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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-31-16	Ohio State -3 v. Clemson	Top	0-31	Loss	-110	118 h 18 m	Show
The set-up: Most seem to feel Alabama is a 'lock' to advance past Washington into the championship game, leaving this semifinal matchup in the Fiesta Bowl between No. 2 Clemson and No. 3 Ohio State as Dec. 31st's marquee game. Clemson won the ACC title and enters 12-1 while 11-1 Ohio State did not even play in the Big Ten championship game, as it lost a tie-breaker to Penn State in the Big Ten's East Division. Both teams have been selected for the four-team playoff for the second time in its three-year history. The Tigers reached the national championship game before suffering a 45-40 loss to Alabama last season, while the Buckeyes defeated the Crimson Tide and Oregon en route to the 2014 title. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have an excellent running game (258.3 on 5.5 YPC ranks 9th) led by RB Weber (1,072 yards, 6.1 YPC & 9 TDs) and J.T. Barrett (847 yards, 4.4 YPC & 9TDs). Of course, Barrett is the starting QB and has thrown for 2,428 yards with 24 TDs and just 5 INTs. The offense averages 42.7 PPG (9th) and the defense is one of the nation's best, allowing 14.2 PG (3rd) on 286.0 YPG (4th). Ohio State does have road wins at Oklahoma and Wisconsin on its resume but the Buckeyes were a two-point conversion away from losing to an awful Michigan State team and were inches away from losing to Michigan in overtime in the team's regular season finale. Clemson: Although not undefeated this year, Clemson is back in the playoff for a second consecutive year. QB Deshaun Watson's passing numbers are similar to last year (3,914 yards with 37 TDs and 15 INTs so far in 2016 over 13 games, compared to 4,104 yards with a 35-13 ratio in 15 games last season) but didn’t run as much as he did last year. Watson has a more modest 529 yards (4.1 YPC and 6 TDs), after running for 1,105 yards last season on 5.3 YPC with 12 TDs. RB Gallman (1,002 yards on 5.1 YPC with 15 TDs) leads a rushing attack averaging 173,4 YPG (67th) on 4.5 YPC. That's nice balance and while Clemson has averaged almost 30 YPG more than Ohio St, it scores 40.2 PPG to Ohio St's 42.7 (not much of a difference). The defense is very good but not quite in Ohio St's class, allowing 18.4 PPG (17th) on 313.9 YPG (9th). The pick: Clemson brings an impressive resume into this game, as its fifth-year seniors are 58-9 SU, including bowl wins over Ohio State, LSU and Oklahoma twice, before falling to Alabama in a highly-competitive championship game last year. It's true that four of Ohio State's last six games were way too tight (including the loss to Penn State) but going against Urban Meyer at this stage is a tough one. He led the Buckeyes to the 2014 title after 'sneaking' into a Final Four spot in the final CFP poll. Now this year, Ohio State becomes the first team to be selected for the College Football Playoff without winning its conference championship. Urban and his crew (players and coaches) just may also remember that 40-35 Orange Bowl loss to Clemson in the 2013 season, as well. Make Ohio State a "strong" 10* play.
12-31-16	Washington +14 v. Alabama	Top	7-24	Loss	-110	47 h 44 m	Show
The set-up: The 12-1 Washington Huskies earned the 4th and final CFP playoff spot and their reward is a Peach Bowl matchup with 13-3 Alabama, the nation's top-ranked season every week since opening the year as No. 1 in all polls. Alabama takes 25-game winning streak into the national semifinals, as Nick Saban looks to win his fifth national championship in 10 seasons as the Tide's head coach. The Huskies have ascended quickly under third-year coach Chris Petersen and are enjoying their best season since the 1991 Don James-coached unbeaten squad shared the national championship with Miami. Washington: QB Jake Browning completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 3,280 yards with 42 TDs and just seven INTs. RB Myles Gaskin is over 1,300 yards for a second straight season (1,339 on 5.9 YPC with 14 TDs) and his backup Lavon Coleman sports a 7.8 YPC average while rushing for 836 yards and seven TDs for a rushing attack averaging 210.0 YPG (36th). WR Ross totaled 76 receptions for 1,122 yards and 17 TDs for the Huskies, who average 44.5 PPG (4th). The defense allows 17.2 PPG (7th) on 316.2 YPG (11th) and features standout junior free safety Budda Baker (65 tackles, two interceptions) and senior outside linebacker Psalm Wooching (team-high six sacks). However, it remains without two of its top players in senior outside linebacker Joe Mathis (foot) and junior middle linebacker Azeem Victor (leg). Alabama: The superlatives surrounding the Crimson Tide are almost too many to mention. I'll start with a defense led by DEJonathan Allen, who won the Nagurski Trophy as the national defensive player of the year. The unit is No. 1 in points allowed (11.8 PPG), rushing yards (63.8 YPG) and total yards (248.2 YPG). Those numbers go just fine for a well-balanced offense averaging 247.2 YPG on the ground (5.7 YPC) and 224.1 YPG through the air, scoring 40.5 PPG (13th). Alabama QB Jalen Hurts is a multi-faceted player who runs nearly as well as he throws. Browning, a sophomore, passed for 3,280 yards and a school-record 42 touchdowns, while Hurts accounted for 34 scores (22 passing, 12 rushing) and is striving to join Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway (1985) as the only true freshmen QBs to lead a team to a national title. "I'm a firm believer in age being nothing but a number," the 18-year-old Hurts told reporters. "And I feel like if you step up to any situation and you're able to play your game, be confident, have the poise you need to have, you'll be alright." The pick: It seems like a foregone conclusion that Alabama is headed for the championship game and if the numbers provided above weren't enough, the Crimson Tide totaled 14 non-offensive TDs, matching Southern Mississippi (2011) for the most in FBS since 1996. However, while the Pac 12 didn't garner much respect this season, I will not overlook what Chris Peterson has done at Washington in just his third season. He also led Boise State to a bowl game in each of his eight seasons there, although he did not coach in that final one, leaving for the Washington job. Few will ever forget his 2006 Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma (43-42 in OT) or his 2009 Fiesta Bowl win (17-10) over then 12-0 TCU, completing a 14-0 season. No upset here but I'm taking the points and making Washington a 10* play.
12-31-16	LSU v. Louisville OVER 59.5	Top	29-9	Loss	-105	43 h 44 m	Show
The set-up: The 7-4 LSU Tigers will meet the 9-3 Louisville Tigers in the Citrus Bowl (Orlando), in a late-morning start (11:00 ET). QB Lamar Jackson toyed with defenses for most of 2016 en route to becoming Louisville's first Heisman Trophy winner but its he'll likely face his toughest test of the season on Dec. 31 against LSU, which ranks sixth in scoring defense (16.4 PPG ) and 14th in total defense (323.0 YPG) LSU: The Tigers opened the year No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll but lost its first game 16-14 in Green Bay to Wisconsin. When the Tigers lost 18-13 at Auburn on Sept. 24th to fall to 2-2, Les Miles was fired. Assistant Ed Orgeron replaced Miles and the team went 5-2, losing 10-0 to Alabama and 16-10 to Florida. However, Orgeron has been hired full-time and LSU will be a dangerous team in this one. That said, RB Leonard Fournette will not play after declaring for the NFL Draft earlier in the month. One year after rushing for 1,953 yards and 22 TDs (both school records), he was dogged by an August left ankle injury that forced him to miss four regular-season games in 2016. Despite missing nearly half the season, he'll leave as the Tigers' single-season leader in rushing yards per game (162.8), career rushing yards per game (119.7) and 200-yard games (five). Finding a QB (or passing game) will be "Job-1" for Orgeron moving forward, as LSU enters this contest ranking 101st of 128 FBS schools with 187.6 YPG passing. Louisville: The Cardinals were in contention for the College Football Playoff spot in mid-November but lost their final two games, at Houston and inexplicably at home to state rival Kentucky (as a four-TD favorite), to finish 9-3. Jackson wasn't at his best in the final two games, as Houston sacked him 11 times and he committed four turnovers against Kentucky. However, he earned an easy Heisman victory. And, why not? Jackson is the only player in FBS history to throw for 30-plus TDs (30) and rush for 20-plus TDs (21) in the regular season. He set the ACC record for TDs responsible for in a single season (51) while breaking the single-season school marks for rushing yards (1,538) and 100-yard rushing performances (eight). Louisville second in the nation in both scoring (45.3 PPG) and total yards (558.8 YPG), which overshadows a defense which ranked 32nd in points allowed (23.3 PPG) and 12th in total yards allowed (316.2 YPG). The set-up: As good as the LSU defense is, I do not expect them to contain Jackson and Louisville (remember, Kentucky scored 41 points on 581 yards!) plus LSU won't miss Leonard Fournette all that much with Derrius Guice filling in (he has 1,249 yards and 14 TDs at 8.0 YPC). The Louisville defense is not in the class of Alabama's or Florida's, the two teams which beat LSU under Orgeron. In LSU's five wins after Miles was fired, the Tigers averaged 43.4 PPG. Make the Over an 8* play in this one.
12-30-16	Florida State +7.5 v. Michigan	Top	33-32	Win	100	28 h 56 m	Show
The set-up: No. 6 Michigan is hoping to take out the disappointment of missing out on the College Football Playoff when it faces No. 10 Florida State in the Orange Bowl on Dec. 30 in Miami. The Wolverines were in position to make their first appearance in the CFP but they lost two of their last three games down the stretch, including a controversial 30-27 double-overtime loss at No. 2 Ohio State. The Seminoles were picked fourth in the preseason AP poll but failed to live up to the hype, suffering losses to Louisville (60-23), North Carolina (37-35) and second-ranked Clemson (37-34) during a six-week span and at 9-3, failed to advance to the ACC title game for the second time in as many seasons. Michigan: John Harbaugh has wasted little time in making Michigan relevant again, as he's gone 10-3 and now 10-2 (pending this result) in his first two years at Ann Arbor, after the school had suffered through three losing seasons in its previous seven, along with two other seasons of going just 7-6. Sophomore hybrid linebacker Jabrill Peppers, a Heisman finalist who has played in 11 different positions, leads a defense which ranks second in points allowed (12.5) and total yards (252.7 YPG). QB Wilton Speight, who threw for 2,375 yards and 17 TDs and just six INTs in his first year as a starter, was hampered by a shoulder injury down the stretch but is expected to be back to 100 percent health against Florida State. "Wilton had a phenomenal year and improved game by game," Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh told reporters. "I truly think he will go into next year as one of the top quarterbacks in the country." The running game averages 223.2 YPG (30th) without a real star, as four palyers have over 400 yards on the year. On the season, Michigan has averaged 41.0 PPG to rank 11th in scoring. Florida State: The Seminoles have a true star at RB in Dalvin Cook, who has rushed for 4,319 yards and 45 TDs in his Florida State career, and like Peppers, is are likely playing his last collegiate games. Cook rewrote the record book with the Seminoles after running for 1,620 yards (6.0 YPC) and 18 TDs this season to break Warrick Dunn's career mark for rushing yards (3,959) and eclipse Greg Allen's 32-year old record for most TDs (44). Deondre Francois took over at QB when starter Sean Maguire was hurt prior to the start of the season. He didn't play well in the games FSU lost (a key here?) but overall, the redshirt freshman completed 60.6% of his passes for 3.128 yards (18 TDs / 6 INTs) and added four rushing TDs. The defense had its bad moments (allowed 45.7 PPG in FSU's three losses!) but overall, comes in allowing 24.4 PPG (40th) on 357.2 YPG (29th). The pick: Harbaugh's Michigan team opened 3-1 ATS with that pointspred loss coming by a half-point. However, Michigan was 3-5 ATS its last eight games. Meanwhile, the Seminoles indeed ahd that early embarrassment vs. Louisville (see above) but came on strong late, taking Clemson to the wire ina 37-34 home loss (but cover) and then winning their last four, including the last three (3-0 ATS) by a combined 87 points! Cook has rushed for at least 100 yards in eight of his last nine games and is coming off an 153-yard performance in the 31-13 win over No. 18 Florida in the regular season finale, to become the first player since Sammie Smith in 1988 to notch three straight 100-yard games against the Gators. No way FSU should be a TD underdog in this game. FSU is a 10* play.
