3* Oddsmakers Error on Missouri -

The Auburn Tigers are lucky to be playing for an SEC Championship. It took a desperation Hail Mary to beat Georgia, and a 109 yard return on a missed field goal to beat Alabama. In the battle of Tigers I have to side with Missouri because they are clearly the better team. Missouri has earned each of their wins, and I don't think Auburn can continue to catch lucky breaks like they have.

Missouri is the better scoring team, averaging 41.8 points per game on the road this season. While this is not a traditional road game since they are playing on a neutral field, I think Missouri should have no problem putting up another big number on the scoreboard. Auburn's defense has been soft in road games, allowing 29 points per game. Their biggest vulnerability is a secondary allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.1% of their pass attempts in those games. Missouri is a very good passing team, averaging a 65.6% completion rate for 256 passing yards per game on the road.

The Missouri Tigers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games. They are also a perfect 8-0 after a game where they committed one turnover or less this season. I think Missouri will dominate the turnover margin in this game which gives them another very significant advantage. Missouri's defense is forcing 2.2 turnovers per game, while the Auburn defense is forcing just 1.4 turnovers per game.

4* Vegas Insider on Oklahoma State -

This game means more to the Cowboys than a typical rivalry game. A win in Stillwater would clinch a share of the conference title, and send Oklahoma State to a BCS game for the second time in three years. The Cowboys are clearly the better team, picking up wins over both Texas and Baylor, the two teams that handed the Sooners losses this season. Oklahoma State

4* Vegas Insider on Rice +

Rice is too good of a team to be getting a touchdown in Houston for the conference title. The Owls are averaging 31 points per game, and they face a Marshall defense that has allowed over 30.2 points per game on the road this season. The Thundering Herd have played a very soft schedule, with their opponents offensive average at a mere 21.6 points per game.

The Owls defense has been hard to score on. Their opponents have averaged 25.9 points per game, but Rice has held them to a mere 12.4 points when they are playing at home. The Owls have a very strong run bias this year, and that should suit them well against a Thundering Herd defense that has allowed over 150 rushing yards per game. When playing on the road Marshall is giving up 176 rushing yards per game while the Owls are running for 240 yards in home games.

The Owls have been a great team to back the last two seasons. They are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall. The Thundering Herd are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. With a conference title on the line, and the backing of their home crowd I expect the Owls to come ready to play. I like their chances to pull off an upset, but we will take the points because this one will be close either way.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Northern Illinois -

Northern Illinois could potentially bust the BCS for the second straight season. The No. 16 Huskies will try for their third consecutive conference title tonight, and we are getting a pretty favorable line on them in this matchup against Bowling Green. It seems the oddsmakers are undervaluing the only MAC school to ever earn a BCS bowl bid. The Huskies are led by Heisman Trophy candidate Jordan Lynch at the quarterback position, and he figures to be a matchup nightmare for the Falcons.

Bowling Green has done a decent job defensively this season, but they have yet to face a dynamic dual threat quarterback like Lynch. He has thrown for over 2,400 yards with a 22:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and he is the Huskies leading rushing with 1,755 yards and 20 touchdowns. I don't see a scenario when the Falcons can slow the Huskies down offensively. Northern Illinois averages 42.8 points per game, while the Falcons are almost 10 points behind at 33 points per game on the road.

Northern Illinois is continuously undervalued by the oddsmakers. That has led to a 25-9-1 ATS record in their last 35 conference games. The Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win, and they are 5-1-1 in their last seven games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. I think the Huskies defense will be able to slow the Falcons down, but Bowling Green will struggle just like every other team in the MAC to find a way to stop Jordan Lynch.

3* Main Event on Cincinnati +

The Bearcats are playing with a lot more incentive than Louisville in what could be the last Keg of Nails rivalry game in the foreseeable future. Cincinnati has a chance to get the conference's automatic BCS berth if they can get a win over Louisville tonight, and Central Florida losses to SMU on Saturday. The Bearcats have won six straight coming into this matchup, and they have covered the spread in four of those six games.

The Cincinnati Bearcats have been hard to stop on their home field. They have a perfect 5-0 record in home games, and they are scoring an impressive 43 points per game. The strength of this Bearcats team is actually the defense. They have held opponents to a mere 15.4 points per game at home. They have an outstanding run defense, allowing just 92 rushing yards per game on three yards per carry. That gives them a big matchup advantage over a Louisville team that has a slight run-bias this year.

The Cardinals opened the season with several dominating wins. That earned them a little more respect from the oddsmakers than deserved, and they have now failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games. Louisville is 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference games, and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record. The Bearcats on the other hand are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games, and they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. I think the hungry dog fights harder, and the hungrier dog in this game is Cincinnati.

3* No Doubt Rout on South Carolina -

The Clemson Tigers have played some very soft opponents the last four weeks, and I think that has them unprepared to face a top tier team like South Carolina. The Gamecocks are a perfect 6-0 at home, and their offense will have no problem keeping past with Clemson in this game. South Carolina averages 36.7 points per game at home, and they have been outstanding in both running and passing the ball this season.

The Tigers defense looks better statistically than they actually are. They have faced a much softer schedule than the Gamecocks. I think the Gamecocks have a big day on the ground in this matchup. The Tigers are allowing 171 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry when playing on the road. South Caroling's ground game has been solid, gaining 217 yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry at home this year.

The Gamecocks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against ACC opponents. They are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against a team with a winning record. The Tigers on the other hand have been a bit letdown in that spot. They are just 1-5 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record. In the last four head-to-head meetings between these teams, South Carolina is a perfect 4-0 ATS, and with home field advantage today that trend will continue.

4* Vegas Insider on Notre Dame +

This is way too many points for a game that Notre Dame will have several significant matchup advantages. The Irish have a very balanced offensive attack, and Stanford's defense should get caught off-guard several times throughout this game. The Cardinal have a solid run defense, but Notre Dame has gained 310 of their 431 yards through the air in road games.

Notre Dame is averaging 32.8 points per game on the road this season, so I don't think Stanford's home field advantage will be much of a factor. With Notre Dame throwing the ball so well, the Cardinal secondary could be in for a very long day. They have allowed a completion percentage above 60 percent in home games, and have allowed opponents an average of 281 passing yards at home this season.

These teams are just one game apart in record, so a line over two touchdowns seems to be a little inappropriate at this point in the season. In head-to-head meetings between these teams, the Irish have a 5-2 record when playing at Stanford. The Irish are 16-4 ATS in road games against poor passing defenses that are allowing 250 passing yards per game or more. I expect this game to be much closer than the oddsmakers expect given the way these teams match up.

3* Total Dominator on Iowa State/West Virginia UNDER

Iowa State is coming off a 34 point performance against the worst team in the Big 12. I think that strong offensive performance has this line inflated above the mark it should be. The Cyclones have been held to 17 points or less in three of their last four games. They are on the road this week, and playing in a very hostile environment, so it seems extremely unlikely they will match last weeks performance offensively.

Defensively the Cyclones have performed well in recent weeks. They held TCU to just 21 points, and posted a shutout in last week's game against the Jayhawks. The Mountaineers have just four wins this season, so it is safe to say they are not a very good team. West Virginia has a slight pass bias this year, and that plays into the defensive strength of the Cyclones. They have held opposing quarterbacks to just 228 yards per game.

This matchup falls in to a system to play on the under when the total is between 49.5 to 56 points, when one team is coming off a performance in which they allowed 5.5 yards per pass attempt or less in their last game, and both teams have five or less offensive starters returned from last season. This system is 65-29 in favor of the under.

4* No Brainer on Alabama -

The nation's defending national champs are an easy call in this game against Auburn. The Tigers are coming off a hard fought battle against Georgia, and it is a game they should have lost if not for a late Hail Mary play. They won't catch breaks like they did in that matchup against a top rated defense like the Crimson Tide's. Alabama has held opponents to just 16.5 points per game on the road this year.

Auburn relies heavily on their ability to run the ball. Alabama's front seven is one of the best in college football. The Crimson Tide have held opponents to a mere 91 rushing yards per game on three yards per carry. They have put up those numbers against teams whose offensive average has been 180 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry. Auburn averages 50 running plays of their 71 total offensive possessions. That gives them a huge matchup advantage in this game.

The Crimson Tide are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games. This matchup also fits into a system to play on road teams like Alabama when they have allowed 14 points or less in two straight games, and they are against an opponent that is coming off a game in which 80 or more total points were scored. This system is 25-7 (78%) against the spread.

5* ACC Game of the Year on Syracuse +

Boston College is a team that is very overrated. Their defense is horrible on the road allowing 30.6 points per game, and three of their four losses this season have come when playing away from their home crowd. The Eagles live and die by their ability to run the ball, and that is something they simply will not be able to do today against Syracuse.

The Orange boast one of the best front sevens in the conference. In home games they have held opponents to a mere 79 rushing yards per game on 2.6 yards per carry. The defense as a whole has been solid for Syracuse. They are allowing 16.6 points per game at home. The defensive line is a great pass rushing unit, and combined with the outstanding secondary they have held opposing quarterbacks to a 54.3 percent completion rate in home games.

Boston College is 2-9 ATS in road games over the lat two seasons. The Orange on the other hand are 18-3 ATS in home games when they are coming off a performance in which they allowed 75 or less rushing yards. This matchup also fits a system to play against a road team in a game involving two teams allowing 21 to 28 points per game when they are coming off a win by six points or less. This system is 57-26 ATS over the last 10 seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Florida +

This is too many points for the Gators to be receiving in a rivalry game. Florida is averaging 24.3 points per game at home this season. Three of their four wins have come at home, which gives them a big advantage in this matchup. There is no denying the fact that Florida State scores a lot of points, but their production on both ends of the field takes a big hit when they are on the road.

