#513 - Golden State -5.5 to  -6  *8:05 EST 

This line is going up bet it ASAP.  The Raptors blew their brains out last night trying to beat the Cavs and GS rolls in here on a 2 days rest after winning their last 4 games by  10, 21, 24 and 13.  The Warriors have caught their stride and against a tired defense allowing 107 their last 5 games I like them to blowout the Raptors tonight.  And when I mean tired Toronto is playing their 4th game in 6 days.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State   

#506 -  Memphis -2.5 to 3   *9 EST 

No doubt this line will go up.  Love the Griz at home who have dumped 2 straight games and have 3 days off after this game, and Denver off a 16-point win against a good Boston team now are an underdog?  It is the Nuggets 5th straight road game and 4th game in 56 days and I love to fade a team on a long road trip towards the end, and they are playing a team motivated to go into a small break with a win, and a team who has covered 7 out of their last 10 at home.  Bear in mind that big win over Boston that Denver had, 2 Boston starters were out.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis 

#513 . 514  - OVER 206.5 to 207  Cavs / Warriors  *8 EST

Any doubts about this?  Both teams have scorers all over the floor, LeBron has had 82 points the last 2 games, and I expect Curry and company to go ballistic at home tonight on the scoreboard.  This is not going to be a defensive battle, and Golden State doesn’t play any right now and of course the Warriors will play better at home.  I also expect a VERY confident Cavs team to keep pace and continue to spread it around and let King James do his thing and take over if need be. 

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

BONUS half Unit – Cleveland +4.5 to 5 

Thanks for all your NBA business this season, I appreciate it gents.  TG 

#511 - Golden State +2.5  *9 EST 

Look, Golden State since 2014 has been the best team ATS after a loss to cover the next game, and also have the highest number in point differential in the final score in that same time-frame when covering the next game off a loss.  Another issue is LeBron and Kyrie has a great performance with over 40 each to win Game 5, they will not have that same performance tonight and conversely NBA MVP Curry sucked from 3 point range, and I doubt the scoring duo of Golden State shoots that badly again.  Yeah, home court, but GS beat them in here last year and drank the Champagne and I say they do it again.  Deeper bench for GS counts big this deep onto the series, Green is back with a Vengeance, and Kerr has stressed since the ass kicking in the last game that defense will be a focal point tonight for the Warriors, and if Curry and Thompson get going, and Green does his thing, I think the Cavs are doomed.  Whole world betting Cleveland and the line not moving, do the math.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State.

IF this play is right, the NBA season is over and I want to thank you for your Pro Hoops business this year.  Not my best year but we finished decent.  I look forward to NFL. NCAA Football in a couple of months and hope to see you then, and of course MLB is selective but highly profitable right now.  TG 

#509 / 510

OVER 204.5 to 205  Cavs Warriors

Golden State at home will pull out all the stops, and Cleveland will try to stave off elimination and pull out all the stops.  Curry also found his karma again in Game 4 and Golden State shoots well at home.  Total shootout to try and win it, Green out does hurt GS, but their bench has been solid all season and the playoffs.

Play 1 Unit on the Over.

IF Golden State wins, I do appreciate all your support this NBA Season.  Not my best by any means, I will strive hard to kick ass next season to make up for a subpar effort in 2016.  Rare for me in the NBA, just not a great year. 

UNDER 207 to 206.5

Tight game here tonight, and I do not see a 30 pt blowout.  The key to Golden State winning games 1 and 2 was defense.  Thee key to the Cavs winning game 3, was defense.  Both teams will step it up tonight in what should be a physical game.

1 Unit on the Under 

Golden State - pk

What makes ANYONE think Cleveland can hang here.  Mis Matches all over the floor, no depth for the Cavs, lack of coaching, LeBron getting schooled and GS has put on a clinic in games 1 and 2 winning by 35 points Over the spread for Christs sake in 2 games combined.  Cleveland has not beat Golden State in 7 attempts dating back to last June (2015) and GS had covered all but 1 of those spreads.  Mis Match – Cavs at home is not worth this massive point swing by oddsmakers.

Play 2 Units on Golden State

Under 209 Cavs / Warriors

Short and Sweet.  Cleveland has to play better defense and adjust to the bench players of Golden State and I think they will, despite Tyron Lues inability to make adjustments in Game 1.  Cleveland did a hell of a job on Curry and Thompson allowing them just 20 points combined and Golden State stepped up and played defense in Game 1 and I think this will be a close to the vest, tight game.  These 2 teams in their last 5 games combined have scored and average of 204 on offense and allowed just 195 on defense.  

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#501 - Cleveland +6  *9:00 EST

Cleveland is healthy and well rested versus last year.  Golden St off a grueling  game series, and GS plays no defense.  You have a team here in the Cavs that is 19 ppg better on defense in the last 5 games catching 6 points with a motivated LeBron James.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland to keep it close

#719/720  UNDER 220.5 to 221   *9 EST Tip 

This will be a tight game as the Warriors stave off elimination.  Look for the Thunder to play big, work on rebounds, not allow second chance points and give GS all they want here.  I want nothing to do with the side play as bad as Golden State has looked on offense and laying a big number, but this should easily go under the big total here as this one will be tight to the vest and each team working the ball.

Play 1 unit on the Under

#717 - Toronto +10.5 – to 11   **8:35 EST

The Cavs are in a funk and not only have the Raptors figured out how to defend and take LeBron out of his game, Kevin Love is hurt and not contributing anyway and Toronto gets their big man Valanciunas back tonight who is offensive minded.  I like the Raptors to cover, Cleveland to win a tight one.  Nothing will come easy for Cleveland moving forward in this series.

Play 1 unit on Toronto 

#715 - Warriors -1.5   **9 EST Tip 

Great value here.  Look, this scenario has been played out for years, the NBA will favor, and the refs will favor Golden State.  The ONLY scenario the NBA wants is Golden State – Cleveland folks.  Why do you think the NBA did not suspend Green for a game with an obvious kick to the balls in the last game?   Golden State has been playing low key, the gloves come off tonight, expect both Curry and Thompson to have huge nights and for Golden State to go big in this game.  The Warriors have lost 13 all season, I do not see them losing back to back in the conference finals especially after the ass kicking they took on Sunday.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Toronto +6 to 6.5  

Home team tonight who is 8-1 ATS their last 9 at home against a team with a winning road record, off a 15 point win and catching 6 points.  Yes, drinking the Kool aid as oddsmakers begging you to take the points but 6 is too many, but if the defense played the last game by the Raptors, if employed tonight, they will keep this close and the coaching staff knows this for the Raptors.  Tyrone Lue has not had to adjust anything to this point, I am not sold on him as a head coach just yet.  Cleveland’s been on a hell of run, and now is an unusual position.  I do expect James to step up here and he will have his points but Toronto’s backcourt is playing better, they were just dead tired and fatigued in the Games 1 and 2.  Have their feet now on a strong home court.

