Northern Illinois +6.5

Akron has 2 starters out including their big man and I cannot unload on a team who has dropped 6 out of 7 games in the favorite role at home over 3 points.  Add in the fact in thjeior only meeting this year NIU won by 3 points at home and NIU is on a 4 game winning streak and have better offensive numbers the last 5 games overall, and they are 5-2-1 ATS in this series the last 8 games, I am on Northern Illinois to keep this tight to the wire.

Play 1 Unit on Northern Illinois. 

Maryland -2.5
OK lets forget senior night and Home Floor for Nebraska.  They cannot compete with Maryland here.  Scoring 55 and allowing 71 points in their last 5 games, Nebraska's defense which was keeping them in games now has faltered as well.  Maryland taller, better and deeper.  Terps looking for high Big 10 tourney seed as well as the Big Dance.  Maryland efficient in every aspect including 85% from free throw line their last 5.  Under might be worth a look too here at 122.  
Play 1 Unit on Maryland 

=

Northern Iowa -4.5
Two things here at play.  The defense of NIU and the fact Illinois St is off a huge upset.  I had the Redbirds Saturday but they matched up well in that game.  Back on Feb 11 the Panthers beat up on Illinois St by 19 points at home and swept them 2-0 this season.  Illinois St playing good ball right now but they are just 5-11 ATS their last 16 games and NIU is 12-3-3 ATS their last 16 games.  Best Player in the Mo Valley on the floor for NIU.
Play 1 Unit on Northern Iowa. 

UC Davis -2.5
Cannot figure this line but UC Davis is undefeated at home and already beat the daylights out of Irving by  19 and while Irvine and Davis are both at a high level, homecourt is a HUGE advantage in this game.  If Davis gets the 3 ball going, and they are one of the top 5 teams in the NCAA at 3 point shots, they will get it done big here.  8-2 ATS at home their last 10 games.  
Play 2 Units on UC Davis 

Virginia -2.5
Louisville cannot score and their offense is their greatest weakness, while Virginia just destroys everyone's offensive output with a shut down defense.  The most points scored on the Cavs since 2/16 has been 57 points and in their last game between these two Louisville managed just 47 points.  11-0 on the road and 16-5 ATS on the road for the Cavs.
Play 1 Unit on Virginia
BONUS PLAY on North Carolina -1 to 1.5 for a Half Unit - This is their game of the year and they should control the glass...more desire to win than Duke here although Duke will not lay down.  They did everything but win in the last game and were the better team in that one that they lost in OT.  Homecourt is huge here. 

Illinois State +7.5
Third best team in this tourney and I will take the generous points here as WSU struggled yesterday and ISU has given WSU fits all year.  Both teams plays stellar defense and points will be at a premium.  The Shockers struggled Friday and managed just 57 against a bottom feeder.  I will take the points.  
Play 1 Unit on Illinois State

Oakland -7.5

Call me square but this is a total mismatch and Oakland has destroyed Illinois Chicago twice this year by a combined 39 points and Illinois Chicago cannot trade punches on the scoreboard as Oakland had 81 and 91 against them this year.  Short and Sweet, enough said.

Play 2 Units on Oakland – TOP PLAY 

Washington St +13

Yes Utah is better, vastly better but when you average 61 ppg on the road on the SEASON and lay 13 on the road, against a team who can put up points, and this is WSU’s Super Bowl at home tonight, I will gladly take the points in this spot.  Utah buried the Cougars by 22 6 weeks ago, and WSU has not forgot it. 

Play 1 Unit on Washington State 

St Johns -1.5

Marquette having a down year, and the lowest scoring team in the conference as they take on a red hot St. Johns team hell bent on making the NCAA Tourney.  The red men have notched their 20th win and are looking like a tourney team but this win is a MUST WIN as they march toward the big Dance.  Too much offense and experience.  St Johns has won 6 out of 7 and in 5 of those games scored 78 ppg or more and the Golden Eagles woeful offense cannot keep pace.

Play 1 Unit on St. Johns.

Check out my March Madness package on the site.  Ranked #1 by Sportswatch last year with over a 72% ATS record over 42 plays in March Madness!  I expect a repeat performance this season.

Houston -3.5

Houston took a beating last night after having a huge lead on Atlanta only to lose the game without start Harden who returns tonight, and you can bet the Rockets will be dialed in for this one. V Not sold on Memphis on the road by any means.  This is a battle of two teams that will see that playoffs and both teams have studs all over the floor.  Harden and Gasol both lead their teams in points in the last meeting which was a Houston win by 6 in OT the day after Christmas.

I cannot back a team who managed 82 points total in an 11 point loss to Utah in their last game.  As a matter of fact the Grizzles are in a slump and have lost 3 out of their last 4 games and as a note, the offense is struggling and in 1 of those 3 losses the Griz managed just 79 points.  Rockets all the way at home here. Randolph is out for this game, that is HUGE.   Griz 3-8 ATS the last 11 in Houston and the Rockets are 6-0 ATS at home the last 6 opponents they faced there with a winning record.

Play 2 Units on Houston

MY MARCH MADNESS PACKAGE IS $139 - STARTS NOW TOO!  I WAS RANKED #1 BY SPORTS WATCH IN 2014 IN MARCH MADNESS WITH A 73% ATS RECORD OVER 42 GAMES - DO NOT HESITATE ON THIS PACKAGE - WILL WIN YOU MONEY OR NEXT YEARS MARCH MADNESS PACKAGE IS FREE.  AUTOMATICALLY.  

North Carolina -5.5

Way too much offense for GT to handle here.  I laid points on the road with Virginia and cashed and while it is dangerous to lay points with road teams this time of year, it also should be noted that good coaches like Roy Williams, with a good team , is getting them ready and synced in for tourney action.  GT off an OT loss against Clemson where they trailed by as many as 23 points in a grueling and heartbreaking loss, and I like to go against teams off an OT loss their next game.  GT’s offense is very inconsistent while NC can put up some points.  They scored 89 against GT 2 weeks ago and beat them by 29 points laying 11.5.  6 point line adjustment because NC is on the road.  I know GT plays people tough but this is a mismatch.

