Pacers at Heat -8 Total 182.5

LeBron James only scored seven points in Game 5.  Paul George countered with 37 for the Pacers.  With James not playing much because of foul trouble the Heat still had a chance to win the game and the total stayed under by .5 point.  I’m not getting in the way of the Heat, but I don’t want to lay that much chalk either.  I like the total to go over.  James, 7 points and only .5 point under the total in Game 5.

Play one unit on the Over 182.5

OK City at San Antonio -5  Total 206.5

Three of the first four games in this series have gone under the posted total.  The Spurs got 66 points in the paint in game one, the only game to go over the total.  In games 3 and 4 with Ibaka back in the Thunder lineup the Spurs have avg. just under 40.  Ibaka isn’t the whole difference but it sure takes away some of the easy points.  This is a big game and I look for both defenses to ramp it up here.  I will take the under in this game tonight.

Play one unit on the Under 206.5

Miami -1.5 to -2

I would not step in front of the  Heat tonight.  If they get out early, they can smell the blood in the water here and a must win to rest up for the Western Champs would be a HUGE advantage for the Heat, who are the better team, more consistent, and quite frankly with Hibbert a no show again and some in fighting amongst the Pacers, I like the Heat to close this out tonight.

Play 1 Unit on Miami  

OVER 204.5 to 207 Spurs / Thunder

No brainer here, HUGE Game for the both of these teams, and I doubt Parker is a no show tonight and you can expect the veteran Spurs to pull out all the stops tonight, as well as OK City and that means plenty of offense.  Oddsmakers dropped this total down a full point, point and a half from Game 3, I am all over this one.  I would not step in front of either of these teams tonight as scoring will be emphasized from both coaching staffs.

Play 2 Units on the Over

Indiana +6.5

Simple theory here, perhaps a zig zag from last game.  The Pacers could not have played worse and the Heat could not have played better in the last game.  I look for Indiana to play vastly better and some regression from Miami here.  Too many points as the Pacers look to avenge a bad performance and I expect a lower scoring game which also favors the points.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana  

San Antonio +2

Are you kidding me?  My power ratings have this at Spurs -4.5, that is a 6.5 overlay!  That is RARE in the NBA.  Call it a square bet, perhaps I have egg on my face but I am 100% confident the difference between these 2 teams is so far apart right now it is not recoverable for the Thunder, even at home to close the gap.  112-77 and you are getting 2 when I I posted this play?  Give the best team in the NBA and points??  Hell yeah!   Come on – OK City has 2 options to score, no Ibaka is KILLING them, and San Antonio is the best team left standing, the best team on the road in the NBA with the best coach in the NBA and the strongest bench in the NBA and the Spurs 3 stars are performing at the peak of their game.  Did I mention OK City has 2 scorers and Durant looks lost and is in a funk?  A home court advantage is not enough, the Spurs may close this out in 4 games, maybe 5 but they would need an epic fail in order to not sweep this series and rest up for Miami or Indiana, and that is exactly their agenda, and with the experience they have on hand, they know the drill well and what awaits them on the road after an ass kicking they handed out in game 2, they will be ready.

Play 3 Units on San Antonio

OVER 211 – Spurs / Thunder

Zig Zag theory in effect?  Opposite of Game 1.  I doubt it although OK City MIGHT cover the 6..I am staying away from that.  Look at the Heat last night, that entire game was opposite from game 1.  While I cannot lean to the +6 here because of the scoring drought other than 2 players for OK City right now, and with Ibaka out, I like the easy points in the paint that San Antonio enjoys, 66 points in the paint in game 1.  Defense apparently is not allowed in the West and the Spurs consistently score 100+ at home and the Thunder play bad defense late.  This line is up 3 points from game 1 (208.5) where these 2 scored 227 points and I expect no less in the shootout oriented Western Conference again tonight. 

