The set-up: I got down early and have an unfavorable line, as shortly after taking Cleveland, it was announced that few players, including its head coach, had COVID. The bulk of Cleveland's talent will be on the field of play and clearly the Browns will be out for an outright upset here. These two teams know each other intimately. The Steelers stumbled down the stretch, but managed to win in Week 17. Pittsburgh has a couple COVID issues as well. 

The pick: The Browns have an offense which can keep pace with any team in the league. Cleveland's defense is also underrated in my opinion. I'm expect this one to come down to whichever of these division rivals has its hands on the ball last, so in that scenario, I'm definitely grabbing up the points!

This is a 9* BLOOD-BATH on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Chicago got crushed 35-16 in its regular season finale by Green Bay. The Bears only averaged 23.3 PPG, while conceding just 23.1. Chicago did better than most expected, but I think it'll struggle to score in this difficult road venue and against this vastly improved Saints' defense. 

The pick: New Orleans averaged 30 PPG, while allowing just 21.1. This is one of the better defenses that the Saints have gone up against this year and when they won in Chicago earlier in the season, it was by a score of 26-23 in OT. I look for New Orleans to masterfully control this contest and the clock and I expect this one to fall "under" once it's all said and done.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Bears/Saints.

The set-up: Baltimore is out to get revenege here against a team that it's had difficulties with over the last few years. The Titans upset the 14-1 Ravens in last year's playoffs 28-12. I'm having a hard time getting a firm read on a side in this one, but all signs point to this one being more of a "chess match," in my opinion, rather than a "shootout." And that's because I expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from each side while on offense today. 

The pick: These team's also faced off back on November 22nd and Tennessee managed a 30-24 victory, but that came in overtime. These are admittedly a couple of the highest-scoring teams in the league, but I'll also point out that Baltimore has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 road games in trying to revenge an OT home loss in which it allowed 30 or more points in. This number is a little high in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Ravens/Titans.

The set-up: Tampa Bay has a great defense and it's offense is dynamic and experienced as well. The issue for Bruce Arians at times is making all those pieces work together at the same time. Washington finished the regular season 7-9, but it closed the regular season by going 4-1. The success of Tampa Bay though will 100% come down to how well Tom Brady does against Washington's stiff defensive front. 

The pick: Tampa has many injured as well, as note that questionable for Saturday are Carlton Davies, LeSean McCoy and Jason Pierre-Paul. Mike Evans is listed as probable. Cornerback Carlton Davis, linebacker Devin White, and defensive tackle Jeremiah Ledbetter are all out. I can't see Tampa holding onto a big lead, or running up the score if it has a lead late. I'm banking on the home side doing enough to earn a comfortable cover in this one. Grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTROYER on the Washington Football Team.

The set-up: These teams split their regular season games, with LA winning 23-16, and the Hawks reciprocating at home in a 20-9 win in the regular season finale. Interestingly, in both games the Rams won the time of possession. The Rams have the playoff defense to keep this one close late, conceding only 18.5 PPG. Jared Goff has the ability to make plays and this Rams' run game can eat up clock as well. 

The pick: Seattle has one advantage here, Russell Wilson. Granted, that's a big advantage, but I think LA's pass rush is formidable enough to keep him in check like when these team's met the firs time (really, Wilson was pretty much contained in Week 17 as well.) I think this one comes down to the wire, so I'm grabbing the points.

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the LA Rams.

The set-up: The Colts have the offense and the defense to hang with Buffalo. The Bills weakness is their ground game. Their defense wasn't great all year, but it did well down the stretch of the regular season. The Colts finished second in the NFL in stopping the run, so the task for the visiting side will be to get to Josh Allen, who is admittedly having a great year. 

The pick: The Bills weakness defensively was stopping the run, so expect to see a heavy-dose of Colts' RB Jonathan Taylor, who is as versatile running the ball, as he is catching it. I think experience does matter at this point, so Rivers has a small advantage in that department. I think this one comes right down to the wire and therefore, I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Indianapolis Colts.

The set-up: New Orleans is the No. 2 seed in the NFC, one game behind Green Bay, who holds the tie-breaker after beating the Saints earlier in the year. New Orleans is tied with Seattle at 11-4 and it holds the tiebreaker over the Hawks. Carolina won't be in the playoffs, as it's 5-10. The Panthers though relished the role of playing spoiler last week, snapping a three-game slide with a competitive 20-13 win over Washington. 

The pick: Teddy Bridgewater has one last chance to impress today for the Panthers and he'll try to deal a blow to the Saints playoff positioning and take advantage of a team which will be without its entire starting RB group. I think New Orleans gets caught flat-footed here and I like the home side to deliver. The outright is possible, but grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Carolina Panthers.

The set-up: A&M averages 31.67 PPG and it allows 21.1. UNC averages 43.0 PPG, while allowing 28.36. Both teams are dealing with injury issues and with players opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft, but I still think that Texas A&M is a bit of a fraud. The SEC overall had a down year and the Aggies numbers are skewed a bit in my opinion. UNC's offense is potent and it's faced some of the best defenses around. 

The pick: A&M is good, but not good enough to be the fifth ranked team in the nation. I'll point out as well that UNC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as an underdog in the 7 to 9.5 points range. Look for these two hungry teams to battle tooth and nail until the final moments and make sure to grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on North Carolina.

The set-up: NC State won each of its last four games, including over Florida State, Liberty, Syracuse and Georgia Tech. Kentucky on the other hand lost four of its last five. I like Bailey Hockman in this matchup, as Kentucky's secondary and defense overall is banged up. 

The pick: NC State is also 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with losing records and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 bowl games. The Wildcats only scored an average of 21.7 PPG this year and I think they'll have trouble keeping pace down the stretch. Grab the points.

This is a 9* PLAY-BOOK on NC State.

The set-up: This is the second game of the College Football Playoff Semifinal. Clemson has faced the 36th toughest schedule and Ohio State has faced the 67th. Ohio State beat Northwestern 22-10 to win the Big Ten Championship, while Clemson won the ACC crown with a 34-10 win over Notre Dame. This game features two of the best QB's in the nation in Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. The Buckeyes average 42.5 PPG, and they concede 21, while Clemson averages 44.9 PPG, while allowing 17.5. 

The pick: Clemson though is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five after postin more than 450 total yards in its previous game, while Ohio State is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 as an underdog. This is the first non-conferece game for each team and I think that Fields has the offense to keep this one close and competitive until the final moments. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State.

The set-up: Both teams come in having played to many "unders" this year. Ball State has seen the total go under in four of its last five, including two straight, while San Jose State has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of seven this year, including in its last five straight. These two non-conference opponents get ready to battle in the Arizona Bowl on Thursday afternoon and in my opinion, these trends of lower-scoring games is going to end, as I look for these two non conference opponents to open up the playbook and air this one out. 

The pick: Ball State averages 34.3 PPG, which ranks 26th in the nation, while the Spartans allow just 17.86 PPG, ranked 13th. San Jose State has faced some suspect competition this year though to pad those stats. Spartans' QB Nick Starkel has 16 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions. San Jose State's offense averages 30.9 PPG, so expect SJSU to keep pace with the high-flying Cardinals as well. This one has "over" written all over it.

This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Ball State/San Jose State.

The set-up: The Badgers snapped a three-game slide with a 20-17 win over Minnesota in their finale and I think they're going to find a way to get the job done here as well. The Demon Deacons enter having lost back-to-back games, including a humbling 45-21 loss to Louisville as one point favorites last time out. Wake has a good offense, which averaged 37 PPG, but it was atrocious defensively, allowing 31.6. Sam Hartman was a bright spot for the Wake, finishing with 1,906 passing yards, ten TD's and just one INT. 

The pick: Wisconsin only averaged 22.3 PPG, but it made up for it on the other end by playing "lights out" defense, conceding just 15.7 PPG this year. Graham Mertz finished with eight TD's and five interceptions this season, but note that the Badgers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after allowing 18 points or less in a SU victory in their last outing. I think Wisconsin effectively slows down Wake and I look for Mertz to take advantage of this extremely bad Wake secondary. Lay the points!

This is a 10* play on Wisconsin.

The set-up: Oklahoma State was 7-3 in Big 12 play. The Cowboys alternated wins and losses over the final month. Miami was 8-2 overall. The Hurricanes were on a five-game win streak before a 62-26 loss to UNC in their last game. The Cowboys have a strong run game, but Miami's rush defense is decent. Overall Oklahoma State averages 29.5 PPG, while allowing 21.9. QB Spencer Sanders though heads into this game without the services of top RB Chuba Hubbard. 

The pick: Miami averaged 34 PPG. QB D'Eriq King had 2,573 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Hurricanes allowed 26.0 PPG and I'd argue that their schedule was much more difficult than they Cowboys. With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are very evenly matched. While I respect the OK State rushing game, I think Miami's big line will contain that aspect and turn the Cowboys one-dimensional. I like King to post a big game here as well. I'm on the Hurricanes.

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Miami.

The set-up: The Patriots are eliminated. Cam Newton is going to be the only motivated player on the field for New England today. The Patriots have nothing to play for over the last two games, and they can't even really play spoiler here, as Buffalo has already clinched. Instead, I give the Bills the huge edge in being the more "motivated" team in this matchup. Buffalo won the first matchup and after being the "red headed step-child" of the division for so long, and after suffering so many beatdowns at the hands of the Pats over the years, I look for this visiting organization to lay down a can of whoop ass that none of us have witnessed in quite a while. Buffalo is simply the better team in every respect and I don't see it having any sort of letdown in enemy territory today. 

