3* NCAAF Saturday Night SMASH on Stanford +20.5
Stanford has been an excellent investment for quite some time now. It is 36-16-1 against the spread in its last 53 games and 16-6 against the spread since the beginning of last season. It is 16-5-1 against the number in its last 22 road games and 15-5-1 against the spread in its last 21 conference contests.

The Cardinal don

4* SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee +4
Vandy became bowl eligible last week with a one-point win at Ole Miss so it won't have the same sense of urgency as a Tennessee team that needs to win both of its remaining games to punch its bowl ticket.

The Vols have completely owned the Commodores having won each of the last six meetings. Plus, I just don't think Vandy has enough offense to keep up with Tennessee's explosive attack. The Dores are on a 1-8 ATS slide versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 yards or more per play over the last 3 seasons. They have lost these games by an average score of 36.1 to 10.7.

Also, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, provided they are up against an opponent that has won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, are 17-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take Tennessee.

5* NCAAF Game of the Year on Missouri -4
I absolutely love Missouri in this spot. This is its last home game of the season, and it will be extremely motivated by the prospect of becoming bowl eligible. It knows it better take care of business here because winning at Texas A&M in Nov. 24 will be no easy task.

Syracuse is just 1-4 in games played away from home this season, and it finds itself in a major letdown spot following last week's 45-26 home win over the then-undefeated Louisville Cardinals.

The Orange are just 1-8 ATS when playing away from home the last two seasons and have lost these games by an average score of 30.1 to 21.2. They are also on a 4-18 ATS slide on the road in games where they are valued as an underdog of 7.0 points or less. They have lost by an average score of 28.1 to 16.2 in this situation.

The Tigers held on to win at Tennessee last week but gave up 585 yards and 48 points. That poor effort actually bodes well for us because it will motivate a typically good defensive team to show up this week. The Tigers rank a respectable 35th in the nation in total defense with 353.3 yards allowed per game, and they are 24-3 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. This trend is already 2-0 ATS this season as the Tigers have won by an average of 13.5 points and held the opposition to an average of 15.0 points in these two. Lay the points as the Tigers show up in a big way in front of their home fans.

4* Big Ten Game of the Week on Ohio State +3
The Buckeyes have won their games by an average of 16.0 points, and they have wins over Michigan State and Nebraska

3* Saturday Afternoon Delight on Clemson -16.5
The Tigers are tearing it up. They are 9-1 and have won six in a row by an average of 25.2 points. They are 8-2 against the spread on the season and are a perfect 7-0 ATS in conference play.

Clemson is unbeaten at home where it is 5-0 with a 26.2-point averaging margin of victory. NC State, meanwhile, is just 2-3 on the road this season and 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games. The Wolfpack are on a 0-6 ATS slide when playing on the road with six days

3* NCAAF *Friday Night Feast* on Florida International +2
The Golden Panthers enter with some much-needed momentum as they ended a seven-game losing streak with a 28-20 victory at South Alabama in their last game. They will be lacking no confidence Friday night as they go up against a team they defeated 41-7 last year.

Florida Atlantic is one of the weakest offensive teams in the country. It ranks 108th in both scoring and total offense with 20.1 points and 327.9 yards per game. The Golden Panthers have better numbers in both areas. They rank 82nd in total offense with 381.2 yards per game and 88th in scoring with 24.9 points per game.

The fact the Owls enter off a win bodes well for us. That

3* NCAAF SMASH on North Carolina -3
Virginia has been a terrible investment this season. It is just 1-9 against the spread in its 10 games. It has especially been a bad investment at home where it is 0-6 against the spread on the season.

The Cavaliers defeated Miami 41-40 last week, but they are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games following a win. The Tar Heels fell 68-50 to Georgia Tech last week, but they are 5-1 against the number in their last six games following a loss. It is also worth noting that they are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home.

North Carolina has had the upper hand in the series recently. It has won the past two meetings both straight up and against the spread. It won last season

3* NCAAF SMASH on Toledo +10.5
Northern Illinois won last season

4* NCAAF *BEST BET* on Ohio +6
Prior to last season

4* Pac-12 Power Play on USC -9
USC is 3-1 at home where its only loss was a 62-51 defeat to third-ranked Oregon, who defeated Arizona State 43-21. Its three home wins have come by an average of 33.7 points with each coming by at least 18 points.

Arizona State has hit a rough patch. It has lost three in a row straight up and against the spread since going 5-1 straight up and 5-0-1 against the spread in its first six games. Late season swoons are nothing new to Sun Devil fans. Their team is 1-8 against the spread in its last nine games in the second half of the season and 0-5 against the spread in its last five November contests.

Arizona State has also been a poor investment on the road and in conference play. It is just 2-5-1 against the spread in its last eight road games and 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 conference contests. It is an especially poor 9-24-2 against the spread in its last 35 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

The Trojans have flexed their muscles nearly every year in this matchup for over a decade. They have won 11 of the past 12 meetings. Because of their dominance, last season

5* NCAAF Game of the Week on Stanford -4.5
The Cardinal have won three in a row with each of these wins coming by at least seven points. They are 5-0 this season at home where they have won by an average of 12.0 points. Four of these wins have come by at least six points.

Stanford has been a terrific investment. It is 15-6 against the spread in all games dating back to the start of last season. It easily covered the 27.5-point spread last week with a 48-0 win at Colorado. This victory is significant because the Cardinal are a perfect 11-0 ATS following a win by 28 points or more the last three seasons. They have won these games by an average of 28.2 points.

Stanford is also on a 7-0 ATS run off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival and a 9-0 ATS run after a game in which it had a turnover margin of +2 or better.

It is also worth noting that the Cardinal are 8-0 ATS all-time under coach Shaw after scoring 42 points or more in their last game. They have by an average of 22.8 points in this situation.

Stanford is 2-0 straight up and against the spread versus Oregon State the past two seasons. It won 38-13 as a 20-point favorite at Oregon State last season. It won 38-0 as a 14-point favorite at home in the 2010 meeting. The home team has covered the spread in four of the past five meetings. Lay the points.