Play 1 Unit on the Over

Miami -2.5

Yeah a public bet.  But also bear in mind Miami is 10-0 SU off a playoff loss their last 10 defeats.  The Pacers played a perfect game with help from the refs and shooting at near 60% will not happen twice against a Heat team hell bent on revenge with better players and a vastly better coach and the best player in the NBA who will look to dominate this game….

Play 2 Units on Miami 

OK City +5.5

Yeah the Spurs are unreal at home, best record in the NBA and have a deep bench.  But OK City has won the last 5 meetings dating back to last April by an average of over 10 ppg, and dating back to June of 2012 are 8-2 SU against the Spurs.   Parker is limited tonight and with San Antonio playing no defense recently and the total at 209 in this game, I expect both teams to score plenty.  With NBA underdogs in the post season at 67% and the Pacers covering last night outright, I will take the points here.  Too easy to lay it with the Spurs, against a team they have struggled with.  3 pointer one way or the other, OK City 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these 2.  Wow!

Play 1 Unit on OK City

Over 181.5  Heat / Pacers

I listened to 2 different interviews with Miami's head coach this week and his key is pushing the ball, and he clearly stated Miami wants this game in the 90's and higher on offense as that is the key to winning.  Looks like an easy take on Miami laying the short number but this is a trap line and I expect both teams here to score in the 90's and for Miami to make it a priority to do so as that is the key to beating the Pacers, and I expect Indiana to play well here at home.

Play 1 Unit on the Over  

OVER 180 Pacers / Wizards

These 2 teams got to 181 points without the Pacers breaking 80 points in their last game and the Wizards who face elimination will do what they do best, and that is score as many points as a lazy and lethargic defense of the Pacers will allow them.  I also do not expect the Pacers to manage only 79 points.  I  Have cashed numerous totals plays on the over against the Pacers even through the Hawks series and this one has over written all over it as both teams will pull out all the stops in this one. 

Play 2 Units on the OVER 

OVER 188.5 Heat / Nets

Both games went over with ease in Miami at the first of this series, the last game also went way over.  The offenses combine for a 5 game average of 194 ppg and the Nets defense is giving up 100 ppg in their last 5.  Both teams will pull out all the stops tonight.  Nets to avoid elimination and Miami to put it away, and James totally in sync and taking over.  I expect more from Miami’s bench tonight too.

Play 1 Unit on the Over

Bonus 2 Team 4 Point Teaser-  Play 1 Unit.  Tease Miami to down to -3 and Tease the Spurs down to -4  - I do not see either team losing.

LA Clippers +5.5

Underdogs headed into tonight the last 4 days are 7-1 ATS and home favs are getting crushed.  There is little difference between these 2 teams and it is KNOWN that Durant and Westbrook cannot beat the 5 deep Clippers on the scoreboard.  There is no 3rd scorer for OK City that is consistent, and LA will score 100+ in this game and if George covers Durant again like the last game, it is disruptive for KD in terms of points produced and while George is smaller Durant does not play well with his back to the basket and I think the Clippers are well past tabloid issues and playing great ball, and overall have the deep scoring needed to contend with the Thunder here, I will grab the points.

Play 1 Unit on the LA Clippers

OVER 188 Miami / Brooklyn

Have no doubt Miami will be dialed in tonight off a loss, a bad one in game 3.  Also have no doubt that the Nets will bring all they have to try and tie the series.  I expect LeBron to go off tonight and when he does he gets double teamed and that opens up options for a ton of other scorers on the roster.  Miami’s defense has been lackluster and the Nets should easily get 95 tonight, and I expect Miami to reach triple digits.  Miami is 5-1 ATS the next game off a SU loss.  Small lean to the Heat -2.5 as well for a half unit.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 188

Play the OVER in the Spurs / Blazers game at 210.5  for 1 Unit – I think the Spurs close this out, the Blazers have no answer for them on defense at all and I expect the Blazers to pull out all the stops.

