#761 - Nevada +9    * 9 est tip

Yeah a road team, but the Wolfpack should dominate the boards here, and cheap buckets to keep them in this.  Boise State no slouch on offense but play little defense and Nevada averaging 77 ppg their last 5 and they are on a nice and solid 5-1 SU / ATS run and playing some solid ball.  I will gladly take the points here.

Play 1 Unit on Nevada 

#757 - Oregon –2.5 to 3  * 9 est

The Ducks have burnt me a couple of times this season, but Dana Altman knows how to coach in March.  Oregon already pounded UCLA by 14 once this year.  #1 seed for PAC 12 Tourney and regular season title on the line here, all motivation on the side of the Ducks and the better team and better coach is all Ducks here.  UCLA off a tough loss to Stanford and many say after that game the dejection of the team was huge.  Like the Ducks to roll here.

Play 1 Unit on Oregon

UNDER 220 Atlanta / Golden State

Atlanta has failed to break a 11 ppg average in their last 5 games and they managed just 87 points on offense in their last game.  Yes Golden State plays little defense but Curry is listed a questionable tonight with a bad ankle and I doubt he can go off for 30+ tonight if he does play, and the Hawks can play defense and contest the outside shot.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#550 - Air Force +4 to 4.5  - 9 est tip 

Home dog that should win outright.  A 12-4 team at home, avenging a loss to Utah St earlier this season.  They have beaten some of the conference’s best teams in here, Boise St, New Mexico, UNLV and Utah St is a bad road team laying a number over 3 here as they are 4-8 ATS on the road this year.

Play 1 Unit on Air Force

#719 - Kansas -2   9 est tip 
 
I would fade Kansas here, and look at this like the Seton Hall game yesterday, HOWEVER I went in person to Kansas game on Saturday and quite frankly if Texas Tech could hit a shot, especially early to save their life they would have won that game and Bill Self was not happy, despite tying for a Big 12 crown, and Kansas can still win the regular season crown outright and #1 seed if they win out and everyone knows Bill Self's ability to coach this time of year.  Texas off a huge upset win against Oklahoma who self destructed the last 7 minutes of the game Saturday against Texas.  Let down spot for Texas and Kansas will be hungry and ready to play and KU's bench depth is no joke.  Since KU played poorly Saturday there was little celebrating and KU owns Texas and will not take this lightly.
 
Play 1 Unit on Kansas - might be a square bet but they want that Big 12 crown all to themselves so PLENTY of motivation here. 

REST OF THE SEASON AND ALL MARCH MADNESS $200!  #8 MARCH MADNESS CAPPER LAST YEAR AND #1 THE YEAR BEFORE IN MARCH MASS.  INVEST - WIN!

#825 - Duke +1   - 2 EST Tip  
Two things at play here and I am making this short and sweet.  Who better to coach a team in late Feb gearing up for tourney time?  I will tell you - Coach K.  While thin on the bench Duke's Top 6 is vastly better than Pitt, even on the road.  I have a 4 point overlay on this game against the spread.  And when has Pitt ever if rarely won a big game?  Piutt 0-6 against ranked opponents.  Enough said - square bet or not I am taking the better team
Play 1 Unit on Duke

# 577 - Kent State -1.5   3:30 est tip 
Going with Kent St here who is a playing a team who is 3-8 ATS their last 11 Saturday games and scoring just 58 ppg on offense their last 5 games.  Miami of Ohio just 9-7 SU at home and a also a team with just 1 road win all year.  Too much offense for Miami of Ohio to handle and trade punches with a very short number here gents.  Hidden Gem. 
Play 1 Unit on Kent State

#556 - Evansville -4   2 est tip 
The Purple Aces at home here where they are 13-2 and score 80 ppg, playing Northern Iowa who manages just 66 ppg on the road.  Northern Iowa has been on a roll their last 10 but has played weak sisters including Drake and bradley and you have a unique situation where Evansville who has a Senior heavy class playing on Senior Day on a strong home floor and avenging a loss to Northern Iowa earlier this month.  NIU meets their match here as their defensive  numbers the last 5 games which are solid, play an elite offense on their home floor that are highly motivated. Evansville tied with Illinois St for #2 seed in Mo Valley Tourney and ISU has Wichita State today so a win would secure that seed as their is a high chance ISU will fall.  Huge Game here. 
Play 1 Unit on Evansville

#544 - Miami -3  2 est tip 
Louisville comes calling and Hurricanes are tied for 2nd place with the Cards in the ACC.  Cards on post season ban and they want this one and all the pressure on them and emotional but I like Miami at home here.  Louiville a bad road bet just 3-7 ATS ands 4-5 SU and Miami is a beast at home with 1 loss all year there and they are 10-3-1 ATS at home.  Miami plays great defense at home and I expect a thin Louisville team with depth that have foul issues as usual.
Play 1 Unit on Miami

OVER 209.5  -  LA / Memphis

Have you seen the Lakers on defense?  Neither have I or damn near any team they face.  As a matter of fact outside of about 4 or 5 teams this season, no one in the NBA is playing defense.  These two just had a monster shootout in the home / home series that put up 247 points, and LA managed 119 points with their troster.  Memphis used to play defense, that seems out the window and I expect a mirror image of the first meeting here and expect at least 220 in this one.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

#731 - SMU -4.5   7 est tip

Memphis just lost to the worst team in the conference and do not forget SMU is the best team in this conference and lead the conference in scoring and FG%, which is amazingly 50% on the year.  SMU playing every game like it is their last with no conference tourney and no post season because they are banned this year.  They can win the regular season crown in AAC but need this win to keep pace with Temple for that so plenty of motivation on many levels with a very good basketball team who can flat out light it up.  I have this at 8 points on a power rating, so I will lay this number.

Play 2 units on SMU

# 503 - Charlotte +8.5 - 7 est

Cleveland lost their ass and scored 88 points against Detroit in a loss after Waxing OK City and Irving is not 100%.  Charlotte is one of the few teams to beat Cleveland as of late back on the 3rd of this month and a big boost for the Hornets is getting Al Jefferson back after the all star break.  The Inside game for the Hornets will keep them in this one and Cleveland still so inconsistent I am not willing to lay this number against a winning team on a 5 game win streak.  Anytime you have a team that averages YTD a 102 ppg, laying big numbers against them is always dangerous.

Play 1 Unit on Charlotte

#541 - Mississippi State +12  7 est tip

Yeah Texas AM off a huge OT win against Kentucky Saturday – I had them as a Top Play.  I fade them now, against a MSU team off back to back upset wins over Bama and Vandy and Miss. St playing a great brand of hoops right now.  Many teams who are secured in the NCAA Tourney are letting off the throttle slightly and you can see that in the daily box scores, and resting yup for a conference tourney run as well as NCAA run.  Texas AM is locked in for NCAA Big Dance action and off a huge emotional and draining win I will take the generous points with a more motivated team.

Lay 1 Unit on Miss St

NOTE:  March Madness #1 Capper at 71% in 2014 and a Top 10 at over 64% last season in March Madness.  BLOWOUT $200 rest of the Season in CBB includes all MARCH MADNESS- NIT Tourney was near 70% last season.  INVEST - WIN - GET PAID  

OVER 202 Houston / Utah
I like the scoring and offense of Utah.  Although they have a worse record than underachieving Houston, they are favored 5 in this game.  Shooting 48% from the floor in the last 5 and playing at home in the altitude helps their cause, and fatigue will be a factor for Houston playing this way above sea level where they reside at home. That means more bad defense from the Rockets. Neither team playing any defense what so ever  Houston allowing 108 ppg their last 5 games and Utah 106, and both are scoring in access of 103 ppg in their last 5 games.  I expect a shootout here.
Play 1 Unit on the Over

#739 -Kansas -1.5
Not getting in front of Bill Self and the Jayhawks this time of year, especially with the Big 12 title on the line. Baylor defense is their biggest issue, allowing over 80 ppg their last 5.  Kansas destroyed Baylor back in early January by a score of 102-74 and KU is 8-1 ATS their last 9 trips to Waco.  KY loaded and Ellis is playing.  Bill Self knows how to win this time of the season.
Play 1 Unit on Kansas
BONUS Half Unit Play - #755 - UNLV +6.5 (Rebels scoring in bunches and will keep pace here and already beat Boise St this season.)

