5* NCAAF Non-Conf Total of the Month on Georgia/Georgia Southern OVER

I think the books have set the total way too low for this matchup. The perception is Georgia Southern, a team from the lowly Sun Belt Conference, won't be able to provide much offense against a SEC power like Georgia, who is coming off back-to-back strong defensive games where they held Kentucky to 3 points and Auburn to 13. 

The key here is that the Bulldogs aren't going to come out with the same intensity on defense against the Eagles as they would a conference opponent, especially with Georgia not really having a whole lot to play for right now at 7-3. I actually think this is a big letdown spot for the Bulldogs, as they have a huge revenge game on deck against in-state rival Georgia Tech. 

The other factor here is Georgia Southern brings a potent offense into Athens. The Eagles are averaging 37.4 ppg and have topped 43 points in 6 of their 9 games. Georgia Southern also runs an option based offense that is hard to prepare for, especially for a team like Georgia that doesn't see the option often. 

Defensively the Eagles aren't anything to write home about and Georgia's offensive line should be able to overpower them at the line of scrimmage. I look for a lot of big plays here from the Bulldogs, which will lead to quick scores. Keep in mind Georgia Southern gave up 44 points on 544 yards of total offense against West Virginia, who is not as talented offensively as Georgia. I see the Bulldogs scoring close to 40 with the Eagles in the mid to upper 20's. 

OVER is 8-1 in the Bulldogs last 9 games after playing a game where they didn't commit a turnover and 6-0 in their last 6 after a game where they had a turnover margin of +2 or better. OVER is also 7-0 in Georgia's last 7 against the Sun Belt, 7-0 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 5-1 in the Eagles last 6 non-conference games. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAF Situational ATS Game of the Week on Ole Miss -

Both the Rebels and Tigers are sitting at 4-2 in the SEC West, 1-game back of Alabama for the division lead. The big difference is that Ole Miss still has a prayer to play in the SEC Championship Game. If the Rebels were to win out and the Crimson Tide lose their regular season finale at Auburn, Ole Miss would be headed to Atlanta. It’s a long shot, but it’s at least something to play for.

LSU on the other hand is all but eliminated from the division race. I know last week’s loss against Arkansas came in a tough spot after losing that huge showdown against Alabama, but it might not be a one week letdown. After starting out 7-0 and thinking they had a shot at the playoffs, it can be hard to just play out the final few games. Very similar to what we saw last year with Ole Miss, who after starting 7-0 lost 3 straight conference games.

Another factor here is that LSU may not have been as good as their 7-0 start led people to believe. The Tigers played a cupcake schedule to start the year and are just now facing the elite teams in the SEC West. Ole Miss on the other hand has lost two really good teams in Florida and Memphis on the road and had a fluke loss against the Razorbacks. Most importantly they have a win at Alabama, which tells you just how talented this team is.

You also can’t overlook the huge revenge angle we have here with Ole Miss going up against the team that ruined their perfect season a year ago. I can assure you the Rebels haven’t forgot about that loss and will be eager to add to the Tigers struggles of late.

This is also a good matchup for Ole Miss. The strength of the Rebels defense is their ability to stop the run. Ole Miss is ranked 23rd nationally against the run, giving up just 125.7 ypg. LSU rushed for 54 yards against Alabama and scored 16 points. They then managed just 59 rushing yards against Arkansas and scored just 14. If the Rebels can keep Leonard Fournette in check, they should win this game comfortable, as the Tigers defense is not great.

LSU is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after playing their previous game at home and have lost these by an average of 9.4 ppg. The Tigers are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following a double-digit loss at home. Ole Miss is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 following a SU loss. Take Ole Miss!

3* NCAAF Oddsmakers ATS Line Mistake on USC +

I think we are seeing some exceptional value here with the Trojans as a 5-point dog against the Ducks. If this game was played a few weeks ago, I think we would have seen USC favored or at worst a pick'em. I believe USC is the better team and could turn this game into a blowout if the Ducks suffer any kind of letdown off last week's huge win over rival Stanford, which is a strong possibility. 

If you put the records aside and just look at the overall talent of all the Pac-12 teams, I believe USC is the best team in the conference. This team underperformed with Sarkisian and has excelled since he was fired and Clay Helton took over. USC is 4-1 under Helton with the only loss coming at Notre Dame 31-41, which they should have won. The Trojans led 31-24 going into the 4th quarter and outgained the Irish 590 to 476 on the game. 

The big key here is the USC defense is going to make the Ducks work offensively and not give up the big plays. The Trojans are only allowing 5.4 yards/play on the season. They are also allowing just 3.7 yards/carry, which is ideal against a Oregon offense that relies so much on their ability to run the ball.

On the flip side of this, the Ducks' defense is not very good. Oregon is giving up 6.1 yards/play and allowing 4.7 yards/carry. They are allowing 27 ppg on the season and allowed over 500 yards last week in their win against Stanford. Had it not been for 3 Cardinal turnovers, they likely would have lost. I don't see the Ducks slowing down a USC offense that is averaging 36.4 ppg and 465 ypg with an average of 6.7 yards/play. 

The Trojans are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams who allow 34 or more points  per game and have won these by an average score of 48.3 to 14.9. It's also worth noting that Oregon is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take USC! 

3* NCAAF Undervalued Underdog on Illinois +

I think we are getting some exceptional value here on the Fighting Illini as dog against the Golden Gophers. The perception here is that these are two evenly matched teams, but I don't think that's the case at all. I think Illinois is the far superior team in this matchup and should actually be favored. 

I also think this is an awful spot for Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are coming off a 4-game gauntlet against Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa. Minnesota put everything they had into beating undefeated rival Iowa on the road last week and nearly pulled off the upset. I just don't see the Gophers bringing that same intensity against the Illini. 

Illinois has the better offense and defense in this matchup, but are being way undervalued due to the fact that they are coming off a ugly 3-28 loss to Ohio State last week at home. Speaking of losing to the Buckeyes, all of Illinois' losses have come against top level teams. They have lost to North Carolina, Iowa, Wisconsin Penn State and Ohio State. The worst of those teams is Penn State at 7-3. 

These two teams have played 5 common opponents this year, including a non-conference game against Kent State. Illinois crushed Kent State 52-3, while Minnesota barely won 10-7. Overall against the 5 common opponents, Illinois averaged 27.4 ppg on 388.6 ypg, compared to the Gophers at 25.0 ppg and 362. ypg. The big difference is on defense. Against these same 5 opponents, the Illini have allowed 17.4 ppg, where Minnesota has given up 27.2 ppg. 

The Gophers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games with a total set at 45.5 to 49 points, while the Fighting Illini are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games agains a team with a losing home record. Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of Minnesota. Home favorites in a matchup at least 8 games into the season, where both teams come in averaging 3.5 to 4.3 yards/carry on the ground, are just 71-124 (36%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Illinois! 

4* Cinc/USF NCAAF ATS Heavy Hitter on USF +

Not surprised here to see the betting public drawn more to Cincinnati as a small road favorite, as they are the more recognized program that has sustained long-term success. However, I think the value here is with the Bulls catching points at home, the home team in the series has won and covered each of the last 3 meetings.

South Florida comes into this game playing their best football of the season an are not getting near the respect they deserve for last week’s impressive win at home against Temple, who came into that game sitting at 8-1 with their only loss by 4-points at home to Norte Dame. The Bulls outgained the Owls by 176 yards, which came just 1 week after outgaining East Carolina on the road by 222 yards.

The situation also greatly favors South Florida. This will be senior night for the Bulls in their home finale, which is only magnified by this being a nationally televised game against a well-respected team like Cincinnati.

On the flip side of this, the Bearcats don’t have a whole lot left to play for at 3-3 in the conference and 6-4 overall. It's been a disappointing season to say the least for Cincinnati, who came in with the expectation of winning the AAC and playing in a premier bowl. It can be extremely difficult to give your all down the stretch when you know your goals are out of reach.  The Bearcats also just got done playing their home finale last week and struggled to get up for that contest against Tulsa.

The Bearcats better hope their offense comes to play or this will turn into a blowout by South Florida. Cincinnati’s defense figures to have a hard time slowing down Marlon Mack and the Bulls 15th ranked rushing attack (227.9 ypg). The Bearcats are 88th in the country against the run (186.1 ypg) and have allowed 200+ on the ground in each of their last 3 games.

You also have to take note that South Florida’s defense has been lights out at home, where they are allowing just 17.6 ppg, 2.5 yards/rush and a 53.2% completion rate. Even if Cincinnati came to play, which I don’t think they will, I don’t think they would be lighting up the scoreboard against this defense on the road.

The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against strong passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better, while Cincinnati is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 when coming into a contest having thrown for 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games. Take South Florida!

4* ECU/UCF NCAAF ATS No Brainer on East Carolina -

While I’m sure the Knights will come into this game motivated to get their first win of the season in a nationally televised home game, I just don’t see them keeping this game close. It's also worth noting that this is not UCF's home finale, as they host in-state rival South Florida next week.

Out of the Knight’s 10 losses this season, only two have come by fewer than 14 points. That was their home opener against FIU (14-15) and a home game against FCS foe Furman (15-16).

East Carolina latest 3-game losing streak started with a heartbreaking 14-24 loss at home against Temple, where the Pirates failed to hold on to a 14-10 4th quarter lead. They came out flat and got beat bad on the road the next week by an up-and-coming Connecticut team 31-13 and then lost another heartbreaker to USF (led 17-15 in 4th quarter), who is another under the radar team in the AAC. 

Needless to say, the bye week for East Carolina couldn’t have come at a better time. With an overall record of 4-6, the Pirates need to win out to make a bowl. I look for head coach Ruffin McNeill to have his players motivated and focused on beating the Knights. Not only are they playing to keep their bowl hopes alive, but East Carolina has double-revenge on their mind against UCF.

UCF has shown no ability to stop opposing teams from putting a big number offensively. The Knights have allowed at least 30 points in 7 straight games and 45+ in each of their last 3. East Carolina offense hasn’t topped 17 points in 3 straight games, but they also faced 3 strong defenses during that stretch. The Pirates will be excited about getting their offense going and should have no problem doing so against a UCF defense that ranks 96th against the run (196.0 ypg) and 95th against the pass (253.2 ypg).

As bad as the defense has been for the Knights, the offense has been even worse. UCF ranks 126th in the country in total offense at just 279.6 ypg. East Carolina doesn’t have a great defense, but are more than capable of keeping the Knights in check.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on East Carolina. Road teams who have been beaten by the spread by 35 or more combined points in their last 3 games against an opponent that has gone over the total by 28 or more combined points in their last 3 are 52-24 (68%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. We also see that the Knights is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a losing record. Take East Carolina!

4* W Mich/N Ill NCAAF Vegas Insider on N Illinois -

I think we are seeing some great value here with Northern Illinois less than a field goal at home against the Broncos. The Huskies always seem to play their best football when it matters the most and that's been the case again this year.

Northern Illinois went on the road a couple weeks ago and stunned Toledo 32-27 as a 7-point underdog, erasing an 8-point 4th quarter deficit. They followed that up with a 41-30 win at Buffalo as a 7-point favorite. Overall the Huskies have won 5 straight. 

Western Michigan is getting some respect here, as they opened up 5-0 in conference play and aren’t going to get punished for losing to the best team in the MAC in Bowling Green. The Broncos also defeated Central Michigan 41-39 at home, while Northern Illinois lost at Central Michigan 19-29. I don’t think that’s worth looking at, as this is an improved Huskies team that is playing their best football.

You also have to keep in mind that Northern Illinois has owned this series. The Huskies have won 6 straight, including a 31-21 win at Western Michigan last year as a 8.5-point underdog. 

The Huskies come into this game with the 21st ranked rushing offense (219.7 ypg) and the 49th ranked run defense (153.4 ypg). However, those numbers are drastically better inside conference play. Northern Illinois is averaging 262 ypg and 4.7 yards/carry against fellow MAC teams and allowing just 147 ypg and 3.9 yards/carry. While the Broncos also feature a strong rushing attack, there run defense isn’t very good, especially away from home. Western Michigan is allowing 240 ypg ypg and 6.2 yards/carry on the road this year. They gave up 236 yards on the ground last week to Bowling Green and 226 in their last road game against Eastern Michigan.

Northern Illinois is 32-14 ATS in their last 46 against teams who are allowing 4.75 or more yards/carry against the run and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games played in the month of November.

We also find a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Broncos. Road underdogs who are averaging 525 total yards over their last 2 and 6.2 or more yards/play on the season, are just 9-27 (25%) ATS since 1992 against an opponent that is only allowing 4.8 to 5.6 yards/play at least 8 games into season. Take Northern Illinois! 

4* Toledo/BG Tuesday Night MAC ATS Annihilator on Toledo +

While both teams have been impressive against the spread in 2015, Bowling Green has been the more impressive team of late. The Falcons have won 5 straight games by at least 14-points. Toledo on the other hand barely held on for a cover last week against Central Michigan and lost the previous week at home to Northern Illinois 23-32 as a 7-point favorite. I believe the books have inflated the line here in favor of the Falcons, knowing the public will be more inclined to back the Falcons.

A huge key to handicapping this late in the season is motivation and I think the Rockets will be the more hungry and focused team on Tuesday. Toledo is in a do or die situation here, as a loss would all but ruin their hopes of playing in the title game. As for the Falcons, they just clinched the West title last week and really don’t have much else to play for in their final 2 regular season games. They were in a similar spot last year and closed out the regular season with back-to-back losses, losing 20-27 at Toledo and 24-41 at home against Ball State (10-point favorite).

Another reason that I like the Rockets is they have the offensive fire-power to take advantage of a Bowling Green defense that ranks 96th in the country, allowing 439.5 ypg. Toledo has the 41st ranked passing attack (251.4 ypg) and the 23rd ranked rushing offense (216.2 ypg).

At the same time, the Rockets have a stringy defense that can keep the Falcons high-scoring offense in check. Toledo ranks 41st in total defense (375.4 ypg). They are holding opponents to just 3.4 yards/carry on the ground and opposing quarterbacks are only completing 58.2% of their attempts.

The other big factor that I like is that Rockets have a proven track record against the Falcons. Toledo has won 5 straight in the series and that includes two wins on the road. The Rockets won 28-25 as a 4-point dog at Bowling Green in 2013 and 28-21 as a 8.5-point favorite in 2011. Take Toledo! 

5* Big 12 Game of the Month on Baylor -

I believe the injury to Russell has provided some exceptional value with Baylor laying less than a field goal at home against the Sooners. Keep in mind that when oddsmakers released their early odds on several big games prior to the season starting, the Bears were a 11.5-point favorite in this matchup.

Russell is not worth 9-points, especially with what I saw from Stidham last week against Kansas State. To go on the road in a hostile environment and throw for 419 yards and 3 touchdowns, says a lot about this kid and his potential. Keep in mind he was one of the top 5 rated quarterbacks out of high school. I think he's got the chance to leave Baylor as the best quarterback in the Art Briles era and that's saying something.

One of the reasons we are seeing so much value with the Bears, is due to Oklahoma having won and covered 4 straight games in blowout fashion. The thing to keep in mind is those all came against bottom feeder teams. I know some will point to them winning 55-0 at Kansas State, while Baylor only won by 7. The key thing to keep in mind is the Wildcats were coming off a heartbreaking loss to TCU the week prior to playing the Sooners and were much more motivated for a nationally televised home weekday game against an undefeated Baylor team.

The Sooners only real road test came at Tennessee back in Week 2. They won the game 31-24 in overtime, but the Volunteers played a big roll in that victory. Tennessee led 17-0 and 17-3 going into the 4th quarter. That’s not a great Volunteers defense and Baylor isn’t going to be held to 17-points at home.

It’s also hard for me to overlook the last couple of meetings, which Baylor has won by a combined score of 89-26. Oklahoma only managed 14-points against the Bears last year at home and Baylor is a much better defensive team this time around. Even if the Sooners get their offense going, I still would take my chances on the Bears winning here by at least a field goal at home. The Bears have a much stronger home field edge than they get credit for.

Baylor is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 as a home favorite and 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games when the total is set at 70 or more points. Oklahoma on the other hand is 20-42 ATS in their last 62 after allowing 17 or less in 2 straight games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against the Bears. Take Baylor! 

3* NCAAF Situational Oddsmakers Error on Kentucky +

The Wildcats are showing some exceptional value here as a 3.5-point dog against the Commodores. Vanderbilt is getting all kinds of love from the books after last weeks surprising near upset of Florida. However, I think that's where the value lies. The Commodores gave everything they had in that game against the Gators and I just don't see them bringing that same intensity here against a Kentucky team that has lost 4 straight. 

The thing to keep in mind with the Wildcats 4-game losing streak is they should have beat Auburn at home in a 27-30 loss. They didn't play well on the road at Mississippi State or Georgia, but that's not a big surprise and they got beat bad at home by a Tennessee team that is much better than their record would indicate. The key thing here is all of this will have the Wildcats extremely motivated for this game, especially considering this game could be the difference in making or bowl or not. 

While Vanderbilt's been playing really good defense, I don't think that intensity will be there off the loss to Florida. I look for Kentucky running back Stanley Williams to be a difference maker in this game. Williams is averaging 6.6 yards/carry and should be fresh after sitting out last week's game against Georgia with an elbow injury. 

The other key here is that Vanderbilt doesn't have much to offer offensively. They have scored 10 or fewer in 4 straight games. Kentucky scores 2 touchdowns and the Commodores would have to score 18+ to cover. I just see too much value here with the Wildcats catching 3.5-points in a game that means so much more to Kentucky. 

There's also a strong system in play. Road underdogs off 2 straight loss by 17 or more points against an opponent that scored 14 or less in their last game are 41-16 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 72% system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Kentucky! 

3* NCAAF Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi State +

Last week’s dominating performance by Alabama against LSU may have come as a surprise to some, but that was a great matchup for the Crimson Tide. Alabama has one of the best front 7’s in the country and are built to stop teams like the Tigers, whose offense is built on running the football right at you.

I believe that win has the Crimson Tide overvalued here on the road against a Mississippi State team that comes in playing their best football of the season. At the same time, this is a horrible spot for Alabama off that huge game against LSU.

Last year they failed to cover at home against the Bulldogs after an overtime win at LSU, the year before they didn’t cover at Mississippi State as a 24-point favorite after crushing LSU 38-17 the previous week and in 2012 they lost outright at home to Texas A&M off a 21-17 win at No. 5 LSU.

Most importantly, is the Bulldogs aren’t a team that wants to hand the ball off an try and run it down your throat. Senior quarterback Dak Prescott puts a lot of pressure on opposing defenses with his ability to beat you with both his arm and his legs and that’s something Alabama has struggled with over recent years. Adding to this is the fact that Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons against teams who are allowing 120 or less rushing yards/game.

Last season, Prescott threw for 290 yards and 2 touchdowns, while also rushing for another 82. Had it not been for 3 interceptions, Mississippi State might have pulled off the upset. Prescott is a much more mature and improved quarterback from last year. He’s completed 66.7% of his attempts with 18 touchdowns to just 1 interception. Last season he only completed 61.6% of his attempts with 11 interceptions.

It’s also worth noting that while Alabama is coming off their biggest game of year, this is Mississippi State’s biggest game to date. The Bulldogs have had this game circled on the calendar since the schedule was released as they are out for serious revenge. Last year Mississippi State went in Tuscaloosa ranked #1 in the country and were a perfect 9-0. I don’t know if they have what it takes to pull off the upset, but I would have to lean towards them covering the 8-point spread.

We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Crimson Tide. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who are allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more yards on the ground are just 23-49 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 68% system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State!

4* NCAAF Vegas Insider Game of the Week on NC State +9

This is an awful spot for Florida State. While the Seminoles are getting some respect here from the books after covering the spread last week against Clemson, it’s going to be tough for Florida State to bounce back after that loss. I know they can still finish the year 10-2 and potentially play in a big time bowl, but this is a team that had their eyes set on making the playoffs, especially after their 6-0 start. Any hopes of accomplishing those goals were thrown out the window in the loss to Clemson.

While the Seminoles could find it difficult to bring any kind of energy and focus to this game, I look for NC State to come out inspired and hungry for a win against Florida State. The Wolfpack are playing with double-revenge and will be looking for their first win in Tallahassee since 2005. It’s also worth noting that I think this being an early game and not televised on any major network (ESPN3), increases NC State’s chances of pulling off the upset.

Another factor here that gives NC State a reasonable shot at keeping this game close enough to cover, is they have a defense that can keep Florida State’s Dalvin Cook in check. The Wolfpack come in ranked 9th in the country in total defense (296.2 ypg) and are 15th against the run (113.1 ypg).

NC State is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games played on Saturday and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing 2 straight against conference opponents. Florida State on the other hand is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after a game where they covered the spread.

We also see a strong system in play backing a fade of the Seminoles. Home favorites with a winning record on the season off a cover where the team lost as an underdog are just 22-51 (30%) ATS since 1992 when playing another winning team. Take NC State! 

4* Georgia/Auburn SEC Game of the Week on Georgia +

After taking a closer look at this game, I really like Georgia to cover the spread and come away with a win on the road. The Bulldogs are 6-3 with their only 3 losses coming at the hands of Alabama, Tennessee and Florida. The Crimson Tide and Gators are both looking like they will be playing in the SEC Championship Game and Tennessee is a heck of a lot better than their record would indicate. 

Auburn went on the road and beat Texas A&M, but I don’t think that’s as big of a win as some people are making it out to be. The Aggies barely held on to beat South Carolina at home the previous week and it was a perfect matchup for the Tigers with Texas A&M struggling against the run. Auburn’s only other conference win came at Kentucky 30-27, in a game where they outgained by 90 yards. Georgia just destroyed the Wildcats and finished with a 210 yard advantage.

