UPDATED OCTOBER 6, 2026 · THROUGH ALL 16 WEEK 4 GAMES
NFL Power Ratings 2026: Week 5 Rankings & Fair Lines
NFL power ratings below cover all 32 teams after Monday Night Football. These provisional ratings carry forward the published model using every completed Week 4 result. Ratings estimate points above or below an average team on a neutral field. The Week 5 margins are model estimates, not sportsbook odds or Rocky’s official selections.
NFL Power Ratings: All 32 Teams for Week 5
Change compares the new rating with the previous published Week 4 rating. Equal ratings are ordered alphabetically for display; the order does not imply a meaningful difference in strength.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Change | Week 4 score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | +5.9 | +0.7 | 22–17 at Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | +5.6 | +0.1 | 30–27 at Las Vegas Raiders |
| 3 | Los Angeles Rams | +5.4 | +0.5 | 24–20 at Philadelphia Eagles |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | +5.0 | +1.0 | 24–14 vs. Denver Broncos |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | +4.7 | -1.0 | 26–29 vs. New England Patriots |
| 6 | Chicago Bears | +4.7 | +0.4 | 23–12 vs. New York Jets |
| 7 | Seattle Seahawks | +4.3 | +0.1 | 30–23 vs. Los Angeles Chargers |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | +3.9 | -0.4 | 24–18 vs. Tennessee Titans |
| 9 | New England Patriots | +3.7 | +1.0 | 29–26 at Buffalo Bills |
| 10 | Dallas Cowboys | +3.2 | +0.5 | 34–30 at Houston Texans |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | +3.2 | -1.0 | 15–10 vs. Miami Dolphins |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals | +3.0 | -0.7 | 17–22 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 13 | Denver Broncos | +2.6 | -1.0 | 14–24 at San Francisco 49ers |
| 14 | Philadelphia Eagles | +2.2 | -0.5 | 20–24 vs. Los Angeles Rams |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts | +1.2 | +1.5 | 30–13 vs. Washington Commanders |
| 16 | Las Vegas Raiders | +1.2 | -0.1 | 27–30 vs. Kansas City Chiefs |
| 17 | Green Bay Packers | +1.0 | +0.4 | 17–14 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 18 | Detroit Lions | +0.9 | -0.9 | 26–32 at Carolina Panthers |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | +0.4 | -0.5 | 24–27 at Cleveland Browns |
| 20 | Atlanta Falcons | 0.0 | +1.5 | 45–24 at New Orleans Saints |
| 21 | Carolina Panthers | 0.0 | +0.9 | 32–26 vs. Detroit Lions |
| 22 | Houston Texans | 0.0 | -0.5 | 30–34 vs. Dallas Cowboys |
| 23 | Los Angeles Chargers | -0.1 | -0.1 | 23–30 at Seattle Seahawks |
| 24 | New York Giants | -0.8 | +1.2 | 36–24 vs. Arizona Cardinals |
| 25 | Washington Commanders | -0.8 | -1.5 | 13–30 vs. Indianapolis Colts |
| 26 | Cleveland Browns | -1.3 | +0.5 | 27–24 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 27 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.5 | -0.4 | 14–17 vs. Green Bay Packers |
| 28 | New Orleans Saints | -1.8 | -1.5 | 24–45 vs. Atlanta Falcons |
| 29 | New York Jets | -1.9 | -0.4 | 12–23 at Chicago Bears |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | -2.1 | +0.4 | 18–24 at Baltimore Ravens |
| 31 | Arizona Cardinals | -4.3 | -1.2 | 24–36 at New York Giants |
| 32 | Miami Dolphins | -5.7 | +1.0 | 10–15 at Minnesota Vikings |
Biggest NFL Power Ratings Changes
Indianapolis and Atlanta each gain the maximum 1.5 points. Their opponents, Washington and New Orleans, lose 1.5. New England gains 1.0 after outperforming the prior model at Buffalo; Buffalo loses 1.0. San Francisco gains 1.0, while the Giants gain 1.2. These changes measure performance against the prior expectation, rather than rewarding every winner equally.
