Mississippi State/Auburn

Auburn is 6-3 and it's now bowl elgible. Mississippi State is just 5-4 though, so I expect it to fight tooth and nail today to also become eligible. Outright win is possible, but let's grab the points.

The Bulldogs are off a tight 31-28 loss to Arkansas, while Auburn fell 20-3 to Texas A&M.

Mississippi State has lost three straight in this series, so it'll be motivated to reverse that trend. 

The Bulldogs are led by dynamic QB Will Rogers (great name!), as he's completed nearly 75.2 percent of his passes. Auburn has struggled against the pass, which doesn't bode well facing a Mike Leach offense. 

The Tigers have been good under first-year head coach Bryan Harsin. RB Tank Bigsby is an offensive standout. 

Auburn though is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Mississippi State on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a conference road dog in the +4.5 to +6.5 points range.

The Bulldogs have so far covered as a road underdog in both such instances this season and everything points to that trend continuing today. 8* SHOW-DOWN on Mississippi State.

Wyoming/Boise State.

Wyoming if 5-4. Boise State is 5-4. The Cowboys are just 1-4 in conference, while the Broncos are 3-2. 

The Cowboys kept their bowl hopes alive with a big 31-17 home win over Colorado State. I say they keep it rolling here. QB Levi Williams had 92 passing yards and two TDs.

Boise State improved to one game over .500 last time out as well with a 40-14 road win at Fresno State, with QB Hank Bachmeier going 15 of 27 for 283 yards and a TD.

Ultimately though in this crucial game, I tihnk it'll be the Cowboys' stout defensive play which keeps them in it late (concede only 21.3 PPG).

Boise State is the better team, but I don't think by this many points. 10* PLAYBOOK on Wyoming. 

Ravens/Dolphins

Much has been made of the Raven’s ability to dumb it down this season vs poorer teams; they ARE only 3-5 against the spread. Miami is worse ATS at 3-6, which is a point to consider. After being shelled last week with favorites failing to cover, the last thing I want to do is pick another favorite, but the Ravens and Jackson are too potent and explosive, and the Dolphins’ 30th ranked defense too poor to do otherwise.

The Ravens defend poorly against the pass, but they will face a questionable Tagovailoa, with an injured throwing hand, or Brissett, who was hardly dominant last week. The Dolphins have no running game to speak about, and a struggling offensive line. Not to mention, a very high rate of turnovers.

MvP candidate Lamar Jackson is a quality passer and a top ten rusher. The Ravens’ offense has surpassed 400 yds 4 times this season, and is more than capable of the “big plays”. And don’t forget their kicker, who can add three consistently from anywhere over center.

With a damaged quarterback, the Dolphins may have to turn to the running game, and this is one area where the 23rd rated Ravens’ defense does excel.

Take the Ravens to win and, yes, cover..

UNC/Pittsburgh.

UNC needs one more win to become eligible, but I think it'll come up short on the short week. The Tar Heels had fight from behind all day in last week's upset OT win at home over Wake Forest.

Can anyone say "letdown" spot?!

Pitt on the other hand is off a 54-29 win over Duke and I believe it's superior defense will prove to be the difference-maker today. 

The bottom line here is though, that this game doesn't in fact "mean more" to the Tar Heels. If Pitt wins out, then it'll earn a spot in the ACC Title game. 

The Panthers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game as well, while the Tar Heels are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten following a SU victory.

Lay the points and expect a decisive result.

10* ACC GAME OF YEAR on Pittsburgh. 

Ball State/NIU 

NIU is bowl eligible at 6-3, while Ball State needs one more victory as it's just 5-4. I think this matters. I believe the more desperate team will find a way to victory this evening (and that hungrier tearm is definitely the Cardinals!)

NIU lost 52-47 at Kent State last time out and I think it comes in exhausted here. Ball State is off a 31-25 win at Akron, but it can't be happy with the performance as the Cardinals were a 20-point favorite in that one.

The Huskies are terrible defensively and the Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a road favorite in the -1.5 to -3.5 range.

I'm laying the points, the play here is Ball State.

Buffalo/Miami Ohio.

Buffalo is 4-5. It's gone 2-3 in conference play. They're off a 56-44 loss to Bowling Green. 

Miami Ohio is also 4-5. Both teams need two more victories to become bowl eligible. The Redhawks though are 3-2 in conference play. Off an upset 35-33 loss to Ohio, I like Miami Ohio to get back on track here in this crucial and important matchup.

The Bulls' offense revolves around RB Dylan Mcduffee, but their defense concedes 31.8 PPG. 

That's bad news facing the Redhawks, who have the 34th ranked passing attack in the country with 264 yards per game. Keep your eyes on QB Brett Gabbert, who already has 1,435 passing yards.

Buffalo's defensive issues come back to haunt it again. Lay the points, the play is Miami Ohio.

Monday Night Football pits the Bears, off three losses, vs the Steelers, winners of three in a row. As the Steelers offensive line gels and the running game gains traction, Roethlisberger’s stock is on the rise once again. Last week he passed for 266 Yds, a TD and had a 98.4 QB rate. Rookie Najee Harris has showed remarkable improvement in his first season, and had 91 yards rushing last week. The Steelers broke the 100 yds mark three times in the last three games. The Steelers have allowed 14 sacks, and have only 7 turnovers.

Last week was Rookie Justin Field’s best game, but he IS the 32nd rated QB, very inexperienced, and averaging just 123 ypg passing with 7 interceptions. The kid can run, last week for over 100 yds, but having been sacked 26 times already this season, it is probably out of self-preservation. The Bears are 6th in rushing yards, but overall their offense is as low as it gets.

The Steelers defense is solid and improving. They are very strong in pressuring the passer, sacks, controlling the run and they don’t allow a ton of points against.

The Bears’ defense has been uncharacteristically poor of late. In their 3 game skid, the Bears have allowed over 140 yds rushing per game, and had no sacks last week.

The Steelers are at home, and are on a roll. It seems it is a favorites day for me, but I believe the Steelers will win and cover.

Titans/Rams

The Rams are a 71/2 point favorite this week against the Titans. I have had my struggles this season with favorites covering, but here is one to trust. The loss of Titans’ running back Henry is inestimable, not just in replacing his yards (they can’t) but in the impact on Tannehill, the offensive line and the passing game. Without the threat of Henry, Tannehill, already sacked 24 times, will spend even more time on his butt, and a dimension of the now critical passing game is lost.

The Titans are up against a very hot QB and team in the Rams. Stafford was terrific last week, has 22 TDs against 4 interceptions, and has a connection with Cooper Kupp that more than equals the Tannehill-Brown pairing. The Rams’ offensive line is best in the league allowing just 8 sacks, and very good at blocking for the run. And let us not forget that Henderson JR. is the seventh ranked rusher in the NFL.

The Rams defense is the best in the league at sacking the QB, and good against the pass. It is not know if their huge addition, Von Miller, will play this week but it would be a huge boost.

I am sure it will take the Titans some games to adjust to their Henry-less universe. Take the Rams to win and cover against the Titans this week.

Falcons vs Saints

The Saints are down a starting QB, the Falcons, their top receiver. This may impact the Falcons more, as the Falcons are an extremely pass-centric team, and Matt Ryan has few effective targets as it is. New Orleans will start Siemien at QB. He filled in very well by any standards last week. They likely will miss Winston but the Saints are not a very pass-focused offense. They have a solid running game around Kamara, and it just got a lot better with the deadline addition of Ingram. Ingram is a former Saint, and should fit in easily and well.

This game pits the 27th and the 31st rated offenses in yards per game. With such low offensive yardage, Saints have a better record and score more points than might be expected considering these numbers. They are a very well coached team, and have the 4th ranked defense. They don’t turn the ball over very much and are proficient at causing turnovers. They are also 2nd in the league in defensive points scored, which is significant in low scoring games.

Ryan is a competent QB, but with little support from his receivers, no running game and an ineffective offensive line, he is often left hung out to dry. And while the Atlanta defends well against the pass, they have the 26th rated defense against the run.

I think the running game will be key in this match-up. Look for a solid performance from Kamara and co. and the New Orleans defense, in another low scoring game. Take the Saints to win and cover.

Mississippi State @ Arkansas

This is a big game for both teams, as each sits at 5-3. They each need one more win to become bowl eligible. However, I really do think that the home field will be a big advantage for the Razorbacks today.

Mississippi State is off a 31-17 home win over Kentucky, but I think it'll stumble here on the road. 

Arkansas State won't be lacking for motivation here obviously, as it's just 1-3 and last in the SEC West. Arkansas pulled off the upset 21-14 last year over Ole Miss as a 16.5-point dog. 

Will Rogers was 36 of 39 for Ole Miss last weekend, but I'm not expecting lightning to strike twice for him this weekend.

Arkansas comes in rested as well off its bye. The Razorbacks are 100% healthy and they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine when coming out of their bye week and playing at home.

Look for Ole Miss to stumble off last week's big win and for the rested home side to pull away down the stretch.

Liberty @ Ole Miss 

Two teams that are already bowl eligible will look to close out the regular season strong and improve their berth in the process.

Liberty is 7-2 and off a 62-17 crushing of UMass. QB Malik Willis had 307 passing yards and four TD's. 

The Rebels moved to 6-2, but they then fell flat in last week's 31-20 road loss against No. 18 Auburn. QB Matt Corral was a bright spot with 289 yards passing. 

I don't expect a heavy emphasis put on the defensive side by either club. Look for this to fly over in the latter stages. The play is the over.

Jets/Colts

The Jets were a great story in week seven. Worst knocks off first with the backup quarterback leading the way. They ought to make a movie.. White wasn’t just good; he ended with 400 passing yards and a very high pass completion rate. He was poised and conservative, with no passes over 15 yards. How will he do this week? The Colts’ pass rush is not overwhelming, with 16 sacks, and the defense has allowed 243 yds passing to date..

