5* SEC Total of the Year on Georgia/Florida UNDER

I originally leaned towards Georgia and the points, but the more I looked into this, I feel the real value is with the UNDER. One of the big reasons I liked the Bulldogs is I felt they were strong enough defensively to keep Florida's offense in check and getting over a touchdown in a game when neither team figures to score much was great value. However, I'd much rather just take my chances on a low-scoring game and not have to worry about Florida sneaking out a 10-point win on a turnover. 

Florida comes into this game with the 2nd ranked defense in the country and after what we saw last year with this unit, I don't think there's any questioning that it's the real deal. The only game they allowed more than 14 points this season was at Tennessee in which things spiraled out of control in the 2nd half, as they gave up 35 to the Vols after holding them to just 3-points in the first 2 periods. 

Even with that poor showing they come into this game allowing just 3.2 yards/carry against the run and are holding opposing quarterbacks to a mere 37.9% completion rate. Georgia's offense is dependent on their ability to run the ball and Florida is going to load the box and not allow them to beat them on the ground. Very similar to last year, when they held the Bulldogs to just 3 points and 69 yards rushing. 

As for Florida's offense, they are limited and have simply taken advantage of some bad defensive teams. The best defense they have faced all year is Vanderbilt, which ranks 62nd in total defense. Every other team they have faced currently ranks 80th or worse in total defense. Note that Florida only scored 13 points on 236 total yards in that game against the Commodores. 

Now they face a Georgia defense that comes in ranked 20th in total defense. The big key here, is the Bulldogs are at their best against the run. They are 17th in the country, allowing just 111.1 ypg and just 3.5 yards/carry. Florida is only averaging 21.7 ppg in 3 games where they rush for 110 or fewer yards and are averaging 39.0 ppg when in 3 games when they rush for 200 or more. Give me the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Month on Miami -

I really like the value we are catching here with Miami basically at a pick'em on the road against the Fighting Irish. I believe we are getting some exceptional value here on the Hurricanes due to the fact that they come in having lost each of their last 3 and failed to cover in all of them. What you can't overlook is they were all against top level teams in Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia Tech. They arguably should have beat FSU. That loss ended their perfect run to the season. Not surprised to see them come out flat the next week against UNC and then they had to go on the road to face Va Tech on short rest in a nationally televised weekday game. 

I believe we are going to see the Hurricanes come out with one of their best performances of the season against Note Dame, who for whatever reason continues to get way too much respect from the books. The Irish have two wins on the season and those are against Nevada and Syracuse. They just don't see equipped to handle the disappointment of their season already being over in October. 

Miami's offense has really underperformed in their 3 straight losses and I look for them to breakout here against a a bad Notre Dame defense. I know the Irish have held NC State to 10 and Stanford to 17 in their last 2 games, but the game against the Wolfpack was played in a monsoon and they faced the Cardinal without Christian McCaffrey. 

On the flip side of this, I don't think Miami's defense gets the respect it deserves. The 37 points they allowed last week to Va Tech is the only time this season they allowed more than 21 points and again that was on short rest in a horrible spot. Notre Dame has allowed 50 to Texas, 36 to Michigan State and 38 to Duke. Miami comes in with the 24th ranked defense in the country, allowing just 343 ypg and just 4.6 yards/play. 

Notre Dame is 6-20 ATS in their last 26 home games after losing 2 of their last 3 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 20 points or less in their previous game. Take Miami! 

4* NCAAF Situational Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +

I really like the value here with the Bearcats catching over a touchdown against Temple. I just feel like the Owls are way overvalued right now. Temple comes into this game having covered 7 straight since losing their opener at home to Army 13-28 as a 14-point favorite. Cincinnati on the other hand is way undervalued due to the fact that they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. 

I really like the mentality of this Cincinnati team coming into this game. The Bearcats are coming off their best performance of the season in last week's 31-19 home win over East Carolina. The Bearcats put up over 500 yards of total offense and it came with quarterback Gunner Kiel making his first start of the season. Kiel didn't disappoint, throwing for 348 yards and 4 scores and he's back in the starting lineup this week. 

I know the Temple defense comes in ranked 10th in the country against the pass, but a lot of that has to do with some very favorable matchups. Army threw for just 15 yards against them on 5 attempts in the opener. The next week against FCS foe Stony Brook, they went 8 of 20 for 84 yards. They have also faced some bad offenses in SMU and Charlotte. 

Keep in mind that last year the Bearcats torched Temple's defense for 557 yards and that was a much better Owls defense than this year's squad. Cincinnati actually lost that game because they turned it over 5 times (outgained Temple 557 to 296). That's a loss I don't think the Bearcats have forgot and I think they get their revenge here. 

Bearcats are historically a great 2nd half team, as they are 11-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons in the 2nd half. They are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 under Tuberville off a conference win by 10 or more and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 under Tuberville after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Take Cincinnati! 

4* NCAAF Early Bird Total Annihilator on W Virginia/Oklahoma St UNDER

I really like the value here on the total in Saturday's Big 12 showdown between West Virginia and Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers come into this one undefeated and ranked No. 10 in the country and will be getting their biggest test of the year in Oklahoma State, who is 3-1 and still in position to win the Big 12 title. I think the Cowboys are going to take exception to being a home dog against West Virginia and you can count on Boone Pickens Stadium being electric with a Top 10 team coming to town. 

This might not seem like a great under bet give Oklahoma State comes in averaging 41.1 ppg and West Virginia isn't too far behind at 33.0 ppg. However, I don't think either of these offenses are all they are made out to be. West Virginia has played 5 FBS opponents and 4 of those are ranked outside the Top 75 in total defense. The only exception being Kansas State, who they managed just 17 points at home against (only had 3 points going into the 4th quarter). This is also just the second true road game for West Virginia and I think that hurts the offense, especially in this environment. 

Oklahoma State has also benefited from playing some bad defenses to start the year. The Cowboys last 3 games were against Texas, Iowa State and Kansas, who are all ranked 90th or worse in total defense. The two respectable defenses they have faced are Central Michigan and Baylor and they failed to top 30 in both of those games. West Virginia comes in allowing just 17.8 ppg and are really clicking on that side of the ball right now. The past two weeks they held the high-powered offenses of Texas and TCU to a combined 27 points.

Both of these teams have really made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. West Virginia is only allowing a completion percentage of 52.6% on the season and the Cowboys aren't too far behind, allowing just 58.9%. With the wind expected to be blowing around 15-20 mph for most of this game, I think both teams are going to run it a lot. That's going to eat up the clock and cut down on the possessions for both teams.  

UNDER is 17-4 in West Virginia's last 21 conference games, 9-1 in their last 10 against teams who are allowing 250 or more passing yards/game and 7-0 in their last 7 as a road favorite. Take the UNDER! 

4* Navy/USF Friday Night ATS Annihilator on USF - 

After taking a closer look at this one and the line dropping under a touchdown, I think the value here is with the Bulls at home. The betting public is all over Navy after watching them win an cover at home against two of the AAC's best in Houston and Memphis. At the same time, they just watched South Florida get beat by 16 at Temple last Friday as a 6-point favorite. On top of that, Navy won last year's meeting at home 29-17 with 428 rushing yards. Despite all of this, I think USF is the right side here. 

Revenge is huge in college football and you know the Bulls are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after what Navy did to them last year. On top of that, they are going to be pissed with their performance last week against the Owls. With a bye week on deck and this one at home on ESPN2, I think we get one of USF's best efforts of the season. 

On the flip side of this, this isn't a great spot for Navy. The Midshipmen have had quite a 3-week stretch. It started with a road game against rival Air Force and then followed up with two huge home games against Houston and Memphis. Not to mention they have a big lookahead game on deck against Notre Dame next week, which will be played in Jacksonville. 

I'm not saying Navy's option isn't going to have them putting up big numbers on the ground in this one, but I think it comes a lot harder than it did a year ago. I also think the Midshipmen could be forced to throw more than they would like. USF has a dynamic offense that can score points in a hurry and Navy's secondary is vulnerable to big plays through the air. If USF gets a big lead early, this one could get ugly. Keep in mind that all 6 of the Bulls wins this season have come by 15 or more points. 

It's also worth pointing out that USF has a pretty good rushing attack of their own. The Bulls are 11th in the country at 255.5 ypg. Navy is 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons against teams who are averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game. Take South Florida! 

4* NCAAF Situational ATS No Brainer on Georgia Southern + 

These two teams go way back to their FCS days when they were members of the Southern Conference. I think the value is clearly with the Eagles here. The home team has dominated this series of late. Winning each of the last 3 meetings by 18 or more points.

The thing here is the Mountaineers aren’t your typical Sun Belt team no one knows about. Appalachian State played that huge game to open the season against Tennessee. A game they should have won. They also recently won a weekday game at UL-Lafayette 24-0 as a 10.5-point favorite.

The betting public is going to see this line and jump all over the Mountaineers. In fact, I’m showing close to 65% of the action on Appalachian State right now. Oddsmakers aren’t stupid and that tells me the smart play here is with Georgia Southern.

Keep in mind the Eagles come into this game having lost 5 straight against the spread and are just 1-6 overall. It’s almost as if the books are begging for you to take Appalachian State.

One thing to keep in mind with Georgia Southern, is their schedule. The Eagles have had to play 5 of their first 7 games on the road. That includes 4 straight away games coming into this contest. I think it’s safe to say this team is going to be excited about playing at home in a rare nationally televised game.

Georgia Southern comes in 10th in the country in rushing at 263.9 ypg. What people are going to see is that the Mountaineers have the 27th ranked run defense, giving up just 124.4 ypg. That’s a very misleading stat. The best rushing team App State has faced is UL Lafayette, who is 56th (182.0 ypg).

I think it’s going to be a tough task for the Mountaineers to go on the road and face this kind of ground game. Especially on just 4 days of rest. At the same time, I don’t think the Eagles defense gets enough credit. Considering they have played 5 of 7 on the road, their numbers are pretty respectable. They are giving up just 4.4 yards/carry and a completion percentage of just 55.5%.

It’s also worth pointing out that Appalachian State is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a SU win. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 20 points or less. Georgia Southern is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record. Take Georgia Southern! 

4* NCAAF Situational Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +

I like the value we are catching with the Boilermakers in this one. Nebraska comes into this game ranked No. 8 in the country at 6-0, but I'm not convinced they are as good as people think. The only ranked team they have played is Oregon, which at the time was No. 22. They won that game 35-32, but were fortunate to do so. Oregon left 4-points on the field with 4 failed 2-point conversion attempts. They were also fortunate to score a late touchdown in the 1st half, or they would have trailed 7-20 going into intermission. 

They also have a misleading 52-17 win over Wyoming, who they only led 24-17 going into the 4th quarter before the Cowboys starting turning it over every time they touched the ball. They had a similar misleading score against Illinois at home, as they trailed 10-16 going into the 4th and ended up winning 31-16. I just think this is way too many points for the Cornhuskers to be laying given the spot. 

Nebraska just got done playing a tough road game against Indiana and will have a hard time taking Purdue seriously with what they have on deck. After hosting the Boilermakers they have back-to-back road games against Ohio State and Wisconsin, which could very well determine their fate in the Big Ten West. The only thing they are worried about is getting out of here with a win and keeping their key players as fresh as possible going into those two big games. 

Purdue is clearly outmatched in talent, but I really like the fight of this team and I expect a great effort here in the first game under interim head coach Gerad Parker. As they showed last week against Iowa, they aren't going to laydown no matter what the score is, so we should have a great shot at a backdoor cover if needed. 

The Boilermakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a underdog of 21.5 to 31 points, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after rushing for 100 or less yards and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after losing 2 out of their last 3. Take Purdue! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Blowout on Navy +

I like the value here with the Midshipmen catching points at home, as I believe if anything they should be favored in this game. Those that though Navy was going to be way down this year after losing Keenan Reynolds and only having 8 starters back were wrong. The Midshipmen proved that last time they played, defeating Houston 46-40, who everyone thought was going to cruise through the AAC portion of their schedule. 

The thing is that Navy's triple-option attack is more about the system than the players, so they can just plug in the next guy and still have success. I know Memphis comes into this game only giving up 19.3 ppg and are ranked a respectable 38th against the run (140.0 ypg), but I don't think they are going to have an answer for Navy's option attack. They certainly didn't last year, as the Midshipmen rushed for 374 yards (5.7 yards/carry) in a 45-20 road win. Keep in mind that was a Memphis team that came into that game ranked No. 15 and perfect 8-0 on the season. 

Another big factor in favor of Navy, is that their game last week against ECU was cancelled, which means they are going to be fresh and well prepared for this Memphis team. I also love that Navy is the underdog here, as it keeps them from having a big head after that big win over the Cougars. 

Another key here is that I don't think Memphis is as good as their 5-1 record would lead you to believe. They have 4 wins against SE Missouri St, Kansas, Bowling Green and Tulane. Kansas, Bowling Green and Tulane are a combined 5-14 with all 3 having a win against a FCS foe. Tulane is the only one of those teams with wins against FBS competition and those were against UMass and Louisiana-Lafayette, who are 2-10 against FBS teams this season. The lone impressive win for the Tigers is a 34-27 win at home against Temple, which they had no business winning. The Owls outgained them 531 to 323 and had 27 first downs to Memphis' 15. Take Navy! 

5* NCAAF Big 12 Game of the Month on TCU +

I love the value we are getting here with TCU catching almost a touchdown against the Mountaineers. West Virginia comes into this game 5-0 and ranked No. 12 in the country, but I don't think they are anywhere close to as good as their ranking would suggest. Their 5 wins are against Missouri, Youngstown State, BYU, Kansas State and Texas Tech. They were also far from dominant in a number of those games. They beat Missouri by 15, but only outgained the Tigers 494 to 462. They were tied 14-14 with Youngstown State at the half, were outgained by BYU 521 to 481 and had to rally from a 3-16 deficit in the 4th quarter at home against Kansas State to win 17-16. 

As for TCU, I think the Horned Frogs are flying under the radar. Their two losses were to Arkansas by 3-points in double-overtime and to Oklahoma by 6. They did struggle in their last game, only beating Kansas by a final of 24-23 on the road, but that was a major letdown spot after that loss to the Sooners. The good thing is that combined with the Mountaineers impressive win at Texas Tech last week, has this line higher than it should be. 

I just think these two teams are a lot more evenly matched than what the record or this line would suggest. The other big key here is the situation. TCU is coming into this game off a bye and few coaches are better at getting their team prepared with an extra week of preparation than the Horned Frog's Gary Patterson. TCU is 20-8 ATS under Patterson with 2 or more weeks to prepare for an opponent, winning on average in this spot by a score of 32.8 to 17.7. The Horned Frogs are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog, which spans the last 7 years. Take TCU! 

4* NCAAF Early Bird ATS No Brainer on Wisconsin -

I know the Badgers are coming off two huge games against Michigan and Ohio State, with the most recent being a heartbreaking loss at home to the Buckeyes. There will be those that argue this is a big letdown spot on the road against a Iowa team that tends to play well at home. I believe that's the only reason this line isn't any higher. The key here is I don't believe we are going to see a letdown at all by Wisconsin and they are clearly the better team. 

This is a rivalry game and the Badgers haven't forgot about last year's loss to Iowa at home. A game they dominated on the field and should have won, yet ended up losing 6-10. Wisconsin beat themselves, turning it over 4 times, including a fumble on their own 1-yard line. They had a 320 to 221 edge in total yards and 21-14 advantage in first downs. 

On top of that, I believe Wisconsin has to feel like they can still win the West division and get to the Big Ten title game for a second crack at either the Buckeyes are Wolverines. They still have games against every other team in the West and the only team they trail by more than 1 game is Nebraska, who still has to play @ Ohio State and Iowa and hasn't looked as good as their record would indicate. 

I think we are going to see a similar type of domination by the Badgers in this one. Iowa's offense comes into this game ranked 102nd in the country in total offense, which is embarrassing given the schedule they have played. The passing game has been non-existent and it's not going to get better with their best wide out and top tight end both sidelined.  That's a problem because they don't figure to have much success running the ball. The only teams to rush for more than 100 yards on this Wisconsin defense are LSU, Michigan and Ohio State. Iowa's not in that same class, plus they got two starters on the offense line listed as questionable. The most telling stat is that the Badgers are allowing 3.4 yard/carry against teams who are on average gaining 5.1 yards/carry. 

I'll take my chances on the Badgers being able to do enough offensively to win here by more than 4-points and could easily see them winning by double-digits rather easily. Hawkeyes are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games after allowing 7 or less points in the 1st half of their last 2 games, while the Badgers are 42-18 ATS in their last 60 against a strong team that's won between 60% to 75% of their games. Take Wisconsin! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on C. Michigan/Toledo UNDER

I believe the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. I think we are seeing a big overreaction to what these offenses have done to this point and not how these two teams stack up against each other. Central Michigan comes comes in averaging 32.3 ppg and Toledo is putting up 43.0 ppg. The betting public is going to see that and think this total should be much closer to 70 than 60. 

The key here is that these are two very capable defensive teams and the offensive numbers for both sides are greatly aided by a some really weak competition they have played. Here's a list of where the Chippewas FBS opponents they have played rank in total defense; 106th, 74th, 107th, 22nd, 88th and 122nd. The team that was 22nd was Western Michigan and Central Michigan scored 10-points in that game. Now lets do the same thing for Toledo; 92nd, 101st, 83rd, 68th and 125th. 

As far as these two defenses are concerned. Central Michigan comes in ranked 31st in total defense, allowing just 351 ypg. Toledo is 37th in total defense, allowing just 360 ypg. Both of these teams are really good against the pass, which should limit the big plays here. Opposing teams are completing just 56.5% of their attempts against the Chippewas and only 51.4% against the Rockets. 

UNDER is 25-11 in Toledo's last 36 games against good offensive teams, who are averaging 425 or more yards/game. It's also 17-5 in their last 22 against a team with a winning record and 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. UNDER is also 5-0 in Central Michigan's last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Friday Night ATS No Brainer on Oregon + 

This line just doesn’t make sense. It seems too good to be true to catch the Golden Bears laying only 3-points at home. Especially given that Oregon has lost 4 straight and are off a 49-point loss at home. I’m showing close to 70% of the action on Cal in this one, which means the books are feeling pretty good about the Ducks here, especially since this line hasn't moved. 

The thing with Oregon is that while they are 2-4, their 4 losses have all come against good teams. Two of those being teams who are undefeated and without a loss in Nebraska and Washington. The combined record of the 4 teams they have lost to is 21-4. The last time they played a team on a similar level as Cal was Week 2 against Virginia. A game they won by 18-points with a +244 edge in total yards.

Cal has impressive wins at home against Texas and Utah, but just as easily could have lost both of those games. I know Oregon’s defense isn’t anything special, but the Golden Bears are just as bad on that side of the ball. In fact, you could argue Cal is worse. They are allowing 40.0 ppg against teams who are averaging just 31.3. The Ducks on the other hand are giving up 41.8 against teams average 36.4 ppg.

The other big key here is the health of Cal quarterback Davis Webb. He injured his hand in the loss to Oregon State. He stayed in the game, but clearly was not 100%. If he’s off just a little, that could be the edge the Ducks need to win this one going away. Cal’s biggest weapon at receiver, Chad Hansen, is expected to play, but could be limited.

I know both teams are coming off a loss, but I think the Ducks come out with a little more edge. Losing the way they did to Washington doesn’t sit well. I like the mentality of teams off embarrassing defeats in big games. You can almost guarantee a max effort the next time they take the field. 

It’s also worth pointing out that Cal has not fared well against the spread against bad defensive teams. They are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games against a team allowing 31 or more ppg. Take Oregon! 

4* BYU/Boise St NCAAF ATS Annihilator on Boise St - 

I’m going to side with the Broncos at home in this one. The public figures to come in heavy on BYU in this one. The Cougars largest loss all season is 3-points and their 3 losses combined are by just 7-points.

The fact that Boise only won by 5 as a 28-point favorite against Colorado State also draws attention to the dog. The big key here is the public isn’t going to spend a lot of time looking over the boxscore to see how misleading a final that was. They were up 28-3 with less than 6 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. The Rams converted back-to-back onside kicks, scoring 21 points in a 1:25.

Offensively, BYU is pretty dependent on the running game. When they struggle on the ground, the offense has a hard time putting up points. They only had 146 rushing yards on 47 attempts against Mississippi State last week. Keep in mind, while they ended the game with 28 points, they only had 14 in regulation.

I think the Cougars are going to find it even harder to run on the Broncos. Boise St comes in ranked just 47th against the run (142.3 ypg), but are only allowing 3.9 yards/carry. That’s against teams who average are putting up 182 ypg and 5.0 yards/carry.

As for the BYU defense, they too could be in for a long night. The Cougars come into this one with the 100th ranked pass defense, allowing 270.7 ypg. Opposing QB’s are completing 66.4% against them with a 8.3 average per attempt. They will be up against Boise State’s dynamite signal caller Brett Rypien. He’s completing 62.2% of his attempts with 1,622 yards and 12 TDs to just 3 INTs.

The other big factor here is where the game is being played. The home team has had a huge edge in the series. The home team has won all 4 meetings, covering in each of the last 3. On top of that, Boise State’s one of the more difficult places to play. The Broncos are 62-4 on the blue turf going back to 2006.

Boise State is also 34-14 ATS in their last 58 after failing to cover in 2 of their last 3 games. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning record. BYU on the other hand is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take Boise State! 

4* SEC Over/Under Total Annihilator on Florida/Missouri UNDER

I believe the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. Both Missouri and Florida had last week off, giving them a ton of time to prepare for this game. Last year they combined for just 24 points in a 21-3 Gators win at Missouri. The previous year they combined for 55 points in a 42-13 Tigers win. However, that's about as misleading of a score as you will ever find. Missouri scored 42 points on a mere 119 yards of total offense, as they had a touchdown on kick return, punt return, interception and fumble. I'll take my chances something like that doesn't happen again in this series. 

I know Missouri's gone to a more uptempo offense this year, but it's not really producing against the top teams they have played. Take away their 61 point effort against Eastern Michigan and 79 point outburst against Delaware State and they are averaging just 15.0 ppg in their 3 games against West Virginia, Georgia and LSU. They have been especially bad on the road, scoring just 11 at West Virginia and 7 at LSU. It's no secret that Florida has one of the best defenses in the country and are as tough to score as they come at home (only allowed 14 points at home all season). 