#524 - West Virginia -5 to 5.5    9 est tip 
Iowa State struggles against good teams that play good defense.  West Virginia already displayed that with a win in Ames over ISU, and the Mountaineers are averaging wins at home by 23 ppg and allow just 58 ppg on defense at home while scoring 81.  Iowa State is on a a brutal scheduling spot here and this is the toughest road trip in the Big 12 to make, a brutal road trip, and for ISU who is 0-3 after a home loss in revenge to the same team. It should be noted that ISU was outrebounded by TCU on Saturday and TCU is the worst rebounding team in the Big 12.  West Virginia got blowout out for the second time this season at home which is rare against mighty Oklahoma, but I watched that game and they had it tied up with less than 8 minutes left before they imploded. Home court worth 3 here and West Virginia has a TON to play for as they are in a tie for the Big 12 lead. Morgantown bites ISU tonight along with a full court pressing defense of Huggy Bears team.
Play 1 Unit on West Virginia  

#843 - WICHITA ST.-11.5

Indiana St is a paltry 1-8-1 ATS in conference games their last 10, and are currently on a losing streak of six in a row ATS. WSU won the first meeting in Wichita 82-62. WSU is 12-3 ATS in conference play and 5-1 ATS on the road their last 6 games.  After losing at home to Northern Iowa the Shockers have ripped off 2 wins by 30 and 29 points, and as the Mo Valley Tourney approaches you can expect WSU to continue to dominate.

Play 1 Unit on Wichita St

#578 - Texas A&M (pk) vs Kentucky - 6:30 est 

A&M just broke a vicious four game skid with a dominant 15-point blowout of Ole Miss Tuesday Night. They didn’t have to travel this week and had a full three days off in between games to get ready for their biggest game of the season, a home tilt with perennial blue blood legend Kentucky at home on Saturday to stay in striking distance of an SEC regular season title.

While most people believe that Texas A&M was not as good as their peak #5 ranking, they are also not as bad as their current ranking outside the top 25. The starting five of Danuel House, Jalen Jones, Tyler Davis, Alex Caruso, and Anthony Collins is as good as most teams in the country. They also have depth and size off the bench in the front court.

All three starting forwards (House, Jones, and Davis) average double digit scoring and at least five rebounds per game.

The Aggies only shoot 36% from 3-point range but Kentucky also struggle from deep range and Texas A&M is one of the few teams that may be able to match the Wildcats strength for strength.

Kentucky enters this game red hot on a four game win streak but they just played at home on Thursday night and now must travel across the country with the quick turnaround to play a talented team with extra rest and extra motivation in their biggest game of the season.

Texas A&M has no excuses here. They have the advantage of being at home all week preparing for this game and they come in with momentum as they just beat a 16 win Ole Miss team by 15 on Tuesday. Look for Texas A&M to play with a ton of energy and the crowd to be energized as the Aggies get back into the SEC mix with a huge win over Kentucky.

2 Units on Texas AM TOP PLAY (PICK EM) 

#599 - Kansas -5  6 EST

Already beat K State by 5.5 and yes K State can be a Giant Killer at home however Kansas playing hard for #1 seed in Big 12 Tourney in KC in 2 weeks as they are tied with West Virginia for the lead eright now and WV has a tough game today with OU.  Kansas is better and deep that K State and off a 27 point win over Okie State and they will not lay down in this Sunflower Showdown rival game.  

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

#552 -  Louisville -6.5 vs Duke  Noon EST 

I will be the first to admit that when  Louisville announced their postseason ban that the Cardinals may just fade away this season as their top two players are both grad transfers in Damion Lee and Trey Lewis. Yet the Cardinals still seem to be remaining positive, upbeat, and motivated to win the ACC regular season title which they control their own destiny to do so.

Wednesday they got down 12 points early to Syracuse and were on a two game losing streak and it looked like they may just pack it in. Yet the fought hard and actually ended up blowing out Syracuse in the 2nd half. After the game I remember seeing all the players smiling and happy around each other. At this point it appears that as long as they are in the hunt to win the ACC they are going to play hard.

Duke is coming off their biggest win of the season, a last second win at arch rival UNC on Wednesday. Yet the game was really tough and the one take away from that game was the reminder that this Duke team is only playing six guys right now due to injuries and thus with so little depth it is hard for them to have sustained success continuously each and every game.  Opened at 4 and shot up - for a reason.  Depth will kill Duke today. 

Louisville is deep, motivated and has the exact attacking style of play that could get Duke in foul trouble and cause some real issues for this short handed Duke team. It is also hard not to have a letdown after such an amazing win at UNC.  While this one may look close on paper it smells like an easy win for Louisville in this spot.

Louisville 1 Unit

Over 152.5 Oakland and Valpo

Two top teams going at it here.  In the last 8 games Oakland who has a Top 10 offense in scoring has exceeded 82 points on offense in all but 1 game.  They are scoring 91 ppg their last 5 games and allowing 80.  The Key to this cover is not Oakland’s offense, it is their horrific defense who faces a good team.  13 out of the last 19 roadies Oakland has went over, and Valpo is the crème of the crop in the conference and will have easy shots.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

Missouri St +22

The Shockers in free fall and not in good form and I am not laying 22 against a team who has almost a .500 record just because Wichita St "is due" for a huge win.  Sloppy play and a big number, in a climate where big dogs are covering like madmen, which they do this time of the season, nothing comes easy especially when you are pushing for a win of any kind.  WSU struggling BIG TIME on offense and laying a number like this?  

Play 1 Unit on Missouri St 

#722 - Arkansas -15.5  7 EST

Number low due to Arky losing two in a row but Auburn is in bad shape without their leading scorer.  I researched this to no end and Auburn’s last 5 road games the numbers are horrific.  28% from the floor, 57 ppg and 23% from beyond the arc and barely breaking 60% from the free throw line.  I honestly feel Arky will be super focused in this one at home and could hang 85+ tonight and doubt Auburn can break much more than 60 points, willing to lay it.  Auburns top 2 scorers from the beginning of the season no longer playing, they are worse than Missouri right now and the worst team in the SEC.  THIS HAS BLOWOUT WRITTEN ALL OVER IT.  I RARELY WILL LAY POINTS LIKE THIS UNLESS I AM EXTREMELY CONFIDENT OF AN ABSOLUTE ROUT, WHICH I EXPECT.

Play 2 Units on Arkansas – TOP PLAY

BONUS Half Unit to 1 Unit Play – Oklahoma -3 (9 EST Tip).  Look for them to bounce back after the KU loss and they hung 90+ the last time they waxed Texas Tech.  

#515 - Creighton +6.5   7 est Tip

Too many points against Butler here.  The Bluer Jays are on a hot streak and playing a much better brand of basketball right now and are an under the radar team here in the Big East.  Creighton scores 79 ppg and are highly rated on offense but their defense has been stellar as of late and I like them catching this many points to a team they have already beaten. Butler can put up points too, this will be a high scoring game, but Butler off an ass kicking at the hands of Xavier where they managed just 57 points and bear in Mind Creighton sits 3rd in the Big East and is undervalued here.

Play 1 Unit on Creighton 

Texas / West Virginia UNDER 137.5 – 7 EST Tip

The last 5 in this series has went under and Texas plays some defense at home and the last game had a 105 points scored total and the last 4 in this series have all went Under.  Tight game here all the way, WVU holding on to a slim lead in the Big 12 and avenging a loss here, so this will be a battle.  Texas is 7-1 ATS on the under their last 8 games and are 6-2 ATS on the UNDER in their last 8 home games.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

#521 - Toledo +3 to 3.5   7 EST Tip

On the road but the number is good here.  Toledo on a roll and cashing out tickets with a high octane offense.  Central Michigan has one of their star players questionable tonight, but none the less not sold on CMU at home able to trade to punches on the scoreboard here.  The Rockets on a 4 game hot streak scoring 80 and allowing 64 and are also hitting 85% from the charity strip in that stretch.  Hot team, who is playing with double revenge as they were swept by CMU last year.

Play 1 Unit on Toledo

#703 - Oakland -1.5 to 2 (this line will go up) – 5 EST Tip – Early Game

Funny things happen in the Horizon Conference but you cannot ignore 2 key points in this game.  Oakland ranked 2nd in the nation on offense, and 5th in free throw percentage.  Oakland also has already beaten Wright State by 26 points 4 weeks ago.  Kahil Felder is one of the better scorer’s in the NCAA at 25 ppg for the Oakland Grizzles, and they have shooters all over the place.  Wright State cannot keep pace all night and this number is too short. Yes Oakland plays little to no defense but they have averaged 91 ppg on offense their last 5, so do you really need to? 