Play a half unit on the Heat -2 to 2.5

Indiana +4.5

Pacers dialed in.  Looks like a spot play to take Washington BUT the Pacers defense has shown up, Hibbert has shown up and they have a small chip on their should they needed.  They forced 18 turnovers last game and held the high flying Wiz to 65 points.  I like them to cover in a wire to wire type game....low scoring game, sniff the Under here, I will take the points. ONE UNIT MAX.....these lines are tight today....this is a contrarian play versus the public and no doubt many Pros....but Indiana is dialed in and playing their best ball of the playoffs and Washington in a funk especially offensively.

Play 1 Unit on Indiana 

San Antonio -1.5
 
Huge advantage on the line here, Portland is no match for the Spurs who have blown them off floor with ease.  Nothing will change Saturday because they are at the Rose garden.  The Spurs are the best road team in the NBA, have the best record, have the veteran talent and depth on the bench and the experience all on their side.  2 Double digit wins and now they lay 5 points less than their last spread?  Blazers giving up 111 ppg on defense and scoring 101 in their last 5 games overall.  Home court won't help them here, nothing changes, they are totally outmatched at days end, Spurs too deep with talent against a young team.  Total mis-match.
 
Play 3 Units on San Antonio

UNDER 214 Clips / Thunder
 
At home LA allows 100 and on the road the Thunder also allow 100 for the season.  While I expect the usual Western style game here this number is loved by the public with 70% of the action so far on the over, but I see a tight game here and a lower scoring affair in game 2 which we have seen in a few of the games in round 1 and round 2.  As the series expands, teams get more strategic in their approach and I see this sliding under the number.  All signs point towards the over but I am going contrarian today.
 
Play 1 Unit on the Under  

Spurs -6.5

Expect the dominance to continue tonight.  Portland was lucky to get by Houston, barely won the games they won in that series with the largest margin of winning at 7 points, failed to cover all but 2 in the series and they looked lost and completely outclassed against the veteran Spurs.  The bench of the Spurs and the depth of talent and experience both on the floor and in coaching is too much for the Blazers.  No line adjustment off a 24 point loss, the Blazers defense giving up 112 ppg their last 6 games, and against the Spurs at home that is not a good thing as San Antonio is in full sync on offense, there is a 14 point defensive differential between these 2 teams their last 5 games overall. 

Play 2 Units on San Antonio

Over 185  Pacers / Wizards

Cashed the over in game 1 and oddsmakers made a 1.5 point adjustment.  Say what?  We are betting numbers, not games, that adjustment is not enough.  Chicago could not shut down Washington with their vaunted defense and the Pacers defense (#2 in NBA) yielded over 100 points in game 1 of this series and all starters for the Wiz were in double digits in scoring plus a bench player!!  I expect Indiana to score better this game and the Pacers are getting dominated inside (Hibbert has vanished) and that equates to easy points.  Washington can and will continue to put up points against a confused and under coached Pacers team.

Play 2 Units on the OVER 

San Antonio -6.5

What did Portland do against Houston?  Nothing really and won on a miracle and they also allowed 110 ppg on defense in that series.  That will not fly as they meet their ,match tonight against a talented Spurs team with a deep bench and 3 stars on the floor.  I expect San Antonio to play good defense, especially in the backcourt and win by double digits tonight.  Portland is the public’s flavor tonight, I am not buying it. 

Play 1 unit on San Antonio

Over 183.5 Washington / Indiana

If Washington can rack up points all over the vaunted Bulls defense in the first round, have no doubts they can and will against Indiana, who had issues slowing down the Hawks offense which is not all that great.  The Wiz well rested and Indiana off a draining 7 games series against Atlanta, I expect them to have some fatigue issues in this game and that will show up on defense.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER 

Dallas at San Antonio -6.5 Total 197.5

Top Play! Another game 7, this is the way it should be.  I’m traveling, so not much time for a write up.  I know both of these teams can and will score in this game.  I like this so much we have a Top Play here.  I like the Over 198.5.

