At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (10-4) has won four straight games with their 23-3 win over Denver last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Chicago (7-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week in their 21-13 loss at Green Bay as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home against an AFC West rival. Additionally, Kansas City has played 50 of their last 78 games Under the Total after winning three straight games. And while the Chiefs have covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 gamed Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Kansas City defense has been outstanding over their last four games since their bye week. The Chiefs are allowing only 9.3 PPG in their last four contests which is tops in the NFL — and they are giving up just 287.0 total YPG over those four games which is 5th best in the league. Kansas City is holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 62.6 Passer Rating which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in their last four games — and they have then played 49 of their last 80 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as the favorite. Chicago has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Bears have also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago did generate 415 total yards against the Packers — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has played better as of late — he averaged 299 passing yards per game over his last four games. But he has put up those numbers against the Detroit, NY Giants, Dallas, and Green Bay defenses so his improved stats should be put into the contest. Trubisky dropped back to throw 53 passes last week — and the Bears have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where they attempted at least 50 passes. Chicago returns home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. The Bears still have an elite level defense as they rank 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.1 PPG — and they rank 8th in the league by giving up just 324.8 total YPG. Chicago’s defense is even tougher at home where they are allowing just 17.1 PPG along with only 299.7 total YPG. The Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: It will be chilly tonight on the south of Chicago in Soldier Field with temperatures dropping to the mid-30s. The Bears have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total in December. Kansas City has played 4 straight games Under the Total in December. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 44-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 1-point favorite. San Francisco (11-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-22 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least 10 points as a home favorite. San Francisco has allowed 75 combined points over their last two games with injuries on defense playing a significant role in the decline of play on that side of the ball. Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander took away the heart and soul of that unit in his late-October season-ending injury. The 49ers have allowed 25.9 PPG over their last seven games after limiting their first seven opponents to a mere 11 PPG. They have picked off only one pass over those last seven games and they have managed only three sacks over their last three games. San Fran has seen their last two games finish Over the Total — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. The 49ers stay at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco has also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 35 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Now the Rams stay on the road where they have played 30 of their last 46 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Los Angeles offense has picked things up as of late as they are scoring 27.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 431.0 total YPG. The Rams have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog overall.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams will be looking to avenge a 20-7 loss at home to the 49ers back on October 13th. Todd Gurley did not play in that game which limited their ground attack as well as the credibility of their play-action passes. Los Angles has played 21 of their last 35 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points. 10* NFL LA Rams-San Francisco O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (451) and the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 44-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 1-point favorite. San Francisco (11-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-22 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles was embarrassed last week on the late window game on national television. They should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Rams have covered the point spread in 11 go their last 17 games after suffering an upset loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games after being upset this season. They need to get the ball to running back Todd Gurley more after he only rushed the ball 11 times last week. While Gurley seems to have lost his lateral speed, the Los Angeles offense has been at its most effective when they remained committed to running the football to better set up their play-action passing for quarterback Jared Goff. After experiencing a midseason slump, Goff has averaged 333.7 passing YPG over his last three games while tossing two touchdown passes in each contest. The Rams’ improvement this week needs to be on the other side of the football after surrendering 475 yards to the Cowboys while falling behind by a 28-7 score at halftime. The Los Angeles defense has not allowed more than 20 points in ten games this season so they should respond with a strong effort. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Surprisingly, LA has been a better road team this season after having a significantly better at home last year. In their six true home games, the Rams are 3-3 while being outscored by -3.9 PPG and outgained by -13.4 net YPG. In their eight games away from the Los Angeles, the Rams are 5-3 with an average winning margin of +6.2 PPG while winning the yardage battle by +69.1 net YPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. San Francisco is also looking to rebound from an upset loss — but injuries on defense have changed the dynamic of this team. Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander took away the heart and soul of that unit — and that group has suffered a string of injuries ever since that late-October season-ending injury. The 49ers have allowed 25.9 PPG over their last seven games after limiting their first seven opponents to a mere 11 PPG. They have picked off only one pass over those last seven games and they have managed only three sacks over their last three games. San Fran has allowed 75 combined points over their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight contests. The Niners have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. San Francisco stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, the 49ers are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games this season when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow NFC West foes — and they have a more important game on deck with Seattle next week that will likely determine the NFC West champion so they may be caught looking ahead. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against divisional opponents — and they will be motivated to avenge a 20-7 upset loss at home to the Niners back on October 13th as a 3-point favorite. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (456) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (455). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (7-7) has won four straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 38-17 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (9-5) has won three of their last four games with their 24-21 upset win at Tennessee last week as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans may be due for an emotional letdown on this short week after pulling off that big upset victory that was critical for their AFC South title aspirations. But Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after pulling off an upset victory over an AFC South foe. Furthermore, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a divisional rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Houston was outgained by the Titans by -58 net yards after surrendering 432 total yards. Defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed 27.0 PPG over their last three contests along with 423.7 total YPG which is -44.6 YPG worse than their season average that already ranked 28th in the league. This is not a good sign for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. And while Houston has allowed their last two opponents to average 7.24 and 6.65 Yards-Per-Play, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6 YPP. The Texans are unreliable as a favorite considering that they are being outgained in yardage overall this season. They are also being outscored and outgained on the road while being outscored and outgained in their last three contests despite winning two of those games. Seven of Houston’s victories this season have been decided by one scoring possession — and they have four net close wins decided by one possession. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. They are also just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games in December. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. The Buccaneers are significantly undermanned at wide receiver for this game with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out for this game. But in head coach Bruce Arians I trust when it comes to devising an offensive game plan with a week to prepare. Expect a creative use of tight ends and running backs in the passing game. The under-appreciated aspect of this Bucs team is the continuing improved play of their defense that ranks tops in the NFL by allowing only 73.3 rushing YPG under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Over their last three games, Tampa Bay is allowing only 21.0 PPG along with just 282.0 total YPG. This solid play on defense helps explain why the Bucs are outgaining their opponents by +50.0 net YPG this season. Of course, Winston’s turnovers tend to ruin the good work this team does in the yardage battle — but the Texans have only had three takeaways over their last five games. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when getting no more than 7 points as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December. While quarterback Jameis Winston has not been in many games that had playoff implications, he does seem to relish the role of playing the spoiler. Expect a close game where Tampa Bay has a late chance to pull the upset. 10* NFL Houston-Tampa Bay NFL Network Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (456) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (333) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (334). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-7) has lost three straight games with their 38-35 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (10-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 48-46 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Saints may have a hard time recovering from the physical and emotionally draining experience of that showdown with the 49ers last week — and facing another physical team with this Indianapolis team will be a tough test. As it is, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games coming off a loss at home in their last game. And while the Saints have won nine of their last eleven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Injuries are beginning to play a bigger role with this team. Not only is the offensive line banged up, but now they have lost defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins may be out for the rest of the season. The Saints stay at home where they are 5-2 in the Superdome but they are only outscoring their visitors by +2.5 net PPG. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in December. Indianapolis will be playing with desperation tonight to keep their playoff hopes alive — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Colts have allowed 69 combined points over their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games. Indianapolis is also 2-0-2 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The encouraging aspect of this team is they are finding success on offense despite being without wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (who is not likely to play tonight). Getting Marlon Mack at running back last week helped — and the Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Indianapolis stays on the road where they are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football. Look for Indianapolis to keep this game closer than expected. 10* NFL Indianapolis-New Orleans ESPN Special with the Indianapolis Colts (333) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-7) has lost three straight games with their 38-35 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (10-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 48-46 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While last week saw 94 combined points scored in a scoring fest between two NFC powers, history is not likely to repeat itself tonight back in the Big Easy. mNot only have the Saints played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game but they have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Drew Brees led an offense that generated 465 yard of offense — but New Orleans has then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they gained at least 400 yards. Furthermore, the Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points in their last contest. And while New Orleans has scored at least 26 points in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. The Saints offensive line is banged up right now so it may be difficult for them to continue to put up these big offensive numbers. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record overall, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Colts have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three games in a row. The Indianapolis game plan will be to run the football with a healthy Marlon Mack working behind their great offensive line with the goal of controlling possession and burning time off the clock. The Colts have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 12 of the last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total in December. With the Colts unlikely to have wide receiver T.Y. Hilton tonight with head coach Frank Reich claiming he would only play if he was 100% again, the Indianapolis offense will be limited and unlikely willing to try to get into a shootout after losing in a high-scoring game with the Buccaneers. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (321) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 24-17 loss at home to Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (8-5) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 23-17 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Buffalo should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss. And while the Bills could only manage 209 yards of offense against the tough Ravens’ defense, they are then 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Buffalo has a team that is built to play well on the road with their strong defense and good running game. The Bills are 2nd in the NFL by allowing just 16.3 PPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by holding their opponents to just 296.3 total YPG. Buffalo is also 5th in the NFL by averaging 135.3 rushing YPG. Buffalo is 5-1 on the road this season while outscoring their home hosts by +7.8 PPG. The Bills are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Buffalo has has six games decided by one scoring possession this season — they are 3-3 in those games. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has had nine games decided by one scoring possession where they have won six of those contests — so a double bad breaks going the other way and this could be a 6-7 football team. The Steelers are being outgained by -20.8 net YPG. Pittsburgh is getting it done despite having an anemic offense. Since Week 10, the Steelers are scoring only 16.6 PPG which is tied for 28th in the league during that span while averaging a mere 289.0 total YPG which is also 28th in the NFL. Even worse, Pittsburgh has turned the ball over 10 times since Week 10 which is tied for fourth worst during that span and their quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of just 74.5 in those games which is 29th. Rookie QB Devlin Hodges has been a gamer for this team — he completed 16 of 19 passes last week for 152 yards. But as the game tape grows on him, good defenses will begin to devise more specific game plans. Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott is one of the brightest defensive minds in the business — they held the juggernaut Baltimore offense led by likely league MVP Lamar Jackson to just 257 total yards last week. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a win by 6 points or less. And while Pittsburgh has responded from an 0-3 start with eight wins in their last ten games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning eight of their last ten contests. Furthermore, they managed only 135 net passing yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to pass for at least 150 net yards. The Steelers do expect to get running back James Conner back for this game but wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster has been downgraded to doubtful as he continues in the concussion protocol.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played five straight Unders with them winning five of their last six games decided by one scoring possession. Look for the Steelers good fortunes to run out tonight. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (321) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (321) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 24-17 loss at home to Baltimore as a 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (8-5) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 23-17 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: We bet numbers — and an Over/Under set in the mid-30s is simply too low in a game between two teams that is expected to be highly competitive between two potential playoff teams. The Steelers have played 34 of their last 54 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. And while the Bills are allowing only 16.3 PPG this season, Pittsburgh has played 30 of their last 45 home games Over the Total against teams who do not allow more than 17 PPG — and they have played 17 of their last 23 home games in the second half of the season against opponents not allowing more than 17 PPG. Furthermore, the Steelers have played 37 of their last 56 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 38 point range — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as the favorite. And while Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then played 16 of their last 23 home games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Additionally, the Steelers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning eight of their last ten games. And while Pittsburgh has played five straight Unders which has helped drive this betting number down, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing five straight Unders. The Steelers’ offense will get a jump start with the return of running back James Conner. Buffalo only managed 209 yards of offense last week while averaging just 3.37 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 29 of their last 51 games Over the Total after failing to average at least 4.0 YPP in their last game including playing four of these last six games Over the Total. Buffalo does average 23.0 PPG when playing on the road — and while that is not a huge number, it does look more impressive when confronting a Total below 40. The Bills are conservative on offense given their outstanding defense but they have scored at least 17 points in eleven of their games while reaching at least 20 points in seven of their contests.

FINAL TAKE: Because this is expected to be a close game, the scoring should continue to trickle in during all 60 minutes of this contest — and this logic is supported by an empirical angle that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. In games involving a team that has won at least three of their last four games now facing a team that has won at least four of their last five games have then finished Over the Total in 55 of these last 81 situations where these conditions applied. 10* NFL Buffalo-Pittsburgh NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (321) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (330) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (329). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-7) has lost three straight games after their 31-24 upset loss at Chicago back on December 5th where they were 3-point favorites. Los Angeles (8-5) has won two straight games as well as five of their last seven with their 28-12 win over Seattle as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas is being given zero respect by many bettors right now with the oddsmakers installing them as a 3-point favorite before bet down to a home underdog against this hot Rams team. Look for the Cowboys to respond with an inspired effort. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after dropping three of their last four contests. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And Dallas should benefit from the extra days off since playing that Thursday night game as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing on a Thursday night. The Cowboys did out gain the Bears by +26 net yards in that loss. In fact, Dallas has outgained each of their last nine opponents — and only New Orleans has won the yardage battle against them all season (by just 9 yards)! Perhaps the talent on this roster has been overrated — but the coaching and special teams on both sides of the ball in key circumstances have also let this team down. Despite losing their last three games, the Cowboys have outgained those opponents by +45.0 net YPG. This character certainly makes Dallas unreliable when laying points — but the flip side is that they do offer value as an underdog (especially if they will come close to winning the yardage battle). Not surprisingly then, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 38 home games as a dog getting up to 7 points. Look for Dallas to get their rushing attack going after they managed only 82 rushing yards on just 22 carries against the Bears. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards. While the Rams’ defense has been outstanding this season, they are only middling against the run by allowing 104.3 rushing YPG which is 12th in the league. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 contests after covering the point spread in three of their last four. Quarterback Jared Goff has played better as of late by leading his offense to average 303 passing YPG over their last three games — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 275 passing YPG over their last three contests. And while Los Angeles has averaged 502 total YPG in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 500 YPG in their last two contests. Furthermore, the Rams have only allowed 19 combined points over their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas will have the extra motivation to avenge last year’s loss in the playoffs in Los Angeles by a 30-22 score. The Cowboys host this rematch where despite being just 3-3 this season they are outscoring their guests by +7.5 PPG and outgaining them by +118.5 YPG. 10* NFL LA Rams-Dallas Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (330) plus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (329). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). THE SITUATION: Houston (8-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week at home against Denver in an embarrassing 38-24 loss despite being an 8-point underdog. Tennessee (8-5) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-21 win at Oakland as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston should respond with a strong effort this afternoon — they have not lost two straight games in their last twenty-seven contests. The Texans have been consistently reliable this season coming off a loss this season. They have won all four of their games after a defeat so far this season while averaging 28.3 PPG along with 409.8 total YPG fueled by a ground game that has averaged 130.3 rushing YPG in those contests. Houston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 ames after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss as a favorite laying at least 6 points. Additionally, the Texans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. And Houston has covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing a game on their home field. The Texans did end up outgaining the Broncos by 23 net yards but could not dig themselves out of the hole from their 31-3 halftime deficit. Houston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Tennessee has been one of the hottest teams in the league since Ryan Tannehill has taken over as the starting quarterback — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least three games in a row. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, Tennessee is just 16-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Tannehill was spectacular against the porous Raiders’ defense as he completed 21 of 27 passes for 391 yards while leading an offense that generated 552 total yards. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 350 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. But a concern for this team is their defense after they allowed Oakland to gain 355 yards. Tennessee is just 19th in the NFL this season by allowing 361.5 total YPG — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Opponents have found success in the passing game against this Titans defense that allows 259.9 passing YPG which is 25th in the NFL — and their secondary is banged up entering this game. Tennessee is also being outgained at home by -44.9 net YPG when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 16-33-1 ATS in their last 50 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Texans. And wide receiver Will Fuller is expected to play again for the Texans — and they have won eleven of their last fourteen games with a healthy fuller complement wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Expect a close game where Houston will be in a position to pull the upset. 25* AFC South Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (502) minus the points versus the New York Jets (501). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-2) has won nine straight games after their 24-17 win at Buffalo last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite. New York (5-8) has won four of their last five games with their 22-21 win at home against Miami last week as a 5-point favorite.

