5* Ohio State/Oregon National Championship No Limit Top Play on Ohio State +

The Buckeyes should not be a touchdown underdog to Oregon in this one. Ohio State knocked off what most believed was the best team in the country in Alabama, while the Ducks beat what many believed to be an overrated Florida State team. I think this line should be a lost closer to Oregon -3 than -7, which gives us tremendous value!

When you look at the numbers these two teams have put up over the course of the season, it shows there's just not enough here for either team to be favored by more than a field goal. Oregon averaged 47.2 ppg, while allowing just 22.3 ppg. Ohio State averaged 45.0 ppg, while giving up only 22.1.

While defensively these two teams were almost identical in terms of points allowed, Ohio State finished the year ranked 17th in total defense (333.6 ypg), while Oregon was a mere 82nd (421.7 ypg). I know they held Florida State to just 20 points, but that was a result of turnovers and the Seminoles inefficiencies in the redzone. Florida State put up 528 yards with 28 first downs, averaging an impressive 7.3 yards/play. After watching Ohio State put up 45 points and 537 yards of total offense against Alabama, I don’t think there’s any doubt the Buckeyes will have similar success yardage wise as Florida State here against Oregon.

One of the reasons that this line has been inflated, is the fact that Ohio State is starting 3rd string quarterback Cardale Jones. However, after watching Jones play in the Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin and the playoff semifinals versus the Crimson Tide, there’s clearly not a significant dropoff in production from J.T. Barrett. The books have simply overvalued Oregon due to the fact that they know the public will be all over the Ducks in one of the biggest bet games of the year.

Th reason that I not only think Ohio State will cover the spread, but likely win this game outright, is the advantage they have here in the coaching department. Urban Meyer is right there with Nick Saban as the best college coach in the country. When you give him more than a week to prepare for an opponent, he’s going to have his team prepared for whatever the Ducks throw at them. This is one of the most underrated aspects of these big games that the public doesn’t give as much credit as the should.

Meyer is 21-5 ATS in all games that he’s coached when his team is listed as an underdog and 12-1 ATS in his last 13 games when his team comes into a game off an upset win as an underdog. It’s also worth noting that Ohio State is 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games against excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards/carry and 33-18 ATS in their last 51 versus strong passing teams that average 8 or more yards/pass attempt. These trends combine to form a 74% (89-32) system in favor of the Buckeyes. Take Ohio State!

3* Toledo/Arkansas St GoDaddy Bowl Main Event on Arkansas St +

I wasn't impressed at all with the MAC this year and they have not looked good at all so far in bowl play. Conference champion, Northern Illinois, got embarrassed 23-52 by Marshall, Western Michigan lost 24-38 to Air Force, Central Michigan outscored Western Kentucky 34-7 in the 2nd half of a 48-49 loss and the lone victory came from Bowling Green in a 33-28 win over South Alabama, where they scored the game-winning touchdown (78 yard touchdown pass) with just 1:04 left to play.

Toledo held their inside the conference, but outside of the MAC they were far from impressive. The Rockets lost 24-49 at home to Missouri, 34-58 at Cincinnati and the one that really stands out to me is a 30-37 loss at Iowa State, who finished 2-10 and didn't win a single game inside the Big 12 (0-9). Arkansas State had a 21-14 win over Utah State and lost by 21-points on the road against Miami (FL).

I look for Arkansas State's high-powered offense to have no problem moving the ball against a soft Toledo defense. The Red Wolves averaged 36.1 ppg (21st) with an average of 229.0 ypg on the ground (24th) and 248.2 ypg through the air (51st).

Toledo gave up 29.3 ppg (86th) and were 113th in the country versus the pass (282.4 ypg). While Arkansas State's strength is their running game, junior quarterback Fredi Knighten completed 61.3% of his attempts with 19 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions.

That's not to say the Rockets won't be able to run the ball.Toledo gave up 226 rushing yards to Northern Illinois and are just 7-24 ATS in their last 31 games against strong rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards/carry and have lost these games by an average score of 19.5 to 33.4 (13.9 ppg). That's a 77% system in favor of the Red Wolves. Take Arkansas State!

4* Birmingham Bowl Total Dominator on UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle in today's showdown between Florida and East Carolina. Both teams matchup extremely well with the opposing teams offense and I look for a lot of empty possessions that have this one finishing well below the mark.

Florida comes in with the 7th ranked defense in the country, giving up just 311.0 ypg and have been equally dominant against the run (116.8 ypg, 13th) as they have against the pass (194.2 ypg, 21st). East Carolina hasn't went up against a defense this good all season and we have seen them struggle against less talented units. Keep in mind the Pirates only managed to score 23-points against South Carolina out of the SEC, who had more than their fair share of struggles on the defensive side of the ball. Florida only gave up 3.1 yards/carry and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 53.6% of their attempts for an average completion of just 5.9 yards.

As for the Gators offense, it is almost exclusively dependent on their running game. Florida finished 41st in the country in rushing (189.5 ypg) compared to 103rd in passing (180.7 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the East Carolina defense. The Pirates finished inside the Top 10 in rushing, giving up just 107.1 ypg and allowed just 3.3 ypc. The key here is that with their defense figuring to keep the Pirates in check, Florida is going to continue to pound the rock on the ground and try and wear down this talented East Carolina front. Take the UNDER!

4* Oklahoma St/Washington Cactus Bowl Vegas Insider on Washington -

We are getting some great value here with the Huskies laying less than a touchdown against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is getting too much respect after that huge upset win over Oklahoma in the regular season finale, but that was their only win all season against an FBS opponent that finished the year with more than 4 wins. You also have to factor in how poorly the Sooners players in their bowl game, they clearly weren't motivated down the stretch.

One of things that I like about Washington, is they took care of business against the teams they were suppose to beat. All 5 of the Huskies losses came against ranked opponents in Stanford, Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA and Arizona. In their 4 conference wins they dominated Cal (31-7), Colorado (38-23), Oregon State (37-13) and Washington State (31-13). Washington also had a 44-19 win over Illinois and 45-14 victory against Georgia State in non-conference play.

I know that both of these offenses struggled at times, but I was a lot more impressed with the Huskies stop unit than I was with the Cowboys. Washington only gave up 24.4 ppg, while Oklahoma State yielded 32.0. I just don’t see the Cowboys’ offense being able to keep up with what their defense allows in this one.

Another thing that I like here is that the Huskies figure to be extra motivated in their first bowl game under Peterson. On top of that, Peterson went an impressive 5-2 in bowl games while with Bose State. He’s going to have his team focused and ready for whatever Oklahoma State throws at them and that should be more than enough for Washington to cover this spread. Take Washington!

4* Florida St/Oregon Rose Bowl ATS Main Event on Florida St -

This Florida State team just refuses to lose and should not be catching over a touchdown against the Ducks. This is the moment this Florida State has been waiting for and I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder due to the lack of respect they have got this year, despite going a perfect 13-0. The ACC is not nearly as bad as it's perceived and that's been evident in the bowl games so far.

I know Oregon's Marcus Mariota won the Heisman and rightfully so, but I still think Jameis Winston is the better quarterback and has delivered in these big games consistently. Florida State as a whole has more talent than the Ducks and I look for it show on the field. The Seminoles have speed and athleticism to keep up with Oregon's uptempo attack and I think they are a lot stronger in the trenches.

I also like the matchup here for Florida State's offense. You have an elite talent in Winston at quarterback, going up against a Oregon secondary that was shredded on several occasions this season. The Ducks finished a mere 96th in the country against the pass (259.5 ypg) and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60% of their attempts. The Seminoles on the other hand were a respectable 47th vs the pass (218.2 ypg) and opposing quarterbacks completed only 55.6% of their attempts.

The Seminoles are just too strong on both sides of the ball for the Ducks to turn this into a blowout. Not only do I expect Florida State to cover the 7.5, I think they have an excellent shot at winning this game outright.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing Florida State. Teams who average just 100-140 rushing yards/game against an average run defense that allows 140-190 ypg are 46-19 ATS since 1992 in non-conference matchups at least 8 games into the year with two teams from major conferences. That's a 71% system in favor of the Seminoles. Take Florida State!

5* New Years Day Citrus Bowl Total of the Year on UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle between Minnesota and Missouri leading up to tonight's playoff matchups. Both of these teams have relied heavily on their defenses and offensively they are both focused on running the football.

The Golden Gophers finished 37th in the country in total defense (362.7 ypg). While they were better against the pass than the run, they are strong up front in the trenches and should have no problem keeping Missouri's 100th ranked (361.8 ypg) offense in check. Maty Mauk and the Tigers passing attack ranked just 94th, which is going to force the Tigers to rely almost exclusively on their running game against Minnesota.

Missouri's defense was the reason they won the SEC East. The Tigers finished 22nd in the country overall (344.3 ypg) and were strong against both the run (135.8 ypg, 28th) and the pass (208.5, 37th). The Tigers should have no problem slowing down the Gophers, who are extremely one dimensional. Minnesota finished with the 27th ranked rushing attack (224.6 ypg), compared to a 120th in passing (131.4 ypg).

This is the ideal scenario for the a low scoring game. Two strong defenses against a couple of offenses that are looking to grind out long drives and control the time of possession.

There's a strong system in play backing this as well. UNDER is 53-24 over the last 5 seasons in non-conference games when you have a strong rushing team that is averaging 190-230 ypg, against a team with a strong run defense that is giving up 100-140 ypg. That's a 69% system. Take the UNDER!

5* Orange Bowl ATS Bowl Game of the Month on Mississippi St -

While the Bulldogs had a disappointing finish to their regular season, I'm not expecting that to carry over to their bowl game. Mississippi State has gone an impressive 3-1 in their bowl games under head coach Dan Mullen and have a chance here to set a new school record with their 11th win.

Georgia Tech on the other hand has been one of the worst teams to back in bowl games. The Yellow Jackets are a pathetic 1-5 in bowl games under head coach Paul Johnson and a lot of that has to do with the extra time that opposing teams have prepare for their triple-option attack, which can be difficult to get ready for in the typical 6-days you have between games during the regular season.

On top of that, I think this Georgia Tech is extremely overrated and is going to be outclassed on both sides of the ball against one of the top teams from the SEC. The Yellow Jackets played an extremely easy schedule and are simply getting too much respect for how the finished with back-to-back wins over Clemson, followed by a near upset of Florida State in the ACC Championship Game. They benefited from Clemson losing star quarterback Deshaun Watson in the 1st quarter, got Georgia in a huge letdown spot after Missouri had just cliched the SEC East the day before and what team hasn't played the Seminoles close this year.

The big key here is that Georgia Tech doesn't have the defense to keep Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs offense from piling on the points, while this is a perfect matchup for Mississippi State's defense. The Yellow Jackets are one dimensional offensively with their running game and that plays right into the strength of the Bulldogs 24th ranked run defense, that allowed just 126.5 ypg on the ground compared to their 116th ranked pass defense (285.2 ypg).

Mississippi State is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against a team with a winning record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the month of December and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss. Georgia Tech is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus the SEC and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. These trends combine to form a 82% (27-6) system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State!

4* Music City Bowl Total Dominator on LSU/Notre Dame UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle this afternoon with LSU and Notre Dame and I think we are getting some great value here with this total due to the Fighting Irish's struggles on the defensive side of the ball down the stretch.

The key thing here is that LSU is not a strong offensive team and are extremely one dimensional with the running game. The Tigers finished 28th in the country in rushing (219.5 ypg) compared to a mere 112th in passing (163.9 ypg). While Notre Dame's defense struggled against both the run and the pass, they are better equipped to stop the run and will have an easier time doing so without having to worry too much about the pass. The Irish have also had more than enough time to prepare for this matchup and have got healthier on the defensive side of the ball during their bowl prep.

As for the Notre Dame offense, this is not a good matchup for them at all. The Fighting Irish have relied almost exclusively on their passing attack, which comes in 16th in the country at 293.8 ypg. That plays right into the hands of the LSU defense, which featured one of the best defenses in the nation. The Tigers held opponents to just 162.3 ypg through the air and opposing quarterbacks completed just 50.4%.

It's also important to note that Notre Dame is going to have to run the ball a little more than they would like, as they know they can't afford quick positions that leave their defense out on the field for extended periods. It's also important to note that LSU has a great redzone defense, but struggles to score offensively when in the redzone. Look for a lot of field goals and empty possessions for both teams, which is exactly what we are looking for with a total like this.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 42-12 since 1992 in non-conference games with a total set between 49.5 to 56 points that feature two strong teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards/play) at least 8 games into the year. That's a 78% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* Texas Bowl Total Annihilator on Arkansas/Texas UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown tonight when the Longhorns take on the Razorbacks. Both teams are going to come out extremely motivated. This is almost going to feel like a home game for Texas and they will be looking to give first year head coach Charlie Strong his first bowl win. Arkansas on the other hand will be playing in their first bowl game since 2011 and first under 2nd year head coach Bret Bielema.

Not only are both these teams going to be fired up for this game, they each have two of the better defenses in the country. Texas finished the year ranked 24th in total defense (348.4 ypg), while Arkansas was 21st (365.4 ypg). These two stop units should have an even bigger edge here with more than a month to prepare for the opposing offenses.

Another key factor to why I like the UNDER in this matchup, is the fact that both of these teams heavily rely on their running games. Texas got their ground game going late in the year and averaged 42.3 rush attempts over their last 4 games, Arkansas averaged 42 rush attempts to just 28 pass attempts over the entire season. Look for the clock to be running constantly in this one and most importantly both offenses to struggle to sustain drives and finish off with touchdowns.

UNDER is 9-2 in the Longhorns last 11 games against a strong offensive team that is averaging 31+ points/game and 9-2 in their last 11 games when listed as an underdog. UNDER is also 7-0 in the Razorbacks last 7 when listed as a neutral field favorite and 10-2 in their last 12 bowl games overall. These trends combine to form a 86% (25-4) system backing this one to finish below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* Russell Athletic Bowl ATS No Brainer on Clemson +

Even though the Tigers are going to be without star freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson, I think we are catching some great value here with Clemson. Backup quarterback Cole Stoudt has been hit or miss this season, but I look for offensive coordinator Chad Morris to have Stoudt well prepared for this Oklahoma defense that finished 110th against the pass (272.7 ypg).

I'm also not expecting the Sooners to be all that motivated for this game. After defeating Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last year, Oklahoma came in with lofty expectations and this is clearly not the bowl game they anticipated playing in.

The other big key here is that I believe the Tigers have the talent defensively to make life miserable for this Oklahoma offense. The Sooners are dependent on their running game, which is evident by the fact that they finished 9th in the country in rushing (268.6 ypg) compared to 80th in passing (211.9 ypg). Clemson comes in with one of the best front sevens in the country and will be the best defense that Oklahoma has seen all year. The Tigers finished 5th against the run (97.7 ypg) and 3rd against the pass (161.9 ypg).

Adding to the advantage the Tigers will have defensively, is that defensive coordinator Brent Venables is very familiar with what what the Sooners likes to do offensively. Venables served as an assistant for 13 years under Stoops at Oklahoma before coming to Clemson. I look for Clemson to put the Sooners in a lot of third-and-long situations, that I believe are going to lead to some turnovers and most importantly allow the Tigers to win the field position battle.

Oklahoma is just 27-45 in their last 72 games against teams with a defense that is allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/attempt. Clemson on the other hand is 22-9 in their last 31 road games after putting up 475 or more total yards in their last game and 28-14 ATS in their last 42 games when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

Adding to all this is a strong system suggesting a fade of the Sooners. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who are coming off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival, who have a winning record on the season and are playing an opponent with a winning record are just 20-50 ATS since 1992. That's a 71% long-term system in favor of the Tigers. Take Clemson!

3* Penn State/BC Pinstripe Bowl ATS Annihilator on Penn State +

There might not be a more motivated team going into their bowl game than Penn State. The Nittany Lions didn't even think they were going to be eligible to make a bowl, but the Sandusky sanctions were removed and Penn State will be headed back to a bowl game for the first time since 2011.

This game has to mean the world to the seniors who stuck with the program when everything went down and I expect not only them to play their hearts out but the rest of the team to lay everything on the line for the upperclassmen. Not to take anything away from a talented Boston College team, but I just don't see them being able to match the intensity and determination of the Nittany Lions.

I also think this is a decent matchup for Penn State. Boston College's offense is one-dimensional with their focus solely on running the football. That plays right into the hands of the Nittany Lions defense, which had the nations best run defense. Penn State allowed a mere 84.8 ypg on the ground, with opponents averaging just 2.6 yards/carry.

It's the opposite for Penn State when they have the ball. The Nittany Lions rely heavily on the playmaking ability of sophomore quarterback Christian Hackenberg. While BC was strong against both the run and the pass, they were a lot more vulnerable against the pass (218.0 ypg, 48th) than the run (95.5 ypg, 4th). With a big advantage on defense and a slim edge offensively, I look for the Nittany Lions to make enough plays to win this game outright.

Boston College is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in the month of December. Penn State on the other hand is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and head coach James Franklin went 2-1 ATS in bowl games with Vanderbilt. These trends combine to form a 88% (23-3) system in favor of the Nittany Lions. Take Penn State!

4* Miami/S Carolina Independence Bowl No Brainer on Miami -

I think we are catching some great value here with the Hurricanes laying just a field goal against the Gamecocks. Miami hasn't won a bowl game since 2006 and I look for the Hurricanes to come out extremely motivated to put an end to their bowl drought. South Carolina on the other hand did not expect to be playing in this caliber a bowl and I look for them to struggle to match the intensity of Miami.

One of the big reasons I think we are getting such great value with Miami is due to how they closed out the year with 3 straight losses. However, I wasn't all that surprised with how they finished the season. The Hurricanes put everything they had into beating Florida State and ended up blowing a big lead in a 26-30 loss. They came out flat the following week against Virginia in a huge letdown spot and then didn't show up against Pitt with nothing to play for in the finale.

The big key here is that Miami will be motivated to get that elusive bowl win and they matchup extremely well with the Gamecocks on both sides of the ball. The Hurricanes are at their best when Duke Johnson and the running game is in in full force. That certainly figures to be the case, as South Carolina comes in ranked 106th in the country against the run (214.4 ypg) and are allowing 5.4 yards/carry.

Defensively Miami has made some tremendous strides this year. The Hurricanes finished 14th in the country in total defense (327.6 ypg), which is nearly a 100-yard improvement from the 426 ypg they allowed in 2013. Their strength was a secondary that held opposing teams to just 183.7 ypg through the air. South Carolina finished just 58th in rushing (169.4 ypg) compared to 21st in passing (218.4 ypg).

All signs here point to a Miami win and I'm expecting the Hurricanes to not only cover the 3-point spread, but turn this into a blowout early. Take Miami!

5* Pre-New Years Bowl Game of the Year on Virginia Tech +

We are getting some exceptional value here with the Hokies catching a field goal against Cincinnati, as I think Virginia Tech should be the team that's favored in this contest. The Hokies were a better team than their 6-6 record would indicate, as they went just 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less. I also look for Virginia Tech to come out extremely motivated to get their first bowl win since 2009.

The Bearcats closed out the year on 7-game winning streak, which has a lot to do with them being favored here, but a closer look at Cincinnati's schedule shows that this team feasted on a bunch of bad teams. What really stands out to me is how they dominated in a losses to Ohio State (28-50), Memphis (14-41) and Miami (34-55).

For me this one comes down to how these two teams matchup. Virginia Tech finished 16th in the country in total defense (331.6 ypg) and were at less than full strength for a lot of the year. Cincinnati's offense is built around their passing game, which plays right into the hands of the Hokies defense, which finished 14th in the country against the pass (186.8 ypg) and were 3rd in sacks.

While the Bearcats offense figures to struggle to move the ball against a well prepared Virginia Tech defense, I look for Virginia Tech's offense to be able to take advantage of a bad Cincinnati defense. The Bearcats finished 99th in the country in total defense (447.8 ypg). I know the Hokies haven't been great offensively, but this is a defense they can exploit both on the ground and through the air. 

There's also some big time trends backing Virginia Tech off their 24-20 regular season finale win over in-state rival Virginia. The Hokies are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games after a win by 6 points or less.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Teams who are an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 yards/carry) against a bad run defense (4.3 to 4.8 yards/carry) at least 8 games into the year after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their last game are 25-4 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 86% system in favor of the Hokies. Take Virginia Tech!

4* Rutgers/UNC Quick Lane Bowl Vegas Insider on North Carolina -

The Tar Heels are showing some great value here as a small favorite against Rutgers in the Quick Lane Bowl. North Carolina really turned around their season in the second half, going 4-2 down the stretch to make up for a disappointing 2-4 start. The key thing to keep in mind with the Tar Heels is all 6 of their losses this season came against bowl teams and they had impressive wins over the likes of Duke, Pittsburgh, Virginia and Georgia Tech.