4* Big Ten Game of the Week on Michigan -11
The Wolverines are 4-0 this season at home where they have won by an average of 25.7 points. They are also 4-1 in conference action this season. These four wins have come by an average of 25.0 points. Their only conference defeat came at Nebraska, who also defeated Northwestern in Evanston.

Michigan has had Northwestern

3* Big East Best Bet on Cincinnati -10.5
This is a complete mismatch as Temple does not have the offense to keep pace.

The Owls rank 119th in the country in total offense with just 296.2 yards per game while the Bearcats rank 32nd with 453.5 yards per game.

Temples offensive struggles are significant because teams headed up by Butch Jones are 7-0 ATS all-time versus poor offensive teams that averaging 310 yards or fewer per game. Jones' teams have won these games by an average score of 46.3 to 15.7.

The Bearcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a losing record. Lay the points.

3* SEC SMASH on South Carolina -14
South Carolina is the superior team. It has had a bye week to put the loss of Marcus Lattimore behind, and I fully expect it to take care of business on its home field here.

Arkansas has won the last three meetings in the series so the Gamecocks won't be lacking any motivation.

The fact South Carolina enters off a win is huge. That's because it is 6-0 ATS this season following 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. It has won these games by an average score of 37.0 to 12.2.

It is also worth noting that Arkansas is 0-6 ATS this season after playing a game at home. It has lost by an average score of 37.3 to 18.8 in this situation.

Lastly, the Gamecocks are 20-3 ATS under coach Steve Spurrier after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game. Lay the points.

3* NCAAF *Friday Night Feast* on Pittsburgh -3.5
Since opening the season with a pair of duds against Youngstown State and Cincinnati, the Panthers have been a quality investment. They are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games and easily covered as a 16.5-point underdog at Notre Dame last week. With that cover, the Panthers improved to 4-0 ATS in their last 4 November contests.

Connecticut has gone the other way since winning three of its first five. It has lost each of its last four games by an average of 14.0 points and is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games.

The fact Pitt checks in off a straight up loss bodes well for backers. That

3* ACC Game of the Week on Florida State -14
The Seminoles are 8-1. Their only blemish is a 17-16 loss at NC State in a game they led 16-0 at the half. That

3* NCAAF SMASH on Ohio -3

The Bobcats are 8-1 on the season and six of their victories have come by at least four points. They are a perfect 5-0 at home where they have won by an average of 21.0 points. Each of their home wins have come by six points or more.

Ohio has taken care of business against good teams. In fact, it is 5-0 ATS in its last five games versus teams that have a winning record. Bowling Green, on the other hand, is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games versus a team with a winning record.

The Falcons have been offensively challenged. They rank 93rd in the country in scoring with 23.0 points per game and 76th in total offense with 383.4 yards per game.

The Falcons have been very dependent on their running game, which averages 169.7 yards per contest. Their dependence on the run could backfire here against an Ohio stop unit that has a solid run defense. The Bobcats rank 38th in the country with only 135.7 rushing yards allowed per game.

I don't believe the Falcons, who rank 83rd in passing offense with 213.8 yards per game, are good enough to beat Ohio through the air.

Ohio likes to run the football too, and it runs it better than Bowling Green. The Bobcats rank 19th in the nation with 220.8 rushing yards per game.

Bowling Green has a good run defense (13th in the nation with 104.2 yards per game allowed), but Ohio has been able to get the job done against such defenses. The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Solich in home games versus good rushing defenses that allow 120 rushing yards or less per game. The Bobcats have won by an average of 4.3 points in this situation.

The Bobcats have won their last three against the Falcons by an average of 10.7 points. Lay the number.

3* NCAAF SMASH on Toledo -6.5
The Rockets have won eight in a row since losing their season opener 24-17 in overtime at Arizona. Their winning streak is very significant. Consider that home favorites matched up against a conference opponent following 7 or more consecutive wins are 82-38 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 24.2 points. This system is 7-2 ATS this season.

Toledo is 5-0 in MAC play and has won these games by an average of 11.4 points. It is 5-2 ATS in its last seven conference games dating back to last season.

The Rockets won last season

4* Big Ten Game of the Week on Nebraska -2
The Spartans can't be trusted at home, where they are on a 0-5 ATS slide, this week because of how poor they are on offense.

Michigan State is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. It ranks 111th in scoring offense with 19.2 points per game. It ranks 97th in total offense with 360.3 yards per game. It won

3* Big 12 SMASH on West Virginia -6.5
Motivated by back-to-back blowout defeats and having had a bye week to prepare, I expect the Mountaineers to show up in a big way.

I'm confident West Virginia will pass TCU silly.
Led by quarterback Geno Smith, WVU has done most of its damage through the air. It ranks third in the country in passing offense with 352.0 yards per game. Smith has completed 74.2 percent of his passes for 2,414 yards with 26 touchdowns and two interceptions. He should see continued success against a defense that ranks 65th against the pass with 234.2 yards allowed per game.

The Horned Frogs have allowed an average of 322.7 passing yards per game the past three weeks in matchups with Baylor, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. This is significant because the Mountaineers are 4-0 this season when they have over 300 yards of offense through the air and have won these games by an average of 20.5 points. All four of these came by at least seven points.

The Horned Frogs have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games. They are also on a 1-5 against the spread slide versus conference opponents.

3* ACC Game of the Week on NC State -9.5
Motivated by last week's disappointing performance at North Carolina, look for NC State to bounce back strong against lowly Virginia, who has lost 6 in a row.

The numbers speak to how pathetic Virginia has been. The Cavaliers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall,0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record.

The fact NC State enters off a loss plays right into our hands as it is 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss. The Wolfpack are also a reliable 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 home games.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the Cavaliers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in North Carolina State. The Pack won last season's meeting by 14 on the road, and I expect them to roll again here.

4* Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma -11
The Sooners lost to Notre Dame last week, but that won't keep me off them here. They have been a phenomenal investment in bounce back spots at 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a loss.

The Sooners are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. These trends show further how successful Oklahoma is following lackluster efforts.

The Sooners have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 against Iowa State. It is also worth noting that they have won 13 in a row in the series. 11 of these wins came by more than 11 points.

