#525 South Carolina-2.5 @ Clemson - 1 Unit Play

I am not normally one to play a road favorite in such a big spot for the home team. Yet the advantages here are strong enough to justify. South Carolina is #15 in my new power rankings that came out this week and for good reason.

The Gamecocks have had one of the best starts in college basketball this season, have a long time over achieving coach in Frank Martin and have talent and depth advantages in this heated in state rivalry game.

Martin expanded the recruiting territory for South Carolina and came up with a pair of talented players from Lithuania in Mindaugas Kacinas and Laimonas Chatkevicius. The combo is averaging over 26 points and 10 rebounds per game this season. Chatkevicius is shooting 44% from three point range this season while also blocking 1.5 shots per game as well.

The Gamecocks have beaten eight of nine opponents by double digits with an eight point win at Tulsa the only team to even stay within double figures of the undefeated Gamecocks.

South Carolina is doing it with defense and scoring in the paint. They have attempted just 149 three pointers this season, which in 2015 is not very many as most teams average around 20 attempts per game.. Yet they have made 59 for almost 40% shooting from behind the arc to compliment their strong inside play.

Clemson is 7-3 but has yet to beat any quality opponents and has already lost to Minnesota, Alabama, and UMASS, all three of which are having down years. Much of their offense relies heavily on the three point shot falling as they have taken 222 three pointers in 10 games this season 02 22.2 three point attempts per game.

The Tigers have shot just 36% from behind the arc and that comes against soft competition. South Carolina will be the toughest test of the season for Clemson and unless they get really hot behind the arc they just do not have the talent, depth, athleticism, or coaching to win this one. South Carolina extends their unbeaten streak to 10 this season with an easy road win over in state rival Clemson.

BONUS HALF UNIT - #537 Santa Clara +8 ½ @ Nevada

There is unrest abound in the Nevada program these days. Just two days ago the Wolf pack’s leading returner player from last season, C A.J. West quit the team. West was averaging 10 points, eight rebounds and almost two blocks per game before quitting the team. West averaged a double-double last season averaging 12.6 points and 11 rebounds per game.

This will be Nevada’s first game without West and they are an overrated 7-3 this season having played an extremely soft schedule. They have losses to Hawaii, Cal State Fullerton, and Oregon State and do not have a win over a top 100 team this year as all seven wins came against extremely soft competition.

Santa Clara started out 0-7 this season against some really tough competition including Wisconsin-Milwaukee, UC Irvine, Arizona, and Evansville. Yet after that 0-7 start they have rebounded with four straight wins including a win over ACC team Boston College.

A.J. West has been the best rebounder in the Mountain West for two consecutive seasons and Nevada will have to adjust to not having their best defender, rebounder, and reliable big man in the middle anymore. This will change the way that Nevada is able to defend teams as the guards will no longer have that rim protector behind them when they make mistakes. It is going to take a little time to adjust to the loss of West and the new style of play. Look for this one to be very close throughout and a battle tested Santa Clara team to give Nevada all they want Friday night and easily cover this generous spread.

#544 Texas Tech -1.5 vs South Dakota State

I have made as much money off South Dakota State as any team in the nation thus far this season. They have been as good as I thought and more jumping out to a 9-1 straight up record. Yet like most successful mid major programs they can ill afford to have injuries to star players due to lack of talent and depth.

Unfortunately for South Dakota their senior leader George Marshall hurt his foot in a meaningless win over Division II Wayne State and will be out for a significant amount of time. Marshall was averaging 12.9 points (2nd on team), 2.9 assists (2nd on team), 1.3 steals (1st on team) and 32 minutes (1st on team) per game. Not only was he possible the best player on the team but was the senior floor general for the Jackrabbits as well.

Tubby Smith has finally started to turn things around in Lubbock this season. The Red Raiders return four of five starters from last season.  They also used their international trip this summer heading to Canada where they won all four exhibition games in the tour.

Senior Guard Devaugntah Williams, last season’s leading scorer has become the complete player that Tubby hoped he would be and the results have been a huge boost for Texas Tech. Williams is averaging 16.1points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 90% from the free throw line.

Texas Tech has a lot more depth this season with eight players averaging 15 or more minutes per game and are 6-1 with the only loss coming against a very talented Utah squad on a neutral court.

Look for Williams to have a big game and Texas Tech to have too much depth and firepower for this South Dakota State team playing without their senior leader Marshall.

Texas Tech - 1 Unit 

Bucks -3

The Lakers just lost 2 games by a combined total of 51 points.  I watched both those games and quite frankly LA is one of the worst teams in the NBA outside of Philly and the Bucks ended Golden States streak this weekend and are rolling along nicely.  In their last 5 games LA has given up a league worst 114 ppg on defense, just deplorable and the Lakers have NO depth.    I have an overlay of 6.5 points here and oddsmakers at 2.5, plenty of value in the Favorite here and LA has 1 home win all season.  Unreal, and Kobe is a shell of himself and plays little to no defense.

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee 

Charlotte +3.5

No time for writeup today - but Charlotte is red hot and won 8 out of 10 and have too much offense for memphis to counter with.  

Play 1 Unit on Charlotte 

Washington St -6.5
The Cougars are playing Idaho and playing with revenge as Idaho punked them in PUllman last year, and the Cougs are scoring 15 ppg more on offense, they are 5-1 SU this season and their only loss was a 6 point loss to mighty Gonzaga.  Dating back to last season Wash. St is on a 8-2 ATS run, and are 4-1 ATS in lined games this season.  Road game here or the line would be double digits at home.  
Play 1 Unit on Washington State 

Minnesota -6.5

The Lakers are pathetic and also this is a spot for what is called a spot bet.  This is the 6th road game for the Lakers, and their last 3 games on the road have resulted in them losing by 9,20 And 13.  Minny has lost 3 in a row at home but have been competitive in every game against far better teams than the Lakers.  Anytime a team is on a tail end of a road run of 5 or more games that team is fade opportunity and the Lakers only bright spot is the cheering that Kobe gets from opposing crowds on his Farwell tour and Kobe is a shell of himself as far as a contributor of any significant effect on the outcome of a game.  Minny is better away from home than they are at home, but this is a great spot for them to get a win on this 4 game home stand before they head out on the road and they own numerous stat advantages here in this matchup including bench scoring.

Play 1 Unit on Minnesota. 

Play 1 Unit on Boston

Fading the Pelicans.  They are off a OT upset win over the Cavs, where James had only 7 points.  I love to fade double digit dogs off a huge win over a good team the next game.  Cletics vastly better.

Maryland +6

I will take the #2 team in the nation here against NC at home, as NC lost top Northern Iowa already and not sold on them laying these points.  The Tarheels have OWNED the Terps, 7-0 against them dating back to 2012 so Maryland looking for revenge and to protect a #2 ranking. Maryland has better shooters and a better defense catching big points.

