At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (119) and the Chicago Bears (120). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-1) has won three straight games with their 30-16 win at Detroit last week as a 10.5-point favorite. Chicago (8-4) saw their five-game winning streak snapped last week with their 30-27 upset loss in New York to the Giants as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears held the Giants to just 338 yards of offense but were plagued by a -2 net turnover margin which included an 8-yard interception that accounted for the seven of the points that New York scored. Chicago is 4th in the NFL by allowing only 20.1 PPG and just 317.9 rushing YPG. When playing at home in Soldier Field, the Bears see those numbers drop even further to allowing just 19.5 PPG along with only 291.3 total YPG. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Monsters on the Midway have also played 34 of their last 50 games at home Under the Total when an underdog of no more than 3 points. The Bears will be getting Mitchell Trubisky back at quarterback but it remains questionable how effective he will be given the injured throwing shoulder that kept him out the last two weeks. Trubisky has won four straight games that he started before tonight — but let’s keep that quality of competition in mind. Those wins against the Jets, Bills, Lions, Vikings were against opponents that entered the day with a weak 17-30-1 combined record. It is telling that Trubisky had only four touchdown passes against the four opponents. Moving forward, Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. It will be cold in the Windy City tonight with temperates expected to be in the high-20s. The Bears have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. I expect this cold weather to bother quarterback Jared Goff who as a California kid growing up and in college at Cal has rarely been asked to play in this kind of weather. Goff played with the temperatures in the 20s earlier this season in Denver back on October 14th — and that was one of his worst games of the season as he completed just 14 of 28 passes for only 201 yards. He did not throw a touchdown pass in that game while throwing one interception and getting sacked five times. He will certainly be under pressure tonight from Khalil Mack and company who have accounted for 37 sacks on the quarterback this season. Look for the Rams to commit to Todd Gurley as they look to run the football to take pressure off Goff in these conditions against an elite defense. Goff is a finesse passer who cannot be expected to have the same touch in these conditions as he does when playing in warmer weather. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Rams have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road. The good news for this football team is the return of Aqib Talib at cornerback. His absence helps explain why this LA defense has underachieved for much of the season as he offers the team their best cover corner. His presence on the field will likely make the Bears’ one-dimensional in their offensive attack. The Rams defense has been better on the road where they allow 22.5 PPG which is more than 2 points less than their 24.8 PPG season defensive average.
 
FINAL TAKE: Weather should play a role in this game between two teams from the NFC destined for the playoffs. Look for this game to become a defensive struggle. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (119) and the Chicago Bears (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (129) and the Dallas Cowboys (130). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-6) has won two straight games with their 28-13 win over Washington as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Dallas (7-5) has won four straight games after their 13-10 upset win over New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog back on November 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. And while Philadelphia has only covered the point spread twice in their last six games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Defense is the concern for this team that has been ravaged with injuries with that unit. They allowed the Skins to average 6.03 Yards-Per-Play after the Giants and Saints averaged 7.31 and 7.91 YPP in their previous two games. But the Eagles have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in their last game while playing 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 YPP in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to average at least 6.0 YPP. Dallas has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. The Cowboys held the Saints scoreless in the first-half of that game — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not giving up more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Additionally, Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Cowboys’ 27-20 victory over the Eagles back on November 11th where they were 7.5-point road dogs. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a loss as a favorite laying at least 7 points. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (129) and the Dallas Cowboys (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (129) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (130). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-6) has won two straight games with their 28-13 win over Washington on Monday as a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (7-5) has won four straight games with their triumphant 13-10 upset win over New Orleans back on November 29th as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys acted like they won the Super Bowl two Thursdays ago with their upset win over the Saints on that short week. We had Dallas in that game — and the fringe benefit to that victory was that it set up this letdown situation. The Cowboys have been fortunate to reach their 7-5 record given that six of their victories have been decided by one scoring possession. They are only out-gaining their opponents by +13.6 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in four straight games along with five of their last seven — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. They held the Saints to just 176 yards of offense last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 205 total yards of offense. Dallas is also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. Philadelphia enters this critical game for them with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning two straight games. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home against a divisional rival. They also have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after playing their last two games at home. Carson Wentz is heating up as he completed 27 of 39 passes against the Skins for 306 yards with two touchdown passes. Wentz loves facing NFC East foes against which he has a 7-1 record with a 17:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 262.4 passing YPG along with a 106.2 Passer Rating. Wentz led his offense to 436 total yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards of offense in their last game. The defense has been the biggest issue for this team simply ravaged by injuries which was made even worse this week with the news that they placed cornerback Jalen Mills on Injured Reserve. The Eagles have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.03 and 7.31 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Philly run defense remains stout as they rank 10th in the NFL by allowing 103.7 rushing YPG — and asking Dak Prescott to beat them with his arm is the preferred strategy anyways. The reigning Super Bowl Champions are tough in expected close games as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: As opposed to last week when the Cowboys had the gigantic chip on their shoulder hosting the Saints on a ten-game winning streak, it is the Eagles now with something to prove in this game after Dallas won their proverbial Super Bowl to (temporarily) quell all their insecurities. Philadelphia is looking to avenge a 27-20 loss at home to the Cowboys back on November 11th despite being 7.5-point favorites in that game. Not only have the Eagles covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road when playing with same-season revenge but they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging an upset loss where they were home favorites laying at least a touchdown. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (129) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (124) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (123). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-10) has lost three straight games with their 43-16 loss at Seattle last week as a 10-point favorite. Denver (6-6) has won three straight games with their 24-10 win at Cincinnati last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Returning home will help San Francisco after they played their last two games on the road. The 49ers are 2-3 at home this season but they are out-gaining these opponents by +60.6 net YPG. They average a robust 142.2 rushing YPG at home while converting on 45.3% of their 3rd down plays. Nick Mullens is playing well for this team under center as he has led an offense that has averaged 389.3 total YPG over their last three games. Against the Seahawks, Mullens completed 30 of 48 passes for 414 yards with two touchdown passes. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Reducing turnovers is critical for this team after they suffered a -2 or worse net turnover margin in three straight games. It is encouraging that the 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after having a -2 or worse turnover margin in three straight contests. San Francisco has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. Denver has been leaning on their defense which has helped them play five straight Unders. But the Broncos have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Furthermore, Denver is just 5-12-1 ATS in their 18 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos will be even more dependent on their rushing attack with the news of the season-ending torn Achilles injury to wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. Denver rushed for 218 yards last week while out-rushing the Bengals by 1-7 nets yards. But the Bengals have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after rushing for at last 150 yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 75 yards. Denver stays on the road again this week where they are being out-gained by 12.0 net YPG. There are growing concerns about the Broncos defense considering that they have allowed 439.0 total YPG over their last three games. Denver is only averaging 331.3 total YPG in those last three games.

FINAL TAKE: It is hard to win three straight games when you are being out-gained by more than 100 YPG in those contests. While the Broncos won the yardage battle versus Cincinnati, they were out-gained in their upset wins over the Chargers and the Steelers in the previous two weeks. Expect this to be a close game with the Niners being in a position to pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the San Francisco 49ers (124) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (123). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (106) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (105). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (10-2) has won five of their last six games with their 40-33 win at Oakland last week as a 14-point favorite. Baltimore (7-5) has won three straight games with their 26-16 upset win at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread loss. The Chiefs did allow 442 yards of offense against the Raiders in that victory — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Defense remains the thorn in this Kansas City team’s side as they allowed 455 yards in their loss two weeks ago in Los Angeles to the Rams — but they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games. KC has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Chiefs return home after being on the road for their last two games where they are a perfect 5-0 with an average winning margin of +16.2 PPG. Their defense plays much better at Arrowhead Stadium where they are giving up just 17.6 PPG as compared to the 33.7 PPG they allow on the road. KC also allows 49.4 fewer YPG at home when compared to their season average. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when laying 3.5 to 7 points on their home field. Additionally, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against fellow AFC opponents — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of December. Baltimore may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. Baltimore’s defense shined in Atlanta last week by holding the Falcons to just 131 yards of offense. But the Ravens are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. And while the Ravens have allowed just 34, 67, and 48 rushing yards in each of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in three straight games. Lamar Jackson continues to impress since being pressed into starting duty at quarterback with his threat with running the football giving a burst of energy to the Baltimore offense. The Ravens generated 25 first downs last week while controlling the time of possession for over 39 minutes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a dominating effort where they had at least 25 first downs while dominating then clock for at least 34 minutes. But Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first big challenge for Jackson as a starter in the NFL playing in a hostile environment against a playoff team. I don’t like the dynamic for this Ravens team with Joe Flacco healthy again and looming on the sidelines. The Chiefs are undervalued when playing at home where their defense has been more effective. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Kansas City Chiefs (106) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (113) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (114). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-2) takes the field again after their 13-10 loss at Dallas back on November 29th as a 7.5-point favorite that snapped their ten-game winning streak. Tampa Bay (5-7) has won two straight games after they upset Carolina at home last Sunday by a 24-17 score as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite laying at least a touchdown. Don’t blame the defense for that loss as they held the Cowboys to just 308 yards of offense. The New Orleans defense is underrated. Not only do the Saints lead the NFL in rushing defense by limiting their opponents to just 75.3 rushing YPG, but they are also doing a fantastic job of pressuring the quarterback. Over their last four games, New Orleans has generated 20 sacks while registering 34 hits on the quarterback. They have only allowed more than 23 points once (to the Rams in that shootout) in their last nine games — and in their last three games, they are allowing just 12.3 PPG while giving up only 290.0 total YPG. The problem for the Saints against Dallas was the offense that managed to gain a mere 176 total yards. Look for New Orleans to deploy their preferred offensive strategy when playing on the road which is to run the football to burn clock and keep the opposing quarterback off the field. This should be a very effective strategy to limit Jameis Winston’s effectiveness. Since Week Nine, the Buccaneers are allowing 134.6 rushing YPG while seeing opposing rushers average 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tampa Bay allowed the Panthers to generate 161 rushing yards against them last week on the heels of the 49ers rushing for 181 yards against them two weeks ago. The Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. They also have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Tampa Bay upset Carolina last week despite only gaining 315 yards of offense against them. The Bucs have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning their last two games at home — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of December. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 4 straight games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 13 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, the Bucs have played 11 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Under the Total — and this includes 8 of the last 10 encounters in Tampa Bay finishing below the number. The oddsmakers have installed an over/under the number in the mid-50s given the 48-40 shootout that the Bucs pulled out in an upset back on September 9th. The Saints’ defense has more to prove in this rematch than even the offense does after last week. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (113) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (107) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (108). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-6) looks to rebound from their humiliating 6-0 shutout loss on the road to Jacksonville last week despite being a 4-point favorite. Houston (9-3) has rattled off nine straight victories with their 29-13 win over Cleveland last week as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should be very feisty in this game after being shutout — they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. If there is anything encouraging from that loss to the Jaguars, it was the continued improvement of the Colts defense that held Jacksonville to just 211 yards of offense. Over their last three games, Indianapolis has allowed only 13.3 PPG along with just 262.7 total YPG. Indy is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 250 yards of offense in their last game. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a low-scoring game where neither team scored more than 14 points. This is a challenge for this team when facing this ferocious defense that has registered 34 sacks for the season. But this strong Colts’ offensive line has allowed only 14 sacks this season — so Andrew Luck should have an opportunity to find receivers this afternoon. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Colts are also 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games against their AFC South rivals — and this includes them going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Houston. The Texans generated 384 yards of offense last week against the Browns — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But a concern for this team is their defense that allowed 428 yards to the Browns with rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield gaining 397 of those yards in the air. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 305 yards in their last game. This shapes up to be a higher scoring game with the Total set in the low-50s — but this is not the type of game that this team prefers. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of December under head coach Bill O’Brien.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans won the first meeting between these two teams back on September 30th by a 37-34 score despite that game being played in Indianapolis. The Colts have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. Don’t be surprised if Indy pulls the upset — but take the points for some nice insurance in what should be a close game. 25* AFC South Underdog of the Year with the  Indianapolis Colts (107) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) and the Tennessee Titans (102). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 26-22 win over the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-8) ended their seven-game losing streak with their 6-0 shutout victory over Indianapolis as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Not only was the Jaguars’ shutout effort last week an outlier performance but so was their failure to score more than 6 points. Jacksonville has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after scoring no more than 6 points in their last game. The Jaguars have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing a game where less than 20 combined points were scored. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing less than 15 points in their last game — and they have also played 32 of their last 47 games Over the Total after allowing less than 10 points in their last contest. The Jaguars limited the Colts to averaging a mere 3.90 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to averaging no better than 4.0 YPP. Additionally, Jacksonville has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Moving forward, the Jaguars are looking to avenge a 9-6 loss to the Titans back on September 23rd where they were 10-point favorites at home. But Jacksonville has played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total when avenging a loss by a field goal or less — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss where they were laying at least 7 points as the home favorite. Tennessee has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Titans have failed to over the point spread in three straight games as well — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Tennessee did give up 156 rushing yards in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Titans run defense has become an issue as they have allowed over 150 rushing YPG over their last three games with opposing rushers averaging 5.57 Yards-Per-Carry. This defense will be facing Leonard Fournette who will be taking the field with “fresh legs” after not playing last Sunday. Tennessee stays at home where the Over is 39-18-2 in their last 59 games against teams with a losing record on the road. And while the Titans out-gained the Jets last week by +123 net yards, they have then played 17 of their last 23 home games Over the Total after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Lastly, Tennessee has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total for Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Given the low-scoring result these two teams had in September and the shutout win for the Jaguars enjoyed on Sunday, this Total is under 40 tonight. While sometimes at low Total should not dissuade us from taking the Under, this game should (somehow) get into the 40s. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) and the Tennessee Titans (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (102) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (101). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 26-22 win over the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-8) ended their seven-game losing streak with their 6-0 shutout victory over Indianapolis as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars’ defense may have been inspired to make a statement with head coach Doug Marrone’s decision to end the Blake Bortles era last week with him being benched for Cody Kessler at quarterback. Jacksonville stepped up t shutout Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense while holding them to just 265 yards of offense. But this remains a lost season for the Jaguars who need to win their final four games just to get to an 8-8 record. Sure, Jacksonville can also try to motivate themselves to play the role of the spoiler — but that seems unlikely for this group at this point particularly with them playing on a short week. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Jacksonville is also 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Jags held Indy to averaging just 3.90 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. The bigger problem for this team remains their offense now reliant on Kessler running the show. He passed for just 150 yards in that game leading an offense that generated a mere 211 yards. Jacksonville was out-gained by 54 net yards even in that victory. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. While the Bortles narrative has received most of the attention this season, one of the biggest reasons why this team has underachieved this season has been that they have ravaged by injuries. Jacksonville has a whopping fifteen players on Injured Reserve at this point of the season including three of their opening day starters on the offensive line headlined by their All-Pro left guard Andrew Norwell. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 1-5 this season while being outscored by -9.3 PPG while allowing their home hosts to score 27.0 PPG. The Jags are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road. Furthermore, Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Titans. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The Titans held the Jets to just 124 passing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Tennessee stays at home on this short week where they are 4-1 this season — and they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games at home. Additionally, the Titans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 7 points or less. The Tennessee defense is a top-nine unit in yards allowed while ranking 6th in the league by holding their opponents to only 20.4 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: I would put more credence into the potential role of the spoiler for the Jaguars if they had a whole week to prepare — instead, I suspect they rested on their laurels after stepping up last week against the Colts. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is playing better football as of late as he gets back to 100% health. Look for this tough Titans team to take care of business on their home field. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (102) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (379) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (380). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-5) has lost two straight games after their 31-23 win at Dallas back on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 25-22 win over the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDSKINS PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia needed to rally from a 19-11 halftime deficit to get by the lowly Giants in that game. This is a team that has been decimated with injuries on both sides of the football. I count ten players on their original two-deep roster that have been placed on Injured Reserve. To make matters worse, running back Darren Sproles is not yet ready to take the field and defense will be without their best linebacker in Jordan Hicks who is listed as doubtful tonight with his calf injury. This is simply not the same team as the one that won the Super Bowl last year — and it also appears that the loss of assistant coaches Frank Reich and John DeFilippo who both took promotions in the offseason was significant. For those waiting for the Eagles to simply flip the switch and play better with the Super Bowl winners still on their roster, keep in mind that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC East rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of December. Perhaps most noteworthy for tonight’s situation, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when favored laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Washington is going to play well tonight as they remain alive in the NFC East race and have had extra days to prepare for a divisional rival who swept them last season. The Skins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing three of their last four contests. The Skins allowed 404 yards of offense against the Cowboys — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Colt McCoy did play pretty well at quarterback in his first start of the year playing for the injured Alex Smith. McCoy completed 24 of 38 passes for 268 yards with two touchdown passes — and the Skins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. But it was McCoy’s three interceptions that did Washington in against Dallas. The Skins endured a -3 net turnover margin in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Washington stays on the road where they are 3-2 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Skins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Eagles — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 trips to Philadelphia. Expect them to play their struggling divisional rival tough tonight in what remains an important game in the NFC East race. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Washington Redskins (379) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (380). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (379) and the Philadelphia Eagles (380). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-5) has lost two straight games after their 31-23 win at Dallas back on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 25-22 win over the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Skins have been ravaged with injuries on the offensive side of the football. While the biggest lost player is quarterback Alex Smith, the attrition this team has suffered on their offensive line would devastate most teams. Washington has put four of their players that began the season on their two-deep depth chart on Injured Reserve with three of these players being starters — and their six-time Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams is questionable for tonight with rib and ankle injuries. The Skins are averaging 20.0 PPG for the season while scoring 19.1 PPG over their last three games and it is difficult seeing them putting up many more points than that. Adrian Peterson’s production has significantly declined as these injuries on the offensive line have mounted. Over the last month, the running back is averaging only 3.05 Yards-Per-Carry — and he has not reached 70 yards from scrimmage since October 28th. Washington rushed for just 80 yards against the Cowboys — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they failed to rush for at least 90 yards. Furthermore, the Skins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Quarterback Colt McCoy was a victim of this injured offensive line as well. He was sacked three times by Dallas while getting hitting eight times in that game. Washington has also been hit with injuries on defense but this unit is still playing well. For the season, the Skins rank 8th the NFL by allowing only 20.8 PPG led by a stout run defense that also ranks 8th in the league by allowing 100.3 rushing YPG. Over their last three games, Washington is allowing just 19.4 PPG — and they hold their home hosts to only 19.2 PPG. The Skins did allow 258 passing yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Washington has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Skins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles defense gave up 276 passing yards along with 402 total yards of offense to the Giants — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while they allowed 7.31 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP. Philly is riddled with injuries in their secondary — but it helps that they are only facing McCoy rather than Smith at quarterback tonight. The Eagles are still playing strong run defense that ranks 10th in the league by allowing 103.6 rushing YPG. But this Philly offense is scoring only 17.3 PPG along with just 319.3 total YPG over their last three games. Philadelphia stays at home where they are holding only scoring 20.2 PPG — but they are also holding their visitors to that number. The Eagles have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Philly has played 7 straight home games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 8 straight home games Under the Total after playing an NFC East rival.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have been hit very hard by the injury bug. Since the onus is on the offensive to execute plays to move the football, usually it is the defenses that look relatively better when injuries are spread out on both sides of the football. Expect a lower-scoring game between these two divisional rivals playing for the first time this season. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (379) and the Philadelphia Eagles (380). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (354) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (353). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-3) has won seven of their last eight games with their 45-10 win over Arizona last week as a 14-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 24-17 upset loss at Denver as a 3-point favorite. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-3) has won seven of their last eight games with their 45-10 win over Arizona last week as a 14-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 24-17 upset loss at Denver as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh returns home after playing the last two games on the road where they should play much better than their last two flat performances. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. Big Ben Roethlisberger completed 41 of 56 passes for 462 yards against the Broncos last week while leading the offense to produce 527 total yards of offense which is a good harbinger for things to come tonight. Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. Back at home, the Steelers are scoring 35.4 PPG while outscoring their opponents by +10.6 net PPG. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last game by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers dominated the hapless Cardinals last week by out-gaining them by +265 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +200 yards. LA generated 414 yards of offense in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Chargers are also 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Their offense took a major hit in that game when running back Melvin Gordon suffered a knee injury that will keep him out of tonight’s contest. That is not a good sign with the calendar turning to December where this team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in this month.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has scored at least 33 points in four of their five games at Heinz Field this season. With the Chargers being without one of their key offensive weapons in Gordon, Los Angeles lacks the firepower to keep up with an angry Steelers team. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (354) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (353). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (353) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (354). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-3) has won seven of their last eight games with their 45-10 win over Arizona last week as a 14-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-3-1) looks to bounce-back from their 24-17 upset loss at Denver as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers are playing outstanding defense right now — and that unit is even better now that Joey Bosa has returned after missing most of the season due to injury. Los Angeles has allowed less than 20 points in six of their last seven games. Over their last three games, the Chargers are allowing just 13.0 PPG along with only 263.7 total YPG. This strong defensive play should continue tonight as the Under is 35-16-1 in the LA’s last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers did generate 414 yards of offense last week against the Cardinals — but they have then seen the Under go 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Unfortunately for this offense, they will be without their top running back, Melvin Gordon tonight who is out with a knee injury. Now the Chargers go back on the road where they are only averaging 368.0 total YPG which is 34 YPG below their season average. But the LA defense keeps them competitive away from home as they hold their opponents to just 18.5 PPG. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh has only scored 37 combined points over their last two games. They are getting outstanding play from their defense that not only leads the NFL in sacks but is allowing only 20.3 PPG along with just 264.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Steelers have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two of there last three games. Pittsburgh did generate 527 yards of offense last week while averaging 7.12 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game and they have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Pittsburgh needs to get their rushing attack going again after only rushing for 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to gain more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. The Steelers have averaged 403.6 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games. Lastly, Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The high Total set in the low-50s suggests that this shapes up to be a scoring fest. However, both these teams are playing great defense — scoring is going to be harder to come by for both teams. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (353) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (354). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (375) and the New England Patriots (376). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-4-1) has won five of their last seven games with their 24-17 win over Green Bay last week as a 3.5-point favorite. New England (8-3) has won seven of their last eight games with their 27-13 win at New York against the Jets last Sunday as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. New England generated 498 yards of offense against the Jets — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Patriots have averaged 405 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests — but they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG over their last three contests. Yet despite that yardage, they are scoring just 22.7 PPG over their last three games. But the defense has kept up as they are only giving up 21.3 PPG in those three games. The Jets did pass for 264 yards against them last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. New England has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog. Kirk Cousins passed for 342 yards last week against the Packers defense — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. But despite that effort last week, the Vikings are scoring only 22.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 322.3 total YPG which is over 45 yards below their season average. But the Minnesota defense is tightening up as they are allowing only 17.0 PPG over their last three games along with just 257.0 total YPG. Lastly, the Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of December.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are playing more ball control on offense as of late — while the Vikings defense has stepped up their level of play. Expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (375) and the New England Patriots (376). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (366) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (365). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-6) has lost three straight games after their 35-20 loss to Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last week. Denver (5-6) has won two straight games after their 24-17 upset win over Pittsburgh last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THEN BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver has pulled off two straight upsets as their underdog win over the Steelers last week came on the heels of their 23-22 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7-point dog. But the Broncos may be due for a letdown as they go back on the road. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games. The Broncos allowed 527 yards of offense in their game with Pittsburgh — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Denver hits the road again where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games away from home. The Broncos have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games against AFC foes. And in their last 8 games in the month of December, Denver has failed to cover the point spread 6 times. Cincinnati is quickly losing control of their season — and things got worse this week with the announcement that quarterback Andy Dalton will miss the rest of the season with his thumb injury. But look for this team to play hard for head coach Marvin Lewis. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing three of their last four games. Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Jeff Driskel takes over at quarterback for this team — and he was solid last week in relief by completing 17 of 29 passes for 155 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. He will have the benefit of wide receiver A.J. Green returning to the field this afternoon after he has missed the last few games with a foot injury. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against fellow AFC opponents — and they are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games in the month of December under Lewis.

