4* NCAAF Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Ball State UNDER

I know the Cardinals defense hasn't been any good and that the OVER has cashed in each of Ball State's last 5 games. I believe it's created some value here with the UNDER in Tuesday's game against Miami (OH). The big key here is I just don't see the RedHawks being motivated at all for this one, as last week's 24-27 home loss to Eastern Michigan eliminated Miami (OH) from becoming bowl eligible.

The RedHawks could also be without their top two running backs, as both Alonzo Smith and Kenny Young are listed as questionable. Without the Miami putting up a big number, it's going to be hard for this one to eclipse the mark set by the books, as this Ball State offense is one of the worst in the country, as they come in averaging just 18.9 ppg and 331 ypg. I look for both teams to just go through the motions here, as the players likely can't wait to get this season over with. 

UNDER is also 11-1 in the RedHawks last 12 off a SU loss and 25-9 in their last 34 against bad defensive teams who are allowing 31 or more points/game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Washington -

I think we are getting great value here with the Huskies here at home against the Utes. Most are just assuming that Washington isn't going to show up after last week's loss to Stanford, which all but eliminated them from an invite to the playoffs. The thing is, I don't think this team had a great shot as it was and my money is on one of the best in the business in head coach Chris Petersen to get his team to bounce back in a big way at home. 

Utah caught the attention of a lot of people with their 4-0 start, which had them ranked in the Top 20, but they have gone just 1-5 since with the most recent being a crushing loss at home to Washington State.

Unlike Stanford, who has one of the elite running backs in college football, the Utes don't have that same kind of talent to have success against the Huskies defense, which is still ranked 4th in the country, giving up only 101.5 ypg. That's a big problem for Utah as they are a run-first team and use the run to open up the passing game. I think the Utes find it very difficult to score against a Huskies defense that is only allowing 11.2 ppg at home on the year. Take Washington! 

3* NCAAF Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cal +

I like the value here with the Golden Bears catching over two touchdowns in Saturday's rivalry game against Stanford, which is known as the "Big Game." You can never count out the dog in these rivalry games, as this isn't just another game. For Cal it's their biggest game of the season to date. It can be a lot harder for the favorite to bring the same intensity, especially when it's a big spread like this. Making it even harder on the Cardinal is the fact that they are coming off an emotional upset win at home over Washington and have a huge game on deck against Notre Dame. 

It's no secret that the key to beating Stanford starts with limiting star running back Bryce Love. I'm not saying Cal will shut him down, but head coach Justin Fuente is a defensive guy and I think his ability to game plan and the all-out effort we are going to get from the Bears, will allow them to keep him from having one of those video game type of games. If they can do that, they will be in good shape, as this is not your typical lock down Cardinal defense. 

Note that Stanford is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games off a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a game in which they covered the spread. Take Cal! 

4* NCAAF ATS Vegas INSIDER  on Boston’s College -

I like the value here with the Eagles even as a big favorite in Saturday's prime time matchup against the Huskies at Fenway Park. Boston College comes in off a hard fought 14-17 loss at home to NC State. Prior to that defeat the Eagles had been rolling, racking off 3 straight wins, including blowout wins at Virginia (41-10) and at home against Florida State (35-3). I look for BC to return right back to form here and lay a beating on UConn. 

The Huskies are coming off a 25-point loss at UCF and the week before fell 20-37 at home to USF. Those are the two best teams in the AAC and clearly this team came to play, as they covered the spread easily in both. I think they have a hard time bringing that same energy here against the Eagles. 

More than anything, I don't think UConn will have an answer for BC's star freshman running back A.J. Dillon, who just put up 196 yards against a great NC State defensive line. At the same time, the Huskies offense is built around their passing game and this Eagles defense is not one you want to have to attack through the air, especially without a threat of a running game. They are 23rd in the country, giving up just 187.1 passing yards/game. Opposing QB's are completing just 50.2% of their attempts against them, which is outstanding. In comparison, the Huskies are have allowed opposing teams to complete 67.9% of their attempts. Take Boston College! 

5* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech -

The Yellow Jackets have been a money making machine in 2017. With last week's 28-22 win at home over Georgia Tech as a 3-point dog they are now 7-1 ATS on the season. I think they keep it rolling here with a convincing road win over a struggling Duke team. After starting out the season 4-0 with an emphatic 41-17 win over Northwestern at home, the Blue Devils have lost 6 straight and the most recent was an ugly 16-21 loss at Army, where David Cutcliffe and his staff had two weeks to prepare for the Black Knights.

The extra week didn't exactly help them against the triple-option as Army put up 226 yards on the ground. Now they face an even better triple-option attack led by Georgia Tech's TaQuon Marshall and KirVonte Benson, who have combined to rush for 1,864 yards and 22 touchdowns. 

The other thing here is the Blue Devils just aren't clicking offensively right now. Duke has scored more than 20 points just once in their last 6 games and that was a mere 21 against Virginia. They are averaging a whopping 14.0 ppg and 308.2 ypg in conference play. Georgia Tech in comparison is averaging 29.1 ppg and 392.3 ypg in ACC action. I just don't think the Blue Devils can score enough to keep this within a touchdown. Take Georgia Tech! 

*Play was upgraded from a 3* to a 5*

4* NCAAF ATS NO BRAINER on Northwestern -

I like the value here with the Wildcats laying just a touchdown at home against the Gophers on what will be senior day in Northwestern's final home game of the season. The Wildcats are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, as they have won 5 straight, including a 23-13 win over Purdue this past weekend as a similar 6.5-point favorite. Their only losses in conference play are against two of the elite teams in the Big 10 in Wisconsin and Penn State. 

Minnesota comes in off an impressive 54-21 win at home against Nebraska, but I think that was more of the Cornhuskers throwing in the towel on their season than anything. The Gophers are still just 2-5 in Big 10 play and their other 4 wins have come against the likes of Buffalo, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee and Illinois. Note they only beat a horrible Illini team by 7 at home and also had an ugly home loss to Maryland.

Not only do I think Minnesota isn't that good, this is a horrible matchup for the one dimensional Gophers offense. Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to their ability to pick up yards in the passing game. They rank 119th out of 130 teams with just 143 ypg through the air. Even in their 52-point outburst against Nebraska they only had 105 yards passing. They are going to play right into the strength of Northwestern's defense, which ranks 7th in the country, giving up just 109.6 ypg against the run. Not only will it make it tough to score, but if they get behind this could get ugly. Take Northwestern! 

3* NCAAF Friday ATS BLOWOUT on Middle Tennessee -

I like the value here with the Blue Raiders as a short road favorite against the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky hasn't been anywhere close to the C-USA power this season and it's not a huge surprise, as they only brought back 10 starters and lost a great head coach in Jeff Brohm. The Hilltoppers are lucky to be 5-5 and come in having lost 3 straight. 

It hasn't been a great season for Middle Tennessee either, but the Blue Raiders struggles can be pinpointed to the absence of starting quarterback Brent Stockstill for 6 games. In his two games back from injury he's thrown for 445 yards with 6 touchdowns (3 in each game). He's going to make life miserable for a WKU defense that has allowed 30+ points in each of their last 4 games. 

The other thing here is the Blue Raiders have an underrated defense. Most would be surprised to see that Middle Tennessee ranks 26th in the country, giving up just 334 ypg, ranking inside the Top 40 against both the run and the pass. That secondary that's allowing just 193.9 ypg is key in this matchup, as the Hilltoppers are a one-dimensional passing offense. Take Middle Tennessee! 

3* NCAAF Thurs TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo OVER

For whatever reason the books have repeatedly set the bar way to low on the total for Ball State games. Last week their total was 49.5 against Northern Illinois and the game finished with 80 combined points. The game before they combined for 70 with a total of 47.5. The game before that saw 73 with a total of 55.5 and the contest before that their was 65 with a total of 48.5. 

I think we are once again going to see the total fly over the mark and it all stems from the Cardinals defense. Ball State is horrific on that side of the ball and even average offenses like Buffalo can score at will against it. The Cardinals have allowed 55 or more points in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Buffalo just scored 38 last week and had 68 in a game earlier this season against Northern Illinois. I think the Bulls score close to 50 and we should at least get 14 from the home team. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Western Michigan +

I like the value here with the Broncos catching more than a touchdown against the Huskies. Western Michigan might not be on the same level as a year ago, but they are still a very respectable 4-2 in MAC play and could very easily be 6-0. They had a fluke 13-14 loss against Akron, where they outgained the Zips by more than 200 yards. In their other loss they had a 28-14 lead going into the 4th quarter of a 28-35 loss. Even with those setbacks, the MAC West title is still within reach if they can knock off Northern Illinois and Toledo in their last two games. 

The Huskies are a good team, but aren't built to blow quality teams like the Broncos out. Northern Illinois is built more to win close games with their strong rushing attack and great defense. The key here is the Western Michigan defense should be able to keep that Huskies rushing attack in check. The Broncos are allowing just 119.3 rushing yards/game in conference play 

Northern Illinois is also just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record, while the Broncos are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 road games. Take Western Michigan! 

4* NCAAF Tues Night VEGAS INSIDER on Kent State

The public will be inclined to lay the big number on the road with Central Michigan here against a Kent State team that is just 2-8, but I think the value is with the Golden Flashes as a big home dog. It might not seem like Kent State has anything to play for, but this is senior night, so I expect a big effort here. 

As for the Chippewas, they come in off a 42-30 win over Eastern Michigan, which secured bowl eligibility, which is always a big deal for these schools from smaller conferences. I think we see Central Michigan come out a bit flat here. The offense is built around their passing attack, which plays into the strength of the Kent State defense, as the Flashes rank 35th in the country vs the pass, allowing just 197.4 ypg. At the same time, I don't the Chippewas are good enough defensively to keep Kent State from scoring enough to cover this big number. 

Central Michigan has also struggled in this spot in the past, as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record and are also a mere 1-5 ATS mark in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Kent State! 

4* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon State +

I like the value here with the Beavers catching a huge number against the Wildcats. Oregon State has been playing much better football of late, as they are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and haven't lost by more than 14 in each of their last 3 games. 

There's no question that Arizona is the better team, but it's asking a lot for the Wildcats to bring the intensity needed to turn this into a blowout. In fact, this is a horrible spot for Arizona, who are coming off a crushing loss at USC last week, which ended any hopes they had of winning the South and playing in the Pac-12 title game. 

Wildcats are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games, while the Beavers are 10-4 against the number in their last 14 conference games. Arizona is also just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in November. On top of that the Beavers are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including a 6-1 ATS mark in their last 7 trips to Arizona. Take Oregon State! 

3* NCAAF Prime Time UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG on Mississippi State +

This probably won't seem like enough points for the Bulldogs to be catching at home against the Crimson Tide, but I see a ton of value here with Mississippi State catching two touchdowns in this matchup. I know the Bulldogs didn't perform well against the other two top teams in the SEC, losing badly to both Georgia and Auburn, but both of those came on the road. Not only is Mississippi State playing at home this time, but it couldn't be a better spot with this being a prime time night game, which means the crowd is going to be electric. 

I believe the biggest key to slowing down Alabama is a strong defensive front that can keep the Crimson Tide from running it at will. I believe Mississippi State has the talent up front and the numbers back that up, as they are allowing just 84 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run at home this season. I also think the mobility of Bulldogs starting quarterback Nick Fitzgerald gives Mississippi State some hope offensively. 

Another big factor here is the health of the Crimson Tide. Alabama recently lost star linebacker Shaun Dion Hamilton, who is second on the team with 40 tackles. They also could be without one of their top defensive linemen in Da'Shawn hand. Offensively, starting left tackle Jonah Williams is questionable. I also think Jalen Hurts is playing at less than 100%. After rushing for 100+ yards in 3 of the Tide's first 4 games, he's only averaging 38.9 ypg in the last 4. Take Mississippi State! 

3* NCAAF Afternoon ATS DOMINATOR on Nevada -

I like the value here with the Wolf Pack at home against an awful San Jose State team. Nevada might not look like a team that should be laying three scores, as they are just 1-8 on the season, but that just goes to show how bad this Spartans team is. 

San Jose State's only win on the season came against FCS foe Cal Poly, as they are 0-8 against FBS opponents. The Spartans have been especially bad on the road, where they are 0-5 and losing by an average of 30.8 ppg. While Nevada is just 1-3 at home, they are only getting outscored at home by a single point per game and are averaging a healthy 32.2 ppg at home. I just don't see San Jose State generating enough points here to keep this within 20-points. 