Play 1 Unit on Maryland 

San Antonio -4

Cheap number for the red hot Spurs.  Defense is the KEY.  No team has scored over 90 ppg on the Spurs in the last 5 games, Leonard is red hot, Duncan well rested and for the Da Bulls – Rose has managed 32% from the floor in his last 2 games and faces the best defense he has seen all year.  Spurs roll.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio 

Toronto -2.5 to -3

Washington's frontcourt should get dominated here and they have not played well as of late. Toronto will own the paint for easy points.  The Raptors have edges in scoring, free throws, turnovers, and rebounding.  Enough said - Raptors should roll here and their bench players are stepping up.  

Play 1 Unit on Toronto

BONUS PLAY - OVER 192.5 in San Antonio / Atlanta game.  Both ranked in the Top 10 in the NBA in offensive efficiency 

Pacers +2.5

Short on time - Pacers Red Hot and cashing tickets like crazy and the Wizards recent win streak fueled by beating bottom feeders.  George a huge plus in the lineup for Indiana, all over them as a dog tonight for an outright win.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana

Detroit -2.5

Like the Pistons against the Bucks here, and they are playing with Triple Revenge dating back to last season.  Detroit beat Cleveland and Minnesota with plenty of moxy before a 2 point setback at home this weekend against the Wizards in a game they should have won.  That same Washington team beat the Bucks by 29 last week, and the Bucks off 3 straight blowout losses where their offense is just not clicking and they give up a ton of points.  Detroit better at a small number here. Pistons have not covered in this series in the 6 attempts, that trend reverses tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit

Knicks +4.5

Solid road team, as a matter of fact better road team than home team, winners of 3 straight and a cover machine on the road.  Houston's offense inconsistent and I like the Knicks to continue their road performance.  better offense and better defense statistically for NY.  Like their chances of a road win here, I will take the points in a close game.

Play 1 Unit on the Knicks 

UNDER 208.5 Kings and Hawks

My Power rating on this 202, and that is a 6.5 point overlay versus the line in this game, Sacramento not at home where they shoot lights out and Hawks have been struggling on offense and Teauge is doubtful again.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

Cavs –4

James and company in a bad mood and added rest after a double OT loss to the Bucks, and Detroit in free fall dropping 5 straight and not able on offense in any 5 losses to top 100 points on offense.  Cavs ticked off, Detroit reeling, and a decent number here in what I fell will be a double digit win by the Cavs.

Play 1 Unit on Cleveland 

NY Knicks +6 to 6.5 

The Knicks are better on the road.  Wins at Toronto and Washington are impressive, 2 playoff teams last year.  Not sold at all on Charlotte carrying this number and the value lies in the dog here, and the Knicks are fully capable of winning outright.  Offensive and defensive stats are dead even here.  Knicks at least early on are road worthy of covering a number like this.

Play 1 Unit on the NY Knicks

UNDER 200 Heat / Lakers

Lakers offense slumping badly and the Miami Heat play rock solid defense, especially at home.  I do not see LA scoring more than 90 here gents.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

Detroit -5

Real simple.  Detroit is red hot and Indiana is scoring 92 ppg and allowing 105 ppg and I have seen no team chemistry at all for the Pacers.   Detroit has come out hot, they are 3-0 and have beaten some very good teams and allowing just 91 ppg so far and are clicking on offense, and this game is at home for Pistons.

Play 1 Unit on Detroit  

UNDER 195

Both teams know their key to success is to dictate tempo to their style of play, which  each team is vastly different from the other, but both played well in Game on offense and still pushed on the number and I do not see them playing the same way on Tuesday.  Neither bench scored well in Game 5, 17 points each, but for Cleveland to even this up and have a chance and stave off elimination on Tuesday, they have to get physical and muck it up against LA.  Better chance of that happening at home for Cleveland and that sets up well for a low scoring battle here.

Play 1 Unit on the Under.  IF Golden State wins this game I want to thank you for your NBA biz this season.  Best of Luck. 

Cleveland +8.5

Short and Sweet.  A tough game for both teams, but my source who has 7 Las Vegas Books under his belt has relayed to me that every big time sharp player in Vegas is on the Cavs here, and I agree.  Other than a huge setback in Game 4 due to fatigue, the Cavs have been the better team in this series.  GS went small in game 4, Cleveland made little adjustment and were dead tired.  I expect with some rest and focus Cleveland once again will hang in there till the final minute.  Too many points in this one, Cavs cover. 

Play 2 Units on Cleveland 

OVER 193

Short and Sweet.  Fatigue, lack of depth, and stars playing their guts out adds up to a tired team down the stretch.  What does that mean?  DEFENSE suffers big time.  Cleveland’s defense has been the key to their success.  Golden State will have to shoot better and expect an up-tempo style tonight to get them back in this and look for Cleveland’s fatigue to finally show up and their defense to be not as effective.  James will have his, Curry will step up, look for a higher scoring game.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

NBA Final Game 4

Golden State @ Cleveland

By Tony George

The square bet here is Cleveland getting points at home.  That is the bottom line, no doubt about it.  Let’s think about that angle a minute.  A hot team, the best player in the NBA, and underdog on their home floor, the home crowd near riot stage, so what is not to love about the Cavs getting 2.5 points tonight?  Did I mention Las Vegas oddsmakers also are begging you to take the home team tonight, especially with all the hype surrounding them.  Last time I checked, Las Vegas Sportsbooks are a “for profit” business model.

The Golden State Warriors have stunk up the joint in the Finals, and in all honesty Cleveland has beat them in every game in regulation and at one point in Game 3 had over a 20 point lead late in the 3rd quarter and beyond. The Cavs should be up 3-0 in this series.  Again what is not to love about Cleveland getting points here on their home floor?  The TV ratings have been at a 14 share or higher, and that is unheard of for the NBA.  Do you not think the NBA knows this is a money maker and they want 7 games?  Do you not think perhaps the calls may go the Warriors way tonight a little bit more than for Cleveland because of that, although things like that are a secret and always denied, we all know the drill and have seen it time and time again over the years in numerous sports. 

Fatigue and depth  is a real factor here tonight for the Cavs, and the Warriors are do or die tonight, and hardly could play any worse in tonight’s game as they did the last game where the NBA’s MVP had a total of 3 points at halftime, and still with a couple minutes left were within 3 points of tying the game!  Add all that up and I feel tonight’s line is a sucker line and Golden State rises out of the ashes here and makes a last stand to save this series for themselves.  LeBron will have his points, the guy is on fire right now and taking double the shots per game as he did in the regular season because HE HAS TO in order for the Cavs to have a shot at this thing.  At days end, Golden State has the players, talent, and depth to get it done, and Steve Kerr can coach a ton better than he has in the first 3 games.  I see all that coming to fruition tonight and a Golden State win.

FREE PRO PICK ON GOLDEN STATE -3 to -4 (the Line has skyrocketed) 

Tony’s NBA Totals plays are on a documented 13-3 ATS run, that is 81% ATS Gents, and has the Totals Winner in tonight’s game.   

Golden State +1

Here is where DEPTH takes it toll on Cleveland with only 1 day rest, a Very short bench and off 2 OT Games where James and the top 3 scorers played over 95% of the minutes and actually Cleveland really only plays 7 players.  Golden State will use their depth here to grind it out, and look for Curry to have a better day and Coach Kerr to devise a gameplan to shake Curry loose.