12-30-16	North Carolina v. Stanford OVER 54	Top	23-25	Loss	-103	22 h 45 m	Show
The set-up: North Carolina went 8-4 and heads to El Paso for a Sun Bowl meeting with 9-3 Stanford.The biggest storyline heading into the game was Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey announcing on Twitter that he will sit out the Sun Bowl to focus on his NFL draft preparation (will this be trend). Stanford comes in with momentum (on a five-game winning streak) while North Carolina lost two of its final three, beating only the The Citadel. North Carolina: Junior QB Mitch Trubisky is an emerging NFL prospect who threw for 3,468 yards while completing 68.9% with 28 TD passes and just four INTs. The running game is below average, gaining 148.2 YPG (99th). Overall, North Carolina averages 33.1 PPG (40th) and its defense holds opponents to 24.9 PPG (45th). The season was a roller-coaster, with wins over Florida State, Miami and Pittsburgh but it ended with disappointing late-season losses to Duke and North Carolina State. “We weren’t able to overcome all the emotions we created for ourselves,” coach Larry Fedora told reporters. “There were a few games down the stretch that we didn’t play up to our capability. We didn’t make the ordinary plays that we needed to make. Stanford: Head coach David Shaw watched his offense struggle early in the season and replaced senior QB Ryan Burns with sophomore Keller Chryst, who provided an immediate spark and led the Cardinal to five straight wins while throwing nine TDs and one interception. McCaffrey leads the nation with 2,327 all-purpose yards and has posted 1,603 rushing yards but with his 'boycott,' it creates an opportunity for promising sophomore Bryce Love, who has run for 664 yards on 7.4 YPC. Love had 160 all-purpose yards and scored the winning touchdown in a 17-10 win at Notre Dame in October, when McCaffrey was out with an injury. According to Shaw, love is "a physical, explosive runner. He's not a small back by any stretch of the imagination. He runs through tackles and he's tough. For a guy who's under six foot, he can push the pile and drive his legs." Stanford's defense allows 20.2 PPG (17th) on 365.6 YPC (36th). The pick:North Carolina has really been shown up in its last two bowl appearnces, losing 40-21 to Rutgers in 2014 and 49-38 to Baylor, last year. Carolina has not ben physical enough and it showed signs of wearing down defensively in losing to both Duke (allowed 467 yards) and NC St (492 yards in two of its last three games (41-7 win over The Citadel hardly counts). Stanford loves to play smashmouth FB and Chyrst has brought another dimension to the offense with his solid play. Led by Trubisky, the North Carolina offense will give Stanford's D all it can handle. The Over is an 8* play.
12-30-16	TCU -2.5 v. Georgia	Top	23-31	Loss	-120	20 h 45 m	Show
The set-up: The first of Friday's five bowl game is the Liberty Bowl, played in Memphis, Tennessee. The 6-6 TCU Horned Frogs will face the 7-5 Georgia Bulldogs. TCU's Gary Patterson is taking TCU to a bowl game for the 14th time in 16 seasons while Georgia head coach Kirby Smart, a longtime coordinator and disciple of Alabama coach Nick Saban, is in his first season at the Bulldogs' helm. However, this will be Georgia's 52nd bowl-game appearance, fourth most of any team in the country. The schools will be meeting for just the fourth time in their history and first time since 1988. TCU: "Our standards have been very high at TCU, and being 6-6 is not something that we're that happy about," Patterson said. "But we're glad that we got back to a bowl game. I think that helps us, especially playing against a great opponent." TCU has only 13 seniors on this year's roster, one of the reasons they've fallen off dramatically from going 12-1 and 11-2 the [previous two years (note: TCU was 47-5 from 2008-11). The offense is well balanced, passing for 278.3 YPG and rushing for 196.7 YPG while averaging 31.7 PPG. QB Hill has thrown for 3,062 yards but with a modest 15 TDs and 13 INTs. He left the Horned Frogs' regular-season finale with Kansas State with a foot injury but returned to practice and is "running around," Patterson said. He's expected to play. TCU does not have a standout RB with Hicks the best of the group, running for 954 yards on 5.1 YPC with 12 TDs. The defense is no better than average, allowing 27.8 PPG (61st). Georgia: Smart’s first season at Georgia was marked by a 1-4 stretch in the middle of the season, a stirring upset victory over Auburn and then a bitter home loss to in-state rival Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs have clearly fallen short of expectations, after finishing 10-3 in both 2014 and 2015. However, the Bulldogs received good news Dec. 15 when RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, who combined to rush for 1,741 yards and 10 TDs, announced they would return for their senior seasons. The running game averages 186.5 YPG (52nd) but QB Eason has completed just 55 percent of his passes and threw just 14 TDs. He did not top 200 yards passing six times in 12 games (11 starts), as the offense ranked 106th in scoring 24.0 PPG (11th of 14 schools in the SEC). Smart is a "defensive guy" and Georgia’s defense forced 25 turnovers (tops in the SEC) and allowed 24.1 PPG (40th) on 328.0 YPG (17th). The pick: The transition season from the Mark Richt era to Kirby Smart did not go as planned. The offense simply never came together, with a deep and talented RB corps underachieving. QB Jacob Eason showed promise for the future but he's still a work in progress. TCU's 6-6 record speaks for itself but the Horned Frogs lost three games by six points or less, including two in overtime. They closed the regular season with losses in four of their final six contests. However, Patterson's teams have won eight of their last 10 bowl games and in this about pick'em game, I want the much more experienced head coach. TCU is a 10* play.
12-29-16	Oklahoma State +3 v. Colorado	Top	38-8	Win	100	72 h 19 m	Show
The set-up: The 2016 Alamo Bowl has its best matchup ever, as it features teams both ranked inside the top-12 of the final CFP rankings. No. 10 Colorado of the Pac-12 takes a 10-3 record into this game, while No. 12 Oklahoma State of the Big 12 checks in at 9-3. The teams in many ways are mirror images of each other, as both teams utilize spread offenses, employ mostly stingy, turnover-causing defenses and have special teams that excel. Oklahoma State: The Cowboys lost their regular-season finale 38-20 at Oklahoma in the de facto Big 12 championship game. OSU has great offensive balance with QB Mason Rudolph throwing for 3,777 yards with 25 TD and just four INTs. He is backed by a solid rushing attack, averaging 169.5 YPG. RB Hill has run for 1,042 yards on 5.6 YPC. However, OSU needs Rudolph to play well. Rudolph has surpassed 350 yards passing in five games this year, including two of the past four contests and threw for a school-record of 540 yards in Oklahoma State's win over Pitt. The Cowboys’ defense allows 457.0 YPG (108th) and 28.1 PPG (65th) but has forced 24 turnovers and ranks ninth nationally with a plus-10 turnover differential. Colorado: The Buffs' unexpected turnaround, going from 5-40 in its first five seasons of Pac-12 play to 8-1 (10-3 overall) and winning the Pac-12 South, was one of the more surprising developments of CFB 2016 and garnered fourth-year head coach Mike MacIntyre national coach of the year awards. "We're excited about Colorado going to their first bowl game in 10 years," Buffaloes' coach Mike MacIntyre said. "It's a chance for us to get the monkey off our back for the bowl games and it's a lot of fun. Our kids will be excited about it. It's going to be a heck of a football game with a great atmosphere." The Buffaloes are also excited about having QB Sefo Linfau back for this game. Linfau missed most of the first half of the Pac-12 Championship game because of an ankle injury but he's healthy and ready. The four-year starter owns or has tied 87 school records (58 passing, 20 on offense and nine others). He has thrown for 2,171 yards and was responsible for 18 touchdowns (11 passing, 7 running) this season. The running game is led by Lindsay (1,189 on 5.2 YPC with 16 TDs) and averages 191.8 YPG to rank 48th. Colorado's defense made YUGE strides this year, after allowing 27.5 PPG and 417 YPG in 2015. This year's team allows 20.5 PPG (19th) on 327.6 YPG (16th). It also recorded 26 takeaways (tied for seventh nationally). The pick: Colorado's turnaround was impressive but the Buffs earned wins over Stanford, Oregon and Utah by a combined 13 points and those programs were all weaker than usual. No one on Colorado's roster has ever been to a bowl game before, while Mike Gundy is taking the Cowboys to an 11th straight bowl appearance. Not sure why Colorado is the small favorite. Experience counts and make Oklahoma State an 8* play.
12-29-16	South Florida v. South Carolina UNDER 62.5	Top	46-39	Loss	-110	65 h 9 m	Show
The set-up: Willie Taggart did such a good job in his stint at USF that after this year's 10-2 regular season, he departed for Oregon. However, 25th-ranked South Florida still has plenty to play for when it faces 6-6 South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl on Thursday afternoon at Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama. South Florida: The Bulls will be led by wide receivers coach T.J. Weist but new head coach Charlie Strong will be evaluating his squad. Junior QB Quinton Flowers, the American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Year, will also be looking to get a jump-start on the 2017 Heisman Trophy race. Flowers passed for 2,551 yards with 22 TDs and just six INTs, plus led USF in rushing with 1,425 yards on 8.1 YPC with 15 TDs. He's one of just three players in the nation to both pass for 2,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards this season. RB Mack added 1,137 yards on 7.1 YPC and also scored 15 TDs. The team ran for 292.2 YPG (5th) on 6.7 YPC, leading the way for an offense which averaged 43.6 PPG (7th). The Bulls haven’t been nearly as consistent on the defensive side of the ball, having allowed at least 500 total yards in four of their last five games, ending the regular season allowing 482.3 YPG (120th) and 31.0 PPG (86th). South Carolina: The Gamecocks had to win four of their last six games to become bowl eligible but enter off a 56-7 'spanking' at Clemson. Still, the Gamecocks have doubled their win total in Muschamp’s first campaign in Columbia. They start start seven true freshmen including QB Jake Bentley, who took over in late October and led the team to that 4-2 finish. He's thrown for 1,030 yards with only six TDs but also just two INTs. The running game averages only 138.0 YPG (3.8 YPC) to rank 106th for an offense averaging just 19.2 PPG (122nd). However, South Carolina can trust its defense, one allowing 24.8 PPG (44th) while ranking 10th nationally in turnovers gained (25). The pick: USF is obviously the more explosive team and likely the way better team. However, the coaching transition for USF may not be quite as smooth as other situations, as several assistants are on their way to Oregon and those that remain are unlikely to be kept on by Charlie Strong. That means the awkwardness of some of the guys in charge of game planning having are also shopping their resumes and thinking about other matters at this rather busy hiring/firing period. South Carolina has notable wins over Tennessee (24-21), Vanderbilt (13-10) and Missouri (31-21) plus also defeated East Carolina of the AAC, 20-15. The Gamecocks are bowl-eligible for the 12th time in 13 seasons and have won their last four bowl games and only Marshall’s five-game winning streak in bowl games is longer. Look for teh South Carolina defense to keep the Gamecocks in this one making the Under a 10* play.