The Cyclones are only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record. They would have enough trouble slowing down Oklahoma if they were completely healthy, but that isn't the case. They will be without star linebacker Jack Knott, who leads the Big 12 with 79 tackles. He's likely done for the season with a shoulder injury.

5* Big East Game of the Month on Cincinnati -4
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect Cincy to bounce back strong against a team it has owned.

The Bearcats have won 6 of their last 7 against Syracuse with the 6 wins coming by an average of 16.5 points. All 6 came by at least 6 points.

The Bearcats are 4-0 at home this season where they are winning by an average of 27.5 points. Consider that the Orange are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

The Bearcats are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games while the Orange are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games.

The Bearcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall while the Orange are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Orange are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games while the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Lay the points.

5* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Cal -4
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats to Stanford and Utah, and further fueled by three straight losses to Washington, expect Cal to play some inspired football tonight.

The Huskies have been a dead fade on the road. They are 0-3 on the highway this season with losses of 38, 31 and 35 points and are on a 0-7 ATS slide on the road dating back to last season.

The fact Cal has been blown out in its last two isn't a bad thing. Consider that it is on a 10-2 ATS run following consecutive losses of 10 points or more to conference rivals.

The fact Washington enters off a narrow three-point win over Oregon State also bodes well for us. After all, it is just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following a close win by three points or less over a conference rival. It has lost by an average of 7.2 points in this situation.

The Golden Bears have won three of their last four home games against the Huskies with the three wins coming by an average of 31.7 points. It is also worth noting that the home has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings. Lay the points.

3* NCAAF Thursday Night SMASH on Ohio -16.5
After their bid for an undefeated season was ended last week, expect the Bobcats to take out their frustrations all over the lowly Eastern Michigan Eagles.

The Eagles are just 1-7 on the season, and their seven losses have come by an average of 19.3 points.

Ohio has won 4 straight and 7 of its last 8 against Eastern Mich. It is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 at home in the series. These 4 wins have come by an average of 17.3 points and the last three have come by an average of 20.7 points. This is one trend I'm not about to go against, especially with the Bobcats being at home and very motivated.

Eastern Michigan is one of the worst teams in the country on both sides of the football. It ranks 116th in total defense (490.9 ypg allowed) and 103rd in total offense (336.1 ypg). It also rank 114th in scoring defense (37.5 ppg allowed) and 98th in scoring (21.9 ppg).

Ohio is far superior. It ranks 33rd in total offense with 450.1 yards per game and 63rd in total defense with 397.8 yards allowed per contest. It

4* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Oklahoma -10
Notre Dame is 7-0 but I'm not sold. Neither are the books judging by the line.

The Fighting Irish have a good defense, but they are offensively challenged. They rank 77th in scoring (25.9 ppg) and 73rd in total offense (387.9 ypg).

Oklahoma is a more complete team. It is far superior on offense, ranking 5th in scoring (44.7 ppg) and 17th in total offense (488.2 ypg).

While Notre Dame's defensive numbers are slightly better, Oklahoma has posted impressive defensive numbers while playing against better offenses. The Sooners rank 12th in scoring defense (15.3 ppg allowed) and 15th in total defense (301.7 ypg allowed). They have gone up against Kansas State, Texas and Texas Tech - teams all currently ranked in the top 11 in scoring. Notre Dame has gone up against Michigan and Miami - teams not even currently ranked in the top 50 in scoring.

Oklahoma will have no trouble slowing down Notre Dame's offense. The Irish, on the other hand, will encounter some difficulty against the best offensive attack they've seen.

Oklahoma is 13-3 ATS all-time under Coach Bob Stoops as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. It has won by an average score of 40.1 to 14.8 in this situation.

It is also 10-2 ATS all-time under Stoops in home games versus excellent ball control teams that average 32 or more minutes of possession time per game. They have won by an average score of 42.7 to 13.9 in this situation. Lay the points.

5* Big 12 Game of the Year on Baylor +3
Motivated by three consecutive defeats, expect Baylor to take out its frustrations on an Iowa State squad it destroyed 49-26 last season.

Iowa State is 1-3 in Big 12 play but could easily be 0-4 if TCU hadn't handed it the football five times. The Cyclones were outgained 455-350 in that game. In fact, they've been outgained by over 100 yards in each of their Big 12 contests. They were outgained 625-341 in last week's 31-10 loss at Oklahoma State.

Baylor is 0-3 in Big 12 play but two of those losses came by 7 points or less at West Virginia and Texas. The other loss came to TCU in a game in which it had 6 turnovers. I'm throwing that one out because the Bears haven't had more than two turnovers in any other game this season. Baylor put up 700 yards of offense against West Virginia and 607 yards of offense against Texas.

The Bears rank 3rd in the nation in both scoring and total offense with 48.0 points and 574.2 yards per game. They are No. 1 in passing offense with 390.7 yards per game.

Iowa State, on the other hand, ranks 103rd in total offense with 342.6 yards per game and 91st in scoring with 23.6 points per game. And, it has been more turnover prone than Baylor.

The Cyclones played about as well as they could in home losses to Texas Tech and Kansas State but came up short because they didn't have enough offense. This trend will continue here.

Kansas State did the Cyclones a favor by keeping the ball on the ground. Baylor won't.

The Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against Iowa State. Cyclones are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Baylor wins this one outright.

4* NCAAF Afternoon Delight on Rutgers -13
The undefeated Scarlet Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and I expect them to keep right on rolling against Kent State.

The Golden Flashes have won have five straight but have done their damage against teams from non-BCS conferences. They were blown out 47-14 at Kentucky in their only game against a BCS conference team this season. That doesn't bode well for Kent State because Kentucky (1-7) isn't very good.

The Rutgers' defense, which ranks 3rd in the nation with 11.3 points allowed per game, should dominate this game. It's significant that Rutgers held Temple to 10 points last week because it is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.

The fact the Scarlet Knights, who rank 3rd in the nation against the run with 69.1 yards allowed per game, have held their last two opponents to 125 rushing yards or less is also significant because they are 6-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games over the last 3 seasons.

Kent State relies on its running game to move the football, but I don't expect it to have much luck on the ground against one of the nation's best run-stuffing units.

Lastly, the Golden Flashes are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games. The Scarlet Knights are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 versus the MAC. Lay the points.

