The set-up: This total has dropped since opening and I think the value has definitely now swung to the over. Two teams which hate each other collide on Monday night and I’m expecting more of a wide open offensive affair than a lower-scoring battle. The Saints are 11-2 and are now in top spot in the NFC after LA lost to the Bears last week. New Orleans owns the tie-breaker against the Rams and with a chance to further cement, I expect veteran Drew Brees to be “on point” tonight. And as one of 6-7 teams, Carolina is only one-half game back of the Vikings for the second wild-card berth, so the home side still has everything to play for here as well. From a “situational” stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up a shootout.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans has seen the total go “over” the number in ten of its last 13 when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 50 points, while Carolina has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a low, play the “over.” 

10*

The set-up: Nick Foles is back under center for the Eagles and with nothing to lose except another game, I like the defending champs to give the Rams everything they can handle this weekend. Philly lost 29-23 in OT to Dallas last weekend, while the Rams look very susceptible after their poor 15-6 road loss in Chicago. The Eagles only average 21.6 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by allowing 22.7. The Rams average 32.7 PPG, but they allow 24.1. 

The pick: After their red hot start, the Rams appear to be running out of gas. Especially RB Todd Gurley. With the offense becoming more one-dimensional than ever, LA could struggle to post the same offensive efficiency down the stretch. Take it for what you will as well, but the Eagles are still 4-2 ATS in their last six on the road. I’m grabbing all those points!

10* play

The set-up: This one is simple for me, it comes down to motivation. The Hawks missed the playoffs last year, but with a win today they’ll punch their ticket back to the promised land. Seattle comes in on top form with four straight wins. Seattle’s defense is back in top form as evidenced by last Monday’s 21-7 home win over the Vikes, holding Minnesota to just 276 total yards. The 49ers look poised for a letdown here after their upset 20-14 win over the Broncos last weekend. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Seattle is a solid 3-1-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

8* play

The set-up: If these two teams could be given a “do over” for the 2018/19 season, clearly each of them would take it. These clubs have struggled at times to put points on the board, but I think the overall conditions point to more of a “shootout” in this one finally. Washington comes in off a humbling 40-16 loss to the Giants and it’ll be eager to reverse its fortunes here. Josh Johnson is the QB in Washington now as he took over for Mark Sanchez last weekend and threw for 200 yards and a TD. The Jags are just 4-9 and while they were blown out by Tennessee last weekend, QB Cody Kessler was a bright spot with 250 yards and a TD.

The pick: Both teams will be opening up the playbook, so from a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a high-scoring game in my opinion. Take it for what you will as well, but the Skins have seen the total go “over” the number in eight of their last 12 as a road underdog, while the Jags have seen the total go “over” in seven of its last 11 non-conference games. This number is low, play the “over.” 

8* play

The set-up: I like the Bears to take care of business at home today. The Packers kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a 34-20 win over hapless Atlanta last weekend, while Chicago enters off a hard-fought and impressive 15-6 home win over the high-flying Rams. If LA couldn’t move the ball last week, I have a hard time seeing Aaron Rodgers and his patchwork unit posting much production either. Overall the Packers average 24.2 PPG and they allow 23.6. The Bears are averaging 27.6 PPG and they’re allowing just 19. That ranks third in the league. The Packers are simply too one-dimensional to fool this talented Bears defense. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay is already only 1-3 ATS this year as a road underdog, while Chicago is a perfect 5-0 ATS at home as a favorite. With a chance to end the Packers’ season, look for the home side to lay the hammer down. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: Granted Cleveland’s looked a lot better this year, but it has nothing to play for whatsoever and with an extremely satisfying 26-20 home win over Carolina last weekend, I do indeed believe this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Cleveland. The Browns average only 22.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. Denver had won three in a row before a lacklustre 20-14 loss at San Francisco last weekend. But overall the Broncos average 22.3 PPG, while allowing just 21.7.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is still only 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a road underdog of seven points or less, while never is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a loss by six points or less. “Home cooking” is the difference here. Lay the points.

10*

The set-up: Arizona State closed the year strong under new head coach Herm Edwards, but I think the Sun Devils will struggle to keep pace with the Bulldogs. Fresno State was 11-2 overall, while ASU was 7-5. Arizona State has a couple of big time playmakers in QB’ Manny Wilkins and RB Eno Benjamin, but it lacks depth on the offensive side. Fresno State QB Marcus McMaryion is a difference maker here. McMaryion finished by completing 70 percent of his passes to go along with a sharp 25/3 TD:INT. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ASU is only 4-5 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in its last game, while Fresno State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. Lay the points, expect a rout.

8* play

The set-up: Tulane was 6-6 and UL Lafayette finished 7-6. The Ragin Cajuns lost 30-19 to App State in the Sun Belt title game, but I think Lafayette will keep this one close. These teams played in 2016 and the Green Wave came from behind to post the 41-39 OT win. The Green Wave though average just 25.7 PPG. Tulane struggles against the pass defensively as well, allowing 265.2 YPG. UL Lafayette QB Andre Nunez has 2,136 passing yards and a 64.4 percent completion percentage. Overall Lafayette allows 33.7 PPG, but the unit catches a big break here facing the Green Wave’s impotent offensive attack. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UL Lafayette is 4-0 ATS in its last four after a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games, while Tulane is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more weeks of rest. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Clearly this is a big game for both NFC playoff hopefuls. The Vikes are in rebound mode after falling 24-10 in New England last weekend, while the Hawks are rolling now, most recently destroying the 49ers 43-16. The Vikes average 22.9 PPG and they allow 22.5. Note though that Kirk Cousins has the Vikes’ offense ranked sixth in the league with 276.3 YPG. The Seahawks are averaging 26.6 PPG behind the league’s No. 1 rushing offense. The defense is allowing 21.6 PPG. From a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota has seen the total go “over” the number in four of six on the road this year, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in 11 of its last 16 as a home favorite. This number is low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: The Rams posted a tough 30-16 road win in Detroit last weekend they’ll have their hands full again this week on Sunday night at Soldier Field. Chicago is out to atone for a 30-27 OT loss to New York last weekend, so from a situational stand point, I definitely feel this one sets up as more of a lower-scoring defensive battle, where field position and time of possession are key to victory.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “under” the number in four of six on the road already this year, while Chicago has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten as a home dog. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

10*

The set-up: The Cards come in off a 20-17 road upset at Green Bay. Both Arizona and Detroit have nothing to play for in this game except for pride, but after their 30-16 home loss to the Rams, I simply feel this one “means more” to the Lions. Overall Detroit is averaging 21.2 PPG and allowing 26.3. The Cardinals are averaging only 14.6 PPG and allowing 25.8.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 4-12-2 ATS in in its last 18 following a SU win and 0-4-1 ATS i its last five after posting more than 150 yards in its previous game, while Detroit is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with losing records and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 following a double-digit loss at home. Lay the points.

8*

The set-up: Both teams have been hot. Baltimore features the league’s No. 1 defense and the Chiefs have the league’s No. 1 offense. Something has to give on Sunday. While KC didn’t look very good on the defensive side of the ball in last week’s 40-33 win at Oakland, the Chiefs have been a “different” team in front of the home town crowd. The Ravens’ achilles heel has been their offensive play, especially on the road. It’s difficult to win on the road at any time, but after last week’s 26-16 win at Atlanta, a predictable letdown is imminent for the visitors in my opinion.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while KC is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as a home favorite of seven points or less. Lay the points.

8*

The set-up: The Colts play with revenge here after falling 37-34 in OT at home to the Texans in Week 4. Houston’s been almost unbeatable since that game, but Andrew Luck and Indianapolis has made great strides this year on both sides of the ball. The Colts were stymied 6-0 last week vs. Jacksonville, but there’s no reason not to think that Luck and company can’t bounce back and return to their normal form. The Texans continue to find ways to win, but I think they’ll have their hands full today vs. a Colts team that will be desperate for an upset and to avenge the earlier setback. These teams are very evenly matched.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last five in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Houston is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after two straight SU home victories. Grab the points.