Last time out Nevada lost 14-41 at Boise State. That looks bad, but it's actually a positive for this matchup, as the Wolf Pack are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after a contest where they scored 14 or fewer points. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in November. Take Nevada! 

4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Maryland +

I like the value here with the Terrapins catching 3 scores against the Wolverines on Saturday. The public perception on Michigan has improved dramatically the last two weeks with blowout wins over both Rutgers (35-14) and Minnesota (33-10). The thing is both of those games came at home. 

Even with the recent change at quarterback to red-shirt true freshman Brandon Peters, the Wolverines still offer little to no threat of a passing attack. In fact, Michigan hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in each of their last 5 games. While the running game has been strong, they are averaging over 30 yards less than their season average on the road and just 4.1 yards/carry compared to their season mark of 5.0. 

Another key factor here is this being a big lookahead spot for the Wolverines, who have a road game against Wisconsin and their huge rivalry game against Ohio State at home on deck. It's also worth noting that the Wolverines are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after a win by more than 20 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Maryland! 

3* NCAAF Prime Time ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +

It's been smooth sailing for the Bulldogs so far this season, but I think their perfect season comes to an end Saturday on the road against Auburn. The Tigers are one of the better teams in the country that no one is talking about, as they are just a couple of breaks away from having an undefeated record. Their only two losses came on the road and one was a 8-point defeat at Clemson and the other a 4-point loss at LSU. 

This is without a doubt the best team that Georgia has had to play since they took on Notre Dame back in early September, which they barely escaped with a 20-19 win. They have basically gone 7 straight games without being tested and it can be tough when things have been so easy for so long and then you find yourself in a dog fight, especially on the road in a hostile environment like Jordan-Hare Stadium.  

Another factor here is that while the Bulldogs are trying to stay perfect, this isn't a must-win game for them. They could lose this and as long as they win out and secure the SEC title game, they will be in the playoffs. Auburn on the other hand has everything to play for, as they can still win the SEC West with a win here and a win at home against Alabama. I think the Tigers are going to be up to the task. Take Auburn! 

4* NCAAF Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Louisville -

It's been a tough go of things for the Cardinals in 2017, but I like this spot for Louisville at home against Virginia. They still have one of the most potent offenses in the country behind last year's Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. The Cardinals are averaging 36.7 ppg and nearly 550 total yards on the season. While there's not the same hype around Jackson as their was last year, he's having just as good a season, throwing for 2,800 yards and 18 touchdowns and rushing for another 1,000+ yards and 14 scores. 

I look for Louisville's offense to put up a big number here against a struggling Virginia defense that has allowed 31 or more points in each of their last 3 games. I know the defense for the Cardinals hasn't been great this season, but they should play one of their better games coming off their bye, as they have had two weeks to prepare for Virginia's offensive attack. Note that while the Cavaliers put up 40 last week against Georgia Tech, they had scored 20 or fewer in each of their previous 3 games. 

Another key factor here that I think will get overlooked is that this is actually a big letdown spot for Virginia. With last week's win over the Yellow Jackets the Cavaliers became bowl eligible for the first time since 2011 and only the second time since 2007. I look for them to come out flat and that should be more than enough for the Cardinals to turn this into a blowout. Take Louisville! 

4* NCAAF Early Bird NO BRAINER on Ohio State -

The betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with the Buckeyes at this line after that horrible showing in last week's 24-55 loss on the road against a then unranked Iowa team. I'm showing over 70% of the tickets coming in on Michigan State and yet we have seen this line get even bigger. I'll take my chances here going against the trendy underdog pick in the Spartans and call for Ohio State to win here in a blowout. 

There's no question that it stings a little for Ohio State to have their playoff hopes crushed with that loss to Iowa, but everyone was saying the same thing about USC after their loss to Notre Dame and the Trojans have followed up by playing their best football. Like USC, Ohio State still has a chance to win their conference and that's definitely something worth playing for. 

Another thing is no team likes to be embarrassed like the Buckeyes were last week in Kinnick. That was the most points every allowed by an Urban Meyer coached team, so there's just as much motivation for the coaches as there is the players to turn this thing around. 

Lastly, I'm not completely sold on Michigan State being as good as everyone thinks. The win over Penn State looks great, but that was a massive letdown spot for the Nittany Lions off that crushing collapse against Ohio State the week before. I think reality sets in and we see a similar outcome to their 20-point loss at home to Notre Dame. Take Ohio State! 

3* NCAAF Public ATS DESTROYER on Boston College +

The betting public is going to be all over a ranked NC State team laying just 3-points on the road against Boston College, but I like the Eagles to win and cover on Saturday. The Eagles have been a covering machine of late, cashing winning tickets in each of their last 6 games, including a 35-3 blowout win over FSU at home in their most recent game. They also won on the road over both Louisville and Virginia. 

A big reason for their surge has been the play of true freshman running back A.J. Dillon, who was the prize recruit for Steve Addazio this past year. Dillon has rushed for 665 in his last 5 games, which includes that epic 272 yard and 4 TD performance against Louisville. BC's offense has come to life with Dillon at the focal point, scoring 45, 41 and 35 points in their last 3 games. 

Not to take anything away from NC State, which is a good team, but you have to take into the account this being a horrible spot for the Wolfpack off that crushing 31-38 loss at home to Clemson, which likely cost them the ACC Atlantic title, as Clemson only has 1 conference game left and it's at home against FSU. I look for NC State to come out flat on the road and wouldn't be shocked if the Eagles won here convincingly. Take Boston College! 

4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Indiana -

I'm going to lay the points with the Hoosiers on the road in Saturday's battle of two Big Ten teams looking for their first conference win. I think the fact that these two teams are both 0-6 in Big Ten play has this line a lot lower than it should be, as I think the gap here in talent should have this closer to double-digits. 

Unlike the Fighting Illini, Indiana has at least been competitive. Out of their 6 conference losses, 3 have come by 8 points or less and the other 3 were against the top 3 teams in the league in Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. The closest Illinois has come to a win is a 7-point loss at Minnesota and the only reason it was that close is they scored a garbage TD in the final 30 seconds. 

The other big key here is Indiana still has a lot to play for, as they can reach bowl eligibility if they win out. They certainly have to like their chances with a home game against Rutgers and road slate at Purdue left after this week's game. Illinois has nothing to play for and simply don't have enough offense to make this a game against a very underrated Hoosiers defense. Take Indiana! 

5* NCAAF Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Rutgers +

I think one of the hardest things for the public to do is factor in the emotional letdown teams like Penn State have when they go from thinking they got a shot at making the playoffs and playing for a national championship to having absolutely nothing to play for this late in the season. They just go off what they have seen to this point and here they see a big mismatch in talent with the Nittany Lions going up against the Scarlet Knights. 

While Rutgers is a bottom-tier team in the Big Ten, they are a respectable 3-3 in Big Ten play and are playing with confidence right now, having won 3 of their last 4. While this game means nothing to Penn State, who it means everything to the Scarlet Knights, as they want to prove themselves against one of the elite teams in the conference, plus they still need two more wins to become bowl eligible. 

I'm not saying Rutgers is going to pull off the upset, but I think they can certainly keep this within the massive spread here against a disinterested Penn State team. Keep in mind the Nittany Lions are now just 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 after a SU loss and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference loss. Take Rutgers! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER 

No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER 

No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS 

3* NCAAF Thurs. Total DESTROYER on Ball State UNDER

This is simply too many points for Thursday's MAC matchup that has Northern Illinois hosting Ball State. The reason we are seeing such a big total is the fact that the Cardinals have allowed 50+ points in each of their last 3 games, but the key here is the Huskies just aren't a dynamic offensive team, as they are only averaging 26.7 ppg. Conditions are also not going to be ideal for scoring, as temps will be right around freezing with a blistering 10+ mph wind. 

At the same time the Ball State offense is atrocious, as they come in averaging a mere 12.4 ppg on the road. Scoring won't come any easier against this Northern Illinois defense, which is only giving up 15.7 ppg at home this season and have been dominant against bad teams like the Cardinals. 

UNDER is 6-1 in the Huskies last 7 home games and a staggering 13-3 in their last 16 games played in the month of November.

Adding to this is a great system where we look to take the UNDER with bad teams like Ball State who have struggled to cover. UNDER is 80-38 (68%) going back to 1992 when you have a team that comes in having failed to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 playing on a Thursday. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Wed Night NO BRAINER on Kent State +

I like the value here with the Golden Flashes catching more than 3 touchdowns in Wednesday's showdown with Western Michigan. Kent State is not a good football team. They are just 2-7 on the season and come in off a 28-point loss at home to lowly Bowling Green. That will have a lot of people looking to lay this big number with the Broncos, but this Western Michigan team is hurting right now. 

The Broncos recently lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink to a broken collarbone and just don't pose the same kind of threat throwing the ball with true freshman Reece Goddard under center. It doesn't stop there, as they lost two more running backs to season ending injuries, giving them 3 RB's on IR for the year. They still have their top guy in Jarvion Franklin, but I think he's going to be asked to do too much. If Kent State can simply keep him from going off and racking up big chunk plays, it's going to be really hard for the Broncos offense to put up the kind of points needed to cover this big spread. 

It's also worth pointing out the books have been inflating the number on Western Michigan all season, as the Broncos are just 3-6 ATS and a mere 1-3 in their last 4. Last time out they suffered a crushing loss to Central Michigan at home and are just 6-16 ATS in their last 222 home games off a conference loss. Take Kent State! 

3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Miami -

I like the value here with the RedHawks laying less than a touchdown at home against the Zips. Akron comes in at 5-4 overall and 4-1 in the MAC, but are no where close to as good as their record would indicate. The Zips have been extremely fortunate in close games and the overall numbers really tell just how lucky they have been. Akron ranks 117th out of 130 FBS teams in total offense at just 330.g ypg and are 107th in total defense, giving up 444.1 ypg. 

While the Zips aren't as good as their record, this Miami (OH) team is much better than their 3-6 mark overall and 2-3 record in the MAC. The RedHawks have are averaging 6.2 yards/play and 427.6 ypg inside conference play, but have only been able to translate that to 25.2 ppg. With the expected return of starting quarterback Gus Ragland, I think we see Miami lay it on a bad Akron team. Note that even if Ragland doesn't play, I still like the RedHawks to win here by 7 or more. Take Miami (OH)! 

4* NCAAF Tuesday Night VEGAS INSIDER on Buffalo -

This might seem like a big number to lay on the Bulls, given they come in having lost 4 straight and the Falcons off an impressive 44-16 win at Kent State last week. I just feel this Buffalo team is a lot better than people think and I'm simply not buying anything into the Falcons win over a horrible Kent State team. 

The Bulls have suffered 3 heartbreaking losses during their 4-game skid. The first being that epic 7OT game against Western Michigan, which they fell 68-71. The other two were 1-point losses to both Northern Illinois and Akron. Buffalo could just as easily be 6-3 instead of 3-6, but now need to win out to make a bowl. Add in the revenge the Bulls have against this Bowling Green team (lost 6 straight) and I think we get the best they have to offer tonight at home. 

Prior to their blowout win over Kent State, the Falcons had 3 losses inside MAC play by double-digits. Even after holding the Flashes to just 16 points, Bowling Green still comes in allowing 30.2 ppg and 455 ypg inside conference play. That defense of the Falcons is giving up a staggering 5.5 yards/carry and more than 100 total yards over what their opponents are averaging. Take Buffalo! 

5* NCAAF Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on San Diego State UNDER

I don't see this one coming close to the total that's been set by the books, as Saturday's late night MWC action features two of the worst offenses in the country in San Diego State and San Jose State. The Aztecs are 83rd in the country in scoring at 26.2 ppg and the Spartans are 120th at a dreadful 18.9 ppg. San Diego State also ranks 98th in total offense and San Jose State is 117th. 

Now I could see the Aztecs eclipsing their average, as this Spartans defense isn't very good. However, I don't see them going off, as they are struggling on the offensive side of the ball right now, scoring just 45 points in their last 3 games combined. 

At the same time, we are still going to be in great shape if San Diego State has a big offensive game, as there's a decent chance the Spartans don't reach double-digits. The Aztecs have a top tier defense that is allowing just 15.2 ppg and 255 ypg at home this season. San Jose State has also scored 13 or fewer points in 4 separate games this year. 