We also know that the Gators offense isn't a juggernaut and can struggle to put points on the scoreboard. We saw it last year and again this season. While Missouri's defense isn't great, they have been missing some key guys on that side of the ball, who are expected to be back this week. Add in the extra time to prepare for the Gators and I look for the Tigers to hold their own. Keep in mind they could give up 30 points and we still could be in good shape, as I don't see the Tigers scoring more than 17. 

It's also worth mentioning that the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in Missouri's last 7 road games and 33-18 in Florida's last 51 off a non-cover where they won the game outright (beat Vanderbilt 13-6 as a 14-point favorite). Take the UNDER! 

4* Big 10 Over/Under Total Dominator on Nebraska/Indiana UNDER

This total is going to appear way too low for a lot of people, as these aren't exactly two teams you think about as defensive stoppers, especially Indiana. However, I think we are going to see a low-scoring grind it out type of game. 

Indiana comes into this game ranked 39th in the country in total offense, largely due to a passing attack that ranks 26th in the country at 293 ypg. However, if you look closer at the numbers, they have only passed for more than 285 yards once all season. That was a 496 yards performance against Wake Forest. Last week they only had 182 passing yards against Ohio State. Nebraska's got a strong secondary. The Cornhuskers have held 3 of their 5 opponents under 200 yards passing and the most they have allowed is 251. The other big key here with Nebraska's defense is they have had two full weeks to prepare for this game and have no reason to be looking ahead with Purdue on deck. 

I just don't think this Indiana offense is as good as people think, but it's also not surprising that they aren't as good on that side of the ball. Indiana lost some serious talent from last year's team in quarterback Nate Sudfield (3,573 yards, 27 TDS) and running back Jordan Howard (1,213 yards, 6.2 yards/carry). The game that really stands out to me is their first game against FIU. They put up 34 points, but 16 of those came from the defense. The same FIU team that gave up 41 to Maryland and 53 to UCF. 

On the flip side of this, I have been impressed with Indiana's defense. For a team that isn't known for playing any defense, they are showing some good signs of changing things around on that side of the ball. They only gave up 383 yards of total offense last week on the road against a very good Ohio State offense. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 52.5% of their passes against them and the run defense has been decent. The key here is they should be able to gear up on the run against Nebraska, who is not a great passing team, plus they should also feed off the energy of the home crowd. 

At the same time, this Nebraska offense isn't anything special. They are only averaging 473 ypg despite playing some really bad defenses in Fresno State, Wyoming, Oregon and Illinois. Note that their opponents on average are allowing 440 ypg (198 ypg on the ground). The only legit defense they have faced is Northwestern and they only scored 24 points. 

I don't think either team gets to 30 points in this game and that should have them struggling to put up 50, which gives us around 7-points of value. Give me the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF No Limit Game of the Year on Tennessee +

The Volunteers magic in close games finally ran out last week at Texas A&M, while Alabama continued to roll covering as a 14.5-point road favorite at Arkansas in a 49-30 win. I believe it has created some exceptional value here on Tennessee at home. 

Sure the Volunteers are fortunate to be 5-1 and could easily have 3 or even 4 losses, but the fact of the matter is, they are still in the driver seat in the SEC East and are far from out of the playoff picture. I don't think this team is going to have any problem bouncing back from their loss to the Aggies, as everyone in the SEC gets up to play Alabama. 

A lot of people thought the Vols were going to get exposed on the road by Texas A&M, but that wasn't the case. Had it not been for 7 turnovers they would have won that game. Tennessee put up 684 yards of offense against what was suppose to be an elite Aggies defense. With this game being at home, I think the Volunteers are going to do a much better job at taking care of the football and the offense is more than capable of moving the ball against Alabama. 

It's also important to note that Alabama's game at Arkansas was a lot more competitive than the final score would indicate. The Crimson Tide only outgained the Razorbacks by 44 yards. What did them in was 5 turnovers, two that were returned for touchdowns and two more that led to short fields and quick scores (touchdowns) by the Alabama offense. Arkansas basically gifted the Tide 28 points and still only loss by 19. That's a good sign that Tennessee can keep this within 14 points. 

The other big key here is that second game of a back-to-back road slate is a lot harder than the first. This is also a bit of a trap game for the Tide, as they have a massive game on deck against undefeated and No. 6 Texas A&M, which could decide the SEC West. If there was a game that Alabama was going to come out a bit flat, this would be it. 

Keep in mind that the Crimson Tide are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after covering the number in their previous game. The Volunteers on the other hand are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 off a SU loss and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record. It's also worth pointing out last time Alabama came to Tennessee in 2014, they only won 34-20 and that Vols team was no where near as talented as the one that will take the field on Saturday. Take Tennessee! 

5* MAC Situational Game of the Month on Western Michigan -

The Broncos finally failed to cover a spread this season, as they only beat Northern Illinois by 15 as a 18-point favorite. Given how bad Northern Illinois has looked this season, I think that result has kept this line here against Akron lower than it should be. In fact, I think Western Michigan should be closer to a 17-point favorite again this week. 

I don't think being ranked for the first time in school history is going to prove to be an issue. Head coach P.J. Fleck is the real deal (will be coaching at a Power 5 school next year) and has his team 100% locked in at going 12-0. On top of that, this is a much bigger mismatch in talent than the line would suggest. 

Akron has no chance of slowing down this Western Michigan offense. The Zips are 109th in the country in total defense and 118th against the pass (292.7 ypg). Keep in mind they have played some pretty bad offenses. They are allowing 105 more yards/game than their opponents are averaging. The fact that they gave up 54 points to Wisconsin's offense really says it all. Keep in mind the Badgers have scored 76 points in their other 4 games combined (only put up 23 against Georgia State). 

That weak secondary is going to get exposed early and often in this one. Western Michigan's quarterback, Zach Terrell comes in completing 70.6% of his pass attempts with 15 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. They also got an NFL-caliber wide out in Corey Davis, who already has 589 yards and 8 scores on 36 receptions. Not to mention the Broncos have the 15th ranked rushing attack, averaging 246.8 ypg on the ground. Western Michigan is going to score at will and do so quickly with a lot of big plays. 

At the same time, the Broncos are also very good on the defensive side of the ball. They are 27th in the country in total defense and are winning up front on the line of scrimmage, allowing just 3.9 yards/carry against the run. Akron has the 111th ranked rushing attack in the country, which means they are going to be playing behind the chains a lot and that's going to lead to some quick possessions and more than likely some big turnovers. Speaking of turnovers, Akron has turned it over 10 times in 5 games, while the Broncos haven't turned it over once this season and have forced 11 turnovers. 

Broncos are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference road games, winning on average in this spot by 18 ppg. They are also 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against bad pass defenses (allowing opponents to complete 58% or more their passes) and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against teams who average 60 or more penalty yards per game. Take Western Michigan! 

4* Big 12 Over/Under Total No Brainer on Oklahoma/Kansas St UNDER

A lot of people are going to see this total sitting under 60 points and instantly want to take the OVER. The perception is that Big 12 games are always high-scoring and we have seen Oklahoma play in some really high-scoring games this season. However, I think the value here is with the UNDER. 

Oklahoma's offense has been held in check this year by both Houston and Ohio State. The Sooners scored just 23 against the Cougars and 24 against the Buckeyes. In that game against Houston, they only had 17 points until the final minutes of the 4th when they added a garbage touchdown. While Oklahoma is balanced offensively, I think their passing game is set up by their ability to run the ball. Keep in mind Houston held them to just 70 yards rushing in by far their worst offensive showing of the season. Kansas State can take away the running game. The Wildcats rank 3rd in the country against the run, giving up just 80.8 ypg and a mere 2.7 yards/carry. 

The other thing that Kansas State is going to do is try and help their defense by sustaining long-drives offensively. Something I believe they can do against an overrated Oklahoma defense. Let's also not forget the Sooners are in a prime spot for a letdown after finally getting the monkey off their back against rival Texas last week. Not to mention Oklahoma has quite a long list of injured players on the defensive side of the ball. 

Bill Synder has magical powers when it comes to getting his team to play above expectations when they are a big underdog. I really like the team he has here. I don't hate taking the points with K-State, but I do have some concerns with their offense being able to produce enough points. They are ranked 112th in the country in total offense with zero threat of a passing attack. I would much rather rely on their defense keeping this a low-scoring game than hoping the offense can score late to keep it within the number. Take the UNDER! 

5* Friday Night NCAAF ATS No Brainer on Tulane +

I think the value here is on the Green Wave catching double-digits at home. Memphis was very fortunate to leave with a win last week against Temple. The Tigers only had 3-points at the half at home against the Owls. They were outgained on the game by over 200 yards (531 to 323).

They benefited from 3 Temple turnovers, including an interception they returned for a TD. They also had a 95-yard kickoff return for a score. As well as a 71-yard touchdown run.

Let’s also not forget that Memphis had a cupcake schedule to start the season 3-0. They opened with SE Missouri, Kansas and Bowling Green all at home. Kansas is 1-4 and Bowling Green is 1-5. Both wins for those two teams coming against FCS foes.

The reason we are seeing a big spread here is Tulane is far from a team the public wants to back. Even though the Green Wave are 3-2, they haven’t beat anyone of significance. Plus, they are coming off back-to-back 3-9 seasons.

It’s not so much the wins, but the losses that you should be paying attention to. Tulane only lost by a final of 3-7 at Wake Forest and 14-21 at home to Navy. The same Navy team that just knocked undefeated Houston.

What gets overlooked with Tulane is first year head coach Willie Fritz. An excellent hire by this program. Fritz came over from Georgia Southern, where he led them to a Sun Belt title in their first year as a FBS program. The guy has won everywhere he’s went and deserves all the credit here. Keep in mind Tulane only had 13 returning starters and were installing new schemes on both sides of the ball.

I think this is a perfect trap game for Memphis. The Tigers played at Ole Miss two weeks ago and then had to rally to beat Temple at home. A game they desperately wanted to win after losing 12-31 to the Owls the previous year. Given how lopsided this series has been and a big road game against Navy on deck, I think the Tigers will have a hard time getting up for this game. That not only puts the Green Wave in a great spot to cover, but win this game outright. Take Tulane!

5* Tuesday Night Sun Belt ATS Annihilator on UL-Lafayette + 

I’m going to take the points with the home team in this one. There’s several factors in play that make me think we are dealing with an inflated line. A lot of the public watched Appalachian State’s near upset over Tennessee in Week 1. That game is still fresh in their minds and most believe it's a game the Mountaineers should have won. I'm not saying Appalachian State isn't a good team, but I think they are getting too much respect here. 

As for Lafayette, they come in off two straight losses to bad teams in Tulane and New Mexico State. Both were on the road and both defeats came in overtime. They also get crushed 45-10 by Boise State in their only game against a top level opponent. The public simply isn’t going to trust the Ragin’ Cajuns in this spot. Especially given how lopsided the two previous games in this series have been.

I’m not saying UL-Lafayette is going to win this game, but I like their chances of keeping it close. I think this team is getting better with each game and they have a legit head coach in Mark Hudspeth, who has had a lot of success in his 5 years here. 

Those that have watched App State, know this team’s strength offensively is the run game. The Mountaineers come in ranked 36th in rushing at 213.0 ypg, but are just 108th in passing (166.2 ypg). That plays into the Ragin’ Cajuns hands. Lafayette is 22nd against the run, giving up just 116.0 ypg and a mere 2.8 yards/carry. Now I know Lafayette has played a lot of bad teams, but there’s reason to be optimistic. They held Tulane to just 130 rushing yards on 48 attempts. Going into Week 7, Tulane ranks 16th in the country at 246.6 ypg.

The Ragin’ Cajuns aren’t a great offensive team, but I think they can do enough here to keep it within the number. Appalachian State has allowed 125+ yards rushing in all but one game. They also have allowed 300+ passing yards twice this season. Lafayette has a talented back in Elijah McGuire, who rushed for 1,058 yards and 13 TDS last year. He’s already got 517 yards and 3 scores in 2016. They also have a talented senior QB in Anthony Jennings, who is a transfer from LSU. Jennings has completed 61% of his attempts for 995 yards and 8 scores.

I also don’t think you can overlook the revenge angle here. Lafayette doesn’t want to lose a 3rd straight game in the series, especially at home. Keep in mind the Ragin’ Cajuns are 15-5 in their last 20 at home against Sun Belt teams.  

We also find a strong system in play. Home dogs off 2 or more losses that have won between 40%-49% of their games are 15-4 (79%) ATS against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. Take Lafayette! 

4* Week 6 NCAAF Vegas Line Mistake on Florida St + 

I know a lot of people are going to be on Miami at home, especially given Florida State’s early struggles. I’m not one of them. I actually think we are getting some value here with the Seminoles as a 3-point dog. Keep in mind the early college football game of the year odds released by the Golden Nugget had FSU -7 in this game.

I know Miami is ranked No. 10 in the country and undefeated at 4-0, but I think the jury is still out on this team. The Hurricanes haven’t exactly been tested. Their two toughest games being on the road against Appalachian State and Georgia Tech.

While they won and covered last week against the Yellow Jackets, that was a misleading final. Georgia Tech actually outgained Miami 361 to 355 and had 22 to first downs to the Canes 18. Had it not been for two defensive touchdowns, that one would have came down to the wire.

What concerns me is the 267 yards rushing they allowed to the Yellow Jackets. I know Georgia Tech’s option attack is tough to stop, but you know the run is coming. Miami also had two full weeks to prepare for that game coming off a bye.

Florida State’s offense is the real deal and were certainly not to blame for last week’s loss to UNC. The Seminoles racked up 595 yards of total offense. Freshman quarterback Deondre Francois threw for 372 yards and Dalvin Cook rushed for 140 yards and 3 scores. Cook has really came alive the last two weeks, as he had 267 yards the previous game against USF.

I know Florida State’s defense hasn’t been great, but I have a lot of trust in Jimbo Fisher. He’s going to take over more responsibility on that side and I think we see an inspired effort on Saturday. While FSU is giving up 35.4 ppg and 438 ypg, it’s come against teams that are averaging 38.8 ppg and 484 ypg.

In comparison, Miami’s offensive numbers have been greatly aided by who they have played. The four teams the Hurricanes have played are giving up on average 437 ypg.

Whenever the line is sitting at 3 or less with Florida State involved, it’s been wise to back the Seminoles. Florida State is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 with a line of +3 to -3. As for Miami, the Canes are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 4 straight games. Take Florida State! 

5* SEC Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas +

While Alabama has won 9 straight in the series, the last two have been close. The Tide squeaked out a 14-13 win at Arkansas in 2014. They ended up winning 27-14 at home last year, but only led 10-7 going into the 4th quarter. I’m going to call for a third straight competitive game and take the points with the Razorbacks.

You have to keep in mind that we are now 5 weeks into the season. Oddsmakers are pretty locked in on the teams, especially the Power 5 schools. They know the betting public will be all over Alabama in this game. There’s no doubt in my mind the line is inflated because of this.

Keep in mind this is only Alabama’s second true road game of the season. They won the first one at Ole Miss, but they failed to cover as a 11-point favorite. They also trailed in that game 3-24 in the 1st half and were outgained by the Rebels 522 to 492.

We are also catching a big number due to Arkansas recently losing to Texas A&M by 21-points (24-45). What gets overlooked is that was 17-17 at half and they only trailed 17-24 going into the 4th quarter. They also blew a chance to take a 24-17 lead early in the 3rd, failing to score with a 1st and goal from the 2-yard line. After that the momentum changed and they just couldn’t bounce back.

This is just 4th time Arkansas has been a home dog since the start of the 2014 season. They are 3-0 ATS in this spot and have won two of those outright. If Alabama doesn’t take this game seriously, they not only won’t cover, but they could lose outright.

The Razorbacks are known as a great running team under head coach Brett Bielema. However, this year they are a lot more balanced. Junior quarterback Austin Allen can sling the rock. He’s completing 67% of his attempts with 12 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. Already having thrown for more than 1,200 yards. That’s critical, as you need to be able to spread the ball around to have success against a Saban coached defense.

Defensively, Arkansas is also talented enough to keep the Tide in check. Especially with this game being played at home. Alabama’s done most of their damage through the air, at least against quality teams. That plays into the strength of the Razorback defense. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 58.3% of their attempts against them.

Arkansas is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 games. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons after 2 straight games with 60 or more combined points. To top it off we got a strong system backing a fade of the Tide. Road favorites who have allowed 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games against an opponent that just outrushed their last opponent by 125 or more yards are a mere 11-38 (22%) ATS since 1992. Take Arkansas! 

4* NCAAF Underdog Game of the Week on Virginia Tech + 

I think we are seeing some great value here on the Hokies catching points against the Tar Heels. I know North Carolina is coming off a huge win at Florida State, but I think that actually works in our favor. I think it's going to be really hard for the Tar Heels to bounce back from that emotional roller coaster against the Seminoles and this Virginia Tech team is the real deal. 

The Hokies are 3-1 with their only loss coming in an epic collapse against Tennessee early in the season. Virginia Tech had a 14-0 lead in that game, but just fell apart with turnovers, giving the ball away 5 times in a hostile environment. They outgained the Vols by 70 yards and held Tennessee's offense to just 16 first downs. What I love is how this team responded, demolishing Boston College (49-0) and East Carolina (54-17). 

Not to take anything away from North Carolina, but this is a team that could just as easily be 2-3. They needed a 54-yard field in the final seconds to beat FSU and had to overcome a 13-point 4th quarter deficit to edge Pitt at home 37-36 (scored game-winning touchdown with 2 seconds left on the clock). 

For me this is all about which team I think is going to be able to make stops against the opposing offense. I give a big edge to the Hokies here. North Carolina's defense has struggled regardless of the competition. James Madison put up 28 points and had 495 yards of total offense against them. It's also worth noting the Tar Heels offense could have to rely more on the pass with running back Elijah Hood banged up. That could prove to be a major problem, as the Hokies come in ranked 10th against the pass, allowing just 150.8 ypg. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 41.3% of their attempts with a mere 5.5 average per attempt. 

Hokies are 30-16 ATS in their last 46 road games after allowing 17 or less points in 2 straight games and Fuente has gone 7-0 ATS in the 7 games he's coached against teams that are giving up 230 or more rushing yards per game. As for North Carolina, the Tar Heels are 0-7 ATS under Larry Fedora at home after playing in 2 straight games where 60 or more points were scored. Take Virginia Tech! 

4* NCAAF Week 6 No Doubt ATS Blowout on Michigan St -

It's amazing how quickly the perception on the Spartans have changed. Just a few weeks ago everyone was praising this team and calling them a sleeper in the Big Ten after their impressive road win at Notre Dame. After getting outplayed at their own game at home by Wisconsin and then letting one slip away at Indiana, the public has jumped off the Sparty bandwagon. 

I believe it's creating some great value here on Michigan State at home against BYU. One thing you can count on with the Spartans under head coach Mark Dantonio is that this team is going to come out and play as hard as they can regardless of what's happened in previous games. I think we are going to see a pissed of Michigan State team take the field in what has the feeling of a must-win game after losing their last two. 

While BYU comes in at 2-3, the public has made some nice money backing the Cougars early on, as they are 4-1 ATS. BYU has also proven themselves against some quality teams like Utah, UCLA and West Virginia. However, you can't ignore the fact that the Cougars have played a brutal schedule to start the season and are in the dreaded spot of having to travel east. 

BYU was in this spot a couple weeks back against West Virginia and the Mountaineers did as they pleased offensively, racking up 481 yards of total offense. This past week the Cougars defense gave up a ridiculous 692 yards to Toledo. I think it's a sign of the defense wearing down, as they just haven't had a chance to catch their breath playing Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia and Toledo in their first 5 games. 

We saw what Michigan State's offense is capable of against a bad defense when they went on the road and put up 36 points and 500+ yards of offense against Notre Dame. I think we are going to see a lot more balance in the offense this week, as BYU can't stop the pass. They rank 120th in the country, giving up 310.2 ypg. 

The other big key here is how Michigan State's defense stacks up against the BYU offense. For the Cougars offense to have success, they have to be able to run the ball. That's going to be an issue on the road in a hostile environment against a stingy Michigan State run defense, that ranks 15th in the country against the run, giving up just 105.5 ypg and 3.1 yards/carry. 

Prior to last week's loss to Indiana, Michigan State was a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 coming off a loss. The Spartans are also a strong 19-7 ATS in their last 26 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 games. Take Michigan State! 

4* Early Bird NCAAF ATS Annihilator on Maryland -

A lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder why Maryland is favored on the road against the Nittany Lions. Well it's for good reason. The Terrapins are one of the better teams that no one is talking about. Maryland is 4-0 and getting it done on both sides of the ball. It all stems from the addition of new head coach D.J. Durkin, who brought in an excellent staff that is finally getting these Terps to play up to their potential. 

I know Maryland has played an easy schedule to this point, but that's actually helping the line here, as I just don't think the general public is paying any attention to this team. On the flip side of this, Penn State just hasn't lived up to the expectations under James Franklin. Defense use to a staple in State College, but things are unravelling on that side of the ball in 2016. The Nittany Lions come in allowing 31.4 ppg and 404 ypg. Struggling to stop both the run (4.9 yards/carry) and the pass (opposing QB's completing 61.2%). It's not going to get any better with the injuries they have suffered on this side of the ball. 

Penn State lost their top returning player on defense in linebacker Jason Cabina, as well as projected starter Nyeem Wartman-White. On top of that, fellow returning starter Brandon Bell is questionable, as is backup Jan Johnson. They also two of their top corners, Grant Haley and Christian Campbell on the injury report, both of which are listed as questionable. 

Given those injuries, I just don't see Penn State being able to slow down this Maryland offensive attack. The Terps are running wild on opponents, averaging 300 ypg on the ground and have topped 200 yards in each game. The Nittany Lions have allowed 225+ rushing yards in 3 of their 5 games, twice giving up over 325 yards. 

On the flip side of things, Penn State has struggled to run the football, as they are only averaging 3.3 yards/carry. Maryland just held Purdue to 10 yards rushing last week and I look for them to get the Nittany Lions in a lot of 3rd and long situations, which should allow them to get off the field. More than anything, I just don't think Penn State is capable of matching what their defense is going to allow. 

Nittany Lions are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 against fellow Big Ten teams and are 0-6 in their last 6 against strong rushing teams that are averaging 4.75 or more yards/carry. The Terps on the other hand are a dominant 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games against bad run defenses that are allowing 4.75 or more yards/carry. Take Maryland! 

