5* American Athletic 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on Memphis UNDER

This is just too many points for these two teams. UConn is coming of back-to-back games where they combined for at least 77 points, but that was against the likes of East Carolina and SMU, who aren't known for their defense. This still still the same offense that scored 7-points in the 1st half at home against Holy Cross and just 18 at Virginia. 

I know Memphis' has some poor numbers defensively, but a big reason for that is they have faced two big time offenses in UCLA and UCF. I'm not saying they will be able to shutdown this UConn offense, but I do think they can get off the field and make the Huskies work for every point they do get. 

As for the Connecticut defense, they will have their work cut out for them, but they should be a little better than normal at home in a prime time matchup like this, where they know a lot of people will be tuning in because it's one of just two college games on the schedule Friday. Memphis also has consistently shot themselves in the foot, as they have 9 turnovers in their first 4 games, including 4 last week in their first road game of the season. 

UNDER is 35-17 in the Tigers' last 52 road games against conference opponents, 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring fewer than 20 points. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Huskies last 5 home games against a team with a winning home record, 13-3 in their last 16 after allowing 200+ rushing yards in their last game and 18-8 in their last 26 off a loss. Take the UNDER! 

5* Lou/NC State ACC 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on NC State +

I really like the value here with the Wolfpack catching points at home against the Cardinals on Thursday. I actually NC State is the better team in this matchup and should be the ones favored. The thing is the public is drawn to Louisville and reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, so the books have no choice but to inflate their lines. 

The Cardinals haven't really been all that impressive so far. They were fortunate to leave with a win over Purdue in their opener, only led UNC by 1-point going into the 4th quarter and were absolutely dominated by Clemson at home. Jackson is still putting up video game type numbers, but the offense as a whole hasn't been as good and the defense is a lot worse. He really struggled against the dominant defensive front of Clemson and NC State has quite a front of their own, who will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after last year's 13-54 loss at Louisville.

The defensive numbers are better than they actually are because of their last two games against Kent State and Murray State, where they allowed a combined 230 total yards. This defense allowed 293 yards passing to Purdue, 384 to UNC and 316 to Clemson. NC State and junior QB Ryan Finley come in with the 24th ranked passing offense in the country at 293.0 ypg. Look for the Wolfpack to big up some big plays through the air that should allow some separation. Take NC State! 

4* Ark ST/Ga Sou Sun Belt 'ATS ANNIHILATOR' on Arkansas State -

With Red Wolves starting quarterback Justice Hansen upgraded to probable, I don't see this one being close. Georgia Southern is 0-3 and while two of those losses came at Auburn and at Indiana, they also lost 12-22 at home to New Hampshire out of the FCS. The Eagles have scored a whopping 46 points in their first 3 games. I just don't see them being able to do enough offensively to keep this one competitive, even at home. 

Arkansas State on the other hand is averaging 35 ppg, having scored 36 in a near upset at Nebraska. The strength of the Red Wolves offensive assault is Hansen and the passing game, which ranks 9th in the country at 351.7 ypg. Not only will they be able to attack the Eagles thru the air, but Georgia Southern's run defense has been atrocious. They are giving up 5.9 yards/carry and 259 yards/game on the ground. 

The Eagles passing attack ranks 129th out of 130 FBS teams at just 78.0 ypg. That's going to make it really tough on them to play from behind and should eliminate the back door cover. Georgia Southern lost 17-52 last time out to the Hoosiers and are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 off a loss by more than 20 points. The Eagles are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games an 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a conference opponent. Take Arkansas State! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'DESTROYER' on Iowa UNDER

This has the makings of a low-scoring game, as we have two teams that like to grind it out offensively with their running game and are stout on the defensive side of the ball. Michigan State comes in ranked 9th in total defense, allowing just 254 ypg and are 31st in rushing at 220.7 ypg. Iowa isn't ranked as high defensively or in the running game, but watching this team play that defensive front is very good and they got one of the top backs in the country behind a really good offensive line.

There's also a ton a familiarity between these two teams, as Mark Dantonio is in his 11th year with Michigan State and Kirk Ferentz is going on his 19th year at Iowa. Both teams run similar schemes as they have in the past and that's a big advantage for both defenses. The last time these two teams played was the 2015 Big Ten title game and the final score was 16-13. Only once in the last 7 seasons have these two combined for more than 44 points. 

UNDER is 23-12 in the Hawkeyes last 35 as a underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 15-6 in their last 21 road games against a team that is allowing 310 or less yards/game. UNDER is also 14-5 in Michigan State's last 19 home games as a favorite of 7 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Michigan State -

I love the value here getting Michigan State as a slim 3-point favorite at home against the Hawkeyes. This is an ideal spot to fade Iowa off that huge Saturday night home game against No. 4 Penn State, which they let slip through their fingers on the final play of regulation. On the flip side of this, we get Michigan State in an ideal bounce back spot off a blowout loss at home to Notre Dame. 

Even if the situation was different, I would lay just a field goal at home with the Spartans. The biggest thing is I just don't think Iowa team is as good as people think. Sure they kept it close against the Nittany Lions, but they also beat Michigan in a similar spot a year ago and weren't that great. Wins over Wyoming, Iowa State and North Texas leave little to be desired. 

Also, that game against Penn State could have been a lot worse. Iowa's offense was atrocious for pretty much the entire first half and ran about has as many plays as the Nittany Lions. They could have just as easily lost by 20+. As for Michigan State, they were a lot more competitive against Notre Dame than the final score would lead on, as they outgained the Irish 496 to 355. They come in ranked 9th in the country in total defense, allowing just 254 ypg. If Iowa thought it was tough at home moving the ball against the Nittany Lions, they are in for a really long day on the road against a pissed of Spartans team. Take Michigan State! 

3* BEST BET on Eastern Michigan +

I like the value here with Eastern Michigan catching two touchdowns plus the hook. Chances are you haven't been paying close attention to the Eagles. This program is on the rise. After a 4-year stretch where they went 7-41, Eastern Michigan finished 7-5 and made a bowl last year. This turnaround is a result of head coach Chris Creighton, who will be getting a promotion to a bigger program in the near future. His recruits are finally seeing the field and playing big roles, as this is now year 4 with the team. 

The come in off a loss to Ohio, but were in that game and could have just as easily won. The previous week they won on the road at Rutgers as a mere 6-point dog. The big key here is we catch Kentucky in the ideal spot to fade off a demoralizing 27-28 loss to Florida. A very similar spot to Tennessee last week, when they barely held on to beat UMass after losing the Gators on a Hail Mary. This is almost bigger than a bowl game for the Eagles, as they get to show their stuff against a SEC foe. I think they make a game of this and maybe even pull off the upset. Take Eastern Michigan! 

3* NCAAF Situational 'PUBLIC ANNIHILATOR' on Tennessee +

I like the value here with the Volunteers catching over a touchdown at home against the Bulldogs. I just think we are seeing a huge overreaction here with this line after Tennessee barely scraped by UMass 17-13 as a 28-point favorite. The Vols struggling against the Minutemen was no surprise to most experts. 

Tennessee had just suffered an excruciating loss to rival Florida the week before, where they rallied from a 10-point deficit to tie it at 20-20, only to have the Gators connect on a 63-yard Hail Mary as time expired. Just about every team is going to suffer a letdown after a loss like that. Had that Florida came went differently and the Vols were 4-0, I think this line would be a lot closer to 3 or 4 not 8. 

Georgia has looked impressive and off a big win over Mississippi State, but it's not easy winning on the road in the SEC, especially against a quality opponent. Let's also not overlook that this Bulldogs team is only 83rd in the country in total offense and offer little to no threat of a passing attack (166 ypg, 112th).

I expect a much more focused and determined Tennessee defense at home on Saturday afternoon and wouldn't be shocked if the Vols won this game outright. The underdog in this series is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Vols are 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they hosted the Bulldogs. Take Tennessee! 

3* BEST BET on Syracuse +

Now that this line has got up to 14, think it's worth a shot to take the Orange on the road against NC State. This is a really tough spot for the Wolfpack, who are coming off a huge game and win on the road over Florida State, who they hadn't beat since that crazy 17-16 upset over the then No. 3 Seminoles back in 2012.

Hard to pay a ton of attention to Syracuse when you have another big game looming in just a matter of days, as they host Louisville and reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. I just think they come out flat here and this Orange team can put up some points if you don't give your full respect. We saw that last week when they went on the road and gave LSU all they could handle in a 26-35 loss as a 21.5-point favorite. I think we see a similar type of game here, where they probably don't have a real shot at winning, but do enough to cash the cover. Take Syracuse! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt 'ATS BLOWOUT'  on Wisconsin -

This might seem like a big number for the Badgers to be laying at home, but I don't see this one being all that competitive. I'm not buying that Northwestern is just all the sudden back after a blowout win at home over a Bowling Green team that doesn't have a win this season, which includes a loss to a FCS school. 

I think the biggest indicator here is the Wildcats game against Duke, which they lost 17-49. Northwestern managed just 191 total yards in that game 7 of those 17 points came in the final minutes of regulation with the game well in hand. Wisconsin's defense is even better than the Blue Devils. 

The Badgers are 7th in the nation, giving up just 248.0 ypg and rank inside the Top 20 against both the run and the pass. They have really been good against the run. Wisconsin is allowing just 3.1 yards/carry and holding opponents 1.4 yards/carry under their average. Northwestern is a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. That was pretty evident in that loss at Duke, where they finished with a mere 22 rushing yards and 21 attempts. 

I don't think the Badgers light up the scoreboard here, but I think they score 24+ and they are going to be in prime position to cover, as I just don't see Northwestern eclipsing 10-points. There's a chance Wisconsin could go for even more, but either way I like them to win by at least two touchdowns. Take Wisconsin! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on South Florida UNDER

I think the value here is clearly with the UNDER on this massive total for Saturday's action between East Carolina and South Florida. The Bulls have a high-powered offense that has scored 30+ in all 4 games this season and will be taking on a ECU defense that has allowed at least 34 in all 4 of their games, including 64 to Va Tech. 

I just don't see the Bulls being 100% focused for this one after a couple of prime time weekday games the last two weeks against Illinois and Temple. It's not like we haven't seen them come out flat before. Just look back to their opener when they trailed San Jose State 16-0 after 1 quarter. Add in this being a road game and early start time, I think we get a USF team that just goes through the motions. 

East Carolina figures to get for this game and we will need them to put up some kind of resistance here. I just don't think the offense will be able to do enough here to push this over the mark. All the attention goes to South Florida's offense, but the defense is playing lights out as well. The Bulls  rank 13th in the country, allowing just 263.8 ypg and are 3rd against the run (66 ypg). 

UNDER is 25-10-1 in the Bulls last 36 against a team with a losing record and 17-8-1 in their last 26 on the road. UNDER is also 11-4 in East Carolina's last 15 conference games. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Early Bird Total 'HEAVY HITTER' on Rice OVER

I think the books have really set the bar too low with the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between Pittsburgh and Rice. The Panthers come in having scored just 14, 21 and 17 points over their last 3 games, but those came against Penn State, Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech. 

Needless to say Pitt's offense is looking forward to this one, as they take on an Owls defense that is giving up 37.0 ppg and 472 ypg (88th). That's with half their games against UTEP and FIU, where they held them both to 14 or less. They gave up 62 in their opener against Stanford. While they only gave up 38 to Houston, that's only because the Cougars took their foot off the gas. Houston had 38 points with 4 minutes to play in the 2nd quarter. 

I don't think it's out of the question that the Panthers cover this total on their own, but I do think there's a good chance here the Owls contribute to this total. Rice will be facing a Pitt defense that ranks 114th in the country, ranking outside the Top 100 against both the run and the pass. Even if Rice struggles early, they should be able to score late when it gets out of hand. Take the OVER! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

No Analysis on late releases

5* NCAAF Big Ten 'TOTAL OF THE YEAR' Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER

I really like the value here with UNDER in Saturday's Big Ten clash between Northwestern and Wisconsin. These are two teams that take a lot of pride on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin features one of the elite units in the country.

The Badgers are 7th in the nation, giving up just 248.0 ypg and rank inside the Top 20 against both the run and the pass. They have really been good against the run. Wisconsin is allowing just 3.1 yards/carry and holding opponents 1.4 yards/carry under their average. Northwestern is a team that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. That was pretty evident in their loss at Duke, where they scored just 17 points and finished with 22 rushing yards and 21 attempts. 

Northwestern's defense isn't on the same level as the Badgers and actually comes in giving up some big numbers against both the run and the pass, but came out with a different attitude after that blowout loss to the Blue Devils. Factor in they are coming off a bye and I like their chances of keeping what I feel is a pretty average Wisconsin in check. The Wildcats also have a history of not letting the Badgers get going offensively, as they have held them to 21 or fewer points each of the last 3 seasons. In the last 3 games, the highest combined total was 44 and I don't see them getting there this year. 

UNDER is 9-1 in Northwestern's last 10 games in the month of September, 8-1 in their last 9 off a home win and 11-3 in their last 14 off a cover. UNDER is also a perfect 9-0 in Wisconsin's last 9 games after they put together 2 straight dominant performances where they had 34 or more minutes in time of possession and 24+ first downs. Take the UNDER! 

4* Illinois/Nebraska Friday Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Nebraska/Illinois UNDER

I'm expecting a very boring and low-scoring Big Ten affair Friday night between Nebraska and Illinois. Both of these teams are struggling offensively out of the gate. The Cornhuskers come in ranked 90th in the country in total offense at just 378.5 ypg. The Fighting Illini are even worst, as they come in 121st in total offense at 179.7 ypg (rank outside Top 100 in both rushing and passing). 

Nebraska was able to put up some points in their first two games against Arkansas State and Oregon, but a lot of that had to do with the lackluster defense on the other side and the pace of the game. Neither of these teams tonight are looking to push the tempo and I expect to see a lot more punts than drives that end in points. 

I know Illinois' defensive numbers aren't great, as they are 101st in total defense. The thing is, a lot of that came from that ugly loss to USF, who is one of the better teams in the country with some electric playmakers on offense. They held a decent Ball State offense to just 21 in their opener and a WKU offense to just 7 in game 2. Given Nebraska's problems offensively and this being a home night game, I think we see an inspired Illinois defense that delivers a solid performance. That should be more than enough to keep this below the mark. 

UNDER is 10-2 in Nebraska's last 12 conference games and 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 20 or less in their previous game. UNDER is also in Illinois' last 6 after giving up 40+ points, 14-5 in their last 19 at home and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. Take the UNDER! 

4* ISU/Texas Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on Iowa State UNDER 

I think the value here is with the UNDER in Thursday's Big 12 matchup between Iowa State and Texas. Each of the last two meetings in this series have been very low scoring. In 2015, last time they played at ISU, the two combined for 24 points. Last year in Texas they only managed to combine for 33. 

I do think it's going to be a little more high-scoring than each of those, but we got a lot of wiggle room with this total. For the two to eclipse this mark, they are going to have average roughly 16 points, which is basically 2 touchdowns and a field goal each period. I just don't think we see that much scoring here. 

Keep in mind that both of these teams were off last week, so each has had extra time to prepare for the opponent. That's typically a bigger edge for the defenses, as they really can get into the tendencies of each team. Add in the extra energy level with this being a prime time game on Thursday night in front of an ESPN audience and we should see both offenses struggle to get going. 

UNDER is 9-1 in Texas' last 10 overall, 25-9 in their last 34 against the Big 12 and 20-6 in their last 26 against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Prime Time 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Iowa/Penn St UNDER

Late edition here with the UNDER in tonight's Big Ten showdown between Penn State and Iowa. These two teams played last year and combined for 55 and that was with the Nittany Lions hanging 41 on the Hawkeyes. I just don't see Penn State being able to have that same kind of success offensively against a good and fired up Iowa defense that is going to feed off the energy of the home fans in a rare night game. 

Iowa's defense is allowing less than 100 yards on the ground (97 ypg) and holding teams to a half-yard below their average. They also are allowing opposing QBs to complete just 57.4 % of their passes. Penn State is only allowing 3 yards/carry against the run and if you can slow down Iowa's rushing attack they really have a hard time sustaining drives. 

Iowa knows they have to avoid the big plays and make Penn State work for everything they get. We saw Pittsburgh hold them to just 312 yards a couple weeks back and I think this Hawkeyes defense is way better than the Panthers. I just see both teams having a hard time here getting the offense going and see this one finishing closer to 45 than 55. Take the UNDER! 

4* Florida/Kentucky SEC 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Kentucky +

I was on Kentucky last week in their 23-13 outright win as a dog on the road against South Carolina and love the Wildcats again this week at home against Florida. Kentucky has been trending in the right direction under Mark Stoops and this looks like this could be the year they take that step into being a legit threat to win the SEC East. Keep in mind they were in the running last year after a 4-2 start in conference. 

The Wildcats have a real weapon on offense in senior QB Stephen Johnson, who can not only beat you with his arm, but can attack defenses with his legs. Johnson has rushed it 18 times this year and is averaging 7.2 yards/attempt. I believe a mobile quarterback is key when going up against a great defensive team like Florida. 

The other key here is that the Wildcats have the defense that can keep the Gators offensive attack in check. Not that you need a lot to slow down a Florida offense that ranks 117th in rushing and 91st in passing. 

Add in the home crowd and Kentucky catching Florida in an ideal spot off that big rivalry game against Tennessee and I think they finally put an end to their 30-game losing streak (longest active streak in FBS). Take Kentucky! 

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Missouri/Auburn UNDER 

I really like the value here with Saturday's SEC cross matchup between Auburn and Missouri staying under the total. Missouri's offense turned some heads in their opener, which saw them hang 72 against Missouri St, but that proved to be just them taking advantage of a bad team. 