3* Early Annihilator on Pittsburgh -6.5
Pitt picked up a solid 20-6 victory on the road against an inferior opponent (Buffalo) last week, and I expect it to take care of another inferior foe early Saturday.

Pitt holds a 26-8-1 advantage all-time in its series with Temple, and it has won these contests by an average score of 28.3 to 13.8. That's pretty impressive considering the losses are also figured into this average. The Panthers are 6-0 in their last six against the Owls, winning those by an average of 15.0 points.

Temple is fortunate to be 3-3 as it is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. It ranks 120th in the nation in total offense with just 289.5 yards per game. Nothing will come easy for the Owls against a Pitt stop unit that ranks 33rd in total defense.

The Temple defense hasn't even been very good as it ranks 60th nationally with 387.7 yards allowed per contest. It has really struggled against the pass, giving up 234.2 yards per game through the air (71st). I expect a Pitt offense that averages 418.1 yards per game to be too much for Temple, especially through the air where the Panthers average 275.9 yards per game. Lay the points.

3* Early Annihilator on Texas -21
Kansas is completely overmatched here. It was blown 43-0 at Texas last season and last year's Longhorns weren't as good as this year's.

Texas is 9-0 in its last nine games against Kansas, winning those by an average of 31.9 points. From the standpoint of the point spread, the Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

In addition, Texas is on a 5-0 ATS run in road games versus teams that have a losing record at home. And, road teams that allowed 42 points or more in their last game that are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a loss by 28 points or more are 64-24 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system is 5-0 ATS this season.

Defense has been an issue for Texas, but Kansas doesn't have an offense that can take advantage. It ranks 117th in the country in scoring with 17.3 points per game. It has been held to an average of 10.3 points in its last four games against Texas. Lay the points.

4* NCAAF *Friday Night Feast* on Cincinnati +4
Cincinnati got caught looking ahead last week and lost to Toledo. That loss adds fuel to the fire as the Bearcats look to continue their dominance of Louisville.

Cincy is 4-0 against the Cardinals the past four seasons and has won these games by an average of 14.0 points. The Bearcats won last season's meeting 25-16 and remain a force to be reckoned with.

Louisville is fortunate to be undefeated as it has been in dog fights with North Carolina, Florida International, Southern Miss and South Florida. The close games with FIU, So. Miss and USF are cause for concern as these teams are a combined 3-19 on the season.

Cincy has long been able to elevate its play against quality opponents. In fact, it is on a 33-12 ATS run versus teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 10.0 points per game or more.

The Cardinals have been a poor investment at home where they are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19. It is also worth noting that the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Bearcats are on a 4-1 ATS run at Louisville. Take the points.

3* NCAAF SMASH on Air Force +3
Nevada, who is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games, has been overvalued all season. That remains the case tonight.

It wouldn't be wise to lay any amount of points with Nevada right now, especially on the road, considering two of its last three games have ended up in overtime. The Wolf Pack are just 1-6 ATS as a favorite this season.

Nevada has been putting up a lot of yards but is 0-6 ATS since the beginning of last season after gaining 475 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games. It also has come up short in games odds makers expect to be high scoring.

Consider that Nevada is 0-6 ATS since the beginning of last season when the total is greater than or equal to 63. It has lost these games by an average score of 33.4 to 30.6.

The Wolf Pack are also on a 0-5-1 ATS slide versus teams with a winning record.

Lastly, plays against a road team that has failed to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, provided it has won 60% or more of its games on the season, are 59-26 ATS since 1992. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the home dog.

3* ACC Game of the Week on Clemson -11.5
Clemson is coming off a big win over Virginia Tech, but I don't foresee a letdown from the Tigers, who needed to come from 14 points down to beat Wake Forest last season. That game assures us the Demon Deacons will have Clemson's full attention.

A minus-three turnover margin by Clemson was the only reason last season's meeting was close as the Tigers outgained the Demon Deacs 522-317. Turnovers haven't been an issue for Clemson this season as they've committed one or none in five of seven games and no more than two in any game.

Clemson has dominated the series having won three in a row and 14 of the last 18. Prior to last season, Clemson had won consecutive games over Wake by a minimum of 20 points.

The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and have won their last three by 14 points or more. The Tigers are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The Demon Deacons are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 versus a team with a winning record. Lay the points.

3* Sun Belt SMASH on Louisiana-Lafayette -4
The home team has dominated this series, and I expect home field to be the difference yet again. The home team has won 12 of the last 13 meetings, and Louisiana-Lafayette is a perfect 7-0 at home during this span. These 7 wins have come by an average of 8.6 points.

The biggest concern for Lafayette is its pass defense, which ranks 117th in the country with 292.5 yards allowed per game. Arkansas State has completed a respectable 62.4 percent of its passes this season, but the Ragin' Cajuns have never lost to such teams under coach Hudspeth. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus solid passing teams with a completion rate of 58 percent or better and have defeated these teams by an average score of 36.3 to 27.2.

The fact Lafayette averages a strong 6.1 yards per game also bodes well for us as the Red Wolves are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games versus teams that average 5.9 yards per play or more. The Wolves have lost these contests by an average score of 37.4 to 14.0.

While I'm confident Lafayette can survive Arkansas State's passing attack, I don't think the Red Wolves will have an answer for the Lafayette's running attack. The Red Wolves rank 105th in the nation against the run with 206.3 yards allowed per game, and the Ragin' Cajuns are 4-0 this season when rushing for more than 110 yards. They should be able to surpass that mark as Arkansas State has given up 132 rushing yards or more in six of its seven games.

The Ragin' Cajuns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games in this series. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Kent State -3.5
Kent State has rattled off 4 consecutive victories, and I expect it to keep right on rolling at home against a Western Michigan squad that hasn't been the same without Alex Carder. We're talking about a QB that completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 3,873 yards with 31 touchdowns and 14 interceptions last season.

The Golden Flashes have been a quality investment. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 at home, 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games on fieldturf, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

The home team and the favorite have had the advantage when these two lock horns. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the favorite is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Lay the points.