The Jets had huge and affirmative press this week, but was Week 8 just a one-off? This is the same Jets team that lost to the Patriots 54-13 the previous week, that has a running game of 75 yards a game, and 3.6 avg carry.i

The Colts are off a loss, with Carson Wentz in the hot seat. Wentz had his worst performance of the year, and ended the game with some key errors in judgment. He was back to last year’s habit, throwing two interceptions. It is hard to know how he will respond, but he might want to check out White’s last week performance for some ideas. Wentz has been hit an astounding 61 times this season and sacked 16 times. The Jets pass rush is improving, but they are not a force at this moment.

The Colts have the advantage of a very strong running game, with Jonathon Taylor leading the way. Taylor is also a very good pass target. Again, Wentz might want to rely more on the run, as the Jets are not effective in defending against the run.

There is a ton of pressure on Wentz to perform this week, and no guarantees as to his response. On the other side, the Colts are forewarned about White. Any win will buoy up the Jets, and they must be riding high this week. I think the Jets will cover, but don’t expect an outright win..

Giants/Chiefs

Before everything gets out of proportion, does anyone think that Mahomes will ever play as poorly as he did last week again? Even after last week’s debacle, the Chiefs still have the 3rd ranking offense. And yes they do have the fifth worst defense, but don’t forget that the Giants have the 27th rated defense AND the 20th ranked offense. So where has the Giants’ defense looked strong(er)? Not at applying pressure on the QB (29th) or QB hits (20th). They have created turnovers, but they are poor vs the run and barely average vs the pass. The Giants had 6 sacks last week, but that was not typical. Mahomes should have more protection this week, and perhaps the Chiefs will take the opportunity to try something different on Sunday, like step out with the running game.

Jones has been a middle of the road but improving QB this year, and the Giants have their star running back and 2 top receivers out this week. Don’t look for a ton of points from the Giants, even against a struggling defense.

The Chiefs are vulnerable, but I don’t think the Giants match up as a team that can exploit their weaknesses. Given his opportunity this week against the Giants, I am looking for the Mahomes and the Chiefs to bounce back. Take Kansas City to win and cover.

Cowboys/Vikings.

Sunday night football will be well worth watching this week as the high-scoring Cowboys meet the improving Vikings. The Cowboys’ big concern is whether Prescott will play, but it appears he will. Both teams are off a bye, and both had wins in week 6. The Cowboys won in a mistake-filled game against the Patriots, with Prescott airing it out for seasonal best 445 yds. Prescott has been more than impressive this year with a QB rating of 115, and 16 TDs opposed to 4 interceptions. We will see how he does against a tough Minnesota pass rush. The Cowboys balance their offense with a very potent “a 1 and a 2” punch running game.

Cousins was equally impressive in week 6, with 300 yds and 3 interceptions. Cousins has a QB rating of 105 for the season. The Vikings running game in the name of Dalvin Cook had a season-high yds total, and Cook looked in better health. The Vikings defense have a very good pass rush, causing low pass completion rates, with a very high number of sacks. Where they struggle is against the run, both in yards allowed, and average carry. This is concerning considering the Cowboys’ twin threats of Elliot and Pollard.

While the Cowboys defense do not pressure opposing quarterbacks very effectively, and give up too many passing yards, they have caused a very high total of interceptions. They are also very good this year in shutting down the run.

This is a very potent Cowboys offense that has managed to outscore any defensive miscues to this point, and their defense is much improved over last year. The Cowboys are 6-0 against the spread, and the Vikings are 3-3. I am looking for the Cowboys to go 7-0 ATS and to again win and cover.

Bengals/Jets

It would be a major upset for the Jets to cover against the a surprisingly good Bengals team, especially now with an inexperienced back up QB Mike White in the game. Last week, Burrow was impressive against a much better opponent, passing for more than 400 yds and 3 touchdowns. The Burrow to Chase connection has been a real eye-opener. Burrow’s only real negative is the number of interceptions he has thrown. The Bengals offensive line is improving, but allowed Burrow to be sack regularly in early games. The Jets’ pride is their pass rush. The Jets only hope of keeping the score down, other than Bengals complacency, is to take advantage the Bengals’ weak point, and pressure Burrow into committing more turnovers.

To cover, the Jets will have to put points on the board and that does not look promising with an offense that doesn’t rush or pass well, against a Bengals’ defense that is strong vs both. The Jets are the only team with more interceptions allowed (11) than the Bengals.

Bengals RB Mixon had an off game last week, but look for him to bounce back in a big way against the Jets.

Bengals will win and cover against the Jets.

Duke @ Wake Forest

Duke comes into this ACC Matchup with a 3-4 record. Last week, they got absolutely torched by UVA 48-0. That makes them now 0-8 their past 8 games played against opponents from this conference. On the road this year, the Blue Devils are a sad 0-3 ATS. They've also allowed 440+ yards per game from their opponents.

The Demon Deaconds come into this game with a perfect 7-0 record. They are off a huge win against Army where they dropped 70 points on the scoreboard. Dating back a few seasons, Wake Forest is a dominant 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in October. QB Sam Hartman has been unbelievable this season as well. With 19 TDs and only 3INTs, while adding 4 more TDs on the ground, Wake couldn't be more happy.

With Wake Forest having beaten UVA by 20, and Duke losing to them by 50, I expect no short of an annihilation this Saturday. Take the Demon Deacons.

Michigan @ Michigan State

Two 7-0 teams collide on Saturday afternoon. This has all the feelings of a good old fashioned "slobber knocker." I think that the team that has possession of the football last is going to come out on top, it's seriously that close.

And so, that definitely means that I'm going to grab the points and the determined home side.

One thing benefitting MSU here is it comes out of its bye week. It's had an entire week off to prepare for this one. 

These teams are very similar on both sides of the ball. Their offenses for the most part revolve around the run game. 

MSU though is 5-1 ATS in its last six here against the Wolverines, while Michigan is interestingly 0-5 ATS in its last five against the East Division.

There are more on the line that just bragging rights this season. Major implications for the College Football Playoff race and the Big Ten are on the line today.

Everything points to, at the very least, a comfortable cover for the home side. The play is MSU.

Thursday night Football pits the 6-1 Packers on the road vs the undefeated Cardinals. The Cardinals beat up on the lowly Texans last week. The Packers were not really as impressive in their win against Washington as the score might suggest. The Cardinals have faced much stiffer competition in their 7-0 run than Green Bay has faced. In addition, Green Bay is likely down their top pair of wide receivers, which was enough to drive up the line this week. The Cardinals are reasonably healthy.

On paper, the Cardinals lead the Packers in all major offensive and defensive situations, including QB.

2nd rated Murray has completed a higher % passes for more yards and more points than 6th rated Aaron Rodgers. The only advantage Rodgers has in in interceptions allowed. And a lot of experience..

Quarterbacks aside, a key to this game will be whether the Packers’ defense can handle (or not) the Cardinal’s running game. The 23rd rated defense allowed 430 total yards against Washington, and have been very poor vs the run and in the red zone for much of the season. They have 18 sacks. The Cardinals defense has been solid against the pass, at least average against the run and has 19 sacks.

I don’t think Rodgers can pull this one out of the hat; too many parts are missing and just too much competition this week. Take the Cardinals to win and cover.

Troy @ Coastal Carolina

Troy is 4-3. It's a big underdog on the road here against 6-1 Coastal Carolina. The Trojans won't be just rolling over here though.

Troy is off a confidence-building 31-28 road win over Texas State. QB Gunnar Watson was 22 of 29 passing for 182 yards and a TD in the victory.

The Chanticleers though are coming off their first loss of the season in last week's 30-27 road loss at Appalachian State. Clearly, Coastal Carolina will be looking to take out its frustrations this week on this weak Trojans defense as it looks to make an immediate return to the winners circle.

The Trojans have been decent defensively this year in conceding only 19.6 PPG, but they just allowed 28 to the Bobcats, so I believe they're going to be in trouble again here on the road.

CC QB Grayson McCall owns the sixth-highest QBR in college football at 85.8 and he's completed 77.3 percent of his passes for 1,769 yards with 15 touchdowns to a single pick.

I think these two offenses move the chains from start to finish. Look for this total to fly over before the final whistle sounds. The play is the over.

The 3-2 Saints meet up with the 2-4 Seahawks in Seattle in the wind and the rain. The Saints offense has modest passing yards and good rushing stats, but they are a big bang for the buck in the scoring department. So far this season they have been exceptional in the red zone. Quarterback Jameis Winston is 5th in the league in QB ratings with 12 TDs against 3 interceptions. His passing yards have increased dramatically each week in his last 4 starts, from 111 yards to 279 yds in their last game.

Where the Saints excel is on defense, especially against the run (3.3 yds avg, 79 yds/ game). While they may not have much of a pass rush, they defend well against the pass and in the red zone, and have 9 interceptions already.

The Seahawks, ARW have Geno Smith at QB for the next weeks, a considerable step down. Without the mobility of Wilson, Smith was sacked 5 times behind a suspect Seahawks offensive line. The Seahawks have allowed a total of 18 sacks this season already. Smith was 15 of 18 last week with a turnover, but passing yards avg. was only 3.25 yards

The Seahawks defense struggles against the run. Given the conditions on Monday night, a running game may be paramount. Collins ran for 101 yds last week, but overall the Saints have the edge, defensively and offensively. Collins is either playing injured or out at this point, so it could be Saints running back Kamara who steps out.

I like the well-rested Saints in this game. Shop around and take New Orleans to win and cover.