Since that huge offensive outburst, Missouri has totaled a mere 13 points at home to Auburn and 3 to Purdue (only 203 total yards). Now the Tigers go against the best defense they will have seen in Auburn, who is currently 2nd in the country in total defense, allowing just 201.7 ypg. That's no fluke either, as they held Clemson to just 14-points and 281 total yards. I just don't see any way that Missouri scores more than 14 on the road and wouldn't be shocked if they didn't score a point. 

If Missouri was able to get to 14, Auburn would have to score 47 for us to lose. I just don't see that happening. Auburn's highest output this year is 41 and last week they only managed 24 against Mercer. With a potentially huge game looming on deck at home against Miss St, I don't see Auburn running up the score either. 

UNDER is 12-4 in Auburn's last 16 games overall and 11-3 in their last 14 after failing to cover the spread in their last game. UNDER is also 13-4 in Missouri's last 17 conference games and 8-1 in their last 9 after 2 straight games where they failed to cover the spread. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Situational ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Georgia -

After an impressive 37-7 win at home over LSU last week, the public is going to be on the Bulldogs here as dog against Georgia, who despite being ranked No. 11 isn't a team getting a lot of publicity either. I just don't see Mississippi State being able to bounce back from that near perfect performance with a similar one on the road against a much better Georgia team. 

For me this one comes down to Georgia's defense under Kirby Smart and Mel Tucker being too much for Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald to overcome. A lot of what Mississippi State does offensively is built around their ability to get Fitzgerald going on the ground. Georgia has already faced a talented mobile quarterback and passed with flying colors. That would be Notre Dame's Brandon Wimbush, who they limited to 1 yard on 16 attempts. Wimbush has rushed for 313 yards and 5 scores in his two other games this season, including a always strong BC defense. 

I just see too much value here in Georgia at home laying less than a touchdown. Keep in mind Georgia is 51-14 at home SU over the last 10 years and the home team in this series has gone 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Georgia! 

3* NCAAF Afternoon 'ODDSMAKERS ERROR' on TCU +

I just think we are getting too much value on TCU to pass up a play on the Horned Frogs. No question Oklahoma State has looked impressive, but let's not get too carried away with how easy it's been. This team is going to be tested and it's a lot harder to blow teams out inside conference play. Especially a talented team like TCU, who has had a pretty impressive start of their own. 

The Horned Frogs outgained Jackson State 542 to 65 in a 63-0 blowout win to start the year, followed that up with a convincing 28-7 win on the road over Arkansas and then beat SMU by 20. I know it's early, but they are ranked inside the Top 20 in both total offense and total defense. 

TCU head coach Gary Patterson will put together a game plan here to slow down the Cowboys' high-flying offensive attack. Part of it will be the scheme defensively. The other will be the offense sustaining drives and keeping them off the field. 

Dating back the Horned Frogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on the road against a team with a winning home record, 20-10 ATS in their last 30 as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 as a road dog. Take TCU! 

5* NCAAF Mid-American (MAC) 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Miami +

I think now is the perfect time to jump on the RedHawks here as a pick'em against Central Michigan. A lot of people were on this Miami team coming into the year, but the buzz around this team is no longer there after a 1-2 start with a loss to a Marshall team that went 3-9 last year and a loss to Cincinnati that won 4 games.

The thing is both of those teams are greatly improved this year. Marshall has went on to cover at NC State and posted a shutout win over Kent State. Also, the RedHawks gave that game away against the Thundering Herd. Miami outgained Marshall 429 to 267 and had a 25-15 edge in first downs (Marshall had 3 non-offensive TDs). As for Cincinnati, that's a game they should have won. Miami had a 17-6 lead with less than 5 minutes to play. They gave up a 75-yard TD drive then threw a pick-6 with 1:07 to play to lose 17-21. 

I just feel we are getting value here, as Miami is getting treated like a 1-2 team when they really should be 3-0. This is simply a game they can't afford to lose and I don't think they will. Central Michigan is 2-1, but were fortunate to beat Rhode Island at home in their opener, beat up on Kansas and were just blown out by Syracuse. 

Miami's defense ranks 31st in the country (Top 40 vs both run and pass), while the Chippewas are 118th (Outside Top 100 vs both run and pass). CM has a good passing attack, but won't be able to do enough here to keep pace with a much better RedHawks team. Take Miami (OH)! 

4* Utah/Arizona CFB Late Night 'BAILOUT'  on Utah -

I look for the Utes to go into Tucson and lay a beating on the Wildcats tonight. Utah is a team that I feel is flying under the radar right now, as not much was expected out of the Utes with just 9 starters back from last year. Kyle Whittingham has done a tremendous job in Salt Lake City and there's a lot of excitement about this year's team. 

Utah has always had a strong defense due their ability to recruit and develop kids on that side of the ball. In year's past they have just tried to let their defense win them games by grinding out games. This year's team has a different feel, as they are taking a different approach on offense behind maybe the best kept secret in college football in sophomore quarterback Tyler Huntley, who beat out last year's starter Troy Williams (Sr) and Alabama transfer Cooper Bateman. 

Huntley has been electric so far, throwing for 868 yards with an impressive 72% completion rate and 7.82 yards/attempt. However, it's his ability to run the ball that really makes him special, as he's already got 212 yards and 3 scores on the ground (puts him on pace for just under 1,000 yards rushing). He threw for 300 yards and rushed for 89 against BYU and while the Utes only won that game 19-13, they outgained the Cougars by almost 200 yards (had to settle for 4 field goals). 

I think he has a big game here against an average Arizona defense and most importantly, I see Utah's defense making life miserable for a Wildcats offense that relies so much on their ability to run the ball. The Utes are built to stop the run defensively behind arguably the best d-line in the Pac-12 and one of the best in the country. Take Utah! 

3* Temple/USF NCAAF ATS 'ANNIHILATOR'  on Temple +

I think we are seeing an inflated line here, as the books know the public will want zero to do with Temple against a USF team that they have been backing with regularity early on, as they were one of the small conference teams everyone was talking about coming into the year. They will definitely be on the Bulls here after they covered a big spread on the road last week in a weekday prime time game against Illinois. 

The thing is, that was the first game USF covered. Inflated lines have played a roll, as his this teams lack of focus. They were down 16-0 to San Jose State and were tied 17-17 with FCS foe Stony Brook in the 4th quarter. 

USF's has really benefited in their first 3 games from winning the turnover margin, as they are +6, having forced at least 2 in each game. While Temple hasn't looked great, they have taken care of the ball, with their only turnover coming on a fumble against Notre Dame. 

Bulls are just 2-10 ATS the last 12 times they have played a Thursday night game and 0-4 in their last 4 after scoring more than 40 points. The Owls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a SU win and 6-1 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record. Take Temple! 

4* Kentucky/S Carolina SEC "GAME OF THE WEEK' on Kentucky +

After a closer look at this one, I like the value here with Kentucky catching a full touchdown against the Gamecocks. South Carolina has looked the more impressive team in the first two games, winning as underdogs against both NC State and Missouri. 

The Gamecocks won both of those contests despite getting outgained on the field. They lost the yardage battle 246 to 504 (-250) against NC State and 359-423 (-64) to Missouri. The reason South Carolina has been able to win is they have got outstanding special teams play and have won the turnover battle (+4). The problem is that's a difficult way to win and on top of that do so by more than a TD. 

This could also be a bit of a letdown spot for South Carolina, as Kentucky hasn't looked great in a 24-17 win over Southern Miss and a mere 27-16 win against Eastern Kentucky at home. I got confidence in this Wildcats team and believe their best days are still to come, as we are talking about a team that returned 17 starters from a 7-win team a year ago. One that beat South Carolina 17-10, despite losing the turnover battle (-2). Take Kentucky! 

4* NCAAF Small Conference ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Toledo -

I like the value here with the Rockets laying single-digits at home against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have become a popular public team the past couple years, due to the high-scoring offense and success against the spread (16-10). While they got destroyed by Oklahoma St 59-24 in their opener, most just chalk that up as a result of how good the Cowboys are. They then went out and beat Lafayette 66-42 and cover last week. 

The thing is, I'm not 100% convinced Oklahoma State is as good as people think and let's not overreact to a win over a Sun Belt team that allowed 48 in their opener to Southeastern Louisiana. What's clear in Tulsa's first two games is they play zero defense. That certainly makes it a lot easier for a team to not just lose, but to lose badly. Let's also not forget that we are talking about a Golden Hurricane team that lost a ton from last year, including two 1,000 yard receivers, 1,600 yard rusher and their starting QB who threw for over 3,300 with 32 TDS. 

Toledo was arguably the best team in the MAC not named Western Michigan last year and that was a rare special season for a team out of this conference. While they lost a stud in Kareem Hunt, they have a senior QB that threw for over 4,000 yards with a 45-9 TD-INT ratio. He's going to pick apart this Tulsa defense, which has allowed each of his first two opponents to throw for 300+. The Rockets D isn't elite, but should be able to get off the field enough here at home to turn this into a blowout. Take Toledo! 

3* NCAAF Situational 'UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG' on Baylor +

This just shows you how fast a team can go from being a team the public lines up to take each week to won that is catching more than two touchdowns against Duke. No disrespect to the Blue Devils, but this is the first time since 2009 that Baylor has been a dog of 14 or more against an unranked opponent since 2009 (95 games). For those wondering, that was at Missouri and they were a 14-point dog, won outright 40-32. 

I'm sure you are asking what about the Bears losing to Liberty at home as a 31-point favorite and then losing to UTSA 10-17 as a 11-point favorite the next time out. It wasn't going to be lighting in a bottle to start out with Matt Rhule, but he's a really good coach and should have his players full attention from here on out. 

The other big key here is that Baylor is making a change at quarterback, which is a good thing. Rhule tried to make it work with Arizona transfer Anu Solomon, who was completing less than 44% of his passes. In comes sophomore Zach Smith who started 4 games last year as a true and completed 59%. Most notably a great showing in their bowl game against a good Boise State defense. He gives this offense life. 

While I see a hungry Baylor team looking to prove themselves, Duke is in a very difficult spot. They just rolled Northwestern 41-17 in game where they were getting zero love at home. They are feeling really good about themselves and could fall in the trap of thinking the Bears will be a pushover and start shifting their attention to next week's game against rival UNC. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Blue Devils went down outright. Take Baylor! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on N Ill/Nebraska UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for this one. Like a lot of the midwest teams, Nebraska and Northern Illinois are built on the running game. At least that's how they want to play. The Cornhuskers had to throw it 41 times vs Oregon and Tanner Lee was 19 of 41 with 4 picks. The Huskies had to throw it against BC and were just 16 of 39 passing.

I believe both will be able to at least move the chains on the ground, but will have to work for it. That's going to lead to a lot more time running off the clock between plays (less stoppage on first downs) and fewer possessions. Exactly what we are looking for when playing the UNDER. 

I also like this spot for Northern Illinois' defense, as they catch Nebraska in a letdown spot after that huge game against Oregon last week. Key here is the Huskies have the talent and coaching to make this a dogfight and possibly pull off the upset. 

The big concern with the under is the fact that Nebraska has allowed 36 to Arkansas and 42 to Oregon. I just don't think Northern Illinois is the kind of offense that can put up those kind of numbers. Arkansas St threw it 68 times for 415 yards and Oregon's talent and tempo are going to put up points against just about every defense. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Non-Conference 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on Pittsburgh +

I believe the fact that Oklahoma State has looked so impressive early and Pittsburgh is coming off a 14-33 loss at Penn State, the line has been inflated too much not to take the Panthers. The Cowboys have looked good, but let's not overreact to wins over a Tulsa team that is down this year and a South Alabama team that trailed Ole Miss 47-13 before a couple of late scores to make it seem respectable. 

Keep in mind that these two teams played last year at Oklahoma State and while the Cowboys won, they did so by a final of 45-38 and were a mere 3-pt favorite in that contest. 

If you didn't watch the Pitt/Penn St game you would think the Panthers got dominated on the field. That wasn't the case at all. Pitt actually outgained Penn State 342-312. You might also see they needed OT to escape with a  28-21 win at home against Youngstown State. That program played in the FCS Championship Game last year. 

I believe that if the Panthers can slow down the Nittany Lions and their explosive playmakers, they can do the same to the Cowboys. The fact that Oklahoma State has faced zero resistance from either defense they have faced could make it tough for them to adjust to actually having to work for first downs. Throw in a lookahead game against a now ranked TCU team and this game being in Pitt, I wouldn't be shocked if the Panthers won this one outright. Which is why I love them catching two touchdowns. Take Pittsburgh! 

5* NCAAF Friday Night 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on South Florida - 

The public is jumping on the Illinois bandwagon after their 20-7 win at home over Western Kentucky as a 7-point dog. They see too many points against a USF team that has failed to cover each of their first two games. I'm going to the other way here and backing the Bulls in what I feel will be a blowout. 

The thing with South Florida is expectations were sky-high this season, as most were calling for them to be undefeated. For them to struggle on the road against San Jose State and at home against Stony Brook is nothing to worry about. They knew they just had to show up to win those games. I expect to see a different intensity from this team when they take the field at home in a prime time night game on ESPN.

The win for Illinois of the Hilltoppers looks good on paper, but keep in mind that WKU is down this year with just 10 returning starters and most importantly lost head coach Jeff Brohm, who already appears to have had a huge impact on the Boilermakers.

Keep in mind the Illini could have easily lost their opener at home to Ball State, a game they trailed going into the 4th quarter and were outgained on the contest 375 to 216. I just don't see Illinois being able to keep pace offensively with Quinton Flowers and the Bulls high-powered offense. Take USF! 

5* NCAAF Week Night 'TOTAL OF THE MONTH' on Boise St/New Mexico UNDER

The books have made a big mistake here with this total. I don't see near enough offense given the circumstance for this to eclipse the mark set by the books. What is going to get overlooked by a lot of people with Boise State is just how good their defense has played. They see they just allowed 47 to Washington State last week. However, 16 of those came in OT and they didn't give up a TD to a great Cougars offense until the 4th quarter. Not to mention the offense aided Wash St with an interception that was returned for a TD. 

That also happened in their opener against Troy, when another pick-six was thrown. Keep in mind they held a good Trojans offense to just 6 points and 215 total yards. Now they face a New Mexico team that went into the 4th quarter last week trailing their in-state rival 30-5. Sure they rallied to make it 28-30 and actually could have tied it had they converted a 2-pt play. I think that has a lot more to do with the Aggies letting their foot off the gas and it nearly biting them. 

Given how the Broncos just had one of the more tougher losses to swallow you will find all season, the fact that they will be constantly reminded of loss at home to New Mexico last time they were here and this is a nationally televised game (only one on the schedule) at home with new uniforms, I expect the defensive intensity to be there. 

The key here is the offense for Boise State doesn't figure to be scoring every time they touch the ball. Starting QB Brett Rypien is hurt and it looks like he won't play. That limits the playbook some. As long as we can avoid a bunch of non-offensive scores, I think this finishes closer to 45 than 60. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAF Late Night 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Oregon St -

A lot of people are going to look at this line and think the wrong team is favored. A big reason for that is the public has been drawn to Minnesota due to them hiring Fleck. They backed the Gophers big in their opener against Buffalo and despite coming up empty handed will likely be back on them here.

While I think Fleck is a good coach and his style will work in Minnesota, I don’t see this being a situation where he excels in year one. More times than not it takes a coach two or even three years to really start to see a big change on the field. There are some that meet exceptions right away under a new coach, but given how they played at home against Buffalo. A team that won 2-games last year. I think they are primed to disappoint this season. 

This is also not your typical road game for Minnesota and the long travel for this game certainly won’t benefit them. On the flip side of this, Oregon State is a team that gained a lot of confidence and momentum with that late score to pull out a win at home. Not to mention the Beavers have 15 starters back from last year’s team, which actually outgained the Gophers 317 to 280 in defeat.

The concern with Oregon State is clearly their defense, but Minnesota is clearly a team they can contain. Minnesota was unable to single out one guy at quarterback and are rotating two guys. That rarely seems to work out well, as it becomes very difficult for the offense to get into any kind of rhythm. Nether really played great in the opener. The Gophers could really struggle to move the ball if they can’t get their running game going on the road. They only managed 3.3 yards/carry against what most see as a bottom tier MAC program. 

At the same time, I look for the Beavers offense to have some success here. Oregon State is averaging 5.0 yards/carry on the ground and Jake Luton has completed 63% of his attempts.

Go against your gut and roll the Beavers at home in a revenge game against an overrated Minnesota squad. Take Oregon State!

5* Stanford/USC Pac-12 'GAME OF THE MONTH' on USC -

I think the books are setting a trap here and begging the public to load up on Stanford here, when the smart play is to take the Trojans at home in a huge revenge spot. The fact that USC struggled with Western Michigan has a lot of people second-guessing this team. On the flip side, Stanford left nothing to doubt in their 62-7 win over Rice, as McCaffrey's replacement, Bryce Love, racked up 180 yards on just 13 carries. 

Had P.J. Fleck still been on the sidelines for Western Michigan, I think that win over the Broncos wouldn’t feel like a disappointment. The thing is most of those kids were Fleck’s recruits and that team is a lot better than people think. You also have to think that USC was looking just a little ahead to this game. Not only do they have big time revenge against the Cardinal, but this feels like a must-win for their program if they want to get back to that elite level. 

The biggest thing a lot of people are going to see is how USC’s defense couldn’t stop the run against Western Michigan. They will assume that Stanford is going to be able to run all over them. A more focused and motivated Trojan defense should have a much better showing in this one. Keep in mind it’s the defense that feeds the most off the energy of the crowds in these big time nationally televised games.

