3* NCAAF Late Night Over/Under Total Crusher on Nevada/Colorado St OVER

I believe the books have set the total too low in Saturday's showdown between Nevada and Colorado State. Both of these offenses come in with a lot of confidence. The Wolf Pack put up 46 points on 462 yards of total offense against Boise State and that was with Nevada committing 4 turnovers. Colorado State hung 42 points and 532 yards of total offense against Tulsa and that was with the Rams scoring just 14 points in the 2nd half.

There's plenty of reason to believe that both offenses will continue to light up the scoreboard, as both of these teams have not been great defensively. The Rams are giving 4.6 yards/carry and are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their attempts for a 7.7 average per completion. Nevada is giving up 5.0 yards/carry and are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.8% of their attempts for a 7.5 average completion.

The fact that both these teams are giving up big chunks of yards, should have both offenses sustaining drives and most importantly finishing them off with touchdowns. Last year the two combined for just 55 points, but that was with a sluggish first half that saw just 13 combined points scored. I expect a lot more offense early, which should have this one flying over the total.

The OVER is 16-6 in Colorado State's last 22 games after going under the total in each of their previous 2 contests and 15-5 in their last 20 games when listed as a road favorite. It's also a perfect 6-0 in the Rams last 6 road games against teams who are allowing 425 or more yards of total offense. These trends combine to form a 77% (37-11) system. Take the OVER!

4* USC/Arizona Pac-12 ATS Heavy Hitter on USC -

The fact that oddsmakers listed USC as the favorite over a Top 10 team on the road after they were upset at home by Arizona State and the Wildcats fresh off a shocking win at Oregon, is a good indication that the experts believe the Trojans are the better team. I couldn't agree more. USC is the far superior team in terms of talent and should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Personally, I was shocked to see Arizona go from being unranked to No. 10 in the country. The Wildcats needed a Hail Mary to beat Cal at home the previous week 49-45 in a game they trailed by 15-points with just over 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Arizona also struggled to beat the likes of Nevada (35-28) and UTSA (26-23). One of the big things that gets overlooked in the Wildcats victory over Oregon, is the Ducks were dealing with some major injuries up front on the offensive line.

Even though USC’s defense allowed 510 passing yards to Arizona State last week, I still think the Trojans have a solid defense and will bounce back with a much better effort against the Wildcats. USC has already shown they can bounce back from an ugly loss, as they followed up a 31-37 defeat at Boston College with a 35-10 win over Oregon State. It’s also worth noting that after Arizona upset Oregon last year, they came back the next week and lost by 38-points at Arizona State. It's really hard for teams like the Wildcats to match their intensity after a program-changing win like they had against the Ducks.

USC is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games off a loss by 6 points or less and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Arizona on the other hand is just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins. These trends combine to form a 85% (33-6) system in favor of the Trojans. Take USC!

5* Mountain West Conference Total of the Month on Air Force/Utah State UNDER

I'm not expecting both of these to come out sluggish after knocking off a big rival last week. Air Force defeated Navy 30-21, while Utah State stunned previously unbeaten BYU 35-20. I also think the matchup favors a low scoring game.

Air Force is only allowing 21.2 ppg on the season and are carrying over a lot of momentum on the defensive side of the ball after holding Boise State to just 14 points and Navy to 21. Both of those teams provide more of an offensive punch than Utah State, which has lost star quarterback Chuckie Keeton to another season ending knee injury. Without Keeton the Aggies offense has become more dependable on the run. They come in averaging 37 rush attempts a game. Air Force has had their struggles against the pass, but are respectable 27th against the run (116.0 ypg).

It's no secret that the Falcons are a run-first team, as that's been the case for quite some time. Air Force comes in ranked 11th in the country in rushing (298.0 ypg) compared to 115th in passing (136.6 ypg). That plays right into the strength of the Utah State defense, which is 8th in the country against the run (93.4 ypg) and giving up just 2.6 yards/carry.

With both offenses coming in looking to establish the run and both defenses thriving at stopping the ground game, both teams are going to have to work for every first down. This should keep the clock running and limit the possessions, which is exactly what we are looking for.

The UNDER is 4-0 in the Falcons last 4 games against a team with a winning record and 4-1 in the Aggies last 5 against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is also 35-18 in Air Force's last 53 games played in October, 14-5 in Utah State's last 19 after a game where they covered the spread and 26-12 in the Aggies last 38 home games after the first month of the season. These trends combine to form a 70% (83-36) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Ole Miss/Texas A&M No Doubt ATS Rout on Texas A&M -

One of the most difficult things to do in college football is bounce back from a big win and it's even harder when it's a program-changing victory. Last week’s upset over Alabama, which snapped a 10-game losing streak to the Crimson Tide, was the biggest win in school history for the Rebels. As much as head coach Hugh Freeze reminds his players of not dwelling on that victory, I just don’t see Ole Miss being able to bring that same intensity on the road against a hungry Texas A&M team that is looking to bounce back from an ugly showing against Mississippi State.

I was impressed with the way Ole Miss shutdown Alabama’s offense, but I think the Rebels could struggle to slow down the Aggies’ up-tempo attack. Keep in mind that the Rebels played well defensively last year against the Crimson Tide in a 25-0 defeat in Tuscaloosa, but would later get torched for 587 yards by Texas A&M. The Aggies are without question the most challenging offense that Ole Miss will have faced this season and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rebels end up having their worst showing defensively of the season. I also thought Alabama played a very conservative game against Ole Miss, which cost them the game.

I know Texas A&M’s defense hasn’t looked great the past two weeks against both Arkansas and Mississippi State, but both the Razorbacks and Bulldogs were able to keep the Aggies off balance with their ability to run the football. Ole Miss doesn’t pose near the threat as those two teams on the ground. The Rebels come in ranked 80th in the country in rushing, averaging just 143.0 ypg.

The Aggies have been a good team to jump on in a big bounce back spot like this. Texas A&M is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 following a SU loss, 16-6 in their last 22 games after allowing 24 or more points in the first half and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games after allowing 525 or more yards of total offense. These two trends combine to form a 78% (32-9) system in favor of the Aggies. Take Texas A&M!

3* TCU/Baylor NCAAF Total No Brainer on OVER

Last year these two teams combined for 79 points and 780 yards of total offense and that was with an off day from Baylor starting quarterback Bryce Petty and a TCU offense that saw Trevone Boykin not playing a significant role. It was the third straight meeting where these two teams combined for at least 70 points. I think we are going to see just as much offense, if not more, in Saturday's showdown between the only two undefeated teams in the Big 12.

It just so happens that Petty comes into this game off a poor showing against Texas, where he completed just 7 of 22 attempts for 111 yards. Even with their star quarterback off his game, Baylor was able to score 28 points, which is a credit to just how potent this offense can be. I look for Petty to bounce back in a big way at home against a TCU defense that just allowed 309 passing yards to Oklahoma's Trevor Knight, who is no where near as gifted as Petty and doesn't have the same caliber of weapons at his disposal.

There's been a lot made of Baylor's defense, which comes in ranked 5th in the country in scoring (12.4 ppg) and 4th in yards allowed (267.2 ypg). As impressive as those numbers are, it's a direct result of an unbelievable easy schedule to start the year. TCU comes in averaging 42.7 ppg on 516 yards of total offense and based on what the Horned Frogs were able to do against this Baylor defense last year without Boykin, I think the Bears are going to have a difficult time slowing this offense down.

Boykin comes into this contest completing 61.5% of his attempts with 1,176 yards and 10 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. He's also TCU's leading rusher with 260 yards and has scored 3 rushing touchdowns. In last week's game against a good Oklahoma defense, Boykin threw for 318 yards and 2 touchdowns and rushed for another 77 yards on 22 attempts.

There's plenty of trends backing this one to finish over the total. The OVER is 16-6 in Baylor's last 22 games against a top level team that's won more than 75% of their games, 13-4 in their last 17 against good run defenses that are allowing 120 or less yards/game, 20-8 in their last 28 against teams who average 250 or more passing yards/game 8-1 in their last 9 after allowing 14 points or less and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 with a total set between 63.5 to 70 points. These trends combine to form a 77% (63-19) system. Take the OVER!

3* UCLA/Oregon NCAAF Total Dominator on OVER

Both UCLA and Oregon underperformed last week in upset losses at home. The Ducks scored just 24 points in a 24-31 loss to Arizona, while the Bruins put up only 28 points in a 28-30 defeat to Utah. Even with those poor performances, Oregon still ranks 9th in scoring at 43.6 ppg and UCLA is 34th at 36.0 ppg. I believe their poor showings has created some nice value on the OVER.

Part of the problem for both of these teams has been the play of their offensive line. While both are still hurting up front, neither of these defenses figure to take advantage. This is not the same caliber of Oregon defense that we have seen in previous years. The Ducks are ranked 101st in the country in total defense, giving up 453.0 ypg. UCLA isn't a whole lot better. The Bruins are 86th in total defense, allowing 429.0 ypg.

Both UCLA and Oregon are built around the passing game with big time talent at the quarterback position. Oregon is 16th in the country in passing at 324.4 ypg and UCLA is 27th at 297.6 ypg. The big key here is that both of these teams have a horrible time stopping the pass. The Ducks are 115th (309.6 ypg) and the Bruins are 100th (271.0 ypg).

Prior to last year's matchup which saw just 56 total points scored (only 14 by UCLA), the previous two matchups in this series saw a combined score of at least 73 points.

OVER is 19-7-1 in Oregon's last 27 games following a SU loss and 36-15 in their last 51 after allowing more than 450 yards of total offense. It's also 5-1 in Bruins last 6 home games and 32-16 in their last 48 against teams who are averaging 8 or more yards/completion. These trends combine to form a 70% (87-38) system. Take the OVER!

5* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Oregon -

Last week’s loss definitely hurt Oregon's chances of making the playoffs, but there's still plenty of reason to believe that if the Ducks are able to run the table and win the PAC-12 Championship Game, they would a realistic shot at getting into the mix.

As ugly as Oregon’s loss at home was to Arizona, I still think the Ducks are the better of the two teams and I think we are getting some great value with Oregon laying less than a field goal. The last time the Ducks were favored by less than a touchdown in a conference game was back in 2012 when they were a 3-point dog at Stanford and they won that game 53-30.

One of the big problems for Oregon over their past couple of games has been their offensive line, which was missing their top 3 tackles. While Both Tyler Johnstone and Andre Yruetagoyena are not expected to be available, the Ducks could get back Jake Fischer, which would be a huge plus, but their problems up front won't be as big of an issue against UCLA. The Bruins have recorded just 7 sacks all season, which is the worst mark of any Pac-12 team. With better blocking up front,  I look Oregon’s offense to return to form against a UCLA defense that comes in ranked 60th against the run (158.0 ypg) and 102nd versus the pass (271.0 ypg).

It’s also worth noting that UCLA is having just as much trouble with the play of their offensive line. Brett Hundley was sacked 10 times last week by Utah and the front five have not performed well all season. The Ducks haven’t been great defensively this year, but I like their chances of slowing down the Bruins on Saturday.

One of the things that stands out to me is that UCLA is fortunate to be 4-1. The Bruins needed 3 non-offensive touchdowns to escape with a 28-20 road win over Virginia, barely held on to beat Memphis as at home 42-35, had their hands full in a 20-17 win over a Texas program undergoing major transitions and benefited from getting Arizona State in their first game after losing starting quarterback Taylor Kelly. Oregon on the other hand knocked off a very good Michigan State team 46-27 at home.

Oregon has won 5 of their last 6 road games against Top 25 teams, with the only exception being last year's 20-26 defeat at Stanford. The Ducks have also won 5 straight in their series against UCLA, with an average margin of victory of 22.8 points.

Oregon is 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games when listed anywhere from +3 to -3. It's also worth noting that the Ducks haven't suffered consecutive Pac-12 losses in the same season since 2007 and are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 off a home loss. This last trends has this play falling under a massive 77% system. Take Oregon!

3* Duke/Georgia Tech Total Annihilator on OVER

I'm expecting more than enough offense here to push this game over the total. Duke comes in averaging 36.8 ppg on 446 yards of total offense and Georgia Tech is averaging 34.6 ppg on 430 yards of total offense. Duke had one of their worst offensive games of the season in last year's meeting and the two teams still combined for 52 points.

One of the reasons that I think the books have set this total lower than what it should be is because the Blue Devils come in ranked 8th in the country allowing just 13.6 ppg. That may seem impressive, but it's not. Duke has played one of the easiest schedules in the country to this point. They were extremely fortunate to hold Miami to just 22 points, as the Hurricanes had 426 yards of total offense. What killed Miami is they were just 2 of 13 on 3rd down.

I'm also expecting the Blue Devils' offense to put up some big numbers. Georgia Tech's defense is also not as good as advertised due to a soft schedule. The Yellow Jackets only returned 4 starters on defense and we have already seen them give up 528 yards to Georgia Southern at home and 424 yards to Virginia Tech. Georgia Tech is giving up 5.5 yards/rush and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.4% of their attempts for 8.0 yards/completion. Duke has had two full weeks to put together a gameplan for Georgia Tech's defense, which should have their offense clicking on all cylinders.

The OVER is 6-0 in Duke's last 6 games when they come in having won 4 of their last 5 games and 6-0 Georgia Tech's last 6 home games against teams who are averaging 4.75 or more yards/rush.

