At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (141) and the San Francisco 49ers (142). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-8) snapped a three-game losing streak to make the playoffs with their 19-16 win in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (13-4) is on a ten-game winning streak after their 38-13 victory against Arizona as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Cardinals to just 255 yards in their victory last week. The Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 21 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an NFC West rival. San Francisco has the best defensive unit in the NFL when using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — they rank 2nd in the league Run Defense and 5th against the Pass according to those DVOA analytics. They allow only 16.3 Points-Per-Game — and they limit their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 303.8 Yards-Per-Game when playing at home. In their two games against the Seahawks this season, they held Seattle to only 20 combined points with the lone touchdown they surrendered taking place in garbage time in the second game between these teams in Seattle. Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy completed 15 of his 20 passes for 178 yards last week against the Cardinals — but the 49ers offense only gained just 311 yards against them. The Niners only generated 142 net passing yards after accounting for lost yards in sacks — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. San Francisco stays at home at Levi’s Stadium where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a home favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders in the playoffs. Seattle held the Rams to only 123 passing yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. The Seahawks have only given up 22 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Seattle ran for 197 yards against the Rams en route to 322 total yards — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game while also playing 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Seahawks will clearly try to slow this game down by running Kenneth Walker early and burning time off the clock. Seattle has played four straight Unders — and not only have they played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders, but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Seahawks go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Seattle has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the 49ers’ 21-13 win in Seattle on December 15th. Purdy completed 17 of 26 passes for 217 yards in that game — but head coach Pete Carroll and the Seahawks now have first-hand experience playing against the former Iowa State quarterback in addition to now three more games of tape against him. Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. Lastly, the weather forecast calls for wind and rain — and 49ers’ head coach Kyle Shanahan may reel in his play-calling with the rookie under center to not take unnecessary chances given those conditions. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (141) and the San Francisco 49ers (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (459) and the Green Bay Packers (460). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 41-17 victory against Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (8-8) has won four of five and seven of their last nine after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions generated 504 total yards of offense against the Bears — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Detroit has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread victory. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. And while the Lions held the Chicago offense to just 230 total yards, the Over is then 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 250 ads in their last game. The Over is also a decisive 34-16-2 in their last 52 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Detroit goes back on the road where they are allowing 399.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 25 of their last 32 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. And in their last 11 games after scoring 30 or more points, they have then played 10 of these games Over the Total. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. The Packers have also played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: It will be cold at Lambeau Field tonight with temperatures in the low-20s — but the winds are expected to be mild below 10 miles per hour with little chance of precipitation. Detroit upset the Packers in the first meeting between these teams by a 15-9 score as a 4-point underdog on November 6th. The Packers' offense is in a rhythm now having averaged 30.3 PPG in their last three games — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total against NFC North rivals. Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against divisional opponents. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (459) and the Green Bay Packers (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 41-17 victory against Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (8-8) has won four of five and seven of their last nine after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has finally gotten their act together after hitting rock bottom with a 4-8 record going into December. Getting healthy has helped. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers finally embracing their running game has made a big difference as well. The Packers have run the ball at least 32 times in three of their last four games while generating at least 138 rushing yards behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Jones in the backfield. But perhaps the biggest tactical change Green Bay has embraced has been on the other side of the ball. The Packers are blitzing less — going from a 42% blitz rate in their first 15 games to just a 10% blitz rate in their last three. With the extra available pass defenders, Green Bay is playing multiple coverage schemes including more Cover-6 or two high safety looks. After ranking second-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to complete 59.3% of their passes, their opponent completion percentage has dropped to 52.6% in their last three games, ranking 5th in the NFL. The Packers have picked off seven passes in their last three games with just one dropped which is a significant improvement over ten interceptions in their first 13 games where they dropped six potential interceptions. In these last three games, Green Bay ranks 3rd in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Packers should build off their momentum now as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against an NFC North foe — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home after beating a divisional rival by 21 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last four games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four games in a row. Forcing more turnovers has played a big role in their recent success. The Packers have enjoyed a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight and three of their last four games. They have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after having a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after posting a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight games. Back at home at Lambeau Field, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against NFC rivals. Detroit may be due for a letdown since they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after beating an NFC North rival by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after winning four of their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They gained 504 yards against the Bears while averaging 7.41 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP. And while they held Chicago to just 230 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. The weather is expected to be in the low-20s tonight in Green Bay — which raises the issue of how Jared Goff and his small hands will perform under these conditions. At home under the dome, Goff has posted a 109.3 Passer Rating while completing 65.8% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and just three interceptions, a 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average, and 247.2 passing YPG. But in his seven starts on the road, Goff has an 87.6 Passer Rating while completing 63.7% of his passes with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions with a 7.4 YPA and only 174.2 passing YPG. It’s an issue. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be looking to avenge a 15-9 upset loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 4-point underdog on November 6th. The Lions rank 5th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders — but it will be difficult for Goff to replicate those numbers in these cold conditions. The Packers rank 3rd in the NFL in Rushing DVOA which will not be impacted by the cold weather — and they will be running against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in Opponent Rushing DVOA Allowed. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (461) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (462). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (7-9) has won two of their last three games after their 24-10 upset win at Washington as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (8-8) has won three in a row after their 16-13 upset win at Baltimore as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Browns upset the Commanders despite only gaining 301 total yards of offense last week. Deshaun Watson has been underwhelming in his return from suspension — he only completed 9 of 18 passes against Washington for 169 yards (although he did throw three touchdown passes). Despite Watson’s fully guaranteed contract that he signed as a free agent from Houston, head coach Kevin Stefanski has his team running the football with his high-priced sex offender. The Browns had not scored more than 13 points in three straight games before reaching 24 points last week. But the Cleveland defense has been outstanding as they have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games. This should be a motivated group to play the role of spoiler to prevent Pittsburgh from making the playoffs — and sending Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin out with his first losing season in his career would be the icing on the cake. Furthermore, Jadeveon Clowney left the team this week after claiming he wanted to play for a team that “wanted” him — and that prompted Myles Garrett to paraphrase Tomlin in claiming that his team does not want “hostage” playing for them. Expect the defensive to play inspired football with the malcontent Clowney now out of the picture. As it is, Cleveland has played  4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Browns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They held the Commanders to just 124 passing yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. And while they have played six straight Unders, Cleveland has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. In their last three games, they are generating just 277.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 15.7 Points-Per-Game — but they are holding their last three opponents to 276.0 YPG and a mere 10.0 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders in January. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Steelers have gained 351 yards against the Ravens with 198 of those yards coming on the ground. The Under is a decisive 47-22-2 in their last 71 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They held Baltimore to only 240 total yards — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. The Steelers have not allowed more than 17 points in six straight games. They have held their last three opponents to 216.7 YPG and 13.0 PPG. But Pittsburgh has scored less than 20 points in four of their last five contests. Back at home, the Steelers are gaining only 317.0 YPG and 18.7 PPG. They have played 9 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games when favored by three points or less. The Under is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh makes the playoffs with a win this afternoon combined with a New England loss and Miami loss — so the stakes are high for them. The Steelers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow AFC North opponents — and the Under is 3-0-1 in Cleveland’s last 4 games against divisional rivals. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (461) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). THE SITUATION: New York (7-9) lost their fifth straight game after their 23-6 loss at Seattle as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (8-8) has lost five games in a row as well after their 23-21 loss at New England as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has played themselves out of the playoff race — and their offense has been anemic by scoring just nine combined points in their last two games. But I expect second-year head coach Robert Saleh to rally his troops in the role of the spoiler against a reeling Dolphins team that still clings to postseason hopes. The Jets have suffered three-straight upset losses — so turning the tables this week would give them some measure of satisfaction. Quarterback Mike White is out for this game with a rib injury — but I consider that a blessing in disguise since that allows for the veteran Joe Flacco to play under center this afternoon. Flacco may not be the quarterback of the future — but he is a savvy veteran with a Super Bowl championship on his resume. In limited time this season, he has thrown for 902 yards with five touchdowns and just three interceptions.  White thew two interceptions last week in the loss to the Seahawks. Flacco will be using this game as an audition to serve as a backup next season — hopefully, for him, a playoff contender. New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 9 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 6 points in their last game. Flacco will not have any druthers playing in a hostile environment — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 road games with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range. Furthermore, the decision to sign Mike Glennon as backup quarterback signals that Teddy Bridgewater will probably not be available — and that means rookie Skyler Thompson gets the start under center. The 6th round pick out of Kansas State is completing only 54% of his 74 passes this season. He has thrown only one touchdown pass while tossing three interceptions — and his low 5.2 yards-per-attempt mark is concerning given the weapons and speed the Dolphins have on offense. It looks like starting left tackle Teron Armstead will not play with the foot injury that has him doubtful. This Jets' defense remains quite good — they hold their home hosts to just 308.3 total Yards-Per-Game which results in just 18.6 Points-Per-Game. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by three points or less. Additionally, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Miami needs to win this game and then hope New England loses to Buffalo to make the playoffs — but there are rumors that the entire coaching staff will be fired if they do not make the playoffs. I think rookie head coach Mike McDaniel is a bit overrated because I don’t think the inventive play-calling he picked up from Kyle Shanahan necessarily qualifies him for the Hall of Fame quite yet. McDaniel has had some bumps this season — mostly with game management but also with the Tua Tagovailoa situation. Overall, I think he is doing fine and deserves another year — but the team’s owner dreams of Sean Payton or Jim Harbaugh coaching his team. Needless to say, I don’t like the vibes, once again, within this organization. 25* AFC East Underdog of the Year with the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (457) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-13 loss to Dallas as a 14-point underdog last Thursday, December 29th. Jacksonville (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 31-3 win at Houston as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel rested most of his starters last week — but now he gets back running back Derrick Henry along with defensive stalwarts like Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons for this showdown that will determine the AFC South title. Despite the six-game losing streak, don’t underestimate Vrabel’s ability to manage this game to impose his will of this being a grind-it-out slugfest. Tennessee ranks 2nd in the league in Run Defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have not given up more than 87 rushing yards in five straight games. The Titans have played three straight Unders under Vrabel — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing three or more Unders in a row. Tennessee is also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. They go back on the road where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games. Vrabel will keep Joshua Dobbs under center this week after he completed 20 of 39 passes for 232 yards against the Cowboys last week. While he only ran the ball three times for 12 yards, look for the former Tennessee Volunteers quarterback to be used much more in designed runs in this contest. Jacksonville followed up their 19-3 victory on the road against the New York Jets with their four-touchdown victory against the Texans last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning two straight games by 14 or more points. The Jaguars have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after winning their previous game by 28 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than nine points in two straight games. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears to have taken the next step in his development in the second half of this season — but he has been helped by an effective running game that will probably struggle to get going against an at full-strength Titans defensive front. This will be Lawrence’s biggest game in his NFL career. Jacksonville returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as a favorite of up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: While commissioner Roger Goodell talks about “competitive equity” to defend the owners’ decision yesterday to change the written rules regarding playoff procedures to potentially set up neutral field games in the AFC playoffs, the league simultaneously shafted the Jaguars in this contest by requiring them to play on a short week against a Titans team that had extra days off after playing on a Thursday. Frankly, this game should be the Sunday night game to offer Jacksonville a normal week of rest and preparation. Tennessee has a huge situational edge that Vrabel was able to magnify by resting his key starters. As it is, the Titans have won five of the last six meetings between these two teams. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 8 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Jaguars in Jacksonville. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted Deal with Tennessee Titans (457) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-13 loss to Dallas as a 14-point underdog last Thursday, December 29th. Jacksonville (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 31-3 win at Houston as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Titans head coach Mike Vrabel rested most of his starters last week — but now he gets back running back Derrick Henry along with defensive stalwarts like Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons for this showdown that will determine the AFC South title. Don’t underestimate Vrabel’s ability to manage this game to impose his will of this being a grind-it-out slugfest. Tennessee ranks 2nd in the league in Run Defense using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have not given up more than 87 rushing yards in five straight games. The Titans have then played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games. They did give up 361 yards to the Cowboys last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after giving up 350 or more yards in their last game. The Titans go back on the road where they are scoring only 17.1 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 269.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. The formula for success in this contest will be to keep running Henry who looks primed for at least 30 carries in this contest. But the Titans will have to rely on Joshua Dobbs at quarterback who had thrown only 17 career passes in the NFL before making his first career start last week against the Cowboys. Dobbs accounted for himself pretty well against the Dallas team — he completed 20 of 39 passes for 232 yards. But the Jaguars will benefit from the game tape they now have on Dobbs for this contest. Jacksonville has only allowed six combined points in their last two games albeit against similarly less-than-ideal quarterbacking situations with Houston and the New York Jets. They held the Texans to just 277 total yards after limiting the Jets to only 227 yards the previous week. The Jags have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. Houston only ran for 84 yards against them last week — and the Jaguars have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Jacksonville ran for 169 yards against the Texans — making it the third straight game where they gained at least 147 yards on the ground. But the Jaguars have then played 4 straight Unders after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears to have taken the next step in his development in the second half of this season — but he has been helped by an effective running game that will probably struggle to get going against an at full-strength Titans defensive front. Jacksonville returns home where they are holding their opponents to 19.5 PPG. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — Tennessee has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents including four of their last five games Under the Total against divisional rivals. These two teams have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. 25* NFL ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) and the Baltimore Ravens (108). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-8) has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five — after their 13-10 win against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four — and seven of their last nine — after their 17-9 victory against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh has held their last three opponents to 239.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has translated into only 14.0 Points-Per-Game. The Steelers held the Raiders to just 201 total yards last week with Las Vegas only gaining 58 rushing yards on the ground. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and Pittsburgh has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to less than 90 rushing yards. The Steelers have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. They go back on the road where the Under is a decisive 47-22-1 in their last 70 games away from home. Baltimore has held their last four opponents to 14 points or less — but they have not scored more than 17 points in those four contests and are averaging just 11.5 PPG during that span. The Ravens have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. If the Ravens’ offense was limited under Lamar Jackson this season without a legitimate number-one wide receiver after trading away Hollywood Brown in the offseason, then things have been even worse with Tyler Huntley under center for the injured Jackson (who has not yet been cleared to play). Huntley completed only nine of his 17 passes last week for just 115 yards. He added 26 yards on the ground — but he is not nearly the same threat with his legs as Jackson. Huntley has only one touchdown passes in his four games this season — and he is averaging just 138 passing YPG and 5.8 yards per attempt. He is getting sacked once in every 15 dropbacks. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. They stay at home where they have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 20-6-2 in the Ravens’ last 28 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers are looking to avenge a 16-14 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog on December 11th — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. These two teams have played 4 straight Unders — and the Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Baltimore. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-8) has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five — after their 13-10 win against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four — and seven of their last nine — after their 17-9 victory against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh is playing good football as of late — and it starts with their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 239.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has translated into only 14.0 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 PPG and outgaining them by +95.0 net YPG. Kenny Pickett returned at quarterback last week and completed 26 of 39 passes for 244 yards. He did throw a touchdown along with an interception — but that pick was his first one in five starts. He is completing 65.2% of his passes in his rookie season. The Steelers outgained the Raiders last week by +149 while holding them to just 201 total yards. Las Vegas only gained 58 rushing yards last week — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as an underdog getting up to three points. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 26 games in January under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 16-7-3 ATS. Baltimore is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point-spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have held their last four opponents to 14 points or less — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. But Baltimore has not scored more than 17 points in those four contests — they are averaging just 11.5 PPG during that span. If the Ravens’ offense was limited under Lamar Jackson this season without a legitimate number-one wide receiver after trading away Hollywood Brown in the offseason, then things have been even worse with Tyler Huntley under center for the injured Jackson (who has not yet been cleared to play). Huntley completed only nine of his 17 passes last week for just 115 yards. He added 26 yards on the ground — but he is not nearly the same threat with his legs as Jackson. Huntley has only one touchdown passes in his four games this season — and he is averaging just 138 passing YPG and 5.8 yards per attempt. He is getting sacked once in every 15 dropbacks. Baltimore stays at home where they are getting outgained in yardage despite their 5-2 record. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games when favored by seven points or less. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers are looking to avenge a 16-14 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog on December 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (12-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 27-24 win against the New York Giants as a 4.5-point favorite on December 24th. Green Bay (7-8) has won three straight games after their 26-20 upset win at Miami as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kirk Cousins had another good game against the Giants — he completed 34 of 48 passes for 299 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. In his last four games, Cousins has thrown for 1357 yards for a 339 passing Yards-Per-Game average — and he has tossed ten touchdowns during that span. The Vikings have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after passing for at least 350 yards in their last game. Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Vikings generated 353 yards of offense in that game — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. But Minnesota also gave up 435 yards to the Giants in that game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teas with a losing record at home. Green Bay has found their offensive identity (finally) — they are scoring 26.5 PPG in their last six games. The key to the Packers' offensive success has been to lean into their dynamic running back duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. In Green Bay’s last four games, those two running backs have 117 combined touches for 635 yards with six touchdowns. The Packers have covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They go back home where they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Green Bay has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total against fellow NFC North rivals — and the Vikings have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against divisional foes. Green Bay is looking to avenge a 23-7 loss in Minnesota on September 11th — and the Packers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings at Lambeau Field Over the Total. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-8) has lost five games in a row after their 19-14 upset loss to Houston as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Dallas (11-4) has won five of their last six games after their 40-34 win against Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: I had been planning a 25* play on the Titans earlier in the week given the initial circumstances. But given all the players that Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel is resting — and his decision earlier today (that I suspected might be happening) that he is resting rookie quarterback Malik Willis for Joshua Dobbs (picked up off the Detroit Lions practice squad last week) — then I simply cannot invest 25* money into this side play. Now Dallas is going to rest players eventually as well — so I am investing 10* money into the Titans as a near 14-point dog out of mostly principle. The Cowboys know that they have this game in hand against the Tennessee backups — and Dallas has been sluggish as a double-digit favorite. They only beat the New York Giants by a 28-20 score as a 10-point favorite in November. They beat Houston by a 23-17 score as a 17-point favorite on December 11th. Even in their 54-19 victory at home against Indianapolis to begin the month was a close game with them taking a 21-19 lead into the fourth quarter before turnovers turned the momentum of that game. Dallas is prone to letdowns as well — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 30 games on the road in the last two weeks of the season, they have failed to cover the point spread 21 times. What can I say that is positive about Tennessee, right now? Well … it takes a lot to not cover a point spread in the 13-point range. Dobbs is a journeyman who played his college ball at Tennessee — but he has mobility and will have the green light to generate yards with his legs (and he is very motivated since this is his audition to the entire league tonight). Rookie running back Hassan Haskins is good after leading Michigan to the College Football Playoff Semifinals last year. The Cowboys can be run on — they have allowed at least 106 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Even worse, three of their last eight opponents have gained 192 rushing yards against them. Even with the Titans' injuries on their offensive line last week against the Texans, they still got 184 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last game. And while Tennessee has only scored 28 combined points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home after not scoring more than 14 points in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have clinched the top wildcard spot in the NFC playoff race but they are two games behind Philadelphia in the NFC East race — so they probably cannot improve their playoff positioning. In other words, Dallas is going to rest their players once this game is in hand. At that point, I just the value in all these points with the home underdog is too much to pass up. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a Thursday. 10* NFL Dallas-Tennessee Amazon Prime Special with the Tennessee Titans (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Tennessee Titans (102). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-4) has won five of their last six games after their 40-34 win against Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Tennessee (7-8) has lost five games in a row after their 19-14 upset loss to Houston as a 3-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The tenor of this game has changed significantly from Monday morning to late Thursday afternoon. It is better to get the play right than to get the play out early. At this point, with neither team having anything at stake regarding playoff implications, I expect this to be a fast-played game with plenty of running plays to burn time off the clock with the hope to get it over with as soon as possible. The worst-case scenario for both teams is an injury. Tennessee makes the playoffs with a victory next week against Jacksonville — this is why head coach Mike Vrabel is resting key starters including running back Derrick Henry and, as he announced this afternoon, rookie quarterback Malik Willis. Joshua Dobbs, who they picked up off the Detroit Lions practice squad just eight days ago, gets the start. While Dobbs does not know the Titans offense, he still remembers how to hand off the ball — to rookie running back Hassan Haskins tonight behind a beat-up offensive line ravaged with injuries. Tennessee has only scored 14 points in each of their last two games relying on their starters with both those games finishing Under the Total. The Titans have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. Tennessee is playing solid defense still after holding their last two opponents to just 36 combined points (including the LA Chargers). The Texans only ran for 70 yards en route to their 285 total yards of offense — and the Titans have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, Houston has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas will not play running back Tony Pollard tonight — and I don’t expect many of the first-string offense to play into the second half in this one since they have clinched the top NFC wildcard slot but probably cannot catch Philadelphia to win the NFC East. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win against an NFC East rival. And while they had a +3 net turnover margin last week against the Eagles, they have then played 6 straight road games Under the Total after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. Dallas has played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road when favored — and the Titans have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (101) and the Tennessee Titans (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (481) and the Indianapolis Colts (482). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) has two straight games — and three of their last four — after their 17-14 win against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Indianapolis (4-9-1) has lost four straight games — and seven of their last eight contests — after their 39-36 loss in overtime at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory — and their defense will have something to prove tonight after giving up 36 points in the second half to the Vikings last week. Indianapolis gave up 518 total yards to Minnesota last week — but they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game. The defense has played well for long stretches before collapsing in the second half. The Indy defense ranks 11th in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — and they improve to 10th in the league when using their weighted numbers that privilege recent results. The Colts will run the football to keep Justin Herbert off the field even without the injured Jonathan Taylor at running back. They ran for 171 yards against the Vikings — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. They return home where they hold their guests to just 322.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Additionally, Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while Justin Herbert completed 28 of 42 passes for 313 yards against the Titans, the Chargers have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest. I can’t wait to watch Justin Herbert play for Sean Payton. In the meantime, he is struggling under current offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The Chargers are bottom-six in Early Down Success Rate and Early Down Efficiency which is then asking Herbert to bail them out too often on third-and-long. In their last three games, Los Angeles is scoring only 20.0 PPG. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total in December — and the Colts have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total in games played in December. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (481) and the Indianapolis Colts (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.                            

