and scoring 108 ppg on offense against a team short handed and that plays no defense.

Play 1 Unit on Minny

NY Knicks +1.5

Home team here and while the ATS trends do not favor the Knicks, bear in mind they are playing a tired team who in the last 3 nights have played 2 OT games. That takes a toll on the road and they are playing the Knicks who are 9th in the NBA in defense on some tired legs. JR Smith stepping up and the Knicks bench is deeper in this one as well. Also Harden is very questionable tonight for Houston and after much research and a few phone calls it is very doubtful he plays, and Houston off a very tough loss to the 76ers. Love the set up here with a home dog on TNT.

Play 1 Unit on the Knicks.

Michigan State has the more experienced team here. Kentucky has a great team but a lot of freshman to work into the game plan. I like Tom Izzo

UNDER 188 - 189

Yes tired and worn out always gives into sloppy defense and more points scored but I was damn lucky to win the Over in Game 6 with OT and while this should be a hell of a game, defense is going to be key for both teams, especially Miami in order tog et the win. A Chess match between 2 good coaches and 2 very good teams who will leave it all out there and the refs are letting them play which also means reeduced free throw attempts. I see 183 as a power number here with my adjustments.

Play 1 Unit on ther UNDER

OVER 191

Both teams shooting for the stars tonight and both teams role players stepping up. I do not think the Spurs can match their last games shooting intensity however the small lineups are producing points and I expect James and company to pull out all the stops at home where they average dame near a 100 ppg this season and San Antonio has found their shooter in Green and Ginobli has stepped up as well and Parker will have his as well, and Duncan always good for 17-20 points.

Play 1 unit on the OVER

OVER 188

Heats last 5 4 road games have went over - Spurs last 5 home games have went over. Expect both teams to so small tonight and I expect the Spurs Parker to play better with rest and Ginobli to have a better shooting performance. A lot on the line tonight for both teams,m they will open it up.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

Bonus Side Play - HALF UNIT - Spurs +1.5

Miami +1

Let

San Antonio -2

Spurs one of the best home teams in the NBA, off an embarrassing ass kicking in Game 2. Miami

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 188

Expect James and company to shoot better and for both teams to be loose here. Both teams limited turnovers in game 1 and with a more up tempo pace here I feel in game 2 there will be a few more turnovers and that leads to transition points. Miami averages over 100 points at home and this one here I feel they open it up and pull out all the stops, and the Spurs can keep pace.

Miami -5

Best team in the NBA on their home floor, best player in the game, matcup issues are not a problem in this one like it was for Miami against Indiana and even Chicago, and Spurs off a long layoff, with Miami dominating their last game 3 days ago. Home court worth 4 here, and Miami is more than 1 point better than the Spurs. Respect the Spurs and coach Pop to show up ready, but Miami will make a statement and with decent looks outside I like them here to score close to 100.

Play 1 Unit

Indiana +7.5



The Pacers can defend James, and dominate the paint and win in Miami. Again 7.5 points is a huge number in the NBA and no one is here by accident and the Pacers playing better now and James and company having chemistry issues and scoring issues with their big 3 overall and Wade not a 100% is hurting them. I think Miami can get the win but the Pacers will not go down without a fight in any remaining games and are very well coached as well. Take the generous points. Miami is a horrible cover team at home in the post season.



Play 1 Unit on Indiana

Miami -2.5

Tyhe last game was a 2 point line on Miami and they win by 18 and now the line for game 4 has increased a half point. As I stated in my play on Miami in that game, they can and did figure out how to nuetralize the inside game of Indiana and other players picked up the scoring around LeBron. Indiana is not a scoring team and Miami is, even if they do not play as good as defense. With San Antonio on the sidelines, Miami wants to end this and rest up ASAP, they are the better team and proved it in Game 3, nothing will change. Indiana out gunned on offense here and cannot trade punches on the scoreboard if Miami brings their A game. Miami by 6 for a 1 UNIT Play.