12-28-16	Kansas State +3 v. Texas A&M	Top	33-28	Win	100	48 h 9 m	Show
The set-up: Kansas State and Texas A&M both were 8-4 during the regular season and these two former Big 12 rivals (A&M moved to the SEC to begin the 2012 FB season) are hoping to cap their respective 2016 seasons on a high note with a win in the Texas Bowl, played at NRG Stadium in Houston (home of the Texans). This will be the first meeting between the programs since the 2011, after which A&M left for the SEC. Kansas State: The Wildcats won five of their final six games and come in with plenty of momentum. QB Jesse Ertz threw for a modest 1,560 yards (8 TDs and 4 INTs) but was the leading rusher (945 yards on 5.9 YPC with 10TDs) for a team which ranked 24th in rushing at 233.4 YPG (5.3 YPC). "Jesse has been doing it virtually all year, at least the last half or three-quarters of the year," head coach Bill Snyder said. "Jesse runs deceptively well and he's deceptively fast. You look at him and say he's lead-footed, but he's not. He has a good perception of how to run and make people miss." Three RBs ran for 375-plus yards to help out. Each of the team's top-five rushers averaged at least five yards per carry. The defense played well most of the year, allowing 21.8 PPG (21st) on 383.1 YPG (50th). Texas A&M: You might remember that Texas A&M earned the No. 4 spot in the first CFP rankings of the season but the team's 1-3 November left them at a much more modest 8-4 for season and nowhere to be found in the final regular season rankings. In fairness, injuries played a role in A&M's late-season slump but QB Trevor Knight did return from missing two games because of a shoulder injury to play in the regular-season finale against LSU. Knight' a graduate transfer playing his final college game and faced Kansas State three times while he was at Oklahoma.Knight can throw (2,122 yards with 16 TDss and six INTs) plus run, gaining 594 yards on 6.3 YPC with 10 TDs. A&M runs about as well as K-St, averaging 217.5 YPG (33rd) on 5.7 YPC. RBs Trayveon Williams (1,024 yards on 7.0 YPC and eight TDs) and Ford (583 yards on 5.0 YPC) give the team plenty of offensive balance. First-team All-American defensive end Myles Garrett (8.5 sacks) is a force who could end up as the No. 1 overall pick in next year's NFL draft and leads a defense ranked 37th by allowing 23.8 PPG. The pick: Bill Snyder was nothing special in bowl games in his first go-round with the Wildcats and since returning to take over Kansas State in 2009, has only managed a 1-5 SU & ATS record in bowl games. However, A&M is mired in another late-season slump (the program is 6-8 after October in the past three years) while Kansas St. comes in having won five of its last six, averaging 34.7 PPG. Also, Kansas State's defense is trending in the right direction, as the team has allowed decreasing point totals in four straight games - 43, 21, 19 and most recently six points in its regular season-ending win against TCU (Horned Frogs were held to just 280 total yards). Kansas State is an 8* play.
12-28-16	West Virginia +3 v. Miami (Fla)	Top	14-31	Loss	-130	45 h 49 m	Show
The set-up: West Virginia is 10-2 as it gets set to play 8-4 Miami-Florida in the Russell Athletic Bowl and has a chance to clinch the school's first 11-win season since 2007. Miami (Fl.) tries to finish its first season under Mark Richt with a five-game winning streak when the former Big East foes meet in Orlando, Fl. The No. 12 Mountaineers rebounded from their mistake-filled 56-28 loss to Oklahoma with victories against Iowa State and Baylor to finish an impressive 7-2 in the Big 12. While the unranked Hurricanes recovered from a mid-season four-game losing streak that included a pair of heartbreaking losses to Florida State and Notre Dame by outscoring their final four ACC foes 152-76 to save a season that appeared to be slipping away. West Virginia: The Mountaineers rank No. 12 in total offense (506.9 YPG) with a very balanced attack behind QB Howard (3,194 yards passing yrd, 60.8 percent completions, 26 TDs & 10 INTs) and a backfield led by Crawford (1,168 yards on 7.4 YPC) which also had four different players rush for more than 100 yards in a game. The passing game averaged 267.4 YPG and the running game 239.5 YPG (19th) on 5.4 YPC. However, the team's scoring average of 32.6 PPG ranked a more modest 46th. The defense had the opposite issue, allowing 431.2 YPG to rank 80th but allowed a more modest 23.4 PPG to rank 34th! Miami-Florida: QB Brad Kaaya could be headed to the NFL after this game and enters completing 61.2% for 3,250 yards with 23 TDs and seven INTs. He played his best at the end of the season when he benefited from improved protection from his OL plus the emergence of explosive freshman WR Ahmmon Richards (46 receptions, 866 yards, 18.8 yards per reception) and the improved play of TE David Njoku (38 catches for 654 yards on 17.2 YPC with 7 TDs). The offensive line's re-emergence after being dominated during the losing streak, also helped Walton (1,065 yards on 5.5 YPC with 14 TDs) and Joe Yearby (592 yards on 6.0 YPC) provide balance in the final four wins. Miami features four freshmen in their defensive front-seven and held nine opponents to 21 points or less (18.9 PPG on the season ranked 14th). The pick: Bowl games are often decided by which team is more motivated but in this case both squads should be excited to get on the field at Camping World Stadium. Miami hasn't won a bowl game in a decade, as its last win came in the 2006 MPC Computers Bowl over Nevada. Miami's lost six straight bowl games and seven of its last eight! The Mountaineers' outstanding regular season has already resulted in head coach Dana Holgorsen being given a five-year contract extension but they have the opportunity to possibly finish ranked in the top-10 and the Big 12 could use a big bowl season to crank up its reputation after a rocky regular season. Yes, Miami was 4-0 SU & ATS down the stretch but two wins came over 2-10 Virginia and 4-8 Duke, while the other two were over decent but not great teams, like Pitt and NC St. Make West Virginia an 8* play
12-27-16	Baylor v. Boise State UNDER 67	Top	31-12	Win	100	60 h 25 m	Show
The set-up: Miami-Ohio played in Monday's St. Petersburg Bowl, becoming the first team in NCAA history to start the season 0-6 before winning six straight to earn a bowl bid (result unknown at this time). In this year's Cactus Bowl, the Baylor Bears will take on Boise State, becoming the first team that has ever entered a bowl game on a six-game losing streak (Baylor opened 6-0 and was ranked as high as No. 8 in the AP poll). For the 10-2 Boise State Broncos, this marks the school's 17th bowl appearance and its 15th in a row (11-5 in first 16 bowls). Baylor: No college football program in America needs a fresh start more than Baylor. Sexual assault allegations against football players led to the firing of coach Art Briles prior to the season with Jim Grobe agreeing to coach this season, while Baylor searched for a new coach. Things were going better than expected early on (see above) but then came the team's total collapse. The Bears will have a new coach next season in former Temple head man Matt Rhule but interim coach Jim Grobe will run the team one last time. Through it all, the Bears have the fifth-ranked offense nationally, averaging 523.3 YPG, including 250.3 YPG rushing (13th). However, most of that was accomplished with Seth Russell (2,126 yards, 20 TD passes and eight INTs) at QB but he hasn't played since breaking his left ankle in a 45-24 loss at Oklahoma back on Nov. 12. Freshman Zach Smith started the final three games at QB and threw eight TD passes but alos six interceptions over that span. Expect the Bears to lean heavily on a running game led by sophomore Terence Williams (945 yards, 5.9 YPC & 11 TDs) and senior Shock Linwood (751 yards, 5.4 YPC and two TDs). Baylor's defense allows 30.4 PPG to rank 81st. Boise State: The Broncos feature junior RB Jeremy McNichols, who is weighing whether or not to bypass his senior season and enter the NFL draft. McNichols was fifth nationally with 1,663 rushing yards during the regular season and ranks seventh in school history with 3,159 career yards. He scored 27 TDs (23 rushing, four receiving) this season and his 44 career rushing scores are fourth most in Boise State history. Sophomore QB Brett Rypien (3,341 yards, 23 TDs passing) has two solid WRs in Thomas Sperbeck (72 catches, 1,193 yards & nine TDs) and Cedrick Wilson (50, 1,041 yards & 10 TDs), leading an an offense that averaged 35.6 PPG (27th) on 479.8 YPG (20th). The defense has allowed a modest 22.7 PPG (28th). The pick: After losing to Air Force for the third consecutive year and failing to make it into the conference championship for the second straight season, the Broncos are looking at a potential bowl win over a Big 12 team. "We're trying to finish this season the right way and take everything we've learned and apply it," coach Bryan Harsin told reporters. "And go out there and be a much better football team than we were in the last game." However, one wonders if a win over a Baylor team in a total collapse will mean much? Also, one has to wonder if a vote were to be taken now, just how many Baylor players and coaches would say yes to continuing this VERY awkward campaign? The Under is a 10* play.
12-27-16	Washington State v. Minnesota +10	Top	12-17	Win	100	57 h 6 m	Show
The set-up: A pair of 8-4 teams, Minnesota and Washington State, will square off in Tuesday's Holiday Bowl. Minnesota will play in a bowl game for a program record-tying fifth straight season (almost didn't but more on that in second) while Washington State bounced back from two early losses to contend in the Pac-12 before closing with back-to-back losses to Colorado and rival Washington. Washington State: Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense is led by QB Luke Falk, who completes 71.0% of his passes, throwing fro 4,204 yards with 37 TDs and just 10 INTs. He's led the Cougars to an average of 40.3 PPG )14th), despite a running game which contributes a modest 128.0 YPG which ranks 114th. Falk should be successful throwing the ball, as the Gophers have struggled against the pass this season, with only one Big Ten team giving up more passing yards per game than their 228.2 and they have only eight 'picks.' The Washington State defense allows 27.2 PPG, ranking 55th of 128 FBS schools. Minnesota: It's been an awkward time at Minnesota with the distraction of a recent boycott by the Golden Gophers following the suspension of 10 their teammates.Minnesota ended its two-day boycott Dec. 17, after the team were assured the players accused of involvement in an alleged sexual assault case will get a fair hearing. An upset win would cure some of the pain the program has endure, as Minnesota hasn't won nine games since the 10-win season in 2003. Minnesota surely has no QB the likes of Falk, as Mitch Leidner has just 2,040 passing yards (half of Faulk's total!) and nearly twice as many interceptions (12) as TDs (seven). The Gophers run the ball better than the Cougars (most teams do), led by Rodney Smith who has rushed for 1,084 yards (4.9 YPC) and 15 TDs (team averages 186.4 YPG to rank 54th). Minnesota averages 30.3 PPG (59th) and allows 22.9 PPG (31st). The pick: Preparing for Leach's "Air Raid" offense is tough enough under normal circumstances but with the distraction of players being suspended plus a possible bowl boycott costing the team a few practices, prep has been made even more difficult. I'll also note that Leach’s playbook is something that is foreign to what the Minnesota defense has faced in Big 10 Ten play. However, I believe motivation will be high on the Minnesota side ("win one for their teammates!") plus the Gophers' bowl experience is a big plua (5th straight appearance!). Minnesota's first-year head coach Tracy Claeys failed to record a single marquee victory during the regular season but he may get one here in San Diego. Take the big points and make Minnesota an 8* play.
