Ohio State -5

Like the Hometown team here regardless of Minny

Denver -8.5

Hot home team. Hot on offense, Boston NOT a good road team and while they have played well without Rondo, they run into a buzz saw here in the altitude after a long break. Denver is better, score lights out at home and not sure Boston can run the floor all night here and Denver pulls away late on a strong home floor. Boston has the Lakers on deck and oddsmakers begging us to take a decent team getting big points, I am not buying it Laying the wood here.

Play 1 Unit on Denver

North Carolina -3.5

All over the Tar Heels here. They beat GT by 16 earlier this season, and quite frankly they are playing better now than when they won that game. NC is losing to good teams yes, but they beat middle of the road teams in the ACC and GT qualifies as middle of the road at best, and very inconsistent. Tar Heels gaining strength down the stretch and should pick up a road win here laying a fairly short number against a team they should beat by 8-10 on the road. GT has managed just 58 ppg on offense their last 5 games.

Play 1 Unit on NC

Wichita State -3

A Must win for WSU tonight to keep in pace for the regular season crown in the Mo Valley , as Creighton is falling fast . The Shockers have stunk it up on the road but are well coached and playing with revenge here as Indiana State embarrassed and pounded WSU by 13 on their home floor and word is from my sources is that the Shockers have had this one circled big time. Indiana State off 2 straight losses and one of them to Mizzou State who is deplorable. Shockers get revenge and come in here focused to win a regular season Mo Valley title with a game lead on Creighton and a 2 game lead on Indiana State. This one is for a ton tonight, WSU the better team.

Play 1 Unit on Wichita State

K State -10.5



One thing about K State is that they beat lesser teams they are suppose to and never take a night off. At home in the Octagon of doom in the little apple, off a 20 point win over a good Baylor team, K State is kicking it in high gear down the stretch. UWV barely beat a horrible Texas Tech team at home on Saturday and this is a long road trip and Bob Huggins return to K State after leaving out of nowhere to take the WV job and doubt the locals greet him with open arms, no matter his affect on the K State program which was positive. K State the better team and they pounded Baylor with McGruder having a bad day which says something about the rest of the team. K State is consistent in beating teams lesser than them and playing at a high level, they could win this by 20 if they bring their A game.



Play 1 Unit on K State

Hofstra + 12.5



Drexel the better team no doubt but also one of the worst cover teams in the NCAA and I am going against one of the worst cover teams laying 12.5 to anyone. Strictly a line play here, Drexel wins but does not cover such a big number



Play 1 Unit on Hofstra

Notre Dame +10.5



Lots of Value in the line here as ND had a horrific performance last time they played against Providence scoring just 54 points in a blowout loss, but Pitt fared no better against Marquette losing by 10. These two teams are ranked in the Top 25 and yet this big of difference in points is too many to ignore no matter how tough Pitt is at home. Notre Dame will want to bounce back and I expect a solid effort and Pitt

Northern Iowa -3



Hot team, the Panthers have won 4 straight including beating Wichita State and Creighton and have already beaten Drake by 30 points this season and have covered 7 out of the last 8 in the series. Panthers not a good road team but I see them getting a road win here after dropping 3 straight on the road in conference action. NIU owns this Drake team.



Play 1 Unit on Northern Iowa

Duke -5.5



Maryland has not played Duke tight since the 2009 season and Duke is on a roll and off a lackluster performance in their last 2 road games so I expect Coach K to get it going early here. better offense, better players, Marylands point guard is suspended for this game as well. The Terps have only covered 2 out of their last 10 games!



Play 1 Unit on Duke

Arkansas (pick)



Not backing Mizzou who had 1 road win over Ol Miss who is a bottom feeder. Arkansas coach Smith left Mizzou for the Razorbacks last year and knows this Mizzou team insode and out and has a strong home floor here at 12-1 SU on the year and beat Florida in here. Mizzou played well their last 2 games but not sold on them in Fayeteville.



Play 1 Unit on Arkansas

Creighton -2



Cheap number here and it does look like a trap line and Creighton has lost to lesser teams than Northern Iowa on the road in conference action this year, but we are down the home stretch here as we near tourney time and Creighton is tightening the belt with their 23rd ranked Blue Jays team. The Panthers are catching a ticked off bunch tonight as Creighton has dropped 2 straight and dropped to 23rd in the rankings and with Wichita State tied in a dead heat for first place with the boys from Omaha, this in their minds is a must win game against a team they beat by 11 back on January 15th in Omaha. Northern Iowa has managed just 56 ppg on offense in their last 5 games while Creighton and Doug McDermott are averaging 75 ppg and 49% from the floor in their last 5. While NIU plays great defense they have no answer for McDermott and with a very motivated Blue Jays team coming in here I see no reason why Creighton does not play a complete game here with a ton on the line for them and get a 6-8 point road win. The road team is 7-2 ATS in this series, I like that trend to continue.



Play 2 Units on Creighton

K State +8

No way Kansas will lose 4 in a row right? Not so fast. Kansas had a players only meeting Sunday,

Miami -


The Lakers lost to Miami by 9 at home in their last meeting. LA has won 4 out of 5 BUT only 1 playoff caliber team was played during that stretch and they got waxed by 21 points in that one against Boston who was without Rhondo. Miami is playing lights out, LeBron is playing like he is from another planet right now and since that last meeting LA lost Gasol and is no better than thery were, especially with an unhealthy Howard and Miami has gotten better. The Heat rise to the occasion when playing big named teams and today will be no expection. This is the 7th and final road game for LA on this East Coast Swing road trip, and I love going against a team on a long road trip in their last game, LA could not have picked a worst opponent to end it on.



