The set-up: 7-5 Georgia State gets ready to pull off an upset over 7-5 Wyoming. The Cowboys though finised up terribly, losing three of their last four. Wyoming is very one-dimensional on the offensive end, ranked 27th in rushing and 125th with the pass. The Cowboys also only concede 17.8 PPG. Georgia State also stumbled down the stretch, losing three of four and just like the Cowboys, the Panthers rely on a strong run game on the offensive side of the ball, averaging 245.2 YPG, which is ranked 14th in the country. 

The pick: Wyoming only averages 24.3 PPG though, and that drops to just 15.3 PPG over its last four. The Panthers were terrible defensively down the stretch, but those numbers are skewed in my opinion due to the level of the competition. Georgia State' QB Dan Ellington had a sharp 21:7 TD:INT and I think he'll keep his team competitive late. Wyoming is sixth against the rush, but 111th against the pass. Look for Ellington and the Panthers to take advantage. Grab the points.

8* play on Georgia State.

The set-up: I like K-State to pull off the minor upset here today vs. 10-2 Navy. Kansas State finished 8-4 and won its last two games. The Midshipmen won eight of their final nine contests. Navy most recently crushed hapless Army, outrushing the Knights 395-123. K-State' QB Skylar Thompson though is a dual threat, throwing for 2,000 yards and 12 TD's, while running in for another ten on the ground. 

The pick: K-State held both Iowa State and Texas Tech to less than 80 rushing yards each in its final two victories of the year and I believe they're going to be able to slow down this run heavy Navy attack. Additionally note that K-State is 6-2 ATS already this year when playing the role of underdog, while Navy is already only 1-3 ATS this season after allowing 14 points or less in its previous outing. Grab the points.

8* play on Kansas State. 

The set-up: I think that 6-6 Florida State will have its hands full with 7-5 Arizona State. Both teams enter with some momentum. FSU though got crushed in its final game vs. Florida, while ASU, who has looked far from perfect, will still now be looking to build off its season closing 31-28 upset win over Oregon, which pushed it out of the championship. FSU is led by James Blackman and RB Cam Akers, who had 1,144 rushing yards and 14 TD's. At the end of the day the Seminoles averaged 29.1 PPG. ASU' QB Jayden Daniels had 400 passing yards and three TD's in the win over Oregon. Daniels is a difference maker here in my opinion, as the talented back finished with a sharp 17:2 TD:INT. 

The pick: Additionally note that FSU is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a dog and 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest, while ASU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 following a SU loss. I think the balance that ASU presents on both sides of the ball will be too much for FSU to handle down the stretch. Lay the points.

8* play on ASU.

The set-up: I like the 8-4 Virginia Tech Hokies to find a way to get the job done here. Kentucky is 7-5 and is reliant upon its ground game on offense, while VT has a much more balanced attack. Ultimately I believe it's this balance which will win the day on this one. VT had won three straight before then falling 39-30 to UVA in rivarly week. QB Hendon Hooker was decen this year with 1,445 yards passing and an 11:2 TD:INT. 

The pick: The Wildcats ended the season with a 45-13 win over Louisville, as Lynn Bowden Jr. had 284 yards and four TD's. I think VT though can slow down Bowden Jr and note that the Wildcats are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after covering the spread in six or seven out of their last eight games, while VT is 3-1 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest. Lay the points.

8* play on Virginia Tech.

The set-up: Virginia lost to Clemson in the ACC Title game and finished 9-4, while Florida wasn't quite as good as Georgia in the SEC, but still finishing 10-2. The Cavs fell 62-17 to Clemson in the title game, but overall UVA has been solid on both sides of the ball, averaging 32.4 PPG and allowing 26.5. The Gators are averaging 33 PPG and allowing only 14.4. I think UVA is going to have difficulties moving the ball again vs. this Florida defense which is ranked among the best in the nation. 

The pick: Note as well that UVA has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five following a two weeks or longer lay off, while Florida has seen the total go under in four of its last five vs. teams with winning records. Florida went over the number just four times this year and I don't expect that strong trend to change tonight. Play the under. 

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER UVA/Florida.

The set-up: Outright win? It's possible obviously. But in a contest which I envision to be very competitive, I'm going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Both teams finished 6-6. Cal had to win its last two games to become eligible, while Illinois backed its way into this Bowl after losing its final two outings. Cal is stout defensively, allowing only 22.1 PPG. Unfortunatley it only averages 20.1 PPG, led by QB Chase Garbers. The Illini lost 19-10 to Iowa and then 29-10 to Northwestern. Illinois though averages 27.3 PPG, while allowing 25.4. 

The pick: Despite injuries, I like the Fighting Illini here. Note as well that they're 8-4 ATS in their last 12 off two straight loss against conference rivals (including 2-0 ATS this season,) while Cal is only 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite (including just 2-4 ATS this year.) Grab the points.

8* BLOWOUT on Illinois.

The set-up: Louisville finished second behind Clemson in the ACC Atlantic at 7-5. After three straight victories it dropped its finale 45-13 to Kentucky. The road to this bowl was more difficult for Mississippi State though, which finshed 6-6, including a close one in its finale vs. Ole Miss to finally become eligible. The Cards like to run the ball, but expect to see a heavy dose of QB Micale Cunningham, as the Bulldogs are allowing 241.3 passing yards per game. Mississippi State likes to run the ball as well, averaging 226.9 YPG and while the Cardinals have struggled against the run this year, Louisville isn't going to have to worry about much of a passing attack this evening, as the Bulldogs are outside the Top 100 in that category, averaging 176 passing YPG. 

The pick: Note as well that Mississippi State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a neutral site favorite and only 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while Louisville is 3-1 ATS already this season after allowing 37 points or more in its previous outing. I'm grabbing the points. 

8* BLOWOUT on Louisville.

The set-up: I like 7-5 Western Michigan to pull off the minor upset vs. 8-4 WKU. The Hilltoppers have a decent offense, but they're led by their defense which allows 20.1 PPG. WMU though will be especially motivated here in my opinion because of the way its season ended. The Broncos lost to NIU 17-14 in their finale, which cost them a shot in the MAC Title game. WMU's offense though is among the best in the nation, averaging 34.2 PPG, behind a 24th ranked rushing attack. WKU QB Ty Storey has a weak 12:5 TD:INT. WMU is 69th in the country in defending the pass and 94th vs. the run. 

The pick: I'll point out though that WMU is 6-0 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 after scoring less than 20 points in its previous contest, while WKU is only 5-13 ATS in its last 18 as a favorite. WMU has a balanced offense as mentioned above, led by RB LeVante Ballamy, who has 1,412 rushing yards and 23 TD's. I'm expecting the outright, but in the end I'll grab the points.

8* BLOWOUT on WMU.

The set-up: The winner of this game will win the NFC West. Forget that the Seahawks have "Beast Mode" as their RB now. Forget about what each team has done to this point, and please just look at these stats below, as they are what I'm basing my pick on entirely:

Seahawks in primetime:

16-4-2 ATS L22 at home

14-4-1 ATS L19 divisional games

14-2 ATS L16 as an underdog

Seahawks as a home underdog:

9-0 ATS L9 

Seahawks after an ATS loss:

9-1-1 ATS

The pick: 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Seattle Seahawks.

The set-up: The 4-11 Miami Dolphins are at New England to take on the 12-3 Patriots. Miami and Ryan Fitzpatrick will be out to play spoiler here, so expect the visitors to open up the playbook from start to finish on offense (Fitzpatrick had four TD's in last week's 38-35 win over the Bengals.) The Patriots destroyed the Fish 43-0 in Week 2 and I believe that Tom Brady and company will be looking to end the season on a high-note as well. Brady has been shaky over the last month and the Pats just 4-3 SU their last seven. With one last chance for a tune-up, I think Brady puts on an exhibition today. 

The pick: Miami has seen the total go over in four of five in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent already this season, while NE has seen the total soar over in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 14.5 to 21 points range. Considering the situational and trend based factors listed above, I absolutely believe that this number is low.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Miami/New England.

The set-up: Clemson is 13-0 and Ohio State is 12-1. If you're betting and watching and this game, then the overall story lines and cast of characters are well known to you. The strengths and weaknesses are also well known to even a casual NCAAF fan. I don't need to break down individual player matchups, because I don't think it's necessary. While both teams have been exceptional on the defensive side of the ball, both have also been unreal offensively and ultimately I think that the longer lay off will be more beneficial to each teams offense. The Tigers have averaged 54.2 PPG over their last six games and just put up 62 vs. a stingy Virginia defense in the ACC Title game. Not to be outdone though, Ohio State is ranked No. 1 in the nation by averaging 48.7 PPG behind the strong play of QB Justin Fields.

The pick: Note as well that Clemson has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, while Ohio State has seen the total fly over the number in both games already this season in which it's had two weeks or more of rest in. This one has "shootout" written all over it.

10* BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Clemson/OSU.

The set-up: I'm not calling for an outright upset, but with nothing to loe, I like Oklahoma to keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Oklahoma is in its third playoff in a row and it's done it with three different QB's. This is a team which won't be intimidated in the "big moment." Jalen Hurts is a legit NFL prospect and I look for him to go down fighting. Ed Orgeron and QB Joe Burrow come into this game with an unblemished 13-0 record so far. In four of their last five games they've scored at least 46 points. But Hurts has the ability to keep this one close in my opinion. 

The pick: Oklahoma has been fantastic in this spot as wel lfor bettors, going 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while LSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival. Burrow has been amazing. The Tigers have a great defense as well. But the long lay off is going to cause some issues with chemistry in my opinion. I think the Sooners' overall experience in this big game pays dividends for the team here and helps in keeping this one much closer than expected. Grab the points.

10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma.

The set-up: Iowa State was 7-5 and Notre Dame was 10-2. Iowa State lost a bunch of "close" games this year. QB Brock Purdy had 12 TD's and just two INT's over his final four games. 

