At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (451) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (452). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-2) looks to bounce-back from their 40-25 upset loss at home to Cleveland last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-3) looks to build off their 27-3 victory at home over Cincinnati on Monday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: The Steelers finally earned their first win of the season on Monday — but I expect them to suffer a letdown having to play on a short week. Pittsburgh is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games played after Monday Night Football. And while the Steelers held the listless Bengals to just 175 yards of offense, they are then 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in their last game. At first glance, it looked like quarterback Mason Rudolph had a great game as he completed 24 of 28 passes for 229 yards — but a handful of those completions were forward lateral jet sweep routes that are just glorified run plays. Head coach Mike Tomlin admitted that the offense reached into their bag of gimmicks to provide some spice to their offense. Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh and his staff have now had a week of practice to deal with their wildcat look with Jaylen Samuels under center along with the other tricks they employed against the Bengals. Overall, Pittsburgh passed of 260 yards in that game — but they are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. While the demise of the Steelers was overblown going into Monday with their opponents currently owning a combined 11-1 record, this team still has some significant problems that help account for their 0-3 start. The Pittsburgh offensive line has struggled which has hurt James Connor’s ability to get the ground game going. The lack of a proven true number one wide receiver has also put pressure on the rushing attack — and there has yet to emerge a reliable second wide receiver to complement JuJu Smith-Shuster. And, of course, Rudolph is not nearly the quarterback that the injured Ben Roethlisberger is. Furthermore, the Pittsburgh pass defense had allowed at least 268 passing yards in their three losses before getting to play the Bengals without their top wideout A.J. Green. Baltimore will be feisty to earn a win after dropping their last two games to Kansas City and the Browns last week. The Ravens have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC North rival. And while Cleveland outgained them by 133 net yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games on the road after being outgained by at least 100 net yards. Baltimore needs to play better on defense after allowing 528 and 503 yards of offense in their last two games. The Ravens should tighten up on that side of the field as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at last 450 yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight contests. Both of their last two games finished Over the Total — but Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least two straight Overs. The Ravens have been a good team on the road under Harbaugh — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens usually bring their “A-Game” when facing the Steelers. Baltimore is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against Pittsburgh — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing the Steelers on their Heinz Field. 25* NFL AFC North Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (451) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (469) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (470). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 16-10 loss at home to New England last week as a 7-point underdog. Tennessee (2-2) looks to build off their 24-10 upset win on the road in Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Titans may be due for a letdown after that upset victory last week. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after an upset victory on the road by at least two touchdowns as an underdog. Tennessee got their offense going by generating 415 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. While this offense will get a shot in the arm with the return of left tackle Taylor Lewan after he served his four-game PED suspension, this remains a group that is averaging just 321.5 total YPG. Marcus Mariota is just 30-30 in his sixty career starts — and he has thrown 29 interceptions in those 30 losses which does not speak well when facing elite defenses. The Bills have one of the best secondaries in the business. Tennessee is also due for a visit from the Regression Gods as they have fumbled eight times this season but has only turned the ball over once in those mishaps. The Titans hang their hats on their defense that ranks fourth in the league by allowing just 15.5 PPG. But Tennessee did allow 422 total yards to the Falcons last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans return home for just their second game all season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Tennessee is also just 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Buffalo is 2-0 on the road this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Bills played well against the Patriots last week as they outgained them by +151 net yards while winning the first down battle by a 23 to 11 margin. Surrendering a blocked punt for a touchdown played a role as well as having their quarterback get knocked out with a head injury. The Bills frustrated Tom Brady all day as he completed just 18 of 39 passes for only 150 yards. Buffalo is fifth in the league by allowing 15.7 PPG — and they rank second in the NFL by giving up just 286.7 total YPG. Head coach Sean McDermott has ten starters back from last year’s defense that led the league in total defense. McDermott should have his team ready to play as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss at home where they covered the point spread as the underdog — and the Bills have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 14 points. The good news for Buffalo is that Josh Allen has been cleared from the concussion protocol to be able to play in this game. The Bills have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams has allowed more than 20 points — and, considering that the last three meetings between these two teams have been decided by just one point, a very close game is likely. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Buffalo Bills (469) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (302) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 9-point favorite. Seattle (3-1) comes off a 27-10 win at Arizona on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINT(S): Seattle bounced-back from their loss at home to New Orleans by getting back to their ground game on the road in Arizona. After quarterback Russell Wilson threw 50 passes against the Saints in their 76 offensive plays from scrimmage, head coach Pete Carroll got his team back to almost a 50-50 run/pass ratio with 27 rushing attempts and 28 pass attempts for Wilson. Seattle actually outgained the Saints by a whopping 515 to 265 yardage differential in that game but surrendering a special team's touchdown and a defensive touchdown helped New Orleans seize and maintain the lead in that game. Carroll credits his team's courage to commit to the run last season as the reason why they rallied from an 0-2 start to make the playoffs. While it may be boring, running plays up the middle lull the strong safety into the box which makes him a step behind in providing double coverage in the deep shots they then want Wilson to take. Now the Seahawks return home where they will be very motivated to play better at home this week after their loss to the Saints — and they will also be looking to avenge getting swept by this Rams team last season. In fact, Los Angeles has won their last two visits to Seattle as well as three of their last four games there — so this is a critical game on the Seahawks calendar. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against fellow teams from the NFC. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the month of October. And Seattle has been outstanding when playing on Thursday nights on the Carroll regime as they are 7-0-2 ATS in their last 9 games played for Thursday Night Football. Los Angeles has struggled in these contests as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Thursday Night Football. The Rams are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles is struggling to find themselves on offense after Todd Gurley ran the ball only five times last week despite head coach Sean McVay proclaiming he wanted to get his running back 25 touches. Gurley did not even get his first touch in that game until their fourth possession in the eighteenth offensive play of the game. In fact, Gurley has rushed the ball only 19 times in the first half in the first four games of the season with that mark rising to 30 combined carries in the second half so far this year (with a nice 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry mark). Jared Goff completed 45 of 68 passes in that game for 517 yards — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they generated at least 350 yards. They are also just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The failure to establish Gurley as a viable option has ruined the team’s play-action passing attack from which Goff thrived last season. He has a low 60 Passer Rating on play-action passes this season because defenses are not taking the bait on the potential handoff to the running back. Goff has also not been nearly as effective in the passing game on the road. Los Angeles is averaging 298 passing YPG this season with Goff completing 64.2% of his passes while averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt — but those marks drop to just 219 passing YPG into their two road games this season with Goff completing just 61.7% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 YPA. Additionally, the concerns of this Rams offense has much to do with their reconfigured offensive line after they let two veterans in Robert Safford and John Sullivan go in the offseason to make room for two of their 2018 draft choices in Joseph Noteboom and Brian Allen. This line has taken a few steps back this season with Pro Football Focus rating them as the lowest-graded unit in the league this season. All the passing from Goff also leads to turnovers — he had three interceptions against the Buccaneers after throwing two interceptions the previous week at Cleveland. Goff has six interceptions on the season which has played a direct role in the Rams’ having a -2 and -3 net turnover margin over their last two games. Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after having a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: While the Rams have won six of the last eight meetings between these two teams straight-up, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Seahawks — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 trips to Seattle to face this team. 10* NFL LA Rams-Seattle Fox-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (302) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 9-point favorite. Seattle (3-1) comes off a 27-10 win at Arizona on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Los Angeles defense could not stop Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers offense — they surrendered 464 yards in that game. This team had entered the Week Four having allowed the second-fewest points in the league to the Patriots — and they are still only allowing 330.2 total YPG even after what the Bucs did to them. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Look for head coach Sean McVay to commit to getting running back Todd Gurley involved in this game early. McVay claimed he wanted Gurley to get around 25 touches last week against the Buccaneers — but falling behind early in that game lulled the LA offense into relying on their passing attack. Gurley did not even get his first touch in that game until their fourth possession in the eighteenth offensive play of the game. In fact, Gurley has rushed the ball only 19 times in the first half in the first four games of the season with that mark rising to 30 combined carries in the second half so far this year (with a nice 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry mark). Jared Goff completed 45 of 68 passes in that game for 517 yards — but the Rams only ran the ball 11 times all game for a mere 28 yards. The Rams have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after they attempted at least 50 passes in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Getting Gurley involved earlier in the game will also help Goff sell the play-action pass — he has a low 60 Passer Rating on play-action passes this season because defenses are not taking the bait on the potential handoff to the running back. More running will also help Goff in the passing game where he is not nearly as effective as he is when playing at home. Los Angeles is averaging 298 passing YPG this season with Goff completing 64.2% of his passes while averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt — but those marks drop to just 219 passing YPG into their two road games this season with Goff completing just 61.7% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 YPA. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Seattle rebounded from their upset loss at home to the Saints by being on offense for 33:24 minutes of their game with the Cardinals. The Seahawks will want to continue to control the clock to keep the Rams offense off the field while keeping their defense fresh. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Seahawks have scored at least 27 points in each of their last three games — and they have played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games. Furthermore, Seattle has averaged 6.78 and 6.18 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last two games — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in Weeks 5 through 9.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams will likely look to establish their ground game tonight — and that will burn time off the moving clock. The possibility of thunderstorms may also play a big role in this contest being a battle of the respective rushing attacks. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 encounters in Seattle Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (277). THE SITUATION: THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-3) remained winless this season with their 24-20 loss at San Francisco last Sunday as a 6-point underdog. Cincinnati (0-3) looks to bounce-back from their 21-17 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. 
 
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: In Mike Tomlin, I trust for him to rally his team tonight to earn their first victory of the season. In spite of the Steelers’ disappointing start to the season along with the season-ending injury to Ben Roethlisberger, the fact remains that a win tonight pulls Pittsburgh within one game of first place of the AFC North — and with two divisional games still on tap with Cleveland and Baltimore. This is far from a lost season for this franchise. And while Mason Rudolph was not great last week in completing 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception, this franchise liked him enough to trade away Joshua Dobbs after the preseason. The Steelers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 48 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Steelers need to play better on defense after allowing all three of their opponents to generate at least 425 yards. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. It needs to start up from for the Steelers after they have allowed their last two opponents to rush for 151 and 168 yards. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in two straight games. Hosting this Bengals team may be just what the proverbial doctor ordered. The problems with the Cincy offense starts with their ground game. After managing to average 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry against the Bills last week, they actually raised their YPC mark for the season to just 2.4 YPC which remains dead last in the league. The Bengals running backs are not getting much help at all from their offensive line — they are averaging just 0.3 yards before contact which is also last in the NFL. These limitations in their rushing attack have made Cincinnati one-dimensional. Quarterback Andy Dalton is averaging 43.3 passing attempts per game which is well above his previous season-high of 36.6 passing attempts per game. While the Bengals’ 67 rushing yards last week topped the 59 rushing yards they combined to produce in their first two games combined, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Rudolph should have a better passing game returning home with a start under his belt. Cincinnati ranks 29th in the NFL with an opponent’s Passer Rating of 136.7. The Bengals have yet to force an incompletion when the opposing quarterback is working from a clean pocket — and these quarterbacks are 13.6 Yards-Per-Reception in those situations which is 30th in the NFL. Cincinnati is allowing 407 total YPG this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. The Bengals suffered a -2 net turnover margin last week while falling behind by a 14-0 halftime score to the Bills. Cincinnati has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin — and they have filled to cover the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 62 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 clashes with the Steelers. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on Monday Night Football. In this contest between two desperate teams looking to win their first game of the season, look for the Steelers to earn a decisive win. 10* NFL Cincinnati-Pittsburgh ESPN Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-3) looks to bounce-back from their 21-17 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (0-3) remained winless this season with their 24-20 loss at San Francisco last Sunday as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals fell behind to the Bills by a 14-0 score at halftime while only managing 306 total yards of offense in that game. Cincinnati has then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after trading beat last two touchdowns at halftime in their last game — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The Bengals have also played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after losing a game where they covered the point spread as the underdog. Furthermore, this team has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing three straight games. The problems with the Cincy offense starts with the ground game. After managing to average 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry against the Bills last week, they actually raised their YPC mark for the season to just 2.4 YPC which remains dead last in the league. The Bengals running backs are not getting much help at all from their offensive line — they are averaging just 0.3 yards before contact which is also last in the NFL. These limitations in their rushing attack have made Cincinnati one-dimensional. Quarterback Andy Dalton is averaging 43.3 passing attempts per game which is well above his previous season-high of 36.6 passing attempts per game. The Bengals stay on the road where the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The defense has also been an issue for this team after they allowed Buffalo to generate 416 yards last week. Cincinnati has played 31 of their last 46 road games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Under the Total after giving up at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Pittsburgh has played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Mason Rudolph struggled in his first start for this team after the season-ending injury to Big Ben Roethlisberger. He completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards against the Niners last week. San Francisco was also able to concentrate on slowing down James Connor — the Steelers managed to rush for only 79 yards on 22 carries last week. Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. With the Steelers struggling with their offensive line, head coach Mike Tomlin will need more from his defense that is better than how they have played this season. The addition of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will certainly help. Pittsburgh surrendered 168 rushing yards along with 268 passing yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Moving forward, the Steelers have played 8 straight games Under the Total after playing a non-conference opponent — and they have also played 38 of their last 56 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh Under the Total. Expect a low-scoring game between these two desperate divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (275) and the New Orleans Saints (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-0) looks to continue their winning ways after their 31-6 win over Miami as a 22-point favorite last week. New Orleans (2-1) comes off a 33-27 upset victory at Seattle as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints scored 33 points last week despite only generating 265 yards of offense. New Orleans ranks just 21st in the NFL by averaging 339.7 total Yards-Per-Game this season with Teddy Bridgewater playing in seven of those twelve quarters after the injury to quarterback Drew Brees. The fact is that the Saints’ potent offense has been waning since Week 13 of last season in their 13-10 loss in Dallas to these Cowboys. After a torrid four-week stretch where New Orleans scored 175 points with a minimum of 31 points in each of those games, New Orleans only scored 31 points one more time for the rest of the season through the playoffs — and they averaged just 19.7 PPG over their final seven games. Two of the Saints’ touchdowns last week came from a 53-yard punt return for a touchdown as well as a 53-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. That production obscures the mere 265 yards of offense they generated against the Seattle defense. New Orleans has then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The New Orleans defense has surrendered at least 27 points in all three of their games this season — but they have then played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing at least 25 points in two straight contests. Dallas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Cowboys are allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 336.0 total YPG. And while they have scored at least 31 points in all three of their games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. The Dallas offense has generated at least 474 yards in all three of their games as well — but they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in three straight contests. And in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home, the Cowboys have played 5 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: It was a low scoring game the last time these two teams played last November 29th with just 23 combined points scored. Look for both teams to rely on their ground games and emerging defenses. 10* NFL Dallas-New Orleans NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (275) and the New Orleans Saints (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-0) looks to continue their winning ways after their 31-6 win over Miami as a 22-point favorite last week. New Orleans (2-1) comes off a 33-27 upset victory at Seattle as a 5-point favorite.

THE SITUATION: The Cowboys offense amped up in the second half of last season after they acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper from the Raiders as he offered the team the reliable weapon in the passing game that opened things up for running back Ezekiel Elliott. The elevation of Kellen Moore to offensive coordinator has now opened up the playbook to better take advantage of quarterback Dak Prescott’s talents. Prescott has passed for 920 yards in his first three games with nine touchdown passes. The deeper metrics are bullish on Prescott as well. Prescott is second in the NFL by averaging 9.8 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt. He is completing 74.5% of his passes — and his adjusted completion rate of 81.4% is the best in the league. Dallas has scored at least 31 points in all three of their games and they are second in the NFL in Expected Points Added Per Play. Furthermore, with the weapons Prescott has at his disposal in what is now a diverse offense with added pieces like Tony Pollard, Reggie Cobb and the (thankful) return of tight end Jason Witten from the television booth, the Cowboys lead the NFL in 3rd and 4th Down Success Rates. Needless to say, Jerry Jones team is at its best when their offense is humming. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. Furthermore, the Cowboys have generated at least 474 yards of offense in all three of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 400 yards in three straight games. They should build off the momentum of their easy win over the Dolphins as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Dallas is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The defense has also been quite good for this team as they are allowing only 14.6 PPG along with just 336.0 total YPG. The Cowboys defense has registered 20 hits on the quarterback this season which should start producing more than the five sacks they have tallied this year. Additionally, Dallas has not allowed more than a touchdown in the first half all season — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 7 points in the first half of two straight games. New Orleans may be due for a letdown after their dominant win on the road in Seattle as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. Teddy Bridgewater may have won thirteen of his last nineteen games as a starting quarterback but I think he limits how this Saints offense can operate. He did not attempt a pass of more than 20 yards last week. And with him playing in seven of the team’s twelve quarters this season, New Orleans is just 21st in the league by averaging 339.7 total YPG. But perhaps the more surprising aspect of this Saints team has been the disappointing play of their defense. The Football Outsiders metrics’ ranks New Orleans 28th in the league in Defensive DVOA. They upset the Seahawks last week despite getting outgained by 249 net yards after they surrendered 514 total yards with 450 of those yards coming in the air. New Orleans is 30th in the NFL by allowing 301.7 passing YPG. The Saints have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. Furthermore, while Seattle averaged 6.76 Yards-Per-Play last week, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 home games after allowing at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. The Saints benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown along with a fumble recovered for a touchdown — but special teams and defensive touchdowns are difficult to rely on to overcome massive yardage deficits. This New Orleans team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Will hosting this game in the Superdome make the difference for the Saints? They have failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games at home. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as the favorite. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (274) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (273). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost in Green Bay last Sunday by a 27-16 score as a 7-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-2) comes off a 20-7 upset victory at home to Tennessee as a 1.5-point underdog back on September 19th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: It is surprising that Denver has not won a game considering that they are outgaining their opponents by +28.0 net YPG. The Broncos controlled the clock for 35:34 minutes last week at Lambeau Field and were only outgained by 2 yards in that 11-point loss. In their lone game at home against Chicago this season, Denver dominated the Bears in yardage by a 372 to 273 margin yet still lost by a 16-14 score. As if these results represent enough of an outlier, the Broncos are doing well in the yardage battle despite not registering a single turnover or a single sack in their first three games this season. Considering they have Von Miller and Bradley Chubb who combined for 26.5 sacks last year along with a defensive guru in first-year head coach Vic Fangio, I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods in this game for this Denver defense who is still playing well this year. The Broncos are allowing only 22.3 PPG while limiting their opponents to just 314.0 total YPG without the benefit of a turnover nor sack. On offense, Denver is doing a good job of controlling the line of scrimmage behind their one-two punch in their backfield of Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. The Broncos lead the NFL by averaging 7.61 plays per drive — and this remains a reliable formula for success. Expect Fangio to dial up a game plan to make life very difficult for the Jaguars’ rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. The Titans had a short week to prepare for the former Washington State quarterback last week but the Broncos defensive coaching staff has almost three full games of game tape on him now running the Jacksonville offense with ten days to dissect. Minshew is not mobile — and the Jaguars lack dynamic receivers so do not surprised if the sacks finally start coming in for this Denver defense. Jacksonville upset Tennessee despite being outgained by 38 net yards — they only gained 292 yards of offense with Minshew under center. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after a double-digit victory. And while Jacksonville had a 14-0 halftime lead in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after enjoying a halftime lead of at least two touchdowns. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 2-5-1 ATS. This team is getting outgained by -27.0 net YPG this year. They also are just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Run defense has been an issue for this team as they are allowing 109.3 rushing YPG which is just 16th in the NFL — and opposing rushers are averaging 4.0 Yards-Per-Carry while scoring five times this year. To compound matters, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey has been a distraction all week with his litany of excuses that he has deployed to miss practice. He still wants to be traded and his status for this game is questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville was the desperate team two Thursdays ago — and they won that home game over the Titans. Now it is Denver who needs the victory — and this is a franchise with its first 0-3 start since 1999. Look for this solid Broncos team to finally earn a win by running the football combining with a dominant defensive performance. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (274) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (273). Best of luck for us — Frank (and check out his 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month to close his Sunday card).

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (255) plus the points versus the New York Giants (256). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-3) remained winless this season after their 31-15 loss to Chicago on Monday as a 5-point underdog. New York (1-2) looks to build off their 32-31 upset win in Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDSKINS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington will be playing with desperation having not yet won a game this season. Rumors coming from a Washington Post article suggests that head coach Jay Gruden will be fired immediately after this game if the Skins do not win this game. I do expect a strong effort from this team. Washington has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. I would not sign off on this game without first getting up early today to get the latest updates on the injury report as this team has been a M*A*S*H unit. I don’t love the news about their offensive line — but quarterback Case Keenum has been upgraded to probable with his foot injury along and even  Colt McCoy could be available to play at quarterback in this game as he has been upgraded to probable after suffering that season-ending leg injury last year. Remember, this was a team that was in first place in the NFC East last season before Alex Smith suffered his season-ending injury. And all three of the Skins losses this season have been to teams that made the playoffs last year. While injuries have really hurt this year, the roster is not bad at all. Washington has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. I am not quite ready to put Daniel Jones in the Hall of Fame after last week’s spectacular performance where he completed 23 of 36 passes for 336 yards with two touchdown passes. Jones’ mobility was like mana from heaven for head coach Pat Shurmer — but the Skins will be ready for his willingness to move with his feet this week. Getting Jones down on tape in a real NFL game will help the Washington defense this week (and they have a much better defense than the Buccaneers). Jones will miss star running back Saquon Barkley who will be out for at least a few weeks. That is not good news for a team that is just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point spread win. The defense remains a significant problem for this team after allowing the Bucs to generate 499 yards last week. 355 of those yards came in the air — and New York has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games after allowing at least 350 passing yards. The Giants have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. This New York defense is last in the NFL by allowing 10.5 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and 24.2% of the completed passes they have allowed have been of at least 15 yards which is also the worst mark in the league. Now the Giants return home where they are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC East opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Washington is injured — but so are the Giants with them being without linebackers Alec Ogletree and Tae Davis being downgraded to being out for this game. Expect a close game where the Skins may pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Washington Redskins (255) plus the points versus the New York Giants (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 27-24 upset loss at home to Detroit on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) remained unbeaten on Sunday with their 27-16 win over Denver as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have been hampered by injuries on both sides of the football. They will be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Marlin Jackson, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, and cornerback Ronald Darby for this game. While the team expects to get wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back for this game, the offense will miss Jackson who offers the team the deep threat they need to stretch out the opposing defense. Mike Wallace was supposed to fill this role last season — but his season-ending ankle injury limited their offense last year with the late acquisition of Golden Tate not really working as a remedy. Philadelphia averaged only 22.9 PPG which was just 18th in the NFL. The Eagles were also just 17th in the NFL in Red Zone production after leading the league in that level of production in their Super Bowl year. Philly did lead the NFL by averaging 32:25 minutes in time of possession — and controlling the clock to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field will likely be the plan tonight. The Eagles’ offense last week was slowed down by seven dropped passes. Philly did outgain the Lions by +86 net yards but surrendering a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown ultimately served as the difference in that game. The Eagles defense has been playing well despite the injuries. In their two road games this year, they have allowed 22.0 PPG along with just 329.7 total YPG. They have been particularly stingy against the run as they are allowing only 57 rushing YPG on 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. The 87 rushing yards the Lions generated against them was the most they have allowed all season —but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing ads in their last game. Philadelphia has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Green Bay’s defense has been a pleasant surprise for them so far this season. They are tied for third in the NFL with four interceptions and 12 sacks — and the 11.7 PPG they are allowing this season is tops in the NFC. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. But the offense has remained a work in progress in the marriage between Rodgers and rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Green Bay is scoring only 19.3 PPG while averaging just 286.7 total YPG which is 28th in the league. Perhaps more tellingly, the Packers are converting on just 25% of their 3rd downs which is 29th in the league. Green Bay is running the ball more in this new offensive system — but they gained only 77 rushing yards on 23 carries last week. The Packers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Green Bay has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the NFC.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Green Bay’s Lambeau Field. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Green Bay NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 27-24 upset loss at home to Detroit on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) remained unbeaten on Sunday with their 27-16 win over Denver as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia will be desperate tonight to not fall to 1-3 this season. They have suffered two straight upset losses — both decided by one scoring possession — after they lost to the Falcons in Atlanta the week before for Sunday Night Football by a 24-20 score where they were laying a 1-point favorite. Injuries have battered this team — they will be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Marlin Jackson, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, and cornerback Ronald Darby for this game. Dealing with injuries is not new for head coach Doug Pederson and his coaching staff as the Eagles lost 198.5 adjusted games to injury last season which was the most in the NFL. Yet this Philly roster is one of the deepest in the league — and the quality of their overall roster helped them return to the playoffs last season to avoid becoming the ninth team in the last nineteen seasons to miss the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl the previous season. Philadelphia will be getting wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back for this game which will help after quarterback Carson Wentz saw seven of his passes dropped last week against the Lions. The Eagles dominated the Lions last week by outgaining them by +86 net yards. Philly has been tough with their run defense this season as they have held their three opponents to just 57 rushing YPG on only 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. The Eagles have not allowed more than 86 rushing yards in any of their three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Green Bay benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week in their win over the Broncos — that made up for them only outgaining the Denver by 2 yards. But the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. On the short week, the Eagles have a significant edge with their coaching staff preparing for this game versus the Green Bay rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Defenses have been adjusting to the Packers in the second half as they have only scored 13 of their 58 points this year in the second half. Green Bay has scored 21 and 17 points in the first half of their last two contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games after scoring at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has not yet clicked with the LaFleur’s system as the Packers are scoring only 19.3 PPG while averaging just 286.7 total YPG which is 28th in the league. The Green Bay defense has been a pleasant surprise this season — but they have also had Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco as their opposing quarterbacks. The Packers are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against fellow NFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has won their four Thursday night games with Pederson as their head coach. The Eagles won three of those games outright as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in all 4 of those games. Expect a close game with Philly having the chance to pull out this game even in Lambeau Field. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (490) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (489). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-21 loss at home to Dallas as a 6-point underdog last week. Chicago (1-1) looks to build off their 16-14 win in Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are precarious road favorites when playing more than 4 points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They were outgained by 99 net yards last week against the (winless) Broncos while losing the first down battle by a 27 to 16 margin but still managed to pull out that game. The biggest problem for this team has been with their offense as they have managed only one touchdown. Third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looks like he has taken a step back this season — he is completing only 58.3% of his passes. Perhaps in what is more telling, head coach Matt Nagy does not seem to trust Trubisky to move the ball with his arm given his play-calling in the first two weeks of the season. The Bears are averaging a mere 265.3 total YPG this season — and defenses are quickly adapting to the lack of a vertical passing attack given Nagy’s apparent discomfort in enabling Trubisky to take chances down the field. Trubisky was just 16 of 27 last week for 120 yards — and he only ran the ball once for 8 yards. Chicago’s offense was entirely dependent on their ground game as they rushed the ball 29 times for 153 yards — but they are just 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Of concern was also the Bears defense as they gave up 372 yards including 282 yards in the air which is not a good sign for this team. They are just 19-42-1 ATS in their last 62 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games in the month of September. Washington is a desperate team that needs to put together four straight quarters of good play after blowing leads in two straight games. Look for this team to rally with their most complete effort of the season tonight. The Skins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. They need to play better on defense after allowing 474 total yards with the Cowboys averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Play. Washington has covered the point spread in 8 straight games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Skins are still capable when playing at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games against the Skins. Expect a close game from a Washington team that really needs to get a win. 10* NFL Chicago-Washington ESPN Special with the Washington Redskins (490) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (489). Best of luck for us — Frank. (Follow Frank on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper post regarding what team “identity” means and its connection to have a method for handicapping.)