As for the Cardinal’s blowout win over Rice, don’t read too much into that. The Owls’ program has been on a free fall of late and coming off a 3-9 campaign. They are once again picked to finish near the bottom of the C-USA.

I’m one that believes this USC team is the real deal. They have now won 10 straight dating back to last year’s 9-game winning streak to end the season. Of those 10 wins, 8 have come by more than a touchdown. Don't be surprised if this one turns into a blowout. Take USC! 

4* S Carolina/Missouri SEC 'GAME OF THE WEEK' on Missouri -

We are seeing a big overreaction here with South Carolina. The Gamecocks pulled off a surprising 35-28 upset win over NC State in their opener, but were fortunate to get the win and cover. South Carolina really got a boost early when they returned the opening kick for a score, which ended up being the difference in the game. The most telling stat is that the Gamecocks were outgained 504-246 and NC State had a 29-12 edge in first downs. 

I believe that was more of NC State beating themselves than South Carolina being a team to really consider a threat in the SEC East. I look for a big regression here on the road. More than anything, I don't see them keeping pace with Missouri's high-powered scoring attack, as the defense clearly isn't a stretch if they give up over 500 yards to NC State. 

The Tigers could very well have one of the elite scoring attacks in the country. Missouri returned 10 starters on offense, including junior quarterback Drew Lock, who has now started 21 games. I know it was against Missouri State, but the 72 points and 815 total yards of offense, led by Lock's record breaking performance that saw him throw for 521 yards and 7 touchdowns. 

Another huge factor here is revenge, as the Tigers lost last year's meeting 21-31 in Columbia. Revenge is a huge motivator in these power 5 conference, especially the SEC. The Tigers get their revenge on Saturday! Take Missouri! 

3* Auburn/Clemson ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Auburn +

I really like the value here with Auburn as a road dog against Clemson. I really think this Auburn team is going to surprise a lot of people and wouldn't be shocked if they won the SEC West (host Alabama). A lot of people overlook just how good this Auburn defense is. They went from giving up 26 ppg in 2015 to just 17.1 ppg in 2016 and did it with just 6 starters back. The big jump came in the first year under new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele. 

They got 7 starters back, with a lot of the key pieces returning and the unit looked the part in their opener. Auburn held Georgia Southern to just 78 yards of total offense for the game. That's tells me that unit is locked in, to have that kind of intensity against a team they just have to show up to beat, especially with the defending champs on deck. 

Everyone is singing the praises of Kelly Bryant after he impressed in Clemson's 56-3 blowout win over Kent State at home. I think it's going to be a lot harder for Bryant and Clemson's offense to get going against Auburn. Keep in mind they only scored 19 points on them last year with Deshaun Watson. 

I know Clemson has a strong defense, but this Auburn offense is the real deal. Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham finally gives Malzahn the signal caller needed to really get this offense rolling like it did in the past. Stidham should be able to pick apart defenses, given how much opposing teams are going to have to respect the run. Auburn rushed for 351 yards without their best roster in Kamryn Pettway (suspended for opener) and had his top backup for just a half. I look for Pettway to wear down Clemson's defense, who I think will be on the field a lot. Take Auburn! 

3* NCAAF Vegas ATS 'SHOCKER' on Iowa St +

After a closer look at this matchup, I think the smart play here is one ISU catching the field goal at home against their in-state rival. The betting public is pounding Iowa and the books still have a very enticing line available on the Hawkeyes laying just 3-points. That's a good sign the books believe the Cyclones won't just cover, but win this game outright. 

The Hawkeyes had some impressive moments in last week's 24-3 win at home over Wyoming, but they caught some fortunate breaks that make that final look worse than it was. Iowa's offense left a lot to be desired. New starting QB Nathan Stanley completed 8 of 15 for just 125 yards. Akrum Wadley rushed for 116 yards, but Iowa only had a 138 on the ground in 41 attempts (3.4 yards/carry). Wyoming did return 8 starters on defense, but they gave up 204 ypg and 5.3 yards/carry. 

I think the home crowd and extra motivation that comes from this rivalry game, the Cyclones defense will be able to hold their own. I also think Iowa State's offense is one that could give the Hawkeyes trouble. The Cyclones have a lot of playmakers on offense, including one of the Big 12's best wide outs in Allen Lazard. I think they can advantage of a secondary that lost 3 starters from one of the better pass units in 2016. Take Iowa State! 

5* NCAAF Friday Night 'NO LIMIT' Top Play on Ohio +

I think a lot of people are going to look at the fact that Purdue was ultra competitive against Louisville as a sign that this team is legit. With that they will assume they should be able to win by at least a touchdown in their home opener over a MAC team. Winning 59-0 over a crap FCS school isn’t going to sway the public towards the Bobcats.

The thing is, Ohio is more than capable of winning this game outright. This has the makings of one of the Bobcats better teams in the Frank Solich era (13th year). This team played Western Michigan tough in the MAC title game last year, losing 23-29 as a 17-point dog, so there's clearly some talent here. 

They aren’t going to be the least bit intimidated playing on the road against a team like Purdue. They won at Kansa by 16 last year and lost by single-digits at Tennessee.

A big concern I have with Purdue is them suffering a letdown. Even if you are big underdog, letting a 8-point lead slip away in the final 25 minutes is going to hurt. They could also be looking ahead to a big road game at Missouri next week, followed by their Big Ten home opener against the Wolverines.

Another concern for me is the Purdue offense. While the score was close against Louisville, they only had 51 rushing yards on 21 attempts (2.4 yards/carry). A big part of the struggles on the ground had to do with last year’s leading rusher Markell Jones suffering an injury. One that will keep him out of this game. The Boilermakers also committed 4 turnovers and were aided by 16 Louisville penalties for 110 yards. That game could have been a lot uglier than it was. 

It’s also worth noting that Ohio is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference road games, while Purdue is a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing on 6 or less days of rest. Take the Bobcats! 

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on Georgia Tech/Tennessee UNDER

I don't think there will be enough offensive fireworks for these two teams to eclipse this total in Monday's Labor Day primetime matchup. Both teams have a lot of experience and talent back on the defensive side of the ball. Tennessee returns 7 starters and several others who got playing time after they were hit hard with injuries on this side of the ball last year.

A lot of people are going to see they gave up 5.0 yard/carry and over 200 yards/game on the ground and think Georgia Tech is going to run all over them. I'm not buying it. If you look back at the first 5 games when Tennessee was 5-0 and were still relatively healthy, they played the run very well. You also can't ignore the fact that Georgia Tech has to replace talented starting QB Justin Thomas, who was one of the better passers in the Paul Johnson era. 

As for the Volunteers offense, they too have to replace a talented starting QB in Joshua Dobbs, as well as two really gifted backs in Kamara and Hurd and star wide out Malone. Not to mention they are learning a new system under first year OC Larry Scott. 

We know Georgia Tech is going to run the football and I expect Tennessee to do the same behind one of the more talented o-lines in the country. That's ideal for a low scoring game, as each team will eat up clock and possessions will be limited. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAF Situational ATS 'NO BRAINER' on Virginia Tech -

The transition from long-time head coach Frank Beamer to Justin Fuente couldn’t have went any better for Hokies fans. Fuente stepped in and guided the program to a 10-4 record, which included a trip to the ACC title game and 35-24 bowl victory. Quite an improvement for a team that hadn’t posted a double-digit win campaign since 2011.

Virginia Tech did lose a lot from last year, but still have 12 returning starters. The defense should once again be top notch under Bud Foster, as 7 of those starters return on that side of the ball. As for the offense, I have all the confidence in Fuente piecing together the new pieces and still have this team averaging over 30+ ppg. 

As for West Virginia, I think they come in way overrated this season. They were fortunate to get to 10 wins last year. They had 4 wins by 4-points or less, plus some other close calls that went their way. Not to mention you could argue the three best teams they faced were Oklahoma St, Oklahoma and Miami and they weren’t competitive in any of those matchups, losing all 3 by at least 17. 

I just think the addition of Grier is getting way to much respect given the circumstances. He’s not playing with the same talent that he was at Florida. At the same time, the Hokies figure to be even better on defense in 2017. 

Let’s also not overlook the fact that West Virginia only has 3 starters back on defense that wasn’t as good as the 24.0 ppg they allowed. Not to mention they basically have a whole new front on defense. It was so bad they had to go out and bring in a bunch of Juco transfers to try and be competitive.

Mountaineers are a mere 6-15 ATS in their last 21 versus the ACC. They are also just 1-4 in their last 5 non-conference games and 0-4 in their last 4 on a neutral site. Take Virginia Tech! 

3* Situational Over/Under Total 'NO BRAINER' on Troy/Boise St OVER 

I believe the real value in Saturday's clash between the Troy Trojans and the Boise State Broncos is on it going over the total.

Boise State averaged 33.8 ppg and 473 ypg last year and that’s one of their lower totals in recent seasons. I look for an uptick offensively in 2017. The offense will be firmly in the hands of junior starting QB Brett Rypien. A two time 1st-Team All-MWC signal caller with a 44-16 TD-INT ratio in his first two seasons.

He’s going to have to do more with the loss of star running back Jeremy McNichols (314 attempts, 1,709 yards, 23 TDs). That means bigger chunk plays and series that don't eat up a ton of clock.

I'm not concerned with the fact that Troy held opponents to just 22.1 ppg last year. That’s aided by playing in the Sun Belt. While they return 6 starters on defense, they have to replace 5 of their top 7 tacklers. They are going to take a step back, plus you have to factor in playing on the road in a tough environment. 

The key here is that I fully expect the Trojans offense to hold their own against the Broncos. Troy likes to play with some pace. Not a big surprise given their head coach use to be the OC at Texas Tech. They put up 33.7 ppg and 430 ypg last year, including 24 points and 386 yards against a dominant Clemson defense.

Boise State always fields a respectable defense, but with only 4 starters back in 2017, this figured to be one of their weaker units. They also haven’t been as good since former head coach Chris Petersen left for Washington. Keep in mind that this is now the 4th year removed from Petersen and his recruits.

OVER is 40-15 in the Trojans last 55 non-conference games and 22-9 in their last 31 road games in the month of September. Take the OVER! 

4* Michigan/Florida NCAAF 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Florida +

The public is jumping all over the Wolverines after the news of the players that will be suspended for Florida in this game. I believe it's created some big time value on the Gators, who I actually think are going to win this game outright. 

People forget how talented this Florida team has been on both sides of the ball the last two years. They simply have got next to nothing out of the quarterback position. Will Grier is the best they have had at QB under McElwain and he lasted just 5-games to open the 2015 seasons before getting suspended. I believe red-shirt freshman Feleipe Franks is on Grier's level and makes the Gators the team to beat in the SEC East. 

Michigan is well on it's way to being one of those teams that just reloads regardless of what they lost the previous season to the NFL or graduation. I just don't think they are there in year 3 under Harbaugh. The Wolverines have just 5 starters back and lost a ridiculous 31 lettermen. That's 10 more lettermen than Alabama has to replace. Experience means something and I just don't trust a young team in a huge game like this. 

Mistakes are going to be made by the Wolverines and in the end I think it will be turnovers that propels the Gators to the win. Note that underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have 6 or more returning starters than their opponent are 59-25 (70%) ATS in the first month of the season since 1992. Take Florida! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt Total 'ANNIHILATOR' on South Carolina UNDER

I just feel the books have set the total too high for this non-conference showdown between two Power 5 programs. South Carolina has 10 starters back on offense, but this is a team that doesn't figure to push the tempo and only averaged 20.8 ppg last year and that was with them scoring 34 against UMass and 44 against Western Carolina. They managed 14 or fewer points in 7 games. 

I think the Gamecocks will struggle to score here against an NC State team that should have one of the best defenses in the country. They certainly have one of the most talented defensive lines, which is going to give even the best offensive lines trouble and SC is far from elite upfront. 

The Gamecocks were respectable on the defensive side of the ball and I look for them to give NC State some trouble here. The Wolfpack are more conventional on offense, not trying to play at a ridiculous pace and air it out on every play. They only average 27 ppg last year, scoring 20 or fewer in 6 games. They get a lot back but I don't see them exploding against a SEC defense. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Friday Night ATS 'ANNIHILATOR' on Rutgers +

I like the value here with Rutgers as a massive home dog against No. 8 Washington. As expected the public is all over the Huskies, as they love to back Top 10 teams and fade programs like Rutgers who only won 2 games last year.

The thing is the line has been drastically inflated. Keep in mind that Washington was only a 26-point home favorite against Rutgers last year, which was also the season opener for both teams.

This is big game for the Scarlet Knights and 2nd year head coach Chris Ash. They want to show that they can compete with a top tier team. They weren't as outclassed in last year's game as the 48-13 final score would suggest. Rutgers held Washington to just 380 total yards and 17 first downs, while they had a respectable 30-4 yards and 21 first downs.

The offense has high hopes of taking a big step forward, as they believe they upgraded at QB with Louisville grad transfer Kyle Bolin. I also like the decision to make a change at OC, as they brought in former Minnesota HC Jerry Kill. I think the improvements on offense and the game being at home will be enough for the Scarlet Knights to keep this from being a massive blowout and cover the large spread. Take Rutgers! 

5*  NCAAF Vegas 'NO LIMIT' Total Top Play on Memphis UNDER 67

The forecast for this game is calling for heavy rain throughout the contest with winds blowing at close to 20 mph. The conditions simply aren't going to allow for either of these teams to open up their playbook. Each is going to have to run the football a lot more than they would like. I also think it keeps the heavy favorite in Memphis from worrying about running up the score to look good, but instead focusing on just getting out this game without any of their key players suffering an injury, especially given they have a big road game next week at UCF to open up AAC play. 

The biggest key here is that Memphis doesn't figure to be throwing the ball over the field, which would have likely led to a lot of quick scores. They are still going to have plenty of success on the ground, but that's going to keep the clock moving. As for the Warhawks, they could have a really hard time generating points. Memphis had some lackluster defensive efforts last year against the better teams they played, but were strong against the bottom feeders. While they allowed 455 ypg, they gave up fewer than 315 yards in 6 of their 13 games. ULM is one of those teams they can handle and the conditions here will only make that much harder for the Warhawks. Take the UNDER! 

*Play is still recommended at current line*

4* NCAAF Opening Saturday ATS 'NO BRAINER' on UMass -2

Most will be on Hawaii given they beat UMass late last year and had the much better overall record in 2016. The Rainbow Warriors went 7-7, getting to a bowl for the first time since 2010, while the Minutemen finished a mere 2-10. 

Forget the record, you have to take notice of how well UMass played at Hawaii, as they were only outgained by 20-yards and had a chance to win late. Mark Whipple has this program headed in the right direction and this has the makings of a breakout year with 15 starters back, including junior QB Andrew Ford, who threw for 2,665 yards with a 26-14 TD-INT ration in only 9 starts. 

Another huge factor here is Hawaii is not a good road team, due to how much they have to travel. They have had an especially tough time playing on the east coast. That combined with the huge revenge angle for UMass has me siding with the home team in this one. Take UMass! 

5* Clemson/Alabama National Championship Vegas Insider on Clemson

I think the value here is clearly with the Tigers catching almost a touchdown. Clemson proved last year they can hang with Alabama. In fact, you could argue they outplayed the Crimson Tide given the stats. Clemson had a 550 to 473 edge in total yards and 33-18 advantage in first downs. The thing is that there’s so much love for the SEC and Alabama, the books have no choice but to inflate this number.

There’s a lot of talk about how great this Crimson Tide defense is. There’s no denying it’s good, I just don’t know that it’s as elite as people think. The numbers going into the championship game aren’t all that far off from last year. They are allowing 11.4 ppg and 244 ypg. Last year they gave up 15.1 ppg and 276 ypg. The thing to keep in mind, is the SEC wasn’t nearly as good this year as it was in 2015.

Keep in mind that they went into the title game last season off a dominant defensive effort. They had just shutout Michigan State in a 38-0 win. Holding the Spartans to just 239 yards and 16 first downs.

One of the reasons that Alabama puts up such great defensive numbers in the SEC, is there’s not a lot of great QB’s. I know Browning got a lot of love, but I don’t think he’s what people make him out to be. The two best quarterbacks the Tide faced in the SEC were Chad Kelly from Ole Miss and Austin Allen from Arkansas. Kelly went 26 of 40 for 421 yards and 3 TDs, as the Rebels put up 43 points. Allen went 25 of 48 for 400 yards and 3 TDs.

Clemson’s Deshaun Watson is better than both of those guys. I think we are going to see the Tigers offense put up a big number here. The big difference this time around, is Alabama’s offense isn’t as good. Jalen Hurts just isn’t as big of a threat in the passing game as Coker was last season. In fact, this Crimson Tide offense reminds me a lot of what Clemson just faced in Ohio State.

If that wasn’t enough, Alabama fired offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin after the semifinal game. Steve Sarkisian will fill the void. Whether you like Kiffin or not, he’s an excellent offensive mind. He excelled at making adjustments mid game and getting the players in spots to succeed. I don’t know how big the drop off will be, but I don’t think it’s going to be as good as it would have been.

I also think there’s a big edge to the team who lost the first meeting in these rematch scenarios. I’ll gladly take the points as insurance, but I think the Tigers win this one outright. Take Clemson!

5* USC/Penn St Rose Bowl No Limit Top Play on USC -

I like the chances of history repeating itself. The last time these two teams played in the Rose Bowl was against each other in 2009 (2008 season). The Trojans cruised to a 38-24 victory (led 31-7 at half) as a 9-point favorite.