I think they are getting undervalued here due a 28-point loss to in-state rival NC State in the finale. Rutgers closed out the year with a win at Maryland, but outside of a win at Navy early in the year, the rest of their victories are far from impressive. In fact, those are their only two wins against teams who finished with a winning record. It's also worth noting that the Scarlet Knights were fortunate in a lot of close games against bad teams, as 5 of their 7 wins came by a touchdown or less.

Keep in mind that last year, North Carolina went 5-1 over their last 6 games to become bowl eligible. They loss their regular season finale at home against Duke 25-27 as a 4-point favorite and then came out in their bowl game and rolled over Cincinnati 39-17 as a mere 2-point favorite.

I know there's some concern with the North Carolina defense and the horrible numbers that they put up, but I look for this team to come out looking to make a statement on that side of the ball. Helping matters is the fact that Rutgers isn't a strong offensive team and are just as bad defensively as North Carolina. However, the Tar Heels feature an explosive offense that averages 34.2 ppg and 425 ypg. I look for North Carolina to turn this into a blowout and easily cover this small spread. Take the Tar Heels!

3* NCAAF Bahamas Bowl Main Event on Western Kentucky -

I believe the Hilltoppers are showing some great value here even as a 3.5-point favorite. Western Kentucky has never won a bowl game and it just so happens that their only other bowl was back in 2012 against Central Michigan, which they lost 21-24 as a 6-point favorite. Needless to say the Hilltoppers are going to be motivated.

I also think this Western Kentucky team has a big edge in talent over the Chippewas. Central Michigan gets a lot of respect for a 34-17 win at Northern Illinois, but that's the only real impressive win on the schedule. The Chippewas lost by 37-points at home to Syracuse and 14 on the road to Kansas in non-conference play. It's also worth noting that the MAC has not looked all that great so far in their bowl game. Western Michigan lost by 14-points to Air Force, Northern Illinois (conf champ) was routed by Marshall 23-52 and Bowling Green barely escaped with a 33-28 over South Alabama out of the Sun Belt.

Western Kentucky closed out the season riding a 4-game winning streak, including that 67-66 overtime win at Marshall, which spoiled the Thundering Herd's attempt at a perfect season. The Hilltoppers come in ranked 6th in both scoring (44.0 ppg) and total offense (525.3 ypg) and I just see the Chippewas being able to keep Western Kentucky from scoring at will. On the flip side of this, Central Michigan is not a strong offensive team. They only averaged 25.2 ppg on 380.7 ypg and I look for them to struggle to keep pace with the Hilltoppers.

While Western Kentucky has the 3rd ranked passing attack (365 ypg), they are also capable of running all over teams. The Hilltoppers averaged a respectable 160.3 rushing yards/game with a 4.9 average/carry.  The Chippewas are just 6-18 (25%) ATS in their last 24 games against teams who average 4.75 or more yards/rush and have lost these games by an average of 22.9 to 37.6. Take Western Kentucky!

3* Poinsettia Bowl Late Night ATS Bailout on San Diego State -

After taking a closer look into this matchup, I think the Aztecs are showing some great value here laying just a field goal. This is a rare instance where you have a team playing on their home field, which is a huge advantage for San Diego State. The Aztecs also have a big edge here in terms of preparation, as Navy just played their regular season finale 10 days ago against rival Army. So while the Midshipmen have had 9 days to prepare, San Diego State has been getting ready for this contest for over 3 weeks.

One of the things that makes Navy such a difficult team to play in the regular season, is you don't have enough time to prepare for their triple-option attack. It's a difficult offense for a defense to understand in a weeks time. Giving teams 2-3 weeks to prepare for their bowl game is a big reason why Navy has struggled in bowl games. The Midshipmen are just 2-5 in their last 7 bowl games.

Adding to this is the fact that San Diego State is very familiar with the triple-option offense due to playing in the same conference as Air Force. The Aztecs dominated the Falcons 30-14 at home back on Nov. 21. They held Air Force to just 140 rushing yards on 41 attempts (3.4 ypg) and I look for them to have similar success here against Navy.

Not only do I look for the Aztecs to have success here against the Midshipmen's offense, but I like there chances of being able to move the ball against the Navy defense. San Diego State finished with the 30th ranked rushing offense (218.6 ypg) and will be going up against a Midshipmen defense that finished 93rd against the run (199.7 ypg).

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Home favorites off a home win against a conference rival against an opponent off a close win by 7 points or less against a conference rival are 73-41 ATS since 1992. That's a 64% system in favor of the Aztecs. Take San Diego State!

4* Poinsettia Bowl Total Dominator on UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for tonight's showdown between Navy and San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl. Both of these teams trended towards the UNDER this season. UNDER was 7-4 in Navy's 11 games with a total and 11-1 on they year for San Diego State. The only game for the Aztecs that finished over the total was a 29-38 loss at Boise State.

With this game being played on San Diego State's home field at Qualcomm Stadium, that only adds to the value here on the UNDER. The Aztecs allowed just 12.7 ppg at home this season and should have no problem keeping Navy's offense in check. San Diego's State 3-3-5 defense is built to stop these triple-option attacks and that was evident in their 30-14 win over Air Force in their second to last game of the regular season. They held and Air Force rushing attack that finished the year ranked 8th in the country at 273.1 ypg to just 140 yards on 41 attempts (3.4 ypg).

The key thing here is that Navy isn't going to abandon the run even if they struggle, as their just not built to throw the football. San Diego State is also a run dominated offense, as they finished 30th in rushing (218.6 ypg) compared to 102nd in passing (181.5 ypg). With both teams running constantly, the clock will continue to run, which is exactly what we are looking for when backing an UNDER like this. Just not enough possession here for this one to turn into a shootout.

UNDER is 10-2 in Navy's last 12 games against strong rushing teams that are averaging 4.75 or more yards/carry and 21-7 in San Diego State's last 28 against poor passing teams that average 150 or less yards/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 40-12 since 1992 in games with a total set between 49.5 to 56 points, where you have a non-conference matchup between two good teams (outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards/play) facing off at least 8 games into the season. That's a 77% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* Miami Beach Bowl ATS Main Event on Memphis -

One of the positives to the Tigers not getting near the attention that they deserve for being one of the most improved teams in the country, is they are showing tremendous value in their bowl game. Memphis’ only loss inside conference play was a 24-28 defeat to Houston. Their other two defeats came against Power 5 opponents on the road in UCLA and Ole Miss. The Tigers were competitive in both of those losses. The Tigers lost by just 7-points at UCLA and went into the 4th quarter trailing Ole Miss by a score of just 3-7 before eventually losing 3-24.

The key thing you have to do with BYU is focus on their play after they lost star quarterback Taysom Hill, who was in the Heisman conversation before his season-ending injury. Without Hill the Cougars went 4-3, but 3 of those wins came against the likes of Middle Tennessee, UNLV and Savannah State. They did beat Cal on the road in their season finale, but the Golden Bears were in a tough spot coming off an emotional loss to rival Stanford. The other key thing to note is all four of those wins came against teams that have awful defenses, which allowed BYU to be competitive without their two stars offensively (also without starting running back Jamaal Williams).

Getting their offense going against a motivated Memphis team will be a challenge. The Tigers finished the year 5th in scoring defense (17.1 ppg) and 21st in total defense (343.3 ypg). They were especially good against the run, allowing just 3.3 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.1. BYU backup quarterback Christian Stewart completed just 58.7% of his attempts and I look for him to struggle in this one without the running game to keep them in favorable down and distances.

Not only do I think the Tigers have an edge when they are on defense, but I look for their offense to have a relatively easy time moving the ball against the Cougars. Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch completed 64% of his attempts on the season and will be facing a BYU defense that finished 104th in the country against the pass (266.7 ypg). The Tigers also have a strong running game that averaged 4.4 yards/carry and ranked 41st overall at 191.8 ypg.

Memphis is a dominant 26-13 ATS in their last 36 games against teams who average 31 or more points/game. The Cougars are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games when they come in having won at least 4 of their last 6 games. These two trends combine to form a 71% (32-13) system in favor of the Tigers. Take Memphis!

3* Las Vegas Bowl ATS Main Event on Utah -

Unfortunately for the Rams their success came at a price, as head coach Jim McElwain was just recently hired to be the new head coach at Florida. That’s a huge loss for Colorado State and one that I think is going to make it very difficult for them to come out an play at the level needed to contend with a team like Utah.

While the Rams will be lacking focus and a sense of direction, the Utes figure to come into this matchup highly motivated after not playing in a bowl each of the last two years. Adding to this is the fact that Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has guided the Utes to a 7-1 record in bowl games.

Colorado State has put up some impressive offensive numbers in 2014. The Rams come in ranked 22nd in the country in scoring (35.9 ppg) and 12th in total offense (497.9 ypg). Unfortunately for Colorado State they will be going up against a very strong Utah defense that features one of the best defensive fronts in the country. The Utes averaged 4.4 sacks/game, easily the best mark in the country.

Interestingly enough the next best team in getting after the quarterback is Utah’s in-state rival Utah State, who just so happens to play in the same division as Colorado State. While the Rams beat Utah State, the Aggies held them to a season low 16-points and 319 yards of total offense. Utah is a much better offensive team than Utah State and this is why I think the Utes would have had no problem winning here by at least a field goal even if McElwain hadn’t jumped ship to the SEC.

Utah is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games against excellent passing teams that compete 62% or more of their attempts. The Utes are also 29-12 ATS in their last 41 games when playing with 2 or more weeks to prepare and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. These trends combine to form a 73% (55-20) system in favor of the Utes. Take Utah!

5* Pre-New Years Bowl Total of the Year on Utah State/UTEP UNDER

The last time Utah State took the field they were embarrassed 19-50 in a loss at Boise State, which denied them from getting back the MWC Championship Game. I think that poor showing by the Aggies defense has created some nice value here in what should be a defensive showdown.

Utah State comes into this game ranked 36th in the country in total defense (362.3 ypg) and 21st in scoring defense (20.8 ppg). UTEP on the other hand is 45th in total defense (369.8 ypg) and are only allowing 28.7 ppg.

The key here is that both of these teams rely on their defense to win games, as both have struggled on the offensive side of things. Utah State has lost 3 quarterbacks to season-ending injuries and as a result come in 80th in the country in total offense (381.3 ypg). While the Miners have been fortunate to not suffer any injuries at the quarterback position, they have been even worse than Utah State offensively. UTEP comes in 106th in total offense (357.0 ypg). The Miners do have the nation's 34th ranked rushing attack (212.7 ypg), but will be going up against the Aggies 26th ranked run defense (129.3 ypg).

Knowing that their offenses are going to have a difficult time sustaining drives, I look for both teams to play conservative and turn this into a field position battle. That should lead to a lot of empty possessions that eat up the clock and have this one finishing well below the mark of 46.

UNDER is 10-2 in Utah State's last 12 games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4 and perfect 6-0 in UTEP's last 6 when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. There's also a strong system in play. UNDER is 51-22 over the last 5 seasons in non-conference games when you have a good rushing team that is averaging 190 to 230 ypg (UTEP) against a team with a strong run defense (100-140 ypg). That's a 70% system. Take the UNDER!

4* New Orleans Bowl ATS Heavy Hitter on Nevada -

I know this game is being played in the Ragin’ Cajuns backyard, but I think Nevada is going to put an end to their dominance in the New Orleans Bowl. There comes a point when playing in the same bowl game just doesn’t mean as much as it did before (4th straight appearance). Keep in mind last year they barely squeaked out a 24-21 win over C-USA’s Tulane and were outgained in that contest 388-325 (-63 yards).

Lafayette’s 7-1 record inside the Sun Belt isn’t as impressive as years past, as many of the top teams in this conference have jumped ship to C-USA. What stands out to me is how they fared in non-conference play. They lost by 28-points at home to Louisiana Tech, 41 at Ole Miss and 25 at Boise State. That defeat against the Broncos is a good key to this matchup, as Nevada nearly upset the Broncos at home in a 46-51 loss. The Wolf Pack also had an impressive 24-13 win over Washington State and nearly upset Pac-12 South Champion Arizona (28-35) on the road.

A lot of people are going to look at the fact that the Ragin’ Cajuns finished a respectable 44th in the country against the run, allowing just 146.7 ypg, and expect them to give a Nevada offense that relies heavily on the run some trouble. I don’t think that will be the case. In those 3 non-conference games that I mentioned above, Lafayette allowed an average of 238.0 rushing yards per game and 6.0 yards/carry. The Wolf Pack come in ranked 32nd in the country in rushing at 215.2 ypg with a 4.9 average/carry.

Not only does Nevada figure to be able to get their running game on track, but look for senior quarterback Cody Fajardo to have a big day through the air. The Ragin’ Cajuns finished 113th in the country against the pass (275.3 ypg) and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.2% of their attempts.

Defensively the Wolf Pack weren't great, but this is a great matchup for them. Lafayette is heavily dependent on their running game, as they come in 25th in rushing (229.4 ypg) compared to 98th in passing (188.5 ypg). Nevada was a lot better against the run than the pass. Adding to this is that Lafayette is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a poor pass defense that is allowing opposing teams to complete 62% or more of their attempts. All signs point to the Wolf Pack scoring with ease and the Ragin’ Cajuns struggling to keep up. Take Nevada!

4* Army/Navy Rivalry Game of the Month on UNDER 58

Each of the last 8 meetings in this series have finished below the total and I’m expecting that streak to continue. The most points during this stretch that these two have combined for is 48 (2010 & 2011). The average score in the last 22 meetings is a mere 49 points.

One of the big reasons that we see such a huge total is both defenses are statistically two of the worst in the country. Navy comes in ranked 87th in total defense (426.3 ypg) and Army is 98th (444.4 ypg). Adding to this is the fact that the Midshipmen are allowing 29.9 ppg and the Black Knights are giving up 34.4 ppg. Most of the public will look at these numbers and won’t think twice about taking the over, without giving any consideration to the history of this series.

The key here is that this is one of the biggest rivalries that there is in college football and both teams are going to give everything they have to win this game. Navy has shown no signs of being content with their winning streak in the series and it goes without saying that Army is going to treat this like their Super Bowl.

A huge factor here that I think gets overlooked is that both of these teams run the triple-option attack, which means both teams are very familiar with not only how to operate it offensively, but the keys to stopping it. This is why you can’t look too much into the poor defensive numbers that these two teams have put up against the more conventional offenses that they go up against during the course of the regular season.

Two other things that favor into this one going under the total is that both teams have had more than enough time to prepare for this matchup. Navy was off last week and will be playing just their 2nd game since Nov. 15, while Army has had a full two weeks off coming into this one. The other key is that both teams almost exclusively only run the football, which means the clock is going to be running constantly. That’s going to limit the amount of opportunities that both teams have to score.

UNDER is 12-2 in Army’s last 14 road games against excellent rushing teams who average 5.25 or more yards/carry and 7-0 in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is also 24-10 in Navy’s last 34 games against teams who average 200 or more rushing yards/game and 7-0 in their last 7 when playing against a team that’s won just 25% to 40% of their games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (50-12) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Wisconsin/Ohio State Big Ten Total of the Year on UNDER

I don't think the books have adjusted this total near enough to make up for the loss of Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett. A big reason for that is likely due to the Big Ten Championship Game having produced some high-scoring games. Wisconsin and Michigan State combined for 81 points in 2011, Wisconsin and Nebraska combined for 101 in 2012 and last year Ohio State and Michigan State put up 58. I'm expecting a complete reversal, as I see this being an extremely low-scoring defensive battle.

With Ohio State having to turn to sophomore Cardale Jones in what will be his first start, I look for them to simply the playbook and try and take as much pressure off of him as they can by running the football. While Wisconsin has the 8th ranked run defense, the Buckeyes come in 12th in the country in rushing at 257.4 ypg and are averaging 5.6 yards/carry against teams that on average only allow 4.4. I believe that Ohio State is going to be able to have just enough success on the ground to sustain some drives and eat up the clock, but I don't see them being able to convert those drives into touchdowns.

On the flip side of this, I don't think Melvin Gordon and the Badgers are going to run all over the Buckeyes like a lot of people think. Urban Meyer and the Ohio State staff are going to load the box and make Wisconsin quarterback Joel Stave make plays, something I don't believe he's going to be able to consistently enough to sustain drives. The other key here is that the Badgers aren't going to abandon the run.

I think both teams have a lot of confidence in their defenses to be able to stop the opposing team. I believe it's going to result in a more conservative approach offensively that has both teams looking to win the field position battle. Take the UNDER!

4* Big 12 Game of the Month on Kansas State +

After taking a closer look at this matchup, I'm taking the Wildcats plus the points in the ultimate revenge spot. If you remember back to 2012. Kansas State was No. 2 in the country and went into Baylor with a perfect 10-0 record and looked to be on their way to playing in the BCS National Championship Game. Instead, the Wildcats got embarrassed in a 24-52 loss to the Bears. Now Kansas State has a chance of knocking Baylor completely out of the 4-team playoff and you can bet players like senior wide out Tyler Lockett has made sure the Wildcats are 100% focused on this matchup.

One of the big concerns coming into this game was the health of Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty, who was knocked out of last week's game against Texas Tech with a concussion. Petty has since been upgraded to probable, but it sounds likes he's rushing back and potentially not 100% recovered. One big hit and he's likely out of this game and that's more than likely the end of the road for the Bears. The other thing here is that Petty could get happy feet trying to avoid the big hit, which could lead to some quick throws and bad decisions.

Kansas State might not have the talent that Baylor has on their roster, but the Wildcats are coached as well as any team in the country. Bill Synder has a way of getting his team to really respond in the role of the underdog and when going up against big time opponents. The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when listed as an underdog.

The other big key here is that the Kansas State defense has shown they can hold up against some pretty good offenses. The Wildcats held Auburn to just 20 points on 359 yards of total offense. The other thing here is that Kansas State offensively isn't a push over and the Bears' defense has struggled to contain some of the top offenses in the Big 12. Baylor allowed 58 points to TCU, 41 to West Virginia and 46 to Texas Tech. The Wildcats come in 22nd in the country averaging 36.6 ppg and have scored 40+ 5 times this season.

I see this game being back and fourth the entire way and in the end I see it being decided by a touchdown or less either way. Adding to this is the fact that home favorites in conference games between two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game) are 46-88 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Kansas State!

3* NCAAF Week 15 No Doubt ATS Rout on TCU -

I don't typically like to lay this many points, but this is one spot where I think we will have no problem covering this massive number. I believe that in order for TCU to have any shot of staying in the 4-team playoff with a Baylor win over Kansas State, is a convincing win over Iowa State. Knowing that this could very well decide their fate, I look for the Horned Frogs to come out looking to make this as big of a blowout as they can.

They are certainly capable of winning this game by 50+ points. We have already seem them knock of Texas Tech at home 82-27. Iowa State is equally as bad, if not worse, defensively than the Red Raiders. The Cyclones come in ranked 123rd in the country in total defense, giving up 511.8 ypg. Texas Tech is 124th, but keep in mind that has to do with the fact that they have already played TCU. Iowa State is giving up 5.7 yards/rush and 7.1 yards/pass attempt. The Horned Frogs are averaging 5.4 yards/carry against teams that only allow 4.3 and 7.8 yards/pass attempt. Simply put, TCU is going to be able to score at will and do so rather quickly.

The big difference between Texas Tech and Iowa State is the Cyclones are no where close as good offensively as the Red Raiders. Texas Tech currently ranks 10th in the country in total offense (481.1 ypg). Iowa State on the other hand is 77th (384.9 ypg). The Cyclones gave up 49 at home to Baylor and 59 at home to Oklahoma. This isn't a team that plays well on the road, which is evident by the fact that they got clobbered by 20-points at Kansas (14-34). If the Jayhawks can beat this team by 20-points, TCU can certainly win here by 35 or more.

Iowa State is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 525 or more total yards in each of their last 2 games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 24 or more points in the 1st half of their last game.

Adding to all of this is a big time system telling us to fade the Cyclones. Road underdogs who have been outrushed by their opponents by 1.25+ yards/carry on the season after allowing 6.25 or more yards/carry in each of their last 2 games are a mere 5-27 ATS since 1992. That's a 84% system in favor of the Horned Frogs. Take TCU!

4* Arizona/Oregon Pac-12 Game of the Month on UNDER

With Arizona coming in ranked 20th in the country in scoring at 36.7 ppg and Oregon 4th at 45.9 ppg, the public is going to back the over blindly in this game. I believe the value here is with the UNDER. Each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams have finished below the mark. They combined for just 55 points at Oregon earlier this season.

