The set-up: Louisville is 5-3 and Miami is 5-4. It's a big game, as the winner becomes bowl eligible. And as such, I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Louisville has been off since October 26th when it beat UVA 28-21. Will rest lead to rust here? The Cardinals play three of their next four on the road and I think this one sets up as a classic "trap/letdown" spot. The Cards only had 360 total yards in that victory, but the defense came up big by forcing two turnovers. In all the Cardinals average 32.8 PPG and allow 31.9. 

The pick: Miami has won two straight, most recently a 27-10 victory over FSU last weekend. QB Jarren Williams now has ten TD's and three INT's on the year. The Hurricanes defense was particularly sharp though, posting a season-high nine sacks. The Hurricanes average 26.8 PPG and they allow only 18.6. Additionally note that Louisville is still just 7-14 ATS in its last 21 vs. the conference, while Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of seven points or less. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

8* play on Miami Florida.

The set-up: Illinois is 5-4 and MSU is 4-4. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect that trend to continue here. Illinois has won three straight and Michigan State has dropped three in a row. Overall the Fighting Illini look solid offensively, averaging 30 PPG, behind 169 rushing yards per contest, good enough for 69th in the country. 

The pick: The Spartans on the other hand have scored just 17 points combined over their straight losses. Most recently MSU fell 28-7 to Penn State. Additionally note that Michigan State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss, while the Illini are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 after playing at home. No outright, but expect this one to come right down to the wire. Grab the points.

8* play on Illinois.

The set-up: At 7-1, Wake Forest is eligible and content. At 5-3, the Hokies need just one more win to become bowl eligible. The Demon Deacons enter off a 44-10 win over NC State and I think they finally take the foot off the gas here. Overall Wake averages 38 PPG. 

The pick: Virginia Tech's three game win streak came to an end in its 21-20 loss to Notre Dame last weekend. The Demon Deacons have not done well in this spot for bettors though, going a poor 1-3 ATS in their last four as a road favorite and a poor 1-4 ATS in their last five off a home win by 17 points or more. Conversely, this is a spot in which VT has excelled in by going 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog, including 3-0 ATS this season. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

8* play on Virginia Tech.

The set-up: Florida State is 4-5 and BC is 5-4. The Eagles can reach eligibility with a victory today and I expect the home side to deliver the goods. FSU made a coaching change mid week after its loss to Miami last weekend, while the Eagles come in off a massive win over Syracuse. How will FSU respond after firing Willie Taggart? No one knows for sure, but Odell Haggins, the former assistant now has his hands full. Last week the FSU secondary was crushed for 313 yards for a Hurricanes pass attack which is pretty lacklustre. The Seminoles also posted only 203 yards of offense themselves. 

The pick: BC smashed the Orange 58-27 last weekend, running the ball for 496 yards. AJ Dillon had three TDs on 242 rushing yards off 35 carries, while QB Dennis Grosel had 195 passing yards and three TD's. Note as well that FSU is a terrible 6-15 ATS in its last 21 vs. conference opponents and only 2-9 ATS In its last 11 road games, while BC is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. the conference. This one has home side blowout written all over it.

8* play on Boston College.

The set-up: Washington has was seven straight in this series, including a decisive 42-23 win last year. Suffice it to say, I expect that trend to continue here as well. The Huskies are 5-4 and they're desperate for a win here after falling 33-28 at home to Utah last weekend. The Beavers are 4-4 and they come in off an upset 56-38 win over on the road over Arizona. In fact note that Washington has lost back-to-back games, but over some pretty stiff competition in No. 12 Oregon and No. 9 Utah. 

The pick: Oregon State allows 254 passing yards per game and Huskies' QB Jacob Eason has 2,297 passing yards with 20 TD's to just five INT's. The Huskies allow 257 passing yards and Beavers' QB Jake Luton has 19 TD's to just one INT. However note that the Beavers are a sub-par 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games, while the Huskies are interestingly 4-1 ATS in their last five after posting less than 100 rushing yards in their last outing. After losing two straight, expect Washington to lay everything on the line here and after winning two in a row, look for the Beavers to take a mental step backwards. Lay the points.

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Washington.

The set-up: It's a big game for both of these hungry AFC sides. The Chargers are 4-5 and the Raiders are 4-4. Funnily enough, the Chargers could be heading to London next year, while the Raiders are on their way to Vegas. LA though is coming off back-to-back wins over the Bears and Packers and with its season essentially on the line, it's safe to say that Philip Rivers and company won't be "sitting back" and waiting for the home side to make a mistake. Melvin Gordon missed the first few games because of a contract dispute for LA, but the big RB is now finally back into "game shape" and it's opened things up considerably for Rivers to properly operate. 

The pick: The Raiders' defense is injured and it gave up more than 400 yards and three TD's to the Lions in their latest outing. Note that Oakland has allowed at least 24 points in all but one game this year. DeShaun Watson torched the Raiders' secondary and it gave up six TD's to Aaron Rodgers the week before that. Derek Carr is also going to be given the "green light" to air things out as Oakland's offense will once again have to carry the load this week. I think these two gun-slinging QB's become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is a tad low.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Chargers/Raiders.

The set-up: Louisiana Lafayette has won six in a row and it's now bowl eligible after laying the hammer down on Texas State last week. But on the short week here and facing a 4-4 Coastal Carolina side, I think the Ragin Cajuns finally have a bit of a mental letdown in this spot. Coastal Carolina is coming off a much needed win over Troy and I like the home side to build off that victory and give their visiting side everything it can handle. 

The pick: QB Bryce Carpenter has been hit or miss for the Chanticleers, but Coastal Carolina is still putting up decent offensive numbers. Louisiana Lafayette's offensive and defensive numbers are much better than its hosts, but this a situationally based selection, which I believe highly favors the home side. I think the Cajuns have a letdown after six straight wins and with their eligibility achieved last weekend. Coastal Carolina on the other hand still needs two more wins to become eligible. Additionally note that Louisiana Lafayette is 0-3 ATS in its last three after a cover as a double digit favorite, while Coastal Carolina is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset win as an underdog. Grab the points and expect a battle until the final whistle.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina.

The set-up: Miami Ohio won last year's contest 30-28 and I expect a similar hard-fought and ultimately higher-scoring game here as well. That victory snapped a five-game win streak in the series for Ohio. Miami Ohio is 4-4 and 3-1 in Conference play and it comes in confident after winning its last two games, including a 23-16 road victory over Kent State in its most recent. Ohio is also 4-4 overall and 3-1 in MAC play, most recently pulling away for a 34-21 victory over Ball State. The winner will take over first place in the MAC. Brett Gabbert is the QB for the RedHawks and he has 1360 passing yards and four receivers with 100 receiving yards. Note that the Bobcats allow 446.5 YPG on the defensive side. 

The pick: Ohio though has scored 78 points over its last two games (both victories) and I expect the home side to open up the playbook and push the pace again here as well. Bobcats' QB Nathan Rourke has 1,743 passing yards with ten TD's and five INT's so far. Note that Miami Ohio has seen the total go over the number in its last four after two straight wins over a conference rival, while Ohio has seen the total go over in 11 of its last 13 as a home favorite. This number is a tad low.

10* TOTAL BEATDOWN on the OVER Miami Ohio/Ohio.

The set-up: Both teams comes off their respective bye weeks. Ball State is 4-4 and in dire need of a couple more victories. WMU is 5-4 and it definitely wants to punch its ticket to eligiblity here and now. Ball State most recently got killed by Ohio 34-21, while the Broncos smashed Bowling Green 49-10 in their most recent action. The Cardinals are led by QB Drew Pitt, who has 17 TD's and six INT's. Ball State though ranks tenth in the MAC with just 11 sacks all year. 

The pick: The Broncos still have a shot at winning their division, but with their final two games of the season on the road, this has become a "must win" contest for Western Michigan. The Broncos have two experienced seniors on offense in QB Jon Wassink and RB leVante Bellamy (Wassink leads the conference with 2,273 passing yards.) Also note that WMU's defense is tied for first int he conference with 29 sacks so far. In this crucial game, I look for the home side to take advantage.

8* DESTRUCTION on Western Michigan.

The set-up: Toledo can become eligible with a victory today, while Kent State enters at 3-5. Both teams enter struggling, with Toledo having lost two of its last three, and Kent State having lost three of its last four. Kent State has faced some stiff competition this year and Dustin Crum has been decent under center for the Flashes. Toledo's strength on the defensive side is its pass defense though. 

The pick: Toledo enters off a 3-point OT win over EMU and I think that Eli Peters and company keep the foot on the gas in front of the home town crowd. Kent STate has struggled in this spot as well, going just 11-14 ATS in its last 25 as an underdog and only 1-3 ATS in its last four after a close lss by seven points or less to a conference rival. Conversely note that the Rockets have excelled in this position for bettors, going 9-2 ATS their last 11 as a home favorite. This one has "blowout" written all over it. 

8* DESTRUCTION on Toledo.

The set-up: Dallas smashed New York 35-17 in Week 1 when Eli Manning was under center. The Cowboys have been hit or miss this year, but they're coming off an impressive 37-10 win over Philadelphia in Week 7, a team which was just as hungry as desperate as they were. Dallas is coming off a Week 8 bye as well, so it's been planning and preparing for this crucial contest for a while now. New York though isn't sure what's going on, most recently losing 31-26 on the road to the Lions. At 2-6, the Giants' season is already over and they can now start preparing and planning for next year. 

The pick: New York is just 1-5 ATS in its last six at home, while Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. Breaking down individual player matchups or what each team's defensive and offensive numbers are is not important tonight. The situational factors combined with these strong trends make Dallas the savvy call in my professional opinion. Lay the points.

10* BLOOD BATH on the Dallas Cowboys.

The set-up: Has New England been "tested" this year on the defensive side of the ball? So far the Patriots are putting up historic numbers defensively, but many pundits claim that they've yet to face a "real" offense. Baltimore's versatile pivot Lamar Jackson definitely is a challenge for any team, but I still believe that the Pats' unit will be more than "up for it." Note that Baltimore may be 5-2, but it's schedule certainly hasn't been "murderers row" to this point either. And will rest lead to rust? The Patriots are pounding out convincing wins each and every week, but the Ravens will have to quickly try to regain their form after the extra time off. Clearly the home side will have to get out and push the pace of this one if it has any hopes of pulling off an upset vs. the Pats' strong defense today. 