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-1) looks to build off their 16-14 win in Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Washington (0-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-21 loss at home to Dallas as a 6-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The biggest problem for this team has been with their offense as they have managed only one touchdown. Third-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looks like he has taken a step back this season — he is completing only 58.3% of his passes. Perhaps in what is more telling, head coach Matt Nagy does not seem to trust Trubisky to move the ball with his arm given his play-calling in the first two weeks of the season. The Bears are averaging a mere 265.3 total YPG this season — and defenses are quickly adapting to the lack of a vertical passing attack given Nagy’s apparent discomfort in enabling Trubisky to take chances down the field. Trubisky’s best passing games last year were at home — so expect another conservative game plan from Nagy tonight as Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. This is likely the smart move given the outstanding defense that the Bears possess. Chicago is 4th in the league in total defense while also ranking 6th in rushing defense — and they have registered seven sacks in their first two games. The Bears held the Broncos to only a field goal in the first half last week — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Chicago has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Bears did allow 372 total yards last week as they bent frequently to the Broncos while rarely breaking — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total wit the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Washington has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two straight games. The Skins are ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football. The offense is on their third quarterback with Alex Smith out the year and Colt McCoy out with a leg injury. Case Keenum is solid but not spectacular — but he lacks dynamic weapons with running back Derrius Guice once again on Injured Reserve with a knee injury and tight end Jordan Reed still in the concussion protocol. And this offense really misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues to hold out — his absence has left the Skins’ offensive line a mess. They gained only 255 yards of offense last week against the Cowboys while rushing for only 47 yards. Washington has attempted only 30 rushing plays this season for a mere 75 yards. The Skins have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Washington was outrushed by -166 yards last week — and they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. The Skins have also played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 100 yards. Frankly, Washington needs to play better on the defense. Missing Reuben Foster and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who are both injured hurts — but there is still talent on that side of the ball. The Skins have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be looking to establish their ground game to help put their quarterbacks in better positions to succeed. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (489) and the Washington Redskins (490). Best of luck for us — Frank. (Follow Frank on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper post regarding what team “identity” means and its connection to have a method for handicapping.)

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (487) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (488). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (2-0) looks to build off their 27-9 win over New Orleans last week as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (1-1) comes off a 23-3 win in New York against the Jets on Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Now this team returns home with huge expectations this season given the accumulation of talent they have acquired on both sides of the football. But I worry that this organization has put the cart ahead of the horse when it comes to building a winning culture. With the personalities of Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham (among many) along with a rookie head coach in Freddie Kitchens, it is a volatile mix in Cleveland. They have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Browns are also just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record. And while this Cleveland team has a very good defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This team goes back not he road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games.

FINAL TAKE: Look for this to be a close game before the Rams’ eventually pull away. I don’t like the situation for the Browns — playing this game on a short week from Monday Night with the weight of the world on their shoulders with their thirsty fan base. The Rams have a significant edge in coaching with defensive coordinator Wade Phillips along with head coach Sean McVay battling wits with rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens with his coordinators, Todd Monken and Steve Wilks (who I like — but Phillips is the Dean of defensive coaches in the NFL). With LA also enjoying an experience edge with a host of big games under their belts, look for them to pull out the win. 10* NFL LA Rams-Cleveland NBC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (487) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (2-0) looks to build off their 27-9 win over New Orleans last week as a 2-point favorite. Cleveland (1-1) comes off a 23-3 win in New York against the Jets on Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And despite gaining 375 yards of offense last week, the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield is experiencing some growing pains in this offense executing the passing game. He completed only 19 of 35 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown and an interception last week. He is dropping too far deep in the pocket on too many of his passing attempts. And when he stays in the pocket, he is too often bailout out with his left leg in his follow-through which is impacting is accuracy. Both of these bad habits can be attributed to his concerns about the opposing team’s pass rush. One of the big costs in acquiring wide receiver Odell Beckham was that had to ship off their solid right guard, Kevin Zeitler, to the Giants to complete the deal. Mayfield has been sacked eight times already this season — he has been sacked once in every ten pass plays this season as compared to his being sacked once every twenty pass plays last year. Those are ominous numbers when now facing Aaron Donald and this Rams defense. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is one of the best in the business — expect him to take Beckham away as a deep threat while daring Mayfield to be willing to be patient with his targets underneath. The Browns have a dynamic pass rush as well led by emerging star Myles Garrett who already has registered five sacks this season. Cleveland has held their first two opponents to just 300.5 total YPG. They return home where the Under is 15-6-1 in their last 22 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Browns have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Los Angeles is also playing outstanding defense after limiting the Saints to just 244 total yards last week (while knocking Drew Brees out of that game). The Rams have held their first two opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 293.5 total YPG. They have become a run-heavy team behind Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown who are both averaging over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry this season. But this Rams team is being challenged with their depth on their offensive line with a rash of injuries at that position. Rookie Jamil Demby, a sixth-round pick, may have to make his first professional start at right guard for Austin Blythe who is out with a left ankle. The LA offense is not as dynamic on the road where they scored a nice 28.4 PPG last season but averaged only 387.6 total YPG — and that was -4 PPG below their season average along with over -30 YPG less than their overall average. QB Jared Goff averaged 342.1 passing YPG at home last year — but that number dropped to just 238 passing YPG on the road. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have outstanding defenses. Both of these offenses have dynamic playmakers but are limited a bit given the respective state of their offensive lines. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (487) and the Cleveland Browns (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-2) remained winless this season after their 28-26 upset loss at home to Seattle as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (2-0) comes off a 41-17 blowout victory at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was beating the Seahawks before Big Ben Roethlisberger suffered his season-ending elbow injury in that game. Now this organization is in a desperate situation with their franchise quarterback out and with them winless so far this season with a challenging trip out west on deck against an undefeated team. But the reason why we should have confidence that this football team has not thrown in the towel is that they traded valuable draft picks this week for Dolphins’ cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick who will offer the team an immediate upgrade in their secondary. The Steelers have a 10-6 straight-up record in their last sixteen games played without Roethlisberger — they are essentially a playoff team without him still. This team feels good enough about backup Mason Rudolph running the offense that they traded away their other young backup in Joshua Dobbs after the preseason. Rudolph completed 12 of 19 passes last week against Seattle for 112 yards with two touchdown passes. He will have the benefit of a strong offensive line as well. Look for the Steelers to rally around each other and head coach Mike Tomlin in this moment of adversity — they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games after an upset loss. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in a decisive 62 of their last 103 road games as the underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as the dog. And while Pittsburgh has allowed 61 points this season, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 25 points in their last game. San Francisco returns home after a successful two-game road trip out east with wins in Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. But this team has not enjoyed much of a home-field advantage at Levi Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This is a young team that does not have much of a track record handling success — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games as the favorite. Even without running back Tevin Coleman, the 49ers rushed for 259 yards last week against the Bengals defense — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards. Coleman will still be out this week with his ankle injury — but the bigger concern is with the fibula injury to left tackle Joe Staley that will keep him out for the next six to eight weeks. San Fran also has injuries on their defensive line after allowing the Bengals to pass for 291 yards. The Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is committing too many penalties right now — they are averaging 10 penalties per game which is accounting for 80 Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers may win this game — but this should be a dog fight against a desperate but veteran Steelers team with a winning culture. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (479) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Carolina (0-2) looks to bounce-back from their 20-14 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 6.5-point underdog back on September 12th. Arizona (0-1-1) looks to rebound from their 23-17 loss at Baltimore last Sunday as a 13-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a gut check game for this Carolina team after also losing their opening game of the season at home to the Los Angeles Rams by just a field goal. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two games in a row at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing those two games at home by 7 points or less. Carolina has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 57 games after a point spread loss under head coach Ron Rivera. The team will be without quarterback Cam Newton who is being given time off given a bevy of injuries including his leg and his shoulder. Frankly, the Panthers will likely be better off with Kyle Allen under center since he is at least healthy. Newton is at his most effective when he offers a legitimate running option but his bum ankle has neutralized that part of his game as he only had one rushing attempt last week. Newton’s shoulder injury has negatively impacted his accuracy — and he has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last 178 pass attempts. Look for offensive coordinator Norv Turner to have a nice game plan for his second-year QB in Allen.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-1) looks to build off their 24-20 upset win over Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog last Sunday night. Indianapolis (1-1) comes off a 19-17 upset victory of their own at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Atlanta has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Falcons defense played well to shut down the Eagles offense as they allowed only 286 total yards. Philly managed to gain just 49 rushing yards on 21 carries — and the Under is a decisive 61-26-4 in their last 91 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. QB Matt Ryan passed for 320 yards victory — but they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now Atlanta goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total. Last week’s game finished below the 53 point Total as well — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 17 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the game finished Under the Total 11 times. Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total after an upset victory as an underdog. The Colts held the Titans offense to just 242 total yards including just 119 yards in the air. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. And while that game fell well below the 43.5 point total, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Colts return home for this one where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Indy will want to run the ball to keep the Falcons’ potent offense off the field. They managed only 288 total yards in their victory over the Titans. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon O/U Kickoff with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 24-20 upset loss in Atlanta last Sunday night as a 1-point favorite. Detroit (1-0-1) looks to build off a 13-10 upset victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit should be 2-0 if not for their 4th quarter collapse in Arizona where they allowed rookie quarterback Kyler Murray to rally his team from a 24-6 4th quarter deficit to eke out a tie. The Lions then upset the Chargers playing in an early 1 PM ET kickoff game despite getting outgained by a 424 to 339 yardage margin. Detroit is likely due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a narrow win at home by no more than a field goal. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 29 of their last 43 road games after a win by 6 points or less. Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The biggest issue with this team is their lack of playmakers on both sides of the football. Quarterback Matthew Stafford remains solid if not spectacular and a bit of a disappointment as a former number one pick in the league. He lacks targets in the passing game that demands a double-team. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Detroit’s defense has been built of capable playmakers but none strike fear in an offense. They are just 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents. Philadelphia will be looking to get back their winning ways after laying an egg in Atlanta. The Eagles are dealing with a host of injuries including their top two wide receivers in DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are both likely out for this game and defensive tackle Tim Jernigan out for four to six weeks. But this Philly team has one of the deepest rosters in the NFL — particularly on both lines of scrimmage. Quarterback Carson Wentz still has tight end Zack Ertz as well as a deep cadre of running backs. The Eagles enter this game 2nd in the NFL in 3rd down offense. And while they surrendered 310 passing yards last week to the Falcons, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. Philly did hold the Falcons to just 58 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Eagles have held their first two opponents to just 42 rushing YPG which is third-best in the NFL. Detroit has become a run-first offense under head coach Matt Patricia with Stafford becoming more of a game-manager. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. And don’t underestimate the value of the inside knowledge defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz possesses on Stafford after serving as his first head coach in his tour of duty as the Lions head coach from 2009 to 2013.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Philadelphia. The Eagles would likely be laying at least a touchdown if not for their injuries. While I don’t love the fact that they did not scrimmage in pads on Wednesday, the effect of that is probably overvalued. The Philadelphia depth along with their edges in coaching should lead them to a relatively easy victory. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (302) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (301). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-2) also looks to rebound from a 13-12 loss at Houston on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog. Tennessee (1-1) looks to bounce-back from their 19-17 upset loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: Jacksonville finds themselves in a desperate situation after losing the first two games of their season. This team is seventeen months removed from playing in the AFC Championship Game. The Jaguars took a few steps back last season with a 5-11 mark — but they suffered four net close losses in games decided by one scoring possession. They were only outgained by -9.4 net Yards-Per-Game last season which generally equates with teams finishing with a 7-9 record. A plethora of injuries on offense along with a -12 net turnover margin (tied for 29th in the league) did not help matters. Jacksonville remains an elite defensive team that allowed only 19.8 PPG last year (4th in the NFL) while giving up just 311.4 total YPG (5th in the league). The Jaguars held Deshaun Watson and the prolific Texans passing attack to only 137 passing yards while registering four sacks along the way. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a game where neither team scored nor allowed more than 14 points. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less — and this includes them covering the point spread in three straight games after a loss by a field goal or less on the road. Jacksonville is playing with a backup quarterback Gardner Minshew who was solid last week by completing 23 of 33 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass. While I think the former Washington State quarterback has potential to be successful in the league, expect a heavy dose of running back Leonard Fournette tonight. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to an AFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss at home by 3 points or less. The Titans managed only 242 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Colts despite playing on their home field. Quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 19 of 28 passes which is efficient — but they generated just 154 passing yards. Tennessee seems to have abandoned all hope in even demonstrating a drop-back passing game with Mariota — and that likely means that the whispers to have Ryan Tannehill replace him under center are legitimate since at least the former Dolphins quarterback can matriculate the football down the field. Defenses are already adapting to these tendencies by crowding the box to slow down the horizontal passing game along with the rushing attack led by Derrick Henry. The ineptness of the Titans offense is illustrated by their failures on 3rd down — they have converted only three 3rd down plays in twenty chances this season. These are not encouraging developments for an offense that scored only 19.4 PPG last season (27th in the NFL) while averaging just 312.6 total YPG (25th in the NFL). Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also are just 16-34-3 ATS in their last 53 games again teams with a losing redo. And in their last 5 games against fellow teams from the AFC South, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Jacksonville to play the Jaguars. 10* NFL Tennessee-Jacksonville NFL Network Special with the Jacksonville Jaguars (302) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (1-1) looks to bounce-back from their 19-17 upset loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a 3-point favorite. Jacksonville (0-2) also looks to rebound from a 13-12 loss at Houston on Sunday as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans managed only 242 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Colts despite playing on their home field. Quarterback Marcus Mariota completed 19 of 28 passes which is efficient — but they generated just 154 passing yards. Tennessee seems to have abandoned all hope in even demonstrating a drop-back passing game with Mariota — and that likely means that the whispers to have Ryan Tannehill replace him under center are legitimate since at least the former Dolphins quarterback can matriculate the football down the field. Defenses are already adapting to these tendencies by crowding the box to slow down the horizontal passing game along with the rushing attack led by Derrick Henry. These are not encouraging developments for an offense that scored only 19.4 PPG last season (27th in the NFL) while averaging just 312.6 total YPG (25th in the NFL). Head coach Mike Vrabel is likely to continue to rely on his defense that was 8th in the NFL last year by allowing only 333.4 total YPG while also ranking 3rd in the league by giving up just 18.9 PPG. The Titans limited Indianapolis to only 288 total yards last week. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game against an AFC South rival. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against AFC South foes. And in their last 7 road games when favored by no more than 3 points, Tennessee has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Jaguars have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. And in their last 7 games after a point spread victory, Jacksonville has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville is playing with a backup quarterback Gardner Minshew who was solid last week by completing 23 of 33 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass. But as the regular-season game tape begins to accrue on the rookie quarterback from Washington State, Minshew will experience growing pains. And he is a QB who could certainly use the benefit from a full week of practice given his inexperience at the professional level. He led an offense that managed only 281 yards last week. Now the Jags return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Jacksonville has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Head coach Doug Marrone will also be happy to lean on his defense that allowed only 19.8 PPG last year (4th in the NFL) while giving up just 311.4 total YPG (5th in the league). The Jaguars held Deshaun Watson and the prolific Texans passing attack to only 137 passing yards while registering four sacks — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey has requested for a trade this week — but he looks likely to remain on the roster for at least this game and he should be very motivated to play in front of a nationally televised audience as he auditions for his next team.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Jacksonville last season. These two teams split their two meetings last year with the Jaguars winning by a 9-6 score last September 23rd before the Titans avenged that loss on December 6th with a 30-9 victory. Expect another low scoring game. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (301) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (290) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (289). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to rebound from an upset loss in their 17-16 setback at home to Buffalo where they were laying 2.5-points. Cleveland (0-1) also looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 43-13 upset loss at home to Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Browns entered this season with sky-high expectations after being just two years removed from a winless season. Despite all the talent on the roster, these players simply cannot fiat a culture change without going through the process of learning how to win games. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 46 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss at home. The Browns have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss by at least 10 points as a home favorite. Cleveland was completely undisciplined last week as they committed eighteen penalties that produced another 182 negative yards accompanying a -3 net turnover margin, the Titans were able to put up 43 points on the board. Facing an uninspiring opponent dealing with a bevy of injuries may not be the assignment that scares this overconfident team straight. As it is, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as the favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. And in their last 8 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. The Jets are a hot mess of M*A*S*H Unit right now with a couple of suspensions making this attrition even worse. Quarterback Sam Darnold is out weeks while he loses weight dealing with mono. Wide receiver Quincy Enunwa is on Injured Reserve with a neck issue. Three starters on the offensive line are questionable. Trevor Siemian will be the starting quarterback tonight — and he does have 24 career starts under his belt with his time in Denver. Running back Le’Veon Bell is dealing with a bum shoulder — but he has been upgraded to probable tonight. The defense is also dealing with some tough injuries headlined by linebacker C.J. Mosely and rookie defensive tackle Quinnen Williams out with a groin and an ankle. But I still expect an inspired effort from this group led by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who will be chomping at the bit to have his defense go after the quarterback he served as the interim head with last season. The Jets have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after a loss at home — and they have coved the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by 3 points or less at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a dog getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: This will be an emotional night for the Browns with them facing their ex-interim head coach in Williams — and this is also Odell Beckham’s first return to MetLife Stadium since being traded by the Giants in the offseason. This is also a must-win game for Cleveland with a brutal stretch of games coming up against the Rams, then a trip to Baltimore and San Francisco before hosting Seattle and New England and then a trip to Denver — so a loss tonight puts them in a very precarious situation. I don’t think this team has the maturity to convincingly win a game on the road against another desperate team. Expect a close (and ugly) game. 10* NFL Cleveland-NY Jets ESPN Special with the New York Jets (290) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (289). Best of luck for us — Frank (follow on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper where he looks back to explain why he, fortunately, passed on a tempting CFB situation on Saturday that perhaps looked too good to be true).

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 43-13 upset loss at home to Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (0-1) also looks to rebound from an upset loss in their 17-16 setback at home to Buffalo where they were laying 2.5-points.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets are a hot mess of M*A*S*H Unit right now with a couple of suspensions making this attrition even worse. Quarterback Sam Darnold is out weeks while he loses weight dealing with mono. Wide receiver Quincy Enunwa is on Injured Reserve with a neck issue. Running back Le’Veon Bell is dealing with a bum shoulder. Three starters on the offensive line are questionable. Trevor Siemian will be the starting quarterback tonight — and with check down Charlie in Adam Gase calling the plays, don’t be surprised if the former Denver starting quarterback never throws a pass past the first down marker. Even with Sam Darnold under center last week, the Jets offense managed just 223 yards in their first regular-season under Gase who is the master of 8-yard pickup on 3rd-and-12. The defense is also dealing with some tough injuries headlined by linebacker C.J. Mosely and rookie defensive tackle Quinnen Williams out with a groin and an ankle. But I still expect an inspired effort from this group led by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams who will be chomping at the bit to have his defense go after the quarterback he served as the interim head with last season. Bell has been upgraded to probable so expect the Jets to give a healthy dose to the running back as they look to control the clock and keep the Browns’ offense off the field. New York has played 14 of their last 31 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss to an AFC East rival as a home favorite. The Jets have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of September. Gase’s teams in Miami also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total in September — and they played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss to a divisional rival. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Browns have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss at home by at least three touchdowns. The Cleveland defense did not play bad last week — they allowed only 339 total yards. But with eighteen penalties that produced another 182 negative yards accompanying a -3 net turnover margin, the Titans were able to put up 43 points on the board. The Browns should respond with a strong defensive effort after all that — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. On offense, Mayfield may not be 100% after suffering a thumb injury in that game. Moving forward, the Under is 5-1-1 in Cleveland’s last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: With both of these teams coming off upset losses last week, the Under is supported by an empirical angle that has been 77% effective over the last ten seasons. In games involving a team that suffered an upset loss facing an opponent that comes off a double-digit upset loss, these games then finished Under the Total in 30 of these last 39 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (289) and the New York Jets (290). Best of luck for us — Frank (follow on Twitter @FrankSawyer_HS where today he posts his Monday Morning Handicapper where he looks back to explain why he, fortunately, passed on a tempting CFB situation on Saturday that perhaps looked too good to be true).