Play 1 Unit on Miami



Play half Unit on Denver +2 at Boston. Both teams hot, Denver's transition game soemthing Boston cannot hang with.



Play half unit on Houston -5.5 Sacramento in bigh trouble here, Houstonh should roll them by 8+ points. Houston 117 ppg on offense the last 5 games and Sacramento just 90. Houston shooting lights out.

Iliinois State +10

ISU playing great ball and in their last 5 games out stat Creighton who has struggled down the stretch here. ISU just put up 94 on Drake on the road, a team who blasted Creighton a few weeks ago. Too many points, Creighton not covering big numbers.

Play 1 Unit on Illinois State

Kansas -4

Kansas will NOT lose 3 in a row no matter how overrated they are. I posted this in a You Tube Vid on my site as Free but thought the line would 6 or 7, this opened at 4. Road game, yes, OU decent but KU beat them by 13 two weeks ago and beat them worse than the score indicated. Rest assured Bill Self will have them ready with their ears pinned back for this one, OU struggles on offense which is perfect for KU who has issues on offense.

Play 1 Unit on Kansas

Ol Miss +6.5

NC State +10.5

You have seen what top teams are doing laying big numbers recently (not covering) and while NC State has fallen off the map, they have lost 4 games recently between now and Jan. 12, by a TOTAL of 7 points! They are in every game, because their offense can score with anyone, and while Duke is at home, across town in this one, and avenging a loss at NC State already, laying this type of number with a Top 30 team who was ranked and need a big win to get back in the rankings, this one will not come easy and Duke really does not blow anyone out like days past. Dukes 5 game stretch of 65% from the charity stripe will haunt them down the stretch in a tight game if NC State fouls the right guys, and the stats are damn near even the last 5 between these 2, and NC State has a better shooting % from the floor, 3 point range and the free throw line. Too many points, even in revenge mode unless NC Sate fails to show up, and I do not see that happening.

Play 1 Unit on NC State

BONUS PLAY

Tulane -5 - Marshall 1-9 trheir last 10 roadies and only covered 4 out of their last 19 games and Tulane playing with 4 time revenge. Tulanes defense is solid going against a team who struggles scoring and has shot 49% from the free throw line in their last 5 games.

Creighton -5 - After Wichita St fell last Night, The Blue jays can take a commanding lead in the Mo Valley.Vastly better team here. Indiana State has no answer for McDermott and with ISU beating Wichita State on the road, they have Creightons full attention here.

No Writeups, but all these games are well researched and ready to win

Baylor +7 - 1 Unit - Okie State off a huge win at kansas, Baylor already beat OSU by 10. Tight one here. Baylor also beat Kentucky on the road this year.

Wichita State -10

I am still smarting off a big loss in the SHockers on Saturday but it does not deter me from laying 10 here against So Illinois. WSU lost their last 2 games and will be focused and mad here in this one. Souther Illnois is a wreck, scoring 51 ppg their last 5 games on offense and bear in mind the Shockers in their last 5 have allowed only 56....their offense has been sputtering but they can get healthy here real quick tonight and will come in here with their ears pinned back, trust me on that! Southern Ill. just 1-7-1 ATS their last 9 games at home.

Play 1 Unit on Wichita State

Kansas -8 to 8.5



UWV sitting at 9-10 on the season and off a bad road loss at Okie State on Saturday where they led and then got beat up in the second half. Not good news against Kansas who took care of business on Saturday against a good OU team and they should be able to dominate the boards and paint here for tons of easy baskets. With West Virginia

Creighton -11



Bad bad spot for Illinois State. Catching Creighton off back to back road losses and 4 days tio stew about it. Creighton has pounded ISU in each of their last 3 meetings by 19 points in each contest and I see that being close to the number tonight. ISU's best guard is SUSPENDED for this game, Jeff Early and his 13 ppg is out tonight for ISU, a team with little depth and that hurts. Creighton is better in every single category that counts, scoring, defense, rebounds, turnovers, free throws, bench ascoring, depth, and when you have that edge against a 8 win team and you are dropping like a rock in the polls and need a win, expect Creighton to have a nasty attitude in this one and blow the doors off ISU.



Play 2 Units on Creighton

NY Knicks -1 to 1.5

OK, the Celtics are about as bad as the Lakers right now. Aging team, no chemistry, issues closing games, and the Knicks are flat out better. Could not get more simpler than that gents. Add in th4e fact the Kicks are playing with revenge here after a 7 point home loss to Boston back on the 7th of this month, and the Celtics are in a funk, dropping 4 straight including games to New Orleans and Detroit, and I love the Knicks in revenge mode tonight and conversely the same road trip that Detroit and New Orleans was beating Boston, the following days NY was beating those same teams. Points in the paint go to NY and a rebounding edge as well, and the Knicks are better from the arc and at the free throw line.

Play 1 Unit on the Knicks

BONUS PLAY

Indiana State +7.5 (posted Tuesday Night )

Take the Indiana State here of back to back wins, and in a series they have OWNED covering 11 out of the last 13 in this series and they have the Better offense and better shooting percentage, and better 3 point percentage and have covered 9 out of their last 11 games. gettting 7.5 here is a GIFT! have No illisions they can this straight up.Illinois State is 1-6 SU and ATS their last 7 and shooting just 41% from tge floor and 26% from beyond the arc in their last 5.

Play 2 Units on Indiana State.

Kansas -3 to 3.5

Oddsmakers begging you to take K State and the home dog here, but bear in mind Kansas is used to winning at K State, and Bill Self is 7-2 SU in here and KU is 22-2 in here as a road team. Kansas

Oregon -



Better offense, better coach, and better resume. UCS just inconsistent in way to many categories. Oregon far better.