3* Non-Conference Game of the Week on Pittsburgh -11
Pitt has underachieved to this point and has only shown what it is capable of with a 35-17 victory over Virginia Tech. After back-to-back losses to a pair of Big East foes, the Panthers will take great pride in beating the tar out of struggling Buffalo team that has lost 4 in a row by an average of 18.0 points.

Right away, I like the fact that road teams that allowed 42 points or more in their last game, provided they are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a loss of 28 or more points, are 62-24 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season.

Going right along with this, we find that Pitt is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in its previous game.

Buffalo has shot itself in the foot with turnovers and penalties during its slide. This bodes well for us as Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons versus mistake prone teams that average 60 penalty yards or more per game. It was won these games by an average score of 26.1 to 12.4.

The Panthers defeated the Bulls 35-16 last season and have won each of the 3 all-time meetings by 11 points or more.

The Panthers are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a losing record while the Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a losing record. The Bulls are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 versus the Big East. Lay the points.

5* MAC Game of the Year on Ball State -3
I'm fading the struggling Central Michigan Chippewas here as they go up against a Ball State squad that has been playing well.

Central Michigan has turn in three straight disappointing performances since its upset win at Iowa, and I expect it to get whacked again.

Ball State has won 2 in a row and 3 of the last 4 in the series. It has also won it last 2 at Central Michigan.

The Chippewas have been a terrible investment as they are just 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have been golden at 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

The Chippewas are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games, 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Central Mich is 0-6 ATS the last 2 seasons when playing against a team with a winning record. It has lost by an average score of 44.7 to 23.0 in this situation.

The Chipps are 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Dan Enos after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games. They have lost by an average score of 34.5 to 25.0 in this situation. They are even 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Enos after a game in which they didn't force a single turnover. They have lost by an average score of 34.8 to 20.7 in this situation.

Lastly, the Chippewas are 0-6 ATS after failing to cover the number in 4 out of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points.

4* Early Annihilator on Rutgers -5.5
Rutgers is off to a 6-0 start, and each of its victories have come by at least 8 points. I expect it to remain undefeated while covering the number in the process Saturday.

Temple is not the same team it was a season ago when it won 9 games. It has managed to beat struggling S. Florida and Connecticut teams the past two weeks, but it will meet its match here. Temple's anemic offense, which ranks 115th in the country with 309.2 yards per game, will struggle to move the football against a Rutgers stop unit that ranks 3rd in the nation in scoring defense with 11.5 points allowed per game and 19th in total defense with 317.0 yards allowed per contest.

Temple has been overly reliant on its running attack, which averages 176.8 yards per game, and that will haunt them here as Rutgers ranks 2nd in the country against the run, holding its foes to only 60.8 yards per game.

The Scarlet Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

The Scarlet Knights are also on an 8-2-1 ATS run versus teams with a winning record while the Owls are on a 2-5 ATS slide versus winning teams. Lay the points.

4* Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State -14.5
This game is all about revenge for Oklahoma State, who blew a 24-7 lead and a shot at the BCS Championship in a 37-31 overtime loss at Iowa State last season. You know what they say about paybacks.

I have no doubt Oklahoma State will want this game more because of last season's turn of events. And, the Cyclones won't have an answer for Oklahoma State's offense, which ranks No. 1 in the nation with 601.4 yards per game. An Iowa State offense that ranks 101st with 342.8 yards per game won't be able to keep pace.

The fact the Cowboys rank 9th in the nation in rushing with 263.2 yards per game is significant because Iowa State is only 9-22 ATS ATS in its last 31 road games versus good rushing teams averaging 200 rushing yards or more per game. It has lost by an average score of 43.0 to 18.2 in this situation.

Last week's 6-point home loss to K-State is also significant because the Cyclones are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games following a close loss of 7 points or less to a conference rival. They have lost by an average score of 38.9 to 21.1 in this situation.

Oklahoma State is on a 13-3 ATS run at home against teams with a win percentage of 60% to 75%. It is on a 38-17 ATS run as a favorite and a 21-10 ATS run as a home favorite. The Cowboys are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss.

Lastly, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Lay the points.

4* NCAAF *Friday Night Feast* (ESPN) on Syracuse -4.5
Since Paul Pasqualoni took over as Connecticut head man, fading the Huskies in the road underdog role has never lost. The Huskies are 0-6 ATS as a road dog under his watch and have lost these games by an average score of 31.0 to 18.5.

Furthermore, teams headed up by Pasqualoni are just 1-13 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less the last two decades. His teams have lost by an average score of 31.1 to 14.9 in this situation.

The Orange are a better team than their record indicates. They put up 41 points in a one-point loss to 6-1 Northwestern and scored 29 points against 5-1 USC. They also played Rutgers a lot tougher than Connecticut did. The Orange fell to the Scarlet Knights 23-15 while the Huskies lost 19-3.

Revenge is also an angle here as Syracuse has lost 5 straight in the series.

I just don't see Connecticut being able to come up with enough offense to cover this number. It is one of the weakest offensive teams in the country, ranking 109th in total offense with 320.6 yards per game. Syracuse ranks 40th with 445.5 yards per game.

The home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings, and the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Lay the points.

3* NCAAF SMASH on Houston -6
Houston isn't as good as it was a year ago when it defeated SMU 37-7. However, SMU isn't as good either. Plus, the Cougars are the team in much better form.

Houston has won three in a row convincingly, while SMU has lost three of four and was just defeated by a Tulane team that is among the worst in college football.

Houston has won six in a row against SMU with all six of those coming by at least six points, and I expect it to continue its dominance in the series.

This is the month Houston has typically got it going as it is 7-0 ATS in its last seven October games. It is also on an 8-0 ATS run versus teams that have a losing record.

Houston's recent offensive outbursts also bode well for us. Consider that the Cougars are on a 7-0 ATS run after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a losing home record. Lay the points.

3* NCAAF SMASH (ESPN2) on Louisiana-Lafayette -3.5
Louisiana-Lafayette has won 5 in a row against North Texas by an average of 12.6 points, and I expect it to continue its dominance in the series tonight.

The Ragin' Cajuns have been an awesome investment on the road where they are on a 13-3 ATS run. They are on an 8-1 ATS run on the road against conference opponents.