THE SITUATION: In theory, I don’t love laying all these points in an NFL game. However, in practice, NFL teams laying at least 14 points are 20-13 ATS in these last 33 situations since the start of the 2017-18 season with favorites laying at least two touchdowns this season being 6-3 ATS. This is the first favorite laying at least 14 points since Week 8 when Minnesota was laying around -16.5 points for a Thursday night game against Washington. We took the underdog Skins that night in the Vikings’ 19-9 victory — but I am taking the chalk in this game under these different circumstances. The Jets are a M*A*S*H unit with a whopping fifteen players on Injured Reserve or otherwise out for the rest of the season. Those missing players do not include safety Jamal Adams cornerback Brian Poole, defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, and tack Chuma Edoga who are four more starters declared out or doubtful for this game. This is bad news for a team that is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Jets now go back on the road where they are just 1-5 while scoring just 15.5 PPG and averaging a mere 239.7 total YPG. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Jets are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a double-digit underdog. And New York is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 18.2 PPG and 6th in the league by limiting their opponents to only 314.6 total YPG. The Ravens have also held their last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 253.7 total YPG. Baltimore’s defense starts with their outstanding secondary that might have become the best unit in the league with the midseason trade of cornerback Marcus Peters. Not only do strong cover skills help the pass rush, but it also gives defensive coordinator Wink Martindale the freedom to take more chances with the blitz. The Ravens lead the NFL by blitzing on 54.5% of the time — and now they face Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold tonight. In that Monday night game against the Patriots on October 21st when Darnold was caught on mic admitting he was seeing “ghosts” in the backfield against the Patriots blitz, he completed just 8 of 16 passes for only 66 yards with no touchdown passes and three interceptions when facing a blitz. For the season, Darnold ranks 30th of 32 quarterbacks with a 48.2 Passer Rating when facing the blitz. Defense is consistent on a week-to-week basis — and so are strong rushing attacks which is what this Baltimore team possesses behind Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram as they lead the NFL by averaging 200.8 rushing YPG. Perhaps this is why the Ravens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Baltimore returns home where they are 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +8.5 PPG. This team is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games under head coach John Harbaugh when playing on a Thursday night.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least seven games in a row. And while Baltimore has covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. 10* NFL NY Jets-Baltimore Fox-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (502) minus the points versus the New York Jets (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) has won four of their last five games with their 22-21 win at home against Miami last week as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (11-2) has won nine straight games after their 24-17 win at Buffalo last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Baltimore offense leads the NFL by scoring 33.1 PPG — but they have only averaged 22 PPG in their last two contests while generating just 270.4 total YPG. The Ravens have played two outstanding defenses in their last two games against San Francisco and then the Bills last week — but those defenses also provided a blueprint as to how to slow down Lamar Jackson and this unique Baltimore offense. For starters, defenses are having their athletic defensive ends play “cat-and-mouse” with Jackson to not overcommit in their actions to contain the speedy QB in the pocket and force him to pass or run for a shorter gain. Second, pass coverages deploying quarter-quarter-half schemes which are pushing Jackson’s passing options to one side of the field. Lastly, Buffalo began to commit earlier to shifting a few defenders to the other side of the field in response to the Baltimore Escort Motion where a tight end (or wide receiver) goes in motion to offer a run-blocker on the other side of the field. The problem with that Bills’ tactic of shifting defenders before the man-in-motion passes the center will be that the Ravens will eventually reverse that motion and catch defenders moving too quickly to the wrong side. However, I don’t think Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman wastes that wrinkle on the Jets tonight — so the Jets should have some success copy-catting this and these other new defensive strategies. As it is, New York has an outstanding run defense that is 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 78.8 rushing YPG — and they lead the league by holding opposing rushers to use 3.03 Yards-Per-Carry. The Ravens return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. While Jackson gets most of the attention, the Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 18.2 PPG and 6th in the league by limiting their opponents to only 314.6 total YPG. The Ravens have also held their last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 253.7 total YPG. The Bills passed for only 105 yards against them last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore’s defense starts with their outstanding secondary that might have become the best unit in the league with the midseason trade of cornerback Marcus Peters. Not only do strong cover skills help the pass rush, but it also gives defensive coordinator Wink Martindale the freedom to take more chances with the blitz. The Ravens lead the NFL by blitzing on 54.5% of the time — and now they face Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold tonight. In that Monday night game against the Patriots on October 21st when Darnold was caught on mic admitting he was seeing “ghosts” in the backfield against the Patriots blitz, he completed just 8 of 16 passes for only 66 yards with no touchdown passes and three interceptions when facing a blitz. For the season, Darnold ranks 30th of 32 quarterbacks with a 48.2 Passer Rating when facing the blitz. Darnold did complete 20 of 36 passes last week against the Dolphins for 270 yards — but the Jets have played 4 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now New York goes on the road where they are scoring just 15.5 PPG along with averaging just 239.7 total YPG. The Jets have played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New York’s defense does travel as they are holding their home hosts to just 308.8 total YPG. And in their last three games, the Jets are allowing only 15.3 PPG and just 282.2 total YPG. Additionally, New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t see the Jets scoring much tonight. Even if the Ravens put up a big number against this good New York defense, head coach John Harbaugh will likely call off the proverbial dogs early in this one with it being played on a short week. Jackson is not 100% with sore quads and getting him to the bench better takes advantage of the extra time off he will have before his next game. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (159) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (160). THE SITUATION: New York (2-10) has lost eight games in a row with their 31-13 loss at home to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-7) has lost three games in a row after their embarrassing 37-31 upset loss at Miami last week as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Eli Manning will be back under center for this game with rookie Daniel Jones out with an ankle injury. I expect Manning to be solid tonight and careful with the football after not playing for most of the year. The Giants have been a reliable road team relative to point spread expectations. New York has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Giants’ defense has also played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 317.0 total YPG. The Giants are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. The Eagles surrendered 409 yards of offense to the Dolphins last week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Philadelphia did gain 386 yards in the loss — but they have then failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Eagles are limited in what they can accomplish on offense with DeSean Jackson on Injured Reserve with his abdominal injury. They lack a credible vertical threat without Jackson which allows opposing defenses to cheat their strong safety into the box. Philadelphia is scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 328.3 total YPG. The Eagles return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will probably win this game — but the Giants should revel in the opportunity to play the role of spoiler. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL NY Giants-Philadelphia ESPN Special with the New York Giants (159) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). THE SITUATION: New York (2-10) has lost eight games in a row with their 31-13 loss at home to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-7) has lost three games in a row after their embarrassing 37-31 upset loss at Miami last week as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles should respond with a better effort tonight after that humiliating loss to the Dolphins — and their improved level of play will most likely translate on the defensive side of the football. Philadelphia had held their previous four opponents to no more than 17 points before allowing those 37 points to Miami. They also had not allowed more than 225 passing yards in five straight games before Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 351 yards against them last week. The Eagles have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game — and they gave played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where they both scored and allowed at least 30 points. Philadelphia has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. The Eagles return home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 270.5 total YPG which is the third lowest number at home in the NFL. Philadelphia has played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as the favorite. But while Philly should play better on defense, they are limited in what they can accomplish on offense with DeSean Jackson on Injured Reserve with his abdominal injury. The Eagles lack a credible vertical threat without Jackson which allows opposing defenses to cheat their strong safety into the box. Philadelphia is scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 328.3 total YPG. They have played a decisive 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New York will be turning to Eli Manning back under center tonight with rookie Daniel Jones out with his ankle injury. Remember, Manning lost his job in September given his declining throwing skills made his lack of mobility a significant liability. Manning will also be without the top two tight ends on the roster with Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison out with injuries tonight. This is not good news for an offense that has scored only 18.0 PPG while averaging just 286.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Giants’ defense has played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 317.0 total YPG. New York held the Packers to just 79 rushing yards last week — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, the Giants have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least eight of their last ten games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40% to 49% percentage in the second half of the season, New York has played all 6 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football Under the Total — and in their last 9 opportunities to host the Giants in Philadelphia, the game finished Under the Total 7 times. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (158). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-2) has won five games in a row with their 37-30 win over Minnesota as a 3-point favorite for Monday Night Football. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 34-7 win at Arizona last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Rams bounced-back from their embarrassing 45-6 loss at home to Baltimore by crushing the Cardinals — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in their last game. Arizona has the worst defense in the NFL by allowing 426.3 total YPG — and they have surrendered 482.7 total YPG over their last three games in what are Texas Tech-like numbers for rookie head coach Kliff Kingbury so I am not ready to read too much into the Rams’ offense after that effort. Remember, the Rams had averaged 10.7 PPG in their previous three games before that date while averaging a mere 270 YPG in those contests. So while QB Jared Goff completed 32 of 43 passes for 424 yards, it is telling that LA is then 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they are scoring just 19.4 PPG while averaging just 313.4 total YPG. Los Angeles is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after a home game where both teams scored at least 24 points including seven of these last nine situations. The Seahawks got it going with their ground game as they outrushed the Vikings by +140 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 75 yards. Seattle is a perfect 6-0 on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +6.8 net PPG. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 8 straight road games with the Total set in the 45 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams will be looking to avenge a 30-29 loss in Seattle back on October 3rd — but they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 58 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 10* NFL Seattle-LA Rams NBC-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (157) and the Los Angeles Rams (158). THE SITUATION: Seattle (10-2) has won five games in a row with their 37-30 win over Minnesota as a 3-point favorite for Monday Night Football. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games after their 34-7 win at Arizona last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It might be tempting for many bettors to take the Over in this game with the Over Machine that is the Seahawks facing a Rams team that put up 34 points in a rematch from a 30-29 scoring fest that Seattle pulled out back on October 3rd. The historical numbers for situations like this (too valuable to share) strongly suggest that these games most likely finish Under the Total. These circumstances are certainly helping us to get some value with the Under with the number creeping up in the high-40s still. Seattle enters this game on a short week — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. The Seahawks are playing increasingly better on the defensive side of the football — they have held their last three opponents to just 333.3 total YPG which is -35.6 net YPG below their season average. Seattle goes back on the road where they are allowing just 19.5 PPG. The Seahawks have played 25 of their last 41 road games Under the Total with the number at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number at 45.5 to 49. The Rams will want to run the football after rushing the ball 30 times last week for 132 yards in their blowout victory over the Cardinals. Head coach Sean McVay commented this week about not being an “idiot” by not feeding running back Todd Gurley the football (despite the loss in his lateral mobility with his arthritis). Los Angeles has run the ball at least 26 times in four of their last six games — and they have not so coincidentally played six of their last seven games Under the Total. But they will now be facing a Seattle defense that is 8th in the NFL by allowing just 99.6 rushing YPG. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They also held Arizona to just 74 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The LA defense is much improved after the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey which gave them an elite cover-corner. Over their last three games, the Rams have held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG along with only 315.0 total YPG. Los Angeles returns home where they are scoring only 19.4 PPG while averaging a mere 313.4 total YPG. The Rams have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. They also have played 29 of their last 43 games in December Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Ramsey did not play in the first meeting between these two teams — so his ability to bottleneck the Seahawks’ wide receiver Tyler Lockett as a deep threat from Russell Wilson. The Rams threw the ball in 49 of their 67 offensive plays in that opening game. I will be shocked if the skewed Run/Pass ratio will resemble that tonight. Look for LA to use their running game to burn time off the clock which is usually the Seahawks game plan as well (especially when they are playing on the road). The Rams have played 5 straight Unders when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (157) and the Los Angeles Rams (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (156) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (155). THE SITUATION: Oakland (6-6) has lost two straight games after their 40-9 loss at Kansas City last week as an 11-point underdog. Tennessee (7-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-17 win at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oakland has been outscored by a humiliating 74 to 12 margin over their last two games with trips to coach weather New York against the Jets before their trip to a chilly Kansas City last week. Perhaps the playoff talk for this team was premature — but this is still a hardworking and well-coached team. They should rebound with a stronger effort today as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. They did outgain the Chiefs last week by +73 net yards so that final score was much worse than the reality on the ground where a Kansas City interception return for a touchdown along with some big plays on offense made the difference. Now Oakland returns home to the Coliseum where they are 4-1 this season to begin a final two-game homestand before moving to Las Vegas next season. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. Oakland has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when getting 3 points or less. Tennessee has won five of their last six games behind quarterback Ryan Tannehill who has jumpstarted the offense — but this team looks primed for an emotional letdown after defeating an AFC South rival on the road. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They only gained 292 yards of offense last week against the Colts in a game where they were outgained by -99 net yards — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. They are also 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Now this team goes back on the road for just the third time in their last seven contests after playing four of their last six games in Nashville. UPDATE: Runnin back Josh Jacobs has been declared inactive for this game with his shoulder that now looks like he re-injured last week. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury for weeks that has not stopped him from playing. While disappointing, the Raiders remain a 25* play — Oakland has serviceable replacement level players at running back while this is a bounce-back situation for QB Derek Carr (and the Raiders defense) playing back at home after two bad games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is being outgained on the road by -20.0 YPG — and they are just 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 road games as the favorite. 25* AFC Underdog of the Year on the Oakland Raiders (156) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (147) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (148). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 31-17 loss to Tennessee last week as a 1-point underdog. Tampa Bay (5-7) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 28-11 win in Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis is just ravaged with injuries on offense with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton along with tight end Eric Ebron and running back Marlon Mack all on the shelf with injuries. There is no question that the Colts are limited with their skill position players to help out quarterback Jacoby Brissett. But even with those limitations last week, Brissett still completed 25 of 40 passes for 319 yards while leading an offense that generated 391 yards against the Titans defense. Indianapolis outgained Tennessee by +99 net yards. Look for head coach Frank Reich to inspire a big effort from his team to stop this losing streak in this winnable game. The Titans have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games. The Colts are also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 4 road games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has been consistently inconsistent this season as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 18 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Now this team returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. The Buccaneers are very unreliable when laying the points as well. Not only has Tampa Bay failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as the favorite but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games when laying the points.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers won the turnover battle against the Jaguars last week with a +3 net turnover margin — but that was the first time they had more takeaways than giveaways in seven games. Tampa Bay has turned the ball over 28 times this season for an ugly 2.3 turnovers per game margin with Jameis Winston throwing 20 interceptions this season. That Indy loss last week was their first loss this season decided more than 6 points. 20* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Indianapolis Colts (147) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (143) and the Minnesota Vikings (144). THE SITUATION: Detroit (3-8-1) has lost five games in a row with their 24-20 loss at home to Chicago on Thanksgiving as a 5.5-point underdog. Minnesota (8-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 37-30 loss at Seattle as a 3-point underdog on Sunday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. They did get a surprisingly good performance from undrafted rookie free agent David Blough at quarterback who completed 22 of 38 passes for 280 yards. But after Blough led the team to a 17-10 halftime lead, Detroit only scored a field goal in the second half with the Bears slowing down the Lions offense. Now this stout Vikings’ defense has had ten days to study the game tape of the former Purdue quarterback to dissect for this contest. Detroit gained 364 yards in that contest — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC North opponents — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. Minnesota will be looking to get back to playing outstanding defense after surrendering 444 yards of offense to the Seahawks last week. The Vikings have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now Minnesota returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 15.6 PPG along with only 331.4 total YPG. The Vikings have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, Minnesota has paled 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents. And in their last 9 games in December, the Vikings have played 7 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota won the first meeting between these two teams by a 42-30 sore as a 2.5-point favorite back on October 20th. Head coach Matt Patricia should dial-up some better schemes on defense for this rematch. These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 meetings Under the Total — and these two teams have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (143) and the Minnesota Vikings (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-7) has lost four games in a row with their 29-21 upset loss to Washington as a 10.5-point favorite last week. Atlanta (3-9) has lost two in a row with their 26-18 loss at home to New Orleans on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina fired their long-time head coach, Ron Rivera, this week in this lost season. Perry Fewell takes over as the interim head coach in a role he also served on an interim basis in Buffalo back in 2009. Scott Turner has also been elevated to the interim offensive coordinator with his father, Norv, installed as an assistant to the head coach. Now the everyone’s job on the line, look for an inspired effort from this Panthers’ team today — and they also will have an element of surprise with the changes that will come from the assistant coaching staff changes. Carolina has bounced back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while the Panthers surrendered 362 yards to the Skins last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Carolina has been a solid road team this season — they are 3-3 on the road while averaging a healthy 25.2 PPG. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, while Carolina has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Falcons are playing for next year with an offensive line that was not fixed in the offseason (albeit, injuries did not help). Atlanta has allowed 40 sacks this season after the Saints dropped Matt Ryan nine times last week. The Falcons are just 1-5 at home this season where they are scoring only 17.3 PPG while being outgained by -10.9 PPG. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as the favorite. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will also be motivated to avenge an ugly 29-3 upset loss at home to the Falcons as a 4.5-point favorite. The Panthers have covered the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 54 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NFC South Underdog of the Year with the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Chicago Bears (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-15 upset loss to Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite. Chicago (6-6) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 24-20 win at Detroit last Thursday on Thanksgiving Day as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. This is also a team that has lost the turnover battle in four straight games after not generating even one takeaway over that stretch. Dallas has then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a losing the turnover battle in their last game — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after suffering a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least four straight games. And while they have gained a healthy 418.7 total YPG over their last three contests, that has translated into just 19.7 PPG. Rookie offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is getting outfoxed by veteran defensive coordinators on big downs. The Red Zone success rate for scoring touchdowns in these last three games is just at 45.5% which represents a decline from their 54.8% touchdown success rate in the end zone for the season. Kicking woes are certainly playing a part in the malaise with this team after placekicker Brett Maher missed two gimme-field goals last week. Maher has missed five of his eleven field goal attempts from 30 to 49 yards which is the second-worst in the league. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 398.0 total YPG which is not nearly as impressive as their 27.7 PPG scoring mark at home where they also generate 468.1 total YPG. The defense remains very good for this team — they rank 8th in the NFL by allowing 19.7 PPG and by limiting their opponents to just 321.6 total YPG. The Dallas defense has been even better on the road where they hold their opponents to just 19.2 PPG along with only 294.7 total YPG. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed the Lions’ behind rookie quarterback David Blough to generate 364 yards last week, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Chicago ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 17.3 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up just 319.7 total YPG — and this team holds their visitors to just 16.0 PPG along with only 281.7 total YPG when playing at home. This unit should be up for the challenge tonight — while Dallas averages 25.8 PPG, the Bears have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 24 PPG. Chicago did gain 419 yards last week against a bad Lions defense — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team turns home where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They also have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total as a small underdog getting up to 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: The cold weather should play a role in slowing down both offenses that struggle in translating their drives into touchdowns. Dallas ranks 24th in the NFL in Yards-Per-Point with Chicago ranking 19th in that metric — and the Cowboys are 31st in the league in that metric over their last three games while the Bears rank 28th. Chicago has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Dallas-Chicago Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Chicago Bears (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: Chicago (6-6) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 24-20 win at Detroit last Thursday on Thanksgiving Day as a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-15 upset loss to Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: After starting the season with three straight wins by double-digits, the Cowboys have lost six of their last nine games. Frankly, if Dallas was going to step-up, the moment was last week at home against a solid Bills team. And they outplayed the Bills by winning the first-down battle by a 32 to 22 margin while outgaining them by +70 yards. Yet this team is finding ways to lose. Dallas has not forced a turnover in four straight games. And while they have gained a healthy 418.7 total YPG over their last three contests, that has translated into just 19.7 PPG. Rookie offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is getting outfoxed by veteran defensive coordinators on big downs. The Red Zone success rate for scoring touchdowns in these last three games is just at 45.5% which represents a decline from their 54.8% touchdown success rate in the end zone for the season. Kicking woes are certainly playing a part in the malaise with this team after placekicker Brett Maher missed two gimme-field goals last week. Maher has missed five of his eleven field goal attempts from 30 to 49 yards which is the second-worst in the league. Head coach Jason Garrett is clearly on the hot seat but perhaps the players are ready for a change. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 398.0 total YPG which is not nearly as impressive as their 27.7 PPG scoring mark at home where they also generate 468.1 total YPG. The Bears average only 281.8 total YPG — but Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games against teams who do not average more than 285 total YPG. And while the Cowboys surrendered 356 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The team got more bad news this week with their star linebacker, Leighton Vander Esch, declared out for tonight’s game with a neck injury. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on Thursday Night Football. This has also been an unreliable team in expected close games as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by up to 3 points. Chicago has gotten back to winning helped by facing a weak schedule — but that has given this team confidence. The Bears have then covered the point spread in 6 of the last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 6 points or less. Mitchell Trubisky has been playing with more confidence and verve as well as of late. Over his last four games, he has completed 94 of his 145 passes (65%) for 979 yards with eight TD passes and just four interceptions for a solid 91.1 Quarterback Rating. Over their last three games, the Bears are averaging 340.3 total YPG which is almost 60 YPG above their 281.8 total YPG season average. Just average production on offense will make a big difference for this team that is still playing outstanding defense. Chicago ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 17.3 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up just 319.7 total YPG — and this team holds their visitors to just 16.0 PPG along with only 281.7 total YPG when playing at home. This elite defense makes this team a very dangerous home dog — they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games at home while going 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games as the underdog. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 42.5 to 49. And while the Cowboys average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry, Chicago has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog getting up to a field goal. These are two playoff teams from last season who had deeper metrics that predicted the downturn we are now witnessing. However, Chicago is feeling a little better about themselves right now — and Dallas is a dome team favored on the road in cold weather with temperatures expected in the low-40s. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-2) has won four straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 17-9 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week. Minnesota (8-3) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-23 win over Denver at home as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by 6 points or less. Additionally, Minnesota has played 20 of their last 25 games on the road Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Ever since getting called out by wide receiver Adam Thielen for not being aggressive enough in the passing game, Kirk Cousins has been on fire. Since Week Five, Cousins is completing 73% of his passes with 18 touchdowns passes and just one interception. Those 18 TD passes are most in the NFL over that span and his 75 Quarterback Rating since Week Five is the fourth-best in the NFL. The Vikings are 6th in the NFL by averaging 378.6 total YPG — and they are generating 384.7 YPG when playing on the road. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row. But a concern for the Vikings as of late has been the play of their defense. over their last three games, Minnesota is allowing 24.3 PPG along with 404.7 total YPG which are +5.7 PPG and +66.1 YPG above their season average. Seattle has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Now the Seahawks return home where their defense has been surprisingly shaky. Seattle is allowing its visitors to score 29.2 PPG while averaging 385.8 total YPG. But behind Russell Wilson, the Seahawks are outscoring their opponents as they are 3rd in the NFL by averaging 385.4 total YPG — and they are scoring 26.8 PPG while generating 403.2 total YPG when playing at home. Seattle has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 7 points — and they have also played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Seahawks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing in Seattle. 10* NFL Minnesota-Seattle ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-2) has won four straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 17-9 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week. Minnesota (8-3) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-23 win over Denver at home as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: With Seattle being around a field goal favorite at home in this NFC showdown, I expect Russell Wilson to outduel Kirk Cousins. The Seahawks have won twenty of their last twenty-two games in Prime-Time. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Wilson is leading an offense that is 3rd in the league by averaging 385.4 total YPG. The Seahawks defense has been playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to 22.3 PPG along with 354.7 total YPG which is -1.6 PPG and -15.6 YPG below their season averages. This Seattle defense has also been more opportunistic as of late as well as they have forced sixteen turnovers over their last six games as well triggering eight takeaways in their last two games. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, Seattle has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in Weeks 10 through 13 of the regular season under head coach Pete Carroll — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 appearances on Monday Night Football. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Minnesota does have an elite roster — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Cousins has lost eight of his last twelve starts over the last two seasons against teams with a winning record as well. And despite their string of victories, there are some warning signs for this team. The offense is averaging just 331.0 total YPG over their last three games which is -47.6 net YPG below their season mark. The Vikings are also allowing 24.3 PPG along with 404.7 total YPG over those last three contests which are +5.7 PPG and +66.1 YPG above their season average.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 appearances on Monday Night Football — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. I am not standing in the way of that evidence. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (473) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (474). THE SITUATION: New England (10-1) has won their last two games after their 13-9 win over Dallas last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 20-17 win over Indianapolis two Thursdays ago as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The weather played a role for the Patriots gaining only 282 yards last week against the Cowboys. But the ability of Tom Brady to move the ball down the field should improve with Isaiah Wynn healthy again at left tackle. Wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett will be both be active for this game as well — and rookie first-round draft pick N’Keal Harry continues to get more involved with this offense after being injured for the first part of the season. New England has also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. The Patriots’ defense is leading the way for this team — that unit ranks number one in the NFL by allowing only 10.6 PPG and they are second in the league by giving up just 256.4 total YPG. New England goes back on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +16.3 PPG. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a close win at home by 3 points or less. The Texans outgained the Colts by +100 yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 100 yards. Houston stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Despite winning two of their last three games, the Texans have been outgained by -35.0 net YPG over that stretch. New England’s shutdown cornerback, Stephon Gilmore will likely neutralize Texans’ wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins — and while Will Fuller has played better as of late, the Patriots’ discipline on defense should contain him. This Houston team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans are just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in December. Look for Brady to do what it takes to outduel Deshaun Watson. 10* NFL New England-Houston NBC-TV Special with the New England Patriots (473) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). THE SITUATION: New England (10-1) has won their last two games after their 13-9 win over Dallas last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games after their 20-17 win over Indianapolis two Thursdays ago as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The New England offense is not operating close to peak levels right now with Tom Brady lacking reliable vertical targets. The Patriots are scoring only 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 307.3 total YPG. Remember that New England has scored six non-offensive touchdowns this season from their defense or special teams — so while they are scoring 27.3 PPG, that number drops 23.5 PPG when only accounting for offensive touchdowns. The Patriots’ defense is leading the way for this team — that unit ranks number one in the NFL by allowing only 10.6 PPG and they are second in the league by giving up just 256.4 total YPG. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans offense has slowed as of late as they are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging just 346.0 total YPG. New England’s shutdown cornerback, Stephon Gilmore will likely neutralize Texans’ wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins — and while Will Fuller has played better as of late, the Patriots’ discipline on defense should contain him. Houston does play better defense at home — they are holding their visitors to just 20.2 PPG along with only 325.0 total YPG. The Texans have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: In New England’s last 12 games in December, they have played 10 of these games Under the Total. And in the Texans’ last 11 games played in December, Houston has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Houston Texans (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (461) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (462). THE SITUATION: Oakland (6-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 34-3 upset loss in New York against the Jets as a 3.5-point favorite. Kansas City (7-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 win over the Chargers in Mexico City back on November 18th as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Andy Reid is renowned for his amazing 22-4 straight-up record after a bye week but he has led the Chiefs to a milder 5-3 record in his eight games coached after a bye week in Kansas City. More importantly for our purposes, the Chiefs are just 4-4 ATS in those 8 games after a bye week under Reid’s leadership — so we should not be scared off betting against this team simply because Reid has had more time to prepare. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when playing after a game on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs were outgained by -128 net yards to the Chargers due to their leaky defense allowing 438 yards in that game. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Oakland should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Oakland should have success running the football behind rookie phenom Josh Jacobs against this Chiefs’ defense that ranks 30th in the NFL by allowing 143.1 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders will also be looking to avenge a 28-10 loss to Kansas City back on September 15th. The Chiefs are just 2-2 at home this season where they are actually being outgained by -17.4 net YPG. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Oakland Raiders (461) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-5) has won five of their last six games with their 16-10 win in Cincinnati last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Cleveland (5-6) has won three straight games with their 41-24 win over Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: There is the old saying: “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.” A pissed off Mike Tomlin might come in a close second. The Pittsburgh head coach was seething after the Thursday night game back on November 14th between these two teams that ended with the ugly fight on the field that resulted in the Browns’ star defensive end Myles Garrett being suspended indefinitely for using his helmet as a weapon. The rough-house did not start then — Cleveland had already knocked out the Steelers’ top two wide receivers in that game with cheat shots to the helmet. The Browns beat-up Tomlin’s team before the final events of that game. And Tomlin will have his team ready to respond. I don’t quote players or coaches often in my Reports but here is Tomlin this week: “We love being in hot-button games. We love being in hotly contested AFC North games … To be quite honest with you, we're not a group that runs from these types of games. We're the type of group that runs to these types of games. We view it as an honor to be the consistent team in these battles.” Add into this volatile mix that the Steelers are a home underdog to the Browns for the first time since 1989 and Tomlin has a treasure trove of items to motivate his team. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. They also are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. Now they return home after playing their last two games on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Tomlin has also benched the ineffective Mason Rudolph at quarterback by tapping Devlin Hodges as the starter. Hodges is a gunslinger who broke FCS passing records at Samford before wowing coaches who have loved his moxie. It is hard to bench a high draft choice for an FCS guy — but Tomlin’s move in this situation speaks to his coaching staff’s confidence in his skills. In a previous start this season in a victory against the Chargers, the Pittsburgh offensive playbook seemed closer to the one Ben Roethlisberger uses as compared to the lack of a vertical passing game that has been a problem with Rudolph. Hodges completed 15 of 20 passes in the win over the Chargers — and he has completed 27 of his 40 passes this season for a 67.5% completion percentage while averaging a healthy 8.0 Yards-Per-Attempt for 318 passing yards. He has thrown only one interception this season. Injuries have hurt this team on the offensive side of the ball with wide receiver Juju Shuster now declared out for this game as he recovers from his concussion and running back James Conner not doubtful with his shoulder. But the Steelers did rush for 159 yards last week — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh is scoring 24.3 PPG in their six home games — and they are holding their visitors to just 17.8 PPG along with only 290.2 total YPG. This Steelers’ defense has developed into a top unit with the continued development of rookie linebacker Devin Bush and the midseason acquisition of cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick — they rank 6th in the league by allowing just 320.6 total YPG. Pittsburgh has held its last three opponents to only 14.3 PPG along with just 281.6 total YPG. Cleveland has been inconsistent this season with their talent on paper not matching their mental discipline nor leadership from their rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while Cleveland’s win over the Dolphins came on the heels of their victory over the Steelers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. The Browns gained 467 yards against Miami — but they are 13-30-1 ATS in their last 44 games after gaining at least 350 yards and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Browns go back on the road where they are just 2-3 while scoring only 19.6 PPG. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. This also remains a team that is just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings of these divisional rivals. Tomlin’s teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC North foes. And in the Steelers’ last 43 opportunities to avenge a loss where they scored no more than 14 points, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 29 of these games. 25* AFC North Underdog of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (310) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (309). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (9-2) has won their last two games after their 34-31 win over Carolina last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Atlanta (3-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-22 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. And while the Falcons surrendered 446 yards to the Buccaneers last week, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Falcons had found success after their bye week to begin the month by running back to running the football. In their upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina, Atlanta ran the ball 34 and 26 times. The Atlanta defense also started playing better when head coach Dan Quinn relinquished the defensive play-calling to his assistants while moving Rakeem Morris from offense back to defense (where he built his reputation that eventually got the head coaching gig in Tampa Bay) to coach the defensive backs while calling plays on 3rd down. The Falcons have held their last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG. The Falcons stay at home where they are scoring only 17.2 PPG. They will have Devonta Freeman available to run the football but Jones is a game-time decision at wide receiver. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on Thursday Night Football. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. The Saints remain banged up with their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat both out for this game. Remember that this New Orleans offense slowed down significantly last season when Armstead went down with an injury. New Orleans is averaging just 317.4 total YPG in their five games on the road which is -51.5 net YPG below their season average.

