3* Total Dominator on Michigan/Penn State UNDER

When you are playing host against a ranked conference opponent, and coming off a loss in which the defense gave up 44 points, you can bet head coach Bill O'Brien spent most of the week preparing the defense for this game. I believe Michigan probably spent most of their week making defensive adjustments too, since they are playing a Penn State tam that has performed so well on their home field.

The Nittany Lions are allowing a mere 13.7 points per game at home this season. Couple that with the 21 points per game allowed by the Wolverines and these teams have combined to allow a mere 34.7 points per game. The scoring averages for both Michigan and Penn State have been run up due in large part to some very soft games on the schedule. In Michigan's only road game of the season it took a late fourth quarter comeback to score just 24 points. Penn State has yet to face a team with a decent defense, and they managed just 24 points against their only conference opponent of the season. Scoring 24 points against a horrible defense like Indiana's does not inspire a lot of confidence in the Nittany Lions scoring ability, especially with the Wolverines in town.

The under is 7-2 in Michigan's last nine road games against a team with a winning home record, and 8-3 in their last 11 road games overall. I expect Penn state to make a lot of defensive adjustments since they are coming off an embarrassing loss to Indiana. The under is 7-1 in their last eight games following a straight up loss. The way these teams matchup indicates this game could be a battle of field position, and scoring drives will be few and far between.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Boston College +

The oddsmakers are giving way too much credit to the Clemson Tigers in this game. Boston College has done a great job scoring this season as they average 27.4 points per game. They have faced several quality defenses that have allowed an average of 140 rushing yards per game, yet the Eagles have tallied 190 rushing yards on 4.8 yards per carry.

The way the Clemson defense matches up with Boston College gives us a very favorable advantage. The Tigers weakest link on their defense is against the run and the Eagles have a near 2:1 run bias. The secondary has also been soft at times, allowing a 60.5% completion percentage from opposing quarterbacks when playing at home. The Eagles have completed 64.2% of their pass attempts this season.

The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record. This matchup also falls into a system to play on road underdogs like Boston College when they forced no turnovers in their previous game and they are facing an opponent with a turnover margin of +2 or better in two consecutive games. This system is 30-7 ATS over the last 10 seasons.

3* Total No Brainer on New Mexico/Wyoming OVER

There will be no shortage of scoring when Wyoming takes on New Mexico this Saturday. The Lobos are averaging 38 points per game, and will face a Wyoming defense that has been very soft this season. The Cowboys are giving up 236 rushing yards per game, and allowing a 65.8% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks.

Wyoming has also done a great job of putting points on the board as they average 37.6 points per game. They are up against a Lobo's defense that has given up 42 points per game on the road this season. The Lobos are soft defending the pass, and Wyoming has averaged 44 passing plays out of their 81 total plays on offense.

The Lobos are 9-3 to the over in their last 12 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Cowboys have a history of taking advantage of their bye weeks but putting on a strong offensive performance. The over is 10-2 in their last 12 games following a bye, and they are 34-16-1 in their last 51 games following an ATS loss.

4* Vegas Insider on Ball State -

The Ball State offense has been virtually unstoppable averaging 41.3 points per game. They have been effective running the ball, picking up 140 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry. They should be able to improve on that number against a Kent State team that is giving up 242 rushing yards per game on 5.7 yards per carry.

Kent State has had a lot of trouble getting points on the board this season. They are scoring a mere 18 points per game overall, and just 15 points per game when playing on the road. They are facing a tough Ball State defense that has held opponents to just 22 points per game at home this season.

Ball State has been a great team to back this season as they have posted a 5-1 ATS record. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against conference opponents, and 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. In head-to-head matchups between these teams the home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

3* Total Annihilator on Buffalo/Western Michigan UNDER

The total on this game has been set quite a few points higher than it should be. While neither of these teams has an overly impressive defense, it seems the oddsmakers have forgotten about that fact that neither team is scoring a lot of points either. Buffalo has averaged 16.5 points per game on the road this season, and while the defense has allowed quite a few points, they face a Western Michigan team that has averaged just 15 points per game overall. Opposing defenses have looked great when facing the Broncos and that will be the case for the Bulls today too.

Western Michigan has lost all six of their games this season. Not once have they shown us anything that would inspire confidence in their ability to score points against Buffalo today. However, we have seen times where the defense has stepped up and played pretty well. They held a tough Michigan State team to just 26 points on the road in their season opened. They have the luxury of facing Buffalo from the comfort of their home field, and that should have the defense playing well as the Bulls try to deal with a hostile environment.

The under is 6-1 in the Bull's last seven conference games. It is 4-0 in Western Michigan's last four games when coming off a game in which they accumulated less than 100 rushing yards. The under is also 6-2 in the Bronco's last eight games overall. Both of these teams are bad, but it is not the defense that is costing them games. It's their inability to move the ball on offense, and that makes the under look very favorable.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cincinnati -

It is no surprise that the Temple Owns have yet to win a game this season. They are scoring a mere 15.8 points per game and have accumulated an average of just 343 yards of offense. That is a full 112 yards per game less than Cincinnati has averaged this year. The Owls defense has also been a contributing factor to their 0-5 record. They have given up 27.2 points per game. The defense has been horrible, allowing 190 rushing yards per game and 328 passing yards.

The Owls defense is in for a long night against this Bearcats team that has averaged 200 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. Cincinnati has also completed 65.8% of their pass attempts for 254 yards. When playing at home their offensive numbers improve dramatically. They are averaging 54 points per game, 271 rushing yards and 275 passing yards in home games. The Bearcats defense has played well regardless of venue, giving up a mere 17.4 points per game.

The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record, and they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up loss of more than 20 points. The Bearcats on the other hand have posted an 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 home games, and an 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games against a team with a losing record. This matchup is completely lopsided in favor of Cincinnati, and they should have no problem winning this game by three touchdowns or more on their home field.

3* Total Dominator on San Diego State/Air Force UNDER

The total in this game has been set extremely high because both of these teams have played poorly on defense. While that may be the case, it does not change the fact that neither team is scoring a lot of points on offense this season. San Diego State has been horrible on the road, averaging just 16.5 points per game. The defense has performed well against the run, holding opponents to 3.7 points per game, and they will face an Air Force team with a very strong run bias.

The Falcons offense should struggle to put points on the board against this tough run defense, and they have had no success passing the ball. Air Force has completed 48.8% of its pass attempts this season for a measly 94 yards per game. The Air Force defense has been soft against the run, but they have faced several opponents that have strong ground attacks. San Diego State is not one of those teams, as they have been held under 125 rushing yards in three of their five games this season.

The under is 8-2 in the Aztec's last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. They have also gone under the total in seven of their last 10 games overall. The under is 4-1 in the Falcon's last five games against a team with a losing record. In head-to-head matchups between these teams the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

3* Bailout Blowout on Missouri PICK

There is no way the Vanderbilt defense will be able to slow down this Missouri Tigers team. The Tigers are averaging 45.5 points per game this season. They have accumulated 262 yards per game on the ground, and completed 67.4% of their pass attempts for an additional 287 yards. In total offense they have amassed an average of 133 yards per game more than the Commodores.

The Tigers have crushed every opponent they have faced this season. The defense has been solid, holding opponents to 21 points per game. They have faced several quality opponents this season, teams that have scored a lot of points in the first half of the season. Their run defense has been solid limiting opponents to 3.7 yards per carry, and that is a big advantage against a Vanderbilt team that has a strong run bias this season.

The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning record at home. The Commodores on the other hand have posted a 1-6 ATS record in their last seven home games against a team with a winning record on the road. Missouri

3* Oddsmakers Error on Auburn +

Statistically, the Auburn Tigers match up well against Ole Miss, yet they find themselves as a three point underdog on their home field. Both teams are averaging 28.5 points per game, and both have played some of the best teams in the SEC. Ole Miss was shutout last week against Alabama, while the Tigers managed to score 21 points in a losing effort on the road versus LSU. Defensively the Tigers have a slight edge, holding opponents to 22 points per game while Ole Miss has given up 24 points per game.

Auburn has a strong run bias this season, averaging 46 carries per game for 233 yards. They face an Ole Miss defense that has given up 168 rushing yards per game on the road this season. I would not be surprised to see the Tigers throwing the ball a little more in this game. The Ole Miss secondary has been horrible, giving up a 67.2% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks.

The Auburn Tigers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a winning record on the road. In head to head matchups between these teams the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The fact that these teams are virtually even statistically, with a slight defensive advantage for Auburn, and the Tigers having the luxury of playing from their home field, it seems like the oddsmakers may have favored the wrong team.

5* Heavy Hitter on Oklahoma -

The Horned Frogs have been a serious disappointment this season. They were beat by a double-digit margin in their losses to LSU and Texas Tech, and did not even come close to covering the spread in their win over SE Louisiana. The Sooners on the other hand are 4-0 straight up this season and 3-1 ATS. Their only close game of the season was a nine point win over an underrated West Virginia team.

The Sooners are averaging 34 points per game this season, while the defense has limited opponents to a mere 12 points per game. The Horned Frogs are averaging four points per game less than the Sooners, while the defense has given up a full 10 points per game more than Oklahoma at 22.7 points per game. Add in the fact that Oklahoma will be playing on their home field and we have a potential blowout in the making.

TCU is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games. They are also 3-14 ATS in their last seventeen games following an ATS win. The Sooners on the other hand are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games after allowing 200 yards rushing or more in their previous game. After what could be considered a soft defensive performance against Notre Dame last week, I expect Oklahoma to bounce back with a strong performance against this struggling Horned Frogs team.

3* No Doubt Rout on Northern Illinois -

The offense once again looks unstoppable for this Northern Illinois Huskies team. They are averaging 43.2 points per game. On the ground they have averaged 266 yards per game at six yards per carry. The air attack has also been solid, completing 65.1% of their pass attempts. I don

3* Total No Brainer on Central Michigan/Miami OH UNDER

Together these teams have combined to score an average of 25.7 points per game. Central Michigan runs a very balanced offensive attack, but they have had a lot of unforced errors keeping them out of the endzone. That tells me that even against a soft defense like Miami's, they are going to struggle to score points.