Play 1 Unit on North Carolina 

Virginia -5.5

Line dropped from 6 here and I know it is Syracuse’s Senior night where Rakeem Christmas gets a farewell, but that enthusiasm will be short lived, as the Cavs have won their last 4 games by an average of 17 ppg, and they are a monster undefeated SU road team and also a cover machine on the road going 15-5-1 ATS their last 21 road games.  Syracuse off a draining loss against Duke and they have covered just 4 out of their last 17 games.  Yes this is the Oranges Super bowl of games tonight with no post season action, but they are offensively challenged against one of the best defenses in college basketball and a red hot Cavs team will not overlook this games by a longshot.   Virginia playing for a #1 seed in the big dance and face a tough ACC tourney, this is a must win roadie, and all coaches know what happen to Gonzaga this weekend. Looks easy to take the points with a capable home dog, but I for one do not think Cuse has enough offense against this defense to be capable, they got waxed by 19 points and managed just 56 points in the last meeting, and this line has only been adjusted 1.5 points.    

Play 1 Unit on Virginia

BONUS PLAY:   Baylor +2.5 to 3 – Texas cannot win a big game…Baylor on a roll, Texas falling flat. 

SMU +1
Playing U Conn, and on a 7 game road winning streak and SMU plays big foes well and Top 100 RPI teams well.  Larry Brown has another good team here and U Conn while decent at home are not the national champs of last year, and SMU already beat this team 73-55 on Valentines day.  This line looks like a trap, but I am drinking the kool aid on this one gents, SMU vastly better and a hell of a road team.
Play 2 Units on SMU 

Mississippi St +9
Quite frankly SC should not be laying 9 to anyone, their offense is deplorable and shot 30% from the floor in their last game.  Both teams are fairly even across the board in stats.  Yes Miss St is on a big slide but any team laying big points today is a risk, especially a team as bad as SC.
Play 1 Unit on Miss St

Bowling Green -3
Avenging a home loss and sitting at 18-8 on the year I like BG here who are 10-2 ATS on the road and have the best player on the floor and the best offense in this game.  BG is 16-5-1 ATS on the season and one of the better cover teams in hoops.  This line dropped 2 points since opening and the value has increased.
Play 1 Unit on Bowling Green - Hidden Gem 

Northern Iowa +6
When you have 2 teams in the Top 11 that play great defense with the Shockers allowing just 51 ppg at home and the Panthers who allow just 56 ppg on the road and a game for all the marbles, with NIU already winning round 1 by 16, I am taking points.  This is a down to the wire game and it will not come easy.  I have capped this conference all season and NIU is the better team (barely) and WSU has had trouble all year putting away weaker teams and seem to get in tight spots in other games and though their backcourt is excellent, NIU plays suffocating defense up top.
Play 1 Unit on Northern Iowa to get the cover

UNDER 199  Grizzles / Clippers

Memphis’s defense is awesome and halve already played to a 87-90 total in recent days and now this line at Memphis where they shut people down?  That said I also realize the Clippers who are struggling right now play little defense but Memphis is not an offensive juggernaut either.  Memphis has scored 92 and allowed 94 in their last 5 games.  Not good numbers for a winning record but good numbers for an UNDER play here.  Plus they just allowed Sacramento of all people 102 points and rest assured of a better defensive effort tonight in a big game where their main priority is to slow the pace because that is how you beat the Clippers who are without their leading scorer in Blake Griffin.

Play 1 Unit on the Under.

OK City -4

I LOVE to fade teams off playing Denver in the Altitude and then play the next night.  The NBA is all about scheduling spots gents, and lets be sure to notice as well the Thunder are 7-0 their last games and on a 9-1 run and Westbrook has been unstoppable.  While Durant is out I still like the Thunder who are deep, talented and well rested tonight against a team who has won 2 games in their last 10 games, both against bottom feeders and traded away their best player last week.

Play 2 Units on OK City

Miami Heat -2.5

Not sold on Orlando and comparable teams they played last week and struggled with, the Heat blew those same teams out and are in a playoff position mode right now, even without star Bosh on the floor.  Their free agent pick-ups are going to help. I think this is a very cheap line tonight considering Miami is flat out better.   Deng, Wade, Chalmers now kicking in, better line up that the Magic.  Also playing with revenge as Orlando beat Miami in their own house back in late December.  Orlando has won 3 in a row but two of those wins were against the Sixers and Knicks so those out the window.  Heat offense is clicking.

Play 1 Unit on Miami

Half Unit BONUS Play on:  VCU -1.5  

Boise St -8

Like the Broncos at home against a weak New Mexico team that really has not played all that well down the stretch, they have lost 2 productive starters along the way this year to injuries and they are not a good road team.  BSU is on a 9-1 SU / ATS run .  New Mexico only scores 60 ppg on the road and the Bronco’s allow just 54 ppg at home (50 ppg their last 5!!) .  BSU already won the first series meeting by 10 on the road and lay 8./5 in the rematch and are red hot?  I will lay it

Play 1 Unit on Boise St.

Golden State -5

Even without Curry here, who is 50/50 for tonight I like the Warriors here as Washington is in free fall and John Wall has hit the wall shooting as of late.  The Wiz have scored only 89 points in each of their last 2 games and they missed the cover by a whopping 54 points OVER the spread in their last 2 games.  I will take the best team in basketball who is off a loss at Indiana and will be focused here tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Alabama -4

South Carolina is shorthanded with suspensions and a deplorable road team, not to mention on the road they score only 58 ppg this season while allowing 66.  A recipe for disaster tonight against Bama at home.  South Carolina 2-12 ATS their last 14 road games guys and no offense on the road this time of year is doom. Bama lost at South Carolina last month so this is a revenge game here.  Bama 12-4 SU at home.  No bench for the Gamecocks will do them in.