10*

The set-up: Navy dominated this match-up for over a decade, but the Army Golden Knights come into this year’s match-up having won two straight. Army is 9-2 in 2018 and enters on top form, having won seven straight. Navy is just 3-9 and it’s gone only 1-8 in its last nine overall. The Midshipmen live for this game though and I’m expecting the underdog to push the pace from start to finish. This is the first time since 2002 that Navy will finish with a losing record, so it’ll have one last shot at redemption here as it looks to play spoiler on Army’s great overall campaign to this point. With both teams pushing the pace, from a situational stand point, there’s no doubt this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. 

The pick: Note as well though that Navy has seen the total go “over” the number in three of its last four as a neutral field underdog, while Army has seen the total go “over” in 14 of its last 20 as a favorite. Play the “over.”

10* play

The set-up: Jacksonville plays with revenge. It’s also looking to put a nail in the coffin to the Titans season with a victory here. The Jags slowed won the Colts in last week’s 6-0 win. They came up short at home in September vs. the Titans, falling 9-6, but with nothing to lose, I think the visitors will once again keep it competitive this week. The Titans could barely get past the Jets last week at home (26-22) and I think they’ll have their hands full today against this revenge minded and much improved Jags’ defensive unit. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Jacksonville is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six in revenging an extremely close loss of three points or less, while Tennessee is just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 as a favorite (including 0-2 ATS this season.) Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The winner of this divisional contest will remain on the fringes of the wild card spot, while the other will officially be eliminated from contention. With so much on the line, I’m expecting each side to open up the playbook The Redskins lost starting QB Alex Smith to injury and Colt McCoy was unable to to lead Washington to a win on Thanksgiving Day, eventually falling 31-23 to the Cowboys. Philadelphia’s stagnant offense will have its opportunities today against a Redskins unit which allowed Dallas to score three of its four TD’s by covering at least 16 yards. The Eagles kept their slim hopes alive in last week’s come from behind 25-22 win over the Giants and I think they carry that confidence and momentum over here.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington has seen the total go “over” the numb run eight of its last 11 as a road underdog, while Philadelphia has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 15 vs. the division. This number is low, play the “over.”

 10* play

The set-up: These teams are very evenly matched. The Steelers missed RB LeVeon Bell last week and they’re going to again today as well. After winning three straight, the Steelers came up short in Denver last weekend. LA though enters off a blowout win over the Cardinals and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that veteran pivot Phillip Rivers can’t carry that momentum over here facing this Steelers unit which struggled last weekend. 

The pick: Note as well that LA is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 3-1 ATS in its last four following a two game home stand, while Pittsburgh is just 3-4 ATS as a favorite this season. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” 

The set-up: The Vikes remain in the NFC playoff picture after last weeks win over the Packers. Kirk Cousins had a big game with 342 passing yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. I think the veteran carries that momentum over here. Overall the Vikes are averaging 24.1 points and allowing 22.1. New England is averaging 27.9 PPG and it’s allowing 22.6. The Pats are getting healthier and I think they’ll put the foot on the gas from start to finish.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota has seen the total go “over” the total in four of five on the road already this year, while the Patriots have seen the total go “over” in 13 of its last 17 vs. teams with winning records. This number is low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: This game means more to Atlanta. The Falcons are 4-7 and they’ll need to run the table for a chance at a Wild card spot. The Ravens need wins as well, but at 6-5 it’s a little less urgent. Baltimore comes in off a 34-17 home win over Oakland on Sunday, but QB Lamar Jackson looked pretty pedestrian by going 14 of 25 for 178 yards and two first half INT’s. The Ravens have the best defense in the league as far as yards conceded, but Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan won’t be going down without a fight today. He has 3,683 passing yards with 24 TD’s and only five INT’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 2-3 ATS in its last five on the road, while ATL is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a road loss. Home cooking is the difference here, play on the Falcons.

The set-up: The Broncos can smell the blood in the water, as the Bengals move forward without starting QB Andy Dalton. These two teams are moving in opposite directions anyways, with Denver having won two straight and Cincinnati having dropped three straight. From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt this one sets up fantastic for the visitors.

The pick: But take it for what you will as well that the Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six following a SU loss of more than 14 points, while the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight in this series. Look for the visitors to take full advantage of the “rudder-less” home side. 

The set-up: These two teams are very familiar with each other. Last year Boise State won this exact game vs. this exact opponent 17-14 and I believe we’ll see a much bigger final discrepancy this time around. Fresno State comes in at 10-2 after last week’s 31-13 win over San Jon Jose State. Fresno State averages 36.3 PPG and it allows 13.5. Boise State comes in on top form, having won seven straight, most recently a 33-24 win over No. 21 ranked Utah State last weekend to advance to the Championship game. Overall the Broncos are averaging 37 PPG and allowing 22.3. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boise State is already 4-2 ATS at home this year. These teams actually played at Albertsons Stadium earlier this season and the Broncos came out on top 24-17. This is a horrible match-up for Fresno State and I think that trend continues. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: It’s the AAC Championship between Memphis and UCF. The Tigers finished 8-4 overall, while the Knights come in at 11-0. UCF may be without its starting QB McKenzie Milton, but I think that Darriel Mack Jr. is “the next man up,” and will fill in seamlessly. The Tigers will be relying on the legs of RB Darrell Henderson, who had 24 carries for 178 yards and two TD’s in last week’s high-scoring 52-31 win over Houston. 

The pick: Mack is out to prove himself and he will be given the green light to air it out all night long. Memphis will be pushing the pace as well as it tries to pull off the upset. When you add it all up, this one has high-scoring “shootout” written all over it.

8* play

The set-up: Its the inaugural Sun Belt Conference title game and a trip to the New Orleans Bowl is at stake. Am I call for an outright upset? I am not. However, I do think the Ragin Cajuns can keep this one a lot more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Louisiana Lafayette won its final three games to earn its spot here, while App State defeated Troy State to advance. Lafayette averages 33.7 PPG. Clearly it’s not going to be a cake walk as the Mountaineers have won four straight since a 34-14 setback to Georgia Southern. App State gets the job done with a strong run, averaging 242.5 YPG, while racking up 27 TDs. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but UL Lafayette is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a record above the .500 mark. Both will be looking to establish the run. This one is going to be much tighter than what Las Vegas wants us to think. grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: It’s the PAC 12 Championship and I’m expecting a blowout. The No. 17 Utah Utes face the No. 16 Washington Huskies. The Utes enter off a 35-27 win over BYU, while the Huskies earned a 28-15 road victory over a tough WSU team. The Huskies have dominated this series for a long time, going 11-1 the last 12, including a convincing 21-7 road victory back on September 15th. Utah had to come from behind to beat BYU last weekend and overall it’s averaging 30.8 PPG and allowing 19.2. Washington averages 28 PPG and it allows only 16.5. Veteran QB Jake Browning plays in his final PAC 12 game of his career and I believe his veteran experience in this situation can not be overlooked. The Utes are without RB Zack Moss and QB Tyler Huntley as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after two or more SU victories, while Washington is still 5-2 ATS in its last seen as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: After an 0-3 start, Houston comes out of its bye week having won six straight. I think the time off will ultimately throw a “monkey wrench” into the chemistry and I look for the hungry Titans to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Houston holds a two game lead over both Tennessee and Indianapolis, so this is a crucial game for the visitors. Tennessee destroyed the Patriots, but it couldn’t keep that momentum going in a 28-10 loss to the Colts last weekend. But with their season essentially on the line, I think the Titans bounce back this week.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tennessee is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 vs. teams with winning records, while Houston is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive victories. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: For all intents and purposes, this is a “must win” game for both teams. The Packers are just 4-5 and they’ve lost three of their last four after a terrible loss to Seattle last weekend. The only hope Green Bay has is with QB Aaron Rodgers, so expect the visitors air it out early and often. The Vikes come in off a brutal loss to the Bears last weekend and they’ll also be hungry to reverse their recent offensive struggles with a break out performance. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a “shootout” in my opinion. 

