At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (451). THE SITUATION: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) won the Super Bowl on their home field at Raymond James Stadium — and their first game defending that championship will be in the same building tonight. Dallas (0-0) comes off a 6-10 season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has all 22 starters back from last year’s Super Bowl team (although Whitehead is out). After their bye week in Week Twelve, Tom Brady sat down with head coach Bruce Arians to tinker with the offensive game-planning to incorporate more of the concepts that Brady thrived in when playing in New England: more play-action pass, more pre-snap motion, and a bigger commitment to running the football earlier in the game. In their last eight games including their four playoff contests, the Buccaneers scored 33.9 PPG while reaching the 30-point threshold seven times. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the total set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opening games to a new season.

FINAL TALE: Dallas will likely be without right guard Zach Martin who is on their COVID list — and that does not help their cause against the outstanding Buccaneers’ pass rush. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against NFC opponents — and Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC foes. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (451) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) comes of a 6-10 campaign last season. Tampa Bay (0-0) won their final eight games last season culminating in their 31-23 win over Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys get Dak Prescott back on the field to begin the regular season after he missed the final eleven games of the year last year after he fractured his right ankle. Prescott had a shoulder issue in the preseason that kept him from playing in the preseason, but the reports are that he has looked good in practice this week after resting his arm for the last few weeks. Prescott was on a record-setting pace in generating passing yards last year before the injury — he had passed for 1856 yards in five games. Dallas was scoring over 33 Points-Per-Game and generating more than 490 Yards-Per-Game in Prescott’s five games before his season-ending injury. He might have the best wide receiver corps in the NFL with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and Cee Dee Lamb who may be on the verge of a breakout season. Prescott will be passing against a Buccaneers’ secondary that will be without starting strong safety Jordan Whitehead who is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Tampa Bay defense was great in the playoffs last year — but pass defense was their biggest vulnerability. They ranked 21st in the NFL by allowing 244.6 passing YPG. Dallas will likely be without their star right guard Zack Martin who is in COVID quarantine — but right tackle La’el Collins is expected to play after dealing with a stinger injury. Conner McGovern is a quality backup who will take Martin’s spot if he tests positive on game day. Martin’s absence hurts — but the loss takes more away from the run game than the passing attack. The Cowboys will likely be relying on their passing game given the state of the defense that first-year defensive coordinator Dan Quinn inherited. They allowed 29.6 PPG last season. Dallas has played 4 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when the Total set in at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 8 games in the opening month of the season, Dallas has played 5 of these games Over the Total. Tampa Bay has all 22 starters back from last year’s Super Bowl team (although Whitehead is out). After their bye week in Week Twelve, Tom Brady sat down with head coach Bruce Arians to tinker with the offensive game-planning to incorporate more of the concepts that Brady thrived in when playing in New England: more play-action pass, more pre-snap motion, and a bigger commitment to running the football earlier in the game. In their last eight games including their four playoff contests, the Buccaneers scored 33.9 PPG while reaching the 30-point threshold seven times. Tampa Bay has played 8 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Buccaneers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in September — and they have played 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season Over the Total. And in their last 10 appearances on Thursday Night Football. Tampa Bay has played 7 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC — and Tampa Bay has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total against conference opponents. The Buccaneers should score at least 30 points and the Cowboys should score at least 20 points playing catchup trying to stay within single digits. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (451) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (14-5) upset Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game by a 31-26 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Kansas City (16-2) defeated Buffalo by a 38-24 score as a 2.5-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game to advance to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship from last season. This game will be played in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay making the Buccaneers the first team to playing in their home stadium in a Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City played their best game of the 2020-21 season against the Bills in their two-touchdown victory. That is the Chiefs’ team I expected to show-up in the second half in our 25* play on KC against Cleveland. And we had Patrick Mahomes and company against Buffalo last week — so I do not recommend betting against the reigning champs lightly. I was tickled when hearing the pundits talk about the Chiefs inability to cover point spreads as of late — they went into the AFC Championship Game having only covered the spread once in their previous nine games. As if just winning 15 of 17 games was not impressive enough. Yet it took 45 minutes of great football from the Chiefs (after falling behind 9-0) for the conventional wisdom to dramatically shift to just how invincible they are. The truth is somewhere in the middle. But it remains hard to repeat as a Super Bowl champion — and Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not covering the point spread more than once in their last three games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home — which is usually when the public starts bandwagoning Mahomes again. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsider consider the Buccaneers the best team in the NFL (and before home field advantage). I do take their numbers with a few grains of salt — a bettor will go bankrupt fast relying exclusively on them. But, their analytics provide evidence that the Chiefs are perhaps overvalued in this game. And that is before the injury situation — which I consider severe. I have worried all postseason about KC being without right tackle Mitchell Schwartz who is on Injured Reserve with a back injury. Head coach Andy Reid said that he did not expect Schwartz to be available for the Super Bowl. The Achilles’ injury to Eric Fisher late in the Bills’ game leaves the Chiefs without their starting tackles — and the Buccaneers’ pass rush is ferocious now that have Vita Vea and Shaq Barrett back from injury to join Ndamukong Suh clogging the middle and Jason Pierre-Paul rushing from the outside. I do begin to worry about Mahomes’ left toe a bit when thinking about him missing both tackles — he was better on Sunday but not 100%. Tampa Bay was always going to be a work-in-progress in a year without a full training camp to get Tom Brady in-synch with head coach Bruce Arians. Adding Leonard Fournette and then Antonio Brown midseason to a team already loaded with talent at the skill positions made the challenge more difficult — but this team is peaking at the right time with two weeks to further grow. Since their loss to the Chiefs by a 27-24 score on November 29th, Tampa Bay is 7-0 with an average winning margin of +13.7 PPG while averaging 34.3 PPG and 424.0 Yards-Per-Game. Home field is also significant — not for the cheering crowd, which doesn’t hurt. The Buccaneers getting to play in a Super Bowl in their comfortable and familiar facilities while sleeping in their own beds is a big deal.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a favorite. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they will be a bit better on February 7th than they were when they last played over two months ago. 25* NFL Super Bowl *A-List* Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). Best of luck for us — Frank (and look for my Super Bowl Prop Bets Report the morning of the Super Bowl).

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-2) defeated Buffalo by a 38-24 score as a 2.5-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game to advance to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship from last season. Tampa Bay (14-5) upset Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game by a 31-26 score as a 2.5-point underdog. This game will be played in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay making the Buccaneers the first team to playing in their home stadium in a Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kansas City scored 21 points in the second quarter en route to their easy victory over the Bills while demonstrating just how good their offense is when full-engaged. The Chiefs scored 32.1 PPG in their first ten games of the season before going on cruise control a bit which coincided with their 27-24 victory at Tampa Bay on November 29th in Week 12. Kansas City also raced out to a 19-3 halftime lead in their previous game against Cleveland. A fast start for Patrick Mahomes should help ensure this becomes a high-scoring game — they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after scoring at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. Since the Chiefs “flipped the switch” in the postseason again, they have averaged 7.06 and 6.97 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.5 YPP in two straight games. Kansas City has also scored 31.6 PPG in their eight games on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 15 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Chiefs’ defense allowed 363 yards to the Bills — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay was always going to be a work-in-progress in a year without a full training camp to get Tom Brady in-synch with head coach Bruce Arians. Adding Leonard Fournette and then Antonio Brown (who should be healthy again for the Super Bowl) midseason to a team already loaded with talent at the skill positions made the challenge more difficult — but this team is peaking at the right time with two weeks to further grow. Since their loss to the Chiefs by a 27-24 score on November 29th, Tampa Bay is scoring 34.3 PPG while averaging 424.0 Yards-Per-Game. The Buccaneers have scored at least 30 points in six straight games — win or lose, I suspect they will hit the 30-point threshold for a seventh straight game. And I expect Mahomes to at least be able to keep up since KC will keep their foot on the gas pedal all game — ensuring our Over. Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 20 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. The Buccaneers defense allowed the Packers to gain 381 yards — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards. Tampa Bay has seen at least 50 points in six straight games — and not only have they played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored but they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing four straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Buccaneers have also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home to their opponent — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 7 points or less. Giving head coach Bruce Arian to dial-up plays and a strategy to react to their loss just over two months ago should ensure the Bucs’ score more points this time around — and that should push this rematch above the number. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs (101) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank (and look for my Super Bowl Prop Bets Report the morning of the Super Bowl).

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-2) advanced to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship last Sunday with their 22-17 win against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite. Buffalo (15-3) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 17-3 win against Baltimore last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes cleared the concussion protocol on Friday but there is still the issue of the turf toe in his left foot. He will not be 100% with the pain and discomfort that he will experience — yet I still expect Kansas City to cover point spread expectations. I do think the reigning Super Bowl champions were able to flip a switch once the playoffs started last week. They raced out to a 19-3 lead at halftime (which could have been an even bigger lead if not for missed kicks). This is a good sign for them this week — the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after owning a halftime lead by at least two touchdowns. KC has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. The Chiefs gained 438 yards overall even with Mahomes leaving the game in the third quarter — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Many observers fading Kansas City in this game cite that they have only covered the point spread once in their last nine games. But the Chiefs have coved the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. So much criticism for a team that won fifteen of their seventeen games this season. And they will be playing in Arrowhead Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when laying no more than 7 points. Buffalo has won eight straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning at least four in a row. And after playing their last three games at home, the Bills go back on the road for the first time since December 28th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing at least two straight games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Kansas City to play the Chiefs.

FINAL TAKE: Josh Allen and the Bills have been a great story in the second half of this season — but they face a significant disadvantage in playoff experience. This is all new territory for Allen, head coach Sean McDermott, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll (as an OC), and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. The Chiefs’ Andy Reid has been the head coach in two Super Bowls and eight championship games between his time with Philadelphia and Kansas City. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has won two Super Bowls running the defense for the Chiefs last year and previously with the New York Giants. And then there is the battle between Allen and Mahomes. Kansas City should win this game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (15-3) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 17-3 win against Baltimore last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Kansas City (15-2) advanced to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship last Sunday with their 22-17 win against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes cleared the concussion protocol on Friday but there is still the issue of the turf toe in his left foot. While Mahomes has said it feels better, this is an injury that needs a few weeks to heal — and numbing drugs can only do so much. Mahomes will not be at 100% — and his mobility will be limited. As it is, Kansas City has transformed into more of a ball-control offense in the second half of the season. In Mahomes’ last five starts (which excludes Week 17) since the Chiefs’ 35-31 win against Las Vegas, they are scoring only 25.5 PPG while not scoring more than 33 points during that stretch. Head coach Andy Reid is letting the clock burn when Mahomes is on the field in what appears to me to be an attempt to keep his defense fresh. This has helped the defense put up better numbers in the second half of the season. Kansas City has held these last six opponents (excluding the Chargers in Week 17 since Mahomes did not play) to 345.7 Yards-Per-Game with five of those opponents not gaining more than 367 yards. While not elite numbers, this approach is leading to lower-scoring games. Cleveland managed only 308 total yards last week against the Chiefs’ defense. The Bills score 30.3 PPG — but Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who score at least 29 PPG. And while the Chiefs gained 438 yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Tellingly, Kansas City has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, there is the issue of the sputtering KC offense in the Red Zone. Since Week 12, the Chiefs possess just the 26th most effective Red Zone offense in scoring touchdowns. This is not a good sign when facing this Bills’ defense that has had the best Red Zone defense since Week 12. These two teams played on October 19th with Kansas City winning by a 26-17 score. Despite the final result, Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is likely to consider the defensive game plan a success. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier did not blitz at all in that game. The Bills’ begged Mahomes to hand off the football — and he did 46 times which resulted in 245 rushing yards. Yet KC scored a field goal below their season average. Given their improved Red Zone defense since that game, McDermott is likely to dare Mahomes to hand the ball off again while giving him the short passing game but not letting him burn the defense from the mismatches that ensue from using linebackers as pass rushers. Other defenses began copying this defensive approach which has also played a role in Kansas City’s declining offensive numbers in the second half of the season. This Buffalo defense will healthier in this rematch with linebacker Matt Milano playing in this game amongst others. Getting back to full strength helped the Bills’ defense rank sixth in the NFL since Week Seven using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Buffalo held the Ravens last week to just 340 yards. Yet Buffalo managed only 220 yards on their own while benefiting from their 100-yard interception return for a touchdown — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Bills’ first 20 plays from scrimmage were pass plays for Josh Allen — and that 21st play was a broken pass play that Allen then rushed for positive yardage. Buffalo runs the ball only 30% of the time in their offensive plays in the first half. I expect this playscript to change in this game against the suspect Chiefs’ run defense that ranks as the sixth-worst in the NFL using DVOA. The Bills’ attention to run the ball a bit more will also help them burn time off the clock to limit the offensive possessions Mahomes will enjoy. The Under is 9-2-1 in Buffalo’s last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 30 of their last 42 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and Kansas City has played 4 of the last 5 home games Under the Total as a favorite. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311) and the Green Bay Packers (312). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (13-5) has won six games in a row with their 30-20 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Green Bay (14-3) has won seven games in a row after their 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Tom Brady is operating the Tampa Bay offense at its most optimal level as he has all season. The Buccaneers went into last week averaging 526.7 Yards-Per-Game in their previous three contests — and his offense is scoring 35.0 PPG over their last three games after scoring 30 last week against the stout Saints’ defense. That was the fifth game in a row that Tampa Bay scored at least 30 points. They have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win by at least 10 points. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. They stay on the road where they are scoring 32.5 PPG while averaging 417.1 total YPG. Tampa Bay has played 25 of their last 35 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have played 10 of their last 13 road games Over the Total as an underdog of 7 points or less. Green Bay has scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight games. The lone exception was when they only scored 24 points in their 8-point win against Carolina on that Saturday game on December 19th — and they have then won their next three games by at least two touchdowns. The Packers have then played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after winning their last two games by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning their last three games by at least 14 points. Green Bay is scoring 35.7 PPG in these most recent three games while averaging 416.0 total YPG. They stay at home where they are scoring 31.7 PPG at Lambeau Field while averaging 415.4 YPG. The Packers have played 4 straight home games Over the Total when playing a team with a winning record on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total in the playoffs. Green Bay has also played 6 straight playoff games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on October 18th with Tampa Bay winning at home by a 38-10 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Both Brady and Rodgers only passed for 166 and 160 yards in that game — but both quarterbacks have overseen adjustments since that game which should help them be more effective in this rematch. The Packers have played 8 straight games Over the Total in January — and Tampa Bay has played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total against fellow NFC rivals. Look for both teams to score at least 25 points in this shootout. 10* NFL Tampa Bay-Green Bay Fox-TV O/U Special with Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311) with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311) and the Green Bay Packers (312).. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (14-3) has won seven games in a row after their 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (13-5) has won six games in a row with their 30-20 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers are playing the best football of their season right now which is just how head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Tom Brady planned. However, this is a very challenging situation for them to travel up to Lambeau Field under their recent circumstances. They overcame a huge obstacle in upsetting the Saints on the road after they had lost the previous two times against this season by a combined 72-26 score. They also benefited from a +4 net turnover margin on Sunday. They are not likely to be so fortunate against a Packers team that has a +6 net turnover margin this season and that has only turned the ball over 12 times all year. Green Bay has committed only two turnovers in their last seven games — and Aaron Rodgers has just five interceptions all season. Part of head coach Matt LaFleur’s system is to ask Rodgers to do less in the passing game. It is working. And Tampa Bay is now playing their third straight game away from home which adds to the stress and complications of their situation. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games away from home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 games after pulling off an upset win. Additionally, Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games this season after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Buccaneers are also surviving high-scoring games with at least 50 combined points scored in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. We had Tampa Bay last week — but did so understanding that the Bucs had a 1-5 record against teams that made the playoffs (during the regular season). Every other team playing in the divisional round had registered at least four victories against teams that made the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s six-game winning streak came against Atlanta (twice), Detroit, Minnesota, and then Washington and New Orleans in the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting up to 7 points. Green Bay will be very comfortable in this situation being led by Rodgers. They dominated the Rams by a 484 to 244 margin in yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. And in their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers will retain a significant home-field edge — not only in not traveling this week and playing in front of a loud crowd (as were the reports last week) even if not at full capacity at Lambeau Field last week. Yet the biggest edge for Green Bay in this game is that they will be very comfortable in playing in the cold weather. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in January — and Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (12-5) advanced from the NFC Wild Card playoffs last Saturday night with their 31-23 victory at Washington as a 10-point favorite. New Orleans (13-4) has won three straight games after their 21-9 victory against Chicago last Sunday as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay is playing their best football of the season with five straight victories. They generated 507 yards against a good Washington defense with one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. The Buccaneers have then covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 43 of their last 69 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. This Buccaneer’s offense hit rock bottom on November 8th in their most recent encounter with the Saints in a 38-3 loss at home as a 3-point underdog. Tampa Bay was simply a mess on offense in that game with Tom Brady making ill-advised deep passes on short third-down situations. The Buccaneers ran the ball a mere five times — making a mockery of the analytics grifters who write articles every couple of years calling for offenses to pass on every down (as if there is not an adequate sample size from the Big 12 conference to assess the effectiveness of such a strategy). That game was also the debut of Antonio Brown with the team with the Bucs seeming to think he was just a “plug-and-play” solution. If there was a silver lining from that humiliation, it was that it forced Brady to get on the same-page Bruce “no risk it, no biscuit” Arians on the offensive philosophy of this team. Slowly, this offense is looking more like the ones he operated in New England — albeit with more deep throws still (but he has the talent to do it with his receiving corps). I expect this game plan to rely plenty on Brady’s assessment regarding how to attack this Saints’ defense he has played twice already — and that has just the 29th ranked Red Zone defense. The Tampa Bay offense enters this game clicking on all cylinders by scoring 40.7 PPG and averaging 527.6 total YPG. Brown has found his niche as one of the weapons at Brady’s disposal. Brady has been more accurate with his deep balls — he is averaging 9.7 Yards-Per-Attempt since their bye in Week 13 which is over 2.0 YPA above what he was averaging before the extra time to self-audit the offense. Granted, Brady’s recent success has been against teams with losing records in Detroit, Atlanta, and Washington (with Minnesota and the Falcons again since the bye week). How much of Brady’s success is legitimate and how much of it was a product of playing the Lions, et al, defenses? The metrics at Football Outsiders say the improvement is legit with the Buccaneers’ weighted DVOA on offense now ranked second in the NFL. Maybe the Tampa Bay offensive problems is as simple as two grizzled veterans in Brady and Arians needing (and using) the regular season to figure out how to mesh philosophies without the benefit of a normal offseason? The Bucs’ defense gets a shot in the arm with linebacker Devin White returning to action after testing positive for COVID. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set at 49.5. They are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread covers as a double-digit underdog. Brees has not looked 100% since his return from his rib injury — the Football Outsiders’ folks have assessed him a negative DVOA game grade in two of his four starts since his return. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New Orleans has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games when favored by 3 points or less. Additionally, the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 home games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: While it may not be impossible to defeat a team three times in one season, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when playing with revenge from two straight losses to their opponent where they allowed at least 28 points. Tampa Bay has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when averaging a loss at home by at least three touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss at home by at least four touchdowns. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (12-5) advanced from the NFC Wild Card playoffs last Saturday night with their 31-23 victory at Washington as a 10-point favorite. New Orleans (13-4) has won three straight games after their 21-9 victory against Chicago last Sunday as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneer’s offense hit rock bottom on November 8th in their most recent encounter with the Saints in a 38-3 loss at home as a 3-point underdog. Tampa Bay was simply a mess on offense in that game with Tom Brady making ill-advised deep passes on short third-down situations. The Buccaneers ran the ball a mere five times — making a mockery of the analytics grifters who write articles every couple of years calling for offenses to pass on every down (as if there is not an adequate sample size from the Big 12 conference to assess the effectiveness of such a strategy). That game was also the debut of Antonio Brown with the team with the Bucs seeming to think he was just a “plug-and-play” solution. If there was a silver lining from that humiliation, it was that it forced Brady to get on the same-page Bruce “no risk it, no biscuit” Arians on the offensive philosophy of this team. Slowly, this offense is looking more like the ones he operated in New England — albeit with more deep throws still (but he has the talent to do it with his receiving corps). I expect this game plan to rely plenty on Brady’s assessment regarding how to attack this Saints’ defense he has played twice already — and that has just the 29th ranked Red Zone defense. The Tampa Bay offense enters this game clicking on all cylinders by scoring 40.7 PPG and averaging 527.6 total YPG. Brown has found his niche as one of the weapons at Brady’s disposal. Brady has been more accurate with his deep balls — he is averaging 9.7 Yards-Per-Attempt since their bye in Week 13 which is over 2.0 YPA above what he was averaging before the extra time to self-audit the offense. Granted, Brady’s recent success has been against teams with losing records in Detroit, Atlanta, and Washington (with Minnesota and the Falcons again since the bye week). How much of Brady’s success is legitimate and how much of it was a product of playing the Lions, et al, defenses? The metrics at Football Outsiders say the improvement is legit with the Buccaneers’ weighted DVOA on offense now ranked second in the NFL. Gaining 507 yards last week against the Football Team was impressive since they have a very good defense — and that effort was encouraging regarding how Brady will handle the pass rush this week since Washington is top-ten in pressure rate. Maybe the Tampa Bay offensive problems is as simple as two grizzled veterans in Brady and Arians needing (and using) the regular season to figure out how to mesh philosophies without the benefit of a normal offseason. The team trends suggest the Bucs will score their share of points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 25 of their last 34 road games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Buccaneers have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total as an underdog including 6 straight Overs when not getting more than 3 points. New Orleans has covered the point spread in their last three games as a favorite — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight when laying the points. The Saints are going to score their share of points in this game — they average 30.4 PPG at home. Drew Brees is also averaging 35.3 PPG in his last three games while averaging 438.3 YPG and he is getting his weapons like Michael Thomas back for the playoff run. New Orleans has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 7 points. The Saints have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in New Orleans. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (12-5) has won their last two games as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 48-37 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5-point underdog. Kansas City (14-2) rested starters with the top seed in the AFC playoffs locked last week in a 38-21 loss to the Los Angels Chargers as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Browns have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Cleveland generated 390 yards in the win — and the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But while the Browns raced out to their 28-0 lead in the first quarter benefiting from some Steelers’ turnovers, they ended allowing Pittsburgh to gain 501 yards against them. Cleveland has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 500 yards in their last contest. And while they enjoyed a +5 net turnover margin in that game, the Browns have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a game where they had a +3 or better net turnover margin. Cleveland stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. Additionally, the Browns have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog. Kansas City has played 7 straight home games Over the Total after playing their last game at home at Arrowhead Field. And while the Chiefs have not covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and the Browns are 6-3 away from home where they score 27.9 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 4 straight games Over the Total when playing in January. Even with the Total set in the high-50s, expect a higher scoring game that reaches that plateau. 10* NFL Cleveland-Kansas City CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (305) and the Kansas City Chiefs (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-2) rested starters with the top seed in the AFC playoffs locked last week in a 38-21 loss to the Los Angels Chargers as a 7-point underdog. Cleveland (12-5) has won their last two games as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 48-37 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I really liked the situation for the Browns in that playoff game playing with no pressure given all the COVID adversity with the Steelers seeming to dismiss that their AFC North “younger brother” offered any threat with Ben Roethlisberger owning a 13-0 record at home against Cleveland in his career. Well, I “so right” about the Browns that it ruined our bigger play on the Under. With hindsight being 20/20, upgrading the Under play above the Cleveland side play was the sound fundamental play given the evidence at hand. That opening fumble in the end zone that the Brown recovered and then Roethlisberger throwing four interceptions to help Cleveland go into halftime with a 35-10 lead changed the entire dynamic of that game (while forcing the Steelers to abandon the run for their 2-minute offense). In winning that playoff game under those circumstances — without their head coach Kevin Stefanski — against their most-hated division rival was not only the Browns winning their Super Bowl but may very well be the biggest victory in the Super Bowl era. I like Baker Mayfield and this team when they can play with a chip on their shoulder about being disrespected. I hate Baker Mayfield and this team when they start feeling themselves after experiencing positive results. It will be an emotional two weeks by kickoff — and that is difficult to sustain for even the most battle-tested veteran group. The team hopes Stefanski returns to the building on Thursday. I expect Cleveland to be flat in this game despite playing with the proverbial “house money”. Let’s look at the team trends regarding how this team responds to situations like this. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a win on the road by at least 10 points against an AFC North rival. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. And while Cleveland needed to defeat Pittsburgh in Week 17 to make the playoffs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two against divisional opponents. And remember how unimpressive the Browns were in eking out that 24-22 win against Mason Rudolph and the Steelers’ second string? This is a team with Bluto for Animal House’s 0.0 when it comes to their net PPG differential — and they are outgained in yardage on the season. On the road, Cleveland was outscored and outgained. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and this is an uber-difficult fourth game in their last five away from home. Winning the turnover battle in the last two weeks certainly helps — but the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover edge in their last two games. Here comes rested Kansas City under head coach Andy Reid who has covered the point spread in 19 of his 29 games when getting the benefit of a bye week. Worried about the Chiefs only covering the point spread once in their last eight games? KC has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Worried about the Browns running the ball against a run defense that experts at Football Outsiders (who do not incorporate Time of Possession into their metrics) rank as the 31st in the NFL in DVOA? Well, this was an issue last year as well in their Super Bowl championship run. Cleveland won’t be running the ball when down 10 points. The bigger question is how will the Browns’ pass defense that allows 262.5 passing YPG which is 25th in the league (and DVOA! ranks this unit 25th against the pass, as well) stop Patrick Mahomes? Not only has their secondary been banged up all year, but the Browns also lost their second-best pass rusher in Olivier Vernon to a season-ending injury. The Cleveland defense is not good at this point of the season. Big Ben passed for 501 yards against them on Sunday — and Rudolph passed for 309 yards while leading an offense that gained 394 yards. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 450 YPG. Cleveland is also 9-26-2 ATS in their last 37 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. And all this assumes the best case scenario with Cleveland getting everyone back who were in quarantine last week because of COVID. To quote Larry David, this situation is “pretty, pretty, pretty good” (with the caveat that there are never anything “sure things” — but this is as good as it gets. Please don’t bet the house). 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (304) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (303). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (14-3) defeated Indianapolis at home last Saturday in their Wild Card playoff game by a 27-24 score as a 7-point favorite. Baltimore (12-5) has won six games in a row with their 20-13 win at Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: I hate this situation for the Ravens as they will be playing their third straight games on the road in this one. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning their last two games on the road. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in in 35 of their last 55 games after being on the road in their last two contests — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in three of those last four situations. And while they have covered the point spread for bettors in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite. It will be cold with flurries in this game — and quarterback Lamar Jackson has said he has never played in snow in his career. Some quarterbacks love the cold and snow — Josh Allen has performed well in these conditions. This remains to be seen for Jackson — and he may lose mobility playing in these conditions if he is not wearing the correct cleats for his game (and this is not a given that he and the trainers will easily figure it out in this initial trial). Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Bills have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 52 games after a close win by a field goal or less — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a win at home by 3 points or less. Buffalo hosts this game where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. The Bills have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has become a juggernaut with the maturation of Josh Allen this season. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against AFC foes while also covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Home field edge probably makes the difference in this one — not the fans (although Buffalo is allowing limited attendance for this game) but the cold weather and avoiding continued travel like the Ravens are enduring simply puts the Bills is a better position to execute this week. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (304) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (303) and the Buffalo Bills (304). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (12-5) has won six games in a row with their 20-13 win at Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Buffalo (14-3) defeated Indianapolis at home last Saturday in their Wild Card playoff game by a 27-24 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The weather is going to be cold with a decent chance of flurries in this game. To quote Dan Marino: “if it’s snowing’, I’m throwin’!” I do not worry about playing Overs in snowy conditions if the supporting evidence points strongly to the Over — which is the case for this situation. The Over is 11-2-1 in the Bills’ last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win at home. Buffalo generated 395 yards of offense in that game while averaging 7.09 Yards-Per-Play. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP. Buffalo has scored at least 26 points in nine straight games while eclipsing 30 points in six of those contests. The Bills have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in five straight games. But Buffalo surrendered 309 passing yards en route to the Colts’ 472 total yards in that game. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Buffalo has allowed 50 combined points in their last two games while giving up at least 24 points nine times this season. Last week’s game just made it Over the 50.5 point Total — and the Bills have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Baltimore has played three straight Unders after last week’s game finished below the 53.5 total — but they have played 24 of their last 41 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. The Ravens have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning their last two games on the road. Baltimore had scored at least 27 points in five straight games before only reaching 20 points last week in what turned out to be a game where both teams wanted to control the clock. And while the Ravens’ defense has only surrendered 18.6 PPG this season, they have given up at least 28 points five times. Buffalo averages 290 passing YPG — and Baltimore has played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG. The Ravens score 28.2 PPG on the road — and while they average 194 rushing YPG, the Bills have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams who average at least 170 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-1-1 in Baltimore’s last 5 playoff games when they were the underdog. Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. This is a heavyweight contest — and both these teams will keep fighting to win which should push the final score Over the Total. 25* NFL Saturday Night Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (303) and the Buffalo Bills (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Green Bay Packers (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (11-6) has won two in a row after defeating Seattle on the road as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Green Bay (13-3) returns to action off a bye week after defeating Chicago on the road by a 35-16 score on January 3rd as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Los Angeles may be allowing only 18.6 PPG this season — but they have allowed at least 20 points in six of their last eight games. The Rams’ defensive numbers are helped by them holding New England to just a field goal and Arizona to only a touchdown since December. Los Angeles allows their the nine teams they played on the road to 23.1 PPG — so Green Bay scoring at least in the mid-20s is likely. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has also played 32 of their last 49 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Additionally, the Rams have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog overall under the leadership of head coach Sean McVay. And in their last 5 games in the NFC Divisional Playoffs, Los Angeles has played all 5 games Over the Total. Green Bay has played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after winning at least six games in a row. The Packers are scoring 31.6 PPG while averaging 406.9 YPG in their eight home games. Green Bay has scored at least 24 points in nine straight games with them reaching 30 points in seven of those contests. The Packers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 40 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 straight games Over the Total in the playoffs — and they have played 7 of their last 10 playoff games Over the Total when favored. 10* NFL LA Rams-Green Bay Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (301) and the Green Bay Packers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (13-3) returns to action off a bye week after defeating Chicago on the road by a 35-16 score on January 3rd as a 4.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-6) has won two in a row after defeating Seattle on the road as a 3-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Rams may be due for a letdown after pulling off that upset victory against their NFC South rival — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after pulling off an upset win on the road against a divisional foe. Additionally, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games — and while they covered the point spread in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. With John Wolford dealing with the neck injury he suffered against the Seahawks, Jared Goff will be the starting quarterback in this game. Under normal circumstances, I worry about the California product playing in cold weather — he does not have a great history playing in the cold in those rare occasions in his career. Yet asking Goff to control a hardened ball from the cold with screws in his hand may be too much to ask. Highs are expected to be in the 30s for this game. Goff completed just 9 of 19 passes last week for 155 yards. The Rams’ offense relied on their ground game as they rushed for 164 yards — but Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. This is an offense that is scoring only 19.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 333.3 total YPG in those games. This is old hat for Green Bay — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a divisional rival. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +12.1 net PPG. They are holding their guests to just 19.5 PPG along with 308.9 total YPG. They are also scoring 31.6 PPG while averaging 406.9 YPG in their eight home games. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has scored at least 24 points in nine straight games with them reaching 30 points in seven of those contests. Furthermore, the Packers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoffs games at home in the Green Bay cold weather. Aaron Rodgers’ team has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The favorite has covered the point spread in 9 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in the last 6 of these games. It is tough to see Goff at less than 100% keeping up with Rodgers at Lambeau Field. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (151) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (11-5) has won two of their last three games after defeating the Steelers at home last Sunday by a 24-22 score as a 10.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (12-4) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: The COVID situation that has hit this Cleveland organization is far from ideal. The Browns have lost eight players to COVID quarantine including Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio and cornerback Denzel Ward. They will also be without head coach Kevin Stefanski who has tested positive. Special teams coach Mike Priefer will be the acting head coach for this game with offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt calling the plays. I think that the coaching situation will be fine in-game. The fact that Stefanski prepared and coached against the Steelers for their must-win contest last week really helps to soften the blow — this Cleveland team will be well prepared for this game. Will all the absences make Pittsburgh just a bit more complacent after almost pulling the upset last week despite benching some starters including Ben Roethlisberger? Back to that point in a moment. I love these circumstances for the Browns as they play this game without any pressure coming from expectations. This team in the Baker Mayfield era tends to be at their worst after success when they start believing their hype. Now the only hype is how outclassed they will be — so Myles Garrett and company can play with a chip on their shoulder. As it is, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Furthermore, the Browns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. This team still has the two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield who helped them rush for 192 yards against this defense last week with a 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry average. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game. The Browns generated 358 yards last week — and Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss. This is a team that stumbled down the stretch with four losses in their last five games. Can they just flip the switch? Yes, Big Ben Roethlisberger should be in better health this week after getting last week off to rest with Pittsburgh already locked as the three seed in the AFC playoffs. Outside a second half against the Colts where Roethlisberger ignored his offensive coordinator to lead the offense to 17 points, the Steelers’ offense has looked stagnant in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh is struggling to run the football — they are averaging only 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This has contributed to the Steelers’ relying on quick passing routes — but with Roethlisberger’s struggles to execute the vertical passing game because of his health, a decline in his skills, or the lack of balance in the Pittsburgh offense — and that has made their offensive attack too predictable. The Steelers failed to score more than 19 points in five straight games before that second half against Indianapolis produced their 28 points in the final score. Pittsburgh has a COVID issue of their own with cornerback Joe Haden out for this game. The Steelers’ outstanding defense continues to get depleted with linebackers Devin Bush and Marcus Dupree already out the year.

FINAL TAKE: Roethlisberger is a perfect 13-0 at home in his career against the Browns — but I think this history of success may only serve to fuel the hints of complacency the players may have for this game. The Steelers have a recent history of underachievement in the playoff as well. They are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in the postseason — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games when favored. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (151) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (151) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (11-5) has won two of their last three games after defeating the Steelers at home last Sunday by a 24-22 score as a 10.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (12-4) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. The Under is also a decisive 39-19-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 60 games after a point spread win. That game with the Browns finished Over the 44.5 point Total — but the Steelers have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Big Ben Roethlisberger should be in better health this week after getting last week off to rest with Pittsburgh already locked as the three seed in the AFC playoffs. Outside a second half against the Colts where Roethlisberger ignored his offensive coordinator to lead the offense to 17 points, the Steelers’ offense has looked stagnant in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh is struggling to run the football — they are averaging only 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This has contributed to the Steelers’ relying on quick passing routes — but with Roethlisberger’s struggles to execute the vertical passing game because of his health, a decline in his skills, or the lack of balance in the Pittsburgh offense — and that has made their offensive attack too predictable. The Steelers failed to score more than 19 points in five straight games before that second half against Indianapolis produced their 28 points in the final score. Pittsburgh has thrown the ball 44 and 49 times in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing the ball at least 40 times in two straight games. The Steelers return home where they have been very tough to score on — they are holding their visitors to 18.6 PPG along with 295.1 YPG. The Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games when favored. And in their last 26 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Pittsburgh has played 17 of these games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Browns have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The COVID outbreak will certainly not make things easier for the Cleveland offense. While having offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt calling plays is a fine alternative, head coach Kevin Stefanski was hired for the job for this organization in part because of his acumen at calling plays. Having Stefanski away from the team given COVID protocols is far from ideal. Losing Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio to COVID also hurts this Browns’ offense. Tackle Jack Conklin is also questionable with an unrelated illness. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has averaged only 165.0 passing YPG in his three starts in Pittsburgh with a low 70.6 Passer Rating while getting sacked 11 times — he needs all the help he can get. The Cleveland defense has been playing better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 17.0 PPG along with 338.3 YPG. The Browns' strategy will be to lean heavily on their ground game and out-physical their divisional rival. Cleveland has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total when avenging a narrow loss by a field goal or less. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (151) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (149) and the New Orleans Saints (150). THE SITUATION: Chicago (8-8) saw their three-game winning streak end last week with their 35-16 loss at Green Bay as a 4.5-point underdog. New Orleans (12-4) has won two games in a row with their 33-7 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Chicago has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Bears will likely try to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep Drew Brees off the field. They are averaging 144.2 rushing YPG since Week 12 which is the sixth-best mark in the NFL. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Chicago has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Saints have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Their win against the Panthers came on the heels of their 52-33 win against the Vikings — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after two straight wins by at least 14 points. While Brees gets most of the attention, the New Orleans’ defense has been quite good this year as they are holding their opponents to just 21.1 PPG along with 310.8 total YPG which ranks fourth and third-best in the league respectively. The Saints have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They also have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. New Orleans does expect to get running back Alvin Kamara back from COVID quarantine for this game. Even without him, they rushed for 156 yards against Carolina — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on November 1st when the Saints won in Chicago by a 26-23 score as a 5-point favorite. The Bears have played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge from a loss by 3 points or less. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (149) and the New Orleans Saints (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-4) has won two games in a row with their 33-7 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Chicago (8-8) saw their three-game winning streak end last week with their 35-16 loss at Green Bay as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should build off their momentum off a divisional game where I thought they might be vulnerable against an underdog playing the role of the spoiler. Instead, the Saints outclassed their NFC South rival who, like the Bears, were motivated by same-season revenge. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New Orleans is scoring 38.0 PPG in their last three games while averaging 405.0 Yards-Per-Game over that span. They return home where they are scoring 31.6 PPG. The Saints are also fourth in the league by allowing only 310.9 total YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago backed into the playoffs despite the loss to the Packers. They have been outgained by -13.5 net YPG this season. The Bears are not likely to respond with an inspired effort after their loss to Green Bay as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a double-digit loss at home. Mitchell Trubisky completed 33 of 42 passes for 252 yards in the losing effort — but he did throw an interception without a touchdown pass. Improved play from the offensive line has helped Trubisky to put up better numbers in this second stint as the Bears’ starting quarterback this season. But that game against the Packers was the first time this team played a playoff team since November 29th when they lost at home to Green Bay by a 41-26 score. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. In theory, the Bears’ defense is supposed to keep them in games — and their frontline numbers looked decent last week as they only gave up 316 yards to the Packers. But Chicago allowed Green Bay to average 7.34 Yards-Per-Play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Bears stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 8 games in the playoffs, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the total set in that 42.5 to 49 range. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (147) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (148). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-5) has won five games in a row with their 38-3 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite. Tennessee (11-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-38 win at Houston as a 7-point favorite as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: The Titans have been living dangerously in outlasting their opponents in high-scoring games. They generated 492 yards against the Texans while surrendering 457 yards along the way. But Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games including five of their last seven after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. But the Titans have given up 40 points along with 448 yards in their previous game against the Packers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last two contests. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a game where at least 70 points were scored. This team does not fare well relative to point spread expectations with the number high — they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games with the number at 49.5 or higher and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home with the Total at 49.5 or higher. Let’s fade the inferior defense in this game that lacks a pass rush and allows opponents to score 28.3 PPG along with 414.6 total YPG when playing at home — and they have allowed 445.0 YPG in their last three contests. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Over their last five games, they are averaging 37.2 PPG while converting 61.3% of their third-down opportunities. They stay on the road where they are scoring 29.3 PPG. This team is tough to beat when they get their ground game going — and they can rotate three running backs for fresh legs. Baltimore has rushed for at least 150 yards in five straight games after rolling up an incredible 404 yards last week against the Bengals. The Ravens have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in three straight games. Additionally, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games in the playoffs. Furthermore, the Ravens are 32-13-6 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record under head coach John Harbaugh — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: This is the most important game for this Baltimore franchise all year after getting upset against the Titans in the playoffs last year by a 28-12 score as a 10-point favorite. They blew their opportunity for revenge in November when they were upset at home against Tennessee by a 30-24 score in overtime as a 6-point favorite. The third installment in this trilogy moves to Nashville — and the road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. 10* NFL Baltimore-Tennessee ABC-TV Special with the Baltimore Ravens (147) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (147) and the Tennessee Titans (148). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-5) has won five games in a row with their 38-3 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite. Tennessee (11-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-38 win at Houston as a 7-point favorite as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Tennessee has also played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less in their last contest. This Titans’ offense is a juggernaut deploying the running game behind Derrick Henry that also sets up the play-action pass for Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee scores 30.7 PPG — and they are scoring 32.9 PPG at home. They are also scoring 33.7 PPG in their last three games. They generated 492 yards last week against the Titans — and they have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Tennessee has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. But the Titans defense cannot generate a pass rush — they gave up 457 yards to the Texans last week. Tennessee has then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and the Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after giving up 30 points in their last contest. Green Bay put up 40 points against them in their previous game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in two straight contests. The Titans give up 28.3 PPG along with 414.6 total YPG when playing at home — and they have allowed 445.0 YPG in their last three contests. They return home where the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 home games — and the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record on the road. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. After playing three straight Overs, the Ravens have played their last two games Under the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. Over their last five games, they are averaging 37.2 PPG while converting 61.3% of their third-down opportunities. They stay on the road where they are scoring 29.3 PPG. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 3 points — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 6 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and in their last 5 games when playing at home as a dog, all 5 games finished Over the Total. I think both teams score above 25 points in this game which should push the final score at least into the mid-50s. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (147) and the Tennessee Titans (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145) and the Washington Football Team (146). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (11-5) has won four games in a row after the crushed Atlanta last week by a 44-27 score as a 7.5-point favorite. Washington (7-9) has won five of their last seven games after their 20-14 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: After the Buccaneers’ offense hit rock bottom in a divisional game against New Orleans where they only scored a field goal, head coach Bruce Arians and Tom Brady retweaked things to better accommodate the veteran’s skill set. In the seven games since, Tampa Bay has scored at least 24 points in each of those games while averaging 34.6 PPG over that span. The Buccaneers have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Tampa Bay has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Bucs gained 485 yards last week against the Falcons, they have then played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay goes back on the road where they have played 24 of their last 33 road games Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a losing record at home. Washington defense has carried them this season — but they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Football Team has also played 8 of their last 11 home games Over the Total against team with a winning record on the road. Washington will not be playing a team tanking for a better draft pick this week — so the defense the surrendered 14 points in the first half to Jalen Hurts will have to play football for a full 60 minutes tonight. But the flip-side of that coin is that the Football Team will have to be more aggressive in their passing attack. Smith should find success against a vulnerable Tampa Bay pass defense that allows 247 passing YPG which is 21st in the league. The veteran is completing 66.7% of his passes which has helped Washington have team completion percentage of 64.7% — and the Buccaneers have played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams who complete at least 64% of their passes. Tampa Bay’s defense has surrendered at least 23 points in seven of their last nine games — if they do that again, we should get our Over.