We also see a strong system backing this one to finish above the total. The OVER is 45-17 over the last 10 seasons in games with a total of 56.5 to 63 points where you have the home team that has started out 4-0 or better. That's a 73% system. Take the OVER!

4* Big Ten NCAAF ATS Vegas Insider on Wisconsin -

This is a great spot to jump on the Badgers after that surprising loss at Northwestern last week. While Wisconsin has one of the best rushing attacks in the country, they have one of the worst passing games. The Badgers come in ranked 111th in the country with just 149.8 ypg through the air. The lack of a passing threat is a big reason why they failed to cover against South Florida and lost outright against the Wildcats.

What makes Wisconsin a strong play against Illinois is they aren't going to need to throw the ball to sustain drives and ultimately get in the endzone. The Fighting Illini couldn't stop the Badgers 2nd unit from running at will. Illinois ranks 112th in the country against the run, giving up a ridiculous 249.5 ypg. In their two Big Ten games they have allowed 458 rushing yards to Nebraska and 349 rushing yards to Purdue. I can understand giving up big yardage to the Cornhuskers, but 349 to the Boilermakers is a clear indication that this defense is awful.

Defensively Wisconsin has been impressive. The Badgers are only giving up 15.6 ppg and rank 8th overall in total defense, allowing just 285.6 ypg. The only team to score more than 20 points on Wisconsin was LSU in the opener. Illinois managed just 14 points on the road against a Nebraska defense that isn't as strong as the Badgers, giving plenty of reason to believe that Wisconsin can limit the Fighting Illini and score enough here to cover this massive spread.

The Badgers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games against teams who are completing 62% or better of their pass attempts, while the Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games against teams who are averaging 4.75 or more yards/rush.

Couple of strong systems supporting a play on Wisconsin. First, road underdogs who are being outrushed by 60+ yards/game after allowing 6.5 or more yards/rush in each of their last two games are 4-24 ATS since 1992. That's a 86% system in favor of the Badgers. We also see that teams off a close loss by 7 or less points to a conference opponent against a team that lost by 10 or more points as a home favorite are 48-19 ATS since 1992. That's a 72% system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin!

3* San Diego State/New Mexico MWC Main Event on New Mexico +

The Lobos come into this contest off an impressive 21-9 road win over UTSA as a 16.5-point underdog. I look for New Mexico to carry over the momentum into tonight's matchup against the Aztecs. I’m not quite sure why San Diego State is favored here. The Aztecs are expected to be without starting quarterback Quinn Kaehler, plus they are still without 2013’s leading receiver Ezell Ruggin as he recovers from a broken collarbone. It’s also worth noting that 2014’s leading receiver Eric Judge is questionable.

San Diego State’s offense looked lost against a pretty bad Fresno State defense last week. The Aztecs managed just 13 points and 270 yards of total offense. Backup quarterback Nick Bawden was just 9 of 24 for 84 yards with 2 interceptions. That’s a good sign that the Lobos will be able to contain San Diego State, which in turn gives them a great chance to cover the spread.

The key here is whether or not New Mexico’s offense and their 5th ranked rushing attack (323.4 ypg) can have success against a stingy San Diego State run defense that ranks 37th (126.6 ypg). I believe they can. The Aztecs’ strong numbers against the run have been aided by a weak schedule and a couple of games against teams who are looking to pass more. Last year San Diego State only allowed 131 rushing yards/game and yet they allowed 253 yards on 41 attempts (6.2 yards/carry) to the Lobos. You also have to think that the Aztecs’ defense is going to wear down with the offense not being able to stay on the field.

The Lobos are 39-22 ATS in their last 51 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.

There’s a solid system in play favoring New Mexico. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are allowing 16+ ppg in the first half after two straight games that finished under the total are 71-37 ATS since 1992. That's a 66% system in favor of the Lobos. Take New Mexico!

4* BYU/UCF NCAAF Total No Brainer on UNDER

This game has a defensive battle written all over it. BYU lost star quarterback and Heisman contender Taysom Hill for the season in last week's loss to Utah State. Hill was the one player the Cougars offense couldn't afford to lose. Hill had thrown for 975 yards and 7 touchdowns and was also the leading rusher with 460 yards and 8 touchdowns. His dual threat ability made BYU's offense extremely hard to defend.

UCF had a decent shot at slowing down the Cougars' offense even with Hill in the lineup. The Knights come in ranked 30th in total defense (334.3 ypg) and 14th against the run (106.0 ypg). What I really like is that UCF is giving up just 3.1 yards/carry. BYU backup Christian Stewart was just 10 of 29 for for 172 yards with 0 touchdowns and 3 interceptions after replacing Hill against Utah State. Hill had gone 8 of 11 for 99 yards and 1 touchdown, so you can see the drop off in talent.

The pressure now falls on the BYU defense to keep them in games and this is an opponent that I believe they can dominate. UCF comes into this one with the 119th ranked offense in the country. They are having an equally difficult time running (102.5 ypg, 105th) as they are passing (178.5 ypg, 103rd). The Cougars have given up some big yardage in the passing game, but are 10th in the country against the run, allowing just 98.2 ypg. The Knights' run 36 times to just 22 pass attempts, so their focus is clearly on establishing the ground game.

With both defenses matching up well with the opposition, we should see a lot of drives that end in punts and field goal attempts, which should have this game flying under the total.

There's a strong system in play here. The UNDER is 50-18 over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a good rushing team that's averaging 190 to 230 ypg (BYU) against a team with a good run defense that's allowing 100 to 140 ypg in non-conference matchups. That's a 74% system. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAAF Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on Utah +

Not surprised at all to see the Bruins come in overvalued after their big win over the Sun Devils and Utah undervalued after a huge collapse at home to Washington State. The Utes squandered a 21-0 first quarter lead in a rain soaked contest. I still think this is a talented Utah team and one that matches up well with UCLA.

The Bruins are getting all kinds of respect for going on the road and beating a ranked opponent, but Arizona State wasn’t exactly worthy of being the No. 15 team in the country. The Sun Devils had played a cupcake schedule on their way to a 4-0 start and were playing their first game since star quarterback Taylor Kelly was lost to a season ending injury.

Arizona State also had just 2 returning starters back on defense, so it wasn’t all that surprising to see UCLA get the offensive going. There’s still major concerns with the Bruins offensive line and unlike the Sun Devils, Utah will be able to exploit their weakness. The Utes are only giving up 3.0 yards/carry, so they clearly have some talent up front.

I know Utah’s offense completely fell apart against Washington State after jumping out to that early lead, but I look for the Utes to bounce back with better conditions. UCLA’s defense has really struggled against the pass. They allowed Arizona State’s backup Mike Bercovici to throw for 488 yards and 2 scores and come in ranked 113th in the country versus the pass (313.8 ypg). Utah has an experienced signal caller in junior Travis Wilson and I look for the Utes to generate enough big plays to keep this one competitive.

Another aspect that I like here is that we will have a highly motivated Utah team coming off a loss against a potentially over-confident UCLA squad that will likely be looking ahead to next week’s huge home game against Oregon.

UCLA is just 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games against a team with a turnover margin of +1/game or better and Utah is 55-32 ATS in their last 87 when listed as an underdog.

There’s also a solid system here favoring the Utes. Home favorites in a contest involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game) are just 34-74 ATS in conference games over the last 10 seasons. That's a 68% system in favor of the Utes. Take Utah!

3* Nebraska/Michigan State Total No Brainer on UNDER

Last year these two teams combined for 69 points in a 41-28 Michigan State victory at Nebraska. That might have some looking to take the OVER at 58 this time around, but I think this one is going to be a lot more competitive and more of an offensive struggle for both teams.

Michigan State once again has a dominant defense and they matchup perfectly for what the Cornhuskers like to do offensively. Nebraska is 3rd in the country in rushing at 354.8 ypg, but the key is they run in 51 times compared to just 25 pass attempts. Michigan State is 4th against the run, allowing just 78.3 ypg and have went up against Oregon's potent ground game. They held the Ducks to just 173 yards on 40 attempts and would have put up better numbers had it not been 100 degrees, which really wore the Spartans defense down in the 2nd half.

The Spartans have put up some big numbers offensively, but they have come against awful competition. This is one of the better Nebraska defenses that we have seen and I expect them to keep Michigan State in check and force them into some long drives.

UNDER is 9-2 in Michigan State's last 11 games after outgaining their previous two opponents by 125 or more total yards and 13-5 in Nebraska's last 18 after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers. These trends combine to form a 75% (22-7) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Pitt +

I think we are getting some great value on Pittsburgh as a near touchdown underdog against the Cavaliers. This line has been inflated due to Virginia's perfect 5-0 start against the spread and I wouldn't be shocked if the Cavaliers lost outright.

I know the Panthers are coming off an ugly home loss to Akron, but that was a difficult spot for Pittsburgh. They had just blown a double-digit 2nd half lead the previous week and were likely caught looking past the Zips to this matchup. This is still a very talented Panthers team.

Both teams come in with strong defenses. Pittsburgh is 8th in the country in total defense (263.8 ypg) and Virginia is 34th (334.8 ypg). Each has excelled at stopping the run, but I think the Cavaliers are going to have a difficult time slowing down Pittsburgh running back James Conner, who comes in 2nd in the country with 791 rushing yards. Conner rushed for 155 yards on 29 attempts (5.3 yards/carry) against a good Iowa run defense and 214 versus a Boston College defense that currently ranks 26th against the run.

Aside from Conner we are catching Pitt in a great spot off that ugly loss at home. The Panthers are going to come out extremely motivated and I just don't think there's enough difference between these two teams to warrant either side being favored by more than a field goal.

Pittsburgh is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after a double-digit loss at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Virginia is 2-7 ATS after a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games versus at team with a winning road record.

There's a strong system in play favoring Pittsburgh to bounce back and cover. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games off a loss as a double-digit home favorite are 39-11 ATS since 1992. That's a 78% system in favor of the Panthers. Take Pittsburgh!

5* ACC Over/Under Total of the Month on UNDER

Oddsmakers have set a low total here for a reason and I'm expecting this one to be a defensive battle the whole way. Neither one of these teams possess explosive offenses and both are sound defensively. Pittsburgh comes in 8th in the country in total defense, giving up just 263.8 ypg, while Virginia is 32nd in total defense allowing just 334.8 ypg. The thing you have to keep in mind with the Cavaliers' numbers are they have faced 3 big time opponents in UCLA, Louisville and BYU.

One of the key matchups in this game is the Cavaliers run defense against James Connor and Pittsburgh's high-powered rushing attack. Virginia is 9th in the country against the run, giving up just 86.6 ypg. They are also allowing just 2.6 yards/carry. The Panthers come in averaging 48 rush attempts to just 23 pass attempts, so they are clearly focused on running the football. Even if Pittsburgh has minor success on the ground, which I think they will, that's going to result in long drives that eat up the clock. Exactly what we are looking for when trying to cash on the UNDER.

Virginia's offense isn't anything special and I look for them to have a difficult time of their own staying on the field. Pittsburgh is going to come out extremely motivated here after dropping two straight after their 3-0 start. Their lack of energy and focus was a big reason why they got upset at home last week by Akron. Head coach Paul Chryst isn't going to let that poor effort fly in back-to-back games.

Another thing you have to like about this finishing below the total is last year these two teams combined for just 17 points and a big reason for that was neither side could get anything going on the ground. Virginia held Connor and the Pitt offense to just 8 yards on 35 attempts. The Panthers returned the favor by holding Kevin Parks and the Cavaliers ground game to just 65 yards on 33 attempts.

UNDER is 11-2 in Virginia's last 13 home games against excellent ball control teams who average 32 or more minutes of possession, 40-16 in the Cavaliers last 56 games against teams who are allowing 310 or less total yards and 33-18 in Pitts last 51 games against teams who are allowing 120 or less rushing yards/game.

There's also a key system backing this one. The UNDER is 51-21 over the last 10 years in October games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points where you have a team off a home blowout win by 28 or more points (Virginia). That's a 71% system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF ATS Vegas Insider on Wisconsin -

I know the history of this series strongly suggests a play on the Wildcats, but I’m not buying Northwestern being able to keep this game close. Beating an overrated Penn State team certainly doesn’t change my opinion. I actually feel like we are getting some decent value here based off how these two teams performed last week.

While Northwestern went on to beat Penn State by 23-points, that led just 14-6 going into the 4th quarter. They got a 49-yard interception return for a touchdown to make it 20-6 (missed PAT) and after a fumble by the Nittany Lions on their next possession they jumped ahead 23-6 and it was all over from their. The Wildcats only managed 361 yards of total offense and are now ranked 103rd in the country in total offense at just 348.1 ypg. Hard to imagine they will be able to generate any offensive against a Wisconsin defense that is ranked 7th in the country, giving up just 260.8 ypg.

In Northwestern’s previous three games prior to beating Penn State they were outgained by each of their opponents and that includes their contest against FCS foe Western Illinois (-93). The same Western Illinois team that Wisconsin defeated 37-3 with a 294 edge in total yards. The Wildcats did manage to beat Western Illinois, but they lost each of their previous two home games against Cal and Northern Illinois.

Defensively Northwestern was able to take advantage of Penn State’s offensive line, as Christian Hackenberg was constantly under pressure. That’s not going to be the case against the powerful O-line of Wisconsin. The Badgers put up 286 rushing yards against the Wildcats last year and I look for them to have no problem getting the ground game going on the road. While Northwestern comes in ranked a respectable 31st against the run (117.3 ypg), they allowed 221 yards to a far less talented rushing attack of Northern Illinois.