It is the same story for Miami Ohio. The Redhawks have scored 14 points in their games against Marshall and Illinois, they were shutout by Cincinnati and scored a single touchdown against Kentucky. None of those teams have a reputation for being strong defensively. The bottom line is simple, these teams can't move the ball well enough on offense to even come close to scoring the amount of points it would take to send this game over the total.

The Redhawks are 9-2 to the under in their last 11 games following a straight up loss, and the under is 6-1 in their last seven home games. Against conference opponents Miami Ohio has gone under the total in five of the last six games. This matchup also falls into a system to play the under when one of the teams, in this case Central Michigan, is coming off a loss by 28 or more points and they are playing an opponent that has scored seven points or less in the first half for two consecutive games. This system is 78-38 in favor of the under for the last 10 seasons.

3* Total Dominator on E. Michigan/Buffalo UNDER

This total is set extremely high given the complete lack of offense we have seen from these teams this season. Eastern Michigan has averaged 17.7 points per game. On the ground they are gaining just 2.9 yards per carry. They are a very run heavy team, and since they have been unable to move the ball with any kind of efficiency this season, I think they will do more damage to the clock than they will the scoreboard.

Buffalo has done a slightly better job of scoring points, but they have also faced a much softer schedule than Eastern Michigan. Much like their opponent, they are a run heavy team that averages 41 carries per game for 2.7 yards per carry. With both of these teams struggling to move the ball on the ground, I can't see either team putting the amount of points on the board it would take to go over this total.

The under is 7-3 in Eastern Michigan's last 10 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The under is also 6-0 in Buffalo's last six games against conference opponents and 14-2 in their last 16 home games against a team with a losing record. I expect to see the Bulls take the lead in the second half and drain the clock, which will keep this game well under the total.

5* Vegas Insider on Penn State -

There are several key angles favoring Penn State in this matchup. First of all, their offense has shown they will easily be able to keep pace with the Hoosiers. The Nittany Lions are averaging 33.2 points per game. The ground attack has been solid, gaining 4.8 yards per carry, and they are completing 62.1% of their pass attempts. Penn State has averaged 461 yards per game of total offense.

Penn State

4* Total Annihilator on BYU/Utah State UNDER

This is too many points for a game involving two outstanding defenses, and a BYU team that has struggled to put points on the board this season. The Cougars are averaging 26.5 points per game this season, but in their only road game of the year they were only able to score 16 points against Virginia. Utah State has held opponents to 17 points per game overall, with four of their five games being played on the road. I think the defense can play even better with the backing of their home crowd.

The Cougars have really struggled to move the ball this season. They are completing just 40.3% of their pass attempts, and they have been a very run heavy team through the first four weeks of the season. Teams that run the ball have a tendency to do major damage to the clock, and since they are not turning those drives into points, the under begins to look very favorable. I don't think Utah State will continue to average 40.4 points per game this week. Their scoring average is a bit inflated since they have played Air Force, Weber State and San Jose State. Those are three teams with horrible defenses. If you look at their opponents that are comparable to BYU, the Aggies have scored just 20 points per game.

The under is 5-1 in BYU's last six games against Mountain West opponents, and 16-5 in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. The Aggies are also trending towards the under with a 12-3 record in their last 15 games following a win. The under is 7-1 in Utah State's last eight home games. Since Utah State will not be able to score like they have against some of their soft opponents, I can't see a scenario where they even come close to matching their scoring average tonight. The Cougars offense has been non-existent making the under an easy call for this game.

4* Total Dominator on UCLA/Utah OVER

The total on this game has been set far too low for two teams with such impressive scoring ability. The Bruins have averaged 52.7 points per game this season gaining 284 rushing yards and 330 yards per game through the air. The Utes defense has not faced an offense as dynamic as UCLA's so I expect the Bruins to continue piling on points this week.

The Utes are also a team that can light up a scoreboard. They have scored 42 points per game on the season. Three of their four games have come at home, and Utah's scoring average increases to 49.3 points in those games. They face a Bruins team that is giving up 162 rushing yards per game, and a secondary that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60% of their pass attempts on the road this season.

The over is 8-2 in the Bruin's last 10 games overall, and 7-1 in their last eight games following a straight up win. They are also trending towards the over with a 5-2 record in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. The over is 7-1 in the Ute's last eight home games, and 5-1 in their last six conference games. With two teams that are averaging a combined 94.7 points per game, this 61 point total seems to be quite a bit lower than it should be.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Nevada -

Nevada has certainly had their share of scoring troubles this year, averaging just 23.5 points per game. However, this week they face an Air Force defense that has given up an average of 40.7 points per game. The Falcon's secondary has been horrible, allowing a 79.1% completion rate from opposing quarterbacks for 295 passing yards per game.

While the Falcons have done a decent job running the ball this season, I don't expect them to be able to keep pace with Nevada in this game. They are averaging 25.2 yards per game. Part of the problem with the Falcon's defense has been the inability to move the ball on offense and allow adequate rest time between drives. They run the ball at a near 4:1 ratio, the Wolfpack should be able to stack and extra player or two in the box to keep Air Force in check.

The Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points, and they are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall dating back to last season. This matchup falls into a system to play against a road team like Air Force when they have been outscored by opponents by 10 or more points per game and have allowed 31 points or more in three straight games. This system is 69-32 (68%) against the spread.

4* No Brainer on Missouri -

This Missouri offense looks unstoppable this season. They are averaging 47 points per game, gaining 270 yards on the ground and 297 yards through the air. They face a soft Arkansas State defense that has given up 6.6 yards per carry in their two road games this season. With the Tigers running the ball as efficiently as they have, there is no reason to believe the Tigers won't score at will just like they have all season.

Arkansas State has also been a run-heavy team, but they do not move the ball like the Tigers do. They face a Missouri defense that has held opponents to just 115 yards per game on the ground this season. If the Red Wolves do decide to throw the ball, they will have to beat a Tigers secondary that has held opposing quarterbacks to a 58.6% completion rate.

Arkansas State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when they are coming off a performance in which they accumulated less than 275 total yards. They are also 5-20 ATS against good rushing teams that are averaging 4.75 yards per carry or more. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games they are certainly good enough to win this game by a number closer to four touchdowns.

3* No Doubt Rout on Wyoming -

The Wyoming Cowboys are still not receiving as much credit as they should be from the oddsmakers. The Cowboys are averaging 41.7 points per game this season. They put up 34 points against a tough Big Ten defense in the season opener against Nebraska. While Texas State's defensive stats may look good on paper, they have really only faced one decent team this season, giving up 33 points to Texas Tech.

The Texas State offense has had a lot of trouble moving the ball. They average just 3.6 yards per carry on the ground, and have completed a mere 57.5% of their pass attempts for 144 yards per game. Those numbers don't even compare to the 5.8 yards per carry from and 330 passing yards per game from the Cowboys. Wyoming also has a solid defense that has held their opponents to just 19.2 points per game this year.

The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against a team with a winning record. They are also 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games overall. The last time the Cowboys and Bobcats met in 2011, Wyoming handed the Bobcats a 45-10 loss. Based on how these teams have performed so far this year, there is no reason to expect an outcome that is far off of that performance.

5* Total Annihilator on Army/LA Tech UNDER

It appears the oddsmakers have still not caught on to the fact that this Louisiana Tech team is not going to put up numbers like they did last season. They are currently averaging just 16.5 points per game, and unlike last year, have a very balanced offensive attack. They are 1-3 on the season, with the most points scored coming in at 27 against Lamar. While Army is certainly not a top tier team, they defense will certainly be a much more difficult to score on than Lamar was.

Don't expect a lot of scoring out of Army either. The Bulldogs have made a concentrated effort to improve on defense with their new head coach. They have held opponents to just 22.7 points per game this year. They should have no problem improving on that number this weekend against an Army team that has averaged just 14 points per game when playing away from home this year.

The Bulldogs have gone under the total in their last four games. The Black Knights are 5-1 to the under in their last five games overall, dating back to last season. This matchup also falls into a system to play the under in a neutral field game with a total between 49.5 to 56 points, when one of the teams is outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards per game on the season like Army has. Good running teams are clock killers, and that has led to a 28-4 (87.5%) record in favor of the under over the past five seasons.

4* Heavy Hitter on Florida State -

The Seminoles are averaging 52.3 points per game this season. They have an outstanding ground attack that has averaged 37 carries for 266 yards per game. That comes out to an average of 7.2 yards per carry, and they face a Boston College defense that has been very soft in yards allowed against both the run and pass.

Even if the Eagles could stop the Seminoles ground attack, Florida State can beat teams through the air too. They are completing 75% of their pass attempts for an average of 281 yards per game. They face a Boston College team averaging just 3.7 yards per carry on the ground, and a total of 164 yards per game through the air.

Boston College has a history of losing its backers money in the first half of the season posting a 3-13 ATS record over the past three seasons. The Eagles are also 0-6 ATS against good offensive teams that are scoring 34 or more points per game over the past three seasons. This matchup also falls into a system to play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Florida State when they have scored 37 points or more in three straight games. This system is 53-18 ATS over the last 10 seasons.

5* No Limit on Iowa -

The Hawkeyes could be one of the biggest turnaround teams in college football this season. After opening the season with a three point loss to Northern Illinois, the Hawkeyes have since won three consecutive games and covered the spread in two of those three matchups. They have done so with an outstanding offense that averages 35.2 points per game and a defense that has held opponents to 17 points per game.

Minnesota's secondary is in for a long day. They have been torched all season, to the tune of a 65.8% completion rate from opposing quarterbacks and 270 yards per game through the air. Their offensive numbers are a bit inflated thanks to a soft schedule. They should struggle in Big Ten play this year as they will be facing teams with strong run defense. The Gophers average just 15 pass attempts per game so they should be an easy team to defend against since they are a one-sided offense.

This matchup falls into a system to play on road teams like Iowa when they are scoring 35 or more points per game, after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. This system is 58-26 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons. If that is not enough, the Hawkeyes are also 20-3 ATS against run heavy teams that are averaging 5.25 or more yards per carry.