The pick: Ian Book didn't have nearly as good a season this time around as last for the Irish, but I still give him the nod in this spot. I also believe that the Irish easily have the defense to hang with Iowa State's vaunted unit. Additionally note that Iowa State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more straight losses vs. the spread, while ND is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 10 opints range, including 3-1 ATS this season. I'm banking on a blowout from start to finish.

8* BLOWOUT on Notre Dame.

The set-up: Outright upset? Very possible! Memphis comes in with confidence and momentum after beating Cincinnati 29-24 in the AAC Championship Game. Memphis is led by QB Brady White, who had 3,560 passing yards with a 33:9 TD:INT. The Tigers average 39.3 PPG and they won't be lacking for motivation here after going 0-4 in their last four bowl games. The Nittany Lions are led by QB Sean Clifford, who has 2,561 yards passing and a 22:6 TD:INT. Penn State only averages 30.3 PPG. 

The pick: Of importance to note in my opinion is the fact that Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while Penn State is just 5-6 ATS as a favorite this season. The Tigers have played three ranked opponents since November and they're 3-0. I think the long lay off benefits the offense of the underdog here. That said, grab the points.

8* BLOWOUT on Memphis.

The set-up: These are two teams that want to actually win this game and I believe that focus and intensity will translate into offensive production on the field of play tonight. WSU is coming off a listless loss to Washington in its finale, held to just 13 points. Clearly this top 10 Cougars offense will be eager to get back on track here. Expect WSU to air it out early and often with dynamic QB Anthony Gordon today. 

The pick: The Falcons enter having won seven straight. Air Force has a top 40 offense and a top 20 defense. Donald Hammond III will have his opportunities today as well vs. a Cougars' secondary which allows nearly 290 passing yards per game. I think this has one has "track meet" written all over it.

10* play on the OVER WSU/Air Force.

The set-up: It's 8-4 USC vs. 9-3 Iowa. The Trojans are going to try and air this one out, while the Hawkeyes will try to slow it down and grind out a victory. USC averages 33.2 PPG and it allows 27.7. Iowa averages only 23.8 PPG, but it only allows 13.1. USC lost to heavy weights Notre Dame, Washington and Oregon this year and it's led by Kedon Slovis, who I think will be a difference maker today (28:9 TD:INT.) He benefits from throwing to one of the best WR's in the country in Michael Pittman Jr. 

The pick: Iowa QB Nate Stanley has a 14:4 TD:INT. The Hawkeyes are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a favorite, while USC is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog. I think the long time off to prepare benefits the USC defense and I like Slovis to push the pace from start to finish. That said, grab the points.

8* play on USC.

The set-up: OKS is 7-4 and A&M is 7-5. In a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to recommend grabbing the points. The Cowboys will use two QB's today in Spencer Sanders and Dru Brown. OKS' defense leaves everything to be desired, but I expect this Mike Gundy led team to keep it close with its relentless attack through the air. 

The pick: Jimbo Fisher's second year at A&M has been a disappointment. Kellen Mond lacks weapons. The defense is the bright spot for the Aggies, but I think it'll have its hands full with this Cowboys "air raid" offensive style. I'm grabbing the points and expecting this one to come down to the wire.

8* play on Oklahoma State.

The set-up: MSU became eligible after beating Rutgers and Maryland. Wake Forest ended it's regular season campaign by losing three of four, but it was competitive in each loss, including a 39-30 setback to the Orange in its finale. The Spartans are led by Brian Lewerke, who had nearly 600 yards passing over his final two games. But that was against some pretty weak competition that didn't have a whole month to plan for this game. The MSU run game is weak and I think its offense will struggle to keep pace down the stretch. 

The pick: The Deacons have a more balanced attack, led by a run game which averages 297.8 YPG. WF QB Jamie Newman is superior too in my opinion, he finished with a 23:10 TD:INT. Michigan State is also just 2-4 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks or more of rest and a terrible 1-7 ATS in its last eight after playing a conference game, while WF is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog. Grab the points.

8* play on Wake Forest.

The set-up: It's 6-6 UNC vs. 8-4 Temple. I like the team from the ACC. The Tar Heels played the much tougher schedule and are in a much tougher conference. That didn't work out well for Miami last night, but that was partly because of the fact that they through in a new QB just before the game. UNC pivot Sam Howell had 3,347 passing yards with 35 TD's and seven INT's. Overall the Tar Heels average 285 YPG through the air. 

The pick: Temple QB Anthony Russo has a more pedestrian 21:12 TD:INT. The UNC run game is superior as well and I think this depth on offense will prove to be too much for Temple to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points.

8* play on UNC.

The set-up: Pitt fell 26-19 to Boston College at home in its regular season finale, while EMU also lost its final game, falling 34-26 to Kent State. The Panthers though come in with zero momentum as they dropped their final two games of the year, including getting blanked by Virginia Tech in their second to last game. Pittsburgh averages only 20.1 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing only 21.8. 

The pick: EMU averages 29.1 PPG and it allows 30.3. With a month off to prepare for this one though, I think that Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi can contain the Eagles' offense. The Panthers will indeed look to control the clock throughout this contest while on offense and in a scenario like this, the "under" is the correct call in my opinion. 

10* BLOWOUT on the UNDER Pitts/EMU.

The set-up: The Bulldogs went 9-3 this season and for their above average performance, they get the 6-6 Hurricanes in the Independence Bowl on Thanksgiving Day. Louisiana Tech went just 1-2 over its last three games though and I think it'll have difficulty with this team from the Power 5 Conference. Yes Louisiana Tech beat UTSA 41-27 in its finale, but in the two losses previous it scored a total of 24 points. Overall the Bulldogs average 34 PPG and allow 23.7. 

The pick: The Hurricanes lost their final 27-17 to Duke. Five of their six losses though have been by seven points or less. Overall Miami averages 27.8 PPG and it allows just 20.8. Louisiana Tech has had considerably more sucess in the Bowl Season than the Hurricanes over the last ten years, but I think the Bulldog's get overwhelmed on the defensive end from this hungry 6-6 Miami Florida team. I'm laying the points.

10* BLOWOUT on Miami Florida.

The set-up: The 7-5 BYU Cougars are in Hawaii to take on the 9-5 Warriors and in my opinion, this one has "shootout" written all over it. The Rainbow Warriors were 6-2 in Aloha Stadium this year, including victories over Arizona and Oregon State. Hawaii eventually fell 31-10 to Boise State in the Championship Game, but I think that Cole McDonald and company will bounce back here with so much time off to prepare. McDonald finished with 3,642 yards and 29 TD's this season. Overall the Warriors average 33.6 PPG, while allowing 31.7. BYU won five straight before a listless 13-3 loss at SDSU. Like Hawaii though, I think the extra time off to prepare for this one will be beneficial to the offense, which averaged 39.8 PPG during the five-game win streak. Overall the Cougars average 28 points and allow 24.4 per game. 

The pick: Note as well that BYU has seen the total go over the number in four of six on the road this year, while Hawaii has seen the total soar above the posted number in three of four home games already this season when the total in the contest is set between 61 and 70 points. I believe the only game in town tonight will feature a lot of offense, and not much defense. Play the over.

10* play on the OVER BYU/Hawaii.

The set-up: Both teams are headed to the playoffs, but each is fighting for a better spot. In a game which I see being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. Green Bay beat Minnesota 21-16 at home and I do indeed feel that another outright victory isn't out of the question here either. Green Bay beat the Bears 21-13 last weekend and with a victory here it can wrap up the division crown. Look for veteran QB Aaron Rodgers to continue his brilliant season, so far he has 24 TD's and just two INT's. Also RB Aaron Jones had two TD's last weekend. 

The pick: The Vikes have won eight of their last ten, led by the great play of QB Kirk Cousins, who has 25 TD's and only five INT's. Also note, Minnesota is now already in the playoffs, having clinched after the Rams last outright to the 49ers yesterday. Finally note that Minnesota is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 MNF contests, while GB is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records. Grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Green Bay Packers.

The set-up: Marshall finished 8-4 overall, including 2-2 in non-conference play. Its two win were over Ohio (33-31) and VMI, while it lost to Boise State (14-7) and Cincinnati (42-17.) Marshall won this bowl 38-20 last year, but I think it takes a step back here. Overall the Herd average 24.8 PPG and allow 23.1. 

The pick: UCF lost 27-24 to Cincinnati, but it finished 9-3 overall. The Knights average a whopping 43 PPG, while conceding just 22.8. Marshall has struggled in this spot for bettors as well, both over the long and short-term, going just 2-4 ATS in its last six after a win by six points or less, including only 1-2 ATS this year. Conversely, UCF has been money in the bank in this position by going 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, including 2-1 ATS this season. I think Marshall gets smoked on both sides of the ball from start to finish. Lay the points.

10* BLOWOUT on UCF.

The set-up: The Chiefs have a lot to play for, as while they've clinched the division, they're still gunning for home field advantage. The Bears are 7-7 and have fallen out of playoff contention. Is the thought of playing "spoiler" here an actual factor we can take into consideration? I don't think so. The Bears are out and now they face a non-conference power house. Yes Mitchell Trubisky has something to prove, but I don't think his slightly improved play of late is going to be enough here. 

The pick: The Chiefs have rebounded from a tough stretch and they're looking sharp on both sides of the ball, averaging 28.1 PPG, while the defense has recorded 14 INT's and 39 sacks this season. Additionally note that Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records, while KC is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite. I'm laying the points and expecting a complete lop-sided destruction.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the KC Chiefs.

The set-up: The Cards destroyed the Browns 38-24 last weekend, their first victory in months. Suffice it to say, I think they'll have a more difficult time moving the ball this afternoon in the frigid Pacific Northwest. Expect to see a heavy dose of RB Kenyan Drake again here though as last weekend he rushed for 137 yards and four TD's vs. the Browns. With San Francisco's loss to Atlanta last weekend (although it managed the slim victory over the Rams), means that Seattle controls its own destiny in the NFC West. QB Russell Wilson has been the beneficiary of a strong run game this year and I expect the home side to control the ball/clock while on offense today as well. 