The pick: Note that New England has seen the total in five of its last seven as a road favorite of three points or less, while Baltimore has seen the total soar over in six of its last seven after allowing 17 points or less in two straight. The overall situation combined with these strong O/U trends make the "over" the correct call here.

10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Pats/Ravens.

The set-up: What do you base your picks on? For me, I like to remain flexible and don't follow any one single methodology. The Raiders have been arguably the biggest "surprise" team in the NFL this year, a lot more competititve than what most thought. But in my opinion, this one sets up as a "trap/letdown" for the home side. And that's because the Raiders haven't actually played a "home" game in the last five weeks (the only time in the last five weeks that Oakland was the "home" side was its game in London three weeks ago.) Now the players return home to their own beds and their families finally and I think that it's going to have a detrimental effect to their play on the field today.

The pick: Oakland has lost two straight as well. The Lions though come off a crucial 31-26 win over the Giants last weekend and they'll be laying everything on the line here as they try to keep pace with the Packers. Note as well that Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a road dog and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. clubs with losing records, while Oakland is a terrible 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference games. A great situational play on the Lions this weekend.

10* GAME OF MONTH on the Detroit Lions.

The set-up: This is a "make or break" game for both teams in many respects. The Titans are 4-4 and the Panthers are 4-3. The Panthers were on a four-game win streak until last week's 51-13 setback to San Francisco. Tennessee enters off a 27-23 win over Tampa Bay. Ryan Tannehill was 21 of 33 for 193 yards and three TD's for the Titans last weekend. Panthers' QB Kyle Allen has filled in admirably for Cam Newton, entering with a 4-1 record and I think these two hungry QB's lay everything on the line today for their teams as they get out to push the pace from start to finish. 

The pick: Tennessee has seen the total go over in its last four as a road dog of seven points or less, while Carolina has seen the total soar over in nine 13 as a home favorite. This number is a tad low.

8* pick on the OVER Titans/Panthers.

The set-up: The Eagles come in off an impressive 31-13 win at Buffalo last weekend and I believe they carry that momentum over here. The Bears are trending in the opposite directoin after last week's 17-16 loss to the Chargers, their third straight.  

The pick: The Bears have been solid overall defensively, but they're ranked No. 27 on the offensive side. I believe the Bears' defense suffers a letdown here after three weeks of disappointment. The Eagles look rejuvenated after last week's performance and note that they're 8-2 ATS in their last ten vs. teams with losing records. Conversely note that the Bears are only 1-4 ATS in their last five off an upset loss as a favorite. There's no way the Eagles "look past" their opponent today, as this is a "must win" for the home side. Look for the Eagles to deliver the knock out blow to the Bears' playoff hopes today.

8* pick on the Philadelphia Eagles.

The set-up: Pittsburgh's won two straight over suspect competition, but I think it'll struggle here vs. the Colts defense. Indianapolis enters having won three straight, and I also believe that Pittsburgh's suspect defense will struggle in slowing down Jacoby Brissett's steady attack. Overall the Colts average 22.6 PPG and they allow 21.6. 

The pick: The Steelers average 21 PPG and they allow 20.6. Much of the Steelers success has come with RB James Conner shouldering the load, but he's questionable for this one and if he does play, one has to wonder about his health? Additionally note that the Colts are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 after one or more straight losses against the spread (including 2-0 ATS this season), while the Steelers are a poor 8-11 ATS in their last 19 at home and a terrible 0-3 ATS in their last three after playing on Monday Night Football. Grab the points.

8* pick on the Indianapolis Colts.

The set-up: The San Jose State Spartans are 4-4. Note that that's more victories than their last two season's combined. San Jose State needs two more wins to become eligible and I expect the home side to open up the playbook as it looks to pull off the upset. Boise State is 6-1 and ranked No. 21 in the country, but it'll be out to rebound here after a 28-25 loss to BYU last weekend. 

The pick: San Jose State QB Josh Love has been "under the radar" all season, as he comes in ranked No. 2 in the conference in passing yards and in eight games he's only thrown three INT's. The Spartans though are allowing the second most yards in the conference defensively (442.9), so Love has had to push the pace almost every weekend. Boise State has seen the total go over in eight of its last 12 on the road, while San Jose State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four after a road victory. The numbers and situation point to the over as the correct call in this one.

10* play on the OVER Boise State/San Jose State.

The set-up: Both teams are desperate for a win here. UVA is 5-3 and UNC is 4-4. The Cavs enter off a 28-21 loss to Louisville. Despite the hiccup, UVA still averages 30 PPG, while allowing only 20.8. QB Bryrce Perkins had 233 yards and a TD last week, while RB Wayn Taulapapa had 54 rushing yards and two TD's. 

The pick: UNC lost 43-41 to Virginia Tech two weeks ago and then bounced back with a 20-17 victory over Duke last weekend. UNC posted 432 total yards of offense, including 205 on the ground, led by Javonte Williams with 111 rushing yards. The Tar Heels average 27.5 PPG and they allow 25.8. UVA though is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a road loss, while UNC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite. I think the Tar Heels struggle vs. this tough UVA defense. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but grab as many points as you can in the end.

10* play on UVA.

The set-up: The Bears are 6-1 and now eligible and while I'm not calling for an outright win here, I do think that the 3-5 ECU Pirates won't go down without a fight this evening. The Pirates also play with the added incentive of "revenge" after they were humbled 56-6 to Cincinnati last season. The Bearcats were last in action when they posted the 24-13 win over Tulsa to become eligible. So will rest lead to rust? I don't think it's going to help the Bearcats here. 

The pick: Yes ECU is 0-4 in confernece play, but it's faced some heavyweights early in UCF and Navy. The Bearcats average 28 PPG and they allow 20, while the Pirates average 21 PPG, while allowing 28.5. However note that the Bearcats are a poor 2-5 ATS in their last seven on the road, wihle the home team is 6-1 ATS the last seven in this series. Expect the hungry revenge minded home side to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

8* play on ECU. 

The set-up: With a victory today UL Lafayette will move from 5-2 to 6-2 and therefore become eligible to play in a bowl game. Texas State is 2-5 and while it would love to draw motivation of playing "spoiler," I just don't see that happening today. With App State's outright loss last night, UL Lafayette will be extra motivated to run the table now as it looks to meet up with the Mountaineers in a revenge scenario in the championship game. 

The pick: The Bobcats are averaging only 18.1 PPG and QB Gresch Hensen will once again be sidelined with concussion after missing last week's loss to Arkansas State. The Cajuns have plenty of motivating factors working in their favor here, but also note that they're 4-1 ATS in their last five coference games and 4-0 ATS vs. teams with losing records, while Texas State is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four conference contests. In my opinion, this one has "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points.

8* play on Louisiana Lafayette.

The set-up: I like 5-3 Pittsburgh to come in and deliver the goods with its sixth win of the year vs. 2-5 Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets come in off their bye week, while Pittsburgh enters off a blowout loss to Miami. Note though that the Panthers are 3-0 ATS on the road this year and they're 2-1 ATS at Boyd Dodd Stadium since 2012. Pittsburgh is ranked 43rd in the country in pass defense, but it won't have to worry too much vs. the Yellow Jackets triple option attack. 

The pick: Georgia Tech allows 220 yards on the ground this week, so Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett can take advantage of what the defense gives him this week and get back to some play action as the game wears on. Note that Pittsburgh is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss vs. a conference rival, while Georgia Tech is 0-4 ATS in its last four after playing with two weeks or more of rest. I'm banking on the Panthers pulling away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover and their elusive sixth victory.

8* play on Pittsburgh.

The set-up: Liberty is 5-3 and UMass is 1-7. The Minutemen were just crushed by lowly UConn last time out and while they'd love to play "spoiler" to the Flames here, who need just one more win to become eligible, I just don't see it happening. Liberty comes in off a humbling 44-34 loss to Rutgers as a favorite last time out and it'll not be taking anything for granted after that embarrassing performance. The Flames have to contain UMass RB Bilal Ally, but beyond him the Minutemen are thin. 

The pick: On the flip side, Flames' QB Stephen Calvert will have no issues moving the ball vs. this porous UMass secondary (note that Calvert has 2,164 passing yards, with 16 TD's and only three INT's.) UMass is also just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home, while Liberty is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 200 yards or more in its previous game. I like Liberty to come in focussed and to dominate in all three phases. Lay the points.

8* play on Liberty.

The set-up: UCF is 6-2 and eligible for a bowl, but 3-5 Houston has its work cut out for it here as it lays everything on the line over the last month to get the job done. The Cougars looked good though against No. 16 SMU last week, despite eventually falling 34-31. Houston averages 30.9 PPG, but it allows 31.1. QB Clayton Tune is finally starting to look better though after having to fill in for injured starter D'Eriq King. 

The pick: UCF comes in off a 62-21 blowout win over Temple and I think it comes in a tiny bit complacent here vs. its lowly opponent. The Knights average 46.6 PPG and they allow 21.6. Clearly on paper QB Dillon Gabriel and the UCF have a signficant advantage, but note that the Knights are a terrible 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a home favorite of 21.5 points or more. Conversely, note that the Cougars are a solid 4-2 ATS already this season as a dog and 3-0 ATS in their last three off a close loss by seven points or less vs. a conference rival. No outright, but grab the points and expect a competitive battle. 

8* play on Houston.

The set-up: Navy just became eligible after its 41-38 win over Tulane last weekend. UConn earned its first victory of the year in last week's 56-35 win over UMass. Malcom Perry and the Midshipmen are back in the bowls this season and after punching that crucial/important win, I believe that Navy does in fact come out a bit flat in this one. The Midshipmen average 37.9 PPG and they allow 19.7. 

The pick: UConn only averages 21.2 PPG, while allowing 37.8, but last week it posted 539 total yards of offense. Additionally note that Navy is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while the Huskies are 3-1 ATS in their last four as a home dog in the 21 1/2 to 28 points range. I'm banking on a closer than expected battle here, grab the points.

10* TRAIN-WRECK on Connecticut.