Colts/49ers

The Colts are on an upward trend, thumping the Texans in week 6 and winning two of three games. Carson Wentz, recovered from ankle sprains, passed for 625 yards and 4 TDs in the last two games and has allowed one interception in 6 games. He has been extremely poised considering the pressure he has faced behind the Colts’ struggling offensive line, and is turning into a big play machine. RB Jonathon Taylor is turning heads with his recent play, and rushed for 145 yds against the Texans. The 49ers are average against the rush and the game is expected to be played in the mud so watch for another big game from Taylor.

The Colts defense is strong against the run and good at creating turnovers, but they do not excel in defense against the pass, nor do they apply a lot of pressure on the passer. They face Garoppolo, who is returning from injury and has mobility issues. It would not be unfair to say Garoppolo has struggled in his last two games played. His completion rate is down, yards per attempt down. He has passed for 3 touchdowns in 2 games, and has two interceptions. The 49ers’ running game has been inconsistent, and in the bottom third of the NFL. They have had a bye week to sort out this side of the offense and the run will be important if field conditions are what is expected. They are 8th rated against the pass this year.

I see the Colts and as the team with momentum. I like Wentz’s ability to handle pressure and control the game. The running game will be important on Sunday, and Indianapolis has a real edge there. Take the Colts to cover if not win.

Detroit Lions @ LA Rams

Not only am I expecting the Rams to win today, I'm expecting them to win in absolute blowout fashion.

In a contest which I envision being completely lop-sided in nature, I'm going to suggest laying the points with confidence in what I predict will be an absolute ATS blood-bath!

The Lions are terrible. They're 0-6 and off a 34-11 home loss to the Bengals. QB Jared Goff was just 28 of 42 for 202 yards and an interception. Jamal Williams has been a bright spot for Detroit offensively, so far he has 255 yards on 69 rushes. Defensively though the Lions are horrible as well, entering allowing 28.7 PPG.

The Rams are conceding 21.2. LA QB Matt Stafford will be out to bury his former team today. Keep your eyes on Cooper Kupp, who already has 635 receiving yards this year for the Rams.

LA is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite, while Detroit is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a road underdog.

I expect LA to have no mercy here as it keeps the pedal to the metal until the final whistle. The play is LA.

Panthers/Giants

Losers of three straight, the Panthers take on the 1-5 Giants on the road. The Panthers are still missing McCaffrey and it shows. Darnold was poor last week again, completing only 17 of 41 passes with one interception. On a positive note he did finish with a very fine drive to tie the game up.

The Panthers haven’t run much since the loss of CMC, but with a sputtering pass-focused offense, this is expected to change. This would be a fine time to step it up as the Giants struggle against the run.

The Carolina defense was uncharacteristically poor in week 6 allowing 4 TDs and giving up monster yardage. Let us hope that this is not the new norm. To date they are first in pass rush and have 16 sacks.

A strong pass rush is bad news for the Giants, as their wounded offensive line has been brutal. If Darnold was poor, then Jones was worse, with 3 interceptions and a fumble. The Giants to date have an indifferent running attack.

The Giants 25th rated defense showed itself, giving up four touchdowns as well, but this is not unexpected. They are very poor against pass as well as the run.

What to expect in this matchup? Look for a better performance from the Panthers’ defense for one thing. With the amount of pressure that Carolina can bring, look for Jones to struggle again. I expect a better game form Darnold, with more protection. Take the Panthers to win and cover.

Clemson @ Pittsburgh

I like Pittsburgh to keep the foot on the gas in this one. Clemson is 4-2 and 3-1 in the ACC, most recently coming off a tight 17-14 win against Syracuse, unable to cover the large spread.

The Panthers are 5-1 and 2-0 in conference. They most recently beat Virginia Tech 28-7. 

DJ Uiagalelei passed for 181 yards and one touchdown in Clemson's win last weekend, but he now faces one of the best defenses he's ever played against.

Pittsburgh has conceded just 35 points in its past three games and it hasn’t allowed more than 100 yards rushing in those contests. 

The Panthers are also 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Conference, while the Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road dog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range.

I think Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett is the difference-maker in the end.

Lay the points, the play is on Pittsburgh.

LSU @ Ole Miss 

LSU is 4-3. It's offense has played well and it's defense hasn't. QB Max Johnson has stepped up under center with 1863 passing yards and 20 touchdowns.

That offense has been forced to play well for the Tigers to stay competitive though each week, as the defense is allowing 28.7 PPG. 

Ole Miss is on a misson to win the SEC and it'll look to take advntage of this suspect Tigers' offense. The Running Rebels average 43.7 PPG. QB Matt Corral has 1728 passing yards and 14 touchdowns while also leading the Rebels in rushing with 450 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground.

The one down fall for Ole Miss? Like its counterpart today, it's on the defensive side of the ball where the Rebels are conceding 30.2 PPG.

Look for these offenses to pile on the points quickly. This number is low, the play is the over.

Cinci @ Navy

Now 6-0 including a huge win against the Irish at South Bend, the Bearcats are looking like one of the best teams in the nation yet again this year. With 16 total TDs and only 2 INTs, QB Desmond Ridder is definitely in the MVP conversation. He's looking to build on that against a struggling Navy squad.

To be completely honest, the Midshipmen have been awful. With a 1-5 record on the season, they are a miserable 1-10 in their last 11 games dating back to last season. Let's not forget in the last meeting against Cinci, Navy failed to even get on the board in the 42-0 loss (2018.)

Expect the #2 team in the country to absolutely destroy this weak Navy team. The line might scare people off, but it won't be enough, I guarantee it. Take Cinci

Broncos/Browns

The Browns have a slew of injuries, including QB, a pair of running backs, and key pieces in the offensive line. When your leaders in passing, rushing and TDs are all out, the offense is in trouble. Not to mention a short week for Keenum to put things together. They are still 3 point favorites. Which doesn’t say much for the 3-3 Broncos, off three straight losses.

Bridgewater will start for the Broncos, but he is limping as well. He was sacked five times, and was hit well in the double figures last game. While he threw for three touchdowns, he also had three interceptions.

The highly touted Browns defense has stumbled badly two games in a row. Two stats to note; the Browns are 29th in the NFL in takeaways, and they are only averaging 2 sacks per game in their last two starts. The Broncos defense is rated at 9th which may be generous. They have been solid against the run. The Browns defense is reasonably intact, and may show up after two poor games. With an injury-weakened offensive line and a reserve quarterback, the Browns may not be putting up many points. Give Keenum at least the first half to find his feet. Take this game to go under the total in the first half.

Bills vs Titans

Off a blow-out over KC and 4 straight wins, The Bills appear to be more than a match for anyone. The Titans are 3-2, but have some key injuries, and will be banking on powerhouse Derrick Henry and the run again. How the Bills handle Henry will be a key today. They have been very good at controlling the run thus far. Last week aside, Tannehill has been very average, with low touchdown totals. The Titans offensive line has been picked apart, allowing a painful 25 sacks. Not to mention, the Bills have the best defense against the pass in the league.

Jake Allen has been effective and efficient, with talk of MVP thrown around. He has passed for 12 touchdowns, with just 2 interceptions, and has run the ball very successfully. Add to this a balanced running attack, against a Titans defense that has struggled on the ground and in the air.

This game is all Buffalo. Take the Bills to win and cover.

Seattle Seahawks/Pittsburgh Steelers 

For me, this one is simple. Seattle and Pittsburgh are both going to be trying to establish the run game today. The Seahawks especially since QB Russell Wilson went down with injury last week.

Geno Smith has always been a "game manager," and that'll again be the case today as he's thrust into the spotlight in this difficult road venue.

Pittsburgh rookie RB Najee Harris ran for a career-best 122 yards and a TD in last week's 27-19 win over the Broncos and I expect him to have another big day here against this weak Seattle defensvie front. 

The total has gone under in Pittsburgh's last eight games against the NFC and I expect that trend to continue here in the first half on Sunday night. The play is the under in the first half.

Cowboys vs Patriots

The Cowboys are 4-1 this season and 5-0 against the spread. Are the Cowboys, finally, the real thing? Dak Prescott has the Dallas offense purring along with a fine balance between pass and run. 2nd in points scored, the Cowboys have out scored the Patriots by an almost 2 to 1 margin. The Cowboys are out-rushing the Patriots by more than a 2-1 margin, and while the Patriots’ overall defense has been steady, they are only 15th in defense against the run. Dallas is far superior with success in the red zone.

New England, in victory, did not impress in Week 5. The Patriots just haven’t scored a lot of points this season. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones is inexperienced but improving, but with only 5 TDs so far. And while the Patriots have allowed 5 fewer points per game this season, Cowboys’ maligned defense has thrived is in creating turnovers. Diggs has more than an interception a game. Jones and the Patriots have been very poor at hanging on to the ball. This could be a significant factor in week 6.

The Cowboys opened at -3 ½ . The line is climbing, and for good reason. Jump on this game early and take the Cowboys to cover.

Vikings vs Panthers

Off a pair of losses, the Panthers need a win here. The big bad news for the Panthers is that McCaffrey is not, as was expected, back for the Panthers. This impacts the running game, but it also limits QB Darnold. There is no easy out from the exceptional pressure he has faced this season. The Panthers’ offensive line has not been effective. Darnold had a very poor game in week 5, but it is hard to compete with your butt on the turf. He’s had 5 turnovers in the last two games and has been sacked 14 times this season. Without McCaffrey, the Panthers offense is really sputtering. A telling stat; Carolina is only converting 38% of third down situations.

As much as the Panthers need a win, The Vikings need a road victory in week 6 for any chance of a successful season. The big good news for QB Cousins and the Vikings is that RB Dalvin Cook is returning. From a low point against the Browns and just 7 points scored, Cousins has been on something of a rebound. But will we still see the methodical and conservative approach to offense of previous weeks? Likely so..

