At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (121) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (122). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (5-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 24-10 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 1-point favorite. Tennessee (6-2) ended a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 24-17 win against Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Indianapolis outgained the Ravens last week by +79 net yards after holding them to just 260 total yards. Baltimore scored on a defensive touchdown from a 65-yard fumble recovery that helped to make the winning difference. Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Colts are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Indy is scoring a healthy 26.0 PPG this season — and that mark has risen to a 27.3 PPG clip in their last three games with them averaging 378.3 total YPG during that span. Quarterback Philip Rivers is completing 67.9% of his passes with 2087 passing yards and a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average. And while tight end Jack Doyle is out for this game as he recovers from a concussion, Rivers will get wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, back from the groin injury that has kept him out the last few weeks. The Colts’ offensive line leads the league by allowing only eight sacks this season — and the pass rush is a weakness for the Titans. Rivers should have plenty of time to pick apart the Tennessee secondary. Indianapolis also leads the NFL by allowing only 290.0 total YPG. They go back on the road where they are outgaining their opponents by +46.7 net YPG. The Colts are also 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games in November. Tennessee defeated the Bears last week despite getting outgained by -147 net yards. The Titans managed only 228 total yards against Chicago — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Despite winning six of their eight games, Tennessee is getting outgained by -10.2 net YPG. The Titans have eked out five of the six games they have played that have been decided by one scoring possession. Tennessee surrendered 319 passing yards to Nick Foles last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while the Titans rank 7th in the league by scoring 29.0 PPG this year, they are scoring only 22.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 320.3 total YPG which is -63.6 net YPG below their season mark. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow AFC opponents. Furthermore, the Titans will be missing a couple of important players with both wide receiver Adam Humphries and cornerback Adoree’ Jackson out with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their meetings last season with the road team winning both times. The Colts have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 meetings with the Titans including covering the point spread in six of their last eight trips to Nashville to play Tennessee in their building. Indianapolis is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 Thursday Night Football games — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on Thursday nights. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (121) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: New England (2-5) has lost four straight games after their 24-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday. New York (0-8) lost their eighth straight game last week with their 35-9 loss at Kansas City as a 20-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss by 3 points or less to an AFC East rival. New England stays on the road this week where they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have played 15 of their last 21 road games Under the Total as a favorite. Additionally, the Patriots have played 5 straight games Under the Total in November — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Furthermore, the Jets have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points, New York has played 4 of these games Under the Total. The Jets are scoring only 11.8 PPG this season while averaging just 258.9 total YPG. With Sam Darnold doubtful with a shoulder injury, it will be Joe Flacco under center tonight. He is completing only 51.9% of his passes this season. New York returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as a home underdog. And while they will be without defensive end Quinnen Williams with his hamstring injury for this game, the Jets have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing in the Meadowlands. 10* NFL New England-NY Jets ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (475) and THE SITUATION: New York (0-8) lost their eighth straight game last week with their 35-9 loss at Kansas City as a 20-point underdog. New England (2-5) has lost four straight games after their 24-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: This New England roster is a far cry from previous Bill Belichick teams — yet his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. This team lacks all semblances of a passing attack with Julian Edelman now on Injured Reserve and last year’s draft bust, N’Keal Harry, out with a concussion. Belichick listed 17 players as questionable for this game — and even given his aggressive use of the injury list, this is a ton of players for what was already a depleted roster. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 6 points or less. New England is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Patriots are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last thirteen games when playing on field turf. New York is an ugly team to play right now with them being a legitimate threat to go winless this season. Yet they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after losing at least five games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing at least six games in a row. And while they have only covered the point spread once this season, the Jets have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Defense has certainly been a problem for this team — they allowed Kansas City to average 7.4 Yards-Per-Play en route to gaining 496 yards last week. But New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Jets have not scored more than 10 points in four straight games — yet they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not scoring more than 17 points in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: New England is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. Hold your nose if you need to (I will!) — but the Jets’ is the “right” side tonight. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (476) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (473) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-2) comes off a 26-23 win at Chicago in overtime last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (6-2) enters this game coming off a 25-23 win at New York against the Giants as a 13-point favorite for Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Weather is going to play a role in this one with winds expected to be around 20 miles-per-hour. Winds at that speed impact the intermediate and deeper passing games — and Drew Brees and Tom Brady are not the strongest arms in the league at the point in their careers. Both defenses can adjust accordingly with the deep threats not quite as credible in these conditions. The Saints have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after victory as a favorite where they did not cover the point spread. New Orleans has also played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a win by 3 points or less on the road. Additionally, the Saints have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning at least four games in a row. And while New Orleans has averaged 405.7 Yards-Per-Game over their last three games, they have then played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averring at least 400 YPG in their last three games. The New Orleans defense is underrated — while they allow 28.1 PPG, that is accompanied with them surrendering just 328.3 total YPG. In their last three games, the Saints are allowing only 320.7 total YPG. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Buccaneers defense may be the best in the NFL — they are allowing just 20.6 PPG while not allowing more than 23 points in six of their eight games. They limit their opponents to only 299.5 total YPG due to their outstanding run defense that leads the league by holding their opponents to just 70.4 rushing YPG. New Orleans wants to run the ball to set up Brees with their play-action passing game. They are averaging 119.3 rushing YPG while topping the 90-yard plateau in six of their seven games. Tampa Bay defensive coordinator completely stymied Aaron Rodgers a few weeks ago by holding the Packers to just 10 points. Rodgers completed only 16 of 35 passes for 107 yards. The Buccaneers also lead the league with only three missed tackles all season — so don’t expect Alvin Kamara to break free for big gains. Tampa Bay returns home for this game where they have played 15 of their last 20 home games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing at Tampa Bay. While many bettors are expecting a higher scoring game in the rematch of the 34-23 Saints victory in the opening week of the season, expect fewer points this time around. Both these teams like to burn time off the clock with long drives — and neither team’s offenses are very explosive even without 20 MPH winds. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (473) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-2) enters this game coming off a 25-23 win at New York against the Giants as a 13-point favorite for Monday Night Football. New Orleans (5-2) comes off a 26-23 win at Chicago in overtime last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay was flat on Monday as a double-digit favorite as they were perhaps looking ahead to this NFC South showdown. The Buccaneers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on a short week on Sunday after featuring on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay allowed 367 yards to the Giants in the win — but they are 20-9-3 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bucs have one of the best defenses in the league as they are allowing only 20.6 PPG along with just 299.5 total YPG. Tampa Bay also boasts the best-run defense in the league as they hold their opponents to just 70.4 rushing YPG. They have held three opponents to under 50 rushing yards this season. This stout defense is a great combination with the Tom Brady-led offense. What is underrated about Brady is that his offenses limit turnovers. He threw two interceptions in the opening game loss in the Big Easy against the Saints — but he has thrown only two interceptions in his last six games. Furthermore, New Orleans has committed just five turnovers in their last seven games — and they have won the turnover battle in six of their last seven games. Brady is getting comfortable in the Bruce Arians offense. He is averaging 2 touchdown passes per game over his last three starts — and he is completing over 70% of his passes in his last two starts. Since Week Three, Brady has 17 touchdown passes to just one interception. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a win on the road by 3 points or less. Their victory over the Bears came off a 27-24 win against Carolina — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning their last two games by a field goal or less. And while some bettors may consider the Saints “due” because they have not covered the point spread in their last three games, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last two games where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Saints defense is an issue as they are allowing 28.1 PPG this season. They are just 16th in the league by allowing 237.9 passing YPG — and they ave allowed two touchdowns of more than 60 yards. Their win over the Bears flew Over the 41 point Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams met in Brady’s first game in a Tampa Bay uniform with the Saints winning by a 34-23 score. Brady completed only 23 of 36 passes for what is now his third-lowest completion percentage with the Buccaneers. But New Orleans managed only 82 rushing yards in that game which is their lowest output of the season. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is questionable to return to the field today after missing much of the season. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games when playing with revenge against a team that scored at least 28 points against them. 25* NFC South Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (468) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (467). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-5) looks to bounce back from a 31-30 loss at Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (4-3) has won two of their last three games after their 16-6 upset win at Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): That was the fifth game this season that Los Angeles has lost a game decided by seven points or less. All five of the Chargers’ losses have been decided by a combined 19 points. Despite winning only two of their seven games, head coach Anthony Lynn’s team is outgaining their opponents by +51.1 net YPG. They should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss in their last game. Additionally, the Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Chargers’ offense is beginning to click under rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. They are scoring 32.0 PPG while averaging 439.7 total YPG with Herbert getting his top two weapons in the passing game, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, healthy and on the field together at the same time. Los Angeles has scored at least 27 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. The Chargers are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two of their last three contests. The Raiders held the Browns to just 223 yards last week in the weather that limited the passing attacks for both teams. But Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. Despair their winning record, the Raiders are only outgaining their opponents by +1.7 net YPG — and they are getting outscored by -2.3 PPG. They stay on the road for a second straight week where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games when favored. And in their last 8 games played on field turf, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have had this game circled on their calendars all year after getting swept by the Raiders last year. Los Angeles lost the first meeting in Oakland by a 26-24 score before getting upset in the rematch in LA by a 24-17 score as a 7-point favorite on December 22nd. This is expected to be a high-scoring game with the Total set in the low 50s — but the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher and the Chargers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (468) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (453) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (454). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-4) has won three of their last four games after their 31-30 upset win at Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog. Atlanta (2-6) has won two of their last three games with their 25-17 win at Carolina as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons are not a reliable favorite laying more than 4 points. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games when laying up to a touchdown. They do come off an upset win where they averaged 6.08 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. The Falcons also allowed the Panthers to average 6.20 YPP — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight home games after allowing their last opponent to average at lest 6.0 YPP. Defense is the Achilles’ heel for this team as they are allowing their opponents to score 28.0 PPG while averaging 410.6 total YPG. Atlanta returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Denver generated 351 yards in their win over the Chargers despite only having the football for 24:07 minutes in that game. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while Denver has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. The Broncos have a stout defense that is third in the NFL in Red Zone Defense. Over their last three games, they have held their opponents to just 22.0 PPG along with only 339.7 total YPG. This defense makes them dangerous underdogs as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Denver has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November — and the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but take the points) Underdog Special with the Denver Broncos (453) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (302) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (301). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (4-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 37-27 loss at Seattle as a 1-point underdog. Green Bay (5-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-22 upset loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: This game opened as a pick ‘em before more injury news and a COVID outbreak in San Francisco has moved the Packers to around a touchdown road favorite. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and tight end George Kittle are out indefinitely. Running back Tevin Coleman has been downgraded to out with a knee. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Deebo Samuel are on the COVID list. Nick Mullens will run the offense — and this will be a run-heavy game-plan against the suspect Packers run defense that is allowing their opponents to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. San Francisco swept the two meetings between these two teams last year — including in the NFC Championship Game where they won by a 37-20 score. The formula for success was running the football and dominating the physical battle — and head coach Kyle Shanahan will certainly keep this same approach for this rematch. Mullens has been fine under center — he is completing 70.4% of his passes this season with an 8.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He completed 18 of 25 passes for 238 yards in relief last week in Seattle. The Niners gained 351 yards in that game — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. San Francisco has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a divisional rival. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Despite a host of injuries on defense headlined by the losses of Nick Bose, Richard Sherman, and Dee Ford, the Niners are still only allowing 21.6 PPG along with 314.6 total YPG — and those numbers have dropped to 19.7 PPG and 300.7 YPG over their last three games. San Francisco has an outstanding defensive coordinator in Robert Saleh who will have certainly studied closely the Bowles’ game plan from three weeks ago. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Green Bay has covered the point spread in expectations in five of their seven games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Packers’ offense has slowed down significantly since playing Tampa Bay three weeks ago when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles designed a game plan of complicated stunts and disguised schemes that stymied Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is scoring only 22.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 326.7 total YPG in this copycat league. The Packers will not be at full strength with running backs A.J. Dillon and Jamal Williams on the COVID list. Running back Aaron Jones is also questionable with a calf injury — so he is a game-time decision. If Jones cannot play, the available running backs to the Packers’ offense is Tyler Ervin (who is mostly a pass-catching back) and Dexter Williams who would be activated off the practice squad. Now Green Bay stays on the road for a second-straight week — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing at San Francisco after getting swept last year by a combined 74-28 score. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (302) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (5-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-22 upset loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (4-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 37-27 loss at Seattle as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Green Bay generated 400 yards against the Vikings in that loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Despite that haul of yardage, the Packers’ offense has slowed down significantly since playing Tampa Bay three weeks ago when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles designed a game plan of complicated stunts and disguised schemes that stymied Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is scoring only 22.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 326.7 total YPG in this copycat league. The Packers also allowed Minnesota to generate only 324 yards but a 6.75 Yards-Per-Play rate — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP.  Their loss last week came on the heels of their 35-20 victory over Houston two weeks ago — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 50 points were scored. Green Bay stays on the road this week where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite. Additionally, the Packers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Green Bay will not be at full strength with running backs A.J. Dillon and Jamal Williams on the COVID list. Running back Aaron Jones is also questionable with a calf injury — so he is a game-time decision. If Jones cannot play, the available running backs to the Packers’ offense is Tyler Ervin (who is mostly a pass-catching back) and Dexter Williams who would be activated off the practice squad. Those absences are minor compared to the M*A*S*H unit that is San Francisco. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and tight end George Kittle are out indefinitely. Running back Tevin Coleman has been downgraded to out with a knee. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams, and wide receiver Deebo Samuel are on the COVID list. Nick Mullens will run the offense — and this will be a run-heavy game-plan against the suspect Packers run defense that is allowing their opponents to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. San Francisco swept the two meetings between these two teams last year — including in the NFC Championship Game where they won by a 37-20 score. The formula for success was running the football and dominating the physical battle — and head coach Kyle Shanahan will certainly keep this same approach for this rematch. This commitment to running the football will burn time off the clock while likely reducing the number of offensive possessions for both teams — and Shanahan is disciplined to not abandon the run if his team falls behind. San Francisco has averaged 402.7 YPG over their last three games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG over their last three games. The Niners return home where they have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Despite a host of injuries on defense headlined by the losses of Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, and Dee Ford, the Niners are still only allowing 21.6 PPG along with 314.6 total YPG — and those numbers have dropped to 19.7 PPG and 300.7 YPG over their last three games. San Francisco has an outstanding defensive coordinator in Robert Saleh who will have certainly studied closely the Bowles’ game plan from three weeks ago.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing on Thursday Night Football. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273) and the New York Giants (274). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (5-2) has won two straight as well as five of their last six games after their 45-20 victory in Las Vegas last Sunday against the Raiders as a 3.5-point favorite. New York (1-6) looks to rebound from their 22-21 loss at Philadelphia two Thursdays ago as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing a game away from home where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Bucs generated 454 yards against the Raiders’ defense last week — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay has scored 83 combined points in their last two games. They have played 21 of 29 games Over the Total when playing on the road — and they have 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. New York has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Giants have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. New York has played their last two games Under the Total — and not only have they then played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game but they have also played 4 straight Overs after playing their last two games Under the Total. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total against NFC foes — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. The Bucs should be winning this game with the Giants in catch-up mode — and that tempo should push the final score to finish above the number. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-NY Giants ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273) and the New York Giants (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). THE SITUATION: New York (1-6) looks to rebound from their 22-21 loss at Philadelphia two Thursdays ago as a 5-point underdog. Tampa Bay (5-2) has won two straight as well as five of their last six games after their 45-20 victory in Las Vegas last Sunday against the Raiders as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. The extra time to rest and prepare should help rookie head coach Joe Judge in this spot. As it is, the Giants have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing their last game on a Thursday night. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing three of their last four contests. The Giants allowed 442 yards to the Eagles while enduring a -2 net turnover margin. But New York has then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The team had a COVID scare last week but the only player that will miss this game will be offensive lineman Will Hernandez. Tampa Bay is just 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tom Brady completed 33 of 45 passes for 369 yards to lead the Bucs to victory — but they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Tampa Bay allowed the Raiders to generate 271 passing yards as well — and they are just 19-41-1 ATS in their last 61 games after a game where they allowed at least 250 passing yards. The Bucs are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November. They stay on the road this week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. New York is getting too many points to pass up. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (271) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (272). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-5) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 25-3 upset loss at Washington last week. Philadelphia (2-4-1) looks to build off their 22-21 win over the New York Giants last week as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Hold your nose if you must — but the Eagles are simply laying too many points to a divisional rival who have been humiliated in their last two games. They will be turning to rookie Ben Dinucci under center with Andy Dalton on the shelf after suffering a concussion last week. Frankly, the 7th round pick from James Madison cannot do much worse than Dalton has for this team. He passed for over 3400 yards in his senior season taking the Dukes to the national championship game. He adds desperately needed mobility to the position that Dalton lacks — he rushed for 569 yards with seven touchdowns last season for James Madison. I expect offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to get creative with Dinucci with some designed run plays. I also expect more creativity from Moore in getting the ball in the hands of the uber-talented Dallas wide receiving corps. And I expect more from running back Ezekiel Elliott after the Cowboys managed only 83 rushing yards last week against the Football Team. As it is, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a double-digit loss on the road. And while they surrendered 208 rushing yards last week to the Football Team, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 road games after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in their last game. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record on the road. Philadelphia is just 1-2 at home this year — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles remain a banged-up football team with three starters injured on their offensive line and several other starters out on both sides of the football including runny back Miles Sanders. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games when favored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against NFC East foes — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to play the Eagles in Philadelphia. Take all the points. 10* NFL Sunday Daily Discounted Deal with Dallas Cowboys (271) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (271) and the Philadelphia Eagles (272). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-5) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 25-3 upset loss at Washington last week. Philadelphia (2-4-1) looks to build off their 22-21 win over the New York Giants last week as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Dallas has also played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They will be turning to rookie Ben Dinucci under center with Andy Dalton on the shelf after suffering a concussion last week. Frankly, the 7th round pick from James Madison cannot do much worse than Dalton has for this team. He passed for over 3400 yards in his senior season taking the Dukes to the national championship game. He adds desperately needed mobility to the position that Dalton lacks — he rushed for 569 yards with seven touchdowns last season for James Madison. I expect offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to get creative with Dinucci with some designed run plays. I also expect more creativity from Moore in getting the ball in the hands of the uber-talented Dallas wide receiving corps. And I expect more from running back Ezekiel Elliott after the Cowboys managed only 83 rushing yards last week against the Football Team. Dallas has played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The offensive line for the Cowboys is mired with injuries but they do expect guard Zack Martin to return to the starting lineup for this game. Dinucci’s mobility will make a big difference. Dallas has played two straight Unders with Dalton being their primary quarterback. The Cowboys have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game that fished Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. Even if Dallas struggles to score points, their defense is likely to offer the Eagles plenty of scoring opportunities. The Cowboys are last in the league by allowing 34.7 PPG — and these opponents are generating 408.1 total YPG against them this season. Philadelphia is scoring 26.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging 380.7 total YPG despite a number of injuries on offense. Quarterback Carson Wentz led an offense that gained 442 yards against the Giants last week — and the Eagles have played 5 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Wentz has thrown six touchdown passes in his last three games. The Philly offense is slowly getting healthier with tackle Lane Johnson, tight end Dallas Goedert, and rookie wide receiver Jalen Reagor all expected to play tonight. And while the Eagles win over the Giants last week finished Under the 44.5 point total, they have then played 12 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog — and they have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against fellow teams from the NFC East. With the number in the low-40s, expect a higher scoring game. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (271) and the Philadelphia Eagles (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-1) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss in overtime at Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday night. San Francisco (4-3) pulled off their second-straight upset victory last week with their 33-6 victory at New England as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle should respond with a strong effort as they are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are also 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Seattle dominated time of possession having the football for over nine minutes longer than the Cardinals — and they outgained them by +53 net yards. If not for a late personal foul that kept an Arizona drive alive, the Seahawks likely win that game. Seattle went into the locker room at halftime with a 27-17 lead — that was the first game in the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson era where they lost a game after enjoying a halftime lead of at least four points. Wilson completed 33 of 50 passes for 388 yards while adding another 84 yards on the ground. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Wilson leads an offense that is tops in the NFL in both scoring 33.8 PPG and in averaging 425.2 total YPG. The Seattle defense is a weakness — and the recently acquired Carlos Dunlap will not be able to play this week given COVID restrictions for newly acquired players. But Carroll expects to get Jamal Adams back on the field after he has been out with a groin injury. The Seahawks surrendered 360 yards last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 6 games in November, the Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. The 49ers are slowly getting a bit healthier — but this remains a shell of the Super Bowl team last season with Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, and Raheem Mostert all on Injured Reserve as they headline a still very long injured list. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Furthermore, the Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the Seahawks — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Seattle. They did upset the Seahawks on the road in the last meeting between these two teams by a 26-21 score last December 29th — but that will likely be even more motivation for Seattle to get back to their winning ways this week. 25* NFC West Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-6) looks to bounce back from their 23-22 upset loss at home to Detroit as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Carolina (3-4) has lost their last two games after their 27-24 loss at New Orleans as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Falcons surrendered 386 yards to the Lions in their loss last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Quarterback Matt Ryan did complete 31 of 42 passes for 338 yards in a losing effort last week. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 250 yards in their last contest. Now the Falcons go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Over is 20-8-1 in Atlanta’s last 29 games against teams with a losing record. The Falcons have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and the Panthers have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC. Carolina has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Panthers are getting great play from quarterback Teddy Bridgewater who is tied for 6th in the NFL by averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Attempt. He heads an offense that is 11th in the league by averaging 263.7 passing YPG — and Carolina should have success moving the football in the air against this Falcons defense that is 31st in the NFL by allowing 333 passing YPG. Atlanta is also last in the NFL by allowing 8.46 Yards-Per-Play. The Panthers return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as the favorite. The Falcons have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against fellow NFC South opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta should have Julio Jones in this game as he deals with his nagging hamstring injury. Jones caught 8 catches for 97 yards last week. The Falcons are averaging 28.4 PPG when Jones plays this season — and the combined final score in those games is 59.4. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (101) and the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-6) looks to bounce back from their 23-22 upset loss at home to Detroit as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Carolina (3-4) has lost their last two games after their 27-24 loss at New Orleans as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta blew their third game where they had a late lead when running back Todd Gurley could not stop himself from stumbling into the end zone after getting first down inside the Lions’ 10-yard line late in that game. The touchdown gave Matthew Stafford one last opportunity to score a touchdown — which he did on the last play of the game — to steal the victory. The Falcons have suffered four upset losses this season — and they have four net close losses in games decide by one scoring possession. Yet Atlanta still has the better roster than the Panthers. And their defense has played better as of late as they have held each of their last three opponents to just 23 points. The Falcons allowed Detroit to gain 386 yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Atlanta goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record, the Falcons have covered the point spread 5 times. Carolina was outgained by the Saints last week by -132 net yards. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 6 points or less. All three of Carolina’s victories have been as an underdog. They return home where they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 11 games as a favorite, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests. There had been speculation that the Panthers would activate Christian McCaffrey for this game — but he remained on the Injured Reserve list this afternoon with his ankle sprain. Carolina is missing some players on their offensive line with tackle Russell Okung downgraded to doubtful with his calf injury and Michael Schofield III on the COVID list. The Panthers are also missing defensive tackle Kawan Short, defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos, and strong safety Juston Burris who are all on IR.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta will be looking to avenge a 23-16 upset loss at home to Carolina on October 11th which was the final game for both head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff before both were fired the next day. Wide receiver Julio Jones did not play in that game either with his hamstring injury — but he is in better health now after hauling in eight catches for 97 yards last week against the Lions. The Falcons are wavering 28.4 PPG when Jones is in the lineup. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-2) looks to bounce back from their 24-16 upset loss at San Francisco last Sunday night as a 2.5-point favorite. Chicago (5-1) has won two games in a row after their 23-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should respond with a strong effort as they have coved the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Now the Rams return home to SoFi Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when laying up to 7 points. Los Angeles is also 13-6-1 ATS in its last 20 games when favored. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Bears are averaging only 21.3 PPG this season — and tapping Nick Foles as their savior for a post-Mitchell Trubisky era has not solved the problem. Chicago has scored only 43 combined points in their last two games while settling for five field goals after stalled drives along the way. Foles is averaging only 5.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt over his last two starts. He is not getting much help from the Bears’ rushing attack that is without running back Tarik Cohen is out the season with a torn ACL. In their two last two victories, Chicago has accumulated only 98 total rushing yards while averaging just 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry. They managed only 63 rushing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 10 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams usually play above expectations when facing a familiar team under head coach Sean McVay as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games against NFC foes. These two teams will be playing for the third straight season after Los Angeles won in Chicago last November 17th by a 17-7 score. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Los Angeles Rams (476). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-1) has won two games in a row after their 23-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2-point underdog. Los Angeles (4-2) looks to bounce back from their 24-16 upset loss at San Francisco last Sunday night as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Chicago’s defense is holding its opponents to just 19.3 PPG this season. The Bears have not allowed more than 26 points all season — and they have held their last three opponents to less than 20 points. But the Chicago offense is another matter entirely. The Bears are averaging only 21.3 PPG this season — and tapping Nick Foles as their savior for a post-Mitchell Trubisky era has not solved the problem. Chicago has scored only 43 combined points in their last two games while settling for five field goals after stalled drives along the way. Foles is averaging only 5.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt over his last two starts. He is not getting much help from the Bears’ rushing attack that is without running back Tarik Cohen is out the season with a torn ACL. In their two last two victories, Chicago has accumulated only 98 total rushing yards while averaging just 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry. Now this team stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Chicago has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as an underdog overall. Furthermore, the Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Rams surrendered 390 yards last week to the 49ers, but they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has been playing good defense as they have held their opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with 318.5 total YPG. The Rams return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when laying the points. Los Angeles has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 6 straight games Under the Total in October — and the Bears have played 4 straight Unders in October. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Los Angeles Rams (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-0) returns to the field after their bye week after last defeating Minnesota by a 27-26 two weeks ago as a 6.5-point favorite. Arizona (4-2) comes off a 38-10 upset win at Dallas on Monday as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle started slowly against the Vikings by going into halftime with a 13-0 deficit — but they rallied to outscore Minnesota in the final 30 minutes by a 27-13 score. The Seahawks are 39-19-4 ATS in their last 62 games are a point spread loss — and this includes them covering the point spread in ten of these last twelve situations. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Seahawks should benefit from the self-scout during their bye week — they have won their last four games under head coach Pete Carroll after this experience. The Seattle offense is clicking behind QB Russell Wilson — they have scored at least 27 points in all five of their games. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 8 straight road games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Arizona may be due for an emotional letdown after their big win on national television. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 28 points. Additionally, while the Cardinals have held their last two opponents to just 10 points each, they are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. They return home after playing their last two games on the road but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle usually wins expected close games — they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. That is the Russell Wilson effect. The Seahawks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Arizona against the Cardinals. 10* NFL Seattle-Arizona NBC-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-0) returns to the field after their bye week after last defeating Minnesota by a 27-26 two weeks ago as a 6.5-point favorite. Arizona (4-2) comes off a 38-10 upset win at Dallas on Monday as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning at least three games in a row. Seattle comes off their bye week which means head coach Pete Carroll and his staff has conducted their self-scout regarding what they need to improve. There is no question that the defensive-oriented Carroll made decisions regarding how to improve his defense that is last in the league by allowing 471.2 total YPG. The Seahawks will not have Jamal Adams tonight but they should still play better on that side of the football — even if it means that they do not “Let Russ Cook” as much because they need to run the ball more to protect their defense by keeping them off the field. The fewer plays a defensive player has to make, the fresher he will be later in the game — that is what the coaches say. Seattle has allowed at least 415 yards in all five of their games this season — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Seahawks have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games. The 27 points that Seattle scored last week were the fewest they have put up on the scoreboard all season. The Seahawks have played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. Seattle goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. The Seahawks have also played 4 straight games Under the Total in October. Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Arizona has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. The Cardinals will take a page out of the Vikings’ playbook to run the football to keep Wilson off the field. Seattle was on offense for just 20:32 minutes against Minnesota with the Vikings running the ball 40 times for 201 yards. QB Kyler Murray may get the headlines but Arizona is averaging 30 rushing attempts per game for 161 rushing YPG. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Seahawks’ last 5 games after they allowed at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. This commitment to keeping the running game going has helped the Cardinals rank second in the league by allowing 18.7 PPG. Arizona returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played did not see more than 40 combined points scored in their two divisional meetings last season — and the last 5 clashes in Arizona have all finished Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Denver Broncos (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-1) returns to action after their 26-17 win at Buffalo on Monday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (2-3) look to build off their 18-12 upset win at New England last Sunday as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Bills to just 206 total yards. Kansas City is allowing only 21.2 PPG this season. Offensive coordinator has his offense running the ball a bit more as they are averaging 30 rushing attempts per game while averaging 140 rushing YPG. This is helping to keep opposing offenses off the field as they are averaging 31:22 minutes per game. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Kansas City stays on the road where they have played 6 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. And in their last 9 games against AFC West rivals, the Chiefs have played 7 of these games Under the Total. Denver held the Patriots to just 288 total yards last week. The Broncos have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and the Under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Denver returns home where they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Under is 18-8-1 in the Broncos’ last 27 games as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total as the dog. The Denver offense behind QB Drew Lock is averaging only 305.2 total YPG which is resulting in just 20.0 PPG. They will want to run the ball plenty to burn time off the clock to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. This approach should ensure a lower-scoring game as the Broncos have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 5-2-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams when playing in Denver. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Denver Broncos (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). THE SITUATION: New England (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 18-12 upset loss to Denver last Sunday as a 7-point favorite. San Francisco (3-3) enters this game triumphant after their 24-16 upset win over the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the first time that Bill Belichick’s team has been below .500 in October in 225 games. Their 26-10 loss at Kansas City two weeks ago was not a surprise since they were without Cam Newton in that game. Do not underestimate the negative impact the lack of practices has had on this team over the last two weeks. I believe Belichick and his coaching staff were able to address a host of issues this week in what was their first uninterrupted normal week of preparation since their 36-20 victory over the Raiders three weeks ago. Belichick’s teams in New England are a decisive 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games after a straight-up loss. I expect this Patriots’ offense to improve significantly this week after struggling against the Broncos. New England has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after not scoring more than 14 points in two straight contests. The Patriots defense is playing quite well — they held the Chiefs to just 19 points from their offense while limiting them to only 323 yards two weeks ago before holding the Broncos to 299 yards last week. Belichick teams usually are reliable in October as they are 42-17-2 ATS in their last 61 games in this month — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in seven of their last ten games in October. New England has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. San Francisco may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win at home against an NFC West rival. The 49ers are starting to get healthy again — but they are still a shell of the team that made it to the Super Bowl. The defense remains a M*A*S*H unit with Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and Richard Sherman out indefinitely. The Niners will also be without the glue of their defense for the second straight week in linebacker Kwon Alexander who is dealing with a high ankle sprain. On offense, the team put running back Raheem Mostert on IR this week to join Tevin Coleman on that list. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games in October. They are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Belichick should have a special game plan for 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo who he drafted and groomed in New England for years before trading him to San Francisco. 25* NFL CBS-TV Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (478). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-0) looks to build off their 38-7 win over Cleveland last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Tennessee (5-0) also remained undefeated last week with their 42-36 win in overtime against Houston as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should build off their momentum as they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, the Steelers are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. Pittsburgh is also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Now the Steelers go back on the road where they are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Titans rolled up 607 yards of offense against the hapless Texans defense last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. QB Ryan Tannehill completed 30 of 41 passes for 366 yards in that game — but Tennessee is 18-44-2 ATS in their last 64 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Titans are rolling — but they suffered a massive blow when their left tackle, Taylor Lewan, suffered a season-ending knee injury. Moving forward, Tennessee’s lack of a pass rush may hold them back when facing elite teams. This helps explain why they are last in the league in third-down defense. And in their last 15 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Big Ben Roethlisberger and this Pittsburgh team are very tough when playing the role of the underdog. The Steelers are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road as a dog. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (477) plus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (463) and the New York Jets (464). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-2) ha lost two straight games after their 26-17 loss to Kansas City on Monday as a 5.5-point underdog. New York (0-6) remained winless on the season last Sunday with their listless 24-0 loss at Miami as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Buffalo offense managed only 206 yards against the Chiefs on Monday. The Josh Allen for Most Valuable Player talk has completely ceased after the Bills have scored only 21.0 PPG over the last three weeks while averaging just 304.0 total YPG. Allen completed just 14 of 27 passes on Monday for 122 yards. Buffalo has played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not passing for at least 150 yards in their last contests. The Bills’ defense surrendered 466 yards to Kansas City as well — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Buffalo goes on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Bills have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 6 straight games away from home Under the Total with the total in that 42.5 to 49 range. Playing the Jets may be just what the proverbial doctor ordered as their injury-plagued offense is scoring just 12.5 PPG while averaging 276.7 total YPG. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 21 points. Joe Flacco was the quarterback last week in getting a shutout — and Sam Darnold is probable to play this afternoon. But with running back Le’ Veon Bell traded to Kansas City, he simply lacks supporting talent at the skill positions. The Jets have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New York has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East foes.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the September 13th meeting between these two teams which the Bills won by a 27-17 score. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (463) and the New York Jets (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (304). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) snapped their five-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-19 win over Washington as a 2-point favorite. Philadelphia (1-4-1) has lost two games in a row with their 30-28 loss at home to Baltimore as a 10.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York should build off the momentum of winning their first game of the season under rookie head coach Joe Judge. Remember, Judge did not have a typical offseason to implement his program — so the first month of the season had to be a continuation of that work. I expect continued improvement from this team under Judge. As it is, the Giants have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. the Giants’ defense has been playing pretty good — they are holding their home hosts to just 315.3 total YPG this season. This has helped New York cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. And they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against fellow teams from the NFC. Additionally, New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Eagles generated 364 yards against the Ravens defense last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Philly offense is riddled with injuries. They will be without running back Miles Sanders for a few weeks with his knee injury which means their lead back tonight will be the 5’7 Boston Scott who has rushed for only 67 yards on 21 carries. QB Carson Wentz is without a number of his best targets in the passing game. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey and tight end Dallas Goedert are out for tonight. Star tight end Zach Ertz has yet to be ruled out but he suffered ankle injuries that the doctors think will keep him on the shelf for weeks. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson plans to take the field tonight after missing the last three games but it remains to be seen how effective the 33-year old can be coming off a hamstring injury that may impact his speed. The Eagles offensive line is even in worse shape. Starters Brandon Brooks, Andre Dillard, and Isaac Seumaol are all out. The team brought back Jason Peters after Dillard suffered his season-ending biceps injury — and he is also on the Injured Reserve. Tackle Lane Johnson will take the field despite his ankle injury but rookie backup Jack Driscoll is out tonight with an ankle. Wentz has been sacked 25 times this season — and being hurried has contributed to his nine interceptions. The Giants have a good pass rush that ranks 10th in the legacy with 15 sacks. Philadelphia stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have won the last six meetings between these two teams after sweeping both games last season. But Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when laying the points. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) snapped their five-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-19 win over Washington as a 2-point favorite. Philadelphia (1-4-1) has lost two games in a row with their 30-28 loss at home to Baltimore as a 10.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played a decisive 31 of their last 42 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by no more than a field goal against an NFC East rival. Additionally, New York has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games away from home Under the Total after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread. The Giants are struggling to score points with running back Saquon Barkley out the season with his torn ACL. New York is scoring just 16.8 PPG while averaging a mere 275.3 total YPG. The Giants leading rusher is QB Daniel Jones — they are 30th in the league by averaging 87.8 rushing YPG. They did pick up Devonta Freeman to be their lead back but he is simply not a threat — his longest carry has gone for only 14 yards. Opposing defenses can lay off the run and use a linebacker to defend against potential passes. But the Giants’ defense has been playing pretty good — they are holding their home hosts to just 315.3 total YPG this season. New York has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles have played two straight Overs where at least 58 combined points were scored. But Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 42 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Philly offense is riddled with injuries. They will be without running back Miles Sanders for a few weeks with his knee injury which means their lead back tonight will be the 5’7 Boston Scott who has rushed for only 67 yards on 21 carries. QB Carson Wentz is without a number of his best targets in the passing game. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey and tight end Dallas Goedert are out for tonight. Star tight end Zach Ertz has yet to be ruled out but he suffered an ankle injury that the doctors think will keep him on the shelf for weeks. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson plans to take the field tonight after missing the last three games but it remains to be seen how effective the 33-year old can be coming off a hamstring injury that may impact his speed. The Eagles offensive line is even in worse shape. Starters Brandon Brooks, Andre Dillard, and Isaac Seumaol are all out. The team brought back Jason Peters after Dillard suffered his season-ending biceps injury — and he is also on the Injured Reserve. Tackle Lane Johnson will take the field despite his ankle injury but rookie backup Jack Driscoll is out tonight with an ankle. Wentz has been sacked 25 times this season — and being hurried has contributed to his nine interceptions. The Giants have a good pass rush that ranks 10th in the legacy with 15 sacks. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Totals at home laying 3.5 to 7 points. The Eagles have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (275) and the Dallas Cowboys (276). THE SITUATION: Arizona (3-2) enters this game coming off a 30-10 win in New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (2-3) comes off a 37-34 win over New York Giants as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have to adjust to running their offense without Dak Prescott who suffered a season-ending ankle injury last week. Andy Dalton is capable at quarterback but he does have Prescott’s mobility. Dallas also does not want Dalton throwing the ball close to 50 times a game as what Prescott was about averaging. The Cowboys are going to have to run the football to take the pressure off Dalton — and that will also help their defense by keeping them relatively fresh since they will be on the field for fewer plays. Dallas has scored at least 31 points in each of their last four games — and they have then played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in four straight games. The Cowboys have given up 20 and 31 points in their last two games — and they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. And while Dallas has averaged 6.48 Yards-Per-Play in four straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in four straight contests. The Cowboys have lost the turnover battle in four straight games as well — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after having at least a -1 net turnover margin in four straight games. Dallas did hold the Giants to just 89 rushing yards last week — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while Kyler Murray completed 27 of 37 passes for 380 yards against the Jets, the Cardinals have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona stays on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games away from home Under the Total with the total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in October. Arizona games have seen an average of 46 combined points per game so far this season — expect the final score of this game to be closer to that mark than the 68.6 combined points per game that had been scored in Dallas’ games. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (275) and the Dallas Cowboys (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-3) enters this game coming off a 37-34 win at home over the New York Giants last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Arizona (3-2) looks to build off their 30-10 win at New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: The big news for Dallas is the season-ending injury to Dak Prescott. I think the offense will continue to be productive with Andy Dalton under center. The Red Rider is a veteran with playoff experience who needed to get out of Cincinnati. He has tons of offensive weapons with the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott at running back along with one of the most talented and deepest wide receiving corps in the league. I also think the strength of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is his initial scheming (not so much with his ability to adapt) — so I think Dallas will have a short-term advantage with Moore’s wrinkles with the offense as he shapes it to Dalton’s strength. Look for the Cowboys to come out with plenty of energy as they look to salvage their season — and they are still in first place in the hapless NFC East. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. And while the Cowboys have not covered the point spread in any of their games this season, Dallas has then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four straight games. The Cowboys lead the NFL by averaging 488.0 total YPG — and that usually is a good sign for them moving forward. After scoring 75 combined points in their last two games, Dallas has scored at least 31 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 35 points in their last two contests. The Cowboys have gained at least 408 yards in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining at last 400 yards in three straight games. And while Dallas has averaged at least 6.48 Yards-Per-Play in their last four contests, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in four straight contests. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Cardinals dominated the woeful Jets by outgaining them by +211 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +200 net yards. Quarterback Kyler Murray completed 27 of 37 passes for 380 yards in the victory — but Arizona is just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Cardinals are just 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This Arizona team is also without their All-Pro linebacker Chandler Jones who suffered a season-ending biceps injury. Not only will the Cardinals miss his 19 sacks from last season but they are also without linebacker Devon Kennard.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing on Monday Night Football while Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on MNF. Look for the Cowboys to pull out the victory behind Dalton. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Buffalo Bills (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (4-1) looks to rebound from their 40-33 upset loss at home to Las Vegas as an 11-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (4-1) comes off a 42-16 upset loss at Tennessee on Tuesday where they were 3-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs played their worst defensive game of the season against the Raiders who popped the for 490 yards of offense against them. This is an improving defense under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo whose unit is allowing just 22.0 PPG. Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Chiefs go back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on the road — and they have 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And while Patrick Mahomes passed for 340 yards against the Raiders’ defense, Kansas City has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where they passed for at least 300 yards. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Bills did hold the Titans to just 334 yards in an improved effort from their defense — but they allowed Tennessee to score touchdowns on all six of their Red Zone trips. Yet this remains a team that has played 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City will be without wide receiver Sammie Watkins who is out with a hamstring injury — and that takes away an important deep threat for Mahomes. The Bills will look to back to basics with their run game tonight to limit Mahomes’ possessions. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Kansas City-Buffalo Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Buffalo Bills (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). THE SITUATION:  Los Angeles (4-1) has won two straight games with their 30-10 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-3) was upset for the second straight week last Sunday with their 43-17 shellacking at the hands of Miami as an 8.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits. The Los Angeles defense flexed their muscles by sacking Football Team quarterbacks seven times while holding them to just 108 total yards of offense. The Rams limited Washington to only 38 rushing yards in that game — and they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing at least 90 rushing yards in their last game. They also have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last contest. Now Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total. They also have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total in games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 5 games in October, the game finished Under the Total all 5 times. San Francisco has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 10 points at home. The Under is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The 49ers are also simply ravaged with injuries especially on defense where Richard Sherman, Joey Bosa, and Dee Ford are on IR while linebacker Kwon Alexander is out with an ankle. Yet despite all this attrition, San Francisco is fifth in the NFL by allowing only 323.0 YPG — and they are third in the league by allowing only 215.6 passing YPG and only six touchdown passes. They allowed 350 passing yards last week — but the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The 49ers have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played five of their last six games Under the Total on the road when laying the points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (273) and the San Francisco 49ers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). THE SITUATION:  San Francisco (2-3) was upset for the second straight week last Sunday with their 43-17 shellacking at the hands of Miami as an 8.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-1) has won two straight games with their 30-10 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for San Francisco after they have been upset in two straight games as a favorite laying more than a touchdown in two straight weeks in what was supposed to be a fruitful three-game homestand. The Niners were upset at home two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles (when we successfully had Philly) before their upset loss at home to the Dolphins last week. San Francisco goes on the road next week for a brutal two-game swing at New England and then Seattle. With the NFC West also including an up-and-coming Arizona team, head coach Kyle Shanahan simply needs to get a victory from his team tonight. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by at least 21 points. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was probably rushed back to action last week with his bum ankle as he could not plant his leg which led to him completing only 7 of 17 passes while throwing two interceptions last week before Shanahan got him out of there at halftime. Garoppolo should be better this week — and the pressure will be on for him to perform. The 49ers are also simply ravaged with injuries especially on defense where Richard Sherman, Joey Bosa, and Dee Ford are on IR while linebacker Kwon Alexander is out with an ankle. Yet despite all this attrition, San Francisco is fifth in the NFL by allowing only 323.0 YPG — and they are third in the league by allowing only 215.6 passing YPG and only six touchdown passes. The 49ers should step up in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have not allowed more than 10 points in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. The Rams held the Football Team to just 108 yards of offense last week while limiting them to only a 2.45 Yards-Per-Play average. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after holding their last opponent to no more than 3.5 YPP. And while the combination of Alex Smith and Kyle Allen only managed 70 total passing yards last week, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: All four of Los Angeles’ victories have been against the weak NFC East teams — so their great stats may be propped up by a favorable early schedule. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (281) and the New England Patriots (282). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-3) gets back on the field after their 37-28 upset win at New York against the Jets on October 1st as a 1-point favorite. New England (2-2) looks to rebound from their 26-10 loss at Kansas City in their last game on October 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 13-3-1 in the Broncos’ last 17 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after a point spread victory. The Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Look for the Denver offense to be rusty with the 17 days between games. The Broncos will also have QB Drew Lock under center but he is not 100% with his shoulder injury. Lock will not have two important weapons to help him with tight end Noah Fant out with an injury and running back not making the trip to New England given an illness. Those are some tough losses for an offense that is scoring only 20.5 PPG along with jut 306.8 total YPG. New England has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Patriots have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Patriots have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. New England does get Cam Newton back under center but this offense might also be out-of-synch having not played in thirteen days (longer without Newton) and them still dealing their facilities being closed intermittently due to new COVID cases.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are good defense — they limited the Chiefs offense to just 323 yards of offense and just 19 points with Kansas City’s final touchdown coming from an interception return. New England has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Patriots have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (281) and the New England Patriots (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 30-23 win at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on October 4th. Tennessee (3-0) finally takes the field again after last playing on September 27th where they defeated the Vikings in Minnesota by a 31-30 score as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread win. Additionally, while Buffalo allowed 383 yards to the Raiders in their last game, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bills stay on the road where the Under is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games away from home. The Under is also 9-3-1 in Buffalo’s last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee defeated the Vikings in their last game despite allowing 464 yards in that game. The Titans have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Tennessee allowed 480 total yards in their previous game against Jacksonville — but head coach Mike Vrabel should get his defense to play better tonight. Not only have the Titans played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games but they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in two straight contests. I like the extended time that Vrabel and his staff have had to devise a scheme-specific against the Bills’ QB Josh Allen. But the Titans have issues on offense. While wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to play despite his injured knee, quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be without his other two starting wide receivers in Corey Davis and Adam Humphries who are both on the COVID list. The seventeen days since their last game along with just two practices since the Tennessee facilities opened up again on Saturday could hurt the efficiency of the Titans offense as they look to get back in-synch.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October while the Under is 5-2-1 in Buffalo’s last 8 games in October. 10* NFL Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-0) finally takes the field again after last playing on September 27th where they defeated the Vikings in Minnesota by a 31-30 score as a 3-point favorite. Buffalo (4-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 30-23 win at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on October 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Endorsing Tennessee for this game first required an up-to-date assessment regarding who will be playing tonight. The news early this afternoon is that both left tackle Taylor Lewan and wide receiver A.J. Brown are expected to play after being listed as questionable on the last official injured list submitted to the league on Saturday. I thought this would be the case with the extra days to rest and rehabilitate — but confirmation was essential for me to push the proverbial button on this play. The Titans have a long lost of players out due to COVID with wide receivers Adam Humphries and Corey Davis being two of those players. I do have sources at the private high school in Nashville where Tennessee conducted informal workouts last week violating NFL guidelines. These workouts were on multiple days (good!) that involved quarterback Ryan Tannehill (good!) working with coaches (good!) in passing drills which are presumably the players that will be taking Humphries and Davis spots tonight (good!). I am not thrilled that the Titans will have had only two practices back at their open facilities since Saturday — but that is similar to the regimen for teams playing on a Thursday after a short week. At least Tennessee has stayed at home this entire time. And getting seventeen days of rest does not hurt. I think this will be a big night for running back Derrick Henry (who was not at the informal workouts — he was resting, which is good!) who may be poised to have his best game of the season running behind Lewan. I also like the extended time that head coach Mike Vrabel and his staff have had to devise a scheme-specific against the Bills’ QB Josh Allen. The only other significant loss for the Titans from COVID is defensive end, Jeffery Simmons. Tennessee has not covered the point spread yet this season — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after both a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread in and after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Tannehill led an offense that generated 444 yards against the Vikings in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 400 yards. And in their last 12 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Tennessee has covered the point spread 8 times. Buffalo has won and covered the point spread in all four of their games this season — but I don’t like it when teams that are red hot get out of their routine. As it is, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning at least four games in a row. Additionally, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 60 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Bills have won all three of their games decided by one possession including two wins by just a field goal. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in their win over the Raiders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow AFC opponents while Buffalo is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against AFC foes. While skepticism over the Titans after their long break is deserved, the market has over-adjusted (fueled by the Allen-hype) in making them road favorites of at least a field goal where they would typically be small road dogs according to most power rankings. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 38-31 loss at Tampa Bay as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 35-29 victory in Detroit against the Lions as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers put up 31 points against a good Buccaneers defense despite only generating 324 total yards in that game. They have then played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring at last 30 points in their last game. Led by rookie Justin Herbert, Los Angeles has generated at least 278 passing yards in three straight games — but they have then played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after passing for at least 275 yards in three straight games including playing five of these last six situations Under the Total. Herbert is lacking plenty of support in this game with offensive linemen Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga along with jack-of-all-trades running back Austin Ekeler out for tonight. And while Tom Brady torched the Chargers’ secondary missing Delvin Ingram for 369 passing yards in that game, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while the Saints raced out to a 28-14 halftime lead against the Lions, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. New Orleans returns home where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Quarterback Drew Brees is also dealing with a banged-up offensive line with injuries to Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk that leave them questionable for tonight. And while wide receiver Michael Thomas was questionable with the ankle that kept him out the previous two games, he was suspended for tonight’s game by the field after a physical altercation with a teammate.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total in October while the Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in October games. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 38-31 loss at Tampa Bay as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 35-29 victory in Detroit against the Lions as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. New Orleans is a banged-up football team. On defense, cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Marston Lattimore along with defensive end Marcus Davenport are all questionable with injuries. On offense, the offensive line is dealing with injuries to Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk that leave them questionable for tonight. And while wide receiver Michael Thomas was questionable with the ankle that kept him out the previous two games, he was suspended for tonight’s game by the field after a physical altercation with a teammate. All these issues will make it harder for a team to cover a point spread of about a touchdown — the Saints just want the victory. They are scoring 30.8 PPG — but they are also allowing 30.8 PPG so far this season. They return home to the Big Easy where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when laying the points. Los Angeles has lost all three of their games by 7 points or less. The Chargers had a 24-7 lead in the second quarter against the Buccaneers before blowing that lead to Tom Brady and company. They also blew a lead against Kansas City before losing that game in overtime — and a fumbled lateral in the waning moments of their game with Carolina probably cost them that victory. This is a quality roster with a good head coach in Anthony Lynn. I am worried about their injuries — particularly on the offensive line. But the Chargers put up 31 points against a very good Tampa Bay defense despite the injuries to Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga who are starters on their offensive line. They seem to have made the right decision in drafting Justin Herbert at quarterback. The rookie has completed 72% of his passes for 831 yards and an 8.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average. Running back Austin Ekeler is out but they have a solid stable of running backs with rookie Joshua Kelley out of UCLA and former Northwestern Wildcat Josh Jackson. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after losing at least three games in a row. The Chargers are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games with the total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog — and they are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 road games when getting the points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on Monday Night Football — and remember that they will not have a packed and rowdy home crowd for this game given COVID restrictions. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-3) won their first game of the season last Sunday with their 31-23 upset win at Houston as a 3.5-point underdog. Seattle (4-0) remains unbeaten this season after they defeated Miami on the road last week by a 31-23 score as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Kirk Cousins has received his usual level of criticism during the losing streak — but he has led an offense that has scored 61 combined points over the last two games and that has reached the 30-point threshold in three of their four games this season. Justin Jefferson has emerged as a solid replacement for Stefon Diggs and a good complement to Adam Thielen — he has 11 receptions for 278 yards. Minnesota generated 410 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings have also played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total. The problem for this Minnesota team has been the collapse of their defense that really needed a normal preseason with exhibition games to address the departures from last season. The Vikings are allowing 31.3 PPG. Seattle has played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have passed for at least 275 yards in all four of their games — after QB Russell Wilson completed 24 of his 34 passes last week of 360 yards — and the Seahawks have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. But the bigger concern is their defense that is allowing 476.8 total YPG. The Seahawks have allowed at least 312 passing yards in all four of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight games. Now Seattle returns home where the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing in Seattle. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (475) and the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-3) won their first game of the season last Sunday with their 31-23 upset win at Houston as a 3.5-point underdog. Seattle (4-0) remains unbeaten this season after they defeated Miami on the road last week by a 31-23 score as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Earning their first win of the season was a good start — but Minnesota remains in an urgent situation with Green Bay and Chicago only having one loss between the both of them in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has received his usual level of criticism during the losing streak — but he has led an offense that has scored 61 combined points over the last two games and that has reached the 30-point threshold in three of their four games this season. Justin Jefferson has emerged as a solid replacement for Stefon Diggs and a good complement to Adam Thielen — he has 11 receptions for 278 yards. Minnesota generated 410 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Delvin Cook has been outstanding this season with two straight 100-yard rushing efforts. He ran the ball 27 times for 130 yards and two touchdowns last week. Cook’s success running the football allowed the Vikings to control the time of possession for 36:31 minutes — and this will be the formula for success tonight to keep Russell Wilson off the field. Minnesota rushed for 162 yards overall against the Texans — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Vikings are also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October. Seattle looks to become 5-0 on the season for the first time in franchise history. They have passed for at least 275 yards in all four of their games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. But the bigger concern is their defense that is allowing 476.8 total YPG. The Seahawks are being outgained by -60.5 net YPG this season — it is their +5 net turnover margin that has helped them overcome that disparity. But the turnovers are fickle — and Seattle will not have the services of their star defensive back Jamal Adams for this game as he deals with a groin injury. As it is, the Seahawks have allowed at least 312 passing yards in all four of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight games. Seattle returns home where they will not have any fans in the stadium — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games. The Seahawks are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Cousins has the reputation of folding under the bright lights of nationally-televised prime-time games — but the numbers do not support that claim for Sunday Night Football. Cousin has led his team to a victory in four of his six starts on a Sunday night. Furthermore, his 320.5 passing YPG average, 73.3% completion percentage, and his 117.3 Passer Rating represent the best marks of all NFL quarterbacks playing on Sunday Night Football. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (452) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (451). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-4) remained winless this season after their 30-16 loss at Green Bay on Monday as a 5-point underdog. Carolina (2-2) pulled off their second straight upset victory last Sunday with their 31-21 win at home against Arizona as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: Atlanta has had success playing a short week after a game on Monday Night Football as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after playing on MNF. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after losing four in a row. Atlanta’s secondary is a disaster right now with injuries — but head coach Dan Quinn activated rookie A.J. Terrell after he was diagnosed with COVID. Keanu Allen and Ricardo Allen might be able to play with both listed as questionable. The 403 yards they surrendered to the Packers was the lowest amount in their last three games — and not only have they covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game but they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 52 games after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Panthers go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. And in their last 26 games against teams with a losing record, they are just 7-18-1 ATS. The Panthers will be without defensive back Eli Apple who is out with a hamstring injury. Considering that Carolina is last in the NFL with only three sacks on the season, Matt Ryan should have a field day picking apart the Panthers secondary.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight trips to Atlanta to face the Falcons. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Atlanta Falcons (452) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-4) remained winless last week after their 31-23 upset loss at Minnesota last Sunday despite being a 3.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 33-25 loss at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston sacked head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien after Sunday’s loss. The speculation is that J.J. Watt’s frustration with O’Brien finally boiled over which resulted in a verbal altercation between the two. When the star players begin to turn on you, then ownership needed to make a move to change the atmosphere. Because Watt demonstrated leadership to take on O’Brien in a move he had to think would cause waves, I expect a big from him and the rest of the team as they rally around each other and interim head coach Romeo Crennel who is universally-liked on the team. At 73-years old, Crennel not only replaces Pete Carroll as the league’s elder statesman at head coach but he will be the oldest head coach in NFL history. As it is, the Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when staying at home after a loss at home. Houston has also covered the point spread in their last 3 games after an upset loss at home. The biggest problem for this team is their run defense as they rank last in the league by allowing 181.1 rushing YPG. They have allowed all four of their opponents to rush for at least 162 yards this season — but not only have they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yard in two straight games but they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in three straight games. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Jaguars’ defense has issues of their own after allowing the Bengals to rack up 505 yards last week with 205 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards. The Jags will be without cornerback D.J. Hayden who was placed on injured reserve this week with a hamstring injury. Look for Deshaun Watson to have a big game against the inexperienced Jacksonville secondary. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. And in their last 9 games in October, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Teams that fired their head coach midseason have only covered the point spread twice in these last eight situations — but that limited sample size deserves some context. Often these moves are made later in the season when the team is out of playoff contention and planning their offseason. And often the fired head coach was generally liked and respected — Carolina laid an egg in their first game after Ron Rivera was fired late in the year as they appeared dejected with the move by ownership. I suspect the Houston players have had the Wizard of Oz on loop all week because they think that the “wicked witch is dead.” The Texans won both meetings between these two teams last season so they have to think this is a winnable game if they get back to basics. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Chicago Bears (302). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-1) has won three straight games with their 38-31 win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 7.5-point favorite. Chicago (3-1) lost their first game of the season on Sunday with their 19-11 loss at home to Indianapolis as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Chicago has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring less than 15 points in their last contest. Quarterback Nick Foles struggled as the starter in this game — the Bears offense managed only 269 total yards in that game. The Chicago rushing attack did not help the offense’s cause as they managed only 28 rushing yards on 16 carries for a meager 1.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. But the Bears defense did play well by limiting the Colts to only 289 total yards. Chicago is 7th in the league by allowing only 20.2 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record overall — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog. Tampa Bay has won three straight games — and this is a franchise that has played a decisive 56 of their last 87 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Injuries will likely slow down this team this week. Quarterback Tom Brady did not have his top four wide receivers available to practice on Tuesday. Chris Godwin and Justin Watson are now out for this game with Mike Evan a game-time decision and Scottie Miller likely to play despite being questionable. Tight end O.J. Howard was already lost for the season on Sunday with his Achilles’ injury. This leaves Brady without many weapons — and while he might have been able to manufacture offense with the players he knew very well back in his New England days, playing on a short week with a new cast of characters and a new offense presents a much different challenge. And while Brady has led the offense to average 30.0 PPG in their three-game winning streak, they have faced the Panthers, Broncos (without the injured Von Miller), and Chargers (without the injured Derwin James and Melvin Ingram) in those games. I expect the Bucs to lean heavily on their ground game with Ronald Jones leading the way along with their outstanding defense. Tampa Bay is 4th in the NFL by allowing only 312.0 total YPG — and they are 2nd in the league by holding their opponents to just 64.3 rushing YPG. The Buccaneers also have 14 sacks which are the 3rd most in the NFL — and they are 2nd in the league with eight takeaways. Tampa Bay has played 26 of their last 43 road games Under the Total when favored by up to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Bruce Arians has been an Over Machine in the league — especially during his time in Tampa Bay. But some of that credit/blame goes to Jameis Winston who was a turnover machine. Interestingly, in the seven games in Tampa Bay and Arizona has been the head coach for a Thursday night game, the game finished Under the Total 5 times. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Chicago Fox-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301) and the Chicago Bears (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (302) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-1) lost their first game of the season on Sunday with their 19-11 loss at home to Indianapolis as a 3.5-point underdog. Tampa Bay (3-1) has won three straight games with their 38-31 win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Nick Foles struggled in his first start in a Chicago uniform but he did look more in synch in the second half of that game where he led the offense to their only touchdown. He completed 26 of 42 passes for 249 yards. He did not get much help from the rushing game last week — but eight penalties that accounted for 103 total yards were killers for the Bears. The Chicago defense played well by limiting the Colts to only 289 total yards. And for the second straight game, the Bears lost the turnover battle. But Chicago has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 home games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The Bears are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Chicago is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has won three in a row against less than the stellar competition with victories over Carolina and Denver before the Chargers last week. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Injuries will likely slow down this team this week. Quarterback Tom Brady did not have his top four wide receivers available to practice on Tuesday. Chris Godwin and Justin Watson are now out for this game with Mike Evan a game-time decision and Scottie Miller likely to play despite being questionable. Tight end O.J. Howard was already lost for the season on Sunday with his Achilles’ injury. This leaves Brady without many weapons — and while he might have been able to manufacture offense with the players he knew very well back in his New England days, playing on a short week with a new cast of characters and a new offense presents a much different challenge. Furthermore, while Brady completed 30 of his 46 passes for 369 yards last week against the Chargers in his best game as a Buccaneer, Tampa Bay is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Furthermore, the Bucs are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games when favored — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Look for Chicago to play much better tonight than they did on Sunday. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (302) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (279) and the Green Bay Packers (280). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-3) will be playing with desperation tonight after losing their third straight game last Sunday by a 30-26 score despite being a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they upset New Orleans last Sunday night by a 37-30 score on the road as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Falcons defense is ravaged with injuries. The team is without Ricardo Allen, A.J. Terrell, Darqueze Dennard, and Keanu Neal. Atlanta’s pass defense is second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 350.3 passing YPG and the nine touchdown passes they have allowed are tied for last in the NFL. The Falcons have also allowed 15 passing plays of 20 or more yards which is tied for the second-most in the league. They allowed the Bears to gain 437 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Atlanta allowed the Cowboys to gain 570 yards against them two weeks ago in their 40-39 loss in Dallas — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 450 yards. The Falcons have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after giving up at least 30 points in their last contest. Atlanta is moving the ball on offense — they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 419.0 total YPG. Matt Ryan is 3rd in the NFL with 961 passing yards this season — and he has seven touchdown passes to just two interceptions. The Falcons go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. Green Bay has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win. And while they allowed the Saints to gain 397 yards last week, they have then played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This Packers defense that is last in the NFL by allowing 6.6 Yards-Per-Play. Opposing quarterbacks have racked up a Passer Rating of 113.4 which is the 3rd highest in the league. Green Bay is also allowing opposing rushers to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Packers return home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5. Green Bay has also played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Even without his top two wide receivers, Davante Adams and Allan Lazard,  who are out with injuries tonight, Aaron Rodgers should be able to move the ball supported by a rushing attack that is averaging 177 rushing YPG. He completed passes to eight different receivers last week — and he is completing 67% of his passes. Expect a shootout tonight. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (279) and the Green Bay Packers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-3) will be playing with desperation tonight after losing their third straight game last Sunday by a 30-26 score despite being a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they upset New Orleans last Sunday night by a 37-30 score on the road as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta had a 26-10 lead with 6 1/2 minutes to go in that game before surrendering the final 20 points in that game to lose to the Bears. That collapse came on the heels of them blowing a 39-24 lead with 5 minutes left in the game two weeks ago against the Cowboys in their 40-39 loss. The Falcons may not be able to keep a lead — but they remain competitive. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Atlanta is moving the ball on offense — they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 419.0 total YPG. They generated 371 yards last week against the Bears — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They should be able to score against this Packers defense that is last in the NFL by allowing 6.6 Yards-Per-Play. Opposing quarterbacks have racked up a Passer Rating of 113.4 which is the 3rd highest in the league. Green Bay is also allowing opposing rushers to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons’ biggest problem is their defense that is ravaged with injuries in their secondary. They allowed the Bears to gain 437 yards last week after the Cowboys gained 570 yards against them. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three games in a row. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games off a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. They will not have the services of their best wide receiver, Davante Adams, who will not play with a hamstring injury despite him participating in practice at the end of the week. Green Bay is dealing with a number of injuries with wide receiver Allan Lazard and linebacker Christian Kirksey out tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Look for them to keep this game close and perhaps pull the upset. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Special Feature with the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (277) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (278). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-2-1) enters this game coming off a 23-23 tie with Cincinnati where they were 5.5-point favorites. San Francisco (2-1) returns home after winning their two games in the Meadowlands which concluded with their 36-9 win against the Giants last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The 49ers are simply being asked to lay too many points in this situation. The Niners return home after winning both their games in the Meadowlands against the Jets and Giants. Those could be the two worst teams in the league this season — so let’s not start engraving San Francisco’ return to the Super Bowl just yet. As it is, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They return home where they are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games when favored. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Jimmy Garoppolo remains out with his ankle injury so the offense will be led by backup Nick Mullens. San Francisco is dealing with a long list of injuries but the bigger concerns are on defense. Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford along with cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and Akhello Witherspoon are all out for this game. Much has been made of the struggles Carson Wentz is experiencing. He has lowest Passer Rating of all qualifying quarterbacks in the league. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes which is just 28th of qualifying NFL quarterbacks. He is working behind a depleted offensive line riddled with injuries. Yet despite all this, the Eagles did generate 381 yards last week with 185 of those yards coming on the ground. The good news for Wentz is the Miles Sanders has been upgraded to probable to offer him a credible rushing threat that should take some of the pressure off him. The running back has generated 190 rushing yards over his last two games with a crisp 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Turnovers are holding Philadelphia back as they have given the ball up eight times in their three games while forcing only one turnover this season. But turnovers tend to even out over time. The Eagles had a -2 net turnover margin last week — but they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Additionally, Philadelphia is allowing just 330.7 total YPG — and they are outgaining their opponents by 5.6 net YPG. They are playing better than their record. The Eagles go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: With Baltimore and Pittsburgh on deck, this is a critical game for the Eagles as they look for their first win on the season. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in October. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games in October. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (277) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (277) and the San Francisco 49ers (278). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-2-1) enters this game coming off a 23-23 tie with Cincinnati where they were 5.5-point favorites. San Francisco (2-1) returns home after winning their two games in the Meadowlands which concluded with their 36-9 win against the Giants last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Much has been made of the struggles Carson Wentz is experiencing. He has the lowest Passer Rating of all qualifying quarterbacks in the league. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes which is just 28th of qualifying NFL quarterbacks. He is working behind a depleted offensive line riddled with injuries. Yet despite all this, the Eagles did generate 381 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for Wentz is the Miles Sanders has been upgraded to probable to offer him a credible rushing threat that should take some of the pressure off him. The running back has generated 190 rushing yards over his last two games with a crisp 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry average. Last week’s game finished Under the Total —and the Eagles have played 6 straight road games Over the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. And while Philly has yet to cover the point spread this season, they have then played 7 straight games away from home Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Philly did hold the Bengals to just 48 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total if they did not allow more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Eagles have played a decisive 41 of their last 61 games on the road Over the Total — and this tightens to them playing 18 of their last 23 road games Over the Total when they are the underdog. San Francisco has played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a win by at least three touchdowns. The 49ers have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Niners held the Jets and the Giants to only 3 and 6 points in the first half in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. San Francisco is dealing with a long list of injuries — Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford along with cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and Akhello Witherspoon are all out for this game. But the 49ers are getting healthy on offense with tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Deebo Samuel upgraded to probable for this game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo remains out with his ankle injury but backup Nick Mullens has proven himself to be more than capable of operating Kyle Shanahan’s offense at a highly proficient rate. Mullens completed 25 of 36 passes last week for 343 yards without all team’s offensive weapons. The Niners generated 420 yards of offense in that game — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. San Francisco returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 9-3-1 in the 49ers’ last 13 games against fellow NFC opponents — and the Over is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games when favored. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (277) and the San Francisco 49ers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (251) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (252). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (2-1) enters this game coming off a 36-7 win over the New York Jets last Sunday as a 12.5-point favorite. Chicago (3-0) remains unbeaten this season after their 30-26 upset win at Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: It seems son for many observers that the undefeated Bears are a home underdog in this situation — especially with this team liberated from Mitchell Trubisky with head coach Matt Nagy moving on to the veteran Nick Foles. Yet Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while the Bears generated 437 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, while Chicago allowed the Lions to gain 371 yards in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in October. The Bears have not been dangerous underdogs as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when getting the points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Indianapolis scored two defensive touchdowns in their dominant win over the Giants — and their defense limited them to just 260 total yards. Philip Rivers was masterful running the offense as he completed 17 of 21 passes for 217 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. The Colts have won two straight games with this win preceded by a 28-11 victory over the Giants — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Indy has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after they won two straight games by at least two touchdowns. Indy is favored because of their still underrated defense. They lead the NFL by allowing only 225.3 total YPG — and their defense ranks top-five in run defense, pass defense, sacks, and interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games when favored by no more than 3 points. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Chicago CBS-TV Special with the Indianapolis Colts (251) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (258). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (1-2) looks to rebound from their 31-13 upset loss at home on Thursday night in Week Three as a 2.5-point favorite. Cincinnati (0-2-1) comes off a tie last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Dolphins in that game — and Jacksonville did outgain the Dolphins +24 net yards despite only having the ball for 25:38 minutes in that game. The Jags fell behind to trail by a 21-7 score at halftime to get them out of their rushing attack. Look for the undrafted rookie running back James Robinson to have a good game against this Bengals run defense that is allowing 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking last in the NFL by allowing 182 rushing YPG. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the first month of the season. Additionally, the Jags have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. Cincinnati eked out the tie despite being outgained by -77 net yards last Sunday. But the Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Eagles outrushed Cincinnati in that game by a 175 to 48 margin which is a bad sign for now hosting this Jacksonville team. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after being outrushed by at least 100 yards in their last game. Cincinnati surrendered 381 yards to that decimated Philly offense hit hard by injuries — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have failed to cove the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying the points. 10* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but take the points for some insurance) with the Jacksonville Jaguars (257) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Jets (102) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (101). THE SITUATION: New York (0-3) has lost their first three games this season after their 36-7 loss at Indianapolis on Sunday. Denver (0-3) is also winless so far this season with their 28-10 loss at home to Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINTS: New York has failed to cover the point spread in their three games this season — and rumors are flying that head coach Adam Gase may lose his job if his team loses tonight. The Jets have looked like the worst team in the league — and bettors are avoiding them tonight. But this team has cord the point spread in 26 of their last 43 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games and this includes them covering the spread in four of these last six situations. And while the New York defense has allowed at least 27 points in all three of their games, they have then covered the point spread in 3 straight games after allowing at least 25 points in their last game. The injuries have ravaged both teams, which is not a surprise considering neither of these teams has yet to win a game. But the news has been encouraging for the Jets side of things as the week has moved forward. Starting tackle George Fant, wide receiver Jamison Crowder, and cornerback Quincy Wilson have all been upgraded from questionable to probable. Those additions — especially Fant and Crowder — are important. Quarterback Sam Darnold has struggled this season but he should play better after throwing two pick-sixes last week. He will be the better quarterback on the field tonight. The Denver offense was considered a work in progress even before being hit hard by the injury bug. Quarterback Drew Lock is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Jeff Driskel led an offense that generated only 226 yards last week. He was relieved by Brett Rypien in that game — and after the former undrafted QB out of Boise State completed 8 of 9 passes for 53 yards (and an interception in the end zone), head coach Vic Fangio named him the starter for this game despite it being played on a short week. Wide receiver Cortland Sutton is on the IR with an ACL injury while running back Phillip Lindsay is questionable with his injury. The defense is also riddled with a long list of injuries with Von Miller’s ankle injury that put him on IR being the most significant. They have forced only two turnovers this season. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss. And while they allowed 353 yards last week to the Buccaneers, they have are then just 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Denver opened as a small road favorite in the 2-point range before being bet too small underdog by today. The injury updates this week have mostly gone in the Jets’ direction. The Broncos have nine players on IR and linebacker Jeremiah Attaochu has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Either way, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the New York Jets (102) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (101) and the New York Jets (102). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-3) is winless so far this season with their 28-10 loss at home to Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point underdog. New York (0-3) has also lost their first three games this season after their 36-7 loss at Indianapolis on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And with their game with the Buccaneers falling below the 42 point total, they have then played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. The Denver offense was a work in progress even before being hit hard by the injury bug. Quarterback Drew Lock is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Jeff Driskel led an offense that generated only 226 yards last week. He was relieved by Brett Rypien in that game — and after the former undrafted QB out of Boise State completed 8 of 9 passes for 53 yards (and an interception in the end zone), head coach Vic Fangio named him the starter for this game despite it being played on a short week. Wide receiver Cortland Sutton is on the IR with an ACL injury while running back Phillip Lindsay is questionable with his injury. The defense is also riddled with a long list of injuries with Von Miller’s ankle injury that put him on IR being the most significant — but they did receive good news this week with cornerback Bryce Callahan, strong safety Kareem Jackson, and nose tackle Shelby Harris all upgraded to probable and expected to start tonight. The Broncos have allowed 17 and 23 points in the first half of their first two games — but they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. Denver did hold the Buccaneers to just 68 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. And while the Broncos surrendered 353 yards overall to Tampa Bay, the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Denver goes back on the road where the Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 games. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 35 points in their last contest. And while the Jets allowed the Colts to gain 353 yards last week, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. New York managed only 260 yards of offense last week with third-year quarterback Sam Darnold struggling under Adam Gase’s offense. The Jets are scoring only 12.3 PPG this season while averaging 263.7 total YPG. Injuries have not helped Darnold’s cause with running back Le’Veon Bell and rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims both on Injured Reserve and wide receiver Breshard Perriman out with a shoulder injury. Mims and Perriman were new additions this season to jumpstart the Jets’ offense that was 29th in the league by averaging 194.4 passing YPG and totaling just 17.2 PPG which was second-to-last in the NFL.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 6 straight games Under the Total when hosting an AFC opponent — and Denver has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the AFC. While the Total is low, this is one of those games where one (or both) of these teams may not reach double-digits. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (101) and the New York Jets (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (489) and the Baltimore Ravens (490). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-0) rallied from a 17-6 deficit in the 3rd quarter last week to defeat the Chargers in Los Angeles in overtime by a 23-20 score as an 8.5-point favorite. Baltimore (2-0) enters this showdown coming off a 33-16 win at Houston last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win after by at least two touchdowns. The Ravens lead the league in scoring defense by allowing just 24 points this season with their 38-6 win over Cleveland in Week One. Baltimore has played 11 of their 13 games Under the Total after two straight double-digit wins — and they have played 33 of their last 49 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. The Ravens have also played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after two straight wins where they covered the point spread as the favorite. Now Baltimore returns home to M&T Bank Stadium where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Ravens have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when favored. The Baltimore strategy for success tonight will be running the football to burn time off the clock and to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. The Ravens rushed for 230 yards last week against the Texans — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Kansas City surrendered 479 yards last week against the Chargers with 183 of those yards on the ground. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played a whopping 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, Kansas City has played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The public is in love with the Over tonight — and that is creating more value on the under with every half point that the market bets the number up. What is underappreciated is how well the defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuola has done to limit Lamar Jackson. Jackson only had 46 rushing yards in last year’s 33-28 victory for the Chiefs which is the 4th lowest in his career. The benefit of having Tyrann Mathieu allows Spags to both use him as a spy for Jackson running out the backfield as well as a very good defender against tight end Mark Andrews. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (489) and the Baltimore Ravens (490). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-0) enters this showdown coming off a 33-16 win at Houston last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Kansas City (2-0) rallied from a 17-6 deficit in the 3rd quarter to defeat the Chargers in Los Angeles in overtime by a 23-20 score as an 8.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore comes into this game as the top team in the league in point differential with their 38-6 opening week against Cleveland. The Ravens have now won fourteen straight games in the regular season — and the 22 points they have allowed are the fewest in the league going into Week Three. Baltimore should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. They return home to M&T Bank Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Kansas City is showing signs of a Super Bowl hangover — the successful Patrick Mahomes’ rally against the Chargers last week was the fourth time in their last five games where he had to lead his team back from a double-digit deficit. I think the hole they dug themselves in last week is a canary in the coal mine regarding the champs thinking they can turn on and off their switch. This Ravens team is the wrong group to do that against. The Chiefs were outgained by the Charger by 65 yards — and rookie quarterback Justin Herbert led an offense that racked up 479 yards against their defense in his first game as a professional. Not great, Bob. Run defense was one of the liabilities for Kansas City last season in their Super Bowl run — and they are allowing 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry this season which is resulting in 150.4 rushing YPG. They are allowing their opponents a 62% Success Rate in their ground game as well which is 30th in the league. Baltimore is averaging 168 rushing YPG so far this season while averaging 34 rushing attempts per game. The Chiefs are also just 22nd in the NFL in Explosive Play Rate allowed while ranking last in Explosive Pass Play Rate allowed. The tackling for the Kansas City defenders has been shoddy — a product of the lack of a normal preseason along with perhaps some champions’ complacency. These are all bad signs for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss where they failed to cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 6 points or less. And in their last 8 games on field turf, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has had this game circled all offseason after losing to the Chiefs last year by a 33-28 score on September 22nd — and that was after they lost to them in December of 2018 against Mahomes by a 27-24 score in overtime. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (487) and the New Orleans Saints (488). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-0) has started the season unbeaten after defeating the Lions at home in Lambeau Field last week by a 42-21 score as a 7-point favorite. New Orleans (1-1) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in Las Vegas against the Raiders on Monday as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers’ offense is clicking on all cylinders as they have scored a whopping 85 points in their first two games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers may be playing behind the best offensive line in his career this season. Not only has he suffered just one sack this season but the Green Bay running game is averaging 208 rushing YPG on 6.2 yards-per-carry. The Packers have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at least 10 points. Green Bay generated 488 total yards against the Lions — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 40 yards in their last game. The Packers outrushed Detroit by 170 net yards on Sunday — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after outrushing their last opponent by at least 150 yards. Now Green Bay goes back on the road where they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total. New Orleans has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Saints gained 424 yards in the losing effort — and they have played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Now New Orleans returns home where the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Saints also allowed 377 yards last week to the Raiders — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. And in their last 14 games in September, New Orleans has played 10 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: While both these teams may be without important weapons in wide receivers Michael Thomas and Devante Adams, both offenses move the ball quite well without either player last week. These two teams have played 7 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (487) and the New Orleans Saints (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in Las Vegas against the Raiders on Monday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (2-0) has started the season unbeaten after defeating the Lions at home in Lambeau Field last week by a 42-21 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Sean Payton was livid with his team after they committed ten penalties accounting for 129 yards with five of those penalties accounting for first downs for the Raiders. The Saints are the most-penalized team in the league with 248 penalty yards after two games. Payton kept his team in Vegas overnight to discuss the mistakes his team has been making. Expect this team to come out on fire. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Drew Brees is getting plenty of criticism this week for not throwing the ball downfield. Is he losing arm strength? Yeah, probably — but that is probably an overrated quality (at least, Brett Favre and Phill Simms say so). Certainly Brees misses wide receiver Michael Thomas who will be out for this game with his ankle injury. But even without Thomas last week, Brees led an offense that averaged 7.44 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last contest. The problem for New Orleans besides the penalties — or, another result of the penalties that kept FIVE drives alive — was that they only had the ball for 23:42 minutes in that game. The Saints gained 424 yards on Monday — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. The short week should not be a problem as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing with six days or less of rest. And in their last 41 games against teams with a winning record, New Orleans is 27-13-1 ATS. Before we crown the Packers the Super Bowl Championship for scoring 85 points in their first two games, lets remember that they did this against an injured Detroit defense and a Minnesota defense that lost five starters from last year’s team. Remember, Green Bay was outgained last season by their opponents but made it to the NFC Championship Game because they were 9-1 in one-possession games. They were closer to an 8-8/9-7 team, in practice, that a 13-3 team. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers may be without Rodgers’ favorite target in Davante Adams after he injured his hamstring which kept him out of the second half last week against the Lions. Adams is going to try to play it looks like (and he is my fantasy line up tonight for Guinea Pig Nation) — but I am not optimistic. But Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Saints. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (485) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (486). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their miracle 40-39 victory over the Falcons in Atlanta last Sunday where they were 3-point favorites. Seattle (2-0) comes off a 35-30 victory at home over New England last Sunday night as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas should be emboldened from their late rally which saw them score 16 points in under five minutes to play in that game. The Cowboys did dominate Atlanta by generating 570 yards while outgaining them by +190 net yards. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. And while the Cowboys trailed by a 29-10 score at halftime, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 road games after trailing by at least two touchdowns in their also game. And Dallas has also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games after allowing at least 35 points in their last contest. Seattle comes off an emotional win on national prime-time television against the Patriots. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and there will not be fans in the stand for this game given COVID-10 precautions. The Seahawks are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents. While Russell Wilson is getting all the headlines, Seattle’s defense is a growing problem. New England outgained them last Sunday by a 464 to 429 margin. The lack of a credible pass rush is allowing opposing quarterbacks to tee-off against the Seahawks’ secondary. Seattle is last in the NFL by allowing 416 passing YPG — and the 485 total YPG they are allowing is also last in the league. Pay Dak his $$$! Prescott completed 33 of 47 passes for 450 yards in orchestrating the Cowboys’ comeback last week — and that offense was at its most effective when it was running through him rather than Ezekiel Elliott.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home when favored. The Cowboys are dangerous underdogs who have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games — and this includes them covering the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Dallas-Seattle Fox-TV Special with the Dallas Cowboys (485) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their heartbreaking 35-30 loss at Seattle last Sunday night as a 4.5-point underdog where they failed to convert on the goal-line on the final play of the game that would have given them the victory. Las Vegas (2-0) comes off a triumphant 34-24 upset victory at home on Monday Night Football against New Orleans as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders earned an emotional win in their debut in their new Allegiant Stadium (down the road from the Hollywood Sports office) — but they now find themselves in a letdown situation after their perfect 2-0 start to the season. On a short week, Las Vegas has to make their second trip out east in three weeks to play at a 1 PM ET start — during a pandemic! — with the old 10 AM PT body clock problem. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home. The Raiders did generate 377 yards of offense against the Saints defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the bigger concern is that they were outgained by -47 net yards with New Orleans generating 424 yards despite only having the football for less than 24 minutes in that game. The Saints also gifted the Raiders 129 yards from their ten penalties with five of them directly producing first downs. New Orleans averaged a whopping 7.44 Yards-Per-Play on Monday. They are allowing 6.54 YPP after two games. They are also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. New England should respond with a strong effort as they are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games after a straight-up loss in the Bill Belichick era. The Patriots’ offense looks fantastic under the direction of (a completely healthy again) Cam Newton. After rushing the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns in the opening week, he torched the Seahawks for 397 passing yards by completing 30 of 44 passes — and he added another 44 yards on the ground with two more rushing scores. These are all great signs for Belichick whose teams have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after scoring at least 30 points. New England outgained Seattle by a 464-429 margin despite losing on the scoreboard. The Patriots are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. New England needs to tighten things up on defense — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Belichick is the best in the business in having his defense take away the opposing offenses’ best weapon — so that means plenty of attention Raiders’ tight end Darren Waller who caught 12 passes for 103 yards on Monday. Las Vegas receiving corps drops off after Waller and first-round draft pick Henry Ruggs III is still dealing with an injury. The Patriots return home where they are a decisive 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have been a great early story to the season — but they remain a team that averaged only 15 PPG over their final seven games while never topping 24 points so I am not completely sold that this is now a 30 PPG scoring attack despite scoring 68 points so far this season. This is also a team that got blown out by a 42-21 score to Tennessee, a 40-9 score at Kansas City, and a 34-3 score in New York to the Jets (!) in the final six weeks of the season. 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (1-1) enters this game coming off a 33-30 loss at Tennessee as a 7-point underdog. Miami (0-2) is winless in their first two games of the season after their 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss to a divisional rival. Additionally, Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Quarterback Gardner Minshew comes off a big game where he completed 30 of 45 passes for 339 yards — but the Jags have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where they passed for at least 300 yards. Minshew may be without one of his top weapons in wide receiver D.J. Chark who is questionable with a chest injury. Now Jacksonville returns home where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored. Miami needs to tighten things up on defense after allowing 524 total yards last week against the Bills. But the Dolphins have still played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in September. Additionally, the Under is 8-2-1 in Miami’s last 11 appearances on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have played 26 of their last 36 games on the road Under the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. Jacksonville has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total with the number installed in the 42.5 to 49 point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-2) is winless in their first two games of the season after their 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-1) comes off a 33-30 loss at Tennessee as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: There sure is a lot of love all of the sudden for this Jaguars’ team that was considered to be “tankin’ for Trevor” to get the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence as their franchise quarterback. But second-year QB Gardner Minshew is completing 75.4% of his passes with six touchdown passes and undrafted rookie running back James Robinson has emerged with 164 rushing yards to make their supporters understand why they released Leonard Fournette in training camp. Yet Jacksonville has still failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an AFC South rival. And while Minshew threw for 339 yards against the Titans defense, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Keep in mind that it was Minshew’s two interceptions on Sunday that helped the Titans overcome being outgained by a 480 to 354 yardage margin to the Jaguars. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 43 of their last 69 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 100 yards. Minshew may be without one of his top targets in wide receiver D.J. Chark who is listed as questionable with a chest injury. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home game when favored. And not only have the Jaguars failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after surrendering at least 30 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and the have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two straight contests to AFC East rivals. In head coach Brian Flores I trust to get this team focused on a short week. Remember, this team was supposedly “tankin’ for Tua” last year before they rallied from an 0-7 start to the season by then winning five of their last nine games. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is inconsistent but it was the good version of him on Sunday as he completed 31 of 47 passes against an outstanding Bills defense for 328 passing yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Getting wide receiver DeVante Parker healthy and back on the field is a big help for Fitzmagic — Parker has 78 catches for 1227 receiving yards with 10 touchdown passes in his last sixteen games. The Dolphins generated 410 yards of offense last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: There is inherent value with the underdog in this one — and the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as the dog. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-0) comes off a 34-30 win at Carolina where they were 3-point favorites. New Orleans (1-0) enters this game coming off a 34-23 win at home to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is one of the rare instances in professional sports where the home field advantage will be at it’s most diminished. Not only will there be no crowd support tonight given COVID-19 restrictions but head coach Jon Gruden’s team lacks a familiarity and comfort level edge (which I think is under-appreciated) since will be their very first game played at Allegiant Stadium. I have studied home advantage closely — especially over the summer when handicapping European soccer that began the crowd-free experiences in the globe’s Project Restart. Psychologists do make an argument that there is an edge for home teams given their sense of territoriality. It is a theory — and impossible to quantity since it is difficult to accurately measure this motivation. This Raiders team will certainly want to establish that their new “Death Star” is their “turf.” Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home as an underdog — and while the “home” part is not a strong lagging indicator for this game, it is telling that they have performed better when their opponent lacks a home crowd and familiarity advantage. And while the Raiders did allow 260 passing yards last week to the Panthers, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And in their last 5 games on Monday Night Football, Las Vegas (as the Oakland Raiders) are 4-1-1 ATS. The final score for the Saints was a bit deceiving with one of their touchdowns being score from a 36-yard interception. New Orleans had a +3 net turnover margin — but they managed to generate only 271 yards of offense. This team has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Saints averaged just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play against the Buccaneers which was the 2nd lowest average of all teams in Week One. Quarterback Drew Brees completed just 18 of his 30 passes for only 160 yards. His adjusted completion percentage was just 24th best in the league last week after missing a handful of open receivers. Maybe it was just one bad week without the benefit of the preseason — or maybe Father Time is beginning to catch up with the 41-year old. Brees will not have the benefit of his favorite target in Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. The Saints did add wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason — and I expect them to use running back Alvin Kamara as a slot receiver in passing downs — but this is an offensive not at full strength without their best weapon in the passing attack. Thomas caught a whopping 149 catches last year for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win over an NFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. The Saints were outgained in that contest against the Buccaneers by -41 yards last week. Tampa Bay was 2nd in the league last year with +15 net turnovers — but what happens to this team if they do not win the turnover battle?