The pick: It works great from a situational stand point in my opinion, but also note that the Hawks have seen the total go under the number in seven of their last ten after scoring 30 points or more in their previous contest, while the Cards have seen the total go under in four of their last five off an upset win as an underdog. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Cards/Hawks.

The set-up: UAB is 9-4 and App State is 12-1. The Mountaineers are big favorites in this one. In fact, a little too big in my estimation. App State has an explosive offense, but UAB allows only 20.8 PPG. And that's bad new for App State' QB Zac Thomas in my opinion. Thomas finished with a sharp 26:6 TD:INT, but I believe the extra time off will throw a predictable "monkey wrench" into his chemistry.

The pick: The Blazers use two QB's in Tyler Johnson II and Dylan Hopkins and they do indeed benefit from a defense which ranks 13th in the nation vs. the pass and 14th vs. the run. Also note that UAB is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five off a loss vs. a conference rival, including 2-0 ATS this season, while App State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after covering the spread in four out of its last five games. No outright, but definitely closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on UAB.

The set-up: I'm expecting a hard-fought, but ultimatley lower-scoring game between these NFC rivals on Saturday night. The 49ers have a playoff spot locked up, but they're coming off a poor perfomance/loss at home to the Falcons. LA has its back against the wall, needing to win out after it most recently got dominated on the road by the Cowboys. The strength of LA though has not been on the offensive side of the ball this season, with QB Jared Goff taking a major step back, but rather on the defensive end where the unit has allowed 17 points or fewer in six of the last eight games. San Francisco has been unbelievable this year, winning big in New Orleans, but also looking poor at other times. The defense is banged up, but I think that Jimmy Garropolo and company won't try to push the issue here, as they look to sit back and control this one in all three phases. Situationally in my opinion, it definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. 

The pick: But note as well that LA has seen the total go under the number in three of four vs. division opponents already this year, while San Francisco has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last eight following a home loss. This number is a tad high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the Rams/49ers UNDER.

The set-up: Washington is 7-5 and Boise State is 12-1. Head coach Chris Peterson has made it known that he'll be leaving Washington after this game and it's only fitting that he gets to try and beat his former team the Broncos. Washington topped WSU 31-13 in the Apple Cup, while Boise State got the better of Hawaii 31-10 in the MWC championship game. Washington is led by QB Jacob Eason, while Boise State is led by QB Jaylon Henderson. The Broncos allow 20.6 PPG, while the Huskies allow 20.4. 

The pick: I'll point out though that the Huskies have performed well in this spot for bettors, going 3-0 ATS in all non-conference games. Conversely, this is a position in which Boise State has struggled in for bettors, going just 1-2 ATS in non-conference games this season and 0-3 ATS in its last three after scoring 31 points or more in four straight games. The Huskies come from the tougher confernce and I think that Peterson will have his troops prepared to lay the hammer down. Lay the points.

8* play on Washington.

The set-up: FIU finished with a 6-6 record and finished the regular season with an OT loss to Marshall. Arkansas State finished 7-5 and closed with a loss on the road to South Alabama. Arkansas State allows 228 YPG on the ground and FIU averages 168 YPG. FIU QB James Morgan finished with 2,248 passing yards and a weak 13:3 TD:INT. Arkansas State though has a top 20 passing offense, led by freshman QB Layne Hatcher. The Panthers allow over 200 YPG rushing as well, so the Red Wolves' strong run/pass attack is going to be the difference in the end in my opinion. 

The pick: Additionally note that FIU is a terrible 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games, while Arkansas State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. I have a hard time seeing the Panthers keeping pace down the stretch vs. a Red Wolves offense which averages 36.7 PPG. Lay the points.

8* play on Arkansas State.

The set-up: Buffalo's won ten games for the first time in more than 20 years and it's headed back to the playoffs. The Patriots have also already clinched. Each team though is still jockeying for better playoff positioning. The Bills' young QB Josh Allen has made significant strides since the first time he faced New England earlier in the year and I believe he has a legitimate shot at avenging that setback. Note that when they played Tom Brady the first time, they kept the hall of fame QB in check by allowing him only 150 yards on 39 attempts. The Bills have been tremendous at home, but they come in the under radar here afte rgoing 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight away from friendly confines.

The pick: New England has an 11-3 record, but Brady looks a step behind (he's thrown for less than 190 yards in three of his past four games.) The defense has looked shaky at times over the last month as well. Additionally note that the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five in revenging a close loss by seven points or less to an opponent, while NE is just 1-5 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records. I'm grabbing the points.

10* BLOOD-BATH on Buffalo.

The set-up: This is a home game for the Owls, as this game is being played at FAU Stadium. SMU is enoying just its sixth ten win season in its 102 year history. The Mustangs won eight in a row before a blowout loss to Memphis, followed by a 35-28 setback to Navy. The Mustangs are averaging 43.2 PPG and allowing 31.8. However with the extended time off, I think that QB Shane Buechele's chemistry will be "off" to begin. FAU is stingy as well and it comes in on a six-game win streak after beating UAB 49-6 in the Conference USA Championship Game. The Owls average 2.5 takeaways per game and a +1.6 turnover margin per contest. 

The pick: Additionally note that SMU has in fact seen the total go under the number in its last five as a road favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range, while FAU has seen the total dip under in 14 of its last 20 at home, including in five of seven this season. This number is a tad high in my opinion. 

8* play on the UNDER SMU/FAU.

The set-up: Two teams that sputtered down the stretch of the regular season collide on Saturday in the Cure Bowl. The Flames are poor at stopping the run, and that's the Eagles strength. Funnily enough, Liberty's strength is its passing game, while Georgia Southern's weakness is against the pass. With a few weeks off to regroup, I think it's going to be Flames' QB Steven Calvert who shines in this one. Calvert had 3,000 passing yards, as well as a sharp 26:5 TD:INT. 

The pick: And that's bad new for an Eagles' pass defense which gave up at least 283 total yards through the air in three of their last four games. QB Shai Werts' numbers are his worst in the last three years due to significant injuries to his line as well. Finally note that Liberty is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Georgia Southern is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off a home victory, including 3-1 ATS this season. I like the Flames' arial attack to be the difference in the end. That said, let's grab the points.

8* play on Liberty.

The set-up: Last year CMU was 1-11, but this year they lost to Miami Ohio 26-24 in the MAC Championship game. The Chips were 8-5 and they enter this contest with a balanced offense, ranked 40th in the country in both passing and running. SDSU was 9-3 on the year and finished behind Hawaii in the MWC West. The Aztecs only allow 12.8 PPG, but I think the unit will take a predictable step back here after the long lay off. Clearly CMU is going to be out to push the pace as it looks to take the Aztecs out of their comfort zone. QB Quinten Dormady is a senior for the CHips and he had 2,148 passing yards with a sharp 14:6 TD:INT. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that CMU has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as an underdog this year, while SDSU has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four as a neutal field favorite of seven points or less. This number is a tad low.

10* play on CMU/SDSU OVER.

The set-up: I believe that the 7-5 Utah State Aggies will lay the hammer down on the 6-6 Kent State Golden Flashes. I think Kent State is just happy to be here, making only its third bowl appearance in program history. Aggies' QB Jordan Love will make his final appearance for his team today and I expect him to have a big game (most recently he had three TD's in his team's 38-25 win over New Mexico.) Note that according to Mel Kiper, Love is the seventh ranked QB going into the draft this summer. The Golden Flashes have QB Dustin Crum under center and he threw for 2,333 yards and 18 TD's on the year, but I believe he'll have a hard time keeping up to the Aggie's high-tempo pace with a lack of a run game. 

The pick: Addtionlly note that the Golden Flashes are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a three game SU unbeaten streak, while the Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. I'm laying the points and expecting a complete blowout.

8* play on Utah State.

The set-up: I like 7-5 Buffalo to crush 7-5 Charlotte. Buffalo comes in with considerable momentum and I think the Bulls carry that momentum over after winning five of six and three straight ot end the regular season. Charlotte on the other hand is just happy to be here in my opinion, as the 49ers make their first bowl appearance ever in their five-year history. 

The pick: Both teams average 31.5 PPG. Charlotte concedes 32.6 PPG though (which dropped to only 19 over its final five games, but I still think the 49ers will have a hard time slowing down Kyle Vantrease and the Bulls.) Additionally note that Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a favorite, while Charlotte is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games. The Bulls are ranked No. 35 in the country on defense as well. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the points.

8* play on Buffalo.

The set-up: The 6-7 Indianapolis Colts can keep their wild card hopes alive with an improbable upset win today. How will Indy pull that off? Certainly not by trying to keep pace with Drew Brees and the high-flying home side. The Colts have lost four of five, but they'll be laying everything on the line tonight in an effort to pull off the victory. The offense is still without dynamic WR T.Y. Hilton. Indy has to play to its strengths here, with plenty of running and short dump passes by Jacoby Brissett. Of course, the strength of the Colts still lies on the defensive end. 

The pick: The Saints threw everything they had at the 49ers last week, but New Orleans came up on the short end of a high-scoring shootout. New Orleans' defense was exposed by the 49ers, but clearly the unit catches a break today facing the Colts much more conservative offensive game-style. Note as well that Indy has already seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 14 vs. teams with winning records and in six of its last seven after three or more consecutive losses, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the number in five of its last six after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. This number is high.

10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Colts/Saints.

The set-up: The Bills three-game win streak ended with a 24-17 loss at home to the Ravens. Buffalo is seeking its tenth win of the year for the first time since 1999, but the Bills will have their hands full with this Steelers team which enters having won three straight. Last week the Steelers got the job done vs. the Cards by running hte ball for 141 yards by committee. Pittsburgh also held Arizona to just 240 yards of offense. The Bills love slowing things down though and wearning out teams. Buffalo only averages 21.3 PPG, but it only allows 16.3. QB Josh Allen has 17 passing TD's and eight rushing. 