Two very strong defenses will put their mark on this game. Both defenses have been very successful in limiting passing and rushing this season. The Vikings defense are third in the league in sacks and the Panthers just 1 back at 16. The Panthers excel at applying quick pressure on the passer. Both defenses are very good in limiting third down conversions.

This match up does not look conducive to a high points total. Take the Vikings and Panthers to go under the total.

Army @ Wisconsin

Army is 4-1 after losing to Ball State on the road by 12 points. I think the Black Knights can bounce back here though. Wisconsin enters at 2-3 after beating Illinois by 24 on the road.

But despite stumbling last week, Army still averages 34.4 PPG. QB Christian Anderson has 431 rushing yrds and five touchdowns. 

The Badgers are coming off a shutout, but note that they're just 2-8 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS road shutout victory in which they scored 21 or more points in. QB Graham Mertz has 781 passing yards, but only two passing TD's.

Wisconsin is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while the Black Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after scoring less than 20 points in their last game.

The Badgers only average 19.6 PPG, while Army averages 20.8. I have a hard time seeing Wisconsin pulling away.

Grab the points, the play is Army.

Liberty @ UL Monroe

This is a complete mismatch no matter how you look at it.

Liberty comes into this game with only the one loss (5-1) against Syracuse, but they are 17-2 in thier last 19 games dating back to last season.

Louisiana Monroe is only 2-6 in their last 6 games played at home.

The Flames have limited opponents to only 164.5 passing yards per game, while UL Monroe has given up 466 total yards per game.

Take Liberty and expect it to be one of the biggest blowouts of the day

Toledo @ Central Michigan 

Toledo comes into this game 3-3, but they've definitely looked solid. Although they don't habe the greatest record, the Rockets are a perfect 5-0 ATS in thier last 5 games played on the road. They've also absolutely destroyed Central Michigan in the past... 10-1 in thier last 11 games against them.

CMU is also 3-3 but they have gotten blown out by a not so strong LSU team and haven't looked great. The Chippewas come into this one only 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against opponents from inside the Mid-American conference.

With Toledo having more talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball and with Central Michigan only 2-4 ATS this season, give me Toledo.

Sd St @ Sj St

Have you ever heard the story of David vs. Goliath? In that story, the underdog somehow manages to win against all odds.

That's not going to be the case here today though in my opinion. SDSU is led by RB Greg Bell offensively. So far he has 94 rushes for 520 yards (5.5 yards per carry) with five TD's. 

I can't see SJSU mustering much off an offensive attack against SDSU, which concedes just 16.6 points per contest. 

The Spartans only allow 23.8 PPG, but their strength of schedule has to be questioned. 

This is one of the best offenses that SJSU has seen. And there's no question it's the best defense it's seen.

Look for SDSU to pull away for a comfortable win and cover as this one comes down the stretch. ANNIHILATION on SDSU

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Bucs are off back-to-back wins at the Patriots and over the Dolphins last weekend and I like the defending champs to keep the good times rolling again here.

With ten days off after this before a game at home against Chicago, I expect Tom Brady to take advantage of this suspect Philly secondary.

Jalen Hurts has shown plenty of promise and while he may go on to become the next Donovan McNabb, this is a huge step-up in competition for the rookie QB. I just don't trust Hurts on the national stage against the Super Bowl Champs.

I think this Bucs' defense is underrated as well and I believe it's going to have a big day here against this young Philly offense.

Lay the points and expect a blowout. GUNSLINGER on Tampa.

Appalachian State @ UL Lafayette

App State enters with fresh legs after its bye last week. Previous to that it defeated Georgia State 45-16. In that victory, the Mountaineers postd 502 yards of total offense, while limiting Georgia State to just 380, while also forcing three turnovers.

Louisiana also enters off its bye week. Previous to that it beat South Alabama 20-18. Somehow the Cajuns pulled off the victory despite allowing 387 yards and being held to just 283 of their own. 

And that's bad news here for this home side in my opinion, as the visitors are conceding just 20 PPG this season. 

The App State offense averages 35.6 PPG, led by Chase Brice, who has 1,360 passing yards with eight touchdowns and three picks.

Louisiana Lafayette averages 28.4 PPG, while allowing 22.8. Levi Lewis has seven touchdowns and just one interception. 

The Cajuns are also just 1-5 ATS in their last six at home, while App State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 following a bye. 

Let's avoid the spread here though and hammer this one on the moneyline.

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens 

The Colts are not having the season that they had hoped for so far. After losing 3 straight, they finally cracked the winning collumn in last weeks victory over the Dolphins. Indy has now seen 4 of thier last 5 games finish OVER the Total.

For thw Ravens, the've stated 3-1, undefeated since the OT loss in week 1. In last week's win, they scored 17 points themselves in the first half. I expect them to have their foot on the gas again in this one.

With the Colts needing a win and the Ravens looking to put up points right out of the gate, I believe there's no question that this game should be a hugh scoring game right from the start. Take the 1st Half OVER

Buffalo Bills @ KC Chiefs

This is an important game for both teams, but I'd say much more to the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs though enter off a big 42-30 win at Philadelphia last weekend. Previous to that they lost two tough games agasint the Ravens and Chargers. 

Buffalo has been exceptional on both sides of the ball. It averages 33.5 PPG, while allowing 11.0, but that's definitely due to the level of competition its faced so far (a 35-0 win over Houston stands out obviously.)

KC's defense has been its weak point to this point. But, I still like KC to dig deep here against a Buffalo side that's just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October.

The Chiefs would have had this game circled on the calendar, and I expect Patrick Mahomes and company to deliver.

The play is KC.

Giants vs. Cowboys

Daniel Jones and the Giants face the 3-1 Dallas Cowboys in their second straight road game. The Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Dallas. Jones is coming off his best game of the season. His pass completion % is up considerably. In Week 4, he threw for 400 yds and 2 TDs. Jones has been turn-over prone, but hasn’t shown it thus far this season. Week 5 may be the game this changes. The Cowboys defense is 2nd in takeaways, and 1st in interceptions.

The Giants aren’t healthy, and struggle against the pass and the run at the best of times. Pitted against a very balanced Cowboys’ offense will likely prove too much for the 1-3 Giants.  Zak Prescott has had a stellar start, in full recovery from his ankle injury in week 5 of last year. This will be a bit of a hallmark game. This season, he has thrown 10 TDs with only 2 interceptions. The Giants lead the league in 1st downs, and have a potent, two pronged running game as well. Dallas is 4-0 ATS this season. Oh, and when you hear about the “improved” Dallas defense, it isn’t THAT much better. They still are 2nd worst in passing yards allowed.

It won’t be a blow out, but look for the Cowboys to cover again against the Giants. Dallas to win -7.

NY Jets vs Atlanta Falcons

We're back in London in Week 5 with the Jets taking on the Falcons.

Many thought the #2 overall pick in the Draft would be a difference maker, but Zach Wilson has been the exact opposite so far. In 4 starts, Wilson only has 925 passing yards with 4TDs thrown while turning the ball over 10 times (8INTs 2Fumbles.) Not only has he been bad, but the team is even worse. Dating back to last season they've only won 3 of thier last 20 games. That's miserable.

Atlanta comes into this one 1-3 as well, but they've definitely shown some promise. Matty Ice has thrown 8TDs with 3INTs so far and the rest of the offense has been decent. Although they are still solid, the Falcons will be missing superstar WR Calvin Ridley in this one. Look for rookie Kyle Pitts and Olamide Zaccheaus to have bigger roles in this one.

Both teams are dealing with injuries and both teams aren't the best. I think this comes down to the two QB's here. Give me experience over an unconfident rookie anyday of the week. Take ATL

Michigan @ Nebraska

Michigan is going to have a letdown, but it's not going to be this weekend.

The Wolverines are 5-0, most recently coming off a 38-17 victory over Wisconsin.

Nebraska is off a 56-7 win over Northwestern.

The Wolverines won four straight at home though before hitting the road and defeating the Badgers last weekend.

I just can't see the Huskers keeping pace with this high-flying Wolerines offense though that enters averaging 40.2 PPG. QB Cade McNamara has 731 yards passing and five TD's, while RB Blake Corum has 521 rushing yards and seven major scores on the ground.

Michigan allows just 12.8 PPG, while Wisconsin concedes 15.5

Previous to last week's win, the Huskers had lost two straight. Wisconsin averages 32.2 PPG, led by Adrian Martinez who has 1,463 passing yards, six TD's and two INT's. 

Nebraska though is a poor 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Michigan faced the best rush defense in the nation last weekend and still posted over 100 yards. 

Go with the Wolverines here to pull away down the stretch.

Penn State @ Iowa

I'm going to forget about the spread here and just play the home side to win this game straight-up on the money-line.

The Nittany Lions are 5-0 and they'e coming off a 24-0 victorey over Indiana at home last time out. 

Penn State QB Sean Clifford had 178 yards passing, three TD's and an INT. 

But Iowa is now also 5-0 afrer a blowout 51-14 road victory over Maryland. QB Spencer Petras was 21 of 30 for 259 yards and three TD's. 

These teams played last year and the Hawkeyes won on the road by a score of 41-21. While this one could be a little tighter, I do expect another decisive vicory for the Hawkeyes here.

Penn State concedes just 12 PPG. Iowa though allows just 11.6.

Iowa RB Tyler Goodson is going to keep this Nittany Lions defense honest today. I don't think you can underestimate how important home-field is for Iowa this evening.

Really great value here on the home side on the money-line.

Oklahoma vs Texas

OU has started the season 5-0. That adds to their perfect 10-game winning streak dating back to last season. QB and potential heisman winner Spencer Rattler has looked excellent so far. This should be a good test but I think he has it in him. The Sooners are also a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games inside the Big 12.