The biggest weakness for the Seminoles has been their defense against the run. They are allowing over 130 rushing yards per game, which is almost half of their total yardage allowed. The Gators have been very good when running the ball, gaining 158 rushing yards per game at home. Florida may not have a great overall record, but they are definitely a good enough team to stay within four touchdowns to their in-state rival.

This matchup fits into a system to play against road favorites like Florida State when they are allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards per carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempts in their last two games. This system is 67-31 (68%) against the spread. It is a great tool to identify teams the oddsmakers have overvalued.

5* AAC Total of the Year on UConn/Rutgers UNDER

The total on this game has been set far too high given the complete lack of offense we have seen from these teams this year. Rutgers has scored 17 points or less in four of their last five games. The only game they managed to go over 17 points was a 23 point performance against Temple. They have not had a lot of success finding the endzone in conference play, and that won't change today against a UConn defense that has been very stingy in home games.

The Huskies are not putting many points on their board either. They average 17.4 points per game overall, and the offense takes a small step in the wrong direction at home averaging just 16 points. They run a balanced offensive attack, but have had little to no success regardless of how they try to move the ball. UConn averages 88 rushing yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry. The Rutgers defense has been tough against the run, holding its opponents to 3.2 yards per carry. The Huskies are also completing a mere 50.9 percent of their pass attempts this season for 204 yards.

This matchup fits a system to play the under when one of the teams, in this case Rutgers, has been beaten by the spread by 42 or more points in their last five games and they are playing an opponent like UConn that has been beaten by by the spread by 49 or more points in their last seven games. This system has a record of 47-20 (70.1%) in favor of the under. With the way these teams matchup, I think we will see more of a defensive battle than an offensive showcase.

4* Heavy Hitter on Pittsburgh +

The Miami Hurricanes might be the most overrated team in the conference, and they will struggle on the road against Pittsburgh today. The Panthers have a big advantage defensively in this game. They have held opponents to 25 points per game at home this season, which is impressive considering their opponents offensive scoring average is over 33 points per game. Miami on the other hand has allowed 33.2 points per game on the road, and have face opponents whose scoring average is only 26.2 points per game.

The Panthers are averaging 27.7 points at home, gaining the majority of their yardage through the air. They are completing 61.6 percent of their pass attempts this season for 233 yards, and have the luxury of facing a Hurricanes defense that has given up a 66.7 percent completion rate and 273 passing yards per game on the road. Miami's secondary is soft, and that will give Pittsburgh a very big advantage in this game.

The Panthers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record on the road. This matchup fits a system to play against a road team like Miami when they have failed to cover the spread in six or more of their last eight games, and they have won between 60% to 80% of their games on the season straight up. This system is 65-26 against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Texas Longhorns -

The Texas Longhorns are the hot team coming into this Thursday college football matchup against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Longhorns have won six of their last seven games, including impressive wins over Oklahoma, TCU and West Virginia. The Red Raiders are moving in the opposite direction having lost four straight games, all by a margin greater than seven-points.

The Red Raiders opened the season with a big run, but teams have quickly learned how to defend them since they are such a one-sided team. They pass the ball at a near 2:1 ratio over the run, and the Longhorns secondary is one of the best in the Big 12 which gives Texas a significant matchup advantage. The Longhorns have held opposing quarterbacks to a 55.4 percent completion rate for 207 passing yards per game.

Texas Tech has a history of struggling in conference play. The Red Raiders are 1-10 ATS after playing in three straight conference games. This matchup fits a system to play against road teams like Texas Tech that have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games, when they are a team that has won 60% to 80% of their games straight-up on the season. This system is 65-26 (71%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Mississippi State +

Ole Miss has struggled on the road this season posting a 2-2 record. They are scoring a mere 26.2 points per game in those road games, and that is a big problem against a Mississippi State team that is putting up 32.5 points per game at home. The Rebels are in another tough spot since the Bulldogs are fighting for bowl eligibility against their in-state rival.

The Ole Miss defense has been torched by good passing teams. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just shy of 64 percent of their pass attempts for 223 yards per game. The Bulldogs definitely qualify as a good passing team. They are completing over 60 percent of their pass attempts for 244 yards per game. I have Mississippi State putting up a big number against this Rebel's defense that has been crushed in road games this season.

The Rebels have a history of falling apart at the end of the season. They are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games played in the month of November. The Bulldogs on the other hand have posted a 4-1 ATS record in their last give games following an ATS win, and a 6-1 ATS record in home games against teams that are .500 or better on the road. In the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams the home team has a 4-1 ATS advantage.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Oklahoma State +

The Baylor Bears have benefited from a very soft schedule this year. That ends this weekend when they take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Oklahoma State is averaging 40.4 points per game. They will easily be the best team Baylor has faced this season. The Cowboys are a very strong running team, gaining 171 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. They are also gaining over 250 passing yards per game.

I don

4* Total No Brainer on Kansas/Iowa State UNDER

It seems very unlikely that these teams will combine for 46 or more points in this game. Neither team has been very efficient on offense. Kansas is averaging a mere 17.4 points per game overall, and when playing on the road that scoring average drops to a paltry 12.5 points. The Jayhawks offense has really struggled on the road, gaining an average of just 272 total yards of offense.

The Iowa State Cyclones have also had problems getting points on the board. They are scoring 21.2 points per game this season. In fact, things have been so bad for the Cyclones that they are playing with their backup quarterback. Grant Rohach has been horrible, completing just 53% of his pass attempts and throwing a mere two touchdowns and five interceptions. They do also have Sam Richardson available, but Rohach is projected to be the starter in this game. If Richardson does get some playing time, they Cyclones offense does not improve at all.

The under is 16-6 in Iowa State

3* No Doubt Rout on Tennessee -

The Tennessee Volunteers are a lot better than they get credit for. They have faced a very tough schedule this season, but have still posted a 4-2 record when playing at home. The Volunteers average 34.2 points per game on their home field, and have dominated opponents with a strong running game. They are gaining 232 rushing yards in those games on 5.4 yards per carry. That gives them a big matchup advantage against a Commodores team that is allowing 148 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry.

Defensively the Volunteers are a very strong team. They have held opponents to 25.7 points per game, which may not seem impressive at first glance, but it starts to look pretty good when you consider the fact that their opponents have a scoring average of 31.5 points per game. Tennessee

3* Total Annihilator on UConn/Temple UNDER

The total on this game seems to be much higher than it should be given the fact that neither of these teams has been very good at getting points on the board this year. UConn averages just 16.2 points per game. They may face a soft temple defense, but that won

3* Total Dominator on Wisconsin/Minnesota UNDER

There is no reason the total should be set this high. Wisconsin has one of the Big Ten

4* Total Dominator on Utah/Washington State UNDER

The Utah Utes have not been putting a lot of points on the board when playing on the road this season. In fact, they average just 17 points per game in their four road games. They have struggled to run the ball, and that is a big issue for an offense with such a strong run bias. Things will not be any easier in this matchup against Washington State. The Cougars have held opponents to just 3.2 yards per carry when playing at home.

I don

5* Vegas Insider on Notre Dame +

There is no reason for Notre Dame to be an underdog in this game. The Irish have just one loss at home this season, and it came against an Oklahoma team that is in another class when compared by BYU. The Irish also have the benefit of coming off a bye week, so they have had plenty of time to prepare for the Cougars. Notre Dame should have plenty of motivation coming into this week

5* Big Ten Total of the Year on Nebraska/Penn State UNDER

The total on this game has been set far too high for a game featuring two quality Big Ten defenses. Nebraska

3* Total Annihilator on Arkansas/Mississippi State UNDER

The total for this game seems to be much higher than it should be given the complete lack of offensive production from these teams. Mississippi State is averaging a mere 20 points per game when playing on the road this season. They are a team that has been plagued with inopportune turnovers recently, committing seven in their past three games. The Bulldogs may average 433 yards per game, but they have blown several drives when they get close to the red zone.

Arkansas has also had a lot of trouble getting points on the board. They average just 20.4 points per game overall this season. They are a very one-sided offense, running the ball 40 times per game to just 25 pass attempts. When they do throw the ball, they complete 47.5% of their attempts for 149 yards. They are not a team that can score quickly, and that makes the under very favorable. I expect Mississippi State to stack an extra player in the box and shut down Arkansas ground game, which will severely diminish their ability to score points.

Mississippi State is 23-9 in favor of the under when playing against a team with a losing record. The under is also 8-2 when the Bulldogs are coming off a bye week. Arkansas has a 4-0 record in favor of the under when they are coming off a bye week. Both of these teams have had defensive problems this season, and with both teams coming off a bye, I have to believe they used the extra preparation time to improve defensively.

4* Heavy Hitter on Houston -

The Houston Cougars should be a much larger favorite in this game. Their offense has average 35.6 points per game this season, while Cincinnati is scoring a mere 27.4 points per game when playing on the road. Cincinnati

3* No Doubt Rout on Navy +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this game given the way these teams match up. Navy is a very strong running team, gaining 311 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry. They have a huge matchup advantage against San Jose State, because the Spartans run defense has been very soft this year. San Jose State has allowed an average of 211 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry when playing at home.

The Midshipmen are scoring an impressive 32 points per game. They should have no problem matching, or even exceeding that number against a Spartans defense that has allowed opponents to score 31.1 points per game. The Spartans opponents have an offensive average of just 27.3 points per game, so the fact that San Jose State is allowing more points than their opponents typically score indicates just how bad their defense is.