FINAL TAKE: This is the Saints’ fourth straight game against an NFC South opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least their last two games against a divisional rival. New Orleans will want to avenge their 26-9 loss at home to the Falcons back on November 10th — but Atlanta can play loose with the opportunity to play the role of spoiler once again to their arch rival. Expect a close game. 10* NFL New Orleans-Atlanta NBC-TV Special with Atlanta Falcons (310) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (9-2) has won their last two games after their 34-31 win over Carolina last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Atlanta (3-8) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-22 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while New Orleans averaged 418 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.33 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Unders after averaging at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The Saints will look to run the ball more in this rematch of their 26-9 upset loss at home to Atlanta back on November 10th. New Orleans only ran the ball 11 times in that game with Drew Brees since commenting that the offense needs more balance this time around. Running the ball will not only burn more time off the clock but it will help the Saints defense that surrendered more than 300 yards offense in that game for the first time in five contests. New Orleans then gave up 351 yards last week to the Panthers — but the Saints have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for the New Orleans defense is that they will get cornerback Marshon Lattimore who has missed the last few games since being injured in that first encounter with the Falcons where he exited the game holding Julio Jones without a catch. He will help a defense that still ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing 321.3 total YPG. But the Saints remain banged up with their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and left guard Andrus Peat both out for this game. Remember that this New Orleans offense slowed down significantly last season when Armstead went down with an injury. New Orleans is averaging just 317.4 total YPG in their five games on the road which is -51.5 net YPG below their season average. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Falcons had found success after their bye week to begin the month by running back to running the football. In their upset wins over New Orleans and Carolina, Atlanta ran the ball 34 and 26 times. The Atlanta defense also started playing better when head coach Dan Quinn relinquished the defensive play-calling to his assistants while moving Rakeem Morris from offense back to defense (where he built his reputation that eventually got the head coaching gig in Tampa Bay) to coach the defensive backs while calling plays on 3rd down. The Falcons have held their last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Atlanta did allow 446 yards last week to the Bucs, they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Falcons stay at home where they are scoring only 17.2 PPG. They will have Devonta Freeman available to run the football but Jones is a game-time decision at wide receiver. Atlanta has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Falcons have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Atlanta. The Under is also 7-0-1 in the Saints’ last 8 games played on a Thursday — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 games played on Thursdays. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (309) and the Atlanta Falcons (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 13-9 loss in New England on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Buffalo (8-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 20-3 win over Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas is feeling the heat this week with owner (and general manager!) Jerry Jones making his frustration with the coaching of Jason Garrett after the loss to the Patriots last week. Expect this team to play with a sense of urgency in this game. Many pundits have noted that the Cowboys are 0-4 this season in their four games against teams with a winning record. However, these “experts” are not observing that Dallas has actually outgained these four winning teams by +84.2 net YPG. The Cowboys outgained the Patriots last week by +39 net yards. Dallas also outgained Minnesota by +228 net yards while winning the yardage battle with Green Bay by +230 net yards. New Orleans is the only one of the four winning teams that the Cowboys have faced that outgained them in yardage — and they only managed to so so by 9 yards. Put another way, if a pundit’s hot take this week had been that Dallas is averaging 396 total YPG against teams with a winning record while holding these winning teams to just 311.8 total YPG, then taking the Cowboys would start to look pretty, pretty, pretty good (to quote Larry David). Garrett’s in-play decision-making is probably not helping matters. Dallas also has the worst Special Teams unit as measured by Football Outsiders (for what that is worth). But they are hosting a Bills team that FO ranks only at 26th in Special Teams this season. Frankly, I suspect Dallas’ 0-4 record versus teams with a winning record speaks largely to some bad luck that is due for regression. The Cowboys have played their last two games on the road — and now they return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net YPG while outgaining these opponents by +128.6 net YPG. Dallas’ offense has been tough to stop at home where they are scoring 30.2 PPG while averaging 475.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in November. And it is not as if these Bills are battle-tested. Buffalo has only faced one team with a winning record — and they lost to the Patriots at home by a 16-10 score. So the Bills are scoring only 21.0 PPG while averaging 352.7 total YPG — ranking 21st and 18th in the NFL — despite playing ten of eleven teams that do not have winning records. This lack of quality of competition puts the development of quarterback Josh Allen in his second season into a bleaker perspective. Buffalo did outgain the Broncos on the ground last week by 145 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +150 yards. The Bills win last week came on the heels of their 37-20 win in Miami the previous week as a touchdown favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two straight games where they also covered the point spread as the favorite. This is a challenging situation for this team to be plashing their third game in eighteen days on the road on a short week of rest and preparation. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Thursday. And in their last 13 games played with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 times.

FINAL TAKE: Having watched Dak Prescott a bunch this season, I have been impressed — he passes my “eyeball test” when it comes to whether Dallas should sign him to a long-term deal. The Cowboys are more desperate and have the better quarterback — look for them to secure a decisive win at home. 25* NFL Thursday Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (315) and the Detroit Lions (316). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-6) enters this game coming off a 19-14 win over the New York Giants on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Detroit (3-7-1) has lost four straight games with their 19-16 upset loss at Washington as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: With Matthew Stafford possibly out the season with his hip injury and backup, Jeff Driskel, dealing with a bad hamstring injury he suffered last week, the Lions will be starting rookie David Blough at quarterback for this game. Blough was a part-time starter last year for Purdue who was drafted by Cleveland before being traded to Detroit in late August. Blough has not played a down in a regular-season game yet. Driskel is available as the backup but tight end Logan Thomas will be the emergency QB if something happens to Blough and Driskel is unavailable. This is yet the next disaster for a disastrous franchise that has signed and cut six other quarterbacks in 2019. It is not just the utter failure of this regime under general manager Bob Quinn to identify and develop backup talent quarterback behind Stafford, it is that they are relying on guys like Driskell and now Blough who did not have the benefit of training camp. Then again, maybe that would not have helped much — the football culture in Detroit is the polar opposite of the one in New England where Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia were imported (because they had once been in the same rook as Bill Belichick). The Lions are also dealing with below replacement level talent at running back after the injury to Kerryon Johnson. They did manage 364 yards last week against the hapless Skins in that losing effort — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Detroit defense has been playing better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 321.7 total YPG which is -74.5 net YPG below their season average. But the Lions are scoring just 18.7 PPG in those three games before relying today on the guy who could not beat out Elijah Sindelar for the starting gig at Purdue last year. Detroit has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. And while they have not covered the point spread in six straight contests, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in at least five straight games. Additionally, the Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games against fellow opponents from the NFC North, Detroit has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Chicago has played 6 straight games Under the Total against divisional opponents. The Bears have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chicago offense is also a mess under the regressing Mitchell Trubisky — they are scoring only 15.3 PPG while averaging 276.0 total YPG over their last three games. But the Bears defense has stepped up in their last three games by allowing just 14.7 PPG along with only 294.0 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Bears go on the road where they are scoring just 17.8 PPG along with averaging 247.6 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 5 games in November, the Bears have played all 5 games Under the Total. Furthermore, while Chicago has lost five of their last seven games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total after the Bears won the first meeting between these two teams on November 12th by a 20-13 score. With this game being played on a short week with an early afternoon start, expect lots of stalled drives and mostly field goal attempts. Even with the low number, take the Under. 10* NFL Chicago-Detroit Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (315) and the Detroit Lions (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Los Angeles Rams (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-2) has won six straight games with their 41-7 win over Houston at home last week as a 4-point favorite. Los Angeles (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 17-7 win over Chicago last Sunday as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning their last game by at least two touchdowns. Their win over the Texans came on the heels of a 49-13 win at Cincinnati — and Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least three touchdowns. Furthermore, the Ravens have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite. With Baltimore averaging 42.3 PPG over their last three games, it is certainly very tempting to expect another higher-scoring game from them tonight. But the Ravens have played 31 of their last 45 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in two straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. While Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense is getting most of the attention, the Ravens’ defense has been playing quite well as of late. Baltimore has held its last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 293.7 total YPG. The Ravens have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Rams are scoring 24.3 PPG, Baltimore has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams that score at least 24 PPG. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a points spread victory. Head coach Sean McVay has begun to change the identity of his offense to rely more heavily on his rushing attack. Los Angeles has averaged 30 rushing attempts over their last four games. This will likely continue to be the strategy tonight to keep Jackson off the field for the Ravens. The Rams have held their last three opponents to just 11.3 PPG along with only 313.7 total YPG. The acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey has certainly helped this talented unit play even better. Ramsey will have the assignment of blanketing the Ravens’ Marquise Brown which will likely eliminate the Baltimore deep passing attack. Led by Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has an outstanding run defense that ranks 4th in the league by allowing only 89.1 rushing YPG. The Bears only ran for 74 yards last week — and the Rams have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Los Angeles stays at home this week where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: While the Ravens lead the NFL by scoring 34.1 PPG, the Rams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 27 PPG. And while Baltimore averages 24.3 first downs per game along with controlling the clock for 34.36 minutes per game, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 32 Minutes Per Game while gaining at least 21 first downs per game. 10* NFL Baltimore-LA Rams ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Los Angeles Rams (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 17-7 win over Chicago last Sunday as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (8-2) has won six straight games with their 41-7 win over Houston at home last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a handicapper play tonight — with the public and the so-called “sharps” on the side of the Ravens, this appears to be a situation where taking the contrarian route will prove to be fruitful. Los Angeles has been playing better football as of late. They have outscored their last three opponents by +6.0 PPG while outgaining these foes by +39.3 net YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The conventional wisdom on the Rams has been their play-action offense has been slowed down since the tail end of last season when defenses started playing 6-1 fronts. But head coach Sean McVay has begun to change the identity of his offense to rely more heavily on his rushing attack. Los Angeles has averaged 30 rushing attempts over their last four games. A commitment to running the football has many non-tangible advantages (that continue to elude the football analytics community). Run-blocking is an easier skill to accomplish — so more running helps to put a struggling offensive line in a better position to succeed. With two second-year players entering the starting lineup this season, the play of the offensive line has been an issue. More running of the football also decreased the pressure and expectations on quarterback Jared Goff. During their three-game losing streak earlier in the season, Goff attempted a combined 117 passes in losses to Tampa Bay and Seattle — and that was simply asking too much of this quarterback. Running the football also burns time off the clock which keeps the team’s defense rested. The Rams have held their last three opponents to just 11.3 PPG along with only 313.7 total YPG. The acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey has certainly helped this talented unit play even better. Ramsey will have the assignment of blanketing the Ravens’ Marquise Brown which will likely eliminate the Baltimore deep passing attack. Led by Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has an outstanding run defense that ranks 4th in the league by allowing only 89.1 rushing YPG. The Bears only ran for 74 yards last week — and the Rams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Goff will benefit from the return of wide receiver Robert Woods who missed the last few games due to personal issues. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has also been upgraded to probable after getting cleared from the concussion protocol. Moving forward, the Rams have lost the turnover battle in two straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after having -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. Baltimore has looked invincible as of late with wins over Seattle and New England followed up by 36 and 34 point blowout victories over their last two games. The Ravens have covered the point spread in their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Baltimore had a 28-10 halftime lead over Cincinnati two weeks ago before taking a 14-0 halftime lead over the Texans last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after having double-digit halftime leads in two straight games. The Ravens dominated Houston last week by generating 25 first downs while holding the ball for 36:19 minutes and totaling 491 yards of offense. But Baltimore has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 24 first downs. The Ravens also held the Texans to just 110 passing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore has been vulnerable against opposing passing attacks as they are allowing 238.8 passing YPG which is 17th in the NFL. And while Baltimore has only allowed 20 combined points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their last two opponents to 14 or fewer points.

FINAL TAKE: While the Rams have not looked as formidable this season as they did last year in making their Super Bowl run, they still are loaded with talent on both sides of the football. And they have plenty of big-game experience. Look for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to dial-up a scheme that slows down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the San Francisco 49ers (272). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-2) has won five of their last six games with their 24-16 win over Carolina two Sundays ago where they were 5-point favorites. San Francisco (9-1) looks to build on their 36-26 win at home over Arizona last Sunday where they were 10-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have seen at least 51 combined points scored in three straight games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. San Francisco misses the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander who suffered a season-ending chest injury at the beginning of the month. The Niners have allowed 26.0 PPG over their last three games which is over 10 PPG above their 15.5 PPG season average. San Francisco looks like they will be in decent shape tonight on the other side of the ball with both tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel healthy enough to play. Although Jimmy Garoppolo continues to improve after completing 34 of 45 passes for 424 yards with four TD passes last week against the Cardinals even without those weapons. The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They should have tons of success running the ball again this Packers defense that is allowing 126.9 rushing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. The problem for this Green Bay defense is they play a Wide-Nine technique that puts tons of pressure on their interior linemen who struggle to hold the line of scrimmage. Those defensive tackles are vulnerable to double-teams — and their Wide-Nine spaces out defenders who could come in to help. The Packers are allowing 4 Yards-Per-Carry on both 1st and 2nd downs which is setting up effective play-action pass opportunities. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in Tackles-For-Loss. San Francisco should have great success running the football as they rank 2nd in the league by averaging 149.0 rushing YPG. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. San Francisco has also played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as the favorite. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have also played 18 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing their last game at home. And while the Packers have played two straight Unders, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Packers did give up 401 total yards against the Panthers — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has also allowed their four home hosts to average 399.0 total YPG — that helps explain why they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total on the road. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Over the Total. In an expected close game, look for a back-and-forth game that will finish above the number. 10* NFL Green Bay-San Francisco NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the San Francisco 49ers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-1) looks to build on their 36-26 win at home over Arizona last Sunday where they were 10-point favorites. Green Bay (8-2) has won five of their last six games with their 24-16 win over Carolina two Sundays ago where they were 5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: It is foolish to finish handicapping many of these NFL games without first getting the final M*A*S*H* unit reports for both teams. Philadelphia was tempting to me this afternoon — but they simply lacked the reliable healthy targets on offense to make that a worthwhile play even with the avalanche of public money going on the Seahawks. San Francisco looks like they will be in decent shape tonight with both tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel healthy enough to play. Although Jimmy Garoppolo continues to improve after completing 34 of 45 passes for 424 yards with four TD passes last week against the Cardinals even without those weapons. The 49ers will look to run the ball more tonight after they attempted only 19 rushes for 34 yards last week. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last contest. They should have tons of success running the ball again this Packers defense that is allowing 126.9 rushing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. The problem for this Green Bay defense is they play a Wide-Nine technique that puts tons of pressure on their interior linemen who struggle to hold the line of scrimmage. Those defensive tackles are vulnerable to double-teams — and their Wide-Nine spaces out defenders who could come in to help. The Packers are allowing 4 Yards-Per-Carry on both 1st and 2nd downs which is setting up effective play-action pass opportunities. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in Tackles-For-Loss. San Francisco should have great success running the football as they rank 2nd in the league by averaging 149.0 rushing YPG. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they enjoy a situational advantage by playing at home for their third straight week. The Niners are 4-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +14.4 net PPG due to their stifling defense that limits their guests to just 17.8 PPG along with only 250.2 total YPG. Green Bay is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a bye week. This team traveled just yesterday to the west coast from Milwaukee with head coach Matt Nagy not trusting his players to not party all night as they did in their trip to Los Angeles where they preceded to lay an egg against the Chargers. Don’t be surprised if this team struggles with jet lag. More importantly, one of the reasons we took the Chargers in that game three weeks ago was that the underlying members are not great for this team cruising with just two losses. Five of their wins are by one scoring possession — and the Packers are actually being outgained this season by -18.7 net YPG which usually translates into a 4-6 record after ten games. And while Green Bay is 3-1 on the road, they are being outgained by a whopping 399 to 276.5 yardage margin in those four games. Furthermore, the Packers are being outgained by 78.0 net YPG over their last three contests. Somehow this team continues to win despite leading the league with 2 false starts on offense.