The thing you have to keep in mind is that the defenses have an even bigger advantage in the rematch, plus anyone who has watched these two teams play, know that Arizona's 3-3-5 defense gives the Ducks all kinds of problems. Oregon has also been playing much better defensively than they were when they two teams played back in early October.

You also have to factor in the magnitude of this game. Oregon is playing to maintain their spot in the playoffs, while the Wildcats are hoping for an upset and some help to get into the playoffs. The intensity is going to be high on both sides, which I believe is going to lead to this game going well below the mark.

UNDER is 10-2 in Oregon's last 12 games against excellent offensive teams who are averaging 450 or more total yards/game and a perfect 6-0 in Arizona's last 6 games against strong passing teams who are averaging 8 or more yards/attempt. You also have to factor in that this game is being played on the grass surface of Levi's Stadium. UNDER is 3-1-1 in Ducks' last 5 games on grass and 4-1 in Wildcats' last 5 games on grass.

Adding to all of this is a big time system. The UNDER is 30-8 over the last 10 seasons in games played on a neutral field with a total set at 63 or more points in a matchup involving two teams who are allowing 21-28 ppg. That's a 79% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* UCF/East Carolina NCAAF Main Event on UCF +

After taking a closer look, the Knights should not be catching a touchdown in this one. With a win UCF will earn a share of the American Athletic title with Memphis and potentially Cincinnati. East Carolina on the other hand doesn't have anything to gain here, as they already have two conference losses. Simply put, the Knights are going to be the more motivated team in this one and I wouldn't be shocked if they won here outright.

The Pirates got off to an impressive start this season, which saw them go 4-0 ATS with big wins over the likes of Virginia Tech and North Carolina. That caused the books to overvalue this team and as a result we have seen East Carolina go just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.

The big key here is that UCF has the talent and playmakers defensively to keep this high-powered Pirates offense in check. The Knights come in ranked 4th in the country in total defense (271.2 ypg) and have been equally as strong against the run (105.0, 9th) as they have the pass (166.2 ypg).

On the flip side of this, I know UCF has had their struggles offensively, but this is a good matchup for them. The Knights have really struggled running the football, but have had some success through the air. UCF comes in 66th in passing at 226.7 ypg, but are averaging 263.0 ypg over the last 5. East Carolina's defense has been outstanding against the run (103.4 ypg, 7th), but are one of the worst in the country against the pass (261.5, 100th). Look for the Knights to make enough big plays down the field to keep this within a touchdown for the cover.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a conference win by 10 or more against an opponent off a road game where both teams scored 31 or more points are 40-14 ATS since 1992. That's a 74% system in favor of the Knights. Take UCF!

3* NCAAF In-State Rivalry No Doubt ATS Rout on Kansas State -

I have no problem laying this big number on the Wildcats at home against a Kansas team that has clearly given up on this season. The Jayhawks were embarrassed last Saturday by Oklahoma 7-44, which saw Sooners' freshman running back Samaje Perine rush for an FBS-record 427 yards. It wasn't just that Kansas was outclassed in talent, the effort was simply not there. I'm not expecting it to be any better on the road against a physical Kansas State team. 

The big key here is that Wildcats' head coach Bill Synder isn't going to let his team look ahead to next week's big game at Baylor. The fact that the Wildcats nearly upset TCU a couple weeks ago will help him get his point across. You also have to take into consideration that these are two in-state rivals and that should have the Wildcats focusedKeep in mind that before their big game against Oklahoma earlier this season, they rolled over Texas Tech 45-13 at home. Similar story prior to their huge showdown at TCU, as they embarrassed Oklahoma State at home the week before 48-14. 

Offensively the Wildcats aren't going to have any problem putting up points on the Jayhawks, who come in allowing a staggering 42.5 points and 559 yards per game on the road. The fewest points Kansas has allowed all season on the road is 33 points, so that's the low point for Kansas State. I'm expecting to see the Wildcats score close to 50, but they likely won't need that much to win here by 28 points. Kansas offensively is averaging just 11.8 ppg on the road this season, where they are getting outscored by 30.6 ppg. 

Kansas is 27-44 ATS in their last 71 games against a top level team who has won more than 75% of their games and 10-22 ATS in their last 32 as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points. 

There's also a strong system in play suggesting a fade of the Jayhawks. Road underdogs who are a poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 yards/play) against a team with a defense that is allowing just (4.8 to 5.6 yards/play) after gaining 2.75 or less yards/play in their last game are 5-24 ATS since 1992. That's a 83% system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Kansas State!

4* Big 10 Total of the Month on Minnesota/Wisconsin UNDER

With a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game on the line, I'm expecting a defensive battle similar to what we saw last year. The Badgers edged out a 20-7 win at Minnesota last season, which fell well below the total set of 51 points.

Both Wisconsin and Minnesota have got to this point behind excellent rushing attacks and strong defense. The Badgers come in ranked 3rd in the country in rushing (343.5 ypg) and 3rd in scoring defense (16.1 ppg). The Golden Gophers are 25th in rushing (228.9 ypg) and 30th in scoring defense (22.5).

The important thing here is that both offenses are one dimensional with the running game. Minnesota comes in averaging 47 rush attempts to just 18 pass attempts, while Wisconsin averages 46 rush attempts to just 21 pass attempts.

The clock should be running constantly in this one and both offense figure to really have to work to sustain drives. Expect to see a lot of long possessions with a good mix of empty drives and both offenses settling for field goals. Keep in mind last year not only did these two teams combine for just 27 points, together they totaled just 509 yards.

UNDER is 13-4 in all games Kill has coached when his team comes in having covered 3 out of the last 4 and 15-5 in Andersen's last 20 he's coached with his team having 2 out of the last 3. UNDER is also 11-4 in Minnesota's last 15 overall and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. It's also 6-2-1 in Wisconsin's last 9 games in November. These trends combine to form a 75% (49-16) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Florida/Florida State Non-Conference Game of the Month on Florida +

Florida State has been consistently overvalued all season and I believe they are once again laying too many points. The Seminoles have made a living on winning close games, as nearly half of their victories (5) have come in games where they needed a go-ahead score in the 4th quarter. It’s only a matter of time before Florida State’s luck runs out and I wouldn’t be shocked if Florida won this game outright.

The Gators come into this game playing their best football of the season. They have won 3 of their last 4, with the only defeat being a 20-23 overtime loss to South Carolina. They most impressive win during this stretch is easily that 38-20 upset of rival Georgia. That victory showed that this team still has a lot of fight left in them and there’s no question they are going to lay it all on the line with this being Muschamp’s last game. 

The two big reasons why I like Florida to at least keep it close enough to cover against the Seminoles is they have the talent to impose their will in the running game and really wear down Florida State’s defense and they are more than strong enough defensively to slow down Jameis Winston and the Seminoles high-powered offense. 

The Gators come in ranked 39th in the country in rushing (197.1 ypg) and averaged an impressive 283.3 ypg on the ground over their last 3 SEC games. Florida State just gave up 240 rushing yards to Boston College, which was the 5th time the last 6 games that they allowed 150+.

Defensively, Florida is allowing just 2.9 yards/rush against teams averaging 4.2 and are only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 53.8% of their attempts for a mere 5.9 yards/attempt. They also have the players up front who can put pressure on Winston and disrupt his timing, which we saw the Eagles do very well this past Saturday. 

Florida is 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games after playing 2 straight at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 on the road. 

There’s also a strong system in play. Road teams who have committed 1 or less turnovers in 4 consecutive games are 96-60 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of the Gators. Take Florida!

3* NCAAF Week 14 Oddsmakers Error on Cal -

While BYU is off 3 straight 20+ point wins and the Golden Bears come in having lost 5 of their last 6, including a 17-38 home loss to Stanford last out, I believe Cal is showing some great value here as a 4-point favorite.

While the Cougars have rolled off three straight blowout wins, those all came against some pretty bad competition in Middle Tennessee, UNLV and Savannah State. Prior to that BYU had lost 4 straight, including home losses to both Utah State and Nevada. Keep in mind that this is not the same Cougars' team that opened the season 4-0, as they have lost star quarterback Taysom Hill and their best running back in Jamaal Williams to season-ending injuries.

As for Cal and their 1-5 record over their last 6 games, those 5 losses have come against quality opponents inside the Pac-12 in Washington, UCLA, Oregon, USC and Stanford. The long win during this stretch was an impressive 45-31 victory at Oregon State. The important thing here is that this game means everything to Cal and nothing to BYU. The Cougars have already secured a winning record and are locked into the inaugural Miami Bowl, while the Golden Bears have to win this game to become bowl eligible, which is of even more significance since Cal hasn't been to a bowl since 2011.

Aside from the situation heavily favoring the Golden Bears, Cal is the better team in terms of talent and their offense couldn't match up any better with this BYU defense. The Golden Bears have the 5th ranked passing attack in the country (341.7 ypg) and will be going up against a BYU defense that is 97th against the pass (255.2 ypg).

Cal is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. BYU is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 in a game with a total set at 63 or more, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 off a home win and 0-6 ATS in their 6 after game with a turnover margin of +2 or better.

Adding to all of this is a great system in play telling us to fade the Cougars. Road underdogs after scoring 37 or more in their last contest in a game involving two explosive offenses (34+ ppg) are 25-56 ATS since 1992. That's a 69% long-term system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

3* Minnesota/Wisconsin NCAAF Main Event on Wisconsin -

This may seem like a lot of points to be laying in a game of this magnitude, but Wisconsin is the much better team and has a huge advantage of getting this contest at home. The Badgers are a perfect 6-0 at home this season, where they are beating opponents by an average score of 46.8 to 14.8 (+32 ppg). Minnesota on the other hand is just 2-2 on the road, which includes an ugly 24-28 loss to Illinois, and are getting outscored away from home 24.0 to 22.2 (-1.8 ppg).

Most people will point to star running back Melvin Gordon as the big reason why Wisconsin is playing so well down the stretch, but I believe it’s the resurgence of junior starting quarterback Joel Stave that has saved their season. After getting benched for his poor play early in the year, Stave has returned to the starting lineup looking like a completely different quarterback. When he’s playing well this team is capable of playing with any team in the country.

I’ll admit that I have been impressed Minnesota, but this is simply a horrible matchup for the Golden Gophers. Minnesota has zero threat of a passing game, as they come in ranked 119th in the country with a mere 134.7 ypg through the air.

All of their success offensively is predicated on their ability to run the football and that’s where it goes bad for the Golden Gophers. Wisconsin has one of the elite run defenses in the country. The Badgers are only giving up 97.1 ypg (5th) and 2.9 yards/carry. Adding to all of this is it figures to be even harder to run on Wisconsin on the road, as the defense is going to feed off the energy of the fans and really fly around the field. The Badgers are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games against a team who averages 200+ rushing yards/game.

With an offense that figures to really struggle to move the football, Minnesota’s only hope is to keep this a low scoring game. I just don’t see that being the case. In order to be able to slow down Wisconsin, you have to be able to keep Gordon and their rushing game in check. Minnesota ranks 50th against the run and just last week allowed Ameer Abdullah and the Cornhuskers to rush for 174 yards on 38 attempts (4.6 ypg).

Even if the Golden Gophers do an okay job early, I look for their defense to wear down in the 2nd half and that’s when I see this turning into a bit of a blowout. Keep in mind that because Minnesota has no passing game, they are not a team that is built to play from behind. If they are forced to start airing it out, this game could get ugly in a hurry.

Adding to all of this is a nice system in play favoring a fade of the Golden Gophers. Road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points who are off an upset conference win as an underdog against an opponent off a conference win are just 34-73 ATS since 1992.That's a 68% system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin!

5* C-USA Total of the Year on Rice/LA Tech UNDER 50.5

The books have set the mark too high in this one. Both Rice and Louisiana Tech are better defensively than they are offensively. The Owls are only allowing 26.2 ppg on the season and have and are only allowing 19.6 ppg during their current 8-1 run. That's with them giving up 41 on the road to Marshall. The Bulldogs are allowing just 24.6 ppg and that's with giving up 48 to Oklahoma and 45 to Auburn. It's also worth noting that Louisiana Tech is allowing just 15.7 ppg at home.

Both defenses also rank inside the Top 50 in the county in total defense. The Owls are 47th (371.4 ypg) and the Bulldogs are 28th (347.7 ypg). I look for each of these stop units to have a lot of success in this one, as both offenses are pretty one dimensional. Rice is just 77th in passing (213.3 ypg) and Louisiana Tech is a mere 99th in rushing (136.5 ypg).

The situation here also favors a low scoring game, as the winner of this game will win the West and take on Marshall in the C-USA Championship Game. You also have to factor in that the tape is out on both of these teams. It's unlikely either of these teams are going to do anything offensively that the opposing defense hasn't prepared for in practice.

The UNDER is 6-0 over the last 3 seasons when Rice faces a team with a winning record and 7-0 in the Owls' last 7 after 3 straight games where they committed 1 or less turnovers. These two trends combine to form a perfect 100% (13-0) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Rout on East Carolina -

Even though East Carolina is coming off an impressive 34-6 win and cover at home as a 19.5-point favorite against Tulane last week, I still think this team is a bit undervalued to close out the regular season, due to the fact that they had lost their previous 5 games against the spread. You also have Tulsa off cover at Houston, where they lost by just 10-points as a 19.5-point dog.

I think there's some great value here with East Carolina only laying 17.5-point. Tulsa hasn't covered in back-to-back games all season and are a miserable 0-9 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more.

I just don't see the Golden Hurricane being able to keep the Pirates offense from scoring at will in this game. East Carolina comes in averaging an impressive 36.7 ppg and are 3rd in the country in total offense averaging a whopping 547.2 ypg. This high-powered attack will be going up against a Tulsa defense that is allowing 38.4 ppg against teams who are only averaging 26.8 ppg and are 116th overall in total defense (484.6 ypg).

Not only do the Pirates figure to move the ball at will, all signs point to them racking up a lot of big plays, which is going to lead to a lot of quick scores. Exactly what we want to see to cover a big number like this on the road. The strength of East Carolina's offense is their passing attack, which ranks 2nd in the country at 367.3 ypg. The Golden Hurricane's defense has had awful time against the pass this season. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks who on average complete 57.9% of their attempts for 6.8 yards/attempt to complete 61.6% for 8.8.

The other big key here is that the Pirates are strong enough defensively to keep Tulsa from scoring enough to keep this one close. East Carolina comes in ranked 36th in the country in total defense (362.6 ypg). The stat that stands out to me is that they are 4th against the run (94.8 ypg) and how bad Tulsa has been beat when they struggle on the ground. Tulsa is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in games where they rush for 130 or less yards. Most importantly all 5 of those losses have come by at least 20 points.

There's also a great system in play here. Road favorites who allowed 14 points or less in their last game against an opponent that has allowed 31 or more in each of their last two games are 48-18 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Pirates. Take East Carolina!

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider Total of the Year on Missouri/Arkansas UNDER

I think we are getting some great value here with this total after watching Arkansas put up 30 points on Ole Miss and Missouri hanging 29 on Tennessee. What stands out to me is that both of these teams dominated defensively. Arkansas pitched their second straight shutout, while limiting Ole Miss to 316 yards, 19 first downs and 6 turnovers. The Tigers on the other hand allowed just 18 first downs on 279 yards of total offense to the Volunteers.

I believe all signs here point to a defensive battle. Arkansas has clearly turned it up a notch on the defensive side of the ball and the bigger the game the better this team seems to play. Keep in mind that the Razorbacks held Mississippi State to just 17 points on the road and limited Alabama to just 14 at home. Missouri is far from an offensive juggernaut and I could really seem them struggling to sustain drives against Arkansas.

The Tigers offense has been heavily reliant on their running game. Missouri is 55th in rushing (177.6 ypg) compared to 103rd in passing (183.1 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the Razorbacks defense, which is 20th against the run (120.9 ypg) and are allowing just 3.6 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.7.

At the same time, Missouri's defense looks to be able to keep the Arkansas offense in check. The Tigers wouldn't be playing for a second straight SEC East title if it wasn't for the play of their defense. Missouri comes in 23rd in total defense (335.0 ypg) and most importantly are strong against the run (125.4 ypg, 23rd). Adding to this is the fact that the Tigers are only giving up 3.3 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.6. The Arkansas offense could also be limited here, as starting quarterback Brandon Allen is questionable with a hip injury.

So not only do we have to strong defensive teams that matchup well with the opposing teams' offense, but we have two teams that almost exclusively rely on their running games. It's a perfect recipe for an UNDER, especially when you add in the magnitude of this game with the Tigers playing for a spot in the SEC Championship Game.

UNDER is 15-5-1 in Arkansas' last 21 road games against a team with a winning record, 5-1 in their last 6 conference games and 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The UNDER is also 5-1-1 in Missouri's last 7 off a SU win, 5-0 in their last 5 home games and 3-1 this season against strong offensive teams who are averaging 5.9 or more yards/play. These trends combine to form a 80% (37-9) system in favor of this one going below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* MAC Game of the Month on Akron -

The Zips are showing some great value here as a mere 3-point road favorite against 1-9 Kent State, whose only win came back on Oct. 18 against Army. Akron got off to a strong 4-2 start that included an impressive 21-10 win at Pittsburgh, but are just 1-4 over their last 5 games. They snapped a 4-game skid last Tuesday with an 30-6 home win over UMass and I look for them to carry over that momentum against the Golden Flashes.

Motivation is crucial element when handicapping games this late in the season and Akron should clearly be the more motivated team on Friday. The Zips need to win this game to become bowl eligible at 6-6, which is a big deal for a program that hasn't been to a bowl game since 2005. Kent State on the other hand has absolutely nothing to play for in this one. It's also worth noting that the Golden Flashes are coming off a hectic week that saw their game against Buffalo scheduled for Wednesday, moved to Friday and eventually cancelled. So while they technically come in off a bye, it's not the same with them spending all of last week focusing on Buffalo.

Kent State offensively is one of the worst in the country. The Golden Flashes haven't scored more than 20 points in a single conference game and come in ranked 125th in the country in scoring at 15.3 ppg and 116th in total offense (306.0 ypg). Akron is very sound defensively, as they come in ranked 42nd in total defense (367.5 ypg).

While the Zips have had their struggles offensively, it's not like we need them to score a ton of points here to win by at least a field goal. Kent State also isn't a team that is talented enough on the defensive side of the ball to shutdown Akron. The Golden Flashes are allowing 29.5 ppg and come in ranked 105th in the country against the run (216.6 ypg).

The Zips are 5-1 this season when they rush for at least 100 yards and 0-5 when they don't eclipse the century mark. I'm confident Arkon will get at least 100 on the ground and wouldn't be shocked if they won this one going away.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Teams who are an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 yards/carry) against a poor run defense (4.3 to 4.8 yards/carry) at least 8 games into the season after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their last game are 24-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a dynamite 89% system in favor of the Zips. Take Akron!

5* SEC Game of the Year on LSU -

I believe we are getting an absolute gift with this line, as the Tigers are the much better team and couldn't matchup any better with Texas A&M. The only reason the Aggies aren't a bigger underdog here is they recently had a huge upset win on the road against then No. 3 Auburn. As impressive as that was, Texas A&M returned to form with a 27-34 home loss to Missouri the following week.

Another reason we are seeing a small line here is the Tigers come in off back-to-back losses, with the most recent being an ugly 0-17 loss at Arkansas. While that win helped the Razorbacks snap a 17-game SEC losing streak, anyone who has watched Arkansas play knows that team is better than their record would indicate. The Razorbacks nearly beat Alabama at home (13-14) and Mississippi State on the road (10-17). It might not seem like LSU has a whole lot to play for, but a loss here could mean a last place finish in the SEC West and that's just not acceptable by their standards.

As for Texas A&M's win against Auburn, they got extremely lucky in that one. The Tigers had a 582 to 453  (-129) edge in total yards and 31 to 22 advantage in first downs. Adding to this is the fact that the Aggies have been outgained by at least 100 yards in each of their last 4 games, including a home game against Sun Belt's ULM.

The biggest key here is that the matchups on both sides of the ball heavily favor LSU. In order for Texas A&M's offense to have success they have to be able to throw the football. The strength of the LSU defense is their secondary, which comes in ranked 6th in the country, allowing just 164.0 ypg. On the flip side of this, the Tigers offense needs to be able to run the ball and they should have no problem doing just that against Texas A&M's poor excuse of a run defense. The Aggies are giving up 208.9 ypg and 4.9 ypc on the season.

At first look it appears that LSU can't run the ball on the road, as they are only averaging 124 ypg and 3.0 ypc away from home. However, that's extremely misleading. The Tigers 4 road games have come against 4 really good run defenses in Wisconsin, Auburn, Florida and Arkansas.