Play 1 Unit on Oakland

BONUS Half Unit Play:  Oklahoma State +15 (Catching KU on 1 days rest after a massive upset of Oklahoma and now ranked #1)  Flat Spot and OSU beat KU 4 weeks ago by 19.  Just too many points even in revenge mode.

#853 - Bradley +18 to 18.5   4 EST Tip
Yes, taking one of the worst teams in the Valley on the road here, but since January 17th the Braves have not lost a game by this spread. The Braves are losing but playing much better ball the beginning and first half of the season.  Illinois St in a precarious spot here, off back to back wins against the Valleys best in Wichita St and Evansville.  How do you get up for Bradley and cover a big number?  This is a "spot bet" fading a team off back to back upset wins as a double digit dog.  The last game between these 2 was a 3 point win at Bradley 55-52 for ISU as an 11 point fav and this is just too many points in this scenario.
Play 1 Unit on Bradley

#503 - Texas +5.5   8:30 est Tip
Taking the Longhorns who gave Oklahoma all they wanted on Monday and have added rest time to prep for this game.  Iowa State also off an OT loss to Texas Tech on Hump Day,and most disturbing for ISU is 2 home losses already this season which is rare, and Texas is playing lights out defense and teams who play good defense give Iowa St trouble.  Too many points here against a team who is playing the best ball of the season and are well coached.  Shaka Smart will have Texas in this all night.
Play 1 Unit on Texas 

#559 - Oregon -7  4 est tip
One angle I look at despite Oregon being on the road, is good coaches and good teams lead by that coach off a loss.  Oregon got beat up wire to wire at Cal on Thursday and get to face a downtrodden Stanford team still missing one of their best players and Micheal Humphrey remains limited with a leg issue for Stanford.  Look for Oregon's forwards to dominate Stanford and look for Oregon to step it up against a team scoring 67 and allowing 79 their last 5 games.  Ducks get back on track.
Play 1 Unit on Oregon

#679 - Tennessee State +3  2 est tip
Revenge in small conference action.  Tenn. St on the road in the Ohio Valley and avenging a loss to Eastern Kentucky who shot over 63% from the floor in the first meeting and crushed TSU at home, but Tenn St is hot as hell right now, 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 games in conference action and they are road warrior going 5-0 ATS their last 5 roadies.  Eastern Kentucky is 0-5 ATS their last 5 home games in the Valley and 4-14 ATS their last 18 in OVC action.  Tennessee St off their best game of the season and looking for revenge, I will take the points here.
Play 1 Unit on Tennessee St

Dayton -1.5 to 2

Rhode Island is getting better but they are no match for the Flyers tonight who have 3 losses on the year and loaded for Bear.  Keep an eye on them in the tourneys, but Rhode Island has been beaten by damn near every good team they have played and Dayton is better than any of them.  Short and Sweet – Flyers by 8

Play 1 Unit on Dayton

UNDER 218.5 OK City / New Orleans

The Pelicans might be in trouble here as OK City is looking for their 40th win but I am not going to lay 11.  The last 10 games these two played only once did the combined total go over this line and the Pelicans have managed just 98 ppg their last 5 games.  I like the Under here.  Short and Sweet.  I have a 210 power number and that is a 8.5 point overlay.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER 

#795 - Murray State -6.5    8 est tip 

Big game for the Racers here, Tourney seeding and division standing implications and they play a weak SIU – Edwardsville team who in the last 4 meetings Murray State has beaten by 64 points combined and they own a 16 point win over them already this season.  SUI has averaged 59 ppg on offense their last 5 and on the season allow 9 ppg more on defense than they score and they are ranked near the bottom in the NCAA on offense.  Murray State is in a 3 way for the West lead in the Ohio Valley and SUI is dead last in the conference overall with 1 win.  Murray State should come in here focused and guns blazing tonight, willing to lay it on the road.

Play 1 Unit on Murray St

#557 - Iowa State -2.5   9 est tip 

Yeah it looks like a square bet but Iowa States offense will get it done.  Tech shooting just 37% from the floor in their last 5 games and have dropped 8 out of their last 10 games.  ISU still battling for the Big 12 Tourney seeding here and I like their chances here with a winnable road game.  In Techs last game they had one starter over 8 points for the game.

Play 1 Unit on Iowa State

BONUS PLAY – HALF UNIT- Washington +9.5  

#713 Pitt +9 @ Miami

Pittsburgh has alternated win then lose in their last eight games. One might say that 4-4 in that stretch is not very good. Others might say 4-4 in last eight games and 6-4 overall in the ultra competitive ACC is great.

The one stat that I really love with this Pittsburgh squad is that they have yet to lose back to back games all season. That goes directly to the strength of their coach Jamie Dixon and the veteran leadership from this team. The top four leading scorers on Pitt are all either Juniors or seniors and they bring a ton of experience and leadership to this team.

Pitt shares the ball well averaging  18.5 assists per game which is tied for 5th in the nation. They are also one of the deepest teams in the nation with 12 players averaging at least nine minutes per game. That depth will serve Pitt well in the middle of a grueling ACC schedule.

Pitt has had an extra day to prepare for this one as they played Saturday and Miami played Super Bowl Sunday and then had to travel back to Florida. Look for a fresh Pitt team to play with energy and give Miami all they want in this one and stay well within the number and possibly even spring the road upset in this great spot.

1 Unit on Pitt 

#716 Kansas -7 vs West Virginia

Kansas went through a slight rough patch in the middle of January but has started playing back to that elite level that had them the #1 ranked team in the nation for most of the season. These two teams played back on January 13 with West Virginia winning 74-63 on their home court. Kansas will be ready and excited to return the favor at home here in this spot.

Allen Fieldhouse is one of the toughest places to play in the entire country. If you don’t believe go back and watch the Oklahoma at Kansas triple overtime game from earlier this season. The crowd was so loud the announcers couldn’t hear each other speak to do the broadcast even with ear pieces in.

Kansas has outscored opponents 152-115 in their last two games and is playing at an elite level on both sides of the court. Senior PF Perry Ellis has scored 42 points in his last two games and has cored at least 20 points in three of the last five.

We mention Ellis here because the man that would be guarding Ellis much of the time Jonathan Holton will miss his second straight game due to suspension. Holton averages 23 minutes per game and is the Mountaineers second leading rebounder grabbing over 7.5 rebounds per game and possibly the teams top interior defender. With Holton out Ellis may have a big day inside for the Jayhawks.

Kansas has revenge on their mind and all the advantages of playing at their place and West Virginia being down a key cog. Look for Kansas to come out swinging and not let up until the final whistle and winning this one easily by double digits.

1 Unit on Kansas - Payback time. 

#718 Purdue-1  vs Michigan State  7 est

Purdue is 5-2 in their last seven games with the only losses coming to Iowa and Maryland on the road.  The Boilermakers have the best frontcourt in the conference with A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas. The duo combines to score 25 points, grab 12 rebounds, and block 3 ½ shots per game. Their dominance is shown by the fact that Purdue is 5th in the nation in rebounds per game grabbing 42.5 per contest.

With such dominant post players they also defend the rim as good as any team in the BIG TEN and are giving up just 63 points per game on the season. They have won each of their last four home games by double digits and should be too much for Michigan State to handle in the low block here in this one.

Hammons has back to back double-doubles heading into this game and has scored 50 points and grabbed 21 rebounds in Purdue’s last two games.

Michigan State has won four straight games but the last three wins were against Northwestern, Rutgers, and a struggling Michigan squad. Denzel Valentine is averaging 20.6 points per game the last five games for Michigan State but he has a tendency to settle for jumpers when the going gets tough inside and Michigan State only has one other player that averages double digit scoring and that’s Gary Forbes.

If Purdue can force Michigan State to settle for Jumpers all day and exploit their mismatch advantages in the paint then this should be an easy win for the Boilermakers at home in this spot.