It’s also worth noting that Georgia has dominated this series of late. They have one 3 of the last 4 and the only loss during this stretch came on a fluke 73-yard touchdown pass (bounced off Georgia defender and into arms of Ricardo Louis) at the end of regulation back in 2013. In last year’s win they outgained Auburn 412 to 292. While the Bulldogs aren’t quite as good as they were in 2014, neither are the Tigers.

A big reason why I like Georgia is they have the defense to not allow Auburn to get their running game going. The Bulldogs are allowing just 3.6 yards/carry against the run. Prior to racking up 311 yards on the ground last week against Texas A&M, Auburn's best output in their previous 3 games was 162. On the flip side of this, Auburn's defense isn't any good. The Tigers are allowing 4.8 yards/carry an opposing quarterbacks are completing 61.8% of their attempts.

Auburn is just 1-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons against teams that are averaging 5.9 or more yards/play (Georgia averages 6.3) and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 against teams who are averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/attempt (Georgia averages 5.6). Bulldogs are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.

We also see a strong system backing a fade of the Tigers. Home teams that have a winning percentage of 45%-55% that have lost 2 of their last 3 with a line of +3 to -3 are just 7-31 (18%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Georgia! 

4* USC/Colorado Pac-12 Game of the Week on Colorado +

After watching the Buffaloes put up little to no fight last week at home against Stanford and USC having won 3 of 4 (only loss at Notre Dame) since Clay Helton took over as the interim head coach, it’s safe to say the betting public will be all over USC at this line, especially given the fact that Colorado has never kept a game this close against the Trojans since joining the Pac-12.

I believe the books are telling us something with this line sitting right below the key number of 17, as they are all but begging for money on the Trojans. I’ll take my chances on the Buffaloes keeping this one close enough to cover.

Colorado doesn’t get the opportunity to play at home in a nationally televised game very often, so I’m fully expecting the Buffaloes to come out and play their heart out in this game. USC on the other hand doesn’t really have a whole to play for in this matchup. The Trojans have already secured a bowl bid and simply need to come away with a win to keep their hopes of playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game (need to win out and have Utah lose 1 of their last 3).

I just don’t see USC taking Colorado all that seriously, similar to what we saw last week with their game against an Arizona team that had really been struggling. Instead, I see the Trojans looking ahead to their two huge games to finish the season at Oregon and at home against UCLA.

You also have to look past the Buffaloes last game and see that they have played some of the better teams close. They only lost by 4-points on the road the previous week at UCLA, lost by just 7 at home to Arizona and 17 at home to Oregon.

The key here with this big spread is Colorado has the offensive fire-power to keep the game close or potentially bring home the back-door cover. The Buffaloes rank a respectable 46th in the country in total offense (424.8 ypg) and have done so behind a balanced attack. Colorado is averaging 185.5 ypg on the ground and 239.3 ypg through the air. They will be facing a USC defense that has had it’s struggles and comes in ranked 92nd against the pass (254.2 ypg).

Over the last 2 seasons the Trojans are 0-6 ATS when they come into a contest having won 3 out of their last 4. USC is also just 8-21 ATS in their last 29 off a SU win and 7-15 ATS in their last 22 on the road.

4* Va Tech/Ga Tech ACC Vegas Insider on Va Tech +

During the bye week for the Hokies, Frank Beamer announced that he would be retiring after the conclusion of his 30th season as the head coach of Virginia Tech. I believe this is going to serve as a huge motivational edge for the Hokies over their final 3 games.

Georgia Tech pulled off that miracle win against Florida State in their last home game, but weren’t able to carry over that momentum in their next game at Virginia. Most are going to look at the fact that the Yellow Jackets need to win out to make a bowl game and use that as a deciding factor in backing them here against the Hokies, but I just think this is a lost season for Paul Johnson and Georgia Tech.

Virginia Tech hasn’t been much better with a 4-5 record, but a big reason for that is they played the majority of their games without senior starting quarterback Michael Brewer, who didn’t take back full time duties until their home game against Duke. He stepped in an threw for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns in a heartbreaking 43-45 4-overtime loss to the Blue Devils, but bounced back and guided them to a 26-10 win at Boston College. It’s not out of the question that Virginia Tech could be sitting at 7-2 or 6-3 had Brewer not went down with an injury.

I also think there’s some value here with Virginia Tech playing with revenge from last year’s home loss, plus the fact that they have won each of their last two trips to Atlanta. Adding to this is the fact that the Hokies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games as a underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.

We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Yellow Jackets. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 are just 64-113 (36%) ATS after the first month of the season over the last 5 years. Take Virginia Tech! 

4* W Michigan/Bowling Green NCAAF ATS Annihilator on W Michigan +

This line is indicating that the books would have Bowling Green listed around a 6 to 6.5 point favorite on a neutral field and I just don’t see that big of a gap here between these two teams. The key here is that Bowling Green has the better record and is the more recognized team out of the MAC, which has likely resulted in this inflated line. 

Another important factor here is just how much more this game means to the Broncos than it does the Falcons. With 3 teams sitting only a game back and Western Michigan still having to play two of those, they simply can’t afford a loss. Bowling Green on the other hand doesn’t have a ton left to play for, as they could lose their final 3 games and still win their division.

Both of these teams feature dynamic offenses. The Falcons rank 3rd in the country in total offense at 593.6 ypg and are scoring 45.9 ppg (51.8 ppg in MAC). Western Michigan isn’t far behind. The Broncos rank 22nd in total offense (485.8 ypg) and are averaging 38.0 ppg (47.4 ppg in MAC).

Where these two teams are different is on the defensive side of the ball. Western Michigan ranks a respectable 58th in total defense (389.2 ypg), while Bowling Green is just 96th (434.3 ypg). The team that makes the most stops figures to come out on top and you have to give the edge to the Broncos defense being the more consistent of the two, especially playing at home.

It's also important to note that Bowling Green's offense is built around their passing game. The Falcons average 430 ypg through the air compared too use 163 on the ground. Western Michigan's defense is much better against the pass than the run. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 56% of their attempts against them. Adding to this is the fact that we are expecting to see strong winds of close to 20 mph during the game, which hurts the passing game for both teams. I believe it has a much bigger effect on the Falcons offense and their ability to move the ball, as the Broncos average 208 ypg and 5.3 yards/carry on the ground. 

It’s also worth noting that Western Michigan won at Bowling Green last year 26-14 as a 3-point underdog and have won 4 straight in the series overall. We also see that the Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after back-to-back blowout wins by 17 or more points, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a home win. Take Western Michigan! 

5* Tuesday Night MAC ATS No Brainer on C. Michigan +

I think we are seeing some great value here with the Chippewas as a home underdog against Toledo. This is not a great spot for the Rockets, who invested a lot into beating Northern Illinois last week, who they have now lost 6 straight against. Leading most of the game and to give it away late will only make it that much harder to bounce back.

You also have to factor in that defeat snapped Toledo’s perfect 7-0 start to the season. Anytime a team suffers their first loss this late in the season, it can be difficult to regain their momentum.

Central Michigan has been flying under the radar in 2015, which is evident by their 7-1 record ATS. The Chippewas are definitely prepared for this big game, as they have played a tough schedule to start the year. They played Oklahoma State tough at home losing 13-24, lost a heartbreaker in overtime at Syracuse 27-30 (outgained the Orange 520 to 326), kept it close at Michigan State in a 10-30 defeat and lost another heartbreaker at Western Michigan 39-41.

Toledo on the other hand got a lot of respect for their perfect start to the season, which included a 16-12 win at Arkansas and 30-23 overtime win against Iowa State. They were very fortunate to win both of those games, as they were outgained by 197 yards in their win over the Razorbacks and 172 yards in the win against Iowa State (Cyclones missed potential game-winning field goal in regulation). Struggling at home against Iowa State and not being able to hold on against Northern Illinois, has me concerned this team isn't as good as people think.

Playing at home an having a few extra days of rest/preparation coming off a bye last week, are huge advantages for Central Michigan, but the real key here for me is the quarterback play of these two teams. Toledo’s Phillip Ely is completing just 54.1% of his attempts with 9 interceptions (5 last two games), while the Chippewas’ Cooper Rush is completing 69% of his attempts with 20 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. I believe Rush outplays Ely and Central Michigan wins this game outright.

Toledo is just 15-31 ATS in their last 46 against teams who are completing 62% or more of their pass attempts, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played on Tuesday and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a loss. Chippewas are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 off a bye, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 in November and 4-0 ATS in last 4 at home. 

Adding to all of this is a great system backing a fade of the Rockets. Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent off a road win are just 11-35 (24%) ATS since 1992. Take Central Michigan! 

5* Big Ten Game of the Month on Michigan St -

I think we are seeing tremendous value here with Michigan State laying less than a touchdown against a Nebraska team that looks to be on the verge of throwing in the towel on the season. The Cornhuskers came out extremely flat on the road last week against Purdue and lost 45-55 in a game that was never really close. All those heartbreaking losses early in the year appear to be too much for this team to overcome. 

Michigan State on the other hand is prime for a big time performance. The Spartans were ranked 7th in the first initial playoff poll and know they need to do more if they want to be one of the 4 teams at the top. I look for this team to come out fresh and highly motivated off a much-needed bye week. Getting an extra week off this time a year is huge and it's worth noting that while Michigan State is rested, Nebraska hasn't had a bye week yet this season and won get one until after next week's game against Rutgers. 

Nebraska is expected to get back starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong, but it's likely the foot injury that forced him to sit out last week will have him playing at less than 100% and that's a concern cause they need him to be dynamic to keep this game close. Michigan State's defense has had some troubles against the pass (don't be surprised if they are improved in that area out of the bye), but have been dominant against the run (115.5 ypg, 18th). On the flip side, Connor Cook and the Spartans offense should have their way here against a Nebraska defense that ranks a dismal 120th in the country against the pass (315.9 ypg). 

Michigan State has won 12 straight conference road games and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games off 3 or more straight wins against a conference opponent. Spartans are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 years. Nebraska on the other hand is 0-7 ATS the last 3 years in home games in the 2nd half of the season and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Michigan State!

4* FSU/Clemson ACC Game of the Week on FSU +

I think we are seeing some great value here with Florida State as a dobule-digit underdog. Even when the Seminoles were sitting at 5-0, no one wanted to give this team any love. Clemson on the other hand has been hyped from the start and are getting all kinds of respect right now. I think it’s resulted in an inflated line on the Tigers in a huge rivalry game that they haven’t been able to win the past few seasons.

Clemson was able to avoid the upset last week at NC State and even covered the spread, but that was far from a dominating performance. Sure the offense looked great against the Wolfpack, but to give up 41 points to NC State is concerning, especially when you factor the Wolfpack only managed 13 points against both Louisville and Virginia Tech.

I’m not saying the Tigers aren’t a good defensive team, but I don’t think they are as strong as people think. Keep in mind they allowed over 430 yards of total offense at home against Notre Dame, a game they arguably should have lost. The Irish outgunned Clemson by 141 yards and had a chance to force overtime late despite being committing 4 turnovers to the Tigers 1.

Florida State has the fire-power offensively to keep this game close, whether it’s Everett Golson or Sean Maguire at quarterback. Most importantly, they have the talent defensively to keep DeShaun Watson and the Tigers’ offense in check. Florida State hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game all season and come in having performed well against both the run (139.4 ypg, 37th) and the pass (184.1 ypg, 23rd).

Rivalry games have a way of favoring the underdog, especially when you start to deal with double-digit spreads like we have hear. You also have to take into account the mentality of these teams. Clemson was just anointed the #1 team in the country by the playoff committee and Florida State is being listed as an underdog for the first time in years. I would not be surprised at all if the Seminoles pulled off the outright upset. Take Florida State! 

4* TCU/Oklahoma St Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma St +

While both teams come into this game at 8-0, I don’t think there’s any doubt the majority of the tickets will be coming in on the Horned Frogs. That raises a big red flag for me, as this line is begging for you take TCU.

It’s hard for me to ignore how the home team has dominated this series, winning each of the last 3. You also have to take into account the huge revenge angle here with Oklahoma State getting embarrassed by 31 points last year.

A big key here for me is that Oklahoma State has the offensive fire-power to take advantage of a suspect TCU defense and match the Horned Frogs score for score. On the flip side of this, the Cowboys are the stronger defensive team, though it might not be by much. Oklahoma State ranks 38th in total defense (357.0 ypg), while TCU ranks 57th (388.6 ypg).

Another factor that I think a lot of people will overlook is the obvious struggles that TCU has had on the road. They were far from impressive in a 23-17 win at Minnesota, who is 1-3 in Big Ten play, they got a fluke tipped pass that ended up being caught for a touchdown in a last second win against Texas Tech, they had to rally from an 18-point halftime deficit at Kansas State and only led Iowa State 24-21 at the half. Oklahoma State is without question the best team they will faced on the road this season and I think there's a good chance we see the Cowboys pull off the upset.

Oklahoma State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games during the month of November, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against the Big 12 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. The Cowboys are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after playing in a game where 70 or more combined points were scored, while TCU is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Oklahoma State!

5* American Athletic Game of the Month on Cincinnati +

With Houston sitting at 8-0 and having gone 6-2 ATS with an easy cover last time out in a 34-0 win at home against Vanderbilt, I believe we are seeing the Cougars way overvalued here against a very good Cincinnati team, who has won each of the last 5 meetings in the series, including a 38-31 win last year at home and 24-17 victory at Houston in 2013. 

What gets lost in Houston's impressive start to the season is the lack of quality opponents they have played. Their 4 conference games so far have come against UCF, Tulane, Tulsa and SMU, who are a combined 2-16 in the AAC and 7-26 overall. Their win against Vanderbilt looks nice, but that game meant so much more to the Cougars than the Vandals and Vanderbilt isn't a good team. The best team Houston has faced this season is Louisville and they barely won 34-31 with a  4-1 edge in turnovers. 

Cincinnati has without a doubt played the tougher schedule, as they have went up against the likes of Temple, Memphis Miami and BYU. Everyone is talking about Temple and Memphis right now. Cincinnati should have beat them both. They outgained the Owls 557-296 in a fluke 26-34 loss and outgained  Memphis 752 to 570 in a 46-53 defeat. This Cincinnati team is fully capable of winning this game and should not betting getting near double-digits. 

Even with the easy schedule, Houston's defense ranks 78th in the country agains the pass, giving up 236.3 ypg. Cincinnati has the 6th best passing attack in the country at 370.6 ypg and are also a respectable 29th in rushing (206.0 ypg). If Houston's offense stumbles at all early, this game could get out of hand for the Cougars.

Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a conference win by 21 or more points, 9-1 in their last 10 road games after 2 straight covers and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after leading in their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half. Houston on the other hand is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 6 points or less. These trends combine to form a dynamite 43-7 (86%) System in favor of the Bearcats. Take Cincinnati!

3* NCAAF Situational ATS Annihilator on NC State -

Some will argue that the Wolfpack are in a letdown spot after last week's 41-56 loss against Clemson, but I actually think NC State came away with some confidence from that game, as it showed them they can play with the best team in the country. 

I look for the Wolfpack to come out motivated off that loss against a Boston College team that is quickly running out of things to play for. It's well-known that the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the country, but how much longer can the defense continue to play their hearts out with an offense that struggles just to get first downs. Last week they held Virginia Tech to just 275 total yards, but the offense turned it over 4 times and they lost the game 10-26. 

I just feel that NC State has too much offensive fire-power for the Eagles to keep this game close enough to cover, especially with the Wolfpack being strong enough defensive team to keep BC in check. I'm also well aware of the loss of running back Matthew Dayes, but I don't think he would have been a huge factor here against the Eagles stout run defense. If anything it's kept the line down to where there's great value on the Wolfpack. 

It's also worth noting this is a big revenge spot for the Wolfpack after losing 14-30 at home to BC last year. They are also looking to end a 5-game road losing streak in the series. It's a similar spot to their road game against Wake Forest, who they had lost 8 straight games against. This is a game they want to win more than people think. 

NC State is 28-14 ATS in their last 32 against teams that are allowing 17 or less points/game, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a loss. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of a fade of the Eagles. Home teams who are a poor offensive team that averages 4.2 to 4.8 yards/play and have totaled 225 or less total yards/game over their last 2 contests  are 4-25 ATS over the last 10 seasons when facing an opponent with an average defense that allows 4.8 to 5.6 yards/play. That's a 86% 10-year system in favor of the Wolfpack. Take NC State! 

4* Temple/SMU Total No Brainer on OVER

The Owls got all kinds of media hype last week leading up to their showdown at home against Notre Dame, which was the location of Game Day. A lot of the talk was about how good their defense was and they didn't disappoint, holding the Irish to just 24 points in near upset. 

I believe that hype has resulted in a much lower total than what we should be seeing in this matchup. This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Owls, going on the road with a short week of rest against a SMU team that is sitting at 1-7 with a 6-game losing streak. Temple will struggle to bring anywhere close to the intensity they had last week against Notre Dame, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

I look for SMU to take advantage and put up a decent number offensively. The Mustangs are are a strong offensive team, averaging 28.7 ppg on 414 ypg. They have the 43rd ranked passing attack at 253.1 ypg and should be able to create some big plays through the air against Temple's 69th ranked passing attack (226.3 ypg). 

The big key here is that regardless if the Owls are 100% focused or not, they aren't going to have much trouble putting up points against this SMU defense. The Mustangs rank 119th against the run (259.0 ypg) and 104th against the pass (265.4 ypg). They have allowed at least 38 points in each of their last 6 games. If temple simply scores 38, we only need SMU to score 14 points to eclipse this total. 

OVER is 10-1 in Temple's last 11 road games after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their last game, 6-0 in SMU's last 6 off a conference home loss and 6-0 in the Mustangs last 6 after failing to cover in 2 straight games. Take the OVER! 

5* Baylor/K-State Big 12 ATS Vegas Insider on K-State +

Baylor should not be this big of a favorite, considering the huge blow the Bears suffered with starting quarterback Seth Russell being lost for the rest of season to a neck injury. It’s set up some great value here with the Wildcats as a big home dog in a nationally televised weekday game.

The perception is that Baylor’s offense can plug-and-play anyone at quarterback and have success, but I’m not so convinced that will be the case. However, most will buy into the perception when they see that freshman backup Jarrett Stidham has completed 24 of 28 attempts for 331 yards with 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The big key is that all of those numbers came in mop up duty. There’s going to be tremendous pressure on Stidham to keep the Bears’ perfect season alive and I just don’t see him playing well in his first start on the road against a well-coached and highly motivated Kansas State team.

While the Wildcats are 3-4 and clearly down in 2015, they have played against two of the better teams in the Big 12. They lost 34-36 at Oklahoma State and had TCU on the ropes (led by 18 at the half) in a heartbreaking 45-52 loss. I can assure you Kansas State was hoping that Baylor would be undefeated when this game rolled around, as they would love nothing more than to ruin the Bears perfect season after they spoiled the Wildcats hopes of playing in the BCS Championship Game back in 2012.

Statistically the numbers are going to favor Baylor by a wide margin, but I wouldn’t read to much into them. Under Synder the Wildcats are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games off a road loss, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a conference loss by 10 or more points, 21-8 ATS in their last 29 against a team with a winning record and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 coming off a bye.

We also find a strong system in play favoring the Wildcats. Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points are 26-6 (81%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when they come into a game after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games against an opponent that has played in back-to-back games where 60 or more combined points were scored. Take Kansas State!

4* Ohio/Bowling Green NCAAF ATS No Brainer on Ohio +

We are seeing a huge overreaction here with the current line here. Ohio comes into this game off back-to-back blowout losses to Western Michigan (14-49) and at Buffalo (17-41), which certainly has played into this line. What a lot of people are overlooking is that Ohio was decimated with injuries in both of those games. Getting a bye prior to this game against Bowling Green couldn't have come at a better time and we should see a number of those players who were banged up back on the field. 

It's worth noting that they played Buffalo better than the final score would indicate. Ohio actually outgained the Bulls 422 to 373. They were done in by a -4 turnover margin, which included 2 interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. I expect to see the Ohio team that started out 5-1 against their in-state rivals. 

Another factor here is the Bowling Green defense. The Falcons have struggled against any sort of capable offense this season. They come in ranked 109th against the pass (271.8 ypg) and that plays right into the strength of the Ohio offense, which ranks 41st in passing (257.5 ypg). On the flip side of this, the Bobcats are capable of at least making it difficult for the high-powered Bowling Green offense. Ohio ranks 48th in the country in total defense (370.3 ypg) and are 40th against the pass (198.4 ypg). 

The Bobcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 off a game where they allowed more than 40 points. We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Falcons. Home favorites at least 7 games into the season in a matchup involving two average rushing teams (3.5 to 4.3 yards/carry) are just 67-117 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a solid 64% 10-year system in favor of the Bobcats. Take Ohio! 

5* MAC Game of the Month on Northern Illinois +

Given Toledo is undefeated and ranked No. 20 in the country, I think we are seeing some great value here with Northern Illinois catching over a touchdown against a team that they have owned in recent meetings.

The Huskies may be just 5-3 on the season, but two of those loses came on the road against Power 5 teams in Ohio State and Boston College. Northern Illinois was right there with both of those teams, losing by a final of 13-20 as a 34-point underdog at Ohio State and 14-17 as a 3.5-point dog at Boston College. Their other loss came at Central Michigan 19-29 (-3 turnover margin) in a brutal spot. It was the Huskies 3rd straight game on the road in a 3 week stretch and came right after playing those two physical games against the Buckeyes and Eagles.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 43-16 (73%) ATS since 1992 when coming off a conference win by 10 or more points against an opponent off a road game where both teams scored 31 or more points.

Not to take anything away from Toledo and their 7-0 start, but this team opened the season with a couple of fortunate wins. They won 16-12 at Arkansas, despite getting outgained by 197 yards. The next week they edged out Iowa State 30-23 in overtime, despite being outgunned by 172 yards and also lucked out with the Cyclones missing a field that would have won the game in the final seconds of regulation. Had the Rockets lost those two games and came into this game at 5-2, I don’t think we would see a spread of more than 4.5 points, which shows you the value we are getting with the Huskies.

