NFL Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
12-10-17 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 42.5 | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (131) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (132). Baltimore (7-5) has won four of their last five games with their 44-20 win over Detroit last Sunday. The Ravens have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. Baltimore generated 370 yards of offense in that contest — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens’ defense surrounded 372 yards of offense to the Lions — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 5 games in the month of December, Baltimore has played all 5 of these games Over the Total. |
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12-10-17 | Ravens +6 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (131) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (132). Baltimore (7-5) has won three straight games — as well as four of their last five contests — with their 44-20 win over Detroit last Sunday. This Ravens team is playing with confidence behind an outstanding defense and an improving offense that is finding themselves after being ravaged with injuries to start the season. Joe Flacco completed 23 of 36 passes against the Lions for 269 yards with two TD passes to lead the offense for 370 total yards. Baltimore is then 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens defense has allowed only 400 yards only once this season — and that was their game in London with those unique travel situations. Baltimore will be playing their revenge on their minds after losing by a 26-9 score at home to the Steelers back on October 1st. Flacco has won two of his last three starts in Pittsburgh while leading his team to score 80 combined points in that contest. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against fellow AFC North opponents. The Ravens are also 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record, Baltimore is 3-0-1 ATS. |
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12-10-17 | Eagles +1 v. Rams | 43-35 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (127) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (128). Philadelphia (10-2) looks to bounce-back from their 24-10 upset loss at Seattle as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday night. The Eagles did not rush for at least 100 yards for the first time since the opening week of the season in that game. But this team should have benefited from the playoff atmosphere from that game. This is a business trip for this Philly team that stayed out west for this game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. The Eagles did dominate the yardage battle as they generated 425 yards against the Seahawks defense while outgaining them by +115 net yards. Philadelphia has then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Philly defense has been playing quite well as they have allowed only 69 combined yards for a 13.8 PPG average. The offense will get tight end Zach Ertz back on the field for this game after he was unable to finish the game on Sunday. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC opponents. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, the Eagles have covered the point spread 8 times. |
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12-10-17 | Titans v. Cardinals +3 | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (121) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (122). Los Angeles (6-6) has won three straight games with their 19-10 win over Cleveland as a 13.5-point favorite. The Chargers were actually outgained the lowly Browns by -138 net yards as they generated only 291 yards. A +2 net turnover margin helped make up for a defense that surrendered 429 yards of offense to DeShone Kizer and company. That defense allowed five big plays of at least 25 yards in that game. Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Chargers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. This team stays at home where they have little home field advantage given their still lack of familiarity with that field and few supporters in the LA area. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 5 games in the month of December, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in all 5 games. |
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12-10-17 | Redskins +6.5 v. Chargers | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (121) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (122). Los Angeles (6-6) has won three straight games with their 19-10 win over Cleveland as a 13.5-point favorite. The Chargers were actually outgained the lowly Browns by -138 net yards as they generated only 291 yards. A +2 net turnover margin helped make up for a defense that surrendered 429 yards of offense to DeShone Kizer and company. That defense allowed five big plays of at least 25 yards in that game. Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread loss. The Chargers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. This team stays at home where they have little home field advantage given their still lack of familiarity with that field and few supporters in the LA area. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And int heir last 5 games in the month of December, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in all 5 games. 10* NFL play on Washington. Best of luck for us-- Frank. |
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12-10-17 | Raiders v. Chiefs -4 | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (107) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (108). Cincinnati (5-7) plays this game coming off a short week in what resulted in a 23-20 loss at home to the Steelers. That was a very physical game with plenty of emotions involved in that heated rivalry. That sets this underachieving Bengals team to suffer a big letdown when now facing this mediocre Bears team. Cincinnati had won their previous two games to make their record look better — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Bengals have covered the point spread in four straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in at least contests. This is a banged up football team playing on a short week. Joe Mixon, Vontaze Burfict and Dre Kilpatrick have all been declared out for this game. Furthermore, favorites laying 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range who have won two of their last three games now facing a team with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range have then failed to cover the point spread in 29 of the last 37 situations (78%) where these conditions applied. |