The pick: It's interesting to note as well that New England is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games played in the month of December, while Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. With a chance to humiliate the Patriots on their home field, I look for the Bills to do just that!

This is a 10* AFC EAST BEST OF THE BEST on the Buffalo Bills.

The set-up: The first game between these teams went well "under" the number in the Eagles' 23-9 home victory. Ben DiNiucci was under center for Dallas in that one, but Andy Dalton will be directing the Cowboys tonight. Philly has gotten a spark from rookie QB Jalen Hurts, and while many may think this'll be a classic "shootout," I expect this instead to be a very tight, lower-scoring battle. Philly's defense is definitely superior, but Dallas has come a long way in that department over the last three weeks. I expect each offense to be committed to the run throughout as well. If this was Week 10, I'd expect more of a shootout, but in this crucial end of season contest, this one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than "offensive fireworks."

The pick: From a trend-based standpoint it sets up well for a lower-scoring contest, as note that Philly has seen the total go "under" in four of its last six on the road. Also note that six of these team's last eight in the series have fallen below the posted number as well. For all the reasons listed above, look for this one to fall "under" the posted number once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Eagles/Cowboys.

The set-up: Baltimore has a "cream puff" final regular season game at Cincinnati and I think it gets caught looking ahead to that contest and takes the foot off the gas in the second half of this game. The Giants on the other hand come in absolutely desperate, needing a win or they'll be eliminated from contention. Last week they lost by 14 points to the Browns. QB Daniel Jones is expected to return. 

The pick: Baltimore crushed Jacksonville 40-14 last weekend. The Ravens are 9-4 and are back on track, but consistency has plagued LaMar Jackson and company all season long. If the Ravens have a lead in the second half, there's no need for them to run up this score, instead they'll be trying to avoid mistakes and injuries and kill the clock. New York will be aiming for the end zone on every drive and because of that, I expect this game to be much closer than what this spread would suggest.

This is a 9* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the New York Giants.

The set-up: Will Kansas City win this game? Of course. Can Atlanta make it interesting? I don't think it'll even bother here. The big question though is, will the Chiefs run up this score in the second half if they come out of the break with a lead? With a home game against already eliminated LA Chargers to end the season, there's no reason at all for the Chiefs to run up this score. KC's entire game plan will be to go up early, and then to control the clock, avoid injuries and get ready to finish off this strange season. Julio Jones is done for the year for ATL, and I just can't see at all where any sort of motivation will be coming from this "dome" team today. Situationally, this one sets up great as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that the "under" has hit in four of ATL's last five on the road as well. KC's defense is underrated and I think it'll grab the main headline in tomorrow's KC summaries. This number is a tad high.

This is an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Falcons/Chiefs.

The set-up: I'm primarily a situational handicapper and I think this one sets up well for the home side to pull off the minor upset at home this weekend. The Raiders are in "do or die" mode, as a loss here will eliminate them from contention. Miami also needs victories to keep its playoff hopes alive, but I think that's asking a lot of this young team on the road today, especially with a rookie QB. Derek Carr and the Raiders have a capable offense and I expect to see Gruden have his team prepared today. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that Las Vegas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games as an underdog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range. I like the desperate home side to dig deep and deliver on Saturday night.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Las Vegas Raiders.

The set-up: WKU has one of the worst offenses in all of the FBS and the total has gone "under" in four of its last five overall. Note that ten of WKU's 11 games this year have had a total of 56 or fewer points scored. On the flip-side though, WKU has played pretty good defensively down the stretch, as it's conceded only 14.3 PPG over its last four.

The pick: Georgia State has given up an average of only 18.3 PPG over its last three games, so these are two teams which come in firing on all cylinders on the defensive side of the ball. With so much time off in between games, I believe these offenses suffer and I look for these defensive units to become the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is a tad high.

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER WKU/Georgia State.

The set-up: The Bucs are still in contention for a playoff spot, but they haven't clinched yet. Tampa is dealing with injury issues right now, but with a Bears loss this weekend, the Bucs will clinch. The only motivation that Detroit has today is try and play spoiler for Tampa here, as it was eliminated officially from contention last weekend. And frankly, the thought of disturbing the Bucs playoff chances isn't going to be any sort of motivating factor whatsoever for this Lions team, who I think will quickly throw in the white towel after the first quarter. 

The pick: The Bucs are one of the better defensive clubs, allowing just 22.9 PPG, No. 1 against the run by allowing just 77.8 PPG. The Lions are a throw-first team anyways, but it makes their already one-dimensional offense, even more so. I think Tampa goes up early, but then runs this clock out as it tries to avoid any more injuries. This number is a tad high.

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bucs/Lions.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The Vikes need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive after a 33-27 loss to the Bears last Sunday. Clearly the last thing that the Vikings want to do is try to turn this into a track meet with the Saints, instead they'll be leaning heavily on RB Dalvin Cook from start to finish. The Vikes have lost two in a row and they're basically eliminated already, as they'll have to win their last two games and get plenty of outside help. One game at a time though. Kirk Cousins was decent this year with 29 TD's and 13 INT's, but it was Cook who led the league in rushing. 

The pick: Minnesota is poor defensively and the the Saints are one of the best on the offensive side of the ball, but I look for the Saints to also lean heavily on their run game today as they try to break a three-game slide. Brees returned from COVID in last week's 32-29 loss to the Chiefs and while New Orleans was the first team to clinch a playoff spot, it still has a chance to lock up the NFC South. I think Alvin Kamara will play a big part in the home side's offense today. The big difference this year though for New Orleans has been its defensive play, as outside of the Chiefs loss, the Saints had been fantastic over the previous five games (21.2 PPG conceded on average.) Look for both teams to run the ball first and then expect this total to indeed stay under once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* TOTAL GRINCH-BUSTER on the UNDER Vikes/Saints.

The set-up: This game is being played in Frisco Texas due to COVID restrictions. Both teams are defensively challenged and I expect a shootout from start to finish. The Warriors finished 4-4, while Houston was 3-4. The Cougars have plenty of offensive talent which I expect to run up this score. Hawaii won't have the luxury to sit back and wait for Houston to make a mistake. The Warriors average 26 points per game, but their passing attack is ranked a respectable 49th with 243.4 yards per game. Hawaii is going to have to put the foot on the gas throughout as well, as note that it's defense was terrible, allowing 29.3 PPG. 

The pick: Houston's defense is porous as well. The Cougars have allowed 19 touchdowns to opponents this year in just 29 red zone trips. Note as well that defensive star Payton Turner (who finished with 17 tackles and five sacks this year), has opted out of playing in this game. Clayton Tune likes to throw the ball, he averages 261.7 passing yards per game. The lowest point total that Houston gave up this season was 21. Suffice it to say, I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later!

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Hawaii/Houston.

The set-up: Louisiana Tech receives the bowl bid despite the 4-4 record. LA Tech has struggled thoughout the season on the offensive side of the ball, averaging just 325.1 YPG on the ground. LA Tech was poor defensively as well, conceding 34.3 PPG. 

The pick: Georgia Southern doesn't score a lot either, averaging just 26.3 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing just 22.3. Note as well that the Georgia Southern offense will be without both No. 1 and No. 2 QB's, as Shai Werts and backup Justin Tomlin are out for this one. LA Tech struggles at the best of times to move the ball and now they face one of the best defenses they've seen all year. Expect a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring New Orleans Bowl once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* play on the UNDER Georgia Southern/Louisiana Tech.

The set-up: Tulane likes to run the ball. Nevada likes to throw the ball. Tulane was poor defensively and Nevada was in the middle of the pack. The Green Wave are led by their two RB's in Stephon Huderson and Cameron Carroll. QB Mike Pratt had a sharp 18:5 TD:INT this year. Overall Tulane averages 35.4 PPG. 

The pick: Nevada and Carson Strong average 29.9 PPG. The Wolfpack won their first five games and then faltered down the stretch, losing their last two. This is a big opportunity to end the season on a high note and against a secondary which was terrible against the pass. Note that Strong leads a passing attack which ranks tenth in the country. I believe each offense will move the chains efficiently and I expec this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Tulane/Nevada.

The set-up: Pittsburgh's suddenly lost two in a row and the hapless 2-10-1 Bengals would love nothing more than to kick this division rival while it's down. Especially on National television. The Steelers most recently fell 26-15 to Buffalo, while the Bengals lost 30-7 to the Cowboys. When these teams played on November 15th, the Steelers scored the 36-10 win and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Pittsburgh is averaging 26.9 PPG, and the Bengals are allowing 26.0 on average. 

The pick: Neither team has played to many "overs," this year, but the circumstances each side finds itself in definitely lends itself to more of a "shootout" than a "chess match." Also note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after back-to-back SU losses, while Cincinnati has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after scoring seven or less points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. This number is indeed a tad low, the play is the "over."

This is a 10* DIVISIONAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Steelers/Bengals.