Statistically there’s not a lot that separates these two teams. Northern Illinois has the 36th ranked offense (448.5 ypg), while Toledo has the 24th ranked offense (471.0 ypg). The Huskies are 48th in total defense (369.1 ypg) and the Rockets are 47th (367.1 ypg). I actually think the Huskies offense is undervalued due to those two games against Ohio State and Boston College, who feature two of the best defenses in the country. I think Northern Illinois is going to be able to match Toledo’s offensive output and would not surprise me at all if they won this game outright.

The Huskies are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 road games in the month of November and 34-18 ATS in their last 52 when listed as a road underdog. Toledo on the other hand is just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. We also see a strong system in play backing Northern Illinois, as Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 43-16 (73%) ATS since 1992 when coming off a conference win by 10 or more points against an opponent off a road game where both teams scored 31 or more points. Take Northern Illinois! 

4* NCAAF Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Stanford -

Ever since losing their home opener at Northwestern 6-16, the Cardinal have been on an absolute tear and playing as well as any team in the country. That loss has served as a constant reminder of not looking past the opponent at hand and it's resulted in 6 straight wins and covers for Stanford. 

Any time a team has covered this many in a row, it can be a cause for concern, but it's not an issue here with Washington State coming in having covered 4 straight and 5 of 6 overall, including an outright win at Oregon as a 15.5-point underdog. It's easy to fall in love with a team like Washington State, who can light up the scoreboard, but you also have to take a good look at who their success has come against. 

Washington State's last 6 games have come against Rutgers, Wyoming, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona. Not one of those teams are worth a damn defensively. The best defense they played all season was their opener against FCS Portland State and they lost 17-24 at home. Stanford will gladly accept the challenge of slowing down the Cougars air attack and it's something they have done with plenty of success the last two years, holding the Cougars to 17 points in each contest. 

On the flip side of this, Washington State's defense is atrocious. The Cougars are giving up 204 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry against the run, while at the same time allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 67% of their attempts. They have allowed at least 31 points in all 4 conference games and will be going up against a Stanford offense that has scored 41+ in 4 of their last 5 and at least 31 in 6 straight. 

The Cardinal should score on just about every possession and I just don't see their offense being able to keep pace against a stingy Stanford defense that is only giving up 206 passing yards/game and a completion percentage of just 52.9%. 

The Cardinal are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 after 2 or more consecutive home wins, 34-19 ATS in their last 53 road games against strong passing teams that are completing 58% or more of their passes and and 37-18 ATS in their last 56 conference games. Washington St is 13-31 ATS in their last 44 after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Stanford!

3* Notre Dame/Temple Game Day Main Event on Temple +

Even with the Owls being a perfect 7-0 on the season with quality wins over Penn State (27-10), Cincinnati (34-26) and East Carolina (24-14), few are giving them any shot at all to win this game. It reminds me a lot of a game we saw a couple weeks ago involving another American Athletic team, where Memphis stunned Ole Miss at home 37-24 as a 10-point underdog.

I don’t know if Temple has quite what it takes to pull off the upset against a really good Notre Dame team, but I certainly think they are capable of keeping this game within double-digits. It’s a similar situation for Notre Dame as it was for Ole Miss. While they know the Owls are a good team, it’s hard for them to treat this same as they would a game against the likes of Clemson, USC or Stanford. By the time they realize this Temple team is for real, it may be too late.

There’s no concern with Temple not laying everything they have on the line in this game. This is arguably the biggest game in Owls history and it comes at home in a nationally televised night game. Those that haven’t had a chance to watch Temple are going to be impressed with how this team gets after it defensively. The Owls come in ranked 14th in the country in total defense, allowing just 307.0 ypg. They are exceptional against the run, allowing just 91.1 ypg (6th) and just 3 yards/carry.

While Notre Dame features a well-balanced offense, they have rushed for at least 178 yards in all but 1 game and that was a 22-24 loss at Clemson. Temple’s ability to take the Irish out of their comfort zone offensively could lead to some big turnovers and quick scores offensively.

You also have to note how Notre Dame hasn’t played all that great on the road. Their only other road game aside from the loss at Clemson was an early meeting at Virginia, which they were extremely fortunate to win. The Irish trailed 26-27 before connecting on a 39-yard touchdown pass with 12 seconds left to play. Temple on the other hand has been dominant at home, beating Penn State by 17, Tulane by 39 and UCF by 14.

Notre Dame is just 5-20 ATS in their last 25 games after covering the spread in at least 5 of their last 7 games and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games when coming off a contest in which they gained 7.25 or more yards/play. The Owls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record and 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their last game. Take Temple!

3* NCAAF Undervalued Underdog on NC State +

The public perception on the Tigers couldn’t be much higher coming off that shocking blowout win at Miami and there’s no doubt the books have inflated this line knowing that the vast majority of the tickets are going to come in on Clemson. I think it's created some exceptional value on NC State as a double-digit home dog.

While the Wolfpack haven’t been overly impressive in league play, losing at home to Louisville (13-20) and at Virginia Tech (13-28) before finally getting their first conference win last week against Wake Forest, NC State has a history of keeping it closer than expected and even pulling off some big upsets at home against ranked teams. They won 17-16 over No. 3 Florida State as a 16-point dog back in 2012. They covered at home a couple years ago against a Clemson team that was ranked No. 3 and last year against No. 1 Florida State, losing 41-56 as a 18-point home dog.

While the Tigers could do no wrong on the road last week against the Hurricanes, this is a team that only won by 3-points on the road at Louisville earlier this season. This is also a prime spot for Clemson to suffer a letdown. The Tigers just gave it everything they had at Miami and will find it difficult to not look ahead to next week’s huge showdown against Florida State at home, which figures to be the only game left on the schedule that could keep Clemson from going undefeated.

At the same time, this is a prime spot for NC State to lay it all on the line at home in a nationally televised game against one of the best teams in the country. The Wolfpack have the defensive playmakers to keep the Tigers in check. NC State comes into this contest ranked 3rd in the country in total defense (251.1 ypg) and are 2nd in the nation against the pass (144.0 ypg). 

Clemson is just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games off 5 or more consecutive wins, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. NC State is 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 home games against a team with a winning road record and a 28-13 ATS in their last 41 games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 17 or less points/game. Take NC State!

5* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia Tech -

I love the value we are getting here with Virginia at basically a pick'em against a Boston College team that can't score. The Hokies lost a heartbreaker 43-45 in 4 overtimes last week against Duke at home and have failed to cover the spread in 2 straight and 4 of 5 overall. I believe that has them way undervalued here against an Eagles team that needs their defense to play exceptional just to keep games competitive. 

Boston College's defense has played exceptional, but it's yet to translate to a conference win, as they are 0-5 in the ACC. They are 3-5 overall and 2 of those wins came at home against FCS opponents in Maine and Howard. You have to wonder how much longer the defense can continue to play their hearts out and keep losing. 

While I'm not expecting Virginia Tech's offense to light it up, they don't figure to need to score much to win this game. The Eagles are atrocious on offense, ranking 122nd in the country in total yards at 282.9 ypg. They managed just 79 total yards last week against Louisville. Virginia Tech isn't elite defensively by any means, but they are certainly capable of keeping the Eagles in check, especially considering Boston College's quarterback situation. Injuries and poor play have resulted in talk they may turn to walk-on freshman John Fadule. 

There is some positive to the Hokies offense here, as that was a very good Duke defense that they moved the ball on with a lot of success last week. In his first start back from injury, quarterback Michael Brewer threw for 270 yards and the Hokies offense didn't commit a single turnover. Brewer's absence for a good chunk of the season, is a big part of why this team is sitting at 3-5 and not 5-3 or 6-2. His ability to get the offense going through the air, is crucial against Boston College, as they don't give up much of anything on the ground. 

Lastly, this a huge revenge game for Virginia Tech. The Hokies have lost back-to-back close games in the series, including a painful 31-33 loss at home last year, where they blew a late 4th quarter lead. 

The Hokies are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 off 2 or more consecutive losses and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 40+ points. We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Eagles. Home teams that have gained 225 or less total yards in 2 straight games and are averaging 4.2-4.8 yards/play on the season are 3-23 ATS over the last 10 seasons when playing against a team with an average defense that allowing 4.8 to 5.6 yards/play. That's a 89% system in favor of the Hokies. Take Virginia Tech! 

4* NCAAF Situational ATS Game of the Week on Auburn +

Auburn is showing some great value here as a 7.5-point home dog against Ole Miss, who is all the sudden getting respect again after defeating Texas A&M at home last week 23-3 as a 5.5-point favorite. I wasn't the least big surprised to see the Rebels come away with a convincing win, as they are a much better team at home and were catching the Aggies in a great spot. Texas A&M was fresh off a heartbreaking loss to Alabama at home and were playing their first true road game of the season against a pissed off Ole Miss team that just got upset by Memphis. 

Given the Rebels' struggles on the road, I think we could see a big upset here with Auburn. The Tigers have been a major disappointment, but have continued to fight. They lost a 4-overtime thriller at Arkansas last week in a game many didn't given them a chance in. I think Auburn has quietly started to figure things out. They have put up 30+ points in 3 straight games and over 400 yards in each of their last two conference matchups. 

The biggest key here is the motivation that Auburn will find being a home underdog. It's the first time the Tigers have been getting points at home since their miracle win against Alabama in the season finale back in 2013. 

Ole Miss is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing less than 20 points. We also find a strong system in play backing the Tigers. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have failed to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games with a winning percentage of 51% to 60% on the season are 36-12 (75%) ATS over the last 10 years. Take Auburn!

4* NCAAF Situational ATS No Brainer on Utah St -

This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on the Aggies after last week's embarrassing 14-48 loss at San Diego State as a 4-point favorite, but I believe the situation sets up perfectly for a Utah State blowout. For starters, the Aggies are going to be extremely motivated to play well after getting their heads smacked last week. You also have to keep in mind that last week's game was a huge letdown spot coming off that emotional 52-26 home win over Boise State as a 7.5-point underdog. 

A motivated Utah State team should be all we need here to cover this spread, as I don't see Wyoming showing up for this game. The Cowboys laid it all on the line last week against Boise State in a closer than expected 14-34 loss as a 33.5-point underdog. I just don't see them bringing that same energy to the field on the road in back-to-back weeks, especially given the injury situation. 

Wyoming starting quarterback Cameron Coffman is doubtful and that's a big blow. Coffman was a big part of the offense, as he had completed 65.8% of his attempts with 15 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions. Backup Nick Smith hasn't played much, but has only completed 33% (7 of 21) for 53 yards on the season. It won't help that leading receiver Tanner Gentry is also expected to sit this one out. Keep in mind that Smith was the 3rd stringer behind Josh Allen on the QB depth chart coming into the season. 

The Cowboys will try and establish the running game early, but that plays right into the strength of the Utah State defense, which is allowing just 3.2 yards/carry on the season and a mere 2.1 ypc at home. This is going to lead to great field position all night for the Aggies and eventually Wyoming will have to throw and that should lead to some turnovers and more quick scores for the home team. 

Most importantly the Cowboys are not a good defensive team, as they are giving up 5.2 yards/carry and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.5% of their passes on the road. Don't be surprised if the defense throws in the towel early once they see the offense has no shot of keeping this game close. Keep in mind that with Coffman, this team was only averaging 14.5 ppg on the road this season. 

Wyoming is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 14 points or less and we have a great system in play on the Aggies. Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points who are averaging 4.8 to 5.6 yards/play against a conference opponent that is allowing 6.2 or more yards/play are 40-14 (74%) ATS since 1992. Take Utah State! 

4* Oregon/Arizona St NCAAF Late Night ATS No Brainer on Oregon

I think the value here is with Oregon. The Ducks clearly haven’t had the type of season they were hoping for, but a lot of their struggles have been a result of quarterback Vernon Adams either not playing (missed 3 games) or being limited because of injury.

After sitting out the Ducks’ two games against Colorado and Washington State, Adams returned in their big 26-20 win at Washington, who was coming off that big upset win at USC. He completed 14 of 25 attempts for 272 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. I think he’s poised to have an even bigger game against the Sun Devils, who rank 90th in the country in pass defense, allowing 251.6 ypg. Keep in mind that with Adams under center, the Ducks nearly upset Michigan State on the road earlier this season.

You could argue that this is a statement game for both teams. Oregon wants to show everyone that they are still a force to be reckon with in the Pac-12 North, while Arizona State has to be sick and tired of losing to the Ducks (lost 8 straight). I think the edge here goes to Oregon, as I think they are the better team with Adams healthy and there's some value to a team’s previous success against an opponent.

At the same time, I’m not all that convinced the Sun Devils are all that good. Their only real notable win came at UCLA, who clearly isn’t what they were made out to be. The other 3 victories were against the likes of Cal Poly, New Mexico and Colorado. They have looked just as bad as Oregon has at times, losing 14-42 at home to USC and most recently 18-34 at Utah. The big difference being the Sun Devils can’t blame their poor play on one of their best offensive players being injured.

Something else to keep in mind is that when the early college football odds were released this summer, Oregon was a 3.5-point favorite in this game. Given the circumstances with Adams, I don’t see the justification for moving the line 6.5-points.

Oregon is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games, 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games in Weeks 5 through 9. Arizona State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.

We also find a great system in play. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are averaging 31 or more points/game and coming off a contest that went under the total are 61-27 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Oregon! 

3* NCAAF Late Night ATS Bailout on USC -

Most people will be left scratching their heads at this line, as you would expect the undefeated and No. 3 ranked team in the country to be favored against an opponent who has lost 3 of their last 4 and just recently lost their head coach. Whenever a line looks to be way off, rarely does the obvious side end up covering the spread. Just look at Thursday's game where UCLA was a 3-point home favorite against a ranked Call team and they won in a blowout 40-24. Much like the Bruins, USC is a team that has fallen from the ranks after being as high as No. 6 in the country, so clearly there's some talent on this roster.

I happen to agree with the books listing USC as the favorite. The Trojans should have covered last week against Notre Dame. They outgained the Irish 590 to 476 in total yards and had a 31-24 lead going into the 4th quarter. While it wasn’t the final result they had hoped for, it was a much better overall effort than we had seen the previous week in their 12-17 home loss to Washington.

Utah is a great story and certainly deserving of their high ranking, but I can’t say I’m convinced that this is the third best team in the country. Chances are the Utes will stumble down the stretch and this looks like the ideal spot for them to get beat. Utah comes into this game off 3 straight big time conference games against Oregon, Cal and Arizona State. It’s extremely hard for a team to play their best football over a gauntlet 4-game stretch, especially when that 4th game comes on the road.

Despite their 3-3 record, I still think USC is one of the most talented teams in the country and one that will continue to play hard down the stretch for interim head coach Clay Helton. They certainly have the offensive fire-power to put up a big number here against a Utah defense that has lived off turnovers. The Utes have created 19 turnovers in 6 games and have a +12 turnover margin. Some regression is to be expected with those lofty numbers.

This is definitely a game where Utah’s defense could struggle. USC has one of the best offensive lines in the country and a high-powered passing attack that ranks 12th in the country at 337.3 ypg. Utah’s defense has been great against the run, but are 95th versus the pass (265.0 ypg). Cal’s Jared Goff torched them for 340 yards and had it not been for 6 Golden Bear turnovers, the Utes wouldn’t be undefeated and ranked where they are.

I know the Trojans didn’t cover last week off their loss to Washington, but it was the first time in 10 games where USC failed to beat the number after losing their previous contest. Not only will the Trojans be motivated off that loss, but they will be out for revenge against the Utes from last year’s last second loss. It’s also worth nothing that the Trojans aren’t completely out of the Pac-12 South race. If they can win out and have Utah lose one more game, they would be in prime position to win the division. Take USC!

5* MWC Game of the Year on Nevada -

I believe the books have made a huge mistake here with Nevada only laying a touchdown at home against Hawaii. A big reason why we are seeing such great value on the Wolf Pack, is they were less than impressive in a 21-28 road loss to Wyoming as a 6.5-point favorite. Nevada fell behind by 21-points and were able to finish off the late rally.

I actually think that poor showing works in our favor, as it's going to have the Wolf Pack extremely motivated to bounce back at home with a win. Head coach Brian Polian called out his team for their lack of focus and effort in last week's loss to the Cowboys, so you know Nevada is coming off a hard week of practice. With nothing to look ahead to with a bye on deck, I expect max effort here from the Wolf Pack.

While Nevada is in a prime spot to bounce back at home off an ugly loss, we find Hawaii in an awful spot here. The Warriors are coming off a crushing 27-28 loss at New Mexico, where they missed a 22-yard field goal that would have put them up 9 with less than 3 minutes to play. They then allowed a 80-yard 10-play touchdown drive to lose by 1. Keep in mind that's the same New Mexico team Nevada demolished at home 35-17 with a massive 517 to 273 edge in total yards.

Not only is Hawaii in a tough spot to bounce back from, but this will their 4th road game in the last 5 weeks. It's no easy task to play 4 of 5 on the road when you only have to travel a short distance, it's a near impossible to play up to your potential when you have to travel as far as Hawaii does for their road games.

Factor in Hawaii ranks 127th in the country in total offense and 97th in total defense (112th against the run) and Nevada should be able to pile on the points and win here by double-digits without much problem. Last time they hosted the Warriors back in 2012, they won 31-9 as a 6-point favorite. Overall they have won 4 straight in the series and each of those have come by at least 8 points.

The Wolf Pack are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games against bad offensive teams that average 4.5 or fewer yards/play and have won these by an averaging of 17 ppg. We also see that excellent rushing teams that average 4.8 or more yards/carry (Wolf Pack average 5.1 ypc) against bad rushing teams that average 3 to 3.5 yards/carry are 86-40 (68%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Hawaii!

4* NCAAF Situational ATS No Brainer on Indiana +

Some will argue that last week’s improbable win over Michigan was the break that the Spartans needed to get their season turned around and start playing up to their potential. While there’s no denying that gives Michigan State some much-needed confidence, I just don’t see them coming out with their best effort here against the Hoosiers.

Last week’s game against the Wolverines was the biggest of the season to date for the Spartans and one they certainly were extremely motivated for given they were over a touchdown underdog against a team they had dominated each of the previous two years. This sets them up for a classic letdown spot at home against a Indiana team that they haven’t had much trouble against in the past. The Spartans could also find themselves looking ahead to a much-needed bye week on deck.

The key thing here is that Indiana is a team that I think would have given Michigan State problems even if the Spartans weren’t in line for a letdown. The Hoosiers gave Ohio State all they could handle in a 27-34 home loss to the Buckeyes as a 21-point underdog. I look for a similar type of effort here from Indiana, especially coming off that crushing loss last week against the Scarlet Knights.

The Hoosiers also matchup well offensively against this Michigan State defense which has struggled against the pass. The Spartans are 70th in the country in pass defense, giving up 231.4 ypg. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 60.3% of their attempts against them and that’s saying something given the schedule Michigan State has faced. Indiana has the 25th ranked passing offense at 284.0 ypg and are averaging an impressive 8.4 yards/attempt. The Hoosiers also have a respectable running game that ranks 38th in the country at 194.9 ypg.

Clearly there’s some concern here with the Hoosiers defense not being able to stop the Spartans offense, but I haven’t been all that impressed with the Michigan State offense. The Spartans also have shown they are more than willing to call off the dogs once they build up an early lead, opening up the possibility of a back-door cover. I don’t think it gets to that point, as I see this being a 38-27 type of game.

Michigan State is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games with a total of 56.5 to 63 points, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win and 0-6 ATS this season when listed as a favorite. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record. We also find a strong system backing the Hoosiers, as home favorites at least 7 games into the season, who rushed for 100 or less yards in their last game and are playing a game where both teams average around 3.5 to 4.3 yards/carry are just 15-41 (27%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Indiana!

4* Clemson/Miami ACC Game of the Week on Miami +

With Clemson undefeated and ranked No. 6 in the country, the betting public is going to be all over the Tigers. Oddsmakers are well aware of that and have definitely inflated this line. To our advantage the public has followed suit and bet this line up over a touchdown, making this an even stronger play on the Hurricanes.

I always like to look for strong teams that are getting undervalued at home and that’s exactly what I feel like we have here with Miami. The Hurricanes only two losses both came on the road against quality opponents in Cincinnati and Florida State. The loss to the Bearcats doesn’t look great given Cincinnati’s record, but that’s a much better team their record would indicate and Miami was in a bad spot off a big win at home against Nebraska and Florida State on deck. That was also a weekday nationally televised night game, which is always a tough situation for the road team, especially in a hostile environment like Nippert Stadium. The Hurricanes responded with a near upset on the road against Florida State, as they had a 24-23 lead over halfway through the 4th quarter.

As for Clemson, they have a big 24-22 win at home against Notre Dame, but were very fortunate to leave that contest with a victory. The Tigers were outgained 432 to 296 in total yards and were +3 in turnover margin (4-1), yet still needed to stop a 2-point conversion to avoid going to overtime. Clemson’s also played 5 of their first 6 games at home, the lone exception being a 20-17 win at Louisville, who just lost by 20-points off a bye week on the road to Florida State.

The Tigers come into this game with some impressive defensive numbers, but a lot of that has to do with their schedule. The only legit offense Clemson has faced that can beat you with both the run and the pass was Notre Dame and they allowed the Irish to rush for 116 yards and throw for 321. That was at home in a nationally televised night game, when you except your defense to be at it’s best. Miami has a lot of weapons with a ton of speed on offense and one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Brad Kaaya. I think the Hurricanes are more than capable of matchup Clemson’s offense and potentially winning this game outright.