UNDER is 27-11-1 in the Aztecs last 39 games vs a team with a losing record, 31-14 in their last 45 road games after going UNDER the total in their previous game and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games when they come in having failed to cover 2 out of their last 3. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Oregon +

I like the value here with the Ducks as a big dog against the Huskies. Washington is in a difficult place right now, as they have to deal with the pressure of knowing that another loss and their hopes of getting back to the CFB Playoffs are out the window. 

Oregon on the other hand is playing with some confidence after an impressive 41-20 win at home over Utah to snap a 3-game skid. The Ducks also have revenge on their minds after the embarrassing 21-70 loss they suffered at home to these Huskies a year ago. This is a much-improved Ducks team from last season, despite the fact that they only come in at 5-4. I'm confident they would have had a much better record right now had star quarterback Justin Herbert not got injured. 

Speaking of Herbert, I think there's a good chance he plays in this game. He's been upgraded to questionable but has been practicing with the 1st team this week. Given how much this game means to the Ducks I think he finds a way on to the field and with him this spread is way too much. In fact, Herbert could be enough to propel the Ducks to a win. Take Oregon! 

3* NCAAF Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Oregon UNDER

I think we are going to see a much more competitive and low-scoring game than what the books are anticipating. While it's still got some holes, this Oregon defense is greatly improved over last year's team, which allowed 41.4 ppg and 518 ypg. So far through 9 games the Ducks are allowing just 29.2 ppg and 370 ypg. 

I also like the matchup here for Oregon. Washington's offense is built around their running game and that plays right into the strength of the Ducks defense, which comes in 16th nationally, allowing just 117.6 ypg. We can also expect a max effort here from Oregon, as they are out for revenge from last year's embarrassing 21-70 home loss to the Huskies. 

As for the Ducks offense, they could get back starting quarterback Justin Herbert, but I don't see them lighting up the scoreboard on the road against an elite Washington defense, which comes in 4th in the country, giving up just 12.1 ypg and 2nd in total defense at 236.2 ypg. They also matchup well with Oregon's run-first attack, as they are 2nd in the nation vs the run, giving up just 71.6 ypg and are only allowing 2.2 yards/carry. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR on Nevada +

I like the value here with the Wolf Pack catching over 3 touchdowns against the Broncos. Boise State comes in having won 4 straight and have gone 3-1 ATS during this stretch. While a good run, outside of the win at San Diego State, the other 3 weren't that impressive. I think it has them way overvalued in a bad spot here against Nevada. 

The Wolf Pack got off to a miserable start under first year head coach Jay Norvell, as they started out the season 0-5 before finally breaking through in a 35-21 win over Hawaii. While they lost their next two, they were impressive in defeat, losing 42-44 at Colorado State, who is one of the favorites to win the MWC and 42-45 to Air Force. As you can see the offense is starting to click, which was to be expected given Norvell's expertise on that side of the ball. 

Couple key factors here are Nevada has had extra time to prepare for this game coming off their bye week. This is also a big lookahead spot for Boise State, who has a huge game on deck at Colorado State, which will likely decide the Mountain Division and who represents that side in the MWC title game. 

Broncos are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 when listed as a favorite, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing their previous game on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games off a conference win. Take Nevada! 

5* NCAAF Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Cal -

I really like the spot and the value we are getting with the Golden Bears only laying a touchdown at home against the Beavers. Oregon State is getting some love after covering each of their last 3, including a near upsets in each of their last two at home against Colorado and Stanford. Keeping it close against the Cardinal looks great on paper, but Stanford was without Love and simply aren't anywhere close to the same offensive force without him. 

Now the Beavers have to try and pick themselves off the mat yet again and I just don't see it happening on the road, where they are getting outscored by 29.3 ppg on the season. Cal should have beat Arizona in their last home game, but ended up losing 44-45. Their previous home game saw them knock off previously unbeaten Washington State 37-3. They also played USC tough at home and knocked off Ole Miss at home as a 4.5-point dog. 

Sitting at 4-5 and two road games left on the schedule, this is a must-win game for Cal if they want to make a bowl game in the first season under Justin Fuente and you can bet Fuente and his staff are going to do everything in their power to get to that 6-win mark to take advantage of the extra practice time that comes with a bowl game. 

Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at home and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Cal! 

4* NCAAF Vegas ATS HEAVY HITTER on Arkansas -

The Razorbacks were able to snap a 3-game losing streak with a thrilling 38-37 win at Ole Miss this past weekend and I think they carry over that momentum into a blowout win over an inferior Coastal Carolina team. Keep in mind that this a game Arkansas needs to win if they want to put themselves in a position to make a bowl, as they are just 3-5. 

While I'm sure the Razorbacks aren't happy with their record, three of their losses came on the road against better teams in conference play and the other two were at home against ranked teams. This is the easiest opponent they have had since their opening week 49-7 win over FAMU. 

Coastal Carolina won their opener over UMass in their first game at the FBS level, but it's been all downhill since, as the Chanticleers have lost 7 straight. This is by far their toughest challenge to date and I just see them keeping it close. Despite the easy schedule, they Coastal Carolina ranks 103rd in total offense at just 360.9 ypg and defensively have allowed 50+ on 3 different occasions. I look for the Razorbacks to easily eclipse 50+ here and I'll bank on the defense making enough plays to win here by more than the number. Take Arkansas! 

5* NCAAF Big 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa +

I think we are getting great value here with the Hawkeyes catching 3 scores at home against the Buckeyes. Ohio State just pulled off a miraculous 39-38 win at home against Penn State when it looked like they were primed to lose and in turn have their playoff hopes come crashing to the ground. That win may have saved their season, but I also think it puts them in a prime letdown spot here on the road against a stingy Iowa team, especially with a huge home game on deck against Michigan State that could end up deciding the Big Ten East title race. 

This isn't a great Iowa team by any means, but they have shown they can hang with the big boys, losing at home to Penn State by just 2 in a game the Nittany Lions needed a last second touchdown to pull out the win. The Hawkeyes were dominated in yards by Penn State, but just have a way of keeping games close regardless of the gap in talent, especially at home. All 3 of their losses this season have come by a touchdown or less. That streak might come to an end, but I think they do more than enough here to cover this big number. 

Hawkeyes are an impressive 27-5 ATS in their last 32 games against similar teams to Ohio State who are excellent rushing teams, averaging 5.25 or more yards/carry. They are also 18-5 in their last 23 vs a team that averages 37 or more points/game. Buckeyes are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take Iowa! 

3* NCAAF Public ANNIHILATOR on UConn +

South Florida hopes of a perfect season came crashing to an end in last weeks' shocking 24-28 home loss to Houston. While a 7-1 record might not seem like something to hang your head on, it can be tough for these small conference teams to rebound from their first defeat this late in the season. 

I think we see a flat USF team take the field on the road here against the Huskies, who have the offensive fire-power to keep this within striking distance for the cover. Connecticut has the 23rd ranked passing attack in the country at 292.4 ypg and that's important, as they are well equipped to play from behind, which also opens up the possibility of a back-door cover if things do get out of hand early. 

It's also worth noting that while USF comes in ranked 20th in the country in total defense, allowing just 319 ypg, they have not been nearly as good in league play, giving up 405 ypg in their 5 conference games. 

Huskies are a solid 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games in the month of November, while the Bulls are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Take Connecticut! 

3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Wake Forest +

I like the value here with the Demon Deacons catching two touchdowns against the Fighting Irish. Considering that Notre Dame is off a 35-14 beating of NC State and have won 6 straight by at least 20 points, most will be quick to back the Irish against unranked Wake Forest.

What's getting overlooked is this being a horrible spot for Notre Dame. The Irish have had to work their tails off to make up for that earlier loss to Georgia at home and it's paid off as they were No. 3 in the first CFB Playoff rankings. It would only be human nature for them to let their guard down here against an inferior opponent, especially given their last two games were both high-profile matchups against USC and NC State and to top it off they got another huge game on deck at Miami. 

Wake isn't an elite team by any means, but are 5-3 for a reason and just beat Louisville at home by 10. The previous two games they lost at both Clemson and Georgia Tech, but only lost each contest by 14 points. This team is battle-tested and while they might be outclassed, they are going to go in with the belief they can win. I think they give the Irish a big scare here and cover the number. Take Wake Forest! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Stanford UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here on the UNDER given the conditions here are going to be ideal for a low-scoring game. The expected game-time temperature is just above freezing at 34 degrees and there's a chance for freezing rain. That's certainly not ideal for a Washington State offense that is more reliant on their passing game than any other team in the country. The Cougars are 129th out of 130 teams in rushing at 84.1 ypg and lead the nation in passing at 386.7 ypg. 

At the same time, the strength of this Stanford defense is their secondary, which has allowed a mere 159 yards through the air in their last two games and held each of their last 4 opponents to under 240 yards passing. 

As for the Cardinals offense I think there's a good chance they are once again without star running back Bryce Love. He's listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision, but hasn't been practicing and even if he does play figures to be at less than 100%. Stanford's offense was putrid without him in their last game against Oregon State, scoring just 15 points. This is also a very good Washington State defense, that ranks 16th in total defense, giving up only 309 ypg and are allowing just 16.8 ppg at home. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on UAB UNDER

I just don't think there's enough offensive fire-power here to eclipse this mark set by the books. Rice is simply one of the worst offensive teams in the country. The Owls are 129th out of 130 FBS teams in scoring at 13.1 ppg and 121st in total offense at just 315.7 ypg. UAB isn't a great defensive team by any means, but are good enough to shut down Rice. The Blazers are only giving up 18.7 ppg at home. 

The biggest thing here is neither of these teams are any good at throwing the ball, which means a lot of run plays. That will keep the clock running and limit the number of possessions for both sides. Rice is 120th in passing at 148.4 ypg and UAB is 98th at 188.9 ypg. 

UNDER is 4-1 in the Blazers last 5 home games and 40 in their last 4 overall. UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the Owls last 6 off a game where they didn't cover and 3-0-1 in their last 4 on the road. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Early Bird No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wisconsin -

A big talking point with the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings is how the Badgers are 9th despite their 8-0 start. The biggest reason for Wisconsin not being higher is because of their schedule not being hard enough. No question the Badgers have been listening to what people are saying and I think we see one of their better efforts of the season, as they will be out to show everyone they are for real. 

Wisconsin has had some games end up closer than expected, but none of them were every really in doubt. At the same time, their defense is the real deal. The Badgers are 5th in the country, giving up just 268.1 ypg. I think we see that defense make life miserable for the Hoosiers, who scored just 14 against Penn State and 9 against the Spartans, two defenses that I would rank on par with the Badgers. I also don't think Indian's defense is as good as people think. They gave up 27 to a bad Michigan offense at home and last week allowed 42 to a Maryland team that has a 3rd string QB. 

Hoosiers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. Badgers have been a covering machine on the road, cashing in 8 of their last 9 ATS away from home. Take Wisconsin! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Houston UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Saturday's AAC matchup that has Houston hosting East Carolina. I just feel the total here is way to high for this matchup. East Carolina's defense has allowed 50+ on 4 different occasions, but are coming off their best showing, holding BYU to 17 in their last game. 

The key here is the Cougars just aren't an explosive offensive team. They have only eclipsed 30 points in 3 of their 8 games this season and have not scored over 40 once. That includes a game against Texas Tech's horrific defense where they only managed 24 points.

Most of the teams that have exposed the Pirates defense have done so through the air. Houston has become more of a run first team of late, rushing 40 or more times in each of their last 4 games. Another key here for ECU's defense is they have had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off their bye. I think that will be more than enough to keep this under the mark. 

UNDER is 11-2 in the Cougars last 13 home games off a win, 20-9 in their last 29 when listed as a favorite and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 games on Saturday. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Friday Night Total NO BRAINER on FAU/Marshall UNDER

I think we are getting an inflated total here in Friday's C-USA East showdown between FAU and Marshall. Lane Kiffin and the Owls have been lighting it up on the offensive side of the ball inside conference play at 51.7 ppg. On the other side Marshall is coming off a game against FIU that had 71 combined points and have scored 30+ in each of their last 3. 

The books have no choice but to set the total here higher than it should be, as the public is going to look to pound the over with this being a prime time game. What's getting overlooked is just how big of a game this is. The winner of this game will be in a great position to win the East Division and play in the C-USA title game. 