Play 2 Units on Golden State 

Golden State -7.5

This is not rocket science.  Without Irving the Cavs are done, perhaps in a sweep, but 6 games or less.  Without Irving the Warriors can double up LeBron, who despite his 44 points in game 1, almost half his teams points, he made bad decisions at games end that costs Cleveland who covered almost every minute of regulation in game 1 but dumped in OT.  The vaunted defense of Cleveland averaging 88 ppg headed into the Finals in their last 5 games, was shredded by Golden State and Curry did not really even go off.  James is the best player in the NBA bar none, but he simply cannot do it himself and Blatt being a terrible coach in crunch time is not helping.  If anyone saw Kyrie leave the floor on Thursday, there is little or no chance of him playing as I release this Play Friday and if he does, it will not be for long, but rep[orts are he is on crutches and getting an MRI – NOT GOOD..  He played 44 minutes on a bad knee and then re-injured it.  Not enough weapons for Cleveland to contend here without him, and Golden State will not come out limping in the first quarter like they did in Game 1, it was youth and nerves, that is now over with a win under their belt and the pressure off.  The Cavs have only covered 3 out of 13 games when playing Golden State the last 13 games!

Play 1 Unit on Golden State.  

OVER 202.5

Golden State will not be challenged outside in this game, and Cleveland knows to have any chance of winning games in this series, they have to score at least 100 ppg to make that happen.  James will his points, Irving is better in terms of health, and Curry and Thompson will have field days from the floor.  Up tempo game plans for both teams, I like the Over.  Both teams offenses in the last 5 games average 211 ppg combined, and while the Cavs defense in their last 5 averaged 88 ppg, that was against an offensively inept Atlanta offense.  Golden State is a different animal and despite going Under in 7 out of their last 8 home games, the totals line in those games was vastly higher than this line.  

Play 1 Unit on the Over.  

OVER 216 
Short and Sweet.  These two teams will pull out all the stops tonight.  Now with the Cavs resting, Golden St will unleash the hounds and try to get this put to bed at home tonight and Curry at the time of this write up was playing, but in any event with the Warriors offense and Thompson stepping up, I see both teams exceeding the 100 mark early on the 4th quarter here.  A ton of offense here and Houston got their mojo back on Monday.
Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

OVER 193.5 Cavs / Hawks

All out shootout tonight.  Look for LeBron to close out this series with a great effort and numerous other players stepping up and filling key roles in the absence of Love and quite possibly Irving again tonight.  Atlanta will leave no stone unturned in the process of avoiding a sweep tonight and if it was not for ice cold shooting Sunday Night they would have won that game.  Atlanta’s offense depends on 3 point shooting a great deal and yes Kouver is out, but I see an all or nothing attempt tonight to trade punches on the scoreboard and try and steak a win here, which I doubt they get but not willing to lay almost 8 points here.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

Golden State -4.5
Houston off a demoralizing loss at home and while a 30+ point loss is recoverable in the NBA, there are simply underlying match up issues that were exposed in game 3 and Bogut is kicking in double doubles for GS, and Curry is on fire and Houston has no answer other than Hardin who cannot carry the Rockets, and not sure McHale can coach a big game to save his life.  I expect a sweep here in this series.  
Play 1 Unit on Golden State

Houston +1

Home dog here and a close game involved in the first 2 in this series in which the Rockets could have won both of them.  Howard to play tonight for Houston and the stat of the day is this one:  Houston has not lost 3 games in a row ALL SEASON.  With their back against the wall here, look for them to play some good defense again, and get the job done at home.  Back against the wall game here folks. 

Play 1 Unit on Houston 

UNDER 196 Hawks / Cavs

Injuries to key players all over the place and the Cavs defense is playing well and quite frankly the JR Smith explosion is not one to count on every game.  Disturbing that Kyle Kouver for Atlanta has averaged just 5.2 ppg his last 5 games, and all of Atlanta’s sharpshooters are struggling.  Irving not near 100% and Carroll is questionable and Irving may not play tonight.  Side Play too close to call but do not see Atlanta losing 2 at home but the way their offense is playing they very well could.  I expect a lower scoring grind out game tonight.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

UNDER 220 Rockets / Warriors

Dwight Howard questionable which is HUGE in this series for Houston so I am staying away from the spread here but if he plays I think Houston will stay close.  Expect vastly better defense from Golden State as Coach Kerr has publically stated his focus is on defense this game, and game 1 went under at this very same number give or take a half point and I do not see both teams at 110 or more.

Play 1 Unit on the Under. 

Atlanta Pick to  -1

The Hawks owned the Cavs in the regular season, and I like them at home tonight for 2 reasons.  The guard play is better for Atlanta, and I like their ability penetrate off the dribble against a wounded Irving and Delladova, who quite frankly is slow.  Carrol did a hell of a job defending James this season and gave him fits, and with Cleveland not at 100% healthy and Atlanta having more scoring options I like them here at home to get the win in basically a coin flip line. 

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta  

UNDER 220.5 Houston / Golden State

Unreal totals run and if you look closely at this game, especially the Warriors, they have played some great defense.  Despite the Grizzles lack of firepower, the Warrior’s gave them little chance at open shots and also rebounded well.  Houston’s offense will work on the low post and down low in general to slow the pace, and the key to Houston’s win in the last series against the Clippers was concentrating on playing some defense in the last 3 games of that series.  I just do not see a shootout here although the total will exceed 200, the fact is 220 is a ton of points in an opener when both teams are feeling each other out.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Golden State -5

The Warriors can close this out tonight and quite frankly as good as Memphis has been on defense, Golden State has been every bit as good and with the firepower they have with Thompson and Curry, the Grizzles cannot counterpunch all night.  In an elimination game once the wind is taken out of your sails, teams tend to throw it in, like the Bulls last night for instance.  Big game here Golden State, they can rest this weekend while Houston and LA slug it out, Steve Kerr will unleash the hounds tonight in a blowout win.  Golden State has won the last 2 games by an average of 18.5 points gents!! 

Play 2 Units on Golden State 

Houston +8.5

Houston won by 21 and now getting almost 9 points?  Harden, Howard and Ariza can be deadly when dialed in, and do you think they will be dialed in to stave off elimination tonight?  Houston played defense the last game, not great defense, but some defense which is KEY in this game flor them.  Houston also controlled pace, and when they do again they can be deadly.  I think LA can this at home tonight however Houston will not go down without a fight here and this is flat out too many points. All trends point to LA and the Over here, I expect just the opposite.  Houston is bad on the road against LA, but the presure is on LA tonioght as much as Houston folks.  Should be a barnburner and tight one, I will take the points.