Fading Clemson after a long winning streak has been a successful strategy, as the Tigers are a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games off 6 or more consecutive wins and have lost these contest on average by 3.2 ppg (29.7 to 32.9). It’s also worth noting that Hurricanes' head coach Al Golden is 10-2 ATS in home games against strong offensive teams that are averaging 31 or more points/game and 14-3 ATS as a home underdog. Take Miami!

3* NCAAF Early Bird ATS Blowout on Arkansas -

The line here really says it all. Auburn comes into this game at 4-2 and off win and cover at Kentucky in a nationally televised weekday game. On the flip side we have Arkansas coming in at 2-4 and fresh off a 13-point loss at Alabama, which was their 4th loss in 5 games. The fact that the Razorbacks are laying near a touchdown, tells you what the books think about Auburn.

A closer look at the box score from the Tigers came against Kentucky, shows they were fortunate to win that game. Auburn was outgained on the game by nearly 100 yards (497-407) and Kentucky killed themselves with an interception on 1st and goal from the 8-yard line. The Tigers were also outgained the previous week in their 14-point win over San Jose State and are getting outgained on the season by 71.9 ypg.

Arkansas hasn't played up to their potential either, but this is a team that could also be a lot better than 2-4. The Razorbacks have either led or trailed by less than a touchdown in the 4th quarter of all 4 losses. They ended up losing by 13 on the road against Alabama, yet only trailed 7-10 going into the 4th quarter. They blew a 21-13 4th quarter lead in an overtime loss to a very good Texas A&M team and went on the road and beat Tennessee 24-20, who could very easily be undefeated. 

While both teams want a win here, Arkansas desperately needs a victory to have any hope of making a bowl game. The Razorbacks also will be out for revenge after last year's 21-45 loss at Auburn, where they were outscored 24-0 in the 2nd half.

Auburn simply isn't a good team. The Tigers rank 98th in the country in total offense and 94th in total defense. They are dead last in the SEC in total defense (426.2 ypg) and 2nd to last in scoring defense (25.7). Most importantly here against a Arkansas team that needs to be able to run the football to have success offensively, the Tigers are 97th in the country against the run, giving up 197.7 ypg. Offensively, Auburn isn't getting any big plays. They have 17 total plays all season of 20 or more yards. The only FBS team with fewer 20-yard plays is UCF, who is currently winless.

Auburn is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 overall. The Razorbacks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a SU loss and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Arkansas!

4* Memphis/Tulsa AAC Main Event on Tulsa +

I don’t think there’s any question that Memphis is the better team in this matchup and are certainly capable of beating Tulsa by more than 11-points, but you have to like the Golden Hurricanes getting double-digits at home given the situation. The Tigers are coming off their biggest win of the season and arguably the biggest win in school history. Needless to say, Memphis is primed for a letdown on the road with a short week of preparation. On the flip side of this, we get Tulsa motivated coming off a loss and playing with revenge from last year’s defeat to Memphis, plus the extra motivation of playing at home in a nationally televised game against a Top 25 team that is undefeated on the season.

For the Golden Hurricane to keep this one close enough to cover and potentially pull off the upset, they are going to need more out of an offense that only generated 17 points on the road last week against East Carolina. The good news is the offense played better than the 17-points they registered, as Tulsa had 463 yards of total offense (outgained the Pirates 463-382). East Carolina had a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown on the first possession of the game and things spiraled the wrong direction from there.

This Tulsa team is clearly capable of putting up points against quality teams, which they did in their 38-point effort against Oklahoma and 24-point showing at Houston. You also have to keep in mind that Memphis is not a great defensive team, which a lot of people are going to overlook after seeing they held Ole Miss to just 24 points. The Tigers come into this game ranked 103rd in the country in total defense, allowing 445.3 ypg. They have been especially bad against the pass, where they rank 119th (329.0 ypg). That plays right into the stength of the Tulsa offense, which ranks 9th in the country in passing at 354.5 ypg.

With so much energy and emotion spent in last week’s win against Ole Miss, it’s the defensive side of the ball where I really think Memphis is going to struggle to play up to their potential. Defense is all about hustle and determination and I just don’t see the focus or motivation being there on that side of the ball against Tulsa on short rest and on the road. If Tulsa can create a couple of turnovers on defense, this is definitely a game the Golden Hurricanes can win outright. I don’t necessarily think that will be the case, but I definitely like their chances of keeping this one within double-digits.

Home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points in conference games, who returned 8 or more offensive starters, including the quarterback, are 153-79 (66%) ATS since 1992. We also see that Tulsa is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning road record, while Memphis is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on Friday. Take Tulsa!

4* Temple/E Carolina ATS No Brainer on E Carolina -

Temple comes into this game undefeated at 6-0 and ranked No. 22 in the country, but are a 3-point underdog on the road against a 3-3 East Carolina team. That right there tells you a lot about what the books think of these two teams, as the betting public will be all over the Owls getting points in this spot.

While Temple has what looks like a big win at home of Penn St (27-10), the Nittany Lions aren't a great team and had major offensive line problems in that game. Their only other impressive win came at Cincinnati 34-26, but that was a very misleading victory. The Owls were outgained by 261 yards (557-296), as the benefited from 5 Bearcats turnovers. The rest of the schedule has been an absolute joke with their last 4 games coming against the likes of UMass, Charlotte, Tulane and UCF, who are a combined 5-20.

I just don't think the Owls are all they are made out to be. East Carolina's 3 losses have all come against quality teams in Florida, Navy and BYU and all 3 were on the road. The Pirates beat Virginia Tech at home 35-28 and made easy work of Tulsa at home last week 30-17.

I think East Carolina is showing great value here as a small home favorite. The Pirates are not only going to be motivated to put an end to Temple's perfect season in a primetime game on ESPN2, but they will be out for revenge from last year's 10-20 loss, where they coughed up 5 fumbles and lost despite a 432 to 135 edge in total yards and 30-10 advantage in first downs. Take East Carolina!

5* Sun Belt Tuesday ATS No Brainer on Lafayette +

Considering the public won last week on Arkansas State as 3.5-point road favorite last Tuesday, I think we are seeing the books inflate this line knowing that the public will be back on the Red Wolves. The thing to keep in mind with Arkansas State’s 18-point victory against South Alabama, is that was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. The Red Wolves actually trailed 20-31 early in the 4th quarter. They scored a touchdown to make it 28-31, before the Jaguars turned it over on 3 straight possessions, resulting in 21 points for Arkansas State.

This team could have very easily lost the game outright and had they we would be looking at a much smaller spread in this game. I know they didn’t have starting quarterback Fredi Knighten in their previous 3 games before he returned last week, but I have a lot of concern with this team only beating Idaho by 14-points at home.

Louisiana-Lafayette comes in with a losing record at 2-3, but all 3 losses are respectable. The Ragin’ Cajuns lost  at Kentucky (33-40) at home to Akron (14-35) and at Louisiana Tech (14-43). While the offense struggled to show up in a couple of those games, I don’t think they will have much trouble moving the ball here against the Red Wolves. Arkansas State is giving up 32.0 ppg against teams that combine to average just 24.3 ppg. What really stands out is the 35 points they gave up to Idaho and 31 to South Alabama. Idaho has the 83rd ranked offense in the country and South Alabama has the 92nd. Despite the tough schedule, Louisiana-Lafayette comes in ranked 44th in the country in total offense at 433.6 ypg.

I’ll admit I wasn’t big on Lafayette coming into the year with the loss of their No. 2 all-time leading passer in Terrance Broadway, who was an explosive dual-threat quarterback. Things didn’t look good early with Brooks Haack as the starter, but he’s since been replaced by Jalen Nixon. In his last start against Texas State, Nixon completed 22 of 29 passes for 238 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s also rushed for 128 yards and 3 scores on just 26 attempts. With Arkansas State having to pay extra attention to the Ragin’ Cajuns rushing attack led by Elijah McGuire (585 yards, 7 TDs, 6.0 ypc), Nixon should be able to create some big plays in the passing game against the Red Wolves’ 69th ranked pass defense (230.2 ypg).

This line states that Arkansas State is the much better team, but watching these two teams play and looking at the numbers, I don’t think that’s the case at all. I think this line should be closer to 3 or 4 and not approaching double-digits. It’s not out of the question that the Ragin’ Cajuns win here out, especially considering they have won each of the last 2 meetings. Take Lafayette +9!

4* NCAAF Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Oregon +

The betting public has thrown in the towel on the Ducks after last week's 38-45 double-overtime loss at home as a 15.5-point favorite against Washington State. I believe it's created an ideal spot to jump on Oregon as a 3-point dog against a Washington team that is being overvalued off their huge upset 17-12 upset win at USC last week.

While everyone else has quit on the Ducks, I'm confident Oregon will continue to play hard to finish out their season and they surely won't take kindly to being an underdog against a Huskies team they have won 11 straight against, with most of those coming by 20+ points. The Ducks showed great resilience after their embarrassing 42-point home loss to Utah, with a 41-24 win at Colorado and I expect them to do the same thing here against Washington.

The Huskies are certainly tired of losing to Oregon, but this is just a tough spot for them to play up to their full potential. Washington gave every ounce of energy they had in last week's game against the Trojans, which was an emotional game for a lot players, as it was their first chance to go up against the coach that recruited many of them in Steve Sarkisian. You also have to factor in the situation that was going on at USC with Sarkisian clearly not being 100% invested into his team. You also had the Trojans likely not giving the Huskies the respect they deserved coming off a big win at Arizona State and having an even bigger game on deck against rival Notre Dame.

For as bad as Oregon is perceived to be, the Ducks still come into this game ranked 11th in the country in total offense at 528.7 ypg and that's with starting quarterback Vernon Adams only playing 2 full games. There appears to be a good chance Adams returns this week after missing the last 2 and that's a bad thing for Washington. Last year as the starting quarterback for Eastern Washington, Adams torched the Huskies defense for 475 yards and 7 touchdowns on 31 of 46 passing. Even if Adams doesn't play here I still like the Ducks to win this game outright, it may just not be by double-digits. 

The Ducks are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 off a conference home loss, 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite. Take Oregon!

5* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on USC +

With all the negative publicity that’s surrounding USC with the loss of head coach Steve Sarkisian and the fact that the Trojans are coming off an ugly loss at home to Washington as a 17-point favorite, will have the betting public all over Notre Dame. Keep in mind the Irish are 5-1 ATS and already a team the public loves to back. I believe all of this has created some exceptional value with the Trojans.

It can go either way here for USC. They can pack it in after that loss to Washington or come out inspired against their rivals with everyone giving up on them. I believe it will be the latter, as I look for the Trojans to come out extremely motivated off that embarrassing loss at home and the fact that they can spoil Notre Dame’s hopes of making it into the 4-team playoff.

Keep in mind the Trojans bounced back in impressive fashion already this season. After a crushing 31-41 loss at home to Stanford, they came out the very next week and destroyed Arizona State on the road 42-14. It’s a theme that has carried over from last year, as the Trojans were 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their 4 games following defeat. One of those happened to be their 49-14 win over Notre Dame, which came after a 20-38 loss at UCLA that cost them the Pac-12 South title.

Notre Dame is definitely a much better team in 2015 than they were a year ago, but this is also a team that has played what turns out to be a pretty soft schedule. Their only real elite competition so far has been Clemson and they lost that game outright. USC is every bit as talented as the Tigers, which is why I think there’s too much value here with the Trojans catching a touchdown. Keep in mind that by being favored by 7-points at home, the oddsmakers are saying Notre Dame would be a 10-10.5-point favorite on a neutral field and I’m just not buying that at all.

Something to keep in mind with the Irish is their defensive numbers are greatly aided by their early schedule. Here’s a look at their opponents and where they rank nationally in total offense: Texas (104th), Virginia (98th), Georgia Tech (64th), UMass (27th), Clemson (48th) and Navy (76th). I don’t think I need to go into detail on why you can’t read anything into UMass being 27th, as the Minutemen are 1-4 and have faced the likes of Colorado, Temple, FIU and Bowling Green outside of their game against Notre Dame.

Even after last week’s poor showing, USC is 16th in the country in total offense, at 494.8 ypg. I look for the Trojans offense to have plenty of success here against the Irish and I'm expecting them to win this game outright. Take USC!

5* NCAAF SEC Game of the Month on Florida +

While the Gators lose their starting quarterback in Grier, the good news is they have a more than capable backup in Treon Harris, who has seen some action this season and started 6 games last year. In his limited action in 2015, Harris has competed 70.4% of his attempts (19-27) for 269 yards with 2 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. The good news is the injury has certainly inflated this line in favor of LSU, creating some great value here with Florida.

I believe Harris is good enough to step in and deliver here against a LSU defense that hasn’t been as impressive as their numbers would suggest. The Tigers rank 14th in the country in total defense, allowing just 291.4 ypg, but that’s a result of playing Mississippi State, Auburn, Syracuse, Eastern Michigan and South Carolina. They gave up 24 points last week to a below-average South Carolina offense, 3 touchdowns to Eastern Michigan (only led 30-22 going into the 4th) and 24 against Syracuse (only led 24-17 with less than 10 minutes to play).

I personally don’t think LSU is as good as advertised. What has got the Tigers to 5-0 is the play of star running back Leonard Fournette, who already has 1,022 yards and 12 touchdowns. Fournette’s ability to take over the games against the opponents LSU has faced so far, has covered up the lackluster play of starting quarterback Brandon Harris, who has thrown for just 610 yards and 4 touchdowns in 5 games. The Tigers rank 120th in the country in passing at 122.0 ypg.

Their lack of a passing threat hasn’t hurt them so far, but again that’s a result of the favorable schedule to start the year. I believe it’s going to come back to haunt them against a very good Florida defense that is playing with all kind of confidence right now. The Gators come in ranked 14th in the country against the run, allowing just 100.5 ypg and are allowing just 3.1 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.5. They may not completely stop Fournette, but they will slow him down and force Harris to make plays.

LSU is just 13-26 ATS in their last 39 home games against teams who are allowing 3.25 or less yards/carry and an identical 13-26 in their last 39 home games after 3 or more straight wins. The Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games and 5-0 in their last 5 against a team with a winning home record. Take Florida!

4* NCAAF Situational ATS No Brainer on Michigan St +

I believe the fact that the Spartans haven’t lived up to expectations and have yet to cover a spread, while Michigan has destroyed every team they have gone up against since that loss to Utah, has created some exceptional value here with Michigan State catching a touchdown in a rivalry game. While the Spartans might not be as good as they were made out to be coming into the season, this is still one of the most talented teams in the country.

One thing that gets overlooked with their 0-6 ATS start to the season, is that they have got out to a lot of big leads early in their games and coasted down the stretch. They had a 20-point lead early in a 7-point win over Western Michigan, 28-point lead in a 14 point win over Air Force, up 17-0 on Central Michigan in a 20-point win, 21-0 on Purdue in a 3-point win and were up 10 on Oregon going into the 4th quarter. They had a 24-14 lead last week against Rutgers and delivered when it mattered down the stretch with the game tied 24-24. Not playing their best against a bad team like Rutgers with this game on deck shouldn’t come as a huge surprise.

Michigan State’s offense hasn’t been able to play up to their lofty standards with so much hype around senior quarterback Connor Cook, but that doesn’t mean he’s not capable of delivering against the Wolverines. He completed 12 of 22 for 227 yards and a touchdown (no interceptions) last year against Michigan and it’s not like the Wolverines defense wasn’t good in 2014.

One thing to keep in mind with Michigan’s impressive defensive numbers, is the fact that they have faced a bunch of teams that almost exclusively rely on their running game, which has played right into the strength of their defense. Here’s a look at their 6 opponents and where they rank nationally in passing yards/game: Utah (97th), Oregon State (116th), UNLV (107th), BYU (26th), Maryland (109th) and Northwestern (115th).

While they held BYU to just 55 yards passing, keep in mind that was a horrible spot for the Cougars, who had just lost a heartbreaker against UCLA after two last second wins over Nebraska and Boise State. They simply had nothing left in the tank when they traveled to Michigan and it only made it worst that they had to go a ways east for an early start time.

I’m not saying the Spartans are a lock to win this game outright, but I like their chances of pulling off the upset.This to be a close game that comes right down to the wire. This also figures to be a low-scoring game, which makes the points that much more valuable. The Spartans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games off 2 straight conference wins. Take Michigan State!

3* NCAAF Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +

I think we are getting some great value here with the Aggies catching 4-points at home against an Alabama team that isn’t as strong as they have been in previous seasons. I think this line has been inflated due to what the Crimson Tide did in a similar spot on the road a couple weeks ago when they crushed Georgia 38-10 as a 1.5-point underdog.

I believe this Texas A&M team is a lot better than the the Bulldogs and are fully capable of winning this game outright. The Aggies have really been impressive in their 5-0 start, which includes a 38-17 win over Arizona State in the opener to go along with their 2 SEC wins. One of the benefits Texas A&M has had so far, is they haven’t left the state of Texas. They have played 3 home games and their two neutral site contests have been in Houston and Arlington. Not a lot of people are talking about the Aggies in the SEC West, but this very well may be the best team in the division and the entire SEC for that matter.

Offensively, Texas A&M has featured a well-balanced attack that comes into this game ranked 20th in the country in total offense at 480.4 ypg. They are 22nd in passing (292.4 ypg) and 47th in rushing (188.0 ypg). Their style is a perfect fit for taking advantage of a Alabama defense that is best suited to stop teams that rely on running the football right at you. The Crimson Tide have struggled in the past against spread offenses and we saw them give up 43 points and 433 yards of total offense earlier this season against a similar style offense in Ole Miss.

Not only do I think the Aggies will be able to move the ball against Alabama, but I think there defense is going to be able to slow down an Alabama offense that is not as good as previous years. The Crimson Tide have a strong running game with Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake, but starting quarterback Jake Coker has struggled. He’s thrown 6 interceptions on the season and is only averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. Texas A&M’s defense is greatly improved under first year defensive coordinator John Chavis, who came over from LSU. Chavis did an excellent job slowing down Alabama with the Tigers and will have this defense ready to go with 2 fulls weeks to prepare.

If the Crimson Tide defense struggles to contain Texas A&M's offense, this one has the potential to get out of hand. Either way, I expect the Aggies to keep this close enough to cover if they don’t pull off the win. Take Texas A&M!

4* Oklahoma/K-State ATS Heavy Hitter on Oklahoma -

After an embarrassing showing last week in a 17-24 loss to rival Texas as a 16-point favorite, where Oklahoma didn't come close to matching the level of intensity of the Longhorns, I'm expecting a big bounce back performance on the road against a Kansas State team that is coming off a crushing 45-52 loss at home to TCU, where the Wildcats blew an 18-point half-time lead.

While Kansas State certainly gave the Horned Frogs a bigger fight than a lot of people expected, they were dominated 543 to 385 in total yards, despite holding the ball for twice as long as TCU. It's the third straight week in which the Wildcats have been outgained. They were -139 in total yards against Oklahoma State and -96 at home against Louisiana Tech. Prior to last week's ugly performance against Texas, in which they were outgained by 90-yards, Oklahoma had outgained each of their previous 4 opponents by an average of 158.8 ypg.

I'm just not buying this Kansas State being all that good. They come in ranked 91st in the country in total offense (370.0 ypg) and 70th in total defense (395.8 ypg). Oklahoma is better in both areas of the game, as the Sooners are 22nd in total offense (473.0 ypg) and 49th in total defense (364.0 ypg).

It's also worth noting that this Oklahoma team seems to play their best in true road games. They won on the road against a very good Tennessee team earlier this year 31-24, improving to 14-2 in true road games over the last 4 seasons.

The Sooners have won each of their last 4 visits to Manhattan by at least 10 points and will be extra motivated for this trip after last year's 30-31 loss at home, where Oklahoma gave up a pick six early, missed an extra point that would have tied it and missed a 19-yard field goal on their last possession that would have won the game.

The Sooners are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 following a loss, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 after scoring less than 20 points and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Oklahoma!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on Oklahoma/K-State OVER

These two teams combined for 61 points in last year's 31-30 Kansas State upset win at Oklahoma. It was the 6th time in the last 7 meetings where these two teams eclipsed the total set by the books. Some of the highest scoring games during this stretch have come when the two teams play in Manhattan. The combined score of the last 3 games between these two teams at Kansas State are 72, 75 and 93. I feel like the books have set a drastically low total here due to Oklahoma only scoring 17 points last week against a Texas defense that isn't considered to be very good.

The thing you have to keep in mind with the Sooners game last week against the Longhorns is that's  huge rivalry game, so there's going to be max effort defensively, especially from the underdog. It was clear the Longhorns wanted that game more. Coming off that ugly showing offensively, Oklahoma is going to be extremely motivated to score early an often here against the Wildcats. Keep in mind the Sooners had scored at least 31 points in each of their previous 4 games and after only gaining 278 total yards against Texas are still ranked 22nd in the country in total offense at 473.0 ypg.

Kansas State looks like the perfect team for Oklahoma to get their offense back on track. The Wildcats have allowed 33 to Louisiana Tech, 36 to Oklahoma State and 52 to TCU (Horned Frogs only had 17 points at the half) in their last 3 games. Kansas State's defense ranks 110th in the country against the pass (290.6 ypg), while Oklahoma has the 14th ranked passing offense (328.8 ypg), so the Sooners will be able to play to their strength and that should lead to a lot of big plays.

I also expect the Wildcats to do their fair share of scoring in this one, whether it comes early or late when the game is out of hand (Snyder teams don't quit). Kansas State has scored at least 30 points in every game and that includes 34 on the road against a solid Oklahoma State defense. The Wildcats strength offensively is their ground attack, which is averaging 180.2 ypg. The Sooners are 91st in the country against the run (190.4 ypg), so K-States offense should be able to play to their strength as well.

OVER is 13-3 in Kansas State's last 16 games after playing in a contest where 80 or more combined points were scored, 14-2 in their last 16 after being outgained by 175+ yards and 7-2 in their last 9 against a team with a winning record. OVER is also 10-3-1 in Oklahoma's last 14 conference games, 10-4-1 in their last 15 road games against a team with a winning home record and 7-1 in their last 8 following a loss. Take the OVER!