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12-10-17 | Vikings v. Panthers +3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (116) plus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (115). Carolina (8-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 31-21 loss in New Orleans as a 5.5-point favorite. The Panthers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, New Orleans outgained them by 121 yards in that game — but this franchise has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 home games after being outgained by at least 100 yards in their last game. And while the Panthers allowed the Saints to pass for 252 yards, they are then 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This team has been playing good football as of late with Cam Newton fully healed from a shoulder injury that slowed him down to begin the season. He is averaging a whopping 7.0 Yards-Per-Carry over his last seven contests while completing throwing to the wind those rumors in the offseason that he would not be running the ball anymore. A healthy Greg Olsen is back on the field to offer Newton his favorite passing target as well. Returning home will help after the Panthers have played their last two games on the road — and Carolina has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing their last two games on the road. And in their last 11 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of these games. Carolina has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as the underdog. Finally on the Panthers side of the equation, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 20* NFL play with Carolina plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
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12-10-17 | Bears +6.5 v. Bengals | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (107) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (108). Cincinnati (5-7) plays this game coming off a short week in what resulted in a 23-20 loss at home to the Steelers. That was a very physical game with plenty of emotions involved in that heated rivalry. That sets this underachieving Bengals team to suffer a big letdown when now facing this mediocre Bears team. Cincinnati had won their previous two games to make their record look better — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Bengals have covered the point spread in four straight contests — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in at least contests. This is a banged up football team playing on a short week. Joe Mixon, Vontaze Burfict and Dre Kilpatrick have all been declared out for this game. Furthermore, favorites laying 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range who have won two of their last three games now facing a team with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range have then failed to cover the point spread in 29 of the last 37 situations where these conditions applied. 10* NFL play on Chicago plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
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12-10-17 | Cowboys v. Giants +4 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (130) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (129). There will be plenty of emotion in the Meadowlands this afternoon as the proverbial Prodigal Son in Eli Manning returns to the starting lineup in a stadium that will be full of Eli jerseys in the wake of the firing of Giants’ head coach Ben McAdoo along with their general manager Jerry Reese. New York (2-10) has played two straight games on the road — as well as three of their last four contests. That long game at home was an upset win over the Chiefs. I look for this team to play inspired football under this situation — especially for interim head coach Steve Spagnola who represents Big Blue as the defensive coordinator for a Super Bowl Championship with Manning under center. This also is an opportunity for this team to play spoiler against the Cowboys while avenging a 19-3 loss in Dallas back on September 10th. The Giants look to bounce-back from their 24-17 loss at Oakland last week as a 10-point underdog. New York rushed for only 65 yards in that game after managing just 84 rushing yards in Washington the week before. But the Giants are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 tams after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in two straight games. Additionally, New York scored only 7 points in the first half of their game with the Raiders — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of their last game. Furthermore, the Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as the underdog. |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons UNDER 52 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (101) and the Atlanta Falcons (102). New Orleans (9-3) rebounded from their loss in Los Angeles to the Rams with their 31-21 win over Carolina last week. The Saints flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Panthers to just 279 yards of offense. Part of the success of the New Orleans defense is staying off the field. Drew Braes had his offense on the field for 33:21 of that game led by an effective rushing attack that ran the ball 28 times for 140 yards. The Saints will certainly a take a page or two from the Vikings defense that only allowed 9 points to the Falcons last week. New Orleans should commit themselves to running the football to control the Time of Possession — and that is a good formula for the Under. Tellingly, the Saints have played 9 of their last 14 games on the road Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. New Orleans has also seen the Under go 4-0-1 in their last 5 games played on a Thursday night. |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (102) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (101). Atlanta (7-5) faces a must-win situation as they find themselves outside the NFC Playoff picture after their 14-9 upset loss as a 2-point favorite to Minnesota on Sunday. But this Falcons team also had a 7-5 record at this point last season — and they, of course, went on to play in the Super Bowl. A tough strength of schedule has contributed to their disappointing results so far relative to their sky-high expectations. Atlanta has four NFC South opponents remaining to close out their schedule — so they still likely control their own destiny. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against NFC opponents — and they have also covered the point spread in five of their last seven games against fellow NFC South foes. Furthermore, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. And in their last 7 appearances on Thursday Night Football, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of these games. |