FINAL TAKE: With the Broncos likely to experience a letdown traveling east for this early kickoff, taking the home team getting more than 4 points is too good to pass up. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (366) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (365). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (362) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (361). THE SITUATION: Miami (5-6) has lost two straight games with their 27-24 loss at Indianapolis last week as a 9-point underdog. Buffalo (4-7) has won two straight games with their 24-21 upset victory over the Jaguars last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami has played their last two games on the road but they return home where they are 4-1 this season. The Dolphins’ has a healthy Ryan Tannehill back at quarterback — and they score a healthy 24.0 PPG while averaging 349.2 total YPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last game on the road. Furthermore, while the Dolphins have allowed 7.11 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in two straight games. Buffalo (4-7) has pulled off two straight upset victories with their win over Jacksonville preceded by their 41-10 win in New York against the Jets where they were a touchdown underdog. But the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row. Buffalo gave up 226 rushing yards last week to the Jaguars — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. The Bills success over their last two games by running the football — they have gained 167 and 212 rushing yards in each of their last two games. But Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight games. The Bills go back on the road where they are 2-4 while getting outscored by -8.9 PPG. Buffalo scores only 14.8 PPG away from home while averaging a mere 262.2 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Miami will also have revenge on their mind as they lost their last game with their AFC East rivals by a 22-16 score back on December 31st. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Miami Dolphins (362) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (351) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (352). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-5) has won five straight games with their 27-24 win over Miami last week as a 9-point favorite. Jacksonville (3-8) has lost seven straight games with their 24-21 win at Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have hit rock bottom — so head coach Doug Marrone fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and benched quarterback Blake Bortles. But new offensive coordinator Scott Milanovich is still limited by the offensive talent available to him. Quarterback Cody Kessler has only played in thirteen NFL games in his career. And the team will be without running back Leonard Fournette who was suspended for one game for his roughhouse behavior in last week’s game with the Bills. Jacksonville is scoring only 17.9 PPG. But the maligned Jaguars’ defense has played much better at home where they are holding their opponents to just 16.2 PPG along with only 261.6 total YPG. Last week’s game with Buffalo went Over the 36.5 point Total — but Jacksonville has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over. The Jaguars have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Bills did rush for 167 yards last week — but the Jags have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing at home. And in their last 7 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Jaguars have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Colts generated 455 yards of offense in that game, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Indy suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Colts defense has stepped up their level of play as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 20.0 PPG along with only 330.7 total YPG. Andrew Luck has led an offense that has scored at least 27 points in six straight games — but they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in five straight games. Moving forward, Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 12 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the Colts have played 9 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Colts’ 29-26 win back on November 11th. While that game flew Over the 48 point Total, these two teams have still played 11 of their last 15 meetings Under the Total. Expect this rematch to be a lower-scoring game. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (351) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (352). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (302) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (301). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-1) has won ten straight games after their 31-17 win over Atlanta last Thursday as an 11.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-23 win over Washington at home last Thanksgiving as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas is playing with plenty of confidence right now — and the trade of Amari Cooper seems to be exactly what the doctor ordered to open up their offense. Cooper was spectacular on Thanksgiving by catching 8 balls for 180 yards with two touchdowns passes. Dallas generated 404 yards against the Skins in that game — not only have the Cowboys covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game but they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Dallas has covered the point spread in each of their last three games — and they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread win while they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in three straight contests. The Cowboys stay at home where they are 4-1 with an average winning margin of +7.2 PPG while out-gaining their opponents by +55.8 net YPG. Dallas scored 26.2 PPG at home — and they have not allowed more than 28 points in all eleven games they have played this season. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 44 home games as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 home games after winning three of their last four games. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. And while the Saints have raced out to at least a two-touchdown lead in each of their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after holding double-digit halftime leads in three straight games. And while New Orleans has scored at least 30 points in five straight games, they have then failed to cover the points spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last five games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after scoring at least 25 points in their last three contests. Furthermore, the Saints have benefited from at least a +2 net turnover margin in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games are enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in at least three straight games. And in their last 8 games played on Thursday Night Football, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints may win their eleventh game in a row tonight — but they are likely in for a close game with a confident home team with plenty of momentum. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (302) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-1) has won ten straight games after their 31-17 win over Atlanta last Thursday as an 11.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-23 win over Washington at home last Thanksgiving as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While the Saints offense that leads the NFL by scoring 37.2 PPG, the continued improved play of their defense too often gets the short shrift. New Orleans has allowed only 12.7 PPG over their last three games while limiting their last three opponents to just 282.0 total YPG. The Saints have not allowed more than 23 points in seven of their last eight games with the lone exception being their 45-35 shootout with the Rams. The New Orleans run defense leads the NFL by allowing only 73.2 YPG — and opposing rushers average just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Nine of their last ten opponents have failed to rush for more than 100 yards — and their last three opponents have managed only 65 rushing YPG. The Saints pass rush has stepped as of late as well as they have combined for 13 sacks along with 25 hits on the quarterback over the last three weeks. This unit will be infused the return of their breakout rookie defensive lineman Marcus Davenport who has missed the last few weeks with a toe injury. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Saints have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. While New Orleans has scored at least 30 points in five straight games, they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in their last five contests. As the weather begins to turn, the Saints are starting to emphasize their rushing attack a bit more with Mark Ingram back in the mix after serving his four-game suspension. Drew Brees only attempted 22 passes last week against the Falcons. New Orleans only generated 312 yards of offense last week against the Atlanta defense. The Saints tend to run the ball more when they go on the road as well — they have played 8 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. The formula for defeating the Saints will certainly be to run the ball to burn time off the clock and keep Brees off the field — Dallas is 5-1 this season when Ezekiel Elliott rushes for at least 100 yards. Despite last week’s offensive effort against the Skins, the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Dallas has an outstanding defense that is 3rd in the NFL by allowing just 19.4 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up a mere 331.1 total YPG. The Cowboys run defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 93.6 YPG — and they are allowing only 3.46 YPC. They held Washington to just 80 rushing yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Dallas has not allowed more than 28 points to an opponent all season. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these are going to attempt to run the football — yet both might be stymied in these efforts when facing their opposing strong run defenses. While that will likely lead to a course of events that will see more passing, the lack of an effective ground game will slow down these offenses. With the Total in the low-50s given the prowess of the Saints offense, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (274) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (273). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 38-10 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog. Houston (7-3) has won seven straight games with their 23-21 win at Washington as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Tennessee fell behind by a 24-3 score at halftime to the Colts which is not a good sign for them now. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 24 points in the first-half of their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after trailing by at least two touchdowns at halftime of their last game. Additionally, Tennessee is just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Titans stay on the road where they are 2-4 this season while being outscored by -3.4 PPG. The anemic Tennessee offense scores only 16.3 PPG while averaging just 297.2 total YPG. It does look like quarterback Marcus Mariota will get the start tonight but he may not be at 100% given his stinger injury. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games on the road. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight trips to Houston. The Texans defense has stepped up their level of play as they are allowing only 17.5 PPG since Week Five. After playing on the road for the last two weeks, Houston returns home where they are 3-1 with an average winning margin of +6.0 PPG. Houston averages a robust 383.0 YPG at home while holding their opponents to just 19.7 PPG along with only 317.5 total YPG. Over their last three games, the Texans are scoring 28.0 PPG. This team will motivated to avenge a 20-17 upset loss at Tennessee back on September 16th as a 3-point favorite — and they have covered the points spread in 26 of their last 39 home games when playing with revenge. And in their last 5 games against AFC opponents, Houston has covered the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans will have additional motivation tonight as it is their first game since the passing of their owner Robert C. McNair. While he may not have been the most popular owner in the league (given some of his comments), the team will be playing with plenty of emotion. Look for this surging Houston team to overwhelm their AFC South rival. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (274) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (273) and the Houston Texans (274). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 38-10 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog. Houston (7-3) has won seven straight games with their 23-21 win at Washington as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans lost their defensive coordinator Dean Pees in the middle of their game with the Colts as he went to the hospital with a medical scare — that had to play a role in them allowing 397 yards of offense. Pees has been cleared to run the defense tonight for this game. Expect a better effort from this Tennessee defense that allows only 19.7 PPG along with 305.8 total YPG when they are playing on the road. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least three touchdowns. Tennessee has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. But the Titans only score 16.3 PPG away from home while averaging a mere 297.2 total YPG. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Titans have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against fellow AFC South opponents, the game finished Under the Total all 6 times. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC South foes. The Texans have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Houston’s previous game was also on the road in what resulted in a 19-17 win at Denver against the Broncos. The Texans have played 6 straight games Under the Total after winning two straight games by 6 points or less. Houston returns home where they are allowing only 19.7 PPG and just 317.5 total YPG. Since Week Five, the Texans are allowing only 17.5 PPG with an improved defense. Furthermore, Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of November. And in their last 5 appearances for Monday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played back on September 16th with the Titans pulling off a 20-17 upset as the home underdog. Expect another lower-score game in this rematch. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (273) and the Houston Texans (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the Minnesota Vikings (272). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-4-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 25-20 loss last Sunday night in Chicago to the Bears as a 2.5-point underdog. Green Bay (4-5-1) has lost three of their last four contests with their 27-24 loss in Seattle last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Green Bay’s defense is letting them down — but Aaron Rodgers has enough juice to keep his team in the game which is pushing games to finish Over the Total. The Packers allowed 378 yards of offense last week to the Seahawks — and they have then played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay generated 359 yards in that loss — and they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Packers stay on the road where they are allowing 29.8 PPG — and all five of their home hosts have scored at least 27 points which seems like a barometer for the Vikings tonight. Green Bay has played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total on the road. The Packers have also played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Green Bay has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Packers have also played 21 of their last 26 games Over the Total against NFC rivals — and this includes them playing four straight games Over the Total against fellow NFC North rivals. Minnesota fell behind last week by a 14-0 halftime score to the Bears — and they have played 23 of their last 38 games Over the Total after suffering a two-touchdown or worse halftime deficit in their last game which includes them playing three straight Overs in that situation. Quarterback Kirk Cousins enjoyed his best game of the season when these two teams met back on September 16th in that 29-29 tie. Cousins passed for 425 yards in that game while posting a season-high 118.8 Passer Rating and averaging 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt.

FINAL TAKE: The loser of this game is in severe trouble to make the playoffs considering that tonight’s winner secures the tie-breaker between these two teams. That urgency should help push the final score over the number. 10* NFL Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (271) and the Minnesota Vikings (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-4-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 25-20 loss last Sunday night in Chicago to the Bears as a 2.5-point underdog. Green Bay (4-5-1) has lost three of their last four contests with their 27-24 loss in Seattle last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been incredibly resilient under head coach Mike Zimmer. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after a straight up loss. They return home where their defense thrives by holding their visitors to just 19.0 PPG along with 273.4 total YPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota is also a decisive 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games on their home field. Additionally, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed 378 yards of offense to the Seahawks last week, they are then just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay stays on the road this week where they are winless in five games while being outscored by -8.2 PPG in those games due to them allowing 29.8 PPG with the fewest points allowed being 27 to their home hosts. The Packers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games away from home. Furthermore, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in the month of November — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games against NFC North foes.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t like where this Packers team is headed this season with head coach Mike McCarthy seemingly now a lame duck while Aaron Rodgers ignores his play selections at the line of scrimmage. Minnesota is also reeling — but their vastly superior roster depth should help them do what it takes to win this game in convincing fashion. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) and the Denver Broncos (270). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-2-1) has won six straight games with their 20-16 win over Jacksonville last week as a 4-point favorite. Denver (4-6) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-22 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Denver allowed 479 yards in that contest — but the Under is then 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Broncos return home where they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against a team with a winning record on the road. Denver has also played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November. And in their last 6 games as an underdog, the Broncos have played 5 of these games Under the Total. They will certainly try to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep the Steelers off the field. That is what the Jaguars did last week as Pittsburgh was only on offense for 22:20 minutes of that game. As a result, the Steelers generated only 323 yards of offense. Pittsburgh did hold Jacksonville to only 243 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing less than 250 yards in their last game. The Steelers defense has raised their level of play — over their last three games, they are allowing only 17.7 PPG along with just 251.0 total YPG. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total — and they have also played 12 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, not only have the Steelers played 30 of their last 43 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher but they have also played 8 straight road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Lastly, Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers offense is not nearly as potent when playing on the road they are scoring 5.5 PPG below their season average. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) and the Denver Broncos (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (264) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (263). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-4) has lost two straight games with their 20-19 upset loss at Detroit as a 4-point favorite last week. Seattle (5-5) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 27-24 win over Green Bay last week as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a crucial game for head coach Ron Rivera and his team. After losing at Pittsburgh by 31 points before their upset loss at Detroit, Carolina returns home where they are a perfect 5-0 with an average scoring margin of +9.8 PPG as compared to their 1-4 record when playing on the road. The turnover battle is dramatically different for the Panthers at home where they have a +10 net turnover margin as compared to their -5 net turnover margin when playing on the road. Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games on the road. Rivera should see a strong effort from his team. The Panthers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Carolina has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of November. Seattle has a difficult travel situation having to go out east to play at 1 PM ET contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. Defense is becoming a problem for this team as they have allowed 28.3 PPG along with 396.7 total YPG over their last three games. They allowed 311 passing yards to the Packers last week after giving up 307 passing yards the previous week to the Rams. Not only are the Seahawks just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 300 passing yards in two straight contests. They did hold Green Bay to just 48 rushing yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 50 rushing yards in their last game. Seattle is allowing their opponents to average 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and that is an ominous number when facing these Panthers that average 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has won ten straight games at home while averaging nearly 31 PPG over that stretch and allowing just 21 PPG in those games. Look for the Panthers to take their frustrations out on this young Seattle team. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Carolina Panthers (264) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (260) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (259). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-5) has lost two straight games with their 24-21 loss at Baltimore as a 6.5-point underdog. Cleveland (3-6-1) takes the field again after their 28-16 upset win over Atlanta two Sundays ago as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati is a desperate for a win right now — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing three of their last four games. The defense has been the problem for this team. The 403 yards they allowed to the Ravens last week was actually a big improvement from the 509 and 576 yards they allowed in their previous two contests. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 375 yards in their last three contests — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after giving up at least 400 yards in their last two games. Cincinnati will once again be without wide receiver A.J. Green for this game but they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams with a losing record. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC North opponents. Cleveland is just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after their bye week. They go back on the road where they are on a twenty-five game losing streak. The Browns are 0-4 away from home this season with a -6.0 PPG losing margin due to allowing 31.2 PPG. Cleveland is being out-gained by -90.2 net YPG by their home hosts. The Browns are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games played on field turf. Furthermore, Cleveland is just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against fellow AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have dominated the Browns in the most recent Battle for Ohio showdowns. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight clashes — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to Cincinnati. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (260) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (261) and the New York Jets (262). THE SITUATION: New England (7-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped two weeks ago with their 34-10 loss at Tennessee as a 6.5-point favorite. New York (3-7) has lost four straight games with their 41-10 loss to Buffalo two Sundays ago where they were a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. It is time for Bill Belichick and his coaching staff to get back to basics: run the football to burn time off the clock and protect their defense. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. This is particularly the case when the Patriots go on the road where their offense is not nearly as explosive as it is in Foxboro. New England is scoring only 20.6 PPG on the road while averaging 312.6 total YPG — and those numbers are far below their 28.0 PPG scoring average along with the 377.2 total YPG they are averaging this season. The Patriots have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total — and they have also played 6 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, New England has played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after the first month of the season. The Patriots defense has been playing pretty well. Even after their bad effort against the Titans the last time out, they have held their last three opponents to score only 19.0 PPG while averaging just 362.0 total YPG. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East opponents. New York has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss at home. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has been declared out for this game with his foot injury — so it will be the veteran Josh McCown under center for this game. What McCown bring in his savvy and knowledge to this position is mitigated by his limited physical skills. He completed 17 of 34 passes against the Bills but that only resulted in 135 yards of offense — and he threw two interceptions. The Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. New York is scoring an anemic 8.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 229.3 total YPG. The Jets need to run the football to keep Tom Brady off the field. The Jets defense has been playing pretty well — they have held their last three opponents to just 338.0 total YPG. The Bills behind Matt Barkley (!) generated 451 yards against them in their last game — but they have played 38 of their last 60 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 13 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest, the Jets have played 9 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams this season — they last played on December 31st where the Patriots won by a 26-6 score. These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total — look for this afternoon showdown to make it five in a row. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (261) and the New York Jets (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (109) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (110). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-6) has lost two straight games with their 22-19 loss to Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (9-1) has won nine straight games with their 48-7 blowout victory over Philadelphia on Sunday as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta managed only 80 rushing attempts on 18 carries in that loss to Dallas last week — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The Falcons have suffered two straight upset losses with that loss to the Cowboys preceding an upset loss on the road to Cleveland where they were 6-point favorites. But don’t count out Atlanta to keep this game closer than expected in this rivalry game played on a short week. The Falcons know this Saints team very well — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played for Thursday Night Football. Atlanta looks to avenge a 43-37 upset loss to New Orleans as a small 1.5-point favorite back on September 23rd — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss. The underdog in this series has now covered the point spread in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams which makes the opportunity to take all these points very enticing. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as a double-digit favorite — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. The Saints enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin against the Eagles last Sunday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 46 home games after enjoying a +2 or better turnover in their last game. New Orleans may be due for a bit of a letdown after scoring at least 45 points in three straight games while enjoying a minimum halftime lead of 15 points in those three contests. But the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after enjoying a halftime lead of at least a touchdown in three straight games. Moving forward, New Orleans has failed to cover the points spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing on Thursday Night Football. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 53 of the last 87 home games against fellow NFC South foes.