Play 1 Unit

Miami Heat +2



Lakers win two game against also rans and now lay points to a Miami team who is struggling but vastly better, especially on defense. No way I am buying that, James and company live for the spotlight like this to make a statement on national TV after some recent setbacks..love getting points here



Play 1 Unit on Miami

Northwestern +10.5



Illinois is the worst cover team in the Big 10 and have covered just 8 out of their last 29 games overall. NW is not a powerhouse but should give Illinois a game here, both off bad losses, but with Illinois struggling what are they doing laying 10 or 11 to anyone?



Play 1 Unit on Northwestern

Bradley -5.5

I got hammered on Bradley Saturday as they got blownout by No. Iowa but I like them here as they get their center back off of suspension and they have already beaten So Illinois by 6 on the road . I expect the Braves to bounce back on a strong homecourt tonight and get the series sweep. Southern Illinois has some guys banged up and the rebounding presence with Center Egolf back in there for Bradley will be some easy points inside they have been missing. Southern Illinois giving up 74 ppg and 51% from the floor in their last 5 games, that does not bode well when on the road.

Play 1 Unit on Northern Iowa

BONUS NBA Play- PLay Half Unit on Portland +9

As Noted- Due to time contarints- no detailed writeups with so many games to handicap before I release plays.



Illinois +5.5 - Good Illini team against Wiosconsin who managed just 47 points against the paltry Huskers on Wednesday. Too many points. 1 Unit

As Noted- Due to time contarints- no detailed writeups with so many games to handicap before I release plays.



Bradley +6 - Play 2 Units - Northern Iowa is in no way in a position to lay this many againhst a scrappy Brady Team. Take the points. Bradley has a better defense and better offense getting this m,any. The Panthers no near the team they were a few years ago gents.

As Noted- Due to time contarints- no detailed writeups with so many games to handicap before I release plays.


Kansas State (pick) - West Vrigina average at best and K State battle tested with big wins over Flroida on nuetral court and last week against Okie State. K STATE DEEPER-1 unit

Missouri +3.5

Opened at 4 and dropping, grab the points now. Mizzou a veteran team and they know how to win and are already battle tested this season. Their backcourt is experienced and Mizzou off a big win on a neutral site against undefeated Illinois. UCLA has allot of inexperience , especially in tight games this year while Mizzou has won some tight ones and I see Mizzou here winning this straight up. Pressey at the point for Mizzou is a stud and did damage to Illinois making only 3 out for 19. Mizzou

Heat -2.5 at home for 1 Unit. They will be up to defend their crown here and OK City meets their match again. Evenly matched, home court advantage, and King James will bring his "A" game for this one. Foget the stats, take the better team......

Merry Xmas.

St. Marys -2.5

The Gales beat Northern Iowa last year by 16 last year and have already beat Mo Valley opponent Drake on the road this year by 15 points laying this exact same number. Northern Iowa a young team and SM a solid club. You cannot live and die by the 3 pointer which the Panthers do, St marys a far better team on a 4 game win streak and the Panthers off 2 very bad losses and reeling.

Play 1 Unit on St Marys.

Play 1 Unit Each - I have capped these games but today no writeups as I am pressed for time with Holiday travel.



Kansas +4



Florida -9.5



Mizzou -1.5

Play 1 Unit Each - I have capped these games but today no writeups as I am pressed for time with Holiday travel.



Kansas +4



Florida -11



Mizzou -1.5

LaSalle -

Like the size differential and the guard play fro LaSalle here against an uindersized team in Iona. Mismatch in the backcourt..enough said, lay it with the home team.

Play 1 Unit

BONUS PLAY - OK City -3 against Minny for a half unit.

OVER 187.5 Atlanta / Washington

Play the Over here as neither team n play defense, and Atlanta should light it up. The total has exceeded 190 points in all but 1 game in the last 10 games. Both games this year have went Over. Atlanta coming off a bad loss at home and will open it up tonight.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

Play a half unit on San Antonio +2.5

Pistons / Clippers UNDER 192.5

Detroit plays some defense and there offense is in a funk and they should be able to disrput the Clippers offense and keep this under the number by 7-10 points versus the posted line. My power rating is at 185. The Clippers are hot ansd beating people by 15 ppf in their current 9 game win streak...an easy game to overlook and show up lathargic.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

Play half a unit on Pheonix -6.5

.

Iowa -

Look for Hawkeyes backcourt to be the difference here. Northen Iowa has a stud point guard but the turnovers and erratic play up top for the OPanthers will do them in. Iowa avenging a 20 point home loss to their in state rival as well.

Play 1 Unit on Iowa

Play a half unit on UNDER 134.5 in the Florida / Arizona Game

Play a half unit on The Pacers -2.5

UNDER 182 Bulls / Pistons

Two great defensive teams and one of the teams, Detroit is not good on offense which adds more fuel to the fire here. Da Bulls number 1 uin the NBA oin scoring defense by the way. This has smells like3 Under all the way here.

Play 1 Unit5 on the UNDER

Bonus Play Houston +8.5 for a half unit

Utah -3.5

Looks like Denver should be favored here, yet the Jazz, who are 5-0 at home are favored. That is a sure sign oddsmakers know that the Jazz are playing with revenge here after a 20 point road loss at Denver earlier this month. Utah is a different animal at home, winning their home games this season by an average of just under 11 points. Solid home team, on a very strong home floor, with revenge after an embarrassing loss. Utah is not only 5-0 at home, but covered 4 of those 5 games ATS.