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-9-1) has lost four straight games — and seven of their last eight contests — after their 39-36 loss in overtime at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Los Angeles (8-6) has two straight games — and three of their last four — after their 17-14 win against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Watching Tom Brady last night was excruciating — and I had long concluded that these rumors that he is going to go play for San Francisco or Las Vegas next year as a joke since he is a 45-year old QB with diminishing skills (but the Raiders may still decide to bring him here on as an attraction on the strip). And Tennessee was brutal for us on Saturday. But yet, here we go with the darn Indianapolis Colts tonight (in a situation I have been thinking about for weeks). I know interim head coach Jeff Saturday is a joke. But allow me to offer the gentle reminder that we are betting numbers rather than teams. We have Monday Night Football home dog getting more than a field goal coming off the biggest blown lead in NFL history after going into halftime with a 33-0 lead against the Vikings — and, oh, it’s against a Brandon Staley-coached team. And, by the way, Nick Foles may be an upgrade at quarterback for Indianapolis because he can at least throw the football down the field still (as opposed to Matt Ryan). Success in sports gambling requires being willing to invest in bad teams (with the point spread, of course). In the NFL right now, it is pretty much all bad teams, in one way or another. If one wants to only invest in "good" NFL teams, well, then that is a recipe for passing on the entire card. If you need to hold your nose and look away, I don’t blame you. The Rams played great yesterday after being awful for us on Monday. These bad teams are also fickle. Irrespective of Jeff Saturday still deluding himself into thinking he still has a chance to get another head coaching job, the Colts players are embarrassed. It was only two weeks ago when they got demolished by a 33-0 score in the fourth quarter alone against Dallas. This team has been a laughing stock on national television for two straight weeks — so we are talking about professional pride at this point. As it is, the Colts have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. They did cover the point spread for the first time in their last three games against Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home to Lucas Oil Stadium where they are outgaining their opponents in yardage. Indianapolis is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The defense has played well for long stretches before collapsing in the second half — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Indy defense ranks 11th in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — and they improve to 10th in the league when using their weighted numbers that privilege recent results. Foles is making just his second start in over two years — but he held his own for Chicago last year by completing 24 of 35 passes for 250 yards while averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in a 25-24 victory against Seattle which included him orchestrating a late fourth quarter drive. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. Los Angeles is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The inconsistent Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Los Angeles is 4-3 on the road but still getting outgained in yardage. The defense ranks 22nd in the NFL in weighted Defensive DVOA. They rank 28th in Run Defense DVOA — and that unit is not getting any help from an offense that has passed the ball 51 times per game in their last four games. I can’t wait to watch Justin Herbert play for Sean Payton. In the meantime, he is struggling under offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The Chargers are bottom-six in Early Down Success Rate and Early Down Efficiency which is then asking Herbert to bail them out too often on third-and-long. In their last three games, Los Angeles is scoring only 20.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games this season getting 3.5 or more points including both of their games at home under those circumstances. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) and the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 34-23 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (4-10) has lost four games in a row after their 24-15 loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Buccaneers' defense for the loss to the Bengals last week as they held the potent Cincinnati offense to just 237 total yards. Tampa Bay has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. Tampa Bay ranks 9th in the league in DVOA Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders with top-12 ranks against both the run and the pass. They may have given up 28.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they held those three opponents to just 313.0 YPG. On the road, they are holding their home hosts to 317.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona is on their third-string quarterback tonight after the concussion to Colt McCoy (who is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league) last week after he was replacing Kyler Murray who may be out another year with his torn ACL. The Cardinals have to turn to Trace McSorley under center. The former Penn State quarterback is very limited in his skill set after being mostly a runner in college. He completed only 7 of 15 passes for 95 yards last week coming in after McCoy was knocked out of the game — and he threw two interceptions. In the four NFL games he has played, he has completed only 51.7% of his 29 career passes with three interceptions and no touchdowns. He averages only 5.7 yards-per-attempt. The Buccaneers will be able to put eight defenders in the box to stop the run while daring McSorley to beat them in the passing game. This is all very bad news for an offense that was only scoring 15.5 PPG in their last four games before having to turn to McSorley. The Cardinals only gained 240 yards last week in their last at Denver — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) and the Arizona Cardinals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 34-23 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (4-10) has lost four games in a row after their 24-15 loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has lost six of their last nine games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games. But the books still have them as a road favorite in the touchdown range. It may look easy for many to simply take the home underdog out of principle — but let’s not take the cheese. This Buccaneers team is going to continue to work hard with the playoffs — and an automatic home game in the first round by winning the NFC South — still in their control. Tampa Bay actually outgained the Bengals last week by 159 net yards. They gained 396 yards against the stout Cincinnati defense with Tom Brady completing 30 of 44 passes for 312 yards with two touchdown passes. It was the Buccaneers’ -3 net turnover margin that played a big role in their loss. Tampa Bay held the Bengals’ offense to just 237 total yards — and they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after holding their last opponent to no more than 250 yards. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. The deeper metrics indicate that the Buccaneers should be seeing better results than their win-loss record indicates. They are outgaining their opponents by +28.0 net Yards-Per-Game. They rank 9th in the league in DVOA Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders with top-12 ranks against both the run and the pass. They have given up 28.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they held those three opponents to just 313.0 YPG. On the road, they are outgaining their opponents in yardage while holding their home hosts to 317.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. Despite their recent losing streak, Tampa Bay has outgained their last three opponents by +43.0 net YPG. Injuries have hit this team hard this season — especially on offense with their offensive line and their wide receiving corps. But this makeshift offensive line is starting to play better at this point of the season — and Brady finally has all his weapons back in the receiving game. Running the football has been an issue — but they are now getting productivity from rookie Rachaad White has 291 rushing yards in the last five games on 69 carries. Here now comes this Cardinals team that ranks 29th in Defensive DVOA against the run — and they allow opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Arizona is a dumpster fire of a hot mess — to mix some metaphors. General manager Steve Keim is on a leave of absence. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury let it slip this week that he wants out of the organization with broken relationships with Keim, the owner, and Kyler Murray (who is out for perhaps the next year with his torn ACL). The team is a M*A*S*H unit with a bevy of injuries on both sides of the football that has exposed an already aging roster. And with the concussion to Colt McCoy (who is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league), the Cardinals have to turn to Trace McSorley under center. The former Penn State quarterback is very limited in his skill set after being mostly a runner in college. He completed only 7 of 15 passes for 95 yards last week coming in after McCoy was knocked out of the game — and he threw two interceptions. In the four NFL games he has played, he has completed only 51.7% of his 29 career passes with three interceptions and no touchdowns. He averages only 5.7 yards-per-attempt. The Buccaneers will be able to put eight defenders in the box to stop the run while daring McSorley to beat them in the passing game. This is all very bad news for an offense that was only scoring 15.5 PPG in their last four games before having to turn to their third-string quarterback. To compound matters, Arizona is 1-6 at home where they are getting outscored by -7.3 PPG and outgained by -64.4 net YPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: To put it kindly, Kingsbury is not one of the best coaches in the NFL. It is telling that the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home in the second half of the season. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the second half of the season. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (6-8) has won four of their last five games after their 30-24 win against New England as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Pittsburgh (6-8) has won three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders gained only 308 yards of offense in their victory against the Patriots last week — but they held New England to just 318 total yards. Las Vegas has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Raiders go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Las Vegas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh held the Panthers to just 209 total yards in their victory last week. The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. The Under is also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. Pittsburgh held Carolina to only 21 rushing yards — and they have played 25 of their last 35 home games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last game. The Steelers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Pittsburgh has also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by three points or less. Furthermore, the Under is 35-15-1 in the Steelers’ last 51 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The weather will not help the offenses tonight with temperatures in the single digits Fahrenheit with the wind chill factor in the negatives. Even worse, winds will be in the 14 MPH range with gusts up to 30 MPH which will impact the vertical passing games while making it very difficult to kick field goals. As it is, the Raiders have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (473) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-8) has won three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (6-8) has won four of their last five games after their 30-24 win against New England as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders needed one of biggest boneheaded plays in the history of the NFL to survive last week’s game at home against the Patriots — but the final nail to end their playoff hopes will probably be struck tonight. Las Vegas beat New England last week on Chandler Jones’ 48-yard fumble recovery after the Patriots’ Jacoby Meyers’ ill-advised lateral despite that game looking destined for overtime. The Raiders will not enjoy tonight’s weather in Pittsburgh with temperates in the single digits and the wind chill projected at -11. This team left Las Vegas weather that will be in the 50s here today — and, of course, they play their home games in the domed and air-conditioned Allegiant Stadium. Quarterback Derek Carr simply does not have much experience playing in cold weather in his career even going back to his college days at Fresno State. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. They gave up 206 rushing yards to the Patriots while getting outrushed by 135 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after getting outrushed by 75 or more yards. And while Las Vegas has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Carr has only won one game as a starting quarterback on the road in a prime-time game in his career. Despite having Davante Adams as his top wide receiver this season, he has only thrown for over 300 yards once this year. Carr’s unwillingness to scramble also limits his effectiveness at this point in his career. In his last seven games, he has run the ball only six times for 21 yards despite still being pretty adept with his feet. He has not rushed for a red zone touchdown in two years — making it easier for the opposing defense since he represents virtually zero threat to take off with the ball. The Raiders have turned the ball over seven times in their last four games — and Carr is responsible for six interceptions during that stretch. And then there is the Raiders' defense which is the only team in the league this season to allow opposing quarterbacks to register a Passer Rating of over 100. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the points spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. With T.J. Watt healthy and back on the field, the Steelers are playing a stout defense that has held their last four opponents to just 16.3 Points-Per-Game and 278.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Pittsburgh outgained the Panthers last week by +116 net yards while holding them to just 209 total yards. They ran the ball 42 times for 156 yards which helped them control time of possession for 36:11 minutes — and Pittsburgh is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. Running back Damien Harris has rushed for five touchdowns in his last five games. And after Mitchell Trubisky led them to victory last week, the team gets back Kenny Pickett under center tonight who has won four of his last five starts when able to complete the game. The rookie is doing a great job of managing games — he has not thrown an interception in five straight games and 129 straight throws. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: I was taking Pittsburgh in this game even before the sad news regarding the death of Steelers’ legend Franco Harris. The NFL had already planned a big celebration recognizing the 50th anniversary of Harris’ “immaculate reception” touchdown catch against the Raiders — and Pittsburgh is inducting Harris into their Hall of Fame tonight. Now emotions will be heavy after Harris died in his sleep Wednesday night (after a day full of interviews plugging tonight’s festivities). Teams respond to moments like this. When Walter Payton died in 1999, the Chicago Bears traveled to Green Bay and upset the Packers by a 14-13 score despite being a 9-point underdog and having not won at Lambeau Field since 1993. With so many former players in attendance tonight, head coach Mike Tomlin will impart the value this organization puts on tradition — and it will be an energized crowd to get one for Franco. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-7) has lost four games in a row after their 17-14 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Houston (1-12-1) has lost nine games in a row after their 30-24 loss in overtime against Kansas City as a 14.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: Despite the recent slide, Tennessee can still retain a one-game lead in the AFC South race with a victory this afternoon. The Titans will have to accomplish this feat without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill who is out perhaps the season with an ankle injury — so it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Regardless, this is going to be the Derrick Henry show today. The bell-cow running back loves playing against the Texans. In his last four games against Houston, Henry has run the ball 120 times for 892 rushing yards — that is an average of 220 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 30 carries per contest. He is averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Carry in those last four games -- and he has scored nine touchdowns in those contests. He should feast once again against a Texans-run defense that ranks second-to-last in the NFL in DVOA Run Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders. Houston allows 148 rushing YPG on 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. And while the Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Tennessee returns home where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Titans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow AFC South rivals. Houston has played Dallas and Kansas City to close games in the last two weeks — but they are 8-18-2 ATS in their last 28 games after a point spread win. The Texans took the Chiefs to overtime last week despite surrendering 502 total yards and getting outgained by -283 net yards. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Texans are splitting time at quarterback between Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel — but they combined to pass for only 125 yards last week. Houston only generated 219 total yards against Kansas City — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Houston is getting outgained by -107.5 net YPG this season. On the road, they are getting outscored by -6.8 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog of seven points or less. In their last three games, they are getting outscored by -7.7 PPG and getting outgained by -127 net YPG. The Texans are riddled with injuries — headlined by rookie running back Dameon Pierce and wide receiver Nico Collins being out for this game. Houston will struggle to run the ball against this Titans defense led by Jeffery Simmons which is the top-rated against the run according to the DVOA metrics. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans will be looking to avenge a 17-10 loss at home to the Titans on October 30th in a game that Henry rushed for 219 yards with two touchdowns. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when motivated with revenge. Furthermore, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) and the New York Jets (452). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (6-8) has won two straight and three of their last four after their 40-38 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. New York (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 20-17 upset loss against Detroit as a 2-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have registered two straight upset victories after pulling the upset on the road in Tennessee against the Titans the previous week. They scored 76 combined points in those two games — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. And while they gained 192 rushing yards against the Cowboys last week, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last game. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has received plenty of accolades this week after engineering that upset win against the Cowboys. He is completing 70% of his lasses since Week Nine after completing 27 of 42 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns against the Dallas defense. While they rank 6th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders, they fall to 17th in Rushing DVOA. Making matters worse is the season-ending injury to starting left tackle, Cam Robinson. To compound these matters, the weather tonight will hurt the ability of this team to execute in the passing game. The weather will be in the low-40s which makes it harder on receivers (especially when used to Florida weather) to hold on to the football. Even worse, the winds will start in the 15 miles per hour range with gusts adding perhaps another 15-20 MPH — and that will be the challenge for Lawrence who does not have experience in these conditions. Lawrence is dealing with a toe injury that the cold weather may exacerbate. Jacksonville has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. New York allowed 359 total yards last week to the Lions — but they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game. New York also gets their stud defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back after he did not play last week. The Jets will lean on their outstanding defense tonight which ranks 3rd in the NFL in weighted DVOA that prioritizes the more recent results. Zach Wilson will be under center again for this game — and while I am nowhere close to being sold on this guy, he did play well against the Lions while looking relaxed on the sidelines despite getting demoted a few weeks ago for Mike White who is now out with his broken ribs. Given the weather conditions tonight, head coach Robert Saleh will not let offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur ask much of Wilson in the passing game. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home at MetLife Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 5 straight Unders against fellow AFC opponents. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (451) and the New York Jets (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). THE SITUATION: New York (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 20-17 upset loss against Detroit as a 2-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (6-8) has won two straight and three of their last four after their 40-38 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars have registered two straight upset victories after pulling the upset on the road in Tennessee against the Titans the previous week. But Jacksonville is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has received plenty of accolades this week after engineering that upset win against the Cowboys. He is completing 70% of his lasses since Week Nine after completing 27 of 42 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns against the Dallas defense. But Jacksonville is 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest. And while the Jaguars have leaned heavily on Lawrence by asking him to throw 42 passes in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after attempting 40 or more passes in two straight games. The lack of a reliable rushing game will hurt Jacksonville tonight. While they rank 6th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders, they fall to 17th in Rushing DVOA. Making matters worse is the season-ending injury to starting left tackle, Cam Robinson. To compound matters, the weather tonight will hurt the ability of this team to execute in the passing game. The weather will be in the low-40s which makes it harder on receivers (especially when used to Florida weather) to hold on to the football. Even worse, the winds will start in the 15 miles per hour range with gusts adding perhaps another 15-20 MPH — and that will be the challenge for Lawrence who does not have experience in these conditions. Lawrence is dealing with a toe injury that the cold weather may exacerbate. The play of the Jaguars’ defense is a concern as well. They allowed 397 total yards last week with 154 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 350 or more total yards. The Jaguars rank 28th in Defensive DVOA — and they have allowed their last three opponents to score 32.0 PPG and generate 399.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Jacksonville will now be without two of their best defensive players with linebacker Travon Walker (the top pick in the NFL draft) and defensive end Foley Fatukasi out for tonight’s game. Now the Jags play their third game on the road in their last four games on the road and on a short week under bad conditions for a Florida team. They are just 2-6 on the road while getting outgained by 55.9 net YPG. Jacksonville is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. New York has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Zach Wilson will be under center again for this game — and while I am nowhere close to being sold on this guy, he did play well against the Lions while looking relaxed on the sidelines despite getting demoted a few weeks ago for Mike White who is now out with his broken ribs. Wilson completed 18 of 35 passes for 317 yards with two touchdown passes and only one interception — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last game. Given the conditions tonight, head coach Robert Saleh will not let offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur ask much of Wilson in the passing game. The Jets will lean on their outstanding defense tonight which ranks 3rd in the NFL in weighted DVOA that prioritizes the more recent results. New York also gets their stud defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back after he did not play last week. The Lions gained 359 total yards last week — but the Jets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Jets only ran for 50 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after not rushing for more than 50 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow AFC foes. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (531) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (532). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 17-16 upset win at home against Las Vegas as a 6-point underdog on December 8th. Green Bay (5-8) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-19 victory at Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: The “handicapper” technical play is probably with Green Bay tonight — but I am relenting to my skepticism of that perspective for this one. Are the bookies telling us to take Green Bay with what I consider an overly high spread — or are the oddsmakers simply reacting to an overvalued Packers team by the market? I think it’s the latter. Green Bay has won only twice by more than a field goal this season — and both victories came against the Bears. While they are technically still alive in the NFC wildcard race, they would need a complete collapse from several teams ahead of them in the standings while winning out their final four games. Call me skeptical that this situation inspires Aaron Rodgers who has been in “don’t blame me” mode since training camp started. Even in their victory against Chicago two weeks ago, the Packers got outgained by -52 net yards after allowing the meager Bears offense to generate 409 total yards. It was a +3 net turnover margin that helped them win that game. With injuries to left tackle David Bakhtiari and linebacker Rashon Gary, this team is missing two of their best players moving forward. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Green Bay has allowed 27 or more points in three of their last four games and six of their last nine. In their last three contests, they are surrendering 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring 28.7 Points-Per-Game. The Packers return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games this season. While the Packers got the benefit of the bye, I am not sure how helpful that is this late in the season for a Super Bowl contender that is now likely out of the playoffs. Los Angeles has extra time to rest and prepare as well coming off the Thursday game last week. Baker Mayfield gets the start at quarterback after orchestrating the Hollywood-ending comeback victory against the Raiders. He should have a much better feel for Sean McVay’s offense now. This has been a lost season for the defending champions — and, for the record, I thought they were the most vulnerable reigning champion to suffer a hangover from a Super Bowl win in at least 20 years. But now I think the acquisition of Mayfield brings some life and energy to this team who can now revel in the role of the spoiler on national television. I’m not the biggest Mayfield fan — but it is hard to deny that he plays better in the tole of the feisty underdog. He also demonstrated plenty of heart and toughness playing through several injuries for Cleveland last year. He’s healthy now — and finally playing for a non-dysfunctional NFL organization for the first time in his career. McVay still wants to center his play-calling on the run game — and he should have success against this Packers run defense that ranks last in the league missing the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. Cam Akers is showing signs of life with 200 rushing yards in the last four weeks with three touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games played in December. Look for them to keep this game close with McVay embracing the rare opportunity to play the spoiler role. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (531) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (531) and Green Bay Packers (532). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped their six-game losing streak with their 17-16 upset win at home against Las Vegas as a 6-point underdog on December 8th. Green Bay (5-8) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-19 victory at Chicago as a 3.5-point favorite on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Packers’ head coach Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers has finally embraced the potential of the Green Bay offense if they commit to running the ball more behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. After bottoming out with just 12 rushing attempts in a 23-21 loss at Washington, the Packers have since run the ball at least 19 times in their last six games including 31 or more rushes in three of those games. They have gained at least 106 yards on the ground in five of those six games — and they gained 175 or more on the ground three times. Sticking with the running game helps Rodgers be more effective in the passing attack since defenders get burned for simply stepping back to defend the pass. It is not a coincidence that Christian Watson has stepped up as a deep threat in the second half of the season coinciding with these increased rushing efforts. Watson has now caught 11 of his 23 targets of more than 10 air yards — resulting in 294 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Green Bay has scored 28 or more points in three of their last four games. The Packers ran for 175 yards on 32 carries against the Bears — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last contest. Additionally, Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Toal after a point-spread victory. They have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. But the play of the Packers' defense remains an issue — especially since the season-ending injury to linebacker Rashan Gary. The Packers have allowed 27 or more points in three of their last four games and six of their last nine. In their last three contests, they are surrendering 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in their opponents scoring 28.7 Points-Per-Game. The Bears gained 409 yards against them two weeks ago — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. Green Bay returns home where Rodgers has been much more effective with a Passer Rating of 104 with 12 touchdowns and just one interception. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home at Lambeau Field. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the benefit of the mini-bye after playing on a Thursday. They have also played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. Baker Mayfield gets the start at quarterback after orchestrating the Hollywood-ending comeback victory against the Raiders. He should have a much better feel for Sean McVay’s offense now. This has been a lost season for the defending champions — and, for the record, I thought they were the most vulnerable reigning champion to suffer a hangover from a Super Bowl win in at least 20 years. But now I think the acquisition of Mayfield brings some life and energy to this team who can now revel in the role of the spoiler on national television. I’m not the biggest Mayfield fan — but it is hard to deny that he plays better in the tole of the feisty underdog. He also demonstrated plenty of heart and toughness playing through several injuries for Cleveland last year. He’s healthy now — and finally playing for a non-dysfunctional NFL organization for the first time in his career. McVay still wants to center his play-calling on the run game — and he should have success against this Packers run defense that ranks last in the league missing the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. Cam Akers is showing signs of life with 200 rushing yards in the last four weeks with three touchdowns. But the Rams’ defense misses Aaron Donald who will be out once again for this game. They have given up 392.3 total YPG in their last three games — and they have surrendered 26 or more points in four of their last five games. They did hold the Raiders to 137 passing yards — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in December. With both of these teams essentially out of the playoffs, look for a wild one tonight. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (531) and Green Bay Packers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Washington Commanders (304). THE SITUATION: New York (7-5-1) is winless in their last four games after their 48-22 loss to Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (7-5-1) is unbeaten in their last four games after their 20-20 tie with the Giants as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: After getting embarrassed last win in Philadelphia, New York should respond with a strong effort against an opponent they are very familiar with after just playing them two weeks ago. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New York got torched for 253 rushing yards by Philadelphia — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. The Giants go back on the road where they are only allowing 22.8 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road. Washington is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point-spread victory. They have the benefit of the bye for this rematch — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with an extra week of rest and preparation. They get the Giants at home this time — but they are only scoring 18.7 PPG and averaging 326.0 total YPG. The Commanders are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in December — and they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games against NFC East rivals. The Washington defense is outstanding — but they are vulnerable against effective passing attacks as they rank just 14th against the pass using the DVOA Defensive Ratings at Football Outsiders. The Giants rank 10th in Offensive DVOA — and they are 10th in the league in Passing DVOA despite the conventional wisdom surrounding quarterback Daniel Jones.

FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and Washington is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with New York Giants (303) plus the points versus the Washington Commanders (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Washington Commanders (304). THE SITUATION: New York (7-5-1) is winless in their last four games after their 48-22 loss to Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Washington (7-5-1) is unbeaten in their last four games after their 20-20 tie with the Giants as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago on December 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants only gained 304 total yards last week in their loss to the Eagles. After thriving under rookie head coach Brian Daboll, defenses have adjusted to running back Saquon Barkley who perhaps is beginning to tire in the back half of the season. Barkley ran the ball only nine times last week for 28 yards — and he has only 38 carries in his last three games for 130 rushing yards. The Under is 15-5-2 in New York’s last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. The Under is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a point-spread loss. And while the Giants got outgained by -133 net yards, they have then played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after getting outgained by 100 or more yards in their last contest. New York got torched for 253 rushing yards by Philadelphia — but the Under is then 5-2-2 in their last 9 games after giving up 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. The Giants go back on the road where they are only allowing 22.8 Points-Per-Game. But in their last three games, they are scoring just 20.7 PPG and generating just 306.7 total Yards-Per-Game. New York has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total as an underdog. Washington has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Commanders ran for 165 yards against the Giants two weeks ago — and the Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last game. They get the rematch at home where they are only scoring 18.7 PPG and averaging 326.0 total YPG. But the Washington defense is playing as well as any defensive unit in the league lately. They have held their last three opponents to 14.3 PPG and 279.3 YPG — and this group will be even better if and when Chase Young returns to action from his injury (which could be tonight). The Commanders have played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders at home in the second half of the season. They have also played 4 straight Unders at home against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Under is 19-7-1 in Washington’s last 27 games against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games in December. The Commanders have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as the favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-1-1 in Washington’s last 6 games against fellow NFC East rivals — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Washington Commanders (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (319) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (320). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (5-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 16-14 upset loss against Baltimore as a 1.5-point favorite last Sunday. Carolina (5-8) has won two straight and three of their last four games after a 30-24 upset win in Seattle as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh endured a -2 net turnover last week against their arch-rivals — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. And while they only gained 65 yards on the ground against the stout Ravens run defense, they are then 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Steelers have still rushed for 471 yards in their last three games for a robust 157 rushing Yards-Per-Game average. Pittsburgh has held six of their last eight opponents to 18 or fewer points. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. With rookie Kenny Pickett out for this game, head coach Mike Tomlin turns back to Mitchell Trubisky under center — and the Steelers probably still have the edge at quarterback against the Panthers’ Sam Darnold. He is completing only 58% of his passes and averaging 148 passing Yards-Per-Game since taking over as the starter. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Now the Panthers return home where they are just 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home when favored. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record — and they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers (319) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (5-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five contests — after their 19-16 loss to Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 4th. New Orleans (4-9) has lost two in a row — and four of their last five as well — after a 17-16 loss at Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday Night Football on December 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons only gained 306 total yards against the Steelers in their last game. They are scoring just 18.7 Points-Per-Game and generating a mere 306.0 total YPG in their last three contests. It is this ineptitude on offense that played a role in head coach Arthur Smith benching Marcus Mariota and turning to rookie Desmond Ridder at quarterback. The former Cincinnati Bearcat has yet to appear in an NFL game this season — this will be a tough test in a very hostile environment against a stout defense. With tight end Kyle Pitts out the season with a torn MCL, this remains a limited Falcons’ offense that lacks weapons in the passing attack. Ridder may offer a more credible vertical threat in the passing game, but Smith is not going to ask Ridder to do too much — and this will remain a run-first team. Atlanta is scoring only 19.0 PPG and generating 290.8 total YPG in their six games on the road. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Falcons have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Atlanta surrendered 154 rushing yards to the Steelers in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. On the road, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams that lack a winning record at home. New Orleans only gained 298 yards in their loss to the Buccaneers just under two weeks ago. They have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Saints have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a bye week. And while they only rushed for 66 yards against Tampa Bay, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 90 rushing yards in their last contest. New Orleans is scoring only 14.3 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 293.7 total YPG in those games. But the Saints are staying competitive by holding those last three opponents to 16.7 PPG — and they only allow 307.0 total YPG in their six games at home. Additionally, New Orleans has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in December — and the Saints have played 5 straight Unders in December. This is a rematch of New Orleans’ 27-26 win in Atlanta as a 5.5-point favorite on September 11th — but these two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome Under the Total. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Buffalo Bills (310). THE SITUATION: Miami (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Buffalo (10-3) has won four games in a row after their 20-12 victory against the New York Jets as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: How the Dolphins will handle the weather has received plenty of attention in the media this week. As of the weather reports Friday night, the low temperature expected Saturday night in Buffalo is 26 degrees with modest winds from 5-10 miles per hour. And while up to 24 inches of snow is expected, most of that should have already taken place by tomorrow night. There may be some flurries — and to quote Dan Marino, who most certainly has communicated this to Tua Tagovailoa this week, his mantra was “if it’s snowin’, I’m throwin’!” The snowy conditions can actually help the offense — especially with the Dolphins' speed at wide receiver with Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle — since defenders have to react but might not have as good of traction on the ground. Frankly, head coach Mike McDaniel needs to step up now after two weeks where his schemes were exposed by man-to-man coverage on these wideouts while pressuring them on the line of scrimmage and pushing them off their quick slant passing routes that Tagovailoa has feasted on this season. Most defenses were playing zone coverages against the Dolphins because of their speed at wide receiver — now McDaniel needs to dial up plays to give Tagovailoa enough time in the pocket to go deep against what will likely be single coverage. With running back Jeff Wilson questionable with a hip injury, Miami is not likely to lean heavily on their rushing attack in this game. Tagovailoa only passed for 145 yards last week against the Chargers with the Dolphins just generating 219 total yards. But they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to gain more than 150 passing yards — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last contest. Injuries have hit this team hard in the defensive secondary. Safety Brandon Jones and cornerback Nik Needham are both out the season while cornerback Byron Jones has been on the PUP list since July. Now safety Eric Rowe and cornerback Elijah Campbell are out for this game with injuries challenging the team’s depth — and that is a bad way to face Josh Allen. They stay on the road for the third straight week where they are getting outscored by -6.5 PPG while allowing 31.4 PPG and 387.1 YPG. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win at home against an AFC East rival. And while the Bills have won eight of their last ten games, they have then played 27 of their last 40 games at home Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven contests. Buffalo has held their last two opponents to just 22 combined points — but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. The Bills miss Von Miller who is out the season with a torn ACL — he was their best pass rusher. They stay at home where they are scoring 31.2 PPG and generating 410.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total when hosting the Dolphins.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills will be motivated to avenge their 21-19 loss in the Miami heat on September 25th — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (309) and the Buffalo Bills (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-3) has won four games in a row after their 20-12 victory against the New York Jets as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.  Miami (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: How the Dolphins will handle the weather has received plenty of attention in the media this week. As of the weather reports Friday night, the low temperature expected Saturday night in Buffalo is 26 degrees with modest winds from 5-10 miles per hour. And while up to 24 inches of snow is expected, most of that should have already taken place by tomorrow night. There may be some flurries — but Tua Tagovailoa will probably not be playing on snow, so his experience with the Alabama winters will offer him some familiarity. Yes, I am worried about how Tagovailoa and his team will handle the cold weather. In his two previous starts in December and January, Tagovailoa completed only 55.2% of his passes while averaging just 5.9 yards-per-attempt and posting a loss Passer Rating of 58.8. Miami got outscored by 61 combined points in those two games. But what I am more concerned about with this Dolphins team is the travel grind they have been on that has led to this chilly environment as their final destination for a three-game road trip. Miami has spent the last two weeks in California playing in San Francisco and Los Angeles. That is a challenging road trip for any NFL team — but it is probably even worse for a southern team who felt the need to use heaters on the sidelines to adjust to the 50-degree weather in LA last week. Even more concerning is the defensive adjustment that the 49ers made against the Mike McDaniel passing attack. While most teams have played zone coverages to account for the speed of Miami wide receivers Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Niners played man-to-man coverage on these wideouts while pressuring them on the line of scrimmage and pushing them off their quick slant passing routes that Tagovailoa has feasted on this season. Tagovailoa thrives in this style of play given his ultra-quick release and sharp accuracy — but he gets into trouble if he has to turn to his second or third options. The Chargers copied this approach last week — and it is something the Bills are most likely going to continue. In his last two games, Tagovailoa has completed only 28 of 61 passes for a 45.9% completed percentage with just 440 passing yards, a lower 7.2 YPA average, and five sacks. Frankly, the Dolphins might be finally getting exposed as a solid but unspectacular team. They are only outscoring their opponents by +0.3 PPG and outgaining them by +17.0 net YPG. They have +3 net close wins decided by one scoring possession. Their five-game winning streak was all against teams currently with losing records with a combined 20-46-1 mark. When Detroit is the team with the best record during a five-game hot streak, perhaps you are a beneficiary of a favorable schedule? On the road, Miami is getting outscored by -6.5 PPG while allowing 31.4 PPG and 387.1 YPG.  The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. Injuries have hit this team hard in the defensive secondary. Safety Brandon Jones and cornerback Nik Needham are both out the season while cornerback Byron Jones has been on the PUP list since July. Now safety Eric Rowe and cornerback Elijah Campbell are out for this game with injuries challenging the team’s depth — and that is a bad way to face Josh Allen. Buffalo is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a point-spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Bills miss Von Miller who is out the season with a torn ACL — but this team stocked up with defensive linemen in the offseason providing them the depth to compensate for injuries. The Buffalo defense is allowing only 14.4 PPG and 292.3 YPG in their last three games — and they have only one touchdown in each of their last two games. The Bills are outscoring their opponents at home by +16.8 PPG due to an explosive offense that scores 31.2 PPG and generates 410.6 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45-point range. This team will embrace the cold weather — and Allen’s experience in chilly weather from his collegiate experience at Wyoming is a better preparation for what he will face than Tagovailoa’s winter experiences in Alabama. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Buffalo against the Bills. The Bills will be motivated to avenge their 21-19 loss in the Miami heat on September 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 7 points or less. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-6) has lost three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (9-4) has won six games in a row after their 35-7 victory against Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle has been a disaster in stopping the run after allowing 209.5 rushing YPG in their last four games. But they expect to have Kenneth Walker back at running back after he missed last week which will help them control the clock after their defense was on the field for 39:16 minutes against the Panthers. The Seahawks' defense simply got gassed last week by staying on the field while Carolina racked up first down after first down. Seattle should step up their game tonight after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games at home after getting upset in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 22.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And they are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games Thursday Night Football. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games on the road after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games on the road after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road to play in a hostile environment for the first time since October 30th (their lone road game last month was in Mexico against Arizona). Brock Purdy has been a pleasant surprise for the team — but as the book gets written on him as he puts accumulates for game tape with the Niners, this will be his first NFL appearance away from the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by up to three points. Purdy looks to get the start tonight despite his ribs and oblique injury — the rookie has a hard assignment on a short week and limited practice. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will likely have a run-heavy game plan tonight even without Elijah Mitchell who is back on the Injured List with an MCL injury. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out as well with an ankle and knee injury. This team could sure use Jeff Wilson who they traded to Miami after acquiring Christian McCaffrey. Remember when McCaffrey was only going to be just another weapon in this offense to not risk yet another injury? He looks to get a heavy workload tonight — and Seattle knows it. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE:  This is a rematch of the Niners' 27-7 victory at home on September 18th — and Seattle has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing with same-season revenge. San Francisco is just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games against the Seahawks — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Seattle. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Seattle Seahawks (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-4) has won six games in a row after their 35-7 victory against Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (7-6) has lost three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers’ defense stymied Tom Brady and the Buccaneers' offense by holding them to 322 total yards. This San Francisco defense has not allowed more than 17 points in six straight games — and their last three opponents have combined for just 24 total points. With this Niners' defense closer to full strength after dealing with injuries, they are making a strong case that they are the best defensive unit in the NFL. They are allowing only 15.2 Points-Per-Game and 286.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They rank 2nd and 5th in Run Defense and Pass Defense according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. San Francisco ranks 2nd in Defensive DVOA  overall and 1st in weighted Defensive DVOA which puts more emphasis on recent performances. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by three or more touchdowns — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. San Francisco will make it very difficult for the Seahawks to run the football — the 69 rushing yards Tampa Bay generated against them was actually the most yards they have allowed on the ground in their last six games. The 49ers have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road to play in a hostile environment for the first time since October 30th (their lone road game last month was in Mexico against Arizona). San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight games at home. They have also played 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Brock Purdy has been a pleasant surprise for the team — but as the book gets written on him as he puts accumulates for game tape with the Niners, this will be his first NFL appearance away from the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers have played 4 straight Unders after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. And while they have played two straight Overs with Purdy under center, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. Purdy looks to get the start tonight despite his ribs and oblique injury — the rookie has a hard assignment on a short week and limited practice. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will likely have a run-heavy game plan tonight even without Elijah Mitchell who is back on the Injured List with an MCL injury. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out as well with an ankle and knee injury. This team could sure use Jeff Wilson who they traded to Miami after acquiring Christian McCaffrey. Remember when McCaffrey was only going to be just another weapon in this offense to not risk yet another injury? He looks to get a heavy workload tonight — and Seattle knows it. The Seahawks have been a disaster in stopping the run after allowing 209.5 rushing YPG in their last four games. And they expect to have Kenneth Walker back at running back after he missed last week which will help them control the clock after their defense was on the field for 39:16 minutes against the Panthers. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 148 passing yards in their last two games — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 22.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Thursday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and San Francisco has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. This is a rematch of the Niners' 27-7 victory at home on September 18th — and the Seahawks have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals (128). THE SITUATION: New England (6-6) has lost two games in a row after their 24-10 loss to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog back on December 1st. Arizona (4-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five — after a 25-24 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They managed only 242 total yards of offense against the Bills last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. They go on the road where they have played 16 of their last 21 road games against a team with a losing record — and they have played 6 straight Unders when on the road and favored up to three points. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. It is no secret that New England is challenged on offense — and injuries on their offensive line along with running back Damien Harris and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers are not helping matters. The deeper analytics at Football Outsiders rank New England 25th in Offensive DVOA — ranking 26th in the run game and 22nd in the pass. But “offensive guru” Kliff Kingsbury with Kyler Murray at quarterback ranks 29th in the league in Offensive DVOA -- bottoming out at 27th in the run and 28th in the passing game. Murray is regressing — and it starts with his struggles against pressure. He has been sacked 18 times in his last three starts (all losses) — he got sacked once for every 12 of his dropbacks. His Passer Rating of 12.8 when under pressure is in the NFL. Now here comes Matthew Judon with his 13 sacks this season and this Patriots defense that ranks 3rd in the league by sacking the quarterback in 9.01% of their dropbacks. But it is not just handling pressure where Murray is struggling since he signed his large contract extension — it is when he is not dinking and dunking. In passes of at least 10 air yards (which is still technically considered intermediate), he has completed only 49 of 108 passes for a 45.4% completion percentage with two touchdowns on those throws but six interceptions. Furthermore, the 8.4 yards per attempt he is averaging on those throws is the third worst in the NFL — only Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco have lower YPA averages. The Cardinals have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a bye week. They stay at home where they are scoring just 22.8 Points-Per-Game and averaging 327.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the last four weeks of the regular season — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. New England has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). THE SITUATION: New England (6-6) has lost two games in a row after their 24-10 loss to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog back on December 1st. Arizona (4-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five — after a 25-24 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England comes off two straight losses — but they were against playoff teams, Minnesota and the Bills last week. Many observers are oh-so quick to criticize Bill Belichick since he has not had Super Bowl contenders since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay — but the sign of a great coach is that your teams are still playing at a .500 level and contending for playoff spots even without a franchise level quarterback. Winning half the games is the floor for Belichick (23-22 post-Brady) — and there are many highly regarded coaches in the league (Sean McVay, Kevin Stefanski, Matt LaFleur) who would love a .500 record right about now. Expect the Patriots to play well tonight as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games this season after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. New England gained only 242 total yards while getting outgained by -113 net yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after not generating at least 250 yards in their last game.  And while they have failed to cover the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Now the Patriots go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The thirstiest and lowest-hanging fruit of an argument to make is to criticize Belichick for appointing his former defensive coordinator (and disaster of a head coach in Detroit) Matt Patricia for being tabbed as the team’s offensive coordinator this season. The deeper analytics at Football Outsiders rank New England 25th in Offensive DVOA — ranking 26th in the run game and 22nd in the pass. But “offensive guru” Kliff Kingsbury with Kyler Murray at quarterback ranks 29th in the league in Offensive DVOA -- bottoming out at 27th in the run and 28th in the passing game. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. Murray is regressing — and it starts with his struggles against pressure. He has been sacked 18 times in his last three starts (all losses) — he got sacked once for every 12 of his dropbacks. His Passer Rating of 12.8 when under pressure is in the NFL. Now here comes Matthew Judon with his 13 sacks this season and this Patriots defense that ranks 3rd in the league by sacking the quarterback in 9.01% of their dropbacks. But it is not just handling pressure where Murray is struggling since he signed his large contract extension — it is when he is not dinking and dunking. In passes of at least 10 air yards (which is still technically considered intermediate), he has completed only 49 of 108 passes for a 45.4% completion percentage with two touchdowns on those throws but six interceptions. Furthermore, the 8.4 yards per attempt he is averaging on those throws is the third worst in the NFL — only Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco have lower YPA averages. Murray has also lost sixteen of his last twenty starts at home. Arizona is a bad home where they are just 1-5 this season while getting outscored by -6.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -74.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Carnivals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home in the second half of the season. Furthermore, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Say what you want about Belichick — but the Special Teams remain above average and his defense is elite. New England ranks 3rd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and ranking 8th against the run and 4th against the pass. This formula has helped the Patriots cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (120) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (119). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (8-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 33-17 loss at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins may have an 8-4 record — but they are only outscoring their opponents by +0.8 Points-Per-Game. Five of their eight victories were decided by one scoring possession. They are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Miami only gained 308 total yards against the 49ers — and their mere eight rushing attempts provided them only 33 yards of rushing. While rookie head coach Mike McDaniel is lauded by many as an offensive genius for the passing plays he can draw up, his teams can get lulled into passing the ball too much and burning his tiring defense. The Dolphins were only on offense for 19:26 minutes against the Niners. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Miami stayed out west this week for this second game on the road — and they allow their home hosts to score 32.8 Points-Per-Game while getting outscored by -6.6 net Points-Per-Game in their six road contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Los Angeles’ four of six losses have been decided by one scoring possession. They have still covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Justin Herbert completed 28 of 47 passes for 335 passing yards in the losing effort against the Raiders — and now he gets Mike Williams back this week to join up with Keenan Allen after both wide receivers have missed multiple games this season. While I cannot wait for Herbert to operate in a better-conceived offense next season (most likely designed by Sean Payton), he has a great opportunity to find success tonight against this Dolphins’ pass defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the analytics at Football Outsiders. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: This is the battle of the Game Management Challenged Head Coaches — I shudder at the thought of what the supposed “The Analytics” (that assumes that every statistical moment is the same and that momentum does not exist — it is just “hindsight bias,” a convenient psychological conclusion by these quants to evade what would otherwise be a prima-facie indictment of all their 4th down probability numbers) will compel these coaches to do tonight. The Special Teams DVOA numbers rate Miami as having the worst Special Teams in the NFL — and the Chargers come in at a solid 12th in those rankings. Los Angeles has been an underdog 4 times this season — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of these contests. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Chargers (120) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (119). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). THE SITUATION: Miami (8-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 33-17 loss at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (6-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins had scored at least 30 points in four straight games before getting stymied by the 49ers’ stout defense. Now playing this weak Chargers defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who struggled under the pressure of the San Francisco pass rush last week. Tagovailoa still leads the NFL in Passer Rating — and now he faces a defense that ranks 26th in the NFL using the weighted DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders that privileges the most recent results. Tagovailoa completed 18 of 33 passes for 295 yards with two touchdowns but two interceptions against the Niners. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Dolphins stayed out west this week for this second game on the road — and their offense generates 397.2 Yards-Per-Game away from home. But Miami also allows their home hosts to score 32.8 Points-Per-Game. The Dolphins have played 4 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. And while the Chargers average 353.7 total YPG, Miami has played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total against teams who average at least 350 YPG. Injuries have not helped the Los Angeles cause with linebacker Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C. Jackson among their best players that have been out for an extended basis — and star safety Derwin James is doubtful to play tonight after missing practice all week with a quad injury. But the defensive problems go deeper than that. Second-year head coach Brandon Staley has been ineffective in taking care of his side of the football after being hired after one season as the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. In hindsight, the Rams’ defensive success that year probably has much more to do with Aaron Donald than it did with Staley’s schemes which effectively deployed nickel and dime schemes with Donald still clogging the run lanes. The Chargers have allowed their last three opponents to generate 420.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game from these foes. Los Angeles returns home to SoFi Stadium where they are giving up 28.0 PPG. The Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Justin Herbert usually manages to keep his team competitive with four of the Chargers’ six losses being decided by one scoring possession. He completed 28 of 47 passes for 335 passing yards against the Raiders — and now he gets Mike Williams back this week to join up with Keenan Allen after both wide receivers have missed multiple games this season. Los Angeles gained 386 yards in that game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chargers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angles has played 5 of their last 6 games over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-8) has lost seven of their last nine games after their 40-14 loss at Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Tennessee (7-5) has lost two games in a row after a 35-10 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars managed only 266 total yards of offense in their loss to the Lions last week. They have not scored more than 17 points in four of their last six contests — and they are averaging just 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Jaguars have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while Jacksonville has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Jaguars stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Ryan Tannehill completed 14 of 22 passes for just 141 yards  — and he was relieved by rookie Malik Willis who completed 2 of his 4 passes for another 16 yards. The Titans managed to generate only 209 total yards of offense against the Eagles. They have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last games. That result appeared to be the final straw for ownership who fired general manager Jon Robinson earlier this week for, in large part, trading away wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia on draft day. The issue was never the importance of Brown — it was whether or not the organization was going to meet his eventual sky-high contract demands. In hindsight, trading him to Philly and then drafting Treylon Burks in the first round later that night. But Burks has been injured for much of the season — and he is questionable to play today after not practicing this week. Without Burks yet stepping up, the Titans' offense lacks a number-one target in the passing game. Injuries on the offensive line have compounded matters — most notably, left tackle Taylor Lewan is out the season. But perhaps the biggest concern for this offense relates to running back Derrick Henry who seems to have hit a wall. In his last four games, he has run the ball 75 times for just 208 rushing yards with only one touchdown. Not only is he averaging just 2.78 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and he has not generated more than 3.1 YPC in any of those four games. Tennessee has not scored more than 17 points in five of their last six games. And while the Jaguars' defense has been a disappointment, they are solid against the run railing 13th in the league using the DVOA analytics by Football Outsides. But the Titans' defense remains solid as their loss to Philadelphia was the first time they allowed more than 20 points since Week Three. They have held six of their last nine opponents to 17 or fewer points. They allowed 453 yards last week — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after alloying 350 or more yards in their last contest. They return home where they are allowing just 16.6 PPG — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (102) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (101). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-23 loss to Seattle as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (5-7) has won three in a row after their 27-20 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is a mess at quarterback with Matthew Stafford out the season with a spinal injury and backup John Wolford questionable with a neck injury. The Rams signed Baker Mayfield two days ago — and it looks like there is a good chance he will play tonight. I waited until this afternoon waiting for the updated report on who will start at quarterback tonight — head coach Sean McVay will wait on that decision until Wolford goes through pre-game workouts to see how his neck responds. If Wolford cannot go, then McVay will turn to either Bryce Perkins or Mayfield who has been in their building for just two days. No matter who is under center tonight, Los Angeles will want to establish the run to slow this game down — and they might have gotten their best game of the season last week from embattled running back Cam Akers last week who scored two touchdowns while running for 60 yards. Frankly, I am not surprised at all about the fall of this Rams team this season — I considered them the most likely Super Bowl winner in (at least) the last twenty years to suffer from a championship hangover. Playing a living in Los Angeles after surviving several close scares in the postseason last year combined with their lack of depth — I was selling this team in August. But I expect some championship pride to show up for this team on national television tonight — and they really do not have much reason to tank since their first-round draft pick belongs to Detroit in the Stafford trade. Granted, defensive tackle Aaron Donald and wide receiver Cooper Kupp are also all for this game — but that is why the Rams are getting six or so points at home. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a divisional rival. And while they have allowed 26 or more points in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 25 points in four straight games. Las Vegas' three-game winning streak included upset wins at Seattle and Denver before they rallied from a 10-point second-quarter deficit to beat the Chargers last week. The Raiders have gained at least 404 yards in three straight games after generating that amount of yardage last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Las Vegas has averaged 462.3 YPG in those last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 450 YPG in their last three games. But consistency has remained a problem for the Raiders under quarterback Derek Carr. Las Vegas gained 400 or more yards just once in their first nine games. Running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for 482 yards in those three contests — but he may not be able to maintain that level of effectiveness playing on a short week while being officially listed as questionable with a quad and calf injury. I do expect Jacobs to play — I just remain in doubt about how good he will be on three days of rest. The Raiders stay on the road for the third time in their last four games having scored just 21.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 308.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their seven contests away from home — and they are just 2-5 on the road. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. Furthermore, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in December — and Los Angeles is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in December. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Los Angeles Rams (102) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-7) has won three in a row after their 27-20 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-23 loss to Seattle as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After only gaining 400 or more yards once in their first nine games, the Raiders have topped the 400-yard threshold in three straight games after they gained 404 yards against the Chargers. But Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining 350 or more yards in their last contest. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for 482 yards in those three contests — but he may not be able to maintain that level of effectiveness playing on a short week while being officially listed as questionable with a quad and calf injury. I do expect Jacobs to play — I just remain in doubt about how good he will be on three days of rest. The Raiders held the Chargers to just 72 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Las Vegas stays on the road for the third time in their last four games having scored just 21.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 308.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their seven contests away from home — and they are just 2-5 on the road. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Los Angeles is a mess at quarterback with Matthew Stafford out the season with a spinal injury and backup John Wolford questionable with a neck injury. The Rams signed Baker Mayfield two days ago — and it looks like there is a good chance he will play tonight. I waited until this afternoon waiting for the updated report on who will start at quarterback tonight — head coach Sean McVay will wait on that decision until Wolford goes through pre-game workouts to see how his neck responds. If Wolford cannot go, then McVay will turn to either Bryce Perkins or Mayfield who has been in their building for just two days. No matter who is under center tonight, Los Angeles will want to establish the run to slow this game down. They gained 171 rushing yards last week against the Seahawks — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. The Rams have been a gigantic disappointment, especially on offense where they are scoring 16.8 PPG and averaging 281.3 YPG this season — and they are managing just 17.7 PPG and 284.3 YPG in their last three games. Los Angeles misses left tackle Andrew Whitworth who retired in the offseason — and subsequent injuries on the offensive line have made this unit a shell of the one that helped them win the Super Bowl last season. The Rams gave up 348 passing yards last week as well — but they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-0 loss at San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (5-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 23-17 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
 
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints’ offense hit rock bottom last week against the 49ers by failing to score a point and only generating 260 yards of offense. It is dangerous to fade offenses embarrassed by a shutout loss — but the Saints’ issues on offense go much deeper than just a bad day at the office. They are scoring just 12.3 PPG and averaging 256.3 total YPG in their last three games. Alvin Kamara seems to have lost a step — he is averaging only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in his last three games with only 163 rushing yards. He has added another 230 yards in the air in those three games — but the problem there is that he serves as a primary receiver for this team that lacks weapons at wideout. The offense misses a number-one option now that Michael Thomas is out the season. And then there are their problems at quarterback with Andy Dalton being given the nod over Jameis Winston since he is less turnover-prone. The Red Rifles’ frontline stats are solid this season — but it is fair to say he lacks juice. Let’s use one of our tools in MLB to break his numbers down further: home/road splits. In his six starts at home at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, Dalton has completed 68.5% of his passes averaging a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. But in his three starts on the road this season, he is completing 63.1% of his passes averaging 7.2 YPA with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. DVOA ranks the New Orleans offense 24th in the league — and their passing attack ranks 24th in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Saints are scoring just 18.3 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. But don’t sleep on this New Orleans defense that ranks 15th in the league in DVOA. They have held their last three opponents to 17.7 Points-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 345.8 total Yards-Per-Game when playing on the road. The Saints have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against NFC South opponents — and they have played 4 straight Unders in December. Tampa Bay has disappointed this season — and their fundamental flaw on the offensive line this year was made even worse with the lower-leg injury to Tristan Wirfs. They are scoring only 18.2 PPG this season — and they have scored just 18.0 PPG in their last three games. They have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Buccaneers' defense surrendered 367 yards to the Browns last week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing more than 350 yards after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Buccaneers are holding their opponents to 18.5 Points-Per-Game and 315.2 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 285.3 total YPG. The DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay as the 7th best defense in the NFL. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against division rivals. Tampa Bay has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games in Tampa Bay Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (5-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 23-17 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (4-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-0 loss at San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has disappointed this season — and their fundamental flaw on the offensive line this year was made even worse with the lower-leg injury to Tristan Wirfs. I appreciate the impact of this injury. But …  running the ball helps cover the weaknesses of a bad offensive line and the Buccaneers are starting to get nice contributions from rookie Rachaad White who has rushed for 169 yards in the last two games with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. A veteran quarterback with elite pocket presence helps with a bad offensive line as well — and here comes Tom Brady with the opportunity to still get his team into the postseason with a defense that remains outstanding two years removed from their Super Bowl victory in 2021. The Buccaneers return home after playing their last two games away from home in Germany and then Cleveland last week. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset on the road as a favorite. The Buccaneers are holding their opponents to 18.5 Points-Per-Game and 315.2 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 285.3 total YPG. The DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay as the 7th best defense in the NFL. New Orleans only gained 260 yards last week in their shutout loss to the  Niners. It is dangerous to fade teams embarrassed by a shutout loss — but the Saints’ issues on offense go much deeper than just a bad day at the office. They are scoring just 12.3 PPG and averaging 256.3 total YPG in their last three games. Alvin Kamara seems to have lost a step — he is averaging only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in his last three games with only 163 rushing yards. He has added another 230 yards in the air in those three games — but the problem there is that he serves as a primary receiver for this team that lacks weapons at wideout. The offense misses a number-one option now that Michael Thomas is out the season. And then there are their problems at quarterback with Andy Dalton being given the nod over Jameis Winston since he is less turnover-prone. The Red Rifles’ frontline stats are solid this season — but it is fair to say he lacks juice. Let’s use one of our tools in MLB to break his numbers down further: home/road splits. In his six starts at home at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, Dalton has completed 68.5% of his passes averaging a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. But in his three starts on the road this season, he is completing 63.1% of his passes averaging 7.2 YPA with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. Dalton versus the Tampa Bay defense seems to be the critical matchup that gives the Buccaneers the edge — especially with Kamara faltering as of late. DVOA ranks the New Orleans offense 24th in the league — and their passing attack ranks 24th in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Saints are bad on the road with a 1-5 record and scoring just 18.3 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: I had higher hopes for Dennis Allen as the head coach for the Saints this season — and he enters this month leading a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. I considered New Orleans’ revenge angle for this game and the sustained success they have had against Brady since he moved to Tampa Bay — but I still concluded the Bucs similarly handle them as they did on September 18th when they won 20-10 in New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-7-1) has lost two in a row and five of their last six contests after their 24-17 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (8-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 28-20 win against the New York Giants as a 10.5-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: I don’t think much of Jeff Saturday as an interim head coach — but the main benefit of his move from Jim Irsay’s drinking buddy to the leader of the 2022-23 team is that he had the leverage to install Matt Ryan back at quarterback. The Colts began the year as a .500 team — and they are still basically a .500 team. Despite their losing record, they are outgaining their opponents by +9.9 net Yards-Per-Game. The opportunity to take them as a double-digit underdog presents too much value to pass up. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Indy defense remains solid — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing only 308.9 YPG and they rank in the top half of the league at 13th according to the Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency ratings. They have held four of their last six opponents to 20 points or less. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They did outgain the Giants last week by +130 net yards on the strength of generating 430 yards of offense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after outgaining their previous opponent by +100 or more yards. And while the Cowboys have averaged 436.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three contests.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Indianapolis Colts (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-7-1) has lost two in a row and five of their last six contests after their 24-17 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (8-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 28-20 win against the New York Giants as a 10.5-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts managed only 290 yards of offense against the Steelers. They have not scored more than 17 points in five of their last six games and seven of their last nine contests. They have not scored more than 21 points in ten of their 12 games. They are averaging only 15.8 Points-Per-game on the season — and in their five games on the road, they are scoring just 11.7 PPG and averaging 311.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 4 straight Unders when playing on a short week after a game on Monday. And while the Colts endured a -2 net turnover margin against Pittsburgh, they have played 6 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Indy defense remains solid — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing only 308.9 YPG and they rank in the top half of the league at 13th according to the Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency ratings. They have held four of their last six opponents to 20 points or less. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range including 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in that range. Indianapolis has played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 42 games played in December, 30 of these games finished Under the Total. Dallas has the top-ranked defense using the DVOA analytics. They have held eight of their 11 opponents to 20 points or less with four of their opponents failing to score more than 10 points. They lead the NFL in sacks which likely spells a nightmare for the immobile statue that is the aging Matt Ryan tonight. They held the Giants to just 300 total yards in their Thanksgiving game. They outgained New York by +130 net yards — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by +100 or more yards. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys averaged 6.23 Yards-Per-Play against the Giants — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after averaging 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Dak Prescott completed 21 of 30 passes for 261 yards in the win — but Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 or more yards in their last game. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 16.8 PPG and 313.5 total YPG — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-24 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (4-7) pulled off their second-straight upset — both requiring overtime — in their 40-34 victory at Seattle as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Raiders are clinging to postseason hopes after losing seven of their first nine games this season in what has been a tumultuous first year under head coach Josh McDaniels. Surviving two straight overtimes is likely to be physically and emotionally draining after upsetting Denver on the road two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after pulling off two straight upsets. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they scored 31 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. The Raiders gained 576 yards last week against the Seahawks after generating 407 yards against the Broncos two weeks ago — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. Derek Carr completed 25 of 36 passes for 295 yards with three touchdown passes but two interceptions in the win — but Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Carr struggles against the Rams with a 1-3 record in his last four starts — and he has been sacked 13 times in those games for a sack rate of one in every 9.6 dropbacks. Furthermore, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. Las Vegas has the worst defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher including failing to cover the point spread in seven of those last ten circumstances. Additionally, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favored including five of their last seven games when laying the points. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Chargers were outrushed in the game by -116 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by 100 or more yards. They did enjoy a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Justin Herbert was exquisite in that game by completing 35 of 47 passes for 274 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions despite still being without wide receiver Mike Williams. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against divisional rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders will have revenge on their minds after losing in LA to the Chargers on September 11th by a 24-19 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Los Angeles still remembers losing in Vegas to the Raiders on the last Sunday night of the regular season that cost them a trip to the playoffs last season — but they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the Raiders’ home building in Oakland or on the Vegas strip. 25* AFC West Underdog of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (302) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (301). THE SITUATION: New England (6-5) had their three-game winning streak end in a 33-26 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Buffalo (8-3) has won six of their last eight games after their 28-25 victory at Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Thanksgiving.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England outgained the Vikings by +51 net yards but still lost on the road at Minnesota. The Patriots are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. New England’s defense is the real deal — they rank 2nd in the league in DVOA and first when weighting those defensive metrics to recent games. They hold their guests to just 15.2 PPG and 264.0 total YPG when playing at home. Additionally, in their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 13.0 PPG and 194.0 total YPG. The encouraging aspect of their loss last week was that Mac Jones played one of his best games of the season by completing 28 of 39 passes for 382 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Patriots gained 409 total yards in that game — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. New England returns home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC opponents. Buffalo will be without Von Miller who is dealing with a knee injury. The Bills score 28.1 Points-Per-Game and 415.9 YPG — but those numbers drop to 24.7 PPG and 393.4 YPG when playing on the road.  

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and New England is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (302) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (301) and the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-3) has won six of their last eight games after their 28-25 victory at Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Thanksgiving. New England (6-5) had their three-game winning streak end in a 33-26 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo held the Lions to just 326 yards in the victory last week. They will be without Von Miller who is dealing with a knee injury — but their defense is getting healthier with defensive ends Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa along with middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds full participants in practice this week. The Bills have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up win. And while Buffalo has seen at least 53 combined points scored in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing two or more games with 50 or more combined points scored. The Bills have averaged 414.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have played 5 straight Unders after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Buffalo scores 28.1 Points-Per-Game and 415.9 YPG — but those numbers drop to 24.7 PPG and 393.4 YPG when playing on the road. The Bills have played 6 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 6 straight Unders as a road favorite. Buffalo’s defense remains elite even without Miller — they rank 3rd in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have held their last three opponents to 310.0 YPG — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. The Patriots have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they gained 409 total yards against the Vikings, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New England only gained 45 yards on the ground in that game — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after gaining no more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots' defense is the real deal — they rank 2nd in the league in DVOA and first when weighting those defensive metrics to recent games. They hold their guests to just 15.2 PPG and 264.0 total YPG when playing at home. Additionally, in their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 13.0 PPG and 194.0 total YPG. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots rank just 25th in the NFL in DVOA on offense — ranking 24th with their running game and 22nd with their passing game. To compound matters on that side of the ball, they will be without running back Damien Harris and left tackle Isaiah Wynn. They are only generating 303.0 YPG in their last three games. New England has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots will want to slow this game down by running the football and likely playing two high safeties to dare the Bills to run the football and get out of their passing attack. New England has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and the Bills have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against rivals from the AFC. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (301) and the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) and the Indianapolis Colts (276). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-20 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (4-6-1) has lost four of their last five games after a 17-16 loss to Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 6 straight Unders after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And while they generated 408 total yards in their last game, the Under is then 45-21-2 in their last 68 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Pittsburgh has held their last three opponents to 331.7 YPG which is more than 40 YPG below their season average. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road for the next two games where they are scoring only 13.2 Points Per Game and averaging just 316.0 total Yards Per Game. The Under is 46-20-1 in their last 67 games on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Indy offense ranks 31st using the DVOA numbers including ranking 30th against the pass and 32nd in the run game despite having Jonathan Taylor at running back. The Steelers have a solid run defense that tanks 14th in the league according to DVOA. The Colts are scoring only 14.7 PPG and 273.3 YPG in their last three games. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings against each other Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) and the Indianapolis Colts (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-20 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (4-6-1) has lost four of their last five games after a 17-16 loss to Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: When observing head coaches like Sean McVay endure a terrible season, it is a remarkable achievement for Mike Tomlin that his Steelers teams have not endured a losing record during his previous 15 seasons with the franchise. That accomplishment is at risk this year — but one thing we can rely on is that his teams will always play hard. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing at least 30 points including covering the point spread in five of those last six situations. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after allowing 35 or more points. They are getting solid play from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett who completed 25 of 42 passes for 265 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He is not making many mistakes under center while demonstrating composure and a sense of control that transcends the box score. Running back Najee Harris is heating up as of late as he leads a Pittsburgh rushing attack that has averaged 154 rushing yards per game in their last three contests. Harris has run for 185 yards in the last two games. The Steelers have generated 343.3 total YPG in their last three games which is more than 30 yards above their season average. They have also held their last three opponents to 331.7 YPG which is more than 40 YPG below their season average. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road for the next two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games at home. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss at home by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread after a loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. This is a bad football team despite their on-face defensive numbers that include them ranking 5th in the NFL by allowing only 307.6 YPG. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Colts' defense as 30th in the league — those analytics measure efficiency to neutralize the slowing down of the clock by running the football which helps Indianapolis’ frontline defensive statistics. The Indy offense ranks 31st using the DVOA numbers including ranking 30th against the pass and 32nd in the run game despite having Jonathan Taylor at running back. The Steelers have a solid run defense that tanks 14th in the league according to DVOA. The Colts are scoring only 14.7 PPG and 273.3 YPG in their last three games. They have a high school head coach running the team in Jeff Saturday. While the team got an initial boost when the former center for Peyton Manning went from owner Jim Irsay’s drinking buddy to head coach in a win over Las Vegas, the honeymoon is over. Every coach in the room knows he will not be back with the team — so morale is a concern for this group moving forward. Saturday posted a 20-16 record coaching for Hebron Christian Academy in Georgia for three seasons.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (4-7) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on November 17th. Philadelphia (9-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season by beating the Colts in Indianapolis by a 17-16 score as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay will get extra time to rest, heal, and prepare for this game after getting the Thursday night game last week. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing on a Thursday in their previous game. The Packers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss. I expect this team will get back to running the football tonight. After running the ball at least 25 times in three straight games, they only ran the ball 19 times for 56 yards against the Titans. Green Bay ranks 5th in the NFL by the DVOA ratings at Football Outsiders — and they will be running the ball against an Eagles defense that ranks 26th in the league in run defense according to those DVOA analytics. The Packers go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. After winning the turnover battle in their first eight games this season, Philadelphia has seen the Regression Gods appear by losing the turnover battle in each of their last two games. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Eagles' offense has taken a step back as of late as they are scoring just 22.3 PPG and 312.7 YPG in their last three games — -4.0 PPG and -57.3 YPG below their season average. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Philadelphia returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 45 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Eagles. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (4-7) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on November 17th. Philadelphia (9-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season by beating the Colts in Indianapolis by a 17-16 score as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers managed to generate just 271 yards against the Titans last week. The struggling Green Bay offense has not scored more than 17 points in three of their last four games — and they have not scored more than 22 points in six of their last seven games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has conceded that he is playing with a broken thumb — but while that may explain how his once immaculate delivery has devolved into a wrist flick motion, his problems go way beyond this season. Even a broken thumb does not explain his bad decision-making — and he continues to struggle to develop chemistry with his wide receiving corps in the Brave New World without Davante Adams. I do not understand why this team simply does not run the ball more (although the deteriorating offensive line has not always made that easy — but they abandon the run too quickly: as Michigan demonstrated yesterday versus Ohio State, sometimes the ground game does not emerge until the second half). After running the ball at least 25 times in three straight games, they only ran the ball 19 times for 56 yards against the Titans. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed Tennessee to generate 6.69 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after giving up 6.69 YPP in their last contest. They go on the road where they are only scoring 15.0 Points-Per-Game and generating 328.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played all 3 games on the road as an underdog this season Under the Total. Philadelphia has held five of their last six opponents to under 20 points. The Colts gained only 284 total yards against them last week. The Eagles have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning a game where they did not cover the point spread. After winning the turnover battle in their first eight games this season, Philly has seen the Regression Gods appear by losing the turnover battle in each of their last two games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enduring a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. The Eagles' offense has taken a step back as of late as they are scoring just 22.3 PPG and 312.7 YPG in their last three games — -4.0 PPG and -57.3 YPG below their season average. But this Philly defense remains elite and is now bolstered on the interior of their defensive line with the acquisitions of Ndamukong Suh and Lineal Joseph. They hold their guests to 18.0 PPG and 285.6 total YPG when playing at home. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 37-20 victory at Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (7-3) has won seven of their last eight games after their 27-17 upset win at Green Bay as a 3-point underdog on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINT(S): After an 0-2 start to the season, the reigning AFC champions are clicking now even with injuries to skill players on offense. Running back Joe Mixon is not expected to play again this afternoon — but Samaje Perine stepped up with 82 rushing yards and three touchdown receptions against the Steelers. Wide receiver Ja’Mar Chase is questionable but not expected to play as well — but Joe Burrow continues to roll with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd as reliable weapons in the passing game. They have scored 30.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Burrow completed 24 of 39 passes for 355 yards with four touchdown passes last week — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point-spread victory. Additionally, while the Bengals surrendered 408 total yards against Pittsburgh, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Cincinnati’s no-name defense remains underrated under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo — they are holding their opponents to just 326.7 YPG. The Bengals also thrive in the hidden yards department — they are the least penalized team in the NFL with only 318 penalty yards assessed against them in their ten games. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in eight straight games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after an upset victory by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. Ryan Tannehill completed 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards against the Packers — but they are 23-49-2 ATS in their last 74 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Titans are eking out low-scoring games despite getting outgained by -54.7 net YPG. At home, they are getting outgained by -28.5 net YPG. Five of their seven victories have been decided by one scoring possession. And while their bend but don’t break defense is allowing only 15.7 PPG in their last three games, they are surrendering 361.0 YPG in those games. Tennessee has the top run defense in the league using the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — but they are just 13th against the pass using those metrics which is an ominous sign when facing Burrow. Tennessee is also dealing with a bevy of injuries still with defensive lineman Denico Autry out for this game and many other defensive starters listed as questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee will want to avenge their 1816 loss at home to the Bengals in the playoffs last season — but this is still not a good matchup for them. Cincinnati averages 271 passing YPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after eight games into the season against teams who are averaging 260 or more passing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (109) and the Minnesota Vikings (110). THE SITUATION: New England (6-4) has won three in a row after a 10-3 win against the New York Jets as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (8-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 40-3 loss at home to Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO UNDER THE TOTAL: Minnesota only gained 183 total yards against the Cowboys last week. The Vikings rank just 19th in the league on offense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They are scoring just 18.7 Points-Per-Game with a 321.7 total Yards-Per-Game average in their last three games. Minnesota has played 26 of their last 38 games at home Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also played 5 straight Unders when listed in the +/- 3-point range. New England seemed destined for overtime against the Jets last week before returning a punt for an 84-yard touchdown late in the game to bypass Mac Jones attempt to lead the team on a game-winning drive. In their last three games, New England is scoring only 19.3 PPG and 262.7 Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots rank 26th in offense using the DVOA analytics by the Football Outsiders — and they are subpar in both the run and the pass by ranking 24th and 26th in those metrics. New England has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 6 straight Unders when playing on the road after winning at least two games in a row. New England’s defense is keeping them in games — they have allowed 87 combined passing yards in their last two games. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing 150 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Patriots have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: New England has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (109) and the Minnesota Vikings (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (8-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 40-3 loss at home to Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won three in a row after a 10-3 win against the New York Jets as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: In the Report on Dallas last week for our NFL Game of the Month, I leaned heavily on the underwhelming analytics for Minnesota this season despite having only one loss at the time. After getting blown out by 37 points, the Vikings are now being outscored and outgained in yardage this season. But I expect a very strong effort from them tonight to get the bad taste out of their mouths from that game. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 45 of their last 66 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games after a loss by 21 or more points. And while they trailed at halftime by a 23-3 score, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games at home after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Minnesota only gained 183 total yards in the game while having their offense on the field for just 22:36 minutes of that game — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins completed only 12 of 23 passes for 105 yards before getting benched with the game out of hand. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a game where they did not gain at least 150 passing yards in their last game. Now we have a prime-time game with Cousins holding a career 10-18 record as the starter in prime-time games just like this. That said, I do note that Cousins completes 66% of his passes in prime-time with 50 touchdown passes and just 26 interceptions in those 28 prime-time games. The Vikings have a situational edge this week by getting to stay home on a short week — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New England seemed destined for overtime against the Jets last week before returning a punt for an 84-yard touchdown late in the game to bypass Mac Jones attempt to lead the team on a game-winning drive. Cousins will not have to be great tonight to outduel the Jones-led Patriots’ offense. In their last three games, New England is scoring only 19.3 PPG and 262.7 Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots rank 26th in offense using the DVOA analytics by the Football Outsiders — and they are subpar in both the run and the pass by ranking 24th and 26th in those metrics. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last contest. New England’s defense is keeping them in games — they have allowed 87 combined passing yards in their last two games. But we need to keep in mind that the last two quarterbacks that the Patriots have faced have been Sam Ehlinger and Zach Wilson — and those are two players who have since been benched. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. Even facing prime-time Cousins is a massive upgrade in talent than what Bill Belichick’s defense has faced in the last two weeks. Minnesota is completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games against teams who complete at least 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: The flip side of the middling Minnesota analytics is that their two losses this season have come against opponents who entered the week with a combined 16-4 record. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams winning at least 75% of their games. The Patriots are dealing with some injuries on this short week headlined by star left tackle Isaiah Wynn being out for this game. 25* NFL NBC-TV Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: New York (7-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-18 upset loss to Detroit as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (7-3) has won three of their last four games after their 40-3 win at Minnesota as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants are decimated with injuries — especially on the offensive line. They will be without three starters and a rotational player with Evan Neal, Shane Lemieux, Jon Feliciano, and Joshua Ezeudo all declared out today. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is questionable as well with an illness — but he did take part in limited practice yesterday. New York is also thin at wide receiver with Wan’Dale Robinson out with an injury — and Sterling Shepard already out the season, Kadarius Toney traded to Kansas City, and Kenny Golladay being in the perpetual doghouse. New York is scoring only 18.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. The Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Giants have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Under is also 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New York did generate 413 yards last week — but the Under is 20-6-1 in their last 27 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas held the Vikings to just 183 total yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They limited Minnesota to just 110 passing yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Cowboys have an elite defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in the DVOA rankings at Football Outsiders. They have held seven of their ten opponents to less than 20 points — and they lead the league with 42 sacks. Daniel Jones is going to have a very difficult time passing the ball with his banged-up offensive line — and Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn can safely stack the box to stop Saquon Barkley given the limitations the Giants will have in the passing game. The Cowboys generated 458 yards of offense last week with Dak Prescott passing for 276 yards. But Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more yards. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while Dallas has scored at least 28 points in each of their last three games, they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games. The Cowboys return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of Dallas’ 23-16 victory in New York as a 1-point underdog on September 26th. The Giants have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders when avenging a same-season loss by seven points or less. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (7-3) has won five of their last seven games after a 31-23 win against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (4-6) has won three games in a row after pulling off their third straight upset in a 31-18 victory in New York against the Giants as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo has not allowed more than 23 points in nine of their ten games this season — and they have not allowed more than 20 points in eight of their ten contests. They are allowing only 17.4 Points-Per-Game and 327.4 total Yards-Per-Game this season — and they rank 3rd in the NFL in defense according to the DVOA metrics at DVOA with both their run and pass defenses in their top-seven rankings. The Bills have played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up win. And while they held the potent Browns rushing attack to only 80 rushing yards last week, they have then played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. After six straight games where Buffalo did not see more than 44 combined points in their games, their last two contests have seen 51 or more combined points scored. But the Bills have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where 50 or more points were scored. They played in Detroit last week after the Buffalo blizzard forced them out of town — and they return to Ford Field this week having played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total away from home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Bills have not scored more than 27 points in five of their last eight games. Quarterback Josh Allen has only two touchdown passes in his last three games — and he has thrown four interceptions over that span. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. Detroit has scored 31 points in two straight games — but they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. And while they have played two straight Overs, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Lions have been playing better defense lately — particularly in stopping the run. They have held three of their last four opponents to no more than 107 rushing yards — and the lone exception was against Chicago when quarterback Justin Fields ran for 147 yards. The Bears only ran for 111 yards outside of Fields in that game. While Allen is mobile, he is not likely to run enough times to get close to Fields' number when playing the Lions since it is not worth the injury risk. Detroit returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. And in their last 7 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: One of the reasons that the Total is set in the 50s since Buffalo scores 28.1 PPG and the Lions allow 28.2 PPG — but the Bills have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who allow 27 or more PPG and Detroit has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who score 27 or more PPG. 10* NFL Buffalo-Detroit CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (475) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (476). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-4) has won two games in a row after their 22-16 win against the Los Angeles Chargers as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (4-6) had lost four of five games before their 27-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers held the Chargers to just 238 yards in the victory last week — and that came after holding the Rams to 223 total yards. San Francisco leads the NFL by allowing just 280.6 total Yards-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to just 16.6 first downs per game — also the best mark in the league. The stout San Francisco defense starts with their ability to stop the run. The Niners hold their opponents to 3.43 Yards-Per-Carry and 82.7 rushing YPG — the lowest marks in the league. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They rushed for 157 yards en route to the 387 total yards they generated against the Chargers. San Francisco has then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against NFC West opponents. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. While head coach Kliff Kingsbury was able to take care of business against the banged-up Rams, his team is absolutely riddled with injuries. Colt McCoy gets the start under center with Kyler Murray dealing with a hamstring. I think McCoy is solid — but he lacks Murray’s play-making and scrambling abilities. While he completed 26 of 37 passes last week in the win against the Rams, Arizona only gained 298 total yards in the game. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is still on Injured Reserve and tight end suffered a season-ending knee injury. The offensive line is also a mess with four protected starters from preseason camp not playing tonight. Left tackle D.J. Humphries and center Rodney Hudson have been declared out — and left guard Justin Pugh and right guard Will Hernandez have missed most of the season with injuries. The Cardinals' defense remains solid with stars line J.J. Watt and Budda Baker anchoring the unit — but they are missing some key pieces as well. Cornerback Byron Murphy is out with a hamstring and nose tackle Rashard Lawrence is on Injured Reserve with a shoulder. This is an 8-13 team since they opened 7-0 last year. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE:  The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on Monday Night Football — and San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 straight games on Monday nights. I don’t love laying more than a touchdown to a divisional underdog — but the circumstances warrant it. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the San Francisco 49ers (475) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (475) and the Arizona Cardinals (476). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-4) has won two games in a row after their 22-16 win against the Los Angeles Chargers as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (4-6) had lost four of five games before their 27-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Chargers to just 238 yards in the victory last week — and that came after holding the Rams to 223 total yards. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing 250 or more yards in two straight games. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers lead the NFL by allowing just 280.6 total Yards-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to just 16.6 first downs per game — also the best mark in the league. The stout San Francisco defense starts with their ability to stop the run. The Niners hold their opponents to 3.43 Yards-Per-Carry and 82.7 rushing YPG — the lowest marks in the league. They held the Chargers to just 51 rushing yards. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to 90 or fewer rushing yards. The 49ers did rush for 157 yards en route to the 387 total yards they generated against the Chargers. But, frankly, despite their offense loaded with weapons with skill position players getting healthy and the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, too often head coach Kyle Shanahan dials up gimmicky plays when simple plays do the trick. The Niners have not scored more than 23 points in three of their last four games. Some of that can be explained by Shanahan’s commitment to running the football — and they have held their last two opponents scoreless in the second half. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against NFC opponents. Arizona has only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Cardinals are riddled with injuries. Colt McCoy gets the start under center with Kyler Murray dealing with a hamstring. I think McCoy is solid — but he lacks Murray’s play-making and scrambling abilities. While he completed 26 of 37 passes last week in the win against the Rams, Arizona only gained 298 total yards in the game. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is still on Injured Reserve and tight end suffered a season-ending knee injury. The offensive line is also a mess with four protected starters from preseason camp not playing tonight. Left tackle D.J. Humphries and center Rodney Hudson have been declared out — and left guard Justin Pugh and right guard Will Hernandez have missed most of the season with injuries. The Cardinals' defense remains solid with stars line J.J. Watt and Budda Baker anchoring the unit. They hold their opponents to only 295.4 YPG when playing on the road. Arizona has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (475) and the Arizona Cardinals (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (469) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (470). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (7-2) has won five of their last six games after a 27-17 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 22-16 loss at San Francisco as an 8.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City generated 486 total yards last week in their double-digit win against the Jaguars. They are scoring 30.3 Points-Per-Game and generating 504.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests despite some injuries in their wide receiver corps. Patrick Mahomes will be without JuJu Smith-Shuster and Mecole Hardman due to injuries — but Marquez Valdes-Scantling returns to the field tonight and they acquired Kadarius Toney from the Giants at the trade deadline who should get plenty of reps tonight. And, of course, there is nothing wrong with Travis Kelce. Mahomes has seamlessly led the transition of this offense to one that is more balanced since they traded away Tyreek Hill in the offseason. Led by Isiah Pacheco’s 82 yards on 16 carries, the Chiefs churned out 155 rushing yards last week. The rookie from Rutgers has taken over the starting tailback job and he is poised for a big game against this Chargers defense that allows 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry and has surrendered 191 rushing YPG in their last three games. The Chiefs running the football should make their offense even more dynamic since it will open up more opportunities in the passing game. I do worry about this KC offense when they become too pass-reliant. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 36.5 PPG — and they are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games against teams with at least a 50% winning percentage at home. Los Angeles only gained 238 yards last week in their loss to the 49ers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Quarterback Justin Herbert does hope to get his top two wide receivers back tonight after Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have practiced this week after missing multiple games apiece to injury. But much of their problems on offense have been due to the defense being on the field too long given that porous run defense. Herbert and the Chargers’ offense was only on the field for 23:01 minutes against the Niners. Los Angeles does not have much of a home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium which they share with the Rams. There may be as many Chiefs fans in the crowd tonight. The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road against the Chargers. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (469) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (469) and the Los Angeles Chargers (470). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (7-2) has won five of their last six games after a 27-17 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 22-16 loss at San Francisco as an 8.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs generated 486 total yards last week in their double-digit win against the Jaguars. They are scoring 30.3 Points-Per-Game and generating 504.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests despite some injuries in their wide receiver corps. Patrick Mahomes will be without JuJu Smith-Shuster and Mecole Hardman due to injuries — but Marquez Valdes-Scantling returns to the field tonight and they acquired Kadarius Toney from the Giants at the trade deadline who should get plenty of reps tonight. And, of course, there is nothing wrong with Travis Kelce. Mahomes has seamlessly led the transition of this offense to one that is more balanced since they traded away Tyreek Hill in the offseason. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home by double-digits. Led by Isiah Pacheco’s 82 yards on 16 carries, the Chiefs churned out 155 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The rookie from Rutgers has taken over the starting tailback job and he is poised for a big game against this Chargers defense that allows 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry and has surrendered 191 rushing YPG in their last three games. Kansas City has played two straight Unders — but they have then played  5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Chiefs running the football should make their offense even more dynamic since it will open up more opportunities in the passing game. I do worry about this KC offense when they become too pass-reliant. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 36.5 PPG — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC West rivals. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Justin Herbert does hope to get his top two wide receivers back tonight after Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have practiced this week after missing multiple games apiece to injury. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City and Los Angeles are completing 65.5% and 66.4% of their passes this season. The Chiefs have played 6 straight Overs on the road against opponents that are completing 64% or more of their passes — and the Chargers have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total against opponents that are completing 66.4% or more of their passes. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (469) and the Los Angeles Chargers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 31-28 upset loss in overtime as a 4-point favorite. Minnesota (8-1) is on a seven-game winning streak after their 33-30 upset win in overtime at Buffalo as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Many observers have expressed surprise that the Vikings are home underdogs in this game. Well, the laptops don’t think their 8-1 record corresponds with their underlying numbers. The analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Minnesota as the 17th-best team in the league — ranking a middling 17th on offense and 19th on defense. This is a team that is solid but not spectacular in an area — their run offense ranks 10th in the league using the Football Outsiders DVOA metrics which is their best specific showing. They rank in the teens in Passing Offense, Run Defense, and Pass Defense. They are just 25th in Special Teams DVOA. They are getting outgained in yardage by -25.3 net Yards-Per-Game. All seven of their wins during this winning streak have been by one scoring possession. If they win four of those seven games, then no one bats an eye if a 5-4 team is a home dog to a 6-3 road team. The Vikings were very fortunate to leave Buffalo with a victory last week — it required Josh Allen red zone interceptions, Sean McDermott bypassing chip shot field goals on 4th downs, the Bills’ lacking a four-minute offense, and a miracle fumble recovery on the Buffalo goal line with less than a minute to go. Minnesota may be due for an emotional letdown after that huge comeback victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by six points or less. They did surrender 486 yards in that game with 175 of those yards coming on the ground. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards. And while Kirk Cousins completed 30 of 50 passes for 357 yards, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after passing for 250 or more yards. Cousins has a 2-8 record against Dallas in his career. The Vikings are also dealing with some injuries on defense with defensive end Dalvin Tomlinson out and linebacker Za’Darius Smith questionable with a knee. Dallas, on the other hand, ranks 4th in the NFL using the DVOA metrics with the 2nd best rushing attack and the 4th best pass defense. The Cowboys have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They did gain 421 yards against the Packers' defense — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining 350 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has averaged 431.5 Yards-Per-Game in their last two contests. And while they gave up 415 yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after giving up 350 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Cowboys lead the league with 35 sacks — and Cousins is notorious for struggling if he is under duress. Dallas is staying on the road where they are outscoring and outgaining their home hosts — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against NFC opponents — and the Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against conference rivals. The books will likely be vindicated for treating Minnesota as closer to a .500 team this afternoon. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (311) and the Green Bay Packers (312). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 17-10 win at home against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Green Bay (4-6) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 31-28 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tennessee will be without four starters tonight (one being their kicker Randy Bullock) — but I am comfortable endorsing the Under even with the Titans missing some starters on defense after getting confirmation at noon PM ET from the reports that Jeffery Simmons is expected to take the field. Simmons is their criminally-underrated defensive tackle that anchors their defense that the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank as the best against the run in the NFL. Simmons is listed as questionable with an ankle injury and only took part in limited practice on Tuesday — but he has not practiced for weeks but has still played at a high level in their last two games against Kansas City and then the Broncos. I suspected Simmons would play — but on a short week, I wanted further confirmation from the Thursday reports. The Titans have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games (with the Chiefs’ field goal in overtime being the lone exception during that span). Tennessee has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a point spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in seven straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or more games in a row. Green Bay found success by finally committing to running the ball for a full game in their upset win against the Cowboys. Rodgers only passed the ball 20 times — and they ran the ball 39 times for 207 rushing yards. For context, the previous fewest pass attempts that the Packers have had in a game was back in September when Rodgers threw the ball 25 times while handing the ball off 38 times — although many of those rushes came in the second half after they took a double-digit lead. Green Bay had success running against a Cowboys defense that got torched for 240 rushing yards by the Bears the previous week. It will be much harder to run the ball with success against this Titans defense (with Simmons in the middle) — especially if left tackle David Bakhtiari and/or right tackle Elton Jenkins are not at 100% or not able to play. Both tackles are listed as questionable for tonight after dealing with injuries all season — so playing on the short week is not a given. The Packers generated 415 total yards last week — but they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Tennessee has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (311) and the Green Bay Packers (312). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 17-10 win at home against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Green Bay (4-6) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 31-28 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee will be without four starters tonight (one being their kicker Randy Bullock) — but I am comfortable endorsing them after getting confirmation at noon PM ET from the reports that Jeffery Simmons is expected to take the field. Simmons is their criminally-underrated defensive tackle that anchors their defense that the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank as the best against the run in the NFL. Simmons is listed as questionable with an ankle injury and only took part in limited practice on Tuesday — but he has not practiced for weeks but has still played at a high level in their last two games against Kansas City and then the Broncos. I suspected Simmons would play — but on a short week, I wanted further confirmation from the Thursday reports. The Titans expect quarterback Ryan Tannehill to again play tonight after he completed 19 of 36 passes for 255 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions on Sunday. The only loss for Tennessee since September 19th was their 20-17 overtime loss at Kansas City when they had to use rookie Malik Willis under center. The Titans controlled the tempo of that game — 5th-year head coach Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the business in preparing his team to impose their will on their opponent. Tennessee knows who they are and what they want to do — and it all starts with running back Derrick Henry who is playing at a very high level right now. Henry only gained 53 rushing yards on 19 carries against Denver — but that was the first time in his last six games that he did not rush for at least 102 yards. In his last six contests, he has gained 731 yards on the ground with seven rushing touchdowns and a 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry average. With his lighter workload on Sunday, he should be ready for a big performance tonight against a Packers defense now playing with Rashan Gary who suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Green Bay has been one of the worst defensive teams against the rush all season (even with Gary in the front seven). They have the worst run defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. They rank 28th in the league by allowing their opponents to average 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. It has been even worse for the Packers when playing at home as they rank second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 5.5 YPC and a whopping 171.3 rushing YPG. The Titans’ ability to run puts their defense in a position to better succeed — they have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games (with the Chiefs’ field goal in overtime being the lone exception during that span). Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. The Titans have covered the point spread in seven straight games. While some bettors and handicappers may feel that is evidence of them being due for a letdown, that sounds like the gambler’s fallacy to me. The counter-take is that Tennessee remains undervalued by the betting market given their less-than-glamorous formula for success. When it comes to evidence, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in five straight games. This is what this team does when they get on a roll under Vrabel’s leadership. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season. Green Bay seems more likely to be vulnerable for a letdown after the highly emotional victory against the Cowboys in the Mike McCarthy versus Aaron Rodgers Bowl last week. Playing on a short week only compounds that matter. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Green Bay found success by finally committing to running the ball for a full game. Rodgers only passed the ball 20 times — and they ran the ball 39 times for 207 rushing yards. For context, the previous fewest pass attempts that the Packers have had in a game was back in September when Rodgers threw the ball 25 times while handing the ball off 38 times — although many of those rushes came in the second half after they took a double-digit lead. Green Bay had success running against a Cowboys defense that got torched for 240 rushing yards by the Bears the previous week. It will be much harder to run the ball with success against this Titans defense (with Simmons in the middle) — especially if left tackle David Bakhtiari and/or right tackle Elton Jenkins are not at 100% or not able to play. Both tackles are listed as questionable for tonight after dealing with injuries all season — so playing on the short week is not a given. The Packers surrendered 421 yards in the victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Besides Gary, Green Bay will also be without linebacker De’Vondre Campbell who is out with a knee injury. The Packers' defense has been a disappointment this season — they rank 17th in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. Green Bay has given up at least 23 or more points in six of their last seven games (and seven of their ten this season). 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (265) and the Philadelphia Eagles (266). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 20-17 loss to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog. Philadelphia (8-0) remained unbeaten after their 29-17 win at Houston as a 14-point favorite for Thursday Night Football on November 3rd.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Washington is playing great defense under head coach Ron Rivera. Even with defensive end Chase Young still out with an injury, the Commanders boast one of the best defensive lines in the league with Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne at defensive tackle and Montez Sweat at defensive end. Those are all first-round picks with both tackles products of Alabama and Sweat a former star at Mississippi State. Washington has held their last five opponents to 17.0 Points-Per-Game with no team scoring more than 21 points. They have held four of their last five opponents to no more than 324 yards — and they have held their last three opponents to 285.7 total YPG. The Commanders have played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread loss. The defensive metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Commanders as the second-best run defense in the league. They held Minnesota to just 56 rushing yards last week — and Washington has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last contest. Now they go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Commanders have also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia allowed the Texans to gain 168 yards last week — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. And while they held Houston to just 135 passing yards, the Eagles have then played 6 straight Unders after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Philly returns home where they are holding their opponents to just 14.5 PPG and 274.5 total YPG. Their defense is top pass defense in terms of DVOA — and the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings place them 2nd in overall defense. The Eagles have played 43 of their last 69 home games Under the Total after winning at least two games in a row. Additionally, they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total for Monday Night Football.  