Navy has performed well in the road underdog position over the past several years. They have a 53-20 ATS record as a road dog, and they are 15-4 ATS when playing against a Mountain West opponent. This matchup falls into a system to play on road underdogs like Navy when they are averaging 5.6 to 6.2 yards per play, and playing a bad defense that has allowed 5.6 to 6.2 yards per play after seven or more games in the season. This system is 38-9 ATS over the last five seasons.

4* Heavy Hitter on UNLV +

Home field advantage or not, there is no reason Air Force should be favorites in this game. The Falcons defense has been a complete joke this year giving up an average of 38.1 points per game. When playing at home they see a very small amount of improvement allowing 36.8 points per game. The Falcons run defense has been atrocious, allowing 244 rushing yards per game on five years per carry. Their secondary is not much better, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.5% of their pass attempts and giving up 261 passing yards per game at home.

UNLV has had no problem getting points on the board this year. They average 28.9 points per game, and when playing on the road they have stepped their level of play up to average an even 30 points. They are a very strong running team, gaining 181 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. However, the greatest strength of this Rebels team is their ability to move the ball through the air. UNLV has completed 68.8% of its pass attempts in road games for 260 passing yards per game.

The Falcons do not get a lot of benefit when playing at home. In fact, they are 4-15 ATS in home games over the last three seasons. They are 2-10 ATS when listed as a home favorite. The Rebels come into this game with a 6-2 ATS record in their last eight games overall, and they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games when coming off a straight up loss. Take the points with the road team, but don't be surprised if UNLV ends up winning this game.

3* No Doubt Rout on Toledo +

The Toledo Rockets will be the more motivated team in this matchup with Northern Illinois. The Rockets are playing on their home field, and in contention for a conference championship if they can pick up a win over the Huskies tonight. I expect the fan base to be extra fired up tonight with a ranked conference opponent in town.

The Rockets are scoring 46.2 points per game at home this season. They have an outstanding ground attack that has accumulated 247 rushing yards on 6.3 yards per carry overall, and they increase those numbers to 333 rushing yards on seven yards per carry when playing at home. Northern Illinois has benefited from a very soft schedule this season, and that has there defensive stats looking better than they truly are. The fact is, Northern Illinois opponents only average 22.7 points per game, yet the Huskies have allowed an average of 25.2 points per game.

Northern Illinois is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record. You should play against a road team like Northern Illinois when they have gained 475 yards or more in the previous game, and are playing against an opponent that is averaging 6.75 yards per play or more in their last two consecutive games. This system is 74-38 against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Miami OH +

This is simply too many points for Buffalo to cover, especially since this game is being played on the road. Buffalo allows an average of 36.4 points per game in road games, and they have been extremely soft against the run in those games. That gives Miami OH something to look forward to since they are a very run-biased team.

Buffalo is coming off a tough road loss last week, a game they lost by double-digits. I think the Bulls will struggle to match their average of 29.6 points per game against the Redhawks. Miami has held opponents to 26 points per game at home this season, and if they play even an average game defensively the Bulls would have to post a shutout to have any chance to cover this spread.

The Bulls are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams averaging less than 310 yards of offense per game. Miami Ohio on the other hand has a 21-8 ATS record when playing against a team that has won 60% to 75% of their games on the season. Take the points because the Redhawks defense should get them the cover, and the Bulls poor defensive play will ensure Miami Ohio gets enough points on the board to cover the spread.

3* Total No Brainer on USC/Stanford UNDER

This total completely undervalues both of these defensive units. The Stanford Cardinal have allowed a mere 19.4 points per game this season. When playing on the road they have stepped up their level of play slightly, holding opponents to an even 19 points per game. The run defense has been solid, giving up 99 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry. That is big trouble for a USC offense that gets almost half their yardage on the ground and averages 38 running plays to just 26 pass attempts per game.

The Trojans defense has played every bit as good as Stanford

3* No Doubt Rout on Texas Tech +

After seeing Baylor struggle in the first half against Oklahoma I am confident the Red Raiders are the play in this game. Texas Tech has an explosive offense, something the Sooners are lacking this season. They may not average 47 points per game on the road like Baylor, but their 40.5 points per game on the road is close enough that the 28 points they are being spotted is simply too many.

The Red Raiders have an excellent secondary unit. They have held opposing quarterbacks to a 56.8% pass completing rate for just 218 passing yards per game. They should definitely be able to keep the Bears off there typical pace of 375+ passing yards. Their front seven has also performed well against the run this year. In their four road games they have held opposing backs to just 3.9 yards per carry.

This is not a typical road game for Texas Tech. These teams are actually playing on a neutral field at Cowboys Stadium. I don

3* No Doubt Rout on Oklahoma State -

The Oklahoma State Cowboys are a much better team than the Texas Longhorns. The Cowboys are averaging 40.7 points per game, and the offense has not been slowed down at all when playing away from home. Oklahoma State averages 41.6 points per game on the road this year.

The Longhorns biggest defensive weakness is their front seven. This defensive unit has allowed opponents to rush for 185 yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry. That gives the Cowboys a big matchup advantage considering they have gained 221 rushing yards per game on the road off of 5.2 yards per carry. The Cowboys total offense on the road has accumulated 476 yards per game, and they should have no problem outscoring the Longhorns in this matchup.

The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against Big 12 opponents. They are also 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game, and 7-0 ATS when the offense accumulates less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Oklahoma State played a bad game statistically against Kansas last week, yet they still walked away with a 42-6 victory. I expect them to come out playing at peak levels against the Longhorns this week.

4* Heavy Hitter on Miami -

The Hurricanes and Blue Devils are very evenly matched offensively, but Miami has a huge matchup advantage when it comes to their defense. The Hurricanes have held opponents to 23 points per game, allowing a mere 3.5 yards per carry on the ground in road games. They have held opposing quarterbacks to a 58.9% completion percentage for 233 passing yards. Meanwhile, the offense has put up 35 points per game, gaining five yards per carry on the ground and 267 passing yards per game.

Duke has allowed its opponents to run for 190 rushing yards per game when the Blue Devils are playing at home. The defense has given up an average of 416 yards per game in their six home games, while the Hurricanes have held opponents to an average of just 385 yards per game overall. If you look at the strength of schedule these teams have played Duke is scoring less points against softer defenses, and they are allowing more points against poor offensive units than the Hurricanes have this season.

Duke is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games when coming off three or more consecutive ATS wins. Miami is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning record at home, and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Blue Devils have posted a 2-5 ATS record against teams with a winning record and that trend continues today.

4* Total Dominator on Michigan/Northwestern UNDER

The total on this game seems to be quite a big higher than it should be. The Wolverines are averaging just 23.3 points per game when playing on the road. Their offense has struggled to move the ball, gaining a mere 98 rushing yards in those games on 2.2 yards per carry. That could be big trouble against a Northwestern front seven that has performed so well this year, especially considering how run biased the Wolverines offense has been.

Northwestern has also struggled with consistency on offense this season. They have gone under the total in six of their nine games. The defense has played well, especially when playing at home. The offense should struggle against the Wolverines defense because of the same issue Michigan faces offensively. Northwestern is a very run biased team, and the Wolverines front seven has allowed opponents to average a mere 108 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per carry.

The under is 8-0 in Northwestern

5* ACC Game of the Year on North Carolina +

The Tar Heels are the better team in this game, and they should not be receiving points against the Panthers. North Carolina averages 27.4 points per game this season. They are a very strong passing team, completing 64.1% of all pass attempts for 292 yards per game. They have also been successful running the ball, averaging 119 rushing yards per game which is right in line with the figures Pittsburgh has put up.

The biggest edge for North Carolina is their defense. They have held opponents to 25.2 points per game, but those opponents offensive average has been 29.2 points. They are allowing a 57.8% pass completion rate on the road for a mere 188 passing yards per game. That gives them a big matchup advantage against a Pittsburgh team that gets over 65% of their total offensive production through the air.

This matchup falls into a system to play against home teams when the line is +3 to -3 and they are off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams whose offense averages between 21-28 points per game. This system is 25-5 (83%) against the spread. Pittsburgh has scored over 21 points just once in their last three games and twice in their last six games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Illinois +

The Ohio State Buckeyes might just be the most overrated team in the Big Ten this season. Three of their last five games have been decided by 10 points or less. The Buckeyes defense has allowed 21.3 points per game on the road this season, and they will face an Illinois team that has scored an average of 34.4 points per game at home.

The Illinois Illini are a strong passing team. They have completed 65% of their pass attempts for an average of 289 yards per game. That gives them a key matchup advantage against a Buckeyes defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 61.1% of all pass attempts for 268 yards when playing on the road. Ohio State is simply not good enough defensively to stop the Illini so covering a 33-point line on the road against a conference opponent will prove a very difficult task to accomplish.

You should play against road favorites that are allowing 100 or less rushing yards per game when they gained 5.5 or more yards per carry in their last two straight games. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have overvalued. It has resulted in a 44-16 (73%) record against the spread since 1992. Take the points with the home team in this game.

3* Total Annihilator on West Virginia/Kansas UNDER

The total on this game has been set far too high considering how poorly these teams have played offensively this season. West Virginia averages a mere 18.2 points per game on the road. They have struggled to move the ball on the ground or through the air, gaining a total average of 348 yards per game in their five road games this season.

Kansas has also struggled on offense. The Jayhawks are scoring an embarrassing 15.9 points per game overall. When playing at home they do not get much of a boost averaging 18.6 points per game. The Jayhawks offense has accumulated an average of just 295 total yards per game. The fact that West Virginia has struggled defensively should be a non-issue since Kansas is its own worst enemy.

When Kansas is coming off a blowout loss by 35 points or more against a conference opponent the under is a perfect 8-0 over the last three seasons. The under is also 5-2 in West Virginia

3* Total Dominator on Iowa State/Oklahoma UNDER

The Cyclones have certainly played poorly on defense, but they face an Oklahoma team that has scored over 40 points just once this season. It would take a huge offensive number from the Sooners to send this game over the total, and that scenario seems very unlikely given how bad the offense has played at times this year.