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (288) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (287). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 28-12 loss at Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 32-27 win over Washington as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINT(S): Atlanta should respond with a strong effort after getting routed in the first half of that game by a 21-0 score. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after trailing by at least three touchdowns in their last game. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. While putting their rookie right guard, Chris Lindstrom, on Injured Reserve derails some of the plans this team had with their offensive line, the Falcons should get their offense cranking back at home in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Quarterback Matt Ryan oversaw a potent offense last season even with the deficiencies on their offensive line. The Falcons were 6th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 389.1 total YPG — and they have a healthy Devonta Freeman back in their backfield after he missed all but two games. The Falcons were also burdened with the third-worst starting field position in the NFL with their average starting point at their 26.3-yard line. Atlanta averaged 37.97 Yards-Per-Drive which was 4th best in the NFL. Ryan was more effective at home where he completed 72.7% of his passes while averaging 8.82 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and he tossed 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games as a home dog getting up to a field goal. Philadelphia has now failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of September.  The Philly pass defense was torched by Skins’ quarterback Case Keenum who passed for 380 yards against them. This is an area of concern for the Eagles after they ranked 30th in the NFL last season by allowing 269.3 passing YPG. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Those are ominous numbers when facing this Falcons team who were 4th in the NFL last year by averaging 290.8 passing YPG. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games are allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons were ravaged by injuries last year with eight major contributors to the team hitting the Injured Reserve list at one point in the season. With head coach Dan Quinn now on the hot seat in his fifth year in Atlanta, look for this team to play inspired football tonight. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Atlanta NBC-TV Special with the Atlanta Falcons (288) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 32-27 win over Washington as a 10.5-point favorite. Atlanta (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 28-12 loss at Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles where slugging on offense in the first half by scoring only 7 points. Perhaps Carson Wentz and company were rusty after not getting much playing time in the preseason — but they exploded in the second half by scoring 25 points en route to 436 yards of offense against an underrated Washington defense. Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles defense also held the Skins to just 28 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 30 rushing yards. But the Philly pass defense was torched by the mighty Case Keenum who passed for 380 yards against them. This is an area of concern for the Eagles after they ranked 30th in the NFL last season by allowing 269.3 passing YPG. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Those are ominous numbers when facing this Falcons team behind Matt Ryan who was 4th in the NFL last year by averaging 290.8 passing YPG. Philadelphia goes on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have also played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Additionally, the Over is a decisive 13-3-1 in the Eagles’ last 17 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Atlanta has played 32 of their last 48 games Over the Total after a loss on the road by at least two touchdowns. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. While putting their rookie right guard, Chris Lindstrom, on Injured Reserve derails some of the plans this team had with their offensive line, Ryan oversaw a potent offense last season even with the deficiencies on their offensive line. The Falcons were 6th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 389.1 total YPG — and they have a healthy Devonta Freeman back in their backfield after he missed all but two games. The Falcons were also burdened with the third-worst starting field position in the NFL with their average starting point at their 26.3-yard line. Atlanta averaged 37.97 Yards-Per-Drive which was 4th best in the NFL. Ryan was more effective at home where he completed 72.7% of his passes while averaging 8.82 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt — and he tossed 18 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. The Falcons scored a robust 29.6 PPG when playing at home last year.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of September. Atlanta has also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. Expect a higher scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (287) and the Atlanta Falcons (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (283) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (284). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) looks to build off their 30-27 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 1.5-point favorite. New Orleans (1-0) comes off a dramatic last-second 30-28 win over Houston at home as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: The Saints were fortunate to pull out that victory over the Texans — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. And while their offense generated 510 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Despite his 370 passing yards in that game, the ole eyeball test has me worried that quarterback Drew Brees has lost arm strength which diminishes his capacities to throw the long ball — and that allows defenses to creep in a bit closer. Brees has also been a different quarterback when playing on the road versus at home in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. While Brees averaged 321.6 passing YPG last year with an 11.1 Yards-in-the-Air Average and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 21:1, those numbers plummet on the road where he averaged just 217.6 passing YPG with just a 7.0 Yards-in-the-Air average and just 11 touchdown passes. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Jared Goff, on the other hand, gets to play his first game back at home since he led his team to the 26-23 victory in New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game — and he plays much better on his home field. Goff was 7-1 at home last year while averaging 342.1 passing YPG with a 116.7 Passer Rating while passing for 22 touchdowns and just three interceptions. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints will have revenge on their minds for this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against the Rams. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in Los Angeles against the Rams. 20* NFL New Orleans-LA Rams Fox-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (283) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (277). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 21-20 narrow loss at Seattle last week as a 9.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-0) looks to build off their 31-17 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Cincinnati had a moral victory by outplaying the Seahawks in their own stadium as they outgained them by a whopping 429 to 233 yardage margin while holding on to the football for 35:50 minutes of that game. A -2 net turnover margin was what held the Bengals back in that game. Now this team returns home with renewed optimism in the post-Marvin Lewis era under new head coach Zac Taylor. The offensive-minded head coach did a great job to put quarterback Andy Dalton into positions to succeed as he completed 35 of 51 passes for 418 yards which was a career-high. That is a good sign for this team moving forward as they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. Additionally, this team has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bengals defense played well in shutting down the Seahawks ground game — Seattle wants to run the ball to control the Time of Possession yet that rushed for a mere 72 yards. That is another good sign for Cincy as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. San Francisco has stayed out east this week making their base camp in lovely Youngstown. I worry about how younger teams respond to being on the road for two straight weeks. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 50 road games coming off a victory by at least two touchdowns. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Niners are a trendy pick to see a significant improvement in their win-loss record this season — but quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did not have a good training camp and he continued to look rusty coming off knee surgery last week by passing for only 166 yards on 18 of 27 passing against the suspect Buccaneers defense. San Francisco generated only 256 yards of offense — but they scored two touchdown passes from pick-sixes at the hands of Jameis Winston. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have injuries at running back with Tevin Coleman out for San Francisco with an ankle and Joe Mixon questionable with an ankle. Mixon will be a game-time decision as he wants to take the field. The Bengals do have a quality running back still available in Giovani Bernard. Home field should make the difference with a big crowd expected to provide new energy for the Bengals who have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 33-3 loss at New England last Sunday night as a 5.5-point underdog. Seattle (1-0) looks to build off their 21-20 win at home over Cincinnati as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should respond with a strong effort after being embarrassed on national television. The Steelers have won eight of their nine games in the Ben Roethlisberger era straight-up after enduring a loss by at least 20 points. That number does not take into account the point spread — but it does point to the resolve this team should have this afternoon under his leadership. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by at least 21 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. I just think they got caught by a good team with a great defense — and playing in Foxboro did not help matters as that is a place where they have always struggled in the Roethlisberger and head coach Mike Tomlin era. The Steelers have a good defense that should take the next step this season after they drafted linebacker Devin Bush out of Michigan who gives them the speed in the middle of the field that they have lacked since the career-ending injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh allowed the Patriots to generate 465 yards last week with a 7.01 Yards-Per-Play clip — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. There is a concern that JuJu Smith-Shuster does not have the skills to take over the number one receiving job for the departed Antonio Brown. I think he will be fine — especially when Pittsburgh gets their rushing attack going. The Steelers only ran the ball 13 times last week for a meager 32 rushing yards. Look for Pittsburgh to get back to running the football behind their big offensive line — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 50 yards. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the NFC. Seattle faces a situational challenge having to fly to the east coast to play in the 1 PM ET window of games. Head coach Pete Carroll has done a good job of preparing his team for the body clock issues of these early Sunday games out east. However, the Seahawks have been poor starters under Carroll when it comes to meeting point spread expectations in the early part of the season. Seattle is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in the second week of the season. Furthermore, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games in the month of September. They were fortunate to escape last Sunday with a victory considering that they were outgained by a 429 to 233 yardage margin. Cincinnati dominated the Time of Possession — an aspect of the game that Carroll finds very important — as they held the ball for almost 36 minutes of that game. Seattle was able to survive given a +2 net turnover margin — yet they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after enjoying at least a +2 net turnover margin in their last game. It is not a good sign for the Seahawks defense that they allowed Andy Dalton to shred them apart for 418 passing yards with him averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt even without an injured A.J. Green at wide receiver. Dalton had a Passer Rating of 143.9 when targeting Seahawks cornerback Tre Flowers — expect James Washington or Donte Moncrief to have a big game this afternoon depending on who Seattle elects Flowers to cover (I doubt they will have him assigned to Shuster). Seattle is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games gains teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers. Despite their 10-6 record last year, they were a team that did not outgain their opponents in total yardage last year as they averaged 353.3 total YPG while allowing the same number. Look for an angry Pittsburgh team to take out their frustrations against the traveling Seahawks. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to San Francisco on Sunday. Carolina (0-1) comes off a 30-27 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams where they closed as a small +1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay should respond with a strong effort tonight as they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Bucs actually outgained the 49ers last week by 39 net yards by it was a -2 net turnover margin stemming from three interceptions from Jameis Winston that made the difference in that game. San Francisco scored two touchdowns from interceptions in that game. First-year head coach Bruce Arians inherited a team that was probably much better than their 5-11 record suggests. The Buccaneers were ravaged by injuries last season as they lost 109.3 adjusted games to injury including 92.0 games on defense which was the highest in NFL history according to that metric. Turnovers put this team too far in a hole last year as well as their -18 net turnover margin was second-to-last in the league. Tampa Bay had a -3 net close losses in their games decided by one scoring possession — and they outgained their opponents by +32.1 net YPG which typically translates into a 9-7 season. One of Arians' main assignments is to get Winston to reduce his turnovers so that has absolutely been a topic of a few conversations this week. The encouraging aspect of that loss to San Francisco was the improved play of the defense under first-year defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. After ranking 27th in the NFL by allowing 383.4 total YPG, Bowles defense limited the 49ers to only 256 total yards. Arians and Bowles also significantly remodeled this defense with draft picks and free-agent acquisitions headlined by bringing in Ndamukong Suh. The Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Week Two of a new season. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Quarterback Cam Newton was not very impressive in that loss as he completed 25 of 38 passes for just 239 yards with zero touchdown passes and an interception while failing to gain positive rushes with his legs. While head coach Ron Rivera claims Newton is completely healthy, he did injure his leg in the preseason which might be slowing him down now. Furthermore, Newton may not be fully recovered from the shoulder problems from last year which severely limited his effectiveness in the second half of last season — there was talk at one point of the team shutting down their franchise quarterback for the entire season like Indianapolis did with Andrew Luck two years ago. Newton enjoyed a sensational month of October in his first season under offensive coordinator Norv Turner before things went south when the team lost seven of their last eight games with Newton’s arm strength limited with his shoulder injury. But according to the DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders, the Panthers have only ranked in the top-ten in offensive efficiency just once in their last five seasons with their average finish being 16th in the NFL — so this will likely remain a middling offense. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the NFC. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a Thursday night.

FINAL TAKE: The road team has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The underdog has also covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these NFC South rivals. Expect a close game between these two teams. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Carolina NFL Network Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to San Francisco on Sunday. Carolina (0-1) comes off a 30-27 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams where they closed as a small +1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Jameis Winston was not magically transformed in his first game under new head coach Bruce Arians as he completed just 20 of 36 passes for 194 yards while throwing three interceptions in that loss to the 49ers. Arians has had success with some big names quarterbacks in the past — but the growth of Peyton Manning did not demonstrate itself until his second season with Arians while Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer did not see their big bumps in play until their third with the coach. The Buccaneers generated only 295 yards of offense in that game with one of their touchdowns coming from a 15-yard interception return. But the encouraging aspect of that loss to San Francisco was the improved play of the defense under first-year defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. After ranking 27th in the NFL by allowing 383.4 total YPG, Bowles defense limited the 49ers to only 256 total yards. This defense had nowhere to go but up after being at the bottom of the league over the last two seasons — but this group was also hit hard by the injury bug as they lost 92 adjusted games to injury according to the analytics (which was the most in NFL history using that measurement). Arians and Bowles also significantly remodeled this defense with draft picks and free-agent acquisitions headlined by bringing in Ndamukong Suh. The Niners put 31 points up on the board but two of those touchdowns came from two pick-sixes surrendered by Winston (which was clearly a topic of conversation with Arians this week). As it is, Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total suffering an upset loss at home by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Bucs have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Panthers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Quarterback Cam Newton was not very impressive in that loss as he completed 25 of 38 passes for just 239 yards with zero touchdown passes and an interception while failing to gain positive rushes with his legs. While head coach Ron Rivera claims Newton is completely healthy, he did injure his leg in the preseason which might be slowing him down now. Furthermore, Newton may not be fully recovered from the shoulder problems from last year which severely limited his effectiveness in the second half of last season — there was talk at one point of the team shutting down their franchise quarterback for the entire season like Indianapolis did with Andrew Luck two years ago. Newton enjoyed a sensational month of October in his first season under offensive coordinator Norv Turner before things went south when the team lost seven of their last eight games with Newton’s arm strength limited with his shoulder injury. But according to the DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders, the Panthers have only ranked in the top-ten in offensive efficiency just once in their last five seasons with their average finish being 16th in the NFL — so this will likely remain a middling offense. Moving forward, Carolina has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games played in Carolina Under the Total. With the Total set in the high 40s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-0) also looks to better themselves this year after suffering a 6-10 record last season. Oakland (0-0) looks to improve from their 4-12 campaign last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos will bring a very good defense into Oakland tonight under first-year head coach Vic Fangio. The former Chicago defensive coordinator is one of the best defensive minds in the business — and Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay both claim that his coverage schemes are the most difficult to decipher. He inherits a defense with great potential after ranking 13th in the NFL by allowing only 21.8 PPG. Over their last three games, the Broncos held their opponents to just 286 total YPG with rookie Bradley Chubb playing very comfortably next to Von Miller at linebacker. Denver will need their defense to play well given that they scored only 13.0 PPG while averaging just 313.7 total YPG over their last three contests. The offense is also undergoing a system change with first-year offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello installing a run/play-action based attack. But the former 49ers’ quarterback coach’s highest experience of calling plays was at the FCS level so there may be some growing pains early on as he gets comfortable with new quarterback Joe Flacco. The hope of team president John Elway is that Flacco will offer the veteran leadership under center that he once did for this franchise which was then replicated with Peyton Manning leading the team a third Super Bowl championship. But Flacco has seen is adjusted net yards per passing attempt decline in each of his last four seasons which raises concerns that the 34-year old has seen a decline in his skills. His lack of mobility in the pocket is also at odds with where many offenses are moving in the modern NFL. Flacco will be working under a retooled offensive line that is replacing 36 starts from last year’s group. The hope is that offensive line coach Mike Munchak will coach this group up — but there are questions regarding the talent level of this unit with left tackle Garrett Bolles being a disappointment in his first two seasons and second-year center Connor McGovern coming off a disappointing rookie season. A slow start is likely for this team that has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 8 of their last 9 opening weeks to a new season Under the Total. The Under is also 4-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 5 games on the road. Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 opening games to a new season Under the Total. The Raiders also played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as the underdog. The big news for this team is that will not be playing this season with Antonio Brown as their best weapon on offense. Oakland also has issues on their offensive line tonight with both expected starters, Richie Incognito and Gabe Jackson unavailable to play: Jackson is dealing with an MCL injury while Incognito is serving a two-game suspension. That is not good news for an offense that failed to score at least 20 points nine times last year — and they averaged just 15.3 PPG along with 282.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Raiders have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total as an underdog. They also have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Oakland has played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents — and these two teams have played 5 straight meetings Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-0) looks to improve from their 4-12 campaign last season. Denver (0-0) also looks to better themselves this year after suffering a 6-10 record last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: It should be an energetic environment in the Coliseum in what will be the last home opener for these fans before the franchise relocates to Las Vegas. Oakland is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football. This should be an improved football team in the second year under head coach Jon Gruden with groups usually making a big jump in Year Two under new systems. I also expect this group of players to rally around each other to play inspired football in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. It is hard to call his departure to New England to be a big loss since he never really practiced with the team in the preseason. Tyrell Williams was a nice pickup from the Los Angeles Chargers which upgrades the wide receiver corps from last season and tight end Darren Waller looks poised to enjoy a breakout season after a strong training camp. But I expect the gem in this offense to be rookie running back Josh Jacobs who was sensational for Alabama in what was often a reserved role under head coach Nick Saban. Look for Gruden to fully unleash Jacobs now. The Raiders have also covered the point spread in 3 of the last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Denver is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in the month of September. The Broncos should improve under new head coach Vic Fangio who has finally received a chance to be a head coach. Fangio is one of the best defensive coaches in the business but it often takes a year for his players to fully embrace his complex schemes. The offense is also undergoing a system change with first-year offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello installing a run/play-action based attack. But the former 49ers’ quarterback coach’s highest experience of calling plays was at the FCS level so there may be some growing pains early on as he gets comfortable with new quarterback Joe Flacco. The hope of team president John Elway is that Flacco will offer the veteran leadership under center that he once did for this franchise which was then replicated with Peyton Manning leading the team a third Super Bowl championship. But Flacco has seen is adjusted net yards per passing attempt decline in each of his last four seasons which raises concerns that the 34-year old has seen a decline in his skills. His lack of mobility in the pocket is also at odds with where many offenses are moving in the modern NFL. Flacco will be working under a retooled offensive line that is replacing 36 starts from last year’s group. The hope is that offensive line coach Mike Munchak will coach this group up — but there are questions regarding the talent level of this unit with left tackle Garrett Bolles being a disappointment in his first two seasons and second-year center Connor McGovern coming off a disappointing rookie season. These are all troubling issues for a team that failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road. Denver also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC West — and they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 appearances on Monday Night Football. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when not laying more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with Oakland. With the Raiders motivated by the home crowd and to prove themselves with the Brown drama behind them, look for this team to play inspired football tonight. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (480) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (479). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (0-0) enter this season coming off a 13-3 campaign that ended in bitter disappointment with the no-call pass interference in the NFC Championship Game that eventually ended in a 26-23 loss in overtime to deny their opportunity to return to the Super Bowl. Houston (0-0) takes the field again after an 11-5 season that ended with a 21-7 loss at home to Indianapolis in the first round of the AFC playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should be very fired up to get the bad taste out of their (and their fans) mouth from that disastrous finish in the NFC Championship Game. The Saints scored 31.6 PPG at home last year while averaging 391.6 total YPG — and they outscored their opponents by +7.1 PPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when laying 3.5 to 7 points. While it looked like quarterback Drew Brees tired last year as the season went on, he was on fire for the first half of the year as they won ten of their first eleven games. The Saints have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in the first half of the regular season. Yet this is also a team that has lost five straight opening games in a row. After getting upset at home last year to Tampa Bay, this New Orleans team should be very focused to start this season with a decisive victory. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. I like the trades they made in the preseason to bring on Laremy Tunsil and Kenny Stills in the Jadeveon Clowney move — while they might have mortgaged their future, they improved their team this year. However, it might take some time for Tunsil to get completely in-synch with his mates on the offensive line along with quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Texans are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Houston has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games played in a dome.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games played on Monday Night Football. Look for the Saints to win comfortably. 10* NFL Houston-New Orleans ESPN Special with the New Orleans Saints (480) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (479) and the New Orleans Saints (480). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) takes the field again after an 11-5 season that ended with a 21-7 loss at home to Indianapolis in the first round of the AFC playoffs. New Orleans (0-0) enter this season coming off a 13-3 campaign that ended in bitter disappointment with the no-call pass interference in the NFC Championship Game that eventually ended in a 26-23 loss in overtime to deny their opportunity to return to the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints averaged 30.4 PPG last season which is one of the reasons that the Total is set in the 50s for this contest. But New Orleans closed out last season playing 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. Over their last three games, the Saints scored only 19.0 PPG while averaging just 334.7 total YPG. It appeared that quarterback Drew Brees tired as the season moved on. But this is also a team that relied on their ground game to burn time off the clock to keep their defense fresh and off the field. This was a possession-based offense under head coach Sean Payton — and this will likely continue tonight with Deshaun Watson the opposing quarterback. It was not just the home stretch of the season where the Saints’ offense slowed down — they averaged only 19.6 PPG over their last seven contests. Another problem for this offense was that it became apparent that the team lacked a reliable third option after wide receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara. The organization attempted to address that situation with the free-agent signing of tight end Jared Cook after his breakout season with the Raiders. Maybe — but Cook was the beneficiary of an offense that lacked significant threats at wide receiver (which is why Oakland signed Antonio Brown and Tyrel Williams at that position in the offseason). The conventional was once that this New Orleans offense thrived when playing on field turf — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on turf. The Saints have also played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Houston started slowly last season as they scored only 19.7 PPG in their first three games of the season. The Under is 8-3-1 in the Texans’ last 12 games in the month of September under head coach Bill O’Brien — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season. Houston also scored only 19.0 PPG over their final three games last season culminating in their disappointing effort at home against the Colts in the playoffs. The offense suffered a big blow with the injury to running back Lamar Miller. Acquiring Duke Johnson was helpful but his skills are more as a receiver than as a rusher — and the recently added Carlos Hyde has failed to stick with his previous three teams in the league. The Texans will lean on their defense that was tied for 4th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.8 PPG. This defense will still be good despite trading away Jadeveon Clowney as this move will allow the talented Whitney Mercilus to take over his role on the defense next to J.J. Watt.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total as the dog getting 3.5 to 7 points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (479) and the New Orleans Saints (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (478) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (477). THE SITUATION: New England (0-0) lifted the Lombardi Trophy once again last year with their 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh (0-0) looks to get back to the postseason after they were left on the outside looking in after a 9-6-1 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England starts slow in September, right? That was my first reaction when looking at this matchup from afar. But let’s look closer as to how the Patriots have faired in their five previous openers — all at home — after winning the Super Bowl in the previous season. And these are all in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era, of course. In a situation very similar to this one, New England covered the point spread as a 6-point favorite hosting Houston in 2018 (after their comeback victory over Atlanta in the Super Bowl) by a 27-20 score despite the storyline of Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien knowing all the Belichick secret sauce. The Patriots were clocked in 2017 by Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs by a 42-27 score (as an 8-point favorite) after they defeated Seattle in the Super Bowl (when the Seahawks did not continue to feed Marshawn Lynch as the goal line). In 2005, New England beat Oakland by a 30-20 score as a 7.5-point favorite. In 2004, the Patriots beat Indianapolis with Peyton Manning by a 27-24 score laying 3 points. Finally, in 2002, New England upset the Steelers as a 2.5-point underdog in the idyllic days when the conventional wisdom was that the Pats were fortunate to upset the St. Louis Rams behind a young QB that was only drafted in the 6th round. That makes New England 3-1-1 ATS in their previous five home openers when celebrating a Super Bowl win. While that does not make us zombies to take the Patriots in this spot, it should make us take serious pause regarding the “start slow” theory for the defending champs. In fact, New England is 27-22 ATS in their last forty-nine games in the first two weeks of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 40 of their last 58 home games when laying 3.5 to 7 points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when laying no more than a touchdown. Additionally, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Pittsburgh is actually the slower starting team under head coach Mike Tomlin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 opening weeks to a new season. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games in the month of September. The assumption with this team is that the offense will be just fine without Antonio Brown with JuJu Shuster easily becoming the go-to wideout with Donte Moncrief and James Washington all ready to step up. Those are all roles none of these players have proven in the past that they can handle — so, in practice, this might be easier said than done. The Steelers averaged only 20.3 PPG in their last three games last season — and they also only scored 23.5 PPG on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have been the thorn in the side for this Pittsburgh team more often than not. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 meetings with Pittsburgh — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Foxboro to play New England. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-New England NBC-TV Special with the New England Patriots (478) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) and the New England Patriots (478). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-0) looks to get back to the postseason after they were left on the outside looking in after a 9-6-1 campaign last year. New England (0-0) lifted the Lombardi Trophy once again last year with their 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots won the Super Bowl on the strength of their outstanding defense that limited the powerful Rams offense to just 260 total yards. This young unit is only getting better. New England held their last three opponents to only 295.0 total YPG. The Patriots’ defense was also very tough to move the ball against when playing at home in Gillette Stadium where they limited the visitors to only 17.9 PPG along with just 321.2 total YPG. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as the favorite laying 7 or fewer points. But don’t be surprised if the Patriots are not crisp on offense. Tom Brady is adjusting to a new philosophy after the retirement of tight end Rob Gronkowski. It has not been a smooth preseason for Brady in getting comfortable with his wide receivers. Demaryius Thomas has been injured along with rookie first-round draft pick N’Keal Harry. Josh Gordon has been cleared by the NFL to be eligible to play once again in the league but he did not take much part of training camp. And then the team signed Antonio Brown yesterday who will not be eligible to play tonight since the league deadline for rosters this week already passed. As it is, New England uses the first few weeks of the regular season to continue to install their offense — so this will very much be a work in progress. Expect the Patriots to rely on their power running game to keep the Steelers offense off the field (and that will keep the clock moving). New England has played 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Under the Total. Pittsburgh had an underrated defense last season that led the NFL with 52 sacks. The Steelers limited their home hosts to just 22.5 PPG last year along with only 325.0 total YPG — and they held their last three opponents to just 311.3 total YPG. This defense will improve with the addition of rookie first-round draft pick Devin Bush who provides them the ball-hawking linebacker they have lacked since the career-ending injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and this includes them playing 9 straight games on the road Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 16th in Pittsburgh where the Steelers pulled off a 17-10 upset win as a 2.5-point underdog. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) and the New England Patriots (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) enters the new season looking to improve on a 5-11 campaign last year. Dallas (0-0) has Super Bowl expectations after a 10-6 regular season before losing in Los Angeles to the Rams in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs by a 30-22 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys scored 24.4 PPG while averaging 365.2 total YPG last season. Much of those numbers were without the services of wide receiver Amari Cooper who they acquired midseason from the Raiders. The former Alabama star was just what the Dallas offense needed as it provided quarterback Dak Prescott a legitimate target who could still get open against the opposing teams best man-to-man defender. The Cowboys scored 27.3 PPG while averaging 369.0 total YPG in their last three games of the season. Cooper’s presence also forces opposing defenses to not play eight defenders in the box to slow down running back Ezekiel Elliott who is back with the team this week after being given his new contract despite two years remaining on his deal. The initial plan is for Elliott to play 20 to 25 snaps — and he should be effective since it is pretty seamless for running backs to get back into the flow of the offense even without much practice time. Dallas has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home. The Cowboys have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow opponents from the NFC East. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against NFC foes. The Giants offense will center around Saquon Barkley who was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year by rushing for 1307 yards while averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The last time we saw the Cowboys run defense, they allowed the Rams (even with an injured Todd Gurley) to rush for 273 yards on 48 carries for a robust 5.69 Yards-Per-Carry average. While it would be foolish to read too much into preseason numbers, I am not ignoring how efficient the Giants’ offense was in the preseason with all four of their quarterbacks under center in the second year under offensive coordinator Mike Shula. New York led all teams in the preseason with nine touchdowns and 119 total points while averaging 305.5 passing YPG and 393 total YPG. Shula’s schemes were working — I do not expect this offense to suffer from the sluggishness that we saw on Thursday from both the Packers and the Bears after their offensive starters did not play much in the preseason. QB Eli Manning got plenty of reps in August after playing in the first three preseason games. While the hype around rookie Daniel Jones intensified, what has continued to go under the radar is the fine season Manning enjoyed last year where he completed 66% of his passes for 4299 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions in what was one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Golden Tate will not be available in this game given his PED suspension for the first four regular-season games but Sterling Shepard is listed as probable despite his thumb injury — and tight end Evan Engram is poised for a breakout season in his third year in the league. The Giants have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing in Dallas. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) enters the new season looking to improve on a 5-11 campaign last year. Dallas (0-0) has Super Bowl expectations after a 10-6 regular season before losing in Los Angeles to the Rams in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs by a 30-22 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys have the swagger of a team that believes they will pick right up where they left off after losing on the road to the eventual NFC representative in the Super Bowl in the Rams. But teams that treat Week One of the new season as just the carryover of the previous week of last year tend to get bit — Chicago was the latest example of this phenomenon on Thursday night when they were upset at home against a divisional rival in the Packers. As it is, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening weeks to a new season. This is a new that has some kinks to still work out with a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is back with the team this week after being given his new contract despite two years remaining on his deal. But not only will he have some game rust but there has not been much practice time for him to get back into synch with QB Dak Prescott and the rest of this offense. Elliott will likely get 20 to 25 touches in this game. The Cowboys host this contest but they have only failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Dallas defense is a concern as well entering the new season. They entered that playoff game with the Rams having allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.1% of their passes since Week 13 with those QBs averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Pass Attempt along with seven touchdown passes to just one interception. They also had registered just five sacks in their previous five games before failing to sack Jared Goff even once in that loss. The Cowboys run defense then allowed the Rams (even with an injured Todd Gurley) to rush for 273 yards on 48 carries for a robust 5.69 Yards-Per-Carry average. Here comes Saquon Barkley who was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year by rushing for 1307 yards while averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. While it would be foolish to read too much into preseason numbers, I am not ignoring how efficient the Giants’ offense was in the preseason with all four of their quarterbacks under center in the second year under offensive coordinator Mike Shula. New York led all teams in the preseason with nine touchdowns and 119 total points while averaging 305.5 passing YPG and 393 total YPG. Shula’s schemes were working — I do not expect this offense to suffer from the sluggishness that we saw on Thursday from both the Packers and the Bears after their offensive starters did not play much in the preseason. QB Eli Manning got plenty of reps in August after playing in the first three preseason games. While the hype around rookie Daniel Jones intensified, what has continued to go under the radar is the fine season Manning enjoyed last year where he completed 66% of his passes for 4299 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions in what was one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Golden Tate will not be available in this game given his PED suspension for the first four regular-season games but Sterling Shepard is listed as probable despite his thumb injury — and tight end Evan Engram is poised for a breakout season in his third year in the league. The defense should be much improved with the additions of Jabrill Peppers (in the Odell Beckham trade) along with the drafting of Clemson’s massive defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and Georgia cover cornerback Deandre Baker in the first round of the NFL draft. New York has covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: New York has certainly had this opening game circled after getting swept by the Cowboys last year. The Giants played in twelve games last year decided by one scoring possession — and they lost eight of those contests for a -4 net close loss number. They should be very competitive in this contest (and don’t be shocked if they follow Green Bay’s lead and pull off the road upset against a divisional rival coming off a playoff run — but still take the points for some insurance). 25* NFL NFC East Game of the Month with the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (455) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (456). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) looks to improve their 7-9 record from last season where they missed the playoffs. Philadelphia (0-0) comes off a 9-7 season where they lost in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs in a 20-14 loss in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDSKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles are a trendy pick to return to the Super Bowl with quarterback Carson Wentz healthy again at quarterback. But after playing much in the preseason, Wentz made still be a bit rusty for this opening game after not playing in last year’s playoffs because of injury. Timing is important when executing Run-Pass Option plays so the lack of repetitions in the preseason exhibition games where the conditions more closely approximate the regular-season atmosphere (as compared to inter-team scrimmages which remain controlled environments). Philadelphia was 5-3 at home last year but they only outscored their eight guests by +2.1 PPG — so asking them to cover a point spread of more than a touchdown against a division rival is asking a lot of this team. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of September. Washington is an ugly dog opening the season after the highly publicized holdout of their left tackle Trent Williams that remains unresolved. The Skins are also without one of their best-receiving targets in tight end Jordan Reed who is still in the concussion protocol. And the new Washington quarterback is Case Keenum who no one gets excited about. But the Skins have running back Derrius Guice healthy again who looked poised for an outstanding season before suffering a season-ending leg injury last year. Washington also has a very underrated with Alabama alumni Da’Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen up front and Josh Norman still patrolling the secondary. The Skins held their home hosts to only 20.2 PPG last year which helped them be dangerous road warriors where they won four of their games. This unit should be improved with the addition of first-round draft pick in defensive end Montez Sweat from Mississippi State and strong safety Landon Collins from the Giants via free agency. Washington has covered the point spread in 3 straight games on the road getting 7.5 to 14 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 games in the month of September, the Skins have covered the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: Washington certainly had this game circled in the offseason after being swept by the Eagles in their two regular-season games by 28-13 and then 24-0 scores. That shutout loss at home on December 30th really stung — look for the Skins to be a very tough out for Philly this afternoon. 10* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Washington Redskins (455) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (451) and the Chicago Bears (452). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) looks to improve on a disappointing 6-9-1 campaign last year. Chicago (0-0) enters the new season looking to build off their 12-5 season that culminated in their heartbreaking 16-15 loss in the NFC Wildcard playoff game at home in Soldier Field against Philadelphia where a missed field goal that hit the uprights cost them the victory.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It may be surprising to some that the oddsmakers have installed the Over/Under for this game to begin at 46 (or higher) in most locations. The Bears only had three games all of last season where the Total was set at 46 or higher. Chicago led the NFL last year by allowing just 17.7 PPG. The DVOA metric used by Football Outsiders to measure defensive efficiency ranks that Bears’ defense last season as one of the ten best ever since 1998. And while there are good reasons to be bullish on the defense again this year with Khalil Mack taking part in a full offseason, negative regression remains highly likely. Historically dominant defenses more often than not find it difficult to maintain that uber-elite level of play. Chicago ended opposing drives with an interception in 14.8% of their drives which was not only the best mark in the NFL but the highest mark in the last four seasons. This defense is simply not likely to kill as many drives with interceptions this year. This defense suffered four big losses in the offseason. The first two were with their coaching staff with defensive coordinator Vic Fangio taking the head coaching job in Denver with him taking defensive backs coach Ed Donatell with him. Donatell is an outstanding skills development coach. Sean McVay considers the Fangio defenses the most difficult to scheme against given the sophisticated ways he disguises his coverages. Remember, Fangio was the defensive architect for those outstanding 49ers defenses in the Jim Harbaugh era. Chuck Pagano takes over as defensive coordinator — and while he had good defenses in his tenure as the coordinator in Baltimore, only one of his six defenses in his tenure at Indianapolis ranked in the top half of the NFL. Chicago also lost two good players in their secondary in strong safety Adrian Ames and nickel back Bryce Callahan. Ames was the best tackler in their secondary while Callahan provided elite slot coverage skills. Replacements Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Buster Skrine are serviceable but still downgrades in talent. On offense, second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky did his best work at home where he led an offense that scored 26.7 PPG while averaging 365.7 YPG which was over +20 net YPG above their season average. Trubisky enjoyed an encouraging sophomore campaign in the league where he made significant strides after a shaky rookie campaign under NFL Coach of the Year Matt Nagy. Over his last four regular-season games, Trubisky averaged a nice Passer Rating of 102.4. He should have success against this Packers defense that Football Outsiders ranked as fourth-worst in the NFL last year with their metrics. This unit did add Ames from the Bears via free agency to bolster their secondary — but this group has also seen attrition with them cutting veteran defensive lineman Mike Daniels and then losing starting linebacker Oren Burks to a pectoral injury. Green Bay drafted Rashan Gary as the 13th pick in the first round of the NFL draft — but he struggled in training camp while adapting to a new position at outside linebacker which is a strange way to deploy a player who was at best at Michigan when playing defensive tackle. The Packers allowed their home hosts to score 29.4 PPG last year while averaging 374 total YPG. But the Green Bay offense should see significant improvement in an updated offense of rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Rodgers has a down year last season while clearly fed up with previous head coach Mike McCarthy. But don’t underestimate the negative impact of the knee injury he sustained early in the season. With a chip on his shoulder in the aftermath of the McCarthy dismissal, Rodgers looked poised for a big bounce-back season. The Packers averaged 383 YPG on the road last year which was over 10 YPG more than what they averaged at home in Lambeau Field. Green Bay has played a decisive 37 of their last 55 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Packers have also played 5 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog getting no more than 3 points. Additionally, Green Bay has played 11 of their last 14 games over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Packers have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total in the month of September — and this included them playing seven of their last 8 opening weeks to a new season Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Despite being slowed with that bum knee last year, Rodgers was careful with the football as he only threw two interceptions. His sound decision making helps explain why these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Chicago Over the Total. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (451) and the Chicago Bears (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (452) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (451). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) enters the new season looking to build off their 12-5 season that culminated in their heartbreaking 16-15 loss in the NFC Wildcard playoff game at home in Soldier Field against Philadelphia where a missed field goal that hit the uprights cost them the victory. Green Bay (0-0) looks to improve on a disappointing 6-9-1 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: There are a host of reasons why Chicago will have a worse record this season despite possibly being a better team overall. For starters, the Bears lost the second-fewest number of starters games to injuries last season which will be difficult for them to sustain. But this is a healthy team now that has been anxious to get back to Soldier Field to redeem themselves from that devastating playoff loss to the Eagles. Chicago was outstanding at home last year where they finished 7-2 with an average winning margin of +10.4 PPG. The Bears outgained their visitors by +78.5 net YPG as well given the strength of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky’s better play at home at Soldier Field. Chicago averaged 26.7 PPG at home while generating 365.7 total YPG. The Bears are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games as the favorite. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Bears will once again have an outstanding defense led by Khalil Mack — they led the NFL by allowing only 17.7 PPG. And while they also allowed 299.7 total YPG (3rd in the NFL), that number dropped to 287.2 total YPG when playing at home. Furthermore, Chicago typically plays very well against fellow NFC North foes as they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against divisional foes. Green Bay hopes to bounce-back from a 6-9-1 season — but this may be a team moving in the wrong direction considering that they are just 13-18-1 over the last two seasons. They only defeated one team with a winning record last year. Matt LaFleur will be making his debut as an NFL head coach in this game despite overseeing an offense in Tennessee last year that ranked just 25th in the league. But the offense looks in far better shape than the Packers defense that Football Outsiders ranked as fourth-worst in the NFL last year with their metrics. This unit did add Ames from the Bears via free agency to bolster their secondary — but this group has also seen attrition with them cutting veteran defensive lineman Mike Daniels and then losing starting linebacker Oren Burks to a pectoral injury. Green Bay drafted Rashan Gary as the 13th pick in the first round of the NFL draft — but he struggled in training camp while adapting to a new position at outside linebacker which is a strange way to deploy a player who was at best at Michigan when playing defensive tackle. The Packers allowed their home hosts to score 29.4 PPG last year while averaging 374 total YPG. Green Bay is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two meetings last year with Green Bay winning their first meeting in September by a 24-23 score before the Bears avenged that loss in December back at Soldier Field with their 24-17 victory as a 5.5-point favorite. The Packers have been overvalued in these divisional rivalries as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 meetings with an NFC North opponents — including failing to cover the point spread in their last four divisional games. 10* NFL Green Bay-Chicago NBC-TV Special with the Chicago Bears (452) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (13-5) has reached the Super Bowl for the third straight year along with fourth time in the last five seasons with their 37-31 win in overtime at Kansas City as a 3-point underdog. Los Angeles (15-3) earned the right to play them with their 26-23 upset win in overtime in New Orleans as a 3-point underdog. Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will host Super Bowl LIII.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: In theory, these are two teams that like to run the ball first to establish their passing game. Both these teams have two of the best offensive lines in the NFL. New England lacks a dynamic deep threat after they lost the services of wide receiver Josh Gordon. Los Angeles has evolved into a power run team with the addition of C.J. Anderson to complement running back Todd Gurley. Yet even if this is a low scoring game early on, I expect the final score to reach the Over. In part, because this game shapes up to be very competitive, the closeness of the game should push the scoring up. And as things get more desperate as the game gets into the 4th quarter, both teams’ passing games should take over. We certainly got burned in the AFC Championship Game with New England going into the 4th quarter with a 17-7 score before 38 combined points were scored to ruin our Under play. The Patriots scored 31 points in regulation away from the Meadowlands in less cold weather while reaching 524 total yards of offense after their overtime touchdown drive. Offensive proficiency like that from Tom Brady typically is a sign that New England should be able to keep their offense clicking on all cylinders. The Patriots have played 53 of their last 79 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 34 of their last 52 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 40 of their last 61 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Patriots also lit up the good Chargers defense for 41 points in their 13-point win in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points in two straight contests. The extra week of preparation should help Brady and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels scheme for the Rams defense as they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with two weeks of preparation. Additionally, the Patriots have played 7 of their last 8 games in the playoffs Over the Total. This Super Bowl will feature two defenses that are middle of the pack — the metrics from Football Outsiders ranks New England 16th in the league in defensive DVOA while the Rams rank 19th in that metric. The Patriots allowed 24.8 PPG when playing away from home this season while Los Angeles gives up 24.0 PPG overall for the year. The Rams should dial up a great offensive game plan to take advantage of the Patriots defense that could not stop the Chiefs in the 4th quarter. Los Angeles has played 18 of their last 29 games Over the Total when playing with two weeks of rest and preparation. The Rams got sensational play from Jared Goff in the second-half of their victory over the Saints. Goff completed 25 of 40 passes for 297 yards after leading his team to their game-winning field goal in overtime. Los Angeles has then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. And while the Rams have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the high-50s for this Super Bowl — but that is warranted given the ideal conditions in the dome stadium and the high level of proficiency from both these offenses. Expect a high-scoring game. 25* NFL Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. For those interested in Super Bowl Props, I will have my Betting Card for a Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet (offering the best value relative to the odds), and my top Long Shot Bet by Saturday (2/2) with it being attached as a Free Bonus to a Saturday (and Sunday) College Basketball play).