Play 1 Unit on Toronto 

OVER 197.5 Cavs / Raptors 

Cleveland's offense on fire and if the Raptors want to compete, they must trade punches on the scoreboard with their backcourt, which is capable.  ONLY way they are going to win a game.  Cleveland 11-5 with the OVER in their last 15 Conference Finals Games, and Toronto is 24-6 on Overs their last 30 times they were beat by 10 or more in their previous game.

Play 2 Units on the OVER 

#705 - Thunder +8.5    *9:05 est tip 

This is a tight series, and one for the record books no doubt but this number is too high.  Curry not 100% and OK City overcame great odds in Game 1 and proved to themselves and everyone this is going to be an epic series.  The total at 223 tells you oddsmakers expect a shootout and when a team who can score and has 2 superstars and are better in the paint than GS are getting damn near double digits, I will take the big points.

Play 1 Unit on OK City.   

Cleveland –10 to 10.5

Toronto has played 14 games, both series to 7 games, both series nail biters and have injury issues and fatigue issues.  Cleveland on 8 days rest, undefeated, and quite frankly the better team with the NBA’s second best player in James who is on a mission, as well as the fast paced high octane offense of the Cavs hitting on all cylinders.  Depth is going to be an issue for the raptors tonight and one of the best guards has a thumb issue.  Cleveland at home will rock the house tonight.  BIG number to lay and oddsmakers begging you to take the points with Raptors off a huge win, but Cleveland lying in wait at home with a great offense.  I am not concerned about a rusty Cavs team, they have been practicing hard my sources tell me and are amped up for this opener.   You wont see a line this big again and of you do perhaps the Raptors are a take, but not in this spot.  A  tired team coming in here. 

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland

#543  San Antonio -1.5 to 2 max  **8:35 EST Tip

I am going to make this short and sweet. Forget stats and ect. You have a veteran team, deep on the bench with a legendary head coach with their back against the wall against a team they KNOW they can beat who they have overlooked and taken too lightly.  Leonard dropped his guard on defense in the 4th quarter last game, the Spurs simply pissed down their leg, and trust me, Coach Pop will have them thinking this is the Super Bowl tonight.  I like veteran experienced teams with their back against the wall laying less than a 3 pointer.  I expect Parker and Alridge to step it up and for Duncan and the rest of the boys to lead them to a win here.

Play 2 Units on San Antonio  

#539 / 540 - OVER 217 Golden St / Portland  **10:30 est tip 

They raised this line 2 points.  9 out of the last 11 in this series have went over, GS back at home and Curry going off.  I expect another shootout, and no defense.  Same OL Same OL.  Not enough line adjustment by oddsmakers. They cannot make this line high enough. 

Play 1 Unit on the Over.

OVER 214 Blazers / Warriors

8 out of the last 10 have went over and with GS having offensive issues in Game 3, have no illusions, they will come out gunning, and as usual neither plays much defense.  Both in the 100’s with ease tonight. 

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

Cleveland -5

More of the same.  Atlanta changed up their lineup and still could not win with a double digit lead. Cash money on the Cavs, as I see them closing out the series without a loss.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland

Golden State -3 to 3.5

No write up here as they get tedious game to game 2 days apart.  Golden St is the better team without Curry.  period.   This is a huge line drop just like Cleveland and I do not think Portland at home is worth 5-6 points in a line move.  GS continues to roll.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State 

#517 - Cavs -2 to 2.5  **&05 est tip

Short and Sweet.  2 double digit wins as a 7 point fav or more, and Atlanta grabs 5 points on the line for playing at home?  No thanks.  LeBron and company are red hot from the floor, and while they will not match their shooting performance from Game 2, they have too much firepower that is in sync for Atlanta to contend with.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland

Over 188 Miami / Toronto

A little bit of a zig zag thing for yesterday but Toronto's backcourt could not have played worse in game 1 and still made it to OT, however I see both teams opening up here tonight and for Toronto to play vastly better in the backcourt, which is their strength and where they have point production, and Miami will keep gunning as Wade and company try to make their mark again.

Play 1 Unit on the Over 

Over 196.5  Cavs / Hawks 

Neither team shot well, including Atlanta at under 38% in Game 1 and they still exceeded this number.  6 out of the last 8 in this series at Cleveland have went over the total and I expect BOTH teams to play better tonight and Cleveland's bench to continue to support.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#510 - San Antonio -7.5   *9:35 est tip 

The Spurs flex their muscle this time of year, a veteran head coach, experience galore on the roster, the best defender in the NBA on Durrant.  The Spurs waxed OK City in game 1 by 32 on a floor where they rarely, and I mean rarely lose if hardly ever over the past 2 seasons.  OK City outgunned and have not even won a game in here in 2 years.  Too much firepower, experience and depth, and Coach Pop just flat out can coach circles around Billy Donovan, as evidenced in Game 1.  Spurs cruise again.  Tough to recover from an ass kicking like the Thunder took, it just takes the wind out of your sales.

Play 1 Unit on the Spurs. 

Pacers +5.5

Indian will  not go quietly in the night and while Toronto is at home in front of a sold out crowd, the Raptors have not been able to close out jack crap in the post season forever.  I like the points here in what should be a wire to wire typer game.  Buzzer beater wins it, again I will take the points.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana 

# 506 -Golden State -9    *3:30 est tip

While the Clippers were down with their two best players for most of the series against Portland which afforded the Blazers a series win, the fact Curry is out is not enough to deter me from the Warriors who are the best team in the NBA, at home, with rest, who have way too much offense for Portland to contend with here.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Hornets +6.5

This line dropped for a reason.  While Miami's Wade finally went off in the last game in the 4th quarter, this one goes down to the wire and I will gladly grab the points with a capable team.

Play 1 Unit on Charlotte

OK City +6.5

This will be a test for the Spurs in this series.  Leonard is solid on defense no doubt and will be tasked to slow down a red hot Durrant in this series. I do not think he can stop him totally and Westbrook and company can pick up the pace.  OK City averaged 112 ppg on offense in the round 1 series and on offense they are clicking on all cylinders.  They can score enough here to keep pace and cover the number.  These teams split 2-2 this season with the home team winning each time.  Last game was a an OT game win by the Spurs.  