3* Total Dominator on Navy/WKU OVER

The total on this game is set far too low for two teams that are averaging 80.2 points per game combined this season. Defensively they are allowing 52.5 points per game combined, and they way each team matches up tells me they will not be able to match their points allowed averages on the season. Navy has a big run bias, facing a Western Kentucky defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry, while WKU runs a balanced attack with a solid passing game that should exploit Navy's secondary with easy.

Navy runs the ball an average of 66 times per game for 398 yards. Their triple option will be a look that Western Kentucky has not seen this season, and no team in college football runs the triple option as well as the Midshipmen. Western Kentucky has completed 62.4% of their pass attempts this season. They face a Navy defense that has a weak secondary, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.7% of their pass attempts for 271 yards per game.

This matchup falls into a very profitable system to play the over. You should take the over when the total is between 56.5 to 63 points and the matchup features a team that is outgaining opponents my 1.2 or more yards per play like Navy after two consecutive games where they gained 6.75 or more yards per play, against a team that is with .6 yards per play to their opponents. This system is 28-7 (80%) in favor of the over.

3* Total Dominator on Mid Tenn/BYU UNDER

The way these teams match up presents a very favorable opportunity to play on the under. Middle Tennessee is a run-heavy team. They are facing a BYU defense that has limited opponents to just 3.2 yards per carry. The Blue Raiders offensive numbers are also a bit inflated since they have played such a soft schedule. I think the Cougars can limit them to less than their 3.2 yards per carry allowed since they have put up that number against much stronger competition.

Scoring will not come easy for BYU either. For starters, their passing game has been non-existent this season. The Cougars are completing just 34.8% of their pass attempts. They are also a very run heavy team facing a quality run defense. The Blue Raiders have limited their opponents to just 152 yards per game on an average of 42 rushing attempts. That number is less than half of the 307 yards the Cougars have been gaining on the ground this season. Most of BYU's offensive statistics have been inflated because of their big win over Texas. They struggled to get points on the board against both Virginia and Utah, averaging just 14.5 points between those two games.

The under is 13-3 in the Cougar's last 16 games against a team with a winning record. When they are at home against a team winning 60% to 75% of their games, like the Blue Raiders have, the under has a 10-1 record. The under is also 5-1 in the Blue Raiders last six non-conference games. With two teams that love to run the ball, and two defenses that have played well against the run, I don't see many scenarios where this game exceeds the 59.5 point total.

4* Heavy Hitter on Tulsa -

The Cyclones defense is very soft this year. They have given up an average of 223 yards per game on the ground, and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.2% of their pass attempts for another 194 yards. The defense has given up 27.5 points per game through the first two weeks of the season. What makes those numbers even worse is the fact that the season opening loss came against Northern Iowa, which is an FCS program.

Tulsa's offensive numbers are a bit misleading since they have played such a difficult schedule the first three weeks of their season. They opened against Bowling Green, one of the most underrated defenses in college football. Two weeks ago they played a tough Oklahoma team that has one of the Big 12's best defenses. Against a soft team like Iowa State, the Golden Hurricane's should have no problem exceeding their scoring averages this week.

The Golden Hurricane are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when coming off a bye week. The Cyclones have not fared as well when they are coming off a bye, posting a 3-8 ATS record in their last 11 games. Iowa State is also 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games, and 9-27 ATS in their last 36 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Virginia Tech +

The Hokies offense is averaging 24.7 points per game this season. This is a very physical team with a strong offensive line. The Hokies have rushed for 161 yards per game, which includes a 153 yard performance on the ground against the nation's No. 1 ranked team, Alabama.

Virginia Tech's defense figures to cause the Yellow Jackets all kinds of trouble this week. Through the first four weeks of the season, the Hokies have forced 10 turnovers. Georgia Tech has yet to face a decent defense this season, so they will get their first real test of the season Thursday night. The Yellow Jackets are a very run heavy team which plays into the Hokies greatest strength on defense. Virginia Tech has held opponents to just 96 yards per game on the ground for an average of 2.6 yards per carry.

The Hokies have played well under the Thursday night spotlight, posting a 19-8 ATS record in their last 27 games. They face a Yellow Jackets team that is 6-18 ATS in their last 24 home games against a team with a winning road record. I like Virginia Tech's chances to pick up a win this week, but since this is a road game we will take the seven-points.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Wyoming -

This Wyoming team is a lot better than what they get credit for. The Cowboys opened the season by playing on the road against Nebraska. They were 31-point underdogs in that game, and almost pulled off an upset losing 34-37. In weeks two and three they were four touchdown favorites against Idaho and Northern Colorado and covered the spread both times. The Cowboys balanced attack through the air and on the ground has been difficult for opposing teams to defend. They are averaging 218 rushing yards per game and 316 passing yards.

Air Force has been a major disappointment this season. They have been blown out in back-to-back weeks against Utah State and Boise State. Their only win of the season came in the season opener against Colgate, and they failed to cover the spread. Their one sided offense moves the ball well with the triple option, but it is their defense that has cost them so many games. The Falcons are giving up 35.7 points per game, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 76.5% of their pass attempts and giving up over 200 yards per game on the ground.

Air Force is 7-21 ATS against excellent passing teams that are averaging 275 or more passing yards per game. This matchup falls into a system to play on a road team like Wyoming when they have allowed 14 points or less in two straight games, and they are playing against an opponent that is coming off a game where they allowed 37 points or more. This system is 30-7 (81%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* No Brainer on Michigan -

The close game against Akron last week is carrying too much weight with the oddsmakers. When you break these two teams down, the Wolverines are clearly a team that should win by three touchdowns or more. They are averaging 42.7 points per game, and have done it against a much stronger strength of schedule than what UConn has faced this season.

The Huskies opened the season as 16.5-point favorites against Towson, and ended up losing that game straight up by 15-points. In week two against Maryland they were 4.5-point home underdogs, and were handed another double-digit loss. This is a bad team that is going to get destroyed by one of the Big Ten's best.

Michigan is 5-0 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record. Every team responds differently to a bad game. For Michigan, they come out and dominate the following week. When coming off an ATS loss the Wolverines are 5-1 ATS the following game. UConn is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

3* Total Annihilator on Texas State/Texas Tech OVER

Texas Tech's offense looks great this year, and they have put up 40.7 points per game through the first three weeks of the season. The Red Raiders are 3-0, and the over is 19-8 in Texas Tech's last 27 games after three or more consecutive wins. They face a Texas State defense that looks better statistically than they actually are. Texas State has yet to face a decent offense in their first two games.

Much like their opponent, the Red Raiders defense is being overvalued based on the first three weeks of the season. Texas Tech has not faced a decent offense, which has held their points allowed well below where it will land in this game. They have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just shy of 63% of all pass attempts and have given up 290 passing yards per game. There is no doubt about the fact that the Red Raiders are going to score a lot of points, and as bad as their defense is against the pass, they won't be posting any defensive shutouts.

The over is 10-1 in the Red Raiders last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. It is 4-1 in the last five home games for the Texas Tech, and 16-5 in their last 21 non-conference games. This matchup also falls into a system to play the over when the total is between 56.5 to 63 points, when one team is out-gaining opponents by 1.2 or more yards per play and averaging over 525 total yards per game over their last two games like Texas Tech, against a team that is averaging within .6 yards per play to their previous opponents. This system is 33-11 in favor of the over.

4* Heavy Hitter on Maryland -

West Virginia is clearly going to be one of the worst teams in their conference. They face a Maryland team that has dominated every opponent they have faced this season, posting a 3-0 straight up and against the spread record. The Mountaineers only ATS win came in week two against an Oklahoma team that was still trying to figure out who was going to be the quarterback for the season.

The biggest difference maker in this game is the quick scoring ability of Maryland. The Terrapins average 40.7 points per game, while the Mountaineers have managed just 24 points per game. West Virginia lost too many key players on offense, including quarterback Geno Smith. It is obvious through the first three weeks of the season that this is going to be a rebuilding year for the Mountaineers.

In the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams the favorite is 4-1 ATS. The Mountaineers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games against ACC opponents and 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Maryland on the other than is 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall dating back to last season.

3* No Doubt Rout on Ball State -

This Eastern Michigan team is bad. They are scoring just 17 points per game through the first three weeks of the season, while the defense is giving up an average of 32.3 points per game. They have leaned heavily on the run, but it has been extremely ineffective. Eastern Michigan is averaging 90 yards per game on the ground at an average of 2.3 yards per carry.

I expect to see Ball State put up a big number playing against such a soft defense. To this point in the season the Cardinals have averaged 39.3 points per game. Ball State has thrown for over 300 yards in each of their first three games this season. Expect that trend to continue today against a pass defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65% of their pass attempts.

The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games against a team with a losing home record and 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games. Ball State has been a great team to back on the road for several seasons. They are 38-15 ATS in their last 53 road games. The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Boise State +

It appears the wrong team is favored in this rivalry game between the Broncos and Bulldogs. I think the season opening loss from Boise is holding too much stock with the oddsmakers, which is why they have Fresno favored in this game. However, the Broncos snapped back from the loss to Washington by putting impressive beat downs on their opponents in the following two weeks.

Fresno State has yet to play a talented team. They were 10.5 point favorites in week one, and 27 point favorites in week two, and they failed to cover the spread in both of those games. It may look like the Bulldogs are coming off a bye week too, but it is not a traditional bye in the sense that they were given extra time to prepare for the Broncos. Fresno State was scheduled to play last weekend, but the game was postponed due to weather issues. They are actually preparing for today's matchup on a short week, while the Broncos played a Friday game last week and have had a full week to prepare for this game.

In the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these teams Boise State owns an 11-1 ATS record. In the last six games played at Fresno State they have a 5-1 ATS record. Fresno has not had a lot of success when playing in these short week situations, posting a 2-10 ATS record in their last 12 Friday games.

3* Main Event on NC State +

NC State is not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers in this game. The Wolfpack offense is loaded with talent, averaging 31.5 points per game. They did have four turnovers in their last game against Richmond, but that is very unlikely to happen in back-to-back weeks. The defense has also been playing great, allowing an average of 17.5 points per game.