The set-up: App State has closed out each of the last five years with a Bowl win and it's heavily favored to do so again on Monday afternoon. The Mountaineers finished 8-3 this season after a 34-26 win over Georgia Southern last week. UNT is 4-5, most recently entering off a 45-43 shootout victory over UTEP on Friday. While each team just finished playing to a higher-scoring victory, I think this Bowl contest at a weird time of the day and with little time to prepare, definitely sets up as a lower-scoring battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. App State averages 31.8 PPG and it allows just 19.3. UNT averaged 35.1 PPG, while allowing 41.3. 

The pick: The Mountaineers are in no fear of losing this game outright and I don't expect them to run up the score either. App State is going to run the ball and control the clock as it looks to close out this difficult campaign with one more victory. I think UNT will struggle to move the ball in the second half of this game and that'll help in contributing to push this total "under" once it's all said and done.

This is a 10* play on the UNDER App State/UNT.

The set-up: Are the Rams the better team? Of course. Is this a trap game for the home side? I definitely think that's the case as well. The Jets are 0-13. The odds that they'll go 0-16 are greater than if they'll go 1-16. Do you think New York could possibly be happy at this point? Yes, the Jets are planning for next year, but no team wants to go winless. The Rams on the other hand have a game at Seattle next weekend, followed by a home matchup vs. the Cardinals to end the regular season. In my opinion, this is definitely a "trap" for the home side and I think the Rams will fall right into it.

The pick: Additionally note that the Rams are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after holding their previous opponent to three or less points in a SU/ATS victory. There's no need for LA to run up the score in the second half of this contest whatsoever. Instead, if it does have a lead, it'll look to kill clock, limit turnover and injuries and get ready to face the Seahawks. No outright, but closer than expected. 

This is a 9* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Jets.

The set-up: These teams are moving in opposite directions. San Francisco has dropped two straight and with a loss today, it'll be officially eliminated from contention. It's been an uphill battle for the 49ers this year, who come to town without their starting QB and several other key players on both sides of the ball. With the rest of the division healthy and playing well, I think the 49ers throw in the white flag here early. 

The pick: Dallas snapped a two-game slide with a 30-7 win over the Bengalas last weekend. The Cowboys are in such a weak division, that if they win today and the other three teams lose, then they're going to be back in the drivers seat (and that's a very real possibility, as Philly is in Arizona, the Giants are at home to a smoking hot Browns team, and Washington is at home to the Seahawks without Alex Smith under center. The Cowboys have plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball and backup Andy Dalton finally seems to be getting up to speed. The Dallas defense looked better last weekend too and now it faces another offense with its back up QB under center. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion, but may as well grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Cowboys.

The set-up: Miami is the No. 7 seed. Buffalo has now clinched the AFC East, but the Fish still have plenty to play for here. Most recently Miami fell 33-27 to Kansas City. New England looks to regroup after falling 24-3 to the Rams last Thursday, it's now 6-7 overall. The Patriots have been hit or miss all year and last week they were definitely a "miss." New England will now need to run the table, while also getting outside help if it has any shot at making the playoffs. While the last five NE games have gone "under" the number, I expect today's contest to finally sneak above, as both teams are hungry for a victory here and I expect that determination to translate into production on the field. 

The pick: Both Tua and Newton have something to prove as well. Each QB is playing for a position on a team for next season, so it's a "game within a game" here. Also note that the Patriots have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last 11 road games after playing to three or more straight "unders." This number is a tad low.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Pats/Fish.

The set-up: Alabama is really good. Great offense, great defense and it's well coached as well. Florida also has a really good offense and a decent defense. Florida lost to LSU last time out and even with a win today, it wouldn't make the College Football Playoff. But the Gators would love nothing more than to hand the Tide their first loss of the season. Despite the loss to LSU last weekend, QB Kyle Trask still had 474 yards passing and two TD's. The Bama defense has been sharp of late, but the unit has yet to see an offense quite as dynamic as this.

The pick: Mac Jones is in line for the Heisman now, but for a few weeks Trask was in the conversation as well. With one last chance to impress, I like Trask to help his team keep this one interesting late. Note as well that Florida is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing 35 points or more in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. As I mentioned off the top, I don't predict an outright upset, but everything does point to this one being much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

This is a 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Florida.

The set-up: Buffalo comes in off three straight wins, but after beating Pittsburgh 26-15 at home last weekend, and with a game at New England on the 28th up next, before its season finale against Miami, I do believe this sets up as a bit of a trap for the visiting side. 

The pick: The Broncos won't be in the post-season, but they're playing strnog down the stretch. Last weekend they posted a 32-27 road win at Carolina, proving that they're trying to finish off on a positive note. Denver has the ability to affect the playoffs and I think that's a big motivational factor. It also plays with revenge after losing this game 20-2 last season. Buffalo has not played well defensively, allowing 27.6 PPG and I think it'll struggle to contain this hungry home side. The outright is possible, but in the end grab the points.

This is a 10* SUPER-SPECIAL on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: Both teams opened up the season with skay starts, but each closed strong. Iowa State scored a win over Oklahoma early and it'll look to duplicate that performance here in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma's defense has come a long way since, but so too has its offense behind Spencer Rattler, who took a few games to really get going. Oklahoma closed out the regular season with six straight wins, all of the blowout variety. The Sooners have plenty of motivation to run up the score today. 

The pick: Iowa State enters off a 42-6 beatdown of WVU last time out and I like it to build off that impressive performance. Brock Purdy has regressed slightly this season from last, but with these two competent quarterbacks playing for a chance for the title, this one has "shootout" written all over it in my opinion. And that's my read on this one, I look for these two QB's to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries.

This is a 9* TOTAL on the OVER Oklahoma/Iowa State.

The set-up: This game reminds me a lot of the Cowboys at the Bengals last weekend. Both teams had been ravaged by injury and on and off field issues. Also plenty of COVID related problems as well. I had a play on the Cowboys, as I reckoned they were the much "hungrier" team. I also felt that despite their win/loss record, the Cowboys absolutely had the better talent on the field of play as well in that matchup. And that's almost exactly the case here as well, except I'd argue that the Raiders look a lot better than the Cowboys through all three phases this year and their 7-6 record proves that. The Raiders season is on the line here. This is a "must win" game for Las Vegas, easily it's most important contest of the enitre season. Playing on the short week at home also benefits the Raiders situationally tonight. 

The pick: LA has nothing to play for here and I expect it to throw in the white towel early (note that it's just 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall.) The public money is all over Las Vegas and this time, I think they're right. Lay the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Las Vegas Raiders.

The set-up: This is an important divisional matchup. Baltimore crushed the Browns 38-6 at home in Week 1 and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Cleveland is coming off its fourth straight win, a 41-35 victory over Tennessee. Baltimore won 34-17 over the Cowboys. Baltimore averages 26.3 PPG and it allows just 19.3. The Browns averages 25.5 PPG, and they allow 26.8. Both teams can score, as they combine for 52 points, a figure which would push this total "over" the posted number. Both teams are decent defensively, as they combined to allow just 44 PPG. With the season winding down and so much on the line though, this one has the feel of a playoff game to me, where every inch is going to be contested. Where the game is decided in the trenches and by field position. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a run and gun "shootout." 

The pick: The numbers/trends support this theory as well, as note that the total has gone "under" in six of the Ravens last eight on the road. It's also gone "under" in six of these teams last eight vs. each other. A great time to pull the trigger on this situational totals play. This  number is a tad high in my opinion.

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Ravens/Browns.

The set-up: The Saints have become the first team to qualify for the Playoffs this year afrer their 21-16 win over Atlanta last weekend and I think a predictable letdown is finally in order here. Drew Brees has been sidelined with injury the last two weeks, but Taysom Hill has filled in pretty well in his place. New Orleans is averaging 28.9 PPG and it's allowing just 20.1, but all signs point to this team finally taking the foot off the gas in my opinion, especially with a big game at home against the Chiefs next weekend, one which would likely see Brees return to action. 

The pick: Philadelphia is in must win mode though at 3-8-1, as another loss would see it drop out of playoff contention. The Giants lead the weak NFC East, but Philadelphia still has a mathematical shot at winning the division, it just needs to win some games. And one game at a time. Jalen Hurts is under center now for the Eagles and he can't be any worse than Carson Wentz. I think the change will electrify this still talented Eagles offense. Philly's offense needs a jumpstart, as the defense has allowed 25.6 PPG. Look for the more motivated home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Eagles.

The set-up: New Orleans would love to keep the win streak going, but one has to wonder if this is a trap game or not?! New Orleans is the first team to qualify for the playoffs after last weekends win and it's won its last two games without Drew Brees under center. This also sets up as a "look-ahead" spot as the Saints welcome the defending champion Chiefs next weekend. New Orleans has been superb on both sides of the ball, but Philadelphia is coming to play a full quarters today as it is in a "must win" situation. Even at 3-8-1 the Eagles are still in contention for the Division title, but they can't afford any more losses. In fact, things are so dire that they've decided to insert rookie Jalen Hurts into the line-up in hopes of jump-starting this offense. Hurts has weapons around him and I like the rookie to do just that. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Saints have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after three or more straight SU victories in a row, while the Eagles have seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of their last 14 after two or more SU losses. From a situational standpoint, this one definitely screams "over!" 

This is a 10* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Saints/Eagles.