The pick: Note as well that Green Bay has seen the total go “over” the number in six of its last eight “dome” games, while Minnesota has seen the total go “over” in four of its last five as a home fav of three points or less. This number is low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: It’s a really big game for each side and because of that, I’m expecting more of a “defensive battle,” where field position is paramount in the end. Seattle is in a tough division with the Rams, but it’s keeping pace after last week’s win over the Packers. The Panthers though have lost two in a row and they’ll be risking life and limb to come up with a win today. The overall situation definitely points to a “chess match.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Hawks have seen the total go “under” the number in four of their last five road games when the total in the contest is set between 45.5 and 49 points, while Carolina has seen the total go “under” in three of its last four after two or more SU losses. This number is high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: Simply feel that the Bengals are the “hungrier” team here after back-to-back losses. The Browns however enter off a highly satisfying 28-16 home win over the Eagles. A predictable letdown is imminent for the visitors in my opinion. The Browns’ bye week won’t help them here, in fact I believe it’ll be a negative. Overall the Browns are averaging 21.8 PPG and allowing 26.3. The Bengals are averaging 25.6 points and allowing 31.2. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Cleveland is still a brutal 4-10 ATS against the division and a terrible 6-13 ATS in its last 19 on the road, while Cincinnati is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with losing records. Lay the points, expect a rout.

Analysis posted shortly!

The set-up: This is an important game for both teams. The winner plays in the Big West title game. Utah State has won ten in a row and it plays with revenge after falling in this contest last year. The Aggies have a difficult task ahead of them and they were almost caught “looking ahead” to this one with a “close call” against Colorado State last weekend. Utah State has its eyes on a big bowl game, but it’ll have to take it one game at a time: “Survive and advance. Just like in the NCAA Tournament,” Utah State head coach Matt Wells said after the game, according to the Associated Press, via ESPN.com. “You know, I’m going to celebrate after a win like this. I’m going to let the players celebrate all the way until Monday. We have a special season going.”

Boise State looked decent offensively against a weak New Mexico defense last week, but the Broncos looked great defensively, holding the Lobos to only 14 points.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Utah State has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last six vs. teams with winning records, while Boise State has seen the total go “under” in four of five already this year after two or more consecutive SU victories. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Arizona State lost 31-29 in Oregon last weekend and with that setback, it’s now out of contention for the Pac 12 championship. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Arizona on the other hand desperately needs a victory to become eligible. After last week’s humbling 69-28 loss to WSU, I look for the home side to make the most of this one. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after allowing 67 or more points in its previous outing in a loss, while ASU is only 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. Grab the points.

The set-up: UCLA looks primed for a letdown here after it beat rival USC last weekend. Stanford smashed Oregon State last Saturday to become eligible, but I look for the Cardinal to keep the foot on the gas to end the the regular season. Stanford QB KJ Costello has thrown for over 300 yards in four of his last five games. Last week he had 342 passing yards and four TD’s. Defensively the Cardinal looked good as well, holding the Beavers to just 17 points. UCLA got a huge game from RB Joshua Kelley last week with 289 rushing yards and two TD’s, but QB Wilton Speight looked pretty ordinary, finishing with 166 passing yards and 1:1 TD:INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCLA is 2-6 ATS in its last eight at home while Stanford is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. teams with losing records. I don’t think Kelley will rush for nearly 300 yards again this week and because of that, I look for the Bruins to suffer another letdown. Lay the points.

The set-up: The SEC and the ACC collide on Saturday afternoon. The Gators enter off a satisfying 63-10 win over Idaho, while Florida State enters off a confidence building 22-21 home win over Boston College. FSU won this game 38-22 last year. Florida averages 33.9 PPG and it allows 21. Florida’s bowl berth will not be affected with a win or loss today. FSU though is 5-6 and it’ll be desperate for a win today. The Eagles are allowing 30.6 PPG this year, while averaging only 22.6. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Florida is just 2-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while FSU is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games. Grab the points.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams, as the winner will go on to lay in the Big Ten Title game next weekend. The Wolverines enter off a 31-20 home win over Indiana, while Ohio State surveyed a 52-51 OT win in Maryland. Michigan has lost six straight in this series, but the Wolverines’ dominating defense this year is going to be the difference in my opinion. Michigan allows only 13.5 PPG, while averaging 26.6. Ohio State is averaging 41.6 PPG and allowing 24.6. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Ohio State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after scoring more than 40 in its previous game, while Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 following an ATS loss. I look for the Wolverines to finally get the monkey off their back. Lay the points.

The set-up: The winner of this game will play in the Pac 12 Championship. In a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. Washington always has a chance with QB Jake Browning under center. He’s played WSU three times over his career already and outscored it 131-41 combined. WSU has the highest-scoring offenses in the league, but the Huskies can match pace. Plus Washington’s defense is stout and it’ll be able to slow down the “Air Raid” at the end of the day.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 6-4 ATS in its last ten Pac 12 road games, while WSU is only 2-4 ATS in its last six a conference home fav in the +2.5 to +6.5 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: This is an important game for both teams and that fact alone is the reason why I predict a high-scoring shootout. The Sooners will be playing in the Big 12 Championship Game next week no matter what, but clearly Oklahoma would like to win out with the hopes of somehow making it into the Playoff Championship. WVU needs to win this game and have Texas lose for its opportunity to play in the Conference championship and while the deck is stacked against them, clearly the Mountaineers are going to leave everything they have on the field on Seniors night. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a high-scoring game in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oklahoma has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last ten as a road favorite, while WVU has seen the total go “over” in five of its last eight as an underdog. This number is low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: Texas needs a win here to punch its ticket to the Big 12 Championship game and whether QB Sam Ehlinger plays or not, I think the Longhorns find a way to get the job done here. Texas is averaging 32.4 PPG and it’s allowing 25.9. The Jayhawks are averaging 24.5 PPG and allowing 30.5. 

The pick: Additionally note that the Longhorns are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five road conference games a favorite in the -14 to -17 points range, while Kansas is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with winning records. Lay the points.

The set-up: This is a great “situational” play. Atlanta can’t sit back and hope for the Saints to make the first mistake today. The Falcons’ season has been de-railed by injury, but veteran QB Matt Ryan will be given the green light to air the ball out early and often. The Saints only need two more victories to earn a first round bye. Clearly Drew Brees is going to have the foot on the gas here from start to finish this weekend.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last five after two or more SU losses, while New Orleans has seen the total go “over” in 14 of its last 22 at home. This number is low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: Ole Miss still needs one more win to become eligible. Clearly this game means “more” to the Rebels than to the 7-4 Bulldogs. Mississippi State looks primed for a letdown though after winning three of four, including a satisfying beatdown of Arkansas most recently. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Mississippi State is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Mississippi is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog in the 10.5 to 14 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Bears have won four in a row and they enter off an epic 25-20 win at home over the Vikes last Sunday night. Can anyone say natural letdown spot? The Lions are out of the playoff picture yet, but with another loss they would be. Last week Detroit rallied for a quality 20-19 home win over the Panthers and I think the home side carries that momentum over here on the “short week.” 

The pick: Note as well that the Detroit plays with revenge after falling 34-22 in Chicago in early November. And take it for what you will, but Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog. Grab the points.