FINAL TAKE: The challenging travel arrangements for the Packers compounds the fact that this is the team’s fourth road game in their last five games. That is not a good sign for a team that faces an opponent that will look to out-muscle them in the trenches. Green Bay is also just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games in November. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (269) and the New England Patriots (270). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-4) has won three of their last four games after their 35-27 win in Detroit last week as a 7.5-point favorite against the Lions. New England (9-1) returns home after playing their last two games on the road which culminated in a 17-10 win at Philadelphia last week as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have now covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after covering point spread expectations in three of their last four games. Dallas has been an Over machine this season having played three straight Overs as well as in seven of their ten games this season. But these higher scoring games may be, in some part, reflective of their soft schedule that has featured only three teams with a winning record. The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Dallas has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7 points or less. Additionally, while the Patriots are holding their opponents to just 4.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Cowboys have then played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total when facing a defense that is not allowing more than 5.2 YPA. Dallas has averaged 6.42 and then 7.27 YPP in their last two games — but they have then played 22 of the last 31 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 6 YPP in two straight games. The Cowboys have an underrated defense that is 7th in the NFL by allowing only 19.7 PPG and just 322.1 total YPG. And while the Patriots only average 1.0 Turnovers-Per-Game, Dallas has played 8 straight road games Under the Total against teams that do not average more than 1.0 Turnovers-Per-Game. New England has now covered the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Patriots’ offensive numbers are propped up a bit with their combination of five defensive and special teams touchdowns. The offense lacks a deep threat — and they will be undermanned with wide receiver Phillip Dorsett out and Mohamad Sanu questionable and limited as he deals with an injury. The Patriots defense has been not quite as spectacular as of late as their strength of schedule has dialed up — but they are still only allowing 20.0 PPG along with 312.3 total YPG over their last three games. They also hold their visitors to just 11.0 PPG along with only 234.0 total YPG. New England has played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points — and they have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points overall. And in their last 5 games in the month of November, the Patriots have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The cold weather will make the Dallas offense uncomfortable — a familiar foe for dome teams. Don’t be surprised if the tone of this game resembles the Cowboys’ 12-10 win in New Orleans earlier this season (although I lean to the Patriots). 10* NFL Dallas-New England Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (269) and the New England Patriots (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (251) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (252). THE SITUATION: Miami (2-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 37-20 loss to Buffalo as a 7-point underdog. Cleveland (4-6) has won two straight games after they defeated Pittsburgh on November 14th by a 21-7 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Browns has been inconsistent this season — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. This team benefitted from playing a depleted Steelers' offense that lost more players in that game after some questionable cheap shots that left Pittsburgh without their three best offensive weapons to complement quarterback Mason Rudolph who was starting in just his second game on the road. The Browns held the Steelers to just 236 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards. Cleveland stays at home where they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The Browns have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 26 games in November, Cleveland is just 7-18-1 ATS. Miami should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Despite the tanking strategy by management, rookie head coach Brian Flores has this team playing hard — and they are dangerous with the savvy veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Over their last three games with Fitzpatrick back as the starting quarterback, the Dolphins are scoring a healthy 20.7 PPG. The Miami defense is also playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 22.3 PPG along with only 348.3 total YPG which is -46.2 net YPG below their season average. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after the first month of the season. Miami has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 20 road games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points. And in their last 5 games against AFC opponents, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 4 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be without their top three pass rushers in this game with Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi suspended for this game after last week’s debacle at the end of the Steelers game and with Olivier Vernon out with a knee injury. This takes a big chunk out of the talent edge this Browns’ roster has against many teams. When considering that Cleveland gives back 103 yards in penalties when playing at home, take the double-digit underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Miami Dolphins (251) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). THE SITUATION: New York (2-8) has lost six straight games after their 34-27 upset loss to the Jets two weeks ago back on November 10th as a 3-point favorite. Chicago (4-6) us reeling as well with five losses in their last six games after their 17-7 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are a risky favorite laying close to a touchdown against any NFL opponent right now because of the utter collapse in the confidence of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The third-year pro completed 24 of 43 passes last week for 190 yards while leading his offense to just 267 total yards. Chicago is 28th in the NFL by averaging 16.9 PPG — and they are 30th in the legacy by averaging only 262.7 total YPG. Things do not get better at home where they are scoring only 16.0 PPG while averaging winning just 277.8 total YPG. It has become clear that head coach Matt Nagy has lost confidence in Trubisky as he has taken plays out of the playbook — yet the stubborn offensive “genius” is unwilling to adapt the play-calling to Trubisky’s skill set because (and I am paraphrasing) he was not hired by the franchise to deviate from his basic offensive principles. We all can be geniuses if Patrick Mahomes is the one executing our chicken scratches in the sand. With defenses daring the Trubisky to throw the ball down field as they stack the box, the Bears are scoring a mere 13.7 PPG while averaging 219.0 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago rushed for only 74 yards last week — and they have not topped 81 rushing yards in each of their last three games. That is a bad sign for this team moving forward as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to top 99 rushing yards in their last two games. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not averaging more than 225 Yards-Per-Game over their last three games. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The defense has been helping the offense out as of late with the Bears winning the turnover battle in two straight games — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 53 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. New York has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing six games in a row. This team should benefit from their bye week — and head coach Pat Shurmur certainly used the time to vigorously prepare for this game with him being on the hot seat for next season. Expect running back Saquon Barkley to also benefit from the extra week off after he was embarrassed with just one rushing yard against the Jets in 13 carries. The Giants managed only 23 rushing yards overall in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 road games after only rushing for up to 75 yards in their last game. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been playing better as of late Since Week Eight, Jones has completed 65.6% of his passes while averaging 280.0 passing YPG with 9 TD passes and only one interception. He has a nice Passer Rating of 100.6 over that span. He will not have tight end Evan Engram for this game as he still deals with his injured foot but wide receiver Sterling Shepard is set to return to the field after clearing the concussion protocol. The Giants have been a good road team relative to the point spread as of late — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games away from home while also covering the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road as an underdog — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. And while the Giants have lost the turnover battle in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants just 27th in the league in total defense — but facing Trubisky will help them this afternoon. Chicago cannot even bank on piling up field goals with kicker Eddie Pineiro having missed three straight field goals along with four of his last seven attempts. New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Bears — expect a close game. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (110) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (109). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-4) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 33-13 win over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak end on Sunday with their 41-7 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Texans should respond with a strong effort after their embarrassing effort on Sunday as they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They also are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games are failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 18 of 29 passes against the Ravens for just 169 yards in that game with Houston only finishing with 110 net passing yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to pass for at least 150 passing yards. Now the Texans return home where they are 3-1 this season where they are outgaining their opponents by +44.5 net YPG. Houston has been playing much better defense as those where they are holding their visitors to just 21.0 PPG along with only 332.2 total YPG. They were gouged for 263 rushing yards to the Ravens’ rushing attack last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. And while Houston has given up 408.3 total YPG over their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at last 400 YPG over their last three games. The Texans have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win at home. And while the Colts have won four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The Indianapolis offense will be hampered with injuries for this game being played on a short week. Running back Marlon Mack will also be out several weeks after fracturing his hand last week in the third quarter after leading the team with 108 rushing yards. And while wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron has practiced yesterday and are expected to play tonight, their respective effectiveness remains in question as they are dealing with their calf and ankle injuries. Even backup running back, Jordan Wilkins, is slowed with a hamstring injury. QB Jacoby Brissett completed 15 of 24 passes for 148 passing yards last week — and Indy has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for no more than 150 passing yards in their last game. These are far from optimal conditions for an offense that ranks 21st in the NFL by averaging 343.8 total YPG — and that number drops to just 330.7 total YPG that they average on the road. The Colts go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after a two-game homestand. And while Indianapolis has not allowed more than 90 rushing yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 30-23 win over the Texans back on October 20th in Indianapolis where they were 1.5-point favorites. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Houston Fox-TV Special with the Houston Texans (110) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-4) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 33-13 win over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (6-4) saw their two-game winning streak end on Sunday with their 41-7 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played been playing defense as of late. They are 11th in the NFL by allowing 325.6 total YPG but over their last three games that mark has lowered to just 270.0 total YPG — and they have held their last there opponents to only 18.3 PPG. But the Indianapolis offense will be hampered with injuries for this game being played on a short week. Running back Marlon Mack will also be out several weeks after fracturing his hand last week in the third quarter after leading the team with 108 rushing yards. And while wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Eric Ebron has practiced yesterday and are expected to play tonight, their respective effectiveness remains in question as they are dealing with their calf and ankle injuries. Even backup running back, Jordan Wilkins, is slowed with a hamstring injury. These are far from optimal conditions for an offense that ranks 21st in the NFL by averaging 343.8 total YPG — and that number drops to just 330.7 total YPG that they average on the road. The Colts have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Indianapolis has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents. Houston has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Texans managed only 232 yards last week — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Houston has also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. The Texans are scoring just 20.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 343.3 total YPG with both marks far below their 24.5 PPG and 380.2 total YPG season averages. Now Houston returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Texans have been playing much better defense as those where they are holding their visitors to just 21.0 PPG along with only 332.2 total YPG. Houston has allowed 408.3 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 total YPG over their last three games. The Texans have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And in their last 6 games against AFC South opponents, Houston has played 5 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 30-23 victory over Houston back on October 20th. But despite that game finished above the 46.5 point Total, these team two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (109) and the Houston Texans (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (476) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (475). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-4) has lost two of their last three games as well as four of their last six contests after their 35-32 upset loss at Tennessee as a 5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (4-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two Thursdays ago with their 26-21 upset loss at Oakland as a 1-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering an upset loss. Additionally, the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a close loss by 3 points or less. Los Angeles is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a point spread setback. The Chargers are playing better football as they get relatively healthy and running back Melvin Gordon gets himself into playing shape after ending his contractual holdout. Gordon comes off his best game this season with 108 rushing yards against the Raiders. The Chargers have an underrated defense — they are 6th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG and they are also 6th in the league by limiting these foes to only 318.6 total YPG. Los Angeles has held its last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 283.3 total YPG. Improved run defense has been fundamental to Chargers’ playing even better on that side of the football. After getting gouged for 162 rushing yards at Chicago three weeks ago, Los Angeles held the Packers to only 45 rushing yards before limiting the Raiders last week to just 78 rushing yards. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher including covering the point spread in these last five situations. Kansas City has failed to cove the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The suspect Chiefs defense gave up 371 yards to the Titans last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 total yards in their last game. Kansas City is 23rd in the NFL by allowing 369.5 total YPG. The Chiefs have surrendered 29.7 PPG over their last three games. Kansas City’s biggest vulnerability with their defense is in stopping the run as they are allowing 148.1 rushing YPG which is 30th in the NFL. The Chiefs lean on Patrick Mahomes to bail their defense out — and they have averaged 453.5 YPG over their last two contests. But Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after averaging at least 450 YPG in their last two games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in Week 10 through 13.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers practiced all week at the football facilities at the Air Force Academy in Colorado where the altitude is similar to what they will experience tonight in Mexico City. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs struggle a bit in the second half of this game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Kansas City-LA Chargers ESPN Special with the Los Angeles Chargers (476) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (6-4) has lost two of their last three games as well as four of their last six contests after their 35-32 upset loss at Tennessee as a 5-point favorite last week. Los Angeles (4-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two Thursdays ago with their 26-21 upset loss at Oakland as a 1-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chargers have an underrated defense — they are 6th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 19.4 PPG and they are also 6th in the league by limiting these foes to only 318.6 total YPG. Los Angeles has held its last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 283.3 total YPG. Improved run defense has been fundamental to Chargers’ playing even better on that side of the football. After getting gouged for 162 rushing yards at Chicago three weeks ago, Los Angeles held the Packers to only 45 rushing yards before limiting the Raiders last week to just 78 rushing yards. The Chargers have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. But Los Angeles has also averaged only 329.3 total YPG over their last three games which is over 25 YPG below their season average. The Chargers’ star left tackle, Russell Okung has been downgraded to doubtful for this game with his ankle injury. That is not a good turn of events for a team that is just 21st in the NFL by averaging 20.7 PPG. Los Angeles has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November — and they have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against fellow AFC West opponents. The Chargers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Kansas City had played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, the Chiefs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. The Chargers’ game plan will surely be to run the football against the Chiefs defense that ranks 30th in the NFL by allowing 148.1 rushing YPG. LA running the football will burn time off the clock while keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field. Kansas City allowed the Titans to rush for 225 yards last week — and they have then played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to rush for at least 150 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played nine straight games where no more than 50 combined points have been scored. The Chiefs have played three of their last six games where no more than 49 combined points were scored. With this game being played in altitude of 7200 square feet, the Chargers will be looking to slow this game down to a crawl to tire out the Kansas City defense. They may not be able to stop down the Mahomes — but fewer possessions for the Chiefs offense should help this game finish below the number. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (475) and the Los Angeles Chargers (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (474) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (473). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-5) snapped their four-game winning streak last week with their 20-10 win at home over Detroit as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (5-4) had their two-game winning streak end last week with their 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should rebound with a strong effort. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Rams rushed for only 88 yards in that game against the Steelers — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not rushing for at least 90 yards in their last game. Los Angeles is getting better play from their defense since the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey. They have held their last three opponents to just 12.3 PPG along with only 299.3 total YPG. The Steelers rushed for only 42 yards last week — and the Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after win by no more than 7 points against an NFC North rival. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns passes — but if you think those numbers are a refection of a sudden improvement in his play, the ole eyeball test suggested otherwise during this game. The Bears only held a 7-6 lead at halftime against the Lions team playing without Matthew Stafford. Chicago only had 13 first downs in that game while being outgained by -131 net yards due to their stagnant offense that managed only 226 yards against a Detroit team that entered that game ranked second-to-last in total defense. Trubisky looks lost in his third season as a professional — and perhaps the bigger indictment of his development is that head coach Matt Nagy has lost confidence in him as evidenced by his conservative play-calling. The Bears are 29th in the league by averaging 262.2 total YPG — and they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging 259.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Chicago defense allowed a Lions; offense playing with the injured Stafford to gain 357 yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bears’ rushing attack did not do much to help Trubisky out last week as they managed only 81 yards on the ground. Chicago has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards. Furthermore, the Bears only gained 164 yards the previous week in Philadelphia against the Eagles — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Sean McVay and the rest of this Rams team will have revenge on their mind from their embarrassing 15-6 loss in the frigid December weather in Chicago at night last season. It was just a short week ago where the conventional wisdom had evolved that the Rams had turned the corner from their slow start with a two-game winning streak. Look for LA to earn a decisive victory. 10* NFL Chicago-LA Rams NBC-TV Special with the Los Angeles Rams (474) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-5) snapped their four-game winning streak last week with their 20-10 win at home over Detroit as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (5-4) had their two-game winning streak end last week with their 17-12 loss at Pittsburgh as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns passes — but if you think those numbers are a refection of a sudden improvement in his play, the ole eyeball test suggested otherwise during this game. The Bears only held a 7-6 lead at halftime against the Lions team playing without Matthew Stafford. Chicago only had 13 first downs in that game while being outgained by -131 net yards due to their stagnant offense that managed only 226 yards against a Detroit team that entered that game ranked second-to-last in total defense. Trubisky looks lost in his third season as a professional — and perhaps the bigger indictment of his development is that head coach Matt Nagy has clearly lost confidence in him as evidenced by his conservative play-calling. The Bears are 29th in the league by averaging 262.2 total YPG — and they are scoring just 16.7 PPG while averaging 259.3 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bears have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 275 yards of offense in their last game. Chicago was outgained by 309 net yards in their previous game against Philadelphia — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total after being outgained by at least 100 yards in two straight contests. The Bears have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Chicago has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bears are still playing good defense this season — they rank 4th in the NFL by allowing only 17.4 PPG and they have held their last three opponents to just 320.3 total YPG. Los Angeles managed only 306 yards last week in their loss at Pittsburgh. Jared Goff completed only 22 of 41 passes for 243 yards in that loss with him struggling behind an injured offensive line. The Rams are also missing wide receiver Brandin Cooks which allows opposing defenses to double cover Cooper Krupp who did not have a reception last season. Los Angeles is getting better play from their defense since the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey. They have held their last three opponents to just 12.3 PPG along with only 299.3 total YPG. The Steelers rushed for only 42 yards last week — and Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Chicago’s 15-6 upset victory over the Rams last December 9th. That was the game where Bears’ defensive coordinator installed a 6-1 defensive front with six defenders on the line stymying the Rams play-action pass attack. The Sean McVay offense has not been quite the same since that contest in this copycat league. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). THE SITUATION: New England (8-1) returns to the field again after their bye week which came after their first loss of the season in Baltimore by a 37-20 score. Philadelphia (5-4) also comes off their bye week as well after their 22-14 win over Chicago as a 5-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have worked on getting his defense back into shape after Lamar Jackson and the Ravens rushing attack put up 30 points against them (with 7 points coming from a defensive touchdown by Baltimore). The Patriots have played 6 straight games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. Additionally, New England has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, the Patriots have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New England remains the best statistical defense in the league as they are allowing 10.9 PPG and just 249.3 total YPG which are both best in the NFL. The Patriots are also 2nd in the NFL by scoring 30.0 PPG — but those numbers include six non-offensive touchdowns from special teams and their defense. Tellingly, New England is 15th in the NFL by averaging just 366.8 total YPG — and they are averaging just 342.4 total YPG on the road and only 327.7 total YPG over their last three games. Tom Brady lacks credible deep threats from his wide receivers — and this is allowing opponents to stack the box to put more pressure on their ground game. Now the Patriots go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total — and they have also played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Philadelphia is also a team that has been limited on offense given the lack of deep threats given the injury abdominal injury to DeSean Jackson that has placed him on IR. The Eagles are just 19th in the NFL by averaging 347.0 total YPG. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after their bye week. The Philly defense has been playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 273.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have also played 9 of their last 111 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL New England-Philadelphia CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (456) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (455). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-16 loss at Green Bay last week as a 5-point underdog. Atlanta (2-7) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 26-9 loss at New Orleans as a 14-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Carolina should respond with a strong effort as they have consistently done under the leadership of head coach Ron Rivera. The Panthers have covered the point spread in a decisive 62 of their last 100 games after a loss on the road including covering point spread expectations in seven of these last ten situations. And while Carolina has won five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 home games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Panthers have only covered the point spread once in their last three games but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. Quarterback Kyle Allen completed 28 of 43 passes for 307 yards against the Packers while displaying grit by almost leading his team to victory in the snowy conditions at Lambeau Field before seeing his last-minute drive fall one yard short as time expired. Carolina gained 401 yards against Green Bay — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. And while Carolina endured a -2 net turnover margin, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Atlanta will likely suffer a letdown after their emotional upset win in the Big Easy last week. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. This team stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games when playing at least two straight games away from home. The Falcons running game is in shambles with Devonta Freeman out for this game with his ankle injury. With his primary backup, Ito Smith, on Injured Reserve, it looks like the primary ball-handling chores will go to Brian Hill whose experience escapes me right now (and no time to check …). Quarterback Matt Ryan will also be without the most productive tight end in fantasy football in this game in Austin Hooper — and remember that this team traded away Mohamad Sanu which leaves the supporting cast with this loaded offense suddenly a bit thin. The Falcons defense played their best game of the season last week by limiting the Saints to just 310 yards after head coach Dan Quinn handing over playcalling duties to his assistant coaches (Raheem Morris is now responsible for calling the plays on passing downs). That one trick pony worked as a surprise last week against New Orleans but now Rivera and company can adapt. Atlanta is 28th in the NFL by allowing 28.8 PPG. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has won six of the last seven meetings between these two teams — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in Carolina against the Panthers. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Carolina Panthers (456) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (459) and the Minnesota Vikings (460). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-6) snapped their two-game losing streak two weeks ago with their 24-19 win over Cleveland as a 4-point underdog. Minnesota (7-3) has won five of their last six games with their 28-24 upset win last Sunday night in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 11-1-1 in the Broncos’ last 13 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after a point spread victory. And while the Denver defense surrendered 351 yards in that game, the Under is then 13-3-1 in their last 17 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Rookie QB Brandon Allen was solid but unspectacular in his first career start by completing 12 of his mere 20 passes in that game for 193 yards. I expect him to struggle against this Panthers defense that now can study him on tape executing the Denver offense in a regular-season game. The Broncos are scoring only 16.2 PPG on the road — and the Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games on the road. Denver has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after their bye week. Furthermore, the Under is 8-1-1 in the Broncos’ last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as the underdog. Minnesota’s defense will be make it tough on Allen — they are holding their visitors to just 13.7 PPG along with only 315.7 total YPG. The Vikings have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Vikings’ game with the Cowboys finished Over the 48.5 point total with all but one scoring drive in that game stalling for a field goal. But Minnesota has then played 7 straight home games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Kirk Cousins targeted 16 of his 23 completions last week to tight ends or running backs with Adam Thielen on the sidelines with an ankle injury. He led the Vikings’ offense to 364 total yards in that game — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Thielen is once again out for this game — and Minnesota is facing a tough Denver defense that is 4th in the NFL by allowing only 309.7 total YPG. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (459) and the Minnesota Vikings (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (453) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (454). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (7-2) saw their six-game winning streak snapped last week with their surprising 26-9 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 14-point favorite. Tampa Bay (3-6) ended their four-game losing streak last week with their 30-27 win at home over Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is, in part, a contrarian play after considering that the Buccaneers have played seven straight Overs entering this game. Tampa Bay did generate 457 yards last week but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Buccaneers have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Tampa Bay is allowing 32.0 PPG which is the worst in the NFL — but this defense also leads the NFL by giving up just 77.8 rushing YPG and that is not just about the opponents not rushing very much as opposing rushers are averaging just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. I suspect that Sean Paton will want to get his running game going after the Saints managed only 310 total yards last week. The New Orleans offense was only on the field for 26:14 minutes in that game with Drew Brees attempting 45 passes (for 287 yards) — so the Saints will likely try to re-establish their commitment to running the football to help their defense. New Orleans has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss by at least 10 points. And while the Saints are averaging 414.7 total YPG over their last three games, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 total YPG over their last three games. This team has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards. They go on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The New Orleans defense ranks 5th in the league by holding their opponents to just 316.6 total YPG. And in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record, the Saints have played 9 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 15 of their last 22 meetings Under the Total — and they have played five of their last six encounters in Tampa Bay Under the Total. With the number in the 50 range, expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (453) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago in London with their 26-3 loss to Houston as a 1-point favorite. Indianapolis (5-4) has lost two straight games with their 16-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The team does get Jacoby Brissett back under center after he missed the last two games. But he will be without his best weapon in wide receiver T.Y. Hilton who is out for this game — and his absence has had a significant impact on the ability of this offense to move down the field. The Colts defense has been keeping this team competitive — they have held their last five opponents to just 18.2 PPG with that number including an interception returned for a touchdown which was not the fault of the defense. Indianapolis is 10th in the NFL by allowing just 327.6 total YPG — and they have allowed their last three opponents to average just 260.3 total YPG. The Colts stay at home where they have played 21 of their last 31 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November. And in their last 15 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Colts have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 4 straight games Under the Total against divisional rivals. The Jaguars have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss as the favorite in their last contest. The team gets back Nick Foles at quarterback in this game — but it is not as if Gardner Minshew was playing bad for this team since Week One. He threw for 309 yards last week while leading an offense that generated 309 yards against the Texans — but the Jags have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Jacksonville has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 14 points in their last game. Foles threw only 11 passes in Week One before he suffered his injury. Now this team goes back not he road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. This team will still rely on running back Leonard Fournette and their strong defense that has held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with only 304.7 total YPG. Moving forward, the Jaguars have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: These teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after last year’s 6-0 win by Jacksonville back on December 21st. While I expect more scoring than that, these two teams have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Indy. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4) has won four straight games with their 17-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Rams as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (3-6) snapped their four-game losing streak on Sunday with their 19-16 win at home over Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: There are some situational aspects to this game which I think I give the Browns the edge. However, in what is considered a coin flip outcome by the oddsmakers, I think there are some overwhelming intangibles where the Steelers have the edge. First, Mike Tomlin and his staff have a significant advantage in preparing for this game on a short week. Rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens is experiencing growing pains going from a running backs coach at the beginning of last season to now being a deal head coach and offensive coordinator for the first time (for an entire season) this year — and his job is complicated by all the personalities on his roster along with the unreasonable expectations placed on this squad which would be a challenge for even the most savvy veteran NFL coach. Second, Cleveland gives away tons of yardage in their mistakes via penalties. They are averaging nine penalties a game which is accounting for 78 YPG — and they have averaged 10 penalties per game over their last three contests which has accounted for 99 YPG. The Browns have been consistently inconsistent as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Third, Cleveland’s proclivity to make mistakes extends to turning the ball over — they are averaging 1.9 turnovers per game with a -0.90 net turnover margin per game. The Steelers are second in the league with 26 takeaways which have all taken place after the first week of the season. Pittsburgh averages 2.9 takeaways per game with that number rising to a 3.7 average over their last three games. There is a reason this underachieving franchise is now 5-21-2 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. The Browns are also just 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as the favorite. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as the favorite. And while the Browns gained 368 yards last week against the Bills, they are then just 12-30-4 ATS in their last 46 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh’s winning culture has helped them go 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. The Steelers are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on Thursday night. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as a dog getting up to 7 points. The surging Steelers’ defense is holding their opponents to just 16.7 PPG over their last three games along with only 288.0 total YPG over that span. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow opponents from the AFC North. With James Connor returning to the field to jumpstart their running game, look for Pittsburgh to be in position to pull the upset (but take the points for some insurance). 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Cleveland Fox-TV Special with Pittsburgh Steelers (309) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-4) has won four straight games with their 17-12 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Rams as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (3-6) snapped their four-game losing streak on Sunday with their 19-16 win at home over Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after point spread win — and with Pittsburgh having covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Steelers have also played 9 straight games Under the Total after playing a game against an NFC opponent. This is a team that became a defense-first run team after the season-ending injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Steel Curtain defense had been playing better after a slow start — but this unit has gone to another level with the acquisition of Minkah Fitzpatrick from the Dolphins. Pittsburgh is allowing only 16.7 PPG along with just 288.0 total YPG over their last three games. But the Steelers are scoring only 23.3 PPG while averaging a mere 313.3 total YPG over those last three games. Overall, Pittsburgh is just 28th in the NFL by averaging 288.8 total YPG. Now after playing their last three games at home, this team goes back on the road where their offense struggles even more as they are scoring just 15.3 PPG while averaging 267.7 total YPG in their three games away from home. Surprisingly, this will be Mason Rudolph’s just second start on the road in his career after he completed just 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards in Week Three this season in their loss in San Francisco. The Steelers have played 15 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 22 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Pittsburgh has also played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Additionally, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC North opponents — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. Cleveland has played 22 of their last 31 home games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. The Browns ranks just 26th in the league by scoring only 19.0 PPG — and they are scoring just 17.0 PPG over their last three games. The defense has played better as of late as they are allowing only 321.3 total YPG over those last three games which is almost 35 YPG below their season average. Cleveland stays at home where the are scoring just 18.2 PPG. The Under is 17-7-1 in the Browns’ last 25 games at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Cleveland has also played 31 of their last 43 home games Under the Total when favored by up to 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised if plenty of scoring drives end up in field goals. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in the NFL by scoring touchdowns in just 39.3% of their Red Zone drives — and Cleveland ranks 26th in the league with a TD rate of only 46.7% of their Red Zone drives after a meager 30% conversion rate over their last three games (including a brutal stalled drive inside the 10-yard line against the Bills’ last week). These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings in Cleveland Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (309) and the Cleveland Browns (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-2) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 40-34 win over Tampa Bay last week in overtime as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (8-0) remained unbeaten two Thursdays ago with their 28-25 win at Arizona as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. The Seahawks have also played 6 straight games on the road Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Russell Wilson should keep his team within one scoring possession (at least) in this game — he leads an offense that is tops in the NFL in the 2-minute drill. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in their last two games as well as in seven of their nine contests this season — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Wilson completed 29 of 43 passes last week against the Buccaneers for 378 yards with five touchdown passes and no interceptions — and the Seahawks are 27-12-3 ATS in their last 42 games after a game where they generated at least 250 passing yards. Seattle goes back on the road where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +7.5 PPG. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record at home. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Moving forward, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November. Seattle is also 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on Monday Night Football. San Francisco generated 411 yards last week against the Cardinals — but they are 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Furthermore, this franchise has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning at least eight straight games. San Francisco has only covered the point spread once in their last three games as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread 8 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Niners also lost the heart and soul of their defense last week with the season-ending chest injury to linebacker Kwan Alexander. Now they return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home laying no more than 7 points. San Francisco is also just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games against teams from the NFC West, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings with the 49ers — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against the Niners in San Francisco. 10* NFL Seattle-San Francisco ESPN Special with the Seattle Seahawks (273) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-2) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 40-34 win over Tampa Bay last week in overtime as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (8-0) remained unbeaten two Thursdays ago with their 28-25 win at Arizona as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in seven of their last nine games. They are 5th in the NFL by averaging 395.5 total YPG — and they also rank 7th in the league by scoring 27.6 PPG. But the concern for this team is their defense as they have allowed at least 20 points in eight of their nine contests this season. The Seahawks rank 29th in the NFL by allowing 278.1 passing YPG. Atlanta’s aging backup quarterback, Matt Schaub, tore their defense up for 460 yards two weeks ago before Jameis Winston passed for 335 yards against them last week. Seattle has played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Over their last three games, the Seahawks are allowing 28.0 PPG along with 423.3 total YPG. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 28.5 PPG — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total on the road. Seattle has also played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow opponents from the NFC West — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total in November. San Francisco has played their last two games Over the Total — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. The 49ers have played outstanding defense this season — they rank first in the NFL by limiting their opponents to just 241.0 total YPG. But the Niners lost the heart and soul of their defense last week with the season-ending chest injury to linebacker Kwan Alexander. San Francisco returns home where they are scoring 35.3 PPG while averaging 423.3 total YPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 7 points. Additionally, the 49ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total. Hopefully, we will start seeing more Red Zone trips end in touchdowns rather than short field goals (and then maybe our Unders will start seeing some Red Zone drives stall and settle for field goals). Sooner or later, the Regression Gods always reappear! In the meantime, let's stick to solid fundamentals. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (271) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-3) looks to bounce-back from their 26-23 upset loss at Kansas City last week as a 5.5-point favorite that snapped their four-game winning streak. Dallas (5-3) has won two straight games with their 37-18 win in New York against the Giants last Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. The Vikings have also rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This is a dreaded prime-time game for quarterback Kirk Cousins. He has 5-12 straight-up record as the starting QB in televised prime-time games — but the underlying numbers are not bad that accompany those seventeen starts. Cousins was very sharp in his prime-time game last month against Washington where he completed 23 of 26 passes for 285 passing yards on Thursday Night Football. Wide receiver Adam Thielen is out for this game — but Minnesota is likely to lean heavily on their dynamic rushing attack with Delvin Cook leading the way for them to average a robust 153.0 rushing YPG which is third in the NFL. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And the field turf will not be anything new for this team that plays on this same surface for their home games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games played on field turf. The Vikings will lean on their defense that ranks 4th by allowing only 17.6 PPG while also ranking 8th by giving up just 320.9 total YPG. Dallas dominated the Giants last week by outgaining them by a 429 to 271 yardage margin — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards in their last game. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a short week after a game on Monday Night Football. Dallas has benefited from a soft schedule so far this season that has included the Giants twice along with the Jets, Washington and Miami who entered the day with a combined 6-30 record with none of those four teams having won more than two victories. Of course, the Cowboys lost to that Jets team that later handed the Dolphins their first win of the season. Dallas’ only win against a team with a winning record this year was against the Eagles — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 36 home games when favored to up to 3 points, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have covered the point spread in their last 4 meetings with the Cowboys. Look for a close game where Minnesota will have the opportunity to pull the upset. 10* NFL Minnesota-Dallas NBC-TV Special with the Minnesota Vikings (271) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-3) looks to bounce-back from their 26-23 upset loss at Kansas City last week as a 5.5-point favorite that snapped their four-game winning streak. Dallas (5-3) has won two straight games with their 37-18 win in New York against the Giants last Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys preceded their victory on Monday Night Football with a 37-10 win on Sunday Night Football two weeks prior against the Eagles. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 28 points in a victory over an NFC East rival in their last game. Additionally, not only have the Cowboys played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games but they have also played 5 straight Unders after winning two straight games by double-digits. Dallas has had their offense cranking as of late — but they have then played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. Dallas has averaged 6.6 and 6.4 Yards-Per-Play respectively in each of their last two games — but they have then played 37 of their last 56 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. The Cowboys also rushed for 172 yards last week against the Giants — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Dallas returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite. QB Kirk Cousins will be without wide receiver Adam Thielen who is out for this game with a hamstring injury. Look for the Vikings to run the football to keep the Cowboys’ offense off the field. That will be easier said than done — Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 17.8 PPG and they also rank 6th in the league by giving up just 318.1 total YPG. The Vikings will lean on their defense that ranks 4th by allowing only 17.6 PPG while also ranking 8th by giving up just 320.9 total YPG. Minnesota did allow the Chiefs to average 7.1 YPP — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Vikings have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to 7 points. Furthermore, Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total playing on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 encounters Under the Total. Look for this game to resemble the Cowboys prime-time game in New Orleans at the end of September which resulted in a 12-10 score. 25* NFL Sunday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (271) and the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (202) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (201). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-8) returns to the field after their bye week after a 24-10 loss in London to the Los Angeles Rams as a 12-point underdog. Baltimore (6-2) has won four games in a row after their triumphant 37-20 win over New England last Sunday night as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Nothing like taking a winless NFL team after a dreary Saturday in College Football! I would hate myself more for not endorsing this play (and the Bengals cover) than I will if the Ravens blow out this team today. If we are not willing to invest in this fantastic “play-against” situation, then it is time to get out of the business. Baltimore’s value with the betting public will never be higher after they pulled off two straight upset victories with their win over the Patriots preceded by a 30-16 upset win at Seattle as a 3-point underdog two weeks ago. But the personality of this team suggests they will suffer an emotional letdown. Not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after winning two straight games by at least 14 points. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while the Baltimore defense surrendered 268 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Baltimore has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against AFC North opponents. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against fellow AFC North foes. They have had the benefit of their bye week to prepare against the Ravens’ ground game behind Lamar Jackson. They also should have a specific offensive game plan for rookie quarterback Ryan Finley who takes over for Andy Dalton. I like Finley from his NC State days — and he played well in the preseason. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing at least eight straight games. They do return home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And while they allowed 372 passing yards to the Rams in London, the Bengals have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch from the Ravens’ 23-17 win last month on October 13th played in Baltimore. But this Baltimore team has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games played in Cincinnati. Hold your nose if it helps (I will …) but this is too many points to pass up for a home dog in a divisional matchup playing with revenge and off their bye week. 10* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Cincinnati Bengals (202) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-5) has lost four games in a row with their 22-14 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (3-4-1) has lost four of their last five games after their 31-24 loss in Oakland last week as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Taking Chicago was on my short list of sides to still consider this morning after taking into account the final injury reports — and, lo and behold, Matthew Stafford will not playing in this game with doctors ruling him out because of some broken vertebrae in his back. That makes a potentially good play into a great situation. Stafford has been quietly having an MVP level season for this Lions team that ranks 5th in the NFL in total offense. Jeff Driskel will be the quarterback under center for this team despite him not taking part in training camp as he signed with the team during the regular season. Driskel played in nine games with five starts last year for the Bengals where he completed 59.7% of his passes but averaged only 5.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. It is not encouraging that he was cut by Cincinnati after their second preseason game this season after completing just 13 of 27 passes for 136 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. I also assign zero credibility to the fact that he was picked up by the Lions as their management has been disorganized with many/most of their personnel decisions (not involving former Patriots players) — Detroit has rolled through at least three backup quarterbacks this season with Tom Savage, David Fales, and Josh Johnson (offhand) who have all been cut since. Perhaps Driskel is an upgrade over that list of names (perhaps) but he did not have the benefit of training camp to learn the Darrell Bevell offense. Quite simply, Plan A for this team has been Stafford at quarterback — and Plan B is to not worry about Plan B. For a fragile team about ready to form a mutiny against head coach Matt Patricia, this is not a good turn of events. As it is, Stafford was holding things together for this team that has collapsed on the defensive side of the football. The Lions are allowing 27.1 PPG (27th in the NFL) while ranking second-to-last by giving up 424.1 total YPG. They have allowed 33.0 PPG over their last three contests along with 441.0 total YPG — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Their beleaguered secondary is also 31st in the NFL by surrendering 288.4 passing YPG after giving up at least 277 passing yards in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight contests. Additionally, Detroit is just 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. The Lions are also 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC North opponents. This defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Mitchell Trubisky back on track. Chicago managed just 164 yards of offense last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after failing to generate at least 200 total yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. And while Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after not covering point spread expectations in three straight contests. Returning home will help this team as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And look for the Bears’ defense to help by forcing Driskel and this Lions’ offense (without their injured running back Kerryon Johnson) to force mistakes and turnovers in this one. Chicago has lost the turnover battle in three straight games — but not only have they covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after suffering a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games but they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after losing the turnover war in three straight contests. This is also a team that has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams from the NFC North — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Bears after getting swept last season — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games at Soldier Field playing the Bears. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (107). THE SITUATION: Oakland (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 31-24 win over Detroit as a 2.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-5) has won two straight games after their 26-11 upset win at home over Green Bay on Sunday as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Chargers have pulled off two straight upset victories as they proceeded their win over the Packers with a 17-16 upset win at Chicago where they were getting a field goal. But this team is likely to suffer an emotional letdown now playing on a short week. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after an upset victory in their last game as a home underdog. The Chargers are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers are playing better defense as of late as they have surrendered only 27 combined points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. Furthermore, while Los Angeles held Green Bay to only 184 yards of offense last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chargers are just 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Oakland will be playing in just their fourth true home game of the season after a five-game stretch which were all played away from Oakland Coliseum were two road games sandwiched their game in London where they were the technical home team. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in their last 3 home games as the underdog getting up to 3 points. Furthermore, Oakland has allowed at least 388 yards in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 contests after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games. Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn recently replaced his offensive coordinator, Ken Whisenhunt, for a faltering offense — and while tapping Shane Steichen as the new OC, he called on the offense to commit to running the ball more. This focus on running the football will play into the Raiders’ strength on defense as they rank 7th in the NFL by allowing just 92.5 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have won the last four meetings between these two teams after sweeping this AFC West series in the last two seasons. But with this being an emotional night in Oakland’s Coliseum in the last meeting between these two teams in this venue, expect a close game where the Raiders will have the opportunity to pull the upset. 3* NFL LA Chargers-Oakland Fox-TV Special with the Oakland Raiders (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (107) and the Oakland Raiders (108). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-5) has won two straight games after their 26-11 upset win at home over Green Bay on Sunday as a 4-point underdog. Oakland (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 31-24 win over Detroit as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Los Angeles has also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. The Chargers were able to get their ground game going in this game with a simplified rushing attack relying on fewer plays under new offensive coordinator Shane Steichen who replaced the fired Ken Whisenhunt. Los Angeles rushed for 159 yards in that game against the Packers which helped them control the time of possession for 35:51 minutes which kept Aaron Rodgers off the field. Green Bay managed only 184 total yards in that game — and the Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Los Angeles defense has been good once again this season as they rank 8th in the NFL by allowing just 18.7 PPG — and they also rank 8th in total defense by giving up only 322.8 total YPG. Over their last three games, the Chargers are allowing just 16.7 PPG along with only 325.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. But now LA goes back on the road where they are scoring only 19.2 PPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The Chargers have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in November. And in their last 11 games played on Thursday Night Football, the Under is 7-3-1. The Under is also 7-3-1 in Oakland’s last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Oakland has seen at least 51 combined points scored in three straight games, they have then played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Raiders defense has allowed at least 388 yards in three straight games after they surrendered 473 yards last week to the Lions. But not only has Oakland played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games but they have also played 10 of their last 12 games at home Under the Total after allowing at least 375 yards in three straight games. The Raiders do play stout against the run as they rank 7th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 92.5 rushing YPG. They stay at home for just their fourth true home game where they are scoring only 21.7 PPG — and they may be without their star right tackle, Trent Brown, who is questionable on this short week with a knee injury. Oakland has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against AFC West opponents — and the Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing fellow AFC West foes. These two teams have also played 5 straight encounters Under the Total. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (107) and the Oakland Raiders (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (476) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (475). THE SITUATION: New York (2-6) has lost four straight games after their 31-26 loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (4-3) snapped their three-game losing streak back on October 20th with their 37-10 win over Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys may be due for an emotional letdown after their long layoff from their big success on national television. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after a blowout win at home by at least three touchdowns. The Cowboys raced out to a 27-7 halftime lead over the Eagles in that game but they might not be a good sign for them in this game considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. The Dallas offense slows down when away from AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys are scoring 27.1 PPG along with 437.9 total YPG this season — but those numbers drop to just 21.0 PPG along with 376.0 total YPG on the road this year. Dallas is also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after holding their last opponent to 14 points or less. The Cowboys are 5th in the NFL by giving up only 17.7 PPG — but they have allowed their last three opponents to score 22.7 PPG which makes getting another touchdown or so with the point spread very attractive. This defense will also be without one of their best players in linebacker Leighton Vander Bosch who is likely out with a neck injury for this game. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on Monday Night Football. New York should play well in this divisional rematch as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after losing at least four straight games. The Giants’ loss in Detroit last week came on the heels of a 27-21 loss at home to Arizona the previous week. The Giants went into halftime against the Lions trailing by a 17-13 score after trailing to the Cardinals after the first 30 minutes by a 17-14 margin. New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 25 points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half of their last two contests. The Giants did generate 370 yards against the Detroit defense — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. This offense is getting healthy once again with Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram back on the field after missing time with injuries. And while wide receiver Sterling Shepard will likely not play in this game as he re-entered the concussion protocol, they have an emerging target for rookie Daniel Jones in fellow rookie wideout Darius Slayton who starred at Auburn. The New York run defense was then fortified at the trade deadline with the Giants acquiring the 300-LB defensive lineman Leonard Williams from the Jets. New York has played much better on defense when playing at home this season — their four visitors are scoring just 17.2 PPG while averaging only 308.2 total YPG. The arrow is pointing up for this Giants team that is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

FINAL: This is a rematch of the Cowboys’ 35-17 victory at home over the Giants back on September 8th — and New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent. 10* NFL Dallas-NY Giants ESPN Special with the New York Giants (476) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the New York Giants (476). THE SITUATION: Dallas (4-3) snapped their three-game losing streak back on October 20th with their 37-10 win over Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football as a 3-point favorite. New York (2-6) has lost four straight games after their 31-26 loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under there Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Cowboys are playing outstanding defense this season — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing 17.7 PPG while ranking 8th in the league by giving up just 324.9 total YPG. In their three games on the road, Dallas is holding their home hosts to just 19.0 PPG along with only 301.0 total YPG. But the Cowboys offense slows down when away from AT&T Stadium. Dallas is scoring 27.1 PPG along with 437.9 total YPG this season — but those numbers drop to just 21.0 PPG along with 376.0 total YPG on the road this year. The Cowboys are averaging 454.3 total YPG in their last three games — but they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 450 yards over their last three contests. Dallas did rush for 189 yards in their win against the Eagles — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. And in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points, the Cowboys have played 6 of these games Under the Total. A bright spot in New York’s loss at Detroit last week was that they held the Lions to only 59 rushing yards. The Giants have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The New York run defense was then fortified at the trade deadline with the Giants acquiring the 300-LB defensive lineman Leonard Williams from the Jets. New York has played much better on defense when playing at home this season — their four visitors are scoring just 17.2 PPG while averaging only 308.2 total YPG. But the Giants are scoring only 17.2 PPG at home in those games while averaging just 308.2 total YPG. New York is also scoring only 20.3 PPG over their last three games while generating a mere 281.0 total YPG in those contests. Not surprisingly given those numbers, the Giants have played 4 straight home games Under the Total. And in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total in 4 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Cowboys’ 35-17 victory at home over the Giants back on September 8th. The Total was set at 44 in that game with that result being just the second Over in the last seven meetings between these two clubs. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the New York Giants (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (474) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (473). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (5-2) returns off their bye week after winning their third straight game in a row with their 30-16 victory at Seattle as a 3-point underdog. New England (8-0) remained undefeated last week with their 27-13 win over Cleveland as a 10-point favorite. Baltimore (5-2) returns off their bye week after winning their third straight game in a row with their 30-16 victory at Seattle as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach John Harbaugh will have his team very prepared this showdown — Baltimore has won nine of their last eleven games straight-up when playing after their bye week and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games when playing with two weeks off between games. The Ravens have only covered the point spread once in their last six games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Quarterback Lamar Jackson completed 9 of 20 passes in that win over the Seahawks for 143 yards — but Baltimore is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. Jackson does get his best deep threat back for this game in Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who has been out for weeks with his ankle injury. Jackson is also a big threat with his legs as he rushed for 576 yards this season while averaging 6.94 Yards-Per-Carry. Baltimore is 2nd in the NFL by averaging 30.6 PPG — and they also rank 2nd in the league by averaging 434.9 total YPG. The Ravens defense should also have success in stuffing the Patriots rushing attack and force Tom Brady to beat them with his depleted wide receiving corps — they rank 3rd in the league by allowing only 84.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has held its opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 288.7 total YPG. New England has thrived off a very easy schedule to start the season. Remember, the best team they have faced has been a Bills team they played on the road where they won by just a 16-10 score. the Patriots are averaging just 342.5 total YPG over their last three games which is -27.4 net YPG below their season average that ranks just 16th in the league. New England has a banged-up offensive line — and they lack reliable deep threats from their wide receivers from a group that has moved on from both Antonio Brown and now Josh Gordon. Remember that the Patriots have scored four defensive touchdowns while adding another two special teams touchdowns this season. Take away those 42 points (with the extra point) — and the Patriots scoring average of 31.2 PPG drops to 25.95 PPG. They face a Ravens team that has not committed a turnover in four of their seven games — so they are unlikely to be gifted the ball the way the Browns, Jets, and Giants have over the last three weeks where New England forced 13 combined turnovers. The Patriots have won the turnover battle in five straight games — and they have enjoyed a +5 and +3 net turnover margin in their last two games. But New England has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after having a +1 or better turnover margin in at least five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The 27-13 final score for the Patriots last week looks like it was an easy victory over the Browns — but they only outgained Cleveland by a 318 to 310 mark in yardage. Their +3 net turnover margin in that game helped them overcome losing the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football — and this is an area of strength for the Ravens. Expect a close game with Baltimore in a position to pull the upset. 