5* Friday Night NCAAF No Limit Top Play on Boston College +

There’s no denying that Clemson is the better team, but this is a really bad spot for the Tigers. Last week’s game against Louisville was as big as it gets this early in the season. It will be almost impossible for Clemson to not suffer some kind of letdown here. Especially with this being a road game on short rest.

I know they won and covered at Georgia Tech on Thursday two weeks ago, but that was off a cupcake game against South Carolina State. It only makes it that much harder for them to get up for this game with BC not being a real threat. Not to mention they could be looking ahead to next week’s homecoming game against NC State.

While Clemson will struggle to get motivated, BC is going to treat this like their Super Bowl. The Eagles don’t get many chances to play in primetime games like this, especially at home. It also helps that Boston College comes in fresh off two easy wins against inferior teams.

You also have to take into account that the Eagles have a history of playing the top teams in the ACC tough at home. Last year they only lost by 14 at home to FSU and they finished the year just 3-9. The previous year they only lost by 4 at home to a ranked Clemson team. In 2013 they gave Florida State (went undefeated) one of  their biggest scares. Backing this up, is the fact that BC is 40-20 ATS in their last 60 vs teams who have won 75% or more of their games.

The thing that is going to scare a lot of people from taking the Eagles is that 49-point loss to Virginia Tech. The key thing to keep in mind is that was about as bad a spot as you will find a team in. BC was playing in their 3rd straight road game after opening the season in Ireland. They had no gas left in the tank against a pissed off Hokies team coming off a loss to Tennessee.

Lastly, we have a strong system backing the Eagles. Home dogs of 14.5 or more points with a winning record and off 2 straight wins are 35-9 (80%) ATS since 1992. Take Boston College!

5* Temple/Memphis AAC Game of the Month on Temple + 

I think the value here is with the Owls as a double-digit dog against the Tigers. Even though Temple has covered each of their last 4 games, they aren’t getting a ton of respect. A lot of that stems from their opening week 15-point loss at home to Army. A game in which they were favored to win by 14-points.

Memphis on the other hand is 3-1 with their only loss coming this past week at Ole Miss by 20-points. The public isn’t going to jump off the Tigers bandwagon after losing to a team like the Rebels on the road. In fact, the public is all over Memphis in this game, with close to 60% of the bets coming in on the Tigers.

Not only do I think this is too many points, but it’s not a great spot for Memphis. While the Tigers are playing with revenge, they are also in a big letdown spot. They just played a physical and up-tempo game against one of the best teams in the country. Asking this team to blowout Temple on 4 days of rest is a lot.

The Owls are also playing on 4-days of rest, but come in off two easy wins. They had a 31-7 lead at intermission against Charlotte and 35-14 edge at the half last week versus SMU.

This is also a statement game for Temple. They are still searching for their signature win of 2016. What better place to do it, than on the road in a nationally televised game. I also don’t think it’s going to sit well with the Owls that Vegas doesn’t even think they are the same level as Memphis. A team from their conference, who they beat by 18-points last year.

Temple’s offense doesn’t look good on paper. Through 4 games they rank 106th in total offense at just 350.2 yards/game.  It looks even worse going up against a Memphis team that ranks 48th in total defense.

However, the Tigers aren’t as good on defense as the numbers suggest. They benefited from playing 3 horrible offenses in Southeast Missouri, Kansas and Bowling Green. Not to mention they have been hit hard with injuries of late. Starting linebacker Jackson Dillon was lost for the season prior to the Ole Miss game. Starting corner Dontrell Nelson and starting safety Chris Morley are both questionable. 

I think Temple’s physical defense is going to keep them in this game. At the same time I think the offense is going to play better than most people expect. I really like their chances of keeping this game close and an outright win isn’t out of the question. Owls are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 as an underdog under head coach Matt Rhule, while Memphis is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. Take Temple! 

5* Ark St/Ga Southern No Limit Top Play on Arkansas State +

I think we are getting some great value here on the Red Wolves at home. Arkansas State is way undervalued after their 0-4 start. I’ll gladly take the points with the home team in this one.

There’s nothing to be ashamed about losing at home to Toledo and on the road against Auburn and Utah State. However, the most recent loss at home to FCS foe Central Arkansas looks really bad. Especially, given they were favored by 3 scores (17.5-points).

There is some positive to take away from that loss in the box score. Arkansas State put up 469 yards of total offense and outgained the Bears 469 to 382. They also led 23-16 going into the 4th quarter. They were done in by 4 turnovers. Same thing happened the previous week against Utah State. The Red Wolves outgained the Aggies but committed 3 turnovers.

Let’s also not forget Arkansas State started out last year 1-3 before going 8-0 in Sun Belt play. With this being their conference opener and coming off a bye, I think it brings new life to the players. It also helps playing at home in a rare nationally televised game. Note that the Red Wovles were 26-4 at home over the previous 5 seasons.

I also think this is a good matchup for Arkansas State. Their strength offensively is their passing game. Which just recently got an upgrade with Justice Hansen replacing Chad Voytik. Hansen threw for 277 yards against Utah State and 424 yards vs Central Arkansas. Only attempted 10 passes in first two games as backup.

Defensively, it might not look great on paper. The Red Wolves rank 117th against the run, giving up 239.3 ypg. However, they actually have only gave up more than 200 yards once. That was against Auburn on the road, where they allowed 462.

Georgia Southern’s rushing numbers look great, but it’s misleading. They had 300+ against Savannah St, South Alabama and ULM. Three bad teams. In their only game against a legit defense, they managed 202 against Western Michigan. Just so happens to be the only game they lost.

I just don’t think there’s as big a gap between these two teams as the line suggests. I look for Arkansas State to respond in a defining game for their season at home. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if they won this game outright.

4* NCAAF Situational No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Michigan State - 

I’ll be the first to say that this line seems too good to be true. Typically when something looks obvious, it’s time to load up on the other side. However, I don’t think that’s the case here. In fact, this reminds me a lot of the line we saw last week with Florida State only laying 5 at USF.

Like the Spartans, the Seminoles were coming off an embarrassing loss to Louisville. Florida State went on to win comfortably 55-35. It’s one thing to lose a game against a quality opponent. It’s another to get embarrassed. I don’t see Michigan State hanging their heads after the loss to Wisconsin. Instead, I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder.

The big edge for Indiana is that they are playing at home in a night game. Yes, the crowd will be electric to start, but I don’t trust this team to keep this close. I’ve not been impressed with what I have seen so far from the Hoosiers.

They won their opener 34-13 over a horrible FIU team. The 21-point win looks great on paper, but it was much closer than the final score indicates. Indiana actually trailed 12-13 going into the 4th quarter. Had it not been for two interceptions returned for a touchdown, they may have lost that game.

The icing on the cake for me was last week’s loss to Wake Forest. I know the offense put up all kinds of yards, but that’s not a game a good team loses. Wake Forest is improved, but far from a quality team. Not to mention they were minus their best quarterback and running back for that contest. Even minus those two, Indiana couldn’t get a stop when it needed to.

I just don’t see them being able to keep Michigan State from doing whatever they want offensively. After facing one of the best defenses in the country in Wisconsin, it’s going to feel like playing the practice squad when they take on Indiana.

Let’s also not forget this isn’t the first year Indiana has had a strong offense. Michigan State’s defense wasn’t the problem against the Badgers. They kept them in check and played really well against an elite Notre Dame offense the week before.

You also have to factor in the poor decision making of Indiana quarterback Richard Lagow. Chances are he’ll throw at least a couple picks here and that should be enough for the Spartans to secure an easy cover. Take Michigan State! 

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Oklahoma -

I think we are getting some excellent value here on Oklahoma as a small road favorite against the Horned Frogs. This might seem like a mistake by the books, given the Sooners are just 1-2 and TCU is 3-1 and ranked No. 21 in the country playing at home. The key here is who these two teams have played. 

Oklahoma's two losses have come against Houston and Ohio State, two teams ranked inside the Top 6 in the country and deservingly so. TCU on the other hand has 3 wins over the likes of South Dakota State, Iowa State and SMU. All of which they were more than a 3 touchdown favorite. Their lone loss came at home to Arkansas as a 7-point favorite, who is now where close to as good as the two teams that Sooners lost to. 

Now I know there's some concern with Oklahoma and whether or not they will show up the rest of the season after basically being eliminated from playoff contention with two losses. I'm not buying that at all. While it's unlikely, it's way to early to throw in the towel. It's also not the first time they have struggled with expectations early and they bounced back in almost all of those instances. I think we are going to see a very similar type performance here to what we saw last week with Ole Miss, who at 1-2 came out an laid an absolute beating on Georgia. 

What you can't forget is that this is one of the talented teams in the country. Not only will they be playing with a chip on their shoulder, but they have had an extra week to prepare for this game with a bye last week. 

The Sooners defense comes in giving up 31.7 ppg and 401 ypg, but it's not as bad as it looks. The teams they have played are averaging 42.2 ppg and 485 ypg, so they have actually held teams below their season averages. TCU on the other hand is giving up 26.2 ppg against teams averaging only 28.6 ppg and they have played some really bad teams. 

Offensively, Oklahoma is averaging 35.3 ppg and 479 ypg against teams that are only giving up 19.1 ppg and 328 ypg. The Horned Frogs are averaging an impressive 42.7 ppg, but it's come against teams that are allowing 35.5 ppg. 

TCU is going to put up some points, but I just don't see them doing near enough offensively to keep this game close. Oklahoma should score just about every time they touch the ball and I'm confident the defense will get enough stops to not only win and cover, but win here by double-digits. Take Oklahoma! 

4* NCAAF Week 5 Vegas Line Mistake on Georgia + 

The betting public is all over Tennessee as they have been in just about every game they have played this season. The Volunteers were one of the most hyped teams coming into the season and continue to get overvalued by the books because of it. 

I know Tennessee is coming off an impressive 38-28 win over Florida, but it was far from a dominant performance. The Volunteers trailed 3-21 at the half and were playing at home against a Gators team that was down to their backup quarterback. There was already going to be an emotional letdown after that game, as Tennessee had lost 11 straight to Florida and had that one circled on the calendar since the schedule was released. It's going to be even harder for them to bounce back after that furious rally in the 2nd half to win the game.

This is also the same Tennessee team that should have lost at home to Appalachian State in their opener, barely squeaked by at home against Ohio and weren't anywhere near as dominant as the 45-24 final against Va Tech would suggest. 

Georgia got steamrolled at Ole Miss 14-45 and will be without running back Nick Chubb, but I still like them here in the role of the home dog. That ugly loss to the Rebels isn't as bad as you might think. I know Ole Miss came in at 1-2, but the two losses were to FSU and Alabama. The Rebels are a top 10 team in my opinion and were playing with a chip on their shoulder after giving one away the previous week against Alabama. Not to mention it was the first true road start for freshman quarterback Jacob Eason. 

The Rebels also exposed a not so great Georgia secondary, but that's not a big concern here. Tennessee's passing attack isn't great. Joshua Dobbs gets a lot of love, but he's consistently off the mark. I actually think the Bulldogs physical front 7 is going to have their way with a very suspect Vols offensive line. 

Offensively, I think Georgia is going to be able to move the ball. I have not been impressed with Tennessee's defense and giving up 28 points to that Florida offense at home speaks volumes to the problems they have on that side of the ball. Chubb's absence isn't as big as you might think. Georgia has a number of really good backs on the roster. The best being freshman Brian Herrien, who comes in averaging an impressive 7.1 yards/carry on 26 attempts. 

Georgia has failed to cover in each of their last 3 games and are just 1-3 ATS on the season, but that a good thing for backers. The Bulldogs are 33-18 ATS in their last 51 after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 games. Take Georgia! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total No Brainer on Navy/Air Force UNDER

This total is going to have some people shaking their heads. Navy comes into this game averaging 33.7 ppg and Air Force is even better at 37.3 ppg, yet we have a total here under 50. It has everything to do with the style of play for these two teams. Both run an option oriented offense that is difficult for most other teams to prepare for, especially on a normal week of preparation. That advantage of the defense not knowing how to defend the option is lost in this matchup, as these two teams practice against it all year long.

To no surprise, we have consistently seen the books miss the mark on the total when these two teams play. In fact, each of the last 4 and 8 of the last 10 have gone UNDER the mark. Last year they combined for 44 points with Navy doing the heavy lifting in a 33-11 win. The thing to keep in mind, is the Midshipmen aren't nearly as explosive on offense this year after losing the best option quarterback to ever go through their program in Keenan Reynolds. In fact, Navy only had 1 returning starter on offense (did bring back 7 on defense). 

Not only do these two teams know how to stop the option, both come in with a pretty strong defense. Navy is only giving up 18.0 ppg and Air Force is allowing just 18.3 ppg. The other big key here is that due to both teams running on almost every play, the clock is constantly moving. That limits the possessions for both teams and really makes it tough for them to put up a lot of points. At the same time, we don't have to worry about either side throwing interceptions that can lead to quick scores. 

UNDER is 11-1 in Air Force's last 12 home games after outrushing each of their last 2 opponents by 125 or more yards and 25-9 in Navy's last 34 against excellent ball control teams, who average 32 or more minutes of possession per game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Early Bird Oddsmakers Error on Texas +

I really like the value here with the No. 22 ranked Longhorns catching points against the Cowboys. No concern here with Texas being on the road, in fact, the road team has won 7 straight in the series. The Longhorns also have a big edge here coming off a bye after a disappointing 43-50 loss at Cal back in Wk 3. I think this team might of got a little ahead of themselves after that big opening week win over Notre Dame and that loss will serve as a wake up call have them 100% focused on leaving Stillwater with a victory. 

This is also a big revenge game for the Longhorns. Last year they had a 27-24 lead with the ball and less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. They couldn't do anything an gave the ball to Oklahoma State at midfield and they tied it up 27-27. Texas got the ball back with less than a minute to play and it looking like overtime, instead they completely muffed the punt and Oklahoma State got the ball and kicked the game-winning field goal. 

It's also worth nothing that while Texas is motivated and well-rested, Oklahoma State could have a difficult time matching the intensity of the Longhorns. The Cowboys have had quite a 3-game stretch the last 3 weeks. They lost in the final seconds to CMU 27-30, held on to beat Pitt 45-38 and lost a heartbreaker at Baylor 24-35. 

Motivation and rest aside, I also think Texas is the much better football team. Offensively they should have their way with a worn down Cowboys defense. The Longhorns come in averaging 44.7 ppg on 500 ypg and are averaging an impressive 6 yards per play. Oklahoma State's defense is giving up nearly 28 ppg, 418 ypg and 6 yards/play. The defense for Texas hasn't looked great, but that was against two of the best offenses in the country in Notre Dame and Cal. The energy and effort should be there and the extra time to prepare should pay off. 

Backing all this up is a strong system in favor of the Longhorns. Road teams who are averaging anywhere between 5.6 and 6.2 yards/play and coming off a game where they had 525 or more total yards are 27-6 (82%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing an opponent who is allowing 5.6 to 6.2 yards/play. Take Texas! 

5* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Washington - 

I believe the Huskies are one of the best kept secrets in college football. While they are ranked in the Top 10 and are 14 to 1 to win it all, no one is talking about this team.

I know they struggled last week against Arizona, but let’s not overlook how tough a spot that was. The Huskies have had this game against Stanford circled since the schedule was released. The fact that it’s a nationally televised weekday game only made it that much harder to not look ahead.

It’s also worth pointing out that game against Arizona could have been a lot different. Washington missed 2 field goals and threw an interception in the end zone. They also turned it over on downs deep in Arizona territory. They still managed to put 35 points and over 500 yards of offense on the board.

While the Huskies were unfortunate not to win by more, Stanford was lucky to win at all. The Cardinal could have just as easily lost to the Bruins. It’s no secret that Stanford’s offense is centered around getting the ball to No. 5.  Christian McCaffrey is one of the best players in the country and does it all for the Cardinal.

The key here is that Washington has the talent defensively to keep the Heisman candidate in check. They also have a pretty good coach in Chris Petersen. I’m confident Petersen will put together a gameplan to limit McCaffrey’s big plays. Forcing the others to beat them.

You also have to factor in the big advantage here with this game being played in Washington. Husky Stadium is one of the more difficult places for opposing teams to play well. There’s no question this place is going to be electric given this being a Top 10 showdown. We just saw Stanford struggle on the road against a UCLA team that isn’t as talented as the Huskies and don't have near the home field edge.

Home favorites who have gained 6.25 or more yards/pay in 4 straight games with 8 or more starters returning, including the quarterback are 57-25 (70%) ATS since 1992. Take Washington! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Connecticut + 

Even with the massive spread, books know they are going to get a lot of action on this game. The betting public has a hard time not playing these weekday games. Oddsmakers have inflated this line, knowing the public money will be all on the Cougars.

They really have no choice here but to set a high number with the opponent being Connecticut. The Huskies aren’t a popular team and aren’t perceived to be any good. The public would much rather lay the points with a team like Houston than stomach backing the dog. Especially, when that team hasn’t covered a game all season.

While it’s been a rough go for Connecticut against the number, this team could easily be 3-1. The Huskies had a 24-21 lead late in the 4th quarter at Navy, but ended up losing 24-28. They also played well in their loss against Syracuse. They had a 23-19 edge in first downs and controlled the clock for 38 minutes and 30 seconds. The difference in the game being a 22-yard interception for a touchdown late in the 3rd quarter.

I know Houston isn’t going to overlook the Huskies after what happened last year. However, four touchdowns is a big number to be laying in a conference game. At the same time, Connecticut is going to be up for this game. They have a chance to show to play in the national spotlight against a highly ranked team. People also discredit their win over Houston last year, due to Greg Ward Jr. not playing.

Connecticut is holding teams to just 22.5 ppg and only 381 ypg. While not great, defense is one of the strengths of this team. Houston did struggle offensively a couple weeks ago against Cincinnati. The Cougars actually trailed 12-16 in the 4th quarter. Turnovers by the Bearcats late led to a very misleading 40-16 win. UConn isn't a team that's going to lay down, even if they are down big late. With a potential showdown against undefeated Navy on deck, I think the Cougars call off the dogs late in this one. 

The run defense for Houston has been outstanding of late. They have held each of their last 3 opponents to 33 yards or less. However, they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. It's also important to note that UConn has the ability to throw the ball. The Huskies come in completing 67.5% of their pass attempts against teams who on average are only allowing opposing QB's to complete 58.8%. 

We also find a solid system in play favoring a fade of the Cougars. Home favorites that are allowing 225 or less total yards in their last 3 games are 9-31 (22%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Connecticut! 

5* NCAAF Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma State +

I think we are getting exceptional value here on the Cowboys catching over a touchdown against what I think is a very overrated Baylor team. Oklahoma State was ranked in the Top 25 before a heartbreaking loss to Central Michigan at home. A game they should have won outright had it not been for a blown call in the final seconds that gave Central Michigan one last chance. It still didn't look good that the Cowboys were in a dogfight against the Chippewas, but that Central Michigan team is one of the better small-conference schools out there. 

I was really impressed with how Oklahoma State bounced back from that loss and defeated a very good Pitt team at home, when they could have easily come out demoralized. I look for them to carry over that momentum in a huge revenge spot against the Bears. Last year, Baylor went into Stillwater and beat the Cowboys 45-35, putting an end to Oklahoma State's perfect 10-0 start to the season. Keep in mind the Cowboys brought back 17 starters from that team, while Baylor only returned 10 and are not the same caliber a team without Art Briles at head coach. 

Once again the Bears have opened up the season with a cupcake schedule. Their first 3 games were against Northwestern State, SMU and Rice. Baylor beat Rice 38-10, which is actually not that great considering Rice lost to WKU 46-14 and Army 31-14. The win over SMU is also not that great, as the Mustangs were without star senior quarterback Matt Davis. Even then they went into the half tied 6-6 with SMU. 

I just haven't been impressed with the Baylor offense without Grobe overlooking the operations. Starting quarterback Seth Russell just doesn't look like the same player coming off a broken neck suffered last season. Just look at the production. Baylor has scored 55, 40 and 38 points in their first 3 games. In comparison to last year when they scored 56, 66 and 70 in their first 3 against SMU, Lamar and Rice. I just still think we are seeing a line here based off what Baylor has done in the past and not the team taking the field in 2016. It certainly seems that way with the Bears starting out 0-3 ATS. 

Oklahoma State's has the offensive fire-power to not only keep this came close, but to win this game outright. The Cowboys are averaging 44.3 ppg and are torching teams through the air. Oklahoma State is averaging 359 passing yards, which is 110 more yards than what their opponents are giving up on average. To give you an idea of the teams Baylor has faced, their opponents on average are only putting 145 ypg on the ground and 138 ypg through the air. 

Lastly, we have a huge system in play backing the Cowboys. Road underdogs with 8 or more offensive starters returning, including the QB, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 40-14 (74%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in the first month of the season. Take Oklahoma State! 

4* NCAAF Week 4 Vegas Line Mistake on Vanderbilt +

The fact that Vanderbilt just got annihilated last week at Georgia Tech as a 6-point dog, is going to have the betting public wanting nothing to do with this team. On the flip side, Western Kentucky is a team the public has fallen in love with of late. The Hilltoppers went 9-5 ATS last year in route to a 12-2 season. They played Alabama tough on the road and have won each of their other two games against Rice and Miami (OH). 

I just think WKU is way overvalued in this spot. This is not the same caliber a team as last year, as they lost their all-time leading passer in Brad Doughty, who ended his career with 4,289 yards more than the next best player on the all-time list. The offense isn't playing as fast as they were last year and I think they are going to struggle against a pissed off Vanderbilt defense. 

The Commodores might not appear to be a great defensive team after giving up 38 points and over 500 yards last week to Georgia Tech, but it's not easy preparing for the triple-option, especially for a team like Vanderbilt, who doesn't have a lot of previous experience against that style of offense. 

Those that have watched WKU, know they are a team that likes to throw the ball a lot. A big part of that is they can't run the ball. The Hilltoppers are only averaging 2.9 yards/carry on the ground and that's against teams who are allowing 4.2 yards/carry on average. This plays right into the strength of Vanderbilt's defense, which has a lot of talent in the secondary. 

Let's not forget the Commodores kept an even more explosive WKU offense in check last year, limiting the Hilltoppers to just 14 points and 247 total yards (only 209 passing). I know Vanderbilt's offense isn't anything to write home about, but they did put up 47 points against Middle Tennessee and WKU is far from dominant on that side of the ball. 