Texas A&M is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record, while LSU is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 after being outgained by 125 or more total yards and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after playing in a game where 29 or fewer total points were scored.

Adding to all of this is a huge system. Road favorites that gained 225 or less total yards in their previous game, who returned 5 or more offensive starters from the previous season are 31-4 ATS since 1992. That's a dynamite 89% system in favor of the Tigers. Take LSU!

3* Ohio/Miami (OH) NCAAF Tuesday Night Main Event on Ohio -

Ohio is showing great value here laying just a field goal against the RedHawks. Getting to a bowl game is a big deal for these small schools and I believe that extra incentive of winning to become bowl eligible is worth backing the Bobcats in this one. Miami has only won two games all season and neither were impressive. They benefited from a +3 turnover margin in a 42-41 home win over UMass and escaped with a 10-3 win over Kent State, who is currently 1-9 on the season.

Ohio clearly isn’t one of the top teams in the MAC, but they are currently sitting in 2nd in the East division at 3-4. The thing you have to like about the Bobcats is they have beat all the teams they were suppose to beat. Their 6 losses have come against Kentucky, Marshall, Central Michigan, Bowling Green, Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. The only team out of the bunch that currently doesn’t have a winning record is Kentucky out of the SEC.

Defensively Ohio comes in ranked a respectable 69th in the country in total defense, giving up just 401.3 ypg. They have been much better on that side of the ball lately, as they are only allowing 329.7 ypg over their last 3 and just held a talented Northern Illinois team to just 325 yards last week. Miami is far from an explosive offense, as the RedHawks rank 103rd in scoring at 22.5 ppg and are only averaging a mere 19.8 ppg at home.

Not only do the Bobcats figure to have the edge defensively, but they should be able to have more than enough success offensively to create some separation and cover this spread rather easily. Miami is allowing 32.5 ppg against teams who only average 27.4 and 442 ypg against teams that average just 399. They have been especially bad against the run, where they are allowing 5.1 yards/carry versus teams that are only averaging 4.4.

Adding to all of this is a nice system backing a fade of the RedHawks. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are getting outscored by 7+ points in the 1st half after playing in a game where 60 combined points were scored are just 28-58 ATS since 1992. That's a 67% system in favor of the Bobcats. Take Ohio!

3* Pac-12 Total Annihilator on Oregon St/Washington UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in this Pac-12 matchup. Four of the last five games between these two teams in Washington have seen a combined score of 47 points or less. The one exception was a double-overtime game in 2010, where the two teams combined for 27 points in extra time (42 at end of regulation).

Whenever Washington plays at home, it's usually a good idea to expect the game to finish below the mark. The Huskies have seen 4 of their 5 home games finish UNDER in 2014 and 13 of the last 17 overall.

Both of these offenses are way down from last year. Washington is averaging just 30.3 ppg after putting up 37.9 ppg in 2013. The 30.3 ppg for Washington is also misleading, as they played a soft non-conference schedule that saw them score 44 on Illinois, 45 on Georgia State and 59 on Eastern Washington. Oregon State averaged 34.8 ppg last season, yet are scoring just 27.6 ppg in 2014. The key here is that the Huskies are a better defensive team at home and Oregon State's offense isn't nearly as effective on the road. Adding to this is that the UNDER is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 home games vs excellent passing teams averaging 274 or more yards/game.

There's also a strong system in play. The Under is 62-32 over the last 5 seasons in games with a total set between 49.5 and 56 points, where you have a strong offensive team averaging 390 to 440 ypg (Oregon St) against a team that's allowing 390 to 440 ypg at least 8 games into the season. That's a 66% system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF SEC Total of the of the Month on Missouri/Tennessee UNDER

The books have inflated this total due to both teams coming off a high scoring game.The Volunteers and Kentucky combined for 66 points, which was their third straight game that finished over the total. The previous two being a 20-34 final against Alabama, 45-42 to South Carolina, and 50-16 over Kentucky.

Missouri on the other hand played in a game last week against Texas A&M where 61 combined points were scored. The Tigers have been more of a defensive minded team and haven't seen consecutive games go over the total since the opening two weeks when they put up big numbers in wins over South Dakota State and Toledo.

The big here is that both of these teams have been much better defensively than offensively in 2014. The Tigers are 21st in total defense (340.6 ypg) compared to just 107th in total offense (355.8 ypg). Missouri is also giving up just 20.1 ppg against teams that average 29.2 Adding to this is the Tigers allow just 3.4 yards per rush against teams giving up 4.7 and only 6 yards per pass against teams who average 7.2.  

Tennessee is 37th in total defense (363.7 ypg) compared to just 81st in total offense (381.5 ypg) and are giving up just 24.1 ppg against teams who average 31.4 per game. They allow just 4.1 yards per rush against teams gaining 4.8 and 6.9 yards per pass against quarterbacks who normally throw for 7.4.  

Adding to the offensive struggles of these two teams is that Missouri averages 4.6 yards per rush against teams that give up 4.5 and throws for 6.1 against teams that allow 6.9, while the Vols gain 3.5 yards per rush against teams allowing 3.8 and throw for 6.5 against teams who give up the same.

Anytime you can get two average offenses with excellent defenses, more times than not it's going to lead to a lower scoring game than expected. UNDER is 13-5 in Missouri's last 18 games off an upset win as an underdog and 16-5 in Tennessee head coach Butch Jones' last 21 when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. These two trends combine to form a 74% (29-10) system on this one to finish below the mark. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAAF No Limit Game of the Year on Baylor -

Don't be scared of the big number in this one. Baylor needs to look impressive in victory to increase their chances of making the 4-team playoff and the Bears are going to be out form serious revenge against the Cowboys, who spoiled their perfect season a year ago in an ugly 17-49 loss in Stillwater.

Oklahoma State simply has no hopes of making this a game and I look for the Bears to show no mercy. The Cowboys have lost 4 straight with all 4 losses coming by at least 21 points. They have scored 14 or less points in each of their last 4 games, while allowing no less than 28. Baylor has the nation's No. 1 ranked offense in the country, averaging 50.1 ppg. Oklahoma State simply isn't capable of scoring enough to cover this massive spread, especially on the road.

Baylor has been one of the most dominant teams in the country when they the field at McLane Stadium. The Bears have won 14 straight at home and are a ridiculous 18-2 ATS in their last 20 home games.

You might think that the fact that Oklahoma State has dropped 5 straight against the spread that they would be a smart play, but that's not the case. Road underdogs who have failed to cover the spread in 5 consecutive games against an opponent who covered the spread in their last game are 13-35 ATS over the last 10 seasons.

We also see a great system in play backing the Bears of a bye. Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points who are playing with 2 or more weeks of rest are 41-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Bears. Take Baylor!

4* Pac-12 NCAAF Game of the Month on Cal +

The Golden Bears have been waiting for their chance to get revenge against rival Stanford and 2014 certainly feels like the opportune time for Cal to get some payback. While both teams come in at 5-5 on the season, this is a big improvement for the Golden Bears and a major disappointment for Stanford. It's a big reason why Cal has been a profitable bet (7-3 ATS), while the Cardinal have lost their backers money (4-6 ATS).

One of the big keys here is that Cal is the home team and anyone who follows college football closely, knows the home dog in these big rivalry games is typically the smart play. Adding to this is that Stanford has really struggled on the road. The Cardinal are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS away from home, where they are getting outscored by 10.2 ppg.

The main reason for Stanford's struggles in 2014 has been their offense. The Cardinal are only averaging 23.9 ppg and that number drops down to just 15.0 ppg on the road. Even Cal's horrible defense is capable of shutting down this poor offense.

It's the exact opposite on the other side of the ball, where Cal has been an offensive juggernaut, averaging 40.7 ppg, while Stanford is only allowing 16.5 ppg. However, the Cardinal defense is allowing 25.2 ppg on the road. I look for the Golden Bears to put up some points and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won this game outright.

The Golden Bears have thrived in the role of a small underdog. Cal is 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Stanford on the other hand is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after a contest where they forced 1 or less turnovers and have lost these games by an average of 5.3 ppg. These two trends combine to form a solid 71% (36-15) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

3* NCAAF Week 13 Undervalued Underdog on Iowa +

This is a great spot to back the Hawkeyes at home as a double-digit underdog, as Wisconsin has been overvalued after that dominant 59-24 rout of Nebraska that saw running back Melvin Gordon run for an FBS-record 408 yards. Iowa does have an ugly 37-point loss at Minnesota, but their other two defeats have come by a combined 10 points.

The Hawkeyes are 4-1 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 13.2 ppg. Wisconsin is just 2-2 on the road, where they are only outscoring opponents by 9.2 ppg. Keep in mind they lost at Northwestern 14-20. The same Wildcats team the Hawkeyes destroyed at home 48-7. Not only is Iowa capable of covering this spread, I could see them winning this game outright.

One of the big reasons that I like the Hawkeyes in this contest is they have the talent up front to slow down the Badgers rushing attack. Iowa has three defensive linemen who are up for All Big Ten honors. The Hawkeyes have the 17th ranked defense in the country (324.6 ppg) and are giving up just 124.0 rushing yards/game and only 3.7 yards/carry at home this season. The key here is that Wisconsin doesn't have a passing attack, which is going to allow Iowa to stack the box and keep the running game in check.

Iowa is 22-3 ATS in their last 25 games against excellent rushing teams who are averaging 5.25 or more yards/carry and have won these contests by an average score of 29.8 to 21.8. The Hawkeyes are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games when listed as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points and 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games after a contest where they failed to force a single turnover.

There's also a key system in play that favors a fade of the Badgers. Road favorites that have an excellent run defense that is allowing 100 or less yards/game, after 2 straight games where they rushed for 5.5 or more yards/carry are just 17-47 ATS since 1992. That's a 73% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

3* NCAAF Week 13 Oddsmakers Error on Western Michigan +

Western Michigan has been a covering machine all season, as they come into this game with a ridiculous 9-1 ATS record. No need to worry about the books inflating this line, as they go up against what most would consider a very evenly matched team in in-state rival Central Michigan. In fact, I think the books are undervaluing the Broncos here, as they should be the one favored in this contest.

For me it comes down to how these two teams matchup. It would appear that Central Michigan's defense, which ranks 18th in the country in total defense, would be able to slow down the Broncos' high-powered attack. I don't think that's going to be the case at all. Western Michigan has scored 40+ in 4 of their last 5 games and only twice all season have been held under 20 points. The difference maker will be Western Michigan running back Jarvion Franklin, who has rushed for 1,356 yards and 22 touchdowns.

The key here is that while Western Michigan's offense figures to be able to put up some points, I could see the Chippewas struggling to keep pace. The Broncos also have a strong defense, which should be able to keep Central Michigan's weak offense in check. The Chippewas are only averaging 22.8 ppg at home and Central Michigan's strength offensively is their running game, which plays right into the strength of the Western Michigan defense.

Adding to all of this is a great system. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 off 2 consecutive wins by 10 or more points against a conference opponent on Saturday are 30-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Broncos. Take Western Michigan!

4* C-USA NCAAF Game of the Month on UAB +

As impressive as Marshall has been up to this point in the season, the Thundering Herd are simply way overvalued on the road against UAB. The Blazers only loss this season by more than 20-points came on the road against Arkansas. The Razorbacks are one of the most physical teams in the country and was simply a horrible matchup for UAB. What really impresses me about the Blazers is they more than held their own on the road against Mississippi State, losing to the Bulldogs by a final of just 34-47. The stat that really stands out is that UAB outgained Mississippi State 548-516 (+32) in that contest.

Another big reason that I like the Blazers is the scheduling aspect of this game is in their favor. UAB was off last week, giving them a full two weeks to prepare for the Thundering Herd. Marshall on the other hand is coming off a huge game against Rice, who upset the Thundering Herd the previous season in the C-USA Championship Game. That was a lot bigger game than most people realize and I look for Marshall to suffer a bit of a letdown on the road.

While Marshall is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road this season, they have historically not been a good road team, as they are just 36-60 (38%) ATS over their last 96 road games. Given the pressure starting to really mount on finishing with an undefeated record and off that big game against Rice, this is a spot where I feel the Herd will fail to win in blowout fashion. It's also worth noting that Marshall lost 31-38 in their last trip to UAB. Adding to that is the Thundering Herd are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 125 or less passing yards in 2 straight games. Take UAB!

4* Mountain West Conference Total of the Month on San Diego St/Air Force UNDER

The books have set the total too high in Friday's Mountain West matchup between Air Force and San Diego State. These two teams have a history of scoring less than the mark the books set. In the last 17 meetings, 11 have finished below the total, including 5 of the last 6. I'm expecting the trend to continue as both of these teams come in playing extremely well on the defensive side of the ball. 

Air Force comes in ranked 47th in total defense (378.2 ypg) and the strength of their stop unit is their run defense, which ranks 37th, allowing 140.2 ypg. That's important to note because the Aztecs offensively almost exclusively rely on the run. San Diego State ranks 34th in rushing (205.4 ypg), compared to just 107th in passing (181.8 ypg). 

San Diego State has even better overall numbers defensively. The Aztecs are 30th in total defense, giving up just 349.1 ypg. While they are giving up more rushing yards than passing yards, they a lot of that has to do with the teams they have played. They are giving up just 151 rushing yards/game against teams averaging 171 ypg and allowing only 3.8 yards/carry versus teams averaging 4.3 ypc. 

The other big key to this game finishing below the mark is that both of these teams are one-dimensional offensively with the running game. Even if it doesn't work, both are going to keep pounding the rock. That's a perfect scenario for a low scoring game, as it should lead to a lot of empty possessions that eat up a lot clock. 

The UNDER is 20-7 in San Diego State's last 27 games against poor passing teams who are averaging 150 or less yards/game through air, 13-4 in their last 17 off a win and 9-1 in their last 10 overall. These trends combine to form a 78% (42-12) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Thursday Night NCAAF Game of the Year on K-State +

This is a great spot to back Kansas State off that ugly 21-point loss at TCU. Few teams in the country rebound better off a loss than the Wildcats. Kansas State is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after a loss and 22-7 ATS if you go back and look at their last 29 games following a defeat of 20 or more points.

Kansas State still has a lot to play for. If they win out they would at worst earn a share of the Big 12 title and could win it outright if TCU gets upset by either Texas or Iowa State. West Virginia on the other hand has little to get excited about with 3 conference losses. They certainly didn't look motivated in their 16-33 defeat at Texas last time out and you have to wonder how much they really care about winning this game.

One of the keys here is that both of these teams were off last week and each will have had 11 days to prepare for this contest. This might seem like it wouldn't be an advantage for either team, but that's not the case. Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder is a much better coach than West Virginia's Dana Holgerson and does a much better job of getting his players to excel with extra preparation. Kansas State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games with more than a week to prepare, while West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in the same time frame.

West Virginia is just 1-7 in their last 8 home games after playing their last game on the road and 2-9 in their last 11 off a conference loss. The Mountaineers also fall into a bad money line system. Teams with a money line of +135 to -155 who have gone under the total by 21 or more points in their last 3 games that have a marginal winning record (51% to 60%) against an opponent with a winning record are 5-24 over the last 10 seasons. That's a 83% system in favor of a Wildcats victory. Take Kansas State!

3* N Illinois/Ohio MAC Weekday Main Event on Ohio +

After taking a closer look at this matchup, I not only like Ohio to keep it close enough to cover, but I got the Bobcats winning outright at home. Northern Illinois continues to be overvalued based on what they have done in previous seasons. The Huskies are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. The public is going to jump on Northern Illinois at -3 without even looking into this matchup.

There's plenty of reason to like Ohio as a 3-point dog. The Bobcats have a big advantage in the scheduling department, as they come in off a bye, while Northern Illinois has to rebound from a hard fought 27-24 home win over Toledo. This is also a great matchup for Ohio. It's no secret that the Huskies offense is centered around their running game. Northern Illinois is 14th in rushing (261.7 ypg) compared to 98th in passing (190.3 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the Bobcats defense, which is a respectable 32nd versus the run (135.4 ypg) compared to 108th against the pass (273.5 ypg). Adding to this is the fact that Ohio's defense is even better at home, where they are giving up just 83 ypg and 3.1 yards/carry.

Not only do I look for the Ohio defense to keep Northern Illinois' offense in check, but the Bobcats should be able to take advantage of a weak Huskies defense. Northern Illinois comes in ranked 65th against the run (164.2 ypg) and 79th versus the pass (235.8 ypg). In their last 5 games they are allowing 220.8 rushing yards/game. Why is that important? Ohio is 5-0 this season when they rush for 150 or more yards and 0-5 when they fail to eclipse that mark.

The Bobcats are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games when they come in having won 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games when playing against a top level team that has won more than 75% of their games on the season.

We also see a great system in play telling us to fade Northern Illinois. Road favorites who are an excellent offensive team (440+ ypg) against an average offensive team (330 to 390 ypg) after a contest where they allowed 6.25 or more yards/play are just 6-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 81% system in favor of the Bobcats. Take Ohio!

3* NCAAF Late Night Bailout on Oregon State +

As impressive as Arizona State's 55-31 win over Notre Dame was last week, I believe it has them overvalued in what should be a difficult road test for the Sun Devils. Oregon State may seem like an obvious choice to go against after losing 4 straight, including a surprising 32-39 home loss to Washington State last week. As bad as their season has turned, this team is going to come out as motivated and focused as they have all season, as they have a chance to spoil the Sun Devils hopes of making the 4-team playoff. They also still need two more wins to become bowl eligible and with Oregon left on the schedule this is game they know they need to win.

Reser Stadium can be a difficult place for opposing teams to play, especially late in the season, and I'm expecting a rowdy crowd to show up and help install some energy and confidence into this Beavers team. Oregon State is 26-13 ATS in their last 39 home games in weeks 10 through 13.

While Oregon State is going to treat this like their biggest game of the season, it's going to be extremely difficult for Arizona State to match their intensity. The Sun Devils are riding on cloud nine right now and this is a big dropoff in competition after playing their last 6 games against the likes of UCLA, USC, Stanford, Washington, Utah and Notre Dame. Only the Huskies weren't ranked at the time they played them.

Adding to the previous trend, Oregon State is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games after throwing for 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games, 22-9 ATS in their last 31 off a close conference loss by 7 points or less and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a upset conference loss as a home favorite. All these trends combine to form a 71% (81-33) system in favor of the Beavers. Take Oregon State!

5* Mountain West Conference Game of the Year on Boise State -13

Boise State should have no problem beating San Diego State by at least two touchdowns at home. The Broncos are a perfect 4-0 at home this season and 65-3 dating back to 2004. Not only will Boise State be out for major revenge following last year's 31-34 overtime loss at San Diego State and 2012's 19-21 home loss, they need to keep winning to keep pace with Colorado State, who is leading the MWC Mountain division at 5-1. With a 37-24 win over the Rams already under their belt, the Broncos simply need to win out to make and host the MWC Championship Game.

It's no secret that Boise State is a great home team, but the big reason why I like them to win by at least two touchdowns is the Aztecs are not a good road team. San Diego State's 1-4 on the road this season and their only win came against New Mexico, who is 3-6 on the season.

I also like the matchup for Boise State. The Aztecs offer little to no threat in the passing game, which means they are going to have to be able to run the ball effectively to keep this game close. I don't think that's going to be the case. The Broncos are allowing just 86 yards and 3.2 yards/carry at home. In their last home game they held a talented BYU rushing attack to just 63 yards on 26 attempts.

The big key to go with Boise State's ability to shutdown San Diego State's offense is they should have no problem scoring against the Aztecs. The Broncos have scored at least 37 points each of their last 4 games. Once they establish a lead early, it should only continue to grow, as San Diego State is not a team that's capable of playing from behind.

Boise State is 28-9 ATS in their last 37 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, 16-3 ATS in their last 19 after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 straight games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) with an average margin of victory of 49.8 to 18.4!

Adding to all of this is a big time system. Home favorites who are an excellent offensive team (440+ yards/game) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 yards/game) after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their last two games are 29-7 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 81% system in favor of the Broncos. Take Boise State!

3* NCAAF Week 12 Total Annihilator on North Texas/UTEP UNDER

This game should fly UNDER the total of 52.5. The only thing that has kept North Texas competitive is their defense and UTEP is doing everything they can to keep their defense off the field.

North Texas comes in ranked 112th in the country in total offense (334.2 ypg). The Mean Green simply don't have the offensive weapons to put up a lot of points. Defensively this team plays extremely hard under Dan McCarney and I would expect to see one of their best efforts against the Miners after last weeks 31-10 win over Florida Atlantic.