The pick: Note that the Bills have seen the total dip under the number in all six games they've played in as an underdog, while Pittsburgh has een the total go under in three of four as a home favorite this season. I'm banking on a classic hard-nosed, lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under.

10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Bills/Steelers.

The set-up: The Rams are 8-5 and they enter this one having won two straight. The Cowboys have lost two straight and they're now in a tie with the Eagles for the NFC East lead at 6-7. Jared Goff has looked better for the Rams over his last two games, thanks in large part to the improved play of RB Todd Gurley. But it's now do or die for the Cowboys, who come in actually having lost seven of their last ten. 

The pick: But despite that, Dallas is still in a tie for the NFC East lead heading into Week 15 with the Eagles. I think Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliot can match pace with their counterparts today. I think Dallas has the better defense and I believe it'll be the more "desperate/hungry" side as well. Additionally note that LA is a poor 8-12 ATS in its last 20 after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games, while Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after having lost three out of its last four SU. Look for the Cowboys to finally get back on track and expect the Rams to finally take a step back.

8* SUPER SPECIAL on the Dallas Cowboys.

The set-up: Denver still has a mathematical shot at making the playoffs, but it has to win out and also get some outside help. It's obviously never going to happen, but I love playing on highly motivated teams and clearly the visiting side fits that bill here. The Chiefs on the other hand have already clinched the division, so a minor letdown here mentally is definitely in the cards as well in my opinion. Denver comes to town on a role as well after two straight wins, most recently steam-rolling the Texans 38-24 on the road. Rookie QB Drew Lock had 300 yards vs. the Texans last week and the Chiefs' secondary is a lot worse. 

The pick: Clearly it won't be a cake walk, as KC enters having won three straight. With a tough road game in Chicago next week, KC could be caught looking past its opponent this afternoon as well. Finally note that the Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while KC is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a home favorite of 7.5 to ten points. I'm banking the Broncos fighting tooth and nail and because of that, I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: For over a decade Navy domianted this series, but over the last five it's been Army that's had the decisive upper-hand. But that was then and this is now. These teams are moving in opposite directions coming into this one and I expect those trends to continue. Army finished 5-7 and it ended its campaign with a listless 52-31 road loss to Hawaii. Navy on the other hand finished 9-2 and it enters this contest on a two game win streak. 

The pick: Army averages 30.3 PPG and it allows 22.3. Navy averages 39.3 PPG and it allows 24.2. Both teams run the triple option, but Army allows 144 rushing yards per game. I think that Navy' QB Malcom Perry is going to have a big day here. Additionally note that the Midshipmen are 7-1 ATS in their last eight as a favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. teams with losing records, while Army is only 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout from start to finish.

10* SIDE WINNER on Navy.

The set-up: Eli Manning is back under center for the Giants, who enter at 2-10 and nothing to play for. Manning is purely playing for pride, but I think the future hall of famer is going to predictably struggle in this difficult road venue. The Eagles are on the ropes and need to basically "win out" the remainder of the season and get outside help to play the playoffs (5-7). Eagles' QB Carson Wentz has 20 TD's and seven INT's, but he's also been sacked 30 times. New York has 26 sacks. Philly only allows 91 rushing yards per game though, so the Giants' already one-dimensional offense is going to become even more so on the National Stage. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. 

The pick: Additionally note that New York has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Philadelphia has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 17 as a home favorite, including in two of three this season. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Giants/Eagles.

The set-up: Every season for the last decade or so, the Patriots will lose a couple of games and all of the pundits come out and say that Tom Brady has lost a step, or he doesn't have a good enough defense or enough weapons around him. New England has for the most part amassed its 10-2 record because of its hard-nosed defensive play, but a lot of that is due to the level of competition its faced. Brady and the offense have struggled a lot this season, including in last week's 28-22 loss to the Texans. The Chiefs have re-found their footing and enter having won two in a row, most recently destroying the Raiders 40-9. 

The pick: Unlike Brady, Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes continues to excel, so far he has almost 3,000 yards passing to go along with 20 TD's to just two INT's. New England's offense has failed to score more than 22 points in each of its last three games, so the revenge-minded Chiefs offense definitely catches a break in the second matchup. KC is also 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road dog, while NE is already 0-2 ATS this year in all contests when the line is set between +3 and -3. Bank on Mahomes finally getting over the hump here and for the Patriots to also finally get exposed for their ineffeciencies on both sides of the ball. That said, grab the points.

9* PLAY-BOOK on the Kansas City Chiefs.

The set-up: I have the Bills at 5.5. Whether you have 5, 5.5 or 6, I love this play. So far the Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have passed almost every test this year, but I think they're in trouble here this weekend vs. this under the radar Bills team which continues to get little respect from the oddsmakers. The Ravens have a "cream puff" at home vs. the Jets next weekend, followed by games vs. the Browns and then at home vs. the Steelers. Both teams have superb defenses, so I'm calling that area a "wash." Jackson have been phenomenal, but Bills' QB Josh Allen has gotten progressively better each week as well and he's been particularly sharp over the last month. 

The pick: The road ahead though is not quite as "easy" for the Bills, who have back-to-back road games at Pittsburgh and New England. Neither of those games are going to be "easy." This game isn't going to be "easy" either, but Buffalo clearly has to be looking at this contest as a "must win" game. In fact, I'm banking on it! Of course Jackson and company really "want" to win this one, but would anyone fault the second year pro and Baltimore for finally having a "letdown" here and looking ahead to that much more winnable game at home next week? Baltimore managed the SU win over the 49ers last weekend, but not ATS. I think it stumbles here as well (additionally note that Baltimore is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 after one more loss vs. the spread, including 1-3 ATS this season, while Buffalo is already a perfect 4-0 ATS this year as an underdog.) The bottom line is that I think the Ravens do indeed finally have their letdown, while I expect Buffalo to risk life and limb in front of the home town crowd. While the outright is possible, in the end let's grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Buffalo Bills.

The set-up: I think the high-paced, high-flying 12-0 Ohio State Buckeyes keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Ohio State has won nine of the last ten in this series and covered in eight. Wisconsin has won four straight after dropping two in a row to these very Buckeyes, and also inexplicably to Illinois. But Ohio State has overcome every challenge so far this year and now that it's gotten this far, I expect an even more focussed effort from QB Justin Fields (37 TD's and only one pick.) Keep your eyes on RB JK Dobbins as well. 

The pick: Wisconsin averages 35.8 PPG and it only allows 14.6. QB Jack Coan has 17 TD's and four INT's. The Badgers though are only 2-4 ATS in their last six as a dog and only 1-3 ATS this year off a win by ten points or more vs. a conference rival. Ohio State on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a neutral field favorite. Look for Ohio State's experience and depth to once again prove to be too much for the Badgers to handle. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Ohio State.

The set-up: Georiga is 11-1 and LSU is 12-0. Whoever wins will be off to the College Championship round. The Tigers have a dynamic QB in Heisman Joe Burrows, who has thrown for almost 2,000 yards in his last five games alone. This is the Bulldogs third straight SEC Championship Game appearance though and I believe their experience and depth will take this contest down to the wire. Georgia QB Jake Fromm has five TD passes and zero INT's in his last two SEC Champ games vs. Auburn and Alabama. Georgia's defense is conceding only ten points per game this year as well.

The pick: Ed Oregon's team has been a big surprise this year, but I think its lack of overall experience in this big situation will in fact come back to bite it here. Georgia is 3-0 ATS in its last three as a dog, while LSU is only 1-4 ATS in its last five off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival. I think the outright is possible, but in the end I'm grabbing the points.

9* PLAY-BOOK on Georgia.

The set-up: Oregon lost a game to ASU a couple of weeks ago. The Ducks likely won't be invited to the Playoff Championship with a win today, but Utah likely would. The Ducks are out to play spoiler and to pull off a big upset in the Pac 12 Championship and in a contest which I see coming down to the wire, I'm going to ultimately recommend to grab the points. Utah's only loss came against USC and since then it's been pretty much perfect, led by a tough defense. Oregon lost to Auburn in its opener and then posted nine straight wins. And with what I feel to be the best QB in the conference in Justin Hebert leading the way, I absolutely believe that the Ducks have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one (also note that the Ducks rank 10th in the nation in rushing defense.) 

The pick: Utah's been unbelievable, but it's had to "bend" and not "break" a couple of times (allowing 30 points to USC and 28 to Washington.) Additionally note that the Utes are just 1-3 ATS in their last four played on a neutral field, while the Ducks are 4-1 ATS this season following a home victory. I think that matters here as I look for Oregon to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Oregon.

The set-up: So why should we expect a "shootout" on the short week? Chicago isn't known for its offensive prowess and Dallas has been inconsistent on that side of the ball all year as well. Despite that though I think this number is low, as I expect these two still playoff hopeful sides to not sit back and wait for the other to make the first mistake. Instead, I look for each to attack from start to finish. Chicago picked up a huge win over Detroit last week and at 6-6 its stil alive in the NFC playoff race. And for Dallas, it comes in off a putrid performance at home vs. the Bills and another loss here will be a major setback. At 6-6 the Cowboys still have a one game lead in the NFC East. 

The pick: Note as well that the Cowboys have already seen the total go over the number in four of five as a road favorite this year, while the Bears have seen the total eclipse the posted number in their last three off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite. These starting QB's have something to prove and if not now...when? Look for this one to go over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Boys/Bears.

The set-up: Seattle owns an 11-5 edge the last 16 in this series, including having won five straight. Clearly Minnesota has revenge on its mind. The Vikes come out of their bye in need of a win with a difficult schedule ahead. Minnesota will look to grind this one out in my opinion, as the Hawks allow 101.5 rushing yards per game and Vikes' RB Dalvin Cook already had 1,017 rushing yards and 11 TD's on the ground, along with another 455 receiving yards. 

The pick: Seattle will have seen the 49ers lose last night, so a victory here keeps it in pace for the conference title as well. The Hawks face a difficult task vs. a Vikings' defense which concedes only 94.2 RYPG. Note that the Vikes have seen the total go under in seven of their last ten as a road dog, while the Hawks have seen it dip below the posted number in four of their last five after four or more straight SU victories. Two great offenses, but the situation and numbers both point to a lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the under.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Vikes/Hawks.