The set-up: Clearly this is a big game for both teams. The Cards are 6-6 and they'd be out of the playoff picture if the playoffs began today, while at 5-7 the Giants would be in. New York has won four straight somehow, but I think a lapse is finally in order here vs. this now desperate Cardinals team which MUST WIN today to keep their playoff hopes alive. I use motivation alot as a way to handicap games and in my opinion, this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side, while Arizona enters in a "must win" situation. 

The pick: Note further that the Giants are still just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 at home, while the Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games after a three games are longer SU losing streak. Arizona still has one of the best offenses in the league and I have a hard time seeing New York keeping pace. I'm laying the points.

This is a 9* PLAY-BOOK on the Cardinals.

The set-up: No upsets here, as I like the App State Mountaineers to lay the hammer down from start to finish. Neither team will be in the Championship game, but it's still an important contest to determine the second-place finisher in the division. App State lost 24-21 to Louisiana last time out. In that contest senior QB Zac Thomas had the absolute worst game of his career, going 10 of 21 for 92 yards and two interceptions. Suffice it to say, I don't expect that lightning bolt of futility to strike twice. Georgia Southern enters off a 20-3 win over FAU, using their backup QB in Justin Tomlin, who was 3 of 12 for 70 yards, while also rushing for an additional 78. Keep your eyes on Camerun Peoples for App State, as he has 738 rushing yards and seven TD's so far this season.

The pick: Georgia Southern is stout against the run, but with its attention on Peoples, I'm predicting a massive bounce-back game here for the highly motivated Thomas. The QB issues are Georgia Southern aren't trivial. Getting by FAU is one thing, but trying to keep up with this pissed off Mountaineers side is quite another. I'm laying the points in this great situational spot.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on App State.

The set-up: Utah would love to hand Colorado its first and only loss of the season, as this is the final regular season game for both teams. Colorado beat Arizona 24-13 on Saturday, as Jarek Broussard rushed for a career-high 301 yards. The Utes won their first game of the season last time out, beating Oregon State 30-24. RB Tyler Jordan had 167 rushing yards and a TD in the victory. The Buffs strength on offense is their run game, but the Utes strength on defense is stopping the run, allowing just 104.7 YPG on the ground. 

The pick: Utah's defense has also allowed just 11 first downs in 38 third-down attempts this year. Utah made big strides last week holding on for its first victory and I think it has the defense to slow the Buffs' offense down, making it much more one dimensional. And that's it in a nutshell. The outright win is obviously possible, but let's grab the points.

This is a 10* PAC 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah.

The set-up: I think this is going to be a very competitive, higher-scoring affair. The Patriots still have a shot at the playoffs after the NFL extended the playoff pool to seven teams for each conference. New England is coming off a 45-0 win over the Chargers, so it's been able to stay in the state, which is a huge situational advantage for the visiting side here. Cam Newton only had 69 yards passing last weekend, but the run game had 180 yards and the special teams play was incredible. 

The pick: The Rams and Patriots both have Top 10 defensive numbers, but each come in off high-scoring victories. LA smoked the Cardinals 38-28 last time out and it now has the lead in the NFC West over Seattle due in part to the tie-breaker. I expect these two motivated sides open up the playbook and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Pats/Rams.

The set-up: FAU had a week off and returned to action last weekend and promptly fell 20-3 to Georgia Southern. FAU is now 5-2 overall and 4-1 in Conference USA standings. Southern Mississipi comes in fresh and focussed after its last two games were cancelled because of COVID concerns. The Eagles are just 2-7 and they last fell 23-20 to UTSA, but Southern Miss won't be rolling over in this nationally televised contest. Neither teams scores a lot and each is decent defensively (especially FAU, which concedes only 12.4 PPG), and those facts have definitely helped in driving this O/U line down. However, I think it's too low considering the overall situation.

The pick: Also note that Southern Miss has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 when playing with two or more weeks of rest, while FAU has seen the total fly "over" in 14 of its last 22 after scoring three or less points in a loss in its previous outing. I look for this one to fly "over" as the game comes down the stretch.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER FAU/Southern Miss.

The set-up: Dallas is on the ropes. It's 3-8 and it's coming off a poor 41-17 home loss to Washington on Thanksgiving day. The Cowboys need to win this game. They basically need to win every game if they have any shot at making the playoffs. One thing's for sure though, if the Cowboys lose today, they're season is essentially over. I expect Dallas to give its best shot today. The only way this team is going to win is to put the pressure on Baltimore and hope that it makes a few mistakes. 

The pick: LaMar Jackson is back under center for the home side and he'll look to take advantage of this Cowboys defense which is ranked dead last in the league. Baltimore needs some wins as well and it has every reason to run up the score even if it has a lead as it tries to regain chemistry which it's recently lost. I expect both teams to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Dallas/Baltimore.

The set-up: This is an important non-conference game for both teams. The Bills are 8-3 and the 49ers are 5-6. Buffalo beat the Chargers 27-17 last time out, while the 49ers beat the Rams 23-20 on the road. Buffalo is going to try and push the tempo of this one, as it comes to the West Coast averaging 27.2 PPG, while allowing 25.6. Josh Allen has emerged this season as one of the top QB's, as he has 3,028 passing yards, 22 TD's and eight interceptions. 

The pick: The 49ers are fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt after a slow start, due mostly to injury and COVID. San Fran snapped its three-game losing streak last time out as its finally adjusting on the offensive side with Nick Mullens under center. So far Mullens has 1,642 passing yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions. San Fran averages 23.7 PPG and it allows 23.1, but note that it's seen the total fly "over" the number in four of its last six vs. Buffalo. The Bills have seen the total fly over in four of their last five on the road and all signs point to these strong trends continuing here. This number is a little low.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Buffalo/San Fran.

The set-up: Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I think this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two clubs? For me its decent defensive play and strong run games. Both teams have above-average quarterbacks directing the show as well though. Jared Goff and Kyler Murray are poised for a big game here on Sunday afternoon in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Arizona has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last six at home, while LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 20 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. This one has "shootout" written all over it.

This is a 9* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Rams/Cards.

The set-up: I think this is the week. This is the week that the Jets finally get off the schneid, not only covering this game, but winning outright. It's a perfect situational play in my opinion. The Jets are not giving up and want desperately to get off the schneid. Although they lost badly to Miami last weekend, previous to that they lost two very close games, against two decent teams. Vegas really needs a win as well, but the Raiders are dealing with injuries and issues of their own and are still reeling from a humbling 43-6 loss at Atlanta last weekend. 

The pick: Yes, the Jets are a bad team. New York has had to deal with plenty of COVID and injury issues this year, but it comes in likely healthier now that it's been all season. I look for the Jets to lay everything on the line today as they finally get into the winners circle!

This is a 9* DESTRUCTION on the JETS on the MONEY-LINE.

The set-up: These teams are awfully similar on the offensive side of the ball, but Cleveland has the slight advantage defensively. Cleveland comes to town off a 27-25 win at Jacksonville, while Tennessee looks poised for a letdown after its 45-26 road win at Indianpolis. Cleveland's defense gets a huge boost for this game as well, with the expected return of star Myles Garrett. 

The pick: Tennessee played with revenge last weekend and after that emotional victory, I think a minor setback is immiment at home. Neither team has looked perfect this year, as each has suffered with consistency at times. Cleveland's issues this year came mostly though when leading receiver OBJ was injured and it took a couple of weeks for the offense to adjust. That adjustment period is now over though and this Cleveland team is one which will fight until the final moments. In a contest which I see being decided late, I'm grabbing the points!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Florida is still in the playoff hunt at 7-1 after beating Kentucky 34-10 this past weekend. Tennessee's game against Vanderbilt was postponed, so the Vols come in fresh after their last game, a 30-17 setback at Auburn all the way back on October 21st. I like the Gators and Kyle Trask to keep the foot on the gas here from start to finish, as Florida is one win or one Georgia loss away from clinching the SEC East. Florida averages 43.4 PPG and it allows 25.9. 

The pick: Tennessee averages just 20.1 PPG, while allowing 30.1. In their last loss to Auburn, the Vols actually outgained the Tigers 464-385, but costly turnovers were the difference. Jarrett Guarantano comes in rested here for the home side though and I think the extra time off will translate into production on the field for the hungry home side. I think Trask will put on a show this afternoon and I like Tennessee to keep it competitive until late. This number is low.

This is a 9* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Florida/Tennessee.

The set-up: ULM is 0-8, while Arkansas State is 3-5. It's been a difficult year for both teams in many ways and I expect each to come out flat and disinterested here. Arknasas State won this game 48-41 last year, but that was then and this is now. Last year ULM averaged 31.6 PPG, but now the offense is sputtering along, averaging only 16.4 PPG. That's good news to Arkansas State's poor defense. The defense has been a mess for the Warhawks as well, but the Red Wolves' offense hasn't been anything to write home about this year. 

The pick: It's interesting to note that Arkansas State actually has the 13th ranked pass defense in the nation. Yes, these teams struggle defensively, but that's mainly against good teams. These are two bad teams and I expect that sloppy/awkward play to result in a solid, lower-scoring "under" once the final whistle sounds.

This is an 8* play on the UNDER ULM/Arkansas State.

The set-up: Tom Herman is coaching for his job here for Texas. The Longhorns' offense revolves around Sam Ehlinger, who will look to move to a perfect 4-0 against K-State ofr his career. The Texas defense has taken a hit, but fortunately that unit faces the poor offense of the Wildcats, which have averaged just 362.2 yards per game of offense, with backup Will Howard now directing the show after Skylar Thompson went down with injury. 