UTEP head coach Sean Kugler knows that his team can't try and beat teams in shootouts, which is why his focus offensively has been to use the running game and sustain drives. The Miners come in averaging 45 rush attempts to just 23 pass attempts. That plays right into the strength of the North Texas defense, which is only allowing 3.9 yards/rush on the season. This all points to a lot of long time killing drives for UTEP and there's no guarantee they will be able to finish them off with points.

As for North Texas, if they can simply score 20 points it would be considered a success, especially on the road where they are averaging just 18.2 ppg. Adding to this is the fact that the Miners have put up better numbers defensively at home and should be highly motivated after last year's ugly 7-41 loss to the Mean Green.

The UNDER is 15-3 in North Texas' last 18 games off a win by 10 or more points and 9-2 in their last 11 with a total set at 49.5 to 56 points. The UNDER is also 5-1 in UTEP's last 6 games against a team with a losing record and 7-3-1 in their last 11 conference games.

Adding to all of this is a big time system. The UNDER is 58-26 since 1992 in games where you have a total of 49.5 to 56 points where one of the teams comes in off a home conference win who has only won between 25% to 40% of their games on the season (North Texas). That's a 69% long-term system. Take the UNDER!

4* SEC Game of the Month on Arkansas -

I believe this is a perfect spot to back Arkansas at home. The Razorbacks come into this contest having lost 17 straight conference games dating back to 2012. It’s a streak that head coach Brett Bielema and his players are desperate to put to rest. Not only is Arkansas fighting for a conference win, they are trying to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. In order for that to happen the Razorbacks need to win two of their final three. With a home game against Ole Miss and road showdown at Missouri, this is a game they simply can’t afford to lose.

What makes Arkansas such a strong play is that this is a huge letdown spot for LSU, who comes in off a crushing 13-20 overtime loss to Alabama. The Tigers had a 13-10 lead with less than a minute to play in regulation, only to allow the Crimson Tide to go 55 yards in 50 seconds to kick a game-tying field goal and go on to win in overtime. There’s simply nothing left for LSU to play for down the stretch. They have already secured a bowl bid with 7 wins and are no longer in the race for the SEC West title. There’s just no way they can get up for this game after their two biggest games of the season at home against Ole Miss and Alabama.

Adding even more value here for Arkansas, is they come into this game off a bye, giving them two full weeks to prepare for LSU. Getting extra time to prepare for a game likes this is huge for the Razorbacks, especially with the Tigers coming off such physical games against the Crimson Tide and Rebels.

Another big key to backing Arkansas is that LSU is no where near as strong a team on the road as they are at home and it’s something that I think is getting overlooked here due to the Tigers having only played two true road games to this point in the season. They got embarrassed at Auburn 7-41 and were fortunate to escape with a 30-27 win at Florida.

Arkansas is also a better team than they get credit for. They lost in overtime to Texas A&M, by just 1-point to Alabama, 7-points to Georgia and 7-points to Mississippi State. Their only defeat by more than a touchdown was a season-opening 21-45 loss at Auburn. The Razorbacks could very easily be sitting at 4-1 instead of 0-5 in the SEC and would likely be laying close to a touchdown if that were the case.

Adding to all of this is a big time system. Home teams who have allowed 7-points or less in the 1st half of each of their last 2 games, in a matchup involving two teams who are outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg at least 8 games into the season are 80-42 ATS since 1992. That's a 66% system in favor of the Razorbacks. Take Arkansas!

4* Big Ten Game of the Month on Iowa -

This is a great spot to jump on the Hawkeyes after last week's embarrassing 14-51 road loss to Minnesota. I believe it has Iowa extremely undervalued against an inferior Illinois squad. Few Big Ten teams bounce back from a defeat better than the Hawkeyes.

Iowa has gone 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games following a loss, including a perfect 2-0 mark this season. After losing to in-state rival Iowa State, Iowa went on the road and beat Pittsburgh 24-20 as a 6.5-point underdog. The just recently followed up a 31-38 loss at Maryland with a 48-7 thrashing of Northwestern as a mere 3-point favorite. Adding even more value here is the fact that Iowa is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after a loss by 40 or more points.

I believe the huge motivational angle and far superior talent outweighs the fact that Illinois will be coming off a bye and getting back starting quarterback Wes Lunt. Outside of their shocking upset win at home over Minnesota, Illinois has lost each of their other 4 conference games by 10-points, including an 11-point home defeat to a bad Purdue squad.

Even after allowing 51 points and 429 yards of total offense to the Golden Gophers last week, Iowa still comes into this game allowing just 23.4 points and 334.4 ypg. Don't let one bad game fool you into thinking the Hawkeyes don't have a quality defense.

Iowa's biggest weakness defensively has been stopping the run, as they have allowed 200+ yards on the ground in three of their last 4 games. They won't have any problem slowing down the Illini's ground game. Illinois is averaging just 106 yards/game and 3.4 yards/carry against defenses that on average are allowing 148 and 4.0.

Where I believe Iowa will take over this game is when they have the ball on offense. Illinois is awful defensively. They are allowing 36.7 ppg and are giving up a whopping 263 yards/game on the ground. Iowa is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS when they rush for at least 175 yards this season and all 3 wins have come by at least 14 points.

Adding to all of this is a nice system. Road teams who allowed 42 or more points in their last game against an opponent off a loss by 28 or more points are 67-33 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

3* Tulsa/UCF American Athletic Main Event on UCF -

After taking a closer look at this contest, I like the Knights to make easy work of Tulsa. UCF comes in off an ugly 29-37 loss at Connecticut, which was their first conference defeat of the season. The Knights are still very much alive in the AAC, as a win here would put them in a 3-way tie for first with Memphis and Cincinnati.

One of the big reasons I like UCF to bounce back and win here by at least 3 touchdowns against Tulsa, is the Knights come in off a bye. Head coach George O'Learly has certainly had his players attention after what took place against the Huskies and I look for UCF to come out with one of their best performances of the season.

The matchup certainly points to this game being a blowout. UCF comes into this game 8th in the country in total defense (308.3 ypg) and have done an excellent job against both the run (119.4 ppg) and the pass (188.9 ypg). Tulsa needs their offense to put up a lot of points to be competitive, because their defense is downright awful. The Golden Hurricane come in 107th against the run (216.1 ypg) and 98th versus the pass (267.7 ypg). Overall the Knights' offense hasn't put up great numbers, but they are trending in the right direction. UCF is averaging 31.5 points and 447.5 yards over their last two games.

Another big key here is the Golden Hurricane have nothing to play for sitting at 2-7. There's also a strong system backing up a fade of Tulsa based on the line and their recent performances. Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points who have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and have won 25% or less of their games overall and are playing a team with a winning record are just 28-49 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Knights. Take UCF!

3* East Carolina/Cincinnati Total DOMINATOR on UNDER

It's easy to look at these two offenses and assume that this game is going to fly over the total, but I don't believe that will be the case at all. Conditions for this game are far from ideal for a shootout. Temperature at kickoff is expect to be just 30 degrees with a wind chill in the low 20's.

Cold weather typically hurts the passing game more than anything and both of these offenses are centered around their ability to pick up yards through the air. Cincinnati ranks 15th in passing (308.5 ypg), compared to just 73rd in rushing (157.4 ypg). It's even more drastic for East Carolina, who is 3rd in the country in passing (361.3 ypg). Adding to this is the fact that the Pirates are 8th in the country, giving up just 97 ypg against the run. Cincinnati's run defense hasn't been great overall, but they are allowing just 3.9 ypg at home and East Carolina leading rusher Breon Allen is playing at less than 100%.

The other aspect here that I believe will lead to a low-scoring game is the magnitude of this game. Both of these teams are 3-1 inside conference play and with Memphis leading the way at 4-1, a loss here would be devastating for both teams' chances of winning the AAC. Big games like this tend to see a lot more effort defensively and with the conditions I expect that to hold true.

There's a nice system in play here. UNDER is 31-11 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total set at 63 or more points after the first month of the season with a team that has gone under the total by 35 or more combined points in their last 3 games (East Carolina). That's a 75% system. Take the UNDER!

3* Ball State/UMass NCAAF Total Annihilator on OVER

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in tonight's MAC showdown between Ball State and UMass.These two teams are not familiar with one another, as they haven't played since 1988. That's a big advantage for the two offenses and with two poor defenses it should lead to a lot of points.

The Minutemen come in averaging 30.8 ppg behind an offensive attack that ranks 6th in the country in passing at 331.2 ypg. Ball State is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61.4% of their attempts on the road and are giving up a ridiculous 259 yards and 5.7 yards/carry on the ground away from home. Add in the Cardinals not exactly being motivated for this contest after a crushing loss to Northern Illinois and UMass' offense should have no problem sustaining drives and putting points on the scoreboard.

The other big key here is that the reason the Minutemen are 2-7 with such a potent offense, is they are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. UMass is giving up 35.0 points and 458.4 yards per game on the season. They aren't any better against the run (200.6 ypg, 97th) than they are the pass (257.8 ypg, 92nd). Even though Ball State's offense ranks just 102nd with 357.8 ypg, they are going to be able to move the football against the poor UMass defense.

The Minutemen have seen their games go OVER the total in 7 of 9 contests this year and all 6 of their games following a loss. The OVER is also 7-2 in Ball State's last 9 games following a double-digit loss at home and 7-2 in their last 9 conference games.

We also see a nice system in play. The OVER is 64-29 over the last 10 seasons in a game where you have a total of 56.5 to 63 points with a team that is averaging 400 or more yards/game (UMass) that has accumulated 450 or more total yards in each of their last 4 contests. That's a 69% long-term system. Take the OVER!

3* Alabama/LSU SEC Total Annihilator on UNDER

I believe the total for this game has been inflated due to last year's game, which saw a combined 55 points. Each of the previous 5 meetings between these two teams resulted in games that saw 45 or fewer points, which is what I'm expecting on Saturday.

Rivalry games almost always tend to be lowering scoring than what you would expect and I believe that's going to be the case here. While Alabama has the 12th ranked offense in the country (508.9 ypg) and are 19th in scoring (36.5 ppg), they have not been the same team offensively on the road. Alabama's averages drop down to just 24.5 points and 407 yards per game away from home. LSU on the other hand is only giving up 8.5 ppg and 279 ypg at home. 

On the flip side of this, Alabama's defense should have no problem shutting down an LSU offense that is pretty one dimensional. The Tigers come in 26th in rushing (225.7 ypg), but are just 98th in passing (188.6 ypg). They average 49 rush attempts to just 21 attempts a game. That plays right into the strength of the Crimson Tide defense, which comes in 2nd in the country against the run (78.1 ypg). Alabama has also allowed just 2.7 yards/carry against opponents who average 4.3. LSU is only gaining 4.6 ypc against teams that are giving up 4.3. That's a pretty good sign that the Crimson Tide's defense will dominate this game when they are on the field.

Another huge factor to this matchup and it finishing below the total, is the fact that both of these teams come in off a bye. Each has had a full two weeks to prepare for the opposition and that should give the edge to the defenses.

UNDER is 27-12 in Alabama's last 39 games against teams who average 200 or more rushing yards/game and 22-8 in their last 30 off 3 straight conference wins. The UNDER is also 10-2 in LSU's last 12 home games off a bye and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 off a close conference win by 7 points or less.

We also have a strong system in play. The UNDER is 35-13 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 42.5 to 49 points when the road team is coming off a bye. Combine that with LSU's 10-2 UNDER record at home off a bye and we have a Dynamite 75% (45-15) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Ohio State/Michigan State Big Ten Main Event on Michigan State -

I know the Buckeyes are going to be out for revenge, but without Braxton Miller at quarterback I just don’t see Ohio State being able to go on the road and get a win. While Ohio State has a number of impressive blowout wins, they have also played one of the easier schedules of any Power 5 conference team.

I just don’t feel that the Buckeyes are as strong as their 7-1 record would indicate, largely due to the fact that they haven't faced a ranked team all season. Michigan State on the other hand has went up against both Oregon and Nebraska. Had they not ran out of gas they would have beat the Ducks on the road and they dominated the Huskers (Nebraska scored late to make it look close).

The two teams that the Buckeyes have struggled against are Virginia Tech and Penn State, two defensive-minded teams. Also, the only two teams that Ohio State has played that currently rank 82nd or better in total defense.  It’s a big reason why I don’t think Ohio State will be any match for the Spartans. Michigan State comes into this contest with the 5th ranked defense in the country (279.4 ypg) and are excelling against both the run (95.4 ypg, 6th) and the pass (184.0 ypg, 15th).

What separates the Spartans from the likes of the Hokies and Nittany Lions, is the fact that Michigan State has one of the best offenses in the country. The Spartans are 10th in total offense (515.3 ypg) and 5th in scoring (45.5 ppg).

You also have to give Michigan State a big advantage playing at home, where they haven’t lost since 2012. The other big key here that can’t get overlooked is the fact that the Spartans come into this game off a bye, giving them a full two weeks to prepare for Ohio State and what they like to do on both sides of the ball.

You also have to factor in that while Michigan State has an experienced quarterback in Connor Cook, the Buckeyes will be counting on freshman JT Barrett to deliver on the road in the biggest game of his young career.

Michigan State is a dominant 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams who are averaging 31.0 or more points/game and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 against teams who are averaging 230 or more rushing yards/game.

There’s also a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who come in off 3 straight conference wins against an opponent off 2 straight conference wins are just 16-42  ATS since 1992. That's a 72% system in favor of the Spartans. Take Michigan State!

5* College Football Total of the Year on Florida/Vanderbilt UNDER

The Gators come into this game off a shocking 38-20 win over rival Georgia, has given this team a new sense of life, especially on defense. What they did to the Bulldogs offense was impressive and I look for them to carry that momentum over with another strong defensive effort against Vanderbilt.

Stopping the Commodores offense doesn't exactly figure to be too difficult for the Gators. Vanderbilt comes into this game ranked 113th in the country in scoring (19.9 ppg) and 117th in total offense (294.2 ypg). In the Commodores last three conference games, they have totaled a combined 38 points. I believe it's going to be a struggle for them to reach double-digits, which is why I love the UNDER in this matchup. 

As good as Florida's offense was against Georgia, I'm not sold that their all the sudden an offensive juggernaut. The Gators attempted a mere 6 passes the entire game, as they rushed it 60 times for 418 yards. They clearly don't trust Treon Harris throwing. That sets up perfect for the UNDER. Florida should dominate the time of possession, which will limit the possessions and have them running out the clock late.

The big key here is that I just don't see the Gators playing with the same intensity on offense as they did last week against Georgia. There's also not as big a need to score against a team like Vanderbilt. Even if Florida comes out strong offensively, I don't see them scoring enough to push this over the total. The Commodores are going to play hard at home. Vanderbilt is only giving up 3.9 yards/carry at home, compared to 4.4 on the season. It's also a lot easier to defend the run when you know there's not a threat of the pass.

UNDER is 5-2 in Vanderbilt's last 7 conference games and 10-1 in their last 11 home games after they allowed 6.5 or more yards/play in their last game. These trends combine to form a solid 83% (15-3) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Week 11 Total No Brainer on Louisville/Boston College UNDER

I believe we are catching some great value on the total here based on last week's games for both of these teams. Louisville put up 31 points against Florida State and Boston College hung 33 versus Virginia Tech. Both of these teams are built around their defense and I'm expecting to see both of these offenses struggle to do much of anything on Saturday.

Boston College comes in ranked 12th in total defense (312.5 ypg), while Louisville is 6th (280.6 ypg). The big key here is that both of these defenses excel against the run. The Eagles are 4th in the country (88.9 ypg) and are giving up just 2.9 yards/carry against teams averaging 3.8. The Cardinals are 3rd in the country against the run (78.7 ypg) and are allowing a mere 2.7 yards/carry. This is important to note, because both of these teams lean heavily on their running games. Louisville averages 39 rush attempts a game, while Boston College averages 50.

This should lead to a lot of empty possessions that eat up clock. Adding to this is the fact that when these two teams to put together a drive, there's a good chance it will end in a field goal. 18 of Louisville's 32 offensive touchdowns have come on the ground and 24 of Boston College's 32 have come via the run.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Louisville's last 9 road games, 12-3 in their last 15 versus conference opponents and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 after playing in a game where 70 or more total points were scored. The UNDER is also 30-12 in Boston College's last 42 when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4, 36-18 in their last 54 against teams outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game and 20-7-1 in their last 28 after a win.

There's also a strong system in play. The UNDER is 148-88 over the last 10 seasons in a game involving two good teams who are outgaining opponents by 0.6 to 1.2 yards/play at least 8 games into the season. That's a 63% system. Take the UNDER!

3* UCLA/Washington Pac-12 Total Dominator on UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring game today between the Huskies and Bruins. We just saw UCLA play in a game against Arizona with a combined score of 17-7. I know one performance doesn't make a season, but I look for the Bruins to carry over that momentum on defense against a Washington offense that is averaging just 22.4 ppg inside conference play.

The Huskies have the 94th ranked offense in the country and are almost exclusively looking to run the football. Washington is 49th in rushing 185.4 ypg) compared to just 104th in passing (179.4 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the UCLA defense. The Bruins are 100th against the pass (257.4 ypg), but are a respectable 58th against the run (157.4 ypg).

On the flip side of this, the Huskies might come in ranked just 76th in total defense (409.7 ypg), but they are 53rd in scoring (24.4 ppg) and 17th in total defense. The big key here for me is that Washington has a dominant defensive line that should be able to take advantage of a weak UCLA offensive line, especially playing at home in a big night game. Hundley isn't going to have to time to pass and it's going to force the Bruins to turn to the running game.

UNDER is 3-0-1 in UCLA's 4 games this season against a team with a winning record, 11-1 in Washington's last 12 home games against a team with a winning record, 8-1 in the Bruins last 9 road games, 11-3 in Washington's last 14 home games on Saturday and a perfect 8-0 in the Huskies last 8 home games after they played in a contest where 60 or more total points were scored. These trends combine to form a 91% (41-4) system. Take the UNDER!

4* West Virginia/Texas Big 12 Game of the Month on Texas +

I think the Mountaineers are getting a little too much respect on the road against a Texas team that has got better as the season has progressed, especially coming off last week's heartbreaking 30-31 home loss to TCU. The defeat essentially knocked West Virginia out of the Big 12 title race, leaving them little to play for down the stretch. It's also a bit of a trap game, as they have another huge game at home on deck against No. 7 Kansas State.

Texas enters off a 34-13 road win over Texas Tech, easily covering as a 4-point favorite. The Long Horns finished with 469 yards of total offense, with over 200 yards on the ground (241) and through the air (228). Texas' powerful rushing attack figures to be a problem for West Virginia, who are giving up 215 ypg and 5.6 ypc on the road this season, well above their season averages of 389 ypg and 4.6 ypc. Simply put, the Mountaineers are not the same defensively on the road than they are at home.

Not only is this a bad matchup for the West Virginia defense, but there's reason to believe their offense will struggle to find their rhythm. The Mountaineers come in with the 11th ranked passing attack, but that's negated by the Longhorns 9th ranked pass defense. Texas is ranks 6th in yards allowed per attempt at 5.62.

The Longhorns have come close to beating a couple ranked teams this season, losing 17-20 at then No. 12 UCLA and 26-31 to then No. 11 Oklahoma. They enter this contest having lost 7 straight against ranked foes. That should serve as more than enough motivation.

West Virginia is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 170 or less passing yards in their previous game. Texas on the other hand is a strong 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after gaining more than 450 total yards. These trends combine to form a nice 79% (15-4) system in favor of the Longhorns. Take Texas!

5* Big Ten Game of the Year on Iowa - 

While these two teams come in with identical 6-2 records, with a 3-1 mark inside Big 10 play, I don't think these are equal teams. Like most of Kirk Ferentz' teams at Iowa, the Hawkeyes are hitting their stride when it matters the most. Iowa returned from their bye last week with their best performance of the season, dominating Northwestern 48-7, a team that historically given them a lot of trouble. The Hawkeyes had a ridiculous 303 edge in total yards against a Wildcats team that some impressive wins over the likes of Wisconsin and Penn State.

Minnesota on the other hand is returning from their bye off a bad loss to Illinois, which has remained the Fighting Illini's only win inside conference play. They also struggled the previous week at home against a bad Purdue squad, edging out a 39-38 win. The same Boilermaker team Iowa beat on the road 24-10. Minnesota did beat Northwestern at home 24-17, but they were outgained in the contest by 119 yards. The Golden Gophers are simply headed in the wrong direction and overvalued right now due to an easy schedule.

The Hawkeyes have dominated this series the past couple of years. Iowa won 23-7 at Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite last year and 31-13 as a 6.5-point favorite in 2012.