The set-up: I got down early and have a favorable line in this one, but regardless, I like San Francisco to come in focussed on the task at hand and to once again run up the score quickly in this one as it then gets ready to play Seattle the following week. Clearly this is a big game for Arizona, as it sits at 3-4 and another loss will essentially take it out of the running for a playoff spot with both Seattle and San Francisco in its division. But San Francisco's depth on the defensive side of the ball and it's strong run game is going to prove to be too much for Cards' rookie QB Kyler Murray today. 

The pick: Arizona enters off a tough road loss to the Saints and I don't think the home side has gotten over that setback. It's interesting to note as well that San Fran is 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests, while Arizona is interestingly 0-3 ATS in its last three following a two game road trip. No upsets this week, lay the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Francisco 49ers.

The set-up: West Virginia is 3-4 and running out of time to become eligible. An outright win over 7-0 Baylor isn't likely going to happen, but I do definitely feel that the conditions are correct for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. The Mountaineers have lost three straight, but they come in off a much needed bye week and I think the extra time off to prepare for this one will help them in keeping this one relatively close until the final moments. 

The pick: The Mountaineers can score, but their defense has been terrible. The Bears are one of the highest scoring teams in the country, but with another "cream puff" with TCU up next, I think this does in fact set up as a bit of a "trap" for the home side as well. Finally note that WVU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more straight losses vs. the spread, while Baylor is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 at home and a poor 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. No outright, but closer than expected.

9* PLAY-BOOK on West Virginia. 

The set-up: Georgia Southern won't be going down without a fight vs. No. 20 Appalachian State. The Eagles enter off a 41-7 win over New Mexico State, while the 7-0 Mountaineers defeated South Alabama 30-3 last weekend. Georgia Southern's triple option is going to be something a bit different for App State today though. The Mountaineers average 140 rushing yards per game and the Eagles average 259 rushing yards per game.

The pick: Georiga SOuthern's defense is under-rated as well in my opinion, allowing only 209 passing yards per game, so QB Zac Thomas is going to have his hands full. Note that Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in its last five after scoring 37 points or more in its last game, while App State is already 0-2 ATS this year after a win by 21 points or more. No outright, but closer than what this spread would suggest.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia Southern.

The set-up: The last few Monday/Thursday games have been terrible matchups and this one follows suit. With nothing to play for though, I think the Fish simply go through the motions tonight and I look for the Steelers to "control" this one while on offense, instead of trying to run up the score and "run" this downtrodden visiting side off the field. Miami is back to Ryan Fitzpatrick under center for this one. The Steelers beat the Chargers two weeks ago and then they had their bye week. Mason Rudolph is back after suffering a concussion scare for Pittsburgh, but he'll be asked to do nothing more than to manage this game vs. the winless Dolphins, who are now in the hunt for a few top playoff picks. 

The pick: Note as well that Miami has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 off a road loss, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten after covering the spread in two or more straight games. I'm banking on a low-scoring affair on Monday night.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Fish/Steelers.

The set-up: The Packers come in off a big 41-24 win over the Raiders at home, but I think they'll have their hands full with this desperate home side. Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes is a big question mark this weekend and if he does play, one has to wonder how effective the dynamic pivot really will be? Matt Moore is a "clock manager," so expect to see a heavy does of LeSean McCoy and the running game from the home side will on the offensive end. 

The pick: The Packers' strength this year has been on the defensive side of the ball though and Moore is clearly going to be under pressure here as well. Additionally note that GB has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 14 vs. teams with winning records, while KC has seen the total go under in seven of its last eight after having lost two of its last three games outright. This one has defensive battle written all over it, play the under.

10* play on the UNDER Packers/Chiefs.

The set-up: This is Oakland's fifth straight game on the road, a trip which has included a trip to London. I admit that the Raiders have been better than I thought they'd be this year, but I think they're going to suffer a predictable letdown here vs. this focused home side, which comes in off a 30-23 loss to the Colts. The Raiders got crushed 41-24 at Green Bay last weekend and now they face a similar type offense in DeShaun Watson and the Texans. 

The pick: Oakland allowed five TD's to Aaron Rodgers last weekend and they average 21 PPG, while conceding 27.5. The Texans on the other hand average 26 PPG, while allowing 23. Oakland is also a poor 5-13 ATS in its last 18 on the road (including 1-2 ATS this year), while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two-game road trip. I like Watson to domiante this porous Raiders' secondary. Lay the points.

10* play on the Houston Texans.

The set-up: Both teams have had to deal with adveristy this year. The Bucs though have the better QB in place in this one and I think Jameis Winston will in fact be the difference maker in this one. The Titans managed a win over the Chargers last week, but I think they take a predictable step back here. Winston struggled in his last start vs. the Panthers, but he'll look to Chris Godwin to try and turn things around this week; Godwin has 662 yards and six TD's through the first six games this year. 

The pick: The Titans' QB situation is even worse though, as Marcus Mariota has been benched for Ryan Tannehill, who has looked decent in one game and poor in the other. Tampa Bay though is a pefect 3-0 ATS in its last three after two straight division contests, while Tennessee is just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 following a SU win (including 0-2 ATS this year.) Look for Winston to settle down here and find a way to get the job done here. 

8* play on the Bucs.

The set-up: I got down early on this one before it was confirmed that Matt Ryan wasn't going to play. Regardless, after losing five straight I think the Falcons and Matt Schaub find a way to get the job done here. Seattle allows 357 yards per game and Falcons' WR Julio Jones had 560 receiving yards and four TD's. 

The pick: Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett have been a deadly duo so far this year for the Hawks, but after Seattle's win at home over the Ravens last week and with a game at home vs. the Bucs before a road contest at division leading San Fran and its bye, I think this contest definitely sets up as a letdown spot for the visitors. Additionally note that Seattle is stil a poor 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while ATL is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four after five or more consecutive losses. I think Schaub is in fact a "good" thing for this Falcons team, as I look for the veteran backup to play his heart out here. Grab the points.

8* play on the Falcons.

The set-up: The Jags won this contest 31-12 last year and I expect a similar sort of beatdown here as well. New York is just 1-5 and it enters off a 33-0 loss to the Patriots on Monday Night Football. The Jags on the other hand enter off a 27-17 win over the Bengals and I have no reason not to think that they can't keep that momentum rolling here vs. this similar pathetic competition. Last week New York posted six turnovers, including two fumbles and it was flagged eight times for 60 yards. The Jags have 21 sacks and four INT's already this year and I believe they're going do some serious damage to Sam Darnold and this Jets' offensive line. 

The pick: Leonard Fournette had 131 yards rushing in last week's victory for the Jags and I think he'll be a difference maker at home this week as well. Overall the Jets have just seven sacks and five INT's on the year, so Jags' QB Gardner Minshew and Fournette will plenty of opportunities to make some dynamic plays this weekend. Additionally it's interesting to note that the Jags are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after posting 150 yards rushing in their previous game, while New York is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game. I expect a lop-sided rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

8* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The set-up: This non-confernece matchup means more to the 3-4 Eagles than it does to the 5-1 Bills in my opinion. I do indeed believe the the "hungrier" side will find a way to get the job done in this one. Buffalo has been carried so far by its defense, which is ranked third in the league by allowing only 15.2 PPG. That said, Josh Allen and the home side only average 20.2 PPG on the offensive side. The Eagles can't look past this game after falling 37-10 to the Cowboys last time out. 

The pick: While the Eagles looked poor offensively last week, I think that Carson Wentz and Philly get back on track here. The Bills offense has been terrible as well and there's opportunity for the visitors to steal this one outright. Further note that Philadelphia is still 10-6 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog, while Buffalo is only 1-2 ATS this year as a favorite. Desperation breeds motivation. Grab the points.

8* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.

The set-up: Denver opened the season with four straight close losses, but then it posted back-to-back victories, before then regressing again with a 30-6 loss to KC last week. Denver's defense has been decent and I think it'll come up big here on the road. 

The pick: The Colts have played to many close games as well, but after a 30-23 win over the Texans last week, I think Indy has a predictable letdown this week. The Broncos are also 4-1 ATS in their last five off a divisional contest, while the Colts are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine following a home win. I think the "hungrier" team finds a way to get the job done here. Grab the points.

8* play on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: Cal is 4-3 and desperate for a couple more victories. Utah is 6-1 and already bowl eligible. Utah though looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after getting its sixth win of the year in a 21-3 win over Arizona State. 

The pick: Cal has lost three in a row, but it's looked better of late. The Bears only concede 18 PPG, so they have the defense to hang with the home side today. Additionally note that Cal is 10-4 ATS in its last four and 5-1 ATS in its last six after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games, while the Utes are 0-2 ATS in their last two after allowing six points or less in their last outing. I'm grabbing the points. 

10* play on California 

The set-up: Obviously I'm not calling for an outright victory, but I do believe that the stage is set for BC to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Dennis Grosel ha had to fill the shoes of starter Anthony Brown, but thankfully the offense revolves mostly around RB AJ Dillon. BC is coming off a big win and it's also fresh out of its bye week. Overall the Eagles averages 34.6 PPG and they allow 28.1. 

The pick: The Tigers are 7-0 and ranked No. 4 in the country. On the year they're averaging 40 points and conceding only 12. Clemson leans heavily on RB Travis Etienne, who averages almost 8 yards per carry. It's interesting to note though that Clemson is just 2-5 ARTS in its last seven at home in this series, while BC is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Additionally note that the Eagles have failed to cover in just eight of their last 29 games overall. No outright, but expect a solid cover from a good team that won't be going down today without a fight.

8* play on Boston College. 

The set-up: Memphis is 6-1 and bowl eligible, while Tulsa needs to string some wins together at 2-5. The Tigers lost their first game of the year, but have since reeled of six straight to become eligible, including a 47-17 victory over Tulane last time out. But with a game against Conference leader SMU up next weekend, I have a hard time seeing Memphis not getting caught "looking ahead" to that much more high-profile contest. Memphis' QB Brady White threw for five TD's in his last game, but I think he and the rest of his team do indeed come in complacent here after their sixth win of the year. 