The Longhorns suffered a huge loss to Arkansas in week 2. Since then, they've won 3 straight to make them 4-1. However in their last game against the TCU, they didn't look the sharpest. QB Thompson was only 12 of 22, passing for 142 yards, a touchdown and an interceptiion. That will definitely not be enough to beat the Sooners this week.

Having said that, I like Oklahoma a lot this week. It should be fun as always, but expect Spencer Rattler and the guys in Red and White to comes out on top here. Take OU ML.

LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Coming off a huge loss against the Cardinals on Sunday, LA looks to rebound against the always dangerous Seahawks. In all honesty, the Rams did not look good at all last week. The offense didn't looked their stringest and the defense seemed not like themselves.

The Seahawks are off a much needed victory against the Niners last week. Wilson didn't put up the most insane numbers, but he got the job done. This is also a revenge game for Seattle as these are the guys that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Look for Metcalf to be hungrier than ever to figure out how to beat Ramsey's seconday. 

With the Seahawks at home in primetime, I think the crowd is going to be the difference in this one. Expect a highly competitive game throughout the entire thing, but for Seattle and the 12th man to come out on top. Take the Seahawks.

Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State

Coastal Carolina is averaging 48.2 PP, which ranks second in the natoin. Its strength is its run game which ranks fifth in the nation. 

Arkansas State just gave up over 500 rushing yards in its last game. Arkansas State has scored 67 points over its last two games, but it's conceded 100. 

In fact Arkansas State currently ranks the second-worst in the FBS in allowing 45.6 PPG.

Each team's numbers are a bit skewed because of the level of competition it's faced, but regardless, we have essentially the No. 1 offense in the nation, going up against the worst defense in the country.

This one is going to get ugly fast and I simply don't see Grayson McCall and this stable of CC RB's taking the foot off the gas, even if they have a huge lead.

The Red Wolves are also just 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing 40 or more points in their previous game, while CC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine on the road. 

Lay the points, the play is Coastal Carolina.

Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers

Entering this game, the Raiders are 3-0 with significant victories against the Ravens and the Steelers. They also beat the Dolphins in a thriller last week. In each of those games, they scored at least 26 points with an average of 30ppg. The Raiders have also seen the total go OVER in 8 of their last 9 games dating back to last season against AFC opponets.

For the Chargers, they'll come in very confident after beating Mahomes and the Chiefs last week. Herbert has looked excellent so far and his top 2 WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have also looked very strong. As long as Ekeler keeps providing with his rushing and catching, the Chargers will definitely score a lot in this one. 

Last year, when these two teams played (twice of course,) both games ended with 57 points. I expect another game with a similar, if not higher number here tonight. Take the OVER. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots

I think perhaps one of the biggest public plays of the weekend will be the Tampa Bay Bucs, but I think that Mac Jones and New England will prove to be a tough opponent on Sunday night at home. 

Of course Brady wants to beat his old team badly, but his old team wants to beat him badly as well. Jones has struggled somewhat to begin the season, but he now faces a Bucs' defense which has for the most part struggled to contain teams this year. 

Brady struggled against the Rams aggressive pass rush last weekend and he'll now face a very similar attack here in his old stomping grounds as well. 

Other than the QB position, I say that New England likely has the better defense and special teams units, which makes these teams pretty much even in my books. 

Outright win? Sure, it's definitely possible. But why not grab up all these points?! New England Patriots is the play.

Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos

After the week 1 OT loss to the Raiders, the Ravens have now won two straight and are on a roll. In week two, they shocked Mahomes and the chiefs, and last week Justin Tucker set the new record for longest FG in history.In thier last 13 games against the Broncos, Baltimore is 9-4 ATS.

For the Broncos, they have surprisingly started the season 3-0. Although they are 3-0, they've played some of the worst teams in the league. QB Teddy Bridgewater will need to have the game of his life to keep up with this explosive Ravens O this Sunday.

With Denver having faced no real competition yet, I expect the Ravens to give them a run for thier money here today. Give me Baltimore.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles

For one of the few times in Mahomes' career, the Chiefs have lost two straight games. Although two doesn't seem like much, they've been that dominant with him back there that they've never lost three straight with him at QB. KC also brings in a wicked 7-1 record in thier last 8 games against teams in the NFC.

The Eagles haven't been any better than the Chiefs this season. Although they won week 1 with ease, two straight loses bring the, to 1-2 as well. They are brining in an awful 1-5 ATS in thier last 5 games against teams from the AFC. Philly is also 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.

With Mahomes having never lost 3 straight in his professional career, I don't see that happening here against the struggling Eagles. Expect a huge bounce back performance from him, Travis Kelce, Tyrrek Hill and the entire Chiefs crew here today. Take KC.

Florida @ Kentucky

Florida is good, but that loss to Bama could come back to haunt them later in the year. Although being 3-1 this season, the Gators are only 3-4 in thier last 7 games. CB Kaiir Elam will most likely play, but he might be bothered by his knee a bit this game. He's their only guy who's forced an INT this season so far.

Many may consider this Kentucky team a joke, but they are 4-0 for a reason. With wins over Mizzouri and South Carolina, the Wildcats are looking like one of their strongest groups in a long time. Dating back to last year, they've now won 6 straight games.

Florida is definitely the favorites and everyone expects them to blow UK out. But don't underestimate the Wildcats. I expect a close hard/rough game this Saturday. Give me Kentucky.

UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina

After getting dominated in week 1, UL Monroe has won two straight to get back in the bowl hunt. Although they are 2-1, they've been awful on the road. Dating back to last season, the Warhawks are a terrible 0-9 in their last 9 road games. they are also 1-8 in their last 9 games played against teams in their Conference (Sun Belt.)

Coastal Carolina has been near perfect dating back to last season, with only the one loss. After last week's 53-3 win, the Chanticleers are a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 home games. I expect QB McCall to have anothe excellent game against this weak opponent.

This is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball and the oddsmakers know it. The spread is big, but it's not big enough. Expect atleast a 40pt win for CCU.

Arkansas @ Georgia 

Off a dominant win against the Texas A&M Aggies last weekend, the Razorbacks sure aren't getting the respect that they deserve yet. Being ranked #8 is a good spot for them. But +19 against a team that's ranked 6 spots ahead of them, C'mon. If you didn't watch last weekend, Arkansas absolutely crushed A&M. 

Georgia has been excellent don't get me wrong, but 19 points is way too much. The Bulldogs are dealing with injuries all over the place too. George Pickens, one of the best WRs in America is out (as we knew,) QB JT Daniels is still dealing with a back injury, big time LB Nolan Smith is probable, but he's been hurt with one of his legs, and big TE Darnaell Washington is Questionable with a foot injury. 

Both teams come in undefeated and only one will stay that way. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Razorbacks pulled this one off, but I'll gladly take them +19. 

Houston @ Tulsa

Houston is 3-1 and Tulsa is 1-3. Off a 41-34 win over Arkansas State last week, I think the Golden Hurricane will take a step back here. The Cougars are coming off a 28-20 home win over Navy. Clayton Tune had 257 yards and a TD. Davis Brin had 355 yards, three TD's and a pick in his team's win over the Red Wolves. Houston's only conceding 16.3 PPG this year, while Tualsa is allowing 30.5. The road team has covered in eight of the past nine meetings, so I'm grabbing the points and rolling with Houston in this one.

A pair of former #1 draft picks aside, my interest in this game is “Are the Bengals for real”. To start with, here is why the Jaguars are not. This is a team that has allowed 300+ passing yard per game and has led the league in turnovers. Outside of the hype, the Jags’ rookie quarterback is only three games into a pro career and it shows. A passing % of 54 and 7 interceptions does not cut it.

In contrast, Joe Burrow has been more than steady with a 70+% pass completion rate, 7 TDs and 4 interceptions. Last week, the Bengals’ offensive line far outperformed the Steelers’. In terms of sacks, it was Bengals 4, Steelers 0.

In week three, the Jags were leading into the third quarter. Lawrence burned one in the end zone and the Jaguars folded. It is rare for the Bengals to be a favorite AND in the limelight of TNF. I am looking for them to rise to the occasion this time. Take the Bengals to win and cover.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

The bottom line is here, I simply can't see the Eagles keeping pace with Dak Prescott and this high-flying Cowboys offense. Dallas has proven it can compete in a high-scoring shootout, like its Week 1 loss in Tampa, while also grinding out a victory in a defensive affair (like last week's win at the Chargers.) Philadelphia man-handled the Falcons in Week 1, but then it looked terrible in last week's humbling home loss to the 49ers. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home in this series, while Philly is just 2-6 ATS its last eight after an ATS home loss in which it posted 15 or less points in. But, we're going to bypass the spread option here though, and instead take the Cowboys on the MONEY-LINE.

Green Bay Packers @ San Fransisco 49ers 

Things didn’t look so good for Aaron Rodgers after week 1. But he definitely showed the world that he’s not done yet after last weeks performance against the Lions.  They scored an easy 35 points and definitely could have scored more in the win. This week, Rodgers returns to his hometown and I believe he is bound to do something special yet again.

Off the win against the Eagles, the Niners are now 2-0 to start the year. Last week they didn’t score that much. But they looked strong offensively and could have put up more than they did. In week one they went way OVER the total and I expect another high scoring game.

Both teams are really good offensively and I expect a shootout in this one. Take the OVER.

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings

Off a heartbreaking OT loss to Derrick Henry and the Titans, the Seahawks fall to 1-1. Despite losing, Russell Wilson has looked dominant in the first two games of the season. Tyler Lockett has been the main target so far, but I expect DK Metcalf to make some noise here today.