Over 180.5 Spurs / Griz

Elimination game for the Griz and San Antonio last 6 have went over, the Griz's last 4 home games have went over and both teams will pull out all the stops here and put up points. Not a big enough ;line adjustment by oddsmakers.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

Miami -1.5

Short and sweet. Miami is SOLID on the road and after a home split in this series, they come in here with the better team and I look for them to get some more scorers involved and take the heat off of LeBron and spread it around today. Play 1 Unit on Miami

Seattle -120

Yes King Felix has had a rough go of it and Holland for the Rangers looks like the play- but I expect King Felix to redeem himself tonight in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Seattle


NBA Side Play Winner Saturday off a SU Dog Winner for you on my TGIF Discounted card with the Pacers as the run in the NBA Playoffs is now 17-8 and I am cashing out the Side Play in the Spurs and Griz Game 3 tonight. Have NO Doubts again!

Memphis -5.5

6-0 SU at ATS at home for Memphis and now they get home where they can shoot the ball better and I doubt that the Spurs can match the first 2 games in terms of 3 point shooting. There is a HUGE rebounding edge for Memphis in this series and they have yet to expose that for points with the Spurs lights out shooting. I will lay the number here as oddsmakers are tipping their hand with this line.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis to get one here. Must Win!

Play 1 Unit on Indiana +7.5 - Like the Pacers to cover and expect both teams a little tighter tonight. Laying big points at home for the Heat, who have won at home this year but carrying a premium number has not been an easy cover for them.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 181.5

Look for a well rested Miami team to open it up tonight. The last game these guys played back in March was 196 points. I think Miami comes out purpose tonight and gets it done but not willing to lay a big number with Wade's condition and Indiana not here by accident, they were better than the Knicks. This series has went OVER in 5 out of the last 6 games.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

Memphis +5.5

The Griz did not get this far by accident and I expect them to play it closer to the vest tonight and I doubt San Antonio can match the game played in game 1 which was stellar. The write-ups are getting old and quite frankly Memphis could overall be the better team here but this one they keep close. The Spurs were lights out from 3 point range and Randolph for the Griz made 1 shot shooting..that will not repeat itself tonight. The Griz are 5-0 ATS after an ATS loss and I expect them to bounce back big tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis

MLB BONUS PLAY

Analysis: Under 179.5 Pacers / Knicks

These 2 got to 160 the other night with NY knowing they had to score like crazy in transition to beat the Pacers at home, and yet these 2 mustered only 160 points. The last 3 have went under and more of the same Saturday. NO ADJUSTMENT from oddsmakers here and the Pacers play defense at home and neither team, especially Indiana, a huge offensive threat. This number should be 172 in my book on power ratings, I am all over the Under.

Play 3 Units on the UNDER

San Antonio -1.5

PLAY 1 Unit Each

Miami -14



Insane to lay 14 in the post season in 99% of the cases out there. While Chicago stunned Miami in Game 1 in Miami, a place where the Heat are 40-5 SU on the year, I do not see it happening again. Wade played terrible and the Heat won by 23 on the road on Monday. Bottom line is after a defeat like that and then taking to the road in an elimination game against the Best Team inb the NBA who is totally focused and KNOWS the Bulls beat them on their home floor, the Heat will close this out big time on Wednesday. 20 point win

Miami -7 to 7.5

Watch the Heat get ti done tonight again. Bench scoring is non existent from the Bulls and starters are wearing down playing an average of 42 minutes each. Miami CLEARLY better, Chicago short handed and resorting to schoolyard tactics on defense to try and stop Miami. The Bulls also lost their composure in the last game and I expect Miami to drop the hammer tonight and use their depth to keep the train going. Miami

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 198.5

Whole world has been betting over in this series. The Spurs flexed their muscle, and also realized with their experience that to win this series they cannot outscore or attempt to trade punches on the scoreboard with GS, they need to play defense. With both Curry and Parker not 100% I like the under here in a tight game.

Memphis -5

First of all the line is a dead giveaway oddsmakers are begging you to OK City. Secondly the inside game of the Griz at home is going to a huge difference, and they are undefeated in the playoffs at home and have lost only 1 game here since early Feb.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis

Golden State -2

Short and Sweet. The Warriors at home are MONEY and the last 2 games basically they dominated the Spurs all but for about 5 minutes. The scoring at home for GS is going to be something San Antonio cannot match up to on the scoreboard in my opinion. Going with the hot hand and Curry and company at home laying less than a 3 pointer to win SU by 6-7 points. I have this line at -6 for Golden State, 4 point overlay.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