The set-up: WMU lost starting QB Jon Wassink three games ago and the Broncos have lost three straight. Both teams are already bowl eligible. NIU had won six straight before a tough 13-7 home loss to Miami Ohio last weekend. The Huskies were already eligible and they ran into a buzz saw in the Redhawks, who still need one more win to qualify, but who were fighting for their lives in that one and on a win streak of their own. The Huskies are averaging only 19.8 PPG, but they’re allowing just 20.3. The Broncos are averaging 33.6 PPG and they’re allowing 34.5. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while NIU is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: Outright upset? Clearly not out of the question. Minnesota most recently won 24-9 at home over Detroit two weeks ago and I think it has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. Chicago looks primed for a letdown here as well after its 34-22 win over Detroit last weekend. Overall the Vikes are averaging 24.6 PPG and they’re allowing 22.7. The Bears are averaging 29.9 PPG and they’re allowing 19.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Chicago is just 8-18-1 ATS in its last 27 after allowing less than 90 rushing yards, while Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six coming off a win in which it held its opponent under ten points and following its bye. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: The Broncos come in out of their bye hungry as they’ve lost two straight. The Chargers though could be a bit complacent here after their big win over the Raiders last week. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Denver is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more SU/ATS losses, while LA is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 at home and only 9-10 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. I think LA has a letdown here after last weeks win, while Denver comes in focused after its bye. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Both teams come in on win streaks, but in this important divisional battle, I’m expecting more of a defensive affair. The Titans enter off a confidence building 34-10 rout of the Patriots, looking very impressive defensively. The Colts have won three straight, but I think Luck and company will have their hands full with this under-the-radar Titans’ defense.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tennessee has seen the total go “under” the number in its last four “dome” games, while Indianapolis has seen the total go “under” in four of its last five home games when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 49.5. This number is high, play the “under.” 

8* play

The set-up: Carolina was clobbered 52-21 in Pittsburgh last weekend and I think it’ll have its hands full with a hungry Lions team that enters off a 34-22 road loss in Chicago. Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for the Lions after Carolina posted the 27-24 road win last year. Overall the Panthers are averaging 26.8 points and allowing 25.8. Detroit is averaging 22.4 points and allowing 27.1. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Carolina is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and just 4-6 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with losing records, while the Lions are still 10-6 ATS in their last 16 at home. Grab the points.

8* play

The set-up: Arizona State has a chance to represent the South division of the Pac 12 with a win today, but Oregon will be doing everything in its power to prevent that. ASU will be going bowling for a second straight season though win or lose. QB Manny Wilkins has 2,449 yards, 16 TD’s and four INT’s. The Sun Devils defense took a hit this week with LB Merlin Roberson suspended after last week’s game against UCLA for a dirty hit. The Ducks are 6-4, but a couple more victories will elevate their bowl berth. QB Justin Herbert is the difference maker for me in this particular matchup though. Herbert has 2,621 passing yards and 25 TD’s thus far. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ASU is just 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Oregon is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite in the same points range. Lay the points.

10* play

The set-up: This is a big game, as the winner will claim a share of second place in the conference. Iowa State is 6-3 and it’ll secure at least a fourth-place finish in the Big 12 with a win. The Cyclones are averaging 34.4 PPG during their five-game win streak. Texas avoided a three-game losing streak by besting Texas Tech 41-34 last weekend. QB Sam Ehlinger was sharp with 312 yards and a career high four TD passes and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here in this crucial game in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Texas is 12-5-2 ATS in its last 19 vs. teams with a record above .500. The Longhorns secondary catches a break this week facing the run heavy Cyclones. I have hard time seeing Iowa State matching pace down the stretch. Lay the points.

8* play

The set-up: Outright victory? Of course not. UMass saw a two game win streak snapped in a loss to BYU, while Georgia tries to stay focused over a two-game non-conference stretch before the SEC Championship game. The Minute-Men do feature offensive talent as well, including WR Andy Isabella, who had two TD catches in a triple OT win over Liberty on Nov. 3rd. 

The pick: It’s a classic trap game for the Bulldogs and I believe they fall right in. Note that Georgia is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with losing records, while interestingly, UMass is 7-0 ATS in its last seven vs. the SEC. I’m grabbing the points.

 8* play

The set-up: It’s the No. 13 Syracuse Orange vs. the No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish from Yankee Stadium in New York on Saturday and in my opinion, this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Orange enter off a high-scoring 54-23 victory over Louisville, while the Irish come in off a 42-13 home beatdown of FSU. Overall Syracuse is averaging 44.4 PPG and allowing 27.6. Notre Dame needs to win today and next week against USC and it’ll be going to the College Football playoff. Overall the Irish average 34.5 PPG and they concede only 18.7. 

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Syracuse has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine road games after scoring 52 points or more in a victory in its previous outing. The neutral site affair helps turn this into a lower-scoring “under.”

8* play

The set-up: I’m clearly not calling for an outright upset, but I do definitely expect the visiting side to keep this one more competitive than what this line would suggest. Mississippi State went blow for blow with Alabama last Saturday but fell 24-0. The Bulldogs looked “ok” defensively, but overall it was a humbling loss. Arkansas nearly upset LSU last Saturday, as QB Ty Storey went for 200 yards and two TD’s. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arkansas is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 off a loss against a conference rival, while Mississippi State is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: SMU in first place in the West Division of the American with a 4-2 overall record, while Memphis just 3-3. When these teams played last year, it was the Tigers that destroyed the Mustangs 66-45 at home. Memphis has struggled against teams like Missouri and UCF, but it enters off back to back blowout wins (47-21 over Tulsa and 59-41 over East Carolina.) So far the Tigers are averaging 531.9 YPG. SMU has won two straight as well, but like its counterpart today, defense has been the issue all year. SMU’ QB Ben Hicks has a sharp 16/4 TD:INT, but I still think the Mustangs will struggle keeping pace with the now surging Tigers.

The pick: I think Memphis lays the hammer down here despite reaching the six win plateau last weekend. SMU needs one more victory, but it’ll have to wait one more weekend to try and get it. Lay the points.

The set-up: FAU comes in off an upset 35-14 victory over WKU, while North Texas suffered an upset loss in a 34-31 setback to Old Dominion. Note that this is a revenge game for the Mean Green after FAU posted the 69-31 home win over UNT last year. Despite last weeks win though, the Owls are still averaging only 31.1 PPG, while allowing 31.3. And despite last week’s loss, the Mean Green are still averaging 37.2 PPG and allowing 20.3. 

The pick: Note that UNT is 4-1 at home this year and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after allowing more than 280 yards passing in its previous game, while FAU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points.

10* play

The play: For all intents and purposes, this is a “do or die” game for both teams. Green Bay kept its hopes alive with a 31-12 home win last weekend, while Seattle came up just short in a 36-31 setback to the Rams on Sunday. The Packers won’t be just sitting back on their heels and looking for the Hawks to make the first mistake. Green Bay is just 2-2 on the road this year and it’ll have to do what it does best and that’s give the ball to QB Aaron Rodgers and let him go to work. The Hawks looked terrible defensive last week against the “gun-slinging” Rams’ QB and I think the defense is going to have its hands full here as well. 

The pick: Note that Green Bay has seen the total go “over” in five of six against conference opponents this year and in its last six as a road dog of three points or less, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten following a divisional contest. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: Toledo enters off a 38-15 road loss to Illinois last Wednesday, while Kent State comes in off a 48-14 loss to Buffalo on the road last Tuesday. Toledo has won three in a row in the series, including a 38-7 victory at home last year. Toledo is averaging 38.6 PPG and it’s allowing 31.5. QB Mitchel Guadagni has 1,053 passing yards and 13 TD’s, while also adding 423 on he ground and another four TD’s. Kent Tate is averaging 23.3 points and it’s allowing 35.6. QB Woody Barrett has 1,932 passing yards with ten TD’s and eight INT’s with another 422 rushing yards and six TD’s on the ground.

The play: Note that Toledo has seen the total go “over” the number in two of its last three as a favorite, while Kent State has seen the total go “over” in eight of its last 14 at home. Both teams hungry for a win. This number is a low, play the “over.” 