I'm not saying these two teams aren't going to put up points, just not at the rate needed to eclipse this total. Unlike a lot of high-scoring teams that sling it all over the place, FAU is built around their rushing attack, which ranks 8th in the country at 295.9 ypg. I'm willing to bet they don't run all over the Herd, who own a top tier defense for a non-Group of 5 team. Marshall ranks 15th in scoring defense (17.6 ppg) and 24th in total defense (325.6 ypg). 

UNDER is 21-8 in Marshall's last 29 road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3, 11-3 in their last 14 in the second half of the season and 10-2 in their last 12 vs a conference opponent. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Friday Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Marshall +

We are getting great value here with the Thundering Herd against FAU. Marshall is simply getting undervalued off a loss at home to FIU in their last game, where they lost 30-41 as a 15-point favorite. That's not as bad as loss as it looks, as FIU is better than they get credit for. It was also a bit of a misleading final, as the Herd outgained the Panthers by over 100 yards and had a 29-12 edge in first downs.

On the other side of this, FAU is overvalued off four straight covers where they have by a minimum of 14 points. The Owls also get a lot of love because the public is familiar with their head coach in Lane Kiffin. 

This is a really tough matchup for FAU, as their offense is built around their running game and the Thundering Herd are a top tier defense, giving up just 17.6 ppg and 326 ypg. They only allow 124 ypg and 3.5 yards/carry against the run. If the offense isn't clicking, the Owls could be in trouble, as their defense isn't anything special, as they have allowed 28 or more points 5 different times, including each of their last 3. 

I think this should be closer to a field goal, making this an easy play at this price. Keep in mind the Owls are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 as a home favorite. Take Marshall! 

3* NCAAF Sun Belt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Idaho +

I think the Vandals are showing some great value here as a 3-score dog against the Trojans. Troy was already getting a ton of love from the books prior to their win over LSU and this line is certainly inflated because of that. For those that have looked the other way and faded the Trojans, they are making some nice profits, especially going against Troy at home, where they are 0-4 ATS on the season. 

Not only are we taking advantage of a line that's a lot higher than it should be, I also think this Idaho team is better than they get credit for. They come at just 3-5, but only lost by 9 on the road to Western Michigan and by just 3 at home to a very good Appalachian State team. I think they make a game of this and wouldn't be shocked if they pulled off the upset. 

Troy is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 weekday games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Idaho! 

5* NCAAF American Athletic (AAC) GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy -

I look for the Midshipmen to lay it on the Owls Thursday in big time revenge game for Navy, who lost to Temple in last year's AAC Championship Game. The Midshipmen are also going to be locked in after losing their last two against two of the better teams not just in the ACC but the country in Memphis and UCF. Note that Navy was right there with both of those teams and could have easily won each contest. 

Temple on the other hand has lost 4 of 5 with their only win coming against a sad East Carolina team. The Owls just lost at Army in OT and prior to that fell 24-28 as a double-digit home favorite to UConn. I just don't see Temple's defense being able to slow down Navy's triple-option attack. That will have the Midshipmen dominating the time of possession and I look for them to pull away in the 2nd half for a comfortable double-digit win. 

Navy has been a covering machine when they get the chance to play on Thursday, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in November. Take Navy! 

5* NCAAF Mid-American (MAC) GAME OF THE MONTH  on Eastern Michigan -

I got no problem laying this big number with the Eagles at home against the Cardinals. You will have a hard time finding a team that's playing worse than Ball State right now. They are 0-4 inside MAC play with the average loss coming by 42 points/game. The Cardinals are averaging a mere 8.0 ppg and giving up 50 ppg. 

Eastern Michigan is one of the better 2-6 teams you are going to find, as the Eagles have simply had some bad luck during their current 6-game losing streak, which has seen them lose all 6 games by a touchdown or less. That trend comes to an end tonight against the Cardinals. Note that Eastern Michigan lost at Toledo by 5, to W Michigan by 3 and at N. Illinois by 3. It just so happens that Ball State has also played those 3 teams and in those games were outscored 119-29. 

Cardinals are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 10 or more and the Eagles are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after the first month of the season and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after rushing for fewer than 100 yards in their previous game. Take Eastern Michigan! 

5* NCAAF Wednesday NO LIMIT TOP PLAY on Western Michigan -

I think we are getting some great value here with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown at home against the Chippewas. Western Michigan will be without starting quarterback Jon Wassink, but I liked what I saw out of true freshmen Reece Goddard when he came in and guided Western Michigan to an overtime win at Eastern Michigan. 

The big key here with Goddard and the Broncos offense is they shouldn't need him to throw the ball a lot to have success against this Central Michigan defense. Western Michigan comes in with the 20th ranked rushing attack in the country, averaging 235.6 ypg. They have been even better than that with 252 ypg in conference play. The Chippewas are 98th against the run, giving up 192.1 ypg and have allowed 200+/game over their last 3. 

I also think the Broncos defense can keep Central Michigan's offense in check. Sure the Chippewas put up 56 last time out against Ball State, but the Cardinals defense is atrocious. Prior to that Central Michigan has scored 17 or fewer in 4 of their previous 5 games. I think they revert back here and struggle to make a game of this. Take Western Michigan! 

4* NCAAF Tuesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Kent State +

I like the value here with the Golden Flashes catching a field goal at home against the Falcons. Bowling Green is just 1-7 and simply don't deserve to be laying points on the road. Keep in mind this team was only a 1.5-point home favorite against FCS foe South Dakota earlier this season. 

The Falcons come in off an ugly 17-48 loss at home to Northern Illinois and are now giving up a staggering 37.7 ppg. Teams are running all over the, as they are giving up 258 yards/game and 5.6 yards/carry against the run. They are also giving up 8.3 yards/pass attempt. I know this Kent State offense has been horrible, but this is a team they can have success against, especially with the game at home. 

Bowling Green is a miserable 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall, 2-6 in their last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after a loss by more than 20 points. Take Kent State! 

5* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH on Tennessee +

The perception with the Volunteers is they have thrown in the towel on this season and it's just a matter of time before Butch Jones is fired. While Jones is likely headed out of Knoxville, I'm not buying Tennessee's players not showing to play the rest of the way. I think the Vols take it personal that they are a near touchdown dog to Kentucky

The Wildcats are 5-2, but have had some fortunate breaks in close games. In fact, all 5 of their wins have come by single-digits. This team certainly didn't look like a top tier team that should be laying this number against the Vols in last week's 38-point loss to Mississippi State. Tennessee has won 5 straight by 20+ ppg and are 31-1 all-time in the series with the Wildcats. 

Kentucky is 3-12 ATS when they come in having gone 4-2 or better in their last 6 games and 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they enter with 4 or more covers in their last 6 games. 

There's a great system in play that backs going against the grain with a struggling team like Tennessee. Teams that are getting outgained by 75 or more yards/game and off 2 straight games where they had 275 or less total yards are 34-12 (74%) ATS when they are listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Tennessee! 

4* NCAAF Big Money ATS NO BRAINER on Mississippi State -

I really like this Mississippi State team and the fact they are favored on the road against the Aggies  in a night game really says it all, as the public will surely take the bait with Texas A&M. The Bulldogs only two losses have come against Auburn and Georgia on the road, arguably the two best teams in the SEC outside of Alabama. 

Texas A&M is sitting at 5-2, but that could easily be flipped and they could be 2-5 with 3 wins by 7 points or less. The most recent a 19-17 win at Florida. I just don't trust this team in a big spot. I believe the difference in this game is going to be the Mississippi State defense, which has really shown some improvement in year one under DC Todd Gratham. The Bulldogs are 17th in scoring defense, allowing just 17.9 ppg and are 8th in total defense, giving up just 281 ypg. Last year they allowed 31.8 ppg and 459 ypg. 

Junior QB Nick Fitzgerald gave Texas A&M's defense fits last year, throwing for 209 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for 182 yards and 2 scores. I think Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs offense makes enough plays here to secure the win. Take Mississippi State! 

3* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -

I'll take the Hawkeyes laying a touchdown at home against the Golden Gophers on Saturday. Iowa comes in having lost 3 of their last 4 and are off a 10-17 loss at Northwestern, which is actually a good thing, as the Hawkeyes are 34-13 ATS under Ferentz off a road loss. 

I also think the Gophers are one of the more overrated teams because of all the love everyone has for their new head coach P.J. Fleck. They are 4-3, but their wins have come against Buffalo, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee and Illinois. They lost to Maryland, who was playing a 3rd string QB and lost by 14 at Purdue. 

The defensive numbers for Minnesota are great, as they rank 22nd in the country giving up just 317 ypg. That's more a result of their easy schedule. They have already allowed 30+ in 3 of 4 Big Ten games and I think Iowa makes it 4 of 5. At the same time the Hawkeyes defense is built for an offense like the Gophers who want to try and run it down your throat.

You also can't discount the advantage Iowa has here in this basically being a night game at Kinnick with a 5:30 kickoff. The crowd is going to be electric in Iowa City and I think this could get ugly in a hurry. Take Iowa! 

3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ERROR  on Utah -

I really like the value here with the Utes laying just a field goal against the Ducks. If this game was played early in the season no way would I back Utah here, but Oregon's season took a major turn for the worse when starting quarterback Justin Herbert was lost for the season. 

Herbert last played in a 45-24 win over Cal. Since that game the Ducks have lost 3 straight and none of them have been close. They lost 10-33 at home to Washington State, 7-49 at Stanford and most recently 14-31 at UCLA. As you can see they had scored just 31 points in 3 games without Herbert and he's not returning for this one. 

The offense has to rely pretty much only on the run and that makes this a bad matchup against a Utah defense that is good against the run. The Utes have lost 3 straight, but they came against USC, Stanford and Arizona St. They will be all business in this one and the Ducks don't stand much of a chance. 

We also have a great system in play backing the Utes to cover in this one. Road teams who are off an upset loss as a favorite by 17 or more points and have winning record between 51% and 60% are 39-12 (77%) ATS going all the way back to 1992. Take Utah! 

3* NCAAF Afternoon ATS HEAVY HITTER  on Iowa State +

I'll take the Cyclones at home getting a touchdown against the Horned Frogs. Iowa State has come out of no where in the second year under head coach Matt Campbell to make the Top 25. Despite winning at Oklahoma and following it up with a 45-0 beatdown of Kansas and an impressive 31-13 win on the road at Texas Tech, this team continues to get no love. They aren't going to get against the No. 4 team in the country. That's perfect for Campbell and his staff, as it keeps the Cyclones' players from getting a big head. 

The offense has really come to life since Park left the team and Kempt took over. The defense also seems to have figured things out, as they have allowed a total of 20 points in their last 10 quarters of play. As much as TCU's coaches are going to tell their players not to overlook the Cyclones, I think they struggle to match the intensity of ISU. I think that allows the Cyclones to get out to an early lead and keep momentum on their side at home. 

Note that this is actually a good matchup for the Iowa State offense. TCU's strength defensively is stopping the run, but you can attack them through the air. The Horned Frogs are 56th vs the pass and will be facing the Cyclones 30th ranked passing attack. I actually think there's a decent chance ISU wins outright, but I'll take the touchdown for some added insurance. Take Iowa State! 

4* Penn St/Ohio St Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State -

The Buckeyes haven't lost two regular season games in the same season since Urban Meyer took over in Columbus. Everyone is on the No. 2 ranked Nittany Lions getting points. Close to 65% of the action has been on Penn State and it's by the biggest bet game on the board. I love being on the other side of these games and there's every reason to believe the Buckeyes will roll here. 

I know Ohio State got the invite to the playoffs over Penn State, but this team hasn't forgot about the loss they suffered in State College last year, where they blew a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter. Revenge isn't the only angle in favor of the Buckeyes. Ohio State is off a bye and more times than not when you give an elite coach like Meyer extra time his team is going to deliver. His teams are a ridiculous 24-8 ATS off a bye. 

The loss to Oklahoma doesn't loo good right now, but that served as a wake up call for this team, much like the 2014 loss to Virginia Tech early and they went on to run the table and win the title. Since that loss they haven't just been beating teams, they have been destroying them with 31 points being the closest any team has come to beating them. Ohio State lost just twice at home under Meyer. Take Ohio State! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total DESTROYER ON BYU OVER 

These aren't exactly two teams most would consider taking the OVER with. BYU hasn't scored more than 24 in a game all season and San Jose State's 26 last week at Hawaii was it's most since scoring 34 in their opener against Cal Poly. 