Not only is Vanderbilt playing with revenge, but they will have a chip on their shoulder after their poor showing last week. I have a lot of trust in their head coach Derek Mason and I think he has his team ready to roll on Saturday. The Commodores are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games aoff a road loss and 8-0 in their last 8 road games after getting outrushed by 200 or more yards in their previous game. Take Vanderbilt! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Blowout on Boise State -

I have no problem laying this double-digit spread on the Broncos Saturday at Oregon State. Boise State is loaded once again, while Oregon State is still in rebuilding mode. The Broncos did fail to cover their last game at home against Washington State, winning by just 3-points (31-28) as a 13-point favorite. The thing to keep in mind is that they were up 24-7 early in the 3rd quarter and 31-14 in the 4th quarter of that game. Washington State is a lot better than Oregon State and unlike the Beavers are equipped to play from behind with their ability to play at a fast pace and sling it through the air. 

Almost letting that one slip away should work in our favor, as it should have allowed head coach Bryan Harsin to have his players full attention in practice. Speaking of practice, Boise State has had two full weeks to prepare for this game. Harsin coached teams are 6-1 off a bye and that's a sign of a coach who really benefits from the extra time to prepare for an opponent. Keep in mind the Broncos are fighting to make a big bowl and whipping up on a Power 5 team will definitely help, even if it is Oregon State. 

The Beavers lost their opener 23-30 at Minnesota. While they covered the 13-point spread, I though Minnesota was getting way to much respect in that game. Oregon State got an early bye after that game and returned to host Idaho State. They won the game 37-7, but it was far from a dominant effort. The Beavers only outgained Idaho State by 55 yards, benefiting big time from 5 Bengals turnovers That's the same Idaho State team that lost 56-7 at Colorado, totaling a mere 96 yards of offense for the entire game (outgained by more than 500 yards). 

Last year Boise State played Idaho State in non-conference play and beat them 52-0, outgaining them by 300 yards. They also beat Washington out of the Pac-12, who absolutely destroyed Oregon State 52-7 at Reser Stadium. I know the Beavers are a better team than last year, but it's only marginally better. This is a huge step up in competition from what they have played in their first two games and I just think we are catching a decent number with the Beavers looking about as good as they could have in their first two games. 

I just see a major mismatch in talent in this one and a well-prepared Boise State team that isn't going to take this game lightly. Let's also not overlook the fact that Oregon State has had a miserable time covering the spread at home, going just 3-11 over the last 3 seasons. Broncos have been a great team to back off a non-cover, as they are 30-16 ATS in their last 46 after failing to cover their last game and are winning in this spot by an average of more than 2 touchdowns. Take Boise State! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total No Brainer on Wisconsin/Michigan St UNDER

It's not very often we see these low totals in today's college football, but it's for good reason in Saturday's Big Ten showdown between No. 11 Wisconsin and No. 8 Michigan State. Both of these teams are really good on the defensive side of the ball and have offenses built around running the football and controlling the time of possession to keep their defenses fresh. 

This one has a defensive battle written all over it, as I could easily see this being a 17-13 type of game. I know Michigan State put up 38 points last week against what most people perceived to be a very good Notre Dame team, but that Irish defense is not very good and had already given up a huge number to Texas. The Spartans also benefited in that game from 3 Notre Dame turnovers, two scoring drives of less than 40 yards. 

They simply aren't going to be able to move the ball with that kind of success against the Badgers. Wisconsin held LSU to just 14 points and 257 yards of total offense in their opener. The next week they held Akron to 10 points and 224 yards. Their last game against Georgia State, saw them allow 17 points but only 299 total yards. That's with an offense that has struggled to stay on the field. They matchup well with Michigan State, as the Spartans strenght is their running game and that's what Wisconsin's defense is built to stop. Almost no one is giving Wisconsin a chance in this game, which only adds more fuel to the fire for this Badgers defense. 

Michigan State's offense won't be the only ones struggling. The Spartans are alway strong defensively under Dantonio and this year looks to be no different. They really did a number on the Irish last week. I know Note Dame put up 28 points, but 21 of those came after the Spartans built up a comfortable 36-7 lead. Wisconsin is playing a backup quarterback and without their best player in running back Corey Clement. They are going to try and grind out the clock and play it safe on offense with a lot of runs and hope the defense gives them a chance to win this game late.

UNDER is 8-0 in the Badgers last 8 after 2 straight games where they held 34 or more minutes of possession and 24 or more first downs. It's also 6-0 in their last 6 after playing their last two games at home, 11-3 in their last 14 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing and 5-1 in their last 6 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is 7-3 in the Spartans last 10 after they played a game with 450 or more total yards. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Situational Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +

The betting public loves Alabama so much and simply can't help themselves, even when it's clearly a horrible spot to back the Crimson Tide. That's exactly what we have here with Alabama laying a ridiculous 44 points against a Kent State team that most will see as having no business even being on the same field. 

What you have to realize here is that this is an awful spot for Alabama. They know they can come into this game and win comfortably playing their "C" game. Sitting at No. 1 in the poll, they also have no incentive to blowout the opponent. On top of that, this is a massive letdown spot. Alabama is coming off an emotional win at Ole Miss, where they had to rally from a 24-3 deficit and hold on to beat the Rebels 48-43. 

You also have to look back over the years and realize that Saban and the Crimson Tide don't cover these big numbers often. This is also a team that Saban isn't going to want to rub it in on. He played his college football at Kent State back in the 70's and when the lead is comfortable he'll call of the dogs and bring in the subs. I look for a very vanilla offense that just does what it needs to do. I actually think given how much they have struggled to run the ball in their first 3 games (by their standards), that's going to be a primary focus in this contest. That's going to keep the clock moving and plays into the strength of the Kent State defense, which is only giving up 3.2 yards/carry (only allowed 150 rushing yards to Penn State). 

Alabama is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a losing record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. It's also worth pointing out that Kent State is a very experienced team, as they brought back 18 starters from last year. That sets them up in a very profitable situation, as underdogs of 31.5 or more points who have 17 or more returning starters are 49-20 (71%) ATS since 1992. Take Kent State! 

5* NCAAF Friday Night No Limit Top Play on Wyoming - 

This is by far the worst of the three games on the schedule for Friday. With other options out there, I think the betting public is going to stay clear. Not only do they not follow these small conference schools, they see both as bad teams.

I actually think we are getting some value here with Wyoming only laying a field goal. Revenge is a huge motivator in college football. The Cowboys have 17 returning starters who haven’t forgot about last year’s embarrassing 48-29 home loss to the Eagles.

I know the home team has an edge in these weekday games on short rest, but I don’t think that’s the case here. Eastern Michigan doesn’t exactly have a big home field advantage. Hard to get fans to come to games when you are 15-36 at home over a 10-year span coming into the season.

Wyoming’s win over Northern Illinois at home let me know this team was for real. I came in expecting a big improvement with all those starters back. The Cowboys are also in year three under head coach Craig Bohl, who I really like. Bohl was previously the head coach at FCS power North Dakota State, where he went 104-32 from 2003 to 2013.

It’s also worth noting that Wyoming’s 17-52 loss at Nebraska wasn’t near as bad as the final looks. The Cowboys actually went into the 4th quarter of that game down by just 7 (17-24). They simply imploded with turnovers. They had six on the game and four straight in the 4th quarter.

Eastern Michigan is also a much improved team, but they are still picked to finish in the bottom of the MAC. They figure to be without a key weapon offensively. Running back Shaq Vonn is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Vonn has 21 carries for 166 yards and 2 scores (7.9 yards/carry).

Wyoming’s offense is built on their ground game. I know Eastern Michigan comes in only giving up 3.2 yards/carry, but it’s misleading. The teams they have faced only average 2.9 yards/carry on the season. Keep in mind they had zero answer for the Cowboys running game last year, as Wyoming racked up 430 yards.

Eastern Michigan is just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 against teams who average 4.75 or more yards/carry. The Eagles are also just 7-23 ATS in last 30 home games after playing a non-conference game and 1-9 in their last 10 off a win by 17 or more points. Take Wyoming! 

4* Clemson/Georgia Tech ATS Annihilator on Clemson - 

Laying points in these weekday games can be scary, but I have to side with the Tigers in this one. Clemson isn’t getting near the love they were to start the season. A big part of that is a mere 6-point win at Auburn in their opener an another 6-point win at home against Troy. Both of which they failed to cover the spread.

On the flip side of this, Georgia Tech is getting a lot more respect after their 3-0 start. However, the Yellow Jackets resume isn’t anything to get excited about. One of those wins was against FCS foe Mercer and the other two against Boston College and Vanderbilt.

The Commodores already lost at home to South Carolina, so that’s nothing to get excited about. They also could have easily lost to BC. Georgia Tech trailed 14-7 with less than 6 minutes in the 4th quarter. The same BC team that just lost 49-0 to Virginia Tech this past Saturday. 

A lot of people are going to point to Clemson playing Georgia Tech’s triple-option on short rest. You are kidding yourself if you think the Tigers didn’t start preparing for this game last week and in the offseason. They certainly weren’t worried about losing to South Carolina State. A team that had already lost to UCF 38-0 and Louisiana Tech 53-24.

Keep in mind they already got some work against the option look in their opener against Auburn. While the offense struggled in that game, the defense was excellent. Clemson held Auburn to just 87 yards on 41 rushing attempts (2.1 yards/carry). The same Auburn offense that just put up 236 yards on the ground against a solid Texas A&M defense.

Going back to Georgia Tech’s game against Boston College. The Eagles held hem to just 238 yards in that game, only giving up 119 yards on the ground. It’s also worth pointing out that last year Clemson held the Yellow Jackets to just 71 yards on 42 attempts. That came on the heels of a crazy game at home against then No. 6 Notre Dame. 

The one big positive from the Tigers blowout win last week, is the offense gained some confidence. I think they come out looking to make a statement. Especially, with this being a prime time game and Clemson currently not in the Top 4.

Georgia Tech’s defense has not been tested by a quality offense in their first 3 games. Yet they are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.6% of their passes. That’s against team’s who on average are only completing 55.6% of their pass attempts. I think this one gets ugly in a hurry and the Yellow Jackets are not a team that’s built to play from behind. Take Clemson! 

5* NCAAF SEC Game of the Year on Missouri +

I absolutely love the value we are getting here with the Tigers as a touchdown underdog at home against the Bulldogs. Missouri is flying way under the radar this season. I know they lost their opener 11-26 at West Virginia as a 10-point dog, but Morgantown is one of the most difficult places to play in college football. Missouri also played well enough to not only cover, but win that game outright. They had 26 first downs to the Mountaineers 24 and were only outgained on the game by a mere 32 yards. The Tigers bounced back in a big way, winning and covering in a 61-21 blowout win over Eastern Michigan last week. Still that's not viewed as an impressive win and the public will pay more attention to their 15-point loss to West Virginia.

Most know the Tigers no longer have Gary Pinkel at head coach. They replaced him with last year's defensive coordinator Barry Odom, keeping the continuity from one of the best defenses in the nation last year (16.6 ppg). The big move came on the offensive side of the ball, as Odom brought in Josh Heupel to be the new offensive coordinator. Heupel installed a much more fast-paced spread it out offense and it's paying dividends. 

While Missouri only managed 11 points against West Virginia, they had 462 yards of total offense. Doing so with a balanced attack, rushing for 180 yards and throwing for 282. Last week they racked up a ridiculous 647 yards. Sophomore quarterback Drew Lock is thriving in this new offense. He's already thrown for 730 yards and 6 touchdowns. Keep in mind that Missouri only averaged 13.6 ppg and 281 ypg last year. Lock, who started the last 8 games only had 1,332 yards and 4 touchdowns. 

Now we look at Georgia, who I think is one of the more overrated teams in the country. The Bulldogs were fortunate to win their opener against North Carolina. They trailed 24-14 late in the 3rd quarter before the Tar Heels imploded. What's even more concerning is last week's performance against Nicholls State, which they ended up winning 26-24 as a ridiculous 53-point favorite. That was with a 66-yard touchdown pass and 24-yard fumble returned for a touchdown (trailed 14-13 prior to those two big plays in a span of less than 2 minutes). 

The other big key here is that this is a home game for Missouri with kickoff scheduled for 7:30 EST. Memorial Stadium in Columbia is no easy place to play, especially in a night game. With Georgia being ranked, this crowd is going to be crazy. It's also worth noting the Tigers are out for serious revenge here. They had to feel like they should have won last year's game, which they lost 6-9. They also haven't forgot about the embarrassing 34-0 blowout loss at home they suffered the last time Georgia visited town. I think the Tigers will win this game outright. Take Missouri! 

5* NCAAF Non-Conference Total of the Month on Colorado/Michigan UNDER

While I think there's some value here with Colorado catching all those points, I believe the real value is on the total and this one going under the mark set by the books. Everyone knows that Michigan is a great defensive team, but you might be surprised to learn it's Colorado who leads the country in total defense, allowing a mere 160.5 yards/game. In comparison, Michigan is giving up 281 ypg. 

Now I know the Buffaloes haven't had a tough first two opponents, but what they did against in-state rival Colorado State in the opener really stands out to me. That game was played on a neutral site and Colorado held them to 225 yards and just 7 points. They also forced 4 turnovers. Note that Colorado State put up 500 yards on them last year and returned 6 starters this season, including starting quarterback Nick Stevens. Coming into the season this looked like the Buffaloes best defense (9 returning starters) in years and it certainly appears to be the case. 

I know Michigan's offense has looked good in their first two games, but a lot of that has to do with the competition. They put up 63 on a Hawaii team that just played the previous week in Australia and 51 on a UCF team that didn't win a single game last year. 

I think points are going to be tough to come by for both teams and each is going to have to work to move the ball down the field. Keep in mind that for this game to go over the total of 56, these two have to average more than two touchdowns (14.0 points) per quarter. I just don't see that happening. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Situational ATS Annihilator on Alabama -

There will be some scratching their heads as to why Alabama is a double-digit road favorite against a team that has had their number and beat them outright each of the last two seasons. I believe it's for good reason and think this one could get ugly in a hurry. People use to say the same thing about Texas A&M after they upset the Crimson Tide in Alabama in 2012 and then nearly did it again in a 42-49 loss in 2013. Saban figured out the Aggies offense and the next year demolished them 59-0 as a mere 13-point favorite. The next year (last season) they won 41-23 as a 3-point road favorite. 

Saban doesn't take losing lightly and you can bet he's had this game circled for quite some time and has spent a few extra hours in the offseason game planning for Ole Miss. The Rebels looked incredible in the 1st half against Florida State in the opener (led 28-6), but were then outscored 39-6 the rest of the way. If the Seminoles can do that with a freshman quarterback, I see no reason why Alabama can't do the same. 

Keep in mind that this is not the same caliber a team that Ole Miss will feature compared to the last two seasons. They only returned 10 starters from last year and lost some big time talent on both sides of the ball. It's also important to note that it's taken two perfect games for the Rebels to beat Alabama the last two seasons. In 2014 they had to rally from a 14-3 deficit in the 1st half and last year needed 5 Alabama turnovers to win 43-37. 

Crimson Tide are 12-3 ATS under Saban in their last 15 road games after leading by 14 or more at the half in their previous two games and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games in the 1st half of the season. We also see that favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who are a top level team that is coming off a straight up win are 24-4 (86%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Alabama! 

4* NCAAF Week 3 Vegas Line Mistake on Central Michigan -

There's no denying that the Chippewas stole a win last week in Stillwater. Central Michigan's 30-27 win over Oklahoma State should have never of happened, as the refs blew a call that gave them a chance to score the game-winning touchdown. Regardless of the fact, that's still an incredible win for this program and even if they lost I would still like them in this spot. 

The Chippewas have one of the best kept secrets in senior quarterback Cooper Rush, who carved up the Oklahoma State defense for 368 yards and 4 touchdowns on 31 of 43 passing. He had at least 1 completion to 12 different receivers, which shows me he's taking what the defense gives him and not just focusing in on a couple guys. I look for Rush to have a huge game here against UNLV at home. The Rebels allowed 499 yards last week to UCLA and are coming off a season in which they allowed 33.7 ppg and 457 ypg. 

It's not just the offense that has me thinking Central Michigan can win here by 12 or more. The Chippewas get after it on defense. They held Oklahoma State to just 338 yards of total offense. What was impressive is they only gave up 124 of those yards in the 2nd half. I love how they matchup against UNLV in this one. The Rebels don't offer much of a passing threat. Starting quarterback Johnny Stanton has just 21 completions on the season and is only completing 52.5% of his attempts. Most of their damage comes on the ground and that plays right into the strength of the Chippewas defense, which held Oklahoma State to 58 yards rushing on 25 attempts. 

Both teams are coming off big games against Power 5 teams, which is cause for a letdown. However, I think Central Michigan is in the much better spot here. A big part of that is they won the game and how they won the game. This team is riding a wave of momentum. UNLV on the other hand is playing their second straight on the road and making the difficult trip east from the west coast. Note that UNLV has never won a game in Eastern Time Zone, going 0-9. Every loss has been by double-digits and the average loss by 28 ppg. Take Central Michigan! 

4* NCAAF Early Bird ATS Blowout on Rutgers - 

I really like the value we are getting here with Rutgers laying less than a touchdown at home against the Lobos. After getting embarrassed on the road in Week 1 at Washington, the Scarlet Knights bounced back with a solid showing in a 52-14 blowout win at home against Howard. However, they did fail to cover as a massive 43-point favorite, leaving them at 0-2 ATS on the season. I believe the fact that Rutgers has failed to cover a game, has them undervalued going into this game. 

New Mexico won and covered in their opener against South Dakota as a 17-point favorite, but then came up short in a 31-32 loss at in-state rival New Mexico State as an 11-point favorite. That was an especially tough loss for the Lobos to swallow, as they blew a 31-22 4th quarter lead. Now they have to pack up and travel across the country for an early start time against a motivated Rutgers team that is better than people give them credit for and know this is a game they have to have if they want any chance at making a bowl game. 

Not only did the Lobos lose a heartbreaker to their in-state rivals, they lost arguably their best offensive and defensive player in running back Teriyon Gipson and linebacker Dakota Cox. Gipson was New Mexico's leading rusher back from last season and off to a great start with 243 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 20 carries. Cox led the Lobos with 97 tackles last season, 25 more than the next closest player and is leading the team with 20 tackles this year. Not having these two on field is going to make it that much harder for New Mexico to get up for this game. 

To say these two losses are big is an understatement. New Mexico isn't a team that likes to throw the football. They are only averaging 151 ypg through the air and haven't averaged more than 140 under head coach Bob Davie (in 5th season). Rutgers also is a team that has shown they can stop the run. They held Washington to just 91 yards on the ground and are only giving up 3.5 yards/carry. Cox is the heart and soul of the defense and even with him they weren't a great defensive team. 

Adding to this is a great system backing the Scarlet Knights. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who are off a win by 35 or more points are 52-18 ATS (74%) when facing an opponent that just played in a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. Take Rutgers! 

4* NCAAF Friday Night ATS No Brainer on Rice + 

The value here is with Rice catching well over 4 touchdowns at home. The Owls are going to come out desperate after losing their first two of the season. It’s not very often these small schools get to host a power 5 opponent. Especially one with Baylor's reputation. In fact, it's the first time they have hosted a ranked opponent in almost 20 years (1997). 

What makes this even more special is that it’s a weekday night game on ESPN. This is without question Rice’s Super Bowl this season. As for Baylor, it’s just another game on the schedule. One they could have trouble getting up for on short rest with their conference opener on deck next week. It’s also going to be hard for them to give the Owls a ton of respect given last year’s lopsided 70-17 win. 

I know Baylor has two big wins to start the season, but this isn’t the same caliber a team as years past. Last week they went into the half tied 6-6 with SMU. That’s not what have grown to expect from the Bears against non-conference opponents.

Keep in mind that SMU was without starting quarterback Matt Davis. They were also fortunate that the game wasn’t a lot closer. SMU only managed one touchdown in 5 trips inside the Baylor 20. Twice throwing an interception in the end zone.

The key thing here is that oddsmakers have no choice but to inflate this line. The betting public wants nothing to do with Rice after how bad they looked in their first two games. You have to think they set this line to where they feel the Owls can cover. Note that Baylor has been a poor play in Friday games, going just 1-4 ATS in their last 5.

Backing the Owls at home under head coach David Bailiff has been a wise move. He’s in his 11th year with the team and has gone 30-18 (63%) ATS at home with the Owls. Take Rice! 

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider Top Play on Cincinnati +

This is too many points for the Bearcats to be catching at home. Cincinnati is one of the more talented teams in the AAC and are capable of winning this game outright.

This is a very difficult spot for the Cougars, as weird things happen in these weekday games. This is the Bearcats chance to make a statement against a ranked team in a nationally televised game. Not to mention a shot at revenge from last year’s close loss.

A lot of people don’t realize just how hard it is to beat Cincinnati on the road. The Bearcats are 52-12 at home going back to 2006. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games as an underdog. The only loss a 7-point overtime loss to Louisville in 2013 as a 3-point dog. Last year they beat Miami (FL) 34-23 as a 6-point home dog. In 2014, they won 54-46 as a 2-point dog at home against ECU.

You also have to keep in mind how well Cincinnati played against Houston a year ago. They could have very easily won that game. The Bearcats outgained the Cougars 589 to 427 (+162). Cincinnati’s defense held Greg Ward Jr. to just 161 yards passing and picked him off twice.

Even with everything pointing to a close game, the books have no choice here but to inflate this line. The betting public isn’t going to take these factors into account. They are simply going to see a Top 10 team and lay the points.

Note that road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who closed out the previous season with 3 or more wins are just 17-50 (25%) ATS since 1992 in the first month of the season.

Home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who completed 62% or more of their passes the previous year are 26-5 (84%) ATS in the last 10 seasons. Take Cincinnati! 

4* NCAAF Late Night ATS No Brainer on Washington State +

No surprise here that the betting public is all over Boise State at home against a Washington State team that just lost outright as a 27.5-point home favorite to Eastern Washington. As bad as that loss looks, it has created huge value on the Cougars as a double-digit road dog. 

Washington State is going to come out here with a chip on their shoulder and are more than capable of putting up enough points to not only keep it close enough to cover, but win this game outright. Keep in mind they lost their opener to Portland State last year 17-24 as a 30-point home favorite and went on to finish the season with 9 wins. 