The pick: To make matters worst for K-State, its defense has been even worse than its offense, allowing 426.6 yards per game and almost 270 of those yards through the air. And that's the difference-maker here for me entirely, as I expect Ehlinger to have himself a day here. Texas still has a chance to finish 7-3 (with a game at home against the lowly Jayhawks to finish it off.) I expect Ehlinger to take over this game on Saturday afternoon - lay the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas.

The set-up: Both teams are in search of a victory. Both teams have lost to Coastal Carolina. App State bounced back from that loss to smash Troy 47-10 last weekend. QB Zac Thomas and the Mountaineers raced out to a four touchdown lead in the first half and then never looked back. Louisiana Lafayette has won five in a row after crushing UL Monroe 70-20 last weekend. Quarterback Levi Lewis had five touchdowns in the rout. App State's defense matches up well against the Cajuns option attack though, as it's allowing only 139 rushing yards per game. 

The pick: Both teams run the ball extremely well and in this very important contest, I expect each to run from start to finish. While both teams have played to some very high-scoring affairs of late, I expect this one to finally fall under (note that six of these team's last eight against each other have indeed fallen "under" the number.) 

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER UL Lafayette/App State.

The set-up: Air Force is 2-2 and Utah State is 1-1. Both teams are hungry for a victory and I believe that the competition level on the field of play will translate into offensive production. Air Force won this game 31-7 last year, but I expect a much higher-scoring contest here. Air Force has had three different games cancelled already in November. Overall the Falcons score 26 points per game and allow 18.3, but those numbers are skewed due to the small sample size. The Aggies dropped their first four games, but they finally broke through with a 41-27 win over New Mexico last time out. Utah State's offense broke out in a big way in that game and I expect the Aggies to build. And they'll have to, because their defense is terrible, conceding 35.2 PPG. 

The pick: Air Force will score at will here on the ground and the Aggies air attack is finally working. This one has "shootout" written all over it.

This is an 8* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Air Force/Utah State.

The set-up: Unfortunately, I played this game before all of the issues that the Ravens have gone through over the last week and I have the opening line of 3.5. I'm locked into this play and while I obviously don't love it as much as I did before all of this happened, I still do think that the Ravens have a legitimate shot at upsetting the Steelers outright. Baltimore plays with revenge after a 28-24 loss at home on November 1st. The Ravens actually outgained the Steelers 457 to 221 in that one and had 25 first downs compared to just 19. However, Pittsburgh won the turnover battle 4 to 1 and that was the difference in the end. The Ravens and Steelers are very evenly matched with their numbers through all three phases. 

The pick: The Ravens have both of their star RB's available now as well to play. Whoever is under center for Baltimore today, I think that the Ravens will "step up" here and "man up" and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Ravens.

The set-up: Seattle has lost three of its last five and it needs to keep winning here to maintain its lead. The Hawks have some hope though, as Arizona is coming off a loss in New England. These teams last played a playoff game last January and Seattle won 17-6. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting a much more wide-open affair here though, as each team truly is desperate for a victory today. Philadelphia is coming off a second-straight loss, falling 22-17 to Cleveland at home. Overall the Hawks average 31.8 PPG. Seattle's defense has been poor though and the secondary has some key injuries today, including S Marquise Blair and Lano Hill and cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Neiko Thorpe are out.

The pick: Philly is only averaging 22 PPG, while allowing 25.4. I'll point out though that the Eagles have seen the total fly "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after scoring 19 points or less in a loss in their last outing. More than anything, this sets up great as a "shootout" from a situational standpoint. Both teams have weapons on offense, and I expect them to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is low.

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Hawks/Eagles.

The set-up: Everything on paper here screams "under," but I'm going the other way and expecting the undermanned Saints to "man up" and push the pace from start to finish. New Orleans defense looked good against the Falcons last weekend, but I think the unit will struggle in this difficult road venue. Denver comes in off a 20-13 win over the Dolphins, so this is a team which has not even come close to throwing in the towel yet. From a situational stand point, I think it sets up great for a higher-scoring affair. 

The pick: Note as well that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after holding its previous opponent to 13 points or less in a victory, while New Orleans has seen the total fly over in five of its last six on the road. This number is low.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the Saints/Broncos OVER.

The set-up: The Browns are 7-3 and ready to finally break out with a big offensive game. Cleveland has had to deal with plenty of inclement weather conditions the last few weeks, but now this high-powered offense can be unleashed in sunny conditions and vs. this poor Jacksonville secondary. The Browns earned a close 22-17 victory over Philly at home last time out, but I expect a much higher-scoring affair this time around. 

The pick: Mike Glennon gets the nod for the visitors, who will be eager to atone for a poor effort against the Steelers last weekend. Fortunately for Glennon he faces one of the worst defenses in the league. Neither team has played to many high-scoring affairs of late, but I expect that trend to finally end here. The play is the over.

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Browns/Jaguars.

The set-up: I think this is a bad spot for the Dolphins, who got upset badly by the Broncos on the road last weekend. Tua Tagovailoa looked poor and I think he'll struggle here again vs. this hungry home side that's still determined to get off the schneid with a win. The Miami offense moved better with Fitzpatrick and the defense looked slow last week.

The picks: The Jets have plenty of issues on both sides of the ball, but they're getting a lot healthier. This is a great opportunity for Sam Darnold has weapons and his defense is improving as well. With a chance to deal a big blow to Miami's playoff hopes, I do indeed believe the outright win is possible for the home side. However, why not grab up all these points?!

This is a 9* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on the Jets.

The set-up: Obviously TCU is the much better team. But it's not that much better. TCU is 3-4 and Kansas is 0-7. But with a game at Oklahoma State to end the season, I think the Horned Frogs take the foot off the gas in the second half. Kansas had its last game postponed, previous to that it lost 62-9 to Oklahoma. TCU had its two game win streak snapped in a 24-6 loss to WVU and I think it comes out flat-footed here vs. the lowly Jayhawks. Situationally speaking, this one sets up great for the home side in my opinion. TCU averages 24 PPG and it allows 26.7. Kansas has averaged 15.1 and allowed 48.4. 

The picks: I'm not going to try and tell you that the Jayhawks are going to win this game outright, as that's not going to be the case. I simply feel this is a really bad spot for TCU after last week's loss and with a bigger game next week vs. the Cowboys. This is the Jayhawks best shot at a win this year and I believe they play with pride and easily keep this one close with the large spread. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas.

The set-up: Northwestern is 5-0, while MSU is just 1-4. Clearly Northwestern is the better team, but I expect complacency to finally settle in here. Michigan State has had an extra week off to prepare as well for this one, so I expect the Spartans to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Wildcats are only allowing 12.6 PPG, but note that they're only scoring 25.8. Peyton Ramsey has been decent with eight TD's and our INT's, but I think the Wildcats take the foot off the gas in the second half. 

The picks: Rocky Lombard has seven TD passes and six INTs. MSU has allowed 33.8 PPG over the last four games, but I think the extra time off to prepare will help them here. They also benefit facing this non-explosive Wildcats attack. With a game at Minnesota up next, I think Northwestern does indeed get caught looking ahead. Look for Lombardi to have a bounce back game here and to keep this one close. Grab the points.

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Michigan State.

The set-up: No outright, but closer than expected! Ball State enters on top form, having won two straight. The Cardinals offense is balanced, averaging almost 480 yards of offense per game and 33.3 points. Ball State is allowing 437 yards of offense, but with Toledo QB Eli Peters injured (possibly out), the door is open for Ball State RB Caleb Huntley and company.

The picks: Carter Bradley could get the call here if Peter's leg injury keeps him out. Toledo has looked good on both sides of the ball, but note that the Rockets are still a poor 1-5 ATS their last six following an ATS victory, while the Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four when playing the role of underdog. I think this is a game that the visitors can win outright, but let's grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Ball State.

The set-up: Here is another great "situational" play. I think CMU is the better team in this matchup, but after falling 52-44 to rival Western Michigan in its last outing, I look for the visiting side to come out flat vs. the lowly Eagles. EMU is winless and it's hungry to get off the schneid (note that it's lost two of its games by seven points or less.) These two QB's are a "wash" as well, as CMU's Daniel Richardson and EMU's Preston Hutchinson have similar numbers. 

The pick: Note as well that CMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after allowing 50 or more points in a SU loss in its last outing. The conditions are right for an outright upset here, but let's grab the points!

This is an 8* play on EMU.

The set-up:

The picks:

This is an 8* play on UNC

The set-up:

The picks:

This is an 8* play on USF.

The set-up: Iowa is 3-2. It started 0-2 and has won three in a row. Nebraska is 1-3 and it comes in under the radar here. Nebraska comes in off a poor showing at home against Illinois, so there is some overreaction here about how bad the Huskers really are in my opinion. Iowa comes in off a big win over Penn State on the road. Iowa's defense has been the difference maker though, as QB Spencer Petras has four INT's and three TD's this year. 

The picks: Nebraska has allowed 34.3 PPG in the early going, which obviously is poor. The Huskers catch a bit of a break facing this Iowa offense which averages 180 YPG on the ground. The Huskers' offense has put points on the board, averaging 21.3 PPG. Nebraska has two QB's in Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey and I think they'll keep their team competitive late. No outright, but look for Iowa to take the foot off the gas in the second half, allowing the hungry visiting side to comfortably sneak in through the back door.