The set-up: The Texans are in a dog fight in the AFC South, while at 10-1 the Patriots are well on their way to defending their Super Bowl title once again. Houston comes in off a crucial win over the Colts and I think DeShaun Watson can put the pressure on Pats' QB Tom Brady, who has looked poor over the last month. Overall Brady has averaged only 5.1 yards per attempt passing. The Patriots are going to need Brady to step up here though, as several key players on the defensive side are dealing with a flu bug this week. 

The pick: Brady faces a Texans' secondary which has been ravaged by injury though, so this sets up well for the veteran to bounce back. Watson and the Texans though will smell the blood in the water and I expect the home side to come out firing here as well. Neither side has played to many high-scoring affairs this year, but I believe the overall situation that each finds itself in coming into this contest has this one looking like a "shootout," instead of a "chess match." Play the over.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Patriots/Texans.

The set-up: San Francisco is 10-1 and the Ravens are 9-2. Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson has been unbelievable, but I think the second year pro will have a difficult time today vs. the 49ers top ranked defense. Jimmy Garropolo and the 49ers come in off a complete game destruction of the Packers. 

The pick: The Ravens have looked fantastic, but I think they'll have a real fight on their hands here. San Francisco matches up extremely well with Baltimore and Kyle Shannahan has made all the right calls in the early going as head coach (note as well that SF is already 2-0 ATS this season as a road dog, while Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite. In a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the San Fran 49ers.

The set-up: Utah comes in off a 35-7 road win over Arizona. At 10-1, the Utes are now getting ready to play in the Pac 12 game and while I'm obviously not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for 5-6 Colorado, which enters off one of the schools biggets upsets ever in taking down Washington 20-14 as a double-digit underdog for its second win in a row. 

The pick: I think Colorado senior QB Steven Montez can keep pace with Tyler Huntley and the home side today. Utah gets caught looking past its opponent today and I look for the hungry visiting side to take advantage and post at least the solid cover with the large spread it's been afforded tonight.  

9* PLAY-BOOK on Colorado.

The set-up: BC won't be guaranteed a bowl game if it wins today, but at 6-6, it'll become "eligible." Pittsburgh is 7-4 on the year and it's already thinking about its bowl contest. Pitt comes in flat as well after its 28-0 loss to VT last weekend. The Eagles defense is admittedly terrible, but there are two key players out on the Pitt offense today, which leaves the door open for the BC defense to step up and perform in this crucial contest. Overall BC's 457.7 YPG on offense rank it 23rd in the country. 

The pick: Pitt was in the ACC Championship Game last year, but the Panthers won't be making a repeat in that contest this season. Last time out Panthers' QB Kenny Pickett posted a QB rating of 4.8. Panthers' are hurt here today with the absence of RB Todd Sibley Jr and WR Maurice French. Pitt's defense is going to be tested here today and note that the Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a losing road record. In a game which comes down to the wire, let's grab up all these points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Boston College.

The set-up: App State is 10-1. Troy is 5-6. At 6-6, the Trojans wouldn't even necessarily be guarateed a bowl spot, but with a victory over the Mountaineers as part of that resume, they'd almost assuredly "get the call." App State has won three straight, while Troy's two game win streak came to an end with a loss to Louisiana Lafayette last weekend. Troy though has covered its last two in this series as a double-digit dog and with a bowl berth on the line, I think the Trojans can keep this one competitive late. App State is getting balanced production on both sides of the ball, led by QB Zac Thomas. 

The pick: Troy has been much better at home than on the road (lost 53-3 at the Cajuns last weekend, but allowed an average of only 20 points in winning two straight previous home contests over South Alabama and Georgia Southern.) The Trojans won't be scared to throw here either, as QB Kaleb Barker has 3,300 passing yards this season with 30 TD's and nine picks. Note as well that App State is already 0-3 ATS this year off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival, while Troy is 4-1 ATS in its last five off a road loss. Expect a war unitl the end and grab the points with the Trojans.

10* BEST OF THE BEST on Troy.

The set-up: 3-8 Bowling Green meets 6-5 Buffalo with nothing on the line. Yes the Bulls could be eligible for a slightly better bowl game with a win today, but after becoming eligible last time out, a mental lapse is inevitable in my opinion. Bowling Green is just 3-8 and can't even use the role of spoiler as motivation today. Bowling Green was killed 66-24 by Ohio last time out and I have a hard time seeing it mustering that much offense this time around. Buffalo smashed Toledo 49-30 in its last game. 

The pick: The Bulls really do need one more win to solidy their positioning, but this is a contest in which it can sit back and control the tempo. Bowling Green is a run first offense and Buffalo ranks in the top ten in stopping the rush. Also note that four of Bowling Green's five games on the road this year have fallen under the number already. I expect a low-scoring defensive battle this time around.

10* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Bowling Green/Buffalo.

The set-up: Normally the Saints like to dominate teams by running them off the field with their fast paced offense, but I don't think they'll run up the score here on the short week. The Falcons have major issues across the board and New Orleans is going to be able to sit back and control this one and look for the host to make the first mistake. The Saints held on for a crucial 34-31 win over Carolina last weekend and they're in the drivers seat for the No. 2 spot in the NFC. The Falcons are out of contention and come in off a 35-22 loss to the Bucs last weekend. 

The pick: Note that the Saints have seen the total go under the number in 12 of their last 17 after a home victory, while ATL has seen the total dip below in four of five at home already this season. On the short week and on Thanksgiving night, expect these defenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.

10* play on the UNDER Saints/Falcons.

The set-up: Mississippi State is 5-6 and it needs to win this game to become eligible. Ole Miss is 4-7 and it's now out to play the role of spoiler. The Egg Bowl looks like a "shootout" out to me this year. Mississippi comes in off a game in which its defense just allowed 58 points to LSU. 

The pick: Mississippi State completely dominated this game last year, winning 35-3. This year Ole Miss is giving up nearly 300 yards per game through the air, so QB Tommy Stevens is primed for a big performance on the National stage in my opinion. Note that Ole Miss has seen the total soar over in four of five already this year after playing a game at home, while Mississippi State has seen the total eclipse the number in three of four this season following a SU victory. This number is a tad low.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Mississippi/Mississippi State.

The set-up: Dallas just lost in crushing fashion to the Patriots, while the Bills enter having won three of four. Dallas is 6-5 and Buffalo is 8-3. The Bills domianted the Broncos 20-3 last weekend. Buffalo QB Josh Allen has gotten significantly better in my opinion over the last few weeks and combined with veteran RB Frank Gore, the Bills' offense is underrated. Their defense though is ranked among the best in the league, allowing only 288.6 YPG. 

The pick: The Cowboys are loaded with talent as well and while this is definitely a huge game for the team, I think they'll be pushed to the brinking once again. Note that Buffalo is already 4-0 ATS on the road this year and 2-0 ATS as a dog, while Dallas is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after allowing 14 points or less, including only 1-2 ATS this season. Grab the points.

10* play on the Buffalo Bills.

The set-up: Chicago got the better of Detroit 23-16 last year. You'll often hear players that have to play on Thanksgiving that they "take it differently" or it means more etc. Despite their win/loss record of just 3-7, the Lions have a chance to knock the Bears out of playoff contention with a victory today. Detroit's also out to avenge a 23-16 loss last November and a 20-13 road setback in Chicago on November 10th. The Bears clearly won't be going down without a fight after they clawed their way to an ugly 19-14 win over the Giants at home last weekend. 

The pick: Whether the Lions go with Jeff Driskell or David Blough, the game-plan will be the same; throw the ball early and often. The Lions rely on their passing game to generate offense, averaging 289.5 receiving yards per game. There doesn't have to be much scoring for this total to over the number. The Bears' Trubisky has already beaten Detroit this year and I think he also pushes the pace. This one has "over" written all over it.

8* play on the OVER Bears/Lions.

The set-up: Ohio has everything to play for here at 5-6, but I look for the home side to make it tougher on the Bobcats than what this spread would suggest. The Zips don't want to go winless this year and last week they almost pulled off a massie upset, but they'd eventually fall 20-17 to Miami Ohio. Ohio is the much better team on paper, but the Zips have been playing much better of late and I like that progression (on both sides of the ball), to carry over in their final game in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: Additionally note that Ohio is a poor 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite and only 1-3 ATS in its last four off a double digit road victory. Akron on the other hand is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a cover where it last as the underdog. A great situational play in my opinion. Grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on Akron.

The set-up: The Ravens have a firm grip on the AFC North at 8-2. Baltimore comes in having won five straight, but I think it'll have its hands full with this desperate home side, which must now win tonight after both Seattle and San Francisco prevailed. The Rams made it to the Super Bowl last year, but if they don't win this game tonight, then they won't have the opportunity to try and do it again. 

The pick: LA only allows 89 rushing yards per game and the Ravens count on RB Mark Ingram to open things up for Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson. Jackson's been having a great year, but note that he's been sacked 18 times this year and LA already has 29 sacks under its belt. LA has actually won three of its last five, most recently a 17-7 victory over Chicago. Note as well that the Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last ten following a SU victory, while Baltimore is a poor 12-16 ATS in its last 28 as a favorite. In a game which comes down to the wire, let's grab the points.

10* BLOOD-BATH on the Rams.

The set-up: New England is 9-1, while the Cowboys are 6-4. This is a season-defining game for Dallas and I think it'll find a way to pull off the outright upset. New England's defense has been great, but the offense has been poor. Tom Brady looks as if he's definitely lost a step this year and facing this aggressive Cowboys' defense, I think he and his line will get exposed here. I'll also argue that the Patriots' opponents have been sub-par so far to open the season, so their defensive numbers are skewed in my opinion. 

The pick: The Dallas defense is ranked seventh in the NFL and I look for it to be a difference maker today. I also like Dak Prescott to push the pace and to get the better of Tom Brady. In my opinion, the stage is set for a big upset. 