Play 1 Unit on Roll Tide

Kansas -6

Bill Self does this sneaky thing every year, he gets his young team better as the season progresses and gets them dialed in for post season play.  KU has DOMINATED this series 26-9-1 ATS the last 36 meetings because they are always better and this years edition is no exception and K State managed just 42 points in a blowout loss at Baylor this weekend (no shooters and little second chance points) and have managed just 57 ppg on offense their last 5 games as compared to Kansas who has averaged 72.  KU flat out better and since the beat them by 11 three weeks ago, K State has regressed.  K State has lost 8 out of their last 10 games SU and Bill Self will come in here and make a statement on national TV tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas 

Indiana -6.5
Yes the Hoosiers are not a good road team but Rutgers is the only team in the Big 10 without a winning home record  and they are a whipping post for most all Big 10 teams.  Indiana in a dog fight for post season positioning and every win counts and this is a winnable road test for them.  Rutgers offense is deplorable, 55 ppg on offense their last 5 games.  They cannot keep pace, this is a double digit win for Indiana.
Play 1 Unit on Indiana 

Loyola of Chicago +10
Loyola is 9-2 ATS on the road, both team play good defense and this will be a low scoring game.  Loyola's last game they managed just 39 points against mighty Northern Iowa however they held the Panthers to just 58 points and 5 out of their last 7 games have went under the number.  I do think Illinois St is the better team soley based on the fact they have a rebounding edge here that will give them some easy points but I expect neother team to reach past 62 points on offense and overall stats show Loyola with the better FG% and 3 point %.  These teams have identical records and it should be a tight game throughout.
Play 2 Units on Loyola Chicago - TOP PLAY

Kent State -1
This line baffles me, Kent State is vastly better and already has a 10 point win over Ohio U this season.  Kent State is one of the better teams in the MAC at 18-8 and their defense is 13 ppg better than Ohio U's in their last 5 games.  They laid 7 in the first meeting and won by 10 and now lay 1?  The fact the Flashes have lost 3 out of their last 4 gives us great line value here against a team they can get healthy against today, even on the road.
Play 1 Unit on Kent State 

LSU -4
The Tigers are strong at home and should have beat Kentucky in here while Billy Donovan has suspended his top 2 scorers again for this game which puts the gators in a hole on the road, where they are 2-6 SU on the year with roadies where they score just 63 ppg on the road versus LSU's 76 ppg at home this year where they are 13-3 SU.  Short number against a short handed Gator team, I will lay it.
Play 1 Unit on LSU 

Portland -4.5

Blazers vastly better, added to the roster yesterday and the Jazz traded away more than 1 good player.  Kanter and Novak are gone, Utah has issues scoring, Portland does not and the Blazers are a full blown playoff team and are 4-1 ATS the last 5 games in Utah.  I like them tonight and the line has dropped a full point.

Play 1 Unit on Portland 

San Antonio -3

I am going to make this short and Sweet.  A long layoff teams come out rusty and at times unpredictable.  Not the case with the veteran Spurs, they are experienced and well coached.  Blake Griffin is out for LA, he had 31 points in the previous meeting.  Huge blow to Clippers no matter how well Jordan is playing.  Spurs defense is VASTLY better than the Clippers and will be a big factor in this game.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio

Under 144 Okie State and ISU

Yes Iowa State plays no defense what so ever, but OSU a tough challenge because they play GREAT defense at home and slow the pace of the game.  I would not be surprised to see OSU win this one as a dog, but the stronger lean is the Under here.  This line is 26 points over the average home game scoring stat that Okie State has.  Iowa State likes to run, but Okie State does not and I expect the tempo in this one to Iowa States disliking.

Play 2 Units on the Under. 

Wake Forest +12

Notre Dame is just 3-7 ATS their last 10 games are are just 6-15-1 ATS their last 22 home games.  If you look at the recent stats, which are the last 5 games each as played, amazingly the stats are dead even almost and in fact Wakes numbers are better.  One glaring stat is that Notre Dame has allowed 50% in FG% from the floor on defense in their last 5 games and Wake has put up 70 ppg their last 5 games and have a distinct advantage on the boards in this game, which should keep them well within this number.

Play 1 Unit on Wake Forest. 

BONUS PLAY – HALF UNIT – Drake +10.5

Kansas -1.5

Have no illusions, this is tough road trip for any team and Kansas off a big game Saturday against Baylor, so that is a small concern, but as I look deeper, West Virginia cannot beat anyone that is worth a shit.  Look at their wins in the Big 12, six of their 7 wins have come against Big 12 bottoms feeders K State, TCU and lowly Texas Tech.  Bear in mind also they Kansas last year in the season finale and KU has some revenge in mind.  Anyone good UWV has played has whipped their ass including Iowa State who plays no defense what so ever.  Kansas flat out better, even on a tough floor for WV, Kansas is better.  WV 1-4 their last 5 games on Big Monday and Huggins is 1-8 against Bill Self and KU.  KU better on offense, depth and talent.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas 

Northern Iowa -10.5
MIzzou St is with 3 players who have started this year and to my count, suit up 8 scholarship players against a 12th ranked Panther team who can play with anyone in the country.  MSU has managed just 52 ppg on offense and allowed 63 ppg their last 5 and already have been beaten by 14 against NIU when they were healthy.
Play 2 Units on Northern Iowa  

Texas –16.5

Texas Tech is Deplorable, I mean Deplorable on the road.  Their last 5 road games they scored 51, 43, 36, 58, and 38.   In their last 5 games overall they have averaged 49 ppg on offense and allowed 70 ppg in those 5.  Texas tech has lost their last 5 road games by an average of 24 ppg.  Need I say more – Lay the Wood.  Texas lost 4 in a row, one included OT, and that was against good teams, they are off a monster blowout win over a TCU team vastly better than Texas Tech who is 0-9 on the road including nuetral court games.

Play 1 Unit on Texas

Wichita State -4

Smells like a trap line.  The Shockers beat ISU by 8 last month laying 14.5 points, the only spread they have not covered against Illinois Stat since March of 2012.  Now the spread is only 4 and ISU does not have a huge homecourt advantage.  The Shockers defense allowing just 53 ppg their last 3 and ISU has covered just 1 out of their last 9 games.  

Play 1 Unit on Wichita State 

Oklahoma State -3

This is my top play.  TCU is free fall and managed no more than 57 ppg on offense in their last 3 games and Okie State is peaking right now, just beat Baylor, Texas and Kansas and TCU has lost 7 in a row.  Two teams in 2 different directions.