This is a 9* DESTRUCTION on Nebraska. 

The set-up: Iowa State is 6-1 in Big 12 play for the first time ever and suffice it to say, I expect a bit of a letdown here in this difficult road venue. Brock Purdy had 236 yards and two TD's in his team's blowout win over K-State last time out. Texas though is on a three-game win skein as well. Texas' defense is underrated, it looked good in the 17-13 win over WVU last time out. 

The picks: Texas last game was postponed due to COVID, so the Longhorns come in with an extra week of rest to focus and prepare. I'll give a big nod to Sam Ehlinger over his counterpart Purdy as well, as Ehlinger has been a difference-maker so far for his team. I'm laying the short points in this great situational play, but expecting a big rout.

This is a 10* BEATDOWN on Texas.

The set-up: Both teams come in off important victories. The Redskins have Alex Smith back under center and their run game has improved. They're going to have their hands full here with this revenge-minded Cowboys team which also enters off a crucial victory over Minnesota. The Cowboys offense behind Andy Dalton finally returned to form and I think that the Redskins are going to have a lot of trouble slowing down this balanced Cowboys attack that's out for revenge. Situationally speaking, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring "over." 

The picks: It's important to note as well that despite the Redskins lower-scoring win at home over Dallas earlier in the season, that eight of these team's last ten in the series have indeed gone "over" the number. Also note that it's gone "over" in these team's last five on this field. For all the reasons listed above, play the "over!"

This is a 9* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Washington/Dallas.

The set-up: Both teams are struggling this year. The Texans are eseentially eliminated from playoff contention, but the Lions still have a shot. After getting blanked 20-0 by Carolina last week, I expect a much better effort from the Lions offense on the national stage on their home field. Houston only averages 78 yards per game on the ground, so its game-plan will be to let DeShaun Watson take over this game. Watson comes in off one of his strongest games, going for 344 yards and two touchdowns in a win over New England at home, their third win of the year. These are two teams hungry for a win and I expect that competition to translate into production on the field. 

The picks: Additionally note that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in ten of its last 14 after Watson throws for two or more TD's in a win in its last outing, while Detroit has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 11 at home. This one has "shootout" written all over it!

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Houston/Detroit.

The set-up: Both teams need victories. Tampa has struggled against the better defenses so far this season and the Rams come to town with one of the best units on that side of the ball. LA is 6-3 and Tampa is 7-3. The Rams enter with a ton of momentum though, as after their bye-week they won a crucial 23-16 contest over division rival Seattle at home last Sunday. Jared Goff had over 300 yards passing for a second straight game. The defense though was tremendous, posting six sacks and two INT's. Tampa comes in off a 46-23 win over Carolina, as Tom Brady had 341 passing yards and three TD's. As mentioned above though, Brady has struggled against strong pass rushing teams, so I expect the veteran to take a step back here today. 

The picks: Schedule wise this favors the Rams, as the Bucs have yet to have their bye-week and coach Bruce Arians admits his team is tired. They're coming off a big win over a division rival on the road, and then Tampa has to deal with the Chiefs at home next weekend. LA hasn't been on the road since November 1st. While the outright win is possible in my opinion, I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* MONEY-BOMB on the LA Rams.

The set-up: Las Vegas is dealing with some COVID 19 issues right now with some of its defensive players. The Chiefs are 8-1 and their only loss was to the Raiders at home, so they come out of their bye week focussed and ready to lay a beat down on the national stage. KC's offense is as dangerous as ever, but its defense has made big strides this year, as it allows only 6.6 yards per attempt passing, which ranks thrid in the league. 

The picks: The Raiders earned the upset victory in KC, but they're still just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 following a SU win, while the Chiefs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 when playing the role of favorites. KC is out for revenge and Andy Reid has had an extra week off to design and prepare. I expect a blowout from start to finish. 

This is a 10* SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR on the Chiefs.

The set-up: All good things have to come to an end at some point. Miami has played exceptionally well over the last five weeks, but I think it'll struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue. The Fish enter off a 29-21 win over the Chargers, while the Broncos come in off a 37-12 loss to the Raiders. Tua Tagovailoa is in unchartered territory at this point and I think he's going to preditably struggle in the thin air of Denver. 

The picks: The Broncos have lost two straight on the road, but they'll be trying to win their second straight at home. Drew Lock and Melvin Gordon III give the home side the potential to earn an outright victory, but in the end I'll recommend to grab the points. Miami has hit a dangerous part of its schedule, with a "cream puff" at division rival Jets up next and I think it'll get caught complacent and looking ahead. Expect Denver to shock Miami and earn a hard-fought win and cover!

This is an 8* COACH'S CORNER on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: Philadelphia desperately needs a win here after falling 27-21 to division rival New York last time out. CLeveland comes in off a 10-7 win over Houston last time out. While both teams do indeed come in off lower-scoring affairs, I fully expect both Carson Wentz of the Eagles and Baker Mayfield of the Browns to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Miles Sanders returned from injury for Philadelphia last weekend and he had 85 yards in a losing cause. This is big for Wentz's offense though. 

The picks: Mayfield also benefits from a healthy backfield, as both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are back and this is going to open up the play-action for the home side pivot. Totals were up across the league after the first five weeks, but they've since dropped back down considerably over the last few weekends. I think this one has dropped a little too low, as I look for these two non-conference playoff hopefuls to open up the playbook and I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

This is a 9* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Eagles/Browns.

The set-up: Cincinnati has been great, but it has a big target on its back after all of the attention its gotten and I believe it finally stumbles this weekend in this difficult road venue. The Bearcats most recently thumped ECU 55-17 last Friday. The Knights won't at all be intimidated though obviously, they most recently hammered Temple 38-13 last weekend. This also sets up as a revenge game for the home side, which fell 27-24 in Cincinnati last season. These teams are evenly matched for the most part. Desmond Ridder and Dillon Gabriel are a "wash" at the QB position. Each team is also sharp defensively. I don't think the Bearcats will go undefeated though this year and note that they're just 2-8 ATS in their last ten after five or more SU victories in a row.

The picks: UCF on the other hand is 23-2 straight-up in its last 25 at home. This one has the feel of whichever of these two hungry teams has its hands on the ball last is going to win and in a scenario like that, I'm going to always grab as many points as I can. So that's what I'm doing here!

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on UCF.

The set-up: I've grabbed the points, but I do expect Penn State to finally get into the win column here as well with a straight-up victory. With a spread like this, the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe that these teams are evenly matched. I do think that's the case also, but for me this comes down to motivation levels. Iowa is 2-2 and the Nittany Lions are 0-4. Iowa has once again been tough defensively, allowing just 14.8 PPG. QB Spencer Petras is a game manager, as RB Tyler Goodson is the focal point.

The picks: The Nittany Lions went 10-2 last year and note that they've never started a season 0-5 ever in their entire 100-year history of playing. Penn State lost 30-23 to Nebraska last time out, but it looked a lot better in the second half. Will Levis and Sean Clifford are going to keep this Hawkeyes defense on its heels today. Yes, Penn State has fallen off considerably from last year's team, but so too has Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been consistently inconsistent this year and after last week's win, I expect that trend to continue here vs. a Nittany Lions team which will be risking life and limb to try and finally get into the win column. As stated off the top, the outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State.

The set-up: Obviously I'm not predicting an outright upset here. I simply believe that Florida will go up big early, and then take the foot off the gas in the second half as it prepares for Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU to finish off the season. 

The picks: Vanderbilt is winless, but it's been competitive in almost every game it's been in, most recently falling 38-35 at Kentucky, scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter. Kyle Trask could even be pulled in the second half, leaving the door open for Ken Seals and company to earn a solid backdoor cover. Just like UMass on Friday night, look for this spread to be too much for the favorite to cover here. 

This is an 8* ATS BLOWOUT on Vanderbilt.

The set-up: Coastal Carolina has a target on its back and I think that App State will give it everything it can handle on Saturday afternoon. The Mountaineers lost their opener, but they enter on top form after five-straight victories. Overall the Mountaineers allow only 16.9 PPG. Coastal Carolina has exceeded expectations for sure this year, as it's ranked and it's also beaten a ranked team. It allows only 16.3 PPG. App State won this game 56-37 last year, and while I'm not predicting an upset of that size this season, I do expect the hungry visiting side to deliver the goods.

The picks: The Mountaineers third ranked rushing offense will prove to be the difference maker here, as I expect it to keep Grayson McCall and the CC offense off the field of play more than usual. Look for App State's run game and defense to be the difference this afternoon, and grab as many points as you can.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Appalachian State.

The set-up: Minnesota is coming off a 33-7 loss to Iowa and it's now only 1-3, while Purdue enters off a 27-20 loss to Northwestern, falling to 2-1. If recent history is any precedence, then the Gophers have to be loving their chances as they've taken the last two in this series, including a 38-31 decision last season. Purdue only managed 262 yards of offense in its last outing. Overall the Boilermakers averages 25 PPG and they allow 23.7. Aidan O'Connell has 916 yards passing, seven touchdowns and only two interceptions. 