Play 1 Unit on OK City 

#577 / 578 - UNDER 195.5 Clippers/ Blazers   *10:05 est tip 

No Paul – No Griffen, 4-0 ATS with the Clippers here on the Under in the post season and the last 5 in the series have went under and LA lost 50%+ of their scoring power and both teams in their last 5 games have allowed less than 98 PPG, and I doubt either team gets out of the high 80’s or low 90’s tonight as LA HAS to play defense at their highest level tonight even to have a chance at winning the game.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

#569 - Pacers +7  **6:05 est 

This line is going to drop.  Look - Toronto is not a good playoff team and frankly George coming off a bad game and the Pacers still won.  The tighter the series gets as the conclusion of a 7 games series gets, the tighter the games get.  This is too many points, and the Raptors home court I know is strong, but their back court has been playing like dog crap and thew Pacer swill give them all they want here.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana 

# 561/ 562 - Miami / Charlotte OVER 195.5   ** 7:05 EST Tip

Charlotte got down and dirty and went Big on Miami in game 3 and caught them off guard and Miami could not adjust in time to recover.  The Heat will be ready tonight on offense, and this total is too low and an over adjustment by oddsmakers.  Both teams will come out gunning, especially Miami in this one.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#555 - Golden St -8.5 to 9   *3:35 EST Tip 

Curry back - off a loss - the best team in the playoffs in a foul mood.  I smell a 20 point blowout here.  Plain and simple.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State 

San Antonio -11.5

THIS LINE WILL GO UP.  Posting on Wednesday.  If you have not watched both games in this series, then you should go to NBA TV and look for re-runs because this matchup is a total mis-match.  Memphis is short handed against about the only team who can beat Golden State in a 7 game series.  Memphis cannot score.  At home - who cares?  The Spurs are loaded with talent and experience and depth.  They are the best coached team in the NBA.  The Spurs second team was beating the hell out of Memphis in the second half of their last game.  Every stat that matters favors San Antonio huge in this game and series, and it will be a 4 game series.  No way San Antonio lets off the hammer here, they are on the road and want to close this series out asap because of the age of their veterans.  I personally have 5 dimes on this game, so if it goes down, we go down together.  Honestly this should be a 20 point + win .

Play 3 Units on the Spurs. (3x your normal wager) best of Luck - Tony G 

#537 - Golden State -5 to 5.5   **9:30 EST Tip 

Even without Curry who is questionable, the bottom line is Houston is a mess of a team, do not have chemistry and they are lazy as shit on defense and that plays into the Warriors hands.  Good value on the number with Curry questionable, but GS has plenty of firepower and Houston cannot stop anyone on defense, nor half the time they do not try including James Harden.  Best team in the NBA against a #8 seed laying less than 6 points?  I will take it all day long.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

NOTE:  Playoff Game of the year is up and goes tomorrow night.  6-1 ATS last 7 years with this play.  

Miami -4.5

32 point win and laying less than 5.  Too many mis-matches here to go into, but experience and scoring power are both on Miami’s side.  A 3 seed should be favored over a 6 seed by 4 or 5 points, and the low post and big man game with Deng was a clear mis match as Miami just flat out manhandled the Hornets.  More of the same, and we are in Miami which is a nice 2 to3 point home court advantage.  Sometimes things are exactly what they are, Miami the vastly better team.

Play 1 unit on Miami. 

Indiana +7.5

Wow- I put the Pacers out for free on Saturday and they won by 10 as a 6 point dog and now are getting more points against a good Toronto team who simply cannot win playoff games.  That said I think the Raptors will avenge here, but gladly take the points with the Pacers and a hot Mr. George on the floor for them.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana

BONUS PLAY:  Golden State -13.  No one wants in front of this train.  

Detroit +10.5 to 11

Interesting that Detroit took 3 out of 4 in this series and just won an OT game against the Cavs as well and yet little respect from oddsmakers.  When you have 2 teams that exceed 100 ppg on offense for the season and give one of them double digits in the playoffs, I am taking the big points.  The public loves to bert LeBron and company, this line is inflated.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit. 

Boston +5.5

Both teams well coached and for all the press about Boston scoring they average a higher number than the Hawks.  Boston is very well coached and are playing with triple revenge here including a setback on the 9th on this very floor by 11 points.  I think this is a 7 games series between 2 well coached teams and the Underdog should have value no matter who it is with a spread higher than 4 points.  I will take Boston

Play 1 Unit 

Warriors +5.5

Yeah the Warriors are 0-33 at San Antonio, and the Spurs are 39-0 at home.  Coach Pop publically stated he could care less about the undefeated home record.  After a defeat by 9 to the Warriors the Spurs rested starters and lost to Denver.  They face a motivated Warriors team scoring 9 ppg more than them on offense and off a comeback win against Memphis last night. With the scoring power of Golden State I am willing to take the 5.5 points.  Do you not think the best team in NBA who is 0-33 in this venue going for a record tying 73 wins this season wants this?  It will not come easy for the mighty Spurs at home, I will grab the points.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Celtics +5.5

Short and sweet, this is a huge game for the #3 and #4 spot in the eastern Playoffs and Boston trounced the Bucks last night and scored 124 points.  There is no quit in this Brad Stevens coached team and this game will be a buzzer beater.  Boston has the better offense and are a killer team ATS-wise of zero days resat.  The Celtics are 4-0 ATS their last 4 against Eastern opponents and are dialed in.

Play 1 Unit on Boston 

#505 / 506 - Orlando / Detroit UNDER 208.5    *7 est tip 

The Pistons have played some defense down the stretch run and neither team is an offensive juggernaut.  This is a big game for Detroit as they are trying to keep the Bulls out of the Playoffs and I expect them to play close to the vest against a suddenly hot Orlando team.  Did I mention Detroit is worst in the NBA at free throws?  Orlando plays some good defense at home and Detroit trending Under on the road as of late.  The line has dropped from opening at 209 - get on it early.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

#602 - North Carolina -2.5   *9:15 EST TIP 
If you listen to my radio show on Yahoo Sports or Sirius in the football season, you know I have the inside track in Vegas with knowing where the biggest sharp pro bettors are going, and they are on North Carolina.  In fact my source told me to expect a double digit win.  Both teams dominated their opponents in the Final 4 semi's, however Nova's beatdown of Oklahoma was shocking by 44 points, and the line is set to reflect that however and give the public points with a hot team and begging them to take it.  Carolina is the better team, period.  I do not expect a 70%+ shooting performance from Nova, and off a perfect game like that a false sense of security may be present, but I assure you I have Carolina winning it all in my bracket this year, and I thought play they had the best shot in the tourney outside of Michigan State who blew it in round 1, from the beginning of this tourney.  I have them winning this game with their guard play and depth and coaching by 6-8 points.  My power rating spread, despite Saturday's result is still 5.5 points and that is a 3 point overlay.  NC has five straight double digit wins, and while bucking the public here and fading a good Nova team who will not go down easy, Carolina puts it away late. The Tarheels are averaging 88 ppg their last 5 games against very good teams and remember Carolina is 25-1 SU when they exceed 80 points in a game.  
Play 1 Unit on North Carolina
NOTE:  I want to thank you for all your CBB biz this year.  A 62% regular season did not pay the usual dividends in March Madness this season and my Madness package was subpar and we apologize for that, it was a rough tourney to call ATS-wise with allot of parity both in NCAA as well as the NIT and CBI, and even straight up with lots of 1 or 2 point bad beats and ect.  It happens, no excuses, but we hope to cap off the season with a win tonight.  Again, Thanks for all the biz.  Tony G 