It's not so much the offenses that I'm focused on but the defenses. This is the perfect opponent for the Cougars to take out some of that frustration on offense. The Spartans have allowed at least 27 in each of their last 6 games, 4 times allowing 40+. 

At the same time, BYU's defense has allowed 30+ two straight and 4 of their last 5. I don't see it getting any better for either of these teams down the stretch. Last time out, both teams suffered their 7th loss of the season, which pretty much wraps up any hopes of making a bowl game. I look for a bit of a shootout with this one going well past the mark. Take the OVER! 

5* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Air Force +

I think we are seeing an inflated number with Colorado State, due to the fact that the Rams have won 4 straight and are 4-0 in MWC play. The thing is, they haven't really played anyone in the conference with the 4 wins coming against Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico. They only beat the Lobos by 3 and were very fortunate in a 44-42 win against the Wolf Pack the week before. 

I'm not saying Colorado State isn't a good team, I just don't think they should be laying double-digits against a team like Air Force. The Falcons are 3-4, but have a 4-point loss to San Diego State and 3-point defeat at Navy. They also lost at Michigan in non-conference play and were competitive against the Wolverines, losing 13-29. 

Falcons come in with the 30th ranked offense in the country, thanks to the 5th ranked rushing attack, which is averaging 341.4 ypg. Colorado State's defense isn't anything special. They are 92nd in total defense, giving 419.9  ypg and are allowing 4.5 yards/rush. Falcons should be able to not only put points on the board, but limit the Rams possessions and shorten the game, which all adds value to this line. Take Air Force! 

3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG on Cal +

I like the value here with the Golden Bears catching more than a field goal against the Buffaloes. I have really been impressed with the job head coach Justin Wilcox has done in his first year on the job. They knocked off UNC on the road and Ole Miss at home in non-conference play and most remember the 37-3 beatdown they put on Washington State. They are 4-4 with 3 losses to Washington, USC and Oregon, as well as a double-overtime loss last week to Arizona 44-45. 

I expect this team to pick themselves up and bounce back in a big way against the Buffaloes. Colorado shocked everyone and won the Pac-12 South a year ago. Things haven't been going so well in 2017, as the Buffaloes are just 4-4 with their only win in their last 5 being a 36-33 win over Oregon State. Last week they were shutout 28-0 at Washington State.

The key here is the Buffaloes came into this season expecting to replicate last year's success. It can be really hard for a team to keep fighting once their goals have been crushed. Cal is also 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, while Colorado is a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after a contest in which the combine score was 29 or less. Take California! 

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Cal UNDER

I expect a much lower-scoring game than what the books are calling for with this total. Cal is coming off a 44-45 loss to Arizona, which had a combined 99 points, but only 62 of those came in regulation. The week before they held Washington State's potent attack to just 3 points. Colorado was just shutout at Washington State and have now scored 23 or fewer in half of their games. 

I just think we have two defenses that have underachieved going up against a couple of limited offenses. Both teams are coming off a loss and still need two wins to become bowl eligible, so the intensity should be there on the defensive side. I got a little more concern with Colorado mentally, but being at home will help them. 

When Cal is coming off a high-scoring game like we have here, history struggling recommends playing the UNDER, as it's 33-18 in their last 51 after a contest that finished OVER the total set by the books. UNDER is also 16-5 in Colorado's last 21 games off a loss by more than 20 points and a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 after a game where they scored fewer than 20 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Virginia +

I really like the value here with the Cavaliers as a dog against the Panthers, as I actually think they should be favored here. Virginia comes in off an ugly 10-41 loss at home to BC, which snapped a 4-game winning streak. I just think that was a classic case where a team that had been playing with a chip on their shoulder started to enjoy the taste of success a little too much. 

Virginia linebacker after the game was quoted saying "Humbles you. We were riding really high, probably a little bit too high, so you get humbled and come back on Monday ready to work." I expect the Cavaliers to do just that. 

As for Pittsburgh, they come in off a surprising 24-17 win at Duke as a 9.5-point dog. I just think that was another case where a team (Blue Devils) didn't give their opponent the respect they deserved. Pitt also had a couple of huge plays that are hard to replicate. Both coming from Darrin Hall, who had 254 yards on the game. He had a 79 and 92 yard TD run.

Outside of those two big plays the offense hadn't done much. It was shocking that Duke let them run for so many yards, as Pitt is down their starting QB and the backup hasn't show a whole to get excited about. The Panthers struggle to keep pace and lose at home. Take Virginia! 

3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Michigan -

I got no problem laying this big number here with the Wolverines at home against Rutgers. I can assure you it wasn't a fun week of practice for Michigan, as Jim Harbaugh doesn't take losing lightly. In what might be a letdown spot for some teams off such a big game, I think the Wolverines come out looking to make a statement and there's nothing the Scarlet Knights can do to stop them. 

Rutgers has won two straight, but one was against Illinois and last week they beat Purdue in a game they had no business winning. The Scarlet Knights were outgained by more than 250 yards and had just 8 first downs for the game. 

Just about a month ago Rutgers lost 56-0 at home to Ohio State. They couldn't do anything against that Buckeye defense and it won't be any easier against the Wolverines stop unit. The Scarlet Knights defense might be able to get a couple stops early, but that's no sure thing and they will wear down at some point. I think Michigan scores 35+ here and keeps Rutgers to single digits. Take Michigan! 

3* NCAAF Early Bird MONEYMAKER  on Buffalo +

I'm well aware the Bulls could be down to 3rd straight QB Kyle Vantrease. I still think Buffalo is going to be able to keep it close and like their chances of winning this game outright.

The Bulls are one of the most improved and underrated teams in the country, which is evident by their 6-2 record against the spread. They are just 3-5 overall, but that's already an improvement over the 2-wins they won last year. The turnaround comes in year 3 under head coach Lance Leipold, which is when we typically see good coaches start to turn around a program. 

Akron has been playing better of late, but I think their offense really struggles in this one. The Zips are only scoring 22.9 ppg and will face a stingy Buffalo defense that has allowed 24 or less in 6 of their 8 games. The Zips defense is only giving up 25.1 ppg, but a big part of that is who they have played, as their opponents are only averaging 25.7 ppg. I think the Bulls can generate enough here for the cover.

Akron is 4-1 ATS in their last 5, which is important to note, as the Zips are just 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they took the field after a 4-1 ATS stretch. Bulls are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss, 4-1 ATS last 5 road games and 4-1 ATS off a SU loss. Take Buffalo! 

3* Florida St/BC Friday Night NO BRAINER on Florida State -

As heartbreaking as last week's loss at home was to Louisville, I think the value here is clearly with Florida State laying less than a touchdown against the Eagles. The Seminoles might be just 2-4, but their 4 losses are against Alabama, NC State, Miami and Louisville. They could have just as easily won each of the last two against the Canes and Cardinals.

I think this team is well past the emotional letdown of their season being lost. That pretty much happened in the opener when starting quarterback Deondre Francois was lost for the season. They went with true freshmen James Blackman. He's had his ups and downs, but appears to be better with each week. His fumble cost the team against Louisville and I think he comes out with a chip on his shoulder in this one. 

BC just crushed a red-hot Virginia team 41-10 on the road and the week before upset Louisville on the road. This is still the same team that struggled against the top teams, losing by at least 13 in all 4 defeats. It's also a lot different going from getting zero respect to all the sudden people are expecting you to win. The Seminoles remind everyone of the talent they have and win here going away. Take Florida State!

3* NCAAF Late Night Bailout BLOWOUT on Stanford OVER

The books have set the bar way to low for Thursday's Pac-12 action that has Stanford visiting Oregon State. I think the public perception here is that the Cardinal are going to just go into Corvallis and have their way with the Beavers. While I think Stanford will be able to put some points on the board, I think their defense will struggle in this spot. 

Oregon State comes in just 1-6 and are ranked 113th out of 130 FBS teams in scoring at 21.3 ppg. That's going to make it tough on Stanford to take them seriously, especially with a road game at Washington State looming next week. The thing is the Cardinal defense isn't great, they 98th against the run (195.4 ypg) and 68th vs the pass (220.6 ypg). 

Oregon State just played their first game after Gary Anderson stepped down and the offense took on a new life against Colorado. The Beavers piled on 280 rushing yards on 46 attempts (6.1 yards/carry) and senior Darell Garretson had his best game by a long shot with 289 yards on 20 of 37 passing. That performance will have them playing with a lot of confidence tonight and I expect a number of big plays to push this final score up closer to 70. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Eastern Michigan OVER 

These two teams combined for 55 points a season ago and 70 the year before that. I know we have two good defensive teams, but let's not completely discount the offensive side of the ball. I think we get more than enough scoring here to push this past the small number set by the books. 

Northern Illinois' offense is coming in with a ton of confidence after putting up 48 points and more than 500 total yards last week at Bowling Green. Eastern Michigan scored just 17, but had nearly 460 yards of total offense (done in by 3 turnovers). With both defenses playing on short rest and the Huskies potentially not giving the Eagles their full attention with Toledo on deck, I think we could be closer to 60 than 50. 

OVER is 30-16 in Eastern Michigan's last 46 road games after 2 or more consecutive losses and 10-2 in their last 12 road games against an opponent that's outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Take the OVER! 

5* NCAAF Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play Colorado OVER 

I think we are getting great value here on the total at just 52 points. Forget what happened last week with Washington State. When the Cougars fail to show up for a game they do it in style. Just look at last year's bowl game against Minnesota and 17-45 loss to rival Washington. While the loss to Cal hurts, they still are in great shape to win the North and play in the Pac-12 title game. I expect this team to rebound and to do so in a big way. 

The Cougars have scored 45+ 3 times already this season and had 30+ in every other game prior to the letdown to the Bears. Cal's not an easy place to play and there's no reason to think they don't show up at home against a Colorado defense that has allowed 33 to Oregon State and 45 to Arizona in their last two games. 

I also think we get plenty of help from the Buffaloes on the scoreboard. This Washington State defense is good but not great. Colorado's offense is playing with a ton of confidence and I think they are going to keep pace with Washington St and make this a game into the 2nd half. 

OVER is 20-4 in Colorado's last 24 road games after 2 straight games with 1 or fewer turnovers and 5-1-1 in Washington State's last 7 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Late Night Bailout BLOWOUT  on Wyoming +

I like the value here with the Cowboys catching two touchdowns against Boise State, who I think is seeing an inflated line. The Broncos covered in a 24-7 win at BYU in a prime time week day game two weeks ago and are off a 31-14 beatdown of No. 19 San Diego State on the road as a underdog. Boise should be favored here, but not by this much. 

There was a lot of hype on this Wyoming team coming into the season because their starting QB Josh Allen was getting talked about as a 1st round pick in next year's NFL draft. That went away quickly with three straight non-covers, which included a 21 point loss at Iowa and 36 point embarrassing loss at home to Oregon as a mere 13.5-point dog. That was the perfect time to buy low and they have covered 3 straight. The public loves to back Boise and won't jump back on them   here. 

Wyoming beat Boise State 30-28 last year as a 14.5-point home dog. Allen did a lot of the damage, throwing for 274 yards and 3 scores. I think he has another big game here. This Boise defense has been exposed a couple times, giving up 47 to Washington State and 42 at home to Virginia. I think the Broncos pull this one out, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Cowboys won outright again. Take Wyoming! 

4* NCAAF Late Night Bookie DESTROYER Wyoming OVER

This is about as low of a total as you are going to see in college and I just don't think it's warranted. I know Boise State's defense has held BYU to 7 points and San Diego St to 14 in their last two games, but those aren't exactly high-powered offenses. The game prior to that they gave up 42 at home to Virginia. Wyoming's offense struggled early in the year, but have scored 28 in each of their last 3 games and put up 30 in a win over Boise State last year. 

Cowboys quarterback Josh Allen, who is an NFL prospect, threw for 274 yards and 3 scores last year against the Broncos. He's thrown the ball well in each of his last two games and I think he has another big game here. 

Wyoming's defense has good numbers but have struggled against the better offenses they have faced. They haven't held Boise State under 28 points since 2007 and if the Broncos hit 28, we only need 16 from Wyoming to eclipse this mark. I think we get more than that from Wyoming, who I could see winning this game outright. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF Prime Time ATS ANNIHILATOR  on Arizona -

Most will be quick to take Cal at home here after they just dominated the No. 5 team in the country in Washington State 37-3. Arizona wasn't even a home favorite against Houston, Utah or UCLA. I think line tells you everything and there's every reason to like Arizona in this one. 