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12-04-17 | Steelers -4 v. Bengals | 23-20 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (379) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (380). Pittsburgh (9-2) has won six straight games with their 31-28 win over Green Bay last Sunday night as a big 14-point favorite. The Steelers now face a divisional rival in the Bengals that they defeated back on October 22nd. And while Cincinnati will be playing with revenge on their minds, Pittsburgh has won thirteen of their last fifteen trips to Cincinnati while scoring 26 PPG with Ben Roethlisberger starting under center. Furthermore, the Steelers are a whopping 16-3-2 ATS in their last 21 games in Cincinnati against the Bengals. Expect a big game from Pittsburgh as they get a chance to redeem themselves on national television after almost getting upset on national TV last week. The are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And while the Steelers offense did generate 462 yards of offense last week, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in the month of December. |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (379) and the Cincinnati Bengals (380). Cincinnati (5-6) exploded for 30 points last week with their 30-16 victory over the winless Bengals as a 7.5-point favorite. The Bengals generated 405 yards of offense which was far above their league-bottom 274.3 total YPG average this season. Cincinnati is scoring only 18.1 PPG which is 25th in the NFL. One of the league’s worst offensive lines is the biggest culprit for these problems on offense and helps to explain why they are 26th in the NFL with the pass (198.6 passing YPG) and last in the league with the run (75.6 rushing YPG). The Bengals have then played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight up victory. The Cincinnati defense has been solid this season — despite being on the field too much given their anemic offense. The Bengals are 10th in the NFL by allowing just 19.5 PPG. Cincy did give up 361 yards last week — but they have then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. And in their last 16 games against fellow AFC North opponents, the Bengals have played 12 of these games Under the Total. |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (378) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (377). Seattle (7-4) will be a home underdog for just the first time in five seasons tonight. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 home games when getting 3.5 to 7 points. Seattle enters this game coming off their 24-13 win in San Francisco last week as a 7-point favorite. The Seahawks are on the outside looking in when it comes to the NFC playoff picture — so this is a game they really need to win. While they battered with injuries, this is still a veteran team with plenty of playoff savvy led by quarterback Russell Wilson. Seattle is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games in the month of December. |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 46 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (377) and the Seattle Seahawks (378). Philadelphia (10-1) has won nine straight games with their 31-3 win over Chicago last week. The Eagles offense is clicking on all cylinders right now — they generated 420 yards of offense against an underrated Bears defense. Philadelphia has then played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Eagles go back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total — and this includes playing four of their last five road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 23 of their last 31 games Over the Total in the month of December. And in their last 11 games played on field turf, Philadelphia has played 9 of these games Over the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with the Over. Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
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12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -5 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (370) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (369). New Orleans (8-3) looks to bounce-back from their 26-20 loss at Los Angeles agains the Rams last Sunday. The Saints’ defense surrendered 415 yards in that contest — but they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The defense should be better this week with rookie Marcus Lattimore practicing this week and likely to take the field after missing last week. Now New Orleans returns home to the Big Easy where they have covered the point spread in a decisive 22 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against NFC opponents — and this includes covering the spread in four straight games against NFC South foes. |
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12-03-17 | Rams v. Cardinals +7.5 | 32-16 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 51 m | Show | |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (374) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (373). Los Angeles (8-3) has won five of their last six games with their 26-20 win over the Saints last week. The Rams generated 415 yards of offense in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC West opponents. Furthermore, LA has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in the month of December. Additionally, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. |