Play 1 Unit on Houston

UNDER 195.5 Memphis and Golden State

Memphis’s defense is shining and holding down the high flying Warriors.  The highest point total in this series is 188 scored.  All Games have been between 185 and 188 points, all 4 of them and all 4 of them have went under.  A half point line adjustment by oddsmakers is not enough from the last 2 games.  Lost in the mix is the fact the Warriors have allowed just 92 ppg their last 5 and I expect Memphis to struggle to add points on the board tonight.  A low scoring usually brings in Big Points to play so a lean to Memphis who should pull out all the stops and slow the pace of Play to hang in there.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

BONUS PLAY – Play Half Unit on Memphis +9.5 

OVER 218 Houston / LA

Every game has gone over in this series and I have cashed all of them either with Free Plays or Premium Plays.  Neither team plays defense and Houston is flat out deplorable and have allowed over 215 ppg in the playoffs and these two teams average allowing 217 ppg in their last 5.  Another shootout on Tap again tonight, nothing changes. Pure shootout, run and gun and Houston will pick up the pace on offense here at home as well.

Play 1 Unit on the Over. 

UNDER 196 - Griz / Warriors

The Griz continue to impress and stymie the Golden State offense with defense and quite frankly are playing a better brand of ball and the scoring again IN Memphis will be limited on both sides.   Under is 4-0 in this series the last 4 in Memphis and the series has went 5-1 ATS on the Under overall the last 6. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under

Cavs +2
Better team catching points after pissing all over themselves Friday Night and Rose beating them on a prayer 3 point bank shot.  Cleveland will not go down 3-1 in this series gents and I expect LeBron to take total control of this game and for Thompson to control the paint and look for the Cavs backcourt with Irving and Smith to be very active and press the pace.  I did cash and get lucky with the Bulls on Friday but this will be all Cleveland on Sunday.
Play 3 Units on Cleveland 

Atlanta -3.5
No John Wall.  Enough said.  Wall is a HUGE p[art of the Wizards and with fractured bones in his hand he is out and Atlanta will take advantage of iyt. The Hawks are winning despite Kouver and Teuage hitting any shots and I feel they will step up and without Wall in the lineup, the Wizards just got easier to defend.
Play 1 Unit on Atlanta 

Bulls -1.5

Better team catching points?  Vegas begging you to take the points here which will be square side of the game in my opinion.  Derrick Rose barely scraping 37% from the floor in this series and JR Smith back for the Cavs and Thompson in the middle is huge plus and paying dividends for the Cavs.  Cleveland played to their potential in Game 2 and Chicago needs this win big time tonight and should have a better effort at home.  The Bulls play well off of losses, and if you look at the game 2 box score, other than Cleveland getting out to a huge 1st quarter lead, Chicago with no help from the refs, outscored the Cavs in every other quarter in that game.  Cleveland plays horrible in Chicago just covering 2 out of their last 7 on the road there, and the Cavs for all their glory, have only covered 5 out of the last 18 meetings between these two teams. 

Play 1 Unit on Chicago

BONUS PLAY – OVER 216 for a HALF UNIT in the Clips / Rockets game.   In these two teams last 20 games combined, only 6 went Under.  Neither team even bothers to play defense. The last 5 games combined these two teams are scoring 220 ppg combined and allowing 219 ppg combined.  WOW 

Under 195 Bulls / Cavs

Expect a tight low scoring affair here, Rose not 100% and Cleveland looking to work the low post area tonight and get back in the series in what should be a hard fought game all the way around.  2 Key injuries for Cleveland affecting their chemistry and James is not lighting it up either.  3 out of the last 4 in this series have went Under, and the Cavs have went under their last 4 games, Bulls have went under the last 4, and the last 4 meetings in Cleveland have went Under.  Both teams playing good defense.

Play 1 Unit on the Under 

Wizards +6

Are you kidding me?  Zig Zag theory?  Take the team who sucked in Game 1 and expect a turnaround?  Call me a square, call me a sucker for a trap line all you want, Atlanta has shown me NOTHING in the post season, barely beat the Nets who are deplorable, and now the Wizards who may be the hottest team in the Playoffs are getting 6 points against a team barely able to shoot 39% in the post season?  John Wall is on fire, scoring 4 double / doubles in a row, dishing the ball out at 12 assists per game, Pierce is stepping up and leading this team thru experience, and quite frankly you win big games with backcourts either in the NCAA or the NBA in the post season and Washington’s has performed as well as any in the post season.  Washington is 8-1 SU on the road the past 2 years in the post season!  And getting 6!

Play 2 Units on the Wizards.  

Chicago +4.5 to 5 

JR Smith Out, Kevin Love out, and some serious mis-matches inside for the Bulls to exploit.  Cleveland had an easy time in Round 1 but it gets much tougher here and Rose and Gordon are going to an issue for the Cavs backcourt to defend.  The Bulls defense 9 ppg better and with added time off it will take the Cavs some time to get the juices flowing.  Rebounding, defense, bench, turnovers – all favor the Bulls.

Play 1 Unit on Chicago     

UNDER 200.5  Hawks / Nets

Not sold on either offense with so much on the line and Atlanta does not shoot well away from home.  I expect a tight game where the Knicks eat clock and push the ball inside.  Williams is hit or miss from the outside for them and I expect Atlanta to continue to struggle from the floor in big games on the road.  Enough said.  If you noticed the3 bench points in this series are basically a non factor, around 25 average each their last 5.

Play 1 Unit on the Under in a tight one.  

OVER 206.5 Spurs / Clips

Both teams going for broke, neither team has played any defense and both teams have scorers all over the place, and a potential OT game is not out of the questions.  Spurs will do everything they can to win at home, and the bench has been scoring well for San Antonio. Over is 10-4 ATS last 14 meetings.

Play 1 Unit on the Over 

Brooklyn +9

This is real simple, I will NOT lay 9 points with a team struggling on offense and shooting 39% from the floor against anyone, let alone Brooklyn who seems to be a bad matchup for Atlanta, Especially down in the paint with Lopez.  If the Nets push the ball down low on offense and stick with that and Williams plays well, they can match up well and win. Atlanta just flat out in a funk, and then drop 9 on the spread?  The largest point margin on a win in this series is 7 points to date and with the Nets given some serious life, I will take the points all day.

Play 1 Unit on the NETS

Play a half unit on the OVER 190 in the Memphis / Portland Game.  

Memphis +3
Wrong team favored.  Portland has tried everything, but Memphis OWNS this team.  7 straight covers, 9-1 ATS the last 10 and just too much overall talent against a beat up Portland team.  I can do stats all day long, but with Memphis scoring like they are, they are a very dangerous team and they will put away the Blazers tonight.  In their last 5 games Portland has allowed 105 ppg while scoring only 93.  That does not fare well in the post season, never has, never will.  Expect a better defensive effort from Memphis tonight as well.
Play 1 Unit on Memphis

Wizards / Raptors Over 197.5

All stops will be pulled out in this one as Toronto try's to stave off elimination but it is the offense of Washington, and Pierce kicking it in big time has helped.  The Wiz backcourt has been solid and look for Toronto to play up-tempo and go for broke.  The last 2 flew over the total and I like another shootout in Washington today. 