The Wildcats have found something special in sophomore quarterback Khalil Tate, who has 557 rushing yards in his last two games. He doesn't throw a ton, but has been accurate when he has to make a play through the air, completing 74.3% of his attempts. I just don't see Cal being able to slow him down enough to keep this one close. 

While Cal's offense was able to put up 37 last week, they clearly were up against a Wash St team that didn't come to play. Two weeks ago they managed just 7 points and 93 totals yards against Washington. Arizona's not an elite defense, but are capable of keeping the Golden Bears offense in check. Even with the big game against the Cougars, Cal still ranks 89th in scoring (26.1 ppg) and 109th in total offense (348 ypg). I think the Wildcats win this one going away. Take Arizona! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Arizona Under 

This one has been set too high here by the books. I just don't see this being a shootout. Cal's offense was able to put up 37 last week, but they clearly were up against a Wash St team that didn't come to play. Two weeks ago they managed just 7 points and 93 totals yards against Washington. Arizona's not an elite defense, but are capable of keeping the Golden Bears offense in check. Even with the big game against the Cougars, Cal still ranks 89th in scoring (26.1 ppg) and 109th in total offense (348 ypg).

All the talk here is about the Wildcats new quarterback in Khalil Tate, who has rushed for 557 yards in the last two games. I think he's a good find for Arizona, but that was against Colorado, who ranks 99th in run defense and UCLA, who ranks 129th. Cal's defense isn't as good as it was last week against the Cougars, but it's going to put up better numbers at home and are better built to stop the run than the pass. I think they at least make Tate and the Arizona offense work for their points, which is going to eat up the clock with how much they like to run the ball. That should have this finishing closer to 50 than 60. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Vegas HEAVY HITTER on Michigan +

This is just too good to pass up with the Wolverines catching double-digits against any team in the Big Ten. Michigan hasn't looked good the past couple of weeks and people aren't as high on this team after they lost at home to Michigan State. I still think the Wolverines are one of the best teams in the country. Jim Harbaugh is going to feed his players on how little respect they are getting and will come out with a chip on their shoulder. 

I also think Harbaugh and Michigan are coming in looking to make a statement against one of the favorites to win the Heisman in Saquon Barkley. Last year they held him to 136 total yards with just 3.9 yards/carry on the ground and Penn State managed just 10 points. Michigan comes in leading the country in total defense, while ranking 6th against the run (85.8 ypg) and 3rd against the pass (138.0 ypg). I think they are going to keep the Nittany Lions in check. 

I know Michigan's offense has been bad, but I'm confident Harbaugh is holding back a few wrinkles for this one. I think the Wolverines will play well offensively and wouldn't be shocked if they did enough to win this game outright. Take Michigan! 

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss +

I really like the value we are getting here with Ole Miss at home. The Rebels have been an afterthought in the SEC West, largely because they aren't eligible for postseason play. They also have some ugly losses mixed in there, losing by 20+ to Cal, Alabama and Auburn. All of those were on the road. This team showed up in their SEC home opener last week, crushing a good Vanderbilt team 57-35. I think we get another great effort here by the Rebels and talent wise Ole Miss is every bit as good as LSU. They also are playing with revenge from an embarrassing 21-38 loss to at LSU last year. 

The Tigers looked lost early against Auburn last week, falling behind 20-0 before rallying to win 27-23. That was a big game at home against a Top 10 opponent. I think the Tigers put everything they had into that one and are going to have a hard time showing up for this game. 

This is still the same LSU team that lost to Troy at home and by 30 at Mississippi State. Ole Miss has the skill players in the passing game to attack this Tigers defense. I look for the Rebels to score early and often this one. Should have no problem keeping this within a touchdown and wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. Take Ole Miss! 

3* NCAAF Undervalued UNDERDOG  on Tulane +

It's been smooth sailing for South Florida in 2017, as the Bulls have opened up the season 6-0 and have won each of their last 3 by 30-points. No surprise as this team has played about as easy of a schedule as you will find. A lot of teams would be 6-0 if they started out against San Jose St, Stony Brook, Illinois, Temple, East Carolina and Cincinnati. Not a single one of those FBS teams they have faced own a winning record and Temple is the best of the bunch at 3-4. 

Now the Bulls have to hit the road and play a much-improved Tulane team in what's going to be their biggest game of the season outside of a bowl game if they get there. The Green Wave have made big strides in year two under Willie Fritz. They are going to play keep away from the Bulls and use that 10th ranked rushing attack to grind out possessions, which is going to where down the USF defense and keep the Bulls' offense out of sync. I think USF does enough to stay unbeaten, but I think this one comes right down to the wire. Take Tulane! 

4* NCAAF Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Southern Miss +

Louisiana Tech has had trouble winning close games this year. The most recent was a 22-23 defeat at UAB, who didn't play football a season ago. I just don't think they are very good this year. However, a lot of people still trust them based on the fact they have won 9 games each of the last 3 seasons.

I think people will be drawn to La Tech laying a small number at home off a bye, but I'm taking the points with the Golden Eagles, who have won 2 straight and 4 of 5. The most recent a 24-0 beatdown of UTEP, where they outgained the Miners 423 to 147 with a 20 to 6 edge in first downs. 

Coming off a bye isn't always a good thing. The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a bye. The Golden Eagles are 28-13 ATS in their last 41 road games after a win by 21 or more points and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 overall. 

We also have a strong system favoring a play on Southern Miss based off the spot we find them. Road underdogs who are excellent offensive teams (440+ ypg) vs a good offensive team (390 to 440 ypg) are 30-8 ATS over the last 10 seasons after a game in which they outgained their opponent by 225 or more total yards. Take Southern Miss! 

4* NCAAF Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Minnesota -

Good spot here to jump back on the Golden Gopher bandwagon. Minnesota's stock has taken a huge hit as they have followed up their 3-0 start with 3 straight losses. Lucky for them they get a chance to get right against the worst team in the conference in Illinois, who just lost at home to Rutgers by double-digits. They also have a 29-point defeat to Iowa and 22-point loss at home to Nebraska on the resume.

Key here is that we can count on a big time effort from the Gophers, as they can't afford to overlook Illinois after losing 3 straight. That should be all it takes for them to win here by at least 2 touchdowns.  It's been a good spot to back Minnesota, as they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a conference loss. Illinois on the other hand is 11-27 ATS in their last 38 off a SU loss and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 on the road. Take Minnesota! 

3* NCAAF Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Michigan State -

I like the value here with the Spartans laying just a touchdown at home against the Hoosiers. Michigan State has started out 5-1, but I don't feel they get the respect they deserve due to the fact that they lost at home to Notre Dame by a final of 18-38. That was a very misleading score, as the Spartans actually outgained the Irish by 141 yards. They bounced back with an impressive win at home over Iowa and followed it up with road wins over both Michigan and Minnesota.

I see no reason why they won't be able to take care of business against Indiana, who I think is still getting a lot of love for how they played Ohio State for 3 quarters at home in their opener. This team lost by 31 at Penn State last time they were away from home.

Even with that loss and non-cover against Notre Dame, the Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home and own a perfect 6-0 ATS record at home in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 years. Indiana hasn't covered in 4 straight conference games and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 trips to East Lansing. Take Michigan State! 

4* NCAAF No Limit TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Michigan State OVER

I like the value here with this low total and these two Big Ten teams going over the mark set by the books. It wouldn't be anything new, as the OVER is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings with a perfect 4-0 mark the last 4 times they have faced off in East Lansing. 

Michigan State should have no problem moving the chains and finishing off drives as they have the 40th ranked rushing attack at 192.2 ypg and will be up against a Indiana defense that ranks 79th against the run, giving up just over 170 ypg. The offensive numbers for the Spartans aren't great, but that has a lot to do with the fact that half of their games have been against Notre Dame, Michigan and Iowa. 

Indiana's offense should be able to provide enough here to push this over the mark. The Hoosiers put up 20 on Michigan last week and 21 against Ohio State. I think they can get to at least 20 here and the Spartans should be able to do the rest. 

OVER is 35-15 in Michigan State's last 50 games when they enter having covered the spread in at least 4 of their last 6 and 40-16 in Indiana's last 56 games when listed as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. Take the OVER! 

3* NCAAF NO Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech -

This might seem like a big number for the Hokies to be laying, but I really like what I have seen from this Virginia Tech team and feel they are flying a bit under the radar after failing to cover their last two. The thing is they were getting a little too much love against Clemson at home and got rolled. They were then a huge letdown spot at BC and won by 13 as a 14-pt favorite. 

UNC has covered one spread all season and that was at Old Dominion. The Tar Heels are just 1-6 overall and have lost by double-digits in 3 of their last 4 games. UNC ranks 114th in total defense and 99th in total offense. The Hokies are 23rd in total defense and 26th in total offense. This is a complete mismatch and even more so with Va Tech off a bye. 

Great system in play that backs a fade of the Tar Heels in this one. Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that have failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and have won 25% or less of their games are a mere 9-34 (21%) ATS vs a team with a winning record. Take Virginia Tech. 

5* NCAAF Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Utah OVER

I think we are seeing a much lower total than what we should, due to the fact that Arizona State is coming off a 13-7 win at home over Washington. Everything went right for the Sun Devils in that one and I'm banking on their defense returning to form and giving up a bunch of points. Prior to holding the Huskies to 7-points, Arizona State had allowed at least 30 points in each of their previous 11 games. 

It's still not official, but Utah's offense could be getting a big boost with the return of starting quarterback Tyler Huntley. If he plays this thing should fly over the mark, but I still think we get to 57 rather easily if he doesn't 

Both of these defenses are in huge letdown spots. While the Sun Devils were laying it all on the line against USC, the Utes were at USC and suffered a crushing 27-28 loss. These two teams combined for 75 points a year ago and that was with an identical total of 56 points. 

Utah's defense strength has been stopping the run under Whittingham, but they can be attacked through the air. In fact, the OVER is 12-4 the last 16 times the Utes have faced a poor rushing team that is averaging 3.25 or less yards/carry and these games have averaged over 62 points. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa

Forget the spread in this one and just take the Hawkeyes to win on the money line. Northwestern is fresh off an impressive 37-21 win at Maryland and I think it has the Wildcats overrated. That's a Maryland team that is down to their 3rd string quarterback and a huge drop-off in terms of talent from the first two guys. The only other wins are against Bowling Green, who is awful and Nevada, who is currently 1-6 and they trailed the Wolf Pack by 10 in the 2nd half. 

Iowa on the other hand is a team that I think is flying a bit under the radar, as they are a few breaks away from being undefeated. They gave up a touchdown on the final play of the game in a 19-21 home loss to Penn State and the very next week gave Michigan State all they could handle in a 10-17 loss (fumbled twice in MSU territory). 

Hawkeyes have a big edge here in terms of scheduling, as they have had a full two weeks to prepare for this one coming off their bye. Iowa also matches up well with this Northwestern team. The Wildcats offense relies on their ability to run the ball and that plays into the strength of Iowa's physical front 7. Hawkeyes also have one of the top offensive lines, which is going to open up holes in the running game and allow quarterback Nathan Stanley to attack a Northwestern secondary that ranks 102nd in the country, giving up 250 ypg. 

Wildcats are just 9-22 ATS under Fitzgerald at home against a team with a winning record and only 4-15 ATS at home against teams that are outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Iowa is also a road covering machine, as they are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games. Take Iowa! 

3* NCAAF Early Bird Total DOMINATOR on Louisville/Florida St UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with this total in Saturday's ACC matchup between Louisville and Florida State. These totals with the Cardinals have been inflated all season and I think it's definitely inflated here after they combined for 87 points last week against Boston College. The number here is also high due to the fact these two teams combined for 83 last year with Louisville accounting for 63. 

I just don't see that kind of offensive output this time around. While Lamar Jackson has great numbers, this Louisville team isn't as good as it was last year. Defenses have a much better game-plan for Jackson and we have seen him struggle against the two best defenses he's faced in Clemson and NC State. I put this FSU defense right up there with those two. 

At the same time, this isn't just another game for the Seminoles defense. Don't think for a second they have forgot about what Jackson and company did to them last year. The 63 points that Louisville scored was the most points ever allowed by a Florida State team. This defense has had this came circled and I expect them to play their best game of the season. 