There is no denying that Clemson is a good team, but they squeaked by Georgia in their season opener at home. In week two, even if the defense could have posted a shutout Clemson would have suffered an ATS loss because they didn't score enough points to cover the 52.5-point line. That is a big indication that this team is not as good as the oddsmakers believe they are. Both of their games have been at home this year, but this week they will be playing in hostile territory. The Tigers defense is the reason they will not cover the spread in this game. They simply give up too many points, and won't be able to score enough to cover more than two touchdowns against the Wolfpack.

The Wolfpack are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. They are also 16-4 ATS with one push in their last 21 home teams against a team with a winning record. In the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams, the Wolfpack own a 4-1 ATS record.

4* Total Annihilator on Purdue/Notre Dame UNDER

This matchup features two quality defenses, and two offenses that have had trouble moving the ball. The Irish were in a shootout with Michigan last week, but I expect a completely different result in this game. In their season opener they held Temple to just six points, and should have no problem keeping this Purdue team in check. Purdue had just 65 yards on the ground in their season opener against Cincinnati.

The under is 7-1 in Notre Dame

5* No Brainer on Rice -

Rice played a great game against Texas A&M in their season opener. Regardless of Johnny Manziel being out in the first half, Rice put up 31 points on an SEC defense. Their opponent today, Kansas played a much softer opponent in their season opener when they faced South Dakota.

The Jayhawks defense was horrible defending against the run, allowing 219 yards on 43 carries from South Dakota. This week they face a Rice team that had over 300 yards on the ground against Texas A&M. I expect Rice to pound the ball against Kansas in this game, controlling the pace and time of possession.

Rice is 12-3 in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game. The Kansas Jayhawks rarely put together quality back-to-back defensive performances, especially when playing on the road. They are 4-14 ATS in road games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game.

3* No Doubt Rout on Ball State -

Ball State continues to be undervalued by the oddsmakers. They are 2-0 straight up and 2-0 ATS to start the season. In their season opener, they were 13 point favorites against Illinois State and won by 23 points. Last week they were 10.5 point favorites against Army and won by 26 points.

North Texas has been plagued by turnovers this season. They had two in their loss to Idaho and four last week against Ohio. The Mean Green do not have the offensive talent to keep pace with this Ball State team, especially when they turn the ball over so much.

The Ball State Cardinals are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win. They are also 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The mean green are 8-23 ATS against a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last four home games against a team with a winning road record.

4* Heavy Hitter on Alabama -

This is a revenge game for Alabama after Texas A&M ruined their perfect season last year. The Crimson Tide defense is off to another great start, holding Virginia Tech to just 10 points in their season opener. The offense was efficient putting up 35 points, and I expect a similar result in this game against an Aggies defense that has allowed 29.5 points per game in their first two games.

The Aggies have failed to cover the spread in each of their first two games. The defense has looked horrible giving up 31 points to Rice and 28 points to Sam Houston State. Against a tough defense like Alabama's, the Aggies cannot afford to give up that many points. There is no way the offense will be able to keep pace with the Crimson Tide.

With Alabama coming off a bye week, they have had some extra time to prepare for this game. I think the pressure and distractions will get to Johnny Manziel coming into this matchup. The Crimson Tide have the better team, the better coach and revenge on their side. Alabama played a mediocre game in their season opener and still dominated, but rest assured they will bring their best in this one.

3* Total Dominator on Bowling Green/Indiana OVER

There should be no shortage of scoring when the Bowling Green Falcons take on the Indiana Hoosiers. The Falcons have averaged 37.5 points per game this season while the Hoosiers have scored 54 points per game. It is not surprising that both teams are scoring so many points since they each have 10 returning starters on offense from last season.

Indiana style of play involves getting their opponent into a shootout. Their defense is almost non-existent allowing 38 points per game. The Falcons defense has yet to face an opponent with a scoring potential that Indiana brings to the table.

Indiana is 11-2 to the over in home games over the last three seasons. They are also 8-1 to the over after allowing 6.75 yards per play or more in their previous game. This game falls into a system to play the over when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points in a game involving two teams coming off of two consecutive games where they gained 475 yards or more. This system is 25-5 to the over.

3* Main Event on Boise State -

The Broncos are big favorites in this game, and justifiably so. After getting smoked on the road against Washington, Boise State responded by putting up 63 points at home versus Tennessee Martin. The offense plays exceptionally well in front of the home crowd. Joe Southwick threw five touchdown passes in that game and did not have a single interception.

I expect Boise to put up another big number in this game against a soft Air Force defense. The Falcons have allowed an average of 32.5 points per game and have yet to face an offense as potent as the Bronco's. The Falcons offense has sputtered this season and that is to be expected from a team that returns just four offensive starters.

The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Broncos have a history of getting off to a quick start. They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played in September. They also play well on a short week going 5-1 ATS in their last six games played on Friday.

3* Main Event on TCU -

Texas Tech has not faced a quality team yet this season. That changes today when they take on the TCU Horned Frogs. TCU played a great game against LSU in their season opener and I think the tougher schedule has them a little more prepared for this game. The Horned Frogs defense was solid last season, and they returned nine defensive starts for this year. With Casey Pachall returning at quarterback for the offense, this is a team that has a good chance at finishing among the top of Big 12 standings.

Texas Tech's achilles heel in this game will be there defense. They gave up 31.8 points per game last season. They also have to deal with learning the new schemes that come with a first year head coach. Their soft schedule has afforded them a 2-0 start, but this is a team riddled with problems. Last week they had four turnovers against SF Austin. TCU was able to put up 27 points on a stacked LSU defense, and they should perform even better against Texas Tech today.

The combination of turnover problems and a complete lack of defense make the Horned Frogs an easy call in this game. The Red Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games. TCU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss.

3* Total Annihilator on Tulane/La Tech OVER

Defense is a word that is not in the vocabulary for either of these teams. Tulane has yet to face an offense as potent as Louisiana Tech's, but they still gave up 39 points at home against South Alabama. This will be the first road game of the season for the Green Wave and I expect the hostile environment to take its toll.

Louisiana Tech gave up 40 points in their season opener. The offense is still make adjustments, but they showed a lot of improvement last week. While the Bulldogs probably won't match last year's 51.5 points per game, they should still have no problem putting up a big number on Tulane's non-existent defense.

The over is 8-1 in Louisiana Tech's last nine games following a win, and 6-1 in their last seven games when coming off a 200+ yard rushing performance in their previous game. Both teams are playing on a short week, giving their defenses less time to prepare for this game. Louisiana Tech is 10-1 to the over when playing with 6 or less days of rest over the last two seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UTEP -

New Mexico looked horrible in their week one loss to UTSA. The Lobos came into that game as 3.5-point favorites, and ended up losing outright by 8-points. They have now lost seven straight games after finishing the 2012 season with six consecutive losses. Over the past four years New Mexico has a 7-41 record. The Lobos have just four starters returning on defense and will start from scratch in the secondary.

The Miners picked up a solid transfer from Texas A&M at the quarterback position. Jameill Showers should bring a dynamic that this team has not seen in recent years. Jordan Leslie should make the quarterback job look easy, coming off a 973 yard season with six touchdowns. The defense was soft last season, but they have Horace Miller coming off a six sack season on the end, and Germard Reed who had seven tackles for a loss last year playing the defensive tackle position. Richard Spencer, the team

5* Total No Brainer on Notre Dame/Michigan UNDER

This game should be a defensive battle based on what we saw in week one from both of these teams. The Irish held Temple to just 6-points, while Michigan held Central Michigan to 9-points. The Irish also showed us that the team will once again be carried by the defense. The managed to put up just 28 points against a Temple team whose defense does not even belong in the same conversation as Michigan.

Don

3* Total Dominator on Indiana/Navy OVER

There will be no shortage of offense in this game. Indiana is coming off a 73 point performance against Indiana State, a game in which they had over 600 yards of offense and nine touchdowns. The Hoosiers special teams also picked up a touchdown on a 58 yard punt return by Shane Wynn. Indiana

3* Main Event on Oregon -

The Ducks are coming off a season in which they were arguably the best team in the nation. They came out in made a statement in week one by beating Nicholls State with a 66-3 final score. The new head coach for Oregon should be an easy transition to handle for this team. Mark Helfrish was the offensive coordinator so there should not be any dramatic changes in the schemes run by this team.

Virginia scored 20 points or less a total of eight times last season on their way to a 4-8 finish. They will have to find a way to move the ball without Michael Rocco who transferred, and Phillip Sims who is academically ineligible. David Watford was under center in the Cavaliers week one matchup against BYU. While Watford finished the game with a solid completion percentage going 18 of 32, he had just 114 yards and an interception. Watford is not a mobile quarterback, yet he carried the ball 10 times for 10 yards in that game.

The Ducks are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games versus a team with a winning home record. They are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Virginia is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win and 1-8 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Cavaliers will not be able to slow down one of the nation

3* No Doubt Rout on Ball State -

The Ball State Cardinals enter this game coming off a dominating performance over Illinois State. The Cardinals put up 51 points in what would turn out to be a blowout in week one. Keith Wenning completed 24 of his 40 passing attempts for 340 yards and three touchdowns. The most impressive number from their week one matchup is zero. That is the number of turnovers committed by the Cardinals.

Army

4* Heavy Hitter on Houston -

The Houston Cougars should have no shortage of offensive production again this season. Last year they were the nation

3* Main Event on Wake Forest +

Wake Forest's dual threat quarterback, Tanner Price, should wreak havoc on Boston College today. Last week Price carried the ball 14 times, with his longest run totaling 15 yards. He also had a touchdown on the ground and one through the air. Last season Price passed for 2300 yards and 12 touchdowns, and with a healthy offensive line, I expect him to put up even bigger numbers this year.

Boston College is coming off a 2-10 season where they scored just 13.9 points per game in their final seven games. They have a new coach and I expect the struggles that come with learning a new coaches systems to show in this matchup against Wake Forest. The ground attack is weak, averaging 91 rushing yards per game last year, a feat that was 6th-fewest among FBS teams.

Boston College has a history of getting off to a slow start. They are 2-11 ATS in the first half of the season, over the last three seasons. The Eagles are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Wake Forest is coming off a big win over Presbyterian, but they failed to cover a line that was over five touchdowns. The Demon Deacons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss.