Play 1 Unit on the Over 

=

Atlanta -2.5
Short and Sweet here.  Atlanta is better in Points, Defense, Turnovers, Player talent, FG% and coaching as well as having more than 1 player to go to to make a big shot when it counts.  The Nets played some decent ball in game 2, and yet Atlanta comes in here 2-0 and have yet to play a real good game. The line adjustment is 7 points from game 2, that is too many.  The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in this series and yet have cover 5 out of the last 6 in Brooklyn and have won 7 straight in this series dating back to April of last year.
Play 2 Units on Atlanta  

OVER 193.5  Wizards / Raptors

The last game flew over the total, albeit an OT game, but as you have seen as games progress into the series the scoring increases.  Washington will have a 100 points at home gents, their backcourt is on fire and getting easy buckets too with rebounding, and you can expect Toronto to pull out all the stops on offense to keep pace as they are do or die tonight down 0-2.  The bench scoring combined for both teams in their last 5 games overall is 77 ppg which is very high.  All trends point to under here, I am not buying it.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER  

New Orleans +5.5

(Line is shooting – GOOD!) Looks easy to take Golden State but with Gordon and Davis hitting shots at home, and a home crowd I l like the Pelicans to make a stand, and they have been given some very generous points here and I will grab them  New Orleans has been very pesky the first 2 games but simply ran out of gas late, I think the home crowd fuels them and they make this one very interesting, they are 5-0 ATS their last 5 at home. 

Play 1 Unit on New Orleans  

Portland +6

Kind of a zig zag theory wager here, but Portland could shoot any worse than they did in Game 1, just 33%.  Memphis managed just 14 points in the fourth quarter in Game 1 on offense and I feel if Portland can engage their guard play better and hit better than they did from 3 point range taking 26 shots and hitting 8, they can make this close game.  Memphis took just 9 three point shots and made 3.  Memphis’s bench was key in game one, but I expect Portland's starters to get more minutes and produce points here, and hang within this number.

Play 1 Unit on Portland 

Washington +5

Took them in game 1, they won SU in OT and now oddsmakers giving us MORE POINTS.  Paul Peirce was a huge factor in Game 1, his leadership and Playoff experience helps the Wizards, and quite frankly Washing has the best player on the floor in John Wall and they are the better team in this series.  Not worried about the zig zag theory, and Toronto might well win, however 5 is too damn many.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

Wizards +4.5

I think Washington can win this series, in what figures to be a down to the wire every game scenario in this series.  I like John Wall and the backcourt of Washington better and their defense is underrated, at 10th place in the NBA.  I also like the rebounding ability of the Wizards as well.  Too much star power on the floor for Washington and Paul Peirce’s’ post season a huge plus in the locker room and on the floor.  Underdogs were 64% ATS in the first round last year in the NBA post season and Toronto took all 3 regular season games, one in OT and all were close, so triple revenge here for the Wiz too.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

Washington +7

No way the Wiz lay down in this one, and Indiana fighting for their playoff life.  Both teams have played excellent defense their last 5 games and both teams scoring over 100 ppg on offense their last 5 games.  The noose is tight for the Pacers here, I like the way the defenses have played and Washington fully capable with big points involved to cover this number.

Play 1 Unit on Washington 

Sacramento +10
I have capped this way for 22 years in all sports, when 2 bad teams play and there are big points involved, take the underdog.  Neither team here playing for nothing more than getting the season over with, but George Karl returns to Denver as the coach of the Kings and will want a good showing and Sacramento's offense is vastly improved and neither team plays defense and the Kings will score enough points to hang around in this one. Laying Double Digits with Denver is insane in my opinion, and Sacramento is playing with revenge after a 10 point home loss back in January.
Play 1 Unit on the Kings 

Grizzles +8.5
Too many points here here.  The Clips are hot no doubt, but Memphis has 1 game lead on the Clips and sit second in the playoffs in a tight race and with a game with Golden State on deck, I think the Grizzles clearly want this one.  LA has point guard issues and and the last 15 games the Grizzles defense has allowed 15 ppg less than LA.  While LA scores more I think the grind it out style of Memphis keeps them within this number tonight. Griz 9-2 ATS the last 11 meetings and 4-0 ATS the last 4 in this series! 
Play 1 Unit on Memphis 

Wisconsin (PK) 
How do come down after beating a 38-0 team and play a red hot Duke Team that has man handled every team they have played in the tourney and Winslow is totally coming into his game for the Blue Devils?   Well you can if you are better.   The resume is stronger in the tourney for Wisconsin, they are a veteran team with size and they basically beat an NBA team who is deep and talented and controlled that game.  They have won their last 4 games by points each and I feel their domination of the paint is too much for a young and talented Duke team on Monday.
Play 1 Unit on Wisconsin
Thanks for all your CBB Business this season.  I appreciate it - Good Luck. 

Brooklyn +9

While the Hawks have sewn up the #1 seed in the East, their main scorer Jeff Teague has failed to score double digits in either of his last 2 games coming off an ankle injury.  This is a lofty line and Atlanta has smoked the Nets by a combined 34 points in the first 2 meetings this season, I see a much tighter game as the Nets are battling for the 7-8 spot in the playoffs.  Actual preview perhaps of round 1 in the Playoffs, I think the Nets want it more and are playing good ball right now.  Nets on a 6 game win streak and Atlanta has lost 5 out of their last 8.  Too many points here.

Play 1 Unit on Brooklyn 

Duke -5
TURNOVERS are the key and points off turnovers and Michigan St has had more turnovers in March Madness than any other Final 4 team, and Duke will take advantage of it.  In their only meeting this year, where Duke won by 10 points, they scored 24 points off of MSU turnovers.  Michigan St a nice story and they should be higher than #7 seed, but the miracle ride is over.  Duke is better, more opportunistic and better in the paint.  I will lay it here for a big Duke win.  While both coaches are hall of famers, Coach K has the better team. 
Play 1 Unit on Duke
Bonus Play - Wisconsin +5 for a HALF UNIT - The only team I felt on this side of the bracket that can match up with Kentucky in size, if they stay out of foul trouble they will hang in here.  

Stanford -1.5
Short and Sweet here.  Miami continues to grab victory from defeat like they did against Temple and Richmond, overcoming double digit second half deficits to win.  Interesting that Miami has managed to shoot only 38% from the floor in the NIT and continue to win with defense but Stanford's offense and experience win out here.  Randle is the player on this floor tonight and won as a freshman in the NIT Championship game in 2012 with the Cards.  Scoring and rebounding and talent favor Stanford and Miami playing shoddy and coming from double digits down to win this one will not happen even though their defense has carried them to here.  
Play 1 Unit on Stanford

Temple –1.5

I like the Owls here as Miami is not the same without Rodriguez at point guard and he is out for this game.  The hurricanes needed an 18 point rally to beat Richmond in the last game and Temple is just to complete of a team and a team deserving of being in the Big Dance this year.  Miami has won their 3 games in the NIT by a total of 13 points and while they have won, temple has flat out looked better and played better to be here.  Will Cummings for Temple is the best player on the floor, and Temple’s guards are better than Miami’s backcourt and Temple also has a good bench as well and that is a huge difference maker in this game.  Also Temple better on the defensive glass and Miami has shot just 39% from the floor in their last 5 games.