Offense certainly wasn't the problem in the upset loss last week. Washington State put up 42 points on 515 yards of total offense. Star junior quarterback, Luke Falk, did his part, completing 41 of 51 attempts for 418 yards and 4 scores. Getting double-digits with this talented of a offense, which can score in the blink of an eye, is just too good to pass up. Keep in mind that Boise State allowed 30 or more points 4 times last season. They were favored in all 4 of those games and lost all 4 of them outright. 

It's also worth pointing out that the Cougars fall into a great system here. Road underdogs that put up 475 or more total yards in their previous game with 8 or more returning offensive starters, including the quarterback, are 35-12 (75%) ATS in the first month of the season over the last 5 years. Take Washington State! 

5* NCAAF Non Conference Game of the Month on Virginia Tech + 

Coming into this season there was all kinds of hype surrounding the Volunteers. Not only were they getting picked to win the SEC East, but several had them winning the SEC Championship Game and going to the playoffs. Even after watching them almost lose at home against Appalachian State, I still think they are being overvalued by the books. 

Sometimes a team just doesn't show up, but there was some real concerning things that were pretty obvious in that game against App St. The Volunteers are weak on both sides of the ball in the trenches and starting quarterback Joshua Dobbs didn't develop into the passer that many expected. 

At the same time, their opponent this week is no slouch and arguably even more talented than what they faced in Week 1. Virginia Tech was trending in the wrong direction under legendary head coach Frank Beamer, so him retiring isn't as bad as some might think. On top of that, they made one of the top offseason hires by bringing in Justin Fuente, who did a remarkable job during around a Memphis program that was dead in the water. Plus, he was able to retain defensive coordinator Bud Foster, which was huge. 

Fuente is a brilliant offensive mind and the inability to score points against the top teams is what has plagued the Hokies over recent years. They also haven't got the greatest of quarterback play. His new look offense didn't disappoint in the opener, as they put up 458 yards and had 24 points at the half before calling off the dogs in the 2nd half. Juco transfer quarterback Jerod Evans looks like the real deal, as he threw for 221 yards and 4 scores on 20 of 32 passing. 

A key factor here is the Hokies have the talent and depth up front to take advantage of the weak offensive line for the Volunteers and really disrupt their offense. I know their opponent wasn't great (Liberty), but they held them to 160 yards and forced 4 turnovers. 

I really believe the Hokies are capable of winning this game outright, but all we need is for them to keep it within single-digits. Take Virginia Tech! 

3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Annihilator on TCU -

I believe the fact that TCU struggled to put away South Dakota State last week has created some great value on the Horned Frogs at home against what I feel is an Arkansas team that is no where close to as good as they were the past two seasons. What a lot of people don't realize is South Dakota State is one of the top FCS teams in the country. I don't think TCU came in expecting to get as big of a fight as they did and they certainly didn't want to show anything before playing the Razorbacks. 

Arkansas on the other hand went into the 4th quarter trailing Louisiana Tech 20-14. They ended up getting a touchdown to avoid the upset, but clearly this offense is down from a year ago. They only managed 297 total yards against a Louisiana Tech defense that only returned 3 starters. The most staggering stat was the fact that Arkansas only managed 106 yards rushing on 40 attempts. That comes out to a lousy 2.7 yards/carry. 

I think TCU's defense is going to look like a completely different unit from what we saw in Week 1. They are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder and will certainly be motivated against a SEC opponent. 

The biggest key here is the Horned Frogs are loaded once again on the offensive side of the ball. They put up 662 yards in their opener and Texas A&M transfer, Kenny Hill, looks to be a perfect fit for their style of play. Hill went 33 of 49 for 439 yards and 2 touchdowns, while also rushing for 45 yards and 3 scores. I just don't think the Razorbacks can keep pace offensively and they aren't a team that's built to play from behind. 

The Horned Frogs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games, 20-8 ATS in their last 28 after putting up 42 or more points in their previous game and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Arkansas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 in September. Take TCU! 

3* NCAAF Vegas Line Mistake on Rice +

I believe we are seeing a classic example of a team being way overvalued after a big upset win in Week 1. Army laid it all on the line in their impressive 28-13 win at Temple as a 14-point dog to start the season. Now they are laying over a touchdown against a team they have lost two each of the last two seasons. Keep in mind it's a whole different mentality going into a game as the dog and having nothing to lose, to all the sudden being the heavy favorite. 

I know Rice didn't look good in their opener against Western Kentucky, but the Hilltoppers feature one of the more explosive offensive attacks in the country. Something Rice simply isn't built to stop (lost by 39 at home to WKU last year). They are much better suited at stopping the run and that's basically all Army does. Last week they held WKU to just 97 yards on 30 attempts. With 9 starters back on defense and having played the Knights the last two years, the Owls are going to be at disadvantage like a lot of team typically are when they have to play Army with just 1 week to prepare. 

Rice has had zero problems scoring on Army's defense the last two times these teams have faced off. They put up 41 in 2014 at Army and 38 last year. The Knights are not as good on defense as their performance against Temple would suggest. More than anything, Temple beat themselves with 3 turnovers and it certainly didn't help matters that they were minus one of the best backs the AAC has to offer in Jahad Thomas. 

Army is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 after holding their previous opponent to 20-points or less and 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 following a SU win. The Owls are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 after giving up 40+ points. Take Rice! 

4* NCAAF Situational Undervalued Underdog on Wyoming +

I really like the value we are catching with Wyoming as a massive road dog against the Cornhuskers on Saturday. Nebraska is way overvalued in this spot off their impressive 43-10 win at home over Fresno State last week. All the focus for the Cornhuskers is on next week's huge showdown at home against Oregon, as that's their lone shot at a quality non-conference win going into Big Ten play. Unlike last week when they just kept laying it on the Bulldogs, Nebraska will be quick to call off the dogs to avoid getting any of their key players hurt. 

At the same time, this Wyoming team is a lot better than most people realize. The Cowboys went a mere 2-10 last year, but were one of the least experienced teams in the country. They returned 17 starters and 50 lettermen for 2016 and came out an upset Northern Illinois 40-34 at home in their opener last week. They finished with 488 yards of total offense, with 240+ yards through the air and on the ground. 

This is Wyoming's only shot at a Power 5 conference and have no reason not to lay everything on the line with UC Davis on deck. I actually think the Cowboys could put a scare into the Cornhuskers, as I just don't see Nebraska taking them seriously. 

It's worth noting that the Cornhuskers are just 23-41 ATS in their last 64 off a home blowout win by 28 or more points, only winning in this spot by an average of 11.4 ppg. One of the reasons Wyoming was able to escape with a win over Northern Illinois, was they took care of the football and that bodes well for a cover this week. The Cowboys are a dominant 17-3 ATS in their last 20 road games after a contest where they didn't commit a turnover. Take Wyoming! 

5* NCAAF Friday Night No Limit Top Play on Syracuse + 

We are seeing great value here with the Orange catching more than two touchdowns at home against the Cardinals in this early ACC Atlantic showdown. The books simply had no choice but to inflate this line after the betting public watched Louisville go up 56-0 in the first half against Charlotte in route to an easy cover as a massive 38.5-point favorite. The Orange on the other hand needed a 4th quarter touchdown to cover by just 2.5-points at home against Colgate. 

You simply can't underestimate the advantage these teams playing at home have in these weekday games. Numerous upsets have come in this spot for ranked teams on the road, as they often struggle to match the intensity of the other side, especially when there's perceived to be a big game in talent like we have here. The motivational edge becomes that much stronger for Syracuse when you factor in that Louisville has arguably their biggest game of the season on deck at home against Florida State next week. 

With the talent that the Cardinals have on offense, Syracuse is going to have to put up some points to keep this one within the number. I believe they will do just that. The Orange brought in Dino Babers from Bowling Green to be their new head coach and with him comes the uptempo offense he learned under Art Briles in his 4 years as an assistant. It didn't take long for him to have an impact, as Syracuse put up 554 yards of total offense in their opener. It might not seem that important given the opponent, but keep in mind that Syracuse only had one game all season last year where they had more than 370 yards of total offense. 

Louisville's defense doesn't really know what to expect here and tempo can really turn a game around in a hurry. On top of that, the ability to score points quickly also keeps Syracuse in a position for a backdoor cover late if things don't go their way early. The Cardinals aren't going to be looking to pad their stats like Week 1, the primary focus here is to leave with a win and not get anyone hurt before facing the Seminoles. Take Syracuse! 

5* NCAAF Ole Miss/FSU ATS No Brainer on FSU - 

It’s hard to believe that just 5 years ago the Rebels were coming off a 2-10 campaign. Hugh Freeze has done a remarkable job turning this program around. They have been in the national spotlight the past two years and as a result are getting a lot of respect to start 2016.

I just feel that Ole Miss is in line for a down year. I know they have a great talent at quarterback in Chad Kelly, but he can’t do it on his own. He’s one of just 3 starters back on offense. They may also be without two projected starters. Running back Jordan Wilkins was lost for the season and wide out Markell Pack is questionable. 

Ole Miss is also way down on the offensive line, where they have to replace all 5 starters. That includes the departure of star tackle Jeremy Tunsil. Arguably the best offensive linemen in the country last season.

The inexperience up front is a key part to why I like the Seminoles. While Florida State loses a lot on defense, they get 3 of their 4 starters back on the defensive line. It has the makings of the best front four for the Seminoles in years. I look for them to put constant pressure on Kelly and as a result the Ole Miss offense will struggle to score.

It’s not just FSU’s defense that has the edge in the trenches. The Seminoles have all 5 starters back on what will be one the best offensive lines in the country. Ole Miss returns just 3 starters in their front 7 on defense. The biggest loss being star defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche, who always seemed to play his best in these big games. 

If Florida State’s offensive line has their way as I expect, they are going to run all over them. The Seminoles have one of the best running backs in the country in Dalvin Cook. They also will be starting dual threat red-shirt freshman quarterback Deondre Francois.

Simply put, Florida State is the more talented team and playing much closer to home. All the talk about the Seminoles potentially making the playoffs is legit. We saw Ole Miss get beat badly in a couple games last year and I have a feeling this one could get ugly. Take Florida State! 

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider Top Play on Texas + 

As excepted, the betting public is all over Notre Dame. They just see last year’s result and gladly lay the small number on the road. I wouldn’t be so fast to back the Irish in this one.

Notre Dame is always hyped coming into the season and even more so off a good year. I’m not saying they won’t be a good team, but I think they are way overvalued at No. 10 in the country.

Sure the Irish have two really good quarterbacks in DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire. Kelly has said he’s going to play both and I just don’t see that being a good thing. Just look at Ohio State last year with J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones splitting snaps. It just makes it that much harder to form chemistry. Each quarterback is also playing with a ton of pressure, as they don’t want to lose their job.

Notre Dame also lost a lot of last year’s team. That includes star running back C.J. Prosise and wide out Will Fuller. They also lost 3 starters on the o-line and won’t be as good up front. Defensively they have just 5 starters back. The biggest loss being linebacker Jaylon Smith. He would have been a Top 10 NFL draft pick if not for the knee injury suffered against Ohio State in the bowl.

On the flip side of this, I think Texas is a program on the rise and 2016 will be the year Strong gets them back on track. Poor quarterback play has plagued the Longhorns over recent years. I believe that’s about to change. While a starter hasn’t been named, all signs point to true freshman Shane Buechele.

Buechele is a highly touted dual-threat signal caller, who I think would be a major upgrade over Tyrone Swoops. It’s also worth noting that Texas will be opening things up more in 2016. That coming from new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert. He helped Tulsa’s offense average more than 500 ypg last year. He’s also known for his time with Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo at Eastern Illinois.

On top of that, Texas should have their best o-line in the Strong era. They also have one of the most talented backfields in the country with Chris Warren and Jerrod Heard. The defense was a liability last year, but should be greatly improved.

You also can’t ignore the revenge factor. The Longhorns are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after getting embarrassed last year. Take Texas! 

4* NCAAF Late Night No Doubt ATS Cover on Auburn +

I just feel the value is with Auburn catching over a touchdown on their home field. I know the Tigers weren’t great last year, but they had 4 losses by 8-points or less. They also played Alabama extremely well in their finale. They followed it up with a blowout win over a very good Memphis team in their bowl game.

Last year, Auburn’s quarterback situation was a mess. Jeremy Johnson was suppose to be the next big thing and he struggled. It forced red-shirt freshman Sean White to get forced into action. While White struggled early, he got better as the season went on and won the job this offseason. I think last year’s experience is going to pay off big time. When they get good quarterback play, Auburn’s offense has been very tough to stop under Malzahn.

I think they are going to surprise some people with how well they move the ball in this game. Clemson’s defense is depleted. Over the last 2 years, they have had 11 different players on that side of the ball taken in the NFL Draft. Seven of those are players from last year’s team.

I know Clemson recruits well on that side of the ball, but they simply aren't going to be as good. Keep in mind they also won’t have defensive end Austin Bryant, who was expected to start this year.

Everyone has been hyping up Clemson all offseason. I believe it’s forced oddsmakers to inflate this line, creating big time value on Auburn. Night games are win the home crowds are the most rowdy. Add in the opponent and this being the season opener and Jordan-Hare is going to be nuts. I think Auburn gives Clemson all they can handle and keeps it within a touchdown and an outright win isn't out of the question. Take Auburn! 

5* Week 1 No Limit Game of the Month on Texas A&M - 

We have an unranked team laying points against a ranked opponent and I agree with the experts. It’s a prime example of why you can’t trust early season rankings in college football. UCLA is clearly coming into this year overvalued, while A&M is flying under the radar.

The Aggies have struggled to be a serious threat in the SEC West since Johnny Football left town. You have to keep in mind that even the bottom teams in the SEC West are still really good teams. This could be the year they surprise people and contend with the likes of Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss.

Texas A&M technically only has 6 starters back on offense, but it’s more like 8. They added in Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight to take over at quarterback. They will also plug in Oklahoma transfer Keith Ford at running back. Add in all the playmakers at wide receiver, and this offense is going to be tough to stop.

What gets overlooked with the Aggies is the talent they have on the defensive side of the ball. Texas A&M made huge strides on defense last year under new d-coordinator John Chavis. I look for even more improvements in year two, as 7 starters are back.

UCLA is getting a lot of love from the press because of the hype surrounding sophomore QB Josh Rosen. He’s a great talent, but he’s one of just 4 starters back on the offensive side of the ball. They also lost some star players on the defensive side of the ball.

There’s also a key factor here that most won’t even think about. Texas A&M’s new offensive coordinator is Noel Mazzone, who held the same position at UCLA the last 4 years. He’s going to be able to provide valuable insight on who and where to attack the Bruins on both sides of the ball.

Lastly, you can’t ignore the value of home field advantage in this one. Especially when you are dealing with a SEC power like Texas A&M. The Aggies are 26-2 in their last 28 home openers. I fully expect them to make it 27-2 and easily cover this small number. Take Texas A&M! 

4* NCAAF Undervalued Underdog on Missouri + 

Morgantown is a difficult place for opposing teams to play, but I just feel this is too many points. I’m not always a big fan of first year head coaches, but I like Odom at Missouri. He was with the team last year and knows the personnel.

I’m also not as high on the Big 12 as others. I think the conference is consistently overrated. The Tigers have proven they can compete with the big boys in the SEC and have dominated outside of it. Since Missouri joined the SEC, they are 16-2 SU in non-conference games.

The biggest key here is that this year’s team is going to be greatly improved over last year’s squad. I look for a big second year for sophomore quarterback Drew Lock, who started the last 8 games in 2015.

On the other side of the ball, Missouri has 8 starters back to a unit that allowed just 16.2 ppg and 302 ypg. While Odom is no longer the defensive coordinator, you can bet his same schemes will be in play. This should be one of the better defenses in the SEC this year.

West Virginia does have 8 starters back, but will be minus starting left guard Adam Pankey. He’s suspended for the opener. Starting quarterback Skyler Howard isn’t anything special. Sure he looked good in the bowl game, but that was against a horrible Sun Devils' defense. He was mediocre at best during the season and I think that’s what we will see this year.

My big concern with West Virginia is their defense. They only returned 4 starters from last year, but it’s more like 3 now. Starting safety Dravon Askew-Henry tore his ACL and is out for the year. With Askew-Henry out of the picture, West Virginia has to replace their top 6 tacklers. They also lost linebacker Brendan Ferns to a torn ACL. Ferns likely would have started this game with projected starter Xavier Preston suspended.

If it wasn’t for how bad Missouri’s offense looked last year, this line would be much lower. Based on my assessments of these two teams, I think we should be seeing a line closer to 3 not 10. That’s unbelievable value on the Tigers. Take Missouri! 

4* NCAAF Situational ATS No Brainer on Houston + 

This is technically a neutral site game, as it’s not being played on Houston’s home field. However, this is in the Cougars back yard and I fully expect it to feel like a home game for them. Not to take anything away from Oklahoma, but they shouldn’t be laying double-digits here.

Don’t let the fact that Houston isn’t from a Power 5 conference fool you. This Cougars team is the real deal and proved it last year when they knocked off 3 Power 5 opponents. None more impressive than their 14-point win over a talented Florida State team in the Peach Bowl. Keep in mind Houston was a 7-point dog in that contest.

What makes the Cougars such a dangerous team is the weapon they have at quarterback. Greg Ward Jr. is one of the best players no one is talking about. He’s a legit threat to win the Heisman this year amongst all the heavy favorites. Not only can he beat you with his arm, but he can burn defenses with his legs.

With him at quarterback, Houston averaged 236 ypg on the ground and another 248 ypg through the air. Only two other teams averaged at least 235 ypg both rushing and passing. Those other two were Oregon and Baylor. Say what you want about Oklahoma’s defense, Ward and the Cougars will be able to move the ball against them.

Houston is also a better defensive team than people realize. Just look at what they did against Dalvin Cook from FSU in the bowl game last year. They held him to just 33 yards on 18 attempts (1.8 yards/carry). They also picked of Seminoles quarterback Sean Maquire four times.

This team knows how to create turnovers. No one has been better them in that department the last 3 years. During this stretch they have 108 forced turnovers. The next best team in the country over this period has 90. Turnovers not only will allow Houston to keep this close, but potentially win outright.

The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September and 6-0 in their last 6 as an underdog. Oklahoma on the other hand is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on a neutral site. Take Houston! 

4* NCAAF Situational ATS Annihilator on Colorado - 

We have two programs headed in different directions. Colorado should be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2016. The Buffaloes have 18 starters back from a team that was much better than their 4-9 record would suggest. Colorado is also now in year 4 under head coach Mike MacIntyre and this is without a doubt the best team he has fielded in his tenure. 

I know the Rams went 7-6 last year without McElwain, but they did so with most of his recruits playing key roles (15 returning starters). This year they only have 10 starters back and could struggle to get to a bowl game. 

Last year Colorado State overcame the loss of all-time leading passer Garrett Grayson. Sophomore Nick Stevens stepped in and threw for 2,679 yards with 21 touchdowns.

However, his success had a lot to do with the talent at wide receiver. Most notably Rashad Higgins, who had 75 catches for 1,062 yards and 8 scores. The Rams in total lose each of their top 4 receiving options and won’t be near as effective through the air.

It’s not just the offense that figures to take a step back. Colorado State only has 4 starters back on defense. They are depleted both up front on the defensive line and the secondary. I look for them to give up well over 30.0 ppg and 400 ypg in 2016.

Now let’s look at Colorado. The Buffaloes have 9 starters back on each side of the ball. They have an experienced senior quarterback in Sefo Liufau, lots of talent at wide receiver and their best o-line in years.

Defensively this team made huge strides last year. Going from allowing 39.0 ppg and 461 ypg in 2014 to giving up just 27.5 ppg and 417 ypg. That was with them transitioning to a new scheme under new DC Jim Leavitt. I see them only getting better in year two under Leavitt. Not only do they have 9 starters returning, but they also get back senior nose tackle Josh Tupou.

Colorado is the more talented team on both sides and will dominate the line of scrimmage. On top of that. They also have a big edge in coaching. I have the Buffaloes winning this one by double-digits rather easily. Take Colorado! 

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider Weekday ATS Annihilator on Rice +

We are seeing an inflated line here based on last year’s results. Western Kentucky is coming off a school-record 12 win season and conference title. Rice on the other hand didn’t even make a bowl game. On top of that, the Owls got destroyed at home by the Hilltoppers by 39 points.

I like the revenge angle here, as Rice will be out to make a statement against the leagues top team from a year ago. At the same time, it’s going to be hard for WKU to give the Owls their full attention after last year’s blowout win. On top of that, they could find themselves looking ahead to next weeks contest at Alabama.

That’s not the biggest reason to back Rice in this one. That would be the Hilltoppers having to replace star quarterback Brandon Doughty. The 2015 C-USA Offensive Player of the Year. Doughty put this team on his back last season, throwing for 5,055 yards with 48 touchdowns to just 9 picks.

The new starter will be junior Mike White, who sat out last year after transferring from USF. White might be a good fit for Brohm’s style of play, but there’s going to be a decline in quarterback play.

Not only does WKU figure to score less often, but they likely will give up a few more big plays in 2016. The Hilltoppers only have 4 starters back from a defense that allowed 405 ypg last year. They only have one starter back on the d-line and lost their two star cover corners.

Rice will also be transitioning to a new QB, but it won’t take much to match last year’s numbers. Starter, Driphus Jackson only threw for 2,348 yards and 18 touchdowns. The Owls will be more focused on the run game, where they have 4 capable runners to attack the Hilltoppers.

The other key here is Rice should be greatly improved on defense this year. Last season they were inexperienced and had injury problems. Now they are loaded with 9 starters back and are strong in the secondary, which is critical against WKU. Owls have gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the month of September and they make it 5 of 6 with a cover on Thursday. Take Rice! 

4* NCAAF Situational ATS No Brainer on Wake Forest -

The betting public is on Tulane in this one and I’m not all that surprised. It’s hard to back a team to win by more than 17 when they only averaged 17.4 ppg the previous year. Especially when that team has averaged fewer than 19.0 ppg in each of the last 4 seasons.

What people are overlooking is that Clawson stepped into a bad situation when he took over in 2014. The players left over weren’t great fits for his schemes. As a result, Clawson had to play way more underclassmen than he would have liked.

As bad as last year’s offensive numbers were, they were a major improvement over 2014. Wake went from averaging just 216 ypg to 333 ypg. The 54.2% increase in production was the second best in the country. I look for even more improvement on this side of the ball in 2016, as 9 starters are back on offnse. That includes junior quarterback John Wolford, who already has 22 career starts.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Deacons put up a big number here. Tulane is going to struggle defensively. While they have 8 starters back on that side, they gave up 36.3 ppg last year. They also are adjusting to a whole new scheme with a new coaching staff.