Playing in the Rose Bowl has worked out well for USC in the last few decades. This will the Trojans 8th appearance in this bowl since 1990. They have gone 7-1 with the last 4 wins all coming by at least 14 points. The only loss was to Texas in the 2005 BCS Championship Game. A big reason for their success is how close this is to home.

As impressive as the Nittany Lions’ run has been to close out the season, I just don’t trust them. They lost by 39 to Michigan and should have lost to Ohio State and Wisconsin. Those are hands down the 3 best teams in the Big Ten.

USC on the other hand is a team I feel is better than their record. The turning point of the season was when Sam Darnold replaced Max Browne at quarterback. If Darnold would have opened the season as the starter, I think USC would have won the Pac-12. What they did to Washington on the road, really speaks volumes to how good they are.

I just don’t see the Nittany Lions defense being able to stop USC’s offense. Not to take anything away from the Big Ten, but they don’t have a lot of elite quarterbacks. I believe Darnold is the best QB they will have played all season.

Another big thing here is the speed of the Trojans. We have seen a lot of these Big Ten teams struggle in non-conference play against these fast and athletic teams. Just look back to last year’s Rose Bowl, when Iowa was destroyed by Stanford. Speaking of that, Penn State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on a neutral site. Take USC!

4* W Michigan/Wisconsin Cotton Bowl ATS No Brainer on W Michigan +

I’m more than willing to “Row the Boat” on the Broncos at this price. I actually think Western Michigan can win this game outright. It reminds me a lot of last year’s Peach Bowl. Houston out of the AAC was a 7-point dog to Florida State. The Cougars didn’t just cover, they dominated in a 38-24 win. That was against a Seminoles team that went 10-2 in the regular season.

You could argue that this is even a more favorable spot for the Broncos than it was for the Cougars. Unlike Florida State, Wisconsin comes in off a loss in their conference championship game. Instead of playing in the Rose Bowl against USC, they are stuck facing a team from the MAC. It’s a very difficult spot to get up for, especially given how they lost in the Big Ten title game.

There’s still not many people who believe in this Western Michigan team. Sure they went 13-0, but they played in a MAC that wasn’t great this year. They did have two wins over Power 5 teams, but they were Illinois and Northwestern. To their credit, both were true road games. It’s worth noting that Northwestern team they beat played the Badgers tough.

What I think people are overlooking, is the Broncos played two of the Big Ten’s best last year. They lost by just 13 points to a Michigan State team that won the Big Ten and made the playoffs. They also lost by 26 at Ohio State, who was arguably the most talented team in the country. On top of all that, this year’s Broncos team is way better than last year’s squad.

The best and arguably the most surprising news with Western Michigan, is P.J. Fleck is still the head coach. A lot of people, including myself, thought he was going to be scooped up by a bigger and better program. That didn’t happen and I think it only adds more fuel to the fire for the Broncos.

I know the conference they played in helped, but you can’t just ignore the numbers. This Western Michigan team was 16th in total offense (496.7 ypg) and 25th in total defense (353 ypg). The most important thing, the Broncos aren’t going to be the least bit intimidated by the Badgers. They are going into this game believing they are the better team. Win or lose, I think it comes down to the wire and they keep it within a touchdown. Take Western Michigan!

5* Fiesta Bowl Game of the Year on Ohio State -2.5

I absolutely love catching the Buckeyes at less than a field goal here. I know there’s a lot of talk about how this is a bad matchup for Ohio State. I’m not buying it. This Buckeyes team has the talent on both sides of the ball to take down the Tigers.

There’s plenty of opinions out there about the Big Ten. Some believe it was the best conference in the country, others think it’s overrated. I’m in the middle. I think there’s some elite teams in the Big Ten, but also a lot of sub-par teams. The thing is, Ohio State proved itself against the best teams. They also have that impressive 45-24 win at Oklahoma to back it up.

Clemson on the other hand barely won at Auburn 19-13 earlier in the year. The win over Louisville also doesn’t look as impressive given how they finished. Florida State was also down this year.

The thing that stands out to me is how the Tigers defense struggled against the better teams in the ACC. They gave up 36 to Louisville, 34 to Florida State, 42 to Pittsburgh and 35 to Virginia Tech. The most the Buckeyes gave up in regulation all season was 24 points.

I know Deshaun Watson is a big time talent at quarterback, but I think he struggles here. We saw Ohio State make life miserable for Heisman finalist Baker Mayfield. In my opinion, it’s the best defense the Tigers have faced since playing Auburn in the opener. Watson wasn’t great in that game and I don’t think he will be here.

The biggest x-factor is Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer. He just doesn’t lose these high-profile games. Meyer is 3-1 in bowl games with the Buckeyes and 10-2 in his career. When he has extra time to prepare for an opponent, it’s usually not good for the other team. Meyer is 9-1 off a bye at Ohio State and 29-3 in his career as a head coach. He’s also 19-5 in neutral site games and 31-13 against Top 25 opponents. Take Ohio State!

4* Washington/Alabama Peach Bowl ATS Annihilator on Alabama -

There’s been quite a bit of action both ways since this line first opened at Alabama -14. It was quickly bet up and reached as high as 17. However, it’s since been bet down back to the original number at most places. I know this is a lot of points, but my money is on the Crimson Tide in this one.

It’s really been remarkable what Alabama has been able to do this season. Not only did the Tide go 13-0 with just 11 returning starters and a target on their back, they finished 10-3 ATS. It’s also worth noting they were 5-1 ATS in their 6 games away from home. I think that really tells you just how good this team is. The books were doing everything they could to inflate their spreads and it didn’t matter.

My hat goes off to Petersen and what he’s been able to with the Washington program. I just think they are outclassed here and will struggle to make this a game. There’s a couple of things that really concern me with the Huskies. They didn’t play anyone in non-conference play. At the same time, the Pac-12 was so watered down that Colorado ended up playing in the title game against them. The best team they played was USC and they lost by 13 at home and were outgained 400-276.

Now I know that USC team they lost to wasn’t the same team that Alabama played in their opener. However, you can’t simply ignore the fact that the Crimson Tide crushed the Trojans 52-6. Outgaining USC 465 to 194.

I just have a really hard time seeing the Huskies doing a lot offensively in this one. Alabama’s defense is one of the best I have seen in a long time. They allowed a whopping 58 points in their last 7 games combined. Only twice all season did they allow more than 16 points.

What makes the Crimson Tide defense so good is you simply can’t run on them. They led the country in run defense, allowing just 63.4 ypg and gave up just 2.1 yards/carry. Washington’s struggles against USC were a direct result of them not being able to run the ball. They finished with 17 yards on 27 attempts. Browning was under constant pressure and it got to him. I like the kid, but I don’t think he has a chance here.

I know Washington’s defense is legit, but I don’t think it’s good enough to keep Alabama in check. Especially given the circumstances. Without a running game, the Huskies offense will struggle to stay on the field. It will only be a matter of time before this Washington defense cracks. Like we saw against Florida, the Tide can turn a close game into a blowout in no time at all. Take Alabama!

4* Early Bird TaxSlayer Bowl Total No Brainer on Kentucky/Ga Tech OVER

I really like the value here on the total and this one going well over the mark set by the books. Both of these teams shouldn’t have much problem getting their offense going.

Kentucky comes in averaging 31.0 ppg and put up 35+ in 5 of their final 6 games. The Wildcats have a dynamic rushing attack that finished 16th in the country at 241.3 ypg. You also can’t sleep on the passing game. Stephen Johnson thew for 9 of his 12 touchdowns in the final 6 games. He finished the season off with 338 yards and 3 scores against Louisville.

They should find plenty of success against a Georgia Tech defense that wasn’t great. The Yellow Jackets finished 64th against the run and 74th against the pass. They gave up 4.8 yards/carry on the ground and allowed QB’s to complete 62.7% of their attempts.

On the flip side of this, Georgia Tech’s triple-option should make life miserable for UK. The Wildcats finished 108th in the country in run defense, giving up 225.0 ypg. I know they will have had a month to prepare for the option. The problem is if you haven’t played against it, it’s really hard to stop and the Wildcats simply aren't familiar with the option offense. I look for a lot of mental breakdowns for Kentucky’s defense, which is going to lead to big plays and quick scores.

It’s also worth pointing out that the Wildcats defense was much worse away from home. Kentucky gave up 37.4 ppg on the road this season. They allowed 5.8 yards/carry and 9.4 yards/pass attempt. Georgia Tech doesn’t throw a lot, but when they do it goes for big gains. I think they throw a few wrinkles in for this one that catch Kentucky off guard.

OVER is a perfect 7-0 in Kentucky’s last 7 non-conference games and 7-0 after an upset win as a double-digit dog. OVER is also 12-4-1 in Georgia Tech’s last 17 non-conference games. Take the OVER!

5* Michigan/Florida St Orange Bowl No Limit Top Play on Florida State +

This one is all about motivation, as I think most would agree Michigan is the better team. To the public this looks like a great bowl game to be in, but for the Wolverines it’s the last place they want to be. The loss to Ohio State in the finale was about as crushing of a blow as a team will face outside of losing in the playoffs.

It would be one thing if they got dominated by the Buckeyes, but they had to feel like they should have won. They led 17-7 in the 2nd half and Ohio State needed a game-tying field goal as time expired to force overtime. Not only do I think they FSU will keep this within 7-points, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the game.

It reminds me a lot of the 2013 Sugar Bowl, where No. 3 Alabama took on No. 11 Oklahoma. The Crimson Tide were a 15-point favorite, but simply didn’t want to be there. They had just lost their finale to Auburn, which essentially kept them out of the BCS title game. The average Joe bettor just doesn’t factor in how hard it is to play in a meaningless bowl game when you feel like you should be playing for a national title.

I understand that Florida State had lofty expectations of their own coming into the year. The big difference is their losses came early in the year. They have had more than enough time to come to terms with their season not going as anticipated. I see the Seminoles using this game as a measuring stick for where they are going into next season. Much like Oklahoma did in that game against Alabama.

As far as the numbers are concerned, this is one instance where they really aren’t all that important. It doesn’t matter what a team did in the regular season. If they aren’t motivated to play, the stats are meaningless. I just feel there’s way to much value here with Florida State catching a touchdown in this one. Take FSU!

4* UNC/Stanford Sun Bowl No Brainer on UNC +

With McCaffrey sitting out the bowl game, I think the value shifts to North Carolina. I completely understand McCaffrey’s decision, but I believe it negatively impacts the Cardinal here. You don’t just take away one of the elite players in the game an expect a team to not suffer some kind of setback. Especially given how much the offense is centered around him.

I just don’t think this sits well with his teammates and takes away some of the edge here for Stanford. Keep in mind this isn’t exactly the bowl game the Cardinal thought they would be playing in. They came in believing they were the best team in the Pac-12 and were going to be headed to the playoffs.

Even before the McCaffrey news, I had some concerns with the Cardinal. Sure they won 6 of their 7, including 5 straight to end the year. However, a big part of that was the schedule got a lot easier. Their final 5 games were against Arizona, Oregon State, Oregon, Cal and Rice. Not a single one of those teams finished with a winning record.

There will be plenty of people who point to North Carolina’s poor showing in last year’s bowl game. I actually think that works in the Tar Heels favor. I have to think there’s some level of pride here for UNC. It’s also a much different scenario than last season. The Tar Heels had won 11 straight before losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship. A game if they won, would have potentially got them into the playoffs. Few teams are going to play well in a bowl game given those circumstances.

I know it’s not a great matchup for UNC’s defense, which has struggled against the run. However, it’s not near as bad with McCaffrey not in action. I also don’t think enough credit is being given to the Tar Heels offense. UNC has a potential 1st round draft pick at QB and some other talented playmakers on offense. This team is going to put up some points here and I don’t know that Stanford can keep pace. Take North Carolina!

5* Alamo Bowl Vegas Insider Top Play on Colorado -

I like the Buffaloes in this one. I don’t love backing teams after losing in their conference championship game. However, Oklahoma State is in an identical spot. The Cowboys finale against Oklahoma was for the Big 12 title, it just wasn’t technically a title game. The key here is that Colorado isn’t going to hang their heads. They have a chance to bring the school their first bowl win since 2004 (first bowl game since 2007).

Not only do I think the Buffaloes have the motivational edge, I think they are the better team. Sure, Colorado got destroyed by Washington, but that’s an elite Huskies team. Their other two losses were on the road against Michigan and USC. Keep in mind they had a 21-7 lead early against the Wolverines and may have won that game if not for starting quarterback Sefo Liufau getting hurt.

Oklahoma State had a great season based on their record, but I’m simply not a believer in the Big 12. Outside of Oklahoma, who ran the table in conference play, the rest of the conference is average at best. Keep in mind this Cowboys team lost to Central Michigan at home. I know there was a bad call late, but that’s a team Colorado would destroy. Oklahoma St also had close calls against the likes of Iowa State (38-31) and Texas Tech (45-44). Two bad football teams.

I don’t put a lot of stock in Oklahoma State’s offense. I know they finished 17th in the country in total offense at 492.3 ypg, but the Big 12 doesn’t play defense. When it mattered against the best of the Big 12, they managed just 20 points against the Sooners.

Colorado’s defense is the real deal. The Buffaloes were 17th in total defense (328.3 ypg). They were solid against the run (145.8 ypg, 39th) and great against the pass (182.5 ypg, 13th).

On the flip side of this, Oklahoma State’s defense was awful this season. The Cowboys finished 108th out of 128 teams, giving up 457.0 ypg. Colorado is a well-balanced offense, ranking in the Top 50 in both rushing and passing. I look for them to have a field day in this one. Even if the defense doesn’t play great, they should get enough stops to win here by more than a field goal. Take Colorado!

5* Russell Athletic Bowl Vegas Insider Top Play on Miami -

West Virginia comes in ranked No. 16 in the country. There’s only 4 other Power 5 teams who lost fewer than 2 games, and they are all 4 in the playoffs. While Miami finished 8-4, their only signature win was against Pitt. The rest were all games they were suppose to dominate.

The thing with West Virginia is they aren’t as good as their 10-2 record would lead on. Outside of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, the Big 12 was a joke this season. The Mountaineers two conference losses came against both these teams and neither was close. They lost 20-37 at Oklahoma State and were destroyed at home 28-56 by Oklahoma.

The only other team in the Big 12 with a winning conference record was Kansas State. The beat the Wildcats 17-16 at home and were very lucky to do so. They trailed 3-16 going into the 4th quarter of that game. That was one of 4 wins by 4-points or less, as they were 4-0 in games decided by 7-points or less.

I mentioned earlier that Miami didn’t have any big wins outside of Pittsburgh. However, they destroyed the Panthers 51-28 at home. Keep in mind that’s a Panthers team that is currently ranked No. 23. The Hurricanes only bad loss was a 16-37 defeat at Virginia Tech. Which came after two heartbreaking losses to FSU (19-20) and UNC (13-20).

On top of all that, I think this is a great matchup for Miami. The Hurricanes have a legit defense that can give West Virginia trouble. Miami ranked 27th in the country in total defense, allowing just 355.2 ypg. Keep in mind that West Virginia’s offense struggled against the better teams they played.

At the same time, the Mountaineers defense wasn’t as good against the top teams. They really had their struggles against teams who attacked them through the air. West Virginia finished a mere 99th in the country against the pass (255.7 ypg). That’s a major concern for them here, as Miami finished 27th in passing at 273.5 ypg. Take Miami!

4* Military Bowl ATS No Brainer on Wake Forest +

How do you go against a team that’s covered 12 straight? It’s not easy, but I think the value is with the Demon Deacons in this one. I’m not a fan of teams hiring coaches before they play a bowl game, but it’s the way it is.

While I don’t think it came as a surprise to see Rhule land a job elsewhere, it still hurts. Especially for the kids who signed on at Temple to play for him with eligibility left. I just think it takes away all the momentum this team had going for them. It gives Wake Forest a shot at competing here and potentially winning this game outright.

It’s also worth noting that I would likely have leaned on the Demon Deacons even if Rhule hadn’t left. That’s because there’s no doubt in my mind that oddsmakers have inflated this line. They are as aware as anyone that Temple has covered 12 straight. They know the public will back them just because of that and have adjusted this line accordingly.

This is also a big number for a team to be laying in what has the makings of a defensive battle. The total for this game is just 41 points, so the books are clearly not expecting a lot of offense. That only adds even more value to Wake Forest catching double-digits.

I’m not going to go deep into the numbers here. The statistics are going to favor Temple just about anyway you look at them. This is all about the situation and it simply being a bad spot for Temple. One of Rhule’s biggest strengths was his ability to get his team prepared for their next opponent. Not having him on the sidelines is a massive loss for Temple, as he's the reason they are are where they are. Without him this team wouldn't have won the AAC. It just won’t be the same for the Owls leading up to this game. I also think the Demon Deacons have a lot to prove here with all the negative talk around the program with the plays getting leaked to opponents. Take Wake Forest!

4* Vanderbilt/NC State Independence Bowl ATS Annihilator on NC State -

This Wolfpack team has something to prove in this game. NC State could very easily have 9 or more wins. They had a 3-point loss at ECU earlier in the year, where they blew a 4th quarter lead. They had that crushing loss at Clemson, where they missed a chip shot field goal to win in regulation. The also had a 10-point lead in the 2nd half against FSU in a 20-24 defeat.

I know Vanderbilt played a tough schedule in the SEC, but you can’t overlook the slate of NC State. They were in one of the best divisions in football with Clemson, Louisville and Florida State. They also played a good Miami and North Carolina team out of the Coastal, who both finished up at 8-4.

It’s also worth pointing out that loss to Clemson really hit this team hard. They lost 3 straight after that crushing defeat. I believe the win over North Carolina really changed the attitude of the players. I look for them to carry over that momentum into the bowl game.