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12-03-17 | Browns +14 v. Chargers | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (371) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (372). Los Angeles (5-6) seems to be everyone’s sleeper team in the AFC after winning their fifth game over their last seven games with their 28-6 win in Dallas back on Thanksgiving. But it is true that a team cannot be a “sleeper” if almost everyone go Woke on them. I still remember a Philip Rivers team that has blown eight 4th quarter leads since the 2015 season — so I do not consider them reliable double-digit favorites even against the lowly Browns. The Chargers held the Cowboys to just 168 yards in that last game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing no more than 250 yards in their last game. Now Los Angeles returns home to Stub Hub Stadium where they hold zero home advantage in an empty building. As it is, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And while the LA defense has been good at times this season, they still rank last in the league by allowing 133.5 rushing YPG. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of December. |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Jets | 31-38 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 50 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (367) minus the points versus the New York Jets (368). Kansas City (6-5) has lost five of their last six games with their 16-10 loss at home to Buffalo last week despite being an 8.5-point favorite. The Chiefs were practically anointed as the Super Bowl Champions early in the season — and now they are being left for dead during this current swoon. The answer is somewhere in the middle for this team regarding what are reasonable expectations. The offense is struggling under QB Alex Smith — but the problems are not really his fault under closer analysis. In that loss to the Bills last week, Kansas City receivers dropped four catchable balls in their first six drives while offensive players blew assignments and committed penalties. Quite simply, the Chiefs need to decrease their mental mistakes — which they can do this week. KC has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And in their last 12 games on the road, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of these games. Furthermore, these Chiefs are road warriors that have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games as the favorite. One last reason for optimism for this team: their Darrelle Revis Era starts this afternoon with their recently signed cornerback not only starting but assigned as one of Andy Reid’s captain’s for this game. |
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12-03-17 | Texans v. Titans -6.5 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (362) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (361). Tennessee (7-4) enters this game coming off a 20-16 win in Indianapolis last week. The Titans defense flexed their muscles by holding the Colts to just 254 total yards while sacking Indy QB Jacoby Brissett eight times. Now this team returns home where their QB Marcus Mariota has won eight of his last ten starts. The Titans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This team will have something to prove this week as they look to avenge a rough 57-14 loss at Houston back on October 1st. The Texans’ DeShaun Watson did most of the damage on offense in that game but he is now lost for the season with his ACL injury. The home team has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams. And in the Titans last 4 games when avenging a loss by at least four touchdowns against their opponents, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 3 of those occasions. |
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12-03-17 | Vikings v. Falcons -2.5 | 14-9 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (356) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (355). Atlanta (7-4) has won three straight games with their 34-20 win over Tampa Bay last week. The Falcons offense is starting to hum again like it did last season as they racked up 516 yards of offense against the Buccaneers defense. Over his last five starts, QB Matt Ryan has a 9:2 touchdown to interception ratio while generating a QB Rating over 107. He completed 26 of 35 passes for 317 yards with a TD pass last week — and Atlanta has then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, Atlanta has covered the point spread 5 times. |
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12-03-17 | Colts +10 v. Jaguars | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (363) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (364). Indianapolis (3-8) looks to avenge a 27-0 shutout loss at home to these Jaguars back on October 22nd. The Colts have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when avenging a loss at home by at least two touchdowns to their opponent. Additionally, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss by at least three touchdowns against their opponents. Furthermore, the Colts have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss where they failed to score more than 9 points — and this includes covering their last three games in that situation. Indianapolis has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 20-16 loss to Tennessee last week as a 3-point underdog. The Colts have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by 6 points or less. Indianapolis has also covered the point spread in a decisive 32 of their last 44 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after losing three of their last four games. Indy goes back on the road — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. |
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11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys +2 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (302) plus (or minus) the points versus the Washington Redskins (301). Washington (5-6) enters this game coming off a 20-10 win over the New York Giants as a 7-point favorite on Thanksgiving last week — but this injury-riddled team has still lost four of their last six games. The Skins have then failed to cover the points spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Washington has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Skins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, Washington out-gained the Giants by +153 net yards in that contest — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. This team is just 2-3 on the road where they are being outscored by -2.4 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle by -68.8 net YPG given their defense that is surrendering 420.8 total YPG. |