On the other side of this, Florida State's offense continues to struggle without starting quarterback Deondre Francois. They had 425 total yards last week against Duke and only managed 17 points. They are 122nd in the country at 18.2 ppg. I know the Louisville defense isn't playing very well, but I think they can keep this offense from going off and that should have us well below the mark here set by the books. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Friday Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on New Mexico +

I like the value here with the Lobos catching a touchdown at home against Colorado State. I believe we are getting value because of the fact that New Mexico is fresh off a 38-0 loss at Fresno State in a game they were favored to win (-2.5). As well as the fact that the Rams enter having won 3 straight and beat the Lobos by 18 in last year's meeting. Keep in mind that Colorado State was just a 6.5-point home favorite in that meeting last year. When you factor in the 3.5 points for home field and this line should be closer to 3 than 7. 

New Mexico simply laid an egg last week. I actually like the fact that they are coming off an embarrassing loss, as we can count on them coming into this game with a chip on their shoulder. They also are going to benefit from playing at home under the lights. At the same time we could see Colorado State not take them as seriously as they should. 

I also think people are quick to overlook that the Rams barely snuck out a 44-42 win at home last week against Nevada as a massive 24-point favorite. It puts Colorado State in a historically bad spot, as they are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games off a win by 6 points or less. 

New Mexico is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring less than 20 points. They also have fared well against high-scoring teams like Colorado State, as they are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games vs a team that's averaging 31+ points/game. Take New Mexico! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Middle Tennessee State +

I like the value we are getting here with the Blue Raiders catching a field goal at home against Marshall. The betting public is all over the Thundering Herd because of the fact that Middle Tennessee is without starting quarterback Brent Stockhill. The books know this and have certainly inflated this line in the Blue Raiders favor. 

The thing is, Middle Tennessee does have a capable backup in sophomore John Urzua, who has flashed some decent potential, throwing for 359 yards against FAU. Marshal comes in with some great defensive numbers and actually rank 25th in the country in total defense, giving up just 321.7 ypg. I'm not saying they aren't good, they just aren't as good as that ranking would suggest. The Thundering Herd have 5 games against Miami (OH), Kent St, Cincinnati, Charlotte and Old Dominion. The only decent offense they have faced is NC State and they gave up 37 points and nearly 500 yards of offense. 

The other thing with Marshall's easy schedule is the concerns that they only rank 93rd in total offense. That's extremely low given the talent they have faced. Middle Tennessee's defense ranks 40th and has been tested by the likes of Vanderbilt, Syracuse and Minnesota. I think Marshall struggles to get the offense going on the road in what's going to be a hostile environment under the lights. Take Middle Tennessee! 

3* Memphis/Houston Thurs Night ATS NO BRAINER on Memphis +

I like the value here with the Tigers catching points against the Cougars. I really think Memphis is the much better team and should be favored in this contest.

I had hight hopes for this Houston team coming into the season,  even after losing Herman. A big reason for that was they added in Texas A&M transfer Kyle Allen, who was the number recruit in his class at QB out of high school. Allen was a complete bust and quickly lost his job. Backup Kyle Postma hasn't been a whole lot better, as he's thrown 5 picks. 

Clearly there's something wrong with the offense if they are only scoring 17 points against Tulsa, who they lost to 17-45. The same Tulsa team that had started 1-5 and just lost 28-62 to Navy. Overall the Cougars are averaging just 25.5 ppg, which more than 10 points less than last year's average of 35.8. 

Memphis' offense ranks 14th in the country behind one the nation's most potent passing attacks that's headlined by quarterback Riley Ferguson (1,814 yards, 19-5 TD-INT ratio) and wide out Anthony Miller (45 catches, 606 yards, 9 TDs). The Tigers defense is also much better than the numbers, as their opponents in 2017 are averaging 472 ypg. They have simply faced some dynamic offenses. I'll take the team that's going to have the much easier time moving the ball in this one. Take Memphis! 

3* Lafayette/Arkansas St Sun Belt DESTROYER on Lafayette UNDER

These weekday Sun Belt games are much lower-scoring than the overall numbers would suggest. So while we have two defenses that are near the bottom of the country in yards allowed, I expect this to go under the high total that's been set here. One of the reasons the defensive numbers are so bad for these teams is the big programs they play in non-conference. Lafayette played both Tulsa and Texas A&M and Arkansas State had to face both Nebraska and SMU. 

A prime example of how much lower-scoring these games can be is last week's contest with Lafayette against Texas State. The total was 55 and getting pounded by the public, yet the game finished with a final score of 24-7. The previous week the Ragin' Cajuns scored just 21 against Idaho. Arkansas State has allowed just 25 and 17 points in their two conference games. 

UNDER is 10-2-1 in Lafayette's last 13 conference games and 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. UNDER is also 11-4-1 in Arkansas State's last 16 overall, and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 20 points. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Stanford OVER

The books have completely missed the mark here in Saturday's Pac-12 showdown between Stanford and Oregon. I believe the reason this total is so low is the fact that the Ducks offense was a no show last week against Washington State without starting quarterback Justin Herbert. Oregon managed just 10 points and 277 total yards. 

Not a big surprise when you look back at it. The Cougars have an elite defense and took full advantage of the fact that Oregon had to start a true freshman in Braxton Burmeister. Last week backup Tayler Alie wasn't available, but he's good to go and wouldn't be shocked if he started. Either way, I expect Burmeister to play well if he gets the nod. 

That's because the Ducks will have a much easier time moving the ball on the ground against a struggling Stanford defense. This is not your typical Cardinal stop unit, as they come in ranked 91st against the run (182.0 ypg) and 101st against the pass (251.8 ypg). Oregon still ranks 19th in the country in rushing at 239.3 ypg and had scored at least 35 in each of their previous 5 games. 

It won't just be the Ducks scoring early and often, Stanford's offense has come to life with sophomore K.J. Costello getting more reps at quarterback. They also have the nation's best running back in Bryce Love, who comes into this game with 1,240 rushing yards, which is almost 250 more yards than the next best. While Oregon's defense is improved from last year, they have allowed 30+ to the likes of Nebraska, Arizona State and Washington State. Expect Stanford to do the same. 

OVER is 10-1-1 in Oregon's last 11 following a double-digit loss at home and 45-19-2 in their last 66 off a loss by more than 20. OVER is also 5-0 in the Cardinal's last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Vegas Insider GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida -

I like the value here with needing the Gators to simply win by more than a field goal at home against Texas A&M. Florida came up on the short end of the stick in last week's 16-17 home loss to LSU, where the difference in the game was a missed extra point. I expect a pissed off Gators team to take the field with the mentality of not dropping another game in the swamp. Note that loss to the Tigers was only the second home defeat Florida has suffered under Jim McElwain. 

While the Gators will be chomping at the bit to take the field in this one, Texas A&M enters this game in a prime letdown spot, as they just put everything they had into last week's home game against Alabama. Note it's not been good for the Aggies in their next conference game after playing Alabama the last two years. In 2015 they lost 23-3 at Ole Miss as a mere 5-point dog and last year lost 28-35 at Mississippi State as a 10-point favorite. 

On top of that, Texas A&M has had trouble rebounding from any loss when it comes to covering the spread, as they are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss. They are also just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 vs a team with a winning record and only 18-46-1 ATS in their last 65 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Take Florida! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on North Texas UNDER

The books have set the total too high for Saturday's C-USA showdown between UTSA and North Texas. The Roadrunners joined C-USA in 2013 and these two teams have been in the same division. Each of the previous 4 meetings have not seen more than 61 points and I expect that trend to continue.

This is a big time game for the Mean Green, as most have labeled UTSA as the team to beat in the West. I expect a big time effort here from North Texas at home in this spot, especially with the game being played under the lights. 

The Roadrunners come in averaging 35.2 ppg, but most of the damage came against a couple of bad teams. They scored 51 on Southern and 44 against Texas State. They only managed 17 in their opener against Baylor and just 29 last week against Southern Miss. I think North Texas can keep them around that 30 point mark. 

As for UTSA's defense, it's been really good to start the season. In fact, the Roadrunners come in ranked 9th in the nation, giving up just 270 ypg and a mere 4.8 yards/play. It's by far the best defense the Mean Green have seen outside of Iowa, who they only managed 14 points against. 

UNDER is 15-5 in North Texas' last 20 games off a conference win by 10 or more and 10-1 in their last 11 when they come in having won two straight against conference opponents. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Tulane

I like the value here with Tulane laying less than two touchdowns on the road against FIU. The Green Wave are off to a strong 3-2 start to the season with the only losses coming at Oklahoma and by just 2-points on the road to Navy. Tulane is 4-1 ATS with the only non-cover against the Sooners where they were simply outmatched. 

While the Green Wave have been a very profitable bet so far, I still think this team is flying under the radar after going just 4-8 last year. The thing is, this is one of the most improved teams in the country in year two under head coach Willie Fritz and I fully expect them to continue to be a strong bet the remainder of this season. 

FIU is not a good football team and like Tulane last year, are in the midst of a major rebuilding phase in the first year under head coach Butch Davis, who like Fritz has done, will get this program turned around. Just not this year.

The Golden Panthers come with an identical 3-2 record to the Green Wave, but the three wins have all come against bad teams and they struggled to win all 3. FIU held on for a 17-10 win at home over FCS foe Alcorn State, edged out a horrible Rice team 13-7 and barely squeaked by Charlotte 30-29. The Panthers are just 1-4 ATS and will struggle to keep this close. 

FIU's defense is no match for Tulane's elite rushing attack. The Green Wave come in 8th in the country averaging 293 ypg. FIU is giving up 170 ypg and nearly 4.5 yards/carry. The Panthers defense will be on the field a ton and simply don't have the offense to keep pace. Take Tulane! 

4* NCAAF Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma UNDER

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total in Saturday's Red River Rivalry between Oklahoma and Texas. I just feel the total here has been inflated given the fact that Oklahoma has allowed 41 to Baylor and 38 to ISU in their last two games, as well as the fact that Texas is coming off a high-scoring game against Kansas State. Not to mention these two combined for 85 in last year's matchup. 

Each of the previous 3 meetings in the series all had a combined score of 57 or less and I think that's a lot closer to what the total should be in this one. I know these two teams have some big time weapons on offense, but a game of this magnitude almost always sides to the defense. Despite the poor showings of late, Oklahoma comes in ranked 44th in total defense and Texas is sitting at 42nd. 

This is still the same Sooners defense that held Ohio State's potent offense to just 16 points earlier this season. I think they went in with big heads against the Bears and Cyclones, but will be 100% locked in here, especially off that unthinkable upset loss at home to ISU. Keep Texas' offense wasn't great in their previous two games, scoring just 24 against USC and a mere 17 on the road against Iowa State. 

UNDER is 11-3 in the Longhorns last 14 when coming into a game off a win and a perfect 7-0 the last two years after playing their previous two against conference opponents. UNDER is also 21-7 in Texas' last 28 against a team with a winning record and 5-1 in the Sooners last 6 games played on a neutral field. Take the UNDER! 

5* No Limit SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU

I really like the value here with LSU catching a touchdown on their home field against Auburn. LSU bounced back in a big way from that ugly loss at home to Troy with a 17-16 win on the road over Florida, who came in at 3-0 in SEC play. LSU desperately needed that win to get their confidence back up and I look for them to carry over that momentum with their best effort of the season at home against a Top 10 opponent. 

Auburn comes in having won 4 straight with three straight blowout wins inside conference play. The thing is, one was on the road against a bad Missouri team and the other two were at home against Mississippi State and Ole Miss, who are both bottom tier teams in the SEC. I believe it has Auburn way overvalued here on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the country. 

I know the Auburn defense has been playing lights out, but don't underestimate this LSU defense. They come in ranked 18th in the country, giving up just 309 ypg. The closest defense Auburn has seen this year is Clemson and they managed just 6 points and a mere 117 yards of total offense. LSU isn't on Clemson's level, but that's a good sign that they can keep Auburn in check. Keep in mind points become that much more valuable in a lower scoring game. 

LSU is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in the month of October, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous contest and the home team is a dominant 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in the series. Take LSU! 

3* Wash St/Cal Friday Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cal

I like the value here with Cal as a two touchdown home dog against the Cougars. Washington State comes into this one off two huge wins. First they knocked off USC at home on a Friday night prime time game and they followed it up by going on the road at night and beating Oregon. 

I think it will be tough for them to bring that same intensity on the road a second straight week against a Cal team that has lost 3 straight and fresh off an ugly 38-7 loss at Washington, where they were outgained by 284 yards.