San Antonio -7

Look for the Spurs to adjust on defense and play better at home. They held LA to under 85 in their first round series but with the OT in game 1 and a win when they should have lost, they will be far more prepared, especially on defense to make some adjustments and take serious advantage of their home court tonight. San Antonio far to experienced to let this series get away and keep letting the Warriors shoot uncontested shots and get out of their game plan. Golden St is dangerous but play no defense and I willing to lay the points here.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio

OVER 186 OK City / Memphis

Line the same as game 1 and that total ended at 184. I expect more scoring now that these 2 have felt themselves out and bear in mind that in the last 5 games, both teams have averaged over 100 points. I expect not such a tight contest in terms of scoring here and both teams to open it up and for Memphis to get a ton of points inside and for OK City to open it up in transition.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

Miami -12



The Heat will run the Bulls into the floor. Bulls without a true point guard right now and short handed and all that against a rested Heat team at home who should exceed 100 points tonight in a blowout.



Play 1 Unit on Miami

Pacers +5.5

I expect a low scoring game here and despite the Pacers lack of success on the road in the round 1 series against Atlanta, they did close it out on the road and in what I expect to be a low scoring game, this is a good deal of points and I will take them. You get teams laying 5+ points in round 2 and the dogs are gonna cover gents, anyone playing right now is a good team. The Knicks are inconsistent and this is a big number.

Play 1 unit on Indiana

OK City +1

Yes I backed the Rockets on Wednesday but oddsmakers have adjusted this line down to manageable number with the better team. OK City should tame it down, play alittle defense and spread it around more now that they can get some things lined out without Westbrook in the mix here. I do not see the Thunder advancing past the next round however they ARE better than Houston with their back against the wall and off a horrific performance, with their post season experience from last year and their pride in play here, I like them to win a tight one and cover the small number tonight.

Play 1 Unit on OK City

NBA Friday from Tony George

Golden State -1

Taking the Warriors here to pull the upset and win the series. When you play no defense, and neither team really does, but when you give up 110 ppg in your last 10 and score 106, you are going to find yourself on the losing end in the post season. Golden State is 30-13 at home this year and with all crap surrounding Denver beating up on Curry, the friendly confines of being at home with a fired up home crowd provide a homecourt here worth 4 points in my opinion. Better from 3 point range, better from the free throw line, and the best player on the floor all belong to Golden State not to mention the home court advantage. Denver on the road is a different animal winning only 11 out of 24 games this year against opponents with over a .500 record. All in all I like Golden State in this spot and look for them to be better in the paint after what Denver did to them in the last game down low.

Play 2 Units on Golden State

Houston +8.5

Too many points, OK City not the same without Westbrook and Durrant easier to defend. Also the Rockets are getting a ton of cheap boards. Both teams are scoring 105 per game their last 5 and with a team who scores triple digits consistently, giving them almost 9 points is insane, and I do not care if the Thunder are at home or not.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

Brooklyn -5.5

You would expect this number to be smaller, but oddsmakers know who is going to cash out here and it is the Nets. Off a 3 OT deal in the last game, it is tough to travel and play on the road after a game like that. Nets face elimination here expect their best.

Play 1.5 units on Brooklyn.

OK City -1.5 to 2

No defense and a poor outing last game for OK City, they are vastly better in all phases even without Westbrook, they will pick it up tonight and play hard in Westbrook s absence. 1 UNIT

BONUS HALF Unit Play - Pacers +2.5

Boston +7



Play 1 Unit on Boston tonight, whose bench sucked lkast game and they allowed NY's defense to smother their efforts down the stretch, as Boston had the game in hand for 3 quarters. Boston good enough to adjust and hang tight in this one, I will take the generous points

OVER 181 - Clippers / Grizzlies

I like this number which is over adjusted from oddsmakers. A real close look at the ref's in this one as 2 of the 3 refs calling this game have huge OVERS numbers in the game they call. Another perspective is Memphis's last 10 games, 7 of them involved triple digits either for or against and the same scenario with LA. I expect both teams to open it up more than game 1.

Play the OVER for 1 Unit
.

Denver -

The NBA's BEST Home court record. 38-3! Last trip here Golden State was beaten by Double Digits and I love Denver and their offense at home in this opener.