The fact ULL failed to cover the spread in its last game bodes extremely well for us. That's because it is 10-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons. It is also 9-0 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive overs the last 3 seasons (stat excludes pushes).

In addition, plays against a home team that allowed 37 points or more in its last game, provided it is matched up against an opponent that has led its last 2 games by 14 points or more at the half, are 27-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.

The Mean Green are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 20 points.

North Texas is extremely reliant on its running game, but it will find rushing yards hard to come by against a defense that has held 4 of its 5 opponents to 60 rushing yards or less.

The Ragin' Cajuns have struggled against the pass, but the Mean Green don't have the passing game to take advantage. We'll lay the points.

3* Saturday Night SMASH on Texas A&M -8
Louisiana Tech has enjoyed a nice start, but it gets a harsh dose of reality here. It is yet to see a team as talented as Texas A&M, whose only loss is a 3-point set back to a Florida team that's 4th in the country.

The Aggies are better than the Bulldogs at nearly every spot on the field, and that's always been the case. Texas A&M is 10-0 all-time versus Louisiana Tech, winning these by an average of 29.7 points.

The Bulldogs are also on an 0-13 slide versus ranked opponents.

While Tech has an explosive offense, its defense has been atrocious. The Bulldogs rank 123rd in the country in total defense with 531.0 yards allowed per game. A Texas A&M offense that ranks 12th nationally with 516.8 yards per game should be able to move the ball at will.

A&M's defense, which only gives up 363.6 yards per contest, will come up with a lot more stops than the Bulldogs in this one. Lay the points.

3* Big 12 Game of the Week on West Virginia -3.5
The Mountaineers won at Texas last week, and I expect them to take care of business here against a Texas Tech squad that isn't as talented as the Longhorns.

Texas Tech has good defensive numbers, but it has played a soft schedule with the exception of Oklahoma. It allowed Landry Jones to complete 25 of 40 passes for 259 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions in last week's 21-point home loss to the Sooners. If the Red Raiders couldn't slow down Jones, how are they going to slow down Geno Smith, who has completed 81.4 percent of his throws for 1,996 yards with 24 touchdowns and no picks?

The Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, and the Red Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Also, plays on road favorites after 5 or more consecutive wins, when playing on a Saturday, are 73-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. In other words, it makes sense to ride the hot hand, even on the road. Lay the points.

5* Mountain West Conference Game of the Year on Boise State -7
Boise State has owned Fresno State. The Broncos are 6-0 SU and ATS in the last 6 meetings, winning those by an average of 34.3 points.

The Broncos are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run versus Fresno State on the blue turf, winning those by an average of 37.8 points.

Overall, the Broncos are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. And, the favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Much of Fresno State's success this season has stemmed from a defense that has forced 18 turnovers. This opportunistic unit might be a concern except the Broncos are only averaging 1.4 turnovers per game while forcing an average of 3.4. Consider that Boise State is on a 7-0 ATS run against teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers per game. It has won by an average of 30.4 points in this situation.

In addition, plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that check in off 2 consecutive wins against conference rivals, provided they are matched up against an opponent that is coming off a double digit road win, are 37-12 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system is 19-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 6.6 points on average and have lost by an average of 14.8 points.

Boise State isn't as good as it was last season when it defeated Fresno State 57-7 on the road. However, the Bulldogs haven't narrowed the gap enough to deserve this much respect from odds makers. Lay the points.

4* MAC Game of the Week on Toledo -13
This is a complete mismatch. Toledo has rattled off 5 straight wins, with the last 4 coming by double digits, while Eastern Michigan is 0-5 on the season with all of its losses coming by 11 points or more.

Toledo crushed EMU 54-16 last season and 42-7 the year before that. In fact, the Rockets are 5-0 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings with those wins coming by an average of 29.4 points.

The fact Eastern Michigan gave up 41 points at home to Kent State last game is a big concern. That's because the Eagles are 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Ron English in home games after allowing 37 points or more in their last game. They have lost by an average score of 31.7 to 11.7 in this situation.

The Eagles are also 0-6 ATS all-time under coach English in home games after being outgained by 175 total yards or more in their previous game. They have lost by an average score of 30.3 to 15.4 in this situation.

Toledo has struggled in pass defense but Eastern Michigan doesn't have an offense that can take advantage. That's generally been the case as the Eagles are even 0-6 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or higher over the last 3 seasons. The Eagles have lost by an average score of 42.0 to 15.2 in this situation.

The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a losing record. Lay the points.

4* Early Annihilator on Kent State -1.5
Army isn't very good. It's one dimensional on offense, and it's one of the worst defensive teams in the country.

Kent State has won 3 in a row, and 2 of those wins came on the road. So it's very capable of winning at Army, where the Black Knights haven't been very competitive this season.

Army leads the nation in rushing, but it won't be able to run at will on a Kent State defense that has held its opponents to an average of 125.2 yards on the ground.

Army's defense has given up an average of 231.2 rushing yards per game, and it will have trouble slowing down a Kent State rushing attack that averages over 200 yards a contest.

The Golden Flashes will really be able to utilize their speed on the Michie Stadium fieldturf. In fact, they are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf. The Black Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record. The Black Knights are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 versus the MAC and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Lastly, plays on road favorites off 3 consecutive wins against conference rivals, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a losing record, are 28-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the small number.

4* Friday Night Feast on Central Michigan -1.5
Back home following three straight on the road, and motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect Central Michigan to take care of business tonight.

This is a letdown spot for Navy, which is coming off an emotional overtime win over service academy rival Air Force. Freshman QB Keenan Reynolds was able to step in and lead a fourth-quarter rally last week. However, there's not as much pressure when entering a game in which you're behind. He'll feel a lot more nerves tonight as the starter.

Navy is clearly down. It only won five games last season and was shut out at home by San Jose State, a team it scored 24 points on away from home last year. The Midshipmen hadn't been shut out in six years.

Both defenses will have trouble coming up with stops, but Central Michigan's offense has the edge because it is more balanced. Navy has a good rushing attack, but it hasn't been as explosive as we are used to seeing. It's averaging nearly 80.0 yards less on the ground than it did a year ago. The Middies are no threat through the air.