The other key here is that Wake Forest doesn’t figure to need to score a ton to cover. Tulane only averaged 19.7 ppg last year and have just 5 starters back. They also are making a major transition to the spread option offense.

Wake Forest was actually a decent defensive team given how bad the offense performed. The Demon Deacons only gave up 24.6 ppg and 364 ypg last season. They have 7 starters back and should be just as strong. Tulane scored 14 or fewer in 6 of their 12 games last year and could struggle to reach double-digits here.

We also have a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Green Wave. Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points in the first month of the season that ended last year on 2 or more game losing streak against an opponent that ended on a 4 or more game losing streak are a mere 7-28 (20%) ATS since 1992. Take Wake Forest! 

4* NCAAF Season Opener ATS No Brainer on Hawaii +

We are seeing some great value here with the Rainbow Warriors catching almost 3 TD’s. The books really have no choice here but to inflate this line.

The betting public has a horrible time backing teams like Hawaii, who have been so bad for so long. On top of that, the Warriors only managed 17.6 ppg last year, while giving up 35.6 ppg.

However, I believe we are going to see major improvements offensively in 2016 for Hawaii. New head coach Nick Rolovich is bringing back the spread attack. Something the team thrived with when he was the OC here back on 2010 and 2011. It's also had success the last 4 years in Nevada. 

You also have to take into consideration that Cal is not a great defensive team. The Bears allowed 30.7 ppg and 454 ypg last year. They only have 4 starters back on that side of the ball, with each of their top 6 tacklers no longer around.

The big question is how will Hawaii’s defense keep Cal’s high-powered offense in check. Well, it will help that the Bears will no longer have Jared Goff at quarterback. Losing the No. 1 overall pick in the draft is going to have negative impact on the offense. Cal did bring in Texas Tech transfer Davis Webb, but he’s no Goff.

Keep in mind that the Bears are installing a new offense. However, the biggest key is the weapons lost at receiver. Cal’s top 6 passing options from last year are all gone. There’s going to be little chemistry between Webb and the new starters.

Lastly, you have to remember where this game is being played. This is a long way for both teams to travel. You also have to factor in that teams aren’t typically sharp in their opener away from home. The sloppier the game, the better chance Hawaii has of sticking around and keeping it close.

Rainbow Warriors are 21-8 ATS in the first 2 weeks of the season since 1992. That includes 5 straight covers in their opener. All against Pac-12 teams. Take Hawaii +19.5! 

5* Alabama/Clemson National Championship ATS No Brainer on Clemson +

Knowing Alabama’s history and how much the public likes to back the Crimson Tide, especially in big games like we have here, I think we are seeing some great value on Clemson catching a touchdown. I’m actually a bit surprised that the Tigers are getting this many points, given how they put it on an Oklahoma team that many thought was playing the best football of any team to close out the regular season.

One of the key things that Clemson was able to do against Oklahoma, that was a major factor in the outcome of that game, is take away the Sooners rushing attack. The Tigers held Oklahoma to just 67 rushing yards on 33 attempts, allowing a mere 2.0 yards/carry. That’s a good sign that they will be able to keep Alabama’s Derrick Henry in check, who only managed 75 yards on 20 carries against Michigan State.

I know the Crimson Tide were able to put up 38 points on Michigan State without Henry having a great game, at least by his standards, but you have to keep in mind the Spartans didn’t exactly have a great secondary. At the same time, Michigan State’s defense more than held their own early in that game, but you can only ask so much of a defense when the offense can’t move the ball. After watching Iowa get embarrassed by Stanford, it’s also clear that the Spartans were not one of the 4 best teams in the country, which makes it hard for me to be overly impressed with their win.

Not only was Clemson’s defense able to make life miserable for the Sooners’ offense, but the Tigers really showcased their offensive fire-power in that game. Clemson rushed for 312 yards, including 145 from starting quarterback Deshaun Watson. If you go back over the years and look at the teams that have given Alabama’s defense trouble, it’s the ones that have elite mobile quarterbacks who can beat you with both their arms and legs. Add in the Tigers’ ability to stop the run on defense and this is the ideal team that can not only hang with the Crimson Tide but beat them outright.

Clemson has a pretty strong history of not only covering the spread but beating elite teams on the road under head coach Dabo Swinney. Since Swinney took over as head coach the Tigers are 9-2 ATS in road games against efficient passing teams that complete 62% or more of their attempts, 8-1 ATS on the road versus teams who are dominant against the run, allowing 3.25 or less yards/carry and a perfect 6-0 ATS on the road against teams who are outscoring opponents by 17+ points/game. Take Clemson! 

4* W Virginia/Arizona St Cactus Bowl ATS No Brainer on Arizona State +

The thing I like about the Sun Devils is they had some impressive wins in the conference. They went on the road and upset UCLA 38-23, knocked off a talented Washington team 27-17 and had a couple of close loses to quality teams in Oregon (55-61) and Cal (46-48). West Virginia on the other hand, their most impressive wins came against the likes of Texas Tech and Texas, both of which came at home. The Mountaineers were able to keep it close against Oklahoma State at home (26-33), but were not competitive in their 3 other games against the top teams of the Big 12, losing by 20 to Oklahoma, 24 to Baylor and 30 to TCU.

A big advantage in this game that can’t be overlooked is the where the game will be played. Phoenix is a short 20-min drive from Arizona State’s campus in Tempe, while West Virginia has to travel clear across the country. This is going to feel a lot like a home game for the Sun Devils and that’s important to note. The Mountaineers were just 1-4 on the road this season and the lone win came against a Kanas team that finished 0-12.

Another big factor here that has me liking Arizona State, is the fact that Sun Devils head coach Todd Graham has a 5-2 record in bowl games. West Virginia on the other hand is just 1-2 in bowl games under head coach Dana Holgorsen and their last two have resulted in upsets. They lost 14-38 as a 4-point favorite against Syracuse in the 2012 Pinstripe Bowl and last year lost 37-45 as a 2-point favorite against Texas A&M in the Liberty Bowl.

West Virginia ended up finishing the year with the 27th ranked offense in the country at 463.4 ypg. However, those numbers are very misleading. The Mountaineers 12 opponents on average gave up 435 ypg, so they simply feasted on bad teams. This is backed up by how much the offense struggled against good teams in the Big 12 (only scored 10-points against a bad TCU defense).

The same thing can be said about West Virginia’s defense. The Mountaineers allowed just 23.2 ppg, but in their 4 games against Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State, they allowed an average of 44.8 ppg. Look for Arizona State and their 22nd ranked offense (474.0 ypg) to put up a big number and potentially win this game going away. Take Arizona State! 

5* College Football Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon +

*Still recommended at the current line of Oregon -7*

Oregon might very well be the best team in the country that no one is talking about. What a lot of people overlook with Oregon’s 9-3 record, is the fact that starting quarterback Vernon Adams was either not at 100% or on the sidelines in all 3 of the Ducks losses this year. No surprise that when Adams returned healthy, this team caught fire in the second half of the season with 6 straight wins to close out the year. Given their win at Stanford and blowout victory against USC, you could make a very strong argument that Oregon was the best team in the Pac-12 down the stretch.

On the flip side of this, I think the Horned Frogs are one of the more overrated teams in the country. TCU has an explosive offense and one of the most dynamic players in the country in quarterback Trevone Boykin, but there’s not a lot of impressive wins on the Horned Frog’s resume. I know they beat Baylor at home 28-21 in their final game, but keep in mind the Bears were down to 3rd straight quarterback Chris Johnson and the conditions were far from ideal.

What stands out to me is how fortunate TCU was to win against a lot of mediocre and bad teams. They only won 23-17 against a Minnesota team that went 2-6 in the Big Ten, needed a fluke tipped pass to beat Texas Tech 55-52, had to rally from a 18-point deficit against Kansas State and only beat Kansas at home 23-17. I personally don’t think the Horned Frogs should be ranked as high as they are and certainly should not be favored against the Ducks.

Keep in mind that TCU will be without one of their best players in wide out Josh Doctson, who had 79 receptions for 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns in just 10 games. No one else on the team had more than 40 receptions and the next closest in yards was Kolby Listenbee at 598.

As good as Boykin is, it’s going to be extremely hard for him to generate enough offense to keep pace with what their defense is going to allow on the other side of the ball. Even with Adams not healthy for a good chunk of the season, Oregon still managed to finish 4th in the country in total offense at 548.2 ypg. They had the 5th ranked rushing attack (287.8 ypg) and will be going up against a TCU defense that finished 72nd against the run (182.3 ypg).

Oregon is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against strong passing teams that average 250 or more yards/game and 11-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 years. TCU on the other hand is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral site. Take Oregon! 

3* Penn St/Georgia TaxSlayer Bowl Early Bird Annihilator on Penn State +

I just think there’s too many distractions going on at Georgia for the Bulldogs to be all that focused on their game against the Nittany Lions. New head coach, Kirby Smart, is still finishing up his duties as the defensive coordinator for Alabama, who is set to take on Michigan State in the playoff semifinals Thursday.

While the Bulldogs are looking ahead to 2016, I look for Penn State to come out extremely motivated against a well-recognized SEC opponent. Keep in mind that Nittany Lions’ head coach James Franklin knows a thing or two about Georgia, as he was the head coach at Vanderbilt for 3 seasons prior to taking over at State College last year.

While the Bulldogs were able to finish out the year with 4 straight wins, each of their last 3 came by a touchdown or less. They barely scraped by 20-13 at Auburn, needed overtime to knock off Georgia Southern 23-17 at home and had to hold on for a 13-7 win at Georgia Tech. I would argue that the Nittany Lions are better than all 3 of those opponents that Georgia struggled with down the stretch and given the circumstances the Bulldogs are in with Richt leaving, I wouldn’t be shocked if Penn State won this game outright.

Whenever a team isn’t 100% invested and lacking discipline, more times than not that shows up on the defensive side of the ball. That’s a huge key to why I like the Nittany Lions, as they don’t have the most explosive offense and would likely struggle to move the ball if Georgia was motivated for this game. Even if the Bulldogs come to play defensively, I still like the Nittany Lions’ chances of keeping this game close. That’s because they have a really strong defense of their own. Penn State finished the season ranked 15th in total defense, allowing just 324.3 ypg. Given the way Georgia’s offense struggled down the stretch, I look for the Nittany Lions defense to be the difference in this game.

Penn State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 after allowing more than 40 points. Georgia on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against at team with a winning record. Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Nittany Lions. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) and failed to cover 3 out of their last 4 games are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Penn State! 

5* Ole Miss/Oklahoma St Sugar Bowl ATS No Limit Top Play on Ole Miss -

I believe there’s a lot of reasons to like the Rebels to beat the Cowboys by more than a touchdown, but the biggest of them all is the mental state of Oklahoma State. While playing in the Sugar Bowl is quite an accomplishment for a team that went just 7-6 a year ago, it’s not going to seem like as big a deal due to how they finished the season. Sitting at 10-0 the Cowboys had a realistic shot at making the playoffs had they simply won at home against Baylor and in-state rival Oklahoma.

While you could argue that Ole Miss was also a team that came up short of their goals, as they had to be thinking playoffs when they upset Alabama on the road, the big difference is their losses that knocked them out of contention came much earlier in the season. If anything, the Rebels are riding a big wave of momentum after closing out the year with a 38-17 win against LSU and 38-27 win on the road against in-state rival Mississippi State.

Another thing to keep in mind with Ole Miss is they have a number of highly regarded NFL prospects on their team, including several potential first round selections. This is a chance for these players to increase their draft stock and end their careers on a high note. There’s also motivation here from last year’s embarrassing 3-42 loss to TCU in the Peach Bowl.

On top of all of this, Ole Miss is the much better and far more talented team in this matchup. Going 9-3 overall and 6-2 in the SEC West is far more impressive than finishing 7-2 in the Big 12. I know the Cowboys had a signature 49-29 win at home over TCU, but the Horned Frogs really struggled defensively this year and really gave that game away with 4 turnovers. TCU actually outgained Oklahoma State by 207 yards.

Add in the fact that the Cowboys were beat badly by the only other two legit teams in the Big 12 in Oklahoma and Baylor, plus the fact that they played a cupcake non-conference schedule and Oklahoma State might be the biggest fraud out there right now. I personally don’t think they are anywhere close to the 16th best team in the country and even if Ole Miss doesn’t play great, I still believe they win here by double-digits.

Rebels are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 non-conference games, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral site and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games played in January. Oklahoma State on the other hand is a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having won 8 or more of their last 10 games. Take Ole Miss! 

4* Stanford/Iowa Rose Bowl ATS No Brainer on Iowa +

This is an interesting matchup, as you have two teams that were right in the thick of the playoff race only to come up short, so you could argue that this a bit of a letdown spot for both teams. Typically I would be inclined to go against Iowa, given they suffered a devastating loss in their final game, while Stanford closed out the season with two impressive wins over Notre Dame and USC. However, I believe the Hawkeyes are going to be able to shake off the loss and get up for this game.

While they won’t have the chance of playing for a national championship, Iowa does have the opportunity to go down as one of the greatest teams in school history if they can get a win against the Cardinal. Iowa has already won a school-record 12 games, but the season won’t be viewed the same if they lose their final two. You also have to take into consideration that the Hawkeyes haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since 1958. Stanford on the other hand will be playing in their 3rd Rose Bowl in the last 4 years, so it’s not as big a deal to them.

The other big key here is that leading up to the Big Ten Championship Game, no one wanted to give Iowa any respect for their 12-0 start, as the Hawkeyes benefited from an easy schedule. Even though Iowa proved those doubters wrong with their performance against Michigan State, a win over the likes of Stanford would put those critics to rest and solidify the legacy of this team.

I know it came early in the season and the Cardinal likely weren’t giving Northwestern their full attention, but Stanford’s struggles against Northwestern certainly give optimism to Iowa backers in this game. The Hawkeyes went on the road and destroyed that same Wildcats team 40-10. At the same time, I think there’s something to be said about Michigan State beating Oregon and Michigan only losing by 7-points at Utah with Wolverine quarterback Jake Ruddock throwing 3 interceptions, including a 55-yard pick-six in the 4th quarter. Clearly the Big Ten stacks up well with the best of the Pac-12. 

The other big factor here for me, is Iowa has the talent defensively to contain Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey. Iowa finished the season ranked 9th in the country against the run, allowing just 114.9 yards/game and also gave up just 3.4 yards/carry. At the same time, I think the Hawkeyes are more than capable offensively of moving the ball against the Cardinal defense. Stanford gave up 231 rushing yards to Oregon and 299 to Notre Dame over their final 4 games and Iowa has one of the better rushing attacks in the country. 

Iowa is 40-17 ATS in their last 57 games against teams who average 200 or more rushing yards/game and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams who average 4.75 or more yards/carry. The Hawkeyes are also 17-4 ATS in their last 21 against teams who score 37 or more points/game and 10-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games after the first month of the season. Take Iowa! 

4* Notre Dame/Ohio St Fiesta Bowl ATS Annihilator on Notre Dame +

One of the key things that you have to look at when you breakdown bowl games is teams that will struggle to get motivated due to how they finished the regular season. I think we have a classic example of this with Ohio State. The Buckeyes came into this season as the odds on favorite to repeat as national champs and anything less was going to be a disappointment. Notre Dame is a quality opponent and the Fiesta Bowl is premier bowl on New Year’s Day, but it isn’t the playoffs and I just don’t see Ohio State being excited for this game.

I know Ohio State bounced back from their loss to Michigan State with a dominant performance on the road against rival Michigan, which might have some thinking they put that loss to the Spartans behind them. However, you have to keep in mind that with a win over the Wolverines and a Michigan State loss later that day, Ohio State would have won the Big Ten East title and could have played their way back into the playoffs with a win over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game.

You also have to keep in mind that Ohio State returned so many starters from last year’s team that won it all and most of the players will be getting a fat paycheck next spring in the NFL draft. Having already won a national championship last year, there’s nothing to gain by winning this game. In fact, I could see several Buckeyes players being more concerned about suffering an injury that could hurt their draft stock. This reminds me a lot of a few years back when Alabama was the defending champs and lost late to miss out on the BCS Championship, the Crimson Tide got embarrassed in the Sugar Bowl by Oklahoma as a 15-point favorite. 

On the flip side of this, I fully expect Notre Dame to show up for this game. The Fighting Irish have to feel like they are one of the best teams in the country and will want to prove it against the defending champs. Keep in mind that Notre Dame could have easily finished 12-0. They lost by 2-points at Clemson in a game where they outgained the Tigers by 136 yards and were a 2-point conversion away from sending it to overtime, despite a -3 turnover margin. They outgained Stanford by 111 yards and after taking a 36-35 lead with 30 seconds to play ended up losing on a last second 45-yard field goal. Take Notre Dame!

5* Oklahoma/Clemson Orange Bowl Vegas Insider on Oklahoma - 

Say what you want about the loss to Texas, the Sooners were arguably the most impressive team in the country down the stretch. Since that loss to the Longhorns, Oklahoma has won 7 straight games and outgained all 7 opponents in the process. This team reminds me a lot of Ohio State from last year, who had the ugly loss early to Virginia Tech and then proceeded to catch fire an run the table to a National Championship.

One thing that really stands out to me is how Oklahoma was able to go on the road and win in hostile environments. They had an early 31-24 win at Tennessee, who ended the year ranked No. 23 in the country. They also had blowout wins on the road late at Baylor by 10-points and at Oklahoma State by 35 in the deciding game for the Big 12 title.

While Clemson had impressive wins during the regular season over Notre Dame and Florida State, both of those wins came at home. The Tigers didn’t exactly dominate either of those games. In fact, they were outplayed by Notre Dame, who had a 432 to 296 edge in total yards, but were done in by 4 turnovers. They also were tied with the Seminoles at 13-13 going into the 4th quarter. It’s also worth noting that Clemson had several close calls on the road. They only beat Louisville 20-17, NC State by 15, Syracuse by 10, South Carolina by 5 and North Carolina by 8.

For it comes down the fact that I think Oklahoma is going to have a much easier time moving the football in this matchup. The Sooners finished the season with the 7th ranked offense in the country at 542.9 ypg and were well balanced. Oklahoma ranked 16th in rushing (235.0 ypg) and 18th in passing (307.9 ypg). It’s without question the best offense the Tigers have faced since they faced Notre Dame.

While Clemson has a high-powered offense of their own, they Sooners aren’t going to be the least bit intimidated by the Tigers offense, as they have faced a number of explosive offenses this season in the Big 12. As good as Deshaun Watson has been, I just feel he’s going to have to have the game of his life just for Clemson to keep this one respectable. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on the Sooners. Explosive offensive teams that are averaging 34 or more points/game at least 8 games into the season, who are coming off a win by 35 or more points and going against a strong defensive team that are allowing 16-21 points/game are 39-11 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Oklahoma! 

4* Holiday Bowl ATS Vegas Insider on Wisconsin +

The first thing that I look at with any bowl game is motivation and I think the edge here clearly goes to Wisconsin. I just don’t see USC being all that excited about this game. The Trojans came into this season thinking National Championship and would have likely been headed to a New Year’s six bowl had they beat Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship. Now they are forced to play an unranked Wisconsin team in the Holiday Bowl. Very similar scenario to that of their Pac-12 South counterpart in UCLA, who we just watched lose to Nebraska in the Fosters Farm Bowl.

I also think Wisconsin is one of the more underrated teams in the country. While the Badgers don’t have a signature win in 2015, their 3 losses were to the likes of Alabama, Iowa and Northwestern. They weren’t all that competitive in their opener against the Crimson Tide, but arguably should have won at home against the Hawkeyes (outgained Iowa 320-221 in a 4-point loss). They also lost to Northwestern by just 6-points, despite finishing the game with a -5 turnover margin.

I think it’s going to be a lot easier for Wisconsin to get up for USC than it is for the Trojans to get excited about playing the Badgers. This is a chance for Wisconsin to show the rest of the country that they are legit team and that they have been getting overlooked all season. One thing the Badgers have done extremely well, is shut down the opposing teams offense. Wisconsin finished the year ranked 3rd in the country in total defense (allowing just 276.1 ypg). They were strong against both the run (97.9 ypg, 4th) and the pass (169.2 ypg).

While USC’s high-powered offense could have their hands full against the Badgers’ stop unit, I think Wisconsin is going to surprise some people with the way they move the ball against the Trojans. A big reason for the Badgers struggles offensively this season, has been the absence of star running back Corey Clement, who was suppose to shoulder the load for the loss of Melvin Gordon. Instead, Clement has played in just 3 games. There’s a good chance Clement has a major role in the bowl game against the Trojans and he could very well be the difference in this game. Keep in mind the last time USC took the field, they gave up 262 rushing yards to the Cardinal and it’s no secret how much the Badgers like to pound the rock. With or without Clement I like Wisconsin in this one. 

Wisconsin is 30-16 ATS in their last 46 games when playing with two or more weeks of rest/preparation. The Badgers are also 41-18 ATS in their last 59 games against a quality opponent who has won between 60% to 75% of their games and 32-17 ATS in their last 49 versus strong offensive teams that average 34 or more points/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Badgers. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, who are allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game are 70-32 (69%) ATS since 1992 when they come in off a game where they out rushed their previous opponent by 150 or more yards. Take Wisconsin! 

4* Texas Bowl No Doubt ATS Annihilator on LSU -

Even with this game being played so close to home for Texas Tech, I think LSU has a clear advantage that can't be ignored in this matchup. Keep in mind that last year, Texas played Arkansas in this same bowl and the Razorbacks won 31-7 as a 7-point favorite.

While the Tigers were way overvalued to start the year, I don’t feel like this team is getting near enough respect against an inferior team in the Red Raiders. The biggest thing you have to keep in mind is that this is a top-level SEC team against a middle of the pack Big 12 team.

I personally think the Big 12 is overrated as a whole and that makes it easy for me to go against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders played TCU tough at home, but were beat badly by the other 3 top teams in the Big 12. They lost 35-63 to Baylor, 27-63 at Oklahoma and 53-70 to Oklahoma State. They also lost 26-31 to West Virginia. Not to mention they only beat Kansas 30-20 and the Jayhawks finished 0-12.