Play 1 Unit on Utah, best of luck. TG

Denver +

Memphis is hot, have the best record in the NBA and now oddsmakers are playing catch up and laying a big number on them here. This play is about the line, not the game. This is a premium number because Memphis is hot and Denver is not. The Nuggets playing with 3 time revenge and were swept by the Griz last season and will not come in here and lay down. Memphis in unchartered waters as the NBA

Miami Heat +3



Yep, catching points with the best team in the NBA off a loss against a team that has owned them recently. Denver is 8-2 ATS against the Heat the last 10 games winning 3 out of the last 5 SU. Miami had a rough time at the Clippers last night and many think they will falter on back to back roadies, in the altitude here, but I am not sold on Denver who plays no defense against a team averaging 104 ppg with LeBron no doubt telling his team mates that Denver is a thorn in their side they need to take care of. Miami 42 % from 3 point range and Denver just 30% on the year. Miami has a better FG % as well on the year. D Wade is questionable and played very little last night, but I do not care. Look for the Heat to outscore the Nuggets, and maybe it is a set up line, but I am drinking the Kool-Aid here.



Play 1 Unit on Miami

Charlotte -1.5

Cheap line for the Bobcats who are now rivaled by the Wizards who are winless on the season and scoring just 88 ppg on offense and have not once exceeded 94 points in a single game this season. Charlotte

Butler -5

All over the Bulldogs here against a weak and downtrodden team Xavier. Butler won their last game by 42 points and have a transfer stud from Arkansas playing who has a made an impact and they house better in house talent that Xavier, and far more scoring potential.

Play 1 Unit on Butler.

Boston+3

Backcourt issues big time for Chicago in this game, and teh Bulls are one of the worst cover teams in the NBA out of the gate here. Boston is playing with some revenge here losing 5 out of the 6 games to the hometown Bulls here and the edge is in the backcourt qwhere the Bulls are into the bench now after injuries have hot the starters, and still no close replacement to Rose. Bostons weak defense not as big of factor is the put up 90+ in this one.

Play 1 Unit on Boston

Analysis: Minnestota +7.5

Playing against the Bulls here tonight and BOTH teams allow just 90 ppg on defense and Minny at 4-1 and playing well without Kevin Love. Too many points in what should be a low scoring game. Take the points for 1 unit.

OVER 193.5

My power ratings have this at 200. That is a 6.5 point overlay against the line. I make a move on a 4 point overlay with side or total in the NBA, so this is slight bump here. Both teams will pull out all the stops here and while OK City scored 98 the last game against a stout defense, it has been Miami

OK City +3.5

OK City had all kinds of issues, inexperience being one of them in game 3. Miami got the result of perfect storm on Sunday, it will not happen again tonight. Lest we forget the Thunder beat some very good and expere3inced teams to get here. They shot poorly from the floor, Durrant was out at crucial times with foul issues, they shot poorly from the free throw line while Miami went 31-35 from the stripe..the list goes on and on. Tired legs tonight versus rested legs, that makes playing defense tougher. Look for OK City to step it up from the outside, look for Harden to step up and for Durrant to go off. OK City way to good to go down 3-1 in this series, and Miami with all the things that went wrong in game 3 for OK City should have blown them out, they did not, a tale tell sign guys.

Play 1 Unit on OK City and a BONUS PLAY on the OVER 192.5 for a half unit.

Under 195 Heat / Thunder



Like the Under here for a few reasons., Game 1

OVER 179 Heat / Celtics

Chris Bosh returns tonight so that puts this side play on a crash course here as the entire reason Boston has a lead in this series is that Miami has no inside presence and is giving open look looks to Boston on the outside. What Bash can do is score with mid range shots which is specialty. Look for Bostons guards to have a better game and Garnett top continue to thrive despite Bosh

Spurs -5



Look for San Antionio's experience to win out here BIG. They have won their last 11 home games by an average of 16+ ppg. They are 11-0 in their last 11 at homne. This is a MUST WIN game, and no doubt their guard play will be better tonight and Duncan is now stepping up. This is the biggest game of the year for the Spurs NO DOUBT. They have a strong home court at 23-5-1 ATS their last 29 home games, UNREAL STAT! The Thunder have dropped 6 games in row by an average of double digits their last 6 in here. The huge homecourt enjoyed by the Thunder the last 2 games is over, they find out the real power of an away floor that is the strongest in the NBA tonight, San Antonio by 10+ here.



Play 3 Units on the Spurs.

Play OVER 206 Spurs / Thunder on Thursday - Tony George Sports

Anothert shootout and OK City at home will break 100 points on offense and San Antonio can match them for points especially with Parker playing well up top.

Play the Over

Miami -3

Wade and James are stepping it up and getting serious as evidenced by their last 2 games and performances. Indiana dealing with injuries to Grainger and West, both expected to play but not near 100% and both those players have to have big games for them to compete. Miami has some suspension issues but as evidenced by the last game, if James and Wade are on their game, they can dominate even without Bosh is will not play. The Heat looked lost without him the first 2 games after injury and but now have found balance with their 2 stars and it should be enough to carry the Heat here. Miami puts them away tonight, on the road.

Play 2 Units on Miami

Miami -1

Not messing around here. Just like the Boston game last night which I lost, Miami played poorly in their last game at home and lost a close one. The better team is Miami and good teams bounce back. Bosh out hurt the Heat but the overall team was their owrst enemy in game 2, shot 6% from 3 point range, shot 60% from the FT line and James missed 2 in a row with 50 seconds left and never too a shot in the last 3 minutes, and Miami managed 34% from the floor and still managed to lose only by a single point. Look for a better effort and continued pressure on Grainger who had 1 point in the first game and 11 in the last game. That is key to holding Indiana at bay. I have seen this scenario many times over the years and failed to pounce on Boston in the same scenario last night, I will not make the same mistake twice.