The pick: Tulsa is averaging only 21.9 PPG, and it's allowing 31. It's faced three straight difficult opponents though in SMU, Navy and Cincinnati, as QB Zack Smith had a 10:6 TD:INT thus far. Memphis though is a poor 6-10 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 42 points or more in its last game, while Tulsa is 5-2 ATS in its last seven off a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival. I think Tulsa plays with heart and takes the Tigers down to the wire. Grab the points.

8* play on Tulsa.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. Troy is 3-3 and desperate to string some wins together. Georiga State is 5-3 and can become eligible with one last victory. What better time than right now?! Troy enters off a 37-13 win over South Alabama, while Georgia State got the better of Army 28-21. Troy is led by QB Kaleb Barker and the Trojans are putting up a decent 449.2 yards of offense per game. Unfortunately though Troy has been an absolute train wreck on the other side of the ball, ranked 120th out of 130 FBS teams in stopping the pass, allowing 287.7 YPG. 

The pick: Georgia State is led by senior QB Dan Ellington, who had three TD passes vs. a tough Army defense last weekend. So far Ellington has a strong 16:3 TD:INT this year and I think he'll be the difference maker in this one. Also note that the Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games after posting 28 points or more in their previous game, while Troy is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games after scoring 35 points or more while also covering in its previous outing. This one has home side rout written all over it.

8* play on Georgia State. 

The set-up: Both teams have dropped four of their last five games. Illinois though is ocming off an epic 24-23 win at home over Wisconsin (which entered that game at 6-0 and as a 29 point favorite.) The Illini looked a lot better, especially on the defensive side of the ball and I think the team carries that momentum over here. 

The pick: Purdue will be tested by the Illini both on the ground and in the air. The Boilermakers allow 275 yards per game through the air. Is Boilermakers' QB Jack Plummer that much better than Illinois QB Brandon Peters? If we go by last week's results, the answer is no in my opinion. This one has the feel of an outright battle until the final whistle and because of that, I'm grabbing the points.

8* play on Illinois 

The set-up: Texas A&M is 4-3 overall and 2-2 in conference action, while Mississippi State is 3-4 overall and 1-3 in league action. Mississippi State comes in hungry here after back-to-back losses, most recently falling 36-13 to LSU. QB Garrett Schrader had 238 yards, one TD and one INT. He also had 66 rushing yards:

"We played our asses off today, and we fought," MSU head coach Joe Moorhead told Hail State. "Was it clean, was it precise, was it what we needed to be against this team? Absolutely not. But I know this – when I'm in that locker room and I look at that team and I saw how we fought; we're going to build off of this one. We're going to take the good things and correct the bad things, and be a football team that continues to fight for the rest of the year."

The Bulldogs average 25.4 PPG and they allow 26.4. 

The pick: Last week the Aggies beat Mississippi 24-17, but QB Kellen Mond did not look overly impressive, going 16 of 28 for 172 yards, one TD and two INT's. So far Texas A&M averages 31 PPG and it allows 22, however note that it's just 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while the Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five following a double-digit home loss. I think this is going to be a battle until the final whistle and as such, I'm grabbing the generous amount of points.

8* play on Mississippi State. 

The set-up: Bowling Green is 2-5 overall after giving up 38 points to CMU last weekend. WMU is 2-2 in league play, but its offense is ranked 27th in the nation, averaging 34.4 PPG. Also note that the Broncos play with revenge here after they fell 42-37 to the Green Falcons last year. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but WMU is 4-0 at home and Bowling Green is 0-3 on the road. The Falcons just gave up 560 yards of offense to Central Michigan and QB's Darius Wade and Grant Loy continue to struggle. WMU senior QB Jon Wassink on the other hand already has 2,098 passing yards on the season (15 TD, 7 INT.) The Broncos also have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five at home and 4-0 ATS following a SU loss, while BG is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss. I don't expect the WMU defense to be the main story line tomorrow, but it won't have to with his Broncos' offense having its way with this porous Falcons' secondary. Lay the points with confidence.

8* play on Western Michigan

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. USC is just 4-3 and still in search of eligibility. Time is running out for 3-4 Colorado as well though. The Buffs enter off a 41-10 loss to Washington State, their third straight conference set back. USC is off a 41-14 victory over Arizona at home. USC is in a tie now with Utah for the lead, but last week's victory came at a cost, as the Trojans come to Colorado suffering a number of injuries to key players: they lost starting RB Vavae Malepeai for the season. Junior RB Stephen Carr also hurt his hamstring against the Wildcats and isn't expected to play. Backup RB Markese Stepp is also out with an ankle injury. Defensive linemen Christian Rector and Drake Jackson are also slated as questionable, as are CB's  Olijah Griffin and Greg Johnson.

The pick: Colorado needs QB Steven Montez to show and produce tonight vs. this wounded Trojans' defense. Montez's ground game though has been decent of late, with Alex Fontenot running for over 70 yards in each of the last four games. I'll point out as well that USC is still only 9-15 ATS in its last 24 as a favorite, while Colorado is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight losses by 28 points or more to conference rivals. The situation favors the home side here, so grab the points.

10* DESTRUCTION on Colorado.

The set-up: SMU is already bowl eligible at 7-0, but Houston has some work to do at 3-4. An upset win at home over the surging Mustangs would certainly help get the ship directed in the correct direction. SMU comes in off a 45-21 home win over Temple. Shane Buechele has been superb so far for SMU, but I think he's going to have his hands full here vs. this motivated and hungry home side, which enters off a 24-17 win over UConn. Cougars' QB Logan Holgorsen and 123 yards and a TD. SMU allows 251 yards passing per game, so Holgorsen will have his opportunities. 

The pick: Note that SMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a win against a conference rival, while Houston is is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four off a road win against a conference rival. I think the home side fights tooth and nail in this one and keeps it close as the game comes down the stretch. I'm grabbing the points.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston.

The set-up: New England is 6-0 and New York is 1-4. The Patriots pulled away for a 35-14 home win over the Giants, while the Jets enter off their first victory of the year in a 24-22 win over the Cowboys. I expect a more conservative style of play from the Pats in this contest though as they look to avoid the upset and to "look past" these suddenly confident Jets. New York only allows 358 total yards of offense, with 262.2 through the air and a paltry 95.8 on the ground. 

The pick: The strengh of the Jets is indeed on the defensive side of the ball and while the Patriots have an unreal offense, it is in fact their defense which is also "stealing the show" in New England this year. So far the Pats allow only 234.7 YPG this season, which includes an average of 161 through the air and only 73.7 on the ground. Note that New England has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 20 on the road and in 14 of its last 19 as a road favorite, while the Jets have seen the total dip under the number in nine of 13 as a home underdog in the 7.5 to 14 points range. Look for this one to stay under once it's all said and done.

10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Patriots/Jets.

The set-up: Baltimore is ranked 17th on the defensive side of the ball. The Ravens though have a big question mark in the WR position this week with Marquise "Hollywood" Brown listed as questionable. The Seahawks are getting unreal play from QB Russell Wilson, who has 16 TD's so far and no INT's. The Hawks defense isn't what it used to be, but so far it's been better than average by posting 12 takeaways YTD. 

The pick: Note that Baltimore has interestingly seen the total dip under the number in 11 of its last 15 after having won two out of its last three games SU, while Seattle has seen the total go below the posted number in 11 of its last 17 as a favorite. This number is high in my opinion.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Ravens/Hawks.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. Each of these teams had huge expectations coming in, but each has struggled mightily to open the 2019/20 campaign. The Chargers are off a 24-17 home loss to the Steelers, while the Titans fell 16-0 in Denver. While Philip Rivers had 320 yards and two TD's last week for the Bolts, he also had two INT's. And now he faces the leagues second best pass defenses which concedes just 217 passing yards per game. Also note that Rivers has been sacked 12 times already this year. 

The pick: Marcus Mariota is out and Ryan Tannehill is in for the Titans this week. Tannehill makes his first start for his new team and I expect the pivot to make the most of this opportunity. LA though is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with losing records, while Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a road loss. I think the Titans superior defense is the difference here and I like Tannehill to make the most of this opportunity. Lay the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Tennessee Titans.

The set-up: After two straight wins, I think that Kyler Murray and the Cardinals take a step back here in this difficult road venue. The Cardinals most recently scored the upset 34-33 win over the Falcons. The Giants are now led by Daniel Jones and they most recently were destroyed by the Patriots on Thursday night. The Cards' offense has been decent of late, but the defense has taken a step back. 

The pick: The Giants welcome back starting RB Saquon Barkley to the line-up, which is obviously a huge boost to New York's offense. Also note that Arizona is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a win by six points or less, while New York is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight loss by ten points or more; I'm laying the short points!

9* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Giants.

The set-up: Oakland comes in off its bye week after beating the Bears in London. This is the Raiders fourth game out of five straight away from home and I think they'll struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue. In the win over Chicago, QB Derek Carr had zero TD's and zero INt's. Also note that the Raiders come to town with question marks surrounding their top two receivers, as Dwayne Harris and Tyrell Williams are both listed as questionable.

The pick: Oakland allows 24.6 PPG as well this year. Green Bay escpaed with a win over Detroit last week, but the Lions lead the league in several defensive categories. Green Bay's defense is conceding just 19.2 PPG and the Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss. The Raiders on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. teams with a winning record. Lay the points.

8* SMOKE-JOB on the Packers.

The set-up: A couple of 4-2 teams from the Mountain West collide late on Saturday night and when the smoke finally clears at the end of the night, I expect this total to sneak under the posted number. These are two effecient, but different offenses. The Falcons run the ball and the Warriors throw it. Air Force enters off a 43-24 win over Fresno State, while Hawaii enters off a beatdown loss to Boise State. While each played to a higher-scoring affair in their last outing, I expect more of a defensive battle here. 

The pick: The Falcons will be out to control while on offense and I believe that's going to help in pushing this total under the number. Additionally note that Air Force has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after scoring 42 points or more in its previous contest, while Hawaii has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 63. This number is a tad high.

10* play on the UNDER AF/Hawaii.

The set-up: Boise State is 6-0 and BYU is just 2-4. BYU comes in desperate though after three straight losses. The Broncos are rolling, but I think they come out flat here after their 59-37 conference destruction of Hawaii. Yes Boise State posted 518 yards of total offense in the victory, but it also conceded 435. 