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the first two weeks of the new season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in Week Two of the season under head coach Sean Payton. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Las Vegas Raiders (290) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (289). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-0) enters this game coming off a 34-23 win at home to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Las Vegas (1-0) comes off a 34-30 win at Carolina where they were 3-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The final score for the Saints was a bit deceiving with one of their touchdowns being score from a 36-yard interception. New Orleans had a +3 net turnover margin — but they managed to generate only 271 yards of offense. The Saints averaged just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play against the Buccaneers which was the 2nd lowest average of all teams in Week One. Quarterback Drew Brees completed just 18 of his 30 passes for only 160 yards. His adjusted completion percentage was just 24th best in the league last week after missing a handful of open receivers. Maybe it was just one bad week without the benefit of preseason — or maybe Father Time is beginning to catch up with the 41-year old. Brees will not have the benefit of his favorite target in Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. The Saints did add wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason — and I expect them to use running back Alvin Kamara as a slot receiver in passing downs — but this is an offensive not at full strength without their best weapon in the passing attack. Thomas caught a whopping 149 catches last year for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. As it is, New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win over an NFC South rival. Additionally, the Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over the Total. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a favorite of no more than 7 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the total set at 45.5 or higher. And in their last 5 second games to a new season, the Saints have played 4 of these games Under the Total. The Under is 10-4-1 in Las Vegas’ last 15 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined goals were scored. Las Vegas did not score more than 24 points in each of their final games last season — and they averaged just 15 PPG over that stretch. QB Derek Carr lacked a credible deep threat all season — that was supposed to be the role Antonio Brown would have assumed. The team drafted Alabama speedster Henry Ruggs with their 1st round pick to address this need — and he was targeted five times with three catches for 55 yards in the first half. Ruggs is listed as questionable to play but he will take the field tonight — however, it is unclear how effective he will be as he nurses the knee injury that kept home out of the second half last week. Las Vegas will rely on running back Josh Jacobs for this game — but the Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in forty-four straight games. The Raiders did allow 260 passing yards last week — but the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas had played their last four appearances representing Oakland Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing in the first two weeks of the season including playing four of five Unders as the coach of the Raiders. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). Best of luck for  us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (287) and the Seattle Seahawks (288). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 21-11 win over Miami as a 7-point favorite. Seattle (1-0) also won their debut to the 2020 season with their 38-25 victory over Atlanta where they closed as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in September after last week’s game. don’t sleep on the New England defense despite losing a handful of players who opted-out this season. The Patriots’ secondary remains elite led by cornerback Stephon Gilmour. The front-seven is a work-in-progress which is why controlling possession is so important. New England limited the Dolphins to just 169 yards of offense last week while averaging a mere 4.6 Yards-Per-Play — and they forced three turnovers. Since the start of 2019, the Patriots lead the NFL in these defensive categories still: allowing 13.9 PPG; allowing only 275.5 total YPG; 28 interceptions; opponent Passer Rating of 61.7. New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. The Patriots also limited Miami to just 87 rushing yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. The new-look Cam Newton run offense was clicking on all cylinders last week as they generated 357 total yards of offense on the strength of 202 rushing yards on 42 rushing attempts. The analytics folks tend to dismiss time of possession — perhaps that is one of the reasons they tend to replicate coin flips when making ATS prognostications? I assign plenty of value to the Patriots’ controlling the clock for 34:49 minutes last week. Not only does that keep the opposing offense off the field, but it keeps your own defense relatively fresh with one or two fewer defensive possessions they have to play in the game. That makes a big deal when coaching-up younger players — and that is what New England needs with their make-shift front seven. The Patriots have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. New England has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on the road. Seattle has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in September even after last week’s high-scoring game — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit win. The Seahawks have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they allowed 434 passing yards to the Falcons last week, they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: While New England seems committed to their ground game, don’t be surprised if Seattle avoids the outstanding Patriots’ secondary by getting back to their rushing attack to take advantage of the suspect New England front seven. Expect this to be a quick game with the running clock with what should see perhaps sixty rushing attempts between both teams. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (287) and the Seattle Seahawks (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 21-11 win over Miami as a 7-point favorite. Seattle (1-0) also won their debut to the 2020 season with their 38-25 victory over Atlanta where they closed as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England should build off their momentum from last week as they are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a point spread win. The new-look Cam Newton run offense was clicking on all cylinders last week as they generated 357 total yards of offense on the strength of 202 rushing yards on 42 rushing attempts. The analytics folks tend to dismiss time of possession — perhaps that is one of the reasons they tend to replicate coin flips when making ATS prognostications? I assign plenty of value to the Patriots’ controlling the clock for 34:49 minutes last week. Not only does that keep the opposing offense off the field, but it keeps your own defense relatively fresh with one or two fewer defensive possessions they have to play in the game. That makes a big deal when coaching-up younger players. It is telling that New England is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are also an impressive 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Cam Newton looked like a young man fully-healthy again with the mental reset of playing in a new environment. Don’t underestimate how much injuries have slowed him down since his Super Bowl run with Carolina a few years ago. Newton was an efficient 15 of 19 for 155 yards while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt last week. He also ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns. When he is healthy, he is simply money in short-yardage situations. And don’t sleep on the New England defense despite losing a handful of players who opted-out this season. The Patriots’ secondary remains elite led by cornerback Stephon Gilmour. The front-seven is a work-in-progress which is why controlling possession is so important. New England limited the Dolphins to just 169 yards of offense last week while averaging a mere 4.6 Yards-Per-Play — and they forced three turnovers. Since the start of 2019, the Patriots lead the NFL in these defensive categories still: allowing 13.9 PPG; allowing only 275.5 total YPG; 28 interceptions; opponent Passer Rating of 61.7. New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. It is not often that Belichick-coached teams are underdogs — and New England is 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 games when getting the points. Seattle defeated the (now 0-2) Falcons last week despite being outgained by -123 net yards in that game. The Seahawks surrendered a troubling 506 yards to Atlanta in that game. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win. The defense improved significantly with the acquisition of Jamal Adams — but this team remains suspect with both their offensive and defensive lines. The Seahawks are just 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has the reputation for having a strong home-field advantage — but they will be without their “twelfth man advantage” with no fans in the crowd raising the decibel levels. As it is, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 21-11 loss at New England as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (1-0) comes off a 27-17 win at home against the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami struggled to generate offense against the tough Patriots defense — they managed only 169 yards of offense last week. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled with three interceptions last week. But Fitzmagic has a nice track record when facing the Bills. In his last four games against Buffalo, Fitzpatrick is averaging 297.3 passing YPG while completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdown passes and just one interception while posting a Passer Rating of 100.1. Head coach Brian Flores usually gets every ounce of talent from his roster — and he should have his team play hard this afternoon. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. Miami has also been a dangerous underdog under Flores as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as the underdog. Additionally, the Dolphins should have a home edge with the Bills traveling to muggy South Beach. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. The Bills have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 30 games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. Buffalo has sky-high expectations this season with New England perhaps taking a step back in the post-Tom Brady era. But the Bills are loaded with injuries — especially at linebacker with starters Matt Milano and stud Tremaine Edmunds out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has won the last three meetings between these two teams after sweeping both games last year. The Bills won in South Beach in the most recent encounter on November 17th by a 37-20 score as a 7-point favorite. Flores probably had Buffalo as his number one work priority in the offseason — and in Flores I trust. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (101). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (0-1) got shellacked in Baltimore against the Ravens by a 38-6 score as a 7-point underdog. Cincinnati (0-1) began the Joe Burrow era on Sunday with a disappointing 16-13 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: It is already a gut-check moment for this Cleveland team who cannot afford to start the season 0-2 with two losses against divisional rivals. This team is ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football (especially on defense) — but they did get some good news that wide receiver Jarvis Landry will likely be able to play tonight. This team is loaded with talent so the injuries are not nearly as devastating as what the Bengals are also facing. The formula for success should be to run the football with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt against a suspect Cincinnati defense to set up the play-action pass to Landry and Odell Beckham. Falling behind by a 24-6 score by halftime took Cleveland out of what they want to accomplish on offense with their running game. Yet Chubb and Hunt were the only running backs in Week One to average over 3.0 Yards-After-Contact (Chubb: 3.5 Yards-After-Contact average; Hunt: 3.3 Yards-After-Contact average) — so the potential is there for them to dominate this Bengals defense. If and when the Browns take the lead, they will get the Bengals to play from behind which will afford Myles Garrett and company to expose a weak and depleted offensive line to attack a rookie quarterback playing on a short week. That recipe is easier to execute than asking a new head coach Kevin Stefanski to have his team ready to play a 14-win Baltimore team with new schemes and a new coaching staff without the benefit of preseason games in the opening week of the season. Cleveland should respond with a better effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least four touchdowns to an AFC North rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Additionally, the Browns are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home as a favorite. Cincinnati only generated 295 yards of offense last week against the Chargers’ defense. Burrow completed 23 of 36 passes for 193 yards with no touchdown passes and an interception — but he was not given much time. Burrow averaged only 2.21 seconds per throw in his 36 attempts which is not much time for a rookie quarterback. The Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL — and that unit will be without right guard Xavier Su’a-Filo who is out with an ankle injury. Now the rookie quarterback is challenged with learning from his mistakes on Sunday while preparing for the Browns defense on a short week. Rookie quarterbacks have a dismal record in the first half of the season when playing on a short week for Thursday Night Football. These rookie QBs have only won once in seven starts while throwing ten interceptions to just one touchdown. Cincinnati is also banged up on defense with defensive tackles Geno Atkins and Mike Daniels out tonight and starting cornerback Trae Waynes already on injured reserve. Moving forward, the Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after playing a low-scoring game that finished Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing on Thursday Night. The Browns will play much better tonight simply by substituting out a loaded Ravens team for this Bengals group. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (0-0) takes the field again after a 9-7 campaign that ended by losing at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Denver (0-0) comes off a 7-9 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans will have revenge on their mind after getting shutout in Denver back on October 13th by a 16-0 score. That was the final straw for head coach Mike Vrabel who benched starting quarterback Marcus Mariota in that game. Ryan Tannehill came on to complete 13 of 16 passes in relief with that effort being enough to earn him the starting job that he then ran away with for the rest of the season. Tennessee won nine of their last thirteen games while leading the team one win away from the Super Bowl. Tannehill completed 67.9% of his passes while throwing 27 touchdown passes to just six interceptions. Tannehill opened up the vertical threats for this team as he completed 9.0 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. But what defined success for Tannehill was his ability to operate in play-action. Tannehill sells the fake hand-off with the Titans using the play-action decoy to Derrick Henry (and the other running backs) 77.1% of the time with Tannehill under center. Tannehill generated a Passer Rating of 140.6 in the playoffs in play-action which was the best of all quarterbacks in the postseason. He will face a depleted Broncos’ pass rush that will be without Von Miller who went on IR with an ankle injury. Bradley Chubb will be on a pitch count as well with him dealing with an injured ACL. The lack of a pass rush will likely have Tannehill licking his chops. He completed 72.9% of his passes with a clean pocket with 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions while averaging 9.63 YPA — and his 122.6 Passer Rating from a clean pocket led the NFL last season. Tennessee should come out very motivated to avenge being shutout last year — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. This team averaged 24.1 PPG last season — and they also averaged 24.9 PPG on the road last season along with posting a 350.8 total YPG mark. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying the points. Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total in September — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. The Broncos are excited about the potential of their offense this season in the second season of quarterback Drew Lock. The former Missouri Tiger won four of his five starts to end the season last year. The organization hired Pat Shurmer to be the offensive coordinator after he became available when he was let go as the New York Giants’ head coach. The team also surrounded Lock with more weapons by signing running back Melvin Gordon from the Chargers and drafting Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. The Broncos need to improve their 18.8 PPG scoring average at home last season. Denver held their guests to just 17.9 PPG but that is a number that looks destined for regression given the attrition that the unit has endured. Not only is Miller out but they also lost defensive back Chris Harris, Jr. to a middling unit in production as they were just 14th against the pass and 15th against the run. Frankly, their defensive scoring average was somewhat the product of a defensive head coach in Vic Fangio who ran the ball to burn time off the clock to shorten the game and rest his defense. If and when the Broncos fall behind in this game, then Denver will have to abandon the run game.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 4 straight games Over the Total on Monday Night Football. Expect Tannehill to have a good game which will force the Broncos to lean on Lock to win this game — and that is a recipe for an Over with the Total set in the low-40s. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-0) comes off an 8-8 season last year. New York (0-0) looks to build off a 4-12 campaign last season.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers are optimistic that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will be rejuvenated coming off elbow surgery after an injury that caused him to miss fourteen games last year. Fingers are crossed for the 38-year old but, like with Tom Brady yesterday, perhaps he is another quarterback who would have benefitted from the five to eight offensive series that a few preseason games would have provided him. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in September. Head coach Mike Tomlin is likely to continue to lean on his outstanding defense especially when playing away from Heinz Field. The Steelers have played 39 of their last 52 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 22 of their last 27 road games Under the Total as the favorite. Pittsburgh was 5th in the league last year by allowing just 18.9 PPG — and they ranked 3rd best in the NFL by allowing only 194.6 passing YPG. The Steelers dialed-up 54 sacks last season while forcing 38 takeaways which is not good news for the second-year quarterback they will be facing. Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the number set in 42.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing seven straight Unders when playing on the road with the Total set in that range. New York is hopeful that Daniel Jones takes the next step at quarterback after his rookie campaign. His backers are encouraged by the three four-touchdown passing games he produced in the second half of the season. But remember that those contests were against Detroit, the NY Jets, and Washington with defenses that are far cries than what he will face tonight. He will be operating under a new system under rookie head coach Joe Judge who hired Jason Garrett as his offensive coordinator. Jones could use a full preseason to get comfortable with the Garrett game plan. The Giants also have a reshuffled offensive line after Nate Solder opted-out from playing this year. New York drafted Andrew Thomas in the first round while adding center Nick Gates and right tackle Cam Fleming — but there will be growing pains for this unit as they develop cohesion together. The offensive game plan will likely be to rely on star running back Saquon Barkley — but he averaged just 55.7 rushing YPG last year against top-ten defenses as compared to his 90.5 rushing YPG average against the rest of the NFL.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season. While those four games were under the Pat Shurmer regime, Judge comes from New England so I do not expect him to suddenly roll out the Air Raid offense in this situation. Expect the Giants to try to run the ball with Barkley as long as they can stay competitive in this game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (477) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (478). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) begins the new era of head coach Mike McCarthy tonight as he replaces Jason Garrett after his ten-year tenure ended with the Cowboys’ 8-8 finish last season. Los Angeles (0-0) looks to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason last year despite their 9-7 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): I was leaning to taking Dallas in this game before conducting my deep dive — and I am more convinced after that survey while being pleasantly surprised that the steam has been on the Rams to make them a small favorite in many spots. I think the oddsmakers were right to install Dallas as the initial favorite. They deserved better last season. They outscored their opponents by +7.0 PPG while outgaining them by +104.5 net YPG. Those are numbers that usually equate with teams that finish in the 11-5 range. What happened? The Cowboys endured five net close losses in their six games decided by one possession. That is the ultimate reason why Garrett is gone a former Super Bowl-winning head coach is now in charge. McCarthy is not enlisted to win more close games but to also oversee his team pulling away in games they are winning so they do not get decided by one or two bad breaks. Dallas was a very good road team last year who outgained their opponents by +65.8 YPG away from home. This consistency also made Dallas a very live dog. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles hosts this game but does has only the thinnest of home-field advantages. Without fans, these home teams lack the energy that a crowd can offer. In the NFL, that does play more of a role than the other sports taking place right now because loud stadiums disrupt the quarterback’s ability to communicate at the line of scrimmage. The noise the NFL is allowing home teams to pipe into their stadium is so minimal it has little effect. Prescott will be able to audible verbally at the line of scrimmage tonight without any issues. But the Rams are also making their debut in their new SoFi Stadium — so they do not even get the underrated advantage of familiarity when playing at home. Head coach Sean McVay’s team has had two practices in their new facility — big deal.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles was actually outgained and outscored when playing at home last year — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Would the Rams be favored if this game was being played on a neutral field? I don’t think so — and this is essentially what SoFi Stadium is for McVay’s team without cheering fans in the stadium nor a sense of familiarity or comfort in the confines. Dallas crushed LA last December 15th by a 44-21 score. While I do not expect another 23-point win, are the changes between these two teams that dramatic? I think this Cowboys team is better with McCarthy leading the way. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (477) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Rams (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) begins the new era of head coach Mike McCarthy tonight as he replaces Jason Garrett after his ten-year tenure ended with the Cowboys’ 8-8 finish last season. Los Angeles (0-0) looks to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason last year despite their 9-7 record.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: McCarthy kept Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator while deferring to him to continue to call plays for quarterback Dak Prescott. But the stout offensive line that Prescott has enjoyed over the years is not as strong. Five-time Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick returned in the offseason while their elite right tackle, La’El Collins, is beginning the year on the IR with a hip injury. The depth of the Cowboys will now be tested with Joe Looney taking over at center after playing in just five snaps last season while the poorly graded Cameron Erving becomes their best option at right tackle. Red zone offense was a problem for the Dallas offense when they were playing on the road last season. They averaged 388.4 total YPG away from home but that only translated into 22.1 PPG. The Cowboys’ offense may also struggle without the benefit of the preseason to implement the new principles that McCarthy wants to bring to the offense. As it is, Dallas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog (which they now are after the line movement earlier in the day) — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total when the underdog. Dallas does have a new defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan — and I think the veteran has a lot to offer the Cowboys. Dallas only allowed 20.4 PPG on the road last year along with just 322.