The Cyclones have been held to 17 points or less in three of their last four games. They are up against a Sooners defense that is allowing a mere 14.8 points per game at home this season. The Sooners have faced a very tough schedule this year, and Iowa State lakes the talent to match the average points allowed from Oklahoma.

The under is 12-3 in Oklahoma

3* Main Event on Washington +

The Huskies and Bruins share losses against two common opponents. Washington lost on the road to Stanford, and at home against Oregon. The Bruins also have losses to Stanford and Oregon this season. The Huskies margin of loss in those games was a lot lower than it was for the Bruins, which indicates that they are the better team coming into this game against UCLA. In fact, against all five common opponents this season the Huskies have averaged 36.6 points per game while the Bruins have scored just 27.4 points per game.

The Huskies offense should have no problem outpacing the Bruins in this game. Washington averages 37.2 points per game this season, gaining 229 rushing yards per game and throwing for an additional 287 yards. Their 516 yards of offense is over 50 yards per game more than what the Bruins have been able to accumulate this year. UCLA has been soft against the run allowing 176 rushing yards per game on four yards per carry, and their secondary is allowing a 62% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks.

This matchup falls into a system to play on road underdogs like Washington when they are averaging over 450 yards of offense, and coming off a game in which they gained 7.25 yards per play or more. This system is 37-10 (78%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Washington is also 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Georgia Tech +

There is simply no reason for the Yellow Jackets to be a double-digit underdog in this game. Georgia Tech averages 34.2 points per game this season. Their offensive attack is centered around the run, gaining 312 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry. Home field advantage will not be much of a factor since Georgia Tech's production actually increases on the road to 329 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry.

Clemson has struggled defensively at home this year. They are allowing 24 points per game in home games, and have given up a 61.3% pass completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. Their 9.3 yards per attempt allowed gives Georgia Tech a big matchup advantage tonight. The Yellow Jackets are not a team that throws the ball very often, but they will throw in a third and long situation. If they can convert 61% of those pass attempts like the Tigers have allowed, then Georgia Tech will not only have a chance to cover the spread, but possibly pull off a very big upset.

The smart play in this game is on Georgia Tech plus the points. Clemson has lost three of their last four games against the spread. This matchup falls into a system to play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Georgia Tech when they are coming off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, and they are winning 60% to 80% of their games on the season playing another team with a winning record. This system is 34-10 (77.3%) against the spread.

3* Main Event on Ball State +

These teams are very evenly matched so there is a lot of value on Ball State getting a touchdown plus the half-point hook. The Cardinals are 9-1 this season, including an impressive 7-3 record against the spread. Their offense has not been slowed down when playing on the road, scoring 41.2 points per game in their five road games.

With the exception of their season opener against Iowa, Northern Illinois has benefited from a very soft schedule. That ends tonight in this matchup against Ball State. The Cardinal's defense has been solid holding opponents to 23.6 points per game. The Cardinals secondary has held opposing quarterbacks to a 57.4% completion percentage and 225 passing yards per game. That is a key matchup advantage in this game against a Huskies team that relies on the pass for half their total yardage when playing at home.

Ball State has been a great team to back on the road for years. They have a 40-14 ATS record in their last 54 road games. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against conference opponents. In head-to-head matchups between these teams the road team owns a 4-0 ATS record. Northern Illinois is also 0-3-1 ATS against a team with a winning record, and I think they will struggle for a win against the Cardinals tonight.

4* Vegas Insider on Toledo -

The Toledo Rockets are a much better team offensively than Buffalo. They average 45 points per game at home this season, and should score at-will against a Bulls defense that has allowed an average of 32.7 points per game on the road. The Rockets have an outstanding ground attack that has gained them an average of 239 rushing yards per game on 6.3 yards per carry and they should run all over Buffalo since the Bulls allow 183 rushing yards per game on the road.

The Buffalo defense has struggled to stop the run, but that will not be their biggest vulnerability in this matchup. It is the Bulls secondary that will be the issue. They have allowed opponents to complete 62.3% of their pass attempts on the road for 269 passing yards per game. The defense as a whole has given up 451 yards per game in road games, and that has led to a 2-2 record for Buffalo.

This matchup falls into a system to play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Toledo when they are coming off a win by 35 points or more. This system is 70-34 against the spread over the past 10 seasons. This matchup also falls into a second system to play on home favorites off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent, when their opponent is coming off three straight wins over conference rivals. This system is 81-38 against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UCLA +

The Bruins are clearly the better team, and even without Jordan James they should be able to win this game on the road. After back-to-back losses to Stanford and Oregon it seems the oddsmakers have given up hope on UCLA. They responded last week with a 22 point win over Colorado. They have impressive road wins over Nebraska and Utah this season.

The Bruins are averaging 37.2 points per game this season. They average 194 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry. With James out, they will still catch a break against a Wildcats defense that has allowed 161 rushing yards per game on four yards per carry. The Bruins are a dual threat team. They are completing 69.2% of their pass attempts for 268 yards.

The Bruins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, indicating the oddsmaker

5* CFB Total of the Year on Pitt/Notre Dame UNDER

This total is set far to high given the way these teams matchup. Notre Dame should struggle to score against this outstanding Panthers secondary. The Irish have a balanced offensive attack, but rely on on the passing game for almost two thirds of their total yardage. Pittsburgh's secondary has held opponents to a 58.9% completion percentage for just 202 yards per game this season. That is 106 yards less than what the Irish are used to averaging through the air in road games this season.

Pittsburgh should also struggle to find the endzone against this Notre Dame defense that has held opponents to 23 points per game. Notre Dame's opponents have averaged 28.8 points per game this season, and the fact that they are holding them to just 23 points indicates just out underrated of a unit they are. Pittsburgh's offensive numbers are a bit misleading thanks to a soft schedule to start the season. In the last two weeks they have scored an average just 15.5 points per game.

The under is 11-2 in Notre Dame's last 13 games when coming off a home win. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under in a game involving two teams that are wining 50 yards per game of their opponents in a non-conference matchup between two teams from automatic qualifying BCS conferences. The Irish are an independent, but still account for several games in this system because of their automatic qualification status. This system is 54-22 in favor of the under over the last five seasons.

4* Heavy Hitter on Virginia Tech +

The Virginia Tech Hokies are averaging 22.1 points per game. While that number does not match the scoring average from Miami, it is still very respectable given the schedule they have played. The Hokies opponents have a defensive average of 25.1 points per game allowed, while Miami's has faced teams allowing 28.2 points per game.

Virginia Tech's defense has a strong advantage in this game. They have held opponents to a mere 16.9 points per game, when their opponents have averaged over 30 points per game offensively. Miami has allowed over 20 points per game against much softer opponents that have scored a mere 24.2 points per game. The Hokies should have no problem shutting down Miami since they are a run biased team, and Virginia Tech has allowed a mere 2.9 yards per carry this year.

The Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 20 points. The Hokies have posted a 7-3 record in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. These trends indicate the fact that Virginia Tech's offense is playing well, and the Hurricanes have a lot of trouble responding to a bad loss.

5* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Utah +

Arizona State is getting too much respect from the oddsmakers this week. The Sun Devils are averaging 39 points per game on the road, but Utah should have no problem keeping pace with them since they have averaged 40.4 points per game at home. The Utes ground attack has gained 205 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry. The Sun Devils defensive strength is against the pass not the run, which gives Utah a clear matchup advantage in this game.

Arizona State's defense has yielded an embarrassing 33.3 points per game on the road. Their opponent

3* Total Dominator on Syracuse/Maryland UNDER

This total is set far to high for a matchup featuring two very poor offensive teams. Maryland's offensive numbers are a bit misleading since they have played such a soft schedule this season. They scored just 10 points against Wake Forest, and had the game against Clemson been closer I don't think the Tigers defense would have allowed them to score 27 points in that game.

Syracuse has averaged just 17 points per game on the road this year. They will face a Maryland defense that has held its opponents to a mere 21.5 points per game in home games. The Orange are a run biased team, and the Terrapins have allowed a mere 3.6 yards per carry overall this season.

Maryland is coming off a bye week, and after giving up an average of 37 points in their last two games you can be certain they made defensive adjustments with the extra time off. The Orange defense has been built to shutdown strong passing teams, so don't expect the Terrapins to have a strong passing game in this matchup. The under is 17-5 in Syracuse's last 22 games against teams averaging 275 or more passing yards per game.

3* No Doubt Rout on Indiana -

Few teams in the Big Ten are scoring as many points as Indiana. The Hoosiers are averaging 43.5 points per game at home and they will face one of the softest defenses in the conference this week when they host Illinois. The Illini have struggled on the road, averaging just 20 points per game with abysmal ground and air attacks.

The Illini defense has given up 286 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry on the road this season. The secondary has been horrible allowing a 67.8% pass completion rate for 256 yards per game. That yardage has come on just 29 pass attempts since teams rarely need to throw the ball against Illinois. Indiana is gaining 333 passing yards per game so I can only imagine what kind of numbers they will put up against Illinois this week.

Last week Illinois managed to somehow stay within seven points of Penn State, getting them their third ATS win of the season. The Illini are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. They are also 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games against conference opponents. I expect the Hoosiers to score at will in this game and Illinois will simply not be able to keep pace.

4* Big Ten Total of the Month on Penn St/Minn UNDER

The way these teams matchup plays strongly in favor of the under. Penn State does not score a lot of points on the road, averaging just 20.3 points per game. They will struggled to match that number against a Minnesota defense that has been solid against conference opponents.