Play 2 Units on Okie State - TOP PLAY

Grizzles +5.5 to 6

I think Memphis is the better team, especially defensively.  OK City caught the Clippers shorthanded and at the end of a road trip in a blowout win and this line reflects the publics perception that OK City is back on track.  They are just 5-11-1 ATS against teams with over a .500 record and their frontcourt and low post play should get dominated with the Grizzles big guys.  Memphis just won a game in this series at home about 2 weeks agio by 9 points and Memphis is a great road team.

Play 2 Units on Memphis

Southern Illinois +2.5

Like SOU in this one, as the Ramblers of Loyola –Chicago have lost 5 out of 6 with their guard Milton Doyle, who had 11 ppg and almost 5 assists.  He is out tonight and Loyola is not an offensive team and losing one of their leading scorers is bad news.  Neither team a great team but the Salukis offense has more capability and the Ramblers in their last 10 games have hit just 58% from the charity stripe and in a tight game that stat matters, taking the dog here to put up more points.  SIU won the first meeting 3 weeks ago by 7, I like them here catching the points. 

Play 1 Unit on Southern Illinois 

Wisconsin -9

Yes Nebraska is at home and they are a different animal in Lincoln, but cannot ignore the offensive output of 43 points on Saturday at Penn State and Wisconsin plays some good defense as well.  The Badgers avenging a season ending loss last year in Lincoln on national TV and the Huskers not near the team they were last year and Wisconsin is no doubt one of the top teams in the nation, deep and talented and they average 20 ppg more on offense than Nebraska in their last 5 game averages.  Huskers cannot hang late in the game with the scoring potential of Wisconsin.  Every single stat edge I handicap, all of them, all favor Wisconsin.  The Badgers not a great cover team, but they should blowout the Huskers tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Wisconsin

BONUS PLAY – LA Lakers -2 over Denver.  Denver the worst cover team in the NBA and have lost 6 in a row against the spread.

Utah +5.5

Davis is out for New Orleans which is their whole team basically, he makes them go.,  The Pelicans have allowed 105 ppg their last 5 games while scoring only 100, that is not a good thing as Utah plays some defense and is playing a better brand of Hoops right now.  I will take the points here.

Play 1 Unit on Utah

BONUS PLAY:  Iowa State+5.5  – Must win road game, Cyclones can light it up in a hurry, have better shooters, and I realize the OU defense is good but can they score?  I will take the points as OU allowed 81 to ISU in their last game in Ames.  

Memphis -1.5
Grizzles off a loss but Atlanta who has dominated the NBA the past 2 months is off a HUGE Win against Golden St and this is massive letdown spot.  Memphis off an embarrassing loss against Minnesota, but they are dialed in here, and they are 47-22-2 ATS at home the last 71 games and they play great defense at home as well, plus are playing with revenge  after losing in January to the Hawks.  I can easily see Atlanta struggling here and Memphis winning by 6-8 points.  It is all about scheduling in the NBA, and this is a good spot for the Griz.
Play 1 Unit on Memphis. 

Play 1 Unit on Indiana -7.5

Michigan very short handed, with 2 stars out and their offense is in a funk, just 54 ppg their last 5.  Hoosiers have covered all four games in this series the last 2 years in a row at 4-0 ATS - make it 5 in a row.  Indiana should bury them at home.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana 

Murray St -11.5
Austin Pea in trouble here, allowing 50% from the floor their last 5 and Murray St the class of the conference with Payne and Williams both expected to have a field day against this defense.  Way to much firepower for AP to contend with here and they have dropped their last 3 home games to lesser teams, some by double digits.
1 Unit on Murray State 

Kansas -1
KU's offense clicking, they just ripped through 4 top tier teams in the Big 12, and as usual KU continues to improve as the season rolls along.  They have won 8 out of 10 SU in this series and Okie State is struggling on offense at 60 ppg their last 5 games.,  KU has too much offense and outside game for OSU.
Play 1 Unit on Kansas 

Notre Dame +9.5
Duke has covered 3 spreads since January 7th.  The stats are even and while Duke is playing with revenge, I just do not see this this big of a line with any valuer on Duke.  This will be a tight game all the way, the Irish match up well.
Play 1 Unit

Toronto / LA Clippers UNDER 211.5

I have a power rating of this game at 204, and my numbers are always fairly precise guys, and rarely do you see an overlay of more than 3 or 4 points.  Look at the last 5 games these 2 have played and I find Toronto’s defense allowing 106 and the Clips at 97.  In fact LA has went under in 7 out of their last 10 games.  I expect a tight game between 2 teams both off a loss and under the number tonight.  I have it at 204.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

Phoenix +4.5

Not sold on Portland even at home here, they are in a slide.  The Suns ALWAYS give the Blazers fits and have won 7 out of the last 9 in this series including about 3 weeks ago.  Tight one to the end, points attractive.

Play 1 Unit on the Suns

Dallas -3

Play one unit on the Mavs who are heating up but off a loss at Golden State, both teams off losses at GS.  Dallas deeper and better here.

Play 1 Unit on Dallas

Oregon State -7

OSU’s defense unreal and while they are a middle of the pack team in the PAC 12, they are undefeated at home this year and have covered all but 2 games at home.  Washington State already got waxed at home by OSU scoring just 47 points against this vaunted defense.  Washington St just 5 covers on the road their last 27 attempts!

Play 1 Unit on Oregon State. 

Drake +2

Cannot trust So Illinois on the road, just 2 wins all year on the road and their offense is just deplorable, and they average just 57 ppg on the road.  Drake is no juggernaut but have played better ball the past few weeks and while only .500 at home, this is a winnable game for them because they have the better offense here plus home court. Drake has shot 49% from the floor and 46% from beyond the arc their last 5 games.  Southern Illinois has yet to win a conference road game this season and they are 2-9 ATS the last 11 meetings in this series and they have just covered 3 out of their last 12 games overall.  Drake off back to back wins and just beat a decent Evansville team in here scoring 75 points in the process.