Top Play two units on the Over 197.5

Nets at Raptors -3

The Nets have picked up momentum after coming back to almost win game 5, then winning game 6, they head to ‘Toronto for game 7.  I’ll take the experience of the Nets in this game and catch some points.

Play one unit on Brooklyn +3

Atlanta at Indiana -6.5

The Hawks have won twice in Indy already in the series.  I’m not sure they get it done against the best home team in the league but this is too many points for a team that certainly can get the win.  Hibbert only got 12 mins. With a new rotation to combat the Hawks.  It worked, so we will probably see the the same thing.  Hibbert wasn’t contributing much anyway.  We have a live dog and we are going to ride it.

Play one unit on Atlanta +6.5

Bonus Play – Grizzlies without Randolph and a hobbled PG Conley at best.  May not even have him.  This will be the days of Thunder.  Play one half unit on Oklahoma City

OVER 198.5 Dallas / San Antonio

Short and Sweet.  3 of the 5 games have went over the number.  Dallas will pull out all the stops, and when Dallas runs the floor and guns it, they are much better as a team and stand a better chance of winning this elimination game.  That’s the bottom line here.  I see 206 on my power ratings, and that is over a 7+ point overlay.

Play 1 Unit on the Over. 

LA Clippers -1.5

I like LA better away from home and the distractions and since they got over the hump I like them to close this out, they are the better team and with Curry inconsistent and the defense of Golden St nonexistent, I am all over the Clips with less than 1 bucket to get it done on the road tonight.  The death of Sterling’s son has no impact, he was not involved with the team.

Play 2 Units on the Clippers  

Toronto -3 to 3.5

The road dog in this series is 3-0-1 ATS.  I expect that trend to switch tonight as we have a young team, at home who is hungry.  The age of the Nets is of concern here against the youth of the Raptors and I think that shows tonight.  The Raptors just won by 8 at Brooklyn and they are playing the better defense and although they do not have a dominant home record for the season, home court tonight in a Game 5 scenario with basically a 3 pointer to lay is line value in my opinion. 

Play 1 Unit on Toronto

Bulls / Wizards OVER 182.5

I have been on a totals play in this series 3 times and cashed them all and it is apparent that the Vaunted Bulls defense cannot stop the Wiz from scoring.  ALL 4 have went OVER and the oddsmakers have actually adjusted this down.  This is a HUGE game for both teams, expect all the stops to be pulled, and the total is in play here.  In the playoffs, the Bulls last 8 playoff games in the quarterfinals have all went OVER!

Play 1 Unit on the Over

BONUS PLAY – Warrior’s +6.  LA in a tailspin, going to take the points.  A team wins by 21 and then is a 6 point pup?  Really??  Play a half unit bonus play on the Warriors of Golden State

Miami -8

Real simple – Elimination Game for Charlotte who has no answer, lost 20 something straight to the Heat and Jefferson is doubtful and he is their leading scorer.  The Bobcat Bench produced 4 points in the last game (deplorable), and with Jefferson limited or out they stand NO CHANCE here.  The Heat Bench put out 31 in the last game and James is on a roll big time.  Charlottes vaunted defense in a tailspin.  Look for a blowout closer tonight from Miami. 

Play 1 Unit on Miami

Chicago at Washington Total 182.5

These two have gone over the total in all of their playoff games.  Vegas has only adjusted the line by a point or so each time.  The Wizards pull out all the stops today and this total goes over again.  This is worthy of a 2 Dime Top Play

Play two units on this Top Play Over 182.5

Over 188 Miami / Charlotte
 
Charlotte was deplorable from the floor in Game 2 and LeBron is putting up 29 ppg and Wade 19 in this series to date and Miami is clicking on all cylinders.  The Bobcats are known for defense but it is apparent that Miami who has beaten the Bobcats 18 straight times is not a good matchup for the home team and the OVER is 5-0 ATS the last 5 Meetings
 
Play 1 Unit on the Over

San Antonio -3.5 - HALF UNIT - Cannot count out the best team on the road in the NBA off a loss where they fell apart in Game 2 here.  Look for the Spurs to bounce back in a high scoring game, as Dallas will try to press and I expect Parker and Duncan to have a better game this go around. 