10* NFL New England-Baltimore NBC-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (474) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Baltimore Ravens (474). THE SITUATION: New England (8-0) remained undefeated last week with their 27-13 win over Cleveland as a 10-point favorite. Baltimore (5-2) returns off their bye week after winning their third straight game in a row with their 30-16 victory at Seattle as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. New England has covered the point spread in four straight games with all four of those victories being by at least 21 points. The Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. This is an elite New England defense that is tops in the NFL in allowing just 7.6 PPG along with only 234.0 total YPG. The formula for success in this game is likely to concentrate on stopping the Ravens running game while spying on Lamar Jackson with his ability to run the football while relying on their outstanding cornerbacks to handle the young Baltimore wide receivers in single coverage. On offense, the Patriots are averaging just 342.5 total YPG over their last three games which is -27.4 net YPG below their season average that ranks just 16th in the league. New England has a banged-up offensive line — and they lack reliable deep threats from their wide receivers from a group that has moved on from both Antonio Brown and now Josh Gordon. Remember that the Patriots have scored four defensive touchdowns while adding another two special teams touchdowns this season. Take away those 42 points (with the extra point) — and the Patriots scoring average of 31.2 PPG drops to 25.95 PPG. They face a Ravens team that has not committed a turnover in four of their seven games — so they are unlikely to be gifted the ball the way the Browns, Jets, and Giants have over the last three weeks where New England forced 13 combined turnovers. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when they have won at least six straight games. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road by at least two touchdowns. The Ravens have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a bye week which includes them playing eight of their last eleven games Under the Total when given an extra day to rest and prepare. This Ravens defense should stuff the Patriots rushing attack and force Tom Brady to beat them with his depleted wide receiving corps — they rank 3rd in the league by allowing only 84.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Baltimore has held its opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 288.7 total YPG. They return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: New England has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and this includes them playing 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in November — and their likely strategy for this game will be to run the football to keep Brady off the field. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (473) and the Baltimore Ravens (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (472) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-5) looks to build off their 17-16 upset win in Chicago last week as a 3.5-point underdog. Green Bay (7-1) has won four straight games with their 31-24 win in Kansas City as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. Green Bay is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Packers team looks to have plenty of fans in Los Angeles for this game — but it would be a mistake to say they will have the “advantage” since much of the inherent edge for home teams comes from the familiarity of playing on that field in that specific stadium at least nine times a season (including preseason games). Green Bay is 7-1 this season being outgained by their opponents overall in yardage. They are surviving because their +8 net turnover margin — but the Turnover Gods are fickle. The Packers have enjoyed three net close victories by one scoring possession. And while they are 3-0 away from Lambeau Field this season, they are being outgained by -77.4 net YPG due to their offense only averaging 307.3 total YPG. Los Angeles enters November where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games. They were outgained by 126 rushing yards last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after being outrushed by at least 100 yards in their last game. Getting a healthy Russell Okung back into the mix full time should help get their ground game going. And this is still Phillip Rivers under center — and he has been the quarterback for the vast majority of the 61 of the team’s last 109 games they have covered as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. While the Chargers are 3-5 this season, they are outgaining their opponents by +10.5 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is just 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games in November. They are laying too many points to pass up with a veteran team that made the playoffs last year. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (472) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (458) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). THE SITUATION: Carolina (4-3) saw their four-game winning streak crumble last Sunday in an embarrassing 51-13 loss at San Francisco as a 4-point underdog. Tennessee (4-4) has won two straight games with their 27-23 win over Tampa Bay as a 2-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINSU THE POINTS: Carolina should respond with a strong effort after this big loss. Tight end Greg Olsen addressed the team about the importance of responding with a strong effort for this game with the memory of this team going on a seven game losing streak after getting humiliated in Pittsburgh last season by a 52-21 score. The Panthers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road by at least 21 points. Carolina went into halftime trailing by a 27-3 score as they were never competitive in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after trailing by at least 21 points at halftime of their last contest. Kyle Allen had his worst game as a starter for this team as he threw three interceptions while completing just 19 of 37 passes for 158 yards. The Niners were the first team to pick off an Allen pass this season — the former high school phenom (before a disjointed college career marred by tough internal competitions with Kyler Murray and head coaches jumping ship on him to bigger programs) is still completing 62.3% of his passes this season with 7 touchdowns and just those three interceptions. A healthy Murray under center is in a much better position to execute the schemes of offensive coordinator Norv Turner than a gimpy Cam Newton has been able to in the past. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points. Additionally, Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. This remains a ream that has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 home games after winning at least four of their last five games. Tennessee comes off a perfect 2-0 home stand with their win against the Buccaneers preceded by a 23-20 win over the Rams. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last two games by 6 points or less. This inconsistent Tennessee team is also 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 games after a point spread win. The Titans did show some cracks with their defense as they allowed 389 yards to the Bucs — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The bigger concerns for this team is on offense with a group that ranks 27th in the NFL by averaging just 299.0 total YPG. Ryan Tannehill has replaced Marcus Mariota under center — but this team is still scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 284.3 total YPG over that span. With defenses being able to stuff the box to stop the Titans running backs, Tennessee has not managed more than 97 rushing yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in three straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games in November. Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (458) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (453) minus then points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). THE SITUATION: Houston (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 27-24 win over Oakland last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-4) has won two straight contests with their 29-15 win over the NY Jets last Sunday as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINT(S): Houston has covered the point spread in 6 straight games away from home after a straight-up win. The Texans are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Houston has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after they won at least three of their last four games. This team has lost their star linebacker, J.J. Watt, to a season-ending pectoral injury. But this Texans team is winning because of their offense that ranks 4th in the NFL by averaging 395.0 total YPG. Head coach and acting general manager Bill O’Brien was chastised by many for the trade with the Dolphins that brought over Laremy Tunsil but he has played like a top-ten left tackle in the league while stabilizing what has too often been a leaky offensive line for star quarterback Deshaun Watson. Houston has averaged 417 YPG over their last three games — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after averaging at least 375 YPG over their last three contests. The Texans have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. Jacksonville followed up their 27-17 win at Cincinnati with their 14-point win against the Jets. But not only have the Jaguars failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after a double-digit win but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning their last two games by at least 10 points. Jacksonville was favored in both those games as well but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in two straight games where they won straight-up as the favorite. Gardner Minshew completed 22 of 34 passes for 279 yards against the Jets defense but the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Jacksonville has generated 389 and 460 yards in their last two games. However, they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The concern with this Jags’ offense is their productivity in the Red Zone as they are scoring touchdowns in just 35.7% of their trips inside the 40-yard line which is 30th in the NFL. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has won sixteen of their last twenty-one games going back to last season — and Watson is 15-5 in his career when starting after September. This is a rematch of the Texans’ 13-12 victory at home over the Jaguars back on September 15th. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread 9 of their last 14 games when attempting to avenge a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread 10 of their last 14 games against fellow AFC South opponents. 10* NFL Houston-Jacksonville London Calling Special with the Minshew should have success in this Texans defense missing Watt that was already allowing 276.1 passing YPG which is 28th in the NFL. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (453) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). THE SITUATION: Houston (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 27-24 win over Oakland last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-4) has won two straight contests with their 29-15 win over the NY Jets last Sunday as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Houston won their game last week despite surrendering 378 yards of offense to the Raiders. The Texans have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Houston’s defense is an issue as they rank 21st in the NFL by allow gin 5.9 Yards-Per-Play — and now they have lost their star linebacker, J.J. Watt, to a season-ending pectoral injury. But this Texans team is winning because of their offense that ranks 4th in the NFL by averaging 395.0 total YPG. Head coach and acting general manager Bill O’Brien was chastised by many for the trade with the Dolphins that brought over Laremy Tunsil but he has played like a top-ten left tackle in the league while stabilizing what has too often been a leaky offensive line for star quarterback Deshaun Watson. Houston generated 388 yards of offense last week — and they have averaged 417 YPG over their last three games. Houston has then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after averaging at least 375 YPG over their last three contests. Now the Texans go on the road to London averaging a healthy 27.2 PPG along with 413.2 total YPG away from home. Jacksonville has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and this includes them playing four of these last five situations Over the Total. The Jaguars outgained the Jets in that game by +176 net yards — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least 150 net yards. Jacksonville also benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after enjoying a net turnover margin of +2 or better in their last game. And while the Jags have won four of their last six games, they have then played a decisive 50 of their last 78 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Jacksonville is getting very solid play from quarterback Gardner Minshew who is completing 61.9% of his passes while throwing 13 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. He is leading an offense that has averaged 425.7 total YPG when they are playing away from home. Minshew should have success in this Texans defense missing Watt that was already allowing 276.1 passing YPG which is 28th in the NFL. The Jaguars are very familiar with these London road trips with this being their seventh time playing in one of these specialty neutral site games. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the September 15th meeting between these two teams that Houston won at home by a 13-12 score as a 7-point favorite with the Total set at 43.5. The Jaguars have played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. 5* NFL London Calling Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (453) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Arizona Cardinals (302). THE SITUATION: Arizona (3-4-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 31-9 win at New Orleans as an 11-point underdog. San Francisco (7-0) remained undefeated this year with their 51-13 blowout win over Carolina as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. San Francisco is playing elite-level defense this season — they lead the NFL by allowing only 224.4 total YPG while ranking second in the league by allowing just 11.0 PPG. The Niners have not allowed more than 13 points in each of their last four games. In their last three games, San Francisco is allowing just 6.7 PPG and 183.0 total YPG. Furthermore, the 230 yards of offense that the Panthers gained last week was the most that the 49ers have allowed in their last four games — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in at least two straight games. On offense, San Francisco is scoring 29.6 PPG along with averaging 387.3 total YPG — but those numbers drop to a 25.2 PPG scoring mark on the road where their yardage average drops almost 30 yards to 360.5 total YPG. The Niners have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. San Francisco has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Arizona has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Cardinals managed only 237 total yards of offense last week against the Saints — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. Arizona returns home where they are scoring only 22.7 PPG — and they have averaged just 308.0 total YPG over their last three contests. The Cardinals have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Arizona has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC West opponents.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total when playing in Arizona. 10* NFL San Francisco-Arizona Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Arizona Cardinals (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). THE SITUATION: Arizona (3-4-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 31-9 win at New Orleans as an 11-point underdog. San Francisco (7-0) remained undefeated this year with their 51-13 blowout win over Carolina as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: The final score is not indicative of how close Arizona’s game was last week as they entered the fourth quarter trailing by just a 17-9 score before the Saints pulled away by scoring two final touchdowns. The Cardinals have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 21 points. Arizona only had the ball for 22:01 minutes in that game which provides some context as to why they only generated 237 yards of offense. The Cardinals are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona needs to tighten up on defense after allowing New Orleans to gain 510 total yards of offense. The Cardinals have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 500 yards in their last game. This team had been playing better under rookie head coach Kliff Kinsbury who has shown promise with his offensive schemes by not staying rigid with the Air Raid offense that he deployed at Texas Tech while incorporating more two-tight end formations to embrace the sophistication of the NFL. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray continues to improve as well — he is completing 64.8% of his passes while throwing for 1768 passing yards in his first eight starts. Murray will not be complemented by a talented running back in Kenyon Drake who was acquired from Miami at the trade deadline to replenish an injury-depleted backfield. San Francisco may be due for a letdown playing on a short week after their dominant win on Sunday. The 49ers are just 15-32-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by at least 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games on the road after win by at least two touchdowns. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Niners rushed for 232 yards which helped them gain 388 total yards. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they are just 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season — the 13 points that the Panthers scored on Sunday was the most they have allowed in their last four games. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 points in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona won’t lack for confidence in this game after sweeping the 49ers in their two meetings last year. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against division rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). THE SITUATION: Miami (277) has lost their first six games of the season after their 31-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 17-point underdog. Pittsburgh (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago back on October 13th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Miami has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Dolphins defense did not play too poorly — they held the Bills to just 305 total yards. This unit seems to be improving under head coach Brian Flores as they have held their last three opponents to just 335.3 total YPG. The former New England defensive coordinator also tapped Ryan Fitzpatrick as his starting quarterback last week — and he completed 23 of 35 passes for 282 yards while leading the offense to 381 total yards. But Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But this remains a Dolphins offense that is last in the NFL by scoring only 10.5 PPG and averaging just 258.7 total YPG. Miami stays on the road where they have played 13 of the last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points. The Dolphins have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And while Miami has covered the point spread just twice this season, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Pittsburgh has played a decisive 36 of their last 52 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. They also have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. The Steelers are averaging just 276.5 total YPG which is 29th in the NFL. After third-string QB Devlin Hodges was under center against the Chargers, head coach Mike Tomlin has named Mason Rudolph back as the starting quarterback after he cleared the concussion protocol. Rudolph is averaging only 178.3 passing YPG in his three starts this season with the coaching staff not comfortable in risking him taking chances down the field. The Pittsburgh defense has played much better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with only 292.3 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Miami-Pittsburgh ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (277) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (277). THE SITUATION: Miami (277) has lost their first six games of the season after their 31-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 17-point underdog. Pittsburgh (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago back on October 13th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS: There are two technical handicapping angles (for my eyes only) that compel me to love this situation for the Steelers. However, I am reticent to lay so many points in the NFL. But, what I like so much about these NFL primetime games is that I can invest a few hours of time to address and solve concerns I have regarding a handicapping situation. So, I went back to 2017 to look at how double-digit favorites perform. The bottom line reads that favorites laying 10 or more points are just 37-43 ATS since the start of the 2017 season. But, looking deeper, when these favorites are laying at least 14 points, these teams become a profitable 20-13 ATS including 6-3 ATS this season. Now, 20-13 ATS is not a reason to take favorite laying 14 or more points. However, that is enough for me to remove my predisposition to avoid otherwise good situations only because the point spread is so high. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and needs this victory to stay competitive in what is a still wannabe AFC North division. They are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Steelers are also a decisive 50-24-2 ATS in their last 76 games in October which includes them covering the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in October which is likely a testament to the continued improvement this team makes under Mike Tomlin and his coaching staff. The defense is certainly playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with only 292.3 total YPG. Pittsburgh returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football. Miami is last in the NFL by scoring 10.5 PPG and averaging just 258.7 total YPG — it might not take many points for the Steelers to be covering this point spread. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, Miami is 7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 12 road games as the underdog. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a double-digit underdog.

FINAL TAKE: I have often worried about this Steelers team in situations where they can get complacent. But with Ben Roethlisberger out the season and Mason Rudolph returning at quarterback, I think the sense of urgency should still permeate their locker room. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back as the starting QB for Miami — and he has thrown five interceptions already this season. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the league with 15 takeaways (all since Week Two) — and they are undefeated in their six games against Fitzy as a starter. Finally, I suspect Tomlin will not take the foot off the accelerator tonight as he looks to boost Rudolph’s confidence with a big offensive effort. Lets lay the wood. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (216) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (215). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 30-6 win at Denver as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (6-1) has won three straight games after their 42-24 win over Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City will be without Patrick Mahomes who was not cleared to play by the Chiefs medical staff — so it will be Matt Moore under center for this team. Moore is capable to run the Andy Reid offense albeit without the mobility and dynamic playmaking ability of Mahomes. Moore has 30 career starts under his belt whose 46 career touchdown passes are more than his career 36 interceptions. He will benefit from a full week of practice — and he has a healthy Tyreek Hill back at wide receiver with whom he connected for a touchdown last week. Moore was 10 of 19 for 117 yards with that TD and no interceptions in relief last week. The Chiefs should build off their momentum (and extra time to rest and prepare) after that win over the Broncos. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win over an AFC West foe — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Now KC returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while the Packers have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the spread in two of their last three contests. Green Bay is also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Packers offense is scoring only 22.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 274.0 total YPG away from home — and this is just their third game on the road this season. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. QB Aaron Rodgers will likely still be without his top target in wide receiver Davante Adams who is listed as doubtful with his turf toe injury.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City is not often an underdog anymore in the Mahomes era — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as the dog. The Chiefs remain loaded with talent even without their starting quarterback while this Packers team is a bit overrated when considering that they have a 6-1 record despite being outgained in yardage (-7.6 net YPG). 10* NFL Green Bay-Kansas City NBC-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (216) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (215). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Kansas City Chiefs (276). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-1) has won three straight games after their 42-24 win over Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 30-6 win at Denver as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Green Bay surrendered 329 passing yards to the Raiders, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The improved Packers defense is 9th in the NFL by allowing just 19.9 PPG — and that number drops to just 13.5 PPG in their two games on the road. But the Green Bay offense is scoring only 22.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 274.0 total YPG away from home. QB Aaron Rodgers will likely still be without his top target in wide receiver Davante Adams who is listed as doubtful with his turf toe injury. The Packers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Packers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Chiefs have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win on the road by at least three touchdowns. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will not be able to play in this game with his knee injury — so it will be Matt Moore under center for this team. While Moore was slid in relief last week by completing 10 of 11 passes for 76 yards, the journeyman is a big drop off in talent from what head coach Andy Reid can do with his offense with the mobile Mahomes under center. Remember, Moore was still on the street unsigned with a team when training camp started. But while Mahomes gets a vast majority of the attention with this team, what has gone under the radar is the improved play of their defense under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Over their last three games, the Chiefs have allowed only 18.7 PPG along with just 336.0 total YPG. KC returns home where they have played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: It has not been often that the Chiefs have played at home with the Total not in the 50s in the Mahomes era. Kansas City has played 51 of their last 80 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing 7 of their last 10 home games below the number in that range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Kansas City Chiefs (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (251) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (252). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) has lost three games in a row with their 27-21 upset loss at home to Arizona last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Detroit (2-3-1) has also lost three in a row with their 42-30 loss at home to Minnesota last week as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss to a divisional rival. While the loss to the Vikings was deflated, the players on this team were then dealt what they consider to be a sucker punch by management when starting safety Quandre Diggs was traded to the Seattle (who are overjoyed in snagging him). Diggs was a captain of this team — and the Lions only received a fifth round draft pick in return — which is why many players spoke out in anger about this move. Strong organizations could handle these kind of rifts but this is not the Detroit Lions who already had a shaky relationship with second-year head coach Matt Patricia. Don’t be surprised if this team comes out very flat as a touchdown favorite after this recent series of events. The Lions had been playing well by covering the point spread in four straight games before that double-digit loss to Minnesota — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The play of the defense has collapsed as of late which is not a good sign for Patricia who got this head coaching gig by being considered a defensive guru. After holding their first three opponents to 20.3 PG along with 397.4 total YPG, they have allowed their last three opponents to score 33.0 PPG while averaging 463.0 total YPG with that latter number being last in the NFL over that span. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Injuries are also beginning to impact this team. Cornerback Darius Slay is not available with a hamstring injury which challenges this defense even further — and starting running back Kerryon Johnson was placed on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. The Lions have been outrushed by -85 and -114 yards in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in two straight games. New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing three in a row. The Giants need to get off to a faster start after allowing Arizona to take a 17-14 halftime lead last week. Minnesota took an 18-7 halftime lead against them in the previous week — but New York has then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 17 first half points in two straight games. This team does have running back Saquon Barkley healthy along with tight end Evan Engram — and rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been solid. Jones completed 22 of 35 passes last week for 223 yards while adding 35 rushing yards as he displays mobility that Eli Manning was not able to offer this offense. The Lions do not have an elite pass rusher so Jones will benefit from the lack of pressure. The Giants have been a reliable road team as of late as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Giants need to limit turnovers as they have lost the turnover battle in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. And while New York has allowed at least 27 points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 25 points in three straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 52 of their last 83 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. With this unstable Detroit team beginning to show the signs of fracture, expect a close game from a Giants team that is optimistic about the future with Jones under center. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the New York Giants (251) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (259) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (260). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) looks to rebound from their embarrassing 33-0 loss at home to New England on Monday Night Football as a 9.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (3-4) comes off a 27-17 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York and quarterback Sam Darnold hit rock bottom last week against the outstanding Patriots defense. Darnold was “seeing ghosts” by leading an offense that generated only 154 total yards — and the Jets committed a whopping six turnovers for an insurmountable -5 net turnover margin. But this was also the team that had just defeated Dallas the previous week by a 24-22 score. Darnold had looked like he had turned a corner in his development before last week. Over his last four games last season, Darnold had a Quarterback Rating of 99.1 while throwing six touchdown passes and just one interception. And then in his two starts this season, Darnold had a QBR of 97.6 while completing 69.9% of his passes for 513 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception before the debacle against the Patriots. I expect a bounce-back effort this afternoon. The Jets have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after playing on Monday Night Football. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Jets have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Jacksonville may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory on the road. Furthermore, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while the Jags benefited from a +4 net turnover margin last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game. Jacksonville generated 460 yards of offense last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Despite that offensive output, rookie Gardner Minshew is regressing as a quarterback after his fantastic start. Minshew completed 66.7% of his passes with a 105.6 Passer Rating while averaging 255.8 passing YPG with nine touchdown passes and one interception in his first five starts. But over his last two games, Minshew has just a 68.9 Passer Rating while averaging only 209 passing YPG while completing just 47.5% of his passes with one TD pass and an interception. Now this team returns home where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars did suffocate the struggling Bengals rushing attack to just 33 rushing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New York Jets (259) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (101) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-6) enters this short week coming off a 9-0 loss at home in torrential rain against San Francisco as a 10-point underdog. Minnesota (5-2) has won three straight games with their 42-30 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: This is simply too many points for an underdog on a short week that has a solid defense. I know that Washington is an ugly team to take in this situation — but that explains why the line keeps rising with bettors preferring the “better” team. Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where no more than 14 combined points were scored. And while the Skins have only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Washington has also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games on the road after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Furthermore, the Skins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Minnesota has won three games in a row all by at least 12 points — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after at least two straight wins by double-digits. And while the Vikings have been favored (and covered the point spread) in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after three straight games as the favorite. Despite the recent success of their three-game winning streak, the Minnesota defense has 400 and 433 yards in each of their last two games. The Vikings have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: This remains Kirk Cousins playing in a primetime game where he has a 4-12 straight up record in his career. And this primetime game also offers a stage for Adrian Peterson to earn a measure of revenge against his old team in the Vikings. Minnesota can struggle with complacency — it is too much to expect them to cover this big point spread. 10* NFL Washington-Minnesota Fox-TV Special with the Washington Redskins (101) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-6) enters this short week coming off a 9-0 loss at home in torrential rain against San Francisco as a 10-point underdog. Minnesota (5-2) has won three straight games with their 42-30 win at Detroit last Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory on the road versus an NFC North rival. Minnesota has also played 6 straight games Under the Total at home after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Ever since Adam Thielen called out quarterback Kirk Cousins to stop being so cautious with his passing, the offense has taken a step to the next level as the Vikings have scored 36 PPG while averaging 480 total Yards-Per-Game over that span. But the Vikings have played 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three games. Minnesota generated 502 yards of offense against the Lions last week — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Unfortunately for Cousins on this short week, he will not have the services of Thielen who has been declared out for this game with his hamstring injury. Thielen has become Cousins' most reliable target and has already caught six touchdown passes this year — and his absence exposes the lack of the third reliable target after Stefon Diggs with this offense. Head coach Mike Zimmer will want his defense to tighten things up after allowing 433 to Detroit last week. The Vikings gave played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Minnesota ranks 6th in the NFL respectively by allowing 17.6 PPG and just 327.9 total YPG. The Vikings are the only team in the league to finish in the top-four in total defense for three straight seasons. Minnesota returns home where they have played 5 of the last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. Washington will struggle to score points tonight as they have scored only 27 combined points over their last four games — and they have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games. The Skins have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The problems start on their offensive line where the team misses left tackle Trent Williams who continues his holdout to escape the franchise. Washington then lacks reliable receivers with tight end Jordan Reed injured once again this season and wideouts Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson not legitimate number one or number two options. The Vikings will feel confident to stuff the box to slow down the Washington rushing attack that interim head coach Bill Callahan has made clear is his priority with his offense. Quarterback Case Keenum is in the bottom-ten in most passing categories this season. The Skins are rank 12.9 PPG this season while averaging 267.6 total YPG which ranks 30th and 29th in the league. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total.