12-26-16	Lions v. Cowboys UNDER 44.5	Top	21-42	Loss	-110	60 h 8 m	Show
The set-up: The 12-2 Dallas Cowboys have the NFC East division title and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs wrapped up as they get set to host the 9-5 Detroit Lions Monday night. As for the Lions, with the Packers beating the Vikings on Saturday, this game at Dallas will have no bearing on the NFC North race. Green Bay plays at Detroit on New Year's Day and the Packers would win the tiebreaker by sweeping the season series with the Lions. However, Detroit can at least enhance its chances of a wild-card berth by pulling an upset on Monday. Detroit:The Lions' 17-6 loss to the NY Giants in Week 15 ended a five-game winning streak and has their fans fearing a late-season collapse. "It's still one game," head coach Jim Caldwell said. "We've just got to come together and get better this week and go play the next one. That's the key. That's how it always is." The problem is, the Lions' offense has sputtered three of the last four weeks, producing 20 points or less. QB Matthew Stafford is playing with ligament damage to his right middle finger, forcing him to wear a modified glove. He completed 24 of 39 passes for 273 yards with an interception in New York but couldn't get his team in the end zone.Stafford's come up big all season for Detroit in "crunch time" but gets little help from his running game (81.7 YPG ranks 30th) and the offense is below average overall, ranking 21st by averaging 21.5 PPG. Dallas: Rookie QB Dak Prescott had been "living the dream" all season for Dallas but then got picked off twice while completing just 17 of 37 passes for 165 yards (QB rating of 45.4) in a 10-7 loss to the Giants in Week 14. He entered Week 15 having passed for fewer than 200 yards in three consecutive games. However, Prescott responded to adversity and criticism with a nearly flawless performance against Tampa Bay in Week 15 on SNF, completing 32 of 36 passes for 279 yards and adding a rushing TD in that 26-20 victory. That quieted talk about replacing the rookie with longtime starter Tony Romo. "I don't pay attention to the noise," Prescott said. "I couldn't tell you much of what was said. I kind of found out some of it later in the week but that really doesn't bother me. If anything, it's motivation. I just wanted to come back and perform after the game I had last week. That's the only thing in my mind. He say, she say doesn't affect me." Fellow rookie, RB Ezekiel Elliott, rushed for 159 yards and a TD and enters this game with 1,551 rushing yards on 5.0 YPC with 13 TDs. The pick: It's already been noted that Detroit has a poor running game and how will it get going against Dallas' No. 1 rush D, allowing 80.9 YPG? Stafford is not 100% and the Lions enter having averaged just 17.5 PPG their last four and now face a Dallas D allowing only 18.4 PPG (4th) on the season. Led by Elliott, Dallas ranks 2nd in rushing at 154.5 YPG and likely will play relatively conservatively. The Under is a 10* play.
12-26-16	Vanderbilt v. NC State OVER 44.5	Top	17-41	Win	100	57 h 37 m	Show
The set-up: Vandy and NC Stae are both 6-6 and will meet in the Independence Bowl at Shreveport, La. The Commodores won home games over Ole Miss (38-17) and then Tennessee (45-34) in its last two regular season games to reach 6-6, while the Wolfpack earned their sixth win at North Carolina in their regular season finale, beating the Tar Heels 28-21 as 10-point underdogs. Vanderbilt: The Commodores made three straight bowl appearances under former coach James Franklin from 2011-13, including a 38-24 triumph over N.C. State in the 2012 Music City Bowl but is going 'bowling' for the first time since Derek Mason took over the program. Derek Mason's stint at Vanderbilt began with 3-9 and 4-8 records with Mason and Vandy in danger of missing out on a bowl for the third straight season until engineering a 4-2 finish that included wins over Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee. In fact, the Commodores put up two of their three highest point totals of the season in the final two contests and piled up 608 yards in the 45-34 win over the Volunteers in the regular-season finale. Even with the team's "big finish," Vandy has averaged just 23.5 PPG (109th) on 359.2 YPG (108th). RB Webb is Vandy's best offensive player, running for 1,172 yards (5.1 YPC) and 12 TDs.The 'Dores defense has played well all year, allowing a modest 22.6 PPG (26th). NC State: The Wolfpack, like the Commodores, have modest offensive numbers (average 25.8 PPG) but solid defensive ones, allowing 23.2 PPG (32nd) on 356.8 YPG (28th). NC State senior RB Matthew Dayes is the team's best offensive player, running for 1,119 yards while saving his best for last with six TDs in the final three games of the regular season. The pick: It would be easy to say "under" in this one but "not so fast!" Both teams showed late-season success against notable opponents and it seems to have perked up the motivation for Vanderbilt and North Carolina State going into this game. With Vandy in particular, the Commodores averaged 13.2 points in going 1-5 in their first six SEC games but totaled 83 points in the final two games. RB Ralph Webb piled up 237 yards and five TDs on 41 carries while QB Kyle Shurmur threw for a career-high 416 yards in the win over Tennessee and threw four TD passes in the last two games.This is one of teh lowe over/under numbers of all the bowls and the Over is a 10* play.
12-26-16	Miami (OH) v. Mississippi State -14	Top	16-17	Loss	-115	51 h 37 m	Show
The set-up: Neither Miami, Ohio nor Mississippi State were thinking about going 'bowling' come December back in October. The Redhawks earned their first bowl bid since 2010 by winning their last six games after losing their first six. The Bulldogs were 2-5 entering the final weekend of October and with an impressive 55-20 win at Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, finished the regular season just 5-7. However, Miss. St. got in by virtue of its APR (Academic Progress Rate) when not enough 6-6 teams were available to fill the 80 bowl slots. So, a 6-6 team will meet a 5-7 team in this year's St. Petersburg Bowl. Miami, Ohio: The Redhawks are the first team in NCAA history to start the season 0-6 before winning six straight They averaged 29.8 PPG during their winning streak and held four of six opponents to 20 points or less. The turnaround was sparked by turning the starting QB job over to Gus Ragland, who completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 1,274 yards while throwing 15 TD passes and not a single interception in 149 pass attempts. Sophomore RBs Alonzo Smith and Kenny Young combined for 1,179 yards but the team averaged only 134.2 YPG on the ground (3.6 YPC) to rank 109th. Even with the team's late spurt, the offense ranks 111th in scoring (23.4 PPG) and 106th in total offense (362.2 YPG). The defense checks in allowing 24.3 PPG (40th) but remember, Miami played just one Power-5 school. Mississippi State:The Bulldogs huge win over Ole Miss got them this bid and QB Nick Fitzgerald, tasked with replacing Dak Prescott, threw for three TDs against Ole Miss plus added 258 rushing yards and another two TDs. He led the SEC in total offense with 3,530 yards (1,243 on the ground) and had a hand in 35 TDs, 21 passing and 14 rushing. The offense ranks 39th in total yards (449.0 per) and averaged 31.5 POPG. The defense struggled, allowing 33.1 PPG (96) but after all, the Bulldogs do play in the SEC. The pick: Miami's Ragland was superb as a game manager but he won’t bring anything that an SEC defense has not seen before. As for Miami's solid defensive numbers, this a YUGE step up in class and how does one ignore the fact that Miami allowed 45 points to Iowa, the lone Power-5 team it played this season. Nick Fitzgerald figures to be too much for the Miami defense to handle, as Mississippi State’s offense stepped it up in the second half of the season, averaging more than 45 points in the five games that were not against No. 1 Alabama. Lay the points and make Miss. St. an 8* play.
12-25-16	Ravens v. Steelers -4.5	Top	27-31	Loss	-110	117 h 6 m	Show
The set-up:The Steelers and Ravens have developed into one of the great NFL rivalries over the last decade and will meet in Pittsburgh's Heinz Field on Christmas Day (how fitting). Thirteen of the last 17 regular-season meetings between the teams been decided by four points or less, with seven of the last eight regular-season encounters between the teams at Heinz Field having been decided by three points. The Ravens won 21-14 in Baltimore back on Nov. 6 but they come in 8-6, while the Steelers, after five straight wins, enter this contest 9-5 and with a win, would clinch the AFC North title. Baltimore: While the Steelers simply need a win to clinch their seventh AFC North title, the Ravens likely need to beat both Pittsburgh and the Cincinnati Bengals in the regular-season finale to capture their first division crown since 2012. QB Joe Flacco was 18 of 30 for 241 yards with a touchdown and an interception in Baltimore's Week 9 win over the Steelers plus WR Mike Wallace had a huge game against his former team with four catches for 124 yards and a TD. However, while Flacco already owns a career-best 374 completions this season, he's thrown for a modest 19 TDs and 13 INTs with an 84.8 QB rating. His running game offers little support, averaging 90.6 YPG (28th) on just 3.9 YPC. Baltimore has typically been able to count on its strong defense and here in 2016, that hasn't changed. Baltimore ranks 5th in yards allowed (312.6 YPG) and 7th in points allowed (18.8 per). Pittsburgh:The Steelers lost four in a row (Weeks 6 through 10) and head coach Mike Tomlin's job was in jeopardy plus there was very serious talk about missing the playoffs. However, Pittsburgh has responded with five straight wins to reach 9-5 and now lead the AFC North. The Steelers' turnaround has been linked to the coaching staff’s commitment to Le'Veon Bell and the running game taking pressure off QB Ben Roethlisberger. Bell set a franchise record with 236 rushing yards against the Bills in Week 14. Bell had topped 100 yards in four straight, averaging 155.0 YPG plus had caught 22 balls for 203 more yards. He was 'held' to 93 rushing yards in Pittsburgh's 24-20 comeback win at Cincy in Week 15 (Steelers trailed 20-9 at the half) and added 38 receiviing yards. Let's also note that Big Ben is still a noteworthy QB, checking in with 3,540 passing yards with 26 TDs, 11 INTs and a QB rating of 94.9. Pittsburgh's defense has also been a force during the five-game run, registering 18 sacks while allowing 12.5 PPG prior to last Sunday and then after allowing 20 points in the first half, shut out the Bengals in the second half (note: Bengals had just 222 yards of total offense for the game). The pick: the Steelers are out for a measure of revenge in this as noted by offensive tackle Marcus Gilbert. "We lost the first game," he said. "This game is going to be ours, it's at our field. I'm excited, man. This is why we play the game of football." The Steelers have greatly improved since the last meeting with the Ravens and are riding a five-game winning streak, their longest since 2009. Le'Veon Bell leads the NFL with 158.8 yards from scrimmage per game and his 1,146 rushing yards are third-best in the league despite serving a three-game suspension to begin the season. Bell was limited to 32 yards rushing against Baltimore in Week 9 but that will change on Sunday. The Ravens were able to take advantage of a rusty Ben Roethlisberger after he had just returned from knee surgery when they defeated Pittsburgh in Week 9 but "Big Ben" is healthy now. The Steelers have covered 12 of their past 14 December games. Make Pittsburgh a 10* play.
12-24-16	Bengals +1.5 v. Texans	Top	10-12	Loss	-115	97 h 4 m	Show
The set-up: The 5-8-1 Cincinnati Bengals won’t be playing postseason football for the first time since the 2010 season. They travel to Houston on Christmas Eve night to take on the 8-6 Houston Texans, who enter Week 16 tied with the Tennessee Titans for first place in the AFC South. The Titans play at Jacksonville earlier in the day, so the Texans will know the result of that contest before kick-off. Cincinnati: Not much has gone right for the Bengals in 2016 but after their 14-point victory over the winless Cleveland Browns on Oct. 23, which left them 3-4, the Bengals still had hopes in the NFC North. However, they endured an 0-3-1 stretch with a mere minus-11 point differential. Cincy’s season is over but QB Andy Dalton said, "For us, we're going to do whatever we can to win these last two. So we're preparing the same way we always do. We have to come out and play our best." The Bengals c an still paly the role of spoiler in each of their final two games, here vs. the Texans and in Week 17 vs. the Ravens. Head coach Marvin Lewis is not considering resting the starters. "No. No," he told reporters. "Our thought is to win these last two football games with the best players we can put out there to play, and that's what we owe to everybody. This isn't junior high school." Included in that is Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Green, who sat out the last four games with a hamstring injury but returned to practice this week and could play on Saturday. Without Green, Dalton seems like an average QB. Houston: After watching backup QB Tom Savage rally the Texans to victory last Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars, head coach Bill O'Brien named Savage as his starter over deposed Brock Osweiler for Saturday night’s pivotal game. "As I said (Sunday), we don't make decisions based on anything other than what's best for the team," O'Brien said, referencing in part the wage gap between Osweiler, who is in the first season of a four-year, $72 million contract, and Savage, a fourth-round pick still on his rookie deal. “We make decisions on what we think is the best way to help the team, what helps the team win. I think that (Sunday) and this week, I feel like Tom Savage gives us the best chance to win. I'm going to give him a week to prepare as the starter, see what he can do for us on Saturday night against the Bengals. Osweiler is last among 31 qualifying QBs with an average of 5.75 yards per attempt and tied for second in the league with 16 interceptions, prompting O'Brien to make the change. Savage threw for 260 yards and averaged 7.2 per attempt in his chance against the Jaguars and is prepared for the opportunity to start again. “I’m always, each week going in there, prepared be the starter,” Savage told reporters. “That’s kind of the mindset I always have, just so when those situations come, you’re not startled, you’re ready to go in there and make some plays for the team." The pick: I believe the Bengals are a dangerous team these last two weeks. They fell apart last week against Pittsburgh (led 20-9 at the half but lost 24-20!) but if the Bengals can stop Houston RB Lamar Miller (1,031 yards), the Texans with Brock Osweiler (or now Savage), are not likely to beat you. More bad news for the Texans is that Miller left the last game with an ankle injury and it is unclear if he will play against the Bengals on Saturday. If Green can get back, I really ‘love’ the Bengals. Either way, Cincy is a 10* play.
