1* Bet on Florida International -10

OVER 50.5

Locking this in early. Illinois has been a defensive mess, ranking 100th in scoring defense and 119th against the pass before changing coordinators. A bye week won't magically fix those personnel problems, and Oregon has the weapons to take advantage. The Illini have also played OVER the total in five of six games, while Oregon is 4-2 to the OVER. Illinois freshman QB Michael Clayton II showed some serious confidence with two TD passes against Michigan State, and Colin Dixon gives him a dangerous downfield target. Both teams have scoring opportunities here, and 50.5 is a manageable number. Ray’s daily FREE plays are meant to be smaller bankroll plays. Money management is everything in this game, and these freebies are designed to keep you moving in the right direction. Today's FREE selection is a strong lean on the OVER. The number makes sense, the spot is right, and it’s a play worth taking. You know what to do. Good luck — Razor Ray.

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Free Play from Doc’s Sports: Take #387 Michigan State Spartans over UCLA Bruins (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 24, CBS)

UCLA has been a pleasant surprise in the Big Ten this season, standing as the only unbeaten team in either the Big Ten or SEC. Still, this is a hefty number to lay with a backup quarterback. The Bruins were one-dimensional against Wisconsin, and I expect Michigan State to make running the football difficult again.

The Spartans are rebuilding under a new coach, but they’ve shown they can compete, taking Illinois and Northwestern down to the wire. I expect another competitive effort here, with Michigan State keeping the final margin within 7–10 points.

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FREE PLAY — SOUTH ALABAMA–MARSHALL UNDER 64.5 — 7:30 ET

One of Tuesday's strongest historical totals systems points toward a lower-scoring game in Huntington, West Virginia.

The system targets teams coming off exceptionally high-scoring performances, identifying situations in which recent offensive production can inflate expectations for the following game.

Historically, qualifying games have finished UNDER at an 86-40-1 rate (68.3% of decisions), producing +42.0 units and a 30.3% ROI when betting the UNDER.

South Alabama enters after consecutive offensive explosions, scoring 52 points against Louisiana-Monroe and 56 against Arkansas State.

The Jaguars possess an outstanding offensive line and three productive running backs in Keenan Phillips, PJ Martin and Trae'von Dunbar. Their ability to control the line of scrimmage could actually benefit an UNDER wager by sustaining long possessions and reducing the number of opportunities for both offenses.

Marshall's offense has also demonstrated a substantial difference between yardage and scoring production. The Thundering Herd have averaged 406.5 yards but only 22 points per game, suggesting problems converting offensive movement into touchdowns.

The quarterback situation adds another consideration. Zion Turner completed 18 of 27 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns following Marshall's six-turnover loss to Coastal Carolina, but the broader offensive evaluation remains unsettled.

An independent scoring projection calls for approximately 60 combined points, compared with the market total of 64.5. That provides additional support for the UNDER.

The market has moved upward from earlier totals around 62.5, creating a better number for UNDER bettors. The strongest historical system and the independent scoring projection both favor the lower-scoring outcome, despite the explosive potential of South Alabama's offense.

Play to: UNDER 64.5.

1* Free Pick on Middle Tennessee State/Florida International over 45 -110

My selection is on the 'under' between Middle Tennessee State and Florida International at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

We missed with the 'under' in Florida International's game against Jacksonville State last week as a fast scoring start ultimately did us in. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however. Middle Tennessee State gained just shy of 7.0 yards per play last time out against Delaware. That was at home against a weaker opponent than it will face here. Prior to that game, the Blue Raiders had been limited to 5.5 yards per play or less in four straight games - only eclipsing that mark previously against an FCS opponent in Murray State. FIU wants to run the football and I expect it to be able to here as a double-digit home favorite. Look for the Panthers to control proceedings and lean on their defense that has held four of six opponents to 4.0 yards per play or less this season. Take the under (8*).

1* Free Pick on Florida International -10

FIU's defense at home is the whole story here, and Middle Tennessee brings nothing on the road to crack it.

The Panthers are allowing 14.67 points a game through 6 games this season.

Over their last 5 that number drops to 13.8.

At home it gets uglier for opponents.

FIU held New Mexico State to 3, Long Island to 3, and Buffalo to 20.

That's 3 home games, 3 wins, and under 9 points allowed per game in Miami.

SP+ backs it up.

FIU's defense ranks 50th nationally, strong territory for a Conference USA team.

Now look at Middle Tennessee away from home this season.

Shut out 55-0 at Kansas.

Held to 13 at Jacksonville State.

Scored 26 in a loss at Marshall.

The Blue Raiders have not won a true road game in the results above, and the offense disappears when it travels.

The common opponent tells you plenty.

FIU went to Jacksonville State and lost 27-24 on the final margin.

Middle Tennessee went to the same building and lost 23-13, never really in it.

MTSU needed home field just to sneak past Delaware 33-30 last week.

That's the ceiling right now.

The only knock on FIU is the offense, 19.67 a game and ranked 119th in SP+.

But they won't need 30 here.

If Middle Tennessee scores like it has on the road, 17 points wins this by double digits.

I like Florida International

1 Dimer on South Alabama vs Marshall under 67 -110

1* Free Play on Middle Tennessee State/Florida International over 45 -110