5* Cinci/BYU NCAAF ATS No Brainer on Cincinnati +

I think we are seeing some great value here with the Bearcats catching almost a touchdown against a banged up BYU team. Regardless if it's Kiel or Moore at QB for Cincinnati this is a great spot for the Bearcats to cover. Kiel hasn’t played since suffering a head injury in Cincinnati’s 46-53 loss at Memphis and red-shirt freshman Hayden Moore has played well in his absence. Moore threw for 557 yards and 4 touchdowns in relief of Giel against Memphis and 279 and 2 scores in the Bearcats win over Miami.

Either way, whoever head coach Tommy Tuberville decides to go with, Cincinnati’s offense is in good shape. The Bearcats have been an offensive juggernaut so far this season and are currently ranked 5th in the country in total offense at 586.8 ypg. Cincinnati should have no problem moving the ball here against a BYU defense that ranks just 60th against the run (155.8 ypg) and 90th against the pass (244.8 ypg).

While the Cougars have played the tougher schedule and have a couple of big wins against both Nebraska and Boise State, they could just as easily be 2-4 right now. BYU beat both Nebraska and Boise State on a late Hail Mary touchdown pass. On the season the Cougars are only outgaining opponents by 7.5 yards/game.

The Bearcats’ offense will be getting back wide outs Chris Moore and Johnny Holton from injury, as well as running back Mike Boone. BYU has already lost their star duo of quarterback Taysom Hill and running back Jamaal Williams for the season. They have since lost their top backup running back in Adam Hine and new starting quarterback Tanner Magnum is dealing with a hamstring injury that figures to limit him to some degree in this game.

You also have to keep in mind that Cincinnati has a big scheduling advantage here coming off their bye, which has given them 2 full weeks to prepare for the Cougars. Not only do I think the Bearcats have the talent to cover this spread, but I like their chances of winning this game outright.

Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a Friday and 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 following a SU win. BYU is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 off a game where they failed to cover and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the American Athletic Conference. Take Cincinnati!

3* UCLA/Stanford Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER

Since opening the season with a 6-point effort on the road against Northwestern, the Cardinal’s offense is averaging 42.3 ppg over their last 4 contests. They have played some easy competition in 3 of those 4 games, but the 41 points they hung at USC is a strong indicator that this offense is for real.

Either way, Stanford should have no problem moving the ball here against a depleted UCLA defense that is without 3 of their best players in linebacker Myles Jack, defensive linemen Eddie Vanderdoes and corner Fabian Moreau. While the Cardinals offense ranks in the top 50 in both rushing (209.8 ypg, 27th) and passing (242.8 ypg, 49th), their success relies on their ability to get the running game going (only 85 yards rushing in loss to Northwestern). UCLA’s run defense has given up 353 yards to Arizona and 192 to Arizona State in their last 2 games. Last year the Cardinal put up 202 yards on the ground and I just don’t see the Bruins having an answer here for Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey.

On the flip side of this, I think the UCLA offense is going to be able to move the ball and score their fair share of points in this one. Stanford’s defense is strong, but it’s not dominant. The only offense they have faced close to what UCLA brings to the table is USC and they gave up 427 yards and 31 points to the Trojans. They also allowed 330 yards to Northwestern, with 225 of those coming on the ground and over 300 yards to both Oregon State and Arizona. UCLA’s offense ranks 31st in the country at 454 ypg and are well balanced with 199.4 ypg on the ground (37th) and 254.6 ypg through the air (38th).

I believe the fact that UCLA has seen 4 of their 5 games go under the total and Stanford being perceived to be better defensively than they actually are, this total has been set a little lower than it should be. Both offenses are loaded with playmakers and are going to be able to keep the opposing defenses off balance with their ability to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. I could see both of these scoring into the 30’s with a similar type score to what we saw when Stanford played USC, which only had a total of 50.5 and the two combined for 72. Take the OVER!

4* Auburn/Kentucky SEC Vegas Insider on Kentucky +

I don’t think people realize just how good this Kentucky team is. The Wildcats only loss on the season is a 9-14 defeat at home to Florida as a 3.5-point underdog. The Gators only outgained Kentucky by 4-yards and were fortunate to hold the Wildcats to 3 field goals and no touchdowns. I believe that Florida team the Wildcats barely lost to is a lot better than the Auburn team they will be hosting on Thursday.

With Auburn sitting at 0-2 inside SEC play and not playing with a lot of confidence in 2015, I question just how motivated this team will be going into Thursday’s matchup against Kentucky, who has been a bottom feeder in the SEC East for several years now. The Wildcats on the other hand are on the rise under head coach Mark Stoops and will certainly be motivated to showcase their talents in a nationally televised game on ESPN. Even more so, when they find out they are an underdog on their home field against a team that has looked as poorly as Auburn.

The fact that Kentucky only won by 7-points at home against Eastern Kentucky will certainly scare some people away from backing the Wildcats, but keep in mind that Kentucky was without their best rusher in Stanley Williams, who is averaging 7.3 yards/carry on the season. It’s also worth noting that Eastern Kentucky’s defense is led by former Ohio State star Noah Spence and he was too much for the Wildcats to handle without a threat of the run. Auburn comes in ranked 105th in the country against the run, allowing 209.6 ypg. The ability to run the ball is going top open up things for one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Patrick Towles.

Adding even more value here is a number of key trends backing a fade of Auburn. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on Thursday, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a SU win. Take Kentucky!

5* Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month on Arkansas State -

The Red Wolves won last year’s game by 35 points with a 400-201 edge in total yards. I think we are getting some great value here with Arkansas State laying less than a touchdown. Keep in mind the Red Wolves returned 15 starters and were a popular pick to win the Sun Belt, while South Alabama only returned 5 starters and were expected to finish in the bottom half of the conference.

Part of the reason I think we are seeing some value here with Arkansas State, is they come in having failed to cover each of their last two games. While they were dominated at Toledo, they should have covered last time out against Idaho, as they outgained the Vandals 521 to 338. Idaho got a 20-yard interception return for a TD and scored two late garbage touchdowns after Arkansas State built up a 49-21 lead.

The thing to keep in mind is they were without starting quarterback Fredi Knighton, who has missed the last 3 with a groin injury. Knighton has been upgraded to probable and all signs point to him being the starter against South Alabama. Knighton was a big part of last year’s blowout win over the Jaguars, as he threw for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns, while also rushing for 80 yards and a score. He should have his way again, as South Alabama only returned 2 of their top 10 tacklers and lost one those 2 to a foot injury that will have him sidelined for this game.

South Alabama does have a 34-27 overtime win on the road against San Diego State, which looks impressive considering they were a 17.5-point underdog. However, the Aztecs aren’t a great team and not near the offensive threat as Arkansas State, plus that was a tough spot for the San Diego State coming off a ugly road loss to Cal and likely looking ahead to another big road game at Penn State the following week. Losing by 37 to Nebraska and 50 at home to NC State are pretty good indicators that this team is down from last year. They only lost by 32 at home to a very good Mississippi State in 2014.

Red Wolves are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record and 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 after gaining more than 450 total yards in their last contest. South Alabama is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win. Take Arkansas State!

3* NCAAF Late Night ATS Blowout on Michigan St -

The Spartans have been prime fade material to start the season, as they have opened up 0-5 ATS, despite their perfect 5-0 start. While Michigan State is still highly rated, the public love with them is no longer their, especially after watching them barely hold on for a 24-21 win at home against Purdue and the win over Oregon looking worse after the Ducks 42-point home loss to Utah.

I believe now is the time to take advantage of a soft line here with the Spartans laying less than 2 touchdowns against a bad Rutgers team. One they beat last year 45-3 as a 22-point home favorite. The Scarlet Knights have been decimated with injuries and players being dismissed, especially in the secondary where they lost their only returning starter in corner Nadir Barnwell and both projected started safeties (7 total defensive backs either hurt or dismissed). This is a recipe for disaster going up against a talented quarterback like Connor Cook.

The Spartans are desperate to get their offense going with a stingy Michigan defense on deck. The need some momentum on this side of the ball and I believe Rutgers is the perfect opponent to get on track. The Scarlet Knights gave up 28 points and 471 yards of total offense in their only Big Ten game so far against Penn State and the Nittany Lions offense has been a complete mess. Rutgers also only beat Kansas by 13-points at home and that's a bad sign given how bad the Jayhawks are this year.

While a lot of Michigan State's games against lessor quality opponents have ended up being closer than expected, they have opened up some big leads in almost every game. They had a 20-point lead early in a 7-point win over Western Michigan, 28-point lead in a 14 point win over Air Force, up 17-0 on Central Michigan in a 20-point win, 21-0 on Purdue in a 3-point win and were up 10 on Oregon going into the 4th quarter. It's only a matter of time before they put a complete game together and I believe this is the week. 

Spartans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games after scoring 20+ in the 1st half of 2 straight games, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after playing a conference game an 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after 2 or more straight up wins. Rutgers last game was against Kansas and the Scarlet Knights are just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 after outgaining an opponent by 125 or more yards and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after outrushing an opponent by 200 or more yards. Take Michigan State!

4* NCAAF Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Miami +

While the Seminoles come into this game undefeated and ranked inside the Top 15 in the country, I haven’t been all that impressed with what I have seen from them in their first 4 games of the season. After putting up 59 points on 636 yards of total offense in their 59-16 win over Texas State in the opener, the offense has struggled to get going. Their next best scoring output was 34 at home against South Florida and that game was just 7-7 at the half. They managed just 14 at Boston College and 24 last week against Wake Forest, who had allowed 31 to Indiana and 30 to Syracuse.

The offense could be in some serious trouble if sophomore running back Dalvin Cook isn’t able to go on Saturday. Cook suffered a left leg injury that knocked him out of last week’s game against the Demon Deacons and is listed as questionable. Keep in mind they already lost backup Mario Pender to a lung injury. If Cook can’t go, they would likely have to rely on Johnathan Vickers, who managed just 33 yards on 10 carries in place of Cook last week against Wake Forest.

Losing on the road to Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite doesn’t look good on paper, but that’s a very good Bearcats team that the Hurricanes lost to and chances are they didn't given them the respect they should have with this game on deck. Despite losing by double-digits, Miami was only outgained by 19 yards. The Hurricanes certainly have the offensive fire-power to hang with the Seminoles. Miami comes in ranked 26th in total offense at 460.8 ypg. While Florida State ranks 12th in total defense, that’s largely due to the talent they have played. This is without question the best offense they have faced in 2015.

The other big factor here is revenge. Miami has to be sick and tired of losing to the Seminoles and that frustration has only grown watching their in-state rivals win three straight ACC titles and a national championship in 2013. I think this could very well be their year to put an end to their losing streak to Florida State, but worse case they should keep it close enough to cover the 7.5-point spread.

Adding value to this is a great system that favors a play on the Hurricanes off that loss to the Bearcats. Conference road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a favorite are 173-105 (62.2%) ATS since 1992. It’s also worth noting that Florida State is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games off a SU win. Take Miami!

4* NCAAF Situational Undervalued Underdog on Navy +

The public perception is that Notre Dame gave away the game last week against Clemson, as they outgained the Tigers 437-296 and committed an uncharacteristic 4 turnovers. Knowing that the public won't be afraid to back the Irish off that loss, the books have inflated this line here against the Midshipmen, creating great value with Navy as a 2 touchdown underdog.

What people are overlooking is the huge letdown that comes with losing a game like that, especially with that being such an important game for Notre Dame's playoff hopes. If you remember back to last year, they started out 6-0 before a heartbreaking 27-31 loss to Florida State and went just 1-4 to close out the regular season.

I also don't think people realize just how talented this Navy team is. The Midshipmen are 4-0 and while they have played a soft schedule, they have taken care of business with all 4 wins coming by double-digits. I was really impressed with their performance on the road against Connecticut, who has a very good run defense. Navy put up 28 points and rushed for 303 yards. Their ability to run the ball is critical with this spread, as they are going to eat up a ton of clock and limit the possessions for Notre Dame's offense.

Each of the last two years, Navy has played Notre Dame tough. They lost 34-38 at Notre dame as a 16-point dog in 2013 and 38-48 on a neutral field last year as a 14-point dog (Navy actually led 31-28 going into the 4th quarter). Midshipmen still have electric quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who has accounted for 6 touchdown against them the last two years. I'm confident he does enough to keep Navy in it and potentially pull off the upset.

Notre Dame is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 coming off a loss and just 17-38 in their last 55 when coming into a game having won 4 of their last 5. Midshipmen on the other hand are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games when listed as a dog of 10.5 to 14 points. Take Navy!

3* NCAAF Oddsmakers Error on Syracuse +

The Orange should not be an underdog here against South Florida. This line is essentially telling us that if these two teams met on a neutral field, Syracuse would only be a 1-2 point favorite. The Orange are 3-1 with the only loss coming against undefeated and currently No. 7 LSU. South Florida is 1-3 and their only win coming against FCS foe Florida A&M in the season opener.

The most telling game for me when it comes to South Florida is a 17-35 loss on the road against Maryland, who is not any good. The Terrapins have no passing game (45.3% completion rate) and have committed 17 turnovers in 5 games. USF actually won the turnover battle against Maryland and still lost by 18 points.

South Florida is one-dimensional offensively, as they rank 28th in rushing (210.5 ypg) and 100th in passing (166.3 ypg) and that's with them gaining 312 yards on the ground against Florida A&M. This plays right into the strength of the Syracuse defense, which ranks 17th against the run (102 ypg) and that's with having played the best running back in the country in Leonard Fournette.

The Orange don't have a great offense by any means, but were able to put up 24 points on LSU and did so without their top available quarterback in Dungey. I look for Syracuse to have the much easier time moving the ball and the Orange should have great field position throughout this game with the Bulls struggling to make first downs.

South Florida is 10-25 ATS in their last 35 home games after playing a conference game, 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games, 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games with a total set between 42.5 and 49 points and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Orange are 11-5 in their last 16 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record. Take Syracuse!

4* SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee +

It can be difficult to back a team like Tennessee, who has done a better job of finding a way to lose close games late than pull out the win, but I just think the situation here presents some great value with the Volunteers. If you can look past the Volunteers late game collapses against Oklahoma and Florida, you find a team that should have started out 4-0 and maybe that momentum ends up fueling a win last week against Arkansas.

At the time the Volunteers near upset of Florida on the road didn’t seem like that big of a deal, but that all changes after watching the Gators dismantle Ole Miss 38-10 at home this past Saturday. Tennessee not only had a 13-point lead against Florida, but they put up 419 yards of total offense on a Gator defense that held the Rebels scoreless well into the 3rd quarter.

After losing the way they did to Florida, I wasn’t all that surprised to see Tennessee come out flat against a Razorbacks team that was coming in off 3 straight losses. The Volunteers were emotionally drained from that defeat to the Gators and were likely looking ahead to this showdown against Georgia, as they desperately want to put an end to their losing streak to the Bulldogs. Now we find Georgia in a similar spot off a crushing loss with Tennessee looking to save their season with a win.

The Bulldogs invested so much energy into last week’s game against Alabama, only to get embarrassed on their home field by 28-points. It’s going to be extremely difficult for Georgia to muster up the energy needed to go on the road and take on a highly motivated Volunteers team, who is a lot better than their 2-3 record would indicate.

The Bulldogs are a mere 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring less than 20-points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Volunteers have covered each of the last 3 meetings in the series and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 overall. Take Tennessee!

5* Big Ten Game of the Month on Northwestern +

This is just too many points for Michigan to be laying at home against a very good Northwestern team. Both of these teams feature dominant defenses and not a lot of points are expected with a total for this one at just 35 (makes the points that much more valuable). Largely due to all the attention that was drawn to the Wolverine with the hiring of Harbaugh, everyone is wanting to jump on the Michigan bandwagon after 4 straight blowout wins over Oregon St, UNLV, BYU and Maryland. BYU is respectable, but keep in mind that was an awful spot for the Cougars coming off a heartbreaking loss to UCLA and having to travel east for an early start time.

At the same time, no one seems to want to give this Northwestern team any respect, despite the fact that this team has a 16-6 home win over a very good Stanford team and a 19-10 win on the road against an underrated and well-coached Duke team. The Wildcats have been every bit as impressive as the Wolverines defensively and should be able to keep a one-dimensional Michigan offense in check. Wolverines rank 90th in passing (192.2 ypg) and 34th in rushing (201.4 ypg). Keep in mind those rushing numbers are greatly aided by their easy schedule the last 4 weeks.

Northwestern has the 14th ranked rushing offense at 248.8 ypg and that's with going up against two solid run defenses in Stanford and Duke. The Wildcats are 25th against the run (117.4 ypg) and 7th against the pass (130.0 ypg). I believe Northwestern will be able to force Michigan to throw more than they would like and we have seen already this season that Wolverines quarterback Jake Rudock will make some bad throws, as he has just 5 touchdowns to 6 interceptions.

Another key factor here that can't be overlooked is the fact that Michigan has an even bigger game on deck against in-state rival Michigan State. You can say what you want about not looking ahead against a ranked opponent in Northwestern, but the Spartans ran up the score on the Wolverines last year and I can guarantee you they haven't forgot about it.

Michigan is 17-32 in their last 49 after 2 or more consecutive covers, 5-15 ATS in their last 20 after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games and 4-11 ATS off a SU win by more than 20 points. Wildcats on the other hand are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after allowing less than 20 points last time out and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 after covering their last game. Take Northwestern!

5* MAC Game of the Month on C Michigan +

I believe we are seeing a ton of value here with Central Michigan catching a touchdown in this in-state MAC showdown. The Chippewas are just 2-3 on the season, but their 3 loses have all come against power 5 opponents in Oklahoma St (13-24) @ Syracuse (27-30) and Michigan State (10-30). The were in all 3 of those games late. They led Oklahoma St 13-10 in 2nd half, lost in OT to Syracuse and only trailed Michigan St 10-17 going into the 4th quarter.

Western Michigan is just 1-3. While 2 of their 3 losses came against Michigan State and Ohio State, they got beat badly 17-43 at Georgia Southern. That loss to Georgia Southern is especially concerning, as that was during the first two games of the season when the Eagles were without starting quarterback Kevin Ellison due to a suspension. The same Georgia Southern team that lost 44-0 to West Virginia without Ellison in Week 1.

I know the Broncos are playing at home and coming off a bye, but I don't see near enough here to where they should be laying a touchdown, especially given this being a rivalry game and the Chippewas out for revenge from losing at home last year 20-32, a game they let get away after opening up a 14-0 lead in the 1st quarter.

As you noticed, both teams played Michigan State in non-conference play. Central Michigan actually outgained the Spartans 340-324 and that was on the road. Western Michigan was outgained 383-452 at home.

Both of these teams are built offensively on their passing attack, as both have talented and experienced quarterbacks under center. The key will be who can get the running game going and I have to give the edge to Central Michigan. The Chippewas are only giving up 4.1 ypc having faced 3 power 5 teams, while Western Michigan is allowing 6.1 ypc and faced just 2 power 5 teams.

Central Michigan is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 coming off a win and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games. Western Michigan on the other hand is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after losing 3 of their last 4. Not only do I think the Chippewas have what it takes to cover this spread, but I like their chances of winning outright. Keep in mind the road team has won 3 straight in the series. Take Central Michigan!

5* NC State/Va Tech ACC Vegas Insider on Va Tech -

It’s not been the start to the 2015 season that Virginia Tech had hoped for, but a lot of that has to do with the Hokies losing starting quarterback Michael Brewer in the opener against Ohio State. Brewer has been cleared to practice and is listed as probable. According to head coach Frank Beamer, he's looked good in practice, as he was quoted on Tuesday saying "It didn't surprise me how well he threw."

Getting Brewer back is huge, as backup Brandon Motley is more of a run-first quarterback who needs success on the ground to have any hope of hurting a defense with his arm, which is why I wasn't surprised that he struggled last week at home against a stingy Pitt run defense. Brewer completed 11 of 16 for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns in just 1 half against a very good Ohio State defense before getting hurt. He brings a whole new dynamic to this offense and I don't think it's getting enough respect here with this line.

Back-to-back losses to East Carolina and Pittsburgh certainly don’t look good, but both of those games could have easily gone the other way. This is still a very talented Virginia Tech team and one that I believe is poised to bounce back with one of their best efforts of the season at home in a nationally televised night game on ESPN. You simply can’t underestimate the power of the homefield advantage for these weekday games, especially with a team like the Hokies who desperately need a win to get their season back on track.

One of the reasons that we aren’t seeing the Hokies favored by more, is the fact that NC State is 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS. While that will draw some attention from bettors, their 4-0 start proved to be fools gold, which shouldn't have been a huge surprise given their cupcake schedule to start. The Wolfpack were outplayed from the get go last week at home against a Louisville team that is down from previous years. NC State’s high-powered offense that had scored at least 35-points in each of their first 4 games, was held to 13 points with a mere 228 yards of total offense and 11 first downs. Keep in mind they started out 4-0 in non-conference play last year and proceeded to lose 4 straight inside conference play.

You might think this is a good matchup for NC State looking at the numbers, they rank 25th in the country in rushing at 216.2 ypg and will be going up against a Virginia Tech defense that ranks 98th against the run (197.4 ypg). While the Hokies run defense isn’t dominant, most of the damage came in the opener against Ohio State, where they allowed 360 yards. In their 4 games since, Virginia Tech is only giving up 3.9 yards/carry. Another reason the rush numbers aren’t great, is teams have to run because of how good their secondary is. The Hokies rank 17th in the country, allowing just 158.0 ypg through the air.

Defensively the Wolfpack look like they have a dominant defense, but that’s more of a result of that cupcake schedule to start the year. NC State ranks 6th in the country against the run (80.2 ypg), despite giving up 203 yards on 45 attempts (4.5 yards/carry) last week against Louisville. The fact they gave up those kind of numbers to the Cardinals at home and are still ranked in the top 10 against the run, speak volumes to the level of competition they faced in their first 4 games.