Don't think for a second the Golden Gophers are going to have a big offensive performance. They are a very run biased team, so expect Penn State to stack an extra player upfront to defend them. The weakest link on the Nittany Lions defense is their secondary, but the Gophers average just 18 pass attempts per game. Penn State has held four of their last five opponents to 150 rushing yards or less, and that is trouble for a Gophers offense that gets two thirds of their total yardage on the ground.

The under is 20-5 in Penn State's last 25 games when they are coming off a straight up win in which they failed to cover the spread as a favorite. With the offensive strengths matching up to the defensive strengths of their opponent for both of these teams I expect this game to turn into a defensive battle. Expect a low scoring game with a lot of clock-killing drives centered on running the ball.

4* Vegas Insider on Florida -

These teams may share a similar 4-4 overall record, but the Gators are clearly the better team. Vanderbilt

3* No Doubt Rout on Iowa -

Fading the Boilermakers is an easy call in this matchup against a very undervalued Hawkeyes team. Purdue is averaging just 11.5 points per game this season, while their defense ranks them among the worst teams in the nation allowing 37.1 points per game. Purdue struggles to run the ball, averaging 70 rushing yards per game on 2.5 yards per carry, and they are completing just 49.2% of their pass attempts on the road.

The Iowa Hawkeyes have quietly put themselves into position to make a bowl game this season. With Michigan and Nebraska left on the schedule, the Hawkeyes know this will be their best chance to get that coveted sixth win of the season. I expect to see the offense come out and never take their foot off the gas against Purdue. The Hawkeyes are averaging 25.3 points per game this year, and they barely slow down on the road putting up 24.7 points per game. They should have no problem matching, or even exceeding that number against Purdue this week.

All teams respond to a loss differently. For the Hawkeyes, they respond by putting that loss behind them and moving forward. That has yielded them a 37-18-1 ATS record in their last 56 games following a straight up loss. The Boilermakers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 1-7 ATS against a team with a winning record. Expect a Hawkeyes blowout in this game.

3* Total Annihilator on Iowa State/TCU UNDER

The oddsmakers have set this total far too high base on the fact that the Cyclones defense has played so poorly this year. What they seem to have forgotten to take into account is how poorly the Horned Frogs have played on the road. TCU averages just 16 points per game in road games this season.

The Horned Frogs should have no problem slowing down a Cyclones team that is coming off a seven-point performance last week versus Kansas State. Iowa State has scored a mere seven points in two of their last three games. They offense would not have put up such a large number against Oklahoma State had the Cowboys not been blowout them out. I don

4* Total No Brainer on Louisville/UConn UNDER

The total on this game has been set far too high given the way these teams matchup. First of all, the Louisville defense has been tough to score on when playing on the road. They have allowed a mere 7.7 points per game, and they face a Huskies team that has averaged just 16.4 points per game this season.

Connecticut's defense is also being undervalued. The Huskies opponents have averaged 30.9 points per game this season, yet UConn has held them to just 25.5 points per game when playing at home. I expect the Huskies fan base to be extra fired up with a ranked opponent in town, and that should definitely slow the Cardinals down on offense. The Cardinals average almost 10 points per game less on the road than they do overall this season so crowd noise has obviously been an issue for them.

The under is 7-3 in Uconn's last 10 home games and 6-2 in Louisville's last eight games overall. The under is also 5-0 in Louisville's last five road games against a team with a losing home record. They are not a team that runs the score up on their opponents, and that is a huge factor favoring the under in this matchup. The Cardinals have not scored more than 35 points in any of their last four games and I expect that trend to continue this week.

4* Heavy Hitter on Oklahoma +

The Oklahoma Sooners are getting way too many points in what should be a very close game. if any team in the Big 12 has a chance to knock off the Bears it is certainly the 7-1 Oklahoma Sooners. Oklahoma has held opponents to just 18.7 points per game this seas. That is almost eight points per game less than their opponents offensive average, which speaks volumes about just how good this Sooners defense is.

Oklahoma can also score with some of the top teams in the nation. They average 31 points per game, and barely slow down when playing on the road at 29.7 points per game. Baylor has faced a very soft schedule this season, and their four conference games have come against four of the worst teams in the Big 12. I don't think the Bears are as good offensively nor defensively as the numbers their stories tell.

The Sooners are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week, which indicates they are a very well coached team. This matchup also falls into a system to play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Oklahoma when they failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games against an opponent that has covered the spread in two of their last three games. This system is a great way to identify teams being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has lead to a 209-129 (62%) ATS record.

3* No Doubt Rout on Ball State -

This game should be a blowout win for the Cardinals. Their offense is averaging 39.4 points per game this season, and they face a Central Michigan defense that has given up 34 points per game on the road. The Cardinals balanced offensive attack makes them a very difficult team to defend.

They are gaining 142 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry. The Chippewas have given up 4.8 yards per carry and an embarrassing 210 rushing yards per game defensively. The run defense is not even the weakest link on this Chippewas team. The secondary has allowed a 67.1% completion percentage from opposing quarterbacks, and when on the road they have allowed 251 passing yards per game.

Central Michigan is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning record at home. Ball State owns an 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 conference games, and they are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record. The oddsmakers have long undervalued the Cardinals, which has yielded Ball State backers a 21-7 ATS record in their last 28 games overall.

3* Main Event on Ohio +

This is simply too many points for Ohio to receive in a game that features two conference opponents sitting a top the MAC standings. Ohio and Buffalo share similar overall records, but the Bobcats have played the more difficult schedule in conference play. Buffalo has UMass and Kent State as two of their MAC wins this season, neither win doing much to impress.

The Bobcats are averaging 35.3 points per game on the road this season, so I don't expect home field to do much for the Bulls. Their balanced offensive attack has allowed the Bobcats to average 428 yards of offense per game, while the Bulls have averaged 378 yards of offense at home this season. The Bulls are also a one-sided offense because of their strong run bias. Ohio has held opponents 21.7 points per game this season and I expect them to continue to build on that average tonight.

While not a traditional bye week in the sense that they are getting 13-days of rest, the Bobcats are coming off 11-days of rest and have a 7-1-1 ATS record in their last nine games following a bye. They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record. The Bulls on the other hand have a 2-9-1 ATS record when they are coming off a bye, and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record on the road.

3* Total Dominator on Florida State OVER

I expect a shootout in this battle of undefeated teams. Miami is scoring an impressive 39.6 points per game this season. The Hurricane's defense has been average at best. Their opponents have scored an average of just 20.7 points per game this season, and they have held them right around their typical scoring average. If that remains true today, they will be giving up a lot of points to this Florida State team that is scoring 62.6 points per game.

The Seminoles offense has been unstoppable all year, and I don't think the Hurricanes are talented enough defensively to slow them down. They have scored almost double the amount of points their opponents have allowed on average this season. The Seminoles defense has played well this season, but they are definitely seeing their points allowed average increase with each conference game being played. Undefeated teams find ways to score even against the best defenses in football, and Miami should do just that this week.

The over is 9-0 in Florida State's last nine home games. It is also 12-3 in their last 15 home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in their previous game. Miami has posted a 6-2 record in favor of the over in their last eight road games. Given the fact that this is an in-state rivalry means that neither team will take their foot off the gas when they secure a large lead. Both of these teams have a lot of scoring potential, and it should show in what should be a very exciting matchup.

3* No Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech -

The Yellow Jackets are a very undervalued team this season. They have tough losses to Virginia Tech, Miami, and BYU this season. Those three teams have all been very strong defensively, which is the exact opposite of this week

3* Oddsmakers Error on Oklahoma State -

The venue should not be a big factor in this game so it is surprising to see the oddsmakers put out such a tight line. Oklahoma State has averaged 39 points per game on the road this season. They are gaining over 200 rushing yards per game away from home on 5.2 yards per carry. They face a Texas Tech defense that has allowed over 140 rushing yards per game.

Don't expect a lot of scoring from the Red Raiders. The Cowboys defense has held opponents to 19.6 points per game this season. Their run defense is solid, allowing a mere 3.2 yards per carry. Since Texas Tech has such a strong passing bias, it is the Cowboys secondary that will lead them to victory. They have held opponents to a 52.3% completion percentage this season, a full 10% less than what the Red Raiders are used to averaging.

This matchup falls into a system to play on a team like Oklahoma State when the line is between +3 to -2 and their defense forces 2.5 turnovers per game or more, after two consecutive games where they forced three or more turnovers. This system is 45-18 (71%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. I expect the Cowboys to dominate this game defensively and pick up a big win over Texas Tech.

4* Total Annihilator on ISU/K-State UNDER

The Kansas State defense is not getting enough credit in this game, and their offense is getting a little too much credit. The Wildcats held Baylor to a mere 35 points. The Bears aver averaging just shy of 70 points per game this season, so I can only imagine how difficult it will be for a team like Iowa State to find the end zone when they average just 25.4 points per game.

The Cyclones are not as bad as they look defensively. You have to remember, this is a team whose opponents have an offensive average of almost 36 points per game. They will catch a break this week against Kansas State. The Wildcats are not a team that accumulates a lot of yardage through the air. Their strong run bias is also a clock killer, which makes the under a very favorable side to be on. The Wildcats have gone under the total in four of their last five games.

In head-to-head meetings between these teams the under is 5-2 in the last seven games. The under is also 18-6 in Iowa State

3* Oddsmakers Error on Minnesota +

It is surprising that the oddsmakers still have not caught on to just how good this Golden Gophers team is. They have a 6-2 overall record this season with impressive wins over Nebraska and Northwestern. The Gophers defense has held opponents to 23.1 points per game when those opponents offensive average has been over 28 points per game. They are scoring 30.1 points per game and face one of the softest defenses in the Big Ten this week.