Northwestern is just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games off a win by 21 or more points and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record.

There's a strong system here on the Badgers. Road teams who have allowed 17 points or less in two straight games are 180-104 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 63% system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin!

4* Stanford/Notre Dame Rivalry Game ATS No Brainer on Notre Dame +

Stanford had trouble putting away Washington on the road last week in a hostile environment and I look for them to come up short against a much stronger Notre Dame this week. Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan has been inconsistent.

A big reason for Hogan not maturing like many expected is that is he's got a young inexperienced offensive line protecting him and the Cardinal are not running like they have in previous years. Stanford comes in just 69th in the country in rushing at 165.5 ypg. Notre Dame has the 24th ranked run defense, which puts all the pressure on Hogan and will have the Cardinal struggling to score.

While Stanford has the nation's No. 1 ranked defense, giving up just 198.0 ypg, I like Notre Dame's chances of generating some offense behind star junior quarterback Everett Golson, who has improved a ton from his freshman campaign when he guided the Fighting Irish to the BCS Championship Game. Adding to this is that Notre Dame is now 16-0 in the regular season under Golson. His elusiveness in the pocket and ability to create on his own is something this Stanford defense hasn't seen this year.

Keep in mind this is a Notre Dame offense that has scored at least 30 points in each of their first four games, including 31 on a talented and underrated Michigan stop unit. Big plays and key turnovers by the defense combined with homefield advantage will be key difference in what could end up being a comfortable win for the Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against the Pac-12 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Notre Dame!

3* Alabama/Ole Miss SEC West Main Event on Alabama -

While I’ve been impressed with Ole Miss and their strong start to 2014, I just don’t feel the Rebels are capable of keeping it within a touchdown against the Crimson Tide. Alabama turned it over 4 times and were still able to put up 42 points and 645 yards of total offense against a solid Florida defense. Defensively they held Florida to to just 200 yards of total offense, giving them a ridiculous 445 yard edge in total yards.

I think that win over the Gators was a huge confidence booster for this team and the one thing that can’t get overlooked is that Alabama is coming into this contest off a bye. That’s given head coach Nick Saban and his staff two full weeks to prepare for Rebels and I believe it will be the difference in this one.

I’m also not 100% sold on Ole Miss being quite as good as their 4-0 start would indicate. This team hasn’t exactly played the toughest of competition. They managed to beat Boise State by 22-points, but only had a 7-6 lead going into the 4th quarter. They also led Memphis just 7-3 before exploding for 17-points in the final period. Not only will Alabama be their best defense they have faced all year, the Crimson Tide are really starting to gel offensively under senior quarterback Blake Sims. If the Rebels stumble offensively early in this one, this game will be over by halftime.

I know the Rebels have put up great defensive numbers so far, but I think that’s more of result of who they have played. Not to say they aren’t strong defensively, I just don’t see them shutting down an elite team like Alabama. Adding to this is the fact that teams who are allowing 4.2 or less yards/play after a game where they allowed 150 or less total yards are just 7-32 (18%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. We also see that home underdogs who are averaging 400 or more yards of total offense after outgaining their previous opponent by 225 or more yards are just 7-27 (21%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The Crimson Tide are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games in the month of October and 22-9 ATS in their last 31 after each of their previous 2 games at home.

There’s also a strong system on Alabama. Road favorites off a win by 10 or more points against a conference rival against an opponent off a cover as a double-digit favorite are 28-8 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Crimson Tide. Take Alabama!

4* Non-Conference ATS Heavy Hitter on Colorado State -

I was on the wrong end of Colorado State's impressive road win last week at Boston College as a 6.5-point underdog. It was the the Rams second outright win as a dog this season, as they knocked off rival Colorado 31-17 as a 2.5-point dog. I was more than impressed with what I saw from Jim McElwain's squad and I got no problem laying this big number at home against a bad Tulsa team.

The Golden Hurricane come in at 1-3 and could very easily be sitting at 0-4, as they were fortunate to win at home against Tulane. Tulsa followed that up with a 45-point loss at home against Oklahoma. They were then beat by 29-points as a 1-point favorite at Florida Atlantic and last week got beat at home 37-34 by Texas State.

Colorado State should have no problem winning here by 3 scores, and there's no way they are overlooking the Golden Hurricane after last year's heartbreaking 27-30 loss at Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They rank 105th against the run (287.5 ypg) and 97th against the pass (218.3 ypg). Colorado State on the other hand features an explosive offense that is 17th in passing (322.0 ypg) and 27th overall (492.0 ypg). The Rams are going to score at will and Tulsa simply won't be able to keep pace.

Colorado State is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams who are allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games versus defenses who are allowing 6.25 or more yards/play.

There's a big time system telling us to fade the Golden Hurricane, as teams who are being outscored by 10+ points/game after two straight games where 70 or more points were scored are just 8-31 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the Rams. Take Colorado State!

*This play is still recommended at -17.5

3* Utah State/BYU NCAAF Late Night ATS Bailout on Utah State +

After taking a closer look into this matchup, this is simply too many points for BYU to be laying in a big rivalry game like this. I know there's uncertainty whether or not starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton will play or not for the Aggies, but backup Darell Garretson has looked good in relief. Garretson has completed 61.3% of his attempts with 3 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. Those are better numbers than what Keeton put up before going down with an injury, as he had completed just 55.4% of his attempts with 2 touchdowns 4 interceptions.

Adding the rivalry aspect of this game is that both teams are very familiar with one another and each are coming in off a bye, giving them plenty of time to prepare for the opposition. Both of these things typically favor the defense and that's where I see the value getting 3 touchdowns.

Another key aspect that should benefit Utah State keeping this one competitive is they have the 4th ranked run defense in the country, giving up just 78.3 ypg and a mere 2.2 yards/carry. Being strong against the run is essential to slowing down the Cougars, who are averaging 230.2 ypg on the ground behind quarterback Taysom Hill and running back Jamaal Williams. Last year the Aggies held BYU to just 159 rushing yards on 50 attempts (3.2 ypg).

The Cougars are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against teams allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards/attempt and have actually lost these games on average by 5.3 ppg. We also see that BYU is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after playing their previous 2 at home, while Utah State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after going under the total in their last contest and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 86% (37-6) system in favor of the Aggies. Take Utah State!

4* Syracuse/Louisville Total Annihilator on UNDER

Both of these teams have been cashing in on the UNDER this season. Louisville has finished below the total in all 4 of their games, while Syracuse has seen their games finish below the mark in 3 straight. I'm expecting a big time defensive battle in this one.

The Cardinals come in ranked 3rd in the country in total defense, giving up just 225.2 ypg. A big reason for that is their dominant run defense, which leads the nation allowing just 58.2 ypg. Syracuse's offense relies on their ability to run the football, which is going to make it very difficult for the Orange to generate a lot of drives that result in points and if they do they will likely have to settle for field goals.

Syracuse doesn't have as strong of numbers defensively as the Cardinals, but they are a respectable 51st, giving up just 374.5 ypg. A lot of that has to do with playing two high-powered offenses in Maryland and Notre Dame. Even with those two opponents, the Orange are only giving up 3.0 yards/carry against the run.

The other key here is that Louisville's offense is not all that potent. The come in ranked 77th in the country and have not been nearly as effective on the road as they have at home. On top of that, the Carrier Dome is a difficult place to play and the Orange's homefield edge should be at full strength in a weekday matchup on ESPN.

UNDER is 34-19 in Syracuse's last 53 games when playing against an opponent that's won more than 75% of their game. It's also 13-3 in Louisville's last 16 games overall and 6-0 in their last 6 road games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in each of their last two games.

There's a solid system backing the UNDER in this one as well. The UNDER is 37-11 over the last 10 seasons with a total of 42.5 to 49 points where the road team is outgaining opponents by 125 or more yards/game after a contest where they had a 225+ yard advantage. That's a 77% system. Take the UNDER!

3* Arizona/Oregon NCAAF Total Dominator on OVER

I look for the Oregon and Arizona to have no problem eclipsing this massive total of 76 points. This is a statement game for Oregon after their poor showing last time out against Washington State, plus they will be out for revenge against a Arizona team that whooped up on them 42-16 last year. I look for the Ducks to come out focused and looking to put up a big number and a nationally televised game.

Last year Arizona took advantage of an unmotivated Oregon team and was able to control the time of possession and protect their lead with the running game. That's not going to be the case this time. Oregon's offense is nearly unstoppable at home. Even Michigan State, who has one of the best defenses in the country gave up 46 points to the Ducks. With the Wildcats playing catchup, they are going to be forced to throw the ball, which will extend the game and give both teams more possessions.

The key here is that Oregon's secondary has not looked great early on. The Ducks come ranked 114th against the pass (315.3 ypg) and will be going up against Arizona's 8th ranked passing attack (365.8 ypg). The Wildcats are going to score and should put up enough points early to keep Oregon on the attack and most importantly keep those starters in for the 2nd half.

OVER is 18-6 in Oregon's last 24 home games when listed as a favorite of 21.5 or more points. There's also a key system backing this one to surpass the total. The OVER is 39-12 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team that allowed 6.25 or more yards/play (Arizona) against an opponent that's gained 450 or more total yards in 4 straight games. That's a 77% system. Take the OVER!

3* Florida Atlantic/FIU NCAAF Total Annihilator on UNDER

Forget the spread, the real value in this matchup is on the total. This game features two awful offenses and should fly UNDER the mark of 48.5. Florida Atlantic is 101st in passing (185.4 ypg) and 96th in rushing (128.2 ypg). FIU is even worse. The Golden Panthers are 100th in passing (185.8 ypg) and 116th in rushing (85.8 ypg).

Defensively the Owls do not have impressive numbers, as they come in ranked 102nd against the pass (283.6 ypg) and 98th against the run (219.0 ypg). However, that is largely due to playing Nebraska and Alabama on the road in non-conference play. Both the Cornhuskers put up 784 yards and the Crimson Tide finished with 620 yards. If you focus on just their three games against Tulsa, Wyoming and UTSA, the Owls are only giving up 135.6 ypg on the ground and just 234.0 ypg through the air.

It's also worth noting that you should not be fooled by FIU's 34 points last week against UAB. The Golden Panthers managed just 297 yards of total offense with a mere 9 first downs. They benefited from 6 turnovers, including two intereceptions that were returned for touchdowns. Also, 160 of their 297 yards came on two long pass plays (75 & 85 yards).

The key here is that for as bad as FIU is offensively, their defense has played well. If you take away the 321 yards rushing they gave up to Pitt, they are have held their other 4 opponents to just 94.5 ypg.

The UNDER is 31-15 in FIU's last 51 games against a team with a losing record, 8-1 in their last 9 against conference opponents and 12-3 in their last 15 home games after having lost 2 of their last 3. The UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in Florida Atlantic's last 6 road games after going over the total last time out. These trends combine to form a 75% (57-19) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Big 12 Game of the Year on Baylor -

There’s no question Iowa State has a history of exceeding expectations at home in night games, just look back to 2011 when they stunned then No. 2 Oklahoma State 37-31 in double-overtime as a 27-point dog. However, this Cyclones’ team is no where near as strong as that 2011 squad. I think this line has been set way to low, as Baylor is just too explosive on offense and the Cyclones are not strong at all defensively.

The Bears come into this matchup ranked 1st in the country in total offense, averaging 654.3 ypg, while Iowa State is 87th in the country in total defense, giving up 417.3 ypg. Even with a rowdy home crowd, the Cyclones aren’t going to be able to slow down Bryce Petty and the Baylor offensive attack. The Bears put up 714 yards of total offense against Iowa State last year and the Cyclones have just 5 starters back on that side of the ball.

So much attention is paid to Baylor’s offense, that a lot of people forget just how strong they are defensively. I know they have had a soft schedule to this point, but they deserve a lot of credit for the numbers they have put up. The Bears are 2nd in the country in scoring defense (9.0 ppg) and 3rd in total defense (221.0 ypg). Iowa State managed just 174 yards and 9 first downs last year against Baylor and their offense comes in ranked 111th in the country (303.0 ypg).

The Cyclones may be able to keep this one close early, but over the course of the game I look for Baylor to build up a comfortable lead to easily win here by more than 3 touchdowns. Iowa State is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.

There’s also a strong system in play, as teams who are averaging 440 or more yards of total offense after gaining 575+ in each of their last two, against an opponent that’s averaging just 280-330 yards/game are 28-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 82% system in favor of the Bears. Take Baylor!

4* Notre Dame/Syracuse ATS No Brainer on Syracuse +

I'm not quite ready to jump on the Notre Dame bandwagon. The only real impressive win to this point was a 31-0 victory over Michigan at home and that's not really anything to brag about with the way Michigan is playing right now. Not to mention the Wolverines shot themselves in the foot with 4 turnovers, as they actually outgained the Fighting Irish 289 to 280.

I just feel we are getting an inflated line here in what's a difficult spot for Notre Dame. While the Fighting Irish come in off a bye, there going to have a difficult time not looking ahead to next week's game against No. 16 Stanford, who they lost to last year 20-27. Syracuse on the other hand is going to be extremely motivated off a loss and going up against a ranked opponent. The Orange haven't beat a ranked opponent since they upset Louisville (who was undefeated) back in 2012 and there's no team they would rather end that streak against than Notre Dame.