4* Vegas Insider on Florida State -

Florida State will have several key advantages in this matchup against Pittsburgh. The Panthers are coming off a season in which they finished with a losing record, and ranked fifth in the Big East. They made the move to the ACC, where the talent level is not even comparable. Florida State finished 1st in the ACC and they come in to the 2013 season ranked as one of the top 15 teams in the nation.

The Panthers have just five starters returning on the offensive side of the ball, and they face a Florida State defense that held opponents to 14.7 points per game last year. The Panthers are no match for the running back combination of Devonta Freeman and James Wilder Jr. The duo combined for 19 touchdowns last season and ran for 1,300 yards.

The Panthers offense is in shambles. They are without their star quarterback and running back from last season due to graduation. (QB Tino Sunseri and RB Ray Graham.) Next in line at running back was Rushel Shell, who decided to transfer in the offseason. The only "star" player the Panthers return is Devin Street at wide receiver, but he has no one to throw him the ball. Florida State should run all over Pittsburgh, and the Panthers will have no way to respond offensively. Lay the points on the Seminoles because this game won't be as close as the oddsmakers have listed it.

3* Main Event on Ohio +

The Ohio Bobcats are not getting as much respect as they deserve coming into this game against Louisville. Last season Ohio finished with a respectable 9-4 record. Their offense was spectacular, scoring 31.7 points per game. The Bobcats could have been even better, if not for a wealth of key injuries on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals came in slightly under the Bobcats in scoring average at 31.2 points per game last year, and that will be a tough number for them to match again.

The oddsmakers have over valued the Cardinals in this game. Louisville may be coming off an 11-2 season, but they have just six starters returning on offense and their defense was mediocre at best. The Cardinals will have to deal with Tyler Tettleton from the Bobcats. Tettleton led his team to a 7-0 start last year, but injuries kept them from dominating the second half of the season. Beau Blankenship figures to be a huge factor in this game for Ohio. He had 1,604 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. They will also have Travis Carrie and Jamil Shaw back on the corners, returning from near season long injuries.

The Cardinals are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games while Ohio is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. The offensive advantage has to go in Ohio's favor today. Defensively, these teams are pretty equal, with a small edge going to Louisville because of the competition they face playing in a better conference. I don't think they will slow Ohio down, and I have this game ending in a close thriller.

3* Oddsmakers Error on California +

Cal is getting too many points in a game that could easily go either way. Two of Northwestern's three losses came on the road last season, and two of their three remaining road wins came by a touchdown or less. That third game against Minnesota was decided by eight points.

The Cal defense should be a lot better this season with the majority of their returning starters coming on that side of the ball. Northwestern had several key losses on the offensive line, losing two guards and Patrick Ward, an outstanding offensive tackle. Cal's offense should have no problems scoring on a Northwestern defense that gave up 28.5 points per game on the road last season.

The Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against Big Ten opponents. Oddsmakers have a tendency to over value teams like Northwestern. This game falls into a system to play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season after closing out last season with three or more straight wins. This system is 41-14 (75%) ATS.

4* Total Annihilator UCLA/Nevada OVER

The total in this game may be above average, but it is for good reason. Last year Nevada scored an average of 40.9 points per game while the Bruins averaged 34.4 points of their own. Neither defense is overly talented which means this game should be a shootout. Offseason moves actually made both of these defenses worse. Nevada is virtually the same team on offense so matching last years scoring average should not be an issue.

The Wolf Pack have just five starters returning to a defense that allowed 33.8 points per game. They are going to be taking a step back this year, and I would not be surprised to see that average creeping up in the wrong direction. The offense should still be stacked as offensive coordinator Nick Rolovich stuck around with new head coach Brian Polian. Rolovich will go with the same Pistol offense from last year that was so successful. Quarterback Cody Fajardo is comfortable in the offense and he will have one of his favorite receivers back in Brandon Wimberly.

The Bruins ranked 24th among FBS team in yards per game last season with 467. Quarterback Brett Hundley passed for 3,470 yard with 29 touchdowns. The running game has taken a hit for the Bruins, but they should still have no problem scoring points by getting the ball to Shaquelle Evans who had 877 receiving yards and three touchdowns last season. I can't see a scenario where either team is slowed down by the opposing defense in this game.

4* No Limit on Washington Huskies -

The Washington Huskies are undervalued in this game. This is a rematch from last year

3* Total Dominator on UAB/Troy OVER

This matchup features to defenses that are pretty horrible. Last season UAB allowed an average of 40 points per game on the road, while Troy gave up 34.5 points per game at home. Neither team should show much improvement on the defensive front as Troy returns just five defensive starters and UAB saw most of their improvements on the offensive side of the ball.

I expect UAB to make a dramatic increase in offensive production this year. Last season they scored an average of 28.2 points per game, and against a soft Troy defense they should have no problem improving on that number. Troy scored an average of 31.2 points per game and averaged 55 yards per game more than each of their conference opponents. UAB comes out of Conference USA, where defense is not exactly a top priority.

Head coach Larry Blakeney is 27-11 to the over in non-conference games as the coach of Troy. The over is 5-1 in UAB's last six games against Sun Belt Opponents. The over is also 4-0 in Troy's last four home games. With both teams trending towards the over, and a game featuring two terrible defenses, the over is an easy call.

5* No Brainer on Marshall -

These teams headed in opposite directions during the offseason. Marshall has 15 returning starters, eight on offense, to a team that scored 40.9 points per game last season. The defense needed a little tune up, so the Thundering Herd brought in new defensive coordinator Chuck Heater. Two of the leading tacklers on this team are back this season, Jermaine Homes and D.J. Hunter, combining for 183 tackles last season. Part of the reason the defense played so poorly came from returning four starters, and replacing their top four tacklers. This year that is not an issue so they will definitely be improved on that side of the ball.

The Miami OH defense allowed 41.4 points per game on the road last year. The Redhawks were able to win four games last season because the offense could put points on the board quickly. This year they are without Zac Dystert at quarterback due to graduation, and they lost stud wide receiver Nick Harwell who transferred. The Redhawks running game is virtually non-existent. That will force Austin Boucher to make plays with his arm, and the talent simply is not there.

There are too many glaring holes from this Redhawks team. Rakeem Cato had 4,201 passing yards and 37 touchdowns with just 11 interceptions for Marshall last year and he is going to pick apart one of the worst defenses in the FBS. Miami OH's pass protection is the worst in the FBS. The Redhawks are the fourth worst rushing team in college football. I don't see a scenario where the Redhawks are able to move the ball against the Thundering Herd.

3* Oddsmakers Error on SMU +

Texas Tech's secondary is highly inexperienced. This is a defense that allowed 45 points per game in its final seven games last year. All that inexperience and poor performing has forced defensive coordinator Matt Wallerstedt to switch to a 3-4 setup. Changing the defensive scheme is not going to be enough to improve one of the nation's worst defenses by the first game of the season.

SMU will obviously not have many problems passing against the Red Raiders. They should also not have any issues running the ball with Texas transfer Traylon Shead. In the spring game Shead looked solid and the Mustangs, justifiably, have high hopes for him this year.

This matchup falls into a profitable system. You want to to play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10.5 points in a game that involves two winning teams from last season, playing in a non-conference game. This system has a 42-15 (74%) ATS record.

5* Vegas Insider on Ole Miss -

Head coach Hugh Freeze has given this program a major turnaround in his first season. He took a team that finished 2-10 in 2011, to a bowl game appearance in his first year. The Rebels played close games against Texas A&M and LSU, and Freeze is quickly gaining a reputation as one of the elite coaches in college football.

The Rebels will be the motivated team in this game. Last season Vanderbilt pulled off an upset on the Rebels home field and Ole Miss's 16 returning starters will be out for revenge in this game. In head-to-head games against Vanderbilt, the road team has covered in four of the last five meetings.

This matchup falls into a system to play against a team like Vanderbilt in the first week of the season when they closed out last season with three or more ATS covered and won 60% to 80% of their games, playing against another team that had a winning record. This system is 25-4 (86%) because it identifies teams that are coming into a game being over-valued.

3* No Doubt Rout on South Carolina -

South Carolina should once again be very talented on both sides of the ball. They are coming off a season in which they scored 37.6 points per game at home, while the defense allowed a mere 13.6 per game. The Tar Heels on the other hand were a very one sided team. The offense could certainly put points on the board, but their horrible defense kept opponents in the game.

The Tar Heels will be without their star running back, Giovani Bernard, who left early for the NFL. That is going to prevent the North Carolina from using a balanced attack this year, like they did they did last season. The Tar Heels defense allowed 33+ points in five of their last seven games. Facing an SEC powerhouse like South Carolina will be no easy task today.

This game falls into an early season system. You want to play on teams winning 80% or more of their games in the previous year when they closed out the season with at least four wins in their last five games, and they are favored by 10.5 to 21 points in the first month of the season. This system is an impressive 37-12 (76%) ATS.

4* Main Event Major on Alabama -10

These are two very excellent defensive teams, with Alabama only allowing 10.7 ppg and Notre Dame giving up 10.3 ppg. The difference comes on the offensive side of the ball, where the Tide are scoring 38.5 ppg and the Irish only put up 26.7.

Notre Dame is a run heavy team and they have moved the ball well on the ground, averaging 5 yards per rush on the season. They are not going to have much luck against Alabama's run defense though. The Tide allow just 2.5 yards per rush on the season. Can the Irish count on freshman Everett Gholson to perform on the big stage? I have my doubts.

Alabama on the other hand can rely on moving the ball in a balanced fashion. They have AJ McCarron who has been here before, leading the Tide to a national championship a year ago. He has completed 66.3% of his passes on the year for 9.3 yards per attempt and has a two headed running attack helping him out behind TJ Yeldon and Eddie Lacy.

Lot of trends pointing our way in this one as well. The Irish are 5-21 ATS against teams allowing less than 285 yards per game since 1992 while the Tide are 19-5 ATS off a no-cover in a game they won as a favorite. Nick Saban is 13-5 ATS on the road after giving up 7 points or less in the first half of two straight games.

4* Major Mismatch on Ole Miss -3

These two teams might have identical records at 6-6, but there is no doubt that Ole Miss played the tougher schedule by going through the SEC instead of the Big East. The Rebels record could have been better. They lost by six at LSU but outgunned the Tigers, they lost in the closing minute by one to Vanderbilt despite out gaining the Commodores by nearly 100 years. The loss in Georgia isn't a surprise and isn't a knock when you consider how good the Bulldogs were, same with Texas A&M and at Alabama.