12-24-16	Middle Tennessee State v. Hawaii +5.5	Top	35-52	Win	100	53 h 22 m	Show
The set-up: Middle Tennessee State from C-USA will meet Hawaii of the MWC in this year's Hawaii Bowl. The Blue Raiders lost star QB Brent Stockstill to a broken collarbone in a Nov. 5 loss to UTSA and lost their next game, 42-17. However, they rebounded to win 38-31 and 77-56 in their final two regular season games to finish 8-4.The Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii wouldn't have made a bowl game had enough teams finished with winning records but their 6-7 record was good enough because they had the advantage of a 13th regular-season game, which they used to edge Massachusetts 46-40 on Nov. 26.It will be Hawaii's seventh appearance in the Hawaii Bowl but its first since 2010. Middle Tennessee State: QB Brent Stockstill was thought to be out for the rest of the season when he broke his collarbone in that Nov. 5 loss but MTSU expects the redshirt sophomore to be back tonight in Aloha Stadium in Honolulu. Stockstill threw for 2,801 yards and 27 TDs in nine games. He completed 63.9 percent of his passes and tossed only five interceptions in 363 attempts. WR James was the top target, catching 97 balls for 1,463 yards with 11 TDs. Ole Miss transfer I'Tavius Mathers is one of the top dual-threat RBs in college football, rushing for 1,504 yards (6.8 YPC) and 16 TDs, while catching 62 passes for 589 yards and three more scores. The running game ranks 45th with 197.8 YPG on 6.1 YPC. The offense ranks 10th in total yards (514.8 YPG) and 16th in scoring, averaging 40.1 PPG. The Blue Raiders need to score, as the defense allows 34.4 PPG (102nd). Hawaii: The Hawaii defense is worse than MTSU's, allowing 37.5 PPG (115th) and doesn't score nearly as well, averaging 26.5 PPG (79th). However, first-year head coach likes his team's effort this season. "I can't tell you how proud I am of this team and especially these seniors who'll be able to say they played in a bowl game," he said. Hawaii opened 1-3 but then put the offense in the hands of sophomore QB Dru Brown, who completed 62.0 percent of his passes for 2,214 yards and 15 TDs (7 INTs). The top receiver is Marcus Kemp, who caught 70 passes for 1,036 yards and seven TDs. Hawaii's three-headed rushing trio consists of Diocemy Saint Juste (836 yards, three TDs), Paul Harris (537 yards, two TDs) and Steven Lakalaka (415 yards, 12 TDs), averaging 160.6 YPG (83rd) on 4.8 YPC. The pick: Not sure how much Stockstill's return means, as the team scored an amazing 115 points in the season's last two games without him. He may be rusty and his return could be a negative. Hawaii is 6-7 but remember that last bowl season, all three sub-.500 teams which made the bowl field won and covered their games. Why not Hawaii as well? After all, they get the bonus of playing on their home field. Make Hawaii an 8* play.
12-24-16	Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 43	Top	34-31	Win	100	93 h 4 m	Show
complete analysis by Saturday
12-24-16	Dolphins +4 v. Bills	Top	34-31	Win	100	90 h 41 m	Show
The set-up: The Miami Dolphins won an impressive cold-weather game 34-13 in Week 15 at New Jersey against the Jets and now at 9-5, head to upstate New York to take on the 7-7 Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins have won eight of their last nine games and control their fate in the AFC wild-card race. They can clinch their first playoff berth since 2008 (and just their second in the last seasons) with a win at Buffalo and a Denver loss in Kansas City. The Bills have not been officially eliminated from playoff contention but need to win their final two games and get a lot of help in a bid to end their 16-year postseason drought, the longest in the NFL. Miami: The Dolphins lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill in the team's Week 14 win over the Cardinals but veteran Matt Moore stepped in last week at the Jets and led them to an easy win. Moore completed 12 of 18 for 236 yards with four TD passes and one INT for a QB rating 126.2. While he won’t likely be able to replicate that performance it should be noted that the last time the Dolphins won in Buffalo (back in 2011), Moore was Miami’s starting QB and he threw two TD passes in that 30-23 win. These teams met back in Week 8 and the Dolphins came back from an 11-point deficit in the late third quarter to win, 28-25. RB Jay Ajayi had 214 of the Dolphins' 256 rushing yards that game but has not reached 80 yards rushing in any of his last six outings, averaging only 51.3 YPG (on 3.0 YPC) over his last four. Buffalo: Rex Ryan, as he usual does, promised he’d get the Bills back into the playoffs right away after he arrived before the 2015 season. However, the Bills were 8-8 last year and as noted above, the Bills would need a YUGE amount of good fortune to fulfill Ryan’s promise here in 2016. The Bills are the NFL’s top rushing team at 163.6 YPG (on 5.5 YPC), led by RB McCoy, who has 1,129 yards on 5.5 YPC with 12 TDs. However, QB Tyrod Taylor is an enigma. He hasn’t made many mistakes (14-6 TD-to-INT ratio) and is an excellent runner (520 yards on 6.3 YPC with six TDs) but the Bills rank 31st in passing at 182.6 YPG. The Bills have a big decision to make by March, when they will have to decide whether to pick up the option on a five-year, $90 million contract extension that guarantees Taylor more than $30 million over the first two seasons. Now we all know Ryan is a supposed “defensive expert” but one couldn’t tell by Buffalo’s numbers in 2016, as the Bills are in the middle-of-the-pack at 16th in yards allowed (349.2 YPG) and 14th in points allowed (22.4 PPG). The pick: History tells us that the Dolphins have lost four straight years in Buffalo, the last three times by 16, 19 and 19 points, while averaging just 9.0 PPG themselves. However, Miami is on an 8-1 SU run entering this game and the Bills are no better than 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) at home here in 2016. Take the points and make Miami an 8* play.
12-24-16	Jets +17 v. Patriots	Top	3-41	Loss	-120	90 h 40 m	Show
The set-up: New England began the season with Tom Brady on the sidelines for the first four games (you may have heard) but with two games left, the 12-2 Patriots have wrapped up the AFC East for an NFL-record eighth consecutive division title! The Patriots can now go about the bigger business of trying to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs when they host AFC East rival the New York Jets on Saturday afternoon. The Jets will limp into Foxboro 4-10 on the season and will sit out the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season (8th time in the last 10 years). NY Jets: New York has gone five straight games without scoring more than 17 points in regulation and is down to third-string QB Bryce Petty, who practiced fully Wednesday after absorbing a huge hit in last week's 34-13 drubbing by Miami. Asked about his QB situation Wednesday on a conference call with New England media, beleaguered head coach Todd Bowles said, "We had (Ryan) Fitzpatrick early on. Obviously, we didn't play great there, so we changed to Bryce until the end of the year to get a look at him. It's not even about having the right guys, it's about making plays and not turning the ball over, so we need some stability that way." Undrafted WR Robby Anderson has emerged as a favorite target of Petty with 14 catches and a pair of touchdowns on 29 targets over the past three games. RB Bilal Powell is expected to get the bulk of the playing time at RB in place of an ailing Matt Forte, who suffered a torn meniscus in his knee in Week 14 and sat out practice Wednesday while dealing with a nerve problem in his shoulder. That’s the good news though, as Powell has amassed 341 yards from scrimmage and rushed for two TDs in the past two games. The Jets D ranks 27th in points allowed (25.6 PPG) and no wonder, it owns second-fewest interceptions (seven) and sacks (23) in the NFL. New England: The Patriots are already are assured a first-round bye and hold a one-game lead over Oakland for the top overall seed in the conference. The Patriots are fresh off a 16-3 victory at reigning Super Bowl champion Denver, which extended their winning streak to five games.Tom Brady downplayed a thigh injury that limited him in practice Wednesday and he’s had a remarkable season, even for him. After returning from his four-game suspension, Brady’s thrown for 298.6 YPG with 22 TDs and just two INTs for a 109.7 QB ratio. It hasn’t seemed to matter who is healthy week-to-week in the New England receiving corps. Blount is over 1,000 yards (1,060) and leads the NFL with 15 rushing TDs, as this year’s running game is the best the Pats have had in years (117.0 YPG ranks 7th). The defense has also risen to the challenge and with two weeks to go, has allowed the fewest points in the entire NFL at 16.6 PPG. The pick: Of course, this is a “no-contest” on paper but the Patriots' toughest test during the team’s recent five-game winning streak came against the Jets in Week 12, when they rallied for a 22-17 victory with nine points in the final 7:02. The Jets also sprung a 26-20 upset of New England in Week 16 a year ago. Almost incredibly, the Jets have covered the past SEVEN games in this rivalry during this span, having lost lost by five, won by six, lost by seven, lost by one, lost by two, won by three and lost by three! Take the YUGE points and make the Jets an 8* play.
12-24-16	Titans v. Jaguars UNDER 44	Top	17-38	Loss	-115	90 h 39 m	Show
The set-up: The Titans were 3-13 last year and the Jags slightly better at 5-11. However, as the two AFC South rivals meet in Jacksonville for this Week 16 game, the 8-6 Titans are tied for the AFC South Division lead with the Texans while the Jags are 2-12 and looking for a new head coach. While the Titans got a 53-yard, game-winning FG by Ryan Succop in the final seconds to upset Kansas City 19-17 last week, the Jags lost 21-20 loss to the Texans and Gus Bradley was fired following the game. No one was surprised, as Bradley’s gone a horrific 14-48 as the Jags head coach. Doug Marrone, who coached the Buffalo Bills for two seasons going 15-17, was named interim head coach for the final two games a day later. Tennessee: The Titans wanted to play more “smash-mouth” offensive football this year and the team's good OL and the running of DeMarco Murray have provided just that. Tennessee ranks third in the league with 144.7 YPG on the ground, as Murray has 1,224 yards on 4.6 YPC with nine TDs (he’s added three TD receptions, as well).Marcus Mariota has had an excellent sophomore season, as after throwing for 2,818 yards with 19 TDs and 10 INTs as a rookie, he’s thrown for 3,327 yards with a 25-9 ratio plus there are still two regular season games remaining. The Titans need to win here to set up a AFC South showdown game at home in Week 17 with the Texans. Jacksonville: The Jags’ ninth straight loss cost embattled Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley his job last week. It was more of the same last Sunday at Houston, as the Jags blew a double-digit lead and lost 21-20. Interim head coach Marrone felt it necessary to announce that Blake Bortles, who was 12-for-28 for 92 yards with an interception last week, will continue as the team's starting QB but, like Bradley, Marrone’s days at Jacksonville may be numbered. Bortles is second in the league with 16 interceptions and his poor play is one of the main reasons the Jaguars are down from 14th (23.5) to 27th (18.6) in points per game from last season to this year. The Jaguars also rank 24th in the NFL in rushing with 97.5 YPG, ‘led’ by T.J. Yeldon with 460 yards and one score and Chris Ivory with 394 rushing yards and two TDs. The pick: The Titans are hoping to earn their first playoff berth since 2008, as Tennessee has won three straight -- all coming by six points or less -- and lead the NFL in red-zone efficiency, scoring TDs 73 percent of the time. The Titans have climbed into the playoff picture following a 1-3 start by winning seven of their last 10! Believe it or not, if the Titans win out, they'll host a playoff game. This from a team that had won a total of just five games the past two seasons. The Titans are traveling to face a division rival that just fired its head coach, which may be a tricky spot. Jacksonville’s defense is better than most think and Tennessee has managed just 38 points during its last 10 quarters. The Under is an 8* play in this one.