Heartbreaking not only can describe the Hawks, but  the Vikings have now seen two devastating losses. Week one against the Bengals in OT, and last week they missed a make-able field goal in the final seconds against the Cards to lose by a point. That takes a lot out of a team and I expect them to get jumped on from the opening kickoff.

With both teams off a loss, this is basically a revenge game to get back on track. But that missed field goal for the Vikings is going to be too hard to come back from this week against a strong Seattle team. Take Seattle

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Off a shootout win in week 2 I’m expecting another similar game here. Kyler Murray has looked like he could put up points in his sleep so far this season. The Cards have now scored 34+ in both their first two games.

The Jags defense has looked awful so far. Giving up 37 to the Texans in week 1, and 23 to the Broncos last week. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been the greatest, but I believe that he’s going to show the world that he isn’t a bust quite yet here in this one.

The Cardinals will definitely score, it'll just be a matter if Jacksonville can keep up and I believe Lawrence is up for the task. Take the OVER.

West Virginia @ Oklahoma

The Mountaineers are now 2-1 after a 27-21 win over then No. 15-ranked Virginia Tech. 

The Sooners are off a 23-16 victory over Nebraska as 22.5 point favorites.

So far WVU is averaging 39 PPG, throwing for 271.3 and rushing for 139.7. QB Jarret Doege had 193 yards, two TD's and an INT last week. The Mountaineers have also been good defensively in conceding just 17 PPG.

The Sooners may be 3-0, but I think they'll have a fight on their hands here today. Okalahoma is averaging 45.7 PPG, while allowing 17. Spencer Rattler had 214 yards and a TD in the Sooners victory last week.

Oklahoma though is poor in this spot for bettors (3-8 ATS its last 11 after scorign 40 or more points in its previous game), while WVU has been good (5-1 ATS its last six games played in September.) 

I think the Sooners are susceptible defensively. Grab all these points, the play is West Virginia 10* BIG PLAY

Texas Tech @ Texas 

The Longhorns are 2-1, while the Red Raiders are undefeated. 

To say this is a "revenge" game though would be an understatement for the Red Raiders here, as they've lost three in a row in this series, including a 63-56 OT thriller last year. 

Texas Tech hasn't played the stiffest of competition yet, but it's passed all early tests easily. In the most recent win over FIU, QB Tyler Shough had 399 yards passing and four touchdowns. 

Texas is off a 58-0 win over Rice. The previous week the Longhorns loast 40-21 to Arkansas. 

Texas took out its frustrations on Rice and rolled up 620 yards of offense. 

The Longhorns though are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after posting a shutout win in their previous outing. 

I think his Red Raiders' offense can hang with Texas late (like last year!) Grab the points 8* SHOWDOWN

Liberty @ Syracuse

Liberty will look to keep the momentum rolling here after starting off 3-0 and coming off of a 45-17 victory over Old Dominion last weekend. Look for Malik Willis to have another big day, he was 21 of 28 for 242 yards and four touchdowns.

Syracuse is 2-1 so far and it's off a 62-24 victory over Albany. RB Sean Tucker is the featured offensive player for the Orange, he already has 367 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, while also adding seven catches for 148 yards and another receiving TD.

These have been two decent defenses, but that's been mostly due to the level of competition. Look for this one to fly well over before the final whistle sounds. 10* Play Take OVER

Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans 

Off back to back wins to open up the year, the Panthers are now one of the last 7 teams with an undefeated record. Having said that, they are battling some injuries. McCaffrey, who is going to play, is dealing with a minor calf injrury. Youngsters, Yetor Gross Matos and Troy Pride are going to miss this one though.

Off a loss to the Browns, the Texans also saw their QB Tyrod Taylor get hurt. Now, the rookie Davis Mills steps in the starting role and looks to prove himself. They looked very sharp in week 1 and I believe that they'll bounce back in a huge way this week.

Although Carolina is the better team, 8.5 points is a lot, considering Houston is the home team. I'll gladly take the points here.

Marshall @ Appalachian State

Off a tough loss to Eastern Carolina last weekend, Marshall now travels to North Carolina where they'll take on the always dangerous Mountaineers. Although they are 2-1, the Thundering Hurd are 1-2 ATS on the season, 1-4 dating back to last year. They've also lost 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog.

For Appalachian State, they've looked very sharp, despite losing a tough one to Miami. They are now a dominant 19-1 in thier last 20 games played at home. They are aksi 8-1  in their last 9 games against opponents from the Conference USA. 

Having said that, I think Marshall will be very shy/unconfident after that shocking loss last week. Expect the Mountaineers to jump all over that and make them pay. Take App State.

Detroit @ GB.

Two divisional opponents off Week 1 losses collide in Week 2.

Detroit's offense actually looked quite good in last weeks' 41-33 loss to the 49ers (especially considering the way the 49ers' held the high-flying Eagles to just 11 points on their own field on Sunday after they scored 32 in their Week 1 win at Atlanta.) Jared Goff was 38 of 57 for 338 yards.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers uncharacteristically struggled in their 38-3 season-opening loss at New Orleans (interesting though, that game was played at Jacksonville instead of New Orleans because of Hurricane Ida. Traveling to Jacksonville is tough, but especially on short notice. That was a game that completely favored the Saints. New Orleans looked poor in its loss at Carolina on Sunday.)

Rodgers though is going to benefit greatly from being in friendly confines and facing a poor Lions' defense which just conceded 41 points to San Francisco (which could only muster 19 in yesterday's win at Philadelphia.)

Look for these experienced "gun-slingers" to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The play is the over.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens

The Chiefs are 1-0 after coming from behind to knock off the Browns 33-29 at home in Week 1. The Browns had a half time lead and a ten-point lead going into the fourth-quarter, but Patrick Mahomes took over and KC now comes to Baltimore sitting at 1-0.

The Ravens on the other hand looked bad in their 33-27 OT loss at Las Vegas, giving up a huge lead late to lose in extra time.

These teams are loaded with offensive talent. Each struggled defensively in Week 1. Despite being on the road though, I say this one favors KC. The Ravens are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss, while KC is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after having 350-plus yards of offense in its previous outing.

I think Baltimore continues to struggle. Lay the points. 

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Bucs

Both teams have veteran quarterbacks. That's where the similarities stop. The Buccaneers are stacked. The Falcons are not. Tampa scored 31 against Dallas. Atlanta allowed 32 against Philadelphia. 

The Buccaneers limited Elliott and the Dallas running game in the opener. They're 6-0 ATS the last six times that they were off a game where they allowed 90 or fewer rushing yards. 

The Super Bowl champs play with some extra rest, due to their game having been played on a Thursday. The Falcons fell to 1-7 straight-up and 2-6 against the spread in their last eight September games. Last meeting was a 17-point Tampa win. Take the Bucs

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Mac Jones has lived up to what he did in college so far. Many thought he was going to be a bust, but the most accurate passer in CFB history definitely looked solid in week 1. If they can generate 393 total yards again, I guarantee that they'll score more than 16 this time.

Despite Zach Wilson looking good in his debut, the Jets lost thier opener against their old QB in Sam Darnold in week 1. Their defense wasn't the strongest as they gave up 381 yards of offense in the loss. Dating back to last season, NYJ has seen the total go OVER in 4 of thier last 6 games against oppoents from the AFC. 

I know both of these teams have rookies starting, but with the two of them off UNDER's to open the season up, I expect a tough fought high scoring battle between these guys today. Ride the OVER.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Off a "roller coaster ride" Monday Nighter in week 1, the Raiders will have to go up against one of the best, if not the best defenses in the league without thier star running back in Josh Jacobs. Vegas hasn't had much success against Pittsburgh either as they are only 1-4 in their last five games played on the road at Heinz Field.

For the Steelers, they made Josh Alllen look human and took it to Buffalo in week 1. That win made them 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in the month of September. I expect RB Najee Harris to run right through this Raiders defense that is experiencing a lot of injuries as of late.

Both off wins, both teams will be looking for that 2-0 start. But I believe that this stacked Steelers team will be too much to handle for the Raiders without Jacobs on Sunday. Take PITT.

Arizona State @ BYU

Both teams are in the Top 25. ASU is ranked in 19th, and while it's had to deal with a couple of "cream puffs" to open, it's still outscored the opposition 78-24. 

ASU QB Jayden Daniels had 175 passing yards, two TD's and two INT's in last week's win. 

BYU is off an upset 26-17 win over then No. 21 Utah in its last outing and I say it'll finally take a step back here. The difference in the end was that the Cougars forced two turnovers, while giving up none. I do like Jaylen Hall, who has five TD's and no INT's this year.

But the Sun Devils are now a clear step up in competition on both sides of the ball. ASU's superior offense will be too much for BYU to keep up to in my opinion.

Let's skip the spread, lay the price on the money line here. The play is Arizona State money line.

Arakansas State @ Washington

Off a heartbreaking loss in Week 2 against Memphis, Arkansas St falls to 1-1.  That makes them only 2-6 in their last 8 games dating back to last season. Even worse, they are only 1-7 L8 games played on the road. 

The Huskies have not looked good this season either. It's obvious that they are struggling. But, they've domianted the Sun Belt Conference in the past and I expect that to continue here. They are also 16-4 in their last 20 games played at home. 

While this will be a wet/rainy game in Washington, I believe that the bigger name school will show the country that they aren't the joke everyone thinks they are here. Also, look for TE Cade Otton to have a big game here. Take Washington.

Virginia Tech @ West Virginia

Off back-to-back wins to open up the season, the Hokies now find themselves ranked #15 in the country. Having said that, Tech is only 4-8 ATS in their L12 games played in week 3. 

WVU barely lost in week 1 against Maryland, but bounced back in a huge way last weekend with a dominant 66-0 victory. That makes them now a perfect 6-0 in their last six games at home. 

Although VT might be ranked and the better team in everyone elses opinion, the Mountaineers are absolute killers on their home field. Expect another big performance from them here. Take West Virginia.