From a matchups standpoint there's plenty of reason to like Syracuse getting double-digits. The Orange come in with the 27th ranked defense in the country, giving up just 325.0 ypg, while Notre Dame is 72nd in total offense at just 418.0 ypg. That's saying something when you consider that the Fighting Irish have played two awful defenses in Rice and Purdue.

I also think Syracuse's offense is going to surprise here. Despite losing by 14 points last week to Maryland, the Orange were able to put up 589 yards of offense (outgained the Terrapins by 220 yards). They have a dynamic dual threat quarterback in Terrel Hunt and if there's one thing that can negate a strong run defense it's a quarterback who can make opposing defensive linemen chase him around. I look for the Fighting Irish to wear down defensively and for Syracuse's 19th ranked rushing attack to be the difference in what I feel will be an easy cover and potential outright win for the Orange.

Syracuse is 30-15 ATS ATS in their last 45 after outgaining their opponent by 175 or more yards and 11-2 ATS when they have accomplished that in back-to-back games. The Orange are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 after failing to cover the spread, while Notre Dame is just 13-26 ATS in their last 39 road games in the month of September. Take Syracuse!

5* ACC Game of the Month on Duke +

The Blue Devils should not be catching a touchdown against the Hurricanes. Duke has somehow managed to fly under the radar after last year's improbable season that saw them win the ACC Coastal and finish the year 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS. The Blue Devils are a perfect 4-0 to start 2014 with a 3-1 ATS record.

Miami enters at 2-2, but have not been as impressive as some expected. The Hurricanes have taken care of business against a couple of inferior opponents in Florida A&M and Arkansas State, but in their two big games against Louisville and Nebraska they have lost by double-digits. I think this should be a lot closer to a pick'em than the Hurricanes giving up 7-points.

Duke beat Miami last year 48-30 behind 543 yards of total offense. The Blue Devils have looked just as strong offensively out of the gates, as they come in 16th in the country with 43.5 ppg. Miami's not a strong defensive team and no where near as good as the numbers would indicate. They gave up 31 to Louisville and 41 to Nebraska.

The big key here is that the Blue Devils are a stronger defensive team than anyone gives them credit for. While they have played an easy schedule, Duke is 11th in points allowed (11.5 ppg) and a respectable 43rd in total defense (353.1 ypg). Miami's offense is still a work in progress with true freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya and I look for the Hurricanes to force Kaaya to beat them by loading the box to take away Duke Johnson.

There's a strong system telling us to fade the Hurricanes. Home teams after allowing 37 or more points in their last game against an opponent off back-to-back wins by 28 or more points are just 11-35 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Blue Devils. Take Duke!

3* Missouri/South Carolina SEC Main Event on Missouri +

This may seem like an easy spot to jump on South Carolina after watching Missouri get upset at home by Indiana last week, but I actually believe that loss by the Tigers has created some great value with Missouri getting 6-points. In my opinion there's not a lot that separates these two teams.

South Carolina has bounced back nicely with wins over East Carolina, that huge win at home against Georgia and at Vanderbilt, but you can't forget that ugly 28-52 loss to Texas A&M in the opener. Kenny Hill of the Aggies torched the Gamecocks secondary for 511 yards and 3 touchdowns. South Carolina followed that up by allowing East Carolina to rack up 321 passing yards. Missouri comes in with one of the top young signal callers in the country in Maty Mauk and I believe the Tigers' passing attack is going to allow them to not only keep this game close enough to cover but potentially win outright.

Keep in mind that Missouri has been looking forward to this game for quite some time and it's likely a big reason why they didn't play their best football last week against the Hoosiers. South Carolina went into Columbia and ruined the Tigers' perfect 7-0 start last year. Making the loss sting even that much more was the fact that the Gamecocks won 27-24 in double-overtime.

As impressive as the win was for South Carolina against a highly ranked Georgia team, this is not as strong of a team than what people think. Perfect spot to take advantage of a huge overreaction to the Tigers loss.

There's a strong system backing a play on Missouri, as road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games off an upset home loss as a double-digit favorite are 38-11 ATS since 1992. That's a 78% system in favor of the Tigers. Take Missouri!

3* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Temple/Connecticut UNDER

The is an extremely low total for good reason. We have two of the worst offenses in the country going at it in a conference matchup and both teams are strong on the defensive side of the ball. Points are going to be extremely hard to come by for both of these teams.

Connecticut comes in ranked 120th in the country in total offense, averaging just 253.3 ypg, but have been able to keep games respectable behind a stingy defense that ranks 37th, giving up just 344.1 ypg. There defense is arguably even better than the numbers would suggest. Outside of the 513 yards they gave up to a great BYU offense, the Huskies have held each of their last 3 opponents under 300 yards of total offense. 

Temple has been a little better offensively, as they come in ranked 93rd with an average of 366.0 ypg, but haven't faced a quality defense like what Connecticut brings to the table. Defensively the Owls are 15th in the country in total defense, allowing just 296.0 ypg. They too are even better than their numbers, as they gave up 487 yards rushing to Navy.

I would give the Owls the edge overall, but with this being a home game for Connecticut we should see an evenly matched contest. Even if Temple's offense is able to move the ball and put up some points, I don't see Connecticut doing enough here to exceed this total.

There's a huge system backing this game to go below the total, as the UNDER is 27-4 over the last 10 seasons with a total of 42.5 to 49 points when you have a team that's allowed 3.75 or less yards/play in their last game against an opponent who gained 225 or less total yards in their last contest. That's a 87% system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Situational Oddsmakers Error on NC State +

The books continue to inflate the line in favor of Florida State, knowing that the public will continue to bet them as long as they are undefeated and sitting No. 1 in the country. It’s a big reason why the Seminoles are 0-3 against the spread this season.

Not only is Florida State laying a bigger number than what they should be, this is a horrible spot for them off that huge game against Clemson. The way they won that game and all the drama that surrounded it with Winston being suspended is going to make it very difficult for them to play at their full potential this week.

You also have to like how NC State has bounced back in their last two games, after less than impressive showings at home against Georgia Southern (a lot better team than people realize) and Old Dominion. They come into this matchup with the 26th ranked offense in the country, averaging 502.1 ypg. Their 248.8 rushing ypg ranks 25th and the ability to run should help them keep this game close. Florida State is just 73rd against the run, giving up 170.7 ypg.

I also don't think Florida State isn't nearly as good as they were a year ago and you can't overlook the injuries the Seminoles are dealing with on defense. They will be without starting defensive lineman Mario Edwards, along with key contributors in defensive tackles Nile Lawrence and Justin Shanks, along with linebacker Ukeme Eligwe.

Another big key here is that NC State has a history of not just covering, but upsetting highly ranked teams when they visit Carter-Finley Stadium. Despite going just 3-9 last year, the Wolfpack gave then No. 3 Clemson all they could handle in a 14-26 home loss.

In 2012 Florida State traveled to Raleigh undefeated (5-0) and ranked No. 3 in the country. The Seminoles lost that game outright as a 16-point favorite. If you go back even further, you see that NC State upset No. 7 Clemson 37-13 as a 7-point home dog in 2011 and No. 16 Florida State 28-24 as a 3-point dog in 2010.

Since 2009 the Wolfpack are 5-1-1 ATS at home when hosting a ranked opponent and have won 4 of those games outright (underdog in all 7). Take North Carolina State!

3* NCAAF Total Dominator on FSU/NC State OVER

Last year these two teams combined for 66 points with Florida State doing most of the heavy lifting with 49 points. This year I'm expecting another high-scoring game, expect this time I look for NC State to contribute a lot more to push this way over the current mark of 58.5 points.

Defensively the Seminoles are going to be without several key players, including three key defensive linemen in defensive end Mario Edwards and defensive tackles Nile Lawrence and Justin Shanks. They will also be without outside linebacker Ukeme Eligwe. I know Florida State has a lot of talent, but were talking about a unit that lost 5 of their top 6 tacklers from 2013.

The numbers speak for themselves in how the Seminoles are not as strong defensively this year as they were in 2013. Florida State comes in ranked 50th in the country in total defense, giving up 364.4 ypg, including a staggering 170.7 ypg on the ground. Last year the Seminoles only surrendered 280.0 ypg and just 125.0 ypg on the ground.

NC State has looked especially strong on the offensive side of the ball. They come in ranked 26th in the country in total offense (502.1 ypg), with the strength of their attack being their run game (248.8 ypg). With Florida State likely coming out flat after that big game against Clemson, I'm looking for the Wolfpack to put up close to 30 points.

While the offense has been impressive, the defense isn't as good as the numbers would indicate, as the 159 yards they allowed to USF really throws things off. The Wolfpack gave up 438 yards to Georgia Southern and 504 to Old Dominion. With Winston back in the lineup, I look for Florida State should have no problem scoring close to 40 points. 

There's a key system backing the OVER based on NC State's strong start to 2014. The OVER is 43-16 over the last 10 seasons when you have a total set at 56.5 to 63 points with a home team coming in off 4 or more straight wins and undefeated on the season. That's a 73% system. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Total Annihilator on Maryland/Indians OVER

I'm expecting a ton of offense in this one, as we get two explosive offenses going up against a couple of suspect defenses. Maryland comes in averaging 36.8 ppg and Indiana isn't far behind at 33.7 ppg. Those are impressive numbers when you take into account that the Terrapins have played 3 respectable defenses in non-conference play in USF, West Virginia and Syracuse, while Indiana has faced both Bowling Green and Missouri.

When you look at the defensive numbers of these two teams, you really start to see the value in the OVER. Indiana comes in 82nd in the country, giving up 414.7 ypg. The big key here being that they are 100th against the pass (288.7 ypg) and Maryland is more of a pass-first team with veteran quarterback C.J. Brown and a outstanding receiver in Stefon Diggs. Brown also possess the ability to beat you with his feet, making it that much harder on the Hoosiers defense.

Maryland has been even worse than Indiana defensively. The Terrapins come in ranked 105th in total defense, giving up 460.6 ypg. The Terps have struggled both against the run (199.3 ypg) and the pass (261.3 ypg). The Hoosiers have one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Nate Sudfeld, who comes in completing 65.2% of his attempts with an average completion of 7.72 yards. Indiana also has a big time weapon at running back in Tevin Coleman, who has 569 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground and another 95 yards through the air in just 3 games.

It's also worth noting that this will be the first ever meeting between the two schools and that's typically an advantage for the offenses, as the defense doesn't really know what to expect. Both teams are also coming off big wins that saw them get revenge on opponents they lost to last year, which could have the intensity down a bit on the defensive side of the ball. Maryland beat Syracuse 34-20 (lost to Orange 3-20 in 2013) and Indiana stunned Missouri 31-27 on the road (lost 28-45 to Tigers in 2013).

There's also a huge system in play backing this game to finish OVER the total of 69.5. The OVER is 28-7 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 63 or more with a home team that has an excellent offense (6.1 or more yards/play) after allowing 450 or more total yards in their last two games. That's a 80% system. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAF Non-Conference Heavy Hitter on Boston College -

I was fortunate enough to get in on Boston College at -6 early in the week. This just goes to show the benefit of being a long-term subscriber and getting the plays as soon as I publish them. With that said, I still value this play the same at the current line of -9.5. This is a complete mismatch in talent and I see no reason why the Eagles don't win here by double-digits.

Steve Addazio has done a tremendous job of getting the Eagles headed back in the right direction. Not a lot was expected out of Boston College this year with just 9 starters back, but Addazio's ability to develop players is on full display. The Eagles were also able to bring in former Florida quarterback Tyler Murphy to stabilize the offense and he's done exactly that. Murphy has made the plays in the passing game when needed and comes in leading the team with 500 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. What really stands out is his 9.1 yards/carry.

Boston College should have no problem at all moving the ball against a horrible Colorado State defense. The Rams come in ranked 98th against the run (212.3 ypg) and 91st against the pass (264.3 ypg). The big key here is that Colorado State is giving up 5.2 yards/carry, leaving little doubt that the Eagles will be scoring touchdowns on the majority of their possessions.

On the flip side of this, Colorado State does have a respectable offense. However, they are going to find it a lot more difficult to score against a talented Boston College defense. The Eagles rank 11th in the country in total defense, giving up just 273 ypg. That's impressive when you consider they have played to quality opponents in USC and Pittsburgh.

Boston College is 7-2 ATS in their last 7 home games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their previous game at home. The Eagles are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers. These trends combine to form a 88% (22-3) system in favor of the Eagles. Take Boston College!

3* NCAAF Friday Oddsmakers Error on Fresno State -

I think the Bulldogs are showing great value here as a small road favorite against a New Mexico team they destroyed last year 69-28 with a massive 822 to 316 edge in total yards. Sure Fresno State lost star quarterback Derek Carr and wide outs Davante Adams and Isaiah Burse, but they aren't going to need their passing attack to move the chains against the Lobos.

After playing arguably the toughest schedule in the country over the first three weeks (@USC, @ Utah and Nebraska) and getting embarrassed in the process, the Bulldogs offense exploded for 694 yards in a 56-16 win over Southern Utah. Of those 694 yards, 389 came on the ground. New Mexico has one of the nation's worst run defenses, giving up an average of 302.7 ypg. Fresno State should have no problem marching up and down the field and most importantly punching it into the endzone.