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11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 47 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Redskins (301) and the Dallas Cowboys (302). Dallas (5-6) has fallen on hard times after Ezekiel Elliott began serving his six-game suspension as they ave lost three straight games after their 28-6 loss to the Chargers last Thursday on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys’ offense has been a complete disaster as they have scored only a combined 22 points while failing to reach double-digits in all three of those games. Given that, it might be very tempting to take the Under — but this is a good situation to take the contrarian play with the Over. I do expect the Dallas’ offense behind QB Dak Prescott to be much better with a full week of practice under their belts. Remember, the Elliott injury came at the very worst time in terms of the schedule with the Cowboys playing three games over an twelve day period. They simply did not have much time to address the problems with the offense after that Falcons game with the Giants coming to town just four days later. Furthermore, left tackle Tyron Smith has had a full week to getting healthier after the Dallas offense spent the entire first-half in their game last Thursday avoiding running the ball to his side. But even if the Cowboys’ offense remains limited without Elliott, the defense presents another set of problems for this team. The Dallas defense has surrendered 92 combined points over their last three games. At home this season, the Cowboys are allowing 25.8 PPG along with 368.0 total YPG. Additionally, Dallas has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and linebacker Sean Lee has been declared out for this game once again this week. |
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11-27-17 | Texans +7.5 v. Ravens | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (275) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (276). Houston (4-6) snapped their three-game losing streak last week with their 31-21 win over Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite. The consistent characteristic of this Texans team continues to be that head coach Bill O’Brien always has this team prepared and usually gets the most out of his talent despite seemingly always being ravaged with injuries. QB Tom Savage made some very nice throws against the Cardinals defense — he was 22 of 32 for 230 yards with two touchdown passes. Overall, Houston generated 357 yards against Arizona — and they are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Texans have lost four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in a decisive 41 of their last 68 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Additionally, Houston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on turf. And in their last 4 road games as the underdog, the Texans have covered the point spread in 3 of these games. |
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11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens OVER 39 | Top | 16-23 | Push | 0 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (275) and the Baltimore Ravens (276). Baltimore (5-5) pitched their third shutout of the season — and second in their last three games — with their 23-0 win at Green Bay last Sunday. The strong Ravens’ defense has facilitated the Total being set at a low number below 40 (as of this writing) — so lets attack that Over. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, the Ravens have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after the first month of the season. And while this Baltimore offense looks anemic with their 21.3 PPG scoring mark which is 18th in the league, they are getting better on that side of the ball as they get healthier after suffering from a barrage of injuries. In their last three games, the Ravens are scoring 27.7 PPG while still not getting very aggressive with their play-calling with their two of those games being blowout shutouts. Their close game in their last three games was a 23-20 loss at Tennessee in a game where Joe Flacco aired the football out 53 times for 268 passing yards. Those are Over numbers. Moving forward, Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. |
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11-26-17 | Packers v. Steelers OVER 43.5 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (273) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). Green Bay (5-5) was shutout last week in their 23-0 shellacking at the hands of Baltimore as a 2.5-point underdog. It goes without saying that the Packers are a dramatically different team with QB Aaron Rodgers. But I do have confidence in head coach Mike McCarthy to scheme his way to points this week with the players he has left including QB Brett Hundley. Green Bay has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Packers have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Green Bay defense did limit the Ravens to just 219 yards in their loss — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing less than 250 yards in their last game. Their defense could be in big trouble tonight against this powerful Pittsburgh offense — and they will likely be without linebacker Clay Matthews for this contest. |