Maryland @ Illinois

After upsetting Nebraska out of the gate, it seemed Illinois might be poised for a fast start. The Fighting Illini lost their next two games though. This is a team with a new coach essentially in a rebuilding year. The Illini are 1-5 ATS their last six games. 

The Terrapins beat West Virginia and then won their next game by a score of 62-0. No rebuilding for them. Their coach is in his third year here and they've got big plans for the season. 

In the only previous meeting, the Terrapins outgained Illinois by a 712-493 margin, crushing them 63-33. The Terrapins ran for more than 400 yards. That was in 2018 but 2021 looks like another big win. Lay the points with Maryland. 

NY Giants @ Washington

We played against the Giants in Week 1. They only scored 13 points. Washington wasn't much better. The Football Team managed just 16. Both games were comfortable under winners.

The Giants are 9-0 to the under after an ATS loss. Giants also 6-0 to the under after allowing 350 or more yards. WFT 4-0 to the under after a loss. Twenty of the last 28 meetings have produced unders. 

Two struggling offenses. Two capable defenses. A low-scoring division rivalry. Take the Under.

Ohio @ UL Lafayette

The Ragin' Cajuns are going to be difficult to score against. They were a bit hungover from the Texas loss and gave up some late points in last week's win. This week, a defense which returned 10 starters will be sure not to allow the same thing to happen. The under is 5-0 in the Ragin' Cajuns last 5 games after they passed for 280 yards in their previous game.

Ohio has gotten off to a terrible start. The Bobcats are 0-2 and they lost to the Duquesne Dukes last game. That was the first FCS win in history for the Dukes. Ohio scored only 26 points against a 1AA team which had allowed 45 the previous game. Seven of those points came when the Bobcats returned the opening kick for a TD. Without that, their score looks even worse. 

The Ragin' Cajuns are 4-0 to the under their last four Thursday games and this one adds to that. Take the Under. 

Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Thursday Night prime-time Opener between the Cowboys and the Buccaneers went well over the posted number.

The Sunday Night prime-time matchup between the Rams and the Bears also sailed over the posted number.

Now on Monday night we have a couple of high-scoring AFC teams read to battle it out and everything points to these high-scoring prime-time games continuing.

The Ravens averaged 29.3 PPG last year. The Raiders averaged 27.1. Baltimore was one of the best defensively last season in conceding only 18.9 PPG, but the Raiders were one of the worst in allowing 29.9.

The Raiders and Ravens have played over the total the last five times they've met. Expect that high-scoring streak to continue here in their first game of the 2021/22 season. The play is the over the total 10*

Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams

Two teams that were pretty good defensively last year, and inconsistent on the offensive end collide in LA tonight. 

The bottom line for this one for me though is that each starts a new quarterback in a new system and I think that despite both being veteran's, that it'll take time for both Andy Dalton of the Bears and Matthew Stafford of the Rams to form chemsitry with their respective offenses. 

Each side will be focused on establishing the run while on offense. We can expect a heavy pass rush from each defense as well.

When we consider what each of these team's game-plan will be in Week 1, we have to conclude that the under is the correct call.

Denver Broncos @ NY Giants

Teddy Bridgewater gets the nod as the starter for the Broncos week 1. Although he's been a bit shaky thoughout his career, I believe that Denver should be the right place for him. Courtland Sutton is back, and with a sharppened up defense, this Broncos team could be strong.

While the Giants picked up Kenny Golladay, they haven't shown us much yet. Last year, they finished 6-10 and I expect something similar this season. Dating back to last season. NYG is also a sad 1-7 in theur last 8 games played against teams from the AFC. 

Expect the young Broncos team to come out with fire off the Opening kickoff here. Take Denver ML.

Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts

Off a wildcard loss to theur divisional rival Rams, the Seahawks are coming back stronger than ever this season. Always dangerous Russell Wilson threw for 40+ TDs last season as well as rushing for a few. This year, look for Metcalf and Lockett to both reach the 1000 yard mark once again.

The Colts have been all over the place this offseason. Trading for Carson Wentz. Wentz then gets hurt and has to go through surgery. Not only that, but when he was at the end of his recovery he tested positive for Covid. Even through all of that, he was named starter and I expect him to be  a bit rusty in this one. Don't forget, offensvie lineman Quenton Nelson also had to undergo surgery this offseason. The Colts are also a terrible 0-7 in their L7 games played in Week 1. 

Having said all that, the Seahawks are by far the healthier team and I expect another great season from them. Look for them to involve Chris Carson a lot this season as well. Take the Seahawks +2.5 with ease.

Vanderbilt @ Colorado State

The Commodores scored only three points in their Week 1 game. That was a very disappointing loss against East Tennessee State. Vanderbilt was favored by more than 3 touchdowns. That showed just how bad Vanderbilt really is. Scoring won't be any easier this week.

The Rams were better than Vanderbilt but they weren't good either. They lost against South Dakota State, scoring only 23 points. Vanderbilt rushed for 2.7 yards per carry, CSU ran for 3.1 ypg. 

Commodores 4-0 to the Under L4 non-conference games. Rams 5-0 to the Under L5 vs. losing teams. Take the UNDER

Iowa vs Iowa State

The Hawkeyes come into this huge rivalry game off a dominating defensive performance against the Hoosiers last Saturday. Having said that, their offense wasn't at all the greatest as QB Spencer Petras only was 13-27 for 145 yards in the air.

Iowa State is also off a win. They definitely showed some room for improvement, but the duo of QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall is a force to be wreckon with. Last week, Hall made it 13 consecutive games with atleast a rushing TD and I expect that to continue here. The Cyclones are also a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 games at home.

With both teams off wins this is going to be a very tough/physcial game. The battle of Iowa starts at 4:30pmET and I expect Iowa State to edge out the red hot Hawkeyes in this one. Take Iowa State ML.

Western Kentucky @ Army

Western Kentucky comes into this game off a week 1 win against a not so good Tennessee-Martin team. The Hiltoppers may have won that game, but I expect a completely different outcome here. The Hilltoppers are only 2-9-1 ATS in their L12 games played on Saturday.

The Black Nights looked absolutely dominant in week 1 against Georgia State (as an underdog) making it look easy. Army only threw the ball 4 times total, but when you can run the ball 67 times and average 4 yards per carry it's going to be tough for any team to compete against that. Army is also a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games played at home.

Although both teams are off a win, the Black Nights looked like they could beat some of the best teams in the league with their unique play-style. Look for Army to dominate from the opening kickoff. Tale Army

Kansas @ Coastal Carolina 

What? A team from the Sun Belt laying this many points against a Big 12 team? It must be some kind of joke. That's the reaction some might have if they didn't know the real story. 

Kansas isn't just any Big 12 team. The Jayhawks are the single worst Big 12 team. Coastal Carolina isn't just any Sun Belt team. The Chanticleers are the best SBC team. They won 11 games last year and brought back 19 starters. Week 1 saw them deliver a 52-14 blowout.

The Jayhawks kept things reasonably close against Coastal Carolina the past two years. This is the first time they meet in Conway though and its going to get ugly. Lay the points with Coastal Carolina.

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Cowboys are a different team with Prescott behind center. They can trade punches with any team on offense, even the defending Super Bowl Champions.

The Buccaneers were clearly peaking at the right time in January/February. We're into September now. They can't be expected to immediately perform at the level they were. 

It's possible that one team could pull away late in the second half but I expect this game to remain close most of the way. The line is generous. Take the points with the Cowboys (1st Half)

Louisville vs. Ole Miss

The underdog came back to cover in last night's game. The Rebels will make sure it doesn't happen twice in a row. 

The Cardinals aren't a bad team. The problem is that Ole Miss is a lot better than they even realize. The Rebels were tied 42-42 in a game against Alabama last season and they return 17 starters from that team. The offense is among the best in the country and the defense will be much better than last year. 

The Rebels are 13-5 last 18, against the spread in neutral site games. Last time they opened the season at a neutral site, they beat Texas Tech 47-27. This one should play out similarly. Lay the points with Ole Miss. 

Northwestern State @ North Texas

Big class difference between these schools, as evidenced by the pointspread. North Texas has a big game at SMU next and will use this game to build confidence for that one. They haven't won at SMU since 1933 but with an experienced team, this could be the year they have a shot. Blowing out Northwestern State will help prepare for that possibility. 

Mean Green bring back 19 starters, 9 on offense, 10 on defense. Those 19 returning players began last year with a 57-31 beating of another outmatched team.

Coach Littrell is 5-0 in his games against FCS schools, winning by nearly 30 points per game. Lay the points with North Texas. 

Fresno State @ Oregon

Fans of offense are in for a treat. Fresno State averaged 32.8 ppg and 479 ypg last year. This year's offense is loaded and already scored 45 points and 538 yards against UConn its opener. 

Oregon has 9 returning offensive starters. They have an experienced QB, throwing to excellent receivers, playing behind an experienced offensive line. The Ducks scored more than 30 points in every game but one last year. 

Ducks are 6-2 to the over last eight times they faced a team with a winning record. Bulldogs are 5-1 to the over last six times they were off an ATS win. Go with the Over. 

Penn State @ Wisconsin

Two quality teams here, making this a very big game. Wisconsin has plans to win the West. Penn State hopes to challenge Ohio State in the East. The Nittany Lions outgained Big Ten opponents by +102 yards per game last season and they're going to be better this year. 

Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS their last four and 6-1 ATS their last seven in September.

Badgers are 1-4 ATS last five overall, 0-4 ATS last four Big Ten games. 

Wisconsin is always tough but Penn State has still won the last four meetings. Three were decided by 7 or less. Grab the points with Penn St.