The biggest factor here is the Red Raiders are going to have no answer defensively for LSU’s Leonard Fournette. Texas Tech was one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They were 115th against the run (271.8 ypg) and 110th against the pass (268.3 ypg). If given enough carries, Fournette could put up historic numbers for a bowl game. That’s how big of a mismatch this is when the Tigers have the ball. Keep in mind, all 3 of LSU’s losses came against teams who were strong defensively at stopping the run, which allowed them to take away Fournette. That’s not going to be the case here and that opens up a strong possibility that the Tigers win this game going away.

Texas Tech does have a capable offense, but I don’t see them being able to have enough success here to keep this game close. LSU finished a respectable 25th in the country in total defense, giving up just 342.5 ypg. You also have to take into consideration that LSU will have had weeks to prepare for the Red Raiders offense, which should increase their chances of keeping Texas Tech’s offense in check. On the flip side of this, you could give Texas Tech 2 months to prepare for the Tigers and they still aren’t going to have the talent defensively to stop Fournette. Take LSU! 

4* Pitt/Navy Military Bowl ATS Heavy Hitter on Pittsburgh +

While Navy has won and covered each of their last two bowl games, they weren’t exactly against the best competition. Last year they edged out San Diego State 17-16 as a 3-point dog and the year before that they won 24-6 against Middle Tennessee as a 6-point favorite. I’m not a big fan of backing triple-option teams in bowl games, so my early lean is going to be on Pittsburgh plus the points.

It’s extremely difficult for teams to prepare for opponents who run the triple-option on a regular 6 days of rest between games, as they just don’t spend enough time in practice preparing for these kind of offenses. I believe the unfamiliarity of how to stop the triple-option, played a big part in Navy’s success in their first year inside the American Athletic. I also think it has a lot to do with why they struggled to put away a 2-9 Army team in their last game, as the Black Knights run a very similar offense and know how to stop it.

Not only is Pittsburgh going to have over 3 weeks to prepare for Navy’s triple-option attack, but they are familiar with the principles of how to defend the triple-option playing in the same division as Georgia Tech. The Panthers went on the road and beat Georgia Tech 31-28 as a 3-point underdog and that was with having just 6 days to prepare for the Yellow Jackets.

As I’m sure most of you are aware, this will be a home game for Navy, but I actually think that works in our favor. Instead of Pittsburgh being favored or a pick’em, we get the opportunity to back the Panthers as a dog in a game they have a really good chance of winning outright.

Keep in mind the strength of the Panthers defense this season was stopping the run. They finished the year ranked 21st against the run, allowing just 126.1 ypg. You also have to remember that Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi is a defensive-minded guy and you can bet he will have his players ready for the triple-option.

Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 that failed to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are just 26-69 (35%) ATS after the first month of the season over the last 5 years. Take Pittsburgh! 

4* Foster Farms Bowl ATS Heavy Hitter on Nebraska +

Most will simply look at the records of these two teams and quickly jump on the Bruins, but I think the value is with Nebraska, who I believe will be the more motivated of the two teams in this matchup.

The thing you have to keep in mind with UCLA is this was a team that came into this season with the expectation of winning the Pac-12 and making the 4-team playoff. Not only did they fail to do that, but they weren’t good enough to even make a New Year’s bowl. It was going to hard enough for this team to get up for whoever their opponent was in the Foster Farms Bowl and that becomes an even bigger challenge matched up against a Nebraska team that went 5-7.

On the flip side of this, getting a chance to play a bowl game when most years you would be left home watching everyone else play, is an opportunity I believe the Cornhuskers are going to relish. Nebraska is going to have a lot of motivation here to prove the doubters wrong, as there’s plenty of talk about how these 5-7 teams aren’t deserving of playing in a bowl. I look for Cornhuskers to come out and make a statement against a well respected opponent in UCLA, who they just so happened to play a home-and-home series against in 2012 and 2013. Nebraska lost both of those meetings, including an ugly 20-point loss at home, so revenge will also be on their mind.

The other big thing here is Nebraska is a much better team than their 5-7 record would lead you to believe. The Cornhuskers were arguably the most unlucky team in all of college football this season. Nebraska had 3 losses where their opponent scored the game-winning points with 10 or fewer seconds left to play in regulation, as well as an overtime loss to Miami and 2-point defeat to Northwestern. This team was closer to a 10-win team than most people outside of Lincoln realize and I look for them to come out looking to show everyone that their 5-7 record was a fluke. Keep in mind they upset Big Ten Champion Michigan State at home and gave undefeated Iowa all they could handle in a 20-28 loss at home.

I’m not going to go into the statistics of these two teams, as most will favor UCLA. I believe this is one game where focusing too much on the numbers will get you in trouble. I'll gladly take the points as insurance, but I think there's a strong chance the Cornhuskers win this game outright. Take Nebraska! 

5* Pre-New Years Bowl Game of the Year on Washington -

Southern Miss was one of the best kept secrets in the regular season, as they finished the year a healthy 10-3 ATS. However, I think that is going to have some people jumping on the Golden Eagles bandwagon at the wrong time. The thing you have to keep in mind with Southern Miss, is they were way undervalued coming into the season after only going 2-23 SU and 7-16-1 ATS over the previous 2 seasons.

The Golden Eagles made big strides, but most of their success came against bad teams, as C-USA was weak as a whole. Only 5 of the 13 teams in the conference finished with a winning record and Southern Miss lost badly two of those winning teams in Marshall (10-31) and Western Kentucky (28-45). I believe a lot of people are going to see their 10-3 ATS record and be quick to jump on the points, but I think the Golden Eagles are way outclassed in this game against Washington.

Southern Miss put up big time offensive numbers, as they ranked 10th overall in the country at 520 ypg behind a well-balanced attack. The Golden Eagles were 38th in rushing (191.9 ypg) and 12th in passing (327.9 ypg). However, those numbers were greatly aided by their weak schedule inside C-USA. Washington isn’t going to be intimated by Southern Miss’ high-powered attack, as the Huskies faced offenses like this all season in the Pac-12. Washington is hands down the best defense the Golden Eagles will have faced this season and I look for Southern Miss to have trouble scoring enough to keep this game close. Keep in mind Southern Miss only managed 16 points at home against Mississippi State in non-conference play.

On the flip side of this, Washington’s offense should have no problem moving the ball and scoring at well against a suspect Golden Eagles defense. While the Cougars are no offensive juggernaut, they should be able to over-power Southern Miss’ defense, which wasn’t as good as their overall numbers would suggest. While the Golden Eagles only gave up 24.2 ppg, their 13 opponents only averaged 26.1 ppg.

All of this and we haven’t talked about the advantage the Huskies have with head coach Chris Petersen, who is 20-3 in coaching career when coming off a bye, where he’s had more than your standard 6 days to prepare for an opponent. On top of that, Washington is a very young and talented team, who will want to use this game to serve as a building block for next year. I also like the momentum the Huskies have going into their bowl preparation with winning their last two regular season games to become bowl eligible. Take Washington in a blowout! 

4* Cinc/San Diego St Hawaii Bowl Total Annihilator on OVER

San Diego State allowed 24 or fewer points over their 9-game conference winning streak to close out the year, but they didn't have to face Boise State and  if you watched the Mountain West you know there's a lot of bad offensive teams. The thing that stands out to me is how the Aztecs defense performed in non-conference play, allowing 35 points to Cal, 34 to South Alabama and 37 to Penn State. I think San Diego State's defensive run has created some huge value here with the OVER. 

Cincinnati comes in with the 26th ranked scoring offense (36.1 ppg) and are 4th in the country in passing at 373.1 ypg. This will be the best passing attack the Aztecs have seen since non-conference and keep in mind that the opposing quarterbacks San Diego State has played this year only averaged a 55.8% completion rate and 200 ypg. Cincinnati's quarterbacks completed 62.4% of their attempts with a strong 8.7 yards per pass attempt. I know the Bearcats will be without starting quarterback Gunner Keil, but backup Hayden Moore has played in several games and shown he's more than capable of putting up big numbers, including a 557 yard and 4 touchdown performance against Memphis. 

On the flip side of this, Cincinnati doesn't have a great defense. The Bearcats ranked 81st in total defense, allowing 414.6 ypg. They were especially bad against the run, which they finished 83rd against, giving up 190.3 ypg and 5.0 yards/carry. That's good news for the Aztecs, who come in with the 14th ranked rushing attack at 235.3 ypg. 

I look for teams to provide plenty of fireworks offensively and most importantly some quick scores with the Bearcats striking through the air and the Aztecs on the ground. Also don't be surprised if Cincinnati doesn't have a few big turnovers that result in easy scores for San Diego State. OVER is 4-1 in the Bearcats last 5 bowl games, 7-1 in their last 8 games in December and 11-4 in their last 15 against a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! 

4* GoDaddy Bowl Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

We know Bowling Green is going to put up points, as they average 43.4 ppg and have scored no fewer than 28 points in a game all season The biggest key here is whether or not Georgia Southern can run the football against the Falcons, as the Eagles offer little to no threat of a passing attack. I believe they will be able to have success on the ground and the line here backs that up. If the oddsmakers didn't think Georgia Southern was going to be able to run the ball, this line would be a lot more, as the Eagles simply wouldn't be able to score enough to keep it close. 

Bowling Green gave up 4.0 yards/carry and 162 ypg on the ground this season and they didn't exactly face the best rushing attacks in the MAC. What I like, is we have seen the Falcons give up big numbers on the ground. They allowed 399 rushing yards to Tennessee, 299 yards to Ohio, 205 to Western Michigan and 198 to Toledo. None of those teams have as strong as a rushing attack as the Eagles, who finished the year with the nation's top ranked rushing attack at 355.6 ypg. 

Keep in mind Georgia Southern put up 233 rushing yards on the road against Georgia and 413 against Western Michigan out of the MAC. When the Eagles have rushed for 250 or more yards this season, they have scored a minimum of 37 points. 

Another bonus factor here is both of these teams saw their head coach leave to take on a bigger and better job in the time leading up to this game. That only hurts the preparation and given the talent these two have on offense, I believe it will hurt the most on the play defensively. 

OVER is 30-10 (75%) since 1992 in non-conference games with a total of 63.5 to 70 where you have a team (Georgia Southern) that has been beat by the spread by 21 or more combined points in their last 3 games. Take the OVER! 

4* Toledo/Temple Boca Raton Bowl ATS No Brainer on Temple -

I really like the value here with Temple laying less than a field goal against the Rockets. Toledo is coming off an impressive 9-2 season, but I'm not as big a believer in this team as others. I know they had a 16-12 win at Arkansas, but that was a fluke win as they were outgained by nearly 200 yards (318-515). They also got a lucky win at home against a bad Iowa State team in overtime, thanks to the Cyclones missing a potential game-winning field goal at the end of regulation. 

Speaking of Iowa State, Toledo head coach Matt Campbell left the program to become the new head coach of the Cyclones. Anytime a team loses a talented coach like Campbell going into their bowl game, it tends to have a negative effect on their performance. 

Even with Campbell on the sidelines, I would still be all over Temple in this one. The Owls were one of the biggest surprises of the 2015 season and have one of the best kept secrets at head coach in matt Rhule, who is going to have his team ready to go for this matchup. 

Toledo is a team that relies heavily on their ability to run the football offensively, which plays right into the stretch of the Temple defense. The Owls finished 19th in the country against the run, allowing just 125.8 ypg. They also gave up just 3.8 yards/carry and were strong against the pass. Opposing quarterbacks only completed 56.8% of their attempts against them. 

Defensively the Rockets aren't as good as advertised and come into this game having allowed 28+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. Temple's offense isn't great, but if Iowa State can put up over 400 yards of offense on this team, so can the Owls. Take Temple in what could end up being a blowout! 

4* WKU/USF Miami Beach Bowl ATS Annihilator on USF +

The betting public is all over Western Kentucky, as they have the much more impressive record at 11-2 compared to South Florida at 8-4. The Hilltoppers are also getting some love for winning the C-USA Championship Game. The key thing to keep in mind here is that C-USA is not a strong conference and this Hilltoppers team barely beat Vanderbilt (14-12) and lost at Indiana (35-38) and LSU (20-48) in non-conference play. 

South Florida got off to a slow start to the season, but closed out with 7 wins in their last 8 games, which included impressive wins over Temple (44-23) and Cincinnati (65-27). The Bulls aren't going to be intimidated by the high-powered offense the Hilltoppers come in with, as they have faced better versions of Western Kentucky's offense in the AAC with Memphis and Cincinnati. 

What a lot of people are overlooking is how well South Florida's offense has been playing of late. The Bulls averaged 51.0 ppg over their last 3 and 33.5 ppg on the season. Their strength is a running game that finished 11th in the country at 242.9 ypg, while averaging 5.3 yards/carry. The ability to run the ball will allow South Florida to slow this game down and keep Western Kentucky from getting in a rhythm offensively and most importantly limit their possessions. 

I also think the Bulls have the talent defensively to slow the Hilltoppers down. It's no secret Western Kentucky likes to throw the football, as they come in averaging 365 ypg through the air. South Florida only gave up 221 passing yards/game and opposing quarterbacks only completed 54.5% of their attempts against them. 

The Bulls are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 against strong passing teams, who are completing 62% or more of their attempts, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Western Kentucky on the other hand is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Take South Florida! 

5* New Orleans Bowl Vegas Insider Top Play on OVER 

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fire works in Saturday's New Orleans Bowl between Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech. Both of these teams lit up the scoreboard in 2015, as the Redwolves averaged 41.0 ppg on 448 ypg and the Bulldogs put up 36.7 ppg on 465 ypg. At the same time, both of these defenses struggled, especially away from home. Arkansas State allowed 33.2 ppg on the road and Louisiana Tech allowed 31.3 ppg. 

The big key here is making sure that a team like Arkansas State, from a weaker conference, can have success against the likes of Louisiana Tech. I believe they can and will. The Redwolves have been an offensive juggernaut down the stretch. They scored 50+ in each of their last 3 games and put up 40 on an Appalachian State defense that finished the year ranked 12th in the country in total defense.

While running the football is their strength, Arkansas State has a more than capable quarterback in senior Fredi Knighten, who threw for 17 touchdowns in his last 7 games. Knighten should be able to exploit a Louisiana Tech defense that finished 107th against the pass (265.8 ypg) and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.2% of their attempts. 

Louisiana Tech should also have a field day offensively. The Bulldogs posted the 15th ranked passing attack in the country at 311.9 ypg and will be going up against a Arkansas State defense that finished 91st against the pass. While the Redwolves have the talent offensively to take on the Bulldogs, they don't have the talent defensively.

OVER is 6-0 in Arkansas State's last 6 after scoring 31 or more points in 4 straight games, 7-0 in their last 7 after playing 3 straight games where 60 or more combined points were scored and 6-0 in their last 6 off 3 or more straight up wins. OVER is also 6-0 in the Redwolves last 6 against teams who allowing opponents to complete 58% or more of their pass attempts and 10-0 in their last 10 against opponents who complete 58% or more of their pass attempts. Add it up and we have a perfect 35-0 system in play on this one to eclipse the mark. Take the OVER! 

4* Camellia Bowl ATS Annihilator on Ohio +

I just feel we are seeing too much value here on Ohio to not play the Bobcats catching over a touchdown. Appalachian State is certainly getting a lot of respect for going 10-2, but the Mountaineers weren't even the best team in the Sun Belt, which is easily the worst FBS conference.

In fact, the Sun Belt had just 3 teams who finished with a winning record and Appalachian State lost at home to Arkansas State 27-40. The Mountaineers went 3-1 in non-conference play, but one of their opponents was FCS foe Howard, who finished 1-10 and you might recall lost 76-0 to Boston College. The other two non-conference wins came against Old Dominion, who went 5-7 and Wyoming, who finished 2-10. 

So while the numbers look great for Appalachian State, that's because they played a bunch of bad football teams. Ohio's schedule isn't anything to write home about, but the Bobcats did got a respectable 5-3 in the MAC and had a 21-10 win over Marshall and near upset at Minnesota (24-27) in non-conference play.

Ohio had an ugly 3-game stretch where they lost badly to Western Michigan (14-49), Buffalo (17-41) and Bowling Green (24-62), but injuries played a big part of that. The Bobcats got healthy down the stretch and finished the season with 3 straight wins, including a 26-21 win at Northern Illinois as an 11.5-point underdog (Huskies were playing for spot in MAC title game) in their finale. 

While Appalachian State will be playing in their first ever bowl game, that's not exactly a positive, as there is something to knowing how to handle the preparation for these bowl games. At the same time, after missing out on a bowl game last year and losing the previous year by 17 to North Carolina, Ohio will be motivated for this matchup. Keep in mind, in 2012 the Bobcats played Sun Belt foe ULM in the Independence Bowl and were a similar 7-point dog. Ohio won that contest 45-14. 

Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win. Take Ohio! 

4* Army/Navy ATS No Brainer on Army + 

As difficult as it may be to back Army even getting this many points, I really like the Black Knights to cover. Motivation is a big reason why I think you have to take the points in this matchup. I know it’s unlikely that Army pulls off the upset, but the Black Knights are sick and tired of losing in this series (lost 13 straight) and you can bet they are going to lay every thing they have into this game (3 of last 4 decided by a touchdown or less). 

Navy on the other hand could find it hard to get up for this matchup. Last time out the Midshipmen took the field in the biggest game of the season and took one on the chin against Houston. Navy went from potentially playing in the AAChampionship Game to having to turn their attention to an Army team they haven't lost to since 2001 and can’t exactly feel threatened with the Black Knights having won just 2 games all season. At the same time, Navy could also have their eyes looking ahead to their showdown against Pittsburgh in the Military Bowl on Dec. 28th.

One of the things to keep in mind with Army and their 2-9 record, is the fact that this team has been competitive in a lot of games. In fact, the Black Knights lost 6 of their 9 games by a touchdown or less. They were also competitive in a 3-20 defeat at Air Force and 21-31 loss at home to Rutgers. You could make a decent argument that this is a better Army team than the one that came into this matchup last year at 4-7, as Army had 4 losses by 20 or more points in 2014.

Another factor here that can’t be overlooked is that while Navy has been the better team of late, they have not dominated in this series as much as their 13-game winning streak would lead on, especially of late. Only once in the last 6 meetings has Navy won by 23 or more points and that was a 27-point win in 2013. Adding to this is the fact that Army hasn’t won more than 4 regular season games in each of the last 4 years, so it’s not like the Black Knights have been any good during this stretch of close games.

A big reason why Army is able to be competitive with Navy, despite not being as talented as the Midshipmen, is the fact that both of these teams run a very similar offense with the triple-option attack. Keep in mind a big part of Navy’s success during the regular season is the fact that they were in a new conference going up against teams that weren’t familiar with the triple-option and how to defend it.

Another factor favoring the Black Knights, especially with this massive spread, is that both teams will be running on almost every play, which is going to eat up a lot of clock and limit the possessions, making the points that much more valuable. Take Army! 

3* Big Ten Championship Game ATS Winner on Iowa +

Despite the fact that the Hawkeyes have continued to play extremely well and have not lost this season, no one wants to give this team any respect for what they have accomplished this season and the perception is that Iowa will get exposed now that they are going up against a legit opponent.

Say what you want about the Hawkeyes schedule, but I think this team is going to continue it’s impressive run with a win on Saturday. While these two teams didn’t play each other, they did play 4 common opponents during the regular season. The numbers are strikingly similar. Iowa went 4-0, outscoring the opposition 33.5 to 20.5, while Michigan State was 3-1 with an average score in those games of 34.5 to 23.3.

While the Spartans clearly played one of their best games of the season last week against Penn State, I was really impressed with how Iowa was able to go on the road in a hostile environment and beat Nebraska without playing that well. The Hawkeyes only managed 250 total yards (outgained by 183 yards), had just 10 first downs, were 0 for 9 on 3rd downs and starting quarterback C.J. Beathard went just 9 of 16 for 97 yards. Keep in mind that the Cornhuskers are a much better team than their record and that’s a much bigger rivalry than the a lot of people realize.

It just goes to show you how well coached this Iowa team is and how they can beat you by doing all the little things right. I look for the Hawkeyes offense to have a much better showing in this game and big reason for that, is I think their offensive line is going to be able to stand up to the strong defensive front of Michigan State and move the ball on the ground. I also think we are going to see a much better showing from Beathard in this game and he should be able to take advantage of an inexperienced Michigan State secondary.

I know the defense hasn’t played great of late, but the thing that Iowa does extremely well on that side of the ball is they force teams to drive the length of the field and are able to create turnovers. The Hawkeyes are allowing just 3.4 yards/carry and giving up only 6.1 yards/pass attempt. Overall they allow just 4.8 yards/play.

Another factor here, is I think this is going to be a low scoring game, so points are going to be a premium. There’s a good chance this game isn’t decided until late and the winner winning by a field goal or less. Keep in mind the underdog has covered 5 of the last 7 in the series.

The Hawkeyes are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games away from home, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams who average 31+ points/game and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams who allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 58% of more of their pass attempts. It’s also worth noting that Iowa is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against Michigan State. Take Iowa!

4* UNC/Clemson ACC Championship Game Vegas Insider on UNC +

I know Clemson is the No. 1 ranked team in the country and haven’t lost a game all season, but I really think there’s something special going on with the North Carolina team. Ever since the Tar Heels lost their opener against South Carolina, which just so happened to come on the same field as this game, they have been on an absolute tear. I believe they are going to have what it takes to win this game outright and worse case should be able to keep it close enough to cover.

Offensively, North Carolina has the fire-power to match Clemson score for score. The Tar Heels averaged 41.2 ppg on the season behind a well balanced attack. North Carolina average 230 yards/game and 6.0 yards/carry on the ground, while also throwing for 266 yards/game with an impressive 9.5 yards/pass attempt.

Clemson’s defense is perceived to be the better of the two and that may be the case, but we have seen this Tigers defense struggle of late. They gave up over 400 yards of offense to South Carolina last week and I think they are going to have some problems containing North Carolina quarterback Marquise Williams, who much like Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, can beat you with both his arm and his legs.

I know the Tar Heels didn’t have the best showing defensively last week against NC State, but lets not forget the Wolfpack also put up some big numbers on Clemson earlier this season. One thing I like here is that North Carolina has been exceptional against the pass, allowing just 186.7 ypg (19th). I think they can make Watson one dimensional and keep in mind that they know a thing or two about stopping mobile quarterbacks given they have to go up against one in practice every day.