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11-26-17 | Packers +14 v. Steelers | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). These are too many points to pass up in this situation — even with Aaron Rodgers not playing for the Packers. Pittsburgh (8-2) finally demonstrated the vast potential that many pundits feel they possess back on November 16th when they crushed the Colts by a 40-17 score as 7-point favorites. Yet they only outgained Indianapolis by 27 yards. It was a +4 net turnover margin that helped the Steelers dominate that game. But Pittsburgh has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. And the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games when installed as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the month of November. |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (268) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (267). New Orleans (8-2) won their eighth straight game this season in spectacular fashion as they rallied from an 18-point deficit at one point along with a 15-point hole with three minutes to go to eke out a 34-31 win in overtime over Washington. The Saints are the hottest team in the NFL but they cannot continue to live life on the edge like that. Now they play this game without their two starting cornerbacks with both Marcus Lattimore and Ken Crawley declared out for this game. Their absence will make things very difficult when facing this high-powered Rams offense that scores 30.3 PPG. The Saints may be due for a letdown here as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning at least six straight contests. And while New Orleans has covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after covering the spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. Furthermore, the Saints have scored at least 30 points in their last three games but have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after scoring at least 25 points in their last three games. New Orleans has averaged 474.7 total YPG over those three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three contests. And in their last 4 road games when favored by no more than a field goal, the Saints have failed to cover the point spread 3 times. |
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11-26-17 | Jaguars v. Cardinals +5.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (270) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (269). Jacksonville (7-3) has won four games in a row after their 19-7 win in Cleveland last week as a 7.5-point favorite. The Jaguars have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after a point spread victory. Jacksonville has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. Defense has been leading the way for this team — they held the Browns to only 184 yards of offense. But the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Jacksonville has failed to cover the points spread in 8 of their last 9 games against fellow NFC opponents. 25* NFL Game of the Month with Arizona plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank. |
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11-26-17 | Seahawks v. 49ers +7 | 24-13 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (266) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (265). Seattle (6-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 34-31 loss at home to Atlanta last Monday as a 1-point underdog. The Seahawks have then gone 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Seattle has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. This defense is ravaged with injuries with Richard Sherman out the year with his ACL tear and Kam Chancellor out with a neck injury which pretty much dismantles their Legion of Boom. The Seahawks did generate 360 yards against the Falcons defense but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Seattle goes back on the road where they are just 2-6-1 ATS — and they have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Seahawks are also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in the month of November. And in their last 5 games against NFC West opponents, Seattle is just 1-3-1 ATS. |
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11-26-17 | Panthers v. Jets +6 | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (262) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (261). Carolina (7-3) is riding high coming off their bye week after a dominant 45-21 win on national television for Monday Night Football against the woeful Dolphins back on November 13th. But with a showdown with the Saints on deck next week, don’t be surprised if this Panthers’ team comes out a bit lethargic. As it is, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Cam Newton completed 21 of 35 passes for 254 yards and numerous Super Man poses — but the Panthers have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Tight end Greg Olsen is returning to the offense for this team — but they lost their rookie slot back Curtis Samuel to a season-ending injury last week which does take away an important weapon for Newton. |
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11-26-17 | Bucs +10 v. Falcons | 20-34 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (259) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (260). Atlanta (6-4) returns home after their triumphant 34-31 win in Seattle for Monday Night Football. Don’t be surprised if this Falcons team suffers a big emotional letdown after that victory. The win was huge for this organization considering that head coach Dan Quinn is a disciple of Pete Carroll while playing an integral part in winning a Super Bowl with the franchise as their defensive coordinator. Teams are often flat the week after playing the physical Seahawks — and playing on a short week after the long flight back from the northwest part of the country does not help that situation. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 53 games at home after scoring at least 30 points. The Falcons have won and covered the point spread in two straight games after their 27-7 win over a free-falling Cowboys team without Ezekiel Elliott two weeks ago — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 home games after winning at least two straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 46 home games after covering the point spread in two straight contests. Additionally, the Atlanta run defense is a concern for this team as they are allowing opponents to average 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents have averaged a whopping 5.4 YPC. On the other side of the football, the Falcons will be without their top running back Devonta Freeman who remains out due to the concussion protocols. That makes Atlanta precarious favorites laying more than a touchdown. The Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite laying 7.5 to 10 points. |