TOTAL DEFENSE: There is talent on the Washington defense who should feel pretty good about themselves after limiting the 49ers offense to just 283 total yards (albeit it in terrible weather conditions). The Skins have played 6 straight games Under the Total including their 33-7 loss to New England for Sunday Night Football back on October 6th. Expect a result similar to that finds a way to stay below the number. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (101) and the Minnesota Vikings (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: New York (1-4) looks to build off their 24-22 upset win at home against Dallas last Sunday as a 7-point underdog. New England (6-0) comes off a 35-14 win at the New York Giants as a 16.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago back on October 10th. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York played much better with Sam Darnold back under center after missing three games after contracting mononucleosis. The second-year quarterback completed 23 of 32 passes for 338 yards with two touchdown passes while leading the Jets’ to 382 yards of offense in their upset victory over the Cowboys. Darnold seemed to have taken a big step in his development in the last quarter of the season last year. Over his last four games, Darnold had a Quarterback Rating of 99.1 while throwing six touchdown passes and just one interception. In his two starts this season, Darnold has a QBR of 97.6 while completing 69.9% of his passes for 513 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception. While the Jets are scoring only 12.6 PPG this season, that number does bump up to 18 PPG in Darold’s two games which looks pretty good when adding the ten or so points as the underdog in this game. New York has covered the point spread in a decisive 35 of their last 55 home games after playing a game at home in their last game. The Jets are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games in the month of October. New England was a 16-point favorite in their 33-7 win at Washington two weeks ago before their easy win at MetLife against the Giants last week. But the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning their last two games by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as a double-digit favorite. And while New England has outgained their last two opponents by 214 and 222 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outgaining their last two opponents by at least 150 net yards in both contests. Furthermore, while the Patriots lead the NFL by averaging 31.7 PPG this season, that number drops to 25.9 PPG when taking away their three defensive touchdowns and two additional touchdowns coming from special teams. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 road games when favored by 7.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to the Meadowlands to face the Jets on the road. Expect a closer than expected contest in this rematch from New England’s 30-14 victory in Foxboro back on September 22nd again a New York team playing without Darnold. The Jets have covered the pint spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least two touchdowns. 10* NFL New England-NY Jets ESPN Special with the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: New England (6-0) comes off a 35-14 win at the New York Giants as a 16.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago back on October 10th. New York (1-4) looks to build off their 24-22 upset win at home against Dallas last Sunday as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Under in that Patriots game against the Giants — and with both teams scoring on a defensive touchdown along with New England blocking a punt for another 6-yard touchdown, that play was spoiled. Where was one more defensive/special teams touchdown in the second half of last night’s game?!? Defensive touchdowns and special teams touchdowns go a long way for results to find the Over. However, it would also be Fool’s Gold to be chasing or expecting non-offensive touchdowns to play a role in the next particular game at hand. The Patriots have scored three defensive touchdowns this season while adding another two touchdowns from special teams. For our purposes, while New England is averaging 31.7 PPG this season — that number drops to just 25.9 PPG when taking away those five non-offensive touchdowns. Surprisingly, the reigning Super Bowl champions have also surrendered three defensive touchdowns this season. That means that while they lead the NFL by a mile by allowing just 8.0 PPG — that number drops to an incredible 4.5 PPG when only accounting for scoring allowed by their outstanding defense. The Patriots are also second in the NFL by allowing only 234.7 total YPG — and they rank second in run defense (73.7 rushing YPG) and pass defense (161.0 passing YPG). Tom Brady completed 31 of 41 passes last week against the Giants for 334 yards while leading the offense to 427 yards — but New England has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards. Brady will not have Josh Gordon and Rex Burkhead as targets tonight with both players being out with injuries. The Patriots stay on the road where they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. New England has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. New York dusted off their real playbook for Sam Darnold last week after first-year head coach Adam Gace put his real offense under wraps after his quarterback was injured in the opening game of the season. Darnold completed 23 of 32 passes for 338 yards while leading the Jets’ offense to 382 total yards — but now Bill Belichick has had a full week to study Gace’s preferred plays. The Jets are still averaging just 205 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not averaging more than 225 total YPG over their last three games. While Darold’s return helps this offense, the Jets are struggling to run the football as they are 31st in the league by averaging just 64.0 rushing YPG. They only managed 56 rushing yards last week with Darnold back under center and they have not rushed for more than 67 yards in their last three games. New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in three straight games. The Jets stay at home for this game where they are only allowing 20.7 PPG. New York gets an appearance on Monday Night Football where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Patriots 30-14 win over the Jets back on September 22nd. New England has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against AFC East opponents — and New York has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against AFC East divisional rivals. These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at the Jets’ MetLife Stadium. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (474) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (473). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 24-22 upset loss in New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite. Philadelphia (3-3) also looks to rebound from a 38-20 loss at Minnesota where they were 3.5-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: This is one of those games where careful handicappers and bettors wait for the final active/inactive reports before making a final call. The good news for Dallas is that they look to get a handful of important players back tonight. Most importantly, their outstanding left tackle, Tryon Smith, will be protecting Dak Prescott’s blind side tonight as he returns from his ankle injury. Offensive linemen La’el Collins and Zack Martin have also been upgraded to probable which is critical for this team — the offensive line is the straw that stirs the drink for this team as it both fuels the ground game for Ezekiel Elliott while also protecting Prescott who is a much better passer when his jersey is clean. Prescott will also have his top two receiving targets in Amari Cooper and Randall Cobb for this game. The Cowboys have pulled off the rare and dubious feat of being upset in three straight games — usually, these teams eventually become underdogs. It is telling that Dallas remains favored for this NFC East showdown tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three of their last four contests — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against fellow opponents from the NFC East. The Cowboys did manage to generate 399 yards last week even with their injuries on offense — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They return home where they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 511.0 total YPG. Dallas did surrender 326 passing yards to the Jets last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 300 yards in their last game. Philadelphia is also feeling with a bevy of injuries but the news is not as good for them. On offense, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, running back Darren Sproles, and left tackle Jason Peters are all out. Sproles is a nice change-of-pace back but the Eagles have other options. The absence of Jackson really hurts as he is the team’s most credible deep threat which opens up the field for Carson Wentz. Peters is an All-Pro left tackle. On defense, Philly looks likely to get cornerback Jalen Mills back on the field but his partner Ronald Mills remains questionable with his hamstring. But linebacker Nigel Bradham is out along with nickel back Avonte Maddox. The defense is already without starting linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill and defensive linemen Tim Jernigan and Malik Jackson. The depth this team enjoyed at the beginning of the season is already being severely tested. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road. Philadelphia allowed 447 yards to the Vikings last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay on the road for a second straight week where they are allowing 29.5 PPG along with 435.0 total YPG. On offense, the Eagles are only averaging 349.3 total YPG which is 20th in the NFL. Philly has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: Wentz has not been as nearly as successful when playing on the road where he has lost fourteen of his twenty-three starts. In this gut-check game for both teams, look for the home field to make the difference. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Dallas NBC-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (474) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their 38-20 loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (3-3) has lost three straight games after their 24-22 upset loss at New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last games Over the Total after a point spread defeat. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Eagles are dealing with a host of injuries on defense — and, while corner Jalen Mills appears likely to take the field again tonight, his sidekick, Ronald Darby remains questionable with his hamstring injury. Philadelphia is allowing their home hosts to score 29.7 PPG while averaging 435.0 total YPG. But the Eagles offense did generate 400 yards in defeat last week. Over their last three games, Philadelphia has scored 28.3 PPG. Now they stay on the road where they have played 24 of their last 34 road games Over the Total — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a small underdog of up to 3 points. The Eagles have also played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have suffered three straight upset losses which should ensure they are feisty with desperation in this contest. Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after suffering two straight point spread losses — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after two straight upset losses. The Cowboys offense has sputtered as of late as they have scored only 18.7 PPG in their losing streak — but they are getting healthier again for this game. Left tackle Tyron Smith has been upgraded to probable with his ankle injury — and wide receivers Amari Cooper and  Reggie Cobb along with guard Zack Martin have all been upgraded to probable for tonight. Dallas did generate 399 yards of offense last week in defeat — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys return home where they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 511.0 total YPG. But they are also giving up 362.7 total YPG at home which is more than 30 YPG higher than their season average. Dallas has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 3 points. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: This is a crucial game for both teams in the NFC East title race — the loser will have an uphill climb to make the playoffs. Philly has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against NFC East foes — and Dallas has played 6 straight games Over the Total against NFC East foes. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (472) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (471). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-2) returns to the field again after getting embarrassed in London back on October 6th in their 24-21 upset loss to Oakland as a 6.5-point favorite. New Orleans (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 13-6 upset win at Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while the Bears managed only 236 yards of offense, Chicago has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Chase Daniel was the starting quarterback across the pond but Mitchell Trubisky will be back under center with the additional time to rehab his bum shoulder. Trubisky has struggled this season but I think he will benefit from the time off to regain perspective about his role in the offense. That game with the Raiders flew over the 40 point total — and Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a game that finished Over the Total. The Bears also get one of their important offensive weapons back in Taylor Gabriel who scored a touchdown in his last game on Monday Night Football before suffering a concussion that has kept him out this month. Chicago returns home where they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Chicago has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams from the NFC. New Orleans will be without running back Alvin Kamara who is dealing with an ankle. While Teddy Bridgewater has been solid in relief of the injured Drew Brees, the absence of Kamara leaves this Saints’ offense lacking star power on the offensive side of the football. That is not a good sign when facing this elite Bears defense that is allowing only 13.8 PPG along with just 312.2 total YPG. New Orleans is scoring only 18.3 PPG on the road while averaging just 278.3 total YPG. The Saints outgained the Jaguars by +100 yards last week after winning the yardage battle against Dallas by +205 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games after outgaining their last two opponents by +100 net yards. And while the Jaguars managed only 75 rushing yards last week, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints’ 5-1 record is accompanied by a mere +4.0 net YPG margin this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (472) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (457) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (458). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-2) has won two straight games after their 38-20 win over Philadelphia last week as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 23-22 loss at Green Bay on Monday Night Football as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKING MINUS THE POINTS: Don’t be surprised if the Lions are emotionally flat in this game after they feel they were jobbed by the referees on Monday night. This is a losing franchise that has little experience with successfully picking themselves off the mat when facing adversity. That narrow loss came on the heels of their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City in their previous game before a bye week where everything was focused on the Packers. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after losing two straight games by 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing their last two games where they did cover the point spread in both games. The Lions have met point spread expectations in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Detroit has won the turnover battle in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after having at least a +1 net turnover margin in three straight contests. Now the Lions return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog getting up to 3 points. They host a Vikings team that has owned them as of late. Minnesota swept the divisional series last season while not allowing Detroit to score more than 9 points in either contest. Matthew Stafford has lost his last three starts against the Vikings with only two touchdown passes in those three contests — and two of those games were at home at Ford Field. Minnesota has seen much better play from their quarterback since wide receiver Adam Thielen called him out publicly for his need to be more aggressive in the passing game. Kirk Cousins has responded with two straight 300-yard passing games with six touchdown passes. He has completed 78.5% of his passes in those games while averaging a healthy 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Vikings are very tough to beat when they get their offense cranking since their defense has not allowed more than 21 points all season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Minnesota has generated 447 and 490 yards over their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Vikings go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams who are not winning more than 50% of their games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games when playing in a dome. Furthermore, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is 17-8-3 ATS in their last 28 meetings with the Lions — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Detroit. Look for the Lions to find a way to lose another one. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (457) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (303) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 31-24 upset loss at home to Houston on Sunday. Denver (2-4) has won their last two games with their 16-0 shutout win over Tennessee as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City is struggling with a bevy of injuries — but they did get Patrick Mahomes’ favorite target back last week in wide receiver Tyreek Hill. After suffering two straight upset losses at the hands of the Colts and then the Texans last week, look for the Chiefs to get back to their winning ways tonight. Kansas City is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games against teams from the AFC. Additionally, the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams from the AFC West. And while Kansas City surrendered 472 yards of offense to the Texans last week, they have then covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games on the road after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Denver is scoring just 17.7 PPG this season which is 26th in the NFL — and they are averaging only 336.2 total YPG which is also 25th in the league. The Broncos are likely to settle for field goals with the Chiefs scoring touchdowns to pull out this game. Denver has played their last two games Under the Total which has helped them win both games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. The Broncos are also 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing 14 or fewer points. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against fellow AFC West opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 meetings with the Broncos — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against them in Denver. 10* NFL Kansas City-Denver Fox-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (303) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (303) and the Denver Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 31-24 upset loss at home to Houston on Sunday. Denver (2-4) has won their last two games with their 16-0 shutout win over Tennessee as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos stymied the Titans by limiting them to just 204 yards of offense. Despite losing Bradley Chubb to a season-ending injury, Denver still has a loaded defense that should continue to improve under first-year head coach Vic Fangio who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the league. The Broncos are 4th in the NFL by allowing only 307.8 total YPG. Denver is also 7th in the NFL by giving up just 17.7 PPG — and that number drops to 14.0 PPG when playing at home. The Under is 10-1-1 in the Broncos last 12 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Under is 5-0-1 in Denver’s last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos stay at home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. But this Denver offense is scoring just 17.7 PPG which is 26th in the NFL. They will likely look to run the football to burn time off the clock to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field — the Chiefs have allowed their last two opponents to keep their offense off the field for at least 37 minutes. Additionally, the Under is 7-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 8 games against teams from the AFC West. Kansas City has seen their offense slowed down over the last two weeks where they have gained only 324 and 309 yards. Not being on the field has played a large role — but so too has been the ankle injury to Mahomes which has slowed down his mobility. Furthermore, defenses have taken a page from the Matt Patricia defensive playbook where the Lions found success in playing press man-to-man coverage against the Chiefs wide receivers which has increased the demand on Mahomes to deliver with pinpoint accuracy which is not his strongest suit. The injuries on offense is certainly not helping the Andy Reid offense operate at its highest efficiency. Kansas City is missing two offensive linemen in All-Pro left tackle Jeff Fisher and right tackle Andrew Wylie. And while wide receiver Tyreek Hill returned to the field last week, Mahomes will be without wide receiver Sammie Watkins who is still dealing with a hamstring. The Chiefs have suffered two straight upset losses at home after their 19-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a double-digit favorite. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upset losses.