Over 182 Washington / Chicago
 
The totals from the first two games were 195 and 200 and Oddsmakers have adjusted this line up 2 points from the last game.  The Bulls cannot stop with their vaunted defense, Washington's attack and without scoring 95+ the Bulls cannot win a game here.  This is a Huge game for Chicago and they will pull out all the stops, and Washington's impressive 107 ppg their last 5 will continue. 
 
Play 1 Unit on the OVER

LA Clippers -1.5

Golden St got a dose of reality in game 2 and I think it continues here in their home opener.  A 40 point loss does show you when LA shows up, the vast difference between these 2 teams and I will lay a short number with the better team, on a short road trip.

Play 1 Unit on the Clippers

Memphis +2

If you watch closely OK City is overrated.  Oddsmakers BEGGING to lay it with them here, Memphis is capable of beating them in this series as Durant and Westbrook are OK City’s only scorers.  I like Memphis, I like their defense, they are a pesky and physical team and Randolph is a stud.  They dominated the paint in the last game and while Durant is going to have his 30+ a game, I like the fact that OK City is averaging the same amount of points scored as allowed in their last 5.  HUGE game for Memphis off a win, I am taking them here.  Thunder 3-11 ATS in this series and 1-6 ATS on the road against a team with a winning record.

Play 1 Unit on Memphis

Atlanta +2

Whole world will be on Indiana, Atlanta is not all that tough at home but in this spot off a brutal; beat down and poor shooting, I will gladly take them here.  I doubt Indiana can match the shooting percentage on the road that they enjoyed in their last game, zig zag theory in play here, taking the Hawks.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

Houston -6

Zig Zag Theory here.  Houston lost Game 1 by 2 in OT and I expect them to bounce back convincingly tonight at home.  Harden and Howard scored plenty in Game 1, Linn did a nice job off the bench but 1 player killed them and I do not see Aldridge matching his 46 points tonight.  Houston capable here of a 10+ point win.  Portland only got 7 points from their bench and blew their wad in game 1 and Howard while having 27 points did not play all that well.  Look fro Houston to bounce back.  SU Winners in the Playoffs cover 77% of the time.

Play 2 Units on Houston

Chicago / Washington OVER 181.5

Like the offense of the Wiz here, the vaunted Bulls defense gave up 102 ppg in game 1 and while I do not see Washington scoring over a 100 this time around, both teams at 90+ here in a shootout.

Play 1 Unit on the OVER

Toronto -4

Zig Zag theory in place here.  Taking a home team who lost Game 1, and with a short number unlike Atlanta for instance, this is manageable and I fully expect the Raptors to make amends for a poor performance and play vastly better defense in this game on Tuesday Night.  The difference in the last game was simple, turnovers, the Raptors had 19 and the Nets just 9.  The Nets only hit 16% from 3 point range and still won, and points off turnovers was the culprit.  I expect a much sharper performance tonight from Toronto.

Play 2 Units on Toronto

Warriors +8

Too many points.  When the Clippers do not play defense and you give a team like Golden State chances to score with their lineup, they will hang tight in these games.  Curry is a madman and can light it up and LA looked lethargic and out of sync in Game 1 and while I expect them to bounce back, the oddsmakers have adjusted this line by basically 1 point with a team who is catching points who is clearly capable of winning any game in this series. Golden State has won 4 out of the last 6 straight up and have the better defense.

Play 1 Unit on Golden State 

Atlanta +8

Pacers laying 8?  Really.  They struggled the last month and the Hawks offense alone will keep them in this one.  Atlanta is scary getting points on the board and you are giving them 8.  Pacers seeding here is not indicative of their recent form late in the season and this series will not come easy.  Atlanta also has a good bench.  Contrarian play but I will grab big points in the playoffs…

Play 2 Units on Atlanta