Play 2 Units on Denver

Bucks -4.5



Must win for the Bucks here and a winnable road game for the Bucks who have dropped their last 4 roadies and are in a fight for 7th place in the Playoffs. Orlando scoring just 89 ppg and allowing 97 their last 5 games, all losses and Milwaukee KNOWs THEY CAN WIN A ROAD AFFAIER HERE AND THEIR OFFENSE SHOULD BE ABLE TO POST UP NEAR 100 HERE, I LIKE THEM TO COVER WITH EASE, AS THEY WILL BE FOCUSED.



Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee



Play a Half Unit on the LA Angles -125.

Louisville -3.5 -4

I have said all tourney they are the best team in this thing from the get go. I still feel that way, and Michigan has had some help along the way. Syracuse played like dog shit all last game and still were within 1 point with under a minute left. Kansas blew the game against them as well. Yes the Wolverines have some shooting guards but Louisville

Syracuse +2



Michigan needed Kansas to piss down their leg and not have any guard play in order to even be here, and while they looked impressive against Florida, the Gators are an SEC team and not a Big East team. I have rode Cuse all through this tourney and their defense is the KEY in this game, and while Trey Burke might have his points, Syracuse is going to shut down the Wolverines no matter how hot they are coming in here. Syracuse is a hidden gem in my opinion, and I am taki8ng them and their defense who shut down Marquette to a meager 39 points, and Cuse should win the inside game here.



Play 1 Unit on Syracuse.

OVER 132.5*** Wichita St - Louisville



Russ Smith will have a huge night here for the Cards and Wichita St has some weapons on offense as well, Armstead is a rock star player and runs the floor well. These 2 teams averaged 151 ppg their last 5 games on offense. Yes they play defense but this one is pull out all the stops and WS will try to keep pace with the Cards who I feel they cannot stop, so they will be gunning all night. Both teams offense rolled in all 4 of their games to get here. Louisville very experienced and will not be caught up in this whole huge scene and will do what they do best and that is score. . Offense will win this game, I love the Over the here. Side Play too close to call for a premium play at 10.5, but the Cards are the better team.



Play 2 Units on the OVER

76ers +6.5 to 7



Hawks laying a big number here and quite frankly Philly

Syracuse -4.5



Not sold on Marquette's dream run here and their shooting. Syracuse defense and 3-2 zone has proven death to about everyone who tries to contest it. Marquette got a short handed Miami but Syracuse's defense and larger lineup should prove to be a big issue for them, and Syracuse is the better team. Cuse lost by 3 at Marquette this year but got homered big time, Marquette shot 35 free throws in that game and Syracuse just 7. Do the math. Payback time.



Play 1 Unit on Syracuse



Play on Weber St +4 - BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY

Kansas -1.5

Experience. That is what counts here in what should be a great game in Dallas. KU not intimidated by a large scale scene, nor the pressures of Sweet 16 action, they are experienced and have plenty of star power, especially with Withey in the low post. Michigan

Louisiana Tech +8

Houston +

Wright State 1

1 unit

Duke -5

Miami -7.5

Miami is the second best team in this tourney behind Louisville right now and their guard play is way too much for Illinois to overcome. Any team who wins the ACC in dominating fashion gets the nod as a top 3 team and with Miami's team approach. coaching and ball screening up top with excellent guard play, against a middle of the Pack Big 10 team, it is a mis match. The last 3 good teams Illinois played were Ohio St, Michigan and Indiana, ALL double digit losses. Same goes here.

Play 3 Unit on Miami

Play 1 Unit each on:

Duke -5

LaSalle +4

Play 1 Unit each on:

LaSalle +4

Play 1 Unit each on These Games - 1.5 Units on Gonzaga as my Top Play - short on time no write-ups

Gonzaga -6.5 - TOP PLAY - 11-0 ATS after a non cover...they know how to bounce back- Shockers a good team but out manned here.

Play 1 Unit each on These Games - 1.5 Units on Gonzaga as my Top Play - short on time no write-ups

Illinois Chicago +13 - NIT Play- take the big points here. ICU plays good defense and should keep this one close.

Play 1 Unit each on These Games - 1.5 Units on Gonzaga as my Top Play - short on time no write-ups

St. Louis -3.5 - Hot team, better shooters and well coached. Oregon well coached but do not match up in talent or ability to hit the 3.