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (13-5) has reached the Super Bowl for the third straight year along with fourth time in the last five seasons with their 37-31 win in overtime at Kansas City as a 3-point underdog. Los Angeles (15-3) earned the right to play them with their 26-23 upset win in overtime in New Orleans as a 3-point underdog. Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will host Super Bowl LIII.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS POINTS: The Rams were one of the top two betting favorites to win the Super Bowl before the season started but I always considered them overrated. Playoff wins over a Cowboys team that finished 3-6 on the road while scoring 17.4 PPG in those contests and then the controversial way they won in New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game did little to change this initial opinion. The travesty non-call on wide receiver Tommylee Lewis likely cost the Saints the game — and that call obscured another bad non-call penalty interference on Ted Ginn on the previous drive that probably sets up another New Orleans scoring drive. Admittedly, the officials missed a face mask call on Jared Goff in their game-tying drive that ended in a field goal — but the terrible officiating did more to keep the Rams in the game, all things considered. This represents the signature victory for Los Angeles this season — yet it lacks any definitive statement moving forward given the shaky circumstances from which they escaped with the win. The Rams defeated a still-improving Chargers team earlier in the season before beating Kansas City at home who proved to be a team that simply could not stop any quality offense. I had concerns over whether the Rams’ collections of free agent splurges could come together to form a cohesive unit given the history of Dan Snyder’s teams in Washington and the so-called “dream team” of the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles. I have never loved the collection of egos that were assembled with this team — and the two weeks of Super Bowl hype is not the best way for hired guns to mentally prepare for a game of this magnitude. And given that this franchise is facing a salary cap crunch in the offseason, there is tremendous pressure on this team to take advantage of this moment. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Patriots have a substantial advantage at quarterback given the experience of Tom Brady versus a Jared Goff playing in just his fourth playoff game. Goff was exposed late in the season when made uncomfortable against the Bears and Eagles in a game plan that Bill Belichick will have completely mastered. While Goff made some great plays in the second-half against the Saints, this is still a quarterback who did not play nearly as well on the road and who clearly missed his security blanket in wide receiver Cooper Kupp who suffered a season-ending injury midseason. The weakness of the Rams’ defense has always been their linebackers after they traded Robert Quinn and Alec Ogletree in the offseason to clear cap room space. That left that group thin on the edge which has been compounded by the decline of inside linebacker Mark Barron whose past Achilles’ injury has seen his speed and athleticism dwindle to subpar levels. Los Angeles is second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt from play-action passes. Brady is going to pick apart this Rams’ defense in the middle of the field with his assortment of weapons that feasts on mismatches like this. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has been stubborn with his cornerback positioning by keeping Talib Aqib on the left side of the field which allowed opponents to exploit Marcus Peters. LA ranked 2nd in the NFL in pass defense on Aqib’s side of the field when he was healthy while ranking 24th in the league on Peters’ left side — and these vulnerabilities are exactly the things that Brady will have a field day exploiting. This is an opportunity for New England to redeem themselves from last year’s loss in the Super Bowl. While the final score indicated that the Eagles won by 8 points, remember that the Patriots had a 33-32 lead with under 3 minutes to go before letting that game slip away. Brady was sensational in that game against a defense better than this Rams’ unit — he completed 28 of 48 passes for 505 yards with three touchdowns all without the services of the injured Julian Edelman. Brady’s offensive support is better this time around with a healthy Edelman and an improved offensive line. Brady was not sacked in 90 passing attempts in this year’s playoffs. And don’t underestimate the positive impact of rookie running back Sony Michel who has given the Patriots their most talented running back in years. Finally, I just find the playoff experience that this New England team enjoys to offer this franchise a decisive edge. This is Brady and Belichick’s ninth Super Bowl appearance in eighteen seasons. Belichick’s assistants have been with him for years as well: offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been with New England for fifteen of Belichick’s nineteen seasons there; offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia has been with them for seventeen of Belichick’s nineteen seasons; running backs coach Ivan Fears has been there for all nineteen seasons. From the two weeks of preparation and planning for the Super Bowl to the management of the game, the Patriots simply have a huge edge. While Sean McVay is the wunderkind of the league now, his reputation was saved by the bad non-call late in the game against the Saints that pushed to the background his bad decision to not go for the touchdown earlier in the 4th quarter when he elected to kick a tying field goal. Rams’ backers for this game mention things like the “value” they offer as a small underdog. I think those are sentiments that are rationalizing hype from the preseason. Let’s also remember that New England has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record while also covering the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams opened as a 1.5-point favorite but were quickly bet down to a 1-point underdog to the Patriots. Since that time, New England has been bet up to 2.5 to 3-point favorites as of a week before the game. This line movement is consistent with how I initially handicapped this matchup. I did consider a contrarian angle regarding the Rams being pushed by the commentary that New Orleans was robbed by the referees but I quickly dismissed it. I don’t think the Rams need any more bulletin board material for them to get motivated to win a championship. Besides, the referee's storyline from last week will be old news by kick off for this game. The Patriots traveled to Arrowhead Stadium and outgained Kansas City by a decisive 524 to 290 margin. With the edges in coaching, quarterback, and playoff experience (after losing last year’s Super Bowl that I saw as basically a coin flip or two away from them winning), New England is the strong play. 25* NFL Super Bowl A-List Special with the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. For those interested in Super Bowl Props, I will have my Betting Card for a Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet (offering the best value relative to the odds), and my top Long Shot Bet by Saturday (2/2) with it attached as a Free Bonus to a Saturday (and Sunday) College Basketball play.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-4) has won their last two games after their 31-13 win over Indianapolis last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. New England (12-5) reached the AFC Championship Game last Sunday with their 41-28 win at home over the LA Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite.  This is a rematch of the Patriots’ 43-40 win against the Chiefs in Foxboro back on October 14th as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I would have raced to make a call on this game earlier in the week, I might have endorsed the Patriots. With the weather projections being of an Arctic Blast that would see wind chill temperatures well below zero degrees, I needed to strongly consider that Tom Brady’s experience with below-freezing weather could be overwhelming for Patrick Mahomes and the high-precision Kansas City offense to overcome. But the 48-hour projection is for highs to be in the low-30s with game-time temperatures expected to stay in the 20s. It will be difficult for the Patriots to come close to replicate the near-perfect game they played against the Chargers last Sunday. It certainly helped that Los Angeles was traveling east for the second straight week to play in an earlier 1 PM ET kickoff with that being their third straight game on the road. The Chargers only flew in the day before — so their travel management did themselves no favors to get ready for that showdown. But now the Patriots go on the road where they have not won a playoff game since 2007. New England was a perfect 9-0 at home this season where they scored 33.8 PPG — but the Patriots were just 3-5 on the road with an average losing margin of -2.4 PPG. New England only scores 21.6 PPG while allowing their home hosts to average 399.0 total YPG The DVOA defensive ranking by the analytics folks at Football Outsiders ranks the Patriots as the second worst defensive unit on the road this season. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 opportunities to play in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Chiefs have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two straight contests. Mahomes was more than capable playing in temperatures in the 20s against the Colts by completing 27 of 41 passes for 278 yards while leading the offense to 433 yards (which was above their league-leading yardage average). Kansas City is now 8-1 at home with an average winning margin of +14.8 PPG. The Chiefs have scored at least 26 points in every game this season — but it is the play of their defense that home has them so tough to beat in Arrowhead Stadium. While KC allows 34.3 PPG on the road, that number plummets to just 17.4 PPG at home which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. The noise of the home crowd certainly helps to disrupt opposing offenses snap counts and the ability of opposing quarterbacks to call audibles at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs’ pass rush thrives at home as well — they lead the NFL with 34 sacks at home and a pressure rate of 36.9% as compared to their 25.9% pressure rate on quarterbacks on the road which ranks only 26th in the league. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: While the Chiefs defense plays much better when playing at home when they are bolstered by the crowd noise, Kansas City’s formula for success still requires their offense to outperform what Brady can do with the Patriots’ offense. While the cold is not ideal for Mahomes, the prospect of temperatures below 10 degrees would have been a much more difficult challenge. This year’s Patriots’ team has not been nearly as good when playing away from Foxboro. 25* NFL Sunday Night Special Feature with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: New England (12-5) reached the AFC Championship Game last Sunday with their 41-28 win at home over the LA Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite. Kansas City (13-4) has won their last two games after their 31-13 win over Indianapolis last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Patriots’ 43-40 win against the Chiefs in Foxboro back on October 14th as a 3.5-point favorite. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While an Arctic blast will not be hitting Arrowhead Stadium for this game, the temperature will still be in the 20s during this game to produce less than ideal conditions for both offenses. It is telling this is the highest over/under number for a game with the temperatures expected to be below 30 degrees since the Patriots played the Packers at Lambeau Field back on 2014 which New England lost by a 26-21 score. It would be foolish to take the Under only because that Under came through — but that comparison does underscore that the number is unseasonably high despite these weather conditions. This rematch is unlikely to approach the 83 combined points that were scored in Foxboro. The Patriots scored just under 10 points more than their season average at home in Foxboro for that game — but they see their scoring drop to just 21.6 PPG on the road. They have only scored 28 or more points once away from home this year. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road while also playing 14 of their last 19 road games Under the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. New England’s lack of a vertical threat on offense after the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon will make moving the ball much more difficult this time around. They ate up a KC defense in that first meeting that allows 34.3 PPG on the road — but that number plummets to just 17.4 PPG at home which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. The noise of the Arrowhead home crowd certainly helps to disrupt opposing offenses snap counts and the ability of opposing quarterbacks to call audibles at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs’ pass rush thrives at home as well — they lead the NFL with 34 sacks at home and a pressure rate of 36.9% as compared to their 25.9% pressure rate on quarterbacks on the road which ranks only 26th in the league. Kansas City has played 19 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Chiefs have also played 4 straight playoff games Under the Total in the playoffs. Kansas City has scored at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. Don’t underestimate what Belichick will be able to do to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ defense in this rematch — and his experience coaching games in cold weather will likely make the challenge on the young quarterback even more difficult. Mahomes was tearing up the league by averaging 9.34 Yards-Per-Attempt in the first eleven weeks of the season — but defenses have caught up a bit since he has seen that number drop to 7.6 YPA in his last six starts.

