At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (301) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-3) has lost two straight games after their 37-34 loss in overtime at home to Houston on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. New England (2-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 38-7 blowout win over Miami on Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Rookie head coach Frank Reich made a questionable decision to go for it on 4th down on their side of the field in overtime which they failed to convert. That left just enough time left for Deshaun Watson to complete a pass to give his team the opportunity to kick the game-winning field goal. The Colts may very well wish they had the tie on their final record rather than a loss as the playoff race heats up — especially with more and more of these overtime games ending in ties given the shortening of the extra time to just ten minutes. But Reich’s aggressive decision may have served to galvanize the locker room around him which will pay dividends moving forward. As it is, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games after a straight loss. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 3 points or less. Quarterback Andrew Luck has been outstanding so far this season after missing all of last year with his bevy of injuries. Luck completed 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards with four touchdown passes as he is almost single-handedly carrying this team. The Indianapolis defense did allow 466 total yards to the Texans as they averaged 6.05 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after they allowed at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Moving forward, the Colts have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two straight games. Indy has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games the road — and they are a decisive 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on Thursday Night Football. New England got back to their winnings ways last week — but there are still concerns about this team. The offense lacks credible down-the-field targets — and tight end Rob Gronkowski is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. The offense is averaging only 337.2 total YPG — and the Patriots are being outgained by -10.2 net YPG this season. Despite reaching the Super Bowl last year, New England only outgained their opponents by +28.1 net YPG. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when listed as a favorite laying 7.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are being asked to lay too many points on a short week. The Colts have lost two straight games but they those setbacks were by just seven combined points. Luck should help keep his team competitive and within single digits in this contest. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Indianapolis Colts (301) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-3) has lost two straight games after their 37-34 loss in overtime at home to Houston on Sunday as a 1-point underdog. New England (2-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 38-7 blowout win over Miami on Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots got back to their winning ways by running the football — they ran the ball 40 times of 175 yards led by their rookie running back Sony Michel who contributed 112 yards on 25 carries. This helped New England generate 449 yards of offense overall while having them control the clock for 36:22 minutes of that game. The Patriots have 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last contest. New England has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. This effort should renew some confidence for this team — but after failing to meet point spread expectations, they should appreciate that they still have little margin for error. Running the football to burn time off the clock protects the defense which has been a key part of the Patriots’ success over the years. They are once-again playing “bend but don’t break” defense as they are allowing only 21.0 PPG despite surrendering 348.0 total YPG. Moving forward, New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Patriots have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Tom Brady may not have the services of tight end Rob Gronkowski who is questionable for this game with an ankle injury. While Julian Edelman returns from his four-game suspension, a limited Gronkowski leaves this Pats’ offense without credible down-the-field threats (with the adjective “credible” serving to exclude the recently acquired Josh Gordon). New England has played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of October — and in their last 5 appearances for Thursday Night Football, the game finished Under the Total 4 times. Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of October — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing their previous two games. The Colts have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Andrew Luck offered a rebuttal to those critics that were wondering “what was wrong” with him (after head coach Frank Reich chose to have backup Jacoby Brissett throw a long Hail Mary pass the previous week) by completing 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards with four touchdown passes against the Texans defense. But Luck’s weapons are injured with his favorite tight end Jack Doyle out for this game with a hip injury and his top wide receiving threat in T.Y. Hilton doubtful with a hamstring. Indianapolis has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts defense surrendered a whopping 466 yards to Houston in that overtime loss — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Indy does get running back Robert Turbin back on offense which should help their ground game along with the advance of their goal of burning time off the clock to keep Brady off the field. Lastly, Indianapolis has played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: With the Total set past the 50-point threshold as the oddsmakers adjust for the spike in passing numbers which has led to an increase in scoring, expect this game to finish below that number. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (3-0) remained undefeated last week with their 38-27 win over San Francisco last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-14 loss at Baltimore as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chiefs raced out to a 35-10 lead at halftime last week against the 49ers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 54 games after leading by at least two touchdowns in their last game. The seeds of impending trouble for this team may have sown in the second-half of that contest as they were outscored by the 49ers by a 17-3 margin. Kansas City generated 384 yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Chiefs are struggling to find balance as they are averaging only 103 rushing YPG (just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry) after only managing 77 yards on the ground against San Francisco. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The Chiefs have scored at least 38 points in all three of their games so far this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in each of their last three games. And while Mahomes has passed for 322 and 307 yards in his last two starts, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 300 yards in two straight games. While the Chiefs offense is clicking, the same cannot be said for their defense that ranks third to the bottom in the league in points allowed (30.7 PPG), total defense (474 YPG) and Yards-Per-Play Allowed (6.7 YPP). Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in the first month of the season. This team has had this night circled on their calendar considering that they have lost five straight meetings with the Chiefs while also losing their last three opportunities to host Kansas City in Denver. They also were the first team to get first-hand experience against Watson as he made his first professional start last year on what resulted in a 27-24 win for the Chiefs back on December 31st. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 34 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Kansas City offense is bound to come back to Earth at least somewhat — and the Chiefs defense and offensive line remain concerns. Expect the Broncos to play Kansas City very tough. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Denver Broncos (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (3-0) remained undefeated last week with their 38-27 win over San Francisco last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-14 loss at Baltimore as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Total is in the mid-50s for this game given the dynamic play of quarterback Patrick Mahomes who is leading an offense that is scoring 39.3 PPG. He led the Chiefs to score 42 points in their previous game in Pittsburgh — but Kansas City has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. And while the Chiefs have played all three of their games Over the Total this year, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. KC has generated 449 and 384 yards in each of their last two games — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Chiefs only rushed the ball for 77 yards last week — and they have played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Kansas City surrendered 178 rushing yards to the 49ers — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Chiefs have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning at least three straight games. Denver has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The game plan for Vance Joseph’s team will likely be to run the football to shorten the game and limit the number of offensive possessions that Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense will have in this game. Rookies Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman have combined to rush for 350 yards — and they join Devontae Booker to form a potent committee of running backs to take the pressure off their QB Case Keenum. But this Broncos offense has scored only 34 combined points over their last two games. Denver did limit the Ravens to rush for only 77 yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Broncos return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Denver has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the month of October — and the Broncos have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: As last night’s Baltimore-Pittsburgh showdown demonstrated, it does not take much for what looks like an offensive shootout to slow down enough to finish below a combined points total in the 50s. Denver has to run the football to win the Time of Possession battle — and their zeal to accomplish that task should ensure this game finishing below the Total. 25* NFL AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Denver Broncos (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-1) enters this game coming off a 27-14 win at home hosting Denver last week as a 5.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-1-1) looks to build off their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay on Monday night as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games played on a short week Over the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. The Steelers are second in the NFL by averaging 453.3 YPG. But the Steel Curtain defense has also taken a step (or two) back in the wrong direction since losing Ryan Shazier at linebacker. Since he suffered that spinal injury last year, the Steelers have allowed their last ten opponents to score 28.8 PPG. They allowed 455 yards of offense Monday to the Buccaneers — and they have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 7 points or less. Additionally, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against fellow AFC North opponents. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a win at home. The Ravens lead the NFL by holding their opponents to just 273.0 total YPG — and that may be scaring some bettors to take the Under. Remember that Baltimore has generated those numbers against Buffalo (with Nathan Peterman at QB), Cincinnati and the Broncos last week who are not exactly the reincarnation of the Bill Walsh 49ers’ offenses. But what might be surprising is that this team is fifth in the NFL by scoring 32.3 PPG. Going back to last season, the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in six of their last eight contests. Baltimore is a perfect 12 for 12 in the Red Zone in translating those opportunities into touchdowns. The Ravens go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total while also playing 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a high-scoring game between these two heated rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (275) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (275) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-1) enters this game coming off a 27-14 win at home hosting Denver last week as a 5.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-1-1) looks to build off their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay on Monday night as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: The Steelers struggle with consistency as of late — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up win while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on a short week on a Sunday after playing on Monday Night Football. Their offense is getting a solid contribution from running back James Connor who has been pressed into duty given the holdout of Le’Veon Bell. But Connor has 70 touches already and risks losing steam without much help in the backfield — especially when playing on a short week. The absence of Bell has put more of the burden on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger who passed for 353 yards against the porous Buccaneers defense (that just made Mitchell Trubisky look like a Hall of Famer today). The Steelers are averaging 363 passing YPG in their first three games this season without Bell. But not only has Pittsburgh failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 275 passing YPG in their last three contests. This team has become sloppy under head coach Mike Tomlin as they are the most penalized team in the NFL entering Week Four by a wide margin with the next most penalized team committing nine fewer infractions. The Steel Curtain defense has also taken a step (or two) back in the wrong direction since losing Ryan Shazier at linebacker. Since he suffered that spinal injury last year, the Steelers have allowed their last ten opponents to score 28.8 PPG. Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games. And in their last 4 games against fellow AFC North opponents, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread all 4 times. Baltimore lead the NFL in total defense by limiting their opponents to just 273.0 total YPG. But what might be surprising is that this team is fifth in the NFL by scoring 32.3 PPG. Going back to last season, the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in six of their last eight contests. Baltimore is a perfect 12 for 12 in the Red Zone in translating those opportunities into touchdowns. Quarterback Joe Flacco is having one of his best seasons as he clearly benefited from being healthy for training camp and the preseason. The veteran completed 25 of 40 passes last week for 277 yards — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against fellow AFC North foes. Lastly, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 road games as an underdog getting no more than 3 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have an axe or two to grind with their arch rivals after the Steelers swept both games between these two teams. Baltimore might pull the upset outright — but taking the points will certainly be valuable in what should be a close game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (275) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost in Miami last week by a 28-20 score as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (1-1-1) earned their first victory in two seasons last week with their 21-17 win over the New York Jets as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oakland dominated that game with the Dolphins when looking at the statistics. They outgained Miami by a 434 to 373 yardage edge. They churned out 25 first downs while holding the Dolphins to only 13 first downs. The Raiders also controlled the clock for 38:31 minutes of the game. Those are good fundamentals moving forward which should produce good results — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a game where they controlled Time of Possession for at least 34 minutes while also generating at least 24 first downs. Oakland should respond with a good effort as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread setback. It has been easy to criticize head coach Jon Gruden in his return to coaching as he has made some moves that deserve scrutiny. But the Raiders have also faced a very difficult schedule: the LA Rams, Denver Broncos and them the Dolphins last week have a combined 8-1 record entering Week Four. Furthermore, Oakland has been competitive in all these games as they have enjoyed second-half leads in all these games before suffering from letdowns in the 4th quarter. It was only in 2016 that quarterback Derek Carr tied an NFL record by engineering seven 4th quarter comebacks to win games — so these blown leads are a relatively new phenomenon for this Raiders’ quarterback. Carr is completing 76.6% of his passes so far this season. Cleveland is feeling as good about themselves in years after rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield came off the bench to rally the team from a 14-3 deficit to defeat the Jets on national television on Thursday Night Football. But traveling out west to make his first professional start will be a difficult assignment for Mayfield. The Browns are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games as an underdog. The Browns benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in their win against the Jets who were also relying on a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold. Cleveland has played their last two games Under the Total with the help of their stout defense. But the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Gruden has assembled a group of veterans on his roster who know full well this is a desperate moment for the team. The Raiders have a big edge over the Browns at quarterback in this game — and Cleveland has not felt what it was like to play a game after a victory since when Barack Obama was President. 25* National Football League Game of the Month with the Oakland Raiders (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (262) minus the points versus the New York Jets (261). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 9-6 loss to Tennessee last week as a 10-point favorite. New York (1-2) looks to rebound from a 21-17 loss in Cleveland on Thursday Night Football as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville suffered a big emotional letdown last week after earning a small measure of revenge in their previous game against New England who defeated them in the AFC Championship Game. Quarterback Blake Bortles has improved — but it is evident that when he lowers his intensity, he becomes a below-average quarterback. The Jaguars managed only 232 yards of offense last week with Bortles passing for just 155 yards. Jacksonville should respond from that wake-up call last week. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Jags have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. The team does look to get their star running back Leonard Fournette back for this game which will take some of the pressure off Bortles. This remains a team that is 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense by holding their opponents to just 14.7 PPG. They have allowed only three offensive touchdowns which is the fewest in the NFL. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against fellow AFC opponents. New York had a 14-point lead at halftime against the Browns but a -3 net turnover margin eventually led to their downfall. Now this team stays on the road for the second straight week where they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They are still relying too much on a quarterback in Sam Darnold who is averaging 33 pass attempts per game. The rookie has showed flashes of brilliance but remains inexperienced. The Jets have also been slow starters this year as they have scored only 7 points in their three opening quarters this year — and that is a daunting number when facing this outstanding defense that becomes even more difficult when their opponents are playing from behind. Dealing with the Florida heat will also be an issue for this team that lacks depth. As it is, the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the month of September. And in their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents, New York has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars’ defense always shows up — and that spells trouble for Darnold and this subpar Jets’ offense. But with Fournette returning and Bortles embarrassed from last week’s game, this should be a blowout. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Jacksonville Jaguars (262) minus the points versus the New York Jets (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (258) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (257). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-2) enters this game coming off a 27-6 upset win in Minnesota where they were big 16.5-point underdogs. Green Bay (1-1-1) looks to rebound from their 31-17 upset loss at Washington last Sunday as 2.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bills caught the Vikings napping last week as they might have been looking ahead to their Thursday night showdown with Minnesota. Buffalo played very hard to earn that victory — but it is difficult to maintain that high level of focus and energy for two straight weeks. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after a double-digit victory as a road underdog getting at least 6 points. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a win by at least three touchdowns. Furthermore, while the Bills raced out to that 27-0 halftime lead to shellshocked Minnesota, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. This will be rookie Josh Allen’s first professional start in a hostile environment. He leads an offense that is scoring less than 17 PPG. And while the defense played well last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. Green Bay surrendered 386 yards of offense last week in their loss to the Skins. The Packers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 59 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Aaron Rodgers did participate in more practice this week with his sprained ACL being an injury that will get better over time. He should be better this week — and he has won eleven of his twelve starts at home against AFC opponents unfamiliar with him and Lambeau Field. Rodgers has not thrown an interception this season — and he owns a career 60-15-1 record at Lambeau. While those straight-up numbers do not take into account the point spread, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay should bounce-back with a strong effort with the benefit of home-field advantage again at Lambeau Field. Buffalo will struggle to score enough points to keep up with Rodgers. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (258) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (252) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (251). THE SITUATION: New England (1-2) looks to bounce-back from their 26-10 loss at Detroit as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night. Miami (3-0) remains undefeated last week with their 28-20 win over Oakland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England has endured two straight upset losses — but those games were on the road with some extenuating circumstances. That first loss was in Jacksonville with the Jaguars looking to avenge a playoff loss to New England — and then last week’s game was against a desperate Lions team that was winless and coached by their former defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia. Returning home should help the Patriots right their ship. This team is an incredible 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 games after a straight-up loss and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New England lost that game with the Lions because they were able to successfully play keep-away — the Patriots only had the ball for 20:45 minutes of that game. That explains why New England managed only 209 yards of offense — but they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while New England allowed 414 yards in that contest, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 350 yards. Furthermore, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC East opponents. And in their last 53 games at home, New England is a dominant 35-16-2 ATS. Miami entered this season under-the-radar as they felt they improved the culture of their football team by letting some of their big ego players go elsewhere. The Dolphins defeated the Raiders last week despite being outgained by -61 net yards. The Miami defense surrendered 434 yards in that game including 345 passing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. QB Ryan Tannehill completed 17 of 23 passes for 289 yards in that win but the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back not the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 contests. Furthermore, Miami is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against fellow AFC East opponents. The Dolphins have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight trips to New England.

FINAL TAKE: This is a must-win game for the Patriots who cannot afford to fall three games behind the Dolphins in the AFC East standings. New England will also remember their 27-20 upset loss as a 10-point favorite the last time these two teams played on a Thursday night last December 11th. The home team has covered the point spread in this series in 11 of the last 12 encounters between these two football teams. 25* NFL AFC East Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (252) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (101) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-1-1) looks to bounce-back on a short week after being upset on Sunday at home against Buffalo by a  27-6 score despite being a big 16.5-point favorite in that game. Los Angeles (3-0) remained undefeated last week after winning the “Battle of Los Angeles” with their 35-23 victory over the Chargers at home as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota got caught napping last week as they perhaps began reading their own press clippings a bit too much. They should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 61 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Head coach Mike Zimmer has been vocal about the challenge his team faces about traveling out west on a short week to face a team that got to stay at home after their Week Three game. But this is why the Vikings are getting about a touchdown in this game as an underdog — and Zimmer has studied the best methods to handle this tough part of the schedule with the conclusion that getting his team into Los Angeles on Tuesday put his team in the best position to succeed. I expect Minnesota to play well by embracing this “us against the world” mentality. There are a few things the Vikings will want to do better in this game. First, they need to get off to a better start after trailing Green Bay by a 17-7 score at halftime two weeks ago before going into the locker rooms at halftime last week with a shocking 27-0 deficit to the winless Bills. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after trailing by double digits in each of their last two games. Second, the Vikings need to get more production out of their ground game after rushing the ball only six times last week for a mere 14 yards. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after failing to generate at least 90 rushing yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not even rushing for 30 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Vikings have still covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the month of September despite failing to win games as the favorite in their last two games. Additionally, while the Vikings’ star defensive end Everson Griffen will not be playing in this game as he deals with some significant off-the-field issues, Minnesota is still loaded with talent on their deep defensive line (particular on the ends). Los Angeles generated 521 yards in their victory over the Chargers last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. This Rams team enters Week Four with some difficult injuries to overcome which is a relatively new phenomenon for this franchise that has led the NFL in the previous two seasons with games lost by prospective starters to injury. LA might be without both their new starting cornerbacks duo this season with Aqib Talib going on Injured Reserve with an ankle injury and Marcus Peters questionable with a calf injury. Starting interior linebacker Mark Barron is also listed as questionable with an ankle which might leave their vulnerable linebacking corps even thinner for this game. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games for Thursday Night Football.

FINAl TAKE: The Vikings dominated this matchup last year with their 24-7 win over the Rams back on November 19th. While LA is motivated by revenge, laying up to the touchdown for this game is probably too much to ask against an uber-talented and now angry Minnesota team. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Minnesota Vikings (101) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-1-1) looks to bounce-back on a short week after being upset on Sunday at home against Buffalo by a  27-6 score despite being a big 16.5-point favorite in that game. Los Angeles (3-0) remained undefeated last week after winning the “Battle of Los Angeles” with their 35-23 victory over the Chargers at home as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams defense has been outstanding this season by allowing only 12.0 PPG along with just 296.0 total YPG. Los Angeles is dealing with injuries in their secondary with cornerback Aqib Talib out with an ankle injury and Marcus Peters questionable with a calf issue. But with Aaron Donald and now Ndamukong Suh leading an outstanding defensive line, the Rams defense is not giving opposing quarterbacks much time in the pocket to throw the ball down field. The Rams were 4th in the NFL with 48 sacks last season without Suh — the former Dolphins’ defensive tackle along with Donald accounted for a whopping 68.5 pressures on the quarterback last year. Los Angeles did allow 7.12 Yards-Per-Play to the Chargers in their victory last week — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, the Rams outgained the Chargers by +165 net yards after dominating Arizona the previous week by outgaining them by +295 net yards. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +150 net YPG. Additionally, the Rams have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota (1-1-1) has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Vikings only ran the ball six times in that game for 14 yards with their star running back Dalvin Cook dealing with a hamstring injury that he leaves him questionable for this game being played on a short week. Minnesota is getting solid production from their new quarterback Kirk Cousins who completed 40 of 55 passes for 296 yards in that loss — but Mike Zimmer has to be displeased with his run-to-pass ratio as a defensive-minded head coach. Look for the Vikings to attempt to win this game on the line-of-scrimmage — which will burn time off the clock — as they did last year when the dominated these Rams by a 24-7 score where they only allowed 254 yards of offense. Minnesota is holding their opponents to only 323.0 total YPG - but this number could get even better moving forward when considering that the Vikings led the NFL by holding their opponents to only 275.9 total YPG last year. Zimmer’s teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game when the Vikings passed for at least 250 yards. They also have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Minnesota has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as the underdog. And in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home, the Vikings have played 10 of these games Under the Total. Additionally, while the Vikings’ star defensive end Everson Griffen will not be playing in this game as he deals with some significant off-the-field issues, Minnesota is still loaded with talent on their deep defensive line (particular on the ends).

FINAL TAKE: This game might be a preview of a future showdown between these two teams in the NFC Playoffs (perhaps the NFC Championship Game). On a short week, I think both head coaches will try to impose their will while sending a message about who is the tougher team by winning a game fought in the trench warfare. That style of play should help this game finish lower-scoring than expected. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1-1) is still looking for their first win of the season after losing at home to Kansas City by a 42-37 score despite being 4.5-point favorites in that game last Sunday. Tampa Bay (2-0) looks to continue their success after they upset Philadelphia at home last week by a 27-21 score as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should bounce-back with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after suffering an upset loss. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points inter last game. Pittsburgh did outgain the still-undefeated Chiefs in that game by a 475 to 449 margin. Moving forward, the Steelers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 12 expected close games with the point spread in the +/- 3-point range, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Tampa Bay is getting great production out of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick but their defense remains a grave concern. They allowed Nick Foles to pass for 321 yards en route to the Eagles churning out 412 yards of offense. The Buccaneers are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Injuries are already ravaging this defensive unit with cornerback Vernon Hargreaves on Injured Reserve while rookie defensive tackle Vita Vea is out with a calf injury and cornerback Brent Grimes questionable with a groin. Tampa Bay had to rely on two rookie cornerbacks (M.J. Stewart and Carlton Davis) as their starters last week. They survived Foles and Philadelphia with that game finishing above the 46.5 point total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Fitzpatrick is 0-5 as a starting quarterback when facing this Steelers team. Lastly, the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Fitzpatrick has been great — but his defense has too many injuries right now. Pittsburgh should bounce-back with a strong effort. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Pittsburgh Steelers (489) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1-1) is still looking for their first win of the season after losing at home to Kansas City by a 42-37 score despite being 4.5-point favorites in that game last Sunday. Tampa Bay (2-0) looks to continue their success after they upset Philadelphia at home last week by a 27-21 score as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Steelers are heavily dependent on Big Ben Roethlisberger and their passing game with running back Le’Veon Bell still holding out. More passing generally means more stoppage of play which leads to more plays and possessions on offense with more scoring opportunities for both teams. The opposite dynamic was in play last night with Detroit committed to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep Tom Brady off the field. Pittsburgh will likely prepare to play a high-scoring game tonight. The Steelers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Roethlisberger tossed 60 passes last week — completing 39 of them for 452 yards with three touchdown passes while leading an offense that totaled 475 yards overall. Pittsburgh has played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 22 of their last 34 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. But the Pittsburgh defense surrendered 449 yards to the Chiefs in that loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Pittsburgh really misses their injured linebacker Ryan Shazier. They have allowed 29.0 PPG since his scary neck injury last year after holding their previous seven opponents to only 17.7 PPG in Shazier’s last seven games with the team. Moving forward, the Steelers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing the best football of his career as he has passed for more than 400 yards while tossing four TD passes in each of his first two games. With a questionable running game and two rookie cornerbacks starting in the secondary given injuries to incumbent starters Vernon Hargreaves and Brent Grimes, the Buccaneers formula for success will likely remain to be relying on Fitzpatrick’s arm. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. But defense remains a vulnerability of this team after allowing the Eagles to accumulate 412 yards last week — and they have played 11 go their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 4 of the last 5 games Over the Total in the month of September.

FINAL TAKE: Like last night’s New England-Detroit contest also had a high Total above the 50-point threshold. Handicapping Over/Unders requires an appreciation for the expected tempo of the game in question. While I expected the Lions to fully commit to running the football last night which serves to decrease the number of offensive plays and possessions for both teams, the Steelers and Buccaneers are likely to attempt plenty of passes tonight which has the opposite effect. Expect a shootout between these two teams in a league that is seeing higher scores. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (489) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (490). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (488) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (487). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-20 loss at Jacksonville last Sunday as a 2-point favorite. Detroit (0-2) remained winless so far this season last Sunday when they lost in San Francisco by a 30-27 score as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit has not looked very organized in their first two games under rookie head coach Matt Patricia. Their opening week loss at home to a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold and the New York Jets was a nightmare. The Lions then had a difficult challenge to then head out west to face another team in the 49ers who also lost their opening game. Detroit outgained San Francisco by a 427 to 346 margin but returned home still winless in the Patricia era. Now with rumors of the veteran players rebelling against Patricia’s attempt to impose disciple and an increased work effort, this Lions team looks to be on the brink of a complete meltdown. What’s new in Detroit? But I think this team fits nicely into the ole “wounded animal” theory and I expect them to play their best game of the season with their backs against the wall while rallying around their head coach who has something to prove against his former team with which he won a Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator. QB Matthew Stafford played one of his worst games as a professional in that loss to the Jets on Monday Night Football as he threw five interceptions while too often looking lost in the pocket. But he rebounded nicely last week by completing 34 of his 53 passes for 347 yards while tossing three touchdown passes and no interceptions against the 49ers last week. Detroit has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. All is not lost with this team just yet as they have won nine games in each of their last two seasons. Talent exists on both sides of the football for this team. New England reaches the Super Bowl once again last year but there are certainly cracks in their armor as they only outgained their opponents by +28.1 net YPG. The Jaguars dominated the yardage battle last week by outgaining the Patriots by a 480 to 302 margin. While they faced an outstanding defense last week, this Patriots team is depleted at the wide receiver position — and the recently acquired Josh Gordon is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury after he came over in that trade with Cleveland. It is asking an awful lot of any team to cover the point spread on the road laying almost a touchdown. As it is, New England has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Expect the Lions to be fired-up at home in front of an energetic crowd with the opportunity to immediately right their proverbial ship by pulling the upset against the blue bloods of the NFL in the Patriots. While Detroit may not win the game, they should keep it close. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Detroit Lions (488) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (487) and the Detroit Lions (488). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 31-20 loss at Jacksonville last Sunday as a 2-point favorite. Detroit (0-2) remained winless so far this season last Sunday when they lost in San Francisco by a 30-27 score as a 6-point underdog.

REASON TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: One of the storylines of this game is that rookie head coach Matt Patricia will be facing his former team in the Patriots that he previously served as their defensive coordinator. Patricia certainly knows the New England way as well as Tom Brady and the Patriots’ tendencies — and that will help in scheming again his former team. But Patricia also came to the Lions with a mandate to make this team more physical on both sides of the football — and that starts with running the football. So far in Detroit’s first two games, this mission has been lost. The Lions have only rushed the ball 33 times in two games this season with quarterback Matthew Stafford attempting 52 and 53 passes in their first two games. Well, I think between hell and high water, Patricia is going to commit to his team running the football tonight against his old team — both to finally embrace the blueprint both he and former Patriot brain trust member and now Detroit general manager Bob Quinn both want for this team. Running the football also has the benefit of keeping Brady off the field while also helping his defense by keeping them rested. As it is, the Lions have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after playing two games where they attempted at least 40 passes. All this passing helped the Lions give up 78 points in their first two games — but they have played 3 straight games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests. Furthermore, while Detroit has surrendered 169 and 190 rushing yards in their first two games, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in two straight games. The Lions did generate 427 yards last week against the 49ers — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total adder gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Additionally, Detroit has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. New England is not clicking on all cylinders on offense after managing only 302 yards last week against the Jaguars. While they faced an outstanding defense last week, this Patriots team is depleted at the wide receiver position — and the recently acquired Josh Gordon is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury after he came over in that trade with Cleveland. New England did allow 480 yards last week in that loss but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss while also playing 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And in their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, the Patriots have played 5 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Total opened in the 50 range which was already pretty high — but it has since been bet up to the 55 range in many locations. I consider those additional 5 or so points just added value to a strong Under situation given the zeal the Lions should (finally) show in running the darn football. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (487) and the Detroit Lions (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (484) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (483). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-1) earned their first win of the season on national television on Monday with their 24-17 victory over Seattle as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Arizona (0-2) looks to pick themselves off the mat after they were shutout by a 34-0 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS: Arizona has looked like the worst team in the NFL after getting outscored by an embarrassing 58 to 6 mark in their first two games under first-year head coach Steve Wilkes. Expect the Cardinals to play their best game of the young season this afternoon after these awful efforts. Arizona has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a loss by at least four touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after being shutout. Furthermore, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 43 of their last 65 home games after losing their previous two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Arizona offense was pathetic last week as they managed only 137 yards of offense against the stout Rams defense. But this Cardinals offense is not nearly as bad as those numbers suggest under veteran quarterback Sam Bradford — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. Arizona needs to play better on both sides of the ball after giving up 342 passing yards and 432 yards overall. The Cardinals are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. And in their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points, Arizona has covered the point spread 4 times. Chicago does not deserve to be a road favorite laying close to a touchdown against any of their NFL peers. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as the favorite. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a game at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road. The Bears benefited from a 49-yard interception return for a touchdown that ended up being the winning difference against the Seahawks. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the month of September. And while the Bears defense limited Seattle to just 74 rushing yards in their last game, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona is not as bad as their terrible numbers suggest after facing an underrated Washington team before a juggernaut in the Rams last week. It is hard seeing the Bears beating anyone by almost a touchdown when they are playing on the road. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Arizona Cardinals (484) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (483). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (473). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-2) remained winless in the second incarnation of the Jon Gruden era last week when they lost to the Broncos in Denver by a 20-19 score as a 5.5-point underdog. Miami (2-0) is a surprise undefeated team after their upset the Jets in New York last week by a 20-12 score as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. And while QB Derek Carr passed for 288 yards last week, Oakland is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards. Some stats would suggest that the marriage of Gruden with Carr has worked wonders since Carr is completing a magnificent 85% of his passes this season. Yet those passes have too often been an exercise in dink and dunks as the gunslinger has thrown only one touchdown pass this year. Carr has now lost his last six starts while possessing a meager 6:8 touchdown to interception ratio while leading an offense that is scoring only 14 PPG. The defense has registered only two sacks while allowing their opponents to convert on 45% of their third-down opportunities. The Raiders stay on the road where they have lost seven of their last eight games. Oakland is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road while also going only 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Even more troubling for this team is that while they are outscoring their opponents by a 25-10 margin in the first half this season, they have been outscored by a whopping 43-7 mark in the second half. That points to poor coaching — and it is a terrible omen for a team that has to travel east to play an early 1 PM ET start with their body clocks still thinking it is 10 AM. Miami started fast last week by seizing a 20-0 lead at halftime against the Jets — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. This Miami team entered the season under the radar but I saw potential with a group that head coach Adam Gace felt very good about after the team cleaned house with some of the underachieving egos on the roster. QB Ryan Tannehill has now won nine of this last ten starts as well as going an impressive 17-7 straight-up in his last twenty-four starts. While the Dolphins had only 122 passing yards last week after accounting for sack yardage, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I thought Gruden might see early success before the toll of having so many aging veterans began to expose itself. Instead, things look as bad as the biggest cynics suggested. I hate the travel situation for the Raiders in this game who have relied on fast starts in their first two games — it is typical for west coast teams to start slow when playing out east for the early games. The icing on the cake is that the Dolphins are playing with revenge from a  27-24 loss to Oakland last November. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (462) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (461). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 27-21 upset loss in Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite last week. Indianapolis (1-1) enters this game coming off a 21-9 upset victory in Washington as a 6-point underdog against the Skins.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss . The big news for this game is that Carson Wentz will return to the field and start this game at quarterback. The offense was not bad last week under Nick Foles who completed 35 of 48 passes for 334 yards while leading the unit to generate 412 total yards. But Wentz is a different breed — and even if he is not 100% from his torn ACL from last year, he is a big upgrade as an offensive weapon. His 33 touchdown passes led the NFL at the time of his Week 13 injury last year. As it is, Philly has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Eagles defense allowed 436 yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Philadelphia is missing some weapons at wide receiver and running back — but they are close to full strength on their offensive and defensive lines that I consider the best units in football. That should make the difference in this game. Indianapolis is a M*A*S*H unit already this year. They entered the season with a whopping twelve players on Injured Reserve which is devastating for a franchise that already had significant talent and depth issues. It has since only gotten worse with the following notable starters out for this game: left tackle Anthony Castanzo, tight end Jack Doyle, running back Marlon Mack, cornerback Quincy Wilson, defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway. This is terrible news for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The Colts have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Too many injuries for this Indianapolis team now traveling to face an angry Philly team who proved last year that their depth on the roster was one of the strengths that helped them win the Super Bowl. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Philadelphia Eagles (462) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (479) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (480). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-0) returns home for their first game of the season at the new Arrowhead Stadium after their 42-37 upset win at Pittsburgh. San Francisco (1-1) looks to build off their 30-27 win over the Lions at home last week as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: I would not respect myself if I did not puts some chips in to invest against the Chiefs with a contrarian play given all the love this team is getting from bettors. Kansas City’s perceived value will never be higher than it is right now after pulling off two straight upset victories on the road with Patrick Mahomes wowing on-lookers (and genius fantasy football enthusiasts) with his video game numbers so far. There will be a learning curve for Mahomes as opposing defensive coaches staffs gather tape on the new offense head coach Andy Reid has designed for his new quarterback. The Chiefs topped their 362 yards of offense in Week One against the Chargers by compiling 475 yards against a perhaps overrated Steelers defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. KC has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 35 points in two straight games. Furthermore, what has been lost in the rush to put Mahomes into the Hall of Fame is that the Chiefs abysmal play on defense as they are allowing 32.5 PPG and 508.0 total YPG. Kansas City has surrendered more than 400 passing yards in each of their first two contests which should raise red flags for a defense that severely misses Eric Berry in their defensive backfield. San Francisco probably entered this season overrated after winning their last five games. QB Jimmy Garoppolo perhaps was a harbinger for what Mahomes will soon experience as his incredible numbers have come back down to earth as defenses adapt. But this 49ers team is certainly good enough to stay within a touchdown’s length of most teams even when playing on the road. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a narrow win by 3 points or less.

FINAL TAKE: I often tease (sometimes mock) the overblown chatter about sharp and square plays — so-called sharp bettors lose all the time while public “square” bets certainly win enough to keep those bettors engaged. But we want to be invested in conventional “sharp” bets like this with the overwhelming majority of the money going on the Chiefs. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (479) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (476) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (475). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a sluggish 21-9 upset loss at home last week to Indianapolis as a 6-point favorite. Green Bay (1-0-1) kissed their sister last week but probably feel pretty good about their 29-29 tie with Minnesota considering that they were 2-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington should respond with a strong effort in this game as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Skins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home while they have also covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a double-digit upset loss as a home favorite laying at least 6 points in that game. Washington was feeling pretty good about themselves after a dominating opening win on the road at Arizona by a 24-6 score. Head coach Jay Gruden has an under-appreciated defense that is poaching Alabama defensive talent. Defensive end Jonathan Allen was off to a great start last year before his rookie season was cut short after five games with a foot injury. He reunited this year with nose tackle Da’Ron Payne whom the Skins drafted with their first-round pick this offseason. With cornerback Josh Norman leading the way, Washington was 9th in the NFL in pass defense. They collapsed to finishing last in the league in run defense but they were much better in those first five games with Allen in the mix. This season, the Skins are second in the NFL by allowing only 13.5 PPG while leading the league by giving up only 247.0 total YPG. They should play better on offense this afternoon behind QB Alex Smith as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. This will be the Packers first game away from Lambeau Field this season. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when laying no more than a field goal. Green Bay pulled out the tie with the Vikings last week after getting outgained by 129 net yards last week. They survived that game due to a touchdown they scored after blocking a punt in the end zone. This team could easily be winless entering this game if what was not for the miracle comeback from Aaron Rodgers on Sunday Night Football in the opening week of the season. But Rodgers is still gimpy and only one bad hit away from the Pack relying on the disastrous DeShone Kizer under center. As it is, Rodgers is not the same quarterback away from Green Bay as he holds only a 43-42 career record on the road while losing ten of his last seventeen starts on the road. Furthermore, I think the Packers are at a disadvantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage in this game against the Skins. Green Bay is averaging only 83 rushing YPG while giving up 103 rushing YPG. Lastly, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The opportunity to take Washington as a home dog in this spot is a great situation for us. Let’s attack. 25* NFL NFC Underdog of the Month with the Washington Redskins (476) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (467) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (468). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to build off their narrow 21-18 win over Cleveland last Sunday. Atlanta (1-1) also earned their first win of the season last Sunday with their 31-24 win over Carolina.

THE SITUATION: The Falcons are simply ravaged with injuries right now. The defense took two devastating losses in their opening game of the season against the Eagles when safety Keanu Neal and Deion Jones both suffered what are likely season-ending injuries. Those two players might very well be the best two players that head coach Dan Quinn has on that side of the ball. To make matters worse when facing Drew Brees and company, Atlanta will be without last year’s first-round draft pick in Takkarist McKinley after the defensive end was downgraded to being out with a groin injury. The Falcons surrendered 318 passing yards last week to the Panthers that does not have the weapons that the Saints enjoy — and Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. On offense, the Falcons are also without their top running back DeVonta Freeman who is dealing with an ankle injury — his absence will not make things easier for this team in the Red Zone. Of course, Atlanta still has wide receiver Julio Jones — but he has only one touchdown catch in his last nine games. Jones has not saved his prolific games for the Saints either as he has only one touchdown catch in his last eight games against New Orleans. These are all bad signs for a Falcons team that tends to suffer letdowns. Not only has Atlanta failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win but they have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after a win at home against an NFC South rival. Even worse, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 29 home games after a win at home. New Orleans has yet to cover a point spread this season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to cover point spread expectations in each of their last two games. Both of the Saints’ first two games have finished Under the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after playing two straight Unders. Furthermore, New Orleans has lost the turnover battle in each of their first two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after suffering at least a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. Brees owns a 16-9 career record against Atlanta and should be prepared to outgun Matt Ryan in this one. Fading the Saints away from the Superdome had a brief period of success — but it is a sucker’s bet these days (if that is one’s only reason). New Orleans has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two teams. I just hate the injuries that Atlanta has endured so far this season — their losses on defense will be too much to overcome when facing Brees while being undermanned on offense without Freeman and still working out their Red Zone issues with offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. 25* NFL NFC South Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (467) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (302) minus the points versus the New York Jets (301). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 20-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (0-1-1) also looks to rebound from a 21-18 loss in New Orleans as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a very tough challenge for the Sam Darnold with this game being played on a short week against a Gregg Williams-coached defense that will show him plenty of exotic looks. To compound matter, this is the rookie’s third game in just eleven days which is a very difficult way to start an NFL career. Darnold did complete 25 of 41 passes for 334 yards but don’t be surprised if Darnold looks overwhelmed at times in this game. As it is, the Jets are just 1-4-1 in the Jets’ last 6 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards in their last game. And while Darnold has led the offense to average 6.12 and 6.03 Yards-Per-Play in their first two games this season, New York has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in each of their last two games. Now the Jets go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as an underdog. And in their last 13 games played on grass, New York is just 3-9-1 in those contests. Cleveland should respond with a strong effort tonight as they continue to play with a chip on their shoulder looking for their first victory since December 24, 2016. Don’t blame the Browns for that loss in the Big Easy as they held the potent Saints’ offense to just 275 yards of offense. This is a unit that is emerging into one of the better units in the league. Led by second-year defensive end Myles Garrett, Cleveland has already registered 7 sacks this year which is 5th best in the NFL. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games after a loss on the road by no more than a field goal. The Browns have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: After playing two playoff teams to tough games with their tie against the Steelers in Week One before their 3-point loss in the Superdome to the New Orleans last week, look for an energized crowd to help the Browns to victory tonight. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (302) minus the points versus the New York Jets (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 20-12 upset loss at home to Miami last week as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (0-1-1) also looks to rebound from a 21-18 loss in New Orleans as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets fell behind early in their game with the Dolphins as they went into halftime with a 20-0 deficit. Quarterback Sam Darnold did complete 25 of 41 passes for 334 yards — but he also tossed two interceptions. This is a very tough challenge for the rookie since not only is this game being played on a short week against a Gregg Williams-coached defense that will show him plenty of exotic looks but this is his third game in just eleven days which is a very difficult way to start an NFL career. Don’t be surprised if Darnold looks overwhelmed at times in this game. As it is, the Jets have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite against an AFC East rival. New York has also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Jets go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. Cleveland has played 21 of their last 29 home games Under the Total after a loss by less than 6 points. Don’t blame the Browns for that loss in the Big Easy as they held the potent Saints’ offense to just 275 yards of offense. This is a unit that is emerging into one of the better units in the league. Led by second-year defensive end Myles Garrett, Cleveland has already registered 7 sacks this year which is 5th best in the NFL. Darnold did experience trouble with pressure last week against the Dolphins defensive line — so this is a significant area of concern. But the Browns are struggling on the offensive side of the football where their QB Tyrod Taylor has been sacked 10 times. Cleveland has only scored 6 first-half points in their first two games this season which is not a good sign as to how they will start in this game when playing on a short week. The Browns have played 29 of their last 44 home games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half in each of their last two games. They will be facing an underrated Jets’ defense that has held their first two opponents to just 3.38 Yards-Per-Carry. Moving forward, Cleveland has played 11 of their last 14 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 29 of their last 39 home games Under the Total when favored by 3 points or less. The Browns have also played 6 of their last 7 games on Thursday Night Football Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: While the Total is set around the 40 point range, expect points to be hard to come by from both these teams with strong defenses but limited offenses. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (289) and the Chicago Bears (290). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-24 loss at Denver last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Chicago (0-1) also looks rebound from a narrow loss after they lost in Green Bay last Sunday night by a 27-24 score as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Seattle did average 6.24 Yards-Per-Play in that loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, the Seahawks have played 30 of their last 45 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 47 point range. And in their last 110 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Seattle has play 70 of these games Over the Total. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a narrow loss by 7 points or less against a divisional rival — and they have also played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a point spread cover on the road where they lost the game straight-up as an underdog. Additionally, the Bears have played 26 of their last 39 games at home Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less.

FINAL TAKE: With the Total lower than its 43.5 point start, expect this game to find its way to finish above the number. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (289) and the Chicago Bears (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (289) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (290). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-24 loss at Denver last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Chicago (0-1) also looks rebound from a narrow loss after they lost in Green Bay last Sunday night by a 27-24 score as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle should play well tonight as they are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up loss. And while they come off a scoring fest last week against the Broncos, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total while also covering the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Many bettors are down on this Seahawks team after their disappointing 2017-18 season which saw them move on from a number of veterans in the offseason. But head coach Pete Carroll has created a younger roster this year — and he has a proven track record of getting the most of a group of youthful players. Seattle is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Seahawks are also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Chicago played great in the first-half last week as they raced out to a 17-0 lead going into halftime at Lambeau Field — but they were outscored by a dominant 24-7 margin in the second-half. The Bears held the Packers to just 69 rushing yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight gams after allowing no more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. An injured Aaron Rodgers did torch the Chicago secondary for 301 yards — and they are a rough 17-39-1 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Bears did manage only 294 yards on offense with their offense slowing down considerably after running through their set of scripted plays from rookie head coach Matt Nagy to quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Moving forward, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played in the second week of the season. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 8 games against fellow NFC opponents, Chicago is 2-5-1 ATS.

FINAL TAKE: Many bettors will remember how good the Bears looked in the first-half of their prime time game against Green Bay which is why the original -2.5 points they were laying have been bet up to more than 4 points in many spots. The Seahawks are a bit underrated right now — making these points very valuable. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Seattle Seahawks (289) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (288) minus the points versus the New York Giants (287). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 20-15 loss a home to Jacksonville last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 16-8 loss at Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas has stepped up to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second week of the NFL season. Their defense played quite well by holding the Panthers to just 16 points at home — this Cowboys defense should continue to play well given their balance after finishing last year 8th in the NFL in run defense and 11th in pass defense. Look for the Dallas offense to play better back at home. Remember that the Cowboys had won eighteen of their last twenty-four games before the Ezekiel Elliott four-game suspension last season. This team was also hit hard by two tough injuries to left tackle Tyron Smith and linebacker Sean Lee. Dallas is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow teams from the NFC East. New York (0-1) has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents. The problems for this team last week as they managed to generate only 324 yards of offense. The Giants ranked 31st in the NFL last year by scoring only 15.4 PPG — and their 15 points last week included a defensive 32-yard interception returned for a touchdown. New York has failed to cover the point spread in has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in Week 2 of the new season. Moving forward, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting 7 or less points. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas should flex their muscles with the benefit of home field advantage — and they swept the Giants in their two games last year. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (288) minus the points versus the New York Giants (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (287) and the Dallas Cowboys (288). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 20-15 loss a home to Jacksonville last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 16-8 loss at Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the defense for the Giants loss as they held the Jaguars to just 305 yards of offense. The hope with this football team that new defensive coordinator James Bettcher can find the magic for this defense that triggered them being 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 PPG while also ranking tied for 3rd in the league in run defense. Injuries took away cornerback Janoris Jenkins along with linebacker B.J. Goodson while the team feels they have upgraded at linebacker with the trade for Alec Ogletree from the Rams. But the problems for this team last week as they managed to generate only 324 yards of offense. The Giants ranked 31st in the NFL last year by scoring only 15.4 PPG — and their 15 points last week included a defensive 32-yard interception returned for a touchdown. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. The Giants have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC East foes. It was a similar story for the Cowboys as their defense played quite well by holding the Panthers to just 16 points at home — but they managed only 232 yards of offense with a wide receiver group that lacks a clear number one (or number two) option. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. But this Cowboys defense should continue to play well given their balance after finishing last year 8th in the NFL in run defense and 11th in pass defense. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after both a straight-up loss and a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Cowboys have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on their home field.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played four of their last five games Under the Total. Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams. 25* NFL NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (287) and the Dallas Cowboys (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (277) and the New Orleans Saints (278). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-0-1) ensured they will not suffer another season where they lose all their games as they managed a 21-21 tie with the Steelers last Sunday. New Orleans (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 48-40 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay despite being 10-point favorites in that contest.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Browns have a promising young defense but the Steelers generated 472 yards against them even in difficult wind conditions last Sunday. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The Browns have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total in the month of September. Cleveland goes on the road now where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total when the number is set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Browns have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home — and they have play 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. New Orleans’ surrendered 529 yards to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers’ offense last week. The Saints did keep up by gaining 475 yards in that contest — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, New Orleans has played 7 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Saints stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total. And in their last 5 games in the month of September, New Orleans has played all 5 games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Both these defenses look overrated last week compared to their preseason projections. The Saints face a must-win situation pretty much given the dire prospects of starting the year 0-2 at home in Superdome — while Cleveland remains desperate to earn their first win three seasons. This conflicting dynamic should produce a higher scoring game. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (277) and the New Orleans Saints (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-0) opened their season in glowing fashion by crushing Buffalo by a 47-3 score last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (1-0) also enters this divisional game with a victory as they defeated the Colts in Indianapolis by a 34-23 score as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Ravens were perhaps the most impressive looking team in the opening week of the season (and we were on them) — but they look likely to suffer a bit of a letdown now. Baltimore is 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Ravens held the Bills to just 153 yards of offense which allowed them to outgain them by +116 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Baltimore is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to allow more than 14 points in their last contest. Now the Ravens travel to Cincinnati on a short week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on field turf. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Cincy defense did allow 380 yards in that contest, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals under head coach Marvin Lewis typically overachieve relative to point spread expectations as they are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games in the month of September. And in Cincinnati’s last 5 games against AFC North foes, the Bengals have covered the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore will certainly be feisty in this game after seeing their playoff aspirations destroyed last year with their 31-27 upset loss at home to the Bengals in the final week of the regular season. But Lewis can call on his team being shutout at home by a 20-0 score to these Ravens in the first meeting between these two teams back on September 10th. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 trips to Cincinnati. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (1-0) opened their season in glowing fashion by crushing Buffalo by a 47-3 score last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (1-0) also enters this divisional game with a victory as they defeated the Colts in Indianapolis by a 34-23 score as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens flexed their muscles on defense in that game as they held the Bills to just 153 yards of offense. This is an outstanding Ravens’ defense that was 6th in the NFL last year by limiting their opponents to just 18.9 PPG along with three shutouts they also almost added to in that game. Baltimore limited the Bills to just 2.78 Yards-Per-Play in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to less than 3.0 YPP. The Ravens controlled the time of possession in that game while looking to win the battle at the line of scrimmage as they held the ball for 35:14 minutes of that game. Baltimore only managed 369 yards of offense for all that possession time — including 252 yards in the air. The Under is then 34-15-2 in the Ravens’ last 51 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Furthermore, Baltimore has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. Cincinnati has played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Bengals have also seen the Under go 34-16-2 in their last 52 games after scoring at least 30 points. The defense did give up 380 yards to the Colts in that game — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Most of those yards were from QB Andrew Luck who returned to NFL action by 305 yards. But the Bengals allowed only 75 rushing yards — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing at home — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 4 games played on Thursday Night Football, the Bengals have played all 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: It might be tempting to take the Over in this game with both offenses scoring a combined 81 points last week. These two teams also last played in Week 17 which was a scoring fest that the Bengals won by a 31-27 score. But that was the first Over between these two teams in their last five encounters. Look for both coaches to try to out-physical the other by controlling clock and win the battle at the line of scrimmage. 25* NFL AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (101) and the Cincinnati Bengals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) officially begins the Sam Darnold era tonight as they hope to improve on their 5-11 season last year. Detroit (0-0) missed the playoffs last year after their second straight 9-7 campaign.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles averaged 33 PPG when playing on the road last year — and their offense added a big weapon in Brandin Cooks in the offseason. The Rams have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 18 of their last 24 road games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. Los Angeles has also played 4 straight games Over the Total in the month of September — and they have played 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Over the Total. Additionally, the Over is 7-3-1 in Los Angeles’ last 11 games on Monday Night Football. Oakland should improve on offense after scoring just 18.8 PPG. While that scoring mark ranked 23rd in the league, the Raiders were a bit better in total yardage by tying for 17th by averaging 324.1 total YPG. That disparity speaks to Red Zone problems where I place much of the blame on former offensive coordinator Todd Downing. Derek Carr led an offense that scoring 26.0 PPG while averaging 373.3 total YPG in 2016 which ranked 7th and 6th in the NFL respectively and I expect the team to approach those numbers once again this season under Gruden’s offensive mind. This Oakland team is going to have to outscore their opponents given their mediocre defense that let Khalil Mack go. Even with Mack, the Raiders ranked 20th in the NFL by allowing 23.3 PPG while also ranking 23rd in the league by giving up 350.1 total YPG. Oakland has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the month of September. The Raiders have also played 9 of their last 15 games at home — and Gruden’s teams have played 13 of their last 18 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in Oakland’s last 7 games played on Monday Night Football, the Raiders have played 5 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a high-scoring game between these two teams with the Raiders already acknowledging that they will have to win a shootout to pull the upset in this game. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (481) and the Oakland Raiders (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (481). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) is one of the top favorites to reach the Super Bowl this season after their 11-5 campaign last year. Oakland (0-0) looks to recapture past glory by bringing back head coach Jon Gruden after their disappointing 6-10 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: I will admit that I am skeptical of some of the moves that Gruden has made since returning to Oakland. Letting Khalil Mack go is not one of them. While the linebacker is one of the best defensive players in the league, the Raiders simply cannot afford him. It is just that simple. Perhaps Oakland can entertain the debate once they move to Las Vegas the wisdom of spending 40% of their salary cap on just two players. The Lions tried that out with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh (OK, that is three players) — and we know how that plan worked out. In the meantime, before the Raiders move to Vegas where the purse strings will be loosened, Gruden’s plan is to lean heavily on veterans who can execute his sophisticated game plans in a new league where practice times are limited during the season. I do expect the Raiders’ offense to come out with plenty of new wrinkles that Gruden has been accumulating in the nine years since he left Tampa Bay for the Monday Night Football television booth. He does have the quarterback who can execute these schemes in Derek Carr. While Oakland was probably not as good as their 12-4 record back in 2016, they are better than what their 6-10 mark last year suggests. Frankly, just the move of removing last year’s offensive coordinator Todd Browning will represent an upgrade for this team. They should play well out of the gate for Gruden as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of September including covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season. The Raiders are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 7 point range. Los Angeles has added the aforementioned Suh along with cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib amongst a handful of splashy free agent acquisitions. I remain skeptical that the sum of these parts will be as good as advertised as this is now a roster with plenty of big personalities — and the formula of buying a Super Bowl has a bad track record in the NFL. This Rams team was exposed in the playoffs when they were upset by Atlanta by a 26-13 score despite playing that game at home. Los Angeles may start this season slow under the weight of Super Bowl expectations as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 opening games to a new season. And while the Rams were 7-1 on the road last year, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games in the opening two weeks of the season. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams roster is loaded but expecting them to cover a point spread more than a field goal against a quality opponent is simply too much to ask. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders pull the upset in Gruden’s official return to Oakland — but definitely grab the valuable points in this game for some insurance. 25* NFL Bailout Game of the Year with the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) officially begins the Sam Darnold era tonight as they hope to improve on their 5-11 season last year. Detroit (0-0) missed the playoffs last year after their second straight 9-7 campaign.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Darnold demonstrated that he might be the most advanced of all the incoming rookie quarterbacks in the preseason — but he has still yet to encounter sophisticated defenses with defensive coordinators sticking to vanilla schemes in exhibition games. Rookie head coach Matt Patricia will surely make sure that the Lions’ defense will employ some of the same sophisticated defensive concepts that he used as the defensive coordinator for the New England Patriots. Darnold had turnover issues in college at USC — he threw 13 interceptions in his last fourteen starts. Playing in a hostile environment will also represent a new challenge for Darnold. As it is, the Jets are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Jets were only 1-7 straight up on the road last year with four of those losses being against teams with a losing record.  New York was the fifth most penalized team in the league last year which did no favors for their defense which was 25th in the NFL by allowing 352.3 total YPG. The Jets also are likely to start this season slow considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. Detroit has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. The ten-year veteran thrives when playing at home at Ford Field where he has an outstanding 60:19 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 7.78 Yards-Per-Attempt with his passing game over the last two seasons as compared to his more modest 47:26 ratio along with a 6.94 YPA when playing on the road. The Lions were hit hard by injuries particularly on their offensive line as they had twelve different starting lineups on their line while trying twenty-one difference combinations last season. That group begins this season healthy while significantly upgrading their rushing attack by drafting Kerryon Johnson from Auburn while signing LeGarrette Blount from the Eagles. Patricia wants to run the ball more to keep his defense off the field. He inherits a defense that was second in the NFL by forcing turnovers in 16.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Lions have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit did not look very good in the preseason but Patricia did not reveal much of his new plans for the team. A healthy Lions team that runs the ball more should help Stafford be even more effective — and he has developed into one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league as it is. Detroit should overwhelm a Jets team that has not done much to upgrade their roster outside of placing their future in the hands of Darnold. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (477) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (478). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) begins play under their new head coach Matt Nagy after John Fox was let go after their 5-11 campaign last season. Green Bay (0-0) is happy to get Aaron Rodgers back after he missed seven games last year with a broken collarbone in what ended up being a 7-9 season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: It might look easy to take the Packers with Rodgers healthy again given the quarterback’s 16-4 record in his last twenty starts against Chicago. And without counting the two games that he has had to exit with his two broken collarbone injuries, Green Bay is 94-46 straight-up in Rodgers’ last one-hundred and forty starts. But winning this game at home in Lambeau Field is one thing — and defeating a highly-motivated divisional rival by at least a touchdown is another. There are signs of decline in Rodgers game as his 5.5 yards per completion rate last year was the third lowest amongst NFL starters last year. That decline continues a disturbing trend that has seen Rodgers’ Yards-Per-Attempt average drops to a 6.91 mark over his last three seasons which is not only below the higher numbers earlier in his career but it is also a bit below the 7.24 YPA NFL average. A below-average rushing attack has been one of the culprits as it has decreased the effectiveness of their play-action passing attack. Green Bay averaged just 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in Play-Action passes — and they are averaging only 6.4 YPA for these plays since 2015 which is also far below the 10.8 YPA average Rodgers enjoyed at the peak of his tenure with the Packers. Second-year running back Aaron Jones is out for this game with a two-game suspension which leaves the rushing duties primarily to former BYU tailback Jamaal Williams who averaged just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry in his rookie year. To compound matters, Rodgers’ wide receiving crew may be the weakest he has had in Green Bay yet it is the offensive line that is probably still the weak link with the unit. The Packers’ defense was last in the NFL last year by allowing 2.2 Points Per Drive which makes the 24.0 PPG (26th in the NFL) they allowed look even worse. While the Packers won only seven games last year, they also enjoyed three net close wins decided by one scoring possession. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home in Lambeau Field. Chicago’s record suffered from three net losses in games decided by 8 points or less. Injuries have riddled this team over the years: they have lost 366 (adjusted) combined games to likely starters who were out because of injuries going back to 2015 which is not only the worst mark in the NFL during the span but well above the 214.4 averaged adjusted number games impacted by injury. This is a healthy Bears team tonight with none of their projected starters dealing with any issues. The Bears’ offense averaged only 16.5 PPG last year but I am expecting significant improvement from this unit this season. Nagy was brought in to play the role of Sean McVay who helped quarterback Jared Goff blossom in his second year. Mitchell Trubisky showed glimpses of his enormous potential last year but was often held back by the conservative play-calling of the offense. Trubisky also lacked weapons at wide receiver — and this was addressed in the offseason with Chicago signing Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton in the offseason. Those targets will help open things up for running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Nagy and his offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich revealed very little of their plans for their new offseason with plenty of Run-Pass-Options expected — so Green Bay’s defense may be caught by a few surprises tonight. The defense was a top-ten unit last year in both points allowed (20.0 PPG) and yards allowed (319.1 YPG) — and they have added Kahlil Mack to provide the pressure from the edge this unit has lacked. Mack has only been with the team seven days but he should certainly be on the field for all the passing downs. The Packers tend to play closer than expected games against familiar foes as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC North rivals.

FIANL TAKE: Chicago lost both games to the Packers last year by 21 points at Lambeau and then by 7 points at home at Soldier Field. While expecting them to pull the upset may be too much to ask, I do expect a feisty battle from them — with a healthy roster — against a foe they are very familiar with. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (477) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (477) and the Green Bay Packers (478). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-0) begins play under their new head coach Matt Nagy after John Fox was let go after their 5-11 campaign last season. Green Bay (0-0) is happy to get Aaron Rodgers back after he missed seven games last year with a broken collarbone in what ended up being a 7-9 season.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers’ offense stalled without Rodgers last year as they averaged only 20.0 PPG last year while generating a mere 305.7 total YPG with those marks ranking 21st and 26th in the league. With Rodgers back under center, both of those marks should significantly amp up — especially at home. Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games at Lambeau Field with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Rodgers no longer has Jordy Nelson as a weapon but the veteran has lost a step — he was essentially replaced by a big target in tight end Jimmy Graham who caught 10 TD passes last year. It has been a number of years since Rodgers has had a prolific pass-receiving tight end in his arsenal. But perhaps the biggest upgrade this team has made on offense was the return of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. The former Miami Dolphins head coach was the offensive coordinator for the Packers from 2007-2011 when Rodgers was enjoying some of his best statistical seasons. Remember that Rodgers has enjoyed an incredible 40-to-8 touchdown to interception ratio over his last sixteen starts — and he loves facing Vic Fangio-coached defenses against which he has an 11-1 TD-to-Interception ratio in his last five games against the Bears with Fangio as their defensive coordinator. Rodgers will battle a Bears’ defense that was a Top-Ten unit last year that has just added linebacker Kahlil Mack into the mix. With Mack just joining the team, it is unclear how many snaps he will play in this game. The Chicago defense is good — but their stats were padded by an offense that was designed to burn time off the clock to keep them off the field. The Bears averaged 29.2 seconds per play which is the second longest in the league. Chicago had no Pro Bowlers on their defense last year. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total against familiar conference opponents. Additionally, the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the month of September — and this includes them playing 6 of their last 7 opening games to a new season Over the Total. The Bears’ offense averaged only 16.5 PPG last year but I am expecting significant improvement from this unit this season. Nagy was brought in to play the role of Sean McVay who helped quarterback Jared Goff blossom in his second year. Mitchell Trubisky showed glimpses of his enormous potential last year but was often held back by the conservative play-calling of the offense. Trubisky also lacked weapons at wide receiver — and this was addressed in the offseason with Chicago signing Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton in the offseason. Those targets will help open things up for running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Nagy and his offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich revealed very little of their plans for their new offseason with plenty of Run-Pass-Options expected — so Green Bay’s defense may be caught by a few surprises tonight. Trubisky saw only 39 snaps in the preseason. And don’t be surprised if the Bears significantly amp up their pace of play on offense given Helfrich’s background as a Chip Kelly protege at Oregon.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 meetings Over the Total. Expect a higher-scoring game between two teams that will be experiencing big improvements with their respective offenses. Expect this to be a sloppy game which will likely result in triggering more scoring opportunities. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (477) and the Green Bay Packers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (470) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (469). Kansas City (0-0) begins the Patrick Mahomes era at quarterback this afternoon after they made a change at quarterback after another early exit in the playoffs after a 10-6 regular season campaign. Los Angeles (0-0) hopes to get off to a faster start this year after they finished 9-7 last year after enduring a horrendous start to the 2017 season under new head coach Anthony Lynn.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Chargers closed out last year winning nine of their last twelve games as well as six of their last seven games so there is plenty of optimism inside this franchise. This opening game was certainly circled not only because of the imperative to get off to a better start but also because Los Angeles was swept by the Chiefs last year. The Chargers lost in Kansas City by a 24-10 score on September 24th before then losing by a 30-13 score at home on December 16th despite being a 1-point favorite. Despite that loss, Los Angeles outscored their visitors by +9.9 PPG at home (despite playing in that soccer stadium without rabid fan support). The Chargers clearly feel more comfortable playing in StubHub Stadium as they outgained by their opponents by +75.0 net YPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games. The Chargers are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 opening games to a new season. Kansas City decided to move on from Alex Smith at quarterback after they became enthralled with the passing potential of their second-year QB Patrick Mahomes. But the most under-appreciated aspect of “check-down Charlie” was that Smith did a great job in protecting the football. Smith threw only 5 interceptions last year. Head coach Andy Reid may be humming some Cinderella “Don’t Know What You Got (Till It’s Gone)” as Mahomes’ potent arm also risks many more turnovers — especially when playing in a hostile environment. Remember that Mahomes played in only one game last year — and this will be his first professional start. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The bigger problem for this team is their defense that will have seven new starters on the field this afternoon. The team will be without their leader in safety Eric Berry who is out with a sore heel. Berry was injured for last year which contributed to the KC defense ranking 29th against the pass and 25th against the run. When the Chiefs went on the road last year, they allowed their home hosts to generate 389.9 total YPG. Mahomes will have to outduel Philip Rivers in this one — and the veteran QB was outstanding last year by passing for more than 4500 yards to rank second in the NFL while tossing 28 touchdown passes. 

FINAL TAKE: With Mahomes making his first professional start on the road and the Chargers very motivated after suffering not only two losses to the Chiefs last year but eight straight losses to their AFC West rivals with their last victory being way back on December 29th, 2013. What all those losses to Kansas City have in common was Alex Smith under center delivering the daggers to their defense. Smith is now in Washington which gives LA a clean slate to exact a small measure of revenge. 25* NFL AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (470) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (456) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (455). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) takes the field again after they lost in Philadelphia to the Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship Game. San Francisco (0-0) has renewed optimism after winning their final five games to finish 6-10 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Vikings were very tough when playing at home in the Metrodome last year. Minnesota was 7-1 at home last season with an average winning margin of +11.4 PPG. While the offense scored a healthy 25.2 PPG, the defense was absolutely nasty when playing at home as they held their guests to just 13.8 PPG while limiting them to only 260.7 total YPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when laying 7 points or less. The offense should be better this season. The team has upgraded at quarterback by dumping all their QBs from last year and getting out their paycheck to sign Kirk Cousins from Washington. While Case Keenum was a pleasant surprise last year, Cousins is a more dangerous passer with a host of intriguing weapons at his disposal. And don’t forget the team gets back their spark-plug in Dalvin Cook who is tearing up the league before he suffered his season-ending injury. The Vikings usually start strong as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of September. San Francisco is very excited about continuing the Jimmy Garappolo era after he won all five of his starts last season. But the former Patriot is likely to see the Regression Gods make an appearance with his gaudy numbers from last year — and his subpar 7-to-5 touchdown to interception ratio from last season looms as a red flag. Garappolo still lacks a tall target from his cadre of receivers for Red Zone action — and the team received terrible news when their big offseason signing of running back Jerick McKinnon from these Vikings when he tore his ACL to end his season. The 49ers starting running back this afternoon will be journeyman Alfred Morris which is a bad sign when facing this stout Vikings defense. The San Fran defense remains a work in progress this year with pass rush being perhaps the biggest concern. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the first-half of the season. The 49ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on field turf. And in their last 9 games as an underdog in the +3.5 to +9.5 point range, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers are a trendy sleeper team to make a playoff run in the NFC — but they will likely have a rude awakening traveling east to play in Minnesota for this early game. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (456) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (460) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (459). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (0-0) enters this season with a sense of urgency after missing the playoffs despite a 9-7 season. Buffalo (0-0) seized the Ravens’ final slot in the AFC playoffs in the final week of the season when they ended the year with a 9-7 mark and eked them out in the tie-breaker before losing a tight game in Jacksonville the next week in the AFC Wildcard round.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore lost five games last year decided by one-possession including that last game of the regular season against the Bengals where they blew a 4th quarter lead by allowing a 44-yard touchdown pass with just 44 seconds left in that game. The Ravens returned this season with a sense of purpose led by quarterback Joe Flacco who was able to workout during the entire offseason after missing last year’s preseason after recovering from his ACL injury. Flacco seems poised to have his best season in years. The defense was outstanding last year including registering three shutouts during the season. Baltimore led the NFL with 3 takeaways including ten forced turnovers in the first two weeks of the season. The Ravens have covered the point sported in 15 of their last 20 games in the first two weeks of the season under head coach John Harbaugh — and this includes them covering the point spread in seven of their last ten opening weeks to a new season. Facing this defense should be a scary proposition for Buffalo who will be starting quarterback Nathan Peterman on the road who was an interception machine in his lone start last year by throwing five picks in the first half against the Chargers. While the Bills made the playoffs last year, this team looks likely to take a number of steps backward this season. QB Tyrod Taylor was steady under center for the team last year while perhaps doing his best work by not turning the ball over. The franchise moved on from Taylor by drafting Josh Allen in the first-round of the NFL draft but the rookie from Wyoming demonstrated he was not ready to start in the NFL in the preseason. The Bills also have significant issues on their offensive line. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on field turf — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Baltimore.

FINAL TAKE: While Buffalo stole the Ravens playoff spot last season, these teams look to be moving in the opposite direction. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Baltimore Ravens (460) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-0) returns to the field again after losing in the AFC Championship Game in which they lost in New England by a 24-20 score. New York (0-0) has undertaken a new start after crashing and burning last year with a 3-13 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return 21 of 22 starters from last year — but one of those starters remains embattled quarterback Blake Bortles. The team signed him to a two-year extension after he did not commit a turnover in the playoffs. However, Bortles threw 13 interceptions in the regular season (7th most in the NFL) while only attempting 547 passes through the playoffs which was his lowest amount since his rookie season. Significant issues remain for this quarterback for which it is rumored that head coach Doug Marrone and his coaching staff limits his practice time against the Jags’ defense so as to not impair his confidence. Short-to-medium range accuracy remains an issue for the former Central Florida quarterback while his capacity to read NFL wide receiver routes is still a question mark. And while all quarterbacks struggle under pressure, Bortles’ becomes almost completely ineffective against quality pass rushes with his Passer Rating of 96.0 dropping to 55.2 — and that 40.8 drop in Passer Rating under pressure is the biggest collapse of all NFL quarterbacks. Bortles is also without one of his key weapons with wide receiver Marquise Lee out the season with a knee injury. Of course, the strength of this Jacksonville defense is their defense that was 2nd in the NFL in points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yards allowed (286.1 YPG). But the Regression Gods are likely to make a visit with this team given those outstanding numbers — especially for a pass defense that was historically excellent. A favorable strength of schedule helped prop up those numbers last year. And run defense was an issue as they allowed opposing rushers to average 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry. The formula for success for this team was for the defense to ensure that they took a lead which allowed Bortles to execute most of his passes from play-action plays. But this team is not equipped to come-from-behind. The Jags only won one game last year when trailing at halftime — and they were 2-5 straight-up when their opponents scored first. That is not a good sign when playing on the road where they were just 4-4 last year with questionable losses at Arizona, San Francisco and Tennessee. Jacksonville failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents. The Jaguars have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Jaguars tend to start the new season slow as they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games in the month of September — including failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to the season. New York should make significant improvements this season being just one year removed from their 11-5 campaign in 2016-17. The Giants suffered four net close losses decided by one possession. Furthermore, the team was ravaged by injuries particularly on offense with their wide receivers and their offensive line. QB Eli Manning will have a significant upgrade of talent in his huddle today with Odell Beckham, Jr. healthy and happy with his new contract along with rookie Saquon Barkley at running back along with a healthy line that has added left tackle Nate Solder from New England. The defense hopes to return to their outstanding 2016 form under new defensive coordinator James Bettcher after the unit was a dysfunctional mess as they rebelled against former head coach Bob McAdoo. Butcher brought in a former player with the Cardinals in defensive end Kareem Martin who will serve as a de-facto coach on the field. The Giants are not home underdogs very often in the Manning era — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as a home underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This is a good opening situation to invest in with Jacksonville a bit overrated after their deep playoff run last year while New York being undervalued after they hot rock bottom last year. Grab the points and don’t be surprised if the Giants pull the upset. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (451) and the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-0) will have their Super Bowl Ring Ceremony at home at Liberty Financial Field as they open the NFL season at home after defeating New England in last year’s Super Bowl. Atlanta (0-0) will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing in this building last January 13th in a 15-10 loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles held the Falcons to just 281 yards of offense in that January victory. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz may have figured out the Atlanta offense as his group held them to just 303 yards of offense in their 24-15 win in their previous meeting back on November 13th in the 2016-17 season where the Falcons broke numerous records on offense while averaging 33.8 PPG. This Eagles team remains loaded on defense this season especially on their defensive line where Schwartz may have his dream situation in place with ten players who he can feel very comfortable rotating in-and-out in his wide-nine scheme. Schwartz banks on generating pressure on the quarterback with just his four-man front without relying on blitzes which gives him an extra player or two who can drop back into pass coverage. The Eagles may have to count on winning another low-scoring game with Carson Wentz still out with that ACL injury from last year — and Super Bowl MVP will not have the services of their top wide receiver in Alshon Jeffrey who is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 9 of their last 13 opening weeks to a new season. The Eagles have also played 12 of their last 18 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Atlanta certainly has spent all of the offseason preparing for the Eagles’ Run-Pass-Option offense that they unveiled in that playoff game with Foles under center last January. The defense steadily improved last year before flexing their muscles in the playoffs by completing the Rams offensive attack in Los Angeles in their 26-13 win in the Wild Card round before liming the Eagles to just 15 points and only 334 yards of offense the next week. The Falcons have played 7 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. The Atlanta offense also tends to slow down considerably when taking out of the pristine conditions in both the Georgia Dome and now Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have seen the Under go a decisive 33-16-2 in their last 51 games when playing on grass that slows down their speedy offensive players.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams rested their starters on offense during the preseason which will likely make both offenses ever slower to get started this season. Expect another showdown between these two teams to be dominated by the defenses with a lower scoring game being the result. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (451) and the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-0) will have their Super Bowl Ring Ceremony at home at Liberty Financial Field as they open the NFL season at home after defeating New England in last year’s Super Bowl. Atlanta (0-0) will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing in this building last January 13th in a 15-10 loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE ATLANTA PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons have spent the entire offseason stewing about that loss as they had the ball inside the 10-yard line with the opportunity to win that game before failing to reach pay dirt in four plays. That final series of plays demonstrated the difficulties Atlanta had all season in the Red Zone. While the Falcons were 8th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 364.8 total YPG, they dropped to 15th in the league by scoring 22.1 PPG. Most of that blame has been placed on their first-year offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian — and I consider those criticisms very fair for a cronyism hire for Dan Quinn with both coaches in the Pete Carroll coaching tree. Sarkisian’s only previous NFL experience was a Quarterback’s Coach with the Raiders under Bill Musgrove in middle-aughts before serving as Carroll’s OC at USC before taking that head coaching job when Carroll dashed to Seattle before NCAA penalties were handed down on the Trojans’ program. Sarkisian was last seen serving as the OC for Alabama when they lost to Clemson in the 2017 National Championship Game when he took over for the departing Lane Kiffin. While I presume my feelings for Sark have not been hidden, I do think he will improve with his Red Zone play-calling — and the team adding wide receiver Calvin Ridley in the 1st Round of the draft gives him another weapon. The fact remains that the Falcons have lost to the Super Bowl Champions in the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. This is a good team on both sides of the football who are well-positioned t make another run. Their offense last year was destined to take a step back after a historical 2016-17 campaign where they averaged 33.8 PPG. The deeper metrics suggest that quarterback Matt Ryan may have actually had a better season last year — he was victimized by five tipped balls that resulted in interceptions which were the most any QB has endured since the 2010 season. The defense steadily improved last year before flexing their muscles in the playoffs by completing the Rams offensive attack in Los Angeles in their 26-13 win in the Wild Card round before liming the Eagles to just 15 points and only 334 yards of offense the next week. That playoff game is when Philly unveiled the Nick Foles’ offense that featured head coach Doug Pederson’s version of the Run-Pass-Option offense that Foles ran previously under Chip Kelly — and that offense would go on to destroy the Minnesota and New England defenses. Perhaps the most important thing that Quinn has done this offseason was address a subpar Special Teams unit. Quinn hired a new assistant Special Teams coach in Mayur Chaudhari while focused the third day of the draft on potential new special teamers — and the team added a Pro Bowl Special Teamer in free agent Justin Bethel from Arizona. Atlanta begins the season almost completely healthy with zero players on Injured Reserve (as opposed to teams like Indianapolis who have 20 players on IR). The Falcons usually start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog getting 7 or fewer points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 13 opportunities to play on Thursday Night Football, the Falcons have covered the point spread 11 times. I am not down on this Philadelphia team — but I do think the prospects of them suffering a letdown after their celebratory offseason is very high. The team is missing two key pieces in this game with QB Carson Wentz still out with his torn ACL and wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey doubtful with a shoulder injury. The Eagles are confronting a challenging history where seven of the last seventeen Super Bowl winners failed to even make the playoffs the next season. Remember that this Philadelphia defense surrendered over 500 yards of passing yards to Tom Brady before lifting the Lombardi Trophy. The Eagles defense begins this season with questions with their weak-side linebacker and their nickel cornerback.

FINAL TAKE: Ring ceremonies are tough on the home teams as it is very hard to get their minds off of celebrating last year’s accomplishments while their opponents are completely focused on the task at hand. With the Falcons filled with revenge as well, they should be very motivated to find a small measure of redemption from their disappointment from last January. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 4th, we will be playing the New England Patriots (102) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (101) in the Super Bowl. Everything for Philadelphia (15-3) went right after falling behind in the NFC Championship Game after they fell behind by a 7-0 score as they then rattled off 38 unanswered points to upset the Vikings by a 38-7 score. Their momentum was triggered by a 50-yard interception return for a touchdown that tied the score at 7-7 and settled down Nick Foles and the Eagles offense while also igniting the crowd. We had Minnesota in that game — and, frankly, I am largely dismissing that result as the outcome of two outlier performances. The Vikings probably played their worst game of the season as they admitted in retrospect that they were emotionally spent after their dramatic last-second win over the Saints the previous week. Philadelphia also played one of their best games of the season — and I am expecting a big letdown for this team after such a dominant performance. As it is, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. But Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as a home dog. Remember, this Eagles team squeaked by Atlanta in their previous playoff game due in large measure to the ineffective Falcons Red Zone offense this season. Despite how good Foles’ playoff numbers are (that we will hear about for two weeks), the Eagles scored only 15 points against Atlanta despite being at home. Over their last three games, Philly is scoring just 17.7 PPG while averaging a mere 336.3 total YPG. In Foles’ first four games since taking over for Carson Wentz, he was Checkdown Charlie who completed just 2 of his 15 passes of more than 20 yards in the air for a miserable 13.8 Passer Rating. Foles exploded against Minnesota by completing 4 of 6 passes of 20 or more yards in the air for 172 yards and two TD passes — but I have to credit some of that to the Vikings’ simply being shellshocked during what turned out to be a 38-0 run. Foles looked awful in his final two regular season games. I expect the true Nick Foles is somewhere in the middle of these performances — and that is not in Tom Brady’s dimension. The Philadelphia defense also deserves mention as they have flexed their muscles by allowing just 33 combined points over their last four games while never allowing more than 10 points in any of those games. But all those games were at home. In their three previous games on the road (before this recent stretch), the Eagles allowed 88 combined points at Seattle, at the Los Angeles Rams and at the New York Giants (and no doubt the Patriots will study what Eli Manning did in shredding the Philly defense for 795 passing yards in two games this season). Philadelphia allowed 23.5 PPG on the road this season with six of their eight opponents scoring at least 23 points — their seasonal stats are skewed by allowing just 9 points against that Cowboys team without both Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith. Playing on turf might also be an issue for this team after playing on field turf just three times this season. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the faster field turf. Throw-in their lack of recent playoff experience playing away from home and the lack of Super Bowl experience for most of the players and coaches on the staff and this is all new territory for this team. With the back of all the members of this organization knowing that they reached the Super Bowl without QB Carson Wentz, left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks, this team has the profile of a group that may turn out to just be happy to be in the Super Bowl.

New England (15-3) is clearly focused on winning a second straight Super Bowl while adding credentials to the mark in the history books. Remember that this team began the year with talk of them going through the season undefeated. While that did not happen, they have now won five straight games with their 24-20 win over Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning at least five straight games. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in ten of their last twelve games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Eagles were able to seize momentum against the Vikings not only with that defensive touchdown but also with a +3 net turnover margin. It is highly unlikely that the Patriots will be as giving as Minnesota was. New England has only turned the ball over three times in their last five games — and never more than one time during those five games. In fact, the Patriots only had 13 turnovers all season with just four of those games seeing them turn the ball over more than once and never more than twice in a game. New England has turned the ball over twice in only two games over their last twelve contests. This is a team that emphasizes protecting the football. They also have a significantly better Special Teams than the Eagles (at least according to Football Outsiders than ranks the Patriots as 2nd in the NFL while rating the Philly Special Teams unit 21st in the league). Additionally, let me state something that will appear obvious at first glance but perhaps a subtler reason to like New England in this game upon deeper reflection: the key to this game for the Eagles is to prevent the Patriots from getting off to a fast start. New England has played ten playoffs games over the last four postseasons where they are 9-1 straight-up with two Super Bowl trophies and a third pending. The Patriots have gone into halftime with a lead in five of those games — and they have gone on to win all five of those games by an average winning margin of +20.6 PPG with the closest final score being their 27-20 win over Kansas City in the Divisional round in January 2016 where they went on to lose at Denver. In those remaining five games where they either trailed or were tied at halftime, they still on to win four of those games. Three of those wins were by 4 points with last year’s Super Bowl being that 34-26 overtime win over the Falcons. So perhaps Eagles bettors will take comfort in their potential halftime lead given those numbers? Yeah, maybe — as if those three 4-point wins represents overwhelming evidence versus a point spread that looks destined to be in the -4.5 to -5.5 point range (as of this writing). But I took note of the fact that the Patriots have not gone to halftime without a lead in two straight playoff games since this latest Super Bowl run started in the 2014-15 season. After trailing Jacksonville last week at the half by a 14-10 score and the memory of their near-disastrous 21-3 halftime deficit to the Falcons in last year’s Super Bowl, I think that Bill Belichick will place a premium on getting off to a good start. And with their vast playoff experience and the fact that almost everything went right for the Eagles in the first-half last week when they went to the lockers with a 24-7 lead, why would one not expect New England to once again avoid trailing (or being tied) at halftime in two straight playoff games? Consistency defines Belichick and Tom Brady. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. And in their last 36 games as the favorite, the Patriots have then covered the point spread in 27 of these games. Perhaps the Eagles pull off their third straight upset victory? Perhaps the Patriots will win yet another Super Bowl by 4 points or less like they have done in four of their five Super Bowl Championships in the Belichick-Brady era? Perhaps … but it seems like almost everything has to go right for the Eagles to be in that position. New England has shown that even if everything does not go right for them, they still enter into coin-flip situations regarding if they will cover the point spread. And if the breaks go mostly their way, the Patriots cover the point spread easily. That is a great betting scenario when our worst case scenario still puts us in solid shape. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (102) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (101) in the Super Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 4th, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the New England Patriots (102). New England (15-3) reached the Super Bowl with their 24-20 win over Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game. The Patriots offense was slowed down a bit from both Rob Gronkowski’s concussion as well as a questionable fumble call on running back Deion Lewis for what was looking like a touchdown drive midway through the second-half. That game finished below the 46-point total for that game — but New England has still played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the playoffs. The Patriots have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as the number one seed in the playoffs. This offense has been remarkably consistent this season. For the year, they are scoring 28.7 PPG while averaging 393.3 total YPG. In their eight games away from this season, New England is scoring 27.9 PPG while averaging 398.9 total YPG. In their last three contests, the Pats are scoring 28.3 PPG while averaging 370.7 total YPG. And in their twelve games played on field turf this year, New England is scoring 28.4 PPG while generating 392.2 total YPG. In fact, the Patriots have played a decisive 67 of their last 100 games Over the Total when playing on field turf which includes not only their home games but also those away games on turf which is the surface for this Super Bowl in Minnesota. Gronkowski should be able to play in this game with two weeks to get through the concussion protocol (and how high is his normal baseline test that he has to reach anyways?). At full strength, this New England offense is simply loaded with diverse weapons this season. Tom Brady has much more options at his disposal than the one last year that scored 34 points in overtime in their win over the Falcons.

Philadelphia (15-3) generated 456 yards of offense against an outstanding Vikings defense last week in their 38-7 win over Minnesota to win the NFC Championship Game. Doug Pederson and the offensive coaching staff for the Eagles have done a masterful job in using the bye week in the first-round of the playoffs to install an offense tailored to the skill set of QB Nick Foles. He completed 26 of 33 passes last week against the Vikings for 352 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. In the playoffs, Foles has completed 49 of his 63 passes for 602 yards. Philadelphia has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 300 yards in their last contest. On the defensive side of the football, the Under deserves consideration since the Eagles have allowed just 33 combined points over their last four games while never allowing more than 10 points in any of those games. But all those games were at home. In their three previous games on the road (before this recent stretch), the Eagles allowed 88 combined points at Seattle, at the Los Angeles Rams and at the New York Giants (and no doubt the Patriots will study what Eli Manning did in shredding the Philly defense for 795 passing yards in two games this season). Philadelphia allowed 23.5 PPG on the road this season with six of their eight opponents scoring at least 23 points — their seasonal stats are skewed by allowing just 9 points against that Cowboys team without both Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith. As it is, the Eagles have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. Playing on turf is also an issue since Philly played most of their games on grass which tends to slow down speedy offensive players. The Eagles have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Furthermore, their win over the Vikings finished above the 39 point total for that game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Lastly, the pressure of the Super Bowl and needing to defeat Brady and his uncanny ability to generate 4th quarter comebacks will likely compel Doug Pederson to be aggressive with his play-calling and decisions — and that should create more scoring opportunities for both teams (one way or another). 25* NFL Super Bowl *A-List* O/U Special with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Philadelphia Eagles (101) and the New England Patriots (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

SUPER BOWL PROPOSITIONS BETTING CARD. Please note that this Prop Bets Report is only a bonus; the Guarantee policy applies only to the Super Bowl Over part of this Report. Thanks, Frank.

Our Best Bet Wager is on the Tom Brady completing more passes than Nick Foles with the line at -3 passes — priced at -170 at Bovada. To be clear, Brady has to complete four more passes than Foles to win this bet (with Brady completing three more passes than Foles pushing the bet). Philadelphia is more anxious to run the football to control the line of scrimmage while burning time off the clock to keep the Patriots offense off the field. New England will pass a bit more for two reasons in addition to that. First, they are going to run more plays on offense because it is highly likely they will operate their no-huddle offense to attempt to thwart the Eagles ability to rotate players on the defensive line. Second, Jim Schwartz’s defense will likely protect the deeper ball which will leave a soft underbelly for 5 to 7 yard passing plays — and Brady has shown a proclivity to be very happy to nickel-and-dime his way down the field with these short passes. I much prefer a Brady-Completions Bet to a Brady-Passing Yards Bet for this reason. Additionally, if the Eagles are winning this game in the second half, they will move to running the ball even more. However, even if the Patriots are winning in the second half, the trust in Brady is so high that they will continue to pass the ball with those short but safe passes.

Our Top Underlay Wager is with the Patriots -0.5 points in the 4th quarter which Bovada prices at -110. We all know how good Tom Brady has been in the 4th quarter in Super Bowls with the memory of New England’s big 4th quarter comeback against Atlanta last year (as well as against Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game two weeks ago). In Brady’s last two Super Bowls, he has completed 29 of 36 passes in the 4th quarter for 320 yards with two TDs, no interceptions and a Quarterback Rating of 129. If the Patriots are trailing again, Brady should make the game close (at the very least). But if New England is winning, I don’t love Nick Foles’ ability to rally his team if he is forced to throw the football. Foles is at his best when operating the Run-Pass Option — and those plays require the ability to take what the defense gives you when the receiver is covered. Foles will feel compelled to throw the football if the Eagles need quick scoring. Foles’ productivity also significantly declines if and when he is under pressure. The Patriots will certainly feel free to apply pressure with blitzes and other schemes if they know Foles is throwing the football.

Our Long Shot Wager is on Zack Ertz to have the most receiving yards in this game which Bovada places at +400. The value is in choosing an Eagles passing target since the Patriots have so many weapons in their passing game with Brady often going to his running backs (in those short safety valve passes which makes our Top Underlay Bet so intriguing). So I consider all the Patriot options for this bet Overlays (with Rob Gronkowski the favorite at +300 and Brandin Cooks tied for second favorite at +400). Ertz is not only one of the best tight ends in the NFL by also Philadelphia’s most reliable pass catcher. Furthermore, the Patriots’ linebackers to struggle in pass coverage — and this is a prime area for the Eagles to exploit. If the Eagles enjoy a second-half lead, Ertz will likely have played a big part. If they are trailing, Ertz will be a key component in their passing game. In the end, have fun with these bets but please keep in mind I still consider the best (and most reliable) two betting options for the Super Bowl to be our Side and Totals plays. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Minnesota (14-3) has won four straight games with their 29-24 win over New Orleans on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. The Vikings have then played 15 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home where they failed to cover the point spread as a favorite. Additionally, not only has Minnesota played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games but they have played 27 of their last 42 road games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Case Keenum led an offense that generated 493 yards against the Saints defense. Moving forward, they have played a decisive 57 of their last 87 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

Philadelphia (14-3) has won four of their last five games with their 15-10 upset win over the Falcons as a 2.5-point underdog. The Eagles won that game despite enduring a -2 net turnover margin in that game — and that came off losing the turnover battle in their last regular season game against the Cowboys. Philadelphia has then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. The Eagles have also played 7 straight games Over the Total after losing the turnover battle in at least two straight games. Philadelphia has not rushed for more than 96 yards in three straight games — but they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in three straight games. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. Additionally, Philly has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total as an underdog. And while this stout Eagles defense has allowed only 10, 6 and 10 points in each of their last three games, those results help trigger a contrarian Over play. For starters, Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. Lastly, because the Eagles have played their last three games Under the Total by at least 15 points, the Under is supported by a strong empirical angle that has been 69% effective over the last ten seasons. In games involving a team that has played their last three games Under the total by at least a touchdown, these games finished Over the Total in 48 of the last 70 situations where these conditions applied. Even better, if this game is between Conference rivals, then this Over angle tightens to a crisp 38 of 53 (72%) clip. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (313) and the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (313) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Philadelphia (14-3) has won four of their last five games with their 15-10 upset win at home against the Falcons last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Eagles got out their Dog Masks after the game to bask in their pulling the upset against Atlanta — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after an upset win at home as an underdog. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up victory. The Eagles survived that game despite a -2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a game where they committed at least two more turnovers than their opponent. QB Nick Foles is the reason why this team is an underdog yet again in this game — but it is for good reason. He was solid against the Falcons after completing 23 of 30 passes for 246 yards with no interceptions. But he did not throw a touchdown pass - -and he rushed for -2 yards. Unfortunately for the Eagles, that was probably the most they can expect to get out of their backup QB. Remember that Foles struggled in his previous two starts against Dallas and Oakland — he completed just 23 of 49 passes for 202 yards with one TD pass and two interceptions in those two games combined. The Eagles did use the bye week to redesign their offense by having Foles run the read-option plays that he thrived executing in his one season running the Chip Kelly offense with the Eagles a few years ago. Who knows if the Falcons spent much time preparing for that blast from the past last week in practice — but it is a guarantee that the Mike Zimmer will make sure his team invests a significant amount of time preparing for read-options that other teams like the Cowboys and Panthers also deploy. So the element of surprise for Philadelphia running this offense is gone. Foles sees his effectiveness decline significantly when facing pressure — and he does not do a great job making quick decisions regarding his read progressions with wide receivers. Those are bad qualities to have when facing this ferocious Vikings’ defense. The Eagles are scoring just 11.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging only 256.3 total YPG. The rushing game has not been able to step up to take pressure off Foles. Philadelphia has not rushed for more than 96 yards in three straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs.

Minnesota (14-3) survived their game with New Orleans last week with their 29-24 win Saints salvaged by the 61-yard touchdown pass to Stefan Diggs as time expired. I think that miraculous victory will galvanize this team and give them confidence moving forward — and it certainly cements any lingering doubts about the ability of Case Keenum to lead this team to the promise land. As it is, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while Minnesota failed to cover the 5.5-point spread as the favorite, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Keenum completed 25 of 40 passes for 318 yards and a touchdown pass against the Saints — and the Vikings have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Minnesota defense did give up 358 yards to the Drew Brees-led New Orleans offense — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The encouraging aspect of the Vikings defense for this game is their run defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL by limiting team to just 83.6 rushing YPG. They have allowed only 74 rushing YPG over their last  three games after giving up just 30 and 80 rushing yards in each of their last two games. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. This stout Vikings defense is particularly good on 3rd Down where they were tops in the NFL in limiting opposing offenses in converting 3rd Down plays. In fact, Minnesota only allowed opposing offenses to convert 51 3rd Downs during the regular season. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games as the favorite. 25* NFC Playoff Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (313) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

BRADY WRIST-GATE UPDATE (Friday): The line has moved down to New England in the -7.5 point range with the news that Tom Brady injured his throwing wrist in practice. I released my AFC plays before this took place (taking the Patriots at -8.5). The Patriots’ Beat Writer says that the “chatter” is that Brady injured the area between his thumb forefinger. Brady can still throw but his snaps under center may be limited. Pain is the biggest issue (and he will likely be shot up before kickoff). That all said, in general, I don’t let rumors of injuries sway my handicapping on a game — so my recommendation is to just ride things out (like I am) if you you have already invested in this play. If you have yet to bet, I would jump all over any -7s you can find and be happy with -7.5. I am not letting these rumors diffuse from the strong fundamental play on the Patriots. For those needing a pick me up, I did hear that Brady has, in fact, thrown some passes in practice. It makes sense for the Pats to exhibit extreme caution with their veteran. Brady still benefited from just walking through the Thursday/Friday practices where specific offensive game plans and Red Zone plays were worked on — and many former NFL QBs argued that just walking through those plays to intellectualize them is all Brady really needs. Thanks, Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (312) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Jacksonville (12-6) caught the Steelers looking way ahead to a possible rematch with their arch-nemesis New England last Sunday — and they raced out to a 21-0 lead in Pittsburgh before surviving by a 45-42 score as a 7-point underdog. I do expect this Jaguars team to suffer from an emotional letdown after that upset victory on the road. Not only has this team failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they enjoyed a 28-14 lead at halftime in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after holding at least a two-touchdown lead at halftime of their last game. Now this team stays on the road for the fourth time in their last five games which is a dangerous proposition for a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games on the road. Some are comparing this team to the Baltimore Ravens and New York Giants teams that have had success against  the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady teams of the Patriots in the playoffs — and Tom Coughlin is an executive with this team with plenty of influence. But those teams had two significant differences with this Jaguars team. First, Blake Bortles has yet to prove he is (even) in the Joe Flacco or Eli Manning class of quarterbacks. Admittedly, he did not turn the ball over last week while completing 14 of 26 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown pass — and this performance earned rave reviews from many NFL pundits who lower than standards when assessing him. Keep in mind that Bortles completed only three passes that traveled in the air more than 10 yards against the Steelers. And Jacksonville was able to never ask Bortles to do too much after racing out to that early lead — helped greatly by yet another defensive touchdown against that Pittsburgh team. Remember that it was just a short week ago when Bortles became just the 5th NFL passer to not generate at least 100 yards in the air in a playoff game since 2006 in that contest with the Bills where he visibly looked uncomfortable to throw the ball downfield. Second, this Jaguars defense is good — but this is not an elite unit like those Giants or Ravens groups. Yes, the Jaguars finished 2nd in the NFL in both points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yardage (286.1 total YPG) — but check out their strength of schedule. Jacksonville was able to pad their numbers with NFL’s least productive division in terms of offense in the AFC South against Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston (they were fortunate to avoid QB DeShaun Watson both times). Throw in additional games against Cleveland, Baltimore in Week Three (that London game when their offense was ravaged with injuries and still finding itself), Cincinnati in Week Seven (when their offensive line was imploding) and then Buffalo in the Wild Card game. Then throw in their first game with the Steelers where they won by a 30-9 score with the benefit of two defensive touchdowns and five interceptions — and they allowed 65 combined points for a measly 6.5 PPG scoring average in those top ten defensive performances. There are six games — representing 33% of their results this year that should raise eyebrows for the wrong reasons: last week against the Steelers where they allowed 42 points and 545 yards of offense; allowing 44 points and 364 yards of offense against a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers offense on December 24th; allowing 27 points and 344 yards of offense led by Blaine Gabbert; allowing 27 points in a loss to the LA Rams on October 15th; allowing 23 points and a whopping 471 yards in a loss to the Jets on October 1st; allowing 37 points and 390 yards of offense to Titans back on September 17th. Of their eighteen games including their two in the playoffs, Jacksonville has played six playoff teams (with the Bills and Steelers’ second-meeting being in the actual playoffs). They are 3-3 overall in those games — but they are allowing 22.2 PPG and 341.7 total YPG in those six contests. Of course, the Jaguars had the benefit of facing the likely two worst teams to make the playoffs in Tennessee (twice) and Buffalo in the Wildcard round. Take away those three games to just assess how this Jaguars defense performed against Pittsburgh (twice) and the LA Rams and the results are simply unimpressive: 26.0 PPG and 388.3 total YPG allowed. Where this Jags’ defense struggles when compares to those Super Bowl winning Ravens and Giants teams that defeated the Brady/Belichick combo is in run defense. Jacksonville ranked 21st in the NFL during the regular season by allowing 116.2 rushing YPG. This is where the Patriots will attack. And while the Jaguars held the Steelers to just 83 rushing yards (on only 18 carries with Pittsburgh playing from a big deficit), they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game.

New England (14-3) will focus their defensive efforts on taking away the Jaguars’ best offensive weapon — and that means their rookie running back Leonard Fournette. In their 35-14 win over the Titans last week, the Patriots held Tennessee to just 65 rushing yards on only 16 rushing attempts. I made the same argument last week that the Pats would focus on stopping Derrick Henry and force QB Marcus Mariota to beat them. Marietta threw the ball 37 times for only 202 yards. Pundits that are still assessing the Patriots’ season-long statistics are missing the point. Ignore the fact that New England ranks 20th in run defense (114.8 rushing YPG). Over their last three games, the Patriots are holding teams to just 63 rushing YPG along with a 3.2 Yards-Per-Carry average. They have allowed only three rushing TDs since Week Five which is the second stingiest number in the league. In fact, since Week Five, the New England defense leads the NFL by holding opponents to just a 64.7% scoring success rate in the End Zone — and they also lead the NFL by allowing only 14.0 PPG since Week Five. And forget the Hot Take that the Patriots lack a pass rush as this year’s team ranks 6th in the NFL since Week Five with 34 sacks — and that was before they sacked Mariota last week eight times. New England has not allowed more than 17 points in each of their last six games at home. This team is rolling having won and covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring at least 30 points int heir last game. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 playoff games at home, New England has covered the point spread all 5 times. 20* NFL Jacksonville-New England CBS-TV Special with the New England Patriots (312) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

BRADY WRIST-GATE UPDATE (Friday): The line has moved down to New England to the 45 point total range with the news that Tom Brady injured his throwing wrist in practice. I released my AFC plays before this took place (taking the Over at 46.5). The Patriots’ Beat Writer says that the “chatter” is that Brady injured the area between his thumb forefinger. Brady can still throw but his snaps under center may be limited. Pain is the biggest issue (and he will likely be shot up before kickoff). That all said, in general, I don’t let rumors of injuries sway my handicapping on a game — so my recommendation is to just ride things out (like I am) if you you have already invested in this play. If you have yet to bet, I would jump all over any 45s you can find and be happy with -45.5. I am not letting these rumors diffuse from the strong fundamental play on the Over. For those needing a pick me up, I did hear that Brady has, in fact, thrown some passes in practice. It makes sense for the Pats to exhibit extreme caution with their veteran. Brady still benefited from just walking through the Thursday/Friday practices where specific offensive game plans and Red Zone plays were worked on — and many former NFL QBs argued that just walking through those plays to intellectualize them is all Brady really needs. Thanks, Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New England Patriots (312). Jacksonville (12-6) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 45-42 upset win at Pittsburgh last Sunday as a 7-point underdog. The Jaguars have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Jags scored a defensive touchdown in that game while enjoying a +2 net turnover margin — and they then played 7 straight games Over the Total after a game where they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin. Jacksonville generated 378 yards of offense in that game — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Jags have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Jacksonville offense is underrated — they ranked 5th in the NFL by scoring 26.1 PPG while ranking 6th by averaging 365.9 total YPG. After last week’s explosion, the Jags are averaging 28.1 PPG when playing on the road. The irony of this team is they are also a bit overrated when it comes to the strength of their defense. They allowed Ben Roethlisberger to pass for 462 yards en route to their 545 total yards of offense for the Steelers — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Jaguars finished 2nd in the NFL in both points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yardage (286.1 total YPG) — but check out their strength of schedule. Jacksonville was able to pad their numbers with NFL’s least productive division in terms of offense in the AFC South against Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston (they were fortunate to avoid QB DeShaun Watson both times). Throw in additional games against Cleveland, Baltimore in Week Three (that London game when their offense was ravaged with injuries and still finding itself), Cincinnati in Week Seven (when their offensive line was imploding) and then Buffalo in the Wild Card game. Then throw in their first game with the Steelers where they won by a 30-9 score with the benefit of two defensive touchdowns and five interceptions — and they allowed 65 combined points for a measly 6.5 PPG scoring average in those top ten defensive performances. There are six games — representing 33% of their results this year that should raise eyebrows for the wrong reasons: last week against the Steelers where they allowed 42 points and 545 yards of offense; allowing 44 points and 364 yards of offense against a Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers offense on December 24th; allowing 27 points and 344 yards of offense led by Blaine Gabbert; allowing 27 points in a loss to the LA Rams on October 15th; allowing 23 points and a whopping 471 yards in a loss to the Jets on October 1st; allowing 37 points and 390 yards of offense to Titans back on September 17th. Of their eighteen games including their two in the playoffs, Jacksonville has played six playoff teams (with the Bills and Steelers’ second-meeting being in the actual playoffs). They are 3-3 overall in those games — but they are allowing 22.2 PPG and 341.7 total YPG in those six contests. Of course, the Jaguars had the benefit of facing the likely two worst teams to make the playoffs in Tennessee (twice) and Buffalo in the Wildcard round. Take away those three games to just assess how this Jaguars defense performed against Pittsburgh (twice) and the LA Rams and the results are simply unimpressive: 26.0 PPG and 388.3 total YPG allowed. Where this Jags’ defense struggles when compares to those Super Bowl winning Ravens and Giants teams that defeated the Brady/Belichick combo is in run defense. Jacksonville ranked 21st in the NFL during the regular season by allowing 116.2 rushing YPG. This is where the Patriots will attack.

New England (14-3) has won four straight games with their 35-14 win over Tennessee last Sunday. The Patriots have won their last three games by at least three touchdowns — and they have then played 17 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after winning at least two games in a row by at least two touchdowns. New England has also played a decisive 48 of their last 69 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Patriots have also played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots stay at home for this game where they are scoring 30.0 PPG while generating 394.8 total YPG. Over their last three games, they are scoring 32.7 PPG. New England has played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 7 Playoff games at home, the Patriots have played all 7 games Over the Total. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New England Patriots (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (307) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (308). New Orleans (12-5) proved their playoff experience mettle last week in a gritty 31-26 victory over Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite. QB Drew Brees led an offense that generated 410 yards against a very good Panthers defense despite having the football for only 26:11 minutes in that game. The Saints have not paid off betting tickets in two straight weeks — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. The conventional wisdom regarding this team stubbornly remains that they are not as good on the road as they are at home in the Superdome. While they were 4-4 away from home this season, they outscored their opponents by +7.7 PPG due to an improved defense that holds their home hosts to just 18.2 PPG along with only 326.9 total YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road — and this includes covering the point spread in eight of their last nine road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January. Additionally, they are a decisive 42-20-1 ATS in their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. New Orleans is a very dangerous underdog in this situation — as it is, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, this Saints team will be playing with revenge on their mind after their 29-19 loss to the Vikings in the opening week of the season. This New Orleans team has improved on both sides of the ball since then — led mainly by the continued improvement of the rookies they drafted on both offense and defense. The Saints are much more balanced on offense now than they were in those salad days of early September — and they have will have seven different starters on the field today than they did in that opening game). Rookie running back Alvin Kamara ran the ball only 8 times for 18 yards with Adrian Peterson still on the team then taking away 6 carries while being limited in passing situations as a receiver and blocker. This New Orleans team has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge. Additionally, keep in mind that this Saints team has defeated five teams that made the playoffs this season — as opposed to the Vikings who beat three teams that made the playoffs (with New Orleans being one of those teams back in Week One).

Minnesota (13-3) has won three straight games with their 23-10 victory over the Bears on December 31st. The Vikings held a 16-7 lead at halftime in that game which was the third straight week that they went to the locker rooms at halftime with a double-digit lead. Unfortunately for Mike Zimmer’s team, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after holding at least a touchdown lead in their last three games. QB Case Keenum has earned a lot of money for himself by playing great football this season — particularly since Week 10. But this will be his first playoff start in his career while Brees will be making his thirteenth playoff start which includes one where he led his team to a Super Bowl victory. Brees should have a big advantage late in this game — his moxie and experience should ensure that his team is in a position to win this game before the final seconds tick away. Lastly, because the Saints have averaged 11.2 and 7.0 Yards Per Passing Attempt in their last two games, that helps place the Vikings into a nasty “play-against” angle that has been 77% effective over the last five seasons. Minnesota held the Bears to just 4.6 Yards Per Passing Attempt in their last game — but home favorites who held their last opponent to 5.5 or less Yards Per Passing Attempt in their last game now facing a team that has generated at least a 7.0 YPP in each of their last two games have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of the last 35 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (307) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

SUBSCRIBERS, PLEASE NOTE: I have upgraded this play to a 20* play. Thanks, Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (307) and the Minnesota Vikings (308). New  Orleans (12-5) has won three of their last four games with their 31-26 win over Carolina last week as a 6.5-point favorite. The Saints have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. New Orleans generated 410 yards of offense against a tough Panthers defense — and they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Saints defense did surrender 413 yards of offense themselves with Cam Newton passing for 306 of those yards. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. That game with the Panthers finished above the 47.5 point total — and that makes it 9 of their last 11 games that the Saints have played a game Over the Total when the number was listed in the 42.5 to 49 point range. New Orleans has also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the playoffs. This is a rematch of the Week One meeting between these two teams which was won by the Vikings by a 29-19 score. The Saints have played 18 of their last 24 road games Over the Total when looking to avenge a loss where their opponent scored at least 29 points.

Minnesota (13-3) has won three straight games entering the playoffs with their 23-10 win over the Bears two weeks ago. Many bettors may be scared off from taking the Over considering how good this Vikings defense is that has allowed only 17 combined points over their last three games. But Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. And while the Vikings have played three straight games Under the Total, they have then played 5 of 8 games Over the Total in that fourth game. QB Case Keenum has been outstanding since Week 10 this season: he boasts a 71% completion percentage while averaging 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt with 15 touchdown passes to just four interceptions over that span. Minnesota scores 24.7 PPG at home and they should be able to reach that number this afternoon against this Saints’ defense that has allowed at least 400 total yards in two straight games. Lastly, the Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (307) and the Minnesota Vikings (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (306) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (305). Pittsburgh (13-3) has experienced an interesting week with Le’Veon Bell publicly speculating about sitting out next season given a potential contract dispute while other players already discussing a possible matchup with the Patriots next week. But I think that any chance of this team taking the Jaguars lightly in practice this week was eliminated when they got crushed by this Jacksonville team back on October 8th by a 30-9 score despite being a 7-point favorite at home. Ben Roethlisberger certainly remembers that game as he threw 5 interceptions in that defeat — so he has much to make up for in this rematch. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home. Pittsburgh has a significant experience advantage in this contest. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games in the playoffs. The Steelers are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games. On the plus side, Pittsburgh does look to get wide receiver Antonio Brown on the field — although it remains unclear how effective he can be with that calf.

Jacksonville (11-6) outlasted Buffalo last week in their 10-3 win over the Bills as an 8-point favorite. The Jaguars continued to be dominant on defense as they held the Bills to just 263 yards of offense while limiting them to only 3.65 Yards-Per-Play. Unfortunately for this Jacksonville team, such dominating defensive efforts has not translated into point spread success in the following week. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have not covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games not allowing their opponents to score more than 9 points in their last contest. Additionally, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. The offensive side of the football is the problem for this team. Any sense of optimism regarding the growth of QB Blake Bortles during the regular season has been dissipated after his lackluster effort last week. It is not just that he completed only 12 of 23 passes for 87 yards which made him only the 4th starting quarterback to fail to pass for least 100 yards in a playoff game since 2006, it is the evident lack of confidence he now has in throwing the football. He was wildly inaccurate in his misses — and the wind is only so much of an excuse. Too often against the Bills, Bortles abandoned passing the football and tried to move the ball with his legs. The Jaguars managed only 230 yards of offense. The Steelers will clearly stack the box to slow down Leonard Fournette and dare an insecure Bortles to beat them with his arm. That is an uncomfortable formula for this Jacksonville team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as well as in 5 of their last 6 playoff games on the road. 25* AFC Playoff Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (306) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (305) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (306). Jacksonville (11-6) flexed their muscles on defense last week with their 10-3 win over Buffalo. The Jaguars held the Bills to just 263 yards of offense in that game. Jacksonville was 2nd in the NFL in both points allowed and total defense as they hold their opponents to just 15.9 PPG along with only 284.8 total YPG (after last week)— and this defense travels as they are holding their home hosts to only 15.4 PPG and 288.0 total YPG which is right in line with their seasonal numbers. The formula for success in this game is defense and running the football. Blake Bortles threw the ball only 23 times last week while often looking like he lacked confidence. He completed 12 of those balls for 87 yards making him just the fourth quarterback since 2006 to not pass for at least 100 yards in a playoff game. The Jaguars have to burn time off the clock and shorten the length of this game — and that helps our Under play. They failed to cover the 8-point spread last week against Buffalo — and they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Jacksonville has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, this team has played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. And in their last 9 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Jaguars have played 8 of these games Under the Total.

Pittsburgh (13-3) enters this game coming off their 28-24 win over the Browns on December 31st. The Steelers have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing at home after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Pittsburgh surrendered 272 passing yards in that game — and they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Steelers will be looking to avenge a 30-9 loss to the Jaguars back on October 8th — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss by at least four touchdowns to their opponents. And remember with that game that two of the Jacksonville touchdowns came off tipped passes that were then intercepted and returned for a touchdown. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Steelers have also played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 6 games in the playoffs, the Under is 4-1-1. 10* NFL Jacksonville-Pittsburgh O/U CBS-TV Special with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (305) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). New England (13-3) has been a favorite laying at least 13 points at home in the AFC Playoffs three times in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era — and all were in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs. They have covered the point spread twice — defeating the Texans by a 34-16 score as 16-point favorites last season as well as beating Denver by a 45-10 score as 14-point favorites back in 2012. Their lone point spread defeat in a similar Playoff situation was back on 2008 when they “only” beat Jacksonville by a 31-20 score when they were laying 13.5-points. Furthermore, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games when laying more than 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 14 points. So while laying close to two touchdowns can be risky business in the NFL, backing Brady and Belchick in that situation has been profitable. New England has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games against AFC opponents. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Playoffs including their last four games at home in the Playoffs.

Tennessee (10-7) rallied from a 21-3 halftime deficit to secure eke out a 22-21 win at Kansas City as an 8.5-point underdog last Saturday. But this Titans team is 16-38-2 ATS in their last 56 games after a straight-up victory — and they are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 6 after a win by 3 points or less. And in their last 6 games after an upset win as an underdog, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in all 6 games. This is a very tough assignment for a team that has been outscored and outgained by their opponents this season. Additionally, not only has this Tennessee team failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 11 road games as an underdog in the 10.5 to 14 point range. The Titans will want to run the ball — but those plans will have to be abandoned if and when they fall behind. QB Marcus Mariota leads the NFL with 13 interceptions when he is not facing pressure — so things will probably get ugly. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the New England Patriots (304). New England (13-3) has been a favorite laying at least 13 points three times in the AFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. The results were as follows: a 34-16 win over Houston last year with the Total at 44; a 45-10 win over Denver in 2012 with the Total set at 50; a 31-20 win over Jacksonville with the Total set at 51. While the Total was 2-0-1 for those three games, all three games saw at least 50 combined points scored with the Patriots averaging 36.7 PPG over that stretch. If New England approaches that number in this game, then this game should go safely Over the Total. The Patriots enter this game with momentum as they followed up their 37-16 win over Buffalo in Week 16 with a 26-6 victory over the Jets to close out their regular season. New England has then played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after winning at least two straight games by double-digits. The Patriots are averaging 29.4 PPG at home this season — and they have not only played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total at home but they have also played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, New England has played 6 straight playoff games at home Over the Total. And in their last 8 games in the AFC Divisional Playoffs, the Over is 7-0-1.

Tennessee (10-7) got their offense going in the second-half last week by scoring 19 points to stun Kansas City with their 22-21 upset victory as an 8.5-point underdog. The Titans have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to score more than a field goal in the first-half of their last game. Tennessee has also played 16 of their last 22 games after a victory by 3 points or less in their last game. The Titans have played two straight games Under the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing two straight games that finished below the number. Tennessee’s defense ranks 13th in the NFL by allowing 328.0 total YPG — but Pro Football Focus ranks their strength of schedule of opposing offenses to be last in the league. The Titans pass defense allowed 239.2 passing YPG this season which was 25th in the NFL. Considering that the Tennessee run defense ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 88.8 rushing YPG, it is the passing game from which the Patriots are likely to exploit — and that helps our Over play with more stoppages of the clock likely coming from incomplete passes. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 5 trips to Foxboro to play the Patriots, the game finished Over the Total 4 times. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the New England Patriots (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (301). Philadelphia (13-3) is the first top seed in the Divisional Round of the playoffs to be listed as a home underdog in the history of the NFL — and this will certainly add more fuel to their fire in this game. The Eagles are getting the points in this game in large part because they are facing a surging Falcons team that reached the Super Bowl last year. But QB Nick Foles has struggled in his last two starts taking over under center after the season-ending injury to Carson Wentz. The Eagles struggled on national television on Christmas night in their 19-10 win over the Raiders — and the offense was listless in Week 17 of the regular season when they could not score a point against the Cowboys in their 6-0 loss at home to Dallas a 4-point underdog (with that underdog status predicated on the team benching starters for much of that game). Don’t be surprised if this Philadelphia team comes out and plays their best game of the season since the Wentz injury. The Eagles defense remains loaded as they showed even with the offense struggling. Philadelphia ranks 4th in the NFL by limiting their opponents to just 18.4 PPG — and they also rank 4th in the league by allowing just 306.5 total YPG. On their home field, the Eagles see those numbers drop of just 13.4 PPG along with 280.6 total YPG. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Foles does struggle when facing pressure — like most quarterbacks. But he has plenty of starting experience and has thrived as a starting quarterback when given time to pass. Look for the Eagles coaching staff to design a very good game plan to help put Foles in a position to win. This Falcons pass rush is solid but certainly not spectacular. They were 13th in the league by averaging 2.44 sacks per game. Over their last six games in this crucial stretch of the season, Atlanta has seen their sack total drop to just 2.0 sacks per game. Foles will get help from the Eagles rushing attack behind Jay Ajayi and LaGarrette Blount who helped the team finished 3rd in the NFL by averaging 132.2 rushing YPG. Philadelphia was 7-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +15.2 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

Atlanta (11-6) is finally getting tons of respect from bettors and NFL pundits after being dogged for most of the season as overachievers after making the Super Bowl last year but blowing that epic 28-3 halftime lead to the Patriots. But after the Falcons dominated the Los Angeles Rams last week on the road with their 26-13 victory, all those that hitched the ride on the advanced analytics that fell in love with that Rams team have to quickly find a new target for their affections. We loved the Falcons last week in that contrarian situation — and this is now a dangerous letdown spot on the road playing on grass in weather that looks to be under 50 degrees. Atlanta has failed to over the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Philadelphia. This will be the fourth game over Atlanta’s last five contests where they will be away from home — and that type of strenuous schedule continues to fatigue and costly mistakes. The Falcons’ defense has been playing their best football this season over the last few weeks — they have only allowed 23 combined points over the last two weeks after clinching their spot in the playoffs in the last game of the regular season with their 22-10 win over Carolina. But Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 14 points in at least two straight games. The Falcons are also precarious road favorites — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as the favorite. They are only outscoring their opponents on the road by +0.5 PPG due to an offense that scores just 22.1 PPG away from home. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 playoff games overall despite their Super Bowl run last year. 10* NFL Atlanta-Philadelphia NBC-TV Special with the Philadelphia Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (301) and the Philadelphia Eagles (302). Atlanta (11-6) has now played six straight games Under the Total given the steadily improved play of their defense combining with too many bettors not catching up to the reality that this Falcons offense is not as powerful this year as the one last year that led the NFL by scoring 33.8 PPG. This Total opened in the 43.5 range and has been bet down to 41 — and that is simply too low for how this game will likely play out. For starters, both these teams have amped up the number of offensive plays they are generating per game. Atlanta leads all teams left in the Playoffs by averaging 68.0 offensive plays per game over their last four contests — and that is well above their 62.5 offensive plays per game average for the regular season which was just 25th in the league. They now face an Eagles team that opponents passed the ball against in 61.4% of their offensive plays which was 3rd most this season. It stands to reason that the Falcons will emphasize the pass in this game considering that this Philadelphia team led the NFL by allowing a 79.2 rushing YPG. Atlanta behind Matt Ryan has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the Playoffs. The Over is also 11-4-2 in the Falcons’ last 17 games in the month of January. Additionally, the Over is 3-1-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Falcons come off their 26-13 upset win in Los Angeles as a 6.5-point underdog against the Rams last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after upset win as a road underdog.

Philadelphia (13-3) ran the 3rd most plays this season averaging 67.1 offensive plays per game this season — and that number dropped only slightly to 66.1 offensive plays per game over their last four contests which encompasses the time where Nick Foles became the starting quarterback for the injured Carson Wentz. The Eagles hale the field again after losing their last game of the regular season by a 6-0 score at home to the Cowboys as a 4-point underdog. Philadelphia has then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss at home. The Eagles have also played a decisive 47 of their last 69 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and this includes playing fifteen of their last twenty games Over the Total after a defeat. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. And they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Eagles ran the ball only 18 times in that game for 70 yards with their number one seed in the NFC already secured. The Eagles will surely attempt to get their ground game going support Foles under center — and they have seen he over go 40-15-1 in their last 56 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (301) and the Philadelphia Eagles (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (107) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (108). Carolina (11-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in their 22-10 loss in Atlanta as a 5-point underdog. The Panthers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, while Carolina surrendered 311 passing yards to Matt Ryan in that game, they are then 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Panthers stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Carolina has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January. This Panthers team lost both their encounters with the Saints this season — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games when playing with double-revenge. Carolina lost to this team by a 31-21 score back on December 3rd — and they have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 50 games when looking to avenge a loss where their opponent scored at least 28 points.

New Orleans (11-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 31-24 loss at Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite. This team typically does not respond to setbacks like that as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games as an upset loss as a road favorite. The Saints surrendered 455 yards in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This New Orleans defense showed marked improvement this season — but this unit has been plagued with injuries as of late with the loss of starting Sam linebacker A.J. Klein and their Jack of All Trades strong safety Kenny Vaccaro being the biggest blows. The Saints also endured a -2 net turnover margin against the Buccaneers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 43 home games after suffering a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. The Trilogy of this NFC South battle between two teams with a head coach and quarterback combination that has been in the Super Bowl shapes up to be a very close game — giving value to the underdog with the points who can pull off the upset. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Carolina Panthers (107) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the New Orleans Saints (108). Carolina (11-5) will be facing this Saints’ offense for the third time this season — and that should give an advantage to their defense given this familiarity. The Panthers have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals — and this includes playing four of their last five games Under the Total against divisional rivals. Carolina looks to bounce-back from their 22-10 loss in Atlanta last week with that final score falling far below that 44.5 point total. The Panthers offense managed to generate just 248 yards of offense in that game. Carolina also allowed 371 yards in that contest — and the Under is then 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Panthers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in a domed stadium. They only generate 308.2 YPG when playing on the road this season. But this stout Carolina defense only allows the home team to score 19.6 PPG while limiting them to just 303.2 total YPG.

New Orleans (11-5) looks to bounce-back from their 31-24 upset loss in Tampa Bay despite being a 6-point favorite in that game. The Saints have then played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss as a road favorite. New Orleans has also played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Saints defense allowed the Bucs to generate 455 yards of offense in that loss. But now New Orleans returns home where they held the Panthers to just 279 yards of offense back on December 3rd in their 31-21 victory. That does not seem to be a fluke when considering that the Saints only allowed 288 total yards in the first meeting between these two teams back on September 24th in their 34-13 victory. Those numbers average out to just 17 PPG along with 283.5 total YPG for Carolina in their two games against New Orleans this season — so the Saints defense looks poised to have a much better day. Additionally, while New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then played 23 of their last 38 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (107) and the New Orleans Saints (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (105) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (106). Buffalo (9-7) did their part to reach the AFC Playoffs last week with their 22-16 win in Miami as a 2.5-point favorite. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Buffalo’s defense did surrender 356 yards in that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. This Bills’ team has been vulnerable on defense when playing away from home. They allowed 24.6 PPG while surrendering 349.6 total YPG in their eight road games this season. Moving forward, Buffalo has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

Jacksonville (10-6) has lost two games in a row after their 15-10 loss at Tennessee. The Jaguars have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Jaguars defense did limit the Titans to just 229 yards of offense — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Now Jacksonville returns home where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total — and this includes playing four straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Jaguars have played 5 of these games Over the Total. Lastly, these two teams have played 5 straight games Over the Total in their last 5 meetings. 10* NFL Buffalo-Jacksonville O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (105) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Jacksonville (10-6) had nothing at stake last week but still played their starters in what ended up being a 15-10 loss in Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog. That setback should eliminate any chance of this team being overconfident in this game despite being a favorite but more than a touchdown. As it is, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. And while the offense managed only 232 yards of offense, Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. The Jaguars managed only 83 rushing yards in that game with Leonard Fournette handily a relatively light load by rushing the ball only 19 times for 69 yards. The good news for Jacksonville is that Fournette should be fresh for this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not rushing for more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Now the Jags return home where they outscore their opponents by +7.5 net PPG. The Jacksonville defense gets most of the attention — and they have been outstanding at home by holding their opponents to just 18.4 PPG along with only 283.7 total YPG. But the Jaguars offense has been strong at home where they are scoring 25.9 PPG while averaging 402.7 total YPG. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

Buffalo (9-7) is a surprise entry into the postseason as they needed a late and improbable Cincinnati comeback victory over Baltimore to make into the playoffs after they defeated the Dolphins in Miami by a 22-16 score as a 2.5-point favorite. But their best offensive player LeSean McCoy suffered an ankle injury in that game which makes him a game time decision for this contest. Even if he plays, McCoy is not likely to be close to 100% — and that is very tough blow for this offense of which he accounts for 33% of its production. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They were outscored this season by -3.5 net PPG this season while also being outgained by -52.6 net YPG. They were just 3-5 on the road where those disparities were even worse. Buffalo was outscored by -7.0 PPG on the road this year while being outgained by -64.1 net YPG. Lastly, this will be the Bills third straight game away from home which may contribute to their fatigue. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year on the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (103) and the Los Angeles Rams (104). Atlanta (10-6) enters this game having played five straight games that finished Under the Total after their 22-10 win over Carolina with that Total closing around 44.5. For some, that might be enough to trigger a contrarian Over bet — and I considered this angle for a lengthy time. But the damning case against that argument is that the Falcons specifically have played 7 straight games Under the Total after playing at least five straight Unders before that game. Atlanta plays underrated defense — they rank 9th in the NFL by allowing 318.4 total YPG. Over their last three games, they are limiting their opponents to just 312.0 total YPG after limiting the Panthers last week to just 248 yards of offense. The Falcons have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while they generated 371 yards of offense over Carolina, they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Atlanta will look to run the ball to keep the Rams offense off the field and exploit this vulnerability in the Los Angeles defense as they are allowing 122.3 rushing YPG which is 28th in the league. The Falcons have not scored more than 24 points in five straight games — so this a ball-control defensive-orientated team is what this team is become this season. They controlled the clock for 34:42 minutes last week against the Panthers in that must-win game. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 playoff games on the road, the Under is 3-1-1.

Los Angeles (11-5) rested their starters last week in a 34-13 loss to San Francisco. Yet their effort on defense had to be a disappointment for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips after seeing his defense surrender 463 yards to the 49ers. The Rams have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Additionally, not only have the Rams played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 21 points. On their home field, Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 11 home games as the favorite, the Rams have played 7 of these games Under the Total. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (103) and the Los Angeles Rams (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Atlanta (10-6) enters this Wildcard Playoff game playing as good of football as they have played all season after their 22-10 win at home over Carolina that clinched their spot in the playoffs. The Falcons have won three of their last four games to earn the opportunity to defend their NFC Championship. Playoff experience is a big advantage this team has when facing the Rams. This Atlanta team is underrated on the defensive side of the football. They held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG while limiting them to only 318.4 total YPG. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta did generate 371 yards against the Panthers defense — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 19 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Falcons have covered the point spread 13 times.

Los Angeles (11-5) rested their starters last week in their 34-13 loss to San Francisco. I am comfortable ignoring the results of that game. However, that was the Rams’ fourth loss at home this season where they are struggling to create a fervent local group of supporters. This has to be one of the weakest home field advantages that a playoff team has ever had when considering this franchise is relatively new again in Los Angeles. The Rams are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games at home — and this includes have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Looking deeper at the numbers, while the Rams outscored their opponents by +9.3 net PPG, they only outgained these opponents by +21.6 net YPG. The Los Angeles’ run defense ranks only 28th in the NFL by allowing 122.3 rushing YPG — and they allowing opposing rushers to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. While the Falcons will be without guard Andy Levier, they will have both their running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman healthy for this game after both backs have been dealing with injuries in the closing weeks of the season. Additionally, I think there is a significant edge for the Falcons with their head coach Dan Quinn and their quarterback Matt Ryan as compared to the Rams’ Sean McVay and QB Jared Goff. While McVay is being hailed as an offensive guru, he has never coached a playoff game while coming from an organization in Washington that is not a perennial playoff team. For my tastes, his head is buried in his iPad too often and I worry this will result in game management issues. When it comes to Goff, I am not convinced he has progressed beyond being a product of the McVay system. In clutch situations, Goff has not delivered this season — and I have been watching closely with their home losses to Philadelphia and Seattle being two examples of this. Furthermore, while this Rams team has an outstanding Special Teams, they will really miss one of the best place kickers in the league with Greg Zuerlein going on Injured Reserve to a few weeks ago. All these intangibles provide context for a football team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January — and this franchise has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. The Rams may win this game — but I expect a very close contest with this Falcons team that will be a tough “out” with their experience of playing in the Super Bowl last season. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

SUBSCRIBERS, PLEASE NOTE: I have upgraded this Kansas City play to a 20* selection (from a 10* play initially). Thanks, Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (101). Kansas City (10-6) has won four straight gams after their 27-24 upset win at Denver as a 3-point underdog. That was a great result for the Chiefs as they won the game to maintain their momentum going into the playoffs but did so while resting their key starters. Look for KC to play very well in this game as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Chiefs have been very good at home where they are 6-2 this season with an average winning margin of +7.2 PPG. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on their home field.

Tennessee (9-7) clinched a spot in the playoffs with their 15-10 win over Jacksonville last Sunday. The Titans only managed 232 yards of offense in that game but benefited from two Blake Bortles interceptions and a +3 net turnover margin to win that game. Tennessee did limit the Jaguars to just 229 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. This Titans team is being outscored by -1.3 net PPG while being outgained by -14.0 net YPG. On the road, it is even worse as Tennessee is being outscored by -6.4 net PPG while being outgained by -41.2 net YPG. The problem is Marcus Mariota and this Titans offense as they score just 17.5 PPG while averaging a mere 270.7 total YPG when on the road. Not surprisingly, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in ten of their last thirteen road games against teams with a winning record at home. 20* NFL Tennessee-Kansas City ESPN Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Kansas City (10-6) has won four straight games with their 27-24 win at Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. The Chiefs have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now this team returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 16.9 PPG. This Kansas City team scores 24.1 PPG on their home field — and that is 1.8 PPG lower than their 25.9 PPG seasonal average. They also only generate 343.1 total YPG which is over 30 YPG lower than their 375.4 total YPG mark. The Chiefs have played a decisive 44 of their last 63 games Under the Total on their home field. They also have played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 5 playoff games at home, Kansas City has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

Tennessee (9-7) clinched a spot in the AFC Playoffs last Sunday with their 15-10 victory over Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. The Titans eked out that game despite generating only 232 yards of offense. A +3 net turnover margin helped the Titans overcome their limited offensive effort in that game. Tennessee scores only 20.9 PPG while averaging just 314.0 total YPG — and those numbers drop to scoring just 17.5 PPG while averaging a mere 270.7 total YPG when on the road. The Titans defense did do a fine job of stopping the Jaguars offense last week as they managed only 229 yards of offense. In fact, the lone Jacksonville touchdown came from a fumble recovery returned for a 67-yards touchdown. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Titans formula for success in this game will be running the football to burn time off the clock which keeps the Chiefs’ offense off the field — and that is a great formula for the Under. Lastly, in their last 11 games played in the month of January, Tennessee has played 8 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (308) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (307). Atlanta (9-6) looks to bounce-back from their 23-13 loss in New Orleans last Sunday that snapped a two-game winning streak. The Falcons need a win here to clinch a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. Returning home will help after playing their last two games on the road. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they managed only 67 rushing yards last week, Atlanta has then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to rush for more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Falcons will also be playing with revenge on their minds from a 20-17 loss in Carolina back on November 5th — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when looking to avenge a loss by field goal or less in their last game against their opponent.

Carolina (11-4) will be watching the scoreboard during this game as confirmed by head coach Ron Rivera this week. It is very possible that Rivera will bench his starters if he sees that New Orleans looks destined to defeat the Buccaneers in a game that will be occurring at the same time. The Panthers are relegated to the 5-seed as the top Wild Card team if they cannot surpass the Saints to win the NFC South. The Saints are nearly a touchdown favorite on the road against a Tampa Bay team that has lost five straight games — and I do not like the Bucs enough to even take the points this afternoon. So I will not be surprised if the Panthers eventually throw in the towel in this game. As it is, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against NFC South opponents. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played in a dome. Carolina enters this game coming off their 22-19 win over the Buccaneers last week. The Panthers defense did show some vulnerabilities after allowing 392 yards of offense — and they are just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Carolina has been winning the turnover battle as of late — they have enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in three straight games. But the Panthers have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after having a +2 net turnover margin in two straight games. 25* NFL Sunday Afternoon Special Feature with the Atlanta Falcons (308) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) plus the points versus Tennessee Titans (312). Jacksonville (10-5) looks to rebound from their 44-33 upset loss at San Francisco last week despite being a 4-point favorite. The Jaguars have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after both a straight-up loss as well as after a point spread setback. Head coach Doug Marrone has indicated his team will play-to-win this game without resting their starters despite their slot in the playoffs locked-in. They need to get their defense in order after that rare bad game — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Jacksonville will be also playing with revenge on their minds after losing to the Titans back on September 17th by a 37-16 score. The Jaguars have covered then point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against fellow AFC South opponents. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. Additionally, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, Jacksonville has covered the point spread 5 times.

Tennessee (8-7) has lost three straight games with their 27-23 loss to the Rams at home last week. The Titans are meeting point spread expectations despite this slide as they have covered the point spread in two straight games as well as four of their last five contest. This Tennessee team needs to win this game to clinch a spot in the playoffs — but this group has been laying eggs for weeks so I do not expect them to step it up now. Their pass defense has been shredded there last two weeks by allowing 680 passing yards along with five TD passes. They surrendered 286 passing yards last week to the Rams — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They will face a hot Blake Bortles (!) who has thrown for almost 1300 passing yards over the last four weeks while tossing nine TD passes. Tennessee has not performed well relative to point expectations at home as they are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 28 games in the month of December, the Titans are 7-19-2 ATS. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) plus the points versus Tennessee Titans (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (331) and the Los Angeles Rams (332). Los Angeles (11-4) will be resting a few key players — including quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley — in this game with their slot in the NFC Playoffs as either the third or fourth seed secured. That means that the QB for this game will be Sean Mannion while the bell cow running back will be Malcolm Brown. While those names are not encouraging, the Rams defense should still be in good shape under defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. In fact, Phillips will want to see many adjustments made from the 41-39 game that the Rams won in the first meeting between these two teams back on September 21st. Los Angeles enters this game coming off their 27-23 win at Tennessee last week as a 5.5-point favorite. The Rams have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning a game on the road where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. Los Angeles has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Rams return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Los Angeles has also played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the Rams have played 6 of these games Under the Total.

San Francisco (5-10) has won four straight games with their 44-33 upset win over Jacksonville as a 4-point underdog. The Jimmy Garoppolo era is off to a fine start with the QB still undefeated as a starter after tearing up a very good Jaguars defense by completing 21 of 30 passes for 242 yards. While some bettors may expect another big day from the 49ers’ offense, I look for the San Fran defense to play much better this week as they look to build for next season. The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. And in their last 5 games against fellow NFC West rivals, the 49ers have played 4 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (331) and the Los Angeles Rams (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (320) plus the points versus the Washington Redskins (319). New York (2-13) has lost five straight games after their 23-0 shutout loss in Arizona last week. Many bettors were sky-high on the Giants in that game after their very good showing the previous week in a 34-29 loss at home to the Eagles. While we had the Cardinals in that game, look for the Giants to play better this week as they look to redeem themselves from being shutout last week as a 3-point underdog. New York also looks to avenge a 20-10 loss in Washington back on November 23rd. The Giants have not defeated a divisional rival this season — so a good effort this afternoon goes a long way to get the terrible taste in their mouth from this lost season. Eli Manning will likely play every snap with the team likely to look to resign him under new general manager Dave Gettleman. New York is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread win. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as the underdog. And while they have failed to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to top 75 rushing yards in two straight games. And in their last 13 games played in Week 17 of the regular season, the Giants have covered the point spread 9 times.

Washington (7-8) has won two straight games with their 27-11 win over Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. But the Skins have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. This franchise may be caught looking forward with the decision to retain head coach Jay Gruden with him and his staff being offered contract extensions. Their next decision regards what to do with QB Kirk Cousins. However, in the meantime, the Skins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against NFC East opponents. 10* NFL  Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (320) plus the points versus the Washington Redskins (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (315) and the Indianapolis Colts (316). Houston (4-11) has lost five straight games after their 34-6 loss to Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. The Texans managed only 227 yards of offense behind quarterbacks T.J. Yates and Taylor Heinicke — and the team will be without their All-World wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. As it is, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Texans have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. And in their last 10 games after failing to score at least 15 points, the Texans have played 8 of these games Under the Total. The team had to resign QB Josh Johnson off the streets this week with both their quarterbacks going through the concussion protocol this week. Yates has been cleared to start — but he completed just 19 of 47 passes for 211 yards and a QB Rating of 50.9 in his Houston has not scored a point in the first-half in their last two games — and they have then played 21 of their last 28 road games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first-half in two straight games. 

Indianapolis (3-12) has lost six straight games with their 23-16 loss in Baltimore last week in a game where they managed only 296 yards of offense. The Colts have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Indianapolis has also played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the month of December. Now Indy returns home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home against teams with a losing record on the road. With rumors that the franchise will not be retaining head coach Chuck Pagano, the team may mail in their effort this afternoon. As it is, the Colts have played 4 straight games Under the Total against AFC South rivals. Lastly, these two teams have played 8 straight games Under the Total when facing off in Indianapolis. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (315) and the Indianapolis Colts (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Philadelphia (12-2) returns home after playing their last three games on the road that culminated in a 34-29 win in New York over the Giants last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. The Eagles have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up victory. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Nick Foles seems capable of leading this team deep into the playoffs even after the injury to Carson Wentz. Foles completed 24 of 38 passes for 237 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the win over the Giants. The Eagles did surrender 504 yards to the Giants last week - but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 8 games played on Monday Night Football, Philadelphia has covered the point spread 6 times.

Oakland (6-8) has lost two straight games with their 20-17 loss to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. The Raiders are without left tackle Donald Penn for the rest of the season which will further derail a struggling offense that is scoring only 17.0 PPG away from home this season. Oakland is just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. The Raiders are also 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, this Oakland team is just 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 games in the month of December. 10* NFL Christmas Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (131) and the Philadelphia Eagles (132). Philadelphia (12-2) enters this game coming off a 34-29 win in New York against the Giants on the heels of a 43-35 win in Los Angeles against the Rams. Those two games went Over the Total by 22 and 31 points respectively which may make it tempting for some bettors to expect another Over tonight. There are a host of empirical situational angles that help inform my decisions that do not end up being documented in my Reports but I wanted to highlight this one that identifies the contrarian play regarding the Under with the Eagles. After the first month of the season in games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, when one team has played their last two games Over the Total by at least two touchdowns, these games finished Under the Total in 34 of the last 44 situations (77%) where these conditions applied. The Eagles should see a much better effort from their defense after giving up 64 combined points over their last two games. Philly has played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored — and they have also played 15 of their last 18 home games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, the Eagles have played 37 of their last 54 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored in two straight contests. Philadelphia has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after two straight wins on the road. Returning home after playing a rigorous three straight games on the road should help this defense. On their home field, the Eagles are allowing only 15.2 PPG along with just 278.3 total YPG — and they have not given up more than 24 points at home all season. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 11 of their last 18 home games Under the Total as the favorite which includes playing their last two games Under the Total when favored in the 7.5 to 14 point range.

Oakland (6-8) enters this game coming off their 20-17 loss to Dallas back on December 17th. The Raiders have then played a decisive 39 of their last 57 road games Under the Total after a loss at home. This team struggles to score when away from home. Oakland is averaging just 17.0 PPG while generating a mere 292.5 total YPG when on the road. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when on the road. And things are likely to get even tougher for Derek Carr and this offense with their Pro Bowl left tackle Donald Penn going on Injured Reserve with a foot injury. Penn will be missing his first game since the 2007 season after being a rock on the offensive line for this team. On the plus side, the Raiders are quietly playing much better on defensive side of the football. They are allowing only 334.3 total YPG over their last three contests. Lastly, Oakland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when on the road in the last four weeks of the regular season. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oakland Raiders (131) and the Philadelphia Eagles (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (130) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (129). Pittsburgh (11-3) has spent the week not only recovering from their loss to the Patriots and all that it means in terms of home-field advantage in the AFC Playoffs but they are also dealing with the fallout of Ben Roethlisberger throwing an interception on the goal line that could have won (and covered the point spread) in that game. We are on a nice run right now — but things have been helped by seeing close games like that turn our way as we had a big play on the Patriots. Critics who think Roethlisberger should have just spiked the ball should have their Pundit Cards revoked permanently. Ask any New England bettor — or any Patriots player or coach — and they will tell you that they were praying for that game to go into overtime. The opportunity to win that game on one play — on the darn goal line — must be seized. Yes, bad things can happen when one takes risks — and we will always remember that play or the Russell Wilson interception in the Super Bowl. But the fact remains that even a high-risk pass into the middle of the field rarely results in an interception. Sure, in hindsight, Big Ben should not have thrown into double-coverage. But it is also a fact that these same pundits (along with the entire Football Analytics community) would be applauding Roethlisberger for pulling a Dan Marino fake-spike touchdown pass (just like they always call for on Twitter!) if the play would have worked. Rant aside, I think the Steelers’ suffered what we call a Deflating Loss that will negatively impact them now on the road as a big favorite. As it is, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. They are also a mere 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Roethlisberger did have a good game against the Pats by completing 22 of 30 passes for 281 yards — but the Steelers have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games passing for at least 250 passing yards. Big Ben not having his superstar wide receiver Antonio Brown certainly does not help matters. Brown has simply been spectacular this year. Pittsburgh surrendered 283 passing yards to the Patriots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of December. Pittsburgh has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, the Steelers are just 1-3-1 ATS.

Houston (4-10) looks to bounce-back from a humiliating 45-7 loss at Jacksonville last week. The Texans could do almost nothing on offense as they managed only 186 yards against the stout Jaguars defense. But look for head coach Bill O’Brien to get his offense working better back at home. O’Brien seems to always be ravaged with injuries — and he is dealing with his third-string QB in T.J. Yates. But there is a reason that Houston is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Texans are also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they have not scored more than 16 points in four straight games, O’Brien’s team has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to score more than 17 points in at least two straight games. Defense has been a problem for this Houston team as well with injuries playing a big role — they are allowing 408.0 total YPG over their last three games. But Houston has covered the point spread in a decisive 19 of the last 24 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. 10* NFL Pittsburgh-Houston NBC-TV Special with the Houston Texans (130) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (129) and the Houston Texans (130). Houston (4-10) managed only 186 yards of offense last week in their 45-7 loss to Jacksonville as a 10.5-point underdog. Backup quarterback T.J. Yates managed to complete only 12 of 31 passes for 128 yards. The Texans have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Houston has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And the Texans have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Moving forward, Houston has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total in the month of December.

Pittsburgh (11-3) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their heartbreaking 27-24 loss to New England. The Steelers have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while Pittsburgh gained 413 yards in that game, they have then seen the Under go 13-4-1 in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Their offense will be without the dynamic Antonio Brown for this game — and the speedster has been catching almost every literal ball thrown his way this season. While the Steelers still have weapons on offense, losing someone of Brown’s immense talent is a big blow. The team is getting cornerback Joe Haden back in their secondary — and that will help shore up a pass defense that has been porous in his absence. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they have played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total. The Steelers have also played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. and in their last 11 road games as the favorite, Pittsburgh has played 9 of these games Under the Total. 10* NFL Christmas Day Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (129) and the Houston Texans (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (126) minus the points versus the New York Giants (125). Arizona (6-8) has lost four of their last six games after their 20-15 loss at Washington last week as a 4-point underdog. The Cardinals have bounced-back to win 27 of their last 40 games at home after a loss by 6 points or less. Arizona has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread setback. The team is turning back to QB Drew Stanton who is one of the better backups in the league. While the team has dealt with Blaine Gabbert under center, the Cardinals defense has been playing quite well. Since Week 10 of the regular season, Arizona is tops in NFL by allowing just 264.7 total YPG. During that span, the Cardinals are allowing just 183.7 passing YPG which is also best in the league — and they are third in the NFL by giving up only 81.0 rushing YPG.

New York (2-12) enters this game coming off their 34-29 win loss to the Eagles despite generating their highest scoring and yardage totals on offense since 2015. We had the Giants in that game as 7.5-point underdogs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while they gained 504 yards against the Eagles, the Giants have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 305 yards in their last game. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 10* NFL Giants-Cardinals Special with the Arizona Cardinals (126) minus the points versus the New York Giants (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (127) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (128). Seattle (8-6) might have experienced their most humiliating loss in the Pete Carroll era last week in their 42-7 loss to the Rams. The season began with locker room angst between the defensive and offensive units and while those issues appeared to have been put aside during the season, injuries have decimated their roster. Now that they are out of the playoff hunt, this Seahawks team is playing for pride. But I do expect that to be enough motivation for this team as they look to make amends to each other for last week’s terrible effort. Seattle is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have played two straight games Over the Total, they have then covered  the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing two straight games Over the Total. The team is getting back a healthier Bobby Wagner on defense who did practice this week after trying to take the field last Sunday. His presence on defense will be a big help. The Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. And in their last 29 games in the month of December, Seattle is 20-8-1 ATS.

Dallas (8-6) has won three games in a row with their 21-17 win in Oakland against the Raiders as a 3-point favorite. The Cowboys now get Ezekiel Elliott back after he completed his six-game suspension — and it looks like Dallas plans on giving him a ton of touches this afternoon. But the straw that stirs the drink is their left tackle Tyron Smith who is listed as questionable with the knee injury that has been slowing him down for the second-half of the regular season. Even if Elliott has been keeping in shape by running the beaches of the tropical locale from which he spent most of his suspension time, he might not have the endurance yet to be at 100% as he normally would be at midseason. As it is, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. The Cowboys have not enjoyed much of a home field advantage either in AT&T Stadium where they are just 3-4 this season while being outgained by -18.0 net YPG and being outscored by -1.1 PPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. 25* NFC Underdog of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (127) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (227) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (228) in the Hawai’i Bowl. Houston (7-4) travels to Hawai’i after their 24-14 win over Navy as a 6.5-point favorite back on November 24th. The Cougars have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars sport a strong defense that ranked 40th in the FBS by allowing just 23.0 PPG. They ave played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And Houston has played 5 straight games Under the Total against non-conference opponents.

Fresno State (9-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game in a 17-14 loss at Boise State as a 10-point underdog. The Bulldogs have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Fresno State has also played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Bulldogs have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, the Under is 5-0-1. This Fresno State team also has a very good defense as they are holding their opponents to just 17.2 PPG along with 319.0 total YPG which is 9th and 16th best in the FBS respectively. Expect a lower scoring game. 10* CFB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (227) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (228). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (110) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (109). Los Angeles (10-4) was dominant last week in their triumphant 42-7 win in Seattle over the Seahawks last week that avenged an earlier loss to their NFC West rivals. But I look for a letdown for this team as they travel east for this non-conference clash in a game where their body clocks will feel like it is 11 AM at kickoff. I also think this is a challenging test for the Rams to face this Titans team whose formula for success is winning the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football by outmuscling their opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee endured a tough injury this week when placekicker Greg Zuerlein was placed on Injured Reserve with a back injury. Zeurlein played an important role in the Rams having one of the top two Special Teams units in the NFL — and they will be experiencing a big drop-off when going to the inexperienced Sam Thickett whose best experience is kicking in college for Penn State. As it is, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. The Rams held the Seahawks to just 149 yards of offense — but they are then 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games are allowing no more than 250 yards in their last game. Furthermore, while LA gained 352 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 7 games in the month of December, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

Tennessee (8-6) looks to bounce-back from their 25-23 loss at San Francisco last week as a 2.5-point underdog. The Titans have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Now after playing two straight games on the road — as well as four of their last five away from home — Tennessee returns home where they are 5-1 this season. The offense improves greatly at home where the Titans average 26.0 PPG while averaging 376.7 total YPG. They also crank up their ground game as they average 151 rushing YPG along with 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry — and they will be facing a Titans’ team that allows opposing running backs to average 4.9 YPC when they are on the road. Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games on their home field. Together, these team trends produce our specific 43-15-2 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NFL Sunday Afternoon Special Feature with the Tennessee Titans (110) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (116) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (115). New Orleans (10-4) will be looking to avenge a 20-17 loss in Atlanta back on December 7th in this game. The Saints rebounded from that loss last Sunday with their 31-19 win over the Jets as a big 17.5-point favorite. New Orleans have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Saints generated 412 yards of offense in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now New Orleans gets the Falcons back at home in the Superdome where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. In his last four games at home against Atlanta, Drew Brees has thrown for 1358 passing yards along with seven TD passes — so don’t be surprised if the veteran QB has a big day this afternoon. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC South opponents.

Atlanta (9-5) has won five of their last six games with their 24-21 win in Tampa Bay. The Falcons secondary showed vulnerabilities in that game by allowing the Buccaneers to pass for 289 yards in that contest — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Atlanta also limited Tampa Bay to only 84 rushing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing no more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the biggest difference between this year’s Falcons and the one that made the run to the Super Bowl might very well be dropped passes. Led by Julio Jones’ seven drops, Atlanta leads the NFL in dropped passes. Last year, the Falcons led the NFL with only sixteen dropped passed combined amongst their wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. Perhaps the Regression Gods return to this team was inevitable when considering that they led the NFL the prior year with 32 drops. Those drops are most likely cost the team first downs. Lastly, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. 25* NFC South Game of the Year is on the New Orleans Saints (116) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Green Bay Packers (104). One final check of the weather indicates it will be cold in Green Bay tonight with temperature in the teens — but there should not be any snow with only a 10% chance of precipitation. Generally, these weather conditions lead to Overs as Green Bay (7-7) has played 6 straight games Over the Total in the month of December. The Packers enter this game coming off a 34-21 loss in Carolina last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Green Bay has then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, while the Packers gave up 387 yards in that loss to the Panthers, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Aaron Rodgers was placed on Injured Reserve after that game so it will be a Brent Hundley Joint tonight — but he has completed 69.1% of his passes over his last three starts while leading an offense that averaged 27 PPG. The Packers have played four straight games that finished Over the Total — and they have then played 11 of their last 14 games after playing at least two straight games that finished Over the Total. Additionally, Green Bay has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Packers have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total at home in Lambeau Field. And in their last 14 games as the underdog, Green Bay has played 11 of these games Over the Total.

Minnesota (11-3) has won nine of their last ten games after their 34-7 win over Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite last week. The Vikings have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after both a straight-up victory as well as after a point spread win. Additionally, Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. The Vikings held the Bengals to just 161 yards of offense in that game — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. This team is getting sensational play from Case Keenum who started the year as the likely 3rd string quarterback when Teddy Bridgewater returned from his torn ACL injury. Now Keenum has made himself a boat load of money — and he actually leads the NFL in Passer Rating since Week 10 this season. Lastly, Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games on the road Over the Total. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Green Bay Packers (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (104) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Green Bay (7-7) were eliminated from the playoffs last week after their 34-21 loss in Carolina. Now with Aaron Rodgers placed on Injured Reserve with this being a lost season, it would be easy to dismiss the Packers in this contest. But this proud Green Bay franchise has the opportunity to play spoiler against their rivals in the Vikings while avenging a 23-10 loss in Minnesota on October 15th. And this will be the final home game at Lambeau Field this year. The Packers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in the month of December. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge a loss to their opponents. And while the Packers have played their last two games on the road, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 62 games after playing their last two on the road. QB Brent Hundley has played significantly better before giving way to Rodgers return from Injured Reserve last week. Green Bay was 2-1 over Hundley’s last three starts with two of those games being on the road. The lone loss was a narrow 31-28 loss in Pittsburgh over the Steelers. In his last three starts, Hundley completed 65 of 94 passes for an impressive 69.1% completion percentage while tossing 6 touchdown passes to just one interception. He passed for 594 yards in those three games with a solid and improving 6.32 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average. Huntley also added 103 rushing yards over those last three games on 15 carries. He has helped the Packers play their last four games Over the Total — and they have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after playing at least three straight games Over the Total. Green Bay allowed 387 yards last week in Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 57 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest.

Minnesota (11-3) has won nine of their last ten games with their 34-7 win over Cincinnati last week. While this team is playing very well with Case Keenum ranked as the top statistical passer in the NFL since Week 10, asking them to cover the point spread of more than a touchdown on the road is simply too much to ask. The Vikings defense has been a bit more penetrable when on the road where they are allowing 21.7 PPG along with 312.6 total YPG as compared to their 17.3 PPG and 283.9 total YPG for the season. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games on the road as the favorite. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 10 games when playing on grass. Lastly, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to Green Bay to play the Packers at Lambeau Field. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (104) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (101) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (102). Baltimore (8-6) has won four of their last five games after their 27-10 win in Cleveland last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite. Now after covering the point spread in their last three games while playing their last two games on the road, the Ravens return home. It may be difficult for this Baltimore team to not be flat in this contest when considering that they are laying nearly two touchdowns. As it is, the Ravens are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Ravens are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Additionally, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. And in their last 6 games after playing their last two contests on the road, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

Indianapolis (3-11) has lost five straight games after their 25-13 loss to Denver as a 3-point underdog back on December 14th. Look for the Colts to play well with some extra days to prepare as they look to redeem themselves from that bad loss on national television. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, while Indy failed to generate more 228 yards against the Denver defense, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last contest. And in their last 29 games as a double-digit underdog, the Colts have covered the point spread in 18 of these contests. Hold your nose if you need to — but the sharp play here is to take all the points. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Baltimore NFL Network Special with the Indianapolis Colts (101) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (101) and the Baltimore Ravens (102). Baltimore (8-6) has won four of their last five games after their 27-10 win in Cleveland last Sunday. The Ravens have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Baltimore generated 376 yards in that contest — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens held the Browns to only 136 passing yards in that contest — but they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in the month of December. 

Indianapolis (3-11) has lost five straight games with their 25-13 loss to Denver as a 3-point underdog back on December 14th. The Colts have then played 24 of their last 35 road games Over the Total after a double-digit loss. Indianapolis has also played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road overall. And while the Colts allowed a whopping 462 yards to the Broncos in that loss, they have then played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Lastly, the Over is supported by an empirical angle that has been 78% effective one the last five seasons that is particularly on point for this situation. Indianapolis scores only 16.1 PPG while not having scored more than 17 points in five straight games — and in games involving a road team that does not score more than 17 PPG and who has to topped 17 points in two straight games, these games finished Over the Total in 28 of the last 36 situations where these conditions applied. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the  Indianapolis Colts (101) and the Baltimore Ravens (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (331) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (332). Tampa Bay (4-9) has lost three straight games with their 24-21 loss to Detroit last week in a pick ‘em game. The Buccaneers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Tampa Bay allowed 434 yards in that game — but they have then seen the Under go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Now the Buccaneers return home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total. Tampa Bay has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 23 games in the month of December, the Under is 15-7-1.

10* NFL play with the Under. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (332) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (331). Atlanta (8-5) enters this game after their triumphant 20-17 win over New Orleans two Thursdays ago. If you think this game looks eerily similar to last Monday night’s New England at Miami game, then you are not alone. The Falcons easily took care of the Buccaneers in the first meeting between these two teams back on November 26th in a 34-20 score in Atlanta. And with the rematch with the Saints in the Big Easy on deck this weekend, this Falcons team may be caught looking ahead. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after a home win against a divisional rival. And while Atlanta has won four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The Falcons held New Orleans to just 50 rushing yards last night — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Atlanta did suffer a -2 net turnover margin to the Saints in that victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after having a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Moving forward, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 32 games as the favorite.

Tampa Bay (4-9) has lost three straight games with their 24-21 loss to Detroit last week. The Buccaneers have not only failed to cover in those three games but they have only paid off bettors in two of their last seven contests. But Tampa Bay has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing at least three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. This Buccaneers team entered the season with high expectations. While this year has been ruined, they can still play the role of spoiler against a divisional rival which should motivate them to play well without the burden of high expectations. Tampa Bay did allow 434 yards to the Lions in that loss — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers did hold Detroit to just 53 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing at least 75 rushing yards in their last  game. Expect Tampa Bay to be inspired by the Miami Dolphins who pulled the upset last Monday night at home as the underdog against another divisional rival that played in last February’s Super Bowl. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (332) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (330) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (329). Oakland (6-7) looks to bounce-back from their 26-15 loss in Kansas City last week against what now appears to be a resurgent Chiefs team after their upset win over the Chargers last night. While the Raiders are likely out of the AFC playoff picture, they can still play the role of spoiler while playing well in front of a nationally televised crowd. Oakland has not covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Raiders have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a divisional rival. And while they allowed the Chiefs to rush for 165 yards last week, they are then 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game.

10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Oakland plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (329) and the Oakland Raiders (330). Dallas (7-6) looks to build off their 30-10 win in New York against the Giants last week. The Cowboys have found their offense again as they dialed up 454 yards of offense behind a rushing attack that generated 122 yards of offense. Getting Tyron Smith healthy again at left tackle has made a big difference for this team as they have rushed the ball 73 times over their last two games for 304 rushing yards. Rushing the football tonight will keep the clock moving and help our Under tonight. As it is, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after they gained at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys stay on the road where they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total. Additionally, Dallas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC. And in their last 9 games in the month of December, Dallas has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

Oakland (6-7) looks to bounce-back from their 26-15 loss at Kansas City last week as a 4.5-point underdog. The Raiders have then played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Oakland is playing better on defense. Over their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 19.0 PPG along with just 297.3 total YPG. Now the Raiders return home where they have played 4 of their last games Under the Total. Oakland has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on grass. And in their last 5 games in the month of December, the Raiders have played 4 of these games Under the Total. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (329) and the Oakland Raiders (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (327) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (328). San Francisco (3-10) secured their second straight upset victory with their 26-16 win at Houston as a 1-point underdog. The 49ers seemed to have found their answer at QB with Jimmy Garoppolo under center as he completed 20 of 33 passes for 334 yards with a touchdown pass. Hey, Garoppolo is undefeated as a starter in the NFL with his victory over the Bears two weeks ago along with two starts with New England last September when Tom Brady was serving his Deflate-gate suspension. But before Garoppolo is inducted into the Hall of Fame, lets remember that he is playing for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. And while the 49ers generated 416 yards of offense last week, they are just 11-24-1 ATS in their last 36 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now San Fran returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the 49ers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 14 games in the month of December, San Fran is 4-9-1 ATS.

Tennessee (8-5) looks to bounce-back from a very flat effort last week when they were upset in Arizona by a 12-7 score as a 2.5-point favorite. The Titans have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after suffering an upset loss. Tennessee has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. The team stayed out west this week for this game — and I heard Mike Munchak proclaim that it was his team’s best week of practice this week. The Titans need to get back to their foundation of running the football after they managed just 65 rushing yards last week after generating 198 yards on the ground the previous week against the Titans. Tennessee is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The defense is playing very well — they have registered 20 sacks over their last three games. Lastly, the Titans have covered the point spread in 48 of their last 76 games against teams from the NFC. 10* NFL Tennessee-San Francisco Side Special with the Tennessee Titans (327) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (325) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (326). Pittsburgh (11-2) has had this date circled since the league office put out the schedule as they are looking to avenge last year’s 36-17 loss in New England in the AFC Championship Game. But the timing for their opportunity for revenge could not be worse. For starters, the Steelers have gutted through two very difficult games against AFC North rivals. After the their very physical game against the Bengals two weeks ago, Pittsburgh rallied from an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter to eke out a 39-38 victory over Baltimore. Recovering from this stretch is difficult enough. As it is, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And in their last fifteen games after facing their arch rival in the Ravens, Pittsburgh has lost eight of these games straight-up. The mental and physical toll of those two games will be difficult to sustain now — especially with all the pressure this team feels to step up for this game given the words of head coach Mike Tomlin over the last few weeks. A big emotional letdown may happen for this team. While they have won eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning eight of their last ten games. Furthermore, this Steelers’ defense is far from at full strength. The season-ending injury to Ryan Shazier takes away their best defender of short and intermediate routes that this Patriots team absolutely thrives in with tight end Rob Gronkowski leading the way. In the seven quarters this team has played since losing Shazier in the Bengals game, Pittsburgh has allowed 48 points and 654 yards. Even worse, the Steelers have allowed their opponent to score a touchdown in all six of their Red Zone appearances since that Shazier injury — as opposed to not allowing a TD in thirteen of their previous twenty-five Red Zone defensive situations. Pittsburgh is also missing cornerback Joe Haden with his broken fibula who was their best cover man in their secondary. Over their last three games without Haden, the Steelers defense has allowed 28.7 PPG along with 357.7 total YPG. Haden is listed as questionable for this game but is not likely to be close to 100% even if takes the field which will leave the Pittsburgh pass defense still vulnerable after Joe Flacco torched them for 269 yards and a 7.69 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Pittsburgh has allowed their last two opponents to average 6.09 and 6.77 Yards-Per-Play without Haden and Shazier (for all but one quarter) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing each of their last two opponents to average at least 6.0 YPP. On offense, Big Ben Roethlisberger did complete 44 of 66 passes for 506 yards against the Ravens last week — but the Steelers have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while the Steelers have not covered the point spread in their last three contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games.

New England (10-3) should be angry and focused after they were flat on Monday in their 27-20 loss in Miami despite being a 10.5-point favorite. Casinos have been built on bettors leaving this Patriots team for dead in the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady era. New England is 42-18-1 ATS in their last 61 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games after a point spread setback. And I am not worried about the short week when considering that the Patriots are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on a Sunday after a game on Monday Night Football. Brady will be very happy to see Gronkowski return to the field after he served his suspension last week. New England managed only 248 yards against the Dolphins while only rushing the ball to 10 times for a measly 25 yards. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after failing to generate at least 350 yards in their last game. Brady should bounce-back as he thrives when facing a Mike Tomlin defense. When facing a team with Tomlin as either head coach or defensive coordinator, Brady has thrown 26 touchdown passes and only one interception — and that TD to interception ratio is a perfect 22-0 with Tomlin the head coach with the Steelers. Brady has won ten of his twelve career starts against Pittsburgh. Take last year’s AFC Championship Game where Brady faced a Cover-2 or Cover-3 zone defense in 39 of his 43 drop-backs. If the defense cannot create immediate pressure on Brady, he just picks the defense apart by finding voids in the zone defense. He completed 32 of 42 passes last year against the Steelers playing zone in 91% of his drop back passes. Like I said, Pittsburgh will really miss Joe Haden. On defense, this team is substantially better than they were in the first month of the season. Over their last three games, the Patriots are allowing only 15.7 PPG along with only 283.7 total YPG even after last week’s loss to the Dolphins where they allowed 362 yards (helped by having the football for over 36 minutes). New England’s seasonal defensive numbers or the analytics at sites like Football Outsiders simply fail to capture the quality of this unit at this point of the season (because they are unwilling and/or unable to the need for subjective analysis to their “objective” formulas that originate from subjective weighting systems). Lastly, the Patriots are very reliable in situations like this. New England has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as the favorite. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. The Pats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at least at 49.5. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, New England has covered the point spread in 5 of these games. The end. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (325) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (326). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (324) minus (or plus) the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (323). Los Angeles (9-4) had a golden opportunity last week with a 4-point lead and the ball facing an Eagles team having to rely on their backup quarterback — and they blew their chance to seize control of the NFC Playoff race by losing by a 43-35 score to Nick Foles and Philadelphia. The stat guys over at Football Outsiders remain undismayed as their laptops still rate the Rams their top team in the NFL. Perhaps is because they have yet to find a formula to measure how teams respond to pressure. In this area, both quarterback Jared Goff and head coach Sean McVay (too often busy looking for more offensive plays than managing the game) are unproven commodities — and they are both at a huge disadvantage when playing on the road against Super Bowl Champions in QB Russell Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll. The Rams put up great efficiency numbers which they combine with an elite and complete Special Teams unit. And I do appreciate the Football Outside folks taking Special Teams seriously. But efficiency numbers do not tell the entire story (as that crew is beginning to realize in the face of Time of Possession numbers that are confounding their predictions). And it is hard to for teams to rely on big plays out of their Special Teams from week-to-week. The Rams blew that game with the Eagles despite earning a touchdown from a blocked punt last week. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in five of their last eight games on the road with the Total falling in that range. LA has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. They are just 8-18-1 ATS when playing of turf that rewards speed. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of December. Furthermore, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC West opponents. And while this team is looking to avenge a 16-10 loss to Seattle at home back on October 8th, they have then failed to cover the point spread when playing with same-season revenge in 40 of those last 56 opportunities.

Seattle (8-5) looks to bounce-back from their 30-24 loss in Jacksonville last week. The Seahawks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up loss. Now this Seattle team returns home where they looked so good two weeks ago in defeating the supposed invincible Eagles (who just beat this Rams team). The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games after playing a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. Seattle’s defense has allowed 425 and 414 points in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games. Wilson needs to play better after throwing three interceptions last week. But Wilson also threw for 271 yards and added another 50 yards on the ground — and the Seahawks are 24-8-3 ATS in their last 35 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Lastly, Seattle is 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games in the month of December. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (324) minus (or plus) the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (308) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). Philadelphia (11-2) bounced-back from their 24-10 loss in Seattle with a defiant 43-35 win on the road in Los Angeles against the Rams. The team have accrued a Pyrrhic Victory when considering that their star quarterback Carson Wentz suffered a season-ending knee injury in that game. I think Nick Foles will fill in just fine for Wentz — but he does not have the incredible, elite play-making skills that Wentz has displayed this season. This is an awfully tough situation for the Eagles to maintain their intensity for a third straight week after two straight grueling games. Even worse for this team, this will be their third straight week on the road as well as their fourth game in their last five away from home. With Wentz going down after the team already lost offensive lineman Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks for the season, this Philly team has lost some of their best talent on both sides of the football. There are warning signs that this team is beginning to crack. They have committed six turnovers over the last three weeks while committing 28 penalties. They have covered the point spread in nine of their last ten games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games after covering the point spread in at least four of their last five games. Additionally, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on field turf. And in the last 11 road games as the favorite laying 7.5 to 10 points, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games.

New York (2-11) saw the triumphant return of Eli Manning to their starting lineup under center last week but it was the same ole Giants as they lost to the Cowboys by a 30-10 score as a 4-point home underdog. Somehow, I see head coach Steve Spagnola and Manning to lead this team to be very competitive as they try to play the role as spoilers in this contest. New York is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. And while the Giants have lost three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing at least three straight games. Lastly, in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, New York has covered the point spread 6 times. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (308) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (320) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (319). Arizona (6-7) has won two of their last three games after their upset 12-7 win over Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog. We had the Cardinals in that game — but this team looks due for a letdown having to travel out east for this early kick off where their internal body clock will feel like it is 10 AM. As it is, Arizona is just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Cardinals did hold the Titans to just 204 yards of offense in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing less than 205 lads in their last game. Arizona is also just 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. The Cards have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. And Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record.

Washington (5-8) was embarrassed last week in Los Angeles where they lost by a 30-13 score to the Chargers as a 6-point underdog. That was the second straight loss for this injury riddled Skins team. But Kirk Cousins is still healthy at quarterback — and he is the heartbeat of this team. Washington has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after suffering two straight losses. Defense has been an issue as they allowed 314 passing yards last week to the Chargers. But the Skins have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while they have allowed 68 combined points in their last two losses, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight games. Lastly, Washington has covered the point spread in 6 off their last 9 games played on the last four weeks of the regular season. Together, these team trends produce our specific 68-19-2 ATS combined angle for this situation. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Kickoff with the Washington Redskins (320) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (314) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (313). Miami (6-7) pulled off their second straight upset on Monday — and they played their best game in years — by picking off the Patriots as 10.5-point underdogs in their 27-20 victory as a 10.5-point underdog. The Dolphins are prime candidates for a big letdown in this spot after such an emotional win. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a Sunday on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Now this team goes on the road — and in the cold for these South Beachers with the temperate currently at 27 degrees as of this writing this morning — where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games away from home. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.

Miami (7-6) survived the blizzard last week by eking out a 13-7 win in overtime over the Colts. The good news for this team this week is that QB Tyrod Taylor has been upgraded to probable to take the field after going through the concussion protocol. Without Taylor available last week and in those challenging weather conditions, the Bills passed for only 92 passing yards — but they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. Buffalo did rush for 227 yards in that game led by LeSean McCoy who seems to love rushing in cold conditions —and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Bills have not scored more than 16 points in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after failing to score at least 17 points in three straight games. Lastly, Buffalo is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Buffalo Bills (314) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). Los Angeles (7-6) has won four straight games — as well as seven of their last seven games — with their 30-13 win over Washington last Sunday as 6-point favorites. The Under is then 25-9-1 in the Chargers last 35 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Los Angeles has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And in the Chargers’ last 4 games after not allowing more than two touchdowns, the Under is 3-0-1. Since Week Five, their defense has held opposing quarterbacks to the second lowest Passer Rating in the league. And since Week 11, the Chargers boards the best scoring defense in the league by allowing just 13.3 PPG. LA did generate 484 yards in that game behind Philip Rivers — but the Under is then 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Chargers go back on the road where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total. And in their last 8 games against fellow AFC opponents, Los Angeles has played 7 of these games Under the Total.

Kansas City (7-6) enters this game coming off a 26-15 win over Oakland last week as a 4.5-point favorite. The Chiefs had scored 31 points the previous week in their 38-31 loss in overtime in New York against the Jets — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Kansas City got their defense going again in that contest by holding the Raiders to just 268 yards. The Chiefs stay at home where they have played a decisive 42 of their last 61 games Under the Total. Additionally, KC has played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 15 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the game finished Under the Total 12 times. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) plus (or minus) the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). Kansas City (7-6) was once the toast of the league early in the season when they rattled off five straight victories — and we were bearish on them then. But now most bettors have jumped off the ole bandwagon as they have lost six of their last eight games while also only covering the point spread twice over those last eight contests. But that is an overreaction as well — and this Chiefs team should be very feisty in this rare situation where they are a home underdog. To make things even saltier for this Kansas City team, they are underdogs at home to a Chargers team that they have defeated seven straight times. I like what I saw with this Kansas City team last week where they defeated the Raiders by a 26-15 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage helped the Chiefs get back to their winning ways — perhaps the entire team responded to the message head coach Andy Reid sent when he suspended starting cornerback Marcus Peters for losing control the previous week when he tossed an official’s penalty flag into the crowd. Rookie Kareem Hunt broke out of his slump by rushing the ball 25 times for 116 yards while adding another 22 yards in the air. The Chiefs rushed for 165 yards against the Raiders which helped them control the clock for 36:40 minutes — and they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. KC held Oakland to just 70 rushing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 90 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chiefs ave covered the point spread in 5 straight games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And in their last 9 games against AFC West opponents, the Chiefs have covered the point spread 8 times.

25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs plus (or minus) the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (303) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (304). Chicago (4-9) built some momentum for themselves last week with their 33-7 upset win in Cincinnati as a 6-point underdog. The Bears controlled the clock for this game as they had the football for 38:09 of this game which helped them churn out 482 yards of offense. This Time of Possession advantage helped them keep the Bengals off the field — and Cincy had just 234 yards of offense in that contest. Running back Jordan Howard ran the ball 23 times for 147 yards and two touchdowns — and this will be the formula for success against the Lions for this game. Detroit allows 116.3 rushing YPG which is 20th in the league. QB Mitch Trubisky is also playing better football as he gets more experience as the starter. Over his last two games, Trubisky has a nice 113.9 Passer Rating — and he is facing a Lions’ defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to dial up a strong 99.6 Passer Rating against them over their last six games. With the Chicago offense stabilizing, their strong defense can flex their muscles. For the season, the Bears rank 11th in the NFL by allowing only 325.5 total YPG. On the road, Chicago is giving up 15.8 PPG along with 317.2 total YPG. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. Chicago is also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. The Bears will be playing with revenge from a 27-24 loss in Detroit back on November 19th. Chicago is still 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Lions which suggests this will be another close game.

Detroit (7-6) enters this game coming off their 24-21 win in Tampa Bay last Sunday. But the Lions are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Detroit did generate 434 yards of offense in that game — but they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Lions defense surrendered 440 yards to the Bucs who averaged 6.1 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP. Detroit returns home where they are just 2-4 this season while being outgained by -43.8 net YPG. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home in Ford Field. Lastly, Detroit is just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games in the month of December. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (303) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (303) and the Detroit Lions (304). Detroit (7-6) enters this game coming off their 24-21 win in Tampa Bay last week in a pick ‘em game. QB Matthew Stafford was outstanding in that contest as he completed 36 of 44 passes for 381 yards — but the Lions have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. But despite that nice offensive effort, Detroit is scoring only 22.3 PPG over their last three games. One of the concerns for the Lions is their inability to run the football as they rank last in the league by averaging only 76.3 rushing YPG. Over their last four games, Detroit has not rushed for more than 78 yards — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in four straight games. On the other side of the football, the Lions allowed 267 passing yards to the Bucs in that victory — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Detroit has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

Chicago (4-9) enters this game coming off their 33-7 win in Cincinnati last Sunday as a 6-point underdog. The Bears have then played 17 of their last 26 ames Under the Total after a double-digit upset victory as an underdog. The Bears controlled the clock for this game as they had the football for 38:09 of this game which helped them churn out 482 yards of offense. This Time of Possession advantage helped them keep the Bengals off the field — and Cincy had just 234 yards of offense in that contest. Chicago won the first down battle in that contest as well by a 29-14 margin — and they have then played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where they dominated Time of Possession by holding the ball for at least 34 minutes while also generating at least 24 first downs. Additionally, the Bears have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after outgaining their opponents by at least +150 net yards. With the Chicago offense stabilizing, their strong defense can flex their muscles. For the season, the Bears rank 11th in the NFL by allowing only 325.5 total YPG. On the road, Chicago is giving up 15.8 PPG along with 317.2 total YPG. The Bears will need their defense to shine in this one when considering that they score only 16.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 314.8 total YPG. Chicago has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 range. The Bears have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents. Lastly, Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — including five of their last seven games Under the Total when an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 25* NFL NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (303) and the Detroit Lions (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (302) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (301). Indianapolis (3-10) has lost four straight games after they lost in Buffalo on Sunday in that blizzard by a 13-7 score in overtime. The Colts did show grit in that game by rallying from those challenging conditions to tie the game in the 4th quarter to force overtime. The Colts have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games after a straight-up loss. Indianapolis has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last contest. Indy managed only 227 yards of offense in that setback on Sunday — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. This Colts team has still covered the point spread in 29 of their last 39 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 15 appearances on Thursday Night Football, Indianapolis is 12-2-1 ATS.

Denver (4-9) snapped their eight-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-0 shutout upset win over the Jets as a 1-point underdog. Look for this Broncos team going absolutely nowhere this season to suffer a letdown on this short week. As it is, they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Denver is also 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. To compound matters, the Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game, Denver is just 0-3-1 ATS. Now the Broncos go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 7 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread 6 times. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with Indianapolis Colts (302) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (301) and the Indianapolis Colts (302). Denver (4-9) snapped their eight-game losing streak on Sunday with their 23-0 shutout win over the Jets as a 1-point home underdog. The Broncos held the Jets to just 100 yards of offense. Denver has been a disaster on offense as they have not been able to develop a quarterback between Trevor Siemian, Payton Lynch and Brock Osweiler — but the Broncos defense remains outstanding. Despite little help on offense in staying off the field, the Denver defense remains number one in the league by holding their opponents to just 280.5 total YPG — and they rank 2nd in the NFL in passing defense (191.1 passing YPG) and 4th in the league in rushing defense (89.5 rushing YPG). The Broncos held the Jets to just 41 passing yards last week — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Denver has also played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Broncos have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Denver has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 28 games as the favorite, the Broncos have played 19 of these games Under the Total.

Indianapolis (3-10) looks to bounce-back from their 13-7 loss in the blizzard in Buffalo on Sunday as a 3.5-point underdog. The Colts have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. QB Jacoby Brissett managed to complete only 11 of 22 passes for 69 yards in that game — and Indianapolis have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 150 yards in their last game. While the snowy conditions made it difficult for both offenses in that game, the fact remains that this Indy offenses lack weapons at the skill positions as well as a decent offensive line to protect a backup albeit promising quarterback in Brissett. The Colts are 30th in the NFL by scoring 16.3 PPG — and they are 31st in the league by averaging just 290.7 total YPG. Now Indianapolis returns home where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total. The Colts have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 27 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Colts have played all 5 games Under the Total. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (301) and the Indianapolis Colts (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (134) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (133). New England (10-2) enters this game coming off their 23-3 win in Buffalo last Sunday. But the team will be without tight end Rob Gronkowski in this game which takes away Tom Brady’s security blanket. Brady’s numbers are markedly better with Gronkowski on the field. In his career, Brady completes 66% of his passes while averaging a robust 8.0 Yards Per Passing Attempt with a 5.29:1 touchdown to interception ration and a QB Rating of 79. But in games without Gronkowski, Brady sees those numbers drop to a 62% completion percentage with a 7.0 YPA mark and a 2.95:1 TD to interception ratio and a QBR of 63. Furthermore, South Beach has not been Brady’s favorite place to play as the Patriots are scoring just 23.8 PPG in his fifteen starts in Miami while Brady has gotten sacked 32 times while throwing 13 interceptions. Brady was also limited in practice this week after taking some shots to the body by the Bills — and this game shapes up to be very physical after the Dolphins were very chippy a few weeks ago in their 35-17 loss in New England back on November 26th. Moving forward, the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record on the road.

Miami (5-7) looks to build off their 35-9 win over Denver last week as a 1-point underdog. The Dolphins are then 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. The Miami offense has steadily improved this season. They generated 367 yards against a still solid Broncos defense last week — and they are then 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Over their last three games, the Dolphins are scoring 25.2 PPG while averaging 349.0 total YPG. Some of the improvements on offense has been the improved play of QB Jay Cutler. But  some of this success can be attributed to the development of second-year running back Kenyon Drake. The former Alabama player ran the ball 23 times last week for 120 yards. Miami looks to avenge their loss to the Patriots a few weeks ago back on their home field where they are holding their visitors to just 20.8 PPG along with only 286.0 total YPG. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 4 games in the month of December, Miami has covered the point spread all 4 times. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted Deal with the Miami Dolphins (134) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (133). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (133) and the Miami Dolphins (134). New England (10-2) enters this game coming off their 23-3 win in Buffalo last Sunday. The Patriots have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. New England generated 435 yards of offense in that contest with the Bills — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The team will be without tight end Rob Gronkowski in this game which takes away Tom Brady’s security blanket. Brady’s numbers are markedly better with Gronkowski on the field. In his career, Brady completes 66% of his passes while averaging a robust 8.0 Yards Per Passing Attempt with a 5.29:1 touchdown to interception ration and a QB Rating of 79. But in games without Gronkowski, Brady sees those numbers drop to a 62% completion percentage with a 7.0 YPA mark and a 2.95:1 TD to interception ratio and a QBR of 63. Furthermore, South Beach has not been Brady’s favorite place to play as the Patriots are scoring just 23.8 PPG in his fifteen starts in Miami while Brady has gotten sacked 32 times while throwing 13 interceptions. New England has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home The Patriots have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on grass. And in their last 5 games in the month of December, New England has played 4 of these games Under the Total.

Miami (5-7) enters this game coming off their 35-9 upset win over Denver last week as a 1-point underdog. The Dolphins have then played 32 of their last 49 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Miami plays much better defense on their home field where they are limiting their opponents to just 20.8 PPG along with only 286.0 total YPG. The Dolphins have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Together, these team trends produce our specific 70-26 combined angle for this situation. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (133) and the Miami Dolphins (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.