Play 1 Unit on Drake

BONUS Half Unit Play:  Kansas State -4.5 

Mo Valley Free Play

Wichita St @ Bradley

We are catching Wichita State off a loss at Northern Iowa in what was a battle between the two top teams in the Mo Valley, BOTH ranked in the Top 20 headed into that showdown on Saturday.  I fully expect Wichita St to bounce back with a vengeance tonight against a shorthanded Bradley team who lost to bottom feeder Drake by 12 points on their vaunted home floor in their last home game.

Bradley has Warren Jones and Ka’Darryl Bell suspended for this game, their best 2 guards which account for 20 ppg, for an off campus incident that resulted in charges by local law enforcement.  The Shockers will pounce all over the Braves tonight and they have a habit of beating the daylights out of weak sisters and covering double digit spreads against them.  Bradley can ill afford to be shorthanded tonight and I am positive of one thing, the Shockers wants a big bounce back and the set up tonight could be no better for them.  Bradley only scores 57 ppg on the season and the Shockers allow just 56 ppg on the season and now Bradley without their 2 guards?  Game Over, Shockers have covered 11 out of the last 12 in this series, you can add another one tonight.

Lay the Wood on Bradley -16.5 

CBB Double Header tonight with more Mo Valley Action and a Big 12 Bonus Play.  Check out Tony’s action now

Golden State -9
The Warriors offense is a mis-match against the defense of the Kings.  As a matter of fact the Warriors in their last 5 games against the Kings have averaged over 10 points OVER THE SPREAD.  GS laid 15.5 in the last game played back on 1/23, and beat them by 25.  GS got back on the right track the other day with a goods second half and they are a total mis-match for Sacramento with every stat advantage except free throws.
Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Iowa State +7

I will take the points with a high flying Iowa State going up against the Jayhawks at Phog Allen with KU trying to avenge a loss in Ames a few weeks back.  Kansas’s offense is struggling and their youth is still showing, and Iowa State’s ability to score (81 ppg their last 5) will keep them in this game. 

Iowa State +7 for 1 Unit

Play a half unit play on the Memphis Grizzles -3 tonight. 

Play 2 Units - Top Play on North Carolina +5.5  Better team, better offense.  Louisville's offense is inconsistent and NC also has bench scoring.  

Kansas – 11

Kansas dominated K State, dating back to 2010 they have covered all but 1 spread in this series, and at Phog Allen Arena, KU is a beast.  They have won their last 6 contests at home in the Sunflower Showdown by an average of 20.5 ppg including beat downs of K State versions the past 2 years by 26 points in each game in Lawrence.  Kansas off a piss poor performance at TCU and practice has been no fun this week according to my sources and Bill Self will smart Bruce Webber as always in this big game.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

Houston -6

Rockets doing just fine without Dwight Howard, they have all 3 games in his absence and Boston after a couple of good games and a rare road win are back to normal, getting beat by 12 to lowly Minnesota on Wednesday Night.  Houston has won 7 out of the last 9 meetings in this series and won by 14 already once this year.  Houston bench scoring and depth is a huge advantage and Houston’s defense forced 24 turnovers in their last game against Dallas, and Houston has covered 10 out of the last 13 in Boston.  Houston tends to beat up bad teams, they have covered 11 out of their last 12 games against a team with a losing record.

Play 1 Unit on the Rockets

NOTE: College Hoops triple header tomorrow morning by 10 am CST – 75% ATS the last 2 Saturdays overall.  8 Play Super Bowl Card out now - $5 a play - $35 card - Side, Total, Tease and 5 money making props 

Utah -5.5

Easy money here.  These two played 3 weeks ago and powerhouse and #10 Utah beat the tar out of UCLA 71-39 laying 11.5 points and UCLA is without Parker again and his 10 ppg, and since he has sat out the last 2 games, UCLA has lost those 2 games by 11 and 18 points to lesser teams than Utah and we are laying 6?  Take it.  Utes win by double digits and their defense will be too much for UCLA again.

Play 1 Unit on Utah

Stanford -1.5 to 2

Stanford off a 19 point win against AZ State and Washington off an ass kicking at the hands of Utah, who also covered a double digit spread against Washington in that game. Washington on a 5-5 run and struggling against good teams and Stanford on a 8-2 run with some wins during that stretch including Texas on the road, and Stanford better outside and deeper on the bench.

Play 1 Unit on Stanford

West Virginia +1.5

Not sold on K State who is enjoying some limelight in the Big 12, and bear in mind they have mighty Kansas on deck.  Huggins will have his boys ready to play and he has some sharp shooters that should do well against the man defense that K State runs.  West Virginia has not forgot the ass kicking by 22 points they took in here last year and K State is not as good as rebounding team as WV and those are easy points.  Many love K State here, they are on a roll, but off a huge win and Kansas on deck, I think the Mountaineers come in here and get a win tonight.  While K State has been decent lately bear in mind they are 4 games over .500 on the year.  Sandwich spot for K State on the schedule. 

Play 1 Unit on West Virginia

Bonus Play – OVER 140.5 in Arkansas / Tennessee game.  Arkansas scores like crazy at home and plays little defense. .Half Unit

Boston +7.5 to 8 

The Celtics playing some good hoops, finally got over the hump on the road trip, beat Portland, and gave Golden State all they wanted.  Utah’s offense has been in the tank the last 5 games at 92 ppg while the Celtics have found some offense in this road trip and have put up 99 ppg on offense their last 5.  Boston also has a good advantage on the glass in this matchup and I feel almost 8 points, which is a ton of points in the NBA, it very generous and I will gladly take the points.  Utah’s 3-2 stretch with these averages do not impress me, the teams they beat were the Nets, Lakers and Bucks, all of whom are free falling.

Play 1 Unit on Boston 

Indiana +8.5
Ohio State lost by 3 at Indiana 15 days ago and while they had a tough night on the floor, a closer look at that game and the Hoosiers shot 40% from the floor, and had 11 more turnobvers than OSU and they only hit 22% from beyond the arc and still won the game.  While this is a tough road test for Indiana, this is a ton of points in a battle of two good teams.  OSU is 2-2 SU their last 4 games and that includes a 2 point win over Northwestern, and they are just 3-10 ATS their last 13 Big 10 games.  
Play 1 Unit on Indiana
BONUS PLAY - Play a half unit on Washington +12.5

Murray State at SIU Edwardsville

No time for a write up today as I am traveling.  