The pick: Both teams have injuries to starting QB's. BYU has the home field advantage and is the "hungrier" team here. I love this pick from an overall "situational" stand point, but also note that Boise State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after two straight wins by 17 or more points, while BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a loss by six points or less. Grab the points.

10* play on BYU.  

The set-up: ODU is 1-5 and UAB is 5-1. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. ODU has been terrible offensively, but I think this sets up great from a situational stand point for the visitors. 

The pick: UAB is on the verge of eligiblity, but with its bye week up next before a game vs. the Vols and then Southern Miss, I believe the home side does indeed get caught "looking ahead." This is as situationally based selection on the visitors.

8* play on ODU. 

The set-up: I'm grabbing the points and expecting the 3-3 Terps to take the 4-2 Hoosiers down to the line. Indiana has won three of four, while Maryland has dropped three of four. The Terrapins are stout up front, allowing just 135 yards per game on the ground. The Terps can score as well, ranked in the top 50 as far as total yards of offense per game. 

The pick: Defense has been the weak point for the Terps, but Indiana has struggled as well, having allowed at least 28 points in eight of its last nine Big Ten contests. The Hoosiers are also a terrible 1-5 ATS in their last six as a road favorite, while the Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six off a blowout loss vs. a conference rival of 21 point or more. Grab the points.

8* play on Maryland. 

The set-up: Minnesota is 6-0, while Rutgers is just 1-5. I think the Golden Gophers go up early in this one and then coast in the second half. The Knights are actually decent against the pass and the Knights only average 229.7 YPG through the air anyways. The Gophers dominate the run game, and Rutgers struggles against the rush.  

The pick: But I think that plays into our hands in here in grabbing the massive amount of points. It's back to back "cream puffs" for Minnesota, with Maryland at home up next. No need to do anything fancy here. Additionally note that the Gophers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six off a home win vs. a conference rival, while Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a home dog of 14.5 points or more. No titanic upsets, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

8* play on Rutgers. 

The set-up: Oregon State is just 2-4. Cal is 4-2, but it enters have lost two straight. Note that the Beavers play with revenge here as well after they fell 49-7 in this game last year. Last week the Bears managed just 256 total yards of offense, including only 66 on the ground. Yes the Bears only allow 18.3 PPG, but they only average 20.3 (ranked No. 116 in the country.) 

The pick: Beavers' QB Jake Lutton struggled vs. Utah last week, Oregon State still comes in averaging a very respectable 32 PPG. The defense has been the weak point in conceding 34 PPG, but it catches a break here facing the Bears vanilla offense. Finally note that Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road, while Oregon State is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home. I think the Beavers open up the playbook and keep this one competitive throughout. 

8* play on Oregon State.  

The set-up: I expect the 4-3 CMU Chippewas to lay the hammer down here on the 2-4 Bowling Green Falcons. Bowling Green has won two straight in the series, but I expect that trend to firmly go in the other direction after tonight. Previous to last week's win over Toledo, note that the Falcons had lst four straight, giving up 201 points and posting only 27 of their own in the process. The Chips come in off back-to-back victories, most recently taking care of winless New Mexico State. CMU won't be with QB David Moore, but senior Quinten Dormady had 134 yards passing and two TD's vs. the Aggies last week. 

The pick: Despite last week's win the Green Falcons are still averaging only 16 PPG. CMU is conceding 28 PPG, but so clearly the Chips' defense catches a break here as well. Finally note that CMU is a sharp 3-0 ATS in its last three as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Bowling Green is only 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the same points range (including 0-2 ATS this year.) Lay the points and expect a rout.

8* play on Central Michigan. 

The set-up: This is a big game for the 2-4 Boilermakers. Iowa is 4-2, but it comes in off a humblings 17-12 home loss to Penn State. Purdue on the other hand comes in off a momentum-building 40-14 victory over Maryland, with QB Jake Plummer throwing for 420 yards and three TD's. Iowa has the fifth ranked defense in the country, but Plummer won't be shy to try and get the ball down field whenever he can. The Boilermakers' QB has seven TD's and four INT's. Overall Purdue has six receivers with over 100 yards. 

The pick: Iowa' QB Nate Stanley had 286 passing yards in last week's loss, along with one TD and one INT. The Boilermakers' defensive numbers are poor, but it catches a break this week as note that the Hawkeyes have struggled in this spot for bettors, going a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference contests. Conversely this is a spot which the Boilermakers have excelled in by going 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. I'm grabbing the points.

8* play on Purdue. 

The set-up: Ohio State is 6-0 and Northwestern is just 1-4. Clearly I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do feel that the conditions are right for a tighter battle than what this spread would suggest. Ohio State ranks in the top in the country in almost every statistical category on both sides of the ball. Buckeyes' QB Justin Fields has 18 passing TD's and eight rushing. But with 6-0 Wisconsin at home next weekend, would anyone fault the visitors in looking past their lowly opponent in some small way today? 

The pick: Northwestern enters off three straight tough losses, but it also enters rested out of its bye. The Wildcats lost 31-10 to MSU, 24-15 to Wisconsin and 13-10 to Nebraska. Whether it's Aiden Smith or Hunter Johnson under center, I'm basing today's pick more on the situation than anything else. I will however note that NW is 4-1 ATS in its last five following its bye-week, while OSU is only 3-7 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with losing records. 

10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Northwestern.

The set-up: Patrick Mahomes is the same player, but this isn't the same Chiefs team which we saw last year. The defense was always a weak point and it remains a weak point now as well. But the offense isn't "clicking" like it once was and penalties and poor special teams play have led to back-to-back losses for KC. After starting 0-4, the Broncos have now won two in a row. The revenge angle comes into play here for the home side as well, as it's lost seven straight in this series (it's interesting to note though that Broncos' new QB Joe Flacco is 2-0 vs. the Chiefs for his career.) 

The pick: KC allows over 400 yards per game on defense, which is 29th in the league overall. Also note that Mahomes is in fact nursing a sprained ankle and he's playing without the services of LT Eric Fisher. The KC run game is also non-existent, averaging only 87 YPG. Denver's defense has been a strength of late and I think the unit is going to have another big night tonight. Finally note that the Broncos are interestingly 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday night games, while KC is only 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. I'm grabbing the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: UL Lafayette's four game win streak was snapped in last week's 17-7 loss to App State. The Rajun Cajuns still average 38.2 PPG though and their rushing attack is ranked sixth with an average of 282.2 YPG. Arkansas State is averaging a whopping 40 PPG in the early going, but the Red Wolves defense has been atrocious. Arkansas State enters off a loss as well to Georgia State. 

The pick: UL Lafayette QB Levi Lewis is going to have a big day in my estimation and he comes in sporting a strong 9:2 TD:INT. The Red Wolves rank 117th in the nation against the run, so Cajuns' RB Trey Regas also looks primed for a huge night. Red Wolves' QB Layne Hatcher has four TD's and two INT's in each of his last two games, but his defense ranks second to last in D1. Finally onte that Arkansas State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games, while UL Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU loss. 

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Lafayette.

The set-up: South Alabama is 1-5 and Troy is slightly better at 2-3. Both teams enter off their respective bye weeks. A closer look at South Alabama's schedule though reveals a very difficult one in the early going (Nebraska, Memphis). Jaguars' second year coach Steve Campbell has his team moving in the right direction despite what the win/loss record says. Note that South Alabama held Nebraska to just 2.2 yards per carry. QB Cephus Johnson averaged 12.9 yards per throw and had two TD's and no INT's in his last game. Additionally note that South Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference contests. 

The pick: Troy senior QB Kaleb Barker is under center now after starter Brandon Silvers left before the season started, and in his last start Barker had only 92 yards passing on 26 attempts with two INT's. The Trojans rank 124th out of 130 FBS teams in passing yards allower per attempt at 10.22. Note as well that Troy is a terrible 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. In my opinion, this one has "nail-biter" written all over it. Grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on South Alabama.

The set-up: Detroit is 2-1-1 and Green Bay is 4-1. The Lions have looked decent on both sides of the ball, with wins over the Chargers and Eagles and nearly getting by the Chiefs last time out. Green Bay smoked the Cowboys in Dallas last weekend, but after the Cowboys lost to the Jets yesterday, I'm taking that victory with a proverbial "grain of salt." Detroit also comes in focussed and healthy after its bye week. 

The pick: The Lions defense has been impressive, shutting down Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, while also holding Patrick Mahomes without a TD. Green Bay has been terrific defensively as well, so I'll call that department a "wash." I think that Lions' veteran QB Matt Stafford has enough tricks up his sleeve to put the pressure on Aaron Rodgers and company. In a game which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points.

10* COACH'S CORNER on the Detroit Lions.

The set-up: The Steelers are 1-4 and the Chargers are 2-3. This is a "must win" game for both teams. But I like Philip Rivers and company on their own soil here. Note that this is a revenge game as well for the home side after it fell 33-30 in Pittsburgh last season. Both teams enter off losses. Pittsburgh' backup QB Mason Rudolph suffered a concussion last weekend and he's listed as doubtful here. While the Pittsburgh defense picked off Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson three times last week, I don't expect that kind of sloppy play from Rivers at home and after last weekend's poor 20-13 loss at home. 

The pick: The Chargers have actually been quite stingy defensively, allowing only 334.8 total yards of offense per game. Pittsburgh allows 229.8 passing yards per game, but now they'll have to deal with LA RB Melvin Gordon, who has finally returned from his holdout. Too many question marks surrounding Pittsburgh here, while the conditions are unquestionably correct for a big bounce back for LA in my opinion. Lay the points with confidence.

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the LA Chargers.

The set-up: Tennessee is 2-3 and Denver is 1-4. Most likely neither team will see the playoffs. That said, each still has a shot if they can win this game today. This is an important game for both sub-.500 teams and as such, I look for more of a wide open affair. Last week the Titans lost 14-7 to the stingy BIlls. The Broncos saved their season (mathematically) with a 20-13 road win over the Chargers this past Sunday and I expect them to build off that performance with their best effort at home so far. 