The set-up: Buffalo is 9-1 and it’s won five straight. The Bulls have never opened a season 9-1 before and if they win today, they’ll clinch the division. However, I think the hungry Bobcats will battle hard and find a way to defend home turf. Previous to last week’s tough 30-28 loss to Miami Ohio, Ohio has been on fire. The Bobcats ran into an equally as hungry side in the Redhawks and they just didn’t have enough on the road. A little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion though.

The pick: Note that Ohio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records and 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival. Home field is the difference. Play on Ohio.

10* play

The set-up: WMU is already bowl eligible, but since losing QB Jon Wassink to injury, the Broncos have struggled on both sides of the ball. It appears the team has packed it in with just a few games remaining. The Cardinals will need to run the board to become eligible and while that’s likely not going to happen with an injury to their starting QB as well, the home side certainly won’t going down without a fight tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is already 2-4 ATS this year against teams with losing records, while Ball State is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Grab the points and expect a competitive battle.

The set-up: Clearly these are two teams that would take a “mulligan” on the season if given the chance. The Giants come out of their bye week looking to avoid a 1-8 start, while the 49ers enter at 2-7. San Francisco won’t be going down quietly either, it enter off a confidence building 34-3 win over Oakland. Each team has plenty of issues on both sides of the ball and up and down the line, but from a “situational” stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up as a “shoot-out.” 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in its last two following its bye week, while San Fran has seen the total go over in five of its last eight as a favorite. This number is low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: Eagles are winning and the Cowboys are losing. Dak Prescott and Dallas won’t go down without a fight here though. The Eagles have won three straight, while the Cowboys have dropped tow in a row. In last week’s 28-14 loss to Tennessee, newly acquired WR Amari Cooper had 58 yards and a TD. He’ll bring some depth to the passing game, which will in turn help out Ezekiel Elliot and the ground game. QB Dak Prescott had 248 yards and two TD passes in last week’s loss. The Eagles come in “rusty” here out of their bye in my opinion. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philly is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 vs. division opponents, while Dallas is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” 

The set-up: Divisional battles are always the most important. The Hawks enter desperate as they fell 25-17 at home to the Chargers last week, likely getting caught “looking ahead” to this one. The Rams though look ripe for the picking in my estimation after they suffered their first loss of the season in a 45-35 setback to the Saints last Sunday. LA’s defense has been exposed and I think the veteran Russell Wilson will be able to take advantage.

The pick: This is an in-season revenge game for Seattle as well after LA edged it at home earlier in the year. Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Redskins are still in the drivers seat for the NFC East division lead, but the Eagles are hot on their heels and they’ll be looking to bounce back here after a poor 38-14 home loss to Atlanta most recently. Tampa offers the perfect opponent to get untracked against, as they enter off a listless 42-28 road loss to Carolina. Tampa has been productive offensively so far this tar, but the Redskins are allowing just 21.5 PPG this season. Additionally note that the Bucs have the worst defense in the league, allowing 34.4 PPG.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is already 4-1 ATS this year as an underdog, while Tampa is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Falcons opened 1-4, but they’ve since clawed their way back to a 4-4 record with four straight wins. Last week ATL won 36-14 in Washington. Matt Ryan and company have been playing at an extremely high level for weeks now and winning on the road is never easy. This does indeed set up as a letdown spot for the Falcons finally. Thankfully the ATL defense faces a Browns offense averaging only 20.7 PPG. Cleveland’s been decent defensively this season and that the last thing the home side can do is to turn this into a “track meet” and expect to hand with the high-flying Falcons.

The pick: Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of its last ten home games as an underdog in the 3.5 to seven points range. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: It’s essentially do or die for the Lions today. Detroit comes in off back to back losses and despite sending receiver Golden Tate to Philly, I think Matt Stafford and company will give the home side everything it can handle. The Bears have two in a row, but I’ll caution in reading too much into those victories, as it came against the lowly Jets and Bills. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is already 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following two or more SU victories. Grab the points.

The set-up: Oregon State enters off a 38-21 loss at home to USC, while Stanford comes in desperate, having lost two straight and four of five, most recently a tight 27-23 setback at Washington last weekend. Oregon State is averaging 417.1 YPG on offense, but it’s very weak defensively, allowing 262.3 YPG through the air and 274.8 YPG on the ground. Stanford is allowing 266.3 YPG through the air and it’s averaging 26.1 PPG overall. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Cardinal are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games after two or more consecutive SU/ATS setbacks. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: Auburn enters off a confidence building 28-24 home win over No. 20 Texas A&M on Saturday, while Georgia looks primed for a bit of a letdown here after clinching the SEC East title and a spot in the SEC Championship Game after beating No. 9 Kentucky 34-17 at home last week. This is a revenge game as well for Auburn after Georgia won 27-7 in the SEC title game on December 2nd, 2017. The Tigers enter averaging 28.3 PPG, while allowing 17.3. The Bulldogs enter averaging 38.1 PPG and allowing 16.4. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Auburn is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games as an underdog of two TD’s or more. I’m banking on a competitive affair. Grab the points.

The set-up: It’s the “Bedlam Series” this weekend and the Sooners wine this game on the road by a score of 62-52. I don’t think we’ll see such a high-scoring shootout this time around, but I do expect a similar final discrepancy in score once it’s all said and done. Oklahoma State comes in off a 35-31 road loss to Baylor, while Oklahoma enters off a 51-46 road victory over Texas Tech. Oklahoma State is averaging 38.3 PPG and it’s allowing 29.9. Oklahoma is averaging 49.1 PPG and it’s allowing 27.9. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Oklahoma is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records, while Oklahoma State is interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight after posting more than 450 total yards in its previous game. Also note that the road team is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series. Grab the points.

At 3:30pmET, my selection is one Michigan/Rutgers to finish OVER the total. As one of the lowest totals on the board, I believe that this game gives everyone great value on the OVER. Michigan may even enough to score higher than the total themselves as they average 37 PPG this season so far. The last time the Wolverines played in HighPoint.com Stadium, they scored a total of 78 points. Look for another high scoring game. Take the OVER.

The set-up: Wisconsin enters off a 31-17 win over Rutgers, while Penn State comes in dejected after a humbling 42-7 road loss at No. 5 Michigan last Saturday. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I’m banking on a much tighter battle than what this spread would indicate. Wisconsin is averaging 31 PPG and it’s allowing 20.9. QB Alex Hornibrook has 1,343 yards with an 11/8 TD:INT. Penn State is averaging 37.2 PPG and it’s allowing 24.4. QB Trace McSorely has 1,711 passing yards and a 12/5 TD:INT. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Penn State is just 2-13-2 ATS in its last 17 following a SU loss and 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven after scoring less than 20 points in its previous game, while Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. teams with winning home records. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

10* MSU

The set-up: Ohio State comes in off a tough 36-31 home win over Nebraska and I think it’ll have its hands full here as well in this difficult road venue. Michigan State enters off a 24-3 win over Maryland. This is a big time revenge game as well for the Spartans, as Ohio State has taken two straight in the series, including a 48-3 victory last November. Ohio State is averaging 42.2 PPG and it’s allowing 23.8, while MSU is averaging 23.4 PPG, while allowing just 19. 

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Ohio State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a two games or more unbeaten streak and in which it’s a road fav in the -3 to -10 points range, while MSU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing three points or less in its previous contest. This one has the all the makings of whichever team that has its hands on the ball last is going to come out on top. Grab the points.

The set-up: Fresno State is 8-1 and 5-0 in MWC play, while Boise State is 7-2 and 4-1 in conference action. It’s a huge game for both teams. The Bulldogs have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball, but not by much. The Broncos sit only a game back of Utah, who just lost its starting QB last week. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor in this one.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boise State is 3-0 ATS in its last three as an underdog. In a contest which I look to be decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.

The set-up: Will struggling Louisville win this one outright? Of course not. I’m not suggesting that whatsoever. The Cardinals are coming off a humbling loss to the Clemson Tigers, but they’ll be eager to atone for that blunder for head coach Bobby Petrino. Clearly Syracuse is the better team, but in my opinion this sets up as a “letdown” spot in some small way after big wins over Wake Forest, NC State and UNC.