12-23-16	Ohio v. Troy OVER 49	Top	23-28	Win	100	73 h 37 m	Show
The set-up: The Dollar General Bowl in Mobile, Alabama features two teams that ended the season with close losses to miss out on conference championships. Ohio U. (8-5) played Western Michigan tough in the MAC title game before losing 29-23, while Troy was upset 28-24 by Georgia Southern to miss out on a share of the Sun Belt crown Both will get a chance here, to remove that bitter taste from their mouths. Ohio U: Frank Solich is in his 12th season with the Bobcats and this marks the eighth time he's led his team into a bowl game. That's quite an accomplishment considering that in Ohio U history (prior to Solich's arrival), the Bobcats had been to just two bowls. This is not a great team but Ohio U. was the MAC's best defensive team in 2016. Since allowing 56 points to Texas State in triple overtime in the season opener, the Bobcats have held every opponent to fewer than 30 points and will enter this game allowing just 22.2 2 PPG (26th in the nation) and that's after allowing those 56 points in the opener. Senior DL Tarell Basham was the MAC's Defensive Player of the Year, leading the conference with 11.5 sacks and is the school’s career leader with 29.5. Senior LB Blair Brown had a conference-high 116 tackles (13.5 for loss), and MAC Freshman of the Year Javon Hagan had 50 tackles and led the team with five forced fumbles and three interceptions. The offense averages a modest 26.5 PPG, 218.0 YPG passing and 174.8 YPG on the ground. Troy: The Trojans come in 9-3 but without a win here, the season will be considered a real disappointment. Troy was 8-1 (only loss came 30-24 against Clemson!) and entered the AP's top-25 for the first the loss at Ga. Southern, as a seven-point road favorite.Troy led the Sun Belt in scoring (34.2 PPG), passing (263.1 YPG) and total offense (439.1 YPG) with 49 touchdowns. Junior RB Jordan Chunn (1,232 yards rushing and a conference-best 13 TDs) is Troy's best 'weapon' with QB Silvers completing 64.4% for 2,951 yards with 22 TDs and nine INTs. Troy's defense allows just 22.0 PPG (23rd). The pick: These are two good defensive teams but the reasonably low over/number on the game makes the over very tempting. Ohio has not had much success in bowl games under Solich and in the team's last five bowl appearances, those finals have averaged 58.4 PPG. Troy QB Bandon Silvers can spread the field and find open receivers against a defense that did not see this style much. The Over is a 10* play.
12-23-16	Louisiana Tech -6 v. Navy	Top	48-45	Loss	-110	69 h 8 m	Show
The set-up: The 8-4 La. Tech Bulldogs of C-USA will meet 9-4 Navy (of the AAC) in the Armed Forces Bowl on Dec. 23 at Fort Worth, Texas. Both Navy and Louisiana Tech carry two-game losing streaks, including setbacks in their respective conference title games, into Friday’s game. La. Tech is playing in the school’s ninth bowl game all-time, including two straight with wins over Illinois and Arkansas St. in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Navy has been a bowl regular since 2003 under first Paul Johnson and now Ken Niumatalolo , missing only in 2011. Louisiana Tech: While Navy ranks 125th of 128 FBS teams in passing, La. Tech ranks third at 359.8 YPG. QB Ryan Higgins was named MVP of C-USA after throwing for 4,208 yards and 37 TDs against just eight interceptions for the nation's fifth-ranked scoring offense (44.0 PPG). WR Trent Taylor is second in the country in receptions (124), third in yards (1,570) and among 31 players with at least 10 receiving TDs, although he has only two in his last eight games. Junior Carlos Henderson had 52 fewer grabs (72) but nearly the same number of yards (1,406 for an average of YPC) and ranks tied for second among FBS players with 17 receiving scores. Junior RB Jarred Craft had a total of 31 yards on the ground over the last two games but gained 1,011 rushing yards with nine TDs (added 41 catches with four scores, as well). The La. Tech defense allows 32.7 PPG to rank 96th. Navy: The Midshipman have not been the same team since losing senior QB Will Worth, the nation's leader with 25 rushing TDs, early in the loss to Temple on Dec. 3. Sophomore Zach Abey has run for three scores since taking over but has thrown four interceptions in the two games in just 23 attempts. Navy ranks fourth with 310.9 YPG on the ground but I’m not sure that’s relevant with Abey, not Worth, under center. Navy averaged 41.7 PPG heading into its AAC championship game against Temple but with Worth being lost early in that game (note: slotback Toneo Gulley were injured on the same play), Navy scored just 10 points. Navy then lost 21-17 to Army the following Saturday, ending a 14-game winning streak over its biggest rival. The pick: A win in the Armed Forces Bowl would give the Navy back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in school history but it’s hard to make a strong case for the Midshipmen at this time. The Bulldogs started the season 1-3 but then went on a seven-game winning streak before losing a shocker to Southern Mississippi 39-24 in the regular-season finale. A 58-44 loss to Western Kentucky 58-44 in the C-USA title game followed but as Memphis learned Tuesday night, the Hilltoppers are a ’scoring machine!’ The Midshipmen will be playing their 14th game in 17 weeks since this season kicked off and exacerbating matters is just how to “get back up” after losing a chance at the school’s first-ever conference championship (against Temple) and the usual all-out effort against Army, losing for the first time in 15 years. The bet here says that La. Tech’s explosive passing game will riddle Navy’s weary defense. La. Tech is an 8* play.
12-22-16	Giants v. Eagles OVER 41.5	Top	19-24	Win	100	49 h 6 m	Show
The set-up: The 10-4 New York Giants can clinch a playoff spot for the first time since 2011 with a win over the 5-9 Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on Thursday. The Giants hold the top wildcard spot, two games ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) and the Green Bay Packers (8-6). The Eagles, after a 3-0 start, were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention this past Sunday with a loss at Baltimore and can now only play the role of a spoiler. NY Giants: The Giants opened 2-0 but then promptly lost three straight. However, while the Giants don’t look like a dominant team, they are definitely playing “winning football,” as they are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS over their last nine games (lone loss came 24-14 at Pittsburgh, which is on a current 5-0 SU & ATS run). Eli has had an up-and-down season but in fairness, the lack of a running game (81.2 YPG on 3.4 YPC ranks 30th of 32 teams) has made his job more difficult. Making Eli's job easier is the controversial but immensely talented Odell Beckham Jr. Beckham reeled in a one-handed gem for a TD in Sunday's 17-6 triumph over Detroit and has 85 catches for 1,173 tayrds with 10 TDs on the season. He joins John Jefferson and Randy Moss as the lone players in NFL history with at least 1,000 receiving yards and 10 TD catches in each of their first three seasons. New York’s defensive turnaround has been the real key to this season's 10 wins, as after allowing a league-high 420.3 YPG, as well as 27.6 PPG, the Giants rank third in points allowed in 2016, at 17.9 PPG (that’s a decrease of just about 10 PPG!). Philadelphia: The Eagles opened 3-0 behind rookie QB Carson Wentz’ better than expected play and a defense which allowed just 9.0 PPG in that perfect start. However, after owning a a 6-1 ratio through four games, Wentz has just six TD passes bad 12 INTs over his last 10. The Eagles enter this game having lost nine of 11 (3-8 ATS), including five in a row in which the defense has allowed 27.8 PPG. While Wentz is struggling, RB Ryan Mathews continued his hot streak at the expense of the Ravens' top-ranked defense, rushing for a season-best 128 yards on 6.4 yards a carry while collecting his fifth touchdown in six games. More good news is that Darren Sproles, who has limited to just 19 carries for 81 yards in his last five games, is expected back but after practicing on Tuesday. The pick: These teams have been going in opposite directions but it is a division game and the Eagles won’t lie down. After all, the Giants’ 28-23 Week 9 win over the Eagles halted a four-game Philadelphia winning streak in the series. Note that Eli threw two of his season-high four TD passes to Odell Beckham Jr. in that victory over Philadelphia on Nov. 6 and has tossed multiple scoring strikes in six of his last seven contests. Conversely, Philadelphia has allowed two passing scores in each of its last four games. Philly’s defense is not up to the challenge of stopping Eli and Co. and the Eagles have averaged 23.8 PPG at home in 2016. The Over is a 10* play.
12-22-16	Colorado State v. Idaho OVER 64.5	Top	50-61	Win	100	48 h 38 m	Show
The set-up: The 8-4 Idaho Vandals have been largely non-competitive in 21 seasons at the FBS level, so the program is dropping down to FCS status, beginning with the 2018 season. However, Idaho will conclude its next-to-last season as part of college football's top level by playing in a bowl game for only the third time in school-history, when it meets 7-5 Colorado State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl at Boise, Idaho. The Rams are playing in a bowl for the fourth consecutive season, the second-longest streak in school history behind a string of five in a row under Sonny Lubick from 1999-2003. Idaho: The Vandals made the decision to drop down a level after being dismissed from the Sun Belt Conference (effective after next season), as the school figured it might enjoy more success and lose less money as an FCS school. Expectations were even lower than normal at the outset of this season and after losing back-to-back September games to Washington and Washington State by a combined 115-20, it hardly looked as if Idaho was headed for its first winning season since 2009 or second in the past 17 seasons. However, head coach Paul Petrino kept the squad from crumbling and Idaho finished the regular season by winning four straight and six of its last seven. Junior QB Matt Linehan has passed for 2,803 yards and 15 TDs with 10 INTs with senior TEs Trent Cowan (46 receptions, 532 yards, six TDs) and Deon Watson (36, 555, two TDs) being his top targets. RBs Aaron Duckworth (615 yards, four TDs) and Isaiah Saunders (584 yards, six TDs) share the rushing workload for a team averaging a modest 141.3 YPG (103rd). The defense was ravaged early on by Washington and Wash. St but held three of its last four opponents to 14 points or less. Colorado State: The rams didn’t look like they were headed for a bowl at 3-4 but they won four of their last five, averaging an astonishing 47.4 PPG on 520.6 YPG over those final five games. The four victories during that closing stretch came by an average of 26.5 points! Redshirt Junior QB Nick Stevens took over when true freshman QB Collin Hill was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Stevens passed for 14 TD passes against just ONE interception over his final six games, while standout junior WR Michael Gallup finished with 70 catches for 1,164 yards with 11 TD receptions, the second-most in school history. The Rams own an excellent running game, averaging 223.2 YPG (30th), led by a trio of RBs all of whom ran for more than 500 yards. Dawkins leads with 801 yards, while Matthews (705 yards) ran for a team-high 12 scores. The pick: It wouldn’t be a stretch to say the Vandals are probably the most unlikely participant of the 80 bowl teams this season, so saying the Vandals are reveling in the bowl berth would be quite the understatement. The Idaho defense played well down the stretch but remembering the Vandals being unable to stop Washington and Washington State should give one pause that Idaho’s defense can slow a surging Colorado St. team (remember, the Rams enter having averaged 47.4 PPG on 520.6 YPG over their last five games). Meanwhile, Idaho averaged 36.1 PPG over its final seven games and CSU’s defense is hardly anything special (allows 27.8 PPG). The Over is a 10* play.