8* play on the Cowboys on the MONEY LINE.

The set-up: The Browns faced some stiff competition over the first half of the season, but they remain in the playoff picture after last week's win over the Steelers. Cleveland will now look to take advantage of a Dolphins team which has struggled on the road this year. The Fish are 2-8 overall, most recently getting crushed 37-20 at home by the Bills. Dolphins' QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has some arm injuries coming into this one. He's been sacked 24 times this year and the Browns have posted 30 sacks this season. 

The pick: The Browns have won two in a row, and while they'll be without Myles Garrett on the defensive side of the ball, the good news is that the Browns are healthier now than they've ever been before. OBJ is primed for a big game here in my opinion, as I look for Baker Mayfield and company to push the pace from start to finish. Note as well that Miami is just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 as a road dog, while Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five off a home victory. Lay the points, expect a blowout!

8* play on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: In the past this feels like a spot in which the Raiders would classically "crap the bed." But I think this Raiders team is "different" this season. Oakland has EVERYTHING to play for here, now tied with the Chiefs for the AFC West lead after handling the Bengals last weekend. Oakland's defense has been stout and it'll be out to get after Jets' QB Sam Darnold, whose offensive line is ranked 26th in the league. RB Josh Jacobs is a question mark for Oakland, but look for QB Derek Carr to take advantage of this Jets' secondary which allows over 270 passing yards per game. 

The pick: Darnold doesn't have a lot to work with and his offensive line is atrocious. Additionally note that the Jets are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight vs. the AFC, while Oakland is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after one or more straight loss vs. the spread. No upsets here, expect a decisive win and cover.

8* play on the Raiders.

The set-up: The Steelers are coming off a loss to the Browns. Pittsburgh's season is on the line here and while the 0-10 Bengals may not win this one outright, I do think the home side catches the right team at the right time to pull out its first victory. Pittsburgh is better than Cincinnati in two of three phases, but I certainly think that its QB Mason Rudolph is a major liability. Last week Rudolph threw four INT's. Also note that Pittsburgh is dealin with injuries to JuJu Smith-Schuster and RB James Conner. And to make matters worse, the Steelers lost center Maurkice Pouncey after last week's brawl with the Browns. Pittsburgh has had to deal with plenty of off-field distractions this week and I believe all of these add up to a major "letdown" here this weekend. 

The pick: Joe Mixon and the Bengals won't be going down without a fight today. Note as well that the Bengals are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games, while the Steelers are only 3-7 ATS in their last ten as a road favorite. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Bengals.

The set-up: Washington is 6-4 and bowl eligible, while Colorado is 4-6 and desperate for a vitory here to keep its chances alive awith only two games to play. Washington has been hit or miss this year, as losses to Utah and Oregon State is expected, while a setback to the Cal is now considered a poor one. 

The pick: Colorado has some big wins over Nebraska and Arizona State, but it's also been extremely inconsistent from game to game as well. But the Buffs have been a "different" team at home, having beaten Nebraska and Stanford (and they haven't suffered a home setback by more than one score.) Also note that Colorado QB Steven Montez has a 139 passer rating at home with ten TD's and three INT's, compared to a 109.6 rating on the road with a 4:7 TD:INT. At home the Buffs are averaging 11.5 more points per game on offense (26.8 at home vs. 15.3 on the road) and allowing 8.2 fewer points per game on the defensive side. I won't call for the outright, but the stage is certainly set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado.

The set-up: Both teams are eligible for a bowl. Liberty is 6-4 and Virginia is 7-3. I'm expecting a hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring game between these two non-conference opponents, each looking to improve its bowl positioning. The Cavs won this game last year, but neither team was able to break the 400 yard barrier on the offensive side. Virginia also has to be wary here not to "look ahead" to its game vs. Virginia Tech in its regular season finale (note that three of Virginia's last five wins came by single digits.) 

The pick: Liberty QB Stephen Calvert has 23 TD's and just three INT's this season, but I think he'll have a difficult time here from this aggressive Virginia pass rush that can not afford to look past its opponent today. Note as well that Liberty has seen the total dip under the number in all four games it's played in already this year as the underdog, while Virginia has seen the total dip below in its last four after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. This total is a tad high.

10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Liberty/Virginia.

The set-up: At 4-6 and with only two games left, Colorado has to win out to become eligible. Colorado State has won three of its past four games and it enters with momentum to face a Wyoming side which started the year, but which enters having dropped three of its last five. Having already earned eligibility, the Cowboys are going to have their hands full today again in my opinion vs. this desperate visting side. The Rams lost at home to Air Force in their last game, but they've won two in a row on the road. QB Patrick O'Brien has led CSU to score at least 35 points in three of his past four games.  

The pick: The Cowboys once rosey start is firmly in the rear view mirror now. Note that Wyoming's secondary has completely fallen off the map now as it allows 281.2 yards per game through the air. Finally note that CSU is a sharp 10-2 ATS in its last 12 following a double-digit home loss. I think the outright is possible, but in the end I'll recommend grabbing the points. 

10* BLOOD-BATH on Colorado State.

The set-up: The Colts come in off a win over the Jaguars, but I think they'll struggle here vs. a Houston team which enters off a loss to the Ravens. While Indianapolis will have Jacoby Brissett under center, note that it'll be without the services of top RB Marlon Mack, who suffered a broken hand. This is a major hit to an offense which relies on a strong run game to open things up for Brissett. 

The pick: The Texans not only want to bounce back after last week's loss to the surging Ravens, but they also play with revenge here after losing to the Colts by 7 in Indianapolis earlier in the year. Houston has had plenty of difficulties over the years with the Colts and while the struggled last week, I think this one sets up well for a bounce back performance. The short week favors the home side and I'll point out that Indy is in fact just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 as an underdog and 0-2 ATS in its last two "Thursday night" games, while Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last six in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent and 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night games. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Texans.

The set-up: Georgia Tech is going to try and play the role of spoiler here, but I like the 4-6 NC State Wolfpack to get one more victory to eligiblity after tonight. NC State has lost four in a row, most recently a 34-20 setback to Louisville. Tech has lost four straight as well, most recently a 45-0 shutout loss at Virginia Tech. NC State though actually outgained Louisville 377 to 326 last week, but it was unable to convert red zone chances. But a date vs. the inept Yellow Jackets is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked finally in my opinion. 

The pick: NC State is the better team on paper and I think it'll be the much better team on the field of play as well. Finally note that Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven at home, while NC State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games vs. teams with a losing home record. For all the reasons listed above, play on NC State.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State.

The set-up: Buffalo's three-game winning run came to an end in it's 30-27 loss at Kent State last weekend. The Bulls had a 27-6 lead in that one as well with 11:18 left to play, but uncharacteristically fell apart and lost. Now at 5-5, time is running out to punch their eligibility. Toledo on the other hand gained eligibility and the lost to Northern Illinois 31-28 last weekend. Toledo started backup QB Eli Peters in that one and he's also expected to get the call here. The Rockets of course would love to improve their bowl standing, but after last week's loss, conference title contention is now definitely out of the question. Toledo is also the MACs top rushing team and its No. 1 RB Bryant Koback was taken out of the NIU game with a lower leg injury.

The pick: The Bulls suffered a rare mental lapse last week, but I think they bounce back in this "must win" scenario. Before the disastrous third quarter Buffalo held Kent State to just six points. With all of the issues and injuries Toledo is having on the offensive side of the ball, I look for the home side to take full advantage and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points.

10* MAC-SPLOSION on Buffalo.

The set-up: Northern Illinois needs to run the table to become eligible. EMU is 5-5 and needs one more win to go Bowling. The Eagles killed lowly Akron 42-14 last weekend, but I think they'll have their hands full with this no surging Huskies side which enters off an impressive 31-28 win over Toledo to keep their slim chances alive. EMU is led by QB Mike Glass III and RB Shaq Vann, while NIU leans more on its run game than passing game. The Huskies are led by QB Ross Bowers, who has seven TD's and eight INT's thus far. But NIU RB Tre Harbison is a force to be reckoned with and I think he'll be a difference maker tonight (had 158 rushing yards last weekned.) 

The pick: Eastern Michigan is also only 1-5 ATS in its last six off a win by ten points or more over a conference rival, while NIU is 5-1 ATS in its last six off an upset win as a road underdog. I thik that "home field" is significant in this matchup, so I'm laying the points.

10* MAC-DESTRUCTION on NIU.

The set-up: This game is being played in Mexico City. Both teams enter off hard-fought and very close losses. KC fell 35-32 to Tennessee, while LA lost 26-24 to the Raiders. I think another "battle" is on our hands here and in a contest which I envision coming down to the final moments, I'll grab the points. KC has lost three of its last five and I believe its ripe for the picking here. Patrick Mahomes has 18 TD's and one INT so far, but I think he'll struggle in this difficult road venue vs. this desperate Chargers team which needs to win, or be eliminated from playoff contention. 

The pick: KC is just 2-6 ATS In its last eiht after a loss by six points or less and just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 after an ATS loss, while LA is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog. While I wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

10* DESTRUCTION on the LA Chargers.

The set-up: The Bears are 4-5 and the Rams are 5-4. Each has struggled mightily this year, but both have an opportunity to get things heading in the other direction with a victory here today. It's an important game for both struggling teams and I envision this one being a wide open "shootout," rather than a low-scoring "chess match." LA had its two game win streak snapped in a 17-12 loss to the Steelers last week, while the Bears snapped a four-game slide with a 20-13 victory over the Lions. While both those games were low-scoring and while each has struggled to put points on the board, I think the stage is now set for Bears' QB Mitchell Trubisky and Rams' pivot Jared Goff, to shine. 

The pick: Chicago is getting a balance on offense now with its run game, as David Montgomery has 235 yards and three TD's over his past three weeks. Trubisky himself will benefit here from a Rams' defense which is allowing 240 yards per game through the air. The Bears are even worse against the pass though, allowing 253 yards per game through the air. Neither team is going to win this game on the ground. As stated off the top, I think the stage is now set for these two QB's to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Play the over.

10* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the Bears/Rams OVER.

The set-up: Last year the Eagles needed to run the table near the end of the season to even make the playoffs and after a terrible start this season, that's the case again in 2019/20. The Pats though come in off their bye week and ready to take out their frurstrations after falling 37-20 to the Ravens two weeks ago. The Eagles though continue to defy the odds and they enter playing their best ball of the season after two straight victories. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. 

The pick: But note that the Pats have seen the total go over in three of their last four after their bye-week as well, while Philly has seen the total soar over in three of four as an underdog already this year. When taking into account the situational and trend based factors listed above, I'm expecting this one to fly over the number soon, rather than later.

8* play on the Pats/Eagles OVER.

The set-up: The 49ers beat the Cards 28-25 back on November 1st, and then lost 27-24 to the Seahawks last weekend. San Francisco's perfect season is now firmly in the rear view mirror and clearly teams are finding ways to score on it. Arizona comes in off a 30-27 setback and Tampa Bay and while its playoff hopes are slim, clearly the team isn't throwing in the towel on the season. 

The pick: Note as well that the Cards have lost three games by six or fewer points and in their season opener against Detroit they tied. If a few plays went the other way, Arizona could have many more wins under its belt right now. Note as well that San Fran is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing records, while the Cards are 5-1 ATS their last six on the road. I think the outright win is possible as well here. That said, in what I expect to be another highly competitive affair, let's grab the points.

8* play on the Cardinals.

The set-up: Atlanta inexplicably beat the Saints 26-9 last week. QB Matt Ryan is suiting up today for the Falcons and I don't think that's going to do the offense any favors. Both teams will be fighting for a victory here, but what was most impressive last week for ATL was clearly its defensive play. 

The pick: The Panthers appeared to have gotten things figured out with rookie QB Kyle Allen, but the team has come back down to Earth of late, winning one of their last three and getting outscored 95-59 in the process. Carolina has to double down on the defensive side of the ball today and the unit does catch a break facing the Falcons "on again, off again" offense. Note that ATL has seen the total go under in 14 of its last 17 vs. teams with winning records, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in seven of its last tne vs. teams with losing records. This number is a tad high.

8* play on the Falcons/Panthers under.

The set-up: The Colts are ripe for the picking here in my opinion after their loss to Miami last week. Indy hopes to have QB Jacoby Brissett under center, but I think the uncertainty surrounding this is definitely not doing the home side any favors today. The Jags on the other hand finally welcome back Nick Foles under center and I think the Super Bowl MVP is going to be the difference here. Also note that the Jags are fresh off their bye week. From a situational stand point, there's no question this one sets up great for the outright upset. 

The pick: Additionally note that Jacksonville is already 3-1 ATS on the road this season and 7-3 ATS in its last ten off an upset loss as a favorite, while Indy is just 3-3 ATS at home and only 7-11 ATS in its last 18 after playing a game at home. The outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the points.

8* play on the Jags.

The set-up: The Broncos beat the Browns at home and then had their bye-week off to prepare for this one. Broncos' QB Brandon Allen has a golden opportunity for the rest of the season to try and get his own personal stock to rise and with nothing to lose here, I think the visitors "open up the playbook" this afternoon. 

The pick: The Vikes are known for their hard-nosed defense, but it's been the offense which is mainly responsible for Minnesota's surge over the last few weeks. Cousins most recently went for 220 yards passing and two TD's vs. the Cowboys. I think Denver pushes the pace and I expect the Vikes' progression to continue here as well. This number is just a tad low.

8* play on Broncos/Vikes OVER.

The set-up: Two of the best teams in the AFC collide in this one and while each possesses a unique and explosive signal caller under center, I believe it'll be the defensive units which become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Baltimore has a string of tough games upcoming and I think the home side gets caught looking ahead. The Texans come in out of their bye, but clearly the game plan will be to try and keep the ball out of Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson's hands as much as possible. Overall Houston allows just 21 PPG. 

The pick: The Ravens' defense is also underrated, conceding only 21 PPG themselves. Houston has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 15 after a win by 21 points or more, while Baltimore has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven off a win vs. a division rival. Expect these two hungry sides to battle to lower-scoring under once it's all said and done.

8* play on the UNDER Texans/Ravens.

The set-up: New Orleans is 7-2, but it comes in off a terrible 26-9 loss at home to The Falcons. Tampa Bay is only 3-6 and it broke a four-game slide with a 30-27 win over the Cardinals last time out. Yes the Bucs are allowing the most receiving yards in the NFL this year, but they catch Drew Brees clearly still working through some issues. I have every confidence that Brees will eventually return to his normal dominating self, but I believe he will in fact struggle again here today. Note that Tampa has the BEST rushing defense, which turns the Saints into an incredibly one-dimensional team. 

The pick: The Saints are also better against the run than pass, but after last week's poor effort, New Orleans also catches a break here facing Jameis Winston, who enters with a poor 17:14 TD:INT. Note that the Saints have seen the total go under in six of their last seven as a road favorite, while TB has seen the total dip under in three of its last four as a home dog in the 3.5 to seven points range. Expect these two struggling teams to continue to struggle with consistency and play the under.

10* play on the Saints/Bucs UNDER.

The set-up: USC is 6-4 and bowl eligible. Cal is 5-4 and in need of one more victory. If not now, when? The oddsmakers think this one will be close and so do I. The Cal QB situation got a boost from the return of Devon Modster last weekend and I expect that to pay dividends tonight. Note as well that USC comes into this one with 21 players on the injured list, with QB Kedon Slovis also listed as questionable. That means that backup QB Matt Fink will get the nod here and he's just 46 of 70 with four TD and four INT in limited time this season. 

The pick: Last week Cal's defense stepped up in the team's impressive 33-20 win over Wazzou. Cal is poised to pull off the upset here vs. this Trojans team that's down to its backup QB. Additionally note that USC is just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 on the road (including only 1-3 ATS this season), while Cal is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home underdog. Don't be shocked if Cal pulls off the outright (that said, grab the points!)

8* play on California.

The set-up: Utah is 8-1 and I think it'll get caught looking past the 4-5 UCLA Bruins. And UCLA comes in under the radar after three straight wins. The Utes have won three straight and their tough defense will be put to the test today from a Bruins' offense which has posted 35.6 PPG over its last three. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been great of late and I think that progression continues here. 

The pick: The Utes held on for a 33-28 win in Washington, but I think their concentration wanes just enough here to allow the hungry visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Bruins are 3-1 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS vs. the conference, while the Utes are just 1-4 ATS in their last five off a road victory. Look for the "hungrier" team to keep this one interesting until the final moments and grab the points.

8* play on UCLA.

The set-up: Both teams are equally as "hungry" for a victory here. Louisville is 5-4 and NC State is 4-5. NC State though has the home field advantage today and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Louisville was crushed by Miami last week, while the Wolfpack come in having lost three in a row. The Cardinals average 31.1 PPG, but they unfortunatley allow 34.1. Micale Cunningham passed for 219 yards and two touchdowns, but note that he's listed as "questionable" for this contest. 

The pick: Last week NC State was blown out at home by Clemson, but I think it'll bounce back here. Overall the Wolfpack average 23.2 PPG, while allowing 28.7. However note that NC State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a double-digit loss, while the Cardinals are a poor 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a losing record. The only loss at home for NC State this year came last week to No. 5 ranked Clemson. The Wolfpack are 4-1 at home this year; look for the record to get added to here (but grab the points in case!)

8* play on NC State.

The set-up: The 4-5 South Florida Bulls have their work cut out for them this week to upset the 8-1 Bearcats and keep their slim bowl hopes alive. The Bulls are well coached though and they have a significant home field advantage. Note as well that USF has given up only 18.3 PPG over its last three games. 

The pick: THe Bearcats rely on their strong run game, which also plays into our hands here by grabbing the significant amount of points. Additionally note that the Bearcats are a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight on the road, while USF is a perfect 3-0 ATS already this season after a SU loss. No outright, but much closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on USF.

The set-up: I recently saw on Twitter someone posting a $5 bet on Rutgers to win this game SU at 5000 to 1 odds. Clearly I'm not going to suggest the same thing. I'd say, save your money and buy a couple hot dogs instead. But that said, these Ohio State spreads are now officially out of control in my opinion. Yes Ohio State is going to win this game yes the Buckeyes will win big. However, I love Rutgers here to comfortably sneak in through the back door. Last week Ohio State smashed Maryland 73-14, but I don't see the team running up the score on the road in back-to-back weeks. 

The pick: The bad news for Rutgers? It's 0-6 in conference play. The good news? It's 2-3 at home this season. Quarterback Johnny Langan is pathetic, but the strength on offense does lie in the run game. I believe this also plays into our hands, as the home side will be dedicated to the run throughout. Additionally note that Ohio State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after a two-game home stand, while Rutgers is 3-1 ATS in its last four following its bye week. Grab all these points.

8* play on Rutgers.

The set-up:

The pick:

8* play on Ball State.

The set-up: WVU won this game by a score of 35-6 last year, it's third straight in the series. But that was then and this is now. K-State is ranked No. 24, but after becoming bowl eligible it lost to Texas 27-24 last weekend and I think it gets caught looking past the Mountaineers. WVU's bowl aspirations are firmly on the line here. The Mountaineers are desperate after losing five straight. WVU will be looking to keep this one on the ground and try to grind out a victory here vs. a K-State side which allows 172 rushing yards per game. WVU has two strong backs in Leddie Brown and Kennedy McCoy. 

The pick: The Wildcats have bigger aspirations than just finishing with six wins, but I think they get caught looking past their opponent today to their upcoming bigger contest vs. Virginia Tech. WVU is also a strong 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with winning records, while K-State is 0-3 ATS this year after a two-game road trip. Expect the home side to stumble again here and look for the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

10* play on WVU. 