The play: Take it for what you will as well, but Syracuse is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. teams with losing records and just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 on the road. Look for Louisville to open up the playbook and keep this one competitive late. Grab the points.

Bonus: The set-up: Fresno State is 8-1 and 5-0 in MWC play, while Boise State is 7-2 and 4-1 in conference action. It’s a huge game for both teams. The Bulldogs have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball, but not by much. The Broncos sit only a game back of Utah, who just lost its starting QB last week. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor in this one.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boise State is 3-0 ATS in its last three as an underdog. In a contest which I look to be decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points.

The set-up: Both teams come in rolling. Carolina enters off three straight wins, most recently a 42-28 victory over Tampa Bay, while Pittsburgh has won four straight, most recently a 23-16 win over Baltimore. These teams are very similar, with dynamic and capable QB’s who each have plenty of weapons to utilize. But Newton has struggled against the elite defenses throughout his career and I think that trend carries over here at Heinz Field.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well the Panthers are a terrible 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Pittsburgh is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: Wake Forest comes in off a loss to Syracuse and it lost its starting QB for the season in the process. Can anyone say letdown spot?! After back-to-back defeats, NC State finally bounced back with a destruction of FSU at home in its latest action, becoming bowl eligible in the process. Wake forest is averaging 32.2 PPG, but with QB Sam Hartman went down with injury mid-way though and because of that, I’m expecting the Demon Deacons to struggle to keep up with the Wolfpack. NC State is giving up just 25.5 PPG, while averaging 32.5.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 18-4 ATS in the last 22 in this series, while Wake is now just 1-5 ATS in its last six conference contests. Wake has struggled against superior competition this year and nothing is going to change here. Lay the points. 

The set-up: Ohio is on a roll and that’s not going to stop this weekend facing the RedHawks, who just lost 51-42 to Buffalo. The Bobcats are rolling across the board, , most recently winning 52-14 and 59-14 over WMU as a three-point dog last weekend.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio has seen the total go “over” the number in both games that it’s played so far this season as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and in three of its last four off a win against a conference rival, while the RedHawks have seen the total go “over” in four of five as an underdog already this year (and in four of their last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range). The RedHawks desperately need a win here to keep their bowl hopes alive. With each team pushing the pace, I’m expecting this one to soar “over” sooner, rather than later.

Writeup: The set-up: Kent State comes in off a 35-28 road over Bowling Green, while Buffalo hammered Miami Ohio 52-41 in its latest action. Last year the Bulls posted the 27-13 road victory at Kent State. On paper, clearly the Bulls have the advantage (the Golden Flashes average 24.3 PPG and allow 34.2, while Buffalo is averaging 34.9 PPG, while allowing 23.4. 

The pick: But winning leads to complacency and I do indeed think the Bulls get caught “looking past” their opponent today. Note that Kent State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 11 to 23 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: Both teams come off their bye weeks. Tennessee lost 20-19 in England in its final game before its bye, while Dallas fell 20-17 in Washington in Week 7. Both teams need a win and I think each will be looking to establish the run from the “get go.” As a result, expect this total to sneak under the number at the end of the night. 

The pick: Both teams feature a couple of QB’s who are better at “managing” the game, than “blowing it wide open.” They also feature two very strong RB’s in the Titans’ Derrick Henry and the Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliot. Take it for what you will as well, but Tennessee has seen the total go “under” the number in four of six already this year as an underdog, while Dallas has seen the total go “under” in six of its last nine non-conference games. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: I think Aaron Rodgers and the stumbling Green Bay Packers can keep this one respectable on Sunday night. Green Bay came up just short in a massive upset in LA last weekend and with their backs against the wall, I think the Packers bring that same intensity here on Sunday night. The Pats have won three straight and are off a short week after hammering the Bills in Buffalo on Monday night. 

The teams: Packers’ QB Aaron Jones had 86 yards and a TD last week. Rodgers was his usual dominant self and the defense was decent considering the opponent, posting five sacks and eight QB hits. 

New England wasn’t challenged last week. It didn’t need starting RB Sony Michale last weekend, but I think his absence this Sunday will be more significant against this desperate visiting side. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while New England is just already just 2-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Grab the points.

The set-up: Both teams come in playing well, but I think the extra week off to rest and prepare for this one will be the difference for Philip Rives and the visiting Chargers.

The teams: LA comes in on top form having won four straight, most recently a 20-19 win over the Titans in London. Rivers has 2,009 passing yards and an elite 17/3 TD:INT

Seattle has won four of five after an 0-2 start. But after sweeping a two game road trip, including a 28-14 victory in Detroit last Sunday, I think the Hawks suffer a predictable letdown here on the return to friendly soil. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less and a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three following its bye, while Seattle is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU wins. Play on LA.

The set-up: Washington comes in dog tired here after three straight victories, while the Falcons return to action fresh off their bye week and two straight victories. I expect the visitors to sneak away with an outright victory today. 

The teams: The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for the hurting Falcons. Atlanta still has plenty of injury issues to deal with, but Matt Ryan and his WR core remains in tact and I think the unit will be a difference maker this afternoon. 

The Redskins comes in off a 20-13 win over the lowly Giants, with aging RB Adrian Peterson going for a season-high 149 yards. Suffice it to say, I don’t think AP is going to match that pace again in back-to-back weeks. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but ATL is 3-1 ATS in its last four following its bye week and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Washington is just 2-3 ATS in its last five off a win against a conference rival. I like a rested Ryan to pull off the upset Sunday afternoon.

The set-up: Detroit enters off a 28-14 home loss to Seattle, while Minnesota comes in off a 30-20 home loss to the Saints. 

The teams: The Lions last road game ended in a 32-21 Week 6 victory in Miami. While it struggled against the Seahawks last week, I think Detroit will have its opportunities today against Vikes’ defense which has been exposed. Overall the Lions are averaging 24.4 points and allowing 26.6. 

Minnesota is averaging 24.6 PPG and allowing 24.4. Kirk Cousins remains a bright spot on the team with a 16/4 TD/INT, but the once vaunted league leading defense is now firmly planted in the middle of the pack.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Vikes are just 1-4 ATS the last five in this series, while the Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. Detroit has played well on the road this year, averaging 27.7 PPG away from friendly confines. Grab the points.

The set-up: The Browns will be leaving everything on the field today as they look to snap a three-game slide. KC enters off a 30-23 home victory over Denver, while Cleveland fell 33-18 to Pittsburgh last week. 

The teams: After their loss the Pats, the Chiefs come in having won two straight. The Chiefs average 36.2 PPG and they allow 25.6. Patrick Mahomes had four TD passes and an an INT last week. So far the Chiefs have been up to the task each week, but it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking past their lowly opponent today.

The Browns have been trying hard each week, but so far that effort hasn’t translated into many wins or offensive production. Cleveland averages 21.1 PPG and it concedes 26.2. RB Nick Chubb had 65 rushing yards last week.

The pick: Note that KC has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five as a favorite and in 13 of its last 18 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Cleveland has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 19 at home and in three of four already as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: Pittsburgh lost 26-14 in this matchup at home earlier in the year and I think it’ll have its hands full in this hostile environment Sunday as well. The Steelers are poised for a letdown here in my opinion after three straight wins. Conversely, it’s all hands on deck this week for Baltimore after losing three of its last four, including a 36-21 setback at Carolina last weekend. 

The teams: The Steelers are averaging 418.1 YPG on offense, while allowing 359.7 YPG. Note there’s a major concern about QB Ben Roethlisberger who fractured his index finger on his left hand. 

Baltimore is only allowing 293.8 YPG. The offense is averaging 379.3 YPG. Last week the defense struggled against Cam Newton, but the unit catches a break this week facing the lumbering (and now injured) Roethlisberger. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six after two or more SU losses. I’m banking on the more desperate team getting the job done today. Lay the points.