Indiana

5* No Limit on Northwestern +

The Northwestern Wildcats are a much better team than their 4-4 record. They had a great chance to pull off an upset against Ohio State, a game that was much closer than the final score. They were also one play away from a win over a Minnesota team that we now know is much better than most expected them to be. Also, that is the same Minnesota team that handed Nebraska an 11 points loss. Last week it took overtime for the Hawkeyes to pull off a win over the Wildcats. This is a team that could easily have a 7-1 record at this point in the season.

The biggest difference between these teams has been their strength of schedule. Nebraska looks like a much better team offensively than they actually are. They opponents defensive average has allowed 35.1 points per game, so it really is not that impressive that the Cornhuskers have managed to put up 39.9 points per game. Defensively the Cornhuskers have faced teams whose offensive average is a mere 25.6 points per game, and Nebraska has allowed an average of 24 points per game on defense. The Wildcats on the other hand have faced opponents whose offensive average is just over 29 points per game, yet Northwestern has held them to an average of 25.9 points.

The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game. This matchup falls into a system to play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like Nebraska when they are off an upset loss as a road favorite of seven or more points and playing in November. This system is 28-6 against the spread.

4* Heavy Hitter on Syracuse -

The Orange have put up an average of 40 points per game at home this season, while Wake Forest has scored a mere 15.7 points per game on the road. Syracuse is a strong running team that averages over 200 yards per game on the ground. They will face a Wake Forest defense that has allowed 207 rushing yards per game on the road on 4.4 yards per carry.

Syracuse will also have a defensive advantage in this game. They have held opponents to 22 points per game at home this season, while the Demon Deacons are allowing 28.7 points per game on the road. Syracuse has a strong run defense that has held opponents to 3.8 yards per carry overall this season, and 111 rushing yards on 3.2 yards per carry when playing at home.

Syracuse is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss by more than 20 points. They were beat handily by Georgia Tech in their last game, but have the benefit of coming off a bye week prior to facing the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is coming off a heart breaking loss on the road last week to Miami. That game had to take a lot of the steam out of this Demon Deacons team, and playing back-to-back weeks on the road gives the Orange another great matchup advantage.

3* Total Dominator on Wake Forest UNDER

The total on this game seems to be quite a bit higher than it should be. Syracuse has certainly done a lot of scoring at home this season, but the majority of those points have been accumulated facing much weaker opponents than Wake Forest. I don

4* No Brainer on NC State +

The Wolfpack are the better team, and have the luxury of playing at home when they host the in-state rival Tar Heels this week. North Carolina is averaging a mere 15.7 points per game on the road this season. The running game for the Tar Heels has been soft, gaining a mere 2.8 yards per carry this season. That is a big benefit to the Wolfpack who have struggled defending the run this season.

With the Tar Heels inability to move the ball on the ground, I expect the Wolfpack to put on a dominating defensive performance. They have played well at home this season, holding opponents to a 56.3% completion percentage and 193 passing yards per game. The Tar Heels have a slight pass bias this season, and they rely on the air attack to account for over 75% of their total yards. That is a big matchup advantage for the Wolfpack in this game.

The Tar Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games. They face a Wolfpack team that is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record on the road. When coming off a straight up loss NC State has responded with a 22-6-1 ATS record. Like many in-state rivalry games, the home team has a significant advantage, They are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. The underdog is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

3* Total Annihilator on Miss. St/South Carolina UNDER

The total on this game seems a bit high given how well both of these teams have played defensively. Also, it is worth noting that Connor Shaw and Mike Davis are listed as probably, but it is unlikely they will be playing at 100% this week. South Carolina has already been performing well under there season averages the past two weeks, and with two key players not at 100% I think their trend of under performing offensively will continue.

Mississippi State has allowed opponents an average of 22.5 points per game on the road this season. That is impressive given their opponents offensive average has been just shy of 30 points per game. They have held opponents to 359 yards of offense, and if they repeat that feat this week that will be a full 106 yards under the Gamecocks typical production levels. The Gamecocks are no slouch on defense, too. They have held opponents to 21 points per game when those opponents have average 30.1 points prior to facing South Carolina.

The under is 10-4 in the Bulldogs last 14 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. They have also posted a 46-19 record towards the under in their last 65 games following an ATS loss. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the under has a 4-1 record in the last five games. Expect a defensive battle today.

4* No Brainer on Penn State -

Illinois is really struggling right now. They have lost three straight games by a double-digit margin coming into this week

3* Total Annihilator on USC/Oregon State UNDER

The way these teams matchup puts a lot of value on the under. USC's greatest strength on defense is their secondary. They will face an Oregon State team that relies on the passing game for 86% of their total offensive production. Against a pass happy team like the Beavers I think USC can match their 19.2 points allowed average this season.

Oregon State is no slouch on defense either. Their run defense has held opponents to 138 yards per game, well below the 170 rushing yard average that the Trojans are used to. As far as the total is concerned, this game should play out in much like Oregon State's game with Stanford. I expect a defensive battle out of both teams.

The under is 13-3-1 in the Trojans last 17 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. It is also 5-2 in their last seven games against a team with a winning record. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when the game involves two good teams that are outgaining opponents by .6 to 1.2 yards per play after seven or more games in the season. This system is 138-76 to the under for the last 10 seasons.

3* Bailout Blowout on Louisiana-Monroe +

The Warhawks are 2-1 against conference opponents this season and they should be able to improve on that number today against Troy. The Trojans have squeaked by the past three weeks winning their games by a touchdown or less. Prior to this three game streak they lost three straight games. They have played a soft schedule in comparison to ULM.

The Trojans rely heavily on their quarterback to win games. Corey Robinson may be completing 70% of his pass attempts, but he also has eight interceptions this season. I expect Robinson to struggle against this ULM defense that has held opposing quarterbacks to a 50.8% completion rate this year.

The Warhawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Trojans on the other hand have a 4-10 ATS record in their last 14 home games. Troy's defense has given up a whopping 32.7 points per game, and with their stout secondary I think they have a strong enough matchup advantage to win this game. Since they are playing on the road we will take the points.

4* Vegas Insider on Memphis +

The oddsmakers have given too much credit to Cincinnati based on records alone. However, the Bearcats have played an extremely soft schedule. Their five wins this season have come against opponents with a combined record of 5-33, which includes two teams that have yet to win a game this season. Even their losses have come against bad teams. Illinois and South Florida have combined for a 5-9 record.

The strength of schedule for Memphis has been a lot stronger than it has for the Bearcats. The Tiger's opponents have a combined average of 32.9 points per game scored this season, yet the Memphis defense has allowed a mere 22.5 points per game. I think this stop unit is going to cause a lot of problems for Cincinnati, a team that is averaging just 17 points per game on the road this year.

After a few losses the oddsmakers have a tendency to undervalue this Tigers team. That has led to a 7-0 ATS record when coming off three straight losses against conference opponents. The Tigers are also 20-8 ATS when coming off a loss by seven points or less to a conference rival. The better defense and home field advantage should prevail straight-up today, but we will take the points as an insurance policy.

4* Total Dominator on Fresno St/San Diego St OVER

The complete lack of defense for both of these teams tells me the total has been set far too low. Fresno State is averaging over 45 points per game this season. They are a very pass-heavy team completing almost 70% of their attempts for 386 yards per game. They face a San Diego State defense that has allowed a 66.4% completion percentage in home games for 372 yards per game. Fresno

4* Heavy Hitter on Florida Atl +

As surprising as the play has been from the Auburn Tigers this season, they are giving up too many points against Florida Atlantic. The Owls defense has been solid, holding opponents to 23.2 points per game on the road. They have not built up their numbers playing a soft schedule either. Florida Atlantic opened the season by playing on the road against a tough Miami Hurricanes team. They have played five of their seven games on the road this season, so the "hostile environment" will be a non-factor for this seasoned team.

The Tigers are playing in a great spot for a letdown performance. They are coming off a big upset win on the road over Texas A&M, and the excitement of that game probably had them playing pretty light at practice this past week. You should always play against a team coming off a win over a conference rival when they were an underdog of six or more points and they are playing in weeks five through nine of the season. This angle is 62-33 against the spread over the last five seasons.

The Owls are 12-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight-up loss, and 11-2 ATS when coming off an ATS win. They have consistently been undervalued when playing in non-conference games, and that has afforded them a 10-2 ATS record in their last 12 non-conference matchups. The Auburn Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when scoring 40 points or more in their previous game, and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

3* Total Annihilator on W. Virginia/K-State UNDER

West Virginia has been horrible on offense this season. They average just 16.3 points per game on the road. The Mountaineers have struggled to complete passes this year without Geno Smith. They average a mere 54.5% completion percentage overall, and when playing on the road they drop to a 47.1% completion rate. I don

4* Vegas Insider on Buffalo +

The oddsmakers have this game playing out as being a close one, but I think Buffalo is every bit as good as their 5-2 record, while Kent State is every bit as bad as their 2-6 record. The Bulls are averaging 29.6 points per game. They are a very run biased team, averaging 45 carries per game out of their 73 total plays on offense. They face a Kent State defense that has allowed opponents to run for 228 yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry.

The Bulls defense is much better than the look statistically. If you take out the 70 points allowed against Baylor, they are a much better defense. Almost every team Baylor has faced has given up 70 points this season, so I don

4* Total Dominator on Tulsa/Tulane UNDER

The total on this game has been set far too high for what should turn out to be a defensive battle. Tulsa is scoring a mere 20.3 points per game on the road this season, and they will face a tough Tulane defense. Tulane has held opponents to just three yards per carry for a total of 105 rushing yards per game on the year. When playing at home their yards per carry average drops to 2.6, and their total rushing yards allowed is just 94 per game. That spells big trouble for a Tulsa offense that has a strong run bias.