Another big key here is that the Bulldogs have a lot of experience back on defense with 8 returning starters. That experience should pay off against the Lobos option attack. Keep in mind that New Mexico could be without starting quarterback Cole Gautsche. While freshman quarterback Lamar Jordan has been impressive in relief, he's greatly inexperienced. You also have to factor in that there's a good chance New Mexico could fall behind early and this is not a team that's built to play from behind. The Lobos have attempted just 34 passes all season.

There's also a great system here telling us to fade New Mexico. Teams who are getting outscored by 10 or more points/game after 2 straight contests where 70 or more total points were scored are just 7-30 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 81% system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Fresno State!

3* NCAAF Thursday No Doubt ATS Rout on Georgia Southern -

I won big Georgia Southern as a 5* Top Play last weekend and I'm coming right back with Eagles at home against Appalachian State. I know these two teams are familiar with one another as both were members of the FCS Southern Conference prior to joining the Sun Belt this year, but this not quite the same Georgia Southern teams as years past. First year head coach Willie Fritz has changed up the offense to include more passing plays that the strictly run-oriented attack they used under former coach Jeff Monken.

So far it definitely seems to be working in the Eagles' favor. Georgia Southern comes in ranked 18th in the country in total offense at 520.0 ypg. While they only rank 109th in passing, their 154.9 ypg through the air is a big jump from last year's average of just 91.0 ypg. It's hard enough to stop the triple-option attack as it is, it's near impossible when you have to account for the pass as well.

While Georgia Southern has two near wins over FBS opponents on the road against NC State and Georgia Tech, Appalachian State got embarrassed at Michigan 14-52 and this past weekend lost 20-21 at Southern Miss. The Wolverines are clearly not as good as people thought and they allowed Michigan to put up 560 yards of offense, including 350 yards on the ground. I just don't see the Mountaineers being able to slow down Georgia Southern, especially on short rest.

On the flip side of this, I don't see Appalachian State being able to keep pace. While the Mountaineers come in averaging a respectable 33.3 ppg and 424.3 ypg, that's largely due to a 66-0 win over Campbell, which saw them put up 538 yards of offense. It's also worth noting that Appalachian State is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Take Georgia Southern!

3* Oklahoma/West Virginia NCAAF Over/Under Main Event on OVER

The last time these two teams faced off in Morgantown they combined for 99 points and I'm expecting another shootout in 2014. West Virginia has looked as impressive as any team in the country on the offensive side of the ball. The Mountaineers come in ranked 13th in total offense at 564.3 ypg and are 4th in passing behind the emergence of senior quarterback Clint Trickett. That's saying something when you consider one of their games came against Alabama.

Oklahoma has been no slouch on the offensive side of the ball either, the Sooners bring a well balanced attack into this one, which ranks 34th in passing (293.3 ypg) and 42nd in rushing (196.7 ypg). They are also 15th in scoring at 44.7 ppg. West Virginia's defense simply doesn't have the talent to contain Oklahoma. Just this past week they gave up 37 points and 447 yards of total offense to Maryland, including a 163 yards rushing (6.0 ypc).

The Sooners defense enters a respectable 19th in the nation, only giving up 295.3 ypg, but this is without a doubt the best offense they have faced to date. The big key here is that the strength of Oklahoma's defense is their ability to stop the run. West Virginia is a pass-first team and I look for them to rack up a bunch of big plays down the field. If the Mountaineers can throw for 365 yards on Alabama, I got no reason to believe they can't top 400 against the Sooners.

Adding to that is that because West Virginia doesn't run the ball and look for big plays in the passing game, it's going to lead to some quick scores and more importantly stretch this game out and give each team more possessions to work with. Keep in mind that Oklahoma will be without leading rusher Keith Ford, which should have them throwing a little more than normal.

The OVER is 13-3 in West Virginia's last 16 home games against teams who average 250 or passing yards, 23-9 in their last 32 home games after going over the total last time out and 9-1 in their last 10 after throwing for 325+ yards in 2 consecutive games. These trends combine to form a 78% (45-13) system. Take the OVER!

5* Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month on Georgia Southern -

Georgia Southern is one of the best kept secrets and I look for them to have no problem going on the road and beating South Alabama by at least a field goal. In fact, I'm expecting the Eagles to win here by double-digits.

Georgia Southern enters this game with an overall record of just 1-2, but could very easily be 3-0 with two huge upset wins. The Eagles lost 23-34 at NC State as a 20.5-point underdog on a 35-yard touchdown pass with less than 2 minutes to play. They also fell 38-42 at Georgia Tech as a 15.5-point underdog, once again losing in the final seconds. In their only other game against FCS Savannah State, they murdered them 83-9.

South Alabama simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep this one close. The Jaguars come in 79th in the country in passing (224.5 ypg) and 102nd in rushing (121.5 ypg). Their defense isn't bad, but Georgia Southern's option/spread attack is extremely hard to defend, especially if you have never faced it before. The Eagles rank 2nd in the country in rushing at 364.3 ypg and while they don't pass a lot they are capable of picking up big gains through the air.

Just not enough public recognition on Georgia Southern, who just converted from FCS to FBS this season, which is why we are catching such a great line with them only laying a field goal.

Solid system in play here as we see that conference games where one team averages 4.8 or more yards per rush attempt against a team that struggles to run the ball (3.0-3.5 ypc) are 74-32 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Eagles. Take Georgia Southern!

5* NCAAF Over/Under NO LIMIT Total Top Play on Utah St/Arkansas St UNDER

The books have simply not adjusted this total enough. Utah State will be playing this game without star quarterback Chuckie Keeton and Arkansas State will be without their best rusher in Michael Gordon. Keeton was one of just 3 returning starters for the Aggies on the offensive side of the ball and he's without a doubt their best player.

It's also important to note that both of these teams have not been impressive offensively so far in 2014. Utah State ranks 100th in passing (197.0 ypg) and 76th in rushing (157.0 ypg), while Arkansas State is just 73rd in passing (230.0 ypg) and 61st in rushing (172.3 ypg).

Offensively both of these teams focus more on the running game and that sets up well for both defenses. Utah State is only giving up 62 ypg on a mere 2 yards/rush. Arkansas State on the other hand is only allowing 2.0 yards/carry at home and are in a great spot not having to worry about Keeton.

The UNDER is 12-3 in Utah State's last 15 road games after playing 2 straight non-conference games, 10-2 in the Aggies last 12 after two or more straight wins and 16-6 in Arkansas State's last 22 games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards. These trends combine for a 76% (38-11) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Non-Conference Vegas Insider on Minnesota -

I got no problem laying 9.5-points on the Golden Gophers in this one. Minnesota crushed San Jose State 43-24 at home last year and I'm expecting an even bigger blowout this time around. Minnesota has 15 starters back, while the Spartans only return 13. More importantly San Jose State lost their star quarterback David Fales, who left as their all-time leading passer. They also had to part ways with leading wide out Chandler Jones, who departed 2nd on San Jose State's all-time receiving list.

I actually think the line here has been set too low based off Minnesota's ugly 7-30 loss last week at TCU. The Horned Frogs may have only went 4-8 last year, but are one of the most improved teams in the country and I wasn't surprised at all to see the Golden Gophers struggle on the road. That loss should have Minnesota extremely motivated to bounce back with a win, as they know their chances of making a bowl go up drastically if they open up at 3-1.

While Minnesota comes in a bit undervalued, I don't believe the public has caught on to just how bad a shape San Jose State is in. The Spartans won convincingly at home against North Dakota in their opener, but lost the following week by 46-points at Auburn. Even though that was an ugly loss, no one was really expecting the Spartans to keep it close against an SEC power. However, if you look back to last year, this team went on the road and only lost to Stanford 13-34. That right there shows you just how much they have fallen.

I'm also not concerned with San Jose Stand coming off a bye. The Spartans are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest. Adding to this is that Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs the MWC and 7-2 in their last 9 off a loss by more than 20 points. These trend combine to form a 76% (28-9) system in favor of the Golden Gophers. Take Minnesota!

4* Florida/Alabama SEC Total Dominator on UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle Saturday between Florida and Alabama. The Crimson Tide have not been as explosive offensively their 42.0 ppg would suggest. They scored just 33 in the opener against West Virginia, who is the only legit competition they have faced. Florida is a strong defensive team that has 7 returning starters and matches up well with Alabama's offense.

The Gators are strong up front, as they come in allowing just 2.4 yards/rush. I look for them to keep Alabama's high-powered rushing attack in check and really make the Crimson Tide work offensively to move the ball down the field. That should have Alabama eating up a lot of possession. The other key here is that the Crimson Tide have basically only involved star wide out Amari Cooper in the passing game. He leads the nation with 33 receptions and that's 24 more receptions than the next closest player. Florida has the perfect weapon to slow Cooper down and that's stud sophomore corner Vernon Hargreaves.

On the other side of the ball, there's not a lot of explanation needed to why Alabama should be able to keep the Gators offense in check. The Crimson Tide are loaded with talent on the stop unit once again and Florida's offense is nothing to write home about. The Gators only managed to score 20-points in regulation last week against SEC bottom feeder Kentucky at home. Not only will this be their first road test of the season, but it's one of the most difficult places in the entire country to play.

Each of the previous 3 meetings between these two schools at Bryant-Denny Stadium have finished UNDER the total and the two haven't combined for more than 51 points in a game since 1999.

UNDER is 9-1 in Alabama's last 10 games after scoring 50 or points last time out, 34-15 in their last 49 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points and 22-7 in Florida's last 29 off a home game where they failed to cover in a straight up win. These trends combine to form a % 74% (65-23) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Total Annihilator on Virginia/BYU UNDER

The total for Saturday's rematch between BYU and Virginia has been set too high. These two teams played at Virginia last season and combined for just 35 points and 585 yards of total offense and that was with the two teams scoring 16 points in the 4th quarter.

BYU has looked impressive on the offensive side of the ball, thanks in large part to play of junior quarterback Taysom Hill, who has thrown for 689 yards and 4 touchdowns and rushed for another 356 yards and 6 scores. It's no secret that the key to slowing down the Cougars is to keep Hill in check. Virginia did an excellent job of doing just that last year. Hill completed just 13 or 40 pass attempts for 175 yards and was held to 44 rushing yards on 11 carries.

With 9 starters back on the defensive side of the ball and two impressive performances already this season against the likes of UCLA and Louisville, I look for Virginia to have another strong showing defensively in this one.

While the defense looks to be in good shape, I don't see the Cavaliers' having much success offensively against a talented BYU defense that comes in allowing just 14.0 ppg on 313 yards/game. The Cougars have been especially strong against the run, giving up just 2.1 yards/carry. Virginia's offense comes in ranked 97th in passing (203.3 ypg) and 96th in rushing (130.3 ypg). Their best player is senior running back Kevin Parks and when he's not able to get going this team really has a difficult time moving the ball.

The UNDER is 20-8 in Virginia's last 28 games against a team that's allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards/attempt and 14-4 in their last 18 against excellent ball control teams who average 32 or more minutes of possession. The UNDER is also 10-1 in BYU's last 11 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards and 6-0 in their last 6 versus teams who are completing 62% or better of their pass attempts. These trends combine to form a 79% (50-13) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Army/Wake Forest UNDER

I'm expecting an offensive struggle in Saturday's matchup between Wake Forest and Army. These two teams played last year and combined for 36 points. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw even less scoring this time around. Wake Forest is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. In fact, they rank 123rd in the country in total offense, averaging just 237.7 ypg. Army put up 47 points against Buffalo in their opener, but they were shutout and managed just 207 total yards last week against Stanford.

They big key here is that while Wake Forest has been awful on offense, they have looked impressive on the defensive side of the ball in the first year under head coach Dave Clawson. The Demon Deacons rank 17th in the nation in total defense, giving up just 291.3 ypg. Most importantly against a team like Army who basically only runs the ball, is that Wake Forest is giving up just 2.7 yards per rush attempt.

I'm expecting both teams to come in focused on establishing the running game, which should limit possessions for both teams and eat up a lot of clock without much scoring. Exactly what you are looking for to go UNDER the total.

UNDER is 20-7 in the last 27 games Clawson has coached on his team's home field and 32-16 in Wake Forest's last 48 non-conference games. It's also 23-8 in the Demon Deacon's last 31 games overall and 6-1 in their last 7 home games. These trends combine to form a 72% (81-32) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF No Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -

This line opened up at Wisconsin -21.5, but has since been bet up to the Badgers -26.5. For good reason. Wisconsin is hands down the better team in this matchup and should have no problem winning here by at least 4 touchdowns. Bowling Green did manage an impressive win over Indiana last week at home, but they also invested a lot of energy into that game, as they were out for some serious revenge after losing to the Hoosiers by 32-points the previous year.

In the Falcons only road game so far this season, they lost by 28-points to Western Kentucky. That's a pretty good sign that Bowling Green is not as good as they were a year ago and I believe a huge step up competition will show big time on Saturday.

Keep in mind that the Falcons have already lost starting quarterback Matt Johnson for the season and are really hurting defensively right now with injuries. Starting free safety Ryland Ward and weak-side linebacker D.J. Lynch are not expected to play, which is big when you consider they were two of only 5 starters back on that side of the ball and the top two tacklers on the team a year ago. They could also be without defensive tackle Zach Colvin and corner Darrell Hunter, who are both listed as questionable.

Wisconsin is not a team that you want to face at less than full strength, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Badgers have a massive offensive line that should be able to dominate this game and allow them to put up huge numbers on the ground, especially after watching the Falcons give up 235 yards and 6.4 yards/carry on the ground last week to Indiana.