#811 - Nova -2    *6:05 est tip off 
As a Big 12 fan, this pains me because OU is last Big 12 standing, but I have to go with Villanova here, they hit the boards hard, play better defense and while Buddy Hield for Oklahoma is the best player on the floor, OU will have issues with the 4 guard lineup of Nova and their defense which is pretty wicked in shutting down the other 3 shooters that OU has.  Buddy will get his points but he has also not stepped up in big games throughout the season and I feel the pressure will be too great for him to carry this team alone.  Nova fundamentally sound, extremely well coached and have plenty of firepower, hits the boards aggressively and have the intangibles to win this game.    Yes OU beat Nova in Hawaii this season but Nova shot 13% from 3 point range in that game and OU 54%, and that wont happen again. I have flip flopped on this game all week but talking with my sources in las vegas all the sharp money has been hitting on Nova for the reasons above.
Play 1 Unit on Villanova
BONUS PLAY - HALF UNIT - Syracuse +9.5.   Tough call in this game but with 4 teams left standing and Syracuse beating Virginia by 7 after being down 14 at halftime against the Cavs defense, there is little respect for them on this line.  No one is here by accident no matter what you think of Syracuse, and they have a killer matchup zone defense and should be able to play a half court game with NC and slow it down and keep the score lower, and that brings big points into play.  

Miami Heat -8

Catching the Heat off a loss to LA Lakers as a 10 point favorite after LA got beat by 48 at Utah.  Miami overlooked and did not prepare for LA and now they have Sacramento as a sacrificial lamb who is playing without Cousins tonight as he is suspended for this game.  Plain and simple, Miami will come out with their ears pinned back and the Kings without Cousins are a totally different animal.  I expect Wade and the boys to have a big night and hammer home a double digit win with ease.

Play 1 Unit on Miami 

Nevada -3.5 to 4

This is a home game for the Wolfpack who beat up MSU by 9 points in the 2nd game of the Best 3 series championship.  MSU has played 4 road games out of their last 6 games and far away from home in Reno with distractions, and quite frankly dealing with some altitude fatigue as well, I like Nevada at home to get it done BIOG tonight. Nevada 15-3 SU at home and are 10-1 ATS their last 11 home games, this is a strong home floor and Nevada has better talent that this Ohio Valley team. Too much offense for Morehead St to trade punches with.

Play 1 Unit on Nevada

#714 - Valpo -2   * 7 EST Tip 

The rebounding ability of Valpo the story here, a 30 win hoops team winning by an average of 10 ppg.  I must say GW beating up San Diego State was a shock to me and allowing less than 50 points for the Aztecs was also a shocker.  Unfortunately for GW I doubt seriously that Valpo shoots 28% from the floor and 13% from 3 point range tonight as SDSU did in the semi’s and handed them the game on a silver platter, they simply played a team who sucked last game and looked good in the process.  Bryce Drew is a great head coach for Valpo (former player – his daddy a legendary coach) who is 13-5 overall SU away from their home floor this year.   

Valpo ranks 5th in the nation with offensive rebounds and 18th in the nation with defensive rebounds, and rebounding a HUGE factor in any game, especially in the post season as we all have seen throughout March Madness.  The Colonials of GW are no slouch and have a good team, and this will be a tight game, but willing to back Valpo who played a very tough BYU to the wire and are a battler tested, well coached team who rebounds well and spreads around the scoring, have a deeper bench and I feel a better defense.

Play 1 Unit on Valpo

SDSU -3

Really like this Aztec team.  I had them a time or two for free and premium plays in this tourney so far.  Big rebounding team, they beat Washington and Georgia Tech, a couple of Big 5 conference teams in convincing fashion and have won their 3 NIT games by a combined 55 points.  They can put up some points.  They are athletic at the big man position and although GW can put up some points, I do not see them matching up on the boards and if you have been watching any post season play, the team that rebounds better, wins the game and does cover some spreads as well.  I think Georgia Techs coach said it best, and that was that SDSU is playing in the wrong tourney!  That means something coming from a coach in the ACC.  They shut Washington’s high flying offense down and will do the same here.  Bigger guys, vastly better defense and well coached.

Play 1 Unit on San Diego State 

Bulls +8

Yes Chicago is in a downward spiral but getting 8 points with a team who is talented but lacking consistency, against a team they can match up well with, in a desperate fight for the playoffs provides motivation enough to cover this number.  Chicago is better at rebounding and have the motivation to play balls out here tonight.  Indiana has dropped 3 out of their last 6 games, this number is too high.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

North Carolina -10

I cannot recall all of my Elite picks over the 24 years of capping, but I am doubtful I ever laid double digits in an elite 8 game, but it is warranted here.  NC beat the Irish by 31 in the ACC tourney.  They lost to them in their last meeting at ND in February, but that's a good thing because Roy Williams will remind them of that and dial his team in for this one.  NC is the hottest team in the tourney, winning their 3 tourney games by a combined 50 points, and they just destroyed regular season Big 10 Champs Indiana by 25 who I think is better than this ND team.  All in all ND will not hang tough the whole game and remember the Irish had 19 points at halftime against Wisconsin.  Roy Williams will let the dogs out tonight and bury ND.  NC is the best team in this tourney bar none.

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina  

#522 - Kansas -2     *8:45 tip 

Going to take the superior team here with depth.  Kansas cruised to a win over Maryland and played some good defense along the way.  The KEY to late season winning in the tourney is rebounds and KU hits the glass with authority and can mix and match players to create mis-matches.  Nova no slouch, they have been hot from the floor their last 5 ballgames no doubt and they buried Miami on Thursday, but Miami is an also ran and KU is the top tourney seed, the Big 12 regular season and Tourney champs and have a pedigree at head coach that has been in this spot before.  Look for Graham to have a better outing than his last game, and for KU to win 5-7 points here in a tight game.  Depth, rebounding, head coach and a couple of good guards who defend well.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas 

#512 - Minnesota +6.5 to 7   *8:05 est tip 

Love the T Wolves at home tonight, despite playing a road OT game last night in a win at Washington.  The T Wolves oldest starter is 26 yrs old so I am not overly worried about them being tired.  We have a scenario here where Utah is playing their 4th game in 6 days and a tough scheduling spot to lay 6.5 points against a team in their last 5 games has averaged 22 ppg on offense as compared to Utah in the same timeframe.  Utah may win but it will not come easy.  Utah battling for the 8th playoff spot and all the pressure is on them here. 