Play 1 Unit each on These Games - 1.5 Units on Gonzaga as my Top Play - short on time no write-ups

Louisville -10.5 - (9 out of last 10 games have been double digit wins against better teams)

Oklahoma +3 - Not sold on Mountain West after yesterdays performance outside of Colorado State who I had a free play and that was because Mizzou cannot win on the road. OU has beaten some good teams this year and while they went 0-2 to close out the year they have beaten Kansas ands can hang tough here. SDSU has shot 36% from the floor and 23% from 3 point range in their last 5 and cannot shoot free throws very well, and OU has an advantage on the boards as well. More offense means more points and I am getting 3 here. OU outright.

Play 1 Unit on OU

Kansas State -5.5 - The Wildcats get to play in Kansas City which is HUGE, the same floor they lost to Kansas on in the Sprint Center in the Big 12 finals, but also the same place where they beat Florida earlier this year. La Salle is without their starting stud center and also have injury issues and major depth issues in the paint. K State very good on defense and have a rotation of players who will put up points here in a motion offense liker La Salle has not seen. Home court advantage here worth allot, K State will win by 10. Play 1 Unit

Creighton -3.5 - You saw what Wichita State did to a Big East team yesterday, the Mo Valley is for real and Doug McDermott one of the top 3 players in the NCAA and Creighton is deep and talented and can put up points with anyone. Cincy a big east also ran who managed just 56 ppg on offense their last 5, The Blue Jays offense too much and have shot over 52% from the floor in their 5 games. Play 1 Unit

NC State -4.5

The nations 12th best offense and a team who reached the sweet 16 last year so experience and excellent guard play in an opening round game is always worth a strong look. Temple played 1 ACC team all year and that was a 23 point loss to Duke. NC State finished 3rd in the ACC and lost to eventual champions Miami in the semi's of the tourney so they are well prepared here. Temple lost in the opening round of the A-10 tourney and do not have the horses to hang tough here . NC State pulls away late in this one.

Play 2 Units on NC State

Play 1 Unit on St Louis at -2.5 and play a half unit on Miami -3 in the ACC

PLAY 1 Unit each - No Writeups - VERY short on time - Laying short numbers here with better teams except for ISU.

Oregon -3.5 - Dana Altman knows how to coach this time of year

Georgetown -2 - They simply own Syracuse

New Mexico -1.5 - Great road / Netral site team - Not sold on SDSU here

Iowa State +7 - 3rd time a charm? both games this year went into OT. If ISU gets hot it is on!

Michigan -3

Think Michigan wants thios one? Lost 9 out of 10 to Wisconsin and an OT loss on the road thisd year to them as well. Michigans offense and defensive glass rebounds make the difference in this one. Wisconsins offense sluggish at times and Michigan off a huge offense output in their last game, I like them in this spot for revenge and their shooting percentage from the floor is solid on nuetral sites as well. Wolverines is a tough one here against a nemisis and lots of frustration in an all out effort here with the 8th ranked team in the nation.

Play 2 Units on Michigan.

Play 1 Unit each

Play 1 Unit each

Play 1 Unit each

Evansville -2.5



The Purple Aces are my sleeper pick in this tourney. I like them here against a Indiana St team who is also dangerous but Evansville just beat these guys by 16 points in the last regualr season game and are 10 points better on offense and defense in their last 5 games. Evansville shooting the 3 point ball at a torrid 47% clip their last 5 games and have the offense and the pace to get this game to a point where ISU cannot keep pace on the scoreboard with their limited offense.



Play 1 Unit on Evansville



Bonus half Unit Play -Northern Iowa at a PICK

Southern Illinois -3



The Saluki's own the Bears. They are 11-3-1 ATS the last 15 meetings and while they split the series this season, Mizzou St is lesser of the two teams. They have scored 57 ppg their last 5 games which is their season average, a far cry from years past for the Bears who always have a good offense, but not this year and it will cost them here. Souther Illinois has covered 7 out of their last 8 games and have the better offense and MSU is NOT a team who can play from behind, they have no 3 point shooters at less than 30% from beyond the arc for the year. SIU is not a team that will rack up 70 a game either but are the better team here and I like them at this number. Mizzou St a good cover team, but this one here belongs to the Saluki's. Mizzou St a different animal on the road, clawless Bear so to speak.