Old Dominion Monarchs @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons

The Monarchs haven't played a game since 2019 and in that season, they were an awful 1-11, including losing each of their last 10. Because of their year off, they have lost some key players and will lack experience out there this campaign. Even the coach is new and hasn't coached a single NCAAFB game as HC in his life. Entering this game against the Demon Deacons,  the Monarchs are a sad 1-5 ATS in their L6 week 1 games. Expect another dreadful year from there guys.

Wake Forest is bringing back 20 of thier 22 starters from last season, including every offensive starter. Although they ended the season 4-5, they beat teams like Virginia Tech on the road when they were ranked #19th in the country. Dating back to 2019, the Demon Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home in their last 6 games. This year I expect a much stronger group of guys with much more experience to bring home a bowl game. 

With Wake Forest as the much better team, I expect a blowout here in North Carolina. -32 is a lot, but this one should be easier than people think. Take the Demon Deacons!

East Carolina vs. Appalachian State

The Mountaineers are loaded on both sides of the ball. Appalachian State averaged better than 34 points last season, as well as more than 450 yards. Many of the skill players that put up those numbers are back. The secondary was already the best in the Sun Belt and the Mountaineers bring back 10 defensive starters. 

The Pirates are a bad defensive team. They will have trouble stopping the balanced Mountaineer attack. Thursday night football has not been kind to ECU. The Pirates are 5-12 ATS their last 17 Thursday games. They are also 4-11 ATS their last 15 outside of their own conference. 

The Mountaineers are better on both sides of the ball. They won't be stopped in this one. Lay the points with Appalachian State. 

UTEP Miners @ New Mexico State Aggies

Although having a rough 3-5 2020 campaign, the Miners have high expectations for this season. With every offensive starter returning, they'll have all the chemistry in the world. Dating back to last season, UTEP is 4-1 ATS thier L5 games AND, going back even further, they are 4-2 SU in their L6 games played in August. In the past, Texas El Paso has owned this series as they are a dominant 8-3 the past 11 games against the Aggies.

New Mexico State is coming off a 2020 where they played 0 games. They did play 2 spring games this year though and that might of helped a little bit. But the Aggies are returning just 3 of 22 starters from 2019 and I expect that to be a problem this season. In the 2 games this spring QB Jonah Johnson only threw for 358 yards, with 1TD and 3INTs. They did have some success running the ball but I believe that UTEP will be able to shut that down for most of the game. NMSU is also a sad 0-6 in their last 6 season openers.

Having said all that, the Miners are the far better side and has played with each other for a long time. I expect a dominant win here for them. Take UTEP with ease.

The set-up: What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. Obviously for most it would be "offense." No question about it, these two QB's were once a couple of the most prolific in the league. Both offensively and defensively, these teams are pretty evenly matched. With two whole weeks to prepare and scheme though, I think these defenses are the ones that will benefit the most. 

The pick: This is a big game for both teams. The Bucs want to become the first team to win a Super Bowl on their own field. Brady wants to win another Super Bowl to add to his legacy. The Chiefs are trying to become the first team to repeat in 16 years. These teams met in Tampa in Week 12 and the Chiefs won that game 27-24. But note that KC took the foot off the gas in that one, allowing 14 fourth-quarter points. Brady took advantage of a suspect Green Bay defense, but he already struggled once against KC this season and I expect that to happen again here. In my opinion, this one sets up as a defensive "chess match," not a "shootout." 

This a 9* play on the UNDER Chiefs/Bucs.

The set-up: I played on the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship and I play on the Bucs in the NFC Conference Championship. These teams are similar in many respects, but I think that the Chiefs are the better overall team through all three phases. Better QB and offense. Equal defense and better special teams. Yes, Tom Brady has a plethora of experience at this level, and while they've looked very good to reach this point, team chemistry and this most elite level is in question in my opinion. Not so for Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and this deep Chiefs offense. 

The pick: This will truly be a passing of the torch moment for the NFL. I'm not going to break down individual stats, because I'm not basing this pick entirely on stats. As I said, these teams have similar numbers. They're really good in almost every department. Honestly, it wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for either team to win this game straight up, but as I also mentioned the intangibles that KC brings to the table here, and along with Reid, who is a master when he has a week or more to prepare for a game. I repsect Brady and I think the Bucs are for sure the best team in the NFC.

The is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs.

The set-up: Whether Patrick Mahomes plays or not, I think the Chiefs are deep and talented enough to pull off a victory here at home over the Bills. Buffalo is now definitely in unchartered territory. With Josh Allen under center, this Bills team has a shot at competing with any team in the league. Buffalo's weakness this year is definitely on the defensive side of the ball though and I think that'll be its downfall finally here in this difficult road venue.

The pick: The Chiefs have had lapses in concentration this year (lost at home to the Raiders), but overall the reason they eclipsed their team season win total for an eighth straight year was because of an improved defense. KC is loaded with offensive and defensive talent and I like Andy Reid to have a masterful plan cooked up here to deal with the potential of Mahomes being sidelined. The game of Football is about more than just one player obviously and in this case, I think that the defending champs still have more than enough pieces in place to pull off another victory and advance to the Super Bowl. I'm laying the points!

The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the KC Chiefs.

The set-up: Is Aaron Rodgers the better QB in this matchup? At this point of their careers, I'd say that's the case. That said, on any given night, clearly Tom Brady has enough left in the tank to beat any team or person on the planet. This game isn't going to be decided though by Brady and Rodgers. Night in and night out, we almost always know what we can expect from these two legends. I think each will be on top of his game. For me, this one is going to be decided by defense, special teams and the Bucs superior run game. The Rams ran out of gas last weekend, but the Bucs come to town full of energy and on a mission. 

The pick: Note as well that the Packers are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after allowing 20 points or less in a SU/ATS home victory in their last outing. I think the Bucs can control this game through all three phases and while I do expect an outright victory, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. 

The is an 8* ROUT on the Bucs.

The set-up: This is a big game for two legendary QB's. Drew Brees is reportedly retiring at the end of the season. The Saints won both games over Tampa Bay in the regular season, so Tom Brady will definitely be out for some final revenge here now that the playoffs are here. I think that both Brady and Brees are going to be the main focal points in tomorrow's summaries, as I'm expecting an old fashioned shootout in New Orleans on Sunday night. 

The pick: Note as well that Tampa has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 30 or more points in a SU/ATS road victory in its last outing, while the Saints have seen the total go "over" the number in 14 of their last 21 after allowing ten or less points in a SU/ATS victory in their last game. Considering the circumstances listed above, I do indeed feel this number is a little low.

This is an 8* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the OVER Bucs/Saints.

The set-up: The Browns played to a high-scoring victory on the road in Pittsburgh, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time producing that same energy here in this difficult road venue. The Browns played terrible defensively last time out and the last thing they'll want to do here in my estimation, is to turn this into another "track meet" and try to hang with Patrick Mahomes and the defending champs on their own field. That's never going to work. It worked against Pittsburgh, but if the Browns are going to pull off another unlikely upset, they'll have to run the ball first while on offense, while hoping to win the field position battle as well. 

The pick: KC has an underrated defensive unit this year. It's been burned a few times, but overall the Chiefs once again exceeded their season win total and that was due in large part to an improved defensive unit. I'll point out as well that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in 11 of its last 17 road games after scoring 40 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing. From my calculations, this number is indeed a tad high.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Browns/Chiefs.

The set-up: The Ravens finally got over the hump in Tennessee in their Wildcard matchup, revenging last year's Playoff loss, as well as a regular season setback. The Ravens have been consistently inconsistent all season though and while the managed the win and cover on the road last time out, I think they'll have a much more difficult time trying to do that a second time. The Bills have improved dramatically on the defensive side of the ball and this Ravens' offense is suddenly struggling to put points on the board. 

The pick: These teams are similar in many respects, but the way that these two starting QB's have played this season, I'm giving the big nod to Josh Allen over LaMar Jackson. Allen has been getting the job done in evvery respect this year and I expect him to step up here at home and deliver. Instead of laying the points though, I'm going to recommend playing the home side on the very reasonable money-line price. 

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Bills MONEY-LINE.

The set-up: Green Bay will look to get out and put the Rams' talented defense on its heels from the get-go. Green Bay will dial up the pressure and try to get an early lead and LA is going to then be forced to play from behind. The Rams are intimately familiar with the Seahawks, but not quite at all with Green Bay. In fact, these teams haven't even played against each other since 2018. Green Bay was 7-1 at home SU and 5-3 ATS. The Packers guaranteed home field advantage with a resounding 35-16 win at Chicago, facing a stiff Bears defense, very similar to this Rams' unit. From a situational standpoint, in my opinion this one definitely sets up as more of a "shootout" than a "chess match." 

The pick: I'll point out as well that LA has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" (has now played to four straight "unders" after beating the Hawks last weekend), while Green Bay has seen the total eclipse the number in 14 of its last 21 home games after scoring 30 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing, while also playing with two weeks off. This number is low in my opinion.

This is an 8* SPECIAL TOTAL on the OVER Rams/Packers.

The set-up: What more can be said about these two teams which literally hasn't been said a million times at this point by every talking head and so called expert out there? The strengths and weaknesses and cast of characters, including coaches, is well known even to casual College Football fans. These teams are both really similar as well as far as their numbers. Frankly, it wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win and cover this contest. I'm not here to give you individual player breakdowns, as I think that's meaningless at this point. I'm here to tell you why these two teams are going to play to a lower-scoring game, instead of a higher-scoring one.

The pick: The extra time off between games is going to have a bigger detrimental effect on these offenses in my opinion. This can still be a higher-scoring game, and stay "under" this sky-high total, and that's exactly what I'm expecting. These are two of the best defenses that each of these offenses has seen all year and I expect those units to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is too high.

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER OSU/Bama.