One of the reasons Iowa has had success against the Golden Gophers, is Minnesota features a run-heavy offense (216 ypg, 32nd). Iowa is 38-15 ATS in their last 53 games against teams who average 200 or more rushing yards/game. The Hawkeyes come in ranked 37th in the country versus the run, giving up just 137.4 ypg and only 3.8 yards/carry. Minnesota has the 118th worst pass offense (140.5 ypg). If they can't run the football their offense struggles to score.

We also see a strong system in play on the Hawkeyes. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are a strong offensive team (390 to 440 yards/game) against an average offensive teams (330 to 390 yards/game), after allowing 3.75 or less yards/play in their last contest are 24-4 ATS since 1992. That's a 86% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

5* Mountain West Total of the Year on Wyoming/Utah St UNDER

Anytime you see a low total like this, the publics’ first reaction is to take the over, especially after they see both teams put up big numbers offensively last time out. It’s usually a good sign that the value is with the UNDER and I definitely feel like that’s the case in this matchup.

Utah State is only averaging 27.6 ppg on the season and were fortunate to put up as many points as they did last week against Hawaii. The Aggies not only had a defensive touchdown, but three of their four offensive touchdowns came on plays of 35+ yards. Starting quarterback Kent Myers, who is 4th on the depth chart and playing because of injury, went 14 of 15 passing with 3 touchdowns. While Utah State may have found a gem in Myers, he’s not going to be that efficient in back-to-back games.

Wyoming is only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 59.2% of their attempts for just 5.7 yards/completion at home this season. The Cowboys are also allowing just 17.7 ppg at home, compared to 30.6 ppg on the road. It’s also worth noting that if you take away the 48 points Wyoming allowed to Oregon and 56 they gave up to Michigan State, they go from giving up 30.6 ppg to just 24.4 ppg.

The Aggies defensively are a solid unit and have been equally as impressive at home as they have on the road. Utah State ranks 26th in the country in scoring defense (21.0 ppg) on the season and are only giving up 21.8 ppg away from home. Adding to this is the fact that they have held each of their last 6 opponents to 20 points or less. There’s every reason to believe the Aggies can shutdown Wyoming’s offense. The Cowboys are just 79th in total offense (382.2 ypg) and 102nd in scoring offense (22.9 ppg).

UNDER is 22-10 in Utah State’s last 32 games against poor defensive teams who are giving up 425 or more total yards/game and 9-2 in their last 11 against strong passing teams that are completing 58% or more of their attempts. UNDER is also 7-3 in Wyoming’s last 10 home games and 12-3 in their last 15 games after throwing for more than 280 yards in their last contest.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 54-22 over the last 10 seasons in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points where you have a road team that is allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game and are off a game where they outrushed their previous opponent by 125 or more yards. That's a 71% system backing this play to finish below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* Clemson/Wake Forest ACC Main Event on Wake Forest +

While Clemson has came out and said that star freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson is cleared to play, early indications are that the Tigers are leaning towards not playing him and saving him up for Georgia Tech next week. I’m not really sure why Clemson would sit him if he’s healthy, but I can’t imagine that it’s sitting well with Wake Forest.

The Tigers are basically saying that we are going to come into your house and beat you with our best offensive player standing on the sidelines. It also shows that Clemson has no respect for this Wake Forest team and that makes it hard to count on them to go out and play up to their full potential.

Talk about motivation. I look for the Demon Deacons to come out inspired and give it everything they have. It’s likely not going to be enough for the win, but it certainly gives them a chance of covering. Without Watson in the lineup the Tigers’ offense hasn’t been near as explosive. Clemson has had to rely heavily on the defense since Watson was injured early in their game against Louisville. They ended up winning that game by a final of 23-17. They followed that up with a 17-13 win at Boston College and a 16-6 home win over Syracuse. Asking the Tigers to win by 21-points when they may not even score that many points is a bit much.

Offensively the Demon Deacons are challenged. There’s no denying it. Wake Forest comes in ranked 122nd in the country in total offense (213.5 ypg) and 125th in scoring (14.8 ppg). However, they play extremely hard defensively. The Demon Deacons rank 39th in total defense (358.3 ypg) and 54th in scoring defense (24.6 ppg). To have that strong of numbers defensively when your offense can barely pickup a first down is impressive.

The big key here is that as much as Clemson has struggled to cover without Watson, no one wants anything to do with backing Wake Forest. The line is inflated with the knowing that the public will be backing the Tigers. 

Clemson is just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 road games against a team with a losing home record (.500 or worse) and are just 2-12 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 5 straight games. These trends combine to form a 76% (23-7) system in favor of the Demon Deacons. Take Wake Forest!

4* MAC Total of the Month on Ball St/Northern Illinois OVER

I'm expecting a lot of offensive fireworks tonight in this MAC showdown between Northern Illinois and Ball State. Both of these teams have struggled defensively in 2014. The Huskies come in 72nd (402.7 ypg), while the Cardinal are 74th (404.4 ypg).

Looking at the Ball State offensive numbers, you might be wondering how the Cardinals will provide enough to push this over the mark. Those don't watch Ball State closely, likely are unware of the quarterback change that's been made. Jack Milas has started each of the last 3 games and has throw for 749 yards and 5 touchdowns. During this stretch the Cardinals have scored no fewer than 32 points.

Milas put 326 yards and 4 scores against Western Michigan, which is a good sign that he can take advantage of a shaky Northern Illinois secondary that ranks 90th versus the pass (246.9 ypg). Just a couple weeks ago we saw the Huskies give up 41 points to a Miami (OH) offense that is currently ranked 92nd in the country in total offense (371.6 ypg).

As for the Northern Illinois offense, they should also have plenty of success moving the football. The Huskies strength is a rushing attack that ranks 13th in the nation at 269.4 ypg. The weakness of the Ball State defense is stopping the run, as they rank a mere 88th in the country, giving up an average of 188.0 ypg on the ground. Northern Illinois is averaging 5.3 yards/carry, while the Cardinals are giving up 5.0 yards/carry against teams who are only averaging 4.4 ypc.

It's also worth noting that if you look back over this series, over the last 4 meetings the fewest these two teams have combined to score is 58 points. Each of the other 3 games saw at least 75. History suggest that when these two teams face off, a lot of points should be expected.

There's a nice system in play as well. The OVER is 35-10 over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a team off a conference road win against an opponent off an upset win by 10 or more points as an underdog. That's a 78% system. Take the OVER!

3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Rout on Akron -

This is an interesting matchup where you have Bowling Green coming into this game off a rare 2-week bye in the regular season. The Falcons last played on Oct. 18, which they lost at home to Western Michigan 14-26. Akron has also had plenty of time to prepare, as they haven’t taken the field since losing at Ball State 21-35 back on Oct. 25.The Zips are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 after a bye, while Bowling Green is just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 off extra rest. There's no question rest is a good thing, but two weeks is a long time between games and I think the Falcons are going to struggle to come out and play well on the road after the long break.

The Zips actually come into this game having lost two straight, but the key thing to note is that starting quarterback Kyle Pohl didn’t play in either of those contests due to a concussion. The difference between Pohl and backup Tommy Woodson is clearly noticeable in the numbers. Pohl has completed 57% of his attempts with 7 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions, while Woodson has only completed 53% of his attempts with 5 touchdowns to 6 interceptions. In the two games that Pohl missed, Akron committed 8 turnovers, which is more than they had in their first 6 games combined.

With Pohl back under center, there’s every reason to believe the Zips can take advantage of a bad Bowling Green defense. The Falcons are giving up 36.5 ppg (112th) and 543.0 ypg (122nd). They have been equally bad at stopping the run (215.0, 102nd) as they have against the pass (328.0 ypg, 125th). Even with Pohl having missed some time, Akron comes in with the 45th ranked pass attack, averaging 257.8 ypg through the air.

On the flip side of things. The Zips should be able to generate enough stops to win here by more than a touchdown. Akron is 41st in the country in total defense, giving up just 360.4 ypg. While Bowling Green has an explosive offense, they are turnover prone (15 turnovers last 7 games) and could be without their second leading receiver in Ronnie Moore, who is questionable with a foot injury. It's also worth noting that quarterback James Knape is dealing with a rib injury. Knape is filling in for starter Matt Johnson.

You also have to fact in the homefield advantage and the rowdy atmosphere that comes with these weekday games. Adding to all of this is the fact that Akron is allowing just 18.2 ppg at home, while Bowling Green is giving up 45.5 ppg on the road. Revenge will weight heavily on the minds of the Zips (lost 5 straight in series) and I expect them to make a statement and take control of the MAC East. Take Akron!

4* Utah St/Hawaii Late Night ATS Bailout on Utah State -

I believe this line has been adjusted way too much due to Utah State being down to their 4th string quarterback, true freshman Kent Myers. I actually was impressed with Myers in his limited action against UNLV. He completed 3 of 5 passes for 45 yards (9.0 yards/completion) and added another 28 yards on 3 rush attempts (9.3 ypc). Utah State won that game 34-20 and it was a bigger blowout than that, as UNLV added a garbage touchdown late to make it look more respectable.

Hawaii has been far from impressive this season. The Warriors only win against an FBS opponent came against Wyoming. They just don't have the talent offensively to be a competitive team. Hawaii comes into the country ranked 107th in total offense (245.0 ypg) and have been awful both running (145.5 ypg) and passing (199.5 ypg).

I wouldn't be surprised if Hawaii failed to score double-digits in this one. Utah State has the 28th ranked defense in the country (333.9 ypg) and have been outstanding against the run (89.0 ypg, 4th). Keep in mind that the Warriors have scored 20 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games. Utah State should be able to give their offense good field position all game and there's a good chance we will see a Aggies defensive touchdown.

There's also a nice system in play on Utah State. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who average 3.5 to 4.3 rushing yards/carry against an average run defense that is giving up 3.5 to 4.3 yards/carry, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in each of their last two games are 32-8 ATS since 1992. That's a 80% system in favor of the Aggies. Take Utah State!

3* NCAAF Undervalued Underdog on San Diego State +

The Aztecs are showing some great value here as a road dog against the Wolf Pack. San Diego State is 3-1 in MAC play with the only loss coming on the road against Fresno State with starting quarterback Quinn Kaehler out with an injury. Not only is Kaehler back in the lineup, but the Aztecs are suppose to get back star wide out Ezell Ruffin, who hasn't played since the second game of the season.

It couldn't come at a better time to get Ruffin back, as they will be going up against the 114th ranked passing attack in Nevada, who is giving up an average of 306.0 ypg. Adding to that is the fact that the Wolf Pack are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.9% of their attempts with an average completion of 7.4 yards.

While the Aztecs offense looks to be able to move the ball at will against this Nevada defense, I think the Wolf Pack are going to struggle to keep pace. Nevada is only averaging 29.9 ppg and will be going up against a stingy San Diego State defense that is ranked 23th in the country in total defense (339.9 ypg).

There's a big time system in play favoring the Aztecs. Road underdogs who are a good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 yards/play) against a poor defensive team (5.6 to 6.2 yards/play) at least 8 games into the season are 32-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the Aztecs. Take San Diego State!

3* Arizona/UCLA Pac-12 Main Event on Arizona +

The Wildcats should not be catching a touchdown on the road against UCLA. The Bruins are no where close to the team that most expected coming into this season. Their only impressive win was on the road against Arizona State, which they benefited from 4 Sun Devils turnovers. UCLA is fortunate to be sitting at 6-2, as 5 of their 6 losses have come by 8-points or less, including a double-overtime win at Colorado last week.

I'll admit that I wasn't sold on Arizona early in the season, but Rich Rodriguez has got this team playing as well as any team in the Pac-12. The Wildcats only conference loss came by just 2-point at home against a USC team that could easily be undefeated in Pac-12 play. Arizona has went on the road and beat Oregon 31-24 and Washington State 59-37. There's no reason they can't go into the Rose Bowl and keep it within 7 points. In fact, I expect them to win this game outright.

It's going to be extremely hard for UCLA to get the separation needed to cover this spread with the way their defense matches up against the Arizona offense. The Bruins come in ranked 100th in the country against the pass (267.8 ypg) and aren't a whole lot better versus the run (167.1 ypg). Arizona has the 6th ranked offense in the country, averaging 348.4 ypg through the air (8th) and 193.4 ypg on the ground (42nd).

There's a nice system backing the Wildcats as well. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a conference win of 10 or more points against an opponent off a road game where both teams scored at least 31 points are 38-13 ATS since 1992. That's a 75% system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Arizona!

4* Big 12 Total of the Month on UNDER

While recent meetings between these two teams have been high-scoring, I'm not expecting a shootout in Manhattan this time around. Kansas State is going to be all business as they try to remain undefeated in Big 12 play and keep their hopes alive for a spot in the 4-team playoff.

With the Wildcats focused and the advantage of playing at home, I look for them to have no problem keeping Oklahoma State's offense in check. The Cowboys have managed just 19 points in their last two games, as they are no longer playing the other bottom-feeders in the Big 12. Kansas State just pitched a shutout last week against Texas, limiting the Longhorns to just 196 yards of total offense.

The one thing Oklahoma State quarterback Daxx Garman has been able to with some success is throw the deep ball. Bill Synder will have his defense prepared for that and with no running game to fall back on it's going to be difficult for the Cowboys to sustain drives.

The big key here is that I believe the Oklahoma State defense can put up some resistance against the Kansas State offense. The Wildcats aren't an overly explosive offense. They rank right in the middle of the pack in both rushing (178.3 ypg, 53rd) and passing (246.3 ypg, 52nd). Their primary focus is running the football, which is evident by the 41 rush attempts they average per game. The one thing the Cowboys defense has done well is stop the run, as they are a respectable 38th in the country.

I just feel we are getting a very favorable number here based on how poorly the Oklahoma State defense has looked the last two weeks against TCU and West Virginia. There's a solid system backing this up, as the UNDER is 57-26 (69%) in games where you have a total set between 49.5 to 56 points with a strong offensive team that's averaging 390 to 440 yards/game (Kansas St) against a poor defensive team that is allowing 390 to 440 yards/game at least 8 games into the season. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Oddsmakers Error on San Jose State +

The Spartans should not be catching a touchdown at home against Colorado State. The Rams are being overvalued due to their 7-1 start, which has seen them go a profitable 5-3 ATS. San Jose State has won and covered in each of the last 3 meetings in the series, two of which have come when listed as the underdog.

Simply put, this is a bad matchup for Colorado State. The Rams come into this game with the 14th ranked passing attack in the country, averaging 320.8 ypg. However, they will likely have to turn to their running game to move the football against San Jose State, who leads the country in pass defense, allowing just 89.0 ypg. It's not just because teams aren't throwing on them. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 48.5% of their attempts for a mere 4.7 yards/completion. That's come against teams who combined have average 58.5% and 7.2. They held Auburn to just 13 of 23 passing for 135 yards on the road, so clearly this secondary is for real.

Colorado State has had some success on the ground, as they are averaging 157 ypg on 4.8 yards/carry, but a lot is due to opposing teams having to respect the pass. San Jose State's defense is only giving up 13.7 ppg at home and have been much better against the run in front of the home fans, allowing just 138 ypg.

The other key here is that the Spartans offense should be able to put up enough points to secure a cover an potentially win this game outright. Colorado State has had their struggles defensively, as they rank 70th against the run (172.8 ypg) and 89th versus the pass (252.1 ypg). It's also worth noting that those numbers get even worse on the road, where they are giving up 214 ypg on the ground and 265 through the air.

Sure the Spartans allowed 41 points last week to Navy on the road, but unlike Colorado State their offense isn't built around the pass. The Midshipmen rushed it 68 times. The high number allowed is also a profitable sign for the Spartans, who are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after allowing more than 40 points. San Jose State is also 13-6 ATS in their last 19 conference games. Take the Spartans!

5* SEC Total of the Year on Kentucky/Missouri UNDER

I'm not expecting to see a lot of points scored in this one. Neither one of these teams feature a potent offense and both come in with respectable defenses. Missouri is giving up just 20.5 ppg and rank 37th in total defense (350.9 ypg) and Kentucky is allowing 24.8 ppg and are 54th in total defense (378.2 ypg).

The only conference game in which Missouri has scored more than 24 points was a 42-13 win over Florida. However, the Tigers benefited from 4 non-offensive touchdowns. They finished with a mere 7 first downs and 119 yards of total offense. That game against Florida is also the only SEC game for Missouri that's seen a combined score of more than 41 points.

Kentucky has put up some respectable numbers offensively, scoring 30 or more in 3 of their 5 conference games, but they only managed 3-points on the road against LSU and just 20 in regulation at Florida. This is also a difficult spot for the Wildcats coming off that huge game against No. 1 Mississippi State.

UNDER is 28-12 in Kentucky's last 40 road games in the second half of the season, 11-3 in Missouri's last 14 home games when listed as a favorite, 10-4 in the Wildcats last 14 after a loss, 8-1 in the Tigers' last 9 after a win and 4-1 in Kentucky's last 5 after allowing more than 40 points. These trends combine to form a Massive 74% (61-21) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Rivalry Game Total Annihilator on Georgia/Florida UNDER

I believe there's some great value on the UNDER in this matchup. Each of the last 3 meetings in this rivalry have seen a combined score of 44 or less points. Part of the reason we have a high total here is the Gators allowed 42 points in their last game against Missouri. However, the 42 points wasn't their defenses fault. Florida's defense held the Tigers to just 7 first downs and 119 yards of total offense, as Missouri scored 4 non-offensive touchdowns. 

Both of these teams come in ranked inside the top 15 in the country in total defense. Florida is 12th, allowing just 317.4 ypg and Georgia is 15th, giving up just 320.5 ypg.

I don't really have to say a whole lot about why the Bulldogs defense can shut down the Gators poor excuse of an offense, but there could be some concern here with Georgia' high-power offense piling on the points. I just don't see that being the case. Huge rivalry games like this typically are low scoring and a big added factor is that Florida comes in off a bye, giving them two full weeks to prepare for this contest.

Even though both Georgia and Florida are at their strongest against the run, I don't see either team abandoning their running game. This should lead to a lot of empty possessions that eat up the clock. The Gators are just 90th in the country in passing (198.5 ypg) and Georgia is even worse at 108th (171.3 ypg). This should also limit the number of explosive plays, which can destroy a solid UNDER play rather quickly.

There's some strong trends suggesting this one to finish below the mark based on each teams' previous performance. The UNDER is 12-2 in Florida's last 14 after allowing 175 or less total yards in their last game and 13-4 in Georgia's last 17 road games after they played in a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. The UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in the Gators last 6 away games after a contest where they had 3 or more turnovers and 12-4 in the Bulldogs last 16 after a contest where they forced 4 or more turnovers. All these trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (43-10) system. Take the UNDER!

5* ACC Total of the Year on BC/Virginia Tech UNDER

We are seeing an extremely low total for a college football game and for good reason. For starters the conditions in Blacksburg aren't expected to be favorable for either offense. Temperature around kickoff is expected be around 40-degrees with steady rain and 10-15 mph wind.

Even with ideal conditions I wouldn't expect these two teams to eclipse 40 combined points. Boston College comes in ranked 8th in total defense (299.8 ypg), while Virginia Tech is sitting at 26th (342.3 ypg).

With the conditions not exactly favoring the passing game, both of these teams are going to look to establish the running game, which is going to eat up the clock. We have seen Virgina Tech's offense really struggle against better competition of late, as they managed just 16-points at Pittsburgh and a mere 6 at home against Miami.

The big key here is that we should get an inspired effort defensively from the Hokies at home off two straight losses. Adding to this is the fact that defensive coordinator Bud Foster and the Hokies have had some extra time to prepare for BC after playing last Thursday.

UNDER is 35-19 in Boston College's last 54 road games when listed as the underdog, 14-4 in their last 18 road games after holding their last opponent to 125 or less yards and 20-6-1 in their last 27 after a SU win. UNDER is also 20-7 in Hokies last 27 home games against a team with a winning road record, 15-4 in their last 19 as a home favorite of 7 points or less and 10-1 in their last 11 after rushing for less than 125 yards in each of their last two games. These trends combine to form a 74% (114-41) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Pitt/Duke ACC Total No Brainer on UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle Saturday between these two teams. The fact that oddsmakers have set this total at just 50 points after last year's 113-point explosion is a good indicator that the books are expecting a lot more defense to be played. Keep in mind the UNDER is 5-1 in Duke's last 6 games and 4-1 in Pittsburgh's last 5.