Virginia Tech is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after getting outgained by 125 or more total yards in their previous contest and 47-17-2 ATS in their last 60 after gaining less than 275 total yards. NC State on the other hand is 8-19 ATS in their last 27 road games after winning 3 of their previous 4 and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following a SU loss. Take Virginia Tech!

4* USC/Washington Pac-12 Game of the Week on Washington +

I believe there’s quite a bit a value with Washington as a 3-score underdog against the Trojans. Huskies head coach Chris Petersen has a history of getting his team to perform above expectations when he’s had two or more weeks to prepare for an opponent, as he’s gone 19-3 SU in this spot over his career. Washington's players are also going to be highly motivated here, going up against their form coach.

While most of Petersen's success came in his tenure with Boise State, last year the Huskies only bye week came prior to a road game against California, which followed a tough 13-20 loss at home to Stanford. Washington came out and dominated the Golden Bears 31-7 as a 3-point underdog.

While USC’s Steve Sarkisian also has a nice track record coming off a bye, it’s worth noting that the Trojans were a 14-point home favorite last year against Cal in a Thursday night game off a bye and won by a final of just 38-30. USC has also struggled in the week prior to playing Notre Dame, who they face on the road next Saturday. I don’t think the Huskies will have enough here to pull off the upset, but I like their chances of keeping it close enough to cover.

One thing to keep in mind with the Trojans 42-14 win over Arizona State last week, is USC barely won the yardage battle 455-454 and the Sun Devils had a 26-18 edge in first downs. Overall the USC defense hasn’t been as good as you would think, considering they have allowed 14 or fewer points in 3 of their 4 games this season. The Trojans rank 69th against the run (164.0 ypg) and are 88th against the pass (246.0 ypg).

On the flip side of this, Washington’s defense has played better than expected. The Huskies are only giving up 2.6 yards per carry against the run and opposing quarterbacks are only completing 56.1% of their attempts. Overall, Washington ranks 28th in total defense, allowing just 321.0 ypg, which is an impressive number considering they have played two good offenses in Boise State and Cal.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the Huskies defense has been very good at making teams work their way down the field, as they are very disciplined. USC has lived off the big plays and could be a bit out of the comfort zone having to complete a lot of 3rd downs, something they have only done at a 43% rate so far this season.

Washington is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 off an upset loss as a home favorite and Petersen is 23-9 ATS in road games against strong passing teams who have completed 58% or more of their pass attempts. USC on the other hand is just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 off a SU win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win by more than 20 points. Take Washington!

4* NCAAF Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Boise St -

This game has blowout written all over it. Hawaii is an awful road team, especially under head coach Norm Chow. The Rainbow Warriors are 1-19 away from home, largely due to the long travel, under Chow and the only win came last year against a San Jose State team that finished the season 3-9. Hawaii has played 2 road games so far in 2015 and have yet to score a point, losing 0-38 at Ohio State and 0-28 at Wisconsin.

While you might not think Boise State is on the same level as the Buckeyes and Badgers, Ohio State's offense has been in a funk to start the year and I don't think Wisconsin is as good as years past. Boise State's offense comes in ranked 49th at 435.8 ypg, but I believe it's even better than that right now.

When starting quarterback Ryan Finley went down with an injury, it turned out to be a blessing in disguise, as it allowed true freshman Brett Rypien to take over. He was a top 25 recruit out of high school at quarterback and lived up to the hype in his first start at Virginia last week, completing 24 of 35 attempts for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 56-14 win over the Cavaliers. The same Cavaliers team that only lost at UCLA by 18 and should have won at home against Notre Dame (lost on a last second touchdown). Boise State is going to be able to score and score a lot in this one.

The other key here is the Broncos are stout defensively. Boise State is ranked 16th in the country in total defense, allowing just 282.8 ypg. They are tops in the country against the run, giving up just 44.3 ypg (allowing just 1.5 yards/carry). I already mentioned Hawaii hasn't scored on the road and that's because they are averaging 3.3 yards/carry against teams that allow 4.0 and have completed just 49.2% of their pass attempts.

Each of the last 3 times Boise State has played Hawaii, they have won by at least 35 points and I don't see that trend coming to an end. Albertsons Stadium and the blue turf is one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play and the Broncos are going to be a lot more motivated for Hawaii than either Ohio State or Wisconsin was, as this is their conference opener. Take Boise State!

4* NCAAF Undervalued Underdog of the Week on Arizona St +

I believe we are getting some exceptional value here on the Sun Devils as a two touchdown dog against the Bruins. This is due to the fact that Arizona State is way undervalued after a 14-42 home loss to USC, while UCLA is getting all kinds of love for a 56-30 win against Arizona. This is still the same Sun Devils team that was right there with Texas A&M in the 4th quarter and the same Bruins team that had to rally to beat BYU at home.

I wasn't all that surprise with the results last week. I believe USC is the most talented team in the conference and the Trojans were extremely motivated off that loss at home to Stanford and were out for revenge from last year's loss to Arizona State on a Hail Mary. Arizona simply isn't a very good team and were dealing with numerous injuries to key players.

Speaking of injuries, you can't ignore the talent UCLA has lost so far, all of which came on the defensive side of the ball. Linebacker Myles Jack, corner Fabian Moreau and defensive end Eddie Vanderdoes have all been lost for the season. These injures weren't a factor against the Wildcats, but will be against a talented Arizona State offense that has yet to play up to their potential.

I also love the situation here. UCLA coming off a big road win, could overlook an Arizona State team they destroyed 62-27 on the road last year, especially with a massive road game on deck against Stanford. The Sun Devils on the other hand are going to be highly motivated to get revenge from that loss to the Bruins on their home turf and sometimes it's the ugly blowout losses like they suffered last week that get a team going.

I expect this to be a much more competitive game than the books are leading on and don't think it's out of the question that the Sun Devils pull off the upset. Arizona State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 20 points or less, while UCLA is just 1-4 in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 and 6-20 in their last 26 games in the month of October (largely due to being overvalued). Take Arizona State!

3* NCAAF Situational Oddsmakers Error on Alabama +

It will be hard for some to back the Crimson Tide after the way they were beat at home by Ole Miss, but I think the smart play here is on Alabama as an underdog. As poorly as Alabama played against the Rebels, they had a chance to win late and outgained Ole Miss 503 to 433 with a 29 to 16 edge in first downs.

While you could argue that there’s not a big gap in terms of talent between Ole Miss and Georgia, I think this is a much better matchup for the Crimson Tide. The Rebels’ offense is built around a strong passing attack, while the Bulldogs are built around their running game. Alabama’s defense has allowed 227 total rushing yards in 4 games. They are ranked 4th in the country, allowing just 56.8 ypg. It’s no fluke either. They held Wisconsin to 40 yards on 21 attempts. The Badgers are consistently one of the top rushing teams in the country and have averaged 237.7 ypg in their 3 games following their opener against the Crimson Tide.

While Georgia’s Greyson Lambert has completed 76.5% of his attempts for 733 yards with 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, he’s yet to have more than 25 pass attempts in a game and has faced an easy schedule with the Bulldogs having played ULM, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Southern. Do not be fooled by his strong showing against an awful Gamecocks defense.

Defensively the Bulldogs have been solid, but that again is a result of the soft schedule. Even with what figures to be a rowdy home crowd, I look for Georgia to struggle to slow down this Alabama offensive attack. Keep in mind that this Crimson Tide offense scored 35 on Wisconsin and 37 on Ole Miss, two of the better defensive teams in the country. I just don’t see the Bulldogs being able to score into the 30’s here against what will be a highly motivated Alabama team that knows they must win out to have a shot at making the playoffs.

The Crimson Tide are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 road games off a win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread, winning by an average of 13.5 ppg. Georgia on the other hand is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their previous game and are just 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Alabama!

3* NCAAF Vegas Line Mistake on Pitt +

I'll admit that I was very high on Virginia Tech to open the season, but a lot has changed since the summer. The Hokies lost senior starting quarterback Michael Brewer for 4-8 weeks in the opener against Ohio State and this past weekend lost their best defensive player in junior corner Kendall Fuller, who was easily going to be a 1st round NFL pick. They also lost running back Shai McKenzie for the season and could be without another running back in Marshawn Williams, who is questionable with a knee injury.

This is simply no where close to the Virginia Tech team that I was so high on in the summer and that was evident in last week's 28-35 loss at East Carolina as a 10-point favorite. Their only wins on the season have come against FCS foe Furman and Big Ten bottom feeder Purdue.

Pittsburgh lost a big part of their offense in running back James Connor, but still have a lot of talent on their roster, including junior quarterback Chad Voytik and one of the top receivers in the country in Tyler Boyd. It's also worth noting that freshman Qadree Ollison has filled in nicely in place of Connor. He's rushed for 305 with an impressive 7.4 average per carry. Virginia Tech gave up 24 points to Purdue and 35 to East Carolina, leaving me to believe that the Panthers will be able to score enough here to cover the 4.5 and potentially win outright.

The key is they don't figure to have to put up a ton of points to win, as their defense has been really good to start the year. Pitt is only giving up 3.4 yards/carry against teams that are averaging 4.6 and their secondary is holding opposing quarterbacks to a completion percentage of just 52.9%. This is important to note, as the Hokies backup QB is more of a running threat than he is a pocket passer.

You also have to factor in the Panthers are coming into this game off a bye, giving them a full two weeks to prepare for the Hokies. Pittsburgh lost their last game at Iowa, which is important to note, as they are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games following a SU loss. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, while the Hokies are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games. Take Pittsburgh!

5* American Athletic Game of the Month on Tulsa +

The betting public is all over Houston in this one, yet we have seen the line drop from it's opening mark of 9.5. That's a clear indication that big money is coming in on Tulsa and I believe it's for good reason. The Golden Hurricane are greatly improved from last year's 2-10 season, as they already have matched their win total from last year at 2-1. Their lone loss was a 38-52 defeat at Oklahoma. The improvement is a direct result of first year head coach Philip Montgomery, who spent the last 7 years at Baylor with the final 3 as the offensive coordinator.

Tulsa certainly has the offensive fire-power to hang with Houston in this one. The Golden Hurricane are ranked 3rd in the country with an average of 607.0 ypg. They are doing it both on the ground (216.3, 33rd) and through the air (390.7, 5th). This is without question the best defense the Cougars have faced this year, as their 3 opponents so far have been Tennessee Tech, Louisville and Texas State. Their win at Louisville is a big reason the public is all over this team, but Louisville is way down this year.

One of the huge factors here that is getting overlooked by the public, is that Tulsa comes into this game off a bye, giving them more than enough time to prepare for this matchup. Keep in mind, as bad as they were last year, they only lost by 10-points at Houston as a 20-point dog and were only outgained in the contest by 55 yards (had 25-21 edge in first downs). That game was also tied 28-28 with under 8 minutes to go in the 4th quarter and Tulsa threw an interception on the Cougars 6-yard line. not only do I think Tulsa will cover this number, but I think there's a good chance they win outright.

Tulsa is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams who are allowing 120 or less rushing yards per game and we also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Cougars. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who are giving up 125 or less rushing yards/game, who gained 5.5 or more yards/carry in their last contest are just 15-41 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% long-term system in favor of the Golden Hurricane. Take Tulsa!

4* UConn/BYU NCAAF Heavy Hitter on UConn +

The betting public is on the Cougars in what is perceived as a big bounce back spot after last week’s embarrassing loss to Michigan. While I do expect BYU to get a win at home, I think this is way too many points for the Cougars to be laying against a much-improved Connecticut team.

I personally think it’s going to be hard for BYU to get emotionally up for this game after playing 4 big time opponents to start their season against Nebraska, Boise State, UCLA and Michigan, three of which came on the road. Their offense only managed 105 total yards against the Wolverines last week and will now be going up against a stingy Connecticut defense that is currently ranked 21st in the country, allowing just 295.3 ypg.

The strength of the Huskies defense has been their secondary, as Connecticut’s 124.8 ypg allowed through the air ranks 6th nationally. BYU’s offense is currently 114th in rushing (103.8 ypg) and 53rd in passing (246.8 ypg), making this a great matchup for Connecticut.

This contest reminds me a lot of the Huskies third game on the road against Missouri, where they were getting 21-points. Their were only 15 combined points scored in that game and Connecticut led 6-2 up until just over 5 minutes to play in regulation. Missouri has a better defense than BYU and if the Huskies can score 10-14 points, they should cover this spread easily. While BYU’s poor defensive numbers have a lot to do with the talent they have played, they are giving up 4.7 yards/carry on the ground and 7.2 yards/pass attempt.

A key thing to keep in mind with this matchup, is Connecticut head coach Bob Diaco is very familiar with BYU and their schemes. Diaco faced BYU in each of the two years prior to coming to UConn as the defensive coordinator at Notre Dame and went up against last year with the Huskies.

Cougars are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after failing to cover the spread and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a SU loss. BYU is also just 7-28 ATS in their last 35 games after playing each of their previous two contests on the road. Take UConn!

5* NCAAF ATS No Brainer on Cincinnati +

After taking a closer look at this contest, I believe there's once again some great value here with the Bearcats. Last week I had Cincinnati as a 10-point road dog at Memphis and they ended up losing 46-53 on a late touchdown, easily covering the spread. The Bearcats arguably should have won that game, as they outgained the Tigers 752 to 570.

More times than not, when you outgain an opponent by 100+ yards you win the game. Cincinnati has somehow lost twice doing this, as they outgained Temple 557-296 in a 26-34 home loss. While it's unfortunate for the Bearcats that they aren't 4-0 to start the season, it works out in our favor, as they are getting undervalued by the books against the Hurricanes.

Miami does have an advantage of coming off a bye, but I just haven't been all that impressed with this team. They were fortunate to cover as 17.5-point road favorites at FAU (tied 20-20 in 3rd quarter with FAU losing their starting RB and QB). They followed that up by nearly blowing a 23-point lead at home against Nebraska (needed OT to win). Cincinnati's Nippert Stadium is no easy place to play and the Hurricanes could be in for a rude awakening if they aren't 100% locked into this game. The problem is, with a huge road showdown against rival Florida State on deck, it will be near impossible for Miami to give the Bearcats their full attention.

In 2013, the week prior to having to on the road to face Florida State, Miami hosted a bad Wake Forest team at home and were a 25-point favorite. The Hurricanes barely squeaked out a 24-21 win. I think there's a very good chance here that Cincinnati wins this game outright. The Bearcats are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games after scoring 20+ points in the 1st half of back-to-back games, while Miami is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after gaining 475+ yards in 2 straight games. Take Cincinnati!

3* NCAAF ATS Line Mistake on Utah +

After taking a long hard look at this matchup, I think there's some great value here with Utah catching double-digits. The Utes have had this game circled on the calendar since it game out, as they feel like they gave Oregon a win on their home turf last year. Utah was up 14-0 and were on their way to being up 21-0 before fumbling at the goal line and having it returned 99-yards for a score. The Utes were never the same after that happened.

This year Utah is just as strong, if not better than last year, while Oregon is not on the same level as last year's playoff team. Most notably on the defensive side of the ball. The Ducks let Eastern Washington rack up 438 passing yards, Michigan State rush for nearly 200 yards and another 318 passing yards to Georgia St. I believe Utah has the offensive playmakers to make this a 4-quarter game an potentially win outright.

I also think Utah has the talent defensively to give Oregon some troubles. Starting quarterback Vernon Adams is probable with a finger injury, but one big hit could knock him out of the game. They are going to need Adams to throw against this stingy Utah front 7, which is giving up just 3.5 yards/carry against teams that are averaging 4.2. Michigan State held them to just 123 yards on the ground. If Utah can keep from giving up the big plays on the ground, their chances of winning go up drastically. The best part about it, is we only need them to stay within 10-points. That's great value for a team that could win outright.

The Utes thrive as underdogs, going 58-33 ATS since 1992 when listed as a dog. Keep in mind that last year they won at Michigan 26-10 (+3) at UCLA 30-28 (+13) and at Stanford 20-17 (+9). They are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. Take Utah!

4* NCAAF ATS No Brainer of the Week on UCLA -

I think this is a prime spot to take the Bruins as a small road favorite against an Arizona team that I feel is a bit overrated. The Wildcats 3-0 start is nothing to be impressed about, as they have played UTSA, Nevada and Northern Arizona. Nevada only beat UC Davis by 14-points at home in their opener and UTSA has since lost by 27 at home to Kansas State and 55 this past week at Oklahoma State.

I just think we are seeing Arizona get a little too much respect after winning the Pac 12 South last year and UCLA being slightly undervalued after coming nowhere close to covering as a big favorite last week at home against BYU. I also really like the fact that the Bruins have had the Wildcats number of late, having won all 3 meetings since Rich Rodriguez came to Arizona.

Arizona has some nice pieces offensively, but considering they were only able to muster 7-points and 255 yards against UCLA last year, that's a great sign going into this game. That’s because the Wildcats only chance to keep this one close is to score a bunch of points.

Arizona’s defense could be getting back star linebacker Scooby Wright, but I just don't see him being the same player this early after the injury. As good as he was last year, Arizona's defense still gave up 451 yards/game. UCLA's offense is ranked 31st in the country with an average of 477.0 ypg. Arizona won't be able to put pressure on Bruins freshman quarterback Seth Rosen and I look for him to bounce back in a big way. Key here is he doesn't have to be great. UCLA has a stud running back in Paul Perkins. Last year the Bruins put up 271 yards rushing against Arizona.

It’s also worth noting that Arizona has covered the spread in each of their last two games, making them 2-1 ATS on the season. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS the last 2 seasons after covering 2 out of their last 3 games and have lost these by an average of 12.4 ppg. Adding to this, is the fact that Rich Rodriguez coached teams are a mere 2-15 ATS against defenses that are giving up 14.0 ppg or less and his teams have lost these games by an average of 17.8 ppg. Take UCLA!

3* NCAAF Situational Oddsmakers Error on Auburn -

The perception of Auburn couldn't be any worse right now, as the Tigers were embarrassed at LSU 21-45 last week, which came one week after nearly getting upset at home by Jacksonville State. The key thing here is that Guz Malzahn has finally benched starting quarterback Jeremy Johnson, who couldn't have been much worse in his first 3 games. In comes red-shirt freshman Sean White, who I think is going to surprise a lot of people and get the Tigers offense back on track. Malzahn is too good of an offensive coach and has too much talent here to not get this figured out.

What better place to make a statement than in your conference home opener. The Auburn faithful will be in full force, as they have new life with a new quarterback, especially in a night game that will be televised on ESPN. The Tigers have lost just 1 time at home in the 2 seasons under Malzahn (15-1). Not only will Auburn be motivated off last week's embarrassing loss, but they will be out for revenge from 23-38 defeat at Mississippi State last year, a game they gave away early with two turnovers that had them down 21-0.

This isn't just a play on Auburn, but a fade of Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have a really good quarterback in Dak Prescott and a solid coach in Dan Mullen, but this is not the same caliber a team from last year. The Bulldogs returned just 7 starters. They were able to fight back late at home against LSU to make it look respectable, while their other two games have been cupcakes against Southern Miss and Northwestern St. As good as this team was last year, they were just 3-2 on the road (7-0 at home). 

The Tigers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 ATS off a conference loss by 21 or more points and 10-2 ATS in home games after getting outrushed in their previous game by 125 or more yards (won on average here by 21.1 ppg). Take Auburn!

5* SEC Game of the Month on Texas A&M -

I think we are getting some great value here with Texas A&M, even with Arkansas coming in on a free-fall with back-to-back losses against Toledo and Texas Tech. The Razorbacks gained a ton of respect both from the oddsmakers and betting public last year, as they went an impressive 10-3 ATS. I still think we are seeing some of that respect play into this line, as this has clearly not been the same caliber a team as last season. Keep in mind the Razorbacks just lost at home by 11 to a Texas Tech team they beat 49-28 on the road last year.

While Arkansas is a team that is getting love from the books based on how they did last year, Texas A&M is a team that I don’t think people are quite sold on yet, which is why this line isn’t 10 or more. The Aggies went a respectable 8-5, but were just 5-8 ATS and closed out the year 3-5 after a 5-0 start.

Those that have watched Texas A&M, know this is a much-improved team on both sides of the ball. Especially on defense, where first year defensive coordinator John Chavis (LSU D-coordinator previous 6 years) is working his magic. The Aggies come in ranked 45th in total defense, giving up just 337.0 ypg (allowed 451 ypg last year). The most telling sign of their improved defense, was their opener against a high-powered Arizona State offense, which they held to 17-points and just 291 yards of total offense.

You have to be careful throwing a team like Arkansas under the bus after a couple of poor performances, but I don’t see this team bouncing back. They have lost two huge pieces offensively to injury in running back Jonathan Williams and wide receiver Keon Hatcher. The loss of Williams has really hurt this team. After averaging 218 ypg on the ground last year, they come in averaging 171.0 ypg. That’s even more concerning when you factor in they were averaging 362 ypg after their first 3 games last year. They had 438 yards rushing in that win over Texas Tech. This year they managed just 196 yards on the ground against the Red Raiders.

The Razorbacks are also not as strong defensively and will be facing by far the best offense they have seen to this point in the season. It will also be Arkansas’ first game away from home, which makes it that much harder to envision them bouncing back with a strong enough performance here to keep it within 10-points against the Aggies.

While this is technically a neutral site game, I believe it’s going to feel a lot more like a home game for the Aggies. Arlington is over a 5 hour car ride from Fayetteville and I have a difficult time seeing a bunch of Razorback fans making the trip after watching their team get embarrassed at home by a couple of teams they were expected to dominate. Take Texas A&M!