12-21-16	BYU v. Wyoming +10.5	Top	24-21	Win	100	49 h 15 m	Show
The set-up: Bronco Mendenhall left for Virginia but BYU went 8-4 under Kalani Sitake in his first-ever year as a head coach. He played fullback at BYU in the late 90s and became the first Tongan to become a collegiate football head coach. BYU will meet an old Mountain West Conference rival in Wyoming on Dec. 21 at the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego, as the Cowboys enter 8-5 after a 27-24 loss in the MWC championship game to San Diego State. BYU: The Cougars opened 2-3 in 2016 with not a single one of their first five games being decided by more than three points. BYU then went 6-1 over its final seven games (5-2 ATS). QB Taysom Hill when down in the last game with a season-ending injury for the fourth time in five years, so the Cougars will turn to sophomore Tanner Mangum. However, the good news is, he’s an experienced backup. Mangum completed 59.9 percent of his passes for 3,377 yards with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions as a freshman while replacing Hill, who missed all but the first half of last season's opener with a fractured foot. Mangum saw action in the last three games, completing 14-of-18 pass for 145 yards and two touchdowns, and appears to be less of a running threat than Hill (603 yards, eight TDs this season). One of CFB’s great storylines this year was BYU senior RB Jamaal Williams, who rushed for 1,165 and 11 TDs despite missing three of the last five games with an ankle injury. Williams rushed for 618 yards and nine scores in a three-game stretch versus West Virginia, Toledo and Michigan State this season, including a school-record five TDs and a career-high 286 yards against Toledo. BYU comes in averaging 30.0 PPG (61st) but the BYU defense has led the way in 2016, allowing 19.4 PPG (15th) on 364.3 YPG (33rd). Wyoming: Head coach Craig Bohl made a name for himself by coaching North Dakota State to three consecutive FCS titles from 2011-13 before taking on the challenge of bringing the Cowboys back to respectability. Bohl was 6-18 in his first two seasons before nearly leading Wyoming to an MWC championship, losing to San Diego State 27-24 in the conference title game Dec. 3. Bohl was named MWC Coach of the Year on Nov. 30 and the Cowboys didn't waste much time extending his contract through 2023 on Dec. 2, with athletic director Tom Burman explaining in a release: "When I hired Craig three years ago, I believed he was the best coach to turn around our football program. He has certainly delivered and the turnaround is evident in the performance of our team this season.” Sophomore QB Josh Allen (2,996 yards, 26 TD passes / 13 INTs) leads an offense which relies heavily on RB Brian Hill, who ran for 1,767 yards on 5.5 YPC with 21 TDs. Wyoming averages 37.1 PPG (22nd) and it needs to score, as the defense allows 34.8 YPG (105th) on 464.0 YPG (112th). The pick: BYU is appearing in its 12th straight bowl but hasn't won one since a 23-6 victory over San Diego State in the 2012 Poinsettia Bowl. Let’s also note that only one of the Cougars' eight victories came against a winning FBS team (9-3 Toledo), while the four-game winning streak they ride saw them outscore clubs with a combined 15-32 record 136-29, including 37-7 over FCS member Southern Utah (6-5). There is a fear that Wyoming may be somewhat drained after a tough finish. It began with a draining triple overtime loss at UNLV, then the first go-round vs. the Aztecs that went to the final play, and before the San Diego State rematch in the MWC championship game, there was an ugly 56-35 loss at New Mexico. The other side of that coin is that Wyoming has been tested and played well in that stretch, while BYU ended its season with three home games vs. Southern Utah, UMass and Utah St. Remember, BYU has played a ton of close games this season (six decided by three points or less and a seventh in OT) and this is a lot of points. Make Wyoming an 8* play
12-20-16	Memphis v. Western Kentucky -6.5	Top	31-51	Win	100	23 h 6 m	Show
The set-up: Western Kentucky (10-3) won the SBC championship game 58-44 over La. Tech and heads to its third straight bowl game (the Boca Raton Bowl) and will meet 8-4 Memphis of C-USA, which is also making a third consecutive bowl appearance. Memphis: The Tigers had a tough task replacing not only head coach Justin Fuente (who took the Va. Tech job) and QB Paxton Lynch (a first-round pick of the Denver Broncos) but they barely missed a beat behind new coach Mike Norvell and QB Riley Ferguson. Memphis won three of the last four games to improve its bowl position, including knocking off then-No. 20 Houston 48-44 in the regular-season finale. Ferguson completed 63.8% fro 3,e326 yards with 28 TDs and nine INTs. His to target was WR Miller, whoc caught 84 passes for 1,283 yards with 11 TDs. The running game does not have a standout back but three players topped 460 yards for a unit which averaged 166.9 YPG to rank 78th. The Tigers average 39.5 PPG (17th) on 461.8 YPG o(32nd) and just ask Houston how good the Tigers can be, as they rolled 555 yards of total offense in the win over the Cougars. Ferguson saved his best performance for last, passing for 409 yards with four TDs and no interceptions against Houston. Tigers freshman Tony Pollard was named the AAC's Special Teams Player of the Year after ranking third in the nation with 993 kickoff return yards and tied for third with two kickoff return TDs. Western Kentucky: The Hilltoppers closed out the season on a seven-game winning streak, capped by a 58-44 victory over Louisiana Tech in the C-USA championship game. Head coach Jeff Brohm led the Hilltoppers to their second straight C-USA championship this year but was hired by Purdue on Dec. 5 and defensive coordinator Nick Holt takes over in the interim for the bowl game. Junior Mike White, a transfer from South Florida, completed 67.4 percent of his pass attempts for 4,027 yards in earning C-USA Newcomer of the Year honors in his first season for the Hilltoppers. WR Taywon Taylor had 89 receptions for 1,586 yards and 16 TDs and fellow wideout Nicholas Norris had 73 for 1,253 yards and 13 scores. RB Anthony Wales finished with 1376 yards rushing (6.8 YPC) with 26 TDs (24 rushing). The Hilltoppers are second in the nation in scoring (45.1 PPG) on 517.4 YPG (7th). The pick: The Hilltoppers haven’t had much time off since its C-USA title-game win (played Dec. 3) and with Jeff Brohm leaving for Purdue and DC Nick Holt being elevated to head coach for this game, it might be a good thing this game is played sooner than later. Memphis could be a little flat off its upset of Houston and while the Tigers offense is very good, Western Ky’s is “as good as it gets!” The Hilltoppers averaged 52.1 PPG over their last nine contests. Lay the points and make Western Kentucky a 10* play.
12-19-16	Panthers +6.5 v. Redskins	Top	26-15	Win	100	56 h 49 m	Show
The set-up: The 5-8 Carolina Panthers, last year’s NFC champions, head to Washington Monday night to take on the 7-5-1 Redskins. Carolina is coming off a 28-16 victory over San Diego but its playoff hopes were all but ended by a disastrous two-game West Coast trip in which its defense allowed 75 points in losses at Oakland and Seattle. The Panthers would need a miracle to return to the postseason, sitting three games out of the final playoff spot in the NFC with three to play. The Redskins currently own the final wild card spot in the NFC but a loss here would drop them behind the both the 8-6 Packers and Bucs. Carolina: The Panthers have won four of their last seven games but they would have to win their final three games and receive quite a bit of help to land in the playoffs. It's a complicated, if not impossible, path to the postseason. Cam Newton has been dealing with a sore throwing shoulder that limited him in practice this week and has only 15 TD passes after tossing a career-high 35 last season, when he was the league MVP. The defense has surrendered 91 points and 1,177 yards during the team's last three games but Carolina did enter Week 15 having amassed a league-best 39 sacks. Washington: QB Kirk Cousins has delivered for a second straight season, completing 67.5% for 300.4 YPG (2nd-best) with a 27-9 ratio and 100.7 QB rating. Here at home, he owns 27-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio since last year. The Redskins were glad to have extra time because of the Monday night game. That might give linebackers Su'a Cravens (elbow) and Will Compton (knee sprain) time to recover from ailments, while special teams player Mack Brown entered the concussion protocol based on a hit last week against Philadelphia. Washington is also glad to be home after three straight on the road, where they’ve won three in a row while averaging 33.0 PPG. The pick: Washington has all the motivation but ember, the Panthers are way better than the team's 5-8 record and ran play loose with little on the line. The Panthers will remember that they handed the Redskins a 44-16 beating last season, forcing five turnovers (the Redskins suffered their worst loss of the 2015 against Carolina). The Panthers have won the past four meetings between the two teams and Cam Newton has seven TD passes and zero interceptions in three meetings versus Washington. Take the points and make Carolina a 10* play.
12-19-16	Central Michigan v. Tulsa UNDER 70	Top	10-55	Win	100	50 h 48 m	Show
The set-up: The 6-6 Central Michigan Chippewas face the 9-3 Tiulsa Golden Hurricane in the Miami Beach Bowl at Marlins Park. This marks CMU’s fourth straight bowl appearance (1-2 last three) and for Tulsa, which has the smallest undergraduate enrollment of any FBS school (about 4,600), it’s the school’s 21st bowl appearance, including its 10th since 2003. Central Michigan: The Chippewas made national news with their memorable no-time-on-the-clock, hook-and-ladder Hail Mary touchdown to upset Oklahoma State in Stillwater, Okla. back on Sept. 10. After the game, it was determined the MAC officiating crew - which later was suspended - had made a mistake by giving Central Michigan an extra untimed down with no time remaining after Oklahoma State was called for intentional grounding on fourth down. Oh well! In fact, that “win” came in very handy for Central Michigan, which lost four of its final five games, including a 26-21 heartbreaker to Eastern Michigan in its regular-season finale on a long TD pass with just 21 seconds left. Without the Oklahoma State victory, Central Michigan would be spending mid-December in chilly Mount Pleasant, Mich. instead of sunny Miami. The Chippewas are led by senior QB Cooper Rush, who has thrown for 3,299 yards and 23 TDs. WR Corey Willis is his favorite target with 1,028 yards receiving and nine TDs while Devon Spalding is the team's top rusher with 737 yards and six TDs on 131 carries despite missing two games (CMU averages a modest 119.2 YPG to rank 116th). The defense allows 28.2 PG (69th). Tulsa: Head coach Philip Montgomery, in just his second season, has guided Tulsa to an average of 522.6 YPG which ranks No. 5 in FBS nationally. Not only that, the former Baylor offensive coordinator has the Golden Hurricane on the verge of becoming the first FBS program to feature a 3,000-yard passer, two 1,000-yard rushers and two 1,000-yard receivers. Tulsa already is the just the fifth team with a 3,000-yard passer (quarterback Dane Evans with 3,044), two 1,000-yard rushers (running backs James Flanders with 1,529 and D'Angelo Brewer with 1,330) and a 1,000-yard receiver (wide receiver Keenan Lucas with 1,108). WR Josh Atkinson goes into the game needing just 73 yards in catches to hit 1,000. Tulsa averages 41.4 PPG to rank 11th and the defense allows 31.5 PPG (92nd). The pick: This will not be a low scoring game but the over/under number is so high, I’m making the Under a 10* play.
12-18-16	Bucs v. Cowboys UNDER 47	Top	20-26	Win	100	77 h 27 m	Show
The set-up: The 8-5 Tampa Bay Bucs are in Dallas on Sunday night to take on the 11-2 Cowboys, who saw their 11-game winning streak finally end last Sunday in a 10-7 loss to the Giants. The Bucs come in on a five-game winning streak, after last Sunday’s 16-11 home win over the Saints. It marks Tampa Bay's longest unbeaten run since 2002. Tampa Bay: The Bucs have been thrilled with the overall play of Jameis Winston since taking him with the No. 1 pick of the 2015 draft but the offense has struggled some under Winston during the winning streak, scoring just six TDs in the last four games. Winston has thrown for 3,364 yards through 13 games and owns a 23-12 ratio. However, he failed to pass for or run for a TD vs. the Saints, ending his streak of 28 straight games with at least one rushing or passing TD to begin his career! However, the Bucs defense bailed the offense out, holding Brees without a TD pass (picked him off three times!) and the New Orleans’ offense to just 294 total yards on 14 FDs. The Bucs have given up a league-low 12.8 PPG since Week 10 and the six total TDs scored by opponents are tied for the fewest during that span. Dallas: Rookie QB Dak Prescott is 11-2 as a starter, he's thrown for 20 TDs with only four INTs and his team has the best record in the NFC and is tied with the New England Patriots for the NFL's top mark. However, he threw as many INTs in last week’s 10-7 los at the Giants (two), as he had in the season’s first 12 games. He completed just 17 of 37 passes for 165 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions against the Giants and over Dallas’ last two games, the Cowboys have been successful on just 2 of 24 third-down conversions, while scoring just 24 points. Prescott has failed to reach 200 yards passing in each of his last three games. So, is it “Tony Romo time” yet? Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones keeps opening the door to a QB controversy on his team, but no one else seems to be biting. Surely not head coach Jason Garrett. "You can make it as simple or as complex as you want to make it," Garrett told reporters at his weekly press conference. "It's pretty simple for us: Dak's going to play quarterback as we go forward." The pick: This game has been ‘flexed’ to a Sunday night start, the second straight for the Cowboys and easily the biggest spotlight Tampa Bay has played under in quite awhile. Tampa Bay is tied with the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South but is staring at a tough close to the regular season with a trip to New Orleans and a home game against the “what have we got to lose” Carolina Panthers after the visit to Dallas. I noted above just how well the Tampa Bay defense has played lately plus the Dallas D comes in allowing 18.3 PPG (5th) on the season. Two young QBs take the field in this “big game” in “Big D.” The Under is a 10* play.