 1 Unit on Purdue

#523 - Okie State -2  7 est tip

Travis Ford’s Okie State this year not as good as past years additions but TCU off an ass kicking at the hands of might Kansas Saturday and they are just 7-57 SU in Big 12 Play and a bad basketball team.  They have no post presence and cannot rebound.  Okie State already pounded them once this year a month ago and held the Frogs to 48 points in a 21 point ass whipping laying 5.5 points and now lay just 2.  I like the number

Play 1 Unit on Okie State

BONUS HALF UNIT #525  Louisville +3.5   7 est tip

No depth for Duke and winning 3 out of their last 4 including NC State twice and GT does not impress me.  Duke is facing a red hot team on a mission to prove their worth after announcing they are not playing post season ball.  The Cards are flat out a better team, even in a tough venue to play in tonight.  The Cards remember last year’s 11 point home loss to Duke where they managed 53 points, they are out for revenge. The Cards defense is vastly better and remember before Duke beat NC State at home they dropped their last 2 home games top lesser teams than the Cards, and Duke on Big Monday spotlight games have never performed well, 5-15 ATS on Monday games their last 20.  Grayson Allen for Duke is not 100% and I am aware of the Cards “questionable Status” for Lee but still like them, Duke is a fade team when laying numbers to good teams this season guys.

Louisville  - 1/2 Unit

#664 Ole Miss +3 vs Vanderbilt

Vandy is coming off their best win of the season Thursday, a 77-60 drubbing of #8 Texas A&M. Yet after playing one of the most physical and strong teams in the nation on Thursday night they must now travel down to Mississippi and play a tough Ole Miss squad on Super Bowl eve on the road and lay points.

In the stock market there is an old saying “buy low and sell high” and that applies here to this line. Ole Miss is just 4-5 in conference this season as they have struggled at times. Yet they are 14-8 overall and have played strong at times as well and their losses have come against strong teams in LSU, Kansas State, South Carolina, Florida, and Seton Hall.

While they have struggles against the top of the conference they have won back to back conference games and appear to be turning the season around.  Star Guard Stefan Moody has scored at least 24 points in the last three conference games he has played in.

Vandy’s stock is sky high after a nationally televised win over Texas A&M that finally saw them look like the team that was ranked in the top 25 to start the season. Yet with short rest , after a physical game and on a challenging weekend for coaches with the Super Bowl going it seems like a favorable spot at home for the Ole Miss rebels to spring the upset on their home court Saturday night.

1 Unit on Ol Miss

#639 North Carolina -3  @ Notre Dame

North Carolina is coming off just their third loss of the season after getting their 12-game win streak snapped Monday night at Louisville. They have had five straight days to think about that loss and will be looking to take out their frustrations on Notre Dame Saturday night.

The Tar Heels are averaging 85 points per game this season which is 8th best in the nation and are 19th in the nation averaging 41.4 rebounds per game and 7th in the nation in assists per game at almost 19 per contest.

Notre Dame has lost 2 of their last 3 games with the only win coming against Wake Forest at home. They lost to Syracuse and Miami on the road by a combined score of 160-136. The Irish are 6-18 all time vs North Carolina and catch the Tar Heels off extra rest with a chip on their shoulder coming off a rare loss. Notre Dame is 2-4 on the season against teams that either are or have been ranked this season and may not have the firepower to hang with a fired up Tar Heels team Saturday.

#585 South Carolina +8.5 @ Texas A&M  8 est

I know this seems like a horrible pro spot with Texas A&M coming off a terrible game in which they got whipped by Vandy 77-60. Yet there is also a trend of teams that play in tough games Thursday night, then travel, and play early on Saturday not playing at peak levels. That is where we find ourselves here.

Texas A&M played a nationally televised game against a tough Physical Vanderbilt team on Thursday night, then traveled all the way back to Texas and now has to play another physical team in South Carolina on Saturday with an early start. To make matters worse here for the Aggies is that South Carolina played and lost on the road Tuesday night to Georgia and should be fresh and ready for this one.

South Carolina is 18-3 on the season and has not lost consecutive games all year. In fact they have had at least two wins in between each of their losses so they have been a strong rebound team all season. After both of their previous losses they won their next game by nine and 10 points respectively.

There is no doubt that Texas A&M is the more talented team here but we get extra rest with a great game planning coach in Frank martin that has seen his team perform admirably off losses this season already. The Game cocks should have be able to stay well within this generous number and if Texas A&M shows lingering effects of Thursday night’s tough loss then South Carolina can spring the upset here.

1 Unit on South Carolina

#531 Boston College +21 @ Louisville

Be careful with the number here and make sure you get more than 20 as this one will be moving down. Normally one of two things happen when a team makes an announcement that they are imposing a post season ban. They either get this us against the world mentality and go out and try and show everyone how good they are (Ohio State in football three years ago, SMU this season) or they go into the tank.

In this case I think it is more likely to be the later for a couple simple reasons and they are really strong. First off is that the top two players on Louisville Trey Lewis and Damion Lee are both seniors that transferred out of losing programs to play at Louisville for this one single season for the sole purpose of playing in and possibly making a deep NCAA tournament run. Those hopes are now gone. The sole purpose those two players had for coming to Louisville is now gone. Their entire motivation is now gone.

The other strong reason here is that this did not happen early in or before the season started but right smack in the middle of conference play 22 games into the season. Louisville is coming off their best win of the season defeating #2 North Carolina to move to 18-4 and put themselves into prime spot for NCAA tournament seeding.

It is going to be extremely difficult to motivate two graduate transfer students that will not be there next season that the program is fine and will be back strong next year. They don’t care. They only came here to play in an NCAA tournament this year. There is no next year for them. 

Boston College is by far the worst team in the ACC at 0-9 in the conference and 7-15 overall but they have been above average on the defensive end anyway allowing just 69.1 points per game this season and this is a huge spread. If Louisville doesn’t show up here and the team is as demoralized as one may expect in this situation then the 23 point cushion should give us more than enough breathing room to cover this number.

1 Unit on BC

Short on time - 1 Unit on Celtics +7.  Brad Stevens will out coach Lue in this game.  The Cavs are inconsistent and this is a bad matchup for them.   The low post game for Boston will keep them in this all night long and this is too many points. Boston 10-3 their last 13 and they just do not get blown out.  Last time they got beat by a double digit number was mid-December.

Play 1 Unit on Boston 

NY Knicks +4.5

Fading Pistons in a tough spot here.  5th game in 7 days and down 20 last night made a valiant comeback that fell short and now they tee it up again.  I love fading teams in the 4th or 5th game in a week or less, and they are simply exhausted.  This is their 1`4th game in 23 days!  WOW.  The Knicks 0-2 their last 2 against quality opponents, I like them here big time.

Play 1 Unit on NY Knicks

#725 - Green Bay -3   7 est

On the road here at Northern Kentucky, a team Green Bay has beaten by 16 already.  Green Bay may have one of the highest if the highest scoring offenses in CBB at 85 ppg on the season, and they have ripped off 94 ppg their last 5 games and every starter in their last game was in double digits scoring.  Northern Kentucky, while they face a bad defense tonight, they simply cannot trade punches on the scoreboard, and have only covered 2 out of 8 games at home this year and allowed Green Bay 86 in the first meeting.

Play 1 Unit on Green Bay 

#559 - Ol Miss -3  9 est

Mizzou is a bad team gents, and SEC Bottom feeder right now.  The program is plagued by lack of talent and any depth at all on the bench, and quite frankly the coaching is less than stellar as the new head coach has yet to develop any team chemistry after almost a year and half.  The Tigers just lost by 14 at home as a 2 point fav against Miss. St, and in their last 3 home games have lost by a total of 50 points!  Just unreal.  The Tigers have covered just 3 games out of their last 12 games in the SEC.  Mizzou has managed a paltry 59 ppg on offense their last 5 games as compared to the Rebels who are scoring 73 ppg their last 5 games on offense. 

Play 1 Unit on Ol Miss

#541 - Arkansas +8

Fading Florida in s scheduling spot, and a spot bet.  Gators off a upset win Saturday over West Virginia and have Kentucky on deck.  Arkansas is a competitive well coached team and they can win this game outright.  Arky lost to Georgia on the road by 3 in OT and lost a good LSU team by 2 on the road.  This is just too many points.  Florida has some injury issues with 3 contributors questionable tonight as well. 

Play 1 Unit on Arkansas

#539 - Evansville +1  7 est

Short number here as Evansville is off a bad and brutal beating this weekend to the hands of Mo Valley powerhouse Wichita State who has beaten every team the last month in the Mo Valley by double digits.  I like them here to bounce back in a underdog role based on how they looked Saturday.  Northern Iowa is not as strong as recent years, not by a longshot and are just 1 game over .500, and in their last 5 games their offense has stunk it up, they have managed just 59 ppg their last 5 games gents and allowed 61, and shot just 39% from the floor.  Evansville a 70% Road Cover team this season.