Play 1.5 Units on Miami

Philly -2

Like then younger team at home here. Philly got it done at Boston in game 2 after a solid fight in game 1 in a very slim loss, look for Philly to get over on Boston at home. Both games in this series decided by 1 point, but home court is worth 3 here and if Philly is to contend this is a MUST WIN game for them to get a leg up. Doug Collins knows how to coach, and look for Philly to open it up at home and continue to play good defense against a aging team here going deep into the playoffs with some fatigue as the Celtics bench is not all that deep. Philly won 2 home games against Boston by 32 and 13 points in the regular season and are 3-0 at home in playoff games, look for a 6-7 point win here.

Play 1 Unit on Philly

KC -128 for HALF Unit. Going against the O

San Antonio -11.5

Smell a blowout? Hell yes I do. 7 days off and 14 games in a row from San Antonio who comes in with the deepest bench in the NBA with all their veteran players well rested. LA comes limping in here with major injuries to all their stars, after a brutal series with Memphis and now travel to the lions den where the Spurs have the best homne court in the NBA (tied) and they have put up 100 points or more in 13 out of 14 games in this recent tear. No contest here.

Play 1 Unit on San Antonio

Short and Sweet here gents.



Over 169.5 to 170 Bulls / Sixers



Almost unheard of to have a line of under 170 in an NBA game. In order for the 76ers to win, they HAVE to dictate Pace. The Bulls are reeling without Rose and Noah not 100% here and I feel after their shooting issues and lack of production, they know the pace will be brisk and look to get Courver in the mix here and put up some points. I can see Philly getting 85-90 points here at home and an all out effort. Bulls can keep pace.



Play 1 Unit on the Over



Atlanta +6.5

Chicago +1.5



2 things at work here. Da Bulls are 24-9 SU on the road this year and have won many games without Derrick Rose in the process of the 24 wins they have had. They allowed 109 points at home thier last game and were totally out of sync. They also allowed the Sixers well over 50% from the floor without challenging shots. That will not happen twice. Look for the Bulls to redeem themselves here and iron out the rough spots without Rose and beat up on the Sixers here on the road. Chicago the deepest team in the NBA abd they will utilize that tonight.



Play 1 Unit on the Bulls.

Miami -5



There write-ups are getting shortened as the same game scenario in almost each game between series plays are simply not needed. The Knicks shot 49% from the floor on the road and still lost by 10 in game 2 and were blown off the court in game 1. They lack presence in the paint and with their big guy out with a hand injury, self inflicted, they have no chance here. Bottom line, the Heat vastly better and a short handed Knicks team at home without one of their studs is simply not going to beat Miami no matter where they play.



Play 1 Unit on Miami


NBA from Tony George

Dallas -3

Figured this line would be at this number, no surprise from oddsmakers here. Have no doubts, the Mavs gave OK City all they wanted and then some in BOTH games in OK City. Tonight they should pick up their first win at home, on a strong homecourt. You can analize these games to death if ya want, I simply say Dallas is due and at home they get it done tonight. They are the defending world champs with veteran talent who knows how to win with their back against the wall.

Lean to Dallas

Orlando +3

I always like taking a team returning home for their first home game in the playoffs. Orlando lacked energy and shooting percentage in game 2 of this series and really gave it away in the 3rd quarter. They also were owned on the boards as losing Howard is a huge blow for them but allowing the Pacers second chance points is killing them. Orlando has shot poorly and I look for that to improve at home and give their best effort here in their home opener. Orlando as a home dog under 5 points is 7-3 ATS their last 10 in this position and this is a must win game. Home court helps big here.

Play 1 Unit on Orlando

Play half unit on the Phillies -108- Listed pitchers only- cannot rermember getting Halladay at this price ever.

Hawks / Celtics OVER 178.5

Atlanta scores 99 ppg at home. 10 out of their last 11 have went Over at honme. expect them to open it up and get a jump on Boston here. They have average a combined allowed 186 ppg on defense their last 5 games. Atlanta also averaged 108 ppg on offense their last 5 games. Obviously you cannot look at the last 5 games because of how many of those games were played to end the season but these two have scorers all over the place and Pierce is playing for Boston. Atlana is very good on the offensive glass which is also easy points. Atlanta is also 11-1 ATS on the Over in their last 12 games against Eastern Conference foes.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

Bonus Play - Play a half unit on the Clippers +5.5. Chris Paul is playing tonight for LA.

OVER Lakers and Spurs

Kobe Bryant returns tonight for LA so expect some fireworks and added scoring for LA who is avenging a home loss where the Spurs throttled them and had 112 points 3 days ago. In the Lakers last 29 games against Western Conference teams they have went OVER in 21 of those games. The Spurs are not the defense juggernaut as they have been in years past and currently are averaging 104 ppg their last 5 games. The suit up everyone again tonight for this rematch and you can expect a high scoring affair here. I have this power rated at 209, that is a 6.5 point overlay against the line. San Antonio is hitting 51% from the floor overall and 41% from 3 point range in their last 5 games. Although the Under trends for these 2 clearly favor that proposition, it is what is going on right here, right now and this one should go over the total with ease.