The set-up: The Irish look to remain undefeated after knocking off Navy last weekend. Northwestern has already knocked off two ranked foes this year, but I think the Wildcats will come up short here against Notre Dames complete team.

The teams: Notre Dame posted 584 total yards of offense against a hungry Navy team last weekend. A perfect season is in the Irish’s grasp, but they’ll have to stay focused now and take it one game at a time. 

Northwestern managed three fumble recoveries against Wisconsin, but RB Isaiah Brewer was one of the lone bright spots on offense with 117 yards and a TD. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Wildcats are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five following a victory, while the Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a win by 20 points or more. Notre Dame is on a mission and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas this weekend. Lay the points.

The set-up: Missouri comes in off a 15-14 loss to Kentucky last Saturday, while Florida enters off a 36-17 beatdown loss at the hands of Georgia. If recent history is any precedence, then Missouri has to be liking its chances today as in last year’s matchup it won 45-16.

The teams: Missouri is averaging 35.5 PPG and it’s allowing 28.9. QB Drew Lock has 2,144 passing yards with 16 TD’s and six INT’s. 

Florida is averaging 32.2 PPG and it’s allowing 19. QB Feleipe Franks has 16 TD’s and six INT’s so far this season. Last weekend the Gators came back down to earth, turning the ball over three times, while not forcing one themselves.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games in which it was held to points or less in its previous game and lost, while Florida is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine after scoring 17 points or less in a loss in its previous outing. Grab the points and expect a battle until the final moments!

The set-up: Cincinnati is 7-1 and it comes in complacent at home in my opinion, leaving the backdoor open for the 2-6 Navy Midshipmen, who come in off tough setbacks to SMU, Air Force, Temple, Houston and Notre Dame. 

The teams: It’s do or die for Navy, as it’ll have to run the board starting now to become eligible. An outright win? Likely not. But after four straight losses and with the season on the line, we do not have to doubt the Mids motivation levels this afternoon.

The Bearcats barely managed to get past SMU 26-20 in OT last weekend. Coach Luke Fickell has his team trending in the correct direction and while the Bearcats will most likely go on to win this game, I do indeed believe that the stage is set for a mental letdown. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Navy is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Cincinnati is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I’m banking on the desperation levels that the Mids bring to the table today to keep this one competitive late. Grab the points.

The set-up: If recent history is any precedence then Purdue has to be liking it chances today, because it would win this matchup last year on the road by a score of 24-15. Iowa comes in off a 30-24 loss to Penn State, while Purdue lost 23-13 to MSU on the road last weekend.

The teams: Iowa is averaging 29.8 PPG and conceding 16.1. QB Nate Stanley had a horrible game against PSU, going for 20 yards with no TD’s and two INT’s. 

Purdue is averaging 32.9 PPG and it’s allowing 22.8. Previous to last week’s loss at Michigan State, QB David Blough and the Boilermakers’ offense ha score 40-plus points in each of their previous three victories. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as all, but Purdue is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game, while Iowa is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 30 points or more. I like the Boilermakers to bounce back at home after last week’s tough road loss. Lay the points.

The set-up: NC State looks ripe for the picking here after back to back losses to Clemson and Syracuse. The Seminoles will be out to atone for their embarrassing 59-10 setback at home to Clemson last weekend. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do believe the stage is set for a competitive battle. 

The teams: The Seminoles looked terrible offensively last week, as QB Deondre Francois was sacked five times and he’d finish with just 180 yards and an INT. The Seminoles though have responded well in this spot for bettors for years though, going 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 after scoring less than 20 points in their previous contest. 

Last week NC State QB Ryan Finley threw for 473 yards, three TD’s and an INT in the shootout loss to Syracuse. The Wolfpack defense has been exposed and I think it’ll have its hands full with this hungry Seminoles’ side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but NC State is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU/ATS loss. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.”

The set-up: Both teams come in off disappointing records, but I expect the home side to fight until the final whistle. Georgia Tech is 2-3 in conference play, while UNC is 1-6 overall and 1-4 in ACC play. Georgia Tech has won three of its last four and it now has its eye on a bowl game, but the Tar Heels will look to play spoiler. 

The teams: Georgia Tech is averaging 38.9 PPG and it’s allowing 28.3. QB Tobias Oliver had 215 yards and three TD’s in last Thursday’s 49-28 win. TaQuon Marshall returns from injury to retain his starting RB role this week though. 

UNC feel 31-21 at Virginia last weekend. QB Nathan Elliot had 271 yards and two TD’s, but a late fumble proved costly. Overall the Tar Heels are averaging 23 PPG and allowing 34.3. 

The pick: Note though that Georgia Tech is a terrible 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite and 0-3 ATS in its last three when playing with eight days rest, while UNC is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 off a loss against a conference rival. Grab the points.

The set-up: Ohio State lost to Purdue and star DE Nick Bosa has withdrawn to concentrate on the NFL Draft. The Buckeyes have had a week off to ponder their upcoming fate and I think that “rest” will in fact lead to “rust” in this case. 

The teams: Nebraska started the year 0-6, but it comes in with some momentum off back-to-back victories, including beating Minnesota at home and then a 45-9 smash job of Bethune Cookman last weekend. QB Adrian Martinez had two TD’s and an INT. Overall the Huskers are averaging 29.8 PPG and allowing 33.4. 

The Buckeyes are averaging 43 PPG and allowing 22.9. Note though that they’ve given up 28.8 PPG average over the past four weeks. QB Dwayne Haskins was 49 of 73 for 470 yards two TD’s and an INT in the loss to the Boilermakers.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Nebraska is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 45 points or more in its previous outing. I’m banking on the Buckeyes “looking past” their opponent today. Grab the points.

The set-up: WKU has just one win on the year (against lowly Ball State) and it comes in having lost four in a row. MTSU will look to take advantage and to build off back-to-back wins over ODU and Charlotte.

The teams: WKU is averaging only 19.8 PPPG and it’s allowing 30. The Hilltoppers are now essentially eliminated from bowl contention and with that fact weighing heavily on the team collectively, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here.

MTSU QB Brent Stockstill will look to build off another efficient game, last week going for 280 yards with two TD’s and one INT. RB Terell West exploded for 120 yards and a major score as well. 

The pick: Note as well that the Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with losing records (the home team is also 4-0 ATS in the last four in this series), while WKU is just 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 following a SU loss. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the points.

The set-up: Oakland comes in off its third straight loss, a 42-28 setback at home to the Colts. Derek Carr and company are just playing for pride at this point. So too are the 49ers, who have lost six straight, most recently an 18-15 setback on the road to Arizona. With nothing to play, on the short week and with each side dealing with injuries, points are going to be at a premium in my opinion. 

The teams: The Raiders have already shelved RB Marshawn Lynch after he had surgery last week. Oakland also made some moves in its bye week, trading star receiver Amari Cooper to Dallas for a first round pick. Winning this Thursday night game is not of the greatest importance to this team right now.

The 49ers season went down the toilet when QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down with injury. The 49ers have seen four of their losses come by eight points or less, a testament their defensive and special teams play. 

The pick: The 49ers have been solid against the run and the Raiders have pretty much abandoned their ground game. The visitors offense is extremely one dimensional and I think the home side’s talented defensive unit will easily be able to make the adjustments to make things difficult on Carr from start to finish. This one has defensive battle written all over it. Play the under.

The set-up: UCF puts the nation’s longest winning streak on the line tonight and while I’m not calling for the straight up outright loss, but I think the home side will have its hands full with the division co-leader tonight, who clearly won’t be going down without a fight. 

The teams: Temple is 5-3 overall, but 4-0 in league play. Last time out it knocked off previously unbeaten Cincinnati 24-17. QB Anthony Russo finished three INT’s, but he also had three TD’s. During the Owls three game win streak he’s thrown eight of nine TD passes while posting 791 yards through the air. 