Pitt on the other hand started the season off with a couple of embarrassing losses to Youngstown State and Cincinnati. They did come on strong towards the end of the season when they almost pulled the upset over Notre Dame, but I'm not quite sold on they can hang with even a mediocre SEC team.

Ole Miss is 7-1 ATS in Bowl games dating back to 1992 while Pitt is 1-4-1 in their last six. The Panthers have been to this bowl the last two years while Ole Miss fans haven't seen their school play in a bowl game since Jan. 2010. I think it's easy to tell which team will be more motivated to win the game, and which fan base will be out in full force on Saturday.

4* Total No Brainer on Texas A&M/Oklahoma OVER 71.5

These are two high powered offenses that average 44.7 ppg (A&M) and 40.2 ppg (Oklahoma). Neither defense is bad, but they aren't exactly built to stop superior teams either.

The Aggies put up 29 or more points against every team except LSU & Florida and those two teams were some of the best defenses in the country. Oklahoma allowed 48 and 49 to West Virginia and Oklahoma State, so I think the Aggies will have no troubles finding the end zone here tonight.

Oklahoma has been an offensive juggernaut this year too, putting up 35 or more points in 7 of their last 9 games. The only two times they failed to reach that mark was against defensive teams in Notre Dame and TCU.

A great 28-3 system the last five years applies to the OVER in this situation that says when the total is 70 or higher and both teams are out gaining opponents by 100+ yards per game, take the OVER in the 2nd half of the season if the team has out gained opponents by 475 or more total yards over their last three games. Both teams fit the situation and that makes this a really good play on the OVER.

4* Main Event on Oregon -8.5

Both of these teams have had great seasons and could have been playing for a national championship if both hadn't lost back on 11/17. I do like how Oregon finished the season a little more though.

The Ducks have covered six of their last seven, with the only non-cover being the loss to Stanford. Oregon beat a pretty good Oregon State team in their finale by 24 points, and has scored 42 points or more in every game except one (again, the loss to Stanford). The reason I think Oregon had trouble against the Cardinal was the run defense they faced. However, they won't face that problem today against the Wildcats.

Kansas State allowed four of their last five teams to score 24 or more against them, and Baylor put up 52. The Wildcats are built to play with teams like Baylor, and Oregon fits into that mold. The Ducks are averaging a whopping 6.1 yards per rush on 53 attempts per game, and when they do throw they complete 68.2% of their passes. A lot of their scores would have been even bigger blowouts if they played their starters the entire game, which I feel is one of the reasons they are even better than people think.

3* Vegas Insider on Florida/Louisville UNDER 45.5

Two teams that control the clock and eat up a lot of time face off here Wednesday night, so I like the UNDER as the pace will be fairly slow.

Louisville is averaging 32:40 time of possession on the year and is gaining 22.8 first downs per game. They do this by completing a lot of short passes and rarely go for the big strike. They are going to have trouble moving the ball that easily against a Gator defense that only allows a 51% completion rate and opponents to gain 3.1 yards per rush on the ground.

Florida on the other hand is averaging over 33:07 for a time of possession and does so with a steady dose of the running game. I expect them to move the ball on the ground easily today as they average 4.6 yards per rush against a Louisville defense that has allowed a weaker schedule to gain 4.3 yards per rush against them.

Louisville has struggled to score their last three games, putting up 26,20, and 20 against Syracuse, UConn, and Rutgers. Florida on the other hand has allowed only one team to score more than 20 against them this year, and that was in the last game against the Seminoles. The Gators put up 37 in that one, but that was after a four game stretch in which they scored 9 against Georgia, 14 against Missouri, 27 against Lafayette, and only 23 against Jacksonville State.

4* Main Event Major on Stanford -6.5

I think the Cardinal are a very under-rated team and should take care of the Wisconsin Badgers in the Rose Bowl. This team has won seven straight games since losing to Notre Dame in overtime back on 10/13. Their only other loss on the season came against Washington in a Thursday night game, 13-17.

The main reason for Stanford's success? Suffocating defense, specifically against the run. The Cardinal allowed 8 teams to gain less than 90 yards on the ground against them, including holding five teams to 27 yards or less. That isn't a typo. USC was one of them and all five tried to run more than 20 times.

Wisconsin only throws 21 times per game, so if they are going to move the ball it's going to have to be via the ground game. Sure they have some impressive numbers on the year, but that is largely due to inflated games against Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota, and the Big Ten title game against Nebraska. Against Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Nebraska the first time, and Oregon State the Badgers really struggled. It's no surprise those are the team's five losses on the year.

Barry Alvarez was a great coach for Wisconsin before retiring in 2005 to become the school's athletic director, but I'm not sure how good of a job he can do stepping in to prepare this team for a bowl game. It's a great story, but not the most ideal situation in practice.

Stanford wins this game by a touchdown or more.

3* Heavy Hitter on South Carolina -5

I'm not impressed with the Michigan Wolverines and think South Carolina wins this game easily today. The Gamecocks faced a monster schedule in the SEC and lost only at LSU and at Florida. The Gator loss looked worse than it was because they were done in by four turnovers, but before those two road defeats put tighter a signature win at home against Georgia 35-7.

Michigan on the other hand played a weak Big Ten slate and looked ugly whenever they stepped up in the level of competition. Against Ohio State, Nebraska, Notre Dame, and Alabama this offense was ugly. They gained 69 yards on the ground against the Tide, put up six points against Notre Dame, 9 against Nebraska, and managed only 279 total yards v. the Buckeyes.

South Carolina has the speed to stop the Michigan rushing attack, but the Wolverines do not have a QB capable of moving the chains through the air. The Gamecocks allowed teams gaining 4.2 yards per game on the ground to only 3.1 yards per game. They shut down Michigan and take care of business here today.

The SEC is 22-14 (61.1%) ATS in January bowl games dating back to the 2006 season and 34-28 (55%) all time when taking on the Big Ten. The Gamecocks have been a money making 8-1 ATS after a straight up win this season, their only loss against Wofford as 30-point favorites, not exactly a game they got up for.

3* Double Digit Blood Bath on Georgia -8.5

The Bulldogs showed they were the real deal in their loss to Alabama, taking the Tide to the wire and just missing out on a chance to play for the national title.

Nebraska on the other hand has won 10 games with smoke and mirrors. Time and time again they took teams down to the wire, winning half of their games by 9 points or less. The other wins were against Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Idaho State, Minnesota, and Michigan without Denard Robinson. This team was exposed in the Big Ten title game when Wisconsin put up 70 points on them by rushing for 539 yards on the ground. What happens when they face a Georgia team that is running for 4.9 yards per carry?

Nebraska is a one-dimensional offense that can only move the ball on the ground, however Georgia has enough speed and talent on the defensive side of the ball to shut down Big Red. Florida, Ole Miss, and Auburn only managed 81, 46, and 57 yards on the ground against the Bulldogs.

Georgia is 16-6 ATS away from home against teams gaining more than 200 yards per game since 1992 and 23-10 ATS on the road in non-conference games. The SEC is 22-14 (61.1%) ATS in January bowl games dating back to the 2006 season and 34-28 (55%) all time when taking on the Big Ten.

5* Total No Brainer on Michigan/South Carolina UNDER 47.5

Two solid defenses here with rough areas on offense. Michigan is only allowing 18.7 ppg on the year against teams that score 26.5 ppg, while South Carolina is giving up 17.4 ppg against teams that average 28.

Both of these offenses have some question marks that make me think points will be at a premium. The Wolverines are run heavy and have trouble moving the ball through the air. That is going to make for some tough sledding against a South Carolina team that is giving up 3.1 yards per rush.

South Carolina has not ran the ball effectively since losing Marcus Lattimore and that could spell some trouble here. Michigan only allowed opposing passers to move the ball 154 yards per game through the air. In fact, no team has thrown for more than 200 yards against them all season!

The Wolverines put up 14, 6, and 9 points against Alabama, Notre Dame, and Nebraska. They did manage 21 against Ohio State, but this Gamecock defense is better than the Buckeyes and is more on par with the Tide and Irish. Don't expect either team to put up a lot of points today, this total is a NO BRAINER!

3* Total Mistake on Northwestern/Mississippi State UNDER 52

I think we have two under-rated defenses playing on New Year's Day, so I really like the UNDER here in the Gator Bowl.

Northwestern only allowed 22.7 ppg this year to teams that were scoring 24 and they did it by allowing only 3.6 yards per carry and 6.7 yards per pass attempt. The Bulldogs were no slouches themselves. Against teams that put up 27.1 ppg on average they gave up only 22.4.

Another thing I like about both of these teams is they allowed a lot of first downs, which sustained clock eating drives for their competition. Northwestern allowed 21.4 first downs per game and Mississippi State 21.6 against competition that moved the chains 19.6 and 20.8 times per game respectively.

Neither one of these teams have played since November 24th so there should be plenty of offensive rust to work out at the beginning of the game. I think all of this adds up to an easy under for us to start New Year's Day.

5* CFB No Brainer on Tulsa +1

I like the Golden Hurricanes to get some revenge here against Iowa State, a team that beat them in Ames way back in the first week of the season. Tulsa beat a good Central Florida team twice to end the year to win the Conference USA championship and pass the 10 win barrier.

This offense is explosive, scoring 35 ppg and ranking 25th in the nation with 460 yards per game. Iowa State is just 4-13 ATS since 1992 when facing teams gaining 230+ rushing yards on the ground, losin gby an average score of 16.4 to 45.2. Tulsa is also 7-0 ATS away from home when facing teams allowing a completion rate of 58% or more the last three seasons.

The Cyclones allowed 188 or more yards on the ground in each of their last four games, and allowed three teams to throw for more than 405 this year. The last four games are significant because that is when they lost star linebacker Jake Knott, and his loss was definitely felt on that side of the ball.

Tulsa straight steamrolled after losing at Arkansas on 11/3 with their only loss coming at SMU by 8 after turning the ball over three times. I like them to get their revenge against the Cyclones here today.