Play 1 Unit on Southern Illinois.

Southeast Missouri State -4

SEMO is hot, winning 5 out of their last 7 and they have one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the Ohio Valley against a team who is the worst at defending the 3 point shooters. SEMO has scored 87 points a game their last 5 and have hot over 50% from the floor and 3 point range as well in that span, just unreal how hot they are on offense and did I mention they also are avenging a OT loss at Eastern Illinois earlier this season. I do not care about EIU

Tennessee -4.5

The Vols have to win out and have this game against bottom feeder Auburn and then a huge game on Saturday with Mizzou at home. They need both games so they will not be caught looking ahead here against a very beatable team and the Vols are off a loss against Bama so they will come in here with their ears pinned back against a team they already beat by 15 and held to 49 points on offense. Auburn has dropped 7 in a row and averaged 52 ppg on offense int ehri last 5 games. Tennesse simply outscores rthem here and covers the number in a must win game.

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee

Okie State +3

Yes Iowa State is in Hilton Arena but 5they have no answer on defense for Okie States Smart and he will have a big night here. Okie St may have the best player in the Big 12 on the floor here and ISU lives and dies by the 3 point shot and play little defense and that is not a good combination at home or away, PLUS Okie State needs to win out and beat Kansas State on Saturday to share part of the Big 12 Crown. Games like this separate the men from the boys and Okie State is a vastly talented team who beat Kansas on the road and while ISU is no slouch, especially at home, a ranked team getting points is always a trap linbe on the road, but I am playing the better team anyway, Iowa State finds ways to lose tight games, they have all season, and that has been one consistent with them. They also just got crap hammered at Oklahoma this past Saturday in a must win game and that is a confidence destroying loss. The KEY- Okie State defense. They defend the 3 point shot very well. Allowing less than 30% in their last 5 games.

Play 1 Unit Oklahoma State

Boise State +7.5

Already beat UNLV at home and the stats do not lie, Boise State is a solid ball club and are getting a ton of points here and Bennett for UNLV is not 10% in this one either. No doubt a strong homecourt for the Rebels but BSU has a better defense, offense, turnover ratio and better spread record than UNLV. Getting this many is a gift in what should be a 3 point game one way or the other. Go Bronco

Indiana -7.5

Cannot expect Ohio State in this building to get over on Indiana who is beating people by 26+ points at home this year, just ands UNREAL State. This is for the outright Big 10 Title, on a home floor where they have just 1 loss all year against 17 wins and against a team who struggles to score points on the road. Nothing comes easy this time of the year but Indiana in their last home game is a legit top 3 team overall in the nation and look to lock up a conference championship on one of the strongest home floors in the nation. No brainer. The Hoosiers are scoring over 85 ppg at home and allowing under 59

Illinois

Kansas Sate +

Yes I see it time and time again, a better team getting points on the road, but I am drinking ther koolaid here on K State. They beat teams that they are suppose to beat and there is a ton on the line here for KSU tonight. No team outside of Kansas and Okie State have better overall talent thatn Baylor in the Big 12....K State is close, but Bruce Webbers motion offense opens up tons of shooting spots for K State and Baylor has NO chemistry and their coaching staff simply cannot get them to put a game together. I hear that K State has beaten no one on the road, but that could be the same for Baylor who has lost to every good team they have played outside of 2 teams. K State playing for a share of the Big 12 title and need this game in order to it with 3 games left. K States TEAM approach and backcourt are the difference here in a tight one.

Play 1.5 Units on K State

Middle Tenn State -6.5 - With only losses on the year and playing here at Western Kentucky, MTSU has one of the best defenes in the nation and have allowed just 50 ppg their last 5 games and 57 pgg iont ehseason and already hammered West. Kent. by 19 alittle over a month ago.They also are 10-3 SU on the road. 1 Unit

Mizzou -13 - LSU has NO CHANCE in here with Mizzou who is 15-0 at home and will just beat the hell out of an LSU team who cannot compete at this loevel. Mizzou one of the toughest teams in the nation at home. 1 Unit

Kentucky +3.5 - Dreaded better team on the road getting points scenario but I think kentucky uner valued by the public and Oddsmakers in this spot. Arkansas erratic at best and I thinkKU gets a SU win here and they no doubt need this win to 100% secure a tourney bid and Calipari knows it. 1 Unit

ALL WRITEUPS LIMITED, Pressed for time after capping so many games.