The pick: Both teams are ranked in the lower half on the offensive side of the ball, but I think that Derrick Henry and Marcus Mariota push the pace of this one on the road, similar to their Week 1 destruction of the Cleveland Browns. Joe Flacco and Phillip Linday come off their best performance for the Broncos and there's no reason not to think that they won't be given the green light here as well. Note that Tennessee has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six as a road dog of 7 points or less, while Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five as a home fav of three points or less. The situation points to this total flying over this low number sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Titans/Broncos.

The set-up: LA opened the year 3-0, but it's since 0-2. San Francisco enters are 4-0 after Monday's destruction of the Browns at home. I've been surprised by the 49ers so far, but I have a hard time seeing the team maintaining this level of play, especially vs. this now hungry Rams team, which comes in off a last second controversial loss to another division rival Seattle just last week. 

The pick: Despite their recent issues, the Rams' offense still ranks sixth in the league. Additionally note that San Fran is a poor 0-2 ATS in its last two after playing on MNF, while LA is 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a divisional contest. I think the "hungrier" team finds a way to get the job done in this one.

8* play on the LA Rams.

The set-up: Cleveland fell flat on Monday Night Football in San Francisco, but it still has a very genuine shot at competing for the division crown if it can string a few wins together. First things first is Seattle, which comes off a thrilling victory over the Rams at home. Seattle's weakness the last few years has been its play on the road and while the victory over LA looks impressive on paper, the Rams have looked plain terrible this season. This is a trap game for Seattle and it has to be careful to not look past its hungry opponent.

The pick: Baker Mayfield and the Browns are better team when they run the ball and try to control things while on offense. It's when they're playing from behind or trying to be too fancy that the Browns struggle. I expect a very conservative style of play from the home side today as it looks to once again limit its stupid mistakes. Note that Seattle has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Cleveland has seen the total dip under in ten of its last 13 as a home dog. This number is high, play the under.

8* play on the under Hawks/Browns.

The set-up: A trip across the pond is going to lead to a lower-scoring under in this one. This is the second meeting of the season between the divisional foes and in the first one the Bucs won a low-scoring 20-14 affair. Tampa comes in off a loss to New Orleans by a score of 31-24, while the Panthers have won three in a row since losing to the Bucs. The Panthers have been getting exceptional play from QB Kyle Allen, but I think the rookie will be more effected by anyone on this trip to London. Look for Carolina to once again lean heavily on RB Christian McCaffrey, who in fact leads the league right now with 587 rushing yards and 31 catches for 279 yards. Also note that the Panthers have been great defensively since the loss to Tampa, posting 16 sackes over their last three games. 

 The pick: Tampa's pass defense has been terrible, which was completely evident in last week's loss to the Saints and Teddy Bridgewater. The Bucs though do rank second against the run, a unit which is clearly going to be tested early and often today by McCaffrey. The Panthers only average 264 yards per game through the air, so Tampa's porous secondary catches a break today. When you add up all of the above factors, the savvy call in this one is on the under in my opinion. 

8* play on the under Panthers/Bucs.

The set-up: Both teams are 4-1, thanks in large part to suffocating defensive play. Wyoming has won three of the last four in this series. Last week SDSU picked up a big road win over Colorado State and there's no reason not to think that the Aztecs can't carry that momentum over here as well. SDSU also won't be taking anything for granted here after losing three of its last four in front of the home town crowd. 

The pick: Wyoming averages 31 PPG and it'll be playing to its strengths in this one. And that means a steady dose of airing the ball out whenver possible. SDSU will also be taking advantage of the fact that the Cowboys are terrible against the pass, ranked 127th in the country by allowing 329 yards through the air on average. The Aztecs' offense finally comes alive at home vs. this porous Wyoming secondary in my opinion. I also expect the visitors to push the pace from start to finish. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of the night, look for this total to sneak over this extremely low number. 

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Wyoming/SDSU.

The set-up: I like 4-2 Nebraska to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire with the 5-0 Golden Gophers. This is a big opportunity for the Huskers, who have two by weeks, bookended around two games vs. bottom feeders Purdue and Indiana. Nebraska has plenty of talent in RB Wan'Dale Robinson and QB Adrian Martinez. Note that Martinez leads the team in passing and rushing. 

The pick: Nebraska hammered Minnesota last year and I think the stage is set for an upset here as well. I think the Gophers 5-0 start is due to a weak schedule. Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan has 13 TD's and three INT's, but both RB Mohamed Ibrahim and Cam Wiley are listed as questionable. Note as well that Minnesota is a poor 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 following an ATS victory, while the Cornhuskers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams with a winning SU home record. I like Martinez to keep his team in this game. Grab the points.

10* COACH’S CORNER on Nebraska

The set-up: I think Kent State will bounce back big here after last week's tough 48-0 loss at Wisconsin. And who better to beat up on the lowly 0-5 Akron? The Zips tried their hardest last week, but ultimately succummbed 37-29 to UMass. 

The pick: The Golden Flashes have plenty of skilled players though, so keep your eyes on RB Jo-El Shaw, who has 300 yards rushing and two TD's. WR Isaiah McCoy has 21 catches and and three TD's. Akron averages only 14 PPG and it concedes over 30. The Zips are alos just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. teams with losing records, while the Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 40 points or more in their previous outing. I'm laying the points and expecting a rout.

8* SMACK-DOWN on Kent State.

The set-up: The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 0-4 and they're down to their third string QB. They won't be lacking for motivation here though. Last week Rutgers lost 48-7 to Maryland. Overall the Knights average only 14.2 PPG, while allowing 36.2. 

The pick: But I think the well rested Hoosiers get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent today to their back to back road games at Maryland and Nebraska respectively. Last year Rugers lost this game 24-17 and I'm expecting a similar final here as well. Lastly not that Rutger is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 after playing two straight conference games, while Indiana is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten after one or more consecutive victories ATS (lost 40-31 to MSU two weeks ago, but easily covered with the large spread.) The stage is set for a more competitive battle than what this line would suggest.

9* PLAY-BOOK on Rutgers.

The set-up: Purdue is only 1-4 and it's off a big loss to Penn State. It's now or never for the Boilermakers if they have any shot at a late Bowl push. Maryland's been all over the place with its consistency this year, but it enters at 3-2. The Terps hammered the Orange 63-20, but since then they lost to Temple and then got destroyed 59-0 by Penn State. Maryland then responded with a 48-7 victory over a hurting Rutgers team. UPDATE: a big blow to Maryland today is that starting QB Josh Jackson is out with a high ankle sprain and back up Tyrell Pigrome is in.

The pick: Jeff Brohm is a great coach and the Boilermakers were supposed to be better than this this year. But here we are. Jake Plummer suffered seven sacks last week vs. the Nittany Lions, but he definitely catches a break at home this weekend. Note as well that Maryland is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 road games, while Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six after two or more conseuctive SU losses. The outright is possible obviously, but let's great the points.

9* SITUATIONAL SMOKE-JOB on Purdue. 

The set-up: Oregon is 4-1 and Colorado is 3-2. This is a big mid-season game for both Pac 12 Schools and because of that, I'm expecting more of a wide-open shootout. Colorado lost to Arizona last weekend, but it has a come from behind win over Nebraska and an upset road victory over Arizona State so far. The Ducks have looked great despite a collapse vs. Auburn in their opener, relling off four straight victories. This game features two of the best QB's in the conference and I believe they'll be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. 

The pick: The Buffs' Steven Montez is completing 67 percent of his passes this year and averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Montez will be given the green light early and often here as Colorado's secondary is terrible. And that's good news for Oregon' QB Justin Herbert, as the Buffs are allowing 9.39 yards per attempt. The visitors have no choice but to try and keep pace. I think from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it.

10* play on the OVER Colorado/Oregon.

The set-up: This is a "must win" game for Colorado State if it plans to have any shot at a bowl berth at the end of the season. The Rams come to town off a poor 24-10 home loss to SDSU. New Mexico State enters having lost two straight, most recently a 32-21 setback to San Jose State. 

The pick: The Rams allow 36.5 PPG, but the Lobos concede 39.6. Colorado State has a decent QB in Patrick O' Brien, while New Mexico's offense is a complete disaster. Lobos' RB Ahmari Davis can't get the job done by himself today and I believe the home side is going to fade down the stretch. Note that the Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six following SU loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a double-digit loss at home. Meanwhile, the putrid Lobos are 0-5 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive victory for CSU.

8* play on Colorado State.

The set-up: I think rest leads to rust for 4-1 Virginia, which had its bye week last weekend after its loss to Notre Dame. Miami Florida comes in off a 42-35 shootout loss to Virginia Tech. Note as well that this is a big time revnege game for the Hurricanes after the Hoos beat Miami 16-13 in Charlottesville. Virginia' QB Bryce Perkins was sacked eight times by the Irish and I believe the pivot will have his hands full again here as well. 

The pick: This has essentially turned into a "must win" game for 2-3 Miami, which his 0-3 vs. Power 5 programs. Yes Miami spotted VT a 28-0 lead, but after that the Hurricanes completely outplayed the Hokies in last week's setback. Despite giving up 42 points to Tech (from five turnovers from the offense), the Hurricanes are STILL only allowing 21.2 PPG. Note as well that Virginia is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. teams with losing records, while Miami Florida is 3-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. I think the hungrier/desperate revenge-minded home-side delivers the goods.

10* play on Miami Florida.

The set-up: Clearly I'm not calling for the outright victory. New York has several injuries and is a big underdog for a reason. The Patriots and Tom Brady continue to roll and come into this one undefeated. New England's defense is dominating as well. I simply feel though that the Pats are going to get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent today, leaving the backdoor open just enough to allow the hungry visiting side to sneak in down the stretch. The Giants had their two-game win streak snapped in last week's 28-10 home loss to the Vikes, while the Pats enter off a 33-7 road win over the Skins. 

The pick: Daniel Jones is no Brady, but he's been a lot better than Eli Manning (760 yards, four TD's and three INT's.) Brady had 348 yards, three TD's and an INT last week, but he was also sacked four times. While the Giants offense is banged up, the defense is actually a strenght of the team now (13 sacks and five INT's.) With the Jets up next weekend, I think the Patriots come out and get caught looking ahead to that one as well. As stated off the top, clearly I'm not calling for the outright win, but I do expect a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Giants.