Play 1 Unit on Evansville

# 735 - Clemson -1.5 to -2   8 est tip 

Short number here for the Tigers.  Yes they are off a loss however Wake is regressing, especially on offense, scoring just 63 ppg their last 5 games and we are taking a Clemson team who went 6-2 in January and are on a nice roll, with an impressive resume, including and 8-1 ATS record their last 9 games.  Wake is 2-8 ATS their last 10 at home.  Look for Clemson to get back on track tonight with a short number here.

Play 1 Unit on Clemson 

#537 - Mercer -1.5   7 est tip
Mercer defeated this team by 19 points back on the 2nd of January laying 5.5 points and the match ups here favor Mercer who is in the hunt for a conference championship this season, standing at 16-6 and off back to back wins.  Samford defense is not good, and they have dropped 3 games in a row to lesser opponents than Mercer and lost 5 out of their last 6.  
Play 1 Unit on Mercer
BONUS Half  Unit Play on (# 531 )Monmouth -1.5 - Siena's top shooting guard and 12 ppg scorer is out and Monmouth already hammered these guys by 16 Two Weeks ago

#864 - Evansville +4    4 est tip 

A live home dog here.  The Purple Aces score 80 ppg at ho me this season and allow 63, and they have dropped 6 straight to WSU and have not beat the Shockers since February of 2013!   This is their nest shot to upend the Shockers and they have a 3 point loss on the road to WSU back on the 6th of this month on the road.  WSU is winning games by double digits but have had a soft schedule this is their toughest test on the road yet this season.  Home court worth 2 points here and we are catching over a 3 pointer in a game where the home team has hit better than 51% from the floor in their last 5 games and hit better than 48% from 3 point range in their last 5 games and have a nice advantage on the boards on offense.

Play 1 Unit on Evansville 

Play a half unit on a red hot Oregon team tonight.  Oregon -2 for a HALF UNIT.  

Memphis -3   8 est

Sacramento has lost it on defense, and this is their 3rd straight road game, and 4th game in 6 days, always a go against spot.  Look for Randolph and Gasol from Memphis to contain Cousins, and bear in mind the Kings are giving up points like crazy and have not won in Memphis in over 6 years!  Bad spot for the Kins and Memphis off a massive blowout win on Thursday.  They should rack the Kings at home tonight.  

Play 1 Unit on Memphis 

#691 - Tennessee St -3  / 5:30 est

Playing some good ball right now in the Ohio Valley at 5-2 in conference play, they take on a bad Jacksonville St team today after back to back losses to the 2 top teams in the conference.  I look for a serious bounce back today.  This is a big team, athletic and deep on the bench and a team getting better.   This line is low because of back to back losses for TSU but they are a beast on the road at 25-8 ATS their last 33 road games.

Play 1 Unit on Tennessee State

#575 - Oklahoma -4.5   / 5 est

While 2 of the best players in the country are on the floor in this one Simmons for LSU and Hield for OU, it is Oklahoma who is loaded with talent and 3 point shooters all over the place, not to mention a better coach.  OU's only 2 losses are to top 20 teams.  LSU has only one player that shoots above 35% from 3 point range and I have to tell you the Big 12 is loaded with great teams, the SEC does not have the talent level of the Big 12, and OU is battle tested folks. 

Play 1 Unit on Oklahoma 

#567 - Indiana State -3.5  /  4 est

Indiana State is a cover machine, 8-2 their last 10 and they have covered every Saturday for 2 months straight, 8-0 ATS.  Even on the road here I like them, as Loyola of Chicago in their last 5 has managed just 58 ppg on offense and in 10 home games this year have covered just 3 of them.  More firepower on offense and ISU has won 2 in a row including a blowout out over a good Evansville team.

Play 2 Units on Indiana State - TOP PLAY

VCU -2

Road game here at Davidson but VCU will remain undefeated in A-10 action after this one.  Davidson is undefeated at home but this is where thr rubber meets the road.  VCU is scoring machine at 86 ppg their last 5 playing a team allowing 80 ppg on defense.  VCU is a cover machine against the line at 11-4 ATS ont he season and they are the class of the Atlantic 10 conference and have the scorers and the bench to to cover the short numbrr here.

Play 1 Unit on VCU 

#541 - Virginia Tech +8.5   8 est

Louisville in a tough spot.  They have mighty Virginia on deck, then North Carolina.  BVT stood toe to toe with North Carolina in their last game losing by 5 and did beat Virginia this month and can hang tough here.  I tool Louisville this past Saturday and got beat and quite frankly they have beaten up a bunch of middle of the pack teams and lost to anyone good.  VT might not win but at home getting 8 with a capable team here and Louisville on back to back roadies with a look ahead spot, this is what I call a classic spot bet against the Cards and VT can play some ball. 

Play 1 Unit on Virginia Tech 

#761 Wyoming +7.5 @ Fresno State   10 est 

Wyoming dropped a tough game vs Boise State Saturday without their leading scorer Josh Adams who was serving a one game suspension. Adams isn’t just the leading scorer of Wyoming, he isn’t just the leading scorer in the Mountain West conference, Adams is the fifth leading scorer in the nation averaging 24 points per game on the season.

Often times when a player of Adams ability with a long history of upstanding behavior gets in some hot water and has to sit for a game he comes back with a purpose. That is the expectation here as Adams may have missed the last game for Wyoming but scored 23 points in the prior game against Nevada and 38 in a road upset of New Mexico the game before that.

After a hot start to the season Fresno State has cooled off in the Mountain West. They have gone just 3-3 in their last six games and lost to both New Mexico and Boise State by double digits. In fact Fresno’s wins lately have not been impressive either as they beat perennial Mountain West doormat San Jose State by just seven at home and beat the other one win team Air Force by just one point in their last game.

Look for Adams to come out with some fire to prove a point here. Wyoming is a tough team to blow out regardless due to their style and pace of play but with the added fire of Adams return and the poor play of Fresno State lately, the upset alarms may be sounding Saturday. Even if Wyoming doesn’t get the outright win they should be able to keep this one within this generous number.

Play 1 Unit on Wyoming

#732 South Carolina -8 ½ vs Mississippi State

The Gamecocks lost their last game at Tennessee which was just the second loss of the season for South Carolina. Both of their losses have come on the road as they are undefeated playing at home or on a neutral floor.

South Carolina is 4-2 in the SEC but has already played four conference road games this season. The Gamecocks will be happy to get back home for this one where they have dominated opponents all season long.

If not for the Missouri Tigers, Mississippi State would be the unquestioned basement ruler of the SEC this season. They are 8-10 on the3 season and 1-5 in conference with just one win against a power conference team all season.

Mississippi State is 294th in the nation in rebounding and 239th in points allowed this season. Neither of those stats bode well against a tough interior team like South Carolina who consequentially is 15th in the nation in rebounding grabbing almost 42 boards per game and is allowing just 67.5 points per game this season. A South Carolina team that has spent too many nights in conference on the road gives a home court whipping to the struggling Bulldogs.

Play 1 Unit on SC

#718 Georgetown-3 ½ vs Creighton  6:30 est

This is a critical revenge spot for Georgetown and a huge game for both teams in terms of NCAA tournament hopes. Creighton won the first meeting at home 79-66 as they caught Georgetown flat off the big Marquette win.

The Hoyas enter this one off a loss to UCONN 68-62 on the road. Prior to that loss they pulled a huge upset by beating top 10 Xavier on the road. The Hoyas have alternated wins and losses all season. Coming off a loss it is not unreasonable to expect a huge effort from the Hoyas here at home. Georgetown is 5-2 in the Big East this season and are still within range of 7-1 Villanova but need a big win here to keep their Big East title hopes alive.

Georgetown senior guard D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera is averaging 19.4 points per game his last five and when he gets hot the Hoyas normally win games. Look for a fired up Georgetown team with revenge on their minds to take care of business at home and cover this number.