I wasn't surprised to see the Bears struggle in that game against a very good Washington team, as they had nothing left in the tank after playing Ole Miss, USC and Oregon the previous 3 games. They won't have any problem here getting up for a home night game against a Top 10 opponent. Cal only lost to USC at home by 10 earlier this season and while I don't see them winning this one, I think they will be able to keep it close the whole way. 

Washington State comes in having covered 4 straight, but are just 16-33 ATS in their last 49 games when they come in having covered 4 out of their last 5. Cougars head coach Mike Leach is also just 4-13 ATS in his coaching career when his team is playing on the road and riding a 3 game or more winning streak. Take Cal! 

4* S Alabama/Troy Sun Belt VEGAS INSIDER on South Alabama +

I like the value here with the Jaguars in this in-state rivalry matchup against Troy. This line has been inflated big time on the Trojans, as they come in off arguably their biggest win in program history in a 24-21 outright win at LSU as a 20.5-point underdog. That puts Troy into a big time letdown spot here and that should be more than enough for South Alabama to keep this within the number. 

Keep in mind that Troy had started out 0-4 ATS before they covered against LSU, as they came into this season getting a ton of respect from the books after last year's 10-win season. The books know the public will jump right back on them after a big win, so we are getting the best price here on South Alabama. 

The numbers on both sides of the ball don't look great for the Jaguars, but they have played a brutal schedule to this point with games against Ole Miss, Oklahoma State and Louisiana Tech. 

South Alabama head coach Joey Jones has a history of getting his team to deliver against the spread in this spot, as the Jaguars are 13-4 ATS in road game in the first half of the season since he took over at South Alabama. 

Troy on the other hand hasn't performed well against bad teams, as they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take South Alabama! 

5* NCAAF No Limit 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Arizona +

I really like the value here with the Wildcats catching a full touchdown on the road against the Buffaloes. I actually think this line should be a lot closer to a field goal and I'm fully expecting Arizona to win this game outright. 

The Wildcats lost 24-30 to Utah back on 9/22 in a game they had to feel like they should have won. Arizona outgained the Utes 448 to 341. The difference in the game being they turned it over 5 times. That loss couldn't have set well over their bye week and I expect a well rested and focused Wildcats team in this one.

The key here is they are catching Colorado at the perfect time. The Buffaloes are coming off two huge games against Washington and UCLA. I wouldn't be shocked if they came out a bit flat here, as won by 25 at Arizona last year. 

I think the key matchup here will be Arizona's defense against an underachieving Colorado offense. To only score 23 points against that Bruins defense is concerning. They also had just 10 points against Washington at home and only 17 against Colorado State. Arizona's defense is only giving up 22.3 ppg and are much improved on that side of the ball.

The Wildcats offense is averaging over 40 ppg and is 25th in total offense at 479 ypg. Arizona should have the much easier time moving the ball here and that makes them an easy play at this line. Take Arizona! 

3* NCAAF Prime Time ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Houston -

I think we are getting  a great price here with the Cougars laying less than a touchdown against the Mustangs. Keep in mind Houston was a 23-point road favorite over SMU a year ago. The Mustangs won that game and I can assure you the 15 returning starters and other lettermen for Houston haven't forgot about the feeling of losing that game. 

The Cougars aren't going to let the Mustangs upset them two years in a row and I actually think they win this game going away. A big reason this spread isn't double-digits, is because you have SMU coming into this game with a perfect 5-0 ATS record. The public loves to jump on these teams who cover every game early and that's when the books really turn the odds against those teams. 

Another thing with SMU, who is 4-1 SU, is they have played a very easy schedule. Their 4 wins are against the likes of SF Austin, North Texas, Arkansas St and UConn. The loss where they covered was a 20-point defeat against TCU, where they were catching 22. 

Houston is a team that I think is flying under the radar, even after a 3-1 start, as most people just wrote off this team after they lost head coach Tom Herman to Texas. The Cougars offense should have a field day here against a really bad SMU defense. The Mustangs rank 128th in the country against the pass, giving up 325 ypg, so expect a number of big plays and quick scores for the Cougars. Take Houston!

3* NCAAF Vegas 'ODDSMAKERS ERROR' on Coastal Carolina +

I'm taking the Chanticleers as a short home dog Saturday against the Panthers. Coastal Carolina is in the first year as a member of the Sun Belt and are more the capable of competing against the bottom tier of that conference. That's were Georgia State lies, as the Panthers lost at home to Tennessee State earlier this season. 

This is also a great matchup for the Chanticleers, who featured a run first offense, which comes in ranked 38th at 207.5 ypg. Georgia State is 80th against the run allowing 166.0 ypg and are giving up 5 yards/carry. 

This is also an offense that Coastal Carolina's defense can contain. The Panthers are 113th in rushing at 106 ypg and a mere 78th in passing. They rank 115 out of 130 FBS teams in total offense and 116th in scoring at just 19 ppg. Take Coastal Carolina! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt 'ATS BLOWOUT' on Old Dominion +

The books have the wrong team favored here. This line is a result of Old Dominion coming in off a couple of ugly losses to UNC and Virginia Tech, while FAU enters off a 38-20 blowout win at home over Middle Tennessee. This Owls team is one the public has been on early, as they look to back Lane Kiffin and his strong coaching staff. 

The thing is, the Monarchs won convincingly last year 42-24 and had more than 600 yards of total offense. They were also a 8.5-point favorite on the road for that contest, which is further evidence they shouldn't be a dog at home. 

The Monarchs have also been a covering machine against teams like FAU that own a losing record. Old Dominion is a perfect 6-0 the last 2 seasons when playing a team with a losing record and have won these matchups by an average of 20 ppg. Take Old Dominion! 

4* NCAAF Situational 'UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG' on Lafayette +

I like the value here with the Ragin' Cajuns catching over a touchdown here against the Vandals. Lafayette isn't going to overlook Idaho. In fact, they will be out for revenge from last year's double-digit loss at home. 

Last time out the Ragin' Cajuns lost at home to ULM as a 4-point favorite and that puts them in a very profitable spot. Louisiana is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off an upset loss as a home favorite. They are also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games under head coach Hudspeth after playing the previous game against a conference opponent. 

I look for Lafayette offensive attack to the be the difference in this one. The Ragin' Cajuns come in ranking in the top 60 in the country in both rushing and passing and are 40th overall. Idaho ranks outside the Top 65 in both rushing and passing and 82nd overall. 

I actually think we could see the Ragin' Cajuns win the game outright, which is why I think there's such great value with this spread. Take UL-Lafayette! 

4* NCAAF Small Conference 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Western Michigan -

We are getting some big time value here with the Broncos laying less than a touchdown against the Bulls. I believe it's a direct result of Buffalo coming into this one with a perfect 5-0 record against the spread. While Western Michigan has won 3 straight, they are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4, failing to cover against bad teams like Idaho and Wagner. 

The thing is, the Broncos are coming off an excellent showing in their conference opener, as they destroyed Ball State 55-3. I know this program lost a great coach in P.J. Fleck, as well as great talent from last year's team, but there's still a ton of really good players on this roster and I fully expect them to defend their MAC title this season. 

Plenty of reason to believe the Broncos will be able to move the ball against the Bulls defense. Western Michigan comes in with the 36th ranked rushing attack in the nation at 209.0 ypg, which is pretty impressive given two of their games were against USC and Michigan State. Buffalo has the  109th ranked run defense, allowing teams 208.8 ypg and that's with their toughest opponent to date being Minnesota. 

Note the Bulls also have the 88th ranked offense in the country against that soft schedule, while the Broncos have the 41st ranked defense. Western Michigan won 38-0 last year and while I don't foresee another shutout on the road, I think they have no problem here winning by double-digits. Take Western Michigan! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'DOMINATOR' on Purdue UNDER

The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's Big Ten matchup between Minnesota and Purdue. The Gophers were just upset at home by Maryland 31-24 for their first loss of the season. It was almost as if Minnesota didn't take the Terps seriously because they were down to a 3rd string QB that really struggled in their previous game. 

Fleck knows how to get the troops ready and he will have had the Gophers full attention in practice this week. I look for Minnesota to really come out strong on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind this defense had allowed a total of 24 points in their first 3 games combined. Purdue's offense is limited, totaling just 189 yards against the Wolverines. 

Purdue is one of the most improved teams in the country under first year head coach Jeff Brohm. This team competed in a 7-point loss to Louisville, made easy work of Ohio and Missouri and had a lead on Michigan at the half before fading late. 

I look for the Boilermakers defense to really make it hard on the Gophers offense, which is pretty limited to start with. Minnesota has no real threat of a passing game, as they rank 100th in the country at a mere 187 ypg. While running the ball is their focus, they are just 58th in rushing at 180.8 ypg. Purdue's defense has had their struggles against the pass, but rank in the top 50 against the run, only giving up 132 ypg (allowed 238 ypg last year). They also have had two full weeks to prepare for Minnesota off their bye. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Afternoon ATS 'VEGAS INSIDER' on LSU +

I really like this spot for the Tigers, who are coming off that embarrassing loss at home to Troy last week. The perception couldn't be any worse on LSU, yet they are only a short dog on the road against a Florida team that is sitting at 3-1 with a 3-0 record in the SEC. That tells me the books also like the Tigers here, as the public will lineup to take the Gators at this price. 

There's no excuse for losing to a Sun Belt team, but LSU was without one of their best players in RB Derrius Guice, who is expected to be back on the field for this game. I think he has a big game here against an overrated Florida defense, which comes in ranked 60th against the run and 82nd against the pass. 

I also think the Gators are overvalued right now, as they could very easily be 1-3 instead of 3-1, winning on last second plays against both Tennessee and Kentucky. You also have to factor in the injury/suspension situation for Florida. That makes it tough to compete with a team like LSU, who I still think is one of the better teams in the country. 

Florida is just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 following a game in which they covered the spread. LSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record and 27-13 in their last 40 road games after a loss. Take LSU! 

3* NCAAF Early Bird ATS 'NO BRAINER'  on Penn State -

I know this seems like a big number for the Nittany Lions to be laying against what many expected to be a strong Northwestern team, but the fact of the matter is, Penn State is even better than anticipated and the Wildcats are a lot worse. 

Northwestern's only two wins this season are against the likes of Nevada and Bowling Green. Neither one of those teams have won a game so far in 2017 and they trailed Nevada 7-17 at the half. The Wildcats were absolutely dominated in a 41-17 loss at Duke and trailed Wisconsin 31-10 with less than 10 minutes to play. 

The Badgers play a very physical style of football, which is going to make it that much tougher on Northwestern to bounce back here at home against one of most dynamic offenses the Big Ten has to offer. Look for Heisman frontrunner Saquon Barkley to have another monster game here. 

The big key here is the defense for Penn State and it's ability to shutdown the Wildcats struggling offensive attack. So much attention is paid to the offense, people don't realize how good the Nittany Lions are on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 13th in the country, giving up just 289.2 ypg. 

Northwestern's strength offensively is their passing game, which ranks 34th at 278.8 ypg (97th in rushing). That plays right into the strength of the Nittany Lions, who are 19th in the nation against the pass (161.8 ypg). Take Penn State in a blowout! 

4* NCAAF Sharp Money 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Penn State UNDER

I really like the value here with the total in Saturday's Penn State/Northwestern matchup. The fact that both these teams played in a game last week that saw more than 53 points, will certainly have the public looking to back the OVER. 

The thing is, both of those games that these two teams played in were fortunate to eclipse 50 points. The Nittany Lions had 2 non-offensive touchdowns in a 28 point 1st quarter. They also had a stretch of close to 25 minutes of game time where they didn't score at all. They only had 370 total yards and 20 first downs. Keep in mind they only had 21 the previous week against Iowa. 

Northwestern really made life easy on the Badgers. Wisconsin had just one scoring drive where they had to go more than 50 yards, plus added a defensive touchdown. There was also 16 garbage points scored in the final 5 minutes. The Wildcats only finished that game with 244 total yards and it's not the first time they have struggled. So much attention is paid to the offense, people don't realize how good the Nittany Lions are on the defensive side of the ball. They rank 13th in the country, giving up just 289.2 ypg. 

Northwestern's strength offensively is their passing game, which ranks 34th at 278.8 ypg (97th in rushing). That plays right into the strength of the Nittany Lions, who are 19th in the nation against the pass (161.8 ypg). On the flip side of this, I look for Northwestern's defense to compete enough here to keep this well below the mark. Take the UNDER!