Play 1.5 Units on the OVER

Detroit +9

Going with the Pistons and big points here gents. They are playing better and just destroyed the Cavs last night. These 2 teams have played 3 times this year. Detroit had a 1 point home win, lost by 5 and 6 in the other two games, one of them an OT game. I like where Detroit

Indiana Pacers +3

San Antonio -5 to 5.5



Scheduling, it is all about scheduling spots in the NBA when it comes to pointspreads. Tough spot for Memphis to travel after a game last night to a very strong home court. San Antonio had ripped off 11 straight wins befoire losing at Utah, but they rested their best 3 players in that game, something their head coach has done this season, and I was all over the under in that game last week for a big winner. Now at home the Spurs are full strength, and got beat at home against the Lakers last night without superstar Bryant. Memophis won against the Suns at home, a play I was on. Spurs too good to go 0-3 in their last 3 games, last night was a wake up call. So why is the line 5 or higher against a team who this year has beaten OK City and Miami on the road? SET UP LINE. Oddsmakers Beggin you to take the points, and I am not buying it. Rememeber including last nights loss, the Spurs are an amazing 23-5 SU at home. One stat jumps off the board at me with this line, after a losing a game against the spread, the following game the Spurs are 11-1-1 ATS the following game in their last 13 times in this scenario. I have a feeling the Spurs put it all together tonight. The Spurs have went 3-0 SU against Memphis so far this year and won each of those by more than 5 points. Catching the Spurs in a bad mood at home where they are almost unbeatable, I am willing to lay this number.



Play 1 Unit on San Antonio

OVER 177.5 Toronto / Philly

In their last games Philly managed 103 points last night at the Nets and the Raptors scored 98 in their last game. With Philly falling off the map this is an opportunity to open it up on offense again as they did last night and they are looking at going 2-0 on this road trip they are on tonight. Not willing to lay 4 with them on the road yet which is the line tonight, but I think they will be in the 90

UNDER 208.5 Utah / San Antonio

These two played last night in a high scoring affair in San Antonio, in a back to back scenario / home and home series. The Spurs are 3-1 ATS their last 4 games of back to back on Unders. I have a power rating of 201 here, which is a 7.5 point overlay. It seems as usual for the course that the second of back to backs are always lower scoring and harder fought games. Utah allows just 95 ppg at home this season. Duncan and Parker are listed as doubtful tonight for rest as well as Gionobli. I do not know what that means but the Spurs won

OK City -3.5

With OK City losing back to bacvk at home against Memphis and then at Miami in a revenge game for the Heat, I like them against the Pacers on the road. They would be favored by 7 at home minimum in this game, and with Chicago winning last night, they are 3 games out of the #1 seed in the East and they will be focused in this one no doubt and looking to get back on the win side of things here with a big game. Indiana playing better but beating weak sisters, and I think OK City proves why they are one of the best teams in the NBA tonight in what I see is a must win game with a decent number here to lay on the road.

Play 1 Unit on OK City

BONUS PLAY

Miami -2.5

Two things here. Revenge and home court. Really you can go back and forth on stats and man to man matchups, but at days end it is about the NBA

Golden State +7 to 7.5



Reversal of fortune for the Griz, who I put out as an 8 point pup on Monday as a free play and they won outright at OK City last night in a shocker. Tough scheduling spot for OK City and in the NBA this is a sound solution to finding winners, looking at scheduling spots. Golden State is getting big points here, playing with triple revenge and catching Memphis on their fourth game in 5 days and they have a huge game with Dallas on deck tomorrow. Coming off a huge upset win, this is a classic letdown spot in the scheduling with a look ahead game tomorrow. Like the points


Play 1 Unit on the Warriors.

Kentucky -6.5

No doubt Kansas deserves to be here, but I simply am shocked, since I know the the Big 12 that KU got this far, if anything I thought Mizzou might be the team. Kansas limped through the Ohio State game and really just ground it out and let OSU beat themselves, which they did. Kansas struggled from the floor and no matter how they slow this game down, the Wildcats are better in every phase and can play either way. Bear in mind Calipari was the coach at Memphis when Kansas beat them in 2008 in OT for the title on a last second miracle shot, he has not forgotten. Davis is the best player on the floor, Kansas lacks the outside shooters to contend. Kansas turned it over like crazy against Ohio State as trhey always do abd got by witgh it, it will not happen here. Kansas getas blown out here. I think their big men get into foul trouble and if they struggle the Jayhawks are in big trouble.

Play 3 Units on kentucky

Thanks for all your business in 2012 and March Madness in NCAA Hoops. I appreciate it and see ya next year and in NBA and MLB...Tony

Orlando -5.5

Love the mis match here as Orlando relys on the 3 point shot and their perimeter game, and Denver plays little defense up top and outside the box. Orlando is a beast at home covering 9 out of their last 12 games. This is also the 6th road game since March 23rd for the Nuggets and I like going against teams on the end of a leg of a long road trip and they are catching a good team off back to back losses at home.

Play 1.5 Units on Orlando.

Ohio State / Kansas OVER 136.5

IN all honesty I am very surprised KU made it here and a big win over Carolina without their star point guard did not impress me as they allowed 47 in the first half of that game and KU

Louisville +8.5

Whole world on Kentucky here but I am taking big points in a big game. Can Kentucky out rebound Louisville? Yes, Does Kentucky have the better tea? Yes. All that said Rick Pitino is a master at coaching big games and while Calipari is no slouch, the overall experience factor with an older team, a veteran coach who has been here, an in state rivalry, and the team with the better defense who has shut down some very good teams getting almost 9 points to me, as a capper who has seen these final 4 games turn into a nightmare for heavy favs in the opening games over the Year, has me all over the Cards in this one to cover the number. I expect a lower scoring game and big points in a low scoring game with a team that has reached the final 4 is too good to pass up.