Play two units on Murray State

MIch St -2.5 at Nebraska

I am traveling and don't have time for a write up on this.  Mich St should bury Nebraska today.

Play one unit on Michigan State

Golden State -8

The red hot Warriors just beat Houston on the road by 25 and while the Rockets may cut into that deficit alittle, they are allowing 109 ppg on thee defensive side of the ball their last 5 games and in the Warriors last 5 games they have averaged 117 ppg on offense, and at home they are 18-1 SU and are vastly better than Houston.  GS off a 42 point win over the Nuggets after beating Houston by 25 this past weekend…red hot, and riding them here at home.  Golden St have covered the last 4 games in this series dating back through last season by an average of 10 points OVER THE SPREAD!

Play 2 Units on Golden State   

Indiana State +13.5 to 14

Defense and tempo.  That is what Northern Iowa plays (47 ppg allowed in last 5 games)  and the fact ISU is a high percentage shooting team in FG% and also plays a slow down approach brings big points into play.  Indiana St has covered 4 out of the last 5 in this series.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana State

Bonus Half Unit Play – Evansville (pick’ em) Playing with revenge.  

Illinois State -8.5

Drake is one bad basketball team, 4 wins all year.  Bottom feeder in the Mo Valley and they cannot score to save their life.  They finally had a breakout game against Indiana State Saturday where they broke 80 points but before that game, they managed 47 -40-45-37 and 58 points dating back to Christmas Eve.  Illinois State is a solid team and at a huge advantage on offense.  These 2 teams played back on the 7th and Illinois State was a 81-45 winner laying 12.5 points and now they lay 8.5?   Vastly better team, Blowout win here by 15+  Drakes leading scorer on their team this season averages 9 points per game.  Drake has covered just 9 out of their last 34 games. Unreal!

Play 1 Unit on Illinois State

Bonus Play – Half Unit – Iowa +8.5  

Detroit +8

SCHEDULING SPOT.  This is a good one for Detroit who is playing with revenge off a 3 point loss to Atlanta where they lost the game a mere 3 points shooting less than 40% from the floor in that game.  Atlanta off a grueling road trip that saw them face some of the best teams in the East and some hard fought wins, but 4 games in 5 days and return home laying a big number against a hot team is a TAKE for the Pistons who should compete well here tonight.  The 12 game streak has to end sometime as now the hype is building, tonight could be the night, but I like the points here big time.  Detroit good $$ on the road covering 7 of their last roadies in a row.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit 

TCU -2.5
Ken Pom Rating of 50 and a good team off 3 straight Big 12 losses against a Texas tech Team ranked 168 on Ken Pom and a team who has serious issues scoring  TCU 13-3 and looking for a Big 12 win here, I think they get it done and win by 5-8 points.
Play 1 Unit on TCU 

Miami +6.5
Like the momentum and a win off Duke for the Hurricanes.  Notre Dame has been suspended Zach Auguste who has 14 ppg and 6 rebounds, a good power forward.  ND has played Virginia and North Carolina in the last 12 days along with Georgia Tech.  Miami capable here and this is too many points in what should be a very tight game.  
Play 1 Unit on Miami

Wichita State -5
Evansville has a good team this year but the Shockers are on a roll defensively allowing just 54 ppg their last 5 games and 58 on the season and provide some matchup issues for the Aces.  The Shockers also have a deeper bench and better coaching and overall they are the creme of the crop in the Mo Valley.  Evansville coming back down to earth going just 2-2 SU their last 4 games and 1-3 ATS
Play 1 Unit on Wichita State

New Orleans -6.5

The Pelicans need games like this to keep pace in the west and the 76ers are without their leading scorer and are averaging 86 ppg on offense and allowing 96 in their last 5 games.  No brainer blowout here.  2nd leading scorer for Philly is doubtful too….wow. 

Short and Sweet – Lay it for 1 to 2 Units on New Orleans 

Huskers +14.5

Nebraska 20-8 ATS last 28 Big 10 Games, and their defense is stellar allowing 58 their last 5 games and Huskers on a 2 game win streak.  Wisconsin of a bad loss, and I expect them to win buyt laying 14.5 points in a defensive battle is always worth the points and the dog and Nebraska capable here despite offensive struggles.  

Play 1 Unit on Nebraska 

Golden State -7.5

The Warriors are red hot and rested.  Off a 6-0 run in their last 6 at home winning by an average of 22 ppg, I will take them tonight against the Jazz who lack consistency from the outside and the backcourt to match points with Curry and company. The Jazz do not match up well here.  Bear in mind the Warriors offensive power should not cloud the fact they are one of the better perimeter defenses around.  Big step up in class for the Jazz who have won 7 out of their last 12. 

Play 1 Unit on Golden State 

Kentucky -14
I have this line at at 18 in my power ratings and Texas AM off a bad loss to Alabama and they cannot shoot outside, they will have no inside presence in this game and their best player and court general Jones was out last game and is questionable in this game, and even if he does go, not being 100% against Kentucky and their depth is a death sentence.  Kentucky will dominate the paint here.
Lay it on Kentucky for 1 Unit

SEMO -3
I have a great source out of this conference and the bottom line is that Southeast Missouri State is finally living up to preseason expectations and they take on a Moorehead State team that is regressing and turns the ball over like crazy (15 per game), and given the fact SEMO is highly ranked in steals, and plays full court pressure a ton on defense, they should win this game easily on Thursday Night.  SEMO's offense has picked up as well.  3 is a very short number here, and the fact SEMO is playing with double revenge after getting swept last year, I will make a 2 unit move here.  
Play 2 Units on SEMO

Iowa State -8

39-3 SU at home…WOW…..Hilton Arena in Ames Iowa  is one of the toughest venues in America to play in college basketball.  Iowa State besides being a good team is also a different animal at home.  Big number but the deep bench and scoring power of ISU will get over with a double digit win at home over Okie State who is a bad road bet under head coach Ford.  Love ISU here.  Line is 8 for a reason. Home court worth 4 here alone!