Play 1 Unit on Georgetown 

Miami -3

Duke just is not all that, a terrible cover team and did you see them sputter all day until late on Saturday against a very bland NC State team?  Miami is a good team, at home with one of the better backcourts in all the nation.  Duke has dropped 4 out of 11 since Jefferson is out and lack the depth with only a 6 man total rotation for the most part. Only a 3 point spread here and yet the moneyline is -160 on Miami?  What does that tell you.  A lesser ranked team laying points against the biggest public favorite to bet is a sure sign Vegas knows the winner in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Miami

BONUS PLAY:  Iowa State -2 – Kansas not a good road team and Iowa St at Hilton Coliseum is an absolute beast.  Half Unit  

# 857 - Southern Illinois -1   4 EST tip 

Mo State looks hot with a 4-1 run, but all 4 wins were against bottom feeders and I am not sold on them even at home in this game as Southern Illinois is 7-0 SU on the road, and are a 17-3 team who is 6-1 in Mo Valley Action this season.  Mizzou States Boone, one of their best players is listed as doubtful with a bad ankle and that is a huge KEY in this game!  He won't be 100% if he plays and they need him badly.  Also of note is SIU's head coach used to be Mo States coach and has never beat them as SIU head coach yet.  Couple of big ones on deck for the Saluki's so this is a huge road game for them because the schedule gets tougher their next 2.  

Play 1 Unit on an undefeated Mo Valley road team - Southern Illinois 

#595 - Arizona -3   - 8:30 est
Going to fade a 12-0 at home Cal Bears team without their best player Tyrone Wallace.  Cal has went big versus small since his injury but will lack the offense needed against a Wildcat team who can flat out score and are big and deep.  Cal's toughest test at home, Zona off a huge win and rolling since they lost 4 games ago at USC. 
 Play 1 Unit on Arizona 

Louisiana Tech -6
LT just beat up a bad Southern Miss team by 30 points 21 days ago laying 17 points and now they lay 6 on the road?  So. Miss is only scoring 59 ppg on the season, one of the worst on offense in the NCAA and conversely LT can flat out score, averaging 79 ppg and they lit up the Eagles for 87 last time they played.
Play 1 Unit on Louisiana Tech

Arizona -3
Going to fade a 12-0 at home Cal Bears team without their best player Tyrone Wallace.  Cal has went big versus small since his injury but will lack the offense needed against a Wildcat team who can flat out score and are big and deep.  Cal's toughest test at home, Zona off a huge win and rolling since they lost 4 games ago at USC. 
 Play 1 Unit on Arizona 
Louisville -6
Allowing just 358 ppg and scoring 80 will get you to a point where you are 15-3 and off an impressive 19 point win for Florida state and they also beat Pitt by double digits.  The Cards are 17 ppg better on defense than Georgia tech and I like them on the road here.
Play 1 Unit on Louisville 

# 852 - Orlando -3.5   7:05 est tip 

Charlotte has not won a road game since December 11th and they have Batum, Zeller and Lamb out tonight!  They are 2-8 ATS on the road their last 10 games and 0-10 SU!   Orlando off a loss at Philly which is embarrassing and I look for them to rebound tonight at home where they have already beaten Charlotte once this year by 15.  Injured Hornets team in trouble here against a perceived patsy and a weak line.  Bear in mind Batum is the Hornets second leading scorer.

Play 1 Unit on Orlando 

#510 NY Knicks -2.5   7:35 est 

Cheap line against Utah here whose only 2 wins dating back to the 9th of this month have been against the hapless Lakers.  NY playing with triple revenge and also avenging a 21 point loss on the road at Utah back on Dec 9.  I like the way the NY is playing as of late and although they needed OT to beat Philly in their last game, they have the better team at home, laying less than 3 points against a team who has lost 14 out of 20 road games this year.

Play 1 Unit on the Knicks 

#523 - Central Florida -3 to 3.5  6:15 est

South Florida cannot cover a spread to save their life and cannot beat a team with a winning record.  The Knights who are off a 20 point blowout of rival East Carolina on Saturday are getting better while the Bulls are not.  The Knights are on a 8-3 run and score 13 ppg more on offense than the Bulls of South Florida, who are ranked in the bottom 15 teams in the nation in scoring.

Play 1 Unit on Central Florida

BONUS PLAY – Florida State +10 – Half Unit 

# 752 Evansville -13 to 13.5.    9 est

Willing to lay this number tonight.  The Purple Aces are scoring 83 ppg at home and Loyola Chicago scoring 54 ppg on the road and just 60 ppg overall.  Evansville no joke and one of the top 2 teams in the Mo Valley.  Evansville 10-0 at home and rolling and extra rest after playing on Friday versus Saturday. 

Play 1 Unit on Evansville

#745  Northwestern +12.5 to 13     8 est

The pace of play slowed down with the Wildcats and their ability to put up points as a pesky team should make this game interesting.  Total 136 and with a low total points at a premium.   Northwestern played a horrific game against Penn St their last game, could not hit a shot – they bounce back on offense here and cover the number.

Play 1 Unit on Northwestern

# 741 Clemson +10.5    8 EST

Clemson red hot and winners over Duke this season already and while Virginia is a top tier team, Clemson being disrespected by oddsmakers with this line.  Yes the Tigers are not all that good on the road, but I am not laying 10 points with a team who has went 1-3 in their last 4 games.  Clemson has knocked off some heavyweights guys and are full of confidence.  They lose but cover here.

Play 1 Unit on Clemson 

Texas Tech –2.5

TCU a bad hoops team and off an all-out effort  at Kansas this past Saturday is in a tough spot.  Texas Tech is a good ball club and Tubby Smith is making strides and they have played the 8th hardest schedule in the nation.  These two teams are tied for last in the Big 12, but again I should note the schedule Texas tech as played.  All in all with Trent is still uncertain for TCU on suspension their guard play leaves something to be desired and with TT not winning a true road game all year, I will take the better coach on a short number and off an inspiring performance against Baylor Saturday to get it done here.

Play 1 Unit on Texas Tech 

#714 Tennessee St Pick to +1 - 8:30 est tip
Tennessee State has not beaten Murray State since 2012!  A home team here laying less than a field goal against a bad road team.  Murray State lost everyone basically from a great team last year, and have not won a true road game all year and only are putting up 62 ppg on the road and allowing 73.  TSU has a vastly better offense and will be highly motivated to win this game tonight where they are 6-1 on their home floor this year and 13-4 overall.  
Play 1 Unit on Tennessee St 

#653 Missouri St -4.5 - 8 est tip
Look Bradley is a fade team all the way - they are almost dead last on offense in the NCAA and in their last 5 games have averaged 47 pphg - just unreal.  MSU no offensive juggernaut themselves but they are capable here and do not forget Mizzou St upset Northern Iowa last week and also beat Okie State.  I know 2 bad teams here and laying it on the road is dangerous in that scenario but Bradley simply cannot score.

Play 1 Unit on Missouri St

#617 Oklahoma State +7.5 - 6 est tip
Okie State owns Texas, always has, won both games last year and 6 out of the last 7.  Coach Smart of Texas a good coach but has the wrong players for his style.  Although Okie State is not the best Cowboy team Travis Ford has had, they are long and athletic and have a great shooter in Evans and lead the conference on defense.  Okie St getting a ton of points here as they have dropped 3 straight in ugly fashion, and the stats favor Texas, but Okie St will make a game of this and keep it within the number.
Play 1 Unit on Oklahoma State

# 871 Evansville -5   9 est 

2 of the Top Players in the Mo Valley here on the floor for the Purple Aces in Ballentine and Mockevicius.  Evansville Offense efficiency rating second highest in this conference and love their chances here as a I have a 6 point overlay against the spread on power ratings , even ion the road. 

Play 1 Unit on Evansville 

#745 Wisconsin Milwaukee +12 ½ vs Valparaiso - 8 EST

Many people feel as though the Horizon League title is a foregone conclusion this season and that Valparaiso will simply stroll to the regular season title and possibly even an at large bid in the NCAA tournament. Yet Milwaukee may be the one team in the Horizon league that has something to say about that.

Milwaukee was not eligible for the postseason last year as they were dealing with APR issues but they entered this season with an experienced and deep squad that is pushing for some postseason this year, possibly even beyond their own conference tournament.

Milwaukee is 12-5 on the season and will surely be fired up for their first crack at Horizon league big dog Valpo. Milwaukee is 8-2 in their last 10 and have won three straight conference games. Milwaukee has been an extremely strong road team this year where they have already beaten the likes of Wisconsin and Minnesota on the road in non conference games.

Milwaukee is 15th in the nation in assists per game averaging 17.9 assists per game while scoring 78.8 points per contest. The defense has also picked up lately and they are averaging 64.7 points per game in their last three contests.