Notre Dame +6 - Marquette ubndefeated at home and stout but Notre Dame holds a huige rebounding adavtahe and are an equal team in many respects. Like a tight onwe here, 3 points one way or the other. 1 Unit

Golden State +7

What the hell are the Knicks doing laying 7 points in any game to a team with a winning record? NY had dropped 5 games before beating an average Philly team 2 days ago (and did not cover) and yet they are taking on a Golden State team here off a tough loss at powerhouse Indiana last night and are on the third game of their east coast swing, currently sitting at 1-1 for the trip and laying a huge number. The Knicks offense is not near as potent as GS, and are 9 ppg less in output the last 5 games played. Grab the points here.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State.

Northern Iowa



The Pnathers are the only team in the Mo Valley NOT to lose to a team with a losing record this season. Southern Illinois is at the bottom of Mo Valley standings, Northern Iowa in the top 3 and 2 games out of first place and this is a crucial game for them in terms of conference tourney seeding. They lost to Denver in bracket buster play but ripped off 6 straight wins before that and won their last 3 roadies in the Mo Valley and by FAR are the better team here. They have beaten the Salukis by 11 ppg their last 4 meetings and already pounded them at home by 13. They were a 10.5 point fav in that game and now lay only 2.5? Confusing yes, I have this at -6 on the road, we are getting great line value against a team with only 4 conference wins all year.



Play 2 Units on Northern Iowa



BONUS PLAY - Oklahoma -2.5 for a half unit. They beat Texas by 6-8 points tonight.

Tennessee +9



Drinking the kool aid here giving a hot team 9 points at home against the gators who have Fraizer out in this game. Yes Florida is better and avenging a 5 point loss at home to the Vols here, but this game will be tighter than this spread in my opnion and home dogs with winning recods in conference action, especially this big number, are always a take in my book and Florida not all that good from the charity stripe and on the road that is doom. Florida wins by 5



Play 1 unit on Tennessee.

Wright St -



Good team here and 2 games behind Valprasio for the Horizon Conference lead sitting in third place, a HUHE game for them here against a beatable team on the road. Wright St has the second best road record in thuis conference at 8-5 SU and 8-1 ATS their last 9 roadies. They also are avenging a 6 point home loss to Illinois-Chicago back in January. The lost that game shooting 32% from the floor and 10% from beyond the arc. I do not see that happening here. Wright States defense allowing just 59 ppf their last 5 and I see a hard fought SU win here cobvering the 12 point. They were an 8 point fav at home last game, so oddsmakers over adjusted this line. Lots of wiseguys on ICU, I do not buy that, MUST WIN for the better team playing with revenge.



Play 1 Unit on Wright State.

Indiana -



Minny is in a free fall, and have been beaten in their last 2 games by lesser teams by 31 points and 19 points. Indiana deep, well coached and have an advantage in every single stats category in this game which is almost unheard of. The fact Minny's offense is in a serious fun at 51 ppg on offense their last 5 has me layinga short number with the number 1 team in the nation who are scoring 25 ppg more on offense per game and shooting almost 46% from 3 point land. Minny a go against team.



Play 1 Unit on Indiana

Pick: Cyclones
Analysis: Iowa State +1

Kansas has burnt me all year but I have stayed the course in go against spots with them against good offensive teams, and Iowa State, who lost to them in OT at Phog Allen this year surely applies. ISU is undefeated at Hilton Arena, and are an absolute beast in here. ISUhas as much talent as KU does up top and thern some. KU has a better frontcourt, but teams with good guard play will beat Kansas this year down the road, and being that this is the biggest game in Iowa State basketball, on ESPN, I like the homecourt point advantage here by 4 points, and we are getting a point on this line as of Sunday Night. I feel the offense, the guard play and the homecouert favor ISU here, and although Kansas held to TCU to 9 points on Saturday in the first half, I am not impressed with that revnge win. Iowa State better on their home floor, bottom line.