FINAL TAKE: While 83 combined points were scored between these two teams in their first meeting, this rematch should seem far fewer points this time around. 25* AFC Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (14-3) has won three straight games with their 30-22 win over Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. New Orleans (14-3) reached the NFC Conference Championship Game with their 20-14 win over Philadelphia last Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Saints’ 45-35 win in New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog back on November 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles ran the ball 48 times for 273 yards in their win over the Cowboys which allowed them to control the Time of Possession for 36:13 minutes of that game. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Since Jared Goff suffered disappointing games against Chicago and Philadelphia, head coach Sean McVay has transitioned the offense into a run-oriented team. In their last four games, Los Angeles has run the ball in 131 of their 212 offensive plays for a 61.7% of their plays some scrimmage. It is likely that McVay will want to continue this commitment to running the football. Rushing the football also allows them to take full advantage of their offensive line that might be the best in the NFL. The late-season acquisition of running back C.J. Anderson has given them a power back that is a nice complement to Todd Gurley. Controlling the Time of Possession can help keep the New Orleans crowd out of the game while keeping Drew Brees off the field. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Los Angeles has held their eight home opponents to just 19.9 PPG along with only 338.4 total YPG. The Rams defense has been even better since the return of cornerback Aqib Talib. While LA was allowing 30.8 PPG while surrendering 272.6 passing YPG in the games they have played this season without an injured Talib on the field, those numbers improved significantly to them allowing just 17.8 PPG along with only 206.3 passing YPG with Talib healthy and supporting Marcus Peters as the second starting cornerback. Furthermore, the Rams have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. New Orleans gained 425 yards in their victory over the Eagles last week. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Saints have also evolved into a control the clock offensive team that was best embodied by an eighteen play drive in the 3rd quarter against Philadelphia that lasted over 11 minutes. New Orleans held the football for 37:15 minutes which helped them hold the Eagles to just 250 yards of offense — and only 100 yards over the final three-quarters of that game. This zeal to control Time of Possession is one of the reasons why the Saints have averaged just 19 PPG over their last eight games. Their defense should get some of the credit for the drop in the Saints’ scoring numbers as well since head coach Sean Payton does not have to game plan to reach 30 points to have a chance to win. Throw out that Week 17 game with the Panthers and the Saints have allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last eight contests while holding seven of those opponents to under 17 points. New Orleans is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by limiting opposing rushers to just 3.98 Yards-Per-Carry. The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: While the first meeting between these two teams was one of the highest-scoring games of the season, this rematch profiles differently with both offensive head coaches enamored with the prospect of controlling Time of Possession by sustaining longer drives. With the number again in the high-50s, expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NFL LA Rams-New Orleans O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (311). New Orleans (14-3) reached the NFC Conference Championship Game with their 20-14 win over Philadelphia last Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (14-3) has won three straight games with their 30-22 win over Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. This is a rematch of the Saints’ 45-35 win in New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog back on November 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans showed resiliency to pull out that game last week despite falling behind 14-0 in the first-quarter. The Saints surrendered 150 yards in the opening quarter to the reigning Super Bowl Champions before clamping down to limit the Eagles offense to only 100 more yards of offense. The officials certainly did New Orleans few favors as they were pretty whistle-happy in calling holding penalties on their offensive line — yet Drew Brees and this team could not be denied winning this game on their home field. Remember, the Saints cover the point spread if they hit a late field goal attempt. They out-gained Philly by a 420 to 250 yards margin. They also took the lead and seized control of this game with an eighteen play drive in the 3rd quarter that ate over 11 minutes of time off the clock while overcame 25 yards in penalties to result in a touchdown that started on their 8-yard line. Those efforts are good signs for New Orleans today as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. And while the Saints have not covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Much has been said this week about the “struggling” Saints offense that has scored only 19 PPG over their last six games. Some caveats should be offered when presenting that statistic — most notably, that the offense was missing their top offensive lineman in Terron Armstead to close out the the regular season before getting him back on the field last week. Furthermore, we can throw out the meaningless Week 17 game against Carolina while remembering two of those games were on the road against two good defenses with Carolina and Dallas. New Orleans did put up 31 points at home in an important win over the Steelers during this final stretch that never seems to get mentioned. The Saints score 32.6 PPG at home this season — and the 420 yards they generated last week were higher than their 402.9 YPG season average in the Superdome. Brees completes 75.9% of his passes in the dome while averaging 9.31 Yards-Per-Attempt with an incredible 23 touchdown passes to just 2 interceptions. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The defense should get some of the credit for the drop in the Saints’ scoring numbers, as well, since head coach Sean Payton does not have to game plan to reach 30 points to have a chance to win. Throw out that Week 17 game with the Panthers and the Saints have allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last eight contests while holding seven of those opponents to under 17 points. Los Angeles has won and covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three in a row. That victory over the Cowboys was against a team that finished just 3-6 on the road while averaging only 17.9 PPG in those contests. The Rams have morphed into a rushing team to close out the season — they have rushed for at least 155 yards in three straight games. But while LA has scored at least 30 points in three straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in three straight contests. Of course, one of the reasons why head coach Sean McVay has decided to run the ball more is to hide quarterback Jared Goff who was exposed in a two-game stretch against the Bears and Eagles. Goff struggles against teams with good pass rushes — he ranks 28th in the league in Passer Rating when facing pressure and gets off the McVay script. The Saints' defense rank 5th in the NFL when playing at home in both sacks and QB Pressures. Goff has thrown for more than 220 yards only once in his last six games. Goff clearly misses wide receiver Cooper Cupp who was his security blanket. In his six career starts without Cupp, Goff sees his passing YPG drop by 22.6 yards while his Yards-Per-Attempt drops a whopping 1.3 YPA. Goff also is a much better passer at home where he averages 8.8 YPA with a 22:3 TD-to-interception ratio — but those numbers plummet to just 7.56 YPA with a middling 10:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio when he is playing on the road. Those are ominous numbers for this young quarterback now playing in one of the loudest football stadiums in the NFL. Goff may be required to win this game with his arm considering this Saints’ defense is outstanding against the run. New Orleans is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by limiting opposing rushers to just 3.98 Yards-Per-Carry. This is an expected higher-scoring game with the Total set in the high-50s — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And while LA has revenge on their minds from the first meeting, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when attempting to avenge a same-season upset loss as a road favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints are very reliable in expected close games as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. This is their fourth straight game at home as well so they hold a big situational edge which afforded them the opportunity to coast out the close of the regular season. New Orleans will miss defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week — but he was often double-team which put the onus on his teammates to make plays. With their playoff experience and the better quarterback, look for the Saints to seize this moment and play their best game since peaking with that 48-7 win over the Eagles in mid-November. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (308) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (13-3) closed out their regular season with a 33-14 upset loss to Carolina as an 8-point favorite. Philadelphia (10-7) has won four straight games with Nick Foles under center after their 16-15 upset win at Chicago last Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. This is a rematch of the Week Eleven meeting between these two teams back on November 18th where the Saints destroyed the Eagles in the Superdome by a 48-7 score.

REASONS TO TAKE NEW ORLEANS MINUS THE POINTS: If I am going to play-against a team with a chip on their shoulder looking to avenge a 41-point same-season loss — with the point spread value that often creates in the betting market — I am going to very comfortable with that decision. I am. We can’t be zombies in these situations — especially because appealing betting situations often run into conflict other reliable betting situations pointing to the other side. Playoff teams looking to avenge a loss of at least 30 points in the regular season have lost nine of those fourteen showdowns. I never researched the against-the-spread numbers on those — but seeing five outright wins is certainly not an argument against the Eagles. Frankly, I just assumed the worst about how these avenging dogs generally do in these playoff situations. But that the personality of this Philly team goes the other way as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road by at least two touchdowns. I also am not going to haphazardly bet against any team that has pulled off four straight upset victories in the playoffs while winning five of their last six games outright when getting the points. I was on the wrong side of too many of those playoff upset victories. But each new situation is unique — and I hate the circumstances this Eagles team faces entering this game. This is Philly’s third straight game on the road — and it is their fifth game in their last six contests away from home. And let’s remember that despite all the Foles magic, this is a team that needed a missed game-ending field goal to escape Chicago with that win. They were out-gained by the Bears by 56 net yards after gaining just 300 yards in that game. Philly is going to struggle to run the football this afternoon as they have averaged just 3.23 Yards-Per-Carry since Foles took over at quarterback. They now face a stout Saints’ run defense that is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG and third best in the league using the advanced metrics by Football Outsiders. New Orleans allows opposing rushers to average just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry when playing at home. Making the Eagles one-dimensional was one of the keys to their blowout victory in November. Furthermore, the Philadelphia defense has been decimated with injuries — and while the three new defensive backs that were exposed in the first meeting between these two teams have developed, that does not change the fact these remains NFL-level backup players with size and/or speed deficiencies now facing Drew Brees. Four of the last five opponents that the Eagles have faced have generated at least 300 passing yards. Brees will be facing a defense that has allowed their last four of their last five opposing quarterbacks to average 11.6 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdown passes of over 20 yards in the air. Brees has an impeccable 128.6 Passer Rating of passes of at least 20 yards in the air this season. Philadelphia has simply been exposed by good offenses. In their six games against playoff teams during the regular season, the Eagles surrendered 28.8 PPG with that number rising to a 33.3 PPG mark when playing on the road as compared to the 17.5 PPG they held their twelve opponents who did not make the playoffs with that mark actually falling to 16.8 PPG surrendered when playing non-playoff teams on the road. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards. And don’t underestimate the problem playing on the faster field turf in the Superdome presents to this Philly team as it will exacerbate the speed issues they have with their backup in their secondary. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on field turf. Saints’ head coach Sean Payton had the luxury of resting most of his key starters in that loss to the Panthers that should be ignored when handicapping this game. The New Orleans starters have essentially has had three weeks off to get rested and ready for the playoffs. This team is getting healthy again with the biggest boost being with the return of left tackle Terron Armstead whose shoulder injury played a big role in Brees’ mini-slump late in the season. The Saints’ offense is a machine when they are playing at home — they average 34.1 PPG while putting up over 400 yards of offense this season. Brees has an impeccable 21:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when playing at home while averaging 9.54 Yards-Per-Attempt as compared to his 11:4 ratio and 6.88 YPA marks on the road. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 25 of the last 31 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Saints defense has also been underappreciated down the stretch of the season. Take out the meaningless Carolina game in Week 17 and New Orleans has held their last seven opponents to just 14.6 PPG while ranking 5th in the NFL with 49 sacks and 101 quarterback hits over that span. This team under Payton has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of January.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles were my Best Bet to win the Super Bowl back in August — so I really appreciate what Doug Pederson has done with this franchise. Too many injuries, too many road games, too many hurdles to overcome — and now they run into a rested, tanned and ready Saints bulldozer of a team at home. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (308) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-7) has won four straight games with Nick Foles under center after their 16-15 upset win at Chicago last Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) closed out their regular season with a 33-14 upset loss to Carolina as an 8-point favorite. This is a rematch of the Week Eleven meeting between these two teams back on November 18th where the Saints destroyed the Eagles in the Superdome by a 48-7 score. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Saints’ head coach Sean Payton had the luxury of resting most of his key starters in that loss to the Panthers. The New Orleans starters have essentially had three weeks off to get rested and ready for the playoffs — and this is a team that has played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total when coming off a bye week. This team is getting healthy again with the biggest boost being with the return of left tackle Terron Armstead whose shoulder injury played a big role in Brees’ mini-slump late in the season. The Saints’ offense is a machine when at home — they average 34.1 PPG while putting up over 400 yards of offense this season. Brees has an impeccable 21:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when playing at home while averaging 9.54 Yards-Per-Attempt as compared to his 11:4 ratio and 6.88 YPA marks on the road. New Orleans has played 21 of their 30 games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Saints have played 6 straight playoff games at home Over the Total. They face a Philadelphia defense has been decimated with injuries — and while the three new defensive backs that were exposed in the first meeting between these two teams have developed, that does not change the fact these three players remain NFL-level backup players with size and/or speed deficiencies now facing Drew Brees again. Four of the last five opponents that the Eagles have faced have generated at least 300 passing yards. Brees will be facing a defense that has allowed their last four of their last five opposing quarterbacks to average 11.6 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdown passes of over 20 yards in the air. Brees has an impeccable 128.6 Passer Rating of passes of at least 20 yards in the air this season. Philadelphia has simply been exposed by good offenses. In their six games against playoff teams during the regular season, the Eagles surrendered 28.8 PPG with that number rising to a 33.3 PPG mark when playing on the road as compared to the 17.5 PPG they held their twelve opponents who did not make the playoffs with that mark actually falling to 16.8 PPG surrendered when playing non-playoff teams on the road. I do expect the Nick Foles-led offense to keep pace with the Saints scoring as the New Orleans defense gives up 25.6 PPG along with 373.4 total YPG when playing at home. Besides the calming presence Foles apparently provides his teammates in the huddle, a big strength he provides to head coach Doug Pederson and this Eagles offense is his quick decision-making and release. In this last four-game stretch, Foles is averaging just 2.2 seconds per pass attempt which is the fastest rate in all the NFL during that span. This skill is liberating the Philly offensive coaching brethren to get creative with their play-calling. The Eagles’ offensive line has responded as well — Foles is seeing a clean pocket in 70.4% of his passing plays over their last four games in a metric that is even more impressive considering that they played the ferocious Bears’ defense and three other defenses that rank in the Top 15 in sacks. Philadelphia has played 22 of their last 30 games on the road Over the Total — and this includes them playing five of their last seven home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road and four of their last five games Over the Total when playing on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t think the Saints get to 48 points again today — but they should approach their 34.1 PPG scoring average when playing at home. The Philly offense will be much better in this rematch — and I see them scoring in the 25.6 PPG range that the Saints are giving up at home. If both those projections are accurate, we get our Over with room to spare. 10* NFL Philadelphia-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (305) and the New England Patriots (306). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (13-4) has won six of their last seven games with their 23-17 upset win at Baltimore last week as a 3-point underdog. New England (11-5) has won two straight games to close out the regular season with their 38-3 win over the New York Jets as a 14.5-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Los Angeles’ decision to deploy seven defensive backs maximized their speed on the field — and it stymied the Baltimore innovative rushing attack behind rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Look for similar six and seven defensive back schemes against the Patriots this week. Tom Brady’s physical skills have (finally!) begun to decline — and they lack a dynamic deep threat with the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon. Patriots’ tight end Rob Gronkowski has also seen a significant decline in his skills. The Chargers can sub defensive backs for linebackers and let Brady dink-and-dunk them to death — which means long scoring drives and a running clock helping our Under. The Los Angeles defense ranks 8th in the NFL by allowing only 20.6 PPG while also ranking 9th in the league by giving up just 333.7 total YPG. Over their last three games, the Chargers are giving up only 16.0 PPG along with just 320.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. The Patriots generated 375 yards of offense in their last game against the Jets — but they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Patriots have allowed only 32 combined points over their last three games with none of those three teams scoring more than 17 points. The New England defense is very stingy at home as they hold their guests to just 16.6 PPG along with a mere 319.5 total YPG — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total at home. Bill Belichick has done a great job of containing Rivers as well. In his last four starts against the Patriots, Rivers has led his team to only 17.0 PPG. And to compound matters, even more, he is facing a New England defense that leads the NFL by playing man-to-man in 57% of their defensive snaps. All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore may be enjoying his best season — he has allowed the second fewest yards after catch this year. He will make things very difficult for wide receiver Keenan Allen. And Rivers averages 7.99 Yards-Per-Attempt against man-to-man coverage this season as compared to his 9.55 YPP mark against zone defenses. Rivers has seen his production decline as of late — he only has one touchdown pass in his last three games. Over that span, the Chargers are scoring just 18.7 PPG over these last three games while average just 239.0 total YPG. Rivers has averaged just 153.7 passing YPG in those last three games with a Passer Rating of only 55.2. In this team’s first fourteen games, they averaged 28.2 PPG along with 392.0 total YPG with Rivers averaging 270.1 passing YPG and posting a 112.4 Passer Rating.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 encounters Under the Total. Playing in cold weather in the 20s, expect another lower-scoring game. 10* NFL LA Chargers-New England CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (305) and the New England Patriots (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (306) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). THE SITUATION: New England (11-5) has won two straight games to close out the regular season with their 38-3 win over the New York Jets as a 14.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Los Angeles (13-4) has won six of their last seven games with their 23-17 upset win at Baltimore last week as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: I like this Chargers team behind Philip Rivers — they have made us a lot of money this season. However, this is just too challenging of circumstances. It is just brutal to ask this west coast team to travel east for the second straight week to play in an early 1 PM ET contest. Los Angeles will have traveled over 10,000 miles over their three-game road trip since Week 17 of the regular season — now they have to play in cold weather with temperatures projected to be in the 20s. It is so hard for the best of teams to play close to their maximum ability with these sets of obstacles. As it is, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game on the road — and they have failed to cover there point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory on the road. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory. And while the Chargers defense held the Ravens to just 229 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in each of their last two games. Rivers has seen his production decline as of late — he only has one touchdown pass in his last three games. Over that span, the Chargers are scoring just 18.7 PPG over these last three games while average just 239.0 total YPG. Rivers has averaged just 153.7 passing YPG in those last three games with a Passer Rating of only 55.2. In this team’s first fourteen games, they averaged 28.2 PPG along with 392.0 total YPG with Rivers averaging 270.1 passing YPG and posting a 112.4 Passer Rating. Maybe Rivers is fatiguing? These are simply far from ideal conditions for a veteran quarterback who has a career 1-8 mark against the Patriots. In his last four starts against a Bill Belichick defense, Rivers has led his team to only 17.0 PPG. And to compound matters even more, he is facing a New England defense that leads the NFL by playing man-to-man in 57% of their defensive snaps. All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore may be enjoying his best season — he has allowed the second fewest yards after catch this year. He will make things very difficult for wide receiver Keenan Allen. And Rivers averages 7.99 Yards-Per-Attempt against man-to-man coverage this season as compared to his 9.55 YPP mark against zone defenses. New England has allowed only 32 combined points over their last three games. This Patriots team is very tough to beat when the defense is playing well. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 17 points in three straight contests. The New England defense is very stingy at home as they hold their guests to just 16.6 PPG along with a mere 319.5 total YPG. While we are witnesses the inevitable deterioration of Tom Brady’s skills — this remains a Patriots team was unbeaten at home this year with a +16.3 net point differential in those games. But the Patriots offense still cranks it up when playing in Foxboro as they average 32.9 PPG along with 430.6 total YPG. New England is 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games when favored by no more than 7 points. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Playing the physical Ravens team on both sides of the ball in two of their last three games may be yet another under- appreciated concern for this Chargers team. They now face the gauntlet of this New England team that has won eleven of their last twelve home playoff games in the AFC Divisional playoffs. 25* AFC Playoff Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (306) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (304) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (303). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (13-3) takes the field again after their 48-32 victory over San Francisco two weeks ago to close out their regular season. Dallas (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last Saturday with their 24-22 win over Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles rebounded from a late-season swoon by winning their last two games of the season. Their 16-point win over the 49ers was preceded by a decisive 31-9 victory at Arizona. Those wins are a good sign for the Rams now as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at last four touchdowns in their last game against an NFC West rival. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning their last two games over divisional rivals. And while the Rams have raced out to 12 and 21 point halftime leads in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after holding double-digit leads in two straight games. Quarterback Jared Goff was exposed in losses at Chicago and home to Philadelphia down the stretch of the season. While I considered Goff a bit overrated in relation to the peak of Rams/Sean McVay worship earlier this season, there has been an overreaction to Goff’s struggles against two good defenses with that Bears game being in a very chilly environment. McVay made some adjustments to help Goff play better over his final two games where he completed 68% of his passes with an 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt average while tossing 5 touchdown passes with no interceptions and just one sack. Goff has been a much better quarterback this season when playing at home where he enjoys an incredible 22-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio while averaging 9.03 Yards-Per-Attempt — as compared to his 10:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road with a 7.56 YPA mark. He is supported by what might be the best offensive line in football along with a rested Todd Gurley who torched this Dallas defense last year for 215 yards. The Rams are very tough when playing at home where they are 7-1 with an average winning margin of +9.0 PPG due to their explosive offense that scores 37.1 PPG while averaging 452.3 total YPG. Admittedly, the Cowboys will have plenty of fan support in this game — the crowd advantage will be minimal at best for the Rams. But many observers fail to appreciate that one of the main sources of advantage that home teams seize when they play at home comes from familiarity and routine. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. They enter this game having won eight of their last nine games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least eight of their last ten contests. The Cowboys ended the regular season with a 36-35 win in New York against the Giants in their most recent game away from home. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning their last two contests by no more than 6 points in both games. The Cowboys have struggled on the road where they are just 3-5 this season with an average losing margin of -4.6 PPG. Dallas only scores 17.4 PPG when playing on the road while averaging just 324.2 total YPG. Wide receiver Amari Cooper averaged just 4.5 receptions per game since joining the Cowboys when playing on the road for just a 43.5 receiving YPG while failing to score a touchdown. Those numbers are in stark contrast to the 7.0 receptions per game he averaged at home in Dallas with a 109.5 receiving YPG mark while averaging a touchdown per game. The Cowboys defense also allows 367.6 YPG when playing away from home which is almost 40 YPG higher than their season average. The Dallas pass defense has declined down the stretch of the season after peaking in that big Thursday night win when they hosted New Orleans. Since that victory in Week 13, the Cowboys have allowed opposing passers to complete 65.1% of their passes while averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. These opposing QBs have thrown 7 touchdown passes with just one interception while the Dallas defense has registered only seven sacks in those last five games. The Cowboys rush defense has also struggled as of late when playing on the road. In their last four road games, Dallas has allowed 105.5 rushing YPG along with a 5.02 Yards-Per-Carry average against the middling rushing attacks of Atlanta, Philadelphia, the NY Giants and Indianapolis. Dallas has allowed their last three opponents to score 25.7 PPG along with 374.3 total YPG which is more than 5 PPG and 40 YPG more than their season averages. Those are not encouraging trends for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has been a much better team at home this year than they have been on the road. After their win over the Seahawks last week, the pressure is off this franchise. While some would say that they are playing with the proverbial house money, I suspect this lack of urgency will result in a loss of edge when facing this Rams’ team that absolutely must win this game after being upset at home to the Falcons in their lone playoff game last year. 10* NFL Dallas-LA Rams Fox-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (304) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (303) and the Los Angeles Rams (304). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last Saturday with their 24-22 win over Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (13-3) takes the field again after their 48-32 victory over San Francisco two weeks ago to close out their regular season.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Los Angeles should the pace-setters when it comes to scoring in this game as they average a robust 37.1 PPG along with 453.2 total YPG when playing at home. The Rams have played 4 straight home games Over the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 29 of their last 44 home games Over the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 7 point range. But defense has been a concern for this team who allows 28.1 PPG on their home field along with 378.7 total YPG. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball against the Rams’ defense that ranks just 23rd in the NFL by allowing 122.2 rushing YPG. LA allows opposing rushers to average 4.88 Yards-Per-Carry — so Ezekiel Elliott has a good opportunity to have his running the football. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas enters this game having won eight of their last nine games — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Cowboys have also played 5 of the last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Dallas generated 380 yards of offense last week in their victory over the Seahawks — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Over their last three contests, this Cowboys offense that was jumpstarted with the acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper has averaged 29.0 PPG. But their vaunted defense has surrendered 25.7 PPG along with 374.3 total YPG over those last three games as well. The Dallas pass defense has declined down the stretch of the season after peaking in that big Thursday night win when they hosted New Orleans. Since that victory in Week 13, the Cowboys have allowed opposing passers to complete 65.1% of their passes while averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. These opposing QBs have thrown 7 touchdown passes with just one interception while the Dallas defense has registered only seven sacks in those last five games. The Cowboys rush defense has also struggled as of late when playing on the road. In their last four road games, Dallas has allowed 105.5 rushing YPG along with a 5.02 Yards-Per-Carry average against the middling rushing attacks of Atlanta, Philadelphia, the NY Giants and Indianapolis. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: This should be a competitive game — so look for Dallas to keep up with the Rams’ offense that should be rested and ready for this showdown. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (303) and the Los Angeles Rams (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (301). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-4) closed out their regular season with a 35-3 victory over Oakland back on December 30th as 14.5-point favorites. Indianapolis (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs with their 21-7 upset win at Houston last Saturday as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Colts have won two crucial de-facto playoff games in a row with their triumph in Houston last week preceded by their victory at Tennessee for Sunday Night Football two weeks ago that was necessary for them to clinch the sixth and final AFC playoff spot. It is very hard to continue to be road warriors like this in single-elimination football games — a bad break or two can offer the home team insurmountable momentum. Indianapolis looks due for a letdown after covering the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after they covered the point spread in at least three of their last four games. And while the Colts rushed out to a 21-0 halftime lead last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying at least a two-touchdown lead in the first-half of their last game. Andrew Luck led the offense 422 yards in that win but Indy has then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after they gained at least 400 yards in their last game. Remember that the Colts offense stalled in the second-half as they did not score a single point. Indianapolis has benefited from the second easiest regular season record according to some of the analytical breakdowns with some of the metrics grading out the opposing quarterbacks they encountered as the easiest cast of characters as any team faced this season. The best statistical offense they faced was against the Patriots — and Tom Brady lit up the Colts defense for 38 points. These are all ominous circumstances for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chiefs are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while KC has only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five contests. Patrick Mahomes may be set up to enjoy a fantastic game against this Colts team that leads the NFL in playing Cover-2 or Cover-3 zone defenses. These schemes that dedicate two or three defensive backs in zone coverage leaves the middle of the field in intermediate areas wide open. Andy Reid’s schemes rip these defenses apart with Mahomes quickly mastering these skills. Mahomes has averaged an 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt this season — and that number rises to a 9.2 YPA mark when he is facing Cover-2 or Cover-3 schemes this year. Furthermore, in their five games against teams that rank in top-eight in the frequency of deploying zone schemes, Mahomes has completed 64.5% of the 167 passes he has attempted while generating 14 touchdown passes to zero interceptions. Reid’s effectiveness in coaching with the benefit of the bye week is legendary — his teams have won twenty-one of their twenty-five games when playing with this advantage. Reid has also overseen four victories in five playoff games with the benefit of a second week of prep.

FINAL TAKE: Lastly, it is going to be cold in Kansas City for this game with temperatures topping in the mid-30s with a 90% chance of precipitation (as of this writing) with a good possibility of snow. Those are not ideal conditions for a dome team, to say the least. The Chiefs should win and cover the spread. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Kansas City NBC-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-6) advanced to the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs with their 21-7 upset win at Houston last Saturday as a 2-point underdog. Kansas City (12-4) closed out their regular season with a 35-3 victory over Oakland back on December 30th as 14.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: My first point is my last argument — as of this writing, there is a 90% of precipitation with the high in Kansas City being the mid-30s. If there is snow, that very much helps our Under play with the number currently set in the high-50s. I recommend getting down on this play ASAP — because if flurries appear, this number will go down. That said, even if there is no snow during this game, the Under is a strong play (and it is a strong play with a lower number if it does, in fact, snow). Cold weather does not help passing games with quarterbacks and receivers playing with cold hands and less than ideal conditions — remember the Rams playing in chilly Chicago for Sunday Night Football last month. Patrick Mahomes had three of his five games where he failed to generate at least 300 passing yards in the cooler December weather. The Chiefs’ offensive numbers dipped a bit over their last three games as they scored 31.3 PPG while averaging 374.0 total YPG which was 4.0 PPG and over 50 YGP below their season averages. Mahomes may also have some jitters and rust with the extra week off before making his playoff debut — and it does not take many failed drives to make the Over with this high Total unlikely. The Kansas City defense is not great — but they were significantly better at home where they held their opponents to just 18.0 PPG/354.7 YPG as compared to the 34.3 PPG/456.3 YPG they surrendered when playing on the road. The tendency for games played at Arrowhead Stadium trend strongly to the Under as those tickets are 49-22-1 in the last 72 games played there. The Under is also 16-7-1 in KC’s last 24 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total in the playoffs. Indianapolis has played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road as an underdog. The Colts generated 422 yards of offense in that game — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Quarterback Andrew Luck has been great all season — but he has thrived at home where he is completing 70.7% of his passes with that number dropping to a 64.2% mark when playing on the road. Wide receiver certainly sees his production decline when playing outside where he averages 24.8 receiving YPG — and he is slowed with an ankle injury still. Indianapolis has played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total when playing a winning record at home. The Colts formula for success will likely be to run the football to burn clock and keep Mahomes off the field — especially when playing in a hostile environment. They score only 23.9 PPG when playing away from home. Indy holds their home hosts to scoring just 20.9 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 17.0 PPG along with 324.0 total YPG. Indianapolis should be able to slow down Kansas City offensive juggernaut living life now without running back Kareem Hunt as they are 8th in the NFL by allowing 101.8 rushing YPG — and they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry.