Play 1 Unit on Temple

Gonzaga +2.5
Yeah, Coach K with a 4 loss team headed to the Final 4, just get by a team who played in a weak conference who is not battle tested and you are in.  Not  so fast.  The Zags are damn good and have good size, veteran team and Mark Few can flat out coach.  Double digit wins in each of their 3 games to get here, a high octane offense with 51% from the floor and 41% from 3 point range and dominating the boards.  I see Dukes inexperience coming through here and Okafor has lots to contend with in the paint. This is the best team in Zags storied history in my opinion and under the radar.  Neither team killing it at the free throw line but the 2.5 points may in fact play into this cover big time.  Dukes defense has played well but they have not played a team like Gonzaga.
Play 1 Unit on Gonzaga

Arizona  -1

Payback time for the Wildcats as they lost in this very same game last year to the Badgers.  Zona is loaded and has the better team overall in my opinion.  A common opponent in  the last3 weeks is Oregon, who Zona destroyed in the PAC 12 Tourney 80-52 while the Badgers managed a shoddy 7 point win over the Ducks in the big dance in round 2.  Wisconsin does not make allot of mistakes but Zona takes more chances and hits the offensive glass with authority.  This was an OT game last year with Wisconsin winning by 1 point.  Going to be a tight game but it is a tough feat to beat a team like Arizona twice in the elimination game for the Final 4 again in back to back years. 

Play 1 Unit on Arizona

BONUS PLAY - Play a HALF UNIT on the OVER 136 in the Kentucky - Notre Dame game.   

Duke -5

One thing to note is Utah’s forwards in their win over Georgetown had their best game of the year individually, and now they step up big in class against mighty Duke, winners of 1`4 out of their 15 games and in their last 7 games, in 5 of those games held opponents to 57 points or less, and we all know Okafor is going to have his points and rebounds in the paint here.  I do respect Utah and this is a spread of 5 points, but Duke can shut them down defensively and Utah’s backcourt is suspect and turns it over, Wright has made 2 buckets in the last 2 games and has more turnovers than assists!  Huge issue against Duke and Duke has a huge advantage on the defensive glass.  Obviously Duke has the better coach here. 

Play 1 unit on Duke

BONUS PLAY:  Michigan State -2, OU has played a beat up and tired Dayton team and Albany to get here.  MSU on fire and Izzo the better coach.  

Xavier +10.5

Arizona will not have an easy time here, but they should win.  Chris Mack is a good coach and the Musketeers are here in the sweet 16 for the third time in six years, so they are no stranger to the big stage.  Arizona looked great in their first 2 games, no doubt, but these games do not come easy and Xavier plays some defense and has some shooters.  Zona pounded Ohio State badly, beat them on the boards because if you look at FG% Zona managed just 36% from the floor in that blowout win.  Did I mention Xavier shot 81% from the floor in the second hald of the Georgia State game?  Lower scoring perhaps, but none the less 10.5 is too damn many, and Xavier hangs around. Look at he defenses in the last 5 – 63 for Xaiver and 59 allowed for Zona – lower scoring – points in play!

Play 1 Unit on Xavier 

Kentucky -13.5

West Virginia’s tactics will not work against Kentucky, and if they try to hustle and burn through their bench, Kentucky matches up well, and the Wildcats will own the boards n both sides.  Kentucky has no equal and surely not a team who could not win the Big 12 and got knocked out early in the tourney too.  Huggins a good coach, not good enough.  Kentucky gets too many easy baskets in the paint.  WV good at forcing turnovers but the defense of Kentucky will have them searching for answers all night, easy draw here for KU, they roll.

Play 1 Unit on Kentucky. 

Notre Dame +2

Look Wichita St is a nice story, but 2 things at play here.  Notre Dame is red hot and won 2 games to get here and quite frankly did not have their A game in either and managed to win, not to mention beating Duke and North Carolina in the ACC Tourney to win it.  I DOUBT WSU could beat either Duke or NC!  The Shockers are still coming down off a win over in state giant Kansas, they now are dubbed the King of Kansas, shirts everywhere, celebration everywhere.  That is hard to come down from.  Also their coach was offered like 3 million dollars a year to coach Alabama as that story surfaced Wednesday all over the place.  Notre Dame too good and too deep.  WSU a SOLID team, guard driven and 3 point driven, ND more complete.

Play 1 Unit on Notre Dame

Murray St +3

Get on it early, this line will drop big time as Murray State is the better team.  Cameron Payne, as I have stated all season long to anyone who will listen is one of the Top 5 scoring guards in all of basketball the Racers just destroyed a damn good Tulsa team on the road like a hot knife on butter and simply put, ODU cannot trade punches on the scoreboard and ODU is 55% from the free throw strip their last 5 games which is pathetic, basically cannot score with the clock stopped either.  Murray State is undervalued STILL…. and they are beasts on the road covering 8 out of their last 12 and they are catching points here.  ODU has 1 starter in double figures their last game in the NIT, that is not going to cut it.  Did I also mention Murray St has a advantage on the boards as well? 

Play 2 Units on Murray State 

Louisiana Tech +4.5

Texas AM without their leading scorer and that hurts.  The Bulldogs have 3 starters that average double digits and are an under the radar team in this tourney.  Add in the fact the Aggies were the 2nd worst free throw team in the SEC and I li8ke the dog here to possibly win outright.  We all saw how important knocking down free throws in the post season is the past 4 days!  LT has some great guards. Bear in mind LT lost in the conference championship to UAB in OT, and UAB knocked off Baylor in the Big Dance.

Play 1 unit on Louisiana Tech

BONUS PLAY – Murray State +4 for a half unit.  Too much offense for Tulsa, like the Racers here.   

Kansas -1.5

I have this power rating at a 5 point overlay on Kansas.  Wichita St has built this game up. wanted this game, and now they have it.  Big brother Kansas as well as WSU will have a full house in Omaha for support, but Kansas's size down low and improved guard play by Mason and having Ellis healthy again makes them very dangerous.  I saw a very focused KU team dismantle New Mexico State and they played great fundamental basketball the entire game and Bill Self has them dialed in.  Wichita St expended a ton of energy to beat a pesky and mediocre Indiana team, and their rebounding or lack of it will be exposed here.  The Big 12 VASTLY better than the Mo Valley, especially this year and that battle tested week in and week out schedule for KU pays dividends here. The Mo Valley was a 2 horse race this year, and WSU got beat by Illinois St in the semi's of the Conference Tourney which was shocking, but I faded them in that game and again against Indiana and will do it again here.  This year's Wichita team is NOT the same team as last year although WSU's guards are solid and this will be a tight game. I think the spread should be KU -5.5 and not 1.5, there is value with the better team laying less than a bucket.

Play 2 Units on Kansas

BONUS PLAY - HALF unit on Northern Iowa -2.5.  Panthers allowing just 49 ppg on defense on neutral floors and Louisville has a bad offense.  Northern Iowa is 30-1 SU when holing opponents to under 65 points!  