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Rams have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored — and this includes them playing four of their last five games Under the Total when favored at home. The LA defense improved significantly midseason after the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville. For the season, the Rams allowed only 339.6 total YPG. I have heard some pundits comment about how tough head coach Sean McVay is early in the season after the benefit of the offseason to devise new plays and offensive strategies. Yet Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 51 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season including playing three of their last four opening two games Under the Total in the last two seasons. The Rams have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. LA will have the benefit of surprise on defense with new defensive coordinator Joe Staley calling the defense — and Dallas does not have the benefit of even vanilla game-tape from exhibition games to get a sense of what changes he will implement.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 15th where the Cowboys pulled a 44-21 upset win as a 1-point underdog with the final score flying over the 48 point total. Dallas ran the ball 36 times for 248 yards and three touchdowns — but their two highest-graded offensive linemen from that game were Fredericks and Collins who will not be on the field tonight. The Cowboys will likely stick with their commitment to the run with Ezekiel Elliott but expect this rematch to be a much lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (476) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (475). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (0-0) returns to the field again after losing in overtime in the NFC Divisional Playoffs to Minnesota last year by a 26-20 score. Tampa Bay (0-0) comes in with big expectations after signing Tom Brady in the offseason to upgrade their team that finished 7-9 last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers are a trendy Super Bowl pick with Brady joining a team loaded with offensive talent along with an underrated defense. But I suspect that it will take some time for this team to begin to gel on offense. Tampa Bay could have used preseason games to help get Brady and his offense in synch against hostile competition. Brady had a tendency to start slow with the Patriots — they were just 4-4 ATS in their last eight games played in September. He may not have one of his best weapons available to him either with wide receiver Mike Evans listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. In theory, Brady improves this team because he will eliminate all the interceptions that Jameis Winston threw over the years. But on the other hand, the Buccaneers were 3rd in the NFL last year by scoring 28.6 PPG while averaging 397.3 total YPG — and there is no guarantee that this offense maintains that level of productivity under Brady who does not have as strong an arm as Winston. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC South opponents. The Buccaneers are also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog. New Orleans has a big edge in continuity with Drew Brees and the entire coaching staff returning to make one last push for another Super Bowl championship. The Saints have few weaknesses with all their units on both sides of the ball being at least considered above average — and they have an elite offensive line along with their special teams. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in the first half of the season. They also have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Brady inherits a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with the Saints. The continuity edge for New Orleans should help them exceed point spread expectations in this Week One showdown. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (476) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (451). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) kicks off the 2020-21 season at home after their 31-20 triumph in the Super Bowl over San Francisco. Houston (0-0) has the first crack at them with revenge on their minds after losing to them at Arrowhead Stadium by a 51-31 score. There will be fans in the stadium tonight with capacity capped around 22% given concerns social distancing protocols.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: If the importance of coaching staff will be even more significant after an offseason adapting to COVID-19 and the lack of preseason games, then assign a big advantage to Andy Reid and his assistants. Reid’s success coming off bye weeks have become legendary — but he usually also gets his team to outperform expectations early in the season. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games in September — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of their last five opening games to a new season. The Chiefs will also have the benefit of continuity with twenty of their twenty-two starters back from last year’s championship team along with the entire coaching staff. Kansas City is without their Super Bowl starting running back in Damien Williams who opted out due to COVID-19 concerns — but they addressed that issue by drafting LSU running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round. The rookie has been compared to pass-catching running backs like Darren Sproules — but assistant coach Kevin Faulk made the eye-popping comparison to Barry Sanders which would make this offense downright scary if even close to being accurate. The Kansas City defense did improve in the second half of the season under first-year defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo — they led the NFL after Week Ten by holding their opponents to just 11.5 PPG with Baltimore being the next stingiest by limiting teams to only 13.3 PPG during that span through the regular season. Spagnuolo runs a complicated system that takes time for defenses to master — so a big jump in competency for this unit now in his second season is likely. The Chiefs are led by safety Tyrann Mathieu who may very well have been the most valuable player on defense in the league last year. Kansas City will have the advantage of familiarity playing at home tonight where they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games. The Chiefs are also 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games when favored. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Texans’ big move in the offseason was trading wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for running back David Johnson. Houston has an interesting set of wide receivers that are probably underrated — but it will take for them to gel with quarterback Deshaun Watson. Brandin Cooks was brought in from the Rams but he is listed as questionable with a quad injury for this game. The absence of Hopkins in being Watson’s go-to receiver will have its biggest impact early in the season. And while I think head coach Bill O’Brien is too often a punching bag for pundits, a fair assessment would be that he may face bigger obstacles in getting his team ready to play this season. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening two weeks of the season. Furthermore, Houston’s 10-6 regular season record was deceptive of a team that was both outscored and outgained by their opponents during the regular season. The Texans survived +5 net close victories decided by one-scoring possession last year. They only held a lead for just over 37% of their games last year as well.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 appearances on Thursday Night Football. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-4) has won eight straight games with their 35-24 victory over Tennessee on January 19th in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 7.5-point favorite. San Francisco (15-3) joined them in the Super Bowl later that day with their 37-20 victory over Green Bay as an 8-point favorite. The Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Frankly, I began to consider Kansas City a team of destiny when they rallied from their 24-0 deficit to Houston to win that game by a 51-31 score in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. With New England losing to the Titans that weekend, it just looked like the seas were beginning to part for head coach Andy Reid to finally win his first Super Bowl after long being considered one of the dean’s of NFL coaches. Reid has led his teams to victory in twenty-one of their last twenty-four games after a bye week with his teams also posting a 19-9 ATS record after a bye week in his coaching career. After everything went as I expected in both Conference Championship Games, I was prepared to officially endorse the Chiefs in this game — but I decided to wait to watch the line movement for a few days while also clearing my head to help ensure I was not succumbing to confirmation bias. The best argument for the San Francisco side of the equation relates to the success of underdogs in the Super Bowl coming in with the better defense. So I looked at the Chiefs record against Top-Ten defenses (as decided by the weighted DVOA metric at Football Outsiders). Kansas City faced three top-seven defenses this season: at New England (#4th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Minnesota (#7th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Baltimore (#2nd in DVOA weighted defense). The Chiefs won all three games with the average score being 27.3-22.3. Furthermore, Kansas City averaged 408.7 YPG in those three games with 288 of those yards coming in the air at a 7.71 Yards-Per-Attempt clip — and those numbers compare pretty favorably to their 29.8 PPG, 383.4 total YPG and 283 passing YPG at a 7.9 YPA season average entering this game. The most telling game seems to be the Chiefs’ 33-28 win against the Ravens since the Baltimore team’s physical presence along with their emphasis on a power rushing attack is similar to the San Francisco formula for success. I then looked at how Kansas City performed against Top-Ten rushing attacks (as defined by DVOA). The Chiefs had five games against Top-Eight rushing offenses according to DVOA. I threw out the loss to Green Bay since that was one of the two games that Patrick Mahomes missed due to injury. Kansas City was 2-2 in those other four games as they defeated the Ravens while losing to Indianapolis and splitting two games with the Titans. The average score in those two games was 28.3 to 26.8 in favor of the Chiefs. And while they allowed 173.3 rushing YPG in those four contests with opposing rushers averaging 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry, that did not stop the Mahomes-led offense to average 440.3 total YPG (almost 60 YPG above their season average). With those past results, I am unpersuaded that the elite 49ers defense nor their ability to effectively run the football will significantly slow down Mahomes and this powerful KC offense. It is hard to then ignore that the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least two in a row by double-digits. Kansas City has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game including those last four situations. San Francisco is riding high after their easy win over the Packers where they raced out to a 24-0 halftime lead. But the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 35 of their last 54 road games after a victory by at least 14 points. Furthermore, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. The red flag regarding the outstanding 49ers’ defense is they have tended to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. In looking at their four games against NFC West rivals Seattle and Arizona with Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray along with their game against Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, San Francisco did win just three of those games with the average scoring being 26.2-23.8 (and while that is still a winning margin, it is -9.9 net PPG plummet from their +12.3 PPG net differential for the season). The Niners held the offenses in those five games to 318 YPG which is still very low — but it is also +39 YPG more than their season average. Those quarterbacks completed 67.5% of their 154 combined passes in those games while averaging 192.0 passing YPG which was +22.8 passing YPG above their season average. Perhaps most importantly for this game, the quarterbacks ran for a combined 284 yards in those five games on 43 carries for 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry average while adding 56.8 rushing YPG. What is critical about these rushing numbers is that they are more likely to occur on 3rd and 4th downs and/or in the Red Zone. Mahomes is usually frugal when deciding to run the football — but he did average 15.6 rushing YPG this season on 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. This is an area where he may take advantage of the Niners’ outstanding four-man rush. Mahomes will likely also pick on 49ers’ cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon who Pro Football Focus ranks as the 50th of the 95 cornerbacks who had at least 300 snaps this season. Witherspoon has wilted at times this season when his confidence gets shaken while struggling in the Red Zone — and this Chiefs’ offense is loaded with weapons that will preclude the Niners from hiding Witherspoon. The Niners did bench Witherspoon in the playoffs for undrafted free agent Emmanuel Moseley — but at 5’11 and 190-lbs, he is a matchup nightmare against the 6’5 and 260-lb Travis Kelce even if his player was an improvement over Witherspoon. Kansas City is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Once I concluded that the San Francisco defense is not likely to slow down Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense, the edge Kansas City has at quarterback will likely be the difference. Jimmy Garoppolo is a fine QB who has executed quite well on 3rd down and deserves tons of credit for outdueling Drew Brees in the Niners’ 48-46 win in New Orleans. But Garoppolo is still a bit inexperienced in big games when compared to Mahomes who was winning a coin flip away from winning the AFC Championship Game in overtime last year against the Patriots from reaching the Super Bowl. There are also some throws that Garoppolo struggles with as he continues to develop. While it doesn’t mean everything, it does something that head coach Kyle Shanahan asked Garoppolo to throw the ball only 14 times after his bad interception in the NFC Divisional Playoff round game against Minnesota. Frankly, probably every QB in the NFL right now is at a disadvantage to Mahomes. KC also has a decided edge in Special Teams in this game. With the point spread closer to pick ‘em than the hook, look for Superman Mahomes to fulfill what seems to be his destiny while finally codifying Reid in the pantheon of the elite head coaches in NFL history. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-3) joined them in the Super Bowl later that day with their 37-20 victory over Green Bay as an 8-point favorite. Kansas City (14-4) has won eight straight games with their 35-24 victory over Tennessee on January 19th in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 7.5-point favorite. The Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The adage is that matchups make prizefights — and I say that matchups also go a long way in assessing whether a game will go Over or Under the Total. Both these teams had Top-Eight scoring offenses and defenses in the regular season. I think it will be the offenses that have the edge for both teams in what should push into a higher scoring game. The Chiefs enter the Super Bowl averaging 283 passing YPG — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 230 passing YPG. Kansas City also allows their opponents to average 351.7 total YPG in their eighteen games this season — and San Francisco has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow at least 350 YPG. The weakness of this Chiefs defense is against the run — even after their seeming improvement over the last eight games of the season, Kansas City ranked 27th in the NFL over that span in Expected Points Allowed per rushing attempt faced. The Chiefs allowed 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry this season — and the Niners have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allowed their opponents to average 4.5 or more YPC. San Francisco has scored 64 combined points in their two playoff games — and they have then played 30 of their last 45 games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. The 49ers have also played 13 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total when playing with two weeks of rest and preparation. Kansas City has scored at least 26 points in four straight games — and they have played 6 straight games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight games. And while the Chiefs have scored 21 and 28 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 17 points in the first half in two straight contests. Kansas City has won their last five games all by at least 10 points — and they have then played 6 straight games Over the Total after winning at least two straight games by at least 10 points. They are averaging 29.8 PPG when accounting for their two playoff games — but the 49ers best that with their 30.2 PPG scoring average after their two playoff victories. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the Niners average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack, Kansas City has played 7 straight games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are winning at least 75% of their games. San Francisco has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The winner of this game likely scores at least 30 points with both teams likely score at least 24 points one way or another. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank (and to get my Super Bowl Props Betting Report for my top three prop bets, follow me on Twitter and contact me for this Report as a free courtesy: @FrankSawyer_HS ).

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (311) and the San Francisco 49ers (312). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (14-3) has won six straight games with their 28-23 win over Seattle last week as a 4.5-point favorite. San Francisco (14-3) has won three straight games after they dispatched of Minnesota last week by a 27-10 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a victory at home. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Green Bay has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after winning at least six straight games. The Packers surrendered 375 yards to the Seahawks in the victory — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay has a mediocre defense that has been protected by their commitment to running the football. The Packers rank 18th in the NFL by allowing 352.8 total YPG while the analytics used by Football Outsiders rank their defense 15th in the league in DVOA. Green Bay now goes on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. They also have played 5 straight games Over the Total in January. The Packers have seen an uptick in their productivity on offense as of late as they have scored 24.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging 386.3 total YPG. San Francisco has scored 29.0 PPG over their last three games which is right in line with their 29.9 PPG scoring average this season which is 2nd best in the league. The 49ers raise that mark to 31.8 PPG in their nine games at home this season. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total. They also have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. And in their last 10 games against teams from the NFC, the Over is 7-2-1 for the Niners.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the 49ers’ 37-8 victory over the Packers by a 37-8 score. Green Bay could not stop the San Francisco offense in that game with the Niners averaging 7.5 Yards-Per-Play. But Aaron Rodgers may have played his worst game of the season as eh managed only 104 passing yards with the Packers averaging a mere 2.8 YPP. Look for Green Bay’s offense to be much more effective in this rematch in what should be a higher scoring game. 10* NFL Green Bay-San Francisco Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-3) has won three straight games after they dispatched of Minnesota last week by a 27-10 score as a 7-point favorite. Green Bay (14-3) has won six straight games with their 28-23 win over Seattle last week as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three games in a row. This Green Bay team has been difficult to figure out when considering that they are being outgained this season. The Packers have seen ten of their opponents win the yardage battle against them which is a hard way to win fourteen of one’s seventeen games. The football analytics community is well behind other sports (most notably, basketball) in appreciating that, while winning or losing close games often is a function of luck (or, better phrased: coin flip situations that can go either way that then have a disproportionate impact on the outcome of the game), there are attributes that help teams win close games. Free throw proficiency helps teams win close games in basketball. Outstanding quarterback play helps teams win close games in football. Aaron Rodgers may have seen his productivity decline since 2016 — but he is still very good in crunch time (and he avoids negative plays like interceptions). So, having said all that regarding my appreciation for this Packers’ team, this is a bad matchup for them. San Francisco controls the clock on offense for 32:01 minutes per game — and Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who average at least 32 minutes per game on offense. The Niners are 2nd in the NFL by averaging 29.9 PPG — and the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the San Francisco defense holds their opponents to just 5.2 Passing Yards-Per-Attempt, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who do not allow more than 5.2 YPA in the passing game after eight games into the season. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The San Francisco defense flexed their muscles in that game by holding the Vikings to just 147 total yards. The 49ers have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last contest. And while their game last week finished well below the 44.5 point total, San Francisco has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Niners defense ranks 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 281.8 total YPG — and this unit has been fortified with the return of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford from injuries. The 49ers get to host this game in Levi Stadium where they are 7-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.2 PPG. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is looking to avenge a 37-8 loss at San Francisco back on November 24th. A concern with this Packers team is that they are soft on the offensive and defensive line — and the physical 49ers were able to expose that vulnerability. Maybe (probably). I am persuaded with Green Bay failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they surrendered at least 28 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-4) rallied from a 24-0 deficit last Sunday to crush Houston by a 51-31 score. Tennessee (11-7) comes off a 28-12 upset win at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I suspect that the Titans are due for a huge emotional letdown after pulling off two straight upset victories. Tennessee has been on the road for three straight weeks — and pulling off three “must-win” games away from home is a very difficult achievement. Asking this team to pull this feat on the road for a fourth consecutive week is simply a bridge too far. As it is, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tennessee has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after pulling off an upset win by at least 14 points on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least three straight games. The formula for success for this team is to run Derrick Henry against the suspect Chiefs run defense. However, that is a plan that will not work if Kansas City takes an early lead which I expect them to do on their home field. Even during their three-game winning streak, Tennessee has been outgained by -33.0 YPG. And in their ten games on the road, the Titans have been outgained by -2.3 net YPG despite their 7-3 record away from home. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Kansas City should build off their momentum from last week as they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Chiefs are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Kansas City generated 434 yards of offense against the Houston defense in that win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Chiefs defense did look vulnerable by allowing 442 yards to the Texans. However, Kansas City is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Chiefs get to host this game in Arrowhead Stadium where they have outscored their opponents by +6.6 PPG. They have also outscored their last three opponents by +17.7 PPG while putting up 36.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. The Chiefs average 281.1 passing YPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG. 20* NFL Tennessee-Kansas City CBS-TV Special with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (11-7) comes off a 28-12 upset win at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog. Kansas City (13-4) rallied from a 24-0 deficit last Sunday to crush Houston by a 51-31 score.