FINAL TAKE: Defenses have caught up a bit with the explosive Chiefs offense — but the Total remains historically high for this divisional round playoff game. Indy wants a shorter game to put Luck in a position to outduel Mahomes — and that is a formula for the Under. And if there is snow, both of these offenses might slow significantly down. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (108) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (107). THE SITUATION: Chicago (12-4) has won four straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 24-10 upset at Minnesota last week as a 6-point underdog. Philadelphia (9-7) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six games with their 24-0 win at Washington as a 6-point favorite last week to sneak into the playoffs with that Vikings loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And while the Bears held the Vikings to just 164 yards of offense last week, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This Chicago defense is outstanding — they are holding their opponents to less than 1.5 points-per-drive while forcing a turnover in almost 20% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank first in the NFL by allowing only 17.7 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the NFL by giving up just 299.7 total YPG. Furthermore, over their last three games, the Bears are allowing only 12.0 PPG along with just 255.3 total YPG. Chicago has been very tough to beat at home where they are 7-1 with an average winning margin of +10.6 PPG. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky plays his best at home where he leads an offense that scores 28.1 PPG along with averaging 366.9 total YPG. The Bears are a decisive 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home — and they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point spread. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia took care of business against a Washington team ravaged with injuries — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after a win by at least three touchdowns. The Eagles held the Skins to just 21 rushing yards along with only 68 passing yards in their win — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 30 rushing yards in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. While it may be tempting to think this team is set up to make another improbable playoff run with Nick Foles again under center, keep in mind that the deeper metrics for this team indicate this is a completely average football team which is a stark contrast from what those numbers were indicating at this time last season. Injuries have hit this team very hard particularly in their secondary with Rodney McLeod, Ronald Darby, and Jalen Mills out the season and now cornerback Sidney Jones out for this game with a hamstring injury. On offense, their rushing attack misses Jay Ajayi from last year while the offensive line has not been as dominant as last year’s group. The Eagles’ offense tends to stall if they cannot establish a credible rushing attack — and they are now facing the NFL stingiest run defense in the league as the Bears allow only 80.0 rushing YPG. Philadelphia has only scored more than 24 points twice in their eight road games this season — and they have yet to play a defense as stout as this Chicago unit. The Bears have the personnel to not have to blitz Foles. Last year’s Super Bowl MVP has struggled when facing zone defenses against which he averages just 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt with zero touchdown passes with three interceptions and five sacks — as compared to his 10.6 YPA mark against man-to-man defense with 5 five touchdown passes, zero interceptions and just one sack. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia’s run as reigning Super Bowl champions likely ends tonight. They have a -6 net turnover margin for the season which is an ominous number when facing this Bears team that enjoys a +12 net turnover margin. Expect Chicago to eventually pull away for an easy win. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Chicago Bears (108) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (107) and the Chicago Bears (108). THE SITUATION: Chicago (12-4) has won four straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 24-10 upset at Minnesota last week as a 6-point underdog. Philadelphia (9-7) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six games with their 24-0 win at Washington as a 6-point favorite last week to sneak into the playoffs with that Vikings loss.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset win as an underdog. The Bears have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they held the Vikings to just 63 rushing yards last week, Chicago has then played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, while the Bears have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of the last five games. This Chicago defense is outstanding — they are holding their opponents to less than 1.5 points-per-drive while forcing a turnover in almost 20% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank first in the NFL by allowing only 17.7 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the NFL by giving up just 299.7 total YPG. Furthermore, over their last three games, the Bears are allowing only 12.0 PPG along with just 255.3 total YPG. Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 4 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Bears have played all 4 games Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 12 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Eagles outrushed the Skins by 108 net yards, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 100 yards in their last game. But this Eagles’ offense tends to stall if they cannot establish a credible rushing attack — and they are now facing the NFL stingiest run defense in the league as the Bears allow only 80.0 rushing YPG. Philadelphia has only scored more than 24 points twice in their eight road games this season — and they have yet to play a defense as stout as this Chicago unit. The Bears have the personnel to not have to blitz Nick Foles and drop back linebackers into pass coverage. Last year’s Super Bowl MVP has struggled when facing zone defenses against which he averages just 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt with zero touchdown passes with three interceptions and five sacks — as compared to his 10.6 YPA mark against man-to-man defense with 5 five touchdown passes, zero interceptions and just one sack. Foles too often becomes a dink-and-dunker as he is last in the NFL by averaging a mere 6.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Lastly, the Under is 5-2-1 in the Eagles’ last 8 games in the month of January.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will have trouble scoring against this stout Bears’ defense. But the Bears are likely to struggle to move the ball as well with Mitchell Trubisky playing in his first playoff game. The weather looks to be in the low-40s with it pretty windy at 15 Miles-Per-Hour which might impact his deeper passes down the field. Chicago also has a host of injuries at wide receiver — and while Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Taylor Gabriel are all listed as probable, their effectiveness for today’s game remains in doubt. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Chicago NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (107) and the Chicago Bears (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (105) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (106). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (12-4) has won five of their last six games with their 23-9 win at Denver as a 7-point favorite last week. Baltimore (10-6) has won three games in a row with their 26-24 victory over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. This is a rematch of the Ravens’ 22-10 upset victory in Los Angeles back on December 22nd as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 49 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Head coach Anthony Lynn should have this team ready to play in this revenge spot from two weeks ago as the Chargers have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 opportunities to avenge an upset loss. Los Angeles stays on the road for the third time in four weeks — but this team under veteran quarterback Philip Rivers are the epitome of road warriors. The Chargers are 8-1 this season with an average winning margin of +7.1 PPG due to a defense that limits their home hosts to just 19.8 PPG. Los Angeles is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games on the road — and this includes them covering the point spread in seven of their last eight games away from home. The Chargers have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. The Chargers have a huge benefit in facing the new run-dominant Ravens offense two weeks ago. It is a challenge to prepare for this Baltimore offense since practice squads do not have players that can adequately replicate rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson’s skill set. In this quick turnaround rematch, look for the Chargers’ defense to stay committed to assignment football which is the most effective way to slow down these wishbone style rushing attacks. Don’t be surprised if Los Angeles also has their defensive backs employ inside presses along while running some corner or safety blitzes to put the pressure on Jackson. The rookie has completed only 17 of 34 passes when facing a blitz this season while getting sacked 5 times. The Chargers should force Jackson to beat him with his arm — and he was not adept in his college career in accurately delivering fade route passes that he should be forced into making this afternoon. 115 of Jackson’s 185 pass attempts this season (68%) have been no longer than 10 passing yards — so daring him to execute medium and longer passes should be the order of the day. Baltimore allowed only a touchdown to the Browns in the first-half last week after holding the Chargers scoreless in the first-half in the previous week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first-half in two straight games. And while the Ravens have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Despite the winning streak this team has enjoyed behind Jackson, they have averaged just 22.7 PPG over their last three games. They host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, this playoff game comes down to a rookie quarterback who is untested in winning games with his arm versus a likely first-ballot Hall of Famer. It is telling that the Ravens have not won a game this season if they trailed in it after the end of the third quarter. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers pull the upset but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL LA Chargers-Baltimore CBS-TV Special with the Los Angeles Chargers (105) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (105) and the Baltimore Ravens (106). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (12-4) has won five of their last six games with their 23-9 win at Denver as a 7-point favorite last week. Baltimore (10-6) has won three games in a row with their 26-24 victory over Cleveland as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. This is a rematch of the Ravens’ 22-10 upset victory in Los Angeles back on December 22nd as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have seen the Under go a decisive 35-15-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Under is also 10-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 15 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Los Angeles defense is one of the best in the league by allowing just 20.1 PPG which is 8th in the NFL — and that number drops to 19.8 PPG when playing on the road. The Chargers have a huge benefit in facing the new run-dominant Ravens offense two weeks ago. It is a challenge to prepare for this Baltimore offense since practice squads do not have players that can adequately replicate rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson’s skill set. In this quick turnaround rematch, look for the Chargers’ defense to stay committed to assignment football which is the most effective way to slow down these wishbone style rushing attacks. Don’t be surprised if Los Angeles also has their defensive backs employ inside presses along while running some corner or safety blitzes to put the pressure on Jackson. The rookie has completed only 17 of 34 passes when facing a blitz this season while getting sacked 5 times. The Chargers should force Jackson to beat him with his arm — and he was not adept in his college career in accurately delivering fade route passes that he should be forced into making this afternoon. 115 of Jackson’s 185 pass attempts this season (68%) have been no longer than 10 passing yards — so daring him to execute medium and longer passes should be the order of the day. However, a problem for the Chargers has been that their offense has been sputtering as of late after suffering their worst points and yardage games for the season in each of the last two seasons. 7 of their points last week against the Broncos were from an 18-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown — and their only touchdown the previous week against the Ravens was from a short drive after recovering a fumble at the 17-yard line. Quarterback Philip Rivers has thrown for less than 220 yards in three of his last four starts while tossing six interceptions over his last three games. To compound matters, Los Angeles will be traveling east to play this 1 PM ET game with their body clocks thinking it is 10 AM (with me). The Chargers have played two straight games Under the Total — and they have then played 7 straight road games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. And while LA has only allowed two field goals in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. And while the Broncos gained 370 yards against them last week, the Chargers have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Baltimore gave up an uncharacteristic 426 yards last week to the Browns — but they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Cleveland only had 56 offensive plays in that game which was 10.6 snaps below their season average. One of the benefits of the Ravens’ commitment to running the football is burning time off the clock. Baltimore has averaged 45.1 rushes per game in the seven games that Jackson has started — and this has correlated to opposing offenses averaging 10.9 fewer offensive plays during that span. The Ravens have the best statistical defense in the NFL by allowing 292.0 total YPG and they rank second in the league by giving up only 17.9 PPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has allowed just 15.3 PPG along with only 288.3 total YPG. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 playoff games Under the Total when playing at home — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games in the month of January.

FINAL TAKE: This game features two good defenses that just faced the respective offenses two weeks ago. Combine that dynamic with a Chargers team that likes to control Time of Possession facing a Baltimore team obsessed with controlling the clock — and the result is a great formula for the Under. 25* AFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (105) and the Baltimore Ravens (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the point(s) versus the Seattle Seahawks (103). THE SITUATION: Dallas (10-6) has won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 36-35 upset win in New York against the Giants as a 7.5-point underdog. Seattle (10-6) has also won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-24 win over Arizona as a 14-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Dallas closed out their season with a win over a divisional rival despite resting much of their players — that is why they closed that game as an underdog getting around a touchdown. The Cowboys are such a fragile team — they feel great about winning that meaningless way given the way they celebrated afterward — and they should feed off that momentum for this contest. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after an upset victory — and they have also covered the point spread 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory over an NFC East rival. Furthermore, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Dallas will benefit from having a fresh Ezekiel Elliott in this game. This team is also getting as healthy again on their offensive line with Tyron Smith, Connor Williams and Zack Martin all upgraded to probable for this game. The Cowboys should be able to find success running the football against this Seahawks defense that has allowed opposing rushers to average 5.13 Yards-Per-Carry since Week Nine. Dallas gets to host this game where they score 25.0 PPG while averaging 363.4 total YPG. Of course, the Cowboys season numbers on offense are skewed down because their acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper transformed their offense by offering QB Dak Prescott a legitimate number one wide receiver target — and the mere threat of Cooper down the field opens the running game up for Elliott. In their three-game home stand from Thanksgiving until the second Sunday in December against Washington, New Orleans, and Philadelphia, Dallas averaged 429.3 YPG which demonstrates the positive impact Cooper had on their offense. Dallas is a near perfect 7-1 at home with an average winning margin of +6.5 PPG where they are scoring 25.0 PPG while averaging 363.4 total YPG. The Cowboys defense has been very stingy at home as well as they hold their opponents to just 18.5 PPG along with limiting them to only 290.9 total YPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC foes. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win at home — and they may be due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning four of their last five games. Their narrow win over the Cardinals followed up that 38-31 win at home over Kansas City — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after winning their last two games at home by 7 points or less. Seattle has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys used to have middling results when playing at home in AT&T Stadium but Jerry’s World has finally given this team a significant home-field advantage behind an exuberant crowd that helps their role players play better. Dallas is a much-improved team with Cooper in the mix than they were when these two teams first played in late September. Head coach Pete Carroll has done a great job with the Seahawks this season — but look for them to fall short on the road against a Dallas team that is very tough at home these days. 10* NFL Seattle-Dallas Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the point(s) versus the Seattle Seahawks (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-6) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 27-24 win over Arizona as a 14-point favorite last week. Dallas (10-6) has also won two straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests with their 36-35 victory in New York against the Giants as a 7.5-point underdog. This is a rematch of the Seahawks 24-13 win at home in Seattle as a 2-point favorite back on September 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Seattle has become a power running team that has averaged at least 28 rushing attempts per game since Week Two. But this team’s ability to burn time off the clock does not necessarily translate into a bunch of Unders. The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against NFC rivals — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. This running of the football sets up their play-action passing which they deploy in 32% of their pass attempts which is the second most in the NFL — and they are sixth in the league by averaging 8.8 Yards-Per-Play from play-action. The Cowboys are vulnerable against play-action passing — they have only seen in it 21% of their opponent’s pass attempts but they are in the bottom half of the league by allowing 7.9 YPP against play-action. Play-action also sets up QB Russell Wilson to throw the deep ball — and he ranks second in the NFL by averaging 15.6 YPP when throwing at least 16 yards past the line of scrimmage. The Seattle play-action game is so dangerous because opposing defenses have to commit to slow down their rushing attack that leads the NFL by averaging 160.0 rushing YPG. The Seahawks trio of running backs of Chris Carson, Mike Davis and Rashard Penny combine to average 4.6 YPC. The Cowboys’ defense has allowed 26.0 PPG along with 398.0 total YPG over their last three games. Seattle has averaged 29.3 PPG along with 380.0 total YPG over their last three contests. They go on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 31 of their last 46 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in the playoffs. Dallas has played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Cowboys will have a rested Ezekiel Elliott who got last week off to mend and rest for this game. They managed just 51 rushing yards last week — but they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Dallas is getting as healthy again on their offensive line with Tyron Smith, Connor Williams and Zack Martin all upgraded to probable for this game. The Cowboys should be able to find success running the football against this Seahawks defense that has allowed opposing rushers to average 5.13 Yards-Per-Carry since Week Nine. Dallas gets to host this game where they score 25.0 PPG while averaging 363.4 total YPG. Of course, the Cowboys season numbers on offense are skewed down because their acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper transformed their offense by offering QB Dak Prescott a legitimate number one wide receiver target — and the mere threat of Cooper down the field opens the running game up for Elliott. In their three-game homestand from Thanksgiving until the second Sunday in December against Washington, New Orleans, and Philadelphia, Dallas averaged 429.3 YPG which demonstrates the positive impact Cooper had on their offense. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams seem likely to be able to move the ball running the football — and that will open up their respective passing attacks. This shapes up to be a close game — and the urgency of this single-elimination playoff game should push the scoring into the high-40s. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (101) and the Houston Texans (102). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-3 win over Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-6) has won four straight games after they defeated the Titans in Tennessee last Sunday night to clinch the final wildcard spot in the AFC. These two teams will be meeting for the third time: the Texans won the first matchup on September 30th by a 37-34 score as a 1-point favorite before the Colts won the rematch on December 9th by a 24-21 upset score despite being a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Indianapolis has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a victory over a fellow AFC South rival. And while the Colts generated 436 yards in that contest, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. While QB Andrew Luck gets most of the attention, their defense has been playing quite well as of late. Over their last three games, Indy is allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 314.0 total YPG. In their last eight games, the Colts are allowing just 74.6 rushing YPG while limiting opposing rushers to only 3.47 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Indianapolis stays on the road where have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Colts have also played 7 of their last 9 playoff games on the road Under the Total. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and in their last 15 games against AFC South rivals, the Colts have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC South opponents. The Texans have also played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Houston stays at home for this game where they are holding their visitors to just 17.0 PPG along with only 327.2 total YPG. The Texans are 3rd in the league by limiting their opponents to just 82.7 rushing YPG. But Houston is averaging only 333.0 total YPG over their last three games which is -29.6 net YPG below their season average. The Texans leaky offensive line is taking a toll on quarterback DeShaun Watson as he has been sacked a whopping 32 times over his last seven starts. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. While the first game between these two teams was a shootout, the second game in Houston saw 45 combined points. Look for the defenses to have a small net advantage in the third meeting between these two teams. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Houston O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (101) and the Houston Texans (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (102) minus the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (101). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-3 win over Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-6) has won four straight games after they defeated the Titans in Tennessee last Sunday night to clinch the final wildcard spot in the AFC. These two teams will be meeting for the third time: the Texans won the first matchup on September 30th by a 37-34 score as a 1-point favorite before the Colts won the rematch on December 9th by a 24-21 upset score despite being a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE HOUSTON MINUS THE POINT(S): This is a tough spot for Indianapolis who stay on the road for the second straight week in a must-win situation. It might be difficult for the Colts to maintain the intensity they needed to bring last Sunday night to defeat the Titans in Nashville. As it is, Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Colts rushed for 158 yards in that game as this has become a team that likes to run the ball to establish their offense. But getting their ground game going will be difficult against this Texans defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL by allowing just 82.7 rushing YPG. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering three of their last four contests. Quarterback Andrew Luck is having a great comeback season but he is leading a team that is just 4-4 on the road this season while scoring 24.2 PPG and averaging 369.4 total YPG — and those numbers are -2.9 PPG and -16.8 YPG below their overall season averages. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games as an underdog getting no more than 3 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The team is getting relatively healthy for this game with running back Lamar Miller returning to the field last week while rookie slot receiver Keke Coutee (who caught 10 passes in the first encounter with the Colts this year) looks set to finally play again after missing significant time with his hamstring. One of the reasons I give the Texans the edge in this game is they have more established star talent. This is the first season that head coach Bill O’Brien has had the services of defensive ends J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney for the entire season along with linebacker Whitney Mercilus healthy and playing together. I expect defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel will dial up a good scheme in his third opportunity to slow down Luck on offense. Houston also has DeAndre Hopkins who might have enjoyed the best season of all the wide receivers in the NFL simply because he catches everything thrown his way. Second-year DeShaun Watson is also a dynamic player who can match Luck on the field. Home field advantage certainly plays a role in this game as the Texans are 6-2 at home with an average winning margin of +8.9 PPG — and they out-gain their opponents by +52.2 net YPG. Houston’s defense flexes their muscles at home where they hold their visitors to just 17.0 PPG along with only 327.2 YPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as a favorite laying no more than 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 opportunities to avenge a loss when playing on their home field. While Watson lacks the playoff experience of Luck, the core of this Texans team got playoff experience after winning two straight AFC South titles before injuries derailed their campaign last year. Expect home field advantage to make the difference between these two teams. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Houston Texans (102) minus the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (321) and the Tennessee Titans (322). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-6) has won four straight games with their 25-16 win over Washington last Saturday where they failed to cover the -11.5-point spread they were laying as the favorite. Indianapolis (9-6) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 28-27 win over the Giants as a 10-point favorite. This is a de-facto playoff game for both teams: the victor wins the AFC South title and plays next week in the AFC playoffs while the winner goes home.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Indianapolis generated 402 yards in that contest against the Giants — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Indianapolis allowed Eli Manning and the New York offense to gain 392 yards in that contest — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Colts are playing great defense as they have held their last five opponents to just 16.0 PPG along with only 333.0 total YPG. They go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Indianapolis has valued 23 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Tennessee has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. The Titans stay at home for this game this week — and they have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last week’s game at home. Tennessee is second in the NFL by allowing only 18.0 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home. The Titans have held their last three opponents to a mere 8.0 PPG while limiting them to just 269.0 total YPG. The 16 points that Washington scored last week was the most that this defense has allowed in three straight games. Tennessee has played 3 of their last 4 home games Under the Total as the underdog. This team will also be looking to avenge a 38-10 loss to the Colts back on November 18th. The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least four touchdowns to their opponent — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss.

FINAL TAKE: The Tennessee offense received a bad piece of news with this afternoon’s announcement that QB Marcus Mariota would not be able to play given his concerning stinger injury. They will be relying on Blaine Gabbert as their starting quarterback — and that likely will be all the more reason for them to rely heavily on Derrick Henry and their ground attack which helps our Under with the running clock. Expect a lower-score game. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Tennessee NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (321) and the Tennessee Titans (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (322) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (321). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-6) has won four straight games with their 25-16 win over Washington last Saturday where they failed to cover the -11.5-point spread they were laying as the favorite. Indianapolis (9-6) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 28-27 win over the Giants as a 10-point favorite. This is a de-facto playoff game for both teams: the victor wins the AFC South title and plays next week in the AFC playoffs while the winner goes home.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: It certainly is tempting to take Andrew Luck with the Colts in this game as he offers a significant edge at the quarterback position over Blaine Gabbert who was named the starter this afternoon after Marcus Mariota was officially ruled out with his stinger injury. This situation is a perfect example why it is often prudent to wait on the decision to invest in certain situations. And after the news of Gabbert being the quarterback, I had to get in the trenches with research to block my natural inclination to want to bet-against this quarterback that has failed to meet his prior expectations. All the while, I have watched most of the betting world take the Colts in this game — and that has compelled me to believe that it looks awfully easy to take that side of the equation right now. Well, let’s not forget that it is this Tennessee team that has the playoff team — and it is this Titans team with the better defense that will also have the benefit of home field and an energetic crowd for this nationally-televised night game. Tennessee is second in the NFL by allowing only 18.0 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home. The Titans have held their last three opponents to a mere 8.0 PPG while limiting them to just 269.0 total YPG. The 16 points that Washington scored last week was the most that this defense has allowed in three straight games. They limited the Skins to just 131 passing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Admittedly, this Tennessee defense is dealing with some tough injuries with defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, cornerback Logan Ryan and linebacker Brian Orakpo all out for this game. With everything at stake, head coach Mike Vrabel will be preaching the “next man up” — and it helps that this team is playing at home with these subs being energized by the crowd. The Titans are 6-1 at home this year with an average winning margin of +6.1 PPG. Tennessee is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. And in their last 9 games against fellow AFC South opponents, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. This team is further motivated to avenge their ugly 38-10 loss at Indianapolis back on November 18th. The embarrassment of that loss should ensure this team is primed and ready for this game. The Titans have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging a loss where their opponent allowed at least 35 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. Going full circle back to Gabbert, the fact is that he has been a capable professional quarterback since leaving the team that drafted him in Jacksonville. Gabbert completed 11 of 16 passes in relief in that game last month with the Colts albeit in garbage time. Gabbert has won his two starts for this team this season when playing for Mariota. He has completed 18 of 27 passes over his last two appearances for 219 yards for a nice 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average while completing 67% of those passes. He has two TD passes and only one interception in those games. He is capable — but perhaps his presence on the field will ensure that Tennessee commits to pounding the football. Running back Derrick Henry is in the zone right now with 492 rushing yards in his last three games. A decision to use heavy personnel with Henry leading the way can exploit the Colts’ Tampa-2 defense which is a scheme that is vulnerable to teams that decide to run the ball since the onus becomes so important on the weak side linebacker to be the primary help in stopping the rushing attack — and that is rookie Darius Leonard who has played very well this season but it is not quite Derrick Brooks or Lance Briggs at that position. Indianapolis is just 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home. Furthermore, the Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games coming off a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Luck passed for 357 yards last week while leading an offense that gained 402 yards. But Indy has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 300 yards — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. The Colts have been much better at home in Lucas Oil Stadium: on the road, they are just 3-4 while being outscored by -0.4 PPG. Indianapolis had that stinker of a game last month where they were shutout on the road in Jacksonville. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games after winning at least eight of their last ten games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after gaining at least 400 yards.