4* NCAAF Undervalued Underdog of the Week on UMass +

This your ideal letdown spot for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are coming off an emotional 30-22 win at home over Georgia Tech. A game a lot of people weren't giving them a chance in after losing starting quarterback Malik Zaire. Not only is it going to be difficult to bounce with that same kind of energy against a winless UMass team, but the Irish have an even bigger game than last week on deck at Clemson.

With the way this team has been hit with injuries early, there's going to be no motivation here to run up the score late. I also don't expect the Irish to expand their playbook much against an inferior opponent, instead I look for basic play calling that has the primary goal of getting out of this game healthy.

While Notre Dame won't be emotionally invested in this game, the Minutemen are going to come to play. It's not very often a team like UMass gets to play a Top 10 team like Notre Dame in a nationally televised game on NBC. Expect maximum effort here from an experienced UMass team that returned 19 starts and lost just 10 lettermen from last year.

It's worth noting that while the Minutemen are 0-2, which includes a 34-point loss at Colorado, there's some talent on this team. That was evident in last week's near upset against a very good Temple team. Most importantly, UMass has a capable passing attack behind senior quarterback Blake Frohnapfel and senior wide out Tajae Sharpe. This not only gives them a chance to score early, but add in some garbage points late once Notre Dame has called off the dogs.

Fading Notre Dame as a big favorite has been a very profitable strategy over the years, as the Irish are a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games when listed as a favorite of -21.5 to -31. I believe this trend becomes that much more stronger when you factor in the scenario we have with the Irish off a big win and having a huge game on deck. Take UMass!

4* NCAAF Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Tennessee -

This Tennessee team came into the season hyped as a legit contender to Georgia in the SEC East. For a lot of people that thought process changed after watching the Volunteers lose at home to Oklahoma. While it was in defeat, I was impressed with Tennessee, who arguably should have won (led 17-3 with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter).

Now we find the Volunteers going on the road against undefeated Florida (3-0), who they haven't beat in 10 straight meetings. Some might view this as a similar type matchup to the Oklahoma game, but I believe the Sooners are a lot better than the Gators. Florida is on the right track under McElwain, but that offense isn't going to be a force until he gets his players into the system. So far I haven't been impressed.

They barely scraped out a 14-9 win at Kentucky last week and only beat East Carolina 31-24 at home the week prior. That's not the same East Carolina team from last year that won at Virginia Tech. The Panthers lost their all-time leading passer and receiver and had their projected starting QB for 2015 go down with a season ending injury. The Pirates barely beat Towson 28-20 at home in their opener and got blown out last week 21-45 at Navy.

As good as Florida is defensively, I don't see the Gators keeping this high-powered Tennessee offense in check. The Volunteers come in with the 14th ranked passing attack at 246.0 ypg behind talented junior quarterback Joshua Dobbs. The Gators gave up 346 passing yards to East Carolina and will give up some big plays here.

The Gators are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games after scoring 14 points or less in their last game and 1-9 ATS at home in their last 10 after a game where 29 or fewer combined points were scored. The Volunteers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 as a road favorite of 7 or less and 28-14 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams who are completing 58% or more of their pass attempts. Take Tennessee!

3* Oklahoma St/Texas Big 12 Main Event on Oklahoma St -

I believe we are seeing some great value here with Oklahoma State, who is quietly sitting at 3-0 and ranked just 24th in the country. I was really high on the Cowboys coming into this year with 16 returning starters (8 on both sides of the ball). Prior to a down year in 2014, Mike Gundy had guided Oklahoma State to 3 double-digit win seasons the previous 4 years.

I think the Cowboys are the much stronger team in this one and would likely be laying more than a field goal had Texas not covered last week at home against Cal 44-45. The Golden Bears have a solid team and a really good quarterback, but they don't have much of a defense. Texas' offense has struggled against strong defensive teams, only 163 total yards at Notre Dame in their opener. Oklahoma State isn't great defensively, but they are solid on all 3 levels. They have been especially good against the run, giving up just 2.9 yards/carry, which is ideal against a Texas offense that doesn't offer up much of a passing attack.

This is a game Oklahoma State has had circled on the calendar after getting embarrassed at home by the Longhorns 7-28 last year. This is a team that coming into this season had only lost 16 home games over the last 10 years, so it's safe to say they remember the ones they don't win at Boone Pickens Stadium.

It's also worth noting that this series has been dominated by the road team, as the home team hasn't won a game in the series since 2008. I believe it continues. It's worth noting that home teams who are listed as a +3 underdog to a -3 favorite in a conference game after playing a game at home are just 57-109 (34%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Oklahoma State!

4* Stanford/Oregon St Pac-12 Main Event on Stanford -

On paper this doesn't look like a great situation to back Stanford, as most will assume they are primed for a bit of a letdown after their huge win over the Trojans. Even more concerning is the fact that they will be on the road in one of the more hostile environments with what figures to be rowdy crowd in a nationally televised weekday game. However, I just don’t think this is a big enough spread given the gap in talent we have here. Stanford is a legit playoff contender and Oregon State is arguably the worst team in the Pac-12.

One of the key things to keep in mind with Stanford, is that they have already been upset on the road. While it came against a Northwestern team that is a lot better than expected, it will keep them from looking past Oregon State. You can certainly bet head coach David Shaw will be using that as motivation for his players in the days leading up to this one.

From a matchups perspective, the Cardinal look to have a significant edge on both sides of the ball. Stanford’s defense comes in ranked 32nd in the country in total yards allowed at just 312.7 ypg and that’s with giving up 427 yards to USC. Oregon State ranks 109th in total offense at 322.3 ypg, which is an alarming stat given two of their three games have come against Weber State and San Jose State. The most telling sign for the Beavers offense is the 136 total yards they mustered against Michigan. Even if Stanford doesn’t have their “A” game on defense, they don’t figure to give up a whole lot of points.

Another thing to keep in mind, is that Oregon State really only possess the threat of the run. Stanford knows how to defense a dual-threat quarterback, just look at all the success they have had against Oregon over the years. If the Beavers get behind early, which I believe they will, they will won't be able to run as much as they would like. If they are forced to throw more, I believe it's going to lead to turnovers and easy/quick scores for the Cardinal, which points to comfortable win here.

Offensively Stanford came alive in their win over UCF, and it carried over to their game against USC. Stanford put up 474 total yards on the Trojans, including 195 yards on the ground. Oregon State ranks 17th in total defense, but that’s a very misleading stat, as they have played a trio of bad offenses. The most telling sign is that they allowed a Michigan offense that hasn’t looked good early on to rack up 405 yards with 225 on the ground. Keep in mind the Beavers only returned 2 starters from a defensive unit that allowed 31.6 ppg and 406 ypg last year.

Hogan is a game-time decision (I believe he will play), but even if he doesn't play I like Stanford's chances of moving the ball. Michigan doesn't have much of a passing threat and they put up 35 points and 225 rushing yards on this Oregon State defense.

Stanford is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games after scoring 31 or more points in 2 straight games and 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games after playing in a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. The Cardinal are also 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 after scoring more than 40 and 29-14-1 ATS in their last 44 conference games. Take Stanford!

4* Cincinnati/Memphis NCAAF Vegas Insider on Cincinnati +

I originally liked Memphis in this game, but that was before it was learned that there's a good chance Cincinnati starting quarterback Gunner Keil will play, as he was listed as doubtful. He's been upgraded to questionable and all reports indicate he will play. With Keil in action, this is way too many points for what will be a highly motivated Cincinnati team. 

The Bearcats will be out for some serious revenge in this one after getting embarrassed at home 14-41 by these Tigers last year. While Memphis is off to a 3-0 start, this is not the same caliber a team as the one that went 10-3 last year. The Tigers have benefited early from a soft schedule which included to cupcake games to start the season against Missouri State and Kansas. They did pull off a respectable 44-41 win at Bowling Green last week, but were actually outgained on the game 579 to 541.

Cincinnati's 37-33 win at Miami (OH) as a 21-point favorite doesn't look good on paper, but I wasn't all that surprised to see the Bearcats not play up to their potential in that game. Cincinnati was coming off a huge game at home against Temple and knew they had a short week before playing this big revenge game against Memphis.

Turnovers have been a big part of the Bearcats struggles in their first two games. They gave it up 5 times in their 26-34 loss to Temple (outgained the Owls 557-296!) and 4 times last week against Miami (OH). Memphis has forced just 3 turnovers all season and all 3 game in their opener against FCS foe Missouri State. The fact that they couldn't create 1 turnover against Kansas, is a good sign that the Bearcats will be able to hold onto the ball and potentially win this game outright. Take Cincinnati!

4* NCAAF Situational ATS No Brainer of the Week on UCLA -

The betting public has fallen in love with BYU, who has won and covered each of their last two games on a Hail Mary touchdown pass. They connected on a 42 yard pass with 1 second to spare in a 33-28 win at Nebraska and then hit a 35-yard bomb with 45 seconds to play in a 35-24 win at home against Boise State (scored another TD on pick 6 in final seconds). I'm one not to get caught up in the heroics. BYU should be 0-2 and if they were, I think this line would be closer to 3 touchdowns.

The good thing about the Cougars pulling off two miracle wins, is the fact that it will have UCLA 100% locked in on this one, as BYU is now ranked 19th in the country. I believe it will lead to a Bruins blowout win at home in what will be a packed and rowdy Rose Bowl for a 7:30 kickoff.  UCLA won by 18-points against Virginia in their opener and cruised to a 34-point at UNLV. We haven't even come close to seeing the best of what the Bruins can offer, which is another reason why this line is lower than it should be.

If you take away a fluke 84-yard bomb in the opening drive against Boise State, along with their 35-yard bomb in the closing seconds and pick 6 that followed, the Cougars would have ended that game with just 271 yards of total offense and 14 points. UCLA will be by far the best defense they have played and the magic simply won't happen against an experienced Bruins secondary.

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points, who averaged 31+ ppg the previous season, are 37-10 (79%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when playing a non-conference game between two teams from major FBS conferences. Bruins are 8-3-1 ATS last 11 games in September, while BYU is 2-7 ATS last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record and 1-4 ATS last 5 vs Pac-12. Take UCLA!

4* NCAAF Small Conference Hidden Gem of the Week on Southern Miss +

I believe the books have completely left the door open on this one. Southern Miss has fallen off the last 3 years, going just 4-32. However, they have improved in each of their first two years under head coach Todd Monken (former Oklahoma St offensive coordinator). They are now in year 3 under Monken and have 15 starters back. One of their wins last year came against Appalachian State, who went 6-2 in the Sun Belt.

Texas State has only been an FBS team since 2012 and are middle of the pack in the Sun Belt (worst FBS conference). They went 7-5 last year with their only win against an FBS opponent that finished with a winning record coming late in the year vs Arkansas State.

Southern Miss comes in off a 52-6 blowout win at home over Austin Peay, but I was more impressed with their opener against Mississippi State. The Golden Eagles gave the Bulldogs all they could handle in a 16-34 defeat (only trailed by 13 with less than 6 minutes in the 4th). They were only outgained by 19 yards (413-442). Keep in mind that's the same Mississippi State team they lost to 49-0 last year, getting outgained 550 to 283!

Texas State rolled Prairie View A&M 63-24 last week, but again I'm more interested in their opener, which they lost 16-59 at Florida State. The Bobcats were outgained by 336 yards (636-300) and their defense continued to struggle once the Seminoles put in the backups. I think Southern Miss and their 10-returning starters on offense are going to have a field day against this Texas State defense and I don't see the Bobcats keeping pace. Take Southern Miss!

3* NCAAF Oddsmakers Error on Miami -

I think there’s some decent value here with Miami only laying 3-points at home. No one was really taking about the Hurricanes as a threat to win the ACC this season, as they were coming off a disappointing 6-7 campaign and had just 11 returning starters. I believe this is a team that’s not getting near the respect they deserve, as Miami recruits extremely well and has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball.

One of the big concerns for the Hurricanes was how they would replace the production of running back Duke Johnson, who had 1,652 yards and 10 scores on his way to leaving Miami as the school’s all-time leading rusher. Johnson’s absence hasn’t been missed much in the early going. Sophomore Joseph Yearby has rushed for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns with a 7.8 average per carry and true freshman Mark Walton has added 127 yards and 4 scores.

With the running game in good form without Johnson, Miami’s offense is poised for a big season behind one of the most talented young quarterbacks in the country in Brad Kaaya, who started all 13 games last year as a true freshman. That experience should pay off and Kaaya has looked sharp early, completing 63% of his attempts for 460 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. I think he’s got a lot more to offer, as Miami has kept their offense pretty vanilla early on given their opponents.

I think the Hurricanes are going to have their way offensively against the Cornhuskers. We saw Nebraska give up over 500 yards of offense in their loss at home to BYU. While they held South Alabama to just 332 yards for the game, 313 of those game trough the air.

As expected under new head coach Mike Riley, Nebraska has turned more to the passing game on offense. That plays right into the strength of the Miami defense, which is right there in terms of talent and experience with Florida State and Virginia Tech for the top secondary in the ACC. They held Bethune-Cookman to just 26 yards on 4 of 11 passing and only allowed 166 passing yards to FAU.

You also have to factor in that this is a big revenge game for Miami, as I’m sure they feel like they gave one away at Nebraska last year. With a bye week on deck, look for the Hurricanes to lay it all on the line in what could end up being a blowout win. Take Miami!

3* NCAAF Undervalued Underdog on Notre Dame +

The public is all over Georgia Tech in this matchup and it likely has a lot to do with how well the Yellow Jackets have looked in their first two games and the fact that Notre Dame has already lost both their starting quarterback and running back for the season. I’m not so sold on Georgia Tech being able to go on the road and win here in a hostile environment.

It’s easy to get excited about the Yellow Jackets two blowout wins over Alcorn State and Tulane, but neither of those teams are any good. Alcorn State is out of the FCS and Tulane lost at home to Duke by 30-points in their opener. Not only will Georgia Tech be playing their first road game of the season, this a huge step up in competition from what they have faced the first two weeks.

The injuries to starting quarterback Malik Zaire and running back Tarean Folston are definitely big blows to the Fighting Irish, but Notre Dame is well equipped to handle those losses. I also believe the injury to Zaire is going to provide a huge emotional lift for this game, as the team will rally around their fallen QB.

Redshirt freshman backup quarterback DeShone Kizer came in and completed 8 of 12 attempts for 92 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the game-winning 40-yard touchdown pass to Will Fuller with 12 seconds left in regulation. Kizer outperformed Zaire, who had gone just 7 of 18 for 115 yards and 1 score before getting hurt. As for the running game, Notre Dame racked up 253 yards on 34 attempts (7.4 yards/carry) with C.J. Prosise leading the way with 155 yards on 17 carries (9.1 ypc).

The big key here is the defense of Notre Dame is loaded with talent and I believe will be able to keep Justin Thomas and the Yellow Jackets triple-option attack in check. Keep in mind this team plays Navy every year, so their not going to be thrown off by the triple-option. If the Irish can get off to a strong start and build up a lead early, Georgia Tech is not built to play from behind. Yellow Jackets are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a winning home record, while the Irish are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus a team with a winning record. Take Notre Dame!

5* American Athletic Game of the Year on Navy -

Simply from a motivational point of view, I believe Navy has a huge advantage. After years as an independent, the Midshipmen have joined the American Athletic this year and needless to say they are going to be motivated at home for their conference debut against a quality East Carolina team. As for the Pirates, this won't be an easy game to get up after last week's heartbreaking 24-31 loss at Florida.

Another huge factor here in favor of Navy, is the fact that they had an early bye with last week off, giving them two weeks to prepare for this game. East Carolina on the other hand will be playing back-to-back games on the road and it's extremely difficult to prepare for Navy's triple-option attack in just a few days of prep.

It's also worth noting that even with last week's strong showing against Florida, I'm still way down on the Pirates this year. They had to replace their all-time leading passer and all-time leading receiver, then they projected starting quarterback Kurt Benkert for the year. While junior Blake Kemp threw for 333 yards and 3 touchdowns last week against Florida, the Gators were missing 2 starters in the secondary, including All-American corner Vernon Hargreaves.

As we all know, Navy is primarily going to run the ball. They had 371 yards on 47 attempts (only 6 pass attempts) in their 48-10 win over Colgate in their opener. East Carolina is giving up 4.2 yards per carry and I think it will be much worse after a physical game against Florida and no real idea of what to expect with the option offense. Look for Navy to control the clock in this one, which is going to keep the East Carolina offense out of rhythm and allow their defense to stay fresh, which should feed off the home crowd.

East Carolina is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 conference road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after throwing for more than 280 yards in their last game. Navy is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. These add up to a perfect 16-0 (100%) system in favor of the Midshipmen. Take Navy!

5* Florida St/Boston College NCAAF Vegas Insider on Florida St -

Even with the struggles the Seminoles have had against Steve Addazio’s Eagles, I think we are seeing a favorable line here. Florida State’s 20-point win over USF was far from impressive, as they were tied 7-7 at the half and led by just 10-points with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. What a lot of people don't realize is that's a much-improved USF team.

On the other hand, Boston College is coming off a 76-point win. The thing to keep in mind is that Howard is awful, which is why the Eagles were a 44-point favorite in that contest. They struggled in their opener against Maine, winning by a final of 24-3 as a 18-point favorite.

I actually think Boston College is at a disadvantage here, as they have essentially played a couple of exhibition games to start the season. Sure it’s good for their confidence, but this is a enormous step up in the level of talent they have faced so far. I also think the Eagles close calls against Florida State is going to work against them, as the Seminoles won’t overlook them. You also have to factor in the motivation angle here for Florida State to showcase their talents in a nationally televised game and there’s no reason to hold back with a bye week on deck.

Another thing to keep in mind with Boston College, is that this team lost a lot from last years’ squad. The Eagles only returned 10 starters and have lost one of those in tight end Michael Giacone, who was lost to a season-ending leg injury. Their offense was a major concern for me coming into the year with the loss of Tyler Murphy, who threw for 1,623 yards and 13 touchdowns and rushed for a team-high 1,184 yards and 11 scores.

We haven’t exactly seen much from Murphy’s replacement, as sophomore Darius Wade has attempted just 30 passes. He’s completed 17 of them, but for only 185 yards and 2 scores. Most of the Eagles offensive success has come via the running game, which totaled 204 against Maine and 347 against Howard. Florida State has allowed just 281 yards in their first two games and will be able to focus in on the run here.

Florida State’s offense didn’t look great against the Bulls last week, but there’s a lot of talent on this side of the ball, including starting quarterback Everett Golson, who has completed 64.7% of his attempts for 465 yards with 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. I just don’t think Boston College will be able to keep pace offensively in what likely turns into a Seminoles blowout. Take Florida State!

5* Clemson/Louisville ACC Game of the Month on Louisville +

The public perception is way down on the Cardinals right now after starting out the season 0-2, which I believe has created some great value on Louisville for Thursday’s home showdown against Clemson. Needless to say the Cardinals are going to be extremely motivated off that home loss to Houston and there’s still plenty to play for with this being their first conference game.

You just can’t underestimate the advantage the home team has in these weekday games. It’s extremely difficult to play on the road with only 4 days of rest, especially when you are going into a hostile environment like Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium. Even with last week’s loss to Houston, the Cardinals are 47-19 at home since 2005.

Clemson has looked impressive in their first two games, but that’s not say much when you take into consideration they have played an FCS opponent and a team out of the Sun Belt. This will be the Tigers first real test of 2015 and their first game away from home, two things that I think this line has failed to factor.

One of the key things to keep in mind here is that the Clemson defense only returned 3 starters from last year and have not faced an offense as potent as what Louisville will bring to the field. The Cardinals put up 405 yards of total offense against Auburn in their opener and another 395 yards against Houston. Their biggest problem has been turnovers, as they have given up the football 6 times, including 4 last week.

I think there’s a stronger possibility that this game goes down to the wire than Clemson turning this into a blowout. I actually wouldn't be shocked if the Cardinals won here comfortably.

Adding even more value here to Louisville is a strong system that suggests a fade of the Tigers. Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, who closed out the previous year with 3 or more straight wins are a mere 15-48 (24%) ATS since 1992. This situation has already come up twice in 2015 and both times the underdog covered. Take Louisville!

4* NCAAF High Roller ATS Blowout of the Week on Texas -

The public perception is about as low as it can get for Texas after last week's embarrassing 35-point loss on the road against Notre Dame. While it wasn't the kind of effort I was expecting from the Longhorns, that's a really good Notre Dame team that could very well be headed to the 4-team playoff.

Getting beat like that is going to serve as a huge wake-up call for Charlie Strong's team and will have them extremely motivated going into their home opener against an inferior Rice squad. The Owls crushed Wagner last week 56-16, but that's not saying much. Wagner lost to a 4-8 FIU team last year by 31-points. Rice also did almost all their damage on the ground with 401 rushing yards on 54 attempts. They aren't going to be able to have that same kind of success against Texas on the road.

The big key here is that I look for the Longhorns' offense to explode in this one. Rice only returns 3 starters from a defense that gave up 28.5 ppg and 386 ypg. Texas' offense is getting a lot of criticism for how they have looked both in their last game and to close out last season, but keep in mind their last 3 games have come against 3 really good defenses in TCU, Arkansas and Notre Dame.

I look for Texas to come out and lay a beating on the Owls. Keep in mind they knocked off North Texas out of C-USA last year 38-7 in their home opener. The Owls will likely be able to score some points, but no where near enough to keep this within 14-points. Take Texas!

3* NCAAF Situational ATS No Brainer on Cincinnati -

This may seem like a lot of points for the Bearcats to be laying at home against a Temple team that just upset Penn State last week 27-10, but I think there's actually some great value here with Cincinnati laying less than a touchdown. As good as the Owls looked, I believe the Bearcats are the best team in the American Athletic.

The biggest key here is the game being played at Cincinnati. The Bearcats are a dominant 49-13 at home over the last 10 seasons, as they have quietly had one of the best homefield advantages in college football. It's going to be electric inside newly remodeled Nippert Stadium as many consider this to be the game that will decide the AAC East.