Central Mich owns the most impressive win of these two, a 32-31 win at Iowa. QB Ryan Radcliff completed 26 of 35 passes for 283 yards in that game and often went at Iowa's Micah Hyde, who is an NFL talent. He'll be able to pass Navy silly tonight.

Fading Navy on Friday night has been pure gold as the Midshipmen are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 under the Friday night lights. The Midshipmen have also dropped 7 of their last 8 ATS versus MAC opponents. Take the Chipps.

3* Sun Belt Game of the Week on Western Kentucky -2.5
The Hilltoppers are rolling and we'll hop on this money train tonight.

Consider that Western Kentucky is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Taggart when it checks into a game following 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread. WKU is also 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Taggart in road games in weeks 5 through 9. It has won these contests by an average score of 31.3 to 20.5.

In addition, the Hilltoppers are 9-0 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons, 10-0 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons, 8-0 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons, 9-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons, 10-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons, 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better over the last 2 seasons and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record.

The Hilltoppers racked up 338 yards on the ground in last season's 41-18 win over Troy. The Trojans have remained susceptible to the run as they rank 92nd in the nation with 188.8 rushing yards allowed per game. WKU is averaging 213.0 rushing yards per game, and I expect it to run all over the Trojans on its way to another victory.

4* Big Ten Game of the Week (ABC) on Ohio State -3
It didn't take Urban Meyer long to get the Ohio State program heading in the right direction. His Buckeyes are the best team in the Big Ten, and I expect them to prove it once again Saturday night.

They outgained Michigan State 383-303 in last week's 17-16 upset win on the road and could have won by more had it not been for 3 turnovers.

That win is extremely significant because teams coached by Meyer are 9-0 ATS all-time following an upset win as an underdog. His teams have won by an average score of 35.5 to 14.5 in this situation.

Nebraska is not the same team outside Lincoln. It went 2-2 on the road in the Big Ten last season and could have been 1-3. It struggled immensely in its only road game this season. It gave up 653 yards in a 36-30 at UCLA.

Ohio State flexes its muscles here. Lay the number.

3* Big Ten SMASH (Big Ten Network) on Michigan -3
Michigan has won its last two against Purdue by 11 and 22 points, respectively, and I fully expect it to continue its dominance of the Boilermakers.

These two have played one like opponent, Notre Dame. Purdue played the Fighting Irish to a 3-point game while Michigan played them to a 7-point game. However, Michigan outgained the Irish 299-239 and kept it close despite 6 turnovers. The Boilermakers were outgained 288-376 by the Irish.

The fact Michigan managed more yards on Notre Dame than Purdue and held the Irish to 137 fewer yards than Purdue tells us it is the better team. Denard Robinson is not going to play as bad as he did against Notre Dame this week, and probably not the rest of the season.

Consider that road favorites that have held their opponents to 14 points or less in two straight games, provided they are matched up against a foe that allowed 37 points or more in its last game, are 23-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

4* ACC Game of the Week (ESPN) on Clemson -10
Georgia Tech has dropped its last two, and I don't see it getting back up on the road against a Clemson team that will be hungry to avenge last season's upset loss to the Yellow Jackets. When Tech last visited, it was handed a 27-13 defeat. I expect this one to be even worse.

The fact Georgia Tech enters off a 48-29 loss to Middle Tennessee is significant because it is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS loss.

It is also significant that the Jackets gave up 264 yards on the ground last game because they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

The Yellow Jackets are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Clemson is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the country with averages of 510.8 yards and 40.2 points per game. What makes these numbers even more impressive is the fact that the Tigers do it with balance. They average over 300 yards passing and over 200 yards rushing per game.

Georgia Tech's porous defense, which has been completely shredded the last two weeks, doesn't stand a chance against one of the best offenses in the land. Lay the points.

3* Big 12 Game of the Week (ESPN2) on Oklahoma -5
As if a home loss to Kansas State in its last game isn't enough motivation, Oklahoma was knocked off its No. 1 ranking by these Texas Tech Red Raiders last season. With these losses fueling the fire, and a bye week giving the Sooners extra time to prepare, expect OU to role Saturday afternoon.

Respect is given to the Red Raider's 4-0 start, but I'm not sold as they haven't been nearly as dangerous since Mike Leach was forced out. Consider that they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Oklahoma's poor performance on both sides of the football in its last game actually plays in our favor here as we have gotten a better number because of it. Plus, the Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

The Sooners have been extremely reliable under coach Bob Stoops following any conference loss. They are 17-5 ATS under Stoops following a loss to a Big 12 foe and have won in this situation by an average score of 38.1 to 10.2.

There's more talent on the Oklahoma, and that talent should be hungrier and more prepared than Texas Tech this week.

5* Big East Game of the Year (ESPNU) on Rutgers -7.5
One thing you don't want to do is bet Connecticut when it's coming off a win. That's because it is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Paul Pasqualoni after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins.

Furthermore, teams headed up by Pasqualoni are just 8-25 ATS in the road underdog role since 1992.

Another thing you haven't wanted to do is back the Huskies against Top 25 opponents. That's because they have lost their last 7 against such foes and have only recorded 1 win against the Top 25 in 18 tries since becoming a Division I team in 2000.

Rutgers is 4-0, which is impressive considering it has played 3 of those on the road. It defeated South Florida by 10 and Arkansas by 9 away from home, and both of these programs have more talent that UConn.

The Scarlet Knights are now home and they've had a bye week to gear up for this one. That's significant because they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye. It's also significant that they were upset at UConn last season because it assures us they'll be plenty motivated.

The Huskies have really struggled on offense as they haven't been able to get their running game going consistently. They'll have trouble getting much of anything between the tackles against a Rutgers defense that leads the country with just 62.5 rushing yards allowed per game.

UConn won't be able to get enough going offensively to keep this one within the number. Lay the points.

3* NCAAF *Friday Night Feast* on BYU -7
So much of Utah State's success has stemmed from its running game, but yards on the ground will be tough to come by tonight.

BYU ranks second in the nation against the run with 63.2 yards allowed per game. This is significant because Utah State is on a 0-7 ATS slide versus teams with excellent rushing defenses that allow 90 rushing yards per game or fewer. It has lost by an average score of 42.1 to 10.4 during this skid.