The biggest reason I like NC State in this game is their defensive line. It’s one of the best units in the country. Led by junior defensive end Bradley Chubb, who had 20.5 TFL and 9 sacks. That defensive front for the Wolfpack helped guide NC State to the 5th best run defense in the country. They allowed just 104.7 ypg and a mere 3.2 yards/carry.

I know Vanderbilt got their passing game going late in the year, but it’s a bit misleading. The two games were against Ole Miss and Tennessee. The Rebels finished 110th in total defense and the Volunteers were 109th. Those were also two unmotivated teams finishing out disappointing seasons. In the Commodores other 7 games against Power 5 opponents they failed to score more than 17 points. That includes games against the likes of Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Kentucky and Missouri.

Vanderbilt’s defense will come to play, but it’s a unit that can be had. The Commodores were 59th against the run and 85th against the pass. I just see NC State having the much easier time scoring and winning here by at least a touchdown. Take NC State!

5* Armed Forces Bowl Total of the Month on OVER

I actually think there's some great value here with the total and this one going well OVER the mark here. The perception here is that Navy's offense won't be able to produce like it had been now that they are down to their 3rd string quarterback, who only managed to guide the Midshipmen offense to just 17 points in a loss to Army. That came after Navy only managed to score 10 points in the ACC title game against Temple. While Louisiana Tech has a strong run defense, this triple-option offense is extremely difficult to stop, even when you have had ample amount of time to prepare. The Bulldogs also close out the season giving up 35, 39 and 58 points in their final 3 games.

I believe Navy can score in the 28-35 range, which should be more than enough to push this over the mark. Louisiana Tech has an explosive offense that can score quickly and this Navy defense has struggled all season giving up big plays and simply aren't that talented on that side of the ball. The Midshipmen finished 74th against the run (187.0 ypg) and 80th against the pass (242.2 ypg). They have allowed 30+ points in 6 of their last 9 games, 3x giving up 40 or more. Due to playing in the ACC title game and then having to turn around and play Army the next week, Navy hasn't had a lot of time to prep for this game, so don't expect the defense to be any better than it has been against top tier offenses like we have here with the Bulldogs.

OVER is a perfect 7-0 in the Bulldogs 7 games this season with a total posted between 63.5 and 70 points and 9-1 when it's more than 63. OVER is also 21-9 in La Tech's last 30 when facing a team that averages 34 or more points/game and 9-2 in Navy's last 11 when facing a high-powered offense that averages 425 or more yards/game. Take the OVER!

4* Poinsettia Bowl ATS Annihilator on BYU -

It’s hard to not root for Wyoming given their improbable run in 2016, but this is about making money. I believe laying the big number with the Cougars gives us the best chance of profiting in this one.

While I’m sure Wyoming is excited about getting to a bowl game, this is unfamiliar territory. I also think it’s a tough spot for the Cowboys. They put everything they had into the MWC title game and to lose by just 3-points will be tough to bounce back from.

You could argue that BYU isn’t going to be excited about playing a team like Wyoming. I’m not buying that for a second. While the Cougars have been to 12 straight bowl games, they haven’t won one since 2012. That means most of the players on this roster have only tasted defeat in their bowl experiences.

The last two bowl losses haven’t sit well. Two years ago they lost 48-55 to Memphis in double-overtime at the Miami Beach Bowl. Last year they lost 28-35 to rival Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. A game in which they fell behind 35-0 on some fluke plays in the 1st quarter. I expect this team to show up in a big way here. Not only can they end their bowl losing streak, they can give head coach Sitake his first bowl win as a coach.

Not only do I think BYU has the motivational edge, but I think they have the advantage on the field. The Cougars will be without starting QB Taysom Hill. However, backup Tanner Mangum is more than capable of leading the offense. Especially, given he has an elite running back to hand it off to. Jamaal Williams has rushed for 1,165 yards and 11 scores. He’s already become BYU’s all-time leading rusher. I look for him to be extremely motivated to end his career on a high note.

He shouldn’t have much trouble doing just that. Wyoming’s defense is one of the worst in the country. The Cowboys ranked 88th against the run (202.7 ypg) and 106th against the pass (261.3 ypg). They were also 105th in points allowed, giving up 34.8 ppg.

On the flip side of the ball, BYU’s defense is built to slow down this Wyoming offense. The Cowboys are a team that wants to run the football, as they averaged 208.5 ypg. That plays right into the strength of the Cougars defense. BYU ranked 8th in the country against the run, allowing just 108.4 ypg.

So while the Cowboys figure to have a hard time stopping BYU’s offense, the Cougars should get plenty of stops. I believe that will be enough for the Cougars to win here by 14-plus. Take BYU!

5* Boca Raton Bowl NO LIMIT Top Play on Memphis +

A big reason why I like the Tigers has to do with Brohm’s departure. While the players understand the decision, it’s not one they like. A lot of these kids came to Western Kentucky because of him. Him leaving really takes away the edge and motivation this team was playing with.

Brohm’s absence hurts the Hilltoppers from an emotional point of view, as well as in the X’s and O’s. Not only was he the head coach, but he served as the offensive coordinator. Play-calling will fall on the shoulders of WR’s coach Bryan Ellis. Nothing against him, but I don’t see the offense having the same rhythm to it.

It’s also worth noting that there was reason to like Memphis in this game even before the news. While Western Kentucky has an explosive offense, they are vulnerable defensively. I know they finished 37th in total defense (367.8 ypg) and 39th in scoring (24.1 ppg). However, a lot of that had to do with their schedule. They played a lot of really bad offensive teams this season. Rice, Houston Baptist, FAU, FIU, North Texas and Marshall just to name a few.

When up against a quality offense points and yards were easy to come by for the opposition. While I don’t think Memphis is as good offensively as their numbers, they are a talented group. Led by one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Riley Ferguson. He completed 63.8% of his attempts for 3,326 yards with 28 TD’s to just 9 INT’s. Ferguson torched Houston in the Tigers finale, throwing for 409 yards and 4 scores. Memphis as a team was 33rd in total offense (461.5 ypg) and 17th in scoring (39.5 ppg).

Given how both of these teams have struggled defensively, I think you have to take your chances with Memphis in this spot. The Tigers are going to be the more focused and better coached team leading up to this game. Take Memphis!

5* Miami Beach Bowl Veges Insider Top Play on OVER

This has all the makings of a shootout, with both teams putting up big offensive numbers. All you really have to do is look at Tulsa’s results this season to see why the over should be a good play. The Golden Hurricane feature one of the most explosive offenses in the country. They rank 6th in the country in total offense (522.6 ypg) and 11th in scoring (41.3 ppg). Tulsa has scored at least 30 points in all but one game this season. That being an early season road game against a superior Ohio State team.

I look for Tulsa to score 40+ here against the Chippewas. Central Michigan’s defense has been exposed on a number of occasions. They allowed 49 to both Virginia and Western Michigan. They also gave up 31 to Toledo and 37 to Miami (OH).

Not only have the Golden Hurricane been putting up a lot of points, they have allowed quite a few as well. Tulsa defense ranks 80th in total defense (432.4 ypg) and are T-89th in points allowed (31.5 ppg). They are equally as bad against the run (184.1 ypg, 73rd) as they are against the pass (248.3 ypg, 89th).

I’m aware that Central Michigan’s offense has struggled of late. The Chippewas didn’t score more than 28-points in a single conference game. I’m not concerned. This Tulsa defense has made bad offenses look great all season long. Just look at their regular season finale against Cincinnati.

Tulsa allowed the Bearcats to score 37 points and rack up 534 yards of total offense. Note that Cincinnati scored 20 or fewer points in 7 of their 12 games. They had scored a mere 26 in their previous 4 games combined before exploding against Tulsa.

It’s also worth pointing out the Chippewas have a legit QB in senior Cooper Rush. He’s a potential late round NFL draft pick, who can sling it. He completed 61.1% of his attempts for 3,299 yards and 23 touchdowns. He averaged 338.0 passing yards/game in Central Michigan’s 4 non-conference games. In those contests, the Chippewas averaged 39.5 ppg.

OVER is 26-6 (81%) over the last 10 seasons in games with a total between 63.5 and 70 in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games, in non-conference games.Take the OVER!

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider TOP PLAY (LV Bowl) on Houston -

I believe the fact that Houston lost head coach Tom Herman to Texas after the season concluded, has actually created some value here on the Cougars. Once it was official that the Big 12 wasn't going to be expanding (Houston was a prime candidate), just about everyone knew that Herman was going to be leaving the program for a Power 5 conference. The Houston players certainly didn't love seeing him go, but they knew it was coming. I just don't see it having a negative impact on them in this game.

The decision to hire within and promote Major Applewhite is also something I like. It keeps the continuity in the lockerrom. There's those that will argue the Cougars will lack motivation after a season that didn't go as planned. The thing is, this team has been out of the playoff talk for months. I actually see this as a statement game for Houston, who will want to put a positive ending to this season.

That's really all that we are looking for, as the Cougars are without question the more talented team. They also have some big time seniors, like quarterback Greg Ward, who they are going to want to send out in style. As for San Diego State, they won their 2nd straight MWC title, but didn't exactly play well down the stretch. They lost their final two regular season games and then barely squeaked out a win against Wyoming in the title game 27-24. Keep in mind this is an Aztecs team that was not tested in non-conference play and I'm one that wasn't all that impressed with the overall play of the MWC. Note that San Diego State's division in the MWC was a joke. The next best team in the division was Hawaii, who finished 6-7 and are simply not a good football team.

On top of all that, this is a good matchup for Houston. The Cougars have the talent offensively to score on any team in the country. So while the Aztecs defense has great number, I don't see them keeping Houston from moving the ball. On the flip side of this, San Diego State features a very limited offense, that depends greatly on their ability to run the ball. That's a problem. The Cougars finished 3rd in the country against the run, giving up just 97.9 ypg and a mere 2.9 yards/carry against teams who averaged 4.3. Take Houston!

4* New Mexico Bowl ATS No Brainer on UTSA +

I know this is a home game for the Lobos, but I believe it’s already been factored into the line and if anything has New Mexico overvalued on the number. Just looking at the records, the public will be all over the Lobos. However, I think these are two very evenly matched teams and wouldn't be shocked if the Roadrunners won this game outright.

The Lobos come into this game with the nations top ranked rushing attack, averaging 360.9 ypg. I’m not as big on teams like New Mexico who are one dimensional in these bowl games. Especially when facing a team that has the ability to counter that strength. I believe UTSA is capable of at least slowing down that Lobos rushing attack.

The Roadrunners finished a respectable 58th in the country in total defense (401.1 ypg). Most importantly they were at their best against the run, allowing just 157.8 ypg. That’s pretty impressive given the explosive offenses in C-USA. UTSA also played two capable Power 5 offenses in Texas A&M and Arizona State. It’s also worth pointing out that UTSA hasn’t allowed more than 185 rushing yards in any of their last 8 games.

On the flip side of this, I think the UTSA offense can have success here against the Lobos defense. New Mexico ranked 95th in the country, giving up 32.4 ppg. That’s critical here, as the Roadrunners are a bit limited offensively.

These two did play one common opponent in Colorado State. While both lost to the Rams, UTSA only lost by 9 on the road, where New Mexico lost by 19. It’s also worth noting while the Roadrunners played ASU (28-32) and Texas A&M (10-23) tough, the Lobos lost to an awful Rutgers team 28-37.

We also have a solid trend in play favoring a fade of the Lobos. In their finale, New Mexico beat Wyoming 56-35, leading by as much as 35-points. The Lobos are a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after leading by 24 or more at any points in their previous game. Take UTSA!

4* NCAAF Army/Navy ATS No Brainer on Army +

Not only do I think Army can keep it close enough to cover, but I like their chances of snapping the losing streak. This is one of the more talented teams that Army has had in recent memory.

Getting to a bowl game is special, but it doesn’t compare to this game and beating Navy. The Black Knights are going to lay everything they have into this game.

While Navy isn’t going to throw in the towel here, this is a really tough spot for them. Playing in last week’s ACC Championship Game was a big accomplishment. However, I think it’s going to be a tough for them to bounce back emotionally from that loss.

Adding even more insult to injury, Navy lost starting quarterback Will Worth. He’s out for this game and the bowl matchup. Keep in mind Worth was filling in for injured starter Tago Smith. That will force the Midshipmen to turn to sophomore Zach Abey. He’s got some big shoes to fill, as Worth leads Navy with 1,198 rushing yards and 25 TD’s. No one else on the team has more than 500 yards.

Not getting the typical week to prepare for this game will make it difficult to get Abey ready. He’s not the only player on offense that Navy will be without. Running back Toneo Gulley is out of the season. On top of that, running backs Darryl Bonner and Dishan Romine are both questionable.

Simply put this is a banged up Midshipmen team in a really tough spot. Who is going up against an Army team that has had two full weeks to rest and prepare for this game.

The great thing is that because Navy has dominated this series and are ranked in the Top 25, they are laying more than they should be. It’s also worth pointing out Navy has struggled of late against great running teams. The Midshipmen are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs teams averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game. The Black Knights comes in 2nd in the country at rushing, averaging 328.7 ypg. Take Army!

5* NCAAF Conference Championship Game of the Year on Virginia Tech +

This is too many points for Clemson to be laying on a neutral field against a very talented Virginia Tech team that just laid it on in-state rival Virginia 52-10 in their regular season finale. While the Tigers are one of the more talented teams in the country, they are not as good as a year ago, when they ran the table before losing to Alabama in the Championship Game.

Clemson has also been far from dominant when facing a top level team. It started right out of the gate when they only won 19-13 at Auburn and then barely squeaked by Troy 30-24 at home. It continued with a 6-point win at home over Louisville, which was later followed by a 24-17 overtime win at home against NC State and 37-34 win at FSU. Keep in mind they should have lost that game to the Wolfpack, as NC State missed a 33-yard chip shot field goal as time expired in regulation. The close calls finally caught up to them in a 42-43 loss at home to Pittsburgh.

This Virginia Tech is certainly on the same level as a lot of those teams the Tigers struggled against. The fact that the Hokies are playing in the ACC Championship Game might surprise some, but not me. I thought Va Tech had one of the best hires in the offseason when they landed Justin Fuente away from Memphis. The best thing Fuente did was keep Bud Foster on as the defensive coordinator, allowing him to focus on getting the offense where it needed to be. He did just that. as Virginia Tech finished 38th in both scoring (34.3 ppg) and total offense (452.9 ypg).

Defensively they ranked 20th in scoring (21.1 ppg) and 19th in yards allowed (332.2 ypg). The strength of the defense being their secondary, as they ranked 17th against the pass, allowing just 186.4 ypg. That's key here against the Tigers, who have the 4th ranked passing offense, compared to the 71st ranked rushing attack.

Not only are the Hokies capable of keeping this game close enough to cover, but I give them a realistic shot at pulling off the upset. Keep in mind the Hokies have a great track record against the spread when facing a dominant defense like Clemson. They are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 against teams who are allowing 17 or fewer points/game. Take Virginia Tech!

4* NCAAF Afternoon ATS Shocker on Baylor +

I'm will aware of the Bears struggles coming into this game. Baylor closed out the season losing each of their final 5 games both SU and ATS. Not to mention the last 4 all came by at least 19 points. The key here is I don't think the Bears are as bad as they are playing and we are getting some great value on them in this spot. Keep in mind they were only a 19.5-point dog at Oklahoma a few weeks ago. They only lost that game by 21 and the Sooners rolled West Virginia at home 56-28.

Baylor has really been beating themselves more than anything of late, as they have 11 turnovers in their last 3 games (-8 turnover margin). Without the turnovers the offense has produced at a high-level. They had 504 total yards on 91 plays against Oklahoma, 368 on 79 plays against K-State and 634 on 100 plays against Texas Tech. This is still a dynamic offense that can move the ball against any team they go up against.

West Virginia comes into this one off a 49-19 win at Iowa State, which was a very misleading final. The Mountaineers defense was no where close to as good as it looks with them only giving up 19 points. ISU had 561 total yards of offense, but did themselves in by committing 4 turnovers. Keep in mind West Virginia only led 21-16 at the half in that game.

The records and rankings say the Mountaineers are the overwhelming better team in this one, but the numbers suggest they are a lot more even than you would think. West Virginia ranks 10th in total offense and 78th in total defense, while Baylor is 4th in total offense and just slight worse defensively at 85th.

I'm not expecting an outright win for the Bears, but it's not out of the question. West Virginia could very easily see how Baylor has been playing and overlook this game, as there's nothing really to gain for the Mountaineers, as they are going to finish 3rd in the standings regardless if they win or lose. Take Baylor!

4* NCAAF Early Bird Total Annihilator on Temple/Navy UNDER

I think we are getting some big time value on the UNDER in Saturday's total between Temple and Navy in the AAC Championship Game. I believe a lot of that has to do with the recent results for Navy, who has put up 66 and 75 points in their last two games. While you don't really expect the Midshipmen to put up those kind of points, it wasn't all that surprising given it came against East Carolina and SMU. The Pirates have the 110th ranked rushing defense and the Mustangs are far behind with the 96th ranked rushing defense.

It's about to get a whole lot harder to run the ball for Navy, as they are facing a stingy Temple defense that finished the regular season ranked 3rd in the country in total defense, allowing just 273.5 ypg. They were sensational against the run, giving up just 128 ypg and a mere 3.6 yards/carry. I know it's a lot different stopping a normal rushing attack compared to Navy's triple-option attack, but the Owls have already faced two triple-option teams in Army and Tulane, so the principles of how to attack this offense are fresh with these players.