FINAL TAKE: I think Washington’s defense slows down Brady — but the Football Team will be playing from behind and have to rely on Smith’s arm. That dynamic should lead to an Over. Tampa Bay has played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total against NFC foes — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total when favored. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145) and the Washington Football Team (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-9) has won five of their last seven games after their 20-14 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night as a 6.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (11-5) has won four games in a row after the crushed Atlanta last week by a 44-27 score as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: I am not a zombie blindly following these numbers — but Tom Brady has been underachieving in night games. Not only have the Buccaneers lost three of their four prime-time games but they have not covered the spread in all 4 games. Furthermore, Brady has not covered the point spread in 7 straight prime-time games going back to his New England days last season. Those numbers are not encouraging — and I do give even more stock into the fact that Tampa Bay lost five of their six games against teams that made the playoffs. Brady and head coach Bruce Arians just want to win — they don’t care about covering a point spread. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. They may due for an emotional letdown as well as they are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in their last two games as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Washington is a much better team with Alex Smith at quarterback — they have won five of the six games he has started this season. His numbers are not great — but I think he can move the team down the field if pressed to be more than a game manager not making mistakes. Smith should find success against a vulnerable Tampa Bay pass defense that allows 247 passing YPG which is 21st in the league. The Football Team has an outstanding defense that it is second in the NFL by allowing only 304.6 YPG. They have a great pass rush that fits the profile that has given Brady problems in the past in that they can rotate fresh bodies while generating pressure from a four-man front without relying on a blitz that takes away someone in pass coverage. Washington is sixth in the NFL with 47 sacks. In their last three games, the Football Team has only allowed 18.0 PPG along with just 266.0 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I love this situation for Washington who can play in their familiar building without any pressure. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. 25* NFL ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (145). THE SITUATION: THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-4) has won four games in a row with their 26-23 win at San Francisco as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (10-6) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 18-7 win against Arizona as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against an NFC West foe — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Seahawks are also 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread loss. Russell Wilson seems to be in a slump with the team scoring only 22.0 PPG in their last three games. But he did not suddenly forget how to play football — and the Seahawks were cruising into the playoffs in the second half of the season while intentionally working on improving their running game (which will help their defense). Yet Seattle remains a team that is scoring 29.6 PPG at home — and I have full faith in Wilson to continue to score points if the Rams are scoring in a competitive game. The Seahawks return home where they were 7-1 this season even without fans with an average winning margin of +9.1 net PPG. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games when favored by up to 7 points. In Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll, I trust in situations like this. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 7 games in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs, the Seahawks have covered the point spread 6  times. Whoever Los Angeles starts at quarterback, they will be at a significant disadvantage in comparison to Wilson. Jared Goff plays better at home — and he will not be close to 100% with screws in his throwing hand even if he plays. John Wolfed will be playing in his first playoff game if he takes the field. The former Wake Forest QB only completed 22 of his 38 passes last week against the Cardinals defense. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Los Angeles is scoring only 15.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 323.3 YPG in that stretch. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 55 road games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in Seattle. And while they will be looking to avenge their 20-9 loss in Seattle two weeks ago on December 27th, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 62 opportunities to avenge a loss. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (143) and the Seattle Seahawks (144). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-6) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 18-7 win against Arizona as a 1-point favorite. Seattle (12-4) has won four games in a row with their 26-23 win at San Francisco as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win at home over an AFC North foe. This is a bit contrarian play with the number dropping into the 42 range. Los Angeles has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Unders. Granted, the Rams are averaging only 15.7 PPG in their last three games — and head coach Sean McVay has not committed to a starting quarterback with Jared Goff getting screws in his throwing hand and John Wolford having no experience in the playoffs. But the offense is getting healthier around these quarterbacks with left tackle Andrew Whitworth and wide receiver Cooper Krupp expected back on the field for this one and rookie running back Cam Akers established their lead running back. McVay seems to like Wolford — he can make some throws that Goff is not great at executing. The Rams are scoring 25.8 PPG on the road — and their pass attack is predicated on their play-action from their rushing attack being credible which should be the case in this game. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Rams have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as a dog. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win over a divisional rival — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a narrow win by a field goal or less. The Seahawks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they won but did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Russell Wilson seems to be in a slump with the team scoring only 22.0 PPG in their last three games. But he did not suddenly forget how to play football — and the Seahawks were cruising into the playoffs in the second half of the season while intentionally working on improving their running game (which will help their defense). Yet Seattle remains a team that is scoring 29.6 PPG at home — and I have full faith in Wilson to continue to score points if the Rams are scoring in a competitive game. The Seahawks are dealing with injuries on defense including Jamal Adams dealing with a shoulder. Their win over the 49ers did finish Over the Total — and they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in January — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the playoffs. These teams did just play to a 20-9 score two weeks ago — and their first meeting this season finished Under the Total with the Rams’ 23-16 win. I think this one goes Over — with both teams scoring at least 20 points. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (143) and the Seattle Seahawks (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (141) and the Buffalo Bills (142). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-5) has won four of their last five games after their 28-14 win against Jacksonville last Sunday as a 15.5-point favorite. Buffalo (13-3) has won six games in a row with their 56-26 upset win against Miami as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Indianapolis generated 437 yards of offense against the Jaguars in the win — and they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Led by the veteran Philip Rivers under center, the Colts are scoring 28.2 PPG — and this offensive prowess travels on the road where Indy is scoring 28.9 PPG while averaging 378.8 YPG. Indianapolis has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road. Running back Jonathan Taylor peaking just in time for the playoffs. The former Wisconsin Badger ran the ball 30 times for 253 yards with two touchdowns in the Colts’ win against the Jaguars. Over his last six games, Taylor has rushed for 741 yards with a 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry average along with seven touchdowns. But the Indianapolis defense has been vulnerable against good passing attacks in their last five games. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 70% of their passes while averaging 311 passing YPG in those last five games. Enter the Buffalo offense that leads the NFL by scoring 38.2 PPG since Week 12. Quarterback Josh Allen is completing 70% of his passes over his last five games with 15 touchdown passes while averaging over 300 YPG and posting a QBR of 117. The Over is 10-2-1 in the Bills’ last 13 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games after a point spread victory. Buffalo tore up the good Dolphins’ defense for 455 yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bills did surrender 454 yards to Miami — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Buffalo allows their visitor to average 376.4 YGP.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 5-2-1 in the Bills’ last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and Indianapolis has played 5 straight games Over the Total against a team with a winning record. Expect a higher-scoring game. 10* NFL Indianapolis-Buffalo CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (141) and the Buffalo Bills (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-5) has won four of their last five games after their 28-14 win against Jacksonville last Sunday as a 15.5-point favorite. Buffalo (13-3) has won six games in a row with their 56-26 upset win against Miami as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills have been a freight-train in the second half of the season with all six of their victories being by double-digits. Quarterback Josh Allen has taken his game to the next level — fueled by a rigorous offseason program motivated by his embarrassing performance in the playoffs last year. But I expect things to become more difficult for Buffalo — especially against this Indianapolis team that can deploy the strategy that has given them the biggest problems this season. The Bills are small upfront on defense after losing some important players from last season that were then magnified when defensive tackle Star Lotulelei opted-out this season. Buffalo is allowing opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is 26th in the league. In their three losses this season, the Bills were torched on the ground. Tennessee ran the ball 34 times for 139 yards while also using the commitment to their ground game to set up play-action passes in their 42-16 thrashing of Buffalo. Kansas City ran the ball 46 times for 245 yards in their 26-17 victory over the Bills. And Arizona ran the ball 35 times for 257 yards in a 32-30 upset victory that ended with that Hail Mary touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins. Indy can deploy a similar strategy with rookie running back Jonathan Taylor peaking just in time for the playoffs. The former Wisconsin Badger ran the ball 30 times for 253 yards with two touchdowns in the Colts’ win against the Jaguars. Over his last six games, Taylor has rushed for 741 yards with a 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry average along with seven touchdowns. As it is, Buffalo looks primed for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after winning four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning five in a row. And while the Bills were underdogs against the Dolphins because they had little at stake last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win at home by at least two touchdowns. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after a double-digit win over an AFC East foe. Additionally, while the Bills are 7-1 at home, they are being outgained by -18.3 net YPG in those games. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win over an AFC South rival — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a double-digit win over a divisional rival. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Furthermore, Indy has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is averaging 396.4 YPG — but Indy has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams who average at least 350 YPG. The Bills are banged up at wide receiver Stefan Diggs probable but dealing with an oblique and Cole Beasley questionable with a knee. Allen needs both at peak effectiveness. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (101) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-9) has lost two straight games with their 20-13 loss to Carolina as a 1-point underdog. Philadelphia (4-10-1) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven games after their 37-17 upset loss at Dallas as a 3-point underdog. Washington must win this game to win the NFC East and make the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM MINUS THE POINTS: My initial thoughts on this game earlier this week was that the home dog tonight would be intriguing against this Washington team that must win this game to make the playoffs. But I hate this situation for the Eagles. Philadelphia declared nine players out yesterday — and this list includes running back Miles Sanders, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, and tight end Dallas Goedert no offense. The Eagles are simply getting very thin when it comes to injuries their skill position and offensive line units. The losses on defense are just as significant with defensive linemen Fletcher Cox and Derek Barnett out along with linebacker Duke Riley. There goes the potent Philly pass rush. What will the morale be for this team at this point? Sure, they want to play the role of the spoiler. But defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz declaring he plans on taking next year off (and leave the team) sends a strange message. So too does the rumors that head coach Doug Pederson will be retained for next season — OK, but does that take him off the hook for this game? The nine players declared out combined with cornerback Jalen Mills being on the COVID list and the 14 other players this season they have lost — this is beginning to look like the junior varsity. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has played quite well in his first three starts at quarterback — he led the Philly offense to 477 total yards last week. But expect head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington defensive staff to have a good game plan against Hurts. It is usually about three games worth of tape in the NFL before opposing defenses begin to get a good book on quarterbacks to design more effective schemes. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC East foes. Washington has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional foes. They gained 386 yards last week in the loss to the Panthers — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. It does look like it will be Alex Smith back under center for this game with his taking part in a limited practice on Friday after missing the last two games with a calf injury. This team also looks to get back running back Antonio Gibson and wide receiver Terry McLaurin. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Look for a conservative game plan that limits mistakes and leans heavily on the Football Team’s outstanding defense that ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 310.5 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: I expect an inspired effort from the Football Team. Sure, they need the win to make the playoffs. But with Smith’s comeback from his gruesome leg injury along with Rivera getting cancer treatments during the season, I just think there is a different resolve for this team. And Rivera dared to dump the apparent dead weight that was Dwayne Haskins — I think the locker room will appreciate no longer coddling the former top draft pick. Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing in Philadelphia. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Football Team (101) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-9) has lost two straight games with their 20-13 loss to Carolina as a 1-point underdog. Philadelphia (4-10-1) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven games after their 37-17 upset loss at Dallas as a 3-point underdog. Washington must win this game to win the NFC East and make the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles declared nine players out yesterday — and this list includes running back Miles Sanders, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, and tight end Dallas Goedert. Philadelphia is getting very thin when it comes to injuries their skill position and offensive line units. They have played 9 straight games Under the Total when playing at home after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has played quite well in his first three starts at quarterback — he led the Philly offense to 477 total yards last week. But the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Expect head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington defensive staff to have a good game plan against Hurts. It is usually about three games worth of tape in the NFL before opposing defenses begin to get a good book on quarterbacks to design more effective schemes. The Philly defense also gave up 513 yards to the Cowboys last week — but they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They return home where they hold their guests to just 23.4 PPG along with 336.3 YPG. The Eagles have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Football Team has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Washington has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Football Team has managed only 15 and 13 points in their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. Washington did gain 386 yards last week but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. It does look like it will be Alex Smith back under center for this game with his taking part in a limited practice on Friday after missing the last two games with a calf injury. With second-year QB Dwayne Haskins cut earlier this week, it will be Taylor Heinicke as the backup quarterback if Smith gets re-injured. Look for a conservative game plan that limits mistakes and leans heavily on the Football Team’s outstanding defense that ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 310.5 total YPG. Washington is scoring only 17.0 PPG while averaging 310.7 YPG in their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a favorite. They upset the Eagles by a 27-17 score as a 5.5-point favorite on September 3rd - and Philly has played 3 straight games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (113). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-10) snapped a three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 20-13 win at Washington as a 1-point favorite. New Orleans (11-4) ended a two-game losing streak with their 52-33 win against Minnesota as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Rookie head coach Matt Rhule has said he will play his starters in this game as he tries to instill a winning culture with his program. Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road. And while that game flew Under the 41.5 point total, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Panthers did surrender 386 yards in that game while being outgained by -106 net yards. But Carolina has then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games at home after being outgained by at least 100 yards in their last game. The Panthers are dangerous underdogs who have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when getting the points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when at least 50 combined points were scored. The Saints took a terrible blow to their offense with the news that Alvin Kamara tested positive for COVID. The offense is already without their top wide receiver, Michael Thomas. And Drew Brees has not been the same after returning from his broken ribs injury. He is completing only 56% of his passes with a Passer Rating of 83 since getting back on the field. It is not only Kamara but the entire running back department that is out for this game given tracing protocols — so it will not be Latavious Murray who running the football. Instead, it will be practice squad running backs and Taysom Hill supporting Brees in the backfield. They did outrush the Vikings by +174 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 150 yards in their last game. The Saints’ defense has taken a step back as of late as well — they have allowed 55 combined points in their last two games. New Orleans has also allowed their last three opponents to average 171 rushing YPG. In those three games, the Saints allowed 29.7 PPG along with 396.0 total YPG. They allowed 274 passing yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will be looking to play spoiler for the Saints’ attempt to earn the top-seed in the NFC playoffs. They are also motivated to avenge a 27-24 loss at New Orleans on October 25th as a 7-point favorite. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Saints. 20* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (103) and the Indianapolis Colts (104). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (1-14) lost their fourteenth straight game this season with their 41-17 loss to Chicago as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-24 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars’ soft-tanking job consists of somehow deciding Mike Glennon is a better choice to be their quarterback than Gardner Minshew. Sure, if the goal is to never score enough points to threaten to win a second game this season. Jacksonville has scored 41 combined points in their last three games while never topping 17 points in those three contests. They are averaging only 300.0 YPG in those games. To make matters worse this week, running back James Robinson and wide receiver D.J. Chark are out with injuries. The Jaguars defense is a mess — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while Jacksonville has played two straight Overs, they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing an Over — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road after playing two straight Overs. The Jags have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Additionally, Jacksonville has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in January. Indianapolis has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Colts’ offense has taken a massive blow with left tackle Anthony Castonzo who went on Injured Reserve this week with a knee injury. The strength of the Indianapolis offense is their line with Castonzo being the key member. Indianapolis still has a strong defense that is 8th in the NFL by allowing only 335.3 YPG. The Colts return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have played 20 of their last 28 home games Under the Total in the last two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Indianapolis. With Buffalo beating Miami, it looks like the Colts will already be in the playoffs before this game kicks off — and that may come to head coach Frank Reich to bench Philip Rivers and other key starters on offense. Indy will likely run and grind their way to victory. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (103) and the Indianapolis Colts (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (123) and the Buffalo Bills (124). THE SITUATION: Miami (10-5) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 26-25 win in Las Vegas last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Buffalo (12-3) has won five games in a row after their 38-9 win at New England on Monday as a 7-point favorite. The Bills have won the AFC East — and they clinch the second seed in the AFC playoffs with a win. The Dolphins make the playoffs as a wildcard with a victory

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The rub with the Buffalo is that they also clinch the second seed if Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland as a double-digit underdog because they are resting starters including Big Ben Roethlisberger. Head coach Sean McDermott has not indicated how long he will play his starters — but he will likely scoreboard watch and best Josh Allen, et al if the Browns take control of that game. As it is, the Bills have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Their defense is playing much better as of late as they have not allowed more than 20 points in four of their last five games — and over their last three games, they have given up just 14.3 PPG along with 226.7 total YPG. They held the Patriots to just 56 passing yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a two-game road trip. Furthermore, Buffalo has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as a dog. Miami has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as an underdog. The Dolphins gained 383 yards in that game — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. 182 those yards were from Ryan Fitzpatrick who is out of this game because of COVID. Fitzpatrick averages 232.8 passing YPG with a 7.8 Yards-Per-Attempt average — but Tua Tagovailoa is averaging only 161.4 passing YPG with a 6.3 YPA mark when he is the starter. Miami averages only 323.1 YPG when playing on the road. But the Dolphins are built on defense as they hold their opponents to just 18.8 PPG. They did give up 418 yards to the Raiders — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 17 of their last 25 road games when laying the points.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. They look to avenge a 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo on September 20th — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (123) and the Buffalo Bills (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost three straight games after their 27-13 loss at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (6-9) has won three straight games with their 37-17 upset win at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog. The winner of this game puts themselves in position to make the playoffs from winning the NFC East if Washington loses on Sunday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): New York has lost three straight games — but they have all been against good teams looking to qualify for the playoffs in Arizona, Cleveland and then the Ravens last week. And while Daniel Jones was at his best this season before his hamstring injury since he was a threat with his legs, he still has been solid in the passing game since his return. He completed 25 of 41 passes for 252 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions last week — and he has not thrown an interception in five straight games. I thought the Giants were perhaps overvalued during their four-game winning streak in the second-half of the season — but they are being too quickly dismissed now. This is a gritty team under first-year head coach Joe Judge that plays solid fundamental football. They should play their best game in a month this afternoon. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. They fell behind at halftime by a 20-3 score to the Ravens after falling behind by a 13-3 score at halftime to Cleveland the week before — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after trailing by double-digits at halftime in two straight games. Additionally, New Giants have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Look for the New York offense to center around Wayne Gallman who has rushed for 617 yards in place of the injured Saquon Barkley. He will be going against the worst run defense in the league that allows 161.1 rushing YPG this season. Facing the Cowboys may be just what the doctor ordered after this difficult stretch of games as the Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in January. And in their last 10 games as an underdog, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Dallas is the toast of the town — again — right now with three straight wins including the last two as upset victories over the 49ers and then the Eagles last week. Their victory over the Bengals started the winning streak — but the Cowboys have not beaten a team with a winning record over this stretch. Don’t be surprised if and when Dallas disappoints yet again after playing themselves back into the playoff picture. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Dallas offense has found a rhythm as of late with Andy Dalton under center as they have scored at least 30 points in three straight games. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. They generated 513 yards again the Eagles’ defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Cowboys have up 477 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road in January. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread 16 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last six situations.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. They did defeat the Giants at home on October 11th by a 37-34 score as a 7.5-point favorite — but New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). THE SITUATION: New England (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 22-12 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite at the kickoff of that game. Buffalo (11-3) has won four straight games with their 48-19 win at Denver last Saturday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills are the trendy team many observers are tabbing as the best team in the NFL as they ride their four-game winning streak while paying off bettors in six straight weeks. But these are the circumstances that could lead to an emotional letdown for this team — especially after an easy 29-point victory against a Broncos team with almost their entire secondary wiped out by injury. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win on the road by at least three touchdowns. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after they won at least four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in six straight games. Despite their 11 wins this season, Buffalo is only outgaining their opponents by +30.7 net YPG. They have won five of their six games decided by one scoring possession. This team now plays on Monday Night Football where they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. The Bills are also 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against AFC East foes. New England has rebounded to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after an upset loss by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after an upset loss by at least 10 points as a road favorite. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Patriots return home where they are 4-2 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. New England should stay competitive in this game because of their defense — they limit their visitors to just 19.3. They have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG along with 319.7 YPG. They held the Dolphins to just 133 passing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Remember, the Patriots have won their last two games at home against Baltimore and Arizona who are looking to make the playoffs this weekend. They are 38-13-3 ATS  in their last 54 games as an underdog under Bill Belichick — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home as an underdog. New England has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games in the final two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Belichick has been coy about who his starting quarterback will be tonight — but I do expect his team to revel in the opportunity to play the role of the spoiler. The Patriots lost the first meeting between these two teams on November 1st by a 24-21 score — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games when avenging a loss by a field goal or less. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (482) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New England Patriots (482). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (11-3) has won four straight games with their 48-19 win at Denver last Saturday as a 6-point favorite. New England (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 22-12 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite at the kickoff of that game.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. New England has also played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Patriots’ offense is sputtering with mediocre quarterback play combining with a lack of talent at the skill positions. They are generating just 271.3 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 20.0 PPG. Head coach Bill Belichick has been coy this week about who his starting quarterback will be as he may use these final two games to let Jarett Stidham audition for the job next season now that they have been eliminated from the playoffs. Stidham is completing just 54.5% of his passes in limited action this season while lacking the mobility of Newton. New England has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Patriots have played six straight games Under the Total, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. New England is playing well on defense — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG along with 319.7 YPG. They did give up 383 yards to the Dolphins last week but they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Patriots return home where they holding their guests to just 19.3 PPG. New England has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing two in a row away from home. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Patriots have also played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. Buffalo has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Bills have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Buffalo held the Broncos to just 255 yards of offense including only 115 yards in the air. The Bills have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Buffalo has steadily improved their play on defense after seeing some significant turnover from that unit from last season. They have held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with 293.7 total YPG. Head coach Sean McDermott is making things easier on his defense by leaning more on their running game. The Bills are second in the NFL in passing but just 21st in rushing YPG. But Zack Moss rushed for 81 yards last week which was a season-high for the former Utah running back. Look for Buffalo to use this game to continue to develop and fine-tune their ground game as they prepare to make a deep playoff run — and this commitment to running the football will burn time off the clock to help our Under. The Bills have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49.5 range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road with the total in that 42.5 to 49.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo won the first meeting between these two teams by a 24-21 score on November 1st. New England has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New England Patriots (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (480) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (479). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-3) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven with their 24-16 win over Carolina as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (10-4) has won four of their last five games with their 46-25 win over Detroit last Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. The Packers won this game despite Aaron Rodgers passing for just 143 yards. He was efficient — he completed 20 of 29 passes. And he was supported by an effective rushing attack that generated 195 yards on 27 carries. These are good signs for this game as the Packers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a game where they did not pass for at least 150 yards. They stay at home where they are 6-1 this season with an average winning margin of +10.1 net PPG. They are also outgaining their visitors by +86.1 net YPG. The Green Bay defense is playing better as the season moves on as they have held their last three opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with 311.7 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 65 home games after winning at least five or six of their last seven games. And while they have not covered the point spread in four of the last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games at Lambeau after only covering the point spread once or twice in their last six games. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after playing a game at home where both teams scored at least 24 points. And while they raced out to a 24-15 lead in the first half last week against the Lions, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against Detroit last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games after a turnover margin of +3 or better in their last game. The Titans lack a pass rush — even when their supposed specialist, Jadeveon Clowney was not on Injured Reserve. When Tennessee takes the lead, their opponents can keep scoring relying on their passing attack. The Titans are 29th in the NFL by allowing 276 passing YPG — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 66% of their passes against their defense. Tennessee is 27th in the league by allowing 390.5 total YPG — and they are giving up 414.0 YPG over their last three contests. Now Tennessee goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (480) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (479) and the Green Bay Packers (480). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-4) has won four of their last five games with their 46-25 win over Detroit last Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite. Green Bay (11-3) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven with their 24-16 win over Carolina as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have scored at least 30 points in five straight games while averaging a robust 37.4 PPG over that stretch. Yet the Tennessee defense has allowed at least 24 points in five of their last six games. The Titans lack a pass rush — even when their supposed specialist, Jadeveon Clowney was not on Injured Reserve. When Tennessee takes the lead, their opponents are able to keep scoring relying on their passing attack. The Titans are 29th in the NFL by allowing 276 passing YPG — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 66% of their passes against their defense. Tennessee is 27th in the league by allowing 390.5 total YPG — and they are giving up 414.0 YPG over their last three contests. The Over is 18-7-1 in the Titans’ last 26 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Titans ran for 195 yards led by Derrick Henry’s 147 yards, they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Henry’s rushing sets up Ryan Tannehill’s play-action passing — there is a reason that Tennessee is scoring 31.1 PPG. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road. Green Bay is scoring 31.0 PPG themselves. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Packers have played three straight Unders, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. Their 24 points scored last week was the first time in their last five games where they did not score at least 30 points. Once Green Bay gets rolling with Aaron Rodgers under center, they are happy to engage in scoring contests if necessary. The Packers have played 19 of their last 27 home games Over the Total after winning at least four in a row. Furthermore, Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while it might snow tonight at Lambeau Field, Rodgers has thrown 99 touchdown passes in his 43 games played inclement weather at home in Green Bay.

FINAL TAKE: Bad weather will also likely play right into the hands of Henry and the Titans’ play-action game — so I see the potential for snow as a net-plus regarding this Over play. Tennessee has played 5 straight games Over the Total as an underdog and 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played in December, the game finished Over the Total 8 times. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (479) and the Green Bay Packers (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

A 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). THE SITUATION: Carolina (4-10) has lost three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 24-16 loss at Green Bay last Saturday as a 9.5-point underdog. Washington (6-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-15 loss at home to Seattle.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The news that Alex Smith would be out for the Football Team leaving Dwayne Haskins as their starting quarterback is enough to push the Panthers from a 10*/20* range to a strong 25* play. Carolina is underrated. They have been in a position to win or tie the game in the fourth quarter in all eight of their losses — and they are a frustrating 2-8 in games decided by one scoring possession. Despite their record, the Panthers are only being outgained by -2.3 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle by just -1.7 net YPG in their seven road games. Despite losing three in a row, they have outgained their opponents by +21.6 net YPG after dominating the Packers last Saturday in that department by a 364 to 291 yardage margin. These are the underlying numbers of a team that would usually be 7-7. In an expected close game that will likely be decided in the fourth quarter, I will take Teddy Bridgewater over Haskins. The veteran is completing 69.8% of his passes for 3360 yards this season. Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they trailed at halftime last week by a 21-3 score, the Panthers have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Football Team gave up 181 rushing yards to the Seahawks last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Haskins completed 38 of 55 passes for 295 yards last week — but he also threw two interceptions. He is completing only 62.9% of his passes this season with just a 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has five interceptions along with five touchdown passes. He also seems to have completely lost the confidence of the coaching staff and teammates. Remember, he was relegated to the third-string quarterback early in the season — he is starting this game only because of injuries to Smith and Kyle Allen. Haskins breaking COVID protocols by visiting an adult establishment last week does not inspire confidence about his leadership skills. The announcement that Smith cannot play was likely demoralizing for this team fighting for a playoff spot. The Football Team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will be doubly motivated — not only to play the role of spoiler to Washington’s playoff hopes but in facing their former coach in Ron Rivera. While Rivera was well-liked, facing their old coach should ensure a spring in the steps of this Panthers team. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-3) is reeling with three straight losses after their embarrassing 27-17 upset loss at Cincinnati on Monday as a 14.5-point favorite. Indianapolis (10-4) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 27-20 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: We had the Bengals as out AFC North Game of the Year — so I am well aware of the problems of this Steelers’ team right now. They are decimated by injuries at linebacker and their offensive line is beat-up. And Big Ben Roethlisberger looks old and cannot deliver the ball down the field. Got it. But this a good buy-low spot for Pittsburgh. Part of the problem with the Bengals’ game was that the Steelers were taking them lightly while it was the de-facto Super Bowl for Cincinnati. Pittsburgh did play better in the second half of that game but could not rally from the 17-0 hole they dug themselves at halftime. The Steelers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games at home after an upset loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional foe. Part of the problem for Pittsburgh has been their lack of running game — their 86 rushing yards last week were the most they generated in their last four contests. But the Steelers have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in three straight games. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. Pittsburgh does expect a healthier James Connor for this game which should help them get their ground game going again. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. And while the Colts have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. Indianapolis defeated the Texans last week despite being outgained by -75 net yards after surrendering 42 yards. The Colts gave up 362 passing yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. And while Indy has not allowed more than 90 rushing yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing 100 or more rushing yards in at least three straight games. The Colts’ defense has taken a step back as of late as they have allowed their last three opponents to average 415.7 total YPG. Indy is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC opponents. Look for a desperate and angry Steelers team to play their best game in a month. 20* NFL Indianapolis-Pittsburgh CBS-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (462) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (461). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (7-7) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 30-27 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite. Miami (9-5) has won three of their last four games with their 22-12 upset win against New England that closed with them being a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins are due for an emotional letdown after defeating Bill Belichick and his Patriots. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset victory as a home dog against a divisional rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after pulling an upset against an AFC East foe. The Dolphins got a surprising rushing effort from undrafted rookie Salvon Ahmed who ran for 122 yards while leading an attack that generated 250 yards on the ground. But Miami has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. And while rookie Tua Tagovailoa completed 20 of 26 passes, it was for only 145 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not passing for more than 150 yards. This team is living off forcing turnovers — they lead the NFL with 26 takeaways. But turnovers are fickle — and if they dry up, the Dolphins are a team that has to win games despite being outgained by -30.5 net YPG. On the road, it is even worse as Miami is being outgained by -36.0 net YPG. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Las Vegas has likely played themselves out of the playoffs — but they can still play the role of spoiler. Despite the losing streak, they have outgained their last three opponents by +26.4 net YPG. The Raiders allowed 402 yards to the Chargers in that heartbreaking loss last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 402 yards in their last game. Derek Carr is available to play in this game after leaving the game last week with a groin injury. Marcus Mariota was impressive in relief as he completed 17 of 28 passes for 226 yards while adding another 88 yards on the ground. But it is the running game that will be key for the Raiders in this game. They rushed for 173 yards against the Chargers — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They also outrushed LA by 77 net yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 75 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The pressure is off the Raiders given their recent slide — but they can make things difficult for Miami who is not used to playing games with playoff implications. The Dolphins control their fate to claim the final wildcard spot in the AFC — but a loss would put Baltimore back in play to take their spot. 25* NFL Bailout Game of the Month with the Las Vegas Raiders (462) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (459) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (460). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-9) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 41-33 upset loss at Dallas as a 4-point favorite. Arizona (8-6) has won their last two games with their 33-26 win against Philadelphia last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: San Francisco has suffered three straight upset losses to eliminate them from the playoff race. The reigning NFC champions have simply been ravaged by injuries. Yet they can play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a divisional rival. They have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. The Niners have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after an upset loss on the road as the favorite. The 49ers’ defense is playing pretty well — hey are allowing only 311.0 net YPG in their last three games while holding their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG. Third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard will be under center given injuries to Jimmy Garappolo and Nick Mullens. This is his first start since 2018 — but he does have ten professional starts under his belt. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in the last 10 road games as an underdog, the Niners have covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games after a win at home. And while Kyler Murray completed 27 of 36 passes for 406 yards last week against the Eagles, the Cardinals have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona gained 526 yards against the Eagles after gaining 390 yards against the New York Giants in their previous game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (459) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (459) and the Arizona Cardinals (460). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-9) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 41-33 upset loss at Dallas as a 4-point favorite. Arizona (8-6) has won their last two games with their 33-26 win against Philadelphia last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing three games in a row. The Under is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Turnovers are killing head coach Mike Shanahan’s team. The Niners have lost the turnover battle in three straight games while being burdened with a -2 or wore net turnover margin in two straight games. San Francisco has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least three games with a -1 or worse net turnover margin — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing two straight games with a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard will be under center given injuries to Jimmy Garappolo and Nick Mullens. This is his first start since 2018. Look for Shanahan to commit to running the football to take some pressure off the former Iowa quarterback. San Francisco needs to limit turnovers since their defense is playing well. They are allowing only 311.0 net YPG in their last three games — and they hold their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Niners’ last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The 49ers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a road underdog. Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home. And while Kyler Murray completed 27 of 36 passes for 406 yards last week against the Eagles, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona tallied 526 total yards against Philly but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Cards’ defense gave up 305 yards to Jalen Hurts in the win — but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 games against fellow NFC West foes. Arizona won the first meeting between these two teams by a 26-20 score. Expect a similar result. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (459) and the Arizona Cardinals (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (451) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (452). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-8) has lost two games in a row with their 33-27 loss to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (10-4) has lost two games in a row after their 32-29 loss to Kansas City as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two games in a row. Head coach Mike Zimmer’s team has started slow in both losses as they trailed the Bears by a 20-10 score at halftime last week after being behind to Tampa Bay by a 17-6 halftime score in their previous game. But the Vikings have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after trailing by double-digits at halftime in two straight contests. Additionally, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss to an NFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home after a point spread loss. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 home games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, the Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 56 home games in the final four weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 10* NFL Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Vikings (451) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (451) and the New Orleans Saints (452). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-8) has lost two games in a row with their 33-27 loss to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (10-4) has lost two games in a row after their 32-29 loss to Kansas City as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset loss. Minnesota did gain 397 yards in the loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Kirk Cousins has been a turnover machine being responsible for 18 giveaways including his 13 interceptions which is tied for the second-most in the NFL. But he is leading an offense that has scored at least 27 points in four of their last five games. Yet the depleted Vikings’ defense has allowed at least 24 points in four of their last five contests. Minnesota is running out of linebackers. Both Eric Kendricks and Troy Dye are out for this game while Todd Davis is doubtful. Anthony Barr is already out the season — as is defensive end Danielle Hunter. The Vikings were already allowing 27.7 PPG to the dismay of head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against NFC opponents. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Drew Brees was rusty in his first game back on the field after missing four straight games with his rib injuries — but he played better as that game went on by leading his team to 20 points in the second half. New Orleans was outgained by -126 net yards but they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after being outgained by at least -100 yards in their last game. The Saints’ defense has surrendered at least 179 yards in two straight games — and they have played 4 of their last  5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total. With Brees starting under center, the Saints have scored at least 24 points in all ten of his games — and they have scored at least 27 points in eight of those contests. And outside of a five-game stretch from November 8th through December 6th where the New Orleans’ defense allowed just 44 combined points, they allowed at least 23 points in each of their remaining nine games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Expect New Orleans to at least reach their 28.4 PPG scoring average against this injury-ravaged Vikings’ defense with Cousins scoring enough points to keep it interesting. 25* NFL Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (451) and the New Orleans Saints (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (369) and the Cincinnati Bengals (370). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-2) has lost two games in a row with their 26-13 loss at Buffalo last Sunday night as a 2-point underdog. Cincinnati (2-10-1) has lost five games in a row after their 30-7 loss at home to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up right now. He denies he has a knee issue but he lacks any ability to move in the pocket and he is having difficulty planting his foot for deeper balls. Pittsburgh is limited to mostly quick passes which Roethlisberger is still good at. However, when opposing defenses can key-in on these quick strikes and lay off worrying too much about deep balls, then this approach can get stuck in the mud. The Steelers have not scored more than 19 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh is averaging only 294.7 total YPG during that stretch after managing only 224 yards last week against the Bills. They have played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. To compound matters, the Steelers are getting very little from their running game. They have run for only 136 combined yards in their last three games. Pittsburgh has not rushed for more than 48 yards in five of their last seven games. James Conner has been injured but he ran the ball only ten times for 17 yards in his return to action last week. He is questionable tonight with the quad injury that has slowed him down. The Steelers have not rushed for more than 68 yards in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after not rushing for at least 100 yards in three straight games. Additionally, Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 13 road games Under the Total — and they have played 21 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Steelers have also played 25 of their last 30 road games Under the Total when favored. Cincinnati has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Bengals are down to their third-string quarterback tonight with Ryan Finley with Joe Burrow out the season and then Brandon Allen being declared out tonight with a knee injury. Finley has plenty of NFL experience — he has thrown 106 passes in the regular season for 549 yards with two touchdown passes. Yet he is averaging only 5.2 Yards-Per-Attempt and completing just 48.1% of his passes. He takes over an offense that has not scored more than 17 points in five straight games while averaging just 10.3 PPG along with 220.0 total YPG in their last three contests. Finley is going to struggle against the Steel Curtain defense that is allowing only 18.2 PPG along with 303.1 total YPG this season. The Bengals have seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a double-digit dog.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati is looking to avenge a 36-10 loss at Pittsburgh on November 15th — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 21 points. The Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams — and these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 encounters in Cincinnati Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (369) and the Cincinnati Bengals (370). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-10-1) has lost five games in a row after their 30-7 loss at home to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Pittsburgh (11-2) has lost two games in a row with their 26-13 loss at Buffalo last Sunday night as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a good opportunity to offer the reminder that we don’t bet on teams — we bet on point spreads. The Steelers are in no position to be a favorite of around two touchdowns to anybody right now. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games as a double-digit favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up right now. He denies he has a knee issue but he lacks any ability to move in the pocket and he is having difficulty planting his foot for deeper balls. Pittsburgh is limited to mostly quick passes which Roethlisberger is still good at. However, when opposing defenses can key-in on these quick strikes and lay off worrying too much about deep balls, then this approach can get stuck in the mud. The Steelers have not scored more than 19 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh is averaging only 294.7 total YPG during that stretch. To compound matters, the Steelers are getting very little from their running game. They have run for only 136 combined yards in their last three games. Pittsburgh has not rushed for more than 48 yards in five of their last seven games. James Conner has been injured but he ran the ball only ten times for 17 yards in his return to action last week. He is questionable tonight with the quad injury that has slowed him down. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. And while these problems on offense has contributed to them playing four straight Unders, Pittsburgh has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing four straight Unders. Furthermore, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games in December, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. Cincinnati should play well after their embarrassing effort at home. Not only have the Bengals covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. Cincinnati has been pretty sneaky good at home this season before laying an egg against the Cowboys in that Andy Dalton revenge game. The Bengals have a 2-point loss to New England and a 3-point loss to Cleveland at home — and their two wins against Tennessee and Tennessee were at home. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. They are down to their third-string quarterback tonight with Ryan Finley with Joe Burrow out the season and then Brandon Allen being declared out tonight with a knee injury. Finley has plenty of NFL experience — he has thrown 106 passes in the regular season for 549 yards with two touchdown passes. Finley cannot be much worse than Allen as the Bengals have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than 17 points in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati will be looking to avenge a 36-10 loss at Pittsburgh on November 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (362) and the Cleveland Browns (361). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (9-4) comes off their dramatic 47-42 loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football as a 3-point underdog. New York (5-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 26-7 loss to Arizona as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: New York has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight games Under the Total. The Giants have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. And while New York allowed 231 rushing yards in that game, they have then played 38 of their last 56 games Over the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants only rushed for 78 yards in that game after topping 100 rushing yards in their previous seven straight games. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in their last game. Daniel Jones was back under center last week but he might have been rushed back on the field with his hamstring injury. Jones has been a threat with his legs but that injury left him immobile in the pocket — he was sacked six times. The veteran Colt McCoy will be the starter again tonight after he was the starter two weeks ago when the Giants upset Seattle on the road. New York has also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing in December. Cleveland has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Browns gained 493 yards against the Ravens, they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Cleveland has scored at least 40 points in two straight games — but they have given up 107 combined points in their last three games. The Browns have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They go on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. With both these teams facing playoff implications for this game, expect the scoring to push the combined number above the number. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the New York Giants (362) and the Cleveland Browns (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 26-7 loss to Arizona as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (9-4) comes off their dramatic 47-42 loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has plenty to play for in this game with a victory giving them a tie for first place in the NFC East after Washington lost to Seattle this afternoon. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New York has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. And while the Giants managed only 159 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Daniel Jones was back under center last week but he might have been rushed back on the field with his hamstring injury. Jones has been a threat with his legs but that injury left him immobile in the pocket — he was sacked six times. The veteran Colt McCoy will be starter again tonight after he was the starter two weeks ago when the Giants upset Seattle on the road. The New York defense has been the catalyst to their improved play. They have held their last three opponents to jut 18.3 PPG along with 290.7 total YPG. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Cleveland is vulnerable to being satisfied with their competitive loss to the Ravens on Monday — this is a group that too often makes their own announcement as to just how good they are. Yet the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they are just 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games after a straight-up loss. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Despite their 9-4 record, the Browns are being outscored by -1.5 PPG. They go on the road where they are being outgained by -24.2 net YPG while being outscored by -6.9 PPG despite their 4-2 record. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Cleveland may win this game — but this should be a close game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (366) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (365). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (10-3) looks to rebound from their 24-21 upset loss at Philadelphia last week as a 7.5-point favorite. Kansas City (12-1) looks to build off their 33-27 win at Miami last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should respond with a big effort in this game as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss —and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less on the road. The Saints’ defense surrendered 413 yards against the Eagles but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they gained 358 yards behind Taysom Hill at quarterback, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards. New Orleans does not play at home often as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as a dog. Drew Brees returns under center for this team in this game but he will not have Michael Thomas who will not play because of an injury until the playoffs. The Saints’ defense should play better in this one. They are holding their opponents to just 20.4 PPG along with 298.3 total YPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 14.3 PPG along with 285.7 total YPG. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win where they did not cover the point spread. The Chiefs are getting comfortable living dangerously with five straight victories by six points or less — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games by six points or fewer. And while Kansas City is getting used to their offense bailing them out by averaging 479.3 total YGP, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after averaging at least 450 YPG in three straight contests. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range including four of these last five situations. 10* NFL Kansas City-New Orleans CBS-TV Special with the New Orleans Saints (366) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (365). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (357) and the Minnesota Vikings (358). THE SITUATION: Chicago (6-7) snapped a six-game losing streak last Sunday with their 36-7 upset victory at home against Houston as a 1-point underdog. Minnesota (6-7) looks to bounce-back from their 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay last week as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears have found a spark with Mitchell Trubisky back as their starting quarterback. He completed 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Texans last week. He also rushed for 23 yards on four carries with the reckless abandon of someone who has nothing to lose. Chicago generated 410 yards in that game while averaging 7.32 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after averaging at least 7.0 YPP in their last game. The Bears are scoring 30.3 PPG over their last three games with a retooled offensive line. Chicago has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least 10 points at home. And while the defense played well last week, the Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Despite the strong defensive effort last week, they have still allowed their last three opponents to score 27.3 PPG while averaging 372.0 total YPG. They go back on the road for this one where they have played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Minnesota is just 3-4 at home this season — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total. The Vikings have also played 6 straight home games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Their loss to the Buccaneers finished 12 points below the 52 point total — and Minnesota has also played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Vikings return home where they are scoring 29.1 PPG while averaging 419.3 total YPG — but they are also allowing 30.9 PPG along with 427.0 total YPG. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home. They also have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams from the NFC North — and Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against divisional rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (357) and the Minnesota Vikings (358). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-7) looks to bounce back from their 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay last week as a 7-point underdog. Chicago (6-7) snapped a six-game losing streak last Sunday with their 36-7 upset victory at home against Houston as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when placed in the bounce-back mode as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Minnesota did get 162 rushing yards last week with Delvin Cook leading the way which is a good sign for this game as they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home for the last time for this game where they are scoring a healthy 29.1 PPG while averaging 419.3 total YPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range including covering the spread in five of these last six situations. Chicago enjoyed a transcendent game from Mitchell Trubisky who completed 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. But look for the Bears to take a step back as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Bears dominated the Texans by outgaining them by +153 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards. That game was the first time that Chicago had met point spread expectations in their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four contests. They go back on the road where they are being outscored by -3.7 net PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Despite the strong defensive effort last week, they have still allowed their last three opponents to score 27.3 PPG while averaging 372.0 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC North foes — and the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional foes. Chicago will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing at home to Minnesota by a 19-13 score as a 3-point underdog — but the home team has still covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). THE SITUATION: Denver (5-8) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 32-27 upset victory at Carolina as a 4-point underdog. Buffalo (10-3) comes off a high-profile victory last Sunday night against Pittsburgh by a 26-13 score as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills doubled-up the Steelers score last week despite gaining only 334 yards of offense. But this Buffalo team may be due for an emotional letdown now facing a 5-8 Broncos team on the road. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after winning at least four of their last five games — including failing to cover the point spread in four of these last six circumstances. Buffalo has won ten of their thirteen games despite only outgaining their opponents by +11.6 net YPG. And while they are 4-2 in their six games on the road, they have a flat net PPG margin of 0.0 in those contests. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. And while Buffalo is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.9% of their passes, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who allow their opponents to complete at least 64% of his passes. Drew Lock comes off his best game in the NFL last week as he completed 21 of his 27 passes of 280 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. He led an offense that generated 365 yards — and Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Broncos have lost four of their last six games, the Broncos have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Denver has lost the turnover battle in five straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least four straight contests. The Broncos have suffered some key injuries on defense this season — but they have still held their guests to just 336.0 YPG when playing at home. This Denver is dealing with some significant injuries (and one suspension) — and they are particularly thin at cornerback for this game. That is certainly not ideal — but head coach Vic Fangio is a defensive coach who is as good as it gets in finding solutions. Remember, we are not betting teams, we are betting point spreads that take into account injuries before the market gets involved. The good news is that Denver does expect to have their vastly improved left tackle Grant Bolles as well as tight end Noah Fant available for this game (and I am not too worried about them not having their top place kicker, Brandon McManus, either — they have been working with a backup kicker after their quarterback debacle that left them without options a few weeks ago).

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. Look for the Broncos to keep this game close as they embrace the role of the spoiler without any pressure in this game. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (301) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-17 win over Atlanta as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (7-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 44-27 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 3 points or less. And while Los Angeles has only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Despite their losing record and -5.0 net PPG average on the season, the Chargers are outgaining their opponents by +45.9 net YPG with an offense and defense that are both top-nine in the league in yardage. LA is also outgaining their home hosts when playing on the road. Anthony Lynn’s team is too often finding ways to lose — but they are playing close games with seven of their losses decided by one scoring possession. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They are also 32-15-1 ATS in their last 48 road games as an underdog. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games after not covering the point spread in at least three straight games. Head coach Jon Gruden has a mess on his hands-on defense. Not only did he fire his defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther, this week after they allowed over 200 rushing yards for the second straight week, but injuries have ruled our four defensive starters tonight in defensive backs Johnathan Abram and Damon Arnette along with linebacker Nicholas Morrow and defensive end Clelin Ferrell. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in two straight games. Las Vegas has been outrushed by 133 and 134 yards in each of their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 8 games in December, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are playing out the string — but they can not only spoil the Raiders’ playoff hopes but they can also avenge a 31-26 loss to Las Vegas on November 8th. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing in the Raiders’ home stadium. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (301) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-17 win over Atlanta as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (7-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 44-27 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is a decisive 40-19-1 in the Chargers’ last 60 games after a straight-up victory — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The LA defense is ninth in the NFL by allowing 337.1 total YPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 314.0 YPG. They held the Falcons to just 319 yards last week. The Chargers’ offense may be limited this week with running back Austin Ekeler and wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams all questionable with injuries. The reports this afternoon are that Ekeler will give it a go with his quad injury but that Allen and Williams are game-time decisions with their hamstring and back issues. Los Angles will also be without right tackle Bryan Bulaga who is ruled out with a concussion. These are not encouraging signs for an offense that is scoring only 12.3 PPG while averaging just 323.3 total YPG in their last three contests. The Chargers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. They also have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a short week on a Thursday. And in their last 26 games in December, the Under is 19-6-1. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Under is also 9-3-1 in the Raiders’ last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. Head coach Jon Gruden has a mess on his hands-on defense. Not only did he fire his defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther, this week after they allowed over 200 rushing yards for the second straight week, but injuries have ruled our four defensive starters tonight in defensive backs Johnathan Abram and Damon Arnette along with linebacker Nicholas Morrow and defensive end Clelin Ferrell. Las Vegas has passed for 368 and 345 yards in their last two games — and they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total. While there is little that Gruden and newly appointed defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli can do to fix the defensive issues, changing the game plan can ease the burden on the defense a bit. Look for the Raiders to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep his defense off the field. Defensive coaches tend to think their players hit a wall after taking part in around 50 plays. Las Vegas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in two straight games. And while the Raiders have allowed their last two opponents to average 7.72 and 6.60 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.5 YPP. Las Vegas stays at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, the Raiders have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The offense is scoring only 21.3 PPG over their last three games — and the Under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers will be playing with revenge on their mind from a 31-26 loss at home to the Raiders on November 8th — and they have played 36 of their last 54 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. These two teams have also played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (179) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (180). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-5) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 34-17 win over Dallas as an 8.5-point favorite. Cleveland (9-3) has won four games in a row with their 41-35 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore got the ground game cracking last week with 294 yards on a 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry average which they will certainly rev-up again tonight. This is a very good sign for head coach John Harbaugh’s team as they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games on the road after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Ravens allowed 388 yards to the Cowboys, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Ravens’ recent losing streak took place while defensive tackles Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams were out with injuries — but they both returned last week for the Cowboys game. Campbell is listed as questionable with his calf injury but hopefully, he will play. Baltimore is allowing only 19.2 PPG this season which is 4th best in the league. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they are 4-2 this season with an average winning margin of +6.0 PPG. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 32-14-6 ATS in their last 50 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Harbaugh’s team has also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games in December. Additionally, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against AFC North opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they are just 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games as an underdog. The Browns are dealing with injuries in their secondary with their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, out with a calf injury. They surrendered 431 total yards last week to the Titans — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland got thrashed in the first meeting between these two teams in the opening week of the season when Baltimore beat the Browns by a 38-6 score. But the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with revenge. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 meetings with the Browns — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against them when playing Cleveland. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (179) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (180). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (179) and the Cleveland Browns (180). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-5) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 34-17 win over Dallas as an 8.5-point favorite. Cleveland (9-3) has won four games in a row with their 41-35 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Baltimore did give up 388 yards of offense to the Cowboys — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens’ recent losing streak took place while defensive tackles Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams were out with injuries — but they both returned last week for the Cowboys game. Campbell is listed as questionable with his calf injury but hopefully, he will play. Baltimore is allowing only 19.2 PPG this season which is 4th best in the league. The Ravens got the ground game cracking last week with 294 yards on a 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry average which they will certainly rev-up again tonight. That will burn time off the clock — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Baltimore’s productivity on offense has dipped a bit after the season-ending injury to All-Pro left tackle, Ronnie Stanley. They are averaging 308.7 YPG with a 24.0 PPG scoring average over their last three games as compared to their 26.3 PPG and 337.9 YPG averages for the season. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Cleveland has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Browns return home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.8 PPG along with 306.2 total YPG. Cleveland has played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Browns have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Cleveland has also played 28 of their last 42 home games Under the Total in the final four weeks of the season. The Browns lead the NFL in rushing with a 158 rushing YPG average — they will be looking to control the time of possession as well. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be looking to avenge a 38-6 loss to the Ravens in the opening week of the season on September 13th. The Browns have played 25 of their last 36 home games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. These two teams have also played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (179) and the Cleveland Browns (180). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-1) suffered their first loss of the season on Monday in their 23-17 upset loss at home to Washington as a 5.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-3) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 34-24 upset win at San Francisco as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The loss on Monday may have been a bit of a relief to head coach Mike Tomlin who has been complaining about the play of his team despite their unbeaten record before that setback. Tomlin likely had an attentive team this week in practice. Pittsburgh needs to get back to running the football more after putting too much pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to carry the offense with his arm. Big Ben has attempted at least 45 passes in five straight games. The talented wide receiving corps has been feeling the pressure with their league-leading 34 dropped passes this season. Fortunately, Tomlin expects his All-Pro center, Maurkice Pouncey, and running back James Conner back for this game just in time. This team should back to basics — run the ball, don’t ask too much of your quarterback, and lean your our outstanding defense. The Steel Curtain leads the NFL by allowing only 17.6 PPG this season — and they are third in the league by giving up only 300.5 total YPG. They have suffered injuries at linebacker with Bud Dupree joining Devin Bush in incurring a season-ending injury — but they still only allowed 13.3 PPG along with 247.7 YPG in their last three games. As it is, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they are 5-0 with an average winning margin of +9.2 PPG. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games as an underdog. Buffalo may be due for a letdown after their high-profile win in prime-time on Monday. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games after winning four of their last five games. Despite their 9-3 record, Buffalo is only outgaining their opponents by +3.4 YPG. The Bills’ defense has taken a step back this season as they are allowing 375.4 total YPG which is 21st in the league. This unit lost some key pieces from the group that was third in total defense last season — their heart-and-soil leader, Lorenzo Alexander, retired in the offseason and defensive linemen Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson along with cornerback Kevin Johnson were  all poached in free agency. Defensive tackle Star Lotuleilei then opted out because of COVID. These losses have left this Bills’ defense small — they are allowing their opponents to average 126.0 rushing YPG which is 9th worst in the league. The Niners’ offense led by Nick Mullens gained 402 yards against them on Monday — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams from the AFC — and Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC foes. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) and the Buffalo Bills (178). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-1) suffered their first loss of the season on Monday in their 23-17 upset loss at home to Washington as a 5.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-3) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 34-24 upset win at San Francisco as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss. The setback on Monday may have been a bit of a relief to head coach Mike Tomlin who has been complaining about the play of his team despite their unbeaten record before that setback. Tomlin likely had an attentive team this week in practice. Pittsburgh needs to get back to running the football more after putting too much pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to carry the offense with his arm. Big Ben has attempted at least 45 passes in five straight games. The talented wide receiving corps has been feeling the pressure with their league-leading 34 dropped passes this season. Fortunately, Tomlin expects his All-Pro center, Maurkice Pouncey, and running back James Conner back for this game just in time. This team should back to basics — run the ball, don’t ask too much of your quarterback, and lean your our outstanding defense. The Steel Curtain leads the NFL by allowing only 17.6 PPG this season — and they are third in the league by giving up only 300.5 total YPG. They have suffered injuries at linebacker with Bud Dupree joining Devin Bush in incurring a season-ending injury — but they still only allowed 13.3 PPG along with 247.7 YPG in their last three games. After playing their last two games at home, the Steelers go back on the road where the Under is 38-12-1 in their last 51 games. Pittsburgh has also played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total on the road with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing their last five games Under the Total in those circumstances. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the Steelers’ last 6 games on the road as an underdog. Pittsburgh has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Buffalo surrendered 402 yards last week to the 49ers — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bills have covered the point spread in four straight games — and not only have then played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning at least two of their last three games but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, Buffalo has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in December — and the Bills have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) and the Buffalo Bills (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (175) minus points versus the Washington Football Team (176). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-7) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in their temporary home at Glendale, Arizona on Monday. Washington (5-7) has won three games in a row after their 23-17 upset win at Pittsburgh on Monday as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: After the emotional high of giving the Steelers their first loss of the season, look for the Football Team to be flat in this game. As it is, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. This is a very difficult situation for Ron Rivera’s team to be playing on a short week while being away from home for the third straight week. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after a game played on Monday Night Football. The Football Team has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing their last two games on the road. They will be without one of their best weapons on offense in running back Anthony Gibson who suffered an injury early in that game against Pittsburgh. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games away from home after suffering an upset loss. They did gain 402 yards against the Bills defense in the losing effort — and they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Niners have just seven points in each of the first halves of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is slowly getting healthier — and they could still make the playoffs if they win out the rest of their games. I don’t see this team giving up on Kyle Shanahan — and they have an opportunity to catch a Washington team that is not used to handling good times. 10* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the San Francisco 49ers (175) minus points versus the Washington Football Team (176). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (151) and the Detroit Lions (152). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-3) has won four of their last five games after their 30-16 win against Philadelphia as an 8-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (5-7) comes off a 34-30 upset victory at Chicago as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. Detroit played with more energy and enthusiasm in their first game after being liberated from previous head coach Matt Patricia. Interim head coach Darrell Bevell has improved the atmosphere in the Lions’ locker room so expect a spirited effort from this team in playing the role of the spoiler at this point of the season. Detroit has lost four of their last six games — and they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. And while the Lions surrendered 389 yards to the Bears, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Detroit has allowed 71 combined points in their last two games with both contests going Over the Total — but the Lions have then played 5 of their last 7 gamed Under the Total after allowing at least 25 pints in two straight games and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. Additionally, Detroit has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. And while the Packers are allowing 24.9 Points-Per-Game this season, the Lions have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 24 PPG. Detroit has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in December — and Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. The Packers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Green Bay gained 437 yards last week against the Eagles — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Packers held Philly to just a field goal in the first half last week — and they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half in their last contest. And while Green Bay has scored at least 30 points in three straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. Additionally, the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And while the Lions allow 29.8 PPG, Green Bay has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 24 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers won the first meeting between these two teams on September 20th by a 42-21 score — and Detroit has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (151) and the Detroit Lions (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (158). THE SITUATION: Arizona (6-6) has lost three games in a row after their 38-28 loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams last week as a 2.5-point underdog. New York (5-7) has won four straight games after their 17-12 upset victory at Seattle last Sunday as an 11-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Giants are a popular play this week in many circles after their high-profile signature victory — but they are just 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games after a point spread win. New York is playing great defense as of late as they are allowing only 16.5 PPG over their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Backup quarterback Colt McCoy completed 13 of 22 passes for 105 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the win — but the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Daniel Jones is expected to return to this game but his hamstring injury will limit the mobility that he has relied on to energize the offense since the season-ending injury to Saquon Barkley. Now New York returns home to MetLife where they are just 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games as an underdog. The Giants score only 19.0 PPG at home while averaging 300.2 total YPG — they are being outscored by -5.6 PPG while being outgained by -59.0 net YPG when playing at home. Arizona managed only 232 yards last week while only having their offense on the field for 21:07 minutes in their loss to the Rams — but they are then 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Cardinals surrendered 463 yards to the Rams as well with 344 of those yards coming in the air — but they are then 23-11-3 ATS in their last 37 games after allowing at least 250 pain yards in their last game. Arizona goes back on the road where they are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games — and they have covered the point span in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona misses Chandler Jones on defense who suffered a season-ending injury earlier in the year. And Kyler Murray has not been as productive as of late either because of an undisclosed injury or a sophomore slump. Yet the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips east to play the Giants. They are still holding home teams to just 19.8 PPG along with 327.77 total YPG — and they are outscoring their home hosts by +5.4 PPG while outgaining them by +41.2 net YPG. 10* NFL Road Warrior Wipeout with the Arizona Cardinals (157) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the New York Giants (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (153) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (154). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (8-4) looks to rebound from their 41-35 upset loss at home to Cleveland last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Jacksonville (1-11) comes off a 27-24 loss in overtime at Minnesota as a 10.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans were embarrassed last week against the Browns as they surrendered 38 points in the first half to go into the locker rooms trailing by 31 points. Tennessee has then played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after trailing by at least three touchdowns in their last game. The Titans have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. Tennessee is third in the NFL who score 29.9 PPG — and they have averaged at least 6.41 Yards-Per-Play in their last three games. But the Titans have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in at least three straight games. Jacksonville played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing at home after suffering a loss on the road. The Jaguars have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by just three points. Jacksonville has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread cover where they lost the game as an underdog. Now the Jags return home where they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the total set at 45.5 or higher. Jacksonville has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the total set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Jaguars have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Jacksonville. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (153) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (6-6) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 45-0 victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers. Los Angeles (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 38-28 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. New England limited the Chargers to just 258 yards in the win while controlling the time of possession for 33:41 minutes. The Patriots ran the ball 43 times for 165 yards to keep rookie Justin Herbert off the field. New England has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They also held the Chargers to just 70 rushing yards — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots have simplified their game-plan with Cam Newton under center to be a run-first team that does not try to rely on his arm. Newton attempted only 19 passes on Sunday for a mere 69 yards. New England is third in the NFL by averaging 150.9 rushing YPG — but they now face the stout Rams’ defense that is third in the league by holding their opponents to just 93.1 rushing YPG. If the Patriots do not find success running the football, they lack a credible Plan B. Even if Newton was a better gunslinger at this point of his career, he lacks the weapons at wide receiver to be productive — especially against this Rams secondary which might be the best in the league. This commitment to running the football has helped the New England defense as they rank 12th in the league by allowing only 344.6 YPG. The Patriots have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC. And while New England has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Rams have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Rams are without left tackle Andrew Whitworth for the rest of the season given the knee injury that put him on Injured Reserve. Head coach Bill Belichick will likely blitz heavily since quarterback Jared Goff struggles under pressure — so the absence of Whitworth will likely be noticed tonight. Los Angeles returns home where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 7 straight games Under the Total as the favorite — and the Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with New England Patriots (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 38-28 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New England (6-6) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 45-0 victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles had their offensive clicking on all cylinders against the Cardinals. They held the ball for 38:53 minutes while cranking out 463 yards. Quarterback Jared Goff completed 37 of 47 passes for 351 yards. The Rams should build off their momentum for this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, while LA generated 30 first downs against Arizona, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 34 first downs in their last game. The Rams shined on defense as well as they held the Cardinals’ offensive attack to just 232 yards. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 150 yards. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. New England outclassed the Chargers last week despite only gaining 291 total yards. The Patriots scored two special teams touchdowns from a 70-yard punt return for a touchdown along with a 44-yard blocked field goal returned for a TD. But Bill Belichick’s team has not been very good at maintaining consistency as they are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. New England is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots have simplified their game-plan with Cam Newton under center to be a run-first team that does not try to rely on his arm. Newton attempted only 19 passes on Sunday for a mere 69 yards. New England is third in the NFL by averaging 150.9 rushing YPG — but they now face the stout Rams’ defense that is third in the league by holding their opponents to just 93.1 rushing YPG. If the Patriots do not find success running the football, they lack a credible Plan B. Even if Newton was a better gunslinger at this point of his career, he lacks the weapons at wide receiver to be productive — especially against this Rams secondary which might be the best in the league. Despite their 6-6 record, Los Angeles is getting outgained in yardage this season.