The set-up: Both teams comes in off losses. Fresno State fell to Utah State and it's now 4-5, while 7-2 SDSU lost to Nevada. Last year the Bulldogs won this game by a score of 23-14. But Fresno State is running out of time and after back-to-back games in which its lost in the final seconds by FG, I think the Bulldogs finally get the job done here. Overall Fresno State averages 34.3 points behind QB Jore Renya, while allowing 32.4 PPG on the defensive side. 

The pick: SDSU only allows 14.4 PPG, but it only averages 20.8. Aztecs' QB Ryan Agnew has ten TD's and four INT's. The Aztecs are a run oriented offense, but I think they'll have a hard time keeping up with their high-flying opponent today. Additionally note that Fresno State is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 37 points or ore in its previous outing, while SDSU is 0-3 ATS in its last three after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games. Look for the Bulldogs' high-powered offense to be the difference tonight. 

10* BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on Fresno State.

The set-up: It's a big game for both teams. Cleveland picked up a win over the Bills last Sunday to keep its slim playoff hopes alive. Another victory here on Thursday night vs. a red hot Steelers team which has won four straight will be paramount in keeping that dream alive. Pittsburgh has won four straight. Both teams have struggled to put points on the board and each has been carried by its defensive play to this point. But I think the narrative on that will change tonight on the short week. 

The pick: Note as well that Pittsburgh has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six after allowing 14 points or less in its previous game (including 2-0 this year), while Cleveland has seen the total soar over in four of its last five following a home victory. So far these starting QB's have been terrible this year, but each will be given the green light to operate tonight. I think this number is just a little low.

10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Steelers/Browns.

The set-up: UNC is 4-5 and it comes out of its bye week in need of a victory to keep its bowl aspirations alive. The Panthers became bowl eligible last time out by holding on for a 20-12 win over Georgia Tech last time out and I think a predictable mental letdown is imminent here. Last year the Tar Heels won a 38-35 shootout at home in this game and I expect a similarily hard-fought and ultimately competitive battle here as well. UNC has to be feeling confident as well with QB Sam Howell, who has 26 TD passes and only five INT's. So far UNC is averaging 27.6 PPG and conceding 27.1. 

The pick: The Panthers aren't the greatest on offense, but htey make up for it on the defensive side by conceding only 20.1 PPG. I'll point out though that UNC is 5-1 ATS in its last six after allowing 37 points or more in its last game, while Pittsburgh is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite. The conditions are right for a SU upset, but in the end I'll recommend to grab the points. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on North Carolina.

The set-up: NIU is 3-6 overall and 2-3 in MAC play. It sits one game behind Toledo. The Rockets have won two in a row and they're now bowl eligible because of it. The Huskies' offense revolves around RB Tre Harbison, who has 741 rushing yards and seven TD's.  The Rockets are allowing almost 200 yards per game on the ground. 

The pick: Toldeo got a break out game from Shakif Seymour, as he'd explode for 175 yards and two TD's in the win over the Golden Flashes. I don't foresee Seymour duplicating that feat here. NIU is also 7-4 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog (including 3-1 ATS this season), while Toledo is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine off a home win vs. a conference rival (including 0-2 ATS this year.) I like NIU's run game to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries.

10* DESTRUCTION on Northern Illinois.

The set-up: The Western Michigan Broncos are 6-4 on the year after winning two straight. They're now bowl eligible after holding on for a 35-31 win at Ball State last weekend. Ohio though is just 4-5 on the year (3-2 in Conference action) and it'll be risking life and limb here to try and secure a victory with time now running out to do so. Last year the Bobcats broke a four game slide in this series with a convincing 59-14 win over the Broncos. Overall WMU averages 36 PPG and it allows 26.

The pick: Ohio averages 29 PPG and it allows 29 PPG. The Bobcats lost to division leader Miami Ohio last time out, but I think they'll take care of business here at home vs. this now contented WMU side. Note as well that WMU is a poor 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a dog (including 0-3 ATS this year), while Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with a winning record. I'm banking on the desperate home side to step up here and deliver the goods.

10* DESTRUCTION on Ohio.

The set-up: These are the top two teams in the NFC West. They're quite possibly the best two teams in the entire NFC overall as well. The 49ers are undefeated at 8-0, while Seattle is 7-2. Last week San Francisco's vaunted defense looked pretty ordinary in the 49ers closer than expected 28-25 victory in Arizona. Now the 49ers have to contend with another mobile QB, except this one is putting up MVP numbers and has a ton of experience. The Hawks aren't going to sit back and wait for San Francisco to make a mistake, they'll be going after San Fran's defense again at every opportunity. 

The pick: Wilson has 22 TD's and just one INT so far, so San Fran's defense isn't going to get too many opportunities anyways. I think from a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. Additionally note that Seattle has seen the total go over the number in interestingly nine of its last 11 after a win by six points or less, while San Fran has seen the total soar over in eight of its last ten as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Hawks/49ers.

The set-up: The Cowboys are off a 37-18 Monday night win over the Giants. Dallas' QB Dak Prescott threw for three TD's. But now the Cowboys face the red hot Vikings, led by Dalvin Cook, who had 71 yards in his team's close 26-23 loss to Kansas City. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins had 222 passing yards and three TD's in a losing cause. Overall the Vikes are No. 1 in stopping the run and they've only allowed two rushing TD's all season. 

The pick: Dallas has won two in a row, but with back-to-back tough road games in Detroit and New England upcoming, clearly this is a tough stretch for the home side. Note that Dallas WR Amari Cooper didn't practice on Thursday and he's a game time decision here. NOte as well that Minnesota is a sharp 8-2 ATS in its last ten following a SU loss (including 2-0 ATS this season,) while Dallas is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive victories. I think Minnesota's defense is not getting enough credit here. Grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Minnesota Vikings.

The set-up: Carolina is 5-3 and the Packers are 7-2. Carolina has won five of six since Cam Newton got injured and Kyle Allen took over. Panthers' RB Christian McCaffrey is having an unreal season and he led the charge in an impressive victory over the Titans last weekend. The Packers will have to keep pace with their surging visiting side and Aaron Rodgers and company certainly won't be lacking for motitavtion after laying an egg in San Diego last weekend. 

The pick: Rogers has 17 TD's and just two INT's this season. That includes having three straight games with multiple TD's and not INT's. Kyle Allen did not look good in the game on the road vs. San Francisco, and clearly Lambeau is going to be a difficult task for the rookie as well. These offensive units are "firing on all cylinders" and I expect them to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Play the over.

9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the over Panthers/Packers.

The set-up: The Cards are off a tough 28-25 home loss to the 49ers, while Tampa Bay lost a heart-braker in a 40-34 OT setback vs. the Seahawks in Seattle. While each club comes in off a high-scoring loss in its last action, I believe the stage is set for much more of a defensive affair in this one. Arizona is in third in the NFC West, but it's still won three of its last five games. The season is on the line here for the Cards essentially this weekend. Note that Cards' QB Kyler Murray has 2,229 passing yards with nine TD's and four INT's, while also posting 313 rushing yards. Also note that Murray has suffered 29 sacks. 

The pick: Tampa's lost four in a row and it hasn't won a game at home all year. Head coach Bruce Arians is an offensive minded coach and clearly he's not going to be happy coming into this one. Arians won't go down quietly though. Tampa QB Jameis Winston has 2,407 passing yards with 16 TD's and ten INT's. Winston has suffered 30 sacks this year. Look for the home side intstead to lean heavily on RB's Peyton Barber (277 yards, three TD's) and Ronald Jones Jr (381, three TD's), while on offense. Finally note that Arizona has already seen the total go under the number in three of its four games on the road this year, while TB has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten as a home favorite. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Cards/Bucs.

The set-up: Clearly I'm not calling for the outright upset here, but NC State can't afford to take the foot off the gas despite defeat being inevitable here. The Wolfpack are 4-4 and while this game is a "write off" as far as conceivably pulling off a SU victory, I do think it'll put up more than enough of a fight to easily get the job done with the ample points they've been afforded in this matchup. Clemson most recently annihilated the Wofford Terriers 59-14. 

The pick: But the Wolfpack come in hungry to atone for a 44-10 loss to Wake Forest in their most recent action. Both of NC State's wins over its last five games have come at home. The Wolfpack are also 25-10 ATS in their last 35 after posting less than 275 total yards in their past contest. Expect this one to be much closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

8* play on NC State.

The set-up: Notre Dame just became eligible after its 21-20 win over Virginia Tech last weekend and I expect a bit of a letdown here. Duke is 4-4 and it's lost three of its last four. Clearly the Blue Devils will be risking life and limb here to pull off the upset with just a handful of games left. These are in fact two evenly matched sides, so in a contest which I think'll be decided late, I'm going to grab the handful of points. Note that the Irish have lost two of three on the road already this year and their one win over Louisville was hardly impressive.

The pick: Duke returns home after two straight on the road and it's also had its bye week off to prepare for this one. From a situational stand point, this one sets up beautifully for the home side. Additionally note that the Irish are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six on the road, while the Blue Devils are 8-1 ATS in their last nine following their bye week. Duke destroyed the Hokies by 35 earlier in the year, so the outright upset is in fact possible here as well. That said, I'm grabbing the points in the end.

10* play on Duke.

The set-up: UConn is going to lose this game badly, but I think it'll put up enough of a fight vs. a Bearcats team that's won six in a row and is already eligible. The Huskies come in off a 56-10 loss to Navy, but I don't think the home side will try to the score of this one up. QB Jack Zergiotis went 16 for 34, for 205 yards, one touchdown, and two INT's.

The pick: Cincinnati is rolling, but it has to be somewhat concerned after last week's 46-43 home win over ECU. Quarterback Desmond Ridder went 12 for 24, for 161 yards, one touchdown, and two INT's. Additionally note that the Huskies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after a loss by 35 points or more, while Cincinnati is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a win vs. a conference rival. After last week's "close call," I'm expecting the Bearcats to play a bit more conservatively in this game which they know they can control from the moment it starts. Grab the points.

8* play on Connnecticut.