Play 1 Unit on Louisville

Atlanta -3.5


The banged up Knicks are a good bet to go AGAINST on the road. They have dropped 7 out of their last 9 by almost an average 10 ppg in those losses and in all 7 losses lost by more the spread tonight. Atlanta is a different animal at home and with Joe Johnson drawing a good matchup here and having some dominant wins at home this season, and on a 6-2 home run, I am backing the Hawks who play well at home against a team not 100% that plays poorly on the road.



Play 1 Unit on Atlanta



BONUS PLAY

Stanford +1



I have looked at this game six ways from Sunday and a pick

Stanford -2.5

U Mass

Over 148 Baylor / Kentucky



Both teams show no signs of slowing down. Baylor has gone over 6 out of their last 7 and Kentucky 4 out of their last 5. Add in the fact both teams shoot long range, run the floor well in transition and can flat out hang with anyone. Should be a great game with lots of fireworks. Plenty of fouls too and both teams good at free throws.



Play 1 Unit on the Over



Play a half unit on North Carolina +2. Kansas's guards are not good enough and Robinson will struggle aganst NCs frontcourt and will not bail them out.

Florida / Lousiville OVER 131.5

Gators and Cards struggled in their last games in terms of big numbers on offense but it should be noted Florida scored over 70 four games in a row. Pitino knows he has to open it up to win this one and Florida is a big time permieter shooting team, and the cards cabn counter. Lousuivilles last game holding Mich St to under 50 points helps this line, this will not be a snails pace type game and this line should be 139 or higher.

Play 1 Unit ont he Over

Play a Half Unit on Ohio State +2.5. I think Melo being out catches up here with Syracuse who really struggled against Wisconsin. OSU better than Wisconsin!

Marquette -1.5



I haver stated in forums and anywhere I can Marquette the real deal. Florida has had a breeze through the tourney including Norfolk State who upset Mizzou in round 1 as their second game. Marquette battle tested, a hell of a team and deep on the bench. Florida lives by the 3 and dies by it with their guard play, and Marquette counters with hustle, rebounding and solid shot selection as well as perimetter defense. Toughest game Florida has played since losing to Kentucky in SEC semis...they lose again, Marquette is all over the floor and will force long jumper and the Gators will not be able to keep pace.



Play 1 Unit on Marquette



Play a HLAF UNIT EACH Cincy +8

Florida State -2



Like the scare and challenge presented to FSU against St. Boniies in round 1, and also while I took Cincy for my Top Play of the Tourney so far, they almost ran out of gas against a young and really not that talented Texas team. FSU a hot team, ACC Champs and one key is Cincy stuinks from the free throw line, 58% their last 5 games and only hitting 26% from 3 range. FSY playing good defense and are hitting their 3 pointers, and I also like their frontcourt on the defensive glass. They also are hitting 77% from the free throw line, and with 2 points being the spread here, thaqt is a huge difference.



Play 1 Unit on Florida State



Play a half unit on Kansas -7.5 to 8. KU's front court is going to give Purdue fits and is a mis match here. KU poised to make a run, and had an easy game in round 1. Purdue needed every second on the clock to beat St Marys.

Iowa State +11

Not sold on Kentucky here at 0-5 ATS their last 5 games and laying double digits, and they struggled early against Western Kentucky before pulling away. ISU dominated U Conn and are a very well coached team (therir coach was coach of the year in Big 12). They are deep and can shoot it from the perimeter and set up and play some half court offense to. ISU very athletic as well and should be able to somewhat contain Kentucky tranistion game. Iowa State is a great ATS cover team too, 20-7 ATS their last 27 Saturdays, they were the best conference cover team all year in the Big 12, they also beat Kansas this season, and are 18-7-1 ATS their last 26 games overall. I am grabbing the points, laying big points in the tourney is doom, as evidenced by Fridays results.

Play 1 Unit on Iowa State

Bonus Play - Louisville -1 to 1.5 for a half unit, lkike them over Stev Alfords New Mexico team here, Pitino knows how to coach in this tourney and they are Big East Champions.

Kansas State +4.5



Sexy pick since Sryacuse who has only 2 losses all year but without their big man they were exposed. K State the most physical team in the Big 12 and they have an inside presence that should be a huge difference here. Cuse struggling from the floor and the rumored K State offense being no good is just a rumor, they have scored over 70 in 5 out of their last 6 games. Cuse weak in the middle and having issues on the glass, K State attacks it.



Play 1 Unit on K State



Play a half unit on Gonzaga +7.5. I have said OSU overrated all year, they get exposed here, Zags can shoot it from the outside with anyone.

Miami Heat -3.5

Like getting this short number with the Heat tonight. They have dropped 2 straight including a tough one at Chicago, and Philly a good team but not ready for prime time, even at home in this one. The Sixers record is deceiving in that they have played the 27th weakest schedule in the NBA, and I do not see Miami losing 3 in a row, and although they are 1-6 ATS their last 7, they have owned the Sixers in the past and this is a winnable road game. Wade and James too much here, and NO DOUBT the Heat will be focused and ready to snap a 2 game slide tonight. Too much firepower for Philly.

Play 1 Unit on Miami

Memphis -3

A VERY Good basketball team who has been publically vocal about an 8 seed, and want to prove a point. Memphis is loaded in guys that can flat out ball. St Louis a nice season but in over their head here in my opinion and this is a very soft line, as St. Louis and Rick Majerus are a sexy pick in brackets. On Paper and man to man matchups are a different ball of wax. The Tigers hitting 52% from the floor their last 5 games and while The Bilikins play good defense, the last good team they played was Xaiver and they got beat by 7 and allowed 71 points when their average for the season is 57. Good teams give them issues and Memphis is motivated here. Memphis will win the battle on the glass here too which equates to easy points and Memphi

Cincy -2



Not sold on Texas, just 1 scorer in Brown and Cincy batttle tested and got to the finals of the Big east in a low scoring affair. texas struggles with physical teams, and with no outside game will gfind the going tough here. Rick barnes not a good coach in big games, never has been. texas is young, I like Cincy here, who beat Syracuse, georgetown and Marquette in 3 out of theior last 5 games, texaxas no where near that resume.