Play 1 Unit on Iowa State

Notre Dame -3



New focus on defense for Notre Dame is paying off and they are catching Cincy, on a strong home court today after the Bearcats have dropped 4 out of their last 5, and the Irish have already beaten Cincy by 6 on the road. Cincy has struggled on offense the last 5 games scoring just 58 ppg and they have struggled on the road this year scoring and have shot a mere 40% fromt he floor and 28% from 3 points range on the road. Too much offense from ND here and they shoot very well at home, at 48% fromthe floor. ND is 5 points better here, plus a 3 point home court advantage, so I like the line.



Play 1 Unit on Notre Dame



Bonus Half Unit Play - Golden State -1.5

New Mexico State -4



UTEP managed 39 points in their last road gameat Southern Miss and I likle the Aggies at home here laying a short number. NMSU is solid at home and are avenging a 1 point road loss way back in November. The Aggies are 12-1 SU at home and the Miners are 2-9 on trhe road this year. NMSU has a big rebounding edge here as well which equates to easy points, especially at home



Play 1 Unit on New Mexico State

Kansas State -3



Oddsmakers calling this a pick em game with this line basically, Texas shooting 39% from teh floor - less than 30% from 3 point range and K State still vieing for aq Big 12 crown and already beat Texas by 26 points last month- Mis-Match. K State beats team trhey are suppose to beat and are solid on the road.



Play 2 Units on K State

Georgetown +6.5



Battle of Titans here in a storied rivalry, Georgetown has covered 10 out of their last 11 and this game, with both teams allowing just 59 ppg their last 5 games is going down tothe wire, I am grabbing the big points here.



Play 1 Unit

Memphis -6.5


Already beat So Miss by double digits on the road, Memphis is streaking and tough at home, and So Miss has shot 29% from 3 point range thier last 5 games, not a come from behind team, Memphis the real deal with only 3 losses all year on a STRONG home floor.



Play 1 Unit on Memphis

San Antonio -3



Golden State at home is a good test, but fresh off destroying the Clippers on TNT last night I am not looking for a letdown spot here as San Antonio is hot and scoring lights out on offense. My Overlay on this game is 7 points, and that usually means a bigger move than 1 unit, but I have a team on back to back nigfhts here on a road trip so I hold this at 1 Unit abd stay true to flat betting this week. Spurs have wonj 10 straight against GS, covered 7 of those, and GS allows 108 ppg their last 5 against a hot offense is DOOM.



Play 1 Unit on the Spurs.

Miami -3

Not impressed with a Bulls win at New orleans to open up the second half, and Miami is till hot and love the national stage like tonight. They also are playing with revenge and know they never fare well at Chicago. The Bulls in this series have covered 4 out of the last 5 and won 3 out of the last 5 in this series straight up. Miami had a nice win over Atlanta on the road by 13 points and have covered 5 straight coming ion here. I like the revenge factor here big time for Miami, I am going with the better team, the best in the East in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Miami Heat

BONUS PLAY - Play a half Unit on Georgia +10

Boston +7

The Lakers are a hot mess, death of Jerry Bus in the mix now, and quite frankly why a team who has covered just 3 out of their last 10 games, whose last game they were hammered jacked by 24 points, and playing a Celtic team who is a cover machine at 8-2 ATS their last 10 games and lost by 7 last night, are favored by this many is beyond me. Altitude or not last night, Boston is 12 ppg better on defense their last 5 than LA who is allowing 105 ppg on defense and Kobe has no chemistry with this team and Nash is out in this one, and the Celtics already have a game under their belt to open the second half and in all ways in my mind are the better team. Last time these 2 played on the 7th of this month, Boston won by 21 and they are 16-7-1 ATS the last 24 games in this long standing rivalry series.

Play 1 Unit on Boston

Colorado St +3.5

Better stats season long than UNLV and Better stats in their last 5 games for the Golden Rams. Yes I am tasking a road team against a capable hom,e team here but Colorado State the better team here ands their defense is better as well. Colorado just 4 losses on the year and in their last 5 games are averaging 11 ppg more on offense than UNLV. They already beat UNLV by 6 earlier this year and UNLV has struggled as of late losing 3 out of their last 5 games including a loss to Air Force on the road where they managed 56 points, and CSU played them Saturday, on the road and scored 89 against them, and UNLV off a big win and SDSU this weekend, I do not see them beating 2 quality opponents back to back, I will take the points in a tight game, could be a buzzer beater here.

Play 1 Unit on Colorado State