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota 

#875 - Gonzaga –4   *9:40 est tip Friday 

The Zags are built to bust up zone defenses, and have the post play to back it up, kick it back out and get uncontested shots in this game.  This is the worst matchup for Syracuse they could possibly imagine.  Gonzaga is on a roll and while Syracuse has a hall of fame coach, the Zags have a good coach of their own.  The Zags have stat edges in PPG, FG%, Free Throw %, Rebounding, Turnovers and Bench scoring.  Enough said.

Play 1.5 Units on Gonzaga

Oregon -3

This is when Duke gets crushed.  Oregon has a bench that could be a 12 seed in this tourney.  Duke has no depth – period and got by against a couple of weak teams and almost blew it against Yale of people.  The Ducks are just too deep, and those rebound numbers will balloon in favor of the Ducks. This line is public perception, second chance shot and depth, plus little travel for the Ducks here.  Oregon by 10. 

Play 2 Units on Oregon

#778 - San Diego St -4.5 to -5  *9 est tip 

I went against the Aztecs against a very good, high scoring Washington team and got scorched.  GT makes the trip way west here and SDSU is a formidable foe at home.  SDSU’s defense will give GT fits in this one, and quite frankly SDSU is playing better than any team in this tourney and right now they are my odds on favorite to win this tourney.   The Aztecs defense can hold GT superstar Hunt in check, and when that occurs, GT is average at best.  Home court here worth 2 to 3 points, willing to ;lay it with a hot team.

Play 1 Unit on San Diego State 

Over 196 Spurs and Heat

Miami has scored in excess of 100 points in each of their last 11 games and are clicking on offense.  San Antonio coming off a bad loss Monday and the last 2 games their offense has sputtered.  Miami plays little D and I like this one to go over the total and both teams exceeding 100 points.  Spurs at home average a 105 ppg this season on offense.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#623 - Washington +5 

The Huskies offense is 14 ppg better than that of San Diego St and they can and will also out rebound SDSU as well.  Anyone who watched any CBB this past 4 days realizes that without good rebounding, no matter how good the guard play is, those teams lose.  Washington better on offense and have scored 89 ppg their last 5, they are better at free throws, rebounds, bench and strength of schedule.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

#728 - Oregon -6.5    *9:40 est tip 
If you noticed real good teams Saturday like North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia all covered numbers and the trend will continue here.  Oregon has a no brainer in round 1in a 901-52 lay up against Holy Cross, St Joe's battled it out against Cincy for a thriller 2 point win.  Oregon's offense way too much for ST Joe's here, and oregon battle tested out of good PAC 12, and Dana Altman can flat out coach as well as anyone.
Play 2 Units on Oregon 

#718 - Oklahoma -6.5  *5:15 est tip 
Willing to lay points here.  A look at VCU shows their toughest 3 games the last 4 weeks they lost SU.  They also lost to St Joe's by 13 in their conference tourney.  OU has 4 starters who have played over a 100 games together, Kruger will let the dogs loose here and OU has the best player still in this tourney.  I cannot see VCU trading points all day with high flying and battle tested OU all day.  OU pulls away late.
Play 1 Unit on OU
BONUS PLAY:  #733 - Tennessee Martin +7 in NIT Tourney 

Ohio State -1
Home court huge in the NIT and for Ohio State here. This game is for a quarter final spot. Florida without second leading scorer today and replace with a freshman and they managed a record 16 three pointers against North Florida in game 1 of the NIT, doubt they repeat that.  OSU battle tested out of Big 10 and have a better coach. They beat a good Akron team in round 1, and I like their forward play better than Florida's here. OSU 15-5 at home SU and Florida 5-8 on the road.
Play 1 Unit on Ohio State 

#527 - U Conn +8     *7:45 est tip

Here is a news flash - I have seen Kansas play 3 times in person this year and each time I leave the arena, my first thought is KU is NOT the #1 team in the nation.  If you shut down Graham despite their depth, they are dead and you know U Conn will defend the outside.  Kansas was tested by Baylor and West Virginia, who both could not hit a shot in the second half of those games.  U Conn red hot and Kansas overrated.

Play 1 Unit on U Conn

#524 - Virginia -7    *7:10 est tip

Butler beat an average Texas Tech team...big deal.  Tech had 4 good wins all year.  Virginia may very well be the best team in this tourney, surely in the narrative and their defense will shut down Butler.  period.

Play 2 Units on Virginia - Top Play  

#519 - Yale +6.5 to 6    *2:40 est tip

If NC Wilmington could rebound at all, and hit second half shots they would have beat Duke by 10 on Thursday.  Yale outrebounded Baylor, who is bigger than Duke, and they flat out are not afraid to pull the trigger from 3 point range.  Scrappy good team and they may be the Cinderella of this tourney when the dust settles .  Duke has depth issues and it will show, they had to play a full game in round 1, and while so did Yale, Duke is over rated and a very beatable team.

Play 1 Unit on Yale

#848 - St Joes +1.5   *9:57 PM est tip

Let me tell you the A-10 was no joke this year and St Joes ran the gauntlet of the tourney and won it all.  They also have the Player of the Year in the A-10  DeAndre Bremby and he is the best player on the floor here.  Not sold on Cincy even though they have 22 wins, as they lost in 4 OTs to U Conn in their conference tourney.  One thing I look at is road wins /losses and St Joes was 10-2 in road games SU this season and 22-10 ATS overall.  They have the better offense here and I am taking them plus points to win outright.  Cincy lost to Houston, Tulsa and Memphis in their last 3 out of 4 real road games, their lone win at bottom feeder East Carolina.