I definitely agree. Duke ranks 2nd in the ACC 4th in the country allowing just 15.1 ppg. Only twice all season have the allowed more than 20 points and those came against two explosive offenses in Miami (FL) and Georgia Tech. Pittsburgh is only allowing 23.3 ppg and prior to giving up 56 last week to Georgia Tech were only giving up 15.0 ppg. The Panthers also come in ranked 16th in total defense, allowing just 321.0 ypg.

Not only do we have two strong defenses facing off, but we have two offenses that are looking to run the football and control the time of possession. The Blue Devils come in ranked 32nd in rushing (218.0 ypg) and are averaging 38 rush attempts a game. Pittsburgh is 20th in rushing (233.9 ypg) with an average of 44 attempts per game. The clock is going to be constantly running and I'm expecting a lot of length drives that result in no points or field goals.

UNDER is 32-17 in Duke's last 49 when listed as a road underdog, 6-0 in their last 6 conference games, and 7-1 in their last 8 after a SU win. The UNDER is also 7-1 in Pitts last 8 following a SU loss and perfect 6-0 off an upset loss as a favorite.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 57-26 in games with a total of 49.5 to 56  points at least 8 games into the season where you have a strong offensive team (390 to 440 ypg) against a poor defensive team (390-440 ypg). That's a 69% system. Take the UNDER!

4* Tulsa/Memphis AAC Game of the Month on Memphis -

After taking a closer look at this matchup, I really like Memphis in this spot. The Tigers are one of the more underrated teams in the country sitting at 4-3, as 2 of of their 3 losses came on the road against UCLA (35-42) and Ole Miss (3-24). They went into the 4th quarter at Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium trailing the Rebels by a score of just 3-7.

They did slip up on the road against Houston, losing 24-28, but outside of those three games they have more than taken care of business. Memphis demolished Austin Peay 63-0, defeated a quality Middle Tennessee team 36-17, went on the road and defeated Cincinnati 41-14 and rolled SMU 48-10. I look for the Tigers to come out extremely motivated in a rare chance for them to play in the national spotlight, as there's just two games on the schedule Friday and the contest will be aired on ESPNU.

As for Tulsa, they are playing with little to no confidence right now. The Golden Hurricane have lost 6 straight, which includes some ugly defeats to bad teams like Texas State, Temple and South Florida. In their three losses against quality opponents, they have been beat badly, losing by 45 to Oklahoma, 29 to Florida Atlantic and 25 to Colorado State.

I don't see the Tigers have any problem creating enough separation to cover this massive spread. Memphis enters with the 25th ranked defense in the country, giving up just 342.0 ypg. They are also forcing 2.4 turnovers/game. Tulsa doesn't have the talent offensively to consistently move the football and they have a tendency to give the ball away (2.0 turnovers/game).

The real key here is that Memphis should be able to score at will. Tulsa features one of the worst defenses in the country, as they come in ranked 95th against the run (207.1 ypg) and 109th against the pass (287.7 ypg). What a lot of people don't realize about the Tigers is how good they have been offensively. Memphis is 30th in the country in scoring (35.7 ppg) and 39th in total offense (451.1 ypg).

A big reason for the Tigers' offensive turnaround is the maturation of sophomore quarterback Paxton Lynch. In 12 starts as a freshman, Lynch completed just 58.2% of his attempts for 2,056 yards with 9 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. As a sophomore, he's completing 64.8% of his attempts with 10 touchdowns to 6 interceptions and already has 1,708 yards in just 7 games. If you take out his game against Ole Miss and their elite defense (13 of 31, 41.9%), Lynch is completing an impressive 68.6% of his passes. Tulsa on the season is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.7% of their attempts and on top of that are giving up 5.8 yards/carry.

There's also a strong system in play backing a fade of the Golden Hurricane. Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points who feature an awful pass defense that is allowing 8.5 or more yards/completion on the season after allowing 9.0+ yards/completion in their last game are a mere 13-38 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 75% system in favor of the Tigers. Take Memphis!

3* Louisville/Florida State ACC Game of the Week on Louisville +

We have seen this spread drop drastically since it opened at 8.5. With Florida State being such a big public team, that's a clear indication that big money is coming in on Louisville. I couldn't agree more. The Cardinals feature one of the best defenses in the country and will have a big time advantage playing at home in what should be a hostile environment for the Seminoles.

Florida State has found a way to win several close games this season to remain undefeated, but it's clear to anyone who watches this team that they are no where near as strong as last year. I'll definitely take the points, but I really like the Cardinals chances of winning this game outright.

Defensively Louisville has been outstanding. They come in ranked 1st in the country against the run (66.9 ypg) and 10th versus the pass (177.0 ypg). They have one of the more dominant defensive lines in the nation and I believe they will be able to create enough pressure to force Jameis Winston into some poor throws, which should lead to a couple turnovers and short fields for the Cardinals offense to work with.

Another thing that gets overlooked with Florida State is their defense isn't all that great. The Seminoles come in 43rd against the run (146.6 ypg) and 60th versus the pass (227.9 ypg). Considering they haven't played the toughest of schedules, there's plenty of reason to believe Louisville will be able to move the ball.

Petrino always seems to get his teams to exceed expectations at home. As a head coach his teams have gone an impressive 39-17 ATS at home. They are an even better 23-7 ATS at home in the second half of the season and 11-2 (85%) when they come in having won 4 of their last 5 games. Take Louisville!

3* Ohio St/Penn St Big Ten Main Event on Ohio St -

After taking a closer look into this matchup, I just don't see how the Nittany Lions will be able to keep it close against the Buckeyes. Ohio State's early loss to Virginia Tech seems to have lit a fire under this team and the Buckeyes have consistently been undervalued because of it.

Ohio State comes in 5-1 ATS and are absolutely rolling offensively. In their last 4 games the Buckeyes are averaging a ridiculous 56.0 ppg and have outscored the opposition during this stretch by a combined 224 to 69.

Penn State got off to an impressive 4-0 start, but after back-to-back losses to Northwestern at home and on the road against Michigan, who are two below-average teams, it's pretty clear the Nittany Lions are not in the same league as Ohio State.

Offensively the Nittany Lions have been a complete mess and it's a big reason why I feel confident laying 14 on the road, even with Penn State getting an extra week to prepare. The Nittany Lions have 90th ranked offense in the country (375.5 ypg). They just aren't built to play in a shootout and I don't like their chances of rallying if they fall behind early.

I would argue that this year's Ohio State is on par, if not better than last years, while Penn State is clearly down a few notches. That's important to note, because last year the Buckeyes rolled the Nittany Lions 63-14 with a massive 686 to 357 advantage in total yards. Adding to this is the fact that Ohio State has covered 6 of the last 8 in the series, so this wouldn't be the first time the books have set the number too low in this matchup.

Penn State is 11-26 ATS since 1992 against teams who are outscoring their opponents by 17+ points/game, while Ohio State is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 versus teams who control the ball for 32 or more minutes per game. The Nittany Lions are also just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 when they come in having rushed for 125 yards or less in each of their last 4 games. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (66-23) system in favor of the Buckeyes. Take Ohio State!

4* NCAAF Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Auburn -

I look for Auburn to rebound from their first loss of the season with a blowout win at home against the Gamecocks. The Tigers fell behind 0-21 in the first quarter of a 23-38 road loss to Mississippi State, thank to two turnovers and a missed field goal in their first four possessions. I still believe Auburn is one of the elite teams in the country and should have no problem winning by 3 scores against a South Carolina team that simply isn't very good.

The Gamecocks have a win over Georgia at home on their resume, but outside of that victory this team has not been impressive inside the SEC. South Carolina got embarrassed by Texas A&M, lost at home to Missouri and failed to beat Kentucky on the road. Auburn's two home conference games have resulted in blowout wins over Arkansas (45-21) and LSU (41-7), both of which I believe are better teams than the Gamecocks.

Offensively the Tigers feature a potent attack and it's no secret that they are at their best when they can have success on the ground. That certainly doesn't figure to be a problem against South Carolina and their 87th ranked run defense that's giving up 181.7 ypg and 5.3 yards/carry. Keep in mind that Auburn is averaging 5.6 yards/carry (6.2 at home) against teams that are only giving up an average of 4.2 yards/carry.

The other big key here is that the Tigers have a strong enough defense to create the separation needed to cover a big spread like this. Auburn is 24th in the country in total defense (333.7 ypg) and have done a good job against both the run (120.7 ypg, 24th) and the pass (213.0 ypg, 38th).

What I really like about Auburn is that they have a huge scheduling advantage here. The Tigers were off last week, which gives them two full weeks to stew over their loss to the Bulldogs and prepare for South Carolina.

Auburn is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when playing against a team with a winning record, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against teams who average 4.75 or more yards/carry, 8-1 in their last 9 after playing in a game where 60+ combined points were scored and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 37 or more points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 91% (31-3) system in favor of the Tigers. Take Auburn!

3* NCAAF SEC No Doubt ATS Rout on Alabama -

It took a little longer than expected, but the Crimson Tide finally looked like the best team in the country in last week's 59-0 win over Texas A&M. Knowing that they need to keep winning in impressive fashion to make their case for the 4-team playoff, I see no reason why the Crimson Tide won't go into Tennessee and win by more than 3 scores.

The Volunteers are a much-improved team, but they are not ready to compete with big boys in the SEC. That was evident in last week's 3-34 loss at Ole Miss. I know the Rebels defeated Alabama, but I still believe the Crimson Tide are the better team. Tennessee simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace with an Alabama offense that is clicking on all cylinders after putting up over 600 yards of offense on the Aggies.

Each of the last two meetings between these two teams have resulted in an Alabama blowout win. The Crimson Tide won 44-13 at Tennessee as a 19-point favorite in 2012 and last year rolled over the Volunteers 45-10 as a 28-point favorite. It's simply asking too much for Tennessee to keep this game within 20-points.

The Volunteers are just 16-30 ATS in their last 46 home games played during week 5 through 9 of the season, which is typically when you see almost exclusively conference opponents. Adding to this is the fact that Tennessee is just 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games against a team with a winning road record and 3-13 ATS in their last 15 home games against strong defensive teams who are allowing 14 or less points/game. Alabama on the other hand is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games in the month of October.

There's also a strong system in play on the Crimson Tide. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who have allowed 125 or less rushing yards in their last 3 games against an opponent that was just outrushed by 150 or more yards are 28-9 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Crimson Tide. Take Alabama!

4* American Athletic Total of the Month on UCF/Temple UNDER

I'm expecting a very low scoring game here, as we have two bad offensive teams against two strong defenses. Temple comes in with the 94th ranked offense (370.7 ypg), yet are a respectable 31st in total defense (345.3 ypg). There's an even bigger difference for UCF, which is 121st in total offense (291.0 ypg) and 20th in total defense (326.2 ypg).

Just looking at the points allowed for both of these teams, it wouldn't come as a surprise if we didn't see either team reach 20 points in this one. Temple is allowing just 16.0 ppg on the road and UCF is only giving up 14.7 ppg at home. Even if both teams give up a touchdown more than what their average, that comes out to just 45 points, which still has us under a field of the current total.

You might think this is a good spot for the Knight's offense against a Temple defense that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 59.3% of their passes, but that puts us in a strong situation for this one to go below the mark. The UNDER is 21-9 in UCF's last 30 home games against teams who are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 58% or more of their pass attempts.

There's also a strong system in play here. The UNDER is 69-128 in games where you have a team that committed 3 or more turnovers in their last game against an opponent who had a turnover margin of -2 or worse in each of their last two. The key here is that this system comes into play for both teams, making it that much stronger. It's a 65% system both ways. Take the UNDER!

3* Big 12 NCAAF Total Dominator on Oklahoma St/W Virginia OVER

I believe we are catching a good number here due to both of these finishing below the total in each of their last 3 games. Last time these two teams met in Stillwater, they combined for 89 points in a 55-34 win for the Cowboys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw a very similar outcome in 2014.

Oklahoma State is no where near as bad offensively as what we saw last week against TCU. Prior to that game the Cowboys had scored at least 27 points in each of their previous 6 games and 4 of those saw them score 35+. What you can't overlook here is that West Virginia is not as strong defensively on the road as they are at home. The Mountaineers are giving up just 27.1 points and 382 yards on the season, yet are giving up an average of 34.7 points and 517 yards on the road. Adding to this is the fact that Oklahoma State is a much stronger team offensively at home than on the road. They are scoring 41.2 points on 471 yards at home, compared to just 33.1 points and 397 yards on the season.

As for West Virginia their offense has traveled well and Oklahoma State's offense hasn't been a whole lot better at home compared to on the road. No reason not to expect the Mountaineers to come close to their season average of 37.3.

OVER is 2-1 in the Mountaineers 3 road games this season and 2-1 in the Cowboys 3 home games this season. We also see that the OVER is 12-3 in Oklahoma State's last 15 after a 2 game road trip, 37-17 in their last 54 conference home games and 17-5 in their last 22 with a line of +3 to -3.  We also see that the OVER is 24-6 in the Cowboys last 30 home games against a strong offensive team that's averaging 425 or more total yards/game.

Strong system in play as well. OVER is 41-15 in games where you have a team who allowed 6.25 or more yards/play in their last game (Cowboys) against an opponent who has gained 450 or more total yards in each of their last 4 games. That's a 73% system on this one to finish above the mark. Take the OVER!

5* Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma State -

I’m not surprised that we have seen a big shift in the spread of this game after what transpired last week (Cowboys were 19-point favorites before the season started). After Oklahoma state got embarrassed by TCU 42-9 and West Virginia stunned Baylor 41-27, the line is down to basically a pick’em. I believe it’s created some incredible value on the Cowboys at home.

Oklahoma State is going to be extremely motivated off that ugly loss to TCU, which was their first real bad performance of the season. Keep in mind their only other defeat came against then No. 1 Florida State by a final of just 31-36. Things just didn’t go there way against the Horned Frogs.

I’ll admit that I didn’t expect West Virginia to win outright against Baylor, but I wasn’t shocked that they played well at home. There’s just something about Morgantown and Mountaineer Field that makes it difficult for opposing Big 12 teams to play well, especially when it’s a big game. What you can’t overlook after a big win like that is how much West Virginia has struggled on the road. While they are 2-0 in true road games this season, they won at Maryland 40-37 on a last second field goal and had to erase a 14-point 4th quarter deficit to leave Texas Tech with a 37-34 win. Oklahoma State is better than both of those teams and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cowboys won here going away.

The Cowboys loss to TCU was their worst defeat in six seasons and the first time in 59 games that they went without a touchdown. The offense should get back on track against a Mountaineers defense that is allowing 34.7 points and 517 yards of total offense on the road. West Virginia has been especially bad versus the run on the road, giving up an average of 223 yards/game and 5.9 yards/carry. They are also allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.4% of their passes for an average 7.5 yards/completion. Add in the huge letdown spot for West Virginia and you can see why the books still have Oklahoma State listed as the favorite. The Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games after being outgained by 125 or more total yards and 17-3 in their last 20 home games off a loss by 21 or more points.

There’s a strong system in play telling us to fade the Mountaineers based on last week’s big win over Baylor. Road teams off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more points are a mere 8-32 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 over the last 10 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Oklahoma State!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on SMU/Memphis UNDER

This may seem like a low total for a game that involves SMU and their awful defense, but I believe the books have set it low for good reason. SMU has scored 6 or fewer points in all put one game this season, including just 6-points last week against a bad Cincinnati defense. Memphis is strong defensively and have had an extra week to prepare for this matchup, giving little reason to expect SMU's offense will be able to do much of anything.

If Memphis wanted to, they could potentially eclipse this total on their own, but there's no reason for the Tigers to run up the score. Look for Memphis to be content running the ball and moving the chains on the ground, which plays right into their strength, as they come in averaging 48 rush attempts per game. As you know, lots of running typically leads to a quick game that finishes under the total.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Memphis jumped out to a huge lead early and got some of their backup players some playing time. Keep in mind they have a quick turnaround with a home game against Tulsa on Friday.

It's also worth noting that Memphis hasn't been as effective offensively on the road. The Tigers come in averaging 33.7 points and 429 yards per game on the season, yet are scoring just 26.3 points on 394 yards away from home. Coupled with a strong defense it's a big reason why we have seen the UNDER go 7-2 in Memphis' last 9 road games.

There's also a strong system in play favoring this game to go below the mark. The UNDER is 31-11 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 42.5 to 49 points with a road team playing with 2 or more weeks of rest. That's a 74% system. Take the UNDER!

3* Friday Night NCAAF No Doubt ATS Rout on Cincinnati -

The Bearcats will be out for revenge in this one, as they lost 20-26 at South Florida last year. A game they basically handed to the Bulls. Cincinnati had a 350 to 241 edge in total yards and South Florida's only two touchdowns come on a blocked field goal that was returned 75 yards and on a 10-yard fumble return. Without those two gifts, the Bearcats would have won by double-digits rather easily and that's what I'm expecting to happen tonight in front of the home fans.

While Cincinnati comes into this game at just 3-3, their 3 losses have come against 3 solid opponents in Ohio State, Memphis and Miami (FL). In both of their losses to the Buckeyes and Tigers, starting quarterback Gunner Kiel was dealing with some banged up ribs that really limited his effectiveness. He returned to form in last week's 41-3 victory over SMU, completing 13 of 20 attempts for 241 yards, while also rushing for 50 yards.

One of the big keys here is that Cincinnati has a very underrated homefield advantage. The Bearcats haven't finished worse than 5-1 at home in each of the last 5 years. They did lose at home to Memphis last time they played at Paul Brown Stadium, but that should only add even more fuel to the fire for tonight's matchup.

South Florida is simply getting too much respect here due to covering in each of their last 4 games, which included a 38-30 win at Tulsa last week. However, the Bulls were outgained 488 to 412 in total yards and had to rally from a 20-point halftime deficit. The Bearcats aren't going to be as generous. It's also unlikely South Florida will be able to put together another strong offensive effort like they did against Tulsa. Even with their strong showing against the Golden Hurricane, the Bulls come in ranked 118th in the country in total offense, averaging just 311.1 ypg.

Cincinnati's defense forced 4 turnovers last time out against SMU and that's been a good sign of things to come for the Bearcats. They are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a turnover margin of +4 or better.

We also see a strong system in play. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a win by 35 or more points against an opponent who saw a combined scored of 60+ points in their last contest are 30-7 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 81% system in favor of the Bearcats. Take Cincinnati!

4* Miami/Virginia Tech ACC Game of the Month on Virginia Tech +

The Hokies should not be a home dog to Miami. The Hurricanes have lost all 3 of their road games so far this season and each of those have come by double-digits. I just feel there’s been to big of an overreaction to Virginia Tech’s 16-21 loss last week to Pittsburgh. This is still the same Hokies team that went on the road and upset Ohio State 35-21 as a 10-point dog. Miami’s only impressive win so far this season has come against Duke at home.

The advantage of playing at home in these weekday night games is huge and it’s even a bigger advantage when it’s at a hostile environment like Lane Stadium. While Virginia Tech has already lost at home to both East Carolina and Georgia Tech, they have not lost more than 2 home games in the same season going back to 2000.

Defensively the Hokies have been one of the better units in the country. Virginia Tech ranks 20th in total defense (326.0 ypg) and have been equally effective against both the run (123.3, 29th) as they have against the pass (202.7, 27th). Miami’s offense is averaging just 20.3 points and 343.7 yards per game on the road. A far cry from their season averages of 31.4 ppg and 426 ypg.

There is some concern with Virginia Tech's offense and their ability to take care of the football. The Hokies have committed 14 turnovers in 7 games, but have been much better of late. They had just 1 turnover in each of their last two games on the road against North Carolina and Pittsburgh. Adding to this, Miami’s offense has been even worse at protecting the rock. The Hurricanes have 16 turnovers so far this season and will be going up against a Virginia Tech defense that has totaled 7 takeaways in their last 3 games.

Not only has Miami’s offense struggled to get going on the road, but their defense hasn’t played up to their potential away from home. The Hurricanes are allowing 33.3 points and 388 yards per game on the road. They are allowing 4.9 yards/carry and opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.7% of their attempts away from home.

The Hokies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games when listed as an underdog and 38-19 ATS in their last 57 after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. Miami on the other hand is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 conference games. These trends combine to form a 72% (68-26) system in favor of the Hokies. Take Virginia Tech!

3* NCAAF Late Night Pac-12 Over/Under Crusher on Oregon/Wash OVER

Even with Washington's strong defense, I'm expecting a shootout on Saturday between the Ducks and Huskies. Each of the last two meetings in this series have seen a combined score of at least 69 points. Washington had a strong defense in 2012 and it resulted in a total of just 62.5 points at Oregon. The Ducks put up 52 and the total flew over with 73 combined points.