The picks: Tanner Morgan had two costly INT's in the Gophers loss last weekend. So far in the early going Minnesota is averaging 29 PPG, but it's conceding 35.8. Morgan has issues with his offensive line, but Purdue's defense isn't adept at rushing the passer, so this is a perfect opponent to get bounce back against. I'll point out as well that the Gophers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a 20 points or larger SU/ATS loss in their previous outing. This one has the feel of whichever teams has its hands on the ball last is going to win and in a scenario like that, I'm going to grab the points.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Minnesota.

The set-up: Arizona scored a high-scoring OT victory at home over Seattle a couple weeks ago. Both teams have been playing to very high-scoring games this year, but on the short week, I think that trend changes. Seattle desperately needs a bounce back victory here. The Hawks' once vaunted defense is long gone, but this is a big opportunity for that unit to bounce back as well. It's been raining heavily in the Pacific Northwest for the last couple of weeks and that's going to play a factor here as well. 

The pick: Both teams will be out to establish the run from start to finish while on offense on this blustery night in Seattle. Note that the last four Cardinals road games have gone "under" the number as well. I believe the conditions are definitely right for more of a "chess match," than a run and gun "shootout." This number is a little high.

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Cards/Hawks.

The set-up: The Rockets won this game 37-34 in OT last year, but I think they'll earn a much easier victory on Wednesday night. Toledo has averaged 38 PPG in the early going, but two late TD passes by WMU was too much to overcome in a close setback last weekend. QB Eli Peter was 30 of 46 and while the defense struggled, that unit catches a break this week facing the Eagles. 

The picks: EMU most recently lost 38-31 to Ball State. In the setback the Eagles posted 377 total yards of offense, with Preston Hutchinson accounting for 250 of those through the air. The Eagles though are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven following an ATS victory, while the Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive win and cover!

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Toledo.

The set-up: These teams are only playing six games in the MAC this year, but I still think this sets up as a bit of a "look ahead" game for Buffalo. The Bulls are 2-0 and the Bowling Green Falcons are 0-2. But with a game at 2-0 Kent State up next, I believe the Bulls will be caught taking the foot off the gas in the second half. 

The pick: Buffalo likes to run the ball and the Falcons are poor at stopping the run. This one comes down to whether or not Bowling Green can get some points in garbage time and I believe it can, as even Northern Illinois put some points on the board in garbage time vs. the Buffs last time out. For all the reasons listed above, grab as many points as you can and expect a solid back door cover. 

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Bowling Green.

The set-up: Chicago comes in off a tough 24-17 loss at Tennessee. The Bears are now desperate as they look to break a three-game slide. The Vikes on the other hand look poised for letdown in my opinion after two-straight wins, most recently a 34-20 victory over the Lions. Dalvin Cook has sure looked great for Minnesota of late, so far he has 858 rushing yards and 13 TD's. Despite their recent "blip of success" though, note that the Vikings average 27.1 PPG, while conceding 29.3. 

The picks: Nick Foles had a big day in the Tennessee loss, going 36 of 52 335 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears have dominated this series at home, going 16-3 the last 19 in this series and 5-1 ATS the last six. Clearly I believe the outright is going to happen, but in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Chicago Bears.

The set-up: I played this game early and have a very good number, but regardless, I love this play to fall well below the posted number once it's all said and done. For the most part I base my O/U picks on "situations" and "trends" (in every major North American sport.) The 49ers are essentially playing for the playoff lives here and clearly the last thing they can do is turn this into a "track meet" and expect to hang with the high-flying Saints. New Orleans on the other hand comes in off its sixth straight win, including a blowout victory over rival Tampa last weekend, so this sets up as a letdown spot for the home side. 

The picks: San Francisco's strength remains its defense, but New Orleans' unit is definitely underrated (additionally note that NO has seen the total go "under" the number in nine of its last 14 after five or more SU victories in a row.) For all the reasons above, look for this total to stay "under" at the end of the night.

This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER 49ers/Saints.

The set-up: This game opened as a pick, but it's since moved to -2.5 or even -3 for the home side. For this pick I'm going to suggest steering clear of the spread though and to lay the reasonable price for the Rams to win on the money-line. Seattle got out to a great start, but that came against weak competition. The Hawks' defense is atrocious and I expect Jared Goff and the Rams to take care of business at home. Seattle has also lost two in a row on the road. Russell Wilson has 28 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions, but Seattle allows 30.4 PPG. 

The picks: The Rams on the other hand have won three straight at home. LA averages 24.1 PPG and it concedes just 19. LA lost to Miami, but it conceded only 145 total yards. While this is a money-line bet, it's still interesting to note that LA is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss, while Seattle is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. the division. Wilson has thrown five INT's over his last three games, as regression on the offensive side is also under way in Seattle. Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Lay the price for the outright, straight up win.

This is a 10* NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR on the RAMS on the MONEY LINE.

The set-up: Philadelphia leads the NFC East at 3-4-1 and it comes out of its bye week rested and prepared to increase its lead in the division at the New York Giants, who moved to 2-7 in the division after last week's 23-20 win over the Washington Football team. Previous to their bye week, the Eagles beat the Cowboys 23-9. While both teams have played to a few lower-scoring games in a row, I believe today's contest finally sets up as more of a "shootout." Situationally it definitely appears to be a high-scoring game to me, as these two QB's will clearly be given the green light to take over this game. The first game between the clubs this year featured plenty of yardage, but not much scoring. Look for that trend to end here, as I expect these two hungry clubs to fight tooth and nail until the final whistle sounds. 

The picks: Note as well that the total has gone "over" the number in six of the Giants last eight at home anyways, while it's also gone "over" in seven of these teams last ten vs. each other. Look for this total to sneak "over" as it comes down the stretch.

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Philly/NY.

The set-up: UNLV will try to get off the schneid after starting the season 0-3. Most recently the Rebels fell 40-27 to Fresno State this past weekend. QB Max Gilliam has four touchdowns through three games. SJSU on the other hand is 3-0 after an upset 28-17 win over SDSU on Saturday. The Spartans were double-digit dogs, but QB Nick Starkel and company somehow managed the upset. Starkel left the SDSU game with a hand injury though and his status is up in the air here. 

The picks: The Spartans have only allowed 14.7 PPG in the early going, but winning leads to complacency. With a game vs. Fresno State up next as well, this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the home side. SJSU backup QB Nick Nash is capable, but the Runnin Rebels are desperate here. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

This is an 8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on UNLV.

The set-up:

The picks:

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on New Mexico.

The set-up: Fresno is 2-1 and Utah State is 0-3. Fresno lost 34-19 to Hawaii to open the year, but the Bulldogs have rebounded to beat two bad teams in UNLV and Colorado State. Utah State's competition has been much greater, having lost to Boise State, SDSU and Nevada. After the 34-9 loss to Nevada, head coach Gary Anderson was fired, with assistant head-coach Frank Maile now stepping in as interim. I think the Aggies will respond on the field of play to this coaching change. 

The picks: Utah State is also 11-4 ATS in its last 15 at home, while Fresno State is is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. No outright, but look for the coaching change to help motivate the home side here as they at they very least, take this one rigth down to the wire. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* MW GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State.

The set-up: Does ECU have a shot at winning this game outright? Of course not. There's zero chance of that. Cincinnati has a favorable schedule and it appears to be on a mission. However, I think this is a great situational play, as I do think the Pirates will play hard on this nationally televised game, while I also fully expect the Bearcats to take the foot off the gas in the second half as they get ready for a much tougher game at UCF next weekend. Situationally, this one sets up great for the Pirates. 

The picks: Cincinnati has already blown out plenty of opponents this season and there's just zero reason for it do so again. We've reached the point of the season where it has to start looking ahead and I fully expect that to happen here. I base my picks on many things. Situations, trends, trying to go against public money/perception at times. For this one though, it's all about the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one (it's also important to note that ECU is in fact 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road as well.) Grab the points.

This is a 10* U OF THE U on ECU.

The set-up: The Colts come in off a 24-10 home loss to the Ravens, but I think they'll find a way to get past the "on again, off again" Titans on Thursday night. Tennessee ended a two-game skid with a tougher than expected 24-17 home win over the Bears last weekend. These teams played twice last year of course and the road team won each tame. I like Philip Rivers to bounce back here vs. this suspect Titans secondary. Overall Indy is averaging 26 points per game and allowing 20. 

The picks: Tennessee is averaging 29 PPG and it's conceding 25.1. The Titans are a poor 27th against the pass as well, allowing 275 yards per game. The Colts are third against the run, which is Tennessee's strength. I'm banking on Rivers being the difference maker here vs. this terrible Titans defense. That said, grab the points!

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Indianapolis Colts.

The set-up: Boise State enters off a terrible 51-17 home blowout loss to BYU, while Colorado State enters off an upset 34-24 win over Wyoming on Thursday. These teams have met nine times and the Broncos have won all nine games. That includes last year's 31-24 victory in Fort Collins. Suffice it to say, I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Colorado State is 1-1. The Rams are somewhat "lucky" though, as they did allow 465 total yards of offense last week, but they managed to hold in the red zone somehow, while also forcing three Wyoming turnovers. 

The picks: The Broncos were forced to play with their third-string QB vs. BYU and it showed. Cade Fennegan finished with 187 yards and two TD's. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from the home side as it looks to alleviate the pressure from Fennegan. This one sets up as more of a "chess match" than a "shootout" in my opinion. 

This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER CSU/Boise State.