Defensively the Badgers are rock solid and should have no problem keeping Bowling Green's offense in check enough to cover here rather easily. I got Wisconsin scoring 40+ in this one rather easily, which should be plenty to cover this spread.

Wisconsin is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after a home blowout win by 28+ points! We also see that home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points off a bye week are 44-9 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 83% system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin!

5* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Iowa +

I know the Hawkeyes haven't looked great to start the year and are coming off an ugly loss at home to in-state rival Iowa State, but Iowa has a history of playing down to their competition under head coach Kirk Ferentz, which is a big reason why the Hawkeyes are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games following a SU loss. Iowa always finds a way to bounce back and you have to love that with the inflated line we are working with. This game was set at a pick'em before the season started, which essentially has us getting a free 7-points.

Pittsburgh comes in at 3-0, but the Panthers haven't exactly played anybody. They opened with a cupcake game against FCS Delware and followed that up with a couple of easy road games versus Boston College and FIU. While they ended up beating FIU by a final of 42-25, they actually trailed 16-0 in the 1st quarter, which is not a sign of a good team.

Those that have watched Pittsburgh, are well aware of the fact that the Panthers' focus offensively is to run the football with talented sophomore James Conner. Pittsburgh is 5th in the country in rushing at 344.3 ypg and Conner is ranked 2nd nationally with 544 yards. That's some impressive numbers, but that came against weak competition. The strength of the Iowa defense is their ability to shutdown the run behind a talented defensive line. Iowa is only giving up 66 ypg on the ground and allowing a mere 2.3 yards/carry.

Simply put, this is a great matchup for Iowa on the defensive side of the ball. Adding to this is the fact that Iowa is an incredible 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games against teams averaging 230 or more rushing yards per game and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 versus teams averaging 37 or more points/game. These two trends combine to form a Dynamite 83% (35-7) system in favor of the Hawkeyes! Take Iowa!

3* UConn/South Florida NCAAF Total Annihilator on UNDER

I was a bit surprised that the books opened this total as high as they did, but you won't find me complaining about the value. Not only do we have two awful offenses going head-to-head, but these two schools have a history of playing extremely low-scoring games when they face off on the gridiron. In fact, each of the last four meetings between these two teams have seen a combined score of 35-points or less, including last year's matchup that saw a whopping 23-points in USF's 13-10 win. '

While South Florida's defense was torched for 49 points and 589 yards of total offense last week by NC State, UConn simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to come anywhere close to that kind of offensive production. The Huskies come into this game ranked 115th out of 125 FBS teams in total offense, averaging just 289.3 ypg. I mean Connecticut only managed to score 19 points and muster 223 yards of offense at home against Stony Brook.

The Bulls have been equally bad on offense, as they come in ranked 113th in total offense at just 300.3 ypg. The big key here is that South Florida has no passing attack. The Bulls are 116th in the nation, averaging just 151.3 ypg through the air. Connecticut has been respectable against the run given the teams they have played. They are only allowing 3.6 yards/carry and most of the yards they have allowed came against BYU’s (205) high-powered attack. The Huskies limited Boise State’s talented back Jay Ajayi to just 39 yards on 18 attempts (2.2 ypc). With no threat of the pass, I look for Connecticut to have no problem shutting down the Bulls’ offense.

There's a strong system in play, as the UNDER has gone 52-20 since 1992 in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points when the road team comes off a contest where they allowed 75 or less rushing yards against an opponent who gained 75 or less rushing yards in their last game. That's a 72% system pointing clearly in our direction. Take the UNDER!

3* Auburn/Kansas State NCAAF Main Event on K-State +

The fact that Auburn has covered 13-straight games dating back to last season is impressive, but it's a streak that is going to come to an end sooner rather than later. There's no question that this line has been inflated by the books and I believe the Tigers luck will have run out in a huge nationally televised game on the road in a weekday game against Kansas State.

Bill Snyder and the Wildcats have a history of not just covering the spread as a home dog, but winning the game outright. Kansas State also has a history of delivering a strong performance against ranked opponents. Only once in the last 3 years have they lost to a ranked opponent by more than 10-points and they have played 11 ranked teams during this stretch. Manhattan will be rocking and that energy inside the stadium is going to have Kansas State playing like this is the Super Bowl.

Last year the Tigers played just 4 true road games and were no where near as impressive as they were at home. They lost at LSU 21-35, barely squeaked by Texas A&M 45-41 and the other two wins came against Arkansas and Tennessee, who went a combined 2-14 in SEC play.

It's also worth noting that this a rare true road game in non-conference play for Auburn and it's not a spot they have performed well in. In each of the previous 5 times they have been in this spot, the Tigers have lost the game outright. Their last win in this situation was back in 1997 on the road against Virginia. I’m not saying Auburn will lose this contest, but this is a pretty good indicator that they won’t be as dominant as some might expect.

We also see a strong system in play on Kansas State, as home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with an experienced starter back at quarterback in a non-conference game in the first month of the season are 130-71 ATS since 1992. That's a 65% system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Kansas State!

3* NCAAF ATS Oddsmakers Error on Arizona State -

I have no problem laying 15-points on Arizona State away from home against a bad Colorado squad. The Sun Devils traveled to New Mexico and beat the Lobos 58-23 this past weekend and I don't see them letting off the gas in their conference opener. Arizona State also has a chance to improve to 3-0 for the first time since 2007, so there's plenty of motivation here for the No. 16 ranked Sun Devils.

Colorado has not looked good at all in their first two games of 2014. The Buffaloes lost their opener to Colorado State 17-31, who they had beat the previous year 41-27. They followed that up by barely squeaking by a horrible UMass team 41-38. With the way Arizona State is moving the ball on offense, I just don't see the Buffaloes having any chance of keeping this one competitive. UMass only managed 7 points in their opener against a suspect Boston College defense and the 38-points they scored against Colorado was their highest mark since they put up 42 against FCS foe Central Connecticut back in 2011.

This will be the 4th straight year these two teams have played and each of the previous 3 haven't been close. Arizona State won 48-14 in 2011, 51-17 in 2012 and 54-13 last season. I'm expecting a very similar score in 2014.

Home teams who allowed 37 or more points in their last game against an opponent off back-to-back wins by 28+ points are just 10-33 (23%) ATS over the last 10 seasons, while road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who outgained opponents by 75 or more yards/game the previous year are 33-9 (79%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Arizona State!

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Texas A&M -

Last year Texas A&M beat Rice by a final of 52-31, despite the fact that Johnny Manziel didn't play the entire first half. I'm expecting a much bigger blowout this time around. The Aggies have looked near unstoppable on offense in their first two games of 2014 behind sophomore sensation Kenny Hill, talented playmakers at the skill positions and one of the best offensive lines in the country.

The two biggest keys to why I believe Texas A&M will win by exceed last year's performance against Rice, is the huge improvements that the Aggies have made on the defensive side of the ball and the Owls simply being nowhere close to as good as they were a season ago.

If Notre Dame can put up 48 points and 576 yards of total offense against Rice, there's no reason not to think Texas A&M can't score 60 and flirt with 700 yards of total offense. With head coach Kevin Sumlin pushing his team to be even better and no reason to look ahead with SMU on deck, the Aggies could have this spread covered by halftime.

Couple of strong systems in play. First, teams after allowing 37 or more points against an opponent after back-to-back wins by 17+ points are just 34-77 (31%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Second, home favorites after a win by 35 or more points against an opponent after a game with a combined 60 or more total points scored are 150-87 (63%) ATS since 1992! Take Texas A&M!

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total No Brainer on BC/USC OVER

I look for USC and Boston College to fly over the total of 50.5 on Saturday. USC scored 52 points and put up over 700 yards of total offense in their opener against Fresno State, as they ran a conference-record 105 plays. The Trojans are clearly trying to play at a faster pace this year and I don't see the Eagles being able to slow them down.

Boston College allowed Pittsburgh to score 30 points on 414 yards of total offense at home last week and it could have been a lot worse had the Panthers not had to settle for 3 field goals. USC is on a whole different level than Pittsburgh in terms of talent and athleticism on the offensive side of the ball and I wouldn't be shocked if they covered the total on their own.

However, I do expect to see Boston College score some points, whether it come early or late in the game when this one has turned into a blowout. USC has a strong defense, but I just don't see them playing with a ton of intensity on that side of the ball after laying it all on the line last week against Stanford.

I see no way the Trojans don't manage at least 500 yards of total offense, which is an important number. The OVER is 14-4 in Boston College's last 18 games when they allow 500+ yards of total offense and 7-0 in the Trojans last 7 games when they gain 500+ yards of total offense. Take the OVER!

*Even with the total jumping up to 55, I still recommend a play on the OVER*

4* NCAAF ATS Heavy Hitter on Alabama -

This may seem like a huge number to lay on the Crimson Tide, as they haven't beat a team all season by this margin, let alone score 48 points. However, there's an important aspect here that has me believing Alabama will come out strong and cover this massive spread. Despite beating Florida Atlanta 41-0 last week as a 41-point favorite, The Crimson Tide dropped from No.2 to No. 3. I know Alabama is saying they don't care, but that's a bunch of BS. I look for the Crimson Tide to come out with a chip on their shoulder and look to make a statement.

That's bad news for a Southern Miss team that had no chance in this one if Alabama played their backups the entire game. The Golden Eagles barely escaped with a 26-20 win over Alcorn State at home last week and already lost on the road to Mississippi State 49-0 earlier this season.

Unless Southern Miss gets some kind of fluke score, I don't see them scoring at all in this game. Defensively the Golden Eagles can't stop the run and have a tendency of giving up big yardage on the ground. Alabama should score even when they are just trying to run out the clock.

Home teams who have gained 575+ yards of total offense in their last 2 games with just 5 players returning on defense at 27-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 84% system in favor of the Crimson Tide. Take Alabama!

3* Non-Conference Total Dominator on TCU/Minnesota UNDER

I feel like the books have set this total too high based on what these two offenses have done against poor competition. Minnesota put up 42 points on Eastern Illinois and 35 against Middle Tennessee, while TCU hung 48 on Samford.

I don't see either offense having anywhere close to that kind of success in this one. Both of these teams return a lot of talent to a couple of strong defensive units from last year. The Golden Gophers have 7 starters back on a defense that allowed just 22.2 ppg in 2013, while the Horned Frogs return 7 from a unit that only gave up 25.3 ppg. TCU has always fielded a strong defense under head coach Gary Patterson and Minnesota has improved with each year under head coach Jerry Kill.

Another big key here is that both of these team focus more on the run. TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin threw for 320 yards and 2 scores against Samford, but he's not your typical pocket passer. He only had 1,198 yards and 7 TDs over 9 starts last year, which has me thinking his big numbers in Week 1 are result of the competition. Minnesota on the other hand is almost exclusively only looking to run. The Golden Gophers had 40 rushing attempts to 18 passes against Eastern Illinois and 50 rushing attempts to just 11 passes versus Middle Tennessee.

Both teams should eat up a lot of clock when they have the ball and with the strong defenses I don't see enough big plays for this game to eclipse 48 points.

UNDER is 10-4 in Minnesota's last 14 games played on grass, 16-5-1 in their Horned Frogs last 22 after accumulating more than 280 passing yards and 8-3 in their last 11 after allowing less than 20 points. These trends combine to form a 74% (34-12) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAF Afternoon ATS No Doubt Rout on Ole Miss -

This is a complete mismatch in talent and I see no reason why Ole Miss won't win here by at least 4 touchdowns. You have one of the top teams in the SEC, which is considered the best conference in the country against a team from the Sun Belt, which is considered the worst conference in the country. With a bye week on deck before another non-conference game, there's no reason for Ole Miss to look past this game and if they want to move up in the polls they have to win here impressively.

Based on what I saw last week from Louisiana-Lafayette, that should be a problem. The Ragin' Cajuns were embarrassed on their home field by Louisiana Tech. They gave up 48 points and 533 yards of total offense. Ole Miss comes in ranked 7th in the country in passing at 377.0 ypg and 32nd in total offense. Senior quarterback Bo Wallace looks as good as ever and should be able to march the Rebels into the endzone just about every time they touch the football.

In order to cover a big spread like this, you have to be solid defensively and Ole Miss is just that. The Rebels come in ranked 27th in the country in total defense and have allowed just 16 points in two games against Boise State and Vanderbilt.

There's a couple of key systems in play in this one. First, Teams who allowed 37 or more points in their last game against an opponent off back-to-back wins by 17+ points are just 34-77 (31%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Second, Home favorites who averaged 450 or more total yards the previous year with an experienced starting quarterback returning are 53-19 (74%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Ole Miss!

4* Week 3 NCAAF ATS No Brainer on Arkansas +

I like Arkansas chances of winning this game outright, which has me siding with the Razorbacks as a 1-point underdog. I haven't been impressed at all with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have barely scraped by with wins against a couple of lackluster opponents.

On the other hand, I like what I have seen out of the Razorbacks early on. They were right there with Auburn on the road, but just fell apart in the 2nd half. I came in expecting big improvements out of Arkansas in the second year under head coach Bret Bielma and I haven't seen anything so far to change my mind.

The Razorbacks come in ranked 12th in the country in rushing at 324.0 ypg behind an impressive offensive line. I look for Arkansas to move the ball at will against the Red Raiders and score just about every time they touch the ball. If Texas Tech's offense stumbles at all, this game could turn into a blowout rather quickly.