12-18-16	Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 49.5	Top	19-16	Win	100	73 h 22 m	Show
The set-up: The 10-3 Oakland Raiders travel to San Diego to take on the 5-8 Chargers. A win on Sunday and the Raiders would end a 14-year playoff drought by clinching a playoff berth for eth first time since playing in the Super Bowl following the 2002 season. The Chargers won't be part of the playoffs in 2016, missing for the third straight season and sixth time in the past seven years, plus the franchise also faces an unclear future. San Diego voters shot down a stadium proposal last month and the team moved closer to a relocation to Los Angeles on Wednesday when NFL owners unanimously approved a tenant-lease contract between the Chargers and Los Angeles Rams. The Chargers have until Jan. 15 to exercise an option to move to Los Angeles. Team president Dean Spanos has repeatedly stated he won't announce a decision until the season in over. Oakland: The Raiders lost their Week 14 Thursday night showdown in KC 21-13 to the Chiefs but remain tied for first place in the AFC West and have a two-game lead in the wild-card chase with three games to play. Times have sure changed since QB Derek Carr’s rookie season of 2014, when the Raiders opened with 10 straight losses. "Starting 0-10 was not fun. It makes these moments so awesome," Carr told reporters. "It makes these moments really cool to already have 10 wins and those things. I know for our team, our sole focus is beating the Chargers because if we don't, we're still sitting there hoping and wishing. Our focus is just going down to San Diego and trying to come out with a win." The frigid conditions in KC plus Carr’s injured right pinkie finger produced Carr’s worst performance of the season, as he was 17-of-41 for 117 yards with no TDs but also no INTs. However, he’s thrown for 3,492 yards with a 245 ratio on the year for a 96.0 QB rating. A rejuvenated running game has been a big plus, as this year’s team averages 116.2 YPG to rank 6th. The defense remains a concern, despite receiving remarkable play from standout DE Khalil Mack, ranking 30th in yards allowed (384.5 YPG) and 23rd in points allowed (24. PPG). San Diego: The Chargers have wasted another “typical” Philip Rivers season, as he’s on pace to top 4,000 passing yards for the ninth time in 10 seasons and with 27 TD passes, should reach 30 TD passes in a season for the fifth time in that span. RB Melvin Gordon was the 15th pick of the 2015 draft but flopped big time last year, gaining just 641 yards rushing without a TD. He could be the comeback p-o-y in 2016 (997 rushing yards with 12 TDs, 10 on the ground) but he was carted off the field early last week with knee and hip injuries and will not play on Sunday. The pick: Rivers keeps plugging away but he’s running out of ‘weapons’ and I don’t see this game being played out at all like the first meeting between these teams, when the Raiders won 34-31 in Week 5. Rivers has been intercepted a league-worst 17 times and was personally responsible for five turnovers in last Sunday’s loss to the Panthers, three on interceptions and two strip-sack fumbles. The Chargers have an NFL-worst 30 giveaways and Oakland leads the NFL with a plus-15 turnover margin. The Raiders are 5-1 SU on the road this year (losing at KC was their first road ‘hiccup’) and with so much on the line, figure to be tight. The Under is a 10* play.
12-18-16	Steelers -3 v. Bengals	Top	24-20	Win	100	70 h 1 m	Show
The set-up: The Pittsburgh Steelers lost four in a row (Weeks 6 through 10 ), head coach Mike Tomlin's job was in jeopardy and there was very serious talk about missing the playoffs. However, Pittsburgh responded with four straight wins and at 8-5, now lead the AFC North. The Steelers visit the 5-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, who have posted back-to-back wins but it’s a stretch to think that the Bengals will be playing past Week 17 this season. Pittsburgh: The Steelers ran roughshod over the Buffalo Bills last week, winning 27-20 and taking control of their own destiny by moving into sole possession of first place in the AFC North. Pittsburgh’s turnaround has been linked to the coaching staff’s commitment to Le'Veon Bell and the running game taking pressure off QB Ben Roethlisberger. Bell set a franchise record with 236 rushing yards against the Bills and added an additional 62 receiving yards while scoring three TDs. Bell’s topped 100 yards in all four wins, averaging 155.0 YPG plus has caught 22 balls for 203 more yards. Big Ben is still a noteworthy QB, checking in with 3,254 passing yards with 25 TDs, 11 INTs and a QB rating of 95.0. Pittsburgh's defense has also been a force during the four-game run, registering 18 sacks while allowing 50 points (12.5 per). Cincinnati: Andy Dalton failed to complete 56 percent of his passes during a three-game skid but the Cincy QB has connected on 72.9% while tossing four TDs and zero INTs in back-to-back wins over Philadelphia and Cleveland. RB Jeremy Hill went over 100 yards for only the second time this season in last week's win over Cleveland. The Cincinnati defense has done its part in Cincy’s last gasp hopes of trying to earn a playoff berth, holding its last four opponents to 12.5 PPG. The pick: The Bengals are just kidding themselves. Victories over the slumping Eagles (Philly has lost four straight and six of seven) and the NFL’s lone winless team in the Browns (0-13), is hardly anything to brag about. A.J. Green has been out with a hamstring injury and was listed as doubtful on Friday's injury report. Dalton is just an average QB without him and the Bengals have had trouble scoring all season, with or without Green (have scored 17 or fewer points in half of their last 12 games). With Bell being “unleashed,” the Steelers are a dangerous offensive team plus as noted above, the defense is back in “Steel Curtain mode.” Big Ben is 10-2 in the regular season at Cincinnati. Pittsburgh is an 8* play.
12-18-16	Titans +5.5 v. Chiefs	Top	19-17	Win	100	70 h 0 m	Show
The set-up: The 10-3 KC Chiefs moved into the control seat of the AFC West with their 21-13 victory last week over Oakland, as both teams are 10-3 but KC owns a 2-0 series sweep. It was very cold in KC for that Week 14 Thursday game and conditions are expected to similar Sunday afternoon (predictions call for temperatures in the low teens with the wind-chill factor falling into single digits), when the 7-6 Tennessee Titans come to Arrowhead Stadium. The Titans will arrive in Kansas City with their postseason chances still alive, as they share first place in the AFC South with the Houston Texans, after a 13-10 victory over Denver on Sunday in Nashville. Tennessee: QB Marcus Mariota comes off his least productive performance of the 2016 season last Sunday against Denver. He threw for only 88 yards, completing just six of 20 passes (30.0%) and an average of 4.4 yards per attempt. That hardly squares with the guy who was named the AFC's Offensive Player of the Month in November, with 11 TD passes, just two interceptions, a completion percentage of 66 percent and an average of 8.7 yards per attempt. Mariota’s having an excellent second season, throwing for 3,086 yards with 25 TDs and eight INTs for a 99.1 QB rating. He’s nicely complemented by a running game which ranks third in the NFL at 144.5 YPG (4.7 YPC), led by DeMarco Murray’s 1,135 yards on 4.5 YPC with nine TDs. The Titans defense has been susceptible against the pass (274.9 YPG ranks 31st) but outstanding against the run, ranking third in allowing just 86.6 YPG. Kansas City: The Chiefs looks like a middle-of-the-pack team on paper but they’ve come up with big plays on both sides of the ball when needed. The defense has forced a league-high 25 turnovers and is coming off a dominant effort in holding the Raiders to 244 total yards. WR Jeremy Maclin’s return to the lineup last week provided some life to the passing game and TE Travis Kelce has topped 100 receiving yards in four consecutive games, the fourth tight end in NFL history to do so. Then there is rookie WR/KR Tyreek Hill, who ranks second among rookies with nine total TDs, six receiving, one rushing, one kick return, and one punt return. Alex Smith is routinely knocked as a QB but KC ended last year’s regular season on a 10-0 run and added to a 10-3 record this year, that’s 20-3 over the team's last 23 regular season games! The pick: Kudos to KC but the Chiefs have been outgained by almost 100 YPG over their last six contests (5-1). Some wonder how KC is 10-3? Well, the Chiefs are plus-11 in TO ratio on the season and have scored seven TDs either through a defensivescore or special teams, while giving up none in return. However, Mariota does not turn the ball over much (he owns an 18-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last nine games) and that Tennessee running game could be a huge factor in bad weather. Meanwhile, Smith lacks the ability to throw downfield and take advantage of Tennessee’s poor pass defense. Note that for all its success lately, Kansas City is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. Take the points and make Tennessee an 8* play.
12-18-16	Lions +4 v. Giants	Top	6-17	Loss	-110	70 h 60 m	Show
The set-up: The 9-4 Lions are battling Seattle for the NFC’s No. 2 seed and will take on the 9-4 NY Giants, who just beat Dallas and currently sit two games behind the Cowboys in the NFC but do own a series sweep over them in 2016. The Giants are currently owners of the NFC’s No. 1 wild card spot. Detroit: The Lions have won five in a row heading into this game but only one of the team's nine wins in 2016 has come by more than seven points (six wins have come by four or less points). QB Matthew Stafford has had a strong season, completing 66.7% for 3,447 yards with 22 TDs and just seven INTs (97.8 QB rating). He reportedly suffered torn ligaments and a dislocation of the middle finger of his throwing hand in the first quarter of the Detroit’s game last Sunday against Chicago. He threw two interceptions, including a pick six, after having the finger taped and putting a glove on his hand. However, Stafford still led his club to its eighth fourth-quarter comeback victory (20-17), the most by any team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The Lions rank a modest 17th in scoring (22.7) but have scored when needed, especially late in their games. The defense has improved nicely from last year, allowing 20.6 PPG (10th), after allowing 25.0 PPG in 2015. NY Giants: The Giants kept their division title hopes alive by defeating the Cowboys 10-7 for the second time this season last Sunday night and enter this contest having won seven of their last eight games. QB Eli Manning (23-13 ratio / 87.8 QB rating has an excellent trio of WRs this season but he’s still struggled at times. He has failed to surpass 200 passing yards in each of his last three games and tossed three interceptions in that stretch, causing the two-time Super Bowl MVP to cast a critical eye on his own performance. "I've got to play better," Manning said. "Got to find completions, got to protect the football better. That's what's got to happen in these types of games.” In fairness, he’s not helped by a running game ranked 31st (78.7 YPG), with leading rusher Rashad Jennings gaining only 459 yards on the season and being limited to just 64 yards in his last two contests. However, after giving up the most yards of any team last season (420.3 YPG), as well as 27.6 PPG, the Giants D is allowing about 70 YPG less in 2016 and just 18.8 PPG, to rank 7th. The pick: The Lions have won eight of nine and the Giants seven of eight. Yes, the Lions are dome team playing in bad weather but Stafford’s had the ‘magic touch’ in 2016 and I won’t buck the Lions when they are getting points. Detroit is a 10* play.

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