Play 1 Unit on St Joes

#849 - VT +6.5 to 7   *9:30 EST tip 
One thing is I love when the public is pounding a play and driving the line up, and a look at strength of schedule here tells you all you need to know.  Wins over Miami, Pitt, Florida State and Duke and playing in the ACC makes the Hokies a live dog here.  If you failed to watch hoops Thursday, underdogs are live this time of year and BYU played in a weak conference and although they score a ton of points, the contrasting styles and the defense that VT can play will not make this easy.  VT on a killer spread run and playing good ball despite needing OT to get by Princeton at 17-4 ATS their last 21 games. BYU has not fared well against ACC teams, 2-7 ATS their last 9 attempts.  BYU win, but it won't be easy and VT can knock down free throws as well, which is huge as you saw yesterday.   
Play 1 Unit on Virginia Tech 

#841 - South Dakota State +9.5 to 10   *4:30PM est tip

Yeah Maryland early this season was a potential #1 seed, at least they were in the narrative but some poor play quite frankly down the stretch including an early exit in the Big 10 Tourney where they almost lost to Nebraska as a huge favorite before getting beat in the next round to Mich. State.  South Dakota and fire up 3’s from anywhere and walked through the Summit Conference Tourney and have a neutral floor record of 5-0 this year as well as a winning road record, Maryland will have their hands full here, and many sharp players in Vegas are on this game with SD (pro bettors).  My inside source has this as his top play Friday.  South Dakota also is very pesky on defense and should keep this well within the number.  Classic 12 seed vs 5 seed barn burner.

Play 1 Unit on South Dakota State

#826 - Oklahoma -14   *4 PM est tip

I think this is the blowout of the day.  OU by 20+ here. I rarely lay big points, but round 1 with a great team versus and average is a scenario I will jump on here.  OU is a veteran team on a mission and well coached by Kruger and was a sweet 16 team last year and lost a heartbreaker at the buzzer to West Virginia last Friday in the Big 12 Tourney.  They have 4 starters who have played 100 games together, and Buddy Hield is one of the best players in the nation.  Cal State knocked off New Mexico St to win the WAC Title but their leading scorer averages 12 ppg on the season and despite them having a defense that has kept them in big games and winning games, they have not seen a team like OU that can fly up and down floor with shooters everywhere.  2 years ago this group of seniors lost to North Dakota St in the first round in a shocker as a 5 seed, and trust me they will not overlook this opponent, and OU could quite possibly be a Final 4 team.   Blowout.

Play 1 Unit on Oklahoma

#748 - Seton Hall +1  *9:57 EST Tip

No joke here.  Seton Hall won the Big East and can flat out ball.  Gonzaga played in a horrible conference and beating St Mary’s and BYU as your best wins this year is not a resume I am fond of laying points with.  Seton Hall knocked off 2 of the best teams in the country (Nova and Xavier)  in the Big East Tourney and are locked and loaded and confident.  Seton Hall battle tested all season with better teams, Zaga not as good of an edition as years past.  Gonzaga a public darling every year and are overvalued here, better team getting points.

Play 1 Unit on Seton Hall

#727 - Providence -1.5    *9:50 EST Tip

Kris Dunn the best player on the floor in this game and might be the best player in this region and the Friars have the 2 best guards in this game bar none, and USC is so inconsistent I cannot trust them, especially on defense in this one.  USC lost to anyone good in the PAC 12 all year and beating UCLA in round 1 of the PAC tourney before losing to Utah does not impress me either.   The Friars are a great road team as well and a cover machine away from home.

Play 1 Unit on Providence 

#735 - Fresno State +8.5   *727 est tip Thursday

My Vegas Insider who manages 7 sportsbooks and is on my national radio frequently, alerted me to this game right as the lines open.  The biggest sharp players were pounding this underdog more so than any other on Thursday.  Fresno St won the Mountain West Conference and Utah got blown out of the stadium by Oregon in a very bad showing.  Fresno has an offense that can keep pace and a defense that can slow down Utah enough to cover this number.  Utah has some injury issues to contributors which adds to a serious depth problem for this game.

Play 1 Unit on Fresno State

# 723 - NC Wilmington +10.5   *12:15 est tip

Duke has allowed 80 ppg on neutral sites and on the road this year and lack scoring power and depth.  Their run in this tourney is going to be short lived and while I think they win this game, NC Wilmington is no joke and beat Hofstra for the tourney championship and have scorers all over the floor.  David versus Goliath and they will give big brother in state headline grabber Duke all they want here and not in any frame of mind to lay double digits with Duke against anyone.  Yes step up in  class for Wilmington, but they will put up points against a bad defense and stay within the number.  Duke lost 3 out of their last 4 and almost lost to a bad NC State in the opening round of the ACC tourney.  Duke does not maintain leads well.

Play 1 Unit on NC Wilmington

# 634 - Georgia Tech -3.5   *9 est tip 

Houston lost to a 3 win team in AAC Tourney and did not compete in any big game this season.  GT had a rough start to the season and lost to Virginia in the ACC Tourney, who is a #1 seed in the big dance, but GT went 12-6 in the ACC with some very close losses to some very good teams, most in the NCAA Tourney and GT not disappointed to be here, and at home where they finished the season 4-0 an beat both Pitt and Notre Dame at home.  Houston is far lesser in talent than ACC foes and I expect a BIG GT win tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Georgia Tech

BONUS PLAY:  Idaho -2 for a HALF UNIT.   

Mavs +9.5 for 1 Unit guys.  

Short on time but Cleveland off an ugly loss and some issues with the Cavs and Dallas is fighting for the playoffs here.  Too many points in this one and Cleveland is terrible coming off a loss ATS.  Short and Sweet today.  

#558 - North Florida +7.5 to 8   **9 est tip 

Home dog in the NIT Tourney here who lead the nation in 3 pointers this year, making an astounding 402 of them and all 5 starters average double digits in scoring.  Florida was inconsistent all year on offense so this is a bad matchup and one has to wonder the motivation for the Gators here, while this is the Super Bowl for North Florida at home against a team who was 4-8 on the road this season and have covered just 3 out of their last 12 games against the line.  Big step up in class for North Florida, but that offense will keep this close.

Play 1 Unit on North Florida

BONUS HALF UNIT PLAY – Vandy +3.5.   Shockers have 2 great experienced guards but the low post and wings belong to Vandy.

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#889 - Purdue +4.5   * 2 est tip 
Yeah yeah, I know Michigan State's Tom Izzo knows how to win the big game, but Purdue is red hot and I am not bucking a team getting over 3 points when they are hitting 56% from the floor in FG% their last 5 games.  Purdue dismantled both Michigan and Illinois playing good defense and scoring lights out and AJ Hammons is no joke for Purdue.  Valentine for MSU will get his points but I am looking at a down to the wire game and Purdue can hit free throws and are big down low when they get motivated.  Close all the way.  The fact MSU really struggled in a grueling matchup with Maryland has the fatigue factor clearly in Purdue's favor who breezed to a win in both their tourney games.
Play 1 Unit on Purdue 

#752 - North Carolina -2  *9 est tip

The Tar Heels have blasted every opponent in this tourney by double digits and have fed off a huge win at Duke coming into this tourney.  NC did not break a sweat yesterday pounding Notre Dame into submission by 29 points and blasting Pitt by 16 points in the opening game.  Virginia's defense is good, however when these two split the regular games NC was able to break 70 points in both games.  North Carolina is loaded at the guard position, they are deep, and have a veteran head coach that can flat out get the most out of his team in crunch time.  Willing to lay a bucket with NC here although the Cavs are ranked higher.  Virginia off a slugfest against Miami last night while NC cruised to a win.  Carolina rolling.  