I'm not surprised at all to see Texas Tech under-perform against inferior opponents. Texas Tech's back-to-back winning seasons have been greatly aided by a cupcake non-conference schedule. With just 13 starters back and only 4 of those coming on defense, 2014 looks to be a major rebuilding year for Kliff Kingsbury and his staff.

Texas Tech does have a high-powered offense, which is the only reason they are sitting at 2-0 instead of 0-2. Arkansas is without a question the best defense they will have faced this season and I just don't see them being able to score enough to come out with a win.

Arkansas is 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games after scoring 42 or more points and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 after a game where 70 or more total points were scored. The Razorbacks are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the Big 12, while Texas Tech is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 200 or more rushing yards. These trends combine to form a 72% (71-28) system in favor of the Razorbacks. Take Arkansas!

4* Virgina/Louisville ACC Total Annihilator on UNDER

I don't see Louisville and Virginia exceeding 49 combined points on Saturday. The Cardinals' defense completely shutdown Miami in their ACC debut in Week 1, limiting the Canes to just 244 yards of total offense. Virginia has also had an impressive defensive showing against a potent offense, as they held UCLA to just 358 yards and held the Bruins offense to just 7 points.

What really impressed me with Louisville against Miami was their defensive front, which held star running back Duke Johnson to just 90 yards on 20 attempts and overall held the Hurricanes to just 70 yards on 27 attempts (2.6 yards/carry). Virginia likes to run their offense through running back Kevin Parks and I just don't see them being able to establish the run here, which should have their offense completely out of rhythm.

Virginia is giving up just 2.5 yards/carry on the ground and have been respectable against the pass. The Cavaliers are better defensively than they get credit for because of last year's 2-10 record. They have 9 starters back on that side of the ball and I look for them to give Louisville's inexperienced sophomore quarterback Will Gardner a lot of problems. 

With both offenses figuring to have a difficult time moving the ball, I don't expect to see many touchdowns in this one, which is crucial for going under a total of just 49 points.

There's a strong system in play. The UNDER has hit 75% (39-13) of the time over the last 10 seasons with a total of 42.5 to 59 points where the home team allowed 3 or less points in the 1st half of their last game in a matchup between two teams that are both outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAF Smart Money Vegas Insider on Maryland -

This is a great spot to jump on the Terrapins at home as a 3-point home favorite. West Virginia is getting a lot of love for playing Alabama close in their opener, but I'm not high on the Mountaineers at all this season. Maryland on the other hand is a team that I think is flying under the radar. The Terrapins have 17 returning starters back from a team that went 7-6 last year, but had they been able to stay healthy they would have potentially flirted with a double-digit win season. Maryland's 53 starts lost to injury were the 2nd most in the country.

The Terrapins actually played West Virginia early in the year when they were close to full strength and they destroyed the Mountaineers 37-0. West Virginia had just 6 first downs and were outgained on the game 330 to 175 (+155).

West Virginia is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a SU win by more than 20 points, 4-12 in their last 16 after accumulating more than 450 yards of total offense and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a losing record. Maryland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after allowing less than 20 points. Add it up and that's a 74% (45-16) system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland!

4* Houston/BYU Over/Under Total Dominator on OVER

The books have simply not set the bar high enough in this one. I look for BYU and Houston to fly OVER the total of 57. Last year these two teams combined for 93-points in a 47-46 BYU vicotry. It might not be that high-scoring, but I don't see this one finishing with less than 60 points with the talent these two teams have on offense.

BYU has been one of the more impressive teams in the early going of 2014. The Cougars put up 35 on the road against Connecticut in their opener and 41 at Texas this past weekend. Offenses typically are even better at home and I expect that to be the case for BYU on Thursday. Last year the Cougars put up 681 yards of total offense against Houston and I just haven't seen enough from Houston to believe they are going to slow down Taysom Hill and BYU's high-powered attack.

One of the reasons I think this total is so low, is because of the fact that BYU has only allowed 17 points combined in their first two games. While that's an impressive accomplishment, it came against a couple of bad offensive teams. Connecticut is picked to finish last in the American Athletic and average just 20.6 ppg in 2013. Texas was without starting quarterback and playing behind an offensive line that didn't feature a single returning starter.

I look for Houston to be able to move the ball at a similar rate to what we saw last year in this matchup. BYU lost their leading tackler in linebacker Uani Unga and their 2-time All-American linebacker in Kyle Van Noy. Last year Houston's passing attack racked up 435 yards and it's teams who can pick up big yards through the air that tend to give BYU the most trouble.

The OVER is 23-9 in Houston's last 32 games off a home win by 17 or more points, 27-10-1 in their last 38 games after allowing 20 points or less and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games played on a Thursday. These trends combine to form a 75% (56-19) system. Take the OVER!

3* North Texas/LA Tech Total Annihilator on UNDER

I'm expecting both teams to struggle to get their offense going in this one. These two teams combined for just 41 points in last year's meeting and I'm expecting even less than that this time around.

North Texas is coming in off a dominant defensive performance at home against SMU. The only points the Mean Green allowed the entire games against the Mustangs came on a last second 33-yard touchdown pass as time expired in regulation. Of the 276 yards of total offense North Texas gave up to SMU, 147 of those yards came on their final two drives with the game already in the books.

Louisiana Tech returned 7 starters to a defense that only allowed 26.3 ppg in 2013. While they allowed 48 in their opener against a much more talented Oklahoma squad, they held a potent Louisiana-Lafayette offense to just 20 points last week. North Texas isn't as strong of an offensive team as the 43-points they scored last week would indicate. The Mean Green rely almost exclusive on their running game, as they don't have much to work with at the quarterback position. The Bulldogs know this and are going to load the box and force North Texas to try an beat them with the pass.

I look for the Mean Green to come in focused on strong defense and controlling the time of possession with their ground attack. I just don't see enough possessions here for these two teams to surpass this total.

The UNDER is 11-2 in their last 13 games after a win by 17 or more points, 8-0 in North Texas' last 8 home games against a conference opponent and 8-0 in their last 8 games after scoring 42 points. These trends combine to form a Dynamite 93% (27-2) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Colorado St/Boise St Late Night ATS Bailout on Boise St -

I believe Boise State is showing great value as they come in undervalued after a lopsided 13-35 loss to Ole Miss as a 10-point underdog. The key thing to note is that game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate. The Broncos only trailed 6-7 before a meltdown in the 4th quarter that saw them give up 4 touchdowns.

Colorado State on the other hand is getting a little bit too much respect for their 31-17 win over in-state rival Colorado. The Rams actually trailed 7-17 early in that game and it really doesn't say much when you beat a poor team like Colorado.

It's no secret that Boise State is a completely different monster at home compared to on the road. The Broncos have a ridiculous 61-3 record on the blue turf at Bronco Stadium. Last year Boise State went on the road and beat the Rams 42-30, but it wasn't as close as the final score. The Broncos were up 42-17 in the 4th quarter before Colorado State added to late touchdowns.

Boise State is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games in the month of September, 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring less than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after a SU loss.

Home teams that averaged 450 or more total yards/game the previous year, with an experienced QB returning as starter are 43-14 ATS over the last 5 years in the first two weeks of the season. That's a 75% system in favor of the Broncos. Take Boise State!

4* NCAAF Over/Under Total Dominator on New Mexico/Arizona St OVER

I look for Arizona State and New Mexico to have no issues eclipsing the total of 67 for this matchup. Don't be fooled by the Sun Devils only allowing 14-points in their opener against a bad FCS opponent in Weber State. Arizona State has just two starters back on the defensive side of the ball and are going to give up a lot more than 14-points when they play better teams.

While New Mexico isn't a top notch opponent, I like their chances of moving the football against the Sun Devils. The Lobos put up 410 rushing yards against UTEP in the opener and their option-based attack is difficult to prepare for, especially for a team like Arizona State that doesn't see a whole lot of it.

As for the Arizona State offense, they should have no problem putting up a big number against a Lobos' defense that surrendered 446 yards to UTEP. That was actually a better than normal performance for the defense, as New Mexico allowed 42.8 ppg and 517 ypg in 2013. They allowed more than 65-points twice last year and I wouldn't be surprised if the Sun Devils flirted with that mark in this one.

Solid system in play on the OVER in this one. The OVER is 30-7 (81%) since 1992 in games with a total of 63 or more points, where one team allowed 24 or more points in the first half of their last game (New Mexico) against an opponent who was leading at the half by 24 or more points in their last contest. Take the OVER!

4* Small Conference ATS Heavy Hitter on UL-Lafayette -

I'm expecting a Louisiana-Lafayette blowout win at home over Louisiana Tech. A lot of people don't realize just how good this Ragin' Cajuns team is because of the fact that they play in the Sun Belt. Lafayette has won 9 games each of the last 3 years and could have topped double-digits last year had star quarterback Terrance Broadway not went down with an injury.

The Ragin' Cajuns have 19 starters back and return to their three big time playmakers on offense in Broadway, running back Alonzo Harris and wide out Jamal Robinson. Lafayette averaged 33.8 ppg on 417 yards of total offense last year and I expect them to top both of those marks in 2014. They are well on their way after a 45-6 blowout win over Southern University.

I just don't expect the Louisiana Tech's defense to put up much of a fight. The Bulldogs lost 3 of 4 starters up front on the defensive line and it showed in their 16-48 loss at Oklahoma last week. That score doesn't even tell the whole story. The Sooners jumped out to a 31-0 lead in the first half before calling off the dogs and both of the Bulldogs touchdowns came in garbage time in the 4th quarter. Louisiana Tech simply isn't going to be able to stop the Ragin' Cajuns from scoring and offensively this team doesn't have the talent to keep pace, especially on the road.

Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt the previous season, with an experienced QB returning as starter are 31-8 ATS over the last 10 years in the first two weeks of the season. That's a 80% system in favor of the Ragin' Cajuns. Take Louisiana-Lafayette!

5* NCAAF Non-Conference Total of the Month on USF/Maryland UNDER

This may seem like a low total based on what these two teams did in their opener, but I look for this one to finish well below the mark. Maryland scored 52 points in their opener at home against James Madison, which isn't saying much. South Florida's defense isn't great but it's more than capable of slowing down the Terrapins. It's also worth noting that Maryland isn't as strong of a team on the road as they are at home.

The big key here is that I don't expect the Bulls to do much of anything offensively. South Florida scored 36 last week against a bad Western Carolina squad and did so almost exclusively running the football. They had 294 yards rushing and just 181 yards passing. The Bulls are going to find it much more difficult to run against the Terrapins. Maryland has 9 starters back on a defense that only gave up 149 yards (3.7 ypc) last year. Due to USF not having a passing game they can rely on, the Bulls will keep running and eating up clock, which is exactly what we are looking for.

The UNDER is 22-9 in Maryland's last 31 games after scoring 37 or more points and 21-9 in their last 30 after a win by 17+ points. The UNDER is also 13-3 in South Florida's last 16 games when listed as an underdog and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after a game that finished over the total. These trends combine to form a 75% (63-21) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAAF Vegas Insider Top Play on Utah -

The Utes should have no problem blowing out Fresno State and covering the 11.5-point spread at home. Utah has a big time homefield advantage and that's a big reason why I'm not worried about the Bulldogs. The Utes 48-14 over their last 62 home games (10+ seasons). They absolutely crushed Idaho State 56-14 and it could have been a lot worse had they not called off the dogs after jumping out to a 35-7 advantage in the first half.

The other big key here is that Fresno State is way down this year, yet are still getting some love from winning the Mountain West last season. The Bulldogs returned just 5 starters on offense and had to replace their all-time leading passer in Derek Carr and both of their top two receivers. They did return 8 starters on defense, but that's nothing to get excited about when those players were responsible for the team give up 30.3 points and 431 yards of total offense a game last year.

Fresno State got absolutely embarrassed by USC last week 13-52 and it could of been worse, as the Trojans didn't score a single point in the 4th quarter. The Bulldogs managed just 317 yards of total offense, while the defense surrendered a ridiculous 701 yards. If USC can beat this team by 39-points in basically 3 quarters, I see no reason why Utah can win here by at least two touchdowns.

Fresno State is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing 50 points and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games after being outgained by 125 or more total yards. Utah on the other hand is 24-9 ATS after playing a game where 70 or more total points were scored.

There's a solid system here backing the Utes. Home favorites after a win by 35 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 149-84 ATS since 1992. That's a 64% system in favor of the Utes. Take Utah!

3* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Miss St/UAB OVER

I'm expecting this game to fly over the total. Both of these teams put on a show offensively in their opener. Mississippi State scored 49 points on 550 yards of total offense versus Southern Miss, while UAB put up 48 points on 490 yards of total offense in their win over Troy.

It should come as no surprise that I'm expecting the majority of the points scored here to come from the Bulldogs. UAB may have held Troy to just 10 points, but they are completely outmatched against a big time opponent from the SEC. Last year the Blazers gave up 56 points to LSU and 52 to Vanderbilt. I fully expect to see Mississippi State to score at least 45 and wouldn't be surprised if they topped 50.

With that said, I do think the Blazers will be able to add in some garbage points late and potentially even a touchdown or two early. UAB added in former Washington State recruit Cody Clement at quarterback and have a big time playmaker at running back in Jordan Howard.