FINAL TAKE: New England has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the final four weeks of the season — and the Rams are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in December. Head coach Sean McVay has been thinking about this opportunity to avenge his team’s loss in Super Bowl 53 for a long time. His team has a decided talent edge this time around. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (483) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (484). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-8) has lost five of their last six games after their 41-26 upset loss to Washington on Thanksgiving as a 2.5-point favorite. Baltimore (6-5) has lost three straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 19-14 loss at Pittsburgh last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore may be flat in this game after playing their arch-rivals on a short week (as Pittsburgh was last night against Washington). As it is, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Baltimore has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Ravens really miss left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is out the season with an ankle injury. His absence explains much of the reason why Baltimore is averaging 18.3 PPG in their last three games with just 294.0 total YPG over that span. Their offense does get Lamar Jackson back for this game — but remember that Cam Newton struggled both physically and mentally (COVID has been shown to negatively impact brain functioning with many sufferers complaining of being in a fog for an extended period of time even after recovery). Don’t expect Jackson to be back at 100% tonight. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games when favored. Baltimore has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Dallas was humiliated on national television in their last game — and they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss by at least three touchdowns. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns. Dallas will certainly have the situational edge with almost two weeks of rest and preparation for this contest. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after playing on a Thursday. They also have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And while Dallas surrendered 182 rushing yards to the Football Team, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after allowing at least 175 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas can pull within one game of the NY Giants and Washington in the NFC East race — but the opportunity to play spoiler against the Ravens may be more realistic for this football team. Pride is on the line after how they played on Thanksgiving. 10* NFL Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with the Dallas Cowboys (483) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (483) and the Baltimore Ravens (484). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-8) has lost five of their last six games after their 41-26 upset loss to Washington on Thanksgiving as a 2.5-point favorite. Baltimore (6-5) has lost three straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 19-14 loss at Pittsburgh last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens’ loss to the Steelers came on the heels of them losing by a 30-24 score to Tennessee the previous week — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after losing two in a row by 6 points or less. Baltimore has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Ravens do expect to get Calais Campbell back on their defensive line after he has missed time with a calf injury (and he was on the COVID list last week) — he took part in limited practice on Saturday. Baltimore may also get back defensive tackle Brandon Williams who is questionable but also took part in limited practice on Saturday. Getting one or both of those run stoppers will make a big difference for the Ravens defense that has taken a step back during their losing streak. Baltimore still ranks 3rd in the league by allowing only 19.5 PPG — and they rank 8th in the NFL by holding teams to 331.8 total YPG. The Ravens really miss left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is out the season with an ankle injury. His absence explains much of the reason why Baltimore is averaging 18.3 PPG in their last three games with just 294.0 total YPG over that span. Their offense does get Lamar Jackson back for this game — but remember that Cam Newton struggled both physically and mentally (COVID has been shown to negatively impact brain functioning with many sufferers complaining of being in a fog for an extended period of time even after recovery). Don’t expect Jackson to be back at 100% tonight. The Ravens will likely give a heavy dose of rushing attempts to J.K. Dobbins along with Mark Ingram who both were taken off the COVID list — and this commitment will likely decrease the number of possessions for both teams given the running clock. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as a favorite. Dallas has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Cowboys have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Dallas surrendered 41 points to the Football Team despite only giving up 338 yards in that game. Washington scored only of their touchdowns from a 15-yard interception return. The larger issue for the Cowboys is their offense that is scoring only 14.7 PPG in their last seven games. Dallas has only topped 19 points once in their last six games. To compound matters on that side of the ball, they will be without both Zach Martin and Cam Erving to injury after both offensive linemen played on Thanksgiving. On the road, the Cowboys are scoring just 18.2 PPG along with averaging 337.0 total YPG. Dallas has played 17 of their last 25 road games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are likely to focus on their running games tonight — even with the wide receiver talent that the Cowboys have, their coaches do not want Andy Dalton throwing more than 40 times in this game. Baltimore has played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. 25* NFL Fox-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (483) and the Baltimore Ravens (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (486) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (485). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-6) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-20 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5-point underdog. Buffalo (8-3) has won four of their last five games after their 27-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week as a 4.5-point favorite. With COVID regulations precluding football games to be played in Santa Clara County, the 49ers have moved to Glendale, Arizona for their temporary home with this contest being played in the Cardinals’ State Farm Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINTS: San Francisco outgained the Rams by +37 net yards by controlling the time of possession by over 34 minutes and limiting them to just 308 yards of offense. The Niners held a 7-3 halftime lead in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. And while San Francisco has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team is getting back some important players on both sides of the football. Running backs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman along with wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are back on offense. They got back Richard Sherman on defense last week to help a unit that is 4th in the league by allowing just 206.7 passing YPG. Despite a host of injuries all season, the Niners’ defense has been consistently strong under the guidance of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh — they are allowing only 315.2 total YPG which is 5th best in the NFL. The 49ers also rank 6th in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Carry. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams from the AFC — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 43 games on Monday Night Football. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 46 games after winning four of their last five games — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in their last four games under those circumstances. And while the Bills have covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 61 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Quarterback Josh Allen has not played as well after a hot start to the season. Allen completed 69.3% of his passes for his first four games for a 330 passing YPG average with a 9.1 Yards-Per-Attempt rate while averaging 3.0 touchdown passes per game. But in his last seven games, Allen is averaging only 243.1 passing YPG with a 7.43 YAP while tossing only 1.43 touchdowns per game. Buffalo is not playing as well on defense this season either. They are 18th in the league by allowing 243.5 passing YPG — and they are 25th in the NFL by allowing 129.6 rushing YPG. The Chargers gained 367 yards against them last week — and the Bills are 1-4-1 ATS  in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is getting outgained this season despite their 8-3 record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (486) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (485). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (485) and the San Francisco 49ers (486). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-3) has won four of their last five games after their 27-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week as a 4.5-point favorite. San Francisco (5-6) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-20 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5-point underdog. With COVID regulations precluding football games to be played in Santa Clara County, the 49ers have moved to Glendale, Arizona for their temporary home with this contest being played in the Cardinals’ State Farm Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills surrendered 367 yards to the Chargers in their victory last week — but they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. That game still finished well below the 51.5 point total — and Buffalo has played 11 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total after playing their last game below the number. The Bills defeated the Chargers despite a -2 net turnover margin — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they suffered a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Buffalo defense should play better with the return of linebacker Matt Milano from injury. They go back on the road where they have played 36 of their last 53 road games as an underdog. The Bills have also played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total as a dog. Additionally, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total for Monday Night Football. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win over an NFC West rival — and they have played 3 straight games Under the Total after an upset victory over a divisional opponent. Despite a host of injuries all season, the Niners’ defense has been consistently strong under the guidance of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh — they are allowing only 315.2 total YPG which is 5th best in the NFL. San Francisco is 4th in the league by allowing just 206.7 passing YPG — and they got cornerback Richard Sherman back healthy last week in their upset win over the Rams where they allowed just 308 total yards. The 49ers also rank 6th in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Carry. The 43 combined points scored last week included a defensive touchdown for both teams. Nick Mullens was solid at quarterback in place of Jimmy Garoppolo as he completed 24 of 35 passes for 252 yards — but his mediocre 44.2 Quarterback Rating this season is below the 59.9 QBR that Garoppolo posted this season. Under Mullens, the Niners are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging just 322.0 total YPG in their last three games. While this is a technical home game for San Francisco, it is, in practice, a road game — and the 49ers are holding teams to just 18.7 PPG along with 274.0 total YPG when playing away from home. Furthermore, the 49ers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when lists in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in that point range. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (485) and the San Francisco 49ers (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (487) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (488). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-7) has won two straight games after their 41-16 upset victory at Dallas on Thanksgiving by a 41-16 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Pittsburgh (11-0) remained unbeaten last Wednesday with their 19-14 win over Baltimore as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: Washington has the situational edge in this game with them having eleven days between games while the Steelers are on a short week after playing their rescheduled game with the Ravens on Wednesday. The Football Team is finding their groove under first-year head coach Ron Rivera now that he has found his quarterback in Alex Smith. Washington has scored 29.3 PPG in the three games Smith has started. He is completing 69% of his passes (5th best in the NFL) while leading an offense that is 5th in Success Rate in those three games. The Football Team tends to build off their momentum when they are playing well. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win. Furthermore, the Football Team has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 21 points against an NFC East rival. Their triumph over the Cowboys came after they defeated Cincinnati by a 20-9 score — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. Smith’s efficient game-management is complementing the tough Washington defense that is 8th in the NFL against the pass and 5th against the run. The Football Team has 36 sacks and 66 hits on the quarterback which are both the second-best marks in the league. Pittsburgh returns to action after that physical game with the Ravens — they were flat and had to conduct a second-half comeback to eke out a 24-19 win against Dallas after their first game with Baltimore this season. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Pittsburgh is the lone undefeated team in the league but they have benefited from the second-easiest schedule. They have survived five close games decided by one possession. The Steelers have not allowed more than 14 points in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after not allowing more than 17 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh will be without running back James Conner again this week after they rushed for only 68 yards last week. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh is dealing with some injuries with star linebacker Bud Dupree out the season which makes them a bit thin at that position with Devin Bush already out the year. They will miss his eight sacks and eight hits on the quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger also missed the last three practices given his injured knee. Expect Washington to keep it close. 10* NFL Washington-Pittsburgh Fox-TV Special with the Washington Football Team (487) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Denver (4-7) has lost three of their last four games with their 31-3 loss at home to New Orleans last week as a 17-point underdog. Kansas City (10-1) has won six games in a row after their 27-24 win at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver was embarrassed as an organization last week with their four-touchdown loss the culmination of their COVID outbreak that left them with their entire active quarterback depth chart inactive. The Broncos have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home. Denver has also covered the point spread i 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Broncos did not have a credible passing attack last week with wide receiver Kendall Hinton serving as the quarterback. He completed only one pass of 13 yards. Denver does get Drew Lock back this week under center who should have something to prove. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while they managed only 112 yards of offense last week, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. The key to this game will be slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Denver has held their last three opponents to just 290.7 total YPG. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Kansas City is averaging a robust 466.7 total YPG over their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 straight games after averring at least 450 YPG in their lat three games. Despite that offensive productivity, the Chiefs are only outscoring these three opponents by +3.0 PPG. These last three games have been decided by just nine combined points. Furthermore, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 12 games in Weeks 10 through 13.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs won the first meeting between these two teams by a 43-16 score — with two of those touchdowns coming from a defensive score and a special teams TD. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (475) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Denver (4-7) has lost three of their last four games with their 31-3 loss at home to New Orleans last week as a 17-point underdog. Kansas City (10-1) has won six games in a row after their 27-24 win at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where the Under is a decisive 29-9-1 in their last 39 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And while the Chiefs score 32.0 PPG at home, they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 14 points. After Patrick Mahomes was asked to throw the ball 49 times last week, expect the offensive brain trust to run the ball more this week to take some pressure off of him — and that will burn time off the clock. The Kansas City defense is underrated as they rank 6th in the league by allowing 21.6 Points-Per-Game. The Chiefs have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in December. Denver has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in December. The Broncos have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Denver has held their last three opponents to just 290.7 total YPG. The Broncos have played three straight games that finished Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. And while Denver trailed at halftime by a 17-0 score, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being behind at halftime by at least two touchdowns. The Broncos have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Moving forward, the Under is 13-5-1 in Denver’s last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against familiar teams from the AFC West.

FINAL TAKE: The first meeting between these two teams finished with Kansas City winning by a 43-16 score on October 25th in Denver. Mahomes was limited to completing just 15 of 23 passes for 200 yards — the Chiefs scored touchdowns from their defense and special teams to reach the 40-point threshold. The Broncos have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total one playing with revenge from a loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by at least three touchdowns. 25* AFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (465) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (466). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (8-3) has won three in a row after their 27-25 win at Jacksonville last week as a 7.5-point favorite. Tennessee (8-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 45-26 upset win at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee has pulled off two straight upset victories with their revenge triumph over the Colts preceded by their 30-24 win at Baltimore. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after an upset win on the road by at least two touchdowns. Tennessee raced out to a 35-14 lead over Indianapolis last week — yet they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Additionally, the Titans are 19-39-1 ATS in their last 59 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Tennessee surrendered 280 passing yards to the Colts in the winning effort, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Titans have the kind of defense that Browns’ QB Baker Mayfield tends to play his best against because they lack a pass rush which pushes him to hurry his throws in the pocket. Cleveland has won eight straight games when Mayfield posts a Passer Rating of at least (a modest) 70. He completed 19 of 29 passes for 258 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions last week. Mayfield has now played three straight games without throwing an interception. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Browns lead the NFL by averaging 161 rushing YPG this season — and Nick Chubb has rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games. The Titans are vulnerable against good rushing teams where they rank in the middle of the pack by allowing 116 rushing YPG (15th) and 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry (16th). Cleveland rushed for 207 yards last week on 33 carries — and not only have they then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. They averaged 7.4 Yards-Per-Play overall last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Cleveland is banged up in their secondary with injuries but they do get defensive end extraordinaire Myles Garrett back from the COVID list for this game. 