UCF is averaging 44.4 PPG. QB McKenzie Milton was held out of last week’s win over the Pirates, ending a string of 27 consecutive starts. Note that his status for this game is uncertain as well. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UCF has struggled mightily in the month of November, going just 1-5 ATS in its last six during that period, while Temple is 41-18 ATS in its last 59 on the road. I think the Owls have a legitimate shot at winning outright, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as may points as you can. Play on Temple.

The set-up: Ohio is 3-1 in conference play, while WMU is 4-1. The MAC West division race is wide open and I smell a small upset in the air on Thursday night.

The teams: WMU lost 51-24 to Toledo last time out, breaking a six-game slide. In that contest star QB Jon Wassink left early in the first quarter with injury. Wassink missed the final four games of 2017 as well and the Broncos would finish 1-3. Overall WMU is averaging 35 PPG and allowing 30.9. 

Ohio though comes in surging, it won its second straight conference game in a 52-14 blowout victory over Ball State. AJ Ouellette had 135 yards and two scores. QB Nathan Rourke had 127 yards passing and a TD as well. Overall the Bobcats are averaging 38.3 PPG while allowing 28.9.

The pick: Ohio though has held its last four opponents to under 27 points. Take it for what you will as well, but Ohio is 5-1 ATS in its last six against teams with winning records, while WMU is only 7-9 ATS in its last 16 at home, including only 1-3 ATS this season. 

The set-up: Toledo broke a two-game slide with a big win over WMU last Thursday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Ball State comes in on the other end of the spectrum, off back-to-back losses to EMU and Ohio. In my opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it.

The teams: Ball State rushed for just 80 yards and threw for only 162 in last week’s crushing 52-14 loss to Ohio. QB Riley Neal left in the second quarter with injury and he’s out for this one as well.

Toldeo’ QB Mitch Guadagni also suffered an injury in last week’s 51-24 blowout win over WMU last week, meaning Eli Peters is the “main man.” Last week he was 8 of 14 for 107 yards and three TD’s.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toledo is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 against teams with losing records, while Ball State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road. Lay the points and expect a blowout.

The set-up: Buffalo has a perfect conference record, but Miami Ohio won’t be going down without a fight tonight. The Redhawks enter off a tough 31-30 double-OT road loss to Army, while Buffalo gutted out a 31-17 road victory over Toledo. Note that when these teams met last year it was Miami Ohio which posted the 24-14 home victory.

The teams: Miami Ohio’ QB Gus Ragland has 1,769 passing yards and a 14/3 TD:INT. The Redhawks offense revolves around their strong run game though, led by Alonzo Smith, who has 342 rushing yards. Overall the Redhawks are averaging 26.2 PPG and allowing 24.9.

Buffalo is averaging 32.9 PPG and it’s allowing 21.1. QB Tyree Jackson was 1,869 passing yards with a 20/8 TD:INT, but note that he’s thrown five INT’s over his last three games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Buffalo is just 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 following its bye week, while Miami Ohio is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road. The Redhawks’ offense is firing on all cylinders right now and I think the unit keeps the visitors competitive late. Grab the points.

The set-up: If recent history is any precedence, then the Falcons have to be liking their chances tonight, as they took this game on the road last year by a score of 44-16. Kent enters off a 24-23 OT loss to Akron at home, while Bowling Green lost 49-14 at Ohio. Both teams are 0-4 in league play.

The teams: KSU averages 23 PPG, while allowing 35. Last week the Golden Flashes allowed the Zips to convert 10 of 19 third down chances.

Bowling Green is averaging 25.6 PPG, while allowing 47.8. The Falcons have been worse on the defensive side of the ball than their counterpart this year, but better on the offensive side. QB Jarret Doege is the difference maker for me today though, he so far has 2,078 yards passing with a decent 19/8 TD:INT.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Bowling Green is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games following a three games or more unbeaten streak in conference action and as an underdog in the +1 to +3.5 points range. Play on the Falcons.

The set-up: Tom Brady is 28-3 all time against Buffalo and while he won’t have offensive star TE Rob Gronkowski in the line-up, I still believe the all star will have more than enough to take care of the lowly (and injured) Bills.

The teams: After a 1-2 start the Pats come in having won four straight. Last week Brady threw for 277 yards and three TD’s in the victory over the Bears. WR Josh Gordon had four catches for 100 yards. Sony Michel is also expected to sit this one out, so expect to see a heavy dose of James White.

The Bills are dealing with several injuries, including at QB. Buffalo is already planning ahead to next year and I believe it’ll simply go through the motions tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Pats are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 after two or more consecutive victories, while Buffalo is just 10-13 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog. Lay the points and expect a rout.

The set-up: New Orleans comes in off a 24-23 road win over Baltimore, the league’s No. 1 defense, while Minnesota enters of a 37-17 dismantling of the Jets. These teams battled to a higher-scoring affair in the playoffs last year as well, with Minnesota eventually prevailing 29-24.

The teams: The Saints are averaging the second most points in the league, which is a good thing as the defense has regressed from last season, allowing 27.2 PPG. Drew Brees has an insane 13/0 TD/INT ratio and a QBR of 121.6.

Minnesota is averaging 25.3 PPG and and while it’s fifth in the league against the run defensively, it’s only 16th against the pass. Clearly that doesn’t bode particularly well facing the red hot Brees and company.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Vikes have seen the “over” go 5-2 in their last seven following a SU victory. Both teams are “firing on all cylinders” offensively. Play the “over.”

The set-up: Oakland only has one victory on the season and I think it’ll struggle containing Andrew Luck, who continues to gain confidence each week, despite being undermanned on both sides of the ball.

The teams: Luck had 156 yards and four TD’s in last week’s blowout win at home over the hapless Bills. Marlon Mack ran for 126 yards and a TD. Luck is getting improved play from his offensive line and I think that progression continues this week in what sets up as another favorable matchup.

Oakland coach Jon Gruden was signed to a ten year contract, so he’s gutting the team and rebuilding it the way he sees fit. Gruden’s indecision across the board has hurt the team in the short-term and probably in the long-term as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but note that Oakland is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road against teams with a losing home record. I like Luck to lay the hammer down and further expose Gruden’s complete ineptitude. Lay the points.

The set-up: Denver enters off a 45-10 win over Arizona and I think it’ll have its chances today against the Chiefs vanilla defense. Kansas City enters off a 45-10 win over Cincinnati, one week after coming up short in New England. Note that this is a revenge game for Denver after the Chiefs posted a 27-23 road win in Week 4.

The teams: Denver is averaging 23.6 PPG and it’s allowing 23.4. QB Case Keenum has 1,848 passing yards and an 8/9 TD:INT. The defense dominated last week, limiting the Cards to just 223 total yards.

KC is averaging 37.1 PPG and allowing 26. Patrick Mahomes has been unbelievable with 2,223 passing yards and a 22/5 TD:INT, but I think he’ll have his hands full today with this veteran Broncos defense.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC is still just 4-6 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records. Denver took the Chiefs best shot they had and almost prevailed. I’m expecting a similar “war” here as well. Grab the points.

The set-up: Chicago is 3-3 and in desperate need of a victory this week to keep pace in the competitive NFC North. Thankfully the Jets are coming to town, as New York continues to deal with a number of injuries on both sides of the ball. This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion.

The teams: The Bears enter off a 38-31 loss to the Pats, as QB Mitch Trubisky continued his fine season with 333 passing yards and two TD’s. Chicago remains one of the best on the defensive side of the ball and Khalil Mack and company look poised for a big night against the Jets patchwork front.

Jets’ QB Sam Darnold was just 17 of 42 for 206 yards, one TD and three INT’s in last week’s blowout loss to the Vikes. The Jets also lost the services of RB Bilal Powell to injury.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games played on “grass,” while Chicago is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 15 at home and 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous game. Lay the points.