Further supporting my play here is the fact that the OVER is a perfect 6-0 in UAB last 6 games when listed as a road underdog and in these games they have seen an average combined score of 74 points. Take the OVER!

3* Week 2 NCAAF Oddsmakers Error on Purdue -

Purdue opened up the season with a 43-34 win over Western Michigan at home and I look for them to have no problem making it two straight against the MAC when they host Central Michigan this Saturday. The Chippewas were fortunate to beat FCS foe Chattanooga last week, as they trailed 0-16 before rallying to win 20-16.

The Boilermakers are simply not getting enough respect against an inferior opponent because of their 1-11 record last year. I like the value with a undervalued power conference school against a small conference opponent.

Purdue is a much stronger team this season, as they get back 15 starters and will be in the 2nd go of things with head coach Darrell Hazell. They are also utilizing senior Raheem Mostert a lot more, who has blazing speed that gives the Boilermakers the homerun threat they have been needing. Mostert had 22 carries for 146 yards and a touchdown against Western Michigan.

While the Chippewas have 19 returning starters, this is a team that simply has got it done on the field under head coach Dan Enos. Watching them struggle to beat an FCS opponent is a good sign that this year will be no different. In Central Michigan's two games last season against a power conference, they were destroyed 59-9 at Michigan and 48-14 at NC State.

The Chippewas are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games played in the first half of the season. They are also just 9-20 ATS under Enos when listed as an underdog and a mere 4-12 ATS in non-conference games. These trends combine to form a 73% (43-16) system in favor of the Boilermakers. Take Purdue!

4* Pitt/Boston College NCAAF Total Annihilator on UNDER

I believe the books have set the mark too high in Friday's ACC showdown between Pittsburgh and Boston College. The Panthers exploded for 62 points in their opener against Delware, but don't let that fool you into thinking Pitts going to have an explosive offense. Pittsburgh only average 26.3 ppg last year and played in the weak AAC.

Boston College on the other hand only managed to score 30 points against a bad UMass defense that allowed 33.0 ppg in 2013. The Eagles only returned 3 starters on offense and lost their most important piece in running back Andre Williams, who had 2,177 yards and 18 touchdowns.

Another key point to make is that both of these teams focus their offense around the running game, which should limit the amount of possessions for both squads. I look for touchdowns to be hard to come by and I'm not expecting much of anything offensively from BC.

The UNDER is 7-2 in Pittsburgh's last 9 games played on a Friday, 9-4 in their last 13 after a game where they scored more than 20 points and 7-2 in their last 9 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing. The UNDER is also 5-0 in Boston College's last 5 games on Friday, 10-1 in their last 11 after allowing 275 or less total yards and 20-7 in their last 27 following a SU win.

3* Arizona/UTSA NCAAF ATS Annihilator on UTSA +7.5

There's no question that Arizona looked strong in their opener at home against UNLV, which saw them cruise to a 58-13 victory. With that said, the Wildcats have not been a strong road team under Rich Rodriguez. They are just 4-6 away from home and while they went 3-3 last year those 3 wins came against the likes of UNLV, Colorado and California.

I know Arizona beat UTSA 38-13 at home last year, but that score was a bit misleading. The Roadrunners put up a respectable 379 yards of total offense and yet only scored 13 points. This year's UTSA team is even stronger, as they return 20 starters from last year. They come in off a 27-7 road win over Houston in Week 1, the same team they lost to at home last year 28-59. I really like what head coach Larry Coker is doing with this program and I wouldn't be shocked if the Roadrunners pulled off their second straight upset. 

Either way there's a big time system in play on UTSA to cover the spread. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who were a marginal winning team from last season (51% to 60%) playing a team that had a winning record, in non-conference games are 26-6 ATS since 1992. That's a 81% system in favor of the Roadrunners. Take UTSA!

4* Miami/Louisville No Brainer on Miami +

I think the books have created some huge value on the Hurricanes as a 3.5-point underdog against Louisville. This is a huge revenge spot for Miami, who fell to the Cardinals 9-36 in last year's Russell Athletic Bowl. The Hurricanes have 14 starters coming back from that team, including star running back Duke Johnson, who was injured for the bowl. Miami started last year 7-0 with Johnson healthy and I look for the Hurricanes to be a force as long as he's on the field in 2014. Miami has continued to get better and better with each season under Al Golden.

Louisville on the other hand has just 11 starters returning and have the difficult task of replacing star quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. They also have just 4 starters back on a defense that lost two first round NFL picks in defensive end Marcus Smith and safety Calvin Pryor. If that wasn't enough to overcome, the Cardinals have lost top returning receiver DeVante Parker to a foot injury. Louisville will also be transitioning to new schemes, as Bobby Petrino has replaced Charlie Strong. I have a lot of respect for Petrino as a coach, but I just don't see him working his magic in this short a period of time with so much talent lost.

I'll gladly take the 3.5-points, but I'm fully expecting Miami to win this game outright and wouldn't be shocked if they did so by double-digits. BET MIAMI +3.5!

4* Utah State/Tennessee NCAAF Vegas Insider on Utah State +

Utah State is coming off a surprising finish to last season. The Aggies won the MWC Mountain division over Boise State, despite losing star quarterback Chuckie Keetan to a season-ending knee injury just 6 games into the year. Utah State would come up short against Fresno State in the MWC Championship Game, but would go on to beat Northern Illinois 21-14 in the Poinsettia Bowl for a 9-5 overall record. 

With Keetan returning, I look for Utah State to give the Volunteers all they can handle. Tennessee hasn't been able to get anything going over the last few years and I don't see them breaking out in 2014 with just 10 returning starters. 

There's a solid system telling us to fade the Volunteer. A home team in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games, with 5 offensive starters returning are just 10-35 ATS over the last 10 years. That's a 78% system in favor of the Aggies. Takes Utah State +5!

4* Auburn/Arkansas SEC Vegas Insider on Arkansas +

Not surprised to see Auburn coming into 2014 extremely overvalued on the spread after last year's miracle season that saw them play in the BCS Championship Game. It's not that I don't think the Tigers will be a quality team this year, but this is way too many points for them to be laying in the opener. Auburn not only has to find a replacement for the departure of star running back Tre Mason, but they will be without starting quarterback Nick Marshall in this matchup.

Without those two the Tigers offense would have been mediocre at best last year and I look for them to struggle to move the chains against a hungry Arkansas team that has a lot to prove after last year's dismal 3-9 campaign in the first year under head coach Bret Bielema. With Marshall and Mason the Tigers only beat Arkansas by 18-points last year. With those two not playing, along with some big losses on defense in the likes of Dee Ford, Chris Davis and Ryan Smith, I don't think it's out of the question that the Razorbacks could pull off the upset.

What a lot of people overlook is how much better this Arkansas team played down the stretch. In their final 3 games they lost at Ole Miss by 10-points, fell at home to Mississippi State in overtime and lost at LSU by 4-points. With 14 starters back and a much better understanding of Bielema's schemes, I look for the Razorbacks to be one of the most improved teams in the SEC this season. Take Arkansas +19.5!

3* NCAAF Saturday No Doubt Rout on Purdue -

I believe this is a case where you have a team that struggled the previous year in a big conference not getting the respect they deserve against an inferior opponent. Purdue may have finished 1-11 and 0-8 inside the Big Ten, but a lot of that had to do with them deciding to play young guys to better prepare them for 2014.

It's also worth noting that their opponent in Western Michigan played 3 games against Big 10 foes last year. They lost all 3 by double-digits including a 21 point loss to Northwestern and 56 defeat at the hands of Iowa.

Purdue has 15 starters back this year, will be in the second season under head coach Darrell Hazell and should get a lot better play out of the quarterback position than they did a year ago. Western Michigan has just 5 starters back on a defense that allowed 35.4 ppg on 419 yards of total offense, including a 250 ypg on the ground. Purdue is going to be able to move the football and put up points and I look for their defense to keep the Broncos in check. Take Purdue -9.5!

5* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Month on Virginia +

UCLA is getting a lot of hype coming into the season and as a result they are overvalued on the spread in the opener against Virginia. It's going to be difficult for the Bruins to play their best football on the road in the first game of the season, especially with the distance they have to travel for this contest and the early start time that comes with it. The game will be played at 12:00 pm in Charlottesville, which is going to feel like a 9:00 am start time for UCLA.

Virginia hasn't been very good the last couple of years, but there's a lot of positives pointing to the Cavaliers fielding a much more competitive team in 2014. Last year Virginia had 15 starters coming back, but only fielded 9 seniors. This year they are vastly more experienced with 17 starters that is expected to feature 9 seniors and 6 juniors in the starting lineup.

I also think the Cavaliers are going to get a lot more out of the quarterback position than they did in 2013. David Watford played the majority of the snaps last year and threw just 8 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. He's been benched in favor of sophomore Greyson Lambert, who earned the job in spring practices. Virginia also gets back a 1,000 yard rusher in Kevin Parks, who is greatly underrated because of how bad the Cavaliers have been of late.

I don't foresee Virginia doing enough here to pull off the upset, but I do expect them to keep it close at home. This is a lot bigger game for the Cavaliers than it is the Bruins. Virginia has covered 5 of their last 7 games in the month of August and I expect them to add to it with an easy cover in this one. Take the Cavaliers!

4* NCAAF Friday Night No Limit ATS Smash on UTSA +11.5

Don't let Houston's 59-28 win over UTSA last season fool you. That was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. Going into the 4th quarter Houston only had a 31-28 advantage. UTSA fell apart and turned it over 5 times in the final period to allow the Cougars to turn this into a blowout.

That loss couldn't have sat well with the Roadrunners and I look for them to come out extremely motivated for revenge. I don't know if they will have enough to win outright, but I'm confident they will keep it within single digits.

One of things I love about UTSA is they are going to be one of the most experienced teams in the country with 20 returning starters (10 offense, 10 defense). Where I'm expecting the biggest improvements is on the defensive side of the ball. Getting back all those starters who are familiar with Houston's offensive attack and the extra preparation they had for this matchup with it being the first game of the season should allow them to keep the Cougars in check.

UTSA is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Take the Roadrunners!

3* Colorado St/Colorado Oddsmakers Error on Colorado -3

I look for Colorado to cover the 3-point spread and win this one rather easily over their in-state rivals. The Buffaloes won 41-27 last and did so with an impressive 509 to 295 edge in total yards. It just goes to show you the difference of playing in the loaded Pac-12 and a conference like the MWC. Colorado ended up going just 4-8, while Colorado went to a bowl and finished 7-6. I think the books are weighing too much on these two teams overall record and not the talent on the field.

The Buffaloes will be in the 2nd season under head coach Mike McIntyre and despite the loss of star receiver Paul Richardson, big improvements are expected with 16 returning starters. That includes sophomore starting quarterback Sefo Liufau, who started 7 games last year as a true freshman. Liufau completed 59.4% of his attempts for 1,779 yards with 12 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. I look for him to take a big step forward in 2014.

Colorado State on the other hand has to replace the heart and soul of their offense in running back Kapri Bibbs, who easily led the MWC in rushing with 1,741 yards and his 31 rushing touchdowns were tied with Navy's Keenan Reynolds for most in the country.

Replacing that kind of production is almost impossible, especially when you factor in the loss of 4 of 5 starters along the offensive line. Colorado State also loses one of their best defensive players in defensive end Shaquil Barrett, who was third on the team with 80 tackles and their best pass rusher (12.5 sacks).

I look for Colorado to jump on the Rams early and never look back. I have the Buffaloes winning here by at least a touchdown and I wouldn't be surprised if ended up in a blowout. Take Colorado!

4* Thursday Night NCAAF Vegas Insider on Tulsa -6.5

I look for Tulsa to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. The Golden Hurricane are just 1 year removed from an 11-win season and last year's losing record was only their second in the last 9 seasons. Tulsa has 15 returning starters, including 10 of 11 on a defense that is expected to make big strides in 2014.

The fact that Tulane beat Tulsa 14-7 last year has not only provided a favorable line, but it's also going to make sure that the Golden Hurricane take this game seriously. Tulsa actually outgained Tulane in that matchup. The Green Wave are not as talented as they were a year ago. Tulane lost both their leading rusher and receiver on offense and 6 of their top 9 tacklers.

I look for Tulsa to potentially blow this game wide open. Keep in mind that last year's game was played in Tulane. The last time these two teams faced off at H.A. Chapman Stadium the Golden Hurricane routed the Green Wave 45-10 with a ridiculous 474 yard edge in total yards. Take Tulsa!

3* Boise St/Ole Miss NCAAF Main Event on Boise St +

I believe the books are undervaluing Boise State because of the loss of head coach Chris Petersen. The Broncos have 15 returning starters back from last year and there's some continuity with new head coach Bryan Harsin, who served as the offensive coordinator under Petersen for several years before eventually landing as Arkansas State's head coach last season. 

Boise State should see big improvements on both sides of the football. After returning 2 starters in 2012 and 4 starters in 2013, the Broncos have 8 guys back on defense in 2014. They also get back starting quarterback Grant Hedrick and one of the more underrated backs in the country in Jay Ajayi.

This is a big statement game for Boise State, who will be out to show the entire country against an SEC power that last year was a fluke and the loss of Petersen isn't the end of their incredible run. This could also be a tough spot for Ole Miss, as they have their conference opener on deck at Vanderbilt next week.

Boise State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on Thursday. Combined that's a 77% (10-3) system in favor of the Broncos. Take Boise State!