Now I know Navy's defense hasn't been great, but this is a good matchup for the Midshipmen. Their biggest weakness on defense is stopping the pass, as they were a mere 107th in the country, giving up 264.9 ypg. Temple's not a great passing team and more than anything they want to run the football, as they averaged 42 rushing attempts a game, compared to just 27 pass attempts (averaging 50+ rush attempts in their last 6 games).

Both teams here are going to pound the rock when they have it, which is going to eat up the clock and limit the possessions for both sides. On top of that, neither of these teams like to push the tempo, so we can expect to see a lot of long drives. Exactly what we are looking for when taking an UNDER with a total north of 60. Take the UNDER!

4* Colorado/Washington Pac-12 Champ No Brainer on UNDER

The value in this matchup is on the total. When you think of the Pac-12, you think of high-scoring offenses and lackluster defense (with the exception of Stanford). While both of these teams can light up a scoreboard, it’s their defenses that got them here. I look for this to resemble more of a Big Ten defensive battle than a Pac-12 shootout. I actually think the total should be closer to 50 than 60.

These are the two best defenses in the Pac-12 statistically. Washington ranks 17th in total defense (328.9 ypg) and are allowing just 17.8 ppg. Colorado is even better. The Buffaloes are 13th in total defense (323.7 ypg) and allowing only 18.7 ppg. That a lone really tells you all you need to know for why there’s value on the UNDER with a total at 58.

The only Pac-12 team that is on par with these two in defensive talent is USC. It just so happens that both teams plays the Trojans this year and both were defensive battles. Colorado lost 17-21 at USC and Washington lost 13-26 at home to the Trojans. Keep in mind that USC is every bit as potent offensively as these two teams.

When you factor in the magnitude of this game and where it's being played, I think it only favors a low-scoring game that much more. It’s anyone’s guess how much the playoff committee is going to value conference championships. Regardless, both of these teams have to feel like they have a shot at getting in with a win. This is a lot of pressure for two programs who aren’t use to being in this spot.

I have a feeling that this total will likely only get lower as we get closer to kickoff. If you like what you see with the UNDER, I recommend getting in on the action now. With that said, I still think there’s great value here at anything over 53 points. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Blowout on Western Kentucky -

This might look like a big number for Western Kentucky to be laying on the road against Marshall, but I actually think the books have set the mark too low. This is not the same caliber of a Thundering Herd team as years past. Marshall is just 3-8 and one of those wins was against FCS foe Morgan State.

Marshall is only scoring 28.3 ppg, which is nowhere close to what you would expect from a Doc Holliday coached team. Keep in mind this is a team that averaged 40+ in 3 straight years from 2012-14. They have scored exactly 14 points in 3 of their last 4 games and that simply isn't going to cut against the Hilltoppers. WKU comes in averaging 42.5 ppg and have scored 44 or more points in 7 straight games, 4 times topping 50 points.

What really tells the story here is how these two teams have done against common opponents. They have played the same 5 teams this season. WKU is 5-0 in these games, winning by an average score of 49.8 to 19.6. Marshall is 2-3 and are losing on average by a score of 23.6 to 29.0. The Hilltoppers have the edge on both sides of the ball and are going to come out motivated here, as they have to win here to lock up 1st place in the C-USA East and secure a spot in the C-USA Championship Game. Take Western Kentucky!

4* NCAAF Situational ATS Annihilator on Navy -

The Midshipmen should have no problem winning on the road over SMU by more than a touchdown. Navy has been better than anyone anticipated this season, as most expected a setback after losing Keenan Reynolds and returning just 1 starter on offense. The Midshipmen haven't missed a beat, as they are 8-2 with wins over the likes of Houston, Memphis, Notre Dame and Tulsa. Last time out they absolutely crushed East Carolina 66-31.

Offensively this team is doing what they do best, run the football with success. Navy comes in 3rd in the nation with an average of 326.6 ypg on the ground. Keep in mind that's with totaling just 57 yards in a loss at Air Force. SMU has no shot at keeping this Midshipmen run game in check, as the Mustangs simply aren't built or had enough practice to defend the triple-option offense that Navy brings to the table. SMU ranks 78th against the run, giving up 184.5 ypg and have allowed 225+ rushing yards on 4 different occasions.

Navy's defense isn't anything special, but can get some stops and should win the turnover battle against a Mustangs offense that has 2 or more turnovers in 7 games (Navy has 2 turnovers in their last 6 games combined). The Midshipmen won 55-14 at home last year over SMU with a 403-144 edge on the ground. While I don't expect that big of a blowout with this game being played at SMU, I could easily see them winning here by 20+ points.

Midshipmen are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 against a team with a losing record, 25-10 ATS in their last 35 road games in weeks 10-13 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Navy!

5* NCAAF SEC West Total of the Month on Auburn/Alabama UNDER

Last year's Iron Bowl saw just 44 combined points and I think we could see an even bigger offensive struggle this time around. These are two of the best defenses in the country, who are going to lay everything they have on the line in this massive rivalry game.

Alabama comes in 2nd in the country in total defense, giving up just 252.6 ypg and are outstanding against the run, allowing just 68.9 ypg (1st). Auburn is extremely dependent on their running game, as they come in 5th in rushing (297.8 ypg) compared to 109th in passing (175.7 ypg). As good as the Tigers are running the ball, the Crimson Tide have proven they are up to the challenge, completely shutting down some really great running teams this season.

Auburn is no slouch on the defensive side of the ball. The Tigers are 18th in the country in total defense, giving up just 334.5 ypg and are at their best against the run (117.7 ypg). Alabama's offense isn't as explosive in years past and are very dependent on their ability to run the ball with success to put up a lot of points.

UNDER is 6-0 in Alabama's last 6 against strong rushing teams, who average 4.75 or more yards/carry and 10-2 in their last 12 home games against teams who average 230 or more rushing yards/game. UNDER is also 10-2 in the Tide's last 12 home games after 8 or more SU wins and 11-2 in their last 13 after covering the spread in 4 of their last 5. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAAF American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulsa -

I have no problem laying this big number on the Golden Hurricane at home against a Cincinnati team that has emotionally checked out on this season. Last week the Bearcats hosted Memphis in their home finale and still had a chance to win out and get to a bowl game. Cincinnati didn't show up, losing by 27 to Memphis as a mere 7-point dog. If they aren't going to come to play in that spot, there's little chance they show up on the road against Tulsa. 

The Golden Hurricane aren't going to take this one lightly, as they will be playing with revenge from a 38-49 loss at Cincinnati last year, a game they led in the 2nd half. Tulsa should have no problem here putting up a big number offensively. They come in 9th in the country in total offense, averaging 514.4 ypg with over 250+ yards/game both on the ground and thru the air. They face a Cincinnati defense that is 74th against the run and 63rd against the pass.

Cincinnati is also a complete mess offensively right now. The Bearcats have scored a combined 13 points in their last 3 games and two of those were at home. Not to mention they are being careless with the football, as they have 9 turnovers in their last 4 games. Even if Cincinnati's offense comes to life, I still think Tulsa scores 40+ points to easily cover this 3+ touchdown spread. Keep in mind that the Golden Hurricane are averaging 48.2 ppg at home, while the Bearcats have scored just 15.7 ppg on the road.

Adding to all of this is a great system backing us laying the big number here with the Hurricane. Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points who are off 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 47-15 (76%) against the spread in Weeks 10 through 13. Take Tulsa!

4* Black Friday NCAAF Underdog No Brainer on Toledo +

Western Michigan comes into this game 11-0 and ranked No. 21 in the country and are getting all kinds of hype from the media right now. That has forced oddsmakers to inflate this line and I love the value here with Toledo catching over a touchdown. The Rockets are without a doubt the closest team in terms of talent in MAC. In fact, a win here and Toledo would overtake Western Michigan for the top spot in the MAC West and would be headed to the MAC Championship Game next week.

Toledo certainly has the offensive fire-power to not only keep this game within single-digits, but to win outright. The Rockets come in 5th in the country in total offense, averaging 536.5 ypg. A big part of that is their passing attack, which is 7th in the nation at 338.2 ypg. It's without question the best offense the Broncos have seen this year.

Toledo can also make some plays on defense. The Rockets are a respectable 55th in the country in total defense. On top of that, Toledo has owned this series, winning 5 of the last 6. They did lose last year at home, but just by 5-points and that only adds more incentive here for the Rockets to pull off the upset. 

Rockets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games when they come in having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a win by 17 or more points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. Take Toledo!

4* Apple Cup (Wash St/Wash) NCAAF ATS Annihilator on Washington -

I have no problem laying less than a touchdown with the Huskies on the road against their rivals from Washington State. Playing at home is the only thing that gives the Cougars a chance to be competitive in this one, but even that is going to be too much to overcome.

I was really impressed with the way Washington responded from that heartbreaking loss at home to USC, by taking care of Arizona State in blowout fashion 44-18. The thing you have to keep in mind is the Trojans are arguably the best team in the Pac-12 right now. Washington State is simply not on the same level. The biggest difference being their defense. The Cougars simply aren't going to be able to contain this high-powered balanced offensive attack of Washington. The Huskies come in 38th in rushing (208.8 ypg) and 30th in passing (273.9 ypg). Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning should have a field day here against Washington State's 116th ranked pass defense (278.3 ypg).

While Washington State's offense also figures to have some success, the Huskies at least have a defense that can get off the field and keep the opposing team out of the endzone. Washington hasn't allowed more than 28 points in a game this season, which is saying something given all the strong offenses in the Pac-12. Colorado just held the Cougars to 24 points last week and the Huskies are every bit as good as the Buffaloes on the defensive side of the ball.

It's also worth pointing out that Washington has dominated this series of late. The Huskies have won 3 straight with the last two coming by 18+ points. It's also worth pointing out Washington has failed to cover the spread in their last two games, as they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after failing to cover in 2 straight. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games against bad defensive teams who are allowing 5.9 or more yards/play. Take Washington!

4* LSU/Texas A&M Thanksgiving ATS Slaughter on LSU - 

The perception here will be that LSU has nothing to play for. I’m not buying that. If the Tigers were going to quit on their season, they would have done so after the loss to rival Alabama. There’s no question they outplayed Florida last week in defeat and I expect them to come out looking to close out their season with a statement against the Aggies. 

As for Texas A&M, this a team that is once again trending in the wrong direction to close out the season. The Aggies have lost 3 straight inside conference play. The only 2 wins in their last 5 games are against New Mexico State and UTSA.

Texas A&M’s offense has not been as effective since losing starting quarterback Trevor Knight. While backup Jake Hubenak has completed 60% of his passes with 6 TD’s to just 2 INT’s, he doesn’t provide near the treat in the running game. He’s carried it 31 times this season for 44 yards, which is 1.4 yards/carry. Knight had rushed for 583 yards and 10 touchdowns on 88 attempts (6.6 ypc). Only rushing for 183 yards against UTSA, really tells the story of how much they miss Knight. 

Even with Knight it would have been a challenge for the Aggies offense against LSU. The Tigers come into this game ranked 11th in the country in total defense, giving up just 308.1 ypg. They haven’t allowed more than 21 points in a game all season and only twice allowed more than 18 points.

LSU will likely be without star running back Leonard Fournette, but should have plenty of success running the ball. Backup running back Derrius Guice has rushed for 964 yards and 10 scores on the season. What really stands out is his 8.0 yards/carry. He had 83 yards on 19 attempts last week against an elite Florida defense. Texas A&M’s defense is better than years past, but not on the same level as the Gators. The Aggies are 75th in the country against the run (179.7 ypg) and giving up 495.3 ypg overall in SEC play.

Texas A&M has not been a good team to back at home. The Aggies are just 5-14 ATS over the last 3 seasons overall with a 1-8 ATS mark against SEC opponents. As for LSU, the Tigers have responded well off a low-scoring game. They are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 after a game where 29 or fewer combined points were scored. Take LSU! 

4* Tuesday Night NCAAF ATS No Brainer on Miami -

I like the value here with the RedHawks at home against the Cardinals. Miami (OH) has been a team on a mission, as they come in having won 5 straight after starting out the season 0-6. Playing in their home finale and needing to win to become bowl eligible, I expect an all out effort here from the RedHawks.

While this is a rivalry game, it's going to be tough for Ball State to get up for this contest. The Cardinals were in prime position to make a bowl game, as they were 4-3 with 5 games left to play, but have dropped their last 4 and now have nothing to play for in their finale.

Not only are the RedHawks going to be motivated to get that 6th win, but they will also be playing with some serious revenge, as last time they faced their rivals they got embarrassed 55-14 at Ball State.

One of the keys to Miami's surge in the 2nd half of the season, is the play of sophomore quarterback Gus Ragland. All 5 wins have come since he took over as the starter. Ragland has thrown for 894 yards with an impressive 12 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. He should be in store for a big day here, as Ball State's defense ranks 126th out of 128 teams against the pass, giving up an average of 314.2 ypg. The RedHawks also own of the better defenses you haven't heard about, as they come in 23rd in the country in total defense, allowing just 347.5 ypg. Take Miami (OH)!

5* Vegas Insider Game of the Month on UCF +

I was shocked to see UCF as a home dog in this one, but I'll gladly take advantage of the opportunity to back the Knights in this spot. UCF has been one of the most improved teams in the country this year. They finished last season winless at 0-12 and are sitting at 6-4 with two games left to play. Their only two losses inside AAC play are a 25-26 defeat at home against Temple and 24-31 loss at Houston. They had a 25-7 lead against the Owls and lost the game on a last second touchdown. Similar story against the Cougars, where they jumped out to a 24-3 lead before giving it up late. Clearly this team can play with anyone in this conference.

I don't feel the same way about Tulsa, whose only legit win on the season was at Memphis. Their other 6 wins are against San Jose State, North Carolina A&T, Fresno State, SMU, Tulane and East Carolina. This is also a very tough spot for the Golden Hurricane. Last week's heartbreaking 40-42 loss at Navy all but ended their hopes of winning the West division. Not only do they have to win out, but they need Navy to lose their final two against SMU and ECU, who are a combined 4-8 in league play. Even if Navy were to lose both of those games, they would still need Houston to lose at Memphis. Regardless if they still are holding on hope or not, I don't like their chances of winning this game.

While Tulsa has a great offense, they are awful defensively. The Knights offense isn't great by any means, but they are extremely talented defensively. I'll take great defense over great offense, especially with the game being played at home in a prime time night game on ESPNN. Don't get me wrong, I fully expect the Knights offense to have their way with Tulsa's defense. If the Hurricane don't show up for this one, it's going to get ugly in a hurry. Take UCF!

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on Temple/Tulane UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive showdown in Tulane on Saturday. Temple comes into this game off a 21-0 win at Connecticut. A game in which they failed to score a single point in the final 3 quarters of regulation. Not a surprising outcome given that the Huskies are a strong defensive team and very limited offensively.

Tulane is just as bad as UConn offensively, but are much better defensively. The Green Wave come in ranked 112th in the country in total offense, averaging just 353.4 ypg. Almost all of that comes on the ground, as they average 236.4 ypg rushing, compared to 117.0 ypg passing. Hard to imagine them doing much of anything here, as Temple is 7th in the country in total defense, allowing just 291.4 ypg. On top of that, the Owls have had a full two weeks to prepare for this game.

As for the Green Wave defense, you might be surprised to see that they are 23rd in the country in total defense, given they are just 3-7 overall and 0-6 in conference play. They are a balanced defensive attack, ranking 49th against the run and 30th against the pass. Last time out against a dynamic Houston offense, they limited the Cougars to just 30 points and only 287 yards of total offense.

The big key here is that this not a game that Temple can overlook, as they are tied with USF on top the East standings in the AAC at 5-1. Due to beating USF at home, they hold the tiebreaker and if they win out, they are headed to the ACC Championship Game. I also expect a big effort from Tulane, as they desperately want to avoid going winless in conference play, plus there's a little extra motivation here with this being their home finale. Note they have played very well at home against the better teams in the ACC, losing 14-21 to Navy and 14-24 to Memphis. I think we see a very similar type of score here, which has well below the mark in this one. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Underdog of the Week on Duke +

Both of these teams are coming off big wins last week. Pittsburgh stunned everyone by going on the road and knocking off then No.2 Clemson 43-42 as a 21-point underdog. Duke on the other hand defeated No. 17 UNC at home 28-27 as a 10.5-point dog. I think it will be much easier for the Blue Devils to bounce back. Not only do I think they can keep this within a touchdown, but I give them a great shot to win outright.

While the win over the Tar Heels was Duke's first conference win of the season, they have been playing really well of late. It started with that 14-24 loss at Louisville, where everyone wants to talk about how the Cardinals laid an egg. A lot of that had to do with how well the Blue Devils played. They carried it over with a near upset of Georgia Tech on the road, losing 35-38 and another close defeat at home to Virginia Tech 21-24. Win or lose, Duke seems to find away to hand around.

Duke's defense has played a big part in their strong play over their last 4 games and I think they can certainly slow down this Pittsburgh offensive attack. However, the real key here is the Panthers defense and it's inability to stop the opposition. Pittsburgh gave up 630 yards last week to the Tigers and have now allowed at least 31 points in 5 straight games and 8 of their last 9 overall.

I think there's also a hidden edge here with Duke, as they have had a couple extra days to prepare and refocus after their big win, as their game against the Tar Heels was on Thursday, while Pitt played Clemson on Saturday.

I also think it's important to note that this game means a lot more to the Blue Devils, who need to win out to become bowl eligible. Pittsburgh on the other hand has already reached the 6-win mark and are all but out of the Coastal race. They are tied with Miami with a 3-3 record in conference play, both of which are 1-game back of Virginia Tech and UNC at 5-2. The key here is that Pitt has already lost to all 3 of those teams. With the home finale (senior day) on deck next week against Syracuse, this is the ideal spot for the Panthers to come out flat. Take Duke!