Play 1 Unit on Iowa State

Notre Dame +8

Only 1 loss all year and yet a Top 15 ranking and still getting 8 points on the road here for a very good and well coached Irish team.  The Irish offense scoring 85 ppg their last 5 games and both the last 5 games and the season overall the Irish have the better offense in this game, better defense glass stats and better free throw shooters.  I will gladly take the points here.

Play 1 Unit on Notre Dame

Brooklyn -2.5
Short and Sweet.  Miami in a funk, they are off a 36 point ass kicking at Houston and the Nets are red hot and have won 6 out of 7 and their offense is clicking/  That is good news because the Heat have allowed 103 ppg their last 5 games.  Hot team, little number, I am taking them.
Play 1 Unit on Brooklyn 

Evansville -3.5
Indiana State has 5 wins this season and are 6-21 ATS their last 21 home games and are 17-36 their last 53 games overall and the road team in this series is 7-2 ATS and the Purple Aces come in here 11-2 SU and they have lost hose 2 games by a total of 4 points.  Look for them to get the win here by 8-10 points against a team who cannot trade punches on the scoreboard with them today.  Road wins in the MO Valley are always at a premium and I love the Aces here.
Play 1 Unit on Evansville 

Bulls -5
Short sand Sweet here.  The Bulls are on fore scoring over 100 ppg in 5 out of their last 6, all wins and they have ripped off 9 out of 10 SU and Derrick Rose is finally living up to expectations, which is bad news for the Pacers who beat the Bulls last month and the Bulls will exact revenge tonight.
Play 1 Unit on Chicago 

Kentucky -6
The only time Kentucky has been favored by single digits this season was against Kansas and they pounded them by 32 points and all of their 12 wins have come by double digits this year.  FOR REAL.  10 players deep, hard to defend, monsters on the glass and clearly the best team in the College Hoops ranks.  Lousville a nice team, this is a huge rivalry in Hoops or Football but at days end Kentucky head and shoulders above anyone, including the Cards.  Calipari will have his team ready, and bear in mind as good as Pitino is as a coach, he does not play the game.
Play 1 Unit on Kentucky

Brooklyn Nets +11

While Toronto is a great team and tough at home and I do not expect the Nets to win this game, but 11 points is a ton against a team in Brooklyn that plays defense well.  The Nets have allowed just 93 ppg their last 5 games and the Raptors have scored on the average in their last 5 games just over 100 ppg.  The Raptors are 11-1 SU against teams with a losing record but in their last 10 games this is the highest spread they have had, and they are just 5-5 ATS their last 10 games.

Play 1 Unit on Brooklyn  

Memphis -2.5

Oddsmakers begging you take a team on a16 win streak here, as the Warriors are hot as hell and a damn good team.  This is their 3rd game in 4 days on the road, and they have OK City on deck Thursday Night on a national TNT Game.  There is a huge mis-match down low here where Memphis should dominate the paint, and with Memphis on a 4 game win streak of their own, but Bogut is out for GS and that is huge and GS off an OT win as well and on the road the next game up in that scenario is always a good fade spot against a good team. Memphis’s last 2 games have went to OT but at home with 2 days rest.   Memphis had a scare at Philly but pulled it and they will be fired up for this one against the NBA’s best team.  Memphis is sneaky good, getting great point guard play, and tough as nails at home. Memphis 5-2 ATS the last 7 in this series and playing with double revenge.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis. 

Gonzaga -4.5
Like the Zags here over UCLA.  The Zags are a monster big team with a deep bench.  The same cannot be said for UCLA who lacks depth and the size to match up.  Not sold on UCLA - they played 2 good teams all year and lost them both.  The Zags lobe loss is an OT game at Arizona - they are ranked 8th in the nation and may be their best team they have had if the chemistry develops this season.  I like them here -points in the paint will be KEY for the Zags.
Play 1 Unit on Gonzaga 

Houston -1

No Dwight Howard still for Houston, but I like the Rockets here against the Kings, who cannot close out a game it seems.  With Cousins out for the Kings, they miss his point production and both teams off a loss here, but the King’s off a bad loss at the Lakers while a red hot Golden State team who plays good defense beat up the Rockets.  Houston has more offensive firepower, they are better on the offensive glass, and Kings home floor is not the advantage it has been in years past either.  The Kings relay on their bench and the Houston starters average over 20 ppg more than the Kings starters.  Cheap number, looks like a set up, but CLEARLY the better team here is Houston and laying less than 3 here is a gift.

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

LA Clippers -6.5 to 7

Really, Indiana is going to compete here?  Their last game at home was a blowout loss to Atlanta by 16 points and trust me when I tell you the Clippers will OWN the paint in this one, have more offensive firepower, better rebounding and better star power on the floor. 118 ppg their last 3 games for the Clips on offense, and Indiana just 94 in their last 3 games.  The Clippers are ALSO playing with triple revenge, they have lost 3 straight to the Pacers.  Perfect storm for a blowout winner.

Play 2 Units on the LA Clippers. 

Phoenix -4.5

Miami is reeling, the chemistry is not there on offense and they have suffered 4 straight defeats by double digits and now travel to the desert to take on a good Suns team off an OT loss to the Clippers.  The Heats 89 ppg on offense the last 5 versus the Suns last 5 where they have scored 107 ppg?  The Heat are in a tailspin, and Bosh if coming off a horrible game and Wade cannot carry them here.   Usually I like to fade a team off an OT loss but Miami is allowing 55% from the floor on defense the last 4 games and over 50% from the 3 point arc.  Wow. 

Play 1 Unit on the Suns.  

UNDER 198.5 Nets / Cavs

Short and Sweet here.  Brooklyn’s offense stinks, they managed 75 points in their last game and LeBron James and company have not been lighting it up.  The Nets are 10-1 ATS on the Under in their last 11 games, and the Cavs are 5-1-1 ATS on the UNDER in their last 7 road games and the Nets have not broken a 100 points on offense since Nov. 15th.  Unreal.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Ohio State +8

Louisville has not really played anyone near as good as Ohio State who enters this game ranked 13th and the Cards ranked 5th.  8 points is a TON of points for 2 teams that have displayed defensive prowess to date, Louisville allows just 46 ppg and Ohio State 57 ppg but it is Ohio States offense that have averaged 10 ppg more on offense than the Cards to date.  Lower scoring and tough defense brings points into play.  This one will not come easy, 2 good coaches going at it with 2 good teams, I will take the points.