FINAL TAKE: The Kansas City defense is also banged up which has played a role in them surrendering 416.7 total YPG over their last three games. Opponents have amassed at least 180 rushing yards against the Chiefs in four straight games — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in three straight contests. Kansas City has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (303) and the Denver Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (275) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (276). THE SITUATION: Detroit (2-1-1) takes the field again after their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City as a 7.5-point underdog two weeks ago back on September 29th. Green Bay (4-1) comes off a 34-24 upset win in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has gotten healthy with the benefit of their bye week. The Lions have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a bye week. The eye test suggests that the Lions played pretty good defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Head coach Matt Patricia has proven himself one of the best schematic defensive coaches in the league — and it is telling that the Chiefs have scored only 37 combined points in their last two games since that game with Detroit. Bill Belichick also used some of the Patricia blueprints in the Lions’ defensive game plan against the Rams in last year’s Super Bowl. Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while the Lions allowed 438 yards to the Chiefs in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Detroit did generate 447 yards in that contest. The Lions are a surprising 6th in the NFL by averaging 387.5 total YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Matthew Stafford is finding success in an offense that is asking him to do less — he completed 21 of 34 passes for 291 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions against Kansas City. Detroit has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Lions go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road — and they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win. The Packers defeated the Cowboys despite being outgained by a 563 to 335 margin. A +3 net turnover margin played a big role in Green Bay pulling off that upset. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Packers have won four of their five games despite being outgained by -39.6 net YPG. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC North foes.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing on Monday Night Football — and the Lions have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on Monday Night Football. Detroit has won four straight games against the Packers while winning three of their last four games in Lambeau Field — so they will be confident playing this game. Expect a close one where the dog will have a chance to win outright. 10* NFL Detroit-Green Bay ESPN Special with the Detroit Lions (275) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (275) and the Green Bay Packers (276). THE SITUATION: Detroit (2-1-1) takes the field again after their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City as a 7.5-point underdog two weeks ago back on September 29th. Green Bay (4-1) comes off a 34-24 upset win in Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They also have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total on the road after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while Detroit allowed the Chiefs to generate 438 yards of offense, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. One of the touchdowns that Kansas City scored was on a 100-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The eye test suggests that the Lions played pretty good defense to slow down Patrick Mahomes. Head coach Matt Patricia has proven himself one of the best schematic defensive coaches in the league — and it is telling that the Chiefs have scored only 37 combined points in their last two games since that game with Detroit. Bill Belichick also used some of the Patricia blueprints in the Lions’ defensive game plan against the Rams in last year’s Super Bowl. Patricia has had two weeks to prepare his defense for the Packers’ offense — and Detroit has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. Patricia has also finally gotten the Lions offense to emphasize the run to make things easier on quarterback Matthew Stafford. Detroit held the ball for 33:55 minutes against the Chiefs and controlling the time of possession to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field will be the formula tonight. The Lions gained 447 yards against Kansas City — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6games Under the Total after playing on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Packers offense will be limited with wide receiver Davante Adams still out with his turf toe which takes away Rodgers’ most reliable passing target. Look for the Packers to also emphasize the run to take the pressure off Rodgers and their defense that surrendered 563 total yards to the Cowboys. Dallas passed for 441 passing yards in that game — but Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Packers have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 500 or more yards in their last game. There is no question this Green Bay defense has improved with the additions of the Smith brothers in Za’Darius and Preston who were signed as free agents in the offseason. The Packers are 8th in the NFL this season by allowing only 18.6 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against NFC North foes. Expect a lower scoring game between these two teams that have re-defined their identities to be run-oriented defensive teams. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (275) and the Green Bay Packers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) and the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) looks to rebound from their 26-23 loss in overtime last week at home against Baltimore as a 7.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 20-13 upset loss at home to Denver as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Pittsburgh will be down to their fourth-string quarterback from training camp in rookie Devlin Hodges who will be playing for Mason Rudolph who has not cleared the concussion protocol. The Steelers also lost one of their important offensive weapons in Jaylen Samuels who is out indefinitely after suffering a knee injury last week. Pittsburgh managed only 77 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Now the Steelers go back on the road where they have played 37 of their last 52 games Under the Total — and they have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Pittsburgh defense is playing better after a slow start. They have held their last three opponents to just 298.0 total YPG. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Chargers managed only 246 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Now Los Angeles stays at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers defense has also played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 319.7 total YPG. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) and the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) looks to rebound from their 26-23 loss in overtime last week at home against Baltimore as a 7.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 20-13 upset loss at home to Denver as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chargers are overvalued right now with bettors remembering their nice playoff run last season. Injuries have devastated this team. The defense is playing without their best player in safety Derwin James. The offensive line is down two starters with left tackle Russell Okung on the PUP list with his heart issue and now center Mike Pouncey being played on Injured Reserve this week with a neck injury. Los Angeles was outgained by -104 net yards last week to a winless Broncos team. They do have running back Melvin Gordon back — but Austin Ekeler was doing quite fine (or better?) as they lead running back in his absence. Quarterback Philip Rivers may be showing the signs of his age — the Charters offense only generated 246 yards last week. The Chargers have then ailed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles stays at home where they simply do not have much of an advantage playing in a smaller soccer stadium in front of a fan base that is more enamored with the Rams. The Chargers are 1-2 at home this season where they are being outscored by -2.7 PPG and outgained by -18.3 net YPG. Los Angeles is 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Pittsburgh will be relying on Devlin Hodges as their quarterback with Mason Rudolph not yet having cleared the concussion protocol. I first learned about Hodges when handicapping preseason football which requires getting a good grasp on every backup QB. Hodges broke the all-time passing yards record in the FCS last year playing for Samford. He has impressed NFL scouts with his moxie and ability to operate practice squad offenses. The Steelers were so impressed with him from raining camp that they felt comfortable trading away Josh Dobbs despite the possibility that they would need their third-string QB. And Hodges was confident and effective in relief last week as he completed 7 of 9 passes for 68 yards while adding another 20 yards on the ground in leading the offense to a scoring drive and getting his team into overtime. I suspect the Steelers’ coaching staff do not feel they will miss a beat with him under center when compared to Rudolph. And this Pittsburgh franchise still thinks they can make the playoffs with them just two games behind the Ravens. Remember, Indianapolis made the playoffs last year despite a 1-4 start. Pittsburgh has one of the most underrated defenses in the league right now who have forced 12 turnovers since Week Two. The Steelers defense has also given up no more than 139 passing yards in two straight weeks. This organization was very high on what their defense would do this season after they drafted Devin Bush in the first round which provided them speed at the linebacker position that they have lacked since the injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. The Steelers are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October — and they are a decisive 49-24-2 ATS in their last 75 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Bet against this Steelers franchise as a road underdog at your own peril. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 63 of their last 104 road games when getting the points — and this includes them covering the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when getting up to 7 points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (267) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (268). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-4) has lost three straight games after their 53-32 loss at Houston last week as a 4-point underdog. Arizona (1-3-1) earned their first victory of the Kyler Murray (and Kliff Kingsbury) era with their 26-23 upset win at Cincinnati last week as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a “gotta have it” game for this Atlanta team. The urgency of the situation compelled head coach Dan Quinn to keep his team out west to prepare for this game. I like the road trip workweek mentality — and it should help this team address some of their problems on defense. The biggest problem for this team is they have been once again hit by the injury bug with the Regression Gods paying them back for their Super Bowl season three years ago where their starting five on the offensive line played every game. The Falcons have bounced back to cover the pint spread in 9 straight games after a loss by at least three touchdowns. Atlanta surrendered 592 yards last week with 166 of those yards being on the ground. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 53 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. And while Houston averaged a whopping 7.49 Yards-Per-Play last week, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 road games after a game where they allowed at least 6.5 YPP. While this Falcons team may be permanently damaged with their psyche after blowing that Super Bowl game against the Patriots, Quinn has not forgotten how to coach defense. Not many individuals have served as defensive coordinator for a Super Bowl champion and then later served as the head coach for a second team to reach the Super Bowl. He should have his team prepared for the Texas Tech offense that the Cardinals operate. The offense is still clicking behind Matt Ryan. They gained 373 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. I don’t give Arizona much credit for defeating a Bengals team riddled with injuries and down to their fourth left tackle. Yet they still allowed that offense to generate 370 total yards — and they are just 11-24-1 ATS in their last 36 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cardinals are 28th in the NFL by allowing 27.6 PPG — and they are 29th in the league by allowing 408.0 total YPG. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they are 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games after a straight-up win.

FINAL TAKE: Look for the Falcons’ veteran experience to make the difference in this one. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Atlanta Falcons (267) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (266) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (265). Los Angeles (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 30-29 loss at Seattle as a 1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago back on October 3rd. San Francisco (4-0) remained one of two undefeated teams this season with their 31-3 win over Cleveland as a 5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should benefit from the extra time to prepare for this game. Excluding last year’s Super Bowl, head coach Sean McVay has won ten straight games when coaching with extra days to prepare with his offense scoring 37 PPG — and the Rams are 8-1-1 ATS in those ten games. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Los Angeles will be without running back Todd Gurley for this game but they have talent behind in Malcolm Brown who starred at Texas along with their rookie Darrell Henderson who was a juggernaut at Memphis. The Rams managed to rush for only 82 yards against the Seahawks — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards. Now they return home where QB Jared Goff usually plays much better than on the road. Los Angeles is scoring 33.5 PPG at home while averaging 449.0 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has to tighten things up on defense after allowing 429 yards in their last game. 262 of those yards were in the air — but the Rams have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Niners have been anointed to the Super Bowl by many after their dominant performance in primetime on Monday. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The 49ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after playing on Monday Night Football. San Francisco generated 446 yards of offense in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. This team was already playing with their left tackle Joe Staley — but their vaunted ground game has taken two more big hits for this game with both right tackle Mike McGlinchey and blocking fullback Kyle Juszczyk both out for this game with knee injuries. This is a team that has benefited from an easy early schedule against four teams that have combined for a 4-15 record after the Buccaneers loss this morning. The Niners are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the NFC West — and Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC West foes. The Rams have a significant experience edge when it comes to playing in high profile games as of late. They should pull away for a comfortable win. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (266) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (260) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (259). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (2-3) looks to bounce-back from their 34-27 loss at Carolina last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (4-1) has won three straight games after their 31-24 win at home against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: At first glance, it might look easy to take the Saints coming off three straight victories with two of them against quality competition in Dallas and Seattle despite being without Drew Brees under center. Teddy Bridgewater has proven himself very capable as the starting quarterback for this team. Yet after two upset wins against the Cowboys and Seahawks and then grinding out a win against a divisional rival that always plays them tough, this Saints team may be due for an emotional letdown against an unfamiliar AFC opponent. All four of New Orleans wins have been by one scoring possession — so they are living dangerously. This team has given up more points than they have scored this season — and they are being outgained by -15.2 net YPG. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game against an NFC South rival. This is also a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass. In their two games on the road, they have generated just 244 and 265 yards of offense. Remember, that win in Seattle was fueled by a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown that helped them overcome getting outgained by -250 yards! Star running back Alvin Kamara will play in this game despite an ankle injury but he does not appear to be playing at 100%. Jacksonville returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams who are not winning more than 50% of their games on the road. The Jaguars are very happy with the play of rookie Gardner Minshew. He is only the third quarterback in the Super Bowl era to post a Quarterback Rating over 100 after his first three starts. Minshew has nine touchdown passes to zero interceptions in his career after completing 26 of 44 passes for 374 yards with two TD passes last week — and he added another 42 yards on the ground. The Jaguars generated 507 yards last week against a good Panthers defense while averaging 6.76 Yards-Per-Play after gaining 455 yards at Denver the week before while averaging 6.1 YPP — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Running back Leonard Fournette vowed to have a big year this season and he has rushed for over 100 yards in his last two games while accumulating 305 yards after contact which is tops in the league. The Jacksonville defense has to play better after allowing 445 yards to the Panthers. Carolina averaged 7.67 YPP in that game — but Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The good news for this defense is that Jalen Ramsey will be back on the field again after having a heart-to-heart this week with the owner.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars are favored in this game because the underlying numbers suggest these teams are much closer to being even — especially with Brees still out. Let’s trust the numbers. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars (260) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (256) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (255). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-3) looks to rebound from their 31-3 loss at San Francisco last Monday night as a 5-point underdog. Seattle (4-1) comes off a 30-29 win over the Los Angeles Rams back on October 3rd two Thursdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Young but talented teams tend to be inconsistent. I look for Cleveland to bounce-back with one of their better efforts of the season this afternoon. The Browns have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Quarterback Baker Mayfield plays better when humbled rather than when overconfident. The Browns have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Look for the Cleveland defense to play better — and they are getting Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back in their secondary for this game. The Browns have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Cleveland defense is 5th in the NFL by limiting their opponents to converting on just 31.3 of their 3rd downs. And led by Myles Garrett, the Browns are tied for 6th in the league with 16 sacks — and they are 7th in the NFL by allowing only 206.4 passing YPG. This is a tough assignment for a Seahawks team that is without two starters on their offensive line in Duane Brown and D.J. Fluker who are dealing with biceps and hamstring injuries respectively. Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks suffer a letdown traveling east for this early kickoff after they defeated Arizona by a 27-10 score before their big win over the Rams. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last two games against NFC West foes where they scored at least 24 points in both games. The Seahawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four of their last five games. Seattle held the ball for over 35 minutes of that game while churning out 25 first downs against LA — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a game where they controlled the clock for at least 34 minutes while getting at least 24 first downs. And while Russell Wilson completed 17 of 23 passes for 268 yards in that win, the Seahawks are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland matches up with Seattle when it comes to overall talent. Look for the Browns to take a page out of the Seahawks playbook by running the ball and controlling the clock to keep Wilson off the field. Cleveland opened as a small favorite and now find themselves bet down to a small underdog in many spots. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but take the points for some insurance) Underdog Special with the Cleveland Browns (256) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (103) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (104). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-10 loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog. New England (5-0) returns home after playing their last two games on the road after their 33-7 win at Washington as a 15.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York should respond with a strong effort — they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Admittedly, the Giants are a M*A*S*H unit right now. The Giants were already without star running back Sequon Barkley with his knee injury but the injuries began to mount in that game with the carry-over being significant for this game being played on a short week. Barkley’s backup, Wayne Gallman, is out tonight having not cleared the concussion protocol leaving the rushing duties to Jon Hillman who came off the practice squad a few weeks ago. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is also without his top two receiving threats in wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram as they deal with a concussion and MCL injuries respectively. But at least this team got wide receiver, Golden Tate, back last week after he served his four-game suspension. And this is a team playing with optimism given the hope that rookie quarterback Daniel Jones provides for the future. The Giants had the best statistical offense in the preseason with Jones getting plenty of experience playing with the backup weapons so there will be familiarity for this offense when it takes the field tonight. New York managed only 211 total yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 250 total yards in their last contest. The Giants were outrushed by 147 net yards to the Vikings last week — but they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in their last game. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Patriots will be leaning on their defense for this game given the injuries this team is experiencing on offense. Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett is out with a hamstring injury while wide receivers Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman are both listed as questionable with a knee and chest injury. The targets for Tom Brady in the passing game were already a big question mark for this team as they transition away from the Rob Gronkowski era. The lack of an elite weapon in the passing game is why the team took a chance on Antonio Brown before he proved to be too much trouble for what he offered. It was the Brown signing that compelled the Patriots to trade away wide receiver Demaryius Thomas early in the season when it looked like they had too many bodies at that position. Now this team could use a reliable healthy body at that position with their first-round draft choice, N’Keal Harry, on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. New England is scoring 31.0 PPG this season — but that includes their defense scoring four times already this year with another touchdown scored by their special teams via a blocked punt. Take away those five defensive/special team scores and the Patriots scoring average drops by a full touchdown to a 24.0 PPG clip — and those 17 or so points they are laying tonight begins to look pretty thin. The defending Super Bowl champions have also benefited from an easy early schedule. Take away their 16-10 victory over Buffalo where they were outgained by a 375-224 margin and out-first downed by a 23 to 11 gap, the remaining four teams on the New England schedule consisting of Pittsburgh, Miami, the Jets, and the Skins are a combined 1-17. Throw in some 20 MPH winds with light rain and the Patriots content with an easy win where the team remains healthy — and I will hold my nose while investing in the value of all those points with the dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 straight meetings with the Patriots — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Foxboro to face New England. 10* NFL NY Giants-New England Fox-TV Special with the New York Giants (103) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). THE SITUATION: New York (2-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-10 loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point underdog. New England (5-0) returns home after playing their last two games on the road after their 33-7 win at Washington as a 15.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots had plead 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win  — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least five games in a row. Additionally, New England has played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Patriots have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. New England have one of their best defenses in the Bill Belichick era as they are allowing a mere 6.8 PPG while holding their opponents to just 238.4 total YPG. The Patriots will be leaning on their defense for this game given the injuries this team is experiencing on offense. Wide receiver Phillip Dorsett is out with a hamstring injury while wide receivers Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman are both listed as questionable with a knee and chest injury. The targets for Tom Brady in the passing game were already a big question mark for this team as they transition away from the Rob Gronkowski era. The lack of an elite weapon in the passing game is why the team took a chance on Antonio Brown before he proved to be too much trouble for what he offered. It was the Brown signing that compelled the Patriots to trade away wide receiver Demaryius Thomas early in the season when it looked like they had too many bodies at that position. Now this team could use a reliable healthy body at that position with their first-round draft choice, N’Keal Harry, on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. Brady was still able to complete 28 of 42 passes for 348 yards last week against the Skins en route to 442 total yards of offense — but New England has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game while also playing 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Patriots return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. New York managed only 211 total yards last week with just 147 net yards in the passing game. The Giants were already without star running back Sequon Barkley with his knee injury but the injuries began to mount in that game with the carry-over being significant for this game being played on a short week. Barkley’s backup, Wayne Gallman, is out tonight having not cleared the concussion protocol leaving the rushing duties to Jon Hillman who came off the practice squad a few weeks ago. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is also without his top two receiving threats in wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram as they deal with a concussion and MCL injuries respectively. As it is, the Giants have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 passing yards. New York also allowed 211 rushing yards in that contest — and they have played 35 of their last 52 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: With the Giants riddled with injuries, expect a similar score as their 28-10 loss last week to the Vikings. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing the Patriots in Foxboro. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (103) and the New England Patriots (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (477) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (478). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-2) looks to build off their 40-25 victory in Baltimore against the Ravens last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-0) takes the field again after their 24-20 victory over Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite back on September 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco generated 436 yards of offense against the Steelers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The 49ers have also failed to covet the point spread in 6 straight games after their bye week. This team entered the regular season with significant concerns about the health of quarterback Jimmy Garappolo with his returning from knee surgery. Now this team has been overhyped with the two weeks of remaining one of the two remaining undefeated in the league. Yet the Niners have benefited from an easy schedule that has featured Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, and Mason Rudolph. San Francisco has also won their first three games despite committing eight turnovers. The 49ers turned the ball over five times in their win against the Steelers while winning that game despite a -3 net turnover margin. The 49ers have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. San Francisco stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games when favored by no more than 7 points. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of October. Cleveland got back to their ground game going last week in their win on the road against the Ravens. They rushed for 193 yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Browns generated 528 yards of offense in that game while averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. Cleveland stays on the road this week where they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns are still dealing with injuries in their defensive backfield with Denzel Ward and Phillip Gaines still out with injuries — but this team has veterans that played well against the Ravens last week in their absence. San Francisco is also dealing with some significant injuries with left tackle Joe Staley and defensive back Ahkello Witherspoon both out for this game. 10* NFL Cleveland-San Francisco ESPN Special with the Cleveland Browns (477) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-2) looks to build off their 40-25 victory in Baltimore against the Ravens last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-0) takes the field again after their 24-20 victory over Pittsburgh as a 6-point favorite back on September 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The offense under head coach Kyle Shanahan may get the headlines with the Niners 3-0 start — but it is the play of the defense that has led the way for this team. San Fransisco is third in the NFL by holding teams to just 283.3 total YPG — and they are allowing only 18.0 PPG. The 49ers defense has been helped by Shanahan calling running plays in 57% of their plays from scrimmage which burns clocks and keeps that defense fresh and off the field. San Francisco held the ball for 36:17 minutes against the Steelers which helped them limit the Pittsburgh offense to just 239 total yards of offense. The Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers have outgained their last two opponents by +197 and +256 net yards — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +150 net yards in two straight games. San Francisco went into halftime of that game trailing by a 6-3 score — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. Jimmy Garappolo did pass for 277 yards in that contest — but the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco stays at home for this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over an AFC North rival. The Browns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. That game flew over the 47-point Total — and Cleveland has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Browns have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Cleveland committed to running the football to win on the road against the Ravens — they generated 193 rushing yards en route to their 528 total yards of offense. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Browns’ last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. Cleveland has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns are scoring just 22.2 PPG this season even after putting up 40 points last week. Expect a lower scoring game tonight with both teams deploying run-first offensive game plans. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (477) and the San Francisco 49ers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-2) looks to rebound from their 31-24 upset loss at home to Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained undefeated last week with their 34-30 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should bounce-back with a strong effort in this game — they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 56 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have played two straight games where at least 51 combined points were scored, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. Jacoby Brissett has proven himself as a legitimate starting quarterback with over 900 passing yards in his first four starts with 10 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. It looks like Brissett will have the benefit of his wider receiver T.Y. Hilton on the field for this game with the reports indicating he will play despite his quad injury. He should be able to keep his team close in this game (as a double-digit underdog) against this Kansas City defense that is allowing 259 passing YPG this year. The Chiefs have been even worse with their run defense as opposing rushers are averaging 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry which is translating into 150 rushing YPG. The Colts have finally developed a strong offensive line — and while that group cannot salvage Andrew Luck’s career, they will help the Indy offense in the ground game and in giving Brissett time to pick apart the Kansas City defense. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. The Colts are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Kansas City was actually outgained by the Lions last week by a 447 to 438 yardage mark — their controversial 100-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown ended up playing a critical role in that win. The Chiefs surrendered 447 yards to the Detroit offense — and they have allowed their last three opponents to average 402 total YPG. Kansas City remains undefeated because of their dynamic offense as they have averaged 474.0 total YPG along with 468.3 total YPG over their last three contests. But the Chiefs have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after averaging at least 450 YPG in their last three games. Furthermore, Kansas City has scored 28 points in all four of their games this season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t underestimate what this game means to Colts’ head coach Frank Reich after his team lost in Kansas City last January 12th in the AFC Divisional Playoffs with their 31-13 loss. Yet Indianapolis has still covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 meetings with the Chiefs — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played in Arrowhead Stadium. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Kansas City NBC-TV Special with the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-2) looks to rebound from their 31-24 upset loss at home to Oakland as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (4-0) remained undefeated last week with their 34-30 win at Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes had thrown at least two touchdown passes in fourteen straight games before getting shutout from touchdown passes last week against the Matt Patricia-coached Lions defense. Yet the Chiefs still put up 34 points while generating 438 yards of offense. Kansas City has then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Chiefs have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. This Kansas City team under head coach Andy Reid has scored at least 25 points in a remarkable twenty-five straight games. They return home for just the second time this season where they have averaged 32 PPG with Mahomes as their quarterback. The problem for this Chiefs team remains their defense. Kansas City is allowing 259 passing YPG this year. The Chiefs have been even worse with their run defense as opposing rushers are averaging 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry which is translating into 150 rushing YPG. Detroit outgained KC last week with 447 total yards of offense — and the Over is 4-1-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. And in their last 11 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Over is 7-3-1 for Kansas City. Indianapolis will be challenged to slow down Mahomes and the dynamic Chiefs’ passing attack with defensive backs Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers out with injuries. The Colts are allowing 25.5 PPG this season. But Jacoby Brissett has proven himself as a legitimate starting quarterback with over 900 passing yards in his first four starts with 10 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. It looks like Brissett will have the benefit of his wider receiver T.Y. Hilton on the field for this game with the reports indicating he will play despite his quad injury. Indianapolis has played 31 of their last 41 games Over the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. Additionally, the Colts have played 36 of their last 53 games in the month of October Over the Total — and this includes them playing six straight Overs on the road in October.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total when playing on a grass field (as opposed to the field turf at Lucas Oil Field). The Chiefs will be hard to stop on offense in this game — don’t be surprised if they approach the 40 point threshold against the banged-up Colts defense. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.