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is only outgaining their opponents by +1.1 net YPG this season despite their 8-3 record — and they are being outgained by -54.3 net YPG when playing at home. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite. Expect a close game. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (465) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (279) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-4) has lost two games in a row as well as three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Tennessee in overtime back on November 22nd. Pittsburgh (10-0) remained unbeaten this season on November 22nd with their 27-3 win at Jacksonville as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: Baltimore enters this game with their backs against the wall with a losing streak, limited practice time, and several players out because of injury. Lamar Jackson, Willie Snead IV, Mark Andrews, and Matthew Judon are not expected to be removed from the COVID list at noon PM ET today. Defensive linemen Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell are out with injuries along with offensive linemen Ronnie Stanley and D.J. Fluker. Yet asking the Steelers to cover a double-digit point spread even under these conditions is probably too much to ask against a bitter divisional rival. The Ravens surrendered 436 yards in their loss to Tennessee while getting outgained by -117 net yards. Yet Baltimore has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 350 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last game. The Ravens hopes to get J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram back off the COVID list this afternoon for this game. Baltimore will run the ball plenty in this game to burn time off the clock — they rushed the ball 47 times for 265 yards even with a healthy Jackson in the first meeting between these two teams. While the Ravens lost that game by a 28-24 score as a 4-point favorite, they outgained the Steelers in that game by a decisive +236 net yards but were undone by a -3 net turnover margin. QB Robert Griffin III can still move the football with his legs — he rushed for 50 yards in his start against Pittsburgh in Week 17 last season. The Ravens go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games —and they are 31-14-6 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record at home under head coach John Harbaugh. Pittsburgh does struggle with complacency at times — they have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games as a double-digit favorite. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in eight of their ten games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least eight of their last ten games. Pittsburgh gained 373 yards in their win over Jacksonville last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. While the Steelers are not facing the same attrition as the Ravens, they will be without running back James Conner who is on the COVID list. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games against AFC North foes — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. Look for the Ravens to keep this game close. 10* NFL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Baltimore Ravens (279) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (279) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-4) has lost two games in a row as well as three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Tennessee in overtime back on November 22nd. Pittsburgh (10-0) remained unbeaten this season on November 22nd with their 27-3 win at Jacksonville as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This game has been rescheduled three times — and while the players may not be in optimal shape to play this game given limited practice time, the defensive game plans should be very fine-tuned — especially with this being a rematch from the Steelers’ 28-24 upset victory as a 4-point underdog on November 1st. Pittsburgh leads the NFL by allowing only 17.4 PPG — and they are second in the league by holding their opponents to just 4.94 Yards-Per-Play. The Steel Curtain has held their last three opponents to just 10.7 PPG along with only 299.0 total YPG. The Under is 17-5-1 in their last 23 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and the Under is 38-18-2 in their last 58 games after a point prawn victory. The Steelers held the Jaguars to just 206 total yards in their last game — and the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. On offense, Pittsburgh did gain 373 yards against Jacksonville — and the Under is 30-11-2 in their last 43 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They will be without running back James Conner in this game who is on the COVID list. But the list for the Ravens is much longer — headlined by quarterback Lamar Jackson being out because of COVID. Robert Griffin III will be under center for Baltimore who leaves the offense even more limited in what they can do in the passing game. RG3 has just one start in the last three years — and it was against these Steelers’ last season when he completed only 11 of 21 passes for 96 yards in Week 17. The Ravens hopes to get J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram back off the COVID list this afternoon for this game. Baltimore will run the ball plenty in this game to burn time off the clock — they rushed the ball 47 times for 265 yards even with a healthy Jackson in the first meeting. The Ravens have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. Baltimore has scored only 21.7 PPG while averaging 309.7 YPG over their last three games with their offensive missing their All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is out the year with an injury. The Ravens defense surrendered 423 yards to the Titans — but they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they are allowing only 18.8 PPG along with 331.6 total YPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. The Under is 17-7-2 in the Steelers’ last 26 games against AFC foes — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against divisional opponents. 25* NFL NBC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (279) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (276) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (3-6-1) has lost two games in a row with their 22-17 loss at Cleveland last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog. Seattle (7-3) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 28-21 win over Arizona as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia needs a win — and they have been facing adversity all week given the struggles on quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles have not covered the point spread in their last two games either — but they have then covered the point spread in 40 of their last 60 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after losing two of their last three games. The Eagles are playing better defense as of late. They have allowed 19.3 PPG over their last three games along with just 323.7 total YPG which is over -6 PPG and -19.0 net YPG below their season averages. Five of the Seahawks’ seven wins have been by one scoring margin — so they have not been blowing teams out. They are just +0.2 PPG when playing on the road while allowing 30.4 PPG and getting outgained by -20.2 net YPG. The Seahawks have not been a reliable road favorite under head coach Pete Carroll as they have failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 73 games away from home as a favorite up to 7 points. Head coach Doug Pederson tends to see his team perform well against powerful offensive teams. Seattle is scoring 31.8 PPG while averaging 400 total YPG this season — but the Eagles have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 29 PPG and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games against teams who average at least 375 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles will have double-revenge on their minds as well after losing twice to Seattle last year by identical 17-9 scores — including in the NFC wildcard playoffs. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Philadelphia Eagles (276) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (275) and the Philadelphia Eagles (276). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-3) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 28-21 win over Arizona as a 3-point favorite. Philadelphia (3-6-1) has lost two games in a row with their 22-17 loss at Cleveland last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 8 straight home games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. Philadelphia managed only 315 yards in the loss to the Browns with QB Carson Wentz continuing to struggle. Wentz has a career-low 58.4% completion percentage along with a Passer Rating of 73.3 which is also a career-low. The Eagles are scoring only 19.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 291.3 total YPG. Wentz is flailing behind a disaster of an offensive line that has been ravaged with injuries. With the season-ending injury to Lane Johnson, Philly will be using their tenth different offensive line configuration for this game. The Eagles have allowed 40 sacks this season which is the most in the league — and they are last in adjusted sack rate. But the Philadelphia defense is playing better as of late. They have allowed 19.3 PPG over their last three games along with just 323.7 total YPG which is over -6 PPG and -19.0 net YPG below their season averages. Now the Eagles return home where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total. Philadelphia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total in November including six straight Unders. Seattle is also playing better on defense as of late after holding the Cardinals to just 314 yards of offense. Funny what happens when safety Jamal Adams gets healthy again while adding defensive lineman Carlos Dunlap from Cincinnati into the mix. The Seahawks have registered 16 sacks over their last four games. And while the 374.3 YPG they have allowed in their last three games since acquiring Dunlap which is over 60 YPG below their season average. Seattle also seemed to make a philosophical change last week to get back to running the ball more. They had 31 rushing attempts in that game which was more than the 28 pass attempts of Russell Wilson. Getting Carlos Hyde back at running back helped — he had rushed for 79 yards in his first game back from injury. Chris Carson returns to action tonight as well after he has been out for injury — so this should be a heavy ground game attack for the Seahawks. Wilson was beginning to make mistakes with turnovers feeling the pressure to carry the team with his arm — so head coach Pete Carroll dialed back the “Let Russ Cook” directives. Running the ball more also helps the defense — the commitment to running the football kept Kyler Murray only on the field for less than 25 minutes last week. Additionally, the ankle injury to right tackle Braden Shell will likely compel more rushing attempts from this team since he thrives in pass protection — and his replacement, Cedric Ogbuehi, struggles in that area. Now Seattle goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams who do not have a winning record at home. They also have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total as the favorite. Additionally, while the Eagles are averaging only 5.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Seahawks have played 22 of their last 29 road games Under the Total against teams who average no more than 5.7 YPA. And while Seattle averages 31.8 PPG, Philadelphia has played 7 straight home games Under the Total against teams who average at least 24 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played twice last season in Philadelphia including the NFC wildcard game with both games ending in a 17-9 victory for the Seahawks. The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. While I expect more than 26 combined points this time around, look for a lower-scoring game that stays below 50 combined points. Maybe even some scoring drives will (finally) have to settle for some field goals! 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (275) and the Philadelphia Eagles (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-5) has lost four games in a row after their 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota back on November 16th as a 3.5-point underdog. Green Bay (7-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 34-31 loss in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. Green Bay generated 367 yards in the loss to the Colts — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Packers have averaged at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last three games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. Green Bay surrendered 280 passing yards in their last game — but they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. The Packers return home to Lambeau Field where they are holding their opponents to 304.5 total YPG which is almost 40 YPG below their season average. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Chicago has played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss at home in Soldier Field. The Bears have also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago will be turning back to Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback tonight with Nick Foles doubtful with his hip injury. He takes over an offense that is scoring only 19.1 PPG while ranking second-to-last with a 300.9 total YPG average. Over their last three games, the Bears are scoring only 17.7 PPG along with averaging just 284.3 YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against fellow NFC North opponents — and Green Bay has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against NFC North foes. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-5) has lost four games in a row after their 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota back on November 16th as a 3.5-point underdog. Green Bay (7-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 34-31 loss in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago scored only 6 points in the first half against the Vikings after not scoring in the first half of their last game against Tennessee — but this organization has covered the point spread in a decisive 53 of their last 83 gams after not scoring more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. The Bears managed only 149 total yards against Minnesota with just 124 of these yards in the air. Chicago has then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to gain at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Nick Foles was knocked out of that game last week with a hip injury that will keep him out of this game. Mitchell Trubisky will be the starting quarterback in this game — and I think he should play better than he did earlier in the season. Trubisky has nothing to lose now so the pressure should be off. This will also be his first start with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor calling the plays since he took over those responsibilities two games ago for head coach Matt Nagy. Don’t be surprised if Trubisky is more active with his legs. The team will get running back David Montgomery back for this game as well which will be a big help — he leads the team with 472 rushing yards. Playing Green Bay may help since they are last in the NFL in Red Zone defense with opposing offenses scoring in 97% of their trips inside the Packers’ 20-yard line this season. The Bears’ defense should keep them in this game. They are 9th in the NFL by allowing 340.1 Yards-Per-Game — and they are holding their opponents to 20.9 PPG. Chicago has not allowed more than 96 rushing yards in seven straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against fellow NFC North opponents. Green Bay blew a 28-14 lead last week against the Colts — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after owning a two-touchdown or better halftime lead in their last game. Aaron Rodgers completed 27 of 38 passes for 311 yards in that game — but the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Green Bay has averaged 6.8, 6.7, and 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. Now the Packers return home where they have struggled in their last two games with a narrow 24-20 win over lowly Jacksonville and getting upset by the Vikings by a 28-22 score. Perhaps the team misses the fans in Lambeau Field? There will be an audience of up to 500 tonight consisting of friends and family — but that will not accomplish much regarding the energy level in the stadium. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Rodgers is just 6-12-1 straight-up in his last nineteen starts again teams with a top-ten defense. And while he is leading an offense that is third in seventh in total yardage, Chicago has won eight of their last eleven games when facing a top-ten offense. A Bears’ victory pulls them within one game of first place of the Packers in the NFC North — expect a close game. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (260) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (259). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 31-28 upset loss to Dallas as a 7-point favorite. Carolina (4-7) comes off a 20-0 shutout victory over Detroit last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when picking themselves up off the mat after a loss under head coach Mike Zimmer as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games are a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Minnesota has been playing much better football as of late — and they still have an outside shot to make the playoffs. They have held their last three opponents to just 21.3 PPG along with 315.3 total Yards-Per-Game despite last week’s results. The Vikings have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Kirk Cousins played well last week as he completed 22 of 30 passes for 314 yards with two touchdown passes and join interceptions. Running back Dalvin Cook has been sublime this season (when healthy) — he rushed for 115 yards with a touchdown on 27 carries last week. Minnesota gained 430 yards in the losing effort to the Cowboys — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings are scoring 27.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging 434.0 total YPG. Wide receiver Adam Thielen is out for this game with after a positive COVID test but I expect this to be the Cook show on the ground against a defense that allows opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Minnesota stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Carolina is likely due for a letdown after their dominant performance against the hapless Lions. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they held Detroit (with an injured Matthew Stafford who had not practiced all week) to just 185 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Carolina is averaging only 332.0 total YPG in their last three contests — and they will be without running back Christian McCaffrey who was declared out with a shoulder injury for this game. The Panthers snapped a five-game losing streak with their win over the Lions — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after losing at least four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in November under Zimmer’s leadership. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (260) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (261) and the Indianapolis Colts (262). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-3) has won two of their last three games with their 30-24 upset victory at Baltimore last Sunday as a 6-point underdog. Indianapolis (7-3) has won two straight as well as four of their last five games after their 34-31 win over Green Bay last week as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory in their last game. Despite the win last week, Tennessee has only averaged 23.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging a mere 315.0 total YPG. They will have revenge on their mind after losing at home to Indianapolis back on November 12th by a 34-17 score — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least two touchdowns. Expect plenty of running from the Titans behind Derrick Henry in this rematch with the Titans the top rushing team in the NFL. That will burn time off the clock and shorter the number of possessions for both teams. Tennessee has also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total as an underdog of up to 3 points. The Titans are completing 65.3% of their passes this season — and they are playing a Colts team that has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are completing at least 64% of their passes. Indianapolis enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Packers last week — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after producing a +2 net turnover or better margin in their last game. Indianapolis has scored 34 points in their last two games with both games going Over the Total with at least 51 combined points scored — but this sets up the Under as a nice contrarian play. The Colts have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. Indy has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after seeing at least 50 combined points scored in their last two games. The Colts are top-five in defense by allowing only 20.8 PPG — and they hold their visitors to just 293.2 total YPG when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing in Indianapolis. Expect this rematch to be lowering scoring than the one they played just 17 days ago. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (261) and the Indianapolis Colts (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (123) and the Dallas Cowboys (124). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-7) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-9 victory over Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite. Dallas (3-7) ended a four-game losing streak last week with their 31-28 upset victory at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Football Team has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Washington rushed for 164 yards in that game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Football Team has been the best pass defense in the league that is holding their opponents to just 195 passing YPG. Led by rookie defensive end Chase Young, Washington is tied for third in the NFL with 32 sacks. Defense travels — and the Football Team goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 gams Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. But Washington is scoring only 20.3 PPG in their games away from home. Furthermore, the Football Team has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Dallas generated 376 yards of offense in their victory on Sunday — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Even after scoring 31 points last week, the Cowboys are averaging only 19.7 PPG along with 335.0 total YPG in their last three games. Dallas did give up 430 yards to the Vikings — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Cowboys have played better defense as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 335.7 total YPG. With Zack Martin healthy again on their offensive line, Dallas can reliably run the football — they ran for 180 yards last week which was a season-high. When the Cowboys run the football while not asking Andy Dalton to throw more than 35 times, they can burn time off the clock which helps their defense. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: While the Cowboys will want to run the football, Washington limited the Bengals to just 70 rushing yards last week — and the Football Team has played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. 10* NFL Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (123) and the Dallas Cowboys (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (123) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (124). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-7) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-9 victory over Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite. Dallas (3-7) ended a four-game losing streak last week with their 31-28 upset victory at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: One good game from the Cowboys has everyone jumping on their bandwagon — even though they were outgained by the Vikings last week by -54 net yards. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Even after scoring 31 points last week, the Cowboys are averaging only 19.7 PPG along with 335.0 total YPG in their last three games. Dallas also surrendered 430 yards to the Vikings last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys are last in the league by allowing 31.8 PPG — and they are surrendering 36.8 PPG at home along with 396.2 total YPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and the Cowboys have long been Fool’s Gold when favored at home as they have failed to pay off those winning tickets in 46 of their last 78 home games laying the points. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as a favorite. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while the Football team has only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Despite their losing record, Washington is outgaining their opponents by +8.2 net Yards-Per-Game. They have lost all three of their close games decided by one scoring possession. They are winless on the road despite outgaining those opponents by +19.0 net YPG. The Football Team has been the best pass defense in the league that is holding their opponents to just 195 passing YPG. Led by rookie defensive end Chase Young, Washington is tied for third in the NFL with 32 sacks. The offense should turn the ball over less with the veteran Alex Smith under center. While his mobility is not the same as it was before his leg injury last year, he is finding his rhythm as a passer again. Smith has thrown for 325 and 390 yards in his previous two games before completing 17 of 25 passes for 166 yards in the winning effort last week. The Football Team is averaging 397.0 total YPG in their last three games with Smith starting under center. And while the Cowboys are allowing 6.1 Yards-Per-Play this season, the Football team has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 25 games against teams that allow at least 6.0 YPP.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 trips to Dallas to play the Cowboys — and the underdog has covered the point spread in 28 of the last 41 meetings between these two teams in this rivalry. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Football Team (123) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (121) and the Detroit Lions (122). THE SITUATION: Houston (3-7) has won two of their last three games with their 27-20 upset victory at home against New England last week as a 2.5-point underdog. Detroit (4-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 20-0 loss at Carolina as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The final injury reports make a push a solid Under play into a very good one on a short week. The Texan ruled out wide receivers Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb out this week their quad and toe injuries — leaving quarterback Deshaun Watson missing key weapons in a wide receiver corps that was already missing DeAndre Hopkins this season from that ill-fated trade that the now-deposed Bill O’Brien made in the offseason. Now Detroit has declared this morning that rookie running back DeAndre Swift will not play as he is not ready to return to action from the concussion he suffered two games ago. The Lions are already without wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola to injury. There just simply not much skill-position talent on the field for a game with the Total set in the 50s. Houston has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home. The Texans did surrender 435 yards in their game on Sunday with the Patriots averaging 6.8 Yards-Per-Play. Houston has then played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Texans are averaging only 20.3 PPG along with 338.7 total YPG in their last three contests. They go back on the road where they are scoring 22.2 PPG while averaging just 329.8 total YPG. Houston has played a decisive 49 of their last 8 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Furthermore, Houston has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in November. Detroit has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss as a road favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns as a road favorite. And while the Lions have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Detroit surrendered 374 yards to the Panthers’ offense quarterbacked by P.J. Walker — yet they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. On offense, the Lions have scored only 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 320.0 total YPG over that span. They managed only 185 yards last week. I suspect Matthew Stafford will be a starting quarterback in the playoffs next season — but it will not be in a Lions uniform. At this point of the season, he is very banged up — and he does not have enough weapons.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions were embarrassed by being shutout last week — but trying to fix all those problems on a short week when undermanned is too much to overcome. I think their defense will play better — but the loss of Swift for this game really hurts (and cemented my call this morning). 25* NFL CBS-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (121) and the Detroit Lions (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (473) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-16 win against Seattle as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-3) has won four of their last five contests with their 46-23 victory in Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Seahawks to help them secure that victory — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after earning a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. And while Los Angeles gained 389 yards against the Seattle defense, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in the last game. The Seahawks lack much of a pass rush — and quarterback Jared Goff thrives when not facing pressure. But he will face plenty of pressure tonight against this Bucs defense that is second in the NFL with a pressure rate of 27.4% and who ranks fourth in the league in sacks. Goff is completing only 35.8% of his passes when encountering pressure which ranks 31st of the 35 qualifying quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season. His Quarterback Rating under pressure is just 36.8 which is 32nd in the league. Goff will not have his rock at left tackle in Andrew Whitworth who is out at least six weeks with a knee injury. But Los Angeles can lean on their elite defense that leads the league in points allowed (18.7 PPG), total yardage (296.4 YPG), Yards-Per-Play allowed (4.78), and opponent’s Passer Rating (81.0). This defense travels — they are holding their home hosts to just 276.2 total YPG. The Rams flexed their muscles against the outstanding Seahawks offense under QB Russell Wilson as they gained only 333 total yards with that final score cruising Under the 55 point total. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an Under in their last game. The Rams have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC foes. Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bucs ran the ball 37 times for 210 rushing yards against the Panthers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay will likely rely on their rushing attack against Aaron Donald and this elite Rams defense that began the week tied for second in the NFL with 31 sacks. Quarterback Tom Brady has been sacked 14 times this season — with nine of them occurring in their two games against New Orleans and their game against Chicago which accounts for their three losses. The Bucs beat up on the bad teams in the league — they are 7-0 against teams with a defense ranked outside the top-ten in yards allowed while averaging 35.8 PPG in those contests. But they are winless in their three games against teams with a top-ten total defense while averaging just 15 PPG. Tampa Bay also has an elite defense of their own that ranks tops in the NFL by the DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. The Buccaneers are third in the league by allowing only 300.3 total YPG while owning the best-run defense that holds their opponents to just 76.6 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played a scoring fest last year that Tampa Bay won by a 55-40 score as a 9-point underdog. That game was in late-September with Jameis Winston the Buccaneers’ gunslinging quarterback. The Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (473) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (473) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-16 win against Seattle as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-3) has won four of their last five contests with their 46-23 victory in Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game against the Seahawks — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Rams also generated 389 yards of offense in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Jared Goff is only completing 62.8% of his passes on the road as compared to his 71.4% mark when playing at home — but he is averaging 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt on the road versus his 7.5 YPA mark when at home His Quarterback Rating declines dips from a 97.2 mark at home to a 93.2 mark on the road — so perhaps the conventional wisdom that Goff has disparate home/road splits is a bit overplayed? He will not have his rock at left tackle in Andrew Whitworth who is out at least six weeks with a knee injury. But Los Angeles can lean on their elite defense that leads the league in points allowed (18.7 PPG), total yardage (296.4 YPG), Yards-Per-Play allowed (4.78), and opponent’s Passer Rating (81.0). This defense travels — they are holding their home hosts to just 276.2 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Buccaneers outgained the Panthers by +357 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 200 yards. I don’t love this situation for Tampa Bay. Head coach Bruce Arians identified that his team was “really tired” having played ten straight weeks with a bye. Arians gave the team three days off which may help — but it is certainly not an advantage. The Bucs have also been listless in prime-time games with a 1-2 record with their lone win being their listless effort to begin the month at home against the Giants where they only won by a 25-23 score. Tampa Bay beats up on the bad teams in the league — they are 7-0 against teams with a defense ranked outside the top-ten in yards allowed while averaging 35.8 PPG in those contests. But they are winless in their three games against teams with a top-ten total defense while averaging just 15 PPG. Quarterback Tom Brady has been sacked 14 times this season — with nine of them occurring in their two games against New Orleans and their game against Chicago which accounts for their three losses. Led by Aaron Donald, the Rams began the week tied for second in the NFL with 31 sacks. Brady passed for 341 yards against the Panthers — but the Bucs are just 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They return home to Tampa Bay where they are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to 7 points. Furthermore, the Buccaneers are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angels will also have revenge on their minds after getting blasted at home to the Buccaneers with Jameis Winston last year by a 55-40 score despite being a 9-point favorite in that September 29th game. That result may not matter much to Brady but it does to head coach Sean McVay and this Rams team. The Bucs are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (473) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (8-1) has won four games in a row after their 33-31 win against Carolina two Sundays ago as a 10-point favorite. Las Vegas (6-3) has won three straight games with their 37-12 victory against Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City should build off their momentum as they are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Chiefs surrendered 435 yards to the Panthers in their winning effort last week, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 4-0 with an average winning margin of +13.2 PPG while outgaining these opponents by +89.8 net YPG. Kansas City is 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as the favorite. Of course, this situation also has head coach Andy Reid coming off a bye week — and his teams at KC and Philadelphia have gone 24-4 in his career with the bye week to prepare. His teams have covered the point spread in 19 of those 28 games. I tend to think that intangible may no longer translate into point spread value since it is so well-documented — but it doesn’t hurt! Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games after a win. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Las Vegas benefited against the Broncos with a +5 net turnover margin. The Raiders are getting outgained this season by -7.8 net YPG despite their winning record. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in all three games of their winning streak — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs’ lone loss this season was their 40-32 setback at home to the Raiders as a 10-point favorite on October 11th. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when avenging an upset loss. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (471) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (8-1) has won four games in a row after their 33-31 win against Carolina two Sundays ago as a 10-point favorite. Las Vegas (6-3) has won three straight games with their 37-12 victory against Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders handed the Chiefs their lone loss of the season on October 11th with their 40-32 upset victory in Kansas City as a 10-point underdog. Las Vegas surprised the Chiefs’ defense by abandoning their ball-control conservative offense with several aggressive deep shots down the field from quarterback Derek Carr. The veteran Raiders’ signal-caller passed for 219 yards from deep throws which are — by far — his season-high in that category. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will have his defense ready for these deep throws this time around. Look for the Jon Gruden offense to focus primarily on ball-control and winning the time of possession by running the ball and burning the clock. During their three-game winning streak, the Raiders have averaged 190.7 rushing YPG which is the second-best mark in the league over that span. They are averaging only 138 passing YPG during that span which is the second-lowest mark in the league. This commitment to the run has helped Las Vegas defense hold these last three opponents to just 14.7 PPG and 325.3 total YPG with opposing quarterback’s posting just a collective 68.1 Passer Rating. The Raiders have gained at least 160 rushing yards in three straight games — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in three straight games. Las Vegas has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win over a divisional rival — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least three touchdowns against an AFC West foe. The Raiders stay at home where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. Las Vegas did have a COVID scare this week but it looks like the only defensive player they will not have available is defensive lineman Clelin Ferrell. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chiefs had also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The KC defense has continued to improve under Spagnuolo as they are allowing only 20.3 PPG this season. In their four road games, the Chiefs are holding their home hosts to just 18.3 PPG along with 331.0 total YPG. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as a favorite. The Chiefs have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 22 of their last 31 meetings Under the Total. Expect this rematch to be a lower-scoring game than the first meeting that saw 72 combined points scored. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (476) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (475). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-6) has lost two straight games after their 37-12 loss at Las Vegas last Sunday as a 3.5-point underdog. Miami (6-3) has won five straight games after their 29-21 win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: We have taken Denver the last two weeks to only get burned by the inconsistent play of Drew Lock — so I endorse this after much trepidation. But simply, it will be the regret that I never forget if we do not fade the Dolphins in this spot — more on that below. On the Broncos side of the ledger, they should play better after Lock’s four turnovers helped produce a -5 net turnover margin in that loss to the Raiders. Denver has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They also have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 16 home games after a loss by double-digits to an AFC West foe, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 13 of these games. Additionally, Denver has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points. Miami is SO due for a visit from the Regression Gods after winning and covering the point spread in five straight games. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. Miami is getting it done from smoke and mirrors and special teams and defensive touchdowns. They had been outgained in their previous two games before outgaining the Chargers by 7 yards after their 280-yard output last week. The Tua Tagovailoa offense is averaging just 245.7 total YPG which would get someone like Kirk Cousins lambasted if not complemented by all the mistakes the opposition has been making. The Dolphins are being outgained by -53.9 net YPG this season — and in their three games, since Tagovailoa took over, they have been outgained by -149.6 net YPG. That is not a typo.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49.5 point range. Denver is injured — and I am not sure if it is good or bad that Lock has been upgraded to probable with his rib injury. Trust the process with this one — especially with the Dolphins’ odds moving to them laying more than a field goal on the road. I am not going to be surprised if the Broncos pull the upset — but take the points for insurance. 20* NFL Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Denver Broncos (476) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (406) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (405). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-3) looks to bounce back from their 23-17 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite last week for Sunday Night Football. Tennessee (6-3) also looks to rebound from a 34-17 loss at Indianapolis on Thursday Night Football last week where they were a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a revenge situation for Baltimore, who got clocked by the Titans in the AFC Divisional round last year at home by a 28-12 score despite being a 10-point favorite. Derrick Henry ran right over the Ravens’ defense with 195 rushing yards in that game. After having the interior of their run defense exposed like that, Baltimore signed defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams to shore up that part of their defense. Problem solved, right? Unfortunately, injuries will keep both of those players out for this game. So, fade the Ravens then, right? Well, not so fast. Sure, I wish those players were available — but it was not just Henry that did in Baltimore in that playoff game. QB Lamar Jackson committed three turnovers in that game, while the Ravens failed to convert on several 4th down opportunities that played a significant role in shifting the momentum of that game. If Lamar plays better — and the offense executes at a higher level — then Baltimore should take the Titans out of the position where they can pound the rock to Henry. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by +8.8 PPG due to their strong defense that is holding their opponents to just 18.3 PPG along with 323.0 total YPG. Baltimore’s defense is even stingier at home where they limit their guests to only 17.8 PPG along with just 312.3 YPG. Additionally, the Ravens have held their last three opponents to 289.3 total YPG. They outgained the Patriots last week by +49 net yards but they lost the turnover battle and weather played a major role in that game. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in November. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And while the Titans surrendered 293 passing yards to the Colts, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This Tennessee has regressed from that playoff game last year — they are allowing 398.1 total YPG this season. They are also dealing with a host of injuries themselves with potentially six starters out including defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and wide receiver Adam Humphries. Despite their 6-3 record, the Titans are being outgained by -24.8 net YPG this season. Over their last three games, they are being outscored by a touchdown while managing only 321.0 YPG which has translated into just 20.3 PPG. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. One final thing about this Titans team that should always be considered: they are simply a hot mess on special teams, especially with their punter and placekicker. A +10 net turnover margin is the reason why this team has overcome poor special teams play and losing the yardage battle to their opponents. But those turnover Gods are a fickle beast.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC rivals — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against AFC foes. I don’t love the injury situation for Baltimore — but it is not great with Tennessee either. The bottom line is that I will regret not investing in this situation at a 25* level. Let’s attack! 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (406) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (321) and the Seattle Seahawks (322). THE SITUATION: Arizona (6-3) has won four of their last five games after their 32-30 win against Buffalo as a 3-point favorite. Seattle (6-3) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 23-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Arizona has scored at least 30 points in five straight games — and they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in at least three straight games. Arizona is dealing with a host of injuries — especially on their defensive line which makes me a bit less concerned about the Seattle offensive line. Defensive end Zach Allen went on the Injured Reserve with an ankle injury — he is the fourth defensive linemen to get placed on the IR for this team. Nose tackle Corey Peters is already out the season with a knee and Pro Bowl linebacker Chandler Jones is on the IR with his biceps injury. Now defensive end Jordan Phillips has been declared out with a foot injury for tonight. This Cardinals defense has declined as of late (they really miss Jones). They are allowing 32.7 PPG over their last three games along with 417.7 YPG with all three of those opponents scoring at least 30 points. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 27 games in November, the Over is 19-7-1. Seattle has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a loss on the road to an NFC West foe. And while the Seahawks have lost the turnover battle in two straight games, they have then played 37 of their last 54 games Over the Total after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. Seattle has several injuries of their own — the absence of their starting cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Shaquille Griffin being the biggest problem for this team. The Seahawks surrendered 389 yards last week to the Rams without those two defensive backs — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. But the news on offense is a bit better. Starting center Ethan Pocic is also out tonight as he continues in the concussion protocol — and that is significant. But head coach Pete Carroll does expect backup center Kyle Fuller to play after the high ankle sprain he suffered on Sunday. That development was essential for me to endorse the Seahawks tonight. Carroll also expects wide receiver Tyler Lockett and running back Carlos Hyde to play as well. Seattle returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a favorite — and the Over is 10-3-1 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Seahawks have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 9-4-1 in Seattle’s last 14 games against NFC West rivals. And with the Seahawks looking to avenge a 37-34 upset loss in Arizona in overtime back on October 25th, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by 7 points or less. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona Cardinals (321) and the Seattle Seahawks (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (322) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (321). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-3) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 23-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3-point underdog. Arizona (6-3) has won four of their last five games after their 32-30 win against Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle should respond with a strong effort tonight. They are a decisive 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an NFC West opponent. They are also 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 51 of their last 83 games after losing two games in a row. And while Seattle has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Injuries have hit this team hard. I did not make a call on this game until Thursday, given the potential attrition to tonight’s roster. Cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Shaquille Griffin along with running back Chris Carson are not expected to play. Starting center Ethan Pocic is also out tonight as he continues in the concussion protocol — and that is significant. But head coach Pete Carroll does expect backup center Kyle Fuller to play after the high ankle sprain he suffered on Sunday. That development was essential for me to endorse the Seahawks tonight. Carroll also expects wide receiver Tyler Lockett and running back Carlos Hyde to play as well. Quarterback Russell Wilson needs to reduce his turnovers after being responsible for seven in the last two games. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in these last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The Seahawks defense is worst in the league by allowing 448.3 total YPG — but this unit has been playing better despite the losing streak. They have held their last three opponents to 386.7 YPG which is more than 60 YPG below their current season average. Safety Jamal Adams has been injured but he did return to register seven tackles with two sacks and a forced fumble against the Rams. The Seahawks have also recently acquired defensive linemen Carlos Dunlap and Snacks Harrison who should both improve the pass rush and run defense for this team. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the total set at 49.5 or higher. The Seahawks are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November. Arizona needed the miracle Hail Mary play from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins to steal that victory over the Bills last week. Yet the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Arizona is also dealing with a host of injuries — especially on their defensive line which makes me a bit less concerned about the Seattle offensive line. Defensive end Zach Allen went on the Injured Reserve with an ankle injury — he is the fourth defensive linemen to get placed on the IR for this team. Nose tackle Corey Peters is already out the season with a knee and Pro Bowl linebacker Chandler Jones is on the IR with his biceps injury. Now defensive end Jordan Phillips has been declared out with a foot injury for tonight. This Cardinals defense has declined as of late (they really miss Jones). They are allowing 32.7 PPG over their last three games along with 417.7 YPG with all three of those opponents scoring at least 30 points. Arizona has gained at least 438 yards in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 375 yards in their last game. And while they have rushed for at least 159 yards in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a Thursday night — and Seattle is 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Thursday night. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (322) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (275) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (275). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-5) has won two games in a row after their 34-20 win at home against Detroit as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (5-4) has lost three straight games after their 24-17 loss at Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago outgained the Eagles by +147 net yards in the losing effort last week. They limited Philadelphia to just 228 yards while generating 375 yards of offense. The Bears have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Turnovers are killing Chicago as they have lost the turnover battle in each of the games in their three-game losing streak. But the Bears have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 home games after losing the turnover battle in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 23 games after enduring at least a -1 net turnover margin in at least three straight games. Chicago returns home where they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 65 home games after losing two games in a row. They are also 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 home games as an underdog. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning at least two games in a row. Minnesota benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against the Lions — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after having at least a +3 net turnover margin in their last game. The Vikings defense has been a disappointment all season — they are allowing 29.3 PPG while surrendering 412.9 total YPG. Detroit gained 421 yards against them last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are getting outgained by -24.0 net YPG. Kirk Cousins will be making his tenth start on Monday Night Football where he has lost all nine previous games — and Minnesota failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against the Bears — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 14 of their last 17 games at Soldier Field. With the temperatures dropping into the low-40s, lets fade the road favorite dome team playing in cold weather. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bears (275) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (275) and the Chicago Bears (276). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-5) has won two games in a row after their 34-20 win at home against Detroit as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (5-4) has lost three straight games after their 24-17 loss at Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Minnesota has also played a decisive 43 of their last 40 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and this includes them playing nine of their last eleven games Under the Total after reaching at least 30 points in their last game. Behind running back Delvin Cook who rushed for 206 yards on 22 carries, the Vikings put up 275 rushing yards against the Lions defense — but they have then played 16 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Now they face this Bears’ defense that is 9th in the NFL by allowing only 101.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game when playing at home. Minnesota scores 24.1 PPG on the road while averaging 339.5 total YPG in their four road games — and those numbers are -3.1 PPG and —42.7 YPG below their season averages. The Vikings have also benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against the Lions. Yet they have played 29 of their last 59 games Under the Total including three of their last four after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game. Minnesota is playing better on defense as of late — they have held their last two opponents to 22 and 20 points which are both season lows. The Vikings have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. The Bears have not scored more than 23 points in six straight games. They did gain 375 yards last week against the Eagles — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Chicago is undermanned at the running back position right now with David Montgomery out as he goes through the concussion protocol and Tarik Cohen already out the year with his torn ACL. The Bears will rely on converted wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, Ryan Nall, and Artavis Pierce (along with perhaps Lamar Miller coming off their practice squad after missing all of last season with a torn ACL) as their running backs. Quarterback Nick Foles 52 pass attempts against the Eagles — and the Bears have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total after passing the ball at least 50 times in their last game. Chicago has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are scoring only 17.8 PPG while averaging 286.3 total YPG — but they are holding their opponents to just 19.3 PPG at Soldier Field. The Bears have played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. It will be cold on the south side of Chicago tonight with the temperatures dropping into the low-40s — and the Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in November. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games played in Chicago Under the Total. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (275) and the Chicago Bears (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots  (274) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (273). THE SITUATION: New England (3-5) snapped a four-game losing streak on Monday with their 30-27 victory over the New York Jets as a 9-point favorite. Baltimore (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 24-10 win at Indianapolis last Sunday as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road against an AFC East rival. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after losing four of their last five games. And in their last 5 games played on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football, New England has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in November. Baltimore covered the point spread in their upset win over Indianapolis — but that was just the first time in their last three games that they met point spread expectations. The Ravens have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. And in their last 5 games when favored, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: It is not often that a Bill Belichick-coached team is an underdog in Gillette Stadium — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home as an underdog. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots  (274) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (273) and the New England Patriots (274). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 24-10 win at Indianapolis last Sunday as a 1-point underdog. New England (3-5) snapped a four-game losing streak on Monday with their 30-27 victory over the New York Jets as a 9-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset win by at least two touchdowns as a road underdog. Baltimore has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning at least two of their last three games. And while that was the first time that the Ravens have covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. Baltimore is an excellent defensive team — they lead the NFL by allowing only 17.8 PPG. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 7 games played on field turf, Baltimore has played 6 of these games Under the Total. New England has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Patriots have also played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on a short week after an appearance on Monday Night Football. New England is scoring only 20.8 PPG which is 28th in the league — and that number drops to just 18.8 PPG while averaging jut 323.0 total YPG in their four games at home. Those are ominous numbers when considering that the Patriots have played only one top-ten defense this season — and quarterback Cam Newton managed only 98 passing yards in that game where they scored just 6 points. New England has played 4 of their last 5 game Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Patriots have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: Weather will likely play a significant role in this game tonight. There is a 100% chance of rain with thunderstorms possible. Winds will be 9 to 18 MPH with gusts up to 47 MPH. This will negatively impact both passing games — and both Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton can struggle with their accuracy. Both defenses will likely get away with putting an extra defender in a box to stop the run given these conditions. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (273) and the New England Patriots (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (265) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (266). THE SITUATION: Denver (3-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-27 loss in Atlanta as a 4.5-point underdog. Las Vegas (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 31-26 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers last week as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win. Las Vegas won that game despite being outgained by -120 net yards. The Raiders may have won five of their eight games — but they are being outscored by -1.5 PPG while being outgained by -14.1 Yards-Per-Game. Now Vegas returns home where they are just 1-2 this season while being outscored by -7.3 net PPG and outgained by -36.3 net YPG. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Denver has lost two of their last three games but they outgained these opponents by +11.0 net YPG. The Broncos should play tough in this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Denver did generate 405 yards of offense in that game as they outgained the Falcons by 42 net yards. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Denver does expect to get starting cornerbacks A.J. Buoy and Bryce Callahan back for this game after they did not play against Atlanta. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Denver Broncos (265) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (277) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (278). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-6) has lost two games in a row with their 31-26 loss at home to Las Vegas last Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Miami (5-3) has won four games in a row with their 34-31 upset win at Arizona as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles lost their fifth game of the season on the final play once again last week with a dropped pass in the end zone taking victory away from head coach Anthony Lynn’s team. Everyone is banging away at Lynn this week for his game management late in the game. Perhaps some of these criticisms are valid — but this dynamic is overplayed. While I disagree with those in the analytics community that thinks winning close games is solely a function of luck, I certainly agree that winning and losing close games often is dependent on one or two plays — and often those plays experience plenty of variance regarding the random events that take place within them (like dropping a touchdown pass). The ability to consistently play close games is the more predictable variable for this Chargers team than what happens in the final moments. Los Angeles’ has had a halftime lead six times this season. All six of their losses have been by seven points or less — and all those losses were by a combined 24 points. And going back to last year, the Chargers have seen 15 of their 17 losses decided by one scoring possession. What is more consistent is yardage numbers — and LA is outgaining their opponents by +61.5 net YPG. The Chargers are getting their ground game going to complement rookie QB, Justin Herbert, as they are averaging 146 rushing YPG over their last five games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row. They also have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chargers outgained the Raiders last week by +120 net yards as they held them to just 320 yards of offense. LA is 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games away from home. Miami was outgained by -130 net yards in their upset win last week. And that accomplishment came on the heels of their upset win over the Rams the previous week where they won despite being outgained by a whopping -326 net yards! The Dolphins scored two defensive touchdowns against the Rams before returning a 36-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown last week against the Cardinals. Scoring defensive touchdowns to overcome getting outgained by more than 100 YPG is simply not sustainable. Miami is being outgained by -61.5 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle at home by -106.8 net YPG. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 25 home games after a win by a field goal or less. And while Miami has won five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 home games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. Now this team returns home where they are an ugly 22-46-1 ATS in their last 69 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games as a dog getting up to 3 points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (277) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (256) minus points versus the Houston Texans (255). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (5-3) comes off their bye week having lost two of their last three games after their 16-6 upset loss at home to Las Vegas on November 1st as a 1-point favorite. Houston (2-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 27-25 win at Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit loss at home. They do expect to get running back Nick Chubb back for this game for he missed the last four games with an injury. Chubb and running back Kareem Hunt should have big days against this Texans defense that ranks last in the league by allowing 159.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The Browns are 3-1 at home with an average winning margin of +4.5 Points-Per-Game. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The  Browns are also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games as the favorite. Houston is due for a letdown as they are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while the Texans gained 374 yards in the last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Houston stays on the road for a second straight week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after playing their last game on the road. The Texans were outgained by -29 net yards to the Jaguars. They are just 1-3 on the road while being outscored by -6.3 PPG and being outgained by -91.3 net YPG. They are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road — and they are only 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Houston has lost and failed to cover the point spread in all five of their games this season against teams with a winning record — and all five of those teams have scored at least 30 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog — and they have not covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 20* NFL Blowout Bookie Buster with the Cleveland Browns (256) minus points versus the Houston Texans (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (121) and the Tennessee Titans (122). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (5-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 24-10 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 1-point favorite. Tennessee (6-2) ended a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 24-17 win against Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Indianapolis has played 32 of their last 43 games Over the Total after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road after an upset loss by at least 10 points. The Colts are scoring a healthy 26.0 PPG this season — and that mark has risen to a 27.3 PPG clip in their last three games with them averaging 378.3 total YPG during that span. Quarterback Philip Rivers is completing 67.9% of his passes with 2087 passing yards and a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average. And while tight end Jack Doyle is out for this game as he recovers from a concussion, Rivers will get wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, back from the groin injury that has kept him out the last few weeks. The Colts’ offensive line leads the league by allowing only eight sacks this season — and the pass rush is a weakness for the Titans. Rivers should have plenty of time to pick apart the Tennessee secondary. Indianapolis also leads the NFL by allowing only 290.0 total YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. The Colts have also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Tennessee has seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a win at home. And while the Titans shutout the Bears in the first half last week, they have then played 26 of their last 44 games Over the Total at home after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half of their last game. They stay at home where the Over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games — and the Over is also 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Tennessee has also played 4 straight home games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against AFC South opponents — and the Colts have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against divisional foes. And in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Tennessee, the game finished Over the Total 4 times. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (121) and the Tennessee Titans (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.