THE SITUATION: The Titans have won three straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Tennessee has not allowed more than 14 points in those three victories — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. The Titans defeating the Ravens last week despite surrounding 530 yards of offense. Tennessee allowed 6.02 Yards-Per-Play to Baltimore while giving up 345 passing yards. The Titans have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after giving up at least 6.0 YPP. Now the Titans go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Tennessee defense is perhaps not as good as advertised as they rank 21st in the NFL by allowing 359.5 total YPG. They also surrender 255.0 passing YPG which is 24th in the league — and that is not a good sign when facing this Chiefs offense led by Patrick Mahomes which is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG. Kansas City has won seven straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Chiefs generated 434 yards against the Texans last week — and they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in all seven of their victories on their hot streak — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games while covering those games as the favorite. The Chiefs host this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and thy have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Chiefs allow 350 YPG this season, the Titans have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against opponents who allow at least 350 YPG. Look for Kansas City to exceed the 29.4 PPG scoring average they manage when playing at home with Tennessee playing catch-up and scoring in the 20s. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (307) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (308). THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-5) snapped a two-game losing streak last week with their 17-9 upset win at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog. Green Bay (13-3) has won five straight games after they closed out the regular season with a 23-20 win at Detroit as a 13.5-point favorite back on December 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Even with all their injuries at running back and on the offensive line, Seattle generated 382 yards of offense against the solid Eagles defense that had been holding their visitors to just 273.6 YPG before that game. In Russell Wilson, we trust. He completed 18 of 30 passes for 325 yards with a touchdown while adding another 45 yards on the ground. Wilson did not throw an interception in that game either — and his mere 5 interceptions this season on 516 passes for a microscopic 1% interception rate will likely play a big role in this game. How did the Packers win 13 games despite getting outgained in yardage this season? One of the reasons is certainly their +12 net turnover margin — but they are unlikely (don’t jinx it, Sawyer) to enjoys a turnover advantage against this Seahawks’ team that emphasizes minimizing negative risk under head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after gaining at least 300 passing yards in their last game. Seattle is a dangerous underdog given the high level coaching of Carroll and the playmaking of Wilson with that combination leading to an incredible 11-2 mark in one-scoring games (something I do not think is merely a fluke since it is precisely Carroll’s formula for success this season with a somewhat limited roster). The Seahawks is 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Furthermore, Wilson has led his teams at Seattle to a 26-13-2 ATS mark an underdog in his career which includes covering the point spread in ten of these last twelve situations as the dog. Wilson has also seen his team cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games with seven outright upset victories as an underdog getting at least 4 points. The Seahawks are road warriors this season with an 8-1 record away from home while outscoring their home hosts by +4.3 PPG due to their defense allowing just 19.8 PPG. Seattle is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road — and they are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win on the road. The Packers return home to Lambeau Field after playing their last two games on the road — but not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after playing a game on the road, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games on the road. And while Green Bay has covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Packers were a bit more fortunate to pullout all eight of their games decided by one scoring possession. I do give credit to Aaron Rodgers for that success — the football analytics community is a few laps behind the basketball community in beginning to appreciate that winning close games is not purely an issue of luck. But avoiding bad luck in winning one-possession games is at least somewhat a result of good fortunes. The Pythagorean-calculated win total for Green Bay drops to 9.8 wins. Additionally, the Packers have only defeated one team with a quarterback that led his team to the playoffs — Kirk Cousins. Green Bay defeated Kansas City when Matt Moore was playing for an injured Deshaun Watson while losing by a 34-27 score to Philadelphia and getting blown out by a 37-8 score to San Francisco.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers game failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog. 10* NFL Seattle-Green Bay Fox-TV Special with the Seattle Seahawks (307) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (307) and the Green Bay Packers (308). THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-5) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 17-9 victory at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog. Green Bay (13-3) takes the field again on a five-game winning streak after their 23-20 win at Detroit back on December 29th as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Of course, the outcome of their game last week changes dramatically if Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz does not get concussed by Jadeveon Clowney early in that contest. Wentz threw only four passes for 3 yards before that late hit before giving way to the game but overmatched Josh McCown who began the season coaching high school football. This Seattle defense is 26th in the NFL by allowing 381.6 total YPG. The Seahawks stay on the road for this game where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total. Seattle has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Over is 7-2-1 in the Seahawks’ last 10 games as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win on the road by a field goal or less. They have also played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total after winning five games in a row. The Packers went into the locker room trailing by a 17-3 score — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 3 points in the first half in their last game. They did end up gaining 432 yards in that game with Aaron Rodgers completing 27 of 55 passes for 323 yards. Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after passing for at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after attempting at least 50 passes in their last contest. The Under may be tempting for many bettors with the Packers having played four straight Unders. But Green Bay has played a decisive 52 of their last 83 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Unders.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. The Seahawks have seen the Over go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. A final word on the weather: the temperature will be in the mid-20s with snow possible in the second half of the game. These are two cold weather teams — with the Total just in the mid-20s, I don’t think the weather changes this game going over the number. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (307) and the Green Bay Packers (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 22-19 win over Buffalo in overtime last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Kansas City (12-4) ended the regular season winning six straight games with their 31-21 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Houston generated 360 yards of offense against the Bills’ defense last week — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. But the Texans also surrendered 425 yards in that contest — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last contest. Houston’s defense is below average as they allow 388.3 total YPG which is 28th in the league — and they have surrendered 442.3 total YPG over their last three contests. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they are allowing 410.2 total YPG. The Texans have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing two straight games at home.  Kansas City has won its last three games by at least 10 points with them being favored in all three contests. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row by double-digits — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread as the favorite in at least three straight contests. Kansas City got their ground game going against the Chargers by rushing for 162 yards — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not had as spectacular a fantasy season this year — but he still leads a potent offense that is 5th in the NFL by scoring 28.2 PPG while leading a passing attack that is also 5th in the league by averaging 281.5 passing YPG (despite their dynamic wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, missing some games). The Chiefs are 5th in the NFL by averaging 28.2 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 PPG — and Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +6.0 PPG. Kansas City has played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Houston-Kansas City CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-4) ended the regular season winning six straight games with their 31-21 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 10-point favorite. Houston (11-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 22-19 win over Buffalo in overtime last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They should build off the momentum of their six-game winning streak as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. And in their last 7 games after a home win against an AFC West foe, Kansas City has covered the point spread 6 times. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not had as spectacular a fantasy season this year — but he still leads a potent offense that is 5th in the NFL by scoring 28.2 PPG while leading a passing attack that is also 5th in the league by averaging 281.5 passing YPG (despite their dynamic wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, missing some games). But the impressive aspect of this Chiefs’ team is the bump in the play of defensive coordinator’s Steve Spagnuolo unit in the second year in his system which has become commonplace after similar results occurred at his previous spots (including with a Super Bowl-winning NY Giants team). Kansas City has held its last six opponents to just 11.5 PPG — and their last three opponents have scored only 9.0 PPG while averaging just 283.7 total YPG. The Chiefs ended the season 8th in the NFL in opponent’s Expected Points Added per play and 7th in opponent’s EPA on pass plays. Kansas City now retains big situational advantages getting an extra week to rest and prepare while staying at home for three weeks. Head coach Andy Ryan has seen his teams cover the point spread in 18 of their 27 games coming off a bye week in his career. The Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home. And in their last 10 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Houston may be due for a letdown as they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Frankly, this is a team that has been carried by Deshaun Watson who is frequently asked to overcome a shaky defense and a head coach in Bill O’Brien who does not always put his team in the best position to succeed given his tactical decisions. The Texans are being outscored this season by -0.5 PPG. They are also being outgained by -26.3 YPG — and this gets worse on the road where they have been outgained by -48.0 net YPG when playing on the road. Houston’s defense is below average as they allow 388.3 total YPG which is 28th in the league — and they have surrendered 442.3 total YPG over their last three contests. The Texans have spent much of the season trailing in their games which is very strange for a team that won eleven games in the regular season. And this Houston team has been outscored by a 34-0 score in the first half of their last two playoff games under O’Brien’s command after going into halftime last week at home by a 13-0 score to the Bills. Mahomes will punish this Texans team if they continue to be that anemic in the first half of this one. Now after playing their last two games at home, Houston goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the October 13th encounter between these two teams in Arrowhead Stadium as well where the Texans pulled off a 31-24 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss decided by a touchdown or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with same-season revenge from an upset loss. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (14-2) has won twelve games in a row with their 28-10 upset win at Pittsburgh to end the regular season as a 2-point underdog back on December 29th. Tennessee (10-7) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset victory at New England as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: It was a very emotional victory for head Mike Vrabel who led his Titans team into Foxboro to defeat his former team where he starred as a player. They survived that game despite managing only 272 yards of offense while being outgained by -35 net yards — and remember that the score looks more decisive only because of their pick-six interception return for a touchdown that ended the game. If the Patriots convert a touchdown late in the first half when they were on the 1-yard line rather than settle for a field goal, then the complexion of that game probably changes. Don’t be surprised if this team experiences an emotional letdown after two monster games where they had to defeat Houston on the road to even make the playoffs before knocking off the reigning champions on the road last week. Tennessee benefited from winning the turnover battle in these last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. Derrick Henry has led the way for this team as they have rushed for 245 and 201 yards in these last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight contests. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Consistency has been a problem for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after winning at least two in a row. Tennessee has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. This is a very difficult assignment now facing a playoff team on the road for the third consecutive week. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by +15.2 PPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +10 PPG. And while Baltimore leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 28 PPG. The Ravens were an underdog last week with the Steelers because they rested key players including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens still scored four touchdowns with Robert Griffin III under center against a good Pittsburgh defense that needed a win along with a Titans loss to reach the playoffs. So here comes a rested Jackson along with Mark Ingram whose injured calf is improving late this week who leads an offense that leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG while ranking 2nd in the league by averaging 407.6 total YPG. What makes this Ravens’ offense so difficult to stop is their ability to play in “13” personnel with one running back and three tight ends who can all catch the ball. While the formation helps a heavy rushing attack, all three of those tight ends can catch the ball while offering Jackson a huge target down the field. Jackson faces a Titans’ defense that ranks 24th in the NFL by allowing 255.0 passing YPG. Baltimore also boasts the NFL’s top rushing attack that averages 206.0 rushing YPG. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least two touchdowns. But while the Baltimore offense gets most of the credit, don’t sleep on this Ravens defense that is 3rd in the NFL by allowing 17.6 PPG and 4th in the league by giving up only 300.6 total YPG. And since the team acquired Marcus Peters with Jimmy Smith getting healthy again to give the defense two elite cover cornerbacks, the Ravens have boasted the top statistical defense in the NFL in points allowed and yardage allowed. Those two cover corners provide the Ravens the luxury to place eight defenders in the box to slow down Henry rushing out of the backfield.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams from the AFC. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 playoff games under head coach John Harbaugh. Tennessee is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Baltimore. 10* NFL Tennessee-Baltimore CBS-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (304) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the Baltimore Ravens (304). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-7) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset victory at New England as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. Baltimore (14-2) has won twelve games in a row with their 28-10 upset win at Pittsburgh to end the regular season as a 2-point underdog back on December 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Baltimore was an underdog in that game with the Steelers since they rested key players including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens still scored four touchdowns with Robert Griffin III under center against a good Pittsburgh defense that needed a win along with a Titans loss to reach the playoffs. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. So here comes a rested Jackson along with Mark Ingram whose injured calf is improving late this week who lead an offense that leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG while ranking 2nd in the league by averaging 407.6 total YPG. What makes this Ravens’ offense so difficult to stop is their ability to play in “13” personnel with one running back and three tight ends who can all catch the ball. While the formation helps a heavy rushing attack, all three of those tight ends can catch the ball while offering Jackson a huge target down the field. Jackson faces a Titans’ defense that ranks 24th in the NFL by allowing 255.0 passing YPG. Baltimore also boasts the NFL’s top rushing attack that averages 206.0 rushing YPG. The Ravens have rushed for at least 218 yards in three straight games — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight contests. What may score some bettors off the Over is the outstanding defense that Baltimore plays. They limited the Steelers to just 168 total yards on a mere 3.5 Yards-Per-Play average — but they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after not allowing their last opponent to average more than 3.5 YPP. And while the Ravens have allowed only 25 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Tennessee has played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total after an upset victory on the road as an underdog. Derrick Henry battered the Patriots last week as he led a ground game that generated 201 rushing yards — and the Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they are scoring 27.7 PPG while averaging 378.7 total YPG. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill only threw the ball 15 times last week in the win against the Patriots — but he should not be underestimated to move the football in the air in this contest. Since taking over as the starting quarterback in Week Seven, Tannehill led the NFL for the rest of the regular season by averaging 6.94 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — and he was tied for 2nd in touchdowns and 6th in QBR. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: While Tennessee head coach would love to slow this game down by running Henry and burning time off the clock, this strategy is neutralized if Baltimore races out to a big lead — and the Ravens are averaging 17.7 PPG in the first half this season. The Titans have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC — and the Ravens have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against fellow AFC foes. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the Baltimore Ravens (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-3) closed out the regular season winning their last two games after their 26-21 victory at Seattle for Sunday Night Football back on December 29th as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (11-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 26-20 upset win in overtime at New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after an upset victory. Minnesota has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a narrow victory by 6 points or less. The Vikings have allowed at least 20 points in three straight games so being competitive will likely require them scoring into the 20s as well in this game. Minnesota does average 26.4 PPG on the road while averaging 374.2 YPG in those nine contests. The Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have also played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. QB Kirk Cousins should certainly be bursting with confidence after leading his team to a playoff victory with a winning overtime touchdown drive that thwarted the Saints' ability to get Drew Brees back on the field. Now they face a Niners team that is outscoring their opponents by +10.5 PPG — and they have played 11 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against teams that outscore their opponents by at least +10.0 PPG. And while the 49ers average 7.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their passing attack, Minnesota has played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after eight games into the season against opponents that average at least 7.5 YPA. San Francisco generated 398 yards two weeks ago in their victory over the Seahawks — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while the 49ers have scored 60 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after they scored at least 25 points in two straight games. San Francisco has also played 23 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a bye week. The Niners did activate linebacker Kwon Alexander this week after he has been out with a chest injury. They had been holding their opponents to only 11 PPG in their first seven games before that injury — but they have allowed at least 25 points in six of their last nine games without him. It remains unclear how effective Alexander will be in his return with head coach Kyle Shanahan indicating that he will not be asked to embark in full-time duty for this game. San Francisco has allowed its last three opponents to score 27.0 PPG while averaging 344.3 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing at home — and the Over is also 11-5-1 in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 11 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points, San Francisco has played 8 of these games Over the Total. 10* NFL Minnesota-San Francisco NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-3) closed out the regular season winning their last two games after their 26-21 victory at Seattle for Sunday Night Football back on December 29th as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (11-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 26-20 upset win in overtime at New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: That was a huge emotional victory for tat Vikings team on the road and particularly for Kirk Cousins who may have permanently removed the proverbial money that has been on his back regarding his failure to step up in big games. Cousins was solid but not spectacular against the Saints by completing 19 of 31 passes for 242 yards with a touchdown pass. But this situation is eerily similar to Minnesota’s miracle victory over New Orleans in the playoffs two years ago under head coach Mike Zimmer which was then followed up by them being completely flat on the road to another number one seed in the NFC at Philadelphia with the Eagles crushing them by a 38-7 score. As it is, the Vikings have only covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Frankly, I don’t think Minnesota wins that game if Drew Brees does commit that rare fumble that he suffered in what looked like a go-ahead drive midway through the 4th quarter. And then winning the coin flip in overtime helped tremendously as the Vikings then scored a touchdown to negate Brees get another chance with the football. Despite the victory, Minnesota is still only scoring 18.3 PPG over their last three contests while averaging just 267.0 total YPG over that span which is far below their 25.4 PPG and 353.5 total YPG season average. They did get running back Dalvin Cook back last week after he took the last couple of games off to close out the regular season — but he is still averaging just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry in his last seven games. The Vikings wide receivers are also less than 100% this week with Stefan Diggs dealing with an illness and Adam Thielen suffering an ankle injury that may slow him down. These are not great developments for a team that is used to playing on artificial turf as they did again last week. But when playing on grass as will be the case in Levi Stadium, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games. San Francisco secured their bye week and home field throughout the NFC playoffs with their clutch victory on the road against the Seahawks. The 49ers held Seattle scoreless in the first half of that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was very sharp in that game as he completed 18 of 22 passes for 285 yards while leading an offense that generated 398 total yards. The Niners are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. San Francisco has won five of their last seven games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The 49ers are 2nd in the league by scoring 29.9 PPG — and that number rises to 32.4 PPG at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +12.8 PPG and outgained their guests by +108.3 net YPG. San Francisco is also 2nd in the NFL by limiting their opponents to only 281.8 total YPG — and they will be getting the heart and soul of their defense back for this game in Kwon Alexander who has missed half the season with his chest injury.

FINAL TAKE: Teams unfamiliar with this Niners team has struggled as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-divisional opponents. San Francisco has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Minnesota’s victory last week was just their first win on the road against a team with a winning record all season. It was also just their first playoff win on the road since 2004. Yet the Vikings have still failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (147) and the Philadelphia Eagles (148). THE SITUATION: Seattle (11-5) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-21 loss at home to San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (9-7) has won four straight games with their 34-17 win at New York against the Giants as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 52 of their last 74 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Philly is riddled with injuries at wide receiver and their offensive line — and they will be without their best linemen in Lane Johnson for this game along with guard Brandon Books who was put onto Injured Reserve earlier this week. The Eagles have resorted to sinking-and-dunking their way to manufacture yardage - but this should be a bit easier to prepare for in the playoffs given the structural weaknesses of this Philadelphia offense at this points. The Eagles are scoring only 21.0 PPG — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games at home Under the Total. Philadelphia has also played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as the dog. Additionally, Philly has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs — and the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 home games in the playoffs. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing their last two games at home. Pete Carroll’s teams have also played 15 of their last 20 road games Under the Total after aa narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are also marred by injuries to their offense with their top three running backs out the season along with their best offensive lineman in left tackle Duane Brown. Seattle has scored only 21.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 333.3 total YPG which is -4.0 PPG and -41.1 YPG below their season average. The Seahawks have started slow in their last two games as well — they trailed by a 17-7 score at home to Arizona two weeks ago before failing to score in the first half last week to the 49ers. Carroll’s teams have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of two straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the playoffs as a favorite. Seattle has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs when laying the points.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of a November 24th meeting between these two teams in Philadelphia where the Seahawks won by a 17-9 score in windy conditions. It will be windy in this game as well which limited Wilson’s deep passing game the first time around. These two teams have now played 4 straight Unders. 10* NFL Seattle-Philadelphia NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (147) and the Philadelphia Eagles (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (9-7) has won four straight games with their 34-17 win at New York against the Giants as a 4-point favorite. Seattle (11-5) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams are hit hard by injuries. The good news for Philadelphia is that it looks like tight end Zach Ertz, running back Miles Sanders, and cornerback Jalen Mills will take the field today. Yet even relying on former practice squad, head coach Doug Pederson and his offensive coaching staff have been making things work. Over their last three games, the Eagles have scored 29.3 PPG along with averaging 415.3 total YPG. The foundation has been quarterback Carson Wentz who has asserted himself as the leader of this team. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory. The coaching staff has been forced to be innovative with all their injuries but they are finding ways to move the football. For example, since Week Fourteen, Wentz has completed 28 of his 31 screen passes for 237 yards which is the most in the NFL over that span. Pederson is not stranger to coaching his team up in the playoffs as an underdog — over the last three seasons, he has lead his team to four upset wins in five playoff games when getting the points. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 playoff games as the underdog. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games in January. Furthermore, Philadelphia has held their eight visitors to just 16.7 PPG along with only 273.6 total YPG which has helped them cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Seattle has been the beneficiary of turnover luck and mossed field goal luck which has helped them overcome getting outgained in yardage this season. And while the Seahawks are 7-1 on the road this year, they are being outgained by -6.8 net YPG overall in those games. Seattle has lost their original top three running backs on their depth chart to injury. Left tackle Duane Brown is also out with his biceps injury which takes away the most effective offensive lineman from a unit that ranks just 24th in Adjusted Sack Rate. The Seahawks are being outgained by -74.7 net YPG over their last three games given a slowed-down offense that is scoring only 21.3 PPG while averaging 333.3 total YPG during that span. Russell Wilson’s potential MVP campaign has waned in the second half of the season. After posting 100+ QB Ratings in eight of his first nine games, Wilson has registered just one game earning a QBR of 100 or better over his last seven starts. Seattle did not score in the first half last week against the 49ers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread after failing to score at least a field goal in the first half of their last game. They also are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against NFC opponents. And in their last 7 games in the playoffs, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Seattle’s 17-9 victory in Philly back on November 24th. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when looking to avenge a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score at least 14 points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (146) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (145). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-6) has lost two straight games with their 21-19 loss to Chicago at home last week as a 5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-10 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Vikings have not won on the road in the playoffs since 2004 — and they have lost eleven of their last thirteen road games in the playoffs going back to 1988. And with zero wins on the road against a team that finished with a winning record this season, I don’t think this team has the confidence to hang with the Saints when playing in the Big Easy in what will be a very energetic environment. A blind-spot with analytics in sports across the board is the tendency to treat every statistical moment as the same. But as we saw yesterday when the Buffalo Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen went on tilt late in that game where the urgency of the moment compelled him to make ill-advised backward pitches. The pressure of the playoffs impacts even professional athletes (ask the Houston Rockets when they were missing 28 3-pointers in a row in a Game Seven against Golden State). Maybe if Kirk Cousins had not gone 12 of 21 for just 126 yards in a critical game at home against Green Bay two weeks ago, I would feel better about his progression as a quarterback. Cousins clearly feels the pressure of leading this team that has Super Bowl talent at most other positions. I just cannot get over numbers like this: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record; they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. They are scoring only 22.