The set-up: EMU opened with a 27-23 loss to Kent State, while Ball State lost 38-31 to Miami Ohio. Preston Hutchinson was 21 of 35 for the Eagles in his opener, throwing for 241 yards, two TD's and two INT's. EMU's weak point last year was its defense and I think the unit will predictably struggle on the road here in this difficult venue. 

The picks: Ball State had an interesting season last year, as it won only five games, but it was just eight points away from an eight win season. The Ball State defense is also poor, but the offense has been great, led by senior QB Drew Pitt, who had 309 passing yards, one TD and one INT in the opener. Ball State's balanced offense will be the difference maker in the end though, as Caleb Huntley had 132 rushing yards and two TD's in last week's setback on the ground. Pitt and the Cardinals have a huge experience edge. They're also playing at home. I like Ball State to put the foot on the gas and keep it there until the final whistle. Lay the points.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Ball State.

The set-up: Akron is coming off a 58-13 loss to WMU, while Ohio enters off a 30-27 setback to Central Michigan. Akron has lost two straight in this series. Last week Zach Gibson had 125 passing yards, one TD and one INT. The Zips struggled defensively last week, but the unit catches a bit of a break facing this run oriented Ohio offense. 

The picks: Bobcats' QB Kurtis Rourke had 231 passing yards and two TD's in last week's loss, while De'Montre Tuggle had 79 rushing yards and a TD. Ohio was caught flat-footed defensively last time out, but once again, the Bobcats defense catches a big break here facing this poor Akron offense. While the total went over in both team's first game of the year, and while the over has hit in the last three in this series, the overall circumstances finally point to a lower-scoring "under" in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER in Akron/Ohio.

The set-up: I got down early and have an unfavorable line, but regardless, I like the Jets to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. This is a big game for the Jets, who have an opportunity to get their first win of the year against the worst team they've faced all year, while also putting the final nail in the coffin for the Patriots playoff hopes. This is a monster "revenge" game as well for the Jets, who have lost eight straight in this series and nine of ten. Both teams have been terrible offensively and "OK" defensively. 

The picks: Darnold and the Jets have had to deal with several injuries, but I still think he's a better QB than Newton. Darnold won AFC Player of the week twice last season. Note as well that the Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven when playing at home to the Patriots. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Jets.

The set-up: The Titans come in off a 31-20 setback to the Bengals last weekend, while the Bears lost 26-23 in OT to the Saints. The Bears offense is going to struggle to keep pace here in my opinion. So far Chicago has gotten great defensive play to keep it in games, but Tennessee averages 29.7 PPG and it only concedes 23.

The picks: Chicago is also only 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home, while the Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after back-to-back SU losses. I love Tennessee here, as I expect Derrick Henry to set the ton early. Lay the points, expect a rout!

This is a 9* COACH'S CORNER on the Titans.

The set-up: The Ravens are 5-2 and after this game they have contests vs. the Patriots, Titans and Steelers up next. The Colts on the other hand are tied with Tennessee for top spot in the AFC North after winning back to back games. Baltimore will be out to atone for last week's 28-24 loss to Pittsburgh. The Ravens will look to establish their run game today to try and alleviate a lot of the pressure of LaMar Jackson. 

The picks: Philip Rivers and the Colts face one of the best pass defenses they'll see all year, but Indianapolis also has a strong run game, led by Jordan Wilkins. The Colts are No. 5 against the pass and the Ravens are No. 2. With both teams looking to "run first," look for this total to stay well "under" once it's all said and done!

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Ravens/Colts.

The set-up: Buffalo is 6-2 and Seattle is 6-1. This is an important non-conference contest for both teams, who look to maintain their leads in their division and conferences. The Seahawks have averaged 34.3 PPG and they've allowed 28.4. The Hawks have seen the total go "over" in several games this year, but note that they've seen the total dip "under" in ten of their last 13 after scoring 35 points or more in an ATS/SU win at home in their last outing. 

The picks: The Bills offense has regressed somewhat the last two weeks, and the defense has improved slightly. The result is 2-0 the last two games, most recently a 24-21 win over New England, in which Cam Newton fumbled the ball away in the final seconds with a chance for victory. Overall though the defense was great against Newton, holding him to 174 yards passing and no touchdowns. Buffalo averages 24.8 PPG and it allows 24.9. Buffalo has also seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 16 after B2B SU victories. This number is a tad high.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Hawks/Bills.

The set-up: WKU has lost three of its last four, but off a blowout loss to BYU, I like the Hilltoppers to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. FAU has had three games postponed due to Covid. It's been good in the early going, allowing only 13.3 PPG, but I think it comes out a bit flat to start here, and that's going to be the advantage we grab hold of and ride to a solid cover. Despite losing 41-10 to BYU, WKU had 166 rushing yards in the setback. QB Tyrell Pigrom had been great as well, as he has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. 

The picks: FAU enters off a 24-3 win over UTSA. Nick Tronti had 382 passing yards, three TD's and one INT on the year. Note though that FAU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after holding a team to three points or less in a victory in its previous outing. I like the "hungrier" team to at least cover with the generous spread.

This is a 9* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on WKU.

The set-up: Minnesota is 0-2. Illinois is 0-2. Two teams enter, only one will leave with a victory. And that team will be the Gophers (and in resounding fashion!) Last year the Gophers annihilated the Illini 40-17 in this game and I expect a similar beatdown here. Last year Minnesota only lost two games total. Last time out Minnesota lost in OT to Maryland off a failed PAT. THe Gophers lost a lot of talent, but I like Tanner Morgan to help his team to bounce back here finally and get off the schneid. 

The picks: And here's the perfect team to do it against, as Illinois hasn't won a game since Nov. 23rd of last year. Overall the Illini allow 309 passing yards per game, which is second worst in the nation. QB Coran Taylor is a lone stand out on a poor team and I look for Minnesota to finally get untracked here (note as well that Illinois is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.) I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout.

This is an 8* BLOWOUT on Minnesota.

The set-up: Cincinnati is 5-0 and Houston is 2-2. Clearly the Bearcats are the better team and I'm not going to try and convince you otherwise. Desmond Ridder leads an exciting and dynamic Bearcats offense and Cincinnati has also been great defensively. The Bearcats have a favorable remaining schedule as well, so a Championship berth is not out of the question if they can run the table. It's a shortened season, so it's definitely possible as well. 

The picks: Houston comes in under the radar though in my opinion (note that it's 4-1 ATS/SU in its last five on the road.) Houston fell apart in a loss to UCF last weekend. They also have a loss to BYU (43-26). They have big wins over Tulane (49-31) and Navy (37-21). I think the Bearcats take the foot off the gas in the second half. Expect a comfortable cover.

This is a 9* COACH'S CORNER on Houston.

The set-up: The Sooners are out of their fourth straight win here. There's no reason to run up the score in the second half though. It's true these teams have been playing to some pretty high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the overall situation that each school finds itself in coming into this contest will finally lead to a lower-scoring affair. Oklahoma smashed the Red Raiders 62-28 last weekend, but I don't expect a repeat performance here, despite the Jayhawks' issues on the defensive side of the ball. Kansas is looking to get off the schneid, entering at 0-6, and looking to atone for a poor 52-22 setback to No. 17 Iowa State last time out. 

The pick: Another situational factor that leads me to believe that Oklahoma will take the foot off the gas in the second half is scheduling. The Sooners enjoy their bye-week next week, before finishing off the season vs. Oklahoma State, at WVU and at Baylor. The total has also gone "under" in four of these teams last six in the series. I base my picks on many things, but my O/U selections are primarily based on "situations." This one meets several of my personal criteria. This number is high in my opinion.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Kansas/Oklahoma.

The set-up: Syrause is a bad team, but I like it to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Boston College almost beat Clemson last week and because of that "near miss," I think the Eagles come out a bit flat here (of course, Trevor Lawrence wasn't playing in that one.) Overall BC averages 27.6 points per game, while allowing 26.3. Syracuse comes in off a 38-14 home loss to Wake Forest. The Orange actually played decently against Clemson as well, and Syracuse was the first to intercept Lawrence in his Collegiate career. Overall the Orange only average 19 PPG, while conceding 13.3. 

The picks: Yes, BC is the better team here. But the situation favors the hungry underdog home side. With a game at home against Notre Dame in another nationally televised contest, I expect BC to take the foot off the gas as well in the second half if it does in fact have a lead. I'll grab the points and expect a solid back door cover.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Syracuse.

The set-up: San Jose State is 2-0 and I think it'll give the Aztecs a run for their money on Friday night. Most recently the Spartans topped New Mexico 38-21 last Saturday, covering the 13.5 point spread. SDSU is also 2-0 after its 38-7 win over Utah State. SDSU won this matchup 27-17 last year and it has in fact won seven straight in this series. Can anyone say "revenge factor?!" Nick Starkel had three TD passes for SJSU last weekend. He also ran two in. SJSU averages 27.5 PPG and it concedes 13.5. 

The picks: SDSU got two rushing TD's from Greg Bell last time out. The Aztecs actually outgained the hapless Aggies 570-215. Overall SDSU averages 36 points and it allows just 6.3. Both teams have faced lesser competition, but that changes this weekend. SJSU has made significant strides on both sides of the ball and I think it's being severely underestimated here by the oddsmakers. I like Starkel to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on San Jose State.