FINAL TAKE: This New Orleans team is not at full strength with their left tackle Terron Armstead questionable with a shoulder along with their right guard Larry Warford still questionable dealing with the concussion protocol. The team will also be without their star rookie defensive end Marcus  Davenport who is dealing with a toe. The Falcons are getting too many points in a heated divisional rivalry game to pass up. 10* NFL Atlanta-New Orleans NBC-TV Special with the Atlanta Falcons (109) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (109) and the New Orleans (110). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-6) has lost two straight games with their 22-19 loss to Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (9-1) has won nine straight games with their 48-7 blowout victory over Philadelphia on Sunday as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Saints cranked out a whopping 546 yards of offense against the reigning Super Bowl champions — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New Orleans defense did hold the Eagles to just 196 total yards of offense — but they have played 30 of their last 43 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Head coach Sean Payton has his offense push the pace when playing on the fast turf at home in the Superdome. Drew Brees has a perfect 16:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his five home games this year while averaging 350.8 passing YPG. The Saints are averaging 39.4 PPG when playing at home while allowing their visitors to manage 25.4 PPG to result in an average combined score well into the 60s. The Over is 19-8-1 in New Orleans’ last 28 home games. Furthermore, the Saints have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when a double-digit favorite. New Orleans is the hottest team in the league who have covered the point spread in eight straight games — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in at least five straight games. The Saints have also played 4 straight games Over the Total against fellow NFC South rivals. Atlanta would surely like to run the ball to keep the Saints’ offense off the field but that will be difficult to accomplish with Devonta Freeman on Injured Reserve with his foot injury. The Falcons will not have the luxury of hoping to establish the run if they fall behind early to this New Orleans team that averages 22.4 first-half points when playing at home. Atlanta has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Additionally, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The injury-plagued Atlanta defense will have a difficult time slowing down the Saints offense after allowing their last two opponents to churn out 353 rushing yards while averaging 6.66 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons lack a credible pass rush — they rank in the bottom-five in the NFL by sacking the QB in just 4.8% of opponent pass attempts and they are just hitting the quarterback in 11.1% of their dropbacks. Matt Ryan still has most of his offensive weapons at his disposal in the passing game — so the Falcons should score their share of points as they try to keep pace with the New Orleans offense. Atlanta only generated 329 yards against Dallas last week but that was in large part because they had ten fewer offensive plays than what they typically enjoy. The Falcons still averaged 6.23 Yards-Per-Play against the Cowboys — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Atlanta has played 14 of their last 18 road games Over the Total as a road underdog getting 10.5 to 14 points — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans won the first meeting between these two teams back on September 23rd that the Saints won by a 43-37 score. That was the game where the Falcons began to produce better success in the Red Zone. Atlanta has scored at least 31 points five times this season — and head coach Dan Quinn will have to think that generating at least that many points will be necessary to pull the upset. That is a recipe for another high scoring game. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (109) and the New Orleans (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 23-21 loss to Houston on Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (5-5) pulled off their second-straight upset victory on Sunday with their 22-19 win in Atlanta over the Falcons as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Cowboys return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record overall. The Over/Under for this game is set in the low 40s — and Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Cowboys are looking to avenge a 20-17 loss to the Skins back on October 21st — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow NFC East opponents. Washington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Skins managed only 278 yards of offense against the Texans with the team losing their starting quarterback Alex Smith to that gruesome season-ending leg injury. Colt McCoy is forced into duty for this game. Washington goes on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. The Skins have also played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 5 games against NFC East opponents, Washington has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: In this rematch of a game that saw only 37 combined points with the Skins having Alex Smith under center, expect a lower-scoring game. 10* NFL Washington-Dallas O/U Fox-TV Special with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (107) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 23-21 loss to Houston on Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (5-5) pulled off their second-straight upset victory on Sunday with their 22-19 win in Atlanta over the Falcons as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The bigger news for Washington was the gruesome leg injury to quarterback Alex Smith that ended his season in eerily similar ways to what to Joe Theismann for the team over two decades ago. The offense is now in the hands of the nine-year veteran Colt McCoy. I am a bit more bullish on what McCoy can do running this offense than the general public. The former Texas star has 25 professional starts under his belt with a firm understanding of the Jay Gruden offense having been with the Skins for 4 1/2 seasons. McCoy does not have a strong arm — but neither does Smith. I expect McCoy to capably run the offense while limiting his mistakes and letting the stout Skins’ defense keep them in the game. I certainly expect Washington to play hard in this crucial NFC East contest. As it is, the Skins have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a loss at home. Additionally, Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, the Skins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the month of November — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 trips to Dallas to face the Cowboys. Dallas returns home after pulling off two straight upset wins on the road against the Eagles and Falcons — but this remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a win on the road by a field goal or less. This is not a franchise that handles short-term prosperity very well. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record at home. Dallas held Atlanta to just 324 yards of offense due in large measure to limiting them to 10 fewer snaps on offense versus their season average. The Cowboys have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.23 and 7.02 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.5 YPP. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played on a Thursday, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Four of Dallas’ five victories this season have been decided by one scoring possession. They may win this game — but this should be a close contest between divisional rivals with first-place and playoff positioning on the line. Taking the points will be valuable with a Washington team that should rally around each other after the injury to their starting quarterback. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (107) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-3) has won four games in a row with their 25-20 win over Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (4-6) snapped their three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-19 upset win over Carolina as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears will be challenged with the shortest turnaround in NFL history after playing the Sunday Night Football game before having to play the Thanksgiving Day kickoff game. The Chicago coaching staff lost almost a full day of recuperation and preparation from the typical team playing on a short week. Don’t be surprised if the Bears’ offense is sluggish to start this game — especially with Chase Daniel getting his first start at quarterback in a Bears uniform given the shoulder injury to Mitchell Trubisky. This is just the third career start for the 10-year veteran — and he has played in just two combined games in the last 2 1/2 seasons. Chicago churned out 24 first downs while controlling the clock for 34:19 minutes against the Vikings on Sunday — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a dominating game where they controlled the clock for at least 34 minutes while generating at least 24 first downs. This is a rematch of the Bears’ 34-22 win over the Lions back on November 11th — and Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least two straight games against divisional rivals. And while the Bears have scored at least 25 points in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games. Chicago’s defense should still play well on short rest and a fresh defensive game plan against the Lions. In their last three games, the Bears are allowing only 17.0 PPG along with just 279.0 total YPG. Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Bears have also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on field turf — and they have played 5 of the last 7 games Under the Total when playing in a dome. Detroit has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a narrow win at home by no more than a field goal. The Lions have also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. The Lions’ offense has stalled to a near halt since trading away wide receiver Golden Tate. In their last three games, Detroit is scoring only 17.0 PPG along with managing a mere 274.3 total YPG. To make matters worse for quarterback Matthew Stafford, his second favorite target this season in wide receiver Marvin Jones is also doubtful with a knee injury. But perhaps the biggest injury this offense is dealing with is the knee injury of running back Kerryon Johnson. The rookie had sparked a rushing attack that this Lions team has not benefited from in years. But ever since they rushed for 248 yards as a team in a 32-21 win on the road at Miami, the Lions have not managed more than 94 rushing yards as a team in their last four games. Detroit has then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not rushing for at least 100 yards in four straight games. And while they allowed 331 passing yards last week to the Panthers, the Lions have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The defenses should have the advantage in this early contest given that these two teams just played earlier this month. Both offenses are missing key contributors from that game. Expect a lower scoring game in this rematch. 20* NFL Chicago-Detroit O/U CBS-TV Special with the Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (474) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (473). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (9-1) has won four straight games with their 26-14 win over Arizona last week as a 16.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (9-1) enters this game coming off a 36-31 win over Seattle last week as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in eight of their ten games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in eight of their last ten games. I have concerns about the KC pass defense that ranks second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 289.0 passing YPG. Overall, the Chiefs’ defense ranks 30th in the league by allowing 410.7 total YPG. It is this leaky defense that has Kansas City only out-gain their opponents by +12.4 net YPG. The Chiefs are actually being out-gained on the road by -17.4 net YPG. Additionally, while Kansas City has averaged at least 6.47 Yards-Per-Play, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. And in their last 5 games in the month of November, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games. Los Angeles is out-gaining their opponents by +92.8 net YPG this season. The Rams are very tough when playing at home where they are 5-0 while outscoring their visitors by +12.0 PPG and out-gaining them by +133.8 net YPG. Quarterback Jared Goff has been outstanding when playing at home where he has a 14:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging a spectacular 10.2 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt. It might be tempting to take the points with such a good team like the Chiefs — but history is not on the side of Andy Reid’s team. Road underdogs (or pick ‘ems) with winning records who have won at least eight of their last ten games have then failed to cover the point spread in 39 of the last 50 situations (78%) where those conditions applied. Furthermore, favorites who have won three of their last four games now facing a team that has won at least eight of their last ten games have then covered the point spread in 30 of the last 36 situations (83%) where these conditions applied.

FINAL TAKE: This Rams team is a bit more battle-tested with contests against the Saints and Minnesota on their resume. The best team the Chiefs have played is likely the Patriots who seem to have taken a step back this season. Kansas City also played the Steelers early in the season — but Pittsburgh was not playing nearly as well as they are right now. Look for Los Angeles to pull away from the Chiefs. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (474) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (9-1) has won four straight games with their 26-14 win over Arizona last week as a 16.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (9-1) enters this game coming off a 36-31 win over Seattle last week as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With the oddsmakers installing the total in the 63 range, this is the largest over/under in NFL history. Of course, numbers like this are not uncommon when betting College Football. With the number this high, it seems like the books are begging bettors to take the Under. I am not taking the bait. I see three reasons why this game is going over the number. First, the pace of this game will be fast. Both coaches like to play up-tempo on offense. Neither head coach is very concerned with controlling the time off possession. When both teams are playing fast, that will increase the number of possessions for both teams. Second, both head coaches will play this game aggressively since they both will likely think that they will need to score at least 30 points to win this game. This expectation helps make the Over a self-fulfilling prophecy. Los Angeles has scored at least 33 points in eight of their games while Kansas City has scored at least 30 points in eight of their contests. But Los Angeles has given up 31 points four times including in both of their last two games. Kansas City has allowed at least 27 points in four of their games. Third, since both teams struggle to stop the run, both offenses will have advantageous down-and-distance opportunities on second and third down which will maximize their play-calling flexibility. The Chiefs allow their opponents to average 5.11 Yards-Per-Carry while the Rams allow opposing rushers to average 4.92 Yards-Per-Carry. Second-and-five situations are great for the offense. Los Angeles has played 21 of their last 31 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Lastly, the Chiefs have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: I think both of these teams have already played games that are likely blue prints for how this game will be played out. Kansas City fell behind early but kept pushing the pace before New England outlasted them by a 43-40 score. The Rams were not able to catch up in New Orleans after falling behind in what ended up being a 45-35 final score. With their rule changes in the offseason, this the product that the NFL wants — so don’t be surprised if the referees make some calls that benefit both offenses. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (457) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (458). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-3-1) takes the field again having won four of their last five games with their 24-9 win over Detroit two weeks ago as a 4.5-point favorite. Chicago (6-3) has won three straight games after their 34-22 win over those same Lions last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears have benefited from a soft schedule which has included the Jets, the Bills and the Lions over their last three games. So while Chicago has won three straight games over those cupcakes, they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after winning three of their last four contests. And while the Bears were a touchdown or better favorites in those last three games, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread as the favorite. Chicago averaged 7.73 Yards-Per-Play against the Lions last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after averaging at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, while the Bears have scored a combined 75 points in their last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 30 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Moving forward, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, in their last 7 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests. Minnesota is the healthiest that they have been all season as they return from their bye week. They should play well building off the momentum of their blowout win over the Lions. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win over a divisional rival — and they are a decisive 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 games after a point spread victory. Minnesota goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point Total. And Minnesota has also covered the point spread in their last 4 games in the month of November.

FINAL TAKE: Look for this surging Vikings team to expose the Bears to be not as good as the point spread advertises. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (457) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (457) and the Chicago Bears (458). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-3-1) takes the field again having won four of their last five games with their 24-9 win over Detroit two weeks ago as a 4.5-point favorite. Chicago (6-3) has won three straight games after their 34-22 win over those same Lions last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chicago has scored 75 points over their last two games — both that explosion in points was built on a foundation of seven forced turnovers. While the Bears have averaged 33.0 PPG over their last three games, they have only averaged 329.0 total YPG over that span. Mitchell Trubisky did complete 23 of 30 passes for 355 yards against a Lions defense missing their best cover cornerback in Darius Slay — but Chicago has played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Chicago defense has been outstanding as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 13.7 PPG along with a mere 255.7 total YPG. The Bears surrendered only 76 rushing yards last week to the Lions after giving up just 97 rushing yards the previous week against the Bills. Not only have Chicago then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not giving up at least 100 rushing yards in two straight games. Even better for this unit is that their star linebacker Khalil Mack is healthy again and will play tonight. The Bears host this game at Soldier Field where they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Minnesota has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after their bye week — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Purple People Eater Defense is cranking on all cylinders again with their stud defensive end Everson Griffen back in the mix. Over their last three games, the Vikings are allowing only 18.7 PPG along with just 247.3 total YPG. They should keep it going as they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Minnesota has played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Under the Total — including playing four straight Unders when playing in Chicago. Expect another lower scoring game between two teams whose true strengths lie on the defensive side of the football. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (457) and the Chicago Bears (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (467) and the Los Angeles Chargers (468). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-6) has lost two straight games after their 19-17 loss to Houston two weeks ago despite being a 1-point underdog. Los Angeles (7-2) has won six straight games with their 20-6 win at Oakland last week as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a favorite. The Broncos have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a bye week. Case Keenum did pass for 290 yards two weeks ago in a losing effort — but Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Keenum will is dealing with a host of injuries on his offensive line with starters Ronald Leary and Matt Paradis along with backup Max Garcia unavailable for this game. The Broncos go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49.5 point range. Denver has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against AFC West foes. The Chargers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and the Under is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Los Angeles is allowing just 14.0 PPG over their last three games while not giving up 20 or more points in five straight games. But the Chargers are only scoring 21.7 PPG over their last three games. They retune home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total  — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Chargers have played three straight Unders, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played five straight games Under the Total when the Chargers are the home team. Expect another low-scoring game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (467) and the Los Angeles Chargers (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (454) minus the point versus the Dallas Cowboys (453). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week in Cleveland where they lost by a 28-16 score despite being a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (4-5) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday night with their 27-20 upset win at Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: We had the Cowboys last week as a sizable underdog in a desperate situation for them — but I was immediately concerned with the satisfied look on the face of head coach Jason Garrett and the rest of this team after that win. As if this team is still not facing dire straits moving forward. Dallas remains very inconsistent — they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They upset the Eagles despite being outgained in yardage by surrendering 421 yards of offense — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Injuries on defense remain a significant concern. The Cowboys will be without their best defensive player once again in linebacker Sean Lee. Dallas is allowing opposing quarterbacks to average a whopping +2.24 more Yards-Per-Attempt when Lee is not on the field. The Cowboys will also be without two starting defensive linemen in Taco Charlton and David Irving due to injuries. This satisfied Dallas team remains on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games. They are 1-4 on the road this season while being outgained by -43.2 net YPG due to their offense that is scoring only 16.2 PPG while averaging 312.0 total YPG when playing away from AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 39 games played in a dome. Atlanta got caught last week playing their second straight game on the road after a triumphant win in Washington the prior week (similar to the spot Dallas finds themselves). The Falcons got beat up by the Browns rushing attack which churned out 211 yards en route to 427 total yards of offense. I do expect head coach Dan Quinn to baton down the hatches with his team’s run defense — and the historical record supports this claim. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are 38-14-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last contest. The Falcons had only allowed 140 rushing yards overall in their previous two contests. Quinn has done a fantastic stitching together a defense that has been ravaged with injuries. Over their last three games, Atlanta is allowing only 20.7 PPG. The Falcons need to recommit to running the football after managing only 71 rushing yards on 19 carries last week — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last contest. Returning home will help the Atlanta offense where they are scoring 32.2 PPG while averaging 436.6 total YPG. Quarterback Matt Ryan has an incredible 14:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when playing at home. Expect a big effort from this Falcons team that still feels alive in the NFC wildcard race. While Atlanta has only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November.

FINAL TAKE: This looks to be a de-facto elimination game in the NFC wildcard playoff race. Atlanta has home-field advantage. They have the better head coach in Dan Quinn over Jason Garrett. They have the better quarterback in Ryan versus Dak Prescott. And I expect them to more mentally prepared for this game. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Atlanta Falcons (454) minus the point versus the Dallas Cowboys (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (465) plus the points versus the New York Giants (466). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-6) has lost three straight games — as well as six of their last seven contests — with their 16-3 loss to Washington as a 3.5-point favorite last week. New York (2-7) snapped their five-game losing streak on Monday night with their 27-23 win in San Francisco as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Giants on Monday but we will quickly jump off the bandwagon with this team playing on a short week. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. They upset the 49ers despite being out-gained by -97 yards in that contest — and they lost the first down battle by a 24-17 margin. Now they return home where they are winless this season while being outscored by -12.0 PPG due to their anemic offense that scores only 14.7 PPG at home in the Meadowlands. The Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home —and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This team is not reliable in expected close games either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Tampa Bay dominated the Skins last week by generating 501 yards of offense. They not only outgained Washington by +215 net yards but also almost doubled their first downs by winning that battle by a 29 to 15 margin. A -4 net turnover margin ruined that game for the Bucs facing that Skins team facing massive injuries on their offensive line. Look for Tampa Bay to bounce-back as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 road games after losing six or seven of their last eight games. Behind Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Buccaneers are scoring plenty of points. Tampa Bay is averaging 29.8 PPG on the road with 445.8 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Too much offense from Tampa Bay who should do a better job of limiting their turnovers this week. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Tampa Bay Buccaneers (465) plus the points versus the New York Giants (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (462) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (461). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-5) has won three straight games after their 29-26 win over Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (5-4) looks to build off their 34-10 upset win over New England as 6.5-point underdogs last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Titans have pulled off two straight upset wins as their victory over the Patriots was preceded by their 28-14 upset win at Dallas a 4-point underdog back on Monday Night Football. Tennessee looks due for a visit to Letdown City. As it is, they have failed to cover the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they are a decisive 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight-up win. The Titans did generate 385 yards of offense against the New England defense while averaging 6.31 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP. But now Tennessee goes back on the road where they are scoring only 17.6 PPG while averaging just 304.0 total YPG. The Titans are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams that do not have a winning percentage above .500 at home. Tennessee is also only 10-27-3 ATS in their last 40 games against teams with a losing record. This game has a high Total with the number creeping into the 50s — and this is not the type of game that the Titans do well in. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Indianapolis is one of the hottest teams in the league right now — and they have been propelled by their success in rushing the football. Over their last four games, they are averaging 162.5 rushing YPG while averaging 5.24 Yards-Per-Carry. Perhaps more importantly, they are averaging 30.5 rushing attempts per game over that span — and that commitment to running the ball pays dividends in ways that too many in the analytics community fail to grasp. Moving the chains helps the Colts defense by keeping them off the field and fresh. A credible ground game also helps quarterback Andrew Luck be more effective in the passing game. Luck has tossed at least three touchdown passes in six straight games — and he has his favorite weapon back in tight end Jack Doyle who had missed the first part of the season with an injury. Indianapolis enjoyed an outstanding draft this year with the tear top pick in guard Quentin Nelson out of Notre Dame really paying dividends. Luck has not been sacked in his last 189 pass attempts. Indianapolis has scored 71 points over their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Additionally, the Colts have averaged at least 6.27 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last two games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last four games. Indy did allow 415 yards last week to a desperate Jaguars team — but they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts stay at home where they are scoring 30.7 PPG while averaging 400.0 total YPG — and they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Indianapolis has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as the favorite. Lastly, the Colts are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in the month of November.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis was swept by the Titans last season — so they surely had this date circled on their calendar as a critical point of their 2018-19 campaign. Of course, Andrew Luck was on the shelf last year. Their star quarterback has made a complete recovery from his array of injuries and finally has the support of a strong offensive line. Luck is playing the best football of his career — he should make the difference in this game. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (462) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (455) and the Baltimore Ravens (456). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their humiliating 51-14 loss to New Orleans last Sunday as 6-point underdogs. Baltimore (4-5) has lost three straight games with their 23-16 upset loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have been a disaster on defense this season. They are allowing 456.5 total YPG which is not only last in the NFL but on pace to be worst mark ever in NFL history. After surrendering 130 points over their last three games, head coach Marvin Lewis fired defensive coordinator Teryl Austin who was a hot head coaching candidate for next season just a couple of months ago. Lewis will take over the defense which should result in the players being more accountable for their actions on and off the field. Injuries have hurt this unit — but futility of this magnitude indicates that the effort has not been there. Lewis will get some help on that side of the field with the firing of Hue Jackson who will serve as an assistant coach taking Austin’s place. While I know Jackson is a self-promoting clown most of the time, he is also someone with a long history of working with Lewis including serving on the defensive coaching staff with the Bengals after he was sacked from the Raiders. Jackson also brings plenty of perspective on the Ravens with them being a divisional rival. I expect immediate improvement on defense. They allowed 509 yards of offense to the Saints last week — but they have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Under is also 21-10-1 in Cincinnati’s last 32 games after giving up at least 30 points. The offense is limited still with wide receiver A.J. Green out so expect plenty of Joe Mixon and the Bengals rushing attack to keep the clock moving and protect this defense a bit by keeping them off the darn field. Cincinnati has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and this includes four straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Bengals have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the month of November. Baltimore will be starting rookie Lamar Jackson at quarterback with Joe Flacco still nursing a hip injury. I have seen nothing to indicate that Jackson is ready for this assignment yet — unless operating ineffective specialized packages now serves as an endorsement. The Ravens will likely struggle with their passing game with Jackson under center still not polished with that part of his game at the professional level. But the Baltimore defense remains stout as they allow only 16.0 PPG along with a mere 275.0 total YPG when playing at home. The Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a bye week. Furthermore. Baltimore has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of their game played back in the idyllic days of mid-September where the Bengals won by a 34-23 score with that Total set at 43. Things have changed. Expect a lower scoring game this time around. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (455) and the Baltimore Ravens (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (307) and the Seattle Seahawks (308). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-5) has lost two straight games after their 36-31 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams on Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Green Bay (4-4-1) enters this game coming off a 31-12 win over an injury-depleted Miami team as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Defense has let the Packers down on the road by allowing 31 points three times and 29 points in their other game away from home. Green Bay’s defense is a depleted group right now with linebacker Nick Perry, cornerback Kevin King, and strong safety Kontrell Brice all declared out for this game. The Packers have played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. Green Bay has also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. The Pack plays this game on a short week for them — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total on a Thursday. They also have played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Seattle has played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Seahawks did rush for 273 yards against the Rams. Not only have then played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game but they have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. They should continue to have success against this Packers team that has allowed 482 rushing yards over their last four games on a 4.97 Yards-Per-Carry average. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in their last two games — and they have played 35 of their last 52 games Over the Total after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least two straight games. Furthermore, the Seahawks have allowed 7.35 and 7.81 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last two games — and they have then played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Lastly, Seattle has played 4 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying no more than 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: The loser of this game is in deep trouble when it comes to still making the playoffs as a Wildcard team in the NFC. Given that urgency, expect both teams to play aggressively with a sense of desperation — and that should help our Over. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (307) and the Seattle Seahawks (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (308) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (307). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-5) has lost two straight games after their 36-31 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams on Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Green Bay (4-4-1) enters this game coming off a 31-12 win over an injury-depleted Miami team as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle is better then their losing record suggests as all five of their losses were decided by one-scoring possession — and they are outscoring their opponents by +3.1 net PPG. They should rebound with a strong effort tonight as they are a decisive 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games are a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Seahawks game is predicated on running the football as they lead the NFL by averaging 152.2 rushing YPG — and this attack will be bolstered by the return of running back Chris Carson from injury. This team has the luxury of riding the hot-hand with Rashard Penny, Mike Davis and Carson all likely to get carries early in this game. Seattle should find success against this Packers defense that is 21st in the NFL by allowing 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. Over their last four games, Green Bay is allowing 4.97 YPC while allowing 120.5 rushing YPG. Even without Carson last week, the Seahawks rushed for 273 yards against the Rams — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Seattle is also 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a Thursday night under head coach Pete Carroll. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Now they go on the road for the third time in their last four games where they are 0-4 while being outscored by -9.5 PPG. The defense has let the Packers down on the road by allowing 31 points three times and 29 points in their other game away from home. Green Bay’s defense is a depleted group right now with linebacker Nick Perry, cornerback Kevin King, and strong safety Kontrell Brice all declared out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in the month of November. And in their last 4 games played on the faster field turf, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread all 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is likely an elimination game from the playoff race for the losing team. Despite their five losses, the Seahawks seem to be heading in the right direction after their roster shakeup in the offseason — while the Packers seem to be hanging on by a thread with Aaron Rodgers just not having enough help around him on both sides of the football. Expect Seattle to wear down this Green Bay team. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (308) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (275) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (276). THE SITUATION: New York (1-7) has lost seven straight games after their 20-13 loss at home to Washington two Sundays ago as a 1-point underdog. San Francisco (2-7) enters this game coming off their 34-3 upset win against Oakland back on November 1st as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The 49ers got a surprising performance from Nick Mullens who completed 16 of 22 passes for 262 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in his first professional start in his career. I expect Mullens to get a visit from the ole Regression Gods tonight with the Giants having the benefit of eleven days of studying tape of that performance. As it is, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. San Francisco stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. The Niners are unreliable favorites considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when laying the points. New York is better than their record suggests. Five of their losses have been by 7 points or less — and they are only being out-gained this season by -13.2 net YPG while out-gaining their home hosts when playing on the road. This team should play well coming off of their bye week. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after losing five straight games. Furthermore, the Giants have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. New York has to get Saquon Barkley more involved in this game after only rushing for 37 and 61 yards in each of their last two games. The Giants were out-rushed by 147 yards to Washington in their last game but they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after being out-rushed by a least 100 yards in their last game. New York has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in twos straight contests. Lastly, the Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: For different reasons, both of these teams have experienced disappointing seasons. The Niners are overvalued after their prime-time win over the hapless Raiders in their last game — this should be closer to a pick ‘em which makes the points with the underdog quite valuable. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (275) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the San Francisco 49ers (276). THE SITUATION: New York (1-7) has lost seven straight games after their 20-13 loss at home to Washington two Sundays ago as a 1-point underdog. San Francisco (2-7) enters this game coming off their 34-3 upset win against Oakland back on November 1st as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers got a surprising performance from Nick Mullens at quarterback who completed 16 of 22 passes for 262 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Look for Mullens to regress a bit in this contest with the Giants having eleven days to study that tape in preparation for this game. As it is, San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where at least 30 points were scored. The 49ers’ defense did a great job by limiting the Raiders’ offense to just 242 yards of offense. San Francisco has an underrated defense that 12th in the NFL by allowing only 351.7 total YPG — and that number drops to just 305.0 total YPG when they are playing at home. The 49ers have allowed only two field goals in the first-half in their last two games — and they have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first-half of two straight games. Additionally, San Francisco has played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the month of November. New York has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Giants have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. New York allowed 360 yards of offense to the Redskins — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Giants managed only 303 yards of offense behind the declining Eli Manning at quarterback. His lack of mobility combines with a decrepit offensive line produces a sluggish offense that ranks 27th in the NFL by scoring just 18.8 PPG. New York has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Giants go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Lastly, New York has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total — and they have also played twelve of their last eighteen games Under the Total on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This game shapes up to see plenty of stalled drives where the offenses will settle for field goals. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the San Francisco 49ers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (273) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 28-14 upset loss to Tennessee on Monday where they were laying -4.5-points. Philadelphia (4-4) returns to the field from their bye week after their 24-18 win in Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: This Dallas team has their backs against the wall after suffering two straight upset losses. They had previously been upset on the road in Washington as a small underdog by a 20-17 score before their upset loss to the Titans on Monday. We were against the Cowboys in both those games. But now with the seemingly all the Dallas backers jumping off the bandwagon in favor of the defending Super Bowl champions, this looks like the time to zig against that zag. The Cowboys have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns — and this includes them covering the point spread in nine of their last thirteen games when that upset loss by at least 14 points occurred when they were a home favorite. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 55 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Cowboys need to get Ezekiel Elliott going after they only rushed for 75 yards as a team against the Titans. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Cowboys go back on the road where they may be 0-4 this season but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 games against NFC East rivals, Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. Philadelphia has not won two straight games yet this season — and they failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win as they continue to suffer through the not uncommon Super Bowl hangover. Amari Cooper may have his breakout game with the Cowboys against this Eagles pass defense that is allowing 269.1 passing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. Additionally, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Unfortunately for us, I have seen a few teams seemingly quit on their head coach today. I don’t think that happens with this Dallas team that has a lot of years built up with their head coach Jason Garrett who is generally liked. I look for the Cowboys to respond the adversity they are facing to play hard which should be enough to keep this game within one scoring possession. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (273) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 28-14 upset loss to Tennessee on Monday where they were laying -4.5-points. Philadelphia (4-4) returns to the field from their bye week after their 24-18 win in Jacksonville as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have won and covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games while also playing 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Philly went into their bye week having suffered a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after losing the turnover battle in at least two straight games. Playing just their second game of the season against a divisional rival along with having acquired wide receiver Golden Tate at the trade deadline, the reigning Super Bowl champions are feeling pretty good about themselves. Even without Tate, this offense has begun to hum as quarterback Carson Wentz gets more comfortable under center after tearing his ACL last season. The Eagles averaged 7.28 Yards-Per-Play against the Jaguars in their last game — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after averaging 6.5 YPP in their last game. Philadelphia has played 26 of their last 37 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total against fellow NFC East rivals. Dallas was expected to see an immediate uptick in their offensive production with the acquisition of wide receiver Amari Cooper but they managed only 297 yards of offense on Monday as the team struggled with keeping their offensive identity with their new offensive weapon. I thought the expectations for the Cowboys offense was overestimated before their game with the Titans — and I suspect it is not being underestimated moving forward. Expect a significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball tonight. Dallas has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns as a home favorite. The loss to Tennessee followed up an upset loss to Washington the previous week — and the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after suffering two straight upset losses. Dallas is going to have to generate their share of points in this game given the injuries they are dealing with on defense. The Cowboys are down two of their players in their defensive line rotation with David Irving and Randy Gregory still out — their absence on Monday played a role in Marcus Mariota having his good game at quarterback. Dallas will also be without their best defensive player in linebacker Sean Lee who is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Cowboys need to get running back Ezekiel Elliot more involved in their offense after they have rushed for just 72 and 73 yards in their last two games after rushing for over 200 yards in their previous game against the Jaguars where they won while scoring 40 points. Dallas has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. And in their last 18 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points, the Cowboys have played 11 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three straight Unders with their last contest being that New Year’s Eve game last year where Dallas shutout the Eagles with what looked to be a hapless Nick Folk at quarterback. With Dallas’ season in the balance, expect this to be a high scoring game. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (256) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (255). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-3) looks to build off their 37-34 win over Tampa Bay two weeks ago as a 3.5-point favorite. New Orleans (7-1) has won seven straight games after they defeated the Rams last Sunday by a 45-35 score as a small 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a letdown spot for the Saints after a three-game gauntlet at Baltimore and at Minnesota before last week’s showdown with the Los Angeles Rams. Now asking this team to cover the point spread by nearly a touchdown on the road against a possible playoff team is simply too much to ask. As it is, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least seven straight games. And while the Saints have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. New Orleans has been getting off to fast starts as they scored 35 points in the first half last week against the Rams after racing out to a 17-13 lead the previous week against the Vikings — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after scoring at least 17 points in the first-half of two straight games. Defense remains the biggest concern for this team as they allowed 483 total yards to the Rams last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Saints are second-to-last in the league by allowing 311.4 passing YPG — and they are also 28th in the NFL by allowing their opponents to score touchdowns in 71.4% of their Red Zone opportunities. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while they almost blew their 27-9 halftime lead against the Buccaneers in their last game, they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. The Bengals needed to work on their play on the defensive side of the football during their bye week after allowing the Bucs to generate 576 yards against them in that furious second-half comeback. Cincinnati has allowed at least 451 yards in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 375 yards in three straight games. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They stay at home where QB Andy Dalton has a 9-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio and where the team enjoys a +9 net turnover margin. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And Cincinnati enjoys the best Red Zone offense in the NFL statistically as they scoring touchdowns in 77% of their trips to the Red Zone.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals will be without wide receiver A.J. Green in this game but I expect the team to still be able to move the ball on offense with a strategy focusing on running back Joe Mixon. These are too many points to pass up for a team that plays tough at home (and away from the lights of a prime-time game). 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (256) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (265) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (266). THE SITUATION: Detroit (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 24-9 loss in Minnesota last week as a 4.5-point underdog. Chicago (5-3) has won two games in a row after their 41-9 blowout win in Buffalo as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit will be playing with desperation with that bad loss in Minnesota following up a 28-14 loss at home to Seattle. The entire organization is under scrutiny from quarterback Matthew Stafford failing to throw a touchdown pass last week for the first time all season to the offensive line giving up a whopping ten sacks to the Vikings to Matt Patricia seemingly over his head as a rookie head coach to the team appearing to have punted on the season after trading away wide receiver Golden Tate. Expect this adversity to have rallied this team together — they should come out swinging in this game. As it is, the Lions have bounced back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after losing two straight games by at least two touchdowns. Detroit has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games on the road after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The trade of Tate should create more opportunities for their promising young wide receiver Kenny Golladay so I am not too worried about their offense. While the Lions averaged just 3.48 Yards-Per-Play against the Vikings defense, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 games after failing to average more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, Detroit has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Lions have been reliable in situations like this as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Detroit is also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the month of November — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against divisional rivals. Chicago is riding high with two straight wins by at least two touchdowns as they defeated the Jets by a 24-10 score before dispatching of a Nathan Peterman-led Bills team last week. Yet the Bears were actually outgained by a 264-190 yardage margin to Buffalo while managing a mere 11 first downs. Two defensive touchdowns and a +3 net turnover margin in that game masked a pretty mediocre performance by Mitchell Trubisky who passed for just 135 yards. My longer-term concern with this team is that head coach Matt Nagy is asking his young quarterback to do too much in lieu of establishing their ground game behind Jordan Howard. Expect a letdown in this game especially with the significant uptick in competition against a divisional opponent. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in two straight games when laying the points as the favorite. Additionally, not only have the Bears failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 28 points but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. Moving forward, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago may win this game with this one being played at Soldier Field — but asking them to cover a point spread around a touchdown against an angry and desperate division rival (who remains alive in the NFC North playoff race) is too much to ask. Expect a close game that the Lions have a chance to steal. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Year with the Detroit Lions (265) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (107) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-2) has won three straight games with their 42-28 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Pittsburgh (5-2-1) has won four in a row with their 23-16 upset win at Baltimore last Sunday as a +1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: After falling from a double-digit 4th quarter deficit to the Eagles to begin their current winning streak, Carolina has raced out to a 24-7 halftime lead against the Ravens before enjoying a 35-14 lead over the Buccaneers last week. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after owning a double-digit halftime lead in their last two games. Carolina has won the turnover battle in each of these last three games in part because they have not turned the ball over once during that span — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after winning the turnover battle in at least three straight games. The Panthers averaged 7.98 Yards-Per-Play against Tampa Bay — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Now this team goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, Carolina has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. Pittsburgh earned a big emotional win over their arch-rivals last week — but playing Baltimore always takes a physical toll out of the Steelers which will be compounded by them playing on a short week. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Steelers are just 2-2 this season on their home field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. Lastly, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Expect the Steelers to be a bit flat in this game — and Carolina is a very tough out. Expect a close game where taking the points will have value. 10* NFL Carolina-Pittsburgh Fox-TV Special with the Carolina Panthers (107) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-2) has won three straight games with their 42-28 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Pittsburgh (5-2-1) has won four in a row with their 23-16 upset win at Baltimore last Sunday as a +1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games at home Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Pittsburgh generated 395 yards in that game against the Ravens — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers are 4th in the NFL by averaging 415.2 total YPG — and they are averaging 432.2 total YPG over their last three games. They return home where they are scoring 31.2 PPG — and their four home games are averaging 56.9 combined points scored. Ben Roethlisberger should have a big game against the suspect Panthers’ secondary that his allowing 250.9 passing YPG which ranks 19th in the NFL. Roethlisberger leads an offense that is averaging 313.6 passing YPG — and over his last sixteen starts, Big Ben is averaging 326.2 passing YPG while tossing 39 TD passes. He should have plenty of time to attack the Carolina defense. The Steelers’ offensive line is helping their QB get hit only 8.7% of their passing attempts which is tops in the NFL — and this offense ranks 2nd in the league by seeing their QB get sacked in only 3.1% of their passing attempts. The Panthers are bottom-ten in the league with their 21 team sacks. Pittsburgh has allowed 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total. The Steelers’ strong run defense will likely force Carolina into relying on the arm of Cam Newton. Pittsburgh has not allowed more than 74 rushing yards in each of their last three games. The Steelers have played 28 of their last 36 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in two straight games — and they have played 26 of their last 38 games Over the Total after holding their last three opponents to 75 or fewer rushing yards in at least three straight games. Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Panthers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Additionally, Carolina has played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Panthers scored five touchdowns in the first half against the Buccaneers before going into cruise control and finishing that game with 407 total yards of offense. Carolina has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after generating at least 400 yards in their last contest. Carolina is scoring 33.0 PPG over their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Newton only attempted 25 passes last week which was the second-lowest amount all season. He has tossed at least two TD passes in seven straight games. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (473) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-4) has lost three straight games with their 20-19 loss in London two Sundays ago against the Chargers as a +6.5-point underdog. Dallas (3-4) looks to rebound from their 20-19 loss in Washington two weeks ago as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee has been resilient when facing adversity. They have covered the point spread 13 of their last 17 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Titans have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after suffering two straight losses — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after losing three of their last four games. Tennessee did have a strong offensive performance against the tough Chargers defense as they generated 390 yards of offense which helped them control the time of possession for 35:25 minutes. The Titans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Tennessee has an outstanding defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 18.1 PPG. That number drops to just 16.5 PPG that they allow when playing on the road. And despite their 1-3 record on the road, they are outgaining their home hosts by +9.8 net YPG. The Titans held Malcolm Gordon and the Chargers rushing attack to just 47 yards in London — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The stout Tennessee defense keeps them competitive — three of their four losses were determined by one scoring possession. The Titans gave covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Tennessee has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight appearances on Monday Night Football. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss to an NFC East rival. The team has high expectations for Amari Cooper after trading for him from the Raiders during their bye week. But Cooper underperformed in Oakland with his effort being an issue. Plus, the Cowboys plan to use Cooper on the outside where he can function as a deep threat despite his having more success with the Raiders running out of the slot position. Dallas is just 20th in the NFL by averaging 20.0 PPG — and they rank 27th in the NFL by averaging just 320.0 total YPG. The Cowboys defense has been stout but they took a hit this week with defensive lineman David Irving being declared out for about a month with a high ankle sprain. Dallas has not enjoyed a significant home field advantage as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 55 of their last 98 home games when laying a touchdown or less. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: I do not think the addition of Cooper is the missing ingredient to make the Dallas offense function at a much higher level. Tennessee should keep this game close while having an opportunity to pull the upset. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (473) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-4) has lost three straight games with their 20-19 loss in London two Sundays ago against the Chargers as a +6.5-point underdog. Dallas (3-4) looks to rebound from their 20-19 loss in Washington two weeks ago as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Tennessee generated 390 yards against the Chargers’ defense, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans are stagnant on offense as they average just 15.1 PPG along with only 280.9 total YPG with both those marks ranking 30th in the league. The formula for success for Mike Vrabel’s team is to ground-and-pound and rely on their defense to keep them in games. Tennessee holds their opponents to just 18.1 PPG which is the third-best mark in the league. They also signed a fullback in Ralston Fowler during their bye week which is a strong indicator that they are doubling-down on running the football. This approach helps them with the time of possession battle — they controlled the clock for over 35 minutes in their game against the Chargers. Moving forward, the Titans have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have a strong defense of their own that holds their opponents to only 17.6 PPG which is the best mark in the NFL. It will be difficult for Tennessee to run against this defense that is 9th in the league by holding their opponents to just 96.3 rushing YPG. Dallas only managed 73 rushing yards in their loss to the Skins in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The team hopes that the addition of Amari Cooper will jumpstart the offense by going them a legit number one wide receiver — but Cooper has underperformed over the last two seasons in Oakland has been more effective playing in the slot for the Raiders. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Lastly, Dallas has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: This sets up to be a low-scoring game between two teams with strong defenses who want to run the ball. Even with the low Total, except this contest to finish below the number. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Dallas Cowboys (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (471) and the New England Patriots (472). THE SITUATION: New England (6-2) has won five straight games with their 25-6 win at Buffalo on Monday as a -13.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-3-1) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-27 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams last week as a +7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Green Bay has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, while the Packers gave up 416 yards of offense to the Rams, they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they have played 12 of their last 14 road games after a straight-up loss where they still covered the point spread as an underdog. Furthermore, Green Bay has played a decisive 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Packers have also played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog. And in their last 24 road games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less, Green Bay has played 19 of these games Over the Total. Additionally, the Packers have played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on field turf that tends to reward speed. Green Bay has scored 60 points over their last two games — and they have then played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in each of their last two games. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing on a short week after a game on Monday Night Football. Furthermore, the Patriots have generated at least 381 yards of offense in five straight games — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in four straight games. They return home where they have played 25 of their last 33 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is averaging 42 pass attempts to just 19 rushing attempts in their three road games this season. If the Packers ask Rodgers to pass on at least 69% of their plays on offense as those numbers suggest, this shapes up to be a game with plenty of possessions which will give both these offenses that average 25.0 PPG and 29.9 PPG respectively plenty of chances to put points on the board. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (471) and the New England Patriots (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (472) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). THE SITUATION: New England (6-2) has won five straight games with their 25-6 win at Buffalo on Monday as a -13.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-3-1) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-27 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams last week as a +7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England should be in prime form for this game as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Sunday on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. The Patriots have a number of injuries heading into this game but it does look like at least Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon will play despite being listed questionable by Bill Belichick’s very liberal use of the NFL’s “questionable” designation. They return home where they are a perfect 4-0 while outscoring their visitors by +13.8 PPG and outgaining them by +99.5 net YPG. Tom Brady is leading an offense that is scoring 36.5 PPG at home where he is completing 69.9% of his passes while averaging 308 passing YPG and accounting for 12 all-purpose touchdowns. And during their five-game winning streak, the Patriots are scoring 36.4 PPG and converting 50.8% of their 3rd downs which are both the best marks in the NFL during that span. New England has covered the points spread in 7 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored by not more than a touchdown. Additionally, the Patriots held the Bills to just 46 rushing yards last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. And with this being an expected high scoring game, New England has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Green Bay looks to be at a crossroads after the Ty Montgomery controversy last week that culminated in him being shipped to Baltimore before the trade deadline. This veteran team may not respond well to the trade of Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix since he was playing at a very high level with the move suggesting that management does not believe the team has the potential to make a deep run in the playoffs this year. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Now this team goes on the road where they are winless in three contests while being outscored by -8.0 PPG due to their defense that is allowing 30.3 PPG. Green Bay allowed the Rams to generate 416 yards of offense (with Clinton-Dix) last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This team is also allowing their opponents to average 4.68 Yards-Per-Carry which the Patriots will certainly take advantage. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. This will be Aaron Rodgers first game ever played in Foxboro as a professional — and that is an ominous circumstance for a quarterback that has led his team to win in just eight of his eighteen starts on the road against an AFC opponent. In those eighteen road games against the AFC, Rodgers has been sacked 50 times. Lastly, Green Bay has failed o cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots looked flat on the road on Monday against the Bills — but they should play much better back at home tonight with the challenge of hosting Rodgers. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (472) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (470) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (469). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (6-1) returns home after their 30-20 win in Minnesota last week as a -2.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (8-0) enters this game coming off their 29-27 win over Green Bay last week as a -7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: I don’t love this situation for New Orleans as this is their third straight expected close game with the point spread in +/- 3-point range after they upset the Ravens on Baltimore before dispatching of the Vikings last week. But this Saints team has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning their last two games on the road. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win while going 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a point spread win — so this is a team more likely to build off their momentum rather than suffer an emotional letdown. This is the Saints’ just fourth game at home as well where they are a perfect 3-0 this season. Drew Brees is averaging 348 passing YPG in those three home games with eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions. In fact, Brees has led his team to victory in nine of their last ten games at home while putting up 32.5 PPG in those games. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And despite surrendering 423 yards to the Vikings last week, the Saints’ defense is steadily improving. New Orleans has allowed only 20.0 PPG over their last four contests while allowing just 74 rushing YPG on just 3.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Even better, the Saints are allowing opposing running backs to average just 2.87 YPC so they have the opportunity to slow down Todd Gurley. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Saints have covered the point spread in 10 straight games in Weeks Five through Nine. Los Angeles (8-0) is in a difficult situation as they are playing their fourth game in their last five contests on the road. Not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Rams generated 416 yards of offense last week against the Packers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Rams may be the last remaining undefeated team in the league but four of their last five games have been decided by 7 points or less. The LA defense has also allowed at least 27 points in four of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams’ defense is allowing opponents to average 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. The Saints will have success running the football. Look for a few jet sweeps for Alvin Kamara in the first-half which will force the Los Angeles star-studded defensive line to do a lot of running — which could tire them out for the later stages of this game. 10* NFL LA Rams-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (470) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (457) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (458). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-2) has won two straight — as well as four of their last five games — with their 36-21 upset win over Baltimore last Sunday as a +2.5-point underdog. Tampa Bay (3-4) has lost four of their last five games with their 37-34 loss in Cincinnati last week as a +3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Panthers may be due for a letdown after pulling off their second straight upset victory as their win over the Ravens followed up an upset win in Philadelphia the week before. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning at least two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contests. Carolina has not committed a turnover in two straight games which has allowed them win the turnover battle in both these upset wins. But the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. Carolina is unscathed in their four home games this year — but they are only outgaining these opponents by +5.3 net YPG. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC South opponents. And in their last 9 games when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests. Tampa Bay should play hard for their veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick who appears to be the locker room favorite over turnover machine Jameis Winston. The Buccaneers’ defense has been a mess but their offensive led by coordinator Todd Monken has kept them in most games. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Bucs allowed 402 total yards to the Bengals last week, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay is comfortable getting into a high-scoring game as they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games following a game where at least 80 points were scored. The Buccaneers have scored at least 26 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. On the road, Tampa Bay is scoring 30.2 PPG while averaging 482.0 total YPG. The Bucs have covered the points prawn in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have cord the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Lastly, Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC South opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay’s prolific offense makes them a tough out against any opponent. While I do not expect them to pull the upset, they should keep this game close. 20* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (457) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (454) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (453). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (2-5-1) finally moved on from the disastrous Hue Jackson regime this week after their 33-18 loss in Pittsburgh as an +8.5-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (7-1) has won two straight games with their 30-23 win over Denver last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: I expect an inspired effort from this Cleveland team that has probably grown sick and tired of the empty suit that is Jackson with his constant politicking rather than simply getting in the trenches to coach. After proclaiming that he was going to get more involved with the offense in the previous week, reports are that Jackson failed to follow through on that promise/threat. Now I think Gregg Williams is a raving lunatic — but I do expect the team to rally around him this week with this opportunity to stick it to the departed Jackson. The Browns have been sticky this year with three of their five losses being decided by a field goal. Cleveland’s defense has tons of talent — and they are allowing only 21.2 PPG at home. The Browns have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And while they allowed 168 rushing yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. This team returns home after playing their last two games on the road. Kansas City goes on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they are surrendering 32.8 PPG away from home. Run defense is an issue for this team as they are allowing their opponents to average 5.34 Yards-Per-Carry. The offense has been a machine for the Chiefs behind QB Patrick Mahomes — but they only generated 340 yards of offense last week against the Broncos which might provide a blueprint regarding how to slow down that group. They managed only 49 rushing yards on just 18 carries last week which risks them becoming too-pass dependent moving forward. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Chiefs did average 8.09 Yards-Per-Play against the Broncos — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.0 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. KC has scored at least 30 points in their last three games while averaging 445.7 total YPG in those contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Lastly, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November.

FINAL TAKE: Denver ran the ball 30 times for 189 yards which helped them keep that game close despite it being played in Arrowhead Stadium. Expect plenty of Nick Chubb and (finally) some Duke Johnson as the Browns look to ground and pound to keep this game close. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (454) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Jets (459) and the Miami Dolphins (460). THE SITUATION: New York (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 24-10 loss in Chicago as an +8.5-point underdog. Miami (4-4) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five games with their 42-23 loss at Houston two Thursdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jets have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. New York managed only 207 yards of offense in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. The Jets have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to gain more than 14 points in their last game. New York will be looking to avenge a 20-12 upset loss to the Dolphins back on September 16th where they were 3-point favorites — and they have played 22 of their last 37 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss to their opponent. The Jets should be able to establish a strong ground game against this Dolphins defense that has surrendered 189 and 248 rushing yards in their last two games. Miami has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Texans generated 427 yards last week against this regressing Dolphins defense. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. In their last two games, the Dolphins have surrendered 37 PPG along with 442 total YPG. Miami returns home where they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have also played 12 of their last 13 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Expect this rematch to be a higher scoring game than the first meeting between these two teams that saw only 32 combined points. 20* NFL Over/Under Situational Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Jets (459) and the Miami Dolphins (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (456) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (455). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-4) has lost three straight games with their 36-21 upset loss at Carolina last week as a -2.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (4-2-1) has won three straight games with their 33-18 win versus Cleveland last week as an -8.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore has suffered upsets in two straight games as that loss to the Panthers was preceded by an upset loss at home to the Saints. This has been a tough stretch for this Ravens team — and this is a must-win situation for them. John Harbaugh’s team has been reliable when responding to adversity as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has played four of their last five games on the road so returning home will help. The Ravens are outscoring their visitors by +18.6 PPG while outgaining them by +92.8 net YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by no more than 3 points. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against fellow AFC North opponents — and they are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games in the month of November. Pittsburgh remains inconsistent as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Steelers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Games on the road in the 1 PM ET time slot have been the Kryptonite for Big Ben Roethlisberger as he averages 275.7 passing YPG in his last six road games in the first slate of Sunday afternoon games which is more than 40 yards below the Steelers’ 318 passing YPG average this season. He has tossed only 8 TD passes in those last six road games at 1 PM ET while also throwing six interceptions. Roethlisberger also struggles in Baltimore where the Steelers have lost seven of their last ten games while accounting for 17 turnovers while being sacked 29 times which occurs once every fourteen passing attempts. Pittsburgh has also lost six of their last seven games in Baltimore. Overall, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against AFC North opponents — and they are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Ravens after losing by a 26-14 score at home back on September 30th. Lastly, this Pittsburgh team remains undisciplined in their play as they are last in the league in penalties and penalty yards — and this could make a big difference in an expected close game.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore remains a very good team despite two straight losses to two of the best teams of the NFC. Look for this team to step up with a crucial victory back at home against their arch rival. 25* NFL AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (456) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (308) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Oakland Raiders (307). THE SITUATION: Oakland (1-6) has lost three straight games with their 42-28 loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a +3.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-7) has lost six straight games with their 18-15 upset loss at Arizona last Sunday as a -2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The reeling Raiders have lost three straight games by at least two touchdowns — and that makes them an appealing contrarian option for some tonight. I am not sure the betting line is rewarding that contrarianism with any value with San Francisco only getting the standard home-field 3 points as the favorite — and it certainly is not now with the Raiders being bet to where they are now a small favorite in many locations. Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after suffering three straight losses by at least 10 points. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing three of their last four games. This offense is down two of their top weapons from the beginning of the season with wide receiver Amari Cooper traded to the Cowboys and running back Marshawn Lynch placed on Injured Reserve with a groin injury. Doug Martin will be the main running back for the Raiders despite his averaging below 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in the last two seasons playing in Tampa Bay. Oakland goes back on the road where they are scoring only 13.0 PPG while averaging just 320.2 total YPG. The Raiders are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road. The Raiders are unlikely to bounce-back with a strong effort after being thoroughly defeated in their last game (especially on a short week to regroup). The Colts outgained them by 114 net yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after being outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest. Oakland was outrushed by 119 yards in that loss last week — and they are 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Raiders are last in the NFL by allowing 144.7 rushing YPG — and San Francisco should be able to take advantage of this deficiency considering that they are 6th in the NFL by averaging 133.6 rushing YPG. Both Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert are listed as questionable for the 49ers at running back but both are expected to play tonight. It is 50-50 if C.J. Beathard will take the field tonight given his injured right wrist. Yet even if third-stringer Nick Mullens has to be under center tonight, look for the 49ers to figure out a way to win this game — in head coach Kyle Shanahan we trust (when it comes to the offensive side of the ball, at least). San Francisco has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a loss to a divisional rival by 7 points or less. Additionally, the 49ers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after an upset loss as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after an upset loss as a road favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Oakland has found many ways to lose in the 4th quarter so far this season — don’t be surprised if they find another way to lose this game. 10* NFL Oakland-San Francisco FOx-TV Special with the San Francisco 49ers (308) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Oakland Raiders (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: Oakland (1-6) has lost three straight games with their 42-28 loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a +3.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-7) has lost six straight games with their 18-15 upset loss at Arizona last Sunday as a -2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders have lost three straight games by double-digits with that loss to the Colts. Oakland has played 32 of their last 46 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home including playing five of their last six games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points at home. The Raiders have also played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after suffering at least two straight double-digit losses. Oakland needs to play better on defense after surrendering 461 yards to Indianapolis. The Raiders have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 305 yards in their last games — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after giving up at least 30 points in their last game. Oakland will likely try to establish the run to help keep their defense off the field — the Raiders only had the ball for 23:30 minutes last week. This offense is down two of their top weapons from the beginning of the season with wide receiver Amari Cooper traded to the Cowboys and running back Marshawn Lynch placed on Injured Reserve with a groin injury. Doug Martin will be the main running back for the Raiders despite his averaging below 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in the last two seasons playing in Tampa Bay. Oakland goes back on the road where they are scoring only 13.0 PPG while averaging just 320.2 total YPG. The Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. San Francisco has played 23 of their last 40 games Under the Total after losing on the road to a divisional rival. They managed just 267 yards of offense against a not-so-great Arizona defense while blowing a 15-3 fourth-quarter lead. The 49ers are dealing with a host of injuries on that side of the ball with the most significant being to quarterback C.J. Beathard. The backup to Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with an injured wrist to his throwing hand which leaves him 50-50 to play tonight as of this afternoon’s updates — so this looks like one of those situations where even if he plays, he will not be close to 100%. The third-stringer at QB in Nick Mullens who has yet to take a snap in a regular season game. The Niners are also dealing with injuries at running back with both Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert listed as questionable with injuries. Both are expected to play tonight — but the nagging high ankle sprain to Breida has kept him under 75 yards of rushing in five straight games. This won’t likely stop head coach Kyle Shanahan from trying to run the football as his team has attempted at least 30 rushes in three of their last four games — and they rank 6th in the NFL by averaging 133.6 rushing YPG. The 49ers should have some success in moving the chains against the Raiders defense that is last in the NFL by surrendering 144.7 rushing YPG. Yet San Francisco only scores 19.3 PPG when they are playing at home. Their defense does hold their opponents to just 326.0 total YPG when playing at home in Levi Stadium. Moving forward, the 49ers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the month of November — and they have also played 8 of their last 11 games on a Thursday night Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: With both these teams struggling to move the ball on offense, expect these two teams hungry for a win attempt to win this game on the line of scrimmage. On the short week for both these teams, expect both coaches to look to go back to basics with the hopes of grinding out a win. That is a formula for a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). THE SITUATION: New England (5-2) has won four straight games with their 38-31 win over the Bears in Chicago last Sunday as a 1-point favorite. Buffalo (2-5) has lost two straight games with their 37-5 loss to Indianapolis as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 39 of their last 58 games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored including seeing the Over in five of their last six games after a contest where at least 60 combined points were reached. The New England offense is clicking on all cylinders right now as they have scored at least 38 points in four straight games. The Patriots have then played a decisive 51 of their last 74 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Patriots have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. But while New England is scoring 30.6 PPG, they are concerns with their defense that is allowing 25.6 PPG — and that number rises to 29.6 PPG they are giving up along with 449.3 total YPG to their home hosts. The Bears racked up 453 yards against the Patriots last week — and New England has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Patriots have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Buffalo has not scored more than 13 points in five of their last seven games — and they will be using a guy at quarterback who was sitting on his couch out of the league only a few weeks ago. Those are scary propositions for the Over. But be wary of expecting another low-scoring game from a team that has paid off five straight Under tickets. I expect Derek Anderson to be better at quarterback tonight than he was last week against the Colts where he completed 20 of 31 passes for 175 yards but threw three interceptions. Anderson will have LeSean McCoy at running back tonight as he has been cleared from the concussion protocol — and that will help as the Patriots are allowing 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. If the Bills can reach their 16.5 PPG scoring average at home, then that should be enough to secure our Over bet. Buffalo has played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total on their home field — and they have also played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Bills gave up 220 rushing yards to the Colts last week — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. And in their last 10 appearances on Monday Night Football, the game finished Over the Total 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 encounters in Buffalo Over the Total. I am not sure how the Bills will score in this game — and perhaps Anderson and Nathan Peterman will throw a bunch more interceptions tonight. One way or another, expect this game to finish Over the Total. 25* NFL AFC East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (276) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (275). THE SITUATION: New England (5-2) has won four straight games with their 38-31 win over the Bears in Chicago last Sunday as a 1-point favorite. Buffalo (2-5) has lost two straight games with their 37-5 loss to Indianapolis as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: New England enjoyed a stacked schedule of three straight games at home where they scored a combined 117 points before traveling to Chicago last week. The Patriots are playing just their fourth game away from home tonight — and they are only 1-2 on the road with an average losing margin of -6.6 PPG. New England is being outgained by -152.0 net YPG when on the road which makes their position as a road favorite laying around two touchdowns pretty jarring. The Patriots are allowing home teams to score 29.3 PPG along with averaging 449.3 total YPG. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Additionally, New England is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Buffalo has rebounded to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. The Bills have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread defeat. Buffalo’s loss to the Colts came on the heels of their 20-13 loss at Houston where they went into halftime with a 10-0 deficit. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two straight games. And while they fell behind by a 24-0 halftime score to Indianapolis last week, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after trailing by double-digits at halftime in two straight games. It will be Derek Anderson under center despite him laying on his couch earlier this month. The veteran completed 20 of 31 passes for 175 yards but threw three interceptions in that loss to the Colts. He should be better this week — and he will have LeSean McCoy at running back after he passed the concussion protocol yesterday. The Bills have not scored more than 13 points in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. A -3 net turnover margin helped to do Buffalo in last week to the Colts — but they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after enduring a -3 or worse net turnover margin.

FINAL TAKE: This is just too many points to pass up on a home underdog facing a divisional rival. No bettor feels great about defending the Derek Anderson Experience tonight. Making money sometimes means having to back ugly teams. Remember, we are betting on point spreads — not on good or bad teams. 10* NFL New England-Buffalo ESPN Special with the Buffalo Bills (276) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (273) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-1) won their fifth straight game last week with their 24-23 win in Baltimore last week as a +2.5-point underdog. Minnesota (4-2-1) has won three straight games with their 37-17 win in New York against the Jets last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans will have revenge on their minds after losing to the Vikings in the playoffs last January on this same field on a last-second touchdown pass that spoiled their chances of playing in the NFC Championship Game in that fateful 29-24 loss to Minnesota. The Saints have won five straight games and they should build off the momentum of their nice win against a tough opponent like the Ravens on the road. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and this includes their last four straight games after a victory. New Orleans is playing outstanding run defense as they are holding their opponents to just 2.87 Yards-Per-Carry while leading the league by allowing only 108 rushing YPG. The Saints have not allowed more than 77 rushing yards in four straight games after Baltimore managed that amount last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in their last game. New Orleans did allow 351 yards overall to the Ravens — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Sean Payton’s team usually thrives this time of year as they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games in the month of October. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 road games against teams with a winning record at home. New Orleans certainly will not mind playing in the optimal conditions in the Vikings’ domed stadium — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with Minnesota. The Vikings only generated 316 yards of offense in their 20-point win over the Jets. This team is missing two critical pieces on offense with running back Dalvin Cook and left tackle Riley Rieff both out for this game. Minnesota’s blowout again truth Jets was facilitated by a +4 net turnover margin last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after benefiting from a +4 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Vikings defense is playing better after a slow start this season — they have not allowed more than 71 rushing yards in their last two games. But Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in two straight games. Lastly, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota signed quarterback Kirk Cousins to win games like this despite them pulling out their miracle win over the Saints in the playoffs last year. But this Saints team remains more powerful on offense improving on defense —and they will be a highly motivated team to get a small measure of revenge from last year’s heartbreaking loss. 10* NFL New Orleans-Minnesota NBC-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (273) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-1) won their fifth straight game last week with their 24-23 win in Baltimore last week as a +2.5-point underdog. Minnesota (4-2-1) has won three straight games with their 37-17 win in New York against the Jets last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five contests. New Orleans has also played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less. Expect the Saints to once again focus on their ground game to win the Time of Possession battle which keeps their defense fresh while keeping a good offense off their home field. That was the formula for success last week against the Ravens as they ran the ball 39 times for 134 yards which helped them control Time of Possession for 33:31 minutes. New Orleans is also playing outstanding run defense as they are holding their opponents to just 2.87 Yards-Per-Carry while leading the league by allowing only 108 rushing YPG. The Saints have not allowed more than 77 rushing yards in four straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. Their pass defense received a boost this week with the acquisition of cornerback Eli Apple — I expect him to get some time on the field in this game in obvious passing situations despite just joining the team. New Orleans stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The Saints have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the month of October. Minnesota has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Additionally, the Vikings have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Mike Zimmer’s team has stepped up their play on the defensive side of the football. Over their last three games, they are holding their opponents to just 18.3 PPG along with just 298.7 total YPG. This unit is also the top 3rd down in the NFL — and they will be getting a boost in this game with their elite defensive end Everson Griffen cleared to play again by the team after dealing with some off-the-field issues. The Vikings offense is undermanned with running back Delvin Cook out with a hamstring and left tackle Riley Reiff also out with a foot injury. Minnesota is only scoring 19.0 PPG on their home field while averaging 348.7 total YPG which is more than 30 yards below their season average. But their visitors are averaging just 296.0 total YPG. The Vikings have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have also played 6 of the last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Minnesota offense exploded for 37 points last week, they have then played a decisive 36 of their last 52 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and this includes them playing seven of their last eight games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points. The Vikings had only 316 yards of offense in that win over the Jets but benefited from a +4 net turnover margin. Minnesota has then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least a +2 net turnover margin. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, the Vikings have played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: While it might be tempting to think these two teams with potent passing attacks will get into a shootout, this shapes up to be a game where both teams will be looking to keep the other team’s offense off the field. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (269) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Cardinals (270). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-6) has lost five straight games after their 39-10 loss to the LA Rams last Sunday as an 8-point underdog. Arizona (1-6) has lost two straight games with their 45-10 loss at home to Denver on Thursday Night Football last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINT(S): San Francisco will be playing with revenge on their minds from a 28-18 loss to the Cardinals three weeks ago. The Niners were 3-point favorites in that game and dominated the contest at the line of scrimmage by outgaining the Cardinals by +237 net yards but were stymied by a +5 net turnover margin to give that game away. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss. San Francisco should play better after being overwhelmed by the last remaining undefeated team in the league. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home to an NFC West rival. Despite winning only one game, this team is playing hard for second-year head coach Kyle Shanahan despite the disappointing season-ending injury to quarterback Jimmy Garappolo. San Francisco has lost three of their games by one scoring possession. Second-year QB C.J. Beathard has been solid under center this year save for last week’s game with the Rams. He is supported by a rushing attack that is second in the NFL that averages 127 rushing YPG that will be getting Matt Breida back from injury for this contest. The Niners have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. San Francisco needs to do a better job protecting the football as they suffered a -4 net turnover margin last week after enduring a -3 net turnover margin two weeks ago in Green Bay - and that was the game after their turnover-fest against this Cardinals team. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering at least a -2 net turnover margin in three straight games. Now San Fran goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record at home. The Niners have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in Arizona against the Cardinals. Arizona has only forced seven turnovers in their other six games this season besides the game where they were gifted five times by these 49ers. The Cardinals’ offense is a complete mess as was painfully demonstrated in that Thursday night game where they managed only 223 yards of offense while surrendering two pick-six interceptions returned for touchdowns in just the first quarter of that game. That was too much for rookie head coach Steve Wilks who promptly fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. As if it is McCoy’s fault for a conservative game plan — this is the same offensive head coach who helped Peyton Manning in Denver along with Philip Rivers in San Diego thrive behind dynamic passing attacks. He was replaced by Bryon Leftwich who is considered a rising star in the coaching ranks. But Leftwich cannot fix a broken offensive line that was already one of the worst units in the league before left guard Mike Iupati suffered his shoulder injury that will keep him out for this game. Leftwich has no experience calling plays as well — save for some authority given to him during the preseason. The Cardinals are last in the NFL in rushing yards (64.6 YPG), total yards (220.9 YPG), 3rd down success rate (23.1%) and Big Plays (26). Leftwich can install flashier schemes for rookie quarterback Josh Rosen — but if the young QB still struggles to grasp the playbook, becoming more aggressive with this offensive line might be the quickest route for a season-ending injury for their franchise quarterback. Wilks is struggling in his first year as a head coach — and one of the benefits McCoy brought was years of coaching experience including a stint as the head coach with the Chargers. This is all bad news for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when being listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: While both these teams have only won one game, the 49ers have been much more competitive in their games. Look for them to avenge their earlier loss to the Cardinals. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (269) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Cardinals (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (264) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (263). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-3) looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 45-10 loss on Sunday night in Kansas City to the Chiefs by a 45-10 score. Tampa Bay (3-3) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 26-23 win in overtime over Cleveland as a -3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati should rebound with a strong effort in the bland 1 PM ET time slot away from the national spotlight of a prime-time game that apparently still plagues this football team. The Bengals have lost two straight games with that loss to the Chiefs following up their heartbreaking loss at home to the Steelers — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing their last two games. Cincinnati needs to play better on the defensive side of the football after allowing Kansas City to generate 551 yards of offense the week after the Steelers gained 481 yards. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Patrick Mahomes ripped this Cincy defense for 353 passing yards last week — but the Bengals have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 350 passing yards. They also have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 27 games at home after allowing at least 300 passing yards. Cincinnati has covered 5 of their last 7 games at home overall. On offense, the Bengals managed to generate only 239 yards against the Chiefs’ defense — but they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last game. Shipping in the Buccaneers defense might be just what the doctor ordered for Andy Dalton and company. Tampa Bay is last in the NFL by allowing 32.7 PPG — and this unit that is ravaged with injuries has been particularly soft against passing attacks. The Buccaneers are last in the NFL by allowing 327.5 passing YPG while also ranking last in the league by allowing 18 passing touchdowns. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging a 125.8 Passer Rating which is last in the NFL. Tampa Bay has suffered a season-ending injury to cornerback Vernon Hargreaves while placing middle linebacker Kwon Alexander on Injured Reserve. Sam linebacker Kendell Beckwith is out with an ankle injury while Gerald McCoy and Vinny Curry are dealing with injuries that have compelled the team to declare them out for this afternoon. Ouch. As it is, the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread win. Tampa Bay is also 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of October. The Bucs offense is playing well with Jameis Winston again under center. After gaining 456 yards two weeks ago in Atlanta, Tampa Bay generated 456 yards of offense last week. But Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. But Winston’s return to starting quarterback has also seen plenty of turnovers. After a -2 net turnover margin against the Falcons, the Bucs had a -3 net turnover margin last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after suffering a -2 net turnover margin in their last contest. Now this team goes on the road where they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Back at home playing in this afternoon game, the Bengals should get back to their winning ways with a decisive victory. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Cincinnati Bengals (264) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (103) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (104). THE SITUATION: Miami (4-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 32-21 loss to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Houston (4-3) has won four straight games with their 20-7 upset win at Jacksonville last week as a +3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans are prime candidates for an emotional letdown after their big upset win on the road on Sunday. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after an upset win over an AFC South rival. Furthermore, this inconsistent Texans team has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning their last two games under head coach Bill O’Brien. The Texans upset the Jaguars despite generating only 272 yards of offense with quarterback DeShaun Watson completing just 12 of 24 passes for 139 passing yards. The second-year pro is clearly not at 100% as he deals with a collapsed lung and broken rib. These injuries have limited his dual-threat capabilities as he has rushed for only 15 yards in his last two games. Houston returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games. The Texans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents. And in their last 8 opportunities to play on a short-week on a Thursday, Houston has failed to cover the point spread 7 times. Miami has gotten surprisingly better play out of quarterback Brock Osweiler who seems to perform better in the role of relief pitcher rather than the heir apparent starter. Osweiler is completing 67.5% of his passes while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt while tossing six TD passes to just two interceptions while Ryan Tannehill completed 65.9% of his passes while averaging 7.5 YPA with eight TD passes but 5 interceptions in his five starts before suffering his shoulder injury. Osweiler did a better job of getting the ball out of his hand as he did not take a sack against the Bears defense two weeks ago (but he did take four sacks last week against the Lions with his team playing from behind). On defense, the Dolphins have allowed their last two opponents to average 8.02 and 7.53 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 6.5 YPP. Miami dumped a few of their high-profile players with high salaries in the offseason — but I liked these moves because they left this group under head coach Adam Gase feisty with a better team environment.

FINAL TAKE: We need to remember that we are not betting for or against teams: we are betting for or against point spreads. Asking the Texans to win by a touchdown or more is simply too much to ask of them. Somehow, look for this Dolphins team that has embraced the concept of being the whole being stronger than the individual parts to keep this game close. 10* NFL Miami-Houston Fox-TV Special with the Miami Dolphins (103) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (103) and the Houston Texans (104). THE SITUATION: Miami (4-3) has lost three of their last four games with their 32-21 loss to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Monday. Houston (4-3) has won four straight games with their 20-7 upset win at Jacksonville last week as a +3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins have turned to Brock Osweiler at quarterback with Ryan Tannehill dealing with a shoulder injury. Osweiler was outstanding in his first start against the Bears where he led an offense that tallied 541 yards while averaging 7.21 Yards-Per-Play. The Miami offense slowed down last week against the Lions by generating 322 yards while averaging 6.44 YPP. The Dolphins have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after gaining at least 6.0 YPP in each of their last two games. Osweiler faces his toughest challenge yet against his former team with the Texans’ head coach Bill O’Brien and his defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel likely licking their chops to get after their former quarterback who was an utter flop after signing a big contract with them. Osweiler will also be limited tonight with his wide receiving unit being a M*A*S*H unit right now with DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson all out for this game. After playing their last two games at home, the Dolphins go on the road where they are scoring 14.5 PPG while averaging just 242.0 total YPG. Miami has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, the Dolphins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. Furthermore, Miami is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games Under the Total when playing on a short-week Thursday game. Houston has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Texans won that game despite generating only 272 yards of offense with quarterback DeShaun Watson completing just 12 of 24 passes for 139 passing yards. The second-year pro is clearly not at 100% as he deals with a collapsed lung and broken rib. These injuries have limited his dual-threat capabilities as he has rushed for only 15 yards in his last two games. O’Brien wants his team grinding out low-scoring games as his team has not scored above 22 points more than once this year. The Texans have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to pass for more than 150 yards in their last game under O’Brien. The Houston defense is playing quite well as they have only 12.0 PPG along with just 260.0 total YPG over their last three games. The Texans held the Jaguars to only 70 rushing yards on 22 carries — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. With Miami’s depleted wide receiving corps, they will commit to running the football — but they will go against a Houston defense that is holding opposing rushers to just 3.35 Yards-Per-Carry. The Dolphins have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home  — and they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams wants a higher scoring game — especially when both of these teams are playing on a short week. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (103) and the Houston Texans (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) takes the field again after an embarrassing 34-13 loss at home to Philadelphia as a +1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on national television. Atlanta (2-4) survived a 34-29 victory at home last Sunday against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Atlanta has played five straight Overs in a row — and while I considered the Under as a contrarian play, expecting another higher-scoring game is the sound choice tonight. The Over is 16-5-1 in the Falcons’ last 22 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The injuries on defense have simply decimated that unit for Atlanta — they rank second-to-last in the league by allowing 32.0 PPG while ranking 30th in the NFL by giving up 417.2 total YPG. Additionally, the Falcons rank last in the NFL by giving up 24 touchdowns so far this season — and they are last in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 56.2% of their third downs so Eli Manning should have a good game tonight. As the injuries have mounted, Atlanta has allowed 35.0 PPG over their last four contests. The Falcons stay at home this week where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Over is 11-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 13 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 7 games on Monday Night Football, the Falcons have played 5 of these games Over the Total. New York (1-5) has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have also played 45 of their last 77 games Over the Total after a loss to a fellow NFC East rival. The Giants have also played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss this season. this team gets an important piece back on offense in tight end Evan Engram who has been out with a knee injury. His presence on the field should help Manning while opening things up for Odell Beckham Jr. and their rookie running back Saquon Barkley. The Giants passing game has not been bad with Manning under center — they rank 13th in the league by averaging 260.8 passing YPG. But New York is scoring only 19.5 PPG which is 27th in the NFL. Engram should really help their Red Zone offense. But defense remains a big problem for this team as they are allowing 27.0 PPG. Their lack of a pass rush will afford Matt Ryan plenty of time to find open targets — and two his preferred weapons (and complements to Julio Jones) in rookie Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu who have upgraded to probable for tonight’s game. The Giants have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: While we were robbed of our Over last night in the Cincinnati-Kansas City game on Sunday Night Football, it would be foolish to react to that result with a knee-jerk Under. These high totals in the 50s don’t need much to finish below the number. But both of these defenses are struggling — and both of these offenses are primed to have good games. I will not be surprised if the Falcon score 30 points again which should put the Over in a good situation. 10* NFL NY Giants-Atlanta O/U ESPN Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (475) and the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) takes the field again after an embarrassing 34-13 loss at home to Philadelphia as a +1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on national television. Atlanta (2-4) survived a 34-29 victory at home last Sunday against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has lost three straight games amidst internal drama about the play of Eli Manning. But this team gets an important piece back on offense in tight end Evan Engram who has been out with a knee injury. His presence on the field should help Manning while opening things up for Odell Beckham Jr. and their rookie running back Saquon Barkley. The Giants passing game has not been bad with Manning under center — they rank 13th in the league by averaging 260.8 passing YPG. But New York is scoring only 19.5 PPG which is 27th in the NFL. Engram should really help their Red Zone offense. As it is, the Giants have rebound to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 games after a double-digit loss at home. New York did generate 401 yards of offense against the reigning Super Bowl Champions while outgaining the Eagles by +22 yards. The Giants have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points. New York trailed after the first thirty minutes of this game by a 24-6 score after going into halftime the previous week against Carolina by a 20-13 score. A better start tonight is critical — and this team has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games. New York goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They also have covered the point spread in when playing with extra rest and preparation after playing a Thursday game. Perhaps facing the M*A*S*H unit which is this Falcons team is just what the doctor ordered. Injuries on defense have decimated that unit for Atlanta — they rank second-to-last in the league by allowing 32.0 PPG while ranking 30th in the NFL by giving up 417.2 total YPG. Additionally, the Falcons rank last in the NFL by giving up 24 touchdowns so far this season — and they are last in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 56.2% of their third downs so Manning should have a good game tonight. As the injuries have mounted, Atlanta has allowed 35.0 PPG over their last four contests. The Falcons outlasted the Buccaneers last week despite allowing 510 yards of offense (389 passing yards) and getting outgained by -93 yards. They benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game. But that does not bode well for Atlanta tonight as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 30 home games after a win at home. Matt Ryan did lead Atlanta to outscore the Bucs in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 400 yards in their last game. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October under head coach Dan Quinn.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are looking to salvage seasons that started with high expectations. Atlanta’s fall has been more devastation when considering they made the Super Bowl just two seasons ago but have now experienced seemingly insurmountable injuries. Add running back Devonta Freeman and their veteran kicker Matt Bryant who are also out for this game. The Giants are getting healthier — and they have played pretty well on the road where they are only being gained by -3.0 net YPG. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (463) and the Kansas City Chiefs (464). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 28-21 upset loss to Pittsburgh last week as a -1.5-point favorite. Kansas City (5-1) looks to rebound as well from their narrow 43-40 loss at New England last Sunday night as +3.5-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Cincinnati has played their last two games Under the Total which might make the Under a tempting proposition tonight with the Total in the high-50s — but the Bengals have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. Cincinnati has also played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total in the month of October. The Bengals are putting up plenty of points as they are ninth in the NFL by scoring 29.0 PPG — and that number rises to them scoring 30.7 rushing YPG on the road. But Cincinnati is also surrendering 30.0 PPG when playing away from home. The Bengals have played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Bengals have played 5 of these games Over the Total. Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Led by QB Patrick Mahomes, this Andy Reid offense has opened up for them to be scoring 35.8 PPG this season. The Chiefs generated 446 yards last week against the Patriots while averaging 8.42 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.5 YPP. However, injuries on defense with Eric Berry not having taken the field and now Justin Houston out with a hamstring issue have contributed to them allowing 28.7 PPG which is the sixth most in the NFL. But Kansas City allowed a whopping 510 yards to New England in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 500 yards in their last game. Tom Brady passed for 327 yards in that contest a week after (the now benched for utter futility) Blake Bortles passed for 401 yards the previous week against this Chiefs defense. Kansas City has played 4 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least 300 passing yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Betting totals involves anticipating the likely pace and tempo of the game in question. This is a high total in the 50s — but the Chiefs’ opponents are averaging 45 passing attempts per game which is the most in the NFL. These passing attempts produce bigger yardage plays as well as more stopped clocks which helps to create more scoring opportunities. Expect a high scoring game. 10* NFL Cincinnati-Kansas City O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (463) and the Kansas City Chiefs (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (463) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (464). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 28-21 upset loss to Pittsburgh last week as a -1.5-point favorite. Kansas City (5-1) looks to rebound as well from their narrow 43-40 loss at New England last Sunday night as +3.5-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THEN BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati played good enough to finally defeat their AFC North rivals in the Steelers — but they gave Ben Roethlisberger too much time to engineer a game-winning drive after they tied the score up late in the 4th quarter. Marvin Lewis’ team should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a home favorite to an AFC North rival. Cincinnati needs to play better on the defensive side of the football after allowing 369 passing yards to Pittsburgh. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. But this team is an underrated offensive machine under coordinator Bill Lazor as they rank 6th in the league by scoring 29.0 PPG. This scoring average rises to a 30.7 PPG mark when they are on the road — and they generating 417.3 total YPG away from home as well. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents. Kansas City saw their undefeated season end last week in front of a nationally televised audience — but this remains a team favored by the betting public with Patrick Mahomes almost pulling off the comeback win against the Patriots. The Chiefs have paid off bettors in all six of their games this season — but that is a dangerous bandwagon to jump on to now. As it is, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after riding a six-game point spread winning streak. The Chiefs offense is certainly dynamic as they have averaged at least 424 yards of offense with a 6.24 Yards-Per-Play average in each of their last three games. But the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after averaging at least 400 yards in three straight games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. But with all those passing attempts are also possibilities to turn the ball over — and Mahomes has thrown multiple interceptions in two straight games. The problem for this Chiefs team is their porous defense that is allowing 28.7 PPG which is the sixth-most in the league. Kansas City really misses their veteran leader Eric Berry in their secondary who does not appear close to returning to the field. They will also be without linebacker Justin Houston who is dealing with an injured hamstring.

FINAL TAKE: Despite losing to the Steelers last week, the Bengals are an underappreciated team in the AFC. Expect a close game with the points being very valuable. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (463) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (474) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (473). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-5) comes off a heartbreaking 33-30 loss at Green Bay on Monday as a 9-point underdog. Los Angeles (6-0) remained the lone unbeaten team in the NFL with their 23-20 win in Denver last Sunday as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread in as the favorite. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This is a challenging situation for this Rams’ team as near double-digit favorite when considering that they are playing on the road for the third straight week. While Los Angeles is a power rushing team at their core that generated 270 rushing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Despite their perfect record, the Rams are not playing great on the defensive side of the football. Over their last three games, they are allowing 27.3 PPG. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC opponents. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Niners while also failing to cover the point spread in four of their last 5 trips to San Francisco. The 49ers may be disappointed with the late 4th quarter loss to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Monday but their ability to remain competitive despite the season-ending injury to Jimmy Garoppolo will boost their confidence in this game. C.J. Beathard led an offense that generated 401 yards of offense in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. San Francisco almost stole that game despite a -3 net turnover margin after enduring a -5 net turnover margin the previous week in a loss to Arizona — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after having a -3 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The 49ers need to play better on defense after allowing 521 yards to Green Bay while giving up at least 27 points in the fifth straight game. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 500 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 25 points in five straight games. Despite their record, the Niners have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in two of the last three games. Lastly, the 49ers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC West opponents.

FINAL TAKE: While it is understandable why bettors would want to take the better team in the Rams, it is difficult for even the best of teams to defeat a divisional rival on the road by double-digits. Expect this feisty 49ers team to keep things closer than expected. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (474) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (472) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (471). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-2) looks to build off their 23-17 upset win over Carolina last week as a 1-point underdog. Dallas (3-3) hopes to build off their 40-7 blowout win over Jacksonville last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys are feeling pretty good about themselves after thoroughly dominating the Jaguars last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after a victory at home by at least three touchdowns. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a win by at least four touchdowns. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +14.0 PPG — but it has been a completely different story when they go on the road where they are 0-3 with an average losing margin of -7.4 PPG. The Cowboys are scoring just 12.3 PPG away from home and generating a mere 275.7 total YPG while being outgained by -74.3 net YPG. The decline in offensive production is coming from Dak Prescott and their passing attack that is producing only 156 passing YPG on the road. And while this Dallas team has an underrated defense, they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 30 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. The Cowboys have also not covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Washington benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week against the Panthers — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. This team is doing a great job in protecting the football as they are second in the NFL with the fewest giveaways. The Skins did a great job of playing keep-away as they had a Time of Possession of 35:24 minutes in that game. But Washington will look to play better on defense after surrendering 6.03 Yards-Per-Play along with 269 passing yards. The Skins have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 6.5 YPP — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Washington stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games at home with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Jay Gruden and the Skins coaching staff has certainly spent plenty of time in the offseason preparing for the Cowboys after losing their last four games against their NFC East rivals. Washington has not defeated Dallas since January 3rd of 2016 but that was in the Kirk Cousins era. The Skins have new hope to dispatch of their divisional rivals with Alex Smith under center. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (472) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (454) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (453). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-2) looks to rebound from a 31-28 upset loss in overtime at Miami as a 7.5-point favorite. New England (4-2) comes off their triumphant 43-40 win over Kansas City last Sunday night as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: I thought Chicago would not enjoy playing in the Miami heat — and their defense allowed a whopping 541 yards of offense to a Brock Osweiler-led offense. Expect the stout Bears defense to play better this afternoon as they are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing at least 350 yards and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Chicago has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread defeat. Now this team returns home to Soldier Field where they are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games — and they are also 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 10 home games as an underdog, the Bears have covered the point spread in 9 of these games. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. While the Patriots offense has cranked up over the last few weeks, their defense remains an issue after they allowed 446 yards to a Chiefs team that had no trouble moving the football in the second-half of their game last week. New England allows their home hosts to score 28.5 PPG along with 447.5 total YPG — and that was against Jacksonville and Detroit who are not exactly offensive juggernauts. Chicago head coach Matt Nagy should be able to pull out a nugget or two from what his former team did to this Patriots defense last week. New England sees their offense slow down when away from home as well — they are scoring just 15.0 PPG while averaging only 255.5 total YPG. Lastly, the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: It might look easy to take the Patriots since they are laying only a field goal — but that is likely to suggest a wisdom in the point spread. Expect this New England team to struggle on the road after playing three straight games at home. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Chicago Bears (454) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (468) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (467). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their ugly 40-7 upset loss at Dallas last week as a 3-point favorite. Houston (3-3) has won three straight games with their 20-13 win over Buffalo as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: I have no illusions about this Jacksonville team that seems to be a shadow of the group that almost upset New England in last year’s AFC Championship Game. The Jags have lost six of their last eleven games and have taken a (predictable) step back on defense. And the Blake Bortles situation only seems to be worsening before it reaches its inevitable end. That all said — and after getting burned on this team last week — we want to be investing in situations like this. This is an embarrassed team that has lost two straight games by at least 16 points — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread setback. Now after playing their last two games on the road, this team returns home where they are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 PPG and outgaining them by +167.6 net YPG. Bortles tends to play better on his home field where he is leading an offense that is generating 405.3 total YPG. The team traded for running back Carlos Hyde this week but he is not expected to suit up with the short turnaround — but they still have a capable running back in T.J. Weldon. While their offense managed only 204 yards last week, they ave then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Jags’ defense should also play better at home where they are limiting their opponents to just 13.7 PPG along with only 232.7 total YPG. Jacksonville is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Jaguars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home field. And in their last 10 games against fellow AFC South opponents, Jacksonville has covered the point spread 7 times. Houston may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Texans won that game despite Deshaun Watson passing for only 142 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to pass for more than 150 team yards. Watson is protected by one of the weakest offensive lines in the NFL — expect for him to be in trouble all afternoon against this stout and deep Jaguars defensive line. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Houston goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. And in their last 6 games against AFC South foes, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Even if Jacksonville is just a .500 team at this point, they should play one of their best games of the season at home against a divisional rival. 25* NFL AFC South Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (468) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (452). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-3) looks to bounce-back from a 21-0 shutout loss at home to Baltimore last Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs. Los Angeles (4-2) has won three straight games after their 38-14 triumph on the road at Cleveland as a small 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee’s offense was simply dormant last week as they managed only 106 yards of offense against the stout Ravens defense. The Titans need to get back to running the football — Derrick Henry ran the ball only 7 times in that loss last week. The shutout loss should get the attention of the offense in practice and meetings this week. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards of offense. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes then covering the point spread in six of their last eight contests after a setback. Tennessee also surrendered 361 yards of offense in that game to Baltimore — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 375 yards of offense. Defense is a strength of this team as the Titans ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 PPG while also ranking 8th in the league by only giving up just 337.8 total YPG. These difficult trips to London test the character of teams — and I expect head coach Mike Vrabel’s team to respond with a strong effort. This team’s play on defense improves on the road as they limit their opponents to just 15.3 PPG and just 265.7 total YPG. Tennessee ranks 5th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 214.7 passing YPG — so they should be able to slow down Phillip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing attack. The Titans have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles has the difficult trip of traveling to London from the west coast — and they were already coming off a game on the road in Cleveland. A letdown looks possible for this Chargers team that is feeling pretty good about themselves right now. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Chargers are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while LA generated 449 yards of offense against the Browns defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a spirited effort from this Titans team after their embarrassing performance last week. Their strong defense and a commitment to winning the game at the line of scrimmage should help them keep things close. 25* NFL London Calling Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (301) and the Arizona Cardinals (302). THE SITUATION: Arizona (1-5) looks to bounce-back from their 27-17 loss at Minnesota last Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Denver (2-4) has lost four straight games after their 23-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They surrendered 444 yards to the Rams in their loss on Sunday — but they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they have 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Denver has also played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record overall. The Broncos are scoring just 15 PPG away from home this season — and they are dealing with some tough injuries on their offensive line with left guard Ron Leary out the season with an Achilles injury and right tackle Jared Veldheer declared out tonight with a knee. Furthermore, Denver has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in the month of October. Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Cardinals are also dealing with attrition on their offensive line with center A.Q. Shipley out the season with an ACL tear and both right guard Justin Pugh and left guard Mike Iupati out with injuries. These losses will make things even more difficult for an offense that is last in the NFL by averaging 220.3 total YPG while ranking second-to-last by scoring only 13.1 PPG. Arizona did allow 411 yards last week to the Vikings — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cardinals return home where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and this includes them playing five of their last six home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: With both these teams struggling to move the football behind banged-up offensive lines, points will be hard to come by for both teams tonight. 10* NFL Denver-Arizona Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (301) and the Arizona Cardinals (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (301). THE SITUATION: Arizona (1-5) looks to bounce-back from their 27-17 loss at Minnesota last Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Denver (2-4) has lost four straight games after their 23-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona should play better in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. After playing their last two games on the road, the Cardinals return home where rookie quarterback Josh Rosen will be making his first start in front of the home fans. Rosen helps this offense because he has a better arm than Bradford which allows him the Arizona offense to design route schemes where the former UCLA star can hit tight windows. His pocket awareness also will help with their depleted offensive line. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Arizona is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record. Denver is reeling with second-year head coach Vance Joseph on the hot seat after their encouraging 2-0 start and Broncos’ fans already clamoring for Chad Kelly to replace the struggling Case Keenum who has already thrown 8 interceptions to just 7 touchdown passes. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Denver’s once strong defense has fallen apart as they rank 27th in the league by allowing 407.3 total YPG. It is the run defense that has let the Broncos down as they have allowed a whopping 225.7 rushing YPG over their last three contests with opposing rushers averaging 7.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This could be the breakout game for the Cardinals running back David Johnson who hopes to reimagine his form from 2015 where he generated 2118 yards from scrimmage before seeing his last two seasons derailed by injury. The Broncos are last in the NFL by allowing 161.3 rushing YPG. They gave 270 rushing yards last week to the Rams en route to surrendering 444 yards overall — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. To compound matters, the Broncos are dealing with a host of injuries including their spark-plug outside linebacker Shane Ray who has been declared out for this game with a knee. This team is also dealing with attrition on their offensive line with right tackle Jared Veldheer declared out tonight and left guard Ron Leary already on IR. Now Denver goes on the road on a short week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games. The Broncos have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These Thursday games are a test of a team’s character and a litmus test regarding the health of a team’s culture. These are two teams moving in opposite directions. Denver is in free-fall with injuries robbing Joseph of the opportunity to save his job. Arizona went through this last year but still managed to eke out an 8-8 season. Despite winning only one game so far this season, there is a sense of optimism with the Cardinals having gone younger after having the oldest roster in the league last year. Rosen and first-year head coach Steve Wilks offer this team hope which can be validated by the team earning their first win at home this season. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (277) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (278). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-4) has lost three in a row with their 28-18 upset loss to Arizona last week as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (2-2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-23 loss in Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco should play much better tonight than they did last week. They have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and this includes them covering the point spread in six of their last nine games when that upset loss to an NFC West rival was when they were a home favorite. Head coach Mike Shanahan did get a solid game from quarterback C.J. Beathard running his offense. The second-year QB completed 34 of 54 passes for 349 yards in that game — and the Niners have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The 49ers go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Green Bay generated 521 yards of offense in their last loss to the Lions — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after generating at least 500 yards in their last game. Even in defeat, the Packers outgained the Lions by a whopping +257 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. And Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Don’t be fooled by Green Bay’s good defensive numbers — they rank 4th in the NFL in total defense by allowing only 313.8 total YPG. But those numbers are skewed with their shutout victory at home over the hapless Buffalo offense two weeks ago. Take out that Bills game, the Packers are allowing 28.5 PPG along with 356.0 YPG. Lastly, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is being asked to lay too many points in this one. Expect the 49ers even with Beathard under center to keep this game closer than expected. 10* NFL San Francisco-Green Bay ESPN Special with the San Francisco 49ers (277) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (277) and the Green Bay Packers (278). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-4) has lost three in a row with their 28-18 upset loss to Arizona last week as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (2-2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-23 loss in Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers went into the locker rooms trailing by a 24-0 score in that game — and they left up to 13 points off the board with their place-kicker Mason Crosby missing four field goals along with an extra point. The veteran kicker should rebound at home tonight with a better effort. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Packers have played 39 of their last 49 games Over the Total after failing to score more than a field in the first half of their last contest. And they have played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when allowing at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Don’t be fooled by Green Bay’s good defensive numbers — they rank 4th in the NFL in total defense by allowing only 313.8 total YPG. But those numbers are skewed with their shutout victory at home over the hapless Buffalo offense two weeks ago. Take out that Bills game, then Packers are allowing 28.5 PPG along with 356.0 YPG. Green Bay has played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. They also have played a decisive 21 of their last 26 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents. The Packers have played 10 of their last 15 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Green Bay has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers held the Cardinals to just 220 yards of offense — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco’s defense ranks 28th in the NFL by allowing 29.2 PPG — and that number rises to a 30.3 PPG mark when playing on the road. They rank 26th in the NFL with just 9 sacks — and they are averaging a sack in only 22 passing plays. Aaron Rodgers will likely have plenty of clean pockets against this Niners defense that is making hits on the quarterback in just 13.5% of opposing teams’ passing attempts. San Francisco has played four straight games Over the Total — and they have not only played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing an Over while also playing 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is scoring to score plenty of points in this one — but expect the 49ers offense to keep up find points against the overrated Packers’ defense. Niners’ QB C.J. Beathard was productive last week by completing 34 of 54 passes for 349 yards with TD passes. 25* NFL Monday Night Football O/U Special Feature with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (277) and the Green Bay Packers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (276) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (275). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-0) remained undefeated last week with their 30-14 win over Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite. New England (3-2) has won two games in a row with their 38-24 win over Indianapolis last Thursday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Chiefs have covered the point spread in all five of their games this season with the last three occurring when they were laying the points as the favorite. Foxboro is where these point spread streaks go to die. As it is, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering point spread expectations in five straight games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games as the favorite. KC has scored at least 27 points in all five of their games this year — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight games while also failing to cover the point spread in 3 of the last 4 games after scoring at least 25 points in five straight contests. And while they generated 424 yards in that win over Jacksonville last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New England has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They generated 438 yards of offense in their win over the Colts — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Patriots did surrender 439 yards in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 350 yards as well. New England is also 36-14-2 ATS in their last 52 games in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: Bill Belichick coached-teams are a perfect 23-0 at home when facing quarterbacks below the age of 25 — and while that does not take into account the point spread, his coaching staff has the benefit of a few extra days to prepare for Patrick Mahomes after their Thursday game last week. This will be a fired-up Patriots team that will remember the 42-27 beatdown they suffered at the hands of the Chiefs in Game One of last year. 10* NFL Kansas City-New England NBC-TV Special with the New England Patriots (276) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (275) and the New England Patriots (276). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-0) remained undefeated last week with their 30-14 win over Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite. New England (3-2) has won two games in a row with their 38-24 win over Indianapolis last Thursday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes is an exciting young quarterback — but as the Denver Broncos have already shown, he can be slowed down. The second-year QB “only” threw for 304 yards in that game which was the last time the Chiefs were on the road two weeks ago — and they exposed some tendencies that the Patriots’ defensive staff can exploit. More importantly, Kansas City scored only 27 points in that game — and a similar effort would keep this game Under the Total. Mahomes still have some technique issues while being too eager to leave the pocket — and I expect the New England defense to use take advantage of these flaws his game. The more tape that gets created on these new starting QBs, the more opposing coaching staffs find areas to attack. It is telling that Mahomes has only thrown one touchdown pass in his last 95 passing attempts. The Chiefs offense was also responsible for seven offensive penalties the last time they played in front of a hostile environment in that Broncos game. As it is, Kansas City has 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two straight games. The Chiefs game with the Broncos was their lowest scoring game of the season. Not only have they played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games but they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. KC raced out to a 20-0 halftime lead against the Jaguars last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total owning a two-touchdown lead at halftime of their last game. The Chiefs have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New England has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Patriots are going to play ball-control offense and keep-away to burn time off the clock to frustrate Mahomes (and his head coach Andy Reid who almost always gets stymied by this tactic in the playoffs). New England has gone to halftime in their last two games with 24-3 and 24-0 leads — and they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. The Patriots generated 438 yards of offense last week against the Colts after gaining 449 yards in their previous game against the Dolphins — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. Furthermore, not only has New England played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road but they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: Look, I know that scoring is up — and we have successfully take a bunch Overs this year. But this just looks like irrational exuberance that this Total was bet up into the 60s at one point as if this is a Big 12 contest. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (275) and the New England Patriots (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (271) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (3-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-14 loss in Kansas City last week as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (2-3) has also lost two of their last three games with their 19-16 loss in overtime in Houston last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Quarterback Blake Bortles did pass for 430 yards in that game while leading an offense that generated 502 yards of offense. But he also threw four interceptions which buried his team. He tends to play better after embarrassing efforts — and Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Jags surrendered 298 passing yards to the Chiefs in that game — but they are a decisive 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after not allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They should slam the door on this one-dimensional Cowboys’ offense that lacks credible targets in the passing game. Jacksonville will be able to play eight players in the box to slow down Ezekiel Elliott since Dallas cannot burn them down the field in the passing game given their outstanding cover corners led by Jalen Ramsey. Dallas (2-3) is a mess given the turmoil surrounding this team with the Dez Bryant fallout and now the questioning of head coach Jason Garrett after he decided to punt on 4th down in overtime against the Texans which contributed to that outright loss. Bad vibes in Big-D. They have not covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. Frankly, they were fortunate to even see overtime against the Texans considering that they were outgained by a 462 to 292 margin in yards. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. This Cowboys team also does not retain much of a home-field advantage in Jerry World either — in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Bortles should do a better job protecting the football in this game where the offense does not have to play aggressively — this is his kind of game with the outstanding Jaguars’ defense leading the way. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (271) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (270) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (269). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-0) remained undefeated this season with their 33-31 win in Seattle last week as a 7.5-point favorite. Denver (2-3) looks to bounce-back from their 34-16 loss in New York against the Jets as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Rams may get caught reading the press clippers regarding their supposed inevitable Super Bowl appearance this season. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road off a game they won but failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Los Angeles is certainly clicking on offense after generating 468 yards of offense last week against the Seahawks. The Rams have scored at least 33 points in all five of their games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in five straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is struggling with his defense despite all the high profile acquisitions in the offseason. The secondary is missing Aqib Talib who is on Injured Reserve which has left cornerback Marcus Peters too often exposed against number one wide receivers. Opposing QBs have throw 8 touchdown passes with zero interceptions over their last three games. The lack of a pass rush is not helping — your Super Bowl locks are actually last in the NFL with just ten sacks this season while ranking eighth from the bottom with just 24 hits on the quarterback. Yet it is the run defense that may be the biggest concern for this unit as they are allowing opposing rushers to average 4.86 Yards-Per-Carry. Denver will run the football to burn time off the clock to keep the Rams’ potent offense off the field. The Broncos are averaging 5.6 YPC which has resulted in 137 rushing YPG — so they should have success running the football. This formula almost worked against Kansas City two weeks ago as they held the lead until Patrick Mahomes engineered that late drive that allowed them to escape Mile High with a 27-23 win. Denver needs to play better on defense after allowing the Jets to generate 323 rushing yards en route to their overall 512 yards of offense. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 150 yards in their last game. And in their last 16 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game, Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of these contests. The Broncos do play better at home where they are 2-1 while outgaining their opponents by +38.3 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams are laying too many points — expect Denver to keep this a close game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Special with the Denver Broncos (270) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (258) plus (or minus) the points versus the Carolina Panthers (257). THE SITUATION: Carolina (3-1) has won two straight games with their 33-31 win over the Giants last Sunday as a 7-point favorite after Graham Gano nailed a 63-yard field goal as time expired in the fourth quarter. Washington (2-2) picks themselves off the mat on a short work week for them after they were humiliated on national television by a 43-19 score in New Orleans as a +5.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE WASHINGTON PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: The Skins should bounce-back with a strong effort as they are a better team than what they showed on Monday. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. The Skins have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Returning home will help where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. This team needs to get back to running the football as they attempted only 18 rushes for a measly 39 yards against the Saints. Chris Thompson ran the ball only 8 times for 17 yards. Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Expect the Skins to play better on the defensive of the football as well after being torched by Drew Brees for 349 passing yards. The Skins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 300 passing yards. And while New Orleans averaged 7.45 Yards-Per-Play, Washington has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. Carolina has won their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning two straight games. The Panthers have scored 64 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Carolina did surrender 432 yards to the Giants(!) offense last week — and they are just 6-14-2 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This is not a reliable road favorite as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when laying no more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams are closer in quality than the point spread suggests. Don’t be shocked if Washington pulls the upset but take the points for some insurance. 20* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Washington Redskins (258) plus (or minus) the points versus the Carolina Panthers (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (262) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (261). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-2-1) is feeling pretty good about themselves after their 41-17 dismantlement of the M*A*S*H unit that is the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (4-1) has won two straight games with their 27-17 win over Miami as a 6.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Pittsburgh is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games against AFC North opponents, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in all 5 games. Cincinnati tends to play better with the confidence compiled from positive momentum. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and not only have they covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win but they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after paying off bettors in two of their last three games. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. And in their last 8 games against fellow AFC opponents, Cincinnati has covered the point spread all 8 times — and this includes four straight games against fellow AFC North foes.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have won the last six meetings between these two teams — so this is a huge game for the Bengals. Pittsburgh is making tons of mistakes this year but relying on Big Ben Roethlisberger to save them time and time again. Look for them to make one mistake too many against this Cincinnati team that is playing confident football with six big chips on their shoulder having not defeated the Steelers since the idyllic days of our innocence back on November 1st, 2015. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (262) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (256) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (255). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-1) has won three straight games after they dismantled Tampa Bay two weeks ago by a 48-10 score as a 3-point favorite. Miami (3-2) has lost two straight games with their 27-17 loss at Cincinnati as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are the toast of the NFL right now with their intimidating defense led by Khalil Mack and their new wave offense under rookie head coach Matt Nagy. But before we anoint this team as the reincarnation of the 1985 Bears, let’s remember that this team has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home at Soldier Field. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a bye week. Nagy’s game planning was clicking on all cylinders against the Buccaneers defense as they raced out to an incomparable 38-3 lead at halftime of that game while generating a total of 483 yards of offense. But the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They were some cracks in the armor of this Chicago defense as they surrendered 251 passing yards in that game — and they are then a decisive 18-39-1 ATS in their last 58 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And in their last 18 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of these contests. Miami will be looking to play better in this game after following up getting trounced in New England they blew a 14-0 halftime lead against the Bengals in Cincinnati last week. They were done in the second-half by a 22-yard interception return for a touchdown as well as a 19-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than a field in the first half of their last game. This is a scrappy group that head coach Adam Gase has kept together this season after they let go of some of their underperforming big personalities in this offseason. This team returns home where they are tough to play against. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting less than 7 points. UPDATE: the reports coming in late Saturday night is that QB Ryan Tannehill has an ankle sprain and is listed as questionable for this game. The point spread is moving is adjusting with the Dolphins getting more than 4 points in most locations. Brock Osweiler will go under center for Miami if Tannehill cannot go. While that is a downgrade, that is a QB with plenty of experience. The recipe for success with Miami remains winning this game on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

FINAL TAKE: I hate this situation for the Bears. I don’t like it when teams on hot streaks go into their bye week as it tends to cool off their momentum. And speaking of cooling off, this Chicago team will likely be dreaming of their hotel air conditioners or at least the crisp fall air in the Windy City about ten minutes into this game at South Beach where it remains hot as blazes. Former Miami Dolphin Brian Cox claimed that this Bears team is going to “melt” before this game is over — we have certainly seen the Patriots perform poorly in the Miami heat once it turns into fall in the north. The Dolphins should play very well in this game. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (256) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (103) minus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (104). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-3) has lost two straight games after their 23-21 loss at home to Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point favorite. New York (1-4) has also lost two in a row after their hearts were broken by Graham Gano’s 63-yard field goal which allowed the Panthers to steal a 33-31 victory in Carolina as a 7-point home favorite over the Giants.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The reigning Super Bowl Champions will be playing with a sense of desperation in this game playing on a short week after losing their last two games. As this team showed last year, they play their best football with their backs against the wall. And this is a gut check moment for this team with the injuries on offense with running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles out along with their All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson now added to the injury list this morning with an ankle injury. But the strength of this Eagles team remains their depth along with their outstanding play on lines of scrimmage — and I find this component to be critical to level their record at 3-3 against this struggling Giants team. This team is still playing quality football — they have only lost these last two games by 5 combined points. Even with these injuries on offense, the Eagles generated 364 yards of offense against an angry Vikings’ defense that was embarrassed in their previous game against the Rams — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Philly defense gave up 298 passing yards to Minnesota — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles are still playing stout on the defensive side of the football as they are allowing only 20.8 PPG which is 7th in the NFL. This defense ranks second in the league by only allowing 66.4 rushing YPG — and opposing rushers are averaging 2.78 YPC. This should help them play well on this short week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on Thursday Night Football. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of October — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against fellow NFC opponents. Furthermore, the Eagles are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 trips to the Meadowlands to face the Giants. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The state of the Giants defense is a concern as they are allowing 124.4 rushing YPG which ranks 27th in the NFL. Those 31 points they scored against the Panthers were the first time that the Giants reached the 30-point threshold in their last 37 games. But this remains an unbalanced offense even with rookie Saquon Barkley as they are scoring only 20.8 PPG which is 23rd in the NFL while averaging just 75.6 rushing YPG which ranks 28th in the league. With tight end Evan Engram not yet recovered from his knee injury, quarterback Eli Manning has only three viable targets in the passing game in Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard along with Barkley out of the backfield. This lack of diversity should help defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to dial up a good defensive game plan. Back at home in the Meadowlands, the Giants are scoring only 16.5 PPG while averaging just 311.5 total YPG. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 home games as an underdog getting up to 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: In this gut check game played on a short week for both teams, coaching and team chemistry will play important roles in making small differences in this game. The defending Super Bowl Champions have a significant advantage in both those intangibles than this Giants’ team that has seen their internal squabbles about Manning’s declining skills go public. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (103) minus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (103) and the New York Giants (104). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-3) has lost two straight games after their 23-21 loss at home to Minnesota last week as a 3.5-point favorite. New York (1-4) has also lost two in a row after their hearts were broken by Graham Gano’s 63-yard field goal which allowed the Panthers to steal a 33-31 victory in Carolina as a 7-point home favorite over the Giants.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a gut check game for both these NFC East teams — and I look for both teams to attempt to impose their will at the line of scrimmage on this short week game. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Eagles have lost these last two games by 5 combined points — and they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing their last two games by 6 points or less. Philly has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. The Eagles are banged up on offense especially with their rushing attack. Running back Jay Ajayi was put on Injured Reserve with his ACL injury while Darren Sproles will remain out for this game hamstring. Corey Clement will play but he is still dealing with a groin — and Philly’s All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson was added the injury list this morning being questionable with an ankle. As it is, Philadelphia is scoring only 20.6 PPG which is 25th in the NFL. Yet despite this attrition, the Eagles are likely to try to run the ball behind Wendell Smallwood against this Giants’ defense that ranks 27th in the league by allowing 124.4 rushing YPG. Philadelphia is still playing stout on the defensive side of the football as they are allowing only 20.8 PPG which is 7th in the NFL. They have not allowed more than 77 rushing yards this season — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in five straight games. This defense ranks second in the league by only allowing 66.4 rushing YPG — and opposing rushers are averaging 2.78 YPC. But the Eagles did give up 298 passing yards last week — yet Philly has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Those 31 points they scored against the Panthers were the first time that the Giants reached the 30-point threshold in their last 37 games. But this remains an unbalanced offense even with rookie Saquon Barkley as they are scoring only 20.8 PPG which is 23rd in the NFL while averaging just 75.6 rushing YPG which ranks 28th in the league. Back at home in the Meadowlands, the Giants are scoring only 16.5 PPG while averaging just 311.5 total YPG. With tight end Evan Engram not yet recovered from his knee injury, quarterback Eli Manning has only three viable targets in the passing game in Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard along with Barkley out of the backfield. This lack of diversity should help defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to dial up a good defensive game plan. Manning did pass for 326 yards last week against the Carolina defense — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards. New York returns home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total. The Giants have also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total as an underdog — and this includes them playing eight of their last ten games Under the Total at home as an underdog. And in their last 5 games against fellow NFC East foes, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: The loser of this game finds themselves in a big hole in the NFC East standings. My expectation of both coaches wanting to be physical and win at the line of scrimmage should translate into both teams looking establish their rushing attack — and this will shorten the length of the game. 25* NFL NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (103) and the New York Giants (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (478) minus the points versus the Washington Redskins (477). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-1) returns to the field after their bye week after upsetting Green Bay two weeks ago by a 31-17 score as a 2.5-point underdog. New Orleans (3-1) enters this game coming off their 33-18 win at New York against the Giants as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Skins are likely to suffer a letdown in this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory. Washington has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset win by at least two touchdowns as a home underdog. The extra week to rest and prepare is not likely to help the Skins considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a bye week. This Washington team has a good defense — but stopping the run is an issue that opponents with balanced offenses can exploit. The Skins were last in the NFL last season by allowing 134.1 rushing YPG. This season, the rush defense looks better on paper because they are only allowing 91 rushing YPG. However, opponents are only averaging 20 rushing attempts per game. The 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry average Washington is allowing this season is exactly the same mark they allowed last year. The Saints are seeing the return of running back Mark Ingram at just the right time after he served a four-game suspension. Additionally, the Skins have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when playing on Monday Night Football. New Orleans should build off the moment of their three-game winning straight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win on the road. The Saints have paid off bettors in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. New Orleans returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after playing their last two games on the road. The Saints have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. This is a good time to back New Orleans as well as they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: Expect the Saints to simply have too much on offense against this solid but unspectacular Washington team. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Saints (478) minus the points versus the Washington Redskins (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (477) and the New Orleans Saints (478). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-1) returns to the field after their bye week after upsetting Green Bay two weeks ago by a 31-17 score as a 2.5-point underdog. New Orleans (3-1) enters this game coming off their 33-18 win at New York against the Giants as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. New Orleans generated 389 yards in that contest with the Giants — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Drew Brees leads a powerful offense that is scoring 34.2 PPG while averaging 418.2 total YPG — and they get running back Mark Ingram back from his four-game suspension which gives them a power running back while keeping the electric Alvin Kamara fresh. But the Saints’ defense has been another story — and they are allowing their visitors to score 33.0 PPG along with averaging 428.0 total YPG in the Superdome this season. New Orleans has played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Saints have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on Monday Night Football. The New Orleans lack of a pass rush will likely give Washington quarterback Alex Smith plenty of time to pick apart their secondary. The Saints are fourth from the bottom of the league with just 18 hits on the quarterback and their nine sacks are 12th from the bottom. The Skins have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Washington has also played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total in the month of October. Furthermore, the Skins have played 15 of their last 21 games on the road Over the Total — and this includes them playing seven of their last eight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Total is in the low-50s for this game. Scoring is up this season with the offseason rule changes helping the offenses in protecting the quarterback and in being more liberal in defining what a catch is. Plenty of these games are still finishing below the number — but both these teams tend to play higher-scoring games so I do expect this to be a shootout. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (477) and the New Orleans Saints (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (475) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (476). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-2) looks to build off their 26-24 win over Detroit yesterday as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (1-3) earned their first victory of the season last Sunday with their 37-34 win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys got their ground game cranked up against the Lions. Running back Ezekiel Elliott ran the ball 25 times for 152 yards to the lead for the Dallas offense- The Cowboys have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game (although don’t be surprised if Elliott a nice game catching the ball out of the backfield). Dallas tends to raise their level of play in the month of October under head coach Jason Garrett — they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October. Now the Cowboys go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Dallas defense is underrated — they are allowing only 20.0 PPG along with just 294.0 total YPG on the road so far this season. They are third in the NFL in sacks led by linebacker DeMarcus Lawrence who leads the league with his 5.5 sacks. He should feast on this terrible Texans offensive line that has allowed 45 hits to the quarterback which is the most in the NFL. Deshaun Watson has been sacked 17 times this year which is the second most in the NFL. He did pass for 375 yards while leading his offense to 466 total yards against the suspect Colts’ defense — but Houston has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Texans got a jolt of confidence by earning their first win of the season — but they have then failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up victory. Houston has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: While the Texans entered the season as a trendy dark horse Super Bowl team, bettors have not seen to have caught up to the fact that their weaknesses on their offensive line and defense most likely will limit what this team can do this season. Dallas is a solid football team with a good opportunity to win this game outright. 10* NFL Dallas-Huston NBC-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (475) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the Houston Texans (476). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-2) looks to build off their 26-24 win over Detroit yesterday as a 2.5-point favorite. Houston (1-3) earned their first victory of the season last Sunday with their 37-34 win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Dallas generated 414 yards of offense last week against the Lions — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But now the Cowboys go back on the road where they are scoring just 10.5 PPG along with averaging only 267.5 total YPG. Dallas has played 21 of their last 27 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Cowboys defense surrendered 382 total yards last week — but they have then played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Dallas defense is underrated — they are allowing only 20.0 PPG along with just 294.0 total YPG on the road so far this season. They are third in the NFL in sacks led by linebacker DeMarcus Lawrence who leads the league with his 5.5 sacks. He should feast on this terrible Texans offensive line that has allowed 45 hits to the quarterback which is the most in the NFL. Deshaun Watson has been sacked 17 times this year which is the second most in the NFL. He did pass for 375 yards while leading his offense to 466 total yards against the suspect Colts’ defense — but Houston has played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Texans have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while the underachieving Houston defense gave up 478 yards last week, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas lacks down-the-field targets at wide receiver while the Texans have one of the least capable offensive lines in the league. With these two offenses, both burdened by significant flaws, expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (475) and the Houston Texans (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (469) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (470). THE SITUATION: Arizona has lost two straight games after their 20-17 loss to Seattle last Sunday as a +3.5-point underdog. San Francisco (1-3) looks to rebound from a 29-27 loss in Los Angeles to the Chargers as +10.5-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona has bounced-back to cover the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. Arizona remains the last remaining winless team in the NFL — but they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing their last two contests. They will certainly be playing with a level of desperation. And this team can find confidence in the encouraging play of quarterback Josh Rosen. The rookie completed 15 of 27 passes for 180 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions last week — and his ability to hit tight windows with his strong arm gives this offense a new dynamic that simply was not there with Sam Bradford. The improving hamstring of wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald helps matters as well. The Cardinals need to do a better job of protecting the football as they have lost the turnover battle in their last two games. Arizona has covered the point spread in 47 of their last 76 games after suffering a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. San Francisco got a good game out of their second-year quarterback C.J. Beathard who passed for 298 yards while leading an offense that generated 364 yards of offense. But the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Arizona will benefit from getting recent tape on Beathard from last week. San Fran has issues on defense — after giving up 35 first-half points to Kansas City two weeks ago, they surrendered another 17 points in the first 24 minutes against the Chargers. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after giving up at least 17 first-half points in two straight games. San Francisco returns home after playing their last two games on the road. But the Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona is playing solid football — they have lost their last two games by just five combined points. This should be another close game that the Cardinals can win with Rosen under center. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Arizona Cardinals (469) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (468) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (467). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-2) looks to build off their 29-27 win over the 49ers last week as a 10.5-point favorite. Oakland (1-3) earned their first victory of the season last week with their 45-42 overtime win at home against Cleveland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders have been a hot mess under head coach Jon Gruden — they have been consistently disorganized while players and coaches are making too many mental mistakes. They were given a few gifts from the referees to survive that game with the Browns. But Oakland has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. The Raiders are generating plenty of offense — QB Derek Carr passed for 437 yards last week to lean an offense that gained 565 total yards. Carr passes for 325 yards in his previous game — but the Raiders have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 300 passing yards in two straight games. That offense has suffered a big blow with the need to place their veteran left tackle Donald Penn on Injured Reserve. Carr has not been nearly as effective when playing on the road where he has lost eight of his last nine games while committing 13 turnovers. While the Raiders may have a large contingent of fans at this game with it being played on Los Angeles where there is not a ton of love for the Chargers, this is still an unfamiliar playing environment for Carr. The Oakland offense will not have much room for error considering how terrible their defense is — they are allowing 30.7 PPG and the 123 points they have allowed is worst in the NFL. Their defense without Khalil Mack is last in both sacks and hits on the quarterback. Philip Rivers will have a clean pocket with all the time he needs to pick apart this Raiders’ secondary. Rivers enjoys a 15:2 touchdown to interception ratio over his last six starts going back to last season. The Chargers should play well in this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while LA allowed 288 passing yards to the 49ers, they are then 3-1-1 ATS after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Chargers are playing high-scoring games with all four of their contests seeing at least combined 51 points scored. But Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after seeing at least 50 combined points scored in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders just surrendered 42 points to Baker Mayfield who was making his first professional start. Mayfield may have tons of potential — but Philip Rivers is a bad mad with plenty of healthy weapons right now. While the Chargers do not enjoy much of a favorable home crowd, these critics fail to appreciate that familiarity plays a large role in creating home field advantage. 25* NFL AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (468) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (460) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (459). New York (1-3) looks to snap a three-game losing streak with their 31-12 loss in Jacksonville yesterday. Denver (2-2) looks to rebound from their 27-23 loss to Kansas City on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The Broncos face a difficult situation traveling east to play in the 1 PM ET slot of games after playing on a short week. As it is, Denver is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on a Sunday after a game for Monday Night Football. The Broncos have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Denver did generate 385 yards of offense in that game — but they are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. QB Case Keenum is second in the NFL with six interceptions and he has not thrown a touchdown pass in three weeks. His 60.1 Passer Rating is third from the bottom of all NFL starting QBs. The Broncos defense surrendered 446 yards to the Chiefs in that game — and they are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This is Denver’s just second game away from home this year — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on the road. New York will be desperate for a win after losing three straight games. They do return home to the Meadowlands for just the second time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home. The offense only generated 178 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. It has been a trial by fire for Sam Darnold who played three games in the first eleven days of the season before then traveling to play the elite Jaguars defense last week. Don’t be surprised if the rookie steps up to play his best game of the season this afternoon. The Jets defense should play better as well — they rank in the top six in the league by holding their opponents to just 5.2 Yards-Per-Play and they have also forced 10 turnovers. New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Look for the Jets’ defense to step up and help New York end their three-game losing streak. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the New York Jets (460) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (458) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-3) looks to bounce-back from their 22-0 shutout loss at Green Bay as an 8.5-point underdog. Tennessee (3-1) has won three straight games after their 26-23 upset win over Philadelphia in overtime as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen was even worse on the tape that his stats indicate. He completed just 16 of 33 passes for 151 yards with two interceptions. The rookie is going to be inconsistent — but remember how good he was two weeks ago at Minnesota against a stout Vikings defense where he completed an efficient 15 of 22 passes for 196 yards with a touchdown pass and no picks. The Bills should play closer to the one that made the playoffs last season as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Buffalo is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. Returning home will help after playing their last two games on the road — and the Bills have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 69 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Allen should be helped by LeSean McCoy who continues to see his injured ribs improve — he will be running against a mediocre Titans’ run defense that is allowing 118 rushing YPG along with 4.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. This Buffalo defense needs to play closer to the team that stymied the Vikings in Minnesota two weeks ago. The Bills surrendered 423 yards last week to the Packers — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Tennessee risks being overconfident in this game as they are favored for the first time all season. The Titans have pulled off three straight upset victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win as an underdog. Tennessee averaged 6.11 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have fled to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games after averaging at least 8.0 YPP. The Titans struggle to move the ball away from home as they are scoring only 14.5 PPG on the road while averaging 284.5 total YPG. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Titans are an awful 9-26-3 ATS in their last 38 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Look for Tennessee to be flat in this contest after pulling off three straight upsets. The Bills should play much better than their uninspired effort last week. 25* NFL AFC Underdog of the Month with the  Buffalo Bills (458) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.