It is also worth noting that the Aggies are on a 0-7 ATS slide when entering a contest off four covers in their last 5 games. In other words, recent history tells us now's the time to go against Utah State.

Also, consider that BYU is 7-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average score of 41.0 to 14.7 in this situation. It is on a 6-0 ATS run after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in its last game.

The Cougars are even on a 9-0 ATS run after outrushing their last opponent by 150 or more yards and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 versus a team with a winning record.

It's also worth mentioning that BYU is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 home games, and the home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Lay the points.

3* NCAAF Thursday Night SMASH (ESPN) on Utah +14
Motivated by an embarrassing 37-7 loss at Arizona State and having had extra time to prepare, expect the Utes to give the Trojans a game tonight.

USC has played two games away from home. It lost one of those to Stanford and defeated Syracuse by just 13.0 points in the other. In other words, it has looked pretty human outside its home field.

Utah has struggled on the road as well but is 2-0 at home with an upset win over BYU.

The Utes will be lacking no confidence tonight as they gave the Trojans all they wanted and more on the road last year. The final score read 23-14 but the game was much closer than that. Utah had a field goal blocked and returned for a TD as time expired in that game.

Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that were outgained by 225 yards or more in their previous game, provided they return 8 offensive starters or more, including the QB, are 36-10 ATS since 1992.

Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 15.4 points on average but have only lost by an average of 8.9 points. This system is a near-perfect 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.

It is also worth noting that the Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a bye week. Take the points.

5* NCAAF Revenge Game of the Year on Texas Tech -2.5
This game is all about revenge for Texas Tech, which was crushed 41-7 at home by Iowa State last year. The Red Raiders clearly suffered a major letdown following their upset win at No. 1 Oklahoma the previous week. Last year's butt-kicking by the Cyclones assures us that Tech will be ready to go Saturday night.

The fact odds makers have given the Red Raiders the nod as the favorite is significant because the team laying points is on a 6-2 ATS run in this series. It is also worth noting that the Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Texas Tech has been explosive in the early going and has carried the total score over 60 points in each of its last two games as a result. This is important because it is 6-0 ATS under coach Tuberville in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. The Red Raiders have won by an average score of 44.8 to 28.5 in this situation.

The Iowa State defense is sound in the front 7, but its secondary is weak. The Red Raiders have the playmakers to take advantage on the outside. Lay the points as Tech has its revenge.

4* Pac-12 Power Play on Cal -2
Off back-to-back road losses to Ohio State and USC, expect Cal to bounce back strong against an Arizona State team it has owned.

Cal has won 4 straight and 8 of 9 against the Sun Devils, who are just 2-7 ATS in those 9 meeting and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Cal. It is also worth noting that the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

The Golden Bears have been a tremendous investment at home where they are on a 21-10 ATS run. The Sun Devils, meanwhile, have been a poor investment on the road where they are on a 0-4-1 ATS slide.

ASU has shown susceptibility to the run, and I expect that to be its downfall here. It is just 6-18 ATS in its last 24 road games versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 yards or more per carry. They have lost in this situation by an average score of 33.6 to 19.3. Take Cal.

4* ACC Game of the Week (ESPN2) on Clemson -9
Motivated by last week's loss to Florida State, expect Clemson to take its frustrations out on an inferior Boston College squad.

The Tigers won last year's meeting by 22 points and have the potential to win this one by even more as the Eagles don't have the same quality personnel on defense (i.e. Luke Kuechly).

Consider that plays on any team that averages 4.8 yards or more per carry that is matched up against a conference opponent that averages just 3.0-3.5 yards per carry are 68-31 ATS the last 5 seasons, 36-10 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 12.1 points and have won by an average of 17.8.

The Tigers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games, and the Eagles are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games. Lay the points.

3* Non-Conference SMASH on Virginia Tech -7
Virginia Tech has been a terrific investment in this point spread range over the last two decades. It is 38-20 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992 and has won these games by an average score of 29.1 to 17.7. The Hokies are 5-1 ATS all-time under coach Beamer as a neutral field favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

The Bearcats have had a bye week to prepare, but they are a soft 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an off week. They are also a soft 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games versus a team with a winning record.

VA Tech is the better team, and I expect it to prove it in this neutral field battle.

3* Early Line Mistake on Missouri +2.5
The Tigers are coming off a 21-point loss at South Carolina but should not be catching points against a UCF team that went 5-7 last season and hasn't looked very impressive in the early going.

You can count on coach Gary Pinkel having his troops ready to go. In fact, Mizzou is 12-3 ATS under his watch following a loss by 21 points or more. It has won by an average score of 35.4 to 23.1 in this situation. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss.

The Knights held Ohio State and FIU to 155 and 154 yards, respectively, through the air but are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Take the points as Mizzou wins this one outright.

4* NCAAF *Friday Night Feast* (ESPN) on BYU -27
Off back-to-back narrow defeats on the road to a pair of quality opponents, expect BYU to bounce back strong at home against a poor Hawaii team it has owned.

The Cougars have won 8 of their last 9 against the Warriors with each of the last 5 wins coming by double digits.

Hawaii has faced two quality opponents this season and was whacked by both. It lost to USC by 39 and to Nevada by 45.

BYU won last season's meeting by 21 on the road, and I like its chances of winning this one by 30-plus considering its level of motivation, the fact it's at home and the fact it has had 2 extra days to prepare. It's really even more extra prep time than that considering the time Hawaii had to spend traveling.

The BYU defense has been phenomenal. It ranks 7th nationally in total defense (246.0 yards allowed per game) and 13th nationally in scoring defense (12.5 points allowed per game). It has also forced 9 turnovers the past 3 weeks. If it could hold Boise State to 7 points on the road it can pitch a shutout tonight. That's why I like the Cougars laying the points in this spot regardless if QB Riley Nelson plays.

The Cougars haven't given up much of anything on the ground, which is significant because Hawaii is more reliant on its ground game that it has been for years. BYU is 6-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. It is also 6-0 ATS in its last 6 versus the Mountain West.

Also, Hawaii is 0-6 ATS following a conference game over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points.