The set-up: Both teams are 3-2. Both are 0-1 in ACC action. Both are also coming out of their respective bye weeks. Syracuse is led by QB Tommy DeVito, who has 1,234 passing yards and 11 TD's (eight in the last two games.) The Orange defense has been decent, having posted 12 forced turnovers.  

The pick: NC State comes out of its bye week with a new face under center in Bailey Hockman, who is a four star FSU transfer. For his career he's 28 of 50 for 255 yards, one TD and one INT. Also note that the Wolf Pack will be without RB Ricky Person, as well as OT Justin Witt. Take it for what you will as well, but NC State is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records, while the Orange are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 or more points in their previous game. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but grab as many points as you can in the end.

10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse.

The set-up: Appalachian State is 4-0, while Louisiana Lafayette is 4-1. The Mountaineers were 11-2 last year and they'd go on to beat these very Rajin Cajuns in the Conference Championship game. Louisiana State's only loss came against Mississippi State.  App State QB Zac Thomas has been great for the undefeated Mountaineers, but the questions mark remain on the defensive side of the ball. If the Mountaineers have any hopes of progressing to a NY6 contest, then clearly they're going to have to get it figured out on that side of things. The Cajuns have been spectacular running the football though, so the home side will be sticking to its strength while on offense obviously. App State's strength on the defensive side is its run defense, which allows only 165 yards per game. 

The pick: Both teams have had extra time off to heal up and I believe this is going to be a battle until the final whistle. Additionally note that App State has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten following a cover as a double digit favorite, while LA Lafayette has seen the total go under in four of its last five after two or more SU victories. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL BUTT WHOOPIN on the UNDER App State/Lafayette.

TThe set-up: The Browns hit the West Coast looking to pull off the slight upset and in my opinion, they definitely have a legitimate shot at doing just that. The 49ers are 3-0, but they've been off since a win over the Steelers in Week 3. Cleveland is 2-2 and it enters off its best performance of the sason, smashing the Ravens 40-25. It took a few games for the Browns' offense to find its footing, but I have no reason not to believe that it can't continue to progress each week. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb had 165 yards and three TD's, while QB Baker Mayfield had 342 passing yards and a TD.

The pick: Jimmy Garapollo had 277 yards passing, a TD and an INT in his victory over the lowly Steelers, but note that the Browns concede just 215.2 YPG through the air. Additionally note that San Fran is a terrible 0-6 ATS in its last six following its bye week, while the Browns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road game vs. a team with a winnng home record. Grab the points.

10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the Cleveland Browns

The set-up: The Colts are 2-2 and the Chiefs are 4-0. KC managed a 34-30 road win in Detroit last time out, while Indianapolis got caught looking ahead to this game after last week’s upset loss at home to the Raiders. I think a similar thing is going to happen here to the now content home side and while I’m not predicting any outright upsets or anything, I do think that the Chiefs come out and try to “control” this one, rather than run their opponent off the field with a frantic pace from start to finish. And clearly Jacoby Brissett and company can’t turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to beat the high-flying Chiefs at their own style of game. Instead, the visitors will also definitely be out to “control” this contest while on offense. So from an overall situational stand point, there’s no question non my mind that this one sets up as more of a defensive chess match, than a wide open shootout. 

The pick: However also note that Indy has seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 19 after one or more SU losses, while KC has seen the total dip under the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite of ten points or more. This number is a tad high.

10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Colts/Chiefs.

The set-up: Both teams enter off their first losses of the year. Green Bay has had some extra time off to prepare for this one though after playing on Thursday night Football. Green Bay had a shot at beating the Eagles, but QB Aaron Rodgers threw an INT on the three-yard line (lost 34-27.) You can’t win them all though, but the good news for Packers fans is that the defense has so far been great, ranked seventh in the league in allowing only 17.2 PPG (last year the defense allowed 25 per contest.) 

The pick: The Cowboys looked pretty ordinary in their 12-10 loss on the road in New Orleans vs. a Drew Brees-less Saints side. I’ll argue that the Cowboys are 3-1 right now because of a weak schedule. Also note that the Cowboys took a major hit on the injury front by losing their two best offensive lineman in Zack Martin and Tyron Smith (both questionable this weekend.) Green Bay is 3-1 ATS in its last four after playing on a Thursday game, while Dallas is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 14 points or less in its previous game. I’m grabbing the points.

9* SITUATIONAL ATS SMOKE-JOB on the Green Bay Packers.

The set-up: This is a big game for both division rivals. The Ravens are 2-2 and the Steelers are 1-3. Baltimore enters off a loss to the Browns, while the Steelers enter off a 27-3 home win over the Bengals. I think that Baltimore is the much more focused side today though after losing two straight, while everything points to an immediate return to mediocrity for the Steelers in my opinion. 

The pick: Pittsburgh QB Mason Rudolph did enough to earn the win vs. the lowly Bengals last week and RB James Conner also had a big night statistically, but previous to that each had struggled up to that point. And now they face a veteran Ravens defense which is playing with a chip on its shoulder. Note that Pitts is just 2-7-1 ATS in its last ten Sunday following a MNF contest, while Baltimore is a sharp 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road. Lay the points.

8* EARLY DESTRUCTION on the Baltimore Ravens.

The set-up: The Raiders continue their five week road journey with a “home” game in London England vs. the Bears today. After winning three straight, I think the Bears’ chemistry takes a hit here with the jump across the pond. It’s not going to be easy on the Raiders obviously either, but at 2-2 the team can’t afford to look past the 3-1 Bears today. Also note that two of Chicago’s last three victories have come over the Broncos and Redskins. Last week Chicago held on for a 16-6 win over the Vikings. 

The pick: A big blow to the Bears as well is the loss of starting QB Mitchell Trubisky to injury, meaning that Chase Daniel will make his fifth start on Saturday. The Raiders looked a lot better in their 31-24 win over the surging Colts on the road last weekend I don’t see any reason not to think that the team can’t build off that performance. Oakland QB Derek Carr was 23 of 31 for 189 yards and two TD’s and I expect the veteran to push the pace early. Everything points to a letdown here for the Bears in my opinion. That said, let’s grab the points.

9* SUPER SHOCKER on the Oakland Raiders.

The set-up: The Cardinals are 0-3 and the Bengals are 0-4. Both teams have an ultra slim shot at even making the playoffs after their respective poor starts, but I still think that a healthy Cardinals team has much more in the tank than their reeling opponent. Arizona has played some incredibly difficult teams to open the year and it’s remained/looked competitive. The Bengals have been a train wreck and Cards’ QB Kyler Murray will finally have time to operate this afternoon. 

The pick: The Bengals lost 27-3 to the Steelers on Monday Night Football, as veteran QB Andy Dalton was 21 of 27 for 171 yards, zero TD’s, one INT and eight sacks. Note that Cincinnati is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while the Cards a solid 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road contests. Grab the points.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Arizona Cardinals.

The set-up: Washington is 4-1 and Stanford is 2-3. The Huskies only loss cam to Cal in Week 2. Last week the Huskies beat USC, but QB Jacob Eason was only 16 of 26 for 180 yards and no TD’s. Stanford and head coach David Shaw have an uncharacteristically difficult start to the season, but they come in off a solid 31-28 Pac 12 win over Oregon State and I think the home side carries that momentum over here:

“The last three weeks have been tough,” said Shaw recently. “They’ve been really tough. We played against really good teams two of them on the road in very difficult environments.”

The pick: Stanford backup QB David Mills replaced KJ Costello, who has a thumb injury, and he went 18 for 25 for 245 yards and three TD’s last week. Look for this steadily improving Cardinal side to keep this one closer than what this spread would suggest. 

10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford.

The set-up: It’s No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 25 Michigan State and I’m expecting a hard-hitting, low-scoring battle until the end today. MSU is 4-1 and 2-0 in conference, while Ohio State is 4-0 and 2-0 in Big Ten play. While Ohio State has looked solid, MSU has some question marks surrounding it after losing at home to Arizona State and then barely holing on for the win vs. Indiana last weekend. The Buckeyes come into this one after a solid 48-7 win over Nebraska. 

The pick: MSU averages 31 PPG, but its strength is on the defensive side where it allows only 15. Ohio State has averaged 52 PPG, while allowing just 8.6. Look for each team to try and control this one while on offense as they look to limit mistakes. I expect these top notch defenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. 

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the UNDER MSU/Ohio State.

The set-up: Outright victory? Of course not. But I do think that the 4-0 Penn State Lions get caught “looking past” their lowly 1-3 opponent. The Boilermakers have struggled to this point. While they haven’t played since 2016, I still think its worthy to point out that Purdue has lost eight straight in the series. After smashing Maryland 59-0 last weekend, would anyone fault the Nittany Lions for having a bit of a mental lapse vs. Purdue at home? Purdue won’t be going down without a fight, last week it fell 38-31 to Minnesota. 

The pick: From an overall “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up great for the hungry Boilermakers. Clearly the Nittany Lions are the “better” team, but I think this is a classic “trap.” Also note that Purdue is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while Penn State is only 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points.

8* pick on Purdue.

The set-up: Obviously the outright upset isn’t out of the question, but in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last. Both Tulane and Army are 3-1. Tulane though I think is set up for a letdown here after its emotional come from behind win at home over Houston last weekend (was down 28-7 in the second half and it was decide by a 53 yard TD strike from QB Justin McMillan to WR Jalen McCleskey as time wound off the clock in regulation.) Can anyone say “letdown spot?” Army enters off back-to-back wins, but won’t be taking anything for granted here after demolishing the Morgan State Bears last weekend, behind a career-best day from RB Connor Slomka. 

The pick: Tulane’s offense is going to be put to the test here vs. Army’s 15th ranked overall defense which concedes 16.3 PPG. Army is a sharp 4-0-1 ATS in its last five following a bye week, while Tulane is a poor 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with a winning home record. For all the reasons listed above, I’m on the Golden Knights.

8* pick on Army.

The set-up: I’m of course not calling for the outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. More than anything though, I think the Badgers get caught “looking past” their final non-conference opponent of the season this afternoon. Two weeks ago the Golden Flashes smashed Bowling Green 62-20 and in that contest QB Dustin Crum was 26 of 31 for 310 yards and three TD’s. Wisconsin followed up a statement win over No. 19 Michigan by pulling away for a lacklustre 24-15 victory over Northwestern. 