FINAL TAKE: I recommend holding out as long as possible to see if you can grab a +6 with the Titans — all anything at +4.5 points or higher is nice for this situation. The question is not “who will win this game” — it is whether or not Luck and company cover the point spread they are being required to lay with Mariota out against a team with a great home field edge and an even better defense that is through-the-roof motivated to avenge a loss and get back to the playoffs. The value is all on the side of the Titans given this situation. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (322) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (315) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (316). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (7-7-1) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 26-18 win over Cincinnati as a 10-point favorite last week. Baltimore (9-6) has won five of their last six games as well with their 22-10 upset win at Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 4-point underdog last Sunday. The Ravens clinch the AFC North with a victory — but things can get dicey if they lose this game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: This is Cleveland’s de-facto Super Bowl this season. Not only do they want to sustain the momentum they have garnered in the second-half of this season but they would love to play the role of spoiler to the Ravens. And they would like to add one final piece of evidence that management should retain their interim head coach Gregg Williams as their full-time leader. The Browns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The transformation of this team has started with their rookie quarterback who has silenced all doubters with his outstanding play. Over his last six games, Baker Mayfield has thrown 14 touchdown passes while tossing just four interceptions to lead his team to five victories. His offensive line is doing a great job of protecting him as well as he has been sacked only three times in his 189 pass attempts in these last six games — and Mayfield has been sacked only once in his last 90 pass attempts. Cleveland averaged 7.47 Yards-Per-Play against the Bengals — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after averaging at least 6.5 YPP. The Browns defense is also playing quite well as they have held their last three opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with averaging just 298.7 total YPG. Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog. Baltimore has only allowed 22 combined points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games at home after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. The Ravens defense has been the best in football as they are holding their opponents to just 17.5 PPG along with only 284.0 total YP — but AFC North foes have had better success against them as they are scoring 20.8 PPG while wavering 344.6 total YPG so familiarity seems to help out in finding solutions to the problems they present opposing offenses. Baltimore has found success controlling the time of possession behind the rushing attack anchored by rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. But the Ravens are scoring only 22.0 PPG while averring 350.7 total YPG over their last three games. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Lastly, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with fellow AFC North rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore was in a similar situation last season where they needed a win over Buffalo to clinch a playoff spot. The Ravens saw victory slip away with the last minute long-pass that spoiled their playoff hopes. Baltimore may win this game — but the pressure will make things a challenge. And they are facing a danger underdog who is brimming with confidence after upsetting the Ravens by a 12-9 score as a 3.5-point underdog in early October. 20* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Cleveland Browns (315) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (328) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (327). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-9) has lost three straight games with their 27-14 loss at Oakland as a 2.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (11-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with their 22-10 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot and will the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs unless Kansas City gets upset at home against the Raiders as near two-touchdown favorites. Head coach Anthony Lynn may be scoreboard watching and may decide to rest his key starters (like QB Philip Rivers) if things get out of hand at Arrowhead. As it is, I do not expect an easy time of things for this Chargers team that has lost their last five games at Denver. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit loss. There are lingering concerns with this team moving forward after they managed to generate just 198 yards of offense against the Ravens. Over their last three games, the Chargers have averaged just 21.7 PPG along with only 297.7 total YPG. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Some of the issues on offense has been a breakdown with their offensive line. Rivers has been sacked 20 times over their last six games after enduring just 12 sacks in their first nine contests. That is an ominous sign for Rivers when now facing Von Miller and rookie phenom Bradley Chubb on the other side of the line of scrimmage. It is December as well — and the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the last month of the regular season. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after a double-digit loss to an AFC West rival. While this team has been eliminated from the playoffs, they should be motivated to play hard to end their season. It is likely Vance Joseph’s last game as the head coach with John Elway likely to sack him tomorrow. But Joseph is well-liked in the locker room and his players should play hard for him. Quarterback Case Keenum is also playing for his job with it being a disappointing season for after the Broncos signed him as a free agent in the offseason. The team will be without rookie running back Phillip Lindsey who suffered a season-ending wrist injury — but that creates space for their higher-drafted rookie Royce Freeman to show off his skills in this game. While Freeman lacks Lindsey’s pass-catching abilities, he is a tough inside runner — and the team can turn to Dovontae Booker in passing downs. Denver may be down to young players as receiving targets for Keenum but their defense should keep them competitive in this game. The Broncos have allowed their last three visitors to Denver to average just 323.7 total YPG. Their loss to the Raiders on Monday was helped by a -2 net turnover margin along with allowing a 99-yard punt return for a touchdown earlier in the first quarter that took the winds out of their sails. They did out-gain Oakland by +23 net yards in that game. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has suffered three straight upset losses to ruin their season — but they have played much better at home than they have on the road. This is a team that plays up or down to their competition. They should play one of their better games of the season in this one in their last home contest facing a divisional rival that they will be very confident against after they defeated them in LA last month by a 23-22 score. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (328) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (327). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (325) and the Minnesota Vikings (326). THE SITUATION: Chicago (11-4) has won three straight games with their 14-9 win at San Francisco last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. The Bears have clinched a playoff spot but have an outside chance to earn a first-round bye with a win in this game accompanied by an LA Rams loss. Minnesota (8-6-1) has won their last two games with their 27-9 win at Detroit as a 6.5-point favorite. The Vikings challenge is simple: win and they are in the playoffs as a Wildcard.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they failed to score more than 14 points. The Bears offense is scoring only 17.7 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 316.0 total YPG over that span. Chicago also averages just 318.9 total YPG when playing on the road. The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago managed to rush for just 90 yards against the 49ers — and they have played 26 of their last 39 road games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Bears have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Chicago has held their last three opponents to just 10.7 PPG along with only 272.0 total YPG. The Bears have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in a domed stadium. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Vikings have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Now this team returns home where they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Minnesota flexes their defensive muscles back at home where they are allowing just 19.0 PPG along with only 259.1 total YPG. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Over their last three games, Minnesota has allowed these three opponents to score only 15.7 PPG along with totaling a mere 230.0 YPG. Furthermore, the Vikings have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on November 18th where the Bears won at Soldier Field by a 25-20 score. That game finished just above the 44 point Total — but that was before Kevin Stefanski took over as the offensive coordinator which cemented the team’s commitment to run the football. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (325) and the Minnesota Vikings (326). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (318) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (317). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (5-10) has lost three straight games after their 27-20 loss at Dallas as a 7.5-point underdog last week. Atlanta (6-9) has won their last two games after enduring a five-game losing streak with their 24-10 win at Carolina as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up loss. The Bucs held the Cowboys to just 232 yards of offense — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. This Tampa Bay team has finally solved some of their problems on defense as they have held their last three opponents to only 300.0 total Yards-Per-Game. This improved play has led the Bucs to play five straight Unders — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Jameis Winston has played better at the quarterback position since taking back the starting job for perhaps the last time. He completed 34 of 48 passes for 336 yards with a touchdown — and, perhaps most importantly, no interceptions. The Bucs have only committed five team turnovers in their last five games — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the month of December. This team will be motivated to avenge a 34-29 loss in Atlanta back on October 14th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing with revenge. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 28 points. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. And while the Falcons have only allowed 24 combined points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. They did allow Taylor Heinicke to pass for 295 yards against them last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. Atlanta stays on the road for a second week where they are just 2-5 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Lastly, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay head coach Dirk Koetter will likely be fired tomorrow on the annual “Black Monday” in the NFL. Winston is motivated to make a final good impression on the team who needs to make a decision whether to tender him an offer sheet to keep him from becoming a free agent. Expect a spirited effort from the Buccaneers. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (318) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (320) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (319). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-12 loss at New England last Sunday as a 13.5-point underdog. Miami (7-8) has lost two in a row with their 17-7 upset loss at home to Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins are playing out the string with head coach Adam Gase and quarterback Ryan Tannehill likely to lose their jobs after this game. While both those individuals are competing for their next job, their lame duck statuses make this an uninspiring game for the rest of the roster and staff who are likely thinking about their offseason plans. That is not a good way for a team to end a season. As it is, Miami is just 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 games after a point spread loss — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in eight of their last nine games on the road after a point spread loss. The Dolphins are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. To compound matters, Miami has been a dreadful road team this season where they are 1-6 with an average losing margin of -14.0 PPG while being out-gained by -131.9 net YPG. The Dolphins are allowing their home hosts to score 31.1 PPG along with averaging 402.9 total YPG. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road. Furthermore, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Buffalo where they are scoring just 15.2 PPG. Tannehill has struggled in these contests as he is 0-4 in his last four starts at Buffalo while throwing only two touchdown passes and getting sacked 16 times. Unquestionably, the cold weather will bother this Miami team — they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. While they rank 30th in the NFL by averaging 294.2 total YPG, that number has dropped to just 262.7 total YPG over their last three games. The Dolphins defense also ranks 30th in the league by allowing 391.7 total YPG. Those abysmal numbers explain why Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 51 games in the last two weeks of the regular season, the Dolphins has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of these contests. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games after a loss where they covered the point spread as the underdog. And while that was the first point spread cover for the Bills in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. This Buffalo team sports an outstanding defense as they rank 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 298.7 total YPG — and that number drops to only 291.6 total YPG when playing at home. This team has plenty to play for as they want to use this game as a building block into next season behind their rookie quarterback Josh Allen. Head coach Sean McDermott is underrated — not only has he overseen the development of a strong defense but he also gets his team ready to play against divisional rivals. While Buffalo lacks offensive weapons, they are averaging 371.2 YPG in their six games against AFC East rivals which is over 80 YPG above their season average. The Bills also hold their divisional opponents to just 279.8 total YPG. Buffalo has also covered the point spread in 44 of their last 80 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Defensive lineman Kyle Williams has announced that he will retire after this game — and this added emotional element for this player who has served as the foundation of this defense for years should inspire his teammates to play hard so that he goes out a winner. The Bills will also be motivated by a 21-17 loss in Miami back on December 2nd. Buffalo is moving forward and will remain motivated to have a great game — while this Dolphins team looks to have already moved on. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (320) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (307) and the New England Patriots (308). THE SITUATION: New England (10-5) enters this game coming off their 24-12 win over Buffalo last Sunday. They need a victory to clinch the second seed in the AFC playoffs which gives them a first-round bye — and a loss by the Chiefs could put them in play to get the top seed in the AFC overall. New York (4-11) is playing out the string after they lost their second straight game as well as their eighth of their last nine contests after their 44-38 loss in overtime at home to Green Bay as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. New England did generate 390 yards of offense in that game — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. With the loss of wide receiver Josh Gordon and the apparent decline of tight end Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are focusing more on their ground game to burn time off the clock to keep their defense off the field. New England held the ball for 35:38 minutes in their win over the Bills. But over their last three games, the Patriots are scoring just 22.3 PPG. They say at home where they have held their seven visitors to just 18.6 PPG along with only 331.0 total YPG. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Bill Belichick’s team is also very stingy on defense against divisional rivals. AFC East opponents are scoring only 14.4 PPG while averaging just 308.8 total YPG against the Patriots this season. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals. And in their last 11 games in the month of December, the Patriots have played 9 of these games Under the Total. New York has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, the Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 35 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Furthermore, New York has played 6 straight games on the road Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Jets did allow the Packers to average 7.2 Yards-Per-Play against them — but they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. New York now goes back on the road to close out their season where they are scoring just 20.3 PPG while averaging a mere 258.9 total YPG. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has had his moments but he lacks weapons at the skill position — and that will make things very easy for a Belichick defense. The Jets have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. New York has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the November 25th meeting between these two teams that the Patriots won by a 27-13 score. The Jets have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by at least two touchdowns. These two teams have also played 5 straight games Under the Total. With New England wanting the victory before keeping Tom Brady and company healthy for the playoffs, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (307) and the New England Patriots (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (132) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (131). THE SITUATION: Oakland (3-11) has lost three of their last four games with their 30-16 loss at Cincinnati last week as a 3-point underdog. Denver (6-8) has lost two straight games with their 17-16 upset loss at home against Cleveland two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos have suffered two straight upset losses as their setback to the Browns was preceded by a 6-point loss at San Francisco as a 3-point road favorite in that game. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of the last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a point spread setback. The Broncos have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Denver is struggling to move the football with injuries to their offensive line impacting their rushing game. The Broncos are scoring just 18.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging only 301.7 Yards-Per-Game. The injuries are also piling up on the defensive side of the football. The lynchpin of their secondary, cornerback Chris Harris, was placed on Injured Reserve with a fibula injury and cornerback Isaac Yiadom is questionable tonight with a shoulder issue. Now Denver goes back on the road where they are 3-4 this season with an average losing margin of -26.8 net YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record overall — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against fellow AFC West opponents. The Broncos are also just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Oakland lost at Cincinnati last week despite out-gaining them in yardage while holding the Bengals to just 294 yards of offense. The Raiders held Cincinnati to just 3.97 Yards-Per-Play in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after holding their last opponent to no better than 4.0 YPP. Oakland is playing better football as of late as they defeated the Steelers while losing by just a touchdown at Kansas City to the Chiefs in their previous two games before their letdown against Bengals. They return home where they are scoring 24.8 PPG while averaging 403.3 total YPG which is much better than their 18.6 PPG and 343.9 YPG seasonal averages. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Oakland will also be motivated to avenge a 20-19 loss to the Broncos back on September 16th. Denver has nothing to play for having been eliminated from the playoff hunt — and it looks like head coach Vance Joseph is a lame duck who will be relieved of his duties on Black Monday next week. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Oakland Raiders (132) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (131) and the Oakland Raiders (132). THE SITUATION: Oakland (3-11) has lost three of their last four games with their 30-16 loss at Cincinnati last week as a 3-point underdog. Denver (6-8) has lost two straight games with their 17-16 upset loss at home against Cleveland two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, Denver has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. This team is struggling to move the ball down the stretch of the season as they are scoring just 18.0 PPG while averaging only 301.7 Yards-Per-Game. But their defense is keeping them in games as they are holding their opponents to just 15.7 PPG along with only 336.3 total YPG. The Broncos run defense has been quite good as of late as they are holding their opponents to just 79.6 rushing YPG over their last eight games along with only 3.84 Yards-Per-Carry. Denver goes back on the road where the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. The Broncos have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Denver has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of December. The Broncos have also seen the Under go 12-3-1 in their last 16 games against AFC opponents with the Under being 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against fellow AFC West foes. Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Raiders did hold the Bengals to just 123 passing yards in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Oakland returns home where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Raiders struggle against good pass rushes as the 48 sacks they have given up is the third most in the league. Denver is 7th in the NFL by producing sacks in 7.8% of their opponents passing plays. Oakland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents — and the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games played in the month of December. 

FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of the Broncos’ 20-19 victory over the Raiders back on September 16th. Oakland has played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge on their minds. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams who both have offenses that can struggle to score double-digits on any given game. 25* AFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (131) and the Oakland Raiders (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (129). THE SITUATION: Seattle (8-6) looks to rebound from their 26-23 upset loss in overtime at San Francisco last Sunday. Kansas City (11-3) looks to bounce-back from their 29-28 upset loss to the Los Angeles Chargers back on December 13th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINT(S): Seattle should respond to their upset loss last week with a strong effort tonight. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss. Furthermore, Seattle is 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 games after a straight-up loss in head coach Pete Carroll’s tenure — and this includes them covering the point spread in nine of their last thirteen games after a loss. The Seahawks did generate 168 rushing yards last week — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home where they are 4-2 this season while outscoring their opponents by +8.0 PPG — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home. Seattle is particularly a difficult place to play in prime time games as they have won outright sixteen of their last eighteen games at home played in prime time while averaging 29.1 PPG in those contests. Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown 35 touchdowns with just nine interceptions in those eighteen prime-time games at home. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spare in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Seattle is also 23-10-1 ATS in their last 34 games in the month of December under Carroll’s command. Kansas City is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after winning two of their last three contests. Defense remains a deep concern for this team after they allowed 407 yards to the Chargers last week with the complete inability to stop Philip Rivers in clutch situations. Kansas City is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to score 34.1 PPG along with averaging 455.1 total YPG. Running the football is another problem for this team since they cut Kareem Hunt. Spencer Ware is capable but he is listed as doubtful tonight with his shoulder injury. They managed only 60 rushing yards last week against the Chargers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game. And while KC has scored 26 points in all fourteen of their games this season, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Look for Seattle’s rushing attack to control the tempo and pace of this game while keeping Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense off the field. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (11-3) looks to bounce-back from their 29-28 upset loss to the Los Angeles Chargers back on December 13th. Seattle (8-6) looks to rebound from their 26-23 upset loss in overtime at San Francisco last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 4 straight games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, Kansas City has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a loss by 3 points or less to a fellow AFC West rival — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. The Chiefs have been basically unstoppable on offense when playing on the road. Kansas City averages 39.3 PPG while generating 459.6 total YPG when playing away from home. Perhaps the Chiefs are this prolific on offense because they have difficulty slowing down the offenses of the home teams. They are allowing their home hosts to score 34.1 PPG while averaging 455.1 total YPG. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been able to raise his level of play away from Arrowhead Stadium as his 28:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio of 28:6 along with a 9.47 Yards-Per-Attempt passing mark on the road are actually better than his 17:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 8.17 YPA at home this season. Kansas City has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total when playing a team with a winning record at home. The Chiefs have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Overs in the month of December. Seattle has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of December. They rushed for 168 yards in their loss to the 49ers — and they should find success with their rushing attack against this Chiefs’ defense that ranks 26th in the NFL in stopping the run. The Seahawks’ reliance on their ground game might be tempting some bettors to lead to them burning the clock which helps produce lower scoring games — but Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Seahawks average 27.2 PPG at home and they are scoring 29.0 PPG over their last three games. But Seattle allows their visitors to average 372.7 total YPH when playing at home. The Seahawks run defense has been faltering as of late with their last six opponents averaging 5.21 Yards-Per-Carry. Seattle has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of December.

FINAL TAKE: The Total of this game is the highest number for Week Sixteen. But with this likely to be a close game with both teams likely to score at least in the high-20s, look for this final score to reach the Over. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (128) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (127). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-2) has won their last two games with their 12-9 win at Carolina last Monday as a 6-point favorite. Pittsburgh (8-5-1) comes off their big 17-10 upset win at home over New England as a 2-point in the high-profile nationally televised spot during the second window of afternoon games last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing on Monday Night Football. Some observers are worried about the Saints offense that has scored only 12.0 PPG over their last three games. I think much of that can be explained by the fact that all three of those games were on the road — and this is a team that has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing their last two games on the road. Now New Orleans returns home where they are 5-1 with an average winning margin of +14.0 PPG due to an offense that scores 38.0 PPG on the field turf of the Superdome. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 30 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New Orleans also looks to run the ball a bit more on the road to win the Time of Possession battle and prepare themselves for a potentially challenging situation away from home in the playoffs. The Saints rushed for 155 yards last week against the Panthers — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. New Orleans defense has steadily improved this season. They have held their last five opponents to just 12.0 PPG along with only 278.0 total YPG. Pittsburgh may be due for a big emotional letdown after finally conquering their Moby Dick in the Patriots last week. The Steelers covered the point spread for the first time in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Pittsburgh gained 376 yards against the New England defense last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 9 games in the month of December, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have the best net point differential in the NFL right now. Don’t be surprised if their offense reawakens back in the Big Easy. 20* NFL Pittsburgh-New Orleans CBS-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (128) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (127).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (125) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (126). THE SITUATION: Chicago (10-4) has won seven of their last eight games with their 24-17 win over Green Bay last week as a 5.5-point favorite. San Francisco (4-10) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with their 26-23 win in overtime versus Seattle.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers were ripe to play the role of the spoiler last week after being humiliated by the Seahawks just two weeks prior in a 43-16 loss. But San Francisco has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. The Niners generated 351 yards of offense in that victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. This team stays at home for the third straight week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents. Chicago has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They should continue to build off their momentum after covering point spread expectations in two straight games. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Chicago defense will make things very difficult on 49ers’ quarterback Nate Mullens — they are allowing just 17.7 PPG over their last three games while holding these opponents to just 291.7 total YPG. Mullens has been a nice surprise for the Niners but he has been able to pad much of stats in garbage time when his team has been trailing by a bunch of points. Chicago also leads the NFL in takeaways so don’t be surprised if their defense creates some scoring opportunities. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of December.

FINAL TAKE: While we should always be wary of road favorites laying more than a field goal, the Niners are due for a letdown after their emotional win over a divisional rival. Chicago’s defense travels and remains consistent from week-to-week. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (125) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (119) and the Cleveland Browns (120). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (6-8) snapped their five-game losing streak last Sunday with their 30-16 win over Oakland as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (6-7-1) has won four of their last five games with their 17-16 upset win at Denver last Saturday as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and the Under is 19-9-1 in their last 29 games after a point spread win. Cincinnati has finally found some answers on the defensive side of the football. While they are still allowing 29.5 PPG along with 413.0 total YPG this season, they have allowed just 22.0 PPG over their last three games while limiting their opponents to just 315.3 total YPG. But this is a limited team on offense with Jeff Driskel under center for the injured Andy Dalton. The Bengals generated only 294 yards of offense against a suspect Raiders defense last week. Joe Mixon ran the ball 27 times for 129 yards which helped Cincinnati control the Time of Possession for 33:19 of that contest — and that will likely be the formula for success in this contest. The Bengals are averaging only 20.3 PPG over their last three contests while generating just 300.0 YPG over that span. Cincinnati goes back on the road where they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Under is also 15-7-1 in their last 23 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last  52 games in the month of December, the Under is 35-16-1. Cleveland some very good defense right now as they have held their last three opponents to just 21.7 PPG along with only 349.0 total YPG as compared to their 24.9 PPG and 401.1 total YPG averages for the season. They return home hewer they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Browns have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Under is also 39-11-2 in Cleveland’s last 52 games in the month of December.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the 35-20 victory for the Browns in Cincinnati back on November 25th. Expect the Bengals to play better on defense this time around. These two teams have played 5 straight Unders when playing in Cleveland. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (119) and the Cleveland Browns (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (102) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101). THE SITUATION: Dallas (8-6) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last week with their 23-0 loss at Indianapolis. Tampa Bay (5-9) has lost two straight games with their 20-12 loss at Indianapolis as an 8.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Dallas returns home where they are 6-1 this season with an average winning margin of +6.4 PPG. Dak Prescott has been outstanding when playing at home where he owns a 71.1% completion percentage while throwing 13 touchdown passes to just three interceptions. The Cowboys are almost perfectly balanced between the pass and the run at home as well given their 223 pass attempts and 222 rushing attempts at home this season. Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Their defense has also registered 23 sacks at home this season. Speaking of the Cowboys’ defense, they have held each of their last six opponents to below 25 points. Tampa Bay had been dynamic on offense for much of the season but they have only scored 26 combined points over their last two games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road — and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games are a straight-up loss. The Buccaneers were out-gained by the Ravens by -119 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after being out-gained by at least 100 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay managed only 85 rushing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Bucs allowed Baltimore to rush for 242 yards in that game — and they are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: A porous run defense is not a good characteristic to have when facing Ezekiel Elliott and this Cowboys offense. Quarterback Jameis Winston has lost his last thirteen starts on the road — and it looks unlikely he will be able to keep his team close in this one. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Dallas Cowboys (102) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (113) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (114). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-4) has won ten of their last eleven games with their 29-22 win in New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Philadelphia (7-7) has won three of their last four games with their 30-23 win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a +13.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