Tulane is a little more balanced on offense, but they will struggle to pick up first downs when faced with passing situations. Tulsa has allowed a mere 53.7% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks when they are playing on the road. Overall this season Tulsa has held its opponents to a mere 214 passing yards per game. Both teams have injuries as the quarterback position too. Nick Montana has been downgraded to questionable due to a shoulder injury, and Cody Green is questionable with a knee injury. I would be surprised to see either playing, but if they do they will certainly not be 100% by game time.

These teams have a history of playing in defensive battles. In fact, the last five head-to-head meetings have resulted in a 4-1 record in favor of the under. Tulsa is coming off a bye week, and the under is 4-1 in their last five games when following a bye. It is also 6-1 in their last seven games following an ATS win. Tulane has a 4-1 record in favor of the under in their last five conference games, and they are also 4-1 to the under in their last five games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

3* Total Dominator on W. Michigan/UMass UNDER

The total is set this high based on the fact that neither of these teams is very good on defense. What it does not take into account is the fact that neither team is very good on offense either. Western Michigan has played some very soft defensive opponents. In fact, those opponents have allowed an average of 27.3 points per game this season, yet the Broncos have managed to score just 13.4 points per game.

It is the same story for UMass. The Minutemen average a mere 7.9 points per game against opponents allowing 23.5 points per game. These teams can

5* Total Annihilator on Georgia Tech/Virginia UNDER

The total on this game is set far too high. Georgia tech

3* No Doubt Rout on Ball State -

The oddsmakers have given Akron a little too much credit for home field advantage in this game. Ball State is averaging 41 points per game on the road this season. They have amassed an average of 507 yards of offense in road games, and face an Akron defense that is allowing 37 points per game at home. The Zips have struggled to stop good passing teams, and Ball State averages over 330 passing yards per game.

The Ball State defense has played extremely well this year. They are holding opponents to 23.5 points per game. Their biggest defensive weakness is against the run, but the Zips average just 2.8 yards per carry and a total of 86 rushing yards per game at home this season. The strengths and weaknesses for each team indicate a Ball State blowout in this game.

The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a losing record at home. They are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine conference games. The Zips on the other hand are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games, and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a winning road record. The Cardinals outmatch Akron from several key angles and they should have no problem winning this game by a double-digit margin.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UConn +

These teams are headed in opposite directions this season, and the fact that UConn is 0-6 may have caused the oddsmakers to overreact when setting this line. Four of Central Florida

3* Total No Brainer on Nebraska/Minnesota UNDER

The Golden Gophers rely heavily on their ability to run the ball. In fact, of their 62 total offensive plays, Minnesota runs the ball an astounding 45 carries per game. Their inability to throw the ball indicates this will be a very low scoring performance for the Gophers because they are facing a Nebraska defense that just held Purdue to a measly 32 rushing yards on 1.3 yards per carry in their last game.

I don

5* No Brainer on Houston +

The Houston Cougars are the better team, and even though they are on the road a touchdown is simply giving too much undeserved credit to Rutgers. The Cougars are averaging 40.8 points per game this season. On the road they have still managed to score an impressive 37.3 points per game. I don

3* Oddsmakers Error on Boise State +

The Broncos are not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers in this matchup against BYU. They have overcompensated due to the loss of Joe Southwick, and that will prove to be a costly mistake tonight. Grant Hedrick has 37 pass attempts this season, and he has connected on 30 of those attempts for an 81.1% completion rate. The junior quarterback should be able to step in and replace Southwick without the offense skipping a beat.

The Broncos are averaging 39.9 points per game this season, and with Hedrick being a more accurate quarterback, I would not be surprised to see their offensive numbers improve. They face a Cougars defense that has allowed opponents to gain 230 passing yards per game. BYU is nowhere near as efficient on offense as the Broncos, which has let to over 9 points per game less in scoring on very similar total yardage numbers on offense. The Bronco's defense is also not getting enough respect. They have held opponents to 22.9 points per game, with those opponents averaging 28 points per game prior to facing the Broncos.

BYU is 2-14 ATS in home games against excellent offensive teams that are averaging over 450 yards per game. They are also 5-16 ATS in home games against teams passing for 250 yards or more. The Broncos on the other hand are 13-4 ATS against teams that have outscored opponents by 10 or more points per game, and 25-9 ATS against teams winning 60% to 75% of their games on the season. I think Boise State is every bit as good of a team with Hedrick under center and it will show tonight against BYU.

4* Heavy Hitter on Mississippi State -

The Wildcats biggest weakness this season has been their defense against the run. They are allowing opponents to rush for 213 yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry. They should be in for a long night against a Mississippi State team that is averaging 243 rushing yards per game at home this season. Kentucky's secondary has also been soft. They have given up a 78.9% completion percentage in road games for 273 passing yards per game.

Offensively the Wildcats do not have the talent to keep pace with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State has scored 40 points per game at home this season, gaining an average of 499 total yards of offense. The Wildcats on the other hand have managed a paltry 20.3 points per game and 352 yards of offense. Kentucky has also been dominated on time of possession. When your defense spends as much time on the field as Kentucky, it makes sense that they would tire out quickly and perform so poorly.

Kentucky is 2-11 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons and 2-9 ATS against conference opponents. The Bulldogs come into this game with a 5-2 ATS record against teams with a losing record, and an 11-5 ATS record in their last 16 home games. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the Wildcats own a 0-4 ATS record and nothing indicates that trend will be changing tonight.

5* No Brainer on Marshall -

Rakeem Cato has quickly built a reputation as one of the best quarterbacks in Conference-USA. He has thrown for over 1,500 yards this season with a 12:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and led his team to a 36.2 point per game scoring average. The Thundering Herd are gaining 173 rushing yards per game, and face a Middle Tennessee team that has allowed opponents to gain 195 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry. Cato should have no problem picking apart the Middle Tennessee secondary that has been torched to the tune of a 66.1% completion rate from opposing quarterbacks and 254 passing yards per game.

Middle Tennessee's offense has been horrible this season. They are scoring a mere 22.6 points per game and will face one of the best defenses in the conference tonight. Logan Kilgore and Austin Grammer have combined for a 59% completion rate, with seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The Blue Raiders have committed five turnovers in their last two games, while Marshall has forced four turnovers and committed just two of their own in that same span. I expect the Thundering Herd to dominate this game with outstanding offensive play, and the margin of defeat will only get worse as the turnover prone Blue Raiders dig an even bigger hole trying to force plays and get back into the game.

The Blue Raiders have not benefited much from home field advantage. They are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games, and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. They have struggled against good teams, posting a 3-7 ATS record against teams with a winning record. The Thundering Herd on the other hand are 4-2 ATS this season. This matchup also falls into a system to play on road teams that are scoring 35 points or more per game, when coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed seven points or less in the first half. This system is 65-31 ATS over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Louisiana-Lafayette -

The Ragin' Cajuns have the momentum coming into this matchup having won four consecutive games. They have covered the spread in three of those four games, and face an Arkansas State team that has lost two of their last three games straight up and against the spread. The Red Wolves are in for another long game when they host a Louisiana-Lafayette team that has averaged 38.5 points per game.

The Red Wolves defense has struggled this year, giving up 29.8 points per game. The run defense has been extremely soft, which provides a very favorable matchup advantage to the Ragin' Cajuns. They are allowing 5.1 yards per carry, while Louisiana-Lafayette has averaged 45 runs per game for 223 yards. The Cajuns have also completed 65% of their pass attempts and should wreak havoc on an Arkansas State team that is allowing 292 passing yards per game.

The Ragin' Cajuns are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when coming off a straight-up win. They are a great team to back in a shootout, posting a 12-2 ATS record in road games against teams averaging more than 425 total yards per game. This matchup also falls into a system to play on road teams with a line between -3 to +3 when they are coming off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more against conference rivals, and they are winning 60% to 80% of their games on the season. This system is 49-20 against the spread.

4* Heavy Hitter on Washington State +

As good as the Oregon Ducks are, a line over five touchdowns is a lot of points to cover against this solid Washington State team. The Cougars are averaging just shy of 30 points per game and will easily be one of the best offensive units the Ducks have faced. Oregon

3* Total Annihilator on Utah State/New Mexico UNDER
(Late Release)

Utah State's defense has had no problem shutting down inferior opponents this season. They held Weber State to just six points, and San Jose State to a mere 12 points. On the road they are allowing just 21.4 points per game playing against opponents that have averaged 27.2 points per game.

Don't expect Utah State to put up any big numbers this week with Chuckie Keeton out with an injury. Their backup quarterback situation is ugly, and it is a huge blow to the offense. The Aggies relied heavily on Keaton's 60%+ completion rate, and finding someone who can generate over 280 passing yards per game on the road will be hard to do.

3* Total Dominator on Florida State/Clemson OVER

The total set on this matchup is very favorable for a strong play on the over. The Seminoles have averaged over 50 points per game overall this season. The offense has been dominant even when Florida State is playing on the road. In road games they average 44.5 points per game. Clemson has also done their fair share of scoring, putting up 42.5 points per game at home.

This is a big matchup for both of these teams and I expect it to play-out very similar to Clemson

3* Total Annihilator on Arkansas/Alabama UNDER

This matchup features two very good defensive units. Alabama comes into this game allowing a mere three points per game at home this season. That includes a 25-0 shutout against a very good Ole Miss team. Arkansas has faced three very strong passing teams the last four weeks, and that has led to the oddsmakers undervaluing the defense. They faced Texas A&M, Rutgers and South Carolina.