Play 1 Unit on Ohio State 

Atlanta +4

Like the Hawks at home with this number gents, especially off a win last night against the Wizards.  Most impressive has been the depth of the Hawks, 30 points off the bench in a big win Tuesday.  The Raptors on a 5 game win streak, but I like to fade travel teams near or on Holidays if the line is ripe, and this is a live home dog here, I will grab the points.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta 

Dallas -3.5

The Mavs are hot and the key in this game is simple, the Hornets cannot keep pace on offense against the Mavs who averaged winning their last 4 games by 25 ppg and average 109 ppg on the season on offense and Charlotte just 96 points, and off a long trip, Dallas is the last team you want to open up a home stand against.  Mavs deep on the bench and red hot.  Dallas 7-2 SU and ATS. 

Play 1 Unit on Dallas.   

UNDER 203.5 Cavs / Pelicans

Too many points here , neither team averages over 100 ppg on offense, and Monday games tend to be sluggish anyway and New Orleans is a lot better than you think and held the Spurs to under 100 on their home floor and won the game outright.  Yes the Cavs put together a good game against Denver but the Pelicans provide a stiffer test.  Pelicans play some defense and rebound well taking away easy points and we all know Cleveland is an outside team all the way and do not get a lot of put backs rebounding inside.

Play 1 Unit on the Under  

Houston -4

San Antonio not in sync, age is showing and Harden and Howard and company are a machine early on here.  San Antonio still a good team but Green has played horrid and his shooting is bad, the Spurs second half efforts have fallen short and they had to play a full 4 quarters last night to beat Atlanta last night and the Spurs scoring cannot trade punches right now with Houston who is 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU this season and the Spurs have yet to cover a spread.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

Pacers +9.5

Wait on this line, it may go up.  The hype is Indiana beat the Wiz in the playoffs last year , but other than 2 losses in 4 games they split recently, the Pacers have won 9 straight.  The points here are simply Vegas oddsmakers seeing Washington is scoring 101 ppg and Indiana just 91, and they are off a piss poor effort in their last game and were horrific from the floor in that game.  It improves tonight and they hang within this number.  I like taking big points early in the season.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana and the points

BONUS PLAY – OVER 202 in the Nuggets and Kings Game. 

LA Clippers -8.5

Who better to get healthy on than the Jazz, who stink on the road and the Clips OWN this team.  Off an embarrassing loss to the Kings look for LA to focus in tonight and pull out all the stops.  They have not looked all that good to open the season, I think it changes tonight.  The Clips are 9-0 the last 9 SU versus Utah and have beat them 5 straight at home in blow away fashion.  Look for the Clippers to flex their muscle tonight and put together a good game.

Play 1 Unit on the Clippers

San Antonio -5.5

Interesting that Miami’s last 5 games headed into the Finals they averaged 89 ppg allowed on defense.  Now they average 10-3 ppg allowed their last 5 games while scoring only 95.  WOW.  That is why you are down 3-1 and going to lose in San Antonio.  Since the Dallas Series they have destroyed everyone at home , usually by double digits and they look forward to putting away the Heat the heat on the strongest home floor in the NBA.  The Spurs are the best team here and just put on a clinic in game 4, that was evidence alone the last 2 games and Miami has no answer for the total TEAM effort San Antonio throws at you.  Hate to be laying points in any championship series, and this is a big number in the NBA anytime, but if the Heat get down big again they will toss it in.  Parker is shredding them inside, the bench of the Spurs has talent with little drop off from the first unit, they are fresher than Miami,  and it is apparent James and Wade cannot carry this team and role players simply are not stepping up with Chalmers, Allen and Bosh no shows for the most part.  Miami looks beat and tired, they simply have no answer for the Spurs.  I see World Champs being crowned written all over this one.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio. 

If in fact they win – I want to thank you all for your support this NBA Season which was over 62% ATS on the SEASON, Top Plays at 70% ATS+ and the Playoffs which were awesomely good!  Thank you very much for your confidence in Tony George Sports 

Under 197
2 of 3 games have went over.  If Miami expects to win they HAVE to hold the Spurs to under 100 points, if not they will lose every game moving forward.  In most scenario's this would be a balls to the wall shootout to win one at home, Miami cannot do that.  They averaged 89 ppg allowed their last 5 games coming into the Finals, and they NEED to get back to that mentality.  Slow it down, play good defense and get a win.  I think we see fundamental basketball from Miami today.
Play 1 Unit on the Under
2 Team 4 Point Teaser.  Tease Miami down to -1.5 and tease the total up to 201.5 and take the Under. 

San Antonio +4.5

Bottom line is a line swing of 9 points is not warranted here.  These teams are dead even.  In a championship scenario I would rather be taking points versus laying them.  The Bench, road record, and scoring ability of San Antonio here (Scoring well above what Miami’s defense is averaging), is too good to pass up grabbing 4.5 points.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio 

Under 199
Short and Sweet.  Fatigue will play a part, San Antonio will not shoot 58% from the floor again, almost impossible to do that and given Miami's defense is solid and played poorly I do not see a repeat.  25 three pointers made in game 1, sloppy play down the stretch for Miami, I see a much tighter game here and lower scoring.  Even with all the shooting %'s at a high level in Game 1, the total never went over till the final minute in game 1.  
Play 1 Unit on the Under  

Spurs -4

You cannot ignore the destruction after the Dallas series that San Antonio laid on every opponent in their home arena.  The Spurs are 7-0 ATS their last 7 home appearances and they are 7-0 ATS at home their last 7 with teams that have a winning road record.  Miami is up and down and struggled in a few series and in some games they should not have.  The KEY is the bench at home for the Spurs, and also in this series.  It is a GREAT bench, and at home and Parker playing it is a no brainer.  Have no doubts, this will be a topsy turvey Finals with both teams winning games and someone has to steal one somewhere, and I am not a fan of laying points, but taking them with 2 good teams but I am laying it in this opener with the better team. 

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio