At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (475). THE SITUATION: New York (4-3) has won three games in a row with their 13-10 win as the technical road team against the New York Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 30-13 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York is rounding into form with Zach Wilson under center with three straight victories and a 3-0-1 ATS mark in their last four games after their push against the Giants. Despite all the criticism he receives, the Jets have a 9-7 straight-up record with Wilson as their starting quarterback. He has not thrown an interception in four of his last five games which puts his defense in a position to win games. The Jets have an outstanding defense that ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). They are allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have held their last three opponents to 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.0 PPG. New York has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. The Chargers offense is banged up. Quarterback Justin Herbert is getting better but his left thumb is not 100% which impacts his ability to take snaps under center. Even worse, Herbert is missing two of his top three targets with wide receiver Mike Williams out the season and now Joshua Palmer on the injured list with a knee injury. That means more playing time for rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston — but while he oozes with talent, he has struggled learning an NFL playbook after only running routes on one side of the field when starring at TCU. And don’t underestimate the impact of the loss of center, Corey Linsley, to a heart issue to this offense. With cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets can slow down Keenan Allen and force Herbert to use his targets that were fourth or lower on the depth chart in training camp. My biggest question for the Chargers in my deep dive in the offseason was whether Brandon Staley is really a genius — or was his brilliance all simply stemming from the fortune of having Aaron Donald roaming the line of scrimmage back when he was defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. Staley was the defensive coordinator for the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl-winning team — and his aggressive man defense was successful because Donald could consistently generate pressure on the quarterback without the need for blitzes. But with a force in the middle like Donald for the Chargers, Staley’s defenses have been below average. Los Angeles has ranked 23rd and 20th in total defense the last two seasons with run defense being the biggest problem as they have ranked 30th and 28th in the NFL by allowing 138.9 and 145.8 rushing YPG. Overcompensating to slow down the pass has not been effective without a player of Donald’s talent. Staley was only a defensive coordinator for one year with the Rams before being given the Chargers job. His reputation as being a brilliant mind seems to be cemented by his reliance on The Analytics to justify his fourth-down aggressiveness. The underlying truth that is presumed whenever The Analytics are invoked to absolve coaches like Staley from showing their work as to why going for it on fourth down at your own 25-yard line actually improves win probabilities — just trust the good people at NextGen and ESPN who do not have any ulterior motives to sell snake oil. But after overseeing his team blow a 27-point lead to Jacksonville in the playoffs, we should wonder if some of these analytics companies promoting the “revolution” are not the only con artists in this story. Staley cannot get his side of the ball right — and he compounds that problem by consistently getting outmaneuvered in the game management department. Justin Herbert tends to bail him out — but we are left to wonder how much Staley is holding back the immense talent that his quarterback possesses. The Chargers rank 28th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN).

FINAL TAKE: On the road, Los Angeles is getting outscored by -4.3 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -41.3 net Yards-Per-Game due to their porous defense that is allowing 433.0 YPGG which is resulting in 27.3 PPG for their home hosts. The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 30-13 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite last Sunday night. New York (4-3) has won three games in a row with their 13-10 win as the technical road team against the New York Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers might have played their best defensive game of the season last week by holding the Bears to just 295 total yards of offense. In theory, a defense that sports linebackers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack along with safety Derwin James should be pretty good. They have held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or less. But the offense only scored 17 points in two straight games before taking advantage of the suspect Bears defense last week. This Los Angeles offense is banged up. Quarterback Justin Herbert is getting better but his left thumb is not 100% which impacts his ability to take snaps under center. Even worse, Herbert is missing two of his top three targets with wide receiver Mike Williams out the season and now Joshua Palmer on the injured list with a knee injury. That means more playing time for rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston — but while he oozes with talent, he has struggled learning an NFL playbook after only running routes on one side of the field when starring at TCU. And don’t underestimate the impact of the loss of center, Corey Linsley, to a heart issue to this offense. The Chargers have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 6 straight Unders after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Los Angeles has also played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football including their last four appearances. New York has played 15 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less. The Jets won their previous game by a 20-14 score against Philadelphia — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by six points or less. They had covered the point spread in three straight games before their push last week — and they have played 6 straight Unders after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. New York has an outstanding defense that ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). With cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets can slow down Keenan Allen and force Herbert to use his targets that were fourth or lower on the depth chart in training camp. They are allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have held their last three opponents to 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.0 PPG. But the offense remains limited with Zach Wilson under center. They have not scored more than 20 points in five of their seven games — and they have scored 13 or fewer points thee times. They are last in the NFL with only 102 first downs on the season. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total —  and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games —  and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (473) and the Cincinnati Bengals (474). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-3) has won three games in a row after their 24-18 win against Tampa Bay as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (4-3) is also on a three-game winning streak after their 31-17 upset win at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills are only averaging 21.0 Points-Per-Game since Week Five — and quarterback Josh Allen is dealing with a bum shoulder going into this game. Allen did pass for 324 yards in the game — but his team has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where they passed for 300 or more yards. Buffalo’s defense stepped up last week by holding the Buccaneers to just 302 total yards — and Tampa Bay only got to 18 points from a fortunate fourth down play late in that game (that ruined our Bills play against the spread). While the Buffalo defense is dealing with injuries to Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, they are still effective on that side of the field this season. They are holding their opponents to just 326.1 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 17.0 Points-Per-Game. They have held their last three opponents to 327.7 total YPG and 18.7 PPG which takes into account their defensive injuries. The Bills have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Additionally, they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, Buffalo has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total during Weeks Five through Nine. Cincinnati certainly has their mojo back on offense after Joe Burrow was dealing with a nagging calf injury from the summer. But while the Bengals are scoring 27.3 PPG with Burrow putting up big numbers, they are only generating 331.3 total YPG during that span. It is in big games like this where the loss of running back Samaje Perine in the offseason in free agency may reveal itself. Burrow’s return to full health has helped take some pressure off the Cincinnati defense — they have held their last three opponents to 16.7 PPG. The Bengals return home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45 or higher. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Toal with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the Total set in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total when hosting the Bills. 20* NFL Cincinnati-Buffalo NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (473) and the Cincinnati Bengals (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be the Buffalo Bills (473) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (474).THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-3) has won three games in a row after their 24-18 win against Tampa Bay as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (4-3) is also on a three-game winning streak after their 31-17 upset win at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati certainly has their mojo back on offense after Joe Burrow was dealing with a nagging calf injury from the summer — and the Bengals are the popular choice tonight for the betting public and experts that consider themselves “sharps” tonight. But while the Bengals are scoring 27.3 PPG with Burrow putting up big numbers, they are only generating 331.3 total YPG during that span. It is in big games like this where the loss of running back Samaje Perine in the offseason in free agency may reveal itself. Cincinnati looks great after their upset win against the Niners last week — but two items that contextualize that upset victory. First, San Francisco was less than full strength in that game missing Trent Williams, arguably the best left tackle in the world, and wide receiver Deebo Samuel who seems to be the critical piece for quarterback Brock Purdy to succeed in the passing game. Second, the 49ers still outgained the Bengals last week by +60 net yards after piling up 460 total yards against them (even without Williams and Samuel). And while that was just the third upset victory by double-digit by Cincinnati in the last three years, they have failed to cover the point spread all 3 times in their next contest. They return home where they are favored by three points or less for just the fourth time in three seasons — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those games. I think the bettors are neglecting to appreciate just how important this game is for the Bills given the emotions around the Damar Hamlin. Admittedly, Buffalo has been inconsistent this season — but while many decry their flat performances, there are two things I find encouraging about this team when it comes to big games like this. First, they are not trying to win the Super Bowl in September. I think the team was wound up way too tightly last year as if they could quickly resolve the anguish of losing that epic playoff game to Kansas City in the final 12 seconds two years ago. That sentiment was embodied by offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey’s meltdown when the offense failed to execute on a fourth down play that cost them their game in Miami. Head coach Sean McDermott called out his team’s lack of intensity in the preseason — and they have been flat in a few games in the regular season. But after a highly emotional year, playing the long game is sensible. They will be up for this game. Second, while they were lethargic against the New York Giants for that prime-time game earlier this year, their ability to commit and then execute a four-minute and eight-minute offense by sticking with their running game is precisely the missing ingredient this team has lacked the last few seasons. Buffalo has not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 8 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight contests. Committing fewer turnovers would certainly help their cause — they have lost the turnover battle in three straight games. The Bills have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after posting a -1 or worse net turnover margin in three straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: While the Buffalo defense is dealing with injuries to Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, they are still effective on that side of the field this season. They are holding their opponents to just 326.1 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 17.0 Points-Per-Game. They have held their last three opponents to 327.7 total YPG and 18.7 PPG which takes into account their defensive injuries. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 48 of their last 77 games against teams not allowing more than 17.0 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 35 games against those teams in the second half of the season. We were on the Bengals that Monday night game that got canceled — I think they were on the way to winning and covering as an underdog. Now the script has flipped with Buffalo the underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Buffalo Bills (473) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 43-30 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-1) has won two games in a row with their 38-31 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas comes off perhaps their best game of the season where they gained 24 first downs and had their offense on the field for 35:28 minutes. Controlling the time of possession will be the formula for success against the Eagles to keep the Cowboys' defense fresh — this is the expressed reason why head coach Mike McCarthy parted ways with previous offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to take over the play-calling himself. As it is, Dallas has played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 24 or more first downs and held on to the football for at least 34 minutes. The Cowboys have generated 6.45 Yards-Per-Play and 6.10 YPP in their last two games — but they have then played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after averaging 6.0 or more in two straight games. Dallas has scored 30 or more points in all three of their games at home — but it has been a different story on the road. They scored two non-offensive touchdowns in their opening 40-0 win in New York against the Giants — but they have only scored 56 combined points in their next three games on the road.  But this stout Cowboys defense should have something to prove after giving up 40 points in San Francisco a few weeks ago. Dallas ranks third in the NFL in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now residing at FTN). They have not allowed more than 92 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have then played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total on the road after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. Philadelphia has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored 30 or more points — and they have played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Eagles have also played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after a win against a division rival by seven points or less. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 40 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. And while the Eagles gave up 472 total yards to the Commanders last week, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 9 of their last 10 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (455) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (456). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-2) has won five of their last six games after their 24-20 win against Cleveland as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (6-2) has won three games in a row after their 31-24 victory at Arizona as a 10-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ravens handled the Cardinals despite a sluggish effort where they got outgained by -42 net yards after their offense only managed 268 total yards of offense. Baltimore has then failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning three or more games in a row. The Ravens have scored 69 combined points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last contest. Seattle has improved their defense by acquiring Leonard Williams from the New York Giants at the trade deadline. Head coach Pete Carroll also reunited with pass rusher Frank Clark who he drafted out of Michigan before he went on to win Super Bowls with Kansas City. He was an unsigned free agent this year. This Seahawks defense had already held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or less. The Ravens average 143 rushing Yards-Per-Game — but Seattle has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 61 games in the second half of the season against teams who average 130 or more rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points — and Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (455) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). THE SITUATION: Miami (6-2) has won three of their last four games after their 31-17 victory against New England as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (6-2) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 24-9 loss at Denver as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes was under the weather last week which goes a long way to explain why he completed only 24 of 38 passes for 241 yards and the Chiefs managed to score only nine points against the Broncos' defense that was torched by the Dolphins for 70 points. But the Kansas City offense has not been as efficient this season even before that game. Besides tight end Travis Kelce, the wide receiving corps has not been reliable since they are dropping too many passes in a trend that started in their opening game against Detroit. The Chiefs have scored 23 or fewer points in five of their eight games. Look for Kansas City to attempt to get their running game going to slow down the Miami offense and keep them off the field after failing to rush for 96 yards in four straight games. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two or more games in a row. They have also played four of their last five games Under the Total when coming off a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in November. Kansas City can afford to slow this game down because they have the best defensive unit in the Patrick Mahomes era. They have not allowed more than 24 points all season — and they have held six of their eight opponents to 20 or fewer points. The Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now housed at FTN) rank the Chiefs' defense as the fifth best in the league. They rank second in the league by holding their opponents to just 287.8 Yards-Per-Game. They held the Broncos to just 87 passing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Kansas City also ranks second in the league in sacks — and pressure on the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa is the way to slow down the Miami offense. Tagovailoa has only won once in his seven games in the NFL when sacked four or more times. Don’t be surprised if head coach Mike McDaniel leans heavily on the running game against this Chiefs defense playing without injured linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay. The Dolphins have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They held the Patriots to just 141 passing yards last week — and they have played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Miami defense will be ready for this showdown with this being the healthiest they have been on that side of the ball all season. It will be interesting to see what defensive coordinator Vic Fangio dials up — especially with a healthy cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Dolphins have held five of their eight opponents to 21 or fewer points. Miami has played  13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Frankfurt weather may not agree with those expecting a shootout in this game — the temperature is in the 50s but with winds at 16 miles per hour and a good chance of some rain (not great for the Chiefs' already slippery hands). The Dolphins have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field — and Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on grass. 10* NFL Miami-Kansas City Germany O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (309) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (310). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-23 upset victory at home against Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped after their 20-10 loss to Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans will be sending out a rookie quarterback in his second career game in Tennessee’s Will Levis tonight. The former Kentucky quarterback played well against a Falcons defense that seemed unprepared for his strong arm — he completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins caught three of those touchdown passes but he is dealing with a toe injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. Levis will be playing against the best defense he faced in this Steelers unit led by T.J. Watt. The Titans only manage to generate 240.0 YPG on the road which is resulting in just 12.5 PPG. Tennessee has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset win as a home underdog. They go back on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders. The Titans have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game last week with a rib injury — but he is off the injury report and plans to play tonight. The Steelers offense has been maligned all season for its direction under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Canada seems reluctant to take the training wheels off this offense like using wide receivers in a motion to attempt to make things more difficult on opposing defenses. Neither Pickett nor Trubisky had the authority to audible at the line of scrimmage last season — despite both having experience changing plays in their previous stops. Schematically, the Steelers' offense is simply not difficult to defend. The Pittsburgh defense keeps them competitive — they rank as the ninth-best defensive unit in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. The Steelers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Pittsburgh stays at home where they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Tennessee has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when the Total is listed in the 35.5-42 point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (309) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped after their 20-10 loss to Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tennessee (3-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-23 upset victory at home against Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game last week with a rib injury — but he is off the injury report and plans to play tonight. Even if he cannot play the entire game, Mitch Trubisky is a solid backup — he completed 10 of 16 passes for 73 yards in relief last week against the Jags. The Steelers offense has been maligned all season for its direction under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Admittedly, Canada seems reluctant to take the training wheels off this offense like using wide receivers in a motion to attempt to make things more difficult on opposing defenses. Neither Pickett nor Trubisky had the authority to audible at the line of scrimmage last season — despite both having experience changing plays in their previous stops. I am not going to defend Canada — but the Steelers getting back wide receiver Dionte Johnson from injury last week really helps since it gives them a second viable target alongside George Pickens. Johnson was targeted 14 times last week — he had eight catches for 85 receiving yards. Pittsburgh has the opportunity to find success in their ground game against this Titans defense that has allowed at least 139 rushing yards in three straight games. Tennessee is allowing 157.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. On a short week, the Steelers should play well tonight when considering they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 home games after a loss by ten or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. The Steelers' defense keeps them competitive — they rank as the ninth-best defensive unit in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. With a healthy T.J. Watt on the field, the Steelers have a 12-5 straight-up record in those last 17 games. Now Watt and company face a rookie quarterback in his second career game in Tennessee’s Will Levis. The former Kentucky quarterback played well against a Falcons defense that seemed unprepared for his strong arm — he completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins caught three of those touchdown passes but he is dealing with a toe injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Titans go back on the road where they are winless in their four games this season while getting outscored by -10.0 PPG and getting outgained by -130.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Tennessee only manages to generate 240.0 YPG on the road which is resulting in just 12.5 PPG. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have failed to cover the point spread in all three of the games on the road in head coach Mike Vrabel’s tenure when the Total was set in the 35.5-38 point range. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams from the AFC North. And while the Steelers are only averaging 271.7 total YPG this season, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not averaging more than 285 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (279) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-4) had won two games in a row before their 30-12 upset loss at home to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-2) was on a four-game winning streak before their 38-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Time for my weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams — and I can certainly envision that the Lions come out tonight and blow the doors off a bad Las Vegas team as they take out their frustrations from getting embarrassed last week against Baltimore. But this Raiders team is feisty when Jimmy Garoppolo is healthy and under center. Like Jared Goff, he is a veteran who has played in the Super Bowl. He has one of the best wide receivers in the game to throw to in Davante Adams. Las Vegas has one of the best pass rushers in the game in Maxx Crosby. The Raiders' defense has been playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 289.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 20.0 Points-Per-Game allowed. They held the Bears to only 323 yards last week — and one of the Bears touchdowns was from a 39-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Chicago only passed for 150 yards in that game — and Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 150 yards in their last game. Garoppolo did not play last week but he has been cleared to play this week. He has to cut down on his turnovers — he has already thrown eight interceptions which has played a big role in the Raiders’ ranking last in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. This would be a great time for Las Vegas to get running back Josh Jacobs going — and while the Lions have been surprisingly good against defending the run this season, the Ravens perhaps exposed them by rushing for 146 yards last week. While I think the Detroit run defense is improved from the group that ranked 29th in the NFL last season, I think their current number two ranking in rushing Yards-Per-Game allowed speaks more to their opponents' rushing abilities and their abandoning the run given the game script or success in the passing game. The Raiders have not rushed for at least 100 yards all season — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after not rushing for 100 or more yards in four or more games in a row. Detroit dug themselves a big hole last week which required Goff to throw 53 passes last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games after a game where they had 50 or more pass attempts. The Lions are dealing with a host of injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is a strength of this team — but they are missing starting left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow for this game. Running back David Montgomery is also out who has been serving as their bell cow back. They are only scoring 22.7 PPG in their last three games. The defense has lost cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Gardner-Johnson along with pass rusher James Houston — and they still have a long injury list that challenges their depth.

FINAL TAKE: Back to numbers, this remains a Detroit team that has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Head coach Dan Campbell and company would be very happy with a win by a touchdown or less. Expect a closer-than-expected game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with Las Vegas Raiders (279) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-4) had won two games in a row before their 30-12 upset loss at home to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-2) was on a four-game winning streak before their 38-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders have not scored more than 21 points all season — and they have failed to score more than 17 points in all but two of their games. One of the things I realized in my epic fail in taking the Las Vegas-Green Bay Over three weeks ago is that head coach Josh McDaniels does not have much confidence in his offense. Even in the first half, McDaniels was instructing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to burn the play clock close to zero on each play on offense. McDaniels probably does not have much faith in his defense either — so keeping that unit as fresh as possible is a priority. The Raiders' game plan will likely be to slow the game down, keep things close, and perhaps Garoppolo and Davante Adams can steal this game. Las Vegas did hold the Bears to only 323 yards last week — and one of the Bears touchdowns was from a 39-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Garoppolo did not play last week but he has been cleared to play this week. He has to cut down on his turnovers — he has already thrown eight interceptions which has played a big role in the Raiders’ ranking last in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. They suffered a -3 net turnover margin last week — and Las Vegas has played 5 straight games Under the Total after posting a -3 or worse net turnover margin. They have also played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after a game where they had a -3 or worse net turnover margin. This would be a great time for Las Vegas to get running back Josh Jacobs going — and while the Lions have been surprisingly good against defending the run this season, the Ravens perhaps exposed them by rushing for 146 yards last week. While I think the Detroit run defense is improved from the group that ranked 29th in the NFL last season, I think their current number two ranking in rushing Yards-Per-Game allowed speaks more to their opponents' rushing abilities and their abandoning the run given the game script or success in the passing game. As it is, the Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. Las Vegas ran the ball only 14 times for 39 yards against the Bears — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for 50 or more yards. And while they got outgained by 134 net rushing yards last week, they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Detroit has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They did not score in the first half against the Ravens — and they have played 6 straight Unders after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. The Lions are dealing with a host of injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is a strength of this team — but they are missing starting left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow for this game. Running back David Montgomery is also out who has been serving as their bell cow back. They are only scoring 22.7 PPG in their last three games. Detroit allowed a whopping 503 yards last week with Baltimore generating 9.15 Yards-Per-Play — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 12 games against teams from the AFC, Detroit has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 45.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (278) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (277). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (2-4) has lost two games in a row with their 31-17 loss at Kansas City as a 6-point underdog on Sunday. Chicago (2-5) won for the second time in their last three games with a 30-12 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is a train wreck under head coach Brandon Staley who I was fully convinced was going to be let go last season so the organization could write a big check for Sean Payton to come in to steward the golden years of Justin Herbert in the league. And I will probably go on tilt sometime this evening when Staley claims “The Analytics” (always hidden from view to demonstrate what the numbers are actually saying, but never advanced without even the slightest of doubt) justify going for another 4th-and-one on the Chargers’ 20-yard line. But this play is in large part fading a rookie quarterback playing in his road game after never playing Division I college football. Tyson Bagent did everything that was asked of him last week in his first professional start by completing 21 of 29 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions. But a deeper look at those numbers indicates that the former Shepherd College quarterback averaged just 2.0 air yards per pass attempt — and his longest pass was only 15 air yards. He only passes for 162 yards overall for a meager 7.71 yards per completion average. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy had the element of surprise in his favor last week against Las Vegas — but now the Chargers will have game tape and it will be clear to everyone that they can stuff the box while playing press coverage against the Bears’ wide receivers to dare the rookie to throw the ball downfield. Bagent has potential — he made a very good impression in the Senior Bowl and should have been drafted. He had offers to transfer to an FBS program but elected to stay loyal to Shepherd College and bet on his talent. Good for him! But this will be the first time he plays in a hostile environment in a football stadium of more than 20,000 (OK, granted, it’s SoFi Stadium where Bears fans might outnumber Chargers fans — but this is new territory and Chicago is not likely to “Let Tyson Cook” in these circumstances). The Los Angeles defense has been a major disappointment under head coach Brandon Staley — but they are getting burned mostly in the passing game where they rank last in the league by allowing 310 passing YPG. The Chargers are a solid defensive team against the run as they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 10th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 96.8 rushing YPG. With Justin Fields out again this week, the Bears are going to focus on the road — and that plays into the strength of the LA defense that will feel comfortable having their safeties creep into the box. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after failing to pass for more than 150 yards. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 48 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two games in a row. And while the Chargers have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers run the ball more tonight to take the pressure off of Herbert who is struggling lately. But on the plus side, the Chargers are allowing 22.7 PPG in those three games — a drop of -3.1 PPG from their season average. Los Angeles has played three straight Unders — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing two or more Unders in a row and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after playing three or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 home games when favored in the 7.5-10-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (278) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-5) won for the second time in their last three games with a 30-12 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-4) has lost two games in a row with their 31-17 loss at Kansas City as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears only gained 323 yards against the Raiders — but they held them to just 335 yards while posting a +3 net turnover margin. Chicago has found a winning formula by running the football which is helping their keep their defense fresh. The Bears have not allowed more than 20 points in three straight games — their last three opponents are generating only 281.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. Not coincidentally, they have run the ball at least 31 times in four straight contests which is helping them burn time off the clock. In their last three games, they are averaging 33:07 minutes per game on offense after posting a 34:06 time of possession mark against the Raiders last week. This will be the strategy against the Chargers’ Justin Herbert — especially with a rookie quarterback under center playing in his first road game. Tyson Bagent did everything that was asked of him last week in his first professional start by completing 21 of 29 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions. But a deeper look at those numbers indicates that the former Shepherd College quarterback averaged just 2.0 air yards per pass attempt — and his longest pass was only 15 air yards. He only passes for 162 yards overall for a meager 7.71 yards per completion average. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy had the element of surprise in his favor last week against Las Vegas — but now the Chargers will have game tape and it will be clear to everyone that they can stuff the box while playing press coverage against the Bears’ wide receivers to dare the rookie to throw the ball downfield. Bagent has potential — he made a very good impression in the Senior Bowl and should have been drafted. He had offers to transfer to an FBS program but elected to stay loyal to Shepherd College and bet on his talent. Good for him! But this will be the first time he plays in a hostile environment in a football stadium of more than 20,000 (OK, granted, it’s SoFi Stadium where Bears fans might outnumber Chargers fans — but this is new territory and Chicago is not likely to “Let Tyson Cook” in these circumstances). The Los Angeles defense has been a major disappointment under head coach Brandon Staley — but they are getting burned mostly in the passing game where they rank last in the league by allowing 310 passing YPG. The Chargers are a solid defensive team against the run as they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 10th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 96.8 rushing YPG. With Justin Fields out again this week, the Bears are going to focus on the road — and that plays into the strength of the LA defense that will feel comfortable having their safeties creep into the box. As it is, Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset victory by 14 or more points. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers run the ball more tonight to take the pressure off of Herbert who is struggling lately. After passing for 939 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions in his first three games this season, he has only thrown for 650 yards in his last three games with a surprisingly low 57% completion percentage with four touchdown passes but four interceptions. Los Angeles is scoring generating 311.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in only 19.3 PPG. But on the plus side, the Chargers are allowing 22.7 PPG in those three games — a drop of -3.1 PPG from their season average.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have only played one Under this season — but the likely limitations on Bagent will impact the game script of this contest. Los Angeles has played a decisive 61 of their last 100 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after allowing 7.67 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Chargers have played 50 of their last 77 home games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 20-10 win at home against Arizona as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (4-2) has won two games in a row with their 39-38 victory at Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Seattle defense has stepped up since the return of Jamal Adams from injury which has allowed them to play a big nickel scheme with three safeties on the field. They have only allowed 30 combined points in their last three games with their opponents averaging just 237.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 168 passing yards in their last three games — and none of their last three opponents have totaled more than the 249 yards that the Cardinals managed last week. Seattle’s run defense has vastly improved as well from last season when they allowed 150.2 rushing YPG and ranked 30th in the league. This season, they are holding their opponents to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in only 87 YPG on the ground. This is a very good sign for a Pete Carroll-coached team as the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in three straight games. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in the last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 58 games after posting a -1 or worse turnover margin in two straight games. The Seahawks stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 38 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Cleveland got outgained by -140 net yards last week to the Colts used a fumble recovery in the end zone to overcome that production deficit to pull out that game. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by three points or less. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis offense exposed the Cleveland defense by generating 456 yards last week. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after giving up 450 or more yards in that contest. After an outstanding start to the season, the Cleveland defense has taken a step back as they have allowed 27.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. I do worry about Seattle quarterback Geno Smith throwing against the Browns’ man coverage — he performs better against zone schemes. That said, wider receiver Tyler Lockett is expected to play this afternoon — and there have not been many games this season where DK. Metcalf, rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Lockett have all been healthy and on the field together this season. Running back Kenneth Walker III is off the injury report as well after not practicing for most of the week — and he should have success against a faltering Browns’ run defense that has allowed their last three opponents to average 136 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC. And then there is Cleveland having to rely on P.J. Walker under center given the lingering injury issues to Deshaun Watson. Walker only completed 15 of 32 passes for 178 yards with an interception last week. He has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last four appearances going back to last season. In his two games this year, he is completing only 50% of his passes while averaging a mere 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has thrown three interceptions in 66 throws. He has a QBR of 48.2 this year. He leads a Browns team that has failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 59 road games from Week Five to Week Nine.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (257) and the Washington Commanders (258). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-1) comes off a 31-17 win against Miami as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (3-4) has lost four of their last five contests after their 14-7 upset loss at New York against the Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders only managed to gain 273 yards against the Giants’ defense last week. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Washington went into halftime of that game without a point and trailing by 14 points — and they have then played 41 of their last 65 games Under the Total after going into halftime trailing by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Commanders have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. Washington has allowed 403.0 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three contests. Their defense is getting to the quarterback — they have registered at least three sacks in four straight games. The Commanders return home where they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 41 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Philadelphia held the explosive Dolphins offense to just 244 total yards last week. They have not allowed more than 249 yards in three straight games — and they have then played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two or more games in a row. The Eagles have also played 8 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on October 1st with Philadelphia winning by a 34-31 score — and the Commanders have played 27 of their last 42 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (257) and the Washington Commanders (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (110) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 29-25 upset loss at New England as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Tampa Bay (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 16-13 upset loss to Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 31 games at home when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. The Bills defense is banged up with the loss of cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano being the most impactful. But the Buffalo defense simply needs to execute better — and facing a one-dimensional offense that struggles to run the ball should help this short week. Buffalo still ranks as the fourth-best team in the league using the advanced DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss.
The Buccaneers only gained 329 total yards against the Falcons last week. They are only generating 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They rank just 24th in Offensive DVOA using the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay’s problems begin with their lack of a rushing game — they are only averaging 78 Rushing YPG with a 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry average. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt an offensive line that was already in a precarious state after they did not resign left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Shaq Mason in the offseason. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been resilient — but he is being asked to bail the team out too often on third down. They have only rushed for 46 and 74 yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a Thursday night. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (110) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 16-13 upset loss to Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 29-25 upset loss at New England as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers only gained 329 total yards against the Falcons last week. They are only generating 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They rank just 24th in Offensive DVOA using the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay’s problems begin with their lack of a rushing game — they are only averaging 78 Rushing YPG with a 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry average. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt an offensive line that was already in a precarious state after they did not resign left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Shaq Mason in the offseason. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been resilient — but he is being asked to bail the team out too often on third down. The Buccaneers' defense is solid — they are only allowing 17.3 PPG and they rank 12th in the league in Defensive DVOA. Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up loss. Buffalo only gained 339 total yards in their loss on the road to the Patriots last week. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has been a significant drop-off as a play-caller and leader of the offense from previous OC Brian Daboll. This offense is too dependent on big plays — but the explosiveness with this offense has declined perhaps because Dorsey's reliance on 11 personnel (with three wide receivers) is too predictable. The Bills are scoring 19.7 PPG in their last three games. Don’t be surprised if Buffalo commits to running the football early in this game. I suspect this was a mandate from head coach Sean McDermott at halftime the previous week in their Sunday night game against the New York Giants when they rallied from a 6-0 halftime deficit to win the game by a 14-9 score. The ability to execute long drives was very encouraging for this team long-term — but going into half-time trailing by a 13-3 score to the Patriots last week led them to abandon their running game behind bruising running back Latavius Murray. Buffalo averages 31 rushing attempts per game at home as opposed to 23 rushes on the road — and their 138 rushing YPG at home helps them average 33:01 minutes per game on offense McDermott needs to address his side of the ball after Mac Jones passed for 272 yards with the struggling New England offense generating 364 total yards against them. The Bills defense is banged up with the loss of cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano being the most impactful. But the Buffalo defense simply needs to execute better — and facing a one-dimensional offense should help this week. While the Patriots averaged 6.74 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Bills have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a favorite

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 33 of their last 54 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (473) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-1) had their five-game winning streak snapped in their 19-17 upset loss at Cleveland as an 8.5-point road favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 19-13 victory at Chicago on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Injuries played a significant role in San Francisco’s loss to the Browns last week — and rookie Jake Moody missing a game-ending field goal resulted in the defeat. The Niners will be without wide receiver Deebo Samuel tonight but the reports this afternoon indicate that Christian McCaffrey will take the field tonight. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their six games this season, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. This remains the best team in the NFL that leads the league with a +16.2 net Point Differential — and they rank number in Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. On offense, they are scoring 30.7 PPG and rank second in Offensive DVOA. On defense, they are holding their opponents to 14.5 PPG and 278.0 total YPG — and they rank fourth in Defensive DVOA using the Football Outsiders metrics. They have allowed the fewest Big Plays (rushing gains of 10 or more yards and passing gains of 20 or more yards) in the league — and opposing quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of 67 against them. They have won the turnover battle in two straight contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after posting a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games against NFC opponents. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win against an NFC North rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a victory by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Bears last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Vikings were a prime candidate for a letdown this season after going an incredible 11-0 in one-possession games last year. The Regression Gods have made their presence felt as all six of their games have been decided by eight points or less. Their only wins are against the lowly Carolina Panthers and Chicago. They have given the ball away 13 times in their six games — and the 49ers are the wrong team to offer up extra possessions. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Fading home underdogs on Monday Night Football can be dangerous — but we are talking about Kirk Cousins who has a career 2-10 straight-up record on MNF with 11 interceptions in those contests. Cousins also has a 13-41 straight-up record when playing against playoff teams (which the Niners will most likely be). Missing the injured wide receiver Justin Jefferson leaves the Vikings without their best player — and the 49ers have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 49 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (473) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Minnesota Vikings (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-1) had their five-game winning streak snapped in their 19-17 upset loss at Cleveland as an 8.5-point road favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 19-13 victory at Chicago on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Injuries and losing the time of possession battle played a significant role in the 49ers' upset loss last week with both Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey being knocked out of that game against the Browns. Samuel is out tonight — but McCaffrey is expected to play. San Francisco’s offense was only on the field for 26:57 minutes in that contest — but that unit should win the time of possession battle tonight against a Vikings team that does not run the ball. The 49ers had scored at least 30 points in five straight games before confronting the tough Cleveland defense that may be the best in the NFL. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total between Week Five through Week Nine. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Minnesota has played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the Vikings have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win against an NFC North rival. They have also played 15 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Minnesota only rushed for 46 yards last week after rushing for 70 yards the previous week in their loss to Kansas City. They have not run the ball more than 24 times in any game this season — and they have rushed the ball 18 times or less in three of their games. Overall, they are averaging only 19 rushing attempts per game which is translating to their offense being on the field for only 26:14 minutes per game — and that means both teams will likely have more possessions in this game. The Vikings have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after not rushing for 100 or more yards in two straight contests. Minnesota’s offense has scored at least 17 points all their games this season — and wide receiver K.J. Osborn has played well stepping up for the injured Justin Jefferson. But the Vikings are surrendering 25.0 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota returns home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 7 straight games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Minnesota Vikings (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). THE SITUATION: Miami (5-1) has won two games in a row with their 41-21 victory against Carolina as a 14-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 20-14 upset loss in New York against the Jets last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami flexed their muscles on both sides of the ball last week as they gained 444 yards en route to their 41 points while holding the Panthers to just 296 yards of offense. The Dolphins have played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after a win at home by 21 or more points. Additionally, they have played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring 40 or more points. Miami has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. The Dolphins won their previous game by a 31-16 score at home against the New York Giants — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by 14 or points. Turnovers have been an issue for this team as they have lost the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two or more games in a row. Philadelphia has played 28 of their last 42 home games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. The Eagles have only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Philly has held their last two opponents to 244 and 239 total yards — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after holding two straight opponents to no more than 250 total yards.

FINAL TAKE: The temperature is expected to be in the 40s tonight with winds in the 15 miles per hour range which will impact Tagovailoa’s deep shots. Miami scored 24 and 20 points in their games at New England and Buffalo this season — with their other four games either at home or in sunny Los Angeles in early September. The Eagles will certainly get their ground game going to burn the clock and keep the explosive Dolphins offense off the field. Philadelphia has played 40 of their last 60 home games Under the Total played in October. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 20-14 upset loss in New York against the Jets last Sunday. Miami (5-1) has won two games in a row with their 41-21 victory against Carolina as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia held the Jets to just 244 total yards — and they outgained them by +104 net yards. But a -4 net turnover margin did the Eagles in. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after suffering a -4 or worse net turnover margin last week. Now the Eagles return home where quarterback Jalen Hurts has won 12 of his last 13 starts with 32 touchdown passes to just six interceptions — and he posted a 102.8 Passer Rating in those last 13 starts at home. Much has been said about the Philly offense being out of sync. While I do think the transition from previous offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who took the head coaching job with Indianapolis, to new OC Brian Johnson explains why they are not in full-playoff mode from last season, this offense has still been effective. The Offensive DVOA numbers by the Football Outsiders rank this unit as the seventh most efficient in the league. They have scored 25 or more points in four of their six games while putting up 34 points twice. For some context, the Eagles scored more than 24 points just three times in their first six games last season — and only one of those six games saw them score more than 29 points. The signing of veteran wide receiver Julio Jones will help since he gives Hurts a pair of reliable hands as a third wide receiver. And while right tackle Lane Johnson was on the injury report earlier in the week, he is expected to play tonight. Hurts has thrown as many interceptions already this season as he did all of last year — but playing at home should help settle him down. By the way, some of this rise in interceptions is simply from Hurts being asked to throw the ball more early on. His 213 pass attempts are 29 more than his number after six games last year — almost five more pass attempts per game. Lincoln Financial Field will be rocking tonight — Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored by seven points or less. Miami comes off a cushy two-game home stand against the New York Giants and Carolina who they beat by 15 and 21 points respectively. But the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row at home by double-digits. And while their dynamic offense scored 31 and 42 points in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. Miami has taken full advantage of their easy early schedule — their five victories were against teams who began the day with a combined 5-24 record. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a 99 Passer Rating. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Establishing a pass rush on Tua Tagovailoa to make him uncomfortable is essential — the Dolphins have a 3-6 record when he is sacked three or more times while having a 1-4 record when he is sacked at least four times. Philly ranks seventh in the NFL by averaging 3.3 sacks per game.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins' lone loss this season was in the northeast to begin the month where Buffalo beat them by a 48-20 score. The temperature is expected to be in the 40s tonight with winds in the 15 miles per hour range which will impact Tagovailoa’s deep shots. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in Weeks Five through Nine. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (458) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (457). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-2) has won two of their last three games with their 24-16 win against Tennessee in London as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 20-6 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore went into halftime with an 18-3 lead last week which was the third straight game where they went into halftime leading by at least a touchdown. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after leading at halftime by seven or more points in three straight games. And while they have played four straight Unders, they have then covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after playing four or more Unders in a row. Baltimore is fourth in the NFL by allowing only 15.2 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their opponents by +78.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Detroit stays on the road for a second straight week having covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 road games after winning two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (458) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset loss at home to Washington as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-6 loss at home to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta dominated the Commanders in terms of yardage last week — they outgained them by +209 net yards with the Falcons generating 402 yards while allowing just 193 yards. A -3 net turnover margin did them in. Atlanta has lost the turnover battle by more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse turnover margin in two straight games and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after losing the turnover in three straight games. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. Quarterback Desmond Ridder has an 0-4 record in his NFL career in his four starts on the road — and he is overseeing an offense that is scoring just 10 Points-Per-Game in those contests. And yet Atlanta is a road underdog getting less than a field goal in many spots — a very fishy line given the Ridder’s road struggles. For the record, Ridder did complete 22 of 33 passes in a start on the road against Baltimore last season — so his road issues are probably being overplayed a bit. Atlanta is 7-7 ATS in their 14 road games as an underdog (not a losing trend) — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games as an underdog getting up to three points. The Falcons are outgaining their opponents by +52.8 net Yards-Per-Game. Head coach Arthur Smith’s emphasis on running the football has helped his defense play surprisingly well. Atlanta ranks fourth in the NFL by allowing only 278.2 total YPG — and they are fourth in the league by holding their opponents to 179 Passing YPG. They hold their opponents to a 31% conversion rate on third down, ranking second in the NFL — and they rank third in pressure rate on passing down despite blitzing only 22.7% of the time which means they are getting to the quarterback without sacrificing a pass defender. Tampa Bay only gained 251 total yards in their loss to the Lions last week. Despite their winning record, they are getting outgained by -39.4 net YPG. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. The Buccaneers have played three straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing an Under in their last game while failing to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after playing two straight Unders. Tampa Bay cannot run the ball — they only generate 78.8 rushing YPG which ranks 29th in the league. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt this team — and their 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry average is tied for last in the NFL. Baker Mayfield is being asked to bail this team out with his arm on third down — and his success on the money down this season is not sustainable as his game against Detroit demonstrated. Tampa Bay gained only 46 rushing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 50 yards. And while their run defense has been very good again under head coach Todd Bowles, opposing quarterbacks are completing 65.3 of their passes against them — and they rank 26th in the league by allowing 247 passing YPG. They also rank 31st in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 49% of their third downs. The Bucs stay home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to three points.   

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-2) has won three games in a row with their 37-20 win at home against Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-13 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favor last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Jacksonville only gained 233 yards on offense last week against the Colts — and now quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury. He is expected to play — but it will be even better for us if backup C.J. Beathard ends up the starter on a short week. Even if Lawrence does play, he will be limited — and his mobility in avoiding the pass rush has played an integral part during their current three-game winning streak. The Jaguars managed only 148 net passing yards last week — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to pass for more than 150 yards in their last game. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their six games this season, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The defense is playing better under defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell this season — they rank eighth in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders. But the offensive line remains an issue — and that unit will be without starting left tackle Walker Little with a knee injury and right guard Brandon Scherff is questionable with an ankle. Lawrence continues to develop — but he may not be able to continue to bail out his offensive line given that knee injury on a short week. Wide receiver Zay Jones is also out for this game due to injury. New Orleans held the Texans to just 297 yards last week in their loss. After holding their final ten opponents last season to just 14.5 PPG, the New Orleans defense seems legit. They rank seventh in the NFL using the tempo-free Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They are holding their opponents to just 278.3 total YPG which is resulting in only 16.0 PPG. The Saints have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-13 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favor last Sunday. Jacksonville (4-2) has won three games in a row with their 37-20 win at home against Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars got outgained by -121 net yards last week — but three interceptions by the Colts’ Gardner Minshew helped them overcome that yardage deficit with a +3 net turnover margin. Jacksonville only gained 233 yards on offense — and now quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury. He is expected to play — but it will be even better for us if backup C.J. Beathard ends up the starter on a short week. Even if Lawrence does play, he will be limited — and his mobility in avoiding the pass rush has played an integral part during their current three-game winning streak. Despite their winning record, this team is getting outgained by -8.4 net Yards-Per-Game this season. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive was if they were a team ready to take another big step to compete with the top teams in the AFC to make a Super Bowl — or will they be closer to the group that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs before rallying for that 31-30 victory. All 11 starters return on defense from a unit that ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 353.3 YPG. General manager Trent Balke neither signed a significant defensive player in free agency nor drafted a defensive player in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. It seemed as if the “plan” was to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks. Admittedly, Ridley has been great and the defense is playing better under defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. But the offensive line remains an issue — and that unit will be without starting left tackle Walker Little with a knee injury and right guard Brandon Scherff is questionable with an ankle. Lawrence continues to develop — but he may not be able to continue to bail out his offensive line given that knee injury on a short week. Wide receiver Zay Jones and cornerback Tyson Campbell are also out for this game due to injury. As it is, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after being outgained by their previous opponent by -100 or more yards. And while the Jaguars have only allowed 6 and 7 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half of their last two games. New Orleans outgained the Texans by +133 net yards by somehow found a way to get upset in that game. The Saints may have a .500 record but they have outscored their opponents by +2.2 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +34.2 net YPG. New Orleans should be playing better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once this season, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. My biggest question for this team in the offseason was whether general manager Mickey Loomis was simply in denial regarding the impending salary cap disaster awaiting this organization — or was he shrewdly kicking the can continually down the road? The Saints are poised to be $61.7 million in the hole versus the cap next season — and Loomis has already allocated $253 million for 2025 for what are mostly older players. They were the oldest team in the NFL last year with an average age of 27.5. But with the NFC South wide open after Tom Brady’s retirement, Loomis addressed the quarterback problem by signing Derek Carr to a four-year deal with $100 million of his $150 million contract guaranteed. With the veteran at quarterback throwing to Chris Olave and a healthy Michael Thomas along with a defense that held their final ten opponents to 14.5 PPG, the Saints were seen as the favorites to win a division consisting of three rebuilding rivals. Over a quarter into the season, the New Orleans defense seems legit. They rank seventh in the NFL using the tempo-free Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They are holding their opponents to just 278.3 total YPG which is resulting in only 16.0 PPG. Carr has been pretty much the same quarterback he was for the Raiders — outstanding at times but also occasionally infuriating. He completed 32 of 50 passes for 353 yards last week while leading the New Orleans offense to 430 total yards. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. With running back Alvin Kamara back and wide receiver Michael Thomas seemingly back in form to complement Chris Olive, the New Orleans offense still has nice potential — and Carr has been known to have big games on national television.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is with the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-10 loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-2) moved to .500 this season with a 24-17 victory against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite two weeks ago on October 1st.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dallas defense will have something to prove tonight after getting shredded by the 49ers who gained 421 yards against them. The Cowboys have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And while the 49ers generated 6.4 Yards-Per-Play against them, they have then played 10 straight games Under the Total on the road after allowing 6.0 or more YPP. Dallas is dealing with some injuries on defense with cornerback Trevon Diggs out the season and middle linebacker Leighton Vander Esch out tonight with a neck injury. But they still have Micah Parsons — and this unit coached by Dan Quinn ranks fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. No one has slowed down that San Francisco offense outside some bad weather and an injury to Christian McCaffrey. They go back on the road where they are only generating 292.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in just 22.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank just 20th in the NFL in Offensive DVOA. The Cowboys have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when favored. Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Quarterback Justin Herbert completed only 13 of 24 passes for just 167 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The Chargers offense misses wide receiver Mike Williams who is out the season with a torn ACL. Herbert is also dealing with a fractured left finger which will require a splint which will make his ability to take snaps under center. Their offense may have to operate mostly in the shotgun which will limit their versatility in their running game. This potential liability will be something both Quinn and Parsons can exploit. Los Angeles only gained 305 total yards last week — but they held the Raiders to just 264 total yards. The Chargers have played 58 of their last 96 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And while Dallas scores 26.8 PPG, Los Angeles has played 47 of their last 74 home games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Furthermore, the Chargers have played all 3 of their games on Monday Night Football Under the Total under head coach Brandon Staley.

FINAL TAKE: One of the subplots of this game will be Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy versus his former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays for Los Angeles. McCarthy took over the play-calling for Moore because he wanted more emphasis on the running game — so expect that to happen tonight since it will keep  Herbert off the field. (and maybe Moore rebels by running the ball more tonight as well with Austin Ekeler healthy again). As it is, the Cowboys have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 20* NFL Dallas-LA Chargers ABC-TV/ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (277) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-10 loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-2) moved to .500 this season with a 24-17 victory against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite two weeks ago on October 1st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas probably had their best week of practice this week after their humiliating 32-point loss to the 49ers. The Cowboys have rebounded to win seven straight games after a loss under head coach Mike McCarthy — and quarterback Dak Prescott has won eight of his last nine games after a loss. Prescott also has a 21-11 record in prime-time games. Dallas has been consistent with good efforts after bad games when it comes to the point spread as well. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 38 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by double-digits. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. They should play better on defense tonight after giving up 421 total yards last week. Dallas is dealing with some injuries on defense with cornerback Trevon Diggs out the season and middle linebacker Leighton Vander Esch out tonight with a neck injury. But they still have Micah Parsons — and this unit coached by Dan Quinn ranks fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. No one has slowed down that San Francisco offense outside some bad weather and an injury to Christian McCaffrey. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 30 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles gets Austin Ekeler back at running back tonight after outrushing the Raiders by +79 net rushing yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outrushing their last opponent by +75 or more yards. The Chargers offense misses wide receiver Mike Williams who is out the season with a torn ACL. Herbert is also dealing with a fractured left finger which will require a splint which will make his ability to take snaps under center. Their offense may have to operate mostly in the shotgun which will limit their versatility in their running game. This potential liability will be something both Quinn and Parsons can exploit. Los Angeles only gained 305 total yards last week. When handicapping the Chargers, it is hard to not factor in the coaching deficit they usually experience with Brandon Staley leading their team. He’s a lunatic with his decision-making — and his team has been fortunate to escape with the win at Minnesota two weeks ago. Staley was hired because of his work as the defensive coordinator with the Los Angeles Rams — but his defense with the Chargers has been underwhelming. They rank 25th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Los Angeles special teams are bad as well — they rank 30th in the NFL using the DVOA numbers which I tend to believe is a function of the head coach. Remember the blown 27-point lead against Jacksonville in the playoffs last season? Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games with the Total set at 45.5.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers do not have much of a home-field advantage in Los Angeles at SoFi Stadium — especially with America’s Team coming to town. In expected close games, the brilliant but injured Herbert may not be able to overcome the missteps of his head coach. Don’t underestimate the motivation Dallas will have in facing their former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore (it is Moore who is responsible for their two-minute offense that led to the embarrassing attempt to spike the football that ended their playoff run two years ago against San Francisco). I find it interesting that the books have the Cowboys favored tonight. Dallas has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the  Dallas Cowboys (277) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the New York Giants (275). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 25-20 upset loss to Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite in their game in London. New York (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 31-16 loss at Miami as a 13-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Regulars will appreciate that I am reluctant to lay this many points in the NFL. Too many things can happen late in the game that spoil the favorite covering point spreads this high. But I do appreciate that these are basically 50-50% propositions. NFL favorites with a money-line price at -800 or higher (roughly laying 13.5 or more points) are 50-50-4 ATS since 2017. I like the Bills to lay it on early and often tonight after their disappointing effort in London last week. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. And in the last 4 occasions where they were playing at home laying more than 14 points, they covered the point spread in all 4 occasions. We have been on the wrong side of this New York team in prime-time games this season. I thought the skepticism regarding this team not being about the same as they were last season was too shortsighted. I think everyone understood that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. Last year’s good fortunes did not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. But becoming a M*A*S*H unit certainly does. Even if the Giants had the potential to compete for a playoff spot again, their injury situation is making that impossible. Running back Saquon Barkley is one of their lone difference makers on offense — and he remains a game-time decision with the ankle injury that has kept him out. Daniel Jones is out leaving the quarterbacking duties to backup Tyrod Taylor. Tight end Darren Waller is questionable. The offensive line is an absolute mess with at least starters Andre Thomas and John Michael Schmitz out — and several others are banged up and listed as questionable. The defense is allowing 30.6 PPG. I just don’t see this as their turnaround game after losing their last three games by 15 or more points. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road after a loss by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two in a row by 10 or more points. They have not covered the point spread in all five of their games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have not scored more than 16 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score 17 or more points in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: We bet numbers rather than teams still — and the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when a double-digit underdog including in both their games this season where they lost to San Francisco and Miami by an average of 16.5 points (and by 15 points in both games). All three of Buffalo’s victories this season have been by 18 or more points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the New York Giants (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). THE SITUATION: New York (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 31-16 loss at Miami as a 13-point underdog on Sunday. Buffalo (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 25-20 upset loss to Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite in their game in London.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills should make a statement with their defense tonight. That got embarrassed last week in their loss to the Jaguars who gained 474 yards against them. Despite that yardage, Buffalo still ranks fifth in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and now they have           Von Miller back from injury to bolster their pass rush. The Bills have held two of their opponents to just three and ten points. They held their opponents to 17.9 Points-Per-Game last year which was the second-lowest mark in the league. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And while Josh Allen led the offense to 388 total yards last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining 375 or more yards in their last contest. The Bills have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total between Weeks Five through Nine — and the Giants have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Weeks Five through Nine. New York has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. The Giants have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. And while they have not scored more than 16 points in their last three games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. Running back Saquon Barkley is one of their lone difference makers on offense — and he remains a game-time decision with the ankle injury that has kept him out. Daniel Jones is out leaving the quarterbacking duties to backup Tyrod Taylor. Tight end Darren Waller is questionable. The offensive line is an absolute mess with at least starters Andre Thomas and John Michael Schmitz out — and several others are banged up and listed as questionable. The defense is allowing 30.6 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog — and Buffalo has played 3 of their last 4 home games Under the Total when laying 14.5 to 21 points. 20* NFL NY Giants-Buffalo NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (268) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (267). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) looks to build off their 26-9 upset victory at New Orleans as a 4.5-point underdog two Sundays ago on October 1st. Detroit (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 42-24 win against Carolina as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit only outgained the Panthers by 35 net yards last week but took advantage of a +3 net turnover margin. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 road games after playing a game at home where both teams scored at least 24 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 40 games on the road after winning two games in a row. Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his best at home all season including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a Quarterback Rating of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. These disparate home/road splits are continuing this season with Goff enjoying a 113.1 QBR with a 72.9% completion percentage while averaging 267.3 passing YPG with seven touchdown passes and just two interceptions in three starts at home — but in his two starts on the road, he has 90.9 QBR with a 65.1% completion percentage while averaging  231.5 passing YPG with only two touchdown passes and one interception. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games when favored by up to seven points. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win on the road. My main question for this team in the offseason regarding whether they were being too quickly dismissed by critics in their first season after Tom Brady’s retirement. The defense still has stalwarts like nose tackle Vita Vea, linebackers Devin White, Lavonte David, and Shaquille Barrett along with cornerback Carlton Davis III and safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. from their outstanding defense in their 2021 Super Bowl championship team. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain one of the best wide receivers in the league.  The team signed the much-maligned Baker Mayfield as a free agent who has not met the expectations of being a former number-one pick in the NFL draft. But no one can question Mayfield’s toughness and he is much more popular inside the locker room than he by the media and fans. He does have a history of playing better as an underdog with a chip on his shoulder. With Brady gone and previous head coach Bruce Arians no longer making his presence felt, second-year head coach Todd Bowles has the opportunity to define this team in his image. As we turn the corner in the first corner of the season, the Buccaneers look like a pretty good football team. Their defense is holding their opponents to only 318.5 total YPG which is resulting in only 17.0 PPG. That unit ranks sixth in the league using the Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. Mayfield is completing 69.6 of his passes with seven touchdown passes and only two interceptions — and his QBR of 101.5 is the highest of his career.

FINAL TAKE: I am higher on Bowles as a head coach than many who remember his final few seasons as the head coach of the New York Jets — but he led them to a 10-6 record in his first season before the dysfunction of that organization took over. His teams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (268) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (267). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 23-16 upset win against Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (3-2) has won two games in a row after completing their two-game sweep in London with a 25-20 upset win against Buffalo as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return home as conquering heroes after their upset victory against the Bills — but one of the reasons we were on Jacksonville last week was the situational edge they enjoyed with that being their second week in London while Buffalo was still dealing with potential jet lag and getting accustomed to being in England. Now this Jags team becomes the first team to play an NFL game after two straight games played across the pond. While this is unprecedented, it is interesting to note that all 11 teams that returned to the US to play in a game without a bye the first week back all found themselves trailing to tied in the fourth quarter. If even these teams experienced a travel hangover, Jacksonville is likely to come out sluggish this afternoon. They controlled that game against the Bills by generating 29 first downs with their offense on the field for 38:12 minutes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after being on offense for at least 34 minutes and gaining 24 or more first downs. They ran for 196 yards last week against Buffalo — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. They only gave up seven points in the first half of both their games in London — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. they return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 46 home games in October. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a fellow AFC South rival. Gardner Minshew stepped up in relief for an injured Anthony Richardson to complete 11 of 14 passes for 155 yards in leading the team to victory. At this point in his career, Minshew may be the best backup in the league. He is completing 68.7% of his passes this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his 83 attempts this year. He does not lack confidence — and he has running back Jonathan Taylor in the backfield again with his contract dispute settled. Taylor will probably split time again with Zack Moss who was outstanding last week by gaining 165 yards on the ground last week with two touchdowns. The Colts averaged 7.15 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP in their last contest. This is a solid football team under rookie head coach Shane Steichen. They rank 13th in the NFL in Offensive DVOA and 16th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics from Football Outsiders — and those are surprising rankings for a team that finished 4-10-1 last year. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as the dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars are many people’s sleeper team this season — so their victory against Buffalo confirms that prior belief for these folks. But after only outgaining their opponents by +4.1 net YPG last season, they are only outgaining their opponents this year by +14.2 YPG and outscoring them by +0.6 PPG, down from their +3.2 net PPG margin last year. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when laying up to seven points. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (251) and the Tennessee Titans (252). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 17-10 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (2-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 23-16 upset loss at Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Turnovers did the Ravens in last week as they turned the ball over three times and endured a -2 net turnover margin. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The Ravens have not allowed more than 93 rushing yards in their last two contests — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. This Baltimore defense has been outstanding since they acquired linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago at the trade deadline last season. They are second in the NFL this season by allowing only 15.0 Points-Per-Game — and they are also second in the league by giving up 266.4 total Yards-Per-Game and 3.9 Yards-Per-Play. They lead the NFL in passing YPG allowed — and they are fourth in the league in touchdowns allowed per Opponent Red Zone Trip. Their 18 sacks are the second most in the NFL. Using the Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders, the Ravens have the second-best defense. But they are only scoring 21.8 Points-Per-Game this season with the offensive production dropping a bit this season under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken — although wide receiver drops are not helping the cause. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 straight Unders when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They have played three straight Unders — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. And while the Titans allowed the Colts to average 7.15 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 6.5 or more YPP. Tennessee is only allowing 18.6 PPG this season — their problems are on the other side of the ball. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has only two touchdown passes this season — he is averaging a touchdown pass every 71 throws. Running back Derrick Henry has only one game where he rushed for more than 100 yards. Wide receiver Treylon Burks remains out with a knee injury. This is an offense that lacks young playmakers to complement their aging veterans. They are scoring only 17.6 PPG while averaging just 293.6 YPG. The Titans have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Baltimore has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Baltimore-Tennessee London Calling O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (251) and the Tennessee Titans (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (111) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (112). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-4) lost for the fourth time in their five games this season with a 31-21 upset loss to the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 27-20 win at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: We bet numbers rather than teams —  and double-digits are simply too many points to give up on a short week to a division rival. Certainly, Payton and his coaching staff spent a significant amount of time in the offseason preparing for this game that, in theory, looked critical to their season. I think the Chiefs win comfortably — but they would be quite content with a ten-point victory. Kansas City has not scored more than 27 points in four of their five games this season — and they have not scored more than 23 points in three of their five games. After losing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in the offseason, their cadre of young receivers like Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice have not stepped up to become a number one wide receiver target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. As their opening game against Detroit demonstrated, these wide receivers simply drop too many passes. After the eight drops in that opening contest that probably cost them the game, Mahomes is seeing 6.7% of his passes dropped this season, the third-highest mark in the NFL. While the memory of Miami putting up 70 points and 726 yards against this Broncos team three weeks ago, the Chiefs tend to not put up those video game-type numbers when they are playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium (despite their scoring of 41 points at home earlier this season against Chicago). In their ten home games last season, they only scored more than 27 points one time — but they scored 30 or more points eight times when on the road including the Super Bowl. Despite averaging 29.2 PPG last regular season, the scoring average dropped to 25.1 PPG when playing at home. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home during Weeks Five through Nine. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 8 games when favored by double digits, they have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Denver has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. And while this team has allowed 28 or more points in four straight games, Payton’s teams going back to his time with New Orleans have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: Payton’s teams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and his teams have covered the point spread in 21 of their 29 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (111) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-4) lost for the fourth time in their five games this season with a 31-21 upset loss to the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 27-20 win at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas City has not scored more than 27 points in four of their five games this season — and they have not scored more than 23 points in three of their five games. After losing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in the offseason, their cadre of young receivers like Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice have not stepped up to become a number one wide receiver target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. As their opening game against Detroit demonstrated, these wide receivers simply drop too many passes. After the eight drops in that opening contest that probably cost them the game, Mahomes is seeing 6.7% of his passes dropped this season, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Now facing this horrendous Broncos defense that particularly struggles against the run, expect head coach Andy Reid to be quite content just running the ball — and that will burn time off the clock. Denver is allowing opposing rushers to generate 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry. And while the Broncos are also giving up 263 passing Yards-Per-Game, the Chiefs have played 36 of their last 56 games Under the Total against opponents allowing 260 or more passing YPG. While the memory of Miami putting up 70 points and 726 yards against this Broncos team three weeks ago, the Chiefs tend to not put up those video game-type numbers when they are playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium (despite their scoring of 41 points at home earlier this season against Chicago). In their ten home games last season, they only scored more than 27 points one time — but they scored 30 or more points eight times when on the road including the Super Bowl. Despite averaging 29.2 PPG last regular season, the scoring average dropped to 25.1 PPG when playing at home. Perhaps their scoring was lower in these home games because they did not need to push the pedal because of their strong play on defense. They held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. This year’s Chiefs’ defense is even better with the continued development of their second-year players. Defensive end George Karlaftis, cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and safety Bryan Cook form a great foundation on that side of the ball for years — and, of course, defensive tackle Chris Jones’ contract dispute is resolved and he is back in the mix after missing the Lions game. Kansas City is holding their opponents to 16.0 PPG and 301.4 YPG while not giving up more than 21 points all season. In their two home games, the Chiefs are allowing just 15.5 PPG and 285.5 YPG. Kansas City has played 15 of their last 24 home games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 31 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, they have played a decisive 42 of 64 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Denver only gained 308 total yards last week — but “Russell Wilson is not the problem!” Ever since the football left his hand in Super Bowl 49 and somehow ended in the arms of New England’s Malcolm Butler at the goal line to cost Seattle that championship, it’s never Wilson’s fault. “Let Russ Cook!” And when Russ was finally allowed to cook by being liberated from the conservative defensive coach Pete Carroll, the fireworks were inevitable with Wilson’s opportunity to construct an offensive scheme with the offensive coordinator that helped Aaron Rodgers win MVPs! But when personal parking spaces and offices in the building did not lead to huge numbers or wins, it was decided that it was all head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s fault. Bring in an adult like Sean Payton and everything will come together! Unironically, these folks were anxious for Payton to get Wilson back to the comfort level that he enjoyed when playing with the Seahawks — as if Payton implements the Brian Schottenheimer playbook, all will be great again (despite Schottenheimer being the arch-villain in the Let Russ Cook drama). Even now, five games into what is already a lost season, there remains a contingent who remain fully committed to the “It’s Not Russ’ Fault” narrative as they post tweets about how good his numbers are again. If the analytics folks want to privilege the empty calorie statistics from when the Broncos were trailing by 30 or so points against the Dolphins or laud Wilson’s 308 passing yards in Denver’s game against Washington where they blew a 21-3 lead (Not Russ’s Fault!) while he completed only 56.0% of his passes, well, I guess they can. Admittedly, Wilson’s interceptions are down. And he has been more mobile again (his defenders are quick to point out that he dropped weight in the offseason yet leave unanswered the mystery regarding how he gained 20 pounds last year — perhaps Wilson was force-fed Twinkies by that idiot Hackett in their 7 AM sessions last August when Russ was putting his personal stamp on the offense?). But Wilson has passed for more than 223 yards in just two of his five games — and the Broncos have not scored more than 21 points in three of their five games. Perhaps most importantly, Wilson has heroically returned to his 2021 Seattle form (when his not being allowed to cook was the crime against humanity), and he has done so against some of the worst defenses in the league. Las Vegas, Washington, Miami, and Chicago rank 24th, 26th, 25th, and 31st in the Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA rankings. The Jets rank 15th in Defensive DVOA (and were without cornerback D.J. Reed) — yet Wilson completed just 20 of 31 passes against them for 196 passing yards in that loss. Now Wilson faces the best defense he has faced this season according to the Defensive DVOA numbers that place the Chiefs 11th — on a short week to boot. As it is, the Broncos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset double-digit loss as a home favorite. Denver has given up at least 28 points in four straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in three or more games in a row. And while they allowed the Jets to rush for 234 yards, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 175 or more rushing yards. Additionally, the Broncos have played 11 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total from Week Five to Week Nine. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-20 loss at home to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 28th for Thursday Night Football. Las Vegas (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 24-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Green Bay dug themselves a big hole last week as they went into the locker room trailing by a 27-3 score. The Packers have then played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their last game. They have also played 36 of their last 55 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 15 of their last 19 home games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 33 of their last 51 road games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. And they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Green Bay is struggling with their running game after failing to rush for more than 95 yards in a game this season. With Aaron Jones declared out for tonight’s game, the Packers will likely rely on their passing game which will lengthen the game. They have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not rushing for 100 or more yards in four straight games. Quarterback Jordan Love has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 56.1% of his passes — but his receivers have had too many drops. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson was injured to begin the season — but he returned for the Lions game to score a touchdown and is ready to go tonight. Love does have eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions — and he is averaging 18.5 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns offering enough of a threat with his legs to keep defenses honest. Las Vegas will have Jimmy Garoppolo and Davante Adams on the field tonight with the quarterback clearing the concussion protocol and the wide receiver able to play with his shoulder issue. Garoppolo missed the game against the Chargers — and rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell demonstrated that he is not ready for NFL competition despite his nice preseason as the offense only gained 264 total yards. The Raiders have played 18 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a loss by seven points or less against an AFC West rival. And while they have not scored more than seven points in the first half in two straight games, they have then played 25 of their last 36 home games Over the Total after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. And while Las Vegas has played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-20 loss at home to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 28th for Thursday Night Football. Las Vegas (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 24-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay got embarrassed on national television — but with the extra few days to rest and prepare, expect a much better effort from them tonight. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. And while they got outgained by -173 net yards with the Lions generating 401 yards against them, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. My main question for this team in my deep dive on them in the offseason dealt with the possibility that the Packers would respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request. The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. Love has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 56.1% of his passes — but his receivers have had too many drops. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson was injured to begin the season — but he returned for the Lions game to score a touchdown and is ready to go tonight. Love does have eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions — and he is averaging 18.5 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns offering enough of a threat with his legs to keep defenses honest. The Packers will not have running back Aaron Jones tonight as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury — but getting to play this Raiders team may be just what the doctor ordered. Las Vegas is a mess on and off the field. On the field, the Raiders rank 31st in Offensive DVOA according to the metrics deployed by Football Outsiders while ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA. Off the field, the release of linebacker Chandler Jones for his personal issues is just the latest drama impacting this team. Second-year Josh McDaniels does not appear to have complete support in the locker room with veterans like wide receiver Davante Adams expressing his displeasure with the direction of the team. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been cleared from the concussion protocol and will take the field tonight. But Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after a loss on the road to a divisional foe. The Chargers outrushed them by -79 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Running back Josh Jacobs is averaging only 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry this season after generating 4.9 YPC during his 1653 rushing yards campaign last year. His decrease in production may not be all his fault as he is rushing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Raiders have one of the worst rosters in the league after years of disastrous drafts in the Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock era. Coming from the NFL Network to be a “yes” man for Gruden, Mayock drafted as if his only scouting was watching the 3:30 PM ET and prime-time college football games on national television on Saturdays after sleeping through the early game here in Vegas. Las Vegas is starting slow which is an indication of poorly designed early play scripts on offense. After trailing 13-7 against Pittsburgh two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football, they went into the locker room last week trailing the Chargers by a 24-7 score. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 60 games after trailing by 14 or more points at halftime of their last game including covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games under those circumstances. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. Las Vegas has not covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 54 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as a dog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in expected close games with them listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (473). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-16 win against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (3-1) rebounded from their loss to Arizona two weeks ago with a 38-3 victory at home against New England as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: While the Cowboys come off a blowout win against the Patriots (who looked terrible earlier today against New Orleans), they tend to fall flat after big wins like that. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after a win at home by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a win by 28 or more points. And while their defense looked great at what is a completely inept New England offense (even under Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator), they have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 33 games after not allowing more than nine points in their last contest. The Cowboys have veered the point spread in three of their four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games on the road after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Now after playing a light schedule consisting of the New York Giants and Jets, Arizona (in their loss), and New England who now have a combined 4-14 record after the 1 PM ET window, they face a major upgrade in competition tonight. San Francisco has won 14 straight regular season games — and remember that their playoff loss last season was after injuries at quarterback left them without a person capable of executing a forward pass. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a point spread victory. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning four or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in three of their four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. San Francisco has scored exactly 30 points in all four of their games — and they have covered the points spread in 6 straight home games after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. They stay at home for a third straight week where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games as a favorite. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (474) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-1) comes into this showdown off a 38-3 win against New England as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-0) maintained their unbeaten season with a 35-16 victory against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys held the Patriots to just 253 yards in their blowout victory last week. Led by Micah Parsons, Dallas may have the best defense in the league. They are holding their opponents to just 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 10.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank as the top defense in the NFL using the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. They also lead the league in third-down defense and turnover differential. They enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while the Cowboys have covered the point spread in three of their four games this season, they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Additionally, Dallas has played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers hold their opponents to just 4.7 YPP — and the Cowboys have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total against teams not allowing more than 4.75 YPP. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an NFC West rival. The 49ers’ defense is also outstanding as they hold their opponents to just 284.3 total YPG which results in their opponents scoring only 14.5 PPG. They rank seventh in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. The Niners do have an explosive offensive — but they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. They did generate 7.6 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after averaging 6.5 to more YPP in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played twice since 2022 with San Francisco following up a 23-17 win in the 2022 NFC Wildcard round of the playoffs with a 19-12 victory last year in the NFC Divisional Playoffs — and that game was after the Niners had Christian McCaffrey Brock Purdy in their starting lineup but only generated 312 total yards of offense against Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (2-2) has won two of their last three games after their 27-3 upset victory against Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 29-23 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 8 of their last ten games Under the Total after an upset win as an underdog. They held the Bengals to just 72 rushing yards last week — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 22 of their last 36 road games Under the Total when favored by three points or less. Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while the Colts allowed the Rams to average 6.14 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP. They stay at home where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total listed in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8*  NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-2) was on a two-game losing streak before their 30-7 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (3-1) comes off a 28-3 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh got embarrassed last week — and they are banged up with a bunch of injuries including quarterback Kenny Pickett who is likely to play with a knee brace. This is an endorsement of the Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin who reliably has his team ready to play in situations like this. In Pittsburgh’s circles, they were anxious about getting back late from a delayed flight after their Sunday night game in Las Vegas two weeks ago — and it cost them a practice day in pads in preparation for the game against the Texans. On a two-game winning streak off a win on Sunday Night Football, that may have contributed to their soft effort against the Texans. Tomlin made it clear they were back in pads for practice this week — especially in preparation for their game with the Ravens in what is the most physical rivalry in the league. Nothing like a game with Baltimore to clarify expectations. As it is, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games at home after an upset loss by double-digits. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after a loss by 14 points or more points on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by 21 or more points including covering the point spread in those last five circumstances — and they have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. Admittedly, the offense looks like a mess right now with offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense scrutiny — but the Steelers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points. And the defense has something to prove — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing 30 or points while covering the point spread in 6 straight games at home after giving up 30 or more points. Remember that this team has a 10-4 record in their last 14 games with a healthy T.J. Watt who is locked and loaded for this game. Baltimore is just as injured as the Steelers are right now — but they are surviving their M*A*S*H unit adventures because they have enjoyed good fortune with opposing quarterbacks. After getting to play C.J. Stroud in his first professional start for Houston last month, they then got an injured Joe Burrow, backup Gardner Minshew (in a loss), and another rookie debut with the Browns having to turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week. The Ravens have failed to cover the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against an AFC North rival. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 12 games against not allowing more than 14 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of those contests. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 34 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh plays Lamar Jackson tough — besides beating the Ravens in five of their last six games against them, they have held Jackson to just a 66 Passer Rating in his games against them. Eight of the last ten meetings between these teams have been decided by one scoring possession — and the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (452). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 23-7 victory against Atlanta in London last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Buffalo (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 48-20 loss to Miami as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills raced out to a 31-14 lead to dominate their AFC East rivals whom they played three times last season including in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs. Don’t be surprised if this suffers an emotional letdown this week — especially with the challenges of traveling to London this week. As it is, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win at home against a divisional rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit victory against an AFC East opponent. After a shaky opening game in prime-time against the New York Jets where Josh Allen’s turnover issues popped up in a loss despite the early injury to Aaron Rodgers, the Bills have won and covered the point spread in three straight games. But Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 39 games on the road after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The defense does expect to get Von Miller back for the first time this season after his season-ending injury last year — but they will be without defensive end Gregory Rousseau who was having a breakout season rushing the passer this year. The Bills’ defense is banged up for this game with several other players listed as questionable — and they lost star cornerback Tre’Davious White last week to a season-ending Achilles injury. Jacksonville stayed in London all week after beating the Falcons at Wembley Stadium last week. Staying across the pond for the additional time should give them a significant situational edge against the Bills still getting accustomed to the time change — and I tend to like teams that stay on the road together for two weeks since it gives their mission more of a business trip vibe. This contest is a statement game for Jacksonville who want to be considered as a contender to win the AFC Championship but have underperformed so far this season. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 6 straight games away from home. They have also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 54 games after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. They did enjoy a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better turnover margin in their last game. They are fourth in the NFL with nine takeaways this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills are scoring 34.8 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +21.0 PPG — but head coach Doug Pederson’s teams going back to Philadelphia have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 games against teams scoring 29.0 or more PPG and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more net PPG. 10* NFL Jacksonville-Buffalo London Calling Special with the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (306) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (305). THE SITUATION: Washington (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 34-31 loss in overtime at Philadelphia on Sunday. Chicago (0-4) remains winless after their 31-28 loss at home to Denver as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Al Michaels is not going to be happy calling this game between two clubs that have only two combined victories between them going into Week Five — it’s a tough life for the 78-year-old making about a million dollars per broadcast on Amazon Prime through 2024. And it may look tough to lay the six or so points with a Washington team that got crushed by 34 points against Buffalo two weeks ago (even worse: teams coming off an overtime game on Sunday now playing on a short week with a Thursday game have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of these last 24 circumstances according to my database). But Commanders’ head coach Ron Rivera usually has his team take full advantage of situations like this. In his tenure at Washington, his teams have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games against teams not winning more than 25% of their games. And while the Bears are getting outscored by -15.5 Points-Per-Game, the Commanders have covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games under Rivera against teams getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG. Rivera’s Washington teams also thrive against teams playing bad defense. Chicago is allowing 34.3 PPG and 383.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and the Commanders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams allowing 375 or more YPG and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams allowing 24 or more PPG. The biggest question I had for this team in the offseason was how good could quarterback Sam Howell be in his second season. While he was drafted only in the fifth round in the 2022 NFL draft, he was considered as potentially a first-round talent after his sophomore season at North Carolina in 2020. He regressed in his third season with the Tar Heels — but perhaps much of that blame should go to the graduation of his top two targets in the passing game along with two running back drafted into the NFL. Howell possesses natural leadership skills — and no one will question his arm strength. If he can improve pocket presence and decision-making, he seems capable of being a productive starter in the league. While his game against the Bills was ugly, he has shown flashes of greatness. Against the stout Eagles defense last week, he completed 29 of 41 passes for 290 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a point spread win and in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Furthermore, Rivera’s teams going back to his tenure at Carolina have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a loss on the road. Chicago is a dysfunctional mess under second-year head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears have lost 14 games in a row after ending the previous season on a ten-game losing streak. Third-year quarterback Justin Fields seems to be drowning under the pressure and scrutiny of being a former first-round pick — and the coaching staff seems to be making his job even more difficult like with decisions to go for it on fourth down rather than kick a go-ahead field goal late in their game with the Broncos last week. Defensive coordinator Alan Williams was dismissed from the team a few weeks ago after some misconduct was discovered by the organization. Eberflus is calling the plays on defense as if he did not need more things on his plate. Wide receiver Chase Claypool is not being dressed for games after he criticized the coaching staff — he is on the trade block. Injuries to cornerback Jaylon Johnson and free safety Eddie Jackson will require Eberflus to start two rookies in their defensive backfield tonight. After ranking last in the NFL with only 32 sacks last year, Chicago remains last in that category this season after registering only two sacks — and they rank second to last in quarterback hits. So while it is far from ideal for the Commanders to be playing on a short week after playing an additional eight minutes of overtime on Sunday, this Bears group is in no position to take advantage of that given all the chaos they are experiencing. The shame of it is that they played their best game of the season for almost three quarters — they took a 28-7 lead over Denver with just over four minutes left in the third quarter. I suspect that loss was deflating and resulted in a hangover that may carry over into this road game for them on a short week. As it is, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after losing two or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have allowed 27 or more points in all four of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight contests.

FINAL TAKE:  The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Commanders (306) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (305) and the Washington Commanders (306). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-4) has lost their first four games this season after their 31-28 loss at home to Denver as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Washington (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 34-31 loss in overtime at Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Washington has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. The Commanders did allow the Eagles to generate 6.48 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average 6.0 or more YPP. The offense will likely be undermanned tonight with wide receivers Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson both questionable with injuries. Expect the Washington game plan to be to control the line of scrimmage with Brian Robinson running the ball and burning time on the clock. The Commanders have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season. Chicago enjoyed their best offensive game of the season after putting up 471 yards up against the dreadful Broncos defense fresh off giving up 70 points to Miami the previous week. So while the Bears generated 7.14 YPP, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing four or more games in a row. The Bears defense is nothing to write home about either after giving up 401.3 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have then played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Washington head coach Ron Rivera prefers lower-scoring games where his offense can control the clock to keep his defense fresh — the Commanders have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when they are favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 20* NFL Chicago-Washington Amazon Prime O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (305) and the Washington Commanders (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (279) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (280). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 37-27 win against Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (1-2) comes off a 30-12 loss at San Francisco as a 10.5-point underdog back on September 21st.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): After playing flat in their opening game against the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle has scored 37 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. Pundits expecting quarterback Geno Smith to revert to his previous form with the New York Jets are eating crow with home completing 69% of his passes this season. He led the NFL with a 69.8% completion percentage last year while winning the Comeback Player Of the Year Award. Arm talent was never the issue for the former West Virginia quarterback — he was the 39th pick in the 2013 NFL draft. He is more mature now — and he has clearly learned from working with Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning. The Seahawks defense has underachieved this season after allowing at least 27 points in all three of their games — but they get back Jamal Adams tonight after missing almost all of last season with the knee injury he suffered in Week One. He will immediately improve their run defense — and he will probably be assigned to rush the quarterback in big nickel schemes with two other safeties on the field. Seattle has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 25 or more points in two straight games. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in October. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. They have not covered the point spread in their three games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They have only scored six points in the first half all season — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games. I think everyone understands that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. But last year’s good fortunes do not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. Daboll immediately fixed Jones’ turnover problems as the fifth-year pro threw only five interceptions — and his 1.1% interception rate was the best in the NFL for regular starting QBs. Could the team add team speed, find more playmakers on offense to stretch the field, and improve their run defense? If so, then they could certainly develop into a more deserving playoff team this season. After scoring only 14.3 PPG this season, injuries are making any improvement on that side of the field nearly impossible. Running back Saquon Barkley remains out with his high ankle sprain. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is out with a hamstring injury. It is telling that after only throwing five interceptions last season Jones has already thrown four picks this year. The Giants have a -5 net turnover margin after losing the turnover battle in each of their games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after losing the turnover battle in two or more games in a row. And then there is the state of the New York defense that has allowed 32 Points-Per-Game in their last five games going back to last season — and they have not forced a turnover in those last five contests. It does not inspire confidence they are starting two rookies at cornerback with Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins III.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have lost seven straight games when playing on Monday Night Football — and Jones has a personal 1-11 straight-up record when playing in prime time. 20* NFL Seattle-NY Giants ABC-TV/ESPN Special with the Seattle Seahawks (279) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (279) and the New York Giants (280). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 37-27 win against Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (1-2) comes off a 30-12 loss at San Francisco as a 10.5-point underdog back on September 21st.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Seattle has covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. They have scored 37 points in two straight contests — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or points in two straight contests. The Seahawks defense has underachieved this season after allowing at least 27 points in all three of their games — but they get back Jamal Adams tonight after missing almost all of last season with the knee injury he suffered in Week One. He will immediately improve their run defense — and he will probably be assigned to rush the quarterback in big nickel schemes with two other safeties on the field. Seattle goes back on the road where they have played 39 of their last 61 road games Under the Total in the first month of the season. They have also played 49 of their last 82 road games Under the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 14 or more points — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have not covered the point spread in all three of their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Giants have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. After scoring only 14.3 PPG this season, injuries are making any improvement on that side of the field nearly impossible. Running back Saquon Barkley remains out with his high ankle sprain. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is out with a hamstring injury. They return home where they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, New York has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Seahawks have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (279) and the New York Giants (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). THE SITUATION: New York (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 15-10 loss to New England as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 13-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: This situation offers the opportunity to remind us that we are betting numbers rather than teams. For Zach Wilson and this Jets’ offense, things cannot get much worse than they have been the last two weeks. But the opportunity to take them getting more than a touchdown with them playing at home is too good to pass up. New York has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 home games when getting 7.5 to 10 points as the underdog. With the nationally-televised audience tonight — and apparently Taylor Swift in the house — look for the Jets to play inspired football like they did when they upset Buffalo in a prime-time game at home at MetLife Stadium in Week One. New York has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by seven points or less to an AFC East rival. They have been outgained by 171 and 215 yards in two straight contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in two straight games. The Jets offense has only scored 20 combined points in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than 20 points in two straight games. The New York defense has been strained — but they remain a good unit that is only allowing 20.3 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. And while they generated 6.3 and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in two straight games after their upset loss to Detroit in Week One — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. My biggest question for this team in my deep dive on them in the offseason was whether the defending Super Bowl champions could maintain the razor-sharp intensity necessary to run through the gauntlet that will likely be AFC playoffs in January. With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman gone, Patrick Mahomes has now lost another two starting wide receivers since the departure of Tyreek Hill last year. The Chiefs replaced eight veterans including five starters from last year’s championship roster including defensive end Frank Clark. Before crushing the train-wreck Bears last week, Kansas City had only scored 20 and 17 points in their first two games with Mahomes not throwing for 300 net yards in either contest. The supporting cast of wide receivers after tight end Travis Kelce has looked shaky — and remember their eight drops against the Lions were in another nationally-televised prime time game.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games when laying 7.5-14 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with New York Jets (278) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 13-point favorite last Sunday. New York (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 15-10 loss to New England as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets’ offense has been a disaster in the wake of the Aaron Rodgers series in the opening series of their first game of the season. They are scoring only 14.0 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 225.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The team is still sticking with Zach Wilson despite him only completing 52.4% of his passes this season. But the problems of this offense go much further than the disappointing former second pick in the 2021 draft. New York’s offensive line is a mess as an already shaky unit has been hit hard with injuries with left tackle Duane Brown out along with rotational guard Wes Schweitzer. Wilson has been sacked eight times — and he is not getting any help in their rushing attack behind this line that is not opening rushing lanes. Dalvin Cook has generated only 2.3 Yards-Per-Carry and Breece Hall has a mere 36 total yards from scrimmage in his last two games. The Jets have scored only 10 points in two straight games. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss at home to an AFC East rival. The Jets' defense has been strained — but they remain a good unit that is only allowing 20.3 PPG. In their two games at home at MetLife Stadium, they held Buffalo and the Patriots to just 16 and 15 points. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Kansas City comes off a dominating performance where had the ball for 36:13 minutes while generating 31 first downs against the Bears. The Chiefs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least 24 first downs with their offense on the field for at least 34 minutes. They gained 456 total yards last week while outgaining Chicago by +253 net yards — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by +200 or more yards. And while Kansas City has generated 6.3 and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Don’t be surprised if head coach Andy Reid is content with dialing up their rushing attack tonight against this Jets defense that has allowed 291 rushing yards in their last two games — and that will shorten the game by keeping the clock moving. The Chiefs' defense has become another strength for this team as they are holding their opponents to just 13.3 PPG and 280.7 YPG. They rank ninth in the NFL in Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA ratings — and they have not allowed more than 21 points in a game while giving up just 19 combined points in their last two contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-2) looks to bounce back from their 23-18 upset loss at home to Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday night. Los Angeles (1-2) won their first game of the season in a 28-24 upset victory at Minnesota as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders will be without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo who suffered a concussion late in the game against the Steelers. Rookie Aidan O’Connell will be under center for head coach Josh McDaniels — and while the former Purdue quarterback look good in the preseason, he will be introduced to non-vanilla defenses and first-string players this afternoon. Even with Garoppoli, they have not scored more than 18 points in any of their games this season. The Raiders have played a decisive 46 of their last 72 road games Under the Total after a loss at home. And while they committed three turnovers last week from Garoppolo interceptions, they have then played straight Unders after a game where they had three or more turnovers. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total. Los Angeles has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 54 of their last 85 home games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Justin Herbert completed 40 of 47 passes for 405 yards in the victory — and the Chargers have played 22 of their last 28 home games Under the Total after playing a game where they passed for at least 350 yards.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 3 of their last 4 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on the Chargers home field. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (265) and the New Orleans Saints (266). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (2-1) looks to bounce back from their 25-11 loss at home to Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. New Orleans (2-1) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 18-17 upset loss at Green Bay as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers offense got exposed against the Eagles as they only gained 174 total yards. Baker Mayfield completed 15 of 25 passes for a meager 146 yards. Tampa Bay is scoring only 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The Bucs have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Buccaneers’ offensive line is holding them back — the season-ending knee injury to center Ryan Jensen was a major blow for this team. They struggled to get a running game going last year even with a healthy Jensen — and now they are averaging just 78 rushing Yards-Per-Game with a 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. They got outrushed by -160 yards last week to the Eagles — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after getting outrushed by -150 or more yards. Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid as they are allowing only 19.7 PPG after holding two of their opponents to only 17 points. New Orleans has not allowed more than 20 points in 11 straight games behind what may be the most underrated defense in the league. The Saints have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they held the Packers scoreless going into the fourth quarter before squandering that lead, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. It looks like Derek Carr is going to give it a go in this one after being listed as questionable all week with a shoulder injury that knocked him out of last week’s game. With running back Alvin Kamara returning from his suspension, look for the New Orleans offense to focus on the ground game to protect Carr in what will likely be a contained game plan. New Orleans returns home where they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals. Tampa Bay has played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total against fellow NFC rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (265) and the New Orleans Saints (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Detroit (2-1) improved their record to 2-1 this season after their 20-6 win at home against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (2-1) has the same record after their 18-17 upset win against New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory.  And while they have covered the point spread in two of their three games, they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Jared Goff continues to be more effective when playing at home for Detroit. At home at Ford Field last year, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. So far this season, those disparate home/road splits have continued for Goff. He has averaged 283.0 passing YPG while completing 73.5% of his passes in his two home starts -- but in his one start on the road this season at Kansas City, those numbers dropped to 253 passing yards and a 62.9% completion percentage. The Lions have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Detroit is not at full strength on their offensive line with starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai out along with offensive lineman Matt Nelson. Green Bay is also banged up on their offensive line with starting left tackle David Bahktiari and starting left guard Elgton Jenkins both out for tonight’s game. The Packers have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. Green Bay stays at home where they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Packers’ defense has eight former first-round draft picks — and they rank 10th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA rankings so far this season. The Lions are also playing better defense so far this season — they rank 12th in those defensive DVOA rankings.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played two low-scoring games last season with Detroit winning both games by 20-16 and 15-9 scores. Green Bay has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (102) plus the point(s) versus the Detroit Lions (101). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-1) improved their record to 2-1 with an 18-17 upset win against New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (2-1) has the same record after their 20-6 win at home against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Green Bay comes into this game with momentum after their win against the Saints — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory in their last game. The Packers have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And with that game finishing Under the Total, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The main question I had about this team coming into the season was whether they might respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request. The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. Love demonstrated his poise by leading an 18-point comeback in the fourth quarter last week to steal that game against New Orleans. He has been a threat with his legs — he has rushed for 74 yards this season on 14 carries with a crucial touchdown last week. Those numbers are similar to Josh Allen’s 89 rushing yards on 12 carries and Deshaun Watson’s 83 yards on 15 carriers with both mobile QBs also having one touchdown. The Packers’ defense has eight former first-round draft picks — and they rank 10th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA rankings so far this season. Green Bay stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the points spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog. LaFleur expects to get running back Aaron Jones back for this game which should help to get their running game going after not rushing for more than 95 yards in a game yet this season. The Packers have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in three straight games. Green Bay is still dealing with some other injuries with left tackle David Bahktiari, left guard Elgton Jenkins, and linebacker De’Vondae Campbell out. They have developed some nice depth on their offensive line with players like Zach Tom able to ease into the starting left tackle position after giving up only one sack in 489 snaps last season. The Lions are still the more banged-up team — starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai is out along with offensive lineman Matt Nelson. Their defense is without defensive linemen James Houston and Josh Paschal along with cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Detroit held the Falcons to just 183 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 200 rushing yards in their last game. And while the Lions have not allowed more than 95 rushing yards this season after holding Atlanta to 44 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. The hype surrounding this team is enormous right now with them now having won 10 of their last 13 games — but remember that their most important contest during that stretch was in Week 15 last season when a victory on the road against Carolina would have given them the upper hand in controlling their playoff destiny. But they surrendered 570 total yards to the Panthers in a 37-23 loss that ultimately kept them out of the postseason. Admittedly, Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his best at home including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home at Ford Field last year, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. So far this season, those disparate home/road splits have continued for Goff. He has averaged 283.0 passing YPG while completing 73.5% of his passes in his two home starts -- but in his one start on the road this season at Kansas City, those numbers dropped to 253 passing yards and a 62.9% completion percentage. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 road games when favored by three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers certainly had this game circled after the Lions spoiled their opportunity to make the playoffs on the last Sunday night game of the regular season at Lambeau Field. Detroit upset them in both games last season — but Goff only completed 37 of his 60 passes (61.7%) for 361 yards in both games with the Lions averaging just 287.5 total YPG. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (102) plus the point(s) versus the Detroit Lions (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (480) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (479). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 27-24 upset loss to Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (1-1) comes off a 30-23 loss to San Francisco as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Quarterback Joe Burrow remains a game-time decision with his injured calf as of 5:30 PM ET. Even if he does not play and Jake Browning makes his first start of his career, this is a “gotta have it” game for the team that reached the AFC Championship Game last season. The Bengals' defense needs to step up tonight after allowing 382.5 total Yards-Per-Game this season. This is a group that ranked fifth in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ DVOA defensive metrics last season. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by three points or less. They need to get their ground game going to help either Burrow or Browning after rushing for just 66 yards last week while getting outrushed by -112 yards. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after failing to rush for no more than 75 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outrushed by -100 or more yards in their last game. Los Angeles is playing hard for head coach Sean McVay — but talent remains a problem for this team just two seasons removed from their Super Bowl championship. The Rams lost 20 players from last year’s team that was just 5-12. They drafted 14 players last April and signed another 26 undrafted rookies — and these young players are the foundation of this team. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp remains out with his hamstring injury. Los Angeles had a -2 net turnover margin last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (480) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). THE SITUATION: The Los Angeles Rams (1-1) enter this game coming off a 30-23 loss at home to San Francisco as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (0-2) remained winless this season after their 27-24 upset loss at home against Baltimore as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Bengals’ quarterback  Joe Burrow is a game-time decision as he continues to be slowed by a nagging calk injury he suffered in late July. Even if he plays, he is not close to 100% — and this leg injury is impacting his passing ability. He is 0-12 with his passes of at least 15 yards in the air downfield. He is completing only 56.9% of his passes. If he cannot go tonight, then backup Jake Browning will get the call. The former Washington Huskies quarterback is in his third year in the league and has thrown exactly one pass in a regular season game back in Week One. Cincinnati does not have much of a ground game to lean on either. Running back Joe Mixon has lost a step at this point in his career. After averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry last season, he has rushed for 59 and 56 yards on 13 carries in both his games. The Bengals have only rushed for 75 and 66 yards in their first two games — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 99 yards in two straight games. They have been outrushed by 131 and 111 yards in both their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outrushed by -100 or more yards in two straight contests. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss at home against an AFC North rival. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss at home. Furthermore, the Bengals have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And in their last 10 games in September, Cincinnati has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles may be without the injured Cooper Kupp but Matthew Stafford is healthy and operating a ball-control offense behind former Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams. The Rams’ offense has been on the field for 36:17 minutes per game — and that is helping to protect their young defense that is allowing only 272.5 Yards-Per-Game. That defense is certainly helped by a healthy Aaron Donald controlling the line of scrimmage. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home to an NFC West rival. Additionally, the Rams have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Los Angeles did surrender 6.89 Yards-Per-Play to the 49ers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.5 or more YPP. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a road underdog. Furthermore, the Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (477). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-0) has won their opening two games of the season after their 34-28 win against Minnesota as a 6-point favorite back on September 14th. Tampa Bay (2-0) is also unbeaten this season after their 27-17 win against Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles got their ground game going against the hapless Vikings defense in their second game as they rushed for 259 yards. But they have failed to cover the point spread in  8 of their last 13 games after rushing for 250 or more yards. Philadelphia has scored 59 points in their first two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Minnesota only ran the ball nine times in that game — and they picked up only 28 rushing yards. But the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 30 rushing yards in their last contest. Philadelphia ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason even before the injuries in the secondary mentioned earlier — and they will also be without middle linebacker Nakobe Dean leaving that unit thin. After allowing 382 yards to New England in Week One, Minnesota generated another 374 yards against them last week. Tampa Bay has surprised many pundits who expected them to be one of the worst teams in the league despite them outgaining their opponents by +18.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Tom Brady was still effective at quarterback in his swan song season — but his desire to throw the ball left the Buccaneers imbalanced as they were last in the NFL by averaging only 76.9 rushing Yards-Per-Game. It is fashionable to dump on Baker Mayfield — but while he is not going to live up to the hype of being the first pick in the NFL draft, he is still a solid quarterback when healthy. While he is unpopular in the national media, his teammates love him — and he sounds like he has matured since losing the QB job in Carolina last year. His numbers this season are astounding — he is completing 69% of his passes and has yet to commit a turnover. When under pressure this season, Mayfield has completed 15 of 21 passes for 230 yards while posting a QBR of 123. Tampa Bay has converted 20 of their 23 third downs this year. Mayfield has as good of wide receivers as perhaps ever in his career in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With him under center, the team can run the ball a bit more in an attack that is more what head coach Todd Bowles would like to see. The Buccaneers still have many of the players who were on the Super Bowl team in 2021 — nose tackle Vita Via, linebackers Lavonte David, Devin White, and Shaquil Barrett, safety Antoine Winfield, and cornerback Carlton Davis III remain key contributors on the defensive side of the ball. Tampa Bay is allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game and just 302.5 Yards-Per-Game. They have forced five turnovers in their first two games. And the Bucs remain stout in stopping the run under Bowles' leadership — they rank second in the NFL by allowing only 54 rushing YPG. Bowles’ teams going back to the New York Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points — and his teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September. 10* NFL Philadelphia-Tampa Bay ABC-TV Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to build off their 26-22 upset win at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (1-1) comes off a 38-10 loss at Buffalo as a  7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh scored two defensive touchdowns last week to get to 26 points — but they managed only 255 yards on offense. That side of the ball has been anemic with second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett struggling and offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense fire for his play-calling and schemes. Injuries have played a role with wide receiver Dionte Johnson on the injured list with a hamstring. The Steelers' defense gave up 198 rushing yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after alloying 175 or more rushing yards in their last contest. Tightening things up in the ground game was high on the list of priorities after they also gave up 188 rushing yards to the 49ers. The Steelers miss the injured Cam Heyward — but they should be better this week after allowing the Browns to gain 408 yards against them. Pittsburgh has played 34 of their last 54 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards including six of those last eight circumstances. They have played 3 straight Unders when playing on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Additionally, the Steelers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Las Vegas only managed 240 total yards last week against the Bills. They opened their season by beating Denver — but they only scored 17 points in the win. Some of Las Vegas' troubles start with their rushing attack which is averaging only 58 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Josh Jacobs is only generating 1.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Raiders may only have one quality offensive lineman in left tackle Kolton Miller — everyone else may be just replacement-level guys. Las Vegas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. And while they got outrushed by -128 net yards, they have played 4 straight Unders after getting outrushed by -100 or more yards. Furthermore, while the Bills generated 450 yards against them, the Raiders have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to build off their 26-22 upset win at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (1-1) comes off a 38-10 loss at Buffalo as a  7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh may have gutted out the win against AFC North rival on Monday after their defense scored two touchdowns — but head coach Mike Tomlin should have had an attentive audience this week after his team got outgained by -153 net yards. The offense has been anemic with second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett struggling and offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense fire for his play-calling and schemes. But the Steelers have faced two tough defenses in San Francisco and Cleveland who may both have top-five defenses this season. Getting to play against the Raiders should help Pickett have his best game of the season. Las Vegas is only producing pressure on the quarterback on 10.5% of their dropbacks — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 81.7% of their passes. The Steelers defense gave up 198 rushing yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after alloying 175 or more rushing yards in their last contest. Tightening things up in the ground game was high on the list of priorities after they also gave up 188 rushing yards to the 49ers — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in two straight contests. The Steelers miss the injured Cam Heyward — but they should be better this week. After playing their first two games at home, they go on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games after a two-game home stand with three covers in their last four games under those circumstances. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as an underdog of up to three points. Las Vegas opened their season by beating a now 0-3 Denver team that just gave up 70 points this afternoon — but they only scored 17 points in the win. The Raiders may have been exposed last week against the Bills — and a bounce back may not be in the cards as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games after a loss by 21 or more points. Some of Las Vegas' troubles start with their rushing attack which is averaging only 58 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Josh Jacobs is only generating 1.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Raiders may only have one quality offensive lineman in left tackle Kolton Miller — everyone else may be just replacement-level guys. Is second-year general manager Dave Ziegler simply continuing the mismanagement of talent evaluation that was endemic in the Jon Gruden residency in Vegas with general manager Mike Mayock (plucked away from the television booth)? Ziegler has continued an approach in the NFL draft that appears to be based on only watching nationally televised games in the 3:30 PM ET and prime-time windows. Signing linebacker Chandler Jones as a free agent last season seemed ill-advised — and it has been a disaster with the 33-year-old now away from the team due to personal issues. Mayock buried this roster through years of over-drafting Clemson and Alabama players that were busts on and off the field. And this team is favored? The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won nine of their last 12 games with T.J. Watt healthy and on the field. They have also won four of their five prime-time games with Pickett at quarterback. The Raiders have lost all three of their prime-time games under head coach Josh McDaniels. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (467) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (468). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-1) evened their record this season with their 31-20 upset victory at Houston as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (2-0) comes off a 27-24 upset win in Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games after a double-digit win. While they will be without rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson for this game, they are in good hands with the veteran Gardner Minshew who has a career 63.0% completion percentage with 57 touchdown passes and only 24 interceptions. The Colts averaged 6.95 Yards-Per-Play last week with Minshew playing most of the game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after generating at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Remember that Minshew played under Indianapolis rookie head coach Shane Steichen last year when they were both with Philadelphia — so he is very familiar with his schemes. Baltimore is dealing with a bevy of injuries. Offensive linemen Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum are out on offense. The defense will be without safety Marcus Williams and cornerback Marlon Humphrey along with outside linebacker Ode Owen and safety Ar’Darius Washington. The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games favored by up to seven points — and the Colts have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games as an underdog. 8* NFL Big Dog Surprise with the Indianapolis Colts (467) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (455) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (456). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-2) has lost their opening two games of the season after their 31-20 upset loss to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (1-1) took their first loss of the season in a 17-9 setback at home to Kansas City as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss at home. And while that game finished Over the 40.5-point Total, they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Houston will be without starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil who is dealing with an injury. With rookie C.J. Stroud nursing an injured right shoulder, look for offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick to dial back the passing game to protect their franchise quarterback. The Texans go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Texans have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with  Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (455) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (457) minus the points versus the New York Jets (458). THE SITUATION: New England (0-2) has lost their opening two games after their 24-17 loss at home to Miami on Sunday night as a 1-point underdog. New York (1-1) comes off a 30-10 loss at Dallas as an 8-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England will be playing with desperation this afternoon as they look to avoid starting the season 0-3 which will all but ruin their postseason aspirations — especially with two of the losses being against divisional rivals. It is fashionable to dump on head coach Bill Belichick because he has not been as successful as Tom Brady after their split in 2020 — but his teams have not gone worse than 7-9 in the three seasons since (despite being ravaged with roster attrition in that 2020 COVID season). The Patriots reached the playoffs in the 2021 season even with a rookie at quarterback — an achievement that would deserve Coach of the Year accolades if the individual was an “offensive” coach who once sat at the lunch table with Sean McVay. Belichick can still coach — he just has a different mentality that the en vogue methods of the young crop of offensive play-caller/head coaches. The defensive mentality coming from Belichick raises the floor of minimum expectations (like Mike Tomlin) — and that is why his teams have not bottomed out like McVay’s Rams did last season. So let’s keep some perspective: the Patriots lost by one scoring possession to both the NFC representatives in the Super Bowl (Philadelphia) and an AFC playoff team last week. This remains a team that outscored their opponents last season despite an 8-9 record. Belichick’s Patriots have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home. They were outgained by -101 net yards last week with the Dolphins averaging 6.48 Yards-Per-Play — but New England has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 6 or more YPP. The Patriots ranked eighth in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to just 322.0 YPG - and they are only giving up 320 YPG this season despite playing the potent Eagles and Dolphins offenses. The other side of the ball is in much better hands under offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien after the Matt Patricia/Joe Judge coordinator experiments of last season. Quarterback Mac Jones has a better relationship with O’Brien — and he does lead the NFL in completions this season. He gives the Patriots a big edge this afternoon when compared to the Jets’ Zach Wilson. The third-year pro has been eaten alive by Belichick’s defenses in his career — in his four games starting against New England, Wilson has posted a 50.8 Passer Rating with only two touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The Jets lost all four games while scoring less than 10 PPG. This is a volatile situation with Wilson their best option under center after the Aaron Rodgers injury — and further failures against the dreaded Patriots today may quickly pick the scab of his unpopularity inside the locker room and with the Jets’ fans. In his 23 career starts, Wilson has 22 interceptions — and he is last in the NFL so far this season in Passer Rating and completion percentage. In theory, New York has a robust rushing attack to help him out — but they only ran for 64 yards last week against the Cowboys. The Jets’ offensive line is a mess with the underachieving Mekhi Bechton at right tackle — and now left tackle Duane Brown is out for this game with a shoulder and hip issues. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: With Tropical Rainstorm Ophelia impacting the Meadowlands, rain and wind are expected for this game. The last time the Patriots started 0-3 was in 2000 — so the Belichick approach of being patient and waiting for the other guy to start making mistakes will likely be the prudent approach under these weather conditions. As it is, New England has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored by seven points or less — and the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as a home underdog of seven points or less. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (457) minus the points versus the New York Jets (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (461) and the Miami Dolphins (462). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-2) has lost their opening two games after their 35-33 upset loss to Washington as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (2-0) has won their first two games after their 24-17 win at New England as a 1-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Denver has not covered the point spread yet under new head coach Sean Payton — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They did average 7.25 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Quarterback Russell Wilson is getting sacked once in every eight dropbacks. With the challenge of playing in the South Beach heat against this potent Dolphins offense, look for Payton to try to shorten this game with his rushing attack behind running backs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. The defense will be without Justin Simmons and Frank Harris this afternoon, but this remains a good group that is allowing only 324.5 total Yards-Per-Game this season. Denver ranked seventh in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to 320.0 YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total. The Broncos have also played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a road dog. Additionally, Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Miami has played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Toal at home after beating an AFC East rival on the road in their last game. And while they outgained the Patriots by +101 net yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by +100 or more yards. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 17 games at Hard Rock Stadium. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by seven or fewer points. Additionally, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in September. Head coach Mike McDaniel will be without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle who is out with a concussion. Without his deep threat, the dynamo of the offense changes — and Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can either double-team Tyreek Hill or rely on shutdown cornerback Pat Surtain II to cover him.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Dolphins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (461) and the Miami Dolphins (462). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Dallas on Sunday Night Football with a 31-28 victory at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-0) is unbeaten in their first two games after their 30-23 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants will be without running back Saquon Barkley and left tackle Andrew Thomas due to injuries tonight — and that is not ideal for an offense that had not scored a single point until they exploded for 31 second-half points last week against the woeful Cardinals. New York has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played off their last 17 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less. The Giants’ defense is playing well as they are only allowing 322 YPG. Remember that the first two touchdowns that Dallas scored against them in that 40-0 debacle were from a blocked field goal attempt and then an interception returned for a TD. To address their run defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, they signed defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches along with linebacker Bobby Okereke in free agency who all have good reputations as run stuffers. In that opening-week loss to the Cowboys, the Giants did hold Dallas to just 122 rushing yards on 20 carries. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win against an NFC West rival in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and quarterback Brock Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury — he was considered 50-50% to play yesterday and will be a game-time decision tonight. Even if he plays, he may not be 100% — and he is important to the offense as a legitimate deep threat who opens up the middle of the field. This will be the Niners' first home game this season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home when favored in the 7.5-14 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday night. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Dallas on Sunday Night Football with a 31-28 victory at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-0) is unbeaten in their first two games after their 30-23 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: We bet numbers rather than teams — and expecting the 49ers to win by more than 10 points is probably too much to ask. New York certainly qualifies as an ugly underdog after the humiliating 40-0 loss on national television to the Cowboys — and then they continued to look terrible in the first half against the woeful Cardinals by going into the locker room trailing by a 20-0 score. But the Giants deserve credit for picking themselves off the mat by outscoring Arizona by a 31-7 score in the second half to secure the victory. Head coach Brian Daboll took over the play-calling of the offense in the second half — and that unit clearly got energized by that decision. Quarterback Daniel Jones completed 26 of 37 passes for 321 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards with another touchdown. I think everyone understands that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. But last year’s good fortunes do not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. Daboll immediately fixed Jones’ turnover problems as the fifth-year pro threw only five interceptions — and his 1.1% interception rate was the best in the NFL for regular starting QBs. Can the team can add team speed, find more playmakers on offense to stretch the field, and improve their run defense? If so, then they could certainly develop into a more deserving playoff team this season. Football Outsiders' weighted DVOA metrics ranked them as the seventh-best team in the league, for what that is worth. To address their run defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, they signed defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches along with linebacker Bobby Okereke in free agency who all have good reputations as run stuffers. In that opening-week loss to the Cowboys, the Giants did hold Dallas to just 122 rushing yards on 20 carries. A healthier wide receiver room will help with playmakers to help Jones in the passing game — and they traded for Darren Waller from Las Vegas to give him a viable number-one target. He led the team in targets last week while catching six balls for 76 yards. New York drafted Jalin Hyatt from Tennessee in the third round in the draft last spring — and Daboll got him going in the second half last week with the deep threat catching two balls for 89 yards. Going inside the numbers of that Cowboys debacle, the Giants started well by driving down the field for a field goal opportunity. But after that kick got blocked and returned for a special teams touchdown for Dallas — and then Jones threw a pick-six later in the first quarter — the momentum in that game became overwhelming for the Cowboys who could then pin their ears back and rush the passer to protect their big lead (in rainy weather). There are not many NFL teams who were not going to get blown out after such an auspicious start against this Dallas team. And New York was still hungover from that bad game traveling out west to play a bad Cardinals team. But I expect their best game of the season in a situation where no one expects them to compete. I like that they stayed out west this week to prepare for this game. The defense is playing well — they are only allowing 322 YPG. Despite getting outscored and outgained last year, only three of their regular season losses were by double-digits. They have not been given any favors regarding injuries with running back Saquon Barkley, left tackle Andrew Thomas, and linebacker Azeez Ojulari all out for this game. But backup running back Matt Breida is a veteran who is a capable backup. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a win on the road by three points or less. Expect New York to get off to a better start in this one after two straight disastrous first halves — they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after allowing 17 or more points in the first half of two straight games. The Giants averaged 8.28 Yards-Per-Play last week (even with the Barkley injury) — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 road games after generating at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. And in their last 10 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, they have covered the point spread 7 times. San Francisco may be a bit overvalued coming into this third game. They easily beat a Pittsburgh team that is experiencing major issues on the offensive side of the ball. And while the Rams are playing better than expected this season, it is not a good sign for the 49ers that they were outgained by that Los Angeles team by 21 net yards. The Niners are benefitting from winning the turnover battle in their first two games with a +3 net turnover margin — and that is something Daboll will preach to his team to not play into. The 49ers may have the best roster in the NFL but the biggest question remains: how good will their play be at the quarterback position? For those of us who handicapped every Brock Purdy game when he played in college at Iowa State, we appreciate why he was Mr. Irrelevant in the NFL draft. With 48 career starts, he has tons of experience which helps his decision-making. And because he is accurate in the short and intermediate passing game, perhaps he is a great fit for the Kyle Shanahan offense. But he lacks arm strength for a dynamic vertical passing game — and he threw too many interceptions for the Cyclones when asked to be a gunslinger. In the playoffs last season, Seattle, Dallas, and then Philadelphia exposed his tendency to bail to his left when under pressure (and it contributed to his wrist injury). The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury — he was considered 50-50% to play yesterday and will be a game-time decision tonight. Even if he plays, he may not be 100% — and he is important to the offense as a legitimate deep threat who opens up the middle of the field. This will be the Niners' first home game this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 62 home games after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: This situation is similar to when the Giants played in Dallas on a short week on Thanksgiving as a 10-point underdog — and they covered the point spread in a 28-20 loss in that game. New York has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games played on a Thursday — and San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games played on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (1-0) opened their season with a 24-3 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-7 loss to San Francisco as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland was impressive at home against the Bengals as they held them to just 142 total yards of offense. This Browns defense has the potential to be special with the addition of defensive end Za’Darius Smith in a trade with Minnesota who gives them a legitimate pass rush threat to complement Myles Garrett (replacing JaDeveon Clowney who perpetually disappointed in that role the last few seasons). The team also brought in former Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator after successful previous stints with the Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles. But quarterback Deshaun Watson continued to lack the spark he demonstrated in his time at Houston — he completed only 16 of 29 passes for just 154 yards. The growing concern with Watson is that the year and a half away from football due to his injury and then suspension has zapped the juice that was his x-factor in making him a special player. The Cleveland offense is dealing with some injuries themselves. Right tackle Jack Conklin is out the season with a torn ACL and MCL — and the Browns offensive line unit is dealing with some other guys that are banged up. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is questionable with a groin — and his absence would leave them without a reliable number-one target since Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore have not taken advantage of their past opportunities. Cleveland has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win at home by three or more touchdowns. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than six points in their last contest. They held Joe Burrow to just 67 passing yards in that game — and they have played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 passing yards in their last contest. But after generating only 144 net yards in their own passing attack, the Browns have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh only generated 239 total yards last week against the 49ers — and now the offense will be without wide receiver Diontae Johnson who is feeling with a hamstring injury. The Steelers have played 5 straight Unders after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by 21 or more points. Additionally, Pittsburgh has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Steelers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Head coach Mike Tomlin should have his defense ready to play despite the injury to defensive end Cam Hayward. They will miss Heyward on their defensive line — but they have depth with their defensive ends. Remember, this group was much better with a healthy T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh ranked tenth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.4 Points-Per-Game. They have played 12 of their last 18 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 straight Unders in the opening two weeks of the new season.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC North rivals — and Cleveland has also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (292) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (291). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-7 loss to San Francisco as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (1-0) opened their season with a 24-3 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was overwhelmed by the 49ers last week — but head coach Mike Tomlin should rally his troops in this divisional rivalry game tonight despite injuries to defensive end Cam Hayward and wide receiver Dionte Johnson. The Steelers closed last year strong by winning five of their last seven games — and the reports out of training camp were that they were one of the sharpest teams in the preseason — so that flat effort last week was surprising (and perhaps a statement as to how good the Niners are). Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 21 or more points. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing 30 or more points. Second-year Kenny Pickett threw two interceptions last week which was out of character for him after he only threw one interception in his last eight starts last season. While he will miss Johnson as one of his targets, he still has second-year wideout George Pickens who is poised for a breakout season. Don’t be surprised if Pittsburgh deploys two tight ends frequently in this game with rookie Darnell Washington getting plenty of snaps — he is a massive 6’7 target who was underutilized in the passing game at Georgia. The Steelers will miss Heyward on their defensive line — but they have depth with their defensive ends. Remember, this group is much better with a healthy T.J. Watt — they had an 8-2 record when he was healthy last season. Pittsburgh ranked tenth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.4 Points-Per-Game. Cleveland was impressive at home against a Bengals team that looked rusty on offense after Joe Burrow missed most of the preseason with a calf injury. But quarterback Deshaun Watson continued to lack the spark he demonstrated in his time at Houston — he completed only 16 of 29 passes for just 154 yards. The growing concern with Watson is that the year and a half away from football due to his injury and then suspension has zapped his juice which was his x-factor in making him a special player. The Cleveland offense is dealing with some injuries themselves. Right tackle Jack Conklin is out the season with a torn ACL and MCL — and the Browns offensive line unit is dealing with some other guys that are banged up. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is questionable with a groin — and his absence would leave them without a reliable number-one target since Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore have not taken advantage of their past opportunities. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games on the road after a double-digit win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after winning their last game by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 21 or more points. Additionally, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against an AFC North rival. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. They did outgain the Bengals by +158 net yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after outgaining their last opponent by +100 or more yards. And in their last 15 games as the favorite, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won 19 straight games at home at Heinz Field against the Browns — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Pittsburgh Steelers (292) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (291). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). THE SITUATION: Carolina (0-1) looks to rebound from their 24-10 loss at Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (1-0) comes off a 16-15 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina head coach Frank Reich should have his team ready to play tonight. In his time with the Indianapolis Colts where they posted a winning 40-33-1 record during the regular season, those teams also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss to a division rival. His teams also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The Panther endured a -3 net turnover margin in that game — but Reich’s teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Reich takes over a pretty good roster — the team went 6-6 in their last 12 games after Matt Rhule got fired. They outgained the Falcons last week by a 281 to 221 margin in yardage. Atlanta managed only 91 passing yards — and Reich’s teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after holding their last opponent to less than 150 passing yards. New Orleans outlasted the Titans last week — but head coach Dennis Allen’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home. Allen’s teams in New Orleans and previously with the Oakland Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in September. The Saints will still be without Alvin Kamara who is serving a three-game suspension to begin the year.

FINAL TAKE: Allen’s teams have not been as reliable in situations like this when they are expected to win or be in a close game. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL New Orleans-Carolina ESPN Special with the Carolina Panthers (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (288) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (287). THE SITUATION: New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 25-10 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (1-0) won their opening game of the season with a 36-34 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England did a great job of containing the stout Eagles offense last week by holding them to just 251 total yards — and seven of Philly’s points came off a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have a much better defensive strategy for their divisional rivals this week than what the Chargers were able to muster. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss at home. What is so frustrating about head coach Brandon Staley for Los Angeles is that his defense bottled up Tagovailoa last season by pressing their wide receivers on the line of scrimmage and then taking away the middle of the field. While Staley abandoned that plan last week perhaps playing (and losing) a three-dimensional chess game no one else was playing, look for Belichick to take that approach and adjust his personnel while engaging in a rope-a-dope scheme that encourages the Dolphins to run the football. The Patriots have held Tyreek Hill to less than 100 receiving yards in five straight games. Miami comes into this game banged up on their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and Robert Jones dealing with injuries. While Brandon Staley’s Chargers defense did not do much to challenge their offensive line last week with Tua Tagovailoa untouched in the picket all game, that is not likely to be the case against this stout Patriots pass rush led by linebacker Matthew Judon. After his 15.5 sacks last season, he entered the season with 28 sacks in his 34 career games wearing a New England uniform. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a narrow win on the road by three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Miami stays on the road for the second straight week as they travel across the country to the northeast from southern California — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (288) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-0) won their opening game of the season with a 36-34 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 25-10 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami comes into this game banged up on their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and Robert Jones dealing with injuries. While Brandon Staley’s Chargers defense did not do much to challenge their offensive line last week with Tua Tagovailoa untouched in the picket all game, that is not likely to be the case against this stout Patriots pass rush led by linebacker Matthew Judon. After his 15.5 sacks last season, he entered the season with 28 sacks in his 34 career games wearing a New England uniform. The Dolphins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Miami stays on the road for the second straight week as they travel across the country to the northeast from southern California — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last contest. The Dolphins have also played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory as an underdog. Miami generated 536 total yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. And while they overcame a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. New England did a great job of containing the stout Eagles offense last week by holding them to just 251 total yards — and seven of Philly’s points came off a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have a much better defensive strategy for their divisional rivals this week. What is so frustrating about Staley is that his defense bottled up Tagovailoa last season by pressing their wide receivers on the line of scrimmage and then taking away the middle of the field. While Staley abandoned that plan last week perhaps playing (and losing) a three-dimensional chess game no one else was playing, look for Belichick to take that approach and adjust his personnel while engaging in a rope-a-dope scheme that encourages the Dolphins to run the football. The Patriots have held Tyreek Hill to less than 100 receiving yards in five straight games. But New England has their own injury issues on the offensive line with starters Trent Brown and Cole Strange along with rookie Sidy Cow all questionable and free agent tackle Riley Reiff on the four-week injured list. The Patriots have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored — and New England has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (279) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (280). THE SITUATION: New York (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 40-0 loss at home to Dallas as a 3-point underdog last Sunday night. Arizona (0-1) comes off a 20-16 loss at Washington as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE POINTS: A team could not look worse than New York did last week — but the unfolding game script needs to be taken into context. Spotting a team with a great defense like the Dallas Cowboys a special teams touchdown on a blocked field goal (a 10-point swing) and then a 22-yard interception touchdown in the first quarter in a game being played in the rain is a disaster that would overwhelm most/every team in the league. Momentum is real as good thoughts and positivity fuel better performance — and bad thoughts and negativity fertilize the ground that generates mistakes. The Giants are simply not that bad of a team (because no one is) — and now they have something to prove after being embarrassed on national television. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home by double-digits. If there is a silver lining this week for New York, it is that they get to play the tanking Arizona Cardinals. Since a 10-2 start to the 2021 season, the Cardinals have a 5-19 record. Their quarterback Joshua Dobbs was out of the league until December of last season — making him the ideal signal caller for a team trying to not be too obvious that they are trying to lose games. Kyler Murray is recovering from a torn ACL and is not likely to play this year. Arizona has Houston’s first-round draft pick next year — and they want to couple that with their own high draft pick in what would be the second season under new general manager Manti Ossenfort. They released wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins because he caught too many passes. The Cardinals defense lost J.J. Watt to retirement and Zach Allen in free agency. Special teamers are now slotted higher up the depth chart and will be expected to play. The soft tank job is in full display. A defensive touchdown made last week’s score look closer than reality. Arizona gained only 13 first downs and managed just 210 total yards. Washington head coach Ron Rivera was content to game-script his way to a four-point victory.                                                                                                

FINAL TAKE: New York was a solid road warrior last year that covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and the Cardinals won only one game at home last season while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games. There will not be many opportunities this season to fade Arizona without having to lay a touchdown this season. 8* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the New York Giants (279) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (277). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-1) lost their opening game of the season in a 24-3 loss at Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (1-0) won their first game of the new season with their 25-9 victory against Houston as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: The annual Baltimore Ravens injury-fest is already in full swing this season — this group is a M*A*S*H unit in just the second week of the season in such a way that makes an already good situation great. On offense, the Ravens' star left tackle Ronnie Stanley and their rock-solid center Tyler Linderbaum are out this week along with top running back J.K. Dobbins who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. On defense, star free safety Marcus Williams is out with a pectoral injury, and their best cornerback Marlon Humphrey is out with a foot injury. Those are five starters gone for this divisional rivalry game — including two on the offensive line and two in the secondary against Joe Burrow and company — for a team that got outgained by the woeful Texans last week. The offensive line was already facing the challenge of replacing left guard Ben Powers who left in the offseason. And this is an offense in transition under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken — they gained only 265 total yards against Houston. Lamar Jackson’s contract dispute was finally settled in the offseason — but the removal of previous OC Greg Roman seems to suggest that Jackson and the organization want to rely on Jackson’s arm more than his legs. Even if Jackson can be a successful gunslinger at this level, he may not have the offensive line this afternoon to execute that vision. As it is, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home. Additionally, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread 5 straight games after a double-digit win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing less than 10 points in their last contest. They go on the road for the first time this season having failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Cincinnati was sluggish in the rain last week with the offense only gaining 142 total yards. Being on the field for only 24:10 minutes did not help — but Burrow was rusty after missing most of the preseason with a calf injury. The Browns' defense is very good this season — so playing them in bad weather when already being out of synch was far from optimal. But now this group wants to avoid another 0-2 start like last season — although the Bengals did eventually rebound to reach the AFC Championship Game. Another week of practice should have Burrow back in the groove — he competed 67% of his passes in Week Two last year despite being on the road against the stout Dallas defense. Cincinnati has covered the pints spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC North rival. They also have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Burrow loves playing against the Ravens — with his perfect 3-0 record at home against Baltimore, he has averaged 316 passing Yards-Per-Game with seven touchdown passes and a Passer Rating go 110. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against AFC rivals — and Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against the AFC North. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (104) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-0) comes off a 25-10 win at New England as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Minnesota (0-1) opened their season with a 20-17 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia should feel good about their win on the road against the Patriots last week — but they will know not to hang on their laurels of that game after getting outgained by -131 net yards. They controlled the game early by taking a 16-0 first-quarter lead that was fueled by a 70-yard interception return for a touchdown — so the game script became for them to hold on to that lead (which they did). Philadelphia should be more aggressive on offense after only gaining 251 yards last week. The Eagles ranked third in the NFL by scoring 28.1 PPG and generating 389.1 total YPG — and their offense should be just as good this season given their continuity at wide receiver and the offensive line to help out quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Patriots presented more of a challenge from their defense. Now they face a Minnesota defense that was second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 388.7 total YPG — and they let several veterans go in the offseason as they test out the younger players in their rebuild on the fly. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by six points or less. Furthermore, Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Minnesota got upset by the Buccaneers despite outgaining them by +127 next yards. Minnesota passed the ball in 75.9% of their non-kicking snaps on offense with Kirk Cousins completing 33 of 44 passes for 344 yards. The Vikings may have lost any semblance of balance on offense given the decision to release running back Dalvin Cook in the offseason. After averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season as Cook’s backup, Alexander Pattison only rushed for 34 yards on 11 carries last week with Minnesota only running the ball 17 times overall for a mere 41 yards. Given injuries on their offensive line, it may be even more difficult for the Vikings to establish a credible running game. Center Garrett Bradbury is out for this game with a back injury while left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable with an ankle injury. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after passing for 300 or more yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. After winning all 11 of their games decided by one-scoring possession, the Regression Gods have been waiting all offseason to hand the Vikings in a loss decided by one score. This remains a team that got outscored by -0.2 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -27.2 net Yards-Per-Game after getting embarrassed at home in the playoffs by the New York Giants in their 31-24 loss. Minnesota enacted a “competitive rebuild” under first-year general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah last year — but somehow won 13 regular season games. The rebuild continues with the Adofo-Mensah dumping bigger salaries including running back Dalvin Cook. A .500 or worse record this year is likely if the Regression Gods have anything to say about it.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games when favored. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (104) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Philadelphia Eagles (104). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-1) opened their season with a 20-17 upset loss at home to Tampa Bay as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) comes off a 25-10 win at New England as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings got upset by the Buccaneers despite outgaining them by +127 next yards. Minnesota passed the ball in 75.9% of their non-kicking snaps on offense with Kirk Cousins completing 33 of 44 passes for 344 yards. The Vikings may have lost any semblance of balance on offense given the decision to release running back Dalvin Cook in the offseason. After averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season as Cook’s backup, Alexander Pattison only rushed for 34 yards on 11 carries last week with Minnesota only running the ball 17 times overall for a mere 41 yards. Given injuries on their offensive line, it may be even more difficult for the Vikings to establish a credible running game. Center Garrett Bradbury is out for this game with a back injury while left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable with an ankle injury. This looks like a heavy pass script coming from head coach Kevin O’Connell who calls the plays. Don’t be surprised if Kirk Cousins throws 50 passes tonight against a depleted Eagles secondary that is missing cornerback James Bradbury to the concussion protocol and safety Reed Blankenship to a rib injury. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after passing for 300 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Vikings have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They go on the road on the short week where they have played 9 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 5 straight Overs as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Philadelphia ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason even before the injuries in the secondary mentioned earlier — and they will also be without middle linebacker Nakobe Dean leaving that unit thin while defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is questionable. The Eagles gave up 382 total yards to the Patriots last week. But Philadelphia should play better on offense after only gaining 251 yards last week. The Eagles ranked third in the NFL by scoring 28.1 PPG and generating 389.1 total YPG — and their offense should be just as good this season given their continuity at wide receiver and the offensive line to help out quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Minnesota defense was second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 388.7 total YPG — and they let several veterans go in the offseason as they test out the younger players in their rebuild on the fly. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5-49-point range — and they have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last season with the Eagles winning at home by a  24-7 score on September 19th. That final score was misleading as the Vikings got inside the Philadelphia 27-yard line four times — and then twice inside their 10-yard line — but failed to score a single point on those four drives. If Minnesota scores more from those drives, the game script changes with Philly likely scoring in the 30s. Expect a higher-scoring game in this rematch. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month is with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (103) and the Philadelphia Eagles (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) comes off a 7-10 record last season.  Buffalo (0-0) had a 14-4 season which ended in a 27-10 loss at Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: It should be an electric environment tonight at MetLife Stadium — between Monday Night Football, the anniversary of 9/11, and the debut of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the crowd should play a big role in tonight’s game. New York hopes to improve an offense that ranked only 29th in the NFL by scoring 17.4 PPG. While I’m not sure how effective Rodgers will be at 39-years- old, the offense can only improve with his steady hand under center as compared to Zach Wilson who has 18 interceptions in his 12 career starts. They did sign Dalvin Cook as a free agent — I look for New York to lean on their rushing attack in this contest along with their outstanding defense. The Jets ranked fourth in the NFL last season by holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG and 311.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Buffalo can be reckless with the football — they were second in the NFL with 27 turnovers last season. Quarterback Josh Allen threw 14 interceptions and fumbled the ball six times last year — so perhaps we will be on the side of a defensive touchdown in this game after being a defensive touchdown/special teams touchdown magnet in our plays since the Brian Branch’s interception return for a touchdown for the Detroit Lions off the hands of Kadarious Toney (one of his four drops) on Thursday night? Dare to dream! Allen still lacks a reliable second option in the passing game after wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Gabe Davis only had a 51.6% catch percentage rate last season — and he had a 30.3% success rate with contested passes last year which is a bad sign when confronting the two great cornerbacks the Jets have in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. The defense took a step back last season after defensive end Von Miller got injured. The Bills' pass rush remains a question.

FINAL TAKE: New York’s defense dominated Allen and the Buffalo offense when they played at MetLife with the Jets winning by a 20-17 score as a 10.5-point underdog. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 appearances on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New York  Jets (482). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (0-0) comes off a 14-4 season which ended in a 27-10 loss at Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New York (0-0) finished 7-10 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo looks poised to lean on their running game more this season with the acquisition of running backs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. The Bills have lacked the ability to sustain a four-minute offense when they need to protect a lead in the fourth quarter. With Harris coming over from New England and Murray being signed from Denver, Buffalo now has two bigger running backs to use in a power running game. Look for offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to attempt to establish a power-rushing attack behind their solid offensive line against the stout Jets defense. The Bills' defense should be outstanding once again this season. They ranked second in the NFL by allowing only 17.9 Points-Per-Game last season. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. Additionally, the Bills have played 11 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. And in their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. New York hopes to improve an offense that ranked only 29th in the NFL by scoring 17.4 PPG. Aaron Rodgers is now under center — but I am not expecting him to light up the scoreboard after not getting much playing time in the preseason. The Jets are shaky with their offensive line — especially at right tackle with Mekhi Becton. They did sign Dalvin Cook as a free agent — I look for New York to lean on their rushing attack in this contest along with their outstanding defense. The Jets ranked fourth in the NFL last season by holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG and 311.4 total Yards-Per-Game. New York has played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the first half of the season.   The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in September. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New York  Jets (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (480) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (479). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) comes off a 10-8-1 season after their 38-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Divisional playoffs.
 Dallas (0-0) kicks off their season coming off a 13-6 campaign after their 19-12 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York left a bad impression the last time they were on national television in that 31-point loss to the Eagles in the playoffs. When considering that they got outscored by -0.3 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -18.3 net Yards-Per-Game, it’s not a very hot take to suggest they were perhaps overrated after their playoff win the week before at Minnesota. But that is not enough of a reason to simply discount their ability to progress this season. They should be a better team on both sides of the ball in the second season under head coach Brian Daboll. Daniel Jones was in desperate need of help in the passing game — and the Giants signed tight end Darren Waller in free agency and drafted a deep threat in Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt. I also expect a leap in play from their defense under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. Second-year linebacker Kayvan Thibodeaux looks poised for a breakout season in becoming one of the better pass rushers in the league. Nose tackle Dexter Lawrence is a load patrolling the middle of the defensive line. Their run defense was a problem last year after allowing their opponents to generate 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 27th in the NFL — but signing defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson addresses that problem as he thrives in stopping the run. The Giants added rookies to their defensive backfield — and first-rounder Deonte Banks from Maryland is a great fit for Martindale’s system given his size and speed. Martindale loves to blitz — and that could be trouble for the Cowboys that have injury issues on their offensive line. Second-year left tackle Tyler Smith is doubtful with an ankle injury. Veteran right tackle Tyron Smith is questionable with his chronic hamstring issues. That spells trouble for what Dallas wants to do on offense. Tyler Smith was their first-round pick from Tulsa last year who replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle with his skills declining (along with being injured all the time). Moving Tyron Smith to left tackle may not be optimal — even if he can play tonight. Quarterback Dak Prescott has lost a step or two with his mobility so keeping a stable pocket is more important than ever for the Cowboys’ success on offense. As it is, Dallas looks to run the ball a bit more this year with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over the play-calling for the now-departed Kellen Moore. The new offensive coordinator is Brian Schottenheimer who is comfortable overseeing a run-first offense. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New York has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the first half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range — and the Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with New York Giants (480) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) kicks off their season coming off a 13-6 campaign after their 19-12 loss at San Francisco in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs. New York (0-0) comes off a 10-8-1 season after their 38-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Divisional playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have injury issues on their offensive line. Second-year left tackle Tyler Smith is doubtful with an ankle injury. Veteran right tackle Tyron Smith is questionable with his chronic hamstring issues. That spells trouble for what Dallas wants to do on offense. Tyler Smith was their first-round pick from Tulsa last year who replaced Tyron Smith at left tackle with his skills declining (along with being injured all the time). Moving Tyron Smith to left tackle may not be optimal — even if he can play tonight. Quarterback Dak Prescott has lost a step or two with his mobility so keeping a stable pocket is more than important than ever for the Cowboys’ success on offense. As it is, Dallas looks to run the ball a bit more this year with head coach Mike McCarthy taking over the play-calling for the now-departed Kellen Moore. The new offensive coordinator is Brian Schottenheimer who is comfortable overseeing a run-first offense. The Cowboys will lean on their outstanding defense ranked fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 20.1 Points-Per-Game. Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total when favored. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Giants’ running back has scored only three touchdowns in the eight games that he has played against the Cowboys. While most of the attention to New York in the second seasons under head coach Brian Daboll goes to Daniel Jones and the potential (or limitations) of their offense), I expect a leap in play from their defense under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. Second-year linebacker Kayvan Thibodeaux looks poised for a breakout season in becoming one of the better pass rushers in the league. Nose tackle Dexter Lawrence is a load patrolling the middle of the defensive line. Their run defense was a problem last year after allowing their opponents to generate 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 27th in the NFL — but signing defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson addresses that problem as he thrives in stopping the run. The Giants added rookies to their defensive backfield — and first-rounder Deonte Banks from Maryland is a great fit for Martindale’s system given his size and speed. Martindale loves to blitz — and that could be trouble for the injured Cowboys offensive line and Prescott. New York has played 11 of their last 15 home games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. The Giants have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (479) and the New York Giants (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (469) and the Chicago Bears (470). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (0-0) begins the post-Aaron Rodgers era coming off an 8-9 season. Chicago (0-0) looks to improve on their 3-14 campaign last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jordan Love era begins for the Packers as he makes his second career start this afternoon. He is probably not going to continue the outstanding legacy that Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers have established with this organization in the last three decades — Hall of Fame quarterbacks do not grow on trees. But while I think he can develop into a solid NFL quarterback, he probably still needs some time to develop after only taking 157 snaps in his three seasons in the NFL. Even if head coach Matt LaFleur wanted to “Let Love Cook” in this opening game, injuries at wide receiver would have probably changed that plan. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson is out with a hamstring injury and second-year wide receiver Romeo Doubs is questionable with a hamstring. The remaining depth chart in the wide receiver room are rookies. Expect a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in the running game this afternoon. I have a suspicion that an aggressive rushing attack is what LaFleur would have preferred anyways even with Rodgers as his quarterback the last few seasons. The Bears ranked second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 157.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game last season. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. Chicago certainly wants to pass the ball more after ranking last in the league by averaging only 130.5 passing YPG last season. Acquiring wide receiver D.J. Moore when they traded down in the draft with Carolina gives third-year quarterback Justin Fields the number one wide receiver he has lacked. But I do not expect second-year head coach Matt Eberflus to abandon his defensive roots in game-planning for this contest. The Bears defense dealt with several injuries in the preseason so cohesion is a concern. Look for Chicago to focus on their ground game with Khalil Herbert and free agent signee D’Onta Foreman. Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. They have also played 5 of their last 8 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 range.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Toal in the opening two weeks of the season.  Don’t be surprised if this game is over by 7 PM ET/4 PM PT despite the late start — both teams are going to run the ball and burn clock. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (469) and the Chicago Bears (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (457) and the Cleveland Browns (458). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-0) comes off a 14-5 season that ended in a 23-20 loss at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Cleveland (0-0) missed the playoffs with a 7-10 record last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns expect to become a top-ten defense this season after making some significant investments on that side of the ball in the offseason. To shore up a run defense that allowed 135.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game last season, they signed 325-lb defensive tackle Calvin Tomlinson to control the middle of their defensive line. They added free safety Juan Thornhill from Kansas City to bolster an already good defensive backfield that ranked fifth in the NFL by allowing only 20 touchdown passes last season. And they replaced defensive coordinator Joe Woods with former Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz who has an excellent reputation as a defensive coordinator with his time in Tennessee and Philadelphia. Schwartz joins a group that knows the Bengals very well as a divisional rival. Cleveland has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. Cincinnati has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC rivals. Quarterback Joe Burrow got back on the practice field this week after missing most of the preseason due to a calf injury. Remember that Burrow started slowly last season after missing most of training camp to another injury — he threw four interceptions and took seven sacks in a 23-20 loss in overtime to Pittsburgh. The Bengals open this season on the road where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Cincinnati has also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total in September.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (457) and the Cleveland Browns (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). THE SITUATION: Detroit (0-0) comes off a 9-8 campaign last year where they missed the playoffs. Kansas City (0-0) returns to action as the reigning Super Bowl champions after their 38-35 victory against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs scored 29.2 Points-Per-Game in the regular season while generating 414.1 total Yards-Per-Game — but those offensive numbers actually declined when they were playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas scored only 25.1 PPG and averaged 395.5 YPG in their eight home games in the regular season. In the AFC playoffs, the Chiefs only scored 50 combined points — but their defense also held Jacksonville and Cincinnati to only 20 points apiece in those two games. Kansas City’s defense was underrated when playing at home last season as they held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. Granted, the Chiefs will miss the departed Frank Clark which makes the Chris Jones holdout more urgent. But don’t forget that this defense thrived in the second half of the season due to the emergence of rookie defensive backs Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook, and Joshua Williams who all played significant roles in their playoff run. Second-year defensive end George Karlaftis is expected to make a big jump in his pass-rushing skills this season. On offense, tight end Travis Kelce is questionable with his bruised knee that he suffered in practice this week. If he is missing, the Chiefs’ red zone offense may particularly struggle since he is Patrick Mahomes' most reliable target. Don’t be surprised if head coach Andy Reid’s game plan is to rely on the running game behind Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire — and that will burn time off the clock. Even if Kelce does play, Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total -- and Kelce was healthy for all those games. Detroit has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog of less than seven points. Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his at home all season including high-profile shootout losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in September to Philadelphia. At home, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. The Lions’ defense ranked last in total defense last year by allowing 392.4 Yards-Per-Game. With the additions of free agent cornerbacks Cameron Sutton from Denver and C.J. Gardner-Johnson from Philadelphia along with rookie draft picks Brian Branch from Alabama and Jack Campbell from Iowa, the talent level is improved on that side of the ball.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 — and Detroit has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) returns to action as the reigning Super Bowl champions after their 38-35 victory against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Detroit (0-0) comes off a 9-8 campaign last year where they missed the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Lions were a reliable underdog against the spread last year. But now the hype train for the Detroit Lions has not been this loud in decades — and while they should contend for the NFC North title, I do not think the available evidence matches the raised expectations for this franchise that has not won a playoff game since 1991. I’m simply not impressed with their final Sunday night victory in Lambeau Field against Green Bay that thwarted the Packers' playoff aspirations despite their playoff hopes being eliminated earlier in the day. I think it is one of the easiest things to do in competitive events to find motivation to screw your rivals — especially when absolved from the pressure of failing to meet expectations. Good for the Lions that day! But the seeds of their downfall may have been exposed even in that game (more on that in my Final Take). And how impressive was that victory against the Packers, exactly? If the Aaron Rodgers Truthers who now drive the NY Jets Hype Train and the Rodgers Haters have one thing in common, it is this: that Green Bay team last season was a mess. Either Rodgers' bad season was a result of his playing with a broken hand or the product of Father Time’s impact on his skill set — but he was bad. There also is a narrative that the Lions' defense improved in the second half of the season. First of all, Detroit’s defense was playing at a historically bad rate through October when each of their opponents scored at least 24 points — so better numbers in the second half may have simply been the law of averages kicking in (especially when four games against Chicago and the broken Packers appear on the docket). Secondly, the most important game of the Lions' entire season was in Week 15 when they played at Carolina with control of their playoff fate on the line with a 7-7 record. In that game against the Sam Darnold-led Panthers under interim head coach Steve Wilks, Detroit lost by a 37-23 score with the “improved” Lions defense surrendering 570 total yards. Darnold looked like he was back at USC throwing against the RichRod Arizona defense while the Panthers rushed for 320 yards (not a typo). Detroit finished the season last in the NFL in yardage allowed — ranking 29th in run defense and 30th in pass defense. They did upgrade that unit in the offseason — but free-agent cornerback Emmanuel Moseley is out tonight with a knee injury. The hope is that the run defense will improve because of their rookie class — but I’m not sure those rookies suddenly make this group even middle of the road. Perhaps the dynamic Detroit offense will keep them competitive tonight? Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his at home all season including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. With tight end T.J. Hockensen traded to Minnesota and replaced by a rookie and second-year wideout Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games, who is Goff’s (reliable) second option in the passing game? The Lions remain a team that got outgained in yardage last season. Regarding Kansas City, I am assuming that tight end Travis Kelce will not play (although even better if he does — I give it a one out of three chance that he can go despite his bruised knee). The triumph of this Chiefs team last season was predicated on Patrick Mahomes' development as a quarterback in taking what the defense gave him in his first season playing without Tyreke Hill. The mission this offseason has been to nurture the development of wide receivers Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice into the passing attack to better complement Kelce. Even if Kelce does not play, head coach Andy Reid will scheme players open against the Lions defense Darnold picked apart last December — and Mahomes has more than demonstrated the discipline to simply find open receivers. And don’t be surprised if Reid’s game plan is to simply run over this porous Lions defensive line that the Panthers mauled with Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. On defense, the Chiefs will miss the departed Frank Clark which makes the Chris Jones holdout more urgent. But don’t forget that this defense thrived in the second half of the season due to the emergence of rookie defensive backs Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook, and Joshua Williams who all played significant roles in their playoff run. Second-year defensive end George Karlaftis is expected to make a big jump in his pass-rushing skills this season. Kansas City’s defense was underrated when playing at home last season as they held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, Mahomes has won all five of his home openers in his career with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions in those games.

FINAL TAKE: Lions head coach Dan Campbell has been notoriously aggressive with his play-calling in his first two seasons. Detroit leads the NFL in fourth down attempts during his tenure — and they have successfully converted seven of their eight fake punts in his tenure. They had the luxury of being aggressive in that Sunday night game against the Packers with nothing on the line for them except the joy of playing the role of the spoiler. Now expectations have arrived for this team — and Campbell — and that aggressiveness can quickly become reckless (ask LA Chargers fans with Brandon Staley). I recall an ill-advised fourth down attempt inside the Lions’ 30-yard line in his rookie season in the salad days when he was trying to avoid a winless season. A mistake like that at Arrowhead Stadium against Mahomes would be Game (and point spread cover) Over. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month is with the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 12th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (101) plus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-3) won their seventh straight game — and 12th in their last 13 contests — with their 23-20 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite on January 29th. Philadelphia (16-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 31-7 victory against San Francisco as a 2.5-point favorite earlier on that Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINT(S): I think Philadelphia is a good but not great team. I just cannot overcome their soft schedule and the fortunate turn of events they have enjoyed all season. The fact that their victory over the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game represents the best win on their resume — despite San Francisco lacking a player who could throw a credible forward pass in the second half of that game. Or was their mid-October victory against Dallas with Cooper Rush under center for the injured Dak Prescott? Trevor Lawrence was probably the best quarterback they beat all year — but that was on the first Sunday in October before the second-year pro blossomed in the second half of the season. Or was the best QB they beat Aaron Rodgers and a Packers’ team that lost at home to Detroit the final Sunday night of the regular season to fail to make the playoffs? It was not Daniel Jones who they beat in the opening round of the playoffs. Philly beat the Giants three times and they beat Minnesota — and that exhausts the list of their six wins against teams who made the playoffs. I know the Eagles have a great offensive line — so do the Lions. I know there are some sweet run blocks against the Niners' good defensive line from the NFC Championship Game — but I am not going to get too excited about those plays considering the fading morale of that 49ers team. By the way, Philly only averaged 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry against San Francisco. And despite their improved run defense after acquiring Ndamukong Sun and Linvale Joseph in mid-November, they still ranked 15th against the run in the second half of the season according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. I simply think the Eagles are a year away from learning how to beat great teams. I like Jalen Hurts — but I don’t love him yet to outduel elite quarterbacks in the fourth quarter. I don’t think head coach Nick Sirianni is ready to outwit Hall of Fame coaches on the other side of the field. In some ways, getting gifted the fortunate luck of Brock Purdy’s elbow injury early in that game may have given this team a false sense of confidence. True confidence would come from beating an outstanding team in the fourth quarter. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they scored 69 points in their two playoff games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. This is Philly’s first road game since December 24th. The Eagles have played four straight Unders in a row while outgaining their two playoff opponents by at least +105 net yards. But Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after outgaining their last two opponents by +100 or more yards. Kansas City is playing in its third Super Bowl in the last four seasons. They have the best quarterback in the league Patrick Mahomes. They have a Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare for this game — and his teams have covered the point spread in 20 of their 33 games in his career when he has two more weeks to prepare. I worried about Mahomes’ right ankle against the Bengals — but still concluded to back the Chiefs in that game. With two weeks to rest and continue the healing, Mahomes should be in even better shape than was against the excellent Cincinnati defense. He completed 29 of 43 passes for 326 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the AFC Championship Game despite the injury and then the loss of three wide receivers that made a significant impact on their ability to pass the ball. Reid does not expect Mecole Hardman to be able to play in the Super Bowl — but both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are expected to be able to play despite missing practice time in preparation for the game. This is a battle-tested team that won their two playoff games by ten combined points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games at home by seven points or less. Mahomes has passed the test he faced this season if he could still maintain his productivity without Tyreek Hill. He has improved in taking what the defense gives him in the passing game. The Chiefs also have a running back in rookie Isaih Pacheco who can burn defenses that do not put enough players in the box. Since Week 10, Pacheco’s 728 rushing yards (before the AFC Championship Game) were the third most in the NFL. And the Kansas City defense is better than their season-long statistics suggest as this group continues to improve, as usual, under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Led by Chris Jones, the Chiefs sacked Joe Burrow five times. They have held their last three opponents to just 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 312.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Chiefs are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (101) plus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 12th, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-3) won their seventh straight game — and 12th in their last 13 contests — with their 23-20 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite on January 29th. Philadelphia (16-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 31-7 victory against San Francisco as a 2.5-point favorite earlier on that Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs scored only 23 points against the Bengals — but the game script led that to be a lower-scoring game with Kansas City exposing a battered Cincinnati offensive line. Joe Burrow was sacked five times in that game — and the Bengals ran for just 71 yards on 17 carries on that game. The Chiefs held Cincinnati to just 309 total yards — but they will face a much stiffer challenge against this Eagles team that probably has the best offensive line in the NFL. The Kansas City offense went into that game with Patrick Mahomes limited with his mobility given the right ankle injury he suffered the previous week against Jacksonville. To then compound matters, the Chiefs lost three wide receivers to in-game injuries that made a significant impact on their ability to pass the ball. Frankly, I completely believe that the AFC Championship Game goes Over the Total if even one of those receivers was still available to complement Travis Kelce and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the passing game in the fourth quarter of that game. Not only does KC probably score another three to seven points, but the Bengals then are pressured to play catch-up — and the game script changes. The Chiefs should at least get to their 28.7 Points-Per-Game scoring average against the Eagles — and they scored 32.8 PPG while generating 430.2 Yards-Per-Game in their nine games away from home. Kansas City has played three straight Unders — but they have then played 21 of their last 29 games on the road Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning seven or more games in a row. I worried about Mahomes’ right ankle against the Bengals — but still concluded to back the Chiefs in that game. With two weeks to rest and continue the healing, Mahomes should be in even better shape than was against the excellent Cincinnati defense. He completed 29 of 43 passes for 326 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the AFC Championship Game despite the injury and then the loss of those three wideouts. Reid does not expect Mecole Hardman to be able to play in the Super Bowl — but both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are expected to be able to play despite missing practice time in preparation for the game. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 6 straight Overs after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been effective in his two playoff games since returning from his shoulder injury — and now he gets another two weeks to rest and recuperate for this contest. He will have the green light to run the ball now with everything at stake in this final game of the season. Philadelphia scores 28.7 PPG — and in their eight games away from home, that mark rises to 29.4 PPG and 398.3 total YPG. The Eagles’ elite offensive line should be able to create running lanes to jettison the Philly ground game — they lead the NFL with their rushing attack using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chiefs allow 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents to generate 5.1 YPC but teams too often abandon their running game because they are trailing Mahomes and this high-powered KC offense. The Eagles will not abandon their running game so hastily — and they should continue to move the football. And while Philadelphia has not allowed more than 16 points in three straight games, that speaks more to getting to play the New York Giants twice in a row (once with a backup quarterback) before getting the Niners last week who lacked a quarterback who could reliably throw a forward pass in the second half of that game. Philadelphia has allowed 32 or more points four times this season — and the best quarterback they have played against this season was either Jared Goff in Week One, Trevor Lawrence in early October (before his big step in growth after Thanksgiving) or the smirking Aaron Rodgers in November. OK, I neglected to consider Dak Prescott in that NFC East rematch in December — and Dallas scored 40 points in that game. Choose your fighter … none are Mahomes. This is a new challenge. The Eagles have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when not allowing more than 17 points in two or more games in a row.


FINAL TAKE: After two lower-scoring games in the last two Super Bowls, I am expecting this contest to see a combined score of at least 50 points. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (323) and the Kansas City Chiefs (324). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (14-4) has won ten straight games after a 27-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (15-3) has won six straight games after their 27-20 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Cashing Unders with the Bengals and their defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has been like going to the ATM — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset victory by 10 or more points. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. And in their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points, Cincinnati has played 5 of these games Over the Total. Joe Burrow should continue to find success against the Chiefs’ secondary with three rookies getting significant time. Kansas City has surrounded the most passing touchdowns this season — and they are 7th in the NFL with 79 missed tackles from their defensive backs. Additionally, their defensive backs have been called for 14 defensive pass interference penalties which are the most in the league. The oddsmakers expect a close game — and Burrow has been very effective in the second half against the Chiefs in his career. Burrow has led Cincy to 47 points in the second half and overtime in his three games against KC — and the Bengals have averaged 29.3 Points-Per-Game in those three contests. The major uncertainty for this game regards how effective Patrick Mahomes will be on his gimpy ankle. Even if he is impaired, I still think Kansas City finds a way to get it done tonight. Mahomes still completed 23 of 30 passes for 195 yards with two touchdown passes last week despite the injury. And in 2019 with an ankle that head coach Andy Reid described as worse than what he is dealing with now, Mahomes threw for 443 yards with four touchdown passes. Because Mahomes is so unconventional in how he can deliver the football, he has ways to bypass the pain he may have in his right plant foot. The doctors will have it heavily taped up. Furthermore, after losing the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay two years ago when he was dealing with an ankle then, Mahomes has spent the last two years in training, nutrition, and practice preparing for addressing a moment like this. This game is the culmination of the team’s need to evolve in the post-Tyreek Hill world. Mahomes perhaps became too reliant on the dopamine hit that would come from going for the big play with Hill (or Travis Kelce) — and Anarumo has taken advantage of that. But Mahomes has continued to improve — and he did a great job of simply taking what the defense gave him. The ankle will probably limit his mobility — but Mahomes has demonstrated he can thrive in “only” being a pocket passer this season. From the pocket this year, Mahomes has completed 391 of 552 passes for 4598 yards with 34 touchdown passes, only nine interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 109.6. Anarumo’s adjustment in the December meeting between these teams was to do everything he could to take away Kelce from the offense — he caught only four balls for 56 yards in that game. But Mahomes has gotten more comfortable leaning on J.J. Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and running back Jerick McKinnon in the passing game — and this showdown may have been what Reid had in mind where they traded for Kadarius Toney who may be the ace in the hole tonight. And don’t be surprised if Reid dials up more running plays -- especially if Anarumo drops back eight in pass coverage again as he did in the second half in the AFC Championship Game last year. Since Week 10, rookie running back Isaih Pacheco has rushed for 728 yards, the third most in the NFL during that span. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning six or more games in a row. And while they had a +2 net turnover margin last week, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after sporting a +2 or higher net turnover margin in their last contest. Furthermore, the Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. And in their last 12 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Kansas City has played 8 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These teams have played three times in the last 13 months — two of the games had 51 combined points scored and their Week 17 meeting last season saw 65 combined points scored. Cincinnati won all three of those games with the most recent contest being on December 4th in a 27-24 victory (the same score as the Bengals' upset win in the AFC Championship Game last year) — and the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (323) and the Kansas City Chiefs (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (324) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (323). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-3) has won six straight games after their 27-20 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (14-4) has won ten straight games after a 27-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINT(S): The major uncertainty for this game regards how effective Patrick Mahomes will be on his gimpy ankle. Even if he is impaired, I still think Kansas City finds a way to get it done tonight. Mahomes still completed 23 of 30 passes for 195 yards with two touchdown passes last week despite the injury. And in 2019 with an ankle that head coach Andy Reid described as worse than what he is dealing with now, Mahomes threw for 443 yards with four touchdown passes. Because Mahomes is so unconventional in how he can deliver the football, he has ways to bypass the pain he may have in his right plant foot. The doctors will have it heavily taped up. Furthermore, after losing the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay two years ago when he was dealing with an ankle then, Mahomes has spent the last two years in training, nutrition, and practice preparing for addressing a moment like this. So has Andy Reid — and my investment in the Chiefs tonight is ultimately my endorsement of him. The loss to the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game last year was the defining moment of Kansas City’s season — and the entire offseason was his preparation for this moment (much more than their earlier meeting on December 4th). The Chiefs have now lost three games in a row to Cincinnati — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games under Reid when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Reid’s teams in his career have also covered the point spread in 36 of their 56 opportunities for revenge. This game is the culmination of the team’s need to evolve in the post-Tyreek Hill world. Mahomes perhaps became too reliant on the dopamine hit that would come from going for the big play with Hill (or Travis Kelce) — and Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has taken advantage of that. But Mahomes has continued to improve — and he did a great job of simply taking what the defense gave him. The ankle will probably limit his mobility — but Mahomes has demonstrated he can thrive in “only” being a pocket passer this season. From the pocket this year, Mahomes has completed 391 of 552 passes for 4598 yards with 34 touchdown passes, only nine interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 109.6. Anarumo’s adjustment in the December meeting between these teams was to do everything he could to take away Kelce from the offense — he caught only four balls for 56 yards in that game. But Mahomes has gotten more comfortable leaning on J.J. Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and running back Jerick McKinnon in the passing game — and this showdown may have been what Reid had in mind where they traded for Kadarius Toney who may be the ace in the hole tonight. And don’t be surprised if Reid dials up more running plays -- especially if Anarumo drops back eight in pass coverage again as he did in the second half in the AFC Championship Game last year. Since Week 10, rookie running back Isaih Pacheco has rushed for 728 yards, the third most in the NFL during that span. Additionally, I think the Mahomes injury puts the onus on his teammates to step up and play championship-level football to pick him up. Defensive tackle Chris Jones has yet to register a sack in his career in the playoffs — and while some of that is due to double teams (which frees up his partner on the line, Frank Clark), he needs to have a big game now. All this “Burrowhead Stadium” talk this week should have the Chiefs very chippy. We should not underestimate the home-field advantage Kansas City will enjoy tonight at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. While Cincinnati has won the last three meetings between these teams in the last 13 months, only one of those games was played in KC. I love Joe Burrow — I totally get it — and I take a back seat to no one in my appreciation for this Bengals defense under Anarumo. However, I do wonder if this team is primed for a letdown after their emotional upset victory in Buffalo last week after feeling disrespected by the NFL for being snubbed from having that game played on a neutral field. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. Furthermore, the Bengals caught a break last week with the snowy conditions that slowed down the Bills' pass rush. Cincinnati still has three starting offensive linemen out today — that narrative has seemed to completely disappeared (and I get that losing Jonah Williams may be addition by subtraction). While the Mahomes injury is significant, the state of Burrow’s offensive line remains a bit factor as well. Finally, it gnaws at me that the Bengals have been outgained by -20.5 net Yards-Per-Game in their ten games on the road. And despite winning their last three games, they have been outgained by -57.3 net YPG in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has won three in a row against the Chiefs since Week 17 of last season — but all three games were decided by a field goal with all three contests being nip-and-tuck. Can the Bengals win yet a fourth coin flip in a row? Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. I go back to Andy Reid: beating Cincinnati was the central question he had to answer in the offseason. I think he gets it done. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (324) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (321) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (322). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-4) won their 12th game in a row with their 19-12 win against Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (15-3) won for the seventh time in their last nine games with a 38-7 victory against the New York Giants as an 8-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: I think this Eagles team is loaded with talent — but I suspect that quarterback Jalen Hurts and head coach Nick Sirianni are a year away from reaching the promised land. The 49ers probably have the best overall roster in the league — with a core group of players that played in the 2021 Super Bowl and then lost in the NFC Championship Game last season. Kyle Shanahan has been in this position many times before as a head coach and as an offensive coordinator — and I do think that gives him an edge. The big caveat for this Niners team is Brock Purdy at quarterback. As someone who handicapped every single one of his starts in college at Iowa State, I have been a Purdy skeptic. Not that I am particularly down on his talent (relative to where he was drafted), but I am just very familiar with how the wheels can fall off for him when he does get into trouble. That said, he is in an ideal situation with the talent at the skill positions — and Shanahan is the prototype head coach to take advantage of his skill set. After re-watching the Cowboys game from last week, I see a quarterback that continues to do everything that Shanahan asks of him — while his numbers last week may not have been outstanding after completing 19 of 29 passes for 214 yards without a touchdown pass, he did not throw an interception or make costly mistakes. His quarterback rating of 108 was the best of all the playoff quarterbacks last week. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three regular-season games. Shanahan uses “21” personnel often with two running backs in the backfield and one tight end (including the now-healthy Elijah Mitchell in the mix with McCaffrey and Juszczyk). This will present a unique challenge to the Eagles' defense that only encountered 25 dropbacks to pass against 21 personnel this season — and they ranked near the bottom of the league using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders defending against 21 personnel. Shanahan will have to use all his tricks to keep up with this Philadelphia offense. On defense, while the Eagles have many really good players, do they have transcendent superstars like Nick Bosa or Arik Armstead on their defensive line? Do they have ballers at linebacker like Fred Warner and the criminally underrated Dre Greenlaw? Haason Reddick is playing the best football in his career for Philly this season — and there is not a real weakness with their group. But the Niners have superstars — and this is a superstar moment. There is a reason why San Francisco has won 12 games in a row despite suffering their second major injury at quarterback during that stretch of games. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing their last opponent to score more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Niners have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. And they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. Philadelphia has proven they are in a higher weight class than the Giants this month — but they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. After not beating a playoff team last season, they took full advantage of their soft schedule this year to seize the top seed in the NFC. But I simply cannot get over the fact that their best resume victory (to put this in March Madness college basketball terms) is either against a Dallas team using Cooper Rush at quarterback or against a Minnesota team that was outscored and outgained in yardage this season. Their non-conference victory against Jacksonville in October was before Trevor Lawrence took his next step in his development. I don’t feel I am discounting Jalen Hurts who I followed extra closely this year as my fantasy quarterback for Destination Humiliation. I just don’t know if he can pass his way to victory against an elite opponent — and I remain unsure how healthy he is with his shoulder injury that usually takes no longer to fully heal.

FINAL TAKE: It will be all hands on deck for both teams in this one — and that probably means players like Deebo Samuel getting more touches on kick-off and punt returns. I expect the 49ers supporting cast to make the plays to help their rookie quarterback manage this game to victory. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against NFC rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games in January — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games in the playoffs. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the NFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in January. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (321) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (321) and the Philadelphia Eagles (322). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-4) won their 12th game in a row with their 19-12 win against Dallas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (15-3) won for the seventh time in their last nine games with a 38-7 victory against the New York Giants as an 8-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I expected a higher-scoring game between the Cowboys and 49ers — but the game script progressed in a way that allowed head coach Kyle Shanahan to lean on his running game and not ask rookie quarterback Brock Purdy to do too much. The Niners ran the ball in 21 of their 31 plays in the second half. Dak Prescott’s two interceptions that ended likely ended Cowboys’ scoring drives played a big role in keeping that score low and not putting pressure on San Francisco to respond with a score of their own. After tying the score at 6-6 late in the second quarter, the 49ers never trailed the rest of the game. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. And while the Niners have won the turnover battle in 11 straight games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after generating a +1 or better turnover margin in two or more games in a row. Brock Purdy continues to do everything that Shanahan asks of him — while his numbers last week may not have been outstanding after completing 19 of 29 passes for 214 yards without a touchdown pass, he did not throw an interception or make costly mistakes. His quarterback rating of 108 was the best of all the playoff quarterbacks last week. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three regular-season games. Shanahan uses “21” personnel often with two running backs in the backfield and one tight end (including the now-healthy Elijah Mitchell in the mix with McCaffrey and Juszczyk). This will present a unique challenge to the Eagles' defense that only encountered 25 dropbacks to pass against 21 personnel this season — and they ranked near the bottom of the league using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders defending against 21 personnel. Shanahan will have to use all his tricks to keep up with this Philadelphia offense. While the Niners were able to frustrate a Dallas offense with the inconsistent Prescott playing poorly, they also were able to focus their defensive energies on wide receiver CeeDee Lamb since the Cowboys lack a credible second receiving threat. The Eagles have two legitimate number-one options in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The 49ers are vulnerable against quality vertical passing attacks. They allowed 15 pass plays of more than 20 bar yards this season, tied for the 3rd most in the NFL. Cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir and Charvarius Ward have both been burned by deep balls this season — Ward, in particular, struggled against Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf who has a similar physical profile to Philly’s Brown. The Eagles also deploy plenty of play-action passes — and the 49ers' defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 96 of 135 passes (71.1%) from play-action for 1077 yards, 7.98 yards-per-attempt, nine touchdowns, and a Passer Rating of 101.4. In the final week of the regular season, Las Vegas’ Jarrett Stidham torched the Niners secondary by completing 23 of 34 passes for 365 yards, three touchdown passes, and a Passer Rating of 108.1. The 49ers allowed eight of their 15 pass plays of 20 or more yards in the air to come from play-action — and four of Stidham’s eight explosive completions against them came from play-action. The Eagles will likely lift much from the Raiders’ offensive game plan earlier this month. Jalen Hurts showed few ill effects from his separated shoulder injury from last month against the Giants — he completed 16 of 24 passes for 154 with two touchdown passes while rushing for 34 yards and another touchdown. After taking a 28-0 halftime lead, there was no reason for Philly to push Hurts in the second half as they coasted to victory. The Eagles have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. They held the Giants to just 227 total yards — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 6 straight Overs at home after winning two games in a row. And while they held the Giants to only 23 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. They stay at home where they are scoring 28.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and the 49ers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on grass. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (321) and the Philadelphia Eagles (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (317) and the San Francisco 49ers (318). THE SITUATION: Dallas (13-5) has won three of their last four games after their 31-14 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Monday. San Francisco (14-4) has won 11 straight games after their 41-23 win against Seattle as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they gained 505 yards against the Seahawks last week, they have then played 4 straight Overs after gaining at least 350 or more yards in their last game. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, head coach Kyle Shanahan now have four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for rookie quarterback Brock Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco has scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three games. Dallas has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 4 straight Overs after a win by 14 or more points. Dak Prescott should enter this game full of confidence after completing 25 of 33 passes for 305 yards with four touchdowns. Dallas did give up 386 yards to the Buccaneers on Monday — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 5 straight games at home Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Over the Total when playing at home at Levi’s Stadium. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (317) and the San Francisco 49ers (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (318) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (317). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-4) has won 11 straight games after their 41-23 win against Seattle as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Dallas (13-5) has won three of their last four games after their 31-14 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys play this game under terrible circumstances. First, they have 2 1/2 fewer days to recover and prepare for this contest when compared to the 49ers who played the early game last Saturday. When facing a physical 49ers team on both sides of the ball, this is a significant problem. Second, this will be Dallas’ fourth straight game on the road — and all that travel tends to finally take its toll. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing on a short week after appearing on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys have been resilient off losses — but they remain inconsistent. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Dak Prescott embodies this inconsistency. While he comes off a fantastic effort on Monday, he still has thrown 15 interceptions this season with 3.8 % of his pass attempts getting picked off. Dallas has also been a much better team at home where they have an 8-1 record this season while scoring 30.0 Points-Per-Game and outscoring their guests by +13.3 net PPG and enjoying a +9 net turnover margin. But in they are just 5-4 away from home while scoring -2.4 fewer PPG and only owning a +2 net turnover margin. Dallas has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. The Cowboys' splits have been even more pronounced when they are playing on grass where they are just 2-4 with an average losing margin of -1.2 PPG and a -16.1 net Yards-Per-Game mark. On the other hand, San Francisco is 11-3 when playing on grass (including on their home field at Levi’s Stadium) with a +12.6 net PPG clip and a +72.8 net YPG mark. They hold their opponents to just 296.6 YPG when playing on grass which results in just 15.1 PPG. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory — and they are 11-2-3 ATS in their last 16 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, head coach Kyle Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for rookie quarterback Brock Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco has scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three games. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points -- and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home when favored. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in January — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (318) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (315) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (316). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-4) has won nine games in a row after their 24-17 win against Baltimore as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Buffalo (14-3) has won eight games in a row after their 34-31 victory against Miami last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win. And while the Bengals gave up only 234 yards against the Ravens last week, they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last contest. The Cincinnati defense gave up 364 yards to Baltimore in that game — but they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, and now Jonah Williams out with injuries — but Joe Burrow has become quite used to playing behind a suspect offensive line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year has been overstated on closer analysis. The improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. Burrow had the Bengals in a position to win the Super Bowl last season behind a bad offensive line — and he should keep his team competitive in Buffalo this afternoon. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games as an underdog getting 7 points or less. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 16 of their 20 games on the road an underdog with Burrow as their starting quarterback. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home after a win against an AFC East rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they held the Dolphins to only 42 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. I am concerned that this Bills team is wrapped up too tight in their pursuit to win the Super Bowl. They are making too many mistakes at this point of the season — and it starts with Josh Allen who has thrown five interceptions and lost a fumble in the last three weeks. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they are 1-3-1 ATS. In their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and Cincinnati is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (315) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (315) and the Buffalo Bills (316). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-4) has won nine games in a row after their 24-17 win against Baltimore as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Buffalo (14-3) has won eight games in a row after their 34-31 victory against Miami last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals only gained 234 total yards last week against the Ravens — their 98-yard fumble recovery returned for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter made the winning difference in that game. Cincinnati lost left tackle Jonah Williams to a knee injury in that game — with La’el Collins and Alex Cappa also dealing with injuries, the Bengals are down three starters on their offensive line which is slowing down this offense. The Bengals only gained 257 total yards the previous week against Baltimore — and they managed only 237 total yards four games ago in their 34-23 win at Tampa Bay. Four of Cincinnati’s last five games have not seen more than 43 combined points scored. While Joe Burrow gets most of the headlines, the Bengals sport an underrated defense that has not allowed more than 18 points in three straight games and five of their last seven contests. The Under is 11-5-1 in Cincinnati’s last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The injuries on the offensive line are impacting the Bengals' rushing attack. After rushing for only 55 yards against the Ravens last week, they have not gained more than 73 rushing yards in four straight games. The Under is 17-6-1 in Cincinnati’s last 24 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for 100 or more yards in three or more games in a row. The Bengals go on the road where the Under is 25-10-3 in their last 38 games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Bengals have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the playoffs. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. And while they have played two straight games where 58 or more combined points were scored, they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where 50 or more combined points were scored. The Bills outgained the Dolphins last week by 192 net yards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by 100 or more yards. And while they held Miami to just 42 rushing yards, Buffalo has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. The Bills only allow 18.6 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 260.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents — and the Under is 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games against fellow AFC rivals. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (315) and the Buffalo Bills (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (304) minus the points versus the New York Giants (303). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (14-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 22-16 victory as a 17-point favorite against the Giants on January 8th. New York (10-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 upset win at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in the Wildcard Playoffs last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The Giants pulled off the upset last week against an overrated Vikings team that outscored and outgained in yardage — but this is a very difficult spot for them now with them playing on the road for a third straight week after being in Philadelphia just two weeks ago. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after playing a game where at least 50 or more combined points were scored. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games to close out the regular season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Quarterback Jalen Hurts returned to action two weeks ago — and it remains very much a question if he has his mobility back to operate the Run-Pass Option attack that was so successful in the regular season. But the Eagles should still torch New York with their passing attack. The Giants rank last in the league in pass defense according to the DVOA metrics. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Eagles beat five of the six playoff teams they played in the regular season — and New York lost to six of the nine playoff teams they faced including their win last week in Minnesota.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia did not play their best football to end the regular season — but they had the luxury of taking their foot off the accelerator by being in control to take the top seed in the NFC with just one victory in their final three games. Injuries played a role — but they are getting healthy again. This is a team looking to take the next step after losing in the playoffs last season — and the Eagles have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the postseason. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). THE SITUATION: New York (10-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 upset win at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog in the Wildcard Playoffs last week. Philadelphia (14-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 22-16 victory as a 17-point favorite against the Giants on January 8th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: New York’s offense was clicking last week behind a confident Daniel Jones who completed 24 of 35 passes for 301 yards with two touchdown passes. Jones also ran for 78 additional yards operating head coach Brian Daboll’s offense that helped Josh Allen become a star. Jones will be fully unleashed in this game with the Giants playing with house money. New York should be able to move the ball with Jones offering an additional threat with his legs. The Eagles allowed 499 rushing yards from quarterbacks with 307 of those yards coming from scrambles — and both of those marks are the second-most in the NFL. Running back Saquon Barkley should be relatively rested for this contest as well after only running the ball nine times last week (for 53 yards with two touchdowns). New York has averaged 163 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and the Eagles are vulnerable against the run despite their late-season free-agent pickups of defensive tackles Ndamukong Sun and Lineal Joseph. Their last five opponents have all rushed for at least 115 yards — and those five teams averaged 130.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game against them. This Daboll offense leads the NFL in Red Zone efficiency according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and they present a balanced attack inside the opponent’s 20-yard line by ranking 1st with the pass and 3rd with the run according to the DVOA numbers. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Giants’ last 5 games after gaining 250 or more passing yards in their last game. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point-spread win. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Quarterback Jalen Hurts returned to action two weeks ago — and it remains very much a question if he has his mobility back to operate the Run-Pass Option attack that was so successful in the regular season. But the Eagles should still torch New York with their passing attack. The Giants rank last in the league in pass defense according to the DVOA metrics. Philadelphia hosts this game where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC East — and the Over is 5-2-1 in the Giants’ last 8 games against teams from the NFC. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (10-8) has won six games in a row after their 31-30 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2-point underdog last Saturday. Kansas City (14-3) concluded their regular season on a five-game winning streak — with 10 wins in their last 11 games — after a 31-13 win at Las Vegas as a 9-point favorite on January 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs held the Raiders to just 279 total yards two weeks ago — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win against an AFC West rival — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning at least two games in a row. They return home to Arrowhead Stadium where they are holding their guests to just 19.4 Points-Per-Game. Surprisingly, Kansas City averages -18.2 fewer Yards-Per-Game at home than their 414.1 total YPG mark — and their 25.1 PPG scoring mark at home is -4.1 YPG below their season average. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Jacksonville has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. And while they went into halftime trailing by a 27-7 score, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their last game. They also endured a -5 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Those turnovers put the Chargers in a position to score in the first half — but the improving Jaguars' defense only gave up a field goal in the second half while holding them to just 320 total yards of offense. Jacksonville has held their last six opponents to just 18.0 PPG — and their last three opponents have averaged only 303.0 YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Jags have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and the Chiefs have played 41 of their last 62 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total including Kansas City’s 27-17 victory on November 13th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against each other when playing at Arrowhead Stadium. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (301) and the Kansas City Chiefs (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (301). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-3) concluded their regular season on a five-game winning streak — with 10 wins in their last 11 games — after a 31-13 win at Las Vegas as a 9-point favorite on January 7th. Jacksonville (10-8) has won six games in a row after their 31-30 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Never in doubt(!) for those of us that had the Jaguars last week. Jacksonville trailed by a 27-0 score in the second quarter before scoring a crucial late touchdown to go into halftime trailing by 20 points. They then got plenty of help from the Chargers coaching staff that did not take advantage of burning time off the clock by running the football — allowing the Jags to methodically rally to take the lead and win this game. Great win for head coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence — but I am worried about the emotional letdown for this team after pulling off this near-miracle comeback. I am also worried about a few other aspects for Jacksonville in this step-up in competition. For starters, only two of the six teams they have played during their current winning streak made the playoffs — the Chargers and Dallas. They benefitted from playing against backup quarterbacks in their victories against the New York Jets and two wins against Tennessee. But remember that they needed a late defensive touchdown to beat Joshua Dobbs and the Titans to clinch their spot in the playoffs two weeks ago despite playing at home in that game. They only scored seven first-half points in that game as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games. Lawrence’s propensity to make mistakes and commit turnovers remains a significant issue as well despite his overcoming those four first-half interceptions last week. He has accounted for 21 turnovers this year from 12 interceptions and another nine fumbles. The Jaguars upset the Chargers despite a -5 net turnover margin — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. And while Lawrence passed for 288 yards last week, Jacksonville is 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 games after gaining 250 or more yards in the air in their last game. Now Lawrence goes on the road where he has led the Jags to victory in just four of his 17 career road starts. The Jaguars were 4-6 on the road this season — and they were outscored by -24.9 net Yards-Per-Game in those contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 road games as an underdog this season. Additionally, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the total set at 49.5 or higher including four of their last five games on the road. Now here comes the Chiefs with head coach Andy Reid’s teams covering the point spread in 20 of his 33 games when coaching with two more weeks of rest and preparation. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road against an AFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. Patrick Mahomes faces a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in the league in pass defense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 playoff games at home at Arrowhead Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City beat Jacksonville at home earlier this season by a 27-17 score on November 13th — but after racing out to a 20-0 lead before letting up and letting the Jags back in that game, they are not likely to take this team lightly. The Jaguars are only 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Kansas City. The Chiefs reach their fifth straight AFC Championship Game with the win — their decisive edge in playoff experience should lead them to a double-digit win. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Round Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (151). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (8-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 30-17 loss at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (12-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 26-6 upset loss at Washington as a 7.5-loss last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers had the NFC South division wrapped up going into last week so we should not read too much into their results last week. They only gained 222 yards last week against the Falcons — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The more telling performance was two weeks ago when Tampa Bay clinched their spot in the playoffs with a 30-24 victory at home against Carolina. Tom Brady demonstrated that he still has a few tricks up his sleeve as he completed 34 of 45 passes for 432 yards in the victory. What was particularly encouraging for Buccaneers’ backers was the emergence of wide receiver Mike Evans who caught 10 passes for 207 yards with three touchdown passes. If the Brady-to-Evans connection continues to be reliable, this deep passing threat should help open up the once-stagnant Tampa Bay offense. Frankly, I suspect that Brady and this Buccaneers offense have been sandbagging some things with the expectation that they would be hosting a first-round playoff game. The offense has been most effective when operating from no-huddle — it was from this formation that Brady was able to engineer comeback victories in games like their win against New Orleans for Monday Night Football the first Monday in December. Don’t be surprised if the Bucs operate out of no-huddle much more tonight (rather than just at crunch time). Getting Ryan Jensen back at center will also help enormously — after speculation all week by practicing with the first unit, he was activated earlier today to be eligible to play tonight. The Bucs also get starting cornerback Carlton Davis back for this game to bolster the depth of the secondary. As Brady commented early last week, this Tampa Bay team is probably the healthiest they have been all season. Dallas hopes they can flip the switch in the postseason after their flat effort last week against the Commanders. But this is a tough situational spot for them having to play away from home for a third straight week. The Cowboys are at their best when they are at home where they were 8-1 this season while scoring 30.0 Points-Per-Game and outscoring their guests by +13.3 net PPG and enjoying a +9 net turnover margin. But in they are just 4-4 away from home while scoring -6.0 fewer PPG and only owning a +1 net turnover margin. Dallas is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys are a team that seems to be preparing themselves for more postseason disappointment. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight playoff games — and Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. Whatever one thinks about this Buccaneers team, the 2021 Super Bowl champs consider themselves winners — and that gives them an edge against this Cowboys team. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 26-6 upset loss at Washington as a 7.5-loss last Sunday. Tampa Bay (8-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 30-17 loss at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers had the NFC South division wrapped up going into last week so we should not read too much into their results last week. The more telling performance was two weeks ago when Tampa Bay clinched their spot in the playoffs with a 30-24 victory at home against Carolina. Tom Brady demonstrated that he still has a few tricks up his sleeve as he completed 34 of 45 passes for 432 yards in the victory. What was particularly encouraging for Buccaneers’ backers was the emergence of wide receiver Mike Evans who caught 10 passes for 207 yards with three touchdown passes. If the Brady-to-Evans connection continues to be reliable, this deep passing threat should help open up the once-stagnant Tampa Bay offense. Frankly, I suspect that Brady and this Buccaneers offense have been sandbagging some things with the expectation that they would be hosting a first-round playoff game. The offense has been most effective when operating from no-huddle — it was from this formation that Brady was able to engineer comeback victories in games like their win against New Orleans for Monday Night Football the first Monday in December. Don’t be surprised if the Bucs operate out of no-huddle much more tonight (rather than just at crunch time). Getting Ryan Jensen back at center will also help enormously — after speculation all week by practicing with the first unit, he was activated earlier today to be eligible to play tonight. Perhaps Jensen will help with the ground game for Tampa Bay's offense that has only averaged 77 rushing Yards-Per-Game this season — but considering that their running backs are last in the league averaging 1.2 yards-after-contact, the problem is not with opening up holes at the line of scrimmage. If the Buccaneers lose tonight, they will go down with the ball in Brady’s hands. He is averaging 44 pass attempts per game — and we should not be surprised if he throws the ball at least 50 times tonight. A pass-heavy play script is a good recipe for the Over — especially when the number is below 50. Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total in January. The Buccaneers have allowed their last three opponents to average 369.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is +44.7 net YPG above their season average. That regressing unit presents a welcome opportunity for a Cowboys team that comes off an embarrassing loss where they only put up 182 total yards despite Dak Prescott playing for most of that game. Frankly, it was one of the worst efforts in his career as he completed just 14 of 37 passes for only 128 yards against the Eagles last week. Dallas has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total on the road after an upset loss by 10 or more points. Prescott missed time earlier in the season due to injury so tonight will be just the third time he has been under center following a game where he was their starting quarterback in a losing effort. The Cowboys scored 40 points in both of those previous contests — and Prescott has completed a combined 49 passes from 61 attempts for an 80.3% completion percentage for 623 passing yards, five touchdown passes, and only one interception. He has added 57 rushing yards in those two games as well. Furthermore, Dallas has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Prescott leads an offense that leads the NFL in Red Zone touchdown rate — they have reached the end zone in 40 of their 54 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Cowboys have played 7 of their 8 games this season Over the Total when the Total was set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over their Total against teams with a losing record — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening week game between these two teams in which Tampa Bay won by a 19-3 score in Dallas. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s teams have played 10 of their 12 games on the road Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Head coach Todd Bowles' teams have played 9 of their 10 games Over the Total when playing at home as an underdog getting up to three points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (149) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (150). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-16 loss on the road against the Bengals as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (12-4) has won eight games in a row after their victory against the Ravens last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore is going to be a tough out for the Bengals being a divisional rival who knows them very well. The Ravens are outstanding in two of the three phases of the game. Their special teams rank 3rd in the NFL using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Head coach John Harbaugh will lean on special teams and his defense which has been outstanding in the second half of the season since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago. Since that trade, Baltimore is holding their opponents to 14.7 Points-Per-Game and 288.8 Yards-Per-Game, ranking 2nd and 3rd in the NFL during that span. Additionally, they lead the league by allowing only 11 touchdowns with Smith on the team while ranking tied for third by allowing only 40 Big Plays — and they are 6th in Sack Percentage per opponent dropback. Anthony Brown was their quarterback last week — he completed only 19 of 44 passes but for 286 yards against the Bengals' defense while leading the Ravens to 386 total yards. Lamar Jackson is not close to ready to return to the field with swelling still in his knee. It looks to be Tyler Huntley back at quarterback tonight — but no matter who is under center, the Ravens will commit to running the ball after sandbagging their rushing attack with only 27 running plays last week, the fewest in 11 games. But the Harbaugh formula success works — his teams have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Additionally, Baltimore is 33-13-5 ATS in their last 51 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road in the postseason. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning a game at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with both La’el Collins and Alex Cappa out with injuries — meaning Joe Burrow will be playing behind backups on the right side of the line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year appears overstated on closer analysis. Instead, the improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. They also struggle to run the football — they are averaging only 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games with a 60 rushing YPG average. Baltimore has proven to be one of the most difficult opponents for Burrow to move the ball in his career. In their previous two games this season, Burrow only completes 63.6% of his passes for 432 yards and a 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with only two touchdown passes. The Ravens play do not blitz Burrow under new defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald — instead, they use eight players in pass coverage while showing exotic looks regarding who and when their four rushers go after Burrow.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Wildcard Round — and the Bengals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the AFC Wildcard Round. The Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two teams — and I expect those trends to continue. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Baltimore Ravens (149) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (149) and the Cincinnati Bengals (150). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-16 loss on the road against the Bengals as an 11-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (12-4) has won eight games in a row after their victory against the Ravens last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have not scored more than 17 points in six straight games after their 11-point loss in Cincinnati on Sunday. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Anthony Brown was their quarterback last week — he completed only 19 of 44 passes but for 286 yards against the Bengals' defense while leading the Ravens to 386 total yards. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and the Under is 36-13-2 in their last 51 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Lamar Jackson is not close to ready to return to the field with swelling still in his knee. It looks to be Tyler Huntley back at quarterback tonight — but no matter who is under center, the Ravens will commit to running the ball after sandbagging their rushing attack with only 27 running plays last week, the fewest in 11 games. Head coach John Harbaugh will lean on his defense which has been outstanding in the second half of the season since acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago. Since that trade, Baltimore is holding their opponents to 14.7 Points-Per-Game and 288.8 Yards-Per-Game, ranking 2nd and 3rd in the NFL during that span. Additionally, they lead the league by allowing only 11 touchdowns with Smith on the team while ranking tied for third by allowing only 40 Big Plays — and they are 6th in Sack Percentage per opponent dropback. The Ravens have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Cincinnati has seen the Under go 11-4-1 in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 37 of their last 55 games Under the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. The Bengals have significant injury issues on their offensive line with both La’el Collins and Alex Cappa out with injuries — meaning Joe Burrow will be playing behind backups on the right side of the line. The narrative that this Bengals unit has improved from last year appears overstated on closer analysis. Instead, the improved sack numbers this season are more likely the result of Burrow’s improved mobility in the pocket two years after his ACL injury. Cincinnati has a Pass Block Win Rate of 50% (even when healthy) which is the third-worst in the NFL. They also struggle to run the football — they are averaging only 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games with a 60 rushing YPG average. They only managed 55 rushing yards last week — and the Under is 17-5-1 in their last 23 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. The Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Baltimore has proven to be one of the most difficult opponents for Burrow to move the ball in his career. In their previous two games this season, Burrow only completes 63.6% of his passes for 432 yards and a 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with only two touchdown passes. The Ravens play do not blitz Burrow under new defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald — instead, they use eight players in pass coverage while showing exotic looks regarding who and when their four rushers go after Burrow. On the other side of the ball, the Cincinnati defense remains underrated. They hold their guests to just 309.4 total YPG when playing at home which translates into 18.0 PPG. The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. The Under is also 21-7-2 in their last 29 games in January — and they have played 4 straight Unders. Cincinnati has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total in January — and they have played 8 straight Unders in the playoffs. The Under is also 12-3-1 in the Bengals’ last 16 games against AFC opponents — and the Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC North opponents. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between Baltimore Ravens (149) and the Cincinnati Bengals (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (147) and the Minnesota Vikings (148). THE SITUATION: New York (9-7-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 22-16 loss at Philadelphia as a 17-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (13-4) has won three of their last four games after their 29-13 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings had played six straight games with at least 49 combined points scored before their victory against the Bears in the final week of the regular season. That streak started after Minnesota only scored a field goal in their flat 40-3 loss at home to Dallas. That game came after their 33-30 barn-burning victory at Buffalo the previous week. The Vikings cannot stop anyone — but the brilliance of wide receiver Justin Jefferson and the veteran competency of quarterback Kirk Cousins usually results in higher-scoring games for this team. Minnesota has played 4 straight Overs after a straight-up win. Cousins completed 17 of 20 passes for 225 yards before making way for Nick Mullens who added another 116 passing yards. The Vikings gained 482 total yards against Chicago last week — and they have played 6 of their alert 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Overs after gaining 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. Additionally, Minnesota has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Vikings’ defense has surrendered 29.6 Points-Per-Game in their last five games even after the Bears only put up 13 points against them. Their defense ranks 28th in the league in weighted DVOA Defense using the metrics at Football Outsiders that privilege the most recent performances. Minnesota returns home where they are scoring 27.0 PPG — but they are allowing their guests to generate 393.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 25.2 PPG. The Vikings have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Minnesota has also played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total including seven of their last eight home games Over the Total as the favorite. And in their last 24 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, the Vikings have played 17 of these games Over the Total. New York had scored 20 points in six straight games before only scoring 16 points last week against the Eagles in a game where head coach Brian Daboll rested many of his key starters including quarterback Daniel Jones. The Giants' defense has allowed six of their last eight opponents to score at least 20 points with the two exceptions being the anemic offenses of Indianapolis and Washington. The Over is 4-1-1 in New York’s last 6 games after a point spread win — and the Giants have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. New York is generating 374.3 YPG in their last three games while ranking 7th in weighted Offensive DVOA using the analytics at Football Outsiders. The Giants also lead the NFL in Red Zone DVOA Offense — and they will be going against a Vikings’ defense that ranks 23rd in the league in Red Zone DVOA Defense so their drives should result in more touchdowns than field goals if those trends hold up. Minnesota allows their opponents to complete 66.1% of their passes — and New York has played 4 straight Overs in the second half of the season against teams who allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 64% of their passes. And while the Vikings score 24.9 PPG, the Giants have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Cousins has led Minnesota to eight game-winning touchdowns this season — but Daniel Jones is responsible for five game-winning drives himself in his breakout season under Daboll’s direction. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and the Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (147) and the Minnesota Vikings (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (143) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (144). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-28 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Sunday. Jacksonville (9-8) has won five games in a row after their 20-16 win against Tennessee as a 6-point favorite last Saturday night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers were flat in their effort last week against the Broncos which meant nothing with Cincinnati taking care of business against Baltimore at the same time last Sunday afternoon — they allowed the hapless Denver offense to generate 471 yards against them. But Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after giving up 350 or more total yards in their last game. The Chargers' defense has played better in the second half of the season — and getting Joey Bosa back to team up with Khalil Mack certainly raises the ceiling regarding how well this unit can play. Los Angeles was second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders from Weeks 13 through 17. They did allow Denver to rush for 205 yards last week — but they have then played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. The Chargers gained 352 yards in that contest — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The loss of wide receiver Mike Williams is devastating for this team after Staley felt the need to play his key starters for an extended length of time last week despite having little at stake in their game against the Broncos. Williams injured his back in that game which will keep him out of this contest. With a healthy Williams, the Chargers scored more than 24 PPG and averaged 372 YPG and 276 passing YPG — but they dropped to scoring about 20 PPG and averaging just 317 total YPG due to getting 40 fewer YPG in the air. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has quarterback Justin Herbert stuck in a short passing game where his average intended air yards per attempt is just 6.7 yards, ranking the third-lowest amongst starting quarterbacks. In games without Williams, Herbert’s average depth of target drops from 6.7 yards to 5.8 yards — making this offensive attack easier to defend. Los Angeles stays on the road this week where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Jacksonville gained only 222 total yards last week against the Titans — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last contest. They only ran for 19 yards against the stout Tennessee run defense in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last contest. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. While Trevor Lawrence is getting most of the attention for this team, their defense has forced 11 turnovers in the last five games. Jacksonville has held their last three opponents to just 272.0 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 7.3 Points-Per-Game they have allowed. The Jaguars return home where they are holding their guests to just 335.3 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. Jacksonville has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and the Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against conference rivals. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (143) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (9-8) has won five games in a row after their 20-16 win against Tennessee as a 6-point favorite last Saturday night. Los Angeles (10-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-28 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville experienced a character-building victory last week by relying on their defense to pull out a “must-have” game against a tenacious Titans team. We had Tennessee last week so it was expected that Mike Vrabel’s team would impose their will on the Jaguars in a low-scoring contest behind a rested Derrick Henry — but Jacksonville forced a late strip-sack on the Titans’ Joshua Dobbs that Josh Allen scooped up and raced into the end zone for the winning score. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games after defeating an AFC South rival in their last game. While Trevor Lawrence is getting most of the attention for this team, their defense has forced 11 turnovers in the last five games. Jacksonville has held their last three opponents to just 272.0 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 7.3 Points-Per-Game they have allowed. The Jaguars are developing a formidable home-field advantage at TIAA Bank Field where they have won five of their seven games this season while holding their guests to just 335.3 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. They were neglected an eighth home game this season with their annual trip to London — but they come into this game on a four-game home winning streak which includes victories against playoff teams Baltimore and Dallas. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. Lawrence does appear to have taken the next step in his development into one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. In his first eight starts this season, Lawrence completed 62.5% of his passes for 1840 yards and a 6.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with 10 touchdown passes, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 84.0. In his last nine starts, the former number one pick in the NFL draft completed 69.7% of his passes for 2273 yards and a 7.4 YPA with 15 touchdowns, only two interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 104.6 that leads the league during that span. He should get plenty of help from running back Travis Etienne who averaged 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry en route to his 1125 rushing yards this season. The Chargers rank 29th in the league in Run Defense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They allow 5.6 YPC on the road which has resulted in home teams generating 156 rushing YPG. James Robinson torched this Chargers' defense for 120 yards in their first meeting on September 25th. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley loves his two-high safety shell looks — and that scheme worked when he was the defensive coordinator with the Rams two years ago. But without Aaron Donald patrolling the middle of the line of scrimmage, his Chargers’ defense has been mauled by opposing rushing attacks in his two seasons as their head coach. While the run defense improved in the second half of the season, Los Angeles has allowed their last two opponents to rush for 371 yards — throwing water on the narrative that getting Joey Bosa back elevated their ability to stop the run. The Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Los Angeles has scored 59 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in two games in a row. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing to a divisional rival by seven points or less. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. It should be noted that the Chargers played a weak schedule down the stretch that included Tennessee (in the game where Ryan Tannehill got injured), Indianapolis, the LA Rams, and then the Broncos — all teams that did not make the playoffs. Additionally, the loss of wide receiver Mike Williams is devastating for this team after Staley felt the need to play his key starters for an extended length of time last week despite having little at stake in their game against the Broncos. Williams injured his back in that game which will keep him out of this contest. The Chargers were 8-5 with a healthy Williams while scoring more than 24 PPG and averaging 372 YPG and 276 passing YPG — but they were 2-2 without him while scoring about 20 PPG and averaging just 317 total YPG due to getting 40 fewer YPG in the air. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has quarterback Justin Herbert stuck in a short passing game where his average intended air yards per attempt is just 6.7 yards, ranking the third-lowest amongst starting quarterbacks. In games without Williams, Herbert’s average depth of target drops from 6.7 yards to 5.8 yards — making this offensive attack easier to defend.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t like the vibes with this Chargers team with Staley leading the way — and that dynamic is only made worse after contradicting the logic of not playing starters in the preseason by asking his starters to play last week. Now Williams is injured, the team is traveling east, and Sean Payton is lurking to take over this group. Los Angeles only beat one of the six teams on their schedule that made the playoffs — and that was the 7th-seed Miami Dolphins. Jacksonville has a 3-3 record against playoff teams— and they are in a much better position with a Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson steering the ship. Los Angeles will have the extra motivation to avenge their 38-10 loss at home to the Jaguars on September 25th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss by 21 or more points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.