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Eagles’ 24-8 victory at Washington on September 25th. What was most interesting in that contest was that after the Eagles scored 24 points in the second quarter, the Commanders held them scoreless in the second half. Look for an even better defensive game plan in this rematch against the heavy RPO offense that Philadelphia deploys. Defending the run-pass option requires the defensive players to embrace assignment football — and that is something that can be initially uncomfortable for players trained to attack the football. Washington did a great job in stopping the run in that game with the Eagles only gaining 72 rushing yards on 30 carries. But Hurts torched them in the passing game for 340 yards with 169 of those yards going to DeVonta Smith. Rivera and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will have an effective rebuttal tonight. The Commanders have played 4 straight Unders against fellow NFC East rivals. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (265) and the Philadelphia Eagles (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 20-17 loss to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog. Philadelphia (8-0) remained unbeaten after their 29-17 win at Houston as a 14-point favorite for Thursday Night Football on November 3rd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: If it is after Halloween, then Ron Rivera has his Washington team starting to click. The Commanders started 1-5 in 2020 before winning six of their last ten games to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. Last year, Washington started the season 2-6 before closing out the year by winning five of their last nine games. The Commanders lost four of their first five games this season — but they have won three of four and just played the one-loss Vikings well in a narrow loss last week. Washington is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record with Rivera as their head coach. It starts with the play of their defense. Even with defensive end Chase Young still out with an injury, the Commanders boast one of the best defensive lines in the league with Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne at defensive tackle and Montez Sweat at defensive end. Those are all first-round picks with both tackles products of Alabama and Sweat a former star at Mississippi State. Washington has held their last five opponents to 17.0 Points-Per-Game with no team scoring more than 21 points. They have held four of their last five opponents to no more than 324 yards — and they have held their last three opponents to 285.7 total YPG. Furthermore, the return of rookie running back Brian Robinson who missed the start of the season after being the victim of a shooting in the preseason. He ran the ball 13 times for 44 yards last week — and while those are not spectacular numbers, his presence opens up other options for the offense with Antonio Gibson who does have to then be the bell-cow running back. Additionally, Taylor Heinicke may be an upgrade at quarterback over Carson Wentz. He gives the team a spark. He is quicker to distribute the football than Wentz who takes too many sacks and melts under pressure. Heinicke is completing 63.0% of his passes for 629 passing yards in three starts with five touchdowns and three interceptions. Last year in 15 starts (16 games), he completed 65% of his passes last year while throwing for 3419 passing yards last season with 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while adding 313 rushing yards. Heinicke has a great connection with wide receiver Terry McClaurin who has been targeted at least eight times in each of his three starts for 16 receptions and 242 receiving yards. Heinicke is a solid game manager who avoids the trouble that buries Wentz — and this team has weapons with an energized McClaurin along with Robinson and Gibson out of the backfield. The defense will keep them in games. Washington has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. And while they outrushed the Vikings by 81 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after outrushing their last opponent by 75 or more yards. The defensive metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Commanders as the second-best run defense in the league. Philadelphia is averaging 391.0 total YPG — but Washington has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams generating at least 350 YPG. The Eagles are completing 68% of their passes behind quarterback Jalen Hurts — but the Commanders have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games in the second half of the season against teams completing at least 64% of their passes including eight of those last eleven circumstances. And while Philly controls the ball for 32:14 minutes per game, Washington has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who control time of possession for at least 32 minutes per game. Philadelphia gained 360 yards in their win against the Texans last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They held Houston to just 135 passing yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles are playing great — but one of their keys to success has been dominating the turnover battle which can be fickle as the season moves on. Philly has only committed three turnovers this season while enjoying a league-leading +15 net turnover margin. Now they host a Washington team that has only committed three turnovers in their last four games — and they have forced six turnovers during that stretch. The Eagles are vulnerable. They rank 27th in run defense according to the DVOA metrics. And while they are averaging 391.0 YPG, that mark has dropped by almost 50 YPG in their last three games as they have averaged only 343.0 YPG in those three contests. Philadelphia ranks only 27th in Special Teams DVOA — and the Commanders rank 7th in the league in Special Teams DVOA. Washington is allowing 5.7 Yards-Per-Play — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 5.6 or more YPP. Philly has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against NFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Eagles’ 24-8 victory at Washington on September 25th. Wentz was under center in that game — and he was awful. Robinson had yet to be medically cleared at that point of the season. But what was most interesting in that contest was that after the Eagles scored 24 points in the second quarter, the Commanders held them scoreless in the second half. Look for an even better defensive game plan in this rematch against the heavy RPO offense that Philadelphia deploys. Defending the run-pass option requires the defensive players to embrace assignment football — and that is something that can be initially uncomfortable for players trained to attack the football. Washington did a great job in stopping the run in that game with the Eagles only gaining 72 rushing yards on 30 carries. But Hurts torched them in the passing game for 340 yards with 169 of those yards going to DeVonta Smith. Rivera and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will have an effective rebuttal tonight. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (263) and the San Francisco 49ers (264). THE SITUATION: THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-3) has won four of their last five games after their 20-17 win at Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 31-14 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point underdog on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers stifled the Rams to just 223 total yards in their last game. San Francisco is allowing only 18.3 Points-Per-Game and just 285.9 total Yards-Per-Game this season. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The 49ers did generate 368 yards with their revitalized offense behind Christian McCaffrey - but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Despite the addition of McCaffrey, the Niners are scoring only 22.7 PPG in their last three games. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles held the Falcons to only 315 total yards in their victory at Atlanta last week. The Chargers have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a win on the road by three points or less. But Los Angeles only gained 336 total yards in the victory with the offense missing wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams who will be out once again tonight. The Chargers have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (263) and the San Francisco 49ers (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-3) has won four of their last five games after their 20-17 win at Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 31-14 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point underdog on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball — Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson headline the players missing on defense while the offense is without wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But the team is still winning with Justin Herbert finding a way to win games. Herbert has found a new reliable receiver in second-year pro Joshua Palmer who he has targeted 22 times in the last two weeks for 17 receptions and 163 receiving yards. Palmer was a third-round pick last year from Tennessee. Running back Austin Ekeler had an off day in the victory in Atlanta as he only had 71 total yards on 21 touches. But Ekeler had been doing everything for this team in the previous three weeks given the attrition at wide receiver — he has 240 rushing yards and another 169 receiving yards with four touchdowns from 65 touches in the previous three games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. And while they gave up 201 rushing yards to the Falcons' run-first offense, they have then covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. Despite the injuries at wide receiver, Herbert has completed at least 30 passes in three straight games. He has thrown the ball at least 40 times in each of their last three games — and the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. The defense has played better lately as they have held their last three opponents to 23.3 Points-Per-Game and 325.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Los Angeles ranks 10th in the league in defending the pass according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco is dealing with plenty of injuries of their own — especially on defense. The 49ers' secondary is without Emmanuel Moseley and Jason Verrett for the rest of the season — but the issues on their defensive line might be even worse. San Francisco will be without defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw tonight (after already being without defensive tackle Maurice Hurst for the season) along with defensive end Samson Ebukam. The Niners still have Nick Bosa — but those are three starters on the defensive line they will be without which changes the dynamic for a unit that was ranked 4th in the league in run defense using DVOA. The 49ers have allowed 28.7 PPG and 347.0 YPG in their last three games — much higher than the 18.4 PPG and 285.9 total YPG they are giving up for the season. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are allowing 25.8 PPG this season — but the 49errs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against opponents who are allowing at least 24 PPG. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (254) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (253). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (6-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 20-17 upset loss in New York against the Jets as an 11-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (7-1) has won six games in a row after their 20-17 win at Washington as a 3-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: If Case Keenum was the starting quarterback for the Bills today, then I was prepared to endorse Buffalo (especially with the line likely dropping with that confirmation). Instead, it looks like Josh Allen will play despite his UCL injury with the team indicating their doctors do not think he can make things worse for his elbow at this point. With the point spread under six points, I am still endorsing the Bills. We want to play against this Vikings team against a high-quality opponent. Minnesota has won all six of their games decided by one possession which is propping up their record. The laptops don’t love them — they rank just 18th in the overall DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They are getting outgained by -28 net Yards-Per-Game. Now they are playing outdoors in the cold Buffalo air where they have not scored more than 24 points this season. They are averaging just 17 PPG in outdoor stadiums with the Kirk Cousins passing attack averaging a mere 201 passing Yards-Per-Game. Overall on the road, the Vikings are scoring 19.8 PPG and averaging 285.8 total YPG. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games on the road after a win by three points or less. They got outrushed by 81 yards to the Commanders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after getting outrushed by 75 or more yards. Buffalo is 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. Allen has struggled with four interceptions in his last five quarters of play. Perhaps the elbow issue will compel the Bills to run the ball more. I do not think Buffalo’s problem is a lack of quality running backs — they need more conviction to lean on their ground game. They do return home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games a home — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams from the NFC. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Buffalo Bills (254) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (253). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (113). THE SITUATION: Carolina (2-7) has lost five of their last six games after a 42-21 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point on Sunday. Atlanta (4-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 20-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons only managed 315 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. They are a run-first team under second-year head coach Arthur Smith — they are running the football on 61% of their offensive plays from scrimmage. Atlanta ranks 8th in efficiency on offense according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — but this run focus has them averaging only 280.5 total YPG in their four road games which is resulting in just 21.5 Points-Per-Game. The Falcons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread loss. They are allowing 450.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 YPG over a three-game stretch. Atlanta ranks 29th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. In their four games on the road, they are giving up 27.5 PPG and 428.5 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on Thursday Night Football. Carolina will go back to Baker Mayfield under center this week after P.J. Walker only completed 3 of 10 passes last week for a mere nine yards — he had tossed two interceptions. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing 40 or more points in their last contest. And while they got outgained by -236 yards to the Bengals last week, they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 home games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest. We had Cincinnati in that game last week — frankly, Carolina caught an angry Bengals team that got embarrassed on Monday Night Football by Cleveland. And while the Panthers traded away Christian McCaffrey, they did not unload their valuable assets on defense like defensive end Brian Burns. Carolina allows only 21.2 PPG when playing at home — but they are scoring just 19.6 PPG and generating a mere 285.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers are going nowhere this season — but these bad teams playing in front of a nationally-televised audience usually play hard especially if they come off an embarrassing loss themselves. Carolina will want to avenge a 37-34 loss at Atlanta on October 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 45 of their last 66 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up at least 28 points. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Carolina Panthers (114) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (113) and the Carolina Panthers (114). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 20-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Carolina (2-7) has lost five of their last six games after a 42-21 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons only managed 315 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. They are a run-first team under second-year head coach Arthur Smith — they are running the football on 61% of their offensive plays from scrimmage. This focus on running the football burns time off the clock and helps the Atlanta defense — they only allowed 336 total yards to the Justin Herbert-led offense. The Falcons rushed for 201 yards last week. They have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. The Falcons are allowing 450.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more YPG in their last three contests. Atlanta ranks 8th in efficiency on offense according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — but they are only averaging 280.5 total YPG in their four road games which is resulting in just 21.5 Points-Per-Game. The Falcons have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 7 straight Unders in Weeks 10-13. They have also played 6 straight Unders playing on Thursday Night Football. Carolina only managed 228 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last contest. Carolina caught an angry Bengals team that got embarrassed on Monday Night Football by Cleveland. And while the Panthers traded away Christian McCaffrey, they did not unload their valuable assets on defense like defensive end Brian Burns. Carolina allows only 21.2 PPG when playing at home — but they are scoring just 19.6 PPG and generating a mere 285.0 total YPG. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog. Former Arizona Cardinals head coach Steve Wilks is the team’s interim head coach after Matt Rhule was fired on October 10th — and his teams have played 7 straight Unders when playing at home against conference rivals. The Panthers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against NFC South divisional rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings between these two teams — and the Under is 15-5-2 in the last 22 games between these teams when they are playing in Carolina. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (113) and the Carolina Panthers (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (473) and the New Orleans Saints (474). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 27-22 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2-point underdog back on October 27th. New Orleans (3-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 24-0 shutout win at home against Las Vegas as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These are two teams that want to run the football to help out their defenses. The Ravens had the ball for 38:23 minutes last week in their victory against the Buccaneers — helped by them rushing for 231 yards and earning 27 first downs. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where they had the ball for at least 34 minutes and generated at least 24 first downs. The Ravens have rushed for at least 155 yards in seven straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in three straight games. Additionally, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight Unders after winning four or five of their last six contests. Overall, the Ravens gained 453 yards against Tampa Bay. Not only have they then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The run game will take a hit with Gus Edwards doubtful to play this week with a hamstring injury — and J.K. Dobbins is already out. That leaves Kenyon Drake and Justice Hill as the primary running backs to complement Lamar Jackson’s rushing skills (BTW, Jackson does not have a rushing touchdown in five straight games). Jackson will also miss wide receiver Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews for this game. But the Ravens' defense did make a splash last week by acquiring Chicago’s outstanding inside linebacker Roquan Smith at the trade deadline. After some shaky second halves this season, the Baltimore defense has played better as of late. They have held their last three opponents to just 307.0 Yards-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 24 points in four straight contests. The Ravens stay on the road where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November. New Orleans has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by 14 or more points including eight Unders in those last nine circumstances — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a win by 21 or more points. The Saints have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points — and they have played 8 straight Unders after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. They held the Raiders to just 183 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. They have also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total in their last game. The New Orleans defense has held their last three opponents to just 285.7 total YPG, They stay at home where they have held their guests to just 20.5 PPG and 296.8 YPG. The Saints have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Baltimore has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (473) and the New Orleans Saints (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (474) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (473). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (3-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 24-0 shutout win at home against Las Vegas as a 1-point underdog. Baltimore (5-3) has won three of their last four games after their 27-22 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2-point underdog back on October 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: The laptops love this Ravens team despite them getting outgained by -4.6 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Injuries continue to hit this team hard. The run game will take a hit with Gus Edwards doubtful to play this week with a hamstring injury — and J.K. Dobbins is already out. That leaves Kenyon Drake and Justice Hill as the primary running backs to complement Lamar Jackson’s rushing skills (BTW, Jackson does not have a rushing touchdown in five straight games). Jackson will also miss wide receiver Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews for this game. Baltimore did gain 453 yards against the Buccaneers last week (with Edwards the primary ball carrier) — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point-spread win. The Ravens are scoring just 23.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. Their run defense is vulnerable against a good running back like Alvin Kamara — they rank 24th in the league in run defense according to the DVOA metrics used by Football Outsiders. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points. They held the Raiders to just 183 yards of offense — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. Derek Carr managed only 145 passing yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. The New Orleans defense has held their last three opponents to just 285.7 total YPG, They stay at home where they have held their guests to just 20.5 PPG and 296.8 YPG. They are outscoring their opponents at home by +4.3 PPG and outgaining them by a healthy +81.2 net YPG.  

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New Orleans Saints (474) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (471) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (472). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-2) has won five straight games after their 17-10 upset win at Houston as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 44-23 win at San Francisco as a 1-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: We won’t know who the starting quarterback for the Titans will be until kickoff with Ryan Tannehill a game-time decision with his high ankle injury. If Tannehill cannot go, then it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Frankly, both options are limited in the passing game, especially given the lack of reliable weapons the team has at wide receiver. It will be the Derrick Henry Show tonight for the Titans — and he is in great form after rushing for 219 yards last week on 32 carries. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Chiefs may rank 3rd in the NFL by giving up only 92 rushing Yards-Per-Game, which comes from only 22 rushing attempts per game by their opponents who typically abandon their running game because they are trailing. Kansas City allows their opponents to average 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 17th in run defense Football Outsiders’ DVOA defensive ratings. The Chiefs have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in three straight games with those opponents averaging 127 rushing YPG and 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. Tennessee beat Houston last week even with Willis under center because they controlled time of possession by being on the field for 34:48 minutes and outgaining the Texans by +193 net yards. The Titans have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point-spread victory. Tennessee can stay competitive in this game because of their defense. The Titans have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and those four opponents combined for only 54 points. Their last three opponents have been held to 12.3 PPG and just 279.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The Tennessee defense ranks 10th in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings — and they have the best run defense in the NFL according to those metrics led by the criminally underrated Jeffery Simmons. The Titans lead the league in 3rd Down defense as well. Tennessee has covered the point spread in five straight games — and some bettors who commit the Gambler’s Fallacy prescribe to the belief that this is a reason to fade a team. But Tennessee has covered the points spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in five straight games. Their run game and defense travel as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games as an underdog. If I had a nickel for every time I heard this week that Andy Reid’s teams have a 20-3 record coming off a bye. It was never mentioned that the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games coming off their bye week. Winning is one thing — covering a point spread approaching 14 points is quite another — and every square betting tonight’s game knows about Reid’s resume when he gets another week of preparation. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Chiefs’ offense has averaged 458 yards in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after averaging at least 450 yards over a two-game stretch. And while the 49ers averaged 6.63 Yards-Per-Play against them two weeks ago, they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP. They return home where they are scoring only 25.7 PPG and averaging just 358.0 YPG — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 4 straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Mike Vrabel’s philosophy is designed as the kryptonite to high-flying offenses like the Chiefs. Tennessee dominated Kansas City last year by a 27-3 score while gaining only 334 yards of offense. Reid has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of his last 7 coached games against the Titans. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against AFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the points spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against AFC rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games in Weeks 5 through 9. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Tennessee Titans (471) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (471) and the Kansas City Chiefs (472). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-2) has won five straight games after their 17-10 upset win at Houston as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 44-23 win at San Francisco as a 1-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We won’t know who the starting quarterback for the Titans will be until kickoff with Ryan Tannehill a game-time decision with his high ankle injury. If Tannehill cannot go, then it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Frankly, both options are limited in the passing game, especially given the lack of reliable weapons the team has at wide receiver. It will be the Derrick Henry Show tonight for the Titans, especially since running the football will burn the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. Tennessee has played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Led by Henry’s 219 rushing yards last week with Willis as the starting quarterback, the Titans generated 354 total yards while having their offense on the field for 34:48 minutes of that game. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Willis only passed 55 yards last week on 10 attempts — but the Titans have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total after not passing for at least 100 yards in their last game. They held the Texans to just 43 rushing yards — and they have played 4 straight Overs after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest. Tennessee has played four straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Under is 12-3-1 in Kansas City’s last 16 games after their bye week. Mahomes passed for 423 yards while leading an attack that generated 529 yards of offense. But the Chiefs have played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. And while Kansas City has passed for at least 265 yards in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in three straight games. The Chiefs return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Kansas City has played 38 of their last 58 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points — and they have played 14 of their last 18 home games Under the Total as a 10.5 to 14-point favorite. They have also played 4 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range.

FINAL TAKE: I am not going to be surprised if the Chiefs exceed their 24 rush attempts per game average tonight — one way to neutralize the Titans’ rushing attack which wants to wear down your defense is to run the ball more yourself to fight back on the time of possession game. Kansas City is only averaging 25.7 Points-Per-Game at home this year with them playing more Unders. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC foes. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (471) and the Kansas City Chiefs (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (464) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (463). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 32-13 upset loss as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Carolina (2-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 37-34 loss in overtime at Atlanta on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: The Cincinnati offense struggled to move the football on Monday with wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase out with an injury. They only gained 229 total yards in that game. But the Bengals' anemic effort probably had more to do with Myles Garrett and the inspired Browns' defense along with their shaky defensive line. Now they host a Panthers team that is allowing 26.7 Points-Per-Game. Cincinnati should get their offense going again by running the darn football — they have only gained 189 rushing yards in their last three games. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last contest. They return home where they are scoring 27.3 PPG while generating 446.7 total Yards-Per-Game. They are also holding their guests to 18.3 PPG and 286.3 YPG. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They stay on the road where they are 0-3 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cincinnati Bengals (464) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (463). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (459) and the Detroit Lions (460). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (3-5) has lost four games in a row after their 27-17 loss at Buffalo as a 10.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (1-6) has lost five games in a row after their 31-27 loss to Miami as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers may have finally embraced the approach on offense that should give them success moving forward in the second half against the Bills. Green Bay ran the ball in the second half of that game — and that helped them generate 398 yards of offense against a stout Buffalo defense. The Packers trailed at halftime by a 24-7 score — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after playing a game where they allowed at least 24 points in the first half. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread loss. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They have also played 6 straight Overs against teams with a losing record. While the sputtering Packers’ offense has received most of the attention, their defense has been a disappointment as well. Green Bay ranks 22nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. They are giving up 25.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Surprisingly, the Packers' offense ranks 8th best in the league in Offensive DVOA. Nothing beats playing the Lions to help a team’s offensive numbers. Detroit is last in Defensive DVOA — and they are 30th against the run and last in the league against the pass using those analytics. They are giving up 32.1 PPG and 421.3 total Yards-Per-Game. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 28 of their last 40 home games Over the Total after four games in a row. They did gain 393 yards against the Dolphins last week — and quarterback Jared Goff completed 27 of 37 passes for 321 yards. Goff plays much better at home — Detroit averages 281 passing YPG. The Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Detroit is scoring 35.8 PPG and generating 431.0 YPG at home at Ford Field. Detroit has been dealing with injuries — but they do get running back D’Andre Swift back for this game and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is back in the mix. But the Lions are surrendering 36.0 PPG and 470.5 YPG in their four home games. Detroit has played 20 of their last 27 games at home Over the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Lions have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played two shootouts last season where 67 and 52 combined points were scored. Green Bay and Detroit have played 9 of their last 13 meetings against each other Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing at Ford Field. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (459) and the Detroit Lions (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (310) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (309). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-5-1) has lost five of their last six games after a 17-10 loss to Tennessee on Sunday. Philadelphia (7-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-13 victory against Pittsburgh as an 11-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston may look overmatched in this game — but there are plenty of ways that a home underdog can cover a point spread in the two-touchdown range when playing on a short week. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They allowed 354 yards to the Titans last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they gained only 43 yards on 18 carries last week, they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last game. Houston can find success with their ground game tonight. While the Eagles rank 2nd in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders, Philly is only 22nd against the run according to those analytics. The Eagles have allowed 134 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three games with each of those opponents averaging at least 124 rushing YPG and 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. Second-year quarterback Davis Mills has a dismal 1-7-1 record in his nine career starts at home — but he has thrown 17 touchdown passes in those games.  On the other side of the ball, the Houston defense has been solid. They are holding their opponents to 22.0 PPG. They have held five of their seven opponents to 23 points or less — and they have played held four of those seven opponents to 20 points or less. Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while they generated 401 total yards against the Steelers last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Eagles did acquire Robert Quinn from Chicago last week — but he is replacing the injured defensive tackle Jordan Davis in their defensive line rotation since he was placed on Injured Reserve earlier this week. After playing their last two games at home, Philly goes back on the road where they are generating 342.0 total YPG which is over 50 YPG below their season average. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Four of Philadelphia’s victories this season have been by single digits. It is likely too much to ask of them to win this game by two touchdowns on the road and playing on a short week — especially when they will be satisfied with simply the victory. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Houston Texans (310) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (309) and the Houston Texans (310). THE SITUATION: The Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-13 victory against Pittsburgh as an 11-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (1-5-1) has lost five of their last six games after a 17-10 loss to Tennessee on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles held the Steelers to just 300 total yards last week -- they are tied for 3rd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 298.1 total Yards-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 21 points in six of their seven games — and they have held five of their seven opponents to 17 points or less. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Eagles have played a decisive 57 of their last 81 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last contest. Now after playing their last two games at home, Philly goes back on the road where they are generating 342.0 total YPG which is over 50 YPG below their season average. The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49-point range.  Houston only generated 71 yards before their final drive last week against Tennessee when they accumulated 90 of their 161 total yards in that game. Even at full strength, the Texans' offense is anemic as they score only 16.6 PPG and generate 288.7 YPG, ranking 29th and 31st in the league. The Offensive DVOA metrics used by Football Outsiders rank Houston as the second-worst offense in the league. Quarterback Davis Mills has not registered a Quarterback Rating of 100 or higher in any of his starts this season. He will be missing his weapons in the passing game with Nico Collins out with a groin injury and Brandin Cooks seemingly uninterested in playing after hoping he would get moved at the trade deadline. He was dealing with an injury — but he has not practiced the last two days because of an issue listed as personal. This leaves Mills to have to rely mostly on dink-and-dunk check downs in the passing game. Rex Burkhead and Dameon Pierce have combined to catch 44 balls on 55 targets for 223 yards — but they are only averaging 5.1 yards-per-catch and 4.1 yards-per-attempt. The Texans managed only 118 net yards in the passing game last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game where they did not pass for more than 150 yards. On the other side of the ball, the Houston defense has been solid. They are holding their opponents to 22.0 PPG. They have held five of their seven opponents to 23 points or less — and they have played held four of those seven opponents to 20 points or less.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (309) and the Houston Texans (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (278) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (277). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (23-20) looks to snap a four-game losing streak after their 23-20 loss at Baltimore as a 6.5-point underdog last week. Cincinnati (4-3) has won four of their last five games after their 35-17 win against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has lost five of their seven games this season — but this team can’t buy themselves a break. Four of their five losses have been by three points or less — and those four losses were by a combined nine points. The Browns are outgaining their opponents by +32.0 net Yards-Per-Game.  Turnovers are killing this team as they have lost the turnover battle in four straight games. But Cleveland has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 36 games after losing the turnover battle in at least three straight games. Now the Browns host a Bengals team that has only forced eight turnovers this season — and they have played three games where they did not have a takeaway. Injuries have played a role for the underperforming defense this season — but they will have both Myles Garrett and JaDeveon Clowney tonight. Cleveland held Baltimore to just 254 total yards last week which was very encouraging for a unit that was tied for 5th in the league last season by allowing only 311.5 total YPG. Cincinnati generated 537 yards in their victory against the Falcons last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after gaining at least 500 or more yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Bengals have played two straight Overs while generating 65 combined points in their last two games — but they will now be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase for this contest who is out with a hip injury. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing two straight Overs. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring only 22.8 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 305.8 Yards-Per-Game and getting outgained by -41.5 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be confident — they have won all four of their games against the Bengals under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Expect a close game. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Browns (278) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Cleveland Browns (278). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-3) has won four of their last five games after their 35-17 win against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (23-20) looks to snap a four-game losing streak after their 23-20 loss at Baltimore as a 6.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cincinnati defense may be the most underrated unit on both sides of the ball (and special teams) in the NFL. They held the Falcons to just 214 total yards in their victory last week. They are 5th in the league by holding their opponents to 5.92 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They are limiting their opponents to a Red Zone conversion rate of just 38.9% — and they have stopped six of the seven 4th down plays of their opponents. The Bengals are the only team in the NFL to not allow a touchdown in the second half. They have not allowed more than 19 points in four of their last five games. This may not be the best defense in the league — but they are right up there. They rank 5th in the NFL using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Bengals generated 537 total yards against the Falcons, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest (and now they will be without star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase for four to six weeks given his hip injury). Cincinnati is struggling to run the football — they have only rushed for 75 and 78 yards in their last two games. They have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 straight Unders after not rushing for more than 100 yards in two straight games. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring only 22.8 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 305.8 Yards-Per-Game. The Bengals have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games on the road against teams with a losing record at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Cleveland held the Ravens to only 254 yards in their loss last week. Turnovers are killing this team as they have lost the turnover battle in each of their games in their current four-game losing streak. The Browns have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a -1 or worse net turnover margin in three straight games. Cleveland has played 44 of their last 67 games Under the Total when they have lost four or more in a row — and they have played 4 straight Unders after losing four or five of their last six games. The Browns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 8 straight Unders against AFC opponents. The Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games between these teams — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games played in Cleveland. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Cleveland Browns (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (3-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-21 upset loss as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-20 win at Kansas City two Sundays ago as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I think I know what happens if Green Bay keeps this game competitive: they (finally) run the ball more, they play more two RB sets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, they use more two tight end sets and play heavy, etc). Frankly, it seems as if Aaron Rodgers has been resisting these moves (see his audibles on the one-yard line in the game in London against the Giants). Head coach Matt LaFleur lacks the gravitas to overrule Rodgers’ preferences when it comes to game-planning. But with the injuries to wide receivers Allan Lazard and Randall Cobb, even Rodgers will likely acquiesce to trying to win this game by slowing down the pace and keeping Josh Allen off the field. This will be a challenge against Buffalo who has the best run defense in the league according to the advanced DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The underperforming offensive line is dealing with injuries to DavidBakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins questionable and likely not near 100% effectiveness. The 4.2 air yards Rodgers is averaging per completion is the lowest in the NFL. The Packers are converting just 25% of their 3rd downs in their last three games. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in October — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Buffalo comes off a lower-scoring game than what was expected two weeks ago in their showdown with the Chiefs. The Bills' defense held the potent Kansas City offense to 387 yards. Buffalo leads the NFL in Defensive DVOA. Allen completed 27 of 40 passes for 329 yards — and Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, the Bills have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they played 4 straight Unders in October.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played their 5 meetings Under the Total. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-20 win at Kansas City two Sundays ago as a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-21 upset loss as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: I generally do not like to lay double-digits in the NFL (although sometimes it is appropriate). I know what happens if Green Bay covers: they finally run the ball more, they play more two RB sets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, they use more two tight end sets and play heavy, etc). Frankly, it seems as if Aaron Rodgers is resisting these moves (see his audibles on the one-yard line in the game in London against the Giants). Head coach Matt LaFleur lacks the gravitas to overrule Rodgers’ preferences when it comes to game-planning. Rodgers is working very hard to let everyone know how his team (and the world) continue to let him down. In the meantime, he misses open receivers, freezes out receivers, and throws too many lazy passes because the play is not developing to his delicate standards. Cue: eye roll. Even if the Packers started investing in the tactics I mentioned above, I don’t think they can successfully execute them against this Bills juggernaut. Buffalo has the best-run defense in the league according to the advanced DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The underperforming offensive line is dealing with injuries to Davi Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins questionable and likely not near 100% effectiveness. Rodgers is without his pet receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb for this game who are both out with injuries. Rodgers is dealing with a thumb injury that he will make sure to grab after he makes another bad mental decision — he did not practice on Wednesday with an inexperienced group of wide receivers that he needs every moment of preparation time with nurturing. The 4.2 air yards Rodgers is averaging per completion is the lowest in the NFL. The Packers are converting just 25% of their 3rd downs in their last three games. If there was a switch that Rodgers could simply flip with this challenge, why did he not do it after the upset loss against the Giants? Or the next week in the upset loss against the Jets (when I still thought they could Get Smart)? The loss to the Commanders last week just seemed like the evidence of what this team now is. I still thought the Packers would win the NFC North even after the loss of Davante Adams — but besides the decline of the offensive line and the lack of creativity using their two excellent running backs, the defense has regressed significantly. The Packers rank 25th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. Maybe — even after all this — Green Bay steps up if they were playing at home at Lambeau. But they are on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. They gave up 364 total yards to the Taylor Heinicke-led Commanders last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after alloying 350 total yards in their last game. Furthermore, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. To make matters worse: they are catching Buffalo almost completely healthy, rested, and off a bye. The Bills may have the best roster depth in the league — and only defensive tackle Spencer Brown is injured so David Quessenberry, a starter for Tennessee last season, seamlessly steps in. Buffalo is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye week. After their statement win against Kansas City, they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home — and they are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. And guess what? This is just their third game at home this season after beating their previous two opponents at home by an average score of 39.5-5.0 with the Bills generating 483.0 Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: I can live with myself losing a 25* play on Buffalo tonight; however, I would be apoplectic if I followed the "sharp" play and took Green Bay, and then they got buried. That litmus test is usually effective for me. Rodgers has never been a bigger underdog in his career before tonight. He might relish in a blowout loss to let his coach and management know: “I told ya so!” (I have no idea what the “told ya” means …). 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the New York Giants (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-3) has won three of their last four games after their 37-23 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (6-1) is on a four-game winning streak with their 23-17 upset win at Jacksonville last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: These are two similar teams overachieving preseason expectations. Both teams coming off multiple upset victories and now have resumes that include them getting outgained in yardage on the season. I suspect it is the Giants’ bubble that gets burst with the challenging trip out west to play in Lumen Field and their “12th man” with the fans. All six of the Giants’ victories have been by one scoring possession including near-miracle finishes against Tennessee, Green Bay, and Baltimore. Rookie head coach Brian Daboll is doing a fantastic job in game managing — and he has Daniel Jones operating as a junior Josh Allen. But the offense lacks a vertical passing threat. After the season-ending injury to Sterling Shepard, the trade to Kadarius Toney earlier this week, and Kenny Golladay in the dog house, the Giants starting wide receivers are Darius Slayton and rookie slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. Rookie tight end Daniel Bollinger is out with an injury for this game. The Giants' offensive line will also be missing rookie right tackle, Evan Neal, along with Ben Bredesen. New York is last in the NFL with only seven pass plays of more than 20 yards — the second-lowest mark in the league is then 14 pass plays of 20 or more yards. But the biggest difference between these two teams is on defense. Despite defensive coordinator Don Martindale’s blitz-heavy clever schemes, the Giants rank 29th in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA metrics. They rank 30th in Run Defense using those metrics — and they are last in the league by allowing 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Pass Defense ranks 26th in DVOA — and they have registered only one interception this season. The defensive woes start on first down where they are allowing 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. New York has registered three straight upsets with their last two wins against the Ravens and Jaguars finishing Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing two straight Unders. Seattle has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Seahawks may have the Offensive Rookie of the Year in Kenneth Walker who offers the team an explosive weapon in the backfield since he took over as the bell-cow back after the injury to Rashaad Penny. Walker helped Seattle run for 214 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Geno Smith is poised to win the Comeback Player of the Year award as now a season-veteran who has learned his craft after playing behind Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson for years. Talent was never the issue for this former first-round draft pick. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has done a great job with him. On first downs, Smith is completing 81.5% of his passes while averaging 8.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. On third downs needing at least seven yards, he has completed 17 of 22 passes (77.3%). After both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were on the injured list this week, it appears both will take the field today. The Seahawks rank 3rd in the NFL in Offensive DVOA. On defense, they are middle of the road — ranking 19th in Defensive DVOA and 17th against the run (both marks higher than the Giants). Overall, Seattle ranks 7th in overall DVOA versus New York ranking 14th (for what that is worth).    