Temple -4

The overall #1 seed at home playing George Washington.  So we have a #1 seed playing a team that finished in 6th place in the A-10 and catching George Washington off an upset loss and a back to back roadie.  Add in the fact GW only scores 58 ppg on the road this season while allowing 62 against a home opponent whose defense plays well at home, allowing 58 ppg on the season against an offense that struggles on the road trying to pull off back to back upsets, let alone against the overall #1 seed in the NIT Tourney.  Temple rolls.

Play 1 Unit on Temple.

.

Georgetown +4.5

My write-up's are short due to time.  GT's size inside is going to pose all kinds of issues for Utah.  Not impressed with a win over Stephen F Austin, and not impressed with Utah.  4 guards playing GT just not going to get it down.  GT looked good at seasons end and in their first round game. Hoyas zone defense should shut down Utah's attack.  Rebounds should be owned by GT.

Play 1 Unit on Georgetown.

BONUS PLAY - Notre Dame -4...Play Half unit - Butler short handed and ND should recover from a poor outing and put Butler away. 

Oregon -2
Dana Altman Oregon's coach, coached at Creighton for more than a decade (16 years)  and will have local support big time in Omaha as he was wildly popular there.  Okie St simply lost to every good team they played this year away from home, bowed out of the Big 12 tourney against big brother OU and Oregon stinging after a big loss to Arizona in tourney action.  Ducks finished strong and are 8-2 ATS their last 10 games.  Ducks offense the difference and the Big 12 got berat up yesterday and I think both teams who lost Thursday are better than OSU!  
Play 1 Unit on Oregon 

Maryland -4.5
Terps under rated and have the moxy to hang with anyone good, and Valpo has 3 starters with injuries that are banged up and not 100%.  Terps size alone is a mis match.  Terps went 8-1 SU their last 9 games and won a school record 26 games and are poised for a run.  Horizon league not impressive this year. 
Play 1 Unit on Maryland

Indiana +6
Not sold completely on Wichita ST but I do think they are bettter than Indiana has has played tourney teams tough and hung in there and Wichita cannot expose a weak frontcourt as they are guard laden.  Closer than 6 here.
Play 1 Unit on Indiana 

NC State -2

A stellar backcourt for NC State, almost enough said.  A very tough conference in the ACC, especially as compared to the SEC who basically has 2  good teams, one of them Kentucky of course, and the other one is not LSU who is inconsistent.  Lacey, Barber and Turner are studs for NC State who can score, and LSU is all inside.  I like strong backcourts and NC State is the play because of it.  Hornsby is good for LSU but he cannot do it alone in their backcourt. 

Play 1 Unit on NC State

Stephen F Austin +7

My sleeper team here.  Line shooting up, that’s perfect.  Not sold on Utah, not sold on the PAC 12 outside of Zona and SFA can flat out get it done, great guards, experienced, (knocked off VCU in round 1 last year), so they will not be intimidated by the stage here, which is an issue for smaller teams in the dance sometimes.  You have a team that scored 79 ppg on the year, and 82 ppg on neutral sites and despite the Utes defense, points will come from SFA and enough of them to cover the number here, and an outright win is not a surprise, because if they get past Utah, they have enough in the tank here to make the sweet 16.

Play 1 Unit on SFA

Ohio State =4

Not sold on VCU, they did get hot in their tourney and win the A-10.  Ohio State has some real potential here in this bracket but VCU is a tough out but I expect a down to the wire game and a team from a tough Big 10 conference to pull this one out.  Strong backcourt for Ohio State and a good coach.  VCU has not been the same since Weber went down, they had a horrible February but have bounced back, but a draining conference tourney while Ohio State is rested and well prepared.

Play 1 Unit on Ohio State 

Vandy +2.5

Not sold on St Mary’s here, as we saw what Big West Powerhouse UC Davis did last night with a step up in class I think the same happens here, and Vandy battle tested, and won 7 out of their last 10 games, beating NCAA Tourney team Ol Miss recently, and they are averaging 50% from the floor and 46% from 3 point range in their last 5 games.  Too much size and talent for St Marys to contend with, even at home.  Big step up in Class for St. Marys, I will take the dog here despite St Marys home record.

Play 1 Unirt on Vandy 

Indiana +1

The Bulls are mess, Butler and Rose gone from the backcourt, their vaunted efense allowing 104 ppg their last 4 games.  The Pacers beat them by 14 back on March 6, as a 6 point favorite, and now they are getting 1.5 points?  WOW.  The Bulls off 2 losses, barely beat the lowly 76ers in OT before that and have lost 5 out of their last 6 games.  The Pacers have dropped back to back games but have won 7 out of 10, and off a loss there are 6-1 ATS the next game and have covered 4 out of the last 5 in this series and despite a double digit setback to the Raptors, are playing better ball and scoring better than the Bulls.

Play 1 Unit on the Pacers.

BYU -3.5 TO 4 (LINE WILL ROCKET UP)

All the way on Cougars here.  There are about as many reasons to take them here as there are to go against Ol Miss, who lost to bottom feeder and second lowest seed in the SEC tourney South Carolina to end their season.  BYU beat Gonzaga this year, their claim to fame but they are the better team here. 

Play 1 Unit on BYU

Murray State -5

Home game for the Racers, who were the subject of numerous discussions this year and on Selection Sunday who lost in the Ohio Valley Championship Game to a good Belmont team by 1 point in a thriller.  Murray State has one of the best guards in the nation in Cameron Payne, and the Racers have 1 loss at home all season and had at one point ripped off 25 straight wins.  Early losses to a few big schools has the national media down on them, but I do not see them disappointed, but I see them determined, and at home facing Tim Floyds’ UTEP Miners who lost to Middle Tenn. St, managing only 50 points and 50% from the free throw line in that game.

UTEP cannot trade punches on the scoreboard and while Murray State has something to prove here, it is their guard play and homecourt, which is KEY in the NIT Tourney, that is going to win this game, and UTEP just 5-11 ATS away from home this season.  Only once since January has Murray State laid this small of number as they had over inflated numbers all season thuis their ATS record stinks, and I think they blow out UTEP here.

Play 1 Unit on Murray State. 

Iona +7

Contrasting styles here, but Iona is decent on the road and has the vastly better offense in this game, and shoot lights out from the charity stripe, which is key in the post season, and they have the better guards in this game, also a KEY.  Rhode Island battle tested out of the A-10 and play good defense, but Iona should put up close to 65 to 70 and that will keep them in the number here.  Iona also has a bigger frontcourt and have a rebounding edge.

Play 1 Unit on Iona

Bowling Green -5

Oddsmakers apparently giving money away here as St. Francis of Penn. Is a home dog here and Bowling Green is a cover machine on the road at 12-2 ATS on the year and a great cover team overall.  As I looked deeper into this matchup Bowling Green (last 5 game stats) is 8% better in FG%, FT%, and 3 Point % and obviously against better competition.  BG also has a deep bench, good guards and a better team flat out better overall.  In games against big schools St. Francis was buried by 32 against Texas, by 15 against Cincy (they scored 37 in that game).  BG may in fact be disappointed not to be in the NIT tourney is the only reason they6 might not show up, but one cannot use that as a main flux of capping this game, the numbers do not lie, and St Francis had 5 players come in off the bench in their last game that managed 5 points total and their point guard had zero points. 