Play 2 Units on Cincy



Bonus Play - NC State +2.5 - Played well in ACC Tourney, should have got the win against NC and played much tougher teams all year.

U Conn -1.5 to 2

I watched Iowa State 3 times this year in person. They are inconsistent and not near the team they are at home. Night and Day. U Conn an expereinced team at key positions, have the best player on the floor, the best coach in the house who won a national title last year and U Conn despite losing out in the Big East Tourney will dominate the backcourt here and grab more boards. ISU got pummeled by Texas in Big 12 Tourney, and honestly Texas is not all that good. ISU a good cover team but that is because they win at home and on the road cover sizable numbers in conference action. I have this at -5.5.

Play 2 Units on U Conn

Bonus Play 1 Unit on UNLV. Colorado a apaper tiger here. Very inconsistent team who won the worthless PAC 12 Tourney.

Murray State -4

Not sold on Colorado State but I am sold on Murray State to make some noise in this tourney including a big win here on a short number. 30-1 for a reason folks, any division I team is. MSU 50% from the floor and 40% from 3 point range and allowed just 57 ppg on defense, all last 5 game averages. High expectations no doubt and CSU will come to play, but they lost 4 out of their last 6 games and two of them to Boise State and TCU and they were 6-10 away from home including neutral floors. Like Murray State here.

Play 1 Unit on Murray State in a big win.

Bonus Play MONTANA +9.5 for a half Unit and VCU +6.5 half Unit. Wisconsin overrated (Big 10 overrated) and Montana has a solid offense and Wichita State might win this but taking big points here with a capable team who come in here hot and we all know what VCU did last year. The guy can coach.

Cal -2.5 to 3

I have no doubts here. Cal wins an at large bid here with an RPI of 39 and really had some bad luck at seasons end. They get a bid in spite of the fact they did not win the regular season or post season PAC 12 crown, which tells me pollsters, oddsmakers and selection people KNOW they are a solid team. South Florida went 2-9 against the RPI Top 50, Cal has too much here. I will not back a team at this stage scoring less than 60 ppg on offense.

Cal rolls, lay the short number.

Valpo +10.5



Miami's best player is out, ineligible. They are not the same without their leading scorer and assist leader. Valpo won the Horizon Leauge regular season crown but dropped a game to Detroit in the smis'. They will be mucxh more excited anbout being here thasn Miami who lost early in the ACC Tourney and are a team that struggles to score. They were also passed up by the NCAA Tourney so gettingup for this one will not be easy, and being short handed against a leauge champ who is geting 11 points, and are very well coached by Bryce Drew whose family has a great pedigree in coaching (Dad is Homer and brother at Baylor) and ready to play will be a tough cover, I am grabbing the points.



Play 1 Unit on Valpo



Bonus Play - Play a half unit on Lamar -3. They beat Vermont in this one by 6-8.

Akron Zips +6.5

One team happy to be here, one team not. I like that setup. Akron won the MAC regular season but failed to win the conference tourney by a single point to an Ohio team that actually might make some noise in the Big Dance. Northwestern pinned their hopes on an NCAA Tourney bid out of the overrated Big 10 conference this year and had some bad losses. Akron will not be an easy beat and could win outright here. Akron big the frontcourt, should have a good edge on the glass which is easy points, and NW has issues with big frontcourts. Akron has a high RPI rating than NW! Take the points.

Play 1 Unit on Akron.

Bonus Play

Baylor +3.5


Yes I live in Kansas City and am somewhat of a Tiger fan by force of nature, but I saw every game in this tourney for the past 3 days in person, and Baylor has the components to win this game. Yes it is a home crowd NO DOUBT, but Baylor dominated Kansas last night. Mizzou's Kim English is KEY for them and word is is will not be 100% tonight. The KEY is Baylor in the frontcourt. Texas scored at will in the paint and could not hit anything else last night and Mizzou was hot from 3 point range. Hard to go back to back outside against a team like Baylor who will win the battle in the paint which is easy scores. Baylor also can hit from outside and Perry Jones III the best player in this game. Mizzou skated through with 2 easy games, Baylor has beaten K State and Kansas both in convincing fashion. They win it down low. Baylor too good to lose 3 in a row to the same team, and beating a Top 10 team, even ibn KC is a tough nut for Tigers....both teams VERY good, Baylor more well rounded and revenge is a huge deal here.


Play 1.5 Units on Baylor

Play a half unit on Louiville -2

Mizzou

Iowa State +1

The best cover team in the Big 12 bar none is Iowa State AT 20-6-1 ats LAST 27 IN bIG 12 PLAY. Their head coach got coach of the year award in the Big 12 this year. While the Cyclones are a beast at home, they are iffy on the road, but Texas is desperation mode as without a win they do not go dancing next week, but ISU clearly the better team. Rick Barnes, as I have said for year, is a terrible big game coach, and while Texas is talent5ed, they are young and struggle on the road away from Austin. These two teams split on the season and ISU lost at Texas back in late January by 7. Rest assured ISU has a better resume too with wins on the road at Kansas State recently, Baylor, beat Kansas at home, and I think they pull this one out by 4-6 points. ISU also travels well and will have a full house for this one in Kansas City. Texas