THE SITUATION: The Eagles found life last week behind Nick Foles as they pulled the shocking upset over the Rams. However, this remains a team ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football and I expect a big emotional letdown for the defending Super Bowl Champions. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Eagles were out-gained by 26 net yards to Los Angeles as they gave up 407 yards in that game but benefited from a +2 net turnover margin. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Eagles return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Houston (10-4) should build off their continued momentum after their bad 0-3 start as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Texans are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This team has outscored their last three opponents by +6.6 Points-Per-Game. Houston is 5-2 on the road this season — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles play an inspired game last week behind their Super Bowl MVP — but that effort may have said more about the problems with the Rams than it did about the possibility of another Philly resurgence behind Nick Foles. Look for Houston to pull the upset in this game — but take the points for some insurance. 25* NFL Non-Conference Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (113) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-6) has won four of their last five games with their 20-12 win over Tampa Bay as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (11-3) teaks the field again after their triumphant 29-28 upset win at Kansas City last Thursday where they were a +3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a win at home. With the switch to rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson under center, the Ravens have become very difficult to prepare for since they have moved to a run-oriented offense that is more akin to a college system than what any teams in the NFL operate. The Chargers do not have a player on their roster who can duplicate Lamar Jackson’s skill set in practice. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing since Jackson became the starting quarterback. The Ravens rushed for 242 yards last week against the Buccaneers which helped them control the football for 37:10 minutes of that game. Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. And while they out-rushed by Tampa Bay by +157 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after out-rushing their last opponent by at least +150 yards. Now the Ravens go back on the road where they are out-gaining their opponents by +74.6 net YPG. Baltimore is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they are also 18-7-4 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Los Angeles has gone from being under the radar to the hipster pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl after their high-profile victory over the Chiefs last week. But the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. But there are cracks in the armor for this group. The Los Angeles defense has allowed 26.3 PPG over their last three games which is 5.0 PPG higher than their season average. Their offense is averaging just 355.3 total YPG over those last three games as well which is almost 47 YPG below their season average. The Chargers return home where they have little native home field advantage playing in the smaller soccer stadium. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Baltimore defense and outstanding rushing attack should keep them in this contest. The Ravens have generated at least 198 rushing yards in five straight games. If the Chargers take a lead in this game, don’t be surprised if Baltimore then changes gears by turning to their Super Bowl-winning quarterback in Joe Flacco to attack the Chargers in the air. 10* NFL Baltimore-LA Chargers NFL Network Special with the Baltimore Ravens (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-6) has won four of their last five games with their 20-12 win over Tampa Bay as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (11-3) teaks the field again after their triumphant 29-28 upset win at Kansas City last Thursday where they were a +3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have seen the Under go 34-16-1 in their last 51 games after a straight-up win — and they have also played nine of their last eleven games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, Los Angeles has played five of their last seven games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 24 of their last 35 home games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chargers did gain 407 yards against the Chiefs defense — but the Under is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Despite their numbers last week, Los Angeles is averaging only 355.3 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests which is almost 47 YPG below their season average. The Chargers return home where they are holding their opponents to only 297.3 total YPG. LA has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Chargers have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the month of December. Baltimore has played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Baltimore boasts the best statistical defense in the league that is best in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 18.1 PPG and only 290.2 total YPG. The Ravens are 3rd in the NFL in both run and pass defense — so it is difficult to exploit a weakness. Over their last three games, Baltimore is only allowing 271.0 total YPG — and they have held four of their last five opponents to under 260 yards. But the Baltimore offense manages to score just 21.4 PPG on the road. Rookie Lamar Jackson is playing well as a dual-threat quarterback — but this will be the most challenging defense he has yet played in his young professional career. Jackson has yet to throw for 200 yards in a game so the Chargers may be able to make him one-dimensional. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on grass — and they have played 29 of their last 42 games Under the Total in the last two weeks of the regular season.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers employ the slowest pace on offense in the NFL — and with Malcolm Gordon returning to the field, expect this team to run the ball plenty against this stout Ravens defense. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing since Jackson has taken over at quarterback. This game sets up to be an old-fashioned battle at the line of scrimmage where both coaches will look to impose their will and tire the opposing defenses out. That is a great formula for the Under. 25* NFL Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (108) minus the points versus the Washington Redskins (107). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (8-6) has won three straight games with their 17-0 win at New York against the Giants last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite. Washington (7-7) snapped a four-game losing streak last week with their 16-13 upset win at Jacksonville as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Skins have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up victory. Their win over the Jaguars may speak more to the sorry state of that team than it does about themselves. Behind Cody Kessler at quarterback, Jacksonville managed only 20 passing yards — those 20 passing yards are not a typo. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after not allowing more than 100 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Skins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in their last contest — and they are just 7-18-3 ATS in their last 28 games after not allowing more than 14 points. This Washington team is ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football. They are using third and fourth stringers at the guard position at this point while relying on quarterback Josh Johnson who preparing to play in one of the new spring leagues before being picked up off the street. While he passed for 151 yards last week and added another 49 rushing yards, the Titans will benefit from the fresh tape on him after he has been out of the league for years. The Skins are scoring only 15.0 PPG over their last three contests while averaging just 256.0 YPG — and they are allowing 27.0 PPG along with 343.3 total YPG over that span. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a point spread victory. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. This Tennessee defense will be confident and licking their chops against this depleted Washington offense. The Titans allow only 17.0 PPG at home which has helped them win five of their six home games the season. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from the NFC. Lastly, the Titans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of December.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee should generate enough points in this game back on their home field to cover the double-digit point spread in this game. 10* NFL Washington-Tennessee NFL Network Special with the Tennessee Titans (108) minus the points versus the Washington Redskins (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (331) and the Carolina Panthers (332). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-7) has lost five straight games after their 26-20 upset loss at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (11-2) enters this game coming off a 28-14 win at Tampa Bay last week as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team is playing outstanding defense as of late as they have not allowed more than 17 points in five straight games. Over their last three games, New Orleans is allowing only 14.7 PPG along with just 317.7 total YPG. Their defense also travels as they hold their home hosts to only 19.9 PPG on the road this season. The Saints have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. But along with New Orleans continued improved play on defense has been a decline in the productivity of their offense. Over their last three games, the Saints are scoring only 23.0 PPG while averaging just 262.0 total YPG. Playing on grass tends to slow down the speed New Orleans has on offense that terrorizes opponents when playing on the field turf at home in the Superdome. The Saints have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass. Additionally, New Orleans has played 4 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have also played 5 straight games Under the Total again streams with a losing record. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Panthers only allowed 348 yards of offense to the Browns last week — but they allowed Cleveland to average 7.9 Yards-Per-Play. Carolina controlled the clock in that game as they were on offense for 33:50 minutes of that game — and they will certainly look to replicate that number tonight to keep the Saints’ offense off the field. The Panthers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The Carolina offense is scoring only 21.3 PPG over their last three games with quarterback Cam Newton limited on the types of throws he can deliver given a shoulder injury. The Panthers have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of December.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when facing off in Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (331) and the Carolina Panthers (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (332) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (331). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-7) has lost five straight games after their 26-20 upset loss at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (11-2) enters this game coming off a 28-14 win at Tampa Bay last week as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina has had this night circled on their calendar all season as it is their first opportunity to avenge being beaten three by the Saints last year. The Panthers lost both regular-season games to New Orleans before losing in the first round of the playoffs by a 31-26 score on the road in the Superdome. Carolina should play one of their best games of the season as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Panthers remain alive in the NFC playoff hunt but they must win this game tonight. Quarterback Cam Newton is not at full strength as he is dealing with a shoulder issue that is limiting his ability to throw longer passes. Yet going deeper into the numbers, it is the not offense that has been holding this team back. Carolina is averaging only 21.3 PPG in their last three games despite averaging a robust 437.7 Yards-Per-Game over that span — that is almost 60 YPG above their season average. The 393 yards they generated last week against the Browns was the lowest offensive output in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 375 yards in three straight games. The Panthers out-gained Cleveland last week by 50 yards — in fact, they have out-gained their last four opponents despite losing all four games on the scoreboard. Carolina’s run defense is playing quite well at this point of the season. Over their last three games, they are allowing only 60 rushing YPG while holding opposing rushers to just a 3.05 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Carolina returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games. New Orleans has covered the point spread in ten of their last eleven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 40 games after a win on the road against a fellow NFC South rival. Despite their continued success, the New Orleans offense has slowed down a bit as they are averaging only 23.0 PPG along with just 262.0 total YPG over their last three games. Opposing defenses are finding success by focusing on taking away Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in the passing game to make Drew Brees use his other less-talented passing targets. Defenses are also finding success by going into dime coverage on third down. These defensive adjustments are taking away the Saints explosiveness. Brees has passed for at least 200 yards just once in his last three games — and only six of his passes over those last three games have resulted in more than 20 yards. Lastly, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has been snake-bit during their losing streak — they are a better team than their losing record indicates. The Panthers should have a few tricks up their sleeve for this first opportunity to avenge their three losses to the Saints last season which defined their year. New Orleans may win this game — but it is difficult to defeat a divisional rival on the road by this many points that they are laying. 25* NFC South Game of the Year with the Carolina Panthers (332) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (330) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (329). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-7) looks to rebound from their 29-23 overtime loss in Dallas last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with their 15-6 loss in Chicago last Sunday night as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: I don’t like passing up the opportunity to take an underdog getting near two touchdowns — but I hate this situation for this Eagles team that lost their realistic chances to make the playoffs with that devastating loss to the Cowboys. This team is ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football leaving just a shell of last year’s Super Bowl team. Philadelphia’s defense will be without middle linebacker Jordan Hicks and cornerback Sidney Jones who are both out with a calf and hamstring injuries respectively. They join defensive end Derek Barnett, defensive tackle Tim Jernigan, linebackers Mychal Kendricks and Paul Worrilow, strong safety Rodney McLeod, and cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills who are already on Injured Reserve. As it is, the Eagles are surrendering 139.7 rushing YPG over their last five contests while allowing opposing rushers to average 6.06 Yards-Per-Carry. On offense, Carson Wentz will not play in this game as he deals with a sore back and will likely put on the shelf for the rest of the season. Philly will turn to last year’s Super Bowl Most Valuable Player in Nick Foles to be their quarterback — but without offensive coaches Frank Reich and John DeFilippo from last year, this team will be unlikely to come close to recapturing the magic from last year’s playoff run. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. It was a minor miracle that Philly was able to stay competitive against Dallas last week when considering that they surrendered 576 yards of offense while being out-gained by -320 yards. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 305 ads in their last game. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of December. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Rams rushed the ball only 13 times last week against the Bears for a mere 52 rushing yards — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Now Los Angeles returns home where they are a perfect 6-0 with an average winning margin of +10.5 PPG while out-gaining their opponents by +96.1 YPG. Jared Goff has struggled as of late — but returning home will help where he owns an 18:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 9.67 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Rams average 37.7 PPG at home — and their defense has allowed only 31 combined points in their last two games. LA has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The struggling reigning Super Bowl champions are catching the Rams on the wrong week. While I rarely like laying this many points in the NFL, the injuries this Eagles team has sustained makes the chances of a blowout likely. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (330) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (329). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Philadelphia Eagles (329) and the Los Angeles Rams (330). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-7) looks to rebound from their 29-23 overtime loss in Dallas last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with their 15-6 loss in Chicago last Sunday night as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Philly will be turning to Nick Foles at quarterback with Carson Wentz dealing with back issues and likely to be put on the shelf for the rest of this season with their playoff hopes likely dashed. Foles started the first two games of the season with the Eagles scoring only 19 combined points in those two games. Philadelphia will likely to commit to running the football considering that they have won all six of their games this season when they attempt at least 27 rushes. Running the football will also serve to protect their injury-riddled defense that surrendered 576 yards against the Cowboys. The Eagles have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 500 yards in their last game. Philadelphia stayed competitive last week despite only managing to gain 256 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after being out-gained by at least 100 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Rams will likely look to run the football as well after struggling to move the football in the colder weather in Chicago — Todd Gurley ran the ball only 11 times last week. Los Angeles also needs to do better with their run defense after allowing the Bears to rush for 194 yards last week. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Los Angeles returns home where they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Rams have also played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: With Los Angeles big favorites of almost two touchdowns, the Total remains in the low-50s for this game. With both teams running the football, expect this to be a lower-scoring game than expected. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between Philadelphia Eagles (329) and the Los Angeles Rams (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (327) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (328). THE SITUATION: New England (9-4) looks to bounce-back from being on the wrong end of the “Miracle in Miami” with their last second 34-33 loss to the Dolphins as a 9.5-point road favorite. Pittsburgh (7-5-1) has lost three straight games with their 24-21 loss in Oakland as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Steelers will be without running back James Connor again this week after he was downgraded to doubtful for this game. His absence (along with LeVeon Bell no longer being eligible to play for this team) cripples the Pittsburgh offense. In their three-game losing streak, the Steelers are only rushing the ball in 25% of their plays leaving them terribly imbalanced. They ran the ball only 19 times last week for a mere 40 rushing yards with Jaylen Samuels not able to be as effective as the main rushing back. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Over their last three games, they are scoring just 22.7 PPG — and their defense is giving up 27.0 PPG. Pittsburgh does return home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of December. New England has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in the month of December. This is a must-win game for both teams — but it is Bill Belichick who is more reliable in getting his team focused to bounce-back after a loss. The Patriots are 45-19-1 ATS in their last 65 games after a straight-up loss — and they are also 39-19-2 ATS in their last 60 games after a point spread loss. New England stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Over their last three games, the Patriots are scoring 28.0 PPG while averaging 463.3 total YPG — they are outscoring their last three opponents by +9.0 PPG while out-gaining them by +120.6 net YPG. New England has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Tom Brady owns the Steelers — he has led the Patriots to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with them while New England has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against them in Pittsburgh. In this important game for both teams off losses, expect both teams to stay true to form — and that means the Patriots play smart while the Steelers make costly mistakes. 20* NFL New England-Pittsburgh CBS-TV Special with the New England Patriots (327) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (325) and the San Francisco 49ers (326). THE SITUATION: Seattle (8-5) has won four straight games with their 21-7 win over Minnesota on Monday as a 3-point favorite. San Francisco (3-10) snapped their three-game losing streak last week with their 20-14 upset win over Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games. Seattle held the Vikings to just 77 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Seahawks are playing good defense as they are allowing only 16.7 PPG over their last three contests. Now they go on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total. Seattle has also played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. And in their last 6 road games when favored in the 3.5 to 7 point range, the Seahawks have played all 6 games Under the Total. San Francisco has lost nine of their last eleven games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight games. The 49ers have also failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Niners are scoring only 15.0 PPG over their last three contests. But San Francisco is playing good defense at home where they are holding their opponents to just 295.2 total YPG. The 49ers have played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. This is a rematch of Seattle’s 43-16 victory over the Niners two weeks ago — and San Fran has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with same season revenge.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 encounters in San Francisco Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams with the Niners serving as hosts. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (325) and the San Francisco 49ers (326). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (308) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (307). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-6-1) has lost two straight games after their 21-7 loss at Seattle on Monday as a 3-point underdog. Miami (7-6) enters this game still buzzing off the “miracle in Miami” where they scored on a last-second hook-and-ladder play to pull a 34-33 upset over New England as a 9.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should play well this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games after a straight-up loss. Their loss on Monday was preceded by a 24-10 loss in New England the previous week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two straight games by at least two touchdowns. Returning home will help where they are 4-2 while out-gaining their opponents by +91.1 net YPG. The Vikings hold their guests to just 19.3 PPG along with only 270.2 YPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 16  of their last 22 games on their home field. There should also be a better atmosphere on the sidelines after head coach Mike Zimmer fired offensive coordinator John DeFilippo and replaced him with Kevin Stefanski. DeFilippo was not a good personality fit with the demanding Zimmer who has a different philosophy. Stefanski is very highly regarded around the league and appears to be a better fit with Zimmer’s style. He takes over an offense for a team that has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games in the month of December. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after an upset win over a divisional rival. Furthermore, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games off a home game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Now the Dolphins go back on the road where they are 1-5 with an average losing margin of -12.3 PPG while being out-gained by -116.3 net YPG. Miami allows their home hosts to score 29.5 PPG while gaining 400.3 total YPG. Defense is a concern for this team as they have surrendered at least 377 yards in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 375 yards in four straight games. They are allowing 430.3 total YPG over their last three contests. And in their last 11 games on the road, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread 9 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have endured a difficult stretch of games but remain alive in the NFC playoff hunt. Look for them to take out their frustrations on an overachieving Dolphins team that is not very good when playing away from south beach. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (308) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (305) and the Denver Broncos (306). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-14 loss at San Francisco as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (5-7-1) has won three of their last four games with their 26-20 upset win at home over Carolina last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. And while Denver allowed 389 yards of offense in that game, they have then seen the Under go 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Broncos do return home where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. This team has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, Denver has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Cleveland needs to play better defense in the first half after allowing 17 and 23 points in the first thirty minutes of their last two games. The Browns have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after allowing at least 17 points in the first-half in two straight games. Cleveland has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Browns have also seen the Under go 38-11-2 in their last 51 games in the month of December — and this includes them playing seven of their last ten games Under the Total in December contests.

FINAL TAKE: Denver’s formula for success is running the football — and Cleveland has run the ball more than 50% of the time in three of their last four games. Both teams looking to run the football will shorten this game which should help produce a lower-scoring contest. 10* NFL Cleveland-Denver NFL Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (305) and the Denver Broncos (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-14 loss at San Francisco as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (5-7-1) has won three of their last four games with their 26-20 upset win at home over Carolina last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver was caught flat last week after winning three straight games and playing a 49ers team that will be missing the playoffs. But the Broncos have rebounded to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after suffering an upset loss on the road as the favorite. Denver had covered point spread expectations in their three previous games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after covering two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, returning home should help this team. They are playing outstanding run defense right now as they have held their last seven opponents to just a 3.58 Yards-Per-Carry mark song with only 72.7 rushing YPG. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. Cleveland may be due for a letdown after pulling the upset at home against the reeling Panthers. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. That game finished below the 47.5-point Total — but Cleveland has then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Browns have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Cleveland is flirting with danger having lost the turnover battle in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after suffering a -1 or worse turnover battle in two straight games. The Browns defense surrendered 393 yards to Carolina in their victory but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 108 rushing YPG while averaging 5.06 YPC — and those are scary numbers when facing this Broncos team that is 7th in the NFL by averaging 130.2 rushing YPG. Cleveland now plays their third game in their last four contests on the road where they are 1-5 this season while surrendering 29.0 PPG along with 412.2 total YPG. The Browns are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games on the road while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. And in their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Expect this Browns team to struggle in the high-altitude in Denver where the Broncos typically enjoy a significant home-field advantage. Both those teams remain technically alive in the playoff race — but it is Denver that has a more realistic chance of qualifying for the playoffs if they win their remaining games. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (303) minus the points versus the New York Jets (304). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 24-21 upset loss to Indianapolis last week where they were a 4-point favorite. New York (4-9) enters this Saturday game coming off a 27-23 upset victory at Buffalo as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston has rebounded to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less against a divisional rival. Now the Texans look to start another winning streak on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record at home. Houston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 42.5 to 49. The Texans need to tighten up on defense after allowing 409.7 total YPG over their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three contests. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up victory. The Jets pulled the upset over Buffalo despite being out-gained by -120 net yards in that contest. The New York offense is riddled with injuries with running back Isaiah Crowell going on IR with a foot injury and wide receiver Quincy Enunwa being declared out with an ankle. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold is left without much help at the skill positions. He has only passed for 300 yards once in his ten starts and his lead running back is now third-stringer Elijah McGuire. The Jets have scored only 20.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging a mere 288.7 total YPG. Against the Bills, New York only gained 78 rushing yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last contest. Their defense also surrendered 368 yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t love laying a touchdown with teams playing on the road — but the Texans will be dialed in for this game after suffering the upset at home last week. The Jets are facing a stiff uptick in competition this week with an angry Houston team as opposed to the Bills last week. 10* NFL Houston-NY Jets NFL Network Special with the Houston Texans (303) minus the points versus the New York Jets (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (303) and the New York Jets (304). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 24-21 upset loss to Indianapolis last week where they were a 4-point favorite. New York (4-9) enters this Saturday game coming off a 27-23 upset victory at Buffalo as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans’ offense stalled in that game as they generated only 315 yards at home against the Colts. Houston has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans did limit Indianapolis to just 50 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last game. Houston is 5th in the NFL by allowing only 88.2 rushing YPG — and they are holding their opponents to just a 3.35 Yards-Per-Carry average. Over their last three games, the Texans allowing only 18.0 PPG. Now after playing their last three games at home, Houston goes on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 7 points. Furthermore, the Texans have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 31 games played in the month of December, Houston has played 23 of these games Under the Total including nine of their last eleven. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory. Furthermore, the Jets have also played 22 of their last 32 home games Under the Total after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They did surrender 176 rushing yards to the Bills in that win — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The New York offense is riddled with injuries with running back Isaiah Crowell going on IR with a foot injury and wide receiver Quincy Enunwa being declared out with an ankle. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold is left without much help at the skill positions. He has only passed for 300 yards once in his ten starts and his lead running back is now third-stringer Elijah McGuire. The Jets have scored only 20.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging a mere 288.7 total YPG. Lastly, in their last 15 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored, New York has then played 10 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a low-scoring contest. The Jets’ offense was already limited before their rash of injuries. Houston has evolved into a run-first team to protect their offensive line (it is easier on that group to run block rather than offer pass protection). With the Texans on the road, they will lean even more on the road. 25* NFL Saturday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (303) and the New York Jets (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-3) has won three straight games as well as nine of their last ten games with their 26-21 win over Cincinnati as a 17-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (11-2) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-24 win in overtime against Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a victory at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least two straight games. The Chiefs stay at home on the short week giving them a nice situational advantage where they have won nine straight games. KC is 6-0 this season at home at Arrowhead Stadium while outscoring their visitors by +14.0 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Their defense has surrendered at least 24 points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread 6 straight games after allowing at least 24 points in three straight games. The Chiefs also gave up 198 rushing yards to the Ravens — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games against fellow AFC West opponents. Los Angeles is hit hard with injuries at running back with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler listed as doubtful for this game with injuries which will make it difficult for either of them to play on a short week. The team will likely depend on Northwestern rookie Justin Jackson as their lead back tonight. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games played in the month of December. The Chargers are an impressive 6-1 on the road this year but they are only out-gaining these opponents by +7.0 net YPG. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in their last 4 meetings with the Chiefs. They are playing with revenge from a 38-28 loss at home to Kansas City in the opening week of the season where they were installed as 3.5-point favorites. But the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 28 points.

FINAL TAKE: Look for the Chiefs to pull away in this game with the benefit of staying at home on this short week where they have been dominant this season. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-3) has won three straight games as well as nine of their last ten games with their 26-21 win over Cincinnati as a 17-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (11-2) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-24 win in overtime against Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning their last two games along with having played 7 straight games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games in a row. Los Angeles managed only 85 yards of rushing in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Chargers are hit hard with injuries at running back with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler listed as doubtful for this game with injuries which will make it difficult for either of them to play on a short week. The team will likely depend on Northwestern rookie Justin Jackson as their lead back tonight. Los Angeles will lean on their defense for this game that is holding their last three opponents to just 260.3 total YPG which has translated into only 20.3 PPG. Overall, the Chargers rank seventh in the NFL by allowing only 331.8 total YPG. They have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing in the month of December — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. Los Angeles has also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents. Kansas City is dealing with their own injuries on offense with running back Spencer Ware (replacing Kareem Hunt) and wide receiver Sammie Watkins both doubtful with injuries. The good news for the Chiefs is that it looks like the heart and soul of their defense in safety Eric Berry will make his debut this season after dealing with injuries all season. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home. The Chiefs did surrender 198 rushing yards in that game to the new-look Ravens rushing attack — but they have then played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Kansas City does play much better defense when playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium. They hold their visitors to 356.5 total YPG at home which is -53.1 net YPG below their season average — and they hold their guests to only 18.7 PPG at home as compared to the 33.7 PPG they surrender when playing on the road. The Chiefs have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have also played 11 of their last 15 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. And while the Chiefs have scored at least 26 points in all their games this season, they have then played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Kansas City has generated at least 441 yards of offense in their last three games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in three straight games. And while they have played their last three games Over the Total, the Chiefs have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Kansas City’s 38-28 victory as a 3.5-point road underdog in Week One of this season. In this rematch being played on a short week with both teams on their third-string running back from that initial game, expect a lower-scoring game this time around. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (134) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (133). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-5-1) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-10 loss at New England as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Seattle (7-5) has won three straight games with their 43-16 win over San Francisco as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory.  The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points. Seattle is clicking with a run-oriented offense. During their three-game winning streak, they are scoring 33.3 PPG — and they have scored at least 27 points in seven of their last eight games. Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown at least two touchdown passes in all eight of those games to complement their ground game that leads the NFL by averaging 148.8 rushing YPG. The Seahawks have allowed 454 and 476 yards in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games. Seattle stays at home this week where they are outscoring their opponents by +6.2 PPG — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their 5 games at home. The Seahawks are also 22-9-1 ATS in their last 32 games in the month of December. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. This team is struggling on offense with Kirk Cousins not being able to do enough (especially in Prime Time games) to overcome a struggling offensive line along with a less than 100% Stephon Diggs who is slowed by a knee injury. The Vikings are scoring only 18.0 PPG over their last three games while generating only 320.7 total YPG. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Minnesota has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. That is not a good sign when facing this Seahawks team that has not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Seattle. And in their last 9 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle certainly has the situational edge this week as they get to stay at home for the second-straight week while Minnesota travels west after a tough game on the east coast against the Patriots. These teams also seem to be moving in the opposite direction. Momentum along with home-field advantage should carry the Seahawks to a comfortable victory. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (134) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (133). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (133) and the Seattle Seahawks (134). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-5-1) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-10 loss at New England as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Seattle (7-5) has won three straight games with their 43-16 win over San Francisco as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings managed only 278 yards of offense on the road against the Patriots with Minnesota only being on offense for 26:39 minutes of that game. Head coach Mike Zimmer may fire his offensive coordinator mid-game if John DeFilippo does not have his team run the football more tonight after weeks of criticism on this front resulted in a mere 13 rushing attempts last week. The Vikings did run the ball 29 times two weeks ago in their 24-17 win over the Packers — Minnesota needs to embrace this mentality against the Seahawks or risk Seattle being on offense for more than 35 minutes of this game happily burning time off the clock while keeping their defense fresh. As it is, the Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots’ ability to control Time of Possession helped them rack of 471 yards of offense against the Vikings — but Minnesota has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings rank 6th in the NFL with a total defense that allows 327.8 total YPG. Moving forward, the Vikings have played 22 of their last 36 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. And in their last 4 games in the month of December, Minnesota has played all 4 of these games Under the Total. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in their last four games so the Vikings have to be concerned with that they have been able to do on offense. But the Seahawks have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Seattle has played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. Head coach Pete Carroll has to remain focused on protecting his young defense that gave up 454 yards of offense last week to a 49ers team that generated 386 of those yards in the air. The Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Moving forward, Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: In a game between two teams with playoff aspirations with head coaches with defensive backgrounds, expect a lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (133) and the Seattle Seahawks (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (120) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (119). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-1) has won three straight games with their 30-16 win at Detroit last week as a 10.5-point favorite. Chicago (8-4) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last week with their 30-27 upset loss in New York to the Giants as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago should respond with a strong effort in front of their home fans for this nationally-televised game. The Bears have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. Chicago did generate 376 yards of offense with quarterback Chase Daniels under center — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Starter Mitchell Trubisky is slated to return tonight after missing the last two weeks with his injured shoulder. Now this team returns home where they are 5-1 this season while outscoring their visitors by +11.5 PPG and out-gaining them by +94.0 net YPG. The Bears’ offense has been potent when playing at home in Soldier Field where they are scoring 31.0 PPG while averaging 385.3 total YPG. Chicago is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games as the underdog. Los Angeles is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win. And while the Rams have scored at least 30 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight games. It remains questionable if the Sean McVay offense will still click on all cylinders when playing in the expected temperatures in the 20s tonight. Quarterback Jared Goff is a California kid who has limited experience throwing the football in cold conditions. As it is, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the month of December. And in their last 7 games against fellow NFC opponents, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: The cold weather should play right into the hands of the Bears playing at home. Expect a close game where having the points with the underdog will be very valuable. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (120) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (119). Best of luck for us — Frank.