FINAL TAKE: Home field should make the difference in this game where the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. 25* NFC Favorite of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the New York Giants (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.     

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (101) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-20 win against Cleveland as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Tampa Bay (3-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 21-3 upset loss at Carolina as a 13-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens outlasted the Browns despite only gaining 254 total yards against them. Baltimore has played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Ravens generated 160 rushing yards in that contest, they have then played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Ravens have not scored more than 23 points in four straight games — and they are averaging only 328.3 total YPG in their last three contests. The passing game has not been as effective with the team failing to gain more than 195 yards in the air in four straight games. Statistically, there was a correlation between Lamar Jackson putting up bigger numbers with Rashod Bateman being healthy and on the field. Bateman was considered the key piece for the offense to move on from Marquise Brown who they traded to Arizona. But Bateman has struggled with drops before missing two games with an injury. He returned in the Browns game and caught four balls for 40 yards — but Jackson only had 120 passing yards in the game. Head coach John Harbaugh's team is playing solid defense — they rank 12th in Defensive DVOA while allowing only 19.77 PPG on the road. The Ravens have played three of their last four games at home — and now they go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total. Additionally, they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in October — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record. Tampa Bay only gained 322 yards against the Panthers in that upset loss. The Buccaneers are struggling on offense behind a depleted offensive line that was already challenged in with the offseason retirement of left guard Ali Marpet. The Bucs have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. And while they allowed 176 rushing yards to Carolina, they have then played 12 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They return to home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bucs' defense remains stout — ranking 5th in Defensive DVOA with top-11 marks in run defense and pass defense. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to 18.7 PPG and 293.3 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total for Thursday Night Football — and they have played 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Ravens Under the Total. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (101) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) minus (or plus) the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 21-3 upset loss at Carolina as a 13-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (4-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-20 win against Cleveland as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: What is going on with Tampa Bay — and can they pick themselves off the mat at this point? They have been ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line remains a mess and the defensive backfield is banged up — but quarterback Tom Brady at least has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back. The team misses left guard Ali Marpet who retired in the offseason and linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul who signed with the Ravens as a free agent. The quality of the roster has declined since their Super Bowl victory in 2020. Brady seems distracted with his divorce and desire to attend Robert Kraft weddings. Despite their losing record, the analytics at Football Outsiders still rank Tampa Bay as the 8th-best team in their overall DVOA ratings. They are outgaining their opponents by +22.5 net Yards-Per-Game. I think much of what is going on is simply malaise. The team started strong — despite the injuries — with victories at Dallas and New Orleans. They lost a low-scoring game at home to Green Bay. They lost at home to Kansas City after falling behind the eight-ball early by fumbling the opening kickoff. They rebounded by beating a feisty Atlanta team at home, raising their record to 3-2. They then traveled to Pittsburgh with their rookie quarterback as a 9.5-point favorite — two days after Brady attends the Kraft wedding — and they play flat in a 16-10 upset loss. They stay on the road to play at Carolina as a nearly two-touchdown favorite against a tanking Panthers team who just traded Christian McCaffrey and who were using P.J. Walker at quarterback — and they lacked energy in that embarrassing loss. Evans dropped an early touchdown pass that might have changed the tone of that game. Now after two bad upset losses, I suspect the Buccaneers rally around each other on the short week with the challenge of hosting a good Ravens team. I like how Brady is responding to the adversity by showing positive leadership toward his teammates. He does not show dramatic signs of decline like some of the other older guard of quarterbacks. He is completing 66.9% of his passes while averaging 277.4 passing YPG. His eight touchdown passes are low — but he has only thrown one interception this season. The Tampa Bay passing attack ranks 10th in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. So, I think the Buccaneers can continue their team trend of covering the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after getting upset on the road as a favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss as a road favorite. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Bucs have lost two of their three games at home — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The defense remains stout — ranking 5th in Defensive DVOA with top-11 marks in run defense and pass defense. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to 18.7 PPG and 293.3 total YPG. Baltimore is dealing with attrition as well with defensive end Calais Campbell out with an illness and several other starters questionable going into tonight. Perhaps left tackle Ronnie Stanley along with both starting cornerbacks Marlon Humphries and Marcus Peters all play tonight — but how effective will they be with their injuries and can they play the entire game? The Ravens outlasted the Browns despite getting outgained by a 336 to 254 yardage margin. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win at home. Baltimore is only one of two teams to hold double-digit leads in all their games — but why have they blown those big leads in three of their games? They are getting outgained by -20.1 net YPG. The Ravens rank 23rd in run defense by DVOA — so perhaps this is the opponent that Tampa Bay can get Leonard Fournette going with their ground game. Baltimore has allowed four of their last five opponents to rush for at least 101 yards. The Ravens have not scored more than 23 points in four straight games — and they are averaging only 328.3 total YPG in their last three contests. The passing game has not been as effective with the team failing to gain more than 195 yards in the air in four straight games. Statistically, there was a correlation between Lamar Jackson putting up bigger numbers with Rashod Bateman being healthy and on the field. Bateman was considered the key piece for the offense to move on from Marquise Brown who they traded to Arizona. But Bateman has struggled with drops before missing two games with an injury. He returned in the Browns game and caught four balls for 40 yards — but Jackson only had 120 passing yards in the game. The Ravens have played three of their last four games at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. Look for Brady and company to find a way to win this critical game for them. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) minus (or plus) the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). THE SITUATION: New England (3-3) is on a two-game winning streak after their 38-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (2-4) has lost three in a row after their 12-7 loss to Washington as a 1-point underdog two Thursdays ago on October 13th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: While many observers pre-judged Bill Belichick’s decision to have Matt Patricia, those of us who were willing to just wait and evaluate the evidence as it develops (and Week One does not offer enough “evidence”) are now not handcuffed by the need to confirm prior assumptions. And guess what? The Patriots’ offense is starting to purr under Patricia’s guidance — even with rookie Bailey Zappe at quarterback. After only scoring 24 combined points in their first two games, New England has scored at least 24 points in four straight games while averaging 28.8 Points-Per-Game during that stretch. They are getting it done by running the football behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL — they are generating 146.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four games. In their two home games, they are averaging 160 rushing YPG on 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. That level of productivity affords the Patriots the luxury of not having either of their young quarterbacks have to do too much in the passing game — but the team has passed for over 300 yards in two of their last four games. Belichick has yet to name a starter for tonight — but it was Mac Jones working with the first team on Saturday, so that is who I expect gets the nod. Frankly, it does not matter as both are capable in this offense. Zappe completed 24 of 34 passes for 309 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. While Buffalo and Kansas City get most of the attention with their dynamic passing attacks, it is teams like Philadelphia, Dallas, Seattle, and the New York Giants who rank in the Football Outsiders' top ten in offensive DVOA with run-first philosophies on offense. Now they host a Bears’ team that ranks 26th in Run Defense DVOA according to the Football Outsiders metrics. New England are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. Additionally, they are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. And while they generated 399 yards of offense against the Browns, they are then 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Patriots are 48-20-2 ATS in their last 70 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games against teams with a losing record under Belichick’s leadership. In regards to the Bears, it is too easy to criticize the Bears management for not getting Fields more weapons — these observers fail to appreciate that first-year general manager Ryan Poles inherited a salary-cap disaster courtesy of previous general manager Ryan Pace which will take two years to address. Fields is getting better after not being coached well last season under “offensive” head coach Matt Nagy. But this team lacks weapons in the passing game while Fields works behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game. And the Bears' defense has regressed — they rank 21st in the league using the Defensive DVOA metrics. In their three games on the road, the Bears are allowing 25.3 PPG and 392.0 YPG. Chicago is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a loss. They did gain 392 yards last week - but they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They held Washington to just 204 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t love laying more than a touchdown in the NFL — but there are times when it is appropriate. The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the New England Patriots (476) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the New England Patriots (476). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-4) has lost three in a row after their 12-7 loss to Washington as a 1-point underdog two Thursdays ago on October 13th. New England (3-3) is on a two-game winning streak after their 38-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: While many observers pre-judged Bill Belichick’s decision to have Matt Patricia, those of us who were willing to just wait and evaluate the evidence as it develops (and Week One does not offer enough “evidence”) are now not handcuffed by the need to confirm prior assumptions. And guess what? The Patriots’ offense is starting to purr under Patricia’s guidance — even with rookie Bailey Zappe at quarterback. After only scoring 24 combined points in their first two games, New England has scored at least 24 points in four straight games while averaging 28.8 Points-Per-Game during that stretch. They are getting it done by running the football behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL — they are generating 146.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four games. In their two home games, they are averaging 160 rushing YPG on 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. That level of productivity affords the Patriots the luxury of not having either of their young quarterbacks have to do too much in the passing game — but the team has passed for over 300 yards in two of their last four games. Belichick has yet to name a starter for tonight — but it was Mac Jones working with the first team on Saturday, so that is who I expect gets the nod. Frankly, it does not matter as both are capable in this offense. Zappe completed 24 of 34 passes for 309 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. While Buffalo and Kansas City get most of the attention with their dynamic passing attacks, it is teams like Philadelphia, Dallas, Seattle, and the New York Giants who rank in the Football Outsiders' top ten in offensive DVOA with run-first philosophies on offense. New England generated 6.3 Yards-Per-Carry against the Browns after averaging 6.5 YPP the previous week against Detroit. The Patriots have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Over the Total at home after a double-digit win. Additionally, they have played 4 straight Overs after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest. The Patriots return home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in October. Chicago generated 392 yards in offense but were 0-for-3 in the Red Zone in their 5-point loss to the Commanders last week. But I am seeing improvement in second-year quarterback Justin Fields who is getting more aggressive with his legs to compensate for the lack of play-makers at wide receiver. Fields ran the ball 12 times for 88 yards against Washington while passing for 190 yards. It is too easy to criticize the Bears management for not getting Fields more weapons — these observers fail to appreciate that first-year general manager Ryan Poles inherited a salary-cap disaster courtesy of previous general manager Ryan Pace which will take two years to address. Fields is getting better after not being coached well last season under “offensive” head coach Matt Nagy. The Bears do have a solid running game with David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. They ran for 238 yards against a very good Washington defensive line last week. In fact, Chicago has rushed for 149 or more yards in four of their last five games — and that level of productivity will help put Fields in a better position to succeed in the passing game. Teams can run on the Patriots' defense —  they rank 27th in the league in Rushing DVOA Defense according to the Football Outsiders analytics (for what that is worth). New England is allowing their opponents to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have given up at least 100 rushing yards in three of their last four games. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing four of their last five games. Chicago will likely find themselves trailing in this game — so they will probably pass the ball more in the second half against this Patriots team that gave up 258 passing yards last week. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. Chicago held Washington to only 86 passing yards last week — but they have played 4 straight Overs after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. On the road, the Bears are allowing 25.3 PPG and 392.0 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings against each other Over the Total. While regulars know that I am quite willing to play Unders even when the number is at 40 or less, I find the number too low for this game given the Patriots’ offense and the likely game script that will follow. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the New England Patriots (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (473). THE SITUATION: Miami (3-3) has lost three in a row after their 24-16 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (2-4) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 20-18 upset victory against Tampa Bay as a 10-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: The Steelers had not scored more than 20 points in any of their games during their four-game losing streak — they were scoring just 13.5 Points-Per-Game during that losing streak. And they only gained 270 yards against the Buccaneers last week — so it is not as if they discovered the keys to the offensive engine with rookie Kenny Pickett under center. But after an embarrassing 38-3 loss to Buffalo the previous week, head coach Mike Tomlin demanded a better effort from his team against Tom Brady and company. But the Steelers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point-spread win. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games. Pittsburgh is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against fellow AFC rivals. They rank only 24th in Offensive DVOA according to the analytics at Football Outsiders — and they cannot get their ground game going to help out Kenny Pickett or Mitchell Trubisky as they rank second-to-last in Rushing DVOA. In their three games on the road, they are scoring 14.3 Points-Per-Game. Miami gets Tua Tagovailoa back from concussion protocol for this game which should help get their offense clicking in the Red Zone. The Dolphins to did generate 458 yards of offense last week against the Vikings — and they held Minnesota to just 234 total yards. They have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last contest. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Dolphins. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted Deal with Miami Dolphins (474) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (473) and the Miami Dolphins (474). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-4) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 20-18 upset victory against Tampa Bay as a 10-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (3-3) has lost three in a row after their 24-16 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers had not scored more than 20 points in any of their games during their four-game losing streak — they were scoring just 13.5 Points-Per-Game during that losing streak. And they only gained 270 yards against the Buccaneers last week — so it is not as if they discovered the keys to the offensive engine with rookie Kenny Pickett under center. But after an embarrassing 38-3 loss to Buffalo the previous week, head coach Mike Tomlin demanded a better effort from his defense — and they responded by holding Tom Brady and company to just 304 total yards. Despite being without T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh ranks a solid 15th in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders. But the offense remains a work in progress behind a          subpar offensive line. They rank 24th in Offensive DVOA — and they cannot get their ground game going to help out Kenny Pickett or Mitchell Trubisky as they rank second-to-last in Rushing DVOA. In their three games on the road, they are scoring 14.3 Points-Per-Game. The Under is 14-5-1 in their last 20 games after a straight-up win. And while they had not covered the point spread in three straight games before their upset win last week, they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Additionally, the Under is 45-19-1 in their last 65 games on the road — and the Under is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games in October. Miami gets Tua Tagovailoa back from concussion protocol for this game — but every Dolphins game now holds the risk that if he takes one big shot from a defender, then he will be removed from the game given the scrutiny the league is under regarding the implementation of their player safety policies. He is playing behind a shaky offensive line. Dynamic wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both playing through injuries — and neither has scored a touchdown in four straight games. The Dolphins' defense did step up lack week by holding the Vikings to just 234 total yards. They gained 458 yards in the game but were held back by a -3 net turnover margin. Miami has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, Miami has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against AFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: Steelers’ senior assistant coach and linebackers coach Brian Flores may be Tomlin’s secret weapon in this game since he was Tagovailoa’s head coach in Miami in his first two seasons. The inside reports suggest Flores was not a fan of Tua. The Pittsburgh defensive approach will be interesting to watch. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (473) and the Miami Dolphins (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (455) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (456). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-2-1) has won three of their last four games after their 34-27 win against Jacksonville as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (3-2) returns from their bye week on a three-game winning streak after their 21-17 victory at Washington two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis gets back running back Jonathan Taylor for this game to offer some balance for this Colts offense — and that should put quarterback Matt Ryan in an even better position to succeed. After a slow start to the season behind a struggling offensive line, head coach Frank Reich and the veteran Super Bowl quarterback have put things together in the passing game. Ryan completed 42 of 58 passes for 389 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win against the Jaguars. The emergence of rookie wide receiver Alec Pierce has provided Ryan with a viable receiving option to complement Michael Pittman. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win against a divisional rival. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after winning two of their last three games. And while they ran the ball only 16 times for 45 yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards — and getting Taylor back will be a boon for this offense. The Colts' defense did hold the Jags to just 136 passing yards last week — and they are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Indy ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing only 323.7 Yards-Per-Game — and they are third in the league in 3rd Down defense. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October. The Colts are dealing with some injuries with Shaq Leonard not ready to return to linebacker this afternoon and defensive end Kwity Paye injured — but the Titans have their share of missing starters as well. Left tackle Taylor Lewan and top linebacker Harold Landry III are out the year with injuries. Linebacker Zach Cunningham and right guard Nate Davis are also out for today’s game. The Titans gained only 241 yards in their win against the Commanders — and they got outgained by -144 net yards after surrendering 385 total yards to Washington two weeks ago. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The draft day trade of wide receiver A.J. Brown has left the offense too one-dimensional. The team signed Robert Woods as a free agent and drafted rookie Treylon Burks from Arkansas — but he is injured and out for today’s game. Ryan Tannehill completed 15 of 25 passes against the Commanders for only 181 yards. Their 136 net passing yards (after sacks) was their third-lowest passing yardage effort this season. They are an unreliable favorite who have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games laying up to three points. Despite their winning record, they are getting outscored by -4.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -112.6 YPG  due to an anemic offense gaining only 278.2 YPG. They only generate 25.4 yards per drive on offense while surrendering 37.4 yards per drive — and that -11.75 net yardage difference per drive is last in the league. Indianapolis, on the other hand, has outgained their opponents by +26 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have won their last four games against the Colts after their 24-17 win at Lucas Oil Stadium as a 4-point underdog on October 2nd. But Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against Tennessee at their Nissan Stadium. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (455) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (303) and the Arizona Cardinals (304). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 30-26 loss to Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (2-4) has lost two in a row after their 19-9 upset loss at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while New Orleans gained 399 yards against the Bengals' defense last week, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Saints are ravaged with injuries — especially on offense. Wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are out along with tight end Andrew Trainman. Starting left guard Andrus Peat is also out. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Under is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 games on Thursday Night Football. Arizona managed only 315 yards in their loss to the Seahawks. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Cardinals have also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 30 of their last 42 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The injury list for the Cardinals’ offense is also significant. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is out for at least a month with a foot injury. Quarterback Kyler Murray does get DeAndre Hopkins back from his six-game suspension — but that is probably not a net-plus switch. Arizona is tied for last in the league by averaging only 4.1 air yards per completion — and Brown is more of a deep threat than Hopkins is at this point in his career. Running back James Conner is questionable with a rib injury. Additionally, the offensive line is hit hard with two starters out: left guard Justin Pugh is out the season with a knee, and center Rodney Hudson is out tonight. These issues on the offensive line are one of the reasons why Murray is struggling — but he does seem to be too often bailout out of the pocket and relying on his physical talent which can generate amazing highlight reels while not being the optimal route for efficiency on offense. The Cardinals are generating 19.0 PPG along with 346.0 YPG — and they rank 26th in Offensive DVOA and 26th in the passing game specifically which is an indictment of both Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. But Arizona’s defense did hold the Seahawks to only 299 total yards last week. They rank 11th in the NFL in Run Defense DVOA — and the Saints’ will likely be very dependent on their rushing attack tonight.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC opponents — and they have played 5 straight Unders in October. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (303) and the Arizona Cardinals (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (303) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (304). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 30-26 loss to Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (2-4) has lost two in a row after their 19-9 upset loss at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans has lost four of their six games despite outgaining their opponents by +39.5 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Three of their four losses were decided by one-scoring possession. They outgained the Bengals last week by a 399 to 348 yardage margin in the loss. Turnovers have been a problem — with many of them coming from interceptions from Jameis Winston. The Saints’ special teams are a mess as well with them ranking 31st in the DVOA rankings of special teams units at Football Outsiders. But they play a Cardinals team that ranks just 29th in special teams. And while head coach Dennis Allen has not named a starting quarterback, reports indicate that he will likely tap Andy Dalton as his starter once again this week with Winston not 100% with a back and ankle injury that kept him limited in practice on this short week. Dalton has thrown only one interception in three games this season with a 1.2% interception rate for his 82 passes. That is what this Saints team needs right now — play smart, lean on their defense, and avoid mistakes. They are ravaged with injuries (but so are the Cardinals). Wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are out along with tight end Andrew Trainman. Starting left guard Andrus Peat is also out. Winston would not have the skill players he would need to take advantage of his arm strength while perhaps needing to be savvier given the offensive line issues. Dalton is the better option on a short week — and he did work with the starting offense on Tuesday. Furthermore, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael is going a nice job incorporating Taysom Hill as a weapon at quarterback or running back to throw off opposing defenses — something this Cardinals team will be susceptible to on a short week. The Saints are also without cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The good news is that rookie wide receiver Chris Olave is expected to play. Even better news: running back Alvin Kamara is heating up with 52 touches in the last two games. New Orleans ranks second in the league in Rushing DVOA according to Football Outsiders. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games on the road after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They are outgaining their opponents by +32.0 net YPG in their three road games — and they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 54 games on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss as a road favorite. The injury list for the Cardinals is even worse than the Saints for this game on a short week. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is out for at least a month with a foot injury. Quarterback Kyler Murray does get DeAndre Hopkins back from his six-game suspension — but that is probably not a net-plus switch. Arizona is tied for last in the league by averaging only 4.1 air yards per completion — and Brown is more of a deep threat than Hopkins is at this point in his career. Running back James Conner is questionable with a rib injury. Additionally, the offensive line is hit hard with two starters out: left guard Justin Pugh is out the season with a knee, and center Rodney Hudson is out tonight. These issues on the offensive line are one of the reasons why Murray is struggling — but he does seem to be too often bailout out of the pocket and relying on his physical talent which can generate amazing highlight reels while not being the optimal route for efficiency on offense. The Cardinals are generating 19.0 PPG along with 346.0 YPG — and they rank 26th in Offensive DVOA and 26th in the passing game specifically which is an indictment of both Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. If Kingsbury follows through with his consideration of giving up play-calling duties, then I am not sure what is left for the guy who had a losing record at Texas Tech before falling forward with this gig after getting sacked by his alma mater. The injuries on defense are also significant with linebacker Dennis Gardeck out and cornerback Trayvon Muller and safety Jalen Thompson questionable. The Cardinals rank 20th in Defensive DVOA — and they are allowing 28.0 PPG and 394.7 YPG in their three home games where they are getting outscored by -11.3 PPG. Arizona is winless in their three home games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against Arizona. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. After a 7-0 start last season, Arizona has lost 11 of their last 17 games with everything seeming to be moving in the wrong direction. In an expected close game, I find Dalton, Kamara, and the Saints' defense along with Dennis Allen as more reliable. 25* NFC Game of the Month with New Orleans Saints (303) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (275) and the Los Angeles Chargers (276). THE SITUATION: Denver (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 12-9 loss in overtime as a 3-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 6th. Los Angeles (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 30-28 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 19-7-1 in their last 27 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Denver is playing better on defense than I expected. They were third in the league last year by allowing 18.9 Points-Per-Game — but I thought that number was misleading by the ball-control offense under head coach Vic Fangio. But the Broncos are allowing just 16.0 PPG this year while limiting their opponents to 289.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Furthermore, while ranking just 20th in the defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders last season, they currently sit second in the league in those analytics this year. Now Denver goes back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Los Angeles allowed 213 rushing yards in their last game — but they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last contest. They return home where they have played 18 of their last 26 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Quarterback Justin Herbert is missing some of his key pieces on offense due to injuries. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is out the year with a biceps injury. Wide receiver Keenan Allen was declared out for tonight as he recovers from a hamstring injury that has kept him out so far this season. Russell Wilson is without his left tackle Garrett Bowles who suffered a season-ending leg injury — and running back Javonte Williams is also out the year with an injury.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 5 straight Unders on Monday Night Football — and the Chargers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total playing on Monday night. These two teams have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on the Chargers’ home field. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (275) and the Los Angeles Chargers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (275) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (276). THE SITUATION: Denver (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 12-9 loss in overtime as a 3-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 6th. Los Angeles (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 30-28 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: I will be holding my nose taking this Denver team — but I suspect we will see an inspired effort from a desperate team who comes off the longest possible break in-between games save for the bye weeks. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing on Thursday in their last game. Denver did outgain the Colts by a 375 to 306 margin. Russell Wilson has been a big disappointment this season which was a surprise to me — but while I am skeptical of his long-term potential, he is still a savvy veteran who knows he needs to step it up. He claims some of his struggles are due to an arm injury — and he did get a shot in his right lat last week so perhaps he will have more zip again on his long ball. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss by three points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Denver is playing better on defense than I expected. They were third in the league last year by allowing 18.9 Points-Per-Game — but I thought that number was misleading by the ball-control offense under head coach Vic Fangio. But the Broncos are allowing just 16.0 PPG this year while limiting their opponents to 289.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Furthermore, while ranking just 20th in the defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders last season, they currently sit second in the league in those analytics this year. Denver has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Chargers gained 465 total yards against the Browns with 238 of those yards on the ground. But this team has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has scored at least 30 points in their last two games while playing three straight Overs. But they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing three straight Overs. This team is dealing with several crushing injuries. Joey Bosa is on injured reserve hurting the defense that is allowing 28.5 PPG at home. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is out the year with a biceps injury. Wide receiver Keenan Allen was declared out for tonight as he recovers from a hamstring injury that has kept him out so far this season.

FINAL TAKE: Home teams at SoFi Stadium do not enjoy much of a home-field advantage — the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles is an unreliable favorite — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Look for this divisional rivalry to be a close game. 25* AFC West Game of the Month is with the Denver Broncos (275) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Dallas (4-1) has won four in a row after their 22-10 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5.5-point underdog last week. Philadelphia (5-0) remained the lone unbeaten team this week with their 20-17 victory at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas only gained 239 total yards against the Rams on Sunday — but they held Matthew Stafford and company to just 323 total yards. The Under is 10-1-1 in the Cowboys’ last 12 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is also 10-1-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Cooper Rush completed 10 of 16 passes in the win for 102 yards — and Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not passing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and the Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia controlled the time of possession for 34:49 minutes against the Cardinals while generating 24 first downs. In their 29-21 win against Jacksonville the previous week, the Eagles held the ball for 39:41 minutes while gaining 25 first downs. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where they have gained at least 24 first downs and controlled time of possession for 34 or more minutes. The Eagles did not cover the 5.5-point spread last week — but they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning their last game despite not covering the point spread. They return home where they have played 40 of their last 58 home games Under the Total in October.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia surrendered 92 points to Dallas in their two games against them last year. Addressing that problem was certainly a priority in the offseason — and the Cowboys had Dak Prescott at quarterback in that one. Expect a lower-scoring game between two division rivals very familiar with each other. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (274) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (273). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (5-0) remained the lone unbeaten team this week with their 20-17 victory at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (4-1) has won four in a row after their 22-10 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The laptops love this Philadelphia team. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank them as the second-best team in the league behind Buffalo. They rank 5th in both offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA according to their metrics. They enjoy the best turnover ratio in the NFL by a mile — their 11 takeaways are the most in the league and their two giveaways are the fewest in the league. Their RPO-heavy offense catches most teams off-guard while exposing defensive rosters designed to stop pass-heavy offenses using three or more wide receivers. They lead the NFL by controlling the time of possession for 33:53 minutes per game. But they combine a ball-control offense with explosiveness — they lead the league with 44 “Big Plays” (a rushing gain of 12 or more yards or a passing gain of 16 or more yards). They are outscoring their opponents by +9.4 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +125.4 net Yards-Per-Game. I am anxious to see the Eagles play against teams that made deep playoff runs last year — but they host a division rival with a backup quarterback tonight. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow win by three points or less. They return home where they have outgained their opponents by +202.0 net YPG this year. Philadelphia is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Dallas only gained 239 total yards last week against the Rams — and they were outgained by -84 net yards in pulling off that upset victory. A +3 net turnover margin including a defensive touchdown played a big role in that win against the defending Super Bowl champions who are facing an existential crisis with the injuries on their offensive line. Dallas has been very fortunate with their schedule after looking hapless in their opening game at Tampa Bay where they only scored a field goal. They got Cincinnati the next week who was dealing with offensive line cohesion issues along with Joe Burrow still rusty after his appendectomy limited his preseason work — and the Bengals almost rallied to win in the second half. They then got the New York Giants, with all due respect to the job Brian Daboll is doing in his first year with that dysfunctional organization. That win was followed up with a game against Washington and Carson Wentz who melts under defensive pressure (and Dallas’ pass rush is elite). This will be the Cowboys’ third game on the road in the last four weeks — a stiff challenge particularly for backup quarterback Cooper Rush. While the faux quarterback controversy provides national headlines for owner Jerry Jones, remember that general manager Jones cut Rush in late August before reclaiming him a day later when the entire league passed on him. Rush has benefited from playing with a lead for almost his entire stint since Dak Prescott got injured. He will likely have to play from behind tonight. The Cowboys rank 29th in the league in third-down offense with Rush under center. To compound the matter, he split time this week in practice with Prescott who flirted with playing in this game. The Dallas defense has helped them play two straight Unders — but the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 road games after playing two straight Unders.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia will have revenge on their mind against this Dallas team that toasted them 41-21 and then 51-26 in their two meetings last season. Admittedly, that 51-26 loss in Week 17 was against an Eagles team resting key starters with their wildcard game already set. Still, surrendering 92 points and losing by 45 combined points has certainly been a strong point of emphasis all offseason. If Philly wants to make a deep playoff run, then taking care of the Cowboys is high on their agenda. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (274) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (260) minus the points versus the New York Jets (259). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (3-2) looks to rebound from a 27-22 upset loss to the New York Giants as an 8.5-point favorite in London last Sunday. New York (3-2) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with a 40-17 upset win against Miami as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay controlled most of their game with the Giants — they held a 20-10 lead at halftime — but sleepwalked through the second half overconfident that they would always find a way to pull the game out against Daniel Jones. But Aaron Rodgers audibled out of likely successful running plays at the goal line to telegraph his little slant throw that everyone knows he likes — and the Giants’ defense successfully batted the last pass down to steal the game. Players called out Rodgers afterward — and maybe what this team needs is some internal tension to raise the level of urgency. As it is, Rodgers has led the Packers to nine straight wins after losing their last game with the average winning margin being by more than 14 points — and he has nine touchdown passes without an interception in those nine games. Green Bay has been resilient when facing (regular season) adversity — they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a point spread loss. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss. Returning home to Lambeau Field will make a big difference where Green Bay has a 24-3 record since the beginning of the 2019 season. Rodgers’ personal record as the starter at Lambeau is 23-1 in his last 24 with 15 straight wins. The Packers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. New York has pulled off two straight upset wins after stunning Pittsburgh on the road two weeks ago. We had the Steelers in that game — Mitch Trubisky gets benched at halftime for Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh run defense collapsed late in that game when the Jets seemed satisfied to just burn time and kick a field goal to force overtime. The fortunate breaks continued last week with Teddy Bridgewater getting injured for the Dolphins in his first series of the game leaving Miami to have to play 7th-round draft pick, Skylar Thompson, at quarterback after not practicing with the first-team offense all week. But remember that it was still a 19-17 game five minutes into the fourth quarter before mistakes by Thompson contributed to the Jets scoring three late touchdowns to produce a final score that was not indicative of how close the game was. New York has skated by facing some of the least threatening quarterbacks in the league: Jacoby Brissett, Trubisky/Pickett, Bridgewater/Thompson. In their two games against Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, the Jets’ defense has surrendered six touchdown passes with only one interception. The Jets should get exposed in this one. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win by three or more touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Having had action against the Jets the last two weeks, I have seen some of the sketchy plays that second-year quarterback Zach Wilson has made that do not translate into the box score. He benefited from facing an injury-depleted Dolphins secondary — but the assignment is much tougher against this angry Packers defense. New York is still banged up at tackle having to rely on fourth and fifth stringers. Wilson has a 3-6 record in his nine career starts on the road. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games against teams wit ha winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Execution should lead to the Packers pulling away in this one. The Jets rank 28th in 3rd Down Defense even with that rogue's gallery of quarterbacks they have played in three of their games — and here comes Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder after last week. The Green Bay defense has held their opponents to converting just 3 of 23 third downs of seven or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. This is a “relax” game for Rodgers against this Jets’ team playing over their head. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (260) minus the points versus the New York Jets (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (105) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (106). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-4) lost for the fourth straight time on Sunday in a 21-17 loss at home to Tennessee as a 1-point underdog. Chicago (2-3) has lost two in a row after a 29-22 loss at Minnesota as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Washington has been a mess this season with Carson Wentz being responsible for seven giveaways with six interceptions including his pick at the goal-line to spoil a potential game-winning drive against the Titans. The Commanders dominated everything but the scoreboard in that game by gaining 385 yards and only giving up 241 yards. That is a good sign for them moving forward as they are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than 250 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Washington has covered the point spread in 4 straight games when on a four-game losing streak. Chicago rallied against an over-confident Vikings team last week before Minnesota pulled away. The Bears only gained 271 yards in that contest while surrendering 429 total yards. Chicago is 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games at home as an underdog. This is a limited Bears offense right now with Justin Fields being asked to pass the ball only 88 times in five games this season. Chicago ranks 30th in Passing DVOA offense according to the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Bears want to run the ball — but the Commanders are tough against run by holding their last three opponents to 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry and just 80 rushing YPG. They rank 6th in Run Defense DVOA. Additionally, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October — and they are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games on Thursdays.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Bears — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing them in Soldier Field. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington Commanders (105) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Chicago Bears (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (105) and the Chicago Bears (106). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-4) lost for the fourth straight time on Sunday in a 21-17 loss at home to Tennessee as a 1-point underdog. Chicago (2-3) has lost two in a row after a 29-22 loss at Minnesota as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We are confronted with another low Total below 40 — but when it looks hard to just not take the Over, that is when we need to swallow hard and give the Under strong consideration. These are two of the worst offenses in the league playing on a short week. It would not be a surprise if at least one of these teams struggles to reach 14 points. The Total suggests this game is a race to 20 points — and both coaches will likely embrace the concept, making a lower-scoring game a self-fulfilling prophecy. Washington scores 18.0 Points-Per-Game — and they rank 30th in offense according to the DVOA metric at Football Outsiders. They have only scored 35 combined points in their last three games behind a mediocre offensive line that is now decimated by injuries. Three original starters, center Chase Roullier, right guard Wes Schweitzer, and right tackle Sam Cosmi, are all out for this game. The Commanders rank 28th in the NFL by averaging just 89 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they rank 30th by giving up 20 sacks to Carson Wentz already this season. Wentz will be without two important targets in the passing game with both rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson and tight end Logan Thomas declared out for this game. As it is, the Commanders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. And while Washington managed to gain 385 yards last week against the Titans, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Commanders have played three straight Unders while not scoring more than 17 points in any of those three games. They have then played 6 straight Unders after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. They have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 8 straight Unders after losing three in a row. And while Washington has not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 20 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four straight games. Chicago is scoring only 17.2 PPG this season while averaging just 274.0 total YPG which is second-to-last in the NFL — and they rank 29th in Offensive DVOA. They managed only 271 yards last week against the Vikings. The Bears have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. The Vikings generated 429 yards against them last week — but they have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while that game finished above the 43.5-point total, they have played 10 go their last 15 games Under the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. They return home where they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Chicago defense has been tough at home as they have held their first two opponents to only 15.0 PPG and 330.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total in October — and the Commanders have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total. Expect plenty of punts and Red Zone failures — and both coaches will play conservatively. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (105) and the Chicago Bears (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (480) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (479). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (3-1) comes off a 41-31 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2-point underdog last Sunday night. Las Vegas (1-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 32-23 win against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City demonstrated that their offense will continue to roll even without Tyreek Hill by overwhelming an outstanding Buccaneers last week. Patrick Mahomes is doing a great job in distributing the football to open receivers — and head coach Andy Reid is willing to dial up the running game against defenses that playing the in-vogue two high safety shell schemes to take away big plays in the passing game. The Chiefs ran for 189 yards against the stout Tampa Bay run defense while generating 417 total yards. They have scored at least 27 points in three of their four games while scoring 41 or more points twice. They are second in the NFL by averaging 32.3 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. And while they allowed 376 total yards to the Buccaneers last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Raiders will struggle to run the ball against the Chiefs' defense that leads the NFL by allowing only 66 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, that number is lower because opponents abandon the ground game — but their opponents are averaging just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry and they rank third in run defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. The 23 points that Las Vegas gave up to the Broncos were the fewest points they have allowed this season. The Raiders’ defense is allowing 25.0 PPG and 357.0 total YPG. They did hold Denver to just 299 total yards — but the Broncos only had 45 offensive plays in the game. They allowed Denver to average 6.64 Yards-Per-Play a week after allowing Tennessee to average 6.69 YPP the previous week. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 6.0 YPP — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing two at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Raiders did control the clock for 34:52 minutes against the Broncos last week while generating 25 first downs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a dominating effort where they gained at least 34 first downs while having their offense on the field for at least 34 minutes. If — and when — Las Vegas falls behind in this game, they will not have the luxury to try to keep Mahomes off the field by controlling the time of possession.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against the Chiefs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against them at Arrowhead Stadium. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted Deal with the Kansas City Chiefs (480) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (479) and the Kansas City Chiefs (480). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 32-23 win against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (3-1) comes off a 41-31 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs demonstrated that their offense will continue to roll even without Tyreek Hill by overwhelming an outstanding Buccaneers last week. Patrick Mahomes is doing a great job in distributing the football to open receivers — and head coach Andy Reid is willing to dial up the running game against defenses that playing the in-vogue two high safety shell schemes to take away big plays in the passing game. Kansas City ran for 189 yards against the stout Tampa Bay run defense while generating 417 total yards. The Chiefs have scored at least 27 points in three of their four games while scoring 41 or more points twice. They are second in the NFL by averaging 32.3 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while Tampa Bay ran the ball for only three yards last week, Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after outrushing their previous opponent by 75 or more yards. The Buccaneers fell behind early and abandoned the running game completely (which played a big role in ruining our Under in that game). A similar game script will likely take place tonight. The Raiders will struggle to run the ball against the Chiefs' defense that leads the NFL by allowing only 66 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, that number is lower because opponents abandon the ground game — but their opponents are averaging just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry and they rank third in run defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. But teams can pass on the Chiefs' defense that replaced three starting defensive backs in the offseason including Tyrann Mathieu. Kansas City is giving up 264 passing YPG with opposing quarterbacks completing 70.4% of the passes against them. The Chiefs' pass defense ranks 20th in the league DVOA. The Bucs averaged a healthy 6.4 Yards-Per-Play against them last week while converting touchdowns on all three of their trips inside the Red Zone. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The 23 points that Las Vegas gave up to the Broncos were the fewest points they have allowed this season. They have played two straight Overs — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing their last two games Over the Total. Additionally, the Raiders have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing three of four contests. Two of their games have seen at least 52 combined points — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Las Vegas defense is allowing 25.0 PPG and 357.0 total YPG. They did hold Denver to just 299 total yards — but the Broncos only had 45 offensive plays in the game. They allowed Denver to average 6.64 YPP a week after allowing Tennessee to average 6.69 YPP the previous week. The Raiders have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing two straight opponents to generate at least 6.0 YPP. Furthermore, the Over is 8-3-1 in Las Vegas’ last 12 games in October. The Raiders have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against AFC West rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has averaged 36 PPG in their last nine games against the Raiders with Mahomes under center. These two teams have played their last four games Over the Total with the Chiefs scoring 48 and 41 points in both games last year. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (479) and the Kansas City Chiefs (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (477) and the Baltimore Ravens (478). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-2) won their second-straight game with their 27-15 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite two Thursdays ago. Baltimore (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 23-20 loss to Buffalo as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight Unders after a point spread victory. They gained 371 yards in the win — and they have played 6 straight Unders after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. And while they gave up 378 yards in that contest, they have played 4 straight Unders after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Bengals have not rushed for more than 89 yards in three straight games, they have then played 9 straight Unders after not rushing for more than 99 yards in at least two straight games. Despite the yardage allowed against the Dolphins, Cincinnati has been impressive on defense this season. They rank 8th in the league by holding their opponents to just 327.5 total Yards-Per-Game — and the five touchdowns they have conceded is the second-fewest in the NFL. The Bengals are 4th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 86 rushing YPG — and they are 4th in the league in 3rd Down defense. They are holding their opponents to just 17.5 PPG. Baltimore’s defense may have played their best game of the season last week by holding the powerful Bills offense to just 326 total yards. But the Ravens only managed 296 yards of offense themselves. AFC North opponents tend to do a better job containing Lamar Jackson because they play him twice a year and developing a cogent plan against his unique skillset is essential to beating Baltimore. In holding the Ravens to just 19.0 PPG in their two games against them last year, the Bengals held them to just 154 rushing yards combined in both games. Cincinnati took away the run and dared Jackson to beat him with his arm — but not only is wide receiver Marquise Brown now playing in Arizona, but his replacement Rashod Bateman is also out today with a foot injury.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati goes back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 32 of their last 46 games on the road Under the Total with the number set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (477) and the Baltimore Ravens (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.