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 261.0 total YPG over that span. They are also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Ever since their 26-9 loss at home to Atlanta on November 10th, the Saints have been dynamite on offense as they have scored at least 26 points in all seven games while scoring at least 34 points in each of their last four contests. Quarterback Drew Brees has a sensational 15:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those last four games — and he is completing 75.9% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 125.9 since Week 11. Furthermore, since Brees’ return in Week Eight after missing five games earlier to injury, New Orleans has ranked 3rd in the NFL in Expected Points Adder per play. The emergence of tight end of Jared Cook as a viable deep threat for this offense has made a big difference. Cook has six catches of at least 20 yards since Week Eleven. New Orleans is scoring 28.4 PPG at home while averaging 420.4 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when facing the Saints. Look for the Saints to pull away to cover this point spread. 10* NFL Minnesota-New Orleans Fox-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (146) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-6) has lost two straight games with their 21-19 loss to Chicago at home last week as a 5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-10 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. And while Minnesota lost those two games despite being at home, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing their last two games at home. Now the Vikings go back on the road where they are scoring 26.5 PPG while averaging 375.7 total YPG which is +22.2 net YPG above their season average. Minnesota has played 5 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The good news for the Vikings is that they expect to get back running back Dalvin Cook for this game after missing time (and rested) with his shoulder injury. But Minnesota may be forced to abandon the run game if they fall behind by multiple scores in this contest. The Vikings have been vulnerable in their pass coverage with opposing quarterbacks posting a Passer Rating of 99.7 with clean pockets which was just 16th in the league. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes has been torched this season with opposing quarterbacks completing 80% of their passes against them. Ever since their 26-9 loss at home to Atlanta on November 10th, the Saints have been dynamite on offense as they have scored at least 26 points in all seven games while scoring at least 34 points in each of their last four contests. Quarterback Drew Brees has a sensational 15:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those last four games — and he is completing 75.9% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 125.9 since Week 11. Furthermore, since Brees’ return in Week Eight after missing five games earlier to injury, New Orleans has ranked 3rd in the NFL in Expected Points Adder per play. The emergence of tight end of Jared Cook as a viable deep threat has made a big difference. Cook has six catches of at least 20 yards since Week Eleven. But the defense has been a concern for this team since they put defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport on Injured Reserve. After ranking 7th in the NFL with 29.3% pressure the quarterback rate, that number has dropped to just a 23.7% QB pressure rate over their last three games without both players which is 18th in the league. The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a blowout win of at least four touchdowns over an NFC South rival — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three straight games as the favorite. New Orleans is scoring 28.4 PPG at home while averaging 420.4 total YPG — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games at home. The Saints have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Over the Total. New Orleans is clicking on offense — but look for the Vikings to resort to their passing game to keep up. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (144) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (143). THE SITUATION: New England (12-4) looks to rebound from their 27-24 upset loss to Miami at home last week as a 17.5-point favorite. Tennessee (9-7) clinched the final spot in the AFC playoffs last Sunday with their 35-14 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England blew the opportunity to claim the second seed in the AFC playoffs last week which would not only have given them this week off but would have also ensured they played at home next week. The Patriots have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset loss to an AFC East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. The Dolphins Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 326 yards to lead his team to the upset victory — but New England has then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. This remains an outstanding Patriots defense that leads the NFL by allowing only 14.1 PPG and just 275.9 total YPG. Frankly, I think the rumors of the reigning Super Bowl champions have been overly exaggerated. Losing home field advantage certainly does not help their chances. And the Patriots have been challenged on offense without Rob Gronkowski and a viable deep threat (Antonio Brown fit that role perfectly) which was then made worse with injuries to their offensive line and at fullback which hurt their running game. Even with all these issues, New England is scoring 27.3 PPG over their last three games. The Patriots gained 352 yards against the Dolphins defense last week — and they are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New England was 6-2 at home this season where they outscored their guests by +10.2 PPG while outgaining these opponents by +82.1 net YPG. The Patriots are 42-20-3 ATS in their last 65 games at home — and they are 17-8-3 in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New England has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games in the playoffs. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Ryan Tannehill led the Tennessee offense to 467 yards of offense last week — but they are then 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans are also 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Tannehill has been a revelation for this Tennessee team — but Bill Belichick and the Patriots coaching staff are very familiar with him after facing him twice a year during his time in Miami. New England won all six of their games against Tannehill as a starter when playing the Dolphins with just five touchdown passes and ten interceptions while posting a low 70 Passer Rating in those six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Patriots. And while New England is typically laying more than a touchdown when playing at home, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when laying 3.5 to 7 points. 25* AFC Playoff Wildcard Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (144) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (143) and the New England Patriots (144). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-7) clinched the final spot in the AFC playoffs last Sunday with their 35-14 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite. New England (12-4) looks to rebound from their 27-24 upset loss to Miami at home last week as a 17.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The fortunes of this Tennessee team changed in Week Seven when head coach Matt Vrabel turned to Ryan Tannehill as his starting quarterback. Since that game, Tannehill has led an offense that averages 6.94 Yards-Per-Play which is best in the NFL over that span. The Titans also averaged 406.2 total YPG since Tannehill became the starting quarterback which was 3rd best in the league. Tannehill’s Passer Rating of 117.5 leads the NFL. Tennessee stays on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Titans have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Titans have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog. New England surrendered 389 yards to the Dolphins in their losing effort last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Patriots have allowed 324.0 total YPG over their last three games which is +49.1 net YPG above their season average. New England has also scored a healthy 27.3 PPG over their last three games.  Additionally, the Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a game at home where both teams scored at least 24 points. Moving forward, New England has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the playoffs — and they have played 9 of their last 10 playoff games Over the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against AFC opponents — and the Titans have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against AFC foes. Additionally, these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Over the Total when playing in Foxborough. 10* NFL Tennessee-New England CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (143) and the New England Patriots (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (141) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (142). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) enters the playoffs having lost their last two games along with three of the last four games with their 13-6 loss at home to the New York Jets last Sunday as a 1.5-point underdog. Houston (10-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-14 loss at home to Tennessee as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to an AFC South rival. While Houston had nothing to play for in that game, the fact that they surrendered 245 rushing yards to the Titans is a significant cause for concern. The Texans are allowing 121.1 rushing YPG which is 25th in the league — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Houston stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Texans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a favorite. Houston is being outscored and outgained by their visitors when playing at home — and they are also being outscored and outgained overall this season given their suspect defense that is just 28th in the league by allowing 388.3 total YPG. The Texans will be without wide receiver Will Fuller for this contests who has been downgraded to doubtful with his groin injury. Fuller plays a critical role in this offense with his speed giving Houston the ability to stretch the field. In their 325 passing plays with Fuller on the field, the Texans averaged 7.0 yards per passing plays with 31 plays that gained at least 20 yards — but in their 303 passing plays without Fuller, they averaged just 5.8 yards per play with just 17 plays gaining at least 20 yards. Buffalo rested quarterback Josh Allen and some of their key starters in their game with the Jets with them locked-in as the 5th seed in the AFC playoffs. The Bills have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Buffalo has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Buffalo plays outstanding defense — they rank 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 16.2 PPG and they rank 3rd in the league by giving up just 298.2 total YPG. The weakness of this team is with Allen in the passing game — but he has been more effective on the road this season. He leads an offense that is scoring 21.5 PPG while averaging 340.5 total YPG which are both better than their overall season marks. The Bills were 6-2 on the road this season while outscoring their opponents by +5.9 PPG. Buffalo is 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they are also 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: While Deshaun Watson is the better quarterback in this game, the best unit in this contest belongs to the Bills’ defense. Buffalo is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Buffalo-Houston ABC-TV Special with the Buffalo Bills (141) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) enters the playoffs having lost their last two games along with three of the last four games with their 13-6 loss at home to the New York Jets last Sunday as a 1.5-point underdog. Houston (10-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-14 loss at home to Tennessee as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Buffalo plays outstanding defense — they rank 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 16.2 PPG and they rank 3rd in the league by giving up just 298.2 total YPG. But the issue for this team is scoring as they average just 19.6 PPG — and they have managed to score only 13.3 PPG in their last three games. The Bills go on the road where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, Houston has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Texans will be without wide receiver Will Fuller for this contests who has been downgraded to doubtful with his groin injury. Fuller plays a critical role in this offense with his speed giving Houston the ability to stretch the field. In their 325 passing plays with Fuller on the field, the Texans averaged 7.0 yards per passing plays with 31 plays that gained at least 20 yards — but in their 303 passing plays without Fuller, they averaged just 5.8 yards per play with just 17 plays gaining at least 20 yards. Houston has played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents — and the Texans have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-3) has won two of their last three games with their 34-31 win over the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Saturday night. Seattle (11-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 27-13 upset loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point favorite lat Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Much is at stake in this game with the winner taking the NFC West crown with the loser taking the 5th seed in the playoffs and a date on the road next week. If the 49ers win this game, they also secure the top seed in the NFC side of the playoff bracket. With the stakes so high, expect a shootout between two teams that have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. San Francisco has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers have also played three straight Overs with all three games seeing at least 51 combined points scored — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Niners play on defense has collapsed since the injury of the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander. After holding their opponents to just 11 PPG in their first seven contests, they have allowed their last eight opponents to average 26.5 PPG. This defense has become even more banged up as the season goes on with this unit now missing defensive lineman Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt. The Niners have allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG while averaging 383.3 total YPG which is -105.9 net YPG above their defensive season average. San Francisco surrendered 395 total yards to the Rams last week with 323 of those yards coming in the air. The 49ers have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing at least 300 passing yards in their last contest. Now after playing their last two games at home, San Francisco goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The 49ers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in December — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as the favorite. And in their last 4 games against fellow NFC West opponents, San Francisco has played all 4 games Over the Total. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against NFC West foes. The Seahawks have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 23 of their last 33 home games Over the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Seattle is a M*A*S*H unit right now with their stable of running backs decimated by injuries and left tackle Duane Brown out with a bicep injury. The Seahawks had to resort to signing former players Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin off the street to serve as the running backs this week. While this is not ideal, if there is one position (outside of kicker) where a team could sign a player off the street and still see success that week, it is at running back — and both players are familiar with the playbook already. Frankly, the only way that Seattle can stay competitive in this game is in a higher-scoring game given the sorry state of their defense. The Seahawks rank 26th in the NFL by allowing 380.5 total YPG — and they allow their visitors to score 29.0 PPG while seeing them average 385.0 total YPG. Over their last three games, Seattle has allowed their opponents to score 26.3 PPG while generating 427.0 total YPG. The Cardinals gained 412 yards against them last week in the rematch of their earlier NFC West clash — and the Seahawks have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Seattle stays at home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog overall.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle won the first meeting between these two teams by a 27-24 score in overtime as a 6.5-point underdog — and the Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 10* NFL San Francisco-Seattle NBC-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (129) and the Seattle Seahawks (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). THE SITUATION: Seattle (11-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 27-13 upset loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point favorite lat Sunday. San Francisco (12-3) has won two of their last three games with their 34-31 win over the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Saturday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Much is at stake in this game with the winner taking the NFC West crown with the loser taking the 5th seed in the playoffs and a date on the road next week. If the 49ers win this game, they also secure the top seed in the NFC side of the playoff bracket. Seattle is a M*A*S*H unit right now with their stable of running backs decimated by injuries and left tackle Duane Brown out with a bicep injury. The Seahawks had to resort to signing former players Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin off the street to serve as the running backs this week. While this is not ideal, if there is one position (outside of kicker) where a team could sign a player off the street and still see success that week, it is at running back — and both players are familiar with the playbook already. In head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson, we will trust in this one to develop a game plan that puts his offense in a position to succeed even with this attrition. Seattle is 37-18-14 ATS in their last 69 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss at home. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The offense has struggled as of late with the offensive line not giving Wilson enough time in the pocket — he has been sacked 26 times over the last six games. Yet Seattle has scored at least 27 points in three of those contests. The Seahawks are also just 4-3 at home this season — but it would be foolish to diminish the home field edge they will enjoy tonight. Seattle is 33-15-3 in their last 51 games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games at home as the dog. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Niners play on defense has collapsed since the injury of the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander. After holding their opponents to just 11 PPG in their first seven contests, they have allowed their last eight opponents to average 26.5 PPG. This defense has become even more banged up as the season goes on with this unit now missing defensive lineman Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt. The Niners have allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG while averaging 383.3 total YPG which is -105.9 net YPG above their defensive season average. San Francisco has allowed their last three opponents to score at least 29 points — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 62 games after allowing their last two opponents to score at least 25 points. The Niners allowed the Rams to pass for 323 yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This team does not embrace the role of the favorite as they are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games when laying the points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as the favorite. San Francisco is also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams from the NFC with this including them going 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against fellow NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers will be looking to avenge a 27-24 upset loss at home in overtime to the Seahawks back on November 11th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss at home. San Francisco is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. 25* NFC West Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-9) has won three of their last four games with their 27-17 win over Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite last Sunday. Oakland (7-8) remained alive in the AFC playoff race last week with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders need to win this game and then see Tennessee and Pittsburgh lose with Indianapolis winning (for strength of victory tie-break implications) and then a little more help to bolster their strength of victory tie-breaker resume (like New England winning) — so the pressure is on head coach Jon Gruden’s group. The Steelers and Titans are both on the road so this playoff scenario is not completely out of the realm. But I do not expect Oakland to play well. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 47 of their last 74 games after an upset victory — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in seven of these last nine situations. Oakland has also failed to cover the point spewed in 23 of their last 32 games after an upset victory over an AFC West rival — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last four situations. Additionally, the inconsistent Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread victory. Oakland enters this game far from at full strength with rookie phenom Josh Jacobs out with his shoulder injury and the offensive line banged up with left tackle Trent Brown out and guard Richie Incognito questionable with an ankle. The Raiders defense is also depleted with injuries to safety Karl Joseph and defensive end Arden Key making the season-ending suspension to linebacker Vontaz Burfict even more devastating. There is a reason why this team had lost four straight games before they upset a reeling Chargers team. Oakland stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing three of their last four games. The Raiders are being outscored by -10.8 PPG away from home while allowing their home hosts to score 29.9 PPG. Oakland is 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the AFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Denver is playing for next season as they hope to build momentum under first-year head coach Vic Fangio and quarterback Drew Lock. The rookie has played well since getting a look under center — he completed 25 of 33 passes last week for 192 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions in leading the Broncos to victory. Denver is completing 65.3% of their passes over their last three games while averaging 233 passing YPG on a solid 6.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average with Lock taking the vast majority of those snaps. The Broncos are scoring 22.7 PPG while averaging 330.0 total YPG over those last three games which is a nice improvement over their 17.7 PPG and 302.6 YPG season averages. Any bump in offensive production makes this a much better team given the outstanding defense this team still plays. Denver ranks 10th in the NFL in both allowing only 20.1 PPG and surrendering just 327.7 total YPG. The Broncos are even stingier at home where they hold their visitors to just 18.3 PPG along with only 300.6 total YPG. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set at 38.5 to 42. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Denver will be motivated not only to build momentum for next season but also to play the role of spoiler for the Raiders’ playoff hopes. The Broncos will also be looking to avenge a 24-16 upset loss in Oakland back on September 9th where they were 3-point favorites. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-9) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 31-15 loss to Baltimore last week as a 9.5-point underdog. Cincinnati (1-14) has lost three games in a row with their 38-35 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Who knows how rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens will call plays this afternoon in his likely last opportunity to fulfill his lifelong fantasy of being both a head coach and offensive coordinator calling plays. Kitchens has been an utter failure this season with his lack of leadership best displayed in his unwillingness to defer the play-calling responsibilities to offensive coordinator Todd Monken after the Browns struggled early in the season. Kitchens had never even been an offensive coordinator when last season started — and he is unlikely to ever be a head coach or offensive coordinator ever again (at least in the NFL). Kitchens may use this game to dig deep into his drawings book of unused plays he has been compiling throughout his long traveled career as a journeyman assistant coach. But, I suspect he will be compelled to draw up plenty of running plays to feed the rock to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt for a delusional Hail Mary pass to keep his job when facing the league’s worst statistical run defense — and that is a good formula for the Under. As it is, the Browns have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. And while Cleveland managed only 241 yards of offense last week, the Under is then 42-20-2 in their last 64 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Browns are averaging just 322.3 YPG over their last three games — and they score only 19.3 PPG on the road. Cleveland needs to tighten things up on the defensive side of the ball after allowing 69 combined points over their last two games. The Browns have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total allowing at least 30 points in two straight contests. And while Cleveland allowed the Ravens to average 6.77 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after a loss. And while the Bengals went into halftime last week trailing the Dolphins by a 21-6 score, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after trailing by at least two touchdowns at halftime of their last game. Cincinnati did generate 430 yards last week — but the Under is 10-3-2 in their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals return home where they are scoring only 16.4 PPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Under is also 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games as an underdog. And in their last 16 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Under is 10-4-2.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have clinched the number one pick in the 2020 NFL draft — but they will be motivated to avenge a 27-19 loss in Cleveland back on December 8th as a 6.5-point underdog. Cincinnati has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (482) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (481). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-4) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 39-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite. Green Bay (11-3) has won three in a row with their 21-13 win over Chicago as a 4-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota will be without their top two running backs tonight with Delvin Cook and Alexander Mattison dealing with injuries. The Vikings still have capable running backs tonight with former Cincinnati Bearcat Mike Boone along with a former first-round draft pick in Ameer Abdullah so I am not very concerned about Minnesota having to dig deeper into their depth chart. Boone was great in the preseason so he should be fine as the lead back tonight. The Vikings are very tough to beat at home where they are 6-0 for the first time since 2009. They are outscoring their guests by +13.5 PPG while outgaining these foes by +53.6 net YPG. The Vikings have a great defense that ranks 6th in the NFL by allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Vikings defense is even better when playing at home where they are holding their opponents to just 14.2 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG. Minnesota is 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Vikings are also 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games as the favorite. This team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games in December. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. This Packers team has been grinding out victories in close games this season — they have six net close wins decided by one scoring possession. But Green Bay is being outgained by -35.7 net YPG this season — and they have been outgained by -19.0 YPG over their last three contests. And while the Packers are 4-2 on the road this year, they are being outscored in those games while also being outgained by -107.3 net YPG in those contests. Green Bay is averaging only 271.0 total YPG away from Lambeau Field. First-year head coach Matt LeFleur has this team running the ball more — but he has been very predictable with his game planning. Not including the first quarter (with initial scripted plays), quarterback Aaron Rodgers is completing less than 60% of his passes with only four touchdown passes over his last eighteen (non-first quarter) quarters. Those unimpressive numbers suggest LeFleur is getting out-schemed as the game moves forward. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road as an underdog. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota will be looking to avenge a 21-16 loss at Green Bay back on September 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Packers. 10* NFL Green Bay-Minnesota ESPN Special with the Minnesota Vikings (482) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-3) has won three in a row with their 21-13 win over Chicago as a 4-point favorite last week. Minnesota (10-4) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 39-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Green Bay has an improved defense this season that is 8th in the NFL by allowing only 20.2 PPG. Over their last three games, the Packers have allowed just 13.7 PPG along with only 337.3 total YPG. Some of the help to the defense has been a different style of play under first-year head coach Matt LeFleur as the team is running the ball more which keeps their defense rested. But Green Bay is averaging only 336.6 total YPG as a result which is 21st in the NFL. When the Packers play away from Lambeau Field, they are scoring just 20.8 PPG while averaging only 271.0 total YPG. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. While LeFleur’s emphasis on running the football may have made this team a more consistent winner, he is also very predictable with his game planning. Not including the first quarter (with those initial scripted plays), quarterback Aaron Rodgers is completing less than 60% of his passes with only four touchdown passes over his last eighteen (non-first quarter) quarters. Those unimpressive numbers suggest LeFleur is getting out-schemed as the game moves forward. Furthermore, the Packers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games against NFC North opponents, Green Bay has played all 7 of these games Under the Total. Minnesota has played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the NFC North. The Vikings have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and they have played 40 of their last 57 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Minnesota is undermanned tonight at the running back position with both Delvin Cook and Alexander Mattison not playing because of injuries. Over their last three games, the Vikings are averaging just 350.7 total YPG which is -21.9 YPG below their season average. Minnesota still has a great defense that ranks 6th in the NFL by allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Vikings defense is even better when playing at home where they are holding their opponents to just 14.2 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (480) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (479). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (10-4) has won four straight games with their 23-3 win over Denver last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Chicago (7-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week in their 21-13 loss at Green Bay as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago was eliminated from the playoffs last week with that loss to the Packers along with Minnesota’s victory — so there is a question regarding their motivation tonight. However, the opportunity to play the role of the spoiler on national television with the weight of the pressure of the high expectations they entered the season with will likely be liberating for this group. The Bears outgained Green Bay last week by +123 net yards but a -3 net turnover margin spoiled their effort. Chicago suffered a -2 net turnover in their win against Dallas the previous week — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games at home after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover in two straight games. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has played better as of late — he has averaged 299 passing YPG over his last four games while averaging 2.0 touchdown passes per game. Trubisky is also being more aggressive with his legs in critical situations — he rushed for 29 yards last week. Chicago returns home where they are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 36 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Bears still have an elite level defense as they rank 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.1 PPG — and they rank 8th in the league by giving up just 324.8 total YPG. Chicago’s defense is even tougher at home where they are allowing just 17.1 PPG along with only 299.7 total YPG. Kansas City may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in four straight games as well as six of their last eight games. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four of their last five games. Despite their four-game winning streak, the Chiefs are averaging only 341.3 total YPG which is over 40 YPG below their 384.4 total YPG season average. Kansas City will also be undermanned in their secondary tonight with cornerback Morris Claiborne out with a shoulder injury.

FINAL TAKE: It will be chilly in Chicago tonight with temperates dropping to the mid-30s — and the Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in December. 10* NFL Kansas City-Chicago NBC-TV Special with the Chicago Bears (480) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.