Week 5 NFL Power Ratings: All 15 Projected Lines
Home-field allowance is two points. Philadelphia–Jacksonville in London is neutral, with no home-field points. Carolina and Kansas City have byes. Margins under one point should be treated as near pick’em. These are score-model baselines before separate personnel, weather and matchup review.
| Date | Matchup | Model fair margin |
|---|---|---|
| Oct. 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys by 6.7 |
| Oct. 11 · London | Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars by 3.7 |
| Oct. 11 | Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals by 6.7 |
| Oct. 11 | Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots | New England Patriots by 4.5 |
| Oct. 11 | Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | Minnesota Vikings by 3.0 |
| Oct. 11 | Cleveland Browns at New York Jets | New York Jets by 1.4 |
| Oct. 11 | Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers by 1.2 |
| Oct. 11 | Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans by 0.1 |
| Oct. 11 | New York Giants at Washington Commanders | Washington Commanders by 2.0 |
| Oct. 11 | Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears by 1.7 |
| Oct. 11 | Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos by 0.7 |
| Oct. 11 | Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | Detroit Lions by 3.2 |
| Oct. 11 | San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks by 1.3 |
| Oct. 11 | Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons | Baltimore Ravens by 1.9 |
| Oct. 12 | Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams by 2.7 |
Quarterback Information to Check Before Betting
Baltimore reported on October 5 that Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury was still being evaluated. His availability can materially change the Atlanta matchup. Chicago announced that Tyson Bagent is expected to start against Green Bay. Washington’s quarterback picture also needs confirmation: Jayden Daniels is returning to practice while Marcus Mariota has a knee injury. A return to practice is not the same as final game clearance.
These developments are flagged without inventing numerical injury adjustments. Check the official NFL injury report, final active lists and confirmed starters. The Baltimore, Chicago and Washington projections deserve particular caution until personnel is settled.
How These NFL Power Ratings Are Calculated
Start with the previous 32 published ratings. Expected home margin equals the home rating minus the away rating plus two points, except at neutral venues. Compare that margin with the actual final-score margin. Move each team by 13% of the difference in opposite directions, limiting either team’s move to 1.5 points. Round each updated rating to one decimal. All Week 4 games use the same entering ratings, so processing order cannot change the outcome.
For example, the previous model expected Buffalo to win by 5.0 points at home. Its actual margin was minus 3.0. The eight-point shortfall produces a 1.04-point downward adjustment, leaving Buffalo at +4.7 after rounding. New England moves to +3.7. This transparent method preserves the earlier ratings instead of replacing them with an unrelated ranking.
Turn Ratings Research Into an Expert Comparison
Before buying a release, compare the best NFL handicappers and the current NFL leaderboard. You can also compare the current Winning Cappers NFL leaders. Review the exact record period, sample size, return on investment and available price. A short winning streak alone does not establish long-term superiority. Ratings help frame a matchup; an expert must still decide whether the current betting number offers value.
More NFL Betting Research
- NFL picks today
- NFL public betting and line movement
- Current free picks
- Current betting odds
- College Football power ratings
NFL Power Ratings FAQ
Are fair lines official picks? No. A selection requires matchup, injury and market review. No premium selection is implied by the table.
Why can a winner fall? A team can win by less than the model expected. Minnesota’s rating declines after its narrow win because the earlier baseline projected a larger margin.
When are ratings updated? After the completed weekly slate. Personnel-sensitive fair lines should be reviewed again before each kickoff. Do not substitute an old Week 4 projection for a current betting line.
Sources: official completed Week 4 results; official Week 5 schedule; Ravens quarterback update; Bears quarterback update. Checked October 6, 2026.
Sports betting involves risk. Provisional model ratings do not reproduce Rocky’s unpublished adjustments and do not guarantee results. Please wager responsibly.