What a lot of people overlooked in Oregon's loss to Arizona, which saw them score just 24 points, was they were without their top 3 tackles. They got back Jake Fisher last week and it made a huge difference, as they returned to form with 42 points on the road against UCLA. Washington has a great pass rush, but they also give up a lot of big plays through the air. The Huskies rank just 97th in the country against the pass, allowing 274.7 ypg. Their attacking mentality could also open up some big plays for Mariota scrambling out of the pocket.

The real key here is that Oregon's defense is not as good as what we have seen in years past. The Ducks come in ranked 73rd against the run (174.2 ypg) and 108th versus the pass (295.5 ypg). While Washington doesn't have a great offense, they should be able to score in the mid to upper 20s to push this well over the mark of 64.5.

There's a strong system in play favoring this game to finish above the total. The OVER is 33-9 over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a team off a conference road win (Oregon) against an opponent off a win by 10+ points as an underdog. That's a 79% system. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Missouri/Florida UNDER

Both of these teams have better defenses than they do offenses. Missouri comes in ranked 57th in total defense (380.7 ypg) and just 106th in total offense (357.9 ypg). Florida is 40th in total defense (357.0 ypg) and 90th in total offense (385.0 ypg).

Missouri put up some big offensive numbers early in the year against weak competition, but have not been able to get anything going of late. They managed just 27 points at home against a Indiana defense that is not good at all, had just 7 points before a couple of late touchdowns against an average South Carolina defense and last week managed just 147 total yards in their loss to Georgia.

Florida hasn’t been much better. While the Gators scored 21 points at Alabama, they had a fumble returned for a touchdown and their two other scores also came on Crimson Tide turnovers. Florida then managed just 10 points at Tennessee and their 27 against LSU isn’t impressive based on how bad the Tigers have looked defensively inside conference play.

Offensively the Gators have little to no threat of a passing attack, as Jeff Driskel continues to be one of the biggest bust in Florida history (#1 ranked QB out of high school). Driskel has completed just 55% of his attempts with just 6 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. Missouri’s defense is more than capable of slowing down the Gators offensive attack.

The Tigers are giving up 22.8 ppg against opponents who are averaging 31.0 ppg. Florida is allowing just 22.2 ppg against teams who are averaging 29.5 ppg. What’s really impressive is how good these two teams have been against the run. Missouri is giving up 3.7 yards/carry against teams average 5.1 and the Gators are allowing just 2.9 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.2.

I don’t expect to see either offense doing much of anything and when they do I look for both teams to have to settle for field goals. I wouldn’t be shocked if both of these teams failed to reach 20 points.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Tigers' last 4, 8-2 in Missouri’s last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home and 11-5 in the Gators last 16 games following a contest in which they failed to cover the spread. These trends combine to form a 77% (23-7) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Oddsmakers Error on Missouri +

There's a lot of value getting 5.5-points in a game between two evenly matched teams where not a lot of points are expected (total 49). Not only do I think Missouri keeps this close enough to cover, but I look for them win this game outright.

The Tigers couldn't have played any worse last week against Georgia. That loss looks bad in the eyes of the public because the Bulldogs were without star running back Todd Gurley, but I believe his absence actually helped Georgia. The rest of the Bulldogs' players were out to show everyone that there's more to this team than Gurley and Missouri clearly wasn't ready. That loss should have the Tigers as focused as they have been all season. Keep in mind they followed up an ugly loss at home to Indiana with an outright win at South Carolina as a 6.5-point dog.

While this is a great spot for Missouri to bounce back, I think the Gators could find it difficult to get up for this game. Florida is coming in off a heartbreaking 27-30 loss at home to LSU and have a huge game on deck against rival Georgia next week. It becomes that much more difficult to not look ahead when you are going up against a team that looked as bad as Missouri did last week.

For me this game is going to come down to which quarterback can make plays and extend drives. While Matty Mauk was awful last week against Georgia (9 of 21, 97 yards, 4 INTs), I'm confident he will bounce back and outperform Florida's Jeff Driskel.

There's a nice system in play telling us to fade the Gators. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a close conference loss by 3 points or less in a matchup of two teams with a winning record are just 18-48 ATS since 1992. That's a 73% long-term system in favor of the Tigers. Take Missouri!

3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Rout on Georgia Tech -

This is a great spot to jump on Georgia Tech laying less than a field goal against North Carolina. While the Tar Heels played Notre Dame tough last week, a lot of that had to do with it being a horrible spot for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame just got done playing a huge rivalry game against Standford and had an even bigger game against Florida State on deck. I still think there's a lot of problems with North Carolina and I wouldn't be surprised if they suffered a bit of a let down after giving it all they had against Notre Dame.

Georgia Tech didn't have a great showing last week against Duke, losing 25-31 at home. However, that performance wasn't all that surprising. The Yellow Jackets were fresh off a huge win over Miami, who they had lost 5 straight to. This is the perfect opponent for Georgia Tech to bounce back against.

It's no secret that the Yellow Jackets primary focus is to run the football and control the clock. They should have no problem doing just that against North Carolina. The Tar Heels come into this game ranked 88th in the country against the run, giving up 191.7 ypg. Last year Georgia Tech rushed for 324 yards against UNC in a 28-20 home win and in 2012 they put up 380 yards in a 68-50 victory in Chapel Hill.

The other big key here is that the Yellow Jacket's defense matches up well with North Carolina's offense. The Tar Heels come in ranked 30th in the country in passing (285.0 ypg) and just 85th in rushing (147.2 ypg). Georgia Tech is 25th against the pass (200.7 ypg) and if they can keep North Carolina's offense from sustaining drives this game is going to turn into a blowout in a hurry.

There's a strong system telling us to fade the Tar Heels. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are being outscored by an average of 7 ppg in the 1st half, after playing a game where there were 70+ combined points scored are just 9-34 ATS since 1992. That's a 79% system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!

4* SEC Game of the Month on Arkansas +

You might think the Razorbacks will be down after yet another crushing loss, but I believe this team is on a mission to show everyone that they are on their way back to being a power in the SEC. What will keep Arkansas’ focused on the Bulldogs? A 12-game conference losing streak that goes back to 2012.

You could actually make a strong case that Georgia is the team primed for a letdown. The Bulldogs are coming off an emotional win last week over the Tigers, as they were out to prove to everyone that their season isn’t ruined by Gurley’s absence. Bringing that same intensity on the road against Arkansas could prove to be difficult, especially with their huge rivalry game against Florida on deck.

One of the keys to the Bulldogs blowout win over Missouri, was Georgia had a 42:23 to 17:37 edge in time of possession. That’s not going to be the case against the Razorbacks. Arkansas has one of the best offensive lines in the country and come in ranked 11th in rushing at 278.7 ypg. The Razorbacks controlled the clock against Alabama (34:13 to 25:47) and the Crimson Tide are a lot better defensively than the Bulldogs.

The fact that Georgia comes in ranked 11th in the nation against the run, giving up just 101.7 ypg, could lead you to believe that they will be able to slow down the Razorbacks’ rushing attack. I’m not so confident that will be the case. The Bulldogs have played a lot of bad running teams, which has aided their numbers. What stands out to me is the 176 yards they allowed on the ground at South Carolina.

On the flip side of this, I believe Arkansas’ defense is capable of keeping the Bulldogs rushing attack in check, especially if Gurley isn’t able to play. The Razorbacks just limited Alabama to 66 yards on 32 attempts (2.1 yards/carry) at home last week and will be able to focus in even more on the run with Georgia lack of a passing attack (170.0 ypg, 110th).

Georgia hasn’t exactly responded well off a big win away from home, as the Bulldogs are just 10-25 ATS off a double-digit road win. Georgia is also a mere 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win, while Arkansas is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team with a winning road record. These Trends combine to form a 75% (46-15) system in favor of the Razorbacks. Take Arkansas!

3* NCAAF Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +

Clemson is simply not the same caliber a team without star freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Watson suffered a broken finger in last week's game against Louisville and the Tigers offense sputtered. Clemson managed just 12 first downs and 229 yards of total offense for the game, with the only points coming from the offense being 3 field goals.

There's a reason this line has dropped from 7.5 to 5.5. Boston College is a lot better team than they get credit for. Head coach Steve Addazio has done a tremendous job in his first two years at Chestnut Hill and I look for his defense to give the Tigers all kinds of trouble. It's no secret that Clemson has a strong defense, but not a lot of people realize how good Boston College has been on the defensive side of the ball. The Eagles come in ranked 22nd in scoring defense (19.3 ppg) and 8th in total defense (289. ypg).

Boston College played Clemson tough on the road last year, losing by a final of just 14-24 and that was a very talented Tigers team. What I like is the Eagles have really stepped up at home against the top teams in the ACC. Last year they gave Florida State all they could handle in a 34-48 home loss. No other team kept it within 27-points against the Seminoles during the regular season. They upset Virginia Tech 34-27 as a 4-point home dog.

Without Watson at quarterback, Clemson is going to have rely more on the run and that's not their strength. The Tigers come in ranked 92nd in the country in rushing at 141.2 ypg and are averaging just 3.3 yards/carry against teams who are allowing an average of 4.4 ypc. Boston College on the other hand is 9th against the run, giving up just 99.8 ypg and only 3.4 ypc.

Adding to the Tigers rushing problems is a huge system telling us to fade Clemson. Teams who are averaging 3 to 3.5 ypc against a conference opponent that is allowing 3 to 3.5 ypc are just 10-49 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 83% system in favor of the Eagles. Take Boston College!

5* ACC Over/Under Total of the Year on BC/Clemson UNDER

This might seem like an extremely low total, but I think there's a lot of value in the UNDER with Clemson not having the services of talented freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson, who suffered a broken finger in last week's game against Louisville. While the Tigers went on to score 23 points, the offense managed just 9 points. Their two touchdowns came on a 72-yard punt return and fumble recovery in the endzone. The real telling stat for Clemson was the 12 first downs and mere 229 yards of total offense they managed. Senior quarterback Cole Stoudt has some experience, but is no where close to Watson in terms of talent.

Hard to imagine the Tigers offense getting on track against a strong Boston College defensive unit. The Eagles come in ranked 22nd in scoring defense (19.3 ppg) and 8th in total defense (289. ypg). I'm also not expecting to see a whole lot out of Boston College's offense, as Clemson comes in ranked 35th in scoring defense (21.2 ppg) and 7th in total defense (286.0 ypg). Even had Watson played I don't think this would have been a high-scoring affair.

Another key here is that both of these teams are excellent against the run and do a great job of not giving up the big play. Boston College is allowing just 3.0 yards/rush and 4.4 yards/play, while Clemson is giving up just 3.4 yards/rush and 5.0 yards/play. Not only are both offenses going to struggle to stay to sustain drives, they will likely have to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

It's also worth mentioning that last year these two teams combined for just 38 points and both have lost big time offensive players. The Tigers parted ways with their all-time leading passer (Tajh Boyd) and receiver (Sammy Watkins), while BC lost their all-time leading rusher (Andre Williams).

UNDER is 36-18 in Clemson's last 54 games against teams who are allowing 120 or less rushing yards/game and 13-3 in Boston College's last 16 home games against teams who are averaging 8 or more yards/pass.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 33-11 over the last 10 seasons in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points when you have a team that outgained their previous opponent by 125 or more yards (BC) against an opponent that managed just 3.25 or less yards/play in their last game. That's a 75% system. Take the UNDER!

3* Virginia/Duke ACC Total Dominator on UNDER

Both of these teams have had a tendency to finish UNDER the total in 2014. Virginia has gone under the mark in 3 of their 5 games and Duke has finished below the total in 4 of 5. The only Blue Devil game that finished over was a 47-13 win over Tulane (total 52.5), where Duke had 2 interceptions returned for a touchdown in the 4th quarter.

One of the things that I really like here is that we have two teams who are both looking to establish the run. Virginia comes in averaging 42 rush attempts/game and Duke is right behind at 39 attempts/game. This should lead to a lot of empty possessions with big chunks of time ran off the clock.

Virginia comes in with the 6th ranked run defense in the country, giving up just 91.5 ypg on a mere 2.7 yards/carry. While Duke has rushed for at least 180 yards in 5 of their 6 games, a lot of that has to do with an easy schedule. They had just 85 yards against Miami a couple weeks back and ended up scoring just 10 points in the game (32 combined).

Duke doesn't have the best run defense, but I would expect them play inspired defensively at home, which has definitely been the case so far this season. The Blue Devils are only giving up 9.7 ppg on 339 ypg at home this season.

Leaning towards the UNDER in Virginia games has been a wise move over the years. The UNDER is 73-45 (62%) over the Cavaliers last 118 conference games. It's also 20-7 in their last 27 games following a win and 13-4 in their last 17 road games against teams who are allowing 17 or less points/game. UNDER is also 6-1 in Duke's last 7 after a win, 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 5-0 in their last 5 conference games. These trends combine to form a solid 68% (121-58) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Total Annihilator on UCF/Tulane UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle in Saturday's matchup between Tulane and UCF. Both of these teams have struggled to get much of anything going offensively in 2014. The Knights are 95th in scoring (24.6 ppg) and 118th in total offense (302.6 ypg), while the Green Wave are 114th in scoring (19.7 ppg) and 101st in total offense (366.6 ypg).

It's also worth noting that both defenses match up well with the offensive strength of the other team. UCF's can't run the football (2.6 yards/carry), forcing them to throw a lot more than they would like. Tulane is 35th in the country against the pass, giving up just 213.2 ypg. As for the Green Wave, they have little to no threat of a passing attack, which plays right into the hands of a UCF defense that is giving up just 3.3 yards/carry (only 2.9 ypc at home).

Last week Tulane managed to score just 3-points at home against Connecticut, which is a great sign that the Green Wave will have a difficult time putting up points on the road against a motivated UCF team that is coming off a big win against BYU. It's also worth noting that the Knights have had a few extra days to prepare, as their game against the Cougars was played last Thursday.

UNDER is 5-1 in Tulane's last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 4-0-1 in their last 5 after scoring 20 points or less last time out. The UNDER is also 4-0 in UCF's last 4 conference games and 6-1 in their last 7 after passing for more than 280 yards in their last game. These trends combine to form a Dynamite 90% (19-2) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Baylor/West Virginia Big 12 Game of the Month on Baylor -

You could argue that this is a big of a letdown spot for Baylor off that huge game against TCU, but I don’t think that’s the case. I actually think last week’s game against the Horned Frogs served as a wake-up call for the Bears. It’s no secret that West Virginia is a difficult place to play and Baylor head coach Art Briles is too good to let his players overlook a quality team like the Mountaineers. Keep in mind that Bears have an open date next week, so the players know that with a big win here and Kansas on deck, there's a good chance they could get some extra rest if they dominate the Mountaineers.

While West Virginia has a potent offense that’s capable of putting up a lot of points, their defense is downright awful. The Mountaineers allowed 565 yards of total offense to Texas Tech, 510 to Oklahoma and 538 to Alabama. I just don’t see West Virginia being able to slow down the Bears, who have a renewed since of confidence after how they finished out that game against TCU. Baylor comes in ranked 1st in the country in total offense, averaging 622.5 ypg.

The big key here is that Baylor’s defense is capable of making some stops, which they showed at the end of the game last week against TCU. Adding to that is the fact that the Bears had a near 300-yard edge in total offense against the Horned Frogs (782 to 485). Baylor comes in ranked 25th in scoring defense (20.0 ppg) and 10th in total defense (303.5 ypg). West Virginia will likely top both of those marks, but I don’t see them keeping pace with what their defense is going to give up on the other side of the ball.

Baylor reminds me a lot of Oregon over previous years. The books just can’t seem to get a good grasp on the Bears. Going back to 2011, Baylor is an impressive 30-13-1 ATS. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. West Virginia on the other hand keeps getting overvalued. The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

There's also a strong system in play on the Bears. Road favorites off 3 straight conference wins when playing on Saturday are 72-36 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Bears. Take Baylor!

3* Fresno St/Boise St MWC Game of the Week on Boise St -

The Broncos haven’t exactly looked impressive in their last two games. Boise State lost outright at Air Force 14-28 as a 13-point favorite and followed that up by squeaking by at Nevada 51-46. You can bet head coach Bryan Harsin had his players full attention over their bye. With the Broncos out for revenge from last year's 40-41 loss at Fresno St and back on their home field, where they are 63-3 since 2004, I look for them to make a statement against the Bulldogs.

I haven’t been impressed with Fresno State at all this season and it’s really not all that surprising. The Bulldogs were all but assured to regress after losing their all-time leading passer in Derek Carr, along with wide outs Davante Adams and Isaiah Burse (combined for 231 receptions, 2,744 yards and 30 TDs). Not only has the offense taken a step back, but the defense has not made the strides they were hoping for. Fresno State ranks 110th in the country in total defense (472.0 ypg) and have had trouble stopping both the run (213.4 ypg) and the pass (258.6 ypg).

Hard to see the Bulldogs’ defense being able to slow down the Broncos, who despite playing a tough non-conference schedule come in ranked 27th in total offense at 483.8 ypg. Most of the damage has come from a passing attack that is averaging 301.5 ypg, but Boise State is more than capable of attacking on the ground with talented junior running back Jay Ajayi.

Fresno State’s 3 wins this season have come against the likes of Southern Utah, New Mexico and San Diego State. They were fortunate to beat the Lobos on the road and benefited from catching the Aztecs in their first game without starting quarterback Quinn Kaehler. Their 27-30 loss at UNLV this past week really shows just how poor of a team this is. They lost by 39 to USC, 32 to Utah and 36 to Nebraska. Boise State might not be as good as those three teams, but they are more than capable of winning at home by at least 20 points.

There’s a solid system backing the Broncos. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who have won 4 of their last 5 games, who have also won 60% to 80% of their games on the season, against a marginal losing team 40% to 49% are 46-20 ATS since 1992. That's a 70% system in favor of the Broncos. Take Boise State!

5* Weekday NCAAF Total of the Year on Pitt/Va Tech UNDER

Forget the side, the value here is on this game to go UNDER the total. Both Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech are limited offensively and rely heavily on their defense. The Hokies come in ranked 21st in total defense (325.1 ypg) and 23rd in scoring (19.8 ppg), while the Panthers are 4th in total defense (277.5 ypg) and 17th in scoring (19.0 ppg).

The big key here is that both of these teams primary focus offensively is to establish the run. Virginia Tech is averaging 42 rush attempts a game and Pittsburgh is handing it off 46 times a game. That's a perfect recipe to kill the clock and keep points off the scoreboard when you have to strong defenses like this.

Another aspect that should help both defenses is the fact that each team was off last week, giving them 11 days to prepare for this matchup. Last year these two teams managed to combine for just 27 points and that was with 9 points scored in the final 3:30 of the 4th quarter. Together the two teams combined for just 525 total yards and 28 first downs.

UNDER is 34-18 in Pittsburgh's last 52 games against teams who are allowing 120 or less rushing yards per game. Adding to the Hokies solid rush numbers is the fact that they are giving up just 3.4 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.9.

UNDER is also 6-1 in Virginia Tech's last 7 games following a bye, 16-5 in their last 21 games on Thursday, 24-9-1 in their last 34 off a SU win, 4-1 in Pitts last 5 off a bye and 6-1 in Panthers last 7 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 77% (56-17) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Tuesday Night NCAAF Over/Under Total Dominator on Lafayette/Texas St OVER

We have seen this total jump from the opening number of 60 to 63.5. I believe it's for good reason and there's still plenty of value on the OVER. This matchup features two defenses that have really been struggling. Texas State is giving up 423.2 ypg, while Lafayette is allowing 460 ypg. Neither team can stop the run. The Bobcats are surrendering 214.8 ypg and the Ragin' Cajuns are giving up 187.8 ypg. Both teams should be able to move the chains with ease and most importantly finish off drives with touchdowns.

Texas State comes in ranked 21st in total offense, averaging 497.6 ypg and have had equally strong success running (259.6 ypg) as they have passing (238.0 ypg). There could be some concern over Lafayette's offensive numbers, as they are just 84th in the country in total offense (390.2 ypg). However, that's due to playing two strong defenses on the road in Ole Miss and Boise State. The Ragin' Cajuns just put up 461 yards on Georgia State last time out and last year scored 48 points on 572 yards of offense against these Bobcats. It's also worth noting that Texas State has allowed at least 30 points in each of their games against FBS opponents.

Anytime there's a high total with the Ragin' Cajuns, it's been a wise move to focus in on the OVER. In Lafayette's last 15 games with a total of 63 or more points, the OVER has gone 12-3. The OVER is also 8-3 in the Ragin' Cajuns last 11 games off a bye and 19-9 in their last 28 games played in October (typically conference matchups). These trends combine to form a strong 72% (39-15) system. Take the OVER!