The Temple defense isn't going to be able to wreak havoc in the backfield like the did against Penn State, as the Bearcats are very strong up front on the offensive line. Cincinnati also has the best quarterback in the AAC in junior Gunner Kiel and are poised for a breakout year in their 3rd season under head coach Tommy Tubberville.

The fact that Cincinnati is coming off a blowout 52-10 win last week against Alabama A&M sets them up in a very favorable system, as the Bearcats are a dominant 15-4 ATS over their last 19 games after leading in their previous contest by 24 or more points at the half. Take Cincinnati!

4* NCAAF Undervalued Underdog of the Week on Nevada +

Arizona came into this season getting a lot of respect after their surprising run to the Pac-12 South title last year, which included that impressive win on the road over #2 ranked Oregon in a nationally televised game.

As it turns out, the Wildcats were drastically overrated. They were a 33.5-point home favorite in their opener at home against UTSA and barely squeaked out a 42-32 victory. That's concerning considering UTSA had just 6 returning starters and were picked by many to finish last in the C-USA West Division. Only 2 of those 6 starters returned on offense and yet they managed to put up 525 yards of total offense on Arizona (outgained the Wildcats by 133 yards!). 

I don't foresee a major turnaround defensively against Nevada, especially given that the Wildcats lost the heart and soul of their defense in reigning Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year in linebacker Scooby Wright.

Nevada is a team that I think is flying under the radar. The Wolf Pack finished last year at 7-6, but had 3 close losses (could have been a 10-win team), including a 7-point loss at Arizona (28-35). They dominated Cal Davis 31-17 (led 24-3 going into the 4th). I was really impressed with the play of new starting quarterback Tyler Stewart, who completed 13 of 20 for 163 yards and ran for another 43 yards (accounted for 2 touchdowns). Nevada will be able to score here. Not only do I think they do enough to cover, but I think they could easily win this game outright. Take Nevada!

3* NCAAF No Doubt Oddsmakers Error on Colorado State +

The books have set a small line here for a reason. While Minnesota kept it surprisingly close against TCU in their opener at home last Thursday, I don't trust this Gopher team on the road. There's a lot of people down on Colorado State after they lost their star quarterback and watched head coach Jim McElwain leave for Florida, but I'm not one of them. McElwain left a lot of talent behind in Fort Collins and the Rams did a nice job replacing him with former Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo.

The up-tempo offense that McElwain installed at Colorado State is still in full effect and there's 7 starters back on that side of the ball, including a bunch of talent on the o-line and one of the nations best receivers in Rashard Higgins. Having Higgins is huge for new quarterback Nick Stevens, who looked sharp in last week's blowout win over Savannah State (65-13).

It's not very often that teams like Colorado State get to host a power 5 team, so this is definitely a game that the Rams have been looking forward to. As for Minnesota, they are in a major letdown spot after hosting the #2 ranked team in the country in TCU. They also find themselves playing in the thin air of Colorado, which is extremely difficult to prepare for.

I'm confident the Rams will be able to move the ball and put up points against this Minnesota defense and I like their chances of keeping a one-dimensional Gopher offense (almost strictly run) in check. I have the Rams winning this one outright, but I'll gladly take the 5-points for some added insurance. Take Colorado State!

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Notre Dame -

I’m expecting the Irish to be a popular public play here after their 38-3 dismantling of Texas, but I don't think the books have adjusted enough for just how good this Notre Dame team is. Simply put, 11-points is not enough for the talent gap we have here.

Virginia invested a lot into last week’s opener against UCLA, who they felt like they should have beat at home in a 20-28 loss to open 2014. Sure the Cavaliers will be motivated for their home opener, but I just think it’s too much for a below-average team like Virginia to play an elite team in back-to-back weeks.

Notre Dame really impressed me in their 35-point win over Texas. The Fighting Irish had a +364 edge in total yards, holding Texas to a mere 163 yards of total offense. This Notre Dame defense is the real deal and looks to be a similar mold to the one that guided them to a perfect 12-0 regular season and spot in the BCS Championship Game back in 2012. Some will point to Texas being down, but I think it had more to do with how good Notre Dame is and not how bad the Longhorns are.

Virginia put up a respectable 336 yards of total offense in their loss to UCLA, which could be seen as a positive sign, but I’m not completely sold on the Bruins defense. While they returned 8 starters on that side of the ball, they allowed 28.1 ppg and 399 ypg in 2014. I believe Notre Dame is much stronger than UCLA on that side of the ball, which means it’s going to be very difficult for Virginia to score enough points to keep this one close. Keep in mind, 106 of those 336 yards came after they trailed 31-9 late in the 4th quarter and they were down by 23 before a garbage touchdown with just over 3 minutes to play.

One of the reasons this line isn’t larger is the fact that Notre Dame lost starting running back Tarean Folston to a season-ending knee injury. While it’s a big loss, the Fighting Irish are well-equipped to handle it. Keep in mind Folston only had 3 carries for 19 yards against Texas and they still managed to rack up 214 yards and 2 scores on the ground.

I also don’t think the Notre Dame offense as a whole is getting enough respect here, as not many people are all that familiar with new starting quarterback Malik Zaire. It won’t be long before they are. Zaire completed 19 of 22 attempts for 313 yards and 3 touchdowns against a Texas defense that returned 3 of 4 starters in the secondary. This team is going to put up points and I just don’t see Virginia being able to keep pace.

Adding even more value here is a strong system backing the Irish. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who averaged 31.0 ppg or more the previous year are 36-8 ATS in non-conference games between two teams from major FBS conferences. That's a 82% long-term system. Take Notre Dame!

4* Miami/FAU NCAAF Heavy Hitter on Miami -

I know you can’t get too excited about a team whipping up on a FCS opponent, but I was really impressed with how well the Hurricanes looked in their opener against Bethune Cookman. They had a ridiculous 379-79 advantage in total yards and the final score doesn’t do justice, as they were up 31-0 at the end of the 1st half.

Miami is a team that was flying under the radar coming into 2015, as they went a disappointing 6-7 in 2014 with a mere 3-5 record inside the ACC. This team only returned 11 starters, but they got back sophomore quarterback Brad Kaaya and are a lot better defensively than people give them credit for.

The Hurricanes should have no problem putting up a big number on a FAU defense that was shredded for 618 yards (would have been even more if they didn’t force 4 turnovers) by Tulsa. Most notably, they allowed quarterback Dane Evans to complete 21 of 33 attempts for 424 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kaaya is going to have his way with the Owls secondary in this one. Keep in mind the Owls parted ways with their top two tacklers from a defense that allowed 34.4 ppg and 461 ypg last year.

I just don’t see FAU being able to keep pace offensively to keep this one within 20-points. The Owls offense put up 563 yards on Tulsa, but that’s not saying much. The Golden Hurricane gave up 39.3 ppg and 487 ypg in 2014. They aren’t going to rush for 300 yards like they did against Tulsa and I don’t see quarterback Jaquez Johnson being able to make up for that through the air.

It is worth mentioning that there is some concern here with Miami having a big revenge game on deck next week against Nebraska, but I have a difficult time seeing the Hurricanes not showing up for a primetime game, where the only other game on the schedule is Utah State/Utah. The Hurricanes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in September, 10-2 in their last 12 off a SU win by more than 20 points and 9-1 in their last 10 after allowing less than 20 points. Take Miami!

5* La Tech/W. Kentucky C-USA Game of the Month on La Tech -

Louisiana Tech beat Western Kentucky 59-10 last year at home. They held the Hilltoppers to a season-low 297 yards. While I would expect a better effort here out of Western Kentucky offensively, I don't think it will be a big enough jump to make up for what their defense is going to allow.

Keep in mind this line opened at Western Kentucky -2 and has quickly shifted 3.5-points. While I would have loved to get this in at +2,  I still think there's a ton of value here with the Bulldogs -1.5. I believe Louisiana Tech is the best team in C-USA this year and Western Kentucky is one of the most overrated teams in the conference due to their late season upset of undefeated Marshall. 

I know Western Kentucky's defense held Vanderbilt to just 12-points, but that was more of a result of the Commodores poor offense than the Hilltoppers making big improvements defensively. Keep in mind they were outgained by Vanderbilt 385 to 246.

While you can’t overreact to Louisiana Tech’s performance against Southern, it is worth noting that starting quarterback Jeff Driskel completed 12 of 15 attempts for 274 yards and 4 touchdowns in his Bulldogs debut (transferred in from Florida). I look for Driskel to have Louisiana Tech’s offense putting up similar numbers to the 37.4 ppg and 401 ypg they averaged a year ago. Keep in mind they returned 7 starters on offense, including star running back Kenneth Dixon, who rushed for 1,299 yards and 22 touchdowns a year ago. Take Louisiana Tech!

5* Ohio St/Va Tech Labor Day ATS No Brainer on Va Tech +

While the Buckeyes may be out for revenge against the Hokies, who were the only team to beat them a year ago, I think there's too much value here with a 14.5-point spread to pass up on Virginia Tech at home. It's not out of the question that the Hokies beat Ohio State straight up.

While the Buckeyes have a lot of key players back for the 2015 season, they have a huge target on their back and won't be as motivated coming off a championship. The key here is that this game is being played in Blacksburgh at Lane Stadium, which is one of the most difficult places in all of college football to play for a road team, especially in a nationally televised prime-time game like we have here.

As good as Ohio State is on offense, the Hokies have the talent defensively to keep them in check. Virginia Tech returns 8 starters to a defense that allowed just 20.2 ppg and 344 ypg a year ago. They held the Buckeyes to just 108 yards on the ground (2.7 yards/attempt) last year in Columbus. Stopping the run is the key to slowing down this Ohio State offense.

I'm not saying the Buckeyes won't score, but Virginia Tech is definitely capable of matching their offense at home. The Hokies have 8 more starters back on offense and I'm expecting a much stronger year from senior quarterback Michael Brewer, who missed out on spring practices last season after transferring in from Texas Tech. Virginia Tech also has a strong running game and their top 3 weapons back at receiver. They also benefit greatly here from Ohio State playing without star linebacker Joey Bosa, who is a potentially Top 5 pick in next year's draft. Take Virginia Tech!

5* Purdue/Marshall NCAAF Vegas Insider on Purdue +

If you just look at how these two teams performed a year ago, you might think Marshall is an easy play here. However, these are two teams headed in different directions in 2015 and I wouldn't be the least bit shocked if Purdue won outright. Marshall had been on a nice run, but that came under quarterback Rakeem Cato. He's departed as the teams No. 1 all-time leading passer and the dropoff figures to be significant. The Thundering Herd only have 11 starters back in all.

Purdue on the other hand has 15 starts (8 offense, 7 defense), from a team that quietly made huge improvement last year. Purdue only made a 2-game improvement from 1-11 to 3-9, but they made significant strides on both sides of the ball. On offense they went from averaging 14.9 to 23.8. Defensively, they improved from allowing 38.0 to 31.7.

Now that they are in the 3rd year under head coach Darrell Hazell, this is a team that is going to surprise a lot of people. I really like their chances of winning this game, but I'll gladly take 7.5-points for some insurance. Take Purdue!

4* NCAAF Situational ATS No Brainer on West Virginia -

This may seem like a lot of points to be laying against a Georgia Southern team that ran the table in the Sun Belt a year ago and nearly upset both NC State (23-24) and Georgia Tech (38-42) on the road in non-conference play. However, they ended the year with a 19-52 loss at Navy and won't be catching teams by surprise in 2015 (last year was their first at FBS level).

The other key here is that Georgia Southern runs primarily a triple-option attack. That can be difficult for teams to prepare for on short rest during the season, but West Virginia has had ample time to prepare for their attack. You also have to factor in that starting quarterback Kevin Ellison is suspended for this game, leaving the Eagles with just 4 starters back on offense from last year. The quarterback is critical for option offenses to have success and I just don't see the backup playing well here in a hostile environment like Mountaineer Field.

West Virginia does have to replace starting quarterback Clint Tricket and two wide outs who were drafted by the NFL, including star receiver Kevin White. However, I don't think the Eagles will be able to slow down Holgorsen's uptempo attack. New starting quarterback Skyler Howard is poised for a big season. He had a 8-0 TD to INT ration in limited action last year and started 2 games down the stretch, including their bowl game against Texas A&M.Howard also brings a new dynamic to the offense, as he's more built to run the zone read (averaged 6.4 ypc on 22 attempts last year).

Georgia Southern gave up 464 yards to NC State, 536 to Georgia Tech and 465 to Navy, leaving little doubt in my mind that West Virginia will have 500+ yards in this one at home. With the Eagles offense not figuring to do much, I think the Mountaineers win here by closer to 30 than 20. Take West Virginia!

4* Arizona St/ Texas A&M ATS Vegas Insider on Texas A&M -

The fact that the Aggies are favored in this one really speaks to how much better the experts are expecting this team to be than last year. Not very often will you see a Top 15 team getting points against a team that’s not ranked at all. The public will likely be all over the Sun Devils because of this, which only adds to my belief that Texas A&M is the smart play here.

The Aggies will feature a dynamic offense under head coach Kevin Sumlin and offensive coordinator Jake Spavital. Last season was a down year and they still averaged 35.2 ppg and 455 ypg. I look for the offense to take off under sophomore quarterback Kyle Allen, who really impressed down the stretch as a true freshman. He should be even better in year two and has plenty of weapons to work with, including last year’s leading rusher Tra Carson and a number of playmakers back at wide receiver.

It’s not just the offense that has me excited about Texas A&M this year, it’s a defense that should be greatly improved under the guidance of new defensive coordinator John Chavis, who was the LSU defensive coordinator the last 6 years. Chavis will take over a defense that has 8 starters back and a ton of talent.

Arizona State will be transitioning to a new quarterback in senior Mike Bercovici, though he did start 3 games last year and put up some impressive numbers. It’s likely the Sun Devils will be able to move the football and score some points, but I don’t believe they will be able to keep pace with the Aggies. Arizona State’s defense gets back 9 starters, but this is a unit that really struggled against the top notch offenses they faced last year, allowing 490+ yards in 6 of their 13 games.

The other key factor here is that while this is technically a neutral site game for both teams, it’s going to feel a lot more like a home game for Texas A&M than it is Arizona State. College Station is just a short 1 hour 40 min drive, while Tempe is a solid 16 hour 32 min drive (2 hour 25 min flight) for Sun Devil fans. Take Texas A&M!

3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Rout on Kentucky -

The Wildcats ended up finishing last year a disappointing 5-7, thanks to a 6-game losing streak to end the season. A lot of people forget this team started 5-1 with their only loss being a triple-overtime defeat at Florida. A big reason for that strong start was their play in non-conference, where they beat UT Martin, Ohio and ULM all by at least 17 points.

The key thing is that Kentucky is poised to be even better in 2015, as they get back 14 starters (7 on each side of the ball). Offensively they return talented junior quarterback Patrick Towles, as well as their leading wide out, top rusher and 4 starters along the offensive line. This offense is going to have a field day against the Ragin' Cajuns, which was torched in non-conference play last year, giving up 48 to Louisiana Tech, 56 to Ole Miss and 34 to Boise State, all games they lost by at least 23 points.

The big key here is that while Kentucky does lose star defensive end Bud Dupree and have some expected starters hurt, they shouldn't have much trouble slowing down the UL-Lafayette offense. The Ragin' Cajuns are going to take a big step back this year, as they lose starting quarterback Terrance Broadway (2nd all-time in school history for passing yards), as well as running back Alonzo Harris (3rd all-time leading rusher in school history). Keep in mind Broadway was a dynamic dual threat quarterback (3rd on team with 653 yards and 3 TDs rushing). I just don't see the new starter playing well on the road in an SEC environment. Take Kentucky!

3* NCAAF Week 1 Oddsmakers Error on Bowling Green +

While I’m on board with a lot of the experts that this will be the year Tennessee returns to being a key player in the SEC, I think this is too many points for the Volunteers to be laying against a well-coached Bowling Green team that has a lot of talent back on the offensive side of the ball.

The Falcons get back junior quarterback Matt Johnson, who made just 1 start last year before suffering a season-ending injury. Johnson threw for 3,467 yards (64% completion rate) with 25 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions in 2013. He will take back the starting job and will have a lot of talent to work with. Bowling Green returns their top two rushers (combined for 1,713 yards and 18 TDs), each of their top 4 receivers and all 5 starters on the defensive line.

While Bowling Green does lose a lot defensively (only 5 starters back), they should be able to score enough here to keep it close enough to cover. Even if Tennessee comes out and dominates this game early, the Falcons are primed for a backdoor cover. The Volunteers aren’t going to be worried about running up the score, as they don’t want to risk any more injuries before next week’s huge home showdown against Oklahoma, which is a big revenge game (lost 10-34 at Oklahoma last year).

I hinted at Tennessee coming into this game short-handed. Last year’s leading wide out, Pig Howard is suspended for this contest. They have already lost junior receiver Jason Croom to a knee injury and wide out Marquez North has been dealing with a knee injury (expected to play). Starting free safety LaDarrell McNeil is out for an extended period with a neck injury and left guard Marcus Jackson has potentially been lost for the year to a torn bicep. Take Bowling Green!

5* Non-Conference Total of the Month on UTEP/Arkansas OVER 49.5

While Arkansas lost star running back Jonathan Williams to a season-ending foot injury, I don't think that's going to keep the Razorbacks from putting up a big number on the Miners Saturday. Arkansas scored 73 on Nicholls State, 49 on Texas Tech, 42 on Northern Illinois and 45 on UAB in their 4 non-conference games a year ago.

Their massive offensive line is going to create huge holes against the UTEP defense and score at will in this one. Keep in mind backup running back Alex Collins (1,100 yards 12 TDs, 5.4 ypc) as Williams (1,190 yards, 12 TDs, 5.6 ypc). The Razorbacks also get back senior quarterback Brandon Allen and the entire offense should feel comfortable in what will be head coach Brett Bielema's 3rd season. UTEP gave up 172 ypg and 5.2 ypc against the run last year, as well as a hefty 6.3 yards/play. They have just 5 starters back on that side of the ball and lose their leading tackler from a year ago in Wesley Miller (25 more tackles than the next best player).

UTEP's 4 non-conference games were also very high scoring in 2014, with 55 being the lowest combined output and that was against New Mexico. Not only are the Miners going to struggle to slow down a fine-tuned Arkansas offense, but they should be able to put some points on the board, whether it comes early or late. Razorbacks defense was really good a year ago, but they have just 6 starters back and have to replace 3 of their top 4 tacklers, including the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Martrell Spaight. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a 45-20 type of score in this one. Take the OVER!

4* Friday Night NCAAF Undervalued Underdog on Western Michigan +

I really like the value in backing the Broncos at home in this one. I don’t think there’s any question that this spread is  inflated due to the fact that we have a Top 5 ranked team going up against a school from the MAC.

As far as motivation is concerned, this game means a lot more to Western Michigan than it does Michigan State. The Broncos finally get a shot at the Spartans on their home turf and are clearly going to be up for this contest. I don’t know that you can say the same thing for Michigan State. While the opener is always an exciting game, it’s going to be extremely difficult for the Spartans to not look ahead to next week’s huge home matchup against Oregon, which is a huge revenge game after blowing a 27-18 lead in a 27-46 loss at Oregon last year.

There’s no denying the talent level greatly favors Michigan State, but this is a team that loses a lot from last year. On offense they have to replace their top 3 rushers, including leading rusher Jeremy Langford, who had 1,522 yards and 22 touchdowns. They also lose their top 2 wide outs in Tony Lippett and Keith Mumphery (both NFL draft picks). Defensively they lose two All-American defensive backs from last year and recently lost starting middle linebacker Ed Davis to a season-ending knee injury. They may also be without returning starting corner Darian Hicks, who is questionable with Mononucleosis.

Western Michigan should be able to at least keep this one close. They have a ton back from last year’s team, including 9 starters on an offense that averaged 33.8 ppg and 438 ppg. They get back starting quarterback Zach Terrell, who had 3,443 yards and 26 touchdowns, sophomore running back Jarvion Franklin (MAC Offensive Player of the Year as a true freshman in 2014) and top wide out Corey Davis (1,408 yards, 15 TDs).

It’s also worth noting that the Spartans have struggled in road openers, losing each of their last 2 and 5 of their last 7 overall. I don’t think there's any chance they lose this one, but I also don’t see them beating the Broncos by more than 17 on the road. Take Western Michigan!

5* NCAAF Opening Night ATS No Brainer on Michigan +

I think the impact Jim Harbaugh will have on the Wolverines will be immediate starting with their opener against Utah. Harbaugh has won everywhere he's went and Michigan will be no different. What a lot of people overlook is how much talent he inherited with this roster. The only real question mark was at quarterback and he added in Iowa transfer Jake Rudock to compete with junior Shane Morris. It's unclear who will start, but Harbaugh is well known for getting the most out of any signal caller he's coached.

The other big key here is revenge from last year's ugly 10-26 loss at home to the Utes. A game that wasn't as lopsided as the final score would indicate. Michigan actually outgained Utah 308 to 286, but were -3 in the turnover department. With an offense that will be more potent under Harbaugh's guidance and better fortune with turnovers, I could see the Wolverines winning here comfortably. Keep in mind Utah lost a big part of their defense in All-American Nate Orchard, who had 18.5 sacks and was second on the 2nd with 84 tackles.

What gets overlooked from last year's disappointing 5-7 campaign for Michigan, is the fact that the defense played extremely well. Michigan only allowed 22.4 ppg and 311 ypg, which is even more impressive given the offensive struggles. Harbaugh will add even more to that unit with his no non-sense approach. It's also important to note that Utah's offense is predicated on their ability to run the ball, but that plays right into the strength of the Michigan defense, which allowed just 3.2 yards/carry (held Utah to just 81 yards on 37 attempts last year (2.2 ypc). Take Michigan and the points for some added insurance!