Valparaiso is clearly the favorite in the Horizon and for good reasons as they have the 4th ranked defense nationally giving up only 59.3 points per game. That stat may be slightly misleading as they played a relatively soft non conference schedule. The one ranked team they played in then #25 Oregon scored 73 points and beat Valpo. They have also had poor shooting nights including a horrible shooting night in an inexplicable 69-66 loss to a bad Ball State team and an 85-81 loss to Belmont where the defense didn’t show up.

Valpo’s best win of the season is likely against Rhode Island who currently sits at #84 in the RPI. Milwaukee is deep with five players that all average double digit scoring and have nine players that average at least 15 minutes per game. Look for this one to be close throughout and while calling for the straight up upset on the road may be a little bold they should easily stay within this generous number.

1 Unit on Wisconsin Milwaukee 

#716 Michigan State -8 vs Iowa  - 7EST

Boy I am starting to get nervous now as this is the second straight favorite that I select which is ultra rare for me. I also hate to get in front of a red hot team like Iowa but this one hits multiple key handicapping protocols that have been very successful in the past.

First off is the revenge factor with a superior team. As we have seen time and time again when an undefeated or very good team loses to an inferior team and then plays them again in a relatively short span normally it doesn’t bode well for the underdog.

Rarely does the inferior team win again especially if there were abnormal circumstances in the game. Let’s use the Golden State Warriors run this season as an easy and recent example. They opened 24-0 before losing to Milwaukee Bucks improbably. Yet it was the Warriors seventh straight road game and they were obviously fatigued and managed to score just 95 points in the 108-95 loss to the Bucks. The two teams played six days later in Golden State and the Warriors put up 121 points a 26 point differential.

Michigan State started this season 13 -0 before losing 83-70 to Iowa on the road. Yet this also brings us to the second key component of this game which is the fact that the first time these two teams played was the first game Michigan State was without star F Denzel Valentine who was injured and missed the game.

Now Valentine has been back with a  game under his belt and revenge on his mind. The Spartans have won three straight games including a 92-65 blowout of Penn State in Valentine’s first game back from injury in which he showed little rust in scoring 10 points and grabbing four rebounds in 23 minutes. He will be at full strength when these two play the rematch Thursday.

Michigan State is averaging over 80 points per game this season and is 2nd in the nation averaging 21.1 assists per game. They are also 5th in the nation in rebounding. This one could get ugly as Michigan State not only looks for revenge but to get back into contention for the BIG TEN conference title which early in conference play may go through undefeated Iowa who is 3-0 in conference play. Michigan State wins by double digits in a very favorable spot.

#732 Wright State -7 vs Cleveland State

Wright State is just 8-8 on the season but six of their eight losses came on the road and only one loss this season has actually been a true home game. They played a tough non conference schedule that included Kentucky and Xavier and have rebounded well with a 2-1 record in the Horizon league with the only conference loss coming on the road at perennial Horizon League contender Wisconsin Green Bay.

Wright State is led by senior F JT Yoho, who has dealt with injuries throughout his career but when healthy has routinely been one of the best players in the conference. Yoho has been playing great basketball as of late with 30 points and 16 rebounds in his last two games.

Cleveland State is and has been one of the worst teams in the Horizon League all season. They are just 5-12 on the season and are 0-3 in conference. They are just 4-12 on the season against Division I opponents. Cleveland State is averaging just 62.8 points per game this season which is tied for 336th in the nation out of just over 350 teams.

Cleveland State ranks 301st in the nation in rebounds and 339th in assists so not much is going well for this team that has lost four straight games by a combined score of 325-277.

Look for Wright State to come out firing in this one at home as they knoe getting to 3-1 in the conference is important and at some point demoralization may start to set in for a team that has had so many shortcomings as Cleveland State has had this season. This one has blowout written all over it.

# 553 Marquette +18 @ Villanova - 8:30 EST 

Marquette continues to be one of the most underrated teams in the nation and has been a profit machine for me all season. I had them +9 and moneyline vs Providence last week. Marquette is 12-4 on the season despite playing an extremely tough schedule. They have already beaten Arizona State, Providence, LSU, and Wisconsin this season. They only have four losses and most come against top tier teams. 

Marquette not only has more than enough firepower to cover this inflated number but they also have an advantageous matchup scenario tonight with their star C Henry Ellenson as the Villanova team is soft in the middle and doesn’t have any one player that can guard the 6-10 Ellenson, who is almost averaging a double-double this season scoring 16 points per game and grabbing 9.9 rebounds per contest. The big man also dishes out 2.3 assists and blocks 1.5 shots per game. 

Villanova will likely prove to have too much depth in the end for Marquette to pull the straight up upset but they have more than enough firepower to keep this one close and easily cover this number is Ellenson can avoid foul trouble and stay on the floor. Villanova also in the look ahead spot here as they travel to their longtime arch rival Georgetown on Saturday with 1st place in the BIG East on the line so the Wildcats may very well be looking towards that huge Saturday showdown and past tonight’s underrated opponent. 

Atlanta -3   7 EST Tip 
Cheap line as we fade Charlotte who has dropped 12 out of 15 games.  Hawks coming in here on 4 days rest after a blowout win over the Bulls Saturday.  The Hornets are simply a fade team right now and the Hawks already won in here back in November.  In their last 5 games the Hornets are giving up 11 more points than they are scoring- that is not good against the high flying Hawks
Play 1 Unit on Atlanta 

#768 UNLV -5.5 vs New Mexico

There is a long standing track record of success with teams the first game after a coaching change. Players are eager to prove it was the coaching and not the players that led to the disappointment the team was enduring. That is exactly the case here as UNLV coach Dave Rice has resigned as head coach of UNLV after five straight disappointing seasons despite getting the best recruiting classes since the Tarkanian era.

UNLV has a McDonalds All American in freshman center Stephen Zimmerman and an all conference player G Patrick McCaw who is averaging 13 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. There is plenty of talent and depth on this UNLV roster and expect a spirited effort from the rebels here. This team has already proved how good they can be this season when playing their best with wins over Indiana and Oregon as well as a close loss to Arizona.

New Mexico entered conference play losers of four straight games including an embarrassing 82-59 loss to an average Washington State squad as well as a 30-point loss to BYU and losses to Rice and Auburn. They have rebounded with a 3-0 start to Mountain West play but two of those three wins came at home and they have yet to play any of the top tier Mountain West teams in San Diego State or Boise State.

Look for a fired up UNLV squad to play hard and get an easy win here as they are too deep and too talented for this New Mexico team.

Play 1 Unit on UNLV

#726 Central Michigan +2.5 vs Kent State - 7 EST

It would be easy to look at the records of these two teams and think that this line seems way too low. Yet when we take a deeper dive and look at these two teams we find that they are much closer to even than they appear on the surface.

Central Michigan enters this game with an unassuming 8-7 record. Yet  four of the seven losses have come by six points or less. They are an experienced team that won 23 games last season and received and played in the NIT. They are still scoring the basketball at a fare rate averaging 78 points per game which puts them in the top 90 in the nation out of over 350 teams.

The problem has been on the defensive end where they are allowing almost 75 points per game and getting beaten on the boards as well. Yet they have started to get back to basics on the defensive end and have given up 67 and 66 points in their last two wins.

The biggest problem for CMU was that they played their first seven games without star G Chris Fowler who had an injury. Fowler returned on December 15 and has just started to get his basketball legs back under him. Fowler has scored in double digits five straight games and has 20 assists in his last three games. When Fowler is healthy the CMU offense runs through him.

Akron is the class of the MAC EAST as they were projected to win the East and Central Michigan was projected to win the West. Akron enters this one with an impressive 13-2 record but has only one win against a top 100 team and that was against Iona who was just on the inside of the top 100 at the time. The one game they played against a ranked team they lost 75-56 to Villanova. They played an extremely weak non conference schedule.

CMU is starting to resemble the team that was projected to win the MAC West pre season now that Fowler is back after missing the first seven games of the season. CMU is led by five seniors and they will be fired up for their last chance to beat Akron in their home building and now their season could finally turn around with a big win here. Fowler is fully healthy and playing at an elite level again which allowed junior Braylon Rayson to move over to the two guard spot where he is shooting over 40% from 3-point range and scoring 17 points per game on the season.