4* NCAAF Friday Night ATS Annihilator on Cincinnati +

I think the value here is with Cincinnati. I believe we are going to see a desperate Bearcats team take the field in this one. Cincinnati needs to win out to become bowl eligible. On top of that, this is senior night, which typically brings out the best in bad teams.

It’s also worth pointing out that the Bearcats weren't as bad as the 3-24 final score would suggest against UCF last week. Cincinnati actually outgained the Knights 327-305 on the game. They were done in by 3 turnovers and a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown.

More than anything, I don’t think Memphis should be laying over a touchdown on the road in this spot. The Tigers have been outgained in 5 of their last 7 games. The only exceptions coming against SMU and Tulane, who are two of the bottom feeders in the AAC. 

I know the Cincinnati offense hasn’t looked good at all of late. They have scored just 19 points in their last 3 games combined. However, I think this is a matchup where they can get something going. Memphis comes in ranked 92nd in the country in total defense, allowing 444.4 ypg. They have allowed 527.7 ypg in their last 3 and are giving up 492.3 ypg in conference play.

While the offense has struggled, Cincinnati’s defense has been playing well of late. The Bearcats have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 24 points or less and this Memphis offense isn't anything special. 

With this being a nationally televised night game, I think it only adds more value to Cincinnati. Keep in mind they hosted Houston on a Thursday night earlier this season. While they lost the game 16-40, they led 16-12 in the 4th quarter of that game. Going back to 2006, the Bearcats are 54-15 at home.

I also think it’s worth noting that Memphis has nothing to play for here. The Tigers are out of the ACC West race and have already secured a bowl bid at 6-4. On top of that, they have a huge showdown in their regular season finale on deck against Houston next week.

We also find a strong system in play backing the Bearcats. Home dogs off 2 or more SU losses, who are a marginal losing team (40%-49%) are 29-14 (67%) ATS against a team with a winning record over the last 5 seasons. Take Cincinnati! 

4* Louisville/Houston Thursday Night No Brainer on Houston +

Houston comes into this game having failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games. That includes an ugly 16-38 loss at SMU as a 23-point favorite. It all started with their 40-46 loss at Navy, which all but ended their hope for making the playoffs.

On top of that, they pretty much know their prized head coach is jumping ship after the season. Not an easy thing to play through against some of the below-average teams they face in the AAC. I expect a completely different Houston team to take the field for this game.

Senior wide out Chance Allen came out and said that “This is our Super Bowl.” I believe that’s exactly how the Cougars are going to treat this game. This is there opportunity to prove how talented they are against an elite team. I also think there’s extra motivation knowing they can play spoiler for Louisville.

As good as Louisville is, winning on the road by more than 14-points against a good team is no easy task. Keep in mind all the pressure is on the Cardinals in this one. Not to mention we have seen them slip on the road of late. Their lone loss was on the road at Clemson. They also nearly lost at Virginia not that long ago. They trailed 24-25 before scoring a 29-yard touchdown with 13 seconds left to win 32-25.

It’s also important to note that Houston has played well at home. The Cougars haven’t lost at home since 2014, winning each of their last 14 home games. I believe the key here is the Cougars have the talent on defense to keep Lamar Jackson in check. Houston ranks 3rd in the country against the run. They are giving up just 92.8 yards/game and a mere 2.8 yards/carry.

Don’t forget these two teams played last year in Louisville. Houston won that game 34-31 as a 13-point road dog. While Jackson split reps at quarterback, he was just 17 of 27 for 168 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs. The Cougars also limited him to just 16 yards on 12 rushing attempts. I understand he’s better, but I don’t think it’s so much that they should be favored by more on the road than they were at home last year. Take Houston!

4* Ball St/Toledo NCAAF ATS No Brainer on Toledo -

This might not seem like a great spot for Toledo. They are off the big game against NIU and an even bigger one on deck against Western Michigan. However, that game against the Broncos doesn’t mean anything if they don’t win this one. A win over Ball State and 1st place in the West will be up for grabs next week. A loss and next week’s game won’t mean a thing.

On top of that, this is senior night for the Rockets, as this is their final home game of the season. I also think we could see a more focused Toledo team after last week’s near upset loss to the Huskies. If the Rockets show up to play here, winning by 21+ points shouldn’t be a problem.

I just don’t think Ball State has a lot left in the tank after last week’s crushing loss in their home finale. The Cardinals jumped out to a 21-0 lead in their home finale against Eastern Michigan, only to trail 28-40 early in the 4th. They managed to retake the lead 41-40 with less than 2 minutes to play, before giving it right back and losing 41-48.

On top of that, the Cardinals could be without a key piece to their offense. Starting running back James Gilbert is questionable with a leg injury. He only had 12 carries for 54 yards last week against Eastern Michigan. Snapping a streak of 5 straight games with at least 115 yards. I believe the spread here is telling you he’s not expected to play. Gilbert is one of the best backs the MAC has to offer and a critical piece to Ball State's success in this game.

That puts a lot of pressure on Ball State quarterback Riley Neal and I just don’t think he’s capable of going score for score with the Rockets. So much of what the Cardinals do is built on their running game. While Neal is completing 60% of his attempts, he’s only averaging 6.7 yards/attempt. He’s also got just 10 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.

Toledo is certainly going to get there’s offensively. The Rockets come into this game ranked 5th in the country in total offense at 539.7 ypg. They are 39th in rushing (200.2 ypg) and 8th in passing (339.5 ypg). They’ll be going up against a Ball State defense that ranks 126th in the country against the pass (313.1 ypg).

It’s also worth noting this is a not a spot where the Cardinals have done well in recent years. Ball State is 0-8 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons. They are also just 1-8 ATS during this same stretch after allowing 525 or more total yards. Toledo on the other hand is 15-5 ATS in their last 20. The Rockets are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a losing record. Take Toledo!

4* NCAAF Tuesday Night MAC No Brainer on Kent State -

Kent State really showed me a lot in their near upset of Western Michigan last week. Keep in mind that’s a Broncos team that is undefeated and ranked No. 14 in the AP Poll.

The Flashes other 3 conference losses are all games they could have won. They lost 27-31 at home to Akron, 14-18 at Miami (OH) and 10-14 at home to Ohio. This team is a couple breaks their way from being 4-2 instead of 2-4 in the MAC.

Not to take anything away from Bowling Green’s win at Akron, but the Zips gift wrapped that game to them. Akron turned the ball over 6 times. It was a rare win in the turnover department for the Falcons. They had only forced 6 turnovers in their previous 5 games. A stretch where they had a -6 turnover margin.

I don’t think Bowling Green is going to be so lucky against Kent State. The Flashes have just 7 turnovers in their last 9 games. Let’s also not overlook the fact that the Falcons only other win on the season was against FCS foe North Dakota. A game they were fortunate to win 27-26.

While both of these offenses aren’t very good, Kent State has a big edge on defense. The Golden Flashes rank 27th in the country in total defense, allowing just 356.8 ypg. An impressive mark given they played both Alabama and Penn State in non-conference play. Not to mention their last game against an explosive Western Michigan offense.

Bowling Green on the other hand is 122nd out of 128 FBS teams, allowing 491.6 ypg. They are equally as bad against the run (221.5 ypg) as they are the pass (270.1 ypg). So while Kent State is 126th in total offense, this is a matchup where their offense can do some damage.

Another key factor here is motivation, which I think has to go to Kent State. There’s nothing but pride left to play for at this point of the season for these two teams. I think it’s going to mean a lot more to the Flashes. They are sick and tired of losing to Bowling Green and have not forgot about last year’s embarrassing 48-point loss on their home field. Keep in mind that Kent State had 18 returning starters and 51 lettermen back from last season.

Bowling Green is also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing record. The Golden Flashes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 7-0 ATS in last 7 off a home cover, where they lost as an underdog. Take Kent State!

5* NCAAF Pac-12 Total of the Month on USC/Washington UNDER

I love the value we are getting with the total in Saturday's highly anticipated Pac-12 showdown between Washington and USC. I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated total here due to how well these two offenses have looked of late. Both have scored 40+ in 4 of their last 5 games. However, that's not all that surprising given how few teams in the Pac-12 play defense. I'm not saying these two offenses aren't legit, I just don't think their defenses are getting near the respect they deserve in this one.

Washington comes into this game ranked 18th in the country in total defense and the strength of their stop unit is their secondary, which ranks 13th against the pass, allowing just 181.9 ypg. USC is a respectable 38th in total defense and have allowed more than 27 points just once in their last 8 games. The Huskies haven't allowed more than 28 points all season.

While both offenses are much improved over last year, you can't ignore the fact that these two teams combined for just 29 points in Washington's 17-12 win at USC a year ago. With everything that both of these teams have riding on this game, I expect another hard fought defensive battle.

The UNDER is 10-2 in USC's last 12 road games after scoring 42 or more points in 2 straight games and 20-8 in their last 28 against a team with a winning record. Under is also 11-2 in the Huskies last 13 with a total set at 56.5 to 63 points and 11-4 in their last 15 home games against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Situational Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas +

I really like the value here with the Razorbacks catching a touchdown at home. It’s not so much that I think Arkansas is the better team but the situation calls for a fade of the Tigers. LSU is coming off the biggest game of their season last week against Alabama. A game if they won, would have given them a shot at winning the SEC West title.

Regardless of the outcome the Tigers were going to be in line for a letdown this week. It’s even more the case given how they lost that game, as it was a 0-0 tie going into the 4th quarter.

As good as LSU’s defense looked last week, chances are we won’t see that same effort here. I don’t think losing the last two in the series, is enough to get them up for this game. Keep in mind that both of the Razorbacks’ last two wins over LSU have come after the Tigers lost to Alabama, so this is a clear spot they have struggled with in the past.

I could see some arguing that this is a great matchup for LSU. The Tigers offense depends on their ability to run the ball. Arkansas ranks 91st in the country against the run, allowing 198.4 ypg. However, I just think the situation here overrides the matchup.

I’m not saying LSU can’t win this game, I just think asking them to do so by more than a touchdown is a lot. At the same time, I think there’s a decent chance they lose the game outright. Simply too much value here on the Razorbacks at home, as they aren’t going to overlook this one.

Adding to this, is that LSU is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after gaining 275 or less total yards in their last game. On top of that, they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games when playing on a Saturday. Arkansas is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games against a team with a winning road record. They are also 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games in the month of November. Take Arkansas!

5* NCAAF American Athletic Game of the Month on USF -

I was hoping the books would slip up and have this closer to a pick'em or even have Memphis favored, but I still see a ton of value here with USF laying just a field goal. I think the Tigers are one of the most overrated teams in the AAC, while the Bulls don't get the respect they deserve. Memphis has been outgained by 100 or more yards in 4 of their last 6 games, the only two exceptions coming against bad teams in SMU and Tulane.

One of the most misleading stats you will find is Memphis coming in only allowed 24.9 ppg. They have simply benefited from playing a lot of bad teams. All you have to do is look at how bad they have been when up against a legit offense. They allowed 48 points to Ole Miss, 42 to Navy and 59 to Tulsa, giving up over 500 yards of total offense in all 3 games. South Florida is certainly legit on the offensive side of the ball, as they come in averaging 43.4 ppg and 503 ypg. Keep in mind their opponents on average are only giving up 31.4 ppg and 419 ypg.

I think the Bulls are a better version of the Tulsa team that just recently went into Memphis and beat the Tigers 59-30. On top of that, we are getting USF in a big revenge spot from last year's heartbreaking 17-24 home loss to the Tigers. A game they had to feel like they should have won after leading 10-0 early. Another huge key here is that the Bulls were off last week, giving them two full weeks to prepare for this game. Memphis on the other hand has to be running on fumes, as they haven't had a bye since Week 2 of the season.

The fact that the Tigers come in off a 51-7 blowout win at SMU only adds more value here, as Memphis is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a road win by 10 or more points. The Tigers are also just 6-22 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 42 or more points in their previous game. The Bulls are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games on Saturday and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite. Take South Florida!

4* NCAAF Early Bird ATS Annihilator on Northwestern -

I'll gladly back Northwestern here laying less than two touchdowns against the Boilermakers. I look for the Wildcats to come out with a chip on their shoulder after back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Ohio State (20-24) and Wisconsin (7-21). Especially on the offensive side of things, as they have really been bottled up the last two weeks. Purdue is the perfect opponent for them to get back on track, as they come in allowing 43.8 ppg and 483.5 ypg in Big Ten play.

The last time the Wildcats played a defense anywhere close to as bad as Purdue, was Michigan State and they put up 54 points with over 200 yards rushing and 280 yards passing. The ability to get the running game going is going to be huge for Northwestern, as it's going to up things even more in the passing game.

Even with this being played at home, I don't think the Boilermakers are going to be able to keep pace offensively with the Wildcats. Purdue has a strong passing attack, but they are also prone to turnovers, as they have 9 in their last 3 games. It's also worth pointing out that their defense doesn't force many mistakes, as they have just 5 takeaways against FBS teams this season. On top of that, Northwestern doesn't turn the ball over, as they have just 4 in their last 5 games against some pretty good competition.

Fading Purdue at home when they are an underdog has been a very profitable situation, as they are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 as a home dog. The Wildcats on the other hand are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams who average 2.5 or more turnovers/game. Take Northwestern!

4* Friday Night NCAAF Money Maker on Boston College +

The value here is with the Eagles as massive 21-point underdog. I know the Seminoles showed a lot heart last week in their win at NC State. A game they could have easily thrown in the towel on after the heartbreaking loss to Clemson. Still, I don’t believe we can trust this team going forward.

There’s just nothing left to play for the Seminoles. The ACC title is out the window and chances are they won’t be playing in a big bowl game either. That’s a lot to swallow for a team that many predicted to win it all. Getting up for NC State on the road is one thing, it’s a whole different story against a BC team that just lost by 45.

While FSU could struggle to find the motivation for this game, I expect an all out effort here from the Eagles. Boston College is still fighting to become bowl eligible. Needing to win 2 of their final 3 to hit the 6-win mark. A very strong possibility with a home game against UConn and road game at Wake Forest left to play.

We have seen Florida State struggle against similar low-level ACC teams. In fact, just a few weeks ago they only won 17-6 at home against Wake Forest as a 23.5-point favorite.

The big key here is the Eagles have the talent on defense to keep this FSU offense in check. Boston College comes in 15th in the country in total defense, giving up just 322.6 ypg. They are 8th in the country against the run, allowing just 106.6 ypg. If you can take away the ground game, you can definitely slow down the Seminoles attack.

You also have to factor in just how close this series has been of late. Florida State’s largest margin of victory in the last 3 meetings is just 14-points. Last year they only beat BC by a final of 14-0 and that was an Eagles’ team that finished the season 3-9.

It’s also worth pointing out that the Seminoles are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a road win. On the other hand, Boston College is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after failing to cover in their last contest. Take Boston College!

4* NCAAF Thursday Late Night Bailout on Arizona State +

I’m going to side with the Sun Devils at home in this one. The perception of Arizona State at the moment is not good. They come in having lost 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, which followed their 4-0 start to the season.

However, injuries have played a big part of their struggles of late. Getting a bye week after the Oregon game was huge. It allowed some of those guys who were banged up to get back to full strength. They should have a number of guys back for this game.

Even though Utah comes in off a loss, the perception on the Utes is high right now. Only losing by 7-points at home to Washington was considered a success in the eyes of the public. Especially given what the Huskies have been doing to other Pac-12 opponents.

While the Utes played Washington tough, you have to keep in mind that it was at home. Utah has had their struggles on the road, including a 23-28 loss at California. A very similar type of team to that of Arizona State. They also struggled to put away the Beavers in a 19-14 win at Oregon State.

I just don’t think it’s going to be as easy as a lot of people think for them to win in Tempe. Especially with this being a weekday night game. The Sun Devil faithful will be out in full force. I also think Arizona State comes out with a chip on their shoulder in this one, given their 3-game skid. Keep in mind the Sun Devils are 21-10 in their last 31 conference home games. The only loss at home this season by just 5-points to a very good Washington State team.

The other thing, is this Utah offense is really struggling in the passing game right now. The Utes have thrown for a mere 384 yards in their last 3 games combined. While Arizona State’s run defensive isn’t as good as their ranking (16th in the country), it’s clearly the strength of their stop unit. If they can feed off the home crowd, which they should, Utah could have trouble scoring in this one.

The Sun Devils are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 at home after allowing 31+ points in 2 straight games. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their last game. Take Arizona State!

4* Wednesday Night MAC Vegas Insider on Toledo -

I believe the fact that Northern Illinois has covered 4 of their last 5 games and have such a great reputation (had been to 6 straight MAC title games) has kept this line lower than it should be. While the Huskies aren’t as good as expected, it’s not going to change how Toledo views this game. The Rockets have had this one circled on the calendar since the schedule was released.

The inability to beat Northern Illinois has cost Toledo a spot in the MAC title game each of the last two years. They aren’t going to feel the least bit bad about taking it to the Huskies when they are down. They are trying to snap a 6-game losing streak in the series.

Northern Illinois is 3-2 in the MAC, but their 3 wins are against Ball State, Buffalo and Bowling Green. Those are the 3 worst teams in the conference, with a combined record of 2-13 in league play.

The big problem for the Huskies this season has been their defense, which ranks 109th in the country. They are equally bad against the run (95th) as they are the pass (98th).

That’s a major concern here against a dynamic Toledo offense, which ranks 4th in the nation at 553 ypg. Junior quarterback Logan Woodside has already thrown for over 3,000 yards. He’s also got an impressive 34-5 touchdown-interception ratio with a 71% completion rate. The Rockets also have two dynamic backs in Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson. Combined the two have rushed for 1,433 yards and 9 scores.