Play 3 Units on Bowling Green. 

U Conn +2.5
Taking the hot hand here  with U Conn in basically a home game as Boatright and Purvis have led U Conn in this tourney and of course were on a team that won the national title last year and they have already beaten SMU this year at home in convincing fashion scoring 81 points in that game.  SMU looked sluggish against East Carolina on Friday and looked sluggish against Temple before pulling away finally.  Hard to call U Conn a Cinderella in this tourney with their resume the past 2 years but I like their fire and homecourt advantage (in Hartford here).  5-2 SU and ATS on nuetral floors for the Huskies and I have not been sold on SMU all year, and the U Conn defense wis a difference maker here.
Play 1 Unit on U Conn
BONUS PLAY:  Michigan St +7 (HALF UNIT PLAY) 
Do Not forget a March Madness package from Tony.  Ranked #1 by Sports Watch last year in March Madness and 23 years of experience.  

Kansas -2.5
Iowa State has had 2 heart attacks, but this is a Kansas Town, and with Ellis back at full speed Kansas has the edge.  Live by the 3 and die by the 3 is ISU's ,mantra and Kansas can play the defensive side of the ball better.  Iowa State has won on the last shot of the game 2 days in a row and that takes a toll.  Kansas put away a good Baylor team with ease yesterday and I will side with Bill Self as a head coach in a big game.
Play 1 Unit on Kansas 

Wyoming +7
I liked SDSU and thought this line would be 2 or 3 MAX.  Not so fast.  Both play excellent defense and Wyoming while winning heart attack games the last 2 to get here are in sync, and this is just too many points.  I know SDSU beat them up twice this season, however Wyoming is capable oif winning outright and hanging tough here.  Lots of defense, points at a premium,. 
Play 1 Unit on Wyoming 

Davidson -3
VCU has shot 36% from the floor in their last 5 games and Davidson's OFFENSE is 16 ppg better than that of VCU, and 9 days ago Davidson beat VCU by a score of 82-55.  Davidson also owns and edge on the glass.  VCU has not played great ball down the stretch here, Davidson is better.
Play 1 Unit on Davidson 

Duke -7

Duke is a team that is totally focused on a number 1 seed in the big dance.  Coach K also wants to twin this tourney and beat Virginia – have no illusions Notre Dame is good, but their last meeting was a Duke Blowout and if you have not paid attention the last week, Duke is totally dialed in big time.  Duke on neutral floors are 5-0 SU and holding opponents to 58 ppg.

Play 1 Unit on Duke

Cincy -1.5

Going against U Conn here, bottom line is Cincy’s defense is the difference in this game.  Short on time, but a cheap number for a better team and they are hotter coming in here.

Play 1 Unit on Cincy

UCLA +11.5

Yes UCLA beat AZ in last years title game and AZ is killing people by double digits in their last 9 games (23 ppg) which is amazing but UCLA is a team who always gives AZ fits and think of this, Arizona has not won this tourney since 2002.  57-47 was the last score these two played to, that was at Arizona, winning by 10 at home.  UCLA has a great backcourt that can make a difference and cover this number.

Play 1 Unit on UCLA 

Ol Miss -3

Short and Sweet.  SC had issues with a very bad Mizzou team last night and although the spread count was a 9 point win, Mizzou has no shooters and play little defense, it was a battle of bottom feeders.  Ol Miss already has destroyed SC this season 65-49 and while both teams play very good defense it is the offense of Ol Miss that makes the difference here.  Moddy for Ol Miss is a hell of palyer ansd scorer.

Play 1 Unit on Ol Miss

Iowa State -1.5

OK – Rick Barnes, in a big game away from Austin.  ENOUGH SAID.  Iowa State is my odds on favorite to win this tourney, they won it last year and quite frankly while Texas beat up a bottom feeder last night they struggle against good teams, and they cannot match points with Iowa States sharpshooters who are talents and deep.  ISU won both meetings this year and scored in excess of 85 points in each game. 

Play 2 Units on Iowa State – TOP PLAY

PS – Check out my affordable March Madness Package - #1 ranked by Sports Watch in 2014 in March Madness with 72% documented winners over 46 plays – CASH OUT!  

TCU +2

Hoping this goes up to 2.5 but I feel TCU, who absolutely manhandled K State by 14 points a little over 3 weeks ago repeats.  K State DEPLORABLE away from home, 1 conference win on the road all year, and Bruce Weber flat out is fade coach all the way on the road in conference action.  K State has had some player discipline issues, academic issues and are not a good team.  Neither team likely to advance past this game, but TCU has much better guards who get to the free throw line a ton, and they are the better team catching points.  Yes K State 2 hours from home with local support, but simply put, TCU is undervalued here given the fact K States last 3 wins, all at home (3-7 SU their last 10 games) all came against ranked opponents has them in the favorite role.  Perception is not reality.

Play 1 Unit on TCU  

Penn St -2

Nebraska away from Lincoln is a different animal, and the Husker vaunted defense, well in the last 5 games they have played they have allowed 71 ppg, that is 11 ppg over their season average, and the Huskers basically have 2 players that are capable of scoring double digits.  Nebraska managed just 43 points in a 13 point loss to Penn State this year, and the Huskers have lost 8 in a row, and while they gave Maryland a fight in Lincoln on Sunday in a loss, on the road anywhere the Huskers are not bankable.  They have dropped 8 games ATS out of their last 10 games.  More offense for Penn State, and a better team out of the two here as they are the bottom seeds in this tourney.  Low scoring game for sure, Under 120 might be worth a look, but Penn St pulls it out late.

Play 1 Unit on Penn State

Green Bay +4

Valpo a good team but Green Bay has the offense here to get it done.  They split in the regular season and one Key in this game is the fact Valpo has issues scoring and they just lost their top guard for the tourney with injury and he was scoring 11 ppg , and add in the fact Valpo has averaged 58 ppg their last 5 games as compared to Green Bay’s 76 and both play good defense, this is a down to the wire game where points are at a premium.  Whole world on Valpo here at home. I am bucking the public and taking the dog.

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay. 

BC -3.5  (shooting up, bet early, opened at -1)

Georgia Tech have thrown in the towel, they cannot score and one of their best players Hunt is out for the rest of the season with a broken foot, he averaged almost 14 ppg, a HUGE hit for a team who struggles offensively.  These 2 split in the regular season, both tight games and one of them in OT at GT where they won.  BC won their last 3 games with huge wins by double digits’ over NC State and Wake, while GT lost 6 out of their last 7 and in their last game lost 81-49 to the Tarheels. 

Play 1 Unit on BC    

Under 215 Golden State / Phoenix

My Power rating on this game is 208, that is a 7 point overlay.  The Suns have averaged just 92 ppg on offense their last 5, managed 79 points against Cleveland in their last game and Golden State will score here but their average in their last 5 games of 205 seems about right here. 

Play 1 Unit on the Under.