The pick: Kent State is a sharp 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog of 21.5 or more points, while Wisconsin is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points. This spread is just a little large. Grab the points.

8* pick on Kent State.

The set-up: Iowa is 4-0, while Michigan is 3-1. The Hawkeyes demolished MTSU 48-3 last weekend, while Michigan rebounded from its first loss to smash Rutgers 52-0 last Saturday. This is an ultra important game for both teams and as such, I believe it’s going to be decided by whichever of them has their hands on the ball last. Iowa QB Nate Stanley had 965 passing yards and eight TD’s so far this year and his defense is allowing only 78 rushing yards per game. Michigan dominated last weekend because of its run game, but clearly that strategy isn’t going to work this weekend. 

The pick: The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after playing a home game, while the Wolverines are a terrible 3-6 ATS in their last nine after scoring 37 points or more in their last game. While I do think the outright is possible, in the end I’ll recommend to grab the points. 

8* pick on Iowa.

The set-up: Both teams enter at 1-3. USF has lost two two top 25 teams in Wisconsin and SMU by a margin of 38 points. The Huskies have lost to Illinois, Indiana and UCF by an average mating of 26 points. Both teams have similar offensive and defensive numbers, which makes the home field advantage that much more important for bettors in my opinion. 

The pick: USF starting QB Blake Barnett is listed as questionable as well. Additionally note that USF is just 6-12 ATS in its last 18 as a favorite, while UConn is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight losses by 21 points or more. I’m grabbing all these points.

8* pick on UConn.

The set-up: This is a big Mountain West Conference matchup, as both teams come in at 2-2. San Jose State already suffered a conference loss, falling 41-24 to the Air Force Falcons last week, while this will be New Mexico’s conference opener. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Lobos have to be liking their chances at an upset today, as the last time these teams met, New Mexico pulled way for the 48-41 victory. New Mexico comes in hungry as well after last week’s loss to Liberty. San Jose State averages just 25.1 PPG and New Mexico looked a lot better defensively last week, allowing only 17 points in the setback to Liberty. The Lobos have a QB issue, with Tevaka Tuioti and Sheriron Jones splitting time after the starter went down win injury in Week 1. 

The pick: San Jose State somehow managed a win on the road vs. Arkansas and QB Josh Love is a clear strength of the team. The Spartans though are an absolute disaster defensively, as the unit allows the 11th most yards in all of FBS college football at the moment. Note that New Mexico is 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing two straight non-conference games, while San Jose State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a favorite and only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 at home. Grab the points and expect a battle.

10* ULTIMATE SUPER SHOCKER on New Mexico.

The set-up: I think this is a great “situational” play. I’d consider myself primarily a “situational” handicapper. And that’s definitely the approach I take when looking at Over/unders in all sports. I do indeed feel this one sets up great as a lower-scoring defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. The short week isn’t going to help either team obviously. LA is coming off an atrocious loss to Tampa Bay at home, unable to slow down Jameis Winston and company defensively, while also failing completely on the offensive side. Note that Jared Goff threw three INT’s last week and the run game produced only 23 yards total. Goff threw the ball 62 times! If the Rams have any hopes of getting back on track, clearly they have to establish the run game. 

The pick: Seattle’s three wins have come against the Bengals, Steeler and Cardinals. Are the Rams better than these teams? Probably. Seattle had a complete meltdown at home to New Orleans two weeks ago, so clearly it won’t be looking past or taking anything for granted today facing co-division leading LA this evening. As stated off the top, from an overall “situational” stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up as a lower-scoring under. But note that the numbers/trends support our theory as well, as note that LA has seen the total dip under in 16 of its last 24 after allowing 40 points or more in its previous game, while Seattle has seen the total go under in four of its last five after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. With each team looking to establish the run while on offense and to limit its overall mistakes and when also taking into account these strong trends/stats, everything points to the under as the savvy call in this one.

10* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rams/Hawks.

The set-up: While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do definitely feel that the stage is set for a much closer battle than what this spread would suggest. ECU is coming off a 24-21 upset road victory over ODU and I believe the Pirates carry that momentum over here. Temple comes to town off a 24-2 win at home over Georgia Tech. Previous to that though the Owls were upset 38-22 on the road in Buffalo. 

The pick: ECU has won two in a row and three of its last four. The Pirates have been getting strong defensive play as well, allowing only 151.4 YPG, and note that ECU has had to face Navy as well this year. The Owls are a terrible 0-6 ATS in their last six as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while ECU is 5-1 ATS in its last six after playing a non-conference game. Grab the points and sit back and relax on this one.

10* NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK on East Carolina.

The set-up: I think this is a great situational play. The Bengals are 0-3 and the Steelers are 0-3. For all intents and purposes, these two teams are already planning ahead to next season. The Steelers looked horrible even before starting QB Ben Roethlisberger went down with injury. Last week Big Ben’s backup Mason Rudolph looked horrible against the 49ers and I don’t see anything changing here vs. the Bengals’ hungry defense. 

The pick: As mentioned off the top, even with Roethlisberger in the line-up, the Steelers’ offense looked poor. The Steelers are getting poor play from RB James Conner as well, who is averaging only 2.9 YPC. The Bengals almost beat the Seahawks and the Bills on the road (fumbles in the closing moments ruined the outright victory,) and it’s been because of their defensive play. I think both teams concentrate on the run as well while on offense as they try to control this contest and limit mistakes. Taking into account all of the above situational factors, I’m going to play the under.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the under Bengals/Steelers.

The set-up: I think the Bucs are going to have a hard time moving the ball vs. this improved Rams’ defensive front. The Bucs are 1-2 and on the ropes in a tough division, while the Rams are 3-0. LA’s offense has yet to get untracked though, as their win last week on Sunday Night was anything but spectacular vs. the Rams. LA’ QB Jared Goff is definitely suffering an early season letdown compared to last year’s numbers. Jameis Winston has been hit or miss early and I think his struggles on the road continues here. 

The pick: Tampa’s defense has been much better with Todd Bowles directing the unit and it’ll be looking to get after Goff early and often. In fact note that the Bucs have the league’s sack leader in Shaq Barrett. Also note that LA RB Todd Gurley continues to struggle with consistency as well after returning from injury late last year. This one has defensive battle written all over it in my opinion. 

10* NON-CONF TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the under Bucs/Rams.

The set-up: I simply don’t think the Dolphins are as bad as this spread would suggest (despite being 0-3 and their earlier results.) I also don’t think that the Chargers are nearly as good as what this spread would suggest. Especially on the road, a place where they’ve always had a difficult time. While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely feel that this spread is much too large. The Chargers come in off back-to-back losses of their own. Josh Rosen makes his second start as the starting QB for Miami and I think he’ll benefit from last week’s experience. 

The pick: LA won’t get RB Melvin Gordon back in the line-up until next week and while Austin Ekeler has been decent in a back-up role, I still think the visitors are stretched thin here. Also note that the Chargers are a poor 1-3 ATS in their last four as a favorite of ten points or more, while the Dolphins are 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Fish.

8* SUPER DOG DESTROYER on the Miami Dolphins.

The set-up: The Raiders beat the Broncos at home in Week 1, but they’ve since dropped two straight. So far Raiders’ QB Derek Carr has four TD’s and three INT’s. With an upcoming game in London England, the road ahead isn’t going to get any easier for Carr and company, who will clearly be given the green light from start to finish in this one. The Colts have done better than expected with Jacoby Brissett, who currently has 646 passing yards with seven TD’s and one INT. 

The pick: On paper the Colts are the better team. But the Raiders have talent and they’re definitely the “hungrier” dog in this fight. The Colts come in complacent in my opinion and note that they’re just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after two or more consecutive wins vs. the spread. The Raiders have struggled in most ATS categories the last few seasons, but note that they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 30 points or more in their previous outing. I’m banking on a “nail-biter.” Grab the points. 

8* UPSET SPECIAL on the Oakland Raiders.

The set-up: The Chiefs’ offense is fantastics, but I’m still uncertain about their defense. The Lions have been much better than expected this season (on both sides of the ball) and I think they will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Chiefs come to town content at 3-0 and off their 33-28 home win over the Ravens last Sunday. Patrick Mahomes now has 1,195 yards, ten TD’s and no INT’s this year. 

The pick: But I think Mahomes confidence gets the better of him today. The Lions are a dangerous non-conference opponent, especially at home and without question on the defensive side, holding teams to only 269.3 passing yards per game and only four TD’s over the first three contests. The Chiefs allow 395 total yards per game, including 258 through the air. Veteran Lions’ QB Matt Stafford has 831 passing yards with six TD’s and two INT’s. The Chiefs have a terrible run defense, so keep your eyes on Kerryon Johnson and CJ Anderson as well for the home side. This is a trap game for KC and I think it falls hook, line and sinker right into it. Grab the points.

9* PLAY-BOOK on the Detroit Lions. 

The set-up: Last year these team’s split two very close games which were decided by a combined five points. I don’t think anything will change this season either between these division rivals. The Ravens’ offense looks decent behind Lamar Jackson, who has 863 yards passing and seven TD’s. But the Ravens are in a letdown spot after their first loss of the year last week, falling 33-28 in Kansas City. Yes the Browns are only 1-2, but they’ve looked a lot better after their poor Week 1 performance/collapse vs. the Titans. Cleveland looked great last week I thought despite falling 20-13 at home to the high-powered Rams. Bayker Mayfield is under an extreme amount of pressure and while he did throw an INT on the four yard line with 33 seconds left, I think he continues to progress and gain confidence as the season progresses. This is a big game for Cleveland, as a win today propels them into a tie for the division lead. 

The pick: Cleveland’s offense is going to break out at some point this year and if not now, when? Cleveland’s defense is ranked 16th overall, allowing 22 PPG. The Ravens average 36 PPG and they concede 20. This isn’t going to be a cake-walk, but the Browns to have the talent in all three phases to hang with the Ravens and when you add on the desperation factor, I wouldn’t in fact be shocked by an outright upset. Note that the Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home and in their last four following a SU loss, while the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss and 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a SU loss. I’m grabbing the points.

10* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the Cleveland Browns.