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina

#748 - Kansas -3.5 to 4 MAX   * 6 est tip 

Gonna take KU here at a game I will be at in person in KC.  This is essentially a home game for Kansas and they did not cover yesterday as the line shot up all day long and struggled down the stretch against a scrappy Baylor team.  However the game WV played against Oklahoma was grueling and physical and a heart attack ending that was a replay review that went their way, and a game like that takes a lot out of you.  Home floor here worth 2 to 3 points for KU and their big man play and depth win it out for them.  Last game they played KU laid 7 and won by 10.  Won't be easy but I expect KU to pull away late.  KU #1 for a reason and have covered 9 out of their last 12 Big 12 games.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

BONUS PLAY - Akron -4 for Half Unit.  Buffalo's defense is deplorable and has allowed 81 ppg their last 5 games.  Akron allowed 63 in their last 5.  

#734 - Ark - Little Rock -3 to 3.5   * 2 EST Tip

UL simply cannot win away from home.  4-11 on the road.  Arkansas Little Rock is 12-4 on the road and the Trojans beat the Cajuns twice this year already. Little Rock has the best record in the nation at 27-4 and they rank 3rd in the nation in scoring defense and yet they are called a bubble team and need to win this game and tourney to get in the dance.  They have 2 solid guards and I like them here by 6-8 points. 

Play 2 Units on Arkansas Little Rock

Washington +4

Hood is out for Utah and his 14 points in this game and Washington despite losing 3 in a row should have Beal back tonight and they are averaging 9 ppg more on offense than Utah in their last 5 games.  Like Washington to snap the streak, Utah has lost 7 out of their last 8 and have not covered the spread at home their last 4 home games and are 0-9 ATS on 1 days rest this year.  

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

#528 - Maryland -7.5 to 8   *8:55 est tip

Nebraska is my alma mater.  That said the Huskers got by Wisconsin last night in a dogfight and without Shields, the Huskers are average at best going up against one of the top teams in the nation who are well rested.  Nebraska got by a bad Rutgers team, and grinded it out last night but shot their wad.  Maryland’s guard play vastly better than the Huskers and while I hate to lay over 6 points in any tourney game, a well-rested Maryland team on a mission against a team who does not even have a winning record who is wore out has blowout written all over it.

Play 1 Unit on Maryland 

#570 Kansas -6  *7 est tip

Square as hell to take KU here, but I live here, have seen this team play in person, and Kansas is loaded and truly one of the top 4 teams in the nation.  Baylor managed to beat a so – so Texas team badly and I was not impressed since Texas self-destructed, but KU beat Baylor twice this year and is a different animal in Kansas City in this tourney which is a home game in all aspects.  Kansas loaded, deep, talented at the guard spot and can knock down shots.  Baylor needs to play “big” and try and slow KU down.  Just not in the cards.  Kansas wants this title, they are the batter team and this floor is worth 3 points alone to them. I expect KU to step it up big time and blowout Baylor.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

#565 - Providence +9   *630 est tip

Too many points with Nova being a huge fav.  These two split the regular season and Nova without the service of Ochefu tonight and his rebounding and 10 ppg.  Providence’s offense has been hitting on all cylinders and they can put up enough points here to keep this within the number.  Again nothing comes easy this time of year gents, and this will be a dogfight between 2 old rivals.  Providence beat a good Butler team by 14 to get here. 

Play 1 Unit on Providence

#540 - Cincy -1.5 to -2    **2 PM EST Tip

Cincy dominated U Conn twice this year and numerous players on the Bearcats team have went down the last 2 years to U Conn in this tourney and will dial it in here.  Cincy should own the boards and are off a big time performance against SMU.  Short and Sweet but Cincy’s DEFENSE the key in this game.  Very physical, athletic and well rested.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

Play 1 Unit on Colorado - no time for writeup.  Too many points and Buffs can win SU, and have already beat Zona once!  

#773 - Washington +7.5 to 8   *3 est tip

Not sold on Oregon putting away a team who can score lights out.  Washington blew Stanford up for 91 points yesterday and are rolling.  Oregon can win this game but as you have seen laying big numbers is DEATH in these tourneys, even in the first round.  Washing has a great guard tandem and that is huge.  Oregon beat Washington by 13 two weeks ago, but Oregon away from home where they went 16-0 this year, is a different animal and are not near as dominant. Nothing comes easy guys, Oregon the better team but they have a target on their back. 

Play 2 Units on Washington.  

#719 - Duke -2.5     *2 est tip

Notre Dame embarrassed Duke on national TV a while back, and coach K loves payback.  Duke was lucky to win yesterday and had a meltdown in the second half.  This is a manageable number and Notre Dame really looked bad down the stretch of the season, losing to Miami, GT and Florida State and the Irish are not a good road tea,.  Coach K knows how to win this time of the year, and knows how to exact revenge and motivate his ball club, and nor doubt, Coach K wants to win this tourney.  It gets tougher from here but a win helps Duke big time in the Big Dance Seeding.

Play 1 Unit on Duke

#536 - Kansas State -5   **7 EST TIP

K State close to home with lots of fans at the Sprint Center in KC for this one.  K State playing for NIT berth and need a win here to solidify that.  Okie State has thrown it in, they do not play hard for coach Ford who will be fired soon after this game.  Okie St has lost 6 in a row and 5 of them by double digits, injury riddled all season and tonight, K State has a ton to play for, Okie has nothing,  and Bruce Weber will have them fired up for this one and is the better coach by far.  Okie St gets down early and they just may toss it in early.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas State

BONUS PLAY:  Play a Half Unit on Marquette -6.5  (vs St Johns)  Take Marquette #564

Under 150 Washington and Stanford

Both games went under the total in their 2 meetings and this number has not been adjusted.  Stanford in the past 2 weeks have lost 2 players that contribute 14 ppg to their cause.  Stanford has scored 57 ppg on neutral floors this year and failed to score more than 64 in either of their last 2 games. 2 weeks ago these two scored 117 points total.