This week Arkansas takes on an Alabama team that has a strong run bias. The Razorback

3* Total Dominator on UCLA/Stanford UNDER
(Late Release)

This matchup features two very good defensive teams. They have both managed to hold their opponents to substantially less points than their scoring averages. UCLA has given up 18.2 points per game this season against opponents that have averaged over 30 points per game. Its a very similar story for Stanford who has allowed 22.2 points against opponents scoring 32.8 points per game.

Both of these teams also have a strong run bias. UCLA has run the ball 46 times per game to just 36 pass attempts. They face a Stanford defense that has allowed 2.6 yards per carry at home this season. For Stanford their run bias is a little stronger. Of their 62 total offensive plays, the Cardinal have carried the ball an average of 39 times. The Bruins run defense has held opponents to an even three yards per carry in road games this year.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Buffalo -
(Late Release)

The Buffalo Bulls opened the season against Ohio State and Baylor, two of the best teams in the country. Those two losses make this team look a lot worse than they are. Since then however, they have won four consecutive games, covering the spread in three of those four matchups. This week they will take on a UMass team that is 1-5 on the season.

UMass has not scored double-digits against a decent opponent all season. In face, they have scored a touchdown or less in four of their six games, and have never breached the 17 point benchmark. The Bulls on the other hand have consistently scored 30+ points per came, and they have the benefit of playing on their home field.

4* Total No Brainer on Wyoming/Colorado State OVER

Wyoming has played a relatively soft schedule with the exception of their road opener against Nebraska, so I think their defensive statistics are a bit misleading. The face a Rams team that has scored 30 points per game this season, which indicates this game should end up being a shootout. The Wyoming is also doing a lot of scoring this season, averaging 38.3 points per game at home.

The Rams defense has been horrible, so expect to see the Cowboys scoring at-will in front of their home crowd. Colorado State has allowed 34 points per game on the road this season, and their secondary is extremely soft. That should allow the Cowboys to complete a high percentage of big yardage plays. Wyoming is averaging 310 yards per game through the air, while Colorado State has allowed an average of 307 passing yards per game.

Wyoming is obviously the better team offensively, so you can count on them to cover their half of the points needed to send this game over the total. We know the Rams defense is bad, and I think the Cowboys defense is completely overvalued which is why this total has been set lower than it should be. The over is 5-1 in Colorado State

5* No Brainer on Wyoming -

The Wyoming Cowboys should have no problem putting a big number on the scoreboard against this soft Colorado State defense. The Cowboys are scoring 38.3 points per game at home this season, while Colorado State has allowed an average of 34 points per game on the road. The Rams secondary has been soft, giving up a 67% completion percentage and 295 passing yards in road games.

The Cowboys offensive attack is extremely balanced. They average a total of 80 offensive plays per game, passing 42 times and running the ball 38 times. On the ground they are gaining 5.4 yards per carry for 209 rushing yards per game. I would not be surprised to see them lean a little heavier towards the pass this week since Colorado State has given up a lot of yardage through the air. The Cowboys are completing 63.9% of their pass attempts for 310 yards.

The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS when coming off a home win, while Colorado State is 1-9 ATS in road games when coming off a game in which they allowed 7.25 yards per play or more. The Rams are also 3-12 ATS in road games against excellent passing teams that are completing over 62% of their pass attempts. Wyoming has posted a 10-2 ATS record in home games against bad defensive teams that are allowing over 31 points per game. All the stats and trends point to a Cowboys blowout this week.

4* Vegas Insider on Oklahoma State -

TCU has been a serial underperformer this season. They are 2-4 ATS and 3-3 overall. The once stout defense has not been very sharp this season, especially when playing on the road. The Horned Frogs are allowing 25.7 points per game away from home, while Oklahoma State has averaged 46 points per game in front of their home crowd. The mismatch between the Cowboy

3* No Doubt Rout on Georgia -

The Georgia bulldogs were plagued by injuries last week against Missouri, but they should have no problem bouncing back with a strong performance against Vanderbilt this week. The Bulldogs would be favored by a lot more if Todd Gurley were not listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. However, that will be a non-factor since the key to Georgia

3* Main Event on Central Florida +

Central Florida has played extremely well this season. They come into this matchup against Louisville with a 4-1 record, with their only loss this season coming by just three points to South Carolina. The Knights have proved to be a very difficult team to keep out of the endzone. They are averaging 31.8 points per game. Their scoring average has actually improved slightly to 32 points per game when the Knights are on the road.

The defense is a big reason the Knights come into this game with a 4-1 ATS record. Louisville runs a very balanced offensive attack which has allowed them to exploit vulnerabilities in opposing defenses this season. That simply won't be the case with Central Florida. Against the run the Knights have limited opponents to 3.5 yards per carry and 114 rushing yards per game when playing on the road. The secondary has allowed a completion percentage higher than most defensive coordinators would like to see, but they are not giving up much yardage at 213 passing yards allowed per game.

Central Florida is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games against a team that has a winning record at home. George O'Leary is 14-4 ATS after having won four of the last five games as the coach of Central Florida. Louisville has struggled playing in the spotlight of the weekday games. They are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Friday games, and they are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games when coming off a performance in which they allowed 100 or less rushing yards. Two touchdowns plus the half point advantage makes Central Florida the play tonight.

3* Total Annihilator on Miami/North Carolina OVER

This 63 point total is set too low for two teams that have combined to average over 80 points per game under the current conditions. Miami is scoring 49 points per game on the road this season, while North Carolina has put up 35.5 points per game at home. I expect to see both teams fall in line with their typical scoring figures in this matchup. The Tar Heels are a strong passing team, and have put up some pretty solid offensive numbers against decent teams. They are averaging just shy of 400 total yards of offense per game.

The Tar Heels defense is soft. They have allowed 37.5 points per game at home. They have not looked like a team that is well conditioned. The Hurricanes are averaging 214 rushing yards per game, and gaining 5.9 yards per carry. The have a strong run bias, and play a very physical game which should have the Tar Heels defense worn down by halftime. Miami also has a lot of quick scoring ability. They have been owned on time of possession, but still manage to score over 45 points per game which indicates the fact that they do not take a lot of time to score those points.

The over is 6-1 in Miami's last seven road games, and 7-2 in their last nine games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The Tar Heels are also trending towards the over. In their last seven home games, the over has a 6-1 record. Miami should secure a large lead very early in this game, and that should soften up the Hurricane's defense in the second half, allowing North Carolina to get a decent number of points on the board. These teams have a history of playing in a shootout. In the last four head-to-head meetings played in North Carolina the over has a 4-0 record.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Western Kentucky -

Louisiana-Lafayette has been a major disappointment this season. They are 3-2 on the year and were crushed by the only two decent opponents they have faced. This week they will take on a tough Western Kentucky team that is 4-2 straight-up and against the spread. The Hilltoppers have won three consecutive games, crushing Morgan State and Navy at home, and picking up a three touchdown victory on the road over Louisiana-Monroe.

The Hilltoppers are averaging 38.5 points per game at home this season. Their ground attack has picked up 298 rushing yards per game on 6.9 yards per carry in front of the home crowd. While WKU is definitely a run biased team, they are also a team that can beat you through the air. They have completed 65.6% of their pass attempts this season. The defense is also stacked with talent. The Hilltoppers have allowed just 12 points per game at home and 23.8 points per game overall this season. They are up against a Louisiana-Lafayette team that has scored just 25.3 points per game on the road this season, while the defense has allowed 37.3 points in those games.

The Hilltoppers have been a great team to back in recent years. They are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall. They are also 22-8 in their last 30 conference games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record. The Hilltoppers are clearly the better team in this matchup, and playing at home gives them enough of an advantage to easily cover a line that is completely undervaluing their ability.

4* Total Annihilator on Boise State/Utah State UNDER

This total has been set far too high given the quality of defense from both of these teams. Utah State has allowed a mere 19.3 points per game. The Broncos are a very run heavy team which plays into the Aggies greatest strength of defense. They have held opponents to a mere 3.2 yards per carry this season.

The Broncos defense is much better than they story their statistics tell. They have allowed an average of 24 points per game, but that average has been built up due in large part to just two poor performances against very good teams. In their season opener they gave up 38 points to Washington, and they have a history of playing in shootouts against Fresno State. With those games removed from the equation, they have allowed just 13.6 points per game.

The under is 8-1 in Utah State's last nine home games, and 15-6 in their last 21 games overall. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when the total is between 49.5 to 56 points, and the home team is coming off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite. This system is 26-7 over the last five seasons.

5* Non-Conference Game of the Year on Mississippi State -

The Bulldogs play extremely well in front of their home crowd. In fact, they are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against a team with a winning record. They have several key matchup advantages in this game against Bowling Green. On offense Mississippi State has scored 32.4 points per game overall, and 46.3 points per game when playing at home. They have put up big numbers against a much stronger schedule than what the Falcons have faced this season.

Bowling Green's only game against a quality opponent was their matchup with Indiana. The Falcons ended up getting crushed in a 32 point blowout. There defense has been soft against the run, allowing 4.8 yards per carry. When playing on the road it gets even worse as opponents average 5.3 yards per carry and 202 rushing yards per game. Mississippi State is a great running team that averages 4.9 yards per carry and 208 rushing yards per game. They should have no problem dominating this matchup similar to the way Indiana was able to control their game against the Falcons.

Head coach Dan Mullen has a 12-4 ATS record has a home favorite as the coach of Mississippi State. I expect him to have his defense well prepared after having a poor showing against LSU last week. The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Typically the Mississippi State secondary has played well this season, holding opponents to to just 205 passing yards per game. The Falcon's offensive numbers are drastically inflated thanks to a soft schedule, and the value in this game is on Mississippi State.