I just think this is too many points in what I feel is a very evenly matched game, especially with the way North Carolina can move the ball offensively. If the Tar Heels can win the turnover battle, which isn’t out of the question given Clemson has coughed it up 10 times in their last 3 games, I think they have a great shot at winning this game outright.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Tar Heels. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are coming off a conference win by 10 or more points against an opponent off a game where both teams scored 31 or more points have gone 44-17 (72%) ATS since 1992. Take North Carolina! 

5* Conference Championship Game of the Year on USC +

While the Cardinal went into USC’s house and beat them by double-digits earlier this season, I like the value we are getting with the Trojans in the rematch. Revenge is a big time motivator in college football and this comes with a little extra incentive for USC. Not only can the Trojans payback Stanford for that earlier loss, but they can crush any hopes the Cardinal have of getting into the playoffs.

Something else to keep in mind in regards to Stanford still being in the playoff picture, is that USC has nothing to lose in this game. The Trojans already have 3 losses and even with a conference championship, they wouldn’t be included in the 4-team playoff due to having 3 losses. I look for USC to be the much more relaxed team in this game and that’s a bigger advantage than you might think.

Another key factor here is that the Trojans have a different head coach at helm than the first meeting. Who knows how much of a serious effort former head coach Steve Sarkisian put into that first matchup. A team takes on the mentality of their coach and Sarkisian clearly wasn’t in the right state of mind to lead this team. USC has taken to Clay Helton, who was just officially named the head coach going forward and I think he gives the Trojans a better chance at getting their revenge.

Something to keep in mind about that first meeting, is that while Stanford won by 10-points, that came was very evenly matched. Had it not been for a 17-yard touchdown that the Trojans allowed with 3 seconds to go in the first half, which gave the Cardinal all the momentum, we might have seen a different result. Stanford’s earlier win marked only the third time in the last 9 meetings where they game wasn’t decided on the final play in this series. At the same time, the Cardinal win improved the underdog in the series to 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take USC!

3* AAC Conference Championship ATS Winner on Temple +

While both of these teams closed out the regular season in fashion in must-win games, the Cougars was perceived to be the more impressive of the two, as Navy came into that game with a perfect 7-0 record in the AAC and were actually favored to win. That combined with this being a home game for Houston, has forced the oddsmakers to inflate this line in favor of the Cougars, knowing that’s who the public will be drawn to.

Temple had an ugly loss 23-44 loss at South Florida a few weeks back, but that loss isn’t as bad as some people might think. The Bulls closed out the regular season on a 7-1 run and their only two conference losses came by 7-points to Memphis and 12 to Navy. However, the Owls bounced back in fashion with a 31-12 blowout win over Memphis the following week. I know it wasn’t a great spot for the Tigers, but to hold Memphis to 12 points says a lot about the Temple defense.

More times than not, defense wins these big games and I think it’s safe to say the Owls feature the stronger stop unit. Temple allowed just 4.6 yards/play inside the AAC, where Houston allowed 5.8. The Owls also gave up just 5.9 yards/ pass attempt, so they aren’t going to be intimated by this Houston high-powered offense. Most importantly, Temple proved their defense was legit when they held Notre Dame to 24 points and just 295 yards of total offense. I know the Cougars have put up some big time numbers, but they haven’t exactly played many good defenses. Their 12 opponents combined to give up an average of 32.7 ppg.

Backing the Owls in the role of the underdog has been a wise investment over the last 3 seasons, as Temple is 16-6 ATS during this stretch when catching points. The Owls are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against teams who average 31+ points/game, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against teams who average 425 or more yards/game and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against teams who are outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Take Temple!

4* Conf-USA Championship Game ATS No Brainer on Southern Miss +

While Western Kentucky certainly has an advantage playing at home, I think we are seeing the Hilltoppers overvalued in this one. Southern Miss has been every bit as impressive as Western Kentucky down the stretch. The Golden Eagles closed out the regular season with 5 straight wins and all 5 of those victories came by at least 21 points.

I know Southern Miss’ only conference loss came against Marshall by 21 points, who Western Kentucky just dominated last week, but you can’t look too much into previous matchups. The Golden Eagles are playing their best football of the season right now and if you compare the common opponents, the numbers are very similar.

Both teams played the same 5 teams. While Western Kentucky had the better record at 5-0 compared to 4-1, you could argue Southern Miss was the more impressive in those games. The Golden Eagles average 47.6 ppg on 572.2 ypg, while Western Kentucky averaged 49.8 ppg on 569.2 ypg. Almost the exact same. However, there’s a big difference defensively. The Golden Eagles allowed just 22.0 ppg and 324.0 ypg, while the Hilltoppers gave up 26.8 ppg and 389.6 ypg.

With the way Southern Miss is clicking offensively right now, it’s going to be extremely hard for Western Kentucky to build up a big enough lead to win here by more than a touchdown. I see a clear advantage for the Golden Eagles offense against the Hilltoppers. Southern Miss has the 10th ranked passing attack in the country at 340.2 ypg. Western Kentucky has the 82nd ranked pass defense, allowing 238.9 ypg.

As good as Hilltoppers quarterback Brandon Doughty has been, he’s going to have to play exceptional for Western Kentucky to turn this into a blowout. I’m not saying he plays bad, but I think there’s a better chance of Southern Miss winning this game outright than the Hilltoppers winning by double-digits.

Southern Miss is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by 20 or more points. Western Kentucky is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 after accumulating more than 280 passing yards in their previous game. Take Southern Miss! 

4* N Illinois/BG MAC Championship ATS No Brainer on Bowling Green -

We have already seen this line jump quite a bit since it first came out, as the Falcons opened in most places as a 7.5 to 8-point favorite. A big reason for that is Northern Illinois will be starting 3rd-string quarterback and true freshman, Tommy Fiedler against Bowling Green. Even getting double-digits, I can’t trust the inexperience of Fiedler in a game where the Huskies will have to put up a bunch of points just to keep the game competitive. Keep in mind the betting public has been all over Northern Illinois, yet the line continues to grow. 

Filling in for the injured Ryan Graham against Ohio, Fiedler went just 9 of 17 for 117 yards against Ohio. Given the pressure of this game, I have a hard time seeing Fielder delivering the type of performance needed. While Bowling Green’s defense ranks 64th against the run (166.9 ypg) and 96th against the pass (255.2 ypg) nationally, they have been much better than that inside conference play.

Against fellow MAC opponents, the Falcons are allowing just 3.9 yards/carry and opposing quarterbacks are completing just 57.5% of their attempts against them. In comparison, Northern Illinois is giving up 3.9 yards/carry and a 55.3% completion rate inside conference play. So those that think the Huskies have a big advantage defensively, may want to reconsider that thought.

The big difference in this game is the Falcons are the much better offensive team and a big reason for that is senior quarterback Matt Johnson, who has completed 68.9% of his attempts for 4,465 yards with 41 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions. Keep in mind that Johnson wasn’t in the lineup in last year’s title game (suffered season-ending injury in first game of the year). While Northern Illinois is holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 55.3% completion rate in the MAC, they have struggled against some of the better passing teams. They allowed 393 passing yards to Ball State, 354 to Buffalo and 353 to Western Michigan.

Revenge is huge motivator for Bowling Green in this game and I also think you have to make note that this is not your same caliber a Northern Illinois team from year’s past. The Huskies were extremely fortunate to overcome 4th quarter deficits against both Toledo and Western Michigan. You also rarely see this team lose a must-win game like they did in their finale against Ohio, especially playing at home.

Northern Illinois is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played in the month of December, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral site. Bowling Green is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games. The Falcons are also 8-0 ATS in their last 8 off a blowout win over a conference opponent by 21 or more points and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 away games in the 2nd half of the season. Take Bowling Green! 

4* Texas A&M/LSU SEC Game of the Week on LSU -

The Tigers have went from playoff contender to a team that no one is talking about, outside of the potential firing of head coach Les Miles. As disappointing a finish as it's been for LSU, I think we are going to see an inspired effort in their home finale, especially given that this could be the last home game under Miles. The good thing is we are seeing the Tigers way undervalued here due to their poor performances in their last 3 games. 

The key thing to keep in mind here, is Texas A&M hasn't exactly been playing great football of late either. While the Aggies defeated Vanderbilt 25-0 last week, they are just 3-3 in their last 6 games and the other two wins were against South Carolina and Western Carolina, where they didn't come close to covering the spread. 

A huge factor to why I like LSU, is the matchup for the Tigers offense. As we have found out the last 3 games, LSU needs to be able to run the football to have success. Their last 3 games have been against arguably the 3 best run defenses in the SEC in Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss. Now the Tigers face a Texas A&M defense that ranks 102nd in the country against the run, giving up 202.5 ypg and 4.8 ypg. Look for the LSU offense to get back on track and the defense to play inspired in the home finale. 

Texas A&M is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games as an underdog of 7 or less and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after playing their previous game on the road. Aggies are also just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 against a team with a winning record and 8-19 ATS in their last 27 against strong running teams that average 5.25 or more yards/carry. Take LSU! 

3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Rout on Wisconsin -

This is a great spot to jump on Wisconsin, who I look to be extremely motivated coming off that heartbreaking 7-13 loss at home to Northwestern. The key here is we are getting great value on the Badgers, due to the fact that Minnesota needs to win this game to become bowl eligible. The fact of the matter is, the Golden Gophers aren't a good football team and this is not a good matchup for them. 

Minnesota's offense is average at best and will have a very difficult time moving the ball against a stingy Wisconsin defense. The Badgers are 4th in the country in total defense, ranking 6th against the run (102.0 ypg) and 5th against the pass (164.3 ypg). Wisconsin also seems to have the Gophers offense figured out. In the last 4 meetings they are holding Minnesota to just 14.25 ppg. Not to mention the Badgers have won 11 straight in the series and hold an 18-2 advantage overall. 

There's no question this is not your typical high-powered Wisconsin rushing attack from previous years, but they should be able to get the ground game going against the Gophers. Minnesota has allowed 150+ rushing yards in each of their last 3 and last year yielded 233 yards on 46 attempts. 

The Badgers are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, winning in this spot by an averaging of 13.1 ppg. They are also 21-8 ATS in their last 29 after rushing for less than 100 yards in their previous game, while Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a SU win. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home teams with a line of +3 to 1, who have lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 against an opponent that has won 4 or 5 of their last 6 are just 14-41 ATS since 1992. That's a 75% system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin! 

5* NCAAF Game of the Month on Northwestern -

I think we are seeing some great value here on Northwestern, due to the fact that the perception will be that Illinois will be the more motivated team given they need to win this game to become bowl eligible. I don't think that will be the case at all. 

Northwestern has had this game circled on the calendar since the schedule was released, as they lost 33-47 to Illinois last year in a game where they needed to win to become bowl eligible. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald took that loss to heart and has vowed to have his team better prepared for their showdown with the Illini this time around. Wildcats also have some motivation here to reach the 10-win plateau, which doesn't come around often for this program. 

Ever since getting embarrassed in back-to-back games against Michigan and Iowa, Northwestern has been on an absolute tear, winning 4 straight games, including impressive road wins over both Nebraska and Wisconsin. Illinois' only win in their last 5 games is against Purdue at home, who they caught in a perfect spot off their upset over Nebraska. 

Northwestern is simply the more talented team in this one and this is a great matchup for the Wildcats offense. Illinois is giving up 5.4 yards/carry against the run away from home and running the football is the one thing Northwestern does well. The Wildcats come in averaging 192.0 ypg and 4.2 yards/carry behind sophomore running back Justin Jackson (1,172 yards). 

On the flip side of the ball, it's no secret Northwestern has a great defense and they are facing an Illinois offense that has struggled to score on just about every Big Ten defense they have faced. The Illini managed just 3 points against Ohio State, were shutout by Penn State, only scored 13 against Wisconsin, 20 against Iowa and 14 against Nebraska. 

The Wildcats are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 road games after playing their previous game on the road and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams who struggle to throw the ball, averaging 5.75 or less yards per pass attempt. Take Northwestern! 

3* Tulsa/Tulane NCAAF Late Night ATS Bailout on Tulsa -

This is every bit a play against Tulane as it is a play on Tulsa. The Green Wave have absolutely nothing left to play for, as they come into their final game sitting at 3-8. They clearly didn't show up last week in a 21-49 loss at SMU and I just don't see them matching the intensity of the Golden Hurricane in this one. 

Tulsa needs to win this game to finish 6-6 and become bowl eligible, which is very important to this team after going a combined 5-19 the previous 2 seasons. It's also huge for the program going forward, as getting to a bowl would be big for recruiting for 1st year head coach Philip Montgomery. 

The thing to keep in mind with Tulsa's 5-6 record is that all 6 losses have come against quality opponents in Oklahoma, Houston, East Carolina, Memphis, Cincinnati and Navy. 

Both of these teams have played 5 common opponents in the AAC and the numbers really tell just how much better Tulsa is than Tulane. Against those 5 teams the Golden Hurricane were only outscored by 7.4 ppg, while the Green Wave were outscored by 18.8 ppg. Tulsa average 34.4 ppg and 438 ypg in those 5, while Tulane only managed 20.0 ppg and 328.2 ypg. 

The big key here is that when Tulane has been outclassed by the opposition, it's led to a big loss. In fact, 7 of their 8 losses have come by at least 17 points. The only exception being a 3-7 loss at home to a Connecticut team that is awful offensively. When faced against a good offense like Tulsa, the Tulane defense has had no answer. 

It's also worth noting that the Golden Hurricane have won 9 of the last 10 meetings in the series and all 9 of those wins have come by at least a touchdown. 

Tulane is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half and are 4-25 ATS in their last 29 against explosive offenses that average 450 or more yards/game. The Golden Hurricane are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games with a total set at 63 or more points. Take Tulsa! 

4* Navy/Houston Black Friday ATS Annihilator on Navy -

The Midshipmen have quietly been going about their business this season. All the talk early was about Memphis and Houston being the two best teams in the AAC West division, but Navy has arguably been the best team in the entire conference. The Midshipmen are 7-0 in the AAC and can clinch a spot in the AAC Championship Game with a win on Friday. 

There's a couple of key factors here that really benefit Navy. The biggest being the injury situation for Houston. Starting quarterback Greg Ward Jr. and starting running back Kenneth Farrow are questionable to play. I wouldn't be surprised if both ended up playing, but I don't think either will be effective. Without Ward and Farrow at full strength, the Cougars offense was held to 17 points last week by Connecticut.

Those that have watched Houston know how important Ward is to this team and for him to be at his best he needs to be able to use his legs. He's rushed for 810 yards and 16 touchdowns. Farrow has 949 yards and 12 touchdowns, just to give you an idea of how big these two guys are for the Cougars offense. Keep in mind that backup quarterback Kyle Postma is also banged up and questionable to play, which could have Houston relying on their 3rd string quarterback. 

The other factor here, which is a big reason why Navy has had so much success in their first season in the AAC, is the difficulty of preparing for an option-based offense when you don't have  much experience against it. As good as Houston's defense has played, it's a whole different ball game when going up against the option and Navy has one of the best quarterbacks to ever run the option in Keenan Reynolds.

If the Cougars offense struggles to get going, there's a good chance the Midshipmen's relentless rushing attack will break the spirit of the Houston defense and turn this game into a blowout.

The Midshipmen are 8-1 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons and 13-4 ATS overall in the 2nd half of the season. Houston is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 straight games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games in Weeks 10 through 13. Take Navy! 

5* Marshall/WKU C-USA Game of the Month on Marshall +

I love the value we are getting with Marshall as a double-digit underdog in a game they have had circled on the calendar for almost a year now. Last year the Thundering Herd were 11-0 going into their home finale against Western Kentucky and were listed as a 23.5-point favorite. The Hilltoppers pulled off the improbable upset in a 67-66 shootout. It not only cost Marshall an undefeated record, but a spot in a New Year's six bowl. 

Revenge is a tremendous motivator in college football and I think there's a decent chance here that the Thundering Herd return the favor. Either way, I'm expecting a close game that comes down the wire, which should have Marshall easily covering this double-digit spread. 

There's no denying Western Kentucky has a prolific offense behind talented senior quarterback Brandon Doughty, but we have seen this offense be kept in check, as they scored just 12 points at Vanderbilt and 20 on the road against LSU. Marshall won't be taken by surprise this time around and have a secondary that's capable of keeping the Hilltoppers in check. The Thundering Herd rank 18th in the country in pass defense, allowing just 186.2 ypg. On the season, opposing quarterbacks are completing a mere 47.9% of their attempts against them for just 5.1 yards per attempt. 

It's also important to note that Marshall has a huge scheduling advantage in this game. While Western Kentucky was in action last week on the road against FIU, the Thundering Herd were off with a bye. Getting two full weeks to focus all their attention on stopping Doughty is a huge edge that can't be overlooked in this game. 

The other key here is Western Kentucky's defense is nothing special, so it's not like Marshall won't be able to put up their fair share of points in this one. The Hilltoppers are allowing just 24.7 ppg, but that's against opponents who only average 25.6 ppg. Marshall has scored 30+ in 5 of their last 6. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Thundering Herd. Road underdogs who are coming off a game where they allowed 9 points or less against an opponent that gave up 3 or less in the 1st half of their last game are 35-10 (78%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Marshall! 

4* Texas Tech/Texas NCAAF ATS Heavy Hitter on Texas 

I think we are seeing some great value here with the Longhorns as a pick’em at home against the Red Raiders. While Texas’ hopes of becoming bowl eligible are slim, needing to win out with their last game on the road against Baylor, that’s not going to prevent them from coming out motivated against their in-state rivals. Keep in mind this is also the Longhorns’ home finale of 2015 and they have played much better at home than on the road. Texas is 3-2 at home with their two losses coming by a combined 4-points against Cal (44-45) and Oklahoma State (27-30).

Texas Tech will certainly be looking for revenge, but with the Red Raiders having already become bowl eligible, I don’t see them matching the intensity of the Long Horns in this one. It’s also worth noting that Texas Tech has a history of not finishing the season strong. They are just 1-3 in their last 4 games and over the last 5 years are now 3-21 in their last 5 games of the regular season.

One of the reasons that Texas Tech is getting some respect here, is the fact they have a potent offense that is averaging 46.5 ppg and 590 ypg. This isn’t the first year the Red Raiders have put up big numbers offensively and they haven’t scored more than 24 points in their last 6 meetings against the Longhorns.

Texas doesn’t provide near the punch offensively, as they come in averaging just 24.9 ppg and 367 ypg, but they have been much better on this side of the ball at home, where they are averaging 39.0 ppg and 438 ypg. The Longhorns should have no problem adding to that trend against a horrible Texas Tech defense that is allowing 42.4 ppg and 550 ypg. An important stat here is the Red Raiders are allowing 5.8 yards/carry and will be facing a Texas offense that average 4.9 yards/carry (5.5 at home).

It’s also worth nothing that with the Red Raiders coming in off a 15-point win against Kansas State, that sets them up in a prime spot to fade. Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons off a win by 10 or more points and have lost these games by an average of 9.3 ppg. The Longhorns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a bye. Take Texas! 

4* Ohio/N Illinois ATS Heavy Hitter on N Illinois -

This may seem like a big number for the Huskies to be laying at home against an Ohio team that comes in off back-to-back blowout wins, but I don’t see the Bobcats posing much of a threat to Northern Illinois in this game. Sitting at 7-4 overall the Bobcats have safely secured a bowl bid and with them out of the MAC East race, there’s really not a whole lot here for Ohio to be excited about in this matchup.

Northern Illinois on the other hand has to win this game to secure the MAC West title. A loss coupled with a Toledo win over Western Michigan at home, would leave the Huskies out of the MAC Championship Game. Add in this being Northern Illinois’ home finale and I just don’t see the Bobcats being able to match the intensity of the Huskies.

The thing to keep in mind with Ohio’s two recent lopsided wins, is they came against two bad teams Kent State (3-8) and Ball State (3-8). When this team has went up against the top teams in the MAC, they haven’t been competitive. The Bobcats lost 24-62 at Bowling Green and 14-49 at home to Western Michigan. They also had a 17-41 defeat at Buffalo. While Northern Illinois hasn’t played Bowling Green, they defeated Buffalo 41-30 on the road and won 27-19 over Western Michigan.

From a matchups perspective it also points to a blowout. Northern Illinois comes in averaging 226 ypg and 4.6 yards/carry (5.4 at home) on the ground. Ohio is giving up 5.2 yards/carry on the season and 5.4 yards/carry inside conference play. The Huskies should be able to do as they please against the Bobcats defense. On the flip side of this, Ohio’s offensive figures to struggle to get going, as the Huskies should be able to make them one dimensional. Northern Illinois is giving up just 3.8 yards/carry and opposing quarterbacks are completing just 56.1% of their attempts inside conference play. 

The Huskies are 33-14 ATS in their last 47 against teams who are allowing 4.75 or more yards/carry and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 during Weeks 10 through 13 of the season. Ohio is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games off back-to-back conference wins by 10 or more points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 against teams who average 31 or more points/game. Take Northern Illinois! 

5* SEC Game of the Month on Missouri +

This is a perfect situation to back the Tigers at home. Missouri is sitting at 5-5 and still needs 1 more win to become bowl eligible. Tennessee on the other hand is in no mans land at 6-4. The Volunteers don't have much left to play, plus you have to factor in the expectations of this team. Tennessee came into the year believing it could contend for the SEC East title. 

Not only is Missouri fighting for bowl eligibility, but there's so much more at stake. This will be the Tigers home finale, which means it's senior day. If that wasn't enough, head coach Gary Pinkel has announced he will retire at the end of the season. This is Pinkel's 16th year on the job in Columbia and you can be assured the Tigers are going to lay it all on the line in this one. Add in this being a night game at Memorial Stadium and you really start to see the value with Missouri catching a touchdown against an uninterested Tennessee team. 

The Volunteers come into this game with a potent offense that is scoring 34.0 ppg, but I look for that unit to struggle here against a stout Missouri defense. The Tigers are giving up just 14.2 ppg at home and 8th nationally in total defense, allowing just 297.7 ypg. On the flip side of this, Missouri's offense hasn't been impressive to say the least, but they are going up against a soft Volunteers defense that allowed 24 at home a couple weeks ago against South Carolina. Missouri also comes in off a strong showing offensively last week, as they rushed for 190 yards and threw for 244 against a stingy BYU defense that was coming off a bye. 

Pinked always seems to have his teams playing their best football at the end of the year and its why The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in the month of November over the last 3 seasons. Tennessee on the other hand is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 in the month of November and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win by more than 20 points. Take Missouri!