Play 1 Unit on the Under

#726 - St. Marys +2   9 est tip 

Not sold on the Zags, they have a lot of wins this year but anyone good they have basically lost to, and they have lost to St Marys twice and no one thinks they can lose 3 times because they are the Zags.   Even with 25 wins the pundants say the Zags have to win this conference championship to get in the big dance.  That tells you something right there.  I doubt St Marys hits 60%+ from the floor like they did against Pepperdine last night in a blowout, but they have shooters all over the place and are the better team. St Marys is 168-17 SU when they exceed 70 points and with 4 players that average double digits on offense, I like their chances tonight after the Zags had to play a grueling games against BYU last night that was in doubt all the way just to get here.

Play 1 Unit on St Marys 

#515 - Green Bay +9   **7 est tip

The last game these 2 played Valpo won by 2 at Green Bay.  Green Bay has won 2 tourney games to get to the semifinals and won yesterday- and Valpo has not played in a week with the bye into this tourney.  One of Valpo’s guards is out for this game (Walker) averaging 10 ppg on a high octane offense.  They also have another guard banged up but is listed as questionable but word is he is playing with a bad ankle and they also have a forward out who is averaging 7 ppg and some rebounds. When teams are idle it takes them some time to get back to square one and that leaves the door open for GB who have lost twice to Valpo this year and are rolling with the better defense in this game.  Backdoor cover here.

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay 

Evansville +1 to pick (first open)  
The Purple Aces have dominated teams in this tourney to date.  Northern Iowa off a grueling OT win over #1 seed Wichita State yesterday and it took its toll.  Northern Iowa had trouble knocking down shots and the Shockers could not buy a bucket, and no doubt fatigue will play a role here even though Evansville played the late game. They blew out Indiana State and won both their tourney games here by a combined 36 points.  ALSO the Aces have DOUBLE revenge here as they lost by 3 points and then 2 points to NIU, and the last loss was last week in the regular season finale and fresh in their mind.  Hard to beat a good team 3 times in a month guys, and although NIU is red hot and on an 11-1 run, the pressure is mounting.  Depth is an issue as well for NIU. The Aces are 25-8 on the year and have the fresher legs and better offense and they play just as good as defense as NIU does, and that double revenge factor is huge.  This will be a tight one, Evansville pulls it out late.
Play 1 Unit on Evansville

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#535 - Iowa State +9.5   *  4 est tip 
Yeah Kansas at home and going for an outright title which they already share, but ISU the last team to beat Kansas, and KU has ripped off 10 straight and ISU coming off a rare low scoring win at home against Okie St where they were looking ahead to this one.  4 seniors leave Phog Allen today at 60-2 with their career home record while at KU, but this one will not come easy as ISU leads the Big 12 in scoring and will pull out all the stops and make this interesting.
Play 1 Unit on Iowa State 

#571 - Oregon -1.5   *4 est tip 
Yeah road team here against a good ball club in USC - however USC has trouble from the charity strip and the Ducks do not, 79% their last 5 games and that is huge, and USC has lost 10 in a row to Oregon straight up dating back to 200.  Dana Altmans Ducks are for real, and could tie up the regular season crown with a win and not a tie and they are the #1 seed in the PAC 12 tourney next week regardless but this team has scorers all over the floor, and USC plays bad defense.  Tight one, but I like the Ducks by 4 to 5 on the road here.   Ducks 17-8 ATS their last 25 PAC 12 Games.
Play 1 Unit on Oregon

Northern Iowa +9.5

The Panthers are the hottest team in the Mo Valley and they are playing defense allowing 55 ppg their last 5, and they are 10-1 SU and on a 9-1-1 ATS run and own a win over Wichita St in the last 2 weeks.  Too many points here as WSU is over valued.  Northern Iowa can keep this score low with their defense which always brings big points into play.  Dogs were covering all over the place yesterday in this tourney.

Play 1 Unit on Northern Iowa

#558 - Texas Tech -5   *3 est tip 
K State has a 1-7 road record and just cashed a ticket to stop a 3 game slide to bottom feeder TCU.  Texas Tech at home is a beast and Tubby Smith the better coach in this game.  K State is young and are already locked in the 8th seed for Big 12 Tourney.  Tech who I saw play Kansas in person last week was sluggish in that game and could not buy a basket and still gave mighty KU a game.  I like them here as they are fighting for the Big Dance and a win here would go a long way for them.  Better team, tough home floor against a bad road team.
Play 1 Unit on Texas Tech 

Miami -9 to 9.5

Okafor is out or is at less than 75% tonight for Philly if he even plays which is doubtful, and he is the cog in the offense and the Heat will not back down here.  Nole also is banged up for Philly but expected to play.  The Heat are 20-3 SU against Philly their last 23 games.  Philly has lost 10 in a row allowing 116 ppg in those losses on the average. 

Play 1 Unit on Miami 

#855 - Ohio U -2   **7 est tip

Absolute joke of a line.  Ohio U has blown out Miami of Ohio already this season.  This line is a joke, because they won by 12 the first time around and were laying 11.5 and now they lay 2 points to a team with 7 home losses this year?   Tourney seeding on the line here for the Bobcats who are 47th in total offense and 24th in FG% from the arc in the NCAA, again laying 2?  Ohio rolls – 84 ppg their last 5 games on offense.  Plus catching Miami of Ohio off a huge upset win over a disinterested Akron team.  Spot bet boys!

Play 1 Unit on Ohio U

BONUS PLAY HALF UNIT – #870  Illinois State -5   - They beat Indiana St by 28 two weeks ago.   

#558 - Missouri State -2   *9:30 EST TIP  (Thursday) 

MSU won both games this season by 9 points each and bear in mind Drake is 0-12 on true road games and 2-12 on the road including neutral floors and Mizzou state has one of the better scoring offenses in the Mo Valley and quite frankly this number should be 5.5 on my power ratings on a neutral floor.  Drake is also out manned big time on the boards here.  Cheap number, lay it.

Play 2 Units on Missouri State 

#578 - Tennessee State -4.5   *7 est tip 

Look for Tenn. St to whack Austin Peay tonight laying a short number.  TSU just Belmont division leader Belmont out of the Ohio Valley Conference by 15 and also have already defeated Austin Peay by 14 in regular season conference action.  Too much firepower for AP to hang with and TSU well rested and prepared to make a run in this tourney.

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee State 

#753 - Creighton +3.5   -*9 est tip

Creighton avenging a loss where they didn’t hardly score in the second half against the Friars in their first meeting and this is tale of two teams going in different directions.  Creighton has a huge advantage at coaching here, and I like the run they have been on.  Providence 2-5 their last 7 games SU, and only covered 1 spread in those games.  Creighton rolling with revenge and trying to get to 20 wins and make a case for a tourney bid. 

Play 1 Unit on Creighton