Play 1 Unit on Cen. Michigan

#741 Kansas -1 @ West Virginia - 7 est

The Mountaineers are 14-1 and Tuesday they will host #1 Kansas in what will surely be one of the most anticipated games of the week, especially after last week’s Kansas/Oklahoma slugfest. The difference here is that West Virginia is not nearly as good as Oklahoma is. The Mountaineers have yet to beat a ranked team all season and the only ranked team they played (Virginia) beat them by 16 points.

West Virginia relies heavily on it’s pressure defense to create turnovers for as team that does not shoot great and gets lots of easy baskets off turnovers. As we saw in the Virginia loss and a win vs Richmond in Vegas when you don’t turn the ball over and pack it in the paint and make West Virginia shoot the ball from outside they are very beatable.

Kansas will not succumb to the pressure defense as they have veteran ball handlers bringing up the ball against that pressure in Frank Mason III and Wayne Seldon.  Also West Virginia commits the most fouls in the BIG 12 and that will not work out well for them in this game if they send Kansas to the free throw line as the Jayhawks shoot 72% from the free throw line as a team.

Kansas is the exact type of team that gives West Virginia fits as they don’t turn the ball over, easily advance the ball past pressure, and shoot free throws well from the line. Look for Kansas to be a little better in every aspect of the game. They are too deep to get tired by the constant pressure and will wear down West Virginia and win this one going away.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

#660 - Texas Tech +7.5  - 9 EST

Spot bet against Kansas off a 3 OT win against Oklahoma on MOnday and th8is is Tubby Smiths best team he has had since taking over Texas Tech.  Red Raiders 9-0 at home and play great defense.  Lubbock will be rocking here for mighty KU.  This is too many points in this spot.
Play 1 Unit on Texas Tech

#629 - Arizona -2.5  - 7 EST
Thew Wildcats off a heartbreaking loss to rival UCLA on last second shot, but they Ryan Anderson on the floor, the best player in the PAC 12 bar none.  They also have the best starting 5 in the PAC 12 as well and York is no joke.  USC has a good team but AZ dominated them last year winning by 20 and 30 points and AZ on a mission this week to bounce back, and this number under a 3 pointer is a gift.
Play 1 Unit on Arizona 

#599 - Florida State +8  5 PM
Too many points for Miami to give up here.  FSU is long and athletic and are a demon on the road at 10-2 ATS their last 12 road games.  This one should go down to the wire and an outright win by FSU is possible.

Play 1 Unit on Florida State

#567 - Wisconsin - Milwaukee -5  3 EST
Cleveland St has dropped 3 straight qand 4 out of their last 5 games and Wisconsin-Milwaukee is on a roll and have an 11 win team here with some very solid offense and have been scoring lights out.  Better on Offense, defense, rebounding and shooting percentage and have some depth as well. Akeem Springs an absolute rock star for WM and they are scoring 80 ppg their last 5 games as opposed to CSU who is scoring just 65.  Lot of sharps like the home dog here, not me, I will lay it on the road.
Play 1 Unit on Wis.- Milwaukee 

William and Mary -3.5

Play at dreadful Drexel who is a paltry 2-11 on the year and allowing more points than they are scoring on the year.  WM is a decent ball club and are 9-4 on the year and scoring ppg on offense than the Dragons.  As I look to the handicapping stats WM have a distinct edge in EVERY Stat category that counts.  Free Throws, Offense, Defense, Rebounding, Bench, turnovers and FG%.  As a matter of fact the Dragons are hitting just 34% from the floor in their last 5 games, while WM is hitting 46%.  Short number here on the road, willing to lay it.

Play 1 Unit on William and Mary – Tip at 7 EST 

Southern Illinois -11.5

Bradley is a bad team.  They ranked at #320 or worse in 10 of the Top stat categories I handicap.  I also know the Mo Valley well and SIU is having a great year.  13-2 and rolling.  Although Wichita St on deck, they are playing a team who has lost 12 division one games in a row, score 56 ppg on offense and allow 71.  Absolute blowout here.

Play 1 Unit on Southern Illinois 

LSU +4.5

Ben Simmons for LSU is the first pick in the draft next year and John Calipari faces a guy who is out of his mold of one and done’s superstar freshman.  Simmons has shot at least 60% from the floor in his last 6 games in a row and is a one man wrecking crew.  Kentucky has allowed a whopping 87 ppg on the road while scoring only 77.  LSU at home will be jacked up for this one and I feel the wrong team is favored.

Play 1 Unit on LSU  

#511 - Bucks +1.5

Are you kidding me?  The T Wolves have no offense as of late just 90 ppg their last 5 and fresh off a 25 point ass kicking and the Bucks are rolling and off am impressive win over the Pacers.  Better team with momentum here catching points against a struggling offense.

Play 1 Unit on Milwaukee 

Eastern Kentucky -5

Manhattan scores 66 and allows 77 points, playing a team who is 7-0 at home and scores 83 ppg.  Loose line here, it should be at least 8.5 to 9 points on my power scale.  On defense EKU grabs 10 more boards per game than the Jaspers which equates into easy points. Manhattan 0-4 ATS on the road.

Play 1 Unit on Eastern Kentucky 

Knicks +7.5

NY playing with 3 time revenge and Melo back in the lineup tonight.  The Celtics in their last 5 games have allowed 101 ppg against them and the Knicks are averaging 99 on offense, many of them without Melo.  I like the Knicks to make a serious run here and cover the number.

Play 1 Unit on NY 

#574 Washington State +13 vs Oklahoma

The Sooners have been my favorite team all season long but this another case where a team’s value is getting a little inflated and the spot heavily favors Washington State.

Oklahoma does not make too many trips to the West Coast, never mind to the islands. Oklahoma would not be the first team to turn a Christmas trip to Hawaii into a vacation and not play up top full speed.

Washington State has been a pleasant surprise this season jumping out to a 7-2 record behind 78.3 points per game and over 15 assists per game. The Cougars did lose a tough game earlier in the season to Gonzaga by nine points but have played tough winning two in a row and three of their last four.

Oklahoma is clearly the better team but Washington State has made plenty of trips to the island over the years and already being on the West Coast should make adjusting to the time zone difference easier for the Cougars. Look for them to hang around in this one against an Oklahoma team that may struggle with motivation and time zone adjustments on this holiday trip to Hawaii and keep this one well within the generous 15 ½ point head start.

Play 1 Unit on Washington State

#537 Iowa State +5 at Cincinnati

– Iowa State, as expected has been one of the strongest teams in the nation thus far. Their only loss on the season is a two-point loss at a Northern Iowa squad that also beat North Carolina at home.

The Cyclones have one of the best inside-outside combinations in the nation with Georges Niang,  Jameel McKay, and PG Monte Morris, who leads the BIG 12 in assists dishing out 7.7 per game.

Cincinnati is 10-2 on the season but has struggled some lately in the rare cases where they step up in class. They lost by double digits to Xavier and lost to Butler. They lack any big wins with their best win of the season coming against VCU by six.

Iowa State just has too many ways to win and Cincinnati is laying too many points in this spot. Look for this one to be close throughout but at the end of the day Iowa State will use their superior guard play to a road victory here.

Play 1 Unit on Iowa State

#544 Wake Forest +7.5 vs Xavier

While no one will question that Xavier may be the biggest surprise team in the nation this year, Wake Forest is also right up there on that list. The Demon Deacons are 8-2 with wins over Indiana and UCLA already this season.

Danny Manning has done a great job rebuilding this once proud Wake Forest program from the cellar dweller they have become the last decade. Wake Forest is averaging 79.7 points and 41 rebounds per game this season.

Xavier has been one of the hottest teams in the country thus far but like most hot teams they are starting to get overinflated numbers and values. This line should be a lot closer to Xavier -1 and thus we are getting a great deal of value at home with the Demon Deacons. In what should be a very close game we will go ahead and take the points with the motivated home team.

Play 1 Unit on Wake Forest

OVER 196 – Knicks and Magic

These 2 scored 191 back in November and neither shot better than 36% from the floor.  Both teams are hot and scoring well and evenly matched, and I expect some scoring in this one.  My scoring model database says 204 and that is an 8 point overlay worth the stretch for a double unit play.

Play 2 Units on the OVER 

Play 1 Unit on Duke.

No writeup however this is in NY Madison Square Garden and Duke has ripped off 5 straight games of 80 or more, beat Utah last season in the tourney and are better by 10 points here minimum even without Jefferson.