I believe Toledo’s defense can get enough stops here to win this one by at least 7-points. I also think there’s a good chance this could get ugly. A lot has to go right for the Huskies to keep this one close.

Keep in mind this is not a true home game for Northern Illinois, as it will be played at US Cellular Field. I think that only adds to value with Toledo here, as I think they should be laying double-digits in this spot. Northern Illinois is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 on a neutral field. Toledo has also been a great team to back off a blowout win. The Rockets are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 off a win by 28 or more points. Take Toledo!

4* NCAAF Situational ATS No Brainer on Western Michigan -

Western Michigan is by far the best team in the MAC and the Broncos have a serious advantage here on both sides of the ball. They should have no problem here winning by 24+ points.

The Broncos come into this game on cruise control offensively. Western Michigan has scored at least 41 points in 6 straight games. They are extremely well balanced. They rank 17th in the nation in rushing (245.3 ypg) and 38th in passing (262.4 ypg).

They are also dominant on the defensive side of the ball. They come in 34th in the country, allowing just 369.0 ypg. I believe it’s the defense that gives the Broncos a great shot at covering. Kent State is dead last in the country in total offense at just 308 ypg. They are only averaging 4.7 yards/play. In comparison Western Michigan averages 7.0 yards/play. The key is they have no passing game. They are averaging just 131 ypg through the air and a mere 53% completion rate.

The Golden Flashes do have a solid defense, but with the limitations on offense they can only do so much. They might keep the Broncos in check early, but it’s only a matter a time before they crack. If they struggle at all early on defense, this game could get really ugly, as Kent State can’t play from behind. Keep in mind they will be without All-MAC defender Nate Holley, who has a ridiculous 111 tackles in 9 games. He leads the nation in solo tackles at 8.9/game and is 2nd in total tackles at 12.3/game.

Western Michigan also routinely dominates in the turnover department. The Broncos have a +15 turnover margin, as the offense has committed just 3 turnovers all season. Defensively, they have forced at least 2 turnovers in 7 straight games. Turnovers could definitely play a big role in this game. If Kent State has to throw more than they would like, chances are Broncos will capitalize.

We also find a solid system backing Western Michigan to cover this spread. Road teams who have beaten the spread by 49+ points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 49-17 (74%) ATS over the last 5 years. Take Western Michigan!

5* SEC Game of the Month on LSU +

I know all Alabama has done is cover the spread in big games this year, but I believe their success against the number in this spot will come to an end. Potentially in a big way, as I think there's a decent chance LSU wins this game outright. Since getting rid of Les Miles, this Tigers team has come to life. Since the switch they have beat Missouri 42-7, Southern Miss 45-10 and Ole Miss 38-21. Let's also not forget their only two losses were to Wisconsin and Auburn on the road by a combined 7-points.

The biggest key here with the Miles departure is the offense has opened up a lot more and that's key against Alabama, as you just can't run it right at the Crimson Tide. At the same time, this LSU defense has the speed an athleticism to matchup with Alabama's offense. The Tigers rank 8th in the country against the run, giving up just 104.1 ypg and are only allowing 2.9 yards/carry. I know the Tide can beat you with both the run and the pass, but so much of what they do is centered around their ability to run the ball.

The other thing here is you just can't underestimate how hard it is to go into Death Valley for a night game of this magnitude and win, let alone beat them by 8 points. In fact, the last time Alabama beat LSU on the road by more than a touchdown was 2002. Back when Tebow was still a quarterback at Florida. How many thought Ohio State would lose at Penn State a couple weeks ago? This is a very similar situation and the home field edge is even stronger for LSU than it is the Nittany Lions.

It's also key that LSU's offense is going, as they are almost impossible to beat at home when they got thinks clicking on that side of the ball. The Tigers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after rushing for 275 or more yards in their previous game and a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 3 years in home games after scoring 37 or more points in their previous contest. Take LSU!

4* NCAAF Late Night Dog of the Week on Iowa +

The Hawkeyes are showing some great value here against the Nittany Lions. Penn State is way overvalued right now. They come in having won 4 straight, but it's the last two that have this line much higher than it should be. First they won outright as a 17.5-point dog at home against Ohio State. Most thought they would suffer a letdown off that win last week at Purdue, but instead they won 62-24 as a 15.5-point favorite. That game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate, as they went into half tied 17-17 with the Boilermakers and led by just 10 late in the 3rd quarter. They also benefited from 4 Purdue turnovers, all of which resulted in Penn State touchdowns.

Iowa is a team that came into the season getting a lot of love after going 12-0 last year and probably wasn't deserving of it. They are almost a forgotten team at this point, but this is still a quality team that is capable of going on the road here and beating the Nittany Lions. The biggest key here is the Hawkeyes come into this game off a bye, which they desperately needed after playing each of the first 8 weeks of the season. This is also a big bounce back spot for the Hawkeyes after losing at home to Wisconsin 9-17 in their last game.

I just don't see a huge gap here in talent like this spread is suggesting. I look for Iowa's defense to really make it tough on the Nittany Lions and the Hawkeyes ground game should have a lot of success against a Penn State defense that is giving up 4.5 yards/carry and 183 yards/game against the run.

The Nittany Lions are just 21-41 in their last 62 after a cover as a double-digit favorite and 12-26 ATS in their last 38 after covering 3 of their last 4. Hawkeyes are 39-18 ATS in their last 57 against strong offensive teams that are averaging 5.9 or more yards/play. Take Iowa!

5* Big 12 Game of the Month on Kansas State -

I really like the value we are getting here with the Wildcats as slim 2.5-point favorite (recommend by down to 2.5 if you get 3 for a line). Oklahoma State comes in off a 37-20 win over West Virginia as a 5-point home dog, but I don't think that win is as big as people think. The Mountaineers were undefeated and ranked No. 10, but they had a very favorable schedule up that point with just one true road game in their first 6.

Anytime a team wins at home as an underdog, it puts them in a prime spot for a letdown and I think that's exactly what we are going to see here. At the same time, I really like this Kansas State team, especially at home, where they are a perfect 4-0 this season and 55-18 going back to 2006.

These two teams are opposites in terms of their strengths and weaknesses. Kansas State is 107th in total offense, but are 32nd in total defense. Oklahoma State is 35th in total offense and 101st in total defense. I'd much rather have the better defensive team at home in this scenario. K-State should be able to generate plenty of offense here and their 3 losses this season have all come in games where they failed to score at least 20 points. You also can't look at how good the Wildcats are in special teams and turnovers, which translates to good field position and favorable scoring opportunities.

Keep in mind the home team has won each of the last 5 and 9 of the last 10 in the series. It's also worth pointing out that K-State is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 and 8-2 ATS over the last 10. Lastly, the Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 years. Take Kansas State!

4* NCAAF Early Bird Total Annihilator on Air Force/Army UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's military showdown between Air Force and Army. While it's not quite the same rivalry as Army/Navy, it's pretty close. Anytime you get two armed forces going against each other, it serious business. However, that's not the main reason I like the UNDER in this one.

It's the fact that we have two teams that are going to run it a lot. Air Force averages 63 rushing attempts a game, compared to just 14 pass attempts. Army keeps it on the ground 62 times a game and attempts just 10 passes on average. The clock is going to be running constantly in this one, which is going to keep possessions at a minimum.

The other big key here is that one of the big advantages that these triple option teams like Army and Air Force have over their competition is the option is not easy to prepare for in the typical 6 days teams have between games. That advantage is thrown out the window in these games, as both of these teams are familiar with the schemes and know how to stop it.

Just look at the recent meetings between these two teams. Last year they combined for just 23 points with a total set at 50. The year before they only combined for 29 with a total of 54.

Another factor here is that Air Force could be without starting quarterback Nate Romine, as he's questionable with a ankle injury. The quarterback is arguably the most important piece in the option. Even if he plays, the Falcons option attack won't be as strong with him not at 100%. If he doesn't, it's only going to make Air Force that much more dependent on the run. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Situational Oddsmakers Error on Northwestern +

I really like the value we are getting with the Wildcats at home. Typically we would see a team like the Wildcats be overvalued after how well they played last week at Ohio State. I don’t think that’s the case with the opponent being Wisconsin. The Badgers are getting a ton of love right now and are No. 8 in the first playoff rankings.

This Northwestern team has really come alive over the last month. It started with a 38-31 win at Iowa. They followed it up with a 54-40 win at Michigan State and 24-14 victory over Indiana. I could see some concern with them coming off an emotional loss to the Buckeyes, but playing at home against a Top 10 team should have them ready to go.

Not only do I think the Wildcats can keep this close enough to cover, an outright win is a clear possibility. Northwestern has had the Badgers number of late. They won 13-7 at Wisconsin last year as a 12-point dog. The year before they won 20-14 at home as a 7.5-point dog.

The key thing here is the Wildcats matchup really well with the Badgers. Wisconsin doesn’t have much of a passing game and because of that need to be able to run the ball. That plays right into the strength of the Northwestern defense. The Wildcats are 38th in the country against the run, allowing just 141.5 ypg and just 3.9 ypc.

Another thing to keep in mind is the Badgers could be running out of gas. They blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead at home to Nebraska last week. That was their 4th time in their last 5 games they played a team ranked in the Top 10. The only exception was a road game at Iowa, which is no easy place to win. If they don’t come in 100% locked in on the Wildcats, they could be in for a long day.

It’s also worth pointing out that Northwestern has thrived in the role of a small dog. The Wildcats are 47-29 ATS in their last 76 as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. They are also 6-2 in their last 8 games in November and 5-2 ATS following a SU loss. Take Northwestern!

4* NCAAF Friday Night ATS Smash on Connecticut +

I think we are getting some great value here with the Huskies catching double-digits at home. I believe we are seeing a big overreaction here by the books. Temple is overvalued after covering the spread in 8 straight. At the same time, Connecticut is undervalued due to their 2-6 ATS record. On top of that they just lost by 38-points last week.

Not only are we getting a great number, but this is a good situation to back the Huskies. Sitting at 3-wins with 3 games to play, UConn has to win out to be bowl eligible. It’s certainly not out of the question they can win this game. They have a road game against BC and home game against Tulane to close out the year. Either way, we can count on the Huskies laying everything on the line in this game. Especially with it being a nationally televised home game on ESPN2.

While this game means everything to Connecticut, Temple is primed for a letdown. The Owls just played two of the top teams in the conference at home in USF and Cincinnati. Now they go on the road against a bad Huskies team they crushed last year 27-3 at home. It’s not as easy as people think getting up for these type of games against opponents you feel have no business being on the same field as you.

I also think this is a good matchup for Connecticut’s defense. The Huskies have really struggled against strong passing teams. They have been much better against teams who like to run the ball. No surprise when you look at the fact that the Huskies are 26th against the run (125.3 ypg) this season.

Temple comes in averaging 41 rush attempts to just 29 pass attempts per game. They are also completing just 56.6% of their pass attempts. What success they do have in the passing game is often a result of their running game. Keep in mind that the Owls are 0-3 this season when they rush for fewer than 100 yards. That includes a 13-28 home loss to Army as a 14-point favorite.

UConn is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after losing 5 or 6 of their last 7. They are also a dominant 15-4 ATS in their last 19 at home off a conference loss by 10 or more points. To top it off, they are 17-5 ATS at home in Weeks 10 through 13. Take Connecticut!

4* NCAAF Thursday Night Total Annihilator on OVER

I really like the value here on these two teams going over the total. While the Cyclones only come in averaging 24.0 ppg, this is a great matchup for the ISU offense. The Cyclones have the 47th ranked passing offense in the country at 252.4 ypg. Oklahoma’s defense has been hit hard with injuries and their secondary has struggled. The Sooners rank 126th in the country against the pass, allowing a staggering 314.9 ypg.

Iowa State has thrown for 260 or more yards in 4 of their 8 games. In those 4 games they have topped that mark, they are averaging 35.8 ppg. That includes a 42 point effort against Baylor and 31 point outburst at Oklahoma State.

If the Cyclones can just get to 28 points that should be enough to push this over the total. Oklahoma is averaging a ridiculous 51.4 ppg in conference play. The only team to hold them under 40 points is Kansas State. Keep in mind that the Sooners have scored at least 48 points in each of their last 3 games against the Cyclones. That includes a 59 point outburst in their last trip to Jack Trice.

There’s little reason to believe Iowa State’s defense can keep them in check. The Cyclones rank 107th in the country in total defense, allowing 453 ypg. Note they have already allowed 41 to TCU, 45 to Baylor and 38 to Oklahoma State. The Sooners are without a doubt the best offense they have faced this season.

I think you also have to keep in mind that Oklahoma doesn’t figure to let their foot off the gas. The Sooners are still not completely out of making the playoffs. The only thing they can do at this point is destroy the opposition. They didn’t let their foot off the gas last week against Kansas until they were up 53 points.

OVER is 11-1 in Oklahoma’s last 12 road games. It’s also 16-4 in the Sooners’ last 20 with a total at 70 or more points. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Situational ATS No Brainer on Toledo -

I look for the Rockets to come out with a chip on their shoulder after losing the way they did last week to Ohio and deliver one of their best games of the season. Toledo’s defense let them down in their loss to the Bobcats. Ohio put up 512 yards of total offense with Dorian Brown rushing for 212 yards. They should be a lot better here against the Zips. Akron has little to no threat of a running game. The Zips are 110th in the country at just 135.3 ypg.

It’s also worth pointing out that Toledo has been a great bet after a poor showing defensively. The Rockets are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 450 or more total yards. They are also 7-3-2 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards.

Another big key here is that Toledo seems to play their best on the road. The Rockets are a dominant 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. They aren’t just beating bad teams on the road either. Toledo is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Arkon was equally bad defensively in their last game, allowing 518 yards to Buffalo. However, the Zips have struggled in this spot. Akron is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 450+ yards. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.

The biggest thing for me, is I just don’t think Akron’s offense can keep pace in this one. Toledo has a dynamic offense that comes in ranked 6th in the country at 544 yards/game. The Zips are 118th in total defense, allowing 483 ypg. They also come in giving up 34.2 ppg. What concerning is Akron’s opponents on average are only putting up 26.4 ppg and 385 ypg. Essentially they are allowing 7.8 ppg and 98 ypg more than what their opponents average. Take Toledo!

5* NCAAF Tuesday Night MAC Top Play on Bowling Green +

I know the Huskies are playing with revenge from last year’s MAC title game. I just feel the books are playing into that thought process here and have inflated this line because of it. At the same time, Bowling Green is not a team the public wants to back with their mere 1-7 record.

The key here is the Falcons are playing better than their record would indicate. Especially since conference play started. They have been right there with a chance to win all 4 of their MAC games in the 4th quarter. The only loss by more than a touchdown was last week’s 14-point defeat at Miami (OH). They only trailed 23-26 going into 4th and won the yardage battle 446-429. The difference in the game being they had a -3 turnover margin.

This team has played their best against the top teams in this conference. They only lost by 7-points to Toledo as a 31.5-point road underdog. They also lost by just 6-points at Ohio. Those are two of the best teams in the MAC outside of Western Michigan. Toledo is 3-1 in league play and Ohio is 4-1. While the Huskies have played a tough schedule, they also lost at home to FCS foe Western Illinois. I know they just won by 37 over Buffalo, but that’s nothing to get excited about.

My biggest concern with Northern Illinois is the defense. The Huskies come into this game ranked 117th in the country, giving up 477 ypg. Opposing teams have been able to do whatever they want. They rank 103rd against the run (213.4 ypg) and 104th against the pass (263.9 ypg). While Bowling Green is equally bad defensively, they should be able to keep pace offensively. The Falcons come into this contest with the 43rd ranked passing offense at 257.6 ypg.

Bowling Green is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against a team with a losing home record. They are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 off a double-digit loss at home. Northern Illinois is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Huskies are also 1-6 ATS in tehir last 7 after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game. I think the value is clearly with the road dog in this one. Take Bowling Green!

4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Blowout on Auburn -

I’m not just taking the Tigers because they won by 53 points last week against Arkansas. This team has come alive since that big home win over LSU. I also think they have the edge in this one on both sides of the ball.

Auburn put up 543 rushing yards on the Razorbacks last week. That’s the most rushing yards by an SEC team against a SEC opponent. They did so with starting running back Kerryon Johnson sidelined with an injury (will be back for this game). The Tigers come into this game ranked 3rd in the country in rushing at 302.9 ypg.

Hard to imagine Ole Miss being able to contain Auburn’s ground game. The Rebels rank 113th out of 128 FBS teams against the run, giving up 226.9 ypg. Last week they let LSU’s Leonard Fournette rush for 284 yards. A new SEC single-game record.

I also don’t like the mental makeup of this Rebels team. Ole Miss came into the season with the expectation of winning the SEC West and making the playoffs. That’s a complete afterthought right now, as they are just 3-4 after 7 games.

The offense has a lot of talent, but they have struggled of late, especially in the 2nd half. Now they face one of the most underrated defenses in the country. Auburn comes in allowing just 14.1 ppg and 328 ypg. They are giving up just 3.7 yards/carry and opposing QB’s are completing just 55% of their attempts.

A big key here is the Rebels don’t offer much of a threat in the running game. Ole Miss is 92nd in the country, averaging just 149.6 ypg. Dropping back to pass against the Tigers defense on the majority of snaps is a recipe for disaster. Auburn has two dynamic pass rushers in Carl Lawson and Montravius Adams.

You also can’t discount the revenge angle here. The Tigers haven't forgot about the loss Ole Miss handed them on their home field last year. They also aren’t going to take the Rebels lightly, even with how they have been struggling. Take Auburn!