3* Vegas Insider on Georgia Tech +7.5

USC started out on everyone's national championship radar and yet here they are playing a below .500 team on New Year's Eve in the Sun Bowl. If you like motivational factors and looking for the team that "wants to be here" then USC has to be on your list as a team that could be a potential dud.

With good offensive teams like these two you normally have to worry about rust after a long layoff, but in Georgia Tech's case that's not a problem. When you run 57 times a game for 5.5 yards per rush, timing isn't quite as important as when you throw the ball as much as the Trojans do. Add in the fact that Matt Barkley is out for this game and a redshirt freshman in Max Wittek is starting and it only compounds the problem.

A lot gets made out of teams getting enough time to prepare for the Yellow Jackets one-dimensional attack and how that makes it easy to stop. Well I did some checking and teams with 13 days of rest or more are just 29-43 (40.3%) against the Yellow Jackets. I think that blows that theory out of the water.

Six win teams taking on seven win teams in bowl games are 32-23 (58.2%) going back to 1980, so don't be too throw off by the lopsided records here. There is plenty of value today with the Yellow Jackets so take the big number.

3* Bailout Blowout on Michigan State +2.5

TCU is a subpar offensive team, and when Michigan State has faced subpar offenses this year they have completely shut them down, especially on the ground. This team held seven of their opponents to under 72 yards rushing this year and only allowed 300+ yards throughout the air only two teams eclipsed the 180 yard barrier.

TCU on the other hand has a good defense but has shown some vulnerabilities. Four teams threw for more than 300 yards and two more had around 250. Offensively they have struggled to move the ball in the passing game and you simply can't bring a one dimensional attack at this Spartan defense or you are going to have trouble.

I think this is a low scoring game, but the Spartans will get just enough points on the board to beat TCU.

3* Late Night Bailout on Michigan State UNDER 40.5

Both of these offenses are going to struggle against two quality defenses. First you have TCU who is allowing just 3.3 yards per game on the ground and 6.7 yards per attempt through the air. You have to also like how the Spartans play defense giving up just 3.3 yards per rush and 5.3 yards per pass.

Neither offense is going to have you worried either. TCU is a running team while Michigan State likes to throw it a little more, but neither has been necessarily effective at what they prefer to do. The Horned Frogs are only averaging 3.9 yards per rush while Michigan State threw for 6 yards per attempt.

5* Pre-New Year's Bowl Total of the Year on Syracuse OVER 71.5

Great situation here where you have a pass heavy team in West Virginia going against a terrible pass defense in Syracuse. The Mountaineers are completing 70.5% of their passes on the season (8.4% higher than their opponents give up) against the Orange giving up 63.1% passing (4.8% higher than their opponents average). On the other side you have Syracuse throwing 37 times a game and completing 62.9% of their passes against defenses allowing just 59.1% taking on a Mountaineers defense that gave up 64.6% passing and 9.6 yards per attempt.

A great system backs our play today on the OVER that says to take the OVER when the total is 70+ points and you have two teams averaging more than 440 yards per game the last third of the season and they have gained 450+ total yards in their last 3 games. This system is 38-9 (81%) over the last 10 years going over by an average of 8 ppg.

Snow is in the forecast which has made this total drop by a few points, but when teams throw in snowy conditions it makes things very difficult on the opposing defenses. Cornerbacks have more trouble staying with receivers in slippery conditions and I think it gives us an ever bigger advantage today. This is my Pre-New Year's Bowl Total of the Year.

3* Meineke Car Care Bowl SMASH on Minnesota +13
The Red Raiders have suffered coaching losses that will affect both sides of the football. First off, head coach Tommy Tuberville has left for Cincinnati.

Tuberville helped the Texas Tech defense make major strides. After finishing tied for 114th in the nation in total defense (485.6 yards) in 2011, the Red Raiders finished 39th (367.3) in 2012. They were the second-best defensive team in the Big 12 this season.

Despite the improvement, the Red Raiders still lost four of their last five games as they weren

4* Belk Bowl SMASH on Duke +7.5
The Duke defense leaves plenty to be desired, but Cincinnati hasn

5* Military Bowl *BEST BET* on Bowling Green +7.5
Bowling Green weathered the storm after a 1-3 start and won seven of its final eight regular-season games both straight up and against the spread. And it won these games with defense. It held seven of these opponents to 14 points or less and five of them to 10 points or less.

It is significant that the Falcons defeated Buffalo 21-7 in their regular-season finale. That

4* Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl *BEST BET* on Western Kentucky -5
The Hilltoppers have been one of the best bets in college football the last couple seasons while the Chippewas have been one of the worst.

Western Kentucky is 18-6 against the spread dating back to the beginning of last season while Central Michigan is just 6-18 against the spread during this stretch. The Chippewas haven

3* Hawaii Bowl SMASH on Fresno State -12
The Bulldogs enter the postseason on some kind of roll. They have won each of their last five games and these wins have come by a whopping 25.8 points per game on average.

Fresno State has been an unbelievable investment this season. It is 11-1 against the spread in all games, including a perfect 9-0 against the number when listed as the favorite. It has won these nine by an average score of 46.9 to 19.8.

The Bulldogs have been a better investment than SMU when playing away from home. They are 5-1 against the spread outside Fresno this season while the Mustangs are just 1-4 against the number in games away from home.

SMU upset Tulsa in its regular-season finale to become bowl eligible, but it is on a 3-12 against the spread slide in road/neutral field games following an upset win. They are 0-7 against the spread in the aforementioned situation if they are checking in off an upset win over a conference opponent as an underdog of six points or more.

Fresno State is the superior team on both sides of the football, and this claim is backed up by statistical evidence.

The Bulldogs rank 12th in the nation in scoring with 40.2 points per game while the Mustangs rank 60th with 29.5 points per game. The Bulldogs rank 14th in total offense with 489.2 yards per game while SMU ranks 95th with 366.2 yards per contest.

Fresno State ranks 19th in the country in total defense with 335.8 yards allowed per game while SMU ranks 66th with 400.2 yards allowed per game. The Bulldogs rank 27th in scoring defense with 22.2 points allowed per contest while the Mustangs rank 57th with 27.0 points allowed per game.

It is also worth noting that Fresno State has won the last five meetings in the series with these five wins coming by an average of 21.2 points.

3* Las Vegas Bowl SMASH on Boise State -5.5
The Broncos are one of the top defensive teams in the country. They rank sixth in scoring defense with 14.9 points allowed per game and ninth in total defense with 304.7 yards allowed per contest.

The Boise State stop unit should find success against a Washington offense that has struggled throughout the season. The Huskies rank 90th in scoring with 23.8 points per game and 101th in total offense with 347.4 yards per game.

The Broncos have been a terrific investment against quality competition over the years. In fact, they are on a 38-18 against the spread run when matched up against a team that has a winning record.

Boise State has also cleaned up away from the blue turf in non-conference action. Consider that it is on an awesome 6-0 against the spread run when playing away from home against non-conference foes. It has won by an average score of 40.2 to 16.3 in these contests.

The Broncos have fared well against the Pac-12 of late. They are on a 6-2-1 against the spread run in their last nine games against the conference. You might recall that they crushed Arizona State 56-24 in last season

3* Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl "Total" Dominator on Ball State/UCF Under 62
Ball State has finished under the total in 3 of its last four and five of its last seven, and I expect its unders runs to continue as it goes up against a sound UCF defense. The Knights ranks 29th in the country in scoring defense with 22.5 points allowed per game and 46th in total defense with 380.2 yards allowed per game. They have typically had success slowing down MAC opponents and have played to the under in 7 of their last 9 against MAC foes as a result. In fact, the Knights are on a terrific 25-10-1 unders run in non-conference action.

Ball State will lose some of the momentum it gained in the second half of the season because of the long layoff between its last regular season game and this contest. The long prep time should benefit both teams, especially the defenses. Both coaching staffs have had a lot of time to go through a lot of game film. These defenses will be prepared.

It is also to our benefit that both teams like to run the football as that keeps the clock moving.

Teams headed up by George O'Leary are 9-1 to the under all-time following two straight games in which 60 total points or more were scored. We've seen an average of just 55.7 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

5* Poinsettia Bowl *BEST BET* on BYU -3
The Cougars are one of the top defensive teams in the country. They rank third in the nation in total defense with 266.3 yards allowed per game and fifth in scoring defense with 14.7 points allowed per contest.

BYU has especially been good against the run, ranking second nationally with 84.2 yards allowed per game. This could spell bad news for a San Diego State team that is very reliant on its running game.

The Aztecs are on a 2-10 against the spread slide versus excellent rushing defenses that give up 90.0 rushing yards or less per game. The Aztecs have lost these contests by an average score of 33.4 to 12.1.

It is also worth noting that BYU is 7-0 against the spread all-time under coach Mendenhall in road/neutral field contests when matched up against a good rushing team that averages 4.75 rushing yards or more per carry.

San Diego State is also on a 2-10 against the spread skid in home games versus good defensive teams that give up 17.0 points or less per game. It is on a 2-12 against the spread slide at home versus good defensive teams that allow 310.0 yards or fewer per game.

BYU has had the upper hand in the series. It has won each of the past five meetings by an average of 18.6 points. It has also won nine of the past 10 meetings. Bet the Cougars.

3* Potato Bowl SMASH on Toledo +10.5

This is a big game for Toledo as they are seeking their first 10 win season in over a decade so you know that barrier provided plenty of motivation for the team to keep working hard since their last game on 11/20.

You also have to like the fact that the Rockets are a PERFECT 5-0 ATS this season in the role of the underdog. That included outright wins at Wyoming, at Western Michigan, and at home against Cincinnati. What they didn't do well was put teams away when favored by double digits, not a concern for us today.

I see both offenses having a little bit of trouble getting going after the long layoff, and in situations where you like the under it's hard not to take double digits. Even if they get down early, this offense has proven they can put up points so I'm confident they can mount a comeback if they do fall into an early hole.

Utah State was a good team this year and I give them a lot of respect for their run through the WAC, but Toledo is a decent team as well so I'll take the double digits.

5* Potato Bowl "Total" Dominator on Toledo/Utah State Under 58.5

Lot of reasons to like the UNDER in today's game. The first is the long layoff for both of these teams. Toledo hasn't played since 11/20 while Utah State has been resting since 11/24. What this usually means is the defense gets healthy and back to full strength while the offense loses the rhythm they had going during the season. That is why I love picking my spots during bowl season to go UNDER the total.

Toledo has gone UNDER the total in five straight games, while Utah State has gone UNDER in SIX STRAIGHT outside of the WAC.

The Aggies have allowed 17 points or less in four of their last five games.

The public sees two teams that are scoring 30+ points per game and will start licking their chops thinking the OVER is the play. It won't. Both of these teams run the ball more often than they throw it which will help eat up the clock and neither passing game will be as sharp as it was during the regular season.

4* NCAAF *BEST BET* on Navy -7
The Midshipmen have recovered from a slow start to win six of their last seven games. Five of these wins have come by at least seven points.

The Black Knights have struggled throughout the season because they are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They rank 112th in scoring defense with 37.0 points allowed per game and 91st in total defense with 439.2 yards allowed per game. Eight of their nine defeats have come by at least eight points. It is also worth noting that Army is 1-5 against the spread in its last six games.

Navy has had Army

4* Big Ten Championship *BEST BET* on Wisconsin +3
The Badgers may have finished third in their division behind Ohio State and Penn State after losing three of their last four games in overtime, but they won

4* SEC Championship *BEST BET* on Georgia +7.5
Georgia has been on a mission to get back to the SEC title game after it was blown out 42-10 by LSU in last year

5* NCAAF Game of the Week on Oklahoma -6
The Sooners will be lacking no incentive when they take the field Saturday as they can still win the Big 12 outright and play in a BCS bowl with a win over TCU and a Kansas State loss to Texas Saturday night. Oklahoma is the superior team, and I believe it takes care of business here to give itself a chance at the outright title.

Oklahoma's poor defensive performances in its last two games should really serve as a wake-up call here. Consider that the Sooners are on an 8-0 ATS run in road games after allowing 24 points or more in the first half of their last game. They have won these eight by an average score of 31.9 to 14.5. They are also on a 7-0 ATS run in road games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. They have won these seven by an average score of 40.6 to 26.0.

The Horned Frogs enter off a big win over Texas, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a victory. They are also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team that has a winning record on the road. The Sooners are a perfect 5-0 when playing away from home this season and have won these by an average of 19.2 points.

TCU has not covered the spread in consecutive games this season and is just 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive covers over the last 2 seasons. Take Oklahoma.

3* Pac-12 Championship SMASH on UCLA +9
The Bruins have been no pushover on the road where they are 4-1 this season. It is also significant that they enter off a double-digit loss at home to Stanford. That

3* MAC Championship SMASH on Northern Illinois -6.5
Nerves don

3* Big East Game of the Week on Louisville +3
The Cardinals were stunned at home by Connecticut Saturday, but they still have plenty to play for as well. They can earn a share of the conference championship with a win.

Louisville has been terrific in bounce back spot recently. In fact, it is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games following a defeat. It is also 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Strong in road games following one or more consecutive losses. It is 6-0 ATS all-time under Strong in road games following losses in two of its last three games.

The Cardinals have also been a terrific investment when catching points on the road. They are 8-1 against the spread as a road underdog under Strong, including a perfect 6-0 against the spread in their last six in the role.

It is significant that Louisville enters off an upset loss at home because it has covered the number in nine of its last 10 road contests following an upset defeat at home. It has won by an average score of 27.0 to 17.3 in these games.

The Cardinals are even 12-4 against the spread in their last 16 road games versus a team that has a winning record at home.

Louisville is also 2-0 SU and ATS versus Rutgers the past two seasons. It won 40-13 the last time it visited Rutgers Nov. 26, 2010. Take the Cardinals.

3* Pac-12 SMASH on Oregon -9
The Ducks suffered their first loss of the season last week. They were shocked at home with a 17-14 overtime loss to Stanford in a game they were favored by 18.5 points in. That loss actually sets up a positive situation for them this week as they are on a 19-6 against the spread run in games following a home loss. They have won by an average of 10.1 points in this situation.

The road has been kind to Oregon lately. It is 7-0 straight up and against the spread in true road games the last two seasons. It has won this season

4* SEC Game of the Week on Tennessee -13
It has been a very disappointing season for Tennessee, but it is not about to roll over for lowly Kentucky on senior day.

Kentucky has been a terrible investment in the underdog role. It is 1-7 ATS as an underdog this season and 2-10 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. It is also 0-8 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons and has lost these games by an average score of 40.0 to 10.6.

The Vols have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three but are on a 12-3 ATS run in games following 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread.

In addition, Tennessee has owned Kentucky. The Vols are 19-1 SU and 14-6 ATS in all meetings over the last two decades, including 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS during this span at home.

4* Big Ten Game of the Week on Ohio State -3
Because of NCAA sanctions, there will be no Big Ten championship game or bowl game for Ohio State. The Buckeyes will be treating this game as their bowl game.

As if facing hated rival Michigan isn't enough motivation, the Buckeyes will be further fueled by the opportunity to finish the season undefeated.

Last season's 40-34 loss in Ann Arbor can't be sitting well. That defeat figures to provide plenty of motivation for a team that had won its previous seven against the Wolverines. The Buckeyes have won their last five at home in the series. The Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Ohio State.

Ohio State pulled off an upset at Wisconsin last week, but don't expect the Buckeyes to suffer a letdown here. Consider that teams headed up by coach Urban Meyer are 10-0 ATS all-time following an upset win. They have won by an average score of 38.0 to 16.6 in this situation.

3* Big East SMASH on Rutgers +2
The Scarlet Knights will be lacking no motivation as they can lock up at least a share of the Big East title with a win. They are 5-0 straight up and against the spread in conference play and have averaged 22.0 points in these games while holding the opposition to only 8.8.

Defense is the strength of the Scarlet Knights. They rank fourth in the country in scoring defense with 12.4 points allowed per game and 14th in total defense with 312.6 yards allowed per contest.

Rutgers has especially been good against the run. It ranks 12th in the nation with 108.0 rushing yards allowed per game and held Cincinnati to only 90 rushing yards in last week

5* NCAAF Game of the Week on Louisville -11.5
Motivated by a 45-26 loss at Syracuse in its last game, and having had a bye week to gear up, Louisville will be hungry and prepared when it takes the field Saturday.

The Cardinals are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games following a loss, 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games following a bye week.

Connecticut is also coming off a bye week. However, it is 1-3-1 against the spread in its last five games following a bye.

The Cardinals have been dominant at home where they are 6-0 with an average winning margin of 14.0 points. The Huskies, on the other hand, have been brutal on the road. They have lost their last four road games and are just 3-11 against the spread in road games the last three seasons.

It is also worth noting that UConn is 0-7 against the spread all-time under coach Pasqualoni when listed as a road underdog. It has lost these games by an average of 14.0 points.

The Huskies ended a four-game losing streak with a win over Pittsburgh in their last game, but they are 0-7 against the spread all-time under Pasqualoni after one or more consecutive wins.

The Louisville offense has been solid all season. The same can

3* Pac-12 SMASH on Washington -13
Washington is rolling. It has won four in a row, and I expect it to keep right on rolling this afternoon.

The Huskies have won three in a row in the series by an average of 18.0 points. They won last season's meeting by 17.

The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus a team with a losing record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. It is also important to note that they racked up 476 yards of offense last week. That's because they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Cougars, who gave up 561 yards last week, are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

The Huskies are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Washington State.

The Huskies have all the momentum on their side while the Cougars enter off arguably their worst performance of the season. Washington will be the more confident side today. Lay the points.

5* Big 12 Game of the Week on West Virginia -1.5
Iowa State became bowl eligible last week with a win against Kansas so it does not have the same sense of urgency as West Virginia, who needs to win today to become bowl eligible.

The Mountaineers have faltered since their 5-0 start, losing each of their last five games. However, they should enter this game with a ton of confidence following a very positive performance against Oklahoma last week. They played the Sooners to a one-point game. Consider that Iowa State lost to Oklahoma by 15.

I believe it is also significant that West Virginia defeated Texas on the road. ISU lost 33-7 when it visited Austin.

West Virginia has one of the most explosive offenses in the country. It averages 510 yards and 40.9 points per game. I just don't see an Iowa State offense that averages 370.0 yards and 25.3 points per game being able to keep pace.

The Cyclones have relied on their defense to create turnovers to help the offense out, but WVU doesn't turn it over often. They haven't had more than 2 turnovers in any game this season. Geno Smith only has 5 interceptions. I expect a huge game from him against an Iowa State pass defense that is among the worst in the nation.

The Cyclones are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win.

3* MAC SMASH on Central Michigan -10.5
UMass is one of the worst teams in all of college football, and it catches Central Michigan at a bad time. The Chippewas are playing their best football of the season and can become bowl eligible with a win.

The Minutemen have been anemic offensively. They ranks 124th in the nation in scoring with 11.9 points per game and 123rd in total offense with 274.7 yards per game. They have been horrible on defense as well.

UMass ranks 119th in the country in scoring defense with 40.0 points allowed per game and 110th in total defense with 471.1 yards allowed per contest.

eight of UMass' 10 losses have come by at least 11 points. Three of CMU's five wins have come by at least 11 points. I'll lay the points with the superior team in this highly motivated spot.

3* NCAAF Thanksgiving SMASH on Texas -7
The Longhorns have rebounded from losses to West Virginia and Oklahoma to win each of their last four games. They covered the spread in their last two victories with a nine-point win at Texas Tech and a 26-point win over Iowa State.

It has been a good time to back Texas when it is at home and has momentum on its side following multiple wins against conference opponents. In fact, it is on a 13-4 against the spread run in home games when checking in with three consecutive victories over conference foes. It has won by an average score of 43.8 to 17.2 in this situation.

TCU

3* NCAAF SMASH on Toledo -19
Akron has lost eight consecutive games and is 3-5 against the spread in these contests. It is 0-7 in conference play and is just 2-5 against the number in these contests. The Zips are 3-11 against the spread versus conference foes dating back to last season and have lost these matchups by an average of 21.0 points. The Zips are also winless (0-5